WorldWideScience

Sample records for physics-based life prediction

  1. Physics-based Modeling Tools for Life Prediction and Durability Assessment of Advanced Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The technical objectives of this program are: (1) to develop a set of physics-based modeling tools to predict the initiation of hot corrosion and to address pit and...

  2. Physics based modeling of a series parallel battery pack for asymmetry analysis, predictive control and life extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesan, Nandhini; Basu, Suman; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Yeo, Taejung; Sohn, Dong Kee; Doo, Seokgwang

    2016-08-01

    Lithium-Ion batteries used for electric vehicle applications are subject to large currents and various operation conditions, making battery pack design and life extension a challenging problem. With increase in complexity, modeling and simulation can lead to insights that ensure optimal performance and life extension. In this manuscript, an electrochemical-thermal (ECT) coupled model for a 6 series × 5 parallel pack is developed for Li ion cells with NCA/C electrodes and validated against experimental data. Contribution of the cathode to overall degradation at various operating conditions is assessed. Pack asymmetry is analyzed from a design and an operational perspective. Design based asymmetry leads to a new approach of obtaining the individual cell responses of the pack from an average ECT output. Operational asymmetry is demonstrated in terms of effects of thermal gradients on cycle life, and an efficient model predictive control technique is developed. Concept of reconfigurable battery pack is studied using detailed simulations that can be used for effective monitoring and extension of battery pack life.

  3. Blind Test of Physics-Based Prediction of Protein Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shell, M. Scott; Ozkan, S. Banu; Voelz, Vincent; Wu, Guohong Albert; Dill, Ken A.

    2009-01-01

    We report here a multiprotein blind test of a computer method to predict native protein structures based solely on an all-atom physics-based force field. We use the AMBER 96 potential function with an implicit (GB/SA) model of solvation, combined with replica-exchange molecular-dynamics simulations. Coarse conformational sampling is performed using the zipping and assembly method (ZAM), an approach that is designed to mimic the putative physical routes of protein folding. ZAM was applied to the folding of six proteins, from 76 to 112 monomers in length, in CASP7, a community-wide blind test of protein structure prediction. Because these predictions have about the same level of accuracy as typical bioinformatics methods, and do not utilize information from databases of known native structures, this work opens up the possibility of predicting the structures of membrane proteins, synthetic peptides, or other foldable polymers, for which there is little prior knowledge of native structures. This approach may also be useful for predicting physical protein folding routes, non-native conformations, and other physical properties from amino acid sequences. PMID:19186130

  4. Development of a Physically-Based Methodology for Predicting Material Variability in Fatigue Crack Initiation and Growth Response

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chan, Kwai

    2004-01-01

    ... of aerospace structural alloys. In this three-year program, physics-based fatigue crack initiation and growth models were developed and integrated into a probabilistic micromechanical code for treating fatigue life variability...

  5. A Physics-Based Engineering Approach to Predict the Cross Section for Advanced SRAMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lei; Zhou, Wanting; Liu, Huihua

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents a physics-based engineering approach to estimate the heavy ion induced upset cross section for 6T SRAM cells from layout and technology parameters. The new approach calculates the effects of radiation with junction photocurrent, which is derived based on device physics. The new and simple approach handles the problem by using simple SPICE simulations. At first, the approach uses a standard SPICE program on a typical PC to predict the SPICE-simulated curve of the collected charge vs. its affected distance from the drain-body junction with the derived junction photocurrent. And then, the SPICE-simulated curve is used to calculate the heavy ion induced upset cross section with a simple model, which considers that the SEU cross section of a SRAM cell is more related to a “radius of influence” around a heavy ion strike than to the physical size of a diffusion node in the layout for advanced SRAMs in nano-scale process technologies. The calculated upset cross section based on this method is in good agreement with the test results for 6T SRAM cells processed using 90 nm process technology.

  6. Erosion prediction for alpine slopes: a symbiosis of remote sensing and a physical based erosion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Andreas; Neugirg, Fabian; Haas, Florian; Schindewolf, Marcus; Schmidt, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    As rainfall simulations represent an established tool for quantifying soil detachment on cultivated area in lowlands and low mountain ranges, they are rarely used on steep slopes high mountain ranges. Still this terrain represents productive sediment sources of high morphodynamic. A quantitative differentiation between gravitationally and fluvially relocated material reveals a major challenge in understanding erosion on steep slopes: does solifluction as a result of melting in spring or heavy convective rainstorms during summer cause the essential erosion processes? This paper aims to answer this question by separating gravitational mass movement (solifluction, landslides, mudflow and needle ice) and runoff-induced detachment. First simulated rainstorm experiments are used to assess the sediment production on bare soil on a strongly inclined plot (1 m², 42°) in the northern limestone Alps. Throughout precipitation experiments runoff and related suspended sediments were quantified. In order to enlarge slope length virtually to around 20 m a runoff feeding device is additionally implemented. Soil physical parameters were derived from on-site sampling. The generated data is introduced to the physically based and catchment-scaled erosion model EROSION 3D to upscale plot size to small watershed conditions. Thus infiltration, runoff, detachment, transport and finally deposition can be predicted for single rainstorm events and storm sequences. Secondly, in order to separate gravitational mass movements and water erosion, a LiDAR and structure-from-motion based monitoring approach is carried out to produce high-resolution digital elevation models. A time series analysis of detachment and deposition from different points in time is implemented. Absolute volume losses are then compared to sediment losses calculated by the erosion model as the latter only generates data that is connected to water induced hillside erosion. This methodology will be applied in other watersheds

  7. Physics-based Space Weather Forecasting in the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusano, K.

    2016-12-01

    Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) is a Japanese nation-wide research collaboration, which was recently launched. PSTEP aims to develop a synergistic interaction between predictive and scientific studies of the solar-terrestrial environment and to establish the basis for next-generation space weather forecasting using the state-of-the-art observation systems and the physics-based models. For this project, we coordinate the four research groups, which develop (1) the integration of space weather forecast system, (2) the physics-based solar storm prediction, (3) the predictive models of magnetosphere and ionosphere dynamics, and (4) the model of solar cycle activity and its impact on climate, respectively. In this project, we will build the coordinated physics-based model to answer the fundamental questions concerning the onset of solar eruptions and the mechanism for radiation belt dynamics in the Earth's magnetosphere. In this paper, we will show the strategy of PSTEP, and discuss about the role and prospect of the physics-based space weather forecasting system being developed by PSTEP.

  8. Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

  9. Prediction of shallow landslide occurrence: Validation of a physically-based approach through a real case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilirò, Luca; Montrasio, Lorella; Scarascia Mugnozza, Gabriele

    2016-11-01

    In recent years, physically-based numerical models have frequently been used in the framework of early-warning systems devoted to rainfall-induced landslide hazard monitoring and mitigation. For this reason, in this work we describe the potential of SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction), a simplified physically-based model for the analysis of shallow landslide occurrence. In order to test the reliability of this model, a back analysis of recent landslide events occurred in the study area (located SW of Messina, northeastern Sicily, Italy) on October 1st, 2009 was performed. The simulation results have been compared with those obtained for the same event by using TRIGRS, another well-established model for shallow landslide prediction. Afterwards, a simulation over a 2-year span period has been performed for the same area, with the aim of evaluating the performance of SLIP as early warning tool. The results confirm the good predictive capability of the model, both in terms of spatial and temporal prediction of the instability phenomena. For this reason, we recommend an operating procedure for the real-time definition of shallow landslide triggering scenarios at the catchment scale, which is based on the use of SLIP calibrated through a specific multi-methodological approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. UNRES server for physics-based coarse-grained simulations and prediction of protein structure, dynamics and thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czaplewski, Cezary; Karczynska, Agnieszka; Sieradzan, Adam K; Liwo, Adam

    2018-04-30

    A server implementation of the UNRES package (http://www.unres.pl) for coarse-grained simulations of protein structures with the physics-based UNRES model, coined a name UNRES server, is presented. In contrast to most of the protein coarse-grained models, owing to its physics-based origin, the UNRES force field can be used in simulations, including those aimed at protein-structure prediction, without ancillary information from structural databases; however, the implementation includes the possibility of using restraints. Local energy minimization, canonical molecular dynamics simulations, replica exchange and multiplexed replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations can be run with the current UNRES server; the latter are suitable for protein-structure prediction. The user-supplied input includes protein sequence and, optionally, restraints from secondary-structure prediction or small x-ray scattering data, and simulation type and parameters which are selected or typed in. Oligomeric proteins, as well as those containing D-amino-acid residues and disulfide links can be treated. The output is displayed graphically (minimized structures, trajectories, final models, analysis of trajectory/ensembles); however, all output files can be downloaded by the user. The UNRES server can be freely accessed at http://unres-server.chem.ug.edu.pl.

  11. Fatigue life prediction in composites

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Huston, RJ

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the relatively large number of possible failure mechanisms in fibre reinforced composite materials, the prediction of fatigue life in a component is not a simple process. Several mathematical and statistical models have been proposed...

  12. A Physically-based Model for Predicting Soil Moisture Dynamics in Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalin, L.; Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Hantush, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    Wetlands are promoted as green infrastructures because of their characteristics in retaining and filtering water. In wetlands going through wetting/drying cycles, simulation of nutrient processes and biogeochemical reactions in both ponded and unsaturated wetland zones are needed for an improved understanding of wetland functioning for water quality improvement. The physically-based WetQual model can simulate the hydrology and nutrient and sediment cycles in natural and constructed wetlands. WetQual can be used in continuously flooded environments or in wetlands going through wetting/drying cycles. Currently, WetQual relies on 1-D Richards' Equation (RE) to simulate soil moisture dynamics in unponded parts of the wetlands. This is unnecessarily complex because as a lumped model, WetQual only requires average moisture contents. In this paper, we present a depth-averaged solution to the 1-D RE, called DARE, to simulate the average moisture content of the root zone and the layer below it in unsaturated parts of wetlands. DARE converts the PDE of the RE into ODEs; thus it is computationally more efficient. This method takes into account the plant uptake and groundwater table fluctuations, which are commonly overlooked in hydrologic models dealing with wetlands undergoing wetting and drying cycles. For verification purposes, DARE solutions were compared to Hydrus-1D model, which uses full RE, under gravity drainage only assumption and full-term equations. Model verifications were carried out under various top boundary conditions: no ponding at all, ponding at some point, and no rain. Through hypothetical scenarios and actual atmospheric data, the utility of DARE was demonstrated. Gravity drainage version of DARE worked well in comparison to Hydrus-1D, under all the assigned atmospheric boundary conditions of varying fluxes for all examined soil types (sandy loam, loam, sandy clay loam, and sand). The full-term version of DARE offers reasonable accuracy compared to the

  13. Predicting the Water Level Fluctuation in an Alpine Lake Using Physically Based, Artificial Neural Network, and Time Series Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chieh Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of water level fluctuation is important in lake management due to its significant impacts in various aspects. This study utilizes four model approaches to predict water levels in the Yuan-Yang Lake (YYL in Taiwan: a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an artificial neural network (ANN model (back propagation neural network, BPNN, a time series forecasting (autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs, ARMAX model, and a combined hydrodynamic and ANN model. Particularly, the black-box ANN model and physically based hydrodynamic model are coupled to more accurately predict water level fluctuation. Hourly water level data (a total of 7296 observations was collected for model calibration (training and validation. Three statistical indicators (mean absolute error, root mean square error, and coefficient of correlation were adopted to evaluate model performances. Overall, the results demonstrate that the hydrodynamic model can satisfactorily predict hourly water level changes during the calibration stage but not for the validation stage. The ANN and ARMAX models better predict the water level than the hydrodynamic model does. Meanwhile, the results from an ANN model are superior to those by the ARMAX model in both training and validation phases. The novel proposed concept using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model in conjunction with an ANN model has clearly shown the improved prediction accuracy for the water level fluctuation.

  14. A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems.

  15. Prediction of power ramp defects - development of a physically based model and evaluation of existing criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notley, M.J.F.; Kohn, E.

    2001-01-01

    Power-ramp induced fuel failure is not a problem in the present CANDU reactors. The current empirical correlations that define probability of failure do not agree one-with-another and do not allow extrapolation outside the database. A new methodology, based on physical processes, is presented and compared to data. The methodology calculates the pre-ramp sheath stress and the incremental stress during the ramp, and whether or not there is a defect is predicted based on a failure threshold stress. The proposed model confirms the deductions made by daSilva from an empirical 'fit' to data from the 1988 PNGS power ramp failure incident. It is recommended that daSilvas' correlation be used as reference for OPG (Ontario Power Generation) power reactor fuel, and that extrapolation be performed using the new model. (author)

  16. Physics-Based Predictions for Coherent Change Detection Using X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Preiss

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical model is developed to describe the interferometric coherency between pairs of SAR images of rough soil surfaces. The model is derived using a dyadic form for surface reflectivity in the Kirchhoff approximation. This permits the combination of Kirchhoff theory and spotlight synthetic aperture radar (SAR image formation theory. The resulting model is used to describe the interferometric coherency between pairs of SAR images of rough soil surfaces. The theoretical model is applied to SAR images formed before and after surface changes observed by a repeat-pass SAR system. The change in surface associated with a tyre track following vehicle passage is modelled and SAR coherency estimates are obtained. Predicted coherency distributions for both the change and no-change scenarios are used to estimate receiver operator curves for the detection of the changes using a high-resolution, X-band SAR system.

  17. A Simple Physics-Based Model Predicts Oil Production from Thousands of Horizontal Wells in Shales

    KAUST Repository

    Patzek, Tadeusz

    2017-10-18

    Over the last six years, crude oil production from shales and ultra-deep GOM in the United States has accounted for most of the net increase of global oil production. Therefore, it is important to have a good predictive model of oil production and ultimate recovery in shale wells. Here we introduce a simple model of producing oil and solution gas from the horizontal hydrofractured wells. This model is consistent with the basic physics and geometry of the extraction process. We then apply our model thousands of wells in the Eagle Ford shale. Given well geometry, we obtain a one-dimensional nonlinear pressure diffusion equation that governs flow of mostly oil and solution gas. In principle, solutions of this equation depend on many parameters, but in practice and within a given oil shale, all but three can be fixed at typical values, leading to a nonlinear diffusion problem we linearize and solve exactly with a scaling

  18. Physics-based process modeling, reliability prediction, and design guidelines for flip-chip devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaelides, Stylianos

    Flip Chip on Board (FCOB) and Chip-Scale Packages (CSPs) are relatively new technologies that are being increasingly used in the electronic packaging industry. Compared to the more widely used face-up wirebonding and TAB technologies, flip-chips and most CSPs provide the shortest possible leads, lower inductance, higher frequency, better noise control, higher density, greater input/output (I/O), smaller device footprint and lower profile. However, due to the short history and due to the introduction of several new electronic materials, designs, and processing conditions, very limited work has been done to understand the role of material, geometry, and processing parameters on the reliability of flip-chip devices. Also, with the ever-increasing complexity of semiconductor packages and with the continued reduction in time to market, it is too costly to wait until the later stages of design and testing to discover that the reliability is not satisfactory. The objective of the research is to develop integrated process-reliability models that will take into consideration the mechanics of assembly processes to be able to determine the reliability of face-down devices under thermal cycling and long-term temperature dwelling. The models incorporate the time and temperature-dependent constitutive behavior of various materials in the assembly to be able to predict failure modes such as die cracking and solder cracking. In addition, the models account for process-induced defects and macro-micro features of the assembly. Creep-fatigue and continuum-damage mechanics models for the solder interconnects and fracture-mechanics models for the die have been used to determine the reliability of the devices. The results predicted by the models have been successfully validated against experimental data. The validated models have been used to develop qualification and test procedures for implantable medical devices. In addition, the research has helped develop innovative face

  19. Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Raia

    2014-03-01

    of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, that is, the Frontignano (Italy and the Mukilteo (USA areas. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the message passing interface (MPI on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

  20. Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probablistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raia, S.; Alvioli, M.; Rossi, M.; Baum, R.L.; Godt, J.W.; Guzzetti, F.

    2013-01-01

    are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

  1. A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO 2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO 2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO 2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO 2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO 2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. River channel and bar patterns explained and predicted by an empirical and a physics-based method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleinhans, M.G.; Berg, J.H. van den

    2011-01-01

    Our objective is to understand general causes of different river channel patterns. In this paper we compare an empirical stream power-based classification and a physics-based bar pattern predictor. We present a careful selection of data from the literature that contains rivers with discharge and

  3. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  4. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2016-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable

  5. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  6. Integrated Physics-based Modeling and Experiments for Improved Prediction of Combustion Dynamics in Low-Emission Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, William E.; Lucht, Robert P.; Mongia, Hukam

    2015-01-01

    Concurrent simulation and experiment was undertaken to assess the ability of a hybrid RANS-LES model to predict combustion dynamics in a single-element lean direct-inject (LDI) combustor showing self-excited instabilities. High frequency pressure modes produced by Fourier and modal decomposition analysis were compared quantitatively, and trends with equivalence ratio and inlet temperature were compared qualitatively. High frequency OH PLIF and PIV measurements were also taken. Submodels for chemical kinetics and primary and secondary atomization were also tested against the measured behavior. For a point-wise comparison, the amplitudes matched within a factor of two. The dependence on equivalence ratio was matched. Preliminary results from simulation using an 18-reaction kinetics model indicated instability amplitudes closer to measurement. Analysis of the simulations suggested a band of modes around 1400 Hz were due to a vortex bubble breakdown and a band of modes around 6 kHz were due to a precessing vortex core hydrodynamic instability. The primary needs are directly coupled and validated ab initio models of the atomizer free surface flow and the primary atomization processes, and more detailed study of the coupling between the 3D swirling flow and the local thermoacoustics in the diverging venturi section.

  7. Using physics-based pose predictions and free energy perturbation calculations to predict binding poses and relative binding affinities for FXR ligands in the D3R Grand Challenge 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasiou, Christina; Vasilakaki, Sofia; Dellis, Dimitris; Cournia, Zoe

    2018-01-01

    Computer-aided drug design has become an integral part of drug discovery and development in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, and is nowadays extensively used in the lead identification and lead optimization phases. The drug design data resource (D3R) organizes challenges against blinded experimental data to prospectively test computational methodologies as an opportunity for improved methods and algorithms to emerge. We participated in Grand Challenge 2 to predict the crystallographic poses of 36 Farnesoid X Receptor (FXR)-bound ligands and the relative binding affinities for two designated subsets of 18 and 15 FXR-bound ligands. Here, we present our methodology for pose and affinity predictions and its evaluation after the release of the experimental data. For predicting the crystallographic poses, we used docking and physics-based pose prediction methods guided by the binding poses of native ligands. For FXR ligands with known chemotypes in the PDB, we accurately predicted their binding modes, while for those with unknown chemotypes the predictions were more challenging. Our group ranked #1st (based on the median RMSD) out of 46 groups, which submitted complete entries for the binding pose prediction challenge. For the relative binding affinity prediction challenge, we performed free energy perturbation (FEP) calculations coupled with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. FEP/MD calculations displayed a high success rate in identifying compounds with better or worse binding affinity than the reference (parent) compound. Our studies suggest that when ligands with chemical precedent are available in the literature, binding pose predictions using docking and physics-based methods are reliable; however, predictions are challenging for ligands with completely unknown chemotypes. We also show that FEP/MD calculations hold predictive value and can nowadays be used in a high throughput mode in a lead optimization project provided that crystal structures of

  8. Prediction of thermal fatigue life of ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, N.; Kamigaito, O.

    1979-01-01

    On the assumption that the thermal fatigue life of ceramics is determined mainly by the duration over which a crack reaches a small critical length, a prediction of the life was made by application of fracture mechanics to ceramics based on subcritical crack growth. Approximated formulae were derived. Experimental examination showed that the formulae proved to be valid for glass, sintered mullite under moderate shock severity, and zirconia. Data given by other authors also prove their validity. The deviation of the life from the formulae for sintered mullite under a thermal shock of extremely low severty, suggests that a certain mechanism, for example strengthening, is needed to understand the life of the sintered mullite. (author)

  9. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  10. Predicting life-history adaptations to pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, L. [Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Animals may adapt to pollutant stress so that individuals from polluted environments are less susceptible than those from unpolluted environments. In addition to such direct adaptations, animals may respond to pollutant stress by life-history modifications; so-called indirect adaptations. This paper will demonstrate how, by combining life-history theory and toxicological data, it is possible to predict stress-induced alterations in reproductive output and offspring size. Pollutant-induced alterations in age-specific survival in favor of adults and reductions in juvenile growth, conditions are predicted to select for reduced investment in reproduction and the allocation of this investment into fewer, larger offspring. Field observations on the freshwater crustaceans, Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus pulex, support these predictions. Females from metal-polluted sites had lower investment in reproduction and produced larger offspring than females of the same species from unpolluted sites. Moreover, interpopulation differences in reproductive biology persisted in laboratory cultures indicating that they had a genetic basis and were therefore due to adaptation rather than acclimation. The general applicability of this approach will be considered.

  11. Solid-state lighting life prediction using extended Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Wei, Junchao [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Davis, Lynn [RTI International, Durham, NC (United States)

    2013-07-16

    -80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state has been described in state space form using the measurement of the feature vector, velocity of feature vector change and the acceleration of the feature vector change. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.

  12. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  13. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  14. Predicting the residual life of plant equipment - Why worry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaske, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    Predicting the residual life of plant equipment that has been in service for 20 to 30 years or more is a major concern of many industries. This paper reviews the reasons for increased concern for residual-life assessment and the general procedures used in performing such assessments. Some examples and case histories illustrating procedures for assessing remaining service life are discussed. Areas where developments are needed to improve the technology for remaining-life estimation are pointed out. Then, some of the critical issues involved in residual-life assessment are identified. Finally, the future role of residual-life prediction is addressed

  15. Life Prediction of Large Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Active and Passive Balancing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Ying [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zane, Regan [Utah State University; Anderson, Dyche [Ford Motor Company

    2017-07-03

    Lithium-ion battery packs take a major part of large-scale stationary energy storage systems. One challenge in reducing battery pack cost is to reduce pack size without compromising pack service performance and lifespan. Prognostic life model can be a powerful tool to handle the state of health (SOH) estimate and enable active life balancing strategy to reduce cell imbalance and extend pack life. This work proposed a life model using both empirical and physical-based approaches. The life model described the compounding effect of different degradations on the entire cell with an empirical model. Then its lower-level submodels considered the complex physical links between testing statistics (state of charge level, C-rate level, duty cycles, etc.) and the degradation reaction rates with respect to specific aging mechanisms. The hybrid approach made the life model generic, robust and stable regardless of battery chemistry and application usage. The model was validated with a custom pack with both passive and active balancing systems implemented, which created four different aging paths in the pack. The life model successfully captured the aging trajectories of all four paths. The life model prediction errors on capacity fade and resistance growth were within +/-3% and +/-5% of the experiment measurements.

  16. Life prediction technology of structural materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagata, Norio

    1992-01-01

    There is empirically the time limit of use in all industrial plants and components. By defining the loss of functions as the expiration of life, if the forecast of life time or residual life of plants and components can be done, a very useful means becomes available for safety and economical efficiency. The life of plants is controlled by the occurrence and extension of defects in materials, and by the life of the material which is placed under most severe condition. Such severe condition is the environment of use itself with high temperature, corrosive environment, load, vibration and so on. The forecast of material life is to quantitatively grasp the damage behavior of materials under such condition, and to carry out the time control of the functions of plants by defect control. The time dependence of material damage such as fatigue damage, creep damage and corrosion damage is discussed. The forecast of material life by empirical knowledge and theoretical inference and the forecast of residual life are explained. Finally, the forecast of the life time of light water reactors is described as those constructed in initial period approach their design life. (K.I.)

  17. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction for several solders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shengmin

    Since solder connections operate at high homologous temperature, solders are high temperature materials. This feature makes their mechanical behavior and fatigue phenomena unique. Based on experimental findings, a physical damage mechanism is introduced for solders. The mechanism views the damage process as a series of independent local damage events characterized by the failure of individual grains, while the structural damage is the eventual percolation result of such local events. Fine's dislocation energy density concept and Mura's microcrack initiation theory are adopted to derive the fatigue formula for an individual grain. A physical damage metric is introduced to describe the material with damage. A unified creep and plasticity constitutive model is adopted to simulate the mechanical behavior of solders. The model is cast into a continuum damage mechanics framework to simulate material with damage. The model gives good agreement with the experimental results of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn and 96.5Sn-3.5Ag solders under uniaxial strain-controlled cyclic loading. The model is convenient for implementation into commercial computational packages. Also presented is a fatigue theory with its failure criterion for solders based on physical damage mechanism. By introducing grain orientation into the fatigue formula, an m-N curve (m is Schmid factor) at constant loading condition is suggested for fatigue of grains with different orientations. A solder structure is defined as fatigued when the damage metric reaches a critical threshold, since at this threshold the failed grains may form a cluster and percolate through the structure according to percolation theory. Fatigue data of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn solder bulk specimens under various uniaxial tension tests were analyzed. Results show that the theory gives consistent predictions under broad conditions, while inelastic strain theory does not. The theory is anisotropic with no size limitation to its application, which could be suitable for

  18. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  19. Residual life of technical systems; diagnosis, prediction and life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents and discusses research related to residual life of non-repairable and repairable technical systems. Diagnosis of systems and extension of residual life of technical systems are also presented and discussed. This paper concludes that research published describing determination and extension of residual life as well as methods for diagnosis of non-repairable and repairable technical systems, is somewhat limited. Many papers have a rather pragmatic approach. The authors only describe special cases from their own plant and do not provide any explanation of a more academical nature. The other papers are mainly describing very specific applications of statistical models, leaving the more general case out of consideration. One of the main results of this paper is to point out these facts, and thereby identify the need for future research in this area

  20. Predicting Battery Life for Electric UAVs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a novel battery health management technology for the new generation of electric unmanned aerial vehicles powered by long-life, high-density,...

  1. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N. E; Brockman, R. A; Buchanan, D. J; Hartman, G. A; Huston, A. L; Li, K; Porter, W. J

    2004-01-01

    Superalloys IN-100, Ren 88DT, Waspaloy, and titanium alloys were investigated. For life-limiting responses in superalloys, highly localized stress-deformation behaviors associated with both typical and unusual defects were developed...

  2. Actual service life prediction of building components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Niels-Jørgen; Brandt, Erik; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, sustainability and life cycle cost in the construction industry have been given great attention in many countries due to the heavy climatic and environmental impact from this sector. In Denmark, a sustainability certification scheme for buildings has been developed including....... Finally, it is discussed how to adjust the model for practical purposes, and a scheme for actual service life for selected building components important for analysis of sustainability is linked. The schemes are now being implemented as basis for sustainability certification of new buildings in Denmark....

  3. Life prediction of Ni-base superalloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mean stress exponent, n, and the mean activation energy for creep were calculated from the experimental results. The accelerated creep life of the alloy was evaluated by using iso-stress parametric equations and Monkman–Grant method. Keywords. ... This alloy is age-hardenable by a fine dispersion of γ par- ticles, which ...

  4. Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.

  5. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  6. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    OpenAIRE

    Ma Xiaobing; Zhang Yongbo

    2015-01-01

    An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life ...

  7. Computational thermofracture mechanics and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu Tairan

    1992-01-01

    This paper will present computational techniques used for the prediction of the thermofracture behaviour of structures subject to either monotonic or cyclic combined thermal and mechanical loadings. Two specific areas will be dealt with in the paper. (1) The Time-invariant thermofracture of leaking pipelines with non-uniform temperature fields; in this case, the induced non-uniform temperature fields near leaking cracks have shown to be significant. The severity of these temperature fields on the thermofracture behaviour of the pipeline will be demonstrated by a numerical example. (2) Thermomechanical creep fracture of structures: Recent developments, including those of the author's own work, on cyclic creep-fracture using damage theory will be presented. Long 'hold' and 'dwell' times, which occur in the actual operations of nuclear power plant components have been shown to have a significant effect on the overall creep-fracture behaviour of the material. Constitutive laws, which include most of these effects, have been incorporated into the existing TEPSAC code for the prediction of crack growth in solids under cyclic creep loadings. The effectiveness of using the damage parameters as fracture criteria, and the presence of plastic deformation in the overall results will be assessed. (orig.)

  8. Enhancing the Predicting Accuracy of the Water Stage Using a Physical-Based Model and an Artificial Neural Network-Genetic Algorithm in a River System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Cheng Liu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Accurate simulations of river stages during typhoon events are critically important for flood control and are necessary for disaster prevention and water resources management in Taiwan. This study applies two artificial neural network (ANN models, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN and genetic algorithm neural network (GANN techniques, to improve predictions from a one-dimensional flood routing hydrodynamic model regarding the water stages during typhoon events in the Danshuei River system in northern Taiwan. The hydrodynamic model is driven by freshwater discharges at the upstream boundary conditions and by the water levels at the downstream boundary condition. The model provides a sound physical basis for simulating water stages along the river. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model show that the model cannot reproduce the water stages at different stations during typhoon events for the model calibration and verification phases. The BPNN and GANN models can improve the simulated water stages compared with the performance of the hydrodynamic model. The GANN model satisfactorily predicts water stages during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and peak error compared with the simulated results at different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison of the simulated results shows that the GANN model can be successfully applied to predict the water stages of the Danshuei River system during typhoon events.

  9. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  10. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  11. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  12. Simulation work of fatigue life prediction of rubber automotive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samad, M S A; Ali, Aidy

    2010-01-01

    The usage of rubbers has always been so important, especially in automotive industries. Rubbers have a hyper elastic behaviour which is the ability to withstand very large strain without failure. The normal applications for rubbers are used for shock absorption, sound isolation and mounting. In this study, the predictions of fatigue life of an engine mount of rubber automotive components were presented. The finite element analysis was performed to predict the critical part and the strain output were incorporated into fatigue model for prediction. The predicted result shows agreement in term of failure location of rubber mount.

  13. Satellite Collision Modeling with Physics-Based Hydrocodes: Debris Generation Predictions of the Iridium-Cosmos Collision Event and Other Impact Events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Springer, H.K.; Miller, W.O.; Levatin, J.L.; Pertica, A.J.; Olivier, S.S.

    2010-01-01

    Satellite collision debris poses risks to existing space assets and future space missions. Predictive models of debris generated from these hypervelocity collisions are critical for developing accurate space situational awareness tools and effective mitigation strategies. Hypervelocity collisions involve complex phenomenon that spans several time- and length-scales. We have developed a satellite collision debris modeling approach consisting of a Lagrangian hydrocode enriched with smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH), advanced material failure models, detailed satellite mesh models, and massively parallel computers. These computational studies enable us to investigate the influence of satellite center-of-mass (CM) overlap and orientation, relative velocity, and material composition on the size, velocity, and material type distributions of collision debris. We have applied our debris modeling capability to the recent Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision event. While the relative velocity was well understood in this event, the degree of satellite CM overlap and orientation was ill-defined. In our simulations, we varied the collision CM overlap and orientation of the satellites from nearly maximum overlap to partial overlap on the outermost extents of the satellites (i.e, solar panels and gravity boom). As expected, we found that with increased satellite overlap, the overall debris cloud mass and momentum (transfer) increases, the average debris size decreases, and the debris velocity increases. The largest predicted debris can also provide insight into which satellite components were further removed from the impact location. A significant fraction of the momentum transfer is imparted to the smallest debris (< 1-5mm, dependent on mesh resolution), especially in large CM overlap simulations. While the inclusion of the smallest debris is critical to enforcing mass and momentum conservation in hydrocode simulations, there seems to be relatively little interest in their

  14. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of high temperature components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seifert, Thomas; Hartrott, Philipp von; Riedel, Hermann; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Inst. fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The aim of the work described in this paper is to provide a computational method for fatigue life prediction of high temperature components, in which the time and temperature dependent fatigue crack growth is a relevant damage mechanism. The fatigue life prediction is based on a law for microcrack growth and a fracture mechanics estimate of the cyclic crack tip opening displacement. In addition, a powerful model for nonisothermal cyclic plasticity is employed, and an efficient laboratory test procedure is proposed for the determination of the model parameters. The models are efficiently implemented into finite element programs and are used to predict the fatigue life of a cast iron exhaust manifold and a notch in the perimeter of a turbine rotor made of a ferritic/martensitic 10%-chromium steel. (orig.)

  15. Fatigue crack initiation and growth life prediction with statistical consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, J.D.; Choi, S.H.; Kwak, S.G.; Chun, K.O.

    1991-01-01

    Life prediction or residual life prediction of structures or machines is one of the most strongly world wide needed problems as requirement in the stage of slowly developing economy which comes after rapidly and highly developing stage. For the purpose of statistical life prediction, fatigue test was conducted under the 3 stress levels, and for each stress level, 20 specimens are used. The statistical properties of the crack growth parameter m and C in the fatigue crack growth law of da/dN = C(ΔK) m , and the relationship between m and C, and the statistical distribution pattern of fatigue crack initiation, growth and fracture lives can be obtained by experimental results

  16. Fracture Mechanics Prediction of Fatigue Life of Aluminum Highway Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rom, Søren; Agerskov, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations. The fati......Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations...... against fatigue in aluminum bridges, may give results which are unconservative. Furthermore, it was in both investigations found that the validity of the results obtained from Miner's rule will depend on the distribution of the load history in tension and compression....

  17. Physical bases of nuclear medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isabelle, D.B.; Ducassou, D.

    1975-01-01

    The physical bases of nuclear medicine are outlined in several chapters devoted successively to: atomic and nuclear structures; nuclear reactions; radioactiity laws; a study of different types of disintegration; the interactions of radiations with matter [fr

  18. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Xiaobing

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life test due to the time limitation. Therefore, most of the data presented to be high censored in high stress level and zero-failure data in low stress level. When using the traditional method for rupture life prediction, the results showed to be of lower confidence. In this study, the consistency of failure mechanism for carbon fiber and cylinder was analyzed firstly. According to the analysis result, the statistical test information of carbon fiber could be utilized for the accelerated model constitution. Then, rupture life prediction method for cylinder was proposed based on the accelerated life test data and carbon fiber test data. In this way, the life prediction accuracy of cylinder could be improved obviously, and the results showed that the accuracy of this method increased by 35%.

  19. A New Approach to Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Nucleation and Growth (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McClung, R. C; Francis, W. L; Hudak, S. J

    2006-01-01

    Prediction of total fatigue life in components is often performed by summing "initiation" and "propagation" life phases, where initiation life is based on stress-life or strain-life methods calibrated...

  20. The value of oxygen-isotope data and multiple discharge records in calibrating a fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff model (CRUM3) to improve predictive capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neill, Aaron; Reaney, Sim

    2015-04-01

    Fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff models attempt to capture some of the complexity of the runoff processes that operate within a catchment, and have been used to address a variety of issues including water quality and the effect of climate change on flood frequency. Two key issues are prevalent, however, which call into question the predictive capability of such models. The first is the issue of parameter equifinality which can be responsible for large amounts of uncertainty. The second is whether such models make the right predictions for the right reasons - are the processes operating within a catchment correctly represented, or do the predictive abilities of these models result only from the calibration process? The use of additional data sources, such as environmental tracers, has been shown to help address both of these issues, by allowing for multi-criteria model calibration to be undertaken, and by permitting a greater understanding of the processes operating in a catchment and hence a more thorough evaluation of how well catchment processes are represented in a model. Using discharge and oxygen-18 data sets, the ability of the fully-distributed, physically-based CRUM3 model to represent the runoff processes in three sub-catchments in Cumbria, NW England has been evaluated. These catchments (Morland, Dacre and Pow) are part of the of the River Eden demonstration test catchment project. The oxygen-18 data set was firstly used to derive transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water for each of the catchments to gain an integrated overview of the types of processes that were operating. A generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure was then used to calibrate the CRUM3 model for each catchment based on a single discharge data set from each catchment. Transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water obtained from the model using the top 100 behavioural parameter sets for each catchment were then compared to

  1. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper

  2. Innovative predictive maintenance concepts to improve life cycle management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinga, Tiedo

    2014-01-01

    For naval systems with typically long service lives, high sustainment costs and strict availability requirements, an effective and efficient life cycle management process is very important. In this paper four approaches are discussed to improve that process: physics of failure based predictive

  3. The life prediction study of Rokkasho reprocessing plant materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiuchi, K.; Yano, M.; Takizawa, M.; Shibata, S.

    1998-01-01

    The life prediction study of major equipment materials used in heavily corrosive nitric acid solutions of the RRP was carried out. The nitric acid recovery made of type 304ULC austenitic steel and the dissolver made of type 705 metallic zirconium are selected on the present study. This study is composed of major three programs, namely, the mock-up tests by small-sized equipments simulated to the practical design, laboratory tests for examining corrosion controlling factors by small specimens and to establish the data base system for the life prediction. Important parameters on this study was extracted with analyzing the past data of the life prediction on the Tokai reprocessing equipments. The mock-ups design was made by considering the quantitative evaluation of the most important parts on objective equipments, namely, heat conducting tubes in an acid recovery evaporator and a thermal jacket in a dissolver. From pre-examinations, the effects of radioactive species, nitric acid solution chemistry, the corrosion mechanisms were elucidated. Mock-up testing conditions corrosion monitoring methods and a data base concept for the the life prediction were selected from pre-examination data by referencing the plant operation planning. (author)

  4. Shelf Life Prediction for Canned Gudeg using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) Based on Arrhenius Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, R.; Rahayu NH, E.; Susanto, A.; Khasanah, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Gudeg is traditional food from Yogyakarta. It is consist of jackfruit, chicken, egg and coconut milk. Gudeg generally have a short shelf life. Canning or commercial sterilization is one way to extend the shelf life of gudeg. This aims of this research is to predict the shelf life of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg with Accelerated Shelf Life Test methods, Arrhenius model. Canned gudeg stored at three different temperature, there are 37, 50 and 60°C for two months. Measuring the number of Thio Barbituric Acid (TBA), as a critical aspect, were tested every 7 days. Arrhenius model approach is done with the equation order 0 and order 1. The analysis showed that the equation of order 0 can be used as an approach to estimating the shelf life of canned gudeg. The storage of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg at 30°C is predicted untill 21 months and 24 months for 25°C.

  5. Reinforcement Corrosion: Numerical Simulation and Service Life Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander

    defects and b) define the end of service life once reinforcement corrosion is initiated neglecting corrosion processes during the propagation stage. The goal of this work was to develop a framework for the service life prediction of reinforced concrete covering initiation and propagation of chloride......Modelling of deterioration processes in concrete structures plays an increasing role in the design of reinforced concrete structures. Large sums are spent every year to ensure the durability of concrete structures, especially towards reinforcement corrosion. Improved durability provides increased...... structural reliability, economical improvements in form of less need for maintenance and repair as well as increased sustainability due to an increased energy and resource efficiency. Several service life prediction models dealing with reinforcement corrosion in concrete structurescan be found...

  6. Methodology for formulating predictions of stress corrosion cracking life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, Kiyoshi; Hattori, Shigeo; Shindo, Takenori; Kuniya, Jiro

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for formulating predictions to evaluate the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) potential of each light-water reactor component, where an index is introduced as a life index or F index. The index denotes the SCC time ratio of a given SCC system to be evaluated against a reference SCC system. The life index is expressed by the products of several subdivided life indexes, which correspond to each SCC influencing factor. Each subdivided life index is constructed as a function containing the influencing factor variable, obtained by analyzing experimental SCC life data. The methodology was termed the subdivided factor method. Application of the life index to SCC life data and field data showed that it was effective for evaluating the SCC potential, i.e. the SCC life. Accordingly, the proposed methodology can potentially describe a phenomenon expressed by a function which consists of the variables of several influencing factors whether there are formulae which unite as a physical model or not. ((orig.))

  7. Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

    CERN Document Server

    Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

    2014-01-01

    In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

  8. Physics-Based Pneumatic Hammer Instability Model, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this project is to develop a physics-based pneumatic hammer instability model that accurately predicts the stability of hydrostatic bearings...

  9. Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark Jay

    The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT

  10. Shelf life prediction of radiation sterilized polymeric materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandford, Craig; Woo, Lecon

    1988-01-01

    The functional properties of many polymers employed in medical disposables are unaffected by sterilizing doses of ionizing radiation. However, some materials (PVC, polypropylene, cellulosics, etc.) undergo undesirable changes which continue to occur for the shelf life of the product. In many cases, conventional accelerated aging techniques do not accurately predict the real time properties of the materials. As real time aging is not generally practical, it has become necessary to develop accelerated aging techniques which can predict the functional properties of a material for the shelf life of the product. This presentation will address issues involved in developing these tests. Real time physical property data is compared to data generated by various acceleration methods. (author)

  11. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  12. Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis addresses the service life concept on the fibre reinforced cementitious composites. The advantages and problems of adding fibre to a cementitious matrix and the influence on service life are described. In SBI Report 221, Service life prediction and cementitious somposites......, the factors affecting the pure cementitious composite are described. Different sizes and types of fibre reinforced crmentitious composites have been chosen to illustrate different ageing and deterioration mechanisms. Some ageing mechanisms can be accelerated and others cannot which is demonstrated in a test...... programme. Moisture, micro structural and mechanical properties were measured before, during and after ageing, with the purpose of giving a detailed "picture" of the materials during ageing....

  13. Failure analysis and seal life prediction for contacting mechanical seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J. J.; He, X. Y.; Wei, L.; Feng, X.

    2008-11-01

    Fault tree analysis method was applied to quantitatively investigate the causes of the leakage failure of mechanical seals. It is pointed out that the change of the surface topography is the main reasons causing the leakage of mechanical seals under the condition of constant preloads. Based on the fractal geometry theory, the relationship between the surface topography and working time were investigated by experiments, and the effects of unit load acting on seal face on leakage path in a mechanical seal were analyzed. The model of predicting seal life of mechanical seals was established on the basis of the relationship between the surface topography and working time and allowable leakage. The seal life of 108 mechanical seal operating at the system of diesel fuel storage and transportation was predicted and the problem of the condition monitoring for the long-period operation of mechanical seal was discussed by this method. The research results indicate that the method of predicting seal life of mechanical seals is feasible, and also is foundation to make scheduled maintenance time and to achieve safe-reliability and low-cost operation for industrial devices.

  14. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  15. Shelf life prediction of canned fried-rice using accelerated shelf life testing (ASLT) arrhenius method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniadi, M.; Bintang, R.; Kusumaningrum, A.; Nursiwi, A.; Nurhikmat, A.; Susanto, A.; Angwar, M.; Triwiyono; Frediansyah, A.

    2017-12-01

    Research on shelf-life prediction of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius model has been conducted. The aim of this research to predict shelf life of canned-fried rice products. Lethality value of 121°C for 15 and 20 minutes and Total Plate count methods are used to determine time and temperatures of sterilization process.Various storage temperatures of ASLT Arrhenius method were 35, 45 and 55°C during 35days. Rancidity is one of the derivation quality of canned fried rice. In this research, sample of canned fried rice is tested using rancidity value (TBA). TBA value was used as parameter which be measured once a week periodically. The use of can for fried rice without any chemical preservative is one of the advantage of the product, additionaly the use of physicalproperties such as temperature and pressure during its process can extend the shelf life and reduce the microbial contamination. The same research has never done before for fried rice as ready to eat meal. The result showed that the optimum conditions of sterilization process were 121°C,15 minutes with total plate count number of 9,3 × 101 CFU/ml. Lethality value of canned fried rice at 121°C,15 minutes was 3.63 minutes. The calculated Shelf-life of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius method was 10.3 months.

  16. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  17. Half-life predictions for decay modes of superheavy nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P.; Goncalves, M.; Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F.; Barbosa, T.N.; Garcia, F.; Dimarco, A.

    2004-09-01

    We applied the Effective Liquid Drop Model (ELDM) to predict the alpha-decay, cluster emission and cold fission half-life-values of nuclei in the region of Superheavy Elements (SHE). The present calculations have been made in the region of the ZN-plane defined by 155 <=N <=220 and 110<=Z<=135. Shell effects are included via the Q-value of the corresponding decay case. We report the results of a systematic calculation of the half-life for the three nuclear decay modes in a region of the ZN-plane where superheavy elements are expected to be found. Results have shown that, among the decay modes investigated here, the alpha decay is the dominant one. i.e, the decay mode of smallest half-lives. Half-life predictions for alpha decay, cluster emission and cold fission for the isotopic family of the most recent SHE detected of Z=115 and for the isotopic family of the already consolidated SHE of Z=111 are presented. (author)

  18. Fatigue life prediction in woven carbon fabric polyester composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Z.; Al-Sulaiman, F.S.; Farooqi, J.K.

    1999-01-01

    An analytical model, based on stiffness degradation during fatigue loading, which has been used for fatigue life predictions in the Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP), is employed to examine its validity to the fatigue life predictions in the Woven Fabric Reinforced Plastics. The rate of stiffness degradation (dE/dN) has been obtained from the constant amplitude fatigue testing of 8-ply coupons made from prepreg plain-weave woven carbon-carbon fabric having a polyester resin as the matrix material. The test coupons had three different ply stacking sequences, namely, the unidirectional (0)8,and two off axis plied (0,0,+45,-45)s, and (+45,-45,0,0)s orientations. The estimated fatigue lives obtained from the damage rate function dD/dN, which in turn was a function of the stiffness degradation rate dE/dN, were compared with the experimentally observed fatigue life data. It is shown that the stiffness degradation model provides reasonably good correlation between the analytically determined fatigue lives and the experimentally observed fatigue for the plain-weave woven Carbon-Carbon Fabric Reinforced Plastic Composites. (author)

  19. Recent Methodologies for Creep Deformation Analysis and Its Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Iung

    2016-01-01

    To design the high-temperature creeping materials, various creep data are needed for codification, as follows: i) stress vs. creep rupture time for base metals and weldments (average and minimum), ii) stress vs. time to 1% total strain (average), iii) stress vs. time to onset of tertiary creep (minimum), and iv) constitutive eqns. for conducting time- and temperature- dependent stress-strain (average), and v) isochronous stress-strain curves (average). Also, elevated temperature components such as those used in modern power generation plant are designed using allowable stress under creep conditions. The allowable stress is usually estimated on the basis of up to 10"5 h creep rupture strength at the operating temperature. The master curve of the “sinh” function was found to have a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. The proposed multi-C method in the LM parameter revealed better life prediction than a single-C method. These improved methodologies can be utilized to accurately predict the long-term creep life or strength of Gen-IV nuclear materials which are designed for life span of 60 years

  20. Time-dependent fatigue--phenomenology and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffin, L.F.

    1979-01-01

    The time-dependent fatigue behavior of materials used or considered for use in present and advanced systems for power generation is outlined. A picture is first presented to show how basic mechanisms and phenomenological information relate to the performance of the component under consideration through the so-called local strain approach. By this means life prediction criteria and design rules can be formulated utilizing laboratory test information which is directly translated to predicting the performance of a component. The body of phenomenological information relative to time-dependent fatigue is reviewed. Included are effects of strain range, strain rate and frequency, environment and wave shape, all of which are shown to be important in developing both an understanding and design base for time dependent fatigue. Using this information, some of the current methods being considered for the life prediction of components are reviewed. These include the current ASME code case, frequency-modified fatigue equations, strain range partitioning, the damage function method, frequency separation and damage rate equations. From this review, it is hoped that a better perspective on future directions for basic material science at high temperature can be achieved

  1. Statistical characterization of pitting corrosion process and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheikh, A.K.; Younas, M.

    1995-01-01

    In order to prevent corrosion failures of machines and structures, it is desirable to know in advance when the corrosion damage will take place, and appropriate measures are needed to mitigate the damage. The corrosion predictions are needed both at development as well as operational stage of machines and structures. There are several forms of corrosion process through which varying degrees of damage can occur. Under certain conditions these corrosion processes at alone and in other set of conditions, several of these processes may occur simultaneously. For a certain type of machine elements and structures, such as gears, bearing, tubes, pipelines, containers, storage tanks etc., are particularly prone to pitting corrosion which is an insidious form of corrosion. The corrosion predictions are usually based on experimental results obtained from test coupons and/or field experiences of similar machines or parts of a structure. Considerable scatter is observed in corrosion processes. The probabilities nature and kinetics of pitting process makes in necessary to use statistical method to forecast the residual life of machine of structures. The focus of this paper is to characterization pitting as a time-dependent random process, and using this characterization the prediction of life to reach a critical level of pitting damage can be made. Using several data sets from literature on pitting corrosion, the extreme value modeling of pitting corrosion process, the evolution of the extreme value distribution in time, and their relationship to the reliability of machines and structure are explained. (author)

  2. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steunenberg, Bas; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Deeg, Dorly J H; Kerkhof, Ad J F M

    2010-06-01

    To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n=3107; aged > or = 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three years (first follow-up cycle) was identified. 41 (45%) respondents experienced a recurrence during the subsequent six years. The influences of personality and late life stress (demographic factors, health and social factors) on recurrence were investigated prospectively. Recurrence of depression was associated with a high level of neuroticism and low level of mastery, residual depressive symptoms at time of recovery, female gender, pain complaints and feelings of loneliness. In multivariable analysis entering all predictors significant in single variable analysis, residual depressive symptoms and lack of mastery remained significantly associated with recurrence. In predicting the recurrence of depression in later life, the direct effects of personality remain important and comparable in strength with other late life stressors related to recurrence. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Using ABAQUS Scripting Interface for Materials Evaluation and Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Arnold, Steven M.; Baranski, Andrzej

    2006-01-01

    An ABAQUS script has been written to aid in the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of viscoplastic materials. The purposes of the script are to: handle complex load histories; control load/displacement with alternate stopping criteria; predict failure and life; and verify constitutive models. Material models from the ABAQUS library may be used or the UMAT routine may specify mechanical behavior. User subroutines implemented include: UMAT for the constitutive model; UEXTERNALDB for file manipulation; DISP for boundary conditions; and URDFIL for results processing. Examples presented include load, strain and displacement control tests on a single element model. The tests are creep with a life limiting strain criterion, strain control with a stress limiting cycle and a complex interrupted cyclic relaxation test. The techniques implemented in this paper enable complex load conditions to be solved efficiently with ABAQUS.

  4. Patterns, Entropy, and Predictability of Human Mobility and Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Shao-Meng; Verkasalo, Hannu; Mohtaschemi, Mikael; Hartonen, Tuomo; Alava, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as “home”, “work” and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]). This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to −1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by “life” entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length. PMID:23300542

  5. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

    2001-01-01

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

  6. Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life Changing and Life Threatening Health Changes among Aging Veterans and Civilians with Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0629 TITLE: Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life -Threatening Health Changes among Aging...Annual 3. DATES COVERED 30 Sep 2016 - 29 Sep 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life ... hope of preventing them. Our purpose is to better understand the how and why of the development of negative health spirals and how they may best be

  7. WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

  8. Life Prediction of Spent Fuel Storage Canister Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballinger, Ronald

    2018-04-16

    The original purpose of this project was to develop a probabilistic model for SCC-induced failure of spent fuel storage canisters, exposed to a salt-air environment in the temperature range 30-70°C for periods up to and exceeding 100 years. The nature of this degradation process, which involves multiple degradation mechanisms, combined with variable and uncertain environmental conditions dictates a probabilistic approach to life prediction. A final report for the original portion of the project was submitted earlier. However, residual stress measurements for as-welded and repair welds could not be performed within the original time of the project. As a result of this, a no-cost extension was granted in order to complete these tests. In this report, we report on the results of residual stress measurements.

  9. NULIFE - the European NoE 'Nuclear Plant Life Prediction'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cojan, Mihail

    2008-01-01

    INR Pitesti become on the 29th September 2006 a partner in the European Network of Excellence Nuclear Plant Life Prediction (NULIFE) coordinated by Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). The EU's Network of Excellence NULIFE has been launched under the EURATOM FP6 Program with a clear focus on integrating safety-oriented research on materials, structures and systems and exploiting the results of this integration through the production of harmonized lifetime assessment methods. NULIFE will help provide a better common understanding of, and information on, the factors affecting the lifetime of nuclear power plants which, together with associated management methods, will help facilitate extensions to the safe and economic lifetime of existing nuclear power plants. (author)

  10. Quality of life prediction in children with joint hypermobility syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacey, Verity; Tofts, Louise; Adams, Roger D; Munns, Craig F; Nicholson, Leslie L

    2015-07-01

    To assess the child- and parent-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of children with joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS), to compare these with other chronic paediatric conditions and to determine whether symptoms experienced by children with JHS can predict their HRQOL. Eighty-nine children with JHS and one of their parents completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 Generic Core Scale, the Multidimensional Fatigue Scale and the Pediatric Pain Questionnaire. Anthropometric measures and reported symptoms were recorded. Child-reported HRQOL scores were compared with parent report, and both child- and parent-reported HRQOL scores of children with JHS were compared with those of children with other chronic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression was undertaken to determine whether any combination of measures could predict HRQOL. Parent- and child-reported HRQOL scores were strongly correlated (r = 0.6-0.84, all P children with JHS perceived lower overall HRQOL (mean difference = 4.44, P = 0.001), physical (mean difference = 7.11, P children. When considered together with previously reported HRQOL scores for children with other chronic conditions, parent and child scores were similarly strongly correlated (r = 0.93, P = 0.001). Multiple regression revealed that 75% of the variance in child-reported HRQOL scores was accounted for by a child's level of pain and fatigue, and presence of stress incontinence symptoms (P Children with JHS experience poor HRQOL and disabling fatigue, with parent scores providing a good proxy. Pain, fatigue and the presence of stress incontinence symptoms have the greatest impact on their HRQOL. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2015 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  11. Thermomechanical Fatigue of Ductile Cast Iron and Its Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xijia; Quan, Guangchun; MacNeil, Ryan; Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Sloss, Clayton

    2015-06-01

    Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) behaviors of ductile cast iron (DCI) were investigated under out-of-phase (OP), in-phase (IP), and constrained strain-control conditions with temperature hold in various temperature ranges: 573 K to 1073 K, 723 K to 1073 K, and 433 K to 873 K (300 °C to 800 °C, 450 °C to 800 °C, and 160 °C to 600 °C). The integrated creep-fatigue theory (ICFT) model was incorporated into the finite element method to simulate the hysteresis behavior and predict the TMF life of DCI under those test conditions. With the consideration of four deformation/damage mechanisms: (i) plasticity-induced fatigue, (ii) intergranular embrittlement, (iii) creep, and (iv) oxidation, as revealed from the previous study on low cycle fatigue of the material, the model delineates the contributions of these physical mechanisms in the asymmetrical hysteresis behavior and the damage accumulation process leading to final TMF failure. This study shows that the ICFT model can simulate the stress-strain response and life of DCI under complex TMF loading profiles (OP and IP, and constrained with temperature hold).

  12. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  13. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk

  14. Fatigue life prediction of oil ducts under service loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meggiolaro, Marco A.; Castro, Jaime T.P. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    A methodology to calculate the residual initiation and propagation lives of fatigue cracks in oil pipelines with corrosion-like defects is proposed and applied to predict the residual life of an old duct made of API 5L Gr. B steel, in service for more than 40 years. Since its inauguration, this pipeline has carried several heated products under variable temperatures and pressures. The calculated (nominal) service stresses are very high, due to thermal loads that induce significant bending in curved parts of the duct, with peaks close to the yield strength of the steel. The elastic- plastic fatigue damage at a notch or a corrosion pit root is calculated using the {epsilon}N method, and the effects of surface semi-elliptical cracks in its internal (or external) wall is studied considering appropriate stress intensity factor expressions and the actual service loads. In the presence of surface flaws associated to stress concentration factors of the order of three, a fatigue crack likely will initiate in the pipeline. However, if these surface cracks are small compared to the duct wall thickness, their predicted propagation rates are very low. (author)

  15. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in a assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainly and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel). (authors)

  16. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in an assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods provide an attractive alternative or supplement to more conventional deterministic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainty and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel)

  17. Research on bearing life prediction based on support vector machine and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Chuang; Zhang Zhousuo; He Zhengjia

    2011-01-01

    Life prediction of rolling element bearing is the urgent demand in engineering practice, and the effective life prediction technique is beneficial to predictive maintenance. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and is of advantage in prediction. This paper develops SVM-based model for bearing life prediction. The inputs of the model are features of bearing vibration signal and the output is the bearing running time-bearing failure time ratio. The model is built base on a few failed bearing data, and it can fuse information of the predicted bearing. So it is of advantage to bearing life prediction in practice. The model is applied to life prediction of a bearing, and the result shows the proposed model is of high precision.

  18. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  19. L70 life prediction for solid state lighting using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, Lynn

    2013-08-08

    Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. The measured state variable has been related to the underlying damage using physics-based models. Life

  20. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T. [Allied-Signal Aerospace Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States). Garrett Engine Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  1. Ghrelin level negatively predicts quality of life in obese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, P H; Song, Y L; Hsu, C H

    2017-02-01

    A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted to investigate whether ghrelin level in obese women predicts the quality of life (QOL). A total of 307 subjects fulfilled the criteria: (1) age between 20 and 65 years old, (2) body mass index ≥27 kg/m 2 (3) waist circumference ≥80 cm were enrolled in the study. All subjects were assigned to one of the plasma ghrelin level categories according to the quartiles. The median of age and BMI of the 307 obese women were 45 ± 18 years and 29.9 ± 4.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. The main outcome evaluated is the associations of plasma ghrelin level and QOL, which were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results of linear trend test show significant statistical difference in plasma lipoproteins (triglyceride, cholesterol, HDL-cholestero and LDL-cholesterol = and levels of obesity-related hormone peptides, including leptin, adiponectin, insulin among quartiles of ghrelin. Multiple liner regression analysis of serum obesity-related hormone peptide level and QOL using stepwise method shows ghrelin concentration was the only predictor of QOL, including PCS-12 level (β = -0.18, p = 0.001), MCS-12 level (β = -0.14, p = 0.009), WHOQOL-BREF scores: physical (β = -0.13, p = 0.03), psychological (β = -0.16, p = 0.007), social (β = -0.21, p =  ghrelin concentration is strongly associated with QOL level among obese women. Hence, ghrelin concentration might be a valuable marker to be monitored in obese women.

  2. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  3. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Shelf life prediction of apple brownies using accelerated method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulungan, M. H.; Sukmana, A. D.; Dewi, I. A.

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research was to determine shelf life of apple brownies. Shelf life was determined with Accelerated Shelf Life Testing method and Arrhenius equation. Experiment was conducted at 25, 35, and 45°C for 30 days. Every five days, the sample was analysed for free fatty acid (FFA), water activity (Aw), and organoleptic acceptance (flavour, aroma, and texture). The shelf life of the apple brownies based on FFA were 110, 54, and 28 days at temperature of 25, 35, and 45°C, respectively.

  5. Prediction information - GRIPDB | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available switchLanguage; BLAST Search Image Search Home About Archive Update History Data List Contact us GRI...a.nbdc01665-004 Description of data contents Predicted GPCR interaction regions Data file File name: gripdb_...predicted_info.zip File URL: ftp://ftp.biosciencedbc.jp/archive/gripdb/LATEST/gripdb_predicted_info.zip File... size: 219 KB Simple search URL http://togodb.biosciencedbc.jp/togodb/view/gripdb...entries Data item Description ID Prediction information ID GRIP ID GRIP ID related wigh the prediction Predi

  6. The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to

  7. Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

  8. Fatigue life prediction for a cold worked T316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manjoine, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    Permanent damage curves of initiation-life and propagation-life which predict the fatigue life of specimens of a cold-worked type 316 stainless steel under complex strain-range histories were generated by a limited test program. Analysis of the test data showed that fatigue damage is not linear throughout life and that propagation life is longer than initiation-life at high strain ranges but is shorter at low strain ranges. If permanent damage has been initiated by prior history and/or fabrication, propagation to a given life can occur at a lower strain range than that estimated from the fatigue curves for constant CSR. (author) [pt

  9. Physics-based models of the plasmasphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordanova, Vania K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pierrard, Vivane [BELGIUM; Goldstein, Jerry [SWRI; Andr' e, Nicolas [ESTEC/ESA; Kotova, Galina A [SRI, RUSSIA; Lemaire, Joseph F [BELGIUM; Liemohn, Mike W [U OF MICHIGAN; Matsui, H [UNIV OF NEW HAMPSHIRE

    2008-01-01

    We describe recent progress in physics-based models of the plasmasphere using the Auid and the kinetic approaches. Global modeling of the dynamics and inAuence of the plasmasphere is presented. Results from global plasmasphere simulations are used to understand and quantify (i) the electric potential pattern and evolution during geomagnetic storms, and (ii) the inAuence of the plasmasphere on the excitation of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (ElvIIC) waves a.nd precipitation of energetic ions in the inner magnetosphere. The interactions of the plasmasphere with the ionosphere a.nd the other regions of the magnetosphere are pointed out. We show the results of simulations for the formation of the plasmapause and discuss the inAuence of plasmaspheric wind and of ultra low frequency (ULF) waves for transport of plasmaspheric material. Theoretical formulations used to model the electric field and plasma distribution in the plasmasphere are given. Model predictions are compared to recent CLUSTER and MAGE observations, but also to results of earlier models and satellite observations.

  10. The accuracy of dysphoric and nondepressed groups' predictions of life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapçi, E G; Cramer, D

    1998-11-01

    The phenomenon of depressive realism was examined in relation to the future prediction of positive and negative life events. A group of dysphoric (n = 20) and nondepressed (n = 38) British undergraduates participated in a prospective study lasting 3 months. Partly consistent with the depressive realism hypotheses, dysphoric participants were more realistic concerning the negative life events they would experience, but they were less realistic concerning the negative life events they would not experience. Although no difference was found for predicting the occurrence of positive life events, dysphoric participants were found to be more realistic concerning positive life events that they would not experience.

  11. Physics-Based Simulations of Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Kasey William

    Earthquakes and tsunamis are some of the most damaging natural disasters that we face. Just two recent events, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and the 2011 Haiti earthquake, claimed more than 400,000 lives. Despite their catastrophic impacts on society, our ability to predict these natural disasters is still very limited. The main challenge in studying the earthquake cycle is the non-linear and multi-scale properties of fault networks. Earthquakes are governed by physics across many orders of magnitude of spatial and temporal scales; from the scale of tectonic plates and their evolution over millions of years, down to the scale of rock fracturing over milliseconds to minutes at the sub-centimeter scale during an earthquake. Despite these challenges, there are useful patterns in earthquake occurrence. One such pattern, the frequency-magnitude relation, relates the number of large earthquakes to small earthquakes and forms the basis for assessing earthquake hazard. However the utility of these relations is proportional to the length of our earthquake records, and typical records span at most a few hundred years. Utilizing physics based interactions and techniques from statistical physics, earthquake simulations provide rich earthquake catalogs allowing us to measure otherwise unobservable statistics. In this dissertation I will discuss five applications of physics-based simulations of natural hazards, utilizing an earthquake simulator called Virtual Quake. The first is an overview of computing earthquake probabilities from simulations, focusing on the California fault system. The second uses simulations to help guide satellite-based earthquake monitoring methods. The third presents a new friction model for Virtual Quake and describes how we tune simulations to match reality. The fourth describes the process of turning Virtual Quake into an open source research tool. This section then focuses on a resulting collaboration using Virtual Quake for a detailed

  12. Life Prediction for FRP composites with Data Fusion & Machine Learning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — High-fidelity, probabilistic predictions of damage evolution in fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composite structures could accelerate development and certification of...

  13. Physics Based Modeling of Compressible Turbulance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-07

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0345 PHYSICS -BASED MODELING OF COMPRESSIBLE TURBULENCE PARVIZ MOIN LELAND STANFORD JUNIOR UNIV CA Final Report 09/13/2016...on the AFOSR project (FA9550-11-1-0111) entitled: Physics based modeling of compressible turbulence. The period of performance was, June 15, 2011...by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Page 1 of 2FORM SF 298 11/10/2016https://livelink.ebs.afrl.af.mil/livelink/llisapi.dll PHYSICS -BASED MODELING OF COMPRESSIBLE

  14. Life prediction methods for the combined creep-fatigue endurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wareing, J.; Lloyd, G.J.

    1980-09-01

    The basis and current status of development of the various approaches to the prediction of the combined creep-fatigue endurance are reviewed. It is concluded that an inadequate materials data base makes it difficult to draw sensible conclusions about the prediction capabilities of each of the available methods. Correlation with data for stainless steel 304 and 316 is presented. (U.K.)

  15. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  16. Fatigue life prediction of autofrettage tubes using actual material behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahed, Hamid; Farshi, Behrooz; Hosseini, Mohammad

    2006-01-01

    There is a profound Bauschinger effect in the behaviour of high-strength steels used in autofrettaged tubes. This has led to development of methods capable of considering experimentally obtained (actual) material behaviour in residual stress calculations. The extension of these methods to life calculations is presented here. To estimate the life of autofrettaged tubes with a longitudinal surface crack emanating from the bore more accurately, instead of using idealized models, the experimental loading-unloading stress-strain behaviour is employed. The resulting stresses are then used to calculate stress intensity factors by the weight function method as input to fatigue life determination. Fatigue lives obtained using the actual material behaviour are then compared with the results of frequently used ideal models including those considering Bauschinger effect factors and strain hardening in unloading. Using standard fatigue crack growth relationships, life of the vessel is then calculated based on recommended initial and final crack length. It is shown that the life gain due to autofrettage above 70% overstrain is considerable

  17. A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

  18. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steunenberg, B.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. Method: A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n = 3107; aged ≥ 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three

  19. A study of fatigue life prediction for automotive spot weldment using local strain approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Song In; Yu, Hyo Sun; Na, Sung Hun; Na, Eui Gyun

    2000-01-01

    The fatigue crack initiation life is studied on automotive spot weldment made from cold rolled carbon steel(SPC) sheet by using DCPDM and local strain approach. It can be found that the fatigue crack initiation behavior in spot weldment can be definitely detected by DCPDM system. The local stresses and strains are estimated by elastic-plastic FEM analysis and the alternative approximate method based on Neuber's rule were applied to predict the fatigue life of spot weldment. A satisfactory correlation between the predicted life and experimental life can be found in spot weldment within a factor of 4

  20. Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

    2012-09-01

    In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

  1. Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Todd J.; And Others

    Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

  2. Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharmeen, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social

  3. Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Element Bearings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hooghoudt, Jan Otto; Jantunen, E; Yi, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Condition monitoring of rolling element bearings is of vital importance in order to keep the industrial wheels running. In wind industry this is especially important due to the challenges in practical maintenance. The paper presents an attempt to improve the capability of prediction of remaining...

  4. Fatigue life prediction of fiber reinforced concrete under flexural load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jun; Stang, Henrik; Li, Victor

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a semi-analytical method to predict fatigue behavior in flexure of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) based on the equilibrium of force in the critical cracked section. The model relies on the cyclic bridging law, the so-called stress-crack width relationship under cyclic tensile...

  5. Fatigue life prediction of pedicle screw for spinal surgery

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Major, Štěpán; Kocour, Vladimír; Cyrus, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 35 (2016), s. 379-388 ISSN 1971-8993. [European Conference on Fracture. ECF21. Catania, 20.06.2015-20.06.2015] Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : pedicle-screw * titan alloy * fatigue life * finite element analysis Subject RIV: JK - Corrosion ; Surface Treatment of Materials http://www.fracturae.com/index.php/fis/article/view/IGF-ESIS.35.43

  6. Predicting quality of work life on nurses' intention to leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Wen; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Park, Chang-Gi; McCreary, Linda L

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between quality of work life (QWL) and nurses' intention to leave their organization (ITLorg). A descriptive cross-sectional survey design was conducted using purposive sampling of 1,283 nurses at seven hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected from March to June 2012. Three questionnaires, including the Chinese version of the Quality of Nursing Work Life scale (C-QNWL), a questionnaire of intention to leave the organization, and a demographic questionnaire, with two informed consent forms were delivered to the nurses at their workplaces. Descriptive data, Pearson's correlations, and the ordinal regression model were analyzed. Over half (52.5%) of nurses had ITLorg. Seven QWL dimensions were significantly negatively correlated with ITLorg (r = -0.17 to -0.37, p working in a nonteaching hospital. Four of the QWL dimensions--supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care--were also predictors of ITLorg. Three QWL dimensions were not predictors of ITLorg. This study showed that individual-related variables (being single, having a diploma or lower educational level), a work-related variable (working at a nonteaching hospital), and the four QWL dimensions play a significant role in nurses' ITLorg. After the QWL dimensions were added to the regression, the variance explained by the model more than doubled. To reduce nurses' ITLorg, nursing administrators may offer more focused interventions to improve the supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  7. Stress analysis and life prediction of gas turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, H. C.; Dunn, A. J.; Woodling, D. R.; Loh, D. L.

    1988-01-01

    A stress analysis procedure is presented for a redesign of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbopump turbine blades. The analysis consists of the one-dimensional scoping analysis to support the design layout and the follow-on three-dimensional finite element analysis to confirm the blade design at operating loading conditions. Blade life is evaluated based on high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue.

  8. Physics-based deformable organisms for medical image analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamarneh, Ghassan; McIntosh, Chris

    2005-04-01

    Previously, "Deformable organisms" were introduced as a novel paradigm for medical image analysis that uses artificial life modelling concepts. Deformable organisms were designed to complement the classical bottom-up deformable models methodologies (geometrical and physical layers), with top-down intelligent deformation control mechanisms (behavioral and cognitive layers). However, a true physical layer was absent and in order to complete medical image segmentation tasks, deformable organisms relied on pure geometry-based shape deformations guided by sensory data, prior structural knowledge, and expert-generated schedules of behaviors. In this paper we introduce the use of physics-based shape deformations within the deformable organisms framework yielding additional robustness by allowing intuitive real-time user guidance and interaction when necessary. We present the results of applying our physics-based deformable organisms, with an underlying dynamic spring-mass mesh model, to segmenting and labelling the corpus callosum in 2D midsagittal magnetic resonance images.

  9. Characterizing Cracking and Permanent Deformation; An Attempt for Predicting the End of the Structural Pavement Life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2017-01-01

    Durable, therefore sustainable, road needs to attain specific characteristics, among others, resistance to permanent deformation and cracking. Determining the development of both characteristics are important to be able to predict pavement life and performance. In this research, permanent

  10. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Myung Soo [Ahtti Co., Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jun Hyu [Tongmyong University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Yup [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods.

  11. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  12. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Myung Soo; Park, Jun Hyu; Kim, Jung Yup

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods

  13. A proposal of parameter to predict biaxial fatigue life for CF8M cast stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Joong Cheul; Kwon, Jae Do

    2005-01-01

    Biaxial low cycle fatigue test was carried out to predict fatigue life under combined axial-torsional loading condition which is that of in-phase and out-of-phase for CF8M cast stainless steels. Fatemi Socie(FS) parameter which is based on critical plane approach is not only one of methods but also the best method that can predict fatigue life under biaxial loading condition. But the result showed that, biaxial fatigue life prediction by using FS parameter with several different parameters for the CF8M cast stainless steels is not conservative but best results. So in this present research, we proposed new fatigue life prediction parameter considering effective shear stress instead of FS parameter which considers the maximum normal stress acting on maximum shear strain and its effectiveness was verified

  14. General life satisfaction predicts dementia in community living older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitsch, Lorraine; Tyas, Suzanne L; Menec, Verena H; St John, Philip D

    2016-07-01

    Low life satisfaction predicts adverse outcomes, and may predict dementia. The objectives were: (1) to determine if life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in those with normal cognition at baseline; and (2) to determine if different aspects of life satisfaction differentially predict dementia. Secondary analysis of an existing population-based cohort study with initial assessment in 1991 and follow-up five years later. Initially, 1,751 adults age 65+ living in the community were sampled from a representative sampling frame. Of these, 1,024 were alive and had complete data at time 2, of whom 96 were diagnosed with dementia. Life satisfaction was measured using the Terrible-Delightful scale, which measures overall life satisfaction on a 7-point scale, as well as various aspects of life satisfaction (e.g. friendships, finances, etc.) Dementia was diagnosed by clinical examination using DSM-IIIR criteria. Logistic regression models were constructed for the outcome of dementia at time 2, and adjusted for age, gender, education, and comorbidities. Overall life satisfaction predicted dementia five years later, at time 2. The unadjusted Odds Ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for dementia at time 2 was 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) per point. The adjusted OR for dementia was 0.70 (0.51, 0.96). No individual item on the life satisfaction scale predicted dementia. However, the competing risk of mortality was very high for some items. A global single-item measure of life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in older adults without cognitive impairment.

  15. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  16. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  17. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M. [Univ. of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  18. Structural health monitoring for fatigue life prediction of orthotropic brdige decks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijpers, R.J.M.; Pahlavan, P.L.; Paulissen, J.H.; Hakkesteegt, H.C.; Jansen, T.H.

    2013-01-01

    Infrastructure asset owners are more and more confronted with structures reaching the end of their structural life. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems should provide up-to-date information about the actual condition, as well predict the structural life and required maintenance of the assets

  19. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  20. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude

  1. Aluminum 7075-T6 fatigue data generation and probabilistic life prediction formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Kemna, John G.

    1998-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The life extension of aging fleet aircraft requires an assessment of the safe-life remaining after refurbishment. Risk can be estimated by conventional deterministic fatigue analysis coupled with a subjective factor of safety. Alternatively, risk can be quantitatively and objectively predicted by probabilistic analysis. In this investigation, a general probabilistic life formulation is specialized for constant amplitude, fully reverse...

  2. Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murri, Gretchen B.

    2004-01-01

    A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

  3. Prediction of packaging seal life using thermoanalytical techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigrey, P.J.

    1997-11-01

    In this study, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) has been used to study silicone, Viton and Ethylene Propylene (EPDM) rubber. The studies have shown that TGA accurately predicts the relative order of thermo-oxidative stability of these three materials from the calculated activation energies. As expected, the greatest thermal stability was found in silicone rubber followed by Viton and EPDM rubber. The calculated lifetimes for these materials were in relatively close agreement with published values. The preliminary results also accurately reflect decreased thermal stability and lifetime for EPDM rubber exposed to radiation and chemicals. These results suggest TGA provides a rapid method to evaluate material stability

  4. A naive Bayes model for robust remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, Selina S.Y.; Xing, Yinjiao; Tsui, Kwok L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Robustness of RUL predictions for lithium-ion batteries is analyzed quantitatively. • RUL predictions of the same battery over cycle life are evaluated. • RUL predictions of batteries over different operating conditions are evaluated. • Naive Bayes (NB) is proposed for predictions under constant discharge environments. • Its robustness and accuracy are compared with that of support vector machine (SVM). - Abstract: Online state-of-health (SoH) estimation and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a critical problem in battery health management. This paper studies the modeling of battery degradation under different usage conditions and ambient temperatures, which is seldom considered in the literature. Li-ion battery RUL prediction under constant operating conditions at different values of ambient temperature and discharge current are considered. A naive Bayes (NB) model is proposed for RUL prediction of batteries under different operating conditions. It is shown in this analysis that under constant discharge environments, the RUL of Li-ion batteries can be predicted with the NB method, irrespective of the exact values of the operating conditions. The case study shows that the NB generates stable and competitive prediction performance over that of the support vector machine (SVM). This also suggests that, while it is well known that the environmental conditions have big impact on the degradation trend, it is the changes in operating conditions of a Li-ion battery over cycle life that makes the Li-ion battery degradation and RUL prediction even more difficult

  5. Life prediction study of reactor pressure vessel as essential technical foundation for plant life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, H.; Nakajima, N.; Kondo, T.

    1987-01-01

    The life of a LWR plant is determined essentially by the limit of reliable performance of the components which are difficult to replace without high economic and/or safety risks. Typical of such a component is the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The engineering life of a RPV of a given quality of steel is considered to be a complex function of factors such as the resistance to fracture, which has deteriorated due to neutron irradiation and thermal aging, and generation of surface flaws by environmental effects such as corrosion and their growth under operational load that varies during steady state operation and transients. In an attempt to evaluate the engineering life of a RPV of a LWR, a preliminary survey was made by applying a set of knowledge accumulated primarily in the field of subcritical crack growth behavior of RPV steels in reactor water environments. The major conclusions drawn are: (1) the life of a RPV is dependent on the quality of steel used, particularly with respect to any minor impurities it contains. (2) The issue of plant life extension in RPV aspect is found to be optimistic for cases where the steels used satisfy a reasonable level of quality control. (3) The importance of providing sound scientific foundation is stressed for the implementation of a practicable life extension scheme: this can be established through intensified studies of flaw growth and fracture behaviours in well defined testings under reasonably simulated service conditions

  6. Prediction of cladding life in waste package environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCoy, J.K.; Doering, T.W.

    1994-01-01

    Fuel cladding can potentially provide longer containment or slower release of radionuclides from spent fuel after geologic disposal. To predict the amount of benefit that cladding can provide, we surveyed degradation modes and developed a model for creep rupture by diffusion-controlled cavity growth, the mechanism that several authors have concluded is the most important. In this mechanism, voids nucleate on the grain boundaries and grow by diffusion of vacancies along the grain boundaries to the voids. When a certain fraction of the grain boundary area is covered with voids, the material fails. An analytic expression for cladding lifetime is developed. Besides materials constants, the predicted lifetime depends on the temperature history, the hoop stress in the cladding, the spacing between void nuclei, and the micro-structure. The inclusion of microstructure is a significant new feature of the model; this feature is used to help avoid excessive conservatism. The model is applied in a sample calculation for disposal of spent fuel, and the practice of using temperature limits to evaluate repository designs is examined

  7. Gas Generation in Radioactive Wastes - MAGGAS Predictive Life Cycle Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streatfield, R.E.; Hebditch, D.J.; Swift, B.T.; Hoch, A.R.; Constable, M.

    2006-01-01

    Gases may form from radioactive waste in quantities posing different potential hazards throughout the waste package life cycle. The latter includes surface storage, transport, placing in an operating repository, storage in the repository prior to backfill, closure and the post-closure stage. Potentially hazardous situations involving gas include fire, flood, dropped packages, blocked package vents and disruption to a sealed repository. The MAGGAS (Magnox Gas generation) model was developed to assess gas formation for safety assessments during all stages of the waste package life cycle. This is a requirement of the U.K. regulatory authorities and Nirex and progress in this context is discussed. The processes represented in the model include: Corrosion, microbial degradation, radiolysis, solid-state diffusion, chemico-physical degradation and pressurisation. The calculation was split into three time periods. First the 'aerobic phase' is used to model the periods of surface storage, transport and repository operations including storage in the repository prior to backfill. The second and third periods were designated 'anaerobic phase 1' and 'anaerobic phase 2' and used to model the waste packages in the post-closure phase of the repository. The various significant gas production processes are modeled in each phase. MAGGAS (currently Version 8) is mounted on an Excel spreadsheet for ease of use and speed, has 22 worksheets and is operated routinely for assessing waste packages (e.g. for ventilation of stores and pressurisation of containers). Ten operational and decommissioning generic nuclear power station waste streams were defined as initial inputs, which included ion exchange materials, sludges and concentrates, fuel element debris, graphite debris, activated components, contaminated items, desiccants and catalysts. (authors)

  8. Fatigue Life Prediction of Self-Piercing Rivet Joints Between Magnesium and Aluminum Alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Hong-Tae

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Various light materials including aluminum alloys and magnesium alloys are being used to reduce the weight of vehicle structures. Joining of dissimilar materials is always a challenging task to construct a solid structure. Self-piercing rivet (SPR joint is one of various joining methods for dissimilar materials. Front shock tower structures were constructed with magnesium alloy (AM60 joined to aluminum alloy (Al6082 by SPR joints. To evaluate the durability performance of the SPR joints in the structures, fatigue tests of the front shock tower structures were conducted with constant amplitude loadings. Furthermore, this study investigated fatigue life prediction method of SPR joints and compared the fatigue life prediction results with that of experimental results. For fatigue life prediction of the SPR joints in the front shock tower structures, lap-shear and cross-tension specimens of SPR joint were constructed and tested to characterize the fatigue properties of the SPR joint. Then, the SPR joint was represented with area contact method (ACM in finite element (FE models. The load-life curves of the lap-shear and cross-tension specimens were converted to a structural stress-life (S-N curve of the SPR joints. The S-N curve was used to predict fatigue life of SPR joints in the front shock tower structures. The test results and the prediction results were well correlated.

  9. Prediction of multiaxial fatigue life for notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Song, Y. D. [Nanjing University, Nanjing (China)

    2016-05-15

    Both the proportional and nonproportional multiaxial fatigue tests were conducted on two kinds of notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4. The multiaxial fatigue critical area of notched specimen is considered as the location experiencing the maximum damage. It is unsatisfactory to predict the multiaxial fatigue life with the local stress and strain in the fatigue critical area. The critical distance concepts are employed in the multiaxial life prediction method for notched specimens. The proposed method was checked by the test data of TC4 notched specimens. The prediction results are almost within a factor of three scatter band of the test results.

  10. Development of laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, M. S.; Song, Y. C.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, J. S.; Kim, D. K.

    1999-01-01

    Service life prediction of nuclear power plants depends on the application of history of structures, field inspection and test, the development of laboratory acceleration tests, their analysis method and predictive model. In this study, laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures and application of experimental test results are introduced. This study is concerned with environmental condition of concrete structures and is to develop the acceleration test method for durability factors of concrete structures e.g. carbonation, sulfate attack, freeze-thaw cycles and shrinkage-expansion etc

  11. SOFT COMPUTING SINGLE HIDDEN LAYER MODELS FOR SHELF LIFE PREDICTION OF BURFI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Burfi is an extremely popular sweetmeat, which is prepared by desiccating the standardized water buffalo milk. Soft computing feedforward single layer models were developed for predicting the shelf life of burfi stored at 30g.C. The data of the product relating to moisture, titratable acidity, free fatty acids, tyrosine, and peroxide value were used as input variables, and the overall acceptability score as output variable. The results showed excellent agreement between the experimental and the predicted data, suggesting that the developed soft computing model can alternatively be used for predicting the shelf life of burfi.

  12. Ageing and life prediction of cast duplex stainless steel components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1992-01-01

    Cast duplex stainless steels, used extensively in nuclear, chemical and petroleum industries because of higher strength, better weldability, higher resistance to stress corrosion cracking, and soundness of casting, are susceptible to thermal aging embrittlement during service at temperatures as low as ∼250 o C. Recent advances in understanding the aging mechanisms, kinetics, and mechanical properties are presented, with emphasis on application of the material in safety-significant components in a nuclear reactor. Aging embrittlement is primarily due to spinodal decomposition of ferrite involving segregation of Fe, Cr, and Ni, and precipitation of M 23 C 6 on ferrite-austenite boundaries or in ferrite. Aging kinetics are strongly influenced by synergistic effects of other metallurgical reactions that occur in parallel with the spinodal decomposition, i.e. clustering of Ni, Mo, and Si and G-phase precipitation in ferrite. A number of methods are outlined for estimating end-of-life aging, depending on several factors such as degree of permissible conservatism, availability of component archive material, and methods of estimating and verifying the activation energy of aging. (Author)

  13. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  14. A study on the fatigue life prediction of tire belt-layers using probabilistic method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Sang; Lee, Tae Won; Kim, Seong Rae; Sung, Ki Deug; Huh, Sun Chul

    2013-01-01

    Tire belt separation failure is occurred by internal cracks generated in *1 and *2 belt layers and by its growth. And belt failure seriously affects tire endurance. Therefore, to improve the tire endurance, it is necessary to analyze tire crack growth behavior and predict fatigue life. Generally, the prediction of tire endurance is performed by the experimental method using tire test machine. But it takes much cost and time to perform experiment. In this paper, to predict tire fatigue life, we applied deterministic fracture mechanics approach, based on finite element analysis. Also, probabilistic analysis method based on statistics using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Above mentioned two methods include a global-local finite element analysis to provide the detail necessary to model explicitly an internal crack and calculate the J-integral for tire life prediction.

  15. Life prediction of steam generator tubing due to stress corrosion crack using Monte Carlo Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Jun; Liu Fei; Cheng Guangxu; Zhang Zaoxiao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → A life prediction model for SG tubing was proposed. → The initial crack length for SCC was determined. → Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode were considered. → A probabilistic life prediction code based on Monte Carlo method was developed. - Abstract: The failure of steam generator tubing is one of the main accidents that seriously affects the availability and safety of a nuclear power plant. In order to estimate the probability of the failure, a probabilistic model was established to predict the whole life-span and residual life of steam generator (SG) tubing. The failure investigated was stress corrosion cracking (SCC) after the generation of one through-wall axial crack. Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode based on probabilistic fracture mechanics were considered in this proposed model. It took into account the variance in tube geometry and material properties, and the variance in residual stresses and operating conditions, all of which govern the propagations of cracks. The proposed model was numerically calculated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The plugging criteria were first verified and then the whole life-span and residual life of the SG tubing were obtained. Finally, important sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most important parameters affecting the life of SG tubing. The results will be useful in developing optimum strategies for life-cycle management of the feedwater system in nuclear power plants.

  16. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....

  17. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...

  18. Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.

    2017-01-01

    The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of

  19. LCF life prediction for waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeom, Jong Taek; Park, Nho Kwang

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the empirical rule of strain rate modified linear accumulation of creep damage(SRM rule) for Low-Cycle Fatigue(LCF) life prediction of Waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime and Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model predicting the stress-strain response in various cyclic loading conditions. The comparison of the experimental data and the predictions for strain controlled LCF tests carried out for various strain ranges at 600 .deg. C and 650 .deg. C was made. Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model described efficiently the inelastic deformation behavior during LCF tests. Crack-initiation lifting method to predict the material life was investigated with Strain Rate Modification(SRM) rule. The application of SRM rule to LCF tests on Waspaloy indicated a good agreement between measured and predicted cycles to failure

  20. Creep-fatigue life prediction method using Diercks equation for Cr-Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonoya, Keiji; Nonaka, Isamu; Kitagawa, Masaki

    1990-01-01

    For dealing with the situation that creep-fatigue life properties of materials do not exist, a development of the simple method to predict creep-fatigue life properties is necessary. A method to predict the creep-fatigue life properties of Cr-Mo steels is proposed on the basis of D. Diercks equation which correlates the creep-fatigue lifes of SUS 304 steels under various temperatures, strain ranges, strain rates and hold times. The accuracy of the proposed method was compared with that of the existing methods. The following results were obtained. (1) Fatigue strength and creep rupture strength of Cr-Mo steel are different from those of SUS 304 steel. Therefore in order to apply Diercks equation to creep-fatigue prediction for Cr-Mo steel, the difference of fatigue strength was found to be corrected by fatigue life ratio of both steels and the difference of creep rupture strength was found to be corrected by the equivalent temperature corresponding to equal strength of both steels. (2) Creep-fatigue life can be predicted by the modified Diercks equation within a factor of 2 which is nearly as precise as the accuracy of strain range partitioning method. Required test and analysis procedure of this method are not so complicated as strain range partitioning method. (author)

  1. Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulian Zheng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

  2. How long will my mouse live? Machine learning approaches for prediction of mouse life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindell, William R; Harper, James M; Miller, Richard A

    2008-09-01

    Prediction of individual life span based on characteristics evaluated at middle-age represents a challenging objective for aging research. In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to construct models that predict life span in a stock of genetically heterogeneous mice. Life-span prediction accuracy of 22 algorithms was evaluated using a cross-validation approach, in which models were trained and tested with distinct subsets of data. Using a combination of body weight and T-cell subset measures evaluated before 2 years of age, we show that the life-span quartile to which an individual mouse belongs can be predicted with an accuracy of 35.3% (+/-0.10%). This result provides a new benchmark for the development of life-span-predictive models, but improvement can be expected through identification of new predictor variables and development of computational approaches. Future work in this direction can provide tools for aging research and will shed light on associations between phenotypic traits and longevity.

  3. The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmikanti, Mike

    2013-09-01

    The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

  4. Influences of cyclic deformation on creep property and creep-fatigue life prediction considering them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of creep-fatigue is essential in design and life management of high-temperature components in power generation plants. Cyclic deformation may alter creep property of the materials and its consideration may improve predictability of creep-fatigue failure life. To understand them, creep tests were conducted for the materials subjected to cyclic loading and their creep rupture and deformation behaviors were compared with those of as-received materials. Both 316FR and modified 9Cr-1Mo steel were tested. (1) Creep rupture time and elongation generally tend to decrease with cyclic loading in both materials, and especially elongation of 316FR drastically decreases by being cyclically deformed. (2) Amount of primary creep deformation decreases by cyclic loading and the ways to improve its predictability were developed. (3) Use of creep rupture ductility after cyclic deformation, instead of that of as-received material, brought about clear improvement of life prediction in a modified ductility exhaustion approach. (author)

  5. The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

    2017-10-01

    This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

  6. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  7. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  8. One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

  9. Remaining useful life prediction of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance: Application to draught fans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhao-Qiang; Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Zio, Enrico

    2018-02-01

    Current degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction studies share a common assumption that the degrading systems are not maintained or maintained perfectly (i.e., to an as-good-as new state). This paper concerns the issues of how to model the degradation process and predict the remaining useful life of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance activities, which can restore the health condition of a degrading system to any degradation level between as-good-as new and as-bad-as old. Toward this end, a nonlinear model driven by Wiener process is first proposed to characterize the degradation trajectory of the degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, where negative jumps are incorporated to quantify the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on the system's degradation. Then, the probability density function of the remaining useful life is derived analytically by a space-scale transformation, i.e., transforming the constructed degradation model with negative jumps crossing a constant threshold level to a Wiener process model crossing a random threshold level. To implement the proposed method, unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, the proposed degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method are applied to a practical case of draught fans belonging to a kind of mechanical systems from steel mills. The results reveal that, for a degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, our proposed method can obtain more accurate remaining useful life predictions than those of the benchmark model in literature.

  10. Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue behavior of SA333 steel and their life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, Surajit Kumar; Sivaprasad, S.; Dhar, S.; Tarafder, S.

    2010-01-01

    Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue (LCF) experiments have been conducted at 25 o C temperature in laboratory environment under different loading conditions. SA333 steel exhibits cyclic hardening throughout its life during LCF. It is found that ratcheting strain increases with both increasing mean stress and stress amplitude. It has also been noticed that plastic strain amplitude and plastic strain energy decrease with increase in mean stress at constant stress amplitude. Ratcheting and LCF life in the range of 10 2 -10 5 cycles have been predicted with the help of a mean stress-based fatigue lifing equation.

  11. Fatigue life prediction for pressure cast transmission housings using the strain life approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varenkamp, M. [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Abteilung TB-1, 88038 Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schoen, M.

    2011-04-15

    Pressure cast transmission housings are structural components of complex shape, which have to fulfil, amongst others, the requirements of structural durability, saving as much weight as possible. The numerical proof of structural durability is carried out using the local strain approach. One challenge is to consider the inhomogeneous material properties, as a consequence of the casting process. It shows, that local porosity is the determining factor for the components fatigue life. Coming from the experiences made using the basic version of the local strain approach the methods used to successfully adjust the procedure for calculating pressure cast components under constant and variable amplitudes are described. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  12. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  13. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2015-08-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated product. Weibull hazard analysis was used to determine the shelf life of the product based on sensory evaluation. Considering 25 and 50 % rejection probability, the shelf life of the baby food formulation was predicted to be 98 and 322 days, 84 and 271 days, 71 and 221 days and 58 and 171 days for the samples stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively. A shelf life equation was proposed using the rejection times obtained from the consumer study. Finally, the formulated baby food samples were subjected to microbial analysis for the predicted shelf life period and were found microbiologically safe for consumption during the storage period of 360 days.

  14. A computational approach for thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnasamy, Ram-Kumar; Seifert, Thomas; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    In this paper a computational approach for fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes is presented and applied to a dissimilar weld between tubes made of the nickel base alloy Alloy617 tube and the 12% chromium steel VM12. The approach comprises the calculation of the residual stresses in the welded tubes with a multi-pass dissimilar welding simulation, the relaxation of the residual stresses in a post weld heat treatment (PWHT) simulation and the fatigue life prediction using the remaining residual stresses as initial condition. A cyclic fiscoplasticity model is used to calculate the transient stresses and strains under thermocyclic service loadings. The fatigue life is predicted with a damage parameter which is based on fracture mechanics. The adjustable parameters of the model are determined based on LCF and TMF experiments. The simulations show, that the residual stresses that remain after PWHT further relax in the first loading cycles. The predicted fatigue lives depend on the residual stresses and, thus, on the choice of the loading cycle in which the damage parameter is evaluated. It the first loading cycle, where residual stresses are still present, is considered, lower fatigue lives are predicted compared to predictions considering loading cycles with relaxed residual stresses. (orig.)

  15. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  16. Evaluation of creep-fatigue life prediction methods for low-carbon/nitrogen-added SUS316

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1998-01-01

    Low-carbon/medium nitrogen 316 stainless steel called 316FR is a principal candidate for the high-temperature structural materials of a demonstration fast reactor plant. Because creep-fatigue damage is a dominant failure mechanism of the high-temperature materials subjected to thermal cycles, it is important to establish a reliable creep-fatigue life prediction method for this steel. Long-term creep tests and strain-controlled creep-fatigue tests have been conducted at various conditions for two different heats of the steel. In the constant load creep tests, both materials showed similar creep rupture strength but different ductility. The material with lower ductility exhibited shorter life under creep-fatigue loading conditions and correlation of creep-fatigue life with rupture ductility, rather than rupture strength, was made clear. Two kinds of creep-fatigue life prediction methods, i.e. time fraction rule and ductility exhaustion method were applied to predict the creep-fatigue life. Accurate description of stress relaxation behavior was achieved by an addition of 'viscous' strain to conventional creep strain and only the latter of which was assumed to contribute to creep damage in the application of ductility exhaustion method. The current version of the ductility exhaustion method was found to have very good accuracy in creep-fatigue life prediction, while the time fraction rule overpredicted creep-fatigue life as large as a factor of 30. To make a reliable estimation of the creep damage in actual components, use of ductility exhaustion method is strongly recommended. (author)

  17. Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

    2018-05-01

    The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

  18. Multi-Axial Damage Index and Accumulation Model for Predicting Fatigue Life of CMC Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The fatigue life of CMCs must be well characterized for the safe and reliable use of these materials as integrated TPS components. Existing fatigue life prediction...

  19. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  20. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Setoguchi, Katsuya; Nakano, Shohki; Nomura, Shinichi

    1991-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behavior of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime which are proposed by the authors are applied to the inelastic analysis and creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated cylinder subjected to cyclic thermal stress. Stress-strain behavior of perforated cylinder is analyzed by modeling the perforated portion to cylinder with equivalent-solid-plate properties. Creep-fatigue lives at around a hole of perforated plates are predicted by using the local stress-strain behavior and are compared with experimentally observed lives. (author)

  1. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

  2. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  3. The Roles of Life Satisfaction, Teaching Efficacy, and Self-Esteem in Predicting Teachers' Job Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çevik, Gülsen Büyüksahin

    2017-01-01

    The current research aims to find out the extent to which high school teachers' life satisfaction, teaching efficacy, and self-esteem predict their job satisfaction. Research participants included a total of 358 teachers (age = 38.82; Ss = 6.73; range, 22-58), 222 males (62%) and 136 females (38%), employed in 21 public high schools in the city…

  4. Numerical Analysis of Rolling Contact Fatigue Crack Initiation and Fatigue Life Prediction of the Railway Crossing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact.

  5. Fatigue life prediction in composites using progressive damage modelling under block and spectrum loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passipoularidis, Vaggelis; Philippidis, T.P.; Brøndsted, Povl

    2010-01-01

    series can be simulated. The predictions are validated against fatigue life data both from repeated block tests at a single stress ratio as well as against spectral fatigue using the WISPER, WISPERX and NEW WISPER load sequences on a Glass/Epoxy multidirectional laminate typical of a Wind Turbine Rotor...

  6. Thermo-mechanical fatigue behaviour and life prediction of C-1023 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Mechanical strain-cycles to failure curves for 890-1055 ºC temperature range. ... could be ascribed to creep strain accumulation at high temperatures coinciding ... It is common in engineering applications to rely on life prediction models based ...

  7. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  8. Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annigeri, Ravindra

    Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of

  9. Physics based Prediction of Unexploded Ordnance Penetration in Granular Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    for the combined Finite-Discrete Element Method. The test data measured at the interrelated scales are used to benchmark corresponding grain...measured at the interrelated scales are used to benchmark corresponding grain-, continuum-, and system-scale discrete and finite element analysis...account for development of dynamic link libraries (DLLs), which can be functionally integrated (as modules) into the existing UXO PenDepth software

  10. Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

    2016-03-01

    We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Predicting life satisfaction in Angolan elderly: The moderating effect of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on the best predictors of life satisfaction. When studying elderly's lifesatisfaction and its predictors, gender differences have been found in several studies, including significant interactions with widowhood, for example. In this context, the present study aims were: (1 to test for the gender invariance in a life satisfaction measure; (2 to predict life satisfaction using several variables related to the aging process; and (3 to test the potential moderator effects due to gender in this prediction. Participants were 1003 Angolan elderly. Several multi-group (men vs. women MIMIC structural models were tested. First, results showed that there is gender invariance for the measurement of life satisfaction. Second, results found no moderation effects on key variables of the aging process. In other words, the estimated effects of psychosocial variables on life satisfaction remain the same for both genders. The discussion relates these results to the existing literature and posits the contributions of the study.

  12. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jianping, E-mail: jpzhanglzu@163.com [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Li, Wenbin [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao [Shanghai Tianyi Electric Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201611 (China); Wu, Helen [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Sydney 2751 (Australia); Herman Shen, M.-H. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University, OH 43210 (United States)

    2014-10-15

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high.

  13. Life-Space Predicts Health Care Utilization in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Richard E; Williams, Courtney P; Sawyer, Patricia; Lo, Alexander X; Connelly, Kay; Nassel, Ariann; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-09-01

    To determine whether decline in life-space mobility predicts increased health care utilization among community-dwelling older adults. Health care utilization (number of emergency department [ED] visits and hospitalizations) was self-reported during monthly interviews among 419 community-dwelling African American and non-Hispanic White adults aged 75 years and older in The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging II. Life-space was measured using the UAB Life-Space Assessment. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine associations of life-space at the beginning of each interval with health care utilization over the 1-month interval. Overall, 400 participants were followed for 36 months. A 10-point decrease in life-space was associated with 14% increased odds of an ED visit and/or hospitalization over the next month, adjusting for demographics, transportation difficulty, comorbidity, and having a doctor visit in the last month. Life-space is a practical alternative in predicting future health care utilization to performance-based measures, which can be difficult to incorporate into clinical or public health practice.

  14. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jianping; Li, Wenbin; Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao; Wu, Helen; Herman Shen, M.-H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high

  15. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  16. Fatigue life prediction of Ni-base thermal solar receiver tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartrott, Philipp von; Schlesinger, Michael [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Uhlig, Ralf; Jedamski, Jens [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Solar receivers for tower type Solar Thermal Power Plants are subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loads including fast and severe thermo-mechanical cycles. The material temperatures can reach more than 800 C and fall to room temperature very quickly. In order to predict the fatigue life of a receiver design, receiver tubes made of Alloy 625 with a wall thickness of 0.5 mm were tested in isothermal and thermo-cyclic experiments. The number of cycles to failure was in the range of 100 to 100,000. A thermo-mechanical fatigue life prediction model was set up. The model is based on the cyclic deformation of the material and the damage caused by the growth of fatigue micro cracks. The model reasonably predicts the experimental results. (orig.)

  17. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, T; Nijssen, R P L

    2014-01-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort

  18. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

  19. Computational models for residual creep life prediction of power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewal, G.S.; Singh, A.K.; Ramamoortry, M.

    2006-01-01

    All high temperature - high pressure power plant components are prone to irreversible visco-plastic deformation by the phenomenon of creep. The steady state creep response as well as the total creep life of a material is related to the operational component temperature through, respectively, the exponential and inverse exponential relationships. Minor increases in the component temperature can thus have serious consequences as far as the creep life and dimensional stability of a plant component are concerned. In high temperature steam tubing in power plants, one mechanism by which a significant temperature rise can occur is by the growth of a thermally insulating oxide film on its steam side surface. In the present paper, an elegantly simple and computationally efficient technique is presented for predicting the residual creep life of steel components subjected to continual steam side oxide film growth. Similarly, fabrication of high temperature power plant components involves extensive use of welding as the fabrication process of choice. Naturally, issues related to the creep life of weldments have to be seriously addressed for safe and continual operation of the welded plant component. Unfortunately, a typical weldment in an engineering structure is a zone of complex microstructural gradation comprising of a number of distinct sub-zones with distinct meso-scale and micro-scale morphology of the phases and (even) chemistry and its creep life prediction presents considerable challenges. The present paper presents a stochastic algorithm, which can be' used for developing experimental creep-cavitation intensity versus residual life correlations for welded structures. Apart from estimates of the residual life in a mean field sense, the model can be used for predicting the reliability of the plant component in a rigorous probabilistic setting. (author)

  20. Prediction of the Service Life of a Reinforced Concrete Column under Chloride Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad K. Alkam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present investigation, service life of a reinforced concrete column exposed to chloride environment has been predicted. This study has been based on numerical simulation of chloride ion diffusion in a concrete column during its anticipated life span. The simulation process has included the concrete cover replacement whenever chloride ion concentration has reached the critical threshold value at the reinforcement surface. Repair scheduling of the concrete column under consideration has been discussed. Effects of the concrete cover thickness and the water cement ratio on the service life of the concrete column at hand have been presented. A new approach for arranging locations of reinforcement steel bars has been introduced. This approach is intended to prolong the service life of the concrete column under consideration against chloride induced corrosion.

  1. A new simplified allometric approach for predicting the biological half-life of radionuclides in reptiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, N.A.; Wood, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    A major source of uncertainty in the estimation of radiation dose to wildlife is the prediction of internal radionuclide activity concentrations. Allometric (mass-dependent) relationships describing biological half-life (T 1/2b ) of radionuclides in organisms can be used to predict organism activity concentrations. The establishment of allometric expressions requires experimental data which are often lacking. An approach to predict the T 1/2b in homeothermic vertebrates has recently been proposed. In this paper we have adapted this to be applicable to reptiles. For Cs, Ra and Sr, over a mass range of 0.02–1.5 kg, resultant predictions were generally within a factor of 6 of reported values demonstrating that the approach can be used when measured T 1/2b data are lacking. However, the effect of mass on reptilian radionuclide T 1/2b is minimal. If sufficient measured data are available for a given radionuclide then it is likely that these would give a reasonable estimate of T 1/2b in any reptile species. - Highlights: • An allometric approach to predict radionuclide T 1/2b values in reptiles is derived. • Predictions are generally within a factor of six of measured values. • Radionuclide biological half-life is in-effect mass independent

  2. Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction based on grey support vector machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an improved grey prediction model is proposed to address low-accuracy prediction issue of grey forecasting model. The first step is using a trigonometric function to transform the original data sequence to smooth the data, which is called smoothness of grey prediction model, and then a grey support vector machine model by integrating the improved grey model with support vector machine is introduced. At the initial stage of the model, trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation can be used to preprocess the data, which enhances the smoothness of the data and reduces the associated randomness. In addition, support vector machine is implemented to establish a prediction model for the pre-processed data and select the optimal model parameters via genetic algorithms. Finally, the data are restored through the ‘regressive generate’ operation to obtain the forecasting data. To prove that the grey support vector machine model is superior to the other models, the battery life data from the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering are selected, and the presented model is used to predict the remaining useful life of the battery. The predicted result is compared to that of grey model and support vector machines. For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this article quantifies the root mean square errors for these three different models in the case of different ratio of training samples and prediction samples. The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine model is optimal, and the corresponding root mean square error is only 3.18%.

  3. Physical activity predicts quality of life and happiness in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Carol Ann; Toohey, Monica; Ferguson, Monika

    2016-01-01

    To examine the associations between physical activity, health-related quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. A total of 70 young people with cerebral palsy (45 males, 25 females; mean age 13 years 11 months, SD 2 years 0 month) took part in a cross-sectional, descriptive postal survey assessing physical activity (Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents), functional ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System), quality of life (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0) and happiness (single Likert-scale item). Relationships between physical activity, quality of life and happiness were examined using backward stepwise linear regression. Physical activity significantly predicted physical quality of life (R(2 )= 0.64, β = 6.12, p = 0.02), social quality of life (R(2 )= 0.28, β = 9.27, p happiness (R(2 )= 0.08, β = 0.9, p = 0.04). Physical activity was not associated with emotional or school quality of life. This study found a positive association between physical activity, social and physical quality of life, and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Findings underscore the potential benefits of physical activity for the wellbeing of young people with cerebral palsy, in addition to its well-recognised physical and health benefits. Physical activity is a key predictor of quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Physical activity is widely recognised as having physical health benefits for young people with cerebral palsy; however, this study also highlights that it may have important benefits for wellbeing, quality of life and happiness. This emphasises the need for clinical services and intervention studies aimed specifically at increasing physical activity amongst children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

  4. Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

    2009-01-01

    To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

  5. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  6. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  7. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.T.; Sliemers, F.A.; Deringer, G.C.; Wood, V.E.; Wilkes, K.E.; Gaines, G.B.; Carmichael, D.C.

    1978-01-15

    The validation of a service life of 20 years for low-cost photovoltaic arrays must be accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A methodology for such tests has been developed in a preceding study. The results discussed consist of the initial identification and assessment of all known measurement techniques and instruments that might be used in these life-prediction tests. Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories--chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and ''other physicals''. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life-prediction tests of arrays are then selected. These recommended techniques and their characteristics are described. Recommendations are made regarding establishment of the adequacy, particularly with respect to precision, of the more fully developed techniques for this application, and regarding the experimental evaluation of promising developmental techniques. Measurement needs not satisfied by presently available techniques/instruments are also identified.

  8. Menopausal symptoms: do life events predict severity of symptoms in peri- and post-menopause?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenta, Filipa; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João; Ramos, Catarina

    2012-08-01

    Hormonal changes during menopausal transition are linked to physical and psychological symptoms' emergence. This study aims to explore if life events predict menopausal symptoms. This cross-sectional research encompasses a community sample of 992 women who answered to socio-demographic, health, menopause-related and lifestyle questionnaires; menopausal symptoms and life events were assessed with validated instruments. Structural equation modeling was used to build a causal model. Menopausal status predicted only three symptoms: skin/facial hair changes (β=.136; p=.020), sexual (β=.157; p=.004) and, marginally, vasomotor symptoms (β=.094; p=.054). Life events predicted depressive mood (β=-.391; p=.002), anxiety (β=-.271; p=.003), perceived cognitive impairment (β=-.295; p=.003), body shape changes (β=-.136; p=.031), aches/pain (β=-.212; p=.007), skin/facial hair changes (β=-.171; p=.021), numbness (β=-.169; p=.015), perceived loss of control (β=-.234; p=.008), mouth, nails and hair changes (β=-.290; p=.004), vasomotor (β=-.113; p=.044) and sexual symptoms (β=-.208; p=.009). Although women in peri- and post-menopausal manifested higher symptoms' severity than their pre-menopausal counterparts, only three of the menopausal symptoms assessed were predicted by menopausal status. Since the vast majority of menopausal symptoms' severity was significantly influenced by the way women perceived their recent life events, it is concluded that the symptomatology exacerbation, in peri- and post-menopausal women, might be due to life conditions and events, rather than hormonal changes (nonetheless, the inverse influence should be investigated in future studies). Therefore, these should be accounted for in menopause-related clinical and research settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Yamauchi, Masafumi; Nomura, Shinichi.

    1992-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime are proposed in this paper, and are applied to the creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated plates. Both equivalent-solid-plate properties corresponding to the macroscopic behavior and the stress-strain concentration around a hole were obtained by assuming the analogy between plasticity and creep and also by extending the authors' proposal in creep condition. The perforated plates which were made of Hastelloy XR were subjected to the strain-controlled cyclic test at 950degC in air in order to experimentally obtain the macroscopic behavior such as the cyclic stress-strain curve and creep-fatigue life around a hole. The results obtained are summarized as follows. (1) The macroscopic behavior of perforated plates including cyclic stress-strain behavior and relaxation is predictable by using the proposed method in this paper. (2) The creep-fatigue life around a hole can be predicted by using the proposed method for stress-strain concentration around a hole. (author)

  10. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  11. Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

  12. Predicting quality of life in pediatric asthma: the role of emotional competence and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahaye, Magali; Van Broeck, Nady; Bodart, Eddy; Luminet, Olivier

    2013-05-01

    The present study examined the predictive value of emotional competence and the five-factor model of personality on the quality of life of children with asthma. Participants were 90 children (M age = 11.73, SD = 2.60) having controlled and partly controlled asthma, undergoing everyday treatment. Children filled in questionnaires assessing emotional competence and quality of life. Parents completed questionnaires assessing the personality of their child. Results showed that two emotional competences, bodily awareness and verbal sharing of emotions, were related to the quality of life of children with asthma. Moreover, one personality trait, benevolence, was associated with children's quality of life. Regression analyses showed that the predictive value of these three dimensions remained significant over and above asthma control and socio-demographic variables frequently associated with the quality of life of children with asthma (age, gender, and educational level of parents). These findings emphasize the importance of alerting the clinician who works with children with asthma to observe and assess the child's expression of emotions, attention to bodily sensations, and benevolence.

  13. Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

  14. A new crack growth model for life prediction under random loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ouk Sub; Chen, Zhi Wei

    1999-01-01

    The load interaction effect in variable amplitude fatigue test is a very important issue for correctly predicting fatigue life. Some prediction methods for retardation are reviewed and the problems discussed. The so-called 'under-load' effect is also of importance for a prediction model to work properly under random load spectrum. A new model that is simple in form but combines overload plastic zone and residual stress considerations together with Elber's closure concept is proposed to fully take account of the load-interaction effects including both over-load and under-load effects. Applying this new model to complex load sequence is explored here. Simulations of tests show the improvement of the new model over other models. The best prediction (mostly closely resembling test curve) is given by the newly proposed Chen-Lee model

  15. Physically based rendering from theory to implementation

    CERN Document Server

    Pharr, Matt

    2010-01-01

    "Physically Based Rendering, 2nd Edition" describes both the mathematical theory behind a modern photorealistic rendering system as well as its practical implementation. A method - known as 'literate programming'- combines human-readable documentation and source code into a single reference that is specifically designed to aid comprehension. The result is a stunning achievement in graphics education. Through the ideas and software in this book, you will learn to design and employ a full-featured rendering system for creating stunning imagery. This book features new sections on subsurface scattering, Metropolis light transport, precomputed light transport, multispectral rendering, and much more. It includes a companion site complete with source code for the rendering system described in the book, with support for Windows, OS X, and Linux. Code and text are tightly woven together through a unique indexing feature that lists each function, variable, and method on the page that they are first described.

  16. Reviews on Physically Based Controllable Fluid Animation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pizzanu Kanongchaiyos

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In computer graphics animation, animation tools are required for fluid-like motions which are controllable by users or animator, since applying the techniques to commercial animations such as advertisement and film. Many developments have been proposed to model controllable fluid simulation with the need in realistic motion, robustness, adaptation, and support more required control model. Physically based models for different states of substances have been applied in general in order to permit animators to almost effortlessly create interesting, realistic, and sensible animation of natural phenomena such as water flow, smoke spread, etc. In this paper, we introduce the methods for simulation based on physical model and the techniques for control the flow of fluid, especially focus on particle based method. We then discuss the existing control methods within three performances; control ability, realism, and computation time. Finally, we give a brief of the current and trend of the research areas.

  17. Residual Stress Estimation and Fatigue Life Prediction of an Autofrettaged Pressure Vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Kyung Jin; Kim, Eun Kyum; Koh, Seung Kee [Kunsan Nat’l Univ., Kunsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    Fatigue failure of an autofrettaged pressure vessel with a groove at the outside surface occurs owing to the fatigue crack initiation and propagation at the groove root. In order to predict the fatigue life of the autofrettaged pressure vessel, residual stresses in the autofrettaged pressure vessel were evaluated using the finite element method, and the fatigue properties of the pressure vessel steel were obtained from the fatigue tests. Fatigue life of a pressure vessel obtained through summation of the crack initiation and propagation lives was calculated to be 2,598 cycles for an 80% autofrettaged pressure vessel subjected to a pulsating internal pressure of 424 MPa.

  18. Contribution to life-time predictions of gas turbine components under cyclic load

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoelscher, R.

    1982-02-15

    The low cycle fatique life of gas turbine components is analysed using the turbine blade of the ATAR 101 F jet engine turbine as example. The results show that, among other things thermal stresses during start-up and shut-off cause considerable damage to the material. Tests using a model rig showed that damage caused by material creep and LCF-mechanisms stongly depended on cyclic parameters such as temperature, temperature development, and power etc. Two long-term tests confirm that the Manson model can be used to give a reasonable prediction of turbine blade life.

  19. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  20. Prediction of expected years of life using whole-genome markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo de los Campos

    Full Text Available Genetic factors are believed to account for 25% of the interindividual differences in Years of Life (YL among humans. However, the genetic loci that have thus far been found to be associated with YL explain a very small proportion of the expected genetic variation in this trait, perhaps reflecting the complexity of the trait and the limitations of traditional association studies when applied to traits affected by a large number of small-effect genes. Using data from the Framingham Heart Study and statistical methods borrowed largely from the field of animal genetics (whole-genome prediction, WGP, we developed a WGP model for the study of YL and evaluated the extent to which thousands of genetic variants across the genome examined simultaneously can be used to predict interindividual differences in YL. We find that a sizable proportion of differences in YL--which were unexplained by age at entry, sex, smoking and BMI--can be accounted for and predicted using WGP methods. The contribution of genomic information to prediction accuracy was even higher than that of smoking and body mass index (BMI combined; two predictors that are considered among the most important life-shortening factors. We evaluated the impacts of familial relationships and population structure (as described by the first two marker-derived principal components and concluded that in our dataset population structure explained partially, but not fully the gains in prediction accuracy obtained with WGP. Further inspection of prediction accuracies by age at death indicated that most of the gains in predictive ability achieved with WGP were due to the increased accuracy of prediction of early mortality, perhaps reflecting the ability of WGP to capture differences in genetic risk to deadly diseases such as cancer, which are most often responsible for early mortality in our sample.

  1. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  2. Probabilistic fatigue life prediction methodology for notched components based on simple smooth fatigue tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Dept.of Engineering Mechanics, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Engineering Mechanics, Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Xin, P. P.; Song, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control of Mechanical Structures, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing (China)

    2017-01-15

    The methodology of probabilistic fatigue life prediction for notched components based on smooth specimens is presented. Weakestlink theory incorporating Walker strain model has been utilized in this approach. The effects of stress ratio and stress gradient have been considered. Weibull distribution and median rank estimator are used to describe fatigue statistics. Fatigue tests under different stress ratios were conducted on smooth and notched specimens of titanium alloy TC-1-1. The proposed procedures were checked against the test data of TC-1-1 notched specimens. Prediction results of 50 % survival rate are all within a factor of two scatter band of the test results.

  3. Imagining life with an ostomy: Does a video intervention improve quality-of-life predictions for a medical condition that may elicit disgust?☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angott, Andrea M.; Comerford, David A.; Ubel, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To test a video intervention as a way to improve predictions of mood and quality-of-life with an emotionally evocative medical condition. Such predictions are typically inaccurate, which can be consequential for decision making. Method In Part 1, people presently or formerly living with ostomies predicted how watching a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch would affect mood and quality-of-life forecasts for life with an ostomy. In Part 2, participants from the general public read a description about life with an ostomy; half also watched a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch. Participants’ quality-of-life and mood forecasts for life with an ostomy were assessed. Results Contrary to our expectations, and the expectations of people presently or formerly living with ostomies, the video did not reduce mood or quality-of-life estimates, even among participants high in trait disgust sensitivity. Among low-disgust participants, watching the video increased quality-of-life predictions for ostomy. Conclusion Video interventions may improve mood and quality-of-life forecasts for medical conditions, including those that may elicit disgust, such as ostomy. Practice implications Video interventions focusing on patients’ experience of illness continue to show promise as components of decision aids, even for emotionally charged health states such as ostomy. PMID:23177398

  4. Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy predicts psychotic experiences via behaviour problems in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Kim S; Williams, Gail M; Najman, Jakob M; Scott, James; Alati, Rosa

    2014-12-01

    Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy has been associated with later schizophrenia in offspring. We explore how prenatal stress and neurodevelopmental abnormalities in childhood associate to increase the risk of later psychotic experiences. Participants from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), an Australian based, pre-birth cohort study were examined for lifetime DSM-IV positive psychotic experiences at 21 years by a semi-structured interview (n = 2227). Structural equation modelling suggested psychotic experiences were best represented with a bifactor model including a general psychosis factor and two group factors. We tested for an association between prenatal stressful life events with the psychotic experiences, and examined for potential moderation and mediation by behaviour problems and cognitive ability in childhood. Prenatal stressful life events predicted psychotic experiences indirectly via behaviour problems at child age five years, and this relationship was not confounded by maternal stressful life events at child age five. We found no statistical evidence for an interaction between prenatal stressful life events and behaviour problems or cognitive ability. The measurable effect of prenatal stressful life events on later psychotic experiences in offspring manifested as behaviour problems by age 5. By identifying early abnormal behavioural development as an intermediary, this finding further confirms the role of prenatal stress to later psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingling; Wang, Pengchong; Chao, Kuei-Hsiang; Zhou, Yatong; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. PMID:27632176

  6. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing further development on the ANSYS platform, the anisotropic elastoplastic damage mechanics-finite element method is developed. The fatigue crack propagation life of satellite structure is predicted using the present method and the computational results comply with the experimental data very well.

  7. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span.

  8. The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

    1983-01-01

    The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

  9. International Space Station Bacteria Filter Element Post-Flight Testing and Service Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, J. L.; von Jouanne, R. G.; Turner, E. H.

    2003-01-01

    The International Space Station uses high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters to remove particulate matter from the cabin atmosphere. Known as Bacteria Filter Elements (BFEs), there are 13 elements deployed on board the ISS's U.S. Segment. The pre-flight service life prediction of 1 year for the BFEs is based upon performance engineering analysis of data collected during developmental testing that used a synthetic dust challenge. While this challenge is considered reasonable and conservative from a design perspective, an understanding of the actual filter loading is required to best manage the critical ISS Program resources. Thus testing was conducted on BFEs returned from the ISS to refine the service life prediction. Results from this testing and implications to ISS resource management are discussed. Recommendations for realizing significant savings to the ISS Program are presented.

  10. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Bridge Cables Based on Multiscaling and Mesoscopic Fracture Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongxiang Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue fracture of bridge stay-cables is usually a multiscale process as the crack grows from micro-scale to macro-scale. Such a process, however, is highly uncertain. In order to make a rational prediction of the residual life of bridge cables, a probabilistic fatigue approach is proposed, based on a comprehensive vehicle load model, finite element analysis and multiscaling and mesoscopic fracture mechanics. Uncertainties in both material properties and external loads are considered. The proposed method is demonstrated through the fatigue life prediction of cables of the Runyang Cable-Stayed Bridge in China, and it is found that cables along the bridge spans may have significantly different fatigue lives, and due to the variability, some of them may have shorter lives than those as expected from the design.

  11. Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

    2013-01-01

    The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

  12. New considerations on variability of creep rupture data and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seon Jin; Jeong, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in thee creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time and state steady creep rate on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model.

  13. New Considerations on Variability of Creep Rupture Data and Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik; Kim, Seon Jin

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in the creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time (RT) and steady state creep rate (SSCR) on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model

  14. Numerical analysis of rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway crossing

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact. Material model accounting for elastic- plastic isotropic and kinematic hardening effects is adopted. The results from FE analysis are combined with J-S fatigue model that is based on critical plan...

  15. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  16. An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

    2016-08-01

    Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  17. The Fatigue Life Prediction of Train Wheel Rims Containing Spherical Inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yajie; Chen, Huanguo; Cai, Li; Chen, Pei; Qian, Jiacheng; Wu, Jianwei

    2018-03-01

    It is a common phenomenon that fatigue crack initiation occurs frequently in the inclusions of wheel rims. Research on the fatigue life of wheel rims with spherical inclusions is of great significance on the reliability of wheels. To find the danger point and working condition of a wheel, the stress state of the wheel rim with spherical inclusions was analyzed using the finite element method. Results revealed that curve conditions are dangerous. The critical plane method, based on the cumulative fatigue damage theory, was used to predict the fatigue life of the wheel rim and whether it contained spherical inclusions or not under curve conditions. It was found that the fatigue life of the wheel rim is significantly shorter when the wheel rim contains spherical inclusions. Analysis of the results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for train operations and maintenance.

  18. Fatigue Life Analysis and Prediction of 316L Stainless Steel Under Low Cycle Fatigue Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Hyeong; Myung, NohJun; Choi, Nak-Sam [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    In this study, a strain-controlled fatigue test of widely-used 316L stainless steel with excellent corrosion resistance and mechanical properties was conducted, in order to assess its fatigue life. Low cycle fatigue behaviors were analyzed at room temperature, as a function of the strain amplitude and strain ratio. The material was hardened during the initial few cycles, and then was softened during the long post period, until failure occurred. The fatigue life decreased with increasing strain amplitude. Masing behavior in the hysteresis loop was shown under the low strain amplitude, whereas the high strain amplitude caused non-Masing behavior and reduced the mean stress. Low cycle fatigue life prediction based on the cyclic plastic energy dissipation theory, considering Masing and non-Masing effects, showed a good correlation with the experimental results.

  19. Prediction of fatigue life under service loading using the relative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, A.

    1982-01-01

    Fatigue life estimates obtained with the local strain approach (LSA) and with the conventional nominal stress approach (NSA) were compared with experimental results obtained on notched AlCuMg2 aircraft material specimens with flight simulation random tensile loading. The effect of change of the reference stress, of the loading program and of some changes in the loading frequency distribution, on the ratio Nsub(exp)/Nsub(pred) was investigated. A material strain-life curve, a cyclic stress-strain curve. The Neuber-Topper rule Ksub(sigma) x Ksub(epsilon) = K 2 = const. and a K value estimated with an exact two-parameter notch factor formula for the case R = 0, N = 10 7 were used for life predictions. (orig./RW) [de

  20. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  1. [A predictive model for the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia, María Teresa; Araya, Alejandra; Rivera, Soledad; Viviani, Paola; Villarroel, Luis

    2007-03-01

    The effects of hysterectomy on sexuality has been extensively studied. To establish a model to predict the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women, six months after surgery. Analytical, longitudinal and prospective study of 90 hysterectomized women aged 45+/-7 years. Two structured interviews at the time of surgery and six months later were carried out to determine the characteristics of sexuality and communication within the couple. In the two interviews, communication and the quality of sexual life were described as "good" in 72 and 77% of women, respectively (NS). The variables that had a 40% influence on the quality of sexual life sixth months after surgery, were oophorectomy status, the presence of orgasm, the characteristics of communication and the basal sexuality with the couple. The sexuality of the hysterectomized women will depend, on a great extent, of pre-surgical variables. Therefore, it is important to consider these variables for the education of hysterectomized women.

  2. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J M; Middleton, C J; Aplin, P F [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  3. Assessment and propagation of mechanical property uncertainties in fatigue life prediction of composite laminates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castro, Oscar; Branner, Kim; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2018-01-01

    amplitude loading cycles. Fatigue life predictions of unidirectional and multi-directional glass/epoxy laminates are carried out to validate the proposed model against experimental data. The probabilistic fatigue behavior of laminates is analyzed under constant amplitude loading conditions as well as under......A probabilistic model for estimating the fatigue life of laminated composite materials considering the uncertainty in their mechanical properties is developed. The uncertainty in the material properties is determined from fatigue coupon tests. Based on this uncertainty, probabilistic constant life...... diagrams are developed which can efficiently estimate probabilistic É›-N curves at any load level and stress ratio. The probabilistic É›-N curve information is used in a reliability analysis for fatigue limit state proposed for estimating the probability of failure of composite laminates under variable...

  4. A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Yong Yu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB and Fatemi-Socie (FS models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models.

  5. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  6. Factors predicting quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, N; Akkadechanunt, T; Chontawan, R; Klunklin, A

    2018-06-01

    This study examined the level of quality of work life and predictability of years of education, monthly income, years of experience, job stress, organizational commitment and work environment on quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals in the People's Republic of Bangladesh. There is an acute shortage of nurses worldwide including Bangladesh. Quality of work life is important for quality of patient care and nurse retention. Nurses in Bangladesh are fighting to provide quality care for emerging health problems for the achievement of sustainable development goals. We collected data from 288 randomly selected registered nurses, from six tertiary-level hospitals. All nurses were requested to fill questionnaire consisted of Demographic Data Sheet, Quality of Nursing Work Life Survey, Expanded Nursing Stress Scale, Questionnaire of Organizational Commitment and Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index. Data were analysed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The quality of work life as perceived by nurses in Bangladesh was at moderate level. Monthly income was found as the best predictor followed by work environment, organizational commitment and job stress. A higher monthly income helps nurses to fulfil their personal needs; positive work environment helps to provide quality care to the patients. Quality of work life and predictors measured by self-report only may not reflect the original picture of the quality of work life among nurses. Findings provide information for nursing and health policymakers to develop policies to improve quality of work life among nurses that can contribute to quality of nursing care. This includes the working environment, commitment to the organization and measures to reduce job stress. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

  7. Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

    2018-05-01

    A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

  8. How do Major, Violent and Nonviolent Opposition Campaigns, Impact Predicted Life Expectancy at birth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Stoddard

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of major violent and nonviolent opposition campaigns for regime change, on predicted life expectancy at birth. The study measured life expectancy five and ten years after the campaign ended, so that deaths which occurred during the campaign would not be included in the metric, and thus enabling the study of changes made in the state on the social determinants affecting longevity, after the campaign was over. Life expectancy is one of the best reported World Development Indicators and is considered to be a good indication of the overall health and general living conditions of the state and therefore is an ideal indicator to reflect the changes made in the state following a major campaign. The results of this analysis showed that states have a hard time recovering from a major opposition campaign and initially drop behind the growth trend in the world average for predicted life expectancy at birth. But, the type of campaign that was waged and whether it was successful, greatly affects the state’s ability to recover. Encouragingly by a decade after the campaign ends, states that experienced a nonviolent campaign that was successful had caught up to the world average and inched ahead of it. This shows that on this important development indicator, new governments that were ushered into power by nonviolent social movements, had made positive changes in the state that enabled it to surpass world averages.

  9. Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Formetta

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3 and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input–output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy along the Salerno–Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide

  10. Toward Inverse Control of Physics-Based Sound Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfalz, A.; Berdahl, E.

    2017-05-01

    Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) can be trained to realize inverse control of physics-based sound synthesizers. Physics-based sound synthesizers simulate the laws of physics to produce output sound according to input gesture signals. When a user's gestures are measured in real time, she or he can use them to control physics-based sound synthesizers, thereby creating simulated virtual instruments. An intriguing question is how to program a computer to learn to play such physics-based models. This work demonstrates that LSTMs can be trained to accomplish this inverse control task with four physics-based sound synthesizers.

  11. Application of Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho Vieira, Bianca; Martins, Tiago D.

    2017-04-01

    Shallow landslides and floods are the processes responsible for most material and environmental damages in Brazil. In the last decades, some landslides events induce a high number of deaths (e.g. Over 1000 deaths in one event) and incalculable social and economic losses. Therefore, the prediction of those processes is considered an important tool for land use planning tools. Among different methods the physically based landslide susceptibility models having been widely used in many countries, but in Brazil it is still incipient when compared to other ones, like statistical tools and frequency analyses. Thus, the main objective of this research was to assess the application of some Physically based landslide susceptibility models in Brazil, identifying their main results, the efficiency of susceptibility mapping, parameters used and limitations of the tropical humid environment. In order to achieve that, it was evaluated SHALSTAB, SINMAP and TRIGRS models in some studies in Brazil along with the Geotechnical values, scales, DEM grid resolution and the results based on the analysis of the agreement between predicted susceptibility and the landslide scar's map. Most of the studies in Brazil applied SHALSTAB, SINMAP and to a lesser extent the TRIGRS model. The majority researches are concentrated in the Serra do Mar mountain range, that is a system of escarpments and rugged mountains that extends more than 1,500 km along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast, and regularly affected by heavy rainfall that generates widespread mass movements. Most part of these studies used conventional topographic maps with scales ranging from 1:2000 to 1:50000 and DEM-grid resolution between 2 and 20m. Regarding the Geotechnical and hydrological values, a few studies use field collected data which could produce more efficient results, as indicated by international literature. Therefore, even though they have enormous potential in the susceptibility mapping, even for comparison

  12. The development of techniques for determining the residual life time prediction on NPP equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonov, Alexander V.; Dagaev, Alexander V.; Volnikov, Ivan S.

    1999-01-01

    The problem of determining the residual life prediction of NPP equipment is presently highly pressing. NPP residual life resources are 30 years, but for particular equipment it is much less. Thus, residual life resource for equipment of control and protection system of NPP unit is 5-10 years. The NPP equipment is expensive and its replacing requires much expense. Hence an urgent problem is to study residual life resources of equipment on the basis of statistic information obtained during operation. Deterministic approach of determining residual life resources for particular equipment is widely known in the literature. Physical and statistical models are also being developed for determining the residual life, e.g. the model (loading-bearing capability). The present work offers the techniques of the residual life determination reasoning from statistic information of functioning objects in the process of operation. To put the techniques into effect it is necessary to have information about the time of operation of a group of objects of the same type, the number of failures; it is desirable to know failure operating time, order of the object replacement and the reason which caused the replacement (failure or planned preventive maintenance). Metrics is based on studying the parameters for the series of failures resulted from real statistic data. Then we can proceed to distribution density of the failure working time. For this purpose the Voltarra's equation of the second order is solved f(t) = ω(t) + ∫ 0 t f(t - τ)ω(τ)dτ. Since statistics of data sampling related to failure is small due to difficulties in solution of Voltaire's equation, the authors offer moderate method of solution for the above equation. After distribution density of the failure working time is determined the calculation of equipment residual life is made by the following formula: T τ (t) 1/P(τ)∫ 0 ∞ P(t)dt. The proposed techniques are realised as the software. In the course of working

  13. Fatigue Life Prediction in Rapid Die Casting - Preliminary Work in View of Current Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuan Huat Ng; Grote, Karl-Heinrich; Baehr, Ruediger

    2007-01-01

    Numerical simulation technique as a prediction tool is slowly adopted in metal casting industry for predicting design modelling solidification analysis. The reasons for this activity is found in the need to further enhance the geometrical design and mechanical properties of the tool design and the correct prediction methodology to fulfil industrial needs. The present state of numerical simulation capabilities in rapid die casting technologies is reviewed and the failure mode mechanisms of thermal fatigue, aimed at developing a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance for predicting the thermal cyclic loading analysis and improvement is presented along with several other methods. The economic benefits of a numerical simulation technique in die casting are limited to tool life time, mechanical properties and design guidance. The extensive computer capabilities of a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance methodology are exploited to provide a solution for flexible design, mechanical properties and mould life time. Related research carried out worldwide by different organisations and academic institutions are discussed

  14. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  15. Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Engine using Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahsan Shazaib

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Gas turbine (GT engines are known for their high availability and reliability and are extensively used for power generation, marine and aero-applications. Maintenance of such complex machines should be done proactively to reduce cost and sustain high availability of the GT. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of autoregressive (AR models to predict remaining useful life (RUL of a GT engine. The Turbofan Engine data from NASA benchmark data repository is used as case study. The parametric investigation is performed to check on any effect of changing model parameter on modelling accuracy. Results shows that a single sensory data cannot accurately predict RUL of GT and further research need to be carried out by incorporating multi-sensory data. Furthermore, the predictions made using AR model seems to give highly pessimistic values for RUL of GT.

  16. RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

    2014-09-01

    We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

  17. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  18. Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

  19. Do Proxies for the Neurotransmitter Cortisol Predict Adaptation to Life with Chronic Pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deamond, Wade

    Among the numerous difficulties encountered by chronic pain patients, impulsive and dysfunctional decision-making complicate their already difficult life situations yet remains relatively understudied. This study examined a recently published neurobiological decision making model that identifies eight specific neurotransmitters and hormones (Dopamine, Testosterone, Endogenous Opioids Glutamate, Serotonin, Norepinephrine, Cortisol, and GABA) linked to unsound decision making related to cognitive, motivational and emotional dysregulation (Nussbaum et al., 2011) (see Appendix 2). The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), a proxy for the cortisol element in the pharmacological decision making model was analyzed for the neurotransmitter's relationship to functionality and quality of life in a group of 37 chronic pain patients. Participants were comprised of males and females ranging from 23 to 52 years of age and were classified with respect to levels of adjustment to living with chronic pain based on the Quality of Life Scale (QLS), the Dartmouth WONCA COOP Charts and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Frontal System Behavioral Scale (FSBS) measured decision making related to immediate gratification and daily living respectively. Results suggest that emotional dysregulation, as measured by the PSS is a significant predictor for adaptation to life with chronic pain and the PSS is superior to predicting adaptation to life with chronic pain than reported levels of pain as measured by the McGill Pain Questionnaire.

  20. Flexural fatigue life prediction of closed hat-section using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaq, Zia

    1989-01-01

    Straight or curved hat-section members are often used as structural stiffeners in aircraft. For instance, they are employed as stiffeners for the dorsal skin as well as in the aerial refueling adjacent area structure in F-106 aircraft. The flanges of the hat-section are connected to the aircraft skin. Thus, the portion of the skin closing the hat-section interacts with the section itself when resisting the stresses due to service loads. The flexural fatigue life of such a closed section is estimated using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics. It should be recognized that when a structural shape is subjected to bending, the fatigue life at the neutral axis is infinity since the normal stresses are zero at that location. Conversely, the fatigue life at the extreme fibers where the normal bending stresses are maximum can be expected to be finite. Thus, different fatigue life estimates can be visualized at various distances from the neural axis. The problem becomes compounded further when significant portions away from the neutral axis are stressed into plastic range. A theoretical analysis of the closed hat-section subjected to flexural cyclic loading is first conducted. The axial fatigue characteristics together with the related axial fatigue life formula and its inverted form given by Manson and Muralidharan are adopted for an aluminum alloy used in aircraft construction. A closed-form expression for predicting the flexural fatigue life is then derived for the closed hat-section including materially nonlinear action. A computer program is written to conduct a study of the variables such as the thicknesses of the hat-section and the skin, and the type of alloy used. The study has provided a fundamental understanding of the flexural fatigue life characteristics of a practical structural component used in aircraft when materially nonlinear action is present.

  1. Predicting the life-time benefit of school-based smoking prevention programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Aveyard, Paul; Barton, Pelham; Meads, Catherine A

    2010-06-01

    School-based smoking prevention programmes may delay the age of smoking initiation, but do not appear to achieve lasting reductions in smoking prevalence beyond school-leaving age. We explored whether delaying the age at which someone initiates smoking may have life-time benefits by increasing the likelihood of quitting in later life. Data from the General Household Survey of Great Britain were used in a logistic regression model to examine the association between age at which someone initiates regular smoking and the probability that the person will quit smoking later in life. The effect of confounding variables (sex, ethnicity, socio-economic class, education and geographical location) was taken into account. The predicted relationship was used in a cohort model to estimate the life-time reduction in smoking prevalence and all-cause mortality of a school-based smoking prevention programme. Age of regular smoking initiation was associated strongly with the probability of quitting later in life (coefficient -0.103, P < 0.001). The strength of the association was slightly reduced but still significant when confounding variables were included (coefficient -0.075, P < 0.001). An intervention that delays smoking initiation without decreasing smoking prevalence at age 18 may reduce adult smoking prevalence by 0.13-0.32% (depending on age) and all-cause mortality by 0.09% over the life-time of the sample. School-based smoking prevention programmes have potential for a beneficial effect over the life-time of the participants even if they have no apparent effect at school-leaving age.

  2. Fatigue, fracture, and life prediction criteria for composite materials in magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, F.M.G.

    1990-06-01

    An explosively-bonded copper/Inconel 718/copper laminate conductor was proposed to withstand the severe face compression stresses in the central core of the Alcator C-MOD tokamak toroidal field (TF) magnet. Due to the severe duty of the TF magnet, it is critical that an accurate estimate of useful life be determined. As part of the effort to formulate an appropriate life prediction, fatigue crack growth experiments were performed on the laminate as well as its components. Metallographic evaluation of the laminate interface revealed many shear bands in the Inconel 718. Shear bands and shear band cracks were produced in the Inconel 718 as a result of the explosion bonding process. These shear bands were shown to have a detrimental effect on the crack growth behavior of the laminate, by significantly reducing the load carrying capability of the reinforcement layer and providing for easy crack propagation paths. Fatigue crack growth rate was found not only to be dependent on temperature but also on orientation. Fatigue cracks grew faster in directions which contained shear bands in the plane of the propagating crack. Fractography showed crack advancement by fatigue cracking in the Inconel 718 and ductile tearing of the copper at the interface. However, further away from the interfaces, the copper exhibited fatigue striations indicating that cracks were now propagating by fatigue. Laminate life prediction results showed a strong dependence on shear band orientation, and exhibited little variation between room temperature and 77 degree K. Predicted life of this laminate was lower when the crack propagation was along a shear band than when crack propagation was across the shear bands. Shear bands appear to have a dominating effect on crack growth behavior

  3. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  4. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  5. Life prediction for high temperature low cycle fatigue of two kinds of titanium alloys based on exponential function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, G. Y.; Mi, X. Z.; Wang, F.

    2018-01-01

    The high temperature low cycle fatigue tests of TC4 titanium alloy and TC11 titanium alloy are carried out under strain controlled. The relationships between cyclic stress-life and strain-life are analyzed. The high temperature low cycle fatigue life prediction model of two kinds of titanium alloys is established by using Manson-Coffin method. The relationship between failure inverse number and plastic strain range presents nonlinear in the double logarithmic coordinates. Manson-Coffin method assumes that they have linear relation. Therefore, there is bound to be a certain prediction error by using the Manson-Coffin method. In order to solve this problem, a new method based on exponential function is proposed. The results show that the fatigue life of the two kinds of titanium alloys can be predicted accurately and effectively by using these two methods. Prediction accuracy is within ±1.83 times scatter zone. The life prediction capability of new methods based on exponential function proves more effective and accurate than Manson-Coffin method for two kinds of titanium alloys. The new method based on exponential function can give better fatigue life prediction results with the smaller standard deviation and scatter zone than Manson-Coffin method. The life prediction results of two methods for TC4 titanium alloy prove better than TC11 titanium alloy.

  6. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  7. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  8. A method for gear fatigue life prediction considering the internal flow field of the gear pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haidong; Li, Zhiqiang; Qi, Lele; Qiao, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Gear pump is the most widely used volume type hydraulic pump, and it is the main power source of the hydraulic system. Its performance is influenced by many factors, such as working environment, maintenance, fluid pressure and so on. It is different from the gear transmission system, the internal flow field of gear pump has a greater impact on the gear life, therefore it needs to consider the internal hydraulic system when predicting the gear fatigue life. In this paper, a certain aircraft gear pump as the research object, aim at the typical failure forms, gear contact fatigue, of gear pump, proposing the prediction method based on the virtual simulation. The method use CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) software to analyze pressure distribution of internal flow field of the gear pump, and constructed the unidirectional flow-solid coupling model of gear to acquire the contact stress of tooth surface on Ansys workbench software. Finally, employing nominal stress method and Miner cumulative damage theory to calculated the gear contact fatigue life based on modified material P-S-N curve. Engineering practice show that the method is feasible and efficient.

  9. Degradation model and application in life prediction of rotating-mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Yuhui

    2009-01-01

    The degradation data can provide additional information beyond that provided by the failure observations, both sets of observations need to be considered when doing inference on the statistical parameters of the product and system lifetime distributions. By the degradation model showing the wear out failure, the predicted results of mechanism life is more accurate. Strength is one of the important capabilities of the rotating mechanism. In this paper, the degradation data of strength are described as a stochastic process model. Accelerated tests expose the products to greater environmental stress levels so that we can obtain lifetime and degradation measurements in a more timely fashion. Using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimation (BLUE) Method, the parameters under the degradation path were estimated from the accelerated life test (ALT) data of the rotating mechanism. Based on solving the singularity of degradation equation, at any time the reliability is estimated by the using the strength-stress interference theory. So we can predict the life of the rotating mechanism. (authors)

  10. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean; Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon

    2015-01-01

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  11. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  12. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  13. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  14. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  15. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameallah, S; Kadkhodaei, M; Legrand, V; Saint-Sulpice, L; Arbab Chirani, S

    2015-01-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure. (paper)

  16. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sameallah, S.; Legrand, V.; Saint-Sulpice, L.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Arbab Chirani, S.

    2015-02-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure.

  17. Monitoring Shelf Life of Pasteurized Whole Milk Under Refrigerated Storage Conditions: Predictive Models for Quality Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziyaina, Mohamed; Govindan, Byju N; Rasco, Barbara; Coffey, Todd; Sablani, Shyam S

    2018-02-01

    The shelf life of pasteurized milk is generally determined through microbiological analysis. The objective of this study was to correlate microbial quality parameters then to design predictive models for shelf life of pasteurized milk. We analyzed pasteurized milk (3.9% fat) for aerobic plate counts (APCs), psychrotrophic bacteria counts (PBCs), and Bacillus spp. counts at 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, and 19 (±1 °C) to the end of storage time. We also monitored titratable acidity, pH, and, lipase, and protease activity and correlated this with APC, which is the principal index defining shelf life. Results indicate that the shelf life of pasteurized milk was 24, 36, and 72 h at 19, 15, and 13 °C respectively, as determined by APC and acidity indicators. However, milk stored at lower temperatures of 5, 7, and 10 °C had longer shelf life of 30, 24, and 12 d, respectively. A sharp increase in titratable acidity, while decrease pH were observed when APCs reached 5.0 log 10 CFU/mL at all storage temperatures. Lipase and protease activities increased with storage temperature. At 5 and 7 °C, however, protease activity was very low. Therefore, we eliminated this parameter from our quality parameters as a potential spoilage indicator. Findings of this research are useful for monitoring the quality of commercial pasteurized milk, particularly in locations where environmental conditions make longer storage difficult. The study also provides valuable information for development of colorimetric shelf life indicators. © 2018 Institute of Food Technologists®.

  18. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, J.C. Jr.; Phillips, E.P.; Swain, M.H.; Everett, R.A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis. 29 refs

  20. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later. PMID:24563560

  1. The Role of Big Five Personality Factors and Defense Mechanisms in Predicting Quality of Life in Sexually Dysfunctional Female Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. salary

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sexual dysfunction can lead to behavioral problems and reduction in a person's quality of life. In 50 % of patients with personality disorders, there is also sexual dysfunction. Psychoanalysis approach attributes the cause of sexual dysfunction to a kind of fundamental anxiety as well as the use of immature mechanisms in these patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of big five personality traits and defensive mechanisms in predicting these patients' quality of life. Statistical sample of this research included 80 women attending sexual health and family clinics of Shahed University using accessible sampling during 2010 and 2011. These subjects were given the Neo Personality Inventory Traits, Defensive Mechanisms, and the World Health organization Quality of Life Questionnaires to answer. The findings showed that personality traits could predict the quality of life in woman with sexual dysfunction. Moreover, among those five personality traits, neuroticism (:./24 P=./04 and conscientiousness(:./31 P=./03 were able to predict the quality of life while predictability rate of both factors was 37% of variance on the whole (p=0/05. Based on regression analysis, there was a significant relationship between the quality of life and defensive mechanisms so that using more mature defensive mechanisms (:./37 P=./006 and immature defensive mechanisms (:-./31 P= ./02 could significantly predict quality of life (p=0/0001. Also, neurotic defensive mechanisms were not significant predictors of these women' quality of life. (;./04 P=./78.

  2. Shelf-Life Prediction of Extra Virgin Olive Oils Using an Empirical Model Based on Standard Quality Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extra virgin olive oil shelf-life could be defined as the length of time under normal storage conditions within which no off-flavours or defects are developed and quality parameters such as peroxide value and specific absorbance are retained within accepted limits for this commercial category. Prediction of shelf-life is a desirable goal in the food industry. Even when extra virgin olive oil shelf-life should be one of the most important quality markers for extra virgin olive oil, it is not recognised as a legal parameter in most regulations and standards around the world. The proposed empirical formula to be evaluated in the present study is based on common quality tests with known and predictable result changes over time and influenced by different aspects of extra virgin olive oil with a meaningful influence over its shelf-life. The basic quality tests considered in the formula are Rancimat® or induction time (IND; 1,2-diacylglycerols (DAGs; pyropheophytin a (PPP; and free fatty acids (FFA. This paper reports research into the actual shelf-life of commercially packaged extra virgin olive oils versus the predicted shelf-life of those oils determined by analysing the expected deterioration curves for the three basic quality tests detailed above. Based on the proposed model, shelf-life is predicted by choosing the lowest predicted shelf-life of any of those three tests.

  3. The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

    1978-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

  4. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    of wood moisture are done by in-situ resistance moisture meters (Lindegaard and Morsing 2006). The aim is that the test should form the basis of evaluation of the maintenance requirements and the prediction of service life of the surface treatment and the wood/construction. At the moment 60 test racks...... are exposed. This study examines the data from the first five years of outdoor exposure using data from a test rack with a water-borne acrylic coating and a test rack with ICP coating for case studies. The moisture content data was converted into weekly average and weekly variation values which gave a deeper...

  5. Interactive physically-based sound simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghuvanshi, Nikunj

    The realization of interactive, immersive virtual worlds requires the ability to present a realistic audio experience that convincingly compliments their visual rendering. Physical simulation is a natural way to achieve such realism, enabling deeply immersive virtual worlds. However, physically-based sound simulation is very computationally expensive owing to the high-frequency, transient oscillations underlying audible sounds. The increasing computational power of desktop computers has served to reduce the gap between required and available computation, and it has become possible to bridge this gap further by using a combination of algorithmic improvements that exploit the physical, as well as perceptual properties of audible sounds. My thesis is a step in this direction. My dissertation concentrates on developing real-time techniques for both sub-problems of sound simulation: synthesis and propagation. Sound synthesis is concerned with generating the sounds produced by objects due to elastic surface vibrations upon interaction with the environment, such as collisions. I present novel techniques that exploit human auditory perception to simulate scenes with hundreds of sounding objects undergoing impact and rolling in real time. Sound propagation is the complementary problem of modeling the high-order scattering and diffraction of sound in an environment as it travels from source to listener. I discuss my work on a novel numerical acoustic simulator (ARD) that is hundred times faster and consumes ten times less memory than a high-accuracy finite-difference technique, allowing acoustic simulations on previously-intractable spaces, such as a cathedral, on a desktop computer. Lastly, I present my work on interactive sound propagation that leverages my ARD simulator to render the acoustics of arbitrary static scenes for multiple moving sources and listener in real time, while accounting for scene-dependent effects such as low-pass filtering and smooth attenuation

  6. Structural Acoustic Physics Based Modeling of Curved Composite Shells

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-19

    NUWC-NPT Technical Report 12,236 19 September 2017 Structural Acoustic Physics -Based Modeling of Curved Composite Shells Rachel E. Hesse...SUBTITLE Structural Acoustic Physics -Based Modeling of Curved Composite Shells 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...study was to use physics -based modeling (PBM) to investigate wave propagations through curved shells that are subjected to acoustic excitation. An

  7. Energy Dissipation-Based Method for Fatigue Life Prediction of Rock Salt

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mingming; Huang, Bingqian; Zhu, Caihui; Chen, Yunsheng; Li, Ning

    2018-05-01

    The fatigue test for rock salt is conducted under different stress amplitudes, loading frequencies, confining pressures and loading rates, from which the evaluation rule of the dissipated energy is revealed and analysed. The evolution of energy dissipation under fatigue loading is divided into three stages: the initial stage, the second stage and the acceleration stage. In the second stage, the energy dissipation per cycle remains stable and shows an exponential relation with the stress amplitude; the failure dissipated energy only depends on the mechanical behaviour of the rock salt and confining pressure, but it is immune to the loading conditions. The energy dissipation of fatigued rock salt is discussed, and a novel model for fatigue life prediction is proposed on the basis of energy dissipation. A simple model for evolution of the accumulative dissipated energy is established. Its prediction results are compared with the test results, and the proposed model is validated.

  8. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  9. New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotrechko, S.A.; Meshkov, Yu.Ya.; Neklyudov, I.M.; Revka, V.N.

    2011-01-01

    New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel is presented. Equation for limiting state of reactor pressure vessel wall with crack-like defect is obtained. It is exhibited that the value of critical fluence Φ c may be determined not by shift of critical temperature of fracture of surveillance specimen, which is indirect characteristic, but by direct method, namely, by the condition of initiation of brittle fracture of irradiated metal ahead of a crack in RPV wall. Within the framework of engineering version of LA to fracture the technique for Φ c ascertainment is developed. Prediction of Φ c for WWER pressure vessels demonstrates potentialities of this technique.

  10. Physics-Based Pneumatic Hammer Instability Model, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Florida Turbine Technologies (FTT) proposes to conduct research necessary to develop a physics-based pneumatic hammer instability model for hydrostatic bearings...

  11. [Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

    2013-09-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the

  12. Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan LI

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.

  13. Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Wang Pingfeng; Taek Yoon, Joung

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics aims at determining whether a failure of an engineered system (e.g., a nuclear power plant) is impending and estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) before the failure occurs. The traditional data-driven prognostic approach is to construct multiple candidate algorithms using a training data set, evaluate their respective performance using a testing data set, and select the one with the best performance while discarding all the others. This approach has three shortcomings: (i) the selected standalone algorithm may not be robust; (ii) it wastes the resources for constructing the algorithms that are discarded; (iii) it requires the testing data in addition to the training data. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposes an ensemble data-driven prognostic approach which combines multiple member algorithms with a weighted-sum formulation. Three weighting schemes, namely the accuracy-based weighting, diversity-based weighting and optimization-based weighting, are proposed to determine the weights of member algorithms. The k-fold cross validation (CV) is employed to estimate the prediction error required by the weighting schemes. The results obtained from three case studies suggest that the ensemble approach with any weighting scheme gives more accurate RUL predictions compared to any sole algorithm when member algorithms producing diverse RUL predictions have comparable prediction accuracy and that the optimization-based weighting scheme gives the best overall performance among the three weighting schemes.

  14. Genomic biomarkers of prenatal intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue predict later life neurological outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sloane K Tilley

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is a major risk factor for neurodevelopmental delays and disorders. This study aimed to identify genomic biomarkers of intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue in preterm neonates that predict cognitive impairment at 10 years of age.Genome-wide messenger RNA (mRNA levels from umbilical cord tissue were obtained from 43 neonates born before 28 weeks of gestation. Genes that were differentially expressed across four indicators of intrauterine inflammation were identified and their functions examined. Exact logistic regression was used to test whether expression levels in umbilical cord tissue predicted neurocognitive function at 10 years of age.Placental indicators of inflammation were associated with changes in the mRNA expression of 445 genes in umbilical cord tissue. Transcripts with decreased expression showed significant enrichment for biological signaling processes related to neuronal development and growth. The altered expression of six genes was found to predict neurocognitive impairment when children were 10 years old These genes include two that encode for proteins involved in neuronal development.Prenatal intrauterine inflammation is associated with altered gene expression in umbilical cord tissue. A set of six of the differentially expressed genes predict cognitive impairment later in life, suggesting that the fetal environment is associated with significant adverse effects on neurodevelopment that persist into later childhood.

  15. [Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

    2017-01-01

    The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

  16. Simplified Physics Based Models Research Topical Report on Task #2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Ganesh, Priya

    2014-10-31

    We present a simplified-physics based approach, where only the most important physical processes are modeled, to develop and validate simplified predictive models of CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. We use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Similar correlations are also developed to predict the average pressure within the injection reservoir, and the pressure buildup within the caprock.

  17. A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Endreny, Theodore A.; Nowak, David J.

    2013-09-01

    Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat storage based on semiempirical functions and generates spatially distributed estimates based on inputs of topography, land cover, and the weather data measured at a reference site. The model assumes that for all grids under the same mesoscale climate, grid air temperature and humidity are modified by local variation in absorbed solar radiation and the partitioning of sensible and latent heat. The model uses a reference grid site for time series meteorological data and the air temperature and humidity of any other grid can be obtained by solving the heat flux network equations. PASATH was coupled with the USDA iTree-Hydro water balance model to obtain evapotranspiration terms and run from 20 to 29 August 2010 at a 360 m by 360 m grid scale and hourly time step across a 285 km2 watershed including the urban area of Syracuse, NY. PASATH predictions were tested at nine urban weather stations representing variability in urban topography and land cover. The PASATH model predictive efficiency R2 ranged from 0.81 to 0.99 for air temperature and 0.77 to 0.97 for dew point temperature. PASATH is expected to have broad applications on environmental and ecological models.

  18. Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive-Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation across Life Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

    2010-01-01

    Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to…

  19. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  20. A review on fatigue life prediction methods for anti-vibration rubber materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli WANG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anti-vibration rubber, because of its superior elasticity, plasticity, waterproof and trapping characteristics, is widely used in the automotive industry, national defense, construction and other fields. The theory and technology of predicting fatigue life is of great significance to improve the durability design and manufacturing of anti-vibration rubber products. According to the characteristics of the anti-vibration rubber products in service, the technical difficulties for analyzing fatigue properties of anti-vibration rubber materials are pointed out. The research progress of the fatigue properties of rubber materials is reviewed from three angles including methods of fatigue crack initiation, fatigue crack propagation and fatigue damage accumulation. It is put forward that some nonlinear characteristics of rubber under fatigue loading, including the Mullins effect, permanent deformation and cyclic stress softening, should be considered in the further study of rubber materials. Meanwhile, it is indicated that the fatigue damage accumulation method based on continuum damage mechanics might be more appropriate to solve fatigue damage and life prediction problems for complex rubber materials and structures under fatigue loading.

  1. An adaptive-order particle filter for remaining useful life prediction of aviation piston pumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongyang LI

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL not only contributes to an effective application of an aviation piston pump, but also meets the necessity of condition based maintenance (CBM. For the current RUL evaluation methods, a model-based method is inappropriate for the degradation process of an aviation piston pump due to difficulties of modeling, while a data-based method rarely presents high-accuracy prediction in a long period of time. In this work, an adaptive-order particle filter (AOPF prognostic process is proposed aiming at improving long-term prediction accuracy of RUL by combining both kinds of methods. A dynamic model is initialized by a data-driven or empirical method. When a new observation comes, the prior state distribution is approximated by a current model. The order of the current model is updated adaptively by fusing the information of the observation. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for estimating the posterior probability density function of future states of the pump’s degradation. With updating the order number adaptively, the method presents a higher precision in contrast with those of traditional methods. In a case study, the proposed AOPF method is adopted to forecast the degradation status of an aviation piston pump with experimental return oil flow data, and the analytical results show the effectiveness of the proposed AOPF method. Keywords: Adaptive prognosis, Condition based maintenance (CBM, Particle filter (PF, Piston pump, Remaining useful life (RUL

  2. An analytical method to predict fatigue life of thermoplastics in uniaxial loading: sensitivity to wave type, frequency and stress amplitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, R.P.M.; Govaert, L.E.; Meijer, H.E.H.

    2008-01-01

    A method is presented that allows fatigue life predictions on the basis of creep life data. The approach is based on the assumption that the time-dependent failure of polymers is determined by the intrinsic strain softening that is initiated when a critical threshold value of the plastic strain is

  3. Fatigue Life Prediction of Package of Suspension Automotive Under Random Vibration Based on Road Roughness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazem Reza Kashyzadeh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a suitable suspension system for passenger comfort and vehicle steering is an obvious order and direct impact on the safety of passengers must be considered, to do so different kinds of tests must be exerted, one of these is fatigue testing which is one of the most significant ones. Another issue is the high cost in practical ways, and to cope with this issue various ways must be assessed and analyzed, one of the best and the most efficient ways is modelling and testing in virtual software environments. In the present paper, predict fatigue life of suspension component and package of automotive suspension are the main purposes. First, using MATLAB software, road roughness according to the intercity roads for constant vehicle velocity (100 Km/h has been studied. After that frequency response of components has been analysed, its critical points determined to calculate the fatigue life of the part, and the amount of critical stress obtained based on Von Misses, Tresca and Max Principle criterion for a quarter car model (passive suspension System in 206 Peugeot. Fatigue life of the vehicle components are calculated in terms of kilo-Meters in specialized fatigue software such as 116944, 92638.9, 46388.9 and 191388.9 Km respectively wheel hub, pitman arm, suspension arm and package of suspension. Finally, to prove the given results of the finite element method compared with reported results by other researchers and the results match very well with those.

  4. Study on predicting residual life of elevator links by fracture mechanics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Helin; Zhang Yi; Deng Zengjie [China National Petroleum Corp., Xi`an, Shaanxi (China). Tubular Goods Research Center; Jin Dazeng [Xi`an Jiaotong Univ., Xi`an, Shaanxi (China)

    1995-12-31

    On the basis of investigation, failure and fracture analysis of elevator links, residual life prediction of links using fracture mechanics approach is studied, and mechanical properties, fracture toughness value K{sub IC} and fatigue crack propagation rage da/dN of the steel for elevator links are determined. Using the relation between stress intensity factor K{sub I} and the strain-energy release rate, the two-dimensional conversion thickness finite element method has been used to calculate the stress intensity factors K{sub I} for dangerous sections in the ring part of links. Furthermore, the reliability of calculations of the finite element stress intensity factors K{sub I} for dangerous sections of elevator links and the residual life computation for links are verified by fatigue tests of actual links. Finally, the experimental verification of computed results by 150T link fractured at site indicates that the computed critical crack lengths and residual life tally well with those measured and meet the needs of oil drilling.

  5. In your eyes: does theory of mind predict impaired life functioning in bipolar disorder?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Amanda L; Phillips, Mary; Gruber, June

    2013-12-01

    Deficits in emotion perception and social functioning are strongly implicated in bipolar disorder (BD). Examining theory of mind (ToM) may provide one potential mechanism to explain observed socio-emotional impairments in this disorder. The present study prospectively investigated the relationship between theory of mind performance and life functioning in individuals diagnosed with BD compared to unipolar depression and healthy control groups. Theory of mind (ToM) performance was examined in 26 individuals with remitted bipolar I disorder (BD), 29 individuals with remitted unipolar depression (UD), and 28 healthy controls (CTL) using a well-validated advanced theory of mind task. Accuracy and response latency scores were calculated from the task. Life functioning was measured during a 12 month follow-up session. No group differences for ToM accuracy emerged. However, the BD group exhibited significantly shorter response times than the UD and CTL groups. Importantly, quicker response times in the BD group predicted greater life functioning impairment at a 12-month follow-up, even after controlling for baseline symptoms. The stimuli were static representations of emotional states and do not allow for evaluating the appropriateness of context during emotional communication; due to sample size, neither specific comorbidities nor medication effects were analyzed for the BD and UD groups; preliminary status of theory of mind as a construct. Results suggest that quickened socio-emotional decision making may represent a risk factor for future functional impairment in BD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Towards evaluation and prediction of building sustainability using life cycle behaviour simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzouk Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays researchers and practitioners are oriented towards questioning how effective are the different building life cycle activities contribution to preserving the environment and fulfilling the need for equilibrium. Terminologies such as Building sustainability and Green Buildings have long been adopted yet the evaluation of such has been driven through the use of rating systems. LEED of the United States, BREEAM of the United Kingdom, and Pearl of the United Arab Emirates are namely good examples of these rating systems. This paper introduces a new approach for evaluation of building life cycle sustainability through simulation of activities interaction and studying its behaviour. The effort focuses on comprehending impact and effect of suitability related activities over the whole building life cycle or period of time. The methodology includes gathering a pool of parameters through benchmarking of five selected rating systems, analytical factorization for the gathered parameters is used to elect the most influencing parameters. Followed by simulation modelling using System dynamics to capture the interaction of the considered parameters. The resulting behaviour obtained from simulation is studied and used in designing a tool for prediction of sustainability.

  7. Thermal aging of some decommissioned reactor components and methodology for life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1989-03-01

    Since a realistic aging of cast stainless steel components for end-of-life or life-extension conditions cannot be produced, it is customary to simulate the thermal aging embrittlement by accelerated aging at ∼400 degree C. In this investigation, field components obtained from decommissioned reactors have been examined after service up to 22 yr to provide a benchmark of the laboratory simulation. The primary and secondary aging processes were found to be identical to those of the laboratory-aged specimens, and the kinetic characteristics were also similar. The extent of the aging embrittlement processes and other key factors that are known to influence the embrittlement kinetics have been compared for the decommissioned reactor components and materials aged under accelerated conditions. On the basis of the study, a mechanistic understanding of the causes of the complex behavior in kinetics and activation energy of aging (i.e., the temperature dependence of aging embrittlement between the accelerated and reactor-operating conditions) is presented. A mechanistic correlation developed thereon is compared with a number of available empirical correlations to provide an insight for development of a better methodology of life prediction of the reactor components. 18 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  8. Stressful life events predict delayed functional recovery following treatment for mania in bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan-Meier, Leslie; Eberhart, Nicole K; Hammen, Constance L; Gitlin, Michael; Sokolski, Kenneth; Altshuler, Lori

    2011-04-30

    Identifying predictors of functional recovery in bipolar disorder is critical to treatment efforts to help patients re-establish premorbid levels of role adjustment following an acute manic episode. The current study examined the role of stressful life events as potential obstacles to recovery of functioning in various roles. 65 patients with bipolar I disorder participated in a longitudinal study of functional recovery following clinical recovery from a manic episode. Stressful life events were assessed as predictors of concurrent vs. delayed recovery of role functioning in 4 domains (friends, family, home duties, work/school). Despite clinical recovery, a subset of patients experienced delayed functional recovery in various role domains. Moreover, delayed functional recovery was significantly associated with presence of one or more stressors in the prior 3 months, even after controlling for mood symptoms. Presence of a stressor predicted longer time to functional recovery in life domains, up to 112 days in work/school. Interventions that provide monitoring, support, and problem-solving may be needed to help prevent or mitigate the effects of stress on functional recovery. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Robust design and thermal fatigue life prediction of anisotropic conductive film flip chip package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Hyun Wook

    2004-01-01

    The use of flip-chip technology has many advantages over other approaches for high-density electronic packaging. ACF(Anisotropic Conductive Film) is one of the major flip-chip technologies, which has short chip-to-chip interconnection length, high productivity, and miniaturization of package. In this study, thermal fatigue life of ACF bonding flip-chip package has been predicted. Elastic and thermal properties of ACF were measured by using DMA and TMA. Temperature dependent nonlinear bi-thermal analysis was conducted and the result was compared with Moire interferometer experiment. Calculated displacement field was well matched with experimental result. Thermal fatigue analysis was also conducted. The maximum shear strain occurs at the outmost located bump. Shear stress-strain curve was obtained to calculate fatigue life. Fatigue model for electronic adhesives was used to predict thermal fatigue life of ACF bonding flip-chip packaging. DOE (Design Of Experiment) technique was used to find important design factors. The results show that PCB CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) and elastic modulus of ACF material are important material parameters. And as important design parameters, chip width, bump pitch and bump width were chose. 2 nd DOE was conducted to obtain RSM equation for the choose 3 design parameter. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for the calculated RSM equation is 0.99934. Optimum design is conducted using the RSM equation. MMFD (Modified Method for Feasible Direction) algorithm is used to optimum design. The optimum value for chip width, bump pitch and bump width were 7.87mm, 430μm, and 78μm, respectively. Approximately, 1400 cycles have been expected under optimum conditions. Reliability analysis was conducted to find out guideline for control range of design parameter. Sigma value was calculated with changing standard deviation of design variable. To acquire 6 sigma level thermal fatigue reliability, the Std. Deviation of design parameter

  10. REMAINING LIFE TIME PREDICTION OF BEARINGS USING K-STAR ALGORITHM – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. SATISHKUMAR

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of bearings is significant in reducing the down time of all rotating machineries. The increasing trend of bearing failures in recent times has triggered the need and importance of deployment of condition monitoring. There are multiple factors associated to a bearing failure while it is in operation. Hence, a predictive strategy is required to evaluate the current state of the bearings in operation. In past, predictive models with regression techniques were widely used for bearing lifetime estimations. The Objective of this paper is to estimate the remaining useful life of bearings through a machine learning approach. The ultimate objective of this study is to strengthen the predictive maintenance. The present study was done using classification approach following the concepts of machine learning and a predictive model was built to calculate the residual lifetime of bearings in operation. Vibration signals were acquired on a continuous basis from an experiment wherein the bearings are made to run till it fails naturally. It should be noted that the experiment was carried out with new bearings at pre-defined load and speed conditions until the bearing fails on its own. In the present work, statistical features were deployed and feature selection process was carried out using J48 decision tree and selected features were used to develop the prognostic model. The K-Star classification algorithm, a supervised machine learning technique is made use of in building a predictive model to estimate the lifetime of bearings. The performance of classifier was cross validated with distinct data. The result shows that the K-Star classification model gives 98.56% classification accuracy with selected features.

  11. Prospective evaluation of biomarkers for prediction of quality of life in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickler, Manuela; Schaffner, Daniela; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Ottiger, Manuel; Thomann, Robert; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-11-01

    Most clinical research investigated prognostic biomarkers for their ability to predict cardiovascular events or mortality. It is unknown whether biomarkers allow prediction of quality of life (QoL) after survival of the acute event. Herein, we investigated the prognostic potential of well-established inflammatory/cardiovascular blood biomarkers including white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), pro-adrenomedullin (proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP) in regard to a decline in QoL in a well-defined cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Within this secondary analysis including 753 patients with a final inpatient diagnosis of CAP from a multicenter trial, we investigated associations between admission biomarker levels and decline in QoL assessed by the EQ-5D health questionnaire from admission to day 30 and after 6 years. Admission proADM and proANP levels significantly predicted decline of the weighted EQ-5D index after 30 days (n=753) with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 2.0 ([95% CI 1.1-3.8]; p=0.027) and 3.7 ([95% CI 2.2-6.0]; pscale (VAS). Initial WBC, PCT and CRP values did not well predict QoL at any time point. ProADM and proANP accurately predict short- and long-term decline in QoL across most dimensions in CAP patients. It will be interesting to reveal underlying physiopathology in future studies.

  12. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  13. Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.

    2017-09-01

    We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction

  14. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  15. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai G. S. Pai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function, and error-domain model falsification (EDMF, a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are compared. In the modified Bayesian model updating methodology, a correction is used in the likelihood function to account for the effect of a finite number of measurements on posterior probability–density functions. The application of these data-interpretation methodologies for condition assessment and fatigue life prediction is illustrated on a highway steel–concrete composite bridge having four spans with a total length of 219 m. A detailed 3D finite-element plate and beam model of the bridge and weigh-in-motion data are used to obtain the time–stress response at a fatigue critical location along the bridge span. The time–stress response, presented as a histogram, is compared to measured strain responses either to update prior knowledge of model parameters using residual minimization and Bayesian methodologies or to obtain candidate model instances using the EDMF methodology. It is concluded that the EDMF and modified Bayesian model updating methodologies provide robust prediction of fatigue life compared with residual minimization and traditional Bayesian model updating in the presence of correlated non-Gaussian uncertainty. EDMF has additional advantages due to ease of understanding and applicability for practicing engineers, thus enabling incremental asset-management decision making over long service lives. Finally, parallel implementations of EDMF using grid sampling have lower computations times than implementations using adaptive sampling.

  16. Prediction of composite fatigue life under variable amplitude loading using artificial neural network trained by genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohman, Muhamad Nur; Hidayat, Mas Irfan P.; Purniawan, Agung

    2018-04-01

    Neural networks (NN) have been widely used in application of fatigue life prediction. In the use of fatigue life prediction for polymeric-base composite, development of NN model is necessary with respect to the limited fatigue data and applicable to be used to predict the fatigue life under varying stress amplitudes in the different stress ratios. In the present paper, Multilayer-Perceptrons (MLP) model of neural network is developed, and Genetic Algorithm was employed to optimize the respective weights of NN for prediction of polymeric-base composite materials under variable amplitude loading. From the simulation result obtained with two different composite systems, named E-glass fabrics/epoxy (layups [(±45)/(0)2]S), and E-glass/polyester (layups [90/0/±45/0]S), NN model were trained with fatigue data from two different stress ratios, which represent limited fatigue data, can be used to predict another four and seven stress ratios respectively, with high accuracy of fatigue life prediction. The accuracy of NN prediction were quantified with the small value of mean square error (MSE). When using 33% from the total fatigue data for training, the NN model able to produce high accuracy for all stress ratios. When using less fatigue data during training (22% from the total fatigue data), the NN model still able to produce high coefficient of determination between the prediction result compared with obtained by experiment.

  17. Coupling between cracking and permeability, a model for structure service life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasne, M.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.

    1993-01-01

    Many authors have chosen permeability coefficients (permeation, diffusion) as a reference for material durability and for structure service life prediction. When we look for designing engineered barriers for radioactive waste storage we find these macroscopic parameters very essential. In order to work with a predictive model of transfer properties evolution in a porous media (concrete, mortar, rock) we introduce a 'micro-macro' hierarchical model of permeability whose data are the total porosity and the pore size distribution. In spite of the simplicity of the model (very small CPU time consuming) comparative studies show predictive results for sound cement pastes, mortars and concretes. Associated to these works we apply a model of damage due to hydration processes at early ages to a container as a preliminary underproject for the definitive storage of Low Level radioactive Waste (LLW). Data are geometry, cement properties and damage measurement of concrete. This model takes into account the mechanical property of the concrete maturation (volumic variations during cement hydration can damage the structures). Some local microcracking can appear and affect the long term durability. Following these works we introduce our research program for the concrete cracking analysis. An experimental campaign is designed in order to determine damage-cracking-porosity-permeability coupling. (authors). 12 figs., 16 refs

  18. Prediction of thyroidal 131I effective half-life in patients with Graves' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruiguo; Zhang, Guizhi; Wang, Renfei; Tan, Jian; He, Yajing; Meng, Zhaowei

    2017-10-06

    Calculation of effective thyroidal half-life (Teff) of iodine-131( 131 I) is cumbersome and tedious. The aim of this study was to investigate factors that could be used to predict Teff and to develop a Teff prediction model in Graves' disease patients. A total of 256 patients with GD were involved in this study. We investigated the influences of age, gender, disease duration, thyroid weight, antithyroid drugs, antithyroid drugs discontinuation period (ADP), thyroid function indexes, thyroid autoantibodies, thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor antibody (TRAb) level and radioactive iodine uptake (RAIU) values before 131 I therapy on Teff, applying univariate and multivariate analyses. Teff correlated negatively with thyroid peroxidase antibody, TRAb and thyroid weight, as well as positively with 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour RAIU. Additionally, a longer ADP (especially≥ 14d) or without antithyroid drugs before 131 I therapy led to a longer Teff. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that 24-hour and 72-hour RAIU were statistically significant predictors of Teff ( P Graves' disease, with high prediction accuracy.

  19. "Engage" therapy: Prediction of change of late-life major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexopoulos, George S; O'Neil, Robert; Banerjee, Samprit; Raue, Patrick J; Victoria, Lindsay W; Bress, Jennifer N; Pollari, Cristina; Arean, Patricia A

    2017-10-15

    Engage grew out of the need for streamlined psychotherapies that can be accurately used by community therapists in late-life depression. Engage was based on the view that dysfunction of reward networks is the principal mechanism mediating depressive symptoms. Accordingly, Engage uses "reward exposure" (exposure to meaningful activities) and assumes that repeated activation of reward networks will normalize these systems. This study examined whether change in a behavioral activation scale, an index of reward system function, predicts change in depressive symptomatology. The participants (N = 48) were older adults with major depression treated with 9 weekly sessions of Engage and assessed 27 weeks after treatment. Depression was assessed with the 24-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) and behavioral activation with the four subscales of Behavioral Activation for Depression Scale (activation, avoidance/rumination, work impairment, social impairment) at baseline, 6 weeks (mid-treatment), 9 weeks (end of treatment), and 36 weeks. Change only in the Activation subscale during successive periods of assessment predicted depression severity (HAM-D) at the end of each period (F 1, 47 = 21.05, psocial support. Change in behavioral activation predicts improvement of depressive symptoms and signs in depressed older adults treated with Engage. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-An Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

  1. Recent developments on SMA actuators: predicting the actuation fatigue life for variable loading schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Robert W.; Lagoudas, Dimitris C.

    2017-04-01

    Shape memory alloys (SMAs), due to their ability to repeatably recover substantial deformations under applied mechanical loading, have the potential to impact the aerospace, automotive, biomedical, and energy industries as weight and volume saving replacements for conventional actuators. While numerous applications of SMA actuators have been flight tested and can be found in industrial applications, these actuators are generally limited to non-critical components, are not widely implemented and frequently one-off designs, and are generally overdesigned due to a lack of understanding of the effect of the loading path on the fatigue life and the lack of an accurate method for predicting actuator lifetimes. In recent years, multiple research efforts have increased our understanding of the actuation fatigue process of SMAs. These advances can be utilized to predict the fatigue lives and failure loads in SMA actuators. Additionally, these prediction methods can be implemented in order to intelligently design actuators in accordance with their fatigue and failure limits. In the following paper, both simple and complex thermomechanical loading paths have been considered. Experimental data was utilized from two material systems: equiatomic Nickel-Titanium and Nickelrich Nickel-Titanium.

  2. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  3. Prediction of creep-fatigue life by use of creep rupture ductility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Koji; Suzuki, Naoyuki; Ijima, Kiyoshi; Kanazawa, Kenji

    1985-01-01

    It was clarified that tension strain hold reduced creep-fatigue life of many engineering materials in different degrees depending on material, temperature and test duration. However the reduction in the life due to holding for various durations could be correlated to the fraction of intergranular facets on fracture surfaces which was considered to be an index of the damage introduced during strain hold. This fraction of intergranular facets by creep-fatigue failure exhibited a direct relation to the creep rupture ductility of the material tested at the same temperature and for the same creep-fatigue life-time. From these results an empirical equation has been derived as follow; (Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)))/Dsub(c).(N sub(h sup(α))) = C, where Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)) is inelastic strain range, Dsub(c) is the creep rupture ductility for the same duration as creep-fatigue life time, Nsub(h) is the creep-fatigue life under tension strain hold conditions, and α and C are constants depending on the material and testing temperature. From the equation the life prediction is possible for a given inelastic strain range Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)) if the constants α and C, and Dsub(c) are known. The value of α was found to be 0.62 and 0.74 for various austenitic stainless steels and NCF800 at 600 0 C and 700 0 C, respectively, and 0.69 for 1 1/4Cr-1/2Mo steel at 600 0 C. The value of C was found to be 0.50 and 0.59 for various austenitic stainless steels and NCF800 at 600 0 C and 700 0 C, respectively, and 0.49 for 1 1/4Cr-1/2Mo steel at 600 0 C. The creep rupture ductility Dsub(c) is available in the NRIM Creep Data Sheets up to 10 5 h for multi-heats of many kinds of heat resistant alloys. (author)

  4. A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

    2017-04-13

    Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  5. Ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele. Is it possible to predict the level of ambulation in early life?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seitzberg, A.; Lind, M.; Biering-Sørensen, Fin

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prediction of ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele from muscle strength testing and ambulation in early life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-two myelomeningocele (MMC) individuals at the age 18-37 years at follow-up were studied....... Information on muscle strength and ambulatory function in early life was retrieved from medical records. The motor levels determined by the muscle strength were used to predict ambulatory function later in life. At follow-up, a clinical examination was performed. RESULTS: Of 20 MMC individuals assessed...... life than predicted. Good strength in quadriceps muscles gave significant better prospect for adult walking. Of the 52 participants, 41 retained their ambulation status from 5-8 years of age. CONCLUSION: For MMC individuals with motor levels L3-L5, adult ambulatory function cannot be determined from...

  6. Prediction of pavement remaining service life based on repetition of load and permanent deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usman, R. S.; Setyawan, A.; Suprapto, M.

    2018-03-01

    One of the methods which was applied in the assessment of flexible pavement performance was mechanistic method assuming structures of road pavement to become multi-layer structure for flexible pavement, that the vehicle load working on the pavement layer under repetition with power failure worth 1 (one) unit which was assumed as evenly distributed static load, and therefore the pavement material would provide response in the form of stress, strain, and deflection. This is closely related in order to assess the structure of flexible pavement and to predict the remaining service life on the roads of Pulau Indah sta 0 + 000 to sta. 0 + 845 in Kota Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur. The performance appraisal indicator which was used was fatigue cracking happening bottom of the asphalt layer and permanent deformation (rutting) on the surface of subgrade. The strain estimate on the flexible pavement layer structure needs carefulness and high accuracy and therefore a software like KENPAVE which produces horizontal tensile strain of 8,802E-05 and vertical compressive strain of 2,642E-04 was used. By applying equation of The Asphalt Instituteit was obtained repetition of permit load when reaching fatigue cracking (Nf) was 16.071.516 ESAL and permanent deformation (rutting) was 14.703.867 ESAL and also it was predicted the remaining service life of pavement applied the equation of AASTHO 1993 by considering Traffic Multiplier factor (TM 1.8, TM 1.9 and TM 2.0) obtained the remaining life service due to fatigue of 5.51% in the year of 13th (TM 1.8), 7.95% in the year of12th (TM 1.9) and 3.11% (TM 2.0) in the year of 12th, also the remaining service life due to rutting of 4.69% in the year of 12th(TM 1.8), 7.79% in the year of 11th (TM 1.9), and 2.94 in the year of 11th (TM 2.0).

  7. MEMS based shock pulse detection sensor for improved rotary Stirling cooler end of life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hübner, M.; Münzberg, M.

    2018-05-01

    The widespread use of rotary Stirling coolers in high performance thermal imagers used for critical 24/7 surveillance tasks justifies any effort to significantly enhance the reliability and predictable uptime of those coolers. Typically the lifetime of the whole imaging device is limited due to continuous wear and finally failure of the rotary compressor of the Stirling cooler, especially due to failure of the comprised bearings. MTTF based lifetime predictions, even based on refined MTTF models taking operational scenario dependent scaling factors into account, still lack in precision to forecast accurately the end of life (EOL) of individual coolers. Consequently preventive maintenance of individual coolers to avoid failures of the main sensor in critical operational scenarios are very costly or even useless. We have developed an integrated test method based on `Micro Electromechanical Systems', so called MEMS sensors, which significantly improves the cooler EOL prediction. The recently commercially available MEMS acceleration sensors have mechanical resonance frequencies up to 50 kHz. They are able to detect solid borne shock pulses in the cooler structure, originating from e.g. metal on metal impacts driven by periodical forces acting on moving inner parts of the rotary compressor within wear dependent slack and play. The impact driven transient shock pulse analyses uses only the high frequency signal <10kHz and differs therefore from the commonly used broadband low frequencies vibrational analysis of reciprocating machines. It offers a direct indicator of the individual state of wear. The predictive cooler lifetime model based on the shock pulse analysis is presented and results are discussed.

  8. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, K.; Dänicke, S.; Rehage, J.; Sauerwein, H.; Otto, W.; Rolle-Kampczyk, U.; von Bergen, M.

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  9. Availability and mean life time prediction of multistage degraded system with partial repairs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Hoang; Suprasad, A.; Misra, R.B.

    1997-01-01

    In some environments, components might not always fail fully, but can degrade, and there can be multiple stages of degradation. In such cases, the efficiency of the system may decrease. After a certain stage of degradation the efficiency of the system may decrease to an unacceptable limit and can be considered as a total failure. However, the system can fail randomly from any stage. and can be repaired. Further, the repair action cannot bring the system to the good stage, but can make it operational and the failure rate of the system will, therefore, remain the same as before the failure. In this study, we present a model for predicting the reliability, availability, mean life time, and mean time to first failure of multistage degraded systems with partial repairs. In the analysis, state dependent transition rates for the degradation process, as well as repair processes, are considered. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the results

  10. Bayesian techniques for fatigue life prediction and for inference in linear time dependent PDEs

    KAUST Repository

    Scavino, Marco

    2016-01-08

    In this talk we introduce first the main characteristics of a systematic statistical approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking when stress-life data are drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments. Focusing on Bayesian prediction assessment, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models under different a priori assumptions. In the second part of the talk, we present a hierarchical Bayesian technique for the inference of the coefficients of time dependent linear PDEs, under the assumption that noisy measurements are available in both the interior of a domain of interest and from boundary conditions. We present a computational technique based on the marginalization of the contribution of the boundary parameters and apply it to inverse heat conduction problems.

  11. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-21

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  12. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  13. Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

    2010-01-01

    Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

  14. Comparison of LIFE-4 and TEMECH code predictions with TREAT transient test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gneiting, B.C.; Bard, F.E.; Hunter, C.W.

    1984-09-01

    Transient tests in the TREAT reactor were performed on FFTF Reference design mixed-oxide fuel pins, most of which had received prior steady-state irradiation in the EBR-II reactor. These transient test results provide a data base for calibration and verification of fuel performance codes and for evaluation of processes that affect pin damage during transient events. This paper presents a comparison of the LIFE-4 and TEMECH fuel pin thermal/mechanical analysis codes with the results from 20 HEDL TREAT experiments, ten of which resulted in pin failure. Both the LIFE-4 and TEMECH codes provided an adequate representation of the thermal and mechanical data from the TREAT experiments. Also, a criterion for 50% probability of pin failure was developed for each code using an average cumulative damage fraction value calculated for the pins that failed. Both codes employ the two major cladding loading mechanisms of differential thermal expansion and central cavity pressurization which were demonstrated by the test results. However, a detailed evaluation of the code predictions shows that the two code systems weigh the loading mechanism differently to reach the same end points of the TREAT transient results

  15. TBCs for Gas Turbines under Thermomechanical Loadings: Failure Behaviour and Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herzog R.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The present contribution gives an overview about recent research on a thermal barrier coating (TBC system consisted of (i an intermetallic MCrAlY-alloy Bondcoat (BC applied by vacuum plasma spraying (VPS and (ii an Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ top coat air plasma sprayed (APS at Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-1. The influence of high temperature dwell time, maximum and minimum temperature on crack growth kinetics during thermal cycling of such plasma sprayed TBCs is investigated using infrared pulse thermography (IT, acoustic emission (AE analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Thermocyclic life in terms of accumulated time at maximum temperature decreases with increasing high temperature dwell time and increases with increasing minimum temperature. AE analysis proves that crack growth mainly occurs during cooling at temperatures below the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of the BC. Superimposed mechanical load cycles accelerate delamination crack growth and, in case of sufficiently high mechanical loadings, result in premature fatigue failure of the substrate. A life prediction model based on TGO growth kinetics and a fracture mechanics approach has been developed which accounts for the influence of maximum and minimum temperature as well as of high temperature dwell time with good accuracy in an extremely wide parameter range.

  16. Lower levels of maternal capital in early life predict offspring obesity in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Meghan T; Lohman, Brenda J; Neppl, Tricia K

    2017-05-01

    As of 2013, 65% of the world's population lived in countries where overweight/obesity kills more people than being underweight. Evolutionary perspectives provide a holistic understanding of both how and why obesity develops and its long-term implications. To test whether the maternal capital hypothesis, an evolutionary perspective, is viable for explaining the development of obesity in adulthood. Restricted-use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; n = 11 403) was analysed using logistic regressions. The sample included adolescents and their biological mothers. The odds of obesity in adulthood increased by 22% for every standard deviation increase in lack of maternal capital (Exp (B) = 1.22, p obese in adulthood, even after controlling for other factors in infancy, adolescence and adulthood. The results showed that those whose mothers had lower capital were more prone to later life disease (specifically, obesity). The maternal capital perspective is useful for explaining how and why early life characteristics (including maternal resources) predict obesity in adulthood. Implications of the findings are discussed.

  17. Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Liao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS. The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a lithium-ion battery on-line in satellite applications. In this work, a novel health indicator (HI is extracted from the operating parameters of a lithium-ion battery to quantify battery degradation. Moreover, the Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA is utilized to evaluate the similarities between the extracted HI and the battery’s capacity. The result illustrates the effectiveness of using this new HI for fading indication. Furthermore, we propose an optimized ensemble monotonic echo state networks (En_MONESN algorithm, in which the monotonic constraint is introduced to improve the adaptivity of degradation trend estimation, and ensemble learning is integrated to achieve high stability and precision of RUL prediction. Experiments with actual testing data show the efficiency of our proposed method in RUL estimation and degradation modeling for the satellite lithium-ion battery application.

  18. Appetite and Weight Loss Symptoms in Late-Life Depression Predict Dementia Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sayoni; Hatch, Daniel J; Hayden, Kathleen M; Steffens, David C; Potter, Guy G

    2016-10-01

    Identify depression symptoms during active late-life depression (LLD) that predict conversion to dementia. The authors followed a cohort of 290 participants from the Neurocognitive Outcomes of Depression in the Elderly study. All participants were actively depressed and cognitively normal at enrollment. Depression symptom factors were derived from prior factor analysis: anhedonia and sadness, suicidality and guilt, appetite and weight loss, sleep disturbance, and anxiety and tension. Cox regression analysis modeled time to Alzheimer disease (AD) and non-AD dementia onset on depression symptom factors, along with age, education, sex, and race. Significant dementia predictors were tested for interaction with age at depression onset. Higher scores on the appetite and weight loss symptom factor were associated with an increased hazard of both AD and non-AD dementia. This factor was moderated by age at first depression onset, such that higher scores were associated with higher risk of non-AD dementia when depression first occurred earlier in life. Other depression symptom factors and overall depression severity were not related to risk of AD or non-AD dementia. Results suggest greater appetite/weight loss symptoms in active episodes of LLD are associated with increased likelihood of AD and non-AD dementia, but possibly via different pathways moderated by age at first depression onset. Results may help clinicians identify individuals with LLD at higher risk of developing AD and non-AD dementia and design interventions that reduce this risk. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Should solar photovoltaics be deployed sooner because of long operating life at low, predictable cost?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zweibel, Ken

    2010-01-01

    Governments subsidize the deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) because PV is deployed for societal purposes. About seven thousand megawatts were deployed in 2009 and over 10,000 are expected in 2010. Yet this is too slow to strongly affect energy and environmental challenges. Faster societal deployment is slowed because PV is perceived to be too costly. Classic economic evaluations would put PV electricity in the range of 15-50 c/kWh, depending on local sunlight and system size. But PV has an unusual, overlooked value: systems can last for a very long time with almost no operating costs, much like, e.g., the Hoover Dam. This long life is rarely taken into account. The private sector cannot use it because far-future cash flow does not add to asset value. But we should not be evaluating PV by business metrics. Governments already make up the difference in return on investment needed to deploy PV. PV deployment is government infrastructure development or direct purchases. Thus the question is: Does the usually unevaluated aspect of long life at predictably low operating costs further motivate governments to deploy more PV, sooner?

  20. Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

  1. Attachment Style Predicts Affect, Cognitive Appraisals, and Social Functioning in Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara eSheinbaum

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for one week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants’ momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the Attachment Style Interview and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  2. Arrhenius equation modeling for the shelf life prediction of tomato paste containing a natural preservative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Seid Mahdi; Ganje, Mohammad; Dehnad, Danial; Ghanbari, Vahid; Hajitabar, Javad

    2017-12-01

    The shelf life of tomato paste with microencapsulated olive leaf extract was compared with that of samples containing a commercial preservative by accelerated shelf life testing. Based on previous studies showing that olive leaf extract as a rich source of phenolic compounds can have antimicrobial properties, application of its encapsulated form to improve the storage stability of tomato paste is proposed here. Regarding total soluble solids, the control and the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate had the lowest (Q 10  = 1.63) and highest (Q 10  = 1.88) sensitivity to temperature changes respectively; also, the microencapsulated sample containing 1000 µg g -1 encapsulated olive leaf extract (Q 10  = 1.83) followed the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate in terms of the highest kinetic rates. In the case of consistency, the lowest and highest activation energies (E a ) corresponded to samples containing 1000 µg g -1 non-encapsulated olive leaf extract and 1000 µg g -1 microencapsulated olive leaf extract respectively. Interestingly, samples containing microencapsulated olive leaf extract could maintain the original quality of the tomato paste very well, while those with non-encapsulated olive leaf extract rated the worst performance (among all specimens) in terms of maintaining their quality indices for a long time period. Overall, the shelf life equation was able to predict the consistency index of all tomato paste samples during long-time storage with high precision. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  3. Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

  4. Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

  5. A Combined High and Low Cycle Fatigue Model for Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-Peng Zhu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Combined high and low cycle fatigue (CCF generally induces the failure of aircraft gas turbine attachments. Based on the aero-engine load spectrum, accurate assessment of fatigue damage due to the interaction of high cycle fatigue (HCF resulting from high frequency vibrations and low cycle fatigue (LCF from ground-air-ground engine cycles is of critical importance for ensuring structural integrity of engine components, like turbine blades. In this paper, the influence of combined damage accumulation on the expected CCF life are investigated for turbine blades. The CCF behavior of a turbine blade is usually studied by testing with four load-controlled parameters, including high cycle stress amplitude and frequency, and low cycle stress amplitude and frequency. According to this, a new damage accumulation model is proposed based on Miner’s rule to consider the coupled damage due to HCF-LCF interaction by introducing the four load parameters. Five experimental datasets of turbine blade alloys and turbine blades were introduced for model validation and comparison between the proposed Miner, Manson-Halford, and Trufyakov-Kovalchuk models. Results show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions than others with lower mean and standard deviation values of model prediction errors.

  6. Quality of life related to health chronic kidney disease: Predictive importance of mood and somatic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales Montilla, Carmen M; Duschek, Stefan; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A

    2016-01-01

    To compare the predictive capacity of self-reported somatic symptoms and mood (depression and anxiety) on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with chronic renal disease. Data were obtained from 52 patients undergoing haemodialysis. Measures included a) the SF-36 health survey, b) the somatic symptoms scale revised (ESS-R) and c) the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS). Multiple regression was the main method of statistical analysis. Patients exhibited HRQOL levels below normative values, with anxiety and depression prevalence at 36.5% and 27%, respectively. Mood was the strongest predictor of physical (β=-.624) and mental (β=-.709) HRQOL. Somatic symptoms were also associated with physical HRQOL, but their predictive value was weaker (β=-.270). These results indicate that mood is a superior predictor of the physical and mental components of HRQOL in patients compared with the number and severity of physical symptoms. The data underline the importance of assessing negative emotional states (depression and anxiety) in kidney patients as a basis for intervention, which may facilitate reduction of the impact of chronic renal disease on HRQOL. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingjian Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain characteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated according to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indicate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.

  8. Size matters: Installed maximal unit size predicts market life cycles of electricity generation technologies and systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, N.

    2008-01-01

    The electricity generation technologies and systems are complex and change in very dynamic fashions, with a multitude of energy sources and prime movers. Since an important concept in generator design is the 'economies of scale', we discover that the installed maximal unit size (capacity) of the generators is a key 'envelope-pushing' characteristic with logistical behaviors. The logistical wavelet analysis of the max unit sizes for different fuels and prime movers, and the cumulative capacities, reveals universal quantitative features in the aggregate evolution of the power industry. We extract the transition times of the max sizes (spanning 10-90% of the saturation limits) for different technologies and systems, and discover that the max size saturation in the 90-99% range precedes the saturation of cumulative capacities of the corresponding systems in the US. While these universal laws are still empirical, they give us a simple yet elegant framework to examine the evolution of the power industry and markets in predictive, not just descriptive, terms. Such laws give us a quantitative tool to spot trends and predict future development, invaluable in planning and resource allocation based on intrinsic technology and system market life cycles

  9. Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Saxon, Aron R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lundstrom, Blake R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cao, Ziwei [SunPower Corporation; Roc, Albert [SunPower Corp.

    2017-08-25

    Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4 percent RMS error and resistance growth with 15 percent RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.

  10. Relating lab to life: Decrements in attention over time predict math productivity among children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosco, Whitney D; Hawk, Larry W

    2017-02-01

    A child's ability to sustain attention over time (AOT) is critical in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet no prior work has examined the extent to which a child's decrement in AOT on laboratory tasks relates to clinically-relevant behavior. The goal of this study is to provide initial evidence for the criterion validity of laboratory assessments of AOT. A total of 20 children with ADHD (7-12 years of age) who were enrolled in a summer treatment program completed two lab attention tasks (a continuous performance task and a self-paced choice discrimination task) and math seatwork. Analyses focused on relations between attention task parameters and math productivity. Individual differences in overall attention (OA) measures (averaged across time) accounted for 23% of the variance in math productivity, supporting the criterion validity of lab measures of attention. The criterion validity was enhanced by consideration of changes in AOT. Performance on all laboratory attention measures deteriorated as time-on-task increased, and individual differences in the decrement in AOT accounted for 40% of the variance in math productivity. The only variable to uniquely predict math productivity was from the self-paced choice discrimination task. This study suggests that attention tasks in the lab do predict a clinically-relevant target behavior in children with ADHD, supporting their use as a means to study attention processes in a controlled environment. Furthermore, this prediction is improved when attention is examined as a function of time-on-task and when the attentional demands are consistent between lab and life contexts.

  11. Neither Basic Life Support knowledge nor self-efficacy are predictive of skills among dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Giolla Phadraig, C; Ho, J D; Guerin, S; Yeoh, Y L; Mohamed Medhat, M; Doody, K; Hwang, S; Hania, M; Boggs, S; Nolan, A; Nunn, J

    2017-08-01

    Basic life support (BLS) is considered a core competence for the graduating dentist. This study aimed to measure BLS knowledge, self-efficacy and skills of undergraduate dental students in Dublin. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey measuring BLS knowledge and self-efficacy, accompanied by a directly observed BLS skills assessment in a subsample of respondents. Data were collected in January 2014. Bivariate correlations between descriptive and outcome variables (knowledge, self-efficacy and skills) were tested using Pearson's chi-square. We included knowledge and self-efficacy as predictor variables, along with other variables showing association, into a binary logistic regression model with BLS skills as the outcome measure. One hundred and thirty-five students participated. Almost all (n = 133, 98.5%) participants had BLS training within the last 2 years. One hundred and four (77%) felt that they were capable of providing effective BLS (self-efficacy), whilst only 46 (34.1%) scored >80% of knowledge items correct. Amongst the skills (n = 85) subsample, 38.8% (n = 33) were found to pass the BLS skills assessment. Controlling for gender, age and skills assessor, the regression model did not identify a predictive relationship between knowledge or self-efficacy and BLS skills. Neither knowledge nor self-efficacy was predictive of BLS skills. Dental students had low levels of knowledge and skills in BLS. Despite this, their confidence in their ability to perform BLS was high and did not predict actual competence. There is a need for additional hands-on training, focusing on self-efficacy and BLS skills, particularly the use of AED. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Methodology for predicting the life of waste-package materials, and components using multifactor accelerated life tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.; Cote, R.W.

    1983-09-01

    Accelerated life tests are essential for estimating the service life of waste-package materials and components. A recommended methodology for generating accelerated life tests is described in this report. The objective of the methodology is to define an accelerated life test program that is scientifically and statistically defensible. The methodology is carried out using a select team of scientists and usually requires 4 to 12 man-months of effort. Specific agendas for the successive meetings of the team are included in the report for use by the team manager. The agendas include assignments for the team scientists and a different set of assignments for the team statistician. The report also includes descriptions of factorial tables, hierarchical trees, and associated mathematical models that are proposed as technical tools to guide the efforts of the design team

  13. Can We Practically Bring Physics-based Modeling Into Operational Analytics Tools?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granderson, Jessica [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bonvini, Marco [Whisker Labs, Oakland, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Page, Janie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lin, Guanjing [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hu, R. Lilly [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-08-11

    We present that analytics software is increasingly used to improve and maintain operational efficiency in commercial buildings. Energy managers, owners, and operators are using a diversity of commercial offerings often referred to as Energy Information Systems, Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) systems, or more broadly Energy Management and Information Systems, to cost-effectively enable savings on the order of ten to twenty percent. Most of these systems use data from meters and sensors, with rule-based and/or data-driven models to characterize system and building behavior. In contrast, physics-based modeling uses first-principles and engineering models (e.g., efficiency curves) to characterize system and building behavior. Historically, these physics-based approaches have been used in the design phase of the building life cycle or in retrofit analyses. Researchers have begun exploring the benefits of integrating physics-based models with operational data analytics tools, bridging the gap between design and operations. In this paper, we detail the development and operator use of a software tool that uses hybrid data-driven and physics-based approaches to cooling plant FDD and optimization. Specifically, we describe the system architecture, models, and FDD and optimization algorithms; advantages and disadvantages with respect to purely data-driven approaches; and practical implications for scaling and replicating these techniques. Finally, we conclude with an evaluation of the future potential for such tools and future research opportunities.

  14. Development and validation of a method to predict coal pillar life in South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Der Merwe, J.N. [Pretoria Univ., Dept. of Mining Engineering (South Africa)

    2005-07-01

    rate of pillar scaling. The next step was then to measure the actual amounts of scaling on un-failed pillars underground. This was done on a large number of pillars in a variety of conditions. The measurements showed sufficiently close correspondence with the assumed values, to confirm the assumptions and by consequence, the life prediction procedure. With the aid of the real measurements, it was also possible to statistically determine confidence and accuracy levels of the procedure. (author)

  15. Development and validation of a method to predict coal pillar life in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Der Merwe, J.N.

    2005-01-01

    of pillar scaling. The next step was then to measure the actual amounts of scaling on un-failed pillars underground. This was done on a large number of pillars in a variety of conditions. The measurements showed sufficiently close correspondence with the assumed values, to confirm the assumptions and by consequence, the life prediction procedure. With the aid of the real measurements, it was also possible to statistically determine confidence and accuracy levels of the procedure. (author)

  16. Development and validation of a physics-based urban fire spread model

    OpenAIRE

    HIMOTO, Keisuke; TANAKA, Takeyoshi

    2008-01-01

    A computational model for fire spread in a densely built urban area is developed. The model is distinct from existing models in that it explicitly describes fire spread phenomena with physics-based knowledge achieved in the field of fire safety engineering. In the model, urban fire is interpreted as an ensemble of multiple building fires; that is, the fire spread is simulated by predicting behaviors of individual building fires under the thermal influence of neighboring building fires. Adopte...

  17. Review of time-dependent fatigue behavior and life prediction for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, M.K.; Majumdar, S.

    1982-01-01

    Available data on creep-fatigue life and fracture behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel are reviewed. Whereas creep-fatigue interaction is important for Type 304 stainless steel, oxidation effects appear to dominate the time-dependent fatigue behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Four of the currently available predictive methods - the Linear Damage Rule, Frequency Separation Equation, Strain Range Partitioning Equation, and Damage Rate Equation - are evaluated for their predictive capability. Variations in the parameters for the various predictive methods with temperature, heat of material, heat treatment, and environment are investigated. Relative trends in the lives predicted by the various methods as functions of test duration, waveshape, etc., are discussed. The predictive methods will need modification in order to account for oxidation and aging effects in the 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Future tests that will emphasize the difference between the various predictive methods are proposed

  18. Early-life exposures predicting onset and resolution of childhood overweight or obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Jessica A; Long, Catherine; Clifford, Susan A; Muller, Joshua; Gillespie, Alanna N; Donath, Susan; Wake, Melissa

    2017-10-01

    To determine which of multiple early-life exposures predict onset or resolution of overweight/obesity during a 9-year period. Design : longitudinal cohort from three harmonised community-based cohorts enriched for overweight and obesity. Early-life exposures : child-gestational age; delivery; birth weight; breast feeding; solids introduction; baseline body mass index (BMI); waist circumference; diet; activity; global, physical and psychosocial health. Mother-baseline BMI; education; age; neighbourhood disadvantage; concern for child's weight. Outcome : change in BMI category. Analyses : adjusted logistic regression. On average, the 363 children (57% retention) were 6 and 15 years old at baseline and follow-up. Children were classified as 'never' overweight/obese (38%), 'resolving' overweight/obese (15%), 'becoming' overweight/obese (8%) or 'always' overweight/obese (39%). Compared with 'never overweight/obese' children, odds of 'becoming overweight/obese' were greater with higher child (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.02 to 5.29) and maternal BMI (OR 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.31), and lower with higher maternal education (OR 0.09, CI 0.02 to 0.34). Compared with 'always overweight/obese' children, odds of 'resolving overweight/obese' were lower with higher maternal BMI (OR 0.87, CI 0.78 to 0.97), and higher with better child physical health (OR 1.06, CI 1.02 to 1.10) and higher maternal age (OR 1.11, CI 1.01 to 1.22) and education (OR 4.07, CI 1.02 to 16.19). Readily available baseline information (child/maternal BMI, maternal age, education and child health) were the strongest predictors of both onset and resolution of overweight/obesity between the primary school and adolescent years. Perinatal, breastfeeding and lifestyle exposures were not strongly predictive. Results could stimulate development of algorithms identifying children most in need of targeted prevention or treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under

  19. Predicting quality of life and self-management from dyadic support and overprotection after myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joekes, Katherine; Maes, Stan; Warrens, Matthijs

    2007-11-01

    Using a self-regulatory framework, this study aims to identify how couples perceive a partner's support style after myocardial infarction (MI), and whether this predicts the patient's health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) and self-management (S-M) 9 months later. This longitudinal dyadic study includes 73 couples (86% of patients were men), recruited from two cardiac rehabilitation programmes in the Netherlands. Mean age of patients was 54.8 (SD=9.6) and of partners 52.5 (SD=9.8). Participants were interviewed and completed questionnaires at baseline (T1). Repeat questionnaires were returned by 69 and 67 couples after 3 (T2) and 9 months (T3), respectively. Support by partners is conceptualized in this study as 'active engagement' (AE), which involves the extent to which a partner engages the patient in conversations which focus on emotional support and problem solving. Levels of AE do not change over time, nor do they differ between members of the dyad. Levels of overprotection (OP) diminish with time, whilst patients consistently perceive more OP than partners report providing. Patients' experience of goal hindrance (at T3) due to the MI is associated with a decreased HR-QoL at T3 (controlling for baseline measures). The perception of having a supportive (AE) partner at T1 contributes to enhanced patient HR-QoL at each subsequent time point, although not to physical functioning. Perceiving a partner as overprotective (at T1) predicts worsened physical functioning in patients (at T3). Improvements in S-M at T3 (controlling for baseline measures) are reported by patients whose partner displays active engagement at T1. Cardiac rehabilitation should aim to redress the experience of goal disturbance and advise partners on how to provide support.

  20. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life

  1. Appreciation and Life Satisfaction: Does Appreciation Uniquely Predict Life Satisfaction above Gender, Coping Skills, Self-Esteem, and Positive Affectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halle, Joshua Solomon

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this research was to examine whether appreciation explains variance in life satisfaction after controlling for gender, positive affectivity, self-esteem, and coping skills. Two hundred ninety-eight undergraduates went to the informed consent page of the online survey composed of the Appreciation Scale, the Satisfaction With…

  2. Results of fatigue tests and prediction of fatigue life under superposed stress wave and combined superposed stress wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takasugi, Shunji; Horikawa, Takeshi; Tsunenari, Toshiyasu; Nakamura, Hiroshi

    1983-01-01

    In order to examine fatigue life prediction methods at high temperatures where creep damage need not be taken into account, fatigue tests were carried out on plane bending specimens of alloy steels (SCM 435, 2 1/4Cr-1Mo) under superposed and combined superposed stress waves at room temperature and 500 0 C. The experimental data were compared with the fatigue lives predicted by using the cycle counting methods (range pair, range pair mean and zero-cross range pair mean methods), the modified Goodman's equation and the modified Miner's rule. The main results were as follows. (1) The fatigue life prediction method which is being used for the data at room temperature is also applicable to predict the life at high temperatures. The range pair mean method is especially better than other cycle counting methods. The zero-cross range pair mean method gives the estimated lives on the safe side of the experimental lives. (2) The scatter bands of N-bar/N-barsub(es) (experimental life/estimated life) becomes narrower when the following equation is used instead of the modified Goodman's equation for predicting the effect of mean stress on fatigue life. σ sub(t) = σ sub(a) / (1 - Sigma-s sub(m) / kσ sub(B)) σ sub(t); stress amplitude at zero mean stress (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(B); tensile strength (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(m); mean stress (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(a); stress amplitude (kg/mm 2 ) k; modified coefficient of σ sub(B) (author)

  3. Machine learning approaches for integrating clinical and imaging features in late-life depression classification and response prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Meenal J; Andreescu, Carmen; Price, Julie C; Edelman, Kathryn L; Reynolds, Charles F; Aizenstein, Howard J

    2015-10-01

    Currently, depression diagnosis relies primarily on behavioral symptoms and signs, and treatment is guided by trial and error instead of evaluating associated underlying brain characteristics. Unlike past studies, we attempted to estimate accurate prediction models for late-life depression diagnosis and treatment response using multiple machine learning methods with inputs of multi-modal imaging and non-imaging whole brain and network-based features. Late-life depression patients (medicated post-recruitment) (n = 33) and older non-depressed individuals (n = 35) were recruited. Their demographics and cognitive ability scores were recorded, and brain characteristics were acquired using multi-modal magnetic resonance imaging pretreatment. Linear and nonlinear learning methods were tested for estimating accurate prediction models. A learning method called alternating decision trees estimated the most accurate prediction models for late-life depression diagnosis (87.27% accuracy) and treatment response (89.47% accuracy). The diagnosis model included measures of age, Mini-mental state examination score, and structural imaging (e.g. whole brain atrophy and global white mater hyperintensity burden). The treatment response model included measures of structural and functional connectivity. Combinations of multi-modal imaging and/or non-imaging measures may help better predict late-life depression diagnosis and treatment response. As a preliminary observation, we speculate that the results may also suggest that different underlying brain characteristics defined by multi-modal imaging measures-rather than region-based differences-are associated with depression versus depression recovery because to our knowledge this is the first depression study to accurately predict both using the same approach. These findings may help better understand late-life depression and identify preliminary steps toward personalized late-life depression treatment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley

  4. Prediction of clearance, volume of distribution and half-life by allometric scaling and by use of plasma concentrations predicted from pharmacokinetic constants: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, I

    1999-08-01

    Pharmacokinetic parameters (clearance, CL, volume of distribution in the central compartment, VdC, and elimination half-life, t1/2beta) predicted by an empirical allometric approach have been compared with parameters predicted from plasma concentrations calculated by use of the pharmacokinetic constants A, B, alpha and beta, where A and B are the intercepts on the Y axis of the plot of plasma concentration against time and alpha and beta are the rate constants, both pairs of constants being for the distribution and elimination phases, respectively. The pharmacokinetic parameters of cefpiramide, actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol, moxalactam and ciprofloxacin were scaled from animal data obtained from the literature. Three methods were used to generate plots for the prediction of clearance in man: dependence of clearance on body weight (simple allometric equation); dependence of the product of clearance and maximum life-span potential (MLP) on body weight; and dependence of the product of clearance and brain weight on body weight. Plasma concentrations of the drugs were predicted in man by use of A, B, alpha and beta obtained from animal data. The predicted plasma concentrations were then used to calculate CL, VdC and t1/2beta. The pharmacokinetic parameters predicted by use of both approaches were compared with measured values. The results indicate that simple allometry did not predict clearance satisfactorily for actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol and ciprofloxacin. Use of MLP or the product of clearance and brain weight improved the prediction of clearance for these four drugs. Except for troglitazone, VdC and t1/2beta predicted for man by use of the allometric approach were comparable with measured values for the drugs studied. CL, VdC and t1/2beta predicted by use of pharmacokinetic constants were comparable with values predicted by simple allometry. Thus, if simple allometry failed to predict clearance of a drug, so did the pharmacokinetic constant

  5. Model for Predicting Traffic Signs Functional Service Life – The Republic of Croatia Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Babić

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Traffic signs are the basic elements of communication between the relevant road authorities and road users. They manage, regulate, inform and warn road users to ensure their safe movement throughout transport networks. Traffic signs must be timely visible to all traffic participants in all weather and traffic conditions in order to fulfil their function, which means they must have satisfactory retroreflection properties. This paper presents a research of the deterioration of traffic signs retroreflection. The aim of this article is to develop models that will effectively enable predicting the retroreflection of traffic signs and thus optimize the maintenance activities and replacement of road signs to increase road safety. The research included measurements of retroreflection of retroreflective material Classes I and II (white, red and blue colour and Class III (red and yellow colour. Based on the collected data from the City of Zagreb (Republic of Croatia, the authors developed the models to estimate the functional service life of certain colours and materials used to make traffic signs. Considering that the average coefficient of determination for all the models is between 0.55-0.60, they present an effective tool in the traffic sign maintenance system.

  6. Tool-life prediction under multi-cycle loading during metal forming: a feasibility study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Yiran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, the friction and wear behaviour of a hard coating were studied by using ball-on-disc tests to simulate the wear process of the coated tools for sheet metal forming process. The evolution of the friction coefficient followed a typical dual-plateau pattern, i.e. at the initial stage of sliding, the friction coefficient was relatively low, followed by a sharp increase due to the breakdown of the coatings after a certain number of cyclic dynamic loadings. This phenomenon was caused by the interactive response between the friction and wear from a coating tribo-system, which is often neglected by metal forming researchers, and constant friction coefficient values are normally used in the finite element (FE simulations to represent the complex tribological nature at the contact interfaces. Meanwhile, most of the current FE simulations consider single-cycle loading processes, whereas many metal-forming operations are conducted in a form of multi-cycle loading. Therefore, a novel friction/wear interactive friction model was developed to, simultaneously, characterise the evolutions of friction coefficient and the remaining thickness of the coating layer, to enable the wear life of coated tooling to be predicted. The friction model was then implemented into the FE simulation of a sheet metal forming process for feasibility study.

  7. Tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions: A feasibility study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Xi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, the friction and wear behaviour of a hard coating were studied by using ball-on-disc tests to simulate the wear process of the coated tools for sheet metal forming process. The evolution of the friction coefficient followed a typical dual-plateau pattern, i.e. at the initial stage of sliding, the friction coefficient was relatively low, followed by a sharp increase due to the breakdown of the coatings after a certain number of cyclic dynamic loadings. This phenomenon was caused by the interactive response between the friction and wear from a coating tribo-system, which has not been addressed so far by metal forming researchers, and constant friction coefficient values are normally used in the FE simulations to represent the complex tribological nature at the contact interfaces. Meanwhile, most of the current FE simulations are single cycle, whereas most sheet metal forming operations are conducted as multi-cycle. Therefore, a novel friction/wear interactive friction model was developed to, simultaneously, characterise the evolutions of friction coefficient and the remaining thickness of the coating layer, to enable the wear life of coated tooling to be predicted. The friction model was then implemented into the FE simulation of a sheet metal forming process for feasibility study.

  8. Momentary affect predicts bodily movement in daily life: an ambulatory monitoring study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtfeger, Andreas; Eberhardt, Ragna; Chmitorz, Andrea; Schaller, Eva

    2010-10-01

    There is converging evidence that physical activity influences affective states. It has been found that aerobic exercise programs can significantly diminish negative affect. Moreover, among healthy individuals, moderate levels of physical activity seem to increase energetic arousal and positive affect. However, the predictive utility of affective states for bodily movement has rarely been investigated. In this study, we examined whether momentarily assessed affect is associated with bodily movement in everyday life. Using a previously published data set (Schwerdtfeger, Eberhardt, & Chmitorz, 2008), we reanalyzed 12-hr ecological momentary assessment (EMA) data from 124 healthy volunteers. Electronic momentary positive-activated affect (EMA-PAA) and negative affect (EMA-NA) were assessed via handheld computers, and bodily movement was recorded via accelerosensors. Generalized linear mixed models were calculated. Results indicated that EMAPAA increases were accompanied by bodily movement increases of varying intensity. EMA-NA was also positively associated with increases in certain kinds of bodily movement. In light of previous research, this finding suggests that affect and bodily movement may have circular effects on each other.

  9. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  11. Loading Analysis of Composite Wind Turbine Blade for Fatigue Life Prediction of Adhesively Bonded Root Joint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi-Majd, Davood; Azimzadeh, Vahid; Mohammadi, Bijan

    2015-06-01

    Nowadays wind energy is widely used as a non-polluting cost-effective renewable energy resource. During the lifetime of a composite wind turbine which is about 20 years, the rotor blades are subjected to different cyclic loads such as aerodynamics, centrifugal and gravitational forces. These loading conditions, cause to fatigue failure of the blade at the adhesively bonded root joint, where the highest bending moments will occur and consequently, is the most critical zone of the blade. So it is important to estimate the fatigue life of the root joint. The cohesive zone model is one of the best methods for prediction of initiation and propagation of debonding at the root joint. The advantage of this method is the possibility of modeling the debonding without any requirement to the remeshing. However in order to use this approach, it is necessary to analyze the cyclic loading condition at the root joint. For this purpose after implementing a cohesive interface element in the Ansys finite element software, one blade of a horizontal axis wind turbine with 46 m rotor diameter was modelled in full scale. Then after applying loads on the blade under different condition of the blade in a full rotation, the critical condition of the blade is obtained based on the delamination index and also the load ratio on the root joint in fatigue cycles is calculated. These data are the inputs for fatigue damage growth analysis of the root joint by using CZM approach that will be investigated in future work.

  12. A critical analysis of the Mises stress criterion used in frequency domain fatigue life prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Niesłony

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxial fatigue failure criteria are formulated in time and frequency domain. The number of frequency domain criteria is rather small and the most popular one is the equivalent von Mises stress criterion. This criterion was elaborated by Preumont and Piefort on the basis of well-known von Mises stress concept, first proposed by Huber in 1907, and well accepted by the scientific community and engineers. It is important to know, that the criterion was developed to determine the yield stress and material effort under static load. Therefore the direct use of equivalent von Mises stress criterion for fatigue life prediction can lead to some incorrectness of theoretical and practical nature. In the present study four aspects were discussed: influence of the value of fatigue strength of tension and torsion, lack of parallelism of the SN curves, abnormal behaviour of the criterion under biaxial tensioncompression and influence of phase shift between particular stress state components. Information contained in this article will help to prevent improper use of this criterion and contributes to its better understanding

  13. A new approach to predict the fish fillet shelf-life in presence of natural preservative agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Giufffrida

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  14. Using Self-Determination of Senior College Students with Disabilities to Predict Their Quality of Life One Year after Graduation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Pen-Chiang

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the correlation and predictive relationship between self-determination and quality of life of college students with disabilities. Subjects were 145 senior college students recruited from northern Taiwan. Subjects' age ranged from 22 to 25 years and their disabilities varied, including visual impairments (n =…

  15. Evaluating weather factors and material response during outdoor exposure to determine accelerated test protocols for predicting service life

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam Williams; Steven Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

    2005-01-01

    To develop service life prediction methods for the study of sealants, a fully instrumented weather station was installed at an outdoor test site near Madison, WI. Temperature, relative humidiy, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are being continuously measured and stored. The weather data can be integrated over time to...

  16. Interaction between serotonin transporter gene variants and life events predicts response to antidepressants in the GENDEP project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keers, R.; Uher, R.; Huezo-Diaz, P.

    2011-01-01

    , and several polymorphisms in the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) have been genotyped including the serotonin transporter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Stressful life events were shown to predict a significantly better response to escitalopram but had no effect on response to nortriptyline...

  17. Coping Styles, Social Support, Relational Self-Construal, and Resilience in Predicting Students' Adjustment to University Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahat, Enes; Ilhan, Tahsin

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to investigate how well coping styles, social support, relational self-construal, and resilience characteristics predict first year university students' ability to adjust to university life. Participants consisted of 527 at-risk students attending a state university in Turkey. The Personal Information Form, Risk…

  18. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  19. Variability in soil-water retention properties and implications for physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Matthew A.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Collins, Brian D.; Lu, Ning; Godt, Jonathan W.

    2018-01-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landsliding is a persistent hazard to human life and property. Despite the observed connection between infiltration through the unsaturated zone and shallow landslide initiation, there is considerable uncertainty in how estimates of unsaturated soil-water retention properties affect slope stability assessment. This source of uncertainty is critical to evaluating the utility of physics-based hydrologic modeling as a tool for landslide early warning. We employ a numerical model of variably saturated groundwater flow parameterized with an ensemble of texture-, laboratory-, and field-based estimates of soil-water retention properties for an extensively monitored landslide-prone site in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA, USA. Simulations of soil-water content, pore-water pressure, and the resultant factor of safety show considerable variability across and within these different parameter estimation techniques. In particular, we demonstrate that with the same permeability structure imposed across all simulations, the variability in soil-water retention properties strongly influences predictions of positive pore-water pressure coincident with widespread shallow landsliding. We also find that the ensemble of soil-water retention properties imposes an order-of-magnitude and nearly two-fold variability in seasonal and event-scale landslide susceptibility, respectively. Despite the reduced factor of safety uncertainty during wet conditions, parameters that control the dry end of the soil-water retention function markedly impact the ability of a hydrologic model to capture soil-water content dynamics observed in the field. These results suggest that variability in soil-water retention properties should be considered for objective physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria.

  20. Further evaluation of creep-fatigue life prediction methods for low-carbon nitrogen-added 316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Y.

    1999-01-01

    Low-carbon, medium-nitrogen 316 stainless steel is a principal candidate for a main structural material of a demonstration fast breeder reactor plant in Japan. A number of long-term creep tests and creep-fatigue tests have been conducted for four products of this steel. Two representative creep-fatigue life prediction methods, i.e., time fraction rule and ductility exhaustion method were applied. Total stress relaxation behavior was simulated well by an addition of a viscous strain term to the conventional (primary plus secondary) creep strain, but only the letter was assumed to contribute to creep damage in the ductility exhaustion method. The present ductility exhaustion approach was found to have very good accuracy in creep-fatigue life prediction for all materials tested, while the time fraction rule tended to overpredict failure life as large as a factor of 30. Discussion was made on the reason for this notable difference

  1. Longitudinal Prediction of Quality-of-Life Scores and Locomotion in Individuals With Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Shivayogi V; Hogaboom, Nathan S; Roscher, Melissa R; Worobey, Lynn A; Oyster, Michelle L; Boninger, Michael L

    2017-12-01

    To examine (1) differences in quality-of-life scores for groups based on transitions in locomotion status at 1, 5, and 10 years postdischarge in a sample of people with spinal cord injury (SCI); and (2) whether demographic factors and transitions in locomotion status can predict quality-of-life measures at these time points. Retrospective case study of the National SCI Database. Model SCI Systems Centers. Individuals with SCI (N=10,190) from 21 SCI Model Systems Centers, identified through the National SCI Model Systems Centers database between the years 1985 and 2012. Subjects had FIM (locomotion mode) data at discharge and at least 1 of the following: 1, 5, or 10 years postdischarge. Not applicable. FIM-locomotion mode; Severity of Depression Scale; Satisfaction With Life Scale; and Craig Handicap Assessment and Reporting Technique. Participants who transitioned from ambulation to wheelchair use reported lower participation and life satisfaction, and higher depression levels (P.05) or life satisfaction (P>.05) compared with those who transitioned from wheelchair to ambulation. Demographic factors and locomotion transitions predicted quality-of-life scores at all time points (P<.05). The results of this study indicate that transitioning from ambulation to wheelchair use can negatively impact psychosocial health 10 years after SCI. Clinicians should be aware of this when deciding on ambulation training. Further work to characterize who may be at risk for these transitions is needed. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Lebensdauervorhersage fur partikelverstaerkte Aluminiumlegierungen unter Beruecksichtigung der mikrostrukturellen Aspekte der Schaedigung (Working Life Predictions for Particle-Strengthened Aluminum Alloy with Regard to Microstructural Aspects of Deterioration)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berger, Wolfgang

    2000-01-01

    ... and., therefore, influence deterioration testing in preserved working life prediction concepts, thereby creating the basis for an improved application of these concepts for materials with heterogenous micro structures...

  3. A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulino José García Nieto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.

  4. Application of a Predictive Growth Model of Pseudomonas spp. for Estimating Shelf Life of Fresh Agaricus bisporus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianming; Chen, Junran; Hu, Yunfeng; Hu, Hanyan; Liu, Guohua; Yan, Ruixiang

    2017-10-01

    For prediction of the shelf life of the mushroom Agaricus bisporus, the growth curve of the main spoilage microorganisms was studied under isothermal conditions at 2 to 22°C with a modified Gompertz model. The effect of temperature on the growth parameters for the main spoilage microorganisms was quantified and modeled using the square root model. Pseudomonas spp. were the main microorganisms causing A. bisporus decay, and the modified Gompertz model was useful for modelling the growth curve of Pseudomonas spp. All the bias factors values of the model were close to 1. By combining the modified Gompertz model with the square root model, a prediction model to estimate the shelf life of A. bisporus as a function of storage temperature was developed. The model was validated for A. bisporus stored at 6, 12, and 18°C, and adequate agreement was found between the experimental and predicted data.

  5. Phenomenological approach to precise creep life prediction by means of quantitative evaluation of strain rate acceleration in secondary creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Hiroyuki; Miyano, Takaya

    2010-01-01

    A method of creep life prediction by means of Strain-Acceleration-Parameter (SAP), α, is presented. The authors show that the shape of creep curve can be characterized by SAP that reflects magnitude of strain-rate change in secondary creep. The SAP-values, α are evaluated on magnesium-aluminium solution hardened alloys. Reconstruction of creep curves by combinations of SAP and minimum-creep rates are successfully performed, and the curves reasonably agree with experiments. The advantage of the proposed method is that the required parameters evaluated from individual creep curves are directly connected with the minimum creep rate. The predicted times-to-failure agree well with that obtained by experiments, and possibility of precise life time prediction by SAP is pronounced.

  6. A New Approach for Reliability Life Prediction of Rail Vehicle Axle by Considering Vibration Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meral Bayraktar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vibration on the axle has been considered. Vibration measurements at different speeds have been performed on the axle of a running rail vehicle to figure out displacement, acceleration, time, and frequency response. Based on the experimental works, equivalent stress has been used to find out life of the axles for 90% and 10% reliability. Calculated life values of the rail vehicle axle have been compared with the real life data and it is found that the life of a vehicle axle taking into account the vibration effects is in good agreement with the real life of the axle.

  7. PREFACE: Physics-Based Mathematical Models for Nanotechnology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voon, Lok C. Lew Yan; Melnik, Roderick; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-03-01

    stain-resistant clothing, but with thousands more anticipated. The focus of this interdisciplinary workshop was on determining what kind of new theoretical and computational tools will be needed to advance the science and engineering of nanomaterials and nanostructures. Thanks to the stimulating environment of the BIRS, participants of the workshop had plenty of opportunity to exchange new ideas on one of the main topics of this workshop—physics-based mathematical models for the description of low-dimensional semiconductor nanostructures (LDSNs) that are becoming increasingly important in technological innovations. The main objective of the workshop was to bring together some of the world leading experts in the field from each of the key research communities working on different aspects of LDSNs in order to (a) summarize the state-of-the-art models and computational techniques for modeling LDSNs, (b) identify critical problems of major importance that require solution and prioritize them, (c) analyze feasibility of existing mathematical and computational methodologies for the solution of some such problems, and (d) use some of the workshop working sessions to explore promising approaches in addressing identified challenges. With the possibility of growing practically any shape and size of heterostructures, it becomes essential to understand the mathematical properties of quantum-confined structures including properties of bulk states, interface states, and surface states as a function of shape, size, and internal strain. This workshop put strong emphasis on discussions of the new mathematics needed in nanotechnology especially in relation to geometry and material-combination optimization of device properties such as electronic, optical, and magnetic properties. The problems that were addressed at this meeting are of immense importance in determining such quantum-mechanical properties and the group of invited participants covered very well all the relevant disciplines

  8. Prediction of Quality of Life of Non–Insulin-Dependent Diabetic Patients Based on Perceived Social Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Shareh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study was to predic quality of life based on perceived social support components in non–insulin-dependent diabetic patients.Materials and Method: Fifty patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus from Al-Zahra diabetic center in Shiraz participated in a cross-sectional study via survey instrument. All subjects completed multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS and world health organization quality of life- brief (WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires. Results: On the basis of stepwise multiple regression analysis friends and family dimensions of perceived social support were the best predictors of the quality of life and its dimensions (p<0.01.Conclusion: Friends and family dimensions of perceived social support have significant contributions in predicting quality of life of patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

  9. Physics-based statistical model and simulation method of RF propagation in urban environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pao, Hsueh-Yuan; Dvorak, Steven L.

    2010-09-14

    A physics-based statistical model and simulation/modeling method and system of electromagnetic wave propagation (wireless communication) in urban environments. In particular, the model is a computationally efficient close-formed parametric model of RF propagation in an urban environment which is extracted from a physics-based statistical wireless channel simulation method and system. The simulation divides the complex urban environment into a network of interconnected urban canyon waveguides which can be analyzed individually; calculates spectral coefficients of modal fields in the waveguides excited by the propagation using a database of statistical impedance boundary conditions which incorporates the complexity of building walls in the propagation model; determines statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields; and determines a parametric propagation model based on the statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields from which predictions of communications capability may be made.

  10. Predictive Risk Factors for Impaired Quality of Life in Middle-Aged Women with Urinary Incontinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youn-Jung Son

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose Urinary incontinence (UI has substantial and important impacts on quality of life (QoL. The purpose of this study was to identify the associated risk factors of QoL in middle-aged women with UI. Methods The participants were 127 women aged 40-64 years who experienced UI. Data were collected from October to November, 2008 using a self-reported questionnaires. The data were analyzed through t-test, one-way ANOVA, Scheffe test, and multiple linear regression with SPSS ver. 16.0 program. Results The distribution of UI severity was mild 18.1%, moderate 40.2% and severe 41.7%. In univariate analysis, differences in the score for QoL according to participants' characteristics were statistically significant on the type of delivery, number of births and severity of UI. In multiple linear regression analysis after adjustment of other variables, the most powerful predictor of QoL is severity of UI. Number of births was also significant predictor. These two variables explained 25% of variance in QoL of women with UI. Conclusions UI is highly prevalent and causes suffering and impaired QoL among middle-aged women, but it stands beyond our attention. The results of this study suggest that women with moderate to severe UI should be screened for QoL by health care providers regularly. Further research is needed to determine comprehensive factors including psychosocial factors predicting the QoL for incontinent women.

  11. Quality of life predicts outcome in a heart failure disease management program.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Loughlin, Christina

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with a poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). HRQoL has been shown to be a predictor of HF outcomes however, variability in the study designs make it difficult to apply these findings to a clinical setting. The aim of this study was to establish if HRQoL is a predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in HF patients followed-up in a disease management program (DMP) and if a HRQoL instrument could be applied to aid in identifying high-risk patients within a clinical context. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of HF patients attending a DMP with 18+\\/-9 months follow-up. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded on discharge from index HF admission and HRQoL measures were recorded at 2 weeks post index admission. RESULTS: 225 patients were enrolled into the study (mean age=69+\\/-12 years, male=61%, and 78%=systolic HF). In multivariable analysis, all dimensions of HRQoL (measured by the Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire) were independent predictors of both mortality and readmissions particularly in patients <80 years. A significant interaction between HRQoL and age (Total((HRQoL))age: p<0.001) indicated that the association of HRQoL with outcomes diminished as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that HRQoL is a predictor of outcome in HF patients managed in a DMP. Younger patients (<65 years) with a Total HRQoL score of > or =50 are at high risk of an adverse outcome. In older patients > or =80 years HRQoL is not useful in predicting outcome.

  12. The Application Law of Large Numbers That Predicts The Amount of Actual Loss in Insurance of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinungki, Georgina Maria

    2018-03-01

    The law of large numbers is a statistical concept that calculates the average number of events or risks in a sample or population to predict something. The larger the population is calculated, the more accurate predictions. In the field of insurance, the Law of Large Numbers is used to predict the risk of loss or claims of some participants so that the premium can be calculated appropriately. For example there is an average that of every 100 insurance participants, there is one participant who filed an accident claim, then the premium of 100 participants should be able to provide Sum Assured to at least 1 accident claim. The larger the insurance participant is calculated, the more precise the prediction of the calendar and the calculation of the premium. Life insurance, as a tool for risk spread, can only work if a life insurance company is able to bear the same risk in large numbers. Here apply what is called the law of large number. The law of large numbers states that if the amount of exposure to losses increases, then the predicted loss will be closer to the actual loss. The use of the law of large numbers allows the number of losses to be predicted better.

  13. Prediction Model and Principle of End-of-Life Threshold for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Open Circuit Voltage Drifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Yingzhi; Yang, Jie; Du, Chunyu; Zuo, Pengjian; Gao, Yunzhi; Cheng, Xinqun; Ma, Yulin; Yin, Geping

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Open circuit voltage evolution over ageing of lithium ion batteries is deciphered. •The mechanism responsible for the end-of-life (EOL) threshold is elaborated. •A new prediction model of EOL threshold with improved accuracy is developed. •This EOL prediction model is promising for the applications in electric vehicles. -- Abstract: The end-of-life (EOL) of a lithium ion battery (LIB) is defined as the time point when the LIB can no longer provide sufficient power or energy to accomplish its intended function. Generally, the EOL occurs abruptly when the degradation of a LIB reaches the threshold. Therefore, current prediction methods of EOL by extrapolating the early degradation behavior often result in significant errors. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the reason for the EOL threshold of a LIB with shallow depth of discharge. It is found that the sudden appearance of EOL threshold results from the drift of open circuit voltage (OCV) at the end of both shallow depth and full discharges. Further, a new EOL threshold prediction model with highly improved accuracy is developed based on the OCV drifts and their evolution mechanism, which can effectively avoid the misjudgment of EOL threshold. The accuracy of this EOL threshold prediction model is verified by comparing with experimental results. The EOL threshold prediction model can be applied to other battery chemistry systems and its possible application in electric vehicles is finally discussed.

  14. Combination of statistical and physically based methods to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.; Lajas, Sara; Melo, Raquel

    2017-07-01

    Approaches used to assess shallow slide susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of statistical or physically based methods. The former are based on the assumption that the same causes are more likely to produce the same effects, whereas the latter are based on the comparison between forces which tend to promote movement along the slope and the counteracting forces that are resistant to motion. Within this general framework, this work tests two hypotheses: (i) although conceptually and methodologically distinct, the statistical and deterministic methods generate similar shallow slide susceptibility results regarding the model's predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the combination of shallow slide susceptibility maps obtained with statistical and physically based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow slide occurrence. These hypotheses were tested at a small test site (13.9 km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal), using a statistical method (the information value method, IV) and a physically based method (the infinite slope method, IS). The landslide susceptibility maps produced with the statistical and deterministic methods were combined into a new landslide susceptibility map. The latter was based on a set of integration rules defined by the cross tabulation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency tables. The results demonstrate a higher predictive capacity of the new shallow slide susceptibility map, which combines the independent results obtained with statistical and physically based models. Moreover, the combination of the two models allowed the identification of areas where the results of the information value and the infinite slope methods are contradictory. Thus, these areas were classified as uncertain and deserve additional investigation at a more detailed scale.

  15. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens

    2017-06-01

    Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that

  16. A case study of remaining storage life prediction using stochastic filtering with the influence of condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhaoqiang; Hu, Changhua; Wang, Wenbin; Zhou, Zhijie; Si, Xiaosheng

    2014-01-01

    Some systems may spend most of their time in storage, but once needed, must be fully functional. Slow degradation occurs when the system is in storage, so to ensure the functionality of these systems, condition monitoring is usually conducted periodically to check the condition of the system. However, taking the condition monitoring data may require putting the system under real testing situation which may accelerate the degradation, and therefore, shorten the storage life of the system. This paper presents a case study of condition-based remaining storage life prediction for gyros in the inertial navigation system on the basis of the condition monitoring data and the influence of the condition monitoring data taking process. A stochastic-filtering-based degradation model is developed to incorporate both into the prediction of the remaining storage life distribution. This makes the predicted remaining storage life depend on not only the condition monitoring data but also the testing process of taking the condition monitoring data, which the existing prognostic techniques and algorithms did not consider. The presented model is fitted to the real condition monitoring data of gyros testing using the maximum likelihood estimation method for parameter estimation. Comparisons are made with the model without considering the process of taking the condition monitoring data, and the results clearly demonstrate the superiority of the newly proposed model

  17. NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Daniel A.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

  18. Does early-life income inequality predict self-reported health in later life? Evidence from the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillard, Dean R; Burkhauser, Richard V; Hahn, Markus H; Wilkins, Roger

    2015-03-01

    We investigate the association between adult health and the income inequality they experienced as children up to 80 years earlier. Our inequality data track shares of national income held by top percentiles from 1913 to 2009. We average those data over the same early-life years and merge them to individual data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1984-2009. Controlling for demographic and economic factors, we find both men and women are statistically more likely to report poorer health if income was more unequally distributed during the first years of their lives. The association is robust to alternative specifications of income inequality and time trends and remains significant even when we control for differences in overall childhood health. Our results constitute prima facie evidence that adults' health may be adversely affected by the income inequality they experienced as children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The role of brain/behavioural systems in prediction of quality of life and coping strategies in cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shala Jangi Goujeh Biglou

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: It seems that individual differences in personality characteristics are implicated in the incidence and progress of physical diseases and socio-psychological consequences. However, there are a few studies about the role of personality in the prediction of socio-psychological consequences of cancer. The aim of this research was to survey the role of personality in the prediction of socio-psychosocial factors: quality of life and coping strategies. Methods: This research was a descriptive-correlational study in which the sample included fifty cancer patients who were selected through convenience sampling method. To assess the personality differences, quality of life and coping strategies, the Carver and White (1994 BIS/BAS Scales, SF-12 Health Survey and Coping Inventory for Stressful Situation (CISS were used, respectively. The data were analysed by SPSS software using Pearson correlation coefficient and stepwise regression. Results: The findings showed that Both BIS and BAS systems could predict the quality of life (P<0.001, BIS system could explain the emotion-oriented coping strategy (P<0.05 and avoidance-oriented coping stratesy (P<0.01 and BAS system could explain the problem-oriented coping strategy (P<0.001. Conclusion: The findings of this study showed that brain/behavioural systems can predict the quality of life and coping strategies in cancer patients. The identification of these systems in cancer patients can help recognize the persons that are under the risk of poor quality of life or have a higher chance of using inconsistent coping strategies, and execute preventive measures about them.

  20. A Bayesian least-squares support vector machine method for predicting the remaining useful life of a microwave component

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqiang Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid and accurate lifetime prediction of critical components in a system is important to maintaining the system’s reliable operation. To this end, many lifetime prediction methods have been developed to handle various failure-related data collected in different situations. Among these methods, machine learning and Bayesian updating are the most popular ones. In this article, a Bayesian least-squares support vector machine method that combines least-squares support vector machine with Bayesian inference is developed for predicting the remaining useful life of a microwave component. A degradation model describing the change in the component’s power gain over time is developed, and the point and interval remaining useful life estimates are obtained considering a predefined failure threshold. In our case study, the radial basis function neural network approach is also implemented for comparison purposes. The results indicate that the Bayesian least-squares support vector machine method is more precise and stable in predicting the remaining useful life of this type of components.

  1. Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

    2017-09-01

    Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

  2. Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Dinesh K.; Agrawal, Parul; Allen, Gary A., Jr.; Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Brandis, Aaron M.; Chen, Yih-Kang; Jaffe, Richard L.; Palmer, Grant E.; Saunders, David A.; Stern, Eric C.; hide

    2015-01-01

    A new research effort at NASA Ames Research Center has been initiated in Planetary Defense, which integrates the disciplines of planetary science, atmospheric entry physics, and physics-based risk assessment. This paper describes work within the new program and is focused on meteor entry and breakup.Over the last six decades significant effort was expended in the US and in Europe to understand meteor entry including ablation, fragmentation and airburst (if any) for various types of meteors ranging from stony to iron spectral types. These efforts have produced primarily empirical mathematical models based on observations. Weaknesses of these models, apart from their empiricism, are reliance on idealized shapes (spheres, cylinders, etc.) and simplified models for thermal response of meteoritic materials to aerodynamic and radiative heating. Furthermore, the fragmentation and energy release of meteors (airburst) is poorly understood.On the other hand, flight of human-made atmospheric entry capsules is well understood. The capsules and their requisite heatshields are designed and margined to survive entry. However, the highest speed Earth entry for capsules is 13 kms (Stardust). Furthermore, Earth entry capsules have never exceeded diameters of 5 m, nor have their peak aerothermal environments exceeded 0.3 atm and 1 kW/sq cm. The aims of the current work are: (i) to define the aerothermal environments for objects with entry velocities from 13 to 20 kms; (ii) to explore various hypotheses of fragmentation and airburst of stony meteors in the near term; (iii) to explore the possibility of performing relevant ground-based tests to verify candidate hypotheses; and (iv) to quantify the energy released in airbursts. The results of the new simulations will be used to anchor said risk assessment analyses. With these aims in mind, state-of-the-art entry capsule design tools are being extended for meteor entries. We describe: (i) applications of current simulation tools to

  3. Realization of personal values predicts mental health and satisfaction with life in a german population

    OpenAIRE

    Ostermann, Miriam; Huffziger, Silke; Kleindienst, Nikolaus; Mata, Jutta; Schmahl, Christian; Beierlein, Constanze; Bohus, Martin; Lyssenko, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: Living according to one's personal values is expected to promote mental health and satisfaction with life. However, there is scarce empirical research on the effects of the relative importance of values and their realization in daily life. We implemented a new measure to examine the realization of Schwartz's values and its correlation with mental health and satisfaction with life in two German online samples. Analysis of sample 1 (n = 6,989; 70.2% female) reveals that both the impor...

  4. Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Composite Aircraft Components, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Network (PFDAN) toolkit for Abaqus will be developed for probabilistic life management of a laminated composite structure...

  5. A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2013-01-01

    Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

  6. Enriching Triangle Mesh Animations with Physically Based Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yijing; Xu, Hongyi; Barbic, Jernej

    2017-10-01

    We present a system to combine arbitrary triangle mesh animations with physically based Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation, enabling control over the combination both in space and time. The input is a triangle mesh animation obtained using any method, such as keyframed animation, character rigging, 3D scanning, or geometric shape modeling. The input may be non-physical, crude or even incomplete. The user provides weights, specified using a minimal user interface, for how much physically based simulation should be allowed to modify the animation in any region of the model, and in time. Our system then computes a physically-based animation that is constrained to the input animation to the amount prescribed by these weights. This permits smoothly turning physics on and off over space and time, making it possible for the output to strictly follow the input, to evolve purely based on physically based simulation, and anything in between. Achieving such results requires a careful combination of several system components. We propose and analyze these components, including proper automatic creation of simulation meshes (even for non-manifold and self-colliding undeformed triangle meshes), converting triangle mesh animations into animations of the simulation mesh, and resolving collisions and self-collisions while following the input.

  7. A proposal of predictive methods of crack propagation life and remaining life of structural metal under creep-fatigue interacted conditions by use of X-ray profile analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnami, M.; Sakane, M.; Nishino, S.

    1987-01-01

    The following two series of studies are described: One is crack propagation life prediction in high-temperature low-cycle fatigue tests under triangular and trapezoidal strain or stress waves for austenitic stainless steel by X-ray fractography. Another is remaining life prediction of the steel under creep-fatigue interacted conditions by applying the concept of the remaining life diagram and X-ray profile analysis. Particle size and microstrain obtained by X-ray profile analysis were effective nondestructive parameters for estimating crack propagation life and remaining life in creep-fatigue interaction

  8. Using Data Reduction Methods To Predict Quality Of Life In Brest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Quality of life study has an important role in health care especially in chronic diseases, in clinical judgment and in medical resources supplying. Statistical tools like linear regression are widely used to assess the predictors of quality of life. But usually existed a lot of factor cause difficulty for fitting the models ...

  9. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  10. Your Face is Your Fortune: Does Adolescent Attractiveness Predict Intimate Relationships Later in Life?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karraker, Amelia; Sicinski, Kamil; Moynihan, Donald

    2017-01-01

    A growing literature documents the importance of physical attractiveness in young and middle adulthood for romantic, marital, and sexual relationships, but little is known about how attractiveness in adolescence matters to intimate relationships in later life. We ask: does attractiveness early in life convey ongoing benefits late in life, or do such benefits erode over time? We use multivariate regression models and more than 50 years of data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to examine the connections between adolescent physical attractiveness and intimate relationships (i.e., sexual activity and access to potential sexual partners) in later life. We find that adolescent attractiveness facilitates sexual activity in later life. This relationship is largely driven by attractiveness increasing the probability of having access to potential sexual partners. However, attractiveness is not related to sexual activity among married couples, even after controlling for marital duration. Men, those in good health, and wealthier individuals are also more likely to engage in several facets of intimate relationships. These findings highlight the importance of relationship context for later life sexual activity and begin to explicate the pathways through which factors across the life course-particularly attractiveness-influence sexual activity in later life. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Predicting the life-cycle performance of an EGS by numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöcher, G.; Zimmermann, G.; Moeck, I.; Brandt, W.; Huenges, E.

    2009-04-01

    matrix and fractures were determined by laboratory and field experiments. We present the predicted temperature change during 30 years life-cycle due to continuous injection of 70°C cold water /after serving as the heat source for a ORC power cycle) with a flow rate of 75m³/h.

  12. Physics-based hybrid method for multiscale transport in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh, Mehrdad; Battiato, Ilenia

    2017-09-01

    Despite advancements in the development of multiscale models for flow and reactive transport in porous media, the accurate, efficient and physics-based coupling of multiple scales in hybrid models remains a major theoretical and computational challenge. Improving the predictivity of macroscale predictions by means of multiscale algorithms relative to classical at-scale models is the primary motivation for the development of multiscale simulators. Yet, very few are the quantitative studies that explicitly address the predictive capability of multiscale coupling algorithms as it is still generally not possible to have a priori estimates of the errors that are present when complex flow processes are modeled. We develop a nonintrusive pore-/continuum-scale hybrid model whose coupling error is bounded by the upscaling error, i.e. we build a predictive tightly coupled multiscale scheme. This is accomplished by slightly enlarging the subdomain where continuum-scale equations are locally invalid and analytically defining physics-based coupling conditions at the interfaces separating the two computational sub-domains, while enforcing state variable and flux continuity. The proposed multiscale coupling approach retains the advantages of domain decomposition approaches, including the use of existing solvers for each subdomain, while it gains flexibility in the choice of the numerical discretization method and maintains the coupling errors bounded by the upscaling error. We implement the coupling in finite volumes and test the proposed method by modeling flow and transport through a reactive channel and past an array of heterogeneously reactive cylinders.

  13. Prediction of life stress on athletes’ burnout: the dual role of perceived stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Erica T.W.; Hsu, Ya-Wen; Chang, Ko-Hsin

    2018-01-01

    Although many studies adopted Smith’s (1986) cognitive–affective model of athletic burnout in examining stress–burnout relationship, very few studies examined the mediating/moderating role of perceived stress on the stress–burnout relationship. We sampled 195 college student-athletes and assessed their life stress, perceived stress, and burnout. Correlation analyses found all study variables correlated. Two separate hierarchical regression analyses found that the “distress” component of perceived stress mediated athletes’ two types of life stress–burnout relationship but “counter-stress” component of perceived stress-moderated athletes’ general-life stress–burnout relationship. We concluded that interweaving relationships among athletes’ life stress, perceived stress, and burnout are not straightforward. Future research should consider the nature of athletes life stress, and dual role of perceived stress in examining its’ association with related psychological responses in athletic settings. PMID:29362691

  14. Prediction of life stress on athletes' burnout: the dual role of perceived stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chyi, Theresa; Lu, Frank Jing-Horng; Wang, Erica T W; Hsu, Ya-Wen; Chang, Ko-Hsin

    2018-01-01

    Although many studies adopted Smith's (1986) cognitive-affective model of athletic burnout in examining stress-burnout relationship, very few studies examined the mediating/moderating role of perceived stress on the stress-burnout relationship. We sampled 195 college student-athletes and assessed their life stress, perceived stress, and burnout. Correlation analyses found all study variables correlated. Two separate hierarchical regression analyses found that the "distress" component of perceived stress mediated athletes' two types of life stress-burnout relationship but "counter-stress" component of perceived stress-moderated athletes' general-life stress-burnout relationship. We concluded that interweaving relationships among athletes' life stress, perceived stress, and burnout are not straightforward. Future research should consider the nature of athletes life stress, and dual role of perceived stress in examining its' association with related psychological responses in athletic settings.

  15. Prediction of life stress on athletes’ burnout: the dual role of perceived stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa Chyi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Although many studies adopted Smith’s (1986 cognitive–affective model of athletic burnout in examining stress–burnout relationship, very few studies examined the mediating/moderating role of perceived stress on the stress–burnout relationship. We sampled 195 college student-athletes and assessed their life stress, perceived stress, and burnout. Correlation analyses found all study variables correlated. Two separate hierarchical regression analyses found that the “distress” component of perceived stress mediated athletes’ two types of life stress–burnout relationship but “counter-stress” component of perceived stress-moderated athletes’ general-life stress–burnout relationship. We concluded that interweaving relationships among athletes’ life stress, perceived stress, and burnout are not straightforward. Future research should consider the nature of athletes life stress, and dual role of perceived stress in examining its’ association with related psychological responses in athletic settings.

  16. Damage assessment of low-cycle fatigue by crack growth prediction. Fatigue life under cyclic thermal stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    The number of cycles to failure of specimens in fatigue tests can be estimated by predicting crack growth. Under a cyclic thermal stress caused by fluctuation of fluid temperature, due to the stress gradient in the thickness direction, the estimated fatigue life differs from that estimated for mechanical fatigue tests. In this paper, the influence of crack growth under cyclic thermal loading on the fatigue life was investigated. First, the thermal stress was derived by superposing analytical solutions, and then, the stress intensity factor was obtained by the weight function method. It was shown that the thermal stress depended not on the rate of the fluid temperature change but on the rise time, and the magnitude of the stress was increased as the rise time was decreased. The stress intensity factor under the cyclic thermal stress was smaller than that under the uniform stress distribution. The change in the stress intensity factor with the crack depth did not depend on the heat transfer coefficient and only slightly depended on the rise time. The estimated fatigue life under the cyclic thermal loading could be 1.6 times longer than that under the uniform stress distribution. The critical size for the fatigue life determination was assumed to be 3 mm for fatigue test specimens of 10 mm diameter. By evaluating the critical size by structural integrity analyses, the fatigue life was increased and the effect of the critical size on the fatigue life was more pronounced for the cyclic thermal stress. (author)

  17. Perceived health competence predicts health behavior and health-related quality of life in patients with cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Justin M; Goggins, Kathryn M; Nwosu, Samuel K; Schildcrout, Jonathan S; Kripalani, Sunil; Wallston, Kenneth A

    2016-12-01

    Evaluate the effect of perceived health competence, a patient's belief in his or her ability to achieve health-related goals, on health behavior and health-related quality of life. We analyzed 2063 patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome and/or congestive heart failure at a large academic hospital in the United States. Multivariable linear regression models investigated associations between the two-item perceived health competence scale (PHCS-2) and positive health behaviors such as medication adherence and exercise (Health Behavior Index) as well as health-related quality of life (5-item Patient Reported Outcome Information Measurement System Global Health Scale). After multivariable adjustment, perceived health competence was highly associated with health behaviors (pperceived health competence was associated with a decrease in health-related quality of life between hospitalization and 90days after discharge (pPerceived health competence predicts health behavior and health-related quality of life in patients hospitalized with cardiovascular disease as well as change in health-related quality of life after discharge. Patients with low perceived health competence may be at risk for a decline in health-related quality of life after hospitalization and thus a potential target for counseling and other behavioral interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Damage assessment of low-cycle fatigue by crack growth prediction. Fatigue life under cyclic thermal stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    The number of cycles to failure of specimens in fatigue tests can be estimated by predicting crack growth. Under a cyclic thermal stress caused by fluctuation of fluid temperature, due to the stress gradient in the thickness direction, the estimated fatigue life differs from that estimated for mechanical fatigue tests. In this paper, the influence of crack growth under cyclic thermal loading on the fatigue life was investigated. First, the thermal stress was derived by superposing analytical solutions, and then, the stress intensity factor was obtained by the weight function method. It was shown that the thermal stress depended not on the rate of the fluid temperature change but on the rise time, and the magnitude of the stress was increased as the rise time was decreased. The stress intensity factor under the cyclic thermal stress was smaller than that under the uniform stress distribution. The change in the stress intensity factor with the crack depth was almost the same regardless of the rise time. The estimated fatigue life under the cyclic thermal loading could be 1.6 times longer than that under the uniform stress distribution. The critical size for the fatigue life determination was assumed to be 3 mm for fatigue test specimens of 10 mm diameter. By evaluating the critical size by structural integrity analyses, the fatigue life was increased and the effect of the critical size on the fatigue life was more pronounced for the cyclic thermal stress. (author)

  19. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  20. A proposal of parameter determination method in the residual strength degradation model for the prediction of fatigue life (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sang Tae; Jang, Seong Soo

    2001-01-01

    The static and fatigue tests have been carried out to verify the validity of a generalized residual strength degradation model. And a new method of parameter determination in the model is verified experimentally to account for the effect of tension-compression fatigue loading of spheroidal graphite cast iron. It is shown that the correlation between the experimental results and the theoretical prediction on the statistical distribution of fatigue life by using the proposed method is very reasonable. Furthermore, it is found that the correlation between the theoretical prediction and the experimental results of fatigue life in case of tension-tension fatigue data in composite material appears to be reasonable. Therefore, the proposed method is more adjustable in the determination of the parameter than maximum likelihood method and minimization technique

  1. Do burnout and work engagement predict depressive symptoms and life satisfaction? A three-wave seven-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakanen, Jari J; Schaufeli, Wilmar B

    2012-12-10

    Burnout and work engagement have been viewed as opposite, yet distinct states of employee well-being. We investigated whether work-related indicators of well-being (i.e. burnout and work engagement) spill-over and generalize to context-free well-being (i.e. depressive symptoms and life satisfaction). More specifically, we examined the causal direction: does burnout/work engagement lead to depressive symptoms/life satisfaction, or the other way around? Three surveys were conducted. In 2003, 71% of all Finnish dentists were surveyed (n=3255), and the response rate of the 3-year follow-up was 84% (n=2555). The second follow-up was conducted four years later with a response rate of 86% (n=1964). Structural equation modeling was used to investigate the cross-lagged associations between the study variables across time. Burnout predicted depressive symptoms and life dissatisfaction from T1 to T2 and from T2 to T3. Conversely, work engagement had a negative effect on depressive symptoms and a positive effect on life satisfaction, both from T1 to T2 and from T2 to T3, even after adjusting for the impact of burnout at every occasion. The study was conducted among one occupational group, which limits its generalizability. Work-related well-being predicts general wellbeing in the long-term. For example, burnout predicts depressive symptoms and not vice versa. In addition, burnout and work engagement are not direct opposites. Instead, both have unique, incremental impacts on life satisfaction and depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Application of the strain energy for fatigue life prediction (LCF) of metals by the energy-based criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahram Shahrooi; Ibrahim Henk Metselaar; Zainul Huda; Ghezavati, H.R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: In this study, the plastic strain energy under multiaxial fatigue condition has been calculated in the cyclic plasticity models by the stress-strain hysteresis loops. Then, using the results of these models, the fatigue lives in energy-based fatigue model is predicted and compared to experimental data. Moreover, a weighting factor on shear plastic work is presented to decrease the life factors in the model fatigue. (author)

  3. Development of Reliability Based Life Prediction Methods for Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2001-01-01

    Literature survey related to the EBC/TBC (environmental barrier coating/thermal barrier coating) fife models, failure mechanisms in EBC/TBC and the initial work plan for the proposed EBC/TBC life prediction methods development was developed as well as the finite element model for the thermal/stress analysis of the GRC-developed EBC system was prepared. Technical report for these activities is given in the subsequent sections.

  4. Improvement of life prediction accuracy by introduction of strain-rate effect into modified ductility exhaustion method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1994-01-01

    It is important to use a reliable creep-fatigue damage evaluation method to prevent failures due to creep-fatigue damage accumulated during operation life in the structural design for fast breeder reactor plants. In this study, slow strain-rate fatigue tests were conducted for SUS316 steel for fast breeder application (316FR) and the improvement of creep-fatigue life estimation method was proposed based on test results. Main results can be summarized as follows: (1) In the slow strain-rate fatigue tests, life reduction caused by creep damage was observed as in the case of strain-hold creep-fatigue tests. (2) Strain-rate dependency of creep damage was introduced into the modified ductility exhaustion method previously proposed by the author. Good agreement of predicted lives with observed lives was achieved for SUS304 and 316FR steels with the method proposed here. (author)

  5. Small Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Predictions for High-Strength Aluminium Alloys. Part 1; Experimental and Fracture Mechanics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X. R.; Newman, J. C.; Zhao, W.; Swain, M. H.; Ding, C. F.; Phillips, E. P.

    1998-01-01

    The small crack effect was investigated in two high-strength aluminium alloys: 7075-T6 bare and LC9cs clad alloy. Both experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to study crack initiation and growth of small cracks. In the experimental program, fatigue tests, small crack and large crack tests A,ere conducted under constant amplitude and Mini-TWIST spectrum loading conditions. A pronounced small crack effect was observed in both materials, especially for the negative stress ratios. For all loading conditions, most of the fatigue life of the SENT specimens was shown to be crack propagation from initial material defects or from the cladding layer. In the analysis program, three-dimensional finite element and A weight function methods were used to determine stress intensity factors and to develop SIF equations for surface and corner cracks at the notch in the SENT specimens. A plastisity-induced crack-closure model was used to correlate small and large crack data, and to make fatigue life predictions, Predicted crack-growth rates and fatigue lives agreed well with experiments. A total fatigue life prediction method for the aluminum alloys was developed and demonstrated using the crack-closure model.

  6. Predicting Suicidal Ideation in Adolescent Boys and Girls: The Role of Psychological Maturity, Personality Traits, Depression and Life Satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales-Vives, Fabia; Dueñas, Jorge Manuel

    2018-04-10

    In recent years, suicide rates have increased in adolescents and the young population, so these age groups are considered as populations at risk. Considering that suicidal ideation is the first sign of possible future suicide behavior, the objective of this study is to determine the relative importance of psychological maturity, personality, depression and life satisfaction in predicting suicidal ideation in adolescents. Results show that depressive symptoms is the variable that best predicts suicidal ideation, but psychological maturity, life satisfaction and emotional stability are predictors as well (R2 = .51, p emotional stability has an indirect relationship with suicidal ideation, through its relationship with depressive symptoms, life satisfaction and identity. Two Multigroup Structural Equation Models were proposed to better understand the relationships between these variables for each sex. The results show that the fit of the model that includes the variable Self-reliance is better for boys than for girls (chi-square contributions of 8.175 for girls and 1.978 for boys) unlike the other model (chi-square contributions of 0.288 for girls and 1.650 for boys). These results suggest that the psychological maturity subscale Self-reliance play a role in suicidal ideation in males but not in females. Although there have been no previous studies on the role of psychological maturity as a predictor of suicidal phenomena, the current study suggests that it is a feature to be considered in the prediction of adolescent suicidal ideation.

  7. A new hybrid method for the prediction of the remaining useful life of a lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Yang; Fang, Huajing; Zhang, Yong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •The proposed prognostic method can make full use of historical information. •The method of obtaining historical error data is discussed in detail. •Comparative experiments based on data-driven and model-based methods are performed. •Battery working with different discharging currents is considered. -- Abstract: The lithium-ion battery has become the main power source of many electronic devices, it is necessary to know its state-of-health and remaining useful life to ensure the reliability of electronic device. In this paper, a novel hybrid method with the thought of error-correction is proposed to predict the remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery, which fuses the algorithms of unscented Kalman filter, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and relevance vector machine. Firstly, the unscented Kalman filter algorithm is adopted to obtain a prognostic result based on an estimated model and produce a raw error series. Secondly, a new error series is constructed by analyzing the decomposition results of the raw error series obtained by CEEMD method. Finally, the new error series is utilized by relevance vector machine regression model to predict the prognostic error which is adopted to correct the prognostic result obtained by unscented Kalman filter. Remaining useful life prediction experiments for batteries with different rated capacities and discharging currents are performed to show the high reliability of the proposed hybrid method.

  8. Measures of symptoms and life quality to predict emergent use of institutional health care resources in chronic obstructive airways disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traver, G A

    1988-11-01

    Thirty subjects with severe chronic obstructive airways disease participated in a study to identify differences in symptoms and life quality between those with high and low emergent use of institutional health care resources. Emergent use was defined as care obtained through unscheduled, nonroutine methods of access to health care providers. There were 15 subjects in each group; the groups had similar sex distribution and were not significantly different for percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (mean 29.8%), use of home oxygen (15 of 30 subjects), or prevalence of CO2 retention (nine of 30). Symptoms and life quality were measured by using three paper and pencil tests, the Bronchitis-Emphysema Symptom Checklist, the Sickness-Impact Profile, and the Katz Adjustment Scale for relatives. Findings demonstrated consistently more symptoms and impairment of life quality in the "high emergent" group. The differences reached statistical significance for irritability, anxiety, helplessness, nervousness, peripheral sensory complaints, alienation, social interaction, and emotional behavior. Discriminant analysis provided a prediction formula that yielded 80% correct prediction for the two groups.

  9. Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions.

  10. Self-Concept Clarity and Religious Orientations: Prediction of Purpose in Life and Self-Esteem

    OpenAIRE

    Błażek, Magdalena; Besta, Tomasz

    2010-01-01

    The present study concerns the relationship between self-concept clarity, religiosity, and well-being, as well as the mediating influence of religiosity on the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of meaning in life and self-esteem. Self-concept clarity was found to be a significant predictor of sense of meaning in life and self-esteem; intrinsic religious orientation was found to be a predictor of sense of meaning in life, while the quest religious orientation was a predictor ...

  11. Integrating 3D geological information with a national physically-based hydrological modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Parkin, Geoff; Kessler, Holger; Whiteman, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Robust numerical models are an essential tool for informing flood and water management and policy around the world. Physically-based hydrological models have traditionally not been used for such applications due to prohibitively large data, time and computational resource requirements. Given recent advances in computing power and data availability, a robust, physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain using the SHETRAN model and national datasets has been created. Such a model has several advantages over less complex systems. Firstly, compared with conceptual models, a national physically-based model is more readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. Secondly, the results of a physically-based system may be more robust under changing conditions such as climate and land cover, as physical processes and relationships are explicitly accounted for. Finally, a fully integrated surface and subsurface model such as SHETRAN offers a wider range of applications compared with simpler schemes, such as assessments of groundwater resources, sediment and nutrient transport and flooding from multiple sources. As such, SHETRAN provides a robust means of simulating numerous terrestrial system processes which will add physical realism when coupled to the JULES land surface model. 306 catchments spanning Great Britain have been modelled using this system. The standard configuration of this system performs satisfactorily (NSE > 0.5) for 72% of catchments and well (NSE > 0.7) for 48%. Many of the remaining 28% of catchments that performed relatively poorly (NSE land cover change studies and integrated assessments of groundwater and surface water resources.

  12. Emotional outlook on life predicts increases in physical activity among initially inactive men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruth, Meghan; Lee, Duck-Chul; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Marcus, Bess H; Wilcox, Sara; Blair, Steven N

    2011-04-01

    This study examined the relationship between emotional outlook on life and change in physical activity among inactive adults in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. A total of 2,132 sedentary adults completed a baseline medical examination and returned for a follow-up examination at least 6 months later. Participants self-reported physical activity level and emotional outlook on life. Emotional outlook on life was significantly and positively related to physical activity participation at the follow-up visit in men but not women. Men who were usually very happy and optimistic at baseline had significantly greater increases in physical activity compared to men who were not happy. Men with a more positive outlook on life (e.g., happier) may be more likely to increase physical activity levels. Physical activity interventions targeting men may be more successful if they first increase happiness.

  13. Bayesian techniques for fatigue life prediction and for inference in linear time dependent PDEs

    KAUST Repository

    Scavino, Marco

    2016-01-01

    In this talk we introduce first the main characteristics of a systematic statistical approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking when stress-life data are drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments. Focusing

  14. Do stressful life events predict medical treatment outcome in first episode of depression?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bock, Camilla; Bukh, Jens Drachmann; Vinberg, Maj

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether medical treatment outcome in first episode depression differ for patients with and without stressful life events prior to onset of depression. METHODS: Patients discharged with a diagnosis of a single depressive episode from a psychiatric in- or outpatient hospital......-II) and the interview of recent life events (IRLE). Medical treatment history was assessed in detail using standardised procedures (TRAQ). Remission was defined as a score or= 4 on TRAQ following (1) first trial of antidepressant treatment (2) two adequate trials of antidepressant treatment. RESULTS: A total of 399...... patients participated in the interview and among these 301 patients obtained a SCAN diagnosis of a single depressive episode. A total of 62.8% of the 301 patients experienced at least one moderate to severe stressful life event in a 6 months period prior to symptom onset. The presence of a stressful life...

  15. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    OpenAIRE

    Zongwen AN; Xuezong BAI; Jianxiong GAO

    2016-01-01

    In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic); then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relation...

  16. [Prediction method of rural landscape pattern evolution based on life cycle: a case study of Jinjing Town, Hunan Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xiang; Liu, Li-Ming; Li, Hong-Qing

    2014-11-01

    Taking Jinjing Town in Dongting Lake area as a case, this paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model was built based on the rule of rural landscape change. The results showed that rural settlement and paddy landscapes of Jinjing Town would change most in 2020, with the rural settlement landscape increased to 1194.01 hm2 and paddy landscape greatly reduced to 3090.24 hm2. The quantitative and spatial prediction accuracies of the model were up to 99.3% and 96.4%, respectively, being more explicit than single CA-Markov model. The prediction model of rural landscape patterns change proposed in this paper would be helpful for rural landscape planning in future.

  17. Comparison of physically based catchment models for estimating Phosphorus losses

    OpenAIRE

    Nasr, Ahmed Elssidig; Bruen, Michael

    2003-01-01

    As part of a large EPA-funded research project, coordinated by TEAGASC, the Centre for Water Resources Research at UCD reviewed the available distributed physically based catchment models with a potential for use in estimating phosphorous losses for use in implementing the Water Framework Directive. Three models, representative of different levels of approach and complexity, were chosen and were implemented for a number of Irish catchments. This paper reports on (i) the lessons and experience...

  18. Physics-based signal processing algorithms for micromachined cantilever arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candy, James V; Clague, David S; Lee, Christopher L; Rudd, Robert E; Burnham, Alan K; Tringe, Joseph W

    2013-11-19

    A method of using physics-based signal processing algorithms for micromachined cantilever arrays. The methods utilize deflection of a micromachined cantilever that represents the chemical, biological, or physical element being detected. One embodiment of the method comprises the steps of modeling the deflection of the micromachined cantilever producing a deflection model, sensing the deflection of the micromachined cantilever and producing a signal representing the deflection, and comparing the signal representing the deflection with the deflection model.

  19. Predictive value of obsessive compulsive symptoms involving the skin on quality of life in patients with acne vulgaris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bez, Yasin; Yesilova, Yavuz; Arı, Mustafa; Kaya, Mehmet Cemal; Alpak, Gokay; Bulut, Mahmut

    2013-11-01

    Acne is one of the most common dermatological diseases, and obsessive compulsive disorder is among the most frequent psychiatric conditions seen in dermatology clinics. Comorbidity of these conditions may therefore be expected. The aim of this study was to measure obsessive compulsive symptoms and quality of life in patients with acne vulgaris, compare them with those of healthy control subjects, and determine whether there is any predictive value of obsessive compulsive symptoms for quality of life in patients with acne. Obsessive compulsive symptoms and quality of life measurements of 146 patients with acne vulgaris and 94 healthy control subjects were made using the Maudsley Obsessive Compulsive Questionnaire and Short Form-36 in a cross-sectional design. Patients with acne vulgaris had lower scores for physical functioning, physical role dysfunction, general health perception, vitality, and emotional role dysfunction. They also had higher scores for checking, slowness, and rumination. The only predictor of physical functioning and vitality dimensions of health-related quality of life in these patients was rumination score. Obsessive compulsive symptoms in patients with acne vulgaris are higher than in controls, and this may correlate with both disease severity and quality of life for patients.

  20. Physics-based simulation modeling and optimization of microstructural changes induced by machining and selective laser melting processes in titanium and nickel based alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arisoy, Yigit Muzaffer

    Manufacturing processes may significantly affect the quality of resultant surfaces and structural integrity of the metal end products. Controlling manufacturing process induced changes to the product's surface integrity may improve the fatigue life and overall reliability of the end product. The goal of this study is to model the phenomena that result in microstructural alterations and improve the surface integrity of the manufactured parts by utilizing physics-based process simulations and other computational methods. Two different (both conventional and advanced) manufacturing processes; i.e. machining of Titanium and Nickel-based alloys and selective laser melting of Nickel-based powder alloys are studied. 3D Finite Element (FE) process simulations are developed and experimental data that validates these process simulation models are generated to compare against predictions. Computational process modeling and optimization have been performed for machining induced microstructure that includes; i) predicting recrystallization and grain size using FE simulations and the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) model, ii) predicting microhardness using non-linear regression models and the Random Forests method, and iii) multi-objective machining optimization for minimizing microstructural changes. Experimental analysis and computational process modeling of selective laser melting have been also conducted including; i) microstructural analysis of grain sizes and growth directions using SEM imaging and machine learning algorithms, ii) analysis of thermal imaging for spattering, heating/cooling rates and meltpool size, iii) predicting thermal field, meltpool size, and growth directions via thermal gradients using 3D FE simulations, iv) predicting localized solidification using the Phase Field method. These computational process models and predictive models, once utilized by industry to optimize process parameters, have the ultimate potential to improve performance of

  1. The effect of discounting, different mortality reduction schemes and predictive cohort life tables on risk acceptability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rackwitz, Ruediger

    2006-01-01

    Technical facilities should be optimal with respect to benefits and cost. Optimization of technical facilities involving risks for human life and limb require an acceptability criterion and suitable discount rates both for the public and the operator depending on for whom the optimization is carried out. The life quality index is presented and embedded into modem socio-economic concepts. A general risk acceptability criterion is derived. The societal life saving cost to be used in optimization as life saving or compensation cost and the societal willingness-to-pay based on the societal value of a statistical life or on the societal life quality index are developed. Different mortality reduction schemes are studied. Also, predictive cohort life tables are derived and applied. Discount rates γ must be long-term averages in view of the time horizon of some 20 to more than 100 years for the facilities of interest and net of inflation and taxes. While the operator may use long-term averages from the financial market for his cost-benefit analysis the assessment of interest rates for investments of the public into risk reduction is more difficult. The classical Ramsey model decomposes the real interest rate (=output growth rate) into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is proposed to use a relatively small interest rate of 3% implying a rate of time preference of consumption of about 1%. This appears intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Risk-consequence curves are derived for an example

  2. Self-concept clarity and religious orientations: prediction of purpose in life and self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Błażek, Magdalena; Besta, Tomasz

    2012-09-01

    The present study concerns the relationship between self-concept clarity, religiosity, and well-being, as well as the mediating influence of religiosity on the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of meaning in life and self-esteem. Self-concept clarity was found to be a significant predictor of sense of meaning in life and self-esteem; intrinsic religious orientation was found to be a predictor of sense of meaning in life, while the quest religious orientation was a predictor for self-esteem. The cross-products of self-concept clarity and intrinsic religious orientation were found to be related to the sense of purpose in life, which would point to religiosity being a mediator of the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of purpose in life. The cross-products of self-concept clarity and quest religious orientation were found to be a predictor of self-esteem, which indicates a mediating effect of this religious orientation in the relationship of self-concept clarity and self-esteem.

  3. Predictive Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Underwater Impulsive Sources on Marine Life

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lazauski, Colin J

    2007-01-01

    A method is provided to predict the biological consequences to marine animals from exposure to multiple underwater impulsive sources by simulating underwater explosions over a defined period of time...

  4. An Adaptive Recurrent Neural Network for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging science of predicting the health condition of a system (or its components) based upon current and previous system states. A reliable...

  5. Advanced Materials Test Methods for Improved Life Prediction of Turbine Engine Components

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stubbs, Jack

    2000-01-01

    Phase I final report developed under SBIR contract for Topic # AF00-149, "Durability of Turbine Engine Materials/Advanced Material Test Methods for Improved Use Prediction of Turbine Engine Components...

  6. Overview of statistical methods, models and analysis for predicting equipment end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    Utility equipment can be operated and maintained for many years following installation. However, as the equipment ages, utility operators must decide whether to extend the service life or replace the equipment. Condition assessment modelling is used by many utilities to determine the condition of equipment and to prioritize the maintenance or repair. Several factors are weighted and combined in assessment modelling, which gives a single index number to rate the equipment. There is speculation that this index alone may not be adequate for a business case to rework or replace an asset because it only ranks an asset into a particular category. For that reason, a new methodology was developed to determine the economic end of life of an asset. This paper described the different statistical methods available and their use in determining the remaining service life of electrical equipment. A newly developed Excel-based demonstration computer tool is also an integral part of the deliverables of this project.

  7. History of major depressive disorder prospectively predicts worse quality of life in women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jim, Heather S L; Small, Brent J; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B

    2012-06-01

    Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n = 29) and no history of depression (n = 144). Women with Stages 0-II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p ≤ 0.01). Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression.

  8. History of Major Depressive Disorder Prospectively Predicts Worse Quality of Life in Women with Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Brent J.; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. Purpose The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n=29) and no history of depression (n=144). Methods Women with Stages 0–II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Results Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p≤0.01). Conclusions Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression. PMID:22167580

  9. Shelf-life prediction models for ready-to-eat fresh cut salads: Testing in real cold chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsironi, Theofania; Dermesonlouoglou, Efimia; Giannoglou, Marianna; Gogou, Eleni; Katsaros, George; Taoukis, Petros

    2017-01-02

    The aim of the study was to develop and test the applicability of predictive models for shelf-life estimation of ready-to-eat (RTE) fresh cut salads in realistic distribution temperature conditions in the food supply chain. A systematic kinetic study of quality loss of RTE mixed salad (lollo rosso lettuce-40%, lollo verde lettuce-45%, rocket-15%) packed under modified atmospheres (3% O 2 , 10% CO 2 , 87% N 2 ) was conducted. Microbial population (total viable count, Pseudomonas spp., lactic acid bacteria), vitamin C, colour and texture were the measured quality parameters. Kinetic models for these indices were developed to determine the quality loss and calculate product remaining shelf-life (SL R ). Storage experiments were conducted at isothermal (2.5-15°C) and non-isothermal temperature conditions (T eff =7.8°C defined as the constant temperature that results in the same quality value as the variable temperature distribution) for validation purposes. Pseudomonas dominated spoilage, followed by browning and chemical changes. The end of shelf-life correlated with a Pseudomonas spp. level of 8 log(cfu/g), and 20% loss of the initial vitamin C content. The effect of temperature on these quality parameters was expressed by the Arrhenius equation; activation energy (E a ) value was 69.1 and 122.6kJ/mol for Pseudomonas spp. growth and vitamin C loss rates, respectively. Shelf-life prediction models were also validated in real cold chain conditions (including the stages of transport to and storage at retail distribution center, transport to and display at 7 retail stores, transport to and storage in domestic refrigerators). The quality level and SL R estimated after 2-3days of domestic storage (time of consumption) ranged between 1 and 8days at 4°C and was predicted within satisfactory statistical error by the kinetic models. T eff in the cold chain ranged between 3.7 and 8.3°C. Using the validated models, SL R of RTE fresh cut salad can be estimated at any point of

  10. Informed decision making about predictive DNA tests: arguments for more public visibility of personal deliberations about the good life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boenink, Marianne; van der Burg, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Since its advent, predictive DNA testing has been perceived as a technology that may have considerable impact on the quality of people's life. The decision whether or not to use this technology is up to the individual client. However, to enable well considered decision making both the negative as well as the positive freedom of the individual should be supported. In this paper, we argue that current professional and public discourse on predictive DNA-testing is lacking when it comes to supporting positive freedom, because it is usually framed in terms of risk and risk management. We show how this 'risk discourse' steers thinking on the good life in a particular way. We go on to argue that empirical research into the actual deliberation and decision making processes of individuals and families may be used to enrich the environment of personal deliberation in three ways: (1) it points at a richer set of values that deliberators can take into account, (2) it acknowledges the shared nature of genes, and (3) it shows how one might frame decisions in a non-binary way. We argue that the public sharing and discussing of stories about personal deliberations offers valuable input for others who face similar choices: it fosters their positive freedom to shape their view of the good life in relation to DNA-diagnostics. We conclude by offering some suggestions as to how to realize such public sharing of personal stories.

  11. Novel Approach for Lithium-Ion Battery On-Line Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on Permutation Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luping Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The degradation of lithium-ion battery often leads to electrical system failure. Battery remaining useful life (RUL prediction can effectively prevent this failure. Battery capacity is usually utilized as health indicator (HI for RUL prediction. However, battery capacity is often estimated on-line and it is difficult to be obtained by monitoring on-line parameters. Therefore, there is a great need to find a simple and on-line prediction method to solve this issue. In this paper, as a novel HI, permutation entropy (PE is extracted from the discharge voltage curve for analyzing battery degradation. Then the similarity between PE and battery capacity are judged by Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses. Experiment results illustrate the effectiveness and excellent similar performance of the novel HI for battery fading indication. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid approach combining Variational mode decomposition (VMD denoising technique, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, and GM(1,1 models for RUL prediction. Experiment results illustrate the accuracy of the proposed approach for lithium-ion battery on-line RUL prediction.

  12. Surrogate inaccuracy in predicting older adults' desire for life-sustaining interventions in the event of decisional incapacity: is it due in part to erroneous quality-of-life assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Gina; Sene, Modou; Arcand, Marcel

    2017-07-01

    Family members are often called upon to make decisions for an incapacitated relative. Yet they have difficulty predicting a loved one's desire to receive treatments in hypothetical situations. We tested the hypothesis that this difficulty could in part be explained by discrepant quality-of-life assessments. The data come from 235 community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and over who rated their quality of life and desire for specified interventions in four health states (current state, mild to moderate stroke, incurable brain cancer, and severe dementia). All ratings were made on Likert-type scales. Using identical rating scales, a surrogate chosen by the older adult was asked to predict the latter's responses. Linear mixed models were fitted to determine whether differences in quality-of-life ratings between the older adult and surrogate were associated with surrogates' inaccuracy in predicting desire for treatment. The difference in quality-of-life ratings was a significant predictor of prediction inaccuracy for the three hypothetical health states (p quality of life compared to the older adult, the more he or she overestimated the older adult's desire to be treated. Discrepant quality-of-life ratings are associated with surrogates' difficulty in predicting desire for life-sustaining interventions in hypothetical situations. This finding underscores the importance of discussing anticipated quality of life in states of cognitive decline, to better prepare family members for making difficult decisions for their loved ones. ISRCTN89993391.

  13. Predicting the Job and Life Satisfaction of Italian Teachers: Test of a Social Cognitive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W.; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore; Ginevra, Maria C.; Duffy, Ryan D.; Brown, Steven D.

    2011-01-01

    This study tested a social cognitive model of work and life satisfaction (Lent & Brown, 2006, 2008) in a sample of 235 Italian school teachers. The model offered good overall fit to the data, though not all individual path coefficients were significant. Three of five predictors (favorable work conditions, efficacy-relevant supports, and…

  14. Profiles of Observed Infant Anger Predict Preschool Behavior Problems: Moderation by Life Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Davidson, Richard J.; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2014-01-01

    Using both traditional composites and novel profiles of anger, we examined associations between infant anger and preschool behavior problems in a large, longitudinal data set (N = 966). We also tested the role of life stress as a moderator of the link between early anger and the development of behavior problems. Although traditional measures of…

  15. Life prediction of different commercial dental implants as influence by uncertainties in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, M A

    2012-12-01

    Probabilistic analyses allow the effect of uncertainty in system parameters to be determined. In the literature, many researchers have investigated static loading effects on dental implants. However, the intrinsic variability and uncertainty of most of the main problem parameters are not accounted for. The objective of this research was to apply a probabilistic computational approach to predict the fatigue life of three different commercial dental implants considering the variability and uncertainty in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions. For one of the commercial dental implants, the influence of its diameter in the fatigue life performance was also studied. This stochastic technique was based on the combination of a probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) and a cumulative damage approach known as B-model. After 6 million of loading cycles, local failure probabilities of 0.3, 0.4 and 0.91 were predicted for the Lifecore, Avinent and GMI implants, respectively (diameter of 3.75mm). The influence of the diameter for the GMI implant was studied and the results predicted a local failure probability of 0.91 and 0.1 for the 3.75mm and 5mm, respectively. In all cases the highest failure probability was located at the upper screw-threads. Therefore, the probabilistic methodology proposed herein may be a useful tool for performing a qualitative comparison between different commercial dental implants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Optimization of Steamed Meals Based on Composite Flour (Taro, Banana, Green Bean) and Its Predicted Shelf Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunarmani; Setyadjit; Ermi, S.

    2018-05-01

    Ongol-ongol is for food diversification by mixing composite flour of taro, banana and mung bean, then was steamed by hot air. The purpose of this study was to find out the optimum way to produce ‘ongol-ongol’ from composite flour and to know the storage life by prediction method. The research consisted of two stages, namely the determination of the optimum formula of ‘ongol-ongol’ with Design Expert DX 8.1.6 software and the estimation of product shelf life of the optimum formula by ASLT (Accelerated Shelf Life Test) method. The optimum formula of the steamed meal was produced from composite flour and arenga flour with ratio of 50: 50 and flour to water ratio of 1: 1. The proximate content of steamed meal of optimum formula is 36.53% moisture content, ash content of 1,36%, fat content of 14.48%, protein level of 28.5%, and carbohydrate of 44.77% (w/w). Energy Value obtained from 100 g of ‘ongol-ongol’ was 320.8 Kcal. Recommended for steamed meal storage life is 12.54 days at ambient temperature.

  17. A Semi-analytical model for creep life prediction of butt-welded joints in cylindrical vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    There have been many investigations on the life assessment of high temperature weldments used in cylindrical pressure vessels, pipes and tubes over the last two decades or so. But to the author's knowledge, currently, there exists no practical, economical and relatively accurate model for creep life assessment of butt-welded joints in cylindrical pressure vessels. This paper describes a semi-analytical and economical model for creep life assessment of butt-welded joints. The first stage of the development of the model is described where the model takes into account the material discontinuities at the welded joint only. The development of the model to include other factors such as geometrical stress concentrations, residual stresses, etc will be reported separately. It has been shown that the proposed model can estimate the redistributions of stresses in the weld and Haz with an error of less than 4%. It has also been shown that the proposed model can conservatively predict the creep life of a butt-welded joint with an error of less than 16%

  18. Development of an Accelerated Test Design for Predicting the Service Life of the Solar Array at Mead, Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaines, G. B.; Thomas, R. E.; Noel, G. T.; Shilliday, T. S.; Wood, V. E.; Carmichael, D. C.

    1979-01-01

    An accelerated life test is described which was developed to predict the life of the 25 kW photovoltaic array installed near Mead, Nebraska. A quantitative model for accelerating testing using multiple environmental stresses was used to develop the test design. The model accounts for the effects of thermal stress by a relation of the Arrhenius form. This relation was then corrected for the effects of nonthermal environmental stresses, such as relative humidity, atmospheric pollutants, and ultraviolet radiation. The correction factors for the nonthermal stresses included temperature-dependent exponents to account for the effects of interactions between thermal and nonthermal stresses on the rate of degradation of power output. The test conditions, measurements, and data analyses for the accelerated tests are presented. Constant-temperature, cyclic-temperature, and UV types of tests are specified, incorporating selected levels of relative humidity and chemical contamination and an imposed forward-bias current and static electric field.

  19. Ambulatory fall-risk assessment: amount and quality of daily-life gait predict falls in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Schooten, Kimberley S; Pijnappels, Mirjam; Rispens, Sietse M; Elders, Petra J M; Lips, Paul; van Dieën, Jaap H

    2015-05-01

    Ambulatory measurements of trunk accelerations can provide valuable information on the amount and quality of daily-life activities and contribute to the identification of individuals at risk of falls. We compared associations between retrospective and prospective falls with potential risk factors as measured by daily-life accelerometry. In addition, we investigated predictive value of these parameters for 6-month prospective falls. One week of trunk accelerometry (DynaPort MoveMonitor) was obtained in 169 older adults (mean age 75). The amount of daily activity and quality of gait were determined and validated questionnaires on fall-risk factors, grip strength, and trail making test were obtained. Six-month fall incidence was obtained retrospectively by recall and prospectively by fall diaries and monthly telephone contact. Among all participants, 35.5% had a history of ≥1 falls and 34.9% experienced ≥1 falls during 6-month follow-up. Logistic regressions showed that questionnaires, grip strength, and trail making test, as well as the amount and quality of gait, were significantly associated with falls. Significant associations differed between retrospective and prospective analyses although odds ratios indicated similar patterns. Predictive ability based on questionnaires, grip strength, and trail making test (area under the curve .68) improved substantially by accelerometry-derived parameters of the amount of gait (number of strides), gait quality (complexity, intensity, and smoothness), and their interactions (area under the curve .82). Daily-life accelerometry contributes substantially to the identification of individuals at risk of falls, and can predict falls in 6 months with good accuracy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. A physically-based constitutive model for SA508-III steel: Modeling and experimental verification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Dingqian [National Die & Mold CAD Engineering Research Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 1954 Huashan Rd., Shanghai 200030 (China); Chen, Fei, E-mail: feechn@gmail.com [National Die & Mold CAD Engineering Research Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 1954 Huashan Rd., Shanghai 200030 (China); Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Cui, Zhenshan, E-mail: cuizs@sjtu.edu.cn [National Die & Mold CAD Engineering Research Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 1954 Huashan Rd., Shanghai 200030 (China)

    2015-05-14

    Due to its good toughness and high weldability, SA508-III steel has been widely used in the components manufacturing of reactor pressure vessels (RPV) and steam generators (SG). In this study, the hot deformation behaviors of SA508-III steel are investigated by isothermal hot compression tests with forming temperature of (950–1250)°C and strain rate of (0.001–0.1)s{sup −1}, and the corresponding flow stress curves are obtained. According to the experimental results, quantitative analysis of work hardening and dynamic softening behaviors is presented. The critical stress and critical strain for initiation of dynamic recrystallization are calculated by setting the second derivative of the third order polynomial. Based on the classical stress–dislocation relation and the kinetics of dynamic recrystallization, a two-stage constitutive model is developed to predict the flow stress of SA508-III steel. Comparisons between the predicted and measured flow stress indicate that the established physically-based constitutive model can accurately characterize the hot deformations for the steel. Furthermore, a successful numerical simulation of the industrial upsetting process is carried out by implementing the developed constitutive model into a commercial software, which evidences that the physically-based constitutive model is practical and promising to promote industrial forging process for nuclear components.

  1. Physics-based scoring of protein-ligand interactions: explicit polarizability, quantum mechanics and free energies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryce, Richard A

    2011-04-01

    The ability to accurately predict the interaction of a ligand with its receptor is a key limitation in computer-aided drug design approaches such as virtual screening and de novo design. In this article, we examine current strategies for a physics-based approach to scoring of protein-ligand affinity, as well as outlining recent developments in force fields and quantum chemical techniques. We also consider advances in the development and application of simulation-based free energy methods to study protein-ligand interactions. Fuelled by recent advances in computational algorithms and hardware, there is the opportunity for increased integration of physics-based scoring approaches at earlier stages in computationally guided drug discovery. Specifically, we envisage increased use of implicit solvent models and simulation-based scoring methods as tools for computing the affinities of large virtual ligand libraries. Approaches based on end point simulations and reference potentials allow the application of more advanced potential energy functions to prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities. Comprehensive evaluation of polarizable force fields and quantum mechanical (QM)/molecular mechanical and QM methods in scoring of protein-ligand interactions is required, particularly in their ability to address challenging targets such as metalloproteins and other proteins that make highly polar interactions. Finally, we anticipate increasingly quantitative free energy perturbation and thermodynamic integration methods that are practical for optimization of hits obtained from screened ligand libraries.

  2. A physically-based constitutive model for SA508-III steel: Modeling and experimental verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Dingqian; Chen, Fei; Cui, Zhenshan

    2015-01-01

    Due to its good toughness and high weldability, SA508-III steel has been widely used in the components manufacturing of reactor pressure vessels (RPV) and steam generators (SG). In this study, the hot deformation behaviors of SA508-III steel are investigated by isothermal hot compression tests with forming temperature of (950–1250)°C and strain rate of (0.001–0.1)s −1 , and the corresponding flow stress curves are obtained. According to the experimental results, quantitative analysis of work hardening and dynamic softening behaviors is presented. The critical stress and critical strain for initiation of dynamic recrystallization are calculated by setting the second derivative of the third order polynomial. Based on the classical stress–dislocation relation and the kinetics of dynamic recrystallization, a two-stage constitutive model is developed to predict the flow stress of SA508-III steel. Comparisons between the predicted and measured flow stress indicate that the established physically-based constitutive model can accurately characterize the hot deformations for the steel. Furthermore, a successful numerical simulation of the industrial upsetting process is carried out by implementing the developed constitutive model into a commercial software, which evidences that the physically-based constitutive model is practical and promising to promote industrial forging process for nuclear components

  3. Physically based model for extracting dual permeability parameters using non-Newtonian fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Najm, M. R.; Basset, C.; Stewart, R. D.; Hauswirth, S.

    2017-12-01

    Dual permeability models are effective for the assessment of flow and transport in structured soils with two dominant structures. The major challenge to those models remains in the ability to determine appropriate and unique parameters through affordable, simple, and non-destructive methods. This study investigates the use of water and a non-Newtonian fluid in saturated flow experiments to derive physically-based parameters required for improved flow predictions using dual permeability models. We assess the ability of these two fluids to accurately estimate the representative pore sizes in dual-domain soils, by determining the effective pore sizes of macropores and micropores. We developed two sub-models that solve for the effective macropore size assuming either cylindrical (e.g., biological pores) or planar (e.g., shrinkage cracks and fissures) pore geometries, with the micropores assumed to be represented by a single effective radius. Furthermore, the model solves for the percent contribution to flow (wi) corresponding to the representative macro and micro pores. A user-friendly solver was developed to numerically solve the system of equations, given that relevant non-Newtonian viscosity models lack forms conducive to analytical integration. The proposed dual-permeability model is a unique attempt to derive physically based parameters capable of measuring dual hydraulic conductivities, and therefore may be useful in reducing parameter uncertainty and improving hydrologic model predictions.

  4. Reliability Evaluation on Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 617 for a Very High Temperature Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Hong, Sung-Deok; Kim, Yong-Wan; Park, Jae-Young; Kim, Seon-Jin

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates the reliability of creep rupture life under service conditions of Alloy 617, which is considered as one of the candidate materials for use in a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) system. A Z-parameter, which represents the deviation of creep rupture data from the master curve, was used for the reliability analysis of the creep rupture data of Alloy 617. A Service-condition Creep Rupture Interference (SCRI) model, which can consider both the scattering of the creep rupture data and the fluctuations of temperature and stress under any service conditions, was also used for evaluating the reliability of creep rupture life. The statistical analysis showed that the scattering of creep rupture data based on Z-parameter was supported by normal distribution. The values of reliability decreased rapidly with increasing amplitudes of temperature and stress fluctuations. The results established that the reliability decreased with an increasing service time.

  5. Early-life sensitization to hen's egg predicts asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis at 14 years of age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Elisabeth Soegaard; Kjaer, Henrik Fomsgaard; Eller, Esben

    2017-01-01

    to groups of and to individual allergens and asthma and RC at 6 and 14 years compared to a reference group with no sensitization. RESULTS: Both transient and persistent early-life sensitization to cow's milk or hen's egg proteins were associated with asthma (aOR 3.99(1.41-11.32) and 5.95(1.78-19.92)) and RC...... (aOR 2.94(1.19-7.28) and 6.18(1.86-20.53)) at 14 years, this association being driven mainly by sensitization to hen's egg. Transient early-life sensitization to HDM had increased risk of asthma (aOR 3.80(1.17-12.41)) at 14 years. CONCLUSIONS: Early transient and persistent IgE sensitization to hen......'s egg was associated with asthma and RC at 14 years. Furthermore, sensitization to HDM was associated with asthma at 14 years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  6. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  7. Do Materialism, Intrinsic Aspirations, and Meaning in Life Predict Students' Meanings of Education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson-King, Donna; Mitchell, Amanda M.

    2011-01-01

    Though there is a deep literature on factors that predict college attendance and on the effects of college attendance on students' development, there has been little research on what education actually means to students themselves. This study was conducted to examine whether materialism, intrinsic aspirations, and the search for meaning in life…

  8. Concept of frequency separation in life prediction for time-dependent fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffin, L.F.

    1976-01-01

    Two methods are described to improve the predictive capability of the frequency-modified fatigue equations for time-dependent fatigue. These built-on the earlier approach and are applicable to severely unbalanced hysteresis loops. Comparisons made with various wave-shape investigations show favorable results. A new form of hysteresis loop is introduced utilizing frequency separation concepts. 4 tables, 11 fig

  9. Serviceability modeling : predicting and extending the useful service life of FRT-plywood roof sheathing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerrold E. Winandy

    2000-01-01

    One of the most, if not the most, efficient methods of extending our existing forest resource is to prolong the service life of wood currently in-service by using those existing structures to meet our future needs (Hamilton and Winandy 1998). It is currently estimated that over 7 x 109 m3 (3 trillion bd. ft) of wood is currently in service within the United States of...

  10. Predicting Smartphone Battery Life based on Comprehensive and Real-time Usage Data

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Huoran; Liu, Xuanzhe; Mei, Qiaozhu

    2018-01-01

    Smartphones and smartphone apps have undergone an explosive growth in the past decade. However, smartphone battery technology hasn't been able to keep pace with the rapid growth of the capacity and the functionality of smartphones and apps. As a result, battery has always been a bottleneck of a user's daily experience of smartphones. An accurate estimation of the remaining battery life could tremendously help the user to schedule their activities and use their smartphones more efficiently. Ex...

  11. Prediction of life stress on athletes’ burnout: the dual role of perceived stress

    OpenAIRE

    Chyi, Theresa; Lu, Frank Jing-Horng; Wang, Erica T.W.; Hsu, Ya-Wen; Chang, Ko-Hsin

    2018-01-01

    Although many studies adopted Smith’s (1986) cognitive–affective model of athletic burnout in examining stress–burnout relationship, very few studies examined the mediating/moderating role of perceived stress on the stress–burnout relationship. We sampled 195 college student-athletes and assessed their life stress, perceived stress, and burnout. Correlation analyses found all study variables correlated. Two separate hierarchical regression analyses found that the “distress” component of perce...

  12. STRUCTURAL SCALE LIFE PREDICTION OF AERO STRUCTURES EXPERIENCING COMBINED EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-01

    complex loading environments. Today’s state of the art methods cannot address structural reliability under combined environment conditions due to...probabilistically assess the structural life under complex loading environments. Today’s state of the art methods cannot address structural reliability...Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, San Diego, CA, January 4th‐8th, 2016. Clark, L. D., Bae, H., Gobal, K., and Penmetsa, R., “ Engineering

  13. Continuum damage mechanics based approach to the fatigue life prediction of cast aluminium alloy with considering the effect of porosity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Xiaojia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A damage mechanics based approach is applied for the study of fatigue behaviour of high pressure die cast ADC12 aluminium alloy. A damage coupled elastoplastic constitutive model is presented according to the concept of effective stress and the hypothesis of strain equivalence. An elastic fatigue damage model taking into account the pore-induced stress concentration is developed to investigate fatigue damage evolution of the specimens subjected to cyclic loading. The predicted lives for the specimens with different sizes of pores are consistent with the experimental data. The pore-induced fatigue damage and the variation of fatigue life along with the size of pores are also investigated.

  14. Residual stress evaluation and fatigue life prediction in the welded joint by X-ray diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Keun Bong; Kim, Jae Hoon

    2009-01-01

    In the fossil power plant, the reliability of the components which consist of the many welded parts depends on the quality of welding. The residual stress is occurred by the heat flux of high temperature during weld process. This decreases the mechanical properties as the strength of fatigue and fracture or occurs the stress corrosion cracking and fatigue fracture. The residual stress of the welded part in the recently constructed power plants has been the cause of a variety of accidents. The objective of this study is measurement of the residual stress by X-ray diffraction method and to estimate the feasibility of this application for fatigue life assessment of the high-temperature pipeline. The materials used for the study is P92 steel for the use of high temperature pipe on super critical condition. The test results were analyzed by the distributed characteristics of residual stresses and the Full Width at Half Maximum intensity (FWHM) in x-ray diffraction intensity curve. Also, X-ray diffraction tests using specimens simulated low cycle fatigue damage were performed in order to analyze fatigue properties when fatigue damage conditions become various stages. As a result of X-ray diffraction tests for specimens simulated fatigue damages, we conformed that the ratio of the FWHM due to fatigue damage has linear relationship with fatigue life ratio algebraically. From this relationships, it was suggested that direct expectation of the life consumption rate was feasible.

  15. Fatigue analysis and life prediction of composite highway bridge decks under traffic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando N. Leitão

    Full Text Available Steel and composite (steel-concrete highway bridges are currently subjected to dynamic actions of variable magnitude due to convoy of vehicles crossing on the deck pavement. These dynamic actions can generate the nucleation of fractures or even their propagation on the bridge deck structure. Proper consideration of all of the aspects mentioned pointed our team to develop an analysis methodology with emphasis to evaluate the stresses through a dynamic analysis of highway bridge decks including the action of vehicles. The design codes recommend the application of the curves S-N associated to the Miner's damage rule to evaluate the fatigue and service life of steel and composite (steel-concrete bridges. In this work, the developed computational model adopted the usual mesh refinement techniques present in finite element method simulations implemented in the ANSYS program. The investigated highway bridge is constituted by four longitudinal composite girders and a concrete deck, spanning 40.0m by 13.5m. The analysis methodology and procedures presented in the design codes were applied to evaluate the fatigue of the bridge determining the service life of the structure. The main conclusions of this investigation focused on alerting structural engineers to the possible distortions, associated to the steel and composite bridge's service life when subjected to vehicle's dynamic actions.

  16. Self-care and Professional Quality of Life: Predictive Factors among MSW Practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kori R Bloomquist

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study explored the effects of self-care practices and perceptions on positive and negative indicators of professional quality of life, including burnout, secondary traumatic stress, and compassion satisfaction among MSW practitioners. Results reveal that while social workers value and believe self-care is effective in alleviating job-related stress, they engage in self-care on a limited basis. Findings indicate that MSW programs and employers do not teach social workers how to effectively engage in self-care practice. Various domains of self-care practice contribute differently to indicators of professional quality of life. This study sheds light on the under-studied relationship between social worker self-care and professional quality of life, provides insights into the types of activities practiced and not practiced by MSW practitioners, and identifies gaps between perceived value and effective teaching of self-care. Implications exist for social work educators and employers and the potential to support a healthier, sustainable workforce.

  17. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  18. Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-04-01

    We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

  19. Early changes in socioeconomic status do not predict changes in body mass in the first decade of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starkey, Leighann; Revenson, Tracey A

    2015-04-01

    Many studies link childhood socioeconomic status (SES) to body mass index (BMI), but few account for the impact of socioeconomic mobility throughout the lifespan. This study aims to investigate the impact of socioeconomic mobility on changes in BMI in childhood. Analyses tested whether [1] socioeconomic status influences BMI, [2] changes in socioeconomic status impact changes in BMI, and [3] timing of socioeconomic status mobility impacts BMI. Secondary data spanning birth to age 9 were analyzed. SES and BMI were investigated with gender, birth weight, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal nativity as covariates. Autoregressive structural equation modeling and latent growth modeling were used. Socioeconomic status in the first year of life predicted body mass index. Child covariates were consistently associated with body mass index. Rate of change in socioeconomic status did not predict change in body mass index. The findings suggest that early socioeconomic status may most influence body mass in later childhood.

  20. Symptoms of borderline personality disorder predict interpersonal (but not independent) stressful life events in a community sample of older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Abigail D; Gleason, Marci E J; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2013-05-01

    Individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often experience stressful life events at a higher frequency than those without BPD. It is less clear what specific types of events are involved in this effect, and it has not been determined whether some features of BPD are more important than others in accounting for this effect. The latter issue is important in light of the heterogeneous nature of this diagnostic construct. These issues were examined in a large, representative community sample of men and women, ages 55-64. Ten Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev., DSM-IV-TR, Washington, DC, American Psychiatric Association, 2000) personality disorders were assessed at baseline using the Structured Interview for DSM-IV Personality: SIDP-IV (B. Pfohl, N. Blum, & M. Zimmerman, 1997, Washington, DC, American Psychiatric Press). Life events were measured at three sequential assessments following baseline at 6-month (N = 1,294), 12-month (N = 1,070), and 18-month (N = 837) follow-ups. Stressful life events were identified using a self-report questionnaire (LTE-Q; List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire: A subset of prescribed life events with considerable long-term contextual threat by T. Brugha, C. Bebbington, P. Tennant, and J. Hurry, 1985, Psychological Medicine, Vol. 15, pp. 189-194.) followed by a telephone interview. Only borderline personality pathology was related to an increase in the frequency of interpersonal stressful life events. Three specific symptoms of BPD were largely responsible for this connection: unstable interpersonal relationships, impulsivity, and chronic feelings of emptiness (negative association). Symptoms of avoidant and schizoid personality disorders were associated with a reduced number of stressful life events that are considered to be outside a person's control (e.g., serious illness, injury, or death of a loved one). None of the personality disorders predicted an increase in the number of

  1. CorVue algorithm efficacy to predict heart failure in real life: Unnecessary and potentially misleading information?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfy, Julia Anna; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Milla, Juan Martinez; Iglesias, Jose Antonio; de la Vieja, Juan Jose; Sanchez-Borque, Pepa; Miracle, Angel; Rubio, Jose Manuel

    2018-06-01

    Heart failure (HF) hospitalizations have a negative impact on quality of life and imply important costs. Intrathoracic impedance (ITI) variations detected by cardiac devices have been hypothesized to predict HF hospitalizations. Although Optivol™ algorithm (Medtronic) has been widely studied, CorVue™ algorithm (St. Jude Medical) long term efficacy has not been systematically evaluated in a "real life" cohort. CorVue™ was activated in ICD/CRT-D patients to store information about ITI measures. Clinical events (new episodes of HF requiring treatment and hospitalizations) and CorVue™ data were recorded every three months. Appropriate CorVue™ detection for HF was considered if it occurred in the four prior weeks to the clinical event. 53 ICD/CRT-D (26 ICD and 27 CRT-D) patients (67±1 years-old, 79% male) were included. Device position was subcutaneous in 28 patients. At inclusion, mean LVEF was 25±7% and 27 patients (51%) were in NYHA class I, 18 (34%) class II and 8 (15%) class III. After a mean follow-up of 17±9 months, 105 ITI drops alarms were detected in 32 patients (60%). Only six alarms were appropriate (true positive) and required hospitalization. Eighteen patients (34%) presented 25 clinical episodes (12 hospitalizations and 13 ER/ambulatory treatment modifications). Nineteen of these clinical episodes (76%) remained undetected by the CorVue™ (false negative). Sensitivity of CorVue™ resulted in 24%, specificity was 70%, positive predictive value of 6% and negative predictive value of 93%. CorVue™ showed a low sensitivity to predict HF events. Therefore, routinely activation of this algorithm could generate misleading information. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Prediction of residual life of low-cycle fatigue in austenitic stainless steel based on indentation test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yonezu, Akio; Touda, Yuya; Kim, HakGui; Yoneda, Keishi; Sakihara, Masayuki; Minoshima; Kohji

    2011-01-01

    In this study, a method to predict residual life of low-cycle fatigue in austenitic stainless steel (SUS316NG) was proposed based on indentation test. Low-cycle fatigue tests for SUS316NG were first conducted based on uniaxial tensile-compressive loading under the control of true strain range. Applied strain ranges were varied from about 3 to 12%. Their hysteresis loops of stress and strain were monitored during the fatigue tests. Plastic deformation range in hysteresis loop at each cycle could be roughly expressed by bi-linear hardening rule, whose plastic properties involve yield stress and work-hardening coefficient. The cyclic plastic properties were found to be dependent on the number of cycles and applied strain range, due to work-hardening. We experimentally investigated the empirical relationship between the plastic properties and number of cycles for each applied strain range. It is found that the relationship quantitatively predicts the applied strain range and number of cycles, when the plastic properties, or yield stress and work-hardening coefficient were known. Indentation tests were applied to the samples subjected to low cycle fatigue test, in order to quantitatively determine the plastic properties. The estimated properties were assigned to the proposed relationship, yielding the applied strain range and the cycle numbers. The proposed method was applied to the several stainless steel samples subjected to low cycle fatigue tests, suggesting that their residual lives could be reasonably predicted. Our method is thus useful for predicting the residual life of low-cycle fatigue in austenitic stainless steel. (author)

  3. A method for predicting the fatigue life of pre-corroded 2024-T3 aluminum from breaking load tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruenberg, Karl Martin

    Characterization of material properties is necessary for design purposes and has been a topic of research for many years. Over the last several decades, much progress has been made in identifying metrics to describe fracture mechanics properties and developing procedures to measure the appropriate values. However, in the context of design, there has not been as much success in quantifying the susceptibility of a material to corrosion damage and its subsequent impact on material behavior in the framework of fracture mechanics. A natural next step in understanding the effects of corrosion damage was to develop a link between standard material test procedures and fatigue life in the presence of corrosion. Simply stated, the goal of this investigation was to formulate a cheaper and quicker method for assessing the consequences of corrosion on remaining fatigue life. For this study, breaking load specimens and fatigue specimens of a single nominal gage (0.063″) of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 were exposed to three levels of corrosion. The breaking load specimens were taken from three different material lots, and the fatigue tests were carried out at three stress levels. All failed specimens, both breaking load and fatigue specimens, were examined to characterize the damage state(s) and failure mechanism(s). Correlations between breaking load results and fatigue life results in the presence of corrosion damage were developed using a fracture mechanics foundation and the observed mechanisms of failure. Where breaking load tests showed a decrease in strength due to increased corrosion exposure, the corresponding set of fatigue tests showed a decrease in life. And where breaking load tests from different specimen orientations exhibited similar levels of strength, the corresponding set of fatigue specimens showed similar lives. The spread from shortest to longest fatigue lives among the different corrosion conditions decreased at the higher stress levels. Life predictions based

  4. Integration of artificial intelligence methods and life cycle assessment to predict energy output and environmental impacts of paddy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabavi-Pelesaraei, Ashkan; Rafiee, Shahin; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa; Chau, Kwok-Wing

    2018-08-01

    Prediction of agricultural energy output and environmental impacts play important role in energy management and conservation of environment as it can help us to evaluate agricultural energy efficiency, conduct crops production system commissioning, and detect and diagnose faults of crop production system. Agricultural energy output and environmental impacts can be readily predicted by artificial intelligence (AI), owing to the ease of use and adaptability to seek optimal solutions in a rapid manner as well as the use of historical data to predict future agricultural energy use pattern under constraints. This paper conducts energy output and environmental impact prediction of paddy production in Guilan province, Iran based on two AI methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The amounts of energy input and output are 51,585.61MJkg -1 and 66,112.94MJkg -1 , respectively, in paddy production. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate environmental impacts of paddy production. Results show that, in paddy production, in-farm emission is a hotspot in global warming, acidification and eutrophication impact categories. ANN model with 12-6-8-1 structure is selected as the best one for predicting energy output. The correlation coefficient (R) varies from 0.524 to 0.999 in training for energy input and environmental impacts in ANN models. ANFIS model is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, with R for predicting output energy being 0.860 and, for environmental impacts, varying from 0.944 to 0.997. Results indicate that the multi-level ANFIS is a useful tool to managers for large-scale planning in forecasting energy output and environmental indices of agricultural production systems owing to its higher speed of computation processes compared to ANN model, despite ANN's higher accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Panic disorder and health-related quality of life: the predictive roles of anxiety sensitivity and trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Eun-Ho; Kim, Borah; Choe, Ah Young; Lee, Jun-Yeob; Choi, Tai Kiu; Lee, Sang-Hyuk

    2015-01-30

    Panic disorder (PD) is a very common anxiety disorder and is often a chronic disabling condition. However, little is known about the factors that predict health-related quality of life (HRQOL) other than sociodemographic factors and illness-related symptomatology that explain HRQOL in only small to modest degrees. This study explored whether anxiety-related individual traits including anxiety sensitivity and trait anxiety can predict independently HRQOL in panic patients. Patients with panic disorder with or without agoraphobia (N=230) who met the diagnostic criteria in the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV were recruited. Stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the factors that predict HRQOL in panic disorder. HRQOL was assessed by the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Anxiety sensitivity was an independent predictor of bodily pain and social functioning whereas trait anxiety independently predicted all of the eight domains of the SF-36. Our data suggests that the assessment of symptomatology as well as individual anxiety-related trait should be included in the evaluation of HRQOL in panic patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Machine remaining useful life prediction: An integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy and high-order particle filtering approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chaochao; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

    2012-04-01

    Machine prognosis can be considered as the generation of long-term predictions that describe the evolution in time of a fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem so that timely maintenance can be performed to avoid catastrophic failures. This paper proposes an integrated RUL prediction method using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and high-order particle filtering, which forecasts the time evolution of the fault indicator and estimates the probability density function (pdf) of RUL. The ANFIS is trained and integrated in a high-order particle filter as a model describing the fault progression. The high-order particle filter is used to estimate the current state and carry out p-step-ahead predictions via a set of particles. These predictions are used to estimate the RUL pdf. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated via the real-world data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 helicopter planetary gear plate. The results demonstrate that it outperforms both the conventional ANFIS predictor and the particle-filter-based predictor where the fault growth model is a first-order model that is trained via the ANFIS.

  7. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. Comparing methodologies for structural identification and fatigue life prediction of a highway bridge

    OpenAIRE

    Pai, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham; Nussbaumer, Alain; Smith, Ian F. C.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function), and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are comp...

  9. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    OpenAIRE

    Pai, Sai G.S.; Nussbaumer, Alain; Smith, Ian F.C.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function), and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are comp...

  10. Service life prediction. Development of models for predicting the service life of power plant components subject to thermomechanical creep fatigue; Lebensdauervorhersage. Entwicklung von Modellen zur Lebensdauervorhersage von Kraftwerksbauteilen unter thermisch-mechanischer Kriechermuedungsbeanspruchung. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, L.; Scholz, A. [Technische Univ. Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Werkstoffkunde; Hartrott, P. von; Schlesinger, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    Extensive use is made of massive components of heat resistant and highly heat resistant materials in installations of the power and heating industry. These components are exposed to varying thermomechanical stress as a result of ramping-up and down processes. In this research project two computer-assisted methods of predicting service life until crack initiation were extended to include cases of thermomechanical multi-axis stress conducive to creep fatigue and of superposition of high-cycle stress on power plant components. Investigations were limited to rotor steel of type X12CrMoWVNbN10-1-1. Complex thermomechanical multi-axis experiments were performed on round, notched and cruciform test specimens of close-to-life dimensions in order to demonstrate by experiment the validity of these models. The results of these calculations showed an acceptable degree of agreement between experiment and simulation for both models. Calculations on earlier TMF experiments performed at IfW on hollow specimens of 1%CrMoNiV showed good predictability for both the SARA and the ThoMat programme. Calculations on experiments performed at MPA Stuttgart on model bodies consisting of the same 1%CrMoNiV showed a predictability of acceptable variability considering the complexity of the stresses involved. A further outcome of this project is that the use of SARA appears universally suitable for the construction of new plants and in the service area, while the use of ThoMat appears suited for detail optimisation in the development process.

  11. Childhood conscientiousness predicts the social gradient of smoking in adulthood: a life course analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluess, Michael; Bartley, Mel

    2015-04-01

    The social gradient in smoking is well known, with higher rates among those in less advantaged socioeconomic position. Some recent research has reported that personality characteristics partly explain this gradient. However, the majority of existing work is limited by cross-sectional designs unsuitable to determine whether differences in conscientiousness are a predictor or a product of social inequalities. Adopting a life course perspective, we investigated in the current paper the influence of conscientiousness in early and mid-life on the social gradient in smoking and the role of potential confounding factors in a large longitudinal cohort study. Using data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, we examined the extent to which two measures of conscientiousness, one assessed with a personality questionnaire at age 50 and one derived from three related items at 16 years in childhood, explained the social gradient of smoking at age 50 by comparing nested logistic regression models that included social class at birth, cognitive ability, attention and conduct problems at age 7, and educational qualification. Childhood conscientiousness was a significant predictor of smoking at 50 years (OR=0.86, CI (95%) 0.84 to 0.88), explaining 5.0% of the social gradient independent of all other variables. Childhood conscientiousness was a stronger predictor than adult conscientiousness, statistically accounting for the observed direct association of adult conscientiousness with smoking. Conscientiousness may be a predictor rather than a product of social differences in smoking. Inclusion of personality measures and adoption of a life course perspective add significantly to our understanding of health inequalities. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

  13. Interactive physically-based structural modeling of hydrocarbon systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosson, Mael; Grudinin, Sergei; Bouju, Xavier; Redon, Stephane

    2012-01-01

    Hydrocarbon systems have been intensively studied via numerical methods, including electronic structure computations, molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. Typically, these methods require an initial structural model (atomic positions and types, topology, etc.) that may be produced using scripts and/or modeling tools. For many systems, however, these building methods may be ineffective, as the user may have to specify the positions of numerous atoms while maintaining structural plausibility. In this paper, we present an interactive physically-based modeling tool to construct structural models of hydrocarbon systems. As the user edits the geometry of the system, atomic positions are also influenced by the Brenner potential, a well-known bond-order reactive potential. In order to be able to interactively edit systems containing numerous atoms, we introduce a new adaptive simulation algorithm, as well as a novel algorithm to incrementally update the forces and the total potential energy based on the list of updated relative atomic positions. The computational cost of the adaptive simulation algorithm depends on user-defined error thresholds, and our potential update algorithm depends linearly with the number of updated bonds. This allows us to enable efficient physically-based editing, since the computational cost is decoupled from the number of atoms in the system. We show that our approach may be used to effectively build realistic models of hydrocarbon structures that would be difficult or impossible to produce using other tools.

  14. On the development of life prediction methodologies for the failure of human teeth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalla, R.K.; Imbeni, V.; Kinney, J.H.; Marshall, S.J.; Ritchie, R.O.

    2002-09-18

    Human dentin is known to be susceptible to failure under cyclic loading. Surprisingly, there are few reports that quantify the effect of such loading, considering the fact that a typical tooth experiences a million or so loading cycles annually. In the present study, a systematic investigation is described of the effects of prolonged cyclic loading on human dentin in a simulated physiological environment. In vitro stress-life (S/N) data are discussed in the context of possible mechanisms of fatigue damage and failure.

  15. Composite Service Life Prediction via Fiber Bundle Testing. Evaluation of Testing Equipment and Data Acquisition System

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-12-01

    strength critical application for modern composites were filament-wound pressure vessels using glass fibers. What has highly motivated the effort of...stiffness to weight ratios the use of which is of cruisial importance in the aerospace industry. Another highly motivating aspect was the very high...single filament r’iber testing and can become more 29 3> C o - Pwo PwS ?w4 Pw3 Pw2 Pwl PSD Ps5 PS4 Ps3 Ps2 PS! homoiogous correspondence t ~ to Life ( Laqt

  16. Fatigue-creep life prediction for a notched specimen of 2[1]/[4]Cr-1Mo steel at 600 C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Tatsuo; Sakane, Masao; Fukuda, Yoshio; Igari, Toshihide; Miyahara, Mitsuo; Okazaki, Masakazu

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the life prediction of 2[1]/[4]Cr-1Mo notched specimens subjected to fast-fast, slow-slow and hold-time loadings at 600 C. The crack initiation lives of notched specimens were estimated based on the local stress-strain calculated by inelastic finite element analyses. For the life prediction, combinations of seven different constitutive models and five fatigue-creep damage laws were used. The applicability of the constitutive model and damage law is discussed. The constitutive models predict similar stress-strain relations at the notch root, leading to similar predicted lives. The damage model, however, has a much larger influence on the life prediction. ((orig.))

  17. Role of nutritional status in predicting quality of life outcomes in cancer--a systematic review of the epidemiological literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lis, Christopher G; Gupta, Digant; Lammersfeld, Carolyn A; Markman, Maurie; Vashi, Pankaj G

    2012-04-24

    Malnutrition is a significant factor in predicting cancer patients' quality of life (QoL). We systematically reviewed the literature on the role of nutritional status in predicting QoL in cancer. We searched MEDLINE database using the terms "nutritional status" in combination with "quality of life" together with "cancer". Human studies published in English, having nutritional status as one of the predictor variables, and QoL as one of the outcome measures were included. Of the 26 included studies, 6 investigated head and neck cancer, 8 gastrointestinal, 1 lung, 1 gynecologic and 10 heterogeneous cancers. 24 studies concluded that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL, 1 study showed that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL only in high-risk patients, while 1 study concluded that there was no association between nutritional status and QoL. Nutritional status is a strong predictor of QoL in cancer patients. We recommend that more providers implement the American Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN) guidelines for oncology patients, which includes nutritional screening, nutritional assessment and intervention as appropriate. Correcting malnutrition may improve QoL in cancer patients, an important outcome of interest to cancer patients, their caregivers, and families.

  18. Results from raw milk microbiological tests do not predict the shelf-life performance of commercially pasteurized fluid milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, N H; Ranieri, M L; Murphy, S C; Ralyea, R D; Wiedmann, M; Boor, K J

    2011-03-01

    Analytical tools that accurately predict the performance of raw milk following its manufacture into commercial food products are of economic interest to the dairy industry. To evaluate the ability of currently applied raw milk microbiological tests to predict the quality of commercially pasteurized fluid milk products, samples of raw milk and 2% fat pasteurized milk were obtained from 4 New York State fluid milk processors for a 1-yr period. Raw milk samples were examined using a variety of tests commonly applied to raw milk, including somatic cell count, standard plate count, psychrotrophic bacteria count, ropy milk test, coliform count, preliminary incubation count, laboratory pasteurization count, and spore pasteurization count. Differential and selective media were used to identify groups of bacteria present in raw milk. Pasteurized milk samples were held at 6°C for 21 d and evaluated for standard plate count, coliform count, and sensory quality throughout shelf-life. Bacterial isolates from select raw and pasteurized milk tests were identified using 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing. Linear regression analysis of raw milk test results versus results reflecting pasteurized milk quality consistently showed low R(2) values (tests and results from tests used to evaluate pasteurized milk quality. Our findings suggest the need for new raw milk tests that measure the specific biological barriers that limit shelf-life and quality of fluid milk products. Copyright © 2011 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Accuracy and Reliability in the Prediction of End-of-Life Performance of Solar Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Etienne

    2008-09-01

    The end-of-life power analysis of solar arrays is calculated using a combination of arithmetic and root square sums of loss factors. These loss factors are sometimes linked to degradations, sometimes linked to uncertainties. The uncertainties of the degradations are taken into account considering contractual "worst cases". This paper will put the first stones for a move "metrological" evaluation of the probable performance associated with a standard uncertainty. The turn from silicon to triple junction solar cells induces some changes in the degradation parameters of solar arrays: * The triple junction cells are more sensitive to UV darkening than silicon ones. * The cell voltage is higher and the current is lower. Then the cell strings are shorter, and there are more strings in parallel. This induces some changes in the reliability analyses and risk management. * The failure modes and failure rates of these cells have to be compared and discussed. We try to define improved rules to design solar arrays for end of life performance, for a better knowledge of the margins and a better reliability.

  20. Personality traits predict perceived health-related quality of life in persons with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarbo, Ignazio Roberto; Minacapelli, Eleonora; Falautano, Monica; Demontis, Silvia; Carpentras, Giovanni; Pugliatti, Maura

    2016-04-01

    Personality traits can affect health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in different disorders. In multiple sclerosis (MS), personality traits can determine patients' willingness to take on more risky treatment options, predispose to neuropsychiatric symptoms and affect coping strategies. We investigated the role of personality traits as possible predictors of HRQoL in a large cohort of persons with MS (PwMS). In total, 253 consecutively recruited PwMS were screened for intellectual deficits with Raven Colour Progressive Matrices (RCPM), state anxiety with STAI-X1 and major depression on a clinical basis. PwMS' self-perceived mental and physical health status was measured with the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), and the personality profile with the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ-R). The correlation between HRQoL and personality traits was investigated by means of analysis of variance, adjusting for possible confounders. Of the 253 MS patients, 195 (F:M=2.75), aged 41.7±10.2 years were included in the analysis. The variance of SF-36 mental and physical composite score was largely explained by extraversion and neuroticism. Our data confirm that PwMS' HRQoL is largely influenced by personality traits, which may therefore act as predictors of perceived quality of life and should be included in clinical and experimental settings focusing on HRQoL. © The Author(s), 2015.