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Sample records for periods hazard ratio

  1. A balanced hazard ratio for risk group evaluation from survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branders, Samuel; Dupont, Pierre

    2015-07-30

    Common clinical studies assess the quality of prognostic factors, such as gene expression signatures, clinical variables or environmental factors, and cluster patients into various risk groups. Typical examples include cancer clinical trials where patients are clustered into high or low risk groups. Whenever applied to survival data analysis, such groups are intended to represent patients with similar survival odds and to select the most appropriate therapy accordingly. The relevance of such risk groups, and of the related prognostic factors, is typically assessed through the computation of a hazard ratio. We first stress three limitations of assessing risk groups through the hazard ratio: (1) it may promote the definition of arbitrarily unbalanced risk groups; (2) an apparently optimal group hazard ratio can be largely inconsistent with the p-value commonly associated to it; and (3) some marginal changes between risk group proportions may lead to highly different hazard ratio values. Those issues could lead to inappropriate comparisons between various prognostic factors. Next, we propose the balanced hazard ratio to solve those issues. This new performance metric keeps an intuitive interpretation and is as simple to compute. We also show how the balanced hazard ratio leads to a natural cut-off choice to define risk groups from continuous risk scores. The proposed methodology is validated through controlled experiments for which a prescribed cut-off value is defined by design. Further results are also reported on several cancer prognosis studies, and the proposed methodology could be applied more generally to assess the quality of any prognostic markers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Periodic equivalence ratio modulation method and apparatus for controlling combustion instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, George A.; Janus, Michael C.; Griffith, Richard A.

    2000-01-01

    The periodic equivalence ratio modulation (PERM) method and apparatus significantly reduces and/or eliminates unstable conditions within a combustion chamber. The method involves modulating the equivalence ratio for the combustion device, such that the combustion device periodically operates outside of an identified unstable oscillation region. The equivalence ratio is modulated between preselected reference points, according to the shape of the oscillation region and operating parameters of the system. Preferably, the equivalence ratio is modulated from a first stable condition to a second stable condition, and, alternatively, the equivalence ratio is modulated from a stable condition to an unstable condition. The method is further applicable to multi-nozzle combustor designs, whereby individual nozzles are alternately modulated from stable to unstable conditions. Periodic equivalence ratio modulation (PERM) is accomplished by active control involving periodic, low frequency fuel modulation, whereby low frequency fuel pulses are injected into the main fuel delivery. Importantly, the fuel pulses are injected at a rate so as not to affect the desired time-average equivalence ratio for the combustion device.

  3. Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on producing flash flood hazard susceptibility maps (FFHSM using frequency ratio (FR and statistical index (SI models in the Xiqu Gully (XQG of Beijing, China. First, a total of 85 flash flood hazard locations (n = 85 were surveyed in the field and plotted using geographic information system (GIS software. Based on the flash flood hazard locations, a flood hazard inventory map was built. Seventy percent (n = 60 of the flooding hazard locations were randomly selected for building the models. The remaining 30% (n = 25 of the flooded hazard locations were used for validation. Considering that the XQG used to be a coal mining area, coalmine caves and subsidence caused by coal mining exist in this catchment, as well as many ground fissures. Thus, this study took the subsidence risk level into consideration for FFHSM. The ten conditioning parameters were elevation, slope, curvature, land use, geology, soil texture, subsidence risk area, stream power index (SPI, topographic wetness index (TWI, and short-term heavy rain. This study also tested different classification schemes for the values for each conditional parameter and checked their impacts on the results. The accuracy of the FFHSM was validated using area under the curve (AUC analysis. Classification accuracies were 86.61%, 83.35%, and 78.52% using frequency ratio (FR-natural breaks, statistical index (SI-natural breaks and FR-manual classification schemes, respectively. Associated prediction accuracies were 83.69%, 81.22%, and 74.23%, respectively. It was found that FR modeling using a natural breaks classification method was more appropriate for generating FFHSM for the Xiqu Gully.

  4. Linear theory period ratios for surface helium enhanced double-mode Cepheids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, A.N.; Hodson, S.W.; King, D.S.

    1979-01-01

    Linear nonadiabatic theory period ratios for models of double-mode Cepheids with their two periods between 1 and 7 days have been computed, assuming differing amounts and depths of surface helium enhancement. Evolution theory masses and luminosities are found to be consistent with the observed periods. All models give Pi 1 /Pi 0 approx. =0.70 as observed for the 11 known variables, contrary to previous theoretical conclusions. The composition structure that best fits the period ratios has the helium mass fraction in the outer 10 -3 of the stellar mass (T< or =250,000 K) as 0.65, similar to a previous model for the triple-mode pulsator AC And. This enrichment can be established by a Cepheid wind and downward inverted μ gradient instability mixing in the lifetime of these low-mass classical Cepheids

  5. Importance of historical seismicity in the evaluation of large return period hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, C.S.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reports the results from an historical investigation on earthquake activity in Portugal based on data collected from original sources. A detailed revision of earthquake catalogues in what concerns date of occurrence, isosseismal maps, epicentral location, magnitude and duration of vibration was made for most of the 260 events identified in the period 1000 to 1900. Introducing this new piece of information which exhibits a much higher degree of quality into standard hazard models, uncertainties on final estimates for the zones of large return periods, RP, (RP > 200 years) are greatly reduced

  6. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xueqin [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); School of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Li, Ning [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yuan, Shuai, E-mail: syuan@nmemc.org.cn [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China)

    2015-12-15

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  7. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

    2015-01-01

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  8. Long-period amplification in deep alluvial basins and consequences for site-specific probabilistic seismic-hazard: the case of Castelleone in the Po Plain (Northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barani, S.; Mascandola, C.; Massa, M.; Spallarossa, D.

    2017-12-01

    The recent Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy) occurred at the end of the first half of 2012 with main shock of Mw6.1 highlighted the importance of studying site effects in the Po Plain, the larger and deeper sedimentary basin in Italy. As has long been known, long-period amplification related to deep sedimentary basins can significantly affect the characteristics of the ground-motion induced by strong earthquakes. It follows that the effects of deep sedimentary deposits on ground shaking require special attention during the definition of the design seismic action. The work presented here analyzes the impact of deep-soil discontinuities on ground-motion amplification, with particular focus on long-period probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. The study focuses on the site of Castelleone, where a seismic station of the Italian National Seismic Network has been recording since 2009. Our study includes both experimental and numerical site response analyses. Specifically, extensive active and passive geophysical measurements were carried out in order to define a detailed shear-wave velocity (VS) model to be used in the numerical analyses. These latter are needed to assess the site-specific ground-motion hazard. Besides classical seismic refraction profiles and multichannel analysis of surface waves, we analyzed ambient vibration measurements in both single and array configurations. The VS profile was determined via joint inversion of the experimental phase-velocity dispersion curve with the ellipticity curve derived from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios. The profile shows two main discontinuities at depths of around 160 and 1350 m, respectively. The probabilistic site-specific hazard was assessed in terms of both spectral acceleration and displacement. A partially non-ergodic approach was adopted. We have found that the spectral acceleration hazard is barely sensitive to long-period (up to 10 s) amplification related to the deeper discontinuity whereas the

  9. DISK-PLANETS INTERACTIONS AND THE DIVERSITY OF PERIOD RATIOS IN KEPLER'S MULTI-PLANETARY SYSTEMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruteau, Clement; Papaloizou, John C. B.

    2013-01-01

    The Kepler mission is dramatically increasing the number of planets known in multi-planetary systems. Many adjacent planets have orbital period ratios near resonant values, with a tendency to be larger than required for exact first-order mean-motion resonances. This feature has been shown to be a natural outcome of orbital circularization of resonant planetary pairs due to star-planet tidal interactions. However, this feature holds in multi-planetary systems with periods longer than 10 days, in which tidal circularization is unlikely to provide efficient divergent evolution of the planets' orbits to explain these orbital period ratios. Gravitational interactions between planets and their parent protoplanetary disk may instead provide efficient divergent evolution. For a planet pair embedded in a disk, we show that interactions between a planet and the wake of its companion can reverse convergent migration and significantly increase the period ratio from a near-resonant value. Divergent evolution due to wake-planet interactions is particularly efficient when at least one of the planets opens a partial gap around its orbit. This mechanism could help account for the diversity of period ratios in Kepler's multiple systems from super-Earth to sub-Jovian planets with periods greater than about 10 days. Diversity is also expected for pairs of planets massive enough to merge their gap. The efficiency of wake-planet interactions is then much reduced, but convergent migration may stall with a variety of period ratios depending on the density structure in the common gap. This is illustrated for the Kepler-46 system, for which we reproduce the period ratio of Kepler-46b and c

  10. The median hazard ratio: a useful measure of variance and general contextual effects in multilevel survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Wagner, Philippe; Merlo, Juan

    2017-03-15

    Multilevel data occurs frequently in many research areas like health services research and epidemiology. A suitable way to analyze such data is through the use of multilevel regression models (MLRM). MLRM incorporate cluster-specific random effects which allow one to partition the total individual variance into between-cluster variation and between-individual variation. Statistically, MLRM account for the dependency of the data within clusters and provide correct estimates of uncertainty around regression coefficients. Substantively, the magnitude of the effect of clustering provides a measure of the General Contextual Effect (GCE). When outcomes are binary, the GCE can also be quantified by measures of heterogeneity like the Median Odds Ratio (MOR) calculated from a multilevel logistic regression model. Time-to-event outcomes within a multilevel structure occur commonly in epidemiological and medical research. However, the Median Hazard Ratio (MHR) that corresponds to the MOR in multilevel (i.e., 'frailty') Cox proportional hazards regression is rarely used. Analogously to the MOR, the MHR is the median relative change in the hazard of the occurrence of the outcome when comparing identical subjects from two randomly selected different clusters that are ordered by risk. We illustrate the application and interpretation of the MHR in a case study analyzing the hazard of mortality in patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction at hospitals in Ontario, Canada. We provide R code for computing the MHR. The MHR is a useful and intuitive measure for expressing cluster heterogeneity in the outcome and, thereby, estimating general contextual effects in multilevel survival analysis. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Indications of a Scarring Effect of Sickness Absence Periods in a Cohort of Higher Educated Self-Employed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnvoord, Liesbeth E. C.; Brouwer, Sandra; Buitenhuis, Jan; van der Klink, Jac J. L.; de Boer, Michiel R.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Little is known regarding incidence and recurrence of sickness absence in self-employed. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the number of prior episodes of sickness absence on the risk of subsequent periods of sickness absence in higher educated self-employed. Methods In a historic register study based on the files of a Dutch private disability insurance company all sickness absence periods of 30 days or more were analysed. Results A total of 15,868 insured persons contributed 141,188 person years to the study. In total, 5608 periods of sickness absence occurred during follow-up. The hazard of experiencing a new period of sickness absence increased with every previous period, ranging from a hazard ratio of 2.83 in case of one previous period of sickness absence to a hazard ratio of 6.72 in case of four previous periods. This effect was found for both men and women and for all diagnostic categories of the first period of sickness absence. Conclusions Our study shows that for all diagnostic categories the hazard of experiencing a recurrence of sickness absence is appreciably higher than for experiencing a first episode. This suggests that this increased hazard may be related to the occurrence of sickness absence itself rather than related to characteristics of the insured person or of the medical condition. These findings could indicate that sickness absence periods may have a scarring effect on the self-employed person experiencing the sickness absence. PMID:27213963

  12. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

  13. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-04-01

    Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

  14. Relative Hazard Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DL Strenge; MK White; RD Stenner; WB Andrews

    1999-01-01

    The methodology presented in this document was developed to provide a means of calculating the RH ratios to use in developing useful graphic illustrations. The RH equation, as presented in this methodology, is primarily a collection of key factors relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected risk management activities. The RH equation has the potential for much broader application than generating risk profiles. For example, it can be used to compare one risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to a fixed baseline as was done for the risk profiles. If the appropriate source term data are available, it could be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated hazards. These estimated values of hazard could then be examined to help understand which risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions at a site. Graphics could be generated from these absolute hazard values to compare high-hazard conditions. If the RH equation is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify the estimated absolute hazard values (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard estimation)

  15. INTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.J. Garrett

    2005-02-17

    The purpose of this internal hazards analysis is to identify and document the internal hazards and potential initiating events associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain. Internal hazards are those hazards presented by the operation of the facility and by its associated processes that can potentially lead to a radioactive release or cause a radiological hazard. In contrast to external hazards, internal hazards do not involve natural phenomena and external man-made hazards. This internal hazards analysis was performed in support of the preclosure safety analysis and the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. The methodology for this analysis provides a systematic means to identify internal hazards and potential initiating events that may result in a radiological hazard or radiological release during the repository preclosure period. These hazards are documented in tables of potential internal hazards and potential initiating events (Section 6.6) for input to the repository event sequence categorization process. The results of this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply to the performance of event sequence analyses for the repository preclosure period. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that internal hazards that have not been previously evaluated are identified.

  16. INTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS FOR LICENSE APPLICATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrett, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this internal hazards analysis is to identify and document the internal hazards and potential initiating events associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain. Internal hazards are those hazards presented by the operation of the facility and by its associated processes that can potentially lead to a radioactive release or cause a radiological hazard. In contrast to external hazards, internal hazards do not involve natural phenomena and external man-made hazards. This internal hazards analysis was performed in support of the preclosure safety analysis and the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. The methodology for this analysis provides a systematic means to identify internal hazards and potential initiating events that may result in a radiological hazard or radiological release during the repository preclosure period. These hazards are documented in tables of potential internal hazards and potential initiating events (Section 6.6) for input to the repository event sequence categorization process. The results of this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply to the performance of event sequence analyses for the repository preclosure period. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that internal hazards that have not been previously evaluated are identified

  17. Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Financial Sustainability Ratio pada Bank Umum Swast Nasional Non Devisa Periode 1995-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Spica Almilia

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is aimed to test the consistency of time period model, whether the information that previously affects today’s performance can be used to predict the performance in the future, and how the consistency of Indonesia banking financial prediction model formulation equation in order to detect bank condition and performance in the period of pre-economic crisis (1995-1996, during economic crisis (1997-1999 or post-economic crisis (2000-2005 is since bank condition and health is the interest of all relevant parties namely bank owner and manager, customers, Bank Indonesia in its capacity as the supervisor and builder, and the government. The samples are Non Foreign Exchange National Private Banks listed in Indonesian Banking Directory during the period after economic crisis in 1995 – 2005 and Indonesian Financial Economic Statistics Monthly Statement for economic macro indicator. The sampling is performed by means of purposive method (purposive sampling. Dependent Variable in this study is Financial Sustainability Ratio and independent variable in this study is Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Loan, Return On Assets, Operational Cost Ratio to Operational Income, Loan to Deposit Ratio, Money Supply Sensitivity, General Customer Price Index Sensitivity and SBI Interest Rate Sensitivity. The result of this study shows that model financial sustainability ratio did not have structural stabilization in 1999 – 2005. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Penelitian ini betujuan untuk menguji konsistensi model prediksi kinerja keuangan pada Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa periode 1995-2005. Variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kinerja keuangan Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa yang diproksikan melalui Financial Sustainability Ratio (FSR. Sampel yang terpilih dalam penelitian ini dengan metode purposive sampling berjumlah 28 bank umum swasta nasional non devisa yang terdaftar di direktori Bank Indonesia selama tahun

  18. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    methodology, there is potential for general applicability to other facilities across the DOE complex. As such, both a general methodology and a specific approach intended for INL are described in this document. The general methodology proposed in this white paper is referred to as the “seismic hazard periodic review methodology,” or SHPRM. It presents a graded approach for SDC-3, SDC-4 and SDC-5 facilities that can be applied in any risk-informed regulatory environment once risk-objectives appropriate for the framework are developed. While the methodology was developed for seismic hazard considerations, it can also be directly applied to other types of natural hazards.

  19. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    methodology, there is potential for general applicability to other facilities across the DOE complex. As such, both a general methodology and a specific approach intended for INL are described in this document. The general methodology proposed in this white paper is referred to as the “seismic hazard periodic review methodology,” or SHPRM. It presents a graded approach for SDC-3, SDC-4 and SDC-5 facilities that can be applied in any risk-informed regulatory environment by once risk-objectives appropriate for the framework are developed. While the methodology was developed for seismic hazard considerations, it can also be directly applied to other types of natural hazards.

  20. Design and Analysis of a Triple Stop-band Filter Using Ratioed Periodical Defected Microstrip Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Tao; Wang, Yanyan; Li, Yingsong

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, a triple stop-band filter with a ratioed periodical defected microstrip structure is proposed for wireless communication applications. The proposed ratioed periodical defected microstrip structures are spiral slots, which are embedded into a 50 Ω microstrip line to obtain multiple stop-bands. The performance of the proposed triple stop-band filter is investigated numerically and experimentally. Moreover, the equivalent circuit model of the proposed filter is also established and discussed. The results are given to verify that the proposed triple stop-band filter has three stop bands at 3.3 GHz, 5.2 GHz, 6.8 GHz to reject the unwanted signals, which is promising for integrating into UWB communication systems to efficiently prevent the potential interferences from unexpected narrowband signals such as WiMAX, WLAN and RFID communication systems.

  1. Long-term orbital period behaviour of low mass ratio contact binaries GR Vir and FP Boo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ćetinkaya, Halil; Soydugan, Faruk

    2017-02-01

    In this study, we investigated orbital period variations of two low mass ratio contact binaries GR Vir and FP Boo based on published minima times. From the O-C analysis, it was found that FP Boo indicates orbital period decrease while the period of GR Vir is increasing. Mass transfer process was used to explain increase and decrease in the orbital periods. In the O-C diagrams of both systems periodic variations also exist. Cyclic changes can be explained as being the result of a light-travel time effect via a third component around the eclipsing binaries. In order to interpret of cyclic orbital period changes for GR Vir, which has late-type components, possible magnetic activity cycles of the components have been also considered.

  2. Seismic hazard studies in Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abuo El-Ela A. Mohamed

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The study of earthquake activity and seismic hazard assessment of Egypt is very important due to the great and rapid spreading of large investments in national projects, especially the nuclear power plant that will be held in the northern part of Egypt. Although Egypt is characterized by low seismicity, it has experienced occurring of damaging earthquake effect through its history. The seismotectonic sitting of Egypt suggests that large earthquakes are possible particularly along the Gulf of Aqaba–Dead Sea transform, the Subduction zone along the Hellenic and Cyprean Arcs, and the Northern Red Sea triple junction point. In addition some inland significant sources at Aswan, Dahshour, and Cairo-Suez District should be considered. The seismic hazard for Egypt is calculated utilizing a probabilistic approach (for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° within a logic-tree framework. Alternative seismogenic models and ground motion scaling relationships are selected to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard values on rock were calculated to create contour maps for four ground motion spectral periods and for different return periods. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra for rock sites for different 25 periods, and the probabilistic hazard curves for Cairo, and Alexandria cities are graphed. The peak ground acceleration (PGA values were found close to the Gulf of Aqaba and it was about 220 gal for 475 year return period. While the lowest (PGA values were detected in the western part of the western desert and it is less than 25 gal.

  3. Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

    2018-04-01

    An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

  4. Flood hazards for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yen, B.C.

    1988-01-01

    Flooding hazards for nuclear power plants may be caused by various external geophysical events. In this paper the hydrologic hazards from flash floods, river floods and heavy rain at the plant site are considered. Depending on the mode of analysis, two types of hazard evaluation are identified: 1) design hazard which is the probability of flooding over an expected service period, and 2) operational hazard which deals with real-time forecasting of the probability of flooding of an incoming event. Hazard evaluation techniques using flood frequency analysis can only be used for type 1) design hazard. Evaluation techniques using rainfall-runoff simulation or multi-station correlation can be used for both types of hazard prediction. (orig.)

  5. Survival analysis of factors affecting incidence risk of Salmonella Dublin in Danish dairy herds during a 7-year surveillance period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Dohoo, Ian

    2012-01-01

    , proportional hazard model allowing for recurrence within herds. During October to December the hazard of failures was higher (hazard ratio HR=3.4, P=0.0005) than the rest of the year. Accounting for the delay in bulk-tank milk antibody responses to S. Dublin infection, this indicates that introduction......-quarters (YQs), either at the start of the study period or after recovery from infection. Survival analysis was performed on a dataset including 6931 dairy herds with 118969 YQs at risk, in which 1523 failures (new infection events) occurred. Predictors obtained from register data were tested in a multivariable...

  6. Neoclassical viscosities in NCSX and QPS with few toroidal periods and low aspect ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, S.; Mikkelsen, D.R.; Ku, L.P.; Mynick, H.E.; Zarnstorff, M.C.; Spong, D.A.; Hirshman, S.P.

    2008-01-01

    Previously reported benchmarking examples for the analytical formulas of neoclassical viscosities were made implicitly assuming applications in a future integrated simulation system for the LHD (Large Helical Device). Therefore the toroidal period numbers assumed there were mainly N=10. In this kind of calculation, however, an implicit (or sometimes explicit) assumption of ι/N<<1 is sometimes included. This assumption is included not only in simplified bounce averaged drift kinetic equations for ripple diffusions, but also in the equation before the averaging for non-bounce-averaged effects determining neoclassical parallel viscosity and the banana-plateau diffusions. To clarify the applicability of the analytical methods even for configurations with extremely low toroidal period numbers (required for low aspect ratios), we show here recent benchmarking examples in NCSX (National Compact Stellarator Experiment) with N=3 and QPS (Quasi-poloidal Stellarator) with N=2. (author)

  7. Hazardous waste sites and housing appreciation rates

    OpenAIRE

    McCluskey, Jill Jennifer; Rausser, Gordon C

    2000-01-01

    The dynamic effect of a hazardous waste site is analyzed by investigating the causal relationship between housing appreciation rates and house location in relation to a hazardous waste site using resale data from individual sales transactions in Dallas County, Texas. The results indicate that in the period in which the hazardous waste site was identified and cleanup occurred, residential property owners in close proximity to the hazardous waste site experienced lower housing appreciation rate...

  8. Hazardous drinking and its association with homelessness among veterans in care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghose, T; Fiellin, D A; Gordon, A J; Metraux, S; Goetz, M B; Blackstock, O; McInnes, K; Rodriguez-Barradas, M C; Justice, A C

    2013-09-01

    While scholarship on alcohol use and homelessness has focused on the impact of alcohol abuse and dependence, little is known about the effects of lower levels of misuse such as hazardous use. Veterans receiving care in the Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care System (VA) constitute a population that is vulnerable to alcohol misuse and homelessness. This research examines the effects of hazardous drinking on homelessness in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, a sample of 2898 older veterans (mean age=50.2), receiving care in 8 VAs across the country. Logistic regression models examined the associations between (1) hazardous drinking at baseline and homelessness at 1-year follow-up, (2) transitions into and out of hazardous drinking from baseline to follow-up and homelessness at follow-up, and (3) transitioning to hazardous drinking and transitioning to homelessness from baseline to follow-up during that same time-period. After controlling for other correlates including alcohol dependence, hazardous drinking at baseline increased the risk of homelessness at follow-up (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.02, 1.88). Transitioning to hazardous drinking more than doubled the risk of homelessness at follow-up (AOR=2.42, 95% CI=1.41, 4.15), while more than doubling the risk of transitioning from being housed at baseline to being homeless at follow-up (AOR=2.49, 95% CI=1.30, 4.79). Early intervention that seeks to prevent transitioning into hazardous drinking could increase housing stability among veterans. Brief interventions which have been shown to be effective at lower levels of alcohol use should be implemented with veterans in VA care. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  9. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

    2006-12-01

    thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.

  10. The prospect of hazardous sludge reduction through gasification process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakiki, R.; Wikaningrum, T.; Kurniawan, T.

    2018-01-01

    Biological sludge generated from centralized industrial WWTP is classified as toxic and hazardous waste based on the Indonesian’s Government Regulation No. 101/2014. The amount of mass and volume of sludge produced have an impact in the cost to manage or to dispose. The main objective of this study is to identify the opportunity of gasification technology which can be applied to reduce hazardous sludge quantity before sending to the final disposal. This preliminary study covers the technical and economic assessment of the application of gasification process, which was a combination of lab-scale experimental results and assumptions based on prior research. The results showed that the process was quite effective in reducing the amount and volume of hazardous sludge which results in reducing the disposal costs without causing negative impact on the environment. The reduced mass are moisture and volatile carbon which are decomposed, while residues are fix carbon and other minerals which are not decomposed by thermal process. The economical simulation showed that the project will achieve payback period in 2.5 years, IRR value of 53 % and BC Ratio of 2.3. The further study in the pilot scale to obtain the more accurate design and calculations is recommended.

  11. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

    1999-01-01

    Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

  12. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Tanner

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.. Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion, 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion, and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions

  13. Comparison of exact, efron and breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatekurohman, Mohamat; Nurmala, Nita; Anggraeni, Dian

    2018-04-01

    Lungs are the most important organ, in the case of respiratory system. Problems related to disorder of the lungs are various, i.e. pneumonia, emphysema, tuberculosis and lung cancer. Comparing all those problems, lung cancer is the most harmful. Considering about that, the aim of this research applies survival analysis and factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patient using comparison of exact, Efron and Breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model. The data applied are based on the medical records of lung cancer patients in Jember Paru-paru hospital on 2016, east java, Indonesia. The factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patients can be classified into several criteria, i.e. sex, age, hemoglobin, leukocytes, erythrocytes, sedimentation rate of blood, therapy status, general condition, body weight. The result shows that exact method of stratified cox regression model is better than other. On the other hand, the endurance of the patients is affected by their age and the general conditions.

  14. Two-stage meta-analysis of survival data from individual participants using percentile ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Jessica K; Farewell, Vern T; Siannis, Fotios; Tierney, Jayne; Higgins, Julian P T

    2012-01-01

    Methods for individual participant data meta-analysis of survival outcomes commonly focus on the hazard ratio as a measure of treatment effect. Recently, Siannis et al. (2010, Statistics in Medicine 29:3030–3045) proposed the use of percentile ratios as an alternative to hazard ratios. We describe a novel two-stage method for the meta-analysis of percentile ratios that avoids distributional assumptions at the study level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22825835

  15. Changing tides: Adaptive monitoring, assessment, and management of pharmaceutical hazards in the environment through time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaw, Sally; Brooks, Bryan W

    2016-04-01

    Pharmaceuticals are ubiquitous contaminants in aquatic ecosystems. Adaptive monitoring, assessment, and management programs will be required to reduce the environmental hazards of pharmaceuticals of concern. Potentially underappreciated factors that drive the environmental dose of pharmaceuticals include regulatory approvals, marketing campaigns, pharmaceutical subsidies and reimbursement schemes, and societal acceptance. Sales data for 5 common antidepressants (duloxetine [Cymbalta], escitalopram [Lexapro], venlafaxine [Effexor], bupropion [Wellbutrin], and sertraline [Zoloft]) in the United States from 2004 to 2008 were modeled to explore how environmental hazards in aquatic ecosystems changed after patents were obtained or expired. Therapeutic hazard ratios for Effexor and Lexapro did not exceed 1; however, the therapeutic hazard ratio for Zoloft declined whereas the therapeutic hazard ratio for Cymbalta increased as a function of patent protection and sale patterns. These changes in therapeutic hazard ratios highlight the importance of considering current and future drivers of pharmaceutical use when prioritizing pharmaceuticals for water quality monitoring programs. When urban systems receiving discharges of environmental contaminants are examined, water quality efforts should identify, prioritize, and select target analytes presently in commerce for effluent monitoring and surveillance. © 2015 SETAC.

  16. Carbon Structure Hazard Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, Tommy; Greene, Ben; Porter, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Carbon composite structures are widely used in virtually all advanced technology industries for a multitude of applications. The high strength-to-weight ratio and resistance to aggressive service environments make them highly desirable. Automotive, aerospace, and petroleum industries extensively use, and will continue to use, this enabling technology. As a result of this broad range of use, field and test personnel are increasingly exposed to hazards associated with these structures. No single published document exists to address the hazards and make recommendations for the hazard controls required for the different exposure possibilities from damaged structures including airborne fibers, fly, and dust. The potential for personnel exposure varies depending on the application or manipulation of the structure. The effect of exposure to carbon hazards is not limited to personnel, protection of electronics and mechanical equipment must be considered as well. The various exposure opportunities defined in this document include pre-manufacturing fly and dust, the cured structure, manufacturing/machining, post-event cleanup, and post-event test and/or evaluation. Hazard control is defined as it is applicable or applied for the specific exposure opportunity. The carbon exposure hazard includes fly, dust, fiber (cured/uncured), and matrix vapor/thermal decomposition products. By using the recommendations in this document, a high level of confidence can be assured for the protection of personnel and equipment.

  17. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  18. Relation between peak period of microtremor spectral ratio (horizontal and vertical components) and basement depth; Bido no suiheido/jogedo supekutoru hi no peak to kiso shindo tono kankei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, H; Mizutani, K; Saito, T [Iwate University, Iwate (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1996-05-01

    The peak period of the horizontal/vertical spectral ratio of microtremors was referred to the underground structure for the purpose of finding out if it was possible to estimate the ground structure by use of the peak period of the spectral ratio. The observation was carried in the areas of Morioka City and Hachinohe City using seismographs for measuring east-west, north-south, and up-down motions. As for the relationship between the peak period of the spectral ratio distribution involving 490 observation sites and the known gravity anomalies in the Morioka City area, it was found that the peak period of the spectral ratio tended to be shorter from west toward east while the gravity anomalies were greater from west toward east. Again, as for the relations with the underground geology, the period was longer when the distance to the granite basement was greater, and shorter when smaller. In the Hachinohe City area, relations not only of the first period peak but also of the second period peak to the basement were disclosed, which indicates the possibility that the peak period of the spectral ratio will be used as a means for estimating the basement structure. 2 refs., 8 figs.

  19. [Diagnostic imaging and radiation hazards].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claudon, Michel; Guillaume, Luc

    2015-01-01

    For the last 20 years, the exposure of the population to medical radiation has been increased by 600%, mainly due to the extension of new imaging modalities such as CT or interventional radiology. The risk for radio-induced hazards is especially marked for children, because of the high sensivity of tissues to radiation especially during the first decade of the life. Two main ways allow to better control and reduce the mean effective dose per patient in diagnostic imaging: the introduction of recent technical improvement (i.e. low dose CT scans using iterative reconstruction algorithms, low dose technique for pediatric spine), and the substitution to non-radiating techniques such as ultrasound and MRI. The French National institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety periodically publishes dose reference levels for conventional films and CT examinations, for both adults and pediatric patients. A close relationship between clinicians and radiologists remains essential for a better appreciation of the risk/benefit ratio of each individual examination using X-Rays.

  20. Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-04-01

    Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

  1. A new relative hazard index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.; Burnett, T.W.T; Kastenberg, W.E.

    1976-01-01

    Several indexes for the evaluation of relative radionuclide hazards have been previously developed. In this paper, a new relative hazard index is derived for use in the assessment of the future burden to mankind from the presence of radionuclides in the environment. Important features of this hazard index are that it takes into account multiple decay schemes, non-equilibrium conditions, and finite time periods. As an application of this hazard index, a comparison is made between thermal reactor radioactive waste and the uranium required as fuel with the following conclusions: (1) For short time intervals (d 234 U breaking the uranium decay chain. (3) For long time intervals of concern (d >= 500 000 years), the reactor waste and consumed uranium indexes are equal after a much shorter decay time (approximately 10 years.) (author)

  2. Staff technical position on investigations to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, K.I.; Blackford, M.E.; Ibrahim, A.K.

    1992-07-01

    The purpose of this Staff Technical Position (STP) is to provide guidance to the US Department of Energy (DOE) on acceptable geologic repository investigations that can be used to identify fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards. ne staff considers that the approach this STP takes to investigations of fault displacement and seismic phenomena is appropriate for the collection of sufficient data for input to analyses of fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards, both for the preclosure and postclosure performance periods. However, detailed analyses of fault displacement and seismic data, such as those required for comprehensive assessments of repository performance, may identify the need for additional investigations. Section 2.0 of this STP describes the 10 CFR Part 60 requirements that form the basis for investigations to describe fault displacement hazards and seismic hazards at a geologic repository. Technical position statements and corresponding discussions are presented in Sections 3.0 and 4.0, respectively. Technical position topics in this STP are categorized thusly: (1) investigation considerations, (2) investigations for fault-displacement hazards, and (3) investigations for seismic hazards

  3. The reporting of food hazards by the media: The case of Greece

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehagia, Olga; Chrysochou, Polymeros

    2007-01-01

    This study focuses on the coverage of food hazards by the Greek mass media. During the study period of three years, 311 articles from two daily and one Sunday newspaper were identified and analysed. The most important results drawn from the analyses are the following: (a) genetically modified foods...... was the most referenced food hazard; (b) there was often a simultaneous reference to more than one food hazard in the text; (c) most of the articles had informative content; (d) a periodicity existed in the media coverage of food hazards; and (e) the articles' content was dependent upon the food hazard...

  4. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  5. The Ratio Evolution Analysis of the Non-Performing Loans Obtained by the Credit Institutions in Romania during the Period 2007-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Catalina Turkes

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the ratio evolution of the non-performing loans obtained by the privately, Romanian and foreign-owned credit institutions, in Romania, during the period December 2007 - June 2015, depending on the change of the legislation regarding the reporting methodology for the purpose of the institutions surveillance according to the prudential regulations of BNR (National Bank of Romania and EU Regulation. The results of this analysis highlighted the fact that the non-performing loans ratio went through a spectacular increase during the period 2007-2013, reaching 21.87% following the promotion of a strategic plan based on the recovery of the debts by restructuring actions, rescheduling or enforcement. In 2014, the non-performing loans ratio decreases to 15.33% following the modification of the debt recovery strategic plan by taking them out from the balance sheet and by their integral provisioning.

  6. Radiological hazard assessment at the Monte Bello Islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, M.B.; Martin, L.J.; Wilks, M.J.; Wiliams, G.A.

    1990-12-01

    Field and laboratory measurements are described and data presented which enabled dose assessments for exposure to artificial radionuclides at the Monte Bello Islands, the sites of U.K. atomic weapons tests in 1952 and 1956. The report focuses on quantifying the inhalation hazard as exposure via the ingestion and wound contamination pathways is considered inconsequential. Surface soil concentrations of radionuclides and particle size analyses are presented for various sampling sites. Analyses of the distribution with depth indicated that, in general, the activity is more or less uniformly mixed through the top 40 mm, although in a few cases the top 10 mm contains the bulk of the activity. The 239 Pu/ 241 Am activity ratios were measured for selected samples. The only potential hazards to health from residual radioactive contamination on the Monte Bello Islands are due to the inhalation of actinides (specifically plutonium and americium) and from the external gamma-radiation field. Only one area, in the fallout plume of HURRICANE to the north-west of Main Beach, is a potential inhalation hazard. For an average inhalable dust loading of 0.1 mg/m 3 , three days occupancy of the most contaminated site will result in a committed effective dose equivalent of 1 mSv. The two ground zeros could not be considered inhalation hazards, considering the small areas concerned and the habits of visitors (full-time occupancy, over a period of one year or more, of the most contaminated sites at either of the G1 or G2 ground zeros would be required to reach 1 mSv). 25 refs., 23 tabs., 3 figs

  7. Hazard Models From Periodic Dike Intrusions at Kı¯lauea Volcano, Hawai`i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery-Brown, E. K.; Miklius, A.

    2016-12-01

    The persistence and regular recurrence intervals of dike intrusions in the East Rift Zone (ERZ) of Kı¯lauea Volcano lead to the possibility of constructing a time-dependent intrusion hazard model. Dike intrusions are commonly observed in Kı¯lauea Volcano's ERZ and can occur repeatedly in regions that correlate with seismic segments (sections of rift seismicity with persistent definitive lateral boundaries) proposed by Wright and Klein (USGS PP1806, 2014). Five such ERZ intrusions have occurred since 1983 with inferred locations downrift of the bend in Kı¯lauea's ERZ, with the first (1983) being the start of the ongoing ERZ eruption. The ERZ intrusions occur on one of two segments that are spatially coincident with seismic segments: Makaopuhi (1993 and 2007) and Nāpau (1983, 1997, and 2011). During each intrusion, the amount of inferred dike opening was between 2 and 3 meters. The times between ERZ intrusions for same-segment pairs are all close to 14 years: 14.07 (1983-1997), 14.09 (1997-2011), and 13.95 (1993-2007) years, with the Nāpau segment becoming active about 3.5 years after the Makaopuhi segment in each case. Four additional upper ERZ intrusions are also considered here. Dikes in the upper ERZ have much smaller opening ( 10 cm), and have shorter recurrence intervals of 8 years with more variability. The amount of modeled dike opening during each of these events roughly corresponds to the amount of seaward south flank motion and deep rift opening accumulated in the time between events. Additionally, the recurrence interval of 14 years appears to be unaffected by the magma surge of 2003-2007, suggesting that flank motion, rather than magma supply, could be a controlling factor in the timing and periodicity of intrusions. Flank control over the timing of magma intrusions runs counter to the historical research suggesting that dike intrusions at Kı¯lauea are driven by magma overpressure. This relatively free sliding may have resulted from decreased

  8. A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

    2017-12-01

    Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

  9. PHAZE, Parametric Hazard Function Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: Phaze performs statistical inference calculations on a hazard function (also called a failure rate or intensity function) based on reported failure times of components that are repaired and restored to service. Three parametric models are allowed: the exponential, linear, and Weibull hazard models. The inference includes estimation (maximum likelihood estimators and confidence regions) of the parameters and of the hazard function itself, testing of hypotheses such as increasing failure rate, and checking of the model assumptions. 2 - Methods: PHAZE assumes that the failures of a component follow a time-dependent (or non-homogenous) Poisson process and that the failure counts in non-overlapping time intervals are independent. Implicit in the independence property is the assumption that the component is restored to service immediately after any failure, with negligible repair time. The failures of one component are assumed to be independent of those of another component; a proportional hazards model is used. Data for a component are called time censored if the component is observed for a fixed time-period, or plant records covering a fixed time-period are examined, and the failure times are recorded. The number of these failures is random. Data are called failure censored if the component is kept in service until a predetermined number of failures has occurred, at which time the component is removed from service. In this case, the number of failures is fixed, but the end of the observation period equals the final failure time and is random. A typical PHAZE session consists of reading failure data from a file prepared previously, selecting one of the three models, and performing data analysis (i.e., performing the usual statistical inference about the parameters of the model, with special emphasis on the parameter(s) that determine whether the hazard function is increasing). The final goals of the inference are a point estimate

  10. ANALISIS PENGARUH LDR, NPL DAN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY RATIO TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2012

    OpenAIRE

    Hamidah Hamidah; Goldan Merion Siallagan; Umi Mardiyati

    2014-01-01

    This research is performed on order to test analysis the influence of the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Non Performing Loan (NPL) and Operational Efficiency Ratio (OER) toward Return On Asset (ROA) On Foreign Exchange Banks In Indonesia Period 2010-2012. Methodology research as the sample used purposive sampling, samplewas accured fromforeign banks in Indonesia. Data analysis with multi liniearregression of ordinary least square and hypotheses test used t-statistic and Fstatistic, a classic as...

  11. Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruettener, E.

    1995-01-01

    Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  12. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-11-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  13. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  14. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  15. Estimated airborne release of plutonium from Westinghouse Cheswick site as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and seismic hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishima, J.; Schwendiman, L.C.; Ayer, J.E.

    1979-06-01

    The potential airborne releases of plutonium (source terms) from postulated damage sustained by the Westinghouse Plutonium Fuel Development Laboratories at the Cheswick site in Pennsylvania as a result of various levels of wind and seismic hazard are estimated. The source terms are based on damage scenarios originated by other specialists and range up to 260 mph for wind hazard and in excess of 0.39 g ground acceleration for seismic hazard. The approaches and factors used to estimate the source terms (inventories of dispersible materials at risk, damage levels and ratios, fractional airborne releases of dispersible materials under stress, atmosphere exchange rates, and source term ranges) are discussed. Source term estimates range from less than 10 -7 g plutonium to greater than 130 g plutonium over a four-day period

  16. Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

  17. Development of evaluation method for software hazard identification techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, H. W.; Chen, M. H.; Shih, C.; Yih, S.; Kuo, C. T.; Wang, L. H.; Yu, Y. C.; Chen, C. W.

    2006-01-01

    This research evaluated the applicable software hazard identification techniques nowadays, such as, Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Markov chain modeling, Dynamic Flow-graph Methodology (DFM), and simulation-based model analysis; and then determined indexes in view of their characteristics, which include dynamic capability, completeness, achievability, detail, signal/noise ratio, complexity, and implementation cost. By this proposed method, the analysts can evaluate various software hazard identification combinations for specific purpose. According to the case study results, the traditional PHA + FMEA + FTA (with failure rate) + Markov chain modeling (with transfer rate) combination is not competitive due to the dilemma for obtaining acceptable software failure rates. However, the systematic architecture of FTA and Markov chain modeling is still valuable for realizing the software fault structure. The system centric techniques, such as DFM and simulation-based model-analysis, show the advantage on dynamic capability, achievability, detail, signal/noise ratio. However, their disadvantages are the completeness complexity and implementation cost. This evaluation method can be a platform to reach common consensus for the stakeholders. Following the evolution of software hazard identification techniques, the evaluation results could be changed. However, the insight of software hazard identification techniques is much more important than the numbers obtained by the evaluation. (authors)

  18. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  19. Estimated daily intake and hazard quotients and indices of phthtalate diesters for young danish men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kranich, Selma K; Frederiksen, Hanne; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2014-01-01

    Because of wide exposure to phthalates, we investigated whether simultaneous exposure to several phthalates reached levels that might cause adverse antiandrogenic effects. Thirty three healthy young Danish men each delivered three 24-h urine samples during a three months period. The daily intakes...... of the sum of di-n-butyl and di-iso-butyl phthalate, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, di-iso-nonyl phthalate, and butylbenzyl phthalate were estimated based on urinary excretion of the metabolites. Based on a hazard quotient (HQ) of the individual phthalate (i.e., the ratio between the daily intake...

  20. Hazardous materials routing - risk management of mismanagement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glickman, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    Along with emergency planning and preparedness, the placement of restrictions on routing has become an increasingly popular device for managing the highway and rail risks of hazardous materials transportation. Federal studies conducted in 1985 indicate that at that time there were 513 different state and local restrictions on the routing of hazardous materials for these two modes of transportation, and that there were 136 state and local notification requirements, that is, restrictions that take the form of a statute or ordinance requiring advance warning or periodic reporting about hazardous materials shipments. Routing restrictions also take the form of prohibiting the use of road, a tunnel, or a bridge for a specified set of hazardous materials

  1. Seismic Hazard characterization study using an earthquake source with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in the Northern of Sumatra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahya, A.; Palupi, M. I. R.; Suharsono

    2016-01-01

    Sumatra region is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Indonesia because it is lie on an active tectonic zone. In 2004 there is earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.2 located on the coast with the distance 160 km in the west of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and triggering a tsunami. These events take a lot of casualties and material losses, especially in the Province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and North Sumatra. To minimize the impact of the earthquake disaster, a fundamental assessment of the earthquake hazard in the region is needed. Stages of research include the study of literature, collection and processing of seismic data, seismic source characterization and analysis of earthquake hazard by probabilistic methods (PSHA) used earthquake catalog from 1907 through 2014. The earthquake hazard represented by the value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) in the period of 0.2 and 1 second on bedrock that is presented in the form of a map with a return period of 2475 years and the earthquake hazard curves for the city of Medan and Banda Aceh. (paper)

  2. MGR External Events Hazards Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, L.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose and objective of this analysis is to apply an external events Hazards Analysis (HA) to the License Application Design Selection Enhanced Design Alternative 11 [(LADS EDA II design (Reference 8.32))]. The output of the HA is called a Hazards List (HL). This analysis supersedes the external hazards portion of Rev. 00 of the PHA (Reference 8.1). The PHA for internal events will also be updated to the LADS EDA II design but under a separate analysis. Like the PHA methodology, the HA methodology provides a systematic method to identify potential hazards during the 100-year Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) operating period updated to reflect the EDA II design. The resulting events on the HL are candidates that may have potential radiological consequences as determined during Design Basis Events (DBEs) analyses. Therefore, the HL that results from this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply during the performance of DBE analyses

  3. Seismic hazard analysis with PSHA method in four cities in Java

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elistyawati, Y.; Palupi, I. R.; Suharsono

    2016-01-01

    In this study the tectonic earthquakes was observed through the peak ground acceleration through the PSHA method by dividing the area of the earthquake source. This study applied the earthquake data from 1965 - 2015 that has been analyzed the completeness of the data, location research was the entire Java with stressed in four large cities prone to earthquakes. The results were found to be a hazard map with a return period of 500 years, 2500 years return period, and the hazard curve were four major cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, and the city of Banyuwangi). Results Java PGA hazard map 500 years had a peak ground acceleration within 0 g ≥ 0.5 g, while the return period of 2500 years had a value of 0 to ≥ 0.8 g. While, the PGA hazard curves on the city's most influential source of the earthquake was from sources such as fault Cimandiri backgroud, for the city of Bandung earthquake sources that influence the seismic source fault dent background form. In other side, the city of Yogyakarta earthquake hazard curve of the most influential was the source of the earthquake background of the Opak fault, and the most influential hazard curve of Banyuwangi earthquake was the source of Java and Sumba megatruts earthquake. (paper)

  4. The prognostic value of lymph node ratio in a national cohort of rectal cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykke, J; Jess, P; Roikjaer, O

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prognostic implications of the lymph node ratio (LNR) in curative resected rectal cancer. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: It has been proposed that the LNR has a high prognostic impact in colorectal cancer, but the lymph node ratio has not been evaluated exclusively for rectal......-adjuvant treatment had been given. RESULTS: In a multivariate analysis the pN status, ypN status and lymph node yield were found to be independent prognostic factors for overall survival, irrespective of neo-adjuvant therapy. The LNR was also found to be a significant prognostic factor with a Hazard Ratio ranging...... cancer in a large national cohort study. METHODS: All 6793 patients in Denmark diagnosed with stage I to III adenocarcinoma of the rectum, and so treated in the period from 2003 to 2011, were included in the analysis. The cohort was divided into two groups according to whether or not neo...

  5. Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Shedlock

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings. The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

  6. Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

  7. Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

  8. Coastal Hazards Impacts And Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosanna D. Gonzales

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Communitys participation in the activities like the preparation and creation of historical timeline. resource and hazard mapping as well as vulnerability assessment matrix VAM are effective tools in determining hazards impacts and interventions of a certain locality. The most common hazards are typhoons saltwater intrusion floods and drought. Data were collected through focus group discussions FGDs from respondents along coastal areas. Findings revealed that natural calamities had great impact to livelihood properties and health. The damaged business operations fishing and agricultural livelihood led to loss of income likewise the sources of water were also contaminated. Planned interventions include launching of periodic education and awareness program creation of evacuation centers and relocation sites rescue centers installation of deep well water pumps and irrigation systems solid waste management drainage and sea walls construction canal rehabilitationdredging tree planting and alternative livelihood programs.

  9. Estrogenic exposure affects metamorphosis and alters sex ratios in the northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens): identifying critically vulnerable periods of development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Natacha S; Duarte, Paula; Wade, Michael G; Lean, David R S; Trudeau, Vance L

    2008-05-01

    During the transformation from larval tadpole to juvenile frog, there are critical periods of metamorphic development and sex differentiation that may be particularly sensitive to endocrine disruption. The aim of the present study was to identify sensitive developmental periods for estrogenic endocrine disruption in the northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens) using short, targeted exposures to the synthetic estrogen, ethinylestradiol (EE2). Post-hatch tadpoles (Gosner stage 27) were exposed over five distinct periods of metamorphosis: early (stage 27-30), mid (stage 30-36), early and mid (stage 27-36), late (stage 36-42), and the entire metamorphic period (chronic; stage 27-42). For each period, animals were sampled immediately following the EE2 exposure and at metamorphic climax (stage 42). The effects of EE2 on metamorphic development and sex differentiation were assessed through measures of length, weight, developmental stage, days to metamorphosis, sex ratios and incidence of gonadal intersex. Our results show that tadpoles exposed to EE2 during mid-metamorphosis were developmentally delayed immediately following exposure and took 2 weeks longer to reach metamorphic climax. In the unexposed groups, there was low proportion (0.15) of intersex tadpoles at stage 30 and gonads appeared to be morphologically distinct (male and female) in all individuals by stage 36. Tadpoles exposed early in development displayed a strong female-biased sex ratio compared to the controls. Moreover, these effects were also seen at metamorphic climax, approximately 2-3 months after the exposure period, demonstrating that transient early life-stage exposure to estrogen can induce effects on the reproductive organs that persist into the beginning of adult life-stages.

  10. Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

    2009-12-01

    The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

  11. Evaluation of Hazardous Material Management Safety in the Chemical Laboratory in BATAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur-Rahmah-Hidayati

    2005-01-01

    The management safety of the hazardous material (B3) in the chemical laboratory of BATAN was evaluated. The evaluation is necessary to be done because B3 is often used together with radioactive materials in the laboratory, but the attention to the safety aspect of B3 is not paid sufficiently in spite of its big potential hazard. The potential hazard generated from the nature of B3 could be flammable, explosive, oxidative, corrosive and poisonous. The handling of B3 could be conducted by enforcing the labelling and classification in the usage and disposal processes. Some observations of the chemical laboratory of BATAN show that the management safety of hazardous material in compliance with the government regulation no. 74 year 2001 has not been dully conducted. The management safety of B3 could be improved by, designating one who has adequate skill in hazardous material safety specially as the B3 safety officer, providing the Material Safety Data Sheet that is updated periodically to use in the laboratory and storage room, updating periodically the inventory of B3, performing training in work safety periodically, and monitoring the ventilation system intensively in laboratory and storage room. (author)

  12. In situ vitrification applications to hazardous wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liikala, S.

    1989-01-01

    In Situ Vitrification is a new hazardous waste remediation alternative that should be considered for contaminated soil matrices. According to the authors the advantages of using ISV include: technology demonstrated at field scale; applicable to a wide variety of soils and contaminants; pyrolyzer organics and encapsulates inorganics; product durable over geologic time period; no threat of harm to the public from exposure; and applications available for barrier walls and structural support. The use of ISV on a large scale basis has thus far been limited to the nuclear industry but has tremendous potential for widespread applications to the hazardous waste field. With the ever changing regulations for the disposal of hazardous waste in landfills, and the increasing positive analytical data of ISV, the process will become a powerful source for on-site treatment and hazardous waste management needs in the very near future

  13. Estimation of Typhoon Wind Hazard Curves for Nuclear Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young-Sun; Kim, Min-Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The intensity of such typhoons, which can influence the Korean Peninsula, is on an increasing trend owing to a rapid change of climate of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Therefore, nuclear facilities should be prepared against future super-typhoons. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires that a new NPP should be designed to endure the design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an annual exceedance frequency of 10{sup -7} (return period of 10 million years). A typical technique used to estimate typhoon wind speeds is based on a sampling of the key parameters of typhoon wind models from the distribution functions fitting statistical distributions to the observation data. Thus, the estimated wind speeds for long return periods include an unavoidable uncertainty owing to a limited observation. This study estimates the typhoon wind speeds for nuclear sites using a Monte Carlo simulation, and derives wind hazard curves using a logic-tree framework to reduce the epistemic uncertainty. Typhoon wind speeds were estimated for different return periods through a Monte-Carlo simulation using the typhoon observation data, and the wind hazard curves were derived using a logic-tree framework for three nuclear sites. The hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds were obtained. The mean hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds can be used for the design and risk assessment of an NPP.

  14. Analysis of uncertainties in a probabilistic seismic hazard estimation, example for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beauval, C.

    2003-12-01

    This thesis proposes a new methodology that allows to pinpoint the key parameters that control probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and at the same time to quantify the impact of these parameters uncertainties on hazard estimates. Cornell-McGuire's method is used here. First, uncertainties on magnitude and location determinations are modeled and quantified: resulting variability on hazard estimates ranges between 5% and 25% (=COV), depending on the site and the return period. An impact study is then performed, in order to determine the hierarchy between the impacts on hazard of the choices of four other parameters: intensity-magnitude correlation, minimum and maximum magnitudes, the truncation of the attenuation relationship. The results at 34 Hz (PGA) indicate that the maximum magnitude is the less influent parameter (from 100 to 10000 years); whereas the intensity-magnitude correlation and the truncation of ground motion predictions (>2σ) are the controlling parameters at all return periods (up to 30% decrease each at 10000 years). An increase in the minimum magnitude contributing to the hazard, from 3.5 to 4.5, can also produce non-negligible impacts at small return periods (up to 20% decrease of hazard results at 475 years). Finally, the overall variability on hazard estimates due to the combined choices of the four parameters can reach up to 30% (COV, at 34 Hz). For lower frequencies (<5 Hz), the overall variability increases and maximum magnitude becomes a controlling parameter. Therefore, variability of estimates due to catalog uncertainties and to the choices of these four parameters must be taken into account in all probabilistic seismic hazard studies in France. To reduce variability in hazard estimates, future research should concentrate on the elaboration of an appropriate intensity- magnitude correlation, as well as on a more realistic way of taking into account ground motion dispersion. (author)

  15. Radiation hazard control report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morishima, Hiroshige; Koga, Taeko; Hisanaga, Saemi; Miki, Ryota; Kawai, Hiroshi; Aoki, Yutaka; Sone, Koji; Okada, Hirokazu

    1990-01-01

    The report describes the radiation hazard control activities performed at the Atomic Energy Research Institute of Kinki University, Japan, during the one-year period from April 1989 to March 1990. Personal radiation hazard control is outlined first focusing on results of physical examination and data of personal exposure dose equivalent. Radiation control in laboratory is then described. Dose equivalent at various places is discussed on the basis of monthly total dose equivalent measured on film badges, measurements made by TLD, and observations made through a continuous radiations monitoring system. The concentration of radiations in air and water is discussed focusing on their measured concentrations in air at the air outlets of tracer/accelerator facilities, and radioactivity in waste water sampled in the reactor facilities and tracer/accelerator facilities. Another discussion is made on the surface contamination density over the floors, draft systems, sink surface, etc. Concerning outdoor radiation hazard control, furthermore, TLD measurements of environmental gamma-rays, data on total gamma-ray radioactivity in environmental samples, and analysis of gamma-ray emitting nuclides in environmental samples are described and discussed. (N.K.)

  16. Prognostic Utility of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio on Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Severe Calcific Aortic Stenosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Im Cho

    Full Text Available Inflammation is an important factor in the pathogenesis of calcific aortic stenosis (AS. We aimed to evaluate the association between an inflammatory marker, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE in patients with severe calcific AS.A total of 336 patients with isolated severe calcific AS newly diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled in this study. Using Cox proportional hazards (PH regression models, we investigated the prognostic value of NLR adjusted for baseline covariates including logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score (EuroSCORE-I and undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR. We also evaluated the clinical relevance of NLR risk groups (divided into low, intermediate, high risk as categorized by NLR cutoff values. MACE was defined as a composite of all-cause mortality, cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarction during the follow-up period.The inflammatory marker NLR was an independent prognostic factor most significantly associated with MACE [hazard ratio (HR, 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.04-1.09; p-value 9, respectively.The findings of the present study demonstrate the potential utility of NLR in risk stratification of patients with severe calcific AS.

  17. Flood Hazard Recurrence Frequencies for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2001-01-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) regulations outline the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this report is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines, as a function of water elevation, the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves provide basis to avoid unnecessary facility upgrades, to establish appropriate design criteria for new facilities, and to develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. A method based on precipitation, basin runoff and open channel hydraulics was developed to determine probabilistic flood hazard curves for the Savannah River Site. The calculated flood hazard curves show that the probabilities of flooding existing SRS major facilities are significantly less than 1.E-05 per year

  18. Prognosis following cancer surgery during holiday periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagergren, Jesper; Mattsson, Fredrik; Lagergren, Pernilla

    2017-11-15

    Surgery is the mainstay curative treatment in most cancer. We aimed to test the new hypothesis that cancer surgery performed during holiday periods is associated with worse long-term prognosis than for non-holiday periods. This nationwide Swedish population-based cohort study included 228,927 patients during 1997-2014 who underwent elective resectional surgery for a cancer where the annual number of resections was over 100. The 16 eligible cancer sites were grouped into 10 cancer groups. The exposure, holiday periods, was classified as wide (14-weeks) or narrow (7-weeks). Surgery conducted inside versus outside holiday periods was compared regarding overall disease-specific (main outcome) and overall all-cause (secondary outcome) mortality. Cox regression provided hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, hospital volume, calendar period and tumor stage. Surgery conducted during wide and narrow holiday periods were associated with increased HRs of disease-specific mortality for cancer of the breast (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.13 and HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12) and possibly of cancer of the liver-pancreas-bile ducts (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.99-1.20 and HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.99-1.26). Sub-groups with cancer of the colon-rectum, head-and-neck, prostate, kidney-urine bladder and thyroid also experienced statistically significantly worse prognosis following surgery conducted during holiday periods. No influence of surgery during holiday was detected for cancer of the esophagus-stomach, lung or ovary-uterus. All-cause HRs were similar to the disease-specific HRs. The prognosis following cancer surgery might not be fully maintained during holiday periods for all cancer sites. © 2017 UICC.

  19. Periodicity in the BrO/SO2 molar ratios in the volcanic gas plume of Cotopaxi and its correlation with the Earth tides during the eruption in 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinger, Florian; Bobrowski, Nicole; Warnach, Simon; Bredemeyer, Stefan; Hidalgo, Silvana; Arellano, Santiago; Galle, Bo; Platt, Ulrich; Wagner, Thomas

    2018-03-01

    We evaluated NOVAC (Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change) gas emission data from the 2015 eruption of the Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) for BrO/SO2 molar ratios. The BrO/SO2 molar ratios were very small prior to the phreatomagmatic explosions in August 2015, significantly higher after the explosions, and continuously increasing until the end of the unrest period in December 2015. These observations together with similar findings in previous studies at other volcanoes (Mt. Etna, Nevado del Ruiz, Tungurahua) suggest a possible link between a drop in BrO/SO2 and a future explosion. In addition, the observed relatively high BrO/SO2 molar ratios after December 2015 imply that bromine degassed predominately after sulfur from the magmatic melt. Furthermore, statistical analysis of the data revealed a conspicuous periodic pattern with a periodicity of about 2 weeks in a 3-month time series. While the time series is too short to rule out a chance recurrence of transient geological or meteorological events as a possible origin for the periodic signal, we nevertheless took this observation as a motivation to examine the influence of natural forcings with periodicities of around 2 weeks on volcanic gas emissions. One strong aspirant with such a periodicity are the Earth tides, which are thus central in this study. We present the BrO/SO2 data, analyse the reliability of the periodic signal, discuss a possible meteorological or eruption-induced origin of this signal, and compare the signal with the theoretical ground surface displacement pattern caused by the Earth tides. Our central result is the observation of a significant correlation between the BrO/SO2 molar ratios with the north-south and vertical components of the calculated tide-induced surface displacement with correlation coefficients of 47 and 36 %, respectively. From all other investigated parameters, only the correlation between the BrO/SO2 molar ratios and the relative humidity in the local

  20. Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

    2016-04-01

    Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to

  1. Prognostic role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in head and neck cancer: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takenaka, Yukinori; Oya, Ryohei; Kitamiura, Takahiro; Ashida, Naoki; Shimizu, Kotaro; Takemura, Kazuya; Yamamoto, Yoshifumi; Uno, Atsuhiko

    2018-03-01

    Neutrophils play substantial roles in cancer progression. Previous reports demonstrated the prognostic impact of the pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in various types of solid cancers. The purpose of this study was to quantify the prognostic impact of NLR on head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We systematically searched electronic databases, identified articles regarding NLR and HNSCC mortality, and extracted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Pooled HRs for overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were estimated using random effect models. Nineteen studies enrolling 3770 patients were included in the analyses. Overall, NLR greater than the cutoff value was associated with poorer OS and DSS (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.47-1.93; P < .001 and HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.20-2.95; P = .006, respectively). Elevated NLR predicts worse outcomes in patients with HNSCC. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. 78 FR 48636 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-09

    ... collection related to the proposed rule, ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk... period. These two proposals are related to the proposed rule ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and... final extension of the comment period for the ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis...

  3. Sustainable System for Residual Hazards Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin M. Kostelnik; James H. Clarke; Jerry L. Harbour

    2004-01-01

    Hazardous, radioactive and other toxic substances have routinely been generated and subsequently disposed of in the shallow subsurface throughout the world. Many of today's waste management techniques do not eliminate the problem, but rather only concentrate or contain the hazardous contaminants. Residual hazards result from the presence of hazardous and/or contaminated material that remains on-site following active operations or the completion of remedial actions. Residual hazards pose continued risk to humans and the environment and represent a significant and chronic problem that require continuous long-term management (i.e. >1000 years). To protect human health and safeguard the natural environment, a sustainable system is required for the proper management of residual hazards. A sustainable system for the management of residual hazards will require the integration of engineered, institutional and land-use controls to isolate residual contaminants and thus minimize the associated hazards. Engineered controls are physical modifications to the natural setting and ecosystem, including the site, facility, and/or the residual materials themselves, in order to reduce or eliminate the potential for exposure to contaminants of concern (COCs). Institutional controls are processes, instruments, and mechanisms designed to influence human behavior and activity. System failure can involve hazardous material escaping from the confinement because of system degradation (i.e., chronic or acute degradation) or by external intrusion of the biosphere into the contaminated material because of the loss of institutional control. An ongoing analysis of contemporary and historic sites suggests that the significance of the loss of institutional controls is a critical pathway because decisions made during the operations/remedial action phase, as well as decisions made throughout the residual hazards management period, are key to the long-term success of the prescribed system. In fact

  4. Stochastic Urban Pluvial Flood Hazard Maps Based upon a Spatial-Temporal Rainfall Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Eduardo Simões

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available It is a common practice to assign the return period of a given storm event to the urban pluvial flood event that such storm generates. However, this approach may be inappropriate as rainfall events with the same return period can produce different urban pluvial flooding events, i.e., with different associated flood extent, water levels and return periods. This depends on the characteristics of the rainfall events, such as spatial variability, and on other characteristics of the sewer system and the catchment. To address this, the paper presents an innovative contribution to produce stochastic urban pluvial flood hazard maps. A stochastic rainfall generator for urban-scale applications was employed to generate an ensemble of spatially—and temporally—variable design storms with similar return period. These were used as input to the urban drainage model of a pilot urban catchment (~9 km2 located in London, UK. Stochastic flood hazard maps were generated through a frequency analysis of the flooding generated by the various storm events. The stochastic flood hazard maps obtained show that rainfall spatial-temporal variability is an important factor in the estimation of flood likelihood in urban areas. Moreover, as compared to the flood hazard maps obtained by using a single spatially-uniform storm event, the stochastic maps generated in this study provide a more comprehensive assessment of flood hazard which enables better informed flood risk management decisions.

  5. Periodicity in the BrO∕SO2 molar ratios in the volcanic gas plume of Cotopaxi and its correlation with the Earth tides during the eruption in 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dinger

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated NOVAC (Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change gas emission data from the 2015 eruption of the Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador for BrO∕SO2 molar ratios. The BrO∕SO2 molar ratios were very small prior to the phreatomagmatic explosions in August 2015, significantly higher after the explosions, and continuously increasing until the end of the unrest period in December 2015. These observations together with similar findings in previous studies at other volcanoes (Mt. Etna, Nevado del Ruiz, Tungurahua suggest a possible link between a drop in BrO∕SO2 and a future explosion. In addition, the observed relatively high BrO∕SO2 molar ratios after December 2015 imply that bromine degassed predominately after sulfur from the magmatic melt. Furthermore, statistical analysis of the data revealed a conspicuous periodic pattern with a periodicity of about 2 weeks in a 3-month time series. While the time series is too short to rule out a chance recurrence of transient geological or meteorological events as a possible origin for the periodic signal, we nevertheless took this observation as a motivation to examine the influence of natural forcings with periodicities of around 2 weeks on volcanic gas emissions. One strong aspirant with such a periodicity are the Earth tides, which are thus central in this study. We present the BrO∕SO2 data, analyse the reliability of the periodic signal, discuss a possible meteorological or eruption-induced origin of this signal, and compare the signal with the theoretical ground surface displacement pattern caused by the Earth tides. Our central result is the observation of a significant correlation between the BrO∕SO2 molar ratios with the north–south and vertical components of the calculated tide-induced surface displacement with correlation coefficients of 47 and 36 %, respectively. From all other investigated parameters, only the correlation between the BrO∕SO2 molar

  6. Flood Hazard Assessment for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2000-01-01

    A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood hazard curves for SRS facilities. The flood hazard curves for the SRS F-Area due to flooding in the Upper Three Runs basin are presented in this paper

  7. Flood Hazard Assessment for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    1999-01-01

    'A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods.'

  8. Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

    1990-07-01

    Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

  9. Flood hazard assessment for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.F.

    2000-01-01

    A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. The flood hazard curves for the SRS F-Area due to flooding in the Upper Three Runs basin are presented in this paper

  10. Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

    2007-10-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

  11. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-02-28

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program.

  12. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program

  13. Transportation of hazardous materials emergency preparedness hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program

  14. New York hazardous substances emergency events surveillance: learning from hazardous substances releases to improve safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welles, Wanda Lizak; Wilburn, Rebecca E.; Ehrlich, Jenny K.; Floridia, Christina M.

    2004-01-01

    Since 1993, the New York State Department of Health, funded by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, has collected data about non-petroleum hazardous substances releases through the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (NYHSEES) project. This study investigates risk factors for hazardous substances releases that may result in public health consequences such as injury or reported health effects. The 6428 qualifying events that occurred during the 10-year-period of 1993-2002 involved 8838 hazardous substances, 842 evacuations, more than 75,419 people evacuated, and more than 3120 people decontaminated. These events occurred both at fixed facilities (79%) and during transport (21%). The causative factors most frequently contributing to reported events were equipment failure (39%) and human error (33%). Five of the 10 chemicals most frequently associated with injuries were also among the 10 chemicals most frequently involved in reported events: sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, ammonia, sodium hypochlorite, and carbon monoxide. The chemical categories most frequently associated with events, and with events with adverse health effects were volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and solvents, and acids. Events with releases of hazardous substances were associated with injuries to 3089 people including employees (37%), responders (12%), the general public (29%) and students (22%). The most frequently reported adverse health effects were respiratory irritation, headache, and nausea or vomiting. Most of the injured were transported to the hospital, treated, and released (55%) or treated at the scene (29%). These data have been used for emergency response training, planning, and prevention activities to reduce morbidity and mortality from future events

  15. Hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility's operational emergency management program. The area surrounding HWSF, the buildings and structures at HWSF, and the processes used at HWSF are described in this report. All nonradiological hazardous materials at the HWSF were identified (radiological hazardous materials are not stored at HWSF) and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Two of the identified hazardous materials exceeded their specified threshold quantity. This report discusses the potential release scenarios and consequences associated with an accidental release for each of the two identified hazardous materials, lead and mercury. Emergency considerations, such as emergency planning zones, emergency classes, protective actions, and emergency action levels, are also discussed based on the analysis of potential consequences. Evaluation of the potential consequences indicated that the highest emergency class for operational emergencies at the HWSF would be a Site Area Emergency

  16. Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

    2018-04-01

    Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

  17. Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shama, Ayman A.

    2011-03-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

  18. Cold-Fluid Equilibrium of a Large-Aspect-Ratio Ellipse-Shaped Charged-Particle Beam in a Non-Axisymmetric Periodic Permanent Magnet Focusing Field

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Jing; Chen Chi Ping

    2005-01-01

    A new class of equilibrium is discovered for a large-aspect-ratio ellipse-shaped charged-particle beam in a non-axisymmetric periodic permanent magnet focusing field. A paraxial cold-fluid model is employed to derive the equilibrium flow properties and generalized envelope equations with negligibly small emittance. A periodic beam equilibrium solution is obtained numerically from the generalized envelope equations. It is shown that the beam edges are well confined in both transverse directions, and that the equilibrium beam exhibits a small-angle periodic wobble as it propagates. A two-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) code, PFB2D, is used to verify the theoretical predictions in the paraxial limit, and to establish validity under non-paraxial situations and the influence of the conductor walls of the beam tunnel.

  19. Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robiana, R.; Cipta, A.

    2015-01-01

    Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock type and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 – 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds

  20. Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robiana, R., E-mail: robiana-geo104@yahoo.com; Cipta, A. [Geological Agency, Diponegoro Road No.57, Bandung, 40122 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock type and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 – 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds.

  1. Financial management of hazardous waste compliance and mitigation costs: constraints and implications

    OpenAIRE

    Babos, Jeffrey C.

    1991-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. This research investigates financial management and other constraints and implications of hazardous waste disposal and compliance within DoD and DoN. It shows that during contracting fiscal period where there is an environmentally conscious public, the DoD and the Navy have to make trade-offs in funding for hazardous waste management. The study reveals that legislation removing sovereign immunity from the DoD for hazardous waste dispo...

  2. Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

    2016-12-01

    Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban

  3. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  4. Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Inchul; Park, Jae Bum; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Yoon, Jin Ha; Won, Jong Uk; Roh, Jaehoon

    2018-01-01

    Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11-3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13-24 months (3.03 [1.52-6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14-13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  5. Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2016-08-01

    This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability

  6. ODH, oxygen deficiency hazard cryogenic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augustynowicz, S.D.

    1994-01-01

    An oxygen deficiency exists when the concentration of oxygen, by volume, drops to a level at which atmosphere supplying respiratory protection must be provided. Since liquid cryogens can expand by factors of 700 (LN 2 ) to 850 (LH e ), the uncontrolled release into an enclosed space can easily cause an oxygen-deficient condition. An oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) fatality rate per hour (OE) is defined as: OE = Σ N i P i F i , where N i = number of components, P i = probability of failure or operator error, and F i = fatality factor. ODHs range from open-quotes unclassifiedclose quotes (OE -9 1/h) to class 4, which is the most hazardous (OE>10 -1 1/h). For Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory (SSCL) buildings where cryogenic systems exist, failure rate, fatality factor, reduced oxygen ratio, and fresh air circulation are examined

  7. Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

  8. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  9. A Comparative Study between Codes of Spectrum for a Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) System in Two Different Hazardous Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pour, P Moradi; Noorzaei, J [Institute of Advanced Technology (ITMA), Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia); Karisiddappa [Vice Principal of Malnad College of Engineering, 573201 Hassan, Karnataka (India); Jaafar, M S, E-mail: jamal@eng.upm.edu.my [Department of Civil Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Since in structure and earthquake engineering design of structures using response spectrum method (RSM) is very important, this study has been performed for a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system. Firstly the concept and the way of construction of response spectrum has been briefly explained. Then the records of some strong earthquakes in USA and Iran as two hazardous regions have been plotted, after that selected response spectrums (RS) of each country has been compared with each other and finally with standard response code of its own country. It was concluded:1) For a given ground motion the response of a SDOF system only depends on its natural vibration period (T) and damping ratio({zeta}).2) When the effective damping ratio of a structure increases, its dynamic responses will decrease which demands the use of higher value of damping ratio in the structure. Also the FORTRAN computer programme for solving the Duhamel's Integral has been improved in this paper.

  10. Dietary Sodium to Potassium Ratio and Risk of Stroke in a Multiethnic Urban Population: The Northern Manhattan Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Joshua; Gardener, Hannah; Cespedes, Sandino; Cheung, Ying K; Sacco, Ralph L; Elkind, Mitchell S V

    2017-11-01

    There is growing evidence that increased dietary sodium (Na) intake increases the risk of vascular diseases, including stroke, at least in part via an increase in blood pressure. Higher dietary potassium (K), seen with increased intake of fruits and vegetables, is associated with lower blood pressure. The goal of this study was to determine the association of a dietary Na:K with risk of stroke in a multiethnic urban population. Stroke-free participants from the Northern Manhattan Study, a population-based cohort study of stroke incidence, were followed-up for incident stroke. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were analyzed for Na and K intake. We estimated the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of Na:K with incident total stroke using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Among 2570 participants with dietary data (mean age, 69±10 years; 64% women; 21% white; 55% Hispanic; 24% black), the mean Na:K ratio was 1.22±0.43. Over a mean follow-up of 12 years, there were 274 strokes. In adjusted models, a higher Na:K ratio was associated with increased risk for stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1) and specifically ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.1). Na:K intake is an independent predictor of stroke risk. Further studies are required to understand the joint effect of Na and K intake on risk of cardiovascular disease. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Physically and psychologically hazardous jobs and mental health in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Strazdins, Lyndall; Lim, Lynette L-Y; Kelly, Matthew; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Sleigh, Adrian C

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates associations between hazardous jobs, mental health and wellbeing among Thai adults. In 2005, 87 134 distance-learning students from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University completed a self-administered questionnaire; at the 2009 follow-up 60 569 again participated. Job characteristics were reported in 2005, psychological distress and life satisfaction were reported in both 2005 and 2009. We derived two composite variables grading psychologically and physically hazardous jobs and reported adjusted odds ratios (AOR) from multivariate logistic regressions. Analyses focused on cohort members in paid work: the total was 62 332 at 2005 baseline and 41 671 at 2009 follow-up. Cross-sectional AORs linking psychologically hazardous jobs to psychological distress ranged from 1.52 (one hazard) to 4.48 (four hazards) for males and a corresponding 1.34-3.76 for females. Similarly AORs for physically hazardous jobs were 1.75 (one hazard) to 2.76 (four or more hazards) for males and 1.70-3.19 for females. A similar magnitude of associations was found between psychologically adverse jobs and low life satisfaction (AORs of 1.34-4.34 among males and 1.18-3.63 among females). Longitudinal analyses confirm these cross-sectional relationships. Thus, significant dose-response associations were found linking hazardous job exposures in 2005 to mental health and wellbeing in 2009. The health impacts of psychologically and physically hazardous jobs in developed, Western countries are equally evident in transitioning Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand. Regulation and monitoring of work conditions will become increasingly important to the health and wellbeing of the Thai workforce. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press.

  12. Physically and psychologically hazardous jobs and mental health in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Strazdins, Lyndall; Lim, Lynette L.-Y.; Kelly, Matthew; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Sleigh, Adrian C.

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates associations between hazardous jobs, mental health and wellbeing among Thai adults. In 2005, 87 134 distance-learning students from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University completed a self-administered questionnaire; at the 2009 follow-up 60 569 again participated. Job characteristics were reported in 2005, psychological distress and life satisfaction were reported in both 2005 and 2009. We derived two composite variables grading psychologically and physically hazardous jobs and reported adjusted odds ratios (AOR) from multivariate logistic regressions. Analyses focused on cohort members in paid work: the total was 62 332 at 2005 baseline and 41 671 at 2009 follow-up. Cross-sectional AORs linking psychologically hazardous jobs to psychological distress ranged from 1.52 (one hazard) to 4.48 (four hazards) for males and a corresponding 1.34–3.76 for females. Similarly AORs for physically hazardous jobs were 1.75 (one hazard) to 2.76 (four or more hazards) for males and 1.70–3.19 for females. A similar magnitude of associations was found between psychologically adverse jobs and low life satisfaction (AORs of 1.34–4.34 among males and 1.18–3.63 among females). Longitudinal analyses confirm these cross-sectional relationships. Thus, significant dose–response associations were found linking hazardous job exposures in 2005 to mental health and wellbeing in 2009. The health impacts of psychologically and physically hazardous jobs in developed, Western countries are equally evident in transitioning Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand. Regulation and monitoring of work conditions will become increasingly important to the health and wellbeing of the Thai workforce. PMID:24218225

  13. Validation of an in situ solidification/stabilization technique for hazardous barium and cyanide waste for safe disposal into a secured landfill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Rucha; Kodam, Kisan; Ghole, Vikram; Surya Mohan Rao, K

    2010-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to devise and validate an appropriate treatment process for disposal of hazardous barium and cyanide waste into a landfill at a Common Hazardous Waste Treatment Storage Disposal Facility (CHWTSDF). The waste was generated during the process of hardening of steel components and contains cyanide (reactive) and barium (toxic) as major contaminants. In the present study chemical fixation of the contaminants was carried out. The cyanide was treated by alkali chlorination with calcium hypochlorite and barium by precipitation with sodium sulfate as barium sulfate. The pretreated mixture was then solidified and stabilized by binding with a combination of slag cement, ordinary Portland cement and fly ash, molded into blocks (5 x 5 x 5 cm) and cured for a period of 3, 7 and 28 days. The final experiments were conducted with 18 recipe mixtures of waste + additive:binder (W:B) ratios. The W:B ratios were taken as 80:20, 70:30 and 50:50. The optimum proportions of additives and binders were finalized on the basis of the criteria of unconfined compressive strength and leachability. The leachability studies were conducted using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure. The blocks were analyzed for various physical and leachable chemical parameters at the end of each curing period. Based on the results of the analysis, two recipe mixtures, with compositions - 50% of [waste + (120 g Ca(OCl)(2) + 290 g Na(2)SO(4)) kg(-1) of waste] + 50% of binders, were validated for in situ stabilization into a secured landfill of CHWTSDF. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Chemical inventory control program for mixed and hazardous waste facilities at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ades, M.J.; Vincent, A.M. III.

    1997-01-01

    Mixed Waste (MW) and Hazardous Waste (HW) are being stored at the Savannah River Site (SRS) pending onsite and/or offsite treatment and disposal. The inventory control for these wastes has recently been brought under Technical Safety Requirements (TSR) in accordance with DOE Order 5480.22. With the TSRs was the question of the degree of rigor with which the inventory is to be tracked, considering that the variety of chemicals present, or that could be present, numbers in the hundreds. This paper describes the graded approach program to track Solid Waste (SW) inventories relative to TSRs. The approach uses a ratio of the maximum anticipated chemical inventory to the permissible inventory in accordance with Emergency Response Planning Guideline (ERPG) limits for on- and off-site receptors. A specific threshold ratio can then be determined. The chemicals above this threshold ratio are to be included in the chemical inventory control program. The chemicals that fall below the threshold ratio are managed in accordance with existing practice per State and RCRA hazardous materials requirements. Additionally, the facilities are managed in accordance with process safety management principles, specifically using process hazards analyses, which provides safety assurance for even the small quantities that may be excluded from the formal inventory control program. The method yields a practical approach to chemical inventory control, while maintaining appropriate chemical safety margins. The resulting number of specific chemicals that require inclusion in a rigorous inventory control program is greatly reduced by about 80%, thereby resulting in significant reduction in chemical data management while preserving appropriate safety margins

  15. Analyzing Accounting Ratios as Determinants of the LQ45 Stock Prices Movements in Indonesia Stock Exchange During the Period of 2002-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Arianto Toly

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The lack of studies regarding the determinants of stock price movement in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (ISX, which is an emerging stock exchange in the South East Asia region, and the pursue of generalization became the reasons of why this study. Previous research (Gupta, Chevalier, & Sayekt, 2000; Subiyantoro & Andreani, 2003, mostly focus on the external factors of the firms, instead of the internal factors. This study uses the accounting ratios as the determinants of the prices of stocks’ classified as the LQ45 in the ISX during 2002-2006. The panel-data regression model is used to test whether all of the independent variables involved in the equation could simultaneously explain the behavior of the dependent one. The developed model would be analyzed by the utilization of econometrics package, namely GRETL 1.7.4. After conducting some statistical treatments on the developed model, this study reveals that the shareholders’ ratios consisted of book value per share, dividend payout ratio, EPS, and ROA are the accounting ratios, which determine the LQ45’s stock price movement in the ISX during the period of 2002-2006.

  16. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  17. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  18. Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

    2014-06-01

    Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

  19. Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

    2017-01-01

    A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

  20. A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

    2018-03-01

    The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

  1. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  2. PERSEPSI PENGEMBANGAN PETA RAWAN GEMPA KOTA SEMARANG MELALUI PENELITIAN HAZARD GEMPA DETERMINISTIK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Windu Partono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Pengembangan peta resiko gempa berdasarkan analisa hazard gempa deterministik (DSHA merupakan salah satu tahapan yang sangat penting untuk mitigasi kegempaan Kota Semarang. Penelitian peta resiko gempa mencakup perhitungan hazard gempa, analisa kondisi tanah lokal (SSA dan analisa tingkat resiko kegempaan. Analisa hazard gempa diimplementasikan dengan pendekatan deterministic akibat gempa untuk sumber gempa sesar aktif disekitar Kota Semarang. Parameter geoteknik diperoleh dari hasil pengamatan atau pengujian geoteknik. Hasil dari penelitian ini mencakup pengembangan peta spektra percepatan gerakan tanah di permukaan dan faktor amplifikasi percepatan tanah yang sangat diperlukan pada pengembangan peta rawan gempa Kota Semarang.[Perception Development of Seismic Risk Map Semarang City Through Deterministic Hazard Analysis Research] Development of seismic risk map based on Deterministic Hazard Analysis (DSHA is an important step for seismic disaster mitigation for Semarang City. The study includes estimation of seismic hazard (DSHA, site specific response analysis (SSA and risk assessment. Seismic hazard is performed based on deterministic approach considering shallow crustal fault sources influencing Semarang City. Geotechnical parameters are interpreted from previous geotechnical measurements. The result of the hazard analysis includes the distribution of site response spectral acceleration and amplification ratios are performed corresponding to seismic risk assessment for Semarang City. 

  3. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    hazards, rainfall and sea surge, are both important. The core in the methodology is the application of copula functions as an extension of one-dimensional risk analysis and projections of future climatic changes. The results for Greater Copenhagen indicate that the dependence between the hazards is weak......In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  4. Pengaruh Debt to Equty Ratio, Current Ratio , Net Profit Margin Terhadap Harga Saham dengan Price Earning Ratio Sebagai Variabel Pemoderasi pada Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar di BEI Periode 2012-2014

    OpenAIRE

    Theresia, Paskah Lia

    2017-01-01

    This study conducted to analyze the effect of variable Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Current Ratio (CR), Net Profit Margin (NPM) andPrice Earnings Ratio (PER) to the Stock Prices with Price Earnings Ratio (PER) as an moderating variable on companies listed on Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2012 - 2014.The samplingtechnique used is purposive sampling and number of samples used by 23 companies. The analysis technique used are Descriptive Statistic Analysis, Classical Assumption Test, Hypothesis T...

  5. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  6. ANALISIS PENGARUH LDR, NPL DAN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY RATIO TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidah Hamidah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This research is performed on order to test analysis the influence of the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR, Non Performing Loan (NPL and Operational Efficiency Ratio (OER toward Return On Asset (ROA On Foreign Exchange Banks In Indonesia Period 2010-2012. Methodology research as the sample used purposive sampling, sample was accrued from foreign banks in Indonesia. Data analysis with multi linear regression of ordinary least square and hypotheses test used t-statistic and F statistic, a classic assumption examination to test the hypotheses.Based on normality test, multicolinearity test, heterosskedasticity test and auto correlation test were not found variables that deviate from the classical assumptions, this indicate that the available data has fulfill the condition to use multi linear regression model. This result of research show that variable LDR and NPL partially have positive influence but not significant toward ROA. Variable OERpartially have negative significant influence toward ROA. Variable LDR, NPL and OER simultaneously have significant influence toward ROA.

  7. TheUK approach to hazard assesment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willmore, P.L.; Burton, P.W.

    1976-01-01

    This approach takes into account the limitation of total magnitude range for UK events, as revaled by Gumbel's Third Distribution, and derives an estimate of the combination of magnitude and distance which is most likely to produce any given value of intensity. It thereby avoids some of the problems of defining real hazards in terms of historical intensity and of extrapolation to very long return periods

  8. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Mohindra

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

  9. Treatment of hazardous waste landfill leachate using Fenton oxidation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singa, Pradeep Kumar; Hasnain Isa, Mohamed; Ho, Yeek-Chia; Lim, Jun-Wei

    2018-03-01

    The efficiency of Fenton's oxidation was assessed in this study for hazardous waste landfill leachate treatment. The two major reagents, which are generally employed in Fenton's process are H2O2 as oxidizing agent and Fe2+ as catalyst. Batch experiments were conducted to determine the effect of experimental conditions viz., reaction time, molar ratio, and Fenton reagent dosages, which are significant parameters that influence the degradation efficiencies of Fenton process were examined. It was found that under the favorable experimental conditions, maximum COD removal was 56.49%. The optimum experimental conditions were pH=3, H2O2/Fe2+ molar ratio = 3 and reaction time = 150 minutes. The optimal amount of hydrogen peroxide and iron were 0.12 mol/L and 0.04 mol/L respectively. High dosages of H2O2 and iron resulted in scavenging effects on OH• radicals and lowered degradation efficiency of organic compounds in the hazardous waste landfill leachate.

  10. Performance Analysis: Control of Hazardous Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Grange, Connie E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Freeman, Jeff W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kerr, Christine E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2010-10-06

    LLNL experienced 26 occurrences related to the control of hazardous energy from January 1, 2008 through August 2010. These occurrences were 17% of the total number of reported occurrences during this 32-month period. The Performance Analysis and Reporting Section of the Contractor Assurance Office (CAO) routinely analyzes reported occurrences and issues looking for patterns that may indicate changes in LLNL’s performance and early indications of performance trends. It became apparent through these analyses that LLNL might have experienced a change in the control of hazardous energy and that these occurrences should be analyzed in more detail to determine if the perceived change in performance was real, whether that change is significant and if the causes of the occurrences are similar. This report documents the results of this more detailed analysis.

  11. Charged particle periodicity in the Saturnian magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbary, J.F.; Krimigis, S.M.

    1982-01-01

    The low energy charged particles (LECP) experiments on the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft performed measurements of electrons (approx.22 keV to approx.20 MeV) and ions (approx.28 keV to approx.150 MeV) during the Saturn encounters in 1980 and 1981. Count rate ratios of two of the low energy electron (22 to 35 keV and 183 to 500 keV) and ion (43 to 80 keV and 137 to 215 keV) channels exhibit an approximation 10 hour periodicity in the outer Saturnian magnetosphere beyond the orbit of Titan. Electron ratios vary from approx.50 to approx.300; ion ratios vary from approx.3 to approx.20. Similar but less pronounced periodicities are observed for higher and lower energy electron and ion spectral indices. Three complete cycles were observed during the Voyager 2 outbound portion of the encounter from which were determined an electron ratio period of 10/sup h/21/sup m/ +- 48/sup m/ and an ion ratio period of 9/sup h/49/sup m/ +- 59/sup m/. Using Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR) and Saturn Electrostatic Discharge (SED) periods, extrapolation backward from Voyager 2 to Voyager 1 suggests that the periodicities are Saturnian rather than Jovian in nature, and that they persist in phase for time intervals at least as long as 287 days. Ratio minima, or spectral hardenings, occur in the same hemisphere as do auroral brightenings, SKR activity, and spoke enhanement. We interpret the observations as prima facie evidence of an asymmetry in the Saturian magnetic field and the root cause of the observed SKR periodicity

  12. Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from

  13. Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

    OpenAIRE

    Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M.; Benito Oterino, Belen; Garcia Mayordomo, Julian

    2008-01-01

    Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil cond...

  14. Landslide hazard mapping with selected dominant factors: A study case of Penang Island, Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tay, Lea Tien; Alkhasawneh, Mutasem Sh.; Ngah, Umi Kalthum; Lateh, Habibah

    2015-01-01

    Landslide is one of the destructive natural geohazards in Malaysia. In addition to rainfall as triggering factos for landslide in Malaysia, topographical and geological factors play important role in the landslide susceptibility analysis. Conventional topographic factors such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature and profile curvature have been considered as landslide causative factors in many research works. However, other topographic factors such as diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity have not been considered, especially for the research work in landslide hazard analysis in Malaysia. This paper presents landslide hazard mapping using Frequency Ratio (FR) and the study area is Penang Island of Malaysia. Frequency ratio approach is a variant of probabilistic method that is based on the observed relationships between the distribution of landslides and each landslide-causative factor. Landslide hazard map of Penang Island is produced by considering twenty-two (22) landslide causative factors. Among these twenty-two (22) factors, fourteen (14) factors are topographic factors. They are elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature, longitudinal curvature, cross section curvature, total curvature, diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity. These topographic factors are extracted from the digital elevation model of Penang Island. The other eight (8) non-topographic factors considered are land cover, vegetation cover, distance from road, distance from stream, distance from fault line, geology, soil texture and rainfall precipitation. After considering all twenty-two factors for landslide hazard mapping, the analysis is repeated with fourteen dominant factors which are selected from the twenty-two factors. Landslide hazard map was segregated into four categories of risks, i.e. Highly hazardous area, Hazardous area, Moderately hazardous area

  15. Landslide hazard mapping with selected dominant factors: A study case of Penang Island, Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tay, Lea Tien; Alkhasawneh, Mutasem Sh.; Ngah, Umi Kalthum [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Penang (Malaysia); Lateh, Habibah [School of Distance Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11600 Penang (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    Landslide is one of the destructive natural geohazards in Malaysia. In addition to rainfall as triggering factos for landslide in Malaysia, topographical and geological factors play important role in the landslide susceptibility analysis. Conventional topographic factors such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature and profile curvature have been considered as landslide causative factors in many research works. However, other topographic factors such as diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity have not been considered, especially for the research work in landslide hazard analysis in Malaysia. This paper presents landslide hazard mapping using Frequency Ratio (FR) and the study area is Penang Island of Malaysia. Frequency ratio approach is a variant of probabilistic method that is based on the observed relationships between the distribution of landslides and each landslide-causative factor. Landslide hazard map of Penang Island is produced by considering twenty-two (22) landslide causative factors. Among these twenty-two (22) factors, fourteen (14) factors are topographic factors. They are elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature, longitudinal curvature, cross section curvature, total curvature, diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity. These topographic factors are extracted from the digital elevation model of Penang Island. The other eight (8) non-topographic factors considered are land cover, vegetation cover, distance from road, distance from stream, distance from fault line, geology, soil texture and rainfall precipitation. After considering all twenty-two factors for landslide hazard mapping, the analysis is repeated with fourteen dominant factors which are selected from the twenty-two factors. Landslide hazard map was segregated into four categories of risks, i.e. Highly hazardous area, Hazardous area, Moderately hazardous area

  16. Hazards and hazard combinations relevant for the safety of nuclear power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans; Raimond, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    The potential of the contemporaneous impact of different, yet causally related, hazardous events and event cascades on nuclear power plants is a major contributor to the overall risk of nuclear installations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, which was caused by a combination of severe ground shaking by an earthquake, an earthquake-triggered tsunami and the disruption of the plants from the electrical grid by a seismically induced landslide, hazard combinations and hazard cascades moved into the focus of nuclear safety research. We therefore developed an exhaustive list of external hazards and hazard combinations which pose potential threats to nuclear installations in the framework of the European project ASAMPSAE (Advanced Safety Assessment: Extended PSA). The project gathers 31 partners from Europe, North Amerika and Japan. The list comprises of exhaustive lists of natural hazards, external man-made hazards, and a cross-correlation matrix of these hazards. The hazard list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA, the Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA), and others. 73 natural hazards and 24 man-made external hazards are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismotectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire / wild fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The large number of different hazards results in the extremely large number of 5.151 theoretically possible hazard combinations (not considering hazard cascades). In principle all of these combinations are possible to occur by random coincidence except for 82 hazard combinations that - depending on the time scale - are mutually

  17. Hazardous Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... chemicals can still harm human health and the environment. When you throw these substances away, they become hazardous waste. Some hazardous wastes come from products in our homes. Our garbage can include such hazardous wastes as old batteries, bug spray cans and paint thinner. U.S. residents ...

  18. Hazard perception in traffic. [previously knows as: Hazard perception.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2008-01-01

    Hazard perception is an essential part of the driving task. There are clear indications that insufficient skills in perceiving hazards play an important role in the occurrence of crashes, especially those involving novice drivers. Proper hazard perception not only consists of scanning and perceiving

  19. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

    2008-06-01

    The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards

  20. Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Garcin

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

    The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

    This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation

  1. Annual report, RCRA post-closure monitoring and inspections for the mercury landfill hazardous waste trenches for the period October 1995--October 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emer, D.F.; Smith, J.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches were closed in-place in September 1993. Post-closure monitoring of the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches began in October 1993. The post-closure monitoring program is used to verify that the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trench covers are performing properly, and that there is no water infiltrating into the waste trenches. The performance of the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches is currently monitored using 30 neutron access tubes positioned on and along the margins of the covers. Soil moisture measurements are obtained in the soils directly beneath the trenches and compared to baseline conditions from the first year of post-closure operation. This report documents the post-closure activities between October 1995 and October 1996.

  2. Annual report, RCRA post-closure monitoring and inspections for the mercury landfill hazardous waste trenches for the period October 1995--October 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emer, D.F.; Smith, J.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches were closed in-place in September 1993. Post-closure monitoring of the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches began in October 1993. The post-closure monitoring program is used to verify that the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trench covers are performing properly, and that there is no water infiltrating into the waste trenches. The performance of the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches is currently monitored using 30 neutron access tubes positioned on and along the margins of the covers. Soil moisture measurements are obtained in the soils directly beneath the trenches and compared to baseline conditions from the first year of post-closure operation. This report documents the post-closure activities between October 1995 and October 1996

  3. The Effect of Tumor-Prostate Ratio on Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Yong Cho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Prostate tumor volume calculated after surgery using pathologic tissue has been shown to be an independent risk factor for biochemical recurrence. Nonetheless, prostate size varies among individuals, regardless of the presence or absence of cancer. We assumed to be lower margin positive rate in the surgical operation, when the prostate volume is larger and the tumor lesion is same. Thus, we defined the tumor-prostate ratio in the ratio of tumor volume to prostate volume. In order to compensate the prostate tumor volume, the effect of tumor-prostate ratio on biochemical recurrence was examined. Materials and Methods: This study included 251 patients who underwent open retropubic radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer in a single hospital. We analyzed the effects of tumor volume and tumor-prostate ratio, as well as the effects of known risk factors for biochemical recurrence, on the duration of disease-free survival. Results: In the univariate analysis, the risk factors that significantly impacted disease-free survival time were found to be a prostate-specific antigen level ≥10 ng/mL, a tumor volume ≥5 mL, tumor-prostate ratio ≥10%, tumor capsular invasion, lymph node invasion, positive surgical margins, and seminal vesicle invasion. In the multivariate analysis performed to evaluate the risk factors found to be significant in the univariate analysis, positive surgical margins (hazard ratio=3.066 and a tumor density ≥10% (hazard ratio=1.991 were shown to be significant risk factors for biochemical recurrence. Conclusions: Tumor-prostate ratio, rather than tumor volume, should be regarded as a significant risk factor for biochemical recurrence.

  4. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  5. Delimitation of the embryonic thermosensitive period for sex determination using an embryo growth model reveals a potential bias for sex ratio prediction in turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girondot, Marc; Monsinjon, Jonathan; Guillon, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-01

    The sexual phenotype of the gonad is dependent on incubation temperature in many turtles, all crocodilians, and some lepidosaurians. At hatching, identification of sexual phenotype is impossible without sacrificing the neonates. For this reason, a general method to infer sexual phenotype from incubation temperatures is needed. Temperature influences sex determination during a specific period of the embryonic development, starting when the gonad begins to form. At constant incubation temperatures, this thermosensitive period for sex determination (TSP) is located at the middle third of incubation duration (MTID). When temperature fluctuates, the position of the thermosensitive period for sex determination can be shifted from the MTID because embryo growth is affected by temperature. A method is proposed to locate the thermosensitive period for sex determination based on modelling the embryo growth, allowing its precise identification from a natural regime of temperatures. Results from natural nests and simulations show that the approximation of the thermosensitive period for sex determination to the middle third of incubation duration may create a quasi-systematic bias to lower temperatures when computing the average incubation temperature during this period and thus a male-bias for sex ratio estimate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimation of potential ecological hazard of solidificated waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krylova, N.V.

    1980-01-01

    The results of estimation of potential ecological hazard of vitrificated high-level radioactive wastes resulted from spent fuel reprocessing of LWR connected with a hypothetic storage damage being occurred in the 5O0-6000-year geologic period are presented. The total volume of the vitrificated wastes in the storage used for calculations is 12000 blocks. The data on vitrificated block radioactivity depending on the time after fuel regeneration, the density of the uniform distribution of vitrificated wastes over the earth surface, as well as the results of estimation of the man external and internal exposures due to radionuclide escape into the biosphere are given in tables. It is shown that the main hazard is caused by external irradiation. The inhalation dose may be significant for man, though the hazard due to radionuclide intake by ingestion is less

  7. The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesseloo, Johan

    2018-06-01

    Mining-induced seismic hazard assessment is an important component in the management of safety and financial risk in mines. As the seismic hazard is a response to the mining activity, it is non-stationary and variable both in space and time. This paper presents an approach for implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to assess the current hazard state of a mine. Each of the components of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is considered within the context of hard rock underground mines. The focus of this paper is the assessment of the in-mine hazard distribution and does not consider the hazard to nearby public or structures. A rating system and methodologies to present hazard maps, for the purpose of communicating to different stakeholders in the mine, i.e. mine managers, technical personnel and the work force, are developed. The approach allows one to update the assessment with relative ease and within short time periods as new data become available, enabling the monitoring of the spatial and temporal change in the seismic hazard.

  8. Selected problems of mine ventilation under conditions of gas and fire hazards. [Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosiek, F; Sikora, M; Urbanski, J

    1984-01-01

    Activities of the the Department for Ventilation, Fires and Occupational Safety in Wroclaw are evaluated. Until 1981 the Department concentrated its research programs on ventilation in copper mines; since 1982 its programs have also covered ventilation and hazards of endogenous fire in black coal mines. The Department investigated hazards of coal spontaneous combustion in Lower Silesian coal mines and proved that the hazards are associated with occurrence of specific layers in coal seams. When coal left in the goaf area came from a layer prone to spontaneous combustion hazards of endogenous fires were high. The Department developed a method for fire prevention using periodic reversal of goaf ventilation. Schemes for reverse ventilation are discussed.

  9. Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

  10. Consideration of In-Growth of Radionuclides for Facility Hazard Categorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mr. Robert E. Miller

    2007-01-01

    This paper addresses issues associated with the effects of daughter product in-growth on the hazard categorization of facilities in accordance with DOE-STD-1027-92, 'Hazard Categorization and Accident Analysis Techniques for Compliance with DOE Order 5480.23, Nuclear Safety Analysis Reports'. There is a list of issues that occur when performing facility hazard categorizations at DOE facilities. The first issue is when radionuclides are concentrated outside of their natural decay schemes, and the resulting daughter products exceed the hazard category three threshold quantity values (HC3 TQVs) while their parents do not. The second issue is if a parent nuclide is evaluated for the inhalation pathway, and the daughter product is evaluated using a different pathway and methodology. The third issue is when the parent and daughter are evaluated using the same pathway for exposure, but the daughter is significantly more radiotoxic than the parent. Lastly, when the TQVs were derived for hazard categorization, the methodology used involved a 24 hour exposure period during which, for the sake of simplicity, no consideration was given to decay and the subsequent in-growth of daughter products. Facility hazard categorization is a snapshot in time and does not provide an accurate inventory for long term operations and/or storage

  11. Liquidity Analysis Using Cash Flow Ratios as Compared to Traditional Ratios in the Pharmaceutical Sector in Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Sulayman H. Atieh

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the liquidity position of the Jordanian pharmaceutical sector using the traditional ratios as compared to the more recently developed cash flow ratios. The research involved the comparison between traditional ratios and cash flow ratios of the big seven companies of the pharmaceutical industry in Jordan over six years period (2007¨C2012). The companies were all from the same sector, and the data was obtained from the annual reports of these companies. T...

  12. A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

    2017-12-01

    We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

  13. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  14. Quantitative estimation of time-variable earthquake hazard by using fuzzy set theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deyi, Feng; Ichikawa, M.

    1989-11-01

    In this paper, the various methods of fuzzy set theory, called fuzzy mathematics, have been applied to the quantitative estimation of the time-variable earthquake hazard. The results obtained consist of the following. (1) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of seismicity data. By using some methods of fuzzy mathematics, seismicity patterns before large earthquakes can be studied more clearly and more quantitatively, highly active periods in a given region and quiet periods of seismic activity before large earthquakes can be recognized, similarities in temporal variation of seismic activity and seismic gaps can be examined and, on the other hand, the time-variable earthquake hazard can be assessed directly on the basis of a series of statistical indices of seismicity. Two methods of fuzzy clustering analysis, the method of fuzzy similarity, and the direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition, have been studied is particular. One method of fuzzy clustering analysis is based on fuzzy netting, and another is based on the fuzzy equivalent relation. (2) Quantitative estimation of the earthquake hazard on the basis of observational data for different precursors. The direct method of fuzzy pattern recognition has been applied to research on earthquake precursors of different kinds. On the basis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of recognized precursors, earthquake hazards in different terms can be estimated. This paper mainly deals with medium-short-term precursors observed in Japan and China.

  15. Graft survival rate of renal transplantation during a period of 10 years in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Shahbazi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Kidney transplantation is a preferred treatment for many patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD and is far more profitable than hemodialysis. Analyzing renal transplantation data can help to evaluate the effectiveness of transplantation interventions. The aim of this study was to determine the organ survival rate after kidney transplantation during a period of 10 years (March 2001-March 2011 among transplanted patients in Arak, Markazi Province, Iran. Materials and Methods: In this historical cohort study, all recipients of kidney transplantation from Arak, Markazi Province, Iran who had medical records in Valiasr Hospital and "charity for kidney patients" of Arak, Markazi Province, Iran during a period of 10 years from March 2001 to March 2011 were included. Data collected by using checklists were completed from patients′ hospital records. Kaplan-Meier method was used to determine the graft cumulative survival rate, log-rank test to compare survival curves in subgroups, and Cox regression model to define the hazard ratio and for ruling out the intervening factors. Statistical analysis was conducted by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 20 and Stata 11. Results: Mean duration of follow-up was 55.43 ± 42.02 months. By using the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative probability of graft survival at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was 99.1, 97.7, 94.3, 85.7, and 62.1%, respectively. The number of dialysis by controlling the effect of other variables had a significant association with the risk of graft failure [hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.47 (1.02-2.13]. Conclusion: This study showed that the graft survival rate was satisfactory in this community and was similar to the results of single-center studies in the world. Dialysis time after transplantation was a significant predictor of survival in the recipients of kidney transplantation that should be considered.

  16. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

    2017-06-01

    We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  17. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Stirling

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  18. Annual Report RCRA Post-Closure Monitoring and Inspections for CAU 112: Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for the Period October 1999-October 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. F. Emer

    2001-03-01

    This annual Neutron Soil Moisture Monitoring report provides an analysis and summary for site inspections, meteorological information, and neutron soil moisture monitoring data obtained at the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) unit, located in Area 23 of the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, during the October 1999-October 2000 period. Inspections of the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches RCRA unit are conducted to determine and document the physical condition of the covers, facilities, and any unusual conditions that could impact the proper operation of the waste unit closure. Physical inspections of the closure were completed quarterly and indicated that the site is in good condition with no significant findings noted. An annual subsidence survey of the elevation markers was conducted in August 2000. There has been no subsidence at any of the markers since monitoring began seven years ago. The objective of the neutron logging program is to monitor the soil moisture conditions along 30 neutron access tubes and detect changes that maybe indicative of moisture movement at a point located directly beneath each trench. Precipitation for the period October 1999 through October 2000 was 10.44 centimeters (cm) (4.11 inches [in.]) (U.S. National Weather Service, 2000). The prior year annual rainfall (January 1999 through December 1999) was 10.13cm (3.99 in.). The highest 30-day cumulative rainfall occurred on March 8, 2000, with a total of 6.63 cm (2.61 in.). The heaviest daily precipitation occurred on February 23,2000, with a total of 1.70 cm (0.67 in.) falling in that 24-hour period. The recorded average annual rainfall for this site, from 1972 to January 1999, is 15.06 cm (5.93 in.). All monitored access tubes are within the compliance criteria of less than 5 percent residual volumetric moisture content at the compliance point directly beneath each respective trench. Soil conditions remain dry and stable underneath the

  19. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

    2018-01-01

    We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

  20. Theoretical growth rates, periods, and pulsation constants for long-period variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, M.W.; Wood, P.R.

    1982-01-01

    Theoretical values of the growth rate, period, and pulsation constant for the first three radial pulsation modes in red giants (Population II and galactic disk) and supergiants have been derived in the linear, nonadiabatic approximation. The effects of altering the surface boundary conditions, the effective temperature (or mixing length), and the opacity in the outer layers have been explored. In the standard models, the Q-value for the first overtone can be much larger (Q 1 1 roughly-equal0.04); in addition, the Q-value for the fundamental mode is reduced from previous values, as is the period ratio P 0 /P 1 . The growth rate for the fundamental mode is found to increase with luminosity on the giant branch while the growth rate for the first overtone decreases. Dynamical instabilities found in previous adiabatic models of extreme red giants do not occur when nonadiabatic effects are included in the models. In some massive, luminous models, period ratios P 0 /P 1 approx.7 occur when P 0 approx.2000--5000 days; it is suggested that the massive galactic supergiants and carbon stars which have secondary periods Papprox.2000--7000 days and primary periods Papprox.300--700 days are first-overtone pulsators in which the long secondary periods are due to excitation of the fundamental mode. Some other consequences of the present results are briefly discussed, with particular emphasis on the mode of pulsation of the Mira variables. Subject headings: stars: long-period variables: stars: pulsation: stars: supergiants

  1. Revision to flood hazard evaluation for the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2014-08-25

    Requirements for the Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are outlined in DOE Order 420.1. This report examines the hazards posed by potential flooding and represents an update to two previous reports. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve is defined as the water elevation for each annual probability of precipitation occurrence (or inversely, the return period in years). New design hyetographs for both 6-hr and 24-hr precipitation distributions were used in conjunction with hydrological models of various basins within the Savannah River Site (SRS). For numerous locations of interest, peak flow discharge and flood water elevation were determined. In all cases, the probability of flooding of these facilities for a 100,000 year precipitation event is negligible.

  2. Mitigation of the most hazardous tank at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.A.

    1994-09-01

    Various tanks at the Hanford Site have been declared to be unresolved safety problems. This means that the tank has the potential to be beyond the limits covered by the current safety documentation. Tank 241-SY-101 poses the greatest hazard. The waste stored in this tank has periodically released hydrogen gas which exceeds the lower flammable limits. A mixer pump was installed in this tank to stir the waste. Stirring the waste would allow the hydrogen to be released slowly in a controlled manner and mitigate the hazard associated with this tank. The testing of this mixer pump is reported in this document. The mixer pump has been successful in controlling the hydrogen concentration in the tank dome to below the flammable limit which has mitigated the hazardous gas releases

  3. Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

  4. Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yong; Shi, Bao-Ping; Sun, Liang

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismicity model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and calculated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which include Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.

  5. Health hazards to children in agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilk, V A

    1993-09-01

    Children comprise a significant portion of the agricultural workforce and are exposed to many workplace hazards, including farm machinery, pesticides, poor field sanitation, unsafe transportation, and fatigue from doing physically demanding work for long periods. Migrant farmworker children face the additional hazard of substandard or nonexistent housing in the fields. Children account for a disproportionate share of agricultural workplace fatalities and disabling injuries, with more than 300 deaths and 27,000 injuries per year. The most common cause of fatal and nonfatal injury among children in agriculture is farm machinery, with tractors accounting for the greatest number. Remedies to the problems of child labor must take into account family economics and the need for child care. Labor law reform and rigorous enforcement of existing laws and of workplace health and safety requirements are vital to better protect the children and adults working in agriculture.

  6. Periodicity of the stable isotopes

    CERN Document Server

    Boeyens, J C A

    2003-01-01

    It is demonstrated that all stable (non-radioactive) isotopes are formally interrelated as the products of systematically adding alpha particles to four elementary units. The region of stability against radioactive decay is shown to obey a general trend based on number theory and contains the periodic law of the elements as a special case. This general law restricts the number of what may be considered as natural elements to 100 and is based on a proton:neutron ratio that matches the golden ratio, characteristic of biological and crystal growth structures. Different forms of the periodic table inferred at other proton:neutron ratios indicate that the electronic configuration of atoms is variable and may be a function of environmental pressure. Cosmic consequences of this postulate are examined. (author)

  7. Hazardous alcohol consumption is a major factor in male premature mortality in a typical Russian city: prospective cohort study 2003-2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susannah Tomkins

    Full Text Available Russia has experienced massive fluctuations in mortality at working ages over the past three decades. Routine data analyses suggest that these are largely driven by fluctuations in heavy alcohol drinking. However, individual-level evidence supporting alcohol having a major role in Russian mortality comes from only two case-control studies, which could be subject to serious biases due to their design.A prospective study of mortality (2003-9 of 2000 men aged 25-54 years at recruitment was conducted in the city of Izhevsk, Russia. This cohort was free from key limitations inherent in the design of the two earlier case-control studies. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of all-cause mortality by alcohol drinking type as reported by a proxy informant. Hazardous drinkers were defined as those who either drank non-beverage alcohols or were reported to regularly have hangovers or other behaviours related to heavy drinking episodes. Over the follow-up period 113 men died. Compared to non-hazardous drinkers and abstainers, men who drank hazardously had appreciably higher mortality (HR = 3.4, 95% CI 2.2, 5.1 adjusted for age, smoking and education. The population attributable risk percent (PAR% for hazardous drinking was 26% (95% CI 14,37. However, larger effects were seen in the first two years of follow-up, with a HR of 4.6 (2.5, 8.2 and a corresponding PAR% of 37% (17, 51.This prospective cohort study strengthens the evidence that hazardous alcohol consumption has been a major determinant of mortality among working age men in a typical Russian city. As such the similar findings of the previous case-control studies cannot be explained as artefacts of limitations of their design. As Russia struggles to raise life expectancy, which even in 2009 was only 62 years among men, control of hazardous drinking must remain a top public health priority.

  8. Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

  9. ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS AS A CAUSE OF PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE ADMISSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasser Ali Haidar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Children are exposed to several environmental hazards with variable effects from mild to severe manifestations leading to death. The aim of this study is to study the pattern of Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU admission due to environmental hazards and its mortality rate. Methods: This is a hospital-based study conducted during a 5 years period in Al-Madinah Al-Munwarah, Saudi Arabia. Results: Out of total PICU admissions, 9% were due to environmental hazards. Bronchial asthma which is triggered mostly by environmental factors, was the most common (35.3% followed by: trauma (27%, poisoning (15.3% and submersion injuries (9.7%. Males were significantly more exposed to environmental hazard than females (χ2= 13, p = 0.021. Statistical analysis showed a significant difference in the frequency of environmental hazards between summer and winter (χ2= 12, p = 0.033. Trauma, poisoning, submersion injuries, stings and bites were more in summer compared to winter. However, bronchial asthma had higher frequency in winter. The Median length of PICU stay ranges from 1.6 – 12.5 days depending on the type of hazard. Overall mortality rate was 8.8% with the highest rate among trauma followed by submersion injury patients with no fatality in drug ingestion or food poisoning. Conclusion: Environmental hazards represent a preventable major health problem with significant mortality and burden in health economics by long PICU stay and its sequel.

  10. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GAULT, G.W.

    1999-10-13

    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved TWRS Authorization Basis (AB). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the TWRS FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The TWRS Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The database supports the preparation of Chapters 3,4, and 5 of the TWRS FSAR and the USQ process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Evaluation Database--Data from the results of the hazard evaluations; and (2) Hazard Topography Database--Data from the system familiarization and hazard identification.

  11. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  12. A model used to derive hazardous waste concentration limits aiming at the reduction of toxic and hazardous wastes. Applications to illustrate the discharge of secondary categories types B and C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paris, P.

    1989-11-01

    This report describes a model which may be used to derive hazardous waste concentration limits in order to prevent ground water pollution from a landfill disposal. First the leachate concentration limits are determined taking into account the attenuation capacity of the landfill-site as a whole; waste concentrations are then derived by an elution model which assumes a constant ratio between liquid-solid concentrations. In the example two types of landfill have been considered and in each case concentration limits have been calculated for some hazardous substances and compared with the corresponding regulatory limits. (author)

  13. Handbook of hazardous waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metry, A.A.

    1980-01-01

    The contents of this work are arranged so as to give the reader a detailed understanding of the elements of hazardous waste management. Generalized management concepts are covered in Chapters 1 through 5 which are entitled: Introduction, Regulations Affecting Hazardous Waste Management, Comprehensive Hazardous Waste Management, Control of Hazardous Waste Transportation, and Emergency Hazardous Waste Management. Chapters 6 through 11 deal with treatment concepts and are entitled: General Considerations for Hazardous Waste Management Facilities, Physical Treatment of Hazardous Wastes, Chemical Treatment of Hazardous Wastes, Biological Treatment of Hazardous Wastes, Incineration of Hazardous Wastes, and Hazardous Waste Management of Selected Industries. Chapters 12 through 15 are devoted to ultimate disposal concepts and are entitled: Land Disposal Facilities, Ocean Dumping of Hazardous Wastes, Disposal of Extremely Hazardous Wastes, and Generalized Criteria for Hazardous Waste Management Facilities

  14. Flux quantization in periodic networks containing tiles with irrational ratio of areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhanam, P.; Chi, C.C.; Molzen, W.W.

    1988-01-01

    We report measurements of the superconducting-normal transition boundary T/sub c/(H) of two-dimensional periodic networks with two different space-group symmetries in a magnetic field. Each network is a mixture of squares and equilateral triangles. In both cases, we observe maxima in T/sub c/(H) with one major period, which does not correspond to the area of either the square or the triangle. We interpret the results in terms of flux configurations whose energies are sensitive to the geometry of a given network

  15. Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvioli, Massimiliano; Melillo, Massimo; Guzzetti, Fausto; Rossi, Mauro; Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia

    2018-07-15

    The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards. Copyright

  16. Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne L Nel

    Full Text Available Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes, it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

  17. Egyptian Environmental Activities and Regulations for Management of Hazardous Substances and Hazardous Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Zarka, M.

    1999-01-01

    A substantial use of hazardous substances is essential to meet the social and economic goals of the community in Egypt. Agrochemicals are being used extensively to increase crop yield. The outdated agrochemicals and their empty containers represent a serious environmental problem. Industrial development in different sectors in Egypt obligates handling of huge amounts of hazardous substances and hazardous wastes. The inappropriate handling of such hazardous substances creates several health and environmental problems. Egypt faces many challenges to control safe handling of such substances and wastes. Several regulations are governing handling of hazardous substances in Egypt. The unified Environmental Law 4 for the year 1994 includes a full chapter on the Management of Hazardous Substances and Hazardous Wastes. National and international activities have been taken to manage hazardous substances and hazardous wastes in an environmental sound manner

  18. Ratios of involved nodes in early breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinh-Hung, Vincent; Royce, Melanie; Verschraegen, Claire; Promish, Donald I; Cserni, Gábor; Van de Steene, Jan; Tai, Patricia; Vlastos, Georges; Voordeckers, Mia; Storme, Guy

    2004-01-01

    The number of lymph nodes found to be involved in an axillary dissection is among the most powerful prognostic factors in breast cancer, but it is confounded by the number of lymph nodes that have been examined. We investigate an idea that has surfaced recently in the literature (since 1999), namely that the proportion of node-positive lymph nodes (or a function thereof) is a much better predictor of survival than the number of excised and node-positive lymph nodes, alone or together. The data were abstracted from 83,686 cases registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of women diagnosed with nonmetastatic T1–T2 primary breast carcinoma between 1988 and 1997, in whom axillary node dissection was performed. The end-point was death from breast cancer. Cox models based on different expressions of nodal involvement were compared using the Nagelkerke R 2 index (R 2 N ). Ratios were modeled as percentage and as log odds of involved nodes. Log odds were estimated in a way that avoids singularities (zero values) by using the empirical logistic transform. In node-negative cases both the number of nodes excised and the log odds were significant, with hazard ratios of 0.991 (95% confidence interval 0.986–0.997) and 1.150 (1.058–1.249), respectively, but without improving R 2 N . In node-positive cases the hazard ratios were 1.003–1.088 for the number of involved nodes, 0.966–1.005 for the number of excised nodes, 1.015–1.017 for the percentage, and 1.344–1.381 for the log odds. R 2 N improved from 0.067 (no nodal covariate) to 0.102 (models based on counts only) and to 0.108 (models based on ratios). Ratios are simple optimal predictors, in that they provide at least the same prognostic value as the more traditional staging based on counting of involved nodes, without replacing them with a needlessly complicated alternative. They can be viewed as a per patient standardization in which the number of involved nodes is standardized

  19. Nontypical hazards associated with D ampersand D of power, weapons, and research and reactor plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renk, F.A. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Nontypical hazards such as asbestos and lead exist throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) weapons and research and reactor plants and commercial power plants. Most plants have encountered and identified these hazards during routine maintenance, modification, and repair activities. The decision to abate asbestos and lead is often cost-prohibitive and outweighed by the hazards created by the removal process; therefore, management-in-place concepts were and continue to be chosen as an alternative. This concept controls the hazard by using encapsulation, enclosure, and barrier installation techniques. Long-term operation and maintenance plans are then developed and implemented for periodic inspection, air monitoring, and repair. Although in-place-management plans tend to cover up the hazard, they provide an excellent source for the hazard recognition and identification phase by the paper trail the create

  20. Hazard classification methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brereton, S.J.

    1996-01-01

    This document outlines the hazard classification methodology used to determine the hazard classification of the NIF LTAB, OAB, and the support facilities on the basis of radionuclides and chemicals. The hazard classification determines the safety analysis requirements for a facility

  1. Flooding Hazards across Southern China and Prospective Sustainability Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Min Lyu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The Yangtze River Basin and Huaihe River Basin in Southern China experienced severe floods 1998 and 2016. The reasons for the flooding hazards include the following two factors: hazardous weather conditions and degradation of the hydrological environment due to anthropogenic activities. This review work investigated the weather conditions based on recorded data, which showed that both 1998 and 2016 were in El Nino periods. Human activities include the degradations of rivers and lakes and the effects caused by the building of the Three Gorges Dam. In addition, the flooding in 2016 had a lower hazard scale than that in 1998 but resulted in larger economic losses than that of 1998. To mitigate urban waterlogging caused by flooding hazards, China proposed a new strategy named Spongy City (SPC in 2014. SPC promotes sustainable city development so that a city has the resilience to adapt to climate change, to mitigate the impacts of waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall events. The countermeasures used to tackle the SPC construction-related problems, such as local inundation, water resource shortage, storm water usage, and water pollution control, are proposed for city management to improve the environment.

  2. Interconnected ponds operation for flood hazard distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putra, S. S.; Ridwan, B. W.

    2016-05-01

    The climatic anomaly, which comes with extreme rainfall, will increase the flood hazard in an area within a short period of time. The river capacity in discharging the flood is not continuous along the river stretch and sensitive to the flood peak. This paper contains the alternatives on how to locate the flood retention pond that are physically feasible to reduce the flood peak. The flood ponds were designed based on flood curve number criteria (TR-55, USDA) with the aim of rapid flood peak capturing and gradual flood retuning back to the river. As a case study, the hydrologic condition of upper Ciliwung river basin with several presumed flood pond locations was conceptually designed. A fundamental tank model that reproducing the operation of interconnected ponds was elaborated to achieve the designed flood discharge that will flows to the downstream area. The flood hazard distribution status, as the model performance criteria, will be computed within Ciliwung river reach in Manggarai Sluice Gate spot. The predicted hazard reduction with the operation of the interconnected retention area result had been bench marked with the normal flow condition.

  3. Radioactive anomaly discrimination from spectral ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, James; Sjoden, Glenn; Chapman, Mac Clements

    2013-08-20

    A method for discriminating a radioactive anomaly from naturally occurring radioactive materials includes detecting a first number of gamma photons having energies in a first range of energy values within a predetermined period of time and detecting a second number of gamma photons having energies in a second range of energy values within the predetermined period of time. The method further includes determining, in a controller, a ratio of the first number of gamma photons having energies in the first range and the second number of gamma photons having energies in the second range, and determining that a radioactive anomaly is present when the ratio exceeds a threshold value.

  4. Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

    2016-04-01

    ) and earthquake (475 years return period) was used. Topography, lithology, soil moisture and LU/LC were also accounted for. Soil erosion risk was assessed through the empirical model RUSLE (Renard et al. 1991b). Rainfall erosivity, topography and vegetation cover are the main parameters which were used for predicting the proneness to soil loss. Expected, maximum tsunami wave heights were estimated for a specific earthquake scenario at designated forecast points along the coasts. Deformation at the source was calculated by utilizing the Okada code (Okada, 1985). Tsunami waves' generation and propagation is based on the SWAN model (JRC/IPSC modification). To estimate the wave height (forecast points) the Green's Law function was used (JRC Tsunami Analysis Tool). Storm tracks' historical data indicate a return period of 17 /41 years for H1 /H2 hurricane categories respectively. NOAA WAVEWATCH III model hindcast reanalysis was used to estimate the maximum significant wave height (wind and swell) along the coastline during two major storms. The associated storm-surge risk assessment accounted also for the coastline morphology. Seven empirical (independent) indicators were used to express the erosion susceptibility of the coasts. Each indicator is evaluated according to a semi?quantitative score that represents low, medium and high level of erosion risk or impact. The estimation of the coastal erosion hazard was derived through aggregating the indicators in a grid scale.

  5. Preventing method and device for underground permeation of hazardous material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funabashi, Kiyomi; Kurokawa, Hideaki; Fukazawa, Tetsuo; Yamazaki, Tadashi.

    1996-01-01

    In a method of preventing hazardous materials from permeating into ground by burying adsorbing materials underground, a plurality of adsorbing layers are laminated being spaced apart from each other, the concentration of the hazardous materials between each of the adsorbent layers is measured. When the concentration reaches a predetermined value, the adsorbent layers are regenerated. A suppression means for preventing hazardous materials from permeating into the ground are formed by an upper adsorbent layer and a lower adsorbent layer, and a means for measuring the concentration of hazardous materials passing through the upper adsorbent layer and a means for charging and discharging regenerated liquid are disposed. When it is detected that the poisonous materials can not be eliminated, the poisonous materials are already permeated to the adsorbent layer, and they start to inflow into underground water. In order to prevent it, an adsorbent layer is additionally disposed at the lower side of the place of detection to eliminate the poisonous materials completely thereby enabling to prevent poisonous materials from permeating into underground for a long period of time. (T.M.)

  6. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  7. Introducing optional reserve ratios in Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Lóránt Varga

    2010-01-01

    As of the reserve maintenance period commencing in November 2010, Hungarian credit institutions will be free to decide whether to apply the previously valid 2% reserve ratio, or to apply a higher mandatory reserve ratio. Credit institutions required to hold reserves may select from reserve ratios of 2, 3, 4 and 5%, and may change their decision on a semi-annual basis. In line with the international best practice, the purpose of the MNB’s reserve requirement system is to support credit institu...

  8. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    separately for each peril. Several models were implemented used to simulate the relevant processes involved. These models were fed by global and local climate data and geological data like elevation, slope, land use, soil characteristics etc. Exposure is a measure of the assets and population at risk. An extensive data collection and processing effort was carried out to derive nation-wide exposure data. Vulnerability is a measure of potential exposure losses if a hazardous event occurs. Vulnerability analyses were carried out separately for each peril, because of differences in impact characteristics. Damage functions were derived from asset characteristics and/or experiences from (international) literature. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level (admin0), province level (admin1) and district level (admin2). Hazard maps are provided for various return periods, including 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years. All maps are stored in a Web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with [1] generic data (catchment boundaries, rivers etc), [2] hazard maps, [3] exposure maps and [4] risk maps for each of the considered perils.

  9. Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

  10. Prospects and pitfalls of occupational hazard mapping: 'between these lines there be dragons'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Kirsten A; Volckens, John

    2011-10-01

    Hazard data mapping is a promising new technique that can enhance the process of occupational exposure assessment and risk communication. Hazard maps have the potential to improve worker health by providing key input for the design of hazard intervention and control strategies. Hazard maps are developed with aid from direct-reading instruments, which can collect highly spatially and temporally resolved data in a relatively short period of time. However, quantifying spatial-temporal variability in the occupational environment is not a straightforward process, and our lack of understanding of how to ascertain and model spatial and temporal variability is a limiting factor in the use and interpretation of workplace hazard maps. We provide an example of how sources of and exposures to workplace hazards may be mischaracterized in a hazard map due to a lack of completeness and representativeness of collected measurement data. Based on this example, we believe that a major priority for research in this emerging area should focus on the development of a statistical framework to quantify uncertainty in spatially and temporally varying data. In conjunction with this need is one for the development of guidelines and procedures for the proper sampling, generation, and evaluation of workplace hazard maps.

  11. Hazard evaluation of inorganics, singly and in mixtures, to Flannelmouth Sucker Catostomus latipinnis in the San Juan River, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, S.J.; Buhl, K.J.

    1997-01-01

    Larval flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) were exposed to arsenate, boron, copper, molybdenum, selenate, selenite, uranium, vanadium, and zinc singly, and to five mixtures of five to nine inorganics. The exposures were conducted in reconstituted water representative of the San Juan River near Shiprock, New Mexico. The mixtures simulated environmental ratios reported for sites along the San Juan River (San Juan River backwater, Fruitland marsh, Hogback East Drain, Mancos River, and McElmo Creek). The rank order of the individual inorganics, from most to least toxic, was: copper > zinc > vanadium > selenite > selenate > arsenate > uranium > boron > molybdenum. All five mixtures exhibited additive toxicity to flannelmouth sucker. In a limited number of tests, 44-day-old and 13-day-old larvae exhibited no difference in sensitivity to three mixtures. Copper was the major toxic component in four mixtures (San Juan backwater, Hogback East Drain, Mancos River, and McElmo Creek), whereas zinc was the major toxic component in the Fruitland marsh mixture, which did not contain copper. The Hogback East Drain was the most toxic mixture tested. Comparison of 96-h LC50values with reported environmental water concentrations from the San Juan River revealed low hazard ratios for arsenic, boron, molybdenum, selenate, selenite, uranium, and vanadium, moderate hazard ratios for zinc and the Fruitland marsh mixture, and high hazard ratios for copper at three sites and four environmental mixtures representing a San Juan backwater, Hogback East Drain, Mancos River, and McElmo Creek. The high hazard ratios suggest that inorganic contaminants could adversely affect larval flannelmouth sucker in the San Juan River at four sites receiving elevated inorganics.

  12. Input for seismic hazard assessment using Vrancea seismic source region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivan, Iren-Adelina; Enescu, B.D.; Pantea, A.

    1998-01-01

    We use an extended and combined data base including historical and modern, qualitative and quantitative data, i.e., more than 25 events during the period 1790 - 1990 with epicentral/maximum intensities ranging from X to V degree (MSK scale), the variation interval of isoseismal curves ranging from IX th to III rd degree. The data set was analysed using both the sum phasor techniques of Ridelek and Sacks (1984) for different magnitudes and depth intervals and the Stepp's method. For the assessment of seismic hazard we need a pattern of seismic source regions including an estimation for the maximum expected magnitude and the return period for the studied regions. Another necessary step in seismic hazard assessment is to develop attenuation relationships specific to a seismogenic zone, particularly to sub-crustal earthquakes of Vrancea region. The conceptual frame involves the use of appropriate decay models and consideration of the randomness in the attenuation, taking into account the azimuthal variation of the isoseist shapes. (authors)

  13. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  14. Influence of void ratio on thermal performance of heat pipe receiver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gui Xiaohong; Tang Dawei; Liang Shiqiang; Lin Bin; Yuan Xiugan

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The temperature gradient increases significantly and the utility ratio of PCM decreases obviously as void ratio increases. ► Void cavity influences the process of phase change greatly. ► PCM melts slowly during sunlight periods and freezes slowly during eclipse periods as void ratio increases. ► The temperature gradient of PCM zone is very significant with the effect of void cavity. - Abstract: In this paper, influence of void ratio on thermal performance of heat pipe receiver under microgravity is numerically simulated. Accordingly, mathematical model is set up. Numerical method is offered. The temperature field of Phase Change Material (PCM) canister is shown. Numerical results are compared with numerical ones of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Numerical results show that the temperature gradient increases significantly and the utility ratio of PCM decreases obviously as void ratio increases. Void cavity influences the process of phase change greatly. PCM melts slowly during sunlight periods and freezes slowly during eclipse periods as void ratio increases. The thermal resistance of void cavity is much bigger than that of PCM canister wall. Void cavity prevents the heat transfer between PCM zone and canister wall. The temperature gradient of PCM zone is very significant with the effect of void cavity. So the thermal stress of heat pipe receiver may increase, and the lifetime may decrease as void ratio increases.

  15. Annual Report RCRA Post-Closure Monitoring and Inspections for CAU 112: Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for the period October 2000-July 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobiason, D. S.

    2002-01-01

    This annual Neutron Soil Moisture Monitoring report provides an analysis and summary for site inspections, meteorological information, and neutron soil moisture monitoring data obtained at the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) unit, located in Area 23 of the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, during the October 2000--July 2001 monitoring period. Inspections of the Area 23 Hazardous Waste Trenches RCRA unit are conducted to determine and document the physical condition of the covers, facilities, and any unusual conditions that could impact the proper operation of the waste unit closure. Physical inspections of the closure were completed quarterly and indicated that the site is in good condition with no significant findings noted. An annual subsidence survey of the elevation markers was conducted in July 2001. There has been no subsidence at any of the markers since monitoring began eight years ago. Precipitation for the period October 2000 through July 2001 was 9.42 centimeters (cm) (3.71 inches [in]) (U.S. National Weather Service, 2001). The prior year annual rainfall (January 2000 through December 2000) was 10.44 cm (4.1 1 in.). The recorded average annual rainfall for this site from 1972 to January 2000 is 14.91 cm (5.87 in.). The objective of the neutron logging program is to monitor the soil moisture conditions along 30 neutron access tubes and detect changes that may be indicative of moisture movement at a point located directly beneath each trench. All monitored access tubes are within the compliance criteria of less than 5 percent residual volumetric moisture content at the compliance point directly beneath each respective trench. Soil conditions remain dry and stable underneath the trenches

  16. Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciro Del Negro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and through characterization of the event types for the numerical simulations and the computation of the eruptive probabilities. Numerical simulations of lava-flow paths were carried out using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. To validate the methodology developed, a hazard map was built by considering only the eruptions that occurred at Mount Etna before 1981. On the basis of the probability of coverage by lava flows, the map was divided into ten classes, and two fitting scores were calculated to measure the overlap between the hazard classes and the actual shapes of the lava flows that occurred after 1981.

  17. Different male versus female breeding periodicity helps mitigate offspring sex ratio skews in sea turtles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graeme Clive Hays

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The implications of climate change for global biodiversity may be profound with those species with little capacity for adaptation being thought to be particularly vulnerable to warming. A classic case of groups for concern are those animals exhibiting temperature-dependent sex-determination (TSD, such as sea turtles, where climate warming may produce single sex populations and hence extinction. We show that, globally, female biased hatchling sex ratios dominate sea turtle populations (exceeding 3:1 in >50% records, which, at-a-glance, reiterates concerns for extinction. However, we also demonstrate that more frequent breeding by males, empirically shown by satellite tracking 23 individuals and supported by a generalized bio-energetic life history model, generates more balanced operational sex ratios (OSRs. Hence, concerns of increasingly skewed hatchling sex ratios and reduced population viability are less acute than previously thought for sea turtles. In fact, in some scenarios skewed hatchling sex ratios in groups with TSD may be adaptive to ensure optimum OSRs.

  18. ''Hazardous'' terminology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powers, J.

    1991-01-01

    A number of terms (e.g., ''hazardous chemicals,'' ''hazardous materials,'' ''hazardous waste,'' and similar nomenclature) refer to substances that are subject to regulation under one or more federal environmental laws. State laws and regulations also provide additional, similar, or identical terminology that may be confused with the federally defined terms. Many of these terms appear synonymous, and it easy to use them interchangeably. However, in a regulatory context, inappropriate use of narrowly defined terms can lead to confusion about the substances referred to, the statutory provisions that apply, and the regulatory requirements for compliance under the applicable federal statutes. This information Brief provides regulatory definitions, a brief discussion of compliance requirements, and references for the precise terminology that should be used when referring to ''hazardous'' substances regulated under federal environmental laws. A companion CERCLA Information Brief (EH-231-004/0191) addresses ''toxic'' nomenclature

  19. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    CERN Document Server

    Grams, W H

    2000-01-01

    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U S . Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for HNF-SD-WM-SAR-067, Tank Farms Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved Authorization Basis (AB) for the River Protection Project (RPP). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the Tank Farms FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The Hazard Analysis Database supports the preparation of Chapters 3 ,4 , and 5 of the Tank Farms FSAR and the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Analysis Database: Data from t...

  20. The Optimizer Topology Characteristics in Seismic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengor, T.

    2015-12-01

    The characteristic data of the natural phenomena are questioned in a topological space approach to illuminate whether there is an algorithm behind them bringing the situation of physics of phenomena to optimized states even if they are hazards. The optimized code designing the hazard on a topological structure mashes the metric of the phenomena. The deviations in the metric of different phenomena push and/or pull the fold of the other suitable phenomena. For example if the metric of a specific phenomenon A fits to the metric of another specific phenomenon B after variation processes generated with the deviation of the metric of previous phenomenon A. Defining manifold processes covering the metric characteristics of each of every phenomenon is possible for all the physical events; i.e., natural hazards. There are suitable folds in those manifold groups so that each subfold fits to the metric characteristics of one of the natural hazard category at least. Some variation algorithms on those metric structures prepare a gauge effect bringing the long time stability of Earth for largely scaled periods. The realization of that stability depends on some specific conditions. These specific conditions are called optimized codes. The analytical basics of processes in topological structures are developed in [1]. The codes are generated according to the structures in [2]. Some optimized codes are derived related to the seismicity of NAF beginning from the quakes of the year 1999. References1. Taner SENGOR, "Topological theory and analytical configuration for a universal community model," Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 81, pp. 188-194, 28 June 2013, 2. Taner SENGOR, "Seismic-Climatic-Hazardous Events Estimation Processes via the Coupling Structures in Conserving Energy Topologies of the Earth," The 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, Abstract no.: 31374, ABD.

  1. Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

    2016-06-14

    To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

  2. ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

  3. Prognostic value of the pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in cervical cancer: a meta-analysis and systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiayuan; Chen, Manyu; Liang, Caixia; Su, Wenmei

    2017-02-21

    The prognostic value of pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in cervical cancer remains controversial. We conducted a meta-analysis based on the data from 13 studies with 3729 patients to evaluate the association between the pretreatment NLR and the clinical outcomes of overall survival and progression-free survival in patients with cervical cancer. The relationship between NLR and clinicopathological parameters was also assessed. Hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was used as the effect size estimate. Our analysis indicated that elevated pretreatment NLR was a poor prognostic marker for patients with cervical cancer because it predicted unfavorable overall survival (HR = 1.375, 95% CI: 1.200-1.576) and progression-free survival (HR = 1.646, 95% CI: 1.313-2.065). Increased NLR is also significantly associated with the larger tumor size (OR = 1.780, 95% CI: 1.090-2.908), advanced clinical stage (OR = 2.443, 95% CI: 1.730-3.451), and positive lymph node metastasis (OR = 2.380, 95% CI: 1.775-3.190). By these results, high pretreatment NLR predicted a shorter survival period for patients with cervical cancer, and it could be served as a novel index of prognostic evaluation in patients with cervical cancer.

  4. Multi-Hazard Interactions in Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we combine physical and social science approaches to develop a multi-scale regional framework for natural hazard interactions in Guatemala. The identification and characterisation of natural hazard interactions is an important input for comprehensive multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction at a regional level. We use five transdisciplinary evidence sources to organise and populate our framework: (i) internationally-accessible literature; (ii) civil protection bulletins; (iii) field observations; (iv) stakeholder interviews (hazard and civil protection professionals); and (v) stakeholder workshop results. These five evidence sources are synthesised to determine an appropriate natural hazard classification scheme for Guatemala (6 hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types). For a national spatial extent (Guatemala), we construct and populate a "21×21" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 49 possible interactions between 21 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (Southern Highlands, Guatemala), we construct and populate a "33×33" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 112 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types. Evidence sources are also used to constrain anthropogenic processes that could trigger natural hazards in Guatemala, and characterise possible networks of natural hazard interactions (cascades). The outcomes of this approach are among the most comprehensive interaction frameworks for national and sub-national spatial scales in the published literature. These can be used to support disaster risk reduction and civil protection professionals in better understanding natural hazards and potential disasters at a regional scale.

  5. Tsunami Hazard Evaluation for the East Coast of Korea by using Empirical Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a tsunami hazard curve was determined for a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) induced tsunami event in Nuclear Power Plant site. A Tsunami catalogue was developed by using historical tsunami record which happen before 1900 and instrumental tsunami record after 1900. For the evaluation of return period of tsunami run-up height, power-law, uppertruncated power law and exponential function were considered for the assessment of regression curves and compared with each result. Although the total tsunami records were only 9 times at the east coast of Korea during tsunami catalogue, there was no such research like this about tsunami hazard curve evaluation and this research lay a cornerstone for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) in Korea

  6. Transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials: a summary of state and local legislative requirements for the period ending December 31, 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knox, N.P.; Goins, L.F.; Owen, P.T.

    1985-09-01

    This report summarizes 513 adopted US state and local laws that impact the transportation of radioactive materials. The report was generated from legislative information contained in the Legislative Data Base (LDB), a comprehensive interactive database developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy. The annotated citations alphabetically by state, with state and local bills listed separately and sorted by date of adoption. Each citation contains the following information: locale (geographical areas and political jurisdictions affected by the action), bill number, bill title, bill sponsor, history of bill status, comments, and abstract. Six indexes are provided to assist the reader in locating legislation of interest: locale index, bill number index, title word index (permuted), sponsor index, transport restriction index (type of transportation restriction specified, e.g., escort, notify, permit, ban), transport mode index (mode of transportation specified, e.g., truck, rail, barge), and keyword index. This report updates the information contained in Transportation of Radioactive and Hazardous Materials: A Summary of State and Local Legislative Requirements for the Period ending September 30, 1983, ORNL/TM-8860 (TTC-0485), published in June 1984

  7. Characteristics of Large Low-frequency Debris Flow Hazards and Mitigation Strategies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shige

    2005-01-01

    A low-frequency debris flow took place in the north coastal range of Venezuela on Dec. 16, 1999,and scientists all over the world paid attention to this catastrophe. Four characteristics of low-frequency debris hazard are discussed: long return period and extreme catastrophe, special rare triggering factors,difficulty in distinguishing and a series of small hazards subsequent to the catastrophe. Different measures, such as preventing, forecast - warning,engineering, can be used for mitigating and controlling the catastrophe. In engineering practice, it is a key that large silt-trap dams are used to control rare large debris flow. A kind of low dam with cheap cost can be used to replace high dam in developing countries. A planning for controlling debris flow hazard in Cerro Grande stream of Venezuela is presented at the end of this paper.

  8. Hazard management at the workplace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasfazilah Hassan; Azimawati Ahmad; Syed Asraf Fahlawi Wafa S M Ghazi; Hairul Nizam Idris

    2005-01-01

    Failure to ensure health and safety environment at workplace will cause an accident involving loss to the time, human resource, finance and for the worse case effect the moral value of an organization. If we go through to the cause of the accident, it is impossible to have a totally safety workplace. It is because every process in work activities has it own hazard elements. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the best action to prevent from the hazard with a comprehensive and effectiveness hazard management. Hazard management is the one of the pro-active hazard control. With this we manage to identify and evaluate the hazard and control the hazard risk. Therefore, hazard management should be screened constantly and continuously to make sure work hazard always in control. (Author)

  9. DOE Hazardous Waste Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyman, L.D.; Craig, R.B.

    1985-01-01

    The goal of the DOE Hazardous Waste Program is to support the implementation and improvement of hazardous-chemical and mixed-radioactive-waste management such that public health, safety, and the environment are protected and DOE missions are effectively accomplished. The strategy for accomplishing this goal is to define the character and magnitude of hazardous wastes emanating from DOE facilities, determine what DOE resources are available to address these problems, define the regulatory and operational constraints, and develop programs and plans to resolve hazardous waste issues. Over the longer term the program will support the adaptation and application of technologies to meet hazardous waste management needs and to implement an integrated, DOE-wide hazardous waste management strategy. 1 reference, 1 figure

  10. Viral infection model with periodic lytic immune response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Kaifa; Wang Wendi; Liu Xianning

    2006-01-01

    Dynamical behavior and bifurcation structure of a viral infection model are studied under the assumption that the lytic immune response is periodic in time. The infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive ratio of virus is less than or equal to one. There is a non-constant periodic solution if the basic reproductive ratio of the virus is greater than one. It is found that period doubling bifurcations occur as the amplitude of lytic component is increased. For intermediate birth rates, the period triplication occurs and then period doubling cascades proceed gradually toward chaotic cycles. For large birth rate, the period doubling cascade proceeds gradually toward chaotic cycles without the period triplication, and the inverse period doubling can be observed. These results can be used to explain the oscillation behaviors of virus population, which was observed in chronic HBV or HCV carriers

  11. H-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility Corrective Action Report, Third and Fourth Quarter 1998, Volumes I and II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chase, J.

    1999-01-01

    The groundwater in the uppermost aquifer beneath the H-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility (HWMF), also known as the H-Area Seepage Basins, at the Savannah Site (SRS) is monitored periodically for selected hazardous and radioactive constituents. This report presents the results of the required groundwater monitoring program

  12. Transverse impedance of a periodic array of cavities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Fedotov

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available We examine the transverse impedance of a periodic array of cavities in a beam pipe at high frequency. The calculation is an extension of a previous one for the longitudinal impedance of a periodic array of azimuthally symmetric pillboxes, for which only TM modes were needed. In the present case, we must include TE modes as well. In addition, we extend the applicability of the previous calculation by including an extra term in the coupling kernel so that the results are valid for all values of the ratio of the cavity length to the period of the structure (all values of the ratio of iris thickness to structure period. In spite of the presence of TE modes, we find that the high frequency limit of the transverse impedance is simply (2/ka^{2} times the corresponding limit of the longitudinal impedance, just as it is for the resistive wall impedances, a relation which occurs frequently for azimuthally symmetric structures. Finally, we present numerical results as well as approximate expressions for the impedance per period, valid for all ratios of cavity length to structure period.

  13. Maintaining high precision of isotope ratio analysis over extended periods of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Willi A

    2009-06-01

    Stable isotope ratios are reliable and long lasting process tracers. In order to compare data from different locations or different sampling times at a high level of precision, a measurement strategy must include reliable traceability to an international stable isotope scale via a reference material (RM). Since these international RMs are available in low quantities only, we have developed our own analysis schemes involving laboratory working RM. In addition, quality assurance RMs are used to control the long-term performance of the delta-value assignments. The analysis schemes allow the construction of quality assurance performance charts over years of operation. In this contribution, the performance of three typical techniques established in IsoLab at the MPI-BGC in Jena is discussed. The techniques are (1) isotope ratio mass spectrometry with an elemental analyser for delta(15)N and delta(13)C analysis of bulk (organic) material, (2) high precision delta(13)C and delta(18)O analysis of CO(2) in clean-air samples, and (3) stable isotope analysis of water samples using a high-temperature reaction with carbon. In addition, reference strategies on a laser ablation system for high spatial resolution delta(13)C analysis in tree rings is exemplified briefly.

  14. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  15. Natural hazards science strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2012-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

  16. Predictive value of serum apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I ratio in metabolic syndrome risk: a Chinese cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Yu-Ching; Kuan, Jen-Chun; Bai, Chyi-Huey; Yang, Tsan; Chou, Wan-Yun; Hsieh, Po-Chien; You, San-Lin; Hwang, Lee-Ching; Chen, Chien-Hua; Wei, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Chien-An

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (apoB/apoA-I) ratio is a promising risk predictor of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine the optimal cut-off value of this ratio in detecting subjects with MetS in a Chinese population. A prospective study was conducted using a representative sample of non-institutionized people in Taiwan. A total of 3,343 participants with mean age (±SD) of 39.86 (±15.61) years old were followed up from 2002 to 2007. The primary outcome was the incidence of MetS. The MetS was defined according to a unified criterion established by several major organizations. There were 462 cases of incident MetS during a mean follow-up period of 5.26 years. A significantly stepwise increase in the incidence of MetS across quartiles of the apoB/apoA-I ratio was noted in both sexes after adjustment for potential confounders (p for trend risk of MetS in both men [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 6.29, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 2.79-9.13] and women (adjusted HR = 3.82, 95 % CI = 1.06-6.63). Comparisons of receiver operating characteristics curves indicated that the predictive ability of apoB/apoA-I ratio to detect MetS was better than conventional lipid ratio measurements. Furthermore, the optimal cut-off value of apoB/apoA-I ratio for MetS diagnosis was 0.71 in men and 0.56 in women. These results suggest that an elevated apoB/apoA-I ratio might constitute a potentially crucial measure linked to the risk of developing MetS.

  17. Radiation hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rausch, L.

    1979-01-01

    On a scientific basis and with the aid of realistic examples, the author gives a popular introduction to an understanding and judgment of the public discussion over radiation hazards: Uses and hazards of X-ray examinations, biological radiation effects, civilisation risks in comparison, origins and explanation of radiation protection regulations. (orig.) [de

  18. Hazard screening application guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The basic purpose of hazard screening is to group precesses, facilities, and proposed modifications according to the magnitude of their hazards so as to determine the need for and extent of follow on safety analysis. A hazard is defined as a material, energy source, or operation that has the potential to cause injury or illness in human beings. The purpose of this document is to give guidance and provide standard methods for performing hazard screening. Hazard screening is applied to new and existing facilities and processes as well as to proposed modifications to existing facilities and processes. The hazard screening process evaluates an identified hazards in terms of the effects on people, both on-site and off-site. The process uses bounding analyses with no credit given for mitigation of an accident with the exception of certain containers meeting DOT specifications. The process is restricted to human safety issues only. Environmental effects are addressed by the environmental program. Interfaces with environmental organizations will be established in order to share information

  19. Software safety hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, J.D.

    1996-02-01

    Techniques for analyzing the safety and reliability of analog-based electronic protection systems that serve to mitigate hazards in process control systems have been developed over many years, and are reasonably well understood. An example is the protection system in a nuclear power plant. The extension of these techniques to systems which include digital computers is not well developed, and there is little consensus among software engineering experts and safety experts on how to analyze such systems. One possible technique is to extend hazard analysis to include digital computer-based systems. Software is frequently overlooked during system hazard analyses, but this is unacceptable when the software is in control of a potentially hazardous operation. In such cases, hazard analysis should be extended to fully cover the software. A method for performing software hazard analysis is proposed in this paper

  20. Association Between Cortisol to DHEA-s Ratio and Sickness Absence in Japanese Male Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirokawa, Kumi; Fujii, Yasuhito; Taniguchi, Toshiyo; Takaki, Jiro; Tsutsumi, Akizumi

    2017-11-21

    This study aimed to investigate the association between serum levels of cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-s) and sickness absence over 2 years in Japanese male workers. A baseline survey including questions about health behavior, along with blood sampling for cortisol and DHEA-s, was conducted in 2009. In total, 429 men (mean ± SD age, 52.9 ± 8.6 years) from whom blood samples were collected at baseline were followed until December 31, 2011. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for sickness absence were calculated using a Cox proportional hazard model, adjusted for potential confounders. Among 35 workers who took sickness absences, 31 had physical illness. A high cortisol to DHEA-s ratio increased the risk of sickness absence (crude HR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.12-6.41; adjusted HR = 3.33, 95% CI 1.35-8.20). The cortisol to DHEA-s ratio was linearly associated with an increased risk of sickness absence (p for trend sickness absences. This trend did not change when limited to absences resulting from physical illness. Hormonal conditions related to the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and adrenal function should be considered when predicting sickness absence. The cortisol to DHEA-s ratio may be more informative than single effects of cortisol and DHEA-s levels.

  1. Hazard assessment of inorganics to three endangered fish in the Green River, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, S.J.

    1995-01-01

    Acute toxicity tests were conducted with three life stages of Colorado squawfish (Ptychocheilus lucius), razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus), and bonytail (Gila elegans) in a reconstituted water quality simulating the middle part of the Green River of Utah. Tests were conducted with boron, lithium, selenate, selenite, uranium, vanadium, and zinc. The overall rank order of toxicity to all species and life stages combined from most to least toxic was vanadium = zinc > selenite > lithium = uranium > selenate > boron. There was no difference between the three species in their sensitivity to the seven inorganics based on a rank-order evaluation at the species level. Colorado squawfish were 2-5 times more sensitive to selenate and selenite at the swimup life stage than older stages, whereas razorback suckers displayed equal sensitivity among life stages. Bonytail exhibited equal sensitivity to selenite, but were five times more sensitive to selenate at the swimup life stage than the older stages. Comparison of 96-hr LC50 values with a limited number of environmental water concentrations in Ashley Creek, Utah, which receives irrigation drainwater, revealed moderate hazard ratios for boron, selenate, selenite, and zinc, low hazard ratios for uranium and vanadium, but unknown ratios for lithium. These inorganic contaminants in drainwaters may adversely affect endangered fish in the Green River.

  2. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  3. Indoor spread of respiratory infection by recirculation of air: a controllable hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riley, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    The overall health benefit to be derived from disinfecting air before recirculation is difficult to predict, but as more and more buildings recirculate air without disinfection, the problem of spreading infection increases. Since the cost of disinfection with uv radiation is small and the cost of morbidity from airborne infections immense, the cost-benefit ratio for disinfecting recirculated air may be attractive, even though the protection of occupants would be limited. Recirculation of air in buildings is a relatively new technology that conserves energy. Like most new technologies, it brings new hazards. Disinfection of recirculated air is an appropriate additional technique with which to counter some of the hazards of air recirculation

  4. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  5. Job Hazard Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    .... Establishing proper job procedures is one of the benefits of conducting a job hazard analysis carefully studying and recording each step of a job, identifying existing or potential job hazards...

  6. Hazard and consequence analysis for waste emplacement at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstner, D.M.; Clayton, S.G.; Farrell, R.F.; McCormick, J.A.; Ortiz, C.; Standiford, D.L.

    1996-01-01

    The Carlsbad Area Office established and analyzed the safety bases for the design and operations as documented in the WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR). Additional independent efforts are currently underway to assess the hazards associated with the long-term (10,000 year) isolation period as required by 40 CFR 191. The structure of the WIPP SAR is unique due to the hazards involved, and the agreement between the State of New Mexico and the DOE regarding SAR content and format. However, the hazards and accident analysis philosophy as contained in DOE-STD-3009-94 was followed as closely as possible, while adhering to state agreements. Hazards associated with WIPP waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal operations were systematically identified using a modified Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) technique. The WIPP HAZOP assessed the potential internal, external, and natural phenomena events that can cause the identified hazards to develop into accidents. The hazard assessment identified deviations from the intended design and operation of the waste handling system, analyzed potential accident consequences to the public and workers, estimated likelihood of occurrence, and evaluated associated preventative and mitigative features. It was concluded from the assessment that the proposed WIPP waste emplacement operations and design are sufficient to ensure safety of the public, workers, and environment, over the 35 year disposal phase

  7. Introduction: Hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Rex L.; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Lee, Saro; Trofymchuk, Oleksandr M

    2014-01-01

    Twenty papers were accepted into the session on landslide hazard mapping for oral presentation. The papers presented susceptibility and hazard analysis based on approaches ranging from field-based assessments to statistically based models to assessments that combined hydromechanical and probabilistic components. Many of the studies have taken advantage of increasing availability of remotely sensed data and nearly all relied on Geographic Information Systems to organize and analyze spatial data. The studies used a range of methods for assessing performance and validating hazard and susceptibility models. A few of the studies presented in this session also included some element of landslide risk assessment. This collection of papers clearly demonstrates that a wide range of approaches can lead to useful assessments of landslide susceptibility and hazard.

  8. Hazardous waste incinerators under waste uncertainty: balancing and throughput maximization via heat recuperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiliyannis, Christos Aristeides

    2013-09-01

    Hazardous waste incinerators (HWIs) differ substantially from thermal power facilities, since instead of maximizing energy production with the minimum amount of fuel, they aim at maximizing throughput. Variations in quantity or composition of received waste loads may significantly diminish HWI throughput (the decisive profit factor), from its nominal design value. A novel formulation of combustion balance is presented, based on linear operators, which isolates the wastefeed vector from the invariant combustion stoichiometry kernel. Explicit expressions for the throughput are obtained, in terms of incinerator temperature, fluegas heat recuperation ratio and design parameters, for an arbitrary number of wastes, based on fundamental principles (mass and enthalpy balances). The impact of waste variations, of recuperation ratio and of furnace temperature is explicitly determined. It is shown that in the presence of waste uncertainty, the throughput may be a decreasing or increasing function of incinerator temperature and recuperation ratio, depending on the sign of a dimensionless parameter related only to the uncertain wastes. The dimensionless parameter is proposed as a sharp a' priori waste 'fingerprint', determining the necessary increase or decrease of manipulated variables (recuperation ratio, excess air, auxiliary fuel feed rate, auxiliary air flow) in order to balance the HWI and maximize throughput under uncertainty in received wastes. A 10-step procedure is proposed for direct application subject to process capacity constraints. The results may be useful for efficient HWI operation and for preparing hazardous waste blends. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Earth reencounter probabilities for aborted space disposal of hazardous nuclear waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, A. L.; Feingold, H.

    1977-01-01

    A quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.

  10. Near-Earth object hazardous impact: A Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Lozano, J M; Fernández-Martínez, M

    2016-11-16

    The impact of a near-Earth object (NEO) may release large amounts of energy and cause serious damage. Several NEO hazard studies conducted over the past few years provide forecasts, impact probabilities and assessment ratings, such as the Torino and Palermo scales. These high-risk NEO assessments involve several criteria, including impact energy, mass, and absolute magnitude. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to classify hazardous NEOs. Our approach applies a combination of two methods from a widely utilized decision making theory. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology is employed to determine the criteria weights, which influence the decision making, and the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to obtain a ranking of alternatives (potentially hazardous NEOs). In addition, NEO datasets provided by the NASA Near-Earth Object Program are utilized. This approach allows the classification of NEOs by descending order of their TOPSIS ratio, a single quantity that contains all of the relevant information for each object.

  11. Barrow hazards survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-06-01

    Following a series of public meetings at which PERG presented the results of a literature review and site specific accident study of the hazards of the maritime transport of spent nuclear reactor fuel to Barrow (en route to the Windscale reprocessing works), PERG was requested by the Planning Committee of Barrow Town Council to prepare an assessment of the interaction of the hazards arising from the concentration of nuclear activities in the area with those of a proposed gas-terminal. This report presents a preliminary review of the Environmental Impact Assessments prepared by the Borough Surveyor and a critical appraisal of the hazard analyses undertaken by the Health and Safety Executive, and the consultants to Cumbria County Council on this matter, the Safety and Reliability Directorate of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority. After a general and historical introduction, the document continues under the following headings: a description of the hazards (BNFL spent fuel shipments; the gas terminal; gas condensate storage; the Vickers shipyard (involving nuclear powered submarines)); the interaction of hazards; planning implications and democratic decisions; recommendations. (U.K.)

  12. Toxic and fire hazard of flooring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Illarionova L. V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available polymer materials have become widespread in the modern construction industry due to their cheapness and variety. With regard to their popularity at the present time there can appear the issues of their toxic and fire danger. The work has studied the samples of two floor synthetic building materials. The results of the determination of the fire hazard indicators of materials (combustibility, flammability, smoke ratio showed their compliance with the current certificates. The authors have studied the properties of gaseous combustion products of samples by the method of thermal analysis and FTIR analysis. The results of chloride ions analysis according the formula of Maxwell-Mohr in thermolysis products indicate the toxicity of the materials studied.

  13. THE EFFECT OF A TWISTED MAGNETIC FIELD ON THE PERIOD RATIO P{sub 1}/P{sub 2} OF NONAXISYMMETRIC MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karami, K. [Department of Physics, University of Kurdistan, Pasdaran Street, Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Bahari, K., E-mail: KKarami@uok.ac.ir, E-mail: K.Bahari@razi.ac.ir [Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Razi University, Kermanshah (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-10-01

    We consider nonaxisymmetric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes in a zero-beta cylindrical compressible thin magnetic flux tube modeled as a twisted core surrounded by a magnetically twisted annulus, with both embedded in a straight ambient external field. The dispersion relation is derived and solved analytically and numerically to obtain the frequencies of the nonaxisymmetric MHD waves. The main result is that the twisted magnetic annulus does affect the period ratio P{sub 1}/P{sub 2} of the kink modes. For the kink modes, the magnetic twist in the annulus region can achieve deviations from P{sub 1}/P{sub 2} = 2 of the same order of magnitude as in the observations. Furthermore, the effect of the internal twist on the fluting modes is investigated.

  14. Crustal structure and Seismic Hazard studies in Nigeria from ambient noise and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiri, U. A.

    2016-12-01

    The crust, upper Mantle and seismic hazard studies have been carried out in Nigeria using noise and earthquake data. The data were acquired from stations in Nigeria and international Agencies. Firstly, known depths of sediments in the Lower Benue Trough (LBT) were collected from wells; Resonance frequency (Fo) and average shear-wave velocities (Vs) were then computed using Matlab. Secondly, average velocities were estimated from noise cross-correlation along seismic stations. Thirdly, the moho depths beneath Ife, Kaduna and Nsukka stations were estimated, as well as Vp/Vs ratio using 2009 earthquake with epicenter in Nigeria. Finally, Statistical and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) were used to compute seismic hazard parameters in Nigeria and its surroundings. The results showed that, soils on the LBT with average shear wave velocity of about 5684m/s would experience more amplification in case of an earthquake, compared to the basement complex in Nigeria. The Vs beneath the seismic stations in Nigeria were also estimated as 288m/s, 1019m/s, 940.6m/s and 255.02m/s in Ife, Nsukka, Awka, and Abakaliki respectively. The average velocity along the station paths was 4.5km/secs, and the Vp, Vs for depths 100-500km profile in parts of South West Nigeria increased from about 5.83-6.42Km/sec and 3.48-6.31km/s respectively with Vp/Vs ratio decreasing from 1.68 to 1.02. Statistical analysis revealed a trend of increasing earthquake occurrence along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and tending to West African region. The analysis of PSHA shows the likelihood of earthquakes with different magnitudes occurring in Nigeria and other parts West Africa in future. This work is aimed at addressing critical issues regarding sites effect characterization, improved earthquake location and robust seismic hazards assessment for planning in the choice of sites for critical facilities in Nigeria. Keywords: Sediment thickness, Resonance Frequency, Average Velocity, Seismic Hazard, Nigeria

  15. Preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio represents a superior predictor compared with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios for colorectal liver-only metastases survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng JH

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Jianhong Peng,1,* Hui Li,2,* Qingjian Ou,1,* Junzhong Lin,1 Xiaojun Wu,1 Zhenhai Lu,1 Yunfei Yuan,1 Desen Wan,1 Yujing Fang,1 Zhizhong Pan1 1Department of Colorectal Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Systemic inflammation was recognized as an essential factor contributing to the development of malignancies. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR in patients with colorectal liver-only metastases (CLOM undergoing hepatectomy. We retrospectively enrolled 150 consecutive patients with CLOM between 2000 and 2012. The optimal cutoff values of continuous LMR, NLR, and PLR were determined using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Recurrence-free survival (RFS and overall survival (OS related to the LMR, NLR, and PLR were analyzed using both Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression methods. Elevated LMR (≥2.82 and lower NLR (<4.63 were significantly associated with better RFS and OS in patients with CLOM after hepatectomy, instead of lower PLR (<150.17. Multivariate Cox analysis identified elevated LMR as the only independent inflammatory factor for better RFS (hazard ratio, 0.591; 95% CI, 0.32–0.844; P=0.008 and OS (hazard ratio, 0.426; 95% CI, 0.254–0.716; P=0.001. In the subgroup analysis, elevated LMR was a significant favorable factor in both 5-year RFS and OS of patients with male gender, lymph node metastases, colon cancer, liver tumor with the largest diameter <5 cm, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level <200 ng/mL, negative hepatitis B virus infection, non

  16. 76 FR 4823 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identifying and Listing Hazardous Waste Exclusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-27

    ... Waste Management System; Identifying and Listing Hazardous Waste Exclusion AGENCY: Environmental... hazardous wastes. The Agency has decided to grant the petition based on an evaluation of waste-specific... excludes the petitioned waste from the requirements of hazardous waste regulations under the Resource...

  17. Structural comparison of hazardous and non-hazardous coals based on gas sorption experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakatos, J.; Toth, J. [Research Lab. for Mining Chemistry, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Miskolc-Egyetemvaros (Hungary); Radnai-Gyoengyoes, Z. [Geopard Ltd., Pecs (Hungary); Bokanyi, L. [Miskolc Univ., Miskolc-Egyetemvaros (Hungary). Dept. of Process Engineering

    1997-12-31

    Comparison of carbon-dioxide and propane sorption at ambient temperature was used for characterising the difference of the structure of hazardous and non hazardous coals. However, hazardous coals were found more microporous or contain more closed pores than non hazardous ones, this difference couldn`t have been enlarged and attributed to one petrographic component by producing the density fractions. Gas sorption isobars (nitrogen, methane, ethane) are proposed to make a distinction between fine pore structure of coals. (orig.)

  18. Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the

  19. A systematic assessment of the state of hazardous waste clean-up technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, M.T.; Reed, B.E.; Gabr, M.

    1993-07-01

    West Virginia University (WVU) and the US DOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) entered into a Cooperative Agreement on August 29, 1992 entitled ''Decontamination Systems Information and Research Programs.'' Stipulated within the Agreement is the requirement that WVU submit to METC a series of Technical Progress Report for Year 1 of the Agreement. This report reflects the progress and/or efforts performed on the following nine technical projects encompassed by the Year 1 Agreement for the period of April 1 through June 30, 1993: Systematic assessment of the state of hazardous waste clean-up technologies; site remediation technologies -- drain-enhanced soil flushing (DESF) for organic contaminants removal; site remediation technologies -- in situ bioremediation of organic contaminants; excavation systems for hazardous waste sites; chemical destruction of polychlorinated biphenyls; development of organic sensors -- monolayer and multilayer self-assembled films for chemical sensors; Winfield lock and dam remediation; Assessments of Technologies for hazardous waste site remediation -- non-treatment technologies and pilot scale test facility implementation; and remediation of hazardous sites with stream reforming

  20. Phreatic eruptions at Ruapehu: Occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strehlow, Karen; Sandri, Laura; Gottsmann, Jo; Kilgour, Geoff; Rust, Alison; Tonini, Roberto

    2017-04-01

    Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to human life in crater proximity, are often underestimated or neglected, and have been comparatively understudied with respect to magmatic events. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (North Island of New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at an active crater lake volcano. We first carried out a completeness analysis of this catalog; then, we performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Rather, they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. The average probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, as inferred from the complete part of the catalog studied. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. The combination of numerical simulations of ejected clasts' trajectory with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) has allowed performing a full probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lake shore, where there is a mountain refuge. Epistemic uncertainty associated to the resulting hazard maps is also quantified. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.

  1. Informing Workers of Chemical Hazards: The OSHA Hazard Communication Standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    American Chemical Society, Washington, DC.

    Practical information on how to implement a chemical-related safety program is outlined in this publication. Highlights of the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administrations (OSHA) Hazard Communication Standard are presented and explained. These include: (1) hazard communication requirements (consisting of warning labels, material safety…

  2. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods.

  3. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods

  4. Transport of hazardous goods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The course 'Transport of hazardous goods' was held in Berlin in November 1988 in cooperation with the Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung. From all lecturs, two are recorded separately: 'Safety of tank trucks - requirements on the tank, development possibiities of active and passive safety' and 'Requirements on the transport of radioactive materials - possible derivations for other hazardous goods'. The other lectures deal with hazardous goods law, requirements on packinging, risk assessment, railroad transport, hazardous goods road network, insurance matters, EC regulations, and waste tourism. (HSCH) [de

  5. Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

  6. Landslide hazard assessment in the Collazzone area, Umbria, Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Guzzetti

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the results of the application of a recently proposed model to determine landslide hazard. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be in a given area. For the Collazzone area, in the central Italian Apennines, we prepared a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1941 and 1997 and field surveys conducted in the period between 1998 and 2004. We then partitioned the 79 square kilometres study area into 894 slope units, and obtained the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphology, lithology, structure and land use. For each slope unit, we computed the expected landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the terrain unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming landslide recurrence was constant, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determined the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each slope unit, for different periods. We obtained the probability of landslide size, a proxy for landslide magnitude, by analysing the frequency-area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Lastly, assuming independence, we determined landslide hazard for each slope unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence, and of landslide spatial occurrence.

  7. 76 FR 55846 - Hazardous Waste Management System: Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste: Carbon Dioxide...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-09

    ... carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) streams that are hazardous from the definition of hazardous waste, provided these... management under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to conditionally exclude carbon dioxide... 2050-AG60 Hazardous Waste Management System: Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste: Carbon...

  8. Temporal Changes in Community Resilience to Drought Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihunov, V.

    2017-12-01

    The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.

  9. Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Wood, Nathan J.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

    2014-01-01

    Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

  10. HAZARD ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, S; Tinh Tran, T.

    2008-01-01

    Washington Safety Management Solutions, LLC developed web-based software to improve the efficiency and consistency of hazard identification and analysis, control selection and classification, and to standardize analysis reporting at Savannah River Site. In the new nuclear age, information technology provides methods to improve the efficiency of the documented safety analysis development process which includes hazard analysis activities. This software provides a web interface that interacts with a relational database to support analysis, record data, and to ensure reporting consistency. A team of subject matter experts participated in a series of meetings to review the associated processes and procedures for requirements and standard practices. Through these meetings, a set of software requirements were developed and compiled into a requirements traceability matrix from which software could be developed. The software was tested to ensure compliance with the requirements. Training was provided to the hazard analysis leads. Hazard analysis teams using the software have verified its operability. The software has been classified as NQA-1, Level D, as it supports the analysis team but does not perform the analysis. The software can be transported to other sites with alternate risk schemes. The software is being used to support the development of 14 hazard analyses. User responses have been positive with a number of suggestions for improvement which are being incorporated as time permits. The software has enforced a uniform implementation of the site procedures. The software has significantly improved the efficiency and standardization of the hazard analysis process

  11. Landslide hazard in Bukavu (DR Congo): a geomorphological assessment in a data-poor context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewitte, Olivier; Mugaruka Bibentyo, Toussaint; Kulimushi Matabaro, Sylvain; Balegamire, Clarisse; Basimike, Joseph; Delvaux, Damien; Dille, Antoine; Ganza Bamulezi, Gloire; Jacobs, Liesbet; Michellier, Caroline; Monsieurs, Elise; Mugisho Birhenjira, Espoir; Nshokano, Jean-Robert; Nzolang, Charles; Kervyn, François

    2017-04-01

    Many cities in the Global South are known for facing an important increase in their population size. Many of them are then struggling with the sprawl of new settlements and very often urban planning and sustainable management policies are limited, if not non-existent. When those cities are set in landslide-prone environments, this situation is even more problematic. Despite these environmental constrains, landslide hazard assessments relevant for landscape planning remain rare. The objective of this research is to assess the landslide hazard in Bukavu, a city in DR Congo that is facing such a situation. We used a geomorphological approach (adapted from Cardinali et al., 2002) taking into account the data-poor context and the impact of anthropogenic activities. First, we built a multi-temporal historical inventory for a period of 60 years. A total of 151 landslides were mapped (largest landslide 1.5 km2). Their cumulative areas cover 29% of the urban territory and several types of processes are identified. Changes in the distribution and pattern of landslides allowed then to infer the possible evolution of the slopes, the most probable type of failures, and their expected frequency of occurrence and intensity. Despite this comprehensive inventory, hazard linked to the occurrence of new large deep-seated slides cannot be assessed due a scarcity of reliable data on the environmental factors controlling their occurrence. In addition, age estimation of the occurrence of some of the largest landslides refers to periods at the beginning of the Holocene where climatic and seismic conditions were probably different. Therefore, based on the inventory, we propose four hazard scenarios that coincide with today's environment. Hazard assessment was done for (1) reactivation of deep-seated slides, (2) occurrence of new small shallow slides, (3) rock falls, and (4) movements within existing landslides. Based on these assessments, we produced four hazard maps that indicate the

  12. A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

    2013-09-01

    A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

  13. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.

  14. Technical Guidance for Hazardous Analysis, Emergency Planning for Extremely Hazardous Substances

    Science.gov (United States)

    This current guide supplements NRT-1 by providing technical assistance to LEPCs to assess the lethal hazards related to potential airborne releases of extremely hazardous substances (EHSs) as designated under Section 302 of Title Ill of SARA.

  15. Management of Hazardous Waste in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widyatmoko, H.

    2018-01-01

    Indonesia needs to build four Treatment Centrals for 229,907 tons per year produced hazardous waste. But almost all hazardous waste treatment is managed by just one company at present, namely PT. PPLI (Prasada Pamunah Limbah Industri). This research is based on collected data which identifies payback period of 0.69 years and rate of return 85 %. PT PPLI is located within the Cileungsi District of the Bogor Regency of West Java Province. Records from nearest rainfall station at Cibinong indicate that annual average rainfall for the site is about 3,600 mm. It is situated on hilly terrain and is characterized by steep slopes as well as has a very complex geological structure. The Tertiary sequence was folded to form an assymetric anticline with axis trend in an East-West direction. Three major faults cut the middle of the site in a North-South direction with a vertical displacement of about 1.5 meters and a zone width of 1 meter. The high concentration of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) 2500 ppm in Secondary Leachate Collection System (SLCS) indicate a possible failure of the Primary Leachate Clection System (PLCS), which need correct action to prevent groundwater contamination.

  16. Tumor-stroma ratio(TSR) as a potential novel predictor of prognosis in digestive system cancers: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Runjin; Song, Wei; Wang, Kai; Zou, Shubing

    2017-09-01

    The tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) has been reported as a prognosis predictor in multiple cancers. The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the potential value of TSR as a prognostic predictor of cancer in the digestive system. We searched PubMed, Embase, Elsevier and Web of Science. All studies exploring the association of TSR with overall survival (OS) or disease-free survival (DFS), and lymph node metastasis (LNM) were identified. In total, eight studies were eligible for analysis, and they included 1959 patients. Meta-analysis showed that the low TSR in the tumor could predict poor overall survival (OS) in multiple cancers (pooled Hazard Ratio [HR]: 2.15, 95%CI: 1.80-2.57, P<0.00001, fixed effects). For disease-free survival (DFS), low TSR was also a significant predictor (pooled Hazard Ratio [HR]: 2.31, 95%CI: 1.88-2.83, P<0.00001, fixed effects). In addition, low TSR was correlated with tumor stage. The tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) may potentially serve as a poor prognostic predictor for the metastasis and prognosis of cancer. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. The Coastal Hazard Wheel system for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the complete Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) system, developed for multi-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management of coastal areas worldwide under a changing climate. The system is designed as a low-tech tool that can be used in areas with limited data availability...... screening and management. The system is developed to assess the main coastal hazards in a single process and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system was initially presented in 2012 and based on a range of test......-applications and feedback from coastal experts, the system has been further refined and developed into a complete hazard management tool. This paper therefore covers the coastal classification system used by the CHW, a standardized assessment procedure for implementation of multi-hazard-assessments, technical guidance...

  18. Disposal of hazardous wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnhart, B.J.

    1978-01-01

    The Fifth Life Sciences Symposium entitled Hazardous Solid Wastes and Their Disposal on October 12 through 14, 1977 was summarized. The topic was the passage of the National Resources Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 will force some type of action on all hazardous solid wastes. Some major points covered were: the formulation of a definition of a hazardous solid waste, assessment of long-term risk, list of specific materials or general criteria to specify the wastes of concern, Bioethics, sources of hazardous waste, industrial and agricultural wastes, coal wastes, radioactive wastes, and disposal of wastes

  19. Cause-specific mortality according to urine albumin creatinine ratio in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaaby, Tea; Husemoen, Lise Lotte Nystrup; Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh; Rossing, Peter; Jørgensen, Torben; Thuesen, Betina Heinsbæk; Pisinger, Charlotta; Rasmussen, Knud; Linneberg, Allan

    2014-01-01

    Urine albumin creatinine ratio, UACR, is positively associated with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and diabetes in observational studies. Whether a high UACR is also associated with other causes of death is unclear. We investigated the association between UACR and cause-specific mortality. We included a total of 9,125 individuals from two population-based studies, Monica10 and Inter99, conducted in 1993-94 and 1999-2001, respectively. Urine albumin creatinine ratio was measured from spot urine samples by standard methods. Information on causes of death was obtained from The Danish Register of Causes of Death until 31 December 2010. There were a total of 920 deaths, and the median follow-up was 11.3 years. Multivariable Cox regression analyses with age as underlying time axis showed statistically significant positive associations between UACR status and risk of all-cause mortality, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the circulatory system, and diseases of the respiratory system with hazard ratios 1.56, 6.98, 2.34, 2.03, and 1.91, for the fourth UACR compared with the first, respectively. Using UACR as a continuous variable, we also found a statistically significant positive association with risk of death caused by diseases of the digestive system with a hazard ratio of 1.02 per 10 mg/g higher UACR. We found statistically significant positive associations between baseline UACR and death from all-cause mortality, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, and diseases of the circulatory system and possibly mental and behavioural disorders, and diseases of the respiratory and digestive system.

  20. Offsite transportation hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnside, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the emergency preparedness Hazards Assessment for the offsite transportation of hazardous material from the Hanford Site. The assessment is required by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 151.1. Offsite transportation accidents are categorized using the DOE system to assist communication within the DOE and assure that appropriate assistance is provided to the people in charge at the scene. The assistance will initially include information about the load and the potential hazards. Local authorities will use the information to protect the public following a transportation accident. This Hazards Assessment will focus on the material being transported from the Hanford Site. Shipments coming to Hanford are the responsibility of the shipper and the carrier and, therefore, are not included in this Hazards Assessment, unless the DOE elects to be the shipper of record

  1. Radiological hazards of alpha-contaminated waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodgers, J.C.

    1982-01-01

    The radiological hazards of alpha-contaminated wastes are discussed in this overview in terms of two components of hazard: radiobiological hazard, and radioecological hazard. Radiobiological hazard refers to human uptake of alpha-emitters by inhalation and ingestion, and the resultant dose to critical organs of the body. Radioecological hazard refers to the processes of release from buried wastes, transport in the environment, and translocation to man through the food chain. Besides detailing the sources and magnitude of hazards, this brief review identifies the uncertainties in their estimation, and implications for the regulatory process

  2. Hazards from aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grund, J.E.; Hornyik, K.

    1975-01-01

    The siting of nuclear power plants has created innumerable environmental concerns. Among the effects of the ''man-made environment'' one of increasing importance in recent nuclear plant siting hazards analysis has been the concern about aircraft hazards to the nuclear plant. These hazards are of concern because of the possibility that an aircraft may have a malfunction and crash either near the plant or directly into it. Such a crash could be postulated to result, because of missile and/or fire effects, in radioactive releases which would endanger the public health and safety. The majority of studies related to hazards from air traffic have been concerned with the determination of the probability associated with an aircraft striking vulnerable portions of a given plant. Other studies have focused on the structural response to such a strike. This work focuses on the problem of strike probability. 13 references

  3. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

  4. Household hazardous waste data for the UK by direct sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slack, Rebecca J; Bonin, Michael; Gronow, Jan R; Van Santen, Anton; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2007-04-01

    The amount of household hazardous waste (HHW) disposed of in the United Kingdom (UK) requires assessment. This paper describes a direct analysis study carried out in three areas in southeast England involving over 500 households. Each participating householder was provided with a special bin in which to place items corresponding to a list of HHW. The amount of waste collected was split into nine broad categories: batteries, home maintenance (DIY), vehicle upkeep, pesticides, pet care, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, household cleaners, and printer cartridges. Over 1 T of waste was collected from the sample households over a 32-week period, which would correspond to an estimated 51,000 T if extrapolated to the UK population for the same period or over 7,000 T per month. Details of likely disposal routes adopted by householders were also sought, demonstrating the different pathways selected for different waste categories. Co-disposal with residual household waste dominated for waste batteries and veterinary medicines, hence avoiding classification as hazardous waste under new UK waste regulations. The information can be used to set a baseline for the management of HHW and provides information for an environmental risk assessment of the disposal of such wastes to landfill.

  5. Summit CO2 emission rates by the CO2/SO2 ratio method at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, during a period of sustained inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, S.A.; Gerlach, T.M.; Wallace, P.J.

    2008-01-01

    The emission rate of carbon dioxide escaping from the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, proved highly variable, averaging 4900 ± 2000 metric tons per day (t/d) in June–July 2003 during a period of summit inflation. These results were obtained by combining over 90 measurements of COSPEC-derived SO2emission rates with synchronous CO2/SO2 ratios of the volcanic gas plume along the summit COSPEC traverse. The results are lower than the CO2 emission rate of 8500 ± 300 t/d measured by the same method in 1995–1999 during a period of long-term summit deflation [Gerlach, T.M., McGee, K.A., Elias, T., Sutton, A.J. and Doukas, M.P., 2002. Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kīlauea Volcano: Implications for primary magma and the summit reservoir. Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 107(B9): art. no.-2189.]. Analysis of the data indicates that the emission rates of the present study likely reflect changes in the magma supply rate and residence time in the summit reservoir. It is also likely that emission rates during the inflation period were heavily influenced by SO2 pulses emitted adjacent to the COSPEC traverse, which biased CO2/SO2 ratios towards low values that may be unrepresentative of the global summit gas plume. We conclude that the SO2 pulses are consequences of summit re-inflation under way since 2003 and that CO2 emission rates remain comparable to, but more variable than, those measured prior to re-inflation.

  6. Exploring the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception via real-time hazard identification, hazard classification, and rating tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowsky, Avinoam; Oron-Gilad, Tal

    2013-10-01

    This study investigated the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception skills. These topics have previously been investigated separately, yet a novel approach is suggested where hazard awareness and risk perception are examined concurrently. Young, newly qualified drivers, experienced drivers, and a group of commercial drivers, namely, taxi drivers performed three consecutive tasks: (1) observed 10 short movies of real-world driving situations and were asked to press a button each time they identified a hazardous situation; (2) observed one of three possible sub-sets of 8 movies (out of the 10 they have seen earlier) for the second time, and were asked to categorize them into an arbitrary number of clusters according to the similarity in their hazardous situation; and (3) observed the same sub-set for a third time and following each movie were asked to rate its level of hazardousness. The first task is considered a real-time identification task while the other two are performed using hindsight. During it participants' eye movements were recorded. Results showed that taxi drivers were more sensitive to hidden hazards than the other driver groups and that young-novices were the least sensitive. Young-novice drivers also relied heavily on materialized hazards in their categorization structure. In addition, it emerged that risk perception was derived from two major components: the likelihood of a crash and the severity of its outcome. Yet, the outcome was rarely considered under time pressure (i.e., in real-time hazard identification tasks). Using hindsight, when drivers were provided with the opportunity to rate the movies' hazardousness more freely (rating task) they considered both components. Otherwise, in the categorization task, they usually chose the severity of the crash outcome as their dominant criterion. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Property-close source separation of hazardous waste and waste electrical and electronic equipment - A Swedish case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstad, Anna; Cour Jansen, Jes la; Aspegren, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Through an agreement with EEE producers, Swedish municipalities are responsible for collection of hazardous waste and waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). In most Swedish municipalities, collection of these waste fractions is concentrated to waste recycling centres where households can source-separate and deposit hazardous waste and WEEE free of charge. However, the centres are often located on the outskirts of city centres and cars are needed in order to use the facilities in most cases. A full-scale experiment was performed in a residential area in southern Sweden to evaluate effects of a system for property-close source separation of hazardous waste and WEEE. After the system was introduced, results show a clear reduction in the amount of hazardous waste and WEEE disposed of incorrectly amongst residual waste or dry recyclables. The systems resulted in a source separation ratio of 70 wt% for hazardous waste and 76 wt% in the case of WEEE. Results show that households in the study area were willing to increase source separation of hazardous waste and WEEE when accessibility was improved and that this and similar collection systems can play an important role in building up increasingly sustainable solid waste management systems.

  8. Driver Vigilance in Automated Vehicles: Hazard Detection Failures Are a Matter of Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenlee, Eric T; DeLucia, Patricia R; Newton, David C

    2018-03-01

    The primary aim of the current study was to determine whether monitoring the roadway for hazards during automated driving results in a vigilance decrement. Although automated vehicles are relatively novel, the nature of human-automation interaction within them has the classic hallmarks of a vigilance task. Drivers must maintain attention for prolonged periods of time to detect and respond to rare and unpredictable events, for example, roadway hazards that automation may be ill equipped to detect. Given the similarity with traditional vigilance tasks, we predicted that drivers of a simulated automated vehicle would demonstrate a vigilance decrement in hazard detection performance. Participants "drove" a simulated automated vehicle for 40 minutes. During that time, their task was to monitor the roadway for roadway hazards. As predicted, hazard detection rate declined precipitously, and reaction times slowed as the drive progressed. Further, subjective ratings of workload and task-related stress indicated that sustained monitoring is demanding and distressing and it is a challenge to maintain task engagement. Monitoring the roadway for potential hazards during automated driving results in workload, stress, and performance decrements similar to those observed in traditional vigilance tasks. To the degree that vigilance is required of automated vehicle drivers, performance errors and associated safety risks are likely to occur as a function of time on task. Vigilance should be a focal safety concern in the development of vehicle automation.

  9. A RULE-BASED SYSTEM APPROACH FOR SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN HAZARDOUS WORK SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ercüment N. DİZDAR

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Developments in technology increased the importance of safety management in work life. These improvements also resulted in a requirement of more investment and assignment on human in work systems. Here we face this problem: Can we make it possible to forecast the possible accidents that workers can face, and prevent these accidents by taking necessary precautions? In this study made, we aimed at developing an rule-based system to forecast the occupational accidents in coming periods at the departments of the facilities in hazardous work systems. The validity of the developed system was proved by implementing it into practice in hazardous work systems in manufacturing industry.

  10. Thermal co-treatment of combustible hazardous waste and waste incineration fly ash in a rotary kiln.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Florian; Blasenbauer, Dominik; Mallow, Ole; Lederer, Jakob; Winter, Franz; Fellner, Johann

    2016-12-01

    As current disposal practices for municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) fly ash are either associated with significant costs or negative environmental impacts, an alternative treatment was investigated in a field scale experiment. Thereto, two rotary kilns were fed with hazardous waste, and moistened MSWI fly ash (water content of 23%) was added to the fuel of one kiln with a ratio of 169kg/Mg hazardous waste for 54h and 300kg/Mg hazardous waste for 48h while the other kiln was used as a reference. It was shown that the vast majority (>90%) of the inserted MSWI fly ash was transferred to the bottom ash of the rotary kiln. This bottom ash complied with the legal limits for non-hazardous waste landfills, thereby demonstrating the potential of the investigated method to transfer hazardous waste (MSWI fly ash) into non-hazardous waste (bottom ash). The results of a simple mixing test (MSWI fly ash and rotary kiln bottom ash have been mixed accordingly without thermal treatment) revealed that the observed transformation of hazardous MSWI fly ash into non-hazardous bottom ash during thermal co-treatment cannot be referred to dilution, as the mixture did not comply with legal limits for non-hazardous waste landfills. For the newly generated fly ash of the kiln, an increase in the concentration of Cd, K and Pb by 54%, 57% and 22%, respectively, was observed. In general, the operation of the rotary kiln was not impaired by the MSWI fly ash addition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Unattached radon daughter atoms and radon daughter equilibrium ratios in uranium mines. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holaday, D.A.

    1972-01-01

    Uranium mines in Colorado and New Mexico were surveyed for airborne concentrations of radon (10043922) and radon daughters. A procedure for measuring individual daughters and the fraction of each existing as free atoms was developed and used for field monitoring. Samples were taken in working areas and particle counts were made. The data was analyzed to determine the ratio of radon to radon daughters as well as the ratios among the radon daughters. The author concludes that since the radon to working level ratios have not changed much in 20 years, using the ratio as the basis for estimating relative biological hazard is just as uncertain now as then. The large number of daughters present as free atoms indicate that the lung radiation doses calculated using any of the lung models need reexamination

  12. National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

    2017-12-01

    National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

  13. Effects of End CAP and Aspect Ratio on Transmission of Sound across a Truss-Like Periodic Double Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    EL-RAHEB, M.; WAGNER, P.

    2002-02-01

    Transmission of sound across 2-D truss-like periodic double panels separated by an air gap and in contact with an acoustic fluid on the external faces is analyzed. Each panel is made of repeated cells. Combining the transfer matrices of the unit cell forms a set of equations for the overall elastic frequency response. The acoustic pressure in the fluids is expressed using a source boundary element method. Adding rigid reflecting end caps confines the air in the gap between panels which influences sound transmission. Measured values of transmission loss differ from the 2-D model by the wide low-frequency dip of the mass-spring-mass or “msm” resonance also termed the “air gap resonance”. In this case, the panels act as rigid masses and the air gap acts as an adiabatic air spring. Results from the idealized 3-D and 2-D models, incorporating rigid cavities and elastic plates, reveal that the “msm” dip is absent in 2-D models radiating into a semi-infinite medium. The dip strengthens as aspect ratio approaches unity. Even when the dip disappears in 2-D, TL rises more steeply for frequencies above the “msm” frequency.

  14. Northwest Hazardous Waste Research, Development, and Demonstration Center: Program Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-02-01

    The Northwest Hazardous Waste Research, Development, and Demonstration Center was created as part of an ongoing federal effort to provide technologies and methods that protect human health and welfare and environment from hazardous wastes. The Center was established by the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA) to develop and adapt innovative technologies and methods for assessing the impacts of and remediating inactive hazardous and radioactive mixed-waste sites. The Superfund legislation authorized $10 million for Pacific Northwest Laboratory to establish and operate the Center over a 5-year period. Under this legislation, Congress authorized $10 million each to support research, development, and demonstration (RD and D) on hazardous and radioactive mixed-waste problems in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington, including the Hanford Site. In 1987, the Center initiated its RD and D activities and prepared this Program Plan that presents the framework within which the Center will carry out its mission. Section 1.0 describes the Center, its mission, objectives, organization, and relationship to other programs. Section 2.0 describes the Center's RD and D strategy and contains the RD and D objectives, priorities, and process to be used to select specific projects. Section 3.0 contains the Center's FY 1988 operating plan and describes the specific RD and D projects to be carried out and their budgets and schedules. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  15. Geomorphological hazards in Swat valley, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usman, A.

    1999-01-01

    This study attempts to describe, interpret and analyze, in depth, the varied geomorphological hazards and their impacts prevailing in the swat valley locate in the northern hilly and mountainous regions of Pakistan. The hills and mountains re zones of high geomorphological activity with rapid rates of weathering, active tectonic activities, abundant precipitation, rapid runoff and heavy sediment transport. Due to the varied topography, lithology, steep slope, erodible soil, heavy winter snowfall and intensive rainfall in the spring and summer seasons, several kinds of geomorphological hazards, such as geomorphic gravitational hazards, Fluvial hazards, Glacial hazards, Geo tectonic hazards, are occurring frequently in swat valley. Amongst them, geomorphic gravitational hazards, such as rock fall rock slide, debris slide mud flow avalanches, are major hazards in mountains and hills while fluvial hazards and sedimentation are mainly confined to the alluvial plain and lowlands of the valley. The Getechtonic hazards, on the other hand, have wide spread distribution in the valley the magnitude and occurrence of each king of hazard is thus, varied according to intensity of process and physical geographic environment. This paper discusses the type distribution and damage due to the various geomorphological hazards and their reduction treatments. The study would to be of particular importance and interest to both natural and social scientists, as well as planner, environmentalists and decision-makers for successful developmental interventions in the region. (author)

  16. Welding hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Welding technology is advancing rapidly in the developed countries and has converted into a science. Welding involving the use of electricity include resistance welding. Welding shops are opened in residential area, which was causing safety hazards, particularly the teenagers and children who eagerly see the welding arc with their naked eyes. There are radiation hazards from ultra violet rays which irritate the skin, eye irritation. Welding arc light of such intensity could damage the eyes. (Orig./A.B.)

  17. Relative consequences of transporting hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Rhyne, W.R.; Simmons, J.A.; Reese, R.T.

    1980-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to discuss methods under study at Transportation Technology Center to develop a perspective on how technical measures of hazard and risk relate to perception of hazards, harm, and risks associated with transporting hazardous materials. This paper is concerned with two major aspects of the relative hazards problem. The first aspect is the analyses of the possible effects associated with exposure to hazardous materials as contained in the following two parts: outlines of possible problems and controversies that could be encountered in the evaluation and comparisons of hazards and risks; and description of the various measures of harm (hazards or dangers) and subsequent comparisons thereof. The second aspect of this paper leads into a presentation of the results of a study which had the following purposes: to develop analytical techniques for a consistent treatment of the phenomenology of the consequences of a release of hazardous materials; to reduce the number of variables in the consequence analyses by development of transportation accident scenarios which have the same meteorological conditions, demography, traffic and population densities, geographical features and other appropriate conditions and to develop consistent methods for presenting the results of studies and analyses that describe the phenomenology and compare hazards. The results of the study are intended to provide a bridge between analytical certainty and perception of the hazards involved. Understanding the differences in perception of hazards resulting from transport of various hazardous materials is fraught with difficulties in isolating the qualitative and quantitative features of the problem. By relating the quantitative impacts of material hazards under identical conditions, it is hoped that the perceived differences in material hazards can be delineated and evaluated

  18. Detecting periodicities with Gaussian processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Durrande

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of detecting and quantifying the periodic component of a function given noise-corrupted observations of a limited number of input/output tuples. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression, which provides a flexible non-parametric framework for modelling periodic data. We introduce a novel decomposition of the covariance function as the sum of periodic and aperiodic kernels. This decomposition allows for the creation of sub-models which capture the periodic nature of the signal and its complement. To quantify the periodicity of the signal, we derive a periodicity ratio which reflects the uncertainty in the fitted sub-models. Although the method can be applied to many kernels, we give a special emphasis to the Matérn family, from the expression of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space inner product to the implementation of the associated periodic kernels in a Gaussian process toolkit. The proposed method is illustrated by considering the detection of periodically expressed genes in the arabidopsis genome.

  19. Measuring viability of pacs during reform period in Maharashtra: A case study

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Deepak

    2007-01-01

    The study showed a reduction in the operational efficiency of the selected PACS during the post-economic reform period as against the pre-economic reform period. The operational efficiency was measured in respect of various liquidity ratio, profitability ratios and financial leverage ratios. Not only the selected societies showed a decline in their current ratio, rate of return on assets, return on owner’s equity and Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC) but also showed higher dependency on le...

  20. The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan Weili [Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong (China); Chen Guohua, E-mail: scut.safetycenter@gmail.com [Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong (China); Ye Qing; Chen Qingguang [Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong (China)

    2011-02-28

    From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents.

  1. The situation of hazardous chemical accidents in China between 2000 and 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Weili; Chen Guohua; Ye Qing; Chen Qingguang

    2011-01-01

    From the aspects of the total quantity of accidents, regional inequality, enterprises scale and environmental pollution accidents, this study makes an analysis of hazardous chemical accidents in China for the period spanning from 2000 to 2006. The following results are obtained: firstly, there were lots of accidents and fatalities in hazardous chemical business, i.e., the number of casualty accidents fluctuated between 200 and 600/year, the number of fatality fluctuated between 220 and 1100/year. Secondly, the accident rate in developed southeast coastal areas, e.g., Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, was far higher than that in the northwest regions, e.g., Xizang, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. Thirdly, nearly 80% of dangerous chemical accidents had occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Finally, various sudden environmental pollution accidents resulted from hazardous chemicals were frequent in recent years, causing a huge damage to human and property. Then, based on the readjustment of economic structure in the last decades, the development status of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in SMEs and other factors, the paper explores the main causes, which offers valuable insight into measures that should be taken to reduce hazardous chemical accidents.

  2. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  3. Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

    2012-12-01

    earthquake drills and long periods of quiescence between large earthquake events. 60% of respondents had participated in earthquake drills; however, less than 45% provided the correct response when asked what they would do if an earthquake were to occur. In summary, knowledge of natural hazards and proximity to hazard sources was found to be low or inaccurate, which corresponds to a low perception of risk. Awareness of evacuation routes, emergency response or coping protocol for natural hazards was also found to be low, suggesting this large, semi-transient population lacks the understanding of proper preparation and response to a natural hazard. These results indicate the need for better education concerning the risks of natural hazards in this region and the steps for better preparedness.

  4. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  5. The decreasing period of AG Phe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerruti, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    Seven UBV photoelectric times of minimum light are presented. They shift the photographically known period 0 . d 613 to 0 . d 380. The improvement of the light elements leads to a reliable shortening of the period. A rough determination of the mass-ratio permitted to give an estimate of the mass transfer in the system. 13 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab. (author)

  6. The relationship between size, book-to-market equity ratio, earnings–price ratio, and return for the Tehran stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Sadeghi Lafmejani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to determine whether or there is any difference between the returns of two value and growth portfolios, sorted by price-to-earnings (P/E and price-to-book value (P/BV, in terms of the ratios of market sensitivity to index (β, firm size and market liquidity in listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE over the period 2001-2008. The selected firms were collected from those with existing two-consecutive positive P/E and P/BV ratios and by excluding financial and holding firms. There were five independent variables for the proposed study of this paper including P/E, P/B, market size, market sensitivity beta (β and market liquidity. In each year, we first sort firms in non-decreasing order and setup four set of portfolios with equal firms. Therefore, the first portfolio with the lowest P/E ratio is called value portfolio and the last one with the highest P/E ratio is called growth portfolio. This process was repeated based on P/BV ratio to determine value and growth portfolios, accordingly. The study investigated the characteristics of two portfolios based on firm size, β and liquidity. The study has implemented t-student and Levin’s test to examine different hypotheses and the results have indicated mix effects of market sensitivity, firm size and market liquidity on returns of the firms in various periods.

  7. Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Shivakumar G.; Menon, Arun; Dodagoudar, G. R.

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, {M}w = 6.4 (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration ({S}a) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

  8. 21 CFR 123.6 - Hazard analysis and Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Control Point (HACCP) plan. 123.6 Section 123.6 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF... Provisions § 123.6 Hazard analysis and Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) plan. (a) Hazard... fish or fishery product being processed in the absence of those controls. (b) The HACCP plan. Every...

  9. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT FOR PLANNING FUTURE DECONTAMINATION AND DECOMMISSIONING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assign a hazard ranking to the items reviewed

  10. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  11. Buying time: Franchising hazardous and nuclear waste cleanup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, D.R. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-05-01

    This paper describes a private franchise approach to long-term custodial care, monitoring and eventual cleanup of hazardous and nuclear waste sites. The franchise concept could be applied to Superfund sites, decommissioning commercial reactors and safeguarding their wastes and to Department of Energy sites. Privatization would reduce costs by enforcing efficient operations and capital investments during the containment period, by providing incentives for successful innovation and by sustaining containment until the cleanup`s net benefits exceed its costs. The franchise system would also permit local governments and citizens to demand and pay for more risk reduction than provided by the federal government. In principle, they would have the option of taking over site management. The major political drawback of the idea is that it requires society to be explicit about what it is willing to pay for now to protect current and future generations. Hazardous waste sites are enduring legacies of energy development. Abandoned mines, closed refineries, underground storage tanks and nuclear facilities have often become threats to human health and water quality. The policy of the United States government is that such sites should quickly be made nonpolluting and safe for unrestricted use. That is, the policy of the United States is prompt cleanup. Orphaned commercial hazardous waste sites are addressed by the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Superfund program. 17 refs., 2 tabs.

  12. Potential support ratios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    The ‘prospective potential support ratio’ has been proposed by researchers as a measure that accurately quantifies the burden of ageing, by identifying the fraction of a population that has passed a certain measure of longevity, for example, 17 years of life expectancy. Nevertheless......, the prospective potential support ratio usually focuses on the current mortality schedule, or period life expectancy. Instead, in this paper we look at the actual mortality experienced by cohorts in a population, using cohort life tables. We analyse differences between the two perspectives using mortality models...

  13. Extended Information Ratio for Portfolio Optimization Using Simulated Annealing with Constrained Neighborhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orito, Yukiko; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Tsujimura, Yasuhiro; Kambayashi, Yasushi

    The portfolio optimizations are to determine the proportion-weighted combination in the portfolio in order to achieve investment targets. This optimization is one of the multi-dimensional combinatorial optimizations and it is difficult for the portfolio constructed in the past period to keep its performance in the future period. In order to keep the good performances of portfolios, we propose the extended information ratio as an objective function, using the information ratio, beta, prime beta, or correlation coefficient in this paper. We apply the simulated annealing (SA) to optimize the portfolio employing the proposed ratio. For the SA, we make the neighbor by the operation that changes the structure of the weights in the portfolio. In the numerical experiments, we show that our portfolios keep the good performances when the market trend of the future period becomes different from that of the past period.

  14. Resilience to Interacting multi-natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Conventional analyses of hazard assessment tend to focus on individual hazards in isolation. However, many parts of the world are usually affected by multiple natural hazards with the potential for interacting relationships. The understanding of such interactions, their impacts and the related uncertainties, are an important and topical area of research. Interacting multi-hazards may appear in different forms, including 1) CASCADING HAZARDS (a primary hazard triggering one or more secondary hazards such as an earthquake triggering landslides which may block river channels with dammed lakes and ensued floods), 2) CONCURRING HAZARDS (two or more primary hazards coinciding to trigger or exacerbate secondary hazards such as an earthquake and a rainfall event simultaneously creating landslides), and 3) ALTERING HAZARDS (a primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring such as major earthquakes disturbing soil/rock materials by violent ground shaking which alter the regional patterns of landslides and debris flows in the subsequent years to come). All three types of interacting multi-hazards may occur in natural hazard prone regions, so it is important that research on hazard resilience should cover all of them. In the past decades, great progresses have been made in tackling disaster risk around the world. However, there are still many challenging issues to be solved, and the disasters over recent years have clearly demonstrated the inadequate resilience in our highly interconnected and interdependent systems. We have identified the following weaknesses and knowledge gaps in the current disaster risk management: 1) although our understanding in individual hazards has been greatly improved, there is a lack of sound knowledge about mechanisms and processes of interacting multi-hazards. Therefore, the resultant multi-hazard risk is often significantly underestimated with severe consequences. It is also poorly understood about the spatial and

  15. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  16. Hazardous materials and waste management a guide for the professional hazards manager

    CERN Document Server

    Cheremisinoff, Nicholas P

    1995-01-01

    The management of hazardous materials and industrial wastes is complex, requiring a high degree of knowledge over very broad technical and legal subject areas. Hazardous wastes and materials are diverse, with compositions and properties that not only vary significantly between industries, but within industries, and indeed within the complexity of single facilities. Proper management not only requires an understanding of the numerous and complex regulations governing hazardous materials and waste streams, but an understanding and knowledge of the treatment, post-treatment, and waste minimizatio

  17. Impact of Inflation Accounting Application on Key Financial Ratios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aydın KARAPINAR

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of inflation accounting on key financal ratios. To this end, the financial statements of 132 companies listed in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE are studied. An analyis of paired samples t test has been conducted on the financial ratios of the companies. The results show that a significant difference between adjusted cost based financial ratios and historical cost based financial ratios occurs only for current, ratios, equity ratios and noncurrent turnover ratios. The study does not cover companies operating in the financial sector. The companies reporting in accordance with IFRS for the studied periods that spans 2001-2004 are not included in the study either. The study offers valuable information as to analysing companies operating in hiper inflation economies.

  18. Hazards in the chemical laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bretherick, L.

    1987-01-01

    The contents of this book are: Preface; Introduction; Health and Safety at Work Act 1974; Safety Planning and Management; Fire Protection; Reactive Chemical Hazards; Chemical Hazards and Toxicology; Health Care and First Aid; Hazardous Chemicals; Precautions against Radiations; and An American View

  19. Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald

    2014-05-01

    Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including

  20. St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

    2016-01-01

    We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated

  1. Hazardous solvent substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twitchell, K.E.

    1995-01-01

    This article is an overview of efforts at INEL to reduce the generation of hazardous wastes through the elimination of hazardous solvents. To aid in their efforts, a number of databases have been developed and will become a part of an Integrated Solvent Substitution Data System. This latter data system will be accessible through Internet

  2. Modified hazard ranking system for sites with mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes. User manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Stenner, R.D.

    1986-04-01

    This document describes both the original Hazard Ranking System and the modified Hazard Ranking System as they are to be used in evaluating the relative potential for uncontrolled hazardous substance facilities to cause human health or safety problems or ecological or environmental damage. Detailed instructions for using the mHRS/HRS computer code are provided, along with instructions for performing the calculations by hand. Uniform application of the ranking system will permit the DOE to identify those releases of hazardous substances that pose the greatest hazard to humans or the environment. However, the mHRS/HRS by itself cannot establish priorities for the allocation of funds for remedial action. The mHRS/HRS is a means for applying uniform technical judgment regarding the potential hazards presented by a facility relative to other facilities. It does not address the feasibility, desirability, or degree of cleanup required. Neither does it deal with the readiness or ability of a state to carry out such remedial action, as may be indicated, or to meet other conditions prescribed in CERCLA. 13 refs., 13 figs., 27 tabs

  3. Modified hazard ranking system for sites with mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes. User manual.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hawley, K.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Stenner, R.D.

    1986-04-01

    This document describes both the original Hazard Ranking System and the modified Hazard Ranking System as they are to be used in evaluating the relative potential for uncontrolled hazardous substance facilities to cause human health or safety problems or ecological or environmental damage. Detailed instructions for using the mHRS/HRS computer code are provided, along with instructions for performing the calculations by hand. Uniform application of the ranking system will permit the DOE to identify those releases of hazardous substances that pose the greatest hazard to humans or the environment. However, the mHRS/HRS by itself cannot establish priorities for the allocation of funds for remedial action. The mHRS/HRS is a means for applying uniform technical judgment regarding the potential hazards presented by a facility relative to other facilities. It does not address the feasibility, desirability, or degree of cleanup required. Neither does it deal with the readiness or ability of a state to carry out such remedial action, as may be indicated, or to meet other conditions prescribed in CERCLA. 13 refs., 13 figs., 27 tabs.

  4. Hazardous solvent substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twitchell, K.E.

    1995-01-01

    Eliminating hazardous solvents is good for the environment, worker safety, and the bottom line. However, even though we are motivated to find replacements, the big question is 'What can we use as replacements for hazardous solvents?'You, too, can find replacements for your hazardous solvents. All you have to do is search for them. Search through the vendor literature of hundreds of companies with thousands of products. Ponder the associated material safety data sheets, assuming of course that you can obtain them and, having obtained them, that you can read them. You will want to search the trade magazines and other sources for product reviews. You will want to talk to users about how well the product actually works. You may also want to check US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other government reports for toxicity and other safety information. And, of course, you will want to compare the product's constituent chemicals with the many hazardous constituency lists to ensure the safe and legal use of the product in your workplace

  5. Slope mass movements on rocky sea-cliffs: A power-law distributed natural hazard on the Barlavento Coast, Algarve, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Sebastião Braz

    2006-06-01

    The coast of the Central Algarve, Portugal, is dominated by sea-cliffs, cut on Miocene calcarenites; here, the main coastal geologic hazards result from the conflict between human occupation and sea-cliff recession. The evolution of this rocky coast occurs through an intermittent and discontinuous series of slope mass movements, along a 46 km cliff front. For the last 30 years, the increase of tourism occupation has amplified the risks to both people and buildings. In the last decade we have seen several accidents caused by cliff failure, which killed or wounded people and destroyed several buildings. The definition of buffer zones limited by hazard lines parallel to the cliff edge, where land use is restricted, is a widely used and effective preventive measure for mitigating risk. Rocky coasts typically show a slow cliff evolution. The process of gathering statistically significant field inventories of mass movements is, thus, very long. Although mass movement catalogues provide fundamental information on sea cliff evolution patterns and are an outstanding tool in hazard assessment, published data sets are still rare. In this work, we use two inventories of mass movement width, recorded on sea cliffs cut on Miocene calcarenites: a nine year long continuous field inventory (1995-2004) with 140 recorded events, and a 44 year long catalogue based on comparative analysis of aerial photographs (1947-1991), that includes 177 events. The cumulative frequency-width distributions of both data sets fit, above a critical width value corresponding to the threshold of full completeness of the inventories, to power-law distributions. The knowledge of the limits of the catalogues enabled the construction of a 53 year long record inventory over the range of mean width ⩾3 m ( n=167 events) and maximum width ⩾4 m ( n=155 events). The data assembled corresponds to a partial series and was converted to a return period-size distribution. Both return period-width distributions

  6. Cause-specific mortality according to urine albumin creatinine ratio in the general population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tea Skaaby

    Full Text Available Urine albumin creatinine ratio, UACR, is positively associated with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and diabetes in observational studies. Whether a high UACR is also associated with other causes of death is unclear. We investigated the association between UACR and cause-specific mortality.We included a total of 9,125 individuals from two population-based studies, Monica10 and Inter99, conducted in 1993-94 and 1999-2001, respectively. Urine albumin creatinine ratio was measured from spot urine samples by standard methods. Information on causes of death was obtained from The Danish Register of Causes of Death until 31 December 2010. There were a total of 920 deaths, and the median follow-up was 11.3 years.Multivariable Cox regression analyses with age as underlying time axis showed statistically significant positive associations between UACR status and risk of all-cause mortality, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the circulatory system, and diseases of the respiratory system with hazard ratios 1.56, 6.98, 2.34, 2.03, and 1.91, for the fourth UACR compared with the first, respectively. Using UACR as a continuous variable, we also found a statistically significant positive association with risk of death caused by diseases of the digestive system with a hazard ratio of 1.02 per 10 mg/g higher UACR.We found statistically significant positive associations between baseline UACR and death from all-cause mortality, endocrine nutritional and metabolic diseases, and diseases of the circulatory system and possibly mental and behavioural disorders, and diseases of the respiratory and digestive system.

  7. Radon and its hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Guilan

    2002-01-01

    The author describes basic physical and chemical properties of radon and the emanation, introduces methods of radon measurement, expounds the hazards of non-mine radon accumulation to the health of human being and the protection, as well as the history how the human being recognizes the hazards of radon through the specific data and examples, and finally proposes protecting measures to avoid the hazards of radon to the health of human being, and to do ecologic evaluation of environments

  8. Industrial hazard and safety handbook

    CERN Document Server

    King, Ralph W

    1979-01-01

    Industrial Hazard and Safety Handbook (Revised Impression) describes and exposes the main hazards found in industry, with emphasis on how these hazards arise, are ignored, are identified, are eliminated, or are controlled. These hazard conditions can be due to human stresses (for example, insomnia), unsatisfactory working environments, as well as secret industrial processes. The book reviews the cost of accidents, human factors, inspections, insurance, legal aspects, planning for major emergencies, organization, and safety measures. The text discusses regulations, codes of practice, site layou

  9. Global Landslide Hazard Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Hazard Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide and snow avalanche hazards based upon work of the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute...

  10. Intensity Based Seismic Hazard Map of Republic of Macedonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dojcinovski, Dragi; Dimiskovska, Biserka; Stojmanovska, Marta

    2016-04-01

    The territory of the Republic of Macedonia and the border terrains are among the most seismically active parts of the Balkan Peninsula belonging to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt. The seismological data on the R. Macedonia from the past 16 centuries point to occurrence of very strong catastrophic earthquakes. The hypocenters of the occurred earthquakes are located above the Mohorovicic discontinuity, most frequently, at a depth of 10-20 km. Accurate short -term prognosis of earthquake occurrence, i.e., simultaneous prognosis of time, place and intensity of their occurrence is still not possible. The present methods of seismic zoning have advanced to such an extent that it is with a great probability that they enable efficient protection against earthquake effects. The seismic hazard maps of the Republic of Macedonia are the result of analysis and synthesis of data from seismological, seismotectonic and other corresponding investigations necessary for definition of the expected level of seismic hazard for certain time periods. These should be amended, from time to time, with new data and scientific knowledge. The elaboration of this map does not completely solve all issues related to earthquakes, but it provides basic empirical data necessary for updating the existing regulations for construction of engineering structures in seismically active areas regulated by legal regulations and technical norms whose constituent part is the seismic hazard map. The map has been elaborated based on complex seismological and geophysical investigations of the considered area and synthesis of the results from these investigations. There were two phases of elaboration of the map. In the first phase, the map of focal zones characterized by maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes has been elaborated. In the second phase, the intensities of expected earthquakes have been computed according to the MCS scale. The map is prognostic, i.e., it provides assessment of the

  11. Technology assessment of solar-energy systems. Materials resource and hazardous materials impacts of solar deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffman, Y. M.; Tahami, J. E.

    1982-04-01

    The materials-resource and hazardous-materials impacts were determined by examining the type and quantity of materials used in the manufacture, construction, installation, operation and maintenance of solar systems. The materials requirements were compared with US materials supply and demand data to determine if potential problems exist in terms of future availability of domestic supply and increased dependence on foreign sources of supply. Hazardous materials were evaluated in terms of public and occupational health hazards and explosive and fire hazards. It is concluded that: although large amounts of materials would be required, the US had sufficient industrial capacity to produce those materials; (2) postulated growth in solar technology deployment during the period 1995-2000 could cause some production shortfalls in the steel and copper industry; the U.S. could increase its import reliance for certain materials such as silver, iron ore, and copper; however, shifts to other materials such as aluminum and polyvinylchloride could alleviate some of these problems.

  12. Assessment of pre-crisis and syn-crisis seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes, Campania, southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertito, Vincenzo; Zollo, Aldo

    2011-08-01

    In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982-1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.

  13. Mitral E wave deceleration time to peak E velocity ratio and cardiovascular outcome in hypertensive patients during antihypertensive treatment (from the LIFE echo-substudy)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinali, Marcello; Aurigemma, Gerard P; de Simone, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    for mitral peak E-velocity (mitral deceleration index [MDI]) might better predict incident cardiovascular (CV) events in hypertensive patients during treatment compared to DTE alone or other traditional indexes of diastolic function, such as the mitral E/A ratio. We evaluated 770 hypertensive patients.......01). Unadjusted Cox regression analysis showed a positive association between the baseline MDI and CV events (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.37, p = 0.002). In the time-varied Cox models, a greater in-treatment MDI was associated with a greater rate of CV events (hazard ratio 1.43, 95...... findings of left ventricular hypertrophy, the MDI independently predicted future CV events. Normalization of DTE for E velocity might be preferred to other traditional diastolic function indexes in evaluating diastolic function during antihypertensive treatment....

  14. Scale of seismic and rock burst hazard in the Silesian companies in Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renata Patynska; Jozef Kabiesz [Central Mining Institute, Katowice (Poland)

    2009-09-15

    Presently the seismic and rock burst hazard appears still to be important in most of hard coal mines in Poland. Recently, there was a significant increase of seismic activity of the Silesian rock massive, when compared with the previous years. In the period 1999-2008 the hard coal mines experienced 34 rock bursts. The causes of rockburst occurrence are presented based on the analysis of the rockbursts occurring in the Polish hard coal mines. The scale of the rockburst hazard has been characterized with respect to the mining and geological conditions of the existing exploitation. Of the factors influencing the state of rockburst hazard, the most essential one is considered the depth interval ranging from 600 m to 900 m. The basic factors that promote the rockburst occurrence are as follows: seismogenic strata, edges and remnants, goaf, faults, pillars and excessive paneling. 5 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Periodic-cylinder vesicle with minimal energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao-Hua, Zhou

    2010-01-01

    We give some details about the periodic cylindrical solution found by Zhang and Ou-Yang in [1996 Phys. Rev. E 53 4206] for the general shape equation of vesicle. Three different kinds of periodic cylindrical surfaces and a special closed cylindrical surface are obtained. Using the elliptic functions contained in mathematic, we find that this periodic shape has the minimal total energy for one period when the period–amplitude ratio β ≈ 1.477, and point out that it is a discontinuous deformation between plane and this periodic shape. Our results also are suitable for DNA and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs). (cross-disciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  16. Natural Hazards, Second Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhban, Badaoui

    Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

  17. 75 FR 73972 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Removal of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-30

    ... Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Removal of Direct Final.... Lists of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 261 Environmental Protection, Hazardous waste, Recycling, Reporting and... follows: PART 261--IDENTIFICATION AND LISTING OF HAZARDOUS WASTE 0 1. The authority citation for part 261...

  18. Hazardous waste: cleanup and prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandas, Stephen; Cronin, Nancy L.; Farrar, Frank; Serrano, Guillermo Eliezer Ávila; Yajimovich, Oscar Efraín González; Muñoz, Aurora R.; Rivera, María del C.

    1996-01-01

    Our lifestyles are supported by complex Industrial activities that produce many different chemicals and chemical wastes. The Industries that produce our clothing, cars, medicines, paper, food, fuels, steel, plastics, and electric components use and discard thousands of chemicals every year. At home we may use lawn chemicals, solvents, disinfectants, cleaners, and auto products to Improve our quality of life. A chemical that presents a threat or unreasonable risk to people or the environment Is a hazardous material. When a hazardous material can no longer be used, It becomes a hazardous waste. Hazardous wastes come from a variety of sources, from both present and past activities. Impacts to human health and the environment can result from Improper handling and disposal of hazardous waste.

  19. SRL process hazards review manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-08-01

    The principal objective of the Process Hazards Management Program is to provide a regular, systematic review of each process at the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) to eliminate injuries and to minimize property damage resulting from process hazards of catastrophic potential. Management effort is directed, through the Du Pont Safety Program, toward those controls and practices that ensure this objective. The Process Hazards Management Program provides an additional dimension to further ensure the health and safety of employees and the public. Du Pont has concluded that an organized approach is essential to obtain an effective and efficient process hazards review. The intent of this manual is to provide guidance in creating such an organized approach to performing process hazards reviews on a continuing basis

  20. Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Hazard Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-09-12

    Hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment process was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. The analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public. The following selected hazardous scenarios received increased attention: •Scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy, controls were identified in the What-If analysis table that prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release. •Scenarios with significant consequences that could impact personnel outside the immediate operations area, quantitative analyses were performed to determine the potential magnitude of the scenario. The set of “critical controls” were identified for these scenarios (see Section 4) which prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release of events with significant consequences.

  1. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-04-10

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.  Created: 4/10/2007 by CDC National Center for Environmental Health.   Date Released: 4/13/2007.

  2. Digital Data for Volcano Hazards in the Mount Jefferson Region, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Walder, J.S.; Gardner, C.A.; Conrey, R.M.; Fisher, B.J.

    2008-01-01

    Mount Jefferson has erupted repeatedly for hundreds of thousands of years, with its last eruptive episode during the last major glaciation which culminated about 15,000 years ago. Geologic evidence shows that Mount Jefferson is capable of large explosive eruptions. The largest such eruption occurred between 35,000 and 100,000 years ago. If Mount Jefferson erupts again, areas close to the eruptive vent will be severely affected, and even areas tens of kilometers (tens of miles) downstream along river valleys or hundreds of kilometers (hundreds of miles) downwind may be at risk. Numerous small volcanoes occupy the area between Mount Jefferson and Mount Hood to the north, and between Mount Jefferson and the Three Sisters region to the south. These small volcanoes tend not to pose the far-reaching hazards associated with Mount Jefferson, but are nonetheless locally important. A concern at Mount Jefferson, but not at the smaller volcanoes, is the possibility that small-to-moderate sized landslides could occur even during periods of no volcanic activity. Such landslides may transform as they move into lahars (watery flows of rock, mud, and debris) that can inundate areas far downstream. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layer used to produce the Mount Jefferson volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 99-24 (Walder and others, 1999) is included in this data set. Both proximal and distal hazard zones were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various volcano hazard areas around the mountain.

  3. Checking of seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal NPP of Chinese continent after Fukushima nuclear accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang Xiangdong; Zhou Bengang; Zhao Lianda

    2013-01-01

    A checking on seismic and tsunami hazard for coastal nuclear power plant (NPP) of Chinese continent has been made after Japanese Fukushima nuclear accident caused by earthquake tsunami.The results of the checking are introduced briefly in this paper,including the evaluations of seismic and tsunami hazard in NPP siting period,checking results on seismic and tsunami hazard.Because Chinese coastal area belongs to the continental shelf and far from the boundary of plate collision,the tsunami hazard is not significant for coastal area of Chinese continent.However,the effect from tsunami still can' t be excluded absolutely since calculated result of Manila trench tsunami source although the tsunami wave is lower than water level from storm surge.The research about earthquake tsunami will continue in future.The tsunami warning system and emergency program of NPP will be established based on principle of defense in depth in China.

  4. Modelling soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) in the immediate period after a grassland fire in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Paulo; Cerda, Artemi; Misiūnė, Ieva

    2015-04-01

    The soil sodium and potassium adsorption ratio (SPAR) is an index that measures the amount of sodium and potassium adsorbed onto clay and organic matter surfaces, in relation to calcium and magnesium. Assess the potential of soil dispersion or flocculation, a process which has implication in soil hydraulic properties and erosion (Sarah, 2004). Depending on severity and the type of ash produced, fire can changes in the immediate period the soil nutrient status (Bodi et al. 2014). Ash releases onto soil surface a large amount of cations, due the high pH. Previous works showed that SPAR from ash slurries is higher than solutions produced from litter (Pereira et al., 2014a). Normally the spatial distribution of topsoil nutrients in the immediate period after the fire is very heterogeneous, due to the different impacts of fire. Thus it is important to identify the most accurate interpolation method in order to identify with better precision the impacts of fire on soil properties. The objective of this work is to test several interpolation methods. The study area is located in near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire it was designed a plot in a burned area with near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Twenty five samples were collected from the topsoil. The SPAR index was calculated according to the formula: (Na++K+)/(Ca2++Mg2+)1/2 (Sarah, 2004). Data followed the normal distribution, thus no transformation was required previous to data modelling. Several well know interpolation models were tested, as Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF), Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ), Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2 and Ordinary Kriging. The best interpolator was the one which had the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (Pereira et al., 2014b). The

  5. SHC, Seismic Hazard Assessment for Eastern US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.; Davis, B.

    2001-01-01

    magnitude-recurrence relationship. The seismic hazard methodology is based on a probability model of the occurrence and distribution of earthquakes and the attenuation of the ground motion from a source to a site. It also includes modeling of local site effects, such as soil types. The earthquake location is assumed to be uniformly distributed throughout the zone, and the ground-motion model expresses the decay with distance of the median value of a ground-motion parameter. In addition, the methodology incorporates the uncertainty in all parameters into the results. The uncertainty in the hazard is estimated by a Monte Carlo simulation process in which all levels of confidence are normalized and treated as probability values. It includes a probability distribution of the maps for each seismicity expert, distributions for the uncertainty in each of the seismicity parameters, and distribution of the ground-motion models for each of the ground-motion experts. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of: 150 zones per combination; 100 combinations; 96 zones; 50 simulations per attenuation expert; 50 zone clusters for alternative boundaries; 35 zones per cluster; 30 maps; 30 zones per map; 21 distances per distribution of a zone; 20 zones in a circle of influence; 20 coefficients per attenuation model; 11 seismic experts; 10 accelerations; 9 frequencies; 7 attenuation models per expert; 6 attenuation experts for ALEAS; 5 attenuation experts for COMBS; 5 return periods; 4 regions

  6. Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharer, Katherine M.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Weldon, Ray J.; Fumal, Tom E.

    2010-01-01

    It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.

  7. The synergistic effect of breastfeeding discontinuation and cesarean section delivery on postpartum depression: A nationwide population-based cohort study in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Jin Young; Choi, Young; Kim, Juyeong; Cho, Kyoung Hee; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2017-08-15

    The relationships between breastfeeding discontinuation and cesarean section delivery, and the occurrence of postpartum depression (PPD) remain unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association of breastfeeding discontinuation and cesarean section delivery with PPD during the first 6 months after delivery. Data were extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort for 81,447 women who delivered during 2004-2013. PPD status was determined using the diagnosis code at outpatient or inpatient visit during the 6-month postpartum period. Breastfeeding discontinuation and cesarean section delivery were identified from prescription of lactation suppression drugs and diagnosis, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. Of the 81,447 women, 666 (0.82%) had PPD. PPD risk was higher in women who discontinued breastfeeding than in those who continued breastfeeding (hazard ratio=3.23, Pwomen with cesarean section delivery than in those with vaginal delivery (hazard ratio=1.26, P=0.0040), and in women with cesarean section delivery who discontinued breastfeeding than in those with vaginal delivery who continued breastfeeding (hazard ratio=4.92, Pworking status, which could introduce selection bias and errors due to miscoding; and potential lack of adjustment for important confounders. Breastfeeding discontinuation and cesarean section delivery were associated with PPD during the 6-month postpartum period. Our results support the implementation of breastfeeding promoting policies, and PPD screening and treatment programs during the early postpartum period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The Contribution of Palaeoseismology to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations, published in 2010, covers all aspects of site evaluation relating to seismic hazards and recommends the use of prehistoric, historical and instrumental earthquake data in seismic hazard assessments. Prehistoric data on earthquakes cover a much longer period than do historical and instrumental data. However, gathering such data is generally difficult in most regions of the world, owing to an absence of human records. Prehistoric data on earthquakes can be obtained through the use of palaeoseismic techniques. This publication describes the current status and practices of palaeoseismology, in order to support Member States in meeting the recommendations of SSG-9 and in establishing the necessary earthquake related database for seismic hazard assessment and reassessment. At a donors’ meeting of the International Seismic Safety Centre Extrabudgetary Project in January 2011, it was suggested to develop detailed guidelines on seismic hazards. Soon after the meeting, the disastrous Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March 2011 and the consequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant occurred. The importance of palaeoseismology for seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation was highlighted by the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. However, no methodology for performing investigations using palaeoseismic techniques has so far been available in an IAEA publication. The detailed guidelines and practical tools provided here will be of value to nuclear power plant operating organizations, regulatory bodies, vendors, technical support organizations and researchers in the area of seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation for nuclear installations, and the information will be of importance in support of hazard assessments in the future

  9. A life cycle hazard assessment (LCHA) framework to address fire hazards at the wildland-urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, Eric; Pierce, Jen; Wuerzer, Thomas; Glenn, Nancy; Dialani, Jijay; Gibble, Katie; Frazier, Tim; Strand, Eva

    2015-04-01

    up with an assessment of the impact of the product on the environment over time and is being considered beyond the business and logistics communities in such areas as biodiversity and ecosystem impacts. From our perspective, we consider wildfire as the "product" and want to understand how it impacts the environment (spatially, temporally, across the bio-physical and social domains). Through development of this LCHA we adapt the LCA approach with a focus on the inputs (from fire and pre-fire efforts) outputs (from post fire conditions) and how they evolve and are responded to by the responsible agencies and stakeholders responsible. A Life Cycle Hazard Assessment (LCHA) approach extends and integrates the understanding of hazards over much longer periods of time than previously considered. The LCHA also provides an integrated platform for the necessary interdisciplinary approach to understanding decision and environmental change across the life cycle of the fire event. This presentation will discuss our theoretical and empirical framework for developing a longitudinal LCHA and contribute to the overall goals of the NH7.1 session.

  10. Does computer use pose a hazard for future long-term sickness absence?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Johan Hviid; Mikkelsen, Sigurd

    2010-01-01

    . The hazard ratio for sickness absence with weekly increase of one hour in computer use was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.00). Low satisfaction with work place arrangements and female gender both doubled the risk of sickness absence.We have earlier found that computer use did not predict persistent pain in the neck...... and upper limb, and it seems that computer use neither predicts future long-term sickness absence of all causes....

  11. Detection and analyse of hazardous roads in rural areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Michael

    2003-01-01

    For the last period of 5-10 years the notion "Grey roads" (hazardous roads) has appeared in Danish traffic safety work and improvement of these roads has become a very important part of the traffic safety work in many countries. The problem is, that the notion never has been clearly defined......, and therefore there are no unambiguos methods to point out and analyse "Grey roads". In this article based on a ph.D.-project a method to detecting "Grey roads" is introduced....

  12. Transportation of Hazardous Evidentiary Material.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Douglas.

    2005-06-01

    This document describes the specimen and transportation containers currently available for use with hazardous and infectious materials. A detailed comparison of advantages, disadvantages, and costs of the different technologies is included. Short- and long-term recommendations are also provided.3 DraftDraftDraftExecutive SummaryThe Federal Bureau of Investigation's Hazardous Materials Response Unit currently has hazardous material transport containers for shipping 1-quart paint cans and small amounts of contaminated forensic evidence, but the containers may not be able to maintain their integrity under accident conditions or for some types of hazardous materials. This report provides guidance and recommendations on the availability of packages for the safe and secure transport of evidence consisting of or contaminated with hazardous chemicals or infectious materials. Only non-bulk containers were considered because these are appropriate for transport on small aircraft. This report will addresses packaging and transportation concerns for Hazardous Classes 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9 materials. If the evidence is known or suspected of belonging to one of these Hazardous Classes, it must be packaged in accordance with the provisions of 49 CFR Part 173. The anthrax scare of several years ago, and less well publicized incidents involving unknown and uncharacterized substances, has required that suspicious substances be sent to appropriate analytical laboratories for analysis and characterization. Transportation of potentially hazardous or infectious material to an appropriate analytical laboratory requires transport containers that maintain both the biological and chemical integrity of the substance in question. As a rule, only relatively small quantities will be available for analysis. Appropriate transportation packaging is needed that will maintain the integrity of the substance, will not allow biological alteration, will not react chemically with the substance being

  13. Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Abdul Wajid

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

  14. 30 CFR 47.21 - Identifying hazardous chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., subpart Z, Toxic and Hazardous Substances. (4) American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Identifying hazardous chemicals. 47.21 Section... TRAINING HAZARD COMMUNICATION (HazCom) Hazard Determination § 47.21 Identifying hazardous chemicals. The...

  15. 76 FR 74709 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Final Exclusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ..., including any sludge, spill residue, ash, emission control dust, or leachate, remains a hazardous waste... water for use as a cleaning agent. The slop oil waste is thereby diluted and hazardous constituents are... separation sludges that are listed as hazardous wastes due to benzene, benzo(a)pyrene, chrysene, lead and...

  16. 75 FR 78918 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Removal of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-17

    ... and Community Right-to-Know Act FDA Food and Drug Administration HSWA Hazardous and Solid Waste...(f)), and hazardous substances (40 CFR 302.4) based solely upon the evidence that it is a potential... subsequently identified as hazardous wastes in Sec. 261.33(f) based solely on their potential for carcinogenic...

  17. Modified Hazard Ranking System/Hazard Ranking System for sites with mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes: Software documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Peloquin, R.A.; Hawley, K.A.

    1986-11-01

    The mHRS/HRS software package was developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Department of Energy (DOE) to provide a uniform method for DOE facilities to use in performing their Conservation Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Phase I Modified Hazard Ranking System or Hazard Ranking System evaluations. The program is designed to remove the tedium and potential for error associated with the performing of hand calculations and the interpreting of information on tables and in reference books when performing an evaluation. The software package is designed to operate on a microcomputer (IBM PC, PC/XT, or PC/AT, or a compatible system) using either a dual floppy disk drive or a hard disk storage system. It is written in the dBASE III language and operates using the dBASE III system. Although the mHRS/HRS software package was developed for use at DOE facilities, it has direct applicability to the performing of CERCLA Phase I evaluations for any facility contaminated by hazardous waste. The software can perform evaluations using either the modified hazard ranking system methodology developed by DOE/PNL, the hazard ranking system methodology developed by EPA/MITRE Corp., or a combination of the two. This document is a companion manual to the mHRS/HRS user manual. It is intended for the programmer who must maintain the software package and for those interested in the computer implementation. This manual documents the system logic, computer programs, and data files that comprise the package. Hardware and software implementation requirements are discussed. In addition, hand calculations of three sample situations (problems) with associated computer runs used for the verification of program calculations are included.

  18. Modified Hazard Ranking System/Hazard Ranking System for sites with mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes: Software documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, R.D.; Peloquin, R.A.; Hawley, K.A.

    1986-11-01

    The mHRS/HRS software package was developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Department of Energy (DOE) to provide a uniform method for DOE facilities to use in performing their Conservation Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Phase I Modified Hazard Ranking System or Hazard Ranking System evaluations. The program is designed to remove the tedium and potential for error associated with the performing of hand calculations and the interpreting of information on tables and in reference books when performing an evaluation. The software package is designed to operate on a microcomputer (IBM PC, PC/XT, or PC/AT, or a compatible system) using either a dual floppy disk drive or a hard disk storage system. It is written in the dBASE III language and operates using the dBASE III system. Although the mHRS/HRS software package was developed for use at DOE facilities, it has direct applicability to the performing of CERCLA Phase I evaluations for any facility contaminated by hazardous waste. The software can perform evaluations using either the modified hazard ranking system methodology developed by DOE/PNL, the hazard ranking system methodology developed by EPA/MITRE Corp., or a combination of the two. This document is a companion manual to the mHRS/HRS user manual. It is intended for the programmer who must maintain the software package and for those interested in the computer implementation. This manual documents the system logic, computer programs, and data files that comprise the package. Hardware and software implementation requirements are discussed. In addition, hand calculations of three sample situations (problems) with associated computer runs used for the verification of program calculations are included

  19. Augmenting the logrank test in the design of clinical trials in which non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect may be anticipated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Royston

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed assuming proportional hazards (PH of the treatment effect. The sample size calculation is based on a logrank test. However, non-proportional hazards are increasingly common. At analysis, the estimated hazards ratio with a confidence interval is usually presented. The estimate is often obtained from a Cox PH model with treatment as a covariate. If non-proportional hazards are present, the logrank and equivalent Cox tests may lose power. To safeguard power, we previously suggested a ‘joint test’ combining the Cox test with a test of non-proportional hazards. Unfortunately, a larger sample size is needed to preserve power under PH. Here, we describe a novel test that unites the Cox test with a permutation test based on restricted mean survival time. Methods We propose a combined hypothesis test based on a permutation test of the difference in restricted mean survival time across time. The test involves the minimum of the Cox and permutation test P-values. We approximate its null distribution and correct it for correlation between the two P-values. Using extensive simulations, we assess the type 1 error and power of the combined test under several scenarios and compare with other tests. We investigate powering a trial using the combined test. Results The type 1 error of the combined test is close to nominal. Power under proportional hazards is slightly lower than for the Cox test. Enhanced power is available when the treatment difference shows an ‘early effect’, an initial separation of survival curves which diminishes over time. The power is reduced under a ‘late effect’, when little or no difference in survival curves is seen for an initial period and then a late separation occurs. We propose a method of powering a trial using the combined test. The ‘insurance premium’ offered by the combined test to safeguard power under non

  20. 14 CFR 437.29 - Hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Hazard analysis. 437.29 Section 437.29... Documentation § 437.29 Hazard analysis. (a) An applicant must perform a hazard analysis that complies with § 437.55(a). (b) An applicant must provide to the FAA all the results of each step of the hazard analysis...

  1. The California Hazards Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

  2. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

    2017-09-01

    We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

  3. Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Kevin; Ullah, Shahid; Parolai, Stefano; Walker, Richard; Pittore, Massimiliano; Free, Matthew; Fourniadis, Yannis; Villiani, Manuela; Sousa, Luis; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    As part of a seismic risk study sponsored by the World Bank, a revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic has been produced, using the OpenQuake-engine developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). In this project, an earthquake catalogue spanning a period from 250 BCE to 2014 was compiled and processed through spatial and temporal declustering tools. The territory of the Kyrgyz Republic was divided into 31 area sources defined based on local seismicity, including a total area covering 200 km from the border. The results are presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). In addition, macroseismic intensity estimates, making use of recent intensity prediction equations, were also provided, given that this measure is still widely used in Central Asia. In order to accommodate the associated epistemic uncertainty, three ground motion prediction equations were used in a logic tree structure. A set of representative earthquake scenarios were further identified based on historical data and the nature of the considered faults. The resulting hazard map, as expected, follows the country's seismicity, with the highest levels of hazard in the northeast, south and southwest of the country, with an elevated part around the centre. When considering PGA, the hazard is slightly greater for major urban centres than in previous works (e.g., Abdrakhmatov et al., 2003), although the macroseismic intensity estimates are less than previous studies, e.g., Ulomov (1999). For the scenario assessments, the examples that most affect the urban centres assessed are the Issyk Ata fault (in particular for Bishkek), the Chilik and Kemin faults (in particular Balykchy and Karakol), the Ferghana Valley fault system (in particular Osh, Jalah-Abad and Uzgen), the Oinik Djar fault (Naryn) and the central and western Talas-Ferghanafaukt (Talas). Finally, while site effects (in particular, those dependent on the upper-most geological structure) have an obvious effect on the

  4. Uncertainty on shallow landslide hazard assessment: from field data to hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trefolini, Emanuele; Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Eduardo; Broggi, Matteo; Disperati, Leonardo; Le Tuan, Hai

    2015-04-01

    Shallow landsliding that involve Hillslope Deposits (HD), the surficial soil that cover the bedrock, is an important process of erosion, transport and deposition of sediment along hillslopes. Despite Shallow landslides generally mobilize relatively small volume of material, they represent the most hazardous factor in mountain regions due to their high velocity and the common absence of warning signs. Moreover, increasing urbanization and likely climate change make shallow landslides a source of widespread risk, therefore the interest of scientific community about this process grown in the last three decades. One of the main aims of research projects involved on this topic, is to perform robust shallow landslides hazard assessment for wide areas (regional assessment), in order to support sustainable spatial planning. Currently, three main methodologies may be implemented to assess regional shallow landslides hazard: expert evaluation, probabilistic (or data mining) methods and physical models based methods. The aim of this work is evaluate the uncertainty of shallow landslides hazard assessment based on physical models taking into account spatial variables such as: geotechnical and hydrogeologic parameters as well as hillslope morphometry. To achieve this goal a wide dataset of geotechnical properties (shear strength, permeability, depth and unit weight) of HD was gathered by integrating field survey, in situ and laboratory tests. This spatial database was collected from a study area of about 350 km2 including different bedrock lithotypes and geomorphological features. The uncertainty associated to each step of the hazard assessment process (e.g. field data collection, regionalization of site specific information and numerical modelling of hillslope stability) was carefully characterized. The most appropriate probability density function (PDF) was chosen for each numerical variable and we assessed the uncertainty propagation on HD strength parameters obtained by

  5. Occupational, social, and relationship hazards and psychological distress among low-income workers: implications of the 'inverse hazard law'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Nancy; Kaddour, Afamia; Koenen, Karestan; Kosheleva, Anna; Chen, Jarvis T; Waterman, Pamela D; Barbeau, Elizabeth M

    2011-03-01

    Few studies have simultaneously included exposure information on occupational hazards, relationship hazards (eg, intimate partner violence) and social hazards (eg, poverty and racial discrimination), especially among low-income multiracial/ethnic populations. A cross-sectional study (2003-2004) of 1202 workers employed at 14 worksites in the greater Boston area of Massachusetts investigated the independent and joint association of occupational, social and relationship hazards with psychological distress (K6 scale). Among this low-income cohort (45% were below the US poverty line), exposure to occupational, social and relationship hazards, per the 'inverse hazard law,' was high: 82% exposed to at least one occupational hazard, 79% to at least one social hazard, and 32% of men and 34% of women, respectively, stated they had been the perpetrator or target of intimate partner violence (IPV). Fully 15.4% had clinically significant psychological distress scores (K6 score ≥ 13). All three types of hazards, and also poverty, were independently associated with increased risk of psychological distress. In models including all three hazards, however, significant associations with psychological distress occurred among men and women for workplace abuse and high exposure to racial discrimination only; among men, for IPV; and among women, for high exposure to occupational hazards, poverty and smoking. Reckoning with the joint and embodied reality of diverse types of hazards involving how people live and work is necessary for understanding determinants of health status.

  6. Occupational health hazards in veterinary medicine: Zoonoses and other biological hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl

    2012-01-01

    This study describes biological hazards reported by veterinarians working in western Canada obtained through a self-administered mailed questionnaire. The potential occupational hazards included as biological hazards were zoonotic disease events, exposure to rabies, injuries due to bites and scratches, and allergies. Only 16.7% (136/812) of responding veterinarians reported the occurrence of a zoonosis or exposure to rabies in the past 5 years; the most commonly reported event was ringworm. Most bites and scratches (86%) described by 586 veterinarians involved encounters with cats; 81% of the resulting 163 infections were due to cat bites or scratches. Approximately 38% of participants reported developing an allergy during their career, with 41% of the affected individuals altering the way they practiced in response to their allergy. PMID:22851775

  7. There's Life in Hazard Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary Torsello; Toni McLellan

    The goals of hazard tree management programs are to maximize public safety and maintain a healthy sustainable tree resource. Although hazard tree management frequently targets removal of trees or parts of trees that attract wildlife, it can take into account a diversity of tree values. With just a little extra planning, hazard tree management can be highly beneficial...

  8. Application of Gumbel I and Monte Carlo methods to assess seismic hazard in and around Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Khaista; Burton, Paul W.; Weatherill, Graeme A.

    2018-05-01

    A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N-39° N; 59° E-80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.

  9. Dietary sodium to potassium ratio and the incidence of hypertension and cardiovascular disease: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmiran, Parvin; Bahadoran, Zahra; Nazeri, Pantea; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2018-01-30

    There is an interaction between dietary sodium/potassium intake in the pathogenesis of hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate the association of dietary sodium to potassium (Na/K) ratio and the risk of HTN and CVD in a general population of Iranian adults. In this prospective cohort study, adults men and women with complete baseline data were selected from among participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed up for 6.3 years for incidence of HTN and CVD outcomes. Dietary sodium and potassium were assessed using a valid and reliable 168-item food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary sodium, potassium and their ratio and risk of outcomes. During the study follow-up, 291 (15.1%) and 79 (5.0%) new cases of HTN and CVD were identified, respectively. No significant association was observed between usual intakes of sodium, potassium and dietary Na/K ratio with the incidence of HTN. There was no significant association between dietary intakes of sodium and potassium per se and the risk of CVD, whereas when dietary sodium to potassium ratio was considered as exposure in the fully-adjusted Cox regression model, and participants in the highest compared to lowest tertile had a significantly increased risk of CVD (HR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.16-4.14). Our findings suggest that high dietary Na/K ratio could contribute to increased risk of CVD events.

  10. Highly efficient periodically poled KTP-isomorphs with large apertures and extreme domain aspect-ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canalias, Carlota; Zukauskas, Andrius; Tjörnhamman, Staffan; Viotti, Anne-Lise; Pasiskevicius, Valdas; Laurell, Fredrik

    2018-02-01

    Since the early 1990's, a substantial effort has been devoted to the development of quasi-phased-matched (QPM) nonlinear devices, not only in ferroelectric oxides like LiNbO3, LiTaO3 and KTiOPO4 (KTP), but also in semiconductors as GaAs, and GaP. The technology to implement QPM structures in ferroelectric oxides has by now matured enough to satisfy the most basic frequency-conversion schemes without substantial modification of the poling procedures. Here, we present a qualitative leap in periodic poling techniques that allows us to demonstrate devices and frequency conversion schemes that were deemed unfeasible just a few years ago. Thanks to our short-pulse poling and coercive-field engineering techniques, we are able to demonstrate large aperture (5 mm) periodically poled Rb-doped KTP devices with a highly-uniform conversion efficiency over the whole aperture. These devices allow parametric conversion with energies larger than 60 mJ. Moreover, by employing our coercive-field engineering technique we fabricate highlyefficient sub-µm periodically poled devices, with periodicities as short as 500 nm, uniform over 1 mm-thick crystals, which allow us to realize mirrorless optical parametric oscillators with counter-propagating signal and idler waves. These novel devices present unique spectral and tuning properties, superior to those of conventional OPOs. Furthermore, our techniques are compatible with KTA, a KTP isomorph with extended transparency in the mid-IR range. We demonstrate that our highly-efficient PPKTA is superior both for mid-IR and for green light generation - as a result of improved transmission properties in the visible range. Our KTP-isomorph poling techniques leading to highly-efficient QPM devices will be presented. Their optical performance and attractive damage thresholds will be discussed.

  11. Microzonation of Seismic Hazard Potential in Taipei, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K. S.; Lin, Y. P.

    2017-12-01

    The island of Taiwan lies at the boundary between the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasia plate. Accordingly, the majority of seismic energy release near Taiwan originates from the two subduction zones. It is therefore not surprising that Taiwan has repeatedly been struck by large earthquakes such as 1986 Hualien earthquake, 1999 Chi Chi and 2002 Hualien earthquake. Microzonation of seismic hazard potential becomes necessary in Taipei City for the Central Geological Survey announced the Sanchiao active fault as Category II. In this study, a catalog of more than 2000 shallow earthquakes occurred from 1900 to 2015 with Mw magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 8.2, and 11 disastrous earthquakes occurred from 1683-1899, as well as Sanchiao active fault in the vicinity are used to estimate the seismic hazard potential in Taipei City for seismic microzonation. Furthermore, the probabilities of seismic intensity exceeding CWB intensity 5, 6, 7 and MMI VI, VII, VIII in 10, 30, and 50-year periods in the above areas are also analyzed for the seismic microzonation. Finally, by comparing with the seismic zoning map of Taiwan in current building code that was revised after 921 earthquakes, Results of this study will show which areas with higher earthquake hazard potential in Taipei City. They provide a valuable database for the seismic design of critical facilities. It will help mitigate Taipei City earthquake disaster loss in the future, as well as provide critical information for emergency response plans.

  12. Effect of systematic ergonomic hazard identification and control implementation on musculoskeletal disorder and injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantley, Linda F; Taiwo, Oyebode A; Galusha, Deron; Barbour, Russell; Slade, Martin D; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Cullen, Mark R

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to examine the effect of an ergonomic hazard control (HC) initiative, undertaken as part of a company ergonomics standard, on worker injury risk. Using the company's ergonomic hazards database to identify jobs with and without ergonomic HC implementation and linking to individual job and injury histories, injury risk among person-jobs with HC implementation (the HC group) was compared to those without HC (NoHC group) using random coefficient models. Further analysis of the HC group was conducted to determine the effect of additional ergonomic hazards controlled on injury risk. Among 123 jobs at 17 plant locations, 347 ergonomic hazards were quantitatively identified during the study period. HC were implemented for 204 quantified ergonomic hazards in 84 jobs, impacting 10 385 persons (12 967 person-jobs). No HC were implemented for quantified ergonomic hazards in the remaining 39 jobs affecting 4155 persons (5046 person-jobs). Adjusting for age, sex, plant origin, and year to control for any temporal trend in injury risk, the relative risk (RR) for musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) was 0.85 and the RR for any injury or MSD was 0.92 in the HC compared to NoHC group. Among the HC group, each ergonomic hazard controlled was associated with risk reduction for MSD and acute injury outcomes (RR 0.93). Systematic ergonomic HC through participatory ergonomics, as part of a mandatory company ergonomics standard, is associated with MSD and injury risk reduction among workers in jobs with HC implemented.

  13. The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, C. R.

    1998-09-01

    The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

  14. Holocene volcanic geology, volcanic hazard, and risk on Taveuni, Fiji

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronin, S.J.; Neall, V.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Holocene volcanic geology of Taveuni has been mapped in order to produce a volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the island. Taveuni is the third-largest island of the Fiji group and home to 14,500 people. At least cubic km 2.7 of olivine-alkali-basalt magma was erupted from over 100 events throughout the Holocene. Vents are concentrated along a northeast-striking rift zone that is parallel to other regional structural trends. There is an overall trend of younging southward along the rift. Holocene lavas and tephras are grouped within six newly defined eruptive periods, established on a basis of radiocarbon dating. Within these periods, 14 tephra layers, useful as local marker horizons, are recognised. At least 58% of Holocene eruptions produced lava flows, while almost all produced some tephra. Individual eruption event volumes ranged between 0.001 and cubic km 0.20 (dense rock equivalent). Many eruptions involved at least some phases of phreatic and/or phreato-magmatic activity, although dominant hydrovolcanic activity was limited to only a few events. A volcanic hazard map is presented, based on the Holocene geology map and statistical analyses of eruption recurrence. The highest levels of ground-based and near-vent hazards are concentrated along the southern portion of the island's rift axis, with the paths of initial lava flows predicted from present topography. Tephra fall hazards are based on eruption parameters interpreted from mapped Holocene tephra layers. Hawaiian explosive-style eruptions appear to be a dominant eruptive process, with prevailing low-level (<3 km) southeasterly winds dispersing most tephra to the northwestern quadrant. Vulnerable elements (population centres, infrastructure, and economy) on Taveuni have been considered in deriving a volcanic risk assessment for the island. A number of infrastructural and subdivision developments are either under way or planned for the island, driven by its highly fertile soils and availability of

  15. Child-to-Teacher Ratio and Day Care Teacher Sickeness Absenteeism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gørtz, Mette; Andersson, Elvira

    2014-01-01

    time periods, 2002–2003 and 2005–2006, by using generalized method of moments with lagged levels of the child-to-teacher ratio as instrument. Our estimation results are somewhat mixed. Generally, the results indicate that the child-to-teacher ratio is positively related to short-term sickness absence...

  16. 29 CFR 1917.25 - Fumigants, pesticides, insecticides and hazardous preservatives (see also § 1917.2 Hazardous...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 7 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fumigants, pesticides, insecticides and hazardous..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (CONTINUED) MARINE TERMINALS Marine Terminal Operations § 1917.25 Fumigants, pesticides... fumigants, pesticides or hazardous preservatives have created a hazardous atmosphere. These signs shall note...

  17. Decay hazard (Scheffer) index values calculated from 1971-2000 climate normal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles G. Carll

    2009-01-01

    Climate index values for estimating decay hazard to wood exposed outdoors above ground (commonly known as Scheffer index values) were calculated for 280 locations in the United States (270 locations in the conterminous United States) using the most current climate normal data available from the National Climatic Data Center. These were data for the period 1971–2000. In...

  18. Excess Mortality in Treated and Untreated Hyperthyroidism Is Related to Cumulative Periods of Low Serum TSH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillevang-Johansen, Mads; Abrahamsen, Bo; Jørgensen, Henrik Løvendahl; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative time-dependent excess mortality in hyperthyroid patients has been suggested. However, the effect of antithyroid treatment on mortality, especially in subclinical hyperthyroidism, remains unclarified. We investigated the association between hyperthyroidism and mortality in both treated and untreated hyperthyroid individuals. Register-based cohort study of 235,547 individuals who had at least one serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) measurement in the period 1995 to 2011 (7.3 years median follow-up). Hyperthyroidism was defined as at least two measurements of low serum TSH. Mortality rates for treated and untreated hyperthyroid subjects compared with euthyroid controls were calculated using multivariate Cox regression analyses, controlling for age, sex, and comorbidities. Cumulative periods of decreased serum TSH were analyzed as a time-dependent covariate. Hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was increased in untreated [1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12 to 1.37; P hyperthyroid patients. When including cumulative periods of TSH in the Cox regression analyses, HR for mortality per every 6 months of decreased TSH was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.13; P hyperthyroid patients (n = 1137) and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.15; P hyperthyroidism, respectively. Mortality is increased in hyperthyroidism. Cumulative periods of decreased TSH increased mortality in both treated and untreated hyperthyroidism, implying that excess mortality may not be driven by lack of therapy, but rather inability to keep patients euthyroid. Meticulous follow-up during treatment to maintain biochemical euthyroidism may be warranted. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

  19. Hazardous Waste Manifest System

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s hazardous waste manifest system is designed to track hazardous waste from the time it leaves the generator facility where it was produced, until it reaches the off-site waste management facility that will store, treat, or dispose of the waste.

  20. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  1. The ATP/DNA Ratio Is a Better Indicator of Islet Cell Viability Than the ADP/ATP Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suszynski, T.M.; Wildey, G.M.; Falde, E.J.; Cline, G.W.; Maynard, K. Stewart; Ko, N.; Sotiris, J.; Naji, A.; Hering, B.J.; Papas, K.K.

    2009-01-01

    Real-time, accurate assessment of islet viability is critical for avoiding transplantation of nontherapeutic preparations. Measurements of the intracellular ADP/ATP ratio have been recently proposed as useful prospective estimates of islet cell viability and potency. However, dead cells may be rapidly depleted of both ATP and ADP, which would render the ratio incapable of accounting for dead cells. Since the DNA of dead cells is expected to remain stable over prolonged periods of time (days), we hypothesized that use of the ATP/DNA ratio would take into account dead cells and may be a better indicator of islet cell viability than the ADP/ATP ratio. We tested this hypothesis using mixtures of healthy and lethally heat-treated (HT) rat insulinoma cells and human islets. Measurements of ATP/DNA and ADP/ATP from the known mixtures of healthy and HT cells and islets were used to evaluate how well these parameters correlated with viability. The results indicated that ATP and ADP were rapidly (within 1 hour) depleted in HT cells. The fraction of HT cells in a mixture correlated linearly with the ATP/DNA ratio, whereas the ADP/ADP ratio was highly scattered, remaining effectively unchanged. Despite similar limitations in both ADP/ADP and ATP/DNA ratios, in that ATP levels may fluctuate significantly and reversibly with metabolic stress, the results indicated that ATP/DNA was a better measure of islet viability than the ADP/ATP ratio. PMID:18374063

  2. Association between stricter alcohol advertising regulations and lower hazardous drinking across European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosque-Prous, Marina; Espelt, Albert; Guitart, Anna M; Bartroli, Montserrat; Villalbí, Joan R; Brugal, M Teresa

    2014-10-01

    To analyse the association between alcohol advertising restrictions and the prevalence of hazardous drinking among people aged 50-64 years in 16 European countries, taking into account both individual and contextual-level factors (alcohol taxation, availability, etc.). Cross-sectional study based on SHARE project surveys. A total of 27 773 subjects, aged 50-64 years, from 16 European countries who participated in wave 4 of the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) project. We estimated the prevalence of hazardous drinking (through adaptation of the SHARE questions to the scheme used by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption (AUDIT-C) for each country. To determine whether the degree of advertising restrictions was associated with prevalence of hazardous drinking, we fitted robust variance multi-level Poisson models, adjusting for various individual and contextual variables. Prevalence ratios (PR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained. The observed prevalence of hazardous drinking was 24.1%, varying by sex and country. Countries with greater advertising restrictions had lower prevalence of hazardous drinking: 30.6% (95% CI = 29.3-31.8) in countries with no restrictions, 20.3% (95% CI = 19.3-21.2) in countries with some restrictions and 14.4% (95% CI = 11.9-16.8) in those with greatest restrictions. The PR found (with respect to countries with greatest restrictions) were 1.36 (95% CI = 0.90-2.06) for countries with some restrictions and 1.95 (95% CI = 1.31-2.91) for those with no advertising restrictions. The extent of advertising restrictions in European countries is associated inversely with prevalence of hazardous drinking in people aged 50-64 years. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  3. Hazard Detection Software for Lunar Landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huertas, Andres; Johnson, Andrew E.; Werner, Robert A.; Montgomery, James F.

    2011-01-01

    The Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) Project is developing a system for safe and precise manned lunar landing that involves novel sensors, but also specific algorithms. ALHAT has selected imaging LIDAR (light detection and ranging) as the sensing modality for onboard hazard detection because imaging LIDARs can rapidly generate direct measurements of the lunar surface elevation from high altitude. Then, starting with the LIDAR-based Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) algorithm developed for Mars Landing, JPL has developed a mature set of HDA software for the manned lunar landing problem. Landing hazards exist everywhere on the Moon, and many of the more desirable landing sites are near the most hazardous terrain, so HDA is needed to autonomously and safely land payloads over much of the lunar surface. The HDA requirements used in the ALHAT project are to detect hazards that are 0.3 m tall or higher and slopes that are 5 or greater. Steep slopes, rocks, cliffs, and gullies are all hazards for landing and, by computing the local slope and roughness in an elevation map, all of these hazards can be detected. The algorithm in this innovation is used to measure slope and roughness hazards. In addition to detecting these hazards, the HDA capability also is able to find a safe landing site free of these hazards for a lunar lander with diameter .15 m over most of the lunar surface. This software includes an implementation of the HDA algorithm, software for generating simulated lunar terrain maps for testing, hazard detection performance analysis tools, and associated documentation. The HDA software has been deployed to Langley Research Center and integrated into the POST II Monte Carlo simulation environment. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations determine the required ground spacing between LIDAR samples (ground sample distances) and the noise on the LIDAR range measurement. This simulation has also been used to determine the effect of

  4. Prognostic impact of the pretreatment aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase ratio in patients treated with first-line systemic tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy for metastatic renal cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Minyong; Yu, Jiwoong; Sung, Hyun Hwan; Jeon, Hwang Gyun; Jeong, Byong Chang; Park, Se Hoon; Jeon, Seong Soo; Lee, Hyun Moo; Choi, Han Yong; Seo, Seong Il

    2018-05-13

    To examine the prognostic role of the pretreatment aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase or De Ritis ratio in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma receiving first-line systemic tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy. We retrospectively searched the medical records of 579 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who visited Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea, from January 2001 through August 2016. After excluding 210 patients, we analyzed 360 patients who received first-line tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy. Cancer-specific survival and overall survival were defined as the primary and secondary end-points, respectively. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent prognosticators of survival outcomes. The overall population was divided into two groups according to the pretreatment De Ritis ratio as an optimal cut-off value of 1.2, which was determined by a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Patients with a higher pretreatment De Ritis ratio (≥1.2) had worse cancer-specific survival and overall survival outcomes, compared with those with a lower De Ritis ratio (<1.2). Notably, a higher De Ritis ratio (≥1.2) was found to be an independent predictor of both cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.30) and overall survival outcomes (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.39), along with male sex, multiple metastasis (≥2), non-clear cell histology, advanced pT stage (≥3), previous metastasectomy and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center risk classification. Our findings show that the pretreatment De Ritis ratio can provide valuable information about the survival outcomes of metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients receiving first-line tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

  5. Quasi-isodynamic configuration with large number of periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafranov, V.D.; Isaev, M.Yu.; Mikhailov, M.I.; Subbotin, A.A.; Cooper, W.A.; Kalyuzhnyj, V.N.; Kasilov, S.V.; Nemov, V.V.; Kernbichler, W.; Nuehrenberg, C.; Nuehrenberg, J.; Zille, R.

    2005-01-01

    It has been previously reported that quasi-isodynamic (qi) stellarators with poloidal direction of the contours of B on magnetic surface can exhibit very good fast- particle collisionless confinement. In addition, approaching the quasi-isodynamicity condition leads to diminished neoclassical transport and small bootstrap current. The calculations of local-mode stability show that there is a tendency toward an increasing beta limit with increasing number of periods. The consideration of the quasi-helically symmetric systems has demonstrated that with increasing aspect ratio (and number of periods) the optimized configuration approaches the straight symmetric counterpart, for which the optimal parameters and highest beta values were found by optimization of the boundary magnetic surface cross-section. The qi system considered here with zero net toroidal current do not have a symmetric analogue in the limit of large aspect ratio and finite rotational transform. Thus, it is not clear whether some invariant structure of the configuration period exists in the limit of negligible toroidal effect and what are the best possible parameters for it. In the present paper the results of an optimization of the configuration with N = 12 number of periods are presented. Such properties as fast-particle confinement, effective ripple, structural factor of bootstrap current and MHD stability are considered. It is shown that MHD stability limit here is larger than in configurations with smaller number of periods considered earlier. Nevertheless, the toroidal effect in this configuration is still significant so that a simple increase of the number of periods and proportional growth of aspect ratio do not conserve favourable neoclassical transport and ideal local-mode stability properties. (author)

  6. Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Preliminary Hazard Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-08-31

    A preliminary hazard assessment was completed during February 2015 to evaluate the conceptual design of the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. This analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public.

  7. Final hazard classification for N basin water filtration and sediment relocation operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pisarcik, D.J.; Kretzschmar, S.P.

    1996-02-01

    This document provides an auditable safety analysis and hazard classification for the filtration of basin water and the relocation of 105-N basin solids to the North Cask Pit within the basin complex. This report assesses the operation of the Water Filtration System and the Remotely Operated Sediment Extraction Equipment (ROSEE). These activities have an activity hazard classification of radiological. Inventories of potentially releasable nonradioactive hazardous materials are far below the reportable quantities of 40 CFR 302. No controls are required to maintain the releasable inventories of these materials below the reportable quantities. Descriptive material is included to provide a general understanding of the water filtration and sediment relocation processes. All equipment will be operated as described in work instructions and/or applicable procedures. Special controls associated with these activities are as follows: (1) A leak inspection of the ROSEE system shall be performed at least once every 5-hour period of sediment relocation operation. (2) A berm must be in place around the North Cask Pit to redirect a potential abovewater ROSEE system leak back to the basin

  8. Preliminary hazards analysis -- vitrification process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coordes, D.; Ruggieri, M.; Russell, J.; TenBrook, W.; Yimbo, P.

    1994-06-01

    This paper presents a Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) for mixed waste vitrification by joule heating. The purpose of performing a PHA is to establish an initial hazard categorization for a DOE nuclear facility and to identify those processes and structures which may have an impact on or be important to safety. The PHA is typically performed during and provides input to project conceptual design. The PHA is then followed by a Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) performed during Title 1 and 2 design. The PSAR then leads to performance of the Final Safety Analysis Report performed during the facility's construction and testing. It should be completed before routine operation of the facility commences. This PHA addresses the first four chapters of the safety analysis process, in accordance with the requirements of DOE Safety Guidelines in SG 830.110. The hazards associated with vitrification processes are evaluated using standard safety analysis methods which include: identification of credible potential hazardous energy sources; identification of preventative features of the facility or system; identification of mitigative features; and analyses of credible hazards. Maximal facility inventories of radioactive and hazardous materials are postulated to evaluate worst case accident consequences. These inventories were based on DOE-STD-1027-92 guidance and the surrogate waste streams defined by Mayberry, et al. Radiological assessments indicate that a facility, depending on the radioactive material inventory, may be an exempt, Category 3, or Category 2 facility. The calculated impacts would result in no significant impact to offsite personnel or the environment. Hazardous materials assessment indicates that a Mixed Waste Vitrification facility will be a Low Hazard facility having minimal impacts to offsite personnel and the environment

  9. Preliminary hazards analysis -- vitrification process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coordes, D.; Ruggieri, M.; Russell, J.; TenBrook, W.; Yimbo, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Pleasanton, CA (United States)

    1994-06-01

    This paper presents a Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) for mixed waste vitrification by joule heating. The purpose of performing a PHA is to establish an initial hazard categorization for a DOE nuclear facility and to identify those processes and structures which may have an impact on or be important to safety. The PHA is typically performed during and provides input to project conceptual design. The PHA is then followed by a Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) performed during Title 1 and 2 design. The PSAR then leads to performance of the Final Safety Analysis Report performed during the facility`s construction and testing. It should be completed before routine operation of the facility commences. This PHA addresses the first four chapters of the safety analysis process, in accordance with the requirements of DOE Safety Guidelines in SG 830.110. The hazards associated with vitrification processes are evaluated using standard safety analysis methods which include: identification of credible potential hazardous energy sources; identification of preventative features of the facility or system; identification of mitigative features; and analyses of credible hazards. Maximal facility inventories of radioactive and hazardous materials are postulated to evaluate worst case accident consequences. These inventories were based on DOE-STD-1027-92 guidance and the surrogate waste streams defined by Mayberry, et al. Radiological assessments indicate that a facility, depending on the radioactive material inventory, may be an exempt, Category 3, or Category 2 facility. The calculated impacts would result in no significant impact to offsite personnel or the environment. Hazardous materials assessment indicates that a Mixed Waste Vitrification facility will be a Low Hazard facility having minimal impacts to offsite personnel and the environment.

  10. French people addressing environmental hazards (Eser 2013)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pautard, Eric; Moreau, Sylvain; Bottin, Anne; Kraszewski, Marlene; Fretin, David; Carriere, Celine; Bird, Geoffrey

    2015-07-01

    This publication presents the results of a survey, conducted towards the end of 2013, of 4,700 people resident in metropolitan France and its 'departements d'outre-mer' (DOM - overseas departments). The aim of the survey was to ascertain how French people perceive natural hazards (flooding, earthquakes, climate events, cyclones, etc.) and technological hazards (industrial and nuclear) to which they may be exposed. Questioned as to whether or not they felt exposed to one or several environmental hazards in their place of residence, French people's answers varied somewhat depending on the hazard invoked and place of residence. A strong feeling of exposure was expressed most frequently in the DOM. Respondents in both metropolitan France and DOM think that atmospheric pollution is a significant hazard (56%) but their opinions diverge partially where other hazards are concerned. Natural hazards (earthquakes and flooding) are cited most frequently overseas, whereas technological hazards (industrial and nuclear) are primarily metropolitan concerns. Climate change related hazards are seen as a threat by 56% of overseas respondents and by 42% in the mother country. In general, one-third of French people think that they are exposed to more than two environmental hazards. Unlike the younger members of the population, only one-quarter of respondents of 65 years of age or over felt exposed to three or more hazards. From municipal level databases providing information on exposure to flooding and technological and climate-related hazards, the survey indicates that a large majority of respondents living in these municipalities either do not feel at risk from existing hazards or feel that the risk is low (see figure below). It is in the area of climate-related hazards that awareness of threat seems to be highest in France, and more particularly in the DOM. In the face of the flooding that could affect them, overseas populations are more aware of this natural

  11. Runoff inundation hazard cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineux, N.; Degré, A.

    2012-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered from more than hundred major inundations, responsible for some 700 deaths, for the moving of about half a million of people and the economic losses of at least 25 billions Euros covered by the insurance policies. Within this context, EU launched the 2007/60/CE directive. The inundations are natural phenomenon. They cannot be avoided. Nevertheless this directive permits to better evaluate the risks and to coordinate the management measures taken at member states level. In most countries, inundation maps only include rivers' overflowing. In Wallonia, overland flows and mudflows also cause huge damages, and must be included in the flood hazard map. Indeed, the cleaning operations for a village can lead to an estimated cost of 11 000 €. Average construction cost of retention dams to control off-site damage caused by floods and muddy flows was valued at 380 000€, and yearly dredging costs associated with these retention ponds at 15 000€. For a small city for which a study was done in a more specific way (Gembloux), the mean annual cost for the damages that can generate the runoff is about 20 000€. This cost consists of the physical damages caused to the real estate and movable properties of the residents as well as the emergency operations of the firemen and the city. On top of damages to public infrastructure (clogging of trenches, silting up of retention ponds) and to private property by muddy flows, runoff generates a significant loss of arable land. Yet, the soil resource is not an unlimited commodity. Moreover, sediments' transfer to watercourses alters their physical and chemical quality. And that is not to mention the increased psychological stress for people. But to map overland flood and mud flow hazard is a real challenge. This poster will present the methodology used to in Wallonia. The methodology is based on 3 project rainfalls: 25, 50 and 100 years return period (consistency with the cartography of the

  12. Risk Measure and Early-Warning System of China's Stock Market Based on Price-Earnings Ratio and Price-to-Book Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongda Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the actual situation of China's stock market, this paper proposes a method for measuring the stock market's risk and early-warning methods which are based on price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. The study found that the method of VaR can capture the bigger daily drops in a period, and if the drop is at the periodical top of the index, the probability of a sharp index decline will be very high. It also confirmed that the method is feasible and practical for people to use. In the long run, this method really can send early-warning signals of sharp decline; the warning levels increase as the index rises. The study also found that index will not fall after every warning but will continue going forward because of inertia, particularly during a big trend.

  13. The performance of biological anaerobic filters packed with sludge-fly ash ceramic particles (SFCP) and commercial ceramic particles (CCP) during the restart period: effect of the C/N ratios and filter media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Qinyan; Han, Shuxin; Yue, Min; Gao, Baoyu; Li, Qian; Yu, Hui; Zhao, Yaqin; Qi, Yuanfeng

    2009-11-01

    Two lab-scale upflow biological anaerobic filters (BAF) packed with sludge-fly ash ceramic particles (SFCP) and commercial ceramic particles (CCP) were employed to investigate effects of the C/N ratios and filter media on the BAF performance during the restart period. The results indicated that BAF could be restarted normally after one-month cease. The C/N ratio of 4.0 was the thresholds of nitrate removal and nitrite accumulation. TN removal and phosphate uptake reached the maximum value at the same C/N ratio of 5.5. Ammonia formation was also found and excreted a negative influence on TN removal, especially when higher C/N ratios were applied. Nutrients were mainly degraded within the height of 25 cm from the bottom. In addition, SFCP, as novel filter media manufactured by wastes-dewatered sludge and fly ash, represented a better potential in inhibiting nitrite accumulation, TN removal and phosphate uptake due to their special characteristics in comparison with CCP.

  14. Risk ratios for use in establishing dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, P.E.; Winkler, B.C.

    1980-01-01

    Dose limits for occupational exposure to radiation may be established by comparing the associated mortality risk with apparently accepted levels of industrial mortality risk due to conventional hazards. Average levels of industrial mortality risk rates are frequently quoted and used in such comparisons. However, within particular occupations or industries certain groups of workers will be exposed to higher levels of risk than the average, again an apparently accepted situation. A study has been made of the ratios of maximum to average industrial mortality risk currently experienced in some South African industries. Such a ratio may be used to assess the acceptability of maximum individual-to-average exposures in particular groups of exposed individuals. (author)

  15. TREATMENT OF METAL-LADEN HAZARDOUS WASTES WITH ADVANCED CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGY BY-PRODUCTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James T. Cobb, Jr.; Ronald D. Neufeld; Jana Agostini

    1999-06-01

    This sixteenth quarterly report describes work done during the sixteenth three-month period of the University of Pittsburgh's project on the ''Treatment of Metal-Laden Hazardous Wastes with Advanced Clean Coal Technology By-Products.'' This report describes the activities of the project team during the reporting period. The principal work has focused upon new laboratory evaluation of samples from Phase 1, discussions with MAX Environmental Technologies, Inc., on the field work of Phase 2, giving a presentation, and making and responding to several outside contacts.

  16. Treatment of metal-laden hazardous wastes with advanced Clean Coal Technology by-products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James T. Cobb, Jr.; Ronald D. Neufeld; Jana Agostini

    1999-04-12

    This twelfth quarterly report describes work done during the twelfth three-month period of the University of Pittsburgh's project on the ``Treatment of Metal-Laden Hazardous Wastes with Advanced Clean Coal Technology By-Products.'' This report describes the activities of the project team during the reporting period. The principal work has focused upon new laboratory evaluation of samples from Phase 1, discussions with MAX Environmental Technologies, Inc., on the field work of Phase 2, preparing and giving presentations, and making and responding to a number of outside contacts.

  17. TREATMENT OF METAL-LADEN HAZARDOUS WASTES WITH ADVANCED CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGY BY-PRODUCTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James T. Cobb, Jr.; Ronald D. Neufeld; Jana Agostini

    1999-01-01

    This seventeenth quarterly report describes work done during the seventeenth three-month period of the University of Pittsburgh's project on the ''Treatment of Metal-Laden Hazardous Wastes with Advanced Clean Coal Technology By-Products.'' This report describes the activities of the project team during the reporting period. The principal work has focused upon new laboratory evaluation of samples from Phase 1, discussions with MAX Environmental Technologies, Inc., on the field work of Phase 2, giving a presentation, submitting a manuscript and making and responding to one outside contact.

  18. TREATMENT OF METAL-LADEN HAZARDOUS WASTES WITH ADVANCED CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGY BY-PRODUCTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James T. Cobb, Jr.; Ronald D. Neufeld; Jana Agostini

    1999-05-11

    This fifteenth quarterly report describes work done during the fifteenth three-month period of the University of Pittsburgh's project on the ''Treatment of Metal-Laden Hazardous Wastes with Advanced Clean Coal Technology By-Products.'' This report describes the activities of the project team during the reporting period. The principal work has focused upon new laboratory evaluation of samples from Phase 1, discussions with MAX Environmental Technologies, Inc., on the field work of Phase 2, preparing and giving presentations, and making and responding to several outside contacts.

  19. TREATMENT OF METAL-LADEN HAZARDOUS WASTES WITH ADVANCED CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGY BY-PRODUCTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James T. Cobb, Jr.; Ronald D. Neufeld; Jana Agostini

    1999-05-10

    This fourteenth quarterly report describes work done during the fourteenth three-month period of the University of Pittsburgh's project on the ''Treatment of Metal-Laden Hazardous Wastes with Advanced Clean Coal Technology By-Products.'' This report describes the activities of the project team during the reporting period. The principal work has focused upon new laboratory evaluation of samples from Phase 1, discussions with MAX Environmental Technologies, Inc., on the field work of Phase 2, preparing presentations, and making and responding to two outside contacts.

  20. Identification of Aircraft Hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Ashley

    2006-01-01

    Aircraft hazards were determined to be potentially applicable to a repository at Yucca Mountain in ''Monitored Geological Repository External Events Hazards Screening Analysis'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 174235], Section 6.4.1). That determination was conservatively based upon limited knowledge of flight data in the area of concern and upon crash data for aircraft of the type flying near Yucca Mountain. The purpose of this report is to identify specific aircraft hazards that may be applicable to a monitored geologic repository (MGR) at Yucca Mountain, using NUREG-0800, ''Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants'' (NRC 1987 [DIRS 103124], Section 3.5.1.6), as guidance for the inclusion or exclusion of identified aircraft hazards. The intended use of this report is to provide inputs for further screening and analysis of identified aircraft hazards based upon the criteria that apply to Category 1 and Category 2 event sequence analyses as defined in 10 CFR 63.2 [DIRS 176544] (Section 4). The scope of this report includes the evaluation of military, private, and commercial use of airspace in the 100-mile regional setting of the repository at Yucca Mountain with the potential for reducing the regional setting to a more manageable size after consideration of applicable screening criteria (Section 7)

  1. Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

    2010-05-01

    weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were

  2. 75 FR 58346 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste AGENCY: Environmental Protection... Chemical Company-Texas Operations (Eastman) to exclude (or delist) certain solid wastes generated by its Longview, Texas, facility from the lists of hazardous wastes. EPA used the Delisting Risk Assessment...

  3. Identification of cardiometabolic risk: visceral adiposity index versus triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Maciel, Pablo M; Reaven, Gerald M

    2014-02-01

    The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) can identify cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease. The visceral adiposity index is a sex-specific index, in which measurements of body mass index and waist circumference are combined with TG and HDL-C concentrations. The current analysis was initiated to see if the visceral adiposity index would improve the ability of the TG/HDL-C to identify increased cardiometabolic risk and outcome. Cardiometabolic data were obtained in 2003 from 926 apparently healthy individuals, 796 of whom were evaluated in 2012 for evidence of incident cardiovascular disease. The relationship between TG/HDL-C and values for visceral adiposity index was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The relative risks for first cardiovascular event between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C sex-specific cut points, and in the top quartile of visceral adiposity index versus the remaining 3 quartiles, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. TG/HDL-C concentration and visceral adiposity index were highly correlated (r = 0.99) in both men and women. Although more men (133 vs121) and women (73 vs 59) were identified as being at "high risk" by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio, the individual cardiometabolic risk factors were essentially identical with either index used. However, the hazard ratio of developing cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in individuals with an elevated TG/HDL-C, whereas it was not the case when the visceral adiposity index was used to define "high risk." The visceral adiposity index does not identify individuals with an adverse cardiometabolic profile any better than the TG/HDL-C. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Integrating Volcanic Hazard Data in a Systematic Approach to Develop Volcanic Hazard Maps in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan M. Lindsay

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick ‘em Jenny and Ronde/Caille, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia, and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past ~10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that

  5. Log-periodic dipole antenna with low cross-polarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pivnenko, Sergey

    2006-01-01

    In this work, log-periodic antennas with improved cross-polarization level were studied. It was found that some modifications of the traditional design lead to an essential improvement of the co-to-cross polarization ratio up to 40 dB. An improved design of a log-periodic dipole antenna with low...

  6. Using hazard maps to identify and eliminate workplace hazards: a union-led health and safety training program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Joe; Collins, Michele; Devlin, John; Renner, Paul

    2012-01-01

    The Institute for Sustainable Work and Environment and the Utility Workers Union of America worked with a professional evaluator to design, implement, and evaluate the results of a union-led system of safety-based hazard identification program that trained workers to use hazard maps to identify workplace hazards and target them for elimination. The evaluation documented program implementation and impact using data collected from both qualitative interviews and an on-line survey from worker trainers, plant managers, and health and safety staff. Managers and workers reported that not only were many dangerous hazards eliminated as a result of hazard mapping, some of which were long-standing, difficult-to-resolve issues, but the evaluation also documented improved communication between union members and management that both workers and managers agreed resulted in better, more sustainable hazard elimination.

  7. Design studies of low-aspect ratio quasi-omnigenous stellarators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spong, D.A.; Hirshman, S.; Whitson, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    Significant progress has been made in the development of new modest-size compact stellarator devices that could test optimization principles for the design of a more attractive reactor. These are 3 and 4 field period low-aspect-ratio quasi-omnigenous (QO) stellarators based on an optimization method that targets improved confinement, stability, ease of coil design, low-aspect-ratio, and low bootstrap current. (author)

  8. Advancing the citizen scientist's contributions to documenting and understanding natural hazards: a proof of concept for linking crowdsourced and remotely sensed data on landslide hazards in El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, E. R.; Griffin, R.; Markert, K. N.

    2017-12-01

    Scientists, practitioners, policymakers, and citizen groups, share a role in ensuring "that all sectors have access to, understand and can use scientific information for better informed decision-making" (Sendai Framework 2015-2030). When it comes to understanding hazards and exposure, inventories on disaster events are often limited. Thus, there are many opportunities for citizen scientists to engage in improving the collective understanding—and ultimately reduction—of disaster risk. Landslides are very difficult to forecast on spatial and temporal scales meaningful for early warning and evacuation. Heuristic hazard mapping methods are very common in regional hazard zonation and rely on expert knowledge of previous events and local conditions, but they often lack a temporal component. As new data analysis packages are becoming more open and accessible, probabilistic approaches that consider high resolution spatial and temporal dimensions are becoming more common, but this is only possible when rich inventories of landslide events exist. The work presented offers a proof of concept on incorporating crowd-sourced data to improve landslide hazard model performance. Starting with a national inventory of 90 catalogued landslides in El Salvador for a study period of 1998 to 2011, we simulate the addition of over 600 additional crowd-sourced landslide events that would have been identified through human interpretation of high resolution imagery in the Google Earth time slider feature. There is a noticeable improvement in performance statistics between static heuristic hazard models and probabilistic models that incorporate the events identified by the "crowd." Such a dynamic incorporation of crowd-sourced data on hazard events is not so far-fetched. Given the engagement of "local observers" in El Salvador who augment in situ hydro-meteorological measurements, the growing access to Earth observation data to the lay person, and immense interest behind connecting citizen

  9. 16 CFR 1500.5 - Hazardous mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., flammable, sensitizing, or pressure-generating properties of a substance from what is known about its... Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION FEDERAL HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES ACT REGULATIONS HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES AND ARTICLES; ADMINISTRATION AND ENFORCEMENT REGULATIONS § 1500.5 Hazardous mixtures...

  10. Increased standardized incidence ratio of breast cancer in female electronics workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Yi-Ping

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 1994, a hazardous waste site, polluted by the dumping of solvents from a former electronics factory, was discovered in Taoyuan, Taiwan. This subsequently emerged as a serious case of contamination through chlorinated hydrocarbons with suspected occupational cancer. The objective of this study was to determine if there was any increased risk of breast cancer among female workers in a 23-year follow-up period. Methods A total of 63,982 female workers were retrospectively recruited from the database of the Bureau of Labor Insurance (BLI covering the period 1973–1997; the data were then linked with data, up to 2001, from the National Cancer Registry at the Taiwanese Department of Health, from which standardized incidence ratios (SIRs for different types of cancer were calculated as compared to the general population. Results There were a total of 286 cases of breast cancer, and after adjustment for calendar year and age, the SIR was close to 1. When stratified by the year 1974 (the year in which the regulations on solvent use were promulgated, the SIR of the cohort of workers who were first employed prior to 1974 increased to 1.38 (95% confidence interval, 1.11–1.70. No such trend was discernible for workers employed after 1974. When 10 years of employment was considered, there was a further increase in the SIR for breast cancer, to 1.62. Those workers with breast cancer who were first employed prior to 1974 were employed at a younger age and for a longer period. Previous qualitative studies of interviews with the workers, corroborated by inspection records, showed a short-term high exposure to chlorinated alkanes and alkenes, particularly trichloroethylene before 1974. There were no similar findings on other types of cancer. Conclusion Female workers with exposure to trichloroethylene and/or mixture of solvents, first employed prior to 1974, may have an excess risk of breast cancer.

  11. Chemical process hazards analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-02-01

    The Office of Worker Health and Safety (EH-5) under the Assistant Secretary for the Environment, Safety and Health of the US Department (DOE) has published two handbooks for use by DOE contractors managing facilities and processes covered by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Rule for Process Safety Management of Highly Hazardous Chemicals (29 CFR 1910.119), herein referred to as the PSM Rule. The PSM Rule contains an integrated set of chemical process safety management elements designed to prevent chemical releases that can lead to catastrophic fires, explosions, or toxic exposures. The purpose of the two handbooks, ``Process Safety Management for Highly Hazardous Chemicals`` and ``Chemical Process Hazards Analysis,`` is to facilitate implementation of the provisions of the PSM Rule within the DOE. The purpose of this handbook ``Chemical Process Hazards Analysis,`` is to facilitate, within the DOE, the performance of chemical process hazards analyses (PrHAs) as required under the PSM Rule. It provides basic information for the performance of PrHAs, and should not be considered a complete resource on PrHA methods. Likewise, to determine if a facility is covered by the PSM rule, the reader should refer to the handbook, ``Process Safety Management for Highly Hazardous Chemicals`` (DOE- HDBK-1101-96). Promulgation of the PSM Rule has heightened the awareness of chemical safety management issues within the DOE. This handbook is intended for use by DOE facilities and processes covered by the PSM rule to facilitate contractor implementation of the PrHA element of the PSM Rule. However, contractors whose facilities and processes not covered by the PSM Rule may also use this handbook as a basis for conducting process hazards analyses as part of their good management practices. This handbook explains the minimum requirements for PrHAs outlined in the PSM Rule. Nowhere have requirements been added beyond what is specifically required by the rule.

  12. SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

    1982-01-01

    The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

  13. Real-time use of instantaneous wave-free ratio: results of the ADVISE in-practice: an international, multicenter evaluation of instantaneous wave-free ratio in clinical practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petraco, Ricardo; Al-Lamee, Rasha; Gotberg, Matthias; Sharp, Andrew; Hellig, Farrel; Nijjer, Sukhjinder S.; Echavarria-Pinto, Mauro; van de Hoef, Tim P.; Sen, Sayan; Tanaka, Nobuhiro; van Belle, Eric; Bojara, Waldemar; Sakoda, Kunihiro; Mates, Martin; Indolfi, Ciro; de Rosa, Salvatore; Vrints, Christian J.; Haine, Steven; Yokoi, Hiroyoshi; Ribichini, Flavio L.; Meuwissen, Martjin; Matsuo, Hitoshi; Janssens, Luc; Katsumi, Ueno; Di Mario, Carlo; Escaned, Javier; Piek, Jan; Davies, Justin E.

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the first experience of real-time instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR) measurement by clinicians. The iFR is a new vasodilator-free index of coronary stenosis severity, calculated as a trans-lesion pressure ratio during a specific period of baseline diastole, when distal resistance is

  14. A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

    2013-06-01

    Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

  15. Physical hazard safety awareness among healthcare workers in Tanta university hospitals, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sallamy, Rania M; Kabbash, Ibrahim Ali; El-Fatah, Sanaa Abd; El-Feky, Asmaa

    2017-05-17

    Hospital workers are exposed to many occupational hazards that may threaten their health and safety. Physical hazards encountered in hospital working environment include temperature, illumination, noise, electrical injuries, and radiation. To assess the awareness of healthcare workers (HCWs) about physical hazards in Tanta university hospitals, this cross-sectional study included 401 HCWs (physicians, nurses, technicians, and workers) from seven departments (general surgery, orthopedics, radiology, ophthalmology, kitchen, incinerator, and laundry). Data were collected through interview questionnaire to assess six types of physical hazards (noise, electric hazards, temperature, radiation, fire, and lighting,). Most of the physicians (63.7%) were aware of the level of noise. All physicians, nurses, technicians, and majority of workers reported that hearing protective devices were not available, and all HCWs reported that periodic hearing examination was not performed. Most of the nurses (75.2%) and workers (68.5%) did not attended emergency training, and more than two thirds of all HCWs were not briefed about emergency evacuation. Most HCWs were not given appropriate radiation safety training before starting work (88% of workers, 73.7% of nurses, 65.7% of physicians, and 68.3% of technicians). The majority of physicians, nurses, and technicians (70.5, 65.4, and 53.7%) denied regular environmental monitoring for radiation level inside work place. Health education programs on health and safety issues regarding physical hazards should be mandatory to all healthcare workers to improve their awareness and protect them from undue exposures they may face due to lack of adequate awareness and knowledge. There is urgent need of expanding the occupational healthcare services in Egypt to cover all the employees as indicated by the international recommendations and the Egyptian Constitution, legislation, and community necessity.

  16. An identification procedure for foodborne microbial hazards.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerwen, van S.J.C.; Wit, de J.C.; Notermans, S.; Zwietering, M.H.

    1997-01-01

    A stepwise and interactive identification procedure for foodborne microbial hazards has been developed in which use is made of several levels of detail ranging from rough hazard identification to comprehensive hazard identification. This approach allows one to tackle the most obvious hazards first,

  17. Avoiding the Hazards of Hazardous Waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Richard

    1996-01-01

    Under a 1980 law, colleges and universities can be liable for cleanup of hazardous waste on properties, in companies, and related to stocks they invest in or are given. College planners should establish clear policy concerning gifts, investigate gifts, distance university from business purposes, sell real estate gifts quickly, consult a risk…

  18. Toxic hazards of underground excavation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.; Chitnis, V.; Damasian, M.

    1982-09-01

    Inadvertent intrusion into natural or man-made toxic or hazardous material deposits as a consequence of activities such as mining, excavation or tunnelling has resulted in numerous deaths and injuries in this country. This study is a preliminary investigation to identify and document instances of such fatal or injurious intrusion. An objective is to provide useful insights and information related to potential hazards due to future intrusion into underground radioactive-waste-disposal facilities. The methodology used in this study includes literature review and correspondence with appropriate government agencies and organizations. Key categories of intrusion hazards are asphyxiation, methane, hydrogen sulfide, silica and asbestos, naturally occurring radionuclides, and various mine or waste dump related hazards

  19. Toxic hazards of underground excavation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, R.; Chitnis, V.; Damasian, M.; Lemm, M.; Popplesdorf, N.; Ryan, T.; Saban, C.; Cohen, J.; Smith, C.; Ciminesi, F.

    1982-09-01

    Inadvertent intrusion into natural or man-made toxic or hazardous material deposits as a consequence of activities such as mining, excavation or tunnelling has resulted in numerous deaths and injuries in this country. This study is a preliminary investigation to identify and document instances of such fatal or injurious intrusion. An objective is to provide useful insights and information related to potential hazards due to future intrusion into underground radioactive-waste-disposal facilities. The methodology used in this study includes literature review and correspondence with appropriate government agencies and organizations. Key categories of intrusion hazards are asphyxiation, methane, hydrogen sulfide, silica and asbestos, naturally occurring radionuclides, and various mine or waste dump related hazards.

  20. Incidents with hazardous radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenhacker, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Incidents with hazardous radiation sources can occur in any country, even those without nuclear facilities. Preparedness for such incidents is supposed to fulfill globally agreed minimum standards. Incidents are categorized in incidents with licensed handling of radiation sources as for material testing, transport accidents of hazardous radiation sources, incidents with radionuclide batteries, incidents with satellites containing radioactive inventory, incidents wit not licensed handling of illegally acquired hazardous radiation sources. The emergency planning in Austria includes a differentiation according to the consequences: incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in restricted contamination, incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in local contamination, and incidents with the hazard of e@nhanced exposure due to the radiation source.

  1. Developing a methodology for the national-scale assessment of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurchescu, Marta; Micu, Dana; Sima, Mihaela; Bălteanu, Dan; Bojariu, Roxana; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Dragotă, Carmen; Micu, Mihai; Senzaconi, Francisc

    2017-04-01

    Landslides together with earthquakes and floods represent the main natural hazards in Romania, causing major impacts to human activities. The RO-RISK (Disaster Risk Evaluation at a National Level) project is a flagship project aimed to strengthen risk prevention and management in Romania, by evaluating - among the specific risks in the country - landslide hazard and risk at a national level. Landslide hazard is defined as "the probability of occurrence within a specified period of time and within a given area of a landslide of a given magnitude" (Varnes 1984; Guzzetti et al. 1999). Nevertheless, most landslide ʿhazardʾ maps only consist in susceptibility (i.e. spatial probability) zonations without considering temporal or magnitude information on the hazard. This study proposes a methodology for the assessment of landslide hazard at the national scale on a scenario basis, while also considering changes in hazard patterns and levels under climate change conditions. A national landslide database consisting of more than 3,000 records has been analyzed against a meteorological observation dataset in order to assess the relationship between precipitation and landslides. Various extreme climate indices were computed in order to account for the different rainfall patterns able to prepare/trigger landslides (e.g. extreme levels of seasonal rainfall, 3-days rainfall or number of consecutive rainy days with different return periods). In order to derive national rainfall thresholds, i.e. valid for diverse climatic environments across the country, values in the parameter maps were rendered comparable by means of normalization with the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day-normal. A hazard assessment builds on a frequency-magnitude relationship. In the current hazard scenario approach, frequency was kept constant for each single map, while the magnitude of the expected geomorphic event was modeled in relation to the distributed magnitude of the triggering factor. Given

  2. Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0

  3. J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

    2015-12-01

    An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

  4. Hazardous medical waste generation rates of different categories of health-care facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komilis, Dimitrios; Fouki, Anastassia; Papadopoulos, Dimitrios

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We calculated hazardous medical waste generation rates (HMWGR) from 132 hospitals. ► Based on a 22-month study period, HMWGR were highly skewed to the right. ► The HMWGR varied from 0.00124 to 0.718 kg bed −1 d −1 . ► A positive correlation existed between the HMWGR and the number of hospital beds. ► We used non-parametric statistics to compare rates among hospital categories. - Abstract: Goal of this work was to calculate the hazardous medical waste unit generation rates (HMWUGR), in kg bed −1 d −1 , using data from 132 health-care facilities in Greece. The calculations were based on the weights of the hazardous medical wastes that were regularly transferred to the sole medical waste incinerator in Athens over a 22-month period during years 2009 and 2010. The 132 health-care facilities were grouped into public and private ones, and, also, into seven sub-categories, namely: birth, cancer treatment, general, military, pediatric, psychiatric and university hospitals. Results showed that there is a large variability in the HMWUGR, even among hospitals of the same category. Average total HMWUGR varied from 0.012 kg bed −1 d −1 , for the public psychiatric hospitals, to up to 0.72 kg bed −1 d −1 , for the public university hospitals. Within the private hospitals, average HMWUGR ranged from 0.0012 kg bed −1 d −1 , for the psychiatric clinics, to up to 0.49 kg bed −1 d −1 , for the birth clinics. Based on non-parametric statistics, HMWUGR were statistically similar for the birth and general hospitals, in both the public and private sector. The private birth and general hospitals generated statistically more wastes compared to the corresponding public hospitals. The infectious/toxic and toxic medical wastes appear to be 10% and 50% of the total hazardous medical wastes generated by the public cancer treatment and university hospitals, respectively.

  5. COMPARISON of FUZZY-BASED MODELS in LANDSLIDE HAZARD MAPPING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mijani

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Landslide is one of the main geomorphic processes which effects on the development of prospect in mountainous areas and causes disastrous accidents. Landslide is an event which has different uncertain criteria such as altitude, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation density, precipitation, distance from the river and distance from the road network. This research aims to compare and evaluate different fuzzy-based models including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR. The main contribution of this paper reveals to the comprehensive criteria causing landslide hazard considering their uncertainties and comparison of different fuzzy-based models. The quantify of evaluation process are calculated by Density Ratio (DR and Quality Sum (QS. The proposed methodology implemented in Sari, one of the city of Iran which has faced multiple landslide accidents in recent years due to the particular environmental conditions. The achieved results of accuracy assessment based on the quantifier strated that Fuzzy-AHP model has higher accuracy compared to other two models in landslide hazard zonation. Accuracy of zoning obtained from Fuzzy-AHP model is respectively 0.92 and 0.45 based on method Precision (P and QS indicators. Based on obtained landslide hazard maps, Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR respectively cover 13, 26 and 35 percent of the study area with a very high risk level. Based on these findings, fuzzy-AHP model has been selected as the most appropriate method of zoning landslide in the city of Sari and the Fuzzy-gamma method with a minor difference is in the second order.

  6. Poisson's Ratio and Young's Modulus of Lipid Bilayers in Different Phases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jadidi, T.; Seyyed-Allaei, H.; Reza Tahimi Tabar, M.; Mashaghi, A.

    2014-01-01

    A general computational method is introduced to estimate the Poisson’s ratio for membranes with small thickness. In this method, the Poisson’s ratio is calculated by utilizing a rescaling of inter-particle distances in one lateral direction under periodic boundary conditions. As an example for the

  7. Success in transmitting hazard science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, J. G.; Garside, T.

    2010-12-01

    Money motivates mitigation. An example of success in communicating scientific information about hazards, coupled with information about available money, is the follow-up action by local governments to actually mitigate. The Nevada Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee helps local governments prepare competitive proposals for federal funds to reduce risks from natural hazards. Composed of volunteers with expertise in emergency management, building standards, and earthquake, flood, and wildfire hazards, the committee advises the Nevada Division of Emergency Management on (1) the content of the State’s hazard mitigation plan and (2) projects that have been proposed by local governments and state agencies for funding from various post- and pre-disaster hazard mitigation programs of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Local governments must have FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans in place before they can receive this funding. The committee has been meeting quarterly with elected and appointed county officials, at their offices, to encourage them to update their mitigation plans and apply for this funding. We have settled on a format that includes the county’s giving the committee an overview of its infrastructure, hazards, and preparedness. The committee explains the process for applying for mitigation grants and presents the latest information that we have about earthquake hazards, including locations of nearby active faults, historical seismicity, geodetic strain, loss-estimation modeling, scenarios, and documents about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. Much of the county-specific information is available on the web. The presentations have been well received, in part because the committee makes the effort to go to their communities, and in part because the committee is helping them attract federal funds for local mitigation of not only earthquake hazards but also floods (including canal breaches) and wildfires, the other major concerns in

  8. Water Induced Hazard Mapping in Nepal: A Case Study of East Rapti River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, N.

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents illustration on typical water induced hazard mapping of East Rapti River Basin under the DWIDP, GON. The basin covers an area of 2398 sq km. The methodology includes making of base map of water induced disaster in the basin. Landslide hazard maps were prepared by SINMAP approach. Debris flow hazard maps were prepared by considering geology, slope, and saturation. Flood hazard maps were prepared by using two approaches: HEC-RAS and Satellite Imagery Interpretation. The composite water-induced hazard maps were produced by compiling the hazards rendered by landslide, debris flow, and flood. The monsoon average rainfall in the basin is 1907 mm whereas maximum 24 hours precipitation is 456.8 mm. The peak discharge of the Rapati River in the year of 1993 at station was 1220 cu m/sec. This discharge nearly corresponds to the discharge of 100-year return period. The landslides, floods, and debris flows triggered by the heavy rain of July 1993 claimed 265 lives, affected 148516 people, and damaged 1500 houses in the basin. The field investigation and integrated GIS interpretation showed that the very high and high landslide hazard zones collectively cover 38.38% and debris flow hazard zone constitutes 6.58%. High flood hazard zone occupies 4.28% area of the watershed. Mitigation measures are recommendated according to Integrated Watershed Management Approach under which the non-structural and structural measures are proposed. The non-structural measures includes: disaster management training, formulation of evacuation system (arrangement of information plan about disaster), agriculture management practices, protection of water sources, slope protections and removal of excessive bed load from the river channel. Similarly, structural measures such as dike, spur, rehabilitation of existing preventive measures and river training at some locations are recommendated. The major factors that have contributed to induce high incidences of various types of mass

  9. BINARY CEPHEIDS: SEPARATIONS AND MASS RATIOS IN 5 M ☉ BINARIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Nancy Remage; Karovska, Margarita; Tingle, Evan; Bond, Howard E.; Schaefer, Gail H.; Mason, Brian D.

    2013-01-01

    Deriving the distribution of binary parameters for a particular class of stars over the full range of orbital separations usually requires the combination of results from many different observing techniques (radial velocities, interferometry, astrometry, photometry, direct imaging), each with selection biases. However, Cepheids—cool, evolved stars of ∼5 M ☉ —are a special case because ultraviolet (UV) spectra will immediately reveal any companion star hotter than early type A, regardless of the orbital separation. We have used International Ultraviolet Explorer UV spectra of a complete sample of all 76 Cepheids brighter than V = 8 to create a list of all 18 Cepheids with companions more massive than 2.0 M ☉ . Orbital periods of many of these binaries are available from radial-velocity studies, or can be estimated for longer-period systems from detected velocity variability. In an imaging survey with the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3, we resolved three of the companions (those of η Aql, S Nor, and V659 Cen), allowing us to make estimates of the periods out to the long-period end of the distribution. Combining these separations with orbital data in the literature, we derive an unbiased distribution of binary separations, orbital periods, and mass ratios. The distribution of orbital periods shows that the 5 M ☉ binaries have systematically shorter periods than do 1 M ☉ stars. Our data also suggest that the distribution of mass ratios depends on both binary separation and system multiplicity. The distribution of mass ratios as a function of orbital separation, however, does not depend on whether a system is a binary or a triple

  10. Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

    2013-09-30

    Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. IDENTIFICATION OF AIRCRAFT HAZARDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K.L. Ashley

    2005-01-01

    Aircraft hazards were determined to be potentially applicable to a repository at Yucca Mountain in the ''Monitored Geological Repository External Events Hazards Screening Analysis'' (BSC 2004, Section 6.4.1). That determination was conservatively based on limited knowledge of flight data in the area of concern and on crash data for aircraft of the type flying near Yucca Mountain. The purpose of this report is to identify specific aircraft hazards that may be applicable to a Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) at Yucca Mountain using NUREG-0800, ''Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants'' (NRC 1987, Section 3.5.1.6), as guidance for the inclusion or exclusion of identified aircraft hazards. NUREG-0800 is being used here as a reference because some of the same considerations apply. The intended use of this report is to provide inputs for further screening and analysis of the identified aircraft hazards based on the criteria that apply to Category 1 and 2 event sequence analyses as defined in 10 CFR 63.2 (see Section 4). The scope of this technical report includes the evaluation of military, private, and commercial use of airspace in the 100-mile regional setting of the MGR at Yucca Mountain with the potential for reducing the regional setting to a more manageable size after consideration of applicable screening criteria (see Section 7)

  12. Identification of Aircraft Hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Ashley

    2006-12-08

    Aircraft hazards were determined to be potentially applicable to a repository at Yucca Mountain in ''Monitored Geological Repository External Events Hazards Screening Analysis'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 174235], Section 6.4.1). That determination was conservatively based upon limited knowledge of flight data in the area of concern and upon crash data for aircraft of the type flying near Yucca Mountain. The purpose of this report is to identify specific aircraft hazards that may be applicable to a monitored geologic repository (MGR) at Yucca Mountain, using NUREG-0800, ''Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants'' (NRC 1987 [DIRS 103124], Section 3.5.1.6), as guidance for the inclusion or exclusion of identified aircraft hazards. The intended use of this report is to provide inputs for further screening and analysis of identified aircraft hazards based upon the criteria that apply to Category 1 and Category 2 event sequence analyses as defined in 10 CFR 63.2 [DIRS 176544] (Section 4). The scope of this report includes the evaluation of military, private, and commercial use of airspace in the 100-mile regional setting of the repository at Yucca Mountain with the potential for reducing the regional setting to a more manageable size after consideration of applicable screening criteria (Section 7).

  13. Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a broad overview, characterization, and visualization of the interaction relationships between 21 natural hazards, drawn from six hazard groups (geophysical, hydrological, shallow Earth, atmospheric, biophysical, and space hazards). A synthesis is presented of the identified interaction relationships between these hazards, using an accessible visual format particularly suited to end users. Interactions considered are primarily those where a primary hazard triggers or increases the probability of secondary hazards occurring. In this paper we do the following: (i) identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, 90 interactions; (ii) subdivide the interactions into three levels, based on how well we can characterize secondary hazards, given information about the primary hazard; (iii) determine the spatial overlap and temporal likelihood of the triggering relationships occurring; and (iv) examine the relationship between primary and secondary hazard intensities for each identified hazard interaction and group these into five possible categories. In this study we have synthesized, using accessible visualization techniques, large amounts of information drawn from many scientific disciplines. We outline the importance of constraining hazard interactions and reinforce the importance of a holistic (or multihazard) approach to natural hazard assessment. This approach allows those undertaking research into single hazards to place their work within the context of other hazards. It also communicates important aspects of hazard interactions, facilitating an effective analysis by those working on reducing and managing disaster risk within both the policy and practitioner communities.

  14. The Nature of Natural Hazards Communication (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontar, Y. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Some of the many issues of interest to natural hazards professionals include the analysis of proactive approaches to the governance of risk from natural hazards and approaches to broaden the scope of public policies related to the management of risks from natural hazards, as well as including emergency and environmental management, community development and spatial planning related to natural hazards. During the talk we will present results of scientific review, analysis and synthesis, which emphasize same new trends in communication of the natural hazards theories and practices within an up-to-the-minute context of new environmental and climate change issues, new technologies, and a new focus on resiliency. The presentation is divided into five sections that focus on natural hazards communication in terms of education, risk management, public discourse, engaging the public, theoretical perspectives, and new media. It includes results of case studies and best practices. It delves into natural hazards communication theories, including diffusion, argumentation, and constructivism, to name a few. The presentation will provide information about: (1) A manual of natural hazards communication for scientists, policymakers, and media; (2) An up-to-the-minute context of environmental hazards, new technologies & political landscape; (3) A work by natural hazards scientists for geoscientists working with social scientists and communication principles; (4) A work underpinned by key natural hazards communication theories and interspersed with pragmatic solutions; (5) A work that crosses traditional natural hazards boundaries: international, interdisciplinary, theoretical/applied. We will further explore how spatial planning can contribute to risk governance by influencing the occupation of natural hazard-prone areas, and review the central role of emergency management in risk policy. The goal of this presentation is to contribute to the augmentation of the conceptual framework

  15. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Gentilly 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Results of this probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were determined using a suite of conservative assumptions. The intent of this study was to perform a limited hazard assessment that incorporated a range of technically defensible input parameters. To best achieve this goal, input selected for the hazard assessment tended to be conservative with respect to selection of attenuation modes, and seismicity parameters. Seismic hazard estimates at Gentilly 2 were most affected by selection of the attenuation model. Alternative definitions of seismic source zones had a relatively small impact on seismic hazard. A St. Lawrence Rift model including a maximum magnitude of 7.2 m b in the zone containing the site had little effect on the hazard estimate relative to other seismic source zonation models. Mean annual probabilities of exceeding the design peak ground acceleration, and the design response spectrum for the Gentilly 2 site were computed to lie in the range of 0.001 to 0.0001. This hazard result falls well within the range determined to be acceptable for nuclear reactor sites located throughout the eastern United States. (author) 34 refs., 6 tabs., 28 figs

  16. Report 6: Guidance document. Man-made hazards and Accidental Aircraft Crash hazards modelling and implementation in extended PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahia, S.; Brinkman, H.; Bareith, A.; Siklossy, T.; Vinot, T.; Mateescu, T.; Espargilliere, J.; Burgazzi, L.; Ivanov, I.; Bogdanov, D.; Groudev, P.; Ostapchuk, S.; Zhabin, O.; Stojka, T.; Alzbutas, R.; Kumar, M.; Nitoi, M.; Farcasiu, M.; Borysiewicz, M.; Kowal, K.; Potempski, S.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this report is to provide guidance on practices to model man-made hazards (mainly external fires and explosions) and accidental aircraft crash hazards and implement them in extended Level 1 PSA. This report is a joint deliverable of work package 21 (WP21) and work package 22 (WP22). The general objective of WP21 is to provide guidance on all of the individual hazards selected at the first ASAMPSA-E End Users Workshop (May 2014, Uppsala, Sweden). The objective of WP22 is to provide the solutions for purposes of different parts of man-made hazards Level 1 PSA fulfilment. This guidance is focusing on man-made hazards, namely: external fires and explosions, and accidental aircraft crash hazards. Guidance developed refers to existing guidance whenever possible. The initial part of guidance (WP21 part) reflects current practices to assess the frequencies for each type of hazards or combination of hazards (including correlated hazards) as initiating event for PSAs. The sources and quality of hazard data, the elements of hazard assessment methodologies and relevant examples are discussed. Classification and criteria to properly assess hazard combinations as well as examples and methods for assessment of these combinations are included in this guidance. In appendixes additional material is presented with the examples of practical approaches to aircraft crash and man-made hazard. The following issues are addressed: 1) Hazard assessment methodologies, including issues related to hazard combinations. 2) Modelling equipment of safety related SSC, 3) HRA, 4) Emergency response, 5) Multi-unit issues. Recommendations and also limitations, gaps identified in the existing methodologies and a list of open issues are included. At all stages of this guidance and especially from an industrial end-user perspective, one must keep in mind that the development of man-made hazards probabilistic analysis must be conditioned to the ability to ultimately obtain a representative risk

  17. Canister storage building hazard analysis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    POWERS, T.B.

    1999-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used in conducting the Canister Storage Building (CSB) hazard analysis to support the CSB final safety analysis report (FSAR) and documents the results. The hazard analysis was performed in accordance with the DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports'', and meets the intent of HNF-PRO-704, ''Hazard and Accident Analysis Process''. This hazard analysis implements the requirements of DOE Order 5480.23, ''Nuclear Safety Analysis Reports''

  18. Prognostic value of serum heavy/light chain ratios in patients with POEMS syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chen; Su, Wei; Cai, Qian-Qian; Cai, Hao; Ji, Wei; Di, Qian; Duan, Ming-Hui; Cao, Xin-Xin; Zhou, Dao-Bin; Li, Jian

    2016-07-01

    POEMS syndrome is a rare plasma cell dyscrasia. Serum concentrations of the monoclonal protein in this disorder are typically low, and inapplicable to monitor disease activity in most cases, resulting in limited practical and prognostic values. Novel immunoassays measuring isotype-specific heavy/light chain (HLC) pairs showed its utility in disease monitoring and outcome prediction in several plasma cell dyscrasias. We report results of HLC measurements in 90 patients with POEMS syndrome. Sixty-six patients (73%; 95% confidence interval, 63-82%) had an abnormal HLC ratio at baseline. It could stratify the risk of disease relapse and was strongly associated with worse progression-free survival in a multivariate analysis (P = 0.021; hazard ratio [HR] 6.89, 95% CI 1.34-35.43). After therapy, HLC ratios improved, with 43 patients (48%) remaining abnormal. The post-therapeutic HLC ratio, if abnormal, also remained as an independent prognostic factor associated with worse progression-free survival (P = 0.019; HR 4.30, 95% CI 1.27-14.56). These results suggest the prognostic utility of HLC ratios in clinical management of POEMS patients. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. A random field model for the estimation of seismic hazard. Final report for the period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, S.

    1991-02-01

    The general theory of stationary random functions is utilized to assess the seismic hazard associated with a linearly extending seismic source. The past earthquake occurrence data associated with a portion of the North Anatolian fault are used to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed model. 18 refs, figs and tabs

  20. A random field model for the estimation of seismic hazard. Final report for the period 1 January 1990 - 31 December 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yucemen, S [Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara (Turkey). Dept. of Statistics

    1991-02-01

    The general theory of stationary random functions is utilized to assess the seismic hazard associated with a linearly extending seismic source. The past earthquake occurrence data associated with a portion of the North Anatolian fault are used to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed model. 18 refs, figs and tabs.

  1. Self-reported musculoskeletal disorder pain: The role of job hazards and work-life interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weale, Victoria P; Wells, Yvonne; Oakman, Jodi

    2018-02-01

    Previous research identified an association between work-family conflict and musculoskeletal pain. This study explores how the work-life interface might affect pain experienced by residential aged care staff. A cross-sectional survey of 426 employees in residential aged care was analyzed to assess the impacts of workplace hazards, work-family conflict, and work-life balance on self-reported musculoskeletal pain. Work-family conflict acts as a mediator of the relationships between workplace hazards and the total number of body regions at which musculoskeletal pain was experienced. Work-life balance only acts as a mediator for particular hazards and only if work-family conflict is not taken into account. Addressing work-life interaction, and in particular work-family conflict, warrants further investigation as a legitimate means through which musculoskeletal disorder risk can be reduced. Policies and practices to improve work-life interaction and reduce work-family conflict should be considered as integral components of musculoskeletal disorder risk management strategies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Natural Hazards and the press in the western Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Llasat-Botija

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses press articles published between 1982 and 2005 in an attempt to describe the social perception of natural hazards in Catalonia. The articles included in the database have been classified according to different types of risk. In addition, the study examines the evolution of each type of risk in the press coverage during the study period. Finally, the results have been compared to data provided by insurance companies with respect to compensations paid out for damages. Conclusions show that floods are the most important natural hazard in the region, but that the number of headlines for each event is greater in the case of snowfalls and forest fires. Factors such as the season of the year, the proximity of the affected region to the capital, the topical issues at the time, and the presence of other important news must be considered when the impact in the press is analysed.

  3. LAV@HAZARD: a Web-GIS Framework for Real-Time Forecasting of Lava Flow Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Negro, C.; Bilotta, G.; Cappello, A.; Ganci, G.; Herault, A.

    2014-12-01

    Crucial to lava flow hazard assessment is the development of tools for real-time prediction of flow paths, flow advance rates, and final flow lengths. Accurate prediction of flow paths and advance rates requires not only rapid assessment of eruption conditions (especially effusion rate) but also improved models of lava flow emplacement. Here we present the LAV@HAZARD web-GIS framework, which combines spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations for real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards. By using satellite-derived discharge rates to drive a lava flow emplacement model, LAV@HAZARD allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We take advantage of the flexibility of the HOTSAT thermal monitoring system to process satellite images coming from sensors with different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions. HOTSAT was designed to ingest infrared satellite data acquired by the MODIS and SEVIRI sensors to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux and discharge rate. We use LAV@HAZARD to merge this output with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths and to update, in a timely manner, flow simulations. Thus, any significant changes in lava discharge rate are included in the predictions. A significant benefit in terms of computational speed was obtained thanks to the parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs). All this useful information has been gathered into the LAV@HAZARD platform which, due to the high degree of interactivity, allows generation of easily readable maps and a fast way to explore alternative scenarios. We will describe and demonstrate the operation of this framework using a variety of case studies pertaining to Mt Etna, Sicily. Although this study was conducted on Mt Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas around the world.

  4. Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

    2014-05-01

    Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some

  5. Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet

    2009-01-01

    In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

  6. Portable sensor for hazardous waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piper, L.G.

    1994-01-01

    Objective was to develop a field-portable monitor for sensitive hazardous waste detection using active nitrogen energy transfer (ANET) excitation of atomic and molecular fluorescence (active nitrogen is made in a dielectric-barrier discharge in nitrogen). It should provide rapid field screening of hazardous waste sites to map areas of greatest contamination. Results indicate that ANET is very sensitive for monitoring heavy metals (Hg, Se) and hydrocarbons; furthermore, chlorinated hydrocarbons can be distinguished from nonchlorinated ones. Sensitivity is at ppB levels for sampling in air. ANET appears ideal for on-line monitoring of toxic heavy metal levels at building sites, hazardous waste land fills, in combustor flues, and of chlorinated hydrocarbon levels at building sites and hazardous waste dumps

  7. Portable sensor for hazardous waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piper, L.G.; Fraser, M.E.; Davis, S.J. [Physical Sciences Inc., Andover, MA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    We are beginning the second phase of a three and a half year program designed to develop a portable monitor for sensitive hazardous waste detection. The ultimate goal of the program is to develop our concept to the prototype instrument level. Our monitor will be a compact, portable instrument that will allow real-time, in situ, monitoring of hazardous wastes. This instrument will be able to provide the means for rapid field screening of hazardous waste sites to map the areas of greatest contamination. Remediation efforts can then focus on these areas. Further, our instrument can show whether cleanup technologies are successful at reducing hazardous materials concentrations below regulated levels, and will provide feedback to allow changes in remediation operations, if necessary, to enhance their efficacy.

  8. 46 CFR 151.03-30 - Hazardous material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... hazardous material means a liquid material or substance that is— (a) Flammable or combustible; (b) Designated a hazardous substance under section 311(b) of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (33 U.S.C... Agency designates hazardous substances in 40 CFR Table 116.4A. The Coast Guard designates hazardous...

  9. Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

  10. FEMA DFIRM Flood Hazard Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — FEMA flood hazard delineations are used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to designate the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and for insurance rating...

  11. Hazardous Waste: Learn the Basics of Hazardous Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Need More Information on Hazardous Waste? The RCRA Orientation Manual provides introductory information on the solid and ... and Security Notice Connect. Data.gov Inspector General Jobs Newsroom Open Government Regulations.gov Subscribe USA.gov ...

  12. 14 CFR 437.55 - Hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Hazard analysis. 437.55 Section 437.55... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING EXPERIMENTAL PERMITS Safety Requirements § 437.55 Hazard analysis. (a) A permittee must... safety of property resulting from each permitted flight. This hazard analysis must— (1) Identify and...

  13. Preliminary Hazard Classification for the 105-B Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, N.R.

    1997-08-01

    This document summarizes the inventories of radioactive and hazardous materials present within the 105-B Reactor and uses the inventory information to determine the preliminary hazard classification for the surveillance and maintenance activities of the facility. The result of this effort was the preliminary hazard classification for the 105-B Building surveillance and maintenance activities. The preliminary hazard classification was determined to be Nuclear Category 3. Additional hazard and accident analysis will be documented in a separate report to define the hazard controls and final hazard classification

  14. Hazardous waste management in research laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundstrom, G.

    1989-01-01

    Hazardous waste management in research laboratories benefits from a fundamentally different approach to the hazardous waste determination from industry's. This paper introduces new, statue-based criteria for identifying hazardous wastes (such as radiological mixed wastes and waste oils) and links them to a forward-looking compliance of laboratories, the overall system integrates hazardous waste management activities with other environmental and hazard communication initiatives. It is generalizable to other waste generators, including industry. Although only the waste identification and classification aspects of the system are outlined in detail here, four other components are defined or supported, namely: routine and contingency practices; waste treatment/disposal option definition and selection; waste minimization, recycling, reuse, and substitution opportunities; and key interfaces with other systems, including pollution prevention

  15. Mixing ratios of carbon monoxide in the troposphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novelli, P.C.; Steele, L.P. (Univ. of Colorado, Boulder (United States)); Tans, P.P. (NOAA, Boulder, CO (United States))

    1992-12-20

    Carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratios were measured in air samples collected weekly at eight locations. The air was collected as part of the CMDL/NOAA cooperative flask sampling program (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, formerly Geophysical Monitoring for Climatic Change, Air Resources Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) at Point Barrow, Alaska, Niwot Ridge, Colorado, Mauna Loa and Cape Kumakahi, Hawaii, Guam, Marianas Islands, Christmas Island, Ascension Island and American Samoa. Half-liter or 3-L glass flasks fitted with glass piston stopcocks holding teflon O rings were used for sample collection. CO levels were determined within several weeks of collection using gas chromatography followed by mercuric oxide reduction detection, and mixing ratios were referenced against the CMDL/NOAA carbon monoxide standard scale. During the period of study (mid-1988 through December 1990) CO levels were greatest in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere (mean mixing ratio from January 1989 to December 1990 at Point Barrow was approximately 154 ppb) and decreased towards the south (mean mixing ratio at Samoa over a similar period was 65 ppb). Mixing ratios varied seasonally, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle was greatest in the north and decreased to the south. Carbon monoxide levels were affected by both local and regional scale processes. The difference in CO levels between northern and southern latitudes also varied seasonally. The greatest difference in CO mixing ratios between Barrow and Samoa was observed during the northern winter (about 150 ppb). The smallest difference, 40 ppb, occurred during the austral winter. The annually averaged CO difference between 71[degrees]N and 14[degrees]S was approximately 90 ppb in both 1989 and 1990; the annually averaged interhemispheric gradient from 71[degrees]N to 41[degrees]S is estimated as approximately 95 ppb. 66 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. BEHAVIORAL HAZARD IN HEALTH INSURANCE*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baicker, Katherine; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Schwartzstein, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental implication of standard moral hazard models is overuse of low-value medical care because copays are lower than costs. In these models, the demand curve alone can be used to make welfare statements, a fact relied on by much empirical work. There is ample evidence, though, that people misuse care for a different reason: mistakes, or “behavioral hazard.” Much high-value care is underused even when patient costs are low, and some useless care is bought even when patients face the full cost. In the presence of behavioral hazard, welfare calculations using only the demand curve can be off by orders of magnitude or even be the wrong sign. We derive optimal copay formulas that incorporate both moral and behavioral hazard, providing a theoretical foundation for value-based insurance design and a way to interpret behavioral “nudges.” Once behavioral hazard is taken into account, health insurance can do more than just provide financial protection—it can also improve health care efficiency. PMID:23930294

  17. Potentials and limitations of hazard indices for the determination of risk potentials of disposed toxic wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, Gerald

    1989-01-01

    Hazard indices are often used for the determination of risk potentials arising from the geological disposal of toxic wastes. They are based on simplified models for the calculation of potential health effects caused by the wastes. The attractiveness of hazard indices lies in their simplicity which nevertheless results in reliable data on necessary isolation times and the most toxic nuclides of a waste. They also make possible comparisons of the potential risks of different wastes. After a discussion of the processes that control the behavior of toxic wastes in the environment after a failure of the geological barriers, a new hazard index is presented. Originally developed for nuclear wastes, it is the first which involves the joint consideration of the composition of a waste, the probability for transport of waste nuclides to man, their toxicity, and the time-dependent changes of the risk potentials which are caused by radioactive buildup and decay processes after the waste has entered the biosphere. The new hazard index makes possible the calculation of risk potentials at a given time of release and time period of concern thereafter. Sample calculations for different nuclear wastes show the importance of the model improvements on resulting time-dependent risk potentials. Applicability of the new hazard index to non-nuclear wastes is described. Potentials and limitations of comparative risk assessments using hazard indices are discussed. (author)

  18. Could changes in reported sex ratios at birth during China's 1958-1961 famine support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Reimondos

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis suggests that when mothers are in poor conditions the sex ratio of their offspring will be biased towards females. Major famines provide opportunities for testing this hypothesis because they lead to the widespread deterioration of living conditions in the affected population. Objective: This study examines changes in sex ratio at birth before, during, and after China's 1958-1961 famine, to see whether they provide any support for the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis. Methods: We use descriptive statistics to analyse data collected by both China's 1982 and 1988 fertility sample surveys and examine changes in sex ratio at birth in recent history. In addition, we examine the effectiveness of using different methods to model changes in sex ratio at birth and compare their differences. Results: During China's 1958-1961 famine, reported sex ratio at birth remained notably higher than that observed in most countries in the world. The timing of the decline in sex ratio at birth did not coincide with the timing of the famine. After the famine, although living conditions were considerably improved, the sex ratio at birth was not higher but lower than that recorded during the famine. Conclusions: The analysis of the data collected by the two fertility surveys has found no evidence that changes in sex ratio at birth during China's 1958-1961 famine and the post-famine period supported the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis.

  19. Reactivation hazard mapping for ancient landslides in West Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Dewitte

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Several examples in western Europe have shown that, at least for deep-seated rotational slides, reactivation of formerly slipped masses is a more frequent phenomenon than the occurrence of new landslides, therefore representing a higher hazard. We selected a study area comprised of 13 landslides located in the Flemish Ardennes (West Belgium and predicted the hazard related to scarp retreat. The scarp reactivations were identified from the comparison of DTMs produced for 1952 and 1996. Robust results were obtained with the Gamma operator of a fuzzy set approach and a combination of geomorphic, topographic and land use data. We built first a prediction model from the relations linking the 1952–1996 retreat events to the conditioning parameters of 1952. The prediction rate of the resulting susceptibility map is estimated by a cross-validation procedure. We then applied the statistics of this model to the data of 1996 in order to produce a susceptibility map responding to the present-day conditions. Finally, we estimated the conditional probabilities of occurrence of future reactivations for the period 1996–2036.

  20. Hazard avoidance via descent images for safe landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ruicheng; Cao, Zhiguo; Zhu, Lei; Fang, Zhiwen

    2013-10-01

    In planetary or lunar landing missions, hazard avoidance is critical for landing safety. Therefore, it is very important to correctly detect hazards and effectively find a safe landing area during the last stage of descent. In this paper, we propose a passive sensing based HDA (hazard detection and avoidance) approach via descent images to lower the landing risk. In hazard detection stage, a statistical probability model on the basis of the hazard similarity is adopted to evaluate the image and detect hazardous areas, so that a binary hazard image can be generated. Afterwards, a safety coefficient, which jointly utilized the proportion of hazards in the local region and the inside hazard distribution, is proposed to find potential regions with less hazards in the binary hazard image. By using the safety coefficient in a coarse-to-fine procedure and combining it with the local ISD (intensity standard deviation) measure, the safe landing area is determined. The algorithm is evaluated and verified with many simulated descent downward looking images rendered from lunar orbital satellite images.

  1. Quasiaxially symmetric stellarators with three field periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garabedian, P.; Ku, L.

    1999-01-01

    Compact hybrid configurations with two field periods have been studied recently as candidates for a proof of principle experiment at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. This project has led us to the discovery of a family of quasiaxially symmetric stellarators with three field periods that have significant advantages, although their aspect ratios are a little larger. They have reversed shear and perform better in a local analysis of ballooning modes. Nonlinear equilibrium and stability calculations predict that the average beta limit will be at least as high as 4% if the bootstrap current turns out to be as big as that expected in comparable tokamaks. The concept relies on a combination of helical fields and bootstrap current to achieve adequate rotational transform at low aspect ratio. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

  2. New Realization of Periodic Cycled Separation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toftegard, Bjarne; Clausen, Charlotte H.; Jørgensen, Sten B.

    2016-01-01

    are drained sequentially rather than simultaneously, such that the vapor flow is not interrupted during the liquid drainage. For different ratios of counter-current vapor/liquid flow rates, column efficiencies for periodically cycled columns are shown experimentally to be two times greater than those...

  3. Seismic hazard assessment in the Catania and Siracusa urban areas (Italy) through different approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Francesco; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Rigano, Rosaria

    2010-05-01

    The seismic hazard assessment (SHA) can be performed using either Deterministic or Probabilistic approaches. In present study a probabilistic analysis was carried out for the Catania and Siracusa towns using two different procedures: the 'site' (Albarello and Mucciarelli, 2002) and the 'seismotectonic' (Cornell 1968; Esteva, 1967) methodologies. The SASHA code (D'Amico and Albarello, 2007) was used to calculate seismic hazard through the 'site' approach, whereas the CRISIS2007 code (Ordaz et al., 2007) was adopted in the Esteva-Cornell procedure. According to current international conventions for PSHA (SSHAC, 1997), a logic tree approach was followed to consider and reduce the epistemic uncertainties, for both seismotectonic and site methods. The code SASHA handles the intensity data taking into account the macroseismic information of past earthquakes. CRISIS2007 code needs, as input elements, a seismic catalogue tested for completeness, a seismogenetic zonation and ground motion predicting equations. Data concerning the characterization of regional seismic sources and ground motion attenuation properties were taken from the literature. Special care was devoted to define source zone models, taking into account the most recent studies on regional seismotectonic features and, in particular, the possibility of considering the Malta escarpment as a potential source. The combined use of the above mentioned approaches allowed us to obtain useful elements to define the site seismic hazard in Catania and Siracusa. The results point out that the choice of the probabilistic model plays a fundamental role. It is indeed observed that when the site intensity data are used, the town of Catania shows hazard values higher than the ones found for Siracusa, for each considered return period. On the contrary, when the Esteva-Cornell method is used, Siracusa urban area shows higher hazard than Catania, for return periods greater than one hundred years. The higher hazard observed

  4. Prognostic value of the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in lung cancer: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yongmei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Xuedong; Gu, Lan; Pei, Hao; Kuai, Shougang; Zhang, Yingying; Shang, Zhongbo

    2015-07-01

    Recently, a series of studies explored the correlation between the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and the prognosis of lung cancer. However, the current opinion regarding the prognostic role of the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in lung cancer is inconsistent. We performed a meta-analysis of published articles to investigate the prognostic value of the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in lung cancer. The hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. An elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicted worse overall survival, with a pooled HR of 1.243 (95%CI: 1.106-1.397; P(heterogeneity)=0.001) from multivariate studies and 1.867 (95%CI: 1.487-2.344; P(heterogeneity)=0.047) from univariate studies. Subgroup analysis showed that a high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio yielded worse overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) (HR=1.192, 95%CI: 1.061-1.399; P(heterogeneity)=0.003) as well as small cell lung cancer (SCLC) (HR=1.550, 95% CI: 1.156-2.077; P(heterogeneity)=0.625) in multivariate studies. The synthesized evidence from this meta-analysis of published articles demonstrated that an elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was a predictor of poor overall survival in patients with lung cancer.

  5. Hazardous waste management in the Pacific basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cirillo, R.R.; Chiu, S.; Chun, K.C.; Conzelmann, G. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Carpenter, R.A.; Indriyanto, S.H. [East-West Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    1994-11-01

    Hazardous waste control activities in Asia and the Pacific have been reviewed. The review includes China (mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It covers the sources of hazardous waste, the government structure for dealing with hazardous waste, and current hazardous waste control activities in each country. In addition, the hazardous waste program activities of US government agencies, US private-sector organizations, and international organizations are reviewed. The objective of these reviews is to provide a comprehensive picture of the current hazardous waste problems and the waste management approaches being used to address them so that new program activities can be designed more efficiently.

  6. Travelers' Health: Animal-Associated Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Chapter 2 - Safety & Security Chapter 2 - Environmental Hazards Animal-Associated Hazards Heather Bair-Brake, Ryan M. Wallace, G. Gale Galland, Nina Marano HUMAN INTERACTION WITH ANIMALS: A RISK FACTOR FOR INJURY AND ILLNESS Animals, ...

  7. 21 CFR 120.7 - Hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Hazard analysis. 120.7 Section 120.7 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN... hazards. The written hazard analysis shall consist of at least the following: (1) Identification of food...

  8. Controlling organic chemical hazards in food manufacturing: a hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ropkins, K; Beck, A J

    2002-08-01

    Hazard analysis by critical control points (HACCP) is a systematic approach to the identification, assessment and control of hazards. Effective HACCP requires the consideration of all hazards, i.e., chemical, microbiological and physical. However, to-date most 'in-place' HACCP procedures have tended to focus on the control of microbiological and physical food hazards. In general, the chemical component of HACCP procedures is either ignored or limited to applied chemicals, e.g., food additives and pesticides. In this paper we discuss the application of HACCP to a broader range of chemical hazards, using organic chemical contaminants as examples, and the problems that are likely to arise in the food manufacturing sector. Chemical HACCP procedures are likely to result in many of the advantages previously identified for microbiological HACCP procedures: more effective, efficient and economical than conventional end-point-testing methods. However, the high costs of analytical monitoring of chemical contaminants and a limited understanding of formulation and process optimisation as means of controlling chemical contamination of foods are likely to prevent chemical HACCP becoming as effective as microbiological HACCP.

  9. Application of the Coastal Hazard Wheel methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment and management in the state of Djibouti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Rosendahl Appelquist

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment and management in a changing global climate on the state of Djibouti. The methodology termed the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW is developed for worldwide application and is based on a specially designed coastal classification system that incorporates the main static and dynamic parameters determining the characteristics of a coastal environment. The methodology provides information on the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding and can be used to support management decisions at local, regional and national level, in areas with limited access to geophysical data. The assessment for Djibouti applies a geographic information system (GIS to develop a range of national hazard maps along with relevant hazard statistics and is showcasing the procedure for applying the CHW methodology for national hazard assessments. The assessment shows that the coastline of Djibouti is characterized by extensive stretches with high or very high hazards of ecosystem disruption, mainly related to coral reefs and mangrove forests, while large sections along the coastlines of especially northern and southern Djibouti have high hazard levels for gradual inundation. The hazard of salt water intrusion is moderate along most of Djibouti’s coastline, although groundwater availability is considered to be very sensitive to human ground water extraction. High or very high erosion hazards are associated with Djibouti’s sedimentary plains, estuaries and river mouths, while very high flooding hazards are associated with the dry river mouths.

  10. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

    2018-02-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  11. Do French macroseismic intensity observations agree with expectations from the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Julien; Beauval, Céline; Douglas, John

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are the basis of modern seismic design codes. To test fully a seismic hazard curve at the return periods of interest for engineering would require many thousands of years' worth of ground-motion recordings. Because strong-motion networks are often only a few decades old (e.g. in mainland France the first accelerometric network dates from the mid-1990s), data from such sensors can be used to test hazard estimates only at very short return periods. In this article, several hundreds of years of macroseismic intensity observations for mainland France are interpolated using a robust kriging-with-a-trend technique to establish the earthquake history of every French mainland municipality. At 24 selected cities representative of the French seismic context, the number of exceedances of intensities IV, V and VI is determined over time windows considered complete. After converting these intensities to peak ground accelerations using the global conversion equation of Caprio et al. (Ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs): a global relationship and evaluation of regional dependency, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105:1476-1490, 2015), these exceedances are compared with those predicted by the European Seismic Hazard Model 2013 (ESHM13). In half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances for low intensities (IV and V) is within the range of predictions of ESHM13. In the other half of the cities, the number of observed exceedances is higher than the predictions of ESHM13. For intensity VI, the match is closer, but the comparison is less meaningful due to a scarcity of data. According to this study, the ESHM13 underestimates hazard in roughly half of France, even when taking into account the uncertainty in the conversion from intensity to acceleration. However, these results are valid only for the acceleration range tested in this study (0.01 to 0.09 g).

  12. Determinants of capital adequacy ratio in Kuwaiti banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moeidh Alajmi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify the effects of seven internal factors of five conventional Kuwaiti banks on capital adequacy ratio (CAR. The five factors are: Loans to Assets, Loans to Deposits, Non-Performing Loans to Total Loans, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Dividend Payout and Total Liability to Total Assets. The study covers the period from 2005 to 2013. The study shows that under fixed effect model, variables DIVIEDEND, LAR, LDR, NPLLR, and ROE do not have any impact on capital adequacy ratio. However, SIZE has a significant and negative relationship with capital adequacy ratio. Also, ROA shows a significant and negative relationship with capital adequacy ratio. Under random effect model, results indicate that CAR is adversely affected by bank’s SIZE (total liability to assets, and ROA has a significant and negative relationship with capital adequacy ratio, However, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR showed a significant and positive relationship with capital adequacy ratio. On the other hand, dividend payout, loans to assets, Non-Performing Loans to Total Loans and Return on equity do not have significant effect on CAR under random effect model.

  13. Assessment of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard at a power plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the tsunami hazard due to submarine earthquakes at a power plant site on the east coast of India. The paper considers various sources of earthquakes from the tectonic information, and records of past earthquakes and tsunamis. Magnitude-frequency relationship for earthquake occurrence rate and a simplified model for tsunami run-up height as a function of earthquake magnitude and the distance between the source and site have been developed. Finally, considering equal likelihood of generation of earthquakes anywhere on each of the faults, the tsunami hazard has been evaluated and presented as a relationship between tsunami height and its mean recurrence interval (MRI). Probability of exceedence of a certain wave height in a given period of time is also presented. These studies will be helpful in making an estimate of the tsunami-induced flooding potential at the site

  14. Hazard Communication Guidelines for Compliance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    OSHA's Hazard Communication Standard (HCS) is based on a simple concept that employees have both a need and a right to know the hazards and identities of the chemicals they are exposed to when working...

  15. Hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-02-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex (LC) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG ampersand G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and the DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes the hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility's operational emergency management program. The area surrounding the LC, the buildings and structures at the LC, and the processes that are used at the LC are described in this report. All hazardous materials, both radiological and nonradiological, at the LC were identified and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Asbestos at the Asbestos Pit was the only hazardous material that exceeded its specified threshold quantity. However, the type of asbestos received and the packaging practices used are believed to limit the potential for an airborne release of asbestos fibers. Therefore, in accordance with DOE Order 5500.3A guidance, no further hazardous material characterization or analysis was required for this hazards assessment

  16. Hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-02-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex (LC) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG&G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and the DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes the hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. The area surrounding the LC, the buildings and structures at the LC, and the processes that are used at the LC are described in this report. All hazardous materials, both radiological and nonradiological, at the LC were identified and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Asbestos at the Asbestos Pit was the only hazardous material that exceeded its specified threshold quantity. However, the type of asbestos received and the packaging practices used are believed to limit the potential for an airborne release of asbestos fibers. Therefore, in accordance with DOE Order 5500.3A guidance, no further hazardous material characterization or analysis was required for this hazards assessment.

  17. Has land subsidence changed the flood hazard potential? A case example from the Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. L. Chen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal areas are subject to flood hazards because of their topographic features, social development and related human activities. The Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan, is located nearby the Tokyo metropolitan area and it faces to the Pacific Ocean. In the Kujukuri Plain, widespread occurrence of land subsidence has been caused by exploitation of groundwater, extraction of natural gas dissolved in brine, and natural consolidation of the Holocene and landfill deposits. The locations of land subsidence include areas near the coast, and it may increase the flood hazard potential. Hence, it is very important to evaluate flood hazard potential by taking into account the temporal change of land elevation caused by land subsidence, and to prepare hazard maps for protecting the surface environment and for developing an appropriate land-use plan. In this study, flood hazard assessments at three different times, i.e., 1970, 2004, and 2013 are implemented by using a flood hazard model based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis with Geographical Information System techniques. The model incorporates six factors: elevation, depression area, river system, ratio of impermeable area, detention ponds, and precipitation. Main data sources used are 10 m resolution topography data, airborne laser scanning data, leveling data, Landsat-TM data, two 1:30 000 scale river watershed maps, and precipitation data from observation stations around the study area and Radar data. The hazard assessment maps for each time are obtained by using an algorithm that combines factors with weighted linear combinations. The assignment of the weight/rank values and their analysis are realized by the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. This study is a preliminary work to investigate flood hazards on the Kujukuri Plain. A flood model will be developed to simulate more detailed change of the flood hazard influenced by land subsidence.

  18. Price Earnings Ratio and Stock Return Analysis (Evidence from Liquidity 45 Stocks Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liem Pei Fun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio has been broadly used by analysts and investors for stock selection. Stocks with low PE ratio are perceived as having cheaper current price hence expected to generate higher return in subsequent period. This paper aims to examine predictability of stock return using PE Ratio based on historical relationship between PE Ratio and subsequent stock return. Particularly, it seeks to find whether stocks with high PE Ratio followed by low stocks return and on the contrary, stocks with low PE Ratio followed by high stocks return. Using stocks which are included as member of Liquidity 45 and observation period 2005-2010 as samples, results show that there is significance difference between low PE and high PE portfolio stock return in short term (holding period of 6 months but there is no significance difference between both portfolio stock return if they are hold for one, two, three, and four years. This research also finds that there is no significant relationship between stock return and (trailing PE Ratio which suggests that (trailing PE Ratio is not useful in estimating both short term and long term stock returns

  19. Binary Cepheids: Separations and Mass Ratios in 5 M ⊙ Binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Nancy Evans; Bond, Howard E.; Schaefer, Gail H.; Mason, Brian D.; Karovska, Margarita; Tingle, Evan

    2013-10-01

    Deriving the distribution of binary parameters for a particular class of stars over the full range of orbital separations usually requires the combination of results from many different observing techniques (radial velocities, interferometry, astrometry, photometry, direct imaging), each with selection biases. However, Cepheids—cool, evolved stars of ~5 M ⊙—are a special case because ultraviolet (UV) spectra will immediately reveal any companion star hotter than early type A, regardless of the orbital separation. We have used International Ultraviolet Explorer UV spectra of a complete sample of all 76 Cepheids brighter than V = 8 to create a list of all 18 Cepheids with companions more massive than 2.0 M ⊙. Orbital periods of many of these binaries are available from radial-velocity studies, or can be estimated for longer-period systems from detected velocity variability. In an imaging survey with the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3, we resolved three of the companions (those of η Aql, S Nor, and V659 Cen), allowing us to make estimates of the periods out to the long-period end of the distribution. Combining these separations with orbital data in the literature, we derive an unbiased distribution of binary separations, orbital periods, and mass ratios. The distribution of orbital periods shows that the 5 M ⊙ binaries have systematically shorter periods than do 1 M ⊙ stars. Our data also suggest that the distribution of mass ratios depends on both binary separation and system multiplicity. The distribution of mass ratios as a function of orbital separation, however, does not depend on whether a system is a binary or a triple. Based in part on observations made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained by the Space Telescope Science Institute. STScI is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS5-26555.

  20. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  1. Prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in pancreatic cancer: a comprehensive meta-analysis of 17 cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yongping; Cheng, Sijin; Fathy, Abdel Hamid; Qian, Haixin; Zhao, Yongzhao

    2018-01-01

    Several studies were conducted to explore the prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in pancreatic cancer and have reported contradictory results. This study aims to summarize the prognostic role of PLR in pancreatic cancer. Embase, PubMed and Cochrane Library were completely searched. The cohort studies focusing on the prognostic role of PLR in pancreatic cancer were eligible. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. Fifteen papers containing 17 cohort studies with pancreatic cancer were identified. The results showed patients that with low PLR might have longer OS when compared to the patients with high PLR (hazard ratio=1.28, 95% CI=1.17-1.40, P analysis model, ethnicity, sample size and cut-off value. Further analyses based on the adjusted potential confounders were conducted, including CA199, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, albumin, C-reactive protein, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, stage, tumor size, nodal involvement, tumor differentiation, margin status, age and gender, which confirmed that low PLR was a protective factor in pancreatic cancer. In addition, low PLR was significantly associated with longer PFS when compared to high PLR in pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio=1.27, 95% CI=1.03-1.57, P =0.03; I 2 =33%). In conclusion, it was found that high PLR is an unfavorable predictor of OS and PFS in patients with pancreatic cancer, and PLR is a promising prognostic biomarker for pancreatic cancer.

  2. Testing of January Anomaly at ISE-100 Index with Power Ratio Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şule Yüksel Yiğiter

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available AbstractNone of investors that can access all informations in the same ratio is not possible to earn higher returns according to Efficient Market Hypothesis. However, it has been set forth effect of time on returns in several studies and reached conflicting conclusions with hypothesis. In this context, one of the most important existing anomalies is also January month anomaly. In this study, it has been researched that if there is  January effect in BIST-100 index covering 2008-2014 period by using power ratio method. The presence of January month anomaly in BIST-100 index within specified period determined by analysis results.Keywords: Efficient Markets Hypothesis, January Month Anomaly, Power Ratio MethodJEL Classification Codes: G1,C22

  3. New Developments in Natural Hazard Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stötter, J.; Meißl, G.; Weck-Hannemann, H.; Veulliet, E.

    2003-04-01

    Natural hazard processes such as avalanches, debris flows, rockfalls, slides, slow mass movements and floods inherently threaten areas used for settlements, economic activities or transport in mountain regions like the Alps. In the recent past an increasing demand for new settlement, traffic and other land use areas has arisen, resulting in intensified utilization of land known to be threatened by natural hazard processes. In the same time a decrease of individual responsibility can be observed, leading to a growing call for protection by public authorities. As public financial resources become more limited in these days and the outsourcing of areas of traditional government responsibility increases, there is an urgent need for new, more effective and efficient strategies in natural hazard management, involving all relevant actors. To meet these new demands in dealing with natural hazards, the "alpS - Centre of Natural Hazard Management" was founded in October 2002 in Innsbruck/Austria, supported by the Austrian Government. Central goal of the alpS - Centre is to elaborate the basis for future sustainable safety of the alpine lebensraum. The following objectives will be addressed by an interdisciplinary team: - Systematic compilation and evaluation of the present situation. - Developing a more efficient and effective way of natural hazard management. - Implementation of a paradigm change. - Development of strategies for natural hazard management under changed frame conditions in the future (global change). Strong emphasis is laid on research on the socio-economic aspects of Natural Hazard Management, which have been more or less neglected up to now.

  4. The perception of hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The fourth chapter deals with the profusion of factors determining the differing assessment of hazards by our society. Subjective factors influencing risk perception comprise, among others, general knowledge and recognition of a hazard; the degree of voluntariness when taking the risk and its influencibility; the problem of large scale accidents; immediate and delayed results. Next to the objective and the subjective risks, the individual and the social or collective risks are assessed differently. The author dicusses in detail recent investigations into and study methods for the determination of risk perception, while eliminating systematic trends from subjective perception since common assessments are shared by whole groups of individuals time and again which allow a better understanding of today's handling of hazards. (HSCH) [de

  5. Sulfur polymer cement, a solidification and stabilization agent for hazardous and radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darnell, G.R.

    1992-01-01

    Hydraulic cements have been the primary radioactive waste stabilization agents in the United States for 50 years. Twelve years ago, Brookhaven National Laboratory was funded by the Department of Energy's Defense Low-Level Waste Management Program to test and develop sulfur polymer cement (SPC). It has stabilized routine wastes as well as some troublesome wastes with high waste-to-agent ratios. The Department of Energy's Hazardous Waste Remedial Action Program joined the effort by providing funding for testing and developing sulfur polymer cement as a hazardous-waste stabilization agent. Sulfur polymer cement has passed all the laboratory scale tests required by the US Environmental Protection Agency and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two decades of tests by the US Bureau of Mines and private concrete contractors indicate this agent is likely to exceed other agents in longevity. This bulletin provides technical data from pertinent tests conducted by these various entities

  6. The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Amelie, E-mail: acharles@audencia.co [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.darne@univ-nantes.f [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

    2009-11-15

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable.

  7. The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amelie; Darne, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

  8. The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Amelie [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

    2009-11-15

    This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

  9. 76 FR 16534 - Hazardous Waste Management System Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Final Exclusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... Waste Management System Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste; Final Exclusion AGENCY...) on a one-time basis from the lists of hazardous waste, a certain solid waste generated at its Mt... waste is [[Page 16535

  10. Probabilistic induction of delayed health hazards in occupational radiation workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamad, M.H.M.; Abdel-Ghani, A.H.

    2003-01-01

    Occupational radiation workers are periodically monitored for their personal occupational dose. Various types of radiation measurement devices are used, mostly film badges and thermoluminescent dosimeters. Several thousand occupational radiation workers were monitored over a period of seven years (jan. 1995- Dec. 2001). These included atomic energy personnel, nuclear materials personnel, staff of mediology departments (diagnostic, therapeutic and nuclear medicine) and industrial occupational workers handling industrial radiography equipment besides other applications of radiation sources in industry. The probably of induction of health hazards in these radiation workers was assessed using the nominal probability coefficient adopted by the ICRP (1991) for both hereditary effects and cancer induction. In this treatise, data procured are presented and discussed inthe light of basic postulations of probabilistic occurrence of radiation induced delayed health effects

  11. Mapping wind erosion hazard in Australia using MODIS-derived ground cover, soil moisture and climate data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, X; Leys, J

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes spatial modeling methods to identify wind erosion hazard (WEH) areas across Australia using the recently available time-series products of satellite-derived ground cover, soil moisture and wind speed. We implemented the approach and data sets in a geographic information system to produce WEH maps for Australia at 500 m ground resolution on a monthly basis for the recent thirteen year period (2000–2012). These maps reveal the significant wind erosion hazard areas and their dynamic tendencies at paddock and regional scales. Dust measurements from the DustWatch network were used to validate the model and interpret the dust source areas. The modeled hazard areas and changes were compared with results from a rule-set approach and the Computational Environmental Management System (CEMSYS) model. The study demonstrates that the time series products of ground cover, soil moisture and wind speed can be jointly used to identify landscape erodibility and to map seasonal changes of wind erosion hazard across Australia. The time series wind erosion hazard maps provide detailed and useful information to assist in better targeting areas for investments and continuous monitoring, evaluation and reporting that will lead to reduced wind erosion and improved soil condition

  12. 75 FR 57686 - Hazardous Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-22

    ... Waste Management System; Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste Amendment AGENCY: Environmental...) 260.20 and 260.22 allows facilities to demonstrate that a specific waste from a particular generating facility should not be regulated as a hazardous waste. Based on waste-specific information provided by the...

  13. 76 FR 51324 - Hazardous Materials: Incorporating Rail Special Permits Into the Hazardous Materials Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-18

    ... through use of electronic data interchange (EDI). The IVOHMA states ``differences in hazard communication... and on the possible effects EDI may have on distributing hazardous materials shipping paper... consider the use of EDI in other modes of transport in a future rulemaking. Petition No. P-1567 PHMSA...

  14. Occupational hazards to health of port workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yukun; Zhan, Shuifen; Liu, Yan; Li, Yan

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this article is to reduce the risk of occupational hazards and improve safety conditions by enhancing hazard knowledge and identification as well as improving safety behavior for freight port enterprises. In the article, occupational hazards to health and their prevention measures of freight port enterprises have been summarized through a lot of occupational health evaluation work, experience and understanding. Workers of freight port enterprises confront an equally wide variety of chemical, physical and psychological hazards in production technology, production environment and the course of labor. Such health hazards have been identified, the risks evaluated, the dangers to health notified and effective prevention measures which should be put in place to ensure the health of the port workers summarized. There is still a long way to go for the freight port enterprises to prevent and control the occupational hazards. Except for occupational hazards and their prevention measures, other factors that influence the health of port workers should also be paid attention to, such as age, work history, gender, contraindication and even the occurrence and development rules of occupational hazards in current production conditions.

  15. Earnings quality and P/E ratio: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the impacts of earnings quality criteria on the ratio of price to earnings per share (P/E on 88 accepted companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE over the period 2007- 2012. The results indicate that there was a positive and significant relationship between the P/E ratio and cash dividend. There is also a positive and significant relationship between P/E ratio as dependent variable and the gross profit ratio to sales. On the other hand, there is a significant reverse relationship between P/E ratio and the profit variability. However, no significant relationship exists between P/E as dependent variable and deferrals (accruals variable.

  16. Response to various periods of mechanical stimuli in Physarum plasmodium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umedachi, Takuya; Ito, Kentaro; Kobayashi, Ryo; Ishiguro, Akio; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

    2017-01-01

    Response to mechanical stimuli is a fundamental and critical ability for living cells to survive in hazardous conditions or to form adaptive and functional structures against force(s) from the environment. Although this ability has been extensively studied by molecular biology strategies, it is also important to investigate the ability from the viewpoint of biological rhythm phenomena so as to reveal the mechanisms that underlie these phenomena. Here, we use the plasmodium of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum as the experimental system for investigating this ability. The plasmodium was repetitively stretched for various periods during which its locomotion speed was observed. Since the plasmodium has inherent oscillation cycles of protoplasmic streaming and thickness variation, how the plasmodium responds to various periods of external stretching stimuli can shed light on the other biological rhythm phenomena. The experimental results show that the plasmodium exhibits response to periodic mechanical stimulation and changes its locomotion speed depending on the period of the stretching stimuli. (paper)

  17. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  18. Hazardous industrial waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quesada, Hilda; Salas, Juan Carlos; Romero, Luis Guillermo

    2007-01-01

    The appropriate managing of hazardous wastes is a problem little dealed in the wastes management in the country. A search of available information was made about the generation and handling to internal and external level of the hazardous wastes by national industries. It was worked with eleven companies of different types of industrial activities for, by means of a questionnaire, interviews and visits, to determine the degree of integral and suitable handling of the wastes that they generate. It was concluded that exist only some isolated reports on the generation of hazardous industrial wastes and handling. The total quantity of wastes generated in the country was impossible to establish. The companies consulted were deficient in all stages of the handling of their wastes: generation, accumulation and storage, transport, treatment and final disposition. The lack of knowledge of the legislation and of the appropriate managing of the wastes is showed as the principal cause of the poor management of the residues. The lack of state or private entities entrusted to give services of storage, transport, treatment and final disposition of hazardous wastes in the country was evident. (author) [es

  19. Anomalous short period geomagnetic variations at two stations in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunaratnam, K.

    1986-08-01

    An analysis of the rates of change in the geomagnetic field components in the period range 20-600 sec recorded at Kondavil and Hikkaduwa, two stations in the equatorial electrojet belt near the northern and south western coasts respectively of Sri Lanka, shows anomalous variations. The results confirm induced current concentration in the Palk Strait and deflection of induced currents around the southerncoast of Sri Lanka postulated by earlier workers from observations of SSC and Bay events at Indian stations and from analogue and numerical model studies. At Kondavil, which is situated close to the geomagnetic equator, no appreciable difference in the night-time and day-time values of ΔZ/ΔH and ΔD/ΔH ratios was noticed while at Hikkaduwa, a station situated under the edge of the equatorial electrojet belt, a day-time enhancement of ΔZ/ΔH ratios was found at all periods in the observed range. An enhancement of the H component at Colombo over that at Hikkaduwa was also found at short periods, the enhancement being greater at day-time. The day-time enhancement in the ΔZ/ΔH ratios at Hikkaduwa and in the ratio of the H components at Colombo and Hikkaduwa could be due to the effect of the equatorial electrojet on the short period variations. (author)

  20. Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, L.R.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for the PFP. DOE Orders require an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification

  1. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

    1983-03-01

    Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-