WorldWideScience

Sample records for period interestingly hydrometeorological

  1. Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Benoit

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available During the Special Observation Period (SOP, 7 September–15 November, 1999 of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP, the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2 was run in real time at a horizontal resolution of 3 km on a computational domain of 350☓300☓50 grid points, covering the whole of the Alpine region. The WATFLOOD model was passively coupled to the MC2; the former is an integrated set of computer programs to forecast flood flows, using all available data, for catchments with response times ranging from one hour to several weeks. The unique aspect of this contribution is the operational application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain. An overview of the system performance from the hydrometeorological aspect is presented, mostly for the real-time results, but also from subsequent analyses. A streamflow validation of the precipitation is included for large basins covering upper parts of the Rhine and the Rhone, and parts of the Po and of the Danube. In general, the MC2/WATFLOOD model underestimated the total runoff because of the under-prediction of precipitation by MC2 during the MAP SOP. After the field experiment, a coding error in the cloud microphysics scheme of MC2 explains this underestimation to a large extent. A sensitivity study revealed that the simulated flows reproduce the major features of the observed flow record for most of the flow stations. The experiment was considered successful because two out of three possible flood events in the Swiss-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked to the hydrological model and no flow events were missed. This study has demonstrated that a flow forecast from a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model can serve as a useful first alert and quantitative forecast. Keywords: mesoscale atmospheric model, hydrological model, flood forecasting, Alps

  2. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) in the period 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes always influenced human activities and caused great material damage or even loss of human lives. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. In this study, written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900. The taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, and the impacts on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about

  3. Hydrometeorological Automated Data System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Weather Service operates HADS, the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System. This data set contains the last 48...

  4. Hydrometeorological extremes at the Veselí nad Moravou estate (Czech Republic) in the period 1794-1850 derived from documentary evidence of the economic character

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2010-05-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes influenced always human activities (agriculture, forestry, water management) and caused losses of human lives and great material damage. Systematic meteorological and hydrological observations in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. Such direct and indirect information about hydrometeorological extremes is included in documentary evidence (e.g. chronicles, memoirs, diaries, early visual weather observations, newspapers, economic sources etc.). Documentary evidence of economic character belongs to the most important sources, especially documents related to taxation records. Damage to agricultural crops on the fields or damage to hay on meadows due to the hydrological and meteorological phenomena has been a good reason for the abatement of tax duty. Based on the official correspondence of the estate of Veselí nad Moravou (southern Moravia), archival information about taxation from the Moravian Land Archives in Brno was excerpted. Based on it, 46 hydrometeorological extremes which occurred between the years 1794 and 1850 were selected and further analysed. Because of fields and meadows of the above estate were located along the Morava River, reports of damage due to floods were the most frequent, followed by damage due to torrential rains and hailstorms.

  5. 26 CFR 1.1223-3 - Rules relating to the holding periods of partnership interests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... publicly traded partnership (as defined under section 7704(b)) may use the actual holding period of the... partnership interests. 1.1223-3 Section 1.1223-3 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE... Losses § 1.1223-3 Rules relating to the holding periods of partnership interests. (a) In general. A...

  6. Hydrometeorological Research in South Africa: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina M. Botai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of the world are of great concern, as they are closely linked to the wellbeing of humankind. Sophisticated hydrological prediction tools are required to assess climatic and hydrometeorological conditions, as they impact the sustainability of water resources as well as water availability. Research and data collection activities from multi-hydrometeorological sensors (e.g., gauges, radars, satellites form the basis for quantifying the impact of extreme episodes along the hydrologic phases that manifest in terms of the magnitude, duration and frequency of floods, droughts and other hydrometeorological hazards that affect water resources management. A number of hydrometeorological research activities have been reported in the literature by various researchers and research groups globally. This contribution presents (a a review of the hydrometeorology resource landscape in South Africa; (b an analysis of the hydrometeorology services and products in South Africa; (c a review of the hydrometeorological research that has been conducted in South Africa for the last four decades; and (d highlights on some of the challenges facing the sustained advancement of research in hydrometeorology in South Africa.

  7. Multifractal Conceptualisation of Hydro-Meteorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources management, technological or operational developments face a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydro-meteorological fields. It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of the observation scale and yield hydro-meteorological hazards. Throughout the world, the development of multifractal theory offers new techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide ranges of time and space scales. The resulting stochastic simulations with a very limited number of parameters well reproduce the long range dependencies and the clustering of rainfall extremes often yielding fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability distributions. The goal of this work was to investigate the ability of using very short or incomplete data records for reliable statistical predictions of the extremes. In particular we discuss how to evaluate the uncertainty in the empirical or semi-analytical multifractal outcomes. We consider three main aspects of the evaluation, such as the scaling adequacy, the multifractal parameter estimation error and the quantile estimation error. We first use the multiplicative cascade model to generate long series of multifractal data. The simulated samples had to cover the range of the universal multifractal parameters widely available in the scientific literature for the rainfall and river discharges. Using these long multifractal series and their sub-samples, we defined a metric for parameter estimation error. Then using the sets of estimated parameters, we obtained the quantile values for a range of excedance probabilities from 5% to 0.01%. Plotting the error bars on a quantile plot enable an approximation of confidence intervals that would be particularly important for the predictions of multifractal extremes. We finally illustrate the efficiency of such concept on its application to a large database (more than 16000 selected stations over USA and

  8. Hydrometeorological Database (HMDB) for Practical Research in Ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Novakovskiy, A; Elsakov, V

    2014-01-01

    The regional HydroMeteorological DataBase (HMDB) was designed for easy access to climate data via the Internet. It contains data on various climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, pressure, humidity, and wind strength and direction) from 190 meteorological stations in Russia and bordering countries for a period of instrumental observations of over 100 years. Open sources were used to ingest data into HMDB. An analytical block was also developed to perform the most common statistical ...

  9. Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys data are based on observations made by personnel for three river basins: Amu Darya, Sir Darya, and...

  10. Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2017-09-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

  11. Interesting Features of Ionization Potentials for Elements (Z ≤ 119) along the Periodic Table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Chun; Zeng De-Ling; Li Jia-Ming; Jin Rui; Yue Xian-Fang; Gao Xiang

    2016-01-01

    The ionization potential (IP) is a basic property of an atom, which has many applications such as in element analysis. With the Dirac–Slater methods (i.e., mean field theory), IPs of all occupied orbitals for elements with atomic number (Z ≤ 119) are calculated conveniently and systematically. Compared with available experimental measurements, the theoretical accuracies of IPs for various occupied orbitals are ascertained. The map of the inner orbital IPs with good accuracies should be useful to select x-ray energies for element analysis. Based on systematic variations of the first IPs for the outermost orbitals in good agreement with experimental values as well as other IPs, mechanisms of electronic configurations of all atomic elements (Z ≤ 119) along the periodic table are elucidated. It is interesting to note that there exist some deficiencies of the intermediate orbital IPs, which are due to electron correlations and should be treated beyond the mean field theory. (paper)

  12. Identifying and Evaluating Chaotic Behavior in Hydro-Meteorological Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soojun Kim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate chaotic behavior in hydro-meteorological processes. This study poses the two hypotheses to identify chaotic behavior of the processes. First, assume that the input data is the significant factor to provide chaotic characteristics to output data. Second, assume that the system itself is the significant factor to provide chaotic characteristics to output data. For solving this issue, hydro-meteorological time series such as precipitation, air temperature, discharge, and storage volume were collected in the Great Salt Lake and Bear River Basin, USA. The time series in the period of approximately one year were extracted from the original series using the wavelet transform. The generated time series from summation of sine functions were fitted to each series and used for investigating the hypotheses. Then artificial neural networks had been built for modeling the reservoir system and the correlation dimension was analyzed for the evaluation of chaotic behavior between inputs and outputs. From the results, we found that the chaotic characteristic of the storage volume which is output is likely a byproduct of the chaotic behavior of the reservoir system itself rather than that of the input data.

  13. Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2012-04-01

    During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and

  14. Parents are interested in newborn genomic testing during the early postpartum period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waisbren, Susan E; Bäck, Danielle K; Liu, Christina; Kalia, Sarah S; Ringer, Steven A; Holm, Ingrid A; Green, Robert C

    2015-06-01

    We surveyed parents to ascertain interest in newborn genomic testing and determine whether these queries would provoke refusal of conventional state-mandated newborn screening. After a brief genetics orientation, parents rated their interest in receiving genomic testing for their healthy newborn on a 5-point Likert scale and answered questions about demographics and health history. We used logistic regression to explore factors associated with interest in genomic testing and tracked any subsequent rejection of newborn screening. We queried 514 parents within 48 hours after birth while still in hospital (mean age (SD) 32.7 (6.4) years, 65.2% female, 61.2% white, 79.3% married). Parents reported being not at all (6.4%), a little (10.9%), somewhat (36.6%), very (28.0%), or extremely (18.1%) interested in genomic testing for their newborns. None refused state-mandated newborn screening. Married participants and those with health concerns about their infant were less interested in newborn genomic testing (P = 0.012 and P = 0.030, respectively). Degree of interest for mothers and fathers was discordant (at least two categories different) for 24.4% of couples. Interest in newborn genomic testing was high among parents of healthy newborns, and the majority of couples had similar levels of interest. Surveying parents about genomic sequencing did not prompt rejection of newborn screening.Genet Med 17 6, 501-504.

  15. Endogenous Money, Non-neutrality and Interest-sensitivity in the Theory of Long Period Unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Docherty

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by endogenous money in models with interest-sensitive expenditures. In particular, it examines the impact of endogenous money on a baseline neoclassical model arguing against the frequently asserted claim that traditional neoclassical macroeconomics is compatible with endogenous money. It demonstrates firstly that endogenous money is a sufficient condition to render unstable a neoclassical model characterised by interest-sensitive expenditures, full emp...

  16. Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2013-08-01

    Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its

  17. Recent floods in the Middle Ebro River, Spain: hydrometeorological aspects and floodplain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domenech, S.; Espejo, F.; Ollero, A.; Sánchez-Fabre, M.

    2009-09-01

    The Ebro River has the largest Mediterranean basin in the Iberian Peninsula and the third one by surface among those of the Mediterranean Sea. The middle stretch of this river is especially interesting because it constitutes a very economically important axis of population in a semi-arid environment context. Flooding processes are common in the Middle Ebro River, but the combination among decrease of discharges, dam construction and expansion and reinforcement of defences created an unusually quiet period as regards flooding events during the last quarter of the previous century. Nevertheless, with the turn of the century it seems that the Middle Ebro River has entered into new dynamics, with bigger and more frequent floods, the appearance of which has changed its seasonal nature. The most relevant examples are those of February 2003 and March-April 2007. The present paper examines these recent trends and discusses their possible causes from the points of view of hydro-meteorology, flood management through the use of reservoirs, and floodplain management. The consequences of recent floods in the Middle Ebro River have reopened the debate about possible risk management measures.

  18. Documentary evidence of economic character as a source for the study of hydrometeorological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.

    2009-04-01

    Various human activities, such as agriculture, forestry and water management, have always been influenced by climate variability and hydrometeorological extremes. From this reason historical economic records often include information about contemporaneous weather as well as descriptions of its impacts. This study deals with the interpretation of hydrometeorological extremes for the territory of Moravia (eastern part of the Czech Republic) derived from taxation records and reports of domain and estate administrators. Information obtained reflects the occurrence of floods, convective storms (including hailstorms), windstorms, late spring and early autumn frosts. Based on data from eight domains or estates, frequency series of floods and convective storms (including hailstorms) were compiled for the period 1650-1849. Detail analysis of disastrous weather event from 10 August 1694 in the Pernštejn domain is used to demonstrate the potential of such data for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts on human activity. Another example is analysis of data about tax reduction due to hailstorm damage on agriculture crops in Moravia in the period 1896-1906.

  19. Statistical variability of hydro-meteorological variables as indicators ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Statistical variability of hydro-meteorological variables as indicators of climate change in north-east Sokoto-Rima basin, Nigeria. ... water resources development including water supply project, agriculture and tourism in the study area. Key word: Climate change, Climatic variability, Actual evapotranspiration, Global warming ...

  20. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  1. 7 CFR 1810.1 - Information concerning interest rates, amortization, guarantee fee, annual charge, and fixed period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Information concerning interest rates, amortization... UTILITIES SERVICE, AND FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL REGULATIONS INTEREST RATES, TERMS, CONDITIONS, AND APPROVAL AUTHORITY Interest Rates, Amortization, Guarantee Fee, Annual Charge...

  2. "ChemMend": A Card Game to Introduce and Explore the Periodic Table While Engaging Students' Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martí-Centelles, Vicente; Rubio-Magnieto, Jenifer

    2014-01-01

    Deep knowledge of the periodic table is one of the most important keys to understand the basic principles of Chemistry. Memorizing the elements of the groups and periods is one of the most commonly used strategies to learn the position of each element in the periodic table; nevertheless, it is a hard task for most students. The use of card games…

  3. Reflections of History. Customs, Styles, Language and Interests as Seen through the Advertisements of Five Periods between the 1890's and the 1950's. Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procter and Gamble Educational Services, Cincinnati, OH.

    This unit of study, one of a series of eight, provides a method for students to study U.S. history through reviewing the advertising of specific periods to learn about customers, styles, language, and interests of specific eras. The advertising of the past chronicles everyday people and everyday life. Advertising is used to examine five periods in…

  4. Towards A Grid Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorological Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schiffers

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorological Study (DRIHMS is a coordinatedaction co-funded by the European Commission. DRIHMS analyzes the main issuesthat arise when designing and setting up a pan-European Grid-based e-Infrastructure for researchactivities in the hydrologic and meteorological fields. The main outcome of the projectis represented first by a set of Grid usage patterns to support innovative hydro-meteorologicalresearch activities, and second by the implications that such patterns define for a dedicatedGrid infrastructure and the respective Grid architecture.

  5. Highlights of advances in the field of hydrometeorological research brought about by the DRIHM project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caumont, Olivier; Hally, Alan; Garrote, Luis; Richard, Évelyne; Weerts, Albrecht; Delogu, Fabio; Fiori, Elisabetta; Rebora, Nicola; Parodi, Antonio; Mihalović, Ana; Ivković, Marija; Dekić, Ljiljana; van Verseveld, Willem; Nuissier, Olivier; Ducrocq, Véronique; D'Agostino, Daniele; Galizia, Antonella; Danovaro, Emanuele; Clematis, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The FP7 DRIHM (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology, http://www.drihm.eu, 2011-2015) project intends to develop a prototype e-Science environment to facilitate the collaboration between meteorologists, hydrologists, and Earth science experts for accelerated scientific advances in Hydro-Meteorology Research (HMR). As the project comes to its end, this presentation will summarize the HMR results that have been obtained in the framework of DRIHM. The vision shaped and implemented in the framework of the DRIHM project enables the production and interpretation of numerous, complex compositions of hydrometeorological simulations of flood events from rainfall, either simulated or modelled, down to discharge. Each element of a composition is drawn from a set of various state-of-the-art models. Atmospheric simulations providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts involve different global and limited-area convection-resolving models, the former being used as boundary conditions for the latter. Some of these models can be run as ensembles, i.e. with perturbed boundary conditions, initial conditions and/or physics, thus sampling the probability density function of rainfall forecasts. In addition, a stochastic downscaling algorithm can be used to create high-resolution rainfall ensemble forecasts from deterministic lower-resolution forecasts. All these rainfall forecasts may be used as input to various rainfall-discharge hydrological models that compute the resulting stream flows for catchments of interest. In some hydrological simulations, physical parameters are perturbed to take into account model errors. As a result, six different kinds of rainfall data (either deterministic or probabilistic) can currently be compared with each other and combined with three different hydrological model engines running either in deterministic or probabilistic mode. HMR topics which are allowed or facilitated by such unprecedented sets of hydrometerological forecasts

  6. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Valášek

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751–1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751–1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types include hailstorm (25.7%, torrential rain (21.7%, flood (21.0%, followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890 and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847. Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816–1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961–2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May–August and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance. Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  7. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751-1900 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-03-01

    Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  8. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  9. Central Asia Water (CAWa) - A visualization platform for hydro-meteorological sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stender, Vivien; Schroeder, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    (SAS) for sending alerts. An OpenSource web-platform bundles the data, provided by the SWE web services of the hydro-meteorological stations, and provides tools for data visualization and data access. The visualization tool was implemented by using OpenSource tools like GeoExt/ExtJS and OpenLayers. Using the application the user can query the relevant sensor data, select parameter and time period, visualize and finally download the data. [1] http://www.cawa-project.net

  10. A two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective optimization approach to hydrometeorological gauge network design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Pengcheng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2017-12-01

    Hydrometeorological data are needed for obtaining point and areal mean, quantifying the spatial variability of hydrometeorological variables, and calibration and verification of hydrometeorological models. Hydrometeorological networks are utilized to collect such data. Since data collection is expensive, it is essential to design an optimal network based on the minimal number of hydrometeorological stations in order to reduce costs. This study proposes a two-phase copula entropy- based multiobjective optimization approach that includes: (1) copula entropy-based directional information transfer (CDIT) for clustering the potential hydrometeorological gauges into several groups, and (2) multiobjective method for selecting the optimal combination of gauges for regionalized groups. Although entropy theory has been employed for network design before, the joint histogram method used for mutual information estimation has several limitations. The copula entropy-based mutual information (MI) estimation method is shown to be more effective for quantifying the uncertainty of redundant information than the joint histogram (JH) method. The effectiveness of this approach is verified by applying to one type of hydrometeorological gauge network, with the use of three model evaluation measures, including Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC), arithmetic mean of the negative copula entropy (MNCE), and MNCE/NSC. Results indicate that the two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective technique is capable of evaluating the performance of regional hydrometeorological networks and can enable decision makers to develop strategies for water resources management.

  11. Analisis Balance of Interest pada Aliansi Tiongkok dan Rusia dalam Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO Periode 2001-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candini Candanila

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Interaksi Cina dan Rusia di kawasan Asia Tengah, khususnya dalam kerangka kerjasama Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO, merupakan fenomena yang menarik untuk dikaji mengingat kedua negara tersebut tergolong sebagai great power, memiliki kepentingan yang hampir serupa di bidang energi dalam kawasan tersebut, namun memiliki political goals yang cukup berbeda. Tulisan ini mencoba mengkaji secara mendalam tentang bagaimana kesetimbangan kepentingan (balance of interest dari Cina dan Rusia di bidang energi beserta besarnya kapabilitas nasional dari kedua negara tersebut menjadi faktor penentu dalam pembentukan SCO bersama Kazakstan, Kirgistan, Tajikistan, dan Uzbekistan. Tulisan ini juga menunjukkan bagaimana political goals yang berbeda dapat dikesampingkan oleh negara-negara demi tercapainya kepentingan nasional mereka.

  12. Family archives as a source of information about past hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2014-05-01

    Meteorological and hydrological extremes (hydrometeorological extremes - HMEs) cause great material damage or even loss of human lives in the present time, as well as it was in the past. For the study of their temporal and spatial variability in periods with only natural forcing factors in comparison with those combining also anthropogenic effects it is essential to have the longest possible series of HMEs. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. Therefore, in order to create long-term series of such extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information. There exist different types of documentary evidence used in historical climatology and hydrology, represented by various sources such as annals, chronicles, diaries, private letters, newspapers etc. Besides them, institutional documentary evidence (of economic and administrative character) has particular importance (e.g. taxation records). Documents in family archives represent further promising source of data related to HMEs. The documents kept by the most important lord families in Moravia (e.g. Liechtensteins, Dietrichsteins) are located in Moravian Land Archives in Brno. Besides data about family members, industrial and agricultural business, military questions, travelling and social events, they contain direct or indirect information about HMEs. It concerns descriptions of catastrophic phenomena on the particular demesne (mainly with respect to damage) as well as correspondence related to tax reductions (i.e. they can overlap with taxation records of particular estates). This contribution shows the potential of family archives as a source of information about HMEs, up to now only rarely used, which may extend our knowledge about them. Several examples of such documents are presented. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern

  13. Radiation monitoring of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2008-01-01

    Network for air radioactivity monitoring was developed in the frame Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) since 1963. There are data available for many years for beta radioactivity of the air particulate and deposition. At present network consist from 26 monitoring points for measurement of dose rate and 3 monitoring points for aerosol monitors. Measuring instrument are placed in the professional stations of the selected parts of Slovakia. They are regularly verified and calibrated in the Slovak Institute for Metrology. Radiation monitoring in the SHMI is one part of the Environmental monitoring of Slovakia. All activities and operation of this system are financed from governmental budget of the Environmental monitoring. All information about this system are available on the web page http://enviroportal.sk/ in the part 'Informacny system monitoringu'. (authors)

  14. Radiation monitoring of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2009-01-01

    Network for air radioactivity monitoring was developed in the frame Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) since 1963. There are data available for many years for beta radioactivity of the air particulate and deposition. At present network consist from 26 monitoring points for measurement of dose rate and 3 monitoring points for aerosol monitors. Measuring instrument are placed in the professional stations of the selected parts of Slovakia. They are regularly verified and calibrated in the Slovak Institute for Metrology. Radiation monitoring in the SHMI is one part of the Environmental monitoring of Slovakia. All activities and operation of this system are financed from governmental budget of the Environmental monitoring. All information about this system are available on the web page http://enviroportal.sk/ in the part 'Informacny system monitoringu'. (authors)

  15. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  16. SET UP OF THE NEW AUTOMATIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL NETWORK IN HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. NAGy

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ and General Directorate of Water Management (OVF in Hungary run conventional precipitation measurement networks consisting of at least 1000 stations. OMSZ automated its synoptic and climatological network in 90’s and now more than 100 automatic stations give data every 1-10 minutes via GPRS channel. In 2007 the experts from both institutions determined the requirements of a common network. The predecessor in title of OVF is general Directorate for Water and Environment gave a project proposal in 2008 for establishment of a new hydrometeorological network based on common aims for meteorology and hydrology. The new hydrometeorological network was set up in 2012 financed by KEOP project. This network has got 141 weighing precipitation gauges, 118 temperature - humidity sensors and 25 soil moisture and soil temperature instruments. Near by Tisza-Lake two wind sensors have been installed. The network is operated by OMSZ and OVF together. OVF and its institutions maintain the stations itself and support the electricity. OMSZ operates data collection and transmission, maintaines and calibrates the sensors. Using precipitation data of enhanced network the radar precipitation field quality may be more precise, which are input of run-off model. Thereby the time allowance may be increased in flood-control events. Based on soil moisture and temperature water balance in soil may be modelled and forecast can be produced in different conditions. It is very important task in drought and inland water conditions. Considering OMSZ investment project in which new Doppler dual polarisation radar and 14 disdrometers will be installed, the precipitation estimation may be improved since 2015.

  17. Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Records: A New Method of Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livina, V. N.; Ashkenazy, Y.; Bunde, A.; Havlin, S.

    2007-12-01

    Climatic time series in general, and hydrological time series in particular, exhibit pronounced annual periodicity. This periodicity and its corresponding harmonics affect the nonlinear properties of the relevant time series (i.e., the long-range volatility correlations and width of multifractal spectrum) and thus have to be filtered out before studying fractal and volatility properties. We compare several filtering techniques (one of them proposed here) and find that in order to eliminate the periodicity effect on the nonlinear properties of the time series (i.e., the volatility and multifractal properties) it is necessary to filter out the seasonal standard deviation in addition to the filtering of the seasonal mean. The obtained results indicate weak volatility correlations (weak nonlinearity) in the river data, and this can be seen using different filterings approaches. [1] Livina~V.~N., Y.~Ashkenazy, A.~Bunde, and S.~Havlin, Seasonality effects on nonlinear properties of hydrometeorological records, in Extremes, Trends, and Correlations in Hydrology and Climate (ed. by J.P.Kropp & H.-J.Schellnhuber), Springer, Berlin, submitted.

  18. Hydrometeorological conditions preceding wildfire, and the subsequent burning of a fen watershed in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmes, Matthew C.; Thompson, Dan K.; Sherwood, James H.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2018-01-01

    The destructive nature of the ˜ 590 000 ha Horse river wildfire in the Western Boreal Plain (WBP), northern Alberta, in May of 2016 motivated the investigation of the hydrometeorological conditions that preceded the fire. Historical climate and field hydrometeorological data from a moderate-rich fen watershed were used to (a) identify whether the spring 2016 conditions were outside the range of natural variability for WBP climate cycles, (b) explain the observed patterns in burn severity across the watershed, and (c) identify whether fall and winter moisture signals observed in peatlands and lowland forests in the region are indicative of wildfire. Field hydrometeorological data from the fen watershed confirmed the presence of cumulative moisture deficits prior to the fire. Hydrogeological investigations highlighted the susceptibility of fen and upland areas to water table and soil moisture decline over rain-free periods (including winter), due to the watershed's reliance on supply from localized flow systems originating in topographic highs. Subtle changes in topographic position led to large changes in groundwater connectivity, leading to greater organic soil consumption by fire in wetland margins and at high elevations. The 2016 spring moisture conditions measured prior to the ignition of the fen watershed were not illustrated well by the Drought Code (DC) when standard overwintering procedures were applied. However, close agreement was found when default assumptions were replaced with measured duff soil moisture recharge and incorporated into the overwintering DC procedure. We conclude that accumulated moisture deficits dating back to the summer of 2015 led to the dry conditions that preceded the fire. The infrequent coinciding of several hydrometeorological conditions, including low autumn soil moisture, a modest snowpack, lack of spring precipitation, and high spring air temperatures and winds, ultimately led to the Horse river wildfire spreading widely and

  19. A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

  20. Joint System of the National Hydrometeorology for disaster prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J.; Cho, K.; Lee, Y. S.; Jung, H. S.; Yoo, H. D.; Ryu, D.; Kwon, J.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrological disaster relief expenditure accounts for as much as 70 percent of total expenditure of disasters occurring in Korea. Since the response to and recovery of disasters are normally based on previous experiences, there have been limitations when dealing with ever-increasing localized heavy rainfall with short range in the era of climate change. Therefore, it became necessary to establish a system that can respond to a disaster in advance through the analysis and prediction of hydrometeorological information. Because a wide range of big data is essential, it cannot be done by a single agency only. That is why the three hydrometeorology-related agencies cooperated to establish a pilot (trial) system at Soemjingang basin in 2013. The three governmental agencies include the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in charge of disaster prevention and public safety, the National Geographic Information Institute (NGII under Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) in charge of geographical data, and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in charge of weather information. This pilot system was designed to be able to respond to disasters in advance through providing a damage prediction information for flash flood to public officers for safety part using high resolution precipitation prediction data provided by the KMA and high precision geographic data by NGII. To produce precipitation prediction data with high resolution, the KMA conducted downscaling from 25km×25km global model to 3km×3km local model and is running the local model twice a day. To maximize the utility of weather prediction information, the KMA is providing the prediction information for 7 days with 1 hour interval at Soemjingang basin to monitor and predict not only flood but also drought. As no prediction is complete without a description of its uncertainty, it is planned to continuously develop the skills to improve the uncertainty of the prediction on weather and its impact

  1. HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE SINGKARAK BASIN, WEST SUMATRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasdi Subagyono

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Studi tentang karakteristik hidro-meteorologi telah dilakukan di wilayah danau Singkarak pada 2006-2007 dengan melibatkan partisipasi masyarakat. Stasiun iklim otomatis dan pengukur tinggi muka air otomatis dipasang untuk memonitor data hidrologi dan meteorologi di wilayah cekungan Singkarak. Data meteorologi dianalisa untuk mengetahui karakteristik iklim di wilayah sekitar danau. Model hidrologi GR4J dan H2U diaplikasikan untuk simulasi discharge dan untuk mengkarakterisasi proses hidrologi di wilayah danau. Simulasi model aliran divalidasi pada musim hujan. Alternatif pengelolaan lahan diformulasikan berdasarkan karakteristik hidrologi daerah aliran sungai di sekitar cekungan Singkarak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa daerah tangkapan di sekitar danau Singkarak memiliki respon yang tinggi terhadap jumlah dan intensitas hujan. Hidrograp menunjukkan peningkatan yang tajam dari discharge segera setelah curah hujan mulai dan menurun relative lamban ketika curah hujan berhenti. Untuk pengelolaan lahan secara berkelanjutan di wilayah danau Singkarak, konservasi lahan dan air harus menjadi prioritas utama. Wanatani dapat diimplementasikan sebagai alternatif sistem pertanaman oleh penduduk lokal. Karena potensi kelangkaan air bisa terjadi pada periode kering, panen air dan konservasi air dapat diterapkan sebagai opsi yang dapat dikombinasikan dalam sistem pengelolaan lahan.   Hydro-meteorological processes of the Singkarak basin has been studied involving participatory of local community in 2006-2007. Automatic weather station (AWS and automatic water level recorder (AWLR were installed to record meteorological and hydrological data within the Singkarak Basin. Meteorological data was analyzed to understand the meteorological characteristic surrounding the Basin area. Model of GR4J and H2U were used to simulated discharge and to understand the hydrological processes within the basin. The validation of simulated discharge was done in the wet season

  2. Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaard, Thom; Greco, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up.Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger-cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

  3. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Petr

    2007-02-01

    To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

  4. Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

  5. Effects of glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions on the glacial danger in Zailiyskiy Alatau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Medeu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A need to estimate a hazard of a mudflow stream appearance in the glacial-nival zone of the Northern slope of Zailiyskiy Alatau (Kasakhstan is now one of the really urgent problems. The objective of this study was to inves‑ tigate influence of glacial and hydrometeorological factors on the condition of snow-glacial zone of Zailiyskiy Alatau and find out a mudflow-forming role of the mudflow centers arising due to climate warming and degra‑ dation of glaciation: periglacial lakes, intramoraine channels and reservoirs, and also talik massifs of morainic deposits. We analyzed glacial processes in the Zailiysky Alatau over a long period using meteorological data of the Almaty weather station and its close correlations with data from weather stations in the mountains. The area of glaciations was found out to be reduced after the maximum of the Little Ice Age. A combined diagram of occurrence of the mudflow manifestations and factors causing them had been constructed on the basis of sta‑ tistical data on the landslide phenomena. Glacial mudflows were the most frequent in 1960–1990, and later on activity of them became weaker. We believe, that in the next 10–20 years, the glacial mudflow hazard in Zailiys‑ kiy Alatau can sharply decrease, but at the same time, a probability of occurrence of the rainfall mudflows can increase in the mountainous zone of the ridge due the increase of areas with melted moraine and slope deposits.

  6. Identification and diagnosis of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological structure of heavy precipitation induced floods in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, M.; Hao, X.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods have a long history of being an important cause of death and destruction worldwide. It is estimated by Munich RE and Swiss RE that floods and severe storms dominate all other natural hazards globally in terms of average annual property loss and human fatalities. The top 5 most disastrous floods in the period from 1900 to 2015, ranked by economic damage, are all in the Asian monsoon region. This study presents an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrometeorology, atmospheric science and state-of-the-art space-time statistics and modeling to investigate the association between the space-time characteristics of floods, precipitation and atmospheric moisture transport in a statistical and physical framework, using tropical moisture export dataset and curve clustering algorithm to study the source-to-destination features; explore the teleconnected climate regulations on the moisture formation process at different timescales (PDO, ENSO and MJO), and study the role of the synoptic-to-large atmospheric steering on the moisture transport and convergence.

  7. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  8. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  9. ICT-based hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Clematis, A.; Craig, G. C.; Kranzmueller, D.

    2009-09-01

    In the Lisbon strategy, the 2005 European Council identified knowledge and innovation as the engines of sustainable growth and stated that it is essential to build a fully inclusive information society. In parallel, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Hyogo, 2005), defined among its thematic priorities the improvement of international cooperation in hydrometeorology research activities. This was recently confirmed at the joint press conference of the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) with the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Secretariat, held on January 2009, where it was noted that flood and storm events are among the natural disasters that most impact human life. Hydrometeorological science has made strong progress over the last decade at the European and worldwide level: new modelling tools, post processing methodologies and observational data are available. Recent European efforts in developing a platform for e-science, like EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE), SEE-GRID-SCI (South East Europe GRID e-Infrastructure for regional e-Science), and the German C3-Grid, provide an ideal basis for the sharing of complex hydrometeorological data sets and tools. Despite these early initiatives, however, the awareness of the potential of the Grid technology as a catalyst for future hydrometeorological research is still low and both the adoption and the exploitation have astonishingly been slow, not only within individual EC member states, but also on a European scale. With this background in mind, the goal of the Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study (DRIHMS) project is the promotion of the Grid culture within the European hydrometeorological research community through the diffusion of a Grid platform for e-collaboration in this earth science sector: the idea is to further boost European research excellence and competitiveness in the fields of hydrometeorological research and Grid

  10. Interesting Interest Points

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aanæs, Henrik; Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup

    2012-01-01

    on spatial invariance of interest points under changing acquisition parameters by measuring the spatial recall rate. The scope of this paper is to investigate the performance of a number of existing well-established interest point detection methods. Automatic performance evaluation of interest points is hard......Not all interest points are equally interesting. The most valuable interest points lead to optimal performance of the computer vision method in which they are employed. But a measure of this kind will be dependent on the chosen vision application. We propose a more general performance measure based...... position. The LED illumination provides the option for artificially relighting the scene from a range of light directions. This data set has given us the ability to systematically evaluate the performance of a number of interest point detectors. The highlights of the conclusions are that the fixed scale...

  11. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts, as derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, AD 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2011-12-01

    Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period AD 1751-1900. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  12. Radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2005-01-01

    In 2000 Centre of Partial monitoring system 'Radioactivity of environment' was established on Slovak Hydrometeorology Institute (SHMI). Radiation monitoring network is one part of Radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Republic. At present SHMI operates in its monitoring network 23 detectors GammaTracer fy Genitron, one mobile detector and one stan by detector. All active detectors are placed in the professional meteorological stations in the selected parts of Slovakia. First one of these detectors was installed in 1999 and they replaced former type of detector (FAG). Last two detectors were installed in 2002. Detector GammaTracer has range of measurement from 20 nSv/h to 10 Sv/h. The detectors are calibrated every 2 years in the Slovak Institute of Metrology in compliance with the calibration plan. SHMI operates 4 aerosol monitors in Hurbanovo, Lucenec, Stropkov and Liesek. Filter 8 from these monitors are analysed in the Institute of Public Health (Cs-137, Be-7). On the base of bilateral agreement between the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water-Management and the Slovak Ministry of Environment Austrian side gave into the ownership of the Slovak side an automatic aerosol monitor AMS-02 including container and weather station. This monitor was installed in meteorological station Jaslovske Bohunice on 4-th October 2001. The Slovak Ministry of Environment provides the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water-Management with the readings of this monitor, free of charge, for at least 3 years and vice versa, the Austrian side gives the readings of the Austrian aerosol monitors to the Slovak Ministry of Environment free of charge. At present national monitoring center in Bratislava-Koliba is connected via ISDN line with Jaslovske Bohunice and Austrian center providing the data exchange. Radiation data (dose rate in the unit nSv/h) are collected via the Institute network to the MSS (message switch system) in the

  13. The Operational Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Prediction System at Meteo-France and its representation interface for the French Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI) : description and undergoing developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousset-Regimbeau, F.; Martin, E.; Thirel, G.; Habets, F.; Coustau, M.; Roquelaure, S.; De Saint Aubin, C.; Ardilouze, C.

    2012-04-01

    The coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is developed at Meteo-France for many years. This fully distributed catchment model is used in a pre-operational mode since 2005 for producing mid-range ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the 51-member 10-day ECMWF EPS. Improvements have been made during the past few years.. First, a statistical adaptation has been performed to improve the meteorological ensemble predictions from the ECMWF. It has been developped over a 3-year archive, and assessed over a 1-year period. Its impact on the performance of the streamflow forecasts has been calculated over 8 months of predictions. Then, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented in order to improve the initial states of these ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has been developped in the framework of a Phd thesis, and it is now evaluated in real-time conditions. Moreover, an improvement of the physics of the ISBA model (the exponential profile of the hydraulic conductivity in the soil) was implemented. Finally, this system provides ensemble 10-day streamflow prediction to the French National Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI). A collaboration between Meteo-France and SCHAPI led to the development of a new website. This website shows the streamflow predictions for about 200 selected river stations over France (selected regarding their interest for flood warning) , as well as alerts for high flows (two levels of high flows corresponding to the levels of risk of the French flood warning system). It aims at providing to the French hydrological forecaters a real-time tool for mid-range flood awareness.

  14. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  15. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. P. Guillod

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

  16. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-01-01

    Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

  17. ICT-infrastructures for hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment: the DRIHMS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Craig, G. C.; Clematis, A.; Kranzlmueller, D.; Schiffers, M.; Morando, M.; Rebora, N.; Trasforini, E.; D'Agostino, D.; Keil, K.

    2010-09-01

    Hydrometeorological science has made strong progress over the last decade at the European and worldwide level: new modeling tools, post processing methodologies and observational data and corresponding ICT (Information and Communication Technology) technologies are available. Recent European efforts in developing a platform for e-Science, such as EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE), SEEGRID-SCI (South East Europe GRID e-Infrastructure for regional e-Science), and the German C3-Grid, have demonstrated their abilities to provide an ideal basis for the sharing of complex hydrometeorological data sets and tools. Despite these early initiatives, however, the awareness of the potential of the Grid technology as a catalyst for future hydrometeorological research is still low and both the adoption and the exploitation have astonishingly been slow, not only within individual EC member states, but also on a European scale. With this background in mind and the fact that European ICT-infrastructures are in the progress of transferring to a sustainable and permanent service utility as underlined by the European Grid Initiative (EGI) and the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE), the Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study (DRIHMS, co-Founded by the EC under the 7th Framework Programme) project has been initiated. The goal of DRIHMS is the promotion of the Grids in particular and e-Infrastructures in general within the European hydrometeorological research (HMR) community through the diffusion of a Grid platform for e-collaboration in this earth science sector: the idea is to further boost European research excellence and competitiveness in the fields of hydrometeorological research and Grid research by bridging the gaps between these two scientific communities. Furthermore the project is intended to transfer the results to areas beyond the strict hydrometeorology science as a support for the assessment of the effects of extreme

  18. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  19. Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

    2017-07-01

    Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

  20. Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

  1. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

  2. Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

  3. Assessing Nature-Based Coastal Protection against Disasters Derived from Extreme Hydrometeorological Events in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavio Pérez-Maqueo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural ecosystems are expected to reduce the damaging effects of extreme hydrometeorological effects. We tested this prediction for Mexico by performing regression models, with two dependent variables: the occurrence of deaths and economic damages, at a state and municipality levels. For each location, the explanatory variables were the Mexican social vulnerability index (which includes socioeconomic aspects, local capacity to prevent and respond to an emergency, and the perception of risk and land use cover considering different vegetation types. We used the hydrometeorological events that have affected Mexico from 1970 to 2011. Our findings reveal that: (a hydrometeorological events affect both coastal and inland states, although damages are greater on the coast; (b the protective role of natural ecosystems only was clear at a municipality level: the presence of mangroves, tropical dry forest and tropical rainforest was related to a significant reduction in the occurrence of casualties. Social vulnerability was positively correlated with the occurrence of deaths. Natural ecosystems, both typically coastal (mangroves and terrestrial (tropical forests, which are located on the mountain ranges close to the coast function for storm protection. Thus, their conservation and restoration are effective and sustainable strategies that will help protect and develop the increasingly urbanized coasts.

  4. Application of hydrometeorological coupled European flood forecasting operational real time system in Yellow River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-qi Yan

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the application of the European flood forecasting operational real time system (EFFORTS to the Yellow River. An automatic data pre-processing program was developed to provide real-time hydrometeorological data. Various GIS layers were collected and developed to meet the demands of the distributed hydrological model in the EFFORTS. The model parameters were calibrated and validated based on more than ten years of historical hydrometeorological data from the study area. The San-Hua Basin (from the Sanmenxia Reservoir to the Huayuankou Hydrological Station, the most geographically important area of the Yellow River, was chosen as the study area. The analysis indicates that the EFFORTS enhances the work efficiency, extends the flood forecasting lead time, and attains an acceptable level of forecasting accuracy in the San-Hua Basin, with a mean deterministic coefficient at Huayuankou Station, the basin outlet, of 0.90 in calibration and 0.96 in validation. The analysis also shows that the simulation accuracy is better for the southern part than for the northern part of the San-Hua Basin. This implies that, along with the characteristics of the basin and the mechanisms of runoff generation of the hydrological model, the hydrometeorological data play an important role in simulation of hydrological behavior.

  5. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.

    2012-06-01

    It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR). Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS) networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data. Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps. This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in decision support systems and Civil

  6. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bedrina

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR. Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data.

    Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps.

    This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in

  7. Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqra Atif

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Upper Indus basin (UIB is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001–2015 and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05 decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·year−1 and −0.034 °C·year−1, respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05 increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·year−1. In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05 with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·year−1 and 0.192 mm·year−1, respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin had a stable trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07% year−1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.394% year−1. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly, the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the

  8. In pursuit of common interests: struggles and crisis of merchant conglomerate of Santafé de Bogotá at late colonial period

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Fernando Franco Rodríguez

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to show the existence in the city of Bogotá in the late eighteenth century and early nineteenth century of an important group of traders with great social, political and economic power that, acting as a body, ensured defending their interests before the viceregal authorities and the Consulado de Cartagena, and how that group broke up as a result of the political situation created by the crisis of the Spanish monarchy in 1808 and the independence of the Nuevo Reino de Granada.

  9. In pursuit of common interests: struggles and crisis of merchant conglomerate of Santafé de Bogotá at late colonial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Fernando Franco Rodríguez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to show the existence in the city of Bogotá in the late eighteenth century and early nineteenth century of an important group of traders with great social, political and economic power that, acting as a body, ensured defending their interests before the viceregal authorities and the Consulado de Cartagena, and how that group broke up as a result of the political situation created by the crisis of the Spanish monarchy in 1808 and the independence of the Nuevo Reino de Granada.

  10. Mathematical Modelling of Thermal Process to Aquatic Environment with Different Hydrometeorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alibek Issakhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model of the thermal process from thermal power plant to aquatic environment of the reservoir-cooler, which is located in the Pavlodar region, 17 Km to the north-east of Ekibastuz town. The thermal process in reservoir-cooler with different hydrometeorological conditions is considered, which is solved by three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and temperature equation for an incompressible flow in a stratified medium. A numerical method based on the projection method, divides the problem into three stages. At the first stage, it is assumed that the transfer of momentum occurs only by convection and diffusion. Intermediate velocity field is solved by fractional steps method. At the second stage, three-dimensional Poisson equation is solved by the Fourier method in combination with tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm. Finally, at the third stage, it is expected that the transfer is only due to the pressure gradient. Numerical method determines the basic laws of the hydrothermal processes that qualitatively and quantitatively are approximated depending on different hydrometeorological conditions.

  11. Entropy-based derivation of generalized distributions for hydrometeorological frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-02-01

    Frequency analysis of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes is needed for the design of hydraulic and civil infrastructure facilities as well as water resources management. A multitude of distributions have been employed for frequency analysis of these extremes. However, no single distribution has been accepted as a global standard. Employing the entropy theory, this study derived five generalized distributions for frequency analysis that used different kinds of information encoded as constraints. These distributions were the generalized gamma (GG), the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2), and the Halphen type A distribution (Hal-A), Halphen type B distribution (Hal-B) and Halphen type inverse B distribution (Hal-IB), among which the GG and GB2 distribution were previously derived by Papalexiou and Koutsoyiannis (2012) and the Halphen family was first derived using entropy theory in this paper. The entropy theory allowed to estimate parameters of the distributions in terms of the constraints used for their derivation. The distributions were tested using extreme daily and hourly rainfall data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) values were very small, which indicated that the five generalized distributions fitted the extreme rainfall data well. Among them, according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, generally the GB2 and Halphen family gave a better fit. Therefore, those general distributions are one of the best choices for frequency analysis. The entropy-based derivation led to a new way for frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes.

  12. Spatiotemporal analysis of hydro-meteorological drought in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Mou Leong; Chua, Vivien P.; Li, Cheng; Brindha, K.

    2018-02-01

    Assessment of historical hydro-meteorological drought is important to develop a robust drought monitoring and prediction system. This study aims to assess the historical hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin (JRB) from 1975 to 2010, an important basin for the population of southern Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were selected to represent the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Four absolute homogeneity tests were used to assess the rainfall data from 20 stations, and two stations were flagged by these tests. Results indicate the SPI duration to be comparatively low (3 months), and drier conditions occur over the upper JRB. The annual SSI had a strong decreasing trend at 95% significance level, showing that human activities such as reservoir construction and agriculture (oil palm) have a major influence on streamflow in the middle and lower basin. In addition, moderate response rate of SSI to SPI was found, indicating that hydrological drought could also have occurred in normal climate condition. Generally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation have greater impacts on drought events in the basin. Findings of this study could be beneficial for future drought projection and water resources management.

  13. Incorporating Sentinel-2-like remote sensing products in the hydrometeorological modelling over an agricultural area in south west France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivalland, Vincent; Gascoin, Simon; Etchanchu, Jordi; Coustau, Mathieu; Cros, Jérôme; Tallec, Tiphaine

    2016-04-01

    The Sentinel-2 mission will enable to monitor the land cover and the vegetation phenology at high-resolution (HR) every 5 days. However, current Land Surface Models (LSM) typically use land cover and vegetation parameters derived from previous low to mid resolution satellite missions. Here we studied the effect of introducing Sentinel-2-like data in the simulation of the land surface energy and water fluxes in a region dominated by cropland. Simulations were performed with the ISBA-SURFEX LSM, which is used in the operational hydrometeorological chain of Meteo-France for hydrological forecasts and drought monitoring. By default, SURFEX vegetation land surface parameters and temporal evolution are from the ECOCLIMAP II European database mostly derived from MODIS products at 1 km resolution. The model was applied to an experimental area of 30 km by 30 km in south west France. In this area the resolution of ECOCLIMAP is coarser than the typical size of a crop field. This means that several crop types can be mixed in a pixel. In addition ECOCLIMAP provides a climatology of the vegetation phenology and thus does not account for the interannual effects of the climate and land management on the crop growth. In this work, we used a series of 26 Formosat-2 images at 8-m resolution acquired in 2006. From this dataset, we derived a land cover map and a leaf area index map (LAI) at each date, which were substituted to the ECOCLIMAP land cover map and the LAI maps. The model output water and energy fluxes were compared to a standard simulation using ECOCLIMAP only and to in situ measurements of soil moisture, latent and sensible heat fluxes. The results show that the introduction of the HR products improved the timing of the evapotranspiration. The impact was the most visible on the crops having a growing season in summer (maize, sunflower), because the growth period is more sensitive to the climate.

  14. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    historic data access. These layers are also sufficient for a hydro-meteorological situation visualisations suitable for the country and division maps. The existing data and thematic layers were used to develop an Internet service providing the information concerning the hydro-meteorological posts. It also allowed presenting the results of the numerical weather forecast model in the Internet. It is planned to perform the visualisation of the hydro-meteorological phenomena in the monthly IMWM bulletin.

  15. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2012), s. 467-481 ISSN 1814-9324 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : documentary evidence * hydrometeorological extremes * tax alleviation * flood * hailstorm * torrential rain Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.556, year: 2012

  16. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  17. An End-to-End System to Enable Quick, Easy and Inexpensive Deployment of Hydrometeorological Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celicourt, P.; Piasecki, M.

    2014-12-01

    The high cost of hydro-meteorological data acquisition, communication and publication systems along with limited qualified human resources is considered as the main reason why hydro-meteorological data collection remains a challenge especially in developing countries. Despite significant advances in sensor network technologies which gave birth to open hardware and software, low-cost (less than $50) and low-power (in the order of a few miliWatts) sensor platforms in the last two decades, sensors and sensor network deployment remains a labor-intensive, time consuming, cumbersome, and thus expensive task. These factors give rise for the need to develop a affordable, simple to deploy, scalable and self-organizing end-to-end (from sensor to publication) system suitable for deployment in such countries. The design of the envisioned system will consist of a few Sensed-And-Programmed Arduino-based sensor nodes with low-cost sensors measuring parameters relevant to hydrological processes and a Raspberry Pi micro-computer hosting the in-the-field back-end data management. This latter comprises the Python/Django model of the CUAHSI Observations Data Model (ODM) namely DjangODM backed by a PostgreSQL Database Server. We are also developing a Python-based data processing script which will be paired with the data autoloading capability of Django to populate the DjangODM database with the incoming data. To publish the data, the WOFpy (WaterOneFlow Web Services in Python) developed by the Texas Water Development Board for 'Water Data for Texas' which can produce WaterML web services from a variety of back-end database installations such as SQLite, MySQL, and PostgreSQL will be used. A step further would be the development of an appealing online visualization tool using Python statistics and analytics tools (Scipy, Numpy, Pandas) showing the spatial distribution of variables across an entire watershed as a time variant layer on top of a basemap.

  18. Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the

  19. Impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands in 1706–1889 as derived from taxation records

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, H.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, č. 4 (2015), s. 465-488 ISSN 1212-0014 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-19831S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : historical climatology * ice-age * documentary * vulnerability * temperatures * europe * winter * hydrometeorological extremes * taxation records * damage * impacts * Bohemian-Moravian Highlands Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.415, year: 2015

  20. Radioactivity monitoring network of slovak hydrometeorological institute and its activity within the framework of nuclear emergency information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prochazkova, A; Trcka, T [Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratsislava (Slovakia)

    1996-12-31

    Slovak hydrometeorological institute (SHMI) radioactivity monitoring network is a part of nuclear radiation early warning system. This paper describes the aim and the structure of the monitoring system. Paper presents a short description of radioactivity monitoring network of SHMI and its connection with Austrian and German systems. It provides national means for the monitoring of the radiological effects of nuclear accident and for informing government departments and the public.(J.K.) 2 figs.

  1. Radioactivity monitoring network of slovak hydrometeorological institute and its activity within the framework of nuclear emergency information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prochazkova, A.; Trcka, T.

    1995-01-01

    Slovak hydrometeorological institute (SHMI) radioactivity monitoring network is a part of nuclear radiation early warning system. This paper describes the aim and the structure of the monitoring system. Paper presents a short description of radioactivity monitoring network of SHMI and its connection with Austrian and German systems. It provides national means for the monitoring of the radiological effects of nuclear accident and for informing government departments and the public.(J.K.) 2 figs

  2. Spatiotemporal variability of water and energy fluxes: TERENO- prealpine hydrometeorological data analysis and inverse modeling with GEOtop and PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, M.; Kunstmann, H.; Laux, P.; Mauder, M.

    2016-12-01

    In mountainous and prealpine regions echohydrological processes exhibit rapid changes within short distances due to the complex orography and strong elevation gradients. Water- and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere are crucial drivers for nearly all ecosystem processes. The aim of this research is to analyze the variability of surface water- and energy fluxes by both comprehensive observational hydrometeorological data analysis and process-based high resolution hydrological modeling for a mountainous and prealpine region in Germany. We particularly focus on the closure of the observed energy balance and on the added value of energy flux observations for parameter estimation in our hydrological model (GEOtop) by inverse modeling using PEST. Our study area is the catchment of the river Rott (55 km2), being part of the TERENO prealpine observatory in Southern Germany, and we focus particularly on the observations during the summer episode May to July 2013. We present the coupling of GEOtop and the parameter estimation tool PEST, which is based on the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg method, a gradient-based nonlinear parameter estimation algorithm. Estimation of the surface energy partitioning during the data analysis process revealed that the latent heat flux was considered as the main consumer of available energy. The relative imbalance was largest during nocturnal periods. An energy imbalance was observed at the eddy-covariance site Fendt due to either underestimated turbulent fluxes or overestimated available energy. The calculation of the simulated energy and water balances for the entire catchment indicated that 78% of net radiation leaves the catchment as latent heat flux, 17% as sensible heat, and 5% enters the soil in the form of soil heat flux. 45% of the catchment aggregated precipitation leaves the catchment as discharge and 55% as evaporation. Using the developed GEOtop-PEST interface, the hydrological model is calibrated by comparing

  3. Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amengual, A.; Romero, R.; Vich, M.; Alonso, S.

    2009-06-01

    The improvement of the short- and mid-range numerical runoff forecasts over the flood-prone Spanish Mediterranean area is a challenging issue. This work analyses four intense precipitation events which produced floods of different magnitude over the Llobregat river basin, a medium size catchment located in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain. One of them was a devasting flash flood - known as the "Montserrat" event - which produced 5 fatalities and material losses estimated at about 65 million euros. The characterization of the Llobregat basin's hydrological response to these floods is first assessed by using rain-gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) runoff model. In second place, the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) is nested within the ECMWF large-scale forecast fields in a set of 54 h period simulations to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for each hydrometeorological episode. The hydrological model is forced with these QPFs to evaluate the reliability of the resulting discharge forecasts, while an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on perturbed atmospheric initial and boundary conditions has been designed to test the value of a probabilistic strategy versus the previous deterministic approach. Specifically, a Potential Vorticity (PV) Inversion technique has been used to perturb the MM5 model initial and boundary states (i.e. ECMWF forecast fields). For that purpose, a PV error climatology has been previously derived in order to introduce realistic PV perturbations in the EPS. Results show the benefits of using a probabilistic approach in those cases where the deterministic QPF presents significant deficiencies over the Llobregat river basin in terms of the rainfall amounts, timing and localization. These deficiences in precipitation fields have a major impact on flood forecasts. Our ensemble strategy has been found useful to reduce the

  4. Hybrid Wavelet De-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, D.; Wang, Y.; Zeng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, Wavelet De-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

  5. Analysis of impacts on hydrometeorological extremes in the Senegal River Basin from REMO RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galiano, Sandra Garcia; Osorio, Juan Diego Giraldo [Technical Univ. of Cartagena, Dept. of Thermal Engineering and Fluids, Cartagena (Spain)

    2010-06-15

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability. The precipitation latitudinal gradient determines agricultural activities. The cultivated area of the Sahel is a densely populated region, whereas flood recession agriculture is practiced in the Senegal River Valley. The present study analyses both spatial-temporal rainfall patterns of the REMO Regional Climate Model (RCM) and observed rainfall data, focusing in particular on extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena. An analysis of simulated daily rainfall data was performed to determine the frequency and magnitude of length of dry spells, as well as the extreme rainfall events. A projected annual decrease in rainfall on horizon 2050 could be explained by two factors: the decrease in the percentage of rainy days on both west and north sides of the basin, and the decrease of precipitation amount for rainy days in the southern basin. Finally, an increase in the frequency of dry spell in the monsoon season by 2050 is projected. Such findings are significant in a framework of strategies for water resources management and planning at basin scale, in order to build adaptive capacity. (orig.)

  6. An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Eastman, Joseph L.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2007-01-01

    Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

  7. Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of

  8. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  9. Use of a scenario-neutral approach to identify the key hydro-meteorological attributes that impact runoff from a natural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2017-11-01

    Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for assessing the potential impact of climate change on water resource systems, as these approaches allow the performance of these systems to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. However, practical implementations of these approaches are still scarce, with a key limitation being the difficulty of generating a range of plausible future time series of hydro-meteorological data. In this study we apply a recently developed inverse stochastic generation approach to support the scenario-neutral analysis, and thus identify the key hydro-meteorological variables to which the system is most sensitive. The stochastic generator simulates synthetic hydro-meteorological time series that represent plausible future changes in (1) the average, extremes and seasonal patterns of rainfall; and (2) the average values of temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (uz) as variables that drive PET. These hydro-meteorological time series are then fed through a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate the potential changes in runoff as a function of changes in the hydro-meteorological variables, and runoff sensitivity is assessed with both correlation and Sobol' sensitivity analyses. The method was applied to a case study catchment in South Australia, and the results showed that the most important hydro-meteorological attributes for runoff were winter rainfall followed by the annual average rainfall, while the PET-related meteorological variables had comparatively little impact. The high importance of winter rainfall can be related to the winter-dominated nature of both the rainfall and runoff regimes in this catchment. The approach illustrated in this study can greatly enhance our understanding of the key hydro-meteorological attributes and processes that are likely to drive catchment runoff under a changing climate, thus enabling the design of tailored climate impact assessments to specific

  10. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2011-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling

  11. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  12. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

    2015-07-01

    This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

  13. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  14. The North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017: A New Look at an Old Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying moisture recycling and determining water vapor source regions for deep convective precipitation have been problematic, particular in tropical continental regions. More than an academic concern, modeling convective precipitation, from cloud-resolving to global climate models, depends critically on properly representing atmospheric water vapor transport, its vertical distribution, as well as surface latent heat flux contributions. The North American Monsoon region, given its complex topography, proximity to warm oceans, striking vegetation "green up" and oftentimes subtle dynamical forcing is particular challenging in this regard. Recent studies, employing modeling and observational approaches, give a prominent role for moisture recycling in fomenting deep convective precipitation. Likewise, these studies argue for the increased importance of transport from the Gulf of Mexico/Central America and the Atlantic Ocean, relative to the Pacific Ocean/Gulf of California. In this presentation, we critically review these studies which served to motivate the NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017, detailed here. This bi-national (Mexico-US) 3-month campaign to examine water vapor source regions, and specifically, land-surface water vapor fluxes consists of 10 experimental GPS meteorological sites as well as TLALOCNet and Suominet GPS sites in the Mexican states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Baja California and in Arizona and New Mexico. Near Rayón Sonora, inside the larger regional GPSmet array, a 30km eddy covariance flux tower triangular array, with collocated GPSmet, measures continuous energy fluxes and precipitable water vapor. Preliminary results examining the local flux contribution in the triangular array to total precipitable water vapor measured are presented. Further research is then outlined.

  15. Water cycle research associated with the CaPE hydrometeorology project (CHymP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchon, Claude E.

    1993-01-01

    One outgrowth of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment that took place in central Florida during July and August 1991 was the creation of the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project (CHymP). The principal goal of this project is to investigate the daily water cycle of the CaPE experimental area by analyzing the numerous land and atmosphere in situ and remotely sensed data sets that were generated during the 40-days of observations. The water cycle comprises the atmospheric branch. In turn, the atmospheric branch comprises precipitation leaving the base of the atmospheric volume under study, evaporation and transpiration entering the base, the net horizontal fluxes of water vapor and cloud water through the volume and the conversion of water vapor to cloud water and vice-versa. The sum of these components results in a time rate of change in the water and liquid water (or ice) content of the atmospheric volume. The components of the land branch are precipitation input to and evaporation and transpiration output from the surface, net horizontal fluxes of surface and subsurface water, the sum of which results in a time rate of change in surface and subsurface water mass. The objective of CHymP is to estimate these components in order to determine the daily water budget for a selected area within the CaPE domain. This work began in earnest in the summer of 1992 and continues. Even estimating all the budget components for one day is a complex and time consuming task. The discussions below provides a short summary of the rainfall quality assessment procedures followed by a plan for estimating the horizontal moisture flux.

  16. Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

    2013-04-01

    The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of

  17. Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

    2015-04-01

    In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach

  18. A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Borthwick, Alistair G; He, Handan; Wang, Yuankun; Zhu, Jieyu; Lu, Yuan; Xu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2018-01-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Supporting Hydrometeorological Research and Applications with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Products and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Vollmer, B.; Deshong, B.; MacRitchie, K.; Greene, M.; Kempler, S.

    2016-01-01

    Precipitation is an important dataset in hydrometeorological research and applications such as flood modeling, drought monitoring, etc. On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data. The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). GPM products currently available include the following:1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products (Level-2 and Level-3)3. GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar and their combined products (Level-2 and Level-3)4. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products (early, late, and final run)GPM data can be accessed through a number of data services (e.g., Simple Subset Wizard, OPeNDAP, WMS, WCS, ftp, etc.). A newly released Unified User Interface or UUI is a single interface to provide users seamless access to data, information and services. For example, a search for precipitation products will not only return TRMM and GPM products, but also other global precipitation products such as MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems), etc.New features and capabilities have been recently added in GIOVANNI to allow exploring and inter-comparing GPM IMERG (Integrated Multi-satelliE Retrievals for GPM) half-hourly and monthly precipitation

  20. TLALOCNet continuous GPS-Met Array in Mexico supporting the 2017 NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Salazar-Tlaczani, L.; Adams, D. K.; Vivoni, E. R.; Grutter, M.; Serra, Y. L.; DeMets, C.; Galetzka, J.; Feaux, K.; Mattioli, G. S.; Miller, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    TLALOCNet is a network of continuous GPS and meteorology stations in Mexico to study atmospheric and solid earth processes. This recently completed network spans most of Mexico with a strong coverage emphasis on southern and western Mexico. This network, funded by NSF, CONACyT and UNAM, recently built 40 cGPS-Met sites to EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory standards and upgraded 25 additional GPS stations. TLALOCNet provides open and freely available raw GPS data, and high frequency surface meteorology measurements, and time series of daily positions. This is accomplished through the development of the TLALOCNet data center (http://tlalocnet.udg.mx) that serves as a collection and distribution point. This data center is based on UNAVCO's Dataworks-GSAC software and also works as part of UNAVCO's seamless archive for discovery, sharing, and access to GPS data. The TLALOCNet data center also contains contributed data from several regional GPS networks in Mexico for a total of 100+ stations. By using the same protocols and structure as the UNAVCO and other COCONet regional data centers, the scientific community has the capability of accessing data from the largest Mexican GPS network. This archive provides a fully queryable and scriptable GPS and Meteorological data retrieval point. In addition, real-time 1Hz streams from selected TLALOCNet stations are available in BINEX, RTCM 2.3 and RTCM 3.1 formats via the Networked Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol (NTRIP) for real-time seismic and weather forecasting applications. TLALOCNet served as a GPS-Met backbone for the binational Mexico-US North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017 campaign experiment. This innovative experiment attempts to address water vapor source regions and land-surface water vapor flux contributions to precipitation (i.e., moisture recycling) during the 2017 North American Monsoon in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Arizona. Models suggest that moisture recycling is

  1. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Hydrometeorological variability in three neighbouring catchments with different forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Beatriz H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Hegger, Zita; Leemans, Rik

    2017-09-01

    Mountain areas are characterized by a large heterogeneity in hydrological and meteorological conditions. This heterogeneity is currently poorly represented by gauging networks and by the coarse scale of global and regional climate and hydrological models. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are found in a narrow elevation range and are characterized by persistent fog. Their water balance depends on local and upwind temperatures and moisture, therefore, changes in these parameters will alter TMCF hydrology. Until recently the hydrological functioning of TMCFs was mainly studied in coastal regions, while continental TMCFs were largely ignored. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on a TMCF which is located on the northern eastern Andes at an elevation of 1550-2300 m asl, in the Orinoco river basin highlands. In this study, we describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability, analyse the corresponding catchment hydrological response to different land cover, and perform a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties related to rainfall interpolation, catchment area estimation and streamflow measurements. Hydro-meteorological measurements, including hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, were collected from June 2013 to May 2014 at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover and less than 250 m elevation difference. We found wetter and less seasonally contrasting conditions at higher elevations, indicating a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. This pattern is similar to that of other eastern Andean TMCFs, however, the study site had higher wet season rainfall and lower dry season rainfall suggesting that upwind contrasts in land cover and moisture can influence the meteorological conditions at eastern Andean TMCFs. Contrasting streamflow dynamics between the studied catchments reflect the overall system response

  2. Activities of Hydrometeorologic Institute of Serbia - Belgrade, during the case of radioactive pollution of environment caused by the accident of nuclear power plant 'Chernobyl' in 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, Dj.

    2002-01-01

    The programme of 'Systematic testing of water quality' performed by Hydrometeorologic Institute of Serbia - Belgrade includes the measurement of total beta radioactivity on 33 sampling points. The measurement of total beta radioactivity is performed with instrument 'Lola - 4' produced by 'Institute for Nuclear Science - Vinca'. During the accident of Nuclear Power Plant 'Chernobyl' in 1986 arose the need to investigate the influence of this case on the environment of Belgrade and Serbia. In that respect a series of measurement of total beta radioactivity of rain water, surface waters, tap water and air were performed. Those measurements showed an increase of radioactivity of river waters. River Sava had radioactivity of 3,4 Bq/l (0,08 Bq/l in 1 9850 and river Danube 3-5 Bq/l (0,09 Bq/l in 1 985). High values of radioactivity were measured in the waters of highland accumulation lakes over 30 Bq/l. Rain water showed it's maximum of 52 Bq/l on 1 st and 2nd May l986 and it drooped to 0,3 Bq/l until 5th of June. Tap water showed it's maximum of 35,2 Bq/l on 12th May and it was reduced to 1 ,0 Bq/l on 2nd of June. Radioactivity of air showed it's maximum of 2,64 Bq/m 3 in the period 1 -3 May and in the period 5-8 May, 1 . - 1 ,57 Bq/m 3 . Measurement of river water radioactivity on 33 regular sampling points at the end of the year 1 986 showed that was no increase in comparison with the same measurements in 1 985. All mentioned results of the radioactivity of river waters and the waters of highland accumulations used to fall into ranges predicted by the model of the radioactive pollution distribution developed on the Imperial College -London. (author)

  3. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Reichle, Rolf H.

    2009-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by

  4. Toward Improving Predictability of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: the Use of Multi-scale Climate Modeling in the Northern High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Torres-Alavez, J.; Mohamad Abadi, A.; Walko, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Our goal is to investigate possible sources of predictability of hydrometeorological extreme events in the Northern High Plains. Hydrometeorological extreme events are considered the most costly natural phenomena. Water deficits and surpluses highlight how the water-climate interdependence becomes crucial in areas where single activities drive economies such as Agriculture in the NHP. Nonetheless we recognize the Water-Climate interdependence and the regulatory role that human activities play, we still grapple to identify what sources of predictability could be added to flood and drought forecasts. To identify the benefit of multi-scale climate modeling and the role of initial conditions on flood and drought predictability on the NHP, we use the Ocean Land Atmospheric Model (OLAM). OLAM is characterized by a dynamic core with a global geodesic grid with hexagonal (and variably refined) mesh cells and a finite volume discretization of the full compressible Navier Stokes equations, a cut-grid cell method for topography (that reduces error in computational gradient computation and anomalous vertical dispersion). Our hypothesis is that wet conditions will drive OLAM's simulations of precipitation to wetter conditions affecting both flood forecast and drought forecast. To test this hypothesis we simulate precipitation during identified historical flood events followed by drought events in the NHP (i.e. 2011-2012 years). We initialized OLAM with CFS-data 1-10 days previous to a flooding event (as initial conditions) to explore (1) short-term and high-resolution and (2) long-term and coarse-resolution simulations of flood and drought events, respectively. While floods are assessed during a maximum of 15-days refined-mesh simulations, drought is evaluated during the following 15 months. Simulated precipitation will be compared with the Sub-continental Observation Dataset, a gridded 1/16th degree resolution data obtained from climatological stations in Canada, US, and

  5. Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-11-01

    SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

  6. Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, Beban Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO, Return on Asset (ROA dan Net Interest Margin (NIM terhadap Financing Deposit Ratio (FRD di PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep (Periode 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cholida Noerainon

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Bank is an industry whose business activities relying on public confidence so that the health of banks is done by maintaining the quality so that the bank can meet its obligations and maintain its performance. The purpose bank will be realized if the bank is able to significantly improve their performance optimal. To be able to function properly, the banks should have enough capital, maintaining its asset quality with a good, well-managed and operated by the precautionary principle thus generate enough profit to maintain the continuity of its business and maintain its liquidity so that it can meet its obligations at any time. the purpose of this study is the first: To determine the effect of the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, Operating Expenses Towards Operating Income (OEOI, Return on Assets (ROA and Net Interest Margin (NIM simultaneously to the Financial to Deposit Ratio (FDR PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep. Second: To determine the effect of the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, Operating Expenses Towards Operating Income  (OEOI, Return on Assets (ROA and Net Interest Margin (NIM partially on Financial to Deposit Ratio (FDR PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep. Third: To determine which variables are the most dominant influencing on Financial to Deposit Ratio (FDR at PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep. In this research uses quantitative methods with the technique of multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS analysis tools, while proving the hypothesis using a calculation T test and F test. The data used is secondary data namely quarterly publication report documentation results. The research results shows that the variables CAR, OEOI, ROA and NIM simultaneously no effect  towards FDR PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep because Sig. > 0.05 and the value of Fcount

  7. Implicit User Interest Profile

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, K

    2002-01-01

    User interest profile presents items that the users are interested in. Typically those items can be listed or grouped. Listing is good but it does not possess interests at different abstraction levels - the higher-level interests are more general, while the lower-level ones are more specific. Furthermore, more general interests, in some sense, correspond to longer-term interests, while more specific interests correspond to shorter-term interests. This hierarchical user interest profile has obvious advantages: specifying user's specific interests and general interests and representing their relationships. Current user interest profile structures mostly do not use implicit method, nor use an appropriate clustering algorithm especially for conceptually hierarchical structures. This research studies building a hierarchical user interest profile (HUIP) and the hierarchical divisive algorithm (HDC). Several users visit hundreds of web pages and each page is recorded in each users profile. These web pages are used t...

  8. A Matter of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Paul

    2009-01-01

    In these days of financial turmoil, there is greater interest in depositing one's money in the bank--at least one might hope for greater interest. Banks and various trusts pay compound interest at regular intervals: this means that interest is paid not only on the original sum deposited, but also on previous interest payments. This article…

  9. Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

  10. Local adaptive capacity as an alternative approach in dealing with hydrometeorological risk at Depok Peri-Urban City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitrinitia, I. S.; Junadi, P.; Sutanto, E.; Nugroho, D. A.; Zubair, A.; Suyanti, E.

    2018-03-01

    Located in a tropical area, cities in Indonesia are vulnerable to hydrometeorological risks such as flood and landslide and thus become prone to the climate change effects. Moreover, peri-urban cities had double burden as the consequences of main city spill over and also lack of urban facilities in overcoming the disaster. In another perspective, the city has many alternative resources to recover, so its create urban resiliency. Depok city becomes a case study of this research regarding with its development following the impact of Jakarta growth. This research purposes to capture how the local city dwellers could anticipate and adaptive with flood and landslide with their own mitigation version. Through mix method and spatial analysis using GIS techniques, it derives the two comparison approach, the normative and alternative that had been done by the city dwellers. It uses a spatial analysis to have a big picture of Depok and its environmental changing. It also divided into 4 local group of communities as a representative of city dwellers regarding the characteristic of a settlement with their level of risk. The result found type or characteristic of settlement which influenced the local adaptive capacity, from the establishment of infrastructure, health fulfillment and social livelihood with different kind of methods.

  11. Interest rate derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenstrup, Mikkel

    This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained essays on valuation of interest rate derivatives. In particular derivatives related to management of interest rate risk care are considered.......This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained essays on valuation of interest rate derivatives. In particular derivatives related to management of interest rate risk care are considered....

  12. Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

  13. Real interest parity decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Luiz Ferreira

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the general causes of real interest rate differentials (rids for a sample of emerging markets for the period of January 1996 to August 2007. To this end, two methods are applied. The first consists of breaking the variance of rids down into relative purchasing power pariety and uncovered interest rate parity and shows that inflation differentials are the main source of rids variation; while the second method breaks down the rids and nominal interest rate differentials (nids into nominal and real shocks. Bivariate autoregressive models are estimated under particular identification conditions, having been adequately treated for the identified structural breaks. Impulse response functions and error variance decomposition result in real shocks as being the likely cause of rids.O objetivo deste artigo é investigar as causas gerais dos diferenciais da taxa de juros real (rids para um conjunto de países emergentes, para o período de janeiro de 1996 a agosto de 2007. Para tanto, duas metodologias são aplicadas. A primeira consiste em decompor a variância dos rids entre a paridade do poder de compra relativa e a paridade de juros a descoberto e mostra que os diferenciais de inflação são a fonte predominante da variabilidade dos rids; a segunda decompõe os rids e os diferenciais de juros nominais (nids em choques nominais e reais. Sob certas condições de identificação, modelos autorregressivos bivariados são estimados com tratamento adequado para as quebras estruturais identificadas e as funções de resposta ao impulso e a decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão são obtidas, resultando em evidências favoráveis a que os choques reais são a causa mais provável dos rids.

  14. ISTSOS, SENSOR OBSERVATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: A REAL CASE APPLICATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR FLOOD PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cannata

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available istSOS (Istituto scienze della Terra Sensor Observation Service is an implementation of the Sensor Observation Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. The development of istSOS started in 2009 in order to provide a simple implementation of the Sensor Observation Service (SOS standard for the management, provision and integration of hydro-meteorological data collected in Canton Ticino (Southern Switzerland. istSOS is entirely written in Python and is based on reliable open source software like PostgreSQL/PostGIS and Apache/mod_wsgi. The authors during this presentation want to illustrate the latest software enhancements together with a real case in a production environment. Latest software enhancement includes the development of a RESTful service and of a Web-based graphical user interface that allows hydrologists a better interaction with measurements. This includes the ability of new services creation, addition of new sensors and relative metadata, visualization and manipulation of stored observations, registration of new measures and setting of system properties like observable properties and data quality codes. The study will show a real case application of the system for the provision of data to interregional partners and to a hydrological model for lake level forecasting and flooding hazard assessment. The hydrological model uses a combination of WPS (Web Processing Service and SOS for the generation of model input data. This system is linked with a dedicated geo-portal used by the civil protection for the management, alert and protection of population and assets of the Locarno area (Verbano Lake flooding. Practical considerations and technical issues will be presented and discussed.

  15. Extreme hydrometeorological events in the Peruvian Central Andes during austral summer and their relationship with the large-scale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, Juan C.

    In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme rainfall events of the opposite sign occur over northeastern Brazil (NEB) due to enhanced (inhibited) convective activity in conjunction with a strengthened (weakened) Nordeste Low. Cold episodes in the Mantaro Basin are grouped in three types: weak, strong and extraordinary cold episodes. Weak and strong cold episodes in the MB are mainly associated with a weakening of the BH-NL system due to tropical-extratropical interactions. Both types of cold episodes are associated with westerly wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels aloft the Peruvian Central Andes, which inhibit the influx of humid air masses from the lowlands to the east and hence limit the potential for development of convective cloud cover. The resulting clear sky conditions cause nighttime temperatures to drop, leading to cold extremes below the 10-percentile. Extraordinary cold episodes in the MB are associated with cold and dry polar air advection at all tropospheric levels toward the central Peruvian Andes. Therefore, weak and strong cold episodes in the MB appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection, while the latter plays an important role for extraordinary cold episodes only.

  16. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Altava-Ortiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  17. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Barnolas, M.; López, L.; Altava-Ortiz, V.

    2009-07-01

    This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  18. Points of Interest: What Determines Interest Rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Tim

    Interest rates can significantly influence people's behavior. When rates decline, homeowners rush to buy new homes and refinance old mortgages; automobile buyers scramble to buy new cars; the stock market soars, and people tend to feel more optimistic about the future. But even though individuals respond to changes in rates, they may not fully…

  19. Interest Rate Swaps

    OpenAIRE

    Marina Pepic

    2014-01-01

    Interest rates changes have a huge impact on the business performance. Therefore, it is of great importance for the market participants to identify and adequately manage this risk. Financial derivatives are a relatively simple way of protection from adverse changes in interest rates. Interest rate swaps are particularly popular because they reduce interest rate risk to a minimum with a relatively low initial cost and without great risk, but also because of the fact that there are many modific...

  20. Understanding Interest Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Volker, Desi

    2016-01-01

    This thesis is the result of my Ph.D. studies at the Department of Finance of the Copenhagen Business School. It consists of three essays covering topics related to the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate volatility. The rst essay, \\Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Interest Rates", examines the role of monetary policy uncertainty on the term structure of interest rates. The second essay, \\A Regime-Switching A ne Term Structure Model with Stochast...

  1. Genetic analysis of seasonal runoff based on automatic techniques of hydrometeorological data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kireeva, Maria; Sazonov, Alexey; Rets, Ekaterina; Ezerova, Natalia; Frolova, Natalia; Samsonov, Timofey

    2017-04-01

    Detection of the rivers' feeding type is a complex and multifactor task. Such partitioning should be based, on the one hand, on the genesis of the feeding water, on the other hand, on its physical path. At the same time it should consider relationship of the feeding type with corresponding phase of the water regime. Due to the above difficulties and complexity of the approach, there are many different variants of separation of flow hydrograph for feeding types. The most common method is extraction of so called basic component which in one way or another reflects groundwater feeding of the river. In this case, the selection most often is based on the principle of local minima or graphic separation of this component. However, in this case neither origin of the water nor corresponding phase of water regime is considered. In this paper, the authors offer a method of complex automated analysis of genetic components of the river's feeding together with the separation of specific phases of the water regime. The objects of the study are medium and large rivers of European Russia having a pronounced spring flood, formed due to melt water, and summer-autumn and winter low water which is periodically interrupted by rain or thaw flooding. The method is based on genetic separation of hydrograph proposed in 1960s years by B. I. Kudelin. This technique is considered for large rivers having hydraulic connection with groundwater horizons during flood. For better detection of floods genesis the analysis involves reanalysis data on temperature and precipitation. Separation is based on the following fundamental graphic-analytical principles: • Ground feeding during the passage of flood peak tends to zero • Beginning of the flood is determined as the exceeding of critical value of low water discharge • Flood periods are determined on the basis of exceeding the critical low-water discharge; they relate to thaw in case of above-zero temperatures • During thaw and rain floods

  2. The great drought of 1507 in Hungary: Combined hydrometeorological extremes and their reported consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A contemporary Buda citizen marked 1507 in his diary as the year of the very great drought in Hungary, resulting a significant shortage of crops, wine and hay. In the same time, a rather extensive set of evidence about this drought - combined with other natural hazards such as hails, thunderstorms, (convective) rains, flood(s) - and their consequences, concerning a large area in the central and north-eastern parts of the Carpathian Basin, were also described in the account book of the bishop of Eger. In the poster presentation, the following questions are discussed in more detail: 1) the types of the hazards and extreme events that affected the study area in 1507 (and probably also in 1506 and 1508); 2) locations and the extension of areas affected by the extreme events: more (and less) affected areas, spatial differences and overlaps; 3) damages and other immediate consequences: material loss (building), bad harvests (e.g. grain, honey), high prices; 4) multiannual consequences and the importance of 1508: further natural hazards, shortages of food and animal products, poverty, tax reduction - and the perception of these events; 5) Central European parallels (e.g. drought in the southern German areas, destructive hailstorms in Austria). The presented case study provides an especially well-documented example (reported in different contemporary source types) for a late medieval drought year (or dry period) occurred in East Central Europe: the drought was accompanied by other, mainly convective events that affected agriculture and society in numerous ways. Based on the sometimes more detailed, sometimes fragmentary information we can state that - in spite of the general reference(s) on the "very great drought in the country" - considerable spatial differences occurred both concerning the severity and the type of events that affected extensive areas (but not necessarily the entire country that covered most of the Carpathian Basin at that time).

  3. Modeling detailed hydro-meteorological surfaces and runoff response in large diverse watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.; Kienzle, S.W.; MacDonald, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in diverse environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydroclimate dataset for diverse watersheds using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil water storage and runoff from the basin. Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. In further work we will apply spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change for watersheds in Canada and beyond. (author)

  4. Understanding Interest Rate Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volker, Desi

    This thesis is the result of my Ph.D. studies at the Department of Finance of the Copenhagen Business School. It consists of three essays covering topics related to the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate volatility. The rst essay, \\Monetary Policy Uncertainty...... and Interest Rates", examines the role of monetary policy uncertainty on the term structure of interest rates. The second essay, \\A Regime-Switching A ne Term Structure Model with Stochastic Volatility" (co-authored with Sebastian Fux), investigates the ability of the class of regime switching models...... with and without stochastic volatility to capture the main stylized features of U.S. interest rates. The third essay, \\Variance Risk Premia in the Interest Rate Swap Market", investigates the time-series and cross-sectional properties of the compensation demanded for holding interest rate variance risk. The essays...

  5. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  6. The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Katia De Avila

    My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino

  7. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending

  8. Problem Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ovary syndrome. Read our information on PCOS for teens , and see your doctor if you think you may have PCOS. Major weight loss. Girls who have anorexia will often stop having periods. When to see ...

  9. Interest Rates and Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Coopersmith, Michael; Gambardella, Pascal J.

    2016-01-01

    This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between the difference of the nominal interest rate and its inflation adjusted value to eliminate the inflation rate and obtain a delay differential equation. We provide computer simulated solutions for this equation over regimes of interest. This paper could be of ...

  10. Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Pepić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Interest rates changes have a huge impact on the business performance. Therefore, it is of great importance for the market participants to identify and adequately manage this risk. Financial derivatives are a relatively simple way of protection from adverse changes in interest rates. Interest rate swaps are particularly popular because they reduce interest rate risk to a minimum with a relatively low initial cost and without great risk, but also because of the fact that there are manymodifications of the standard swap created to better satisfy the different needs of market players.

  11. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

  12. Effects of high spatial and temporal resolution Earth observations on simulated hydrometeorological variables in a cropland (southwestern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Etchanchu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural landscapes are often constituted by a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes and must be taken into account in simulations of land surface and distributed hydrological models. The Sentinel-2 mission allows for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes via the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA land surface model included in the EXternalized SURface (SURFEX modeling platform. The study focuses on the effect of the leaf area index (LAI spatial and temporal variability on these fluxes. We compare the use of the LAI climatology from ECOCLIMAP-II, used by default in SURFEX-ISBA, and time series of LAI derived from the high-resolution Formosat-2 satellite data (8 m. The study area is an agricultural zone in southwestern France covering 576 km2 (24 km  ×  24 km. An innovative plot-scale approach is used, in which each computational unit has a homogeneous vegetation type. Evaluation of the simulations quality is done by comparing model outputs with in situ eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux (LE. Our results show that the use of LAI derived from high-resolution remote sensing significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when the surface is covered with summer crops. The comparison with in situ measurements shows an improvement of roughly 0.3 in the correlation coefficient and a decrease of around 30 % of the root mean square error (RMSE in the simulated evapotranspiration. This

  13. A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons

  14. Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    (-0.6°C/100m). The streamflow ensembles are post-processed to improve sharpness and generate calibrated forecasts. The skill of combinations of pre- and post-processed hydro-meteorological ensembles are further analyzed focusing on high streamflow and floods.

  15. Pushing Boreal Headwaters: Responses of Dissolved Organic Carbon to Increased Hydro-Meteorological Forcing by Forest Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelker, J.; Grabs, T. J.; Bishop, K. H.; Laudon, H.

    2012-12-01

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in stream water show large variations as a response to disturbances such as forestry operations. We used a paired catchment experiment in northern Sweden which shows well quantified increases of DOC concentrations and C-exports as a result of forest harvesting. To identify the drivers of these increases, a physically-based process model (Riparian Flow Integration Model, RIM) was used to inversely simulate the DOC availability in the peat-rich riparian soils of the catchments. DOC availability in soils followed a seasonal signal paralleling the seasonality of soil-temperatures (min: February; max: August) during 2005-2011. Further, high-frequency event sampling of DOC during spring and summer seasons of 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively, revealed that event size acted as a secondary control of DOC in streams: Spring snowmelt events (as well as one major event in 2009) showed clockwise hysteresis, whereas minor runoff episodes during summer (when DOC availability in soils was highest) were characterized by a counterclockwise behavior. The higher hydro-meteorological forcing consisting of increases of soil temperature and soil moisture after the forest removal governed additional increases in DOC availability in soils. The higher DOC concentrations observed in streams after forest harvesting can therefore be ascribed to i) the increased climatic forcing comprising higher water flows through riparian soils, ii) increased soil temperatures and soil moisture, respectively, favoring an increased production of DOC, and iii) additional variation by event size. Overall these results underline the large impact of forestry operations on stream water quality as well as DOC exports leaving managed boreal forests. Simulated and measured soil water TOC concentration profiles within the three Balsjö catchments (CC-4 = clear-cut with 67% harvest; NO-5 = 35% harvest; NR-7 = northern reference). The simulated curves represent the

  16. Interest rates mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, M.; Maignan, M.; Pozdnoukhov, A.; Timonin, V.

    2008-06-01

    The present study deals with the analysis and mapping of Swiss franc interest rates. Interest rates depend on time and maturity, defining term structure of the interest rate curves (IRC). In the present study IRC are considered in a two-dimensional feature space-time and maturity. Exploratory data analysis includes a variety of tools widely used in econophysics and geostatistics. Geostatistical models and machine learning algorithms (multilayer perceptron and Support Vector Machines) were applied to produce interest rate maps. IR maps can be used for the visualisation and pattern perception purposes, to develop and to explore economical hypotheses, to produce dynamic asset-liability simulations and for financial risk assessments. The feasibility of an application of interest rates mapping approach for the IRC forecasting is considered as well.

  17. Interest Rates and Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Coopersmith, Michael

    2011-01-01

    A relation between interest rates and inflation is presented using a two component economic model and a simple general principle. Preliminary results indicate a remarkable similarity to classical economic theories, in particular that of Wicksell.

  18. INTEREST AND READING MOTIVATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhamdu Alhamdu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between interest and reading motivation based on literature review. The concept of the interest portrayed as a psychological state that occurs during interaction between individual and specific topic, object or activity including process of willingness, increased attention, concentration and positive feeling to the topic, object or activity. Meanwhile reading motivation emphasized to mental readiness, willingness and refers to beliefs and perception of individual to engage in reading activity. Some researchers were identified factors that influenced reading motivation such as intrinsic and extrinsic factors, self-concept and value of reading, and interest. In general, the literature review described that have positive relationship between interest and reading motivation.

  19. Debenture Interest Rates

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — Interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Commissioner under the provisions of the National...

  20. The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890–3770 m a.s.l. in the Ötztal Alps (Austria with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Strasser

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria. The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l. to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch, all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the

  1. The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890-3770 m a.s.l.) in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Braun, Ludwig; Escher-Vetter, Heidi; Juen, Irmgard; Kuhn, Michael; Maussion, Fabien; Mayer, Christoph; Nicholson, Lindsey; Niedertscheider, Klaus; Sailer, Rudolf; Stötter, Johann; Weber, Markus; Kaser, Georg

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891-3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial) laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l.) to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch), all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the Creative Commons Attribution

  2. EDITORIAL: Interesting times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson Honorary Editor, Ken

    1996-01-01

    `May you live in interesting times' - old Chinese curse. First, many thanks to John Avison, the retiring Honorary Editor, for his hard work over the last five years, and the steady development in style and content under his stewardship. I can only hope to live up to the standards that he set. The next five years will take us into a new millenium, an event preceded - in England and Wales at least - by a period of stability, reflection and consolidation in education. Or so we are told - but whether such a self-denying ordinance will actually be maintained by the Government both before and after an election in 1997 remains to be seen. Nevertheless, we shall be thankful for any mercies, however small, that permit forward thinking rather than instant response. One of the things that readers of a journal called Physics Education should be thinking about is the continued decline in the numbers of students studying physics post-16. This is not a purely local phenomenon; most European countries are finding a similar decline. There are exceptions, of course: in Scotland numbers studying physics for Highers are increasing. Is such a decline a good thing or a bad thing? Only a minority of post-16 physics students go on to use the bulk of what they have learned in further studies or vocations. Does a knowledge and understanding of physics contribute to the mental well-being and cultural level - let alone material comfort - of any except those who use physics professionally? Is physics defensible as a contribution to the mental armoury of the educated citizen - compared with chemistry, biology - or Latin, say? Or should one rephrase that last question as `Is physics as we teach it today defensible...?' Such questions, and many others no doubt, may well be in the mind of the new Curriculum Officer appointed by the Institute of Physics `to engage in a wide-ranging consultation throughout the entire physics community on the nature and style of post-16 physics programmes, with a

  3. Gaps in Political Interest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robison, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    Political interest fundamentally influences political behavior, knowledge, and persuasion (Brady, Verba, & Schlozman, 1995; Delli Carpini & Keeter, 1996; Luskin, 1990; Zukin, Andolina, Keeter, Jenkins, & Delli Carpini, 2006). Since the early 1960s, the American National Election Studies (ANES) has...... sought to measure respondents’ general interest in politics by asking them how often they follow public affairs. In this article, we uncover novel sources of measurement error concerning this question. We first show that other nationally representative surveys that frequently use this item deliver...... drastically higher estimates of mass interest. We then use a survey experiment included on a wave of the ANES’ Evaluating Government and Society Surveys (EGSS) to explore the influence of question order in explaining this systemic gap in survey results. We show that placing batteries of political...

  4. Vocational interest evaluation of TMR adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, R L; Schull, C; Cambell, K

    1981-01-01

    Fifty TMR adults participated in a three-stage job-training and placement program over a 5-year period. Vocational inventoried interest and expressed interest were correlated, as were relationships between inventoried interest and such variables as CA and IQ. The results showed that (a) TMR adults can discriminate between occupational likes and dislikes when using pictorial inventoried interest assessment techniques, (b) a positive relationship exists between expressed and inventoried interest, (c) inventoried interest is independent of CA and IQ, (d) there was a general consistency in inventoried occupational choice over a 6-month interval, and (e) the Reading-Free Vocational Interest Inventory has predictive and status validity, as evidenced by job incumbents' success and their inventory cluster profiles.

  5. Mycobacteria of clinical interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casal, M.

    1986-01-01

    This book is based upon a symposium on mycobacteria of clinical interest. Due to the multidisciplinary participation of, among others, microbiologists, clinicians, immunologists and epidemiologists, a very wide and thorough presentation of the present state of clinical research in this field is ensured. Topics of particular interest included in this volume were the new antimicrobial agents active against mycobacteria; new therapeutic possibilities; a system of rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis and mycobacteriosis; mycobacteriosis in AIDS; progress in immunopathology of tuberculosis and leprosy; progress in bacteriology and vaccination in leprosy; progress in immunological diagnosis and new epidemiological biovars of M. tuberculosis. (Auth.)

  6. Spousal Conflicts of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Shana R.

    2005-01-01

    Romantic relationships bud and sometimes bloom in the school district workplace. When those relationships involve a sitting member of a school board or an administrator with responsibility for managing other employees, questions about a conflict of interest will be raised. Most states have laws prohibiting a public official from taking official…

  7. Special Interest Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degi, Bruce J.

    1999-01-01

    Offers a reflection on the shootings at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado, on April 20, 1999. Notes how every special-interest group has used the tragedy to support its own point of view, and concludes that teachers have become bystanders in the education of America's children. (SR)

  8. Evaluation of regional-scale water level simulations using various river routing schemes within a hydrometeorological modelling framework for the preparation of the SWOT mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häfliger, V.; Martin, E.; Boone, A. A.; Habets, F.; David, C. H.; Garambois, P. A.; Roux, H.; Ricci, S. M.; Thévenin, A.; Berthon, L.; Biancamaria, S.

    2014-12-01

    The ability of a regional hydrometeorological model to simulate water depth is assessed in order to prepare for the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) mission that will observe free surface water elevations for rivers having a width larger than 50/100 m. The Garonne river (56 000 km2, in south-western France) has been selected owing to the availability of operational gauges, and the fact that different modeling platforms, the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU and several fine scale hydraulic models, have been extensively evaluated over two reaches of the river. Several routing schemes, ranging from the simple Muskingum method to time-variable parameter kinematic and diffusive waves schemes with time varying parameters, are tested using predetermined hydraulic parameters. The results show that the variable flow velocity scheme is advantageous for discharge computations when compared to the original Muskingum routing method. Additionally, comparisons between water level computations and in situ observations led to root mean square errors of 50-60 cm for the improved Muskingum method and 40-50 cm for the kinematic-diffusive wave method, in the downstream Garonne river. The error is larger than the anticipated SWOT resolution, showing the potential of the mission to improve knowledge of the continental water cycle. Discharge computations are also shown to be comparable to those obtained with high-resolution hydraulic models over two reaches. However, due to the high variability of river parameters (e.g. slope and river width), a robust averaging method is needed to compare the hydraulic model outputs and the regional model. Sensitivity tests are finally performed in order to have a better understanding of the mechanisms which control the key hydrological processes. The results give valuable information about the linearity, Gaussianity and symetry of the model, in order to prepare the assimilation of river heights in the model.

  9. Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

  10. Congressional interest and input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, W.H.

    1985-01-01

    While congressional interest in nonproliferation policy has been evident since the 1940s, the 1970s were propitious for efforts by Congress to exert influence in this sphere. Its suspicions of the executive branch had been stirred by controversies over Vietnam and Watergate at the beginning of the decade; by the end of the decade, Congress was able to curtail the unrestrained freedom of the executive branch to carry out the vaguely stated policies of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. Congressional nonproliferation interests were further amplified during the decade by pressures from the expanding environmental movement, which included a strong antinuclear plank. This was to bring down the powerful Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). The Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 abolished the AEC and divided its responsibilities between the new Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), later to become the Department of Energy (DOE), and the new Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  11. Solicitors' conflicts of interest

    OpenAIRE

    Bamford, Colin

    2003-01-01

    Brief overview of the need for the Law Society of England and Wales to formulate new rules to address conflicts of interest situations and accommodate modern practices which have followed from the merger of firms of solicitors resulting for example in requests to act in a dispute with a former client or to represent several parties in the same commercial or financial transaction. Published in Amicus Curiae – Journal of the Society for Advanced Legal Studies at the Institute of Advanced Legal ...

  12. Public interest group involvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shelley, P.

    1986-01-01

    Including public interest groups in the siting process for nuclear waste disposal facilities is of great importance. Controversial sitings often result in litigation, but involving public interest groups early in the process will lessen the change of this. They act as surrogates for the general public and should be considered as members of the team. It is important to remember though, that all public interest groups are different. In choosing public panels such as public advisory committees, members should not be chosen on the basis of some quota. Opposition groups should not be excluded. Also, it is important to put the right person in charge of the committee. The goal of public involvement is to identify the conflicts. This must be done during the decision process, because conflicts must be known before they can be eliminated. Regarding litigation, it is important to ease through and around legal battles. If the siting process has integrity and a good faith effort has been shown, the court should uphold the effort. In addition, it is important to be negotiable and to eliminate shortcuts

  13. Interest-free and Interest-bearing Money Demand: Policy Invariance and Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Amir Kia

    2001-01-01

    This paper, using quarterly Iranian data for the period of 1966-1998, extends the literature by investigating the stability of the interest-free money demand function. The study also examines the stability of economic agents' behavior in demanding interest-bearing and interest-free money. It was found, contrary to interest-bearing demand or money, both short- and long-run demand for interest-free money functions are stable and their coefficients are invariant with respect to policy and other ...

  14. TESS Objects of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, Natalia; Glidden, Ana; Fausnaugh, Michael; TESS Team

    2018-01-01

    We describe the search for TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), led by the MIT branch of the TESS Science Office (TSO). TSO has developed a tool called TESS Exoplanet Vetter (TEV) to facilitate this process. Individuals independently examine data validation products for each target and assign a category to the object: planet candidate, eclipsing binary, other astrophysical, stellar variability, or instrument noise/systematic. TEV assigns a preliminary follow-up priority designation to each object and allows for modification when final dispositions are decided on in a group setting. When all targets are vetted, TEV exports a catalogue of TOIs which is delivered to the TESS Follow-Up Observing Program (TFOP), working with ExoFOP-TESS, and made publicly available on the official TESS website and the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST).

  15. BANKING WITHOUT INTEREST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Ilieva

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been increased global awareness of Islamic finance. This topic is mainly opened with respect to the great financial crisis that mostly hit the banking system and the financial markets and caused many bank bankruptcies and state interventions. This paper analyzes the basic principles of Islamic banking. The absolute prohibition of receiving and giving interest (Riba and profit-and-loss sharing (PLS paradigms are elaborated in detail; they are primarily based on mudarabah (profit-sharing and musyarakah (joint venture concepts which nowadays are becoming an accepted way of doing business in several Western multinational banks. An overall comparison of the advantages of Islamic vs. conventional banking is also given. Islamic finance technology solutions have matured and they will face various challenges in the following decades, due to conventional banks offering, increasingly, Islamic products. The need for a more comprehensive environment and regulatory framework is emphasized, so that Islamic banking development can be ensured.

  16. Globalization, values, interests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radojičić Mirjana S.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The nature of the international politics, after the Cold War directed by the U.S. as the only current super-power, are considered in the text. The author’s intention is to stress the main points of divergence between moralistic-valuable rhetoric and the foreign policy practice of the U.S. In that sense, the examples of the American stand, i.e. the active treatment of the Yugoslav crisis, on the one hand, and the crisis in the Persian Gulf, on the other hand, is considered. The author’s conclusion is that the foreign policy of the only current super-power is still directed by interests rather then by values. In the concluding part, the author presents an anthropologic argument in favor of reestablishing "balance of power" as the only guarantee for peace and stability of the world.

  17. Interest Matters: The Importance of Promoting Interest in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harackiewicz, Judith M; Smith, Jessi L; Priniski, Stacy J

    2016-10-01

    Interest is a powerful motivational process that energizes learning, guides academic and career trajectories, and is essential to academic success. Interest is both a psychological state of attention and affect toward a particular object or topic, and an enduring predisposition to reengage over time. Integrating these two definitions, the four-phase model of interest development guides interventions that promote interest and capitalize on existing interests. Four interest-enhancing interventions seem useful: attention-getting settings, contexts evoking prior individual interest, problem-based learning, and enhancing utility value. Promoting interest can contribute to a more engaged, motivated, learning experience for students.

  18. The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: precipitation measurements, retrieval techniques and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvio Marzano, Frank; Baldini, Luca; Picciotti, Errico; Colantonio, Matteo; Barbieri, Stefano; Di Fabio, Saverio; Montopoli, Mario; Vulpiani, Gianfranco; Roberto, Nicoletta; Adirosi, Elisa; Gorgucci, Eugenio; Anagnostou, Marios N.; Kalogiros, John; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Ferretti, Rossella; Gatlin, Patrick.; Wingo, Matt; Petersen, Walt

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.org/) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological site in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within CI region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area. The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area

  19. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  20. The Mexican hydro-meteorological disasters and climate network (redesclim) as model on outreach decision makers on disaster public policy in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Rodriguez-Estevez, J. M., Sr.; Romo-Aguilar, M. D. L.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Salinas-Prieto, A.; Gonzalez-Sosa, E.; Pérez-Campuzano, E.

    2017-12-01

    REDESCLIM was designed and develop in 2011 due to a public call from The Science and Technology Mexican Council (CONACYT); CONACYT lead the activities for its organization and development among the academic community. REDESCLIM was created to enhance the capacity of response to hydro-meteorological disasters and climate events through an integrative effort of researchers, technologists, entrepreneurs, politicians and society. Brief summary of our objectives: 1) Understand the causes of disasters, to reduce risks to society and ecosystems 2) Support research and interdisciplinary assessment of the physical processes in natural and social phenomena to improve understanding of causes and impacts 3) Strengths collaboration with academic, government, private and other interdisciplinary networks from Mexico and other countries 4) Build human capacity and promote the development of skills 5) Recommend strategies for climate hazard prevention, mitigation and response, especially for hazard with the greatest impacts in Mexico, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, wild fires and other extremes events. We provide a continues communication channel on members research results to provide scientific information that could be used for different proposes, specificaly for decision makers who are dealing with ecological and hydro meteorological problems that can result in disasters, and provide a services menu based on the members scientific projects, publications, teaching courses, in order to impact public policy as final result. http://www.redesclim.org.mx. So far we have some basic results: Fiver national meetings (participants from 35 countries around the world), 7 Workshops and seminars (virtual and in-person), Climatic data platforms ( http://clicom.mex.cicese.mx, http://clicom-mex.cicese.mx/malla, http://atlasclimatico.unam.mx/REDESCLIM2/ ), climate change scenarios for the general public at http://escenarios.inecc.gob.mx, 14 seed projects, one model to hurricane simulation

  1. Holonomic systems for period mappings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Jingyue, E-mail: jychen@brandeis.edu [Department of Mathematics, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA 02454 (United States); Huang, An, E-mail: anhuang@math.harvard.edu [Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Lian, Bong H., E-mail: lian@brandeis.edu [Department of Mathematics, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA 02454 (United States)

    2015-09-15

    Period mappings were introduced in the sixties [4] to study variation of complex structures of families of algebraic varieties. The theory of tautological systems was introduced recently [7,8] to understand period integrals of algebraic manifolds. In this paper, we give an explicit construction of a tautological system for each component of a period mapping. We also show that the D-module associated with the tautological system gives rise to many interesting vanishing conditions for period integrals at certain special points of the parameter space.

  2. Integrating data and mashup concepts in Hydro-Meteorological Research: the torrential rainfall event in Genoa (4th November 2011) case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.; Rebora, N.; Laiosa, D.

    2012-04-01

    One of the critical issues in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR) is a better exploitation of data archives according to a multidisciplinary perspective. Different Earth science databases offer a huge amount of observational data, which often need to be assembled, processed, combined accordingly HM scientists needs. The cooperation between scientists active in HMR and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is essential in the development of innovative tools and applications for manipulating, aggregating and re-arranging heterogeneous information in flexible way. In this paper it is described an application devoted to the collection and integration of HM datasets, originated by public or private sources, freely exposed via Web services API. This application uses the mashup, recently become very popular in many fields, (Chow S.-W., 2007) technology concepts. Such methodology means combination of data and/or programs published by external online sources into an integrated experience. Mashup seems to be a promising methodology to respond to the multiple data-related activities into which HM researchers are daily involved (e.g. finding and retrieving high volume data; learning formats and developing readers; extracting parameters; performing filtering and mask; developing analysis and visualization tools). The specific case study of the recent extreme rainfall event, occurred over Genoa in Italy on the 4th November 2011 is shown through the integration of semi-professional weather observational networks as free available data source in addition to official weather networks.

  3. Introducing seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts in local water management. First reflections from the Messara site, Crete, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal prediction is recently at the center of the forecasting research efforts, especially for regions that are projected to be severely affected by global warming. The value of skillful seasonal forecasts can be considerable for many sectors and especially for the agricultural in which water users and managers can benefit to better anticipate against drought conditions. Here we present the first reflections from the user/stakeholder interactions and the design of a tailored drought decision support system in an attempt to bring seasonal predictions into local practice for the Messara valley located in the central-south area of Crete, Greece. Findings from interactions with the users and stakeholders reveal that although long range and seasonal predictions are not used, there is a strong interest for this type of information. The increase in the skill of short range weather predictions is also of great interest. The drought monitoring and prediction tool under development that support local water and agricultural management will include (a) sources of skillful short to medium term forecast information, (b) tailored drought monitoring and forecasting indices for the local groundwater aquifer and rain-fed agriculture, and (c) seasonal inflow forecasts for the local dam through hydrologic simulation to support management of freshwater resources and drought impacts on irrigated agriculture.

  4. Common approach to common interests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-06-01

    In referring to issues confronting the energy field in this region and options to be exercised in the future, I would like to mention the fundamental condition of the utmost importance. That can be summed up as follows: any subject in energy area can never be solved by one country alone, given the geographical and geopolitical characteristics intrinsically possessed by energy. So, a regional approach is needed and it is especially necessary for the main players in the region to jointly address problems common to them. Though it may be a matter to be pursued in the distant future, I am personally dreaming a 'Common Energy Market for Northeast Asia,' in which member countries' interests are adjusted so that the market can be integrated and the region can become a most economically efficient market, thus formulating an effective power to encounter the outside. It should be noted that Europe needed forty years to integrate its market as the unified common market. It is necessary for us to follow a number of steps over the period to eventually materialize our common market concept, too. Now is the time for us to take a first step to lay the foundation for our descendants to enjoy prosperity from such a common market.

  5. 75 FR 17453 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-06

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may [[Page 17454

  6. Birth Order and Vocational Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandy, Gerald L.

    1973-01-01

    Investigated birth order differences and the vocational interests of 150 male college students, making use of the Strong Vocational Interest Blank. Sibling sex and interaction effects were also investigated. (DP)

  7. 76 FR 77581 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-13

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  8. 77 FR 76586 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-28

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  9. 76 FR 18821 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-05

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  10. 78 FR 18664 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-27

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  11. 75 FR 81326 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-27

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  12. 77 FR 39560 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-03

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  13. 75 FR 37872 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-30

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  14. 77 FR 20476 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-04

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  15. 76 FR 38717 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This [[Page...

  16. 75 FR 60152 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-29

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  17. 77 FR 59447 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-27

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  18. 78 FR 62932 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-22

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  19. 78 FR 39434 - Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120.214) on a quarterly basis. This rate is a.... This rate may be used as a base rate for guaranteed fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will...

  20. Upper secondary students’ situational interest:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dohn, Niels Bonderup

    2013-01-01

    interest was investigated by a descriptive interpretive approach, based on data from classroom and field trip observations, video recording, and interviews. The findings provided evidence that substantial situational interest can be generated during a fieldtrip to a zoo. Students’ interest was triggered...

  1. Integration of Interests at University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshkin, Andrey; Yablochkina, Irina; Kornilova, Irina; Novikov, Andrey

    2017-01-01

    University students and instructors constantly correlate their personal interests with generally accepted interests and corporate norms. The process of assimilating organizational norms is not always characterized by the optimum dynamics and focus among all the students and even instructors. Students' and instructors' personal interests often do…

  2. Model selection in periodic autoregressions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on the issue of period autoagressive time series models (PAR) selection in practice. One aspect of model selection is the choice for the appropriate PAR order. This can be of interest for the valuation of economic models. Further, the appropriate PAR order is important

  3. The Periodic Table in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raos, N.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The Croatian (Yugoslav Academy of Sciences and Arts was the first academy to elect D. I. Mendeleev as its honorary member (1882, whereas the periodic table of the elements has been taught regularly at the Zagreb University since 1888. The early interest of Croatian chemists in the periodic table should be attributed primarily to their pan-Slavic attitude, particularly as proof that Slavic people were able to produce "their own Newtons" (M. V. Lomonosov and D. I. Mendeleev. Such enthusiastic views, however, did not help in analyzing the contribution of Mendeleev and other scientists to the discovery and development of the periodic table of the elements.

  4. Periodically modulated dark states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yingying; Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Wenxian

    2018-04-01

    Phenomena of electromagnetically induced transparency (PEIT) may be interpreted by the Autler-Townes Splitting (ATS), where the coupled states are split by the coupling laser field, or by the quantum destructive interference (QDI), where the atomic phases caused by the coupling laser and the probe laser field cancel. We propose modulated experiments to explore the PEIT in an alternative way by periodically modulating the coupling and the probe fields in a Λ-type three-level system initially in a dark state. Our analytical and numerical results rule out the ATS interpretation and show that the QDI interpretation is more appropriate for the modulated experiments. Interestingly, dark state persists in the double-modulation situation where control and probe fields never occur simultaneously, which is significant difference from the traditional dark state condition. The proposed experiments are readily implemented in atomic gases, artificial atoms in superconducting quantum devices, or three-level meta-atoms in meta-materials.

  5. [Disclosure of conflicts of interest in the Tijdschrift voor Psychiatrie].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergoets, M; Pieters, G

    2009-01-01

    Between March 2000 and December 2008 authors disclosed conflicts of interest in 9% of articles in the Tijdschrift voor Psychiatrie. For the same period, in the articles dealing with pharmaceuticals, the percentage of articles containing disclosures of conflict of interest was considerably higher, namely 24%. The policy of the journal with regard to the disclosure of conflicts of interest has helped to promote transparency. Further efforts are needed to encourage authors to disclose conflicts of interest.

  6. International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Jubach

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

  7. UC Irvine CHRS Real-time Global Satellite Precipitation Monitoring System (G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer) for Hydrometeorological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K. L.; Gao, X.; Imam, B.; Nguyen, P.; Braithwaite, D.; Logan, W. S.; Mishra, A.

    2015-12-01

    The G-WADI Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) GeoServer has been successfully developed by the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California Irvine in collaboration with the UNESCO's International Hydrological Programme (IHP) and a number of its international centers. The system employs state-of-the-art technologies in remote sensing and artificial intelligence to estimate precipitation globally from satellite imagery in real-time and high spatiotemporal resolution (4km, hourly). It offers graphical tools and data service to help the user in emergency planning and management for natural disasters related to hydrological processes. The G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer has been upgraded with new user-friendly functionalities. The precipitation data generated by the GeoServer is disseminated to the user community through support provided by ICIWaRM (The International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management), UNESCO and UC Irvine. Recently a number of new applications for mobile devices have been developed by our students. The RainMapper has been available on App Store and Google Play for the real-time PERSIANN-CCS observations. A global crowd sourced rainfall reporting system named iRain has also been developed to engage the public globally to provide qualitative information about real-time precipitation in their location which will be useful in improving the quality of the PERSIANN-CCS data. A number of recent examples of the application and use of the G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer information will also be presented.

  8. Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

  9. Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

    2016-12-01

    Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro-meteorological

  10. 75 FR 20526 - Section 111 and Interest Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-20

    ... required to be paid on any royalty underpayment or late payment from a particular accounting period if the... particular accounting period if the interest charge is less than or equal to five dollars.'' after ``then the accrual period shall end on the date of the actual receipt by the Copyright Office.'' Dated: April 14...

  11. Geo-social media as a proxy for hydrometeorological data for streamflow estimation and to improve flood monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo-Estrada, Camilo; de Andrade, Sidgley Camargo; Abe, Narumi; Fava, Maria Clara; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; de Albuquerque, João Porto

    2018-02-01

    Floods are one of the most devastating types of worldwide disasters in terms of human, economic, and social losses. If authoritative data is scarce, or unavailable for some periods, other sources of information are required to improve streamflow estimation and early flood warnings. Georeferenced social media messages are increasingly being regarded as an alternative source of information for coping with flood risks. However, existing studies have mostly concentrated on the links between geo-social media activity and flooded areas. Thus, there is still a gap in research with regard to the use of social media as a proxy for rainfall-runoff estimations and flood forecasting. To address this, we propose using a transformation function that creates a proxy variable for rainfall by analysing geo-social media messages and rainfall measurements from authoritative sources, which are later incorporated within a hydrological model for streamflow estimation. We found that the combined use of official rainfall values with the social media proxy variable as input for the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), improved streamflow simulations for flood monitoring. The combination of authoritative sources and transformed geo-social media data during flood events achieved a 71% degree of accuracy and a 29% underestimation rate in a comparison made with real streamflow measurements. This is a significant improvement on the respective values of 39% and 58%, achieved when only authoritative data were used for the modelling. This result is clear evidence of the potential use of derived geo-social media data as a proxy for environmental variables for improving flood early-warning systems.

  12. CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

    2014-05-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

  13. Changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over tropical West Africa (1980-2015) and links to global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Awange, Joseph L.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa

    2018-03-01

    The role of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating rainfall in the African region has been widely studied and is now less debated. However, their impacts and links to terrestrial water storage (TWS) in general, have not been studied. This study presents the pioneer results of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of TWS derived from both global reanalysis data (1980-2015) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) (2002-2014) with SST fields. The main issues discussed include, (i) oceanic hot spots that impact on TWS over tropical West Africa (TWA) based on CCA, (ii) long term changes in model and global reanalysis data (soil moisture, TWS, and groundwater) and the influence of climate variability on these hydrological indicators, and (iii) the hydrological characteristics of the Equatorial region of Africa (i.e., the Congo basin) based on GRACE-derived TWS, river discharge, and precipitation. Results of the CCA diagnostics show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation related equatorial Pacific SST fluctuations is a major index of climate variability identified in the main portion of the CCA procedure that indicates a significant association with long term TWS reanalysis data over TWA (r = 0.50, ρ < 0.05). Based on Mann-Kendall's statistics, the study found fairly large long term declines (ρ < 0.05) in TWS and soil moisture (1982 - 2015), mostly over the Congo basin, which coincided with warming of the land surface and the surrounding oceans. Meanwhile, some parts of the Sahel show significant wetting (rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater, and TWS) trends during the same period (1982-2015) and aligns with the ongoing narratives of rainfall recovery in the region. Results of singular spectral analysis and regression confirm that multi-annual changes in the Congo River discharge explained a considerable proportion of variability in GRACE-hydrological signal over the Congo basin (r = 0.86 and R2 = 0.70, ρ < 0.05). Finally, leading

  14. Management of interest rate risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Interest rate risk is one of the biggest and most dangerous risks that a bank is exposed to. When a change of interest rates occurs, the incomes of a bank based on credits and securities endure significant changes. Banks resources also endure some changes. The change of interest rates changes the value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and it's net and investment worth . The change of interest rates also affects bank's balance sheet, income sheet statement and bank's share capital.

  15. Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

    2015-09-14

    Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

  16. Monitoring Financial Conflict of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickson, Lorraine

    2016-01-01

    Conflict of interest is heavily intertwined with research. The purpose of this study was to examine the literature and regulations in order to describe efforts required to properly monitor and disclose conflict of interest as researchers become steadily involved in innovation and discovery. The public assumes that when a conflict is disclosed, it…

  17. Vocational Interests and Basic Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagiv, Lilach

    2002-01-01

    Study 1 (n=97) provided evidence of the correlation of Holland's model of vocational interests with Schwartz' theory of basic values. Realistic career interests did not correlate with values. Study 2 (n=545) replicated these findings, showing a better match for individuals who had reached a career decision in counseling than for the undecided.…

  18. Rescheduling the special interest group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peace, Helen

    1993-06-09

    The committee members of the RCN Social Interest Group for Nurses Working Within Day Hospitals/Day Care for Older People would like to apologise to the large number of people who were interested in attending our conference, which unfortunately had to be postponed.

  19. Medication interest in pregnant women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rok Antolič

    2011-12-01

    Medication interest is comparable to literature data: relatively high for acute problems, relatively low for iron supplementation and extremely low for preventative folic acid intake. As to our knowledge, we were the ones to introduce the term »medication interest« into professional literature in Slovenia.

  20. Fostering Children's Interests in Gardening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekies, Kristi S.; Sheavly, Marcia Eames

    2007-01-01

    Despite the rapidly growing interest in children's gardens and attention to the positive benefits of gardening for children, little is known about the ways in which young people actually form interests in gardening. Using a sample of 9- and 10-year-old children at a school garden site in New York State, this study examined the ways in which…

  1. What Googling Trends Tell Us About Public Interest in Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Y. J.; Maharjan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have shown that immediately after large earthquakes, there is a period of increased public interest. This represents a window of opportunity for science communication and disaster relief fundraising efforts to reach more people. However, how public interest varies for different earthquakes has not been quantified systematically on a global scale. We analyze how global search interest for the term "earthquake" on Google varies following earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 5.5 from 2004 to 2016. We find that there is a spike in search interest after large earthquakes followed by an exponential temporal decay. Preliminary results suggest that the period of increased search interest scales with death toll and correlates with the period of increased media coverage. This suggests that the relationship between the period of increased public interest in earthquakes and death toll might be an effect of differences in media coverage. However, public interest never remains elevated for more than three weeks. Therefore, to take advantage of this short period of increased public interest, science communication and disaster relief fundraising efforts have to act promptly following devastating earthquakes.

  2. Interest Organisations and European Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Ove K.

    This paper examines the influence of European integration on the relationship between state administration and private interests in the four Nordic countries - Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland. By private interests I mean interest organizations, private corporations and independent experts....... The paper focuses exclusively on the national policy processes that are involved with managing European Union (EU) issues. More specifically, this paper discusses two aspects of multi-level governance. First is the important role of private interests in the coordination of decision making at the national...... level preceding their government's representation of national interests in the European Council of Ministers and other EU organizations. Second is the effect of all this on national democratic systems....

  3. Defining and Classifying Interest Groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baroni, Laura; Carroll, Brendan; Chalmers, Adam

    2014-01-01

    The interest group concept is defined in many different ways in the existing literature and a range of different classification schemes are employed. This complicates comparisons between different studies and their findings. One of the important tasks faced by interest group scholars engaged...... in large-N studies is therefore to define the concept of an interest group and to determine which classification scheme to use for different group types. After reviewing the existing literature, this article sets out to compare different approaches to defining and classifying interest groups with a sample...... in the organizational attributes of specific interest group types. As expected, our comparison of coding schemes reveals a closer link between group attributes and group type in narrower classification schemes based on group organizational characteristics than those based on a behavioral definition of lobbying....

  4. Human impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands derived from documentary sources in the 18th-19th centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    The extent of damage caused by hydrometeorological events or extremes (HME) has risen up in the entire world in the last few years. Especially the floods, flash floods, torrential rains and hailstorms are the most typical and one of the most frequent kind of natural disasters in the central Europe. Catastrophes are a part of human history and people were forced to cope with their consequences (e. g. material damage, economical losses, impacts on agriculture and society or losses of human lives). This paper analyses the human impacts of HME in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands (central part of the Czech Republic) on the basis of documentary sources from the 18th-19th centuries. The paper presents various negative impacts of natural disasters on lives and property and subsequent inconveniences of Czech peasants. The preserved archival documents of estates or domains became the primary sources of data (e. g. taxation reliefs, damaged records, reports of afflicted farmers, administrative correspondence etc.). Particularly taxation reliefs relate to taxation system in the Czech lands during the 17th-19th centuries allowing to farmers to ask for tax alleviation when their crops were significantly damaged by any HME. These archival documents are a highly valuable source for the study of human impacts of natural disasters. Devastating consequences of these extremes affected individual farmers much more than the aristocracy. Floods caused inundations of farmer's fields, meadows, houses and farm buildings, washed away the arable land with crops, caused losses of cattle, clogged the land with gravel and mud and destroyed roads, bridges or agricultural equipment. Afflicted fields became worthless and it took them many years to become became fertile again. Crop was also damaged by hailstorms, droughts or late/early frosts. All these events led to lack of food and seeds in the following year and it meant the decrease of living standard, misery and poverty of farmers. Acquired

  5. Public interests and corporate obligations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Claus Strue

    2016-01-01

    In this chapter, I discuss the division of labour between private enterprises and the state. According to stakeholder theorists, a state should take into account the interests of all of its citizens, whereas a company should focus on the interests of its stakeholders. I focus on a challenge......, and corporations) should try to promote the good, seen from an impartial perspective, meaning that everybody’s interest should be taken into account (Kagan 1989). I conclude that stakeholder theorists are unable to meet the challenge presented by consequentialism by traditional means, i.e. by referring to social...

  6. Interest Organizations across Economic Sectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berkhout, Joost; Carroll, Brendan; Braun, Caelesta

    2015-01-01

    of collective action of businesses. In contrast, we do not find consistent evidence that political institutions produce ‘demand’ for interest organizations by making laws, developing public policy or spending money. This is in contrast to the extensive evidence that such factors affect lobbying practices...... on the basis of political and economic institutional factors. Focusing on business interest representation, we show that economic institutions structure the ‘supply’ of interest organizations by affecting the number of potential constituents, the resources available for lobbying and the geographical level...

  7. Making working in retailing interesting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esbjerg, Lars; Buck, Nuka; Grunert, Klaus G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper is about how five retail chains in the Danish grocery industry attempt to make low-wage, low-status store-level retail jobs as checkout operators and sales assistants interesting from the perspective of both retailers and employees. Following analysis of the social and institutional...... and make store-level retail jobs interesting to them. Although retailers mainly focus their attention on career seekers, we find that working in retailing is interesting for all employee types because the retailers are currently able to meet their respective motivations and aspirations. Nevertheless, we...

  8. VOCATIONAL INTEREST, COUNSELLING, SOCIO- ECONOMIC ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth

    The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between vocational ... Modified Bakare Vocational interest inventory, the instrument on counselling, .... family influences the vocational preference of youths. .... Theories of Personality.

  9. Long Period Seismological Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-10-31

    in central Asia as observed at the high-gain long- period sites. Preliminary results from observations at Chiang Mai (CHG) show that the complexity...Preliminary results from observations at Chiang Mai (CHG) show that the complexity of the surface wave signals from many events in the Tadzhik-Kirgiz...and receivers. A number of Interesting features can be illustrated by examining portions of three selsmograms recorded at Chiang Mai (CHO

  10. Interests diffusion in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Agostino, Gregorio; D'Antonio, Fulvio; De Nicola, Antonio; Tucci, Salvatore

    2015-10-01

    We provide a model for diffusion of interests in Social Networks (SNs). We demonstrate that the topology of the SN plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the individual interests. Understanding cultural phenomena on SNs and exploiting the implicit knowledge about their members is attracting the interest of different research communities both from the academic and the business side. The community of complexity science is devoting significant efforts to define laws, models, and theories, which, based on acquired knowledge, are able to predict future observations (e.g. success of a product). In the mean time, the semantic web community aims at engineering a new generation of advanced services by defining constructs, models and methods, adding a semantic layer to SNs. In this context, a leapfrog is expected to come from a hybrid approach merging the disciplines above. Along this line, this work focuses on the propagation of individual interests in social networks. The proposed framework consists of the following main components: a method to gather information about the members of the social networks; methods to perform some semantic analysis of the Domain of Interest; a procedure to infer members' interests; and an interests evolution theory to predict how the interests propagate in the network. As a result, one achieves an analytic tool to measure individual features, such as members' susceptibilities and authorities. Although the approach applies to any type of social network, here it is has been tested against the computer science research community. The DBLP (Digital Bibliography and Library Project) database has been elected as test-case since it provides the most comprehensive list of scientific production in this field.

  11. An empirical analysis of the German interest rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Butter, F.A.G.; Jansen, P.W.

    2004-01-01

    The short run and long run influences of the main determinants of the German long-term interest rate are estimated using quarterly data for the period 1982-2001. A major reason for the focus on the German interest rate is that this rate, and hence its determinants, will be dominant in explaining the

  12. 7 CFR 762.150 - Interest assistance program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., however, may be considered for two 5-year periods. The applicant must meet the definition of a beginning... average agricultural loan customer. (h) Agreement. The lender and borrower must execute an interest... have actual knowledge at the time the interest assistance agreement is executed, or which the lender or...

  13. The Accounting Profession: Serving the Public Interest or Capital Interest?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary A Kaidonis

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available As an integral facet of society, the accounting profession has a role in the State and thecorporate sector, and is also expected to serve the public interest. The capacity for theAustralian accounting profession to serve the public interest is considered in the context oflegislation and the accounting standard setting process. Specific reference is made to theCLERP Act 1999 and ASIC Act 2001. It is argued that the combined effect of these Acts is tolegislate bias so that accounting standards privilege the specific needs of holders of capital,that is capital interest. The assumption that capital markets are surrogate for the publicinterest is contested. Accordingly, if the accounting profession follows national objectives tosupport capital markets, it may undermine its role in serving society.

  14. ANALYSIS OF NIGERIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    Tests on time homogeneity, showed that the annual rainfall ... lognormal distribution should be adopted for predictions of annual rainfall at Port Harcourt and .... factors for normal probability distribution, ... functions of adjusted skewness.

  15. Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S.

    2016-01-01

    We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation. PMID:27047418

  16. Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María de la O eGonzález

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

  17. Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S

    2016-01-01

    We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

  18. Conflicts of interest at medical journals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundh, Andreas; Barbateskovic, Marija; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn

    2010-01-01

    for journals. We investigated industry-supported trials' influence on journal impact factors and revenue. METHODS AND FINDINGS: we sampled six major medical journals (Annals of Internal Medicine, Archives of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, The Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine [NEJM]). For each journal......BACKGROUND: transparency in reporting of conflict of interest is an increasingly important aspect of publication in medical journals. Publication of large industry-supported trials may generate many citations and journal income through reprint sales and thereby be a source of conflicts of interest......, we identified randomised trials published in 1996-1997 and 2005-2006 using PubMed, and categorized the type of financial support. Using Web of Science, we investigated citations of industry-supported trials and the influence on journal impact factors over a ten-year period. We contacted journal...

  19. [Conflict of interest and bioethics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemelmajer De Carlucci, Aida

    2014-06-01

    "Conflicts of interests" is a multi-meaning expression. To give a juridical concept is not easy because this concept is applied in public and private law. Maybe this is the reason of not having a law giving a valid definition in any case In health area, a conflict of interests is present many times, i.e. at the beginning of a research, when informing its results, etc. This conflict of interests may affect different aspects of the research work, economic or not; sometimes totally or partially. The economic resources is one of the most common reasons of the conflict of interests. The mass media often cause conflicts of interests informing the general public about new scientific discovery in a simple way to be understood but without been quite assertive. Other times, great enterprises hide information about new and better medicines due to the fact that they have many old medicines that should be sold before introducing in the market the new ones. From the academic point of view, conflicts may arise when the public funds are wrongly used to support unworthy researches.

  20. Bank Consolidation and Consumer Loan Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Kahn; George Pennacchi; Ben Sopranzetti

    2001-01-01

    The recent wave of bank mergers has raised concern with its effect on competition. This paper examines the influence of concentration and merger activity on consumer loan interest rates. It uses Bank Rate Monitor, Inc. survey data on loan rates quoted weekly by large commercial banks in ten major U.S. cities during the 1989 to 1997 period. The pricing behavior of banks is analyzed for two types of loans: new automobile loans and unsecured personal loans. Market concentration is found to have ...

  1. The Optimal Interest Rates and the Current Interest Rate System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis N. Kallianiotis

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the current target interest rate, which is closed to zero with the new experiment of quantitative easing since 2009 and has reduced the rate of return and the income and has made the real savings rate negative. This target rate has not reduced unemployment and has not improved growth (it is not optimal, but has increased the debt of individuals and the low taxes on businesses have magnified the budget deficits and the national debt. People were borrowing the present value of their uncertain future wealth and their high debt and low income raise the risk and this high risk premium heighten the interest rate on loans, especially on credit cards. The current monetary system needs to be changed and an interest rate floor on deposits (savings and an interest rate ceiling on individuals‟ loans (borrowings is necessary to improve social welfare, fairness, and justice in our society and not to support only disintermediation (financial markets. The middle class cannot work only to pay taxes and interest on its debt (redistribution of their wealth to government and banks or worse to be in chronic unemployment. Many home owners defaulted on their loans payments and their homes are foreclosed. They will end up without property (real assets. The unconcern towards the middle class will affect negatively the entire socio-economic structure of the nation and after losing its productive power, it will start declining, as history has shown to us with so many empires that do not exist anymore. We hope the leaders (the democratic governments to improve public policies, to regulate the financial market and institutions, and to satisfy their policy ultimate objective, which is citizens‟ perfection and the nation‟s highest point of prosperity.

  2. Financial markets and interest rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dudić Zdenka

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper 'Financial Markets and Interest Rate' originated from the thesis paper. This topic is very interesting and more and more present in the recent few years. Various changes in the market, increased competition, the development of information technologies, application of innovations, all these contribute to the rapid expansion of scope and use of financial derivatives. Therefore, under these influences, oscillations in various markets are present on a daily basis, so that the vast expansion of financial contracts is present, which is mainly related to interest rates. What are the world's best-known stock markets? What are the instruments most actively traded on stock exchanges? The words LIBOR and BBA LIBOR are frequently heard in today's media. What is LIBOR? What is BBA LIBOR? How and when is it determined? Where is LIBOR used?.

  3. Resonances in a periodically driven bosonic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quelle, Anton; de Morais Smith, Cristiane

    2017-01-01

    Periodically driven systems are a common topic in modern physics. In optical lattices specifically, driving is at the origin of many interesting phenomena. However, energy is not conserved in driven systems, and under periodic driving, heating of a system is a real concern. In an effort to better

  4. Keen foreign interest in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, D.

    1997-01-01

    Despite a reputation for political and economic instability, Pakistan continues to attract keen attention from the world's major oil and gas companies. Interest is not just confined to the potentially profitable upstream exploration and prospecting industry but also to downstream refining and distribution, where significant multi-million dollar projects are planned to meet the country's insatiable demand for petroleum products. (Author)

  5. Speculation, Hedging, and Interest Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Whelan, Paul

    of Treasury bond markets that the singleagent paradigm finds difficult to reconcile. Empirically, we test predictions from themodel using a large dataset on beliefs about fundamentals and find that: (i) shocksto disagreement lower short term interest rates; (ii) raise the slope of the yield curve;and (iii...

  6. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  7. Conflicts about Conflict of Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Terrence

    2016-07-01

    Pharmaceutical representatives use detailing, gift giving, and the donation of free samples as a means to gain access to and influence over physicians. In biomedical ethics, there has been an ongoing debate as to whether these practices constitute an unethical conflict of interest (COI) on the part of the physician. Underlying this debate are the following antecedent questions: (1) what counts as a conflict of interest, (2) when are such conflicts unethical, and (3) how should the ethical physician respond to conflicts? This article distinguishes between two perspectives that have been developed on these issues: a reliable performance model (PM) and a trustworthiness model (TM). PM advocates argue that a conflict of interest can only be established by demonstrating that a particular influence is undermining the reliability of the physician's judgment, and this requires empirical evidence of negative patient outcomes. TM advocates, on the other hand, argue that because of the fiduciary nature of the patient-physician relationship, physicians have an obligation to develop and be worthy of patient trust. A COI, on this view, is a condition that undermines the warrant for patients to judge a physician as trustworthy. Although there is much that is right in the PM, it is argued that the TM does a better job of responsibly addressing the unique vulnerabilities of the patient. The TM is then applied to the practices of detailing, gift giving, and sample donation. It is concluded that these practices constitute an unethical conflict of interest.

  8. Organizational Change and Vested Interest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrikse, G.W.J.

    1996-01-01

    The nature of organizational change and the value of headquarters is derived from a model with costs of delay, vested interests and costs of organizational change.The value of headquarters is derived from imposed organizational change. It is viewed as an institution which is able to prevent surplus

  9. CENTRE OF THE MAIN INTERESTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DIANA DELEANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The centre of the main interests of the debtor is a legal tool meant to settle conflicts that can arise between jurisdictions in cross-border insolvencies, based on the principles of mutual recognition and co-operation.

  10. Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Eaton, Jonathan; Turnovsky, Stephen J.

    1981-01-01

    A number of macroeconomic models of open economies under flexible exchange rate assume a strong version of perfect capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of important results no longer obtain. First, the exchange rate and interest rate cannot be in steady state unless both the government deficit and current account equal zero, not simply their sum, as would otherwise be the case. Second, even in steady state th...

  11. Interests versus morality in politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radojčić Mirjana S.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this individual project the relationship between interests and moral in politics will be considered, taking into consideration the disintegration of former Yugoslavia and the processes of globalization. The starting thesis of the research is that the main actors of global politics are still guided by the modern principles of real-politics with interests as its basic category and power as its supreme value. In that context the main elements of external politics of USA as the key actor of the processes will be specially considered. In the concluding part of the research author will be argue in favor of the affirmation of a new model of global politics, matching the character and scope of the problems faced by humanity at the turn of the century and the millenium.

  12. Federal Debt and Interests Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-05-01

    refunding, , state or lo- by clearing easy profits. To bar this abuse-- cal government sells bonds whose proceeds which is known as tax arbitrage --federal...rate. violating the arbitrage ban. SLGs carry a maximum interest rate of one-eighth of a per- Foreign Series. Foreign series securities, is- centage...or costs are unpredictable and vestors devote to nonproductive hedging focus instead on any of several economic bene- and increase the willingness of

  13. Interest alignment and competitive advantage

    OpenAIRE

    Gottschalg, Oliver; Zollo, Mauricio

    2006-01-01

    This paper articulates a theory of the conditions under which the alignment between individual and collective interests generates sustainable competitive advantage. The theory is based on the influence of tacitness, context-specificity and casual ambiguity in the determinants of different types of motivation (extrinsic, normative intrinsic and hedonic intrinsic), under varying conditions of environmental dynamism. The analysis indicates the need to consider mitivational processes as a complem...

  14. Informational pathologies and interest bubbles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendricks, Vincent Fella; Wiewiura, Joachim Schmidt

    2017-01-01

    This article contends that certain configurations of information networks facilitate specific cognitive states that are instrumental for decision and action on social media. Group-related knowledge and belief states—in particular common knowledge and pluralistic ignorance—may enable strong public...... signals. Indeed, some network configurations and attitude states foster informational pathologies that may fuel interest bubbles affecting agenda-setting and the generation of narratives in public spheres....

  15. Preschool children's interests in science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, R. I.

    1991-12-01

    Studies of children's attitudes towards science indicate that a tendency for girls and boys to have different patterns of interest in science is established by upper primary school level. It is not know when these interest patterns develop. This paper presents the results of part of a project designed to investigate preschool children's interests in science. Individual 4 5 year-old children were asked to say what they would prefer to do from each of a series of paired drawings showing either a science and a non-science activity, or activities from two different areas of science. Girls and boys were very similar in their overall patterns of choice for science and non-science items. Within science, the average number of physical science items chosen by boys was significantly greater than the average number chosen by girls (p=.026). Girls tended to choose more biology items than did boys, but this difference was not quite significant at the .05 level (p=.054). The temporal stability of these choices was explored.

  16. [People's interest in health information].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horch, K; Wirz, J

    2005-11-01

    Well-informed citizens and patients regard health policy innovations as a key element when it comes to reforms in the health service--both in health economics and with regard to prevention issues. We evaluated the data provided by the 2003 Telephone Health Survey (GSTel03) to examine demographic and social distinctions in the use of different information sources. At the same time we examined whether there are any population-related differences in people's interest in health information depending on their levels of health awareness, attitudes to prevention and related modes of behaviour. The data generated by the survey show that there is considerable interest in health-related topics. Only 2% of the people questioned used no information sources for this purpose. In addition to more traditional media (books, newspapers, information from pharmacies), information provided by health insurance companies and via the Internet is becoming increasingly important. With the exception of the Internet, all other sources of information are used more frequently by women than by men, and demand for most of the information media increases with age. The frequency of information use and the number of different media used increase from the lower to the upper strata of society. As far as selected variables of health-related behaviour are concerned (smoking, sport, alcohol), the results show a link between a more positive attitude to health and a greater interest in information.

  17. The Periodic Pyramid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennigan, Jennifer N.; Grubbs, W. Tandy

    2013-01-01

    The chemical elements present in the modern periodic table are arranged in terms of atomic numbers and chemical periodicity. Periodicity arises from quantum mechanical limitations on how many electrons can occupy various shells and subshells of an atom. The shell model of the atom predicts that a maximum of 2, 8, 18, and 32 electrons can occupy…

  18. Book Reviews in Periodicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettelt, Harold J.

    All recent issues of periodicals found which contain indexed book reviews are listed in this compilation from Drake Memorial Library at the New York State University at Brockport. The periodicals are listed by 29 subject headings in this informal guide designed to be used at Drake Library. The number of reviews in the periodical in a recent year…

  19. 27 CFR 70.93 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest rate. 70.93... Excise and Special (Occupational) Tax Interest § 70.93 Interest rate. (a) In general. The interest rate... annual percentage rate of interest will exceed the prescribed rate of interest. (b) Applicability of...

  20. The economics interests In Football

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Fustes-Ross

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The football is the most popular sport in the Word and the economics interests have been fundamentals in his increase and expansion; this idea is confirmed by the numerous competitions for even sexes with categories from National Championships to regional events, continentals, intercontinental, Olympic Games and World Cup from majors, the most important event where showed the most expensive and important merchandise: the players. All this sport mechanism is capitalized by the owners clubs, business trade associations and greats corporations in the host cities, the nations participating also those without participation but with many fans. Each and every one are customers, is a chance for increase the sales.

  1. Interest in Aesthetic Rhinoplasty Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naraghi, Mohsen; Atari, Mohammad

    2017-04-01

    Interest in cosmetic surgery is increasing, with rhinoplasty being one of the most popular surgical procedures. It is essential that surgeons identify patients with existing psychological conditions before any procedure. This study aimed to develop and validate the Interest in Aesthetic Rhinoplasty Scale (IARS). Four studies were conducted to develop the IARS and to evaluate different indices of validity (face, content, construct, criterion, and concurrent validities) and reliability (internal consistency, split-half coefficient, and temporal stability) of the scale. The four study samples included a total of 463 participants. Statistical analysis revealed satisfactory psychometric properties in all samples. Scores on the IARS were negatively correlated with self-esteem scores ( r  = -0.296; p  social dysfunction ( r  = 0.268; p  < 0.01), and depression ( r  = 0.308; p  < 0.01). The internal and test-retest coefficients of consistency were found to be high (α = 0.93; intraclass coefficient = 0.94). Rhinoplasty patients were found to have significantly higher IARS scores than nonpatients ( p  < 0.001). Findings of the present studies provided evidence for face, content, construct, criterion, and concurrent validities and internal and test-retest reliability of the IARS. This evidence supports the use of the scale in clinical and research settings. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  2. Painful menstrual periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menstruation - painful; Dysmenorrhea; Periods - painful; Cramps - menstrual; Menstrual cramps ... into two groups, depending on the cause: Primary dysmenorrhea Secondary dysmenorrhea Primary dysmenorrhea is menstrual pain that ...

  3. Middle Helladic Period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarri, Kalliopi

    1999-01-01

    and their quality was improved considerably toward the end of this period. The profound cultural innovations of the Middle Helladic period were initially interpreted as a result of violent population movement and troubles provoked by the coming of the first Indo-European races. However, this matter does no more...... Helladic period is considered as a period of economic and social decline it was the time during which the mainland features merged with the insular influence, that is all the Aegean elements which led to the creation of the Mycenaean civilization were mixed in a creative way....

  4. Information, Interests, and Environmental Regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winter, Søren; May, Peter J.

    2002-01-01

    This study contributes to the understanding of informational approaches to bringing about compliance with environmental regulations with particular attention to differences in the influence of information provided by different information sources. Based on theorizing from a combination of informa......This study contributes to the understanding of informational approaches to bringing about compliance with environmental regulations with particular attention to differences in the influence of information provided by different information sources. Based on theorizing from a combination...... of information processing and interest group literatures, we develop hypotheses about regulatees' reliance upon and the influence of different sources of information. We test these hypotheses for Danish farmers’ compliance with agro-environmental rules. Our findings show that information plays a role in bringing...

  5. Public Interest in Accessing the INIS Collection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savić, Dobrica

    2016-01-01

    Since its creation in 1970, the International Nuclear Information System (INIS) has collected and provided access to more than 3.8 million bibliographic references to publications, documents, technical reports, non‐copyrighted documentation, and other grey literature, as well as over a million full texts. Overall, there are 800 GB of data in the INIS repository. Public interest in accessing this collection has been remarkable. This year alone, there were more than one million sessions and almost two million page views. During the same period, there were 1.6 million full text document downloads. The INIS collection consists of seven types of literature – computer media, patents, books, reports, journal articles, miscellaneous and audio‐visuals. This paper provides an overview of the INIS collection subject coverage, and the distribution of different types of grey literature. It also provides INIS repository access statistics based on Google Analytics and other Web search data pertaining to public interest in accessing these different types of literature and the uniqueness of the collection. As one of the world's largest collections of published information on the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology, INIS represents an extraordinary example of world cooperation. 154 INIS members share and allow access to their valuable nuclear information resources, preserving them for future generations and offering a freely available nuclear knowledge repository. (author)

  6. 24 CFR 206.21 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest rate. 206.21 Section 206... CONVERSION MORTGAGE INSURANCE Eligibility; Endorsement Eligible Mortgages § 206.21 Interest rate. (a) Fixed interest rate. A fixed interest rate is agreed upon by the mortgagor and mortgagee. (b) Adjustable interest...

  7. 27 CFR 6.32 - Indirect interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS âTIED-HOUSEâ Unlawful Inducements Interest in Retail Property § 6.32 Indirect interest. Industry member interest in retail property includes any interest acquired by corporate officials, partners, employees or other representatives of the industry member. Any interest in retail property...

  8. 27 CFR 6.26 - Indirect interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS âTIED-HOUSEâ Unlawful Inducements Interest in Retail License § 6.26 Indirect interest. Industry member interest in retail licenses includes any interest acquired by corporate officials, partners, employees or other representatives of the industry member. Any interest in a retail license...

  9. 5 CFR 550.806 - Interest computations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... agency shall compound interest by dividing the applicable interest rate (expressed as a decimal) by 365... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest computations. 550.806 Section... ADMINISTRATION (GENERAL) Back Pay § 550.806 Interest computations. (a)(1) Interest begins to accrue on the date...

  10. The motivation for special interests in individuals with autism and controls: Development and validation of the special interest motivation scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grove, Rachel; Roth, Ilona; Hoekstra, Rosa A

    2016-06-01

    Clinical observations and first person accounts of living with autism suggest that individuals with autism are highly motivated to engage in special interests, and that these interests remain important throughout life. Previous research assessing special interests has mainly focused on parental reports of children with autism spectrum conditions (ASC). To better understand the significance of and motivations for engaging in special interests it is essential to use self-report ratings. This paper aims to systematically explore the motivations for engagement in special interests, and whether these differ in adults with ASC, first-degree relatives and general population controls. The Special Interest Motivation Scale (SIMS) was developed to assess motivation to engage in special interests. The internal structure of this scale was evaluated using factor analysis, and mean scores on the SIMS factors were subsequently compared across individuals with autism, parents and general population controls. Factor analysis indicated a 20-item SIMS containing five factors assessing Personal life values and goals; Intrinsic interest and knowledge; Prestige; Engagement and "flow" and Achievement. Individuals with autism were more motivated by Intrinsic interest and knowledge and by Engagement and flow than controls. The 20-item SIMS is a quick to administer measure that provides a reliable description of motivation to engage in special interests. This study indicates that individuals with ASC are highly motivated to engage in their special interest, and are more motivated than controls by intrinsic motivational factors, some of which are associated with positive affect. This has implications for research and clinical practice. Autism Res 2016, 9: 677-688. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. On some periodicity effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorokin, Sergey V.

    2015-01-01

    The talk is concerned with the modelling of wave propagation in and vibration of periodic elastic structures. Although analysis of wave-guide properties of infinite periodic structures is a well establish research subject, some issues have not yet been fully addressed in the literature. The aim o...

  12. The Living Periodic Table

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahlik, Mary Schrodt

    2005-01-01

    To help make the abstract world of chemistry more concrete eighth-grade students, the author has them create a living periodic table that can be displayed in the classroom or hallway. This display includes information about the elements arranged in the traditional periodic table format, but also includes visual real-world representations of the…

  13. Pulsation properties of Mira long period variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cahn, J.H.

    1980-01-01

    A matter of great interest to variable star students concerns the mode of pulsation of Mira long period variables. In this report we first give observational evidence for the pulsation constant Q. We then compare the observations with calculations. Next, we review two interesting groups of papers dealing with hydrodynamic properties of long period variables. In the first, a fully dynamic nonlinear calculation maps out the Mira instability domain. In the second, special attention is paid to shock propagation beyond the photosphere which in large measure accounts for the complex spectra from this region. (orig./WL)

  14. Periods and Nori motives

    CERN Document Server

    Huber, Annette

    2017-01-01

    This book casts the theory of periods of algebraic varieties in the natural setting of Madhav Nori’s abelian category of mixed motives. It develops Nori’s approach to mixed motives from scratch, thereby filling an important gap in the literature, and then explains the connection of mixed motives to periods, including a detailed account of the theory of period numbers in the sense of Kontsevich-Zagier and their structural properties. Period numbers are central to number theory and algebraic geometry, and also play an important role in other fields such as mathematical physics. There are long-standing conjectures about their transcendence properties, best understood in the language of cohomology of algebraic varieties or, more generally, motives. Readers of this book will discover that Nori’s unconditional construction of an abelian category of motives (over fields embeddable into the complex numbers) is particularly well suited for this purpose. Notably, Kontsevich's formal period algebra represents a to...

  15. The Interaction between American and European IRS Interest Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verga Giovanni

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available European interest rates movements are affected by various internal and external factors. This paper studies the link between European and American short- and long-term interest rates. In particular, we consider the forward interest rates coming from euro and dollar IRS term structures. The econometric techniques employed are co-integration, Granger-causality, OLS and GMM. Our results indicate that European remote settlement forward and long-term interest rates are primarily driven by US rates and confirm that the causality acts mainly from the US to the Eurozone. This was true even during the recent periods of European Central Bank quantitative easing. These factors weaken the ECB’s ability to intervene. In fact, we found the impact of American monetary policy on long-term interest rates to be also relevant for European bonds.

  16. Autoinflammatory Diseases with Periodic Fevers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sag, Erdal; Bilginer, Yelda; Ozen, Seza

    2017-07-01

    One purpose of this review was to raise awareness for the new autoinflammatory syndromes. These diseases are increasingly recognized and are in the differential diagnosis of many disease states. We also aimed to review the latest recommendations for the diagnosis, management, and treatment of these patients. Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), cryopyrin-associated periodic syndrome (CAPS), tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated periodic fever syndrome (TRAPS), and hyperimmunoglobulinemia D and periodic fever syndrome/mevalonate kinase deficiency (HIDS/MVKD) are the more common autoinflammatory diseases that are characterized by periodic fevers and attacks of inflammation. Recently much collaborative work has been done to understand the characteristics of these patients and to develop recommendations to guide the physicians in the care of these patients. These recent recommendations will be summarized for all four diseases. FMF is the most common periodic fever disease. We need to further understand the pathogenesis and the role of single mutations in the disease. Recently, the management and treatment of the disease have been nicely reviewed. CAPS is another interesting disease associated with severe complications. Anti-interleukin-1 (anti-IL-1) treatment provides cure for these patients. TRAPS is characterized by the longest delay in diagnosis; thus, both pediatricians and internists should be aware of the characteristic features and the follow-up of these patients. HIDS/MVKD is another autoinflammatory diseases characterized with fever attacks. The spectrum of disease manifestation is rather large in this disease, and we need further research on biomarkers for the optimal management of these patients.

  17. Mean-periodic functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Berenstein

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available We show that any mean-periodic function f can be represented in terms of exponential-polynomial solutions of the same convolution equation f satisfies, i.e., u∗f=0(μ∈E′(ℝn. This extends to n-variables the work of L. Schwartz on mean-periodicity and also extends L. Ehrenpreis' work on partial differential equations with constant coefficients to arbitrary convolutors. We also answer a number of open questions about mean-periodic functions of one variable. The basic ingredient is our work on interpolation by entire functions in one and several complex variables.

  18. Painful periods (dysmenorrhea) (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primary dysmenorrhea is a normal cramping of the lower abdomen caused by hormone-induced uterine contractions before the period. Secondary dysmenorrhea may be caused by abnormal conditions such as ...

  19. Vaginal bleeding between periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003156.htm Vaginal bleeding between periods To use the sharing features ... this page, please enable JavaScript. This article discusses vaginal bleeding that occurs between a woman's monthly menstrual ...

  20. Super periodic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Mohammd; Mandal, Bhabani Prasad

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we introduce the concept of super periodic potential (SPP) of arbitrary order n, n ∈I+, in one dimension. General theory of wave propagation through SPP of order n is presented and the reflection and transmission coefficients are derived in their closed analytical form by transfer matrix formulation. We present scattering features of super periodic rectangular potential and super periodic delta potential as special cases of SPP. It is found that the symmetric self-similarity is the special case of super periodicity. Thus by identifying a symmetric fractal potential as special cases of SPP, one can obtain the tunnelling amplitude for a particle from such fractal potential. By using the formalism of SPP we obtain the close form expression of tunnelling amplitude of a particle for general Cantor and Smith-Volterra-Cantor potentials.

  1. Establishing contract periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huffman, F.C.

    1978-01-01

    The lead time for executing the Adjustable Fixed-Commitment (AFC) contract and exceptions which may be considered are discussed. The initial delivery period is also discussed. Delays, deferrals, and schedule adjustment charges are finally considered

  2. The Periodic Table CD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Alton J.; Holmes, Jon L.

    1995-01-01

    Describes the characteristics of the digitized version of The Periodic Table Videodisc. Provides details about the organization of information and access to the data via Macintosh and Windows computers. (DDR)

  3. Setting the Periodic Table.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saturnelli, Annette

    1985-01-01

    Examines problems resulting from different forms of the periodic table, indicating that New York State schools use a form reflecting the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry's 1984 recommendations. Other formats used and reasons for standardization are discussed. (DH)

  4. Global warming and interest rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rey, Francisco C.

    1999-01-01

    The socio-economical growth of our country will yield unavoidably a sustained growth on the energy demand, particularly on the electricity demand. If the expected assumptions are fulfilled, the needed power needed to cover the electrical demand between 1997 and 2020 will almost triple, and the natural gas consumption by the generating facilities and CO 2 emissions in that sector will multiply by five. If the emissions of other sector grow at the same rate as those of the electric sector the level of the emissions in our country will be equivalent to those of the developed countries at present. It is imperative to put limits to the growth of those emissions. In order to avoid that limiting of the emissions to be just a declaration, it is necessary to find and implement mechanisms that will lead to that goal. In the electric sector, and in order to promote the use of energy sources free of those emissions, the possible measures are: Application of an emission tax of U$ 10 (or higher) per ton of CO 2 and use of the resulting funds to cause a decrease in the interest rate applied to electric generation projects which do not emit greenhouse gases. Contributions by the countries responsible for the present level of CO 2 in the atmosphere to lower the incidence of the initial capital costs on the generation costs for the same type of projects (via low rate loans or subsidies). Being active any one of these two mechanisms (or both), will provoke those clean generation sources to compete successfully and will allow them to be a valuable tool to effectively diminish the growth of the emissions of those gases from the electric sector. Besides, a tax of such magnitude would not provoke an important increase on the electric energy prices. If any mechanism is implemented which intends to effectively diminish the CO 2 emissions, the first important project to be completed is the completion of the Atucha II power station. (author)

  5. Supersymmetrically transformed periodic potentials

    OpenAIRE

    C, David J. Fernandez

    2003-01-01

    The higher order supersymmetric partners of a stationary periodic potential are studied. The transformation functions associated to the band edges do not change the spectral structure. However, when the transformation is implemented for factorization energies inside of the forbidden bands, the final potential will have again the initial band structure but it can have bound states encrusted into the gaps, giving place to localized periodicity defects.

  6. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rojith Karandode Balakrishnan; Suresh Rama Chandran; Geetha Thirumalnesan; Nedumaran Doraisamy

    2011-01-01

    This article aims at highlighting the importance of suspecting thyrotoxicosis in cases of recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis; especially in Asian men to facilitate early diagnosis of the former condition. A case report of a 28 year old male patient with recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis has been presented. Hypokalemia secondary to thyrotoxicosis was diagnosed as the cause of the paralysis. The patient was given oral potassium intervention over 24 hours. The patient showed complete recove...

  7. Universal cycle periods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de E.A. (Bert); Franses, P.H.P.H.

    2009-01-01

    We present a meta-analysis of cycles in historical economic data. The literature on stochastic and deterministic cycles in variables such as the consumer price index, employment, interest rates, commodity prices, and GDP is huge and scattered, but our meta-analysis reveals various communalities. Our

  8. Performance-vested stock options and interest alignment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of performance-vested stock options (PVSOs) in aligning management interests and shareholder wealth. Using 4238 executive-level observations for 1383 executive directors from the largest 244 UK non-financial firms over the 1999-2004 period, we find that the use of

  9. Performance-vested stock options and interest alignment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of performance-vested stock options (PVSOs) in aligning management interests and shareholder wealth. Using 4238 executive-level observations for 1383 executive directors from the largest 244 UK non-financial firms over the 1999–2004 period, we find that the use of

  10. 27 CFR 70.90 - Interest on underpayments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... notice and demand. (d) Satisfaction by credits. If any portion of a tax is satisfied by credit of an... is not paid within 10 days from the date of notice and demand therefor, and in such case interest shall be imposed only for the period from the date of the notice and demand to the date of payment. (2...

  11. Determinants of Commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper investigated the determinants of commercial banks' interest rate spreads in Botswana using time series cross-sectional analysis for the period of 2004Q1 to 2014Q4. Factors empirically tested are bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic data. Results indicate that bank intermediation, GDP, inflation ...

  12. Interesting bone scans - unusual findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobson, M.; Wadhwa, S.S.; Mansberg, R.; Fernandes, V.B.

    1997-01-01

    fibrous dysplasia. Three cases with interesting and unusual bone scan findings assisted in further management and treatment of patients

  13. Development Of The Social Interest Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greever, K. B.; And Others

    1973-01-01

    A Social Interest Index was developed to measure the level of social interest an individual has attained. Social interest was viewed as the willingness to contribute and cooperate within the areas of four life tasks (works, friendship, love, and self-significance). Findings relate the level of social interest to the variables of sex, socioeconomic…

  14. 48 CFR 52.232-17 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Contractor to the Government under this contract shall bear simple interest from the date due until paid... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Interest. 52.232-17... Interest. As prescribed in 32.611(a) and (b), insert the following clause: INTEREST (OCT 2010) (a) Except...

  15. 20 CFR 725.608 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... simple annual interest, computed from the date on which the benefits were due. The interest shall be... payment of retroactive benefits, the beneficiary shall also be entitled to simple annual interest on such... entitled to simple annual interest computed from the date upon which the beneficiary's right to additional...

  16. Interests, Effort, Achievement and Vocational Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjoberg, L.

    1984-01-01

    Relationships between interest in natural sciences and technology and perceived ability, success, and invested effort were studied in Swedish secondary school students. Interests were accounted for by logical orientation and practical value. Interests and grades were strongly correlated, but correlations between interests and effort and vocational…

  17. 24 CFR 232.560 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest rate. 232.560 Section 232... Equipment Eligible Security Instruments § 232.560 Interest rate. (a) The loan shall bear interest at the rate agreed upon by the lender and the borrower. (b) Interest shall be payable in monthly installments...

  18. 7 CFR 4280.124 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4280.124 Section 4280.124 Agriculture... Improvements Program Section B. Guaranteed Loans § 4280.124 Interest rates. (a) The interest rate for the... in similar circumstances in the ordinary course of business. The interest rate charged is subject to...

  19. 7 CFR 4279.125 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4279.125 Section 4279.125 Agriculture... Interest rates. The interest rate for the guaranteed loan will be negotiated between the lender and the applicant and may be either fixed or variable as long as it is a legal rate. Interest rates will not be more...

  20. 24 CFR 200.83 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest rate. 200.83 Section 200... Eligibility Requirements for Existing Projects Mortgage Provisions § 200.83 Interest rate. (a) The mortgage shall bear interest at the rate agreed upon by the mortgagee and the mortgagor. (b) Interest shall be...

  1. 7 CFR 1980.320 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Interest rate. 1980.320 Section 1980.320 Agriculture... REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) GENERAL Rural Housing Loans § 1980.320 Interest rate. The interest rate must not... interest rate over the life of the loan. The rate shall be agreed upon by the borrower and the Lender and...

  2. 7 CFR 4274.325 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4274.325 Section 4274.325 Agriculture... (IRP) § 4274.325 Interest rates. (a) Loans made by the Agency pursuant to this subpart shall bear interest at a fixed rate of 1 percent per annum over the term of the loan. (b) Interest rates charged by...

  3. U. S. and Canadian Indian Periodicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, John

    The document lists and discusses Indian-published and Indian-oriented newspapers, periodicals, and other assorted publications generally designed to establish a communication system reflecting the interest of the majority of American Indians. Also provided are resumes of several publications that are thought to have gained wide acceptance through…

  4. Family interests and medical decisions for children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baines, Paul

    2017-10-01

    Medical decisions for children are usually justified by the claim that they are in a child's best interests. More recently, following criticisms of the best interests standard, some advocate that the family's interests should influence medical decisions for children, although what is meant by family interests is often not made clear. I argue that at least two senses of family interests may be discerned. There is a 'weak' sense (as the amalgamated interests of family members) of family interests and a 'strong' sense (that the family itself has interests over and above the interests of individuals). I contend that there are problems with both approaches in making medical decisions for children but that the weak sense is more plausible. Despite this, I argue that claims for family interests are not helpful in making medical decisions for children. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Diffraction Theory and Almost Periodic Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strungaru, Nicolae; Terauds, Venta

    2016-09-01

    We introduce and study the notions of translation bounded tempered distributions, and autocorrelation for a tempered distribution. We further introduce the spaces of weakly, strongly and null weakly almost periodic tempered distributions and show that for weakly almost periodic tempered distributions the Eberlein decomposition holds. For translation bounded measures all these notions coincide with the classical ones. We show that tempered distributions with measure Fourier transform are weakly almost periodic and that for this class, the Eberlein decomposition is exactly the Fourier dual of the Lebesgue decomposition, with the Fourier-Bohr coefficients specifying the pure point part of the Fourier transform. We complete the project by looking at few interesting examples.

  6. Periodicity in Age-Resolved Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esipov, Sergei

    We discuss the interplay between the non-linear diffusion and age-resolved population dynamics. Depending on the age properties of collective migration the system may exhibit continuous joint expansion of all ages or continuous expansion with age segregation. Between these two obvious limiting regimes there is an interesting window of periodic expansion, which has been previously used by us in modeling bacterial colonies of Proteus mirabilis. In order to test whether the age-dependent collective migration leads to periodicity in other systems we performed a Fourier analysis of historical data on ethnic expansions and found multiple co-existing periods of activity.

  7. Periodic table of elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fluck, E.; Heumann, K.G.

    1985-01-01

    Following a recommendation by the International Union for Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC), the groups of the periodic table shall be numbered from 1 to 18, instead of I to VIII as before. The recommendations has been approved of by the Committee on Nomenclature of the American Chemical Society. The new system abandons the distinction between main groups (a) and auxiliary groups (b), which in the past frequently has been the reason for misunderstandings between European and American chemists, due to different handling. The publishing house VCH Verlagsgesellschaft recently produced a new periodic table that shows the old and the new numbering system together at a glance, so that chemists will have time to get familiar with the new system. In addition the new periodic table represents an extensive data compilation arranged by elements. The front page lists the chemical properties of elements, the back page their physical properties. (orig./EF) [de

  8. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rojith Karandode Balakrishnan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims at highlighting the importance of suspecting thyrotoxicosis in cases of recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis; especially in Asian men to facilitate early diagnosis of the former condition. A case report of a 28 year old male patient with recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis has been presented. Hypokalemia secondary to thyrotoxicosis was diagnosed as the cause of the paralysis. The patient was given oral potassium intervention over 24 hours. The patient showed complete recovery after the medical intervention and was discharged after 24 hours with no residual paralysis. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis (TPP is a complication of thyrotoxicosis, more common amongst males in Asia. It presents as acute flaccid paralysis in a case of hyperthyroidism with associated hypokalemia. The features of thyrotoxicosis may be subtle or absent. Thus, in cases of recurrent or acute flaccid muscle paralysis, it is important to consider thyrotoxicosis as one of the possible causes, and take measures accordingly.

  9. 13 CFR 120.213 - What fixed interest rates may a Lender charge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender charge? 120.213 Section 120.213 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION... have a reasonable fixed interest rate. SBA periodically publishes the maximum allowable rate in the... government determines the interest rate on direct loans. SBA publishes the rate periodically in the Federal...

  10. Revisiting Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Switching Between UIP and the Random Walk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we examine in which periods uncovered interest rate parity was likely to hold. Empirical research has shown mixed evidence on UIP. The main finding is that it doesn’t hold, although some researchers were not able to reject UIP in periods with large interest differentials

  11. Electromagnetic Radiation of Electrons in Periodic Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Potylitsyn, Alexander Petrovich

    2011-01-01

    Periodic magnetic structures (undulators) are widely used in accelerators to generate monochromatic undulator radiation (UR) in the range from far infrared to the hard X-ray region. Another periodic crystalline structure is used to produce quasimonochromatic polarized photon beams via the coherent bremsstrahlung mechanism (CBS). Due to such characteristics as monochromaticity, polarization and adjustability, these types of radiation is of large interest for applied and basic research of accelerator-emitted radiation. The book provides a detailed overview of the fundamental principles behind electromagnetic radiation emitted from accelerated charged particles (e.g. UR, CBS, radiation of fast electrons in Laser flash fields) as well as a unified description of relatively new radiation mechanisms which attracted great interest in recent years. This are the so-called polarization radiation excited by the Coulomb field of incident particles in periodic structures, parametric X-rays, resonant transition radiation a...

  12. Periodically poled silicon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Nick K.; Tsia, Kevin K.; Solli, Daniel R.; Khurgin, Jacob B.; Jalali, Bahram

    2010-02-01

    Bulk centrosymmetric silicon lacks second-order optical nonlinearity χ(2) - a foundational component of nonlinear optics. Here, we propose a new class of photonic device which enables χ(2) as well as quasi-phase matching based on periodic stress fields in silicon - periodically-poled silicon (PePSi). This concept adds the periodic poling capability to silicon photonics, and allows the excellent crystal quality and advanced manufacturing capabilities of silicon to be harnessed for devices based on χ(2)) effects. The concept can also be simply achieved by having periodic arrangement of stressed thin films along a silicon waveguide. As an example of the utility, we present simulations showing that mid-wave infrared radiation can be efficiently generated through difference frequency generation from near-infrared with a conversion efficiency of 50% based on χ(2) values measurements for strained silicon reported in the literature [Jacobson et al. Nature 441, 199 (2006)]. The use of PePSi for frequency conversion can also be extended to terahertz generation. With integrated piezoelectric material, dynamically control of χ(2)nonlinearity in PePSi waveguide may also be achieved. The successful realization of PePSi based devices depends on the strength of the stress induced χ(2) in silicon. Presently, there exists a significant discrepancy in the literature between the theoretical and experimentally measured values. We present a simple theoretical model that produces result consistent with prior theoretical works and use this model to identify possible reasons for this discrepancy.

  13. Hereditary periodic fever syndromes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermott, MF; Frenkel, J

    Hereditary periodic fever syndromes are defined by recurrent attacks of generalised inflammation for which no infectious or auto-immune cause can be identified. For most of these disorders, the molecular basis has recently been elucidated. This has opened the prospect of novel therapeutic

  14. Almost periodic Schroedinger operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellissard, J.; Lima, R.

    1984-01-01

    These lectures are devoted to recent developments in the theory of almost-periodic Schroedinger Operators. We specially describe the algebraic point of view, with applications to gap-labelling theorems. Particular models are also presented which exhibit various spectral properties. (orig.)

  15. Astrophysical implications of periodicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    Two remarkable discoveries of the last decade have profound implications for astrophysics and for geophysics. These are the discovery by Alvarez et al., that certain mass extinctions are caused by the impact on the earth of a large asteroid or comet, and the discovery by Raup and Sepkoski that such extinctions are periodic, with a cycle time of 26 to 30 million years. The validity of both of these discoveries is assumed and the implications are examined. Most of the phenomena described depend not on periodicity, but just on the weaker assumption that the impacts on the earth take place primarily in showers. Proposed explanations for the periodicity include galactic oscillations, the Planet X model, and the possibility of Nemesis, a solar companion star. These hypotheses are critically examined. Results of the search for the solar companion are reported. The Deccan flood basalts of India have been proposed as the impact site for the Cretaceous impact, but this hypotheisis is in contradiction with the conclusion of Courtillot et al., that the magma flow began during a period of normal magnetic field. A possible resolution of this contradiction is proposed

  16. Periodic Table of Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mike

    1998-01-01

    Presents an exercise in which an eighth-grade science teacher decorated the classroom with a periodic table of students. Student photographs were arranged according to similarities into vertical columns. Students were each assigned an atomic number according to their placement in the table. The table is then used to teach students about…

  17. A Modern Periodic Table.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrenden-Harker, B. D.

    1997-01-01

    Presents a modern Periodic Table based on the electron distribution in the outermost shell and the order of filling of the sublevels within the shells. Enables a student to read off directly the electronic configuration of the element and the order in which filling occurs. (JRH)

  18. Potential and Challenges of Low-Cost and High-Tech Crowd-sensing Approaches in Hydrometeorology for Better Water Resources Management - Insights and Learnings from the Global iMoMo Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegfried, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    In developing and transition countries and despite significant global investments in hydrometeorology, data on water remain scarce/fragmented. One key reason is that traditional sensing in hydrology, hydro- and agro-meteorology does not scale because of high investment costs and difficult maintenance of traditional technology, esp. in remote and/or poor regions. Even where there are data, these are often difficult to access and interpret for local stakeholders due outdated data transmission and the lack of access to modern tools for data management/analysis/synthesis and exchange. In recent years, there have been substantial technology developments in environmental sensing and mobile communication technology that enable the application and deployment of affordable and scalable high-tech solutions for better water monitoring at different scales (local to transboundary levels). The WMO is acknowledging and promoting the potential for application of these technologies. One key aspect is to anchor these technologies in local communities that perform crowd-sensing tasks on a regular basis. The merits as well as challenges (including introduction of human factor, less accuracy as compared to traditional sensing, intermittency of data, …) of such approaches will be discussed in the context of the WMO-led Global iMoMo Initiative and its numerous activities on the ground in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in Central Asia.

  19. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreiro, J.E.; Arguelles, D.J.; Rams, H. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A case of thyrotoxic periodic paralysis is reported in a Hispanic man with an unusual recurrence six weeks after radioactive iodine treatment. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis has now been well characterized in the literature: it occurs primarily in Orientals with an overwhelming male preponderance and a higher association of specific HLA antigens. Clinical manifestations include onset after high carbohydrate ingestion or heavy exertion, with progressive symmetric weakness leading to flaccid paralysis of the extremities and other muscle groups, lasting several hours. If hypokalemia is present, potassium administration may help abort the attack. Although propranolol can be efficacious in preventing further episodes, the only definitive treatment is establishing a euthyroid state. The pathophysiology is still controversial, but reflects altered potassium and calcium dynamics as well as certain morphologic characteristics within the muscle unit itself

  20. Determinants of the net interest margins in BH banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plakalović Novo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the subject of analysis is influence of certain macroeconomic and microeconomic variables on bank net interest margins in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH for the period from 2008 to 2013 through a multiple linear regression models. The level and dynamics of NIM indicate the efficiency of financial intermediation. The observed period is characterized by the reduction in net interest margins of banks over the previous decade, which was characterized by high GDP growth, bank loans and high-interest rates and high profitability. Therefore, this study examines the factors that affect the level of net interest margins in the domestic banking industry. The main objective of this paper is to determine whether there is interdependence in the movement between the independent and dependent variables through a multiple linear regression. The net interest margin will be observed as a dependent variable, and liquidity risk, operating costs, credit risk, the index of market concentration, funding risk, the growth rate of gross domestic product and consumer price index will be used as independent variables.

  1. Association between competing interests and authors' conclusions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaergard, Lise L; Als-Nielsen, Bodil

    2002-01-01

    To assess the association between competing interests and authors' conclusions in randomised clinical trials.......To assess the association between competing interests and authors' conclusions in randomised clinical trials....

  2. Individual predictors of adolescents’ vocational interest stabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Hirschi, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The study investigated the predictive utility of interest profile differentiation, coherence, elevation, congruence, and vocational identity commitment and career maturity (career planning and exploration) on the 10-month interest stability of 292 Swiss eighth-grade students: profile, rank, and level stabilities were assessed. Controlling for socio-demographic and vocational interest type variables, measures of differentiated and coherent vocational interests were significant predictors of pr...

  3. COMPENSATORY INTEREST SETTLEMENT AND CREDIT BANKING MORATORIUM

    OpenAIRE

    Avelino Sánchez, Esteban Marino

    2014-01-01

    First is explained the reasons for this article, it mentions the specific legal rules that support the settlement of interest on the credit operations of companies in the financial system with end users, and then presents the average interest rates of some operations credit. Then we present the formula for calculating interest, and illustrates its application with examples 1 and 2 (the simplest). The following is, in examples 3 and 4, the calculation of interest with imputation of partial pay...

  4. Investigating Situational Interest in Primary Science Lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loukomies, Anni; Juuti, Kalle; Lavonen, Jari

    2015-01-01

    Pupils' interest has been one of the major concerns in science education research because it can be seen as a gateway to more personalised forms of interest and motivation. However, methods to investigate situational interest in science teaching and learning are not broadly examined. This study compares the pupils' observed situational interest…

  5. 7 CFR 1767.23 - Interest charges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... charges. The interest charges accounts identified in this section shall be used by all RUS borrowers... Charges 427Interest on Long-Term Debt A. This account shall include the amount of interest on outstanding long-term debt issued or assumed by the utility, the liability for which included in Account 221, Bonds...

  6. 7 CFR 3550.66 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 3550.66 Section 3550.66 Agriculture... DIRECT SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Section 502 Origination § 3550.66 Interest rate. Loans will be written using the applicable RHS interest rate in effect at loan approval or loan closing...

  7. 12 CFR 614.4155 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 614.4155 Section 614.4155 Banks... Policies for Banks and Associations § 614.4155 Interest rates. Loans made by each bank and direct lender association shall bear interest at a rate or rates as may be determined by the institution board. The board...

  8. 76 FR 59767 - Interest Rates; Notice

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-27

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Interest Rates; Notice AGENCY: Small Business Administration. The Small Business Administration publishes an interest rate called the optional ``peg'' rate (13 CFR 120... fluctuating interest rate SBA loans. This rate will be 3.125 (3\\1/8\\) percent for the October-December quarter...

  9. 7 CFR 1779.33 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 1779.33 Section 1779.33 Agriculture... (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.33 Interest rates. (a) General. Rates.... Interest rates will be those rates customarily charged borrowers in similar circumstances in the ordinary...

  10. 8 CFR 293.2 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 293.2 Section 293.2 Aliens... CASH RECEIVED TO SECURE IMMIGRATION BONDS § 293.2 Interest rate. The Secretary of the Treasury has determined that effective from date of deposit occurring after April 27, 1966, the interest rate shall be 3...

  11. 7 CFR 3575.33 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 3575.33 Section 3575.33 Agriculture... GENERAL Community Programs Guaranteed Loans § 3575.33 Interest rates. (a) General. Rates will be negotiated between the lender and the borrower. They may be either fixed or variable rates. Interest rates...

  12. 5 CFR 1655.7 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 1655.7 Section 1655.7 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD LOAN PROGRAM § 1655.7 Interest rate. (a... interest rate established by the Department of the Treasury in effect on the date the TSP record keeper...

  13. 7 CFR 1950.105 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Interest rate. 1950.105 Section 1950.105 Agriculture... rate. (a) The Soldiers and Sailors Relief Act requires that the effective interest rate charged a... Supervisor will send the borrower a letter which states that the interest rate on the borrower's FmHA or its...

  14. 13 CFR 120.932 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 120.932 Section 120.932 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Development Company Loan Program (504) 504 Loans and Debentures § 120.932 Interest rate. The interest rate of the 504 Loan...

  15. 7 CFR 1980.423 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Interest rates. 1980.423 Section 1980.423 Agriculture... REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) GENERAL Business and Industrial Loan Program § 1980.423 Interest rates. (a) Guaranteed... variable as long as they are legal. Interest rates will be those rates customarily charged borrowers in...

  16. 7 CFR 1714.4 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 1714.4 Section 1714.4 Agriculture... PRE-LOAN POLICIES AND PROCEDURES FOR INSURED ELECTRIC LOANS General § 1714.4 Interest rates. (a) Municipal rate loans. Each advance of funds on a municipal rate loan shall bear interest at a single rate...

  17. 27 CFR 6.27 - Proprietary interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS âTIED-HOUSEâ Unlawful Inducements Interest in Retail License § 6.27 Proprietary interest. (a) Complete ownership. Outright ownership of a retail business by an industry member is.... Less than complete ownership of a retail business by an industry member constitutes an interest in a...

  18. 27 CFR 6.33 - Proprietary interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS âTIED-HOUSEâ Unlawful Inducements Interest in Retail Property § 6.33 Proprietary interest. (a) Complete ownership. Outright ownership of a retail business by an industry member is.... Less than complete ownership of a retail business by an industry member constitutes an interest in...

  19. 26 CFR 509.109 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... SWITZERLAND General Income Tax § 509.109 Interest. The rate of United States tax imposed by the Internal Revenue Code of 1954 upon interest on bonds, securities, notes, debentures, or on any other form of... 26 Internal Revenue 19 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest. 509.109 Section 509.109 Internal...

  20. Period Variations for the Cepheid VZ Cyg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirorattanakul, Krittanon; Engle, Scott; Pepper, Joshua; Wells, Mark; Laney, Clifton D.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Stassun, Keivan G.

    2017-12-01

    The Cepheid Period-Luminosity law is a key rung on the extragalactic distance ladder. However, numerous Cepheids are known to undergo period variations. Monitoring, refining, and understanding these period variations allows us to better determine the parameters of the Cepheids themselves and of the instability strip in which they reside, and to test models of stellar evolution. VZ Cyg, a classical Cepheid pulsating at ˜4.864 days, has been observed for over 100 years. Combining data from literature observations, the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) transit survey, and new targeted observations with the Robotically Controlled Telescope (RCT) at Kitt Peak, we find a period change rate of dP/dt = -0.0642 ± 0.0018 s yr-1. However, when only the recent observations are examined, we find a much higher period change rate of dP/dt = -0.0923 ± 0.0110 s yr-1. This higher rate could be due to an apparent long-term (P ≈ 26.5 years) cyclic period variation. The possible interpretations of this single Cepheid’s complex period variations underscore both the need to regularly monitor pulsating variables and the important benefits that photometric surveys such as KELT can have on the field. Further monitoring of this interesting example of Cepheid variability is recommended to confirm and better understand the possible cyclic period variations. Further, Cepheid timing analyses are necessary to fully understand their current behaviors and parameters, as well as their evolutionary histories.

  1. Periodization Theory: Confronting an Inconvenient Truth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiely, John

    2018-04-01

    Periodization theory has, over the past seven decades, emerged as the preeminent training planning paradigm. The philosophical underpinnings of periodization theory can be traced back to the integration of diverse shaping influences, whereby coaching beliefs and traditions were blended with historically available scientific insights and contextualized against pervading social planning models. Since then, many dimensions of elite preparation have evolved significantly, as driven by a combination of coaching innovations and science-led advances in training theory, techniques, and technologies. These advances have been incorporated into the fabric of the pre-existing periodization planning framework, yet the philosophical assumptions underpinning periodization remain largely unchallenged and unchanged. One particularly influential academic sphere of study, the science of stress, particularly the work of Hans Selye, is repeatedly cited by theorists as a central pillar upon which periodization theory is founded. A fundamental assumption emanating from the early stress research is that physical stress is primarily a biologically mediated phenomenon: a presumption translated to athletic performance contexts as evidence that mechanical training stress directly regulates the magnitude of subsequent 'fitness' adaptations. Interestingly, however, since periodization theory first emerged, the science of stress has evolved extensively from its historical roots. This raises a fundamental question: if the original scientific platform upon which periodization theory was founded has disintegrated, should we critically re-evaluate conventional perspectives through an updated conceptual lens? Realigning periodization philosophy with contemporary stress theory thus presents us with an opportunity to recalibrate training planning models with both contemporary scientific insight and progressive coaching practice.

  2. Polysheroidal periodic functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truskova, N.F.

    1985-01-01

    Separation of variables in the Helmholtz N-dimensional (N≥4) equation in polyspheroidal coordinate systems leads to the necessity of solving equations going over into equations for polyspheroidal periodic functions used for solving the two-centre problem in quantum mechanics, the three-body problem with Coulomb interaction, etc. For these functions the expansions are derived in terms of the Jacobi polynomials and Bessel functions. Their basic properties, asymptotics are considered. The algorithm of their computer calculations is developed. The results of numerical calculations are given

  3. Deciphering Periodic Methanol Masers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stecklum, Bringfried; Caratti o Garatti, Alessio; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus; Hopp, Ulrich; Kraus, Alex; Linz, Hendrik; Sanna, Alberto; Sobolev, Andrej; Wolf, Verena

    2018-05-01

    Impressive progress has been made in recent years on massive star formation, yet the involved high optical depths even at submm/mm wavelengths make it difficult to reveal its details. Recently, accretion bursts of massive YSOs have been identified to cause flares of Class II methanol masers (methanol masers for short) due to enhanced mid-IR pumping. This opens a new window to protostellar accretion variability, and implies that periodic methanol masers hint at cyclic accretion. Pinning down the cause of the periodicity requires joint IR and radio monitoring. We derived the first IR light curve of a periodic maser host from NEOWISE data. The source, G107.298+5.639, is an intermediate-mass YSO hosting methanol and water masers which flare every 34.5 days. Our recent joint K-band and radio observations yielded first but marginal evidence for a phase lag between the rise of IR and maser emission, respectively, and revealed that both NEOWISE and K-band light curves are strongly affected by the light echo from the ambient dust. Both the superior resolution of IRAC over NEOWISE and the longer wavelengths compared to our ground-based imaging are required to inhibit the distractive contamination by the light echo. Thus, we ask for IRAC monitoring of G107 to cover one flare cycle, in tandem with 100-m Effelsberg and 2-m Wendelstein radio and NIR observations to obtain the first high-quality synoptic measurements of this kind of sources. The IR-maser phase lag, the intrinsic shape of the IR light curves and their possible color variation during the cycle allow us to constrain models for the periodic maser excitation. Since methanol masers are signposts of intermediate-mass and massive YSOs, deciphering their variability offers a clue to the dynamics of the accretion-mediated growth of massive stars and their feedback onto the immediate natal environment. The Spitzer light curve of such a maser-hosting YSO would be a legacy science product of the mission.

  4. 7 CFR 1810.2 - Adjustment of interest rates for certain loans involving use of or construction on prime or...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Adjustment of interest rates for certain loans... INTEREST RATES, TERMS, CONDITIONS, AND APPROVAL AUTHORITY Interest Rates, Amortization, Guarantee Fee, Annual Charge, and Fixed Period § 1810.2 Adjustment of interest rates for certain loans involving use of...

  5. Credit Risk Management and Interest Income of Banks in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fapetu, Oladapo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impact of credit risk on the interest income of banks in Nigeria between the period of 2000 and 2014. Unbalanced panel data analysis was used to estimate the model with unit root test, Breusch Pagan test, trend analysis, descriptive statistics, Perasan CD Test, heteroskedasticity test, heterogeneity test, serial correlation test, Jarquebera, F-statistics, random effect, fixed effect, time effect, Prob value, Hausman test and rho as the estimation parameters. The study discovered that NPL, LLP and LA are statistically significant in explaining the variation in interest income across banks in Nigeria, while LA/TD is not statistically significant in explaining the variation in interest income across banks in Nigeria. Based on this, the study recommends that regular update of credit policy and adequate measures to monitor loans should be put in place by banks in Nigeria, as these measures will reduce bad loans and ultimately cause a reduction in loan loss provisions.

  6. Congress and National Security: Interest, Influence and Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    but instead a quick response in a period of already great distrust of the executive branch in the aftermath of Vietnam and Watergate . Congress had...Option,” Foreign Policy 39 (1980): 143–153. 22 continue to dominate the debate through the Iran-Contra scandal .49 Loch Johnson concludes, “the...Princeton University Press, 2007), 48–49. 23 Lindsay cites the Iran-Contra scandal as another interesting oversight dilemma. Although the

  7. Inventory Investment and the Real Interest Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Junayed, Sadaquat; Khan, Hashmat

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between inventory investment and the real interest rate has been difficult to assess empirically. Recent work has proposed a linear-quadratic inventory model with time-varying discount factor to identify the effects of the real interest rate on inventory investment. The authors show that this framework does not separately identify the effects of real interest rate on inventory investment from variables that determine the expected marginal cost of production. In other words, t...

  8. Regional gray matter correlates of vocational interests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, David H; Haier, Richard J; Tang, Cheuk Ying

    2012-05-16

    Previous studies have identified brain areas related to cognitive abilities and personality, respectively. In this exploratory study, we extend the application of modern neuroimaging techniques to another area of individual differences, vocational interests, and relate the results to an earlier study of cognitive abilities salient for vocations. First, we examined the psychometric relationships between vocational interests and abilities in a large sample. The primary relationships between those domains were between Investigative (scientific) interests and general intelligence and between Realistic ("blue-collar") interests and spatial ability. Then, using MRI and voxel-based morphometry, we investigated the relationships between regional gray matter volume and vocational interests. Specific clusters of gray matter were found to be correlated with Investigative and Realistic interests. Overlap analyses indicated some common brain areas between the correlates of Investigative interests and general intelligence and between the correlates of Realistic interests and spatial ability. Two of six vocational-interest scales show substantial relationships with regional gray matter volume. The overlap between the brain correlates of these scales and cognitive-ability factors suggest there are relationships between individual differences in brain structure and vocations.

  9. Global nursing management. Avoiding conflicts of interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willers, Lisa

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally, the healthcare industry has been no stranger to some conflicts of interest. However, as healthcare responds to demands to contain costs and adapts business models that resemble those of the corporate world, new conflicts of interest arise. Nurse executives operating in healthcare systems today must have an understanding of conflicts of interest in order to promptly identify actual as well as potential conflicts. It is imperative that strategies are set in place to prevent or handle conflicts of interest as they occur in order to build trusting relationships with patients, suppliers, and communities.

  10. Remarks on Interest Rate Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena-Violeta DRAGOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Bank interest and interest rate risk management is a contemporary subject and for socio-economic environment of Romania cause serious consequences in the level of economic development. The purpose of this research is to highlight the main indicator that measures the total cost of a loan, namely the annual percentage rate (APR, because if we refer to an interest rate lower, at first glance that loan seems more advantageous, but at a closer look, taking into account the commissions charged by the bank, we see that the loan is more expensive compared to another, whose interest rate is higher.

  11. [Childhood periodic syndromes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuvellier, J-C; Lépine, A

    2010-01-01

    This review focuses on the so-called "periodic syndromes of childhood that are precursors to migraine", as included in the Second Edition of the International Classification of Headache Disorders. Three periodic syndromes of childhood are included in the Second Edition of the International Classification of Headache Disorders: abdominal migraine, cyclic vomiting syndrome and benign paroxysmal vertigo, and a fourth, benign paroxysmal torticollis is presented in the Appendix. The key clinical features of this group of disorders are the episodic pattern and intervals of complete health. Episodes of benign paroxysmal torticollis begin between 2 and 8 months of age. Attacks are characterized by an abnormal inclination and/or rotation of the head to one side, due to cervical dystonia. They usually resolve by 5 years. Benign paroxysmal vertigo presents as sudden attacks of vertigo, accompanied by inability to stand without support, and lasting seconds to minutes. Age at onset is between 2 and 4 years, and the symptoms disappear by the age of 5. Cyclic vomiting syndrome is characterized in young infants and children by repeated stereotyped episodes of pernicious vomiting, at times to the point of dehydration, and impacting quality of life. Mean age of onset is 5 years. Abdominal migraine remains a controversial issue and presents in childhood with repeated stereotyped episodes of unexplained abdominal pain, nausea and vomiting occurring in the absence of headache. Mean age of onset is 7 years. Both cyclic vomiting syndrome and abdominal migraine are noted for the absence of pathognomonic clinical features but also for the large number of other conditions to be considered in their differential diagnoses. Diagnostic criteria, such as those of the Second Edition of the International Classification of Headache Disorders and the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, have made diagnostic approach and management easier. Their diagnosis

  12. Nonparametric Inference for Periodic Sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Ying; Hart, Jeffrey D.; Genton, Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    the periodogram, a widely used tool for period estimation. The CV method is computationally simple and implicitly penalizes multiples of the smallest period, leading to a "virtually" consistent estimator of integer periods. This estimator is investigated both

  13. 12 CFR 7.4001 - Charging interest at rates permitted competing institutions; charging interest to corporate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... institutions; charging interest to corporate borrowers. 7.4001 Section 7.4001 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF... interest at rates permitted competing institutions; charging interest to corporate borrowers. (a... the law of that state. If state law permits different interest charges on specified classes of loans...

  14. 26 CFR 1.265-3 - Nondeductibility of interest relating to exempt-interest dividends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... interest relating to exempt-interest dividends. (a) In general. No deduction is allowed to a shareholder of... dividends distributed by the company to the shareholder during the shareholder's taxable year. (b) Interest... amount of exempt-interest dividends received by the shareholder. The denominator of the fraction is the...

  15. How do STEM-interested students pursue multiple interests in their higher educational choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vulperhorst, Jonne Pieter; Wessels, Koen Rens; Bakker, Arthur; Akkerman, Sanne Floor

    2018-05-01

    Interest in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) has lately received attention in research due to a gap between the number of STEM students and the needs of the labour market. As interest seems to be one of the most important factors in deciding what to study, we focus in the present study on how STEM-interested students weigh multiple interests in making educational choices. A questionnaire with both open-ended and closed-ended items was administered to 91 STEM-interested students enrolled in a STEM programme of a Dutch University for secondary school students. Results indicate that students find it important that a study programme allows them to pursue multiple interests. Some students pursued multiple interests by choosing to enrol in two programmes at the same time. Most students chose one programme that enabled them to combine multiple interests. Combinations of pursued interests were dependent on the disciplinary range of interests of students. Students who were interested in diverse domains combined interests in an educational programme across academic and non-academic domains, whilst students who were mainly interested in STEM combined only STEM-focused interests. Together these findings stress the importance of taking a multiple interest perspective on interest development and educational choice.

  16. 48 CFR 32.407 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... REQUIREMENTS CONTRACT FINANCING Advance Payments for Non-Commercial Items 32.407 Interest. (a) Except as provided in paragraph (d) below, the contracting officer shall charge interest on the daily unliquidated... institution (depository) in which the special account (see 32.409-3) is established; or (2) The rate...

  17. special interest councillors in zimbabwean local authorities

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Masiya

    elected councilors reside. Special interest councilors are from wards that are already occupied by elected councilors. Elected and appointed councilors end up pursuing parallel agendas causing confusion and often stalling development in wards. Legislation is silent with regards to what special interest councilors can or.

  18. 31 CFR 357.25 - Security interests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Security interests. 357.25 Section 357.25 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL... System (Legacy Treasury Direct) § 357.25 Security interests. (a) General. The Department will not...

  19. Quantifying the Gender Gap in Science Interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baram-Tsabari, Ayelet; Yarden, Anat

    2011-01-01

    Nearly 5,000 self-generated science-related K-12 students' questions, classified into seven science subjects, were used to quantitatively measure the gender gap in science interests and its change with age. In this data set, a difference between boys' and girls' science interests did not exist during early childhood, but increased over 20-fold by…

  20. Interest in medical therapy for celiac disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennyson, Christina A.; Simpson, Suzanne; Lebwohl, Benjamin; Lewis, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: A gluten-free diet is the treatment for celiac disease, but pharmaceutical agents are being developed. The level of interest amongst patients in using a medication to treat celiac disease is unknown. This study examined the level of interest amongst patients in medication to treat celiac disease. Methods: A questionnaire was distributed to celiac disease patients and data were collected on demographics, presentation, and interest in medication. Three validated celiac disease-specific instruments were incorporated: Celiac Disease Associated Quality of Life, the Celiac Symptom Index, and the Celiac Dietary Adherence Test. Results: Responses were received from 365 individuals with biopsy-proven celiac disease. Respondents were 78% (n = 276) female, 48% (n = 170) over 50 years of age, and experienced a classical (diarrhea predominant) presentation in 44% (n = 154). Of the 339 individuals answering the question regarding use of a medication to treat celiac disease, 66% were interested. Interest was greatest in older individuals (71% >50 years of age versus 60% symptoms with gluten exposure did not demonstrate any effect. Interest in medication was associated with a worse quality of life (CD-QOL 69.4 versus 80.1, p celiac disease are interested in using a medication. Interest was highest among men, older individuals, frequent restaurant customers, individuals dissatisfied with their weight or concerned with the cost of a gluten-free diet, and those with a worse quality of life. PMID:24003336

  1. Interest, Inferences, and Learning from Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; van den Broek, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Topic interest and learning from texts have been found to be positively associated with each other. However, the reason for this positive association is not well understood. The purpose of this study is to examine a cognitive process, inference generation, that could explain the positive association between interest and learning from texts. In…

  2. 76 FR 61046 - TARP Conflicts of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-03

    ... conflict may depend on a variety of factors, including the type of conflict, the scope of work under the... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY 31 CFR Part 31 RIN 1505-AC05 TARP Conflicts of Interest AGENCY... interim rule that provided guidance on conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 108 of the Emergency...

  3. Individual Predictors of Adolescents' Vocational Interest Stabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The study investigated the predictive utility of interest profile differentiation, coherence, elevation, congruence, and vocational identity commitment and career maturity (career planning and exploration) on the 10-month interest stability of 292 Swiss eighth-grade students: profile, rank, and level stabilities were assessed. Controlling for…

  4. An Investigation of Vocational Interests and Noctcaelador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, William E.

    2005-01-01

    This study explored the relationship between vocational interests and noctcaelador, defined as strong interest in, and psychological attachment to, the night sky. University students (N = 134) completed the Vocational Preference Inventory (Form C) and the Noctcaelador Inventory. The results indicated that students scoring higher on noctcaelador…

  5. The Structure of Vocational Interests in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliescu, Dragos; Ispas, Dan; Ilie, Alexandra; Ion, Andrei

    2013-01-01

    Using data provided by the Self-Directed Search (SDS) on a sample of 1,519 participants comprising 3 subsamples containing high school students, university students, and working adults, the authors examine the structure of vocational interests in Romania. Three competing structural models of vocational interests (Holland's circumplex model and…

  6. 26 CFR 1.856-5 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest. 1.856-5 Section 1.856-5 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Real Estate Investment Trusts § 1.856-5 Interest. (a) In general. In computing the percentage...

  7. VOLUNTARY INTEREST ARBITRATION IN THE ETHIOPIAN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    *Birhanu is currently working as the Manager of the Legal Research and Advisory Division ... forth voluntary interest arbitration to the attention of lawyers, employees, .... being selective is a poor design since the basic rules of this law are not .... courts to review interest arbitrators decision on the merit by way of appeal.

  8. 76 FR 16570 - Interest Rate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 741 RIN 3133-AD66 Interest Rate Risk AGENCY... regulations to require Federally insured credit unions to have a written policy addressing interest rate risk... Risk Management for Credit Unions with Large Positions in Fixed Rate Mortgages; 06-CU-16 Inter-Agency...

  9. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE AND INTEREST ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    School of Management Technology,. Federal University of Technology Owerri,. Imo State, Nigeria. Abstract. The study examined the effects of exchange rate and interest rate on the ... the basic values of the firm like interest margin, sales etc. ... the economy, so it provides an easy way to gauge the performance of the entire ...

  10. Interests in School Subjects and Vocational Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjoberg, Lennart; Drottz, Britt-Marie

    1983-01-01

    Reports a study in which Swedish high school students' academic interests were related to perceived effort, ability, and perceived vocational job prospects. Notes that academic interests were based on subjects' logical appeal and practical value. Notes that vocational preferences correlated strongly with individual job prospects but weakly with…

  11. Correlates of Student Interest in Social Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenske, Robert H.; Carmody, James F.

    This study assessed the degree of intellectual interest or involvement which a national sample of 5,623 seniors in 65 colleges and universities has in eight contemporary social issues. Also examined were the relationships of some commonly studied educational variables to this interest. Questionnaire items pertained to the students' evaluation of…

  12. 42 CFR 413.153 - Interest expense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... general rule regarding interest on loans from controlled sources of funds are made in the following... improvement, replacement, or expansion of facilities or equipment related to patient care, allowable interest... to patient care: (i) For loans made to finance acquisition of a facility, that portion of the cost...

  13. The Positive Psychology of Interested Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Jeremy P.; Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly

    2003-01-01

    Using the experience sampling method with a diverse national sample of 1,215 high school students, identified 2 groups of adolescents, those who experience chronic interest in everyday life experiences and those who experience widespread boredom. Suggests that a generalized chronic experience of interest can be a signal of psychological health.…

  14. On pricing of interest rate derivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Di Matteo, T.; Airoldi, M.; Scalas, E.

    2004-01-01

    At present, there is an explosion of practical interest in the pricing of interest rate (IR) derivatives. Textbook pricing methods do not take into account the leptokurticity of the underlying IR process. In this paper, such a leptokurtic behaviour is illustrated using LIBOR data, and a possible martingale pricing scheme is discussed.

  15. International convergence of capital market interest rates.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fase, M.M.G.; Vlaar, P.J.G.

    1997-01-01

    This article investigates the extent of capital market interest rate convergence among six EU countries on the one hand, and a group of four countries with floating exchange rates - US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland - on the other. We conclude that interest rate changes within the EU have been and

  16. Diagnosing Conflict-of-Interest Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    In June 2010, the Association of American Medical Colleges issued the third and final portion of its conflict-of-interest policy initiatives. The task force on "Conflicts of Interest in Clinical Care" did not mince words when it described the impetus for these initiatives: "It is imperative that the possibility or perception of [financial conflict…

  17. Look Inside for Conflicts of Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakewell, Thomas F.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses conflicts of interest in higher education, offering rules of thumb for judging individual situations, tools to help board members address such conflicts, and possible standards to apply when considering conflicts of interest. Also touches on the need to be realistic and the importance of collegiality and trust. (EV)

  18. What Makes a Mathematical Task Interesting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, Rimma

    2016-01-01

    The study addresses the question of what makes a mathematical task interesting to the 9th year students. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 15 students of purposive selection of the 9th year. The students were asked to recall a task they found interesting and engaging during the past three years. An analysis of the tasks was made…

  19. Inflation targeting and interest rate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, W.H.

    2001-01-01

    The thesis contains a collection of papers on issues in inflation targeting and its implications for the way interest rates are set. In this respect, the first part deals with two largely positive issues: the effect of inflation forecast targeting on the term structure of interest rates and the

  20. Interesting Instruction of Programming for Beginners

    OpenAIRE

    横井, 仁史; Hitoshi, YOKOI; 聖徳学園女子短期大学; Shotoku Gakuen Women's Junior Collge

    1994-01-01

    Programming needs logoical thinking as mathematics. But I have an experience that I insturucted Programming for beginners as mathematics, then most of students did not like Prgramming. Interesting Insturuction for example to make pictures and games in computer fits for beginners. So I show Interesting Insturuction of programming for beginners in SHOTOKU Juior College.

  1. Timber harvesting with variable prices, costs and interest rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penttinen, M.

    2000-01-01

    This papers solves the optimal harvesting time problem of a non- industrial private forest (NIPF) owner who typically has a forest management plan and merchantable forest stands. The optimal harvesting time is defined in a volatile market situation. The infinite period problem is also formulated to allow for variable stumpage prices and reforestation costs in a two-period framework, the first of which covers the near future with dynamic price and cost functions and the second the rest of the infinite future with trend price and cost functions. The existence and uniqueness of an optimal policy is demonstrated on the basis of the explicit quasi- concavity of the objective functions. First, the solutions are constructed with prices and costs dependent on stand age only. Both cases in which the same prices and costs hold for all periods and cases in which there are dynamic prices and costs in the first period and trend ones in subsequent periods are considered. Second, the age-dependent functions are multiplied separately by the calendar time dependent exponential terms. Solutions are provided both in the case with the same age-dependent functions and the case with dynamic functions for the first period and trend functions for the subsequent periods. The sensitivity and comparative static analyses are studied with respect to the interest rate, price and cost changes, both analytically and numerically. Optimal rotation solutions are presented with alternative competing volume growth functions. Final results are provided by a gross income growth function. Competing optimisation models are discussed, and alternative volume growth models and a value growth model are compared. The key notion of the research is the sensitivity and comparative static analysis of the optimal rotation solutions with respect to roundwood prices, reforestation costs and interest rates. Different local market parameter and alternative growth data estimates are applied in testing the impact of

  2. Situational Interest in Engineering Design Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonderup Dohn, Niels

    2013-08-01

    The aim of the present mixed-method study was to investigate task-based situational interest of sixth grade students (n = 46), between 12 and 14 years old, during an eight-week engineering design programme in a Science & Technology-class. Students' interests were investigated by means of a descriptive interpretative analysis of qualitative data from classroom observations and informal interviews. The analysis was complemented by a self-report survey to validate findings and determine prevalence. The analysis revealed four main sources of interest: designing inventions, trial-and-error experimentation, achieved functionality of invention, and collaboration. These sources differ in terms of stimuli factors, such as novelty, autonomy (choice), social involvement, self-generation of interest, and task goal orientation. The study shows that design tasks stimulated interest, but only to the extent that students were able to self-regulate their learning strategies.

  3. Rising Long-term Interest Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Andrew Hughes

    Rather than chronicle recent developments in European long-term interest rates as such, this paper assesses the impact of increases in those interest rates on economic performance and inflation. That puts us in a position to evaluate the economic pressures for further rises in those rates......, the first question posed in this assignment, and the scope for overshooting (the second question), and then make some illustrative predictions of future interest rates in the euro area. We find a wide range of effects from rising interest rates, mostly small and mostly negative, focused on investment...... till the emerging European recovery is on a firmer basis and capable of overcoming increases in the cost of borrowing and shrinking fiscal space. There is also an implication that worries about rising/overshooting interest rates often reflect the fact that inflation risks are unequally distributed...

  4. Object interest in autism spectrum disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCDUFFIE, ANDREA S.; LIEBERMAN, REBECCA G.; YODER, PAUL J.

    2014-01-01

    A randomized control trial comparing two social communication treatments for children with autism spectrum disorder examined the effect of treatment on object interest. Thirty-two children, 18–60 months, were randomly assigned to the Picture Exchange Communication System (PECS) or Responsive Education and Prelinguistic Milieu Teaching (RPMT) condition. Assessment of object interest was conducted in an unstructured play session with different toys, activities, adult, and location than experienced in treatment. Results indicated children in the RPMT condition showed greater increases in object interest as compared to children in the PECS condition. Because child characteristics such as interest in objects may influence response to interventions using object play as contexts for treatment, it is important to improve our understanding of whether intervention can affect object interest. PMID:22133872

  5. Situational interest in engineering design activities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dohn, Niels Bonderup

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the present mixed-method study was to investigate task-based situational interest of sixth grade students (n=46), between 12 and 14 years old, during an eight-week engineering design programme in a Science & Technology-class. Students’ interests were investigated by means...... of a descriptive interpretative analysis of qualitative data from classroom observations and informal interviews. The analysis was complemented by a self-report survey to validate findings and determine prevalence. The analysis revealed four main sources of interest: designing inventions, trial......-and-error experimentation, achieved functionality of invention, and collaboration. These sources differ in terms of stimuli factors, such as novelty, autonomy (choice), social involvement, self-generation of interest, and task goal orientation. The study shows that design tasks stimulated interest, but only to the extent...

  6. Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractPeriodically integrated time series require a periodic differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. A non-periodic integrated time series needs the first-difference filter for similar reasons. When the changing seasonal fluctuations for the non-periodic integrated series can be

  7. Tracking Multiple Topics for Finding Interesting Articles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pon, R K; Cardenas, A F; Buttler, D J; Critchlow, T J

    2008-01-03

    We introduce multiple topic tracking (MTT) for iScore to better recommend news articles for users with multiple interests and to address changes in user interests over time. As an extension of the basic Rocchio algorithm, traditional topic detection and tracking, and single-pass clustering, MTT maintains multiple interest profiles to identify interesting articles for a specific user given user-feedback. Focusing on only interesting topics enables iScore to discard useless profiles to address changes in user interests and to achieve a balance between resource consumption and classification accuracy. iScore is able to achieve higher quality results than traditional methods such as the Rocchio algorithm. We identify several operating parameters that work well for MTT. Using the same parameters, we show that MTT alone yields high quality results for recommending interesting articles from several corpora. The inclusion of MTT improves iScore's performance by 25% in recommending news articles from the Yahoo! News RSS feeds and the TREC11 adaptive filter article collection. And through a small user study, we show that iScore can still perform well when only provided with little user feedback.

  8. Extracting factors for interest rate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molgedey, L.; Galic, E.

    2001-04-01

    Factor based interest rate models are widely used for risk managing purposes, for option pricing and for identifying and capturing yield curve anomalies. The movements of a term structure of interest rates are commonly assumed to be driven by a small number of orthogonal factors such as SHIFT, TWIST and BUTTERFLY (BOW). These factors are usually obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of historical bond prices (interest rates). Although PCA diagonalizes the covariance matrix of either the interest rates or the interest rate changes, it does not use both covariance matrices simultaneously. Furthermore higher linear and nonlinear correlations are neglected. These correlations as well as the mean reverting properties of the interest rates become crucial, if one is interested in a longer time horizon (infrequent hedging or trading). We will show that Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a more appropriate tool than PCA, since ICA uses the covariance matrix of the interest rates as well as the covariance matrix of the interest rate changes simultaneously. Additionally higher linear and nonlinear correlations may be easily incorporated. The resulting factors are uncorrelated for various time delays, approximately independent but nonorthogonal. This is in contrast to the factors obtained from the PCA, which are orthogonal and uncorrelated for identical times only. Although factors from the ICA are nonorthogonal, it is sufficient to consider only a few factors in order to explain most of the variation in the original data. Finally we will present examples that ICA based hedges outperforms PCA based hedges specifically if the portfolio is sensitive to structural changes of the yield curve.

  9. Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Markku Lanne

    2004-01-01

    According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent with the theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1952 Q1 – 2000 Q2) reasonably well. It is found that the thr...

  10. Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Dijk, Dick; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der

    2014-01-01

    We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii......) long-range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, relative...... to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long-maturity interest rates and for long-horizon forecasts....

  11. Access Answers: A Digest of LISTSERVS of Interest to Access Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Fred W.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a digest of LISTSERVS of interest to access services for the period of April to June 2011. It presents questions and answers from Interlibrary Loan (ILL) people, CIRCPLUS, and OFFCAMP.

  12. Liberia: National Security Interests in Transformational Development

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coleman, Carolyn I

    2008-01-01

    Liberia is of national security interest to the United States of America. Liberia's 14-year civil war ended in 2003, leaving the country with a collapsed government and failing economic, physical, and social infrastructures...

  13. Corporate Civil Disobedience in the Consumer Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Michael R.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Through catalytic issue management, corporations proactively seek to affect resolutions of issues in which they have some interest. Corporations now catalyze legal changes by purposely disobeying existing law, facing the associated consequences, and lobbying for desired changes. (Author)

  14. AgSat Areas of Interest

    Data.gov (United States)

    Farm Service Agency, Department of Agriculture — The AgSat Areas of Interest map contains area polygons where satellite imagery will be collected for the Farm Service Agency (FSA) to provide imagery coverage for...

  15. China's Growing Interest in Latin America

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dumbaugh, Kerry; Sullivan, Mark P

    2005-01-01

    .... Most analysts appear to agree that China's primary interest in the region is to gain greater access to needed resources -- such as oil, copper, and iron -- through increased trade and investment...

  16. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  17. On Recall Rate of Interest Point Detectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aanæs, Henrik; Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup

    2010-01-01

    in relation to the number of interest points, the recall rate as a function of camera position and light variation, and the sensitivity relative to model parameter change. The overall conclusion is that the Harris corner detector has a very high recall rate, but is sensitive to change in scale. The Hessian......In this paper we provide a method for evaluating interest point detectors independently of image descriptors. This is possible because we have compiled a unique data set enabling us to determine if common interest points are found. The data contains 60 scenes of a wide range of object types......, and for each scene we have 119 precisely located camera positions obtained from a camera mounted on an industrial robot arm. The scene surfaces have been scanned using structured light, providing precise 3D ground truth. We have investigated a number of the most popular interest point detectors. This is done...

  18. China’s interest rate liberalization reform

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Cindy

    2014-01-01

    This Asia Focus report explains the importance of interest rate liberalization in China, reviews historical progress and current efforts made to date, and discusses the potential impact on the banking sector.

  19. 36 CFR 13.116 - Permittee's interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM UNITS IN ALASKA Cabins General Provisions § 13.116 Permittee's interest. (a) A..., bartered, exchanged, assigned or included as a portion of any sale or exchange of other property by a...

  20. Stochastic interest rates model in compounding | Galadima ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stochastic interest rates model in compounding. ... in finance, real estate, insurance, accounting and other areas of business administration. The assumption that future rates are fixed and known with certainty at the beginning of an investment, ...

  1. Self-Interested Routing in Queueing Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Ali K. Parlaktürk; Sunil Kumar

    2004-01-01

    We study self-interested routing in stochastic networks, taking into account the discrete stochastic dynamics of such networks. We analyze a two-station multiclass queueing network in which the system manager chooses the scheduling rule and individual customers choose routes in a self-interested manner. We show that this network can be unstable in Nash equilibrium under some scheduling rules. We also design a nontrivial scheduling rule that negates the performance degradation resulting from s...

  2. Interest Groups and Trade Reform in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Sanchez-Mier

    2005-01-01

    Mexico experienced widespread economic reform in the last two decades. From being a protectionist economy with a policy of import substitution, it has turned into an export-oriented open economy. Why was protectionism a stable policy, and how was it overturned by a reform that went against entrenched interests? I apply a game theoretic model of political influence and economic reform to answer these questions using data to calculate the payoffs for the relevant interest groups. In the underly...

  3. Normative changes in interests from adolescence to adulthood: A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Kevin A; Briley, Daniel A; Wee, Colin J M; Rounds, James

    2018-04-01

    Vocational interests predict a variety of important outcomes and are among the most widely applied individual difference constructs in psychology and education. Despite over 90 years of research, little is known about the longitudinal development of interests. In this meta-analysis, the authors investigate normative changes in interests through adolescence and young adulthood. Effect sizes were aggregated from 49 longitudinal studies reporting mean-level changes in vocational interests, containing 98 total samples and 20,639 participants. Random effects meta-analytic regression models were used to assess age-related changes and gender differences across Holland's (1959, 1997) RIASEC categories and composite dimensions (people, things, data, and ideas). Results showed that mean-level interest scores generally increase with age, but effect sizes varied across interest categories and developmental periods. Adolescence was defined by two broad patterns of change: interest scores generally decreased during early adolescence, but then increased during late adolescence. During young adulthood, the most striking changes were found across the people and things orientations. Interests involving people tended to increase (artistic, social, and enterprising), whereas interests involving things either decreased (conventional) or remained constant (realistic and investigative). Gender differences associated with occupational stereotypes reached a lifetime peak during early adolescence, then tended to decrease in all subsequent age periods. Overall findings suggest there are normative changes in vocational interests from adolescence to adulthood, with important implications for developmental theories and the applied use of interests. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Estimating True Short-Term Consistency in Vocational Interests: A Longitudinal SEM Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudron, Jean-Philippe; Vautier, Stephane

    2007-01-01

    This study aimed at estimating the correlation between true scores (true consistency) of vocational interest over a short time span in a sample of 1089 adults. Participants were administered 54 items assessing vocational, family, and leisure interests twice over a 1-month period. Responses were analyzed with a multitrait (MT) model, which supposes…

  5. Volatility of the interest rate, debt and firm investment : Dutch evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bo, H; Sterken, E

    This paper analyzes the joint impact of the interest rate volatility and debt on firm investment. We derive an investment model taking account of the risk attitude of the owners of the firm. Using a panel of Dutch listed firms in the period of 1984-1995, we find that the cross-effect of the interest

  6. An empirical analysis of the German long-term interest rat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Butter, F.A.G.; Jansen, P.W.

    2004-01-01

    The short run and long run influences of the main determinants of the German long-term interest rate are estimated using quarterly data for the period 1982-2001. A major reason for the focus on the German interest rate is that this rate, and hence its determinants, will be dominant in explaining the

  7. Stochastic model of microcredit interest rate in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghita Bennouna

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Access to microcredit can have a beneficial effect on the well-being of low-income households excluded from the traditional banking system. It allows this population to receive affordable financial services to help them to meet their needs and to improve their living conditions. However to provide access to credit, microfinance institutions should ensure not only their social mission but also commercial and financial mission to enable the institution to perpetuate and become self-sufficient. To this end, MFIs (microfinance institutions must apply an interest rate that covers their costs and risk, while generating profits, Also microentrepreneurs need, to this end, to ensure the profitability of their activities. This paper presents the microfinance sector in Morocco. It focuses then on the interest rate applied by the Moroccan microfinance institutions; it provides also a comparative study between Morocco and other comparable countries in terms of interest rates charged to borrowers. Finally, this article presents a stochastic model of the interest rate in microcredit built in random loan repayment periods and on a real example of the program of loans of microfinance institution in Morocco

  8. Electromagnetic radiation of electrons in periodic structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potylitsyn, Alexander Petrovich

    2011-01-01

    Periodic magnetic structures (undulators) are widely used in accelerators to generate monochromatic undulator radiation (UR) in the range from far infrared to the hard X-ray region. Another periodic crystalline structure is used to produce quasimonochromatic polarized photon beams via the coherent bremsstrahlung mechanism (CBS). Due to such characteristics as monochromaticity, polarization and adjustability, these types of radiation is of large interest for applied and basic research of accelerator-emitted radiation. The book provides a detailed overview of the fundamental principles behind electromagnetic radiation emitted from accelerated charged particles (e.g. UR, CBS, radiation of fast electrons in Laser flash fields) as well as a unified description of relatively new radiation mechanisms which attracted great interest in recent years. This are the so-called polarization radiation excited by the Coulomb field of incident particles in periodic structures, parametric X-rays, resonant transition radiation and the Smith-Purcell effect. Characteristics of such radiation sources and perspectives of their usage are discussed. The recent experimental results as well as their interpretation are presented. (orig.)

  9. Interest organizations across economic sectors : explaining interest group density in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, Joost; Carroll, Brendan J.; Braun, Caelesta; Chalmers, Adam W.; Destrooper, Tine; Lowery, David; Otjes, Simon; Rasmussen, Anne

    2015-01-01

    The number of interest organizations (density) varies across policy domains, political issues and economic sectors. This shapes the nature and outcomes of interest representation. In this contribution, we explain the density of interest organizations per economic sector in the European Union on the

  10. Interest organizations across economic sectors: explaining interest group density in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, Joost; Carroll, Brendan; Braun, Caelesta; Chalmers, Adam; De Strooper, Tine; Lowery, David; Otjes, Simon; Rasmussen, Anne

    2015-01-01

    The number of interest organizations (density) varies across policy domains, political issues and economic sectors. This shapes the nature and outcomes of interest representation. In this contribution, we explain the density of interest organizations per economic sector in the European Union on the

  11. Making the news interesting : Understanding the relationship between familiarity and interest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, F. van der; Glassey, R.J.; Broek, E.L. van den

    2012-01-01

    News feeds are an important element of information encountering, feeding our (new) interests but also leading to a state of information overload. Current solutions often select information similar to the user's interests. However, long-term interest in one topic, and being highly familiar with that

  12. Periodic feedback stabilization for linear periodic evolution equations

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Gengsheng

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces a number of recent advances regarding periodic feedback stabilization for linear and time periodic evolution equations. First, it presents selected connections between linear quadratic optimal control theory and feedback stabilization theory for linear periodic evolution equations. Secondly, it identifies several criteria for the periodic feedback stabilization from the perspective of geometry, algebra and analyses respectively. Next, it describes several ways to design periodic feedback laws. Lastly, the book introduces readers to key methods for designing the control machines. Given its coverage and scope, it offers a helpful guide for graduate students and researchers in the areas of control theory and applied mathematics.

  13. Interest point detection for hyperspectral imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado-Muñoz, Leidy P.; Vélez-Reyes, Miguel; Roysam, Badrinath; Mukherjee, Amit

    2009-05-01

    This paper presents an algorithm for automated extraction of interest points (IPs)in multispectral and hyperspectral images. Interest points are features of the image that capture information from its neighbours and they are distinctive and stable under transformations such as translation and rotation. Interest-point operators for monochromatic images were proposed more than a decade ago and have since been studied extensively. IPs have been applied to diverse problems in computer vision, including image matching, recognition, registration, 3D reconstruction, change detection, and content-based image retrieval. Interest points are helpful in data reduction, and reduce the computational burden of various algorithms (like registration, object detection, 3D reconstruction etc) by replacing an exhaustive search over the entire image domain by a probe into a concise set of highly informative points. An interest operator seeks out points in an image that are structurally distinct, invariant to imaging conditions, stable under geometric transformation, and interpretable which are good candidates for interest points. Our approach extends ideas from Lowe's keypoint operator that uses local extrema of Difference of Gaussian (DoG) operator at multiple scales to detect interest point in gray level images. The proposed approach extends Lowe's method by direct conversion of scalar operations such as scale-space generation, and extreme point detection into operations that take the vector nature of the image into consideration. Experimental results with RGB and hyperspectral images which demonstrate the potential of the method for this application and the potential improvements of a fully vectorial approach over band-by-band approaches described in the literature.

  14. The redoubtable ecological periodic table

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological periodic tables are repositories of reliable information on quantitative, predictably recurring (periodic) habitat–community patterns and their uncertainty, scaling and transferability. Their reliability derives from their grounding in sound ecological principle...

  15. Interests and attitudes of engineering students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Brian

    2007-12-01

    Engineering programs have been less successful than other professions in achieving gender equity. Analyses of gender differences in the attitudes and interests of engineering students may help illuminate ways to combat the underrepresentation of women in engineering. This study examined data collected from 863 engineering students who attended 15 American universities from fall 2005 through spring 2006 using an online survey. The survey was designed to understand the backgrounds, academic preparation, motivation, interests, and attitudes of engineering students. To determine whether males and females received different academic preparation prior to entering engineering, the survey examined participants' mathematics, science, and technical coursework taken in high school. The questions probed students' comfort and interest level in mathematics, science, and technology/engineering and investigated student interest in the three fundamental engineering activities by asking 49 design, build, and analyze questions on topics covering a variety of engineering disciplines. A combination of question formats was used including pre-categorized demographic information, 5-point Likert scales, and open-ended responses. Gender similarities and differences were identified and their implications were considered for the recruitment and retention of engineers. Female engineering students in this study were equally or better prepared than males to major in engineering based on the number and types of science and mathematics classes taken in high school. However, statistically significant gender differences were found in the attitudes and interests of engineering students. The difference in the comfort level, interest in learning, being able to demonstrate, or in performing stem skills depended on the question topic rather than gender. The areas with the highest comfort and interest level were often different for females and males. Several topics and curriculum areas of high interest to

  16. Saviour siblings and collective family interests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor-Sands, Michelle

    2010-09-01

    In this article, I will explore the ethical concerns arising out of the use of preimplantation tissue typing (PTT) to create saviour siblings. There are two main ethical concerns about the welfare of the child to be born as a result of PTT. The first is whether the child to be born is treated as a commodity, as simply a means to save the life of his or her sibling. The second is whether the child to be born will be harmed as a result of PTT, either physically, psychologically or socially. These two ethical concerns reflect an individualistic approach to the welfare of the child, whose interests are treated as largely separate to the interests of other family members. I will argue that the welfare of the child born as a result of PTT should be conceived more broadly to include not only the child's individual interests, but also the collective interests the child shares with his or her family. I base this broader conception of welfare on the notion of human flourishing, which recognises that the welfare of a child is inextricably connected to the welfare of the intimate collective that is his or her family. The collective interests of intimate family members are particularly relevant in the context of PTT, as the members are engaged in a shared journey to save the life of an ill child.

  17. Conflict of interest: nurses at risk!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlen, Judith A

    2008-01-01

    Conflict of interest as it relates to healthcare is gaining increasing attention. Pharmaceutical companies and manufacturers that produce medical devices are coming under greater scrutiny because of the influence that their marketing practices may have on the patient management decisions made by healthcare professionals. The result is that healthcare agency administrators are developing conflict of interest policies and procedures for their professional employees. The driving force behind many of these policies is the need to maintain the trust of the public by refraining from questionable professional conduct. This article presents 2 hypothetical cases to provide nurses with an understanding of the concept of conflict of interest and the ethical considerations this issue raises, and describes the subtle and not-so-subtle influences on professional practice decisions. Recommendations are offered to help nurses avoid conflict of interest and preserve their professional integrity. It is incumbent upon nurses to become cognizant of the types of situations that may present a conflict of interest for them and to take the necessary steps to avoid such professional impropriety.

  18. Interest in science: a RIASEC-based analysis of students' interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierks, Pay O.; Höffler, Tim N.; Blankenburg, Janet S.; Peters, Heide; Parchmann, Ilka

    2016-01-01

    Considering the reported lack of interest in the STEM-domain and the consequential difficulties in recruiting talented and interested young academics, the development of effective enrichment measures is indispensable. This requires a precise picture of students' interests. The paper presents an approach to characterize interest profiles in explicitly science-related activities. Adapting Holland's RIASEC-model, an instrument was developed and tested which allows the description of interest in activities along Holland's dimensions (and a seventh dimension networking) within the confined science domain. The findings of a study with N = 247 students (age cohorts 12-19 years) uncovered interest differences for the environments school, enrichment, and (prospective) vocation. The mutual importance of the performed activity and the environment the activity is performed in is confirmed by a cross-classified model. Contrasting different subgroups revealed multiple results, e.g., girls showed more interest in artistic and social activities within the science domain. High achieving students showed more interest in science-related activities in all dimensions. In conclusion, using our adapted model, students' interest structure can be described in a differentiated manner. This could lay the foundation for further analyses of students' interest profiles and thereby contribute to future development of effective and congruent enrichment measures, thus enhancing interest in science.

  19. Self-interest without selfishness: the hedonic benefit of imposed self-interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Jonathan Z; Small, Deborah A

    2012-10-01

    Despite commonsense appeal, the link between self-interest and happiness remains elusive. One reason why individuals may not feel satisfied with self-interest is that they feel uneasy about sacrificing the needs of others for their own gain. We propose that externally imposing self-interest allows individuals to enjoy self-benefiting outcomes that are untainted by self-reproach for failing to help others. Study 1 demonstrated that an imposed self-interested option (a reward) leads to greater happiness than does choosing between a self-interested option and a prosocial option (a charity donation). Study 2 demonstrated that this effect is not driven by choice in general; rather, it is the specific trade-off between benefiting the self and benefiting others that inhibits happiness gained from self-interest. We theorize that the agency inherent in choice reduces the hedonic value of self-interest. Results of Study 3 find support for this mechanism.

  20. [Conflict of interests in clinical research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Elaine Maria de Oliveira; Tubino, Paulo

    2007-01-01

    In clinical research there is a real possibility to have some conflict of interests. Even for the researcher, the identification of these conflicts cannot be clear. There are many aspects to be considered, involving all participants of the process: the research subject, the researcher, the institution where the research is carried through, the sponsor, the ethics committees, the regulating agencies, the scientific community and the society. The conclusion is that conflicts of interests are common and inevitable in the academic field. The challenge is not to eradicate them, but to recognize them and to manage them properly. The only acceptable way to do this is to expose clearly the conflicts of interests and always to submit the clinical research projects to the ethics committees.

  1. Enhancing Students’ Interest through Mathematics Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmidar, A.; Darhim, D.; Dahlan, J. A.

    2017-09-01

    A number of previous researchers indicated that students’ mathematics interest still low because most of them have perceived that mathematics is very difficult, boring, not very practical, and have many abstract theorems that were very hard to understand. Another cause is the teaching and learning process used, which is mechanistic without considering students’ needs. Learning is more known as the process of transferring the knowledge to the students. Let students construct their own knowledge with the physical and mental reflection that is done by activity in the new knowledge. This article is literature study. The purpose of this article is to examine the Concrete-Pictorial-Abstract approach in theoretically to improve students’ mathematics interest. The conclusion of this literature study is the Concrete-Pictorial-Abstract approach can be used as an alternative to improve students’ mathematics interest.

  2. The implied volatility of U.S. interest rates: evidence from callable U. S. Treasuries

    OpenAIRE

    Robert R. Bliss; Ehud I. Ronn

    1995-01-01

    The prices for callable U.S. Treasury securities provide the sole source of evidence concerning the implied volatility of interest rates over the extended 1926-1994 period. This paper uses the prices of callable as well as non-callable Treasury instruments to estimate implied interest rate volatilities for the past sixty years, and, for the more recent 1989-1994 period, the cross-sectional term structures of implied interest rate volatility. We utilize these estimates to perform cross-section...

  3. Periodic waves in nonlinear metamaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Wen-Jun; Xiao, Jing-Hua; Yan, Jie-Yun; Tian, Bo

    2012-01-01

    Periodic waves are presented in this Letter. With symbolic computation, equations for monochromatic waves are studied, and analytic periodic waves are obtained. Factors affecting properties of periodic waves are analyzed. Nonlinear metamaterials, with the continuous distribution of the dielectric permittivity obtained, are different from the ones with the discrete distribution. -- Highlights: ► Equations for the monochromatic waves in transverse magnetic polarization have been studied. ► Analytic periodic waves for the equations have been obtained. ► Periodic waves are theoretically presented and studied in the nonlinear metamaterials.

  4. The natural gas industry and interest rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Y.J.

    1995-01-01

    In discussing the impact of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 636, the latest rule on the restructuring and deregulation of the US natural gas industry, the effect of interest rates on the success of the FERC policy is often overlooked. The thesis of this paper is that interest rates play an important role in integrating seasonal gas markets and in stimulating investment in storage infrastructure. We propose a model to analyse the equilibrium condition for an efficient gas market. Also analysed are the implications of pipeline rate design of FERC 636 for gas despatch decisions. (author)

  5. Vested interest and environmental risk communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Dominicis, Stefano; Crano, William D.; Ganucci Cancellieri, Uberta

    2014-01-01

    Vested interest theory (VIT), first investigated on environmental risk, suggests that the hedonic relevance of an attitude object moderates relations between attitudes, intentions, and responses to danger. Emphasizing vested interest may maximize impacts of risk communications. Study 1 (N=215...... method of developing effective risk announcements.......) assessed differences between inhabitants of two flood-risk areas in Italy on past experience, risk perceptions, concerns, attitudes, and behavioral intentions. Objectively, higher risk areas' residents reported more experience, and greater perceived risk and concern, while no preparedness differences were...

  6. Nonparametric Inference for Periodic Sequences

    KAUST Repository

    Sun, Ying

    2012-02-01

    This article proposes a nonparametric method for estimating the period and values of a periodic sequence when the data are evenly spaced in time. The period is estimated by a "leave-out-one-cycle" version of cross-validation (CV) and complements the periodogram, a widely used tool for period estimation. The CV method is computationally simple and implicitly penalizes multiples of the smallest period, leading to a "virtually" consistent estimator of integer periods. This estimator is investigated both theoretically and by simulation.We also propose a nonparametric test of the null hypothesis that the data have constantmean against the alternative that the sequence of means is periodic. Finally, our methodology is demonstrated on three well-known time series: the sunspots and lynx trapping data, and the El Niño series of sea surface temperatures. © 2012 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.

  7. Nonlinearities in Periodic Structures and Metamaterials

    CERN Document Server

    Denz, Cornelia; Kivshar, Yuri S

    2010-01-01

    Optical information processing of the future is associated with a new generation of compact nanoscale optical devices operating entirely with light. Moreover, adaptive features such as self-guiding, reconfiguration and switching become more and more important. Nonlinear devices offer an enormous potential for these applications. Consequently, innovative concepts for all-optical communication and information technologies based on nonlinear effects in photonic-crystal physics and nanoscale devices as metamaterials are of high interest. This book focuses on nonlinear optical phenomena in periodic media, such as photonic crystals, optically-induced, adaptive lattices, atomic lattices or metamaterials. The main purpose is to describe and overview new physical phenomena that result from the interplay between nonlinearities and structural periodicities and is a guide to actual and future developments for the expert reader in optical information processing, as well as in the physics of cold atoms in optical lattices.

  8. Periodically Driven Array of Single Rydberg Atoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basak, Sagarika; Chougale, Yashwant; Nath, Rejish

    2018-03-01

    An array of single Rydberg atoms driven by a temporally modulated atom-field detuning is studied. The periodic modulation effectively modifies the Rabi coupling, leading to unprecedented dynamics in the presence of Rydberg-Rydberg interactions, in particular, blockade enhancement, antiblockades, and state-dependent population trapping. Interestingly, the Schrieffer-Wolf transformation reveals a fundamental process in Rydberg gases, correlated Rabi coupling, which stems from the extended nature of the Rydberg-Rydberg interactions. Also, the correlated coupling provides an alternative depiction for the Rydberg blockade, exhibiting a nontrivial behavior in the presence of periodic modulation. The dynamical localization of a many-body configuration in a driven Rydberg lattice is discussed.

  9. Positive periodic solutions of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Wei; Chen Tianping

    2005-01-01

    In this Letter, for a general class of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems, we prove some new results on the existence of positive periodic solutions by Schauder's fixed point theorem. The global asymptotical stability of positive periodic solutions is discussed further, and conditions for exponential convergence are given. The conditions we obtained are weaker than the previously known ones and can be easily reduced to several special cases

  10. 78 FR 53433 - Annual Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the Federal Family Education...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-29

    ... Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the Federal Family Education Loan Program... Federal Student Aid announces the interest rates for the period July 1, 2013, through June 30, 2014, for..., 2010. The Chief Operating Officer takes this action to give notice of FFEL Program loan interest rates...

  11. 78 FR 44580 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-24

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by... interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period beginning...

  12. 78 FR 53431 - Annual Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the William D. Ford Federal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-29

    ... Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan... Operating Officer for Federal Student Aid announces the interest rates for the period July 1, 2013, through...(b)), provides formulas for determining the interest rates charged to borrowers for loans made under...

  13. 75 FR 41510 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-16

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by...). The interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period...

  14. 78 FR 5433 - Annual Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the Federal Family Education...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-25

    ... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Annual Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the... announces the interest rates for the period July 1, 2012, through June 30, 2013, for certain loans made... give notice of FFEL Program loan interest rates to the public. DATES: This notice is effective January...

  15. 78 FR 4427 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-22

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by... interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period beginning...

  16. 75 FR 5339 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-02

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by... interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period beginning...

  17. 77 FR 4359 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-27

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by...). The interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period...

  18. 76 FR 4127 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-24

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by... interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period beginning...

  19. 76 FR 47225 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-04

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by... interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period beginning...

  20. 78 FR 5431 - Annual Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the William D. Ford Federal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-25

    ... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Annual Notice of Interest Rates of Federal Student Loans Made Under the... amended, the Chief Operating Officer for Federal Student Aid announces the interest rates for the period... interest rates to the public. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ian Foss, U.S. Department of Education, 830...

  1. 77 FR 42754 - Mortgage and Loan Insurance Programs Under the National Housing Act-Debenture Interest Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-20

    ... Programs Under the National Housing Act--Debenture Interest Rates AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary... in the interest rates to be paid on debentures issued with respect to a loan or mortgage insured by... interest rate for debentures issued under section 221(g)(4) of the Act during the 6-month period beginning...

  2. Uncertainty analysis of hydro-meteorological forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Grythe, Karl Kristian; Gao, Yukun

    2010-01-01

    Masteroppgave i informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi 2010 – Universitetet i Agder, Grimstad Meteorological and hydrological forecasts are very important to human’s life which concerns agriculture, industry, transport, etc. The Nordic hydropower industry use and develop hydrological forecasting models to make predictions of rivers steam flow. The quantity of incoming stream flow is important to the electricity production because excessive water in reservoir will cause flood ...

  3. Analysis of Nigerian Hydrometeorological Data | Dike | Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Missing records were determined by the mass curve analysis for rainfall and regression analysis for runoff involving runoff data at neighbouring site. Tests on time homogeneity, showed that the annual rainfall records at Port Harcourt, Enugu and Lokoja were stationary and random, the annual runoff records of River Niger at ...

  4. Photolysis of Periodate and Periodic Acid in Aqueous Solution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehested, Knud; Kläning, U. K.

    1978-01-01

    The photochemistry of periodate and periodic acid in aqueous solution was studied (i) by quantum yield measurements at low light intensity (ii) by flash photolysis, and (iii) by photolysis of glassy samples at 77 K. The photochemical studies were supplemented with pulse radiolysis studies...... of aqueous periodate solutions and with kinetic studies using stopped-flow technique. In strongly alkaline solution the photodecomposition of periodate proceeds via formation of O– and IVI. At pH solution O3 P is formed in a small...

  5. Optical Frequency Mixing in Periodically-Patterned and in Quasi-Periodically-Patterned Nonlinear media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arie, A.

    1999-01-01

    Nonlinear frequency mixing processes, e.g. second harmonic generation, sum and difference frequency generation, etc., require matching of the phases of the interacting waves. The traditional method to achieve it is by selecting a specific angle of propagation in a birefringent nonlinear crystal. The main limitation of the birefringent phase matching method stems from the fact that for many interesting interactions, the phase matching condition cannot be satisfied in a specific crystal. This obstacle can be removed by the technique of quasi-phase-matching (QPM), where the nonlinear coefficient of the material is modulated at a fixed spatial frequency that equals the wave-vector phase mismatch between the interacting waves. An important development in recent years is the ability to periodically reverse the sign of the nonlinear coefficient in ferroelectric crystals by applying a high electric field through a periodic electrode. Some recent QPM interactions in periodically-poled KTP that were recently achieved at Tel-Aviv University include continuous-wave optical parametric oscillations, as well as generation of tunable mid-infrared radiation by difference frequency generation. Periodic patterning of the nonlinear coefficient enables to phase match only a single interaction. It would be advantageous to further extend the applications of this technique in order to simultaneously satisfy several interactions on a single crystal. This cannot be usually achieved in a periodic pattern, however more sophisticated quasi-periodic structures can be designed in this case. An interesting analogy can be drawn between artificially-made quasi-periodically-patterned nonlinear crystals and quasi-crystals found in nature, in rapidly-cooled metallic alloys

  6. Interest in PSI across Sixteen Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamal, P. A.

    1984-01-01

    To determine whether interest in the personalized system of instruction (PSI) in the behavioral sciences has waned since 1968, conference papers and poster presentations dealing with PSI were surveyed. The number of papers and posters devoted to PSI peaked in the years 1972-1979 and has since clearly declined. (RM)

  7. 37 CFR 251.31 - Financial interests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... any stocks, bonds, or other securities, or deriving any income from the prohibited entity. (c) “Direct or indirect financial interest” shall not include— (1) Owning shares in any stock or bond mutual fund or blind trust which might have an interest in a prohibited entity but whose decisions to invest or...

  8. 78 FR 49267 - Conflict of Interest Waiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-13

    ... FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION Conflict of Interest Waiver AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Notice of waiver of section 4(b) of the Communications Act of 1934. SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the Commission granted a waiver of the financial relationship prohibition contained in...

  9. 26 CFR 1.861-2 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... authority, other than the government itself, issuing instruments intended to circulate as currency. Such a... payable in the currency of a foreign country. Notwithstanding the provisions of § 1.863-6, interest to... issue of which the debt obligation is a part, is actually traded on one or more foreign securities...

  10. Self-interest, deregulation and trust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvör Nordal

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I will discuss Milton Friedman’s thesis that the social responsibilityof business is to maximize the shareholders’ profit. I examine the underlyingassumption of self-interest and argue, contrary to the neoliberal thesis ofderegulation, that the profit motive must be constrained by strong state regulations.Furthermore it facilitates keeping the division between business andgovernment intact. The financial crisis shows that the emphasis on a profitmotive without the external constraints of tight regulations has serious implicationsfor the trustworthiness of business. In the latter part of the paper I willdiscuss trust in relation to self-interest. The overemphasis on self-interest isparticularly unfortunate in connection with business, and not least the financialsector, as this institution is grounded in trust, without which it cannot survive.Seen from this angle, it can be claimed that a business model, celebratingprimarily self-interest, profit-motive and deregulation, is not going to be sustainablein the long run.http://dx.doi.org/10.5324/eip.v3i2.1719

  11. Profiling Religious Fundamentalism's Associations with Vocational Interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warlick, Craig A.; Ingram, Paul B.; Multon, Karen D.; Vuyk, M. Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Religion is a shaping force in the world today, increasingly expressed and integral to the flow and function of the workplace. The relationship between religious identity and work function is clearly present. However, no lines of research have explored how religion explains the variations in vocational interest, despite speculation that it does…

  12. Collaborative Filtering Recommendation on Users' Interest Sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijie Cheng

    Full Text Available As an important factor for improving recommendations, time information has been introduced to model users' dynamic preferences in many papers. However, the sequence of users' behaviour is rarely studied in recommender systems. Due to the users' unique behavior evolution patterns and personalized interest transitions among items, users' similarity in sequential dimension should be introduced to further distinguish users' preferences and interests. In this paper, we propose a new collaborative filtering recommendation method based on users' interest sequences (IS that rank users' ratings or other online behaviors according to the timestamps when they occurred. This method extracts the semantics hidden in the interest sequences by the length of users' longest common sub-IS (LCSIS and the count of users' total common sub-IS (ACSIS. Then, these semantics are utilized to obtain users' IS-based similarities and, further, to refine the similarities acquired from traditional collaborative filtering approaches. With these updated similarities, transition characteristics and dynamic evolution patterns of users' preferences are considered. Our new proposed method was compared with state-of-the-art time-aware collaborative filtering algorithms on datasets MovieLens, Flixster and Ciao. The experimental results validate that the proposed recommendation method is effective and outperforms several existing algorithms in the accuracy of rating prediction.

  13. Collaborative Filtering Recommendation on Users' Interest Sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Weijie; Yin, Guisheng; Dong, Yuxin; Dong, Hongbin; Zhang, Wansong

    2016-01-01

    As an important factor for improving recommendations, time information has been introduced to model users' dynamic preferences in many papers. However, the sequence of users' behaviour is rarely studied in recommender systems. Due to the users' unique behavior evolution patterns and personalized interest transitions among items, users' similarity in sequential dimension should be introduced to further distinguish users' preferences and interests. In this paper, we propose a new collaborative filtering recommendation method based on users' interest sequences (IS) that rank users' ratings or other online behaviors according to the timestamps when they occurred. This method extracts the semantics hidden in the interest sequences by the length of users' longest common sub-IS (LCSIS) and the count of users' total common sub-IS (ACSIS). Then, these semantics are utilized to obtain users' IS-based similarities and, further, to refine the similarities acquired from traditional collaborative filtering approaches. With these updated similarities, transition characteristics and dynamic evolution patterns of users' preferences are considered. Our new proposed method was compared with state-of-the-art time-aware collaborative filtering algorithms on datasets MovieLens, Flixster and Ciao. The experimental results validate that the proposed recommendation method is effective and outperforms several existing algorithms in the accuracy of rating prediction.

  14. Collaborative Filtering Recommendation on Users’ Interest Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Weijie; Yin, Guisheng; Dong, Yuxin; Dong, Hongbin; Zhang, Wansong

    2016-01-01

    As an important factor for improving recommendations, time information has been introduced to model users’ dynamic preferences in many papers. However, the sequence of users’ behaviour is rarely studied in recommender systems. Due to the users’ unique behavior evolution patterns and personalized interest transitions among items, users’ similarity in sequential dimension should be introduced to further distinguish users’ preferences and interests. In this paper, we propose a new collaborative filtering recommendation method based on users’ interest sequences (IS) that rank users’ ratings or other online behaviors according to the timestamps when they occurred. This method extracts the semantics hidden in the interest sequences by the length of users’ longest common sub-IS (LCSIS) and the count of users’ total common sub-IS (ACSIS). Then, these semantics are utilized to obtain users’ IS-based similarities and, further, to refine the similarities acquired from traditional collaborative filtering approaches. With these updated similarities, transition characteristics and dynamic evolution patterns of users’ preferences are considered. Our new proposed method was compared with state-of-the-art time-aware collaborative filtering algorithms on datasets MovieLens, Flixster and Ciao. The experimental results validate that the proposed recommendation method is effective and outperforms several existing algorithms in the accuracy of rating prediction. PMID:27195787

  15. Making Introductory Quantum Physics Understandable and Interesting

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 10; Issue 1. Making Introductory Quantum Physics Understandable and Interesting. Ranjana Y Abhang. Classroom Volume 10 Issue 1 January 2005 pp 63-73. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  16. 26 CFR 1.61-7 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... coupon bonds; interest on an open account, a promissory note, a mortgage, or a corporate bond or... disbursements method of accounting who owns United States savings bonds issued at a discount has an election as... which received or accrued (depending on the method of accounting used by the taxpayer). (d) Bonds sold...

  17. can Money Matter for Interest Rate Policy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brueckner, M.; Schabert, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper it is shown that money can matter for macroeconomic stability under interest rate policy when transactions frictions are non-negligible. We develop a sticky price model with a shopping time function, which induces the marginal utility of consumption to depend on the (predetermined)

  18. Robotic Cooperative Learning Promotes Student STEM Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosley, Pauline; Ardito, Gerald; Scollins, Lauren

    2016-01-01

    The principal purpose of this investigation is to study the effect of robotic cooperative learning methodologies on middle school students' critical thinking, and STEM interest. The semi-experimental inquiry consisted of ninety four six-grade students (forty nine students in the experimental group, forty five students in the control group), chosen…

  19. The improbability of Harris interest points

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loog, Marco; Lauze, Francois Bernard

    2010-01-01

    An elementary characterization of the map underlying Harris corners, also known as Harris interest points or key points, is provided. Two principal and basic assumptions made are: 1) Local image structure is captured in an uncommitted way, simply using weighted raw image values around every image...

  20. Interest Rates, Inflation, and the National Debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseltine, Robert W.

    1985-01-01

    Government must act more fiscally responsible. The government must put the brakes on an economy it has allowed to run free, and citizens must be willing to support a government that will act tough in the domestic market in order to lower interest rates, reduce inflationary pressure, and increase employment. (Author/RM)

  1. Exploring Stakeholder Values and Interests in Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Shannon K.

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing program evaluation education is how to bridge the need to train students in theoretical and methodological foundations, and also prepare them for the unpredictability and complex environment outside the classroom. This issue is particularly challenging in terms of understanding stakeholder values and interests. The…

  2. 31 CFR 595.307 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interest. 595.307 Section 595.307 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY TERRORISM SANCTIONS REGULATIONS General Definitions § 595.307...

  3. 31 CFR 594.306 - Interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interest. 594.306 Section 594.306 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY GLOBAL TERRORISM SANCTIONS REGULATIONS General Definitions...

  4. Neuro-oncology Thallium 201 interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guyot, M.; Latry, C.; Basse-Cathalinat, B.; Ducassou, D.; Guerin, J.; Maire, J.P.

    1994-01-01

    So and in spite of its histologic specificity absence, Tl 201 has an evident interest in neuro-oncology: for the low grade astrocytoma transformation diagnosis toward one higher grad; for the neoplasm residue and recidive diagnosis; and more generally as forecasted evolution element during the therapy. 2 figs., 4 tabs., 4 graphs

  5. Climate change and developing country interests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Chinowsky, Paul; Fant, Charles

    We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for...

  6. Commonalities between Adolescents' Work Values and Interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottinghaus, Patrick J.; Zytowski, Donald G.

    2006-01-01

    The authors examined the chief work values, assessed by Super's Work Values Inventory--Revised (D. G. Zytowski, 2004b), across interest groups organized by the 6 Holland theme scales of the Kuder Career Search (D. G. Zytowski, 2004a). Results strengthen vocational theory through clarification of gender differences and conceptual commonalities…

  7. The Improbability of Harris Interest Points

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loog, M.; Lauze, F.B.

    2010-01-01

    An elementary characterization of the map underlying Harris corners, also known as Harris interest points or key points, is provided. Two principal and basic assumptions made are: 1) Local image structure is captured in an uncommitted way, simply using weighted raw image values around every image

  8. 7 CFR 1421.6 - Beneficial interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... tendered to CCC as collateral for a marketing assistance loan or of the commodity that will be used to... interest in the commodity tendered as collateral for the loan, a person must: (1) Be the producer of the... whether the commodity will be tendered as collateral for a loan, when the loan will be repaid, or if the...

  9. 10 Rules for Avoiding Conflicts of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Anne H.; Eisenberg, Meyer

    2007-01-01

    Government investigations into alleged conflicts of interest in student-aid programs continue and now have widened to include study-abroad programs. It seems as if almost every day the news contains reports concerning possible questionable practices by colleges and universities. In this article, the authors discuss current scandals and possible…

  10. Teachers’ knowledge for teaching compound interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Pournara

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing acknowledgement that teachers’ knowledge for teaching mathematics is multifaceted and topic specific. Given the paucity of research on the teaching and learning of financial mathematics in general, little can be known about teachers’ knowledge for teaching compound interest. However, since financial mathematics is a component of the school curriculum in South Africa, and an important element of financial literacy more broadly, attention needs to be given to knowledge for teaching financial mathematics, and compound interest in particular. Drawing from a larger study in which the author taught a financial mathematics course to pre-service secondary mathematics teachers, a theoretical elaboration is provided of the underlying mathematics of compound interest, and connections with the world of banking. Based on findings from the study, two key student errors are identified: the over-generalisation of linear thinking in multiplicative scenarios, and the over-generalisation of reversible operations in percentage-change scenarios. Taken together, teachers’ knowledge of relevant mathematics, of the banking context and of learners’ conceptions will contribute to building a knowledge-base for teachers’ knowledge for teaching compound interest.

  11. Ordinal Position Research Related to Vocational Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandy, Gerald L.

    1974-01-01

    Birth order studies directly related to vocational interest were reviewed to discern support for certain theoretical susumptions: firstborns are more directing, controlling, and organizing than later borns and later borns are more sociable, empathic, and sympathetic than firstborns. The research was inconsistent, contradictory, and speculative.…

  12. Resonances in a periodically driven bosonic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quelle, Anton; Smith, Cristiane Morais

    2017-11-01

    Periodically driven systems are a common topic in modern physics. In optical lattices specifically, driving is at the origin of many interesting phenomena. However, energy is not conserved in driven systems, and under periodic driving, heating of a system is a real concern. In an effort to better understand this phenomenon, the heating of single-band systems has been studied, with a focus on disorder- and interaction-induced effects, such as many-body localization. Nevertheless, driven systems occur in a much wider context than this, leaving room for further research. Here, we fill this gap by studying a noninteracting model, characterized by discrete, periodically spaced energy levels that are unbounded from above. We couple these energy levels resonantly through a periodic drive, and discuss the heating dynamics of this system as a function of the driving protocol. In this way, we show that a combination of stimulated emission and absorption causes the presence of resonant stable states. This will serve to elucidate the conditions under which resonant driving causes heating in quantum systems.

  13. Resonances in a periodically driven bosonic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quelle, Anton; Smith, Cristiane Morais

    2017-11-01

    Periodically driven systems are a common topic in modern physics. In optical lattices specifically, driving is at the origin of many interesting phenomena. However, energy is not conserved in driven systems, and under periodic driving, heating of a system is a real concern. In an effort to better understand this phenomenon, the heating of single-band systems has been studied, with a focus on disorder- and interaction-induced effects, such as many-body localization. Nevertheless, driven systems occur in a much wider context than this, leaving room for further research. Here, we fill this gap by studying a noninteracting model, characterized by discrete, periodically spaced energy levels that are unbounded from above. We couple these energy levels resonantly through a periodic drive, and discuss the heating dynamics of this system as a function of the driving protocol. In this way, we show that a combination of stimulated emission and absorption causes the presence of resonant stable states. This will serve to elucidate the conditions under which resonant driving causes heating in quantum systems.

  14. From Periodic Properties to a Periodic Table Arrangement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besalú, Emili

    2013-01-01

    A periodic table is constructed from the consideration of periodic properties and the application of the principal components analysis technique. This procedure is useful for objects classification and data reduction and has been used in the field of chemistry for many applications, such as lanthanides, molecules, or conformers classification.…

  15. Periodic instantons and scattering amplitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khlebnikov, S.Yu.; Rubakov, V.A.; Tinyakov, P.G.

    1991-04-01

    We discuss the role of periodic euclidean solutions with two turning points and zero winding number (periodic instantons) in instanton induced processes below the sphaleron energy E sph . We find that the periodic instantons describe certain multiparticle scattering events leading to the transitions between topologically distinct vacua. Both the semiclassical amplitudes and inital and final states of these transitions are determined by the periodic instantons. Furthermore, the corresponding probabilities are maximal among all states of given energy. We show that at E ≤ E sph , the periodic instantons can be approximated by infinite chains of ordinary instantons and anti-instantons, and they naturally emerge as deformations of the zero energy instanton. In the framework of 2d abelian Higgs model and 4d electroweak theory we show, however, that there is not obvious relation between periodic instantons and two-particle scattering amplitudes. (orig.)

  16. The notion of general interest in the energy field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauby, P.

    2008-01-01

    The 1980's have been marked by a reversal of the reference paradigm concerning the manner in which energy issues are tackled: whilst during the whole period following the Second World War, primacy was placed on the pursuit of general interest in energy policies like in the industrial forms of organisation, the issues have tended to be tackled first of all in terms of 'markets', particularly in Europe and in developed countries. This article aims to raise once more and redefine energy issues, not using the opposition and exclusion between markets and general interest as a reference, but their relations and interactions as they are constructed, in particular within the framework of European integration processes. After giving a reminder of the essence of 'general interest', it will examine the energy issues in Europe and the construction of their relationship with the europeanization of public services. It will analyse the perspectives of a Community energy policy around three key questions: what internal market? What common policy? What public service obligations? (authors)

  17. Determinants of Interest Rates on Corporate Bonds of Mining Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranosz, Robert

    2017-09-01

    This article is devoted to the determinants of interest rates on corporate bonds of mining enterprises. The study includes a comparison between the cost of foreign capital as resulting from the issue of debt instruments in different sectors of the economy in relation to the mining industry. The article also depicts the correlation between the rating scores published by the three largest rating agencies: S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. The test was based on simple statistical methods. The analysis performed indicated that there is a dependency between the factors listed and the amount of interest rates on corporate bonds of global mining enterprises. Most significant factors include the rating level and the period for which the given series of bonds was issued. Additionally, it is not without significance whether the given bond has additional options. Pursuant to the obtained results, is should be recognized that in order to reduce the interest rate on bonds, mining enterprises should pay particular attention to the rating and attempt to include additional options in issued bonds. Such additional options may comprise, for example, an ability to exchange bonds to shares or raw materials.

  18. Microprocessor controlled digital period meter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keefe, D.J.; McDowell, W.P.; Rusch, G.K.

    1980-01-01

    A microprocessor controlled digital period meter has been developed and tested operationally on a reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The principle of operation is the mathematical relationship between asymptotic periods and pulse counting circuitry. This relationship is used to calculate and display the reactor periods over a range of /plus or minus/1 second to /plus or minus/999 seconds. The time interval required to update each measurement automatically varies from 8 seconds at the lowest counting rates to 2 seconds at higher counting rates. The paper will describe hardware and software design details and show the advantages of this type of Period Meter over the conventional circuits. 1 ref

  19. Designing Programs that Foster Sustained Interest in STEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuff, K. E.; Diaz, J. L.; Marks-Block, T. A.

    2008-12-01

    Current and possible future shortages of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) professionals in the US are again becoming hot topics of discussion amongst policy makers and educators alike. In an innovative approach to addressing these concerns, Tai et al. (2006) analyzed a large set of longitudinal study data to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of early STEM experiences on career choices. The results of their work indicate a statistically significant relationship between early expressed interest in STEM and inclination to enter STEM-related career paths. While this relationship is one that has resided at the core of most STEM educators' work for many years, the quantitative evidence provided by Tai et al. underscores the need to pay closer attention to students' STEM interest levels, particularly during periods when such interest is in jeopardy of becoming eroded. Recent work at UC Berkeley's Lawrence Hall of Science related to the development of STEM education models tailored to specifically meet the needs of students in disadvantaged Bay Area communities has resulted in the creation of the East Bay Academy for Young Scientists (EBAYS). EBAYS has been designed to stimulate and sustain interest in STEM by engaging participants in a combination of community-based environmental science research and hands-on content learning activities presented in after school and summer program settings. Given that its programming occurs in an environment where time and academic content constraints are not critical factors, EBAYS is able to provide opportunities for participants to experience STEM in a highly interactive, in-depth manner that differs significantly from the more depersonalized approaches commonly associated with more traditional educational settings. Founded on the research-based premise that when young people are engaged in learning activities that they perceive as relevant, they are more likely to take more initiative, remain attentive

  20. Periodic cluster mutations and related integrable maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fordy, Allan P

    2014-01-01

    One of the remarkable properties of cluster algebras is that any cluster, obtained from a sequence of mutations from an initial cluster, can be written as a Laurent polynomial in the initial cluster (known as the ‘Laurent phenomenon’). There are many nonlinear recurrences which exhibit the Laurent phenomenon and thus unexpectedly generate integer sequences. The mutation of a typical quiver will not generate a recurrence, but rather an erratic sequence of exchange relations. How do we ‘design’ a quiver which gives rise to a given recurrence? A key role is played by the concept of ‘periodic cluster mutation’, introduced in 2009. Each recurrence corresponds to a finite dimensional map. In the context of cluster mutations, these are called ‘cluster maps’. What properties do cluster maps have? Are they integrable in some standard sense?In this review I describe how integrable maps arise in the context of cluster mutations. I first explain the concept of ‘periodic cluster mutation’, giving some classification results. I then give a review of what is meant by an integrable map and apply this to cluster maps. Two classes of integrable maps are related to interesting monodromy problems, which generate interesting Poisson algebras of functions, used to prove complete integrability and a linearization. A connection to the Hirota–Miwa equation is explained. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Cluster algebras in mathematical physics’. (review)

  1. Conflict of interest and bias in publication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macklin, Ruth

    2016-01-01

    In his excellent article about commercial conflict of interest, Mark Wilson quotes Dennis Thompson, a political scientist who provided a searching analysis of the concept of conflict of interest (Col). Using Thompson's analysis, Wilson writes: "Determining whether factors such as ambition, the pursuit of fame and financial gain had biased a judgment was challenging. Motives are not always clear to either the conflicted party or to an outside observer." In this commentary, I aim to broaden the discussion beyond the narrowly commercial aspects of Col. I argue that bias can be introduced in major scientific journals by the editors' choices and policies. The context is a controversy that erupted in 2013 over the adequacy of informed consent in a clinical trial involving extremely premature infants. In this, as in Wilson's example, the players included the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), as well as the highest officials of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH).

  2. Unconscious conflict of interest: a Jewish perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, Azgad; Appelbaum, Paul S

    2011-07-01

    In contemporary medicine, it is not always obvious whether the acceptance of a benefit constitutes a conflict of interest. A particular area of controversy has been the impact of small gifts or other benefits from pharmaceutical companies on physicians' behaviour. Typically, in such cases, the gift is not an explicit reward for cooperation; the physician does not perceive the gift as an attempt to influence his or her judgement; and the reward is relatively minor. Under these circumstances, physicians are generally of the view that acceptance of gifts will not affect their behaviour, notwithstanding findings from social psychology and neuroscience that the impact of gifts is often unconscious, shaping action without a person's awareness. Here, we draw on traditional texts of Jewish law pertaining to the prohibition of taking a gift to illustrate recognition by the ancients of unconscious conflicts of interest, and their approach to dealing with the problem.

  3. The Energy Story. A Key Common Interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, Jacques

    2008-01-01

    Few countries confront the European Union with its own divisiveness and limitations as much as the Russian Federation does. Shared interests do not easily translate into harmonious relations. Russia and the European Union may depend on each other, but it proves extremely difficult to agree on the policies that serve these interests. Their asymmetric dependence generates uneasiness and discomfort rather than trust and security.This publication discusses the patterns of agreement and conflict, of continuities as well as the sudden twists that seem so characteristic of relations between 'Europe' and Russia. It focuses on the three issues that continue to be most prominent in these relations: security; energy; and human rights. It argues that, based on recent experience, 'more' may not necessarily be 'better' in the European Union's approach towards Russia. We argue for a Russia strategy that may seem less ambitious and comprehensive, but that may ultimately be more productive

  4. Freedom of research and public interest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, H.

    1988-01-01

    The author is a philosopher concerned with responsibility. He argues that the pretext of 'purely theoretical interest of science' is no longer valid for some modern key sciences and, on the contrary, science has entered the field of social action where each prepetrator vouch for his deeds. His critical opinion on nuclear energy is expressed not in the main text but in figures showing nuclear power plants and lengthly legends attached to them. He does not make the common distinction between science and technology. Thus nuclear energy is for him a piece of science done in the world-as-a-laboratory and is moreover a technology 'which presumably will never get rid of its experimental nature'. Therefore the Freedom of Research must be cancelled by the state in the public interest. Even more horrifying than nuclear energy is to the author however gene technology. (qui)

  5. Climate Change and National Self-Interest

    OpenAIRE

    Nordgren, Anders

    2016-01-01

    Mitigation of climate change is often described as a tragedy of the commons. According to this theoretical framework, it is collectively rational for present-generation countries to mitigate climate change, but not individually rational to do so. It is rather in national self-interest to ‘free-ride’ on the mitigation actions of other countries. In this paper, I discuss two arguments criticizing this view. According to these arguments, it is in most cases individually rational for present-gene...

  6. Summary of the Ahankashan Area of Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, Lawrence J.; Sutphin, David M.; Mars, John C.; Bogdanow, Anya K.

    2015-09-15

    This report summarizes and interprets results of the work in the Ahankashan Area of Interest in northwestern Afghanistan and four study areas—the Ahankashan Prospect Area, Syahsang-Kushkak, Taghab-Soni, and Zakak-e ‘Olya—delineated for their potential undiscovered mineral occurrences with specific emphasis on porphyry copper and related occurrence types. The Area of Interest is underlain by rocks of three different geologic domains that cross from east to west—the Band-e-Bayan Block/Central Pamirs Domain in the south, the Hindu Kush Domain in the Paropamisus Mountains, and the Afghan Turkestan Domain in the north. The domains are sutured remnants of Tethyan tectonic elements. Interpretation of the geologic maps indicates the presence of thrust faults, strike-slip faults, and granitic intrusions emplaced in ground prepared by faulting. Thrust faulting was followed by strike-slip faulting and then followed by magmatic intrusions. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer data were used to map minerals that have been altered by hydrothermal fluids typically associated with mineralization to delineate new potential occurrences of copper, gold, and silver. Propylitic-, argillic-, and phyllic-altered intrusive rocks are found in the area, as well as very minor amounts of hydrothermal silica-rich rocks. This area of interest is vastly underexplored and contains only seven known mineral occurrences, of which the Ahankashan copper (gold) skarn occurrence is the best known. Gold has been found in stream sediments near the Ahankashan skarn, in the Taghab-Soni study area, and possibly other parts of the Area of Interest, suggesting potential for at least small-scale placer occurrences.

  7. Do Firms Believe in Interest Rate Parity?

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew R. McBrady; Sandra Mortal; Michael J. Schill

    2010-01-01

    Using a broad sample of international corporate bond offerings, we provide evidence that corporate borrowers make opportunistic currency choices, in that they denominate the currency of their bonds in a manner that is inconsistent with a belief in either covered or uncovered interest rate parity. Using firm-level tests, we identify a number of characteristics of firms that engage in opportunistic behavior. We observe that large issuers located in developed markets with investment-grade rating...

  8. Protons, Aerospace, and Electronics: A National Interest

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaBel, Kenneth A.; Turflinger, Thomas L.

    2018-01-01

    The aerospace and semiconductor industries lost approx. 2000 hours annually of research access when IUCF closed. An ad hoc team between the U.S. government and industry was formed to evaluate other facility options. In this presentation, we will discuss: 1) Why aerospace, semiconductor manufacturers, and others are interested in proton facility access, as well as, 2) Some of the basics of a typical test for electronics, and 3) We"ll conclude with the brief current status on progress.

  9. Interest alignment rents and competitive advantage

    OpenAIRE

    M. ZOLLO; O. GOTTSCHALG

    2007-01-01

    This paper articulates a theory of the conditions under which the alignment between individual and collective interests generates sustainable competitive advantage. The theory is based on the influence of tacitness, context specificity, and causal ambiguity in the determinants of different types of motivation (extrinsic, normative intrinsic, and hedonic instinsic) under varying conditions of environmental dynamism. The analysis indicates the need to consider motivational processes as a comple...

  10. Public Interest in Accessing the INIS Collection

    OpenAIRE

    Savić, Dobrica (IAEA-NIS); GreyNet, Grey Literature Network Service

    2016-01-01

    Since its creation in 1970, the International Nuclear Information System (INIS) has collected and provided access to more than 3.8 million bibliographic references to publications, documents, technical reports, non-copyrighted documentation, and other grey literature, as well as over a million full texts. Overall, there are 800 GB of data in the INIS repository. Public interest in accessing this collection has been remarkable. This year alone, there were more than one million sessions and alm...

  11. The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigo Fuentes S; Fabián Gredig U.

    2008-01-01

    To estimate the neutral real interest rate for Chile, we use a variety of methods that can be classified into three categories: those derived from economic theory, the neutral rate implicit in financial assets, and statistical procedures using macroeconomic data. We conclude that the neutral rate is not constant over time, but it is closely related with—though not equivalent to—the potential GDP growth rate. The application of the different methods yields fairly similar results. The neutral r...

  12. Women in science: What keeps them interested?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orloff, Teresa Lynn

    The goal of this study was to investigate the importance of five factors on the interest and persistence of females in science. The five factors were: (1) science teachers; (2) parents; (3) one-on-one mentoring; (4) summer and extracurricular science programs; and (5) the media (television, movies, radio, computers). Data was collected through 201 questionnaires distributed equally to three groups of scientists: (1) science teachers; (2) research faculty; and (3) community professionals. Data analysis consisted of nonparametric statistical tests of significance to determine which of the five factors are the most influential. The results of the data analysis revealed the relative order of importance of the five factors on the interest and persistence of females in science as: (1) Science teachers and (2) parents. (3) Summer/extracurricular science programs. (4) Mentors. (5) Media. Three conclusions were derived from this study. First, females are influenced more by people than programs. Unlike males, females define themselves in relation to other people. The people who have the most influence in young females are those people such as teachers and parents who have the most contact with young girls. Females feel safe in such relationships and with a sense of trust comes a feeling of confidence to pursue desires and interests. Second, females place importance on lasting relationships. The relationships that have the most influence on young females are those where trust and confidence have a chance to form over time. Women in the position of long term relationships with young girls such as teachers and parents, need to become active mentors in helping girls choose careers. Third, elementary teachers are not influential towards the interest and persistence of females in science. Many elementary teachers are not comfortable teaching science and therefore spend little time teaching science to their classes. Stronger emphasis in teacher education programs on science and

  13. Public Interest, Procedural and Discursive Limitations

    OpenAIRE

    Xenia Negrea

    2015-01-01

    We discuss in this paper the ambiguity of the journalistic key-concept, "public interest". We present a few scientifically approaches and we analyse the very comfortable misunderstanding cultivated not only by the press, but also by politicians and other social actors. This theoretical concept is in relation with another key-concept, "the state secret" and this is the most frequent and abusive, answer that the politician use for reject the press questions. As case study, we analyse the relati...

  14. Annuities under random rates of interest - revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Burnecki, K.; Marciniuk, A.; Weron, A.

    2001-01-01

    In the article we consider accumulated values of annuities-certain with yearly payments with independent random interest rates. We focus on annuities with payments varying in arithmetic and geometric progression which are important basic varying annuities (see Kellison, 1991). They appear to be a generalization of the types studied recently by Zaks (2001). We derive, via recursive relationships, mean and variance formulae of the final values of the annuities. As a consequence, we obtain momen...

  15. Why Are Real Interest Rates So High?

    OpenAIRE

    Zvi Bodie; Alex Kane; Robert L. McDonald

    1983-01-01

    This paper applies the Capital Asset Pricing Model to help explain the anomalous behavior of real interest rates during the last several years. Specifically,we are able to show that the increased volatility of bond prices since the change in Federal Reserve operating procedure in October 1979 has substantially increased the required real risk premium on long term bonds. We also consider and reject the possibility that increased risk alone accounts for the recent increase in the short-term rea...

  16. Interest Free Banking in Nigeria - Welcome Islamic Banking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Interest Free Banking in Nigeria - Welcome Islamic Banking; Welcome Christian Banking. ... banks pay interest on deposits, and charge interest on loans and advances, ... However, the literature on interest rates, in relation to Commercial Bank ...

  17. How do we interest students in science?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, L.

    2016-02-01

    In today's world science literacy is now, more than ever, critical to society. However, today's technically savvy student tends to be bored by "cook-book" laboratory exercises and dated lecture style, which typifies the way that most science courses are taught. To enhance student interest in and understanding of the sciences, we developed two unique programs, in which teachers were provided with the tools and hands-on experience that enabled them to implement research- and inquiry-based projects with their students. The approach was based a framework that is student driven and enables active participation and innovation in the study of the environment. The framework involved selection of a theme and an activity that captured the interest of the participants, participant development of research or investigative questions based on the theme, experimentation to address the research questions, formulation of conclusions, and communication of these results. The projects consisted of two parts: a professional development institute for teachers and the classroom implementation of student research projects, both of which incorporated the framework process. The institutes focused on modeling the framework process, with teachers actively developing questions, researching the question, formulating results and conclusions. This method empowered teachers to be confident in the implementation of the process with their students. With support from project staff, teachers followed up by incorporating the method of teaching with their students. Evaluation results from the programs concluded that projects such as these can increase student interest in and understanding of the scientific process.

  18. Public healthcare interests require strict competition enforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loozen, Edith M H

    2015-07-01

    Several countries have introduced competition in their health systems in order to maintain the supply of high quality health care in a cost-effective manner. The introduction of competition triggers competition enforcement. Since healthcare is characterized by specific market failures, many favor healthcare-specific competition enforcement in order not only to account for the competition interest, but also for the healthcare interests. The question is whether healthcare systems based on competition can succeed when competition enforcement deviates from standard practice. This paper analyzes whether healthcare-specific competition enforcement is theoretically sound and practically effective. This is exemplified by the Dutch system that is based on regulated competition and thus crucially depends on getting competition enforcement right. Governments are responsible for correcting market failures. Markets are responsible for maximizing the public healthcare interests. By securing sufficient competitive pressure, competition enforcement makes sure they do. When interpreted according to welfare-economics, competition law takes into account both costs and benefits specific market behavior may have for healthcare. Competition agencies and judiciary are not legitimized to deviate from standard evidentiary requirements. Dutch case law shows that healthcare-specific enforcement favors the healthcare undertakings concerned, but to the detriment of public health care. Healthcare-specific competition enforcement is conceptually flawed and counterproductive. In order for healthcare systems based on competition to succeed, competition enforcement should be strict. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Final storage in Germany. Who is interested?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuehn, K.

    2002-01-01

    The final storage of radioactive waste and spent fuel in Germany - who, in Germany, has any interest in this subject, especially now that the new Atomic Energy Act has been adopted, and who is going to read this article? The author, Professor Klaus Kuehn, examines this question, analyzing in his contribution the current situation and the points of view of those who may be interested in this topic. In Prof. Kuehn's opinion, the addresses in particular are these: - the federal government, - the opposition in the federal parliament, - the federal states, - the Federal Ministry for the Environment, - the Federal Ministry for Research, - the Federal Ministry of Economics, - the Federal Office for Radiation Protection, - the operators of nuclear power plants, - the Working Group Elaborating Procedures for Selecting Repository Sites (AkEnd). Klaus Kuehn concludes that there is little interest at the present time in the subject of Final Storage in Germany, for reasons explained in detail which result both from the political constellation and from existing constraints. (orig.) [de

  20. CONFLICT OF INTERESTS IN TRANSFER PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Osvald

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the conditions of globalization all the companies try to find the effective ways of maximizing their profit. One of the instruments is the system of the transfer pricing that helps to optimize the costs and allocate effective the resources of the company. Transfer pricing has detrimental effect on the economy of countries, though the governments use the regulations to minimize this effect on their economy. In this case the conflict of interests appears. Paper deals with an analysis of the functions and reasons of the economic agents which use the transfer prices to demonstrate the conflict of interests in transfer pricing. The purpose of the study is the determination of the best ways to solve the conflict situations in the process of transfer pricing according to the economic interests of the agents: company and government and within the company: headquarters and subsidiaries. The main point of resolving the conflict between company and government is to make clear regulations of transfer pricing for enterprises and productive relations between company and government. The methods to resolve the conflict within the company are: clear guidelines, decentralization and motivation for stuff members.

  1. [Research interest by general practitioners: a survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, S; Zoller, M; Steurer, J

    2006-12-06

    For doing research on topics in primary care medicine participation of primary care physicians is necessary. Research in this field of medicine is only marginally established in Switzerland. In a postal survey we evaluate the general attitudes of physicians towards research in the field of primary care. In particular we were interested in their willingness to participate in research projects and the facilitating and impeding factors to take part in such projects. A purpose designed questionnaire was sent by post to 3044 primary care physicians in the central and eastern parts of Switzerland. The return rate was 52%. A majority of 94% of the responding physicians revealed interest in primary care research and 60% of all responders are willing to participate actively in such projects. They are prepared to spend about 15 min a day for data acquisition. Their willingness to participate depends on the conditions that, first, the research topic is relevant for daily practice and, second, boards odder Continuous Medical Education credits for time spent for research. Time constraints, additional administrative work and lack of relevance of research topics to daily practice are the main barriers. This survey demonstrates the general interest of primary care physicians to participate in relevant research projects. Therefore the structure to set up such research should be established.

  2. AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE FISHER EFFECT AND THE DYNAMIC RELATION BETWEEN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION IN SINGAPORE

    OpenAIRE

    KING FUEI LEE

    2009-01-01

    The Fisher effect postulated that real interest rate is constant, and that nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one together. This paper employs Johansen’s method to investigate for the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in the Singapore economy over the period 1976 to 2006, and finds evidence of a positive relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate while rejecting the notion of a full Fisher Effect. The dynamic relationship between nominal interest ...

  3. Forward Period Analysis Method of the Periodic Hamiltonian System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengfei Wang

    Full Text Available Using the forward period analysis (FPA, we obtain the period of a Morse oscillator and mathematical pendulum system, with the accuracy of 100 significant digits. From these results, the long-term [0, 1060] (time unit solutions, ranging from the Planck time to the age of the universe, are computed reliably and quickly with a parallel multiple-precision Taylor series (PMT scheme. The application of FPA to periodic systems can greatly reduce the computation time of long-term reliable simulations. This scheme provides an efficient way to generate reference solutions, against which long-term simulations using other schemes can be tested.

  4. Achievement Level and Sex Differences in Levels of Interests and the Interest-Educational Choice Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Neal

    1978-01-01

    The prediction of level of post-high-school educational choice was investigated using the theme scores of the Strong Vocational Interest Blank, sex and achievement level as predictors. Results indicated significant relationships between interests and educational choice, moderated in some cases by sex and achievement level. (Author)

  5. A Review of Conflict of Interest, Competing Interest, and Bias for Toxicologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    One of the issues often associated with scientific misconduct is conflict of interest (CoI). Although there is a lack of uniformity in the definition of CoI, many express concerns that competing interests may bias research methods and the interpretation of data and conclusions. ...

  6. Structure of Vocational Interests for Diverse Groups on the 2005 Strong Interest Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantamneni, Neeta; Fouad, Nadya

    2011-01-01

    This study was designed to examine the structure of vocational interests in a diverse sample of individuals who completed the 2005 revision of the Strong Interest Inventory. We examined the fit of three racial/ethnic groups (African American, Caucasian, and Latino/a), both genders, and three levels of professional status (GRS participant, student,…

  7. Detecting periodicities with Gaussian processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Durrande

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of detecting and quantifying the periodic component of a function given noise-corrupted observations of a limited number of input/output tuples. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression, which provides a flexible non-parametric framework for modelling periodic data. We introduce a novel decomposition of the covariance function as the sum of periodic and aperiodic kernels. This decomposition allows for the creation of sub-models which capture the periodic nature of the signal and its complement. To quantify the periodicity of the signal, we derive a periodicity ratio which reflects the uncertainty in the fitted sub-models. Although the method can be applied to many kernels, we give a special emphasis to the Matérn family, from the expression of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space inner product to the implementation of the associated periodic kernels in a Gaussian process toolkit. The proposed method is illustrated by considering the detection of periodically expressed genes in the arabidopsis genome.

  8. Scheduling periodic tasks with slack

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korst, J.H.M.; Aarts, E.H.L.; Lenstra, J.K.

    1997-01-01

    We consider the problem of nonpreemptively scheduling periodic tasks on a minimum number of identical processors, assuming that some slack is allowed in the time between successive executions of a periodic task. We prove that the problem is NP-hard in the strong sense. Necessary and sufficient

  9. Rationalization of Comet Halley's periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belton, Michael J. S.

    1990-01-01

    The sense of long axis orientation of Comet Halley during the Vega 1 encounter must be reversed from that deduced by Sagdeev et al. (1986) in order to harmonize the comet nucleus' Vega/Giotto-observed orientations with periodicities extracted from time-series brightness data. It is also demonstrated that Vega/Giotto observations can be satisfied by either a 2.2- or 3.7-day long-axis free precession period. A novel Fourier algorithm is used to reanalyze five independent data sets; strong evidence is adduced for periods harmonically related to a 7.4-day period. The preferred candidate models for Halley's nuclear rotation are characterized by a long-axis precession period of 3.7 days.

  10. Orbital periods of recurrent novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaefer, B.E.

    1990-01-01

    The class of recurrent novae (RN) with thermonuclear runaways contains only three systems (T Pyx, U Sco, and V394 CrA), for which no orbital periods are known. This paper presents a series of photometric observations where the orbital periods for all three systems are discovered. T Pyx is found to have sinusoidal modulation with an amplitude of 0.08 mag and a period of 2.3783 h (with a possible alias of 2.6403 h). U Sco is found to be an eclipsing system with an eclipse amplitude of roughly 1.5 mag and an orbital period of 1.2344 days. V394 CrA is found to have sinusoidal modulation with an amplitude of 0.5 mag and a period of 0.7577 days. Thus two out of three RN with thermonuclear runaways (or five out of six for all RN) have evolved companions. 16 refs

  11. Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Moya-Martínez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further, the link between movements in interest rates and industry equity returns is stronger at the coarsest scales. This finding is consistent with the idea that investors with long-term horizons are more likely to follow macroeconomic fundamentals, such as interest rates, in their investment decisions.

  12. Chaos to periodicity and periodicity to chaos by periodic perturbations in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Qianshu; Zhu Rui

    2004-01-01

    A three-variable model of the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction system subject to external sinusoidal perturbations is investigated by means of frequency spectrum analysis. In the period-1 window of the model, the transitions from periodicity to chaos are observed; in the chaotic window, the transitions from chaos to periodicity are found. The former might be understood by the circle map of two coupled oscillators, and the latter is partly explained by the resonance between the main frequency of the chaos and the frequency of the external periodic perturbations

  13. 76 FR 69126 - Graduated Retained Interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-08

    ... in trust or otherwise) includible in the grantor's gross estate if the grantor has retained the use..., or for a period that does not in fact end before the grantor's death. The final regulations will... trust corpus of a grantor retained annuity or unitrust trust (GRT) that is includible in the grantor's...

  14. 8 CFR 293.1 - Computation of interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... simple interest table in § 293.3 shall be utilized in the computation of interest under this part. ... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Computation of interest. 293.1 Section 293... INTEREST ON CASH RECEIVED TO SECURE IMMIGRATION BONDS § 293.1 Computation of interest. Interest shall be...

  15. Slow light enhancement and limitations in periodic media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grgic, Jure

    in the vicinity of the band edge. The minimum attainable group velocity will depend on the amount of imperfections. Since imperfections are inherited as part of any periodic structure it is necessary to take them into account when we are interested in slow light applications. Slowly propagating light gives rise......Properties of periodic dielectric media have attracted a big interest in the last two decades due to numerous exciting physical phenomena that cannot occur in homogeneous media. Due to their strong dispersive properties, the speed of light can be significantly slowed down in periodic structures....... When light velocity is much smaller than the speed of light in a vacuum, we describe this phenomena as slow light. In this thesis, we analyze important properties of slow light enhancement and limitations in periodic structures. We analyze quantitatively and qualitatively different technologies...

  16. 78 FR 1222 - Quarterly IRS Interest Rates Used in Calculating Interest on Overdue Accounts and Refunds on...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY U.S. Customs and Border Protection Quarterly IRS Interest Rates... the public of the quarterly Internal Revenue Service interest rates used to calculate interest on... beginning January 1, 2013, the interest rates for [[Page 1223

  17. Iraqi architecture in mogul period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Shatha

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Iraqi architecture have many periods passed through it until now, each on from these periods have it is architectural style, also through time these styles interacted among us, to creating kind of space forming, space relationships, and architectural elements (detailed treatments, the research problem being from the multi interacted architectural styles causing some of confused of general characteristic to every style, that we could distinguish by it. Research tries to study architecture style through Mogul Conquest to Baghdad. Aim of research follow main characteristic for this architectural style in the Mogul periods on the level of form, elements, and treatments. Research depending on descriptive and analytical all buildings belong to this period, so from analyzing there style by, general form for building, architectural elements, and it architectural treatment, therefore; repeating this procedures to every building we get some similarities, from these similarities we can making conclusion about pure characteristic of the style of these period. Other side, we also discover some Dissimilar in the building periods, these will lead research to make what interacting among styles in this period, after all that we can drew clearly main characteristic of Architectural Style for Mogul Conquest in Baghdad

  18. Whose interests and under whose control?: Interest convergence in science-focused school-community collaborations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Deb

    2018-03-01

    In this dialogue with Monica Ridgeway and Randy Yerrick's Whose banner are we waving?: exploring STEM partnerships for marginalized urban youth, I engage the critical race theory (CRT) tenet of interest convergence. I first expand Derrick Bell's (1980) initial statement of interest convergence with subsequent scholarly work in this area. I then explore ways CRT in general and interest convergence specifically have been applied in the field of education. Using this framing, I examine how interest convergence may be shed new insights into Monica Ridgeway and Randy Yerrick's study. For example, the tenet of interest convergence is used to frame why it was beneficial for the White artist, Jacob, and the Achievement Scholars to collaborate in the service-learning mural. Then the idea of interest divergence is brought into explore the ways in which Jacob benefitted from his participation in the service learning project while the Achievement Scholars were left with an unfinished project which they had to problem solve. To conclude, I provide future directions for the application of interest convergence and divergence to issues facing science education.

  19. Interest and attention in facial recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Melinda C R; Weaver, George E

    2003-04-01

    When applied to facial recognition, the levels of processing paradigm has yielded consistent results: faces processed in deep conditions are recognized better than faces processed under shallow conditions. However, there are multiple explanations for this occurrence. The own-race advantage in facial recognition, the tendency to recognize faces from one's own race better than faces from another race, is also consistently shown but not clearly explained. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that the levels of processing findings in facial recognition are a result of interest and attention, not differences in processing. This hypothesis was tested for both own and other faces with 105 Caucasian general psychology students. Levels of processing was manipulated as a between-subjects variable; students were asked to answer one of four types of study questions, e.g., "deep" or "shallow" processing questions, while viewing the study faces. Students' recognition of a subset of previously presented Caucasian and African-American faces from a test-set with an equal number of distractor faces was tested. They indicated their interest in and attention to the task. The typical levels of processing effect was observed with better recognition performance in the deep conditions than in the shallow conditions for both own- and other-race faces. The typical own-race advantage was also observed regardless of level of processing condition. For both own- and other-race faces, level of processing explained a significant portion of the recognition variance above and beyond what was explained by interest in and attention to the task.

  20. Antecedents and consequences of situational interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linnenbrink-Garcia, Lisa; Patall, Erika A; Messersmith, Emily E

    2013-12-01

    There is a growing body of research on situational interest (SI). Yet, we still know relatively little about how SI is supported in the classroom and the academic benefits of SI. The current study investigated (1) contextual antecedents of SI; (2) potential benefits of SI for academic outcomes; and (3) SI as a mediator of classroom practices to academic outcomes. Participants were 126 male and female adolescents (mean age = 14.6 years) who took part in a science course during a 3-week residential summer programme for talented adolescents. Participants completed self-report measures prior to the start of the summer programme and at the end of the programme. Summer programme instructors completed ratings of students' engagement during the programme. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to investigate the three study aims. After controlling for initial individual interest, perceived choice, instructor approachability, and course connections to real life were statistically significant predictors of SI during the summer programme, with varying associations observed based on the form of SI (triggered, maintained-feeling, and maintained-value). SI was positively related to individual interest and perceived competence in science at the end of the programme as well as teacher-rated engagement; SI also mediated the associations of classroom practices with these outcomes. Results suggest that classroom practices shape SI. In turn, SI supports motivation and engagement. Moreover, differentiated antecedents and outcomes of the three sub-components of SI were identified, highlighting the utility of this three-component approach for studying SI. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.