Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.

2017-01-01

"Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campos, E [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. Note that some of the instrument observations require mathematical algorithms (retrievals) to convert a measured engineering variable into a useful geophysical measurement. While those types of retrieval measurements are identified, this study does not address particular methods for retrieval uncertainty. As well, the ARM Facility also provides engineered data products, or value-added products (VAPs), based on multiple instrument measurements. This study does not include uncertainty estimates for those data products. We propose here that a total measurement uncertainty should be calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). The study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. Instead, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available in the ARM community through the ARM instrument mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. As a result, this study will address the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty

Uncertainty assessment and comparison of different dose algorithms used to evaluate a two element LiF:Mg,Ti TL personal dosemeter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stadtmann, H.; Hranitzky, F.C.

2008-01-01

This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment and comparison study of different dose algorithms used for evaluating our routine two element TL whole body dosemeter. Due to the photon energy response of the two different filtered LiF:Mg,Ti detector elements the application of dose algorithms is necessary to assess the relevant photon doses over the rated energy range with an acceptable energy response. Three dose algorithms are designed to calculate the dose for the different dose equivalent quantities, i.e. personal dose equivalent H p (10) and H p (0.07) and photon dose equivalent H x used for personal monitoring before introducing personal dose equivalent. Based on experimental results both for free in air calibration as well as calibration on the ISO water slab phantom (type test data) a detailed uncertainty analysis war performed by means of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The uncertainty contribution of the individual detector element signals was taken into special consideration. (author)

Non-technical Issues in Design and Development of Personal Portable Devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Lhotska, Lenka; Cheshire, Paul; Pharow, Peter; Macku, David

2016-01-01

Mobile technologies are constantly evolving and with the development of Internet of Things we can expect continuous increase of various applications. Mobile technologies have undeniable opportunities to play an important role in health services. Concerning purely technical aspects, almost every problem can be solved. However, there are still many unsolved and unclear issues related with ethics and governance mechanisms for mobile phone applications. These issues are even more critical in medical and health care applications of mobile technologies. This paper tries to analyse ethical, and privacy-related challenges that may occur when introducing Personal Portable Devices (PPD) to collect and record personal health data in health care and welfare environment.

Reality and Analysis: Personal and Technical Reflections on the Working Lives of Six Women.

OpenAIRE

Chen, M.; Jhabvala, R.; Kanbur, R.; Mirani, N.; Osner, Karl (Eds) WIEGO

2004-01-01

A group of development analysts had a dialogue about labor market, trade and poverty issues in 2004. They preceded the dialogue with exposure to the realities of the lives of six remarkable women from the Self-Employed Women's Association (SEWA) in Gujarat, India. The struggles faced by the authors provided the frame for the technical dialogue that followed. This is a Compendium of personal and technical reflections of the analysts involved in the exercise.

Uncertainties in Organ Burdens Estimated from PAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Bone, T.R.

2004-01-01

To calculate committed effective dose equivalent, one needs to know the quantity of the radionuclide in all significantly irradiated organs (the organ burden) as a function of time following the intake. There are two major sources of uncertainty in an organ burden estimated from personal air sampling (PAS) data: (1) The uncertainty in going from the exposure measured with the PAS to the quantity of aerosol inhaled by the individual, and (2) The uncertainty in going from the intake to the organ burdens at any given time, taking into consideration the biological variability of the biokinetic models from person to person (interperson variability) and in one person over time (intra-person variability). We have been using biokinetic modeling methods developed by researchers at the University of Florida to explore the impact of inter-person variability on the uncertainty of organ burdens estimated from PAS data. These initial studies suggest that the uncertainties are so large that PAS might be considered to be a qualitative (rather than quantitative) technique. These results indicate that more studies should be performed to properly classify the reliability and usefulness of using PAS monitoring data to estimate organ burdens, organ dose, and ultimately CEDE

Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

2018-05-01

Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

NICE guidelines, clinical practice and antisocial personality disorder: the ethical implications of ontological uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickersgill, M D

2009-11-01

The British National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has recently (28 January 2009) released new guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of the psychiatric category antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Evident in these recommendations is a broader ambiguity regarding the ontology of ASPD. Although, perhaps, a mundane feature of much of medicine, in this case, ontological uncertainty has significant ethical implications as a product of the profound consequences for an individual categorised with this disorder. This paper argues that in refraining from emphasising uncertainty, NICE risks reifying a controversial category. This is particularly problematical given that the guidelines recommend the identification of individuals "at risk" of raising antisocial children. Although this paper does not argue that NICE is "wrong" in any of its recommendations, more emphasis should have been placed on discussions of the ethical implications of diagnosis and treatment, especially given the multiple uncertainties associated with ASPD. It is proposed that these important issues be examined in more detail in revisions of existing NICE recommendations, and be included in upcoming guidance. This paper thus raises key questions regarding the place and role of ethics within the current and future remit of NICE.

Religion in the face of uncertainty: an uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogg, Michael A; Adelman, Janice R; Blagg, Robert D

2010-02-01

The authors characterize religions as social groups and religiosity as the extent to which a person identifies with a religion, subscribes to its ideology or worldview, and conforms to its normative practices. They argue that religions have attributes that make them well suited to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. According to uncertainty-identity theory, people are motivated to reduce feelings of uncertainty about or reflecting on self; and identification with groups, particularly highly entitative groups, is a very effective way to reduce uncertainty. All groups provide belief systems and normative prescriptions related to everyday life. However, religions also address the nature of existence, invoking sacred entities and associated rituals and ceremonies. They are entitative groups that provide a moral compass and rules for living that pervade a person's life, making them particularly attractive in times of uncertainty. The authors document data supporting their analysis and discuss conditions that transform religiosity into religious zealotry and extremism.

Different perspectives on the use of personal computers for technical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Libby, R.A.; Doherty, A.L.

1986-01-01

Personal computers (PCs) have widespread availability and use in many technical environments. The machines may have initially been justified for use as word processors or for data base management, but many technical applications are being performed and often the computer codes used in these technical analyses have been moved from large mainframe machines. The general feeling in the user community is that the free computer time on these machines justifies moving as many applications as possible from the large computer systems. Many of these PC applications cannot be justified if the total cost of using microcomputers is considered. A Hanford-wide local area network (LAN) is being established which allows individual PCs to be used as terminals to connect to mainframe computers at high data transfer rates (9600 baud). This system allows fast, easy connection to a variety of different computers with a few keystrokes. The LAN eliminates the problem of low-speed communication with mainframe computers and makes operation on the mainframes as simple as operation on the host PC, itself

Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

Science.gov (United States)

Tripp, John S.

1999-01-01

This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 15: Technical uncertainty and project complexity as correlates of information use by US industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists: Results of an exploratory investigation

Science.gov (United States)

Pinelli, Thomas E.; Glassman, Nanci A.; Affelder, Linda O.; Hecht, Laura M.; Kennedy, John M.; Barclay, Rebecca O.

1993-01-01

An exploratory study was conducted that investigated the influence of technical uncertainty and project complexity on information use by U.S. industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists. The study utilized survey research in the form of a self-administered mail questionnaire. U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists on the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) mailing list served as the study population. The adjusted response rate was 67 percent. The survey instrument is appendix C to this report. Statistically significant relationships were found to exist between technical uncertainty, project complexity, and information use. Statistically significant relationships were found to exist between technical uncertainty, project complexity, and the use of federally funded aerospace R&D. The results of this investigation are relevant to researchers investigating information-seeking behavior of aerospace engineers. They are also relevant to R&D managers and policy planners concerned with transferring the results of federally funded aerospace R&D to the U.S. aerospace industry.

Development of default uncertainties for the value/benefit attributes in the regulatory analysis technical evaluation handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallucci, Raymond H.V.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Uncertainties for values/benefits. • Upper bound four times higher than mean. • Distributional histograms. - Abstract: NUREG/BR-0184, Regulatory Analysis Technical Evaluation (RATE) Handbook, was produced in 1997 as an update to the original NUREG/CR-3568, A Handbook for Value-Impact Assessment (1983). Both documents, especially the later RATE Handbook, have been used extensively by the USNRC and its contractors not only for regulatory analyses to support backfit considerations but also for similar applications, such as Severe Accident Management Alternative (SAMA) analyses as part of license renewals. While both provided high-level guidance on the performance of uncertainty analyses for the various value/benefit attributes, detailed quantification was not of prime interest at the times of the Handbooks’ development, defaulting only to best estimates with low and high bounds on these attributes. As the USNRC examines the possibility of updating the RATE Handbook, renewed interest in a more quantitative approach to uncertainty analyses for the attributes has surfaced. As the result of an effort to enhance the RATE Handbook to permit at least default uncertainty analyses for the value/benefit attributes, it has proven feasible to assign default uncertainties in terms of 95th %ile upper bounds (and absolute lower bounds) on the five dominant value/benefit attributes, and their sum, when performing a regulatory analysis via the RATE Handbook. Appropriate default lower bounds of zero (no value/benefit) and an upper bound (95th %ile) that is four times higher than the mean (for individual value/benefit attributes) or three times higher (for their summation) can be recommended. Distributions in the form of histograms on the summed value/benefit attributes are also provided which could be combined, after appropriate scaling and most likely via simulation, with their counterpart(s) from the impact/cost analysis to yield a final distribution on the net

The impact of intolerance of uncertainty, worry and irritability on quality of life in persons with epilepsy: irritability as mediator.

Science.gov (United States)

Barahmand, Usha; Haji, Afsar

2014-10-01

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder afflicting many people in the world. The impact of epilepsy on the quality of life of those afflicted with epilepsy is greater than the limitations imposed by the seizures alone. Among the several psychological disorders found to be comorbid with epilepsy are anxiety and depression, both of which impair quality of life in epilepsy. Some studies have reported that the anxiety seen in epilepsy is characterized by worry while the depression seen is characterized by irritability. A concept common to both anxiety and depression is intolerance of uncertainty. Therefore, the study explores the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry and irritability and their association to quality of life in epilepsy. A descriptive-correlational research method was used and the research sample comprised 60 consecutive referrals seeking outpatient neurological services for epilepsy at Alavi Hospital in Ardebil. Data were collected by administering the Penn State Worry Questionnaire, Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale, Irritability Questionnaire and Quality of Life in Epilepsy Inventory. Data were analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficients and multivariate regression analysis. Mediation and moderation analyses were conducted. Findings indicated that intolerance of uncertainty, worry and irritability have unique significant effects on quality of life. The implications are that interventions aimed at improving the quality of life of patients with epilepsy should address their feelings of uncertainty, worry and irritability. Furthermore, irritability seems to mediate the impact of both intolerance of uncertainty and worry on quality of life of individuals with epilepsy. No significant moderation effects were noted. Results underscore the important role of irritability in the quality of life of persons with epilepsy. The findings are discussed with reference to the possibility of particular predisposing temperaments and add credence to

"The more you know, the more you realise it is really challenging to do": Tensions and uncertainties in person-centred support for people with long-term conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Entwistle, Vikki A; Cribb, Alan; Watt, Ian S; Skea, Zoë C; Owens, John; Morgan, Heather M; Christmas, Simon

2018-03-30

To identify and examine tensions and uncertainties in person-centred approaches to self-management support - approaches that take patients seriously as moral agents and orient support to enable them to live (and die) well on their own terms. Interviews with 26 UK clinicians about working with people with diabetes or Parkinson's disease, conducted within a broader interdisciplinary project on self-management support. The analysis reported here was informed by philosophical reasoning and discussions with stakeholders. Person-centred approaches require clinicians to balance tensions between the many things that can matter in life, and their own and each patient's perspectives on these. Clinicians must ensure that their supportive efforts do not inadvertently disempower people. When attending to someone's particular circumstances and perspectives, they sometimes face intractable uncertainties, including about what is most important to the person and what, realistically, the person can or could do and achieve. The kinds of professional judgement that person-centred working necessitates are not always acknowledged and supported. Practical and ethical tensions are inherent in person-centred support and need to be better understood and addressed. Professional development and service improvement initiatives should recognise these tensions and uncertainties and support clinicians to navigate them well. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relational uncertainty in service dyads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreye, Melanie

2017-01-01

in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....

A Review of the New European Technical Recommendations for Monitoring Individuals Occupationally Exposed to External Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dijk, J.W.E. van; Alves, J.G.; Ambrosi, P.; Bartlett, D.T.; Currivan, L.; Fantuzzi, E.; Kamenopoulou, V.

2013-01-01

This paper reviews the revised Technical Recommendations for Monitoring Individuals Occupationally Exposed to External Radiation as issued by the European Commission as Radiation Protection 160. These recommendations are aimed at all stakeholders in radiation protection dosimetry with an emphasis in the responsible technical staff of approved dosimetry services. This paper briefly touches each Chapter and ends with a more in depth section on the uncertainty evaluation of dose measurements. -- Highlights: ► Recommendations on all aspects of running an approved dosimetry service. ► Radiation protection framework. ► Metrology of personal dosimeters. ► QC and QA of individual monitoring

A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campos, E [Argonne National Laboratory; Sisterson, DL [Argonne National Laboratory

2015-10-01

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily-accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed.

Treatment of the uncertainty in the engineering calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parra, Sandra P; Ramirez Liliana M

1996-01-01

The article has for objective to extend the use of non-deterministic methods to different areas of the petroleum engineering and constitute the result of the summary and analysis of diverse technical that have been developed for the handling of the uncertainty. The work analyzes the stochastic methods; were considered diverse methods of the uncertainty evaluation and Monte Carlo method. They are kept in technical mind of sensibility analysis and the implications are illustrated that can bring don't use of the stochastic methods in taking of decisions

A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report: Updated in 2016

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2017-01-15

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. ARM currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through several sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, ARM relies on Instrument Mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. This report is a continuation of the work presented by Campos and Sisterson (2015) and provides additional uncertainty information from instruments not available in their report. As before, a total measurement uncertainty has been calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). This study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. As before, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available to the ARM community through the ARM Instrument Mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. This study continues the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty as: (1) identifying how the uncertainty of individual ARM measurements is currently expressed, (2) identifying a consistent approach to measurement uncertainty, and then (3) reclassifying ARM instrument measurement uncertainties in a common framework.

Personal Conflict Impairs Performance on an Unrelated Self-Control Task: Lingering Costs of Uncertainty and Conflict.

Science.gov (United States)

Alquist, Jessica L; Baumeister, Roy F; McGregor, Ian; Core, Tammy J; Benjamin, Ilil; Tice, Dianne M

2018-01-01

People have the ability to make important choices in their lives, but deliberating about these choices can have costs. The present study was designed to test the hypothesis that writing about conflicted personal goals and values (conflict condition) would impair self-control on an unrelated subsequent task as compared to writing about clear personal goals and values (clarity condition). Personal conflict activates the behavioral inhibition system (BIS; Hirsh, Mar, & Peterson, 2012), which may make it harder for participants to successfully execute self-control. In this large ( N =337), pre-registered study participants in the conflict condition performed worse on anagrams than participants in the clarity condition, and the effect of condition on anagram performance was mediated by a subjective uncertainty measure of BIS activation. This suggests that BIS activation leads to poor self-control. Moreover, given that conflict is inherent in the exercise of self-control, results point to BIS activation as a mechanism for why initial acts of self-control impair self-control on subsequent, unrelated tasks.

Revision of the European Ecolabel Criteria for Personal, Notebook and Tablet Computers TECHNICAL REPORT Summary of the final criteria proposals

OpenAIRE

DODD NICHOLAS; VIDAL ABARCA GARRIDO CANDELA; WOLF Oliver; GRAULICH Kathrin; BUNKE Dirk; GROSS Rita; LIU Ran; MANHART Andreas; PRAKASH Siddharth

2015-01-01

This technical report provide the background information for the revision of the EU Ecolabel criteria for Personal and Notebook Computers. The study has been carried out by the Joint Research Centre with technical support from the Oeko-Institut. The work has been developed for the European Commission's Directorate General for the Environment. The main purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the technical background and rationale for each criterion proposal. This document is compl...

Impact of Personal Characteristics and Technical Factors on Quantification of Sodium 18F-Fluoride Uptake in Human Arteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomberg, Björn Alexander; Thomassen, Anders; de Jong, Pim A

2015-01-01

Sodium (18)F-fluoride ((18)F-NaF) PET/CT imaging is a promising imaging technique for assessment of atherosclerosis, but is hampered by a lack of validated quantification protocols. Both personal characteristics and technical factors can affect quantification of arterial (18)F-NaF uptake....... This study investigated if blood activity, renal function, injected dose, circulating time, and PET/CT system affect quantification of arterial (18)F-NaF uptake. METHODS: Eighty-nine healthy subjects were prospectively examined by (18)F-NaF PET/CT imaging. Arterial (18)F-NaF uptake was quantified...... assessed the effect of personal characteristics and technical factors on quantification of arterial (18)F-NaF uptake. RESULTS: NaFmax and TBRmax/mean were dependent on blood activity (β = .34 to .44, P

Nuclear Data Uncertainties in 2004: A Perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Interest in nuclear data uncertainties is growing robustly after having languished for several years. Renewed attention to this topic is being motivated by the practical need for assuring that nuclear systems will be safe, reliable, and cost effective, according to the individual requirements of each specific nuclear technology. Furthermore, applications are emerging in certain areas of basic nuclear science, e.g., in astrophysics, where, until recently, attention has focused mainly on understanding basic concepts and physics principles rather than on dealing with detailed quantitative information. The availability of fast computers and the concurrent development of sophisticated software enable nuclear data uncertainty information to be used more effectively than ever before. For example, data uncertainties and associated methodologies play useful roles in advanced data measurement, analysis, and evaluation procedures. Unfortunately, the current inventory of requisite uncertainty information is rather limited when measured against these evolving demands. Consequently, there is a real need to generate more comprehensive and reasonable nuclear data uncertainty information, and to make this available relatively soon in suitable form for use in the computer codes employed for nuclear analyses and the development of advanced nuclear energy systems. This conference contribution discusses several conceptual and technical issues that need to be addressed in meeting this demand during the next few years. The role of data uncertainties in several areas of nuclear science will also be mentioned briefly. Finally, the opportunities that ultimately will be afforded by the availability of more extensive and reasonable uncertainty information, and some technical challenges to master, will also be explored in this paper

Tolerance for uncertainty in elderly people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KHRYSTYNA KACHMARYK

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study. The aim of the paper is a comparison of tolerance to uncertainty in two groups of elderly: the students of the University of the Third Age (UTA and older people who are not enrolled but help to educate grandchildren. A relation to uncertainty was shown to influence on decision making strategy of elderly that indicates on importance of the researches. Methods. To obtain the objectives of the paper the following methods were used: 1 Personal change readiness survey (PCRS adapted by Nickolay Bazhanov and Galina Bardiyer; 2 Tolerance Ambiguity Scale (TAS adapted by Galina Soldatova; 3 Freiburg personality inventory (FPI and 4 The questionnaire of self-relation by Vladimir Stolin and Sergej Panteleev. 40 socially involved elderly people were investigated according the above methods, 20 from UTA and 20 who are not studied and served as control group. Results. It was shown that relations of tolerance to uncertainty in the study group of students of the University of the Third Age substantially differ from relations of tolerance to uncertainty in group of older people who do not learn. The majority of students of the University of the Third Age have an inherent low tolerance for uncertainty, which is associated with an increase in expression personality traits and characteristics in self-relation. The group of the elderly who are not enrolled increasingly shows tolerance of uncertainty, focusing on the social and trusting relationship to meet the needs of communication, and the ability to manage their own emotions and desires than a group of Third Age university students. Conclusions. The results of experimental research of the third age university student’s peculiarities of the tolerance to uncertainty were outlined. It was found that decision making in the ambiguity situations concerning social interaction is well developed in elderly who do not study. The students of the University of Third Age have greater needs in

Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durbin, N.E. [MPD Consulting Group, Kirkland, WA (United States); Lekberg, A. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Melber, B.D. [Melber Consulting, Seattle WA (United States)

2001-12-01

When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals.

Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durbin, N.E.; Lekberg, A.; Melber, B.D.

2001-12-01

When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals

Uncertainty dimensions of information behaviour in a group based problem solving context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hyldegård, Jette

2009-01-01

This paper presents a study of uncertainty dimensions of information behaviour in a group based problem solving context. After a presentation of the cognitive uncertainty dimension underlying Kuhlthau's ISP-model, uncertainty factors associated with personality, the work task situation and social...... members' experiences of uncertainty differ from the individual information seeker in Kuhlthau's ISP-model, and how this experience may be related to personal, work task and social factors. A number of methods have been employed to collect data on each group member during the assignment process......: a demographic survey, a personality test, 3 process surveys, 3 diaries and 3 interviews. It was found that group members' experiences of uncertainty did not correspond with the ISP-model in that other factors beyond the mere information searching process seemed to intermingle with the complex process...

Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

Science.gov (United States)

Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

Technical feasibility of personalized articulating knee joint distraction for treatment of tibiofemoral osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Struik, T; Jaspers, J E N; Besselink, N J; van Roermund, P M; Plomp, S; Rudert, M J; Lafeber, F P J G; Mastbergen, S C

2017-11-01

Knee osteoarthritis is a highly prevalent degenerative joint disorder characterized by joint tissue damage and pain. Knee joint distraction has been introduced as a joint preserving surgical procedure to postpone knee arthroplasty. An often used standard externally fixation device for distraction poses a burden to patients due to the absence of joint flexion during the 6weeks treatment. Therefore, a personalized articulating distraction device was developed. The aim of this study was to test technical feasibility of this device. Based on an often applied rigid device, using equal bone pin positions and connectors, a hinge mechanism was developed consisting of a cam-following system for reproducing the complex joint-specific knee kinematics. In support, a device was developed for capturing the joint-specific sagittal plane articulation. The obtained kinematic data were translated into joint-specific cam shapes that were installed bilaterally in the hinge mechanism of the distraction device, as such providing personalized knee motion. Distraction of 5mm was performed within a range of motion of 30deg. joint flexion. Pre-clinical evaluation of the working principle was performed on human cadaveric legs and system stiffness characteristics were biomechanically evaluated. The desired range of motion was obtained and distraction was maintained under physiologically representative loading. Moreover, the joint-specific approach demonstrated tolerance of deviations from anatomical and alignment origin during initial placement of the developed distraction device. Articulation during knee distraction is considered technically feasible and has potential to decrease burden and improve acceptance of distraction therapy. Testing of clinical feasibility is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Summary from the epistemic uncertainty workshop: consensus amid diversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferson, Scott; Joslyn, Cliff A.; Helton, Jon C.; Oberkampf, William L.; Sentz, Kari

2004-01-01

The 'Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop' sponsored by Sandia National Laboratories was held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on 6-7 August 2002. The workshop was organized around a set of Challenge Problems involving both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty that the workshop participants were invited to solve and discuss. This concluding article in a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety based on the workshop discusses the intent of the Challenge Problems, summarizes some discussions from the workshop, and provides a technical comparison among the papers in this special issue. The Challenge Problems were computationally simple models that were intended as vehicles for the illustration and comparison of conceptual and numerical techniques for use in analyses that involve: (i) epistemic uncertainty, (ii) aggregation of multiple characterizations of epistemic uncertainty, (iii) combination of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, and (iv) models with repeated parameters. There was considerable diversity of opinion at the workshop about both methods and fundamental issues, and yet substantial consensus about what the answers to the problems were, and even about how each of the four issues should be addressed. Among the technical approaches advanced were probability theory, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, random sets, sets of probability measures, imprecise coherent probabilities, coherent lower previsions, probability boxes, possibility theory, fuzzy sets, joint distribution tableaux, polynomial chaos expansions, and info-gap models. Although some participants maintained that a purely probabilistic approach is fully capable of accounting for all forms of uncertainty, most agreed that the treatment of epistemic uncertainty introduces important considerations and that the issues underlying the Challenge Problems are legitimate and significant. Topics identified as meriting additional research include elicitation of uncertainty representations, aggregation of

The spectre of uncertainty in communicating technological risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broesius, Michael T. [Univ. of California, Livermore, CA (United States)

1993-12-01

The literature does not clearly describe the potential moral and ethical conflicts that can exist between technology sponsors and the technical communicators whose job it is to present potentially risky technology to the non-technical people most likely to be imperiled by such risk. Equally important, the literature does not address the issue of uncertainty -- not the uncertainty likely to be experienced by the community at risk, but the unreliable processes and methodologies used by technology sponsors to define, quantify, and develop strategies to mitigate technological risks. In this paper, the author goes beyond a description of risk communication, the nature of the generally predictable interaction between technology advocates and non-technically trained individuals, and current trends in the field. Although that kind of information is critical to the success of any risk communication activity, and he has included it when necessary to provide background and perspective, without knowing how and why risk assessment is done, it has limited practical applicability outside the sterile, value-free vacuum in which it is usually framed. Technical communicators, particularly those responsible for communicating potential technological risk, must also understand the social, political, economic, statistical, and ethical issues they will invariably encounter.

Programs of Study as a State Policy Mandate: A Longitudinal Study of the South Carolina Personal Pathways to Success Initiative. Technical Appendix B

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Cathy; Drew, Sam F.; Withington, Cairen; Griffith, Cathy; Swiger, Caroline M.; Mobley, Catherine; Sharp, Julia L.; Stringfield, Samuel C.; Stipanovic, Natalie; Daugherty, Lindsay

2013-01-01

This Technical Appendix discusses how researchers from the National Research Center for Career and Technical Education (NRCCTE) conducted the five-year longitudinal study of South Carolina's Personal Pathway to Success initiative, which was authorized by the state's Education and Economic Development Act (EEDA) in 2005, and how they defined and…

Uncertainties in Transport Project Evaluation: Editorial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Nielsen, Otto Anker

2015-01-01

University of Denmark, September 2013. The conference was held under the auspices of the project ‘Uncertainties in transport project evaluation’ (UNITE) which is a research project (2009-2014) financed by the Danish Strategic Research Agency. UNITE was coordinated by the Department of Transport......This following special issue of the European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research (EJTIR) containing five scientific papers is the result of an open call for papers at the 1st International Conference on Uncertainties in Transport Project Evaluation that took place at the Technical...

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.

2008-01-01

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties

Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bassett, G. [Illinois Univ., Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Economics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Jenkins-Smith, H. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Political Science]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

1992-10-01

This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by ``a neutral source`` (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes.

Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bassett, G. (Illinois Univ., Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of Economics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)); Jenkins-Smith, H. (New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Political Science Argonne National Lab., IL (United States))

1992-10-01

This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by a neutral source'' (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes.

Modeling the effects of uncertainty on fear of nuclear waste: Differences among science, business and environmental group members

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bassett, G.; Jenkins-Smith, H.

1992-10-01

This paper analyzes the relationships between the subjective assessment of riskiness of managing nuclear waste and the level of certainty regarding the assessment. Uncertainty can be operationalized in two ways. The direct approach asks a person to assess their own subjective beliefs about a potential hazard. The indirect approach assesses how readily an individual will change his or her beliefs when confronted with new information that conflicts with prior beliefs. This paper tests for the relationships between these two distinct operationalizations of uncertainty and overall assessments of the risks posed by radioactive wastes. First we analyze the relationships between stated levels of uncertainty about the effects of radiation on the level of perceived risks from radioactive wastes. Second, we assess the linkage between willingness to alter prior beliefs about the risks of radioactive wastes in response to new information provided by ''a neutral source'' (or responsiveness of beliefs) and uncertainty. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we test hypotheses that (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks, and (b) greater responsiveness of beliefs to new information is associated with greater uncertainty. The import of these hypotheses concerns the dynamics of uncertainty in controversial technical policy issues, wherein perceived risks are a primary ingredient in policy positions taken by participants in policy disputes

Double-Loop Health Technology: Enabling Socio-technical Design of Personal Health Technology in Clinical Practice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bardram, Jakob Eyvind; Frost, Mads

2018-01-01

present a case of designing personal health technology for mental health, which is integrated into hospital-based treatment. This system helps patients to manage their disease by tracking and correlation behavior and disease progression and provide feedback to them, while also deployed as part......Personal health technology is rapidly emerging as a response to the challenges associated with significant increase in chronic noncommunicable diseases. The overall design paradigm behind most of these applications is to manually and automatically sample data from sensors and smartphones and use...... this to provide patients with an awareness of their illness and give recommendation for treatment, care, and healthy living. Few of these systems are, however, designed to be part of a complex socio-technical care and treatment processes in existing healthcare systems and clinical pathways. In this chapter, we...

A rigorous treatment of uncertainty quantification for Silicon damage metrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffin, P.

2016-01-01

These report summaries the contributions made by Sandia National Laboratories in support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear Data Section (NDS) Technical Meeting (TM) on Nuclear Reaction Data and Uncertainties for Radiation Damage. This work focused on a rigorous treatment of the uncertainties affecting the characterization of the displacement damage seen in silicon semiconductors. (author)

Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Dittes

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is

Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Schoppa, Lukas; Straub, Daniel

2018-04-01

Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble) is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is robust to moderate changes in

The Marketing Mix Decision Under Uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Harsharanjeet S. Jagpal; Ivan E. Brick

1982-01-01

This paper develops a marketing mix model under uncertainty using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) valuation framework. The model is general because it treats price, advertising and personal selling simultaneously, and allows for general patterns of uncertainty. Because the manager often lacks precise quantitative information about the sales response function, the analysis focuses on the qualitative properties of the model. The methodology of comparative statics is used to determine how...

Optimal processing pathway selection for microalgae-based biorefinery under uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rizwan, Muhammad; Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay H.

2015-01-01

We propose a systematic framework for the selection of optimal processing pathways for a microalgaebased biorefinery under techno-economic uncertainty. The proposed framework promotes robust decision making by taking into account the uncertainties that arise due to inconsistencies among...... and shortage in the available technical information. A stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming (sMINLP) problem is formulated for determining the optimal biorefinery configurations based on a superstructure model where parameter uncertainties are modeled and included as sampled scenarios. The solution...... the accounting of uncertainty are compared with respect to different objectives. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

INTERCOMPARISON ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE QUANTITY PERSONAL DOSE EQUIVALENT HP(10) IN PHOTON FIELDS. LINEARITY DEPENDENCE, LOWER LIMIT OF DETECTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN MEASUREMENT OF DOSIMETRY SYSTEMS OF INDIVIDUAL MONITORING SERVICES IN GABON AND GHANA.

Science.gov (United States)

Ondo Meye, P; Schandorf, C; Amoako, J K; Manteaw, P O; Amoatey, E A; Adjei, D N

2017-12-01

An inter-comparison study was conducted to assess the capability of dosimetry systems of individual monitoring services (IMSs) in Gabon and Ghana to measure personal dose equivalent Hp(10) in photon fields. The performance indicators assessed were the lower limit of detection, linearity and uncertainty in measurement. Monthly and quarterly recording levels were proposed with corresponding values of 0.08 and 0.025 mSv, and 0.05 and 0.15 mSv for the TLD and OSL systems, respectively. The linearity dependence of the dosimetry systems was performed following the requirement given in the Standard IEC 62387 of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The results obtained for the two systems were satisfactory. The procedure followed for the uncertainty assessment is the one given in the IEC technical report TR62461. The maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, expressed in terms of Hp(10), for the TL dosimetry system Harshaw 6600, are 44. 35% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 36.33% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. For the OSL dosimetry system microStar, the maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, are 52.17% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 37.43% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. These results are in good agreement with the requirements for accuracy of the International Commission on Radiological protection. When expressing the uncertainties in terms of response, comparison with the IAEA requirements for overall accuracy showed that the uncertainty results were also acceptable. The values of Hp(10) directly measured by the two dosimetry systems showed a significant underestimation for the Harshaw 6600 system, and a slight overestimation for the microStar system. After correction for linearity of the measured doses, the two dosimetry systems gave better and comparable results. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

International survey for good practices in forecasting uncertainty assessment and communication

Science.gov (United States)

Berthet, Lionel; Piotte, Olivier

2014-05-01

Achieving technically sound flood forecasts is a crucial objective for forecasters but remains of poor use if the users do not understand properly their significance and do not use it properly in decision making. One usual way to precise the forecasts limitations is to communicate some information about their uncertainty. Uncertainty assessment and communication to stakeholders are thus important issues for operational flood forecasting services (FFS) but remain open fields for research. French FFS wants to publish graphical streamflow and level forecasts along with uncertainty assessment in near future on its website (available to the greater public). In order to choose the technical options best adapted to its operational context, it carried out a survey among more than 15 fellow institutions. Most of these are providing forecasts and warnings to civil protection officers while some were mostly working for hydroelectricity suppliers. A questionnaire has been prepared in order to standardize the analysis of the practices of the surveyed institutions. The survey was conducted by gathering information from technical reports or from the scientific literature, as well as 'interviews' driven by phone, email discussions or meetings. The questionnaire helped in the exploration of practices in uncertainty assessment, evaluation and communication. Attention was paid to the particular context within which every insitution works, in the analysis drawn from raw results. Results show that most services interviewed assess their forecasts uncertainty. However, practices can differ significantly from a country to another. Popular techniques are ensemble approaches. They allow to take into account several uncertainty sources. Statistical past forecasts analysis (such as the quantile regressions) are also commonly used. Contrary to what was expected, only few services emphasize the role of the forecaster (subjective assessment). Similar contrasts can be observed in uncertainty

Technical Network

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

In order to optimize the management of the Technical Network (TN), to ease the understanding and purpose of devices connected to the TN, and to improve security incident handling, the Technical Network Administrators and the CNIC WG have asked IT/CS to verify the "description" and "tag" fields of devices connected to the TN. Therefore, persons responsible for systems connected to the TN will receive email notifications from IT/CS asking them to add the corresponding information in the network database. Thank you very much for your cooperation. The Technical Network Administrators & the CNIC WG

Uncertainty evaluation methods for waste package performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Y.T.; Nair, P.K.; Journel, A.G.; Abramson, L.R.

1991-01-01

This report identifies and investigates methodologies to deal with uncertainties in assessing high-level nuclear waste package performance. Four uncertainty evaluation methods (probability-distribution approach, bounding approach, expert judgment, and sensitivity analysis) are suggested as the elements of a methodology that, without either diminishing or enhancing the input uncertainties, can evaluate performance uncertainty. Such a methodology can also help identify critical inputs as a guide to reducing uncertainty so as to provide reasonable assurance that the risk objectives are met. This report examines the current qualitative waste containment regulation and shows how, in conjunction with the identified uncertainty evaluation methodology, a framework for a quantitative probability-based rule can be developed that takes account of the uncertainties. Current US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulation requires that the waste packages provide ''substantially complete containment'' (SCC) during the containment period. The term ''SCC'' is ambiguous and subject to interpretation. This report, together with an accompanying report that describes the technical considerations that must be addressed to satisfy high-level waste containment requirements, provides a basis for a third report to develop recommendations for regulatory uncertainty reduction in the ''containment''requirement of 10 CFR Part 60. 25 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Evaluation of uncertainties in the calibration of radiation personal monitor with Cesium-137 source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirapalheta, Tatiane; Alexandre, Anderson; Costa, Camila; Batista, Gilmar; Paulino, Thyago; Albuquerque, Marcos; Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

2016-01-01

This work shows the entire calibration process of an individual monitor, focusing on radiation protection, in health, correlating these measures associated uncertainties. The results show an expanded uncertainty of 5.81% for dose rate measurements and an expanded uncertainty of 5.61% for integrated dose measurements, these uncertainties have been evaluated the type A and type B with its components. (author)

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

1993-04-01

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

Uncertainties in workplace external dosimetry - An analytical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambrosi, P.

2006-01-01

The uncertainties associated with external dosimetry measurements at workplaces depend on the type of dosemeter used together with its performance characteristics and the information available on the measurement conditions. Performance characteristics were determined in the course of a type test and information about the measurement conditions can either be general, e.g. 'research' and 'medicine', or specific, e.g. 'X-ray testing equipment for aluminium wheel rims'. This paper explains an analytical approach to determine the measurement uncertainty. It is based on the Draft IEC Technical Report IEC 62461 Radiation Protection Instrumentation - Determination of Uncertainty in Measurement. Both this paper and the report cannot eliminate the fact that the determination of the uncertainty requires a larger effort than performing the measurement itself. As a counterbalance, the process of determining the uncertainty results not only in a numerical value of the uncertainty but also produces the best estimate of the quantity to be measured, which may differ from the indication of the instrument. Thus it also improves the result of the measurement. (authors)

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Communicating and dealing with uncertainty in general practice: the association with neuroticism.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonius Schneider

Full Text Available Diagnostic reasoning in primary care setting where presented problems and patients are mostly unselected appears as a complex process. The aim was to develop a questionnaire to describe how general practitioners (GPs deal with uncertainty to gain more insight into the decisional process. The association of personality traits with medical decision making was investigated additionally.Raw items were identified by literature research and focus group. Items were improved by interviewing ten GPs with thinking-aloud-method. A personal case vignette related to a complex and uncertainty situation was introduced. The final questionnaire was administered to 228 GPs in Germany. Factorial validity was calculated with explorative and confirmatory factor analysis. The results of the Communicating and Dealing with Uncertainty (CoDU-questionnaire were compared with the scales of the 'Physician Reaction to Uncertainty' (PRU questionnaire and with the personality traits which were determined with the Big Five Inventory (BFI-K.The items could be assigned to four scales with varying internal consistency, namely 'communicating uncertainty' (Cronbach alpha 0.79, 'diagnostic action' (0.60, 'intuition' (0.39 and 'extended social anamnesis' (0.69. Neuroticism was positively associated with all PRU scales 'anxiety due to uncertainty' (Pearson correlation 0.487, 'concerns about bad outcomes' (0.488, 'reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients' (0.287, 'reluctance to disclose mistakes to physicians' (0.212 and negatively associated with the CoDU scale 'communicating uncertainty' (-0.242 (p<0.01 for all. 'Extraversion' (0.146; p<0.05, 'agreeableness' (0.145, p<0.05, 'conscientiousness' (0.168, p<0.05 and 'openness to experience' (0.186, p<0.01 were significantly positively associated with 'communicating uncertainty'. 'Extraversion' (0.162, 'consciousness' (0.158 and 'openness to experience' (0.155 were associated with 'extended social anamnesis' (p<0.05.The

Technical Network

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

In order to optimise the management of the Technical Network (TN), to facilitate understanding of the purpose of devices connected to the TN and to improve security incident handling, the Technical Network Administrators and the CNIC WG have asked IT/CS to verify the "description" and "tag" fields of devices connected to the TN. Therefore, persons responsible for systems connected to the TN will receive e-mails from IT/CS asking them to add the corresponding information in the network database at "network-cern-ch". Thank you very much for your cooperation. The Technical Network Administrators & the CNIC WG

A Survey of Clinical Uncertainty from the Paediatric Basic Specialist Trainee Perspective

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O’Neill, MB

2017-06-01

This study was undertaken to evaluate uncertainty from the Basic Specialist Trainee perspective. The survey of trainees explored 1) factors in decision making, 2) the personal impact of uncertainty, 3) the responses to both clinical errors and challenges to their decision making and 4) the potential strategies to address uncertainty. Forty-one (93%) of trainees surveyed responded. Important factors in decision making were clinical knowledge and senior colleague’s opinion. Sixty percent experienced significant anxiety post call as a consequence of their uncertainty. When errors are made by colleagues, the trainee’s response is acceptance (52.5%), and sympathy (32%).Trainees are strongly influenced by the opinions of senior colleagues often changing their opinions having made confident decisions. Solutions to address uncertainty include enhanced knowledge translation, and to a lesser extent, enhanced personal awareness and resilience awareness. To enhance the training experience for BST and lessen the uncertainty experienced these strategies need to be enacted within the training milieu.

Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

2005-01-01

Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

Simplified quantitative treatment of uncertainty and interindividual variability in health risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, K.T.

1993-01-01

A distinction between uncertainty (or the extent of lack of knowledge) and interindividual variability (or the extent of person-to-person heterogeneity) regarding the values of input variates must be maintained if a quantitative characterization of uncertainty in population risk or in individual risk is sought. Here, some practical methods are presented that should facilitate implementation of the analytic framework for uncertainty and variability proposed by Bogen and Spear. (1,2) Two types of methodology are discussed: one that facilitates the distinction between uncertainty and variability per se, and another that may be used to simplify quantitative analysis of distributed inputs representing either uncertainty or variability. A simple and a complex form for modeled increased risk are presented and then used to illustrate methods facilitating the distinction between uncertainty and variability in reference to characterization of both population and individual risk. Finally, a simple form of discrete probability calculus is proposed as an easily implemented, practical altemative to Monte-Carlo based procedures to quantitative integration of uncertainty and variability in risk assessment

Estimate of uncertainties correlated and no correlated associated to performance tests of activity meters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, C.H.S.; Teixeira, G.J.; Peixoto, J.G.P.

2014-01-01

Activimeters should undergo performance for verifying the functionality tests as technical recommendations. This study estimated the associated expanded uncertainties uncorrelated to the results conducted on three instruments, two detectors with ionization chamber and one with Geiger Mueller tubes. For this we used a standard reference source and screened certified by the National Institute of Technology and Standardization. The methodology of this research was based on the protocols listed in the technical document of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Later two quantities were correlated presenting real correlation and improving expanded uncertainty 3.7%. (author)

Study on uncertainty evaluation system for the safety evaluation of interim spent fuel storage facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Myung Hyeon; Shin, Myeong Won; Rhy, Seok Jin; Cho, Dong Keon; Park, Dong Hwan [Kyunghee Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cheong, Beom Jin [Minstry of Science and Technology, Gwacheon (Korea, Republic of)

1998-03-15

The main objective os to develop a technical standards for the facility operation of the interm, spent fuel storage facility and to develop a draft for the technical criteria to be legislated. The another objective os to define a uncertainty evaluation system for burn up credit application in criticality analysis and to investigate an applicability of this topic for future regulatory activity. Investigate a status of art for the operational criteria of spent fuel interm wet storage. Collect relevant laws, decree, notices and standards related to the operation of storage facility and study on the legislation system. Develop a draft of technical standards and criteria to be legislated. Define an evaluation system for the uncertainty analysis and study on the status of art in the field of criticality safety analysis. Develop an uncertainty evaluation system in criticality analysis with burnup credit and investigate an applicability as well as its benefits of this policy.

Synthesis of Optimal Processing Pathway for Microalgae-based Biorefinery under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rizwan, Muhammad; Lee, Jay H.; Gani, Rafiqul

2015-01-01

decision making, we propose a systematic framework for the synthesis and optimal design of microalgae-based processing network under uncertainty. By incorporating major uncertainties into the biorefinery superstructure model we developed previously, a stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming (s......The research in the field of microalgae-based biofuels and chemicals is in early phase of the development, and therefore a wide range of uncertainties exist due to inconsistencies among and shortage of technical information. In order to handle and address these uncertainties to ensure robust......MINLP) problem is formulated for determining the optimal biorefinery structure under given parameter uncertainties modelled as sampled scenarios. The solution to the sMINLP problem determines the optimal decisions with respect to processing technologies, material flows, and product portfolio in the presence...

Development of TRITN : In-house technical information network of Technical Research Institute in The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebara, Hisao

With the increase in information amount, progress in information network, diversified technology and change in in-house organization the Technical Research Institute has necessitated to shift the conventional technical database processing by use of personal computers into new system promised for future use. It enables to; provide classification system which meets the needs of the institute; execute distributed processing using workstations; make the low cost processing using commercial softwares; make networks using LAN, WAN personal computer communication, and provide primary materials (text data) on facsimiles using optical disks. Such features are those of technical information database system "TRITN" which is available to any persons and at any time. This paper describes how TRITN was developed and the system outline.

Uncertainties in the geological disposal for high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiaodong; Wang Changxuan

2008-01-01

Geological disposal, referring to the disposal of high-level solid radioactive waste in a facility located underground in a stable geological formation, was considered the most favourable methods to provide long term isolation of the radionuclides in the waste from the biosphere, and was adopted by IAEA and the developed nations with nuclear facilities. Over 50 years studies have been proved the technical feasibility of geological disposal for radioactive waste. However, there are many subjective and objective uncertainties on development, operation and closure of a geological disposal facility. For providing flexibility in responding to new technical information, advances in waste management and materials technologies, and in enabling social, economic and political aspects to be addressed, it is necessary to evaluate the uncertainties for all the R and D steps of a geological disposal program. (authors)

USACM Thematic Workshop On Uncertainty Quantification And Data-Driven Modeling.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stewart, James R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

The USACM Thematic Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification and Data-Driven Modeling was held on March 23-24, 2017, in Austin, TX. The organizers of the technical program were James R. Stewart of Sandia National Laboratories and Krishna Garikipati of University of Michigan. The administrative organizer was Ruth Hengst, who serves as Program Coordinator for the USACM. The organization of this workshop was coordinated through the USACM Technical Thrust Area on Uncertainty Quantification and Probabilistic Analysis. The workshop website (http://uqpm2017.usacm.org) includes the presentation agenda as well as links to several of the presentation slides (permission to access the presentations was granted by each of those speakers, respectively). Herein, this final report contains the complete workshop program that includes the presentation agenda, the presentation abstracts, and the list of posters.

Programs of Study as a State Policy Mandate: A Longitudinal Study of the South Carolina Personal Pathways to Success Initiative. Final Technical Report: Major Findings and Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Cathy; Drew, Sam F.; Withington, Cairen; Griffith, Cathy; Swiger, Caroline M.; Mobley, Catherine; Sharp, Julia L.; Stringfield, Samuel C.; Stipanovic, Natalie; Daugherty, Lindsay

2013-01-01

This is the final technical report from the National Research Center for Career and Technical Education's (NRCCTE's) five-year longitudinal study of South Carolina's Personal Pathway to Success initiative, which was authorized by the state's Education and Economic Development Act (EEDA) in 2005. NRCCTE-affiliated researchers at the National…

Sensitivity Analysis of Personal Exposure Assessment Using a Computer Simulated Person

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brohus, Henrik; Jensen, H. K.

2009-01-01

The paper considers uncertainties related to personal exposure assessment using a computer simulated person. CFD is used to simulate a uniform flow field around a human being to determine the personal exposure to a contaminant source. For various vertical locations of a point contaminant source...... three additional factors are varied, namely the velocity, details of the computer simulated person, and the CFD model of the wind channel. The personal exposure is found to be highly dependent on the relative source location. Variation in the range of two orders of magnitude is found. The exposure...

Towards a different attitude to uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guy Pe'er

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES at the global level.

Awareness Levels of Students of the Faculty of Technical Education of Suleyman Demirel University about Personality Characteristics and Interpersonal Relationships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şengül BÜYÜKBOYACI

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the effect of personality characteristics of the students at the Faculty of Technical Education, Süleyman Demirel University on their awareness levels of interpersonal relationships. This study was conducted with 63 females (%57,28, 47 males (42,72 and totally 110 students at the Faculty of Technical Education, Süleyman Demirel University. Data gathered in accordance with the aims of the study, statistical analysis techniques which are appropriate for data attributes and SPSS 15 program in computer environment were used. The research problem and data concerning sub problems, t test, one way analysis of variance were used; researchers’ gender, age and socio demographic attributes were determined as frequency and percentage value. As a result, the research findings revealed that there is no meaningful difference of female and male students between personality attributes and awareness levels of interpersonal relationships. This result indicates that females and males are not aware of what is happening in their interpersonal relationships and do not pay attention to the quality of their relationships.

Community health nursing practices in contexts of poverty, uncertainty and unpredictability: a systematization of personal experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Laperrière, Hélène

2007-01-01

Several years of professional nursing practices, while living in the poorest neighbourhoods in the outlying areas of Brazil's Amazon region, have led the author to develop a better understanding of marginalized populations. Providing care to people with leprosy and sex workers in riverside communities has taken place in conditions of uncertainty, insecurity, unpredictability and institutional violence. The question raised is how we can develop community health nursing practices in this context. A systematization of personal experiences based on popular education is used and analyzed as a way of learning by obtaining scientific knowledge through critical analysis of field practices. Ties of solidarity and belonging developed in informal, mutual-help action groups are promising avenues for research and the development of knowledge in health promotion, prevention and community care and a necessary contribution to national public health programmers.

Quantifying phenomenological importance in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Robert P.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a general methodology for quantifying the importance of specific phenomenological elements to analysis measures evaluated from non-parametric best-estimate plus uncertainty evaluation methodologies. The principal objective of an importance analysis is to reveal those uncertainty contributors having the greatest influence on key analysis measures. This characterization supports the credibility of the uncertainty analysis, the applicability of the analytical tools, and even the generic evaluation methodology through the validation of the engineering judgments that guided the evaluation methodology development. A demonstration of the importance analysis is provided using data from a sample problem considered in the development of AREVA's Realistic LBLOCA methodology. The results are presented against the original large-break LOCA Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table developed by the Technical Program Group responsible for authoring the Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty methodology. (author)

Lessons learnt on biases and uncertainties in personal exposure measurement surveys of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields with exposimeters.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolte, John F B

2016-09-01

Personal exposure measurements of radio frequency electromagnetic fields are important for epidemiological studies and developing prediction models. Minimizing biases and uncertainties and handling spatial and temporal variability are important aspects of these measurements. This paper reviews the lessons learnt from testing the different types of exposimeters and from personal exposure measurement surveys performed between 2005 and 2015. Applying them will improve the comparability and ranking of exposure levels for different microenvironments, activities or (groups of) people, such that epidemiological studies are better capable of finding potential weak correlations with health effects. Over 20 papers have been published on how to prevent biases and minimize uncertainties due to: mechanical errors; design of hardware and software filters; anisotropy; and influence of the body. A number of biases can be corrected for by determining multiplicative correction factors. In addition a good protocol on how to wear the exposimeter, a sufficiently small sampling interval and sufficiently long measurement duration will minimize biases. Corrections to biases are possible for: non-detects through detection limit, erroneous manufacturer calibration and temporal drift. Corrections not deemed necessary, because no significant biases have been observed, are: linearity in response and resolution. Corrections difficult to perform after measurements are for: modulation/duty cycle sensitivity; out of band response aka cross talk; temperature and humidity sensitivity. Corrections not possible to perform after measurements are for: multiple signals detection in one band; flatness of response within a frequency band; anisotropy to waves of different elevation angle. An analysis of 20 microenvironmental surveys showed that early studies using exposimeters with logarithmic detectors, overestimated exposure to signals with bursts, such as in uplink signals from mobile phones and Wi

Solid Waste Program technical baseline description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlson, A.B.

1994-07-01

The system engineering approach has been taken to describe the technical baseline under which the Solid Waste Program is currently operating. The document contains a mission analysis, function analysis, system definition, documentation requirements, facility and project bases, and uncertainties facing the program.

Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicari Kristin J

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of

Internal design of technical systems under conditions of uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krasnoshchekov, P S; Morozov, V V; Fedorov, V V

1982-03-01

An investigation is made of a model of internal design of a complex technical system in the presence of uncertain factors. The influence of an opponent on the design is examined. The concepts of hierarchical and balanced compatibility between the criteria of the designer, the opponent and the segregations functions are introduced and studied. The connection between the approach proposed and the methods of artificial intelligence is discussed. 5 references.

Solar UV exposure among outdoor workers in Denmark measured with personal UV-B dosimeters: technical and practical feasibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Grandahl, Kasper; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Sherman, David Zim; Køster, Brian; Lund, Paul-Anker; Ibler, Kristina Sophie; Eriksen, Paul

2017-10-10

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation is a well-known cause of skin cancer. This is problematic for outdoor workers. In Denmark alone, occupational skin cancer poses a significant health and safety risk for around 400,000 outdoor workers. Objective measures of solar ultraviolet radiation exposure are needed to help resolve this problem. This can be done using personal ultraviolet radiation dosimeters. We consider technical and practical feasibility of measuring individual solar ultraviolet exposure at work and leisure in professions with different á priori temporal high-level outdoor worktime, using aluminium gallium nitride (AlGaN) photodiode detector based personal UV-B dosimeters. Essential technical specifications including the spectral and angular responsivity of the dosimeters are described and pre-campaign dosimeter calibration applicability is verified. The scale and conduct of dosimeter deployment and campaign in-field measurements including failures and shortcomings affecting overall data collection are presented. Nationwide measurements for more than three hundred and fifty workers from several different professions were collected in the summer of 2016. On average, each worker's exposure was measured for a 2-week period, which included both work and leisure. Data samples of exposure at work during a Midsummer day show differences across professions. A construction worker received high-level occupational UV exposure most of the working day, except during lunch hour, accumulating to 5.1 SED. A postal service worker was exposed intermittently around noon and in the afternoon, preceded by no exposure forenoon when packing mail, accumulating to 1.6 SED. A crane fitter was exposed only during lunch hour, accumulating to 0.7 SED. These findings are in line with our specialist knowledge as occupational physicians. Large-scale use of personal UV-B dosimeters for measurement of solar ultraviolet radiation exposure at work and leisure in Denmark is indeed

Uncertainty models applied to the substation planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fontoura Filho, Roberto N [ELETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Aires, Joao Carlos O; Tortelly, Debora L.S. [Light Servicos de Eletricidade S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

1994-12-31

The selection of the reinforcements for a power system expansion becomes a difficult task on an environment of uncertainties. These uncertainties can be classified according to their sources as exogenous and endogenous. The first one is associated to the elements of the generation, transmission and distribution systems. The exogenous uncertainly is associated to external aspects, as the financial resources, the time spent to build the installations, the equipment price and the load level. The load uncertainly is extremely sensible to the behaviour of the economic conditions. Although the impossibility to take out completely the uncertainty , the endogenous one can be convenient treated and the exogenous uncertainly can be compensated. This paper describes an uncertainty treatment methodology and a practical application to a group of substations belonging to LIGHT company, the Rio de Janeiro electric utility. The equipment performance uncertainty is treated by adopting a probabilistic approach. The uncertainly associated to the load increase is considered by using technical analysis of scenarios and choice criteria based on the Decision Theory. On this paper it was used the Savage Method and the Fuzzy Set Method, in order to select the best middle term reinforcements plan. (author) 7 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs.

Conditional inevitability: Expert perceptions of carbon capture and storage uncertainties in the UK context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evar, Benjamin

2011-01-01

This paper presents findings on expert perceptions of uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and policy in the UK, through survey data and semi-structured interviews with 19 individual participants. Experts were interviewed in industry, research, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the summer of 2009 and were asked to comment on a range of technical processes as well as policy concerns. The survey revealed that perceptions of the technology conform to a 'certainty trough' with users expressing the lowest level of uncertainty, and outsiders expressing the highest level of uncertainty. The interviews revealed that experts express certitude in the prospects for deploying large-scale CCS technology in the UK, all the while questioning several underlying technical and policy premises that are necessary to ensure this goal. - Highlights: → Expert perceptions of CCS in the UK are reported in interviews and a survey. → Surveyed perceptions conform to a 'certainty trough'. → Experts express certitude in prospect of large-scale CCS deployment in the UK. → Experts state that several technical and policy premises are necessary to ensure this goal. → Prospect of large-scale CCS deployment is observed to be highly belief-based.

Conditional inevitability: Expert perceptions of carbon capture and storage uncertainties in the UK context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evar, Benjamin, E-mail: ben.evar@ed.ac.uk [Scottish Carbon Capture and Storage, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP (United Kingdom)

2011-06-15

This paper presents findings on expert perceptions of uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and policy in the UK, through survey data and semi-structured interviews with 19 individual participants. Experts were interviewed in industry, research, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the summer of 2009 and were asked to comment on a range of technical processes as well as policy concerns. The survey revealed that perceptions of the technology conform to a 'certainty trough' with users expressing the lowest level of uncertainty, and outsiders expressing the highest level of uncertainty. The interviews revealed that experts express certitude in the prospects for deploying large-scale CCS technology in the UK, all the while questioning several underlying technical and policy premises that are necessary to ensure this goal. - Highlights: > Expert perceptions of CCS in the UK are reported in interviews and a survey. > Surveyed perceptions conform to a 'certainty trough'. > Experts express certitude in prospect of large-scale CCS deployment in the UK. > Experts state that several technical and policy premises are necessary to ensure this goal. > Prospect of large-scale CCS deployment is observed to be highly belief-based.

Uncertainties in bone (knee region) in vivo monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venturini, Luzia; Sordi, Gian-Maria A.A.; Vanin, Vito R.

2008-01-01

Full text: The bones in the knee region are among the possible choices to estimate radionuclide deposit in the skeleton. Finding the optimum measurement conditions requires the determination of the uncertainties and their relationship with the detector arrangement in the available space, variations in bone anatomy, and non-uniformity in radionuclide deposit. In this work, geometric models for the bones in the knee region and Monte Carlo simulation of the measurement efficiency were used to estimate uncertainties in the in vivo monitoring in the 46 -- 186 keV gamma-ray energy range. The bone models are based on geometrical figures such as ellipsoids and cylinders and have already been published elsewhere. Their parameters are diameters, axis orientations, lengths, and relative positions determined from a survey on real pieces. A 1.70 m tall person was used as a reference; bone model parameters for 1.50 m and 1.90 m tall persons were deduced from the previously published data, to evaluate the uncertainties related to bone size. The simulated experimental arrangement consisted of four HPGe detectors measuring radiation from the knees in the bed geometry; uncertainties from radionuclide deposit distribution, compact bone density and bone size were also included. The detectors were placed at 22 cm height from the bed and it was assumed that the part of the bones seen by the detectors consists in the first 25 cm from the patella, both in feet and hip directions. The cover tissue was not taken as an uncertainty source, but its effect on the final detection efficiency was taken into account. The calculations consider the main interaction types between radiation and the detector crystal, and the radiation attenuation in the bones and the layers of materials between bones and detectors. It was found that the uncertainties depend strongly on the hypotheses made. For example, for 46 keV gamma-rays, a 1.70 m tall person with normal bone density and radionuclide deposit in the

A survey of resilience, burnout, and tolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice registrars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cooke Georga PE

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Burnout and intolerance of uncertainty have been linked to low job satisfaction and lower quality patient care. While resilience is related to these concepts, no study has examined these three concepts in a cohort of doctors. The objective of this study was to measure resilience, burnout, compassion satisfaction, personal meaning in patient care and intolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice (GP registrars. Methods We conducted a paper-based cross-sectional survey of GP registrars in Australia from June to July 2010, recruited from a newsletter item or registrar education events. Survey measures included the Resilience Scale-14, a single-item scale for burnout, Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL scale, Personal Meaning in Patient Care scale, Intolerance of Uncertainty-12 scale, and Physician Response to Uncertainty scale. Results 128 GP registrars responded (response rate 90%. Fourteen percent of registrars were found to be at risk of burnout using the single-item scale for burnout, but none met the criteria for burnout using the ProQOL scale. Secondary traumatic stress, general intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety due to clinical uncertainty and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients were associated with being at higher risk of burnout, but sex, age, practice location, training duration, years since graduation, and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to physicians were not. Only ten percent of registrars had high resilience scores. Resilience was positively associated with compassion satisfaction and personal meaning in patient care. Resilience was negatively associated with burnout, secondary traumatic stress, inhibitory anxiety, general intolerance to uncertainty, concern about bad outcomes and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients. Conclusions GP registrars in this survey showed a lower level of burnout than in other recent surveys of the broader junior doctor population in both Australia

Multi-criteria evaluation of wastewater treatment plant control strategies under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Rodríguez-Roda, Ignasi; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2008-11-01

The evaluation of activated sludge control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) via mathematical modelling is a complex activity because several objectives; e.g. economic, environmental, technical and legal; must be taken into account at the same time, i.e. the evaluation of the alternatives is a multi-criteria problem. Activated sludge models are not well characterized and some of the parameters can present uncertainty, e.g. the influent fractions arriving to the facility and the effect of either temperature or toxic compounds on the kinetic parameters, having a strong influence in the model predictions used during the evaluation of the alternatives and affecting the resulting rank of preferences. Using a simplified version of the IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 as a case study, this article shows the variations in the decision making when the uncertainty in activated sludge model (ASM) parameters is either included or not during the evaluation of WWTP control strategies. This paper comprises two main sections. Firstly, there is the evaluation of six WWTP control strategies using multi-criteria decision analysis setting the ASM parameters at their default value. In the following section, the uncertainty is introduced, i.e. input uncertainty, which is characterized by probability distribution functions based on the available process knowledge. Next, Monte Carlo simulations are run to propagate input through the model and affect the different outcomes. Thus (i) the variation in the overall degree of satisfaction of the control objectives for the generated WWTP control strategies is quantified, (ii) the contributions of environmental, legal, technical and economic objectives to the existing variance are identified and finally (iii) the influence of the relative importance of the control objectives during the selection of alternatives is analyzed. The results show that the control strategies with an external carbon source reduce the output uncertainty

Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pilch, Martin, E-mail: mpilch@sandia.gov [Department 1514, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0828 (United States); Trucano, Timothy G. [Department 1411, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0370 (United States); Helton, Jon C. [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1804 (United States)

2011-09-15

Key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions are described. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, the following topics are discussed: (i) the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, (ii) the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and (iii) the properties of risk-informed decision making (RIDM) that are best suited for effective application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides an extensive bibliography of useful papers for interested readers to deepen their understanding of the presented ideas.

Ergonomic guidelines for using notebook personal computers. Technical Committee on Human-Computer Interaction, International Ergonomics Association.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, S; Piccoli, B; Smith, M J; Sotoyama, M; Sweitzer, G; Villanueva, M B; Yoshitake, R

2000-10-01

In the 1980's, the visual display terminal (VDT) was introduced in workplaces of many countries. Soon thereafter, an upsurge in reported cases of related health problems, such as musculoskeletal disorders and eyestrain, was seen. Recently, the flat panel display or notebook personal computer (PC) became the most remarkable feature in modern workplaces with VDTs and even in homes. A proactive approach must be taken to avert foreseeable ergonomic and occupational health problems from the use of this new technology. Because of its distinct physical and optical characteristics, the ergonomic requirements for notebook PCs in terms of machine layout, workstation design, lighting conditions, among others, should be different from the CRT-based computers. The Japan Ergonomics Society (JES) technical committee came up with a set of guidelines for notebook PC use following exploratory discussions that dwelt on its ergonomic aspects. To keep in stride with this development, the Technical Committee on Human-Computer Interaction under the auspices of the International Ergonomics Association worked towards the international issuance of the guidelines. This paper unveils the result of this collaborative effort.

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

2001-11-09

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

Waste management project technical baseline description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sederburg, J.P.

1997-01-01

A systems engineering approach has been taken to describe the technical baseline under which the Waste Management Project is currently operating. The document contains a mission analysis, function analysis, requirement analysis, interface definitions, alternative analysis, system definition, documentation requirements, implementation definitions, and discussion of uncertainties facing the Project

TECHNICAL CULTURE AND HUMAN AXJOSPHERE

OpenAIRE

­Krystyna Chałas

2014-01-01

Technical culture is the value of each historical period. It is the subject of the ongoing development. While it is a value which is associated with different categories of values, mainly material, cognitive, social. Between culture and these three categories of values ​ there is a cognitive effect. Technical culture determines the quality of human axjosphere. The aim of this study is to show the relationships and dependencies between technical culture and the structures in which a person liv...

Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeMuth, S.F.; Franklin, A.L.

1996-01-01

It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford

Handling uncertainty and networked structure in robot control

CERN Document Server

Tamás, Levente

2015-01-01

This book focuses on two challenges posed in robot control by the increasing adoption of robots in the everyday human environment: uncertainty and networked communication. Part I of the book describes learning control to address environmental uncertainty. Part II discusses state estimation, active sensing, and complex scenario perception to tackle sensing uncertainty. Part III completes the book with control of networked robots and multi-robot teams. Each chapter features in-depth technical coverage and case studies highlighting the applicability of the techniques, with real robots or in simulation. Platforms include mobile ground, aerial, and underwater robots, as well as humanoid robots and robot arms. Source code and experimental data are available at http://extras.springer.com. The text gathers contributions from academic and industry experts, and offers a valuable resource for researchers or graduate students in robot control and perception. It also benefits researchers in related areas, such as computer...

a New Model for Fuzzy Personalized Route Planning Using Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation

Science.gov (United States)

Nadi, S.; Houshyaripour, A. H.

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a new model for personalized route planning under uncertain condition. Personalized routing, involves different sources of uncertainty. These uncertainties can be raised from user's ambiguity about their preferences, imprecise criteria values and modelling process. The proposed model uses Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation Analytical Hierarchical Process (FLPRAHP) to analyse user's preferences under uncertainty. Routing is a multi-criteria task especially in transportation networks, where the users wish to optimize their routes based on different criteria. However, due to the lake of knowledge about the preferences of different users and uncertainties available in the criteria values, we propose a new personalized fuzzy routing method based on the fuzzy ranking using center of gravity. The model employed FLPRAHP method to aggregate uncertain criteria values regarding uncertain user's preferences while improve consistency with least possible comparisons. An illustrative example presents the effectiveness and capability of the proposed model to calculate best personalize route under fuzziness and uncertainty.

LNG Industry in Europe beset by uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forbes, A.

2007-01-01

Over the past five years, the liquefied natural gas industry (LNG) has metamorphosed from a specialist niche business into a mainstream source of energy supply, It is currently by far the fastest-growing source of fossil fuel and growth forecasts. However, the industry's future is beset by uncertainty, not least in Europe. Supply is tight, technical skills are hard to come by, and even future demand looks uncertain

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

2013-01-01

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

30 CFR 777.13 - Reporting of technical data.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Reporting of technical data. 777.13 Section 777... PROGRAMS GENERAL CONTENT REQUIREMENTS FOR PERMIT APPLICATIONS § 777.13 Reporting of technical data. (a) All technical data submitted in the application shall be accompanied by the names of persons or organizations...

Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies - Implication for UK decarbonisation targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kannan, R.

2009-01-01

The UK government's economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a 'what-if' framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented. (author)

On the EU approach for DEMO architecture exploration and dealing with uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, M., E-mail: matti.coleman@euro-fusion.org [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Maviglia, F.; Bachmann, C. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Anthony, J. [CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Federici, G. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Shannon, M. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Wenninger, R. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, 85748 Garching (Germany)

2016-11-01

Highlights: • The issue of epistemic uncertainties in the DEMO design basis is described. • An approach to tackle uncertainty by investigating plant architectures is proposed. • The first wall heat load uncertainty is addressed following the proposed approach. - Abstract: One of the difficulties inherent in designing a future fusion reactor is dealing with uncertainty. As the major step between ITER and the commercial exploitation of nuclear fusion energy, DEMO will have to address many challenges – the natures of which are still not fully known. Unlike fission reactors, fusion reactors suffer from the intrinsic complexity of the tokamak (numerous interdependent system parameters) and from the dependence of plasma physics on scale – prohibiting design exploration founded on incremental progression and small-scale experimentation. For DEMO, this means that significant technical uncertainties will exist for some time to come, and a systems engineering design exploration approach must be developed to explore the reactor architecture when faced with these uncertainties. Important uncertainties in the context of fusion reactor design are discussed and a strategy for dealing with these is presented, treating the uncertainty in the first wall loads as an example.

Atomic energy wants new personality. An essay of education and personality in atomic energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takuma, Masao

2004-01-01

New personality in atomic energy consists of personification of independence, democracy and publication. They are able to create new technologies and new plants with safety and maintenance. The technical experts and all the parties concerned have to explain the situation and the conditions of atomic energy in order to justify the people's trust in them. Only good personality with morals can obtain the confidence of the nation. It is important for new technical experts and all the parties concerned to receive an education related to sociality. (S.Y.)

Strategies, Uncertainty and Performance of Small Business Startups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.M. van Gelderen (Marco); M. Frese (Michael); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

2000-01-01

textabstractPersonal strategies of owners/founders of small business startups are related to performance and to environmental uncertainty. This is done using a longitudinal data set of some 50 Dutch startups. The results suggest a dynamic process between strategy and performance. A discrimination is

10 CFR 440.23 - Oversight, training, and technical assistance.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Oversight, training, and technical assistance. 440.23... PERSONS § 440.23 Oversight, training, and technical assistance. (a) The Secretary and the appropriate..., directly or indirectly, training and technical assistance to any grantee or subgrantee. Such training and...

Influence of uncertainty on framed decision-making with moral dilemma.

Science.gov (United States)

Merlhiot, Gaëtan; Mermillod, Martial; Le Pennec, Jean-Luc; Dutheil, Frédéric; Mondillon, Laurie

2018-01-01

In cases of impending natural disasters, most events are uncertain and emotionally relevant, both critical factors for decision-making. Moreover, for exposed individuals, the sensitivity to the framing of the consequences (gain or loss) and the moral judgments they have to perform (e.g., evacuate or help an injured person) constitute two central effects that have never been examined in the same context of decision-making. In a framed decision-making task with moral dilemma, we investigated whether uncertainty (i.e., unpredictably of events) and a threatening context would influence the framing effect (actions framed in loss are avoided in comparison to the ones framed in gain) and the personal intention effect (unintentional actions are more morally acceptable in comparison to intentional actions) on the perceived moral acceptability of taking action. Considering the impact of uncertainty and fear on the processes underlying these effects, we assumed that these emotions would lead to the negation of the two effects. Our results indicate that the exposure to uncertain events leads to the negation of the framing effect, but does not influence the moral acceptability and the effect of personal intention. We discuss our results in the light of dual-process models (i.e. systematic vs. heuristic), appraisal theories, and neurocognitive aspects. These elements highlight the importance of providing solutions to cope with uncertainty, both for scientists and local populations exposed to natural hazards.

REDD+ emissions estimation and reporting: dealing with uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pelletier, Johanne; Potvin, Catherine; Martin, Davy

2013-01-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined the technical and financial modalities of policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). Substantial technical challenges hinder precise and accurate estimation of forest-related emissions and removals, as well as the setting and assessment of reference levels. These challenges could limit country participation in REDD+, especially if REDD+ emission reductions were to meet quality standards required to serve as compliance grade offsets for developed countries’ emissions. Using Panama as a case study, we tested the matrix approach proposed by Bucki et al (2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 024005) to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis distinguishing between ‘modelling sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to model-specific parameters and assumptions, and ‘recurring sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to random and systematic errors in emission factors and activity data. The sensitivity analysis estimated differences in the resulting fluxes ranging from 4.2% to 262.2% of the reference emission level. The classification of fallows and the carbon stock increment or carbon accumulation of intact forest lands were the two key parameters showing the largest sensitivity. The highest error propagated using Monte Carlo simulations was caused by modelling sources of uncertainty, which calls for special attention to ensure consistency in REDD+ reporting which is essential for securing environmental integrity. Due to the role of these modelling sources of uncertainty, the adoption of strict rules for estimation and reporting would favour comparability of emission reductions between countries. We believe that a reduction of the bias in emission factors will arise, among other things, from a globally concerted effort to improve allometric equations for tropical forests. Public access to datasets and methodology

REDD+ emissions estimation and reporting: dealing with uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Pelletier, Johanne; Martin, Davy; Potvin, Catherine

2013-09-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined the technical and financial modalities of policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). Substantial technical challenges hinder precise and accurate estimation of forest-related emissions and removals, as well as the setting and assessment of reference levels. These challenges could limit country participation in REDD+, especially if REDD+ emission reductions were to meet quality standards required to serve as compliance grade offsets for developed countries’ emissions. Using Panama as a case study, we tested the matrix approach proposed by Bucki et al (2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 024005) to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis distinguishing between ‘modelling sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to model-specific parameters and assumptions, and ‘recurring sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to random and systematic errors in emission factors and activity data. The sensitivity analysis estimated differences in the resulting fluxes ranging from 4.2% to 262.2% of the reference emission level. The classification of fallows and the carbon stock increment or carbon accumulation of intact forest lands were the two key parameters showing the largest sensitivity. The highest error propagated using Monte Carlo simulations was caused by modelling sources of uncertainty, which calls for special attention to ensure consistency in REDD+ reporting which is essential for securing environmental integrity. Due to the role of these modelling sources of uncertainty, the adoption of strict rules for estimation and reporting would favour comparability of emission reductions between countries. We believe that a reduction of the bias in emission factors will arise, among other things, from a globally concerted effort to improve allometric equations for tropical forests. Public access to datasets and methodology

Technical know-how of site descriptive modeling for site characterization - 59089

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Onoe, Hironori; Doke, Ryosuke; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Ken-ichi

2012-01-01

The site descriptive model covering the current status of characteristics of geological environment and the site evolution model for estimation of the long-term evolution of site conditions are used to integrate multi-disciplinary investigation results. It is important to evaluate uncertainties in the models, to specify issues regarding the uncertainties and to prioritize the resolution of specified issues, for the planning of site characterization. There is a large quantity of technical know-how in the modeling process. It is important to record the technical know-how with transparency and traceability, since site characterization projects generally need long duration. The transfer of the technical know-how accumulated in the research and development (R and D) phase to the implementation phase is equally important. The aim of this study is to support the planning of initial surface-based site characterizations based on the technical know-how accumulated from the underground research laboratory projects. These projects are broad scientific studies of the deep geological environment and provide a technical basis for the geological disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. In this study, a comprehensive task flow from acquisition of existing data to planning of field investigations through the modeling has been specified. Specific task flow and decision-making process to perform the tasks have been specified. (authors)

Public Perceptions of Regulatory Costs, Their Uncertainty and Interindividual Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Branden B; Finkel, Adam M

2016-06-01

Public perceptions of both risks and regulatory costs shape rational regulatory choices. Despite decades of risk perception studies, this article is the first on regulatory cost perceptions. A survey of 744 U.S. residents probed: (1) How knowledgeable are laypeople about regulatory costs incurred to reduce risks? (2) Do laypeople see official estimates of cost and benefit (lives saved) as accurate? (3) (How) do preferences for hypothetical regulations change when mean-preserving spreads of uncertainty replace certain cost or benefit? and (4) (How) do preferences change when unequal interindividual distributions of hypothetical regulatory costs replace equal distributions? Respondents overestimated costs of regulatory compliance, while assuming agencies underestimate costs. Most assumed agency estimates of benefits are accurate; a third believed both cost and benefit estimates are accurate. Cost and benefit estimates presented without uncertainty were slightly preferred to those surrounded by "narrow uncertainty" (a range of costs or lives entirely within a personally-calibrated zone without clear acceptance or rejection of tradeoffs). Certain estimates were more preferred than "wide uncertainty" (a range of agency estimates extending beyond these personal bounds, thus posing a gamble between favored and unacceptable tradeoffs), particularly for costs as opposed to benefits (but even for costs a quarter of respondents preferred wide uncertainty to certainty). Agency-acknowledged uncertainty in general elicited mixed judgments of honesty and trustworthiness. People preferred egalitarian distributions of regulatory costs, despite skewed actual cost distributions, and preferred progressive cost distributions (the rich pay a greater than proportional share) to regressive ones. Efficient and socially responsive regulations require disclosure of much more information about regulatory costs and risks. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevin Coppersmith

2001-01-01

performance difficult. Likewise, a demonstration of the magnitude of conservatisms in the dose estimates that result from conservative inputs is difficult to determine. To respond to these issues, the DOE explored the significance of uncertainties and the magnitude of conservatisms in the SSPA Volumes 1 and 2 (BSC 2001 [DIRS 155950]; BSC 2001 [DIRS 154659]). The three main goals of this report are: (1) To briefly summarize and consolidate the discussion of much of the work that has been done over the past few years to evaluate, clarify, and improve the representation of uncertainties in the TSPA and performance projections for a potential repository. This report does not contain any new analyses of those uncertainties, but it summarizes in one place the main findings of that work. (2) To develop a strategy for how uncertainties may be handled in the TSPA and supporting analyses and models to support a License Application, should the site be recommended. It should be noted that the strategy outlined in this report is based on current information available to DOE. The strategy may be modified pending receipt of additional pertinent information, such as the Yucca Mountain Review Plan. (3) To discuss issues related to communication about uncertainties, and propose some approaches the DOE may use in the future to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its models and performance assessments to decision-makers and to technical audiences

[Personal emergency call system based on human vital and system technical parameters in a Smart Home environment].

Science.gov (United States)

Hampicke, M; Schadow, B; Rossdeutscher, W; Fellbaum, K; Boenick, U

2002-11-01

Progress in microtechnology and radio transmission technology has enabled the development of highly reliable emergency-call systems. The present article describes systems that have been specially designed to improve the safety and independence of handicapped and elderly persons living at home. For such persons immediate help in an emergency situation is of crucial importance. The technical state of the art of emergency-call systems specially developed for use by the elderly, is briefly discussed, in particular the well-known radio emergency-call button, with the aid of which an alarm can be activated manually. This system, however, does not offer adequate safety in all emergency situations. Alternative or complementary systems designed to automatically trigger an alarm on the basis of the recording and evaluation of so-called vital parameters, are therefore proposed. In addition, in a smart-home environment with networked devices, further parameters--so-called environment parameters can be used. It is found that the identification of an emergency situation becomes more reliable as the number of parameters employed increases.

Probabilistic Approach to Enable Extreme-Scale Simulations under Uncertainty and System Faults. Final Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knio, Omar [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science

2017-05-05

The current project develops a novel approach that uses a probabilistic description to capture the current state of knowledge about the computational solution. To effectively spread the computational effort over multiple nodes, the global computational domain is split into many subdomains. Computational uncertainty in the solution translates into uncertain boundary conditions for the equation system to be solved on those subdomains, and many independent, concurrent subdomain simulations are used to account for this bound- ary condition uncertainty. By relying on the fact that solutions on neighboring subdomains must agree with each other, a more accurate estimate for the global solution can be achieved. Statistical approaches in this update process make it possible to account for the effect of system faults in the probabilistic description of the computational solution, and the associated uncertainty is reduced through successive iterations. By combining all of these elements, the probabilistic reformulation allows splitting the computational work over very many independent tasks for good scalability, while being robust to system faults.

The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

1994-01-01

All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

2017-07-19

Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

Ideas underlying quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU): a white paper.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, Jon Craig; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

2006-09-01

This report describes key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions at Sandia National Laboratories. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, we discuss the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and the risk-informed decision making that is best suited for decisive application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides a systematic bibliography of useful papers for the interested reader to deepen their understanding of these ideas.

Foundations for technical solutions in organizing excavation of open ore pits

OpenAIRE

С. И. Фомин

2016-01-01

To study stochastic mining technical systems of opencast mines, where parallel to clearly defined values random and indefinite factors operate, probabilistic and statistical techniques are mostly used nowadays. Formally, the task of producing a design solution may, under the conditions of indeterminacy be transformed into an equivalent deterministic problem formulated for a risky situation. Uncertainty in the initial mining, geological and technical-economic information available during t...

Quantification of uncertainty and of profitability in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Voegl, E

1970-07-01

This study is to acquaint the oil geologist, reservoir engineer, and manager with modern methods of appraising geological/technical projects and decision problems under uncertainty. Uncertainty attaches to any appraisal of investment projects whose income lies in the future. The greater that uncertainty, the less important become the appraisal methods proper while the computation procedures concerning uncertainty gain in significance. There are briefly discussed the tools of risk determination, i.e., mathematical statistics and probability theory, and some of the most common methods of quantifying the uncertainty are explained. The best known methods of decision finding under multivalent or uncertain expectations, such as conditional and sensibility analyses, minimax and minimax-risk rule, and preference theory are set forth. The risk is defined, and the most common methods of genuine risk determination in exploration and exploitation are discussed. Practical examples illustrate the solution of decision problems under uncertainty, and examples of genuine risk determination are furnished. (29 refs.)

The cerebellum and decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Blackwood, Nigel; Ffytche, Dominic; Simmons, Andrew; Bentall, Richard; Murray, Robin; Howard, Robert

2004-06-01

This study aimed to identify the neural basis of probabilistic reasoning, a type of inductive inference that aids decision making under conditions of uncertainty. Eight normal subjects performed two separate two-alternative-choice tasks (the balls in a bottle and personality survey tasks) while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The experimental conditions within each task were chosen so that they differed only in their requirement to make a decision under conditions of uncertainty (probabilistic reasoning and frequency determination required) or under conditions of certainty (frequency determination required). The same visual stimuli and motor responses were used in the experimental conditions. We provide evidence that the neo-cerebellum, in conjunction with the premotor cortex, inferior parietal lobule and medial occipital cortex, mediates the probabilistic inferences that guide decision making under uncertainty. We hypothesise that the neo-cerebellum constructs internal working models of uncertain events in the external world, and that such probabilistic models subserve the predictive capacity central to induction. Copyright 2004 Elsevier B.V.

A practical approach for the assessment and illustration of uncertainty in emissions modelling: a case study using GAINS Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, Fearghal; Fu, Miao; Kelly, J. Andrew

2011-01-01

National outlooks of emission levels are important components of international environmental policymaking and associated national policy development. This is the case for both greenhouse gas emissions and transboundary air pollutants. However, there is uncertainty inherent in the production of forecasts. In the climate context, IPCC guidelines have been established to support national teams in quantifying uncertainty within national inventory reporting of historic emissions. These are presented to indicate the potential range of deviation from reported values and to offer added evidence for policy decisions. However, the method and practice of accounting for uncertainty amongst emission forecasts is both less clear and less common. This paper posits that the role of forecasts in setting international targets and planning policy action renders the management of ‘forecast’ uncertainty as important as addressing uncertainty in the context of inventory and compliance work. Failure to explicitly present uncertainty in forecasting delivers an implicit and misplaced confidence in a given future scenario, irrespective of parallel work on other scenarios and sensitivities. However, it is acknowledged that approaches to uncertainty analyses within the literature are often highly technical and the models used are both computationally demanding and time-intensive. This can limit broader adoption where national capacities are limited and scenario development is frequent. This paper describes an approach to presenting uncertainty, where the aim is to balance the technical and temporal demands of uncertainty estimation against a means of delivering regular and practical estimation and presentation of uncertainty for any given scenario. In turn this methodology should help formalise the recognition of the uncertainty dimension in emissions forecasts, for all stakeholders engaged.

WE-B-19A-01: SRT II: Uncertainties in SRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dieterich, S; Schlesinger, D; Geneser, S

2014-01-01

SRS delivery has undergone major technical changes in the last decade, transitioning from predominantly frame-based treatment delivery to imageguided, frameless SRS. It is important for medical physicists working in SRS to understand the magnitude and sources of uncertainty involved in delivering SRS treatments for a multitude of technologies (Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, linac-based SRS and protons). Sources of SRS planning and delivery uncertainty include dose calculation, dose fusion, and intra- and inter-fraction motion. Dose calculations for small fields are particularly difficult because of the lack of electronic equilibrium and greater effect of inhomogeneities within and near the PTV. Going frameless introduces greater setup uncertainties that allows for potentially increased intra- and interfraction motion, The increased use of multiple imaging modalities to determine the tumor volume, necessitates (deformable) image and contour fusion, and the resulting uncertainties introduced in the image registration process further contribute to overall treatment planning uncertainties. Each of these uncertainties must be quantified and their impact on treatment delivery accuracy understood. If necessary, the uncertainties may then be accounted for during treatment planning either through techniques to make the uncertainty explicit, or by the appropriate addition of PTV margins. Further complicating matters, the statistics of 1-5 fraction SRS treatments differ from traditional margin recipes relying on Poisson statistics. In this session, we will discuss uncertainties introduced during each step of the SRS treatment planning and delivery process and present margin recipes to appropriately account for such uncertainties. Learning Objectives: To understand the major contributors to the total delivery uncertainty in SRS for Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, and linac-based SRS. Learn the various uncertainties introduced by image fusion, deformable image registration, and contouring

Influence of uncertainty on framed decision-making with moral dilemma

Science.gov (United States)

Mermillod, Martial; Le Pennec, Jean-Luc; Dutheil, Frédéric; Mondillon, Laurie

2018-01-01

In cases of impending natural disasters, most events are uncertain and emotionally relevant, both critical factors for decision-making. Moreover, for exposed individuals, the sensitivity to the framing of the consequences (gain or loss) and the moral judgments they have to perform (e.g., evacuate or help an injured person) constitute two central effects that have never been examined in the same context of decision-making. In a framed decision-making task with moral dilemma, we investigated whether uncertainty (i.e., unpredictably of events) and a threatening context would influence the framing effect (actions framed in loss are avoided in comparison to the ones framed in gain) and the personal intention effect (unintentional actions are more morally acceptable in comparison to intentional actions) on the perceived moral acceptability of taking action. Considering the impact of uncertainty and fear on the processes underlying these effects, we assumed that these emotions would lead to the negation of the two effects. Our results indicate that the exposure to uncertain events leads to the negation of the framing effect, but does not influence the moral acceptability and the effect of personal intention. We discuss our results in the light of dual-process models (i.e. systematic vs. heuristic), appraisal theories, and neurocognitive aspects. These elements highlight the importance of providing solutions to cope with uncertainty, both for scientists and local populations exposed to natural hazards. PMID:29847589

Framework for the assessment of PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement Systems) uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Giechaskiel, Barouch; Clairotte, Michael; Valverde-Morales, Victor; Bonnel, Pierre; Kregar, Zlatko; Franco, Vicente; Dilara, Panagiota

2018-06-13

European regulation 2016/427 (the first package of the so-called Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) regulation) introduced on-road testing with Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS) to complement the chassis dynamometer laboratory (Type I) test for the type approval of light-duty vehicles in the European Union since September 2017. The Not-To-Exceed (NTE) limit for a pollutant is the Type I test limit multiplied by a conformity factor that includes a margin for the additional measurement uncertainty of PEMS relative to standard laboratory equipment. The variability of measured results related to RDE trip design, vehicle operating conditions, and data evaluation remain outside of the uncertainty margin. The margins have to be reviewed annually (recital 10 of regulation 2016/646). This paper lays out the framework used for the first review of the NO x margin, which is also applicable to future margin reviews. Based on experimental data received from the stakeholders of the RDE technical working group in 2017, two NO x margin scenarios of 0.24-0.43 were calculated, accounting for different assumptions of possible zero drift behaviour of the PEMS during the tests. The reduced uncertainty margin compared to the one foreseen for 2020 (0.5) reflects the technical improvement of PEMS over the past few years. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alignment measurements uncertainties for large assemblies using probabilistic analysis techniques

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2090816; Almond, Heather

Big science and ambitious industrial projects continually push forward with technical requirements beyond the grasp of conventional engineering techniques. Example of those are ultra-high precision requirements in the field of celestial telescopes, particle accelerators and aerospace industry. Such extreme requirements are limited largely by the capability of the metrology used, namely, it’s uncertainty in relation to the alignment tolerance required. The current work was initiated as part of Maria Curie European research project held at CERN, Geneva aiming to answer those challenges as related to future accelerators requiring alignment of 2 m large assemblies to tolerances in the 10 µm range. The thesis has found several gaps in current knowledge limiting such capability. Among those was the lack of application of state of the art uncertainty propagation methods in alignment measurements metrology. Another major limiting factor found was the lack of uncertainty statements in the thermal errors compensatio...

TECHNICAL CULTURE AND HUMAN AXJOSPHERE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

­Krystyna Chałas

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Technical culture is the value of each historical period. It is the subject of the ongoing development. While it is a value which is associated with different categories of values, mainly material, cognitive, social. Between culture and these three categories of values ​ there is a cognitive effect. Technical culture determines the quality of human axjosphere. The aim of this study is to show the relationships and dependencies between technical culture and the structures in which a person lives and works. It is mainly about the answer to the question of which values of technical culture are closely related to and what are the inter dependencies? The primary task is to define the concept of the technical culture and to show its teaching essence. The second task boils down to indicate the range of values ​​inherent in the culture of technology, determining the value of the technological culture and values, which are developed by the technical culture. Indication of the interaction between the technical culture and values ​​is the third task.

Application of extended statistical combination of uncertainties methodology for digital nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In, Wang Ki; Uh, Keun Sun; Chul, Kim Heui [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1995-02-01

A technically more direct statistical combinations of uncertainties methodology, extended SCU (XSCU), was applied to statistically combine the uncertainties associated with the DNBR alarm setpoint and the DNBR trip setpoint of digital nuclear power plants. The modified SCU (MSCU) methodology is currently used as the USNRC approved design methodology to perform the same function. In this report, the MSCU and XSCU methodologies were compared in terms of the total uncertainties and the net margins to the DNBR alarm and trip setpoints. The MSCU methodology resulted in the small total penalties due to a significantly negative bias which are quite large. However the XSCU methodology gave the virtually unbiased total uncertainties. The net margins to the DNBR alarm and trip setpoints by the MSCU methodology agree with those by the XSCU methodology within statistical variations. (Author) 12 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs.

Uncertainty: a discriminator for above and below boiling repository design decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilder, D G; Lin, W; Buscheck, T A; Wolery, T J; Francis, N D

2000-01-01

The US nuclear waste disposal program is evaluating the Yucca Mountain (YM) site for possible disposal of nuclear waste. Radioactive decay of the waste, particularly spent fuel, generates sufficient heat to significantly raise repository temperatures. Environmental conditions in the repository system evolve in response to this heat. The amount of temperature increase, and thus environmental changes, depends on repository design and operations. Because the evolving environment cannot be directly measured until after waste is emplaced, licensing decisions must be based upon model and analytical projections of the environmental conditions. These analyses have inherent uncertainties. There is concern that elevated temperatures increase uncertainty, because most chemical reaction rates increase with temperature and boiling introduces additional complexity of vapor phase reactions and transport. This concern was expressed by the NWTRB, particularly for above boiling temperatures. They state that ''the cooler the repository, the lower the uncertainty about heat-driven water migration and the better the performance of waste package materials. Above this temperature, technical uncertainties tend to be significantly higher than those associated with below-boiling conditions.'' (Cohon 1999). However, not all uncertainties are reduced by lower temperatures, indeed some may even be increased. This paper addresses impacts of temperatures on uncertainties

The Personality Trait of Intolerance to Uncertainty Affects Behavior in a Novel Computer-Based Conditioned Place Preference Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milen Radell

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Recent work has found that personality factors that confer vulnerability to addiction can also affect learning and economic decision making. One personality trait which has been implicated in vulnerability to addiction is intolerance to uncertainty (IU, i.e. a preference for familiar over unknown (possible better options. In animals, the motivation to obtain drugs is often assessed through conditioned place preference (CPP, which compares preference for contexts where drug reward was previously received. It is an open question whether participants with high IU also show heightened preference for previously-rewarded contexts. To address this question, we developed a novel computer-based CPP task for humans in which participants guide an avatar through a paradigm in which one room contains frequent reward and one contains less frequent reward. Following exposure to both contexts, subjects are assessed for preference to enter the previously-rich and previously-poor room. Individuals with low IU showed little bias to enter the previously-rich room first, and instead entered both rooms at about the same rate. By contrast, those with high IU showed a strong bias to enter the previously-rich room first. This suggests an increased tendency to chase reward in the intolerant group, consistent with previously observed behavior in opioid-addicted individuals. Thus, high IU may represent a pre-existing cognitive bias that provides a mechanism to promote decision-making processes that increase vulnerability to addiction.

Managing project risks and uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike Mentis

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

Personal anticipated information need

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Bruce

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Background. The role of personal information collections is a well known feature of personal information management. The World Wide Web has introduced to such collections ideas such as filing Web pages or noting their existence in 'Bookmarks' and 'Favourites'. Argument. It is suggested that personal information collections are created in anticipation of some future need for that information-personal, anticipated information need, which also underlies the design of formal information systems. Elaboration. Examination of the literature of information needs and information seeking behaviour leads to the formulation of five propositions that elaborate the concept of personal, anticipated information need. These propositions draw upon concepts such as uncertainty, predictability, sensitivity and the valuation of information sources. Conclusion. An individual's understanding of personal, anticipated information need and how this understanding guides the acquisition and management of personal information will determine the effectiveness of that collection.

32 CFR 701.54 - Collection of fees and fee rates for technical data.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Collection of fees and fee rates for technical... fee rates for technical data. (a) Technical data, other than technical data that discloses critical... after the person requesting such technical data pays all reasonable costs attributed to search...

Earnings, Uncertainty, and the Self-Employment Choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Maire, Daniel; Schjerning, Bertel

2007-01-01

-employed can retain earnings and thereby transfer income across tax-years. Secondly, expected income level and income variance are important determinants in choice of occupation. Thirdly, men put more emphasis on expected earnings level, while women appears more risk averse, which contribute to explain why......This paper investigates the relationship between self-employment choice, expected earnings, and uncertainty. Several interesting results emerge from our analysis on Danish longitudinal register data: Firstly, self-employed (taxable) personal income bunch at kink points in the tax system since self...... fewer women are self-employed. Finally, our results suggest that non-western immigrants are marginalized into self-employment. Occupational choice, self-employment, wage-di¤erentials, income uncertainty, risk aversion, overcon…dence, self-selection, gender di¤erences.  ...

Internal dosimetry technical basis manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The internal dosimetry program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) consists of radiation protection programs and activities used to detect and evaluate intakes of radioactive material by radiation workers. Examples of such programs are: air monitoring; surface contamination monitoring; personal contamination surveys; radiobioassay; and dose assessment. The objectives of the internal dosimetry program are to demonstrate that the workplace is under control and that workers are not being exposed to radioactive material, and to detect and assess inadvertent intakes in the workplace. The Savannah River Site Internal Dosimetry Technical Basis Manual (TBM) is intended to provide a technical and philosophical discussion of the radiobioassay and dose assessment aspects of the internal dosimetry program. Detailed information on air, surface, and personal contamination surveillance programs is not given in this manual except for how these programs interface with routine and special bioassay programs

Internal dosimetry technical basis manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1990-12-20

The internal dosimetry program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) consists of radiation protection programs and activities used to detect and evaluate intakes of radioactive material by radiation workers. Examples of such programs are: air monitoring; surface contamination monitoring; personal contamination surveys; radiobioassay; and dose assessment. The objectives of the internal dosimetry program are to demonstrate that the workplace is under control and that workers are not being exposed to radioactive material, and to detect and assess inadvertent intakes in the workplace. The Savannah River Site Internal Dosimetry Technical Basis Manual (TBM) is intended to provide a technical and philosophical discussion of the radiobioassay and dose assessment aspects of the internal dosimetry program. Detailed information on air, surface, and personal contamination surveillance programs is not given in this manual except for how these programs interface with routine and special bioassay programs.

Communicating uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis : A cognitive psychological perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mouter, N.; Holleman, M.; Calvert, S.C.; Annema, J.A.

2013-01-01

Based on a cognitive psychological theory, this paper aims to improve the communication of uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis. The theory is based on different cognitive-personality and cognitive-social psychological constructs that may help explain individual differences in the processing of

Evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times addressing model and parameter uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martorell, S.; Martón, I.; Villamizar, M.; Sánchez, A.I.; Carlos, S.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach and an example of application for the evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times within the License Basis of a Nuclear Power Plant based on the use of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment addressing identification, treatment and analysis of uncertainties in an integrated manner. It allows full development of a three tired approach (Tier 1–3) following the principles of the risk-informed decision-making accounting for uncertainties as proposed by many regulators. Completion Time is the maximum outage time a safety related equipment is allowed to be down, e.g. for corrective maintenance, which is established within the Limiting Conditions for Operation included into Technical Specifications for operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. The case study focuses on a Completion Time change of the Accumulators System of a Nuclear Power Plant using a level 1 PRA. It focuses on several sources of model and parameter uncertainties. The results obtained show the risk impact of the proposed CT change including both types of epistemic uncertainties is small as compared with current safety goals of concern to Tier 1. However, what concerns to Tier 2 and 3, the results obtained show how the use of some traditional and uncertainty importance measures helps in identifying high risky configurations that should be avoided in NPP technical specifications no matter the duration of CT (Tier 2), and other configurations that could take part of a configuration risk management program (Tier 3). - Highlights: • New approach for evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times. • Integrated treatment and analysis of model and parameter uncertainties. • PSA based application to support risk-informed decision-making. • Measures of importance for identification of risky configurations. • Management of important safety issues to accomplish safety goals

MO-E-BRE-01: Determination, Minimization and Communication of Uncertainties in Radiation Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dyk, J; Palta, J; Bortfeld, T; Mijnheer, B

2014-01-01

Medical Physicists have a general understanding of uncertainties in the radiation treatment process, both with respect to dosimetry and geometry. However, there is a desire to be more quantitative about uncertainty estimation. A recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report (about to be published) recommends that we should be as “accurate as reasonably achievable, technical and biological factors being taken into account”. Thus, a single recommendation as a goal for accuracy in radiation therapy is an oversimplification. That report also suggests that individual clinics should determine their own level of uncertainties for their specific treatment protocols. The question is “how do we implement this in clinical practice”? AAPM Monograph 35 (2011 AAPM Summer School) addressed many specific aspects of uncertainties in each of the steps of a course of radiation treatment. The intent of this symposium is: (1) to review uncertainty considerations in the entire radiation treatment process including uncertainty determination for each step and uncertainty propagation for the total process, (2) to consider aspects of robust optimization which optimizes treatment plans while protecting them against uncertainties, and (3) to describe various methods of displaying uncertainties and communicating uncertainties to the relevant professionals. While the theoretical and research aspects will also be described, the emphasis will be on the practical considerations for the medical physicist in clinical practice. Learning Objectives: To review uncertainty determination in the overall radiation treatment process. To consider uncertainty modeling and uncertainty propagation. To highlight the basic ideas and clinical potential of robust optimization procedures to generate optimal treatment plans that are not severely affected by uncertainties. To describe methods of uncertainty communication and display

MO-E-BRE-01: Determination, Minimization and Communication of Uncertainties in Radiation Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Dyk, J; Palta, J; Bortfeld, T; Mijnheer, B [Western University, London, ON (United Kingdom)

2014-06-15

Medical Physicists have a general understanding of uncertainties in the radiation treatment process, both with respect to dosimetry and geometry. However, there is a desire to be more quantitative about uncertainty estimation. A recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report (about to be published) recommends that we should be as “accurate as reasonably achievable, technical and biological factors being taken into account”. Thus, a single recommendation as a goal for accuracy in radiation therapy is an oversimplification. That report also suggests that individual clinics should determine their own level of uncertainties for their specific treatment protocols. The question is “how do we implement this in clinical practice”? AAPM Monograph 35 (2011 AAPM Summer School) addressed many specific aspects of uncertainties in each of the steps of a course of radiation treatment. The intent of this symposium is: (1) to review uncertainty considerations in the entire radiation treatment process including uncertainty determination for each step and uncertainty propagation for the total process, (2) to consider aspects of robust optimization which optimizes treatment plans while protecting them against uncertainties, and (3) to describe various methods of displaying uncertainties and communicating uncertainties to the relevant professionals. While the theoretical and research aspects will also be described, the emphasis will be on the practical considerations for the medical physicist in clinical practice. Learning Objectives: To review uncertainty determination in the overall radiation treatment process. To consider uncertainty modeling and uncertainty propagation. To highlight the basic ideas and clinical potential of robust optimization procedures to generate optimal treatment plans that are not severely affected by uncertainties. To describe methods of uncertainty communication and display.

Uncertainty Evaluation for SMART Synthesized Power Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, J. Y.; Song, J. S.; Lee, C. C.; Park, S. Y.; Kim, K. Y.; Lee, K. H.

2010-07-01

This report performs the uncertainty analysis for the SMART synthesis power distribution generated by a SSUN (SMART core SUpporting system coupled by Nuclear design code) code. SSUN runs coupled with the MASTER neutronics code and generates the core 3-D synthesis power distribution by using DPCM3D. The MASTER code plays a role to provide the DPCM3D constants to the SSUN code for the current core states. The uncertainties evaluated in this report are the form of 95%/95% probability/confidence one-sided tolerance limits and can be used in conjunction with Technical Specification limits on these quantities to establish appropriate LCO (Limiting Conditions of Operation) and LSSS (Limiting Safety System Settings) limits. This report is applicable to SMART nuclear reactor using fixed rhodium detector systems. The unknown true power distribution should be given for the uncertainty evaluation of the synthesis power distribution. This report produces virtual distributions for the true power distribution by imposing the CASMO-3/MASTER uncertainty to the MASTER power distribution. Detector signals are generated from these virtual distribution and the DPCM3D constants are from the MASTER power distribution. The SSUN code synthesizes the core 3-D power distribution by using these detector signals and the DPCM3D constants. The following summarizes the uncertainty evaluation procedure for the synthesis power distribution. (1) Generation of 3-D power distribution by MASTER -> Determination of the DPCM3D constants. (2) Generation of virtual power distribution (assumed to be true power distribution) -> Generation of detector signals. (3) Generation of synthesis power distribution. (4) Uncertainty evaluation for the synthesis power distribution. Chi-Square normality test rejects the hypothesis of normal distribution for the synthesis power error distribution. Therefore, the KRUSKAL WALLIS test and the non-parametric statistics are used for data pooling and the tolerance limits. The

Sources of uncertainty in individual monitoring for photographic,TL and OSL dosimetry techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferreira, Max S.; Silva, Everton R.; Mauricio, Claudia L.P., E-mail: max.das.ferreira@gmail.com, E-mail: everton@ird.gov.br, E-mail: claudia@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2015-07-01

The identification of the uncertainty sources and their quantification is essential to the quality of any dosimetric results. If uncertainties are not stated for all dose measurements informed in the monthly dose report to the monitored radiation facilities, they need to be known. This study aims to analyze the influence of different sources of uncertainties associated with photographic, TL and OSL dosimetric techniques, considering the evaluation of occupational doses of whole-body exposure for photons. To identify the sources of uncertainty it was conducted a bibliographic review in specific documents that deal with operational aspects of each technique and the uncertainties associated to each of them. Withal, technical visits to individual monitoring services were conducted to assist in this identification. The sources of uncertainty were categorized and their contributions were expressed in a qualitative way. The process of calibration and traceability are the most important sources of uncertainties, regardless the technique used. For photographic dosimetry, the remaining important uncertainty sources are due to: energy and angular dependence; linearity of response; variations in the films processing. For TL and OSL, the key process for a good performance is respectively the reproducibility of the thermal and optical cycles. For the three techniques, all procedures of the measurement process must be standardized, controlled and reproducible. Further studies can be performed to quantify the contribution of the sources of uncertainty. (author)

Medical Humanities: The Rx for Uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Ofri, Danielle

2017-12-01

While medical students often fear the avalanche of knowledge they are required to learn during training, it is learning to translate that knowledge into wisdom that is the greatest challenge of becoming a doctor. Part of that challenge is learning to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty, a difficult feat for doctors who are taught to question anything that is not evidence based or peer reviewed. The medical humanities specialize in this ambiguity and uncertainty, which are hallmarks of actual clinical practice but rarely addressed in medical education. The humanities also force reflection and contemplation-skills that are crucial to thoughtful decision making and to personal wellness. Beyond that, the humanities add a dose of joy and beauty to a training process that is notoriously frugal in these departments. Well integrated, the humanities can be the key to transforming medical knowledge into clinical wisdom.

Getting acquainted through social networking sites: testing a model of online uncertainty reduction and social attraction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antheunis, M.L.; Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

2010-01-01

The first aim of this study was to examine which uncertainty reduction strategies members of social network sites used to gain information about a person who they had recently met online. The second aim was to investigate whether and how these uncertainty reduction strategies resulted in social

Getting acquainted through social networking sites: Testing a model of online uncertainty reduction and social attraction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antheunis, M.L.; Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

2008-01-01

The first aim of this study was to examine which uncertainty reduction strategies members of social networking sites used to gain information about a person who they had recently met online. The second aim was to investigate whether and how these uncertainty reduction strategies resulted in social

Socializing Identity Through Practice: A Mixed Methods Approach to Family Medicine Resident Perspectives on Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ledford, Christy J W; Cafferty, Lauren A; Seehusen, Dean A

2015-01-01

Uncertainty is a central theme in the practice of medicine and particularly primary care. This study explored how family medicine resident physicians react to uncertainty in their practice. This study incorporated a two-phase mixed methods approach, including semi-structured personal interviews (n=21) and longitudinal self-report surveys (n=21) with family medicine residents. Qualitative analysis showed that though residents described uncertainty as an implicit part of their identity, they still developed tactics to minimize or manage uncertainty in their practice. Residents described increasing comfort with uncertainty the longer they practiced and anticipated that growth continuing throughout their careers. Quantitative surveys showed that reactions to uncertainty were more positive over time; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Qualitative and quantitative results show that as family medicine residents practice medicine their perception of uncertainty changes. To reduce uncertainty, residents use relational information-seeking strategies. From a broader view of practice, residents describe uncertainty neutrally, asserting that uncertainty is simply part of the practice of family medicine.

Offshore wind farms for hydrogen production subject to uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kassem, Nabil [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Energy Processes

2002-07-01

Wind power is a source of clean, nonpolluting electricity, which is fully competitive, if installed at favorable wind sites, with fossil fuel and nuclear power generation. Major technical growth has been in Europe, where government policies and high conventional energy costs favor the use of wind power. As part of its strategy, the EU-Commission has launched a target to increase the installed capacity of Wind power from 7 GWe, in 1998 to 40 GWe by year 2012. Wind power is an intermittent electricity generator, thus it does not provide electric power on an 'as needed' basis. Off-peak power generated from offshore wind farms can be utilized for hydrogen production using water electrolysis. Like electricity, hydrogen is a second energy carrier, which will pave the way for future sustainable energy systems. It is environmentally friendly, versatile, with great potentials in stationary and mobile power applications. Water electrolysis is a well-established technology, which depends on the availability of cheap electrical power. Offshore wind farms have longer lifetime due to lower mechanical fatigue loads, yet to be economic, they have to be of sizes greater than 150 MW using large turbines (> 1.5 MW). The major challenge in wind energy assessment is how accurately the wind speed and hence the error in wind energy can be predicted. Therefore, wind power is subject to a great deal of uncertainties, which should be accounted for in order to provide meaningful and reliable estimates of performance and economic figures-of-merit. Failure to account for uncertainties would result in deterministic estimates that tend to overstate performance and underestimate costs. This study uses methods of risk analysis to evaluate the simultaneous effect of multiple input uncertainties, and provide Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the-economic viability of offshore wind systems for hydrogen production subject to technical and economical uncertainties (Published in summary form only)

Bioethics for Technical Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, Shigetaka

Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

Technical support and emergency centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohun, L.; Kapisovsk y, M.

1997-01-01

This paper presents technical support and emergency management center which will be on two places: Mochovce NPP Emergency Centre (Technical support center and Support working center) and Reserve Emergency Centre in Levice (Reserve emergency center and Environmental Evaluation Center). The main aims of the emergency management centers are: the management and coordination of all persons and organisations; provision of the all information needed to evaluation of the accident and its mitigation; continuous evaluation of the potential or real radiological consequences; taking measure for an early notification of the governmental bodies and the organizations, warning and protection of the public; and other aims. In the next part the data for technical support and emergency centre are discussed

Personal radiation protection in nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gol'dshtejn, D.S.; Koshcheev, V.S.

1983-01-01

Specific peculiarities of organization of personal radiation protection at various nuclear industry enterprises when dealing with radioactive and other toxic substances are illuminated. Effect of heatin.g and cooling microclimate is discussed. Medical and technical requirements for personal protection means and tasks of personal protection in the field of nuclear industry are considered in short along with some peculiarities of application of different kinds of personal protection means and psychological aspects of personnel protection

Safety Goal, Multi-unit Risk and PSA Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Joon-Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The safety goal is an answer of each country to the question 'How safe is safe enough?'. Table 1 shows some examples of the safety goal. However, many countries including Korea do not have the official safety goal for NPPs up to now since the establishment of safety goal is not just a technical issue but a very complex socio-technical issue. In establishing the safety goal for nuclear facilities, we have to consider various factors including not only technical aspects but also social, cultural ones. Recently, Korea is trying to establish the official safety goal. In this paper, we will review the relationship between the safety goal and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). We will also address some important technical issues to be considered in establishing the safety goal for NPPs from PSA point of view, i.e. a multi-unit risk issue and the uncertainty of PSA. In this paper, we reviewed some issues related to the safety goal and PSA. We believe that the safety goal is to be established in Korea considering the multi-unit risk. In addition, the relationship between the safety goal and PSA should be also defined clearly since PSA is the only way to answer to the question 'How safe is safe enough?'.

Technical recommendations for bilateral comparison in diagnosis radiology: part 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peixoto, J.G.P.; Almeida, C.E.V. de

2015-01-01

Uncertainty and results homogeneity need to following the technical procedure to bilateral comparison, then we select the equipment used, reference conditions and the data file to be used for all participant laboratory. The partial results will be presentation at metrology and medical physics congress. (author)

Uncertainty As a Trigger for a Paradigm Change in Science Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, S.

2014-12-01

Over the last decade, the need to communicate uncertainty increased. Climate sciences and environmental sciences have faced massive propaganda campaigns by global industry and astroturf organizations. These organizations use the deep societal mistrust in uncertainty to point out alleged unethical and intentional delusion of decision makers and the public by scientists and their consultatory function. Scientists, who openly communicate uncertainty of climate model calculations, earthquake occurrence frequencies, or possible side effects of genetic manipulated semen have to face massive campaigns against their research, and sometimes against their person and live as well. Hence, new strategies to communicate uncertainty have to face the societal roots of the misunderstanding of the concept of uncertainty itself. Evolutionary biology has shown, that human mind is well suited for practical decision making by its sensory structures. Therefore, many of the irrational concepts about uncertainty are mitigated if data is presented in formats the brain is adapted to understand. At the end, the impact of uncertainty to the decision-making process is finally dominantly driven by preconceptions about terms such as uncertainty, vagueness or probabilities. Parallel to the increasing role of scientific uncertainty in strategic communication, science communicators for example at the Research and Development Program GEOTECHNOLOGIEN developed a number of techniques to master the challenge of putting uncertainty in the focus. By raising the awareness of scientific uncertainty as a driving force for scientific development and evolution, the public perspective on uncertainty is changing. While first steps to implement this process are under way, the value of uncertainty still is underestimated in the public and in politics. Therefore, science communicators are in need for new and innovative ways to talk about scientific uncertainty.

48 CFR 1403.101-70 - Technical evaluators and advisors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... GENERAL IMPROPER BUSINESS PRACTICES AND PERSONAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST Safeguards 1403.101-70 Technical... committees, must render impartial, technically sound, and objective assistance and advice. (b) With the... a Conflict of Interest Certificate in a format approved by the HCA. If a potential COI exists, the...

Simulation-Based Laparoscopic Surgery Crisis Resource Management Training-Predicting Technical and Nontechnical Skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldenberg, Mitchell G; Fok, Kai H; Ordon, Michael; Pace, Kenneth T; Lee, Jason Y

2017-12-19

To develop a unique simulation-based assessment using a laparoscopic inferior vena cava (IVC) injury scenario that allows for the safe assessment of urology resident's technical and nontechnical skills, and investigate the effect of personality traits performance in a surgical crisis. Urology residents from our institution were recruited to participate in a simulation-based training laparoscopic nephrectomy exercise. Residents completed demographic and multidimensional personality questionnaires and were instructed to play the role of staff urologist. A vasovagal response to pneumoperitoneum and an IVC injury event were scripted into the scenario. Technical and nontechnical skills were assessed by expert laparoscopic surgeons using validated tools (task checklist, GOALS, and NOTSS). Ten junior and five senior urology residents participated. Five residents were unable to complete the exercise safely. Senior residents outperformed juniors on technical (checklist score 15.1 vs 9.9, p Technical performance scores correlated with NOTSS scores (p technical performance (p technical score (p = 0.03) and pass/fail rating (p = 0.04). Resident level of training and laparoscopic experience correlated with technical performance during a simulation-based laparoscopic IVC injury crisis management scenario, as well as multiple domains of nontechnical performance. Personality traits of our surgical residents are similar and did not predict technical skill. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stochastic goal programming based groundwater remediation management under human-health-risk uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jing; He, Li; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose an integrated optimal groundwater remediation design approach. • The approach can address stochasticity in carcinogenic risks. • Goal programming is used to make the system approaching to ideal operation and remediation effects. • The uncertainty in slope factor is evaluated under different confidence levels. • Optimal strategies are obtained to support remediation design under uncertainty. - Abstract: An optimal design approach for groundwater remediation is developed through incorporating numerical simulation, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis and nonlinear optimization within a general framework. Stochastic analysis and goal programming are introduced into the framework to handle uncertainties in real-world groundwater remediation systems. Carcinogenic risks associated with remediation actions are further evaluated at four confidence levels. The differences between ideal and predicted constraints are minimized by goal programming. The approach is then applied to a contaminated site in western Canada for creating a set of optimal remediation strategies. Results from the case study indicate that factors including environmental standards, health risks and technical requirements mutually affected and restricted themselves. Stochastic uncertainty existed in the entire process of remediation optimization, which should to be taken into consideration in groundwater remediation design

Management of hyperglycemia in type 2 diabetes: evidence and uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Katherine; Gentile, Sandro; Candido, Riccardo; De Micheli, Alberto; Gallo, Marco; Medea, Gerardo; Ceriello, Antonio

2013-05-30

The panoply of treatment algorithms, periodically released to improve guidance, is one mean to face therapeutic uncertainty in pharmacological management of hyperglycemia in type 2 diabetes, especially after metformin failure. Failure of recent guidelines to give advice on the use of specific antidiabetic drugs in patients with co-morbidity may generate further uncertainty, given the frequent association of type 2 diabetes with common comorbidity, including, although not limited to obesity, cardiovascular disease, impaired renal function, and frailty. The Italian Association of Diabetologists (Associazione Medici Diabetologi, AMD) recognized the need to develop personalized treatment plans for people with type 2 diabetes, taking into account the patients' individual profile (phenotype), with the objective of the safest possible glycemic control. As not every subject with type 2 diabetes benefits from intensive glycemic control, flexible regimens of treatment with diabetes drugs (including insulin) are needed for reaching individualized glycemic goals. Whether personalized diabetology will improve the quality healthcare practice of diabetes management is unknown, but specific research has been launched.

Nuclear Reaction Data and Uncertainties for Radiation Damage. Summary Report of the Technical Meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffin, P.J.; Sjöstrand, H.; Simakov, S.P.

2016-08-01

This Meeting was organized to implement the recommendation of the second Research Coordinated Meeting (RCM) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) “Primary Radiation Damage Cross Sections” to analyse the accuracy and consistency of the radiation damage-relevant nuclear data in the major nuclear data evaluations with the eventual goal of identifying the most reliable data and providing quantitative uncertainty estimates. Participants have considered the status of the primary nuclear data, such as reaction recoils spectra in the latest releases of ENDF, JEFF, JENDL, FENDL, ROSFOND and TENDL nuclear data libraries, and the ways of deriving the damage quantities KERMA, NRT- or arc-dpa and gas production cross sections as well as the recipes for an assessment of their uncertainties. This report contains the contemporary view of the Meeting participants on these issues in the form of a consolidated set of statements, recommendations and individual summaries. (author)

A (Creative) Portrait of the Uncertain Individual: Self-Uncertainty and Individualism Enhance Creative Generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Rios, Kimberly; Markman, Keith D; Schroeder, Juliana; Dyczewski, Elizabeth A

2014-08-01

Building on findings that self-uncertainty motivates attempts to restore certainty about the self, particularly in ways that highlight one's distinctiveness from others, we show that self-uncertainty, relative to uncertainty in general, increases creative generation among individualists. In Studies 1 to 3, high (but not low) individualists performed better on a creative generation task after being primed with self-uncertainty as opposed to general uncertainty. In Study 4, this effect emerged only among those who were told that the task measured creative as opposed to analytical thinking, suggesting that the positive effects of self-uncertainty on performance are specific to tasks that bolster perceptions of uniqueness. In Study 5, self-uncertain individualists experienced a restoration of self-clarity after being induced to think about themselves as more (vs. less) creative. Implications for compensatory responses to self-uncertainty and factors that influence creativity are discussed. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Integrated risk - healthy technical conscience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freeman, P. [Institute of Nuclear Power Operations, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2015-07-01

The personal obligation leaders and individuals internalize and exercise to ensure plant operation, maintenance, and engineering activities are conducted in a manner consistent with plant design, emergency response strategies, technical requirements and that preserve operating, design and safety margins. Technical errors are increasing, both in number and significance. Causes are common at many utilities. The majority of these engineering human performance weaknesses have not had immediate impact on station reliability and safety (not self-revealing). In some recent projects, the same weaknesses affected a station's viability.

Evaluation of uncertainties in X radiation metrologic chain in the Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory/IRD-Brazilian CNEN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonseca Coelho, B.C. da.

1987-01-01

The equipment to measure ionizing radiation used in medicine needs appropriate technical qualifications to comply with their purposes and regular calibrations to assure the correct evaluation of associated quantities. By legal requirements, the annual calibration of users' dosemeters is to be done in a Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL), andthe SSDL'S standard dosemeters are refered to a Primary Standard Dosimetry (PSDL), establishing a rigourous metrological network. The SSDL network. The SSDL needs to maintain, regularly, a quality control program for short and Long term stability of standard dosemeters. The purpose of the work was to determine the uncertainties associated to technical procedures of X-rays calibration at the SSDL/IRD/IRD. To evaluate the influence of the nine main parameters that can give origin to uncertainties, specific procedures and methods are established, according to international requirements and recomendations. The methods are based on the comparison of the behaviour of the users' dosemeters, with a standard dosemeter in the many measuring conditions set up for the secondary standard used as a reference. The total uncertainty obtained was 1,81% usig a conservative procedure, to protect the users and patients. When needed to transfer the calibration factor and their uncertainty, the procedure used was to determine the uncertainty under the worsst possible operating conditions of the equipment, to obtain a superestimated value. This represents an excellent result for an SDDL of IAEA Network. (autor) [pt

Hydrocoin level 3 - Testing methods for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grundfelt, B.; Lindbom, B.; Larsson, A.; Andersson, K.

1991-01-01

The HYDROCOIN study is an international cooperative project for testing groundwater hydrology modelling strategies for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The study was initiated in 1984 by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the technical work was finalised in 1987. The participating organisations are regulatory authorities as well as implementing organisations in 10 countries. The study has been performed at three levels aimed at studying computer code verification, model validation and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis respectively. The results from the first two levels, code verification and model validation, have been published in reports in 1988 and 1990 respectively. This paper focuses on some aspects of the results from Level 3, sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, for which a final report is planned to be published during 1990. For Level 3, seven test cases were defined. Some of these aimed at exploring the uncertainty associated with the modelling results by simply varying parameter values and conceptual assumptions. In other test cases statistical sampling methods were applied. One of the test cases dealt with particle tracking and the uncertainty introduced by this type of post processing. The amount of results available is substantial although unevenly spread over the test cases. It has not been possible to cover all aspects of the results in this paper. Instead, the different methods applied will be illustrated by some typical analyses. 4 figs., 9 refs

A retrospective dosimetry method and its uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, L.; Jia, D.; Dai, G.

2000-01-01

The main aim of a radiation epidemiological study is to assess the risk of the population exposed to ionizing radiation. The actual work of the assessment may be very difficult because dose information about the population is often indirect and incomplete. It is very important, therefore, to find a way of estimating reasonable and reliable doses of the population by a retrospective method from limited information. In order to provide reasonable dose information for the cohort study of Chinese medical diagnostic X-ray workers, a retrospective dosimetry method was established. In China, a cohort study of more than 27,000 medical diagnostic X-ray workers, with 25,000 controls, has been carried out for about fifteen years in order to assess the risk to an occupationally exposed population. Obviously, a key to the success of the study is to obtain reliable and reasonable results of dose estimation by the dose reconstruction method. Before 1985, there was a lack of information regarding personal dose measured directly; however, we can obtain other indirect information. Examples are information about working loads from the documents of the hospitals, information about operational conditions of the workers of different statuses by a survey of occupational history, and the exposure levels of various working conditions by some simulation methods. The information for estimating organ dose can also be obtained by simulating experiments with a phantom. Based on the information mentioned above, a mathematical model and computerizing system for dose reconstruction of this occupational population was design and developed. Uncertainty analysis very important for dose reconstruction. The sources of uncertainty of our study are coming from two fields. One is coming from the mode of dose reconstruction. Another is coming from the survey of the occupational history. In the result reported, main results of the uncertainty will be presented. In order to control the uncertainty of the

Inferring Person-to-person Proximity Using WiFi Signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sapiezynski, Piotr; Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Wind, David Kofoed

2017-01-01

scale is a technical challenge and many commonly used approaches—including RFID badges or Bluetooth scanning—offer only limited scalability. Here we show that it is possible, in a scalable and robust way, to accurately infer person-to-person physical proximity from the lists of WiFi access points...... measured by smartphones carried by the two individuals. Based on a longitudinal dataset of approximately 800 participants with ground-truth interactions collected over a year, we show that our model performs better than the current state-of-the-art. Our results demonstrate the value of WiFi signals...

The role of non-technical skills in surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Agha, Riaz A; Fowler, Alexander J; Sevdalis, Nick

2015-12-01

Non-technical skills are of increasing importance in surgery and surgical training. A traditional focus on technical skills acquisition and competence is no longer enough for the delivery of a modern, safe surgical practice. This review discusses the importance of non-technical skills and the values that underpin successful modern surgical practice. This narrative review used a number of sources including written and online, there was no specific search strategy of defined databases. Modern surgical practice requires; technical and non-technical skills, evidence-based practice, an emphasis on lifelong learning, monitoring of outcomes and a supportive institutional and health service framework. Finally these requirements need to be combined with a number of personal and professional values including integrity, professionalism and compassionate, patient-centred care.

The role of non-technical skills in surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Agha, Riaz A.; Fowler, Alexander J.; Sevdalis, Nick

2015-01-01

Non-technical skills are of increasing importance in surgery and surgical training. A traditional focus on technical skills acquisition and competence is no longer enough for the delivery of a modern, safe surgical practice. This review discusses the importance of non-technical skills and the values that underpin successful modern surgical practice. This narrative review used a number of sources including written and online, there was no specific search strategy of defined databases. Modern surgical practice requires; technical and non-technical skills, evidence-based practice, an emphasis on lifelong learning, monitoring of outcomes and a supportive institutional and health service framework. Finally these requirements need to be combined with a number of personal and professional values including integrity, professionalism and compassionate, patient-centred care. PMID:26904193

Understanding uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lindley, Dennis V

2013-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Fricko, Oliver; Meinshausen, Malte; Krey, Volker; Zilliacus, Johanna J. J.; Riahi, Keywan

2017-06-01

The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.

Personal Identity Online

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodogno, Raffaele

2012-01-01

Philosophers concerned with the question of personal identity have typically been asking the so-called re-identification question: what are the conditions under which a person at one point in time is properly re-identified at another point in time? This is a rather technical question. In our...... everyday interactions, however, we do raise a number of personal identity questions that are quite distinct from it. In order to explore the variety of ways in which the Internet may affect personal identity, I propose in this study to broaden the typical philosophical horizon to other more mundane senses...... of the question. In Section 2, I describe a number of possible meanings of personal identity observed in everyday contexts and more philosophical ones. With some caveats, I argue that it is the specific context in which the question arises that disambiguates the meaning of the question. Online contexts are novel...

Uncertainty, Social Location and Influence in Decision Making: A Sociometric Analysis

OpenAIRE

Michael L. Tushman; Elaine Romanelli

1983-01-01

This research investigates the relative impacts of formal status and informal communication roles on influence in administrative and technical decision making. While external information enters the organization via boundary spanning individuals, the exercise of influence at lower levels of the organization is dependent on mediating critical organizational contingencies. As the locus of task uncertainty shifts, so too does the relative influence of boundary spanning individuals and internal st...

Clinical inertia, uncertainty and individualized guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Reach, G

2014-09-01

Doctors often do not follow the guidelines of good practice based on evidence-based medicine, and this "clinical inertia" may represent an impediment to efficient care. The aims of this article are as follows: 1) to demonstrate that this phenomenon is often the consequence of a discrepancy between the technical rationality of evidence-based medicine and the modes of reasoning of physicians practiced in "real-life", which is marked by uncertainty and risk; 2) to investigate in this context the meaning of the recent, somewhat paradoxical, concept of "individualized guidelines"; and 3) to revisit the real, essentially pedagogical, place of guidelines in medical practice. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Approving of personal dosimeter services

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, K.; Malmqvist, L.

2001-09-01

The Swedish regulation SSI FS 98:5 requires that radiological workers of category A use dosemeters from an approved personal dosimetry service. The regulation also includes certain specific dosimeter requirements, which are based on those presented in the Technical Recommendations by the European Commission (Report EUR 14852 EN, 1994). All services have been tested for their ability to determine Hp(10) and some of them to determine Hp(0.07) at one radiation quality. The test was performed in the interval 0.2 mSv to 100 mSv at three different dose equivalents unknown to the system owner. The 11 services operating in Sweden at the moment use 5 different types of dosimeters. The five unique systems have been tested regarding the angular and energy dependence of the response of the dosimeters. The dosimeters were irradiated to a personal dose equivalent of about 1 mSv at three photon energies and at four angles (0, 20, 40 and 60 deg. resp. ) both vertically and horizontally rotated. Only 2 of the services determine Hp(0.07) for beta and gamma radiation and were tested for this quantity. The test results for Hp(10) are all except two within the trumpet curve. For the unique systems it is shown that the uncertainty related to angular response at a specified energy is within the required ±40 % except for the lowest X-ray quality at 40 kV. The response is more dependent on photon energy than on the direction of the photon radiation and the choice of radiation quality for the calibration is of great importance for the system performance

An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2009-01-01

Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

Learning health 'safety' within non-technical skills interprofessional simulation education: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Morris; Fell, Christopher W R; Box, Helen; Farrell, Michael; Stewart, Alison

2017-01-01

Healthcare increasingly recognises and focusses on the phenomena of 'safe practice' and 'patient safety.' Success with non-technical skills (NTS) training in other industries has led to widespread transposition to healthcare education, with communication and teamwork skills central to NTS frameworks. This study set out to identify how the context of interprofessional simulation learning influences NTS acquisition and development of 'safety' amongst learners. Participants receiving a non-technical skills (NTS) safety focussed training package were invited to take part in a focus group interview which set out to explore communication, teamwork, and the phenomenon of safety in the context of the learning experiences they had within the training programme. The analysis was aligned with a constructivist paradigm and took an interactive methodological approach. The analysis proceeded through three stages, consisting of open, axial, and selective coding, with constant comparisons taking place throughout each phase. Each stage provided categories that could be used to explore the themes of the data. Additionally, to ensure thematic saturation, transcripts of observed simulated learning encounters were then analysed. Six themes were established at the axial coding level, i.e., analytical skills, personal behaviours, communication, teamwork, context, and pedagogy. Underlying these themes, two principal concepts emerged, namely: intergroup contact anxiety - as both a result of and determinant of communication - and teamwork, both of which must be considered in relation to context. These concepts have subsequently been used to propose a framework for NTS learning. This study highlights the role of intergroup contact anxiety and teamwork as factors in NTS behaviour and its dissipation through interprofessional simulation learning. Therefore, this should be a key consideration in NTS education. Future research is needed to consider the role of the affective non-technical

Recognizing and responding to uncertainty: a grounded theory of nurses' uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranley, Lisa A; Doran, Diane M; Tourangeau, Ann E; Kushniruk, Andre; Nagle, Lynn

2012-08-01

There has been little research to date exploring nurses' uncertainty in their practice. Understanding nurses' uncertainty is important because it has potential implications for how care is delivered. The purpose of this study is to develop a substantive theory to explain how staff nurses experience and respond to uncertainty in their practice. Between 2006 and 2008, a grounded theory study was conducted that included in-depth semi-structured interviews. Fourteen staff nurses working in adult medical-surgical intensive care units at two teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, participated in the study. The theory recognizing and responding to uncertainty characterizes the processes through which nurses' uncertainty manifested and how it was managed. Recognizing uncertainty involved the processes of assessing, reflecting, questioning, and/or being unable to predict aspects of the patient situation. Nurses' responses to uncertainty highlighted the cognitive-affective strategies used to manage uncertainty. Study findings highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and having collegial support to manage uncertainty. The theory adds to our understanding the processes involved in recognizing uncertainty, strategies and outcomes of managing uncertainty, and influencing factors. Tailored nursing education programs should be developed to assist nurses in developing skills in articulating and managing their uncertainty. Further research is needed to extend, test and refine the theory of recognizing and responding to uncertainty to develop strategies for managing uncertainty. This theory advances the nursing perspective of uncertainty in clinical practice. The theory is relevant to nurses who are faced with uncertainty and complex clinical decisions, to managers who support nurses in their clinical decision-making, and to researchers who investigate ways to improve decision-making and care delivery. ©2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Using the Rosenzweig frustration picture test in the study of coping behaviour in thesituation of uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena N. L’vova

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The paper highlights the relation between the relevance of coping behaviour and increasing interest to phenomena of uncertainty. The reviewing of coping as complicated setting notion including several levels is offered. The relevance of studying conscious and unconscious levels of coping is validated. Using coping questionnaires’ deficit of prognosis validity and the relevancy of using projective methods that are effective and useful in diagnostics of coping’ unconscious components are discussed. Due to the changes in viewing difficult life situations’ range and focusing on subjective perception of difficulties, the frustration situations are reviewed as difficult daily life situations. The Rosenzweig Picture Frustration test could be used for diagnosing coping’ unconscious components that compose meaning set level and coping behaviour basis. The relations among personal characteristics (tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty, noetic orientations, personal anxiety, locus of control and three types and three directions of subjects’ responses in test’ situations were examined, generalized linear models were used. The subjects of the research are 199 teachers from secondary schools of Russian Federation, mean age is 40.6 years old. The results showed significant relations between particular personal characteristics and types and directions of the responses: ego-defense type and tolerance to uncertainty, obstacle-dominance type and personal anxiety, intropunitive direction and personal anxiety, obstacledominance type and noetic orientations. The common discussion of current results and results obtained in previous studies demonstrates potential existence of mediating relations between particular coping strategies and types and directions of subjects’ responses in The Rosenzweig Picture Frustration test.

HTGR reactor physics, thermal-hydraulics and depletion uncertainty analysis: a proposed IAEA coordinated research project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyobeka, Bismark; Reitsma, Frederik; Ivanov, Kostadin

2011-01-01

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The predictive capability of coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics and depletion simulations for reactor design and safety analysis can be assessed with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis methods. In order to benefit from recent advances in modeling and simulation and the availability of new covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) extensive sensitivity and uncertainty studies are needed for quantification of the impact of different sources of uncertainties on the design and safety parameters of HTGRs. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors recommended that the proposed IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling be implemented. In the paper the current status and plan are presented. The CRP will also benefit from interactions with the currently ongoing OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) UAM benchmark activity by taking into consideration the peculiarities of HTGR designs and simulation requirements. (author)

The acceptance of uncertainty - a move towards an 'ecological' concept of law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ladeur, K.H.

1986-01-01

Within the framework of a study investigating the law applied as an instrument of global social steering, the author analyses the acceptance of uncertainty and resulting impacts, taking nuclear energy and the problems involved as the example to illustrate his point. The relationship between the law and social knowledge is first explained against the historical background and then in the light of the regulatory system established for the peaceful use of nuclear energy in accordance with the current scientific knowledge. The author tries to show why the reference to science as a medium of ''certainty and unambigiousness'' did not create the acceptance of nuclear energy one had hoped for. The evolution of the structure of social knowledge, i.e. increasing, awareness of uncertainty, enforces new ways and standards of reflection and enhanced need for consensus, because uncertainty is a problem of evaluating of risks, and cannot be solved by scientific or technical information. (HSCH) [de

Integrated uncertainty analysis using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Wagner, R.; Allison, C.

2009-01-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalunya (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). The integrated uncertainty analysis approach used in the package uses the following steps: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. The first four steps are performed by the user prior to the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 analysis. The remaining steps are included with the MOD4.0 integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package. This paper briefly describes the integrated uncertainty analysis package including (a) the features of the package, (b) the implementation of the package into RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, and

The ultimate uncertainty--intergenerational planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Starr, C

2000-12-01

The philosophic and practical aspects of intergenerational planning for a 50-100-year time frame are reviewed, with recognition of its speculative quality. Society's near term choice of future physical pathways based on comparative quantitative benefit/cost/risk analyses of alternatives is usually modified by the intervention of a variety of time-dependent, nontechnical value systems. Further, the continuous competition among society's disparate technical systems, capital investment choices, and planning objectives all contribute to the uncertainty of the intergenerational outcome of any plan. Nevertheless, the quantitative planning process provides an essential base. Benefit/cost/risk projections are discussed for both the case with a historical database and the case without such a historical base. The end-objectives and continuous nature of such benefit/cost/risk analyses are described.

New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

2016-04-01

Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

Uncertainty in prostate cancer. Ethnic and family patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Germino, B B; Mishel, M H; Belyea, M; Harris, L; Ware, A; Mohler, J

1998-01-01

Prostate cancer occurs 37% more often in African-American men than in white men. Patients and their family care providers (FCPs) may have different experiences of cancer and its treatment. This report addresses two questions: 1) What is the relationship of uncertainty to family coping, psychological adjustment to illness, and spiritual factors? and 2) Are these patterns of relationship similar for patients and their family care givers and for whites and African-Americans? A sample of white and African-American men and their family care givers (N = 403) was drawn from an ongoing study, testing the efficacy of an uncertainty management intervention with men with stage B prostate cancer. Data were collected at study entry, either 1 week after post-surgical catheter removal or at the beginning of primary radiation treatment. Measures of uncertainty, adult role behavior, problem solving, social support, importance of God in one's life, family coping, psychological adjustment to illness, and perceptions of health and illness met standard criteria for internal consistency. Analyses of baseline data using Pearson's product moment correlations were conducted to examine the relationships of person, disease, and contextual factors to uncertainty. For family coping, uncertainty was significantly and positively related to two domains in white family care providers only. In African-American and white family care providers, the more uncertainty experienced, the less positive they felt about treatment. Uncertainty for all care givers was related inversely to positive feelings about the patient recovering from the illness. For all patients and for white family members, uncertainty was related inversely to the quality of the domestic environment. For everyone, uncertainty was related inversely to psychological distress. Higher levels of uncertainty were related to a poorer social environment for African-American patients and for white family members. For white patients and their

Framework of Uncertainty in Medical Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Austin, L; Brodersen, John; Reventlow, Susanne

Historically, medical decisions have primarily involved diagnosis and treatment of symptomatic patients. Increasingly, medical decisions concern uncertain future health states in asymptomatic people. We construct a taxonomy of five medical decision situations that encompasses these wider...... possibilities. For each, we identify potential sources of uncertainty that should be considered when assessing the degree of belief that a person has, or will have, a condition. Decision trees illustrate the normative structure of each situation. The five decision situations involve: 1) assessing...

Determination of a reference value and its uncertainty through a power-moderated mean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pomme, S.; Keightley, J.

2015-01-01

A method is presented for calculating a key comparison reference value (KCRV) and its associated standard uncertainty. The method allows for technical scrutiny of data, correction or exclusion of extreme data, but above all uses a power-moderated mean that can calculate an efficient and robust mean from any data set. For mutually consistent data, the method approaches a weighted mean, the weights being the reciprocals of the variances (squared standard uncertainties) associated with the measured values. For data sets suspected of inconsistency, the weighting is moderated by increasing the laboratory variances by a common amount and/or decreasing the power of the weighting factors. By using computer simulations, it is shown that the PMM is a good compromise between efficiency and robustness, while also providing a realistic uncertainty. The method is of particular interest to data evaluators and organizers of proficiency tests. (authors)

Impulsivity modulates performance under response uncertainty in a reaching task.

Science.gov (United States)

Tzagarakis, C; Pellizzer, G; Rogers, R D

2013-03-01

We sought to explore the interaction of the impulsivity trait with response uncertainty. To this end, we used a reaching task (Pellizzer and Hedges in Exp Brain Res 150:276-289, 2003) where a motor response direction was cued at different levels of uncertainty (1 cue, i.e., no uncertainty, 2 cues or 3 cues). Data from 95 healthy adults (54 F, 41 M) were analysed. Impulsivity was measured using the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale version 11 (BIS-11). Behavioral variables recorded were reaction time (RT), errors of commission (referred to as 'early errors') and errors of precision. Data analysis employed generalised linear mixed models and generalised additive mixed models. For the early errors, there was an interaction of impulsivity with uncertainty and gender, with increased errors for high impulsivity in the one-cue condition for women and the three-cue condition for men. There was no effect of impulsivity on precision errors or RT. However, the analysis of the effect of RT and impulsivity on precision errors showed a different pattern for high versus low impulsives in the high uncertainty (3 cue) condition. In addition, there was a significant early error speed-accuracy trade-off for women, primarily in low uncertainty and a 'reverse' speed-accuracy trade-off for men in high uncertainty. These results extend those of past studies of impulsivity which help define it as a behavioural trait that modulates speed versus accuracy response styles depending on environmental constraints and highlight once more the importance of gender in the interplay of personality and behaviour.

Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnema, B.E.

2002-01-01

This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

Eigenspace perturbations for structural uncertainty estimation of turbulence closure models

Science.gov (United States)

Jofre, Lluis; Mishra, Aashwin; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-11-01

With the present state of computational resources, a purely numerical resolution of turbulent flows encountered in engineering applications is not viable. Consequently, investigations into turbulence rely on various degrees of modeling. Archetypal amongst these variable resolution approaches would be RANS models in two-equation closures, and subgrid-scale models in LES. However, owing to the simplifications introduced during model formulation, the fidelity of all such models is limited, and therefore the explicit quantification of the predictive uncertainty is essential. In such scenario, the ideal uncertainty estimation procedure must be agnostic to modeling resolution, methodology, and the nature or level of the model filter. The procedure should be able to give reliable prediction intervals for different Quantities of Interest, over varied flows and flow conditions, and at diametric levels of modeling resolution. In this talk, we present and substantiate the Eigenspace perturbation framework as an uncertainty estimation paradigm that meets these criteria. Commencing from a broad overview, we outline the details of this framework at different modeling resolution. Thence, using benchmark flows, along with engineering problems, the efficacy of this procedure is established. This research was partially supported by NNSA under the Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program (PSAAP) II, and by DARPA under the Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) project (technical monitor: Dr Fariba Fahroo).

Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

2011-01-01

In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

Uncertainty analysis guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty analysis guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty quantification of CO2 emission reduction for maritime shipping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Jun; Ng, Szu Hui; Sou, Weng Sut

2016-01-01

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recently proposed several operational and technical measures to improve shipping efficiency and reduce the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The abatement potentials estimated for these measures have been further used by many organizations to project future GHG emission reductions and plot Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). However, the abatement potentials estimated for many of these measures can be highly uncertain as many of these measures are new, with limited sea trial information. Furthermore, the abatements obtained are highly dependent on ocean conditions, trading routes and sailing patterns. When the estimated abatement potentials are used for projections, these ‘input’ uncertainties are often not clearly displayed or accounted for, which can lead to overly optimistic or pessimistic outlooks. In this paper, we propose a methodology to systematically quantify and account for these input uncertainties on the overall abatement potential forecasts. We further propose improvements to MACCs to better reflect the uncertainties in marginal abatement costs and total emissions. This approach provides a fuller and more accurate picture of abatement forecasts and potential reductions achievable, and will be useful to policy makers and decision makers in the shipping industry to better assess the cost effective measures for CO 2 emission reduction. - Highlights: • We propose a systematic method to quantify uncertainty in emission reduction. • Marginal abatement cost curves are improved to better reflect the uncertainties. • Percentage reduction probability is given to determine emission reduction target. • The methodology is applied to a case study on maritime shipping.

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Fricko, Oliver; Meinshausen, Malte; Krey, Volker; Zilliacus, Johanna J J; Riahi, Keywan

2017-06-06

The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO 2 e yr -1 . We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.

New strategies for quantifying and propagating nuclear data uncertainty in CUSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Qiang; Zhang, Chunyan; Hao, Chen; Li, Fu; Wang, Dongyong; Yu, Yan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An efficient sampling method based on LHS combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion is proposed. • A code of generating multi-group covariance matrices has been developed. • The uncertainty and sensitivity results of CUSA agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. - Abstract: The uncertainties of nuclear cross sections are propagated to the key parameters of nuclear reactor core through transport calculation. The statistical sampling method can be used to quantify and propagate nuclear data uncertainty in nuclear reactor physics calculations. In order to use statistical sampling method two key technical problems, method of generating multi-group covariance matrices and sampling method, should be considered reasonably and efficiently. In this paper, a method of transforming nuclear cross section covariance matrix in multi-group form into users' group structures based on the flat-flux approximation has been studied in depth. And most notably, an efficient sampling method has been proposed, which is based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion. Based on those method, two modules named T-COCCO and GUIDE have been developed and have been successfully added into the code for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (CUSA). The new modules have been verified respectively. Numerical results for the TMI-1 pin-cell case are presented and compared to TSUNAMI-1D. The comparison of the results further support that the methods and the computational tool developed in this work can be used to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for nuclear cross sections.

New strategies for quantifying and propagating nuclear data uncertainty in CUSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Qiang; Zhang, Chunyan [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); Hao, Chen, E-mail: haochen.heu@163.com [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); Li, Fu [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology(INET), Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Nuclear Energy Technology, Key Laboratory of Advanced Reactor Engineering and Safety of Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, Beijing (China); Wang, Dongyong [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Yu, Yan [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

2016-10-15

Highlights: • An efficient sampling method based on LHS combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion is proposed. • A code of generating multi-group covariance matrices has been developed. • The uncertainty and sensitivity results of CUSA agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. - Abstract: The uncertainties of nuclear cross sections are propagated to the key parameters of nuclear reactor core through transport calculation. The statistical sampling method can be used to quantify and propagate nuclear data uncertainty in nuclear reactor physics calculations. In order to use statistical sampling method two key technical problems, method of generating multi-group covariance matrices and sampling method, should be considered reasonably and efficiently. In this paper, a method of transforming nuclear cross section covariance matrix in multi-group form into users' group structures based on the flat-flux approximation has been studied in depth. And most notably, an efficient sampling method has been proposed, which is based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion. Based on those method, two modules named T-COCCO and GUIDE have been developed and have been successfully added into the code for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (CUSA). The new modules have been verified respectively. Numerical results for the TMI-1 pin-cell case are presented and compared to TSUNAMI-1D. The comparison of the results further support that the methods and the computational tool developed in this work can be used to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for nuclear cross sections.

The role of non-technical skills in surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riaz A. Agha

2015-12-01

This narrative review used a number of sources including written and online, there was no specific search strategy of defined databases. Modern surgical practice requires; technical and non-technical skills, evidence-based practice, an emphasis on lifelong learning, monitoring of outcomes and a supportive institutional and health service framework. Finally these requirements need to be combined with a number of personal and professional values including integrity, professionalism and compassionate, patient-centred care.

Individual uncertainty and the uncertainty of science: The impact of perceived conflict and general self-efficacy on the perception of tentativeness and credibility of scientific information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danny eFlemming

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We examined in two empirical studies how situational and personal aspects of uncertainty influence laypeople’s understanding of the uncertainty of scientific information, with focus on the detection of tentativeness and perception of scientific credibility. In the first study (N = 48, we investigated the impact of a perceived conflict due to contradicting information as a situational, text-inherent aspect of uncertainty. The aim of the second study (N = 61 was to explore the role of general self-efficacy as an intra-personal uncertainty factor. In Study 1, participants read one of two versions of an introductory text in a between-group design. This text provided them with an overview about the neurosurgical procedure of deep brain stimulation (DBS. The text expressed a positive attitude toward DBS in one experimental condition or focused on the negative aspects of this method in the other condition. Then participants in both conditions read the same text that dealt with a study about DBS as experimental treatment in a small sample of patients with major depression. Perceived conflict between the two texts was found to increase the perception of tentativeness and to decrease the perception of scientific credibility, implicating that text-inherent aspects have significant effects on critical appraisal. The results of Study 2 demonstrated that participants with higher general self-efficacy detected the tentativeness to a lesser degree and assumed a higher level of scientific credibility, indicating a more naïve understanding of scientific information. This appears to be contradictory to large parts of previous findings that showed positive effects of high self-efficacy on learning. Both studies showed that perceived tentativeness and perceived scientific credibility of medical information contradicted each other. We conclude that there is a need for supporting laypeople in understanding the uncertainty of scientific information and that

Report of the Education Technical Subcommittee on Food/Beverage Occupations.

Science.gov (United States)

Oregon State Dept. of Education, Salem. Div. of Vocational Education.

Written by a technical committee of persons from industry, professional associations, and labor, as well as persons with special expertise, state officials, and educators in Oregon, this document lists the skills and knowledge required of employees in food and beverage occupations. It also identifies the industry standards (performance objectives)…

Technical publications by JAERI staff in 1999, vol. 33

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-06-01

This list contains 1399 references of JAERI technical reports and JAERI personnel's papers in journals and other publications in 1999. A bibliographic description for each entry consists of title, language, author(s) and source. While JAERI technical reports are sorted by report number, papers-in-journals are arranged by the first author. The personal author index, corporate author index and report number index are included. (author)

Technical publications by JAERI staff in 2000, vol. 34

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-04-01

This list contains 830 references of JAERI technical reports and JAERI personnel's papers in journals and other publications in 2000. A bibliographic description for each entry consists of title, language, author(s) and source. While JAERI technical reports are sorted by report number, papers-in-journals are arranged by the first author. The personal author index, corporate author index and report number index are included. (author)

Code AI Personal Web Pages

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Joseph A.; Smith, Charles A. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

The document consists of a publicly available web site (george.arc.nasa.gov) for Joseph A. Garcia's personal web pages in the AI division. Only general information will be posted and no technical material. All the information is unclassified.

Advanced Approach to Consider Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties for Integral Accident Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peschke, Joerg; Kloos, Martina

2013-01-01

The use of best-estimate codes together with realistic input data generally requires that all potentially important epistemic uncertainties which may affect the code prediction are considered in order to get an adequate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty of the prediction as an expression of the existing imprecise knowledge. To facilitate the performance of the required epistemic uncertainty analyses, methods and corresponding software tools are available like, for instance, the GRS-tool SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis). However, for risk-informed decision-making, the restriction on epistemic uncertainties alone is not enough. Transients and accident scenarios are also affected by aleatory uncertainties which are due to the unpredictable nature of phenomena. It is essential that aleatory uncertainties are taken into account as well, not only in a simplified and supposedly conservative way but as realistic as possible. The additional consideration of aleatory uncertainties, for instance, on the behavior of the technical system, the performance of plant operators, or on the behavior of the physical process provides a quantification of probabilistically significant accident sequences. Only if a safety analysis is able to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a realistic manner, it can provide a well-founded risk-informed answer for decision-making. At GRS, an advanced probabilistic dynamics method was developed to address this problem and to provide a more realistic modeling and assessment of transients and accident scenarios. This method allows for an integral simulation of complex dynamic processes particularly taking into account interactions between the plant dynamics as simulated by a best-estimate code, the dynamics of operator actions and the influence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the GRS method MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for probabilistic dynamics analysis is explained

Quantifying uncertainty in nuclear analytical measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

Laboratories to quantify the uncertainty of measurement results, and the fact that this standard is used as a basis for the development and implementation of quality management systems in many laboratories performing nuclear analytical measurements, triggered the demand for specific guidance to cover uncertainty issues of nuclear analytical methods. The demand was recognized by the IAEA and a series of examples was worked out by a group of consultants in 1998. The diversity and complexity of the topics addressed delayed the publication of a technical guidance report, but the exchange of views among the experts was also beneficial and led to numerous improvements and additions with respect to the initial version. This publication is intended to assist scientists using nuclear analytical methods in assessing and quantifying the sources of uncertainty of their measurements. The numerous examples provide a tool for applying the principles elaborated in the GUM and EURACHEM/CITAC publications to their specific fields of interest and for complying with the requirements of current quality management standards for testing and calibration laboratories. It also provides a means for the worldwide harmonization of approaches to uncertainty quantification and thereby contributes to enhanced comparability and competitiveness of nuclear analytical measurements

Uncertainty in exposure of underground miners to radon daughters and the effect of uncertainty on risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-10-01

Studies of underground miners provide the principal basis for assessing the risk from radon daughter exposure. An important problem in all epidemiological studies of underground miners is the reliability of the estimates of the miners' exposures. This study examines the various sources of uncertainty in exposure estimation for the principal epidemiologic studies reported in the literature including the temporal and spatial variability of radon sources and, with the passage of time, changes to both mining methods and ventilation conditions. Uncertainties about work histories and the role of other hard rock mining experience are also discussed. The report also describes two statistical approaches, both based on Bayesian methods, by which the effects on the estimated risk coefficient of uncertainty in exposure (WLM) can be examined. One approach requires only an estimate of the cumulative WLM exposure of a group of miners, an estimate of the number of (excess) lung cancers potentially attributable to that exposure, and a specification of the uncertainty about the cumulative exposure of the group. The second approach is based on a linear regression model which incorporates errors (uncertainty) in the independent variable (WLM) and allows the dependent variable (cases) to be Poisson distributed. The method permits the calculation of marginal probability distributions for either slope (risk coefficient) or intercept. The regression model approach is applied to several published data sets from epidemiological studies of miners. Specific results are provided for each data set and apparent differences in risk coefficients are discussed. The studies of U.S. uranium miners, Ontario uranium miners and Czechoslovakian uranium miners are argued to provide the best basis for risk estimation at this time. In general terms, none of the analyses performed are inconsistent with a linear exposure-effect relation. Based on analyses of the overall miner groups, the most likely ranges

Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, Lena Sophie

2013-01-01

aquifers. The uncertainties on all three levels are investigated in three approaches with different focus. The concept can also be applied to CO 2 leakage or hazards related to other technologies in the subsurface such as methane storage or atomic waste disposal. In the second part of this thesis, uncertainty studies for two realistic storage formations (the pilot site Ketzin (Germany) and a realistic storage formation in the North German Basin) are performed to investigate the related uncertainties and to reduce them as much as possible. For the Ketzin site, history matching of the measurement data, is an important task for dynamic modeling and essential for future risk assessment. A systematic approach to fit the data set using inverse modeling is presented in this work. For future risk assessment for realistic sites, e.g. for the Ketzin site, the uncertainty studies and the history matching approach provide important information. Finally, CCS is discussed in the context of risk perception and the possible input of the risk assessment concept presented in this work is discussed. This work is a first attempt to connect the technical risk assessment for CO 2 storage to the social science approach for risk assessment. It is bridging the gap between engineering and social sciences by integrating the technical quantification of risk into the wider context of a comprehensive risk governance model.

Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

1999-01-01

The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems

The uncertainty of reference standards--a guide to understanding factors impacting uncertainty, uncertainty calculations, and vendor certifications.

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma

2009-10-01

Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.

Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redei, Miklos

1987-01-01

The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

Measurement Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Michael

Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

Two-point method uncertainty during control and measurement of cylindrical element diameters

Science.gov (United States)

Glukhov, V. I.; Shalay, V. V.; Radev, H.

2018-04-01

The topic of the article is devoted to the urgent problem of the reliability of technical products geometric specifications measurements. The purpose of the article is to improve the quality of parts linear sizes control by the two-point measurement method. The article task is to investigate methodical extended uncertainties in measuring cylindrical element linear sizes. The investigation method is a geometric modeling of the element surfaces shape and location deviations in a rectangular coordinate system. The studies were carried out for elements of various service use, taking into account their informativeness, corresponding to the kinematic pairs classes in theoretical mechanics and the number of constrained degrees of freedom in the datum element function. Cylindrical elements with informativity of 4, 2, 1 and θ (zero) were investigated. The uncertainties estimation of in two-point measurements was made by comparing the results of of linear dimensions measurements with the functional diameters maximum and minimum of the element material. Methodical uncertainty is formed when cylindrical elements with maximum informativeness have shape deviations of the cut and the curvature types. Methodical uncertainty is formed by measuring the element average size for all types of shape deviations. The two-point measurement method cannot take into account the location deviations of a dimensional element, so its use for elements with informativeness less than the maximum creates unacceptable methodical uncertainties in measurements of the maximum, minimum and medium linear dimensions. Similar methodical uncertainties also exist in the arbitration control of the linear dimensions of the cylindrical elements by limiting two-point gauges.

Personal determinants of organic food consumption: a review

OpenAIRE

Aertsens, Joris; Verbeke, Wim; Mondelaers, Koen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2009-01-01

Purpose - A lot of literature is available that discusses personal determinants of organic food consumption. However different models and determinants are used in the literature. This paper aims to provide an overview, within a framework linking Schwartz' values theory and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Also it seeks to focus on the importance of affective attitude, emotions, personal norm, involvement and uncertainty related to organic food consumption. Design/methodology/approac...

Technical publications by JAERI staff in 1997, vol. 31

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-06-01

This list contains 998 references published as JAERI technical reports and selected from JAERI personnel's paper in journals and other publications in 1997. A bibliographic description for each entry consists of title, language, author(s) and source. While JAERI technical reports are sorted by report number, papers-in-journals are arranged by the first author. The personal author index, corporate author index and report number index are included. (author). 998 refs

Technical publications by JAERI staff in 1998, vol. 32

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-06-01

This list contains 1074 references of JAERI technical reports and JAERI personnel's papers in journals and other publications in 1998. A bibliographic description for each entry consists of title, language, author(s) and source. While JAERI technical reports are sorted by report number, papers-in-journals are arranged by the first author. The personal author index, corporate author index and report number index are included. (author). 1074 refs

Model Uncertainties for Valencia RPA Effect for MINERvA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Richard [Univ. of Minnesota, Duluth, MN (United States)

2017-05-08

This technical note describes the application of the Valencia RPA multi-nucleon effect and its uncertainty to QE reactions from the GENIE neutrino event generator. The analysis of MINERvA neutrino data in Rodrigues et al. PRL 116 071802 (2016) paper makes clear the need for an RPA suppression, especially at very low momentum and energy transfer. That published analysis does not constrain the magnitude of the effect; it only tests models with and without the effect against the data. Other MINERvA analyses need an expression of the model uncertainty in the RPA effect. A well-described uncertainty can be used for systematics for unfolding, for model errors in the analysis of non-QE samples, and as input for fitting exercises for model testing or constraining backgrounds. This prescription takes uncertainties on the parameters in the Valencia RPA model and adds a (not-as-tight) constraint from muon capture data. For MINERvA we apply it as a 2D ($q_0$,$q_3$) weight to GENIE events, in lieu of generating a full beyond-Fermi-gas quasielastic events. Because it is a weight, it can be applied to the generated and fully Geant4 simulated events used in analysis without a special GENIE sample. For some limited uses, it could be cast as a 1D $Q^2$ weight without much trouble. This procedure is a suitable starting point for NOvA and DUNE where the energy dependence is modest, but probably not adequate for T2K or MicroBooNE.

Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification Studies Using the S4T Wind Tunnel Model

Science.gov (United States)

Nikbay, Melike; Heeg, Jennifer

2017-01-01

This paper originates from the joint efforts of an aeroelastic study team in the Applied Vehicle Technology Panel from NATO Science and Technology Organization, with the Task Group number AVT-191, titled "Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design." We present aeroelastic uncertainty quantification studies using the SemiSpan Supersonic Transport wind tunnel model at the NASA Langley Research Center. The aeroelastic study team decided treat both structural and aerodynamic input parameters as uncertain and represent them as samples drawn from statistical distributions, propagating them through aeroelastic analysis frameworks. Uncertainty quantification processes require many function evaluations to asses the impact of variations in numerous parameters on the vehicle characteristics, rapidly increasing the computational time requirement relative to that required to assess a system deterministically. The increased computational time is particularly prohibitive if high-fidelity analyses are employed. As a remedy, the Istanbul Technical University team employed an Euler solver in an aeroelastic analysis framework, and implemented reduced order modeling with Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition to perform the uncertainty propagation. The NASA team chose to reduce the prohibitive computational time by employing linear solution processes. The NASA team also focused on determining input sample distributions.

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seitz, R

2008-06-25

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Developing a Systematic Education and Training Approach Using Personal Computer Based Simulators for Nuclear Power Programmes. Proceedings of a Technical Meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2018-01-01

This publication compiles the output and findings of a technical meeting organized by the IAEA. The use of personal computer (PC) based basic principle simulators in education and training is aimed at enhancing understanding of nuclear technologies through “learning by doing”. This hands-on experiential training is highly suitable for operators, maintenance technicians, suppliers, regulators, students and engineers. Experts from 21 Member States, together with IAEA staff, presented the current status of the PC based basic principle simulators, their applications in education and training and identified relevant gaps and needs for improvements and/or new development. The resultant publication includes summaries of the presentations, follow-up discussions as well as conclusions and recommendations for possible future activities.

Technical conservatism in the design and analysis of a nuclear-waste repository in basalt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, K.A.

1982-01-01

The US Department of Energy's National Waste Terminal Storage Program has adopted a policy of technical conservatism to guide the design and analysis of geologic disposal systems for commercial high-level radioactive waste. Technical conservatism serves as the programmatic philosophy for managing uncertainty in the performance of the disposal system. The implementation of technical conservatism as applied to a nuclear waste repository in basalt is discussed. Preliminary assessments of the performance of the waste package, repository, and site subsystems are compared to key proposed regulatory criteria. The comparison shows that there are substantial safety margins in the predicted performance of the nuclear waste repository in basalt

Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

Establishing and maintaining a measurement uncertainty programme at the RPII dosimetry and calibration service

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spain, D.; Currivan, L.; Fitzgerald, H.; Pollard, D.

2005-01-01

Full text: At the Dosimetry and Calibration Service of the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland (RPII) approximately 70,000 thermoluminescent dosemeters (TLDs) are issued each year to monitor occupationally exposed workers in Ireland. In addition the service offers a calibration service for radiation survey meters, contamination monitors and electronic personal dosemeters. In order to meet the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty of measurement using well defined concepts and to maintain an up to date estimate. In this work it is shown how the measurement uncertainty in the Dosimetry and Calibration Service has been estimated. When estimating the uncertainty of measurement, all uncertainty components which are of importance in the given situation are taken into account. The combined uncertainty of the system is determined by considering a number of systematic and random errors. The analysis will include assumptions made and these have been documented and justified. Components of uncertainty were determined in accordance with such documents as IEC 61066, Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, and the National Physical Laboratory Measurement Good Practice Guide No. 11, as appropriate. Results of intercomparisons are also presented, which adds confidence to the uncertainty estimate. Although a great deal of work is involved is estimating uncertainty in both laboratories it is felt that a reasonable estimate of measurement uncertainty has been achieved given the available information. Furthermore, in keeping with the laboratory's commitment to continuous improvement, it is necessary to evaluate periodically the measurement uncertainties associated with the relevant procedures and a programme for the future is outlined. (author)

Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish

2005-05-11

Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

[Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee

2015-04-01

This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.

Statistical methods in personality assessment research.

Science.gov (United States)

Schinka, J A; LaLone, L; Broeckel, J A

1997-06-01

Emerging models of personality structure and advances in the measurement of personality and psychopathology suggest that research in personality and personality assessment has entered a stage of advanced development, in this article we examine whether researchers in these areas have taken advantage of new and evolving statistical procedures. We conducted a review of articles published in the Journal of Personality, Assessment during the past 5 years. Of the 449 articles that included some form of data analysis, 12.7% used only descriptive statistics, most employed only univariate statistics, and fewer than 10% used multivariate methods of data analysis. We discuss the cost of using limited statistical methods, the possible reasons for the apparent reluctance to employ advanced statistical procedures, and potential solutions to this technical shortcoming.

Assessing the Feasibility of Managed Aquifer Recharge for Irrigation under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Arshad

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Additional storage of water is a potential option to meet future water supply goals. Financial comparisons are needed to improve decision making about whether to store water in surface reservoirs or below ground, using managed aquifer recharge (MAR. In some places, the results of cost-benefit analysis show that MAR is financially superior to surface storage. However, uncertainty often exists as to whether MAR systems will remain operationally effective and profitable in the future, because the profitability of MAR is dependent on many uncertain technical and financial variables. This paper introduces a method to assess the financial feasibility of MAR under uncertainty. We assess such uncertainties by identification of cross-over points in break-even analysis. Cross-over points are the thresholds where MAR and surface storage have equal financial returns. Such thresholds can be interpreted as a set of minimum requirements beyond which an investment in MAR may no longer be worthwhile. Checking that these thresholds are satisfied can improve confidence in decision making. Our suggested approach can also be used to identify areas that may not be suitable for MAR, thereby avoiding expensive hydrogeological and geophysical investigations.

Final Technical Report: Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knio, Omar M. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science

2017-06-06

QUEST is a SciDAC Institute comprising Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, University of Southern California, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University. The mission of QUEST is to: (1) develop a broad class of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods/tools, and (2) provide UQ expertise and software to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling/guiding their UQ activities. The Duke effort focused on the development of algorithms and utility software for non-intrusive sparse UQ representations, and on participation in the organization of annual workshops and tutorials to disseminate UQ tools to the community, and to gather input in order to adapt approaches to the needs of SciDAC customers. In particular, fundamental developments were made in (a) multiscale stochastic preconditioners, (b) gradient-based approaches to inverse problems, (c) adaptive pseudo-spectral approximations, (d) stochastic limit cycles, and (e) sensitivity analysis tools for noisy systems. In addition, large-scale demonstrations were performed, namely in the context of ocean general circulation models.

Final Technical Report: Mathematical Foundations for Uncertainty Quantification in Materials Design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plechac, Petr [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States); Vlachos, Dionisios G. [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States)

2018-01-23

We developed path-wise information theory-based and goal-oriented sensitivity analysis and parameter identification methods for complex high-dimensional dynamics and in particular of non-equilibrium extended molecular systems. The combination of these novel methodologies provided the first methods in the literature which are capable to handle UQ questions for stochastic complex systems with some or all of the following features: (a) multi-scale stochastic models such as (bio)chemical reaction networks, with a very large number of parameters, (b) spatially distributed systems such as Kinetic Monte Carlo or Langevin Dynamics, (c) non-equilibrium processes typically associated with coupled physico-chemical mechanisms, driven boundary conditions, hybrid micro-macro systems, etc. A particular computational challenge arises in simulations of multi-scale reaction networks and molecular systems. Mathematical techniques were applied to in silico prediction of novel materials with emphasis on the effect of microstructure on model uncertainty quantification (UQ). We outline acceleration methods to make calculations of real chemistry feasible followed by two complementary tasks on structure optimization and microstructure-induced UQ.

Suggested technical scheme to help resolve regulatory issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harvey, T.

1978-07-01

A management-planning model envisioned as a useful tool for planning and guiding the development of a nuclear waste repository data base is described. It incorporates the technical assessment goals and objectives of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and it provides a strategy for reaching them. The model strategy includes provisions for the breadth, timeliness, and defensibility of its predictions. Consideration is given to observational data, its structure, and future refinements. The structure of the data is consistent with the needs of a systems model whose structure is proposed to resolve questions about repository safety. Uncertainties are categorized as an aid in defining and resolving technical issues. The model provides a framework for ultimately exposing all the sensitive and controversial factors. Some quantitative aspects of data acquisition are presented. 12 figures.

Suggested technical scheme to help resolve regulatory issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, T.

1978-07-01

A management-planning model envisioned as a useful tool for planning and guiding the development of a nuclear waste repository data base is described. It incorporates the technical assessment goals and objectives of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and it provides a strategy for reaching them. The model strategy includes provisions for the breadth, timeliness, and defensibility of its predictions. Consideration is given to observational data, its structure, and future refinements. The structure of the data is consistent with the needs of a systems model whose structure is proposed to resolve questions about repository safety. Uncertainties are categorized as an aid in defining and resolving technical issues. The model provides a framework for ultimately exposing all the sensitive and controversial factors. Some quantitative aspects of data acquisition are presented. 12 figures

Uncertainties must be expected. Stochastic methods support power plant control; Mit Unsicherheiten ist zu rechnen. Stochastische Methoden unterstuetzen Kraftwerkssteuerung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Syben, Olaf; Dehery, Francois-Regis [ProCom GmbH, Aachen (Germany)

2012-07-01

Uncertainties must be considered for successful portfolio management in the energy markets. This is not only a structural aspect of the increasingly complex interdependences between raw materials, technical assets and economic considerations but also covers the distortion of degrees of freedom in time, which require ever faster decision processes. Stochastic methods make it possible to judge uncertainties even in complex planning problems. Integration of the mathematical methods in an efficient IT environment ensures that a verifiable decision basis is available at any time. (orig./AKB)

UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF EQUATION OF STATE MODELS

KAUST Repository

Weirs, V. Gregory; Fabian, Nathan; Potter, Kristin; McNamara, Laura; Otahal, Thomas

2013-01-01

In this paper we present the results from a series of focus groups on the visualization of uncertainty in equation-of-state (EOS) models. The initial goal was to identify the most effective ways to present EOS uncertainty to analysts, code developers, and material modelers. Four prototype visualizations were developed to present EOS surfaces in a three-dimensional, thermodynamic space. Focus group participants, primarily from Sandia National Laboratories, evaluated particular features of the various techniques for different use cases and discussed their individual workflow processes, experiences with other visualization tools, and the impact of uncertainty on their work. Related to our prototypes, we found the 3D presentations to be helpful for seeing a large amount of information at once and for a big-picture view; however, participants also desired relatively simple, two-dimensional graphics for better quantitative understanding and because these plots are part of the existing visual language for material models. In addition to feedback on the prototypes, several themes and issues emerged that are as compelling as the original goal and will eventually serve as a starting point for further development of visualization and analysis tools. In particular, a distributed workflow centered around material models was identified. Material model stakeholders contribute and extract information at different points in this workflow depending on their role, but encounter various institutional and technical barriers which restrict the flow of information. An effective software tool for this community must be cognizant of this workflow and alleviate the bottlenecks and barriers within it. Uncertainty in EOS models is defined and interpreted differently at the various stages of the workflow. In this context, uncertainty propagation is difficult to reduce to the mathematical problem of estimating the uncertainty of an output from uncertain inputs.

Quantifying uncertainty and trade-offs in resilience assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig R. Allen

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Several frameworks have been developed to assess the resilience of social-ecological systems, but most require substantial data inputs, time, and technical expertise. Stakeholders and practitioners often lack the resources for such intensive efforts. Furthermore, most end with problem framing and fail to explicitly address trade-offs and uncertainty. To remedy this gap, we developed a rapid survey assessment that compares the relative resilience of social-ecological systems with respect to a number of resilience properties. This approach generates large amounts of information relative to stakeholder inputs. We targeted four stakeholder categories: government (policy, regulation, management, end users (farmers, ranchers, landowners, industry, agency/public science (research, university, extension, and NGOs (environmental, citizen, social justice in four North American watersheds, to assess social-ecological resilience through surveys. Conceptually, social-ecological systems are comprised of components ranging from strictly human to strictly ecological, but that relate directly or indirectly to one another. They have soft boundaries and several important dimensions or axes that together describe the nature of social-ecological interactions, e.g., variability, diversity, modularity, slow variables, feedbacks, capital, innovation, redundancy, and ecosystem services. There is no absolute measure of resilience, so our design takes advantage of cross-watershed comparisons and therefore focuses on relative resilience. Our approach quantifies and compares the relative resilience across watershed systems and potential trade-offs among different aspects of the social-ecological system, e.g., between social, economic, and ecological contributions. This approach permits explicit assessment of several types of uncertainty (e.g., self-assigned uncertainty for stakeholders; uncertainty across respondents, watersheds, and subsystems, and subjectivity in

Instrument uncertainty predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coutts, D.A.

1991-07-01

The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

2015-04-01

Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

Application of RELAP/SCDAPSIM with integrated uncertainty options to research reactor systems thermal hydraulic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allison, C.M.; Hohorst, J.K.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.

2010-01-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with advanced programming and numerical techniques and other SDTP-member modeling/user options. One such member developed option is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). This paper briefly summarizes the features of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 and the integrated uncertainty analysis package, and then presents an example of how the integrated uncertainty package can be setup and used for a simple pipe flow problem. (author)

Examining Dark Triad traits in relation to sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabouri, Sarah; Gerber, Markus; Lemola, Sakari; Becker, Stephen P; Shamsi, Mahin; Shakouri, Zeinab; Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Kalak, Nadeem; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2016-07-01

The Dark Triad (DT) describes a set of three closely related personality traits, Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. A total of 341 adults (M=29years) completed a series of questionnaires related to the DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. A higher DT total score was associated with increased sleep disturbances, and higher scores for anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. In regression analyses Machiavellianism and psychopathy were predictors of sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. Results indicate that specific DT traits, namely Machiavellianism and psychopathy, are associated with sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage in geological formations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walter, Lena Sophie

2013-07-01

drinking water aquifers. The uncertainties on all three levels are investigated in three approaches with different focus. The concept can also be applied to CO{sub 2} leakage or hazards related to other technologies in the subsurface such as methane storage or atomic waste disposal. In the second part of this thesis, uncertainty studies for two realistic storage formations (the pilot site Ketzin (Germany) and a realistic storage formation in the North German Basin) are performed to investigate the related uncertainties and to reduce them as much as possible. For the Ketzin site, history matching of the measurement data, is an important task for dynamic modeling and essential for future risk assessment. A systematic approach to fit the data set using inverse modeling is presented in this work. For future risk assessment for realistic sites, e.g. for the Ketzin site, the uncertainty studies and the history matching approach provide important information. Finally, CCS is discussed in the context of risk perception and the possible input of the risk assessment concept presented in this work is discussed. This work is a first attempt to connect the technical risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage to the social science approach for risk assessment. It is bridging the gap between engineering and social sciences by integrating the technical quantification of risk into the wider context of a comprehensive risk governance model.

The Social Engineering Personality Framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uebelacker, Sven; Quiel, Susanne

We explore ICT security in a socio-technical world and focus in particular on the susceptibility to social engineering attacks. We pursue the question if and how personality traits influence this susceptibility. This allows us to research human factors and their potential impact on the physical and

Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupleac, D.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Allison, C.

2011-01-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dupleac, D., E-mail: danieldu@cne.pub.ro [Politehnica Univ. of Bucharest (Romania); Perez, M.; Reventos, F., E-mail: marina.perez@upc.edu, E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu [Technical Univ. of Catalonia (Spain); Allison, C., E-mail: iss@cableone.net [Innovative Systems Software (United States)

2011-07-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

Visualization of uncertainties and forecast skill in user-tailored seasonal climate predictions for agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Gubler, Stefanie; Spierig, Christoph; Flubacher, Moritz; Maurer, Felix; Quevedo, Karim; Escajadillo, Yury; Avalos, Griña; Liniger, Mark A.; Schwierz, Cornelia

2017-04-01

Seasonal climate forecast products potentially have a high value for users of different sectors. During the first phase (2012-2015) of the project CLIMANDES (a pilot project of the Global Framework for Climate Services led by WMO [http://www.wmo.int/gfcs/climandes]), a demand study conducted with Peruvian farmers indicated a large interest in seasonal climate information for agriculture. The study further showed that the required information should by precise, timely, and understandable. In addition to the actual forecast, two complex measures are essential to understand seasonal climate predictions and their limitations correctly: forecast uncertainty and forecast skill. The former can be sampled by using an ensemble of climate simulations, the latter derived by comparing forecasts of past time periods to observations. Including uncertainty and skill information in an understandable way for end-users (who are often not technically educated) poses a great challenge. However, neglecting this information would lead to a false sense of determinism which could prove fatal to the credibility of climate information. Within the second phase (2016-2018) of the project CLIMANDES, one goal is to develop a prototype of a user-tailored seasonal forecast for the agricultural sector in Peru. In this local context, the basic education level of the rural farming community presents a major challenge for the communication of seasonal climate predictions. This contribution proposes different graphical presentations of climate forecasts along with possible approaches to visualize and communicate the associated skill and uncertainties, considering end users with varying levels of technical knowledge.

Uncertainty and measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landsberg, P.T.

1990-01-01

This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

Sensitivity of Personal Account Accumulated Value of New Rural Social Pension Insurance to Variation of Uncertainties

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2012-01-01

The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive influence on the payment level of personal account pension.The personal account accumulated value has a direct or indirect relationship with the income level of farmers,premium-paying level,the insured period,investment return rate of funds and other factors.Analysing the impact of infinitesimal variation of these factors on accumulated value of personal account pension,is of great significance to improving and consolidating personal account,and achieving sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance.

A new mathematical programming model for long-term production scheduling considering geological uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Gholamnejad, J.; Moosavi, E.

2012-01-01

Determination of the optimum production schedules over the life of a mine is a critical mechanism in open pit mine planning procedures. Long-term production scheduling is used to maximize the net present value of the project under technical, financial, and environmental constraints. Mathematical programming models are well suited for optimizing long-term production schedules of open pit mines. There are two approaches to solving long-term production problems: deterministic- and uncertainty- b...

41 CFR 105-64.108 - How does GSA safeguard personal information?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... personal information? 105-64.108 Section 105-64.108 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management Regulations System (Continued) GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION Regional Offices-General... GSA safeguard personal information? (a) System managers will establish administrative, technical, and...

Estabilishing requirements for the next generation of pressurized water reactors--reducing the uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chernock, W.P.; Corcoran, W.R.; Rasin, W.H.; Stahlkopf, K.E.

1987-01-01

The Electric Power Research Institute is managing a major effort to establish requirements for the next generation of U.S. light water reactors. This effort is the vital first step in preserving the viability of the nuclear option to contribute to meet U.S. national electric power capacity needs in the next century. Combustion Engineering, Inc. and Duke Power Company formed a team to participate in the EPRI program which is guided by a Utility Steering committee consisting of experienced utility technical executives. A major thrust of the program is to reduce the uncertainties which would be faced by the utility executives in choosing the nuclear option. The uncertainties to be reduced include those related to safety, economic, operational, and regulatory aspects of advanced light water reactors. This paper overviews the Requirements Document program as it relates to the U.S. Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) effort in reducing these uncertainties and reports the status of efforts to establish requirements for the next generation of pressurized water reactors. It concentrates on progress made in reducing the uncertainties which would deter selection of the nuclear option for contributing to U.S. national electric power capacity needs in the next century and updates previous reports in the same area. (author)

Solar UV exposure among outdoor workers in Denmark measured with personal UV-B dosimeters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grandahl, Kasper; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Sherman, David Zim

2017-01-01

radiation exposure are needed to help resolve this problem. This can be done using personal ultraviolet radiation dosimeters. Methods: We consider technical and practical feasibility of measuring individual solar ultraviolet exposure at work and leisure in professions with different á priori temporal high......-level outdoor worktime, using aluminium gallium nitride (AlGaN) photodiode detector based personal UV-B dosimeters. Essential technical specifications including the spectral and angular responsivity of the dosimeters are described and pre-campaign dosimeter calibration applicability is verified. The scale...... with our specialist knowledge as occupational physicians. Conclusions: Large-scale use of personal UV-B dosimeters for measurement of solar ultraviolet radiation exposure at work and leisure in Denmark is indeed feasible from a technical and practical viewpoint. Samples of exposure data shown support...

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

A Software module for pointwise calibration of free form objevts and for uncertainty representation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Savio, Enrico; Farmer, A.F.; De Chiffre, Leonardo

. The Centre for Geometrical Metrology (CGM) at the Technical University of Denmark takes care of free form measurements, in collaboration with DIMEG, University of Padova, Italy. The present report describes a software module, MULTICAL, to be used for the calibration of free form objects. The purpose...... of the software is to calculate the uncertainty of free form measurements according to the method described in the draft standard ISO/WD 15530-6....

Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shield, Stephen Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dai, Zhenxue [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-08-18

Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.

Adaptability: How Students' Responses to Uncertainty and Novelty Predict Their Academic and Non-Academic Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Andrew J.; Nejad, Harry G.; Colmar, Susan; Liem, Gregory Arief D.

2013-01-01

Adaptability is defined as appropriate cognitive, behavioral, and/or affective adjustment in the face of uncertainty and novelty. Building on prior measurement work demonstrating the psychometric properties of an adaptability construct, the present study investigates dispositional predictors (personality, implicit theories) of adaptability, and…

Correlations of hopelessness with motivation and personality traits among Japanese school children.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiomi, K

1995-06-01

Correlations for 628 children in Grades 2, 4, 5, and 6 of scores on hopelessness with measures of motivation for learning and personality traits were investigated. Hopelessness scores significantly correlated with lower scores on motivation. Also, hopelessness scores were significantly correlated with scores on personality traits of schizothymia, nervousness, and self-uncertainty.

Uncertainty in social dilemmas

OpenAIRE

Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

2007-01-01

This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

Uncertainty theory

CERN Document Server

Liu, Baoding

2015-01-01

When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

Personal protective equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This Practical Radiation Technical Manual is one of a series that has been designed to provide guidance on radiological protection for employers, radiation protection officers, managers and other technically competent persons who have responsibility for ensuring the safety of employees working with ionizing radiation. The Manual may be used with the appropriate IAEA Practical Radiation Safety Manuals to provide training, instruction and information for all employees engaged in work with ionizing radiation. Personal protective equipment (PPE) includes clothing or other special equipment that is issued to individual workers to provide protection against actual or potential exposure to ionizing radiations. It is used to protect each worker against the prevailing risk of external or internal exposure in circumstances in which it is not reasonably practicable to provide complete protection by means of engineering controls or administrative methods. Adequate personal protection depends on PPE being correctly selected, fitted and maintained. Appropriate training for the users and arrangements to monitor usage are also necessary to ensure that PPE provides the intended degree of protection effectively. This Manual explains the principal types of PPE, including protective clothing and respiratory protective equipment (RPE). Examples of working procedures are also described to indicate how PPE should be used within a safe system of work. The Manual will be of most benefit if it forms part of a more comprehensive training programme or is supplemented by the advice of a qualified expert in radiation protection. Some of the RPE described in this Manual should be used under the guidance of a qualified expert

Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

Science.gov (United States)

Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

2015-08-01

The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

Moving Beyond 2% Uncertainty: A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

2017-03-08

Remote sensing of wind using lidar is revolutionizing wind energy. However, current generations of wind lidar are ascribed a climatic value of uncertainty, which is based on a poor description of lidar sensitivity to external conditions. In this presentation, we show how it is important to consider the complete lidar measurement process to define the measurement uncertainty, which in turn offers the ability to define a much more granular and dynamic measurement uncertainty. This approach is a progression from the 'white box' lidar uncertainty method.

Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens

more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column......, the developed methodology can be used to quantify the sensitivity of process design to uncertainties in property estimates; obtain rationally the risk/safety factors in process design; and identify additional experimentation needs in order to reduce most critical uncertainties....

4. International reservoir characterization technical conference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-04-01

This volume contains the Proceedings of the Fourth International Reservoir Characterization Technical Conference held March 2-4, 1997 in Houston, Texas. The theme for the conference was Advances in Reservoir Characterization for Effective Reservoir Management. On March 2, 1997, the DOE Class Workshop kicked off with tutorials by Dr. Steve Begg (BP Exploration) and Dr. Ganesh Thakur (Chevron). Tutorial presentations are not included in these Proceedings but may be available from the authors. The conference consisted of the following topics: data acquisition; reservoir modeling; scaling reservoir properties; and managing uncertainty. Selected papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology database.

UNCERTAINTY AND ORIENTATION TOWARDS ERRORS IN TIMES OF CRISIS. THE IMPORTANCE OF BUILDING CONFIDENCE, ENCOURAGING COLLECTIVE EFFICACY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen Tabernero

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The current economic crisis is triggering a new scenario of uncertainty, which is affecting the organizational behavior of individuals and working teams. In contexts of uncertainty, organizational performance suffers a significant decline—workers are faced with the perceived threat of job loss, individuals distrust their organization and perceive that they must compete with their peers. This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on both performance and the affective states of workers, as well as the cognitive, affective and personality strategies (goals and error orientation to cope with uncertainty as either learning pportunities or as situations to be avoided. Moreover, this paper explores gender differences in both coping styles in situations of uncertainty and the results of a training program based on error affect inoculation in which positive emotional responses were emphasized. Finally, we discuss the relevance of generating practices and experiences of team cooperation that build trust and promote collective efficacy in work teams.

Technical writing versus technical writing

Science.gov (United States)

Dillingham, J. W.

1981-01-01

Two terms, two job categories, 'technical writer' and 'technical author' are discussed in terms of industrial and business requirements and standards. A distinction between 'technical writing' and technical 'writing' is made. The term 'technical editor' is also considered. Problems inherent in the design of programs to prepare and train students for these jobs are discussed. A closer alliance between industry and academia is suggested as a means of preparing students with competent technical communication skills (especially writing and editing skills) and good technical skills.

Intelligent Personal Supercomputer for Solving Scientific and Technical Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khimich, O.M.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available New domestic intellіgent personal supercomputer of hybrid architecture Inparkom_pg for the mathematical modeling of processes in the defense industry, engineering, construction, etc. was developed. Intelligent software for the automatic research and tasks of computational mathematics with approximate data of different structures was designed. Applied software to provide mathematical modeling problems in construction, welding and filtration processes was implemented.

Risks, doubt, scientific and technical expert appraisement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decrop, G.

1993-01-01

In complex systems which compose modern societies, expert report is going to take an increasing place. In its usual definition, expert is justified by a superior authority, his knowledge comes from experience, he is present as a third party where he has to work. It is often forgotten two other important points, connected with the situation: it is a tangling of technical or natural systems with a social system and above all there is a risk of uncertainty. Then, the job of expert is different from scientific work done in laboratories and different from operational work done by engineers

Inferring Person-to-person Proximity Using WiFi Signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sapiezynski, Piotr; Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Wind, David Kofoed

2017-01-01

phone towers, Bluetooth beacons, and WiFi networks as proxies for location. However, while mobility is an important aspect of human behavior, understanding complex social systems requires studying not only the movement of individuals, but also their interactions. Sensing social interactions on a large...... scale is a technical challenge and many commonly used approaches—including RFID badges or Bluetooth scanning—offer only limited scalability. Here we show that it is possible, in a scalable and robust way, to accurately infer person-to-person physical proximity from the lists of WiFi access points...... measured by smartphones carried by the two individuals. Based on a longitudinal dataset of approximately 800 participants with ground-truth interactions collected over a year, we show that our model performs better than the current state-of-the-art. Our results demonstrate the value of WiFi signals...

Results from the Application of Uncertainty Methods in the CSNI Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glaeser, H.

2008-01-01

Within licensing procedures there is the incentive to replace the conservative requirements for code application by a - best estimate - concept supplemented by an uncertainty analysis to account for predictive uncertainties of code results. Methods have been developed to quantify these uncertainties. The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced -best estimate- thermal-hydraulic codes. Most of the methods identify and combine input uncertainties. The major differences between the predictions of the methods came from the choice of uncertain parameters and the quantification of the input uncertainties, i.e. the wideness of the uncertainty ranges. Therefore, suitable experimental and analytical information has to be selected to specify these uncertainty ranges or distributions. After the closure of the Uncertainty Method Study (UMS) and after the report was issued comparison calculations of experiment LSTF-SB-CL-18 were performed by University of Pisa using different versions of the RELAP 5 code. It turned out that the version used by two of the participants calculated a 170 K higher peak clad temperature compared with other versions using the same input deck. This may contribute to the differences of the upper limit of the uncertainty ranges.

Information Seeking in Uncertainty Management Theory: Exposure to Information About Medical Uncertainty and Information-Processing Orientation as Predictors of Uncertainty Management Success.

Science.gov (United States)

Rains, Stephen A; Tukachinsky, Riva

2015-01-01

Uncertainty management theory outlines the processes through which individuals cope with health-related uncertainty. Information seeking has been frequently documented as an important uncertainty management strategy. The reported study investigates exposure to specific types of medical information during a search, and one's information-processing orientation as predictors of successful uncertainty management (i.e., a reduction in the discrepancy between the level of uncertainty one feels and the level one desires). A lab study was conducted in which participants were primed to feel more or less certain about skin cancer and then were allowed to search the World Wide Web for skin cancer information. Participants' search behavior was recorded and content analyzed. The results indicate that exposure to two health communication constructs that pervade medical forms of uncertainty (i.e., severity and susceptibility) and information-processing orientation predicted uncertainty management success.

Stakeholder-driven multi-attribute analysis for energy project selection under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Read, Laura; Madani, Kaveh; Mokhtari, Soroush; Hanks, Catherine

2017-01-01

In practice, selecting an energy project for development requires balancing criteria and competing stakeholder priorities to identify the best alternative. Energy source selection can be modeled as multi-criteria decision-maker problems to provide quantitative support to reconcile technical, economic, environmental, social, and political factors with respect to the stakeholders' interests. Decision making among these complex interactions should also account for the uncertainty present in the input data. In response, this work develops a stochastic decision analysis framework to evaluate alternatives by involving stakeholders to identify both quantitative and qualitative selection criteria and performance metrics which carry uncertainties. The developed framework is illustrated using a case study from Fairbanks, Alaska, where decision makers and residents must decide on a new source of energy for heating and electricity. We approach this problem in a five step methodology: (1) engaging experts (role players) to develop criteria of project performance; (2) collecting a range of quantitative and qualitative input information to determine the performance of each proposed solution according to the selected criteria; (3) performing a Monte-Carlo analysis to capture uncertainties given in the inputs; (4) applying multi-criteria decision-making, social choice (voting), and fallback bargaining methods to account for three different levels of cooperation among the stakeholders; and (5) computing an aggregate performance index (API) score for each alternative based on its performance across criteria and cooperation levels. API scores communicate relative performance between alternatives. In this way, our methodology maps uncertainty from the input data to reflect risk in the decision and incorporates varying degrees of cooperation into the analysis to identify an optimal and practical alternative. - Highlights: • We develop an applicable stakeholder-driven framework for

Conditional uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

2018-04-01

We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

Reduction of uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seo, Jeong Moon; Choun, Young Sun; Choi, In Kil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

1999-02-01

An integrated research for the reduction of conservatism and uncertainties in PSHA in Korea was performed. The research consisted of five technical task areas as follows; Task 1: Earthquake Catalog Development for PSHA. Task 2: Evaluation of Seismicity and Tectonics of the Korea Region. Task 3: Development of a Ground Motion Relationships. Task 4: Improvement of PSHA Modelling Methodology. Task 5: Development of Seismic Source Interpretations for the region of Korea for Inputs to PSHA. A series of tests on an ancient wooden house and an analysis on medium size earthquake in Korea were performed intensively. Signification improvement, especially in the estimation of historical earthquake, ground motion attenuation, and seismic source interpretations, were made through this study. 314 refs., 180 figs., 54 tabs. (Author)

Tolerance to uncertainty in the context of social support:gender specificity in the youth environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry V. Lifintsev

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a study of social support for young males and females, and also its relationship with tolerance of uncertainty. A series of psychodiagnostic tools were used to study gender determinants of social support, tolerance of uncertainty and interpersonal intolerance in young people with different levels of emotional and instrumental support. Young males and females aged 18–22 years with a high level of tolerance of uncertainty are susceptible to various forms of social support. The ability to accept uncertainty, to function in the system of unclear interpersonal communication and to act in the face of changing circumstances determine the level of satisfaction with social support in the participants. The research (N=165 confirmed the assumption that first and foremost social support as a communicative phenomenon has differences in the perception of emotional forms in young males and females. Secondly, the specific features of person functioning in the social supporting act system are interrelated, including the level of tolerance of uncertainty. Thirdly, social support can reduce human state of uncertainty and eventually neutralize the negative impact of stressful events. The human ability to «see and discover» the social support, be sensitive and attentive to the supporting acts of social environment has a close relationship with the ability to accept uncertainty and maintain stability in a state of discomfort if any.

Evaluation of uncertainties in MUF for a LWR fuel fabrication plant. Pt.2 - Pt.4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mennerdahl, D.

1984-09-01

MUF (Material Unaccounted For) is a parameter defined as the estimated loss of materials during a certain period of time. A suitable method for uncertainty and bias estimations has been developed. The method was specifically adjusted for a facility like the ASEA-ATOM fuel fabrication plant. Operations that are expected to contribute to the uncertainties have been compiled. Information that is required for the application of the developed method is described. Proposals for simplification of the required information without losing the accuracy are suggested. ASEA-ATOM had earlier determined uncertainty data for the scales that are used for nuclear materials. The statistical uncertainties included random errors, short-term and long-term systematic errors. Information for the determination of biases was also determined (constants and formulas). The method proposed by ASEA-ATOM for the determination of uncertainties due to the scales is compatible with the method proposed in this report. For other operations than weighing, the information from ASEA-ATOM is limited. Such operations are completely dominating the total uncertainty in MUF. Examples of calculations of uncertainties and bias are given for uranium oxide powders in large containers. Examples emphasize the differences between various statistical errors (random and systematic errors) and biases (known errors). The importance of correlations between different items in the inventories is explained. A specific correlation of great importance is the use of nominal factors (uranium concentration). A portable personal computer can be used to determine uncertainties in MUF. (author)

The Psychosocial Integration of Seropositive Persons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matei Raluca

2017-05-01

Full Text Available We can assume without fail that the psychosocial implications in case of HIV/AIDS are as overwhelming as the medical aspects. For the positive person as well as for those who assist the seropositive people, the uncertainty frames the medical prognosis. All the effects that occur are entirely funded: the loss of self-trust as well as mistrusting others, stigmatization, isolation, getting abandoned by the family, friends, neighbors and school mates or coworkers. The current study aims to evaluate this aspect, the fact that the living environment of the seropositive person does not lead to significant differences as far as adjusting to HIV/AIDS diagnosis is concerned, but the adjusting differences are more related to the personality structure of the infected person, to the way this person identifies strategies of coping with the new situations he / she has to deal with (cognitive, emotional and behavioral strategies. In the applicative part of the study, we analyze the adjustment to the diagnosis, as well as the adherence to the treatment, by applying certain specific work instruments.

Illness Uncertainty and Posttraumatic Stress in Young Adults With Congenital Heart Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreland, Patricia; Santacroce, Sheila Judge

2018-03-29

Young adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) are at risk for chronic illness uncertainty in 4 domains: ambiguity about the state of their illness; lack of information about the disease, its treatment, and comorbidities; complexity of the healthcare system and relationship with healthcare providers; and unpredictability of the illness course and outcome. Chronic uncertainty has been associated with posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The aims of this study were to explore how young adults with CHD experience uncertainty and to describe the relationship between PTSS and the appraisal and management process. An exploratory, mixed methods design was used. Data were collected in person and via Skype from 25 participants (19-35 years old), who were diagnosed with CHD during childhood and able to read and write English. In-depth interviews and the University of California at Los Angeles Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Reaction Index were used to collect data. Qualitative data were analyzed using the constant comparative method. The 4 domains of uncertainty were evident in the narratives. The PTSD mean (SD) score was 31.3 (7.7). Six participants met criteria for PTSD. Narrative analysis revealed a relationship between severity of PTSS and the appraisal and management of uncertainty. Participants with PTSD used management strategies that included avoidance, reexperiencing, and hyperarousal. Young adults with CHD may be at risk for the development of long-term psychological stress and PTSD in the setting of chronic uncertainty. Regular monitoring to identify PTSS/PTSD may be a means to promote treatment adherence and participation in healthcare.

32 CFR 310.13 - Safeguarding personal information.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

.... (a) General responsibilities. DoD Components shall establish appropriate administrative, technical..., the sensitivity of the personal information stored, the storage medium used and, to a degree, the... automated environment (see appendix A). (5) Tailor safeguards specifically to the vulnerabilities of the...

Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faisal eMushtaq

2011-10-01

Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

Still Elegantly Muddling Through? NICE and Uncertainty in Decision Making About the Rationing of Expensive Medicines in England.

Science.gov (United States)

Calnan, Michael; Hashem, Ferhana; Brown, Patrick

2017-07-01

This article examines the "technological appraisals" carried out by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence as it regulates the provision of expensive new drugs within the English National Health Service on cost-effectiveness grounds. Ostensibly this is a highly rational process by which the regulatory mechanisms absorb uncertainty, but in practice, decision making remains highly complex and uncertain. This article draws on ethnographic data-interviews with a range of stakeholders and decision makers (n = 41), observations of public and closed appraisal meetings, and documentary analysis-regarding the decision-making processes involving three pharmaceutical products. The study explores the various ways in which different forms of uncertainty are perceived and tackled within these Single Technology Appraisals. Difficulties of dealing with the various levels of uncertainty were manifest and often rendered straightforward decision making problematic. Uncertainties associated with epistemology, procedures, interpersonal relations, and technicality were particularly evident. The need to exercise discretion within a more formal institutional framework shaped a pragmatic combining of strategies tactics-explicit and informal, collective and individual-to navigate through the layers of complexity and uncertainty in making decisions.

Uncertainty and approximate reasoning in waste pretreatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agnew, S.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.

1998-01-01

Waste pretreatment process planning within the DOE complex must consider many different outcomes in order to perform the tradeoffs necessary to accomplish this important national mission. One of the difficulties encountered by many who assess these tradeoffs is that the complexity of this problem taxes the abilities of any single person or small group of individuals. For example, uncertainties in waste composition as well as process efficiency are well known yet incompletely considered in the search for optimum solutions. This paper describes a tool, the pre-treatment Process Analysis Tool (PAT), for evaluating tank waste pretreatment options at Hanford, Oak Ridge, Idaho National Environmental and Engineering Laboratory, and Savannah River Sites. The PAT propagates uncertainty in both tank waste composition and process partitioning into a set of ten outcomes. These outcomes are, for example, total cost, Cs-137 in iLAW, iHLW MT, and so on. Tradeoffs among outcomes are evaluated or scored by means of an approximate reasoning module that uses linguistic bases to evaluate tradeoffs for each process based on user valuations of outcomes

Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in sampling based nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwermann, W.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Gallner, L.; Klein, M.; Pautz, A.; Velkov, K.

2012-01-01

Sampling based uncertainty and sensitivity analyses due to epistemic input uncertainties, i.e. to an incomplete knowledge of uncertain input parameters, can be performed with arbitrary application programs to solve the physical problem under consideration. For the description of steady-state particle transport, direct simulations of the microscopic processes with Monte Carlo codes are often used. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty, the aleatoric sampling uncertainty, which is due to the randomness of the simulation process performed by sampling, and which adds to the total combined output sampling uncertainty. So far, this aleatoric part of uncertainty is minimized by running a sufficiently large number of Monte Carlo histories for each sample calculation, thus making its impact negligible as compared to the impact from sampling the epistemic uncertainties. Obviously, this process may cause high computational costs. The present paper shows that in many applications reliable epistemic uncertainty results can also be obtained with substantially lower computational effort by performing and analyzing two appropriately generated series of samples with much smaller number of Monte Carlo histories each. The method is applied along with the nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity code package XSUSA in combination with the Monte Carlo transport code KENO-Va to various critical assemblies and a full scale reactor calculation. It is shown that the proposed method yields output uncertainties and sensitivities equivalent to the traditional approach, with a high reduction of computing time by factors of the magnitude of 100. (authors)

Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2004-01-01

This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

Fundamental uncertainty limit of optical flow velocimetry according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas

2016-11-01

Optical flow velocity measurements are important for understanding the complex behavior of flows. Although a huge variety of methods exist, they are either based on a Doppler or a time-of-flight measurement principle. Doppler velocimetry evaluates the velocity-dependent frequency shift of light scattered at a moving particle, whereas time-of-flight velocimetry evaluates the traveled distance of a scattering particle per time interval. Regarding the aim of achieving a minimal measurement uncertainty, it is unclear if one principle allows to achieve lower uncertainties or if both principles can achieve equal uncertainties. For this reason, the natural, fundamental uncertainty limit according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is derived for Doppler and time-of-flight measurement principles, respectively. The obtained limits of the velocity uncertainty are qualitatively identical showing, e.g., a direct proportionality for the absolute value of the velocity to the power of 32 and an indirect proportionality to the square root of the scattered light power. Hence, both measurement principles have identical potentials regarding the fundamental uncertainty limit due to the quantum mechanical behavior of photons. This fundamental limit can be attained (at least asymptotically) in reality either with Doppler or time-of-flight methods, because the respective Cramér-Rao bounds for dominating photon shot noise, which is modeled as white Poissonian noise, are identical with the conclusions from Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

Career and Technical Education Secondary Female Teachers: Leadership Attributes

Science.gov (United States)

White, Tedra H.; Smith, Bettye P.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the leadership attributes, professional characteristics, and personal characteristics of secondary female teachers in career and technical education program areas of agriculture, business, family and consumer sciences, healthcare science, marketing, and technology. This study included 179 female secondary…

The applies specific technical requirements to the services of radiological protection according to the 17025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marrero Garcia, M.; Fernandez Gomez, I. M.; Prendes Alonso, M.; Molina Perez, D.

2004-07-01

The employment in the Center of Radiation Protection and Hygiene (CRPH) of Cuba, of the standard 17025 for the administration of the quality of the calibration laboratories and test that offer services of radiological protection requires of a technical complement to really determine the technical competence. In the standard 17025, the specific requirements, are mentioned in the annex B (with informative character), where it points out that: {sup T}he requirements specified in the standard 17025 are established in general terms and, although they can be applied to all the test laboratories and applications, they could be necessary applications{sup .} In the CRPH these applications are translated in indispensable technical requirements to evaluate the performance of the services of radiological protection that offers, specifically those of personal monitoring, the calibration of instruments and the metrology of radionuclides. Although the standard 17025 is quite rigorous in the evaluation of technical requirements, to have specific materials not serves alone of tool to the laboratories, but also for the body of accreditation . In the CRPH the permanent employment of this tool has not constituted a practice, but had been good before our clients certain nonconformities to evaluate the performance of the laboratory and to achieve the recovery of the trust in its results. With this work we seek to expose some of these experiences. The experiences of the application of some of the technical requirements, in our case, they have been applied to the service of personal monitoring that offers the Laboratory of Personal Dosimetry. This laboratory is accredited by the National Accreditation Board of the Republic of Cuba (NABC) and besides fulfilling that settled down in 17025, the Approaches of Accreditation for test laboratories and calibration and it should also implant that settled down as specific technical requirements for the recognition of technical competence. (Author

Applications of Decisions under Uncertainty in the Case of Omniasig-Life Insurance S.A.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stelian STANCU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty is given because we don’t know the nature state event. The company can only estimate the demand of policies in order to estimate the received premiums. If the insurance company doesn’t choose correctly the alternative and the number and the damages will be greater then what it was estimated, then it will come to the point of not being able to pay all the damages. Because of the adverse selection, the insurer meets uncertainty in every day life. It is well known the fact that persons who have a higher risk of producing the insured event, they also have a higher inclination towards contracting insurance.

Technical Standards for Nursing Education Programs in the 21st Century.

Science.gov (United States)

Ailey, Sarah H; Marks, Beth

The Institute of Medicine (2000, 2002) exposed serious safety problems in the health system and called for total qualitative system change. The Institute of Medicine (2011, 2015) also calls for improving the education of nurses to provide leadership for a redesigned health system. Intertwined with improving education is the need to recruit and retain diverse highly qualified students. Disability is part of diversity inclusion, but current technical standards (nonacademic requirements) for admission to many nursing programs are a barrier to the entry of persons with disabilities. Rehabilitation nurse leaders are in a unique position to improve disability diversity in nursing. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the importance of disability diversity in nursing. The history of existing technical standards used in many nursing programs is reviewed along with examples. On the basis of the concept that disability inclusion is a part of diversity inclusion, we propose a new model of technical standards for nursing education. Rehabilitation nurse leaders can lead in eliminating barriers to persons with disabilities entering nursing.

Assuring measurement quality in person-centred healthcare

Science.gov (United States)

Pendrill, L. R.

2018-03-01

Is it realistic to aspire to the same kind of quality-assurance of measurement in person-centred care, currently being implemented in healthcare globally, as is established in the physical sciences and engineering? Ensuring metrological comparability (‘traceability’) and reliably declaring measurement uncertainty when assessing patient ability or increased social capital are however challenging for subjective measurements often characterised by large dispersion. Drawing simple analogies between ‘instruments’ in the social sciences—questionnaires, ability tests, etc—and engineering instruments such as thermometers does not go far enough. A possible way forward, apparently equally applicable to both physical and social measurement, seems to be to model inferences in terms of performance metrics of a measurement system. Person-centred care needs person-centred measurement and a full picture of the measurement process when man acts as a measurement instrument is given in the present paper. This complements previous work by presenting the process, step by step, from the observed indication (e.g. probability of success, P success, of achieving a task), through restitution with Rasch measurement theory, to the measurand (e.g. task difficulty). Rasch invariant measure theory can yield quantities—‘latent’ (or ‘explanatory’) variables such as task challenge or person ability—with characteristics akin to those of physical quantities. Metrological references for comparability via traceability and reliable estimates of uncertainty and decision risks are then in reach even for perceptive measurements (and other qualitative properties). As a case study, the person-centred measurement of cognitive ability is examined, as part of the EU project EMPIR 15HLT04 NeuroMet, for Alzheimer’s, where better analysis of correlations with brain atrophy is enabled thanks to the Rasch metrological approach.

A Variation on Uncertainty Principle and Logarithmic Uncertainty Principle for Continuous Quaternion Wavelet Transforms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mawardi Bahri

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The continuous quaternion wavelet transform (CQWT is a generalization of the classical continuous wavelet transform within the context of quaternion algebra. First of all, we show that the directional quaternion Fourier transform (QFT uncertainty principle can be obtained using the component-wise QFT uncertainty principle. Based on this method, the directional QFT uncertainty principle using representation of polar coordinate form is easily derived. We derive a variation on uncertainty principle related to the QFT. We state that the CQWT of a quaternion function can be written in terms of the QFT and obtain a variation on uncertainty principle related to the CQWT. Finally, we apply the extended uncertainty principles and properties of the CQWT to establish logarithmic uncertainty principles related to generalized transform.

Calibration of a tertiary standard in N-ISO qualities for radioprotection and personal dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rojas, Enrique; Seminario, Lizet

2013-01-01

Dosimetric calibration of radiation monitors and personal dosimeters in different radiological quantities are performed in order to obtain accurate measurements, for this reason the SSDL calculates the dosimetry calibration factor and its associated uncertainty, for each range of use. The calibration factor is performed using the known radiation field method and its uncertainty is calculated according to the ISO recommendations. The SSDL calculates the expanded uncertainty (U c ) with a coverage factor that provides a level of not less than 95 % of confidence. (authors).

On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2016-05-24

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

Case study on the use of PSA methods: Assessment of technical specifications for the reactor protection system instrumentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

This case study presents a methodology for the probabilistic evaluation of alternative plant technical specifications regarding system surveillance frequencies and out-of-service times. The methodology is applied to the reactor protection systems of a 4 loop BWR-RESAR-3S type nuclear power plant. The effect of the statistical characteristics of the system on the relative comparison of various sets of technical specifications is examined through sensitivity studies and an uncertainty analysis. Refs, figs and tabs

Teaching e-Commerce Personalization Technology: The Need for a Comprehensive View

Science.gov (United States)

Sicilia, Miguel-Angel

2005-01-01

Personalization technology has become an important topic in e-commerce, fostered by the emergence of the relationship-marketing paradigm. But teaching e-commerce personalization technology is a challenging task, since it requires a balance between marketing and management and technical implementation issues that must be calibrated according to the…

Decision-making under great uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, S.O.

1992-01-01

Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)

Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.

2012-02-01

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon

DS02 uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

2005-01-01

In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

1995-01-01

Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software

Application of a Novel Dose-Uncertainty Model for Dose-Uncertainty Analysis in Prostate Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Hosang; Palta, Jatinder R.; Kim, You-Hyun; Kim, Siyong

2010-01-01

Purpose: To analyze dose uncertainty using a previously published dose-uncertainty model, and to assess potential dosimetric risks existing in prostate intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials: The dose-uncertainty model provides a three-dimensional (3D) dose-uncertainty distribution in a given confidence level. For 8 retrospectively selected patients, dose-uncertainty maps were constructed using the dose-uncertainty model at the 95% CL. In addition to uncertainties inherent to the radiation treatment planning system, four scenarios of spatial errors were considered: machine only (S1), S1 + intrafraction, S1 + interfraction, and S1 + both intrafraction and interfraction errors. To evaluate the potential risks of the IMRT plans, three dose-uncertainty-based plan evaluation tools were introduced: confidence-weighted dose-volume histogram, confidence-weighted dose distribution, and dose-uncertainty-volume histogram. Results: Dose uncertainty caused by interfraction setup error was more significant than that of intrafraction motion error. The maximum dose uncertainty (95% confidence) of the clinical target volume (CTV) was smaller than 5% of the prescribed dose in all but two cases (13.9% and 10.2%). The dose uncertainty for 95% of the CTV volume ranged from 1.3% to 2.9% of the prescribed dose. Conclusions: The dose uncertainty in prostate IMRT could be evaluated using the dose-uncertainty model. Prostate IMRT plans satisfying the same plan objectives could generate a significantly different dose uncertainty because a complex interplay of many uncertainty sources. The uncertainty-based plan evaluation contributes to generating reliable and error-resistant treatment plans.

[Multilevel analysis of the technical efficiency of hospitals in the Spanish National Health System by property and type of management].

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Romero, Carmen; Ortega-Díaz, M Isabel; Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Martín-Martín, José Jesús

2018-05-11

To analyze technical efficiency by type of property and management of general hospitals in the Spanish National Health System (2010-2012) and identify hospital and regional explanatory variables. 230 hospitals were analyzed combining data envelopment analysis and fixed effects multilevel linear models. Data envelopment analysis measured overall, technical and scale efficiency, and the analysis of explanatory factors was performed using multilevel models. The average rate of overall technical efficiency of hospitals without legal personality is lower than hospitals with legal personality (0.691 and 0.876 in 2012). There is a significant variability in efficiency under variable returns (TE) by direct, indirect and mixed forms of management. The 29% of the variability in TE es attributable to the Region. Legal personality increased the TE of the hospitals by 11.14 points. On the other hand, most of the forms of management (different to those of the traditional hospitals) increased TE in varying percentages. At regional level, according to the model considered, insularity and average annual income per household are explanatory variables of TE. Having legal personality favours technical efficiency. The regulatory and management framework of hospitals, more than public or private ownership, seem to explain technical efficiency. Regional characteristics explain the variability in TE. Copyright © 2018 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-01-01

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

Communicating uncertainties in earth sciences in view of user needs

Science.gov (United States)

de Vries, Wim; Kros, Hans; Heuvelink, Gerard

2014-05-01

Uncertainties are inevitable in all results obtained in the earth sciences, regardless whether these are based on field observations, experimental research or predictive modelling. When informing decision and policy makers or stakeholders, it is important that these uncertainties are also communicated. In communicating results, it important to apply a "Progressive Disclosure of Information (PDI)" from non-technical information through more specialised information, according to the user needs. Generalized information is generally directed towards non-scientific audiences and intended for policy advice. Decision makers have to be aware of the implications of the uncertainty associated with results, so that they can account for it in their decisions. Detailed information on the uncertainties is generally intended for scientific audiences to give insight in underlying approaches and results. When communicating uncertainties, it is important to distinguish between scientific results that allow presentation in terms of probabilistic measures of uncertainty and more intrinsic uncertainties and errors that cannot be expressed in mathematical terms. Examples of earth science research that allow probabilistic measures of uncertainty, involving sophisticated statistical methods, are uncertainties in spatial and/or temporal variations in results of: • Observations, such as soil properties measured at sampling locations. In this case, the interpolation uncertainty, caused by a lack of data collected in space, can be quantified by e.g. kriging standard deviation maps or animations of conditional simulations. • Experimental measurements, comparing impacts of treatments at different sites and/or under different conditions. In this case, an indication of the average and range in measured responses to treatments can be obtained from a meta-analysis, summarizing experimental findings between replicates and across studies, sites, ecosystems, etc. • Model predictions due to

The International Linear Collider Technical Design Report - Volume 3.I: Accelerator R&D in the Technical Design Phase

CERN Document Server

Adolphsen, Chris; Barish, Barry; Buesser, Karsten; Burrows, Philip; Carwardine, John; Clark, Jeffrey; Durand, Hélène Mainaud; Dugan, Gerry; Elsen, Eckhard; Enomoto, Atsushi; Foster, Brian; Fukuda, Shigeki; Gai, Wei; Gastal, Martin; Geng, Rongli; Ginsburg, Camille; Guiducci, Susanna; Harrison, Mike; Hayano, Hitoshi; Kershaw, Keith; Kubo, Kiyoshi; Kuchler, Victor; List, Benno; Liu, Wanming; Michizono, Shinichiro; Nantista, Christopher; Osborne, John; Palmer, Mark; Paterson, James McEwan; Peterson, Thomas; Phinney, Nan; Pierini, Paolo; Ross, Marc; Rubin, David; Seryi, Andrei; Sheppard, John; Solyak, Nikolay; Stapnes, Steinar; Tauchi, Toshiaki; Toge, Nobu; Walker, Nicholas; Yamamoto, Akira; Yokoya, Kaoru

2013-01-01

The International Linear Collider Technical Design Report (TDR) describes in four volumes the physics case and the design of a 500 GeV centre-of-mass energy linear electron-positron collider based on superconducting radio-frequency technology using Niobium cavities as the accelerating structures. The accelerator can be extended to 1 TeV and also run as a Higgs factory at around 250 GeV and on the Z0 pole. A comprehensive value estimate of the accelerator is give, together with associated uncertainties. It is shown that no significant technical issues remain to be solved. Once a site is selected and the necessary site-dependent engineering is carried out, construction can begin immediately. The TDR also gives baseline documentation for two high-performance detectors that can share the ILC luminosity by being moved into and out of the beam line in a "push-pull" configuration. These detectors, ILD and SiD, are described in detail. They form the basis for a world-class experimental programme that promises to incr...

Professional Excellence Beyond Technical Competence

CERN Document Server

Rossiter, Alan P

2008-01-01

The training path for engineers focuses intensely on scientific and technical knowledge. Yet, our professional and personal satisfaction and success also depend on other traits that make us more effective and productive. In this thought-provoking book, Alan Rossiter provides practical guidance in developing the skills to become more effective in your work, while also balancing your life. It is invaluable reading for graduating college students and young professionals as well as seasoned practitioners who find that work is becoming all-consuming.

Uncertainties in surface mass and energy flux estimates due to different eddy covariance sensors and technical set-up

Science.gov (United States)

Arriga, Nicola; Fratini, Gerardo; Forgione, Antonio; Tomassucci, Michele; Papale, Dario

2010-05-01

Eddy covariance is a well established and widely used methodology for the measurement of turbulent fluxes of mass and energy in the atmospheric boundary layer, in particular to estimate CO2/H2O and heat exchange above ecologically relevant surfaces (Aubinet 2000, Baldocchi 2003). Despite its long term application and theoretical studies, many issues are still open about the effect of different experimental set-up on final flux estimates. Open issues are the evaluation of the performances of different kind of sensors (e.g. open path vs closed path infra-red gas analysers, vertical vs horizontal mounting ultrasonic anemometers), the quantification of the impact of corresponding physical corrections to be applied to get robust flux estimates taking in account all processes concurring to the measurement (e.g. the so-called WPL term, signal attenuation due to air sampling system for closed path analyser, relative position of analyser and anemometer) and the differences between several data transmission protocols used (analogue, digital RS-232, SDM). A field experiment was designed to study these issues using several instruments among those most used within the Fluxnet community and to compare their performances under conditions supposed to be critical: rainy and cold weather conditions for open-path analysers (Burba 2008), water transport and absorption at high air relative humidity conditions for closed-path systems (Ibrom, 2007), frequency sampling limits and recorded data robustness due to different transmission protocols (RS232, SDM, USB, Ethernet) and finally the effect of the displacement between anemometer and analyser using at least two identical analysers placed at different horizontal and vertical distances from the anemometer. Aim of this experiment is to quantify the effect of several technical solutions on the final estimates of fluxes measured at a point in the space and if they represent a significant source of uncertainty for mass and energy cycle

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

2017-12-01

Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

Kid's Privacy on the Internet : Collecting Children's Personal Data on the Internet and the Protection of Privacy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nouwt, J.

2002-01-01

The children of today are growing up with the Internet. At the same time, there is a lot of uncertainty and ignorance about collecting personal data from children on the Internet, for example for direct marketing purposes. There is also much uncertainty and ignorance about the applicability of data

The International Linear Collider Technical Design Report - Volume 3.I: Accelerator \\& in the Technical Design Phase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adolphsen, Chris [SLAC National Accelerator Lab., Menlo Park, CA (United States); et al.

2013-06-26

The International Linear Collider Technical Design Report (TDR) describes in four volumes the physics case and the design of a 500 GeV centre-of-mass energy linear electron-positron collider based on superconducting radio-frequency technology using Niobium cavities as the accelerating structures. The accelerator can be extended to 1 TeV and also run as a Higgs factory at around 250 GeV and on the Z0 pole. A comprehensive value estimate of the accelerator is give, together with associated uncertainties. It is shown that no significant technical issues remain to be solved. Once a site is selected and the necessary site-dependent engineering is carried out, construction can begin immediately. The TDR also gives baseline documentation for two high-performance detectors that can share the ILC luminosity by being moved into and out of the beam line in a "push-pull" configuration. These detectors, ILD and SiD, are described in detail. They form the basis for a world-class experimental programme that promises to increase significantly our understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the evolution of the Universe.

Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-03-19

This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

Stochastic Systems Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation

CERN Document Server

Grigoriu, Mircea

2012-01-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of both properties of physical systems and the inputs to these systems that needs to be quantified for cost effective and reliable designs. The states of these systems satisfy equations with random entries, referred to as stochastic equations, so that they are random functions of time and/or space. The solution of stochastic equations poses notable technical difficulties that are frequently circumvented by heuristic assumptions at the expense of accuracy and rigor. The main objective of Stochastic Systems is to promoting the development of accurate and efficient methods for solving stochastic equations and to foster interactions between engineers, scientists, and mathematicians. To achieve these objectives Stochastic Systems presents: ·         A clear and brief review of essential concepts on probability theory, random functions, stochastic calculus, Monte Carlo simulation, and functional analysis   ·          Probabilistic models for random variables an...

CERN Technical Training 2005: "Introduction to ANSYS"

CERN Multimedia

Davide Vitè

2005-01-01

Course Session (28.6 - 1.7.2005) The following course session is scheduled in the framework of the CERN Technical Training Programme 2005, and in collaboration with CAD-FEM AG (CH): Introduction to ANSYS (course in English): 28.6 - 1.7.2005 (4 days, 6 places available, estimated cost: approx. 1'200.- CHF per person). The price quoted above may vary, depending on the number of confirmed participants. If you are interested in attending the above course session, please discuss with your supervisor and/or your DTO, and apply electronically via EDH from the course description pages that can be found at http://www.cern.ch/TechnicalTraining/ under "Places Available", with the detailed course programmes. Due to the short notice, please send at the same time an e-mail to Technical.Training@cern.ch, announcing your registration. The complete training offer of ANSYS courses at CERN can be found at the same website, in the Mechanical Design curriculum, Finite Element Methods section. Organiser: Davide Vit&egr...

Stress From Uncertainty and Resilience Among Depressed and Burned Out Residents: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpkin, Arabella L; Khan, Alisa; West, Daniel C; Garcia, Briana M; Sectish, Theodore C; Spector, Nancy D; Landrigan, Christopher P

2018-03-07

Depression and burnout are highly prevalent among residents, but little is known about modifiable personality variables, such as resilience and stress from uncertainty, that may predispose to these conditions. Residents are routinely faced with uncertainty when making medical decisions. To determine how stress from uncertainty is related to resilience among pediatric residents and whether these attributes are associated with depression and burnout. We surveyed 86 residents in pediatric residency programs from 4 urban freestanding children's hospitals in North America in 2015. Stress from uncertainty was measured with the use of the Physicians' Reaction to Uncertainty Scale, resilience with the use of the 14-item Resilience Scale, depression with the use of the Harvard National Depression Screening Scale; and burnout with the use of single-item measures of emotional exhaustion and depersonalization from the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Fifty out of 86 residents responded to the survey (58.1%). Higher levels of stress from uncertainty correlated with lower resilience (r = -0.60; P resilience (56.6 ± 10.7 vs 85.4 ± 8.0; P resilience (76.7 ± 14.8 vs 85.0 ± 9.77; P = .02) compared with residents who were not burned out. We found high levels of stress from uncertainty, and low levels of resilience were strongly correlated with depression and burnout. Efforts to enhance tolerance of uncertainty and resilience among residents may provide opportunities to mitigate resident depression and burnout. Copyright © 2018 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

2017-10-01

A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

Stereo-particle image velocimetry uncertainty quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Vlachos, Pavlos P; Charonko, John J

2017-01-01

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are subject to multiple elemental error sources and thus estimating overall measurement uncertainty is challenging. Recent advances have led to a posteriori uncertainty estimation methods for planar two-component PIV. However, no complete methodology exists for uncertainty quantification in stereo PIV. In the current work, a comprehensive framework is presented to quantify the uncertainty stemming from stereo registration error and combine it with the underlying planar velocity uncertainties. The disparity in particle locations of the dewarped images is used to estimate the positional uncertainty of the world coordinate system, which is then propagated to the uncertainty in the calibration mapping function coefficients. Next, the calibration uncertainty is combined with the planar uncertainty fields of the individual cameras through an uncertainty propagation equation and uncertainty estimates are obtained for all three velocity components. The methodology was tested with synthetic stereo PIV data for different light sheet thicknesses, with and without registration error, and also validated with an experimental vortex ring case from 2014 PIV challenge. Thorough sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relative impact of the various parameters to the overall uncertainty. The results suggest that in absence of any disparity, the stereo PIV uncertainty prediction method is more sensitive to the planar uncertainty estimates than to the angle uncertainty, although the latter is not negligible for non-zero disparity. Overall the presented uncertainty quantification framework showed excellent agreement between the error and uncertainty RMS values for both the synthetic and the experimental data and demonstrated reliable uncertainty prediction coverage. This stereo PIV uncertainty quantification framework provides the first comprehensive treatment on the subject and potentially lays foundations applicable to volumetric

Interplay among Technical, Socio-Emotional and Personal Factors in Written Feedback Research

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, Ivan

2018-01-01

The centrality of written feedback is clearly seen from the proliferation of research in the context of higher education. As an increasingly expanding field in research, the majority of written feedback studies have been interested in investigating the technical aspect of how feedback should be given in order to promote student learning. More…

Report format preferences of technical managers and nonmanagers

Science.gov (United States)

Pinelli, T. E.; Cordle, V. M.; Glassman, M.; Vondran, R. F., Jr.

1984-01-01

A survey of engineers and scientists concerning the format of NASA technical reports indicates that a summary as well as an abstract should be included, that the definitions of symbols and glossary of terms should be located in the front of the report, and that the illustrative material should be integrated with the text rather than grouped at the end of the report. Citation of references by number, one-column, ragged-right-margin layout, and third-person writing style are also preferred by a majority of the respondents. The preferences of managers and nonmanagers are very similar for all aspects of technical report format covered by the survey.

Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chojnacki, Eric

2002-01-01

After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

Practical reason in a technical culture. 90 years of VGB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gethmann, Carl Friedrich

2010-01-01

Speech on the occasion of the VGB Congress ''Power Plants 2010'' and the 90th anniversary of VGB. Considerations on the practical reason in a technical culture are ethical considerations. It must be realised that new technology has resulted in new types of conflicts: a tightened situation of acting in an environment of uncertainty, increased problems related to unequal distribution. In order to cope with these new problems, no new ethics is required but an ethical reflection on these problems. (orig.)

Personality Traits and Learning Styles of Secondary School Students in Serbia

Science.gov (United States)

Djigic, Gordana; Stojiljkovic, Snežana; Markovic, Andrijana

2016-01-01

This paper is concerned with the personality dimensions and learning styles of secondary school students, attending grammar and technical vocational school. The aim of the study is to examine differences in personality traits and learning styles between students from these types of schools, as well as to determine the predictive power of…

Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aini, M.S.; Chan, S.C.; Syuhaily, O.

2013-01-01

Energy conservation can be achieved through the adoption of technical measures or the changing of one's behaviour. A survey of 201 Malaysian public personnel was conducted to examine the predictors of these two types of transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the relative acceptability of both behavioural measures with respect to gender, level of education, income, knowledge of climate change and attitude. Gender, knowledge of causes of climate change and personal norm were predictors for the acceptability of technical measures, while perceived efficacy and personal norm were the factors that influenced the acceptability of behavioural measures. The results also indicated that distinctions ought to be made between technology adoption and behaviour modifications that require lifestyle changes when assessing pro-environmental intent behaviour. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. - Highlights: • A survey was conducted to examine acceptability of transport energy-saving measures. • Gender, knowledge of causes, efficacy and personal norm are predictors of technical measures. • Personal norm and perceived efficacy influenced acceptability of behavioural change. • Both measures are strongly correlated to psychological factors than to socio-demographic variables

Constructive processes in person cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiedler, K

1993-12-01

The notion of constructive memory processes is imported from research on eyewitness memory to the area of social cognition. Mere questioning about the applicability of personality attributes to a target person is shown to affect subsequent memory-based judgements of that person. These constructive influences are to be distinguished, conceptually, from the global notion of priming effects. In Expt 1, the target person was first described as an extravert; afterwards, subjects had to indicate whether either desirable aspects of extraversion (self-confidence) or undesirable aspects (exhibitionism) apply to the target or not. Mere questioning resulted in a congruent judgment bias towards the questioned attributes that did not generalize to a global halo effect. Experiment 2 replicated the basic finding and demonstrated that this phenomenon is independent of a generation effect (i.e. the memory advantage of self-generated inferences). These results are interpreted in terms of (a) a reframing of the categorical distribution representing the information about the target person in memory and (b) a regressive tendency to assume intermediate default values rather than extreme values for questioned attributes under uncertainty. Alternative explanations in terms of demand effects or a conformation bias cannot provide sufficient accounts. The relevance of constructive processes to understanding self-fulfilling prophecies and other phenomena in social interaction is discussed.

The state of the art of the impact of sampling uncertainty on measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Leite, V. J.; Oliveira, E. C.

2018-03-01

The measurement uncertainty is a parameter that marks the reliability and can be divided into two large groups: sampling and analytical variations. Analytical uncertainty is a controlled process, performed in the laboratory. The same does not occur with the sampling uncertainty, which, because it faces several obstacles and there is no clarity on how to perform the procedures, has been neglected, although it is admittedly indispensable to the measurement process. This paper aims at describing the state of the art of sampling uncertainty and at assessing its relevance to measurement uncertainty.

Personalized neuromusculoskeletal modeling to improve treatment of mobility impairments: a perspective from European research sites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fregly Benjamin J

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Mobility impairments due to injury or disease have a significant impact on quality of life. Consequently, development of effective treatments to restore or replace lost function is an important societal challenge. In current clinical practice, a treatment plan is often selected from a standard menu of options rather than customized to the unique characteristics of the patient. Furthermore, the treatment selection process is normally based on subjective clinical experience rather than objective prediction of post-treatment function. The net result is treatment methods that are less effective than desired at restoring lost function. This paper discusses the possible use of personalized neuromusculoskeletal computer models to improve customization, objectivity, and ultimately effectiveness of treatments for mobility impairments. The discussion is based on information gathered from academic and industrial research sites throughout Europe, and both clinical and technical aspects of personalized neuromusculoskeletal modeling are explored. On the clinical front, we discuss the purpose and process of personalized neuromusculoskeletal modeling, the application of personalized models to clinical problems, and gaps in clinical application. On the technical front, we discuss current capabilities of personalized neuromusculoskeletal models along with technical gaps that limit future clinical application. We conclude by summarizing recommendations for future research efforts that would allow personalized neuromusculoskeletal models to make the greatest impact possible on treatment design for mobility impairments.

Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

1988-01-01

Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Kanal, LN

1986-01-01

How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

Strategy for assessing the technical, environmental, and engineering feasibility of subseabed disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, D.R.; Boyer, D.G.; Herrmann, H.; Kelly, J.; Talbert, D.M.

1980-01-01

This paper presents the strategy and management techniques used in the development of the US Subseabed Disposal Program (SDP) for possible disposal of both high-level waste and spent fuel. These have been developed through joint efforts of the Department of Energy (DOE), Division of Waste Isolation, the Sandia Technical Program Manager, the Technical Program Coordinators, the Advisory Group, and the Principal Investigators. Three subsections of this paper address the various components which make up the SDP strategy and management techniques. The first section will summarize the US DOE high-level waste and spent fuel disposal program and the position that the SDP occupies within that program. The second section, the Subseabed Program Plan, addresses the technical and administrative tools which are employed to facilitate the day-to-day operation of the SDP. The third section addresses the current studies and future plans for addressing the legal, political, and international uncertainties that must be resolved prior to the time the SDP reaches the final engineering phases

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Hyde, David C.; Shweyk, Kamal M.; Brown, Frank; Shah, Gautam

2014-01-01

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements

The Negative Influence of the Technical Means on Children's Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Luparenko

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The negative impact of the technical means (computer, TV on children's development is characterized. This negative impact means damage of physical and mental health; lack of positive moral-ethic influence, forming a soulless, spiritless person; children's detachment from real life and their impossibility to realize themselves; increased aggressiveness; disappearance of the components of children subculture; availability (in virtual world of the information which can influence child's development negatively; children's dependence on computer games, Internet-addiction, etc. The recommendations for parents to reduce the negative influence of technical means on children are given.

IAEA Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strydom, Gerhard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bostelmann, F. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The predictive capability of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations for reactor design and safety analysis can be assessed with sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty analysis (UA) methods. Uncertainty originates from errors in physical data, manufacturing uncertainties, modelling and computational algorithms. (The interested reader is referred to the large body of published SA and UA literature for a more complete overview of the various types of uncertainties, methodologies and results obtained). SA is helpful for ranking the various sources of uncertainty and error in the results of core analyses. SA and UA are required to address cost, safety, and licensing needs and should be applied to all aspects of reactor multi-physics simulation. SA and UA can guide experimental, modelling, and algorithm research and development. Current SA and UA rely either on derivative-based methods such as stochastic sampling methods or on generalized perturbation theory to obtain sensitivity coefficients. Neither approach addresses all needs. In order to benefit from recent advances in modelling and simulation and the availability of new covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) extensive sensitivity and uncertainty studies are needed for quantification of the impact of different sources of uncertainties on the design and safety parameters of HTGRs. Only a parallel effort in advanced simulation and in nuclear data improvement will be able to provide designers with more robust and well validated calculation tools to meet design target accuracies. In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors (TWG-GCR) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recommended that the proposed Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on

Technical discussions on Emissions and Atmospheric Modeling (TEAM)

Science.gov (United States)

Frost, G. J.; Henderson, B.; Lefer, B. L.

2017-12-01

A new informal activity, Technical discussions on Emissions and Atmospheric Modeling (TEAM), aims to improve the scientific understanding of emissions and atmospheric processes by leveraging resources through coordination, communication and collaboration between scientists in the Nation's environmental agencies. TEAM seeks to close information gaps that may be limiting emission inventory development and atmospheric modeling and to help identify related research areas that could benefit from additional coordinated efforts. TEAM is designed around webinars and in-person meetings on particular topics that are intended to facilitate active and sustained informal communications between technical staff at different agencies. The first series of TEAM webinars focuses on emissions of nitrogen oxides, a criteria pollutant impacting human and ecosystem health and a key precursor of ozone and particulate matter. Technical staff at Federal agencies with specific interests in emissions and atmospheric modeling are welcome to participate in TEAM.

Expanding Uncertainty Principle to Certainty-Uncertainty Principles with Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fu Yuhua

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most famous contribution of Heisenberg is uncertainty principle. But the original uncertainty principle is improper. Considering all the possible situations (including the case that people can create laws and applying Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method, this paper presents "certainty-uncertainty principles" with general form and variable dimension fractal form. According to the classification of Neutrosophy, "certainty-uncertainty principles" can be divided into three principles in different conditions: "certainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously; "uncertainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum cannot be known simultaneously; and neutral (fuzzy "indeterminacy principle", namely whether or not a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously is undetermined. The special cases of "certain ty-uncertainty principles" include the original uncertainty principle and Ozawa inequality. In addition, in accordance with the original uncertainty principle, discussing high-speed particle’s speed and track with Newton mechanics is unreasonable; but according to "certaintyuncertainty principles", Newton mechanics can be used to discuss the problem of gravitational defection of a photon orbit around the Sun (it gives the same result of deflection angle as given by general relativity. Finally, for the reason that in physics the principles, laws and the like that are regardless of the principle (law of conservation of energy may be invalid; therefore "certaintyuncertainty principles" should be restricted (or constrained by principle (law of conservation of energy, and thus it can satisfy the principle (law of conservation of energy.

Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

Science.gov (United States)

Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

2010-05-01

Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

77 FR 19937 - Inflatable Personal Flotation Devices

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-03

... Advancement Act OMB Office of Management and Budget PFD Personal flotation device STP Standards Technical... using existing inflatable PFDs, and would enable marketing of existing inflatable PFDs to youth. The... approved, and thus does not affect the availability, use, or marketing of existing PFDs to or by the youth...

Mental Health Experiences of Older Adults Living with HIV: Uncertainty, Stigma, and Approaches to Resilience.

Science.gov (United States)

Furlotte, Charles; Schwartz, Karen

2017-06-01

This study describes the mental health experiences of older adults living with HIV in Ottawa. Eleven participants aged 52 to 67 completed in-depth personal interviews. Mental health concerns pervaded the lives of these older adults. We identified three central themes common to the participants' stories: uncertainty, stigma, and resilience. For some of these participants, uncertainty impacting mental health centred on unexpected survival; interpretation of one's symptoms; and medical uncertainty. Participants' experiences of stigma included discrimination in health care interactions; misinformation; feeling stigmatized due to aspects of their physical appearance; compounded stigma; and anticipated stigma. Participants reported using several coping strategies, which we frame as individual approaches to resilience. These strategies include reducing the space that HIV takes up in one's life; making lifestyle changes to accommodate one's illness; and engaging with social support. These findings inform understandings of services for people aging with HIV who may experience mental health concerns.

Professional technical plantar ability in students of 1er year of the Agricultural specialty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonel Areces Mireles

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The present article which approaches on the problems as to the development of professional technical plantar ability in the Agricultural Specialty Polytechnic Leonides Blanco González. Splitting of a dialectic materialistic focus various methods were utilized and techniques: Theorists and empiricists, the ones that permitted going into the background and conception assumed for the treatment of professional technical ability like formation of the personality of the future agricultural worker, as well as determining the needs of developmental students of technical plantar ability.

Influence of the PMMA and the ISO slab phantom for calibrating personal dosemeters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginjaume, M.; Ortega, X.; Barbosa, A.

2000-01-01

Wide agreement has been achieved among the main Bodies and Organisations involved in standardisation of radiation protection, related to the operational quantities for personal dosimetry. Since their definition in 1985, several reports have been published to clarify and define the experimental set up to be used for the calibration of dosemeters in terms of the above-mentioned quantities. Among these lines, ICRU 47 has listed five different phantoms that are used for calibration and whose results were accurate, within accepted uncertainties. However, to achieve uniformity in calibration procedures, the 30 cm x 30 cm x 15 cm PMMA slab phantom was recommended. The secondary calibration Laboratory from the Institut de Techniques Energetiques at the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) agreed with the Spanish Nacional Laboratory to adopt the recommended PMMA phantom but to improve the accuracy of the calibration procedure, by introducing a correction factor for backscatter differences in a PMMA and an ICRU slab phantom. Such corrections were of the order of 8% for the low-energy X-ray qualities. Recently, ISO in ISO 4037-3, has proposed the ISO water slab phantom which consists of a 30 cm x 30 cm x 15 cm water phantom with PMMA walls (front wall 2.5 mm thick). This new phantom could be substituted by the above mentioned PMMA phantom for radiation qualities with mean energy equal or above that of 137 Cs. The aim of this work is to compare the influence of both phantoms when calibrating personal dosemeters with photons. A set of four TL personal dosemeters that are used in the UPC personal dosimetry Service and an electronic personal dosemeter (SIEMENS EPD-2) were calibrated in terms of H p (10) and H p (0.07) using the two proposed phantoms. Calibration factors for ISO X-ray narrow spectra, 137 Cs and 60 Co were experimentally obtained for each phantom and compared. In the TL measurements, differences were found to be within TL statistical uncertainty, provided that a

Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

1999-01-01

In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

Personal health records in the South African healthcare landscape: a socio-technical analysis

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Mxoli, A

2014-11-01

Full Text Available and control non-communicable lifestyle diseases. Despite numerous benefits adoption rates are low, and little is known regarding the factors that affect adoption in the South African context. This exploratory paper highlights socio-technical factors that can...

Uncertainty Communication. Issues and good practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloprogge, P.; Van der Sluijs, J.; Wardekker, A.

2007-12-01

In 2003 the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) published the RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication. The Guidance assists in dealing with uncertainty in environmental assessments. Dealing with uncertainty is essential because assessment results regarding complex environmental issues are of limited value if the uncertainties have not been taken into account adequately. A careful analysis of uncertainties in an environmental assessment is required, but even more important is the effective communication of these uncertainties in the presentation of assessment results. The Guidance yields rich and differentiated insights in uncertainty, but the relevance of this uncertainty information may vary across audiences and uses of assessment results. Therefore, the reporting of uncertainties is one of the six key issues that is addressed in the Guidance. In practice, users of the Guidance felt a need for more practical assistance in the reporting of uncertainty information. This report explores the issue of uncertainty communication in more detail, and contains more detailed guidance on the communication of uncertainty. In order to make this a 'stand alone' document several questions that are mentioned in the detailed Guidance have been repeated here. This document thus has some overlap with the detailed Guidance. Part 1 gives a general introduction to the issue of communicating uncertainty information. It offers guidelines for (fine)tuning the communication to the intended audiences and context of a report, discusses how readers of a report tend to handle uncertainty information, and ends with a list of criteria that uncertainty communication needs to meet to increase its effectiveness. Part 2 helps writers to analyze the context in which communication takes place, and helps to map the audiences, and their information needs. It further helps to reflect upon anticipated uses and possible impacts of the uncertainty information on the

Assessing the social sustainability contribution of an infrastructure project under conditions of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sierra, Leonardo A.; Yepes, Víctor; Pellicer, Eugenio

2017-01-01

Assessing the viability of a public infrastructure includes economic, technical and environmental aspects; however, on many occasions, the social aspects are not always adequately considered. This article proposes a procedure to estimate the social sustainability of infrastructure projects under conditions of uncertainty, based on a multicriteria deterministic method. The variability of the method inputs is contributed by the decision-makers. Uncertain inputs are treated through uniform and beta PERT distributions. The Monte Carlo method is used to propagate uncertainty in the method. A case study of a road infrastructure improvement in El Salvador is used to illustrate this treatment. The main results determine the variability of the short and long-term social improvement indices by infrastructure and the probability of the position in the prioritization of the alternatives. The proposed mechanism improves the reliability of the decision making early in infrastructure projects, taking their social contribution into account. The results can complement environmental and economic sustainability assessments. - Highlights: •Estimate the social sustainability of infrastructure projects under conditions of uncertainty •The method uses multicriteria and Monte Carlo techniques and beta PERT distributions •Determines variability of the short and long term social improvement •Determines probability in the prioritization of alternatives •Improves reliability of decision making considering the social contribution

Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.H.

1997-01-01

An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

Summary report of technical meeting on neutron cross section covariances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trkov, A.; Smith, D.L.; Capote Noy, R.

2011-01-01

A summary is given of the Technical Meeting on Neutron Cross Section Covariances. The meeting goal was to assess covariance data needs and recommend appropriate methodologies to address those needs. Discussions on covariance data focused on three general topics: 1) Resonance and unresolved resonance regions; 2) Fast neutron region; and 3) Users' perspective: benchmarks' uncertainty and reactor dosimetry. A number of recommendations for further work were generated and the important work that remains to be done in the field of covariances was identified. (author)

Evaluating prediction uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKay, M.D.

1995-03-01

The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

Oil price uncertainty in Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

2009-11-15

Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

Honesty-humility under threat: Self-uncertainty destroys trust among the nice guys.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfattheicher, Stefan; Böhm, Robert

2018-01-01

Recent research on humans' prosociality has highlighted the crucial role of Honesty-Humility, a basic trait in the HEXACO personality model. There is overwhelming evidence that Honesty-Humility predicts prosocial behavior across a vast variety of situations. In the present contribution, we cloud this rosy picture, examining a condition under which individuals high in Honesty-Humility reduce prosocial behavior. Specifically, we propose that under self-uncertainty, it is particularly those individuals high in Honesty-Humility who reduce trust in unknown others and become less prosocial. In 5 studies, we assessed Honesty-Humility, manipulated self-uncertainty, and measured interpersonal trust or trust in social institutions using behavioral or questionnaire measures. In Study 1, individuals high (vs. low) in Honesty-Humility showed higher levels of trust. This relation was mediated by their positive social expectations about the trustworthiness of others. Inducing self-uncertainty decreased trust, particularly in individuals high in Honesty-Humility (Studies 2-5). Making use of measuring the mediator (Studies 2 and 3) and applying a causal chain design (Studies 4a and 4b), it is shown that individuals high in Honesty-Humility reduced trust because self-uncertainty decreased positive social expectations about others. We end with an applied perspective, showing that Honesty-Humility is predictive of trust in social institutions (e.g., trust in the police; Study 5a), and that self-uncertainty undermined trust in the police especially for individuals high in Honesty-Humility (Study 5b). By these means, the present research shows that individuals high in Honesty-Humility are not unconditionally prosocial. Further implications for Honesty-Humility as well as for research on self-uncertainty and trust are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Understanding Project Based Production through Socio-technical Modularity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thuesen, Christian Langhoff

This paper develops an approach for understanding Project Based Production. This form of production is characterized by unique deliverables, high complexity, high value, high risk, profound uncertainty and many stakeholders and is increasingly important the postmodern society. Common to the pract......This paper develops an approach for understanding Project Based Production. This form of production is characterized by unique deliverables, high complexity, high value, high risk, profound uncertainty and many stakeholders and is increasingly important the postmodern society. Common...... to the practices of PBP and other production practices is the goal of balancing the dilemma between creativity and productivity. In response to industrialized production, the concept of modularity gained popularity for addressing this dilemma by exploring product, process and organization structures. However...... with the starting point in system theory and a strong bias towards industrial production, the predominant understanding of modularity faces difficulty in explaining practices of Project Based Production in both social – technical and dynamic – stable aspects. Illustrated by a case the paper addresses this gap...

Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René Schwonnek

2018-03-01

Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

The role of models in managing the uncertainty of software-intensive systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littlewood, Bev; Neil, Martin; Ostrolenk, Gary

1995-01-01

It is increasingly argued that uncertainty is an inescapable feature of the design and operational behaviour of software-intensive systems. This paper elaborates the role of models in managing such uncertainty, in relation to evidence and claims for dependability. Personal and group models are considered with regard to abstraction, consensus and corroboration. The paper focuses on the predictive property of models, arguing for the need for empirical validation of their trustworthiness through experimentation and observation. The impact on trustworthiness of human fallibility, formality of expression and expressiveness is discussed. The paper identifies two criteria for deciding the degree of trust to be placed in a model, and hence also for choosing between models, namely accuracy and informativeness. Finally, analogy and reuse are proposed as the only means by which empirical evidence can be established for models in software engineering

Measurement uncertainty and probability

CERN Document Server

Willink, Robin

2013-01-01

A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

Articulating uncertainty as part of scientific argumentation during model-based exoplanet detection tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hee-Sun; Pallant, Amy; Pryputniewicz, Sarah

2015-08-01

Teaching scientific argumentation has emerged as an important goal for K-12 science education. In scientific argumentation, students are actively involved in coordinating evidence with theory based on their understanding of the scientific content and thinking critically about the strengths and weaknesses of the cited evidence in the context of the investigation. We developed a one-week-long online curriculum module called "Is there life in space?" where students conduct a series of four model-based tasks to learn how scientists detect extrasolar planets through the “wobble” and transit methods. The simulation model allows students to manipulate various parameters of an imaginary star and planet system such as planet size, orbit size, planet-orbiting-plane angle, and sensitivity of telescope equipment, and to adjust the display settings for graphs illustrating the relative velocity and light intensity of the star. Students can use model-based evidence to formulate an argument on whether particular signals in the graphs guarantee the presence of a planet. Students' argumentation is facilitated by the four-part prompts consisting of multiple-choice claim, open-ended explanation, Likert-scale uncertainty rating, and open-ended uncertainty rationale. We analyzed 1,013 scientific arguments formulated by 302 high school student groups taught by 7 teachers. We coded these arguments in terms of the accuracy of their claim, the sophistication of explanation connecting evidence to the established knowledge base, the uncertainty rating, and the scientific validity of uncertainty. We found that (1) only 18% of the students' uncertainty rationale involved critical reflection on limitations inherent in data and concepts, (2) 35% of students' uncertainty rationale reflected their assessment of personal ability and knowledge, rather than scientific sources of uncertainty related to the evidence, and (3) the nature of task such as the use of noisy data or the framing of

Model uncertainty and probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, G.W.

1994-01-01

This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

Technical expertise in the decision process - some comparative observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wynne, B.

1987-01-01

The Sizewell-B public Inquiry aimed to be a 'full, fair and thorough' examination of all the facts. This could not really be achieved because the economic and safety cases cannot be exhaustively and definitively analysed. Technical examination cannot resolve these issues - only political commitment and history can, in time. This problem of uncertainties in the decision making process is discussed in detail, indicating the difficulties with large-scale public inquiries such as that for Sizewell-B. Analysis of many case studies of decision making indicates two generalisations. The first is that commitments made on the basis of values or political interests are represented as if they were the inevitable result of economic logic or scientific law. The second is that expert disagreement over technical claims is widely believed to be caused by lack of vigour, competance or impartiality on one side or the other. Recommendations for improving the decision-making process are made. (U.K.)

A new uncertainty importance measure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgonovo, E.

2007-01-01

Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

The influence of personality, measured by the Karolinska Scales of Personality (KSP), on symptoms among subjects in suspected sick buildings.

Science.gov (United States)

Runeson, R; Norbäck, D; Klinteberg, B; Edling, C

2004-12-01

. Personality may play a role in the occurrence of symptoms studied in indoor environmental epidemiology. Our results support a view that measurement of personality could be of value in future studies and vulnerability to environmental stress. Personality and personal vulnerability should be considered in both indoor environmental epidemiology and practical handling of building with suspected indoor problem, especially when the technical investigations fail to identify any obvious technical malfunction. Moreover, personality aspects should be considered among subjects with possible vulnerable personality exposed to environmental stress, and personality diagnosis can be a complementary tool useful when assessing 'sick building patients' in the medical services. We found no evidence of severe personality pathology in among those working in workplaces with environmental problems so called 'sick buildings'.

Risk regulation in environment, health and safety : Decision in the face of uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ettlinger, L A [The Oxford Group, Baltimore, MD (United States)

1999-12-01

Regulations that use or refer to the concept of 'risk' are becoming more popular with both the U.S. Congress and Government agencies -- and are often being challenged in the courts. Proponents of stronger regulation suggest that there are significant threats to life and health that receive little or no attention from both elected officials and regulators, whereas advocates of less intensive government intervention point to regulations that impose high costs with little or no benefit. Usually, both the costs and the benefits are highly uncertain. This paper assumes for the purpose of argument that both proponents and opponents can find many cases where their respective arguments have merit. We also assume that both criticisms of the status quo have a large constituency within the public. If these assumption are valid, then a policy problem is created whereby decision makers are being asked, in the face of significant uncertainty, when to regulate, and at what level of specificity to regulate. The purposes of this paper are to offer some fresh ideas about why these problems arise, shed some light on decision making within the Congress, the regulatory agencies and the courts, and offer some practical steps that could be taken to reform the present system of regulation. Our central observation is that disputes arise as to the efficacy of risk regulations (in the face of uncertainty) because of the difficulties citizens face in determining whether either those who cause risks or those who are responsible for mitigating them are acting in the citizen's best interest. These regulations contain issues which typically deal with subjects containing substantial, unresolvable technical and scientific uncertainties. Because of this inherent uncertainty, the relationships between citizens and regulators, with elected officials in the middle, becomes an especially difficult form of agent relationship. We conclude that the problems associated with this agent relationship are

Risk regulation in environment, health and safety : Decision in the face of uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ettlinger, L.A. [The Oxford Group, Baltimore, MD (United States)

1999-12-01

Regulations that use or refer to the concept of 'risk' are becoming more popular with both the U.S. Congress and Government agencies -- and are often being challenged in the courts. Proponents of stronger regulation suggest that there are significant threats to life and health that receive little or no attention from both elected officials and regulators, whereas advocates of less intensive government intervention point to regulations that impose high costs with little or no benefit. Usually, both the costs and the benefits are highly uncertain. This paper assumes for the purpose of argument that both proponents and opponents can find many cases where their respective arguments have merit. We also assume that both criticisms of the status quo have a large constituency within the public. If these assumption are valid, then a policy problem is created whereby decision makers are being asked, in the face of significant uncertainty, when to regulate, and at what level of specificity to regulate. The purposes of this paper are to offer some fresh ideas about why these problems arise, shed some light on decision making within the Congress, the regulatory agencies and the courts, and offer some practical steps that could be taken to reform the present system of regulation. Our central observation is that disputes arise as to the efficacy of risk regulations (in the face of uncertainty) because of the difficulties citizens face in determining whether either those who cause risks or those who are responsible for mitigating them are acting in the citizen's best interest. These regulations contain issues which typically deal with subjects containing substantial, unresolvable technical and scientific uncertainties. Because of this inherent uncertainty, the relationships between citizens and regulators, with elected officials in the middle, becomes an especially difficult form of agent relationship. We conclude that the problems associated with this agent

Risk regulation in environment, health and safety : Decision in the face of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ettlinger, L.A.

1999-01-01

Regulations that use or refer to the concept of 'risk' are becoming more popular with both the U.S. Congress and Government agencies -- and are often being challenged in the courts. Proponents of stronger regulation suggest that there are significant threats to life and health that receive little or no attention from both elected officials and regulators, whereas advocates of less intensive government intervention point to regulations that impose high costs with little or no benefit. Usually, both the costs and the benefits are highly uncertain. This paper assumes for the purpose of argument that both proponents and opponents can find many cases where their respective arguments have merit. We also assume that both criticisms of the status quo have a large constituency within the public. If these assumption are valid, then a policy problem is created whereby decision makers are being asked, in the face of significant uncertainty, when to regulate, and at what level of specificity to regulate. The purposes of this paper are to offer some fresh ideas about why these problems arise, shed some light on decision making within the Congress, the regulatory agencies and the courts, and offer some practical steps that could be taken to reform the present system of regulation. Our central observation is that disputes arise as to the efficacy of risk regulations (in the face of uncertainty) because of the difficulties citizens face in determining whether either those who cause risks or those who are responsible for mitigating them are acting in the citizen's best interest. These regulations contain issues which typically deal with subjects containing substantial, unresolvable technical and scientific uncertainties. Because of this inherent uncertainty, the relationships between citizens and regulators, with elected officials in the middle, becomes an especially difficult form of agent relationship. We conclude that the problems associated with this agent relationship are

Economic–Environmental Sustainability in Building Projects: Introducing Risk and Uncertainty in LCCE and LCCA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Fregonara

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for supporting decision-making in the design stages of new buildings or in the retrofitting of existing heritages. The focus is on the evaluation of economic–environmental sustainability, considering the presence of risk and uncertainty. An application of risk analysis in conjunction with Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA is proposed for selecting the preferable solution between technological options, which represents a recent and poorly explored context of analysis. It is assumed that there is a presence of uncertainty in cost estimating, in terms of the Life-Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCEs and uncertainty in the technical performance of the life-cycle cost analysis. According to the probability analysis, which was solved through stochastic simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (MCM, risk and uncertainty are modeled as stochastic variables or as “stochastic relevant cost drivers”. Coherently, the economic–financial and energy–environmental sustainability is analyzed through the calculation of a conjoint “economic–environmental indicator”, in terms of the stochastic global cost. A case study of the multifunctional building glass façade project in Northern Italy is proposed. The application demonstrates that introducing flexibility into the input data and the duration of the service lives of components and the economic and environmental behavior of alternative scenarios can lead to opposite results compared to a deterministic analysis. The results give full evidence of the environmental variables’ capacity to significantly perturb the model output.

An Approach to Developing Independent Learning and Non-Technical Skills Amongst Final Year Mining Engineering Students

Science.gov (United States)

Knobbs, C. G.; Grayson, D. J.

2012-01-01

There is mounting evidence to show that engineers need more than technical skills to succeed in industry. This paper describes a curriculum innovation in which so-called "soft" skills, specifically inter-personal and intra-personal skills, were integrated into a final year mining engineering course. The instructional approach was…

Preliminary assessment on the competency of technical staff of Atomic Energy Licensing Board

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marina Mishar; Redzuwan Yahya

2010-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to carry out a preliminary assessment on the competency level of technical staff of Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB), the nuclear regulatory body in Malaysia for effectively monitoring and supervising the activities of the first nuclear power plant in Malaysia. The study is conducted out on the whole group of AELB technical staff, comprising 81 personnel from the supporting and professional categories. Findings showed that AELB technical staff who have been in the workforce for more than ten years have the required competency level for legal and regulatory processes competencies, regulatory practices competencies and effectiveness in personal and inter-personal competencies. Regression analysis between competency and working experience (length of service) showed a weak positive correlation, which could be contributed by job not related to the competency parameters for major functions of a regulatory body in controlling nuclear activity of a nuclear power plant. Results obtained could assist AELB in manpower development once Malaysia makes the decision to embark on a nuclear power programme. (author)

Psychological defense, ideological hideaway, or rational reckoning? The role of uncertainty in local adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, S. C.

2011-12-01

As adaptation planning is rising rapidly on the agenda of decision-makers, the need for adequate information to inform those decisions is growing. Locally relevant climate change (as well as related impacts and vulnerability) information, however, is difficult to obtain and that which can be obtained carries the burden of significant scientific uncertainty. This paper aims to assess how important such uncertainty is in adaptation planning, decision-making, and related stakeholder engagement. Does uncertainty actually hinder adaptation planning? Is scientific uncertainty used to postpone decisions reflecting ideologically agendas? Or is it a convenient defense against cognitive and affective engagement with the emerging and projected - and in some cases daunting - climate change risks? To whom does such uncertainty matter and how important is it relative to other challenges decision-makers and stakeholders face? The paper draws on four sources of information to answer these questions: (1) a statewide survey of California coastal managers conducted in summer 2011, (2) years of continual engagement with, and observation of, decision-makers in local adaptation efforts, (3) findings from focus groups with lay individuals in coastal California; and (4) a review of relevant adaptation literature to guide and contextualize the empirical research. The findings entail some "inconvenient truths" for those claiming critical technical or political importance. Rather, the insights suggest that some uncertainties matter more than others; they matter at certain times, but not at others; and they matter to some decision-makers, but not to others. Implications for scientists communicating and engaging with communities are discussed.

Uncertainty calculations made easier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogenbirk, A.

1994-07-01

The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

Personality and community prevention teams: Dimensions of team leader and member personality predicting team functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Feinberg, Mark E; Kim, Ji-Yeon; Greenberg, Mark T

2008-11-01

The predictors and correlates of positive functioning among community prevention teams have been examined in a number of research studies; however, the role of personality has been neglected. In this study, we examined whether team member and leader personality dimensions assessed at the time of team formation predicted local prevention team functioning 2.5-3.5 years later. Participants were 159 prevention team members in 14 communities participating in the PROSPER study of prevention program dissemination. Three aspects of personality, aggregated at the team level, were examined as predictors: Openness to Experience, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness. A series of multivariate regression analyses were performed that accounted for the interdependency of five categories of team functioning. Results showed that average team member Openness was negatively, and Conscientiousness was positively linked to team functioning. The findings have implications for decisions about the level and nature of technical assistance support provided to community prevention teams.

Unexpected uncertainty, volatility and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy Rachel Bland

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The study of uncertainty in decision making is receiving greater attention in the fields of cognitive and computational neuroscience. Several lines of evidence are beginning to elucidate different variants of uncertainty. Particularly, risk, ambiguity and expected and unexpected forms of uncertainty are well articulated in the literature. In this article we review both empirical and theoretical evidence arguing for the potential distinction between three forms of uncertainty; expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty and volatility. Particular attention will be devoted to exploring the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility which has been less appreciated in the literature. This includes evidence from computational modelling, neuromodulation, neuroimaging and electrophysiological studies. We further address the possible differentiation of cognitive control mechanisms used to deal with these forms of uncertainty. Particularly we explore a role for conflict monitoring and the temporal integration of information into working memory. Finally, we explore whether the Dual Modes of Control theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility.

Model uncertainty in safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

1996-01-01

The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

Model uncertainty in safety assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

1996-01-01

The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

2018-01-01

Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

Technical bases for criticality safety standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clayton, E.D.

1980-01-01

An American National Standard implies a consensus of those substantially concerned with its scope and provisions. The technical basis, or foundation, on which the consensus rests, must in turn, be firmly established and documented for public review. The technical bases are discussed and reviewed of several standards in different stages of completion and acceptance: ANSI/ANS-8.12, 1978, Nuclear Criticality Control and Safety of Homogeneous Plutonium - Uranium Mixtures Outside Reactors (Approved July 17, 1978); ANS-815, Nuclear Criticality Control of Special Actinide Elements (Draft No. 5 of newly proposed standard); ANS-8.14, Use of Solutions of Neutron Absorbers for Criticality Control (Draft No. 4 of newly proposed standard); ANS-8.5 (Revision of N16.4, 1971), Use of Borosilicate-Glass Raschig Rings as a Neutron Absorber in Solutions of Fissile Material (Draft No. 5 as a result of prescribed five-year review and update of old standard). In each of the preceding, the newly proposed (or revised) limits are based on the extension of experimental data via well established calculations, or by means of independent calculations with adequate margins for uncertainties. The four cases serve to illustrate the insight of the work group members in the establishment of the technical bases for the limits and the level of activity required on their part in the preparation of ANSI Standards. A time span of from four up to seven years has not been uncommon for the preparation, review, and acceptance of an ANSI Standard. 8 figures. 7 tables

Technical recommendations for bilateral comparison in diagnosis radiology: part 3; Protocolo tecnico da comparacao bilateral em radiologia diagnostica: parte 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peixoto, J.G.P., E-mail: guilherm@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Almeida, C.E.V. de [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (LCR/IBRAG/UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Ciencias Radiologicas

2015-07-01

Uncertainty and results homogeneity need to following the technical procedure to bilateral comparison, then we select the equipment used, reference conditions and the data file to be used for all participant laboratory. The partial results will be presentation at metrology and medical physics congress. (author)

Validation of an uncertainty of illness scale adapted to use with Spanish emergency department patients and their accompanying relatives or friends.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruymán Brito-Brito, Pedro; García-Tesouro, Esther; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Domingo Ángel; García-Hernández, Alfonso Miguel; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Raquel; Burillo-Putze, Guillermo

2018-01-01

To validate a Spanish adaptation of the Mishel Uncertainty of Illness Scale for use with emergency-department (ED) patients and their accompanying relatives or friends (the UIS-ED). We first developed a version of the questionnaire for Spanish ED situations. Next we assessed the content validity index for each of its items, revised it, and reassessed its face validity to produce a second version, which we then piloted in 20 hospital ED patients. A third revised version was then validated in a population of 320 adults (160 patients and 160 accompanying persons) who attended the ED between November 2015 and September 2016. The 12-item UIS-ED (60 points) was administered by 2 nurses while the patients and accompanying persons were in the ED. We gathered sociodemographic and clinical data as well as the subjects' perception about the information they were given. The mean (SD) uncertainty score among patients was 29 (11) points. Accompanying persons had a mean score of 36 (13) points. Factorial analysis confirmed the instrument's construct validity, finding that both dimensions of the original Mishel scale (complexity and ambiguity) were present in 6 items each. Factorial analysis explained 60% of the total variance in the patient version and 67% of the variance in the version for accompanying persons. Reliability statistics were good, with Cronbach's α values ranging from 0.912 to 0.938. Split-half reliability statistics ranged from 0.901 to 0.933. Correlations were significant in the analysis of convergent validity. The UIS-ED questionnaire may prove to be a simple, valid, and reliable way for assessing uncertainty in patients and their accompanying friends or relatives attending Spanish EDs.

Teamwork orientation and personal learning: The role of individual cultural values and value congruence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghulam Mustafa

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Orientation: There is a growing body of research that indicates that personal factors such as collectivist value orientation play an important role in individuals’ preference for teamwork, and an individual’s propensity to work in a team is seen as a contributing factor in one’s personal learning. Research purpose: The purpose of this article is twofold. Firstly, the article aims to explore whether individual-level cultural values of power distance, uncertainty avoidance and masculinity–femininity interact with individual collectivist values to influence teamwork orientation. Secondly, the study aims to examine the influence of teamwork orientation on personal learning further exploring the role of perceived value congruence in this relationship. Motivation for the study: While an extensive amount of research has been conducted on teamwork orientation, the question of how individual cultural values influence formation of teamwork orientation is still largely unanswered. This lack is especially evident with regard to how the influence of collectivism on the development of positive attitudes towards teamwork is promoted or inhibited by other values such as power distance, uncertainty avoidance and masculinity–femininity. Moreover, the current evidence about the influence of teamwork orientation on personal learning and the role of personal and contextual factors in such a relationship is still scarce. Research design, approach and method: The study used a cross-sectional survey, with data collected from 120 business students engaged in project teams at a Norwegian university. All the hypothesised relationships were assessed using partial least square structural equation modelling technique. Main findings: The findings indicate that the link between collectivism–teamwork orientation is stronger for team members who scored high on uncertainty avoidance values and the relationship was weaker for team members who endorsed high

Energy assessment of peri-urban horticulture and its uncertainty: Case study for Bogota, Colombia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bojaca, C.R. [Centro de Investigaciones y Asesorias Agroindustriales, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad de Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano, P.O. Box: 140196, Chia (Colombia); Schrevens, E. [Department of Biosystems, Faculty of Applied Bioscience Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Geo-Institute, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, 3001 Heverlee (Belgium)

2010-05-15

Scarce information is available about the energy use pattern of horticultural commodities in general and more specifically for peri-urban horticulture. Peri-urban horticulture in the outskirts of Bogota is an important source of vegetables for Colombia's capital city. Based on detailed follow-ups and periodic field measurements an output-input energy balance was performed with the main objective to study the energy use efficiency of those systems. An uncertainty analysis on the input factors and on the energy equivalents was then applied. Over a measurement period of 18-month, the energy use for coriander, lettuce, radish and spinach was investigated, respectively 12.1, 18.8, 6.6 and 10.7 GJ ha{sup -1} were consumed in these cropping systems. Negative balances were observed for all species exception made for spinach where an output:input ratio of 1.16 was found. The two-way uncertainty analysis showed the highest uncertainty for N-based fertilization while no significant effect was observed for seeds in direct sowing crops. Sustainability of peri-urban horticulture around Bogota is compromised not only because of the city expansion but also due to its inefficient energy use. Technical improvements are required to ensure the environmental subsistence of this important sector for the metropolitan area of the city. (author)

Best estimate analysis of LOFT L2-5 with CATHARE: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

JOUCLA, Jerome; PROBST, Pierre [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); FOUET, Fabrice [APTUS, Versailles (France)

2008-07-01

The revision of the 10 CFR50.46 in 1988 has made possible the use of best-estimate codes. They may be used in safety demonstration and licensing, provided that uncertainties are added to the relevant output parameters before comparing them with the acceptance criteria. In the safety analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident, it was agreed that the 95. percentile estimated with a high degree of confidence should be lower than the acceptance criteria. It appeared necessary to IRSN, technical support of the French Safety Authority, to get more insight into these strategies which are being developed not only in thermal-hydraulics but in other fields such as in neutronics. To estimate the 95. percentile with a high confidence level, we propose to use rank statistics or bootstrap. Toward the objective of assessing uncertainty, it is useful to determine and to classify the main input parameters. We suggest approximating the code by a surrogate model, the Kriging model, which will be used to make a sensitivity analysis with the SOBOL methodology. This paper presents the application of two new methodologies of how to make the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the maximum peak cladding temperature of the LOFT L2-5 test with the CATHARE code. (authors)

A framework for assessing the uncertainty in wave energy delivery to targeted subsurface formations

Science.gov (United States)

Karve, Pranav M.; Kallivokas, Loukas F.; Manuel, Lance

2016-02-01

Stress wave stimulation of geological formations has potential applications in petroleum engineering, hydro-geology, and environmental engineering. The stimulation can be applied using wave sources whose spatio-temporal characteristics are designed to focus the emitted wave energy into the target region. Typically, the design process involves numerical simulations of the underlying wave physics, and assumes a perfect knowledge of the material properties and the overall geometry of the geostructure. In practice, however, precise knowledge of the properties of the geological formations is elusive, and quantification of the reliability of a deterministic approach is crucial for evaluating the technical and economical feasibility of the design. In this article, we discuss a methodology that could be used to quantify the uncertainty in the wave energy delivery. We formulate the wave propagation problem for a two-dimensional, layered, isotropic, elastic solid truncated using hybrid perfectly-matched-layers (PMLs), and containing a target elastic or poroelastic inclusion. We define a wave motion metric to quantify the amount of the delivered wave energy. We, then, treat the material properties of the layers as random variables, and perform a first-order uncertainty analysis of the formation to compute the probabilities of failure to achieve threshold values of the motion metric. We illustrate the uncertainty quantification procedure using synthetic data.

Uncertainty in Measurement: Procedures for Determining Uncertainty With Application to Clinical Laboratory Calculations.

Science.gov (United States)

Frenkel, Robert B; Farrance, Ian

2018-01-01

The "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement" (GUM) is the foundational document of metrology. Its recommendations apply to all areas of metrology including metrology associated with the biomedical sciences. When the output of a measurement process depends on the measurement of several inputs through a measurement equation or functional relationship, the propagation of uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output demands a level of understanding of the differential calculus. This review is intended as an elementary guide to the differential calculus and its application to uncertainty in measurement. The review is in two parts. In Part I, Section 3, we consider the case of a single input and introduce the concepts of error and uncertainty. Next we discuss, in the following sections in Part I, such notions as derivatives and differentials, and the sensitivity of an output to errors in the input. The derivatives of functions are obtained using very elementary mathematics. The overall purpose of this review, here in Part I and subsequently in Part II, is to present the differential calculus for those in the medical sciences who wish to gain a quick but accurate understanding of the propagation of uncertainties. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimization of maintenance strategies in case of data uncertainties; Optimierung von Instandhaltungsstrategien bei unscharfen Eingangsdaten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aha, Ulrich

2013-07-01

Maintenance strategies are aimed to keep a technical facility functioning in spite of damaging processes (wear, corrosion, fatigue) with simultaneous control of these processes. The project optimization of maintenance strategies in case of data uncertainties is aimed to optimize maintenance measures like preventive measures (lubrication etc.), inspections and replacements to keep the facility/plant operating including the minimization of financial costs. The report covers the following topics: modeling assumptions, model development and optimization procedure, results for a conventional power plant and an oxyfuel plant.

Selection of technical risk responses for efficient contingencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kujawski, Edouard

2002-02-28

The primary goal of good project risk management should be to successfully deliver projects for the lowest cost at an acceptable level of risk. This requires the systematic development and implementation of a set of Risk Response Actions (RRA) that achieves the lowest total project cost for a given probability of success while meeting technical performance and schedule. We refer to this set as the ''efficient RRA set''. This work presents a practical and mathematically sound approach for determining the efficient RRA set. It builds on some of Markowitz's portfolio selection principles and introduces several conceptual and modeling differences to properly treat project technical risks. The set of RRAs is treated as whole and not just individual risks. The efficient RRA set is determined based on ''Outcome Cost Vs Probability of Success''. The risks and RRAs are characterized using scenarios, decision trees, and cumulative probability distributions. The analysis provides information that enables decision-makers to select the efficient RRA set that explicitly takes their attitude toward project risk into account. Decision-makers should find it both useful and practical for sound decision-making under uncertainty/risk and efficiently optimizing project success. The computations are readily performed using commercially available Monte Carlo simulation tools. The approach is detailed using a realistic but simplified case of a project with two technical risks.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

Community health nursing practices in contexts of poverty, uncertainty and unpredictability: a systematization of personal experiences

OpenAIRE

Laperrière,Hélène

2007-01-01

Several years of professional nursing practices, while living in the poorest neighbourhoods in the outlying areas of Brazil's Amazon region, have led the author to develop a better understanding of marginalized populations. Providing care to people with leprosy and sex workers in riverside communities has taken place in conditions of uncertainty, insecurity, unpredictability and institutional violence. The question raised is how we can develop community health nursing practices in this contex...

Deterministic uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.

1987-01-01

Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

Uncertainty and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

2009-01-01

More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

The uncertainty budget in pharmaceutical industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heydorn, Kaj

of their uncertainty, exactly as described in GUM [2]. Pharmaceutical industry has therefore over the last 5 years shown increasing interest in accreditation according to ISO 17025 [3], and today uncertainty budgets are being developed for all so-called critical measurements. The uncertainty of results obtained...... that the uncertainty of a particular result is independent of the method used for its estimation. Several examples of uncertainty budgets for critical parameters based on the bottom-up procedure will be discussed, and it will be shown how the top-down method is used as a means of verifying uncertainty budgets, based...

Performance testing of UK personal dosimetry laboratories

CERN Document Server

Marshall, T O

1985-01-01

The proposed Ionising Radiations Regulations will require all UK personal dosimetry laboratories that monitor classified personnel to be approved for personal dosimetry by the Health and Safety Executive. It is suggested that these approvals should be based on general and supplementary criteria published by the British Calibration Service (BCS) for laboratory approval for the provision of personal dosimetry services. These criteria specify certain qualitative requirements and also indicate the need for regular tests of performance to be carried out to ensure constancy of dosimetric standards. This report concerns the latter. The status of the BCS criteria is discussed and the need for additional documents to cover new techniques and some modifications to existing documents is indicated. A means is described by which the technical performance of laboratories, concerned with personal monitoring for external radiations, can be assessed, both initially and ongoing. The costs to establish the scheme and operate it...

Enhancing Privacy Education with a Technical Emphasis in IT Curriculum

Science.gov (United States)

Peltsverger, Svetlana; Zheng, Guangzhi

2016-01-01

The paper describes the development of four learning modules that focus on technical details of how a person's privacy might be compromised in real-world scenarios. The paper shows how students benefited from the addition of hands-on learning experiences of privacy and data protection to the existing information technology courses. These learning…

LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassahn, G.D.

1983-01-01

The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassahn, G.D.

1983-01-01

The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

2016-01-01

Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

Managing the uncertainties of the streamflow data produced by the French national hydrological services

Science.gov (United States)

Puechberty, Rachel; Bechon, Pierre-Marie; Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin

2015-04-01

The French national hydrological services (NHS) manage the production of streamflow time series throughout the national territory. The hydrological data are made available to end-users through different web applications and the national hydrological archive (Banque Hydro). Providing end-users with qualitative and quantitative information on the uncertainty of the hydrological data is key to allow them drawing relevant conclusions and making appropriate decisions. Due to technical and organisational issues that are specific to the field of hydrometry, quantifying the uncertainty of hydrological measurements is still challenging and not yet standardized. The French NHS have made progress on building a consistent strategy to assess the uncertainty of their streamflow data. The strategy consists of addressing the uncertainties produced and propagated at each step of the data production with uncertainty analysis tools that are compatible with each other and compliant with international uncertainty guidance and standards. Beyond the necessary research and methodological developments, operational software tools and procedures are absolutely necessary to the data management and uncertainty analysis by field hydrologists. A first challenge is to assess, and if possible reduce, the uncertainty of streamgauging data, i.e. direct stage-discharge measurements. Interlaboratory experiments proved to be a very efficient way to empirically measure the uncertainty of a given streamgauging technique in given measurement conditions. The Q+ method (Le Coz et al., 2012) was developed to improve the uncertainty propagation method proposed in the ISO748 standard for velocity-area gaugings. Both empirical or computed (with Q+) uncertainty values can now be assigned in BAREME, which is the software used by the French NHS for managing streamgauging measurements. A second pivotal step is to quantify the uncertainty related to stage-discharge rating curves and their application to water level

How to develop and write a case for technical writing

Science.gov (United States)

Couture, B.; Goldstein, J.

1981-01-01

Case of different sizes and shapes for teaching technical writing to engineers at Wayne State University have been developed. The case approach was adopted for some assignments because sophomores and juniors lacked technical expertise and professional knowledge of the engineering world. Cases were found to be good exercises, providing realistic practice in specific writing tasks or isolating particular skills in the composing process. A special kind of case which narrates the experiences of one technical person engaged in the problem-solving process in a professional rhetorical situation was developed. This type of long, realistic fiction is called a an "holistic" case. Rather than asking students to role-play a character, an holistic case realistically encompasses the whole of the technical writing process. It allows students to experience the total communication act in which the technical task and data are fully integrated into the rhetorical situation and gives an opportunity to perform in a realistic context, using skills and knowledge required in communication on the job. It is believed that the holistic case most fully exploits the advantages of the case method for students of professional communication.

Improving operational safety management through probabilistic safety assessment on personal computers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-10-01

The Technical Committee Meeting considered the current effort in the implementation and use of PSA information for day-to-day operational safety management on Personal Computers. Due to the very recent development of the necessary hardware and software for Personal Computers, the application of PSA information for day-to-day operational safety management on PCs is essentially still in a pioneering stage. There is at present only one such system for end users existing, the PRISIM (Plant Risk Status Information Management) program for which a limited practical application experience is available. Others are still in the development stage. The main aim of the Technical Committee Meeting was to discuss the present status of PSA based systems for operational safety management support on small computers, to consider practical aspects when implementing these systems into a nuclear installation and to address problems related to the further work in the area. A separate abstract was prepared for the summary of the Technical Committee Meeting and for the 8 papers presented by the participants. Refs, figs and tabs

Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Nilsson

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.

Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

2016-08-01

Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Personalization and usage data in academic libraries : an exploratory study

OpenAIRE

Beyene, Wondwossen Mulualem

2012-01-01

Joint Master Degree in Digital Library Learning (DILL) Personalization is a service pattern for ensuring proactive information delivery tailored to an individual based on learned or perceived needs of the person. It is credited as a remedy for information explosion especially in the academic environment and its importance to libraries was described to the extent of justifying their existence. There have been numerous novel approaches or technical specifications forwarded for realization of...

Justification for recommended uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

2007-01-01

The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

Adjoint-Based Uncertainty Quantification with MCNP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seifried, Jeffrey E. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2011-09-01

This work serves to quantify the instantaneous uncertainties in neutron transport simulations born from nuclear data and statistical counting uncertainties. Perturbation and adjoint theories are used to derive implicit sensitivity expressions. These expressions are transformed into forms that are convenient for construction with MCNP6, creating the ability to perform adjoint-based uncertainty quantification with MCNP6. These new tools are exercised on the depleted-uranium hybrid LIFE blanket, quantifying its sensitivities and uncertainties to important figures of merit. Overall, these uncertainty estimates are small (< 2%). Having quantified the sensitivities and uncertainties, physical understanding of the system is gained and some confidence in the simulation is acquired.

Bilateral comparison of the calibration laboratories in radiodiagnosis: Technical Protocol 16/17

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peixoto, J.G.P.; Almeida, C.E.V. de

2016-01-01

The need to standardize the results in diagnostic radiology conditions of calibration laboratories, taking into account the applicability to conventional radiology , mammography and computed tomography where the total demand for diagnostic imaging is ≈70 % ≈4 % and ≈2 % respectively. The objective of the technical protocol is not only the equipment used , but also in terms of reference and the evaluation worksheet measurement uncertainties . The results of stability and energy dependence of transfer chamber shows these adequacy for the propose. (author)

Linear Programming Problems for Generalized Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Thipwiwatpotjana, Phantipa

2010-01-01

Uncertainty occurs when there is more than one realization that can represent an information. This dissertation concerns merely discrete realizations of an uncertainty. Different interpretations of an uncertainty and their relationships are addressed when the uncertainty is not a probability of each realization. A well known model that can handle…

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Preferences on technical report format - Results of a survey

Science.gov (United States)

Pinelli, T. E.; Cordle, V. M.; Glassman, M.; Vondran, R. F.

1984-01-01

A survey of 513 engineers and scientists employed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center and 600 engineers and scientists from three professional/technical societies solicited the opinions of report users concerning the format of NASA technical reports. The results indicate that a summary as well as an abstract should be included, that the definitions of symbols and glossary of terms should be located in the front of the report, and that the illustrative material should be integrated with the text rather than grouped at the end of the report. Citation of references by number, one-column, ragged-right-margin layout, and third-person writing style are also preferred by a majority of the respondents.

An extension of uncertainty management theory to the self: the relationship between justice, social comparison orientation, and antisocial work behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Thau, Stefan; Aquino, Karl; Wittek, Rafael

2007-01-01

A multisource field study of 103 employees and their supervisors tested an extension of uncertainty management theory (E. A. Lind & K. Van den Bos, 2002; K. Van den Bos & E. A. Lind, 2002). According to this theory, persons high in social comparison orientation (F. X. Gibbons & B. P. Buunk, 1999) experience chronic uncertainty about the self. It was hypothesized that this should strengthen the effects of interactional and procedural justice perceptions on antisocial work behaviors. As predicted, the negative relationship between employee perceptions of interactional justice and supervisory ratings of antisocial work behaviors was stronger for people who are high as compared with low in social comparison orientation. Results provide evidence for an extension of uncertainty management theory to the self-domain. 2007 APA, all rights reserved

Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

Science.gov (United States)

Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

2018-02-02

The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the effect of hazard and response/fragility uncertainties on core melt probability uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mensing, R.W.

1985-01-01

This report proposes a method for comparing the effects of the uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) input parameters on the uncertainty in the predicted risks. The proposed method is applied to compare the effect of uncertainties in the descriptions of (1) the seismic hazard at a nuclear power plant site and (2) random variations in plant subsystem responses and component fragility on the uncertainty in the predicted probability of core melt. The PRA used is that developed by the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program

OECD/CSNI Workshop on Best Estimate Methods and Uncertainty Evaluations - Workshop Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

Best-Estimate Methods plus Uncertainty Evaluation are gaining increased interest in the licensing process. On the other hand, lessons learnt from the BEMUSE (NEA/CSNI/R(2011)3) and SM2A (NEA/CSNI/R(2011)3) benchmarks, progress of UAM benchmark, and answers to the WGAMA questionnaire on the Use of Best-Estimate Methodologies show that improvements of the present methods are necessary and new applications appear. The objective of this workshop is to provide a forum for a wide range of experts to exchange information in the area of best estimate analysis and uncertainty evaluation methods and address issues drawn-up from BEMUSE, UAM and SM2A activities. Both, improvement of existing methods and recent new developments are included. As a result of the workshop development, a set of recommendations, including lines for future activities were proposed. The organisation of the Workshop was divided into three parts: Opening session including key notes from OECD and IAEA representatives, Technical sessions, and a Wrap-up session. All sessions included a debate with participation from the audience constituted by 71 attendees. The workshop consisted of four technical sessions: a) Development achievements of BEPU methods and State of the Art: The objective of this session was to present the different approaches to deal with Best Estimate codes and uncertainties evaluations. A total of six papers were presented. One initial paper summarized the existing methods; the following open papers were focused on specific methods stressing their bases, peculiarities and advantages. As a result of the session a picture of the current State of the Art was obtained. b) International comparative activities: This session reviewed the set of international activities around the subject of BEPU methods benchmarking and development. From each of the activities a description of the objectives, development, main results, conclusions and recommendations (in case it is finalized) was presented. This

Uncertainty Characterization of Reactor Vessel Fracture Toughness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Fei; Modarres, Mohammad

2002-01-01

To perform fracture mechanics analysis of reactor vessel, fracture toughness (K Ic ) at various temperatures would be necessary. In a best estimate approach, K Ic uncertainties resulting from both lack of sufficient knowledge and randomness in some of the variables of K Ic must be characterized. Although it may be argued that there is only one type of uncertainty, which is lack of perfect knowledge about the subject under study, as a matter of practice K Ic uncertainties can be divided into two types: aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is related to uncertainty that is very difficult to reduce, if not impossible; epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, can be practically reduced. Distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties facilitates decision-making under uncertainty and allows for proper propagation of uncertainties in the computation process. Typically, epistemic uncertainties representing, for example, parameters of a model are sampled (to generate a 'snapshot', single-value of the parameters), but the totality of aleatory uncertainties is carried through the calculation as available. In this paper a description of an approach to account for these two types of uncertainties associated with K Ic has been provided. (authors)

Strategy under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

1997-01-01

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty budget for k0-NAA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robouch, P.; Arana, G.; Eguskiza, M.; Etxebarria, N.

2000-01-01

The concepts of the Guide to the expression of Uncertainties in Measurements for chemical measurements (GUM) and the recommendations of the Eurachem document 'Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Methods' are applied to set up the uncertainty budget for k 0 -NAA. The 'universally applicable spreadsheet technique', described by KRAGTEN, is applied to the k 0 -NAA basic equations for the computation of uncertainties. The variance components - individual standard uncertainties - highlight the contribution and the importance of the different parameters to be taken into account. (author)

International Code Centres Network. Summary Report of the 3rd Biennial Technical Meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Hyun-Kyung

2013-07-01

This report summarizes the proceedings of the third Technical Meeting of the International Code Centres Network held on 6-8 May in 2013. Ten experts from seven member states and four IAEA staff members attended the three-day meeting held at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna to discuss issues on uncertainty estimates of theoretical atomic and molecular data. The report includes discussions on data issues, meeting conclusions and recommendations for the IAEA Atomic and Molecular Data Unit. (author)

Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

2004-01-01

Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

Verification of uncertainty budgets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

2005-01-01

, and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

Humor Styles and the Intolerance of Uncertainty Model of Generalized Anxiety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas A. Kuiper

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Past research suggests that sense of humor may play a role in anxiety. The present study builds upon this work by exploring how individual differences in various humor styles, such as affiliative, self-enhancing, and self-defeating humor, may fit within a contemporary research model of anxiety. In this model, intolerance of uncertainty is a fundamental personality characteristic that heightens excessive worry, thus increasing anxiety. We further propose that greater intolerance of uncertainty may also suppress the use of adaptive humor (affiliate and self-enhancing, and foster the increased use of maladaptive self-defeating humor. Initial correlational analyses provide empirical support for these proposals. In addition, we found that excessive worry and affiliative humor both served as significant mediators. In particular, heightened intolerance of uncertainty lead to both excessive worry and a reduction in affiliative humor use, which, in turn, increased anxiety. We also explored potential humor mediating effects for each of the individual worry content domains in this model. These analyses confirmed the importance of affiliative humor as a mediator for worry pertaining to a wide range of content domains (e.g., relationships, lack of confidence, the future and work. These findings were then discussed in terms of a combined model that considers how humor styles may impact the social sharing of positive and negative emotions.

Entropic uncertainty relations-a survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wehner, Stephanie; Winter, Andreas

2010-01-01

Uncertainty relations play a central role in quantum mechanics. Entropic uncertainty relations in particular have gained significant importance within quantum information, providing the foundation for the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols. Yet, little is known about entropic uncertainty relations with more than two measurement settings. In the present survey, we review known results and open questions.

Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hessling, J P

2011-01-01

The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

75 FR 47141 - Review of Personal Radio Services Rules

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-04

... user-generated text messages on certain GMRS channels, and reviews the technical operating parameters..., and (3) preventing the marketing of ersatz devices using the term ``Personal Locator Beacon'', by... frequency by a channel number (para. 12); d. Express frequency tolerance requirements in terms of parts per...

Social Comparison in Coping With Occupational Uncertainty: Self-Improvement, Self-Enhancement, and the Regional Context.

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlova, Maria K; Lechner, Clemens M; Silbereisen, Rainer K

2018-04-01

Taking into account the regional context, we investigated whether social comparison in coping with occupational uncertainty served self-improvement (i.e., adaptive coping) or self-enhancement (i.e., subjective well-being). Respondents were 620 German adults aged 16 to 43, 59% female, who participated in three yearly follow-ups of a larger survey. The number of observations was 1,309 for contemporaneous and 1,079 for longitudinal analyses. Participants reported on perceived occupational uncertainty (e.g., risk of losing a job and difficulties with career planning), strategies for coping with it, and whether, and in which direction, they made social comparisons in coping with occupational uncertainty. Making social comparisons (vs. not) was associated with higher goal engagement and lower goal disengagement. Upward (as opposed to downward) comparison prospectively predicted higher goal engagement. Under high regional unemployment, upward comparison prospectively predicted lower goal disengagement, whereas making social comparisons was contemporaneously associated with higher subjective well-being. Higher regional unemployment rates predicted more frequent comparison, whereas comparison direction was predicted only by situational variables, especially personal control over the outcomes. When operationalized as a conscious mental action and put in the context of coping with occupational uncertainty, social comparison serves primarily self-improvement. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Technical Standards on the Safety Assessment of a HLW Repository in Other Countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sung Ho; Hwang, Yong Soo

2009-01-01

The basic function of HLW disposal system is to prevent excessive radio-nuclides being leaked from the repository in a short time. To do this, many technical standards should be developed and established on the components of disposal system. Safety assessment of a repository is considered as one of technical standards, because it produces quantitative results of the future evolution of a repository based on a reasonably simplified model. In this paper, we investigated other countries' regulations related to safely assessment focused on the assessment period, radiation dose limits and uncertainties of the assessment. Especially, in the investigation process of the USA regulations, the USA regulatory bodies' approach to assessment period and peak dose is worth taking into account in case of a conflict between peak dose from safety assessment and limited value in regulation.

Performance testing of UK personal dosimetry laboratories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshall, T.O.

1985-01-01

The proposed Ionising Radiations Regulations will require all UK personal dosimetry laboratories that monitor classified personnel to be approved for personal dosimetry by the Health and Safety Executive. It is suggested that these approvals should be based on general and supplementary criteria published by the British Calibration Service (BCS) for laboratory approval for the provision of personal dosimetry services. These criteria specify certain qualitative requirements and also indicate the need for regular tests of performance to be carried out to ensure constancy of dosimetric standards. This report concerns the latter. The status of the BCS criteria is discussed and the need for additional documents to cover new techniques and some modifications to existing documents is indicated. A means is described by which the technical performance of laboratories, concerned with personal monitoring for external radiations, can be assessed, both initially and ongoing. The costs to establish the scheme and operate it are also estimated. (author)

Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

2016-06-01

Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if other factors are involved. With added experience, uncertainty could be expected to diminish, but perhaps more influential are things like physician confidence, belief in the veracity of what is published, and even one's religious beliefs. In addition, it is plausible that the kind of practice a physician works in can affect the experience of uncertainty. Practicing physicians may not be immediately aware of these effects on how uncertainty is experienced in their clinical decision-making. We asked: (1) Does uncertainty and overconfidence bias decrease with years of practice? (2) What sociodemographic factors are independently associated with less recognition of uncertainty, in particular belief in God or other deity or deities, and how is atheism associated with recognition of uncertainty? (3) Do confidence bias (confidence that one's skill is greater than it actually is), degree of trust in the orthopaedic evidence, and degree of statistical sophistication correlate independently with recognition of uncertainty? We created a survey to establish an overall recognition of uncertainty score (four questions), trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (four questions), confidence bias (three questions), and statistical understanding (six questions). Seven hundred six members of the Science of Variation Group, a collaboration that aims to study variation in the definition and treatment of human illness, were approached to complete our survey. This group represents mainly orthopaedic surgeons specializing in trauma or hand and wrist surgery, practicing in Europe and North America, of whom the majority is involved in teaching. Approximately half of the group has more than 10 years

Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicles driving schedules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoso, Goncalo [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal); Stadler, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Center for Energy and Innovation Technologies (Austria); Bozchalui, Mohammed C. [NEC Laboratories American Inc., Irving, TX (United States); Sharma, Ratnesh [NEC Laboratories American Inc., Irving, TX (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbosa-Povoa, Ana [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal); Ferrao, Paulo [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal)

2013-12-06

The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem.

Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, M.M.R.

2012-01-01

We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

Summary report of a technical meeting on covariances of nuclear reaction data: GANDR project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trkov, A.

2005-04-01

Highlights of the technical meeting are given with respect to the detailed study of the feasibility of creating a tool for the Global Assessment of Nuclear Data Requirements (GANDR) based on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. GANDR was concluded to be fully practical on a modern computer of the desktop class. Participants debated their requirements and formulated recommendations and proposals for implementation. Specific tasks were assigned to participants with an estimated time for their execution. (author)

Mechanics and uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lemaire, Maurice

2014-01-01

Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

Needs of the CSAU uncertainty method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

2000-01-01

The use of best estimate codes for safety analysis requires quantification of the uncertainties. These uncertainties are inherently linked to the chosen safety analysis methodology. Worldwide, various methods were proposed for this quantification. The purpose of this paper was to identify the needs of the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and then to answer the needs. The specific procedural steps were combined from other methods for uncertainty evaluation and new tools and procedures were proposed. The uncertainty analysis approach and tools were then utilized for confirmatory study. The uncertainty was quantified for the RELAP5/MOD3.2 thermalhydraulic computer code. The results of the adapted CSAU approach to the small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SB LOCA) show that the adapted CSAU can be used for any thermal-hydraulic safety analysis with uncertainty evaluation. However, it was indicated that there are still some limitations in the CSAU approach that need to be resolved. (author)

Uncertainty in social dilemmas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

2007-01-01

This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

CEC/USDOE workshop on uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elderkin, C.E.; Kelly, G.N.

1990-07-01

Any measured or assessed quantity contains uncertainty. The quantitative estimation of such uncertainty is becoming increasingly important, especially in assuring that safety requirements are met in design, regulation, and operation of nuclear installations. The CEC/USDOE Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis, held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, on November 13 through 16, 1989, was organized jointly by the Commission of European Communities (CEC's) Radiation Protection Research program, dealing with uncertainties throughout the field of consequence assessment, and DOE's Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) program, concerned with the particular uncertainties in time and space variant transport and dispersion. The workshop brought together US and European scientists who have been developing or applying uncertainty analysis methodologies, conducted in a variety of contexts, often with incomplete knowledge of the work of others in this area. Thus, it was timely to exchange views and experience, identify limitations of approaches to uncertainty and possible improvements, and enhance the interface between developers and users of uncertainty analysis methods. Furthermore, the workshop considered the extent to which consistent, rigorous methods could be used in various applications within consequence assessment. 3 refs

Refinement of the concept of uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Penrod, J

2001-04-01

To analyse the conceptual maturity of uncertainty; to develop an expanded theoretical definition of uncertainty; to advance the concept using methods of concept refinement; and to analyse congruency with the conceptualization of uncertainty presented in the theory of hope, enduring, and suffering. Uncertainty is of concern in nursing as people experience complex life events surrounding health. In an earlier nursing study that linked the concepts of hope, enduring, and suffering into a single theoretical scheme, a state best described as 'uncertainty' arose. This study was undertaken to explore how this conceptualization fit with the scientific literature on uncertainty and to refine the concept. Initially, a concept analysis using advanced methods described by Morse, Hupcey, Mitcham and colleagues was completed. The concept was determined to be partially mature. A theoretical definition was derived and techniques of concept refinement using the literature as data were applied. The refined concept was found to be congruent with the concept of uncertainty that had emerged in the model of hope, enduring and suffering. Further investigation is needed to explore the extent of probabilistic reasoning and the effects of confidence and control on feelings of uncertainty and certainty.

Uncertainty in oil projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Limperopoulos, G.J.

1995-01-01

This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

Science.gov (United States)

Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Hark, Frank; Al Hassan, Mohammad

2016-01-01

NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

CERN Document Server

Ayyub, Bilal

2005-01-01

Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

3. encounter of competent persons in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

David, C.

2002-12-01

Daily, several thousand of competent persons control the use of ionizing radiations and radioactive sources, in areas as different than research, industry and medicine. The access to the new data, regulations, technical or practical principles and the sharing of experiences constitute in this field necessary aspects to keep the quality of their interventions. (N.C.)

An examination of the relationships among uncertainty, appraisal, and information-seeking behavior proposed in uncertainty management theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rains, Stephen A; Tukachinsky, Riva

2015-01-01

Uncertainty management theory (UMT; Brashers, 2001, 2007) is rooted in the assumption that, as opposed to being inherently negative, health-related uncertainty is appraised for its meaning. Appraisals influence subsequent behaviors intended to manage uncertainty, such as information seeking. This study explores the connections among uncertainty, appraisal, and information-seeking behavior proposed in UMT. A laboratory study was conducted in which participants (N = 157) were primed to feel and desire more or less uncertainty about skin cancer and were given the opportunity to search for skin cancer information using the World Wide Web. The results show that desired uncertainty level predicted appraisal intensity, and appraisal intensity predicted information-seeking depth-although the latter relationship was in the opposite direction of what was expected.

Training and qualification program for nuclear criticality safety technical staff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, R.G.; Worley, C.A.

1996-01-01

A training and qualification program for nuclear criticality safety technical staff personnel has been developed and implemented. The program is compliant with requirements and provides evidence that a systematic approach has been taken to indoctrinate new technical staff. Development involved task analysis to determine activities where training was necessary and the standard which must be attained to qualify. Structured mentoring is used where experienced personnel interact with candidates using checksheets to guide candidates through various steps and to provide evidence that steps have been accomplished. Credit can be taken for the previous experience of personnel by means of evaluation boards which can credit or modify checksheet steps. Considering just the wealth of business practice and site specific information a new person at a facility needs to assimilate, the program has been effective in indoctrinating new technical staff personnel and integrating them into a productive role. The program includes continuing training

Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, T.A. da

1988-01-01

The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

Uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements, part II: a redefinition of uncertainty and an estimator method

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hening

2018-01-01

This paper is the second (Part II) in a series of two papers (Part I and Part II). Part I has quantitatively discussed the fundamental limitations of the t-interval method for uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements. This paper (Part II) reveals that the t-interval is an ‘exact’ answer to a wrong question; it is actually misused in uncertainty estimation. This paper proposes a redefinition of uncertainty, based on the classical theory of errors and the theory of point estimation, and a modification of the conventional approach to estimating measurement uncertainty. It also presents an asymptotic procedure for estimating the z-interval. The proposed modification is to replace the t-based uncertainty with an uncertainty estimator (mean- or median-unbiased). The uncertainty estimator method is an approximate answer to the right question to uncertainty estimation. The modified approach provides realistic estimates of uncertainty, regardless of whether the population standard deviation is known or unknown, or if the sample size is small or large. As an application example of the modified approach, this paper presents a resolution to the Du-Yang paradox (i.e. Paradox 2), one of the three paradoxes caused by the misuse of the t-interval in uncertainty estimation.

Uncertainty quantification theory, implementation, and applications

CERN Document Server

Smith, Ralph C

2014-01-01

The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers ca...

Spectral Uncertainties: A Review of Precarity and Loss: On Certain and Uncertain Properties of Life and Work by Tadeusz Rachwał

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Lorek-Jezińska

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Precarity and uncertainty recur in numerous critical accounts of the present to stress the sense of social and personal insecurity resulting from global changes and increasing inequalities. This review discusses Precarity and Loss: On Certain and Uncertain Properties of Life and Work by Tadeusz Rachwał (2017 as an examination of the major philosophical and social uncertainties of the present and their indebtedness to the (uncertainties of the past. The article situates Rachwał’s book in the context of Judith Butler’s reflections on precariousness, Guy Standing’s study on the precariat, and Zygmunt Bauman’s concept of liquidity in order to unravel some of the answers it offers to the overpowering sense of vulnerability.

Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling I: Uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenwick, John D.; Nahum, Alan E.

2001-01-01

A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The relationship between planned rectal dose-distributions and incidences of bleeding has been analyzed, showing that the rate of bleeding falls significantly as the extent of the rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level of more than 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions, due to sources of uncertainty such as patient setup error, rectal wall movement and variation in the absolute rectal wall surface area. In this paper estimates of the differences between planned and treated rectal dose-distribution parameters are obtained for the RMH/ICR nonescalated conformal technique, working from a distribution of setup errors observed during the RMH/ICR trial, movement data supplied by Lebesque and colleagues derived from repeat CT scans, and estimates of rectal circumference variations extracted from the literature. Setup errors and wall movement are found to cause only limited systematic differences between mean treated and planned rectal dose-distribution parameter values, but introduce considerable uncertainties into the treated values of some dose-distribution parameters: setup errors lead to 22% and 9% relative uncertainties in the highly dosed fraction of the rectal wall and the wall average dose, respectively, with wall movement leading to 21% and 9% relative uncertainties. Estimates obtained from the literature of the uncertainty in the absolute surface area of the distensible rectal wall are of the order of 13%-18%. In a subsequent paper the impact of these uncertainties on analyses of the relationship between incidences of bleeding

Approach to resolution of geologic uncertainty in the licensing of a high-level-waste repository in tuff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neal, J.T.

1983-01-01

Resolution of uncertainty in geological information is an essential element in the licensing process for a geologic repository. Evaluation of these uncertainties within the licensing framework established by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is required. The Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations (NNWSI), in focusing its site characterization program on unsaturated tuff, has developed a logic hierarchy of technical issues, including key issues, issues, and information needs. Key issues are statements of major requirements whose lack could be disqualifying. An example of a key issue is the demonstration of radionuclide containment and isolation within the required release limits and transport time set by the EPA and NRC. Key issues are broken down into issues, such as the groundwater flow time to the accessible environment. Resolving uncertainty ultimately comes back to satisfying individual information needs that collectively form issues. Hydraulic conductivity is an example of an information need required to determine groundwater flow rate. Sources of uncertainty often arise in either amount, quality, or other limitations in geological data. The hierarchical structuring of geological information needs provides a perspective that allows proportionate attention to be placed on various site characterization activities, and to view them within the whole range of licensing issues that must be satisfied to ensure public health and safety. However, it may not prevent an issue from being contentious, as some geological questions are known to be emotion-laden. The mitigation of uncertainty in geological information ultimately will depend on the validity and credibility of the information presented during the licensing process

A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buslik, A.

1994-01-01

A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

2016-01-01

We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Najm, Habib

2016-01-05

We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.