Temporal Coordination and Adaptation to Rate Change in Music Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Loehr, Janeen D.; Large, Edward W.; Palmer, Caroline

2011-01-01

People often coordinate their actions with sequences that exhibit temporal variability and unfold at multiple periodicities. We compared oscillator- and timekeeper-based accounts of temporal coordination by examining musicians' coordination of rhythmic musical sequences with a metronome that gradually changed rate at the end of a musical phrase…

Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bacaër, Nicolas

2009-10-01

This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

Changes in Scottish suicide rates during the Second World War.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Rob; Stark, Cameron; Humphry, Roger W; Selvaraj, Sivasubramaniam

2006-06-23

It is believed that total reported suicide rates tend to decrease during wartime. However, analysis of suicide rates during recent conflicts suggests a more complex picture, with increases in some age groups and changes in method choice. As few age and gender specific analyses of more distant conflicts have been conducted, it is not clear if these findings reflect a change in the epidemiology of suicide in wartime. Therefore, we examined suicide rates in Scotland before, during and after the Second World War to see if similar features were present. Data on deaths in Scotland recorded as suicide during the period 1931-1952, and population estimates for each of these years, were obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland. Using computer spreadsheets, suicide rates by gender, age and method were calculated. Forward stepwise logistic regression was used to assess the effect of gender, war and year on suicide rates using SAS V8.2. The all-age suicide rate among both men and women declined during the period studied. However, when this long-term decline is taken into account, the likelihood of suicide during the Second World War was higher than during both the pre-War and post-War periods. Suicide rates among men aged 15-24 years rose during the Second World War, peaking at 148 per million (41 deaths) during 1942 before declining to 39 per million (10 deaths) by 1945, while the rate among men aged 25-34 years reached 199 per million (43 deaths) during 1943 before falling to 66 per million (23 deaths) by 1946. This was accompanied by an increase in male suicides attributable to firearms and explosives during the War years which decreased following its conclusion. All age male and female suicide rates decreased in Scotland during World War II. However, once the general background decrease in suicide rates over the whole period is accounted for, the likelihood of suicide among the entire Scottish population during the Second World War was elevated. The overall

An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ananth, Cande V; Keyes, Katherine M; Hamilton, Ava; Gissler, Mika; Wu, Chunsen; Liu, Shiliang; Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Skjærven, Rolv; Williams, Michelle A; Tikkanen, Minna; Cnattingius, Sven

2015-01-01

Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries. Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries. Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (Prate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

Mortality of colorectal cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Shih-Yung; Huang, Jing-Yang; Jian, Zhi-Hong; Ho, Chien-Chang; Lung, Chia-Chi; Liaw, Yung-Po

2012-12-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cause of cancer death in developed countries among men (after lung cancer) and the third most common among women. This study thus examines the long-term trends of CRC mortality in Taiwan. CRC cases were collective between patients aged 30 years or older and younger than 85 years from the Taiwan death registries during 1971-2010. Standard descriptive techniques such as age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), aural percent change, and age-period-cohort analyses were used. The increase of percentage change by each age group in men was higher than in women. The ASMR of CRC increased 2-fold for men and almost 1.5-fold for women during the periods 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. For age-period-cohort analysis, the estimated mortality rate increased steadily with age in both sexes, and plateaued at 175.29 per 100,000 people for men and 128.14 per 100,000 for women in the 80- to 84-year-old group. Period effects were weak in both sexes. Cohort effects were strong. Between 30 and 59 years of age, the sex ratio showed that the female CRC mortality rate was higher than that of their male counterparts. Conversely, the mortality risk of CRC in men was higher than that in women when they were between 60 and 84 years old. The current findings showed a consistent increase in mortality from CRC over the years. Changes in the patient sex ratio indicated an important etiological role of sex hormones, especially in women aged 60 years or younger.

An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cande V Ananth

Full Text Available Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries.Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10, Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11, Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10, Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08, Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09, Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10, and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12 were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries.Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000, Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01 and Sweden (P<0.01.There is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2009-07-01

In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

Decomposing change in China's suicide rate, 1990-2010: ageing and urbanisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sha, Feng; Yip, Paul S F; Law, Yik Wa

2017-02-01

The study empirically quantifies the contributions of age composition and urbanisation to changes in the suicide rate in China over the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. A decompositional method was used to quantify the absolute and relative contributions of the age structure; the age-specific proportion of the urban population and the suicide rate of each age-specific, gender-specific and urban/rural cohort to the overall suicide rates in the two 10-year intervals. In the period between 1990 and 2000, a significant decline in the suicide rate among younger age groups (especially young rural women) was identified as the main driving force of the downward trend in the overall suicide rate. In 2000-2010, the rate of decline in suicide was predominantly explained by the drop in the suicide rate among all age groups in rural areas, with the exception of those aged over 80. The positive impact of urbanisation on the decline of the suicide rate has gradually diminished relative to the earlier period. As the positive impact of urbanisation on suicide rates is diminishing, further urbanisation and rapid change in society may induce stress and adjustment problems that are not conducive to the promotion of well-being. Furthermore, as China is facing the prospects of slower economic growth and a rapidly ageing population, suicides among older adults may also be elevated, particularly among those in rural areas with insufficient healthcare and social support. In order to maintain the decreasing trend of suicide in China, it is important for the Chinese government to pay more attention to the mental well-being of the population and to mitigate the stress of urban life and to provide timely support to older adults especially in rural areas. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

[Changes between pre-crisis and crisis period in socioeconomic inequalities in health and stimulant use in Netherlands].

Science.gov (United States)

Buggink, J W; de Goeij, M C M; Otten, F W J; Kunst, A

2016-01-01

International research suggests an impact of economic crises on population health, with different effects among different socioeconomic groups. Since the end of 2008 the Netherlands experienced a period of economic crisis. Our study explores how inequalities in perceived general and mental health, and alcohol and tobacco use changed after the recession started. Cross-sectional study using routinely collected data from surveys of the Dutch population. We used data from the Dutch Health Interview Surveys: 2006-2008 (pre-crisis period) and 2009-2013 (crisis period). Respondents aged 25-64 were divided into socioeconomic groups based on labour status, income level and income change. Inequalities in health and stimulant use among these socioeconomic groups were described by period and changes between the pre-crisis and crisis period were investigated using logistic regression models. Most inequalities did not change, with some exceptions. For perceived general health, inequalities between employed persons and persons not in the labour force were larger in the crisis-period (unfavourable trends for those not in the labour force). For smoking, inequalities between unemployed and employed persons were larger in the crisis period (decreasing smoking rates only for those employed), as did inequalities between persons with low and high income levels (decreasing smoking rates for those with higher income levels). Excessive drinking decreased among employed persons and persons with a decrease in income, while it remained stable among persons not in the labour force and among persons with an increase in income. The widening of some socioeconomic inequalities in health and stimulant use might suggest an enhanced vulnerability of lower socioeconomic groups to the post-2008 crisis.

Changes between pre-crisis and crisis period in socioeconomic inequalities in health and stimulant use in Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruggink, Jan-Willem; de Goeij, Moniek C M; Otten, Ferdy; Kunst, Anton E

2016-10-01

International research suggests an impact of economic crises on population health, with different effects among different socioeconomic groups. Since the end of 2008 the Netherlands experienced a period of economic crisis. Our study explores how inequalities in perceived general and mental health, and alcohol and tobacco use changed after the recession started. We used data from the Dutch Health Interview Surveys: 2006-2008 (pre-crisis period) and 2009-2013 (crisis period). Respondents aged 25-64 were divided into socioeconomic groups based on labour status, income level and income change. Inequalities in health and stimulant use among these socioeconomic groups were described by period and changes between the pre-crisis and crisis period were investigated using logistic regression models. Most inequalities did not change, with some exceptions. For perceived general health, inequalities between employed persons and persons not in the labour force were larger in the crisis period (unfavourable trends for those not in the labour force). For smoking, inequalities between unemployed and employed persons were larger in the crisis period (decreasing smoking rates only for those employed), as did inequalities between persons with low and high income levels (decreasing smoking rates for those with higher income levels). Excessive drinking decreased among employed persons and persons with a decrease in income, while it remained stable among persons not in the labour force and among persons with an increase in income. The widening of some socioeconomic inequalities in health and stimulant use might suggest an enhanced vulnerability of lower socioeconomic groups to the post-2008 crisis. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Adolescents alcohol-use and economic conditions: a multilevel analysis of data from a period with big economic changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Svensson, Mikael; Hagquist, Curt

2010-12-01

This paper examines how the unemployment rate is related to adolescent alcohol use and experience of binge drinking during a time period characterized by big societal changes. The paper uses repeated cross-sectional adolescent survey data from a Swedish region, collected in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1998, 2002 and 2005, and merges this with data on local unemployment rates for the same time periods. Individual level frequency of alcohol use as well as experience of binge drinking is connected to local level unemployment rate to estimate the relationship using multilevel modeling. The model includes municipality effects controlling for time-invariant differences between municipalities as well as year fixed effects controlling for municipality-invariant changes over time in alcohol use. The results show that the unemployment rate is negatively associated with adolescents' alcohol use and the experience of binge drinking. When the unemployment rate increases, more adolescents do not drink at all. Regular drinking (twice per month or more) is, on the other hand, unrelated to the unemployment rate. Examining gender-differences in the relationship, it is shown that the results are driven by behavior in girls, whereas drinking among boys does not show any significant relationship with changes in the unemployment rate.

Gully incision rates on the bedrock of a large dip-slope landslide revealed by multi-period LiDAR DEMs

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Y. C.; Hsieh, Y. C.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in airborne laser scanning (ALS) technology have provided a great opportunity for characterizing surface erosion through developing improved methods in multi-period DEM differencing and geomorphometry. This study uses three periods of ALS digital elevation model (DEM) data to analyze the short-term erosional features of the Tsaoling landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Two methods for calculating the bedrock incision rate, the equal-interval cross section selection method and the continuous swath profiles selection method, were used in the study after nearly ten years of gully incision following the earthquake-triggered dip-slope landslide. Multi-temporal gully incision rates were obtained using the continuous swath profiles selection method, which is considered a practical and convenient approach in terrain change studies. After error estimation and comparison of the multi-period ALS DEMs, the terrain change in different periods can be directly calculated, reducing time-consuming fieldwork such as installation of erosion pins and measurement of topographic cross sections on site. In this study, the gully bedrock incision rates ranged between 0.23 and 3.98 m/year, remarkably higher than the typical results from the previous studies. By comparing the DEM data, aerial photos, and precipitation records of this area, the effects of erosion could be observed from the retreat of the Chunqiu Cliff outline during August 2011 to September 2012. It was inferred that the change in the topographic elevation during 2011-2012 was mainly due to the torrential rain brought by Typhoon Soula, which occurred on 30 July 2012. The local gully incision rate in the lower part of the landslide surface was remarkably faster than that of the other regions, suggesting that the fast incision of the toe area possibly contributes to the occurrence of repeated landslides in the Tsaoling area.

Pass-through of Change in Policy Interest Rate to Market Rates

OpenAIRE

M. Idrees Khawaja; Sajawal Khan

2008-01-01

This paper examines the pass through of the change in policy interest rate of the central bank of Pakistan to market interest rates. The market rates examined include KIBOR, six month deposit rate and weighted average lending rate. More or less complete pass-through of the change in policy rate to KIBOR is observed within one month. However, the magnitude of change in policy rate to deposit and lending rate is not only low but is slow as well. The pass-through to the weighted average lending ...

Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

2016-01-01

Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Changes in Body Compositions and Basal Metabolic Rates during Treatment of Graves’ Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min Joo Kim

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. Because thyroid hormone is an important determinant of body weight and basal metabolic rate, we investigated the changes in the basal metabolic rate and body composition sequentially after treatment for Graves’ disease. Methods. A prospective cohort study was performed with six women newly diagnosed with Graves’ disease. During a 52-week treatment of methimazole, body composition, resting respiratory expenditure (REE, and handgrip strength were measured consecutively. Results. After methimazole treatment, body weight was initially increased (0–8 weeks, subsequently plateaued (8–24 weeks, and gradually decreased in the later period (24–52 weeks despite the decreased food intake. The measured REE was 40% higher than the predicted REE at baseline, and it gradually decreased after treatment. REE positively correlated with thyroid hormone levels, peripheral deiodinase activity, and thyroid’s secretory capacity. Body compositional analyses showed that the fat mass increased during an earlier period (4–12 weeks, while the lean mass increased significantly during the later period (26–52 weeks. Consistent with the lean mass changes, muscle strength also significantly increased during the later period. Conclusions. Treatment of Graves’ disease increased body weight and fat mass transiently with decreased REE. However, long-term compositional changes moved in a beneficial direction increasing lean mass and reinforcing muscle strength, following decreasing fat percentages.

Changes in Yearly Birth Prevalence Rates of Children with Down Syndrome in the Period 1986-2007 in the Netherlands

Science.gov (United States)

de Graaf, G.; Haveman, M.; Hochstenbach, R.; Engelen, J.; Gerssen-Schoorl, K.; Poddighe, P.; Smeets, D.; van Hove, G.

2011-01-01

Background: The Netherlands are lacking reliable national empirical data in relation to the development of birth prevalence of Down syndrome. Our study aims at assessing valid national live birth prevalence rates for the period 1986-2007. Method: On the basis of the annual child/adult ratio of Down syndrome diagnoses in five out of the eight Dutch…

77 FR 36585 - Postal Rate Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-19

... Service notice of rate and changes affecting Inbound Air Parcel Post at Universal Postal Union (UPU) rates... United States Postal Service of Filing Changes in Rates Not of General Applicability and Application for... the Postal Service's explanation of Inbound Air Parcel Post (at UPU Rates) provided in the initial...

Model-supported estimation of mortality rates in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L. larvae: the varying impact of 'critical periods'

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hinrichsen Hans-Harald

2001-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Changes in the survival-rate during the larval phase may strongly influence the recruitment level in marine fish species. During the larval phase different 'critical periods' are discussed, e.g. the hatching period and the first-feeding period. No such information was available for the Baltic cod stock, a commercially important stock showing reproduction failure during the last years. We calculated field-based mortality rates for larval Baltic cod during these phases using basin-wide abundance estimates from two consecutive surveys. Survey information was corrected by three dimensional hydrodynamic model runs. Results The corrections applied for transport were of variable impact, depending on the prevailing circulation patterns. Especially at high wind forcing scenarios, abundance estimates have the potential to be biased without accounting for transport processes. In May 1988 mortality between hatch and first feeding amounted to approximately 20% per day. Mortality rates during the onset of feeding were considerably lower with only 7% per day. In August 1991 the situation was vice versa: Extremely low mortality rates of 0.08% per day were calculated between hatch and first feeding, while the period between the onset of feeding to the state of an established feeder was more critical with mortality rates of 22% per day. Conclusions Mortality rates during the different proposed 'critical periods' were found to be highly variable. Survival rates of Baltic cod are not only influenced by a single 'critical period', but can be limited at different points during the larval phase, depending on several biotic and abiotic factors.

Features of Heart Rate Variability Capture Regulatory Changes During Kangaroo Care in Preterm Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kommers, Deedee R; Joshi, Rohan; van Pul, Carola; Atallah, Louis; Feijs, Loe; Oei, Guid; Bambang Oetomo, Sidarto; Andriessen, Peter

2017-03-01

To determine whether heart rate variability (HRV) can serve as a surrogate measure to track regulatory changes during kangaroo care, a period of parental coregulation distinct from regulation within the incubator. Nurses annotated the starting and ending times of kangaroo care for 3 months. The pre-kangaroo care, during-kangaroo care, and post-kangaroo care data were retrieved in infants with at least 10 accurately annotated kangaroo care sessions. Eight HRV features (5 in the time domain and 3 in the frequency domain) were used to visually and statistically compare the pre-kangaroo care and during-kangaroo care periods. Two of these features, capturing the percentage of heart rate decelerations and the extent of heart rate decelerations, were newly developed for preterm infants. A total of 191 kangaroo care sessions were investigated in 11 preterm infants. Despite clinically irrelevant changes in vital signs, 6 of the 8 HRV features (SD of normal-to-normal intervals, root mean square of the SD, percentage of consecutive normal-to-normal intervals that differ by >50 ms, SD of heart rate decelerations, high-frequency power, and low-frequency/high-frequency ratio) showed a visible and statistically significant difference (P heart rate decelerations. HRV-based features may be clinically useful for capturing the dynamic changes in autonomic regulation in response to kangaroo care and other changes in environment and state. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952-2006: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Seoane-Mato, Daniel; Aragonés, Nuria; Ferreras, Eva; García-Pérez, Javier; Cervantes-Amat, Marta; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2014-04-11

Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950-1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study.

On utilization bounds for a periodic resource under rate monotonic scheduling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Renssen, van A.M.; Geuns, S.J.; Hausmans, J.P.H.M.; Poncin, W.; Bril, R.J.

2009-01-01

This paper revisits utilization bounds for a periodic resource under the rate monotonic (RM) scheduling algorithm. We show that the existing utilization bound, as presented in [8, 9], is optimistic. We subsequently show that by viewing the unavailability of the periodic resource as a deferrable

Paraquat prohibition and change in the suicide rate and methods in South Korea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Woojae Myung

Full Text Available The annual suicide rate in South Korea is the highest among the developed countries. Paraquat is a highly lethal herbicide, commonly used in South Korea as a means for suicide. We have studied the effect of the 2011 paraquat prohibition on the national suicide rate and method of suicide in South Korea. We obtained the monthly suicide rate from 2005 to 2013 in South Korea. In our analyses, we adjusted for the effects of celebrity suicides, and economic, meteorological, and seasonal factors on suicide rate. We employed change point analysis to determine the effect of paraquat prohibition on suicide rate over time, and the results were verified by structural change analysis, an alternative statistical method. After the paraquat prohibition period in South Korea, there was a significant reduction in the total suicide rate and suicide rate by poisoning with herbicides or fungicides in all age groups and in both genders. The estimated suicide rates during this period decreased by 10.0% and 46.1% for total suicides and suicides by poisoning of herbicides or fungicides, respectively. In addition, method substitution effect of paraquat prohibition was found in suicide by poisoning by carbon monoxide, which did not exceed the reduction in the suicide rate of poisoning with herbicides or fungicides. In South Korea, paraquat prohibition led to a lower rate of suicide by paraquat poisoning, as well as a reduction in the overall suicide rate. Paraquat prohibition should be considered as a national suicide prevention strategy in developing and developed countries alongside careful observation for method substitution effects.

Paraquat prohibition and change in the suicide rate and methods in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Myung, Woojae; Lee, Geung-Hee; Won, Hong-Hee; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Nyer, Maren; Kim, Doh Kwan; Heo, Jung-Yoon; Jeon, Hong Jin

2015-01-01

The annual suicide rate in South Korea is the highest among the developed countries. Paraquat is a highly lethal herbicide, commonly used in South Korea as a means for suicide. We have studied the effect of the 2011 paraquat prohibition on the national suicide rate and method of suicide in South Korea. We obtained the monthly suicide rate from 2005 to 2013 in South Korea. In our analyses, we adjusted for the effects of celebrity suicides, and economic, meteorological, and seasonal factors on suicide rate. We employed change point analysis to determine the effect of paraquat prohibition on suicide rate over time, and the results were verified by structural change analysis, an alternative statistical method. After the paraquat prohibition period in South Korea, there was a significant reduction in the total suicide rate and suicide rate by poisoning with herbicides or fungicides in all age groups and in both genders. The estimated suicide rates during this period decreased by 10.0% and 46.1% for total suicides and suicides by poisoning of herbicides or fungicides, respectively. In addition, method substitution effect of paraquat prohibition was found in suicide by poisoning by carbon monoxide, which did not exceed the reduction in the suicide rate of poisoning with herbicides or fungicides. In South Korea, paraquat prohibition led to a lower rate of suicide by paraquat poisoning, as well as a reduction in the overall suicide rate. Paraquat prohibition should be considered as a national suicide prevention strategy in developing and developed countries alongside careful observation for method substitution effects.

Changes in plant availability of Pu-238 during a nine year experimental period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eriksson, Aa.

1985-01-01

A short description is given of the changes observed in the plant availability of Pu-238 in eight soils during a nine year experimental period. It was found that during the first four-year period with clover as test crop, the plant uptake of Pu-238 was reduced with availability half lives ranging from 0.8 to 2.0 years. The reduction rate seemed proportional to the initial uptake levels, except for lime rich clay soils, where the reduction rate was high regardless of the uptake level. In 1980 when the test crop clover was replaced by spring wheat, the necessary soil management operations caused intenser aeration and drying in one block of the replicates. As a consequence, the Pu-uptake in that block became considerably higher than in the others. This event can be interpreted as an indirect evidence for the reversibility of that process in soil, which has caused the reduced plant availability of Pu-238

Changing Survival Rate of Infants Born Before 26 Gestational Weeks

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Asad; Abdellatif, Mohamed; Sharef, Sharef W.; Fazalullah, Muhammad; Al-Senaidi, Khalfan; Khan, Ashfaq A.; Ahmad, Masood; Kripail, Mathew; Abuanza, Mazen; Bataclan, Flordeliza

2015-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the changing survival rate and morbidities among infants born before 26 gestational weeks at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH) in Muscat, Oman. Methods: This retrospective study assessed the mortality and morbidities of all premature infants born alive at 23–26 gestational weeks at SQUH between June 2006 and May 2013. Infants referred to SQUH within 72 hours of birth during this period were also included. Electronic records were reviewed for gestational age, gender, birth weight, maternal age, mode and place of delivery, antenatal steroid administration, morbidity and outcome. The survival rate was calculated and findings were then compared with those of a previous study conducted in the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. Rates of major morbidities were also calculated. Results: A total of 81 infants between 23–26 gestational weeks were admitted to the neonatal unit during the study period. Of these, 58.0% were male and 42.0% were female. Median gestational age was 25 weeks and mean birth weight was 770 ± 150 g. Of the 81 infants, 49 survived. The overall survival rate was 60.5% compared to 41% reported in the previous study. Respiratory distress syndrome (100.0%), retinopathy of prematurity (51.9%), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (34.6%), intraventricular haemorrhage (30.9%) and patent ductus arteriosus (28.4%) were the most common morbidities. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of infants between 23–26 gestational weeks during the study period had significantly improved in comparison to that found at the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. There is a need for the long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature infants. PMID:26357555

The Impact of Changes to the Unemployment Rate on Australian Disability Income Insurance Claim Incidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaurav Khemka

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We explore the extent to which claim incidence in Disability Income Insurance (DII is affected by changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Using data from 1986 to 2001, we fit a hurdle model to explore the presence and magnitude of the effect of changes in unemployment rate on the incidence of DII claims, controlling for policy holder characteristics and seasonality. We find a clear positive association between unemployment and claim incidence, and we explore this further by gender, age, deferment period, and occupation. A multinomial logistic regression model is fitted to cause of claim data in order to explore the relationship further, and it is shown that the proportion of claims due to accident increases markedly with rising unemployment. The results suggest that during periods of rising unemployment, insurers may face increased claims from policy holders with shorter deferment periods for white-collar workers and for medium and heavy manual workers. Our findings indicate that moral hazard may have a material impact on DII claim incidence and insurer business in periods of declining economic conditions.

On changing points of mean residual life and failure rate function for some generalized Weibull distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, M.; Goh, T.N.; Tang, Y.

2004-01-01

The failure rate function and mean residual life function are two important characteristics in reliability analysis. Although many papers have studied distributions with bathtub-shaped failure rate and their properties, few have focused on the underlying associations between the mean residual life and failure rate function of these distributions, especially with respect to their changing points. It is known that the change point for mean residual life can be much earlier than that of failure rate function. In fact, the failure rate function should be flat for a long period of time for a distribution to be useful in practice. When the difference between the change points is large, the flat portion tends to be longer. This paper investigates the change points and focuses on the difference of the changing points. The exponentiated Weibull, a modified Weibull, and an extended Weibull distribution, all with bathtub-shaped failure rate function will be used. Some other issues related to the flatness of the bathtub curve are discussed

Fine structure of the absorbed dose rate monitored in Zagreb, Croatia, in the period 1985-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Babić, D; Senčar, J; Petrinec, B; Marović, G; Bituh, T; Skoko, B

2013-04-01

We report on the fine structure of the absorbed dose rate D which was measured and recorded on a daily basis at the Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health in Zagreb, Croatia, throughout the period 1985-2011. After the Chernobyl accident, D increased steeply by a factor of 3.5, but this is the only prominent feature in the D versus time (t) curve. In the absence of accidental conditions, the D(t) is flat and amounts to 30-35 pGy/s. Despite the apparent plainness of D(t), its Fourier transform reveals several periodic modulations hidden in the noise. Some of the corresponding periods (6 and 12 months) can be related to seasonal atmospheric changes but this is not the case with the other periods identified (9.3, 13.7, 15.7, 20, 31, and 39 months). These are found to agree well with literature data on periodicities in solar activity, which implies that they are most probably linked to variations in the atmospheric production of (7)Be by cosmic rays. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 75562 - Notice of a Change in Status of an Extended Benefit (EB) Period for Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-02

... Extended Benefit (EB) Period for Pennsylvania AGENCY: Employment and Training Administration, Labor. ACTION... Pennsylvania. The following changes have occurred since the publication of the last notice regarding the State... three month average, seasonally- adjusted total unemployment rate for Pennsylvania rose to exceed the 8...

Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Moya-Martínez

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further, the link between movements in interest rates and industry equity returns is stronger at the coarsest scales. This finding is consistent with the idea that investors with long-term horizons are more likely to follow macroeconomic fundamentals, such as interest rates, in their investment decisions.

Features of heart rate variability capture regulatory changes during kangaroo care in preterm infants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kommers, D.R.; Joshi, R.; van Pul, C.; Atallah, N.L.; Feijs, L.M.G.; Oei, S.G.; Bambang Oetomo, S.; Andriessen, P.

2017-01-01

Objective: To determine whether heart rate variability (HRV) can serve as a surrogate measure to track regulatory changes during kangaroo care, a period of parental coregulation distinct from regulation within the incubator. Study design: Nurses annotated the starting and ending times of kangaroo

Linking Changes in Contraceptive Use to Declines in Teen Pregnancy Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Manlove

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Using a unique microsimulation tool, Teen FamilyScape, the present study explores how changes in the mix of contraceptive methods used by teens contributed to the decline in the U.S. teen pregnancy rate between 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that changes in contraceptive use contributed to approximately half of the decline in the teen pregnancy rate during this time period (48% and that a little more than half of this “contraceptive effect” was due to an increase in teen condom use (58%. The remaining share of the contraceptive effect can be attributed to an increase in the use of more effective hormonal (pill, patch, ring and long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC/injectable methods (Intrauterine Devices (IUD, implant and injectable. Results from an additional counterfactual analysis suggest that the contraceptive effect was driven by the fact that the percentage of teens using no birth control fell during the study time period, rather than by the fact that some teens switched from less effective methods (condoms to more effective hormonal and LARC/injectable methods. However, very high typical use failure rates for teen condom users suggest the need for a two-pronged approach for continuing reductions in teen pregnancy for sexually active teens: first, targeting the youth most at risk of not using contraception and helping them choose contraception, and second, increasing the effectiveness of method use among existing contraceptors.

The Timing and Direction of Statutory Tax Rate Changes by the Canadian Provinces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ergete Ferede

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Tax rate changes are some of the most significant and far-reaching decisions a government can take. A good understanding of the odds of any such changes is essential for any business debating the timing and location of investments. This paper investigates the factors that affect the timing of statutory tax rate changes by Canadian provincial governments. The authors develop a simple theoretical model to explain the “stickiness” of tax rates — the factors that lead a province to decide against tinkering with the tax system — based on the presence of fixed costs of adjusting tax rates. The results indicate that if the current rate falls within a range of tax rates bracketing the optimal rate, then the government will not adjust its tax rate because the cost of the reform outweighs the potential benefits. To build up a body of evidence, this paper employs a multinomial logit model to examine the likelihood of changes to personal income tax (PIT, corporate income tax (CIT, and provincial sales tax (PST rates by provincial governments over the period 1973-2010. Regression results indicate that provincial governments that start with higher tax rates are more likely to cut, and less likely to raise, their tax rates. A higher provincial budget deficit reduces the probability of a CIT rate cut and raises the probability of a PST rate increase. Party ideology seems to matter. Provinces with leftleaning governments are less likely to cut PIT and PST rates, and more likely to raise PIT rates compared to non-left-leaning governments. The authors also find that a federal PIT rate cut raises the probability of a provincial PIT rate increase, whereas a federal CIT rate cut raises the probability of a provincial CIT rate reduction.

Ventilation changes in the western North Pacific since the last glacial period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Okazaki

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We reconstructed the ventilation record of deep water at 2100 m depth in the mid-latitude western North Pacific over the past 25 kyr from radiocarbon measurements of coexisting planktic and benthic foraminiferal shells in sediment with a high sedimentation rate. The ¹⁴C data on fragile and robust planktic foraminiferal shells were concordant with each other, ensuring high quality of the reconstructed ventilation record. The radiocarbon activity changes were consistent with the atmospheric record, suggesting that no massive mixing of old carbon from the abyssal reservoir occurred throughout the glacial to deglacial periods.

Rate Change Big Bang Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Strickland, Ken

2013-04-01

The Rate Change Big Bang Theory redefines the birth of the universe with a dramatic shift in energy direction and a new vision of the first moments. With rate change graph technology (RCGT) we can look back 13.7 billion years and experience every step of the big bang through geometrical intersection technology. The analysis of the Big Bang includes a visualization of the first objects, their properties, the astounding event that created space and time as well as a solution to the mystery of anti-matter.

Changes in food processing and occlusal dental wear during the early agricultural period in northwest Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, James T

2008-01-01

Crown dimensions and occlusal surface wear rate and wear plane were evaluated using paired first and second mandibular molars from a sample of 84 Early Agricultural period (1600 B.C.-A.D. 200) skeletons from northwest Mexico. Although this period represents a major shift in subsistence strategies in the Sonoran Desert, from food-foraging to agriculture, archaeological and dental pathology studies have identified this period as one of relative dietary stability. It was therefore predicted that very little variation in occlusal wear would have occurred between the early phase (San Pedro: 1600-800 B.C.) and late phase (Cienega: 800 B.C.-A.D. 200). Comparison of crown diameters identified some phenotypic differences between sexes but not between archaeological phases. Molar occlusal surfaces were then divided into four quadrants, and wear scores recorded for each quadrant. Principle axis analysis was performed between total wear scores of paired, adjacent first and second mandibular molars to assess rate and occlusal wear plane over time. The analysis demonstrated that both wear rate and wear plane increased from the early to the late phase of the Early Agricultural period. These results indicate that although diet may have indeed remained stable during this period in the Sonoran Desert increases in the rate of wear and wear plane may reflect changes in food-processing techniques. It is suggested that more intensive processing of agricultural products during the Cienega phase simultaneously softened the diet to create more tooth-contact wear and introduced more grit to cause faster and more angled wear on the molar occlusal surfaces. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Tax Rates, Tax Evasion, and Growth in a Multi-period Economy

OpenAIRE

Jordi Caballé; Judith Panadés

2007-01-01

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. We show that, if the penalty imposed on tax evaders is proportional to the amount of evaded taxes, then the growth rate is decreasing in the tax rate. However, th...

Numerical Exploration of Kaldorian Interregional Macrodynamics: Enhanced Stability and Predominance of Period Doubling under Flexible Exchange Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toichiro Asada

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We present a discrete two-regional Kaldorian macrodynamic model with flexible exchange rates and explore numerically the stability of equilibrium and the possibility of generation of business cycles. We use a grid search method in two-dimensional parameter subspaces, and coefficient criteria for the flip and Hopf bifurcation curves, to determine the stability region and its boundary curves in several parameter ranges. The model is characterized by enhanced stability of equilibrium, while its predominant asymptotic behavior when equilibrium is unstable is period doubling. Cycles are scarce and short-lived in parameter space, occurring at large values of the degree of capital movement β. By contrast to the corresponding fixed exchange rates system, for cycles to occur sufficient amount of trade is required together with high levels of capital movement. Rapid changes in exchange rate expectations and decreased government expenditure are factors contributing to the creation of interregional cycles. Examples of bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent diagrams illustrating period doubling or cycles, and their development into chaotic attractors, are given. The paper illustrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the numerical approach for dynamical systems of moderately high dimensionality and several parameters.

Effect of the fluid core on changes in the length of day due to long period tides

Science.gov (United States)

Wahr, J. M.; Smith, M. L.; Sasao, T.

1981-01-01

The long period luni-solar tidal potential is known to cause periodic changes in the earth's rotation rate. It is found that the effect of a dissipationless fluid outer core is to reduce the amplitudes of these tidal perturbations by about 11 percent. When the fluid core effect is added to Agnew and Farrell's (1978) estimate of the effect of an equilibrium ocean, the result is in accord with observation. The effects of dissipative processes within the fluid core are also examined. Out-of-phase perturbations are found which could be as large as about 10 ms at 18.6 yr. It is concluded, however, that the poorly understood decade fluctuations in the earth's rotation rate will prohibit observation of this effect.

Rate of change in renal function and mortality in elderly treated hypertensive patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Enayet K; Langham, Robyn G; Ademi, Zanfina; Owen, Alice; Krum, Henry; Wing, Lindon M H; Nelson, Mark R; Reid, Christopher M

2015-07-07

Evidence relating the rate of change in renal function, measured as eGFR, after antihypertensive treatment in elderly patients to clinical outcome is sparse. This study characterized the rate of change in eGFR after commencement of antihypertensive treatment in an elderly population, the factors associated with eGFR rate change, and the rate's association with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Data from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study were used, where 6083 hypertensive participants aged ≥65 years were enrolled during 1995-1997 and followed for a median of 4.1 years (in-trial). Following the Second Australian National Blood Pressure study, participants were followed-up for a further median 6.9 years (post-trial). The annual rate of change in the eGFR was calculated in 4940 participants using creatinine measurements during the in-trial period and classified into quintiles (Q) on the basis of the following eGFR changes: rapid decline (Q1), decline (Q2), stable (Q3), increase (Q4), and rapid increase (Q5). A rapid decline in eGFR in comparison with those with stable eGFRs during the in-trial period was associated with older age, living in a rural area, wider pulse pressure at baseline, receiving diuretic-based therapy, taking multiple antihypertensive drugs, and having blood pressure <140/90 mmHg during the study. However, a rapid increase in eGFR was observed in younger women and those with a higher cholesterol level. After adjustment for baseline and in-trial covariates, Cox-proportional hazard models showed a significantly greater risk for both all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.52; P=0.003) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.76; P=0.004) mortality in the rapid decline group compared with the stable group over a median of 7.2 years after the last eGFR measure. No significant association with mortality was observed for a rapid increase in eGFR. In elderly persons with

Morphological adaptation of rumen papillae during the dry period and early lactation as affected by rate of increase of concentrate allowance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dieho, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314000550; Bannink, A.; Geurts, I. A L; Schonewille, J. T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/185364306; Gort, G.; Dijkstra, J.

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the morphological adaptation of rumen papilla, which plays an important role in volatile fatty acid absorption, in dry and early lactation dairy cattle is limited. Therefore, macro- and microscopic changes in papilla morphology during the dry period and lactation and the effect of rate

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato

2008-02-05

The rate of change of climate codetermines the global warming impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems and their capabilities to adapt. Establishing past rates of climate change from temperature proxy data remains difficult given their limited spatiotemporal resolution. In contrast, past greenhouse gas radiative forcing, causing climate to change, is well known from ice cores. We compare rates of change of anthropogenic forcing with rates of natural greenhouse gas forcing since the Last Glacial Maximum and of solar and volcanic forcing of the last millennium. The smoothing of atmospheric variations by the enclosure process of air into ice is computed with a firn diffusion and enclosure model. The 20th century increase in CO(2) and its radiative forcing occurred more than an order of magnitude faster than any sustained change during the past 22,000 years. The average rate of increase in the radiative forcing not just from CO(2) but from the combination of CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O is larger during the Industrial Era than during any comparable period of at least the past 16,000 years. In addition, the decadal-to-century scale rate of change in anthropogenic forcing is unusually high in the context of the natural forcing variations (solar and volcanoes) of the past millennium. Our analysis implies that global climate change, which is anthropogenic in origin, is progressing at a speed that is unprecedented at least during the last 22,000 years.

Entrainment to periodic initiation and transition rates in a computational model for gene translation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Margaliot

Full Text Available Periodic oscillations play an important role in many biomedical systems. Proper functioning of biological systems that respond to periodic signals requires the ability to synchronize with the periodic excitation. For example, the sleep/wake cycle is a manifestation of an internal timing system that synchronizes to the solar day. In the terminology of systems theory, the biological system must entrain or phase-lock to the periodic excitation. Entrainment is also important in synthetic biology. For example, connecting several artificial biological systems that entrain to a common clock may lead to a well-functioning modular system. The cell-cycle is a periodic program that regulates DNA synthesis and cell division. Recent biological studies suggest that cell-cycle related genes entrain to this periodic program at the gene translation level, leading to periodically-varying protein levels of these genes. The ribosome flow model (RFM is a deterministic model obtained via a mean-field approximation of a stochastic model from statistical physics that has been used to model numerous processes including ribosome flow along the mRNA. Here we analyze the RFM under the assumption that the initiation and/or transition rates vary periodically with a common period T. We show that the ribosome distribution profile in the RFM entrains to this periodic excitation. In particular, the protein synthesis pattern converges to a unique periodic solution with period T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proof of entrainment in a mathematical model for translation that encapsulates aspects such as initiation and termination rates, ribosomal movement and interactions, and non-homogeneous elongation speeds along the mRNA. Our results support the conjecture that periodic oscillations in tRNA levels and other factors related to the translation process can induce periodic oscillations in protein levels, and may suggest a new approach for re-engineering genetic

Changes in hospitalization rate and mortality after acute myocardial infarction in Denmark after diagnostic criteria and methods changed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abildstrøm, Steen Zabell; Rasmussen, Søren; Madsen, Mette

2004-01-01

AIMS: To analyse the effect of the change in diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and the use of troponin as a diagnostic marker on the hospitalization rate and mortality of hospitalized AMI patients from 1994 to 2001. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients (> or =30 years) admitted...... for their first AMI were identified using the National Patient Registry in Denmark. We registered when each hospital introduced troponin as a diagnostic marker. The reported hospitalization rate decreased until 1998 and then increased substantially from 1999 to 2001 from 3472 to 4163 per million inhabitants (19.......9%) for men and from 1648 to 2020 per million inhabitants (22.6%) for women. Troponin use was associated with a significant 14% increase in hospitalization rate in this period [rate ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.18]. The effect of troponin was greatest among patients 70 years and older (rate...

Does recall period have an effect on cancer patients' ratings of the severity of multiple symptoms?

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Qiuling; Trask, Peter C; Wang, Xin Shelley; Mendoza, Tito R; Apraku, Winifred A; Malekifar, Maggie; Cleeland, Charles S

2010-08-01

Choosing an appropriate recall period for symptom assessment in a clinical trial is dependent on the design and purpose of the trial. To examine the effects of recall on symptom severity ratings by comparing ratings made using 24-hour and seven-day recall periods of the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI). Forty-two patients in their third to eighth week of chemoradiation rated their symptoms using the MDASI on two separate occasions (T1 and T2), one week apart. At T1, patients were randomly assigned to rate symptoms using either a 24-hour or a seven-day recall. At T2, patients rated symptoms using the recall period not used at their first visit. Comparing the 24-hour and seven-day recall periods, the correlation coefficient for total symptom severity was 0.888. All correlation coefficients for symptom severity items were >0.7 except for distress (r=0.67). The percentages of moderate to severe symptoms (rated >or=5) were consistent for both recall periods, with no significant difference between recall periods in the prevalence of moderate to severe symptoms. Cronbach alpha coefficients for both 24-hour and seven-day recalls were >0.8. Symptoms from both recall periods were more severe for patients with poorer performance status. Twenty patients were cognitively debriefed; 70% thought that the seven-day recall was "more appropriate" for the MDASI, but 85% did not think that recall period would influence their answers. This study demonstrated that the MDASI in a seven-day recall format has psychometric properties consistent with the 24-hour recall version, which may promote its use in future cancer clinical trials and may inform the choice of recall period when symptoms are outcome measures. Copyright (c) 2010 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The long view: Causes of climate change over the instrumental period

Science.gov (United States)

Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Polson, D.; Iles, C. E.; Bronnimann, S.

2016-12-01

The period of instrumentally recorded data has seen remarkable changes in climate, with periods of rapid warming, and periods of stagnation or cooling. A recent analysis of the observed temperature change from the instrumental record confirms that most of the warming recorded since the middle of the 20rst century has been caused by human influences, but shows large uncertainty in separating greenhouse gas from aerosol response if accounting for model uncertainty. The contribution by natural forcing and internal variability to the recent warming is estimated to be small, but becomes more important when analysing climate change over earlier or shorter time periods. For example, the enigmatic early 20th century warming was a period of strong climate anomalies, including the US dustbowl drought and exceptional heat waves, and pronounced Arctic warming. Attribution results suggests that about half of the global warming 1901-1950 was forced by greenhouse gases increases, with an anomalously strong contribution by climate variability, and contributions by natural forcing. Long term variations in circulation are important for some regional climate anomalies. Precipitation is important for impacts of climate change and precipitation changes are uncertain in models. Analysis of the instrumental record suggests a human influence on mean and heavy precipitation, and supports climate model estimates of the spatial pattern of precipitation sensitivity to warming. Broadly, and particularly over ocean, wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier. In conclusion, the historical record provides evidence for a strong response to external forcings, supports climate models, and raises questions about multi-decadal variability.

Changes in root lengths of maxillary incisors during orthodontic retention period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ravanmehr H

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Background and Aim: External apical root resorption is a common iatrogenic consequence of orthodontic treatment. Much controversy exists in the literature about changes in root lengths at post treatment periods. Although many practitioners believe that resorption becomes stable after active treatment, quantitative data are scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine quantitative changes in root lengths of maxillary incisors during fixed orthodontic post treatment period, and to assess if it is influenced by gender and factors related to active treatment. Materials and Methods: This was a case cross over study, performed on 80 patients (52 females and 28 males aged between 13 and 22 years. At debonding stage and beginning of retention phase of fixed orthodontic treatment, Hawley type retainer was fabricated for maxillary arch. Periapical radiographs of maxillary incisors using standard parallel technique were obtained immediately after debonding, and 3 and 7 months later. Crown and root lengths of maxillary incisors were measured using computer program. Changes in root lengths were calculated considering correction factors. Also associations between some factors and the change in root lengths during post treatment periods were assessed. These included gender, type of treatment plan (non extraction/extraction, technique (standard edgewise/straight-wire edgewise and duration of active treatment (less than 2 years/2 years and more. T-test and 4-way ANOVA were used for statistical analysis with P0.05 as the limit of significance. Results: No significant relation was found between apical root resorption of maxillary central incisors and time elapsed after treatment. Significant relation was observed between apical root resorption of maxillary lateral incisors and the length of post treatment period. No significant relation was found between root length changes of maxillary incisors during post treatment period and gender, type of treatment

Discrete changes of current statistics in periodically driven stochastic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chernyak, Vladimir Y; Sinitsyn, N A

2010-01-01

We demonstrate that the counting statistics of currents in periodically driven ergodic stochastic systems can show sharp changes of some of its properties in response to continuous changes of the driving protocol. To describe this effect, we introduce a new topological phase factor in the evolution of the moment generating function which is akin to the topological geometric phase in the evolution of a periodically driven quantum mechanical system with time-reversal symmetry. This phase leads to the prediction of a sign change for the difference of the probabilities to find even and odd numbers of particles transferred in a stochastic system in response to cyclic evolution of control parameters. The driving protocols that lead to this sign change should enclose specific degeneracy points in the space of control parameters. The relation between the topology of the paths in the control parameter space and the sign changes can be described in terms of the first Stiefel–Whitney class of topological invariants. (letter)

Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Eduardo Sandoval

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.

The impact of pre-intervention rate of kidney function change on the assessment of CKD progression.

Science.gov (United States)

Fassett, Robert G; Geraghty, Dominic P; Coombes, Jeff S

2014-10-01

Without a run-in phase, chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients enrolled in clinical trials may not be identified as having progressive disease. The aim of this analysis was to quantify the effects of a run-in phase on kidney function outcome in CKD patients enrolled in the Lipid Lowering and Onset of Renal Disease (LORD) trial. The LORD trial assessed the effects of atorvastatin on the rate of change in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and included patients with serum creatinine 120 μmol/l. In this post hoc analysis, we assessed eGFR change during the 12-month period prior to enrolment, the 3-month run-in phase and the first 12-month period of the trial. Eighty of the original 132 patients (where retrospective data were available) were included. The rate of eGFR change during each period was compared. Overall kidney function decreased during the 12 months prior to enrolment by (mean, SD) 0.39 ± 0.98 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/month, improved during the 3-month run-in phase by 0.48 ± 2.90 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/month and decreased during the first 12 months of the trial by 0.15 ± 0.57 ml/min/1.73 m(2)/month. However, only 39 % of patients had declining eGFR during the 12 months prior, 19 % in the 3-month run-in and 42 % during the first 12-month study phase. Most patients (>60 %) entering this clinical trial had stable or improving kidney function. Enrolment was associated with further improved kidney function, which may have been due to 'regression to the mean' or to the Hawthorne effect. Investigators should include a run-in period to establish the presence of eGFR decline to use as an inclusion criterion in clinical trials assessing this measure of CKD progression.

On the amplitude changes of seasonal components in the rate of rotation of the earth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okazaki, Seichi

1975-01-01

In this paper an analysis of seasonal variations in the rate of the Earth's rotation is carried out with regard to the amplitude changes particularly. It is found that the annual and semi-annual components have peculiar changes in the amplitude, i.e., (i) the annual term has been a tendency of the amplitude enhancement of about 0.10 ms day -1 and following decay which occurred rhythmically at 1957. 5, 1963. 5, and 1969. 5, with a 6-yr period and (ii) the semi-annual term had a step change of the amplitude by about +0.13 ms day -1 at the beginning of 1962. As for the amplitude change of the annual term with the repeating period of 6 yr, there is a close correlation between this amplitude change and the westerly zonal winds at the 500-mb level in the particular zone (35 0 -55 0 N). Concerning the periods before and after the amplitude enhancement, the difference of changes in the relative westerly angular momentum in this zone is conspicuous more than that in the zone (20 0 -35 0 N). The amplitude change of the semi-annual term is proved to be attributed to the difference in Δαsub(α) between the fundamental catalogs FK3 and FK4. (auth.)

On the change points of mean residual life and failure rate functions for some generalized gamma type distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parsa M.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Mean residual life and failure rate functions are ubiquitously employed in reliability analysis. The term of useful period of lifetime distributions of bathtub-shaped failure rate functions is referred to the flat rigion of this function and has attracted authors and researchers in reliability, actuary, and survival analysis. In recent years, considering the change points of mean residual life and failure rate functions has been extensively utelized in determining the optimum burn-in time. In this paper we investigate the difference between the change points of failure rate and mean residual life functions of some generalized gamma type distributions due to the capability of these distributions in modeling various bathtub-shaped failure rate functions.

A changing epidemiology of suicide? The influence of birth cohorts on suicide rates in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Julie A

2014-08-01

The increases in suicide among middle-aged baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) in the United States since 1999 suggest a changing epidemiology of suicide. Using data from 1935 to 2010, this paper conducts age-period-cohort analyses to determine the impact of cohorts in shaping temporal patterns of suicide in the United States. The analysis demonstrates that age, period and cohort effects are all important in determining suicide trends. Net of age and period effects, the cohort pattern of suicide rates is U-shaped, with cohorts born between 1915 and 1945 possessing among the very lowest suicide rates. Suicide rates begin to rise with boomers and subsequent cohorts exhibit increasingly higher rates of suicide. The general pattern exists for both men and women but is especially pronounced among males. The average suicide rate over the entire period for males is about 28 per 100,000, 95% CI [27.4, 28.7]. For males born in 1930-34, the suicide rate is estimated to be 17.4 per 100,000, 95% CI [15.9, 18.8]; for males born between 1955 and 1959, the rate is essentially the same as the average for the period while for males born between 1985 and 1989, the suicide rate is estimated to be 37.8 per 100,000, 95% CI [33.1, 43.4]. The results dispute popular claims that boomers exhibit an elevated suicide rate relative to other generations, but boomers do appear to have ushered in new cohort patterns of suicide rates over the life course. These patterns are interpreted within a Durkheimian framework that suggests weakened forms of social integration and regulation among postwar cohorts may be producing increased suicide rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

42 CFR 413.196 - Notification of changes in rate-setting methodologies and payment rates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notification of changes in rate-setting... NURSING FACILITIES Payment for End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Services and Organ Procurement Costs § 413.196 Notification of changes in rate-setting methodologies and payment rates. Link to an amendment...

Mortality rate of lip, oral cavity and pharynx malignant tumors in Serbia within a period 1991-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilić Milena

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Lip, oral cavity and pharynx malignant tumors account for 3.7% of all cancer deaths worldwide, with significant geographic variations in frequency and distribution. The aim of this descriptive epidemiologic study was to analyze the mortality rate of lip, oral cavity and pharynx malignant tumors in Serbia proper within a period 1991-2009. Methods. Mortality rates standardized directly using the world population as the standard were used in data analysis. Linear trend and regression analyses were used to analyze rate trends in mortality. Results. The Serbian population demonstrated an increase in the mortality of lip, oral cavity and pharynx malignant tumors (y = 3.32 + 0.03×; p = 0.002; average annual percent change = + 0.8. The male population showed a significant increase in mortality trend (y = 5.90 + 0.03×; p = 0.020; % change = + 0.9, while the female population did not show a significant increase in mortality. The male/female cancer mortality ratio was 5.5:1. Mortality rates for lip, oral cavity and pharynx cancer increased with age in both genders, with rates being the highest in the population aged 85 and older. Increasing trends of lip, oral cavity and pharynx cancer mortality were observed in males aged 50-54; the average annual percent change was + 7.4 % (95% CI, 6.2-9.0. The population of both genders aged 55-59 demonstrated an increase in lip, oral cavity and pharynx cancer mortality, the increase being + 1.8% (95% CI, 1.4-2.2 in men and + 34.3% (95% CI, 28.4-40.2 in women. Conclusion. The increasing trend in lip, oral cavity and pharynx cancer mortality points to the necessity to investigate etiology and improve primary and secondary prevention measures.

The Investors- Reaction to Investment Rating Change Announcements

OpenAIRE

Chih-Hsiang Chang; Liang-Chien Lee; Shu-Ling Wu

2012-01-01

This study investigates the investors- behavioral reaction to the investment rating change announcements from the views of behavioral finance. The empirical results indicate that self-interest does affect the intention of securities firms to release investment ratings for individual stocks. In addition, behavioral pitfalls are also found in the response of retail investors to investment rating change announcements.

47 CFR 76.1606 - Rate change while complaint pending.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rate change while complaint pending. 76.1606... MULTICHANNEL VIDEO AND CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE Notices § 76.1606 Rate change while complaint pending. A regulated cable operator that proposes to change any rate while a cable service tier complaint is pending...

Changing Survival Rate of Infants Born Before 26 Gestational Weeks; Single-centre study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asad Rahman

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the changing survival rate and morbidities among infants born before 26 gestational weeks at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH in Muscat, Oman. Methods: This retrospective study assessed the mortality and morbidities of all premature infants born alive at 23–26 gestational weeks at SQUH between June 2006 and May 2013. Infants referred to SQUH within 72 hours of birth during this period were also included. Electronic records were reviewed for gestational age, gender, birth weight, maternal age, mode and place of delivery, antenatal steroid administration, morbidity and outcome. The survival rate was calculated and findings were then compared with those of a previous study conducted in the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. Rates of major morbidities were also calculated. Results: A total of 81 infants between 23–26 gestational weeks were admitted to the neonatal unit during the study period. Of these, 58.0% were male and 42.0% were female. Median gestational age was 25 weeks and mean birth weight was 770 ± 150 g. Of the 81 infants, 49 survived. The overall survival rate was 60.5% compared to 41% reported in the previous study. Respiratory distress syndrome (100.0%, retinopathy of prematurity (51.9%, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (34.6%, intraventricular haemorrhage (30.9% and patent ductus arteriosus (28.4% were the most common morbidities. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of infants between 23–26 gestational weeks during the study period had significantly improved in comparison to that found at the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. There is a need for the long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature infants.

Changing Survival Rate of Infants Born Before 26 Gestational Weeks: Single-centre study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Asad; Abdellatif, Mohamed; Sharef, Sharef W; Fazalullah, Muhammad; Al-Senaidi, Khalfan; Khan, Ashfaq A; Ahmad, Masood; Kripail, Mathew; Abuanza, Mazen; Bataclan, Flordeliza

2015-08-01

This study aimed to evaluate the changing survival rate and morbidities among infants born before 26 gestational weeks at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH) in Muscat, Oman. This retrospective study assessed the mortality and morbidities of all premature infants born alive at 23-26 gestational weeks at SQUH between June 2006 and May 2013. Infants referred to SQUH within 72 hours of birth during this period were also included. Electronic records were reviewed for gestational age, gender, birth weight, maternal age, mode and place of delivery, antenatal steroid administration, morbidity and outcome. The survival rate was calculated and findings were then compared with those of a previous study conducted in the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. Rates of major morbidities were also calculated. A total of 81 infants between 23-26 gestational weeks were admitted to the neonatal unit during the study period. Of these, 58.0% were male and 42.0% were female. Median gestational age was 25 weeks and mean birth weight was 770 ± 150 g. Of the 81 infants, 49 survived. The overall survival rate was 60.5% compared to 41% reported in the previous study. Respiratory distress syndrome (100.0%), retinopathy of prematurity (51.9%), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (34.6%), intraventricular haemorrhage (30.9%) and patent ductus arteriosus (28.4%) were the most common morbidities. The overall survival rate of infants between 23-26 gestational weeks during the study period had significantly improved in comparison to that found at the same hospital from 1991 to 1998. There is a need for the long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up of premature infants.

Change-point analysis of geophysical time-series: application to landslide displacement rate (Séchilienne rock avalanche, France)

Science.gov (United States)

Amorese, D.; Grasso, J.-R.; Garambois, S.; Font, M.

2018-05-01

The rank-sum multiple change-point method is a robust statistical procedure designed to search for the optimal number and the location of change points in an arbitrary continue or discrete sequence of values. As such, this procedure can be used to analyse time-series data. Twelve years of robust data sets for the Séchilienne (French Alps) rockslide show a continuous increase in average displacement rate from 50 to 280 mm per month, in the 2004-2014 period, followed by a strong decrease back to 50 mm per month in the 2014-2015 period. When possible kinematic phases are tentatively suggested in previous studies, its solely rely on the basis of empirical threshold values. In this paper, we analyse how the use of a statistical algorithm for change-point detection helps to better understand time phases in landslide kinematics. First, we test the efficiency of the statistical algorithm on geophysical benchmark data, these data sets (stream flows and Northern Hemisphere temperatures) being already analysed by independent statistical tools. Second, we apply the method to 12-yr daily time-series of the Séchilienne landslide, for rainfall and displacement data, from 2003 December to 2015 December, in order to quantitatively extract changes in landslide kinematics. We find two strong significant discontinuities in the weekly cumulated rainfall values: an average rainfall rate increase is resolved in 2012 April and a decrease in 2014 August. Four robust changes are highlighted in the displacement time-series (2008 May, 2009 November-December-2010 January, 2012 September and 2014 March), the 2010 one being preceded by a significant but weak rainfall rate increase (in 2009 November). Accordingly, we are able to quantitatively define five kinematic stages for the Séchilienne rock avalanche during this period. The synchronization between the rainfall and displacement rate, only resolved at the end of 2009 and beginning of 2010, corresponds to a remarkable change (fourfold

Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambrosi, Ph.

2006-01-01

To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

Periodic review inventory policy for non-instantaneous deteriorating items with time dependent deterioration rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anwesha Samanta

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The paper studies a periodic review inventory model with no shortages and different demand rates during pre- and post- deterioration periods . Deterioration of units start after a fixed time interval, and the deterioration rate is time dependent. The model determines the optimal reorder interval and the optimal order quantity so as to minimize the total cost per unit length of an inventory cycle. An extension of the model to include price discount has been further considered. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the model and a sensitivity analysis is also reported.

Care of pediatric tracheostomy in the immediate postoperative period and timing of first tube change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lippert, Dylan; Hoffman, Matthew R; Dang, Phat; McMurray, J Scott; Heatley, Diane; Kille, Tony

2014-12-01

To analyze the safety of a standardized pediatric tracheostomy care protocol in the immediate postoperative period and its impact on tracheostomy related complications. Retrospective case series. Pediatric patients undergoing tracheotomy from February 2010-February 2014. In 2012, a standardized protocol was established regarding postoperative pediatric tracheostomy care. This protocol included securing newly placed tracheostomy tubes using a foam strap with hook and loop fastener rather than twill ties, placing a fresh drain sponge around the tracheostomy tube daily, and performing the first tracheostomy tube change on postoperative day 3 or 4. Outcome measures included rate of skin breakdown and presence of a mature stoma allowing for a safe first tracheostomy tube change. Two types of tracheotomy were performed based on patient age: standard pediatric tracheotomy and adult-style tracheotomy with a Bjork flap. Patients were analyzed separately based on age and the type of tracheotomy performed. Thirty-seven patients in the pre-protocol group and 35 in the post-protocol group were analyzed. The rate of skin breakdown was significantly lower in the post-protocol group (standard: p=0.0048; Bjork flap: p=0.0003). In the post-protocol group, all tube changes were safely accomplished on postoperative day three or four, and the stomas were deemed to be adequately matured to do so in all cases. A standardized postoperative pediatric tracheostomy care protocol resulted in decreased rates of skin breakdown and demonstrated that pediatric tracheostomy tubes can be safely changed as early as 3 days postoperatively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in heart rate associated with contest outcome in agonistic encounters in lobsters.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernáindez-Falcón, Jesús; Basu, Alo C; Govindasamy, Siddhartan; Kravitz, Edward A

2005-03-01

Agonistic contests between lobsters housed together in a confined space progress through encounters of increasing intensity until a dominance relationship is established. Once this relationship is established, losing animals continually retreat from the advances of winners. These encounters are likely to consume much energy in both winning and losing animals. Therefore, one might expect involvement of many physiological systems before, during and after fights. Here, we report effects of agonistic encounters on cardiac frequency in winning and losing adult lobsters involved in dyadic interactions. The results show that: (i) small but significant increases in heart rate are observed upon chemical detection of a conspecific; (ii) during agonistic interactions, further increases in heart rate are seen; and (iii) ultimate winners exhibit greater increases in heart rate lasting longer periods of time compared to ultimate losers. Heart rate in winners remains elevated for at least 15 min after the contests have ended and animals have been returned to their home tanks. Reduced effects are seen in second and third pairings between familiar opponents. The sustained changes in heart rate that we observe in winning lobsters may result from hormonal modulation of cardiac function related to the change in social status brought about by contest outcome.

Rates and limits of climatic change: Discussion of possible targets; Rates and limits of temperature, precipitation, and sea-level changes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gleick, P H [Pacific Inst. for SiDES, Berkeley, CA (US); Sassin, W [Landl (AT)

1990-10-01

The rate of sea-level rise over the next century is likely to accelerate rapidly and exceed rates of rise experienced over the last several thousand years. Under these conditions, adverse effects on natural ecosystems such as coastal marshes and coral reef islands would be widely observable by 2050, and would be noticeable in vulnerable ecosystems by the year 2000, even under low sea-level rise scenario. Non-linearities and sudden events such as storm surges and a change in storm frequency and intensity could lead to damages even earlier. Similarly, change in temperature and precipitation patterns far greater than those experienced in the last 10000to 100000 years seem likely unless strong actions are taken soon. Rates of change in temperature, precipitation, and sea level over geologic time have often exceeded the rates expected over the next century from global warming. These large excursions, however, were often accompanied by dramatic changes in ecosystems and by large species extinctions, and they occurred when no human infrastructure existed. The adaptive abilities of natural ecosystems can be used to define targets of maximum rates of rise. For coral reef islands and coastal marshes, the maximum rate of accretion of materials is 10 to 15 mm/yr. At this rate, however, many reefs and marshes that accrete materials at slower rates will be inundated and destroyed. Average rates of accretion for marshes are lower - between 2 and 5 mm/yr, and between 5 and 10 mm/yr for coral reefs. Even at these lower rates, some ecosystem losses are to be expected. This information leads to a recommended target for the rate of sea-level rise of between 20 and 50 mm per decade, and a target for absolute sea-level rise of between 0.2 and 0.5 above the 1990 global mean sea level. (authors).

Community Colleges and Labor Market Conditions: How Does Enrollment Demand Change Relative to Local Unemployment Rates?

Science.gov (United States)

Hillman, Nicholas W.; Orians, Erica Lee

2013-01-01

This study uses fixed-effects panel data techniques to estimate the elasticity of community college enrollment demand relative to local unemployment rates. The findings suggest that community college enrollment demand is counter-cyclical to changes in the labor market, as enrollments rise during periods of weak economic conditions. Using national…

[Changing medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in French maternity units from 1997 to 2000].

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent-Boulétreau, A; Caillat-Vallet, E; Dumas, A M; Ayzac, L; Chapuis, C; Emery, M N; Girard, R; Haond, C; Lafarge-Leboucher, J; Tissot-Guerraz, F; Fabry, J

2005-04-01

In this study we describe the changes in medical practices and nosocomial infection rates in obstetrics observed through a surveillance network in the South East of France. The maternity units which belong to this network participated in voluntary surveillance using the network's methodology. The criteria for the diagnosis of nosocomial infections were in accordance with the methods described by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 101240 pregnancies including 18503 caesareans (18.3%) were included in the network from 1997 to 2000. During the study period, nosocomial infection rates following caesarean section and vaginal delivery decreased respectively from 7.8% to 4.3% (p infection control programs in maternity units has been confirmed by the results of this surveillance network. During the study period, both obstetrics-related risk factors for nosocomial infection and observed hospital-acquired infection rates were dramatically reduced, what prove an improvement of quality of care in maternity units.

EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE GROWTH RATE OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE PRE - SAP, SAP AND POST - SAP PERIODS IN NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oyinbo Oyakhilomen

2012-05-01

Full Text Available This study was carried out to provide empirical evidence on the growth rates of maize production in three sub - periods in Nigeria namely pre - Structural Adjustment Programme period, Structural Adjustment Program period and post - Structural Adjustment Programme period. Secondary data on maize production in Nigeria during the Pre - Structural Adjustment Programme period (1970 to 1985, Structural Adjustment period (1986 to 1994 and post - Structural Adjustment Programme period (1995 to 2007 were employed in this study. A growth rate model was used to estimate the growth rates of maize in the three sub - periods. The results of the analysis showed that the instantaneous growth rates of maize production are - 0.1%, 5.7% and 2.4% and the compound rates of growth of maize production are - 0.001%, 0.059% and 0.024% for the pre - Structural Adjustment Programme, Structural Adjustment Programme and post - Structural Adjustment Programme periods respectively. The higher compound growth rate of maize production in the Structural Adjustment Programme period implies that the policy reforms in the period was more effective in ensuring increased growth of maize production over that of other periods in Nigeria. Therefore, despite the myriads of problems associated with the programme in Nigeria, it was beneficial to maize production in Nigeria.

Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes

OpenAIRE

Hlušek, Martin

2002-01-01

The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.

Is the Return to the Virtual US Dollar Pegging of East Asian Currencies Correct? : The Impacts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate on the East Asian Currencies in the Post Crisis Period

OpenAIRE

金, 炳宣; Byung Sun, Kim; 経済学研究科

2004-01-01

This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rate regime on East Asian economies between pre- and post-crisis periods, especially with a focus on the impacts of change in yen-dollar rate, using a regression model based on the work by Frankel and Wei (1994). As a result of the study, the following points are understood. Firstly, a greater diversity in exchange rate regime is seen for the post-crisis period than the pre-crisis period. At one extreme, Hong Kong under a stable dollar peg thro...

IMPACT OF MICROBIOLOGICAL CHANGES ON SPONTANEOUS BACTERIAL PERITONITIS IN THREE DIFFERENT PERIODS OVER 17 YEARS.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Paulo Roberto Lerias de; Leão, Gabriel Stefani; Gonçalves, Charlles David Gonçalves; Picon, Rafael Veiga; Tovo, Cristiane Valle

2018-01-01

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis is a serious complication in cirrhotic patients, and changes in the microbiological characteristics reported in the last years are impacting the choice of antibiotic used for treatment. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the changes in the epidemiology and bacterial resistance of the germs causing spontaneous bacterial peritonitis over three different periods over 17 years. All cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and positive culture of ascites fluid were retrospectively studied in a reference Hospital in Southern Brazil. Three periods were ramdomly evaluated: 1997-1998, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015. The most frequent infecting organisms and the sensitivity in vitro to antibiotics were registered. In the first period (1997-1998) there were 33 cases, the most common were: E. coli in 13 (36.11%), Staphylococcus coagulase-negative in 6 (16.66%), K. pneumoniae in 5 (13.88%), S. aureus in 4 (11.11%) and S. faecalis in 3 (8.33%). In the second period (2002-2003), there were 43 cases, the most frequent were: Staphylococus coagulase-negative in 16 (35.55%), S. aureus in 8 (17.77%), E. coli in 7 (15.55%) and K. pneumoniae in 3 (6.66%). In the third period (2014-2015) there were 58 cases (seven with two bacteria), the most frequent were: E. coli in 15 (23.1%), S. viridans in 12 (18.5%), K. pneumoniae in 10 (15.4%) and E. faecium 5 (7.7%). No one was using antibiotic prophylaxis. Considering all staphylococci, the prevalence increased to rates of the order of 50% in the second period, with a reduction in the third period evaluated. Likewise, the prevalence of resistant E. coli increased, reaching 14%. There was a modification of the bacterial population causing spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, with high frequency of gram-positive organisms, as well as an increase in the resistance to the traditionally recommended antibiotics. This study suggests a probable imminent inclusion of a drug against gram

Corporate financing and anticipated credit rating changes

OpenAIRE

Hung, Chi-Hsiou D.; Banerjee, Anurag; Meng, Qingrui

2017-01-01

Firm circumstances change but rating agencies may not make timely revisions to their\\ud ratings, increasing information asymmetry between firms and the market. We examine\\ud whether firms time the securities market before a credit rating agency publicly reveals\\ud its decision to downgrade a firm's credit rating. Using quarterly data, we show that\\ud firms adjust their financing structures before credit rating downgrades are publicly\\ud revealed. More specifically, firms on average increase t...

What Drives the European Central Bank's Interest-Rate Changes?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik; Aastrup, Morten

We show that the ECB's interest rate changes during 1999-2010 have been mainly driven by changes in economic activity in the Euro area. Changes in actual or expected future HICP inflation play a minor, if any, role.......We show that the ECB's interest rate changes during 1999-2010 have been mainly driven by changes in economic activity in the Euro area. Changes in actual or expected future HICP inflation play a minor, if any, role....

Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

2017-06-01

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

Seasonal Changes in Mycosporine-Like Amino Acid Production Rate with Respect to Natural Phytoplankton Species Composition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sun-Yong Ha

2015-11-01

Full Text Available After in situ incubation at the site for a year, phytoplanktons in surface water were exposed to natural light in temperate lakes (every month; thereafter, the net production rate of photoprotective compounds (mycosporine-like amino acids, MAAs was calculated using 13C labeled tracer. This is the first report describing seasonal variation in the net production rate of individual MAAs in temperate lakes using a compound-specific stable isotope method. In the mid-latitude region of the Korean Peninsula, UV radiation (UVR usually peaks from July to August. In Lake Paldang and Lake Cheongpyeong, diatoms dominated among the phytoplankton throughout the year. The relative abundance of Cyanophyceae (Anabaena spiroides reached over 80% during July in Lake Cheongpyeong. Changes in phytoplankton abundance indicate that the phytoplankton community structure is influenced by seasonal changes in the net production rate and concentration of MAAs. Notably, particulate organic matter (POM showed a remarkable change based on the UV intensity occurring during that period; this was because of the fact that cyanobacteria that are highly sensitive to UV irradiance dominated the community. POM cultured in Lake Paldang had the greatest shinorine (SH production rate during October, i.e., 83.83 ± 10.47 fgC·L−1·h−1. The dominance of diatoms indicated that they had a long-term response to UVR. Evaluation of POM cultured in Lake Cheongpyeong revealed that there was an increase in the net MAA production in July (when UVR reached the maximum; a substantial amount of SH, i.e., 17.62 ± 18.34 fgC·L−1·h−1, was recorded during this period. Our results demonstrate that both the net production rate as well as the concentration of MAAs related to photoinduction depended on the phytoplankton community structure. In addition, seasonal changes in UVR also influenced the quantity and production of MAAs in phytoplanktons (especially Cyanophyceae.

Baseline response rates affect resistance to change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuroda, Toshikazu; Cook, James E; Lattal, Kennon A

2018-01-01

The effect of response rates on resistance to change, measured as resistance to extinction, was examined in two experiments. In Experiment 1, responding in transition from a variable-ratio schedule and its yoked-interval counterpart to extinction was compared with pigeons. Following training on a multiple variable-ratio yoked-interval schedule of reinforcement, in which response rates were higher in the former component, reinforcement was removed from both components during a single extended extinction session. Resistance to extinction in the yoked-interval component was always either greater or equal to that in the variable-ratio component. In Experiment 2, resistance to extinction was compared for two groups of rats that exhibited either high or low response rates when maintained on identical variable-interval schedules. Resistance to extinction was greater for the lower-response-rate group. These results suggest that baseline response rate can contribute to resistance to change. Such effects, however, can only be revealed when baseline response rate and reinforcement rate are disentangled (Experiments 1 and 2) from the more usual circumstance where the two covary. Furthermore, they are more cleanly revealed when the programmed contingencies controlling high and low response rates are identical, as in Experiment 2. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Period Variations for the Cepheid VZ Cyg

Science.gov (United States)

Sirorattanakul, Krittanon; Engle, Scott; Pepper, Joshua; Wells, Mark; Laney, Clifton D.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Stassun, Keivan G.

2017-12-01

The Cepheid Period-Luminosity law is a key rung on the extragalactic distance ladder. However, numerous Cepheids are known to undergo period variations. Monitoring, refining, and understanding these period variations allows us to better determine the parameters of the Cepheids themselves and of the instability strip in which they reside, and to test models of stellar evolution. VZ Cyg, a classical Cepheid pulsating at ˜4.864 days, has been observed for over 100 years. Combining data from literature observations, the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) transit survey, and new targeted observations with the Robotically Controlled Telescope (RCT) at Kitt Peak, we find a period change rate of dP/dt = -0.0642 ± 0.0018 s yr-1. However, when only the recent observations are examined, we find a much higher period change rate of dP/dt = -0.0923 ± 0.0110 s yr-1. This higher rate could be due to an apparent long-term (P ≈ 26.5 years) cyclic period variation. The possible interpretations of this single Cepheid’s complex period variations underscore both the need to regularly monitor pulsating variables and the important benefits that photometric surveys such as KELT can have on the field. Further monitoring of this interesting example of Cepheid variability is recommended to confirm and better understand the possible cyclic period variations. Further, Cepheid timing analyses are necessary to fully understand their current behaviors and parameters, as well as their evolutionary histories.

Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

2018-05-01

Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

Assessing sedimentation rates at Usumacinta and Grijalva river basin (Southern Mexico) using OSL and suspended sediment load analysis: A study from the Maya Classic Period

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Salinas, E.; Castillo, M.; Sanderson, D.; Kinnaird, T.; Cruz-Zaragoza, E.

2013-12-01

Studying sedimentation rates on floodplains is key to understanding environmental changes occurred through time in river basins. The Usumacinta and Grijalva rivers flow most of their travel through the southern part of Mexico, forming a large river basin, crossing the states of Chiapas and Tabasco. The Usumacinta-Grijalva River Basin is within the 10 major rivers of North America, having a basin area of ~112 550 km2. We use the OSL technique for dating two sediment profiles and for obtaining luminescence signals in several sediment profiles located in the streambanks of the main trunk of the Usumacinta and Grijalva rivers. We also use mean annual values of suspended sediment load spanning ~50 years to calculate the sedimentation rates. Our OSL dating results start from the 4th Century, when the Maya Civilization was at its peak during the Classic Period. Sedimentation rates show a notable increase at the end of the 19th Century. The increase of the sedimentation rates seems to be related to changes in land uses in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas and Altos de Chiapas, based on deforestation and land clearing for developing new agrarian and pastoral activities. We conclude that the major environmental change in the basin of the Usumacinta and Grijalva Rivers since the Maya Classic Period was generated since the last Century as a result of an intense anthropogenic disturbance of mountain rain forest in Chiapas.

Effects of climate change on water requirements and phenological period of major crops in Heihe River basin, China - Based on the accumulated temperature threshold method

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Dongmei; Xu, Xinyi; Yan, Denghua

2016-04-01

In recent years, global climate change has significantly caused a serious crisis of water resources throughout the world. However, mainly through variations in temperature, climate change will affect water requirements of crop. It is obvious that the rise of temperature affects growing period and phenological period of crop directly, then changes the water demand quota of crop. Methods including accumulated temperature threshold and climatic tendency rate were adopted, which made up for the weakness of phenological observations, to reveal the response of crop phenological change during the growing period. Then using Penman-Menteith model and crop coefficients from the United Nations Food& Agriculture Organization (FAO), the paper firstly explored crop water requirements in different growth periods, and further forecasted quantitatively crop water requirements in Heihe River Basin, China under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that: (i) The results of crop phenological change established in the method of accumulated temperature threshold were in agreement with measured results, and (ii) there were many differences in impacts of climate warming on water requirement of different crops. The growth periods of wheat and corn had tendency of shortening as well as the length of growth periods. (ii)Results of crop water requirements under different climate change scenarios showed: when temperature increased by 1°C, the start time of wheat growth period changed, 2 days earlier than before, and the length of total growth period shortened 2 days. Wheat water requirements increased by 1.4mm. However, corn water requirements decreased by almost 0.9mm due to the increasing temperature of 1°C. And the start time of corn growth period become 3 days ahead, and the length of total growth period shortened 4 days. Therefore, the contradiction between water supply and water demands are more obvious under the future climate warming in Heihe River Basin, China.

Cow, farm, and management factors during the dry period that determine the rate of clinical mastitis after calving.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, M J; Bradley, A J; Medley, G F; Browne, W J

2007-08-01

The purpose of the research was to investigate cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on the rate of clinical mastitis after calving. Data were collected over a 2-yr period from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales. Cows were separated for analysis into those housed for the dry period (8,710 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (9,964 cow-dry periods). Multilevel models were used within a Bayesian framework with 2 response variables, the occurrence of a first case of clinical mastitis within the first 30 d of lactation and time to the first case of clinical mastitis during lactation. A variety of cow and herd management factors were identified as being associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis and these were found to occur throughout the dry period. Significant cow factors were increased parity and at least one somatic cell count > or = 200,000 cells/mL in the 90 d before drying off. A number of management factors related to hygiene were significantly associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis. These included measures linked to the administration of dry-cow treatments and management of the early and late dry-period accommodation and calving areas. Other farm factors associated with a reduced rate of clinical mastitis were vaccination with a leptospirosis vaccine, selection of dry-cow treatments for individual cows within a herd rather than for the herd as a whole, routine body condition scoring of cows at drying off, and a pasture rotation policy of grazing dry cows for a maximum of 2 wk before allowing the pasture to remain nongrazed for a period of 4 wk. Models demonstrated a good ability to predict the farm incidence rate of clinical mastitis in a given year, with model predictions explaining over 85% of the variability in the observed data. The research indicates that specific dry-period management strategies have an important

Heart rate response to breathing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mehlsen, J; Pagh, K; Nielsen, J S

1987-01-01

Heart rate responses to stepwise and periodic changes in lung volume were studied in seven young healthy males. Stepwise inspiration and expiration both resulted in an increase in heart rate followed by a rapid decrease in heart rate. The fastest heart rate was reached in 1.6 +/- 0.5 s and in 3.......6 +/- 1.4 s in response to inspiration and expiration, respectively (P less than 0.01). The slowest heart rate was reached in 4.8 +/- 1.0 s and in 7.6 +/- 1.9 s in response to inspiration and expiration, respectively (P less than 0.01). Following this biphasic change the heart rate returned to a steady...... level. The difference between the fastest and the slowest heart rates was significantly larger in response to inspiration (21.7 +/- 7.3 beats per minute) than in response to expiration (12.0 +/- 7.3 beats per minute; P less than 0.01). Periodic changes in lung volume were performed with frequencies from...

Anthropogenic changes and environmental degradation in pre-Hispanic and post-Colonial periods: soil erosion modelled with WEPP during Late Holocene in Teotihuacán Valley (central Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Lourdes González-Arqueros, M.; Mendoza Cantú, Manuel E.

2015-04-01

Land use changes and support practices are a worldwide significant issue in soil erosion and subsequently, land degradation. Anthropogenic changes, along different periods of the history in the last 2000 years in the Valley of Teotihuacan (central Mexico), highlight that soil erosion varies depending on how the management and the intensity of soil use is handled, considering the soils as a main resource. As a part of a broader effort to reconstruct the erosion dynamics in the Teotihuacán Valley through geoarchaeological approaches, this study apply a process-based watershed hydrology and upland erosion model, Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). This research aims to contribute with insights through modelling and to recreate soil erosion and sedimentation dynamics in several historical periods with different environmental and anthropogenic scenarios. The Geo-spatial interface for WEPP (GeoWEPP) was used to characterize location of detachment, depositions and erosion predicted on the profile through time, based on current and hypothetical reconstructed conditions in the watershed. Climate, topography, soil and land use were used as inputs for the WEPP model to estimate runoff fluxes, soil loss rates, and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for three historical scenarios: current period, reconstructed Teotihuacán period (AD 1-650), and reconstructed Aztec period (AD 1325-1520). Over a simulated and stablished timeframe for those social periods, the runoff, soil loss rate and SDR were estimated to be greater during the Aztec period. We assume that in general the climate conditions for this period were wetter, compared with present, in agreement with several authors that proposed climate reconstructions for the center of Mexico. It is also highlighted that support practices were more effective in this period. The next period with higher values is the current one, and fewer rates are estimated for the Teotihuacán period. This comparison release new arguments in the

Discrete exchange rate changes with real wage resistance

OpenAIRE

Tapio Palokangas

1992-01-01

Fixed exchange rate policy is examined when money wages are determined by collective bargaining for fixed periods. The main results are as follows. If the interest elasticity of aggregate demand is high and the contract periods in the labour market are long, then in the short run, a devaluation produces expansion but in the long run, contraction. Expectations on a future devaluation cause expansion before the occurrence of the devaluation and at the moment of the occurrence, domestic expendit...

The Rate of Seasonal Changes in Temperature Alters Acclimation of Performance under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Johansson, Frank

2017-12-01

How the ability to acclimate will impact individual performance and ecological interactions under climate change remains poorly understood. Theory predicts that the benefit an organism can gain from acclimating depends on the rate at which temperatures change relative to the time it takes to induce beneficial acclimation. Here, we present a conceptual model showing how slower seasonal changes under climate change can alter species' relative performance when they differ in acclimation rate and magnitude. To test predictions from theory, we performed a microcosm experiment where we reared a mid- and a high-latitude damselfly species alone or together under the rapid seasonality currently experienced at 62°N and the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change and measured larval growth and survival. To separate acclimation effects from fixed thermal responses, we simulated growth trajectories based on species' growth rates at constant temperatures and quantified how much and how fast species needed to acclimate to match the observed growth trajectories. Consistent with our predictions, the results showed that the midlatitude species had a greater capacity for acclimation than the high-latitude species. Furthermore, since acclimation occurred at a slower rate than seasonal temperature changes, the midlatitude species had a small growth advantage over the high-latitude species under the current seasonality but a greater growth advantage under the slower seasonality predicted for this latitude under climate change. In addition, the two species did not differ in survival under the current seasonality, but the midlatitude species had higher survival under the predicted climate change scenario, possibly because rates of cannibalism were lower when smaller heterospecifics were present. These findings highlight the need to incorporate acclimation rates in ecological models.

Ownership Structure and Earnings Management in periods of Executive Changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sommer, Rasmus S.

This paper reports evidence of earnings management associated with non-routine executive changes in a Danish context. It is hypothesised that incoming executives in non-owner-controlled companies decrease earnings by means of discretionary accruals in the financial statements relating to the period...

Estimation of uncertainty in tracer gas measurement of air change rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Iizuka, Atsushi; Okuizumi, Yumiko; Yanagisawa, Yukio

2010-12-01

Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of air change rate can be avoided. The proposed estimation method will be useful in practical ventilation measurements.

Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Castaldi, Simona; Jackson, Robert B.; Alexe, Mihai; Arora, Vivek K.; Beerling, David J.; Bergamaschi, Peter; Blake, Donald R.; Brailsford, Gordon; Bruhwiler, Lori; Crevoisier, Cyril; Crill, Patrick; Covey, Kristofer; Frankenberg, Christian; Gedney, Nicola; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Ishizawa, Misa; Ito, Akihiko; Joos, Fortunat; Kim, Heon-Sook; Kleinen, Thomas; Krummel, Paul; Lamarque, Jean-François; Langenfelds, Ray; Locatelli, Robin; Machida, Toshinobu; Maksyutov, Shamil; Melton, Joe R.; Morino, Isamu; Naik, Vaishali; O'Doherty, Simon; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Patra, Prabir K.; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Peters, Glen P.; Pison, Isabelle; Prinn, Ronald; Ramonet, Michel; Riley, William J.; Saito, Makoto; Santini, Monia; Schroeder, Ronny; Simpson, Isobel J.; Spahni, Renato; Takizawa, Atsushi; Thornton, Brett F.; Tian, Hanqin; Tohjima, Yasunori; Viovy, Nicolas; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Weiss, Ray; Wilton, David J.; Wiltshire, Andy; Worthy, Doug; Wunch, Debra; Xu, Xiyan; Yoshida, Yukio; Zhang, Bowen; Zhang, Zhen; Zhu, Qiuan

2017-09-01

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000-2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr-1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies

Period Prevalence and Reporting Rate of Needlestick Injuries to Nurses in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rezaei, Satar; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Zandian, Hamed; Fathi, Afshin; Nouri, Bijan

2017-08-01

The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to provide a precise estimate of the period prevalence of needlestick injuries (NSI) among nurses working in hospitals in Iran and the reporting rate of NSI to nurse managers. We searched both international (PubMed, Scopus and the Institute for Scientific Information) and Iranian (Scientific Information Database, Iranmedex and Magiran) scientific databases to find studies published from 2000 to 2016 of NSI among Iranian nurses. The following keywords in Persian and English were used: "needle-stick" or "needle stick" or "needlestick," with and without "injury" or "injuries," "prevalence" or "frequency," "nurses" or "nursing staff," and "Iran." In a sample of 21 articles with 6,480 participants, we estimated that the overall 1-year period prevalence of NSI was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35-53%) among Iranian nurses. The overall 1-year period prevalence of reporting NSI to nurse managers was 42% (95% CI, 33-52%). In meta-regression analysis, sample size, mean age, years of experience, and gender ratio were not associated with prevalence of NSI or reporting rate. The year of data collection was positively associated with period prevalence of NSI (p managers. Results indicated a high NSI period prevalence and low NSI reporting rate among nurses in Iran. Thus, effective interventions are required in hospitals in Iran to reduce the prevalence and increase the reporting rate of NSI. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Examining job tenure and lost-time claim rates in Ontario, Canada, over a 10-year period, 1999-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Morassaei, Sara; Breslin, F Curtis; Shen, Min; Smith, Peter M

2013-03-01

We sought to examine the association between job tenure and lost-time claim rates over a 10-year period in Ontario, Canada. Data were obtained from workers' compensation records and labour force survey data from 1999 to 2008. Claim rates were calculated for gender, age, industry, occupation, year and job tenure group. A multivariate analysis and examination of effect modification were performed. Differences in injury event and source of injury were also examined by job tenure. Lost-time claim rates were significantly higher for workers with shorter job tenure, regardless of other factors. Claim rates for new workers differed by gender, age and industry, but remained relatively constant at an elevated rate over the observed time period. This study is the first to examine lost-time claim rates by job tenure over a time period during which overall claim rates generally declined. Claim rates did not show a convergence by job tenure. Findings highlight that new workers are still at elevated risk, and suggest the need for improved training, reducing exposures among new workers, promoting permanent employment, and monitoring work injury trends and risk factors.

Effects of Rainfall-Induced Topsoil Structure Changes on Root-Zone Moisture Regime during the Dry Period

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Feng; Chen, Jiazhou; Lin, Lirong

2018-01-01

Rainfall erosion and subsequent intermittent drought are serious barriers for agricultural production in the subtropical red soil region of China. Although it is widely recognized that rainfall-induced soil structure degradation reduced soil water storage and water-holding capacity, the effects of variation of the rainfall-induced topsoil structure on the subsequent soil water regime during the dry period is still rarely considered. The objective of this study was to ascertain the way of rainfall-induced topsoil structure changes on the subsequent soil water regime during the dry period. In a three-year-long experiment, six practices (CK, only crop; SM, straw mulching; PAM, polyacrylamide surface application; B, contour Bahia-grass strip; SPAM, straw mulching and polyacrylamide surface application; and BPAM, contour Bahia-grass strip and polyacrylamide surface application) were conducted at an 8° farmland with planting summer maize resulting in different topsoil structure and root-zone moisture, to establish and reveal the quantitatively relationship between the factors of topsoil structure and soil drought. Rainfall erosion significantly increased the soil crust coverage, and decreased the WSA 0.25, 0-30 mm soil porosity and mean pore size. There was no significant difference during the raining stage of root-zone water storage between CK and other practices. An index of soil drought intensity ( I) and degree ( D) was established using soil water loss rate and soil drought severity. The larger value of I means a higher rate of water loss. The larger value of D means more severe drought. During the dry period, I and D were significantly higher in CK than in other practices. I and D had significantly positively correlation with the crust size and crust coverage, and negatively with WSA 0.25, 15-30 mm soil porosity and mean pore size. Among of soil structure factors, the soil porosity had the largest effect on I and D. The rainfall-induced topsoil structure changes

Blood pressure changes associated with sibutramine and weight management - an analysis from the 6-week lead-in period of the sibutramine cardiovascular outcomes trial (SCOUT)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharma, A M; Caterson, I D; Coutinho, W

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To explore vital sign changes among patient subgroups during the 6-week lead-in period of the sibutramine cardiovascular outcomes (SCOUT) trial. METHODS: SCOUT is an ongoing, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled outcome trial in overweight/obese patients at high risk of a cardi......OBJECTIVE: To explore vital sign changes among patient subgroups during the 6-week lead-in period of the sibutramine cardiovascular outcomes (SCOUT) trial. METHODS: SCOUT is an ongoing, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled outcome trial in overweight/obese patients at high risk...... of a cardiovascular event. During the 6-week lead-in period, 10,742 patients received sibutramine and weight management. Vital sign changes were assessed post hoc by initial blood pressure (mmHg) categorized as normal (or=140/>or=90); weight change...... categories (weight gain/no weight change, >0 to 2.5% weight loss, >2.5 to 5% weight loss and >5% weight loss) and current antihypertensive medication class use (none, one, or two or more). To assess the impact of sibutramine on blood pressure and pulse rate, only patients (N = 10,025) who reported no change...

Changes in the physical capacity of road cyclists during the preparatory period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzysztof Byzdra

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Graduation work entitled "Changes in the physical capacity of road cyclists during the preparatory period" is based on spiroergometric tests, which assess at the same time three systems: respiratory, circulatory and muscular.                The work shows the changes effort possibilities of road cyclists, under the influence of training conducted during the preparatory period.                In the theoretical part of this work were characterized the concept of physical capacity, its division and assessment methods of capacity. Selected parameters were presented, determined in the spiroergometric tests. Also the time structure of training in road cycling was described.                Each of competitors were tested twice a time. The first test took place at the turn of January and December, that is during the preparatory period. The second test cyclists took place in the second half of March, so at the end of the preparatory period,  before the first races. The results of five parameters were analyzed: WR max, WR (VT1, VO2max, VO2 / HR (VT1,% VO2max (VT1.                All tested parameters were increased during preparatory period. The most susceptible to the increase parameters under the influence of training during the preparatory period are: power generated on the anaerobic threshold and on the top of the effort (increase 12,68% and 11,25%, oxygen pulse (12,88%. Training improve the work of the muscular and circulatory systems. The least exposed to changes are parameters of gas exchange.                Spiroergometric tests results can be used for planning training in subsequent training periods.

On the Relation between Tax Rates and Evasion in a Multi-period Economy

OpenAIRE

Jordi Caball?Author-Email:; Judith Panad?

2001-01-01

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static set...

On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

OpenAIRE

Caballé, Jordi

2006-01-01

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static set...

Changes in brain development of rat fetus exposed to 137Cs γ rays in different pregnant periods of the female rats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Yuefeng; Wang Mingming

2004-01-01

Pregnant rats in 11d and 16d of their pregnancy were given one-off whole body exposure by 137 Cs γ rays to 0.2, 0.4, 0.9 and 2.0 Gy, respectively. Changes were observed in conditioned drinking response and cerebrum hippocampi cone cell number of the baby rats exposed to the γ rays in different periods of their embryo development. As a result, that pregnant rats exposed to 137 Cs γ rays in different pregnant periods may induce significant decrease in cerebrum hippocampi cone cell number and achieving rate of conditioned drinking response of the babies. The dose-response relationship can be described by Y=a-b log 10 D. The achieving rate of conditioned drinking response were significantly correlated to cerebrum hippocampi cone cell number in the babies, and the achieving rate of conditioned drinking response of the babies exposed at pregnant 11d was lower than others exposed at pregnant 16d

Period changes of cataclysmic variables below the period gap: V2051 Oph, OY Car and Z Cha

Science.gov (United States)

Pilarčík, L.; Wolf, M.; Zasche, P.; Vraštil, J.

2018-04-01

We present our results of a long-term monitoring of cataclysmic variable stars (CVs). About 40 new eclipses were measured for the three southern SU UMa-type eclipsing CVs: V2051 Oph, OY Car and Z Cha. Based on the current O - C diagrams we confirmed earlier findings that V2051 Oph and OY Car present cyclic changes of their orbital periods lasting 25 and 29 years, respectively. In case of Z Cha we propose the light-time effect caused probably by a presence of the third component orbiting the eclipsing CV with the period of 43.5 years. The minimal mass of this companion results about 15 MJup.

7 CFR 3575.80 - Interest rate changes after loan closing.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate changes after loan closing. 3575.80..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL Community Programs Guaranteed Loans § 3575.80 Interest rate changes after...) may collectively effect a permanent reduction in the interest rate on the guaranteed loan at any time...

7 CFR 1779.80 - Interest rate changes after loan closing.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate changes after loan closing. 1779.80....80 Interest rate changes after loan closing. (a) General. Subject to the restrictions below, the borrower, lender, and holder (if any) may collectively effect a permanent reduction in the interest rate on...

Changes in extracellular muscle volume affect heart rate and blood pressure responses to static exercise

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, K.; Essfeld, D.; Stegemann, J.

To investigate the effect of μg-induced peripheral extracellular fluid reductions on heart rate and blood pressure during isometric exercise, six healthy male subjects performed three calf ergometer test with different extracellular volumes of working muscles. In all tests, body positions during exercise were identical (supine with the knee joint flexed to 900). After a pre-exercise period of 25 min, during which calf volumes were manipulated, subjects had to counteract an external force of 180 N for 5 min. During the pre-exercise period three different protocols were applied. Test A: Subjects rested in the exercise position; test B: Body position was the same as in A but calf volume was increased by venous congestion (cuffs inflated to 80 mm Hg); test C: Calf volumes were decreased by a negative hydrostatic pressure (calves about 40 cm above heart level with the subjects supine). To clamp the changed calf volumes in tests B and C, cuffs were inflated to 300 mm Hg 5 min before the onset of exercise. This occlusion was maintained until termination of exercise. Compared to tests A and B, the reduced volume of test C led to significant increases in heart rate and blood pressure during exercise. Oxygen uptake did not exceed resting levels in B and C until cuffs were deflated, indicating that exclusively calf muscles contributed to the neurogenic peripheral drive. It is concluded that changes in extracellular muscle volume have to be taken into account when comparing heart rate and blood pressure during lg- and μg- exercise.

Change of Diurnal Heart Rate Patterns During Pregnancy and Lactation in Dogs (Canis familiaris

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Häggström J

2003-09-01

Full Text Available Pregnancy and lactation involve great demands on the cardiovascular system. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the heart rate and diurnal heart rate pattern change when dogs become pregnant or lactate. Five clinically healthy female beagle dogs were mated, and delivered three to seven healthy puppies. The heart rate was investigated with 24-h ECG (Holter once during anoestrus, at 3, 5, 7 and 9 weeks of pregnancy, and at week 4 postpartum (lactation. However, at 9 weeks, the ECG could not be recorded for the fully 24 h in 4 of 5 dogs, because labour started and the dogs then appeared disturbed by the recordings. The results at this date are not included in the statistical comparison. The heart rate increased progressively during pregnancy and was still elevated at 4 weeks of lactation. During late pregnancy the difference in heart rates between daytime and nighttime became smaller, but the heart rate was significantly higher in daytime in all periods. In conclusion, the increased heart rates during pregnancy and lactation reflect increased demands on the cardiovascular system and may be important to consider in clinical practice.

Estimation of Uncertainty in Tracer Gas Measurement of Air Change Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Atsushi Iizuka

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Simple and economical measurement of air change rates can be achieved with a passive-type tracer gas doser and sampler. However, this is made more complex by the fact many buildings are not a single fully mixed zone. This means many measurements are required to obtain information on ventilation conditions. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of tracer gas measurement of air change rate in n completely mixed zones. A single measurement with one tracer gas could be used to simply estimate the air change rate when n = 2. Accurate air change rates could not be obtained for n ≥ 2 due to a lack of information. However, the proposed method can be used to estimate an air change rate with an accuracy of

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

Science.gov (United States)

Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

2015-08-01

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Emotional Responses to Music: Shifts in Frontal Brain Asymmetry Mark Periods of Musical Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Arjmand, Hussain-Abdulah; Hohagen, Jesper; Paton, Bryan; Rickard, Nikki S

2017-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated increased activity in brain regions associated with emotion and reward when listening to pleasurable music. Unexpected change in musical features intensity and tempo - and thereby enhanced tension and anticipation - is proposed to be one of the primary mechanisms by which music induces a strong emotional response in listeners. Whether such musical features coincide with central measures of emotional response has not, however, been extensively examined. In this study, subjective and physiological measures of experienced emotion were obtained continuously from 18 participants (12 females, 6 males; 18-38 years) who listened to four stimuli-pleasant music, unpleasant music (dissonant manipulations of their own music), neutral music, and no music, in a counter-balanced order. Each stimulus was presented twice: electroencephalograph (EEG) data were collected during the first, while participants continuously subjectively rated the stimuli during the second presentation. Frontal asymmetry (FA) indices from frontal and temporal sites were calculated, and peak periods of bias toward the left (indicating a shift toward positive affect) were identified across the sample. The music pieces were also examined to define the temporal onset of key musical features. Subjective reports of emotional experience averaged across the condition confirmed participants rated their music selection as very positive, the scrambled music as negative, and the neutral music and silence as neither positive nor negative. Significant effects in FA were observed in the frontal electrode pair FC3-FC4, and the greatest increase in left bias from baseline was observed in response to pleasurable music. These results are consistent with findings from previous research. Peak FA responses at this site were also found to co-occur with key musical events relating to change, for instance, the introduction of a new motif, or an instrument change, or a change in low level acoustic

Emotional Responses to Music: Shifts in Frontal Brain Asymmetry Mark Periods of Musical Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hussain-Abdulah Arjmand

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have demonstrated increased activity in brain regions associated with emotion and reward when listening to pleasurable music. Unexpected change in musical features intensity and tempo – and thereby enhanced tension and anticipation – is proposed to be one of the primary mechanisms by which music induces a strong emotional response in listeners. Whether such musical features coincide with central measures of emotional response has not, however, been extensively examined. In this study, subjective and physiological measures of experienced emotion were obtained continuously from 18 participants (12 females, 6 males; 18–38 years who listened to four stimuli—pleasant music, unpleasant music (dissonant manipulations of their own music, neutral music, and no music, in a counter-balanced order. Each stimulus was presented twice: electroencephalograph (EEG data were collected during the first, while participants continuously subjectively rated the stimuli during the second presentation. Frontal asymmetry (FA indices from frontal and temporal sites were calculated, and peak periods of bias toward the left (indicating a shift toward positive affect were identified across the sample. The music pieces were also examined to define the temporal onset of key musical features. Subjective reports of emotional experience averaged across the condition confirmed participants rated their music selection as very positive, the scrambled music as negative, and the neutral music and silence as neither positive nor negative. Significant effects in FA were observed in the frontal electrode pair FC3–FC4, and the greatest increase in left bias from baseline was observed in response to pleasurable music. These results are consistent with findings from previous research. Peak FA responses at this site were also found to co-occur with key musical events relating to change, for instance, the introduction of a new motif, or an instrument change, or a

Associations between changes in the pattern of suicide methods and rates in Korea, the US, and Finland

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The lethality of the suicide method employed is a strong risk factor for the completion of suicide. We examined whether annual changes in the pattern of suicide methods is related to annual changes in suicide rates in South Korea, the United States (US), and Finland. Methods We analyzed annual data from 2000–2011 for South Korea and Finland, and 2000–2010 for the US in order to examine trends in the rates and methods of suicide. Data on suicide methods were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. Results Along with an annual rapid increase in suicide rates, the incidence of hanging increased steadily while suicide by self-poisoning steadily decreased in South Korea. In the US, along with an annual increase in suicide rates, the proportion of suicides committed by hanging increased while those committed with the use of firearms steadily decreased. In Finland, annual changes in the suicide rate and suicide method were not statistically significant during the study period. Conclusions Our present findings suggest that the increased use of specific lethal methods for suicide, namely hanging, is reflected in the increased suicide rates in the Korean and the US populations. The most effective approach for reducing overall suicide rates may be the implementation of population-based initiatives that reduce both the accessibility (e.g., access to firearms) and the social acceptability (e.g., effective and responsible regulations for reporting suicide) of lethal methods of suicide. PMID:24949083

Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosse, Henrik Barslund

Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

Proxy-rated quality of life in Alzheimer's disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogel, Asmus; Bhattacharya, Suvosree; Waldorff, Frans Boch

2012-01-01

The study investigated the change in proxy rated quality of life (QoL) of a large cohort of home living patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) over a period of 36 months.......The study investigated the change in proxy rated quality of life (QoL) of a large cohort of home living patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) over a period of 36 months....

A Gaussian Process Based Online Change Detection Algorithm for Monitoring Periodic Time Series

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chandola, Varun [ORNL; Vatsavai, Raju [ORNL

2011-01-01

Online time series change detection is a critical component of many monitoring systems, such as space and air-borne remote sensing instruments, cardiac monitors, and network traffic profilers, which continuously analyze observations recorded by sensors. Data collected by such sensors typically has a periodic (seasonal) component. Most existing time series change detection methods are not directly applicable to handle such data, either because they are not designed to handle periodic time series or because they cannot operate in an online mode. We propose an online change detection algorithm which can handle periodic time series. The algorithm uses a Gaussian process based non-parametric time series prediction model and monitors the difference between the predictions and actual observations within a statistically principled control chart framework to identify changes. A key challenge in using Gaussian process in an online mode is the need to solve a large system of equations involving the associated covariance matrix which grows with every time step. The proposed algorithm exploits the special structure of the covariance matrix and can analyze a time series of length T in O(T^2) time while maintaining a O(T) memory footprint, compared to O(T^4) time and O(T^2) memory requirement of standard matrix manipulation methods. We experimentally demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm over several existing time series change detection algorithms on a set of synthetic and real time series. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for identifying land use land cover changes using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data collected for an agricultural region in Iowa state, USA. Our algorithm is able to detect different types of changes in a NDVI validation data set (with ~80% accuracy) which occur due to crop type changes as well as disruptive changes (e.g., natural disasters).

PERIOD ESTIMATION FOR SPARSELY SAMPLED QUASI-PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES APPLIED TO MIRAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Shiyuan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Long, James [Department of Statistics, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Yuan, Wenlong; Macri, Lucas M., E-mail: lmacri@tamu.edu [George P. and Cynthia W. Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

2016-12-01

We develop a nonlinear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter space over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting period–luminosity relations.

Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long-Period Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Hernandez, Stephen; Main, Ian G.; Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario

2018-02-01

Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic "drumbeat" long-period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well-developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes.

Reflection of the Change in VAT Rates on Selected Household Expenditures in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic (2007–2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Široký

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Member States of the European Union in the period of years 2007–2013 increased the rate of value added tax several times in an attempt to consolidate public budgets. While the Czech Republic is a typical representative of country changing VAT rates several times, Slovakia made practically only one change in the VAT rate. On the other hand, the Slovak Republic is a country where the reduced rate is applied only to the minimum of commodities. Changes in VAT are naturally reflected in household expenditures which are analyzed by the consumer basket, whose composition is also a subject of changes. Another factor that has an impact on household spending is swapping commodities between the rates of VAT.The aim of this paper is, based on the analytic-synthetic methods, to determine how are these changes differently manifested in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic in reference to the share of commodity consumption included in the standard and reduced VAT rates and to the exempt transactions, and, in particular, to determine how they affected the VAT burden of the hypothetical household in both countries.

Periodic variations of cosmic ray intensity with period of -37 minute observed on April 25th, 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, Takasuke; Kato, Masahito; Takei, Ryoji; Tamai, Eiji

1985-01-01

Existence of cosmic ray variation with period ranging from a few hours to seconds during geomagnetically quiet and perturb period at different altitude with different detector, was reported previously. As short period variation is thought to be transient with small amplitude fluctuation, consequently high counting rate of cosmic ray and appropriate method for finding short periodicity, is required. Further, there is similar phenomenon in which short variation, followed by storm sudden commencement (SSC) and/or Forbush decrease (FD) occurs. In 1979, Kato et al. used 3 minutes data at Mt. Norikura and obtained -6 x 10 5 count/min, and tried to find out short periodicity of cosmic ray around SSC, but no clear conclusion was obtained. T. Sakai, et al., used plastic scintillation counter of Akeno observatory, following their preceding work. The counter has an area about 154 m 2 . High counting rate of -2 x 10 6 counts/min. was observed at Akeno which revealed the existence of -37 minute periodical oscillation with an amplitude of 0.1 % in p-p during the time period of 1300 - 1900 UT on April 25th 1984, one day before FD. Observed periodical oscillation of cosmic ray counting rate may be the result of the changes in magnetic field. But, it must be noted that there remains possibility of oscillation of cosmic ray intensity in the interplanetary space during the period, independent of geomagnetic field. (author)

Heart rate variability during pre-competition and competition periods in volleyball players

OpenAIRE

Podstawski Robert; Boraczyński Michał; Nowosielska-Swadźba Danuta; Zwolińska Danuta

2014-01-01

Study aim: Regular exercise training is thought to modify cardiac autonomic control. One of the body’s responses to training stimuli is heart rate variability (HRV). The use of HRV in the management of sport training is a common practice. The objective of the present study was to assess the impact of the physical activity level on HRV of 1st league national volleyball players prior to and during the competition period.

Heart rate variability during pre-competition and competition periods in volleyball players

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Podstawski Robert

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Study aim: Regular exercise training is thought to modify cardiac autonomic control. One of the body’s responses to training stimuli is heart rate variability (HRV. The use of HRV in the management of sport training is a common practice. The objective of the present study was to assess the impact of the physical activity level on HRV of 1st league national volleyball players prior to and during the competition period.

Decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate

OpenAIRE

Hotchkiss, Julie L.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a simple methodology for decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate (LFPR) over time into demographic group changes in labor force participation behavior and in population share. The purpose is to identify the relative importance of behavioral changes and population changes as driving forces behind changes in the aggregate LFPR.

Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Saunois

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4 budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to

Subcutaneous insulin infusion: change in basal infusion rate has no immediate effect on insulin absorption rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hildebrandt, P.; Birch, K.; Jensen, B.M.; Kuehl, C.

1986-01-01

Eight insulin-dependent diabetic patients were simultaneously given subcutaneous infusions (1.12 IU/h each) of 125 I-labeled Actrapid insulin in each side of the abdominal wall. After 24 h of infusion, the size of the infused insulin depots was measured by external counting for 5 h. The basal infusion rate was then doubled in one side and halved in the other for the next 4 h. Finally, 1.12 IU/h of insulin was given in both sides of the abdominal wall for an additional 3 h. The changes in the size of the depots were measured, and the absorption rates for each hour were calculated. During the first 5 h of infusion, the depot size was almost constant (approximately 5 IU) with an absorption rate that equaled the infusion rate. Doubling the infusion rate led to a significant increase in depot size, but the absorption rate remained unchanged for the first 3 h, and only thereafter was a significant increase seen. When the infusion rate was reduced to the initial 1.12 IU/h, the absorption rate remained elevated during the next 3 h. Correspondingly, when the infusion rate was decreased, the depot size also decreased, but the absorption rate remained unchanged for the first 3 h. The results show that a change in the basal insulin infusion rate does not lead to any immediate change in the insulin absorption rate. This should be considered when planning an insulin-infusion program that includes alteration(s) in the basal-rate setting

Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

2014-01-01

the relative sea level data. Similar independent data do not exist for ancient times. The purpose of this study is to test two simple inversion approaches for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates for ancient times in areas where a dense coverage of relative...... sea level data exists and well-constrained average lithospheric movement values are known from, for example glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The inversion approaches are tested and used for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates in southwest...... Scandinavia from modern relative sea level data series that cover the period from 1900 to 2000. In both approaches, a priori information is required to solve the inverse problem. A priori information about the average vertical lithospheric movement in the area of interest is critical for the quality...

Stress Field Variation after the 2001 Skyros Earthquake, Greece, Derived from Seismicity Rate Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Leptokaropoulos, K.; Papadimitriou, E.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Karakostas, V.

2012-04-01

the model performance and robustness to be evaluated. Simulations will provide a measure of how robust is the use of seismicity rate changes as a stress meter for both positive and negative stress steps. This work was partially prepared within the framework of the research projects No. N N307234937 and 3935/B/T02/2010/39 financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of Poland during the period 2009 to 2011 and 2010 to 2012, respectively.

Weight and body composition change over a six-week holiday period.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, D R; Larson, J N; Wengreen, H

2012-03-01

Change in weight and body composition was assessed over a six-week holiday period. Baseline testing occurred the Monday or Tuesday prior to Thanksgiving Day (November 24 or 25, 2008), and the post-holiday assessment was the Monday or Tuesday after New Year's Day (January 5 or 6, 2009). Thirteen men and 21 women ranging in age from 23-61 years completed the study. The majority of participants (24 of 34) perceived that they had gained weight, and four did gain ≥2 kg. However, despite some changes to dietary and exercise habits, on average there was no difference between pre-holiday weight (74.0±17.8 kg) and post-holiday weight (73.9±18.1 kg), nor between pre-holiday body fat percentage (25.4±9.0%) and post-holiday body fat percentage (25.4±8.9%). Despite a perception of substantial weight gain, body weight and body fat remained unchanged over a six-week holiday period.

Influence Of Summer Season On Some Biochemical And Hormonal Changes In Crossbred Cows During Suckling Period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teama, F.E.I.; Gad, A.E.

2012-01-01

According to the seasonal variations in environmental conditions in post-partum cows, some biochemical and physiological changes which affect the productive efficiency of farm animals may occur. This study was conducted in the bovine farm of Experimental Farms Project of Nuclear Research Centre, Atomic Energy Authority, Inshas, Egypt, to evaluate some blood biochemical and some hormonal changes during the suckling period in crossbred cows under winter and summer conditions. Alterations in metabolites and metabolic hormones during the first 10 weeks post-partum in both winter and summer during a period of suckling were analyzed on a total of 13 crossbred (Brown Swiss X Balady) cows (winter, n=7; summer, n=6). The blood samples were taken at 2 weeks intervals, 5 times in each season to determine the concentrations and changes in glucose, urea, total cholesterol, total proteins and some hormones including leptin, T4 and progesterone (P4) under winter and summer conditions. The data indicated that total protein (P<0.01), glucose (P<0.05), leptin (P<0.01), total cholesterol (P<0.01), and T4 (P<0.01) had significant seasonal differences between the two calving groups. A positive correlation coefficient was observed between leptin and T4 hormone. From the obtained data, it could be concluded that in summer season, certain biochemical and hormonal levels of calving cows may enhanced but not enough to affect the levels of urea and progesterone. The positive correlation between leptin and T4 may indicate association in the rate of metabolism.

Effect of aeration rate, moisture content and composting period on availability of copper and lead during pig manure composting.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yujun; Zhao, Lixin; Meng, Haibo; Hou, Yueqing; Zhou, Haibin; Wang, Fei; Cheng, Hongsheng; Liu, Hongbin

2016-06-01

Pollution by heavy metals, such as copper and lead, has become a limiting factor for the land application of faecal manures, such as pig manure. This study was conducted to investigate the influence of composting process parameters, including aeration rate, moisture content and composting period, on the distribution of heavy metal species during composting, and to select an optimal parameter for copper and lead inactivation. Results showed that the distribution ratios of exchangeable fractions of copper and lead had a bigger decrease under conditions of aeration rate, 0.1 m(3) min(-1) m(-3), an initial moisture content of 65% and composting period of 50 days. Suboptimal composting process conditions could lead to increased availability of heavy metals. Statistical analysis indicated that the aeration rate was the main factor affecting copper and lead inactivation, while the effects of moisture content and composting period were not significant. The rates of reduction of copper-exchangeable fractions and lead-exchangeable fractions were positively correlated with increased pH. The optimal parameters for reducing heavy metal bioavailability during pig manure composting were aeration rate, 0.1 m(3) min(-1) m(-3), initial moisture content, 65%, and composting period, 20 days. © The Author(s) 2016.

47 CFR 43.43 - Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reports of proposed changes in depreciation... Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates. (a) Each communication common carrier with annual..., before making any changes in the depreciation rates applicable to its operated plant, file with the...

47 CFR 1.787 - Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reports of proposed changes in depreciation... Reports and Requests § 1.787 Reports of proposed changes in depreciation rates. Carriers shall file reports regarding proposed changes in depreciation rates as required by part 43 of this chapter. ...

Orbital period changes in RW CrA, DX Vel and V0646 Cen

Science.gov (United States)

Volkov, I. M.; Chochol, D.; Grygar, J.; Mašek, M.; Juryšek, J.

2017-06-01

We aim to determine the absolute parameters of the components of southern Algol-type binaries with deep eclipses RW CrA, DX Vel, V0646 Cen and interpret their orbital period changes. The data analysis is based on a high quality Walraven photoelectric photometry, obtained in the 1960-70s, our recent CCD photometry, ASAS (Pojmanski, 2002), and Hipparcos (Perryman et al., 1997) photometry of the objects. Their light curves were analyzed using the PHOEBE program with fixed effective temperatures of the primary components, found from disentangling the Walraven (B-U) and (V-B) colour indices. We found the absolute parameters of the components of all three objects. All reliable observed times of minimum light were used to construct and analyze the Eclipse Time Variation (ETV) diagrams. We interpreted the ETV diagrams of the detached binary RW CrA and the semi-detached binary DX Vel by a LIght-Time Effect (LITE), estimated parameters of their orbits and masses of their third bodies. We suggest a long term variation of the inclination angle of both eclipsing binaries, caused by a non-coplanar orientation of their third body orbits. We interpreted the detected orbital period increase in the semi-detached binary V0646 Cen by a mass transfer from the less to more massive component with the rate M⊙ = 6.08×10-9 M⊙/yr.

18 CFR 342.4 - Other rate changing methodologies.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Other rate changing methodologies. 342.4 Section 342.4 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... regard to the applicable ceiling level under § 342.3. (b) Market-based rates. A carrier may attempt to...

Study of foetal heart rate patterns in pregnancy with intra-uterine growth restriction during antepartum period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fardiazar, Z.; Abassalizade, F.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To evaluate foetal heart rate pattern during antepartum period in pregnancies suffering from intra-uterine growth restriction. Methods: The case control study was conducted at the Alzahra Hospital, Tabriz, Iran from April 2008 to April 2011. It comprised 100 pregnancies with intra-uterine growth restriction and 92 normal pregnancies. The foetal heart rate pattern including basal heart rate, beat-to-beat variation, non-stress test (NST) result and acceleration and deceleration patterns of the heart rate were determined in both groups during the antepartum period. Findings were compared between the two groups and their relation with pregnancy-foetal outcomes was specified in the case group. SPSS 15 was used for statistical analysis. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the foetus mean basal heart rate in the two groups (p <0.960). Frequency of cases with non-reactive non-stress test in the Cases was significantly higher than Controls (p <0.005). The difference in heart rate acceleration was also not statistically significant (p <0.618). Frequency of cases with low birth weight and caesarian was non-significantly but borderline higher among the Cases (p <0.081 and 0.060, respectively). Conclusion: Abnormal foetal heart rate pattern is more common in pregnancies marked by intra-uterine growth restriction and is directly associated with worse pregnancy/foetal outcomes. (author)

Features of the heart rate variability in the perioperative period after adenotomy in children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Михайло Борисович Пушкар

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Aim. Study course of perioperative period after adenotomy in children in different ways of general anesthesia by examining indicators of heart rate variability and efficacy of postoperative analgesia.Materials and methods. To study included 70 children aged from 6 to 8 years, which was held adenotomy. Patients were divided into 3 groups: group I (n = 28 - operated under conditions of intravenous anesthesia based on propofol combined with fentanyl; group II (n=23 – operated under conditions of inhalation anesthesia by sevoflurane in combination with fentanyl and analginum; group III (n=19 – operated under conditions of intravenous anesthesia based on thiopental sodium combined with fentanyl. Differences were considered significant at p <0.05 using Student t-test.Results. Indicators of heart rate variability indicated that in the extubation stage in all groups of patients revealed high activity of the sympathetic tone with the trend of decline in the morning after surgery. Statistically higher activity of the sympathetic part of the autonomic nervous system was in patients of group III - 1 hour after surgery compared with patients groups I and II (p <0,001 and p <0,01, respectively. After 1 hour after surgery on the scales "Faces" and "Oucher" scores indicated that the child "a little hurt" in all groups of patients In the dynamics of observation in all groups tended to reduce the intensity of pain. An interpretation of scores on the FLACC scale indicated that patients in both groups felt comfortable.Conclusions. It was found that in patients in all groups there are changes in the nervous regulation of heart rate variability, characterized by increased activity of the sympathetic division of the autonomic nervous system. Postoperative anesthesia by 10 mg / kg ibuprofen provides effective analgesia

Alcohol policy enforcement and changes in student drinking rates in a statewide public college system: a follow-up study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harris Sion K

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Heavy alcohol use among U.S. college students is a major contributor to young adult morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to examine whether college alcohol policy enforcement levels predict changes in student drinking and related behaviors in a state system of public colleges and universities, following a system-wide change to a stricter policy. Methods Students and administrators at 11 Massachusetts public colleges/universities completed surveys in 1999 (N of students = 1252, one year after the policy change, and again in 2001 (N = 1074. We calculated policy enforcement scores for each school based on the reports of deans of students, campus security chiefs, and students, and examined the correlations between perceived enforcement levels and the change in student drinking rates over the subsequent two year period, after weighting the 2001 data to adjust for demographic changes in the student body. Results Overall rates of any past-30-days drinking, heavy episodic drinking, and usual heavy drinking among past-30-days drinkers were all lower in 2001 compared to 1999. School-level analyses (N = 11 found deans' baseline reports of stricter enforcement were strongly correlated with subsequent declines in heavy episodic drinking (Pearson's r = -0.73, p = 0.011. Moreover, consistently high enforcement levels across time, as reported by deans, were associated with greater declines in heavy episodic drinking. Such relationships were not found for students' and security chiefs' reports of enforcement. Marijuana use did not rise during this period of decline in heavy drinking. Conclusions Study findings suggest that stronger enforcement of a stricter alcohol policy may be associated with reductions in student heavy drinking rates over time. An aggressive enforcement stance by deans may be an important element of an effective college alcohol policy.

Changes in VAT rates during the economic crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Široký

2011-01-01

Full Text Available To solve the current economical crisis, there are used various tools of economic policy. Some of them are changes in taxes, particularly changes in the value added tax due to its importance.Value added tax is the most harmonized tax in the single internal market of the European Communities. Although community law defines the basic legal constraints of VAT rules in individual countries, the Council Directive 2006/112/EC on the common system of value added tax, as amended, leaves some areas open for the Member States. One of the main characteristics of VAT is its tax rates which are – while maintaining specified minimal borders – in competency of Member States.Paper illustrates and evaluates the changes in tax rates of individual Member States during the economic crisis and points to their context and consequences.

Summit CO2 emission rates by the CO2/SO2 ratio method at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, during a period of sustained inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Hager, S.A.; Gerlach, T.M.; Wallace, P.J.

2008-01-01

The emission rate of carbon dioxide escaping from the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, proved highly variable, averaging 4900 ± 2000 metric tons per day (t/d) in June–July 2003 during a period of summit inflation. These results were obtained by combining over 90 measurements of COSPEC-derived SO2emission rates with synchronous CO2/SO2 ratios of the volcanic gas plume along the summit COSPEC traverse. The results are lower than the CO2 emission rate of 8500 ± 300 t/d measured by the same method in 1995–1999 during a period of long-term summit deflation [Gerlach, T.M., McGee, K.A., Elias, T., Sutton, A.J. and Doukas, M.P., 2002. Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kīlauea Volcano: Implications for primary magma and the summit reservoir. Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, 107(B9): art. no.-2189.]. Analysis of the data indicates that the emission rates of the present study likely reflect changes in the magma supply rate and residence time in the summit reservoir. It is also likely that emission rates during the inflation period were heavily influenced by SO2 pulses emitted adjacent to the COSPEC traverse, which biased CO2/SO2 ratios towards low values that may be unrepresentative of the global summit gas plume. We conclude that the SO2 pulses are consequences of summit re-inflation under way since 2003 and that CO2 emission rates remain comparable to, but more variable than, those measured prior to re-inflation.

Telemetry pill versus rectal and esophageal temperature during extreme rates of exercise-induced core temperature change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teunissen, L P J; Daanen, H A M; De Haan, A; De Koning, J J

2012-01-01

Core temperature measurement with an ingestible telemetry pill has been scarcely investigated during extreme rates of temperature change, induced by short high-intensity exercise in the heat. Therefore, nine participants performed a protocol of rest, (sub)maximal cycling and recovery at 30 °C. The pill temperature (T pill ) was compared with the rectal temperature (T re ) and esophageal temperature (T es ). T pill corresponded well to T re during the entire trial, but deviated considerably from T es during the exercise and recovery periods. During maximal exercise, the average ΔT pill −T re and ΔT pill −T es were 0.13 ± 0.26 and −0.57 ± 0.53 °C, respectively. The response time from the start of exercise, the rate of change during exercise and the peak temperature were similar for T pill and T re. T es responded 5 min earlier, increased more than twice as fast and its peak value was 0.42 ± 0.46 °C higher than T pill . In conclusion, also during considerable temperature changes at a very high rate, T pill is still a representative of T re . The extent of the deviation in the pattern and peak values between T pill and T es (up to >1 °C) strengthens the assumption that T pill is unsuited to evaluate central blood temperature when body temperatures change rapidly. (paper)

Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

Comments to "Analysis of constant rate period of spray drying of slurry" by Liang et al., 2001

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kåre; Jensen, Anker Degn; Sloth, Jakob

2006-01-01

In the study by Liang et al. [2001. Analysis of constant rate period of spray drying of slurry. Chemical Engineering Science 56, 2205-2213] the Darcy flow of liquid through a pore system of primary particles to the surface of a slurry droplet was applied for the constant rate period. Steep primary...... particle concentration gradients inside -25 mu m droplets with a primary particle size of 0.2 mu m were observed. Unfortunately, the boundary condition at the droplet surface for the parabolic second-order PDE did not conserve the solid mass in the droplet, and the plots for the primary particle...

Mortality rate of gastric cancer in the population of Belgrade for 1990-2002 period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šipetić Sandra B.

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Worldwide, gastric cancer is the fourth leading cause of diseases, and the second leading cause of cancer deaths. Aim. To analyze the differences between men and women in mortality rate of gastric cancer in Belgrade from 1990−2002. Methods. Mortality rates standardized directly to the „World population“, and regression analysis were used. Results. In Belgrade population, 29.2% out the total number of deaths attributable to cancer were caused by gastric cancer. Gastric cancer was the second most common cause of death among digestive tract cancers. In women, in the period between 1990 and 1993, an average annual decline of mortality was 9.0% (95% confidence interval (CI = 5.9−13.1, and between 1994 and 2002, an average annual increase was 10.3% (CI = 8.4−12.6. Mortality rate series of gastric cancer in men did not fit any of the usual trend functions. The male/female gastric cancer mortality ratio was 1.7 : 1. Mortality rates for gastric cancer rose with age in both sexes and they were highest in the age group of 70 and more years. From 1990−2002, in both sexes aged 70 years and more, mortality from gastric cancer rose by 67.2% (CI = 58.0−76.4 in men and by 69.6% (CI = 60.6−78.6 in women. During the same period, the death rates in men decreased by 75.9 % (CI = 67.5−84.4 in the age group of 30−39 years, and by 48.1% (CI = 38.4−57.9 in women aged 50−59 years. In both sexes mortality rate series of all other age groups did not fit any of the usual trend functions. Conclusions. The increase in mortality rate of gastric in women over the past few years, showed the necessity of instituting primary and secondary preventive measures.

Perfluoroalkyl substances and changes in body weight and resting metabolic rate in response to weight-loss diets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Gang; Dhana, Klodian; Furtado, Jeremy D

2018-01-01

in body weight and resting metabolic rate (RMR) in a diet-induced weight-loss setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the 2-year POUNDS Lost randomized clinical trial based in Boston, Massachusetts, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, that examined the effects of energy-restricted diets on weight changes, baseline...... and 24 months. Participants lost an average of 6.4 kg of body weight during the first 6 months (weight-loss period) and subsequently regained an average of 2.7 kg of body weight during the period of 6-24 months (weight regain period). After multivariate adjustment, baseline PFAS concentrations were...... not significantly associated with concurrent body weight or weight loss during the first 6 months. In contrast, higher baseline levels of PFASs were significantly associated with a greater weight regain, primarily in women. In women, comparing the highest to the lowest tertiles of PFAS concentrations...

How Does the PAC Respond to Changes in the Payment Rate

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — How Does the Volume of Post-Acute Care Respond to Changes in the Payment Rate Measure the effect of changes from 1997 to 2001 in Medicares payment rates for skilled...

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Sadoun, Eman; Al-Thani, Al-Anoud; Khalifa, Shamseldin A; Sayegh, Suzan; Badawi, Alaa

2014-12-01

Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics and recent changes in disease-related mortality rates among Qatari nationals. The present study examines the population structure/dynamics and the related changes in the cause-specific mortality rates and disease prevalence in the Qatari nationals. This is a retrospective, analytic descriptive analysis covering a period of 5years (2007-2011) and utilizes a range of data sources from the State of Qatar including the population structure, disease-related mortality rates, and the prevalence of a range of chronic and infectious diseases. Factors reflecting population dynamics such as crude death (CDR), crude birth (CBR), total fertility (TFR) and infant mortality (IMR) rates were also calculated. The Qatari nationals is an expansive population with an annual growth rate of ∼4% and a stable male:female ratio. The CDR declined by 15% within the study period, whereas the CBR was almost stable. The total disease-specific death rate, however, was decreased among the Qatari nationals by 23% due to the decline in mortality rates attributed to diseases of the blood and immune system (43%), nervous system (44%) and cardiovascular system (41%). There was a high prevalence of a range of chronic diseases, whereas very low frequencies of the infectious diseases within the study population. Public health strategies, approaches and programs developed to reduce disease burden and the related death, should be tailored to target the population of Qatari nationals which exhibits characteristics that vary from

Proteomics approach reveals mechanism underlying susceptibility of loquat fruit to sunburn during color changing period.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ji-Mou; Lin, Yong-Xiang; Chen, Yi-Yong; Deng, Chao-Jun; Gong, Hui-Wen; Xu, Qi-Zhi; Zheng, Shao-Quan; Chen, Wei

2015-06-01

The objective of this work was to investigate why loquat fruit peels are more sensitive to high temperature and strong sunlight, making them highly susceptible to sunburn, during the color changing period (CCP). Two dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) of the fruit peel proteins was performed over three developmental periods, namely green fruit period (GFP), color changing period and yellow ripening period (YRP). Fifty-five protein spots with at least 2-fold differences in abundance were successfully identified by MALDI-TOF-TOF/MS. The identified proteins were divided into categories related to heat-shock response, stress response and defense, energy metabolism, photosynthesis and protein biosynthesis. The results showed that expression of proteins related to anaerobic respiration and photorespiration were increased while the proteins related to ROS scavenging, polyamine biosynthesis, defense pathogens and photosynthesis were decreased during CCP under heat stress. Our findings provide new insights into the molecular mechanism of loquat fruit susceptible to sunburn during CCP. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jezkova, Tereza

2016-01-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748

What drives credit rating changes? : a return decomposition approach

OpenAIRE

Cho, Hyungjin; Choi, Sun Hwa

2015-01-01

This paper examines the relative importance of a shock to expected cash flows (i.e., cash-flow news) and a shock to expected discount rates (i.e., discount-rate news) in credit rating changes. Specifically, we use a Vector Autoregressive model to implement the return decomposition of Campbell and Shiller (Review of Financial Studies, 1, 1988, 195) and Vuolteenaho (Journal of Finance, 57, 2002, 233) to extract cash-flow news and discount-rate news from stock returns at the firm-level. We find ...

Changes in effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1981-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Y.; Wu, S.; Zhao, D.

2013-12-01

Observed evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, actual evapotranspiration trends and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are poorly understood. We analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in potential evapotranspiration(PET), actual evapotranspiration(AET) and effective moisture (defined as AET/PET) during 1981-2010. Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981-2010. New plant functional types were defined for the Tibetan Plateau and evapotranspiration is simulated by the modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). The results show regional trends towards decreasing PET and statistically significant increases in AET (p < 0.05) and effective moisture (p < 0.001) during the period 1981-2010. A transition from significant negative to positive PET occurred in 1997. Additionally, a pronounced increase in effective moisture occurred during the period 1981-1997 because of significant decreased PET before 1997.

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang Fengzhong; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2010-01-01

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T) -Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n ' (|t-T|) of 'preshocks' before the interest-rate change at time T. This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the 'sign effect', in which 'bad news' has a larger impact than 'good news'. Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a 'market under-reaction' that lasts at least one trading day.

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Alexander M; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

2010-06-01

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)∼(t-T)(-Ω) , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of "preshocks" before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the "sign effect," in which "bad news" has a larger impact than "good news." Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a "market under-reaction" that lasts at least one trading day.

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Alexander M.; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2010-06-01

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Commission meetings and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analog of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest-rate change at time T and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T)˜(t-T)-Ω , with Ω positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of “preshocks” before the interest-rate change at time T . This study quantitatively relates the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and uncovers the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest-rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U.S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds effective rate. Our results are consistent with the “sign effect,” in which “bad news” has a larger impact than “good news.” Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a “market under-reaction” that lasts at least one trading day.

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

Science.gov (United States)

King, Andrew D.

2017-11-01

Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

A neural circuit transforming temporal periodicity information into a rate-based representation in the mammalian auditory system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dicke, Ulrike; Ewert, Stephan D.; Dau, Torsten

2007-01-01

Periodic amplitude modulations AMs of an acoustic stimulus are presumed to be encoded in temporal activity patterns of neurons in the cochlear nucleus. Physiological recordings indicate that this temporal AM code is transformed into a rate-based periodicity code along the ascending auditory pathw...... accounts for the encoding of AM depth over a large dynamic range and for modulation frequency selective processing of complex sounds....

Novel approach for evaluation of air change rate in naturally ventilated occupied spaces based on metabolic CO2 time variation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Markov, Detelin G.

2014-01-01

IAQ in many residential buildings relies on non-organized natural ventilation. Accurate evaluation of air change rate (ACR) in this situation is difficult due to the nature of the phenomenon - intermittent infiltration-exfiltration periods of mass exchange between the room air and the outdoor air...... at low rate. This paper describes a new approach for ACR evaluation in naturally ventilated occupied spaces. Actual metabolic CO2 time variation record in an interval of time is compared with the computed variation of metabolic CO2 for the same time interval under reference conditions: sleeping occupants...

Will Changes to Medicare Payment Rates Alter Hospice's Cost-Saving Ability?

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Donald H; Bhavsar, Nrupen A; Bull, Janet H; Kassner, Cordt T; Olson, Andrew; Boucher, Nathan A

2018-05-01

On January 1, 2016, Medicare implemented a new "two-tiered" model for hospice services, with per diem rates increased for days 1 through 60, decreased for days 61 and greater, and service intensity add-on payments made retrospectively for the last seven days of life. To estimate whether the Medicare hospice benefit's potential for cost savings will change as a result of the January 2016 change in payment structure. Analysis of decedents' claims records using propensity score matching, logistic regression, and sensitivity analysis. All age-eligible Medicare decedents who received care and died in North Carolina in calendar years 2009 and 2010. Costs to Medicare for hospice and other healthcare services. Medicare costs were reduced from hospice election until death using both 2009-2010 and new 2016 payment structures and rates. Mean cost savings were $1,527 with actual payment rates, and would have been $2,105 with the new payment rates (p payment rate change. Cost savings were found for all primary diagnoses analyzed except dementia.

Detectability of changes in cosmic-ray counting rate measured with the Liulin detector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malusek, A.; Kubancak, J.; Ambrozova, I.

2011-05-01

Experimental data are needed to improve and validate models predicting the dynamics of solar particle events because the mechanisms of processes leading to the acceleration of solar energetic particles are not yet fully understood. The aim of this work was to examine whether the spectrometer of deposited energy, Liulin, positioned at the Lomnický štít mountain observatory can collect such data. Decision thresholds and detection limits for the increase or decrease in the average number of particles detected by Liulin were determined for a period in February 2011. The changes in counts corresponding to the decision thresholds and detection limits relative to the average number of detected particles were about 17% and 33%, respectively. The Forbush decrease with a maximum change of about 6.8%, which started on February 18, was detectable neither during the 10-minute acquisition time nor during any other, longer period. Statistical analysis showed that an acquisition time about 7 hours would be needed to detect a 5% decrease. As this time was shorter than the duration of the Forbush decrease (about 56 hours), we theorize that the current placement of the Liulin detector inside a living room shielded by a thick concrete ceiling may have had an adverse impact on the detectability of the the cosmic ray counting rate decrease. To test this hypothesis, we recommend positioning the Liulin detector outside the main observatory building.. (author)

Analysis of the change of period and the photometry of the minima of the eclipsing binary system TX Ursae Maioris

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kreiner, J.M.; Tremko, J.

1980-01-01

Changes were investigated in the shape of the light curve of the close binary TX Ursae Maioris in the vicinity of the primary minimum and changes in the period were analysed. It was proved that the change in the shape of the light curve was asymmetric and the effect on determining the minimum epoch was established. The hypothesis of the existence of the effect of the rotation of the line of apsides was disproved. It was found that processes leading to a change in the period occurred at least three times. In the first approximation the values of the periods in all intervals are constant. The run of the last change indicates that it did not occur suddenly but over a period of several years. The light changes during the recent period can be expressed by a linear ephemeris derived from the photoelectric epochs of the minimum. (author)

Association of Changing Hospital Readmission Rates With Mortality Rates After Hospital Discharge

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yongfei; Lin, Zhenqiu; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Ross, Joseph S.; Horwitz, Leora I.; Desai, Nihar R.; Suter, Lisa G.; Drye, Elizabeth E.; Bernheim, Susannah M.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2017-01-01

Importance The Affordable Care Act has led to US national reductions in hospital 30-day readmission rates for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia. Whether readmission reductions have had the unintended consequence of increasing mortality after hospitalization is unknown. Objective To examine the correlation of paired trends in hospital 30-day readmission rates and hospital 30-day mortality rates after discharge. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older hospitalized with HF, AMI, or pneumonia from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2014. Exposure Thirty-day risk-adjusted readmission rate (RARR). Main Outcomes and Measures Thirty-day RARRs and 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) after discharge were calculated for each condition in each month at each hospital in 2008 through 2014. Monthly trends in each hospital’s 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were examined for each condition. The weighted Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated for hospitals’ paired monthly trends in 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge for each condition. Results In 2008 through 2014, 2 962 554 hospitalizations for HF, 1 229 939 for AMI, and 2 544 530 for pneumonia were identified at 5016, 4772, and 5057 hospitals, respectively. In January 2008, mean hospital 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge were 24.6% and 8.4% for HF, 19.3% and 7.6% for AMI, and 18.3% and 8.5% for pneumonia. Hospital 30-day RARRs declined in the aggregate across hospitals from 2008 through 2014; monthly changes in RARRs were −0.053% (95% CI, −0.055% to −0.051%) for HF, −0.044% (95% CI, −0.047% to −0.041%) for AMI, and −0.033% (95% CI, −0.035% to −0.031%) for pneumonia. In contrast, monthly aggregate changes across hospitals in hospital 30-day RAMRs after discharge varied by condition: HF, 0.008% (95% CI, 0.007% to 0.010%); AMI, −0

Affective changes during the postpartum period: Influences of genetic and experiential factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Agrati, Daniella; Lonstein, Joseph S

2016-01-01

This article is part of a Special Issue "Parental Care". The postpartum period involves some truly transformational changes in females' socioemotional behaviors. For most female laboratory rodents and women, these changes include an improvement in their affective state, which has positive consequences for their ability to sensitively care for their offspring. There is heterogeneity among females in the likelihood of this positive affective change, though, and some women experience elevated anxiety or depression (or in rodents anxiety- or depression-related behaviors) after giving birth. We aim to contribute to the understanding of this heterogeneity in maternal affectivity by reviewing selected components of the scientific literatures on laboratory rodents and humans examining how mothers' physical contact with her infants, genetics, history of anxiety and depression and early-life and recent-life experiences contribute to individual differences in postpartum affective states. These studies together indicate that multiple biological and environmental factors beyond female maternal state shape affective responses during the postpartum period, and probably do so in an interactive manner. Furthermore, the similar capacity of some of these factors to modulate anxiety and depression in human and rodent mothers suggests cross-species conservation of mechanisms regulating postpartum affectivity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heart rate variability biofeedback intervention for reduction of psychological stress during the early postpartum period.

Science.gov (United States)

Kudo, Naoko; Shinohara, Hitomi; Kodama, Hideya

2014-12-01

This study examined the effectiveness of heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback intervention for reduction of psychological stress in women in the early postpartum period. On postpartum day 4, 55 healthy subjects received a brief explanation about HRV biofeedback using a portable device. Among them, 25 mothers who agreed to implement HRV biofeedback at home were grouped as the biofeedback group, and other 30 mothers were grouped as the control group. At 1 month postpartum, there was a significant decrease in total Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale score (P biofeedback group; this change was brought about mainly by decreases in items related to anxiety or difficulty sleeping. There was also a significant increase in standard deviation of the normal heartbeat interval (P biofeedback group after adjusting for potential covariates. In conclusion, postpartum women who implemented HRV biofeedback after delivery were relatively free from anxiety and complained less of difficulties sleeping at 1 month postpartum. Although the positive effects of HRV biofeedback may be partly attributable to intervention effects, due to its clinical outcome, HRV biofeedback appears to be recommendable for many postpartum women as a feasible health-promoting measure after childbirth.

Reinforcer magnitude and rate dependency: evaluation of resistance-to-change mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinkston, Jonathan W; Ginsburg, Brett C; Lamb, Richard J

2014-10-01

Under many circumstances, reinforcer magnitude appears to modulate the rate-dependent effects of drugs such that when schedules arrange for relatively larger reinforcer magnitudes rate dependency is attenuated compared with behavior maintained by smaller magnitudes. The current literature on resistance to change suggests that increased reinforcer density strengthens operant behavior, and such strengthening effects appear to extend to the temporal control of behavior. As rate dependency may be understood as a loss of temporal control, the effects of reinforcer magnitude on rate dependency may be due to increased resistance to disruption of temporally controlled behavior. In the present experiments, pigeons earned different magnitudes of grain during signaled components of a multiple FI schedule. Three drugs, clonidine, haloperidol, and morphine, were examined. All three decreased overall rates of key pecking; however, only the effects of clonidine were attenuated as reinforcer magnitude increased. An analysis of within-interval performance found rate-dependent effects for clonidine and morphine; however, these effects were not modulated by reinforcer magnitude. In addition, we included prefeeding and extinction conditions, standard tests used to measure resistance to change. In general, rate-decreasing effects of prefeeding and extinction were attenuated by increasing reinforcer magnitudes. Rate-dependent analyses of prefeeding showed rate-dependency following those tests, but in no case were these effects modulated by reinforcer magnitude. The results suggest that a resistance-to-change interpretation of the effects of reinforcer magnitude on rate dependency is not viable.

7 CFR 1951.241 - Special provision for interest rate change.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Special provision for interest rate change. 1951.241... Community and Direct Business Programs Loans and Grants § 1951.241 Special provision for interest rate... interest rate charged by FmHA or its successor agency under Public Law 103-354 to water and waste disposal...

Response of MnBi-Bi eutectic to freezing rate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Nair, M.; Fu, T.-W.; Wilcox, W. R.; Doddi, K.; Ravishankar, P. S.; Larson, D.

1982-01-01

Reference is made to a study by Fu and Wilcox (1981), which treated theoretically the influence on freezing rate of sudden changes in translation rate in the Bridgman-Stockbarger technique. This treatment is extended here to a linear ramped translation rate and an oscillatory freezing rate. It is found that oscillations above a few hertz are highly damped in small-diameter apparatus. An experimental test is carried out of the theoretical predictions for a sudden change of translation rate. The MnBi-Bi eutectic is solidified with current-induced interface demarcation. The experimental results accord reasonably well with theory if the silica ampoule wall is assumed to either (1) contribute only a resistance to heat exchange between the sample and the furnace wall or (2) transmit heat effectively in the axial direction by radiation. In an attempt to explain the fact that a finer microstructure is obtained in space, MnBi-Bi microstructure is determined when the freezing rate is increased or decreased rapidly. Preliminary results suggest that fiber branching does not occur as readily as fiber termination.

Evaluation of pneumococcal vaccination rates after vaccine protocol changes and nurse education in a tertiary care teaching hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jennifer G; Metzger, Nicole L

2011-11-01

criteria included aged 65 years or older, admitting diagnosis of pneumonia, at least 1 of several chronic diseases, immunocompromising condition, cochlear implant, cerebrospinal fluid leak, current tobacco smoking, pregnancy or having a child in the home less than aged 6 months, or awaiting solid organ transplantation. Patients who had vaccine contraindications/precautions or had been vaccinated in the previous 5 years were ineligible. Data on demographics, presence of vaccine screening, indication, administration, rescheduling, and refusal were collected. The primary endpoint was the rate of pneumococcal vaccine administration in eligible medicine patients. Secondary endpoints included changes in screening rates, vaccine refusal, and order rescheduling. Descriptive statistics and Student's t-test were used to evaluate patient demographic data. Pearson chi-square was used to compare the pre- and post-implementation periods. The rate of pneumococcal vaccine administration in eligible patients significantly improved post-implementation compared with pre-implementation (74.2% vs. 19.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). Rates of vaccine screening were similar pre-implementation (96.0%) and post-implementation (99.3%, P = 0.056). The rates of vaccine refusal in the pre- and post-implementation periods did not significantly differ (10.6% vs. 22.6%, respectively, P = 0.203). Implementation of vaccine protocol changes was associated with improved pneumococcal vaccination rates in eligible medicine patients. Protocol changes were relatively easy to implement in a large institution, and a similar approach may be implemented at other institutions as an effective way to improve pneumococcal vaccination rates.

7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart A of... - Notice of Change in Interest Rate

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Notice of Change in Interest Rate B Exhibit B to... Interest Rate (insert date) Notice of Change in Interest Rate (insert borrower's address) Re: □ □ Fund code... ___, for the original amount of ___ dollars ($___) provides for a change in interest rate for a limited...

Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

Science.gov (United States)

Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-04-01

Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

Changing trends of indications and rate of cesarean section

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambreen, A.; Intsar, A.; Khurshid, S.

2013-01-01

Background: There is a trend of rising caesarean section rate over the past decade affecting the economy of the country. This continually rising caesarean section rate is of increasing concern to the health professionals and the public This study was designed to assess the indications and trends of caesarean sections done over a five year period from 2007 to 2011. Methods: This was a retrospective observational study done over a five year period in the department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Fatima Memorial Hospital Lahore from 2007 to 2011. Results: Total no of deliveries from 2007 to 2011 were 30741 out of which caesarean sections performed were 13820.The caesarean birth rate increased from 41% to-48%. The indications varied a little in case of mal-presentation and eclampsia. APH and IUGR has risen a little from (from 2.56% to 2.6% and 1.83% to 2.34% respectively). But proportion of repeat caesarean section increased by 25.99% to 31.45% and that of presumed fetal distress increased from 8% to 15% respectively. Recently the indication of maternal choice is emerging with incidence of 0.8% in our study. The proportion has fallen in prolonged labour due to cervical dystocia from 17% to 14% and in obstructed labour from 4.6% to 3%. Conclusion: Individualization of every case, meticulous clinical examination, use of intrapartum fetomaternal survellience along with regular use of partograrm would limit the practice of undue caesarean sections. (author)

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2011-01-01

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Molecular dynamics study on the effect of boundary heating rate on the phase change characteristics of thin film liquid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hasan, Mohammad Nasim, E-mail: nasim@me.buet.ac.bd.com; Morshed, A. K. M. Monjur, E-mail: shavik@me.buet.ac.bd.com; Rabbi, Kazi Fazle, E-mail: rabbi35.me10@gmail.com; Haque, Mominul, E-mail: mominulmarup@gmail.com [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Dhaka-1000 (Bangladesh)

2016-07-12

In this study, theoretical investigation of thin film liquid phase change phenomena under different boundary heating rates has been conducted with the help of molecular dynamics simulation. To do this, the case of argon boiling over a platinum surface has been considered. The study has been conducted to get a better understanding of the nano-scale physics of evaporation/boiling for a three phase system with particular emphasis on the effect of boundary heating rate. The simulation domain consisted of liquid and vapor argon atoms placed over a platinum wall. Initially the whole system was brought to an equilibrium state at 90 K with the help of equilibrium molecular dynamics and then the temperature of the bottom wall was increased to a higher temperature (250 K/130 K) over a finite heating period. Depending on the heating period, the boundary heating rate has been varied in the range of 1600×10{sup 9} K/s to 8×10{sup 9} K/s. The variations of argon region temperature, pressure, net evaporation number with respect to time under different boundary heating rates have been determined and discussed. The heat fluxes normal to platinum wall for different cases were also calculated and compared with theoretical upper limit of maximum possible heat transfer to elucidate the effect of boundary heating rate.

Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp, David B; Eichenseer, Kilian; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2015-11-10

Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10(2) to >10(7) years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

76 FR 396 - Product Change-Priority Mail-Non-Published Rates

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-04

... POSTAL SERVICE Product Change--Priority Mail--Non-Published Rates AGENCY: Postal Service TM . ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Postal Service notice of filing of a request with the Postal Regulatory... States Postal Service Concerning Priority Mail--Non-Published Rates and Notice of Filing Materials Under...

Periodic flow patterns of the magnetic fluid in microchannel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, C.-W.; Cheng, Y.-T.; Tsai, C.-Y.; Chien, J.-H.; Wang, P.-Y.; Chen, P.-H.

2007-01-01

In this study, of interests are the periodic flow patterns of the oil-based magnetic fluid in microchannels. A microfluidic chip is made of poly-dimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and contains cross-shape microchannels. The microchannels are 1000 μm in width and 200 μm in depth. A syringe pump was used to drive the fluids. Periodic flow patterns were seen and the slugs of magnetic fluid and DI water were generated. The operating factors discussed in the present work are the flow rates and the magnetic field. The frequency of generation of the slugs increases with increase in the flow rates. Besides, by settling the permanent magnet around the microchannel, the periods of the slug generation are changed. Different positions of the magnet lead to different periods for generating the slugs. By adjusting operating conditions, to control the frequency and the volume of the slugs is practical

The rate of change of vergence-accommodation conflict affects visual discomfort.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Joohwan; Kane, David; Banks, Martin S

2014-12-01

Stereoscopic (S3D) displays create conflicts between the distance to which the eyes must converge and the distance to which the eyes must accommodate. Such conflicts require the viewer to overcome the normal coupling between vergence and accommodation, and this effort appears to cause viewer discomfort. Vergence-accommodation coupling is driven by the phasic components of the underlying control systems, and those components respond to relatively fast changes in vergence and accommodative stimuli. Given the relationship between phasic changes and vergence-accommodation coupling, we examined how the rate of change in the vergence-accommodation conflict affects viewer discomfort. We used a stereoscopic display that allows independent manipulation of the stimuli to vergence and accommodation. We presented stimuli that simulate natural viewing (i.e., vergence and accommodative stimuli changed together) and stimuli that simulate S3D viewing (i.e., vergence stimulus changes but accommodative stimulus remains fixed). The changes occurred at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.25 Hz. The lowest rate is too slow to stimulate the phasic components while the highest rate is well within the phasic range. The results were consistent with our expectation: somewhat greater discomfort was experienced when stimulus distance changed rapidly, particularly in S3D viewing when the vergence stimulus changed but the accommodative stimulus did not. These results may help in the generation of guidelines for the creation and viewing of stereo content with acceptable viewer comfort.

Influence of the interface on growth rates in AlN/GaN short period superlattices via metal organic vapor phase epitaxy

Science.gov (United States)

Rodak, L. E.; Korakakis, D.

2011-11-01

AlN/GaN short period superlattices are well suited for a number of applications including, but not limited to, digital alloys, intersubband devices, and emitters. In this work, AlN/GaN superlattices with periodicities ranging from 10 to 20 Å have been grown via metal organic vapor phase epitaxy in order to investigate the influence of the interface on the binary alloy growth rates. The GaN growth rate at the interface was observed to decrease with increasing GaN thickness while the AlN growth rate remained constant. This has been attributed to a decrease in the decomposition rate of GaN at the hetero-interface as seen in other III-V hetero-structures.

78 FR 67393 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-12

... Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate...

The rise in caesarean birth rate in Sagamu, Nigeria: reflection of changes in obstetric practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Oladapo, O T; Sotunsa, J O; Sule-Odu, A O

2004-06-01

A retrospective and comparative study of women delivered by caesarean section over two different 3-year periods was conducted at Olabisi Onabanjo University Teaching Hospital, Sagamu, Nigeria. The caesarean section rate (CSR) increased from 10.3% in 1989-1991 to 23.1% in 2000-2003. The most frequent indication in both periods was different: prolonged/obstructed labour (20.0%) in 1989-1991 and antepartum haemorrhage (14.9%) in 2000-2003. Malpresentation, antepartum haemorrhage and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia were responsible for 51.7% of the difference in the CSR recorded between both periods. The CSR rose from 13.3% to 25.0% while the instrumental vaginal delivery (IVD) rate decreased significantly by 11.4% among the nulliparous women between the periods. Increase in CSR can be attributed mainly to reduction in IVD rate and alteration in the management of labour complications and induction policy. Strategies to reduce the CSR should cut across all indications and focus on encouraging instrumental vaginal deliveries, especially among nulliparous women.

47 CFR 76.1603 - Customer service-rate and service changes.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... both subscribers and local franchising authorities before implementing any rate or service change. Such... franchising authority. (e) To the extent the operator is required to provide notice of service and rate..., or franchising authority on the transaction between the operator and the subscriber. Note 1 to § 76...

39 CFR 3010.23 - Calculation of percentage change in rates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... DOMINANT PRODUCTS Rules for Applying the Price Cap § 3010.23 Calculation of percentage change in rates. (a... Postal Service billing determinants. The Postal Service shall make reasonable adjustments to the billing determinants to account for the effects of classification changes such as the introduction, deletion, or...

A multicenter, retrospective chart review study comparing index therapy change rates in open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension patients newly treated with latanoprost or travoprost-Z monotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Fain, Joel M; Kotak, Sameer; Mardekian, Jack; Bacharach, Jason; Edward, Deepak P; Rauchman, Steven; Brevetti, Teresa; Fox, Janet L; Lovelace, Cherie

2011-06-13

Because latanoprost and the original formulation of travoprost that included benzalkonium chloride (BAK) have been shown to be similar with regard to tolerability, we compared initial topical intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering medication change rates in patients newly treated with latanoprost or travoprost-Z monotherapy. At 14 clinical practice sites, medical records were abstracted for patients with a diagnosis of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension and who were ≥40 years of age, had a baseline and at least one follow-up visit, and had no prior history of ocular prostaglandin use. Data regarding demographics, ocular/systemic medical histories, clinical variables, therapy initiations and reasons for changes, adverse events, and resource utilization were recorded from randomly chosen eligible charts. Primary outcomes were rates of and reasons for changing from the initial therapy within six months and across the full study period (1000 days). Data from 900 medical charts (latanoprost, 632; travoprost-Z, 268) were included. For both cohorts, average follow-up was >1 year. Cohorts were similar with regard to age (median ~67 years), gender distribution (>50% female), and diagnosis (~80% with open-angle glaucoma). Within six months, rates of index therapy change for latanoprost versus travoprost-Z were 21.2% (134/632) and 28.7% (77/268), respectively (p = 0.0148); across the full study period, rates were 34.5% (218/632) and 45.2% (121/268), respectively (p = 0.0026). Among those who changed their index therapy, insufficient IOP control was the most commonly reported reason followed by adverse events; hyperemia was the most commonly reported adverse event at index therapy change. In this "real world" study of changes in therapy in patients prescribed initial monotherapy with latanoprost with BAK or travoprost-Z with SofZia, medication changes were common in both treatment groups but statistically significantly more frequent with travoprost-Z.

A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Dermody, B. J.; de Boer, H. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Weber, S. L.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

2012-03-01

We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000-1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and Israel on one side and the Central Mediterranean and Turkey on the other, similar to precipitation anomalies associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in current climate. We find that changes in the position and intensity of the jet stream indicated by our analysis correlate with millennial changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. A model simulation indicates the proxies of climatic humidity used in our analysis were unlikely to be influenced by climatic aridification caused by deforestation during the Roman Period. That finding is supported by an analysis of the distribution of archaeological sites in the Eastern Mediterranean which exhibits no evidence that human habitation distribution changed since ancient times as a result of climatic aridification. Therefore we conclude that changes in climatic humidity over the Mediterranean during the Roman Period were primarily caused by a modification of the jet stream linked to sea surface temperature change in the North Atlantic. Based on our findings, we propose that ocean-atmosphere coupling may have contributed to regulating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity during the period of analysis.

Analysis of changes in the relationship between exchange rates, interest rates, and capital flows before and after the economic crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung-Ho Lee

1999-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships among KRW/USD exchange rate, interest rate, and foreigner’s portfolio investment to Korea before and after the crisis. Our finding is that interest rate and the exchange rate move closely with positive relation after the crisis, which was not the case before the crisis. We also examine cross dependencies among three variables using a multivariate GARCH model and find that all of restricted models such as uni-directional spillovers are firmly rejected over both periods.

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP CREDIT SPREADS RATE OBLIGASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2011-2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Amelda Rizal

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Risiko kebangkrutan merupakan hal yang sangat dihindari oleh setiap investor. Risiko ini berlaku tidak hanya pada sekuritas berupa saham, namun juga berlaku pada obligasi serta turunannya. Sejak krisis global yang terjadi pada tahun 2008, risiko kebangkrutan ini jelas terlihat pada obligasi korporasi dimana risiko ini terhubung dengan risiko pasar dan risiko kredit. Menurut Rizal (2016 harga obligasi dapat dihubungkan langs ung dengan kedua risiko tersebut . R i siko pasar dapat dilihat dari tingkat pengembalian bunga ( rate of return dan tingkat inflasi ( inflation rate , sedangkan representasi dari ri siko kredit merupakan ri siko rentang kredit ( credit Spreads rate , dimana rentang kredit ini sendiri pun kembali terkait dengan pertukaran kurs asing t erhadap rupiah, seperti ri siko pasar tingkat suku bunga ( rate of return dan tingkat inflasi ( inflation rate . Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menga nalisa lebih lanjut mengenai fak tor yang mempengaruhi credit Spreads rate obligasi di Indonesia. Faktor - fakto r tersebut adalah nilai tukar rupiah dan tingkat pengembalian. Nilai tukar antara US Dollar dan Rupiah akan dipakai untuk mewakili nilai tukar rupiah. Untuk tingkat pengembalian bunga yang dipakai adalah suku bunga tetap yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesi a. Obligasi yang diteliti adalah obligasi korporasi pada sector telekomunikasi dengan rentang waktu penelitian antara 2011 - 2015. Hasil yang didapat di dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar Rupiah mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan dan bersif at negatif terhadap Credit Spreads Rate Obligasi di Indonesia periode 2011 - 2015. Sedangkan tingkat suku bunga tidak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap Credit Spreads Rate Obligasi di Indonesia periode 2011 - 2015

Postaccident changes in heath status of the Chornobyl cleanup workers 1986-1987 (period of observation 1988-2012)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzunov, V.O.; Vojchulene, Yu.S.; Domashevs'ka, T.Je.; Khabarova, T.P.; Kortushyin, G.Yi.

2015-01-01

Long-term cohort epidemiological study (period of observation 1988-2012) has been conducted using data of the State Registry of Ukraine of Persons Affected by the Chornobyl Accident. Study cohort - 196,423 males-participants of the Chornobyl recovery operations in 1986-1987. Epidemiological and mathematical- and-statistical methods were used. We have found a dramatic deterioration of the Chornobyl cleanup workers' health due to the growth of wide range of nontumor diseases, especially circulatory, digestive, respiratory, endocrine, genitourinary and nervous system diseases. In postaccident period, disability and mortality have increased significantly due to nontumor diseases. Circulatory diseases make major contribution to the structure of causes of disability and death. When studying the dynamics of nontumor incidence, we have found that in 1988-1992 the highest, throughout postaccident period, rate of mental and behavioral disorders, diseases of the nervous system was mainly due to disorders of the autonomic nervous system. Since 1993-1997, rate of this pathology has significantly reduced and remained stable in subsequent years of observation. Thus, we can assume that in the early postaccident period, stress factor in combination with radiation one had the greatest impact on health of cleanup workers, resulting in the development of other nontumor diseases in the remote postaccident period. The study revealed an evident increase in nontumor incidence, disability and mortality from nontumor diseases among Chornobyl cleanup workers 1986-1987; the highest rate of nontumor incidence was observed 12-21 years after the Chornobyl accident

Comparison of the Success Rates and Haemodynamic Changes of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Comparison of the Success Rates and Haemodynamic Changes of Caudal Block .and Dorsal Penile Nerve Block in Paediatric Day-Case Circumcision. Panda U. Shehu, Abubakar S. Adamu, Samboy Tanimu, Mohammed Tela, Samuelwabada Saniadamu ...

Rates of change of the earth's magnetic field measured by recent analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, C. G. A.; Huang, Qilin

1990-01-01

Typical rates of change of the earth's magnetic field are presented as a function of the earth's spherical harmonics. Harmonics up to the eight degree are analyzed. With the increase in the degree of the harmonics an increase in the relative rate of change can be observed. For higher degrees, the rate of change can be predicted. This enables a differentiation between harmonics originating in the core and harmonics caused by crustal magnetization. The westward drift of the magnetic field depends on the longitudinal gradient of the field. In order to determine the longitudinal motions, harmonics up to degree 20 can be utilized. The average rate of secular acceleration increases with the degree of harmonics from 0.001 deg/sq yr for a dipole term to an average of 0.05 deg/sq yr for degree eight harmonics.

Change in Family Structure and Rates of Violent Juvenile Delinquency

OpenAIRE

Fry, Jeannie A

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the question: Have the changes in family structure in the U.S. become a catalyst for juvenile delinquency? For this research, I use existing statistics for my three independent variables: divorce rates, rate of working mothers with children under age 18, percent female-headed households. My dependent variable, juvenile violent crime rates, is measured using data from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. My control variables consist of the followin...

Medical students' attitude of their success rate in clerkship period in Birjand University of Medical Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Reza Hadjyabady

2002-07-01

Full Text Available Background With regard to accelerated progresses in the world of science and technology, as well as changes in the needs of the society, medical education should be a developing process. One of the main factors that can promote education from a static to a dynamic and effective state is evaluation. Purpose The purpose of the present survey is to determine the rate of success of medical students passing their clerkship in Birjand University of Medical Sciences from their own views of attaining educational goals of Urology Department. Methods The study is descriptive-analytical and has been performed on 50 medical students in Birjand University of Medical Sciences. Having determined the validity as well as the reliability of the question­naires, we used them to collect the data. Results Participants were 37 men (74% and 13 women (26%. T-test demonstrated a significant statical difference between male and female students in practical management of cases in urology ward (p<0.03. significant. Better practical performance was evident when the students take practical approach, in addition to looking and listening. Also, if students used various methods of teaching and learning, they would better manage cases. Conclusion The rate of medical students' success in their clerkship period for educational goals of urology was good. However, providing required facilities for giving instructions on clinical skills such as educational clinical workshops, clinical skill workshops and clinical skills centre, educational films and bed­ side practice under supervision of professors, will promote the fulfilment of educational goals. Key word educational goals, medical students, urology ward

Effects of changes in dietary habits on colorectal cancer incidence in twenty countries from four continents during the period 1971-2002.

Science.gov (United States)

Béjar, Luis M; Gili, Miguel; Infantes, Beatriz; Marcott, Pamela F

2011-10-01

the incidence of colorectal cancer is one of the highest on a global level. Many epidemiological studies have identified risk and protective factors, many of which have a behavioral component and, therefore, are potentially avoidable or subject to modification. This study investigated the incidence rates of colorectal cancer by gender in twenty different countries, taking into account the dietary habits of the habitants of each country. adjusted incidence rates, according to gender, were obtained for each country from the International Agency for Research on Cancer during the period 1971-2002.Annual per capita consumption data of the different dietary variables were obtained for the period 1961-2007 from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated comparing incidence rates according to gender with different dietary variable using ten-year delay intervals. there is an important variation in trends of colorectal cancer incidence worldwide which were found to be related with the dietary habits of each country. based on the trends observed, each country was classified into one of four different situations based on the range of values of their incidence rates and linear trends observed. Due to the potential of primary prevention programs for colorectal cancer and to the delay between changes in the exposure to risk and protective factors and the effects on the incidence of this tumor, the application of legislative and educational measures promoting a healthy diet has become an urgent issue to stop the increasing tendency of colorectal cancer reported worldwide.

Exchange Rate and the PRC Foreign Trade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Izotov D. A.

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The stages of exchange rate regulation and foreign trade systems reforming in PRC during the period 1978-2008 are examined. A quantitative assessment of PRC foreign trade parameters reactions to the currency rate dynamics on the national and regional levels is made. Also the import and export impact of potential exchange rate changes is estimated

Implementation of Online Promethee Method for Poor Family Change Rate Calculation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukito Aji Dhady

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This research has been done online calculation of the rate of poor family change rate by using Preference Ranking Method of Organization Of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE .This system is very useful to monitor poverty in a region as well as for administrative services related to poverty rate. The system consists of computer clients and servers connected via the internet network. Poor family residence data obtained from the government. In addition, survey data are inputted through the client computer in each administrative village and also 23 criteria of input in accordance with the established government. The PROMETHEE method is used to evaluate the value of poverty and its weight is used to determine poverty status. PROMETHEE output can also be used to rank the poverty of the registered population of the server based on the netflow value. The poverty rate is calculated based on the current poverty rate compared to the previous poverty rate. The rate results can be viewed online and real time on the server through numbers and graphs. From the test results can be seen that the system can classify poverty status, calculate the poverty rate change rate and can determine the value and poverty ranking of each population.

Implementation of Online Promethee Method for Poor Family Change Rate Calculation

Science.gov (United States)

Aji, Dhady Lukito; Suryono; Widodo, Catur Edi

2018-02-01

This research has been done online calculation of the rate of poor family change rate by using Preference Ranking Method of Organization Of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) .This system is very useful to monitor poverty in a region as well as for administrative services related to poverty rate. The system consists of computer clients and servers connected via the internet network. Poor family residence data obtained from the government. In addition, survey data are inputted through the client computer in each administrative village and also 23 criteria of input in accordance with the established government. The PROMETHEE method is used to evaluate the value of poverty and its weight is used to determine poverty status. PROMETHEE output can also be used to rank the poverty of the registered population of the server based on the netflow value. The poverty rate is calculated based on the current poverty rate compared to the previous poverty rate. The rate results can be viewed online and real time on the server through numbers and graphs. From the test results can be seen that the system can classify poverty status, calculate the poverty rate change rate and can determine the value and poverty ranking of each population.

77 FR 70182 - Reopening of Nomination Period for Members of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-23

... Nomination Period for Members of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science AGENCY... published a notice announcing the establishment of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural.... ADDRESSES: Send nominations to: Robin O'Malley, Policy and Partnership Coordinator, National Climate Change...

Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

2015-09-14

Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

Networking Technologies and the Rate of Technological Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Mitchell

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Network technology is changing rapidly and those adept at ICT analysis need resolve rate of change issues. Developments in networking now are in the direction of heuristic intelligence. Since about 1980, networking techniques have encouraged combining bits of information with imagination cognitively to improve ideas about reality. ICT enterprise projects utilize networking to sustain requisite imagination. Assumptions and misassuptions of project builders are rationally comprehended as networking sustains creative processes. The monopolization of valuable network techniques influences in the direction of esoteric networking. Data presents that substantial knowledge and networking is now occurring globally. As a netaphor, networking

Wind Magnetic Clouds for the Period 2013 - 2015: Model Fitting, Types, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Other Periods

Science.gov (United States)

Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

2018-04-01

, by about a factor of two compared to that of the Long-term period, indicating many strongly tipped MCs. In 2005, there was a distinct change in variability and average value (viewed at 1/2 year averages) of the duration, MC speed, axial magnetic field strength, axial magnetic flux, and total current to lower values. In the Present period, upstream shocks occur for 43% of the 49 cases; for comparison, the Long-term rate is 56%.

Periodical assessment of genitourinary and gastrointestinal toxicity in patients who underwent prostate low-dose-rate brachytherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Nobumichi; Asakawa, Isao; Anai, Satoshi; Hirayama, Akihide; Hasegawa, Masatoshi; Konishi, Noboru; Fujimoto, Kiyohide

2013-01-01

To compare the periodical incidence rates of genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity in patients who underwent prostate low-dose-rate brachytherapy between the monotherapy group (seed implantation alone) and the boost group (in combination with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT)). A total of 218 patients with a median follow-up of 42.5 months were enrolled. The patients were divided into 2 groups by treatment modality, namely, the monotherapy group (155 patients) and the boost group (63 patients). The periodical incidence rates of GU and GI toxicity were separately evaluated and compared between the monotherapy group and the boost group using the National Cancer Institute - Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. To elucidate an independent factor among clinical and postdosimetric parameters to predict grade 2 or higher GU and GI toxicity in the acute and late phases, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were carried out. Of all patients, 78.0% showed acute GU toxicity, and 7.8% showed acute GI toxicity, while 63.8% showed late GU toxicity, and 21.1% showed late GI toxicity. The incidence rates of late GU and GI toxicity were significantly higher in the boost group. Multivariate analysis showed that the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) before seed implantation was a significant parameter to predict acute GU toxicity, while there were no significant predictive parameters for acute GI toxicity. On the other hand, combination with EBRT was a significant predictive parameter for late GU toxicity, and rectal volume (mL) receiving 100% of the prescribed dose (R100) was a significant predictive parameter for late GI toxicity. The boost group showed higher incidence rates of both GU and GI toxicity. Higher IPSS before seed implantation, combination with EBRT and a higher R100 were significant predictors for acute GU, late GU and late GI toxicity

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

The exchange rate managements in crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s

OpenAIRE

Taguchi, Hiroyuki

2005-01-01

This article examined the exchange rate managements in the crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s. First, we found that the exchange rate flexibility has increased from the pre-crisis period towards the post-crisis period under the “soft peg” regime. Second, we identified a structural change in the factors for determining a reference rate in exchange rate management from the pre-crisis period to the post-crisis period. Third, we found that East Asian countries, in their ...

Integrated mechanisms of anticipation and rate-of-change computations in cortical circuits.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel D Puccini

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Local neocortical circuits are characterized by stereotypical physiological and structural features that subserve generic computational operations. These basic computations of the cortical microcircuit emerge through the interplay of neuronal connectivity, cellular intrinsic properties, and synaptic plasticity dynamics. How these interacting mechanisms generate specific computational operations in the cortical circuit remains largely unknown. Here, we identify the neurophysiological basis of both the rate of change and anticipation computations on synaptic inputs in a cortical circuit. Through biophysically realistic computer simulations and neuronal recordings, we show that the rate-of-change computation is operated robustly in cortical networks through the combination of two ubiquitous brain mechanisms: short-term synaptic depression and spike-frequency adaptation. We then show how this rate-of-change circuit can be embedded in a convergently connected network to anticipate temporally incoming synaptic inputs, in quantitative agreement with experimental findings on anticipatory responses to moving stimuli in the primary visual cortex. Given the robustness of the mechanism and the widespread nature of the physiological machinery involved, we suggest that rate-of-change computation and temporal anticipation are principal, hard-wired functions of neural information processing in the cortical microcircuit.

Changes in Social Exclusion Indicators and Psychological Distress Among Homeless People Over a 2.5-Year Period.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Straaten, Barbara; Rodenburg, Gerda; Van der Laan, Jorien; Boersma, Sandra N; Wolf, Judith R L M; Van de Mheen, Dike

2018-01-01

Although homelessness is inherently associated with social exclusion, homeless individuals are rarely included in conventional studies on social exclusion. Use of longitudinal survey data from a cohort study on homeless people in four major Dutch cities ( n  = 378) allowed to examine: changes in indicators of social exclusion among homeless people over a 2.5-year period after reporting to the social relief system, and associations between changes in indicators of social exclusion and changes in psychological distress. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was applied to investigate the associations between changes in indicators of social exclusion and changes in psychological distress. Improvements were found in various indicators of social exclusion, whereas financial debts showed no significant improvement. Changes in unmet care needs, health insurance, social support from family and relatedness to others were related to changes in psychological distress. This study demonstrated improvements in various indicators of social exclusion among homeless people over a period of 2.5 years, and sheds light on the concept of social exclusion in relation to homelessness.

Daily changes in temperature, not the circadian clock, regulate growth rate in Brachypodium distachyon.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominick A Matos

Full Text Available Plant growth is commonly regulated by external cues such as light, temperature, water availability, and internal cues generated by the circadian clock. Changes in the rate of growth within the course of a day have been observed in the leaves, stems, and roots of numerous species. However, the relative impact of the circadian clock on the growth of grasses has not been thoroughly characterized. We examined the influence of diurnal temperature and light changes, and that of the circadian clock on leaf length growth patterns in Brachypodium distachyon using high-resolution time-lapse imaging. Pronounced changes in growth rate were observed under combined photocyles and thermocycles or with thermocycles alone. A considerably more rapid growth rate was observed at 28°C than 12°C, irrespective of the presence or absence of light. In spite of clear circadian clock regulated gene expression, plants exhibited no change in growth rate under conditions of constant light and temperature, and little or no effect under photocycles alone. Therefore, temperature appears to be the primary cue influencing observed oscillations in growth rate and not the circadian clock or photoreceptor activity. Furthermore, the size of the leaf meristem and final cell length did not change in response to changes in temperature. Therefore, the nearly five-fold difference in growth rate observed across thermocycles can be attributed to proportionate changes in the rate of cell division and expansion. A better understanding of the growth cues in B. distachyon will further our ability to model metabolism and biomass accumulation in grasses.

[Specific growth rate and the rate of energy metabolism in the ontogenesis of axolotl, Ambystoma mexicanum (Amphibia: Ambystomatidae)].

Science.gov (United States)

Vladimirova, I G; Kleĭmenov, S Iu; Alekseeva, T A; Radzinskaia, L I

2003-01-01

Concordant changes in the rate of energy metabolism and specific growth rate of axolotls have been revealed. Several periods of ontogeny are distinguished, which differ in the ratio of energy metabolism to body weight and, therefore, are described by different allometric equations. It is suggested that the specific growth rate of an animal determines the type of dependence of energy metabolism on body weight.

Can evidence change the rate of back surgery? A randomized trial of community-based education.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, H I; Deyo, R A; Taylor, V M; Cheadle, A D; Conrad, D A; Loeser, J D; Heagerty, P J; Diehr, P

2001-01-01

Timely adoption of clinical practice guidelines is more likely to happen when the guidelines are used in combination with adjuvant educational strategies that address social as well as rational influences. To implement the conservative, evidence-based approach to low-back pain recommended in national guidelines, with the anticipated effect of reducing population-based rates of surgery. A randomized, controlled trial. Ten communities in western Washington State with annual rates of back surgery above the 1990 national average (158 operations per 100,000 adults). Spine surgeons, primary care physicians, patients who were surgical candidates, and hospital administrators. The five communities randomized to the intervention group received a package of six educational activities tailored to local needs by community planning groups. Surgeon study groups, primary care continuing medical education conferences, administrative consensus processes, videodisc-aided patient decision making, surgical outcomes management, and generalist academic detailing were serially implemented over a 30-month intervention period. Quarterly observations of surgical rates. After implementation of the intervention, surgery rates declined in the intervention communities but increased slightly in the control communities. The net effect of the intervention is estimated to be a decline of 20.9 operations per 100,000, a relative reduction of 8.9% (P = 0.01). We were able to use scientific evidence to engender voluntary change in back pain practice patterns across entire communities.

Predicting temperature drop rate of mass concrete during an initial cooling period using genetic programming

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattarai, Santosh; Zhou, Yihong; Zhao, Chunju; Zhou, Huawei

2018-02-01

Thermal cracking on concrete dams depends upon the rate at which the concrete is cooled (temperature drop rate per day) within an initial cooling period during the construction phase. Thus, in order to control the thermal cracking of such structure, temperature development due to heat of hydration of cement should be dropped at suitable rate. In this study, an attempt have been made to formulate the relation between cooling rate of mass concrete with passage of time (age of concrete) and water cooling parameters: flow rate and inlet temperature of cooling water. Data measured at summer season (April-August from 2009 to 2012) from recently constructed high concrete dam were used to derive a prediction model with the help of Genetic Programming (GP) software “Eureqa”. Coefficient of Determination (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The value of R and MSE is 0.8855 and 0.002961 respectively. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the relative impact on the target parameter due to input parameters. Further, testing the proposed model with an independent dataset those not included during analysis, results obtained from the proposed GP model are close enough to the real field data.

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shangkun Deng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Analysis of Changes in the Relationship between the KRW/USD Exchange rate and JPY/USD Exchange Rate Before and After the Economic Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chae-Shick Chung

2000-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between KRW/USD and JPY/USD exchange rates dividing the sample period into thress sub-periods: pre-crisis, and post-crisis. During the pre-crisis period, JPY/USD affects KRW/USD asymmetrically: the latter moved very closely with the former's depreciation but opposite is not the case. However, we cannot find such asymmetric relation during other periods. We also estimate KRW/USD volatilities using various GARCH models and find that economic hypothesis of JPY/USD affects volatilities of KRW/USD are firmly reject over all periods.

Long-term rate orientations: Development plan 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

Hydro-Quebec's preferred rate orientations for Quebec markets are presented. The background for a rate structure revision is outlined, followed by proposed changes to residential and general rates, and by a plan to implement the new rate structure. Some of the principles used in setting rates are described. The new rate structure proposals are intended to provide a better reflection of the utility's costs of supply and a clearer signal in favor of the rational use of electricity, thereby limiting long-term increases in both supply costs and electricity rates. It is proposed to use marginal costs to design rate structures, while the overall rate level will continue to reflect changes in average costs of supply. Also included in the proposed changes are time-of-use rates, which will help reduce costs by shifting loads from peak to off-peak periods and by encouraging the adoption of energy-conservation measures. Moreover, the integration of time-of-use options into the rate system will not only provide Hydro-Quebec with more powerful load-management tools but also give customers the opportunity to change their consumption patterns and thereby reduce their electricity bills. 11 figs., 11 tabs

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C R; Gill, B S; Mincham, G; Mohd Zaki, A H; Abdullah, N; Mahiyuddin, W R W; Ahmad, R; Shahar, M K; Harley, D; Viennet, E; Azil, A; Kamaluddin, A

2015-10-01

We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

Changes in photosynthetic rates and gene expression of leaves during a source-sink perturbation in sugarcane.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, A J; Cramer, M D; Watt, D A

2008-01-01

In crops other than sugarcane there is good evidence that the size and activity of carbon sinks influence source activity via sugar-related regulation of the enzymes of photosynthesis, an effect that is partly mediated through coarse regulation of gene expression. In the current study, leaf shading treatments were used to perturb the source-sink balance in 12-month-old Saccharum spp. hybrid 'N19' (N19) by restricting source activity to a single mature leaf. Changes in leaf photosynthetic gas exchange variables and leaf and culm sugar concentrations were subsequently measured over a 14 d period. In addition, the changes in leaf gene response to the source-sink perturbation were measured by reverse northern hybridization analysis of an array of 128 expressed sequence tags (ESTs) related to photosynthetic and carbohydrate metabolism. Sucrose concentrations in immature culm tissue declined significantly over the duration of the shading treatment, while a 57 and 88% increase in the assimilation rate (A) and electron transport rate (ETR), respectively, was observed in the source leaf. Several genes (27) in the leaf displayed a >2-fold change in expression level, including the upregulation of several genes associated with C(4) photosynthesis, mitochondrial metabolism and sugar transport. Changes in gene expression levels of several genes, including Rubisco (EC 4.1.1.39) and hexokinase (HXK; EC 2.7.1.1), correlated with changes in photosynthesis and tissue sugar concentrations that occurred subsequent to the source-sink perturbation. These results are consistent with the notion that sink demand may limit source activity through a kinase-mediated sugar signalling mechanism that correlates to a decrease in source hexose concentrations, which, in turn, correlate with increased expression of genes involved in photosynthesis and metabolite transport. The signal feedback system reporting sink sufficiency and regulating source activity may be a potentially valuable target for

Infant breathing rate counter based on variable resistor for pneumonia

Science.gov (United States)

Sakti, Novi Angga; Hardiyanto, Ardy Dwi; La Febry Andira R., C.; Camelya, Kesa; Widiyanti, Prihartini

2016-03-01

Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of death in new born baby in Indonesia. According to WHO in 2002, breathing rate is very important index to be the symptom of pneumonia. In the Community Health Center, the nurses count with a stopwatch for exactly one minute. Miscalculation in Community Health Center occurs because of long time concentration and focus on two object at once. This calculation errors can cause the baby who should be admitted to the hospital only be attended at home. Therefore, an accurate breathing rate counter at Community Health Center level is necessary. In this work, resistance change of variable resistor is made to be breathing rate counter. Resistance change in voltage divider can produce voltage change. If the variable resistance moves periodically, the voltage will change periodically too. The voltage change counted by software in the microcontroller. For the every mm shift at the variable resistor produce average 0.96 voltage change. The software can count the number of wave generated by shifting resistor.

CHANGES IN LIPID PARAMETERS AND ANTROPOMETRIC INDICATORS OF DIETING DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIVE PREPARATIONS OF TOP ATHLETES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ljubiša Lilić

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Physical exercise is a planned and repeated exercise aiming to maintain and improve one or more aspects of physical condition. Increased sympathetic-adrenal activity and reduction of insulin concentration are the main stimuli of lipolysis during physical activity.The aim of this study was to investigate acute and chronic effects of intensive aerobic training program on lipid profile and antropometric parameters in young healthy soccer players.Fifteen healthy male (soccer players, average age 21.4±3.6 were included in this study. Soccer players had a minimum of 6 months continuous training that consisted of three training sessions per week. They did not smoke, take drugs or drink alcohol during the examination period. A balanced diet (60% carbohydrates, 25% lipids and 15% proteins was recommended by a nutritionist as a standard diet during the preparations period. This consisted of three repetitions of 20-min running sessions, with two 3-min breaks in-between. Target load was obtained at 120–140 bpm heart rate. Anthropometric estimation comprized determination of body fat % by impendansometer Omron BF306, body height (BH, body weight (BW, waist circumference (WC, waist/hip ratio (WHR and determination of body mass index (BMI=BW/BH2. Blood samples were taken prior to and 5-10 min after completion of exercise. Biochemical investigation comprized spectrophotometric determination of total cholesterol (TC, triglicerides (TG, HDL-C and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C. There was a significant reduction of body fat content % after 6 months of intensive physical preparation (p<0.05, but not of BMI and BW. There were no signifficant changes in waist circumference and WHR values at the end of physical preparation compared to the values from the beginning. There were not significant changes in TC and TG levels at the end of 6 months preparations; however significant changes in lipid fractions were present. There was a significant decrease in

Feeding period restriction alters the expression of peripheral circadian rhythm genes without changing body weight in mice.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hagoon Jang

Full Text Available Accumulating evidence suggests that the circadian clock is closely associated with metabolic regulation. However, whether an impaired circadian clock is a direct cause of metabolic dysregulation such as body weight gain is not clearly understood. In this study, we demonstrate that body weight gain in mice is not significantly changed by restricting feeding period to daytime or nighttime. The expression of peripheral circadian clock genes was altered by feeding period restriction, while the expression of light-regulated hypothalamic circadian clock genes was unaffected by either a normal chow diet (NCD or a high-fat diet (HFD. In the liver, the expression pattern of circadian clock genes, including Bmal1, Clock, and Per2, was changed by different feeding period restrictions. Moreover, the expression of lipogenic genes, gluconeogenic genes, and fatty acid oxidation-related genes in the liver was also altered by feeding period restriction. Given that feeding period restriction does not affect body weight gain with a NCD or HFD, it is likely that the amount of food consumed might be a crucial factor in determining body weight. Collectively, these data suggest that feeding period restriction modulates the expression of peripheral circadian clock genes, which is uncoupled from light-sensitive hypothalamic circadian clock genes.

78 FR 16706 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-18

... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

75 FR 8106 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-23

... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

75 FR 82066 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-29

... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

76 FR 73674 - Change in Discount Rate for Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-29

... Planning AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of change. SUMMARY: The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1974 require an annual determination of a discount rate for Federal water resources planning. The discount rate for Federal water resources planning...

Field Test Evaluation of Effect on Cone Resistance Caused by Change in Penetration Rate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Rikke; Nielsen, Benjaminn Nordahl; Ibsen, Lars Bo

2012-01-01

in the laboratory. A change in the measured cone resistance occurs by lowering the penetration rate. This is caused by the changes in drainage conditions. Compared to the normal penetration rate of 20 mm/s, this paper illustrates that lowering the penetration rate leads to an increase in the cone resistance from 1......This paper presents how a change in cone penetration rate affects the measured cone resistance during cone penetration testing in silty soils. Regardless of soil, type the standard rate of penetration is 20 mm/s and it is generally accepted that undrained penetration occurs in clay while drained...... penetration occurs in sand. In intermediate soils such as silty soils, the standard cone penetration rate may result in drainage conditions varying from undrained to partially or fully drained conditions. Field cone penetrations tests have been conducted with different penetration rates on a test site...

Persistent fluctuations in synchronization rate in globally coupled oscillators with periodic external forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Atsumi, Yu; Nakao, Hiroya

2012-05-01

A system of phase oscillators with repulsive global coupling and periodic external forcing undergoing asynchronous rotation is considered. The synchronization rate of the system can exhibit persistent fluctuations depending on parameters and initial phase distributions, and the amplitude of the fluctuations scales with the system size for uniformly random initial phase distributions. Using the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation that reduces the original system to low-dimensional macroscopic equations, we show that the fluctuations are collective dynamics of the system corresponding to low-dimensional trajectories of the reduced equations. It is argued that the amplitude of the fluctuations is determined by the inhomogeneity of the initial phase distribution, resulting in system-size scaling for the random case.

Importance of glomerular filtration rate change as surrogate endpoint for the future incidence of end-stage renal disease in general Japanese population: community-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanda, Eiichiro; Usui, Tomoko; Kashihara, Naoki; Iseki, Chiho; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Nangaku, Masaomi

2018-04-01

Because of the necessity for extended period and large costs until the event occurs, surrogate endpoints are indispensable for implementation of clinical studies to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients' prognosis. Subjects with serum creatinine level for a baseline period over 1-3 years were enrolled (n = 69,238) in this community-based prospective cohort study in Okinawa, Japan, and followed up for 15 years. The endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The percent of estimated glomerular filtration rate (%eGFR) change was calculated on the basis of the baseline period. Subjects had a mean ± SD age, 55.59 ± 14.69 years; eGFR, 80.15 ± 21.15 ml/min/1.73 m 2 . Among the subjects recruited, 15.81% had a low eGFR (<60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ) and 36.1/100,000 person years developed ESRD. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline characteristics showed that the risk of ESRD tended to be high with high rates of decrease in %eGFR changes over 2 or 3 years in the high- and low-eGFR groups. The specificities and positive predictive values for ESRD based on a cutoff value of %eGFR change of less than -30% over 2 or 3 years were high in the high- and low-eGFR groups. %eGFR change tends to be associated with the risk of ESRD. %eGFR change of less than -30% over 2 or 3 years can be a candidate surrogate endpoint for ESRD in the general Japanese population.

A multicenter, retrospective chart review study comparing index therapy change rates in open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension patients newly treated with latanoprost or travoprost-Z monotherapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Deepak P

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Because latanoprost and the original formulation of travoprost that included benzalkonium chloride (BAK have been shown to be similar with regard to tolerability, we compared initial topical intraocular pressure (IOP-lowering medication change rates in patients newly treated with latanoprost or travoprost-Z monotherapy. Methods At 14 clinical practice sites, medical records were abstracted for patients with a diagnosis of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension and who were ≥40 years of age, had a baseline and at least one follow-up visit, and had no prior history of ocular prostaglandin use. Data regarding demographics, ocular/systemic medical histories, clinical variables, therapy initiations and reasons for changes, adverse events, and resource utilization were recorded from randomly chosen eligible charts. Primary outcomes were rates of and reasons for changing from the initial therapy within six months and across the full study period (1000 days. Results Data from 900 medical charts (latanoprost, 632; travoprost-Z, 268 were included. For both cohorts, average follow-up was >1 year. Cohorts were similar with regard to age (median ~67 years, gender distribution (>50% female, and diagnosis (~80% with open-angle glaucoma. Within six months, rates of index therapy change for latanoprost versus travoprost-Z were 21.2% (134/632 and 28.7% (77/268, respectively (p = 0.0148; across the full study period, rates were 34.5% (218/632 and 45.2% (121/268, respectively (p = 0.0026. Among those who changed their index therapy, insufficient IOP control was the most commonly reported reason followed by adverse events; hyperemia was the most commonly reported adverse event at index therapy change. Conclusions In this "real world" study of changes in therapy in patients prescribed initial monotherapy with latanoprost with BAK or travoprost-Z with SofZia, medication changes were common in both treatment groups but statistically

Evaluation of biogas production rate and biochemical changes in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The rate of biogas generation and biochemical changes in pig dung used in a simple mobile biogas digester designed and constructed at the Department of Environmental Technology, Federal University of Technology Owerri, Nigeria were evaluated. Measurable gas production started 4 days after feeding the digester with ...

Credit ratings and bond spreads of the GIIPS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, Tim; de Haan, Jakob

2016-01-01

We examine the relationship between credit ratings and bond yield spreads of peripheral countries in the euro area (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) for the period 1995-2014. Since 2012, bond spreads of those countries have come down very fast, whereas credit ratings have hardly changed.

Graft survival rate of renal transplantation during a period of 10 years in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Shahbazi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Kidney transplantation is a preferred treatment for many patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD and is far more profitable than hemodialysis. Analyzing renal transplantation data can help to evaluate the effectiveness of transplantation interventions. The aim of this study was to determine the organ survival rate after kidney transplantation during a period of 10 years (March 2001-March 2011 among transplanted patients in Arak, Markazi Province, Iran. Materials and Methods: In this historical cohort study, all recipients of kidney transplantation from Arak, Markazi Province, Iran who had medical records in Valiasr Hospital and "charity for kidney patients" of Arak, Markazi Province, Iran during a period of 10 years from March 2001 to March 2011 were included. Data collected by using checklists were completed from patients′ hospital records. Kaplan-Meier method was used to determine the graft cumulative survival rate, log-rank test to compare survival curves in subgroups, and Cox regression model to define the hazard ratio and for ruling out the intervening factors. Statistical analysis was conducted by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 20 and Stata 11. Results: Mean duration of follow-up was 55.43 ± 42.02 months. By using the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative probability of graft survival at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was 99.1, 97.7, 94.3, 85.7, and 62.1%, respectively. The number of dialysis by controlling the effect of other variables had a significant association with the risk of graft failure [hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.47 (1.02-2.13]. Conclusion: This study showed that the graft survival rate was satisfactory in this community and was similar to the results of single-center studies in the world. Dialysis time after transplantation was a significant predictor of survival in the recipients of kidney transplantation that should be considered.

Temporal stability and rates of post-depositional change in geochemical signatures of brown trout Salmo trutta scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, D; Shephard, S; Kelly, F L

2016-09-01

This study investigates temporal stability in the scale microchemistry of brown trout Salmo trutta in feeder streams of a large heterogeneous lake catchment and rates of change after migration into the lake. Laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry was used to quantify the elemental concentrations of Na, Mg, Mn, Cu, Zn, Ba and Sr in archived (1997-2002) scales of juvenile S. trutta collected from six major feeder streams of Lough Mask, County Mayo, Ireland. Water-element Ca ratios within these streams were determined for the fish sampling period and for a later period (2013-2015). Salmo trutta scale Sr and Ba concentrations were significantly (P < 0·05) correlated with stream water sample Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca ratios respectively from both periods, indicating multi-annual stability in scale and water-elemental signatures. Discriminant analysis of scale chemistries correctly classified 91% of sampled juvenile S. trutta to their stream of origin using a cross-validated classification model. This model was used to test whether assumed post-depositional change in scale element concentrations reduced correct natal stream classification of S. trutta in successive years after migration into Lough Mask. Fish residing in the lake for 1-3 years could be reliably classified to their most likely natal stream, but the probability of correct classification diminished strongly with longer lake residence. Use of scale chemistry to identify natal streams of lake S. trutta should focus on recent migrants, but may not require contemporary water chemistry data. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Binaural interaction in low-frequency neurons in inferior colliculus of the cat. II. Effects of changing rate and direction of interaural phase.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, T C; Kuwada, S

1983-10-01

We used the binaural beat stimulus to study the interaural phase sensitivity of inferior colliculus (IC) neurons in the cat. The binaural beat, produced by delivering tones of slightly different frequencies to the two ears, generates continuous and graded changes in interaural phase. Over 90% of the cells that exhibit a sensitivity to changes in the interaural delay also show a sensitivity to interaural phase disparities with the binaural beat. Cells respond with a burst of impulses with each complete cycle of the beat frequency. The period histogram obtained by binning the poststimulus time histogram on the beat frequency gives a measure of the interaural phase sensitivity of the cell. In general, there is good correspondence in the shapes of the period histograms generated from binaural beats and the interaural phase curves derived from interaural delays and in the mean interaural phase angle calculated from them. The magnitude of the beat frequency determines the rate of change of interaural phase and the sign determines the direction of phase change. While most cells respond in a phase-locked manner up to beat frequencies of 10 Hz, there are some cells tht will phase lock up to 80 Hz. Beat frequency and mean interaural phase angle are linearly related for most cells. Most cells respond equally in the two directions of phase change and with different rates of change, at least up to 10 Hz. However, some IC cells exhibit marked sensitivity to the speed of phase change, either responding more vigorously at low beat frequencies or at high beat frequencies. In addition, other cells demonstrate a clear directional sensitivity. The cells that show sensitivity to the direction and speed of phase changes would be expected to demonstrate a sensitivity to moving sound sources in the free field. Changes in the mean interaural phase of the binaural beat period histograms are used to determine the effects of changes in average and interaural intensity on the phase sensitivity

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2014-08-01

Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

Pediatric and Gynecologic Rates of Documentation of Last Menstrual Period in Female Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomlin, Kristl; Mirea, Lucia; Williamson, Amy

2018-03-08

The American Academy of Pediatrics and American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists have identified the menstrual cycle as essential in assessing overall health of adolescent girls. Menses should be considered a "vital sign" and documentation of last menstrual period (LMP) is recommended at every patient encounter. The aim of this study was to estimate and compare LMP documentation among adolescent and pediatric health care providers. A retrospective cohort study identified a random sample of 50 female patients seen in the general pediatrics (PEDS), adolescent medicine (AM), and pediatric and adolescent gynecology (PAG) ambulatory clinics at Phoenix Children's Hospital between January 1, 2016 and March 31, 2016. Rates of LMP documentation were compared between clinics using the Pearson χ 2 test. Multivariable logistic regression analyses quantified the association of clinic and LMP documentation, with adjustments for visit reason, provider gender, and age at presentation. Rates of LMP documentation were 100% for adolescent gynecologists, but significantly lower for general pediatricians (14%) and AM (60%) providers (P < .0001). These findings were confirmed in multivariable analyses (PAG vs PEDS: odds ratio [OR], 280; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32-2331; PAG vs AM: OR, 34; 95% CI, 4.4-270; AM vs PEDS: OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-11.0). Adolescent gynecologists document LMP routinely. In contrast, LMP documentation rates in AM, and especially in PEDS, were significantly lower. Quality improvement methods such as incorporation of an LMP section into the vitals portion of an electronic medical record could help improve rates of compliance. Copyright © 2018 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maljkovic-berry, Irina [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Athreya, Gayathri [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Daniels, Marcus [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bruno, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Korber, Bette [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kuiken, Carla [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ribeiro, Ruy M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changed over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.

Phase identification of quasi-periodic flow measured by particle image velocimetry with a low sampling rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Chong; Wang, Hongping; Wang, Jinjun

2013-01-01

This work mainly deals with the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) time coefficient method used for extracting phase information from quasi-periodic flow. The mathematical equivalence between this method and the traditional cross-correlation method is firstly proved. A two-dimensional circular cylinder wake flow measured by time-resolved particle image velocimetry within a range of Reynolds numbers is then used to evaluate the reliability of this method. The effect of both the sampling rate and Reynolds number on the identification accuracy is finally discussed. It is found that the POD time coefficient method provides a convenient alternative for phase identification, whose feasibility in low-sampling-rate measurement has additional advantages for experimentalists. (paper)

78 FR 77196 - Random Drug and Alcohol Testing Percentage Rates of Covered Aviation Employees for the Period of...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-20

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Random Drug and Alcohol Testing... the minimum random drug and alcohol testing percentage rates for the period January 1, 2014, through... Federal Regulations Title 14, section 120.109(b) (for drug testing), and 120.217(c) (for alcohol testing...

Agreement between pre-post measures of change and transition ratings as well as then-tests

OpenAIRE

Meyer, Thorsten; Richter, Susanne; Raspe, Heiner

2013-01-01

Background Different approaches have been developed for measuring change. Direct measurement of change (transition ratings) requires asking a patient directly about his judgment about the change he has experienced (reported change). With indirect measures of change, the patients? status is assessed at different time points and differences between them are calculated (measured change). When using the quasi-indirect approach (?then-test?), patients are asked after an intervention to rate their ...

Increasing flux rate to shorten leaching period and ramp-up production

Science.gov (United States)

Ngantung, Billy; Agustin, Riska; Ravi'i

2017-01-01

J Resources Bolaang Mongondow (JBRM) has operated a dynamic heap leach in its Bakan Gold Mine since late 2013. After successfully surpassing its name plate capacity of 2.6 MT/annum in 2014, the clayey and transition ore become the next operational challenge. The presence of transition and clayey ore requires longer leaching period, hence reducing the leach pad capacity which then caused reduced production. Maintaining or even increasing production with such longer leaching ore types can be done by expanding the leach pad area which means an additional capital investment, and/or shortening the leaching cycle which compromise a portion of gold extraction. JBRM has been successfully increasing the leach pad production from 2.6 MT/annum to 3.8 MT/annum, whilst improving the gold extraction from around 70% to around 80%. This was achieved by managing the operation of the leach pad which is shortening the leach cycle by identifying and combining the optimal flux rate application versus the tonne processed in each cell, at no capital investment for expanding the cell capacity.

Changes in Blood Pressure and Heart Rate during Fixed-Interval Responding in Squirrel Monkeys

Science.gov (United States)

DeWeese, Jo

2009-01-01

Episodic and sustained increases in heart rate and mean arterial blood pressure can occur with recurring patterns of schedule-controlled behavior. Most previous studies were conducted under fixed-ratio schedules, which maintained a consistent high rate of responding that alternated with periods of no responding during times when the schedule was…

Accounting For Patients' Socioeconomic Status Does Not Change Hospital Readmission Rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernheim, Susannah M; Parzynski, Craig S; Horwitz, Leora; Lin, Zhenqiu; Araas, Michael J; Ross, Joseph S; Drye, Elizabeth E; Suter, Lisa G; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-08-01

There is an active public debate about whether patients' socioeconomic status should be included in the readmission measures used to determine penalties in Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). Using the current Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services methodology, we compared risk-standardized readmission rates for hospitals caring for high and low proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status (as defined by their Medicaid status or neighborhood income). We then calculated risk-standardized readmission rates after additionally adjusting for patients' socioeconomic status. Our results demonstrate that hospitals caring for large proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status have readmission rates similar to those of other hospitals. Moreover, readmission rates calculated with and without adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status are highly correlated. Readmission rates of hospitals caring for patients of low socioeconomic status changed by approximately 0.1 percent with adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status, and only 3-4 percent fewer such hospitals reached the threshold for payment penalty in Medicare's HRRP. Overall, adjustment for socioeconomic status does not change hospital results in meaningful ways. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Metabolic rates and biochemical compositions of Apostichopus japonicus (Selenka) tissue during periods of inactivity

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Jie; Dong, Shuanglin; Tian, Xiangli; Wang, Fang; Gao, Qinfeng; Dong, Yunwei

2010-03-01

Estivation, hibernation, and starvation are indispensable inactive states of sea cucumbers Apostichopus japonicus in nature and in culture ponds. Generally, temperature is the principal factor that induces estivation or hibernation in the sea cucumber. The present study provided insight into the physiological adaptations of A. japonicus during the three types of inactivity (hibernation, estivation, and starvation) by measuring the oxygen consumption rates ( Vo2) and biochemical compositions under laboratory conditions of low (3°C), normal (17°C) and high (24°C) temperature. The results show that the characteristics of A. japonicus in dormancy (hibernation and estivation) states were quite different from higher animals, such as fishes, amphibians, reptiles, and mammals, but more closely resembled a semi-dormant state. It was observed that the shift in the A. japonicus physiological state from normal to dormancy was a chronic rather than acute process, indicated by the gradual depression of metabolic rate. While metabolic rates declined 44.9% for the estivation group and 71.7% for the hibernation group, relative to initial rates, during the 36 d culture period, metabolic rates were not maintained at constant levels during these states. The metabolic depression processes for sea cucumbers in hibernation and estivation appeared to be a passive and an active metabolic suppression, respectively. In contrast, the metabolic rates (128.90±11.70 μg/g h) of estivating sea cucumbers were notably higher (107.85±6.31 μg/g h) than in starving sea cucumbers at 17°C, which indicated that the dormancy mechanism here, as a physiological inhibition, was not as efficient as in higher animals. Finally, the principle metabolic substrate or energy source of sea cucumbers in hibernation was lipid, whereas in estivation they mainly consumed protein in the early times and both protein and lipid thereafter.

The period between beta-blocker use and physical activity changes training heart rate behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naiane Ferraz Bandeira Alves

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The Brazilian Society of Cardiology (SBC proposes that hypertensive subjects who use beta-blockers and practice physical exercises must have their training heart rate (HR corrected due to the negative chronotropic effect of this drug. Nevertheless, if the physical activity is performed outside of plasmatic half-life, correction may not be necessary. This study investigated the exercise chronotropic response both inside and outside the beta-blocker plasmatic half-life. Nine subjects in use of atenolol or propranolol, and six controls, carried out three walking sessions in three days according to different schedules: EX2 (two hours after drug administration, at the plasmatic peak; EX11 (eleven hours after drug administration, at the end of plasmatic half-life; and EX23 (twenty-three hours after drug administration, outside the plasmatic half-life. The walking sessions were performed on an ergometric treadmill and HR was monitored by a heart rate monitor. During the exercises, mean HRs were 97.2, 108.4 and 109 for EX2, EX11 and EX23, respectively, with the value for EX2 statistically lower than the others (p0.05. The study concludes that the attenuation of the positive chronotropic response which occurs during exercise in subjects using beta-blockers, is less evident when the exercise is performed outside the plasmatic half-life of the drug.A Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia (SBC propõe que os hipertensos que utilizam beta-bloqueadores e praticam exercícios físicos devem ter sua frequência cardíaca de treinamento (HR corrigida devido ao efeito cronotrópico negativo desse fármaco. Contudo, se a atividade física é realizada fora da meia-vida plasmática do fármaco, a correção pode não ser necessária. Este estudo investigou a resposta cronotrópica ao exercício dentro e fora da meia-vida plasmática do beta-bloqueador. Nove indivíduos que usavam atenolol ou propranolol e seis controles, efetuaram três sessões de caminhada em tr

An examination of the effects of intra and inter-individual changes in wellbeing and mental health on self-rated health in a population study of middle and older-aged adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Richard A; Sargent-Cox, Kerry; Mitchell, Paul; Anstey, Kaarin J

2014-11-01

Self-rated health is frequently used as an indicator of health and quality of life in epidemiological studies. While the association between self-rated health and negative mental health is well established, associations with indictors of positive wellbeing are less clear. Data from the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project were used to compare the effects of vitality and mental health on self-rated health. Participants (n = 40,712) provided information on vitality, mental health and self-rated health, were aged 45-95 years at baseline, and were followed between 1 and 10 years (M = 5.6; SD = 2.9). In comparison with mental health, multi-level modelling indicated between- and within-person change in vitality was more strongly associated with self-rated health. Bivariate dual change score modelling of the cross-lagged associations between vitality and self-rated health indicated vitality to be a stronger predictor of change in self-rated health. Self-rated health was unrelated to change in vitality. Vitality accounted for most of the mental health effect on self-rated health and was identified as a significant predictor of change in self-rated health over a 10-year period. Promoting wellbeing and psychological functioning may have significant protective effects on negative health outcomes throughout the adult lifespan and into late life.

75 FR 76069 - Random Drug and Alcohol Testing Percentage Rates of Covered Aviation Employees for the Period of...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-07

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Random Drug and Alcohol Testing... minimum random drug and alcohol testing percentage rates for the period January 1, 2011, through December... Regulations Title 14, section 120.109(b) (for drug testing), and 120.217(c) (for alcohol testing). Issued in...

77 FR 71669 - Random Drug and Alcohol Testing Percentage Rates of Covered Aviation Employees for the Period of...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-03

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Random Drug and Alcohol Testing... the minimum random drug and alcohol testing percentage rates for the period January 1, 2013, through... Regulations Title 14, Sec. Sec. 120.109(b) (for drug testing), and 120.217(c) (for alcohol testing). Issued in...

76 FR 74843 - Random Drug and Alcohol Testing Percentage Rates of Covered Aviation Employees for the Period of...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Random Drug and Alcohol Testing... the minimum random drug and alcohol testing percentage rates for the period January 1, 2012, through... Regulations Title 14, Sec. 120.109(b) (for drug testing), and 120.217(c) (for alcohol testing). Issued in...

Automated Techniques for Quantification of Coastline Change Rates using Landsat Imagery along Caofeidian, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei; Liu, Zhaoqin; Yu, Yang

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on automated extraction and monitoring of coastlines by remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal Landsat imagery along Caofeidian, China. Caofeidian, as one of the active economic regions in China, has experienced dramatic change due to enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation. These processes have caused morphological changes of the Caofeidian shoreline. In this study, shoreline extraction and change analysis are researched. An algorithm based on image texture and mathematical morphology is proposed to automate coastline extraction. We tested this approach and found that it's capable of extracting coastlines from TM and ETM+ images with little human modifications. Then, the detected coastline vectors are imported into Arcgis software, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used to calculate the change rate (the end point rate and linear regression rate). The results show that in some parts of the research area, remarkable coastline changes are observed, especially the accretion rate. The abnormal accretion is mostly attributed to the large-scale land reclamation during 2003 and 2004 in Caofeidian. So we can conclude that various construction projects, especially the land reclamation project, have made Caofeidian shorelines change greatly, far above the normal

Automated Techniques for Quantification of Coastline Change Rates using Landsat Imagery along Caofeidian, China

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei; Liu, Zhaoqin; Yu, Yang

2014-03-01

This paper focuses on automated extraction and monitoring of coastlines by remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal Landsat imagery along Caofeidian, China. Caofeidian, as one of the active economic regions in China, has experienced dramatic change due to enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation. These processes have caused morphological changes of the Caofeidian shoreline. In this study, shoreline extraction and change analysis are researched. An algorithm based on image texture and mathematical morphology is proposed to automate coastline extraction. We tested this approach and found that it's capable of extracting coastlines from TM and ETM+ images with little human modifications. Then, the detected coastline vectors are imported into Arcgis software, and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used to calculate the change rate (the end point rate and linear regression rate). The results show that in some parts of the research area, remarkable coastline changes are observed, especially the accretion rate. The abnormal accretion is mostly attributed to the large-scale land reclamation during 2003 and 2004 in Caofeidian. So we can conclude that various construction projects, especially the land reclamation project, have made Caofeidian shorelines change greatly, far above the normal.

Social integration prospectively predicts changes in heart rate variability among individuals undergoing migration stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Gouin, Jean-Philippe; Zhou, Biru; Fitzpatrick, Stephanie

2015-04-01

Poor social integration increases risk for poor health. The psychobiological pathways underlying this effect are not well-understood. This study utilized a migration stress model to prospectively investigate the impact of social integration on change in high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), a marker of autonomic functioning. Sixty new international students were recruited shortly after their arrival in the host country and assessed 2 and 5 months later. At each assessment period, participants provided information on social integration and loneliness and had their resting HF-HRV evaluated. There was an overall decrease in HF-HRV over time. The magnitude of the within-person and between-person effects of social integration on HRV increased over time, such that greater social integration was associated with higher HF-HRV at later follow-ups. These results suggest that altered autonomic functioning might represent a key pathway linking social integration to health outcomes.

Financial and fiscal crises, prices and EUR/USD rate of exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slawomir I. Bukowski

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: How did the standard and non-standard ECB policy measures influence the price level and the EUR/USD rate of exchange in the period 2008 -2013? Design/methodology/approach: We formulated the following hypothesis: Depreciation of the Euro versus American dollar exchange rate occurred in the period of financial and fiscal crisis (2008-2014. The main reasons for that included: fiscal crisis in the euro area, implementation of standard and non–standard (quantitative easing ECB monetary policy measures and growth of money supply in the euro area. In that period, the economically and statistically significant impacts of money supply aggregate M2 and differences between interest rates and rates of inflation in the euro area and USA on changes in EUR/USD rate of exchange were noted. For verification of our hypothesis we used econometric modeling - model of regression estimated using the GARCH (0.1, using the monthly data for the period 1999:01-2013:12. Results of our research confirmed the hypothesis formulated by us. Findings: Our study confirmed the formulated hypothesis; the EBC monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, in the years 2008-2014 had a significant effect on the EUR/USD exchange rate, contributing largely to the depreciation of the euro in the same period. Research limitations/implications: The same method of research could be applied to other cases of currency area and central bank monetary policy. Originality/value: The results support the existence of statistically and economically significant impact of central bank policy on the rate of exchange, by the expansion of money supply, changes of differences between interest rates and rates of inflation inside and outside the currency rate area. Those results confirm conclusion formulated based on the theory of interest rate parity and assets theory of currency rates.

76 FR 75562 - Notice of a Change in Status of the Payable Periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-02

... Payable Periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC08) Program for Colorado AGENCY... Change in Status of the payable periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC08) program... claiming benefits in high unemployment states. The Department of Labor produces a trigger notice indicating...

The Influence of Shoreline Curvature on Rates of Shoreline Change on Sandy Coasts

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, A. B.; Lauzon, R.; Cheng, S.; Liu, J.; Lazarus, E.

2017-12-01

The sandy, low-lying barrier islands which characterize much of the US East and Gulf coasts are popular spots to live and vacation, and are often heavily developed. However, sandy shorelines and barriers are also naturally mobile landforms, which are vulnerable to sea level rise and storms and can experience high rates of shoreline change. Many previous studies have attempted to understand and quantify the factors that contribute to those rates of shoreline change, such as grain size, underlying geology, sea level rise, and anthropogenic modification. Shoreline curvature has not been considered in such analyses, but previous research has demonstrated that subtle coastline curvature (and therefore alongshore variation in relative offshore wave angle) can result in gradients in net alongshore transport that cause significant shoreline erosion or accretion. Here we present the results of a spatially extensive analysis of the correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates for the sandy shorelines of the US East and Gulf coasts. We find that, for wave-dominated sandy coasts where nourishment and shoreline stabilization do not dominate the shoreline change signal (such as parts of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida), there is a significant negative correlation between shoreline curvature and shoreline change rates over 1 - 5 km and decadal to centurial space and time scales. This correlation indicates that a portion of the coastal erosion (and accretion) observed in these areas can be explained by the smoothing of subtle coastline curvature by gradients in alongshore transport, and suggests that shoreline curvature should be included in future attempts to understand historical and future rates of shoreline change. Shoreline stabilization, especially through beach nourishment, complicates the relationship between curvature and shoreline change. Beach construction during nourishment creates a seaward convex curvature in the part of the shoreline moves

Experimental evaluation of the MIT-SNL period-generated minimum time control laws for the rapid adjustment of reactor power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.A.; Kwok, K.S.; Menadier, P.T.; Thome, F.V.; Wyant, F.J.

1987-01-01

The rapid adjustment of reactor neutronic power has recently been achieved by developing control laws that determine the actuator mechanism velocity necessary to produce a specified reactor period. Designated as the 'MIT-SNL Period-Generated Minimum Time Control Laws,' these relations are closed-form expressions of general applicability. In particular, if there is no limitation on the available rate of change of reactivity, these laws can be used to achieve virtually any desired power profile including time optimal ones. The innovative aspect of these laws is that the rate of change of reactivity rather than the reactivity itself is used as the control signal. For example, relative to a time-optimal response, these laws function by altering the rate of change of reactivity so that the instantaneous period is stepped from infinity to its minimum allowed value, held at that value until the desired power level is attained, and then stepped back to infinity. The response is time-optimal because the power adjustment is continuously made at the maximum allowed rate

Drug usage by outpatients in Croatia during an 8-year period: Influence of changes in pricing policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitezic, Dinko; Madjarevic, Tomislav; Gantumur, Monja; Buble, Tonci; Vitezic, Miomira; Kovacevic, Miljenko; Mrsic-Pelcic, Jasenka; Sestan, Branko

2012-07-01

The aim of our study was to investigate the changes in drug usage and financial expenditure according to legal changes in Croatia during the period 2001 - 2008, especially considering pricing policy. The data on outpatient drug usage during the studied period was obtained from the Croatian National Health Insurance (CNHI). CNHI maintains a database on drugs prescribed by primary health care physicians and dispensed by pharmacies. The data was calculated and presented in defined daily doses (DDD) per inhabitant per year for antibiotics and in DDD/1,000 inhabitants/day for other drugs. The data is also presented in Euro/DDD and the financial expenditures are presented in Euros. During the investigated period drug usage increased 81.33%, while financial expenditure increased 77.23%. While total DDD/1,000 increased ~ 10% every year, financial expenditure increased 10 - 20% annually until 2006, but since then there have been no significant changes. Pricing policy changes could influence drug financial expenditure considerably in the short-term, but it is also important to apply a combination of measures for drug expenditure control. Numerous interventions from authorities from different countries all over the world, prove that there is still no so called "gold standard" which could restrain growing usage and expenditure of drugs. Clinical pharmacologists and clinical pharmacists should be included in these processes.

Changing trends in diabetes mellitus in pregnancy.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Khalifeh, A

2014-02-01

The purpose of this study was to identify any changing trends in the incidence and caesarean section (CS) rate of pre-gestational diabetes mellitus (DM) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) over a 10- year period, between 1999 and 2008. Although the incidence of pre-gestational DM has not significantly changed over the course of the last 10 years, there is an obvious rising trend in the incidence of GDM. Despite an increase in the overall CS rate during this time period, a parallel increase in the CS rate has not been observed among women whose pregnancies are complicated either by gestational or by pre-gestational diabetes (PGD).

Predictors of ventricular tachyarrhythmia occurring late after intracardiac repair of tetralogy of Fallot: combination of QRS duration change rate and tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Masashi; Sugimoto, Ai; Tsuchida, Masanori

2017-01-01

Background To determine potential predictors of ventricular tachyarrhythmia and sudden cardiac death (SCD) occurring late after repair of tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). Methods Since 1964, 415 patients had undergone total repair for TOF at Niigata University Hospital. Of these, 89 patients who were followed for more than 10 years at our institute were retrospectively reviewed. Results The mean follow-up period was 24.3 years. During the study period, one patient died of cerebral bleeding, and two patients had SCD. The overall survival rates at 20, 30, and 40 years were 100%, 94.6%, and 94.6%, respectively. Eight (9.0%) patients required re-intervention during the late period associated with right ventricular outflow (n=4), tricuspid valve (n=3), aortic valve (n=2), and others (n=2). Ten (11.2%) patients had a history of ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF), and six underwent implantation of an implantable cardiac defibrillator. Multivariate analysis selected the change rate of QRS duration [ms/year; odds ratio (OR), 2.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28–4.65; P=0.007] and the pressure gradient at tricuspid valve regurgitation on echocardiography (OR, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02–1.22; P=0.017) as risk factors for VT/VF or SCD. Trans-annular patch (TAP) repair was not an independent risk factor for ventricular arrhythmia. Conclusions The combination of rapid change rate of QRS duration and higher-pressure gradient at tricuspid regurgitation were risk factors for ventricular tachyarrhythmia late after TOF repair. Adequate surgical or catheter intervention for pressure and volume load in the right ventricle might decrease the prevalence of VT/VF and SCD. PMID:29312717

Coordinated Changes in Mutation and Growth Rates Induced by Genome Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Issei Nishimura

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Genome size is determined during evolution, but it can also be altered by genetic engineering in laboratories. The systematic characterization of reduced genomes provides valuable insights into the cellular properties that are quantitatively described by the global parameters related to the dynamics of growth and mutation. In the present study, we analyzed a small collection of W3110 Escherichia coli derivatives containing either the wild-type genome or reduced genomes of various lengths to examine whether the mutation rate, a global parameter representing genomic plasticity, was affected by genome reduction. We found that the mutation rates of these cells increased with genome reduction. The correlation between genome length and mutation rate, which has been reported for the evolution of bacteria, was also identified, intriguingly, for genome reduction. Gene function enrichment analysis indicated that the deletion of many of the genes encoding membrane and transport proteins play a role in the mutation rate changes mediated by genome reduction. Furthermore, the increase in the mutation rate with genome reduction was highly associated with a decrease in the growth rate in a nutrition-dependent manner; thus, poorer media showed a larger change that was of higher significance. This negative correlation was strongly supported by experimental evidence that the serial transfer of the reduced genome improved the growth rate and reduced the mutation rate to a large extent. Taken together, the global parameters corresponding to the genome, growth, and mutation showed a coordinated relationship, which might be an essential working principle for balancing the cellular dynamics appropriate to the environment.

77 FR 11160 - Notice of a Change in Status of the Payable Periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-24

... Payable Periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC08) Program for Connecticut and... announces a change in status of the payable periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC08... unemployed workers claiming benefits in high unemployment states. The Department of Labor produces a trigger...

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

Changes According to Incubation Periods in Some Microbiological Characteristics at Soil Samples of Some Soil Series from the Gelemen Agricultural Administration

OpenAIRE

KARA, Emine Erman

1998-01-01

Changes according to incubation periods in some microbiological characteristics at soil samples of soil series from Gelemen Agricultural Administraction were investigated in this study. The results show that bacteria, actinomycet had values in the first periods of incubation (30ºC and field capacity) and in the following periods increased. However, fungus population changed depending upon series properties and reached maximum values 24th and 32th days after the beginning of incubation. During...

Cognitive changes in people with temporal lobe epilepsy over a 13-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Mameniškienė, Rūta; Rimšienė, Justė; Puronaitė, Roma

2016-10-01

The aims of our study were to evaluate cognitive decline in people with temporal lobe epilepsy over a period of 13years and to determine what clinical and treatment characteristics may have been associated with these. Thirty-three individuals with temporal lobe epilepsy underwent the same neuropsychological assessment of verbal and nonverbal memory, attention, and executive functions using the same cognitive test battery as one used 13years ago. Long-term verbal and nonverbal memory was tested four weeks later. Results were compared with those carried out 13years earlier. There was no significant change in verbal and verbal-logical memory tests; however, nonverbal memory worsened significantly. Long-term verbal memory declined for 21.9% of participants, long-term verbal-logical memory for 34.4%, and long-term nonverbal memory for 56.3%. Worsening of working verbal and verbal-logical memory was associated with longer epilepsy duration and lower levels of patients' education; worsening of verbal delayed recall and long-term verbal-logical memory was associated with higher seizure frequency. Decline in long-term nonverbal memory had significant association with a longer duration of epilepsy. The worsening of reaction and attention inversely correlated with the symptoms of depression. Over a 13-year period, cognitive functions did not change significantly. Good seizure control and reduced symptoms of depression in this sample of people with temporal lobe epilepsy were associated with better cognitive functioning. The predictors of change of cognitive functions could be complex and require further study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maturation of cortical mismatch responses to occasional pitch change in early infancy: effects of presentation rate and magnitude of change.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chao; Hotson, Lisa; Trainor, Laurel J

2009-01-01

Previous studies have reported two types of event-related potential (ERP) mismatch responses in infants to infrequent auditory changes: a broad discriminative positivity in younger infants and a negativity resembling adult mismatch negativity (MMN) in older infants. In the present study, we investigated whether the positive discriminative slow wave and the adult-like MMN are functionally distinct by examining how they are affected by presentation rate and magnitude of change. We measured ERPs from adults, 2-month-olds, and 4-month-olds to a repeating piano tone (standard) that occasionally changed in pitch (deviant). The pitch changes between standards and deviants were either small (1/12 octave) or large (1/2 octave) in magnitude, and the stimulus presentation rate was either slow (800 ms SOA) or fast (400 ms SOA). As the presentation rate increased, both adults and 4-month-olds showed an MMN response that decreased in latency, but was unaffected in amplitude. As the magnitude of the pitch change increased, MMN increased in amplitude. On the other hand, only a broad positive mismatch response was seen in 2-month-olds. As the presentation rate increased, 2-month-olds' responses to standard tones decreased in amplitude while their responses to deviant tones were unaffected. The magnitude of the pitch change did not affect 2-month-olds' responses. These results suggest that pitch is processed differently in auditory cortex by 2-month-olds and 4-month-olds, and that a cortical change-detection mechanism for pitch discrimination similar to that of adults emerges between 2 and 4 months of age.

Scientific periodical publications rating's calculation and analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. E. Nikitin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers the constructing problem of the food industry journals aggregate ratings. The streamlines of the seventeen magazines on four bibliometric indexes (SCIENCE INDEX, five-year impact factor RISC given the translated version without self-citations, h-index over 10 years and Herfindahl index, which are used in the scientific electronic library elibrary.ru was used as initial data. The statement of the problem refers to multi-criteria decision-making problems. Ranking the journals in these indexes are different from each other because bibliometric indicators account different aspects of the journals. The classical approach to thisproblems solution is based on generalized criterion building in the form of an additive convolution. However, this approach requires adherence to a number of regular conditions that may not always be performed when the practical problems solution. The reductionspossibility of the considered formulation in the form of multi-criteria decision-making tasks to the problem of collective choice. The aggregated ratings of the reporting journals are calculated by using the three social choice rules – Board procedure, Copeland procedures and Kemeny median heuristic procedures. On the basis of Spearman's rank correlation determined the quantitative evaluation of the degree of intimacy built in magazines. In particular, calculated on the basis of procedure, Board and Kemeny median aggregate ratings reporting in the logs coincided. The results showed that the constructed ordering of journals on the basis of social choice rules are in good agreement with the scientific electronic library (eLIBRARY bibliometric indicators.

78 FR 76626 - Privately Owned Vehicle Mileage Reimbursement Rates

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-18

... Procedure GSA posts the POV mileage reimbursement rates, formerly published in 41 CFR Chapter 301, solely on... official travel. Notices published periodically in the Federal Register, such as this one, and the changes... reimbursement rates for Federal agencies. Dated: December 12, 2013. Carolyn Austin-Diggs, Acting Deputy...

77 FR 2091 - Notice of a Change in Status of the Payable Periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-13

... Payable Periods in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC08) Program for Iowa and Oklahoma... Notice of a Change in Status of the payable period in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 (EUC08... unemployed workers claiming benefits in high unemployment states. The Department of Labor produces a trigger...

Distribution of the solute in the lithium niobate crystal grown by the Stepanov method in a periodically changing external electric field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhdanov, A.; Nikolayeva, L.; Red'kin, B.

2000-01-01

The Iithium niobate crystals with the periodic domain structure are characterised by the capacity for the light frequency adoption of the laser light. Consequently, they are promising for the development of compact light sources. There are several methods of producing periodic ferroelectric domain structures of the lithium niobate crystals in the growth process. It is evident that the main method of production of the periodic structures in the lithium niobate is the Stepanov method. The development of the mathematical model of the variation of the concentration of the alloying solute with the periodic variation of the conditions of growth of the crystal in the growth of the crystal by the Stepanov methods in the conditions of periodic changes of the drawing rate of the crystal V and the temperature of the thermal junction T have been investigated elsewhere. The formation of the domain structure is also possible in the case of the periodic variation of the electric field, during the supply of the alternating voltage between the shaper and the seed. In this work, we proposed mathematical model discounting the process of formation of the domain structure in the alternating electric field during the growth of the lithium niobate crystal by the Stepanov method. In the mathematical modelling we obtain the numerical solutions of the unidimensional nonstationary problem of the Stepanov type, the diffusion equation for concentration, and the Laplace capillary equation. The proposed mathematical model is at the present and the most complete and accurate description of the variation of the concentration of the solute in the growing crystal. The semi-discrete Galerkin method was used for the equations

Progressive changes in arch width from primary to early mixed dentition period: a longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sangwan, S; Chawla, H S; Goyal, A; Gauba, K; Mohanty, U

2011-01-01

The present study was conducted to evaluate, on a longitudinal basis, the changes in intercanine and intermolar widths form the primary to the early mixed dentition periods. A total of 38 children aged 4-5 years, with normal occlusion without any proximal caries or any dental anomalies, were selected. The impressions were recorded and casts were prepared. Intercanine and intermolar widths were measured on these dental casts with the help of a digital vernier calliper. After 3 years follow-up, the impressions were recorded again and dental casts were prepared. Intercanine and intermolar widths were measured again at this stage and were compared with the baseline data using the paired t-test and the chi square test. There is a significant increase in the intercanine (3.93 + 1.70 mm) and intermolar width (1.49 + 1.77 mm) during the transition period from primary to early mixed dentition in both the arches and both the sexes. The gender-wise comparison showed a greater increase in males than in females, but this was not statistically significant. A thorough knowledge of growth changes during various stages of the mixed dentition period are important for a pediatric dentist to make an accurate diagnosis and treatment planning during preventive and interceptive orthodontics.

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Won-Am Park

2008-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

Accretion by rotating magnetic neutron stars. III. Accretion torques and period changes in pulsating X-ray sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, P.; Lamb, F.K.

1979-01-01

We use the solutions of the two-dimensional hydromagnetic equations obtained previously to calculate the torque on a magnetic neutron star accreting from a Keplerian disk. We find that the magnetic coupling between the star and the plasma outside the inner edge of the disk is appreciable. As a result of this coupling the spin-up torque on fast rotators is substantially less than that on slow rotators; for sufficiently high stellar angular velocities or sufficiently low accretion rates this coupling dominates that de to the plasma and the magnetic field at the inner edge of the disk, braking the star's rotation even while accretion, and hence X-ray emission, continues.We apply these results to pulsating X-ray sources, and show that the observed secular spin-up rates of all the sources in which this rate has been measured can be accounted for quantitatively if one assumes that these sources are accreting from Keplerian disks and have magnetic moments approx.10 29 --10 32 gauss cm 3 . The reduction of the torque on fast rotators provides a natural explanation of the spin-up rate of Her X-1, which is much below that expected for slow rotators. We show further that a simple relation between the secular spin-up rate : P and the quantity PL/sup 3/7/ adequately represents almost all the observational data, P and L being the pulse period and the luminosity of the source, respectively. This ''universal'' relation enables one to estimate any one of the parameters P, P, and L for a given source if the other two are known. We show that the short-term period fluctuations observed in Her X-1, Cen X-3, Vela X-1, and X Per can be accounted for quite naturally as consequences of torque variations caused by fluctuations in the mass transfer rate. We also indicate how the spin-down torque at low luminosities found here may account for the paradoxical existence of a large number of long-period sources with short spin-up time scales

Change in self-rated general health is associated with perceived illness burden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Anni Brit Sternhagen; Jensen, Per; Gannik, Dorte Effersøe

2015-01-01

Background: iabetic patients’ lifestyle adaptations to improve glycaemic control are not always followed by improvements in self-rated general health (SRH). The perceived impact of diabetes on patients’ daily lives may influence changes in their SRH. This paper examines the association of illness...... diabetes-related symptoms, and cardiovascular disease were related to lower SRH ratings. On average SRH improved by 0.46 (95% CI: 0.37; 0.55) during the first year after diagnosis without inclusion of covariates. Mental and practical illness burden was the only factor associated with change in SRH...

Resonance of about-weekly human heart rate rhythm with solar activity change.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelissen, G; Halberg, F; Wendt, H W; Bingham, C; Sothern, R B; Haus, E; Kleitman, E; Kleitman, N; Revilla, M A; Revilla, M; Breus, T K; Pimenov, K; Grigoriev, A E; Mitish, M D; Yatsyk, G V; Syutkina, E V

1996-12-01

In several human adults, certain solar activity rhythms may influence an about 7-day rhythm in heart rate. When no about-weekly feature was found in the rate of change in sunspot area, a measure of solar activity, the double amplitude of a circadian heart rate rhythm, approximated by the fit of a 7-day cosine curve, was lower, as was heart rate corresponds to about-weekly features in solar activity and/or relates to a sunspot cycle.

48 CFR 52.216-15 - Predetermined Indirect Cost Rates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

.... (c) Allowability of costs and acceptability of cost allocation methods shall be determined in...) the period for which the rates apply, and (4) the specific items treated as direct costs or any changes in the items previously agreed to be direct costs. The indirect cost rate agreement shall not...

Asymmetric adaptations to energy price changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuper, G.H.; Van Soest, D.P.

1999-01-01

The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investment characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility that result in testable hypotheses concerning the relative values of substitution parameters and rates of technological change in periods of high and increasing energy prices and in periods of low prices. Estimation results for a panel of sectors of the Dutch economy show that the elasticity of substitution between energy and other inputs is low in periods of low energy prices, whereas it is significantly higher in the preceding period of high and increasing energy prices. Furthermore, energy-saving technological progress in periods of high and increasing energy prices is also significantly higher than if energy prices are low and falling. The regression results suggest that, due this asymmetric response of firms to changes in energy prices, taxing energy in the current period of low energy prices will not yield substantial reductions in energy use of Dutch industry. 21 refs

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, M.E.

2008-01-01

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase

Prevalence and rates of intimate partner violence among South African women during pregnancy and the postpartum period

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, Allison K.; Moodley, Dhayendre; McNaughton-Reyes, Luz; Martin, Sandra L.; Foshee, Vangie; Maman, Suzanne

2014-01-01

Objectives Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem in South Africa. However, limited research exists on IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence, rates and correlates of IPV among South African women during pregnancy and the first nine months postpartum. Methods Data are from a longitudinal study with women recruited during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010 at a public clinic in Durban. We used a modified version of the World Health Organization’s IPV scale to estimate prevalence and rates of IPV during pregnancy, at four months postpartum and nine months postpartum and we used logistic regression to assess the correlates of IPV during this time. Results More than 20% of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during pregnancy. Nearly one-quarter of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during the first nine months postpartum. Psychological IPV was the most prevalent type of IPV during pregnancy and the first four months postpartum. Age and previous violence within the relationship were associated with IPV during pregnancy and IPV during the postpartum period. Conclusions The high levels of IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period highlight the need to develop screening and intervention strategies specifically for this time. Further, women should be screened not only for physical violence but also psychological violence given that psychological violence may result in distinct negative consequences. PMID:24889116

Calculations of Changes in Reactivity during some regular periods of operation of JEN-1 MOD Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcala Ruiz, F.

1973-01-01

By a Point-Reactor model and Perturbation Theory, changes in reactivity during some regular operating periods of JEN-1 MOD Reactor have been calculated and compared with available measured values. they were in good agreement. Also changes in reactivity have been calculated during operations at higher power levels than the present one, concluding some practical consequences for the case of increasing the present power of this reactor. (Author)

Changes in growth and sleep across school nights, weekends and a winter holiday period in two Australian schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Agostini, Alex; Pignata, Silvia; Camporeale, Roberta; Scott, Kathryn; Dorrian, Jillian; Way, Anne; Ryan, Paul; Martin, James; Kennedy, Declan; Lushington, Kurt

2018-01-26

Studies suggest that there may be an association between sleep and growth; however, the relationship is not well understood. Changes in biology and external factors such as school schedule heavily impact the sleep of adolescents, during a critical phase for growth. This study assessed the changes in sleep across school days, weekends and school holidays, while also measuring height and weight changes, and self-reported alterations in food intake and physical activity. The impact of morningness-eveningness (M-E) on height change and weight gain was also investigated. In a sample of 63 adolescents (mean age = 13.13, SD = 0.33, 31 males) from two independent schools in South Australia, height and weight were measured weekly for 4 weeks prior to the school holidays and 4 weeks after the school holidays. Participants also completed a Morningness/Eveningness Scale and 7-day sleep, diet and physical activity diaries prior to, during and after the school holidays. Participants at one school had earlier wake times during the weekends than participants attending the other school, leading to a significantly shorter sleep duration on weekends for those participants. Regardless of school, sleep was significantly later and longer during the holidays (p holiday weeks. For those attending the school with limited sleep in opportunities, growth after the holidays was lower for those with greater evening preference, whereas for those at the other school, growth was greater for those with greater evening preference. The increase in average weight from pre- to post-holidays was greater for those attending the school with limited opportunities to sleep longer. Participants reported greater food intake during the holidays compared to school days and greater physical activity levels on weekends compared to school days, and school days compared to holidays. Results suggest that time of day preference may impact growth, with evening types who cannot sleep in growing at a slower rate

China; Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

OpenAIRE

Tao Wang

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are as important ...

High cloud variations with surface temperature from 2002 to 2015: Contributions to atmospheric radiative cooling rate and precipitation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Run; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Su, Hui; Gu, Yu; Zhao, Bin; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Liu, Shaw Chen

2017-05-01

The global mean precipitation is largely constrained by atmospheric radiative cooling rates (Qr), which are sensitive to changes in high cloud fraction. We investigate variations of high cloud fraction with surface temperature (Ts) from July 2002 to June 2015 and compute their radiative effects on Qr using the Fu-Liou-Gu plane-parallel radiation model. We find that the tropical mean (30°S-30°N) high cloud fraction decreases with increasing Ts at a rate of about -1.0 ± 0.34% K-1 from 2002 to 2015, which leads to an enhanced atmospheric cooling around 0.86 W m-2 K-1. On the other hand, the northern midlatitudes (30°N-60°N) high cloud fraction increases with surface warming at a rate of 1.85 ± 0.65% K-1 and the near-global mean (60°S-60°N) high cloud fraction shows a statistically insignificant decreasing trend with increasing Ts over the analysis period. Dividing high clouds into cirrus, cirrostratus, and deep convective clouds, we find that cirrus cloud fraction increases with surface warming at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.11% K-1 (0.01 ± 0.17% K-1) for the near-global mean (tropical mean), while cirrostratus and deep convective clouds decrease with surface warming at a rate of -0.02 ± 0.18% K-1 and -0.33 ± 0.18% K-1 for the near-global mean and -0.64 ± 0.23% K-1 and -0.37 ± 0.13% K-1 for the tropical mean, respectively. High cloud fraction response to feedback to Ts accounts for approximately 1.9 ± 0.7% and 16.0 ± 6.1% of the increase in precipitation per unit surface warming over the period of 2002-2015 for the near-global mean and the tropical mean, respectively.

Rate of Change in Lake Level and its Impact on Reservoir-triggered Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, D. W.

2017-12-01

With recent interest in increased seismicity related to fluid injection, it is useful to review cases of reservoir-triggered earthquakes to explore common characteristics and seek ways to mitigate the influence of anthropogenic impacts. Three reservoirs - Koyna, India; Nurek, Tajikistan; and Aswan, Egypt - are well-documented cases of triggered earthquakes with recorded time series of seismicity and water levels that extend for more than 30 years. The geological setting, regional tectonics and modes of reservoir utilization, along with the characteristics of the reservoir-seismicity interaction, are distinctly different in each of these three cases. Similarities and differences between these three cases point to regional and local geological and hydrological structures and the rate of changes in reservoir water level as important factors controlling the presence and timing of triggered seismicity. In a manner similar to the way in which the rate of fluid injection influences injection-related seismicity, the rate of change in reservoir water level is a significant factor in determining whether or not reservoir-triggered seismicity occurs. The high rate of annual water level rise may be important in sustaining the exceptionally long sequence of earthquakes at Koyna. In addition to the rate of filling being a determining factor in whether or not earthquakes are triggered, changes in the rate of filling may influence the time of occurrence of individual earthquakes.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN TÂRGU-MURES (ROMANIA FROM PERIOD 1951-2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.Rusz

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Temperature and precipitation changes in Târgu Mures (Romania from period 1951-2010. The analysis was made based upon meteorological data collected at Târgu Mures meteorological station (Romania, Mures county, lat. 46°32’N, lon. 24°32’E, elevation 308 m, between 1951 and 2010. Several climatic parameters were studied (for instance, annual and monthly mean temperature, maximum precipitation in 24 hours, number of summer days, etc. Detected inhomogeneities are not related to instrumental causes or geographical relocation. Positive and statistical significant trends (Mann-Kendall test are indicated for: mean annual temperatures, mean temperatures of warm months, average of the maximum and minimum temperatures (annual and warm months data, number of days with mean temperature between 20.1-25.0 °C, number of days with precipitation ≥0 mm, and for all parameters of precipitation of September. The sequential version of Mann-Kendall test show a beginning of a trend in 1956 in the case of mean temperature (at same, the two and three parts regression denote this year like a moment of change, years 1965 and 1992 in the case of annual amount of precipitation. CUSUM charts indicate occurs of changes points at 1988, 2005, 2009 (mean temperature respectively at 1989, 2004 (precipitation, and at 1968, 1992 (daily temperature range. Tendencies of overlapped time series reveal a more important increase at the end of period (mainly for mean temperature. The analysis with RClimDex show for 5 extreme climate indices a significant trend: positive for summer days, warm nights, warm spell duration indicator and negative for cold nights and cold days.

Technical changes and the rate of profit in the Canadian wood, furniture, and paper industries

OpenAIRE

M Webber; S Tonkin

1988-01-01

In this paper the rate of profit is examined and the components of changes in the rate of profit are identified in the wood, furniture, and paper industries of Canada for the years 1952 to 1981. The rate of profit in the wood industry generally rose, until a dramatic fall since 1979 onwards; this fall was largely due to a collapse of market prices and to the effects of that collapse on the technical composition of capital (via changes in the rate of capacity utilization). Profit rates in the ...

Seasonal and daily fluctuation of diatoms during spring tide periods in Kerkennah Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mounir Ben brahim

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: To study seasonal and the daily distribution of diatoms in the three tidal periods (flood, slack and ebb period during the spring tide. Methods: Water samples were taken and environmental variables were measured three times in each tidal period during 10 days of spring tide. Sampling was done in 2007 in Cercina station located in the western coast of Kerkennah (34°41'27'' N; 11°07'45'' E (Southern Tunisia. Results: Nutrients showed significant variation between seasons, increasing in spring and decreasing noticeably in autumn and winter. About 36 diatom species were found. Results revealed a remarkable abundance increase in spring and summer. Irregular differences in diatom abundances were revealed over the tidal periods, with the highest rates being detected during the flood and the ebb period, while the abundance rate was lowest during the slack period. This could presumably be attributed to the increase of nutrient supply of suspended particulate matter during water motion. The results revealed a correlation between diatom abundance and temperature, NO2 - , NO3 - , Si(OH4 and PO4 3 . Temperature seemed to be the most important factors which may influence the distribution and diatom abundance. Conclusions: Tide has various effects on the nutrients status and diatoms community (in terms of species composition, succession and abundance between different tidal periods. Fluctuation of diatoms was correlated with changes in the circulation of water bodies and changes in nutrient regime.

God-Mediated Control and Change in Self-Rated Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Neal

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to see if feelings of God-mediated control are associated with change in self-rated health over time. In the process, an effort was made to see if a sense of meaning in life and optimism mediated the relationship between God-mediated control and change in health. The following hypothesized relationships were contained in the conceptual model that was developed to evaluate these issues: (1) people who go to church more often tend to have stronger God-mediated control beliefs than individuals who do not attend worship services as often; (2) people with a strong sense of God-mediated control are more likely to find a sense of meaning in life and be more optimistic than individuals who do not have a strong sense of God-mediated control; (3) people who are optimistic and who have a strong sense of meaning in life will rate their health more favorably over time than individuals who are not optimistic, as well as individuals who have not found a sense of meaning in life. Data from a longitudinal nationwide survey of older adults provided support for each of these hypotheses.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2014-01-01

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate. (letter)

Earthquake potential in California-Nevada implied by correlation of strain rate and seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-01-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

The Secret Lives of Cepheids: Evolution, Mass-Loss, and Ultraviolet Emission of the Long-period Classical Cepheid

Science.gov (United States)

Neilson, Hilding R.; Engle, Scott G.; Guinan, Edward F.; Bisol, Alexandra C.; Butterworth, Neil

2016-06-01

The classical Cepheid l Carinae is an essential calibrator of the Cepheid Leavitt Law as a rare long-period Galactic Cepheid. Understanding the properties of this star will also constrain the physics and evolution of massive (M ≥ 8 M ⊙) Cepheids. The challenge, however, is precisely measuring the star's pulsation period and its rate of period change. The former is important for calibrating the Leavitt Law and the latter for stellar evolution modeling. In this work, we combine previous time-series observations spanning more than a century with new observations to remeasure the pulsation period and compute the rate of period change. We compare our new rate of period change with stellar evolution models to measure the properties of l Car, but find models and observations are, at best, marginally consistent. The results imply that l Car does not have significantly enhanced mass-loss rates like that measured for δ Cephei. We find that the mass of l Car is about 8-10 M ⊙. We present Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph observations that also differ from measurements for δ Cep and β Dor. These measurements further add to the challenge of understanding the physics of Cepheids, but do hint at the possible relation between enhanced mass-loss and ultraviolet emission, perhaps both due to the strength of shocks propagating in the atmospheres of Cepheids. Based on observations made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555. These observations are associated with program #13019. This work is also based on observations obtained with XMM-Newton, an ESA science mission with instruments and contributions directly funded by ESA Member States and the USA (NASA), associated with program #060374.

Pricing Strategies in the Remanufacturing Market for the Uncertain Market Size in the Second Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liurui Deng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Our main endeavor is to investigate the effect of the uncertain market size in the second period on the pricing strategies in the remanufacturing market. Observing the previous research, we find that the market size in the second period is always supposed to be certain. However, there is substantial empirical and experimental evidence that the market size in reality deviates from this assumption. In fact, though the market size in the first period is definitized, it is difficult to confirm the change of the market scale in the second period, since this change is affected by all kinds of elements, such as the awareness of environmental protection, some consumers’ psychological factors, and the related governments’ policies. Hence, we pay attention to the case in which the change rate of the market scale in the second period is random variable. We suppose that this rate satisfies uniform distribution on [0,2]. Underlying this assumption, we further provide an insight into the game-playing relationship between original equipment manufacturers (OEMs and remanufacturers. Moreover, we delicately and subtly incorporate the game theory, stochastic analysis, adversarial risk analysis (ARA, and optimization methods into the pricing strategies in the remanufacturing market. Last but not least, considerable efforts and attempts have been made to subtly test the sensitivity of an optimal solution to the different parameters.

Change in Population Characteristics and Teen Birth Rates in 77 Community Areas: Chicago, Illinois, 1999-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunaratne, Shauna; Masinter, Lisa; Kolak, Marynia; Feinglass, Joe

2015-01-01

We analyzed community area differences in teen births in Chicago, Illinois, from 1999 to 2009. We analyzed the association between changes in teen birth rates and concurrent measures of community area socioeconomic and demographic change. Mean annual changes in teen birth rates in 77 Chicago community areas were correlated with concurrent census-based population changes during the decade. Census measures included changes in race/ethnicity, adult high school dropouts, poverty or higher-income households, crowded housing, unemployment, English proficiency, foreign-born residents, or residents who moved in the last five years. We included non-collinear census measures with a pbirths in a stepwise multiple linear regression model. Teen birth rates in Chicago fell faster than the overall birth rates, from 85 births per 1,000 teens in 1999 to 57 births per 1,000 teens in 2009. There were strong positive associations between increases in the percentage of residents who were black and Hispanic, poor, without a high school diploma, and living in crowded housing, and a negative association with an increase in higher-income households. Population changes in poverty, Hispanic population, and high school dropouts were the only significant measures in the final model, explaining almost half of the variance in teen birth rate changes. The study provides a model of census-based measures that can be used to evaluate predicted vs. observed rates of change in teen births across communities, offering the potential to more appropriately prioritize public health resources for preventing unintended teen pregnancy.

Designing container shipping network under changing demand and freight rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Chen

2010-03-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on the optimization of container shipping network and its operations under changing cargo demand and freight rates. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem (MINP with an objective of maximizing the average unit ship-slot profit at three stages using analytical methodology. The issues such as empty container repositioning, ship-slot allocating, ship sizing, and container configuration are simultaneously considered based on a series of the matrices of demand for a year. To solve the model, a bi-level genetic algorithm based method is proposed. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and algorithms. The obtained results show that the suggested model can provide a more realistic solution to the issues on the basis of changing demand and freight rates and arrange a more effective approach to the optimization of container shipping network structures and operations than does the model based on the average demand.

Frequency and changes in trends of leading risk factors of coronary heart disease in women in the city of Novi Sad during a 20-year period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakić Dušica

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Backround/Aim. From 1984 to 2004 the city of Novi Sad participated through its Health Center “Novi Sad” in the international Multinational MONItoring of Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease (MONICA project, as one of the 38 research centers in 21 countries around the world. The aim of this study was to determine frequency and changes of trends in leading risk factors of coronary heart disease (CHD and to analyze the previous trend of movement of coronary event in women in Novi Sad during a 20- year period. Methods. In 2004, the fourth survey within MONICA project was conducted in the city of Novi Sad. The representative sample included 1,041 women between the age of 25 and 74. The prevalence of risk factors in CHD such as smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood cholesterol, elevated blood glucose and obesity was determined. Also, indicators of risk factors and rates of coronary events in women were compared with the results from MONICA project obtained in previous three screens, as well as with the results from other research centres. χ2-test, linear trend and correlartion coefficient were used in statistical analysis of results obtained. Results. It was observed that during a 20-year period covered by the study, the prevalence of the leading risk factors for the development of CHD in the surveyed women was significantly increasing and in positive correlation with the values of linear trend. Also, the increase of morbidity rates and mortality rates of coronary event were in positive correlation. The decrease was only recorded in the period from 1985-1989 (the implementation of the intervention programme. Conclusion. Upon analysing the increase in prevalence of leading risk factors of CHD and significant increase in the rates of coronary event, we can conclude that health status of women in Novi Sad during a 20-year period was deteriorating.

Progressive changes in arch width from primary to early mixed dentition period: A longitudinal study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Sangwan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: The present study was conducted to evaluate, on a longitudinal basis, the changes in intercanine and intermolar widths form the primary to the early mixed dentition periods. Materials and Methods: A total of 38 children aged 4-5 years, with normal occlusion without any proximal caries or any dental anomalies, were selected. The impressions were recorded and casts were prepared. Intercanine and intermolar widths were measured on these dental casts with the help of a digital vernier calliper. After 3 years follow-up, the impressions were recorded again and dental casts were prepared. Intercanine and intermolar widths were measured again at this stage and were compared with the baseline data using the paired t-test and the chi square test. Results: There is a significant increase in the intercanine (3.93 + 1.70 mm and intermolar width (1.49 + 1.77 mm during the transition period from primary to early mixed dentition in both the arches and both the sexes. The gender-wise comparison showed a greater increase in males than in females, but this was not statistically significant. Conclusion: A thorough knowledge of growth changes during various stages of the mixed dentition period are important for a pediatric dentist to make an accurate diagnosis and treatment planning during preventive and interceptive orthodontics.

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), pMumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quarterly inflation rate target and forecasts in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela Simionescu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, we proposed some inflation rate predictions based on econometric models that performed better than the targets of the National Bank of Romania. Few econometric models (multiple regressions model and a vector-autoregression were used to predict the quarterly inflation rate in Romania during 2000:Q1-2016:Q4. The GDP growth has a negative impact on inflation rate in Romania, an increase in logarithm of GDP with one percentage point determining a decrease in inflation logarithm with less than 0.1 units according to both proposed models. However, an increase in inflation rate in the previous period determined an increase in this variable in the current period. The inverse of unemployment rate is positively correlated with the index of prices. The causal relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate is reciprocal. In the first period the index of prices evolution is explained only by changes in this variable. The inflation rate volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, the influence decreasing insignificantly in time, not descending under 88%. More than 99% of the variation in unemployment rate is explained by the own volatility for all lags. The annual forecasts based on these models performed better than the targets on the horizon 2015-2016.

Change in body weight of mothers and neonates and in milk composition during denning period in captive Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus japonicus).

Science.gov (United States)

Iibuchi, Ruriko; Nakano, Noriko; Nakamura, Tadashi; Urashima, Tadasu; Shimozuru, Michito; Murase, Tetsuma; Tsubota, Toshio

2009-05-01

Japanese black bears, Ursus thibetanus japonicus, have been classified as a vulnerable species so that data on reproduction are needed to maintain and/or extend their population. They are known to have a peculiar style of reproduction, giving birth to their neonates and raising them during denning, a period of complete fasting. In this study, we investigated the metabolic rate and milk composition of mother bears raising neonates, and the changes in body weight of the neonates under captive conditions. Seven female bears kept in dens were weighed once a month, and the amount of energy they used was calculated. From birth, cubs were also weighed and their growth rate was determined. In addition, the milk composition was analyzed to investigate its characteristics. As a result, it was found that mother bears used 34% more energy than did solitary females. There was no significant difference in the energy used for nursing whether they had single or twin cubs. On the other hand, the body weight gain of single cubs was significantly higher than that of twin cubs, suggesting that the growth of the cubs was highly affected by the suppression of mother's energy consumption during the fasting period. The milk had high fat and low sugar concentrations. This indicates that mother bears used the fat accumulated prior to denning for their main energy source when raising cubs. Considering all results together, Japanese black bears showed remarkable efficiency in the use of energy for reproduction during the fasting period.

Threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price. Evidence from OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Ting-Huan; Huang, Chien-Ming; Lee, Ming-Chih

2009-01-01

This paper uses a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to investigate the influence that energy prices have on renewable energy development under different economic growth rate regimes. The empirical data are obtained from each of the OECD member-countries over the period from 1997 to 2006. We show that there is one threshold in the regression relationship, which is 4.13% of a one-period lag in the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The consumer price index (CPI), in so far as it relates to variations in energy, is significantly positively correlated with the contribution of renewables to energy supply in the regime with higher-economic growth, but there is no relationship in the regime with lower economic growth. Therefore, countries characterized by high-economic growth are able to respond to high energy prices with increases in renewable energy use, while countries characterized by low-economic growth countries tend to be unresponsive to energy price changes when they come to their level of renewable energy. (author)

A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

OpenAIRE

Pierluigi Balduzzi; Giuseppe Bertola; Silverio Foresi

1993-01-01

We explore the effects of official targeting policy on the term-structure of nominal interest rates, adapting relevant insights from theoretical work on "peso problems" to account for realistic infrequency of target changes. Our analysis of daily U.S. interest rates and newly available historical targets provides an interpretation for persistent spreads between short-term money-market rates and overnight fed-funds targets, and for the poor performance of expectations-hypothesis tests: it is t...

Major Changes in Growth Rate and Growth Variability of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L. Related to Soil Alteration and Climate Change in Belgium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Latte

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Global change—particularly climate change, forest management, and atmospheric deposition—has significantly altered forest growing conditions in Europe. The influences of these changes on beech growth (Fagus sylvatica L. were investigated for the past 80 years in Belgium, using non-linear mixed effects models on ring-width chronologies of 149 mature and dominant beech trees (87–186 years old. The effects of the developmental stage (i.e., increasing tree size were filtered out in order to focus on time-dependent growth changes. Beech radial growth was divided into a low-frequency signal (=growth rate, mainly influenced by forest management and atmospheric deposition, and into a high-frequency variability (≈mean sensitivity, mainly influenced by climate change. Between 1930 and 2008, major long-term and time-dependent changes were highlighted. The beech growth rate has decreased by about 38% since the 1950–1960s, and growth variability has increased by about 45% since the 1970–1980s. Our results indicate that (1 before the 1980s, beech growth rate was not predominantly impacted by climate change but rather by soil alteration (i.e., soil compaction and/or nitrogen deposition; and (2 since the 1980s, climate change induced more frequent and intense yearly growth reductions that amplified the growth rate decrease. The highlighted changes were similar in the two ecoregions of Belgium, although more pronounced in the lowlands than in the uplands.

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Radiation-induced inheritable changes in the death-rate of cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bychkovskaya, I.B.; Ochinskaya, G.K.

1980-01-01

By the use of an original technique (regeneration of individual lines from sister cells) it was demonstrated on various individually cultivated protozoa (Amoeba proteus, Paramecium caudatum and Climacostomum virens) that even weak direct and indirect radiation effects can induce an appreciable increase in the death-rate of descendants. After a certain dose threshold, the effect did not depend on the power of the attack and remained at the same level for as long as 3 years. The observed changes were qualitatively different from known types of inheritable changes leading to cell death

Prevalence, rates and correlates of intimate partner violence among South African women during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

Science.gov (United States)

Groves, Allison K; Moodley, Dhayendre; McNaughton-Reyes, Luz; Martin, Sandra L; Foshee, Vangie; Maman, Suzanne

2015-03-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant public health problem in South Africa. However, limited research exists on IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence, rates and correlates of IPV among South African women during pregnancy and the first 9 months postpartum. Data are from a longitudinal study with women recruited during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010 at a public clinic in Durban. We used a modified version of the World Health Organization's IPV scale to estimate prevalence and rates of IPV during pregnancy, at 4 months postpartum and 9 months postpartum and we used logistic regression to assess the correlates of IPV during this time. More than 20 % of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during pregnancy. Nearly one-quarter of all women experienced at least one act of physical, psychological or sexual IPV during the first 9 months postpartum. Psychological IPV was the most prevalent type of IPV during pregnancy and the first 4 months postpartum. Age and previous violence within the relationship were associated with IPV during pregnancy and IPV during the postpartum period. The high levels of IPV during pregnancy and the postpartum period highlight the need to develop screening and intervention strategies specifically for this time. Further, women should be screened not only for physical violence but also psychological violence given that psychological violence may result in distinct negative consequences.

Age-period-cohort analysis of suicides among Japanese 1950-2003: a Bayesian cohort model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ooe, Yosuke; Ohno, Yuko; Nakamura, Takashi

2009-07-01

The suicide rate in Japan is one of the highest in the world and presents us with a considerable challenge. Demographic statistics show that the number of suicides is on the rise, and at roughly 30,000 people per year have committed suicide since 1998. Suicide trends are not only related to economic boom and bust but also to certain generations and age groups. During the 1950s, there was a remarkably high suicide rate among people in their 20s, and this cohort was identical to that of the middle-age generation in the 1980s. It is important to separately understand both the trend of suicide rates and the numbers analyzed to determine the different factors that influence suicide. These include age, time period, cohort, interaction between age and time period, and changes in population composition. We performed an age-period-cohort analysis of annual trends of suicide rates by age group in Japan using a Bayesian cohort model. With the help of the Nakamura method, we have been able to break down the effects of age, time period, cohort, and the age-by-period interaction. The cohort comprised of people born in the 1930s demonstrated a relatively high suicide rate. Men currently in their 50s also belong to a high suicide rate cohort. Regarding the period effect, business cycles and by-period interaction effect, it became apparent that the high suicide rate among young adults in their early 20s around 1960 was slowing, especially among men. Instead, there was an obvious recent trend for men in their late 50s to have the highest suicide rate. This study confirmed that age-period-cohort analysis can describe these trends of suicide mortality of the Japanese.

Heart rate variability during sleep in healthy term newborns in the early postnatal period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, O M; Korotchikova, I; Boylan, G B; Lightbody, G; Marnane, W; Kerins, D

2009-01-01

Normative time- and frequency-domain heart rate variability (HRV) measures were extracted during quiet sleep (QS) and active sleep (AS) periods in 30 healthy babies. All newborn infants studied were less than 12 h old and the sleep state was classified using multi-channel video EEG. Three bands were extracted from the heart rate (HR) spectrum: very low frequency (VLF), 0.01–0.04 Hz; low frequency (LF), 0.04–0.2 Hz, and high frequency (HF), >0.2 Hz. All metrics were averaged across all patients and per sleep state to produce a table of normative values. A noticeable peak corresponding to activity in the RSA band was found in 80% patients during QS and 0% of patients during AS, although some broadband activity was observed. The majority of HRV metrics showed a statistically significant separation between QS and AS. It can be concluded that (i) activity in the RSA band is present during QS in the healthy newborn, in the first 12 h of life, (ii) HRV measures are affected by sleep state and (iii) the averaged HRV metrics reported here could assist the interpretation of HRV data from newborns with neonatal illnesses

Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2016-10-01

Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

On climate change and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fankhauser, Samuel; Tol, Richard S.J.

2005-01-01

The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we take a closer look at these dynamic effects, in particular saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect) and, in almost all cases, future consumption per capita. If the savings rate is endogenous, forward looking agents would change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. This suppresses growth prospects in absolute and per capita terms (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, these two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if technological change is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced. The dynamic effects are more important, relative to the direct effects, if climate change impacts are moderate overall. This suggests that they are more of a concern in developed countries, which are believed to be less vulnerable to climate change. The magnitude of dynamic effects is not sensitive to the choice of discount rate

Changes in cognitive functions of students in the transitional period from elementary school to junior high school.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Kei; Tanaka, Masaaki; Fukuda, Sanae; Sasabe, Tetsuya; Imai-Matsumura, Kyoko; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

2011-05-01

When students proceed to junior high school from elementary school, rapid changes in the environment occur, which may cause various behavioral and emotional problems. However, the changes in cognitive functions during this transitional period have rarely been studied. In 158 elementary school students from 4th- to 6th-grades and 159 junior high school students from 7th- to 9th-grades, we assessed various cognitive functions, including motor processing, spatial construction ability, semantic fluency, immediate memory, delayed memory, spatial and non-spatial working memory, and selective, alternative, and divided attention. Our findings showed that performance on spatial and non-spatial working memory, alternative attention, divided attention, and semantic fluency tasks improved from elementary to junior high school. In particular, performance on alternative and divided attention tasks improved during the transitional period from elementary to junior high school. Our finding suggests that development of alternative and divided attention is of crucial importance in the transitional period from elementary to junior high school. Copyright © 2010 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dietary changes during pregnancy and the postpartum period in Singaporean Chinese, Malay and Indian women: the GUSTO birth cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ling-Wei; Low, Yen Ling; Fok, Doris; Han, Wee Meng; Chong, Yap Seng; Gluckman, Peter; Godfrey, Keith; Kwek, Kenneth; Saw, Seang-Mei; Soh, Shu E; Tan, Kok Hian; Chong, Mary Foong Fong; van Dam, Rob M

2014-09-01

To examine changes in food consumption during pregnancy and the postpartum period in women of major Asian ethnic groups. Using interviewer-administered questionnaires, we assessed changes in food consumption during pregnancy (26-28 weeks' gestation) and the postpartum period (3 weeks after delivery) as compared with the usual pre-pregnancy diet. Singapore. Pregnant women (n 1027) of Chinese, Malay and Indian ethnicity (mean age 30·4 (SD 5·2) years) who participated in the Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) study. During pregnancy, participants tended to increase their consumption of milk, fruit and vegetables and decrease their consumption of tea, coffee, soft drinks and seafood (all P postpartum period (Chinese: 94·8 %, Malay: 91·6 %, Indian: 79·6 %). During the postpartum period, participants tended to increase their consumption of fish and milk-based drinks and decrease their consumption of noodles, seafood, and chocolates and sweets (all P postpartum period. For example, most Chinese participants (87·2 %) increased their ginger consumption during the postpartum period as compared with smaller percentages of Malays (31·8 %) and Indians (40·8 %; P for ethnic difference postpartum period. Traditional beliefs should be considered in interventions to improve dietary intakes during these periods.

The Preparation Period in Basketball: Training Load and Neuromuscular Adaptations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferioli, Davide; Bosio, Andrea; Bilsborough, Johann C; Torre, Antonio La; Tornaghi, Michele; Rampinini, Ermanno

2018-01-18

To investigate the 1) effect of the preparation period on the neuromuscular characteristics of 12 professional (PRO) and 16 semi-professional (SEMI-PRO) basketball players; 2) relationships between training load indices and changes in neuromuscular physical performance. Prior to and following the preparation period, players underwent a counter-movement jump (CMJ) test, followed by a repeated change of direction (COD) test consisting of 4 levels with increasing intensities. The peripheral neuromuscular functions of the knee extensors (peak torque, PT) were measured using electrical stimulations after each level (PT1, PT2, PT3 and PT4). Furthermore, PT Max (the highest value of PT) and PT Dec (PT decrement from PT Max to PT4) were calculated. Trivial-to-small (effect size, ES: -0.17 to 0.46) improvements were found in CMJ variables, regardless of the competitive levels. After the preparation period, peripheral fatigue induced by a COD test was similarly reduced in both PRO (PT Dec: from 27.8±21.3% to 11.4±13.7%, ES±90%CI= -0.71±0.30) and SEMI-PRO (PT Dec: from 26.1±21.9% to 10.2±8.2%, ES±90%CI= -0.69±0.32). Moderate-to-large relationships were found between session rating of perceived exertion training load and changes in PPO measured during the CMJs (r s ±90%CI: PPOabs, -0.46±0.26; PPOrel, -0.53±0.23) and in some PTs measured during the COD test (PT1, -0.45±0.26; PT2, -0.44±0.26; PT3, -0.40±0.27 and PT Max, -0.38±0.28). Preparation period induced minimal changes in the CMJ, while the ability to sustain repeated COD efforts was improved. Reaching high session rating of perceived exertion training loads might partially and negatively affect the ability to produce strength and power.

Growth rate change driven by external perturbation in the azuki bean weevil

CERN Document Server

Fukano, T

2003-01-01

In laboratory experiments we obtain that the apparent growth rate of the population becomes larger than one under the normal condition, triggered by the external perturbation as the removal of individuals. The changed growth rate is stable for a while. We also propose a simple model of population dynamics allowing both matching and mis-matching the trend of the external perturbation, and show that the growth rate of the model population is changeable and stable to some extent.

Growth rate change driven by external perturbation in the azuki bean weevil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukano, Takao; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio

2003-01-01

In laboratory experiments we obtain that the apparent growth rate of the population becomes larger than one under the normal condition, triggered by the external perturbation as the removal of individuals. The changed growth rate is stable for a while. We also propose a simple model of population dynamics allowing both matching and mis-matching the trend of the external perturbation, and show that the growth rate of the model population is changeable and stable to some extent

Trade Adjustments to Exchange Rate Changes by Japanese Manufacturing MNEs: Intra-firm and arm's length transactions

OpenAIRE

ANDO Mitsuyo; KIMURA Fukunari

2013-01-01

This paper examines how Japanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) adjust to exchange rate changes. Using the micro-data of Japanese manufacturing MNEs from 1994 to 2010, we find that exports tend to respond to exchange rate changes, in particular when wholly or majority-owned affiliates are dominant among their foreign affiliates and when intra-firm trade ratios are higher. Moreover, the responsiveness to exchange rate changes is higher for intra-firm exports than for total expo...

Patterns of mortality rates in Darfur conflict.

Science.gov (United States)

Degomme, Olivier; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2010-01-23

Several mortality estimates for the Darfur conflict have been reported since 2004, but few accounted for conflict dynamics such as changing displacement and causes of deaths. We analyse changes over time for crude and cause-specific mortality rates, and assess the effect of displacement on mortality rates. Retrospective mortality surveys were gathered from an online database. Quasi-Poisson models were used to assess mortality rates with place and period in which the survey was done, and the proportions of displaced people in the samples were the explanatory variables. Predicted mortality rates for five periods were computed and applied to population data taken from the UN's series about Darfur to obtain the number of deaths. 63 of 107 mortality surveys met all criteria for analysis. Our results show significant reductions in mortality rates from early 2004 to the end of 2008, although rates were higher during deployment of fewer humanitarian aid workers. In general, the reduction in rate was more important for violence-related than for diarrhoea-related mortality. Displacement correlated with increased rates of deaths associated with diarrhoea, but also with reduction in violent deaths. We estimated the excess number of deaths to be 298 271 (95% CI 178 258-461 520). Although violence was the main cause of death during 2004, diseases have been the cause of most deaths since 2005, with displaced populations being the most susceptible. Any reduction in humanitarian assistance could lead to worsening mortality rates, as was the case between mid 2006 and mid 2007. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Revised predictions of long-period ocean tidal effects on Earth's rotation rate

Science.gov (United States)

Dickman, S. R.; Nam, Young S.

1995-01-01

The rotational response of Earth to long-period tidal forces, embodied in a 'zonal response function,' can be expected to vary with frequency because of variable contributions by the oceans, mantle, and core. The zonal response function has been estimated from 9 years of International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) universal time (UT1) data and compared with theoretical predictions, using a spherical harmonic tide model to compute the oceans' dynamic response, at semiannual, monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunisolar tidal frequencies. Different amounts of mantle anelasticity have been considered for both the oceanic and soild earth responses; predictions have been made assuming axial core-mantle coupling which is either complete or absent. Additionally, an extensive recalibration of the ocean model's frictional parameters was performed using constraints derived in part from Space92 polar motion data; zonal response function predictions have also been made employing this recalibrated ocean tide model. Our results indicate that any amount of core coupling can be ruled out at a fortnightly period and probably at a 9-day period, but not at a monthly period. Our results also suggest that the mantle responds purely elastically at a 9-day period but may behave increasingly anelastically at longer periods. A simple dispersive rule is postulated for periods ranging up to the 14-month Chandler wobble period.

Predicting changes in reported notifiable disease rates for New Zealand using a SIR modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

McBride, Graham; Slaney, David; Tait, Andrew

2013-04-01

The New Zealand health system has defined as 'notifiable' over 50 diseases. Of these campylobacteriosis is the most commonly reported comprising 41% of all notifications in 2011 (presently about 150 illness cases per 100,000 population per annum). Furthermore, the incidence of this mild illness, which is potentially waterborne, is under-reported by at least an order-of-magnitude. Increased downstream pathogen loads and/or disease incidence have been found to be associated with increased rainfall, particularly in agricultural landscapes. Therefore, given the predominance of agricultural land uses in New Zealand, transmission and exposure to its agent (thermotolerant Campylobacter bacteria) may be affected by changing rainfall and temperature patterns associated with climate change. Reporting rates for other potentially water-borne zoonoses are also noticeable (for example, the reported rate for cryptosporidiosis for 2011 was 14 per 100,000 population). The distribution of Cryptosporidium oocysts in the environment may be influenced by climate change because it has often been implicated in drinking-water contamination, and heavy rainfall events have been found to be associated with increased pathogen loads in rivers and disease incidence. Given this background, which may also be applicable to other countries with agriculturally-dominated landscapes, a New Zealand study was initiated to develop a decision-support system for the projected effects of climate change on a selected suite of environmentally-transmitted pathogens, including Campylobacter and Cryptosporodium oocysts. Herein we report on the manner in which a linear SIR (Susceptible-Ill-Recovered) model previously developed for campylobacteriosis can be extended to cryptosporidiosis, applied to changes in pathogen contact rate and hence reported illness, and coupled to climate change projections associated with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The resulting SIR model outputs provided projected

Are rates of pediatric bipolar disorder increasing?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

2014-01-01

Studies from the USA suggest that rates of pediatric bipolar disorder have increased since the mid-90s, but no study outside the USA has been published on the rates of pediatric bipolar disorder. Further, it is unclear whether an increase in rates reflects a true increase in the illness or more...... diagnostic attention. Using nationwide registers of all inpatients and outpatients contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark, we investigated (1) gender-specific rates of incident pediatric mania/bipolar disorder during a period from 1995 to 2012, (2) whether age and other characteristics...... for pediatric mania/bipolar disorder changed during the calendar period (1995 to 2003 versus 2004 to 2012), and (3) whether the diagnosis is more often made at first psychiatric contact in recent time compared to earlier according to gender. Totally, 346 patients got a main diagnosis of a manic episode (F30...

Duration of unemployment and suicide in Australia over the period 1985-2006: an ecological investigation by sex and age during rising versus declining national unemployment rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Milner, Allison; Page, Andrew; LaMontagne, Anthony D

2013-03-01

The relationship between unemployment and suicide may be sensitive to demographic factors, national unemployment rates, and length of time without employment. This study investigated these factors in relation to suicide in Australia for the period 1985-2006, in an ecological study. The outcome variable was annual suicide rate by age group, sex and the eight states and territories over 22 years of observation (total observations=1760). The main predictor variable was the average duration of unemployment in the population, categorised into three time periods (4 weeks). Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relationship between duration of unemployment and suicide over the years 1985-2006 in a series of cross-sectional analyses. Interaction analyses indicated significant differences during periods of declining or increasing labour market opportunity and by age group. During periods of declining unemployment rates in the country, longer durations of unemployment were associated with higher male suicide rates. During periods of increasing unemployment in the country, longer unemployment duration was associated with lower male suicide rates. Effect modification was also apparent by age-group, with stronger associations between unemployment duration and male suicide evident in those aged 25-34 and 55-64, and weaker associations in those aged 15-24 and 44-54 years. Longer length of unemployment was not associated with an increase in female suicide rates. The labour market opportunities in Australia modified the effect of duration of unemployment on suicide, and the effect was more prominent in men and older age groups. This may reflect social norms and acceptability about unemployment, as well as life-stage influences associated with transitions into and out of the labour market.

Changes in aerosol properties during spring-summer period in the Arctic troposphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.-C. Engvall

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The change in aerosol properties during the transition from the more polluted spring to the clean summer in the Arctic troposphere was studied. A six-year data set of observations from Ny-Ålesund on Svalbard, covering the months April through June, serve as the basis for the characterisation of this time period. In addition four-day-back trajectories were used to describe air mass histories. The observed transition in aerosol properties from an accumulation-mode dominated distribution to an Aitken-mode dominated distribution is discussed with respect to long-range transport and influences from natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols and pertinent trace gases. Our study shows that the air-mass transport is an important factor modulating the physical and chemical properties observed. However, the air-mass transport cannot alone explain the annually repeated systematic and rather rapid change in aerosol properties, occurring within a limited time window of approximately 10 days. With a simplified phenomenological model, which delivers the nucleation potential for new-particle formation, we suggest that the rapid shift in aerosol microphysical properties between the Arctic spring and summer is mainly driven by the incoming solar radiation in concert with transport of precursor gases and changes in condensational sink.

Changes in Optimism Are Associated with Changes in Health Over Time Among Older Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Chopik, William J.; Kim, Eric S.; Smith, Jacqui

2016-01-01

Little is known about how optimism differs by age and changes over time, particularly among older adults. Even less is known about how changes in optimism are related to changes in physical health. We examined age differences and longitudinal changes in optimism in 9,790 older adults over a four-year period. We found an inverted U-shaped pattern between optimism and age both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, such that optimism generally increased in older adults before decreasing. Increases in optimism over a four-year period were associated with improvements in self-rated health and fewer chronic illnesses over the same time frame. The findings from the current study are consistent with changes in emotion regulation strategies employed by older adults and age-related changes in well-being. PMID:27114753

Changes in Optimism Are Associated with Changes in Health Over Time Among Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chopik, William J; Kim, Eric S; Smith, Jacqui

2015-09-01

Little is known about how optimism differs by age and changes over time, particularly among older adults. Even less is known about how changes in optimism are related to changes in physical health. We examined age differences and longitudinal changes in optimism in 9,790 older adults over a four-year period. We found an inverted U-shaped pattern between optimism and age both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, such that optimism generally increased in older adults before decreasing. Increases in optimism over a four-year period were associated with improvements in self-rated health and fewer chronic illnesses over the same time frame. The findings from the current study are consistent with changes in emotion regulation strategies employed by older adults and age-related changes in well-being.

An analytical study on nested flow systems in a Tóthian basin with a periodically changing water table

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ke-Yu; Jiang, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Wan, Li; Wang, Jun-Zhi; Wang, Heng; Li, Hailong

2018-01-01

Classical understanding on basin-scale groundwater flow patterns is based on Tóth's findings of a single flow system in a unit basin (Tóth, 1962) and nested flow systems in a complex basin (Tóth, 1963), both of which were based on steady state models. Vandenberg (1980) extended Tóth (1962) by deriving a transient solution under a periodically changing water table in a unit basin and examined the flow field distortion under different dimensionless response time, τ∗. Following Vandenberg's (1980) approach, we extended Tóth (1963) by deriving the transient solution under a periodically changing water table in a complex basin and examined the transient behavior of nested flow systems. Due to the effect of specific storage, the flow field is asymmetric with respect to the midline, and the trajectory of internal stagnation points constitutes a non-enclosed loop, whose width decreases when τ∗ decreases. The distribution of the relative magnitude of hydraulic head fluctuation, Δh∗ , is dependent on the horizontal distance away from a divide and the depth below the land surface. In the shallow part, Δh∗ decreases from 1 at the divide to 0 at its neighboring valley under all τ∗, while in the deep part, Δh∗ reaches a threshold, whose value decreases when τ∗ increases. The zones with flowing wells are also found to change periodically. As water table falls, there is a general trend of shrinkage in the area of zones with flowing wells, which has a lag to the declining water table under a large τ∗. Although fluxes have not been assigned in our model, the recharge/discharge flux across the top boundary can be obtained. This study is critical to understand a series of periodically changing hydrogeological phenomena in large-scale basins.

Microprocessor controlled digital period meter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keefe, D.J.; McDowell, W.P.; Rusch, G.K.

1980-01-01

A microprocessor controlled digital period meter has been developed and tested operationally on a reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The principle of operation is the mathematical relationship between asymptotic periods and pulse counting circuitry. This relationship is used to calculate and display the reactor periods over a range of /plus or minus/1 second to /plus or minus/999 seconds. The time interval required to update each measurement automatically varies from 8 seconds at the lowest counting rates to 2 seconds at higher counting rates. The paper will describe hardware and software design details and show the advantages of this type of Period Meter over the conventional circuits. 1 ref

Measurement of the solar neutrino capture rate with gallium metal. III. Results for the 2002-2007 data-taking period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdurashitov, J. N.; Gavrin, V. N.; Gorbachev, V. V.; Gurkina, P. P.; Ibragimova, T. V.; Kalikhov, A. V.; Khairnasov, N. G.; Knodel, T. V.; Mirmov, I. N.; Shikhin, A. A.; Veretenkin, E. P.; Yants, V. E.; Zatsepin, G. T.; Bowles, T. J.; Elliott, S. R.; Teasdale, W. A.; Nico, J. S.; Cleveland, B. T.; Wilkerson, J. F.

2009-01-01

The Russian-American experiment SAGE began to measure the solar neutrino capture rate with a target of gallium metal in December 1989. Measurements have continued with only a few brief interruptions since that time. In this article we present the experimental improvements in SAGE since its last published data summary in December 2001. Assuming the solar neutrino production rate was constant during the period of data collection, combined analysis of 168 extractions through December 2007 gives a capture rate of solar neutrinos with energy more than 233 keV of 65.4 -3.0 +3.1 (stat) -2.8 +2.6 (syst) SNU. The weighted average of the results of all three Ga solar neutrino experiments, SAGE, Gallex, and GNO, is now 66.1±3.1 SNU, where statistical and systematic uncertainties have been combined in quadrature. During the recent period of data collection a new test of SAGE was made with a reactor-produced 37 Ar neutrino source. The ratio of observed to calculated rates in this experiment, combined with the measured rates in the three prior 51 Cr neutrino-source experiments with Ga, is 0.87±0.05. A probable explanation for this low result is that the cross section for neutrino capture by the two lowest-lying excited states in 71 Ge has been overestimated. If we assume these cross sections are zero, then the standard solar model including neutrino oscillations predicts a total capture rate in Ga in the range of 63 SNU to 66 SNU with an uncertainty of about 4%, in good agreement with experiment. We derive the current value of the neutrino flux produced in the Sun by the proton-proton fusion reaction to be φ pp · =(6.0±0.8)x10 10 /(cm 2 s), which agrees well with the pp flux predicted by the standard solar model. Finally, we make several tests and show that the data are consistent with the assumption that the solar neutrino production rate is constant in time.

Aging and physiological changes of the kidneys including changes in glomerular filtration rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Musso, Carlos G; Oreopoulos, Dimitrios G

2011-01-01

In addition to the structural changes in the kidney associated with aging, physiological changes in renal function are also found in older adults, such as decreased glomerular filtration rate, vascular dysautonomia, altered tubular handling of creatinine, reduction in sodium reabsorption and potassium secretion, and diminished renal reserve. These alterations make aged individuals susceptible to the development of clinical conditions in response to usual stimuli that would otherwise be compensated for in younger individuals, including acute kidney injury, volume depletion and overload, disorders of serum sodium and potassium concentration, and toxic reactions to water-soluble drugs excreted by the kidneys. Additionally, the preservation with aging of a normal urinalysis, normal serum urea and creatinine values, erythropoietin synthesis, and normal phosphorus, calcium and magnesium tubular handling distinguishes decreased GFR due to normal aging from that due to chronic kidney disease. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Evaluation of the influence of change in heart rate on left ventricular diastolic function indices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, Motomasa; Yamagishi, Hiroaki; Seino, Yasuyuki; Odano, Ikuo; Sakai, Kunio; Yamamoto, Tomohiko; Tsuda, Takashi

1988-01-01

In order to assess the influence of change in heart rate on left ventricular diastolic function indices, ECG gated cardiac pool study was performed in 6 patients with implanted programmable AAI pacemakers. Heart rate was changed by atrial pacing from 50 to 120 beats/min, every 10 beats/min. The filling fraction during first third of diastole (1/3FF), the peak filling rate (PFR), mean first third filling rate (1/3FR-mean) and early filling volume ratio (%EFV), being used as the indices of left ventricular diastolic performance, were assessed. In accordance with increase in heart rate, 1/3FF decreased significantly. PFR were fairly stable from 50 to 80 beats/min, but increased significantly from 90 to 120 beats/min. 1/3FR-mean and %EFV did not change significantly, but 1/3FR-mean showed decreasing tendency and %EFV showed increasing tendency as the heart rate was increased. %EFV was more changeable index than other indices among clinical cases. These results indicate that PFR and 1/3FR-mean were appropriate diastolic phase indices at rest. (author)

Influence of storage period on properties of biopolymer packaging materials and pouches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bulut Sandra N.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Bilayer biodegradable films based on pumpkin oil cake (PuOC and zein, as well as pouches made from these materials, were prepared, and the changes of their mechanical, physicochemical and barrier properties were analyzed during four weeks of storage. Heat seal quality of formed pouches and composition of the gas atmosphere in the pouches were also monitored. The results showed that the bilayer film had a thickness of 300 ± 10 (μm, and no its changes were observed during the storage time. The tensile strength of the tested film increased slightly in the third week, but the elongation at break showed a decreasing trend during the whole storage period. The decreases in the moisture content, total soluble matter and swelling of the obtained film, were also observed. After one month of storage, the O2 transmission rate of tested films, increased from 27 to 64 (ml/m2 24h 1 bar, and the CO2 gas transmission rate from 147 to 188 (ml/m2 24h 1 bar. The heat seal strength of the PuOC/Zein pouches decreased during the whole storage period. The percentage of O2 in PuOC/Zein pouches increased up to 7 times during the storage period; however, the percentage of CO2 decreased up to 18 times already after one week, and then remained stable in the rest of the storage period. These results are, to a smaller extent, due to the gas transmission rate through the material, especially for CO2 , and to a greater extent, due to the low heat seal strength, which decreased through the storage period, and probably influenced the content of the gases in the pouches.[Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 46010

Sex-specific mouse liver gene expression: genome-wide analysis of developmental changes from pre-pubertal period to young adulthood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Conforto Tara L

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Early liver development and the transcriptional transitions during hepatogenesis are well characterized. However, gene expression changes during the late postnatal/pre-pubertal to young adulthood period are less well understood, especially with regards to sex-specific gene expression. Methods Microarray analysis of male and female mouse liver was carried out at 3, 4, and 8 wk of age to elucidate developmental changes in gene expression from the late postnatal/pre-pubertal period to young adulthood. Results A large number of sex-biased and sex-independent genes showed significant changes during this developmental period. Notably, sex-independent genes involved in cell cycle, chromosome condensation, and DNA replication were down regulated from 3 wk to 8 wk, while genes associated with metal ion binding, ion transport and kinase activity were up regulated. A majority of genes showing sex differential expression in adult liver did not display sex differences prior to puberty, at which time extensive changes in sex-specific gene expression were seen, primarily in males. Thus, in male liver, 76% of male-specific genes were up regulated and 47% of female-specific genes were down regulated from 3 to 8 wk of age, whereas in female liver 67% of sex-specific genes showed no significant change in expression. In both sexes, genes up regulated from 3 to 8 wk were significantly enriched (p p Ihh; female-specific Cdx4, Cux2, Tox, and Trim24 and may contribute to the developmental changes that lead to global acquisition of liver sex-specificity by 8 wk of age. Conclusions Overall, the observed changes in gene expression during postnatal liver development reflect the deceleration of liver growth and the induction of specialized liver functions, with widespread changes in sex-specific gene expression primarily occurring in male liver.

Robotic crabs reveal that female fiddler crabs are sensitive to changes in male display rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Mowles, Sophie L; Jennions, Michael D; Backwell, Patricia R Y

2018-01-01

Males often produce dynamic, repetitive courtship displays that can be demanding to perform and might advertise male quality to females. A key feature of demanding displays is that they can change in intensity: escalating as a male increases his signalling effort, but de-escalating as a signaller becomes fatigued. Here, we investigated whether female fiddler crabs, Uca mjoebergi , are sensitive to changes in male courtship wave rate. We performed playback experiments using robotic male crabs that had the same mean wave rate, but either escalated, de-escalated or remained constant. Females demonstrated a strong preference for escalating robots, but showed mixed responses to robots that de-escalated ('fast' to 'slow') compared to those that waved at a constant 'medium' rate. These findings demonstrate that females can discern changes in male display rate, and prefer males that escalate, but that females are also sensitive to past display rates indicative of prior vigour. © 2018 The Authors.

Flexibility in metabolic rate confers a growth advantage under changing food availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Auer, Sonya K; Salin, Karine; Rudolf, Agata M; Anderson, Graeme J; Metcalfe, Neil B

2015-09-01

1. Phenotypic flexibility in physiological, morphological and behavioural traits can allow organisms to cope with environmental challenges. Given recent climate change and the degree of habitat modification currently experienced by many organisms, it is therefore critical to quantify the degree of phenotypic variation present within populations, individual capacities to change and what their consequences are for fitness. 2. Flexibility in standard metabolic rate (SMR) may be particularly important since SMR reflects the minimal energetic cost of living and is one of the primary traits underlying organismal performance. SMR can increase or decrease in response to food availability, but the consequences of these changes for growth rates and other fitness components are not well known. 3. We examined individual variation in metabolic flexibility in response to changing food levels and its consequences for somatic growth in juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta). 4. SMR increased when individuals were switched to a high food ration and decreased when they were switched to a low food regime. These shifts in SMR, in turn, were linked with individual differences in somatic growth; those individuals that increased their SMR more in response to elevated food levels grew fastest, while growth at the low food level was fastest in those individuals that depressed their SMR most. 5. Flexibility in energy metabolism is therefore a key mechanism to maximize growth rates under the challenges imposed by variability in food availability and is likely to be an important determinant of species' resilience in the face of global change. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

78 FR 1277 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non-Published Rates

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-08

... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products List. DATES: Effective date: January 8... add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published Rates 4 (GEPS-NPR 4) to the Competitive Products...

The Response of Deferred Executive Compensation to Changes in Tax Rates

OpenAIRE

Aspen Gorry; Kevin A. Hassett; R. Glenn Hubbard; Aparna Mathur

2015-01-01

Given the increasing use of stock options in executive compensation, we examine how taxes influence the choice of compensation and document that income deferral is an important margin of adjustment in response to tax rate changes. To account for this option in the empirical analysis, we explore deferral by estimating how executives’ choice of compensation between current and deferred income depends on changes in tax policy. Our empirical results suggest a significant impact of taxes on the co...

Life Change Units (LCU Rating as Stressors in Iranian Hospitals’ Nurses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossein Dargahi

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Healthcare workers suffer from work-related or occupational stress. This can lead to severe distress, burnout or physical illness, and finally to decrease quality of work life and services provision. Nurses must be aware of retential stressors, because they add to the cumulative effect of other stressful events. Holmes and Rahe both found a relationship between life change unit as stressors and health changes. This research reported here aims to measure the life change units as stressors among Iranian Hospitals Nurses by LCU rating. A cross - sectional, descriptive and analytical study was conducted among 389 nurses working in 15 teaching hospitals in Tehran, Iran. The respondents were asked to select each of 54 events that cause stress ranked in order of their life change units developed by Holmes and Rahe as stress scale. Before beginning the main study, the reliability and coincidental validity was performed. All data were analyzed using SPSS for windows version 18, t-test, Anova statistical methods. Approximately, half of the nurses associated major mortgage, foreclosure of mortgage or loan. More than 50% of the Iranian nurses had 150-300 and more than 300 LCU rating which had the chance to expose to extremely serious risk to health.Iranian hospitals nurses suffer from stress that caused by Life Change Units organizational factors such as change in the financial state, change in the work environment and major mortgage. We recommend to Iranian nursing policy-makers to choose strategies to help nurses cope effectively with workplace stressors. Nursing managers and / or nursing management should develop strategies to address and improve the quality of working conditions for nurses in the hospitals. Providing educational and career prospects can contribute to decrease nurses occupational stress level, the maintaining their work ability.

Probability of detection of clinical seizures using heart rate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Osorio, Ivan; Manly, B F J

2015-08-01

Heart rate-based seizure detection is a viable complement or alternative to ECoG/EEG. This study investigates the role of various biological factors on the probability of clinical seizure detection using heart rate. Regression models were applied to 266 clinical seizures recorded from 72 subjects to investigate if factors such as age, gender, years with epilepsy, etiology, seizure site origin, seizure class, and data collection centers, among others, shape the probability of EKG-based seizure detection. Clinical seizure detection probability based on heart rate changes, is significantly (pprobability of detecting clinical seizures (>0.8 in the majority of subjects) using heart rate is highest for complex partial seizures, increases with a patient's years with epilepsy, is lower for females than for males and is unrelated to the side of hemisphere origin. Clinical seizure detection probability using heart rate is multi-factorially dependent and sufficiently high (>0.8) in most cases to be clinically useful. Knowledge of the role that these factors play in shaping said probability will enhance its applicability and usefulness. Heart rate is a reliable and practical signal for extra-cerebral detection of clinical seizures originating from or spreading to central autonomic network structures. Copyright © 2015 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

2011-03-01

To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Study of influence of exchange rate change on the supply and demand of energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sohn, Y.H.; Shin, D.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1997-08-01

The change of relative prices of trading goods and non-trading goods due to appreciation or depreciation of real exchange rates influences industrial structure and trading infrastructure by changing output, consumption, import and export, and prices of domestic economy. Considering that energy is used as intermediate input of all industrial sectors as well as in final consumption in the Korean economy which lacks energy resources and relies on imported energy resources, I believe that assessing the concrete effects of the real exchange rate change onto the energy industry must be a very important item in establishing effective energy policy. In this thesis, I measure the elasticity of the exchange rate as endogenous factors related to the energy industry using a CGE model that breaks down the energy industry. One (1) % depreciation of real exchange rate increases the domestic sales prices of all energy industry sectors, and the price increase ratios of petroleum and coal products are calculated as the highest among these. Petroleum and coal products show the highest price increase ratios while both the output and export decrease. On the other hand, depreciation increases the domestic sales prices of power generation, city gas, and heating sectors, but it is found to increase the output apart from petroleum and coal products. Depreciation of the real exchange rate is found to change the composition of the energy industry from petroleum and coal products to power generation, city gas, and heating sectors. 11 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE INFLATION: EMPIRICAL SURVEY FOR ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

Catalina Adriana Handoreanu

2008-01-01

The influence on price level of changes in exchange rate comeback in the last period in the attention of economists and policy makers. The price level movement due to the changes in the exchange rate is named exchange rate pass-through and is important for the monetary policy and for the exchange rate choice. A reduced passthrough makes the monetary policy more independent and more easily implementation of inflation targeting. This working paper analyzed this phenomenon through a recursive eq...

Effect of change in coding rules on recording diabetes in hospital administrative datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Assareh, Hassan; Achat, Helen M; Guevarra, Veth M; Stubbs, Joanne M

2016-10-01

During 2008-2011 Australian Coding Standards mandated a causal relationship between diabetes and inpatient care as a criterion for recording diabetes as a comorbidity in hospital administrative datasets. We aim to measure the effect of the causality mandate on recorded diabetes and associated inter-hospital variations. For patients with diabetes, all admissions between 2004 and 2013 to all New South Wales acute public hospitals were investigated. Poisson mixed models were employed to derive adjusted rates and variations. The non-recorded diabetes incidence rate was 20.7%. The causality mandate increased the incidence rate four fold during the change period, 2008-2011, compared to the pre- or post-change periods (32.5% vs 8.4% and 6.9%). The inter-hospital variation was also higher, with twice the difference in the non-recorded rate between hospitals with the highest and lowest rates (50% vs 24% and 27% risk gap). The variation decreased during the change period (29%), while the rate continued to rise (53%). Admission characteristics accounted for over 44% of the variation compared with at most two per cent attributable to patient or hospital characteristics. Contributing characteristics explained less of the variation within the change period compared to pre- or post-change (46% vs 58% and 53%). Hospital relative performance was not constant over time. The causality mandate substantially increased the non-recorded diabetes rate and associated inter-hospital variation. Longitudinal accumulation of clinical information at the patient level, and the development of appropriate adoption protocols to achieve comprehensive and timely implementation of coding changes are essential to supporting the integrity of hospital administrative datasets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rate Constant Change of Photo Reaction of Bacteriorhodopsin Observed in Trimeric Molecular System.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsujiuchi, Yutaka; Masumoto, Hiroshi; Goto, Takashi

2016-04-01

To elucidate the time evolution of photo reaction of bacteriorhodopsin in glycerol mixed purple membrane at around 196 K under irradiation by red light, a kinetic model was constructed. The change of absorption with irradiation at times of 560 nm and 412 nm was analyzed for the purpose of determining reaction rates of photo reaction of bacteriorhodopsin and its product M intermediate. In this study it is shown that reaction rates of conversion from bacteriorhodopsin to the M intermediate can be explained by a set of linear differential equations. This model analysis concludes that bacteriorhodopsin in which constitutes a trimer unit with other two bacteriorhodopsin molecules changes into M intermediates in the 1.73 of reaction rate, in the initial step, and according to the number of M intermediate in a trimer unit, from three to one, the reaction rate of bacteriorhodopsin into M intermediates smaller as 1.73, 0.80, 0.19 which caused by influence of inter-molecular interaction between bacteriorhodopsin.

Changes of loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) dive behavior associated with tropical storm passage during the inter-nesting period.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Maria; Tucker, Anton D; Beedholm, Kristian; Mann, David A

2017-10-01

To improve conservation strategies for threatened sea turtles, more knowledge on their ecology, behavior, and how they cope with severe and changing weather conditions is needed. Satellite and animal motion datalogging tags were used to study the inter-nesting behavior of two female loggerhead turtles in the Gulf of Mexico, which regularly has hurricanes and tropical storms during nesting season. We contrast the behavioral patterns and swimming energetics of these two turtles, the first tracked in calm weather and the second tracked before, during and after a tropical storm. Turtle 1 was highly active and swam at the surface or submerged 95% of the time during the entire inter-nesting period, with a high estimated specific oxygen consumption rate (0.95 ml min -1  kg -0.83 ). Turtle 2 was inactive for most of the first 9 days of the inter-nesting period, during which she rested at the bottom (80% of the time) with low estimated oxygen consumption (0.62 ml min -1  kg -0.83 ). Midway through the inter-nesting period, turtle 2 encountered a tropical storm and became highly active (swimming 88% of the time during and 95% after the storm). Her oxygen consumption increased significantly to 0.97 ml min -1  kg -0.83 during and 0.98 ml min -1  kg -0.83 after the storm. However, despite the tropical storm, turtle 2 returned to the nesting beach, where she successfully re-nested 75 m from her previous nest. Thus, the tropical storm had a minor effect on this female's individual nesting success, even though the storm caused 90% loss nests at Casey Key. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Characterization of vegetative and grain filling periods of winter wheat by stepwise regression procedure. II. Grain filling period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pržulj Novo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In wheat, rate and duration of dry matter accumulation and remobilization depend on genotype and growing conditions. The objective of this study was to determine the most appropriate polynomial regression of stepwise regression procedure for describing grain filling period in three winter wheat cultivars. The stepwise regression procedure showed that grain filling is a complex biological process and that it is difficult to offer a simple and appropriate polynomial equation that fits the pattern of changes in dry matter accumulation during the grain filling period, i.e., from anthesis to maximum grain weight, in winter wheat. If grain filling is to be represented with a high power polynomial, quartic and quintic equations showed to be most appropriate. In spite of certain disadvantages, a cubic equation of stepwise regression could be used for describing the pattern of winter wheat grain filling.

Changing maternity leave policy: short-term effects on fertility rates and demographic variables in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Thyrian, Jochen René; Fendrich, Konstanze; Lange, Anja; Haas, Johannes-Peter; Zygmunt, Marek; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2010-08-01

Changes in reproductive behaviour and decreasing fertility rates have recently led to policy actions that attempt to counteract these developments. Evidence on the efficacy of such policy interventions, however, is limited. The present analysis examines fertility rates and demographic variables of a population in Germany in response to new maternity leave regulations, which were introduced in January 2007. As part of a population-based survey of neonates in Pomerania (SNiP), all births in the study region from the period 23 months prior to January 1st, 2007 until 23 months afterwards were examined. Crude Birth Rates (CBR) per month, General Fertility Rates (GFR) per month, parity and sociodemographic variables were compared using bivariate techniques. Logistic regression analysis was performed. No statistically significant difference in the CBR or GFR after Jan. 1st, 2007 was found. There were statistically significant differences in other demographic variables, however. The proportion of mothers who (a) were employed full-time before pregnancy; (b) came from a higher socioeconomic status; and (c) had higher income levels all increased after January 1st, 2007. The magnitude of these effects was higher in multigravid women. Forward stepwise logistic regression found an odds ratio of 1.79 for women with a family income of more than 3000 euro to give birth after the new law was introduced. This is the first analysis of population-based data that examines fertility rates and sociodemographic variables in response to new legal regulations. No short-term effects on birth rates were detected, but there was a differential effect on the subgroup of multigravidae. The focus of this policy was to provide financial support, which is certainly important, but the complexity of having a child suggests that attitudinal and motivational aspects also need to be taken into account. Furthermore, these analyses were only able to evaluate the short-term consequences of the policy

Periodicity in changes of Jupiter's hemispheres activity factor is continues to recover in 2018

Science.gov (United States)

Vidmachenko, A. P.

2018-05-01

From the mid-1990s to 2013 that there was a maximum mismatch between the time of Jupiter's passage at orbit at perihelion and aphelion, and the moments of minima and maxima of Solar activity. In 1963-1995 the correlation between the changes in factor AJ, Solar activity and the moments of passage of perihelion and aphelion of the orbit - was high, and the nature of the changes was synchronized. After 1995, inconsistency in the supply of Solar energy to northern and southern hemispheres of Jupiter and its movement in orbit - has become significant. But after 2014, the periodicity in the change of photometric characteristics of the northern and southern hemispheres of Jupiter, again becomes coordinated. And the data for 2017 and 2018 confirm the improvement of the matching of the course of the Aj(T) dependence, SA index and the regime irradiation by the Sun of Jupiter at it moves along the orbit.

76 FR 65639 - International Mail: Proposed Product Rate and Fee Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-24

... Customs Clearance and Delivery Fee International Reply Coupons International Business Reply Service The... * * * * * International Business Reply Service (382) [For each country that offers International Business Reply Service... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Mail: Proposed Product Rate and Fee Changes AGENCY...

Relationship between climate change and wars between nomadic and farming groups from the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty period

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Y.; Liu, L.; Fang, X. Q.; Ma, Y. N.

2015-07-01

In ancient China, the change in regional agriculture and animal husbandry productivity caused by climate change led to either wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. From the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty there were 367 wars between the two groups. The nomadic people initiated 69 % of the wars, but 62.4 % were won by the farmers. On a 30 year-period timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars. The conflicts between the nomadic and farming groups took place in some areas which are sensitive to climate change. During the cold periods, the battlefields were mostly in the southern regions. The main causes which leading to the above results are following: (1) warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, especially contributed to improve the productivity of nomadic group; meanwhile, the excessive desire for essential means of subsistence in nomadic group could led to wars. (2) During the cold periods, people of farming group moved to the south and construct the south, meanwhile, nomadic group occupied the central plains, thus the battlefields also changed. As the background, climate change plays an indirect role in wars between groups.

The widening gender gap in marijuana use prevalence in the U.S. during a period of economic change, 2002-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Carliner, Hannah; Mauro, Pia M; Brown, Qiana L; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Rahim-Juwel, Reanne; Sarvet, Aaron L; Wall, Melanie M; Martins, Silvia S; Carliner, Geoffrey; Hasin, Deborah S

2017-01-01

Concurrently with increasingly permissive attitudes towards marijuana use and its legalization, the prevalence of marijuana use has increased in recent years in the U.S. Substance use is generally more prevalent in men than women, although for alcohol, the gender gap is narrowing. However, information is lacking on whether time trends in marijuana use differ by gender, or whether socioeconomic status in the context of the Great Recession may affect these changes. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2002-2014), we examined changes over time in prevalence of past-year marijuana use by gender, and whether gender differences varied across income levels. After empirically determining a change point in use in 2007, we used logistic regression to test interaction terms including time, gender, and income level. Prevalence of marijuana use increased for both men (+4.0%) and women (+2.7%) from 2002 to 2014, with all of the increase occurring from 2007 to 2014. Increases were greater for men, leading to a widening of the gender gap over time (pemployment rate beginning in 2007, low-income men showed the greatest increases in marijuana use during this period, leading to a widening of the gender gap in prevalence of marijuana use over time. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Changes in body size and physical characteristics of South African under-20 rugby union players over a 13-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombard, Wayne P; Durandt, Justin J; Masimla, Herman; Green, Mervin; Lambert, Michael I

2015-04-01

This study compared changes in the body size and physical characteristics of South African under-20 rugby union players over a 13-year period. A total of 453 South African under-20 players (forwards: n = 256 and backs: n = 197) underwent measurements of body mass, stature, muscular strength, endurance, and 10- and 40-m sprint times. A 2-way analysis of variance was used to determine significant differences for the main effects of position (forwards vs. backs) and time (1998-2010). The pooled data showed that forwards were significantly heavier (22%), taller (5%), and stronger (18%) than the backs. However, when 1 repetition maximum strength scores were adjusted for body mass, backs were stronger per kg body mass. Stature did not change over the 13-year period for both groups. There were, however, significant increases in muscular strength (50%), body mass (20%), and muscular endurance (50%). Furthermore, an improvement in sprint times over 40 (4%) and 10 m (7%) was evident over the period of the study. In conclusion, the players became heavier, stronger, taller, and improved their upper-body muscular endurance over the 13 years of the study. Furthermore, sprint times over 10 and 40 m improved over the same time period despite the increase in body mass. It can be speculated that the changes in physical characteristics of the players over time are possibly a consequence of (a) adaptations to the changing demands of the game and (b) advancements in training methods.

Influence of periodic heartbeat reversal and abdominal movements on hemocoelic and tracheal pressure in resting blowflies Calliphora vicina.

Science.gov (United States)

Wasserthal, Lutz Thilo

2012-01-15

In Calliphoridae and Drosophilidae, the dorsal vessel (heart and aorta with associated venous channels) is the only connection between the thorax and the abdomen. Hemolymph oscillates between the compartments by periodic heartbeat reversal, but both the mechanism and its influence on hemocoelic and tracheal pressure have remained unclear. The pumping direction of the heart regularly reverses, with a higher pulse rate during backward compared with forward pumping. A sequence of forward and backward pulse periods lasts approximately 34 s. Pulse rate, direction, velocity and the duration of heartbeat periods were determined by thermistor and electrophysiological measurements. For the first time, heartbeat-induced pressure changes were measured in the hemocoel and in the tracheal system of the thorax and the abdomen. The tracheal pressure changed from sub-atmospheric during backward heartbeat to supra-atmospheric during forward heartbeat in the thorax and inversely in the abdomen. The heartbeat reversals were coordinated with slow abdominal movements with a pumping stroke at the beginning of the forward pulse period. The pressure effect of the pumping stroke was visible only in the abdomen. Periodic hemolymph shift and abdominal movements resulted in pressure changes in the hemocoel and tracheal system alternating in the thorax and abdomen, suggesting an effect on respiratory gas exchange.

Testing periodically integrated autoregressive models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

1997-01-01

textabstractPeriodically integrated time series require a periodic differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. A non-periodic integrated time series needs the first-difference filter for similar reasons. When the changing seasonal fluctuations for the non-periodic integrated series can be

Changes of radiological situation of Polish environment in 10 years period after Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jagielak, J.; Biernacka, M.; Grabowski, D.; Henschke, J.

1996-01-01

The content of natural and artificial radioisotopes in environment in Poland before and after Chernobyl accident was analyzed. The methods used in radiation monitoring in Poland and results of these measurements in the period 1986-1996 were presented. Since the Chernobyl accident changes of contamination of soils, southern Baltic sea water, other surface waters, deposits in Baltic sea, rivers and lakes in Poland were observed. Also concentration of radioisotopes in foodstuffs: mushrooms, fruits, meat, milk, eggs was described

Changes in transcriptional orientation are associated with increases in evolutionary rates of enterobacterial genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsiung Chao

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Changes in transcriptional orientation (“CTOs” occur frequently in prokaryotic genomes. Such changes usually result from genomic inversions, which may cause a conflict between the directions of replication and transcription and an increase in mutation rate. However, CTOs do not always lead to the replication-transcription confrontation. Furthermore, CTOs may cause deleterious disruptions of operon structure and/or gene regulations. The currently existing CTOs may indicate relaxation of selection pressure. Therefore, it is of interest to investigate whether CTOs have an independent effect on the evolutionary rates of the affected genes, and whether these genes are subject to any type of selection pressure in prokaryotes. Methods Three closely related enterbacteria, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, were selected for comparisons of synonymous (dS and nonsynonymous (dN substitution rate between the genes that have experienced changes in transcriptional orientation (changed-orientation genes, “COGs” and those that do not (same-orientation genes, “SOGs”. The dN/dS ratio was also derived to evaluate the selection pressure on the analyzed genes. Confounding factors in the estimation of evolutionary rates, such as gene essentiality, gene expression level, replication-transcription confrontation, and decreased dS at gene terminals were controlled in the COG-SOG comparisons. Results We demonstrate that COGs have significantly higher dN and dS than SOGs when a series of confounding factors are controlled. However, the dN/dS ratios are similar between the two gene groups, suggesting that the increase in dS can sufficiently explain the increase in dN in COGs. Therefore, the increases in evolutionary rates in COGs may be mainly mutation-driven. Conclusions Here we show that CTOs can increase the evolutionary rates of the affected genes. This effect is independent of the

Growth rate of ovulatory follicles during the first ovulatory oestrus (after seasonal anoestrus) and subsequent oestrous period in Irish Draught mares.

Science.gov (United States)

Newcombe, John R; Cuervo-Arango, Juan

2013-03-12

It is believed that during the spring transition, the developing follicle tends to grow more slowly, persist longer and grow to a larger diameter prior to ovulation than at subsequent oestrus periods. A general suspicion, that the first ovulation of the year is less fertile than subsequent ovulations could be explained by a slower growth rate of the ovulatory follicle during transition with the consequent production of a subfertile oocyte. By detailed serial examination of the same group of Irish Draught mares over three winter/spring periods, no significant difference was found in either growth rate or pre-ovulatory diameter when compared with subsequent ovulations. Mean growth rates over the ten days prior to ovulation were 2.20 mm/day (range 1.18 to 3.64) and 2.19 mm/day (range 1.25 to 3.41) for first and subsequent ovulations respectively. Mean maximum pre-ovulatory diameters were 44.7 mm (range 35 to 59) and 43.5 mm (range 31 to 57.5) for first and subsequent ovulations respectively. The impression gained by practitioners that the first follicle develops more slowly during the transition to the first ovulation of the season may be due to less frequent examinations and consequently a failure to observe and record that follicles may grow and then regress during this period. The largest follicle observed a few days previously is not necessarily the same large follicle found at a later examination.

Fast reactor core design studies to cope with TRU fuel composition changes in the LWR-to-FBR transition period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawashima, Katsuyuki; Maruyama, Shuhei; Ohki, Shigeo; Mizuno, Tomoyasu

2009-01-01

As part of the Fast Reactor Cycle Technology Development Project (FaCT Project), sodium-cooled fast reactor core design efforts have been made to cope with the TRU fuel composition changes expected during LWR-to-FBR transition period, in which a various kind of TRU fuel compositions are available depending on the characteristics of the LWR spent fuels and a way of recycling them. A 750 MWe mixed-oxide fuel core is firstly defined as a FaCT medium-size reference core and its neutronics characteristics are determined. The core is a high internal conversion type and has an average burnup of 150 GWD/T. The reference TRU fuel composition is assumed to come from the FBR equilibrium state. Compared to the LWR-to-FBR transition period, the TRU fuels in the FBR equilibrium period are multi-recycled through fast reactors and have a different composition. An available TRU fuel composition is determined by fast reactor spent fuel multi-recycling scenarios. Then the FaCT core corresponding to the TRU fuel with different compositions is set according to the TRU fuel composition changes in LWR-to-FBR transition period, and the key core neutronics characteristics are assessed. It is shown that among the core neutronics characteristics, the burnup reactivity and the safety parameters such as sodium void reactivity and Doppler coefficient are significantly influenced by the TRU fuel composition changes. As a result, a general characteristic in the FaCT core design to cope with TRU fuel composition changes is grasped and the design envelopes are identified in terms of the burnup reactivity and the safety parameters. (author)

Structural growth trajectories and rates of change in the first 3 months of infant brain development.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Dominic; Chang, Linda; Ernst, Thomas M; Curran, Megan; Buchthal, Steven D; Alicata, Daniel; Skranes, Jon; Johansen, Heather; Hernandez, Antonette; Yamakawa, Robyn; Kuperman, Joshua M; Dale, Anders M

2014-10-01

The very early postnatal period witnesses extraordinary rates of growth, but structural brain development in this period has largely not been explored longitudinally. Such assessment may be key in detecting and treating the earliest signs of neurodevelopmental disorders. To assess structural growth trajectories and rates of change in the whole brain and regions of interest in infants during the first 3 months after birth. Serial structural T1-weighted and/or T2-weighted magnetic resonance images were obtained for 211 time points from 87 healthy term-born or term-equivalent preterm-born infants, aged 2 to 90 days, between October 5, 2007, and June 12, 2013. We segmented whole-brain and multiple subcortical regions of interest using a novel application of Bayesian-based methods. We modeled growth and rate of growth trajectories nonparametrically and assessed left-right asymmetries and sexual dimorphisms. Whole-brain volume at birth was approximately one-third of healthy elderly brain volume, and did not differ significantly between male and female infants (347 388 mm3 and 335 509 mm3, respectively, P = .12). The growth rate was approximately 1%/d, slowing to 0.4%/d by the end of the first 3 months, when the brain reached just more than half of elderly adult brain volume. Overall growth in the first 90 days was 64%. There was a significant age-by-sex effect leading to widening separation in brain sizes with age between male and female infants (with male infants growing faster than females by 200.4 mm3/d, SE = 67.2, P = .003). Longer gestation was associated with larger brain size (2215 mm3/d, SE = 284, P = 4×10-13). The expected brain size of an infant born one week earlier than average was 5% smaller than average; at 90 days it will not have caught up, being 2% smaller than average. The cerebellum grew at the highest rate, more than doubling in 90 days, and the hippocampus grew at the slowest rate, increasing by 47% in 90 days. There was left

Tax Planning by Mutual Funds: Evidence From Changes in the Capital Gains Tax Rate

OpenAIRE

Chen, Feng; Kraft, Arthur; Weiss, Ira

2011-01-01

We investigate whether mutual funds engage in tax planning by testing how they respond to changes in the capital gains tax rates. While previous evidence suggests that individual investors time capital gains realizations, mutual fund managers may not tax plan like individuals because fund managers have incentives to consider the tax liability of both current and potential investors. Our analysis spans over 44 years and six major tax changes, allowing us to examine the effects of both tax rate...

Measuring building change : a method to capture building knowledge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Choukry, M.

1993-01-01

Buildings are subject to change of requirements during their periods of use. In the last decades it has been mostly assumed that the rate of change is increasing. Exact description of the type of change or the amount of change is not always investigated. Requirements change knowledge in currently

Two-rate periodic protocol with dynamics driven through many cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Kar, Satyaki

2017-02-01

We study the long time dynamics in closed quantum systems periodically driven via time dependent parameters with two frequencies ω1 and ω2=r ω1 . Tuning of the ratio r there can unleash plenty of dynamical phenomena to occur. Our study includes integrable models like Ising and X Y models in d =1 and the Kitaev model in d =1 and 2 and can also be extended to Dirac fermions in graphene. We witness the wave-function overlap or dynamic freezing that occurs within some small/ intermediate frequency regimes in the (ω1,r ) plane (with r ≠0 ) when the ground state is evolved through a single cycle of driving. However, evolved states soon become steady with long driving, and the freezing scenario gets rarer. We extend the formalism of adiabatic-impulse approximation for many cycle driving within our two-rate protocol and show the near-exact comparisons at small frequencies. An extension of the rotating wave approximation is also developed to gather an analytical framework of the dynamics at high frequencies. Finally we compute the entanglement entropy in the stroboscopically evolved states within the gapped phases of the system and observe how it gets tuned with the ratio r in our protocol. The minimally entangled states are found to fall within the regime of dynamical freezing. In general, the results indicate that the entanglement entropy in our driven short-ranged integrable systems follow a genuine nonarea law of scaling and show a convergence (with a r dependent pace) towards volume scaling behavior as the driving is continued for a long time.

Relating smoking, obesity, insulin resistance and ovarian biomarker changes to the final menstrual period (FMP)

OpenAIRE

Sowers, MaryFran R.; McConnell, Daniel; Yosef, Matheos; Jannausch, Mary L.; Harlow, Sioban D.; Randolph, John F.

2010-01-01

In order to determine if smoking, obesity, and insulin resistance mediated age at final menstrual period (FMP), we examined anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), inhibin B, and follicle-stimulating hormone as biomarkers of changing follicle status and ovarian aging. We performed a longitudinal data analysis from a cohort of premenopausal women followed to their FMP. Our results found that smokers had an earlier age at FMP (p

CHANGES IN PRIOR PERIOD ERRORS

OpenAIRE

Alina Pietraru; Dorina Luţă

2007-01-01

In 2007, in Romania is continued the gradual implementation of the International Financial Reporting Standards which includes: the IFRS, the IAS and their Interpretation as approved by European Union, translated and published in Romanian. The financial statement must achieve one major purpose that is to provide information about the financial position, financial performance and changes in financial position of that entity. In this context, the accounting policy elaborated and assumed by the m...

Nutritional regimens with periodically recurring phases of dietary restriction extend lifespan in Drosophila.

Science.gov (United States)

Romey-Glüsing, Renja; Li, Yang; Hoffmann, Julia; von Frieling, Jakob; Knop, Mirjam; Pfefferkorn, Roxana; Bruchhaus, Iris; Fink, Christine; Roeder, Thomas

2018-04-01

Nutritional interventions such as caloric and dietary restriction increase lifespan in various animal models. To identify alternative and less demanding nutritional interventions that extend lifespan, we subjected fruit flies ( Drosophila melanogaster) to weekly nutritional regimens that involved alternating a conventional diet with dietary restriction. Short periods of dietary restriction (up to 2 d) followed by longer periods of a conventional diet yielded minimal increases in lifespan. We found that 3 or more days of contiguous dietary restriction (DR) was necessary to yield a lifespan extension similar to that observed with persistent DR. Female flies were more responsive to these interventions than males. Physiologic changes known to be associated with prolonged DR, such as reduced metabolic rates, showed the same time course as lifespan extension. Moreover, concurrent transcriptional changes indicative of reduced insulin signaling were identified with DR. These physiologic and transcriptional changes were sustained, as they were detectable several days after switching to conventional diets. Taken together, diets with longer periods of DR extended lifespan concurrently with physiologic and transcriptional changes that may underlie this increase in lifespan.-Romey-Glüsing, R., Li, Y., Hoffmann, J., von Frieling, J., Knop, M., Pfefferkorn, R., Bruchhaus, I., Fink, C., Roeder, T. Nutritional regimens with periodically recurring phases of dietary restriction extend lifespan in Drosophila.

The rise and fall of periodic 'drumbeat' seismicity at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Andrew F.; Hernandez, Stephen; Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario; Sierra, Daniel; Aguaiza, Santiago

2017-10-01

Highly periodic 'drumbeat' long period (LP) earthquakes have been described from several andesitic and dacitic volcanoes, commonly accompanying incremental ascent and effusion of viscous magma. However, the processes controlling the occurrence and characteristics of drumbeat, and LP earthquakes more generally, remain contested. Here we use new quantitative tools to describe the emergence, evolution, and degradation of drumbeat LP seismicity at the andesitic Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, in April 2015. The signals were recorded during an episode of minor explosive activity and ash emission, without lava effusion, and are the first to be reported at Tungurahua during the ongoing 17 yrs of eruption. Following four days of high levels of continuous and 'pulsed' tremor, highly-periodic LP earthquakes first appear on 10 April. Over the next four days, inter-event times and event amplitudes evolve through a series of step-wise transitions between stable behaviors, each involving a decrease in the degree of periodicity. Families of similar waveforms persist before, during, and after drumbeat activity, but the activity levels of different families change coincidentally with transitions in event rate, amplitude, and periodicity. A complex micro-seismicity 'initiation' sequence shows pulse-like and stepwise changes in inter-event times and amplitudes in the hours preceding the onset of drumbeat activity that indicate a partial de-coupling between event size and rate. The observations increase the phenomenology of drumbeat LP earthquakes, and suggest that at Tungurahua they result from gas flux and rapid depressurization controlled by shear failure of the margins of the ascending magma column.

Alteration of the oral environment in patients undergoing esophagectomy during the perioperative period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masami Yoshioka

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: During the perioperative period, oral ingestion is changed considerably in esophagectomy patients. The aim of this study was to investigate oral environment modifications in patients undergoing esophageal cancer treatments due to changes in dietary intake and swallowing functions. Material and Methods: Thirty patients who underwent operation for removal of esophageal cancer in Tokushima University Hospital were enrolled in this study. Results: It was found that 1 the flow rate of resting saliva decreased significantly at postoperative period by deprived feeding for one week, although it did not recover several days after oral ingestion began, 2 the accumulation of dental plaque and the number of mutans streptococci in saliva decreased significantly after operation, while both increased relatively quick when oral ingestion began, and 3 the swallowing function decreased significantly in the postoperative period. Conclusions: These results suggest that dental professionals should emphasize the importance of oral health care and provide instructions on plaque control to patients during the perioperative period of esophageal cancer treatment.

Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilfold, Nicholas W; Hedman, Daryll; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Lunn, Nicholas J; Richardson, Evan

2016-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporarily detained by Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship during the open-water period near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, in 2009-2014. Polar bears were given access to water but not food and held for a median length of 17 d. Median mass loss rates were 1.0 kg/d, while median mass-specific loss rates were 0.5%/d, similar to other species with high adiposity and prolonged fasting capacities. Mass loss by unfed captive adult males was identical to that lost by free-ranging individuals, suggesting that terrestrial feeding contributes little to offset mass loss. The inferred metabolic rate was comparable to a basal mammalian rate, suggesting that while on land, polar bears can maintain a depressed metabolic rate to conserve energy. Finally, we estimated time to starvation for subadults and adult males for the on-land period. Results suggest that at 180 d of fasting, 56%-63% of subadults and 18%-24% of adult males in this study would die of starvation. Results corroborate previous assessments on the limits of polar bear capacity to withstand lengthening ice-free seasons and emphasize the greater sensitivity of subadults to changes in sea ice phenology.

Solar influence on meteor rates and atmospheric density variations at meteor heights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellyett, C.

1977-01-01

A full analysis of radar-determined meteor rates from New Zealand, involving 3,085,574 meteors recorded over a total of 3 1/2 years, and 12,391,976 meteors recorded by the National Research Council of Canada in 8 1/2 years confirms an inverse relationship between meteor rates and solar activity as measured by sunspot numbers. The relationship, significant at the 1% level, appears in the Canadian annual average when the abnormal 1963 increase is removed, in monthly and 1/3-monthly results for the total Canadian period, and in monthly intervals for 1 year of the New Zealand data. This proven relationship of meteor rates with the solar cycle calls for a significant density gradient change over the solar cycle in the 70- to-120-km height range. Although some definite negative results have been reported, no unambiguous positive results are yet available supporting such a density gradient change. It is possible that density variations due to annual, semiannual, diurnal, and latitudinal changes obscure any 11-year density gradient change occurring at these heights. It is uncertain whether the 1963 increase represents density gradient changes in the meteor ablation region regularly brought about 1-2 years before each sunspot minimum or is a special event due to volcanic dust. The following additional facts have emerged from the present analysis. (1) Within a 1-year period the seasonal rate change of astronomical origin overrides any density gradient change in controlling the meteor rates in one of the two hemispheres. (2) The earth's daily rotation alters rates in phase with probable diurnal density gradient changes. (3) An effect due to D region absorption has been observed in the Canadian data

The Danish fish fauna during the warm Atlantic period (ca. 7000-3900 bc): Forerunner of future changes?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enghoff, I.B.; MacKenzie, Brian; Eg Nielsen, Einar

2007-01-01

Vast amounts of fish bone lie preserved in Denmark's soil as remains of prehistoric fishing. Fishing was particularly important during the Atlantic period (ca. 7000-3900 bc, i.e. part of the Mesolithic Stone Age). At this time, sea temperature and salinity were higher in waters around Denmark than...... today. Analyses of more than 100,000 fish bones from various settlements from this period document which fish species were common in coastal Danish waters at this time. This study provides a basis for comparing the fish fauna in the warm Stone Age sea with the tendencies seen and predicted today...... frequently caught species in the Danish Stone Age sea. These results demonstrate that major changes to the fish fauna near Denmark will occur as climate changes. However, exploitable cod populations can potentially be maintained in waters near Denmark, including the North Sea, but the vulnerability...

Assessing the Effects of Periodic Flooding on the Population Structure and Recruitment Rates of Riparian Tree Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Sébastien Berthelot

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Riparian forest stands are subjected to a variety of hydrological stresses as a result of annual fluctuations in water levels during the growing season. Spring floods create additional water-related stress as a result of a major inflow of water that floods riverside land. This exploratory study assesses the impacts of successive floods on tree dynamics and regeneration in an active sedimentation area, while determining the age of the stands using the recruitment rates, tree structure and tree rings based on dendrochronological analysis. Environmental data were also recorded for each vegetation quadrat. In total, 2633 tree stems were tallied throughout the quadrats (200 m2, and tree specimens were analyzed based on the various flood zones. A total of 720 specimens were counted (100 m2 strip to measure natural regeneration. Higher recruitment rates are noted for the no-flood zones and lower rates in active floodplains. During the period of the establishment of tree species, the survival rates are comparable between the flood zones and the no-flood zones. Tree diameter distribution reveals a strong predominance of young trees in flooded areas. Different factors appear to come into play in the dynamics of riparian forest stands, including the disruptions associated with successive flooding.

Determination of varying consumption rates from radiotracer data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwell, L.L.; Schreckhise, R.G.

1976-01-01

Data obtained on the uptake and elimination of phosphorus-32 by foraging grasshoppers were utilized to estimate consumption rates of blue grama grass (Bouteloua gracilis). Grasshoppers were caged in field enclosures containing blue grama grass labeled with 32 P. Periodic measurements were made to determine the body burdens of the grasshoppers and concentration of 32 P in the grass. This information, along with a two-component exponential function which was observed to best mathematically describe the retention of acutely ingested phosphorus, provided the basis for a convolution integral of the consumption rate. The consumption rate was estimated by dividing the observed body burden of the grasshopper by the convolution integral of the input (grass concentration) and impulse (retention curve) function over each observation period. Successive calculations of the consumption rates were made at various points in time as the body burden changed from continued feeding on labeled forage

Are meteorological conditions favoring hail precipitation change in Southern Europe? Analysis of the period 1948-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, J. L.; Merino, A.; Melcón, P.; García-Ortega, E.; Fernández-González, S.; Berthet, C.; Dessens, J.

2017-12-01

In the context of a warming climate, one of the variables currently under investigation is related to the detection of possible changes in hail precipitation. In this work, we analyze hail frequencies in one of the most affected areas by this phenomenon in Europe, southern France. Here, an extensive hail detection network has been in operation since 1988. In general, the detection of hailfall is very uncertain. To overcome the constraints of scarcity and poor standardization of hail detection and monitoring systems, some relationships between hailstorm occurrence and synoptic, mesoscale or thermodynamic atmospheric characteristics have been proposed in different areas. Therefore, we analyzed meteorological fields at synoptic scale that are related to the formation of hailstorms in the study area, i.e., geopotential height at 500 hPa, sea level pressure, and lapse-rate between 850 and 500 hPa. These fields describe the state of the atmosphere at low and mid levels, and facilitate the evaluation of thermal and dynamic instability. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen estimator, we examined trends in the three fields during the period 1948-2015 and their spatial patterns, revealing an evolution toward synoptic environments that favor hail precipitation in the Mediterranean region.

Service evaluation of an educational intervention to improve sexual health services in primary care implemented using a step-wedge design: analysis of chlamydia testing and diagnosis rate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Town, Katy; McNulty, Cliodna A M; Ricketts, Ellie J; Hartney, Thomas; Nardone, Anthony; Folkard, Kate A; Charlett, Andre; Dunbar, J Kevin

2016-08-02

Providing sexual health services in primary care is an essential step towards universal provision. However they are not offered consistently. We conducted a national pilot of an educational intervention to improve staff's skills and confidence to increase chlamydia testing rates and provide condoms with contraceptive information plus HIV testing according to national guidelines, known as 3Cs&HIV. The effectiveness of the pilot on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates in general practice was evaluated. The pilot was implemented using a step-wedge design over three phases during 2013 and 2014 in England. The intervention combined educational workshops with posters, testing performance feedback and continuous support. Chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates in participating general practices during the control and intervention periods were compared adjusting for seasonal trends in chlamydia testing and differences in practice size. Intervention effect modification was assessed for the following general practice characteristics: chlamydia testing rate compared to national median, number of general practice staff employed, payment for chlamydia screening, practice urban/rurality classification, and proximity to sexual health clinics. The 460 participating practices conducted 26,021 tests in the control period and 18,797 tests during the intervention period. Intention-to-treat analysis showed no change in the unadjusted median tests and diagnoses per month per practice after receiving training: 2.7 vs 2.7; 0.1 vs 0.1. Multivariable negative binomial regression analysis found no significant change in overall testing or diagnoses post-intervention (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.01, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.96-1.07, P = 0.72; 0.98 CI 0.84-1.15, P = 0.84, respectively). Stratified analysis showed testing increased significantly in practices where payments were in place prior to the intervention (IRR 2.12 CI 1.41-3.18, P service improvement intervention to

Trend of oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in Brazil in the period of 2002 to 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Perea, Lillia Magali Estrada; Peres, Marco Aurélio; Boing, Antonio Fernando; Antunes, José Leopoldo Ferreira

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality rates in the period of 2002 to 2013 in Brazil according to sex, anatomical site, and macroregion of the country. METHODS The mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The trend of the rates standardized by sex and age was calculated using the Prais-Winsten estimation, and we obtained the annual percentage change and the respective 95% confidence intervals, analyzed according to sex, macroregion, and anatomical site. RESULTS The average coefficient of oral cancer mortality was 1.87 per 100,000 inhabitants and it remained stable during the study period. The coefficient of pharyngeal cancer mortality was 2.04 per 100,000 inhabitants and it presented an annual percentage change of -2.6%. Approximately eight in every 10 deaths occurred among men. There was an increase in the rates of oral cancer in the Northeast region (annual percentage change of 6.9%) and a decrease in the Southeast region (annual percentage change of -2.9%). Pharyngeal cancer mortality decreased in the Southeast and South regions with annual percentage change of -4.8% and -5.1% respectively. Cancer mortality for tonsil, other major salivary glands, hypopharynx, and other and unspecified parts of mouth and pharynx showed a decreasing trend while the other sites presented stability. CONCLUSIONS Pharyngeal cancer mortality decreased in the period of 2002 to 2013. Oral cancer increased only in the Northeast region. Mortality for tonsil cancer, other major salivary glands, hypopharynx, and other and ill-defined sites in the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx decreased. PMID:29412371

The declined levels of inflammatory cytokines related with weaning rate during period of septic patients using ventilators.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chao-Huei; Hsiao, Jung-Lung; Wu, Ming-Feng; Lu, Mei-Hua; Chang, Hui-Ming; Ko, Wang-Sheng; Chiou, Ya-Ling

2018-02-01

Approximately 50% of patients with sepsis-induced acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome require mechanical ventilation. Patients with extended mechanical ventilator use routinely develop reinfections, which increases hospital stay, mortality, and health care cost. Some studies have pointed out inflammatory factors concentrations can affect ventilator weaning, but do not indicate changed inflammatory factors related to ventilator weaning during using ventilators. This study aimed to investigate during period of septic patients using ventilators, the inflammatory cytokines concentrations related with weaning rate. Blood was collected from 35 septic patients before and during ventilator use on days 1, 7, 14, and 21 (or weaning). 58.3% (N = 20) of septic patients with mechanical ventilators were weaned successfully within 21 days (ventilator weaned group, VW), 16.7% (N = 6) did not wean within 21 days (ventilator dependent group, VD), and 25% died (death group) in hospital. Before ventilator use, higher C-reactive protein (CRP), IL-6, and IL-8 levels were measured in the death group than in all other groups (P ventilator use, CRP, IL-6, and IL-8 concentrations declined significantly in VW and VD patients (P ventilators weaning successfully such as disease control, nutritional status, and so on. The declined levels of serum inflammatory cytokines, especially IL-6, improved inflammation status might be one factor of successfully weaning during septic patients on ventilators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Real time monitoring of pulsatile change in hemoglobin concentrations of cerebral tissue by a portable tissue oximeter with a 10-Hz sampling rate

Science.gov (United States)

Shiga, Toshikazu; Chihara, Eiichi; Tanabe, Kazuhisa; Tanaka, Yoshifumi; Yamamoto, Katsuyuki

1998-01-01

A portable CW tissue oximeter of a 10-Hz sampling rate was developed for examination of pulsatile components of the output signals as a mean of checking the signal reliability during long-term monitoring. Feasible studies were performed on a healthy subject. Changes in Hb and HbO2 signals of cerebral tissue were continuously measured by placing a photoprobe on the forehead during 6-hour sleep. Pulsatile changes in Hb and HbO2 were steadily observed over a whole period of the recording. The phase relation of pulsation in Hb and HbO2 was almost inverse. Not only information for reliable monitoring but also physiological parameters with respect to cerebral circulation and metabolism could be obtained by measuring the pulsatile components.

ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josip Arnerić

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

Patterns of Interspecific Variation in the Heart Rates of Embryonic Reptiles

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Wei-Guo; Ye, Hua; Zhao, Bo; Pizzatto, Ligia; Ji, Xiang; Shine, Richard

2011-01-01

New non-invasive technologies allow direct measurement of heart rates (and thus, developmental rates) of embryos. We applied these methods to a diverse array of oviparous reptiles (24 species of lizards, 18 snakes, 11 turtles, 1 crocodilian), to identify general influences on cardiac rates during embryogenesis. Heart rates increased with ambient temperature in all lineages, but (at the same temperature) were faster in lizards and turtles than in snakes and crocodilians. We analysed these data within a phylogenetic framework. Embryonic heart rates were faster in species with smaller adult sizes, smaller egg sizes, and shorter incubation periods. Phylogenetic changes in heart rates were negatively correlated with concurrent changes in adult body mass and residual incubation period among the lizards, snakes (especially within pythons) and crocodilians. The total number of embryonic heart beats between oviposition and hatching was lower in squamates than in turtles or the crocodilian. Within squamates, embryonic iguanians and gekkonids required more heartbeats to complete development than did embryos of the other squamate families that we tested. These differences plausibly reflect phylogenetic divergence in the proportion of embryogenesis completed before versus after laying. PMID:22174948

Effects of Orthostatism and Hemodialysis on Mean Heart Period and Fractal Heart Rate Properties of Chronic Renal Failure Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Echeverría, Juan C; Infante, Oscar; Pérez-Grovas, Héctor; González, Hortensia; José, Marco V; Lerma, Claudia

2017-11-01

The aim of this work was to evaluate the short-term fractal index (α 1 ) of heart rate variability (HRV) in chronic renal failure (CRF) patients by identifying the effects of orthostatism and hemodialysis (HD), and by evaluating the correlation between α 1 and the mean RR interval from sinus beats (meanNN). HRV time series were derived from ECG data of 19 CRF patients and 20 age-matched healthy subjects obtained at supine and orthostatic positions (lasting 5 min each). Data from CRF patients were collected before and after HD. α 1 was calculated from each time series and compared by analysis of variance. Pearson's correlations between meanNN and α 1 were calculated using the data from both positions by considering three groups: healthy subjects, CRF before HD and CRF after HD. At supine position, α 1 of CRF patients after HD (1.17 ± 0.30) was larger (P renal disease condition in itself. In conclusion, as in healthy subjects, α 1 of CRF patients correlates with meanNN after HD (indicating a more irregular-like HRV behavior at slower heart rates). This suggests that CRF patients with stable blood pressure preserve a regulatory adaptability despite a shifted setting point of the heart period (i.e., higher heart rate) in comparison with healthy subjects. © 2017 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exploring predictors of change in behavioral problems over a 1-year period in preterm born preschoolers.

Science.gov (United States)

Schappin, Renske; Wijnroks, Lex; Uniken Venema, Monica; Jongmans, Marian

2018-02-01

Although predictors of the prevalence of behavioral problems in preterm-born children have been frequently studied, predictors of behavioral change in these children remain unknown. Therefore, in this study we explore predictors of short-term changes in problem behavior in preterm-born preschoolers, an age period characterized by rapid behavioral change. Two- to 5-year-old children born with a gestational age behavioral problems. Following screening, 59 children with a t-score ≥60 on either the internal, external or total problem scale of the Child Behavior Checklist were included in the study. Linear mixed modeling was used to investigate predictors of change in behavior over a 1-year period. Higher levels of parenting stress, parent perceived child vulnerability, and parental hostility towards the child and lower educational levels of the mother significantly predicted increases in externalizing behavior. The higher the age of the child, the more internalizing problems decreased. Parenting stress, parent perceived child vulnerability and parental hostility towards the child were the only modifiable predictors of increases in externalizing behavior, whilst no modifiable predictors of internalizing behavior were found. There may be a reciprocal interaction between stress in parents and child externalizing problems. Furthermore, stress and worries may directly influence parents' reports on behavioral measures, because it could cause them to be concerned by behavior otherwise perceived as normal. Therefore, future interventions for parents of preterm-born children should primarily address parental stress and concerns regarding their child. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Magnetospheric Truncation, Tidal Inspiral, and the Creation of Short-period and Ultra-short-period Planets