WorldWideScience

Sample records for period 2071-2100 ranged

  1. Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neukom, Raphael; Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; Rohrer, Mario; Calanca, Pierluigi; Acuña, Delia; Christie, Duncan A; Morales, Mariano S

    2015-01-01

    Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000–2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965–2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16–84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 20712100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071

  2. 40 CFR 52.2071 - Classification of regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Classification of regions. 52.2071 Section 52.2071 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... quality control region Pollutant Particulate matter Sulfur oxides Nitrogen dioxide Carbon monoxide Ozone...

  3. 50 CFR 20.71 - Violation of Federal law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... export any migratory bird, or any part, nest, or egg of any such bird, in violation of any act of... WILDLIFE AND PLANTS (CONTINUED) MIGRATORY BIRD HUNTING Federal, State, and Foreign Law § 20.71 Violation of...

  4. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2004-08-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

  5. Modelling the time-variant dietary exposure of PCBs in China over the period 1930 to 2100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shizhen; Breivik, Knut; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2018-06-06

    This study aimed for the first time to reconstruct historical exposure profiles for PCBs to the Chinese population, by examining the combined effect of changing temporal emissions and dietary transition. A long-term (1930-2100) dynamic simulation of human exposure using realistic emission scenarios, including primary emissions, unintentional emissions and emissions from e-waste, combined with dietary transition trends was conducted by a multimedia fate model (BETR-Global) linked to a bioaccumulation model (ACC-HUMAN). The model predicted an approximate 30-year delay of peak body burden for PCB-153 in a 30-year-old Chinese female, compared to their European counterpart. This was mainly attributed to a combination of change in diet and divergent emission patterns in China. A fish-based diet was predicted to result in up to 8 times higher body burden than a vegetable-based diet (2010-2100). During the production period, a worst-case scenario assuming only consumption of imported food from a region with more extensive production and usage of PCBs would result in up to 4 times higher body burden compared to consumption of only locally produced food. However, such differences gradually diminished after cessation of production. Therefore, emission reductions in China alone may not be sufficient to protect human health for PCB-like chemicals, particularly during the period of mass production. The results from this study illustrate that human exposure is also likely to be dictated by inflows of PCBs via the environment, waste and food.

  6. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  7. Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air

  8. Climate changes and energy safety in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaeffer, Roberto; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira de; Souza, Raquel Rodrigues de; Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar; Costa, Isabella Vaz Leal da; Pereira Junior, Amaro Olimpio; Cunha, Sergio Henrique F. da

    2008-01-01

    The possible effects of climate changes on the supply and demand of energy in the country are analyzed. The goal is to evaluate how the Brazilian energy system planned for 2030 would face the climate new conditions projected for the period of 2071 a 2100. The study also points out energy policy measurements which can be adopted to relief the negative impacts

  9. Spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Politi, Nadia; Kapsomenakis, John

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to study the spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index (AI) in Greece, per decade, during the 50-year period (1951-2000). Besides, the projected changes in ensemble mean AI between the period 1961-1990 (reference period) and the periods 2021-2050 (near future) and 2071-2100 (far future) along with the inter-model standard deviations were presented, based on the simulation results, derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs), within the ENSEMBLE European Project. The projection of the future climate was done under SRES A1B. The climatic data used, concern monthly precipitation totals and air temperature from 28 meteorological stations (22 stations from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and 6 stations from neighboring countries, taken from the Monthly Climatic Data for the World). The estimation of the AI was carried out based on the potential evapotranspiration (PET) defined by Thornthwaite (1948). The data processing was done by the application of the statistical package R-project and the Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The results of the analysis showed that, within the examined period (1951-2000), a progressive shift from the "humid" class, which characterized the wider area of Greece, towards the "sub-humid" and "semi-arid" classes appeared in the eastern Crete Island, the Cyclades complex, the Evia and Attica, that is mainly the eastern Greece. The most significant change appears during the period 1991-2000. The future projections at the end of twentieth century, using ensemble mean simulations from 8 RCMs, show that drier conditions are expected to establish in regions of Greece (Attica, eastern continental Greece, Cyclades, Dodecanese, eastern Crete Island and northern Aegean). The inter-model standard deviation over these regions ranges from 0.02 to 0.05 against high values (0.09-0.15) illustrated in western mountainous continental Greece, during 2021-2050. Higher values of inter

  10. Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S. E.; Fisk, J.; Bodirsky, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heinimann, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krisztin, T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lawrence, P.; Mertz, O.; Popp, A.; Riahi, K.; Stehfest, E.; van Vuuren, D.; de Waal, L.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESM) able to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, a new set of historical data based on HYDE, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are being developed as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, and key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off the approach from CMIP5, and is provided at higher resolution (0.25x0.25 degree), over longer time domain (850-2100), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management), using more inputs (including Landsat data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain >50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the

  11. 5 CFR 2100.12 - Accounting of disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Accounting of disclosure. 2100.12 Section... PROCEDURES § 2100.12 Accounting of disclosure. (a) The AFRH or agency will maintain a record of disclosures... in the performance of their duties. (b) This accounting of the disclosures will be retained for a...

  12. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars; Engqvist, Anders; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias

    2009-01-01

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about ± 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  13. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  14. Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, Adrian E.; Zimmer, Alec; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Startz, Richard; Liu, Peiran

    2017-09-01

    The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries, we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 °C, with median 3.2 °C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2 °C (1.5 °C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. Our model is not a `business as usual' scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 °C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.

  15. 21 CFR 522.2100 - Selenium, vitamin E injection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Selenium, vitamin E injection. 522.2100 Section... § 522.2100 Selenium, vitamin E injection. (a)(1) Specifications. The drug is an emulsion containing in... of vitamin E (68 I.U.) (as d-alpha tocopheryl acetate). (2) Sponsor. See No. 000061 in § 510.600(c...

  16. Assessment of climate change impacts on runoff in China using climate elasticity and multiple CMIP5 GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C.; Hu, B. X.; Wang, P.; Xu, K.

    2017-12-01

    The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal and is expected to alter the temporal-spatial patterns of regional water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2012) water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results indicate a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. Climate projections suggest that there is large uncertainty involved among the GCM simulations, but most project a consistent change in P (or PET) over China at the mean annual scale. During the future period of 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China particularly the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in the whole China especially the southern regions due to future increases in temperature. Moreover, larger increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Compared with the baseline 1971-2000, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively.

  17. Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuanhao; Hu, Bill X.; Huang, Guoru; Wang, Peng; Xu, Kai

    2018-03-01

    China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2008) water budget data and climate projections from 28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.2 to -0.1) across China. The P elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from -2.4 to 3.6 % yr-1 across China, with the negative contribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P is projected to increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000).

  18. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  19. 5 CFR 2100.10 - Conditions of disclosure and accounting of certain disclosures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Conditions of disclosure and accounting of certain disclosures. 2100.10 Section 2100.10 Administrative Personnel ARMED FORCES RETIREMENT HOME ARMED FORCES RETIREMENT HOME PRIVACY ACT PROCEDURES § 2100.10 Conditions of disclosure and accounting of...

  20. Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

  1. Mass Balance Evolution of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, 1980–2100, and Its Implications for Surge Recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Kienholz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Surge-type Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, has undergone strong retreat since it last surged in 1936–1937. To assess its evolution during the late Twentieth and Twenty-first centuries and determine potential implications for surge likelihood, we run a simplified glacier model over the periods 1980–2015 (hindcasting and 2015–2100 (forecasting. The model is forced by daily temperature and precipitation fields, with downscaled reanalysis data used for the hindcasting. A constant climate scenario and an RCP 8.5 scenario based on the GFDL-CM3 climate model are employed for the forecasting. Debris evolution is accounted for by a debris layer time series derived from satellite imagery (hindcasting and a parametrized debris evolution model (forecasting. A retreat model accounts for the evolution of the glacier geometry. Model calibration, validation and parametrization rely on an extensive set of in situ and remotely sensed observations. To explore uncertainties in our projections, we run the glacier model in a Monte Carlo fashion, varying key model parameters and input data within plausible ranges. Our results for the hindcasting period indicate a negative mass balance trend, caused by atmospheric warming in the summer, precipitation decrease in the winter and surface elevation lowering (climate-elevation feedback, which exceed the moderating effects from increasing debris cover and glacier retreat. Without the 2002 rockslide deposits on Black Rapids' lower reaches, the mass balances would be more negative, by ~20% between the 2003 and 2015 mass-balance years. Despite its retreat, Black Rapids Glacier is substantially out of balance with the current climate. By 2100, ~8% of Black Rapids' 1980 area are projected to vanish under the constant climate scenario and ~73% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. For both scenarios, the remaining glacier portions are out of balance, suggesting continued retreat after 2100. Due to mass starvation, a surge in the Twenty

  2. The Surface Reactions of Ethanol over UO2(100) Thin Film

    KAUST Repository

    Senanayake, Sanjaya D.

    2015-10-08

    The study of the reactions of oxygenates on well-defined oxide surfaces is important for the fundamental understanding of heterogeneous chemical pathways that are influenced by atomic geometry, electronic structure and chemical composition. In this work, an ordered uranium oxide thin film surface terminated in the (100) orientation is prepared on a LaAlO3 substrate and studied for its reactivity with a C-2 oxygenate, ethanol (CH3CH2OH). With the use of synchrotron X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), we have probed the adsorption and desorption processes observed in the valence band, C1s, O1s and U4f to investigate the bonding mode, surface composition, electronic structure and probable chemical changes to the stoichiometric-UO2(100) [smooth-UO2(100)] and Ar+-sputtered UO2(100) [rough-UO2(100)] surfaces. Unlike UO2(111) single crystal and UO2 thin film, Ar-ion sputtering of this UO2(100) did not result in noticeable reduction of U cations. The ethanol molecule has C-C, C-H, C-O and O-H bonds, and readily donates the hydroxyl H while interacting strongly with the UO2 surfaces. Upon ethanol adsorption (saturation occurred at 0.5 ML), only ethoxy (CH3CH2O-) species is formed on smooth-UO2(100) whereas initially formed ethoxy species are partially oxidized to surface acetate (CH3COO-) on the Ar+-sputtered UO2(100) surface. All ethoxy and acetate species are removed from the surface between 600 and 700 K.

  3. The Surface Reactions of Ethanol over UO2(100) Thin Film

    KAUST Repository

    Senanayake, Sanjaya D.; Mudiyanselage, Kumudu; Burrell, Anthony K; Sadowski, Jerzy T.; Idriss, Hicham

    2015-01-01

    The study of the reactions of oxygenates on well-defined oxide surfaces is important for the fundamental understanding of heterogeneous chemical pathways that are influenced by atomic geometry, electronic structure and chemical composition. In this work, an ordered uranium oxide thin film surface terminated in the (100) orientation is prepared on a LaAlO3 substrate and studied for its reactivity with a C-2 oxygenate, ethanol (CH3CH2OH). With the use of synchrotron X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), we have probed the adsorption and desorption processes observed in the valence band, C1s, O1s and U4f to investigate the bonding mode, surface composition, electronic structure and probable chemical changes to the stoichiometric-UO2(100) [smooth-UO2(100)] and Ar+-sputtered UO2(100) [rough-UO2(100)] surfaces. Unlike UO2(111) single crystal and UO2 thin film, Ar-ion sputtering of this UO2(100) did not result in noticeable reduction of U cations. The ethanol molecule has C-C, C-H, C-O and O-H bonds, and readily donates the hydroxyl H while interacting strongly with the UO2 surfaces. Upon ethanol adsorption (saturation occurred at 0.5 ML), only ethoxy (CH3CH2O-) species is formed on smooth-UO2(100) whereas initially formed ethoxy species are partially oxidized to surface acetate (CH3COO-) on the Ar+-sputtered UO2(100) surface. All ethoxy and acetate species are removed from the surface between 600 and 700 K.

  4. Analysis of output trends from Varian 2100C/D and 600C/D accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grattan, M W D; Hounsell, A R

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of Varian linear accelerator output trends is reported. Two groups, consisting of four matched Varian 2100C/D and four matched Varian 600C/D accelerators, with different designs of monitor chamber, have been investigated and the data acquired from regular calibrated ion chamber/electrometer measurements of the output performance of the eight accelerators analysed. The trend of machine output with time, having removed the effect of adjusting the monitor chamber response, was compared on a monthly and annual basis for monitor chambers with ages ranging between 1 year and 7 years. The results indicate that the response is generally consistent within each set of accelerators with different monitor chamber designs. Those used in a Varian 600C/D machine result in a reduction in measured output over time, with an average monthly reduction of 0.35 ± 0.09% over the course of the first 4 years of use. The chambers used in a 2100C/D accelerator result in an increase in measured output over time, with an average monthly increase of 0.26 ± 0.09% over the course of the first 4 years of use. The output increase then reduces towards the end of this period of time, with the average monthly change falling to -0.03 ± 0.02% for the following 3 years. The output response trend was similar for all clinical energies used on the 2100C/D accelerators--6, 15 MV x-ray beams, and 4, 6, 9, 12, 16 and 20 MeV electron beams. By tracking these changes it has been possible to predict the response over time to allow appropriate adjustments in monitor chamber response to maintain a measured accelerator output within tolerance and give confidence in performance. It has also provided data to indicate the need for planned preventative intervention and indicate if the monitor chamber response is behaving as expected. (note)

  5. Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sindhu, B.

    (20712100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast...

  6. Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south

  7. Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2016-04-01

    In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

  8. Climate change impact on flood hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes have a high impact on river discharges and therefore on floods. There are a few different methods we can use to predict discharge changes in the future. In this paper we used the complex HBV model for the Vipava River and simple correlation between discharge and precipitation data for the Soča River. The discharge prediction is based on the E-OBS precipitation data for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 20712100. Estimated discharges for those three future periods are presented for both rivers. But a special situation occurs at the confluence where the two rivers with rather different catchments unite, and this requires an additional probability analysis.

  9. PRECIS Runs at IITM

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. PRECIS Runs at IITM. Evaluation experiment using LBCs derived from ERA-15 (1979-93). Runs (3 ensembles in each experiment) already completed with LBCs having a length of 30 years each, for. Baseline (1961-90); A2 scenario (2071-2100); B2 scenario ...

  10. The Effect of Training at 2100-m Altitude on Running Speed and Session Rating of Perceived Exertion at Different Intensities in Elite Middle-Distance Runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Avish P; Saunders, Philo U; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Clark, Brad; Stanley, Jamie; Robertson, Eileen Y; Thompson, Kevin G

    2017-04-01

    To determine the effect of training at 2100-m natural altitude on running speed (RS) during training sessions over a range of intensities relevant to middle-distance running performance. In an observational study, 19 elite middle-distance runners (mean ± SD age 25 ± 5 y, VO 2 max, 71 ± 5 mL · kg -1 · min -1 ) completed either 4-6 wk of sea-level training (CON, n = 7) or a 4- to 5-wk natural altitude-training camp living at 2100 m and training at 1400-2700 m (ALT, n = 12) after a period of sea-level training. Each training session was recorded on a GPS watch, and athletes also provided a score for session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE). Training sessions were grouped according to duration and intensity. RS (km/h) and sRPE from matched training sessions completed at sea level and 2100 m were compared within ALT, with sessions completed at sea level in CON describing normal variation. In ALT, RS was reduced at altitude compared with sea level, with the greatest decrements observed during threshold- and VO 2 max-intensity sessions (5.8% and 3.6%, respectively). Velocity of low-intensity and race-pace sessions completed at a lower altitude (1400 m) and/or with additional recovery was maintained in ALT, though at a significantly greater sRPE (P = .04 and .05, respectively). There was no change in velocity or sRPE at any intensity in CON. RS in elite middle-distance athletes is adversely affected at 2100-m natural altitude, with levels of impairment dependent on the intensity of training. Maintenance of RS at certain intensities while training at altitude can result in a higher perceived exertion.

  11. Development of a “Current Energy Mix Scenario” and a “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario” for electricity demand up to 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário J. S. Brito

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we develop a model to forecast world electricity production up to 2100. We analyze historical data for electricity production, population and GDP per Capita for the period 1900–2008. We show that electricity production follows general trends. First, there is an electricity intensity target of 0.20-0.25 kWh per unit of GDP (US$2012 as economies mature, except in countries traditionally relying heavily on renewable electricity (hydroelectricity, for whom this target ranges between 0.50 to 0.80 kWh per unit GDP. Also, countries that belong to the same region tend to follow the evolution of electricity production and GDP/Capita of a regional “modelcountry”. Equations that describe the behavior of these model countries are used to forecast electricity production per capita up to 2100 under a low and a high scenario for the evolution of GDP per Capita. For electricity production two main scenarios were set: “Current Energy MixScenario” and “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario”, with two additional sub scenarios considering slightly different electric intensities. Forecasts up to 2100 yield a demand forelectricity production 3.5 to 5 times higher than the current production for the “Current EnergyMix Scenario” and about 9 to 14 times for the “Electricity as Main Energy Source Scenario”. Forecasts for the “Current Energy Mix Scenario” matched well with forecasts from IEA/EIA (International Energy Agency/ Energy Information Administration while the forecasts for the“Electricity as the Main Energy Source Scenario” are much higher than current predictions.

  12. GENIE Production Release 2.10.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alam, M. [Aligarh Muslim Univ., Aligarh (India). Dept. of Physics; Andreopoulos, C. [Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), Oxford (United Kingdom). Rutherford Appleton Lab. (RAL); Athar, M. [Aligarh Muslim Univ., Aligarh (India). Dept. of Physics; Bodek, A. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States). Dept. of Physics; Christy, E. [Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Coopersmith, B. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States). Dept. of Physics; Dennis, S. [Univ. of Warwick, Coventry (United Kingdom). Dept .of Physics; Dytman, S. [Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Gallagher, H. [Tufts Univ., Medford, MA (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Geary, N. [Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Golan, T. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States). Dept. of Physics; Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Hatcher, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Hoshina, K. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Physics. Wisconsin IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center; Liu, J. [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Mahn, K. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Marshall, C. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States). Dept. of Physics; Morrison, J. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Nirkko, M. [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Albert Einstein Center for Fundamental Physics. Lab. for High Energy Physics (LHEP); Nowak, J. [Lancaster Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics; Perdue, G. N. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Yarba, J. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

    2015-12-25

    GENIE is a neutrino Monte Carlo event generator that simulates the primary interaction of a neutrino with a nuclear target, along with the subsequent propagation of the reaction products through the nuclear medium. It additionally contains libraries for fully-featured detector geometries and for managing various types of neutrino flux. This note details recent updates to GENIE, in particular, changes introduced into the newest production release, version 2.10.0.

  13. GENIE Production Release 2.10.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam, M.; Athar, M.; Hatcher, R.; Hoshina, K.; Nowak, J.; Yarba, J.

    2015-01-01

    GENIE is a neutrino Monte Carlo event generator that simulates the primary interaction of a neutrino with a nuclear target, along with the subsequent propagation of the reaction products through the nuclear medium. It additionally contains libraries for fully-featured detector geometries and for managing various types of neutrino flux. This note details recent updates to GENIE, in particular, changes introduced into the newest production release, version 2.10.0.

  14. Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-e Tao

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Reference evapotranspiration (ET0 is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ET0 in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB in China were analyzed. ET0 during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith (FAO P-M method, while ET0 during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ET0 were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted (IDW method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that: (1 the mean annual ET0 of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; (2 the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ET0 and can be used to predict the future ET0 in the XJRB; and (3 CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ET0 under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period (1961–1990, ET0 increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ET0 under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.

  15. The impacts of climate change on soils. Investigations of impacts of climate change on soil erosion by water; Wirkungen der Klimaaenderungen auf die Boeden. Untersuchungen zu Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Bodenerosion durch Wasser

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wurbs, Daniel [Geoflux GbR, Halle (Saale) (Germany); Steininger, Michael [Mitteldeutsches Institut fuer angewandte Standortkunde und Bodenschutz (MISB), Halle (Saale) (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    Climate forecasts regarding the 21st century raise expectations in soil erosion growth mainly due to changes in heavy precipitation characteristics and ground cover in line with the adaptation of the crop growing season to future climatic conditions. The aim of this study initiated by the Federal Environmental Agency was, to examine the impacts of climate change on soil erosion by water in Germany using data calculated by the statistical climate model WETTREG. Soil erosion by water was estimated following an USLE approach implemented in ABAGFlux and TerraFlux with focus on the usage-based erosion potential in German agricultural areas. In the 2nd project phase the USLE R factor was recalculated for the recent (1971-2000) and future climate periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) using statistical methods such as the peak over threshold method. Furthermore the climate-induced change of the C-factor was analyzed with respect to changes of culture periods, ground cover and the monthly R factor. Scenarios regarding future percentage of conservation tillage systems as also the potential and usage-based soil erosion for these four climate periods have been modelled. The results underline a requirement to differentiate the view on temporal and spatial development of R factors and potential soil erosion. There are minor changes between 2011 and 2040 followed by an increased erosion hazard in western and north-western Germany after 2041 while eastern and southern Germany face a downward trend of R factors, derived using WETTREG data of a reference period 1971 to 2000. Between 2071 and 2100 potential soil erosion rises with R factors above the actual state due to more heavy rain falls nearly all over Germany. The resulting temporal offset of culture periods and the monthly distribution of the R factor cause rising C factors in all time periods as also increasing usage-based soil erosion hazard in Germany. This study shows that soil erosion exists in Germany. The problem

  16. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 20712100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  17. Evolution of star-bearing molecular clouds: the high-velocity HCO+ flow in NGC 2071

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wootten, A.; Loren, R.B.; Sandqvist, A.; Friberg, P.; Hjalmarson, Aa.

    1984-01-01

    The J = 1-0 and J = 302 lines of HCO + and H 13 CO + have been observed in the molecular cloud NGC 2071, where they map the dense portions of a bidirectional molecular flow. The high resolution (42'') of our observations has enabled us to determine the distribution of mass, momentum , and energy in the flow as a function of projected distance from the cluster. Both momentum and energy diminish with distance from the central cluster of infrared sources. The highest velocities at a given intensity in this dense flow occur in a limited region coincident with an infrared cluster and the densest part of the molecular cloud. Higher resolution (33'') CO and 13 CO observations reveal that the extreme velocities in the flow occur in regions displaced on opposite sides of the cluster, suggesting that the flow only becomes visible in molecular line emission at distances approx.0.1 pc from its supposed source. Lower velocity material containing most of the mass of the flow is found over larger regions, as expected if the flow has decelerated as it has evolved. Assuming conservation of momentum, the historical rate of momentum injection is found to have been roughly constant over a period of 10 4 years, suggesting a constancy of the average luminosity of the central cluster over that time. The J = 3--2 HCO + profile does not show the absorption which is a prominent feature of the J = 1--0 profile, and the J = 3--2 line appears to be a useful probe of conditions specific to the dense cores of clouds. The high velocity HCO + emission correlates very well with spatial and velocity events of molecular hydrogen emission. The abundance of HCO + [X(HCO + )approx.10 -8 ], and by inference the electron density, is similar in material at all velocities

  18. The Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in six major cities, South Korea, under representative concentration pathways (RCPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngmin eKim

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: We aimed to quantify the excess mortality associated with increased temperature due to climate change in six major Korean cities under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs which are new emission scenarios designed for the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Methods: We first examined the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in each during the summertime (June to September from 2001 to 2008. This was done using a generalized linear Poisson model with adjustment for a long-term time trend, relative humidity, air pollutants, and day of the week. We then computed heat-related mortality attributable to future climate change using estimated mortality risks, projected future populations, and temperature increments for both future years 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We considered effects from added days with high temperatures over thresholds and shifted effects from high to higher temperature.Results: Estimated excess all-cause mortalities for six cities in Korea ranged from 500 (95% CI: 313-703 for 2041-2070 to 2,320 (95% CI: 1,430-3,281 deaths per year for 2071-2100 under two RCPs. Excess cardiovascular mortality was estimated to range from 192 (95% CI: 41-351 to 896 (95% CI: 185-1,694 deaths per year, covering about 38.5% of all-cause excess mortality. Increased rates of heat-related mortality were higher in cities located at relatively lower latitude than cities with higher latitude. Estimated excess mortality under RCP 8.5, a fossil fuel-intensive emission scenario, was more than twice as high compared with RCP 4.5, low to medium emission scenario.Conclusions: Excess mortality due to climate change is expected to be profound in the future showing spatial variation. Efforts to mitigate climate change can cause substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.

  19. Evaluating the impact of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Bellin, Alberto; Majone, Bruno; Bovolo, C. Isabella; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2010-05-01

    Quantification of the impacts of climate change on water resources depends on the emission scenario, climate model, downscaling technique and impact model used to drive the impact study. Uncertainties in projections of climate models and those involved in the quantification of its hydrological response limit the understanding of future impacts and complicate the assessment of mitigation policies. This work analyses the effects of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (NE Spain), considering the combined effect of uncertainty characterizing both the driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) and hydrological parameterization. In addition, we considered the relative importance of these two contributions. Hydrological simulations in a few test catchments within the basin were performed by using the SWAT model, a widely used hydrological model often applied to large-scale watersheds. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis with Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT), the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used for selecting hydrological parameter sets that best reproduced the observed streamflow during the control period from 1961 to 1991, in terms of percentage of measured data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and the ratio between the average thickness of the 95PPU band and the standard deviation of the measured data. Following validation, the same parameter sets were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflows. A simple bias-correction methodology was used for downscaling daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 RCM time-slice experiments. These were obtained from the PRUDENCE project for a control period (1961-1990) and for a future time period (2071-2100) using the medium-high SRES A2 emissions scenario. The bias-corrected future RCM scenarios were then used to drive the hydrological simulations during the future period

  20. An algorithm for applying flagged Sysmex XE-2100 absolute neutrophil counts in clinical practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Lennart; Saelsen, Lone; Abildstrøm, Steen Z

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Even though most differential leukocyte counts are performed by automated hematology platforms, turn-around time is often prolonged as flagging of test results trigger additional confirmatory manual procedures. However, frequently only the absolute neutrophil count (ANC) is needed. We...... therefore examined if an algorithm could be developed to identify samples in which the automated ANC is valid despite flagged test results. METHODS: During a 3-wk period, a training set consisting of 1448 consecutive flagged test-results from the Sysmex XE-2100 system and associated manual differential...... counts was collected. The training set was used to determine which alarms were associated with valid ANCs. The algorithm was then tested on a new set of 1371 test results collected during a later 3-wk period. RESULTS: Analysis of the training set data revealed that the ANC from test results flagged...

  1. Design of Malaria Diagnostic Criteria for the Sysmex XE-2100 Hematology Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campuzano-Zuluaga, Germán; Álvarez-Sánchez, Gonzalo; Escobar-Gallo, Gloria Elcy; Valencia-Zuluaga, Luz Marina; Ríos-Orrego, Alexandra Marcela; Pabón-Vidal, Adriana; Miranda-Arboleda, Andrés Felipe; Blair-Trujillo, Silvia; Campuzano-Maya, Germán

    2010-01-01

    Thick film, the standard diagnostic procedure for malaria, is not always ordered promptly. A failsafe diagnostic strategy using an XE-2100 analyzer is proposed, and for this strategy, malaria diagnostic models for the XE-2100 were developed and tested for accuracy. Two hundred eighty-one samples were distributed into Plasmodium vivax, P. falciparum, and acute febrile syndrome groups for model construction. Model validation was performed using 60% of malaria cases and a composite control group of samples from AFS and healthy participants from endemic and non-endemic regions. For P. vivax, two observer-dependent models (accuracy = 95.3–96.9%), one non–observer-dependent model using built-in variables (accuracy = 94.7%), and one non–observer-dependent model using new and built-in variables (accuracy = 96.8%) were developed. For P. falciparum, two non–observer-dependent models (accuracies = 85% and 89%) were developed. These models could be used by health personnel or be integrated as a malaria alarm for the XE-2100 to prompt early malaria microscopic diagnosis. PMID:20207864

  2. Estuary 2100 Project, Phase 2: Building Partnerships for Resilient Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about the SFBWQP Estuary 2100 Project, Phase 2: Building Partnerships for Resilient Watersheds, part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquat

  3. 21 CFR 520.2100 - Selenium, vitamin E capsules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Selenium, vitamin E capsules. 520.2100 Section 520... to 1 milligram of selenium) and 56.2 milligrams of vitamin E (68 I.U.) (as d-alpha tocopheryl acid... of vitamin E (17 I.U.) (as d-alpha tocopheryl acid succinate.) (b) Sponsor. See No. 000061 in § 510...

  4. NGDC/WDS Global Historical Tsunami Database, 2100 BC to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...

  5. Highlights in radiation measuring technique's - Serial Micro Channel SMC 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandler, M.; Hoffmann, Ch.

    2002-01-01

    The Serial Micro Channel SMC 2100 offers an ''intelligent stand alone'' electronics for the radiation measuring technique's. First it is designed of being connected to a serial interface RS232 of a PC. With a RS485 serial interface on a PC, a network structure can be generated. It has all functional modules which are necessary for the measurement of detector signals. Hence it is possible to directly connect any detector for radiation measurement to a PC, laptop, or notebook. All variations can be operated without PC support too. It has a modular structure and consists of two blocks, the functional modules and the basic modules. The Serial Micro Channel SMC 2100 may be directly coupled to a detector, which therefore makes the realisation of an ''intelligent radiation detector'' with serial link RS232 or RS485. (orig.)

  6. Projected changes in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land-use change, 1990-2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaehle, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.; Erhard, M.; Sitch, S.; Smith, P.C.; Zaehle, S.; Smith, P.C.; Carter, T.R.; Erhard, M.; Prentice, C.; Prentice, C.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Sitch, S.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M

    2007-01-01

    Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES story-lines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES story-line. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17-38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9-2.9% of the EU*s CO 2 emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4-10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100. (authors)

  7. Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Meleux, Frédérik; Rouïl, Laurence; Andersson, Camilla; Engardt, Magnuz; Langner, Joakim; Baklanov, Alexander; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H; Geels, Camilla; Hedegaard, Gitte B; Doherty, Ruth; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Katragkou, Eleni; Lei, Hang; Manders, Astrid; Melas, Dimitris; Sofiev, Mikhail; Soares, Joana

    2015-01-01

    Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (20712100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 20712100 time windows, respectively

  8. Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, Augustin; Andersson, Camilla; Baklanov, Alexander; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H.; Doherty, Ruth; Engardt, Magnuz; Geels, Camilla; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Hedegaard, Gitte B.; Katragkou, Eleni; Langner, Joakim; Lei, Hang; Manders, Astrid; Melas, Dimitris; Meleux, Frédérik; Rouïl, Laurence; Sofiev, Mikhail; Soares, Joana; Stevenson, David S.; Tombrou-Tzella, Maria; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Young, Paul

    2015-08-01

    Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

  9. The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; hide

    2016-01-01

    Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to

  10. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios

  11. Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

    2018-03-01

    Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

  12. Estuary 2100 Project, Phase 1: Resilient Watersheds for a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about the SFBWQP Estuary 2100 Project, Phase 1: Resilient Watersheds for a Changing Climate , part of an EPA competitive grant program to improve SF Bay water quality focused on restoring impaired waters and enhancing aquatic resources.

  13. Compact 2100 nm laser diode module for next-generation DIRCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvinelis, Edgaras; Greibus, Mindaugas; TrinkÅ«nas, Augustinas; NaujokaitÄ--, Greta; Vizbaras, Augustinas; Vizbaras, Dominykas; Vizbaras, Kristijonas

    2017-10-01

    Compact high-power 2100 nm laser diode module for next-generation directional infrared countermeasure (DIRCM) systems is presented. Next-generation DIRCM systems require compact, light-weight and robust laser modules which could provide intense IR light emission capable of disrupting the tracking sensor of heat-seeking missile. Currently used solid-state and fiber laser solutions for mid-IR band are bulky and heavy making them difficult to implement in smaller form-factor DIRCM systems. Recent development of GaSb laser diode technology greatly improved optical output powers and efficiencies of laser diodes working in 1900 - 2450 nm band [1] while also maintaining very attractive size, weight, power consumption and cost characteristics. 2100 nm laser diode module presented in this work performance is based on high-efficiency broad emitting area GaSb laser diode technology. Each laser diode emitter is able to provide 1 W of CW output optical power with working point efficiency up to 20% at temperature of 20 °C. For output beam collimation custom designed fast-axis collimator and slow-axis collimator lenses were used. These lenses were actively aligned and attached using UV epoxy curing. Total 2 emitters stacked vertically were used in 2100 nm laser diode module. Final optical output power of the module goes up to 2 W at temperature of 20 °C. Total dimensions of the laser diode module are 35 x 25 x 16 mm (L x W x H) with a weight of 28 grams. Finally output beam is bore-sighted to mechanical axes of the module housing allowing for easy integration into next-generation DIRCM systems.

  14. MULTIPLICITY, DISKS, AND JETS IN THE NGC 2071 STAR-FORMING REGION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carrasco-Gonzalez, Carlos [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Radioastronomie (MPIfR), Auf dem Huegel 69, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Osorio, Mayra; Anglada, Guillem; Gomez, Jose F. [Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, CSIC, Camino Bajo de Huetor 50, E-18008 Granada (Spain); D' Alessio, Paola; Rodriguez, Luis F. [Centro de Radioastronomia y Astrofisica UNAM, Apartado Postal 3-72 (Xangari), 58089 Morelia, Michoacan (Mexico); Torrelles, Jose M., E-mail: carrasco@mpifr-bonn.mpg.de [Instituto de Ciencias del Espacio (CSIC)-UB/IEEC, Universitat de Barcelona, Marti i Franques 1, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain)

    2012-02-10

    We present centimeter (cm) and millimeter (mm) observations of the NGC 2071 star-forming region performed with the Very Large Array (VLA) and Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA). We detected counterparts at 3.6 cm and 3 mm for the previously known sources IRS 1, IRS 2, IRS 3, and VLA 1. All these sources show spectral energy distributions (SEDs) dominated by free-free thermal emission at cm wavelengths and thermal dust emission at mm wavelengths, suggesting that all of them are associated with young stellar objects (YSOs). IRS 1 shows a complex morphology at 3.6 cm, with changes in the direction of its elongation. We discuss two possible explanations to this morphology: the result of changes in the direction of a jet due to interactions with a dense ambient medium, or that we are actually observing the superposition of two jets arising from two components of a binary system. Higher angular resolution observations at 1.3 cm support the second possibility, since a double source is inferred at this wavelength. IRS 3 shows a clear jet-like morphology at 3.6 cm. Over a timespan of four years, we observed changes in the morphology of this source that we interpret as due to ejection of ionized material in a jet. The emission at 3 mm of IRS 3 is angularly resolved, with a deconvolved size (FWHM) of {approx}120 AU, and seems to be tracing a dusty circumstellar disk perpendicular to the radio jet. An irradiated accretion disk model around an intermediate-mass YSO can account for the observed SED and spatial intensity profile at 3 mm, supporting this interpretation.

  15. MULTIPLICITY, DISKS, AND JETS IN THE NGC 2071 STAR-FORMING REGION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrasco-González, Carlos; Osorio, Mayra; Anglada, Guillem; Gómez, José F.; D'Alessio, Paola; Rodríguez, Luis F.; Torrelles, José M.

    2012-01-01

    We present centimeter (cm) and millimeter (mm) observations of the NGC 2071 star-forming region performed with the Very Large Array (VLA) and Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA). We detected counterparts at 3.6 cm and 3 mm for the previously known sources IRS 1, IRS 2, IRS 3, and VLA 1. All these sources show spectral energy distributions (SEDs) dominated by free-free thermal emission at cm wavelengths and thermal dust emission at mm wavelengths, suggesting that all of them are associated with young stellar objects (YSOs). IRS 1 shows a complex morphology at 3.6 cm, with changes in the direction of its elongation. We discuss two possible explanations to this morphology: the result of changes in the direction of a jet due to interactions with a dense ambient medium, or that we are actually observing the superposition of two jets arising from two components of a binary system. Higher angular resolution observations at 1.3 cm support the second possibility, since a double source is inferred at this wavelength. IRS 3 shows a clear jet-like morphology at 3.6 cm. Over a timespan of four years, we observed changes in the morphology of this source that we interpret as due to ejection of ionized material in a jet. The emission at 3 mm of IRS 3 is angularly resolved, with a deconvolved size (FWHM) of ∼120 AU, and seems to be tracing a dusty circumstellar disk perpendicular to the radio jet. An irradiated accretion disk model around an intermediate-mass YSO can account for the observed SED and spatial intensity profile at 3 mm, supporting this interpretation.

  16. Which energies for 2100?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobin, Jean-Louis; Deschamps, Lucien

    2013-01-01

    The authors propose a synthesis of works performed by the Prospective 2100 association on the issue of energy. They comment the strongly increasing energy demand which is related to demographic growth and urbanization, the evolution of energy supply at an always increasing cost, and the needed evolution of the energy mix. They notice that electricity demand increases faster than the global energy demand. They discuss the evolution of solar and wind energy (challenge of energy storage), the development of the industrial sector of electricity production and distribution, and the impacts of political choices on energy sectors. They discuss the possible evolutions of the energy sector which are based either on the improvements of existing technologies, or on the emergence of new technologies on the market. They outline the various environmental, economic and geopolitical constraints, state that they expect a great energy transition during the 21. century, discuss the objectives defined for 2050 in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and draw perspectives for the second half of the century

  17. Climate projections in the Hornsund area, Southern Spitsbergen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osuch Marzena

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to provide an estimation of climate variability in the Hornsund area in Southern Spitsbergen in the period 1976-2100. The climatic variables were obtained from the Polar-CORDEX initiative in the form of time series of daily air temperature and precipitation derived from four global circulation models (GCMs following representative concentration pathways (RCP RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In the first stage of the analysis, simulations for the reference period from 1979 to 2005 were compared with observations at the Polish Polar Station Hornsund from the same period of time. In the second step, climatic projections were derived and monthly and annual means/sums were analysed as climatic indices. Following the standard methods of trend analysis, the changes of these indices over three time periods - the reference period 1976-2005, the near-future period 2021-2050, and far-future period 2071-2100 - were examined. The projections of air temperature were consistent. All analysed climate models simulated an increase of air temperature with time. Analyses of changes at a monthly scale indicated that the largest increases were estimated for winter months (more than 11°C for the far future using the RCP 8.5 scenario. The analyses of monthly and annual sums of precipitation also indicated increasing tendencies for changes with time, with the differences between mean monthly sums of precipitation for the near future and the reference period similar for each months. In the case of changes between far future and reference periods, the highest increases were projected for the winter months.

  18. Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

    2015-09-01

    Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

  19. Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

    2015-01-01

    Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (20712100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

  20. A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schittek, Karsten; Kock, Sebastian T.; Lücke, Andreas; Hense, Jonathan; Ohlendorf, Christian; Kulemeyer, Julio J.; Lupo, Liliana C.; Schäbitz, Frank

    2016-05-01

    High-altitude cushion peatlands are versatile archives for high-resolution palaeoenvironmental studies, due to their high accumulation rates, range of proxies, and sensitivity to climatic and/or human-induced changes. Especially within the Central Andes, the knowledge about climate conditions during the Holocene is limited. In this study, we present the environmental and climatic history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland (CTP), located in the dry Puna of NW Argentina, based on a multi-proxy approach. X-ray fluorescence (XRF), stable isotope and element content analyses (δ13C, δ15N, TN and TOC) were conducted to analyse the inorganic geochemistry throughout the sequence, revealing changes in the peatlands' past redox conditions. Pollen assemblages give an insight into substantial environmental changes on a regional scale. The palaeoclimate varied significantly during the last 2100 years. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that in situ moisture changes were coupled to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). A period of sustained dry conditions prevailed from around 150 BC to around AD 150. A more humid phase dominated between AD 200 and AD 550. Afterwards, the climate was characterised by changes between drier and wetter conditions, with droughts at around AD 650-800 and AD 1000-1100. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century (1815 Tambora eruption) seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes. In the past, the peatland recovered from climatic perturbations. Today, CTP is heavily degraded by human interventions, and the peat deposit is becoming increasingly susceptible to erosion and incision.

  1. Super long-term scenario of world nuclear power generation and uranium supply and demand until 2030 and further 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Kakinoki, Tatsuro

    2007-01-01

    Based on latest nuclear policy and development trend in each country in the world, quantity of nuclear power generation and the uranium supply and demand until 2030 and further 2100 were predicted. As a result, the introduction of nuclear power stations spreads around Asia until 2030. The limitation on the uranium resources clearly does not exist until 2030, but a development period of around 10 years is necessary for exploitation of uranium resources. If timely development investment does not advance, it may invite shortage of uranium supply and promote a remarkable rise of uranium supply price. If the reinforcement of the anti-global warming measure and the diversification of the energy source advance at the super long-term time span called 2100, the world coal power largely decreases and the introduction of the nuclear power enlarges steadily. Introduction of the light water reactor (LWR) extends until 2080 since the fuel uses uranium resources of about 70 year ratio of reserves to production, but quantity of LWR power stations and power generation changes for the decrease due to the limitation of uranium resources after it. On the other hand, sustained expansion of the plutonium utilization by the fuel cycle technology and the introduction of the fast breeder reactor (FBR) advance after 2050. Then the sustained expansion of nuclear power is surely expected to occupy the first share of power generation in 2100. On this account it is necessary to push forward the plutonium use, backend technology and FBR development globally, and Japan is expected to carry a positive role to lead international nuclear energy technology development as a nuclear energy developed nation. (T. Tanaka)

  2. Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

  3. Soil-Water Storage Predictions for Cultivated Crops on the Záhorská Lowlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarabicová Miroslava

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the soil-water regime of the Záhorská lowlands. The consequences of climate change on soil-water storage were analyzed for two crops: spring barley and maize. We analyzed the consequences of climate change on soil-water storage for two crops: spring barley and maize. The soil-water storage was simulated with the GLOBAL mathematical model. The data entered into the model as upper boundary conditions were established by the SRES A2 and SRES B1 climate scenarios and the KNMI regional climate model for the years from 2071 to 2100 (in the text called the time horizon 2085 which is in the middle this period. For the reference period the data from the years 1961-1990 was used. The results of this paper predict soil-water storage until the end of this century for the crops evaluated, as well as a comparison of the soil-water storage predictions with the course of the soil-water storage during the reference period.

  4. The influence of L-opsin gene polymorphisms and neural ageing on spatio-chromatic contrast sensitivity in 20-71 year olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dees, Elise W; Gilson, Stuart J; Neitz, Maureen; Baraas, Rigmor C

    2015-11-01

    Chromatic contrast sensitivity may be a more sensitive measure of an individual's visual function than achromatic contrast sensitivity. Here, the first aim was to quantify individual- and age-related variations in chromatic contrast sensitivity to a range of spatial frequencies for stimuli along two complementary directions in color space. The second aim was to examine whether polymorphisms at specific amino acid residues of the L- and M-opsin genes (OPN1LW and OPN1MW) known to affect spectral tuning of the photoreceptors could influence spatio-chromatic contrast sensitivity. Chromatic contrast sensitivity functions were measured in 50 healthy individuals (20-71 years) employing a novel pseudo-isochromatic grating stimulus. The spatio-chromatic contrast sensitivity functions were found to be low pass for all subjects, independent of age and color vision. The results revealed a senescent decline in spatio-chromatic contrast sensitivity. There were considerable between-individual differences in sensitivity within each age decade for individuals 49 years old or younger, and age did not predict sensitivity for these age decades alone. Forty-six subjects (including a color deficient male and eight female carriers) were genotyped for L- and M-opsin genes. The Ser180Ala polymorphisms on the L-opsin gene were found to influence the subject's color discrimination and their sensitivity to spatio-chromatic patterns. The results expose the significant role of neural and genetic factors in the deterioration of visual function with increasing age. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Soussana, Jean-Fran?ois; Klumpp, Katja; Sultan, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Background Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071?2100 is predicted to be 1?5.5??C higher than that for 1971?2000. Climate change and elevated CO2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and liv...

  6. The global change challenge: a regional perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available with resolution about 210 km Climate Modelling at the CSIR NRE ? NWP and RCM capacity build around the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) of the CSIRO ? A cube-based global model; semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit solution of the primitive equations... to impact on crop yield, livestock, biodiversity and energy demand ? CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za RCM ens-ave projected change in annual rainfall (%) for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 Southern Africa projected to become generally drier...

  7. Lignite and hard coal: Energy suppliers for world needs until the year 2100 - An outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thielemann, Thomas; Schmidt, Sandro; Peter Gerling, J.

    2007-01-01

    For three years, international hard coal prices have been at rather expensive levels. Some argue that these higher prices might indicate the threat of a physical scarcity of fossil fuels - similar to the situation with oil and gas. This is not true. The supply situations with lignite and hard coal appear to be largely not critical. Adjusted to the rise in global coal consumption, which is expected until 2100, nature by and large can meet the world's coal demand. This is shown for lignite in this article and it is illustrated for hard coal here, differentiated in space and time for a world divided into eight regions and viewed for the years 2005, 2020, 2030, 2050, and 2100. The only area of potential concern is Asia (especially China). But today's and coming eager efforts in China to convert coal resources into reserves will most likely deliver the coal needed for the Chinese market. Up to the year 2100, and from a geoscientific point of view, there will be no bottleneck in coal supplies on this planet. (author)

  8. Performance evaluation of the Sysmex® XE-2100D automated hematology analyzer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tavany Elisa Santos Maciel

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Sysmex® XE-2100D is a multiparameter hematology analyzer designed for hematology testing in samples with ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA. Objectives: Considering the importance of this hematology analyzer for clinical and laboratory practice, the objective of this study was to evaluate its analytical performance, comparing the obtained results with quality specifications described in literature. Material and method: In the evaluation of analytical performance, according to recommendations of the document H26-A2 of the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI, intra-run imprecision, inter-run imprecision, linearity, carryover, autosampler evaluation, clinical sensitivity of the atypical lymphocytes flag (n = 400 samples were included, as well as the comparison between automated and manual leukocyte differential count (n = 400 samples, based on an adaptation of the document H20-A2 of CLSI. Results: Repeatability, reproducibility, linearity and carryover were satisfactory according to the manufacturer's specifications. The clinical sensitivity of the atypical lymphocytes flag showed efficiency, sensitivity and specificity of 92.5%, 65.2% and 94.1% respectively. The correlation coefficients between the automated and manual differential counts of neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils and basophils were 0.991, 0.99, 0.872, 0.974 and 0.557, respectively. Conclusions: The results were in accordance with quality specifications described in literature, indicating reliability in Sysmex® XE-2100D. This fact ensures certainty to both laboratory professionals and medical staff. We conclude that the Sysmex® XE-2100D showed excellent analytical performance, and is useful to provide reliable hematology data.

  9. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  10. The farming system sensibility of the Normandy in connection with the Climatic Change (2000-2100)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Gouée, Patrick; Cantat, Olivier; Bensaïd, Abdelkrim; Savouret, Edwige

    2010-05-01

    The French agricultural economy is closely connected with weather-climatic conditions. For example, dryness caused by the heat-wave of 2003 seriously affected the vegetation leading to a significant slowdown of photosynthetic activity. This resulted in logical decrease of agricultural production, in particular for arable lands and fodders. The Global warming that has begun at the end of the 19th century and seems to continue and even intensify during the 21st century (GIEC, 2007) arises a question of farming system sensibility when faced with Climate Change in the future. In France, recent studies (Cloppet and al, 2009) have conducted to the probable climate features spatialization on the national territory according to different scenarios. Whatever the scenario considered, it seems that the present Norman climate type is going to disappear by the end of century to be supplanted by a type of weather influenced by raising evapotranspiration, minimal and maximum temperatures as well as a raising speed of wind and solar radiation. Globally, this could emphasize agriculture soil dryness negative impact on large cereal land and pastures production (Butault, 2009, Ruget & Brisson, 2007). However, this climatic evolution could bring some production gain when the available water content of soils allows preventing or strongly limiting the hydrous stress emergence. For the current period and horizon 2100, according to the scenario A1B of the GIEC, the evaluation and the mapping with fine spatial resolution of this pedo-climatic indicator present a capital stake to appreciate the sensitivity of the agriculture of the Normandy in connection with the climatic evolution announced for the end of the 21st century. This exploratory work has been undertaken for the departmental territory of Calvados (5500 km²). For that purpose, it has been necessary beforehand to work out a precise mapping of soils on the basis of 7514 soil boreholes. The treatment of the soil database has allowed

  11. ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CARPATHIAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KIS ANNA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the major atmospheric source of surface water, thus, in order to build appropriate adaptation strategies for various economic sections related to water resources it is essential to provide projections for precipitation tendencies as exact as possible. Extreme precipitation events are especially important from this point of view since they may result in different environmental, economical, and/or even human health damages. Excessive precipitation for instance may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, lack of precipitation is not favorable either: long dry periods affect agricultural production quite negatively, and hence, food safety can be threatened. Several precipitation-related indices (i.e., describing drought or intensity, exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values are analyzed for the Carpathian region for 1961–2100. For this purpose 11 completed regional climate model simulations are used from the ENSEMBLES database. Before the thorough analysis, a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961–2010 served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021–2050 and 20712100 and for three subregions within the entire Carpathian region, namely, for Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase, especially, in winter and autumn.

  12. Net accumulation of the Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiilsholm, Sissi; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Dethloff, Klaus

    2003-01-01

    High-resolution (50 km) climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The experiments were forced at the lateral boundary by large-scale atmospheric conditions from transient climate change scenario simulations...... with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100) in the two scenarios. We find that due to a much better representation of the surface topography in the RCM, the geographical distribution of present-day accumulation rates simulated by the RCM represents a substantial...... improvement compared to the driving OAGCM. Estimates of the regional net balance are also better represented by the RCM. In the future climate the net balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet is reduced in all the simulation, but discrepancies between the amounts when based on ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HIRHAM are found...

  13. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  14. Guidance for Reviewing OCSPP 850.2100 Avian Oral Toxicity Studies Conducted with Passerine Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidance based on comparison of results from the TG223 validation studies to results from avian acute oral studies previously submitted to EPA for two test chemicals following EPA's 850.2100 (public draft) guidelines.

  15. WATER AVAILABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTUGAL FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SUBJECTED TO BIAS CORRECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Mourato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional climate models provided precipitation and temperature time series for control (1961–1990 and scenario (20712100 periods. At southern Portu gal, the climate models in the control period systematically present higher temp eratures and lower precipitation than the observations. Therefore, the direct inpu t of climate model data into hydrological models might result in more severe scenarios for future water availability. Three bias correction methods (Delta Change, Dire ct Forcing and Hybrid are analysed and their performances in water availability impac t studies are assessed. The Delta Change method assumes that the observed series variab ility is maintained in the scenario period and is corrected by the evolution predicted by the climate models. The Direct Forcing method maintains the scenario series variabi lity, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period, and the Hybrid method maintains the control model series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period and by the evolution predicted by the climate models. To assess the climate impacts in the water resources expected for the scenario period, a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN, is used for runoff pro jections in a southern Portugal basin. The annual and seasonal runoff shows a runoff d ecrease in the scenario period, increasing the water shor tage that is already experienc ed. The overall annual reduction varies between –80% and –35%. In general, the results show that the runoff reductions obtained with climate models corrected with the Delt a Change method are highest but with a narrow range that varies between –80% and –5 2%.

  16. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  17. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present......-day period (1961-1990) are compared to an observational data set, with precipitation corrected for undercatch and wetting losses, to quantify systematic model errors. A delta change method is applied to cope with these biases. A question arises as to how variable the climate change signals are...

  18. Effects of acute and chronic exposure to both 900 MHz and 2100 MHz electromagnetic radiation on glutamate receptor signaling pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gökçek-Saraç, Çiğdem; Er, Hakan; Kencebay Manas, Ceren; Kantar Gok, Deniz; Özen, Şükrü; Derin, Narin

    2017-09-01

    To demonstrate the molecular effects of acute and chronic exposure to both 900 and 2100 MHz radiofrequency electromagnetic radiation (RF-EMR) on the hippocampal level/activity of some of the enzymes - including PKA, CaMKIIα, CREB, and p44/42 MAPK - from N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR)-related signaling pathways. Rats were divided into the following groups: sham rats, and rats exposed to 900 and 2100 MHz RF-EMR for 2 h/day for acute (1 week) or chronic (10 weeks), respectively. Western blotting and activity measurement assays were used to assess the level/activity of the selected enzymes. The obtained results revealed that the hippocampal level/activity of selected enzymes was significantly higher in the chronic groups as compared to the acute groups at both 900 and 2100 MHz RF-EMR exposure. In addition, hippocampal level/activity of selected enzymes was significantly higher at 2100 MHz RF-EMR than 900 MHz RF-EMR in both acute and chronic groups. The present study provides experimental evidence that both exposure duration (1 week versus 10 weeks) and different carrier frequencies (900 vs. 2100 MHz) had different effects on the protein expression of hippocampus in Wistar rats, which might encourage further research on protection against RF-EMR exposure.

  19. The Elements of Water Balance in the Changing Climate in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Szwed

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Strong global warming has been observed in the last three decades. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Moreover, climate projections for Poland foresee further warming as well as changes in the spatial and seasonal distribution and quantity of precipitation. However, climate models do not agree on the sign of change of precipitation. In Poland precipitation is projected to decrease in summer (this finding is not robust, being model-dependent and to increase in winter. Therefore, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding likely climate change impacts on water resources in Poland. However, there is no doubt that changes in the thermal characteristics as well as in precipitation will influence changes in the water balance of the country. In this study, the components of climatic water balance, that is, precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, are calculated for the average conditions in the control period of 1961–1990 and in the future (20712100 in Poland. The changes of the water balance components for the present and for the future are compared and analysed. Due to insufficient consistency between climate models a possible range of changes should be presented; hence the multimodel projections from ENSEMBLES Project of the European Union are used in this study.

  20. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998...

  1. Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

  2. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    -proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  3. Cambios proyectados de los recursos hídricos bajo escenarios de emisiones RCP4.5 y 8.5 de modelos climáticos globales del CMIP5 en el Altiplano Peruano

    OpenAIRE

    Lujano Laura, Efrain; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología; Hidalgo Sanchez, Liz S.; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología; Tapia Aguilar, Bernardino; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología; Lujano Laura, Apolinario; Autoridad Nacional del Agua; Diaz Aguilar, Renny D.; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología

    2016-01-01

    La investigación, se realizó en el ámbito del altiplano Peruano, con el objetivo de evaluar los cambios en la disponibilidad del recurso hídrico bajo escenarios de emisiones de Modelos Climáticos Globales (MCG) del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados Fase 5 (CMIP5). La distribución espacio-temporal de la precipitación, se tomó como referencia la climatología 1971 – 2000 y sus proyecciones para el horizonte 20712100, así mismo para la simulación de caudales se utilizó el model...

  4. EVALUACION DE LA DISPONIBILIDAD HÍDRICA ACTUAL Y FUTURA EN EL CONTEXTO DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO EN LAS CUENCAS ILAVE Y RAMIS

    OpenAIRE

    LUJANO LAURA, EFRAIN; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología; DIAZ AGUILAR, RENNY DANIEL; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología; LUJANO LAURA, APLORINARIO; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología; QUISPE ARAGON, JOSE PITAGORAS; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología

    2015-01-01

    La investigación, se realizó en la región hidrográfica del Titicaca (lado peruano), cuyo objetivo fue evaluar la disponibilidad hídrica actual y futura en el contexto del cambio climático, donde se analiza la distribución temporal de la precipitación simulada en el Centro Hadley del Reino Unido con una base climática de 1961 – 1990 y con proyecciones para el horizonte 20712100. Para el modelamiento de caudales, se utilizó el modelo hidrológico mensual de 2 parámetros, cuyas evaluaciones es...

  5. Carbon budget of Ontario's managed forests and harvested wood products, 2001–2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiaxin Chen; Stephen J. Colombo; Michael T. Ter-Mikaelian; Linda S. Heath

    2010-01-01

    Forest and harvested wood products (HWP) carbon (C) stocks between 2001 and 2100 for Ontario's managed forests were projected using FORCARB-ON, an adaptation of the U.S. national forest C budget model known as FORCARB2. A fire disturbance module was introduced to FORCARB-ON to simulate the effects of wildfire on C, and some of the model's C pools were re-...

  6. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2006-12-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the

  7. Intensification of Climate-Carbon Feedbacks after 2100 and Implications for Disturbance Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.; Moore, J. K.; Doney, S. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Bonan, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term ecosystem and carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (and its extension). In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical models were exposed to the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. In one simulation, atmospheric CO2 and other forcing agents were radiatively active (fully coupled), modifying temperature and other aspects of climate. In another, CO2 was radiatively uncoupled, and in the third, both CO2 and other atmospheric forcing agents (including CH4, N2O, and aerosols) were radiatively uncoupled. In the fully coupled simulation, global mean air temperatures increased by 9.3°C from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4°C of this warming occurring after 2100. Without radiative forcing from CO2, cumulative warming was much lower at 2.4°C, but exceeding 2°C targets needed to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. In response to climate change, ocean and land rates of carbon uptake were reduced, with the size of the impact increasing over time. In the oceans, reductions in cumulative carbon uptake from climate change increased from 3% during the 20th century to 40% during the 23rd century. By 2300, climate change had reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Most of this reduction occurred after 2100 as a consequence of increases in surface stratification and decreases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change inducing a cumulative loss of 230 Pg C by 2300. On land the intensification of the hydrological cycle globally increased terrestrial water storage, although asymmetric responses were observed across different continents in the tropics. Net

  8. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 20712100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  9. Effects of exposure to 2100 MHz GSM-like radiofrequency electromagnetic field on auditory system of rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metin Çeliker

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: The use of mobile phones has become widespread in recent years. Although beneficial from the communication viewpoint, the electromagnetic fields generated by mobile phones may cause unwanted biological changes in the human body. Objective: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of 2100 MHz Global System for Mobile communication (GSM-like electromagnetic field, generated by an electromagnetic fields generator, on the auditory system of rats by using electrophysiological, histopathologic and immunohistochemical methods. Methods: Fourteen adult Wistar albino rats were included in the study. The rats were divided randomly into two groups of seven rats each. The study group was exposed continuously for 30 days to a 2100 MHz electromagnetic fields with a signal level (power of 5.4 dBm (3.47 mW to simulate the talk mode on a mobile phone. The control group was not exposed to the aforementioned electromagnetic fields. After 30 days, the Auditory Brainstem Responses of both groups were recorded and the rats were sacrificed. The cochlear nuclei were evaluated by histopathologic and immunohistochemical methods. Results: The Auditory Brainstem Responses records of the two groups did not differ significantly. The histopathologic analysis showed increased degeneration signs in the study group (p = 0.007. In addition, immunohistochemical analysis revealed increased apoptotic index in the study group compared to that in the control group (p = 0.002. Conclusion: The results support that long-term exposure to a GSM-like 2100 MHz electromagnetic fields causes an increase in neuronal degeneration and apoptosis in the auditory system.

  10. Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

  11. Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juknys, Romualdas; Velička, Rimantas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Kriaučiūnienė, Zita; Masilionytė, Laura; Vagusevičienė, Ilona; Pupalienė, Rita; Klepeckas, Martynas; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

    2017-10-01

    Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.

  12. Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

    2009-12-01

    In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and

  13. Studying the induced radioactivity of a varian clinac 2100C/D accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Feng; Li Hailiang; Deng Daping; Shang Yunying; Jing Zhongjun

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To Study the influences of dose, time, distance and irradiation mode on induced radioactivity by measuring a Varian Clinac 2100C/D accelerator. Methods: The induced radioactivity was measured in different dose, time, distance and irradiation mode by using of 450P model dosemeter. The results was analysed. Results: The induced radioactivity is direct ratio with dose, inverse ratio with time and distance. In different irradiation mode, the induced radioactivity is different. Conclusion: The induced radioactivity level of accelerator is related with dose, time, distance and irradiation mode. (authors)

  14. Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

  15. Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying theregional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (20712100 case studies have beenanalyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area and completedeforestation (forests replaced by grasslands of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence ofthe potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulationresults indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through coolerand moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate changemitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit wascalculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. Thestrongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here,half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughtscould be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climatecompared to the maximal afforestation scenario.

  16. Study on The Extended Range Weather Forecast of Low Frequency Signal Based on Period Analysis Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.

    2016-12-01

    Although many studies have explored the MJO and its application for weather forecasting, low-frequency oscillation has been insufficiently studied for the extend range weather forecasting over middle and high latitudes. In China, low-frequency synoptic map is a useful tool for meteorological operation department to forecast extend range weather. It is therefore necessary to develop objective methods to serve the need for finding low-frequency signal, interpretation and application of this signal in the extend range weather forecasting. In this paper, method of Butterworth band pass filter was applied to get low-frequency height field at 500hPa from 1980 to 2014 by using NCEP/NCAR daily grid data. Then period analysis and optimal subset regression methods were used to process the low frequency data of 150 days before the first forecast day and extend the low frequency signal of 500hPa low-frequency high field to future 30 days in the global from June to August during 2011-2014. Finally, the results were test. The main results are as follows: (1) In general, the fitting effect of low frequency signals of 500hPa low-frequency height field by period analysis in the northern hemisphere was better than that in the southern hemisphere, and was better in the low latitudes than that in the high latitudes. The fitting accuracy gradually reduced with the increase of forecast time length, which tended to be stable during the late forecasting period. (2) The fitting effects over the 6 key regions in China showed that except filtering result over Xinjiang area in the first 10 days and 30 days, filtering results over the other 5 key regions throughout the whole period have passed reliability test with level more than 95%. (3) The center and scope of low and high low frequency systems can be fitted well by using the methods mentioned above, which is consist with the corresponding use of the low-frequency synoptic map for the prediction of the extended period. Application of the

  17. The 2100MHz radiofrequency radiation of a 3G-mobile phone and the DNA oxidative damage in brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Duygu; Ozgur, Elcin; Guler, Goknur; Tomruk, Arın; Unlu, Ilhan; Sepici-Dinçel, Aylin; Seyhan, Nesrin

    2016-09-01

    We aimed to evaluate the effect of 2100MHz radiofrequency radiation emitted by a generator, simulating a 3G-mobile phone on the brain of rats during 10 and 40 days of exposure. The female rats were randomly divided into four groups. Group I; exposed to 3G modulated 2100MHz RFR signal for 6h/day, 5 consecutive days/wk for 2 weeks, group II; control 10 days, were kept in an inactive exposure set-up for 6h/day, 5 consecutive days/wk for 2 weeks, group III; exposed to 3G modulated 2100MHz RFR signal for 6h/day, 5 consecutive days/wk for 8 weeks and group IV; control 40 days, were kept in an inactive exposure set-up for 6h/day, 5 consecutive days/wk for 8 weeks. After the genomic DNA content of brain was extracted, oxidative DNA damage (8-hydroxy-2'deoxyguanosine, pg/mL) and malondialdehyde (MDA, nmoL/g tissue) levels were determined. Our main finding was the increased oxidative DNA damage to brain after 10 days of exposure with the decreased oxidative DNA damage following 40 days of exposure compared to their control groups. Besides decreased lipid peroxidation end product, MDA, was observed after 40 days of exposure. The measured decreased quantities of damage during the 40 days of exposure could be the means of adapted and increased DNA repair mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Pervasive Mobile and Ambient Wireless Communications COST Action 2100

    CERN Document Server

    Zanella, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    Pervasive Mobile and Ambient Wireless Communications reports the findings of COST 2100, a project of the European intergovernmental COST framework addressing various topics currently emerging in mobile and wireless communications. Drawing on experience developed in this and earlier COST projects, the text represents the final outcome of collaborative work involving more than 500 researchers in 140 institutions and 30 countries (including outside Europe). The book’s subject matter includes: • transmission techniques; • signal processing; • radio channel modelling and measurement; • radio network issues; and • recent paradigms including ultra-wideband, cooperative, vehicle-to-vehicle and body communications. The research reported comes from a variety of backgrounds: academic, equipment-manufacturing and operational. The information contained in this book will bring the study reported to a wider audience from all those spheres of work. Pervasive Mobile and Ambient Wireless Communications will be of i...

  19. Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanzer, Florian; Förster, Kristian; Nemec, Johanna; Strasser, Ulrich

    2018-03-01

    A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

  20. Heritability of spinal pain and consequences of spinal pain: a comprehensive genetic epidemiologic analysis using a population-based sample of 15,328 twins ages 20-71 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Nielsen, Jan; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm

    2009-01-01

    on 15,328 twin individuals (44% monozygotic and 56% dizygotic) from complete twin pairs were included. Genetic susceptibility explained approximately 38% of lumbar pain, 32% of thoracic pain, and 39% of neck pain. For patterns of pain, estimates were 7% for lumbar/thoracic, 24% for lumbar/cervical, 0......% for thoracic/cervical, and 35% for pain in all 3 areas. Moderate to high genetic correlations indicated a common genetic basis for many spinal pain syndromes. In general, heritability was higher for women, and only a minor age effect was seen. CONCLUSION: Heritability estimates for pain in different spinal......OBJECTIVE: To assess the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to different definitions of spinal pain and consequences of spinal pain. METHODS: The Danish Twin Registry contains detailed survey information on spinal pain and its consequences in twins ages 20-71 years...

  1. Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Déqué, Michel; Jones, R. G.; Wild, M.

    2005-01-01

    the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly......, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs - in particular in terms of precipitation - is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes...... errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs....

  2. Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of Chilean droughts (25°S-56°S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35°. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a 30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium and long-term scenarios (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground observations. Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the region is likely to exacerbate the severity and

  3. Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

    2016-07-05

    Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

  4. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

  5. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    1993. We calculated production capacity on the basis of age and height; we then compared these to past climate conditions to discover connections between climate, site conditions, and production. We estimated future growth tendencies for three different time periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100). Results show that the most vulnerable region is the south-western part of Hungary where the projected production capacity may decrease by 26% for the time period 2071-2100. The impacts of climate change may be milder in the north-eastern part of Hungary where a 19% decrease in the production capacity of sessile oak forests is estimated. These investigations and results are important for sustainable forest management and help define climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Keywords: climate change impacts, distribution modelling, production capacity Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-3-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities and the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

  6. Dispersion of the intrinsic neuronal periods affects the relationship of the entrainment range to the coupling strength in the suprachiasmatic nucleus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie; Wang, Man

    2017-11-01

    Living beings on the Earth are subjected to and entrained (synchronized) to the natural 24-h light-dark cycle. Interestingly, they can also be entrained to an external artificial cycle of non-24-h periods. The range of these periods is called the entrainment range and it differs among species. In mammals, the entrainment range is regulated by a main clock located in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) which is composed of 10 000 neurons in the brain. Previous works have found that the entrainment range depends on the cellular coupling strength in the SCN. In particular, the entrainment range decreases with the increase of the cellular coupling strength, provided that all the neuronal oscillators are identical. However, the SCN neurons differ in the intrinsic periods that follow a normal distribution in a range from 22 to 28 h. In the present study, taking the dispersion of the intrinsic neuronal periods into account, we examined the relationship between the entrainment range and the coupling strength. Results from numerical simulations and theoretical analyses both show that the relationship is altered to be paraboliclike if the intrinsic neuronal periods are nonidentical, and the maximal entrainment range is obtained with a suitable coupling strength. Our results shed light on the role of the cellular coupling in the entrainment ability of the SCN network.

  7. Ulysses charged particle measurements between 1 and 5 AU from the sun.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, D E; Smith, E J; Wenzel, K P

    1994-10-01

    Proton fluxes obtained by two instruments carried on the ESA/NASA Ulysses spacecraft are reported for the period from launch in October 1990 till Jupiter encounter in February 1992. Proton energy ranges are 24-59, 71-99, 130-320, 320-2100 and > 2100 MeV. The Sun was very active during this period, the events of March 1991 being some of the largest of the solar cycle. The relationship between events on the Sun and the observed proton flux is discussed.

  8. Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Chunlei; Allan, Richard P

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K −1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K −1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming. (letter)

  9. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

  10. The effect of 2100 MHz radiofrequency radiation of a 3G mobile phone on the parotid gland of rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydogan, Filiz; Unlu, Ilhan; Aydin, Emine; Yumusak, Nihat; Devrim, Erdinc; Samim, Ethem Erdal; Ozgur, Elcin; Unsal, Velid; Tomruk, Arin; Ozturk, Goknur Guler; Seyhan, Nesrin

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to evaluate the effect of 2100 MHz radiofrequency radiation on the parotid gland of rats in short and relatively long terms. Thirty Wistar albino rats were divided into four groups. Groups A and B served as the control groups (for 10 days and 40 days, respectively), and each group included six rats. Groups C and D were composed of nine rats each, and they were the exposure groups. The rats were exposed to 2100 MHz radiofrequency radiation emitted by a generator, simulating a third generation mobile phone for 6 hours/day, 5 days/week, for 10 or 40 days. Following exposure, the rats were sacrificed and parotid glands were removed. Histopathological and biochemical examinations were performed. Although there were no histopathological changes in the control groups except for two animals in group A and three animals in group B, the exposure groups C (10 days) and D (40 days) showed numerous histopathological changes regarding salivary gland damage including acinar epithelial cells, interstitial space, ductal system, vascular system, nucleus, amount of cytoplasm and variations in cell size. The histopathological changes were more prominent in group D compared to group C. There was statistically significant different parameter regarding variation in cell size between the groups B and D (p=0.036). The parotid gland of rats showed numerous histopathological changes after exposure to 2100 MHz radiofrequency radiation, both in the short and relatively long terms. Increased exposure duration led to an increase in the histopathological changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Sleep well until 2100 - And other misunderstandings on climate and energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jancovici, Jean-Marc

    2015-01-01

    As energy resources are said to be the sinews not only of the war but also of the economics and of environment protection, their crucial importance has led the author to explain in this book the energy face of each of these major issues: economic growth and energy demand; economic growth and higher education; the issue of global warming and the objective of a 2 deg C maximum in 2100; the real potential (and cost) of solar and wind power; the German energy (wrong) policy example; is coal really something of the past?; an ever growing production of carbon dioxide; being an environment-friend and a pro-nuclear at the same time; is the debt crisis the banks' fault?; oil and extreme-right are in the same boat...; the green growth miracle, etc

  12. Characteristic For Electron Beam Of A Clinac 2100 Linear Accelerator Machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sri-Inang S; Nurman; Dani

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the measurement of some dosimetric parameters for 6, 9, 12, 16 and 20 MeV electron beam of a CLINAC 2100 linear accelerator machine. The measurement were performed using Wellhofer dosimeter system at focus surface distance of 100 cm and a field size of 15 cm x 15 cm at the water phantom. The dosimetric parameter were automatically calculated from each scan. The result obtained show that the value of the depth of maximum ionization were at 1.30, 2.00, 2.66, 2.45 and 1.76 cm each for 6, 9, 12, 16 and 20 MeV nominal energy. The beam flatness varies between 0.86 to 3.68%, the beam symmetry between 0.0 to 1.55% and the penumbra between 7.4 mm to 12.4 mm. (author)

  13. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  14. Projecting of wave height and water level on reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongo, Chuki; Kurihara, Haruko; Golbuu, Yimnang

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) and sea level rise (SLR) cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater, reducing the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change in the risk to coastal reefs under conditions of intensified TCs and SLR are poorly quantified. In this study we projected the wave height and water level on Melekeok reef in the Palau Islands by 2100, based on wave simulations under intensified TCs (significant wave height at the outer ocean: SWHo = 8.7-11.0 m; significant wave period at the outer ocean: SWPo = 13-15 s) and SLR (0.24-0.98 m). To understand effects of upward reef growth on the reduction of the wave height and water level, the simulation was conducted for two reef condition scenarios: a degraded reef and a healthy reef. Moreover, analyses of reef growth based on a drilled core provided an assessment of the coral community and rate of reef production necessary to reduce the risk from TCs and SLR on the coastal areas. According to our calculations under intensified TCs and SLR by 2100, significant wave heights at the reef flat (SWHr) will increase from 1.05-1.24 m at present to 2.14 m if reefs are degraded. Similarly, by 2100 the water level at the shoreline (WLs) will increase from 0.86-2.10 m at present to 1.19-3.45 m if reefs are degraded. These predicted changes will probably cause beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure, because the coastal village is located at ˜ 3 m above the present mean sea level. These findings imply that even if the SWHr is decreased by only 0.1 m by upward reef growth, it will probably reduce the risks of costal damages. Our results showed that a healthy reef

  15. Carbon storage in Ontario's forests, 2000-2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, S.J.; Chen, J.; Ter-Mikaelian, M.T.

    2007-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges facing modern society is rapid climate change resulting from greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere, primarily in the form of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. The effects of climate change on natural environments will inevitably affect people as well, if left unchanged. In addition to many other societal benefits, forests store large amounts of carbon. As a result, it is necessary to understand how forest management and natural processes affect forest carbon storage. Such information can be utilized to manage forests so that they function as carbon sinks and help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This report employed data about Ontario's forest structure and information from the forest management planning process and past harvests to describe carbon in forests and wood products today and through to the end of this century. The paper described the methods used for the study which included modification of the United States national forest carbon model, FORCARB2, to predict Ontario's forest carbon budgets in order to make carbon projections congruent with forest management plans. The modified forest carbon model, which is called FORCARB-ON, predicts carbon in live trees, understory vegetation, forest floor, standing and down dead wood, and soil. Ontario's managed forests are projected to increase carbon storage by 433 million tonnes from 2000 to 2100. The largest forest sink will be in wood products, accounting for 364 million tonnes of carbon storage over the century. 22 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  16. Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

    2009-06-01

    In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

  17. Projection of Climate Change Based on Multi-Site Statistical Downscaling over Gilan area, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesta Afzali

    2017-01-01

    , precipitation occurrence and the other step precipitation amounts and the modeling of daily temperature is performed in one step. The choice of predictor variables is one of the most influential steps in the development of statistical downscaling scheme because the decision largely determines the character of the downscaling results. It is essential to remember that predictors relevant to the local predict and should be adequately reproduced by the host climate model at the spatial scales used to condition the downscaled response. To test this approach over the current period and to compare the results with observed data, temperature and precipitation, from 2 stations, model is evaluated and calibrated by using NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data before the use of GCMs as input variables. Then climate was predicted for three periods which each period consist of thirty years in the future, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. ASD reduces the problem of predictor selection and it is capable of performing all steps of statistical downscaling automatically. In order to select dominant predictors in multi-site modeling backward stepwise regression method was used; so that some predictors like 850 hPa geopotential, 850 hPa specific humidity, 1000 hPa specific humidity, screen air temperature (2m were the most important variables for temperature models, and 850 hPa geopotential, 1000 hPa zonal velocity, 1000 hpa specific humidity, and screen air temperature (2m played a main role in temperature modeling. For downscaling of precipitation, the amount of explained variance (R2 is 0.336 for NCEP data and it is 0.89, 0.922 and 0.855for maximum, mean and minimum temperature, respectively. The results underlined certain limitations to downscale the precipitation regime and its strength compared to downscale the temperature regime. To evaluate the performance of the multi-site statistical downscaling approach, several climatic and statistical indices were

  18. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  19. Import, use, and emissions of PCBs in Switzerland from 1930 to 2100.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliane Glüge

    Full Text Available Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs are persistent organic compounds that are ubiquitously found in the environment. Their use and manufacture were restricted or banned in many countries in the 1970-1980s, however, they still persist in the antroposphere, the environment and in biota worldwide today. Conventions like the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution encourage or bind the member parties to annually submit emission inventories of regulated air pollutants. Unfortunately, several member states have not yet reported PCB emissions. The identification and quantification of stocks and emissions sources is, however, an important precondition to handle and remove the remaining reservoirs of PCBs and, thus, to be able to reduce emissions and subsequently environmental exposure. Here, we estimate past, present, and future emissions of PCBs to air in Switzerland and provide emission factors for all relevant emission categories. Switzerland hereby represents a typical developed industrial country, and most of the assumptions and parameters presented here can be used to calculate PCB emission also for other countries. PCB emissions to air are calculated using a dynamic mass flow and emissions model for Switzerland, which is run for the years 1930-2100. The results point out the importance of the use of PCBs in open applications, which have largely been previously overlooked. Additionally, we show that PCBs will persist in applications during the coming decades with ongoing emissions. Especially the use of PCBs in open applications will cause Swiss emissions to remain above 100 kg PCB per year, even after the year 2030. Our developed model is available in Excel/VBA and can be downloaded with this article.

  20. Import, use, and emissions of PCBs in Switzerland from 1930 to 2100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glüge, Juliane; Steinlin, Christine; Schalles, Simone; Wegmann, Lukas; Tremp, Josef; Breivik, Knut; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Bogdal, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent organic compounds that are ubiquitously found in the environment. Their use and manufacture were restricted or banned in many countries in the 1970-1980s, however, they still persist in the antroposphere, the environment and in biota worldwide today. Conventions like the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution encourage or bind the member parties to annually submit emission inventories of regulated air pollutants. Unfortunately, several member states have not yet reported PCB emissions. The identification and quantification of stocks and emissions sources is, however, an important precondition to handle and remove the remaining reservoirs of PCBs and, thus, to be able to reduce emissions and subsequently environmental exposure. Here, we estimate past, present, and future emissions of PCBs to air in Switzerland and provide emission factors for all relevant emission categories. Switzerland hereby represents a typical developed industrial country, and most of the assumptions and parameters presented here can be used to calculate PCB emission also for other countries. PCB emissions to air are calculated using a dynamic mass flow and emissions model for Switzerland, which is run for the years 1930-2100. The results point out the importance of the use of PCBs in open applications, which have largely been previously overlooked. Additionally, we show that PCBs will persist in applications during the coming decades with ongoing emissions. Especially the use of PCBs in open applications will cause Swiss emissions to remain above 100 kg PCB per year, even after the year 2030. Our developed model is available in Excel/VBA and can be downloaded with this article.

  1. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Senent-Aparicio

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Segura River Basin is one of the most water-stressed basins in Mediterranean Europe. If we add to the actual situation that most climate change projections forecast important decreases in water resource availability in the Mediterranean region, the situation will become totally unsustainable. This study assessed the impact of climate change in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT with bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs for the medium term (2041–2070 and the long term (20712100 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bias correction was performed using the distribution mapping approach. The fuzzy TOPSIS technique was applied to rank a set of nine GCM–RCM combinations, choosing the climate models with a higher relative closeness. The study results show that the SWAT performed satisfactorily for both calibration (NSE = 0.80 and validation (NSE = 0.77 periods. Comparing the long-term and baseline (1971–2000 periods, precipitation showed a negative trend between 6% and 32%, whereas projected annual mean temperatures demonstrated an estimated increase of 1.5–3.3 °C. Water resources were estimated to experience a decrease of 2%–54%. These findings provide local water management authorities with very useful information in the face of climate change.

  2. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff and Sediment Processes in Agricultural Watersheds: A Case Study from the Sunflower Watershed in the Lower Mississippi Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Momm, H.; Yasarer, L.; Armour, G. L.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a major role in physical processes impacting soil and agrochemicals detachment and transportation from/in agricultural watersheds. In addition, these climatic conditions are projected to significantly vary spatially and temporally in the 21st century, leading to vast uncertainties about the future of sediment and non-point source pollution transport in agricultural watersheds. In this study, we selected the sunflower basin in the lower Mississippi River basin, USA to contribute in the understanding of how climate change affects watershed processes and the transport of pollutant loads. The climate projections used in this study were retrieved from the archive of World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) project. The CMIP5 dataset was selected because it contains the most up-to-date spatially downscaled and bias corrected climate projections. A subset of ten GCMs representing a range in projected climate were spatially downscaled for the sunflower watershed. Statistics derived from downscaled GCM output representing the 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods were used to generate maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation on a daily time step using the USDA Synthetic Weather Generator, SYNTOR. These downscaled climate data were then utilized as inputs to run in the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution watershed model to estimate time series of runoff, sediment, and nutrient loads produced from the watershed. For baseline conditions a validated simulation of the watershed was created and validated using historical data from 2000 until 2015.

  3. Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

    2018-05-01

    Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

  4. Fate of Glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau by 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, K.

    2017-12-01

    As the third polar on the Earth, the Tibetan plateau holds more than 40,000 glaciers which have experienced a rapid retreat in recent decades. The variability of equilibrium line altitude (ELA) indicates expansion and wastage of glacier directly. Here we simulated the ELA variability in the Tibetan Plateau based on a full surface energy and mass balance model. The simulation results are agreement with the observations. The ELAs have risen at a rate of 2-8m/a since 1970 throughout the Plateau, especially in the eastern Plateau where the ELAs have risen to or over the top altitude of glacier, indicating the glaciers are accelerating to melting over there. Two glaciers, XD glacier in the center of the Plateau and Qiyi glacier in the Qilian Mountain, are chosen to simulate its future ELA variability in the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 given by IPCC. The results show the ELAs will arrive to its maximum in around 2040 in RCP2.6, while the ELAs will be over the top altitude of glaciers in 2035-2045 in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggesting the glaciers in the eastern Plateau will be melting until the disappear of the glaciers by the end of 2100.

  5. Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria simulated using a physically based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hanzer

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l. as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2 and glacierization (24–77 %. Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l. until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006 ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040 with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006 of up to 11 % (total and 13 % (summer depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total and 47 % (summer towards the end of the century (20712100, accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

  6. Projecting of wave height and water level on reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hongo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs and sea level rise (SLR cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater, reducing the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change in the risk to coastal reefs under conditions of intensified TCs and SLR are poorly quantified. In this study we projected the wave height and water level on Melekeok reef in the Palau Islands by 2100, based on wave simulations under intensified TCs (significant wave height at the outer ocean: SWHo = 8.7–11.0 m; significant wave period at the outer ocean: SWPo = 13–15 s and SLR (0.24–0.98 m. To understand effects of upward reef growth on the reduction of the wave height and water level, the simulation was conducted for two reef condition scenarios: a degraded reef and a healthy reef. Moreover, analyses of reef growth based on a drilled core provided an assessment of the coral community and rate of reef production necessary to reduce the risk from TCs and SLR on the coastal areas. According to our calculations under intensified TCs and SLR by 2100, significant wave heights at the reef flat (SWHr will increase from 1.05–1.24 m at present to 2.14 m if reefs are degraded. Similarly, by 2100 the water level at the shoreline (WLs will increase from 0.86–2.10 m at present to 1.19–3.45 m if reefs are degraded. These predicted changes will probably cause beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure, because the coastal village is located at  ∼ 3 m above the present mean sea level. These findings imply that even if the SWHr is decreased by only 0.1 m by upward reef growth, it will probably reduce the risks of

  7. Multi-Wavelength Observations of Asteroid 2100 Ra-Shalom: Visible, Infrared, and Thermal Spectroscopy Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Beth Ellen; Shepard, M.; Bus, S. J.; Vilas, F.; Rivkin, A. S.; Lim, L.; Lederer, S.; Jarvis, K.; Shah, S.; McConnochie, T.

    2004-01-01

    The August 2003 apparition of asteroid 2100 Ra-Shalom brought together a collaboration of observers with the goal of obtaining rotationally resolved multiwavelength spectra at each of 5 facilities: infrared spectra at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (Clark and Shepard), radar images at Arecibo (Shepard and Clark), thermal infrared spectra at Palomar (Lim, McConnochie and Bell), visible spectra at McDonald Observatory (Vilas, Lederer and Jarvis), and visible lightcurves at Ondrojev Observatory (Pravec). The radar data was to be used to develop a high spatial resolution physical model to be used in conjunction with spectral data to investigate compositional and textural properties on the near surface of Ra Shalom as a function of rotation phase. This was the first coordinated multi-wavelength investigation of any Aten asteroid. There are many reasons to study near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 2100 Ra-Shalom: 1) It has a controversial classification (is it a C- or K-type object)? 2) There would be interesting dynamical ramifications if Ra-Shalom is a K-type because most K-types come from the Eos family and there are no known dynamical pathways from Eos to the Aten population. 3) The best available spectra obtained previously may indicate a heterogeneous surface (most asteroids appear to be fairly homogeneous). 4) Ra-Shalom thermal observations obtained previously indicated a lack of regolith, minimizing the worry of space weathering effects in the spectra. 5) Radar observations obtained previously hinted at interesting surface structures. 6) Ra-Shalom is one of the largest Aten objects. And 7) Ra-Shalom is on a short list of proposed NEAs for spacecraft encounters and possible sample returns. Preliminary results from the visible, infrared, and thermal spectroscopy measurements will be presented here.

  8. Weak and strong factorization properties in nucleus-nucleus collisions in the energy region 290-2100 MeV/nucleon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Tessa, C. . E-mail chiara@nephy.chalmers.se; Sihver, L.; Mancusi, D.; Zeitlin, C.; Miller, J.; Guetersloh, S.; Heilbronn, L.

    2007-01-01

    We have collected from the literature partial charge-changing cross sections for projectiles with charge 6=< Z=<26, energy ranging from 290 up to 2100 MeV/nucleon and interacting with several targets, in order to investigate weak and strong factorization properties. The same analysis methods as in our previous work have been applied to the data: we have shown that, except for hydrogen targets, weak and strong factorization properties are valid within 5%, thus confirming the results obtained in the first paper [C. La Tessa, et al., Test of weak and strong factorization in nucleus-nucleus collisions at several hundred MeV/nucleon, Nucl. Phys. A, in press]. Factorization parameters have been calculated and, in particular, target factors have been expressed with ad hoc analytical functions which describe the data trend very well. New expressions for weak and strong factorization properties can then be obtained by substituting the target factors with these functions: this formulation partially isolates the dependence of the partial charge-changing cross sections on the target and projectile mass numbers; moreover, fragment factors are the only parameters left in the formulas thus facilitating the future task of interpolating them with appropriate analytical expressions

  9. Program GICC, final report (March 2005), inventory of carbonaceous aerosol particles from 1860 to 2100 or which carbonaceous aerosol for a significant climatic regional/global impact?; Programme GICC, RAPPORT DEFINITIF (Mars 2005), inventaire d'emissions d'aerosol carbone de 1860 a 2100 ou quelles emissions d'aerosol carbone pour un impact climatique regional/global significatif?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cachier, H.; Guinot, B. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnment, UMR CEA/CNRS 1572 - CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Criqui, P.; Mima, S. [IEPE, 38 - Grenoble (France); Brignon, J.M. [INERIS, 60 - Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Penner, J. [Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Carmichael, G. [Iowa Univ., Iowa City, IA (United States); Gadi, R. [National Physical Lab., New Delhi (India); Denier Van der Gon, H. [TNO Hollande (Netherlands); Gregoire, J.M. [JRC, Ispra (Italy); Liousse, C.; Michel, C.; Guillaume, B.; Junker, C

    2007-07-01

    The aim of our program is to determine past, present and future emission inventories of carbonaceous particles from 1860 to 2100 for fossil fuel and biofuel sources. Emission inventories for savannah and forest fires have been developed by using burnt area products given by satellite for Asia and Africa. The strong collaboration with the different groups attending this GICC program has allowed to develop the following results. 1- With the improvement of algorithms and new choices for emission factors, emission inventories for black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OCp) and total organic carbon (OCtot) have been constructed for the period 1950 to 1997 for fossil fuel and biofuel sources. With these new development, biofuel sources have been seen to be significant, especially in the developing countries. 2- Past inventories have been developed for fossil fuel and biofuel sources from 1860 to 1997 by taking into account the evolution of fuel consumption, fuel use and emission factors. 3- Savannah and forest fire inventories have been constructed based on burnt area products, for Africa (1981-1991, 2000) and Asia (2000-2001). These results show the importance of using real time data instead of statistics. 4-Future emission inventory of black carbon by fossil fuel sources has been constructed for 2100 following the IPCC scenario A2 (catastrophic case) and B1 (perfect world). 5-Characterization of biofuel emissions has been realized by organizing an experiment in a combustion chamber where indian and chinese biofuels (fuelwood, agricultural wastes, dung-cake etc..). were burnt, reproducing the burning methods used in these countries. 6-Finally, the differences between the existing inventories of carbonaceous aerosols has been explained. (A.L.B.)

  10. Program GICC, final report (March 2005), inventory of carbonaceous aerosol particles from 1860 to 2100 or which carbonaceous aerosol for a significant climatic regional/global impact?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cachier, H.; Guinot, B.; Criqui, P.; Mima, S.; Brignon, J.M.; Penner, J.; Carmichael, G.; Gadi, R.; Denier Van der Gon, H.; Gregoire, J.M.; Liousse, C.; Michel, C.; Guillaume, B.; Junker, C.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of our program is to determine past, present and future emission inventories of carbonaceous particles from 1860 to 2100 for fossil fuel and biofuel sources. Emission inventories for savannah and forest fires have been developed by using burnt area products given by satellite for Asia and Africa. The strong collaboration with the different groups attending this GICC program has allowed to develop the following results. 1- With the improvement of algorithms and new choices for emission factors, emission inventories for black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OCp) and total organic carbon (OCtot) have been constructed for the period 1950 to 1997 for fossil fuel and biofuel sources. With these new development, biofuel sources have been seen to be significant, especially in the developing countries. 2- Past inventories have been developed for fossil fuel and biofuel sources from 1860 to 1997 by taking into account the evolution of fuel consumption, fuel use and emission factors. 3- Savannah and forest fire inventories have been constructed based on burnt area products, for Africa (1981-1991, 2000) and Asia (2000-2001). These results show the importance of using real time data instead of statistics. 4-Future emission inventory of black carbon by fossil fuel sources has been constructed for 2100 following the IPCC scenario A2 (catastrophic case) and B1 (perfect world). 5-Characterization of biofuel emissions has been realized by organizing an experiment in a combustion chamber where indian and chinese biofuels (fuelwood, agricultural wastes, dung-cake etc..). were burnt, reproducing the burning methods used in these countries. 6-Finally, the differences between the existing inventories of carbonaceous aerosols has been explained. (A.L.B.)

  11. Ventilation changes in the western North Pacific since the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Okazaki

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We reconstructed the ventilation record of deep water at 2100 m depth in the mid-latitude western North Pacific over the past 25 kyr from radiocarbon measurements of coexisting planktic and benthic foraminiferal shells in sediment with a high sedimentation rate. The 14C data on fragile and robust planktic foraminiferal shells were concordant with each other, ensuring high quality of the reconstructed ventilation record. The radiocarbon activity changes were consistent with the atmospheric record, suggesting that no massive mixing of old carbon from the abyssal reservoir occurred throughout the glacial to deglacial periods.

  12. Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażejczyk Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

  13. Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; T.S. Rupp; F.S. Chapin; J.E. Walsh

    2009-01-01

    In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003-2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1)...

  14. Investigation of integral normal emmissivity of materials in the high temperature range with the aid of reflection furnace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shpil'rain, Eh.Eh.; Peletskij, V.Eh.; Kostanovskij, A.V.

    1976-01-01

    A special experimental procedure for investigating integral radiation capacity of a wide class of solids with the aid of a reverberatory furnace ''URAN-1'' has been developed. The description of the set-up is presented. For the range of 1300-2100 K, data are provided on the integral normal radiation capacity of niobium. The investigation results are compared with the data published in the literature

  15. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  16. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  17. Labor productivity losses over western Turkey in the twenty-first century as a result of alteration in WBGT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altinsoy, Hamza; Yildirim, Haci Ahmet

    2015-04-01

    Occupational fatalities and work-related injuries are more common in Turkey than in most developing and developed countries. Several precautions have been taken concerning the matter, and The Occupational Health and Safety Act (OHSL 2012) has been passed. These efforts, however, have failed to incorporate in their framework the role of global warming. New legislation is underway for the prevention of occupational diseases, injuries, and fatalities. This is particularly worrisome given that Turkey is in the forefront of countries projected to be affected seriously by climate change. Consequently, a study on the direct and indirect impact of climate change on workers' health and labour productivity is paramount. The main purpose of this research is to present diminishing labour productivity as a consequence of decreased working hours via an estimate of rest hours of workers in manual labour. The climatic outputs of Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) obtained from the ENSEMBLES Project are used to calculate the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) over western Turkey. The study covers the span of years between 1971 and 2100. Moreover, spatial distributions of observed domain are estimated by means of a seasonal analysis, preliminary to a more detailed research. Critical regions, more adversely influenced than others, are identified. The total number of loss days for these critical regions are presented for various time periods. As a result, labour productivity particularly in agriculture and construction is expected to diminish seriously over Central Anatolia, Cyprus, and parts of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean coastal areas. Between 2071 and 2100, deficiency in labour productivity may reach up to 52% during the summer across some of these critical regions. Though it will be seen that the present study has focused primarily on manual labour and outdoor work in particular, it foreshadows nevertheless the dangerous impact of climate change on occupational health and

  18. Labor productivity losses over western Turkey in the twenty-first century as a result of alteration in WBGT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altinsoy, Hamza; Yildirim, Haci Ahmet

    2015-04-01

    Occupational fatalities and work-related injuries are more common in Turkey than in most developing and developed countries. Several precautions have been taken concerning the matter, and The Occupational Health and Safety Act (OHSL 2012) has been passed. These efforts, however, have failed to incorporate in their framework the role of global warming. New legislation is underway for the prevention of occupational diseases, injuries, and fatalities. This is particularly worrisome given that Turkey is in the forefront of countries projected to be affected seriously by climate change. Consequently, a study on the direct and indirect impact of climate change on workers' health and labour productivity is paramount. The main purpose of this research is to present diminishing labour productivity as a consequence of decreased working hours via an estimate of rest hours of workers in manual labour. The climatic outputs of Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) obtained from the ENSEMBLES Project are used to calculate the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) over western Turkey. The study covers the span of years between 1971 and 2100. Moreover, spatial distributions of observed domain are estimated by means of a seasonal analysis, preliminary to a more detailed research. Critical regions, more adversely influenced than others, are identified. The total number of loss days for these critical regions are presented for various time periods. As a result, labour productivity particularly in agriculture and construction is expected to diminish seriously over Central Anatolia, Cyprus, and parts of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean coastal areas. Between 2071 and 2100, deficiency in labour productivity may reach up to 52 % during the summer across some of these critical regions. Though it will be seen that the present study has focused primarily on manual labour and outdoor work in particular, it foreshadows nevertheless the dangerous impact of climate change on occupational health and

  19. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  20. Simulation of electron transport in GaAs/AlAs superlattices with a small number of periods for the THz frequency range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavelyev, D. G.; Vasilev, A. P.; Kozlov, V. A.; Koschurinov, Yu. I.; Obolenskaya, E. S.; Obolensky, S. V.; Ustinov, V. M.

    2016-01-01

    The electron transport in superlattices based on GaAs/AlAs heterostructures with a small number of periods (6 periods) is calculated by the Monte Carlo method. These superlattices are used in terahertz diodes for the frequency stabilization of quantum cascade lasers in the range up to 4.7 THz. The band structure of superlattices with different numbers of AlAs monolayers is considered and their current–voltage characteristics are calculated. The calculated current–voltage characteristics are compared with the experimental data. The possibility of the efficient application of these superlattices in the THz frequency range is established both theoretically and experimentally.

  1. Periodic long-range transport in a large volume dc glow discharge dusty plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Edward Jr.; Amatucci, William E.; Compton, Christopher; Christy, Brian; Jackson, Jon David

    2003-01-01

    In an earlier paper, the authors reported on observations of a variety of particle transport phenomena observed in DUPLEX--the DUsty PLasma EXperiment at the Naval Research Laboratory [E. Thomas, Jr., W. E. Amatucci, C. Compton, and B. Christy, Phys. Plasmas 9, 3154 (2002)]. DUPLEX is a large, transparent polycarbonate cylinder that is 40 cm in radius and 80 cm in height. dc glow discharge argon plasmas are generated in DUPLEX. In this paper, the authors expand upon one particular feature of particle transport in DUPLEX, the long-range (i.e., greater than 15 cm), periodic (T∼2.5 min) transport of suspended alumina particles through the plasma. A detailed description of this particle motion through the plasma is presented. Finally, a qualitative model describing the phenomena that lead to this transport is also given

  2. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study on the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Bellin, A.; Majone, B.; Bovolo, C. I.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2009-12-01

    Uncertainty in projections from climate models limits the understanding of future hydrological impacts and complicates the assessment of mitigation policies. This work presents hydrological simulations of the Ebro River Basin (Spain), using both control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climate scenarios, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the water availability of the basin. Using the SWAT model, hydrological simulations were carried out for four catchments with different climatological regimes. Sets of model parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, long-term calibration and uncertainty analysis procedures, which enabled the historical behaviour of the catchments to be reproduced. Following validation, the parameters were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflow. Bias-corrected daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), using the SRES A2 emissions scenario, were used as drivers of the hydrological simulations during the future scenarios. Important annual and seasonal differences in the projected future precipitation and temperature fields were observed among the RCMs. However, a general decrease in annual mean precipitation and an increase in annual mean temperature relative to the control period were observed, with the strongest differences during the summer season. When these changes were used to project future streamflows, a general decrease was observed at the outlet of the catchments. Changes in streamflows were in general agreement with the projections of daily precipitation and temperature fields, with a larger drop in predicted monthly streamflows for catchments with more semi-arid climatological regimes, and seasonal differences that are related to the elevation range of the catchments.

  3. Hypo- and hypernatremia results in inaccurate erythrocyte mean corpuscular volume measurement in vitro, when using Sysmex XE 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillipsen, Jens Peter; Madsen, Kirsten Vikkelsø

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Automated hematology analyzers dilute patient erythrocytes with an isoosmotic diluent before quantitating the erythrocyte mean cell volume (MCV). However, if patient plasma osmolality differs from the diluent, water will cross the erythrocytes membrane and establish a new equilibrium...... across the membrane. Since the new equilibrium is reached before the measurement of the MCV, the measured MCV may not reflect the true MCV in vivo. AIM: Calculation of the theoretical change in MCV at changed P-Sodium/P-Osmolality and to investigate if the automated blood cell counter Sysmex XE 2100...

  4. Reference ranges for hematocrit and blood hemoglobin concentration during the neonatal period: data from a multihospital health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jopling, Jeffery; Henry, Erick; Wiedmeier, Susan E; Christensen, Robert D

    2009-02-01

    "Reference ranges" are developed when it is impossible or inappropriate to establish "normal ranges" by drawing blood on healthy normal volunteers. Reference ranges for the hematocrit and the blood hemoglobin concentration of newborn infants have previously been reported from relatively small sample sizes by using measurement methods that now are considered outmoded. We sought to develop reference ranges for hematocrit and hemoglobin during the neonatal period (28 days) by using very large sample sizes and modern hematology analyzers, accounting for gestational and postnatal age and gender. Data were assembled from a multihospital health care system after exclusion of patients with a high likelihood of an abnormal value and those who were receiving blood transfusions. During the interval from 22 to 40 weeks' gestation, the hematocrit and blood hemoglobin concentration increased approximately linearly. For every week advance in gestational age, the hematocrit increased by 0.64% and the hemoglobin concentration increased by 0.21 g/dL. No difference was seen on the basis of gender. During the 4-hour interval after birth, hematocrit/hemoglobin values of late preterm and term neonates (35-42 weeks' gestation) increased by 3.6% +/- 0.5% (mean +/- SD), those of neonates of 29 to 34 weeks' gestation remained unchanged, and those of hematocrit/hemoglobin occurred. The figures presented herein describe reference ranges for hematocrit and blood hemoglobin concentration during the neonatal period, accounting for gestational and postnatal age.

  5. Hyperfractionated radiotherapy (2100 cGY) for stage 4 neuroblastoma as part of intensive multimodality therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gollamudi, S.V.; Kushner, B.H.; Merchant, T.E.; LaQuaglia, M.; Lindsley, K.; Rosenfield, N.; Abramson, S.; Kramer, K.; Cheung, N.K.V.

    1997-01-01

    PURPOSE: To retrospectively evaluate the role of hyperfractionated radiotherapy to the primary site following induction chemotherapy and aggressive surgical resection in patients (pts) with stage 4 neuroblastoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 48 previously untreated children (median age at diagnosis 3 yo, range 1-10 yo) with stage 4 neuroblastoma achieved a complete-, near-complete-, or partial-remission after multimodality therapy (protocol N4: 6 pts, N5: 7 pts, N6: 27 pts, or N7: 8 pts). All protocols included a regimen consisting of dose-intensive multiagent chemotherapy, maximal surgical debulking, followed by hyperfractionated radiotherapy. Most pts then underwent consolidation with either autologous marrow transplantation (N4 and N5), or immunotherapy (N6 and N7) with radioimmunotherapy (N7). Of 48 pts, 46 had microscopic disease at the primary site prior to beginning radiotherapy (45 underwent gross total resection of the primary, and one had no residual primary disease after chemotherapy alone). One pt had a partial resection, and one remained unresectable after mutimodality therapy. The pre-chemotherapy volume of the primary tumor and regional lymph nodes were irradiated to a total dose of 2100cGy delivered twice-daily in 150 cGy fractions over 7 treatment days. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 32.5 months (range= 8-145 months), local-regional control was achieved in 44 of the 48 pts. Of the pts who are progression-free, median follow-up was 53.5 months. Overall, 24 of 48 pts progressed, three with local-regional recurrence as the first site of relapse, one with distant failure first and subsequent local-regional recurrence, and 21 with distant failure only. The probability of local-regional control at 32 months was 83%. One of the four pts with local-regional relapse never achieved a complete remission with either systemic therapy, surgical resection or radiotherapy. The progression-free survival at 32 months was 46%. Median time to overall progression was 16

  6. FPGA based computation of average neutron flux and e-folding period for start-up range of reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ram, Rajit; Borkar, S.P.; Dixit, M.Y.; Das, Debashis

    2013-01-01

    Pulse processing instrumentation channels used for reactor applications, play a vital role to ensure nuclear safety in startup range of reactor operation and also during fuel loading and first approach to criticality. These channels are intended for continuous run time computation of equivalent reactor core neutron flux and e-folding period. This paper focuses only the computational part of these instrumentation channels which is implemented in single FPGA using 32-bit floating point arithmetic engine. The computations of average count rate, log of average count rate, log rate and reactor period are done in VHDL using digital circuit realization approach. The computation of average count rate is done using fully adaptive window size moving average method, while Taylor series expansion for logarithms is implemented in FPGA to compute log of count rate, log rate and reactor e-folding period. This paper describes the block diagrams of digital logic realization in FPGA and advantage of fully adaptive window size moving average technique over conventional fixed size moving average technique for pulse processing of reactor instrumentations. (author)

  7. Dynamical and statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in a Mediterranean area

    KAUST Repository

    Pizzigalli, Claudia

    2012-03-28

    In this paper we present and discuss a comparison between statistical and regional climate modeling techniques for downscaling GCM prediction . The comparison is carried out over the “Capitanata” region, an area of agricultural interest in south-eastern Italy, for current (1961-1990) and future (20712100) climate. The statistical model is based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), associated with a data pre-filtering obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), whereas the Regional Climate Model REGCM3 was used for dynamical downscaling. Downscaling techniques were applied to estimate rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and average number of consecutive wet and dry days. Both methods have comparable skills in estimating stations data. They show good results for spring, the most important season for agriculture. Both statistical and dynamical models reproduce the statistical properties of precipitation well, the crucial variable for the growth of crops.

  8. An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Déqué, M.; Rowell, D. P.; Lüthi, D.

    2007-01-01

    Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071-2100 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed...... as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another...... scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according...

  9. Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate. (letter)

  10. Circadian rhythms in blood pressure in free-ranging three-toed sloths (Bradypus variegatus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte D.P.F.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Blood pressure (BP profiles were monitored in nine free-ranging sloths (Bradypus variegatus by coupling one common carotid artery to a BP telemetry transmitter. Animals moved freely in an isolated and temperature-controlled room (24ºC with 12/12-h artificial light-dark cycles and behaviors were observed during resting, eating and moving. Systolic (SBP and diastolic (DBP blood pressures were sampled for 1 min every 15 min for 24 h. BP rhythm over 24 h was analyzed by the cosinor method and the mesor, amplitude, acrophase and percent rhythm were calculated. A total of 764 measurements were made in the light cycle and 721 in the dark cycle. Twenty-four-hour values (mean ± SD were obtained for SBP (121 ± 22 mmHg, DBP (86 ± 17 mmHg, mean BP (MBP, 98 ± 18 mmHg and heart rate (73 ± 16 bpm. The SBP, DBP and MBP were significantly higher (unpaired Student t-test during the light period (125 ± 21, 88 ± 15 and 100 ± 17 mmHg, respectively than during the dark period (120 ± 21, 85 ± 17 and 97 ± 17 mmHg, respectively and the acrophase occurred between 16:00 and 17:45 h. This circadian variation is similar to that observed in cats, dogs and marmosets. The BP decreased during "behavioral sleep" (MBP down from 110 ± 19 to 90 ± 19 mmHg at 21:00 to 8:00 h. Both feeding and moving induced an increase in MBP (96 ± 17 to 119 ± 17 mmHg at 17:00 h and 97 ± 19 to 105 ± 12 mmHg at 15:00 h, respectively. The results show that conscious sloths present biphasic circadian fluctuations in BP levels, which are higher during the light period and are mainly synchronized with feeding.

  11. Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2018-02-01

    larger, reaching values which are not observed in the historical period. More than half of the heat waves will be stronger than the extreme heat wave of 2003 by the end of the century. The future heatwaves will also enclose larger areas, approximately 100 events in the 2071-2100 period (more than 3 per year) will cover the whole country. The RCP4.5 scenario has in general smaller magnitudes.

  12. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2017-01-01

    This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

  13. Repair procedure used in removing corroded pits in the distillation towers of the Getulio Vargas Refinery Unit 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lordelos, H.M.; Santin, J.L.

    1977-07-01

    A description is given of the corrosion pits on ASTM A240, Type 405 steel cladded to carbon steel plates used in Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.'s Getulio Vargas Refinery Unit 2100 distillation towers; the repair procedure used, including sand blasting of the corroded surfaces, grinding of the pits, and welding of those pits whose depth was above a maximum limit, and the use of liquid penetrant to check the repairs made; and hydrostatic testing of the T2201 catalytic cracking unit, which used also cladded metals and on which the pits were much smaller in size and number than those on the distillation units.

  14. Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavas, Daniel R.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Gao, Xuejie

    2009-06-15

    Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in northeastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenario conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30ºN, 108ºE] to [42ºN, 123ºE]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study.

  15. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  16. Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, Colin S.; Pyare, Sanjay; Goldstein, Michael I.; Alaback, Paul B.; Albert, David M.; Beier, Colin M.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Edwards, Rick T.; Hood, Eran; MacKinnon, Andy; McPhee, Megan V.; Patterson, Trista; Suring, Lowell H.; Tallmon, David; Wipfli, Mark S.

    2015-01-01

    We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (20712100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

  17. Evaluation of disinfecting effect of 5% sodium hypochlorite solution diluted to 2:100 along with the use of disposable covers on HBV contaminated dental office surfaces and equipments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arami S.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: The efficiency of disinfecting materials and procedures in removal of contamination from dental surfaces and equipments is essential. In authors' previous study, daily use of 2:100 dilution of 5% sodium hypochlorite in water and disposable covers were recommended since HBV contamination was found on semi-critical parts of the operative dentistry department. The aim of this study was to evaluate the HBV contamination following application of the recommended procedures.Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in two parts. In the first cross-sectional part, samples were collected from 17 sites of dental surfaces. In the second interventional part samples were collected from 10 sites of 9 dental and 3 sites of 2 light cure units, before and after disinfection with 5% sodium hypochlorite solution diluted to 2:100. Sterile cotton swabs moistened with sterile BSAS (Bovine Serum Albumin in Sodium Chloride solution were used for sampling. Samples were tested by PCR technique in Pasteur Institute, Iran.Results: None of the samples collected in the first part of the study showed contamination. In the second part of the study, from 96 samples taken from various parts of dental and light cure units, before and after disinfection, there was only one HBV contaminated site before disinfection which showed no contamination after disinfection.Conclusion: Based on the results of this study, disinfecting procedure with 5% sodium hypochlorite solution diluted to 2:100 along with using disposable covers is effective in preventing HBV contamination.

  18. Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

    2017-04-01

    Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic

  19. High-resolution absorption measurements of NH3 at high temperatures: 500–2100cm−1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barton, Emma J.; Yurchenko, Sergei N.; Tennyson, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    High-resolution absorption spectra of NH3 in the region 500–2100 cm -1 at temperatures up to1027 1C and approximately atmospheric pressure (1013±20 mbar) are measured. NH3 concentrations of 1000 ppm,0.5% and 1% in volume fraction were used in the measurements. Spectra are recorded in high tempera...... to a variational line list, BYTe, and experimental energy levels determined using the MARVEL procedure. Approximately 2000 lines have been assigned, of which 851are newly assigned to mainly hot bands involving vibrational states as high as v2=5....

  20. 'Not all that burns is wood'. A social perspective on fuel exploitation and use during the Indus urban period (2600-1900 BC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancelotti, Carla

    2018-01-01

    Ancient civilisations depended heavily on natural fuel resources for a wide array of activities, and this had an impact on such resources that can be traced in the archaeological record. At its urban apex, the populations of the Indus Civilisation (2600-1900 BC) produced a wide range of objects and crafts, several of which involved highly specialised pyrotechnology. In the wake of increasing aridity and a period of weakened monsoon rainfall that affected South Asia from 2100 BC, these activities potentially put pressure on the natural resource base that may have had to be counterbalanced by differentiation in fuel use. The combined analysis of archaeobotanical and geoarchaeological remains from four Indus urban phase archaeological sites, has enable an assessment of the mechanisms through which people exploited wood, and diversified their fuel resources to adapt to the arid to semi-arid environments in which they lived. The combined use of local wood species with alternative fuels, such as dung and crop-processing leftovers, are evidence for resilient socio-ecological practices during the 700 years of Indus urbanism and perhaps beyond.

  1. Potential impact of global warming on the range of Spruce, Fir, Beech and sessile Oak in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piedallu, Christian; Perez, Vincent; Gegout, Jean-Claude; Lebourgeois, Francois; Bertrand, Romain

    2009-01-01

    There have been many studies all over the world that forecast the impact of global warming on vegetation but there is little information currently available to assess its consequences on French forests. The authors studied the range of four common species - spruce, fir, beech and sessile oak - so as to determine their ecology as accurately as possible and assess their sensitivity to global warming. Their range over the period from 1961-1990 was modelled and mapped for the whole of France using ecological variables that characterize climate, water supply, and soil nutrition. The models constructed predict effects from temperature, the water resource, water-logging and the trophic level of soils that are consistent with empirical knowledge about these species. Changes in the probabilities of presence during the 21. century investigated by simulating the A2 and B2 scenarios of the HadCM3 climate model. Changes in climate as predicted by this model would lead to a decrease of the probabilities of presence for all four species initially in the first part of the 21. century at the outer limits of their ranges and then a very significant drop in most plains and medium altitude upland areas, even according to the most optimistic forecasts under scenario B2. The reduction in the forest surface areas that are favourable to the species investigated for the period 2070-2100 is estimated, depending on the scenario, to be between 92% and 99% for spruce, 80% and 93% for beech, 63% and 83% for fir and 43% and 83% for sessile oak. These forecasted changes are very significant in comparison with the current conditions that are favourable to the presence of these species for which edaphic variables act as a local filter within the overall climate envelope. The authors conclude by underscoring the value of these tools for identifying and mapping the most vulnerable areas so as to be in a position to track the behaviour of these species in these areas and determine the appropriate

  2. Reference ranges for blood concentrations of eosinophils and monocytes during the neonatal period defined from over 63 000 records in a multihospital health-care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, R D; Jensen, J; Maheshwari, A; Henry, E

    2010-08-01

    Blood concentrations of eosinophils and monocytes are part of the complete blood count. Reference ranges for these concentrations during the neonatal period, established by very large sample sizes and modern methods, are needed for identifying abnormally low or high values. We constructed reference ranges for eosinophils per microl and monocytes per microl among neonates of 22 to 42 weeks of gestation, on the day of birth, and also during 28 days after birth. Data were obtained from archived electronic records over an eight and one-half-year period in a multihospital health-care system. In keeping with the reference range concept, values were excluded from neonates with a diagnosis of infection or necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Eosinophils and monocytes per microl of blood were electronically retrieved from 96 162 records, of which 63 371 that lacked a diagnosis of infection or NEC were included in this reference range report. The mean value for eosinophils per microl on the day of birth increased linearly between 22 and 42 weeks of gestation, as did the 5 and 95% values. The reference range at 40 weeks was 140 to 1300 microl(-1) (mean 550 microl(-1)). Similarly, the mean value for monocytes increased linearly over this interval, with a reference range at 40 weeks of 300 to 3300 microl(-1) (mean 1400 microl(-1)). Over the first 4 weeks after birth, no appreciable change was observed in 5% limit and mean eosinophil count, with a slight increase in the 95% limit in week 4. A slight increase in monocyte count was observed during the first 2 weeks after birth. The results of this analysis describe reference ranges for blood concentrations of eosinophils and monocytes during the neonatal period. Additional study is needed for determining the relevance of values falling outside the reference range.

  3. Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Seaby, Lauren Paige

    2015-01-01

    and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics...

  4. Histologic and Radiographic Analysis of Nonhealing Extraction Sockets Treated with Bio-Oss Collagen After a 4-Month Healing Period: A Prospective Descriptive Study in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirone, Federico; Salzano, Stefano; Pagano, Marco

    2018-03-07

    Healing of extraction sockets may sometimes result in formation of fibrous tissue instead of bone, even after 4 months, an occurrence that may hinder implant placement. The aim of this preliminary observational study was to histologically evaluate quality and amount of bone regeneration after treating nonhealing sockets with a bovine-derived xenograft enriched with porcine collagen (Bio-Oss Collagen, Geistlich) without barrier membranes. Biopsy specimens were collected during implant placement, 4 months after grafting. A total of 10 cases were treated and evaluated. In all cases, correct implant placement was possible and no implant failure occurred up to 6 months after loading. The histologic analysis demonstrated new bone formation in all specimens. The percentage of newly formed bone was 29.1% (SD 20.71%; range 5% to 48%). Xenograft particles in direct contact with newly formed bone were visible, and mature lamellar bone was observed in 8 cases.

  5. The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

    2018-01-01

    Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a

  6. Determination of Flood Reduction Alternatives for Climate Change Adaptation in Gyeongancheon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, D.; Joo, H. J.; Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to the climate change and the impermeable area in an urban watershed has also increased due to the rapid urbanization. Therefore, the flood risk is increasing and we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood damage reduction. For the determination of appropriate measures or alternatives, firstly, this study estimated the frequency based rainfall considering the climate change according to the each target period(reference : 1971˜2010, Target period Ⅰ : 2011˜2040, Target period Ⅱ : 2041˜2070, Target period Ⅲ : 2071˜2100). Then the future flood discharge was computed by using HEC-HMS model. We set 5 sizes of drainage pumps and detention ponds respectively as the flood reduction alternatives and the flood level in the river was obtained by each alternative through HEC-RAS model. The flood inundation map was constructed using topographical data and flood water level in the river and the economic analysis was conducted for the flood damage reduction studies using Multi Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA) tool. As a result of the effectiveness analysis of the flood reduction alternatives, the flood level by drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of the detention pond. The flooded area was shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth was also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost ratio estimated by the economic analysis, a detention pond E in the target period Ⅰ and the pump D in the periods Ⅱ and Ⅲ were considered as the appropriate alternatives for the flood damage reduction under the climate change. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

  7. Recent and future rainfall erosivity on the territory of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasa, Josef; Stredova, Hana; Stepanek, Petr; Hanel, Martin; Dostal, Tomas; Novotny, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    Water erosion is a main factor of degradation of soils used for agriculture in the Czech Republic. For landscape conservation purposes the soil erosion risk is defined here mostly by USLE (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). Within USLE the precipitation impact on erosion is a function of rainfall kinetic energy and intensity represented by R-factor. In the Czech Republic historically and recently several research teams have analyzed rainfall data to assess R-factor. Till now not many European countries have performed detailed spatially distributed analyses of rain erosivities. Most studies use only simplified methods based on long-term rainfall averages or databases of only several station-datasets. The most recent study on rainfall erosivity spatial distribution over the Czech Republic was based on digital rain gauge data from automatic stations of the Czech Hydrometeorogical Institute. The erosive rains were derived from continuous 1 minute step 10-year rainfall data (2003-2012) from 245 stations. Based on the research recent annual R-factor values in the stations vary from 37 to 239 [N.h-1] (values over 100 are located in mountain regions with minimum of agricultural land). Average value is 69 [N.h-1.year-1]. For the Czech Republic the future prediction is based on 10km resolution ALADIN/CZ regional climate model. Within the EU FP6 project CECILIA it was coupled with GCM ARPEGE to provide a projection of future climate in two time slices, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. Daily precipitation volumes and percentiles of maximal events allowed authors to develop R-factor maps of present and future scenarios. Based on the analyses we can conclude that average value for the whole territory of the Czech Republic will remain close to 70 [N.h-1.year-1] or even decrease for 2071-2100, but we can expect significant changes (30-40 % rise or decrease) for several large agricultural regions (eg. Southern Moravia). These changes will have impact

  8. Earth Noise in the 20- to 100-Second Period Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-09-09

    instruments were incapable of following fluctuations of shorter periods.) Gretener (1967) obtained similar results. Both of these workers...found indica- tions that the convection eddies believed to exist were comparable to the hole diameter in vertical extent. Both Gretener (1967...Heat flow in Western Canada: geoph. J., v. 6, p. 245-261. Gretener , P. E., 1967, On the thermal instability of large diameter wells: geophysics, J32

  9. The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehner, Flavio; Raible, Christoph C.; Hofer, Dominik; Stocker, Thomas F. [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2012-07-15

    The ocean and sea ice in both polar regions are important reservoirs of freshwater within the climate system. While the response of these reservoirs to future climate change has been studied intensively, the sensitivity of the polar freshwater balance to natural forcing variations during preindustrial times has received less attention. Using an ensemble of transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD we put present-day and future states of the polar freshwater balance in the context of low frequency variability of the past five centuries. This is done by focusing on different multi-decadal periods of characteristic external forcing. In the Arctic, freshwater is shifted from the ocean to sea ice during the Maunder Minimum while the total amount of freshwater within the Arctic domain remains unchanged. In contrast, the subsequent Dalton Minimum does not leave an imprint on the slow-reacting reservoirs of the ocean and sea ice, but triggers a drop in the import of freshwater through the atmosphere. During the twentieth and twenty-first century the build-up of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean leads to a strengthening of the liquid export. The Arctic freshwater balance is shifted towards being a large source of freshwater to the North Atlantic ocean. The Antarctic freshwater cycle, on the other hand, appears to be insensitive to preindustrial variations in external forcing. In line with the rising temperature during the industrial era the freshwater budget becomes increasingly unbalanced and strengthens the high latitude's Southern Ocean as a source of liquid freshwater to lower latitude oceans. (orig.)

  10. Net exchanges of methane and carbon dioxide on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zhu, Xudong; He, Jin-Sheng; Song, Weimin

    2015-01-01

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) that affects the global climate system. Knowledge about land–atmospheric CH 4 exchanges on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is insufficient. Using a coupled biogeochemistry model, this study analyzes the net exchanges of CH 4 and CO 2 over the QTP for the period of 1979–2100. Our simulations show that the region currently acts as a net CH 4 source with 0.95 Tg CH 4 y −1 emissions and 0.19 Tg CH 4 y −1 soil uptake, and a photosynthesis C sink of 14.1 Tg C y −1 . By accounting for the net CH 4 emission and the net CO 2 sequestration since 1979, the region was found to be initially a warming source until the 2010s with a positive instantaneous radiative forcing peak in the 1990s. In response to future climate change projected by multiple global climate models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the regional source of CH 4 to the atmosphere will increase by 15–77% at the end of this century. Net ecosystem production (NEP) will continually increase from the near neutral state to around 40 Tg C y −1 under all RCPs except RCP8.5. Spatially, CH 4 emission or uptake will be noticeably enhanced under all RCPs over most of the QTP, while statistically significant NEP changes over a large-scale will only appear under RCP4.5 and RCP4.6 scenarios. The cumulative GHG fluxes since 1979 will exert a slight warming effect on the climate system until the 2030s, and will switch to a cooling effect thereafter. Overall, the total radiative forcing at the end of the 21st century is 0.25–0.35 W m −2 , depending on the RCP scenario. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for both CH 4 and CO 2 in quantifying the regional GHG budget. (paper)

  11. CPU time optimization and precise adjustment of the Geant4 physics parameters for a VARIAN 2100 C/D gamma radiotherapy linear accelerator simulation using GAMOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arce, Pedro; Lagares, Juan Ignacio

    2018-02-01

    We have verified the GAMOS/Geant4 simulation model of a 6 MV VARIAN Clinac 2100 C/D linear accelerator by the procedure of adjusting the initial beam parameters to fit the percentage depth dose and cross-profile dose experimental data at different depths in a water phantom. Thanks to the use of a wide range of field sizes, from 2  ×  2 cm2 to 40  ×  40 cm2, a small phantom voxel size and high statistics, fine precision in the determination of the beam parameters has been achieved. This precision has allowed us to make a thorough study of the different physics models and parameters that Geant4 offers. The three Geant4 electromagnetic physics sets of models, i.e. Standard, Livermore and Penelope, have been compared to the experiment, testing the four different models of angular bremsstrahlung distributions as well as the three available multiple-scattering models, and optimizing the most relevant Geant4 electromagnetic physics parameters. Before the fitting, a comprehensive CPU time optimization has been done, using several of the Geant4 efficiency improvement techniques plus a few more developed in GAMOS.

  12. Comparison study of the rates of manual peripheral blood smear review from 3 automated hematology analyzers, Unicel DxH 800, ADVIA 2120i, and XE 2100, using international consensus group guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sue Jung; Kim, Yoonjung; Shin, Saeam; Song, Jaewoo; Choi, Jong Rak

    2012-11-01

    In the clinical laboratory, it is important both to reduce the number of peripheral blood slide reviews to save time and money and to avoid reporting false results. To determine differences in the slide review rates of 3 widely used automated hematologic analyzers, the Unicel DxH 800 (Beckman Coulter Inc, Fullerton, California), ADVIA 2120i (Siemens Diagnostics, Tarrytown, New York), and XE 2100 (Sysmex, Kobe, Japan), using International Consensus Group for Hematology Review guidelines. A total of 1485 samples were tested, and 300 were manually reviewed. Slide review rates, sensitivity, specificity, and false-positive and false-negative rates were estimated using consensus group rules and compared using χ(2) tests, Fisher exact tests, or generalized estimating equations. Unicel DxH 800, ADVIA 2120i, and XE 2100 showed 22.8%, 20.2%, and 28.6% slide review rates; 14.3%, 14.3%, and 9.7% false-negative rates; and 13.7, 11.3%, and 17.3% false-positive rates, respectively. All analyzers showed significantly higher false-negative rates than that of the consensus group (2.9%). False-negative rates were higher than the recommended levels. Among 3 automated hematologic analyzers, XE 2100 showed the highest rate of slide review. Because the present study clearly shows that the slide review rates have distinct characteristics among the studied analyzers, each individual laboratory should consider selecting the most appropriate analyzer according to clinical characteristics. Analyzers with high sensitivity may be advantageous in outpatient settings for screening patients, whereas analyzers with high specificity may be beneficial in inpatient settings for efficient patient care.

  13. Personal Storytelling and Narrative as a Means for Climate Scientists to Engage and Inform Public Audiences - Illustrated by the Play '2071 - The World We'll Leave Our Grandchildren' Comissioned by the Royal Court Theatre, London and the Deutsches Schauspielhaus, Hamburg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapley, C. G.

    2015-12-01

    In order to engage greater public interest in science it is necessary to move beyond the traditional academic "information deficit" mode of communication, with its emphasis on the delivery and explantion of 'facts'. This is especially the case for topics such as climate science, which have the potential to provoke strong conscious or unconscious emotional and ideological audience reactions. The use of personalised narrative and storytelling offers a means to draw in non-experts in a way that overcomes barriers of disinterest or prejudice. The talk will address the role of climate scientists in communicating within the public square, and will use the play '2071 - The World We'll Leave Our Grandchildren" as an example of how theatre can provide an effective means of communicating complex and provocative knowledge and understanding. The play was commissioned by the Royal Court Theatre, London and the Deutshes Schauspielhaus, Hamburg. It received positive reviews and sold out at the London venue.

  14. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Skougaard Kaspersen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (20712100 are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

  15. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Madsen, H.; Drews, M.

    2015-06-01

    The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984-2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071-2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

  16. Distributed modelling of climate change impacts on snow sublimation in Northern Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menzel

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986–2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 20712100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm. The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.

  17. Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

    2010-09-01

    After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

  18. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  19. Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-07-01

    Various drought prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSAF) have been affected by severe droughts in recent decades and centuries, which had caused catastrophic humanitarian crisis. In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index was used to analyse changes in drought characteristics of SSAF during 1971-2000 and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate projections of selected GCMs (Global Climate Models) for the 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) periods. The results show that most areas in South Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) will shift to a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s. However, some areas in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to be relatively wetter in the 2050 and 2080s whereas very little change is projected in the average drought severity of Central Africa (CA). The frequency of short (6-12 months) and long (above 12 months) drought events also increased on average by 5 %. However, a 1-6 % decrease in the average duration of long drought periods was projected during the 2050 and 2080s likely due to the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in SSAF. An increase in the frequency of El Niño episodes under a warmer twentyfirst century climate is also expected to increase the drought prone regions of WA, SA and particularly GHA while CA still remains virtually unaffected. Overall, the results suggest that SSAF will experience a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s with an increase in drought prone areas in the four corners of the sub-continent.

  20. Norway's historical and projected water balance in TWh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Holmqvist, Erik

    2015-04-01

    on average peaks in the middle of April at 54 TWh, ranging from 33 to 84 TWh. Given its simplicity, the method of using conversion factors is a time and computational efficient way of producing projections of hydropower production potential from an ensemble of climate model simulations. Regional climate model (RCM) projections are obtained from Euro-Cordex, and precipitation and temperature are bias corrected to observation based datasets at 1 km2. Preliminary results, based on an ensemble consisting of 16 members (8 RCMs, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and transient hydrological simulations for the period 1981-2100, indicate an increase in hydroelectric power production of up to 10 percent by the end of the century, given the effect of climate change alone. The expected increase in temperature causes a negative trend for the energy potential stored in the annual maximum snow pack. At the end of the century (2071-2100), the maximum snow pack holds 43 TWh and 30 TWh for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared to 54 TWh in 1981-2010. The substantial decrease in the peak snow pack is reflected in the seasonally more even inflow to reservoirs expected in the next decades.

  1. 2071-IJBCS-Article-Adida Houria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hp

    Traditional medicine has a key role in health care worldwide; the search for antimicrobial agents from plants has been a growing interest in the last few decades. In the present study, antibacterial properties of. Pituranthos scoparius were explored. Aerial and root parts of the plant were extracted with a series of solvent.

  2. Price Variation of Tomatoes and Ginger in Giwa Market, Kaduna ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jamila Rabe Mani

    ginger marketing an indication of principle of supply and demand. The feasibility for storage were 20.71% and 21.44% for tomato and ginger respectively, implying that the producers/marketers of both tomato and ginger will make highest returns if they stored and sold to other (urban/international) markets during periods of ...

  3. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Schneider, Stephen H; Fay, John P; Loarie, Scott R

    2008-02-01

    Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

  4. Stable C &N isotopes in 2100 Year-B.P. human bone collagen indicate rare dietary dominance of C4 plants in NE-Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laffranchi, Zita; Huertas, Antonio Delgado; Jiménez Brobeil, Sylvia A; Torres, Arsenio Granados; Riquelme Cantal, Jose A

    2016-12-09

    C 4 plants (e.g. maize, millet), part of our current diet, are only endemic of reduced areas in South-Europe due to their need of warm climates. Since the first vestiges of agriculture in Europe remains of C 4 plants were recorded but their overall proportion in the human diet remains unknown. Therefore, isotopic (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) composition of bone collagen from the skeletal remains (human and animals) of a Celtic population, Cenomani Gauls, from Verona (3 rd to 1 st century BC) in the NE Italy provide a new perspective on this matter. The δ 13 C collagen values of 90 human skeletal individuals range between -20.2‰ and -9.7‰ (V-PDB) with a mean value of -15.3‰. As present day C 4 plants have δ 13 C values around -11‰, which is equivalent to -9.5‰ for samples of preindustrial age, the less negative δ 13 C values in these individuals indicate a diet dominated by C 4 plants. This palaeodietary study indicates that some European populations predominantly consumed cultivated C 4 plants 2100 year B.P. This is supported by the paleobotanical records and ancient Roman sources (e.g. Pliny the Elder), which indicate that millet was a staple food in South-Europe.

  5. Forward Period Analysis Method of the Periodic Hamiltonian System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengfei Wang

    Full Text Available Using the forward period analysis (FPA, we obtain the period of a Morse oscillator and mathematical pendulum system, with the accuracy of 100 significant digits. From these results, the long-term [0, 1060] (time unit solutions, ranging from the Planck time to the age of the universe, are computed reliably and quickly with a parallel multiple-precision Taylor series (PMT scheme. The application of FPA to periodic systems can greatly reduce the computation time of long-term reliable simulations. This scheme provides an efficient way to generate reference solutions, against which long-term simulations using other schemes can be tested.

  6. Short-range order in alloys of nickel with the elements of group VIII of the periodic table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khwaja, F.A.

    1981-08-01

    Experimental measurements of the diffuse X-ray scattering intensity were performed on alloys of Ni with Rh and Os. The atomic short-range order (SRO) parameters αsub(i) and the size-effect parameters βsub(i) were calculated from these measurements. It is established that SRO and size-effect exist in Ni-Rh and Ni-Os alloys analogously as in a few other alloys of Ni with the elements of group VIII of the periodic table. The experimental data was interpreted theoretically by calculating the interaction energies from the pseudo-potentials and the effective valencies of the individual components of the systems studied. It was found that theoretically calculated values of the interaction energies for these alloys are inconsistent with the experimentally determined sign of the SRO parameter. (author)

  7. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Hyun Lee

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available North Korea is a food-deficit nation in which climate change could have a significant impact on drought. We analyzed drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using both the multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI from 1981 to 2100. The probability of non-exceedance for a one-month SPEI below −1.0 was only 1.1% in the spring season of 1995 but increased to 24.4% in 2085. The SPEI for a ten-year return period varied from −0.6 to −0.9 in 1995 and decreased to −1.18 in 2025. The results indicate that severe drought is more likely to occur in future as a result of climate change. The seasonal drought conditions were also significantly influenced by climate change. The largest decrease in the SPEI occurred in late spring and early summer, both of which are important for rice growth. Drought characteristics include severity, duration, and intensity. Therefore, we applied the time series of SPIs and SPEIs to the runs theory and found that the drought intensity identified by one-month SPEIs in 1995 was at a level of 1.21, which reached 1.39 in 2085, implying that climate change will intensify drought in the future.

  8. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde

    2010-03-01

    various emission scenarios. Five global models from IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC and GISS are used, for 1961-1990 (present climate from the 20C3M model run, and for 2011-2100 for the SRES A2 high emission scenario. For the future, (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods, in most of the models (except the MIROC, the thermal continental low (Chaco low is shifted to the southwest while the Bolivian High is northwest shifted during in the summer and spring. All the models show, for present climate simulation a weak subtropical southeast Pacific anticyclone (SPA, which would induce a reduction atmospheric subsidence. When the anticyclone is shifted southward, it would be linked with a stronger and more southward Pacific ITCZ. For the future climate, only two models (HadCM3 and GISS showaweakerSPAascomparedtothepresent. Ontheotherhand,thesubtropicalsouthwestAtlantic anticyclone (SAA seems to be more intense during fall and winter in almost all models (with the exception of the GISS model. Among the different models, the HadCM3 simulates the summer and spring circulation close to NCEP Reanalysis. This model does exhibit a relatively well simulated SACZ, contributing with a decrease of precipitation over Amazon. Moreover, for the future scenarios the HadCM3 model shows changes in rainfall patterns, with positive anomalies over the West Coast of Peru and Equator and negative anomalies over Northeast of Brazil, and Eastern of Amazon, linked to weaker and southward shifted South Pacific High, enforcing the ITCZ over 5ºS, as a consequence of a decrease of the moisture convergence over Amazon.

  9. Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dengpan Xiao

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2, it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 20712100 referred to as 80S. Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010, the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP and the whole growth period (WGP. As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE significantly improved in the future period.

  10. A reviewed technique for total body electron therapy using a Varian Clinac 2100C/D high dose rate treatment beam facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, L.D.; Xuereb, E.M.A.; Last, V.; Hunt, P.B.; Wilfert, A.

    1996-01-01

    Our (Royal North Shore Hospital) most recent linear accelerator acquisition is a Varian Clinac 2100C/D which has a high dose rate (approximately 25Gy per minute at 1 metre) total body electron option. We investigated the physical characteristics of the electron beam to develop a suitable method of treatment for total body electron therapy. The useful electron beam width is defined as 80cm above and below the reference height. Measurements of the electron dose received from the two angled electron beams showed a critical dependence on the gantry angles. The treatment protocol uses ten different patient angles, fractionated into directly opposing fields and treated seuqentially each day. A full cycle of treatment is completed in five days. (author)

  11. Characterization of JEOL 2100F Lorentz-TEM for low-magnification electron holography and magnetic imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schofield, M.A.; Beleggia, M.; Zhu, Y.; Pozzi, G.

    2008-01-01

    We present results that characterize the performance and capabilities of the JEOL 2100F-LM electron microscope to carry out holography and quantitative magnetic imaging. We find the microscope is well-suited for studies of magnetic materials, or for semi-conductor dopant profiling, where a large hologram width (∼1 μm) and fine fringe spacing (∼1.5 nm) are obtained with good contrast (∼20%). We present, as well, measurements of the spherical aberration coefficient C s =(108.7±9.6) mm and minimum achievable focal step δf=(87.6±1.4) nm for the specially designed long-focal-length objective lens of this microscope. Further, we detail experiments to accurately measure the optical parameters of the imaging system typical of conventional holography setup in a transmission electron microscope. The role played by astigmatic illumination in the hologram formation is also assessed with a wave-optical model, which we present and discuss. The measurements obtained for our microscope are used to simulate realistic holograms, which we compare directly to experimental holograms finding good agreement. These results indicate the usefulness of measuring these optical parameters to guide the optimization of the experimental setup for a given microscope, and to provide an additional degree of practical experimental possibility

  12. High-Intensity Laser-to-Hot-Electron Conversion Efficiency from 1 to 2100 J Using the OMEGA EP Laser System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilson, P. M.

    2010-11-01

    Intense laser--matter interactions generate high-current electron beams. The laser-electron conversion efficiency is an important parameter for fast ignition and for developing intense x-ray sources for flash-radiography and x-ray-scattering experiments. These applications may require kilojoules of laser energy focused to greater than 10^18 W/cm^2 with pulse durations of tens of picoseconds. Previous experiments have measured the conversion efficiency with picosecond and subpicosecond laser pulses with energies up to ˜500 J. The research extends conversion-efficiency measurements to 1- to 10-ps laser pulses with energies up to 2100 J using the OMEGA EP Laser System and shows that the conversion efficiency is constant (20±10%) over the entire range The conversion efficiency is measured for interactions with finite-mass, thin-foil targets. A collimated electron jet exits the target rear surface and initiates rapid target charging, causing the majority of laser-accelerated electrons to recirculate (reflux) within the target. The total fast-electron energy is inferred from K-photon spectroscopy. Time-resolved x-ray emission data suggest that electrons are accelerated into the target over the entire laser-pulse duration with approximately constant conversion. This work provides significant insight into high-intensity laser--target interactions. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inertial Confinement Fusion under Cooperative Agreement Nos. DE-FC52-08NA28302 and DE-FC02-04ER54789. [4pt] In collaboration with R. Betti, A. A. Solodov (LLE/FSC), R. S. Craxton, J. A. Delettrez, C. Dorrer, L. Gao, P. A. Jaanimagi, J. H. Kelly, B. E. Kruschwitz, D. D. Meyerhofer, J. F. Myatt, T. C. Sangster, C. Stoeckl, W. Theobald, B. Yaakobi, J. D. Zuegel (LLE), A. J. MacKinnon, P. K. Patel (LLNL), K. U. Akli (General Atomics), L. Willingale, K. M. Krushelnick (U. of Michigan).

  13. HATS-43b, HATS-44b, HATS-45b, and HATS-46b: Four Short-period Transiting Giant Planets in the Neptune–Jupiter Mass Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brahm, R.; Hartman, J. D.; Jordán, A.; Bakos, G. Á.; Espinoza, N.; Rabus, M.; Bhatti, W.; Penev, K.; Sarkis, P.; Suc, V.; Csubry, Z.; Bayliss, D.; Bento, J.; Zhou, G.; Mancini, L.; Henning, T.; Ciceri, S.; de Val-Borro, M.; Shectman, S.; Crane, J. D.; Arriagada, P.; Butler, P.; Teske, J.; Thompson, I.; Osip, D.; Díaz, M.; Schmidt, B.; Lázár, J.; Papp, I.; Sári, P.

    2018-03-01

    We report the discovery of four short-period extrasolar planets transiting moderately bright stars from photometric measurements of the HATSouth network coupled to additional spectroscopic and photometric follow-up observations. While the planet masses range from 0.26 to 0.90 {M}{{J}}, the radii are all approximately a Jupiter radii, resulting in a wide range of bulk densities. The orbital period of the planets ranges from 2.7 days to 4.7 days, with HATS-43b having an orbit that appears to be marginally non-circular (e = 0.173 ± 0.089). HATS-44 is notable for having a high metallicity ([{Fe}/{{H}}] = 0.320 ± 0.071). The host stars spectral types range from late F to early K, and all of them are moderately bright (13.3 Carnegie Institute is operated by PU in conjunction with PUC, the station at the High Energy Spectroscopic Survey (H.E.S.S.) site is operated in conjunction with MPIA, and the station at Siding Spring Observatory (SSO) is operated jointly with ANU. This paper includes data gathered with the MPG 2.2 m and ESO 3.6 m telescopes at the ESO Observatory in La Silla. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 meter Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile.

  14. Determination of amplitudes in neutral pion photoproduction and comparison with partial waves analysis in the energy range of 1.3 to 2.1 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forozani, G.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of four independent amplitudes are obtained pion photoproduction in the energy range of 1300 to 2100 MeV incident photon. Different cross section and three polarization parameters are required for such amplitudes reconstruction at different pion scattering angles. Results of the direct amplitudes reconstruction have been compared with the solution of partial wave analysis SM95 and SM00K at all energies. This analysis indicates that we have a fair agreement between the present work and the results of partial wave analysis at many angles

  15. Determination of amplitudes in neutral pion photoproduction and comparison with partial waves analysis in the energy range of 1.3 to 2.1 GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forozani, G.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of four independent amplitudes are obtained in neutral pion photoproduction in the energy range of 1300 to 2100 MeV incident photon. Differential gross section and three polarization parameters are required for such amplitudes reconstruction at different pion scattering angles. Results of the direct amplitudes reconstruction have been compared with the solution of partial wave analysis SM95 and SM00K at all energies. This analysis indicates that we have a fair agreement between the present work and the results of partial wave analysis at meny angles (Author)

  16. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  17. Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, G.; Panagopoulos, A.; Pisinaras, V.; Tziritis, E.; Wendland, F.

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources' quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021-2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981-2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM-GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021-2100 was about - 80 mm, ranging between - 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB.

  18. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  19. Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T.S.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

  20. The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Van Tiel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004 and future (20712100 period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1 the threshold from the historical period; (2 a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical

  1. Energy dependence of relative abundances and periods of delayed neutron separate groups from neutron induced fission of 239Pu in the virgin neutron energy range 0.37-4.97 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piksajkin, V.M.; Kazakov, L.E.; Isaev, S.T.; Korolev, G.G.; Roshchenko, V.A.; Tertychnyj, R.G.

    2002-01-01

    Relative yield and group period of delayed neutrons induced by the 239 Pu fission in the 0.37-4.97 MeV range were measured. Comparative analysis of experimental data was conducted in terms of middle period of half-life of delayed neutron nuclei-precursors. Character and scale of changing values of delayed neutron group parameters as changing excitation energy of fission compound-nucleus have been demonstrated for the first time. Considerable energy dependence of group parameters under the neutron induced 239 Pu fission that was expressed by the decreasing middle period of half-life of nuclei-precursors by 10 % in the 2.85 eV - 5 MeV range of virgin neutrons was detected [ru

  2. Elastic Bands as a Component of Periodized Resistance Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joy, Jordan M; Lowery, Ryan P; Oliveira de Souza, Eduardo; Wilson, Jacob M

    2016-08-01

    Joy, JM, Lowery, RP, Oliveira de Souza, E, and Wilson, JM. Elastic bands as a component of periodized resistance training. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2100-2106, 2016-Variable resistance training (VRT) has recently become a component of strength and conditioning programs. Prior research has demonstrated increases in power and/or strength using low loads of variable resistance. However, no study has examined using high loads of variable resistance as a part of a periodized training protocol to examine VRT within the context of a periodized training program and to examine a greater load of variable resistance than has been examined in prior research. Fourteen National Collegiate Athletic Association division II male basketball players were recruited for this study. Athletes were divided equally into either a variable resistance or control group. The variable resistance group added 30% of their 1 repetition maximum (1RM) as band tension to their prescribed weight 1 session per week. Rate of power development (RPD), peak power, strength, body composition, and vertical jump height were measured pretreatment and posttreatment. No baseline differences were observed between groups for any measurement of strength, power, or body composition. A significant group by time interaction was observed for RPD, in which RPD was greater in VRT posttraining than in the control group. Significant time effects were observed for all other variables including squat 1RM, bench press 1RM, deadlift 1RM, clean 3RM, vertical jump, and lean mass. Although there were no significant group ×-time interactions, the VRT group's percent changes and effect sizes indicate a larger treatment effect in the squat and bench press 1RM values and the vertical jump performed on the force plate and vertec. These results suggest that when using variable resistance as a component of a periodized training program, power and strength can be enhanced. Therefore, athletes who add variable resistance to 1 training

  3. Super-ranging. A new ranging strategy in European badgers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aoibheann Gaughran

    Full Text Available We monitored the ranging of a wild European badger (Meles meles population over 7 years using GPS tracking collars. Badger range sizes varied seasonally and reached their maximum in June, July and August. We analysed the summer ranging behaviour, using 83 home range estimates from 48 individuals over 6974 collar-nights. We found that while most adult badgers (males and females remained within their own traditional social group boundaries, several male badgers (on average 22% regularly ranged beyond these traditional boundaries. These adult males frequently ranged throughout two (or more social group's traditional territories and had extremely large home ranges. We therefore refer to them as super-rangers. While ranging across traditional boundaries has been recorded over short periods of time for extraterritorial mating and foraging forays, or for pre-dispersal exploration, the animals in this study maintained their super-ranges from 2 to 36 months. This study represents the first time such long-term extra-territorial ranging has been described for European badgers. Holding a super-range may confer an advantage in access to breeding females, but could also affect local interaction networks. In Ireland & the UK, badgers act as a wildlife reservoir for bovine tuberculosis (TB. Super-ranging may facilitate the spread of disease by increasing both direct interactions between conspecifics, particularly across social groups, and indirect interactions with cattle in their shared environment. Understanding super-ranging behaviour may both improve our understanding of tuberculosis epidemiology and inform future control strategies.

  4. Comparison of platelet counts by sysmex XE 2100 and LH-750 with the international flow reference method in thrombocytopenic patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Dadu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are several methods for counting platelets, of which the international flow reference method (IRM is considered to be the gold standard. We compared the platelet count given by this method to the count given by automated analyzers using other methods, such as optical fluorescence and impedance. Aims: The aim of this study is to compare the platelet counts obtained by Sysmex XE 2100 by Impedance (Sysmex-I, optical florescence (Sysmex-O and reported (Sysmex-R based on the switching algorithm and LH-750 by Impedance (LH-750 with the IRM in thrombocytopenic blood samples. To calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV and negative predictive value (NPV of various technologies at the clinically relevant transfusion thresholds of 10 × 10 9 /l and 20 × 10 9 /l. Materials and Methods: A total of 118 blood samples with platelet count of <50 × 10 9 /l were selected for the study. Platelet counts of all samples were analyzed by all methods using the Sysmex analyzer, LH-750 and IRM in parallel within 6 h of collection. Statistical Analysis Used: Pearson correlation, bland Altman analysis, sensitivity and specificity, PPV and NPV. Results and Conclusions: Sysmex-R had the least Bias and 95% limits of agreement (95%LA range and thus correlated best with IRM values. LH-750 had a higher Bias compared to Sysmex-O and Sysmex-R, but a strikingly similar 95% LA ensures similar results in all three methods. In fact, in the oncology subset, it had the narrowest 95% LA, which made it the best performer in this subgroup. Of the three Sysmex results, Sysmex-I had the highest bias, widest 95% LA and highest potential risk of over transfusion. Hence, Sysmex-R and LH-750 were found to be reliable tools for estimation of platelet count in thrombocytopenic patients.

  5. Temporal Variability of Upper-level Winds at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Ryan; Barbre, Robert E.

    2014-01-01

    Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind profiles to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments incorporate wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the upper-level winds over the time period between the assessment and launch can be mitigated by a statistical analysis of wind change over time periods of interest using historical data from the launch range. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility were developed for use in upper-level wind assessments. Database development procedures as well as statistical analysis of temporal wind variability at each launch range will be presented.

  6. Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Extremes in Central Europe: A Case Study in Rural Area in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, R.; Duží, Barbora; Daněk, T.; Němec, D.; Procházka, D.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 3 (2015), s. 12758-12786 ISSN 2071-1050 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : household * floods * adaptation Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.343, year: 2015 http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/9/12758/htm

  7. Evaluation of the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chen, Chun-Lung; Tu, Yi-Long; Yeh, Hung-Te; Wu, Yu-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new statistical downscaling framework to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. • The statistical model relates Weibull distribution parameters to output of a GCM model and regression coefficients. • Validation of the simulated wind speed distribution presents an acceptable agreement with meteorological data. • Three chosen GCMs show the same tendency that the eastern half of Taiwan Strait stores higher wind resources. - Abstract: A new statistical downscaling framework is proposed to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. In this framework, a two-parameter Weibull distribution function is used to estimate the wind energy density distribution in the strait. An empirically statistical downscaling model that relates the Weibull parameters to output of a General Circulation Model (GCM) and regression coefficients is adopted. The regression coefficients are calculated using wind speed results obtained from a past climate (1981–2000) simulation reconstructed by a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These WRF-reconstructed wind speed results are validated with data collected at a weather station on an islet inside the strait. The comparison shows that the probability distributions of the monthly wind speeds obtained from WRF-reconstructed and measured wind speed data are in acceptable agreement, with small discrepancies of 10.3% and 7.9% for the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution, respectively. The statistical downscaling framework with output from three chosen GCMs (i.e., ECHAM5, CM2.1 and CGCM2.3.2) is applied to evaluate the wind energy density distribution in Taiwan Strait for three future climate periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 20712100. The results show that the wind energy density distributions in the future climate periods are higher in the eastern half of Taiwan Strait, but reduce slightly by 3% compared with that in the

  8. Periodic and almost periodic solutions for multi-valued differential equations in Banach spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Hanebaly

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available It is known that for $omega$-periodic differential equations of monotonous type, in uniformly convex Banach spaces, the existence of a bounded solution on ${Bbb R}^+$ is equivalent to the existence of an omega-periodic solution (see Haraux [5] and Hanebaly [7, 10]. It is also known that if the Banach space is strictly convex and the equation is almost periodic and of monotonous type, then the existence of a continuous solution with a precompact range is equivalent to the existence of an almost periodic solution (see Hanebaly [8]. In this note we want to generalize the results above for multi-valued differential equations.

  9. Unsynchronized scanning with a low-cost laser range finder for real-time range imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatipoglu, Isa; Nakhmani, Arie

    2017-06-01

    Range imaging plays an essential role in many fields: 3D modeling, robotics, heritage, agriculture, forestry, reverse engineering. One of the most popular range-measuring technologies is laser scanner due to its several advantages: long range, high precision, real-time measurement capabilities, and no dependence on lighting conditions. However, laser scanners are very costly. Their high cost prevents widespread use in applications. Due to the latest developments in technology, now, low-cost, reliable, faster, and light-weight 1D laser range finders (LRFs) are available. A low-cost 1D LRF with a scanning mechanism, providing the ability of laser beam steering for additional dimensions, enables to capture a depth map. In this work, we present an unsynchronized scanning with a low-cost LRF to decrease scanning period and reduce vibrations caused by stop-scan in synchronized scanning. Moreover, we developed an algorithm for alignment of unsynchronized raw data and proposed range image post-processing framework. The proposed technique enables to have a range imaging system for a fraction of the price of its counterparts. The results prove that the proposed method can fulfill the need for a low-cost laser scanning for range imaging for static environments because the most significant limitation of the method is the scanning period which is about 2 minutes for 55,000 range points (resolution of 250x220 image). In contrast, scanning the same image takes around 4 minutes in synchronized scanning. Once faster, longer range, and narrow beam LRFs are available, the methods proposed in this work can produce better results.

  10. Therapeutic efficiency of decimeter range waves and their effect on cerebral circulation in patients during recovery period after surgery performed on intracranial arteries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danilova, D.P.; Strelkova, N.I.; Streltsova, E.N.

    The goal of this work was to evaluate the therapeutic effect of an electromagnetic field in the decimeter range on focal neurologic symptoms and cerebral circulation in patients recovering from surgery on intracranial arteries. This treatment led to regression of focal neurologic symptoms and improved cerebral circulation in 86.3% of patients who tolerated this procedure rather well. This approach was recommended as a method of choice for rehabilitative treatment during the postsurgical period. 7 references, 1 figure.

  11. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  12. Flow variation in Astore river under assumed glaciated extents due to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naeem, U.A.

    2012-01-01

    Various researchers have concluded the existence of many glaciers in doubt by the end of this century due to global warming phenomenon. The great Himalayas are also under such stress. The recent acceleration in rainfall pattern resulted the ever worst destruction due to floods (2010) in Pakistan. Many Watershed models, capable of incorporating the climate change scenarios have been developed in this regard to predict the future flows. But it is not easy to select the most appropriate model for a particular watershed to get the best results. In this regard. the paper is an effort where the analysis has been made on Astore Watershed, Pakistan, by considering the model results obtained from the three watershed models i.e. UBC Watershed Model, HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS. The results are obtained by considering different glaciated extents of 100%, 50% and 0% under future climate scenario (SRES A2), simulated by PRECIS Regional Climate Model for (2071-2100). For changed climate scenario, discharges for the simulations at 100% reduction in glaciated area were -72%, -15% and-46% for HBV-Met, HBV-PRECIS and UBC Watershed Model respectively. (author)

  13. Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

  14. Multiscale periodicities in aerosol optical depth over India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramachandran, S; Ghosh, Sayantan; Verma, Amit; Panigrahi, P K

    2013-01-01

    Aerosols exhibit periodic or cyclic variations depending on natural and anthropogenic sources over a region, which can become modulated by synoptic meteorological parameters such as winds, rainfall and relative humidity, and long-range transport. Information on periodicity and phase in aerosol properties assumes significance in prediction as well as examining the radiative and climate effects of aerosols including their association with changes in cloud properties and rainfall. Periodicity in aerosol optical depth, which is a columnar measure of aerosol distribution, is determined using continuous wavelet transform over 35 locations (capitals of states and union territories) in India. Continuous wavelet transform is used in the study because continuous wavelet transform is better suited to the extraction of the periodic and local modulations present in various frequency ranges when compared to Fourier transform. Monthly mean aerosol optical depths (AODs) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra satellite at 1° × 1° resolution from January 2001 to December 2012 are used. Annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) in AOD are evident in addition to the weak semi-annual (5–6 months) and quasi-triennial oscillations (∼40 months). The semi-annual and annual oscillations are consistent with the seasonal and yearly cycle of variations in AODs. The QBO type periodicity in AOD is found to be non-stationary while the annual period is stationary. The 40 month periodicity indicates the presence of long term correlations in AOD. The observed periodicities in MODIS Terra AODs are also evident in the ground-based AOD measurements made over Kanpur in the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The phase of the periodicity in AOD is stable in the mid-frequency range, while local disturbances in the high-frequency range and long term changes in the atmospheric composition give rise to unstable phases in the low-frequency range. The presence of phase

  15. GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: ADynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Makundi, Willy; Dale, Larry; Chan, Peter; Andrasko, Kenneth

    2005-03-22

    This paper reports on the global potential for carbonsequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbonemissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenariosfrom 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typicallyseen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector wasdisaggregated into tenregions, four largely temperate, developedregions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; andsix developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China,India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options -- long-and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation -- wereanalyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Keyfindings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbongain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78percent of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value ofcumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated witha decrease in deforestation.

  16. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  17. Palaeoclimate change during Glacial Periods: Evidence from Sri Lanka

    OpenAIRE

    J. Katupotha

    2013-01-01

    In the Earth’s history, there were five major glaciations, namely, Huronian (2,300 Ma),Cryogenianor Sturtian-Varangian(850-635 Ma), Andean-Saharan (460-430 Ma, Karoo (360-260 Ma) andthe Quaternary (2.58 Ma to Present) that occurred between 2,300 Ma and 0.0114 Ma. It is revealed thatGondwanaland emerged between the Huronian glaciation (2300-2100 Ma) in the Paleoproterozoic Eraand the Andean-Saharan glaciation (460-420 Ma) in the Early Paleozoic Era. During this time, mostcontinental land masse...

  18. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 20712100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  19. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  20. Agro-climate Projections for a Warming Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of greenhouse warming, agro-meteorological indices suggest widespread disruption to current food supply chains during the coming decades. Much of the western United States is projected to have more dry days, and the southern states are likely to experience greater plant heat stress. Considering these difficulties, it could become necessary for more northerly locations, including Alaska, to increase agricultural production to support local communities and offset supply shortages. This study employs multiple dynamically downscaled regional climate model simulations from the CMIP5 to investigate projected changes to agro-climate conditions across Alaska. The metric used here, the start-of-field operations index (SFO), identifies the date during which the sum of daily average temperature, starting from January 1st and excluding negative values, exceeds 200 ˚C. Using the current trajectory of greenhouse radiative forcing, RCP 8.5, this study indicates a doubling to 71,960 km2 of Alaska land area that meets the required thermal accumulation for crop production when comparing a historical period (1981-2010) to the future (2071-2100). The SFO shows a correlation coefficient of 0.91 with the independently produced green-up index for Fairbanks from 1981-2010. Among the land areas that currently reach the necessary thermal accumulation, there is a projected increase in growing season length (63-82 days), earlier date of last spring frost (28-48 days), and later date of first autumn frost (24-47 days) across the five USDA Census of Agriculture areas for Alaska. Both an average statewide decrease of annual frost days (71 fewer), and an increase in days with extreme warmth (28 more) are also projected.

  1. The 2010 Pakistan floods: high-resolution simulations with the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viterbo, Francesca; Parodi, Antonio; Molini, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa

    2013-04-01

    Estimating current and future water resources in high mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. In particular, the French-Italian project PAPRIKA is focused on two specific regions in the Hindu-Kush -- Himalaya -- Karakorum (HKKH)region: the Shigar basin in Pakistan, at the feet of K2, and the Khumbu valley in Nepal, at the feet of Mount Everest. In this framework, we use the WRF model to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions with high resolution in areas with extreme orographic slopes, comparing the model output with station and satellite data. Once validated the model, we shall run a set of three future time-slices at very high spatial resolution, in the periods 2046-2050, 2071-2075 and 2096-2100, nested in different climate change scenarios (EXtreme PREcipitation and Hydrological climate Scenario Simulations -EXPRESS-Hydro project). As a prelude to this study, here we discuss the simulation of specific, high-intensity rainfall events in this area. In this paper we focus on the 2010 Pakistan floods which began in late July 2010, producing heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan and affecting the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, with a death toll of about 2000 people. This event has been simulated with the WRF model (version 3.3.) in cloud-permitting mode (d01 14 km and d02 3.5 km): different convective closures and microphysics parameterization have been used. A deeper understanding of the processes responsible for this event has been gained through comparison with rainfall depth observations, radiosounding data and geostationary/polar satellite images.

  2. Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaninelli, Pablo G.; Menéndez, Claudio G.; Falco, Magdalena; López-Franca, Noelia; Carril, Andrea F.

    2018-05-01

    Changes between two time slices (1961-1990 and 2071-2100) in hydroclimatological conditions for South America have been examined using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual mean precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (EP) are jointly considered through the balances of land water and energy. Drying or wetting conditions, associated with changes in land water availability and atmospheric demand, are analysed in the Budyko space. The water supply limit (E limited by P) is exceeded at about 2% of the grid points, while the energy limit to evapotranspiration (E = EP) is overall valid. Most of the continent, except for the southeast and some coastal areas, presents a shift toward drier conditions related to a decrease in water availability (the evaporation rate E/P increases) and, mostly over much of Brazil, to an increase in the aridity index (V = EP/P). These changes suggest less humid conditions with decreasing surface runoff over Amazonia and the Brazilian Highlands. In contrast, Argentina and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are characterized by a tendency toward wetter conditions associated with an increase of water availability and a decrease of aridity index, primarily due to P increasing faster than both E and EP. This trend towards wetter soil conditions suggest that the chances of having larger periods of flooding and enhanced river discharges would increase over parts of southeastern South America. Interannual variability increases with V (for a given time slice) and with climate change (for a given aridity regimen). There are opposite interannual variability responses to the cliamte change in Argentina and Brazil by which the variability increases over the Brazilian Highlands and decreases in central-eastern Argentina.

  3. Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L. in Europe and their potential impact on human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Rasmussen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp. in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25% of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

  4. Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Muscarella, Robert; Borchsenius, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species ( Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

  5. Microprocessor controlled digital period meter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keefe, D.J.; McDowell, W.P.; Rusch, G.K.

    1980-01-01

    A microprocessor controlled digital period meter has been developed and tested operationally on a reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The principle of operation is the mathematical relationship between asymptotic periods and pulse counting circuitry. This relationship is used to calculate and display the reactor periods over a range of /plus or minus/1 second to /plus or minus/999 seconds. The time interval required to update each measurement automatically varies from 8 seconds at the lowest counting rates to 2 seconds at higher counting rates. The paper will describe hardware and software design details and show the advantages of this type of Period Meter over the conventional circuits. 1 ref

  6. Impact of Continuous Cropping on the Diurnal Range of Dew Point Temperature during the Foliar Expansion Period of Annual Crops on the Canadian Prairies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharat M. Shrestha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to increase our knowledge of the role of land use in changing the regional climate. This study asked, “Has the increase in continuous cropping over the past 50 years on the Canadian Prairies influenced the daily mean and range of morning dew point temperatures (Td during the foliar expansion period (from mid-June to mid-July of annual field crops?” We found that there has been a general increase in the decadal average of mean daily Td and in the range of morning Td from the 1960s to the 2000s. The increase in the observed range of Td between the daily minimum value, which typically occurs near sunrise, and the late morning peak was found to be related to the increase in annual crop acreage and consequent decrease in summerfallow area. The relationship was more significant in the subhumid climatic zone than in the semiarid climatic zone, and it was influenced by whether the region was experiencing either wet, normal, or dry conditions.

  7. Cost-resources trade-off analysis for long-range efficient plutonium consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Osamu; Nakano, Yasuyuki; Yasukawa, Shigeru

    1988-01-01

    JALTES-III, an analysis model using an optimization technique, is applied to the determination of major requirements for plutonium to serve as fuel for FRR on a paying basis and estimation of the possible reduction in natural uranium consumption. The analysis covers the period from 1970 to 2100. Optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle system is studied by using the following objective functions: overall system cost (COST), natural uranium consumption (NU) and trade-off function (COST + α·NU, where α is the premium related with the price of natural uranium). Assuming that there will be no escalation of the prices of system elements, competitive conditions for FBR are analyzed based on the effective price of natural uranium in relation with the above-mentioned premium: Po + (1 + D) t ·α, where Po is the basic price and D the discount rate. To minimize the term COST, FBR cannot be introduced and the natural uranium consumption will be 2,180,000 tons. To minimize NU, FBR should be introduced to the possible greatest degree, with the estimated natural uranium consumption being 900,000 tons. Analysis is also made of the relations of the introduction of FBRs with the effective price and total consumption of natural uranium. (Nogami, K.)

  8. Drought variability over Thessaly plain, Greece. Present and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Kapsomenakis, John; Dalezios, Nicolas R.; Kotsopoulos, Spyridon; Poulos, Serafim

    2015-04-01

    The diachronic variability of precipitation is of major scientific concern, because it is linked to water availability or deficiency on regional scale. The latter, resulted from a prolonged period of abnormally low precipitation or permanent absence of precipitation, is associated with dryness, having on one hand, a substantial impact on agricultural production and thus the society itself, and on the other hand, the redistribution of flora and fauna. In some cases, dryness drive climate refugees, and this is a great challenge - threat - that must be faced - mitigated - by stake holders in international organizations and fora. The Aridity Index (AI) measures the degree of dryness of the climate at a given region, and according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) it is defined as the ratio of precipitation to the potential evapotranspiration. In this study, we investigate the climate change impacts on AI over Thessaly plain, Greece. Thessaly, the largest plain and granary of Greece, includes a total area of 14,036 km2, which represents almost 11% of the Greek territory. Regarding the geomorphology, the ground is 50% mountainous-hilly and 50% flat, irrigated by Peneus, the third largest river in the country, which flows through the axis east-west. The assessment of AI was conducted utilizing daily evapotranspiration losses, based on the modified FAO-56 Penman-Monteith formula, and daily precipitation totals from a number of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), within the ENSEMBLE European Project. Further, the projected changes of AI between the period 1961-1990 (reference period) and the periods 2021-2050 (near future) and 2071-2100 (far future) along with the inter-model standard deviations are presented, under SRES A1B. The findings of the analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal changes of AI over Thessaly plain, focusing on their societal aspects. Acknowlegdements. This work is supported by the project AGROCLIMA (11SYN_3_1913), which is funded by

  9. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 20712100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  10. The cost of CO2 reduction. An application of the Global 2100 Model to Germany and France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfaffenberger, W.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on an application of the global 2100 model to Germany and France. The model is a five region world model which allows to simulate economic growth scenarios under different restrictions regarding the output of CO 2 . The basic production factors are capital plus labour and energy. Energy consists of electric and non-electric energy production. Electric energy is described in terms of different production technics whereas non-electric energy is described in terms of different resources. Energy and capital plus labour are substitutes as within each factor are capital and labour and electric and non-electric energy. Decision on the allocation of factors of production is made on the basis of prices: - endogeneous prices determined within the model and within a region, - exogeneous prices which are set by the user of the model and, - prices that are exogeneous to a region but internationally endogeneous. Exogeneous prices are set for coal and coal based technologies, renewable energies and advanced technologies of electricity production. The price of oil is internationally endogeneous in a certain way: by trial and error the international oil price has to be set in such a way that oil trade between exporting and importing countries will be balanced. Within the time horizon of the model a technological shift between fossil and non-fossil energy resources is possible. 1 ref., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  11. First 2 years of Atmospheric CO2 measurements in the Estany Llong plain (2100 masl, Parc Nacional d'Aigüestortes i Estany de Sant Maurici, Pyrenees, Catalonia, Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curcoll, Roger; Recolons, Montserrat; Font, Anna; Agraz, Laura; Parga, Elena; Bacardit, Montse; Camarero, Lluís.; Pueyo, Salva; Rodó, Xavier; Morguí, Josep Anton

    2010-05-01

    Since April 2009, air samples are being taken bi-weekly at 10 GMT in the plain of the Estany Llong at 2100 masl. Estany Llong air sampling site (ELL, 42°34'29''N 0°57'17''E) is a remote site situated in the SW principal valley of the Parc Nacional d'Aigüestortes i Estany de Sant Maurici. New Flask-sampling equipment for Remote Mountain Sites was developed by the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) to allow flask sampling in extreme weather conditions and carrying the sampling equipment for more than 10 km without damaging flasks. Dry Air analysis for CO2 are done at the Laboratory of IC3 using two coupled modified IRGA Licor-7000, where both pressure and flow are externally controlled. Far away from populated areas, ELL site acts as a remote site, but it is also responding to discrete events as snow melting, summer cattle breeding on pastures and trekking frequentation. Series of CO2 obtained are included as part of Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) at the Parc Nacional d'Aigüestortes i Estany de Sant Maurici. In the long term, these measurements show the mountain ecosystems contribution and geomorphologic influence on the CO2 budget of the air masses crossing a mountain range.

  12. Hardware test program for evaluation of baseline range/range rate sensor concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernic, E.

    1985-01-01

    The test program Phase II effort provides additional design information in terms of range and range rate (R/R) sensor performance when observing and tracking a typical spacecraft target. The target used in the test program was a one-third scale model of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) available at the MSFC test site where the tests were performed. A modified Bendix millimeter wave radar served as the R/R sensor test bed for evaluation of range and range rate tracking performance, and generation of radar signature characteristics of the spacecraft target. A summary of program test results and conclusions are presented along with detailed description of the Bendix test bed radar with accompaning instrumentation. The MSFC test site and facilities are described. The test procedures used to establish background levels, and the calibration procedures used in the range accuracy tests and RCS (radar cross section) signature measurements, are presented and a condensed version of the daily log kept during the 5 September through 17 September test period is also presented. The test program results are given starting with the RCS signature measurements, then continuing with range measurement accuracy test results and finally the range and range rate tracking accuracy test results.

  13. The influence of incommensurability on the long-range periodicity of the Pd(100)-(√{ 5 } ×√{ 5 })R27°-PdO(101)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipilin, Mikhail; Stierle, Andreas; Merte, Lindsay R.; Gustafson, Johan; Hejral, Uta; Martin, Natalia M.; Zhang, Chu; Franz, Dirk; Kilic, Volkan; Lundgren, Edvin

    2017-06-01

    The structural model of the (√{ 5 } ×√{ 5 })R27°-PdO(101) surface oxide grown on Pd(100) has been proposed and refined by a number of authors over more than a decade. In the current contribution we discuss the long-range periodicity of this structure arising along one of the crystallographic directions due to its incommensurability with the substrate. Analyzing the results of surface sensitive diffraction studies, we determined a slight distortion of the previously reported perfect (√{ 5 } ×√{ 5 })R27° surface oxide unit cell. Considering it, we were able to achieve both qualitatively and quantitatively better fit to the experimental diffraction data than it was possible for the perfect structure. Further, taking into account the experimentally obtained scanning tunneling microscopy data and closely examining high-resolution patterns recorded by means of high-energy surface X-ray diffraction, we developed a qualitative structural model based on a larger non-orthogonal surface unit cell to shed more light on the long-range order of the PdO(101) surface oxide. The model comprises a shift of the atoms of the PdO perpendicularly to the direction of the incommensurability to correct for it. This structural model reproduces the fine details of the high-resolution diffraction patterns and qualitatively explains the periodic stripes of structural distortion observed in the images recorded by a scanning tunneling microscope.

  14. "Possible impacts of climate change on the Danube river along the Iron Gate gorge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamovic, M.

    2009-04-01

    The research was dedicated to foreseeing the possible impacts of climate change on water resources in eastern part of Serbia, along the Danube catchment. The Danube basin is in the eastern section of the considered RCM ( Regional climate model). For this purposes, the RCM EBU-POM according to the IPCC scenario A1B, was used in its representation of the hydrological balance over the Danube river basin along Iron Gate gorge, for the time frame 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. The Danube's catchment encompasses continental climate, as it is land-dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. This part of Danube catchment is greatly affected by the Mediterranean climate, since the Danube runoff gives a relevant contribution of freshwater flux into the Mediterranean sea and it is dependent mostly on precipitated water of Mediterranean origin. On the other, the Dinaric-Balkan mountain chains in the west and the Carpathian mountain bow in the north and east, present distinctive morphological and climatic regions and barriers. The hydrological balance has been computed in two different, but in principle equivalent ways. The first approach, which has a more hydrological nuance, relies on establishing relationships between annual averages of the hydrological balance parameters (E, P, T) in order to get relevant coefficients. The second approach, which is more typically meteorological, relies on the calculation of the E for the time frame 2071-2100 by using the previous coefficients and getting runoff depth (h) and discharge (Q) as the final outputs. The results according to this model, show that the river flow of the Danube, in this part of its basin, will decrease over 50% with a great consequences to the dams Iron Gate I and II, their accumulations and ecosystems. Furthermore, if we take into account predictions made by IPCC which say that the south-east Europe will face temperature growth of 0.2 degrees in the next two decades for the range of SRES scenarios, makes the

  15. Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

    2017-04-01

    Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to

  16. Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Liu, S.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2012-01-01

    Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (20712100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

  17. Slow-light dynamics in nonlinear periodic waveguides couplers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sukhorukov, A.A.; Ha, S.; Powell, D.A.

    2009-01-01

    We predict pulse switching and reshaping through nonlinear mixing of two slow-light states with different phase velocities in the same frequency range, and report on the first experimental observation of slow-light tunneling between coupled periodic waveguides.......We predict pulse switching and reshaping through nonlinear mixing of two slow-light states with different phase velocities in the same frequency range, and report on the first experimental observation of slow-light tunneling between coupled periodic waveguides....

  18. Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

  19. Present and future responses of growing degree days for Crete Island in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-02-01

    Climate affects practically all the physiological processes that determine plant life (IPCC, 2014). A major challenge and objective of the agricultural science is to predict the occurrences of specific physical or biological events. For this reason, flower phenology has been widely used to study the flowering in plant species of economic interest, and in this concept, temperature and heat units have been widely accepted as the most important factors affecting processes leading to flowering. The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). Determination of GDD is useful for achieving a better understanding of the flowering season development in several plant species, and for forecasting when flowering will occur (Paparrizos and Matzarakis, 2017). Temperature and GDD represent two important spatially-dynamic climatic variables, as they both play vital roles in influencing forest development by directly affecting plant functions such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and plant transpiration. Understanding the spatial distribution of GDD is crucial to the practice of sustainable agricultural and forest management, as GDD relates to the integration of growth and provides precise point estimates (Hasan et al., 2007; Matzarakis et al., 2007). The aim of the current study was to estimate and map through downscaling spatial interpolation and multi-linear regression techniques, the future variation of GDD for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, under the A1B and B1 IPCC emission scenarios in relation with the reference periods for Crete Island in Greece. Future temperature data were obtained, validated and analysed from the ENSEMBLES European project. A combination of dynamical and statistical approach was conducted in order to downscale and perform the spatial interpolation of GDD through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that in the future, GDD will be increased and the existing

  20. A framework to assess the impacts of Climate Change for different hazards at local and regional scale through probabilistic multi-model approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercogliano, P.; Reder, A.; Rianna, G.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather events (EWEs) are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures (CIs) which can be dramatically affected by EWEs needing adaptation countermeasures againts changing climate conditions. In this work, we present the main results achieved in the framework of the FP7-European project INTACT aimed at analyzing the resilience of CIs against shocks and stresses due to the climate changes. To identify variations in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs) are defined for several case studies and different approaches are analyzed to obtain local climate projections. The different approaches, with increasing refinement depending on local information available and methodologies selected, are investigated considering raw versus bias corrected data and weighted or equiprobable ensemble mean projections given by the regional climate models within the Euro-CORDEX program. Specifically, this work focuses on two case studies selected from the five proposed within the INTACT project and for which local station data are available: • rainfall-induced landslide affecting Campania region (Southern Italy) with a special view on the Nocera municipality; • storms and heavy rainfall/winds in port of Rotterdam (Netherlands). In general, our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias-correction in the future projections. For landslides in Campania region, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected a generalized worsening of the safety conditions depending on the scenario (RCP4.5/8.5) and period (2011-2040/2041-2070/2071-2100) considered. For the port of Rotterdam, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected an increment in the intense events of daily and weekly precipitation, also in this case depending on the scenario and period considered. Considering framework, methodologies and results, the

  1. Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Borchsenius, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution...... models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe...... with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas...

  2. Pengetahuan Individu dan Pengembangan Kerja Tim Berpengaruh Terhadap Kinerja Perusahaan di Kawasan Industri MM2100 Cikarang, Bekasi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harapan Tarigan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Individual knowledge is capital of the foundation of each individual to be able to give the best contribution to the company. The capacity and the individual expertise can be necessarily distributed to the other individuals in the company to be able to maximize values for the company. Individual knowledge that is always distributed will form the capability of team and has the high similarity so as between the individual is easy to carry out work communication but also has an impact on work flexibility of the individual and finally can give an increase in the achievement of the company. According to a survey which was conducted by means of interviews and questionnaires to 93 manufacturing industry practitioners in this research and 90 data can be used in the analysis with response rate 97 %. Datawere analyzed with PLS (Partial Least Square. It is found that individual knowledge can influence and increase team work development. The effectiveness of the work of the employee in the process of work flexibility and does not have a direct impact on increasing the process of cooperation and communication. The development of the team work to the company MM2100 cannot increase cooperation and work communication and cannot increase the effectiveness of the team work, whereas work flexibility has an impact on cooperation and communication in working place and both of them are able to increase the company’s performance.

  3. Complementary periodic diffracting metallic nanohole and nanodipole arrays in the mid-infrared range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Yong-Hong; Zhang, Jia-Yu; Feng Ma, Hui; Yao, Jie; Wang, Xudong

    2012-10-01

    Metallic nanohole arrays and metallic nanodipole arrays are fabricated and experimentally characterized. A complementary response is observed in both transmission and reflection. For the metallic nanohole arrays, a peak (dip) in transmission (reflection) is observed at resonance whereas the metallic nanodipole arrays display a dip (peak) in transmission (reflection). The resonant frequency of both the metallic nanohole arrays and the nanodipole arrays depends on the dipole arm length, the incident angle, and the period. The resonant position of the nanohole arrays matches that of its complement, which means that Babinet's principle nearly holds for these structures in the mid-infrared region.

  4. Links between Synoptic Weather Types and Extreme Wet Events in the Arabian Peninsula (1960-2100)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-05-01

    In this work, an automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was applied to classify daily weather types in the Arabian Peninsula. The output catalogue included ten basic weather types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the peninsula (i.e., cyclonic, anticyclonic and directional). These large-scale patterns were first defined for the observed climate (1960-2013), allowing for an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the peninsula using rainfall data from 209 weather observatories. The same methodology was then applied to assess how the defined weather types will be presented in future climate simulations (under RCP45 and RCP85 emission scenarios) and to explore their probable dependency with rainfall characteristics. In this regard, daily simulated SLP derived from an ensemble of 12 climate models within the CMIP5 project were used for two future time-slices (2035-2060 and 2075-2100). Our findings indicate that the cyclonic (C) type represented the most frequent classification with 69.2% of days, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also found that the main circulation features influencing winter (spring) rainfall across the peninsula are the strong influence of the anticyclonic (easterly and southeasterly) air masses. Generally, the role of airflows originating from the Indian Ocean is larger than those of the Mediterranean and the Red Seas. The trend results of defined weather types show that the cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions tend to decrease (increase). This picture is likely to continue during the 21st century. The only exception corresponds to the summer season. Here, understanding the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula can be important for the understanding of climatic variability and thus developing circulation-based downscaling methods in this region.

  5. Measurement on the emission of charge exchange recombination in HT-6M tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Wei; Wan Baonian

    1999-01-01

    The distribution of C VI line (at 207.1 nm) and the time behavior has been measured with Optical Spectroscope Multichannel Analyzer and single channel near ultra-violet system in HT-6M Tokamak. The result of the analysis of line shape and the time behavior show that C VI line (at 207.1 nm) stemmed from the emission of charge exchange recombination processes

  6. Will the western Pacific subtropical high constantly intensify in the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanyan; Li, Xiaofan; Wang, Huijun

    2016-07-01

    The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) features lower-level southerlies or southwesterlies at its western and southern edges that transport amount of water vapor into East Asia, and it exerts a large influence on the East Asian summer climate. This paper evaluates the historical (1950-2005) spatial distribution and variability in the summer WPSH at 850 hPa using 28 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) relative to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. To avoid the artificial influence caused by global warming, this study primarily investigates the 850-hPa eddy geopotential height and the horizontal winds. The results show that most of the CMIP5 models reliably reproduce the geographical distribution and spatial variability in the WPSH. Four models (bcc-csm1-1, CESM1-CAM5, GFDL-ESM2G and inmcm4) generally perform well in simulating the eastward-recessed interdecadal variation in the WPSH during 1979-2005 relative to 1950-1978, with a significant cyclone anomaly appearing over the western Pacific and a decreasing trend in the WPSH index. Based on these four models, a multi-model ensemble projects a weaker WPSH during 2026-2070 relative to 2010-2025 and 2071-2100 under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario.

  7. The Occurrence of Cold Spells in the Alps Related to ClimateChange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Ki Park

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is not only a likely prospect for the end of this century, but it is already occurring. Part of the changes will include global warming and increasing temperature variability, both at global and regional scales. This increased variability was investigated in this paper from the point of view of the occurrence of cold spells in the Alps in the future climate (20712100, compared with the present climate (1961–1990. For this purpose, a regionalisation of the climate change effects was performed within the Alps. To avoid possible errors in the estimate of the 2m air temperature, the analysis was performed on the soil surface temperature. To get realistic values for this variable, a land surface scheme, UTOPIA, has been run on the selected domain, using the output of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3 simulations as the driving force. The results show that, in general, the number of cold breaks is decreasing over the Alps, due to the temperature increment. However, there are certain zones where the behaviour is more complicated. The analysis of the model output also allowed a relationship to be found between the number of cold breaks and their duration. The significance of these results over the whole area was assessed.

  8. Volume higher; spot price ranges widen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October 1994 uranium market summary. During this reporting period, volume on the spot concentrates market doubled. Twelve deals took place: three in the spot concentrates market, one in the medium and long-term market, four in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. The restricted price range widened due to higher prices at the top end of the range, while the unrestricted price range widened because of lower prices at the bottom end. Spot conversion prices were higher, and enrichment prices were unchanged

  9. Real space method of powder diffraction for non-periodic and nearly periodic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egami, T.; Toby, B.H.; Dmowski, W.; Janot, C.; Jorgensen, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    The use of high-energy neutrons from pulsed or hot sources allows the method of atomic pair distribution analysis to be applied to the structural determination of crystalline as well as amorphous solids. This method complements the standard crystallographic methods in studying non-periodic aspects of solids with or without long range order

  10. Long-range correlations and asymmetry in the Bitcoin market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.; Ibarra-Valdez, C.

    2018-02-01

    This work studies long-range correlations and informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market for the period from June 30, 2013 to June 3rd, 2017. To this end, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was implemented over sliding windows to estimate long-range correlations for price returns. It was found that the Bitcoin market exhibits periods of efficiency alternating with periods where the price dynamics are driven by anti-persistence. The pattern is replicated by prices samples at day, hour and second frequencies. The Bitcoin market also presents asymmetric correlations with respect to increasing and decreasing price trending, with the former trend linked to anti-persistence of returns dynamics.

  11. Diurnal variation in the biliary excretion of flomoxef in patients with percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hishikawa, S; Kobayashi, E; Sugimoto , K; Miyata, M; Fujimura, A

    2001-07-01

    To examine diurnal variation in biliary excretion of flomoxef. Flomoxef (1 g) was injected intravenously in eight patients with percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography with drainage at 09.00 h and 21.00 h by a cross-over design with a 36 h washout period. Drained biliary fluid was collected for 6 h after each dosing. These patients still had mild to moderate hepatic dysfunction. Bile flow and bile acid excretion for 6 h after dosing did not differ significantly between the 09.00 h and 21.00 h treatments. The maximum concentration of biliary flomoxef was significantly greater and its total excretion for 6 h tended to be greater after the 21.00 h dose [maximum concentration (microg ml(-1)): 34.2 +/- 29.9 (09.00 h dose) vs 43.5 +/- 28.3 (21.00 h dose) (95% confidence interval for difference: 2.6 approximately 15.9, P = 0.013); total excretion (mg 6 h(-1)): 1.4 +/- 1.3 (09.00 h dose) vs 1.6 +/- 1.2 (21.00 h dose) (95% confidence interval for difference: -26.8, 313.7, P = 0.087)]. The period that biliary flomoxef remained above the minimal inhibitory concentration did not differ significantly between the two treatment times. These results suggest that biliary excretion of flomoxef shows diurnal variation. However, as the difference was relatively small, flomoxef could be given at any time of day without any dosage adjustments.

  12. Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ayllón

    populations may become extinct by 2100, depicting the gloomy fate of thermally-sensitive species occurring at thermal range margins under limited potential for adaptation and dispersal.

  13. Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2018-03-01

    In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

  14. Long-period and short-period variations of ionospheric parameters studied from complex observations performed on Cuba

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laso, B; Lobachevskii, L A; Potapova, N I; Freizon, I A; Shapiro, B S

    1980-09-01

    Cuban data from 1978 are used to study long-period (i.e., diurnal) variations of Doppler shift on a 3000 km path at frequencies of 10 and 15 MHz these variations are related to variations of parameters on the ionospheric path. Short-period variations were also studied on the basis of Doppler shift data and vertical sounding data in the 0.000111-0.00113 Hz frequency range. The relation between the observed variations and internal gravity waves are discussed.

  15. Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

    2012-07-07

    Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies.

  16. Real-time method of powder diffraction for non-periodic and nearly periodic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egami, T.; Toby, B.H.; Dmowski, T.W.; Jorgensen, J.D.

    1989-12-01

    The use of high-energy neutrons from pulsed or hot sources allows the method of atomic pair distribution analysis to be applied to the structural determination of crystalline as well as amorphous solids. This method complements the standard crystallographic methods in studying non-periodic aspects of solids with or without long range order. 14 refs., 3 figs

  17. Climate and Landuse Change Impacts on hydrological processes and soil erosion in a dry Mediterranean agro-forested catchment, southern Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Juliana; Nunes, João Pedro; Sampaio, Elsa; Moreira, Madalena; Lima, Júlio; Jacinto, Rita; Corte-Real, João

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to increase aridity in the Mediterranean rim of Europe, due to decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures. This could lead to impacts on soil erosion, since the lower rainfall could nevertheless become concentrated in higher intensity events during the wet season, while the more arid conditions could reduce vegetation cover, also due to climate-induced land-use changes. In consequence, there is an interest in understanding how climate change will affect the interaction between the timing of extreme rainfall events, hydrological processes, vegetation growth, soil cover and soil erosion. To study this issue, the SWAT eco-hydrological model was applied to Guadalupe, an agro-forested catchment (446 ha) located close to the city of Évora, with a Mediterranean inland climate. The landcover is a mix of dispersed cork oak forests ("montado"), annual crops, and agroforesty regions where the cork oaks are associated with crops or pasture; this land cover is representative of the dry regions of southern Portugal and Spain. The catchment has been instrumented since 2011 with a hydrometric station (water discharge and suspended sediment concentration data) and a soil moisture measurement station. There is also observed data of actual evapotranspiration, LAI and biomass production (in pasture; from 1999 and 2008) and runoff data and sediment yield measured in six 16m2 plots. Water balance, vegetation growth, soil erosion and sediment yield in SWAT was calibrated with this dataset. This work will present the dataset, modeling process, results for impacts of climate and land-use change scenarios for vegetation growth, soil erosion and sediment export, considering the climate and socio-economic scenarios A1b and B1 (based on SRES storylines). Climate scenarios were created by statistical downscaling from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2071-2100 (30 years). The reference period was 1971-2000 (30 years). The SWAT model was used to

  18. Transient periodic x-ray source in Taurus, A0535+26

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradt, H.; Mayer, W.; Buff, J.; Clark, G.W.; Doxsey, R.; Hearn, D.; Jernigan, G.; Joss, P.C.; Laufer, B.; Lewin, W.; Li, F.; Matilsky, T.; McClintock, J.; Primini, F.; Rappaport, S.; Schnopper, H.

    1976-01-01

    Light curves of the 104 s periodicity in the transient X-ray source in Taurus (A0535+26) are presented for six energy intervals in the range 1-35 keV for the period 1975 May 30-June 2. The pulse structure ranges from an apparently simple modulation at higher energies to a very complex pattern at lower energies. No Doppler shift is observed in the 104 s pulse period during the three days of observations. This places severe constraints upon possible binary orbital motion. Upper limits on the power at other periodicities are approximately-less-than10 percent for 2 ms-2s and approximately-less-than2 percent for 2 s-2000 s

  19. THE SMALL-SCALE PHYSICAL STRUCTURE AND FRAGMENTATION DIFFERENCE OF TWO EMBEDDED INTERMEDIATE-MASS PROTOSTARS IN ORION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Kempen, T. A.; Longmore, S. N.; Johnstone, D.; Pillai, T.; Fuente, A.

    2012-01-01

    Intermediate-mass (IM) protostars, the bridge between the very common solar-like protostars and the more massive, but rarer, O and B stars, can only be studied at high physical spatial resolutions in a handful of clouds. In this paper, we present and analyze the continuum results from an observing campaign at the Submillimeter Array (SMA) targeting two well-studied IM protostars in Orion, NGC 2071 and L1641 S3 MMS 1. The extended SMA (eSMA) probes structure at angular resolutions up to 0.''2, revealing protostellar disks on scales of ∼200 AU. Continuum flux measurements on these scales indicate that a significant amount of mass, a few tens of M ☉ , is present. Envelope, stellar, and disk masses are derived using compact, extended, and eSMA configurations and compared against spectral energy distribution fitting models. We hypothesize that fragmentation into three components occurred within NGC 2071 at an early time, when the envelopes were less than 10% of their current masses, e.g., ☉ . No fragmentation occurred for L1641 S3 MMS 1. For NGC 2071, evidence is given that the bulk of the envelope material currently around each source was accreted after the initial fragmentation. In addition, about 30% of the total core mass is not yet associated to one of the three sources. A global accretion model is favored and a potential accretion history of NGC 2071 is presented. It is shown that the relatively low level of fragmentation in NGC 2071 was stifled compared to the expected fragmentation from a Jeans argument. Similarly, the lack of fragmentation in L1641 S3 MMS 1 is likely due to similar arguments.

  20. Different methods for the estimation of available water resources in the future under the influence of climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majkic-Dursun, B.; Boreli-Zdravkovic, Dj.; Djuric, D.

    2012-04-01

    parameters, precipitation and temperature, were calculated using three climate models: CNRM, ICTP and UCLM. Calculated data for future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 were analyzed and compared with the respective data for basic period 1961-1990. Estimation of available water resources for Belgrade alluvium was performed using calibrated GW model. Empirical formulae was developed for the estimation of pET (based on T and P) while the optimal groundwater level and fluctuation in hinterland was used as ecological criteria. Future discharge of Nisava River was estimated using VNC model, based on non-linear standardized correlation method. Ecological criteria was established based on the requirements of Serbian Water Law as minimum sustainable flow (calculated as the minimum 95% average monthly discharge of Nisava River) which must be provided downstream from a surface water intake. Key words: climate change, available water resources, alluvial water sources, A1B scenario

  1. Mechanical response of AA7075 aluminum alloy over a wide range of temperatures and strain rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Z.; Cassada, W.A. [Reynolds Metals Co., Chester, VA (United States). Corp. Res. and Dev.; Cady, C.M.; Gray, G.T. III

    2000-07-01

    The influence of temperature and strain rate on the flow stress and work hardening rate of a 7075 aluminum alloy was studied under compressive loading over the temperature range from 23 C to 470 C, and strain rates from 0.001 s{sup -1} and 2100 s{sup -1}. While the temperature dependence of the flow stress was found to be most significant at temperatures below 300 C, the strain rate dependence of the flow stress was found to be pronounced at temperatures above 23 C. Concurrently, the work hardening rate decreases significantly with increasing temperature between 23 C and 300 C and increases slightly at higher temperatures. The minimum work hardening rate is observed to occur at temperatures between 200 C and 300 C and shift to higher temperatures with increasing strain rate. A negative strain rate dependence of work hardening rate was observed at 23 C, although a positive strain rate dependence of work hardening rate occurs at higher temperatures. Analysis of the experimental data revealed three deformation regimes. (orig.)

  2. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-09-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30%) and interannual variability is

  3. Seismic isolation of two dimensional periodic foundations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Y.; Mo, Y. L.; Laskar, A.; Cheng, Z.; Shi, Z.; Menq, F.; Tang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Phononic crystal is now used to control acoustic waves. When the crystal goes to a larger scale, it is called periodic structure. The band gaps of the periodic structure can be reduced to range from 0.5 Hz to 50 Hz. Therefore, the periodic structure has potential applications in seismic wave reflection. In civil engineering, the periodic structure can be served as the foundation of upper structure. This type of foundation consisting of periodic structure is called periodic foundation. When the frequency of seismic waves falls into the band gaps of the periodic foundation, the seismic wave can be blocked. Field experiments of a scaled two dimensional (2D) periodic foundation with an upper structure were conducted to verify the band gap effects. Test results showed the 2D periodic foundation can effectively reduce the response of the upper structure for excitations with frequencies within the frequency band gaps. When the experimental and the finite element analysis results are compared, they agree well with each other, indicating that 2D periodic foundation is a feasible way of reducing seismic vibrations.

  4. Prediction of Vibration Transmission within Periodic Bar Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Domadiya, Parthkumar Gandalal; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard; Sorokin, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    The present analysis focuses on vibration transmission within semi-infinite bar structure. The bar is consisting of two different materials in a periodic manner. A periodic bar model is generated using two various methods: The Finite Element method (FEM) and a Floquet theory approach. A parameter...... study is carried out regarding the influence of the number of periods at various frequencies within a semi-infinite bar, stop bands are illustrated at certain periodic intervals within the structure. The computations are carried out in frequency domain in the range below 500 Hz. Results from both...

  5. Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

    2017-07-01

    How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will

  6. Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  7. 143 GHz BRIGHTNESS MEASUREMENTS OF URANUS, NEPTUNE, AND OTHER SECONDARY CALIBRATORS WITH BOLOCAM BETWEEN 2003 AND 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayers, J.; Czakon, N. G.; Golwala, S. R.

    2012-01-01

    Bolocam began collecting science data in 2003 as the long-wavelength imaging camera at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory. The planets, along with a handful of secondary calibrators, have been used to determine the flux calibration for all of the data collected with Bolocam. Uranus and Neptune stand out as the only two planets that are bright enough to be seen with high signal-to-noise in short integrations without saturating the standard Bolocam readout electronics. By analyzing all of the 143 GHz observations made with Bolocam between 2003 and 2010, we find that the brightness ratio of Uranus to Neptune is 1.027 ± 0.006, with no evidence for any variations over that period. Including previously published results at ≅ 150 GHz, we find a brightness ratio of 1.029 ± 0.006 with no evidence for time variability over the period 1983-2010. Additionally, we find no evidence for time variability in the brightness ratio of either Uranus or Neptune to the ultracompact H II region G34.3 or the protostellar source NGC 2071IR. Using recently published Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe results we constrain the absolute 143 GHz brightness of both Uranus and Neptune to ≅ 3%. Finally, we present ≅ 3% absolute 143 GHz peak flux density values for the ultracompact H II regions G34.3 and K3-50A and the protostellar source NGC 2071IR.

  8. Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia; Spada, Giorgio

    2017-12-01

    As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ˜ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies

  9. Periodic and secular changes in SS 433

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, G.W.; Newsom, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    The recent history of SS 433 is reviewed with particular attention being given to the discovery of the periodic phenomena displayed by this object. Several periods ranging from days to months are established as being present in the spectrum of the ''moving'' lines as well as in other aspects of the emission from the object. In addition evidence for secular change in some of the defining parameters of the system is presented. Although these secular changes may eventually prove to be periodic on a rather long time scale, some interpretation of both the periodic and secular phenomena is possible. It is shown that it is possible to interpret all the known periodic phenomena in terms of a processing object responding to the time-varying torques that one would expect in a binary system

  10. Lineages that cheat death: surviving the squeeze on range size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Anthony

    2010-08-01

    Evolutionary lineages differ greatly in their net diversification rates, implying differences in rates of extinction and speciation. Lineages with a large average range size are commonly thought to have reduced extinction risk (although linking low extinction to high diversification has proved elusive). However, climate change cycles can dramatically reduce the geographic range size of even widespread species, and so most species may be periodically reduced to a few populations in small, isolated remnants of their range. This implies a high and synchronous extinction risk for the remaining populations, and so for the species as a whole. Species will only survive through these periods if their individual populations are "threat tolerant," somehow able to persist in spite of the high extinction risk. Threat tolerance is conceptually different from classic extinction resistance, and could theoretically have a stronger relationship with diversification rates than classic resistance. I demonstrate that relationship using primates as a model. I also show that narrowly distributed species have higher threat tolerance than widespread ones, confirming that tolerance is an unusual form of resistance. Extinction resistance may therefore operate by different rules during periods of adverse global environmental change than in more benign periods.

  11. Subvisible (2-100 μm) Particle Analysis During Biotherapeutic Drug Product Development: Part 1, Considerations and Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narhi, Linda O; Corvari, Vincent; Ripple, Dean C; Afonina, Nataliya; Cecchini, Irene; Defelippis, Michael R; Garidel, Patrick; Herre, Andrea; Koulov, Atanas V; Lubiniecki, Tony; Mahler, Hanns-Christian; Mangiagalli, Paolo; Nesta, Douglas; Perez-Ramirez, Bernardo; Polozova, Alla; Rossi, Mara; Schmidt, Roland; Simler, Robert; Singh, Satish; Spitznagel, Thomas M; Weiskopf, Andrew; Wuchner, Klaus

    2015-06-01

    Measurement and characterization of subvisible particles (defined here as those ranging in size from 2 to 100 μm), including proteinaceous and nonproteinaceous particles, is an important part of every stage of protein therapeutic development. The tools used and the ways in which the information generated is applied depends on the particular product development stage, the amount of material, and the time available for the analysis. In order to compare results across laboratories and products, it is important to harmonize nomenclature, experimental protocols, data analysis, and interpretation. In this manuscript on perspectives on subvisible particles in protein therapeutic drug products, we focus on the tools available for detection, characterization, and quantification of these species and the strategy around their application. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

  12. THE SMALL-SCALE PHYSICAL STRUCTURE AND FRAGMENTATION DIFFERENCE OF TWO EMBEDDED INTERMEDIATE-MASS PROTOSTARS IN ORION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Kempen, T. A. [Joint ALMA Offices, Alonso de Cordova 3107, Vitacura, Santiago (Chile); Longmore, S. N. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Johnstone, D. [National Research Council Canada, Herzberg Institute for Astronomy, 5071 West Saanich Road, Victoria, BC (Canada); Pillai, T. [Caltech, MC 249-17, 1200 East California Blvd, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Fuente, A., E-mail: tkempen@alma.cl [Observatorio Astronomico Nacional (OAN), Apdo. 112, E-28803 Alcala de Henares, Madrid (Spain)

    2012-06-01

    Intermediate-mass (IM) protostars, the bridge between the very common solar-like protostars and the more massive, but rarer, O and B stars, can only be studied at high physical spatial resolutions in a handful of clouds. In this paper, we present and analyze the continuum results from an observing campaign at the Submillimeter Array (SMA) targeting two well-studied IM protostars in Orion, NGC 2071 and L1641 S3 MMS 1. The extended SMA (eSMA) probes structure at angular resolutions up to 0.''2, revealing protostellar disks on scales of {approx}200 AU. Continuum flux measurements on these scales indicate that a significant amount of mass, a few tens of M{sub Sun }, is present. Envelope, stellar, and disk masses are derived using compact, extended, and eSMA configurations and compared against spectral energy distribution fitting models. We hypothesize that fragmentation into three components occurred within NGC 2071 at an early time, when the envelopes were less than 10% of their current masses, e.g., <0.5 M{sub Sun }. No fragmentation occurred for L1641 S3 MMS 1. For NGC 2071, evidence is given that the bulk of the envelope material currently around each source was accreted after the initial fragmentation. In addition, about 30% of the total core mass is not yet associated to one of the three sources. A global accretion model is favored and a potential accretion history of NGC 2071 is presented. It is shown that the relatively low level of fragmentation in NGC 2071 was stifled compared to the expected fragmentation from a Jeans argument. Similarly, the lack of fragmentation in L1641 S3 MMS 1 is likely due to similar arguments.

  13. Extended Range Intercept Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-01

    1988). Desert bighorn ewes with lambs show a stronger response than do groups of only rams, only ewes, or mixed groups of adults (Miller and Smith...1985). While all startle events may affect desert bighorns, those occurring during the lambing period (February-April) would represent the highest...35807 U.S. Army Pueblo Depot Activity SDSTE-PU-EE Pueblo, CO 81001-5000 U.S. Army White Sands Missile Range STEWS -EL-N White Sands, NM 88002-5076

  14. Photometric observations of V470 Cygni (HD 228911)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebbighausen, E.G.; Lester, D.; Stearns, S.; Straton, P; Sykes, M.

    1975-01-01

    Previous photometric observations of this type B2 spectroscopic binary with a 1.87d period have shown small but not well-defined light variations suggesting that it is an eclipsing binary with a rather small orbital inclination. In the summer of 1974 the authors obtained photoelectrically 2060 individual V observations and 2100 B observations of V470 Cygni at the Pine Mountain Observatory of the University of Oregon. The total light range in both colors is nearly 0.02m and the form of the light curve suggests that this object is an ellipsoidal binary. A new epoch of primary minimum and period are derived. All of the data combined are insufficient to confirm Pearce's suggestion of apsidal motion

  15. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Guadalquivir River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeste Donaire, P.; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, M.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change has lead to a decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature in the Mediterranean Basin during the last fifty years. These changes will be more intense over the course of the 21thcentury according to global climate projections. As a consequence, water resources are expected to decrease, particularly in the Guadalquivir River Basin. This study focuses on the hydrological response of the Guadalquivir River Basin to the climate change. For this end, firstly, the implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in the Basin was carried out. The VIC model was calibrated with a dataset of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow for the period 1990-2000. Precipitation and temperature data were extracted from SPAIN02, a dataset that covers the Peninsular Spain at 0.11º of spatial resolution. Streamflow data were gathered for a representative subset of gauging stations in the basin. These data were provided by the Spanish Center for Public Work Experimentation and Study (CEDEX). Subsequently, the VIC model was validated for the period 2000-2005 in order to verify that the model outputs fit well with the observational data. After the validation of the VIC model for present climate, secondly, the effect of climate change on the Guadalquivir River Basin will be analyzed by developing several simulations of the streamflow for future climate. Precipitation and temperature data will be obtained in this case from future projections coming from high resolution (at 0.088º) simulations carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the Iberian Peninsula. These last simulations will be driven under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the periods 2021-50 and 2071-2100. The first results of this work show that the VIC model outputs are in good agreement with the observed streamflow for both the calibration and validation periods. In the context of climate

  16. Three dimensional periodic foundations for base seismic isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Y; Mo, Y L; Cheng, Z; Shi, Z; Menq, F; Tang, Y

    2015-01-01

    Based on the concept of phononic crystals, periodic foundations made of periodic materials are investigated in this paper. The periodic foundations can provide low frequency band gaps, which cover the main frequency ranges of seismic waves. Therefore, the periodic foundations are able to protect the upper structures during earthquake events. In this paper, the basic theory of three dimensional periodic foundations is studied and the finite element method was used to conduct the sensitivity study. A simplified three-dimensional periodic foundation with a superstructure was tested in the field and the feasibility of three dimensional periodic foundations was proved. The test results showed that the response of the upper structure with the three dimensional periodic foundation was reduced under excitation waves with the main frequency falling in the attenuation zones. The finite element analysis results are consistent with the experimental data, indicating that three dimensional periodic foundations are a feasible way of reducing seismic vibrations. (paper)

  17. Microstructure Changes of ZrO{sub 2}/W/Mo Coating Layers on Graphite after Heat Treatment at 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Gyu Baek; Choe, Kyeong Hwan; Cho, Gue Serb [Korea Institute of Industrial Technology, Incheon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sang Sub [Inha University, Incheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-08-15

    A tungsten coating was deposited onto a graphite substrate using the atmospheric plasma spraying (APS) technique. In order to increase the adhesion strength between the metallic tungsten(W) and graphite, a molybdenum (Mo) interlayer was pre-deposited onto the graphite surface by utilizing the APS technique. Also, after deposition of a APS-W coating, a zirconia (ZrO{sub 2}) was deposited onto the W coating layer. For the APS process, argon and helium were used as the plasma-forming gases, and argon was used as the shield gas to protect the plasma from oxidation. After the APS coating process, heat exposure treatment was performed at 2100 ℃ for 360 h within a sapphire single crystal-growing furnace in order to evaluate the thermal stability of the coatings. After heat treatment, the ZrO{sub 2}/W/Mo coating layers were bound with the graphite without any peeling off. The microvickers hardness of the APS-W coating layer was increased after heat treatment due to the formation of carbides. Also, carbide phases such as Mo{sub 2}C, WC, ZrC and Mo{sub 3}C{sub 2} were identified by XRD diffraction and EDS analysis, by analyzing the depths below the coating surface. It was considered that the Mo interlayer served as a good buffer layer between the APS-W coating and the graphite after the heat exposure treatment because the lattice structure of the molybdenum carbide was similar to that of the graphite.

  18. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  19. Changing transport and traffic risks - a CliPDaR spin off

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Gringinger, Julia; Andre, Konrad; Chimani, Barbara; Hollosi, Brigitta; Mlinar, Christian; Gschier, Roland; Fuchs, Tobias; Auer, Inge

    2014-05-01

    The delivery of goods, people's mobility, the supply with services and the free accessibility of vital resources, as hospitals for instance, are indispensable for our society. All that is possible through functioning transport networks. Globalisation, changes in technology, demography and climate as well as the strong increase in freight traffic are fundamental challenges to the reinforcement of systems in place and the planning of future transport corridors. As for climate change we present an approach to estimate the rate and amount of change than has to be managed in the future by the transport authorities. This assessment is based on combinations of weather elements that potentially harm the transport system. Such combinations (called climate indices, CIs) are evaluated for the past and the future. The evaluation of the past is done by the use of observations; the assessment of the future is based on ensembles of scenario projections, since a single projection does not allow deriving uncertainty based statements. Landslides originating from long term rain events may serve as an example. In 2013 a number of landslides caused substantial destruction and downtimes in turn. The perhaps most prominent example took place in Tirol where the Felbertauern road was hit twice by landslides and the avalanche gallery was destroyed. In our presentation at the EGU we will show changes in CIs that are related to landslides, rutting, frost thaw cycles (e.g. responsible for falling roks) and heavy precipitation events (potentially important for the flooding of transport assets as tunnels and drainage systems or dangerous to bridges). These changes refer to two future periods: the near future (2021-2050) and the remote future (2071-2100); and they refer to the climatological normal period (19961-1990). Referring to landslides there are regions showing no change and other areas with substantial increases, which predominantly occur close to topographic complex terrain. Such regions

  20. Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

    2015-09-14

    Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

  1. Scattering analysis of periodic structures using finite-difference time-domain

    CERN Document Server

    ElMahgoub, Khaled; Elsherbeni, Atef Z

    2012-01-01

    Periodic structures are of great importance in electromagnetics due to their wide range of applications such as frequency selective surfaces (FSS), electromagnetic band gap (EBG) structures, periodic absorbers, meta-materials, and many others. The aim of this book is to develop efficient computational algorithms to analyze the scattering properties of various electromagnetic periodic structures using the finite-difference time-domain periodic boundary condition (FDTD/PBC) method. A new FDTD/PBC-based algorithm is introduced to analyze general skewed grid periodic structures while another algor

  2. Heart rate, multiple body temperature, long-range and long-life telemetry system for free-ranging animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, G. F.; Westbrook, R. M.; Fryer, T. B.

    1980-01-01

    The design details and rationale for a versatile, long-range, long-life telemetry data acquisition system for heart rates and body temperatures at multiple locations from free-ranging animals are presented. The design comprises an implantable transmitter for short to medium range transmission, a receiver retransmitter collar to be worn for long-range transmission, and a signal conditioner interface circuit to assist in signal discrimination and demodulation of receiver or tape-recorded audio outputs. Implanted electrodes are used to obtain an ECG, from which R-wave characteristics are selected to trigger a short RF pulse. Pulses carrying heart rate information are interrupted periodically by a series of pulse interval modulated RF pulses conveying temperature information sensed at desired locations by thermistors. Pulse duration and pulse sequencing are used to discriminate between heart rate and temperature pulses as well as radio frequency interference. The implanted transmitter may be used alone for medium and short-range tracking, or with a receiver-transmitter collar that employs commercial tracking equipment for transmissions of up to 12 km. A system prototype has been tested on a dog.

  3. Comparative study of optical properties of the one-dimensional multilayer Period-Doubling and Thue-Morse quasi-periodic photonic crystals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Bouazzi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The last decades have witnessed the growing interest in the use of photonic crystal as a new material that can be used to control electromagnetic wave. Actually, not only the periodic structures but also the quasi-periodic systems have become significant structures of photonic crystals. This work deals with optical properties of dielectric Thue-Morse multilayer and Period-Doubling multilayer. We use the so-called Transfer Matrix Method (TMM to determine the transmission spectra of the structures. Based on the representation of the transmittance spectra in the visible range a comparative analysis depending on the iteration number, number of layers and incidence angle is presented.

  4. Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

    2007-01-01

    This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W r ) and biome-level water limitation (L TA ), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L TA is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L TA , ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L TA tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L TA suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L TA would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative

  5. Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2007-02-15

    This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W{sub r} ) and biome-level water limitation (L{sub TA}), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L{sub TA} is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L{sub TA}, ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L{sub TA} tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L{sub TA} suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L{sub TA} would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative.

  6. Simulations of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stendel, M.; Schmith, T.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.

    2001-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model to study the time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons and aerosols according to the new IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 has been used. The results of these experiments are compared to an unforced 300-year control experiment. The changes in the last three decades of the scenario simulations (2071-2100) are furthermore compared to the simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990). In accordance with previous experiments we find that greenhouse warming is reduced when aerosol effects are considered. Sulfur emissions, however, are lower than in the IS92a scenario. Consequently, the greenhouse warming effect, which leads to a bigger temperature increase than in the GSDIO experiment can outweigh the aerosol cooling effect. The result shows that there still are serious difficulties and uncertainties in this type of model simulation. Those are partially due to oversimplifications in the model, concerning the radiative properties of aerosols in particular, and therefore the indirect aerosol effect. Another inherent problem, however, is the uncertainty in the scenarios themselves. This is the case for short-lived substances with an inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution, such as aerosols. Therefore, on a decadal horizon, changes in the emissions of those substance can exert a significant effect on anthropogenic climate change. (LN)

  7. Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas B Fortini

    Full Text Available Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows. Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

  8. Periodic variations of cosmic ray intensity with period of -37 minute observed on April 25th, 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Takasuke; Kato, Masahito; Takei, Ryoji; Tamai, Eiji

    1985-01-01

    Existence of cosmic ray variation with period ranging from a few hours to seconds during geomagnetically quiet and perturb period at different altitude with different detector, was reported previously. As short period variation is thought to be transient with small amplitude fluctuation, consequently high counting rate of cosmic ray and appropriate method for finding short periodicity, is required. Further, there is similar phenomenon in which short variation, followed by storm sudden commencement (SSC) and/or Forbush decrease (FD) occurs. In 1979, Kato et al. used 3 minutes data at Mt. Norikura and obtained -6 x 10 5 count/min, and tried to find out short periodicity of cosmic ray around SSC, but no clear conclusion was obtained. T. Sakai, et al., used plastic scintillation counter of Akeno observatory, following their preceding work. The counter has an area about 154 m 2 . High counting rate of -2 x 10 6 counts/min. was observed at Akeno which revealed the existence of -37 minute periodical oscillation with an amplitude of 0.1 % in p-p during the time period of 1300 - 1900 UT on April 25th 1984, one day before FD. Observed periodical oscillation of cosmic ray counting rate may be the result of the changes in magnetic field. But, it must be noted that there remains possibility of oscillation of cosmic ray intensity in the interplanetary space during the period, independent of geomagnetic field. (author)

  9. Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, D.

    2008-12-01

    The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional

  10. Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

    2017-07-05

    Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

  11. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

  12. Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

    2018-02-01

    Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

  13. Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Sanchez Martinez

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. Methods After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5 and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, and in a past time period (1986–2005 to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Results Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986–2005, heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026–2045, and more than quadruple in 2081–2100. When considering the impact in 2081–2100, sampling variability around the heat–mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

  14. Resonant Quasi-Optical Systems with Multi-Row Periodic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oleksandr, Rybalko; Rybalko, Yu A.; Buriak, I. A.

    2017-01-01

    Selective properties of resonant quasi-optical systems with periodical multi-row structures in millimeter wavelength range are described. The possibility of selection fluctuations in the volume of open resonator using double-row periodic elements was shown in the experiment at 70-80 GHz. Advantages...... and possibility of control the energy characteristics of such structures are also described. The obtained experimental data is used to confirm the results of computational analysis previously described in the literature. Implementation of resonant quasi-optical systems with multi-row periodic structures...

  15. Reduction of Friction of Metals Using Laser-Induced Periodic Surface Nanostructures

    OpenAIRE

    Zhuo Wang; Quanzhong Zhao; Chengwei Wang

    2015-01-01

    We report on the effect of femtosecond-laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSS) on the tribological properties of stainless steel. Uniform periodic nanostructures were produced on AISI 304L (American Iron and Steel Institute steel grade) steel surfaces using an 800-nm femtosecond laser. The spatial periods of LIPSS measured by field emission scanning electron microscopy ranged from 530 to 570 nm. The tribological properties of smooth and textured surfaces with periodic nanostructures...

  16. Gestation period and twinning in chimpanzees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    PEACOCK, L J; ROGERS, C M

    1959-04-10

    The length of the gestation period in 118 births in a colony of chimpanzees was found to be 226.8 days, with a standard deviation of 13.3 and a range of 196 to 260 days. Six pairs of twins were born in 120 parturitions; thus the apparent twinning rate is higher than that in man.

  17. Double Compressions of Atmospheric Depth by Geopotential Tendency, Vorticity, and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Affected Abrupt High Particulate Matter Concentrations at a Coastal City for a Yellow Dust Period in October

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyo Choi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using GRIMM-aerosol sampler, NOAA-HYSPLIT model, and 3D-WRF-3.3 model, the transportation of dusts from Gobi Desert toward Gangneung city, Korea was investigated from 09:00 LST October 27 to 04:00 LST October 28, 2003. Maximum PM10 (PM2.5, PM1 concentration was detected with 3.8 (3.4, 14.1 times higher magnitude than one in non-Yellow Dust period. The combination of dusts transported from the desert under westerly wind with particulate matters and gases from vehicles on the road of the city caused high PM concentrations near the ground surface at 09:00 LST and their maxima at 17:00 LST near sunset with further pollutants from heating boilers in the resident area. Positive geopotential tendency at the 500 hPa level of the city (∂Φ/∂t; m day−1 corresponding to negative vorticity of -4×10-5 sec−1 (-2.5×10-5 sec−1 at 0900 LST (21:00 LST; at night was +83 m day−1 (+30 m day−1 and it caused atmospheric depth between 500 hPa level and the ground surface to be vertically expanded. However, its net reduction to −53 m/12 hrs until 21:00 LST indicated synoptic-scale atmospheric layer to be vertical shrunken, resulting in the increase of PM concentrations at 17:00 LST. Simultaneously, much shallower microscale stable nocturnal surface inversion layer (NSIL than daytime thermal internal boundary layer induced particulate matters to be merged inside the NSIL, resulting in maximum PM concentrations at 17:00 LST.

  18. Short period tidal variations of earth rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, C. F.; Williams, J. G.; Parke, M. E.; Dickey, J. O.

    1981-01-01

    It is explained that the tidal deformation of the earth's polar moment of inertia by the moon and sun cause periodic variations in rotation. The short period oscillations give rise to a meter-sized, diurnal signature in the lunar laser ranging data obtained at McDonald Observatory. A solution is given for the scale parameter k/C at fortnightly and monthly tidal frequencies. The results are compared with those obtained by other investigators and with a theoretical estimate which includes the effect of oceans and a decoupled fluid core.

  19. Coherent Phonon Dynamics in Short-Period InAs/GaSb Superlattices

    OpenAIRE

    Noe, G. T.; Haugan, H. J.; Brown, G. J.; Sanders, G. D.; Stanton, C. J.; Kono, J.

    2011-01-01

    We have performed ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopy studies on a series of InAs/GaSb-based short-period superlattice (SL) samples with periods ranging from 46 \\AA to 71 \\AA. We observe two types of oscillations in the differential reflectivity with fast ($\\sim$ 1- 2 ps) and slow ($\\sim$ 24 ps) periods. The period of the fast oscillations changes with the SL period and can be explained as coherent acoustic phonons generated from carriers photoexcited within the SL. This mode provides an accura...

  20. Quasi-periodic Fibonacci and periodic one-dimensional hypersonic phononic crystals of porous silicon: Experiment and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aliev, Gazi N., E-mail: g.aliev@bath.ac.uk; Goller, Bernhard [Department of Physics, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY (United Kingdom)

    2014-09-07

    A one-dimensional Fibonacci phononic crystal and a distributed Bragg reflector were constructed from porous silicon. The structures had the same number of layers and similar acoustic impedance mismatch, and were electrochemically etched in highly boron doped silicon wafers. The thickness of the individual layers in the stacks was approximately 2 μm. Both types of hypersonic band gap structure were studied by direct measurement of the transmittance of longitudinal acoustic waves in the 0.1–2.6 GHz range. Acoustic band gaps deeper than 50 dB were detected in both structures. The experimental results were compared with model calculations employing the transfer matrix method. The acoustic properties of periodic and quasi-periodic structures in which half-wave retarding bi-layers do not consist of two quarter-wave retarding layers are discussed. The strong correlation between width and depth of gaps in the transmission spectra is demonstrated. The dominant mechanisms of acoustic losses in porous multilayer structures are discussed. The elastic constants remain proportional over our range of porosity, and hence, the Grüneisen parameter is constant. This simplifies the expression for the porosity dependence of the Akhiezer damping.

  1. High resolution projections for the western Iberian coastal low level jet in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Semedo, Alvaro

    2017-09-01

    The Iberian coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is one of the less studied boundary layer wind jet features in the Eastern Boundary Currents Systems (EBCS). These regions are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems, where the atmosphere-land-ocean feedbacks, which include marine boundary layer clouds, coastal jets, upwelling and inland soil temperature and moisture, play an important role in defining the regional climate along the sub-tropical mid-latitude western coastal areas. Recently, the present climate western Iberian CLLJ properties were extensively described using a high resolution regional climate hindcast simulation. A summer maximum frequency of occurrence above 30 % was found, with mean maximum wind speeds around 15 ms-1, between 300 and 400 m heights (at the jet core). Since the 1990s the climate change impact on the EBCS is being studied, nevertheless some lack of consensus still persists regarding the evolution of upwelling and other components of the climate system in these areas. However, recently some authors have shown that changes are to be expected concerning the timing, intensity and spatial homogeneity of coastal upwelling, in response to future warming, especially at higher latitudes, namely in Iberia and Canaries. In this study, the first climate change assessment study regarding the Western Iberian CLLJ, using a high resolution (9 km) regional climate simulation, is presented. The properties of this CLLJ are studied and compared using two 30 years simulations: one historical simulation for the 1971-2000 period, and another simulation for future climate, in agreement with the RCP8.5 scenario, for the 2071-2100 period. Robust and consistent changes are found: (1) the hourly frequency of occurrence of the CLLJ is expected to increase in summer along the western Iberian coast, from mean maximum values of around 35 % to approximately 50 %; (2) the relative increase of the CLLJ frequency of occurrence is higher in the north off western Iberia; (3

  2. The Effect of Low-Density Diets on Broiler Breeder Performance During the Laying Period and on Embryonic Development of their Offspring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enting, H.; Kruip, T.A.M.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Aar, van de P.J.

    2007-01-01

    The effect of low-density diets on bird performance, egg composition, and embryonic development was studied with 2,100 female and 210 male Cobb broiler breeders from 25 to 60 wk of age. The experiment included 5 treatments. These included a control group with a normal density diet (ND, 2,800 kcal of

  3. The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiaohui; Lian, Yi; Wang, Qiguang

    2018-01-01

    This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system's predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

  4. Effects of regrowth period, season and harvesting frequency on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of regrowth period, season and harvesting frequency on the yield and nutritive value of Chloris gayana in the southern highlands of Tanzania. ... In vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) declined faster with increasing periods of growth in the early than in the late wet season. ME ranged ...

  5. Preliminary data from lithium hydride ablation tests conducted by NASA, Ames Research Center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, R.D.

    1970-01-01

    A series of ablation tests of lithium hydride has been made by NASA-Ames in one of their high-enthalpy arc-heated wind tunnels. Two-inch diameter cylindrical samples of the hydride, supplied by A. I., were subjected to heating on their ends for time periods up to 10 seconds. After each test, the amount of material removed from each sample was measured. The rates of loss of material were correlated with the heat input rates in terms of a heat of ablation, which ranged from 2100 to 3500 Btu/lb. The higher values were obtained when the hydride contained a matrix such as steel honeycomb of steel wool. (U.S.)

  6. Quasi-periodic luminosity variations in dwarf novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, E.L.; Nather, R.E.

    1979-01-01

    We have identified quasi-periodic oscillations in the light curves of five dwarf novae--U Gem, SS Cyg, RU Peg, KT Per, and VW Hyi-- and in the light curve of the quasi-periodic X-ray source Sco X-1. The mean periods of the quasi-periodic oscillations range from 32 s in SS Cyg to 147 s in KT Per and 165 s in Sco X-l. Their amplitudes are typically 0.005--0.0l mag. The properties of the quasi-periodic oscillations are represented well by a second-order autoregressive process. Use of this representation shows that the length of time over which the quasi-periodic oscillations maintain coherence is very short, typically 3--5 cycles of the oscillations. Thus the quasi-periodic oscillations can be distinguished from the short-period coherent oscillations in dwarf novae, which are usually interpreted as white dwarf pulsations, because t the periods of the quasi-periodic oscillations are 3--4 times longer and their coherence time is much shorter. The quasi-periodic oscillations occur in dwarf novae only during their eruptions and occur in Sco X-l only when the system is bright. The presence of the oscillations does not depend on the subclass to which a dwarf nova belongs or on the morphology of the individual eruptions. We argue that their short periods, their short coherence times, and their presence in Sco X-l require that the quasi-periodic oscillations be produced by the accretion disk, and not by the stars or by the boundary between the a accretion disk and its central star

  7. Outdoor stocking density in free-range laying hens: radio-frequency identification of impacts on range use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, D L M; Hinch, G N; Dyall, T R; Warin, L; Little, B A; Lee, C

    2017-01-01

    The number and size of free-range laying hen (Gallus gallus domesticus) production systems are increasing within Australia in response to consumer demand for perceived improvement in hen welfare. However, variation in outdoor stocking density has generated consumer dissatisfaction leading to the development of a national information standard on free-range egg labelling by the Australian Consumer Affairs Ministers. The current Australian Model Code of Practice for Domestic Poultry states a guideline of 1500 hens/ha, but no maximum density is set. Radio-frequency identification (RFID) tracking technology was used to measure daily range usage by individual ISA Brown hens housed in six small flocks (150 hens/flock - 50% of hens tagged), each with access to one of three outdoor stocking density treatments (two replicates per treatment: 2000, 10 000, 20 000 hens/ha), from 22 to 26, 27 to 31 and 32 to 36 weeks of age. There was some variation in range usage across the sampling periods and by weeks 32 to 36 individual hens from the lowest stocking density on average used the range for longer each day (Prange with 2% of tagged hens in each treatment never venturing outdoors and a large proportion that accessed the range daily (2000 hens/ha: 80.5%; 10 000 hens/ha: 66.5%; 20 000 hens/ha: 71.4%). On average, 38% to 48% of hens were seen on the range simultaneously and used all available areas of all ranges. These results of experimental-sized flocks have implications for determining optimal outdoor stocking densities for commercial free-range laying hens but further research would be needed to determine the effects of increased range usage on hen welfare.

  8. Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Déqué, Michel; Eckert, Nicolas; Lejeune, Yves; Morin, Samuel

    2018-04-01

    This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5-EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCM pairs spanning historical (1950-2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006-2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 °C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986-2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 °C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards.

  9. Learning to love the rain in Bergen (Norway) and other lessons from a Climate Services neophyte

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolowski, Stefan; Wakker, Joyce

    2014-05-01

    slice under the rcp4.5 "middle of the road" emissions scenario (2071-2100). A unique feature of the WRF modeling system is the ability to write data for selected locations at every time step, thus creating time series of very high temporal resolution which can be compared to observations. This high temporal resolution also allowed us to directly calculate intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for intense precipitation of short to long duration (5 minutes - 1 day) for a number of return periods (2-100 years) with out resorting to factors to calculate rainfall intensities at higher temporal resolutions, as is commonly done. We investigated the IDF curves using a number of parametric and non-parametric approaches. Given the relatively short time periods of the modeled data the standard Gumble approach is presented here. This is also done to maintain consistency with previous calculations by the water and drain administration. Curves were also generated from observed time series at two locations in Bergen. Both the historical, GCM-driven simulation and the ERA-interim driven simulation closely match the observed IDF curves for all return periods up to durations of about 10 minutes where WRF then fails to reproduce the very short, very high intensity events. IDF curves under future conditions were also generated and the changes were compared with the current standard approach of applying climate change-factors to observed extreme precipitation in order to account for structural errors in global and regional climate models. Our investigation suggests that high-resolution regional simulations can capture many of the topographic features and dynamical processes necessary to accurately model extreme rainfall, even in at highly local scales and over complex terrain such as Bergen, Norway. The exercise also produced many lessons for climate service providers and users alike.

  10. A novel small-period wiggler for free-electron lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Bibo; Wang Mingchang; Wang Zhijiang

    1992-01-01

    A novel small-period wiggler configuration constructed by sheet of bifilar-helix with ferro-core for free-electron lasers is proposed. The performance characteristics of the wiggler prototype with 10 mm period are measured. The field as high as 500 G to 1 kG have been obtained. The amplifier designs for operation at 190 GHz using modest electron beam energies in the range of 400-500 keV are presented

  11. Change of flood risk under climate change based on Discharge Probability Index in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitta, T.; Yoshimura, K.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2010-12-01

    Water-related disasters under the climate change have recently gained considerable interest, and there have been many studies referring to flood risk at the global scale (e.g. Milly et al., 2002; Hirabayashi et al., 2008). In order to build adaptive capacity, however, regional impact evaluation is needed. We thus focus on the flood risk over Japan in the present study. The output from the Regional Climate Model 20 (RCM20), which was developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, was used. The data was first compared with observed data based on Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System and ground weather observations, and the model biases were corrected using the ratio and difference of the 20-year mean values. The bias-corrected RCM20 atmospheric data were then forced to run a land surface model and a river routing model (Yoshimura et al., 2007; Ngo-Duc, T. et al. 2007) to simulate river discharge during 1981-2000, 2031-2050, and 2081-2100. Simulated river discharge was converted to Discharge Probability Index (DPI), which was proposed by Yoshimura et al based on a statistical approach. The bias and uncertainty of the models are already taken into account in the concept of DPI, so that DPI serves as a good indicator of flood risk. We estimated the statistical parameters for DPI using the river discharge for 1981-2000 with an assumption that the parameters stay the same in the different climate periods. We then evaluated the occurrence of flood events corresponding to DPI categories in each 20 years and averaged them in 9 regions. The results indicate that low DPI flood events (return period of 2 years) will become more frequent in 2031-2050 and high DPI flood events (return period of 200 years) will become more frequent in 2081-2100 compared with the period of 1981-2000, though average precipitation will become larger during 2031-2050 than during 2081-2100 in most regions. It reflects the increased extreme precipitation during 2081-2100.

  12. Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian

    2017-04-01

    In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared

  13. 5 CFR 534.403 - SES rate range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... first day of the first applicable pay period beginning on or after January 1, 2004, the minimum rate of basic pay of the SES rate range is set at an amount equal to the minimum rate of basic pay under 5 U.S.C... Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PAY UNDER OTHER SYSTEMS Pay and...

  14. Survival period after tube feeding in bedridden older patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Yoichi; Nakagawa-Satoh, Takuma; Ohrui, Takashi; Fujii, Masahiko; Arai, Hiroyuki; Sasaki, Hidetada

    2012-04-01

    We prospectively studied survival periods after tube feeding. Participants were 163 bedridden older patients suffering from dysphagia. A wide range of survival periods after tube feeding were observed within half a year without tube feeding after being bedridden. After this initial period, survival periods after tube feeding were limited to approximately half a year. Survival periods after tube feeding were positively proportional to the length of time patients were free from pneumonia after tube feeding. After tube feeding, patients died from pneumonia within half a year, and the frequency of pneumonia was 3.1 ± 2.7 times (mean ± SD) before death. Survival periods after tube feeding for less than 1 year were primarily determined by being bedridden for more than half a year without tube feeding and once pneumonia occurred; patients who were tube fed did not survive for more than half a year. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  15. Salinity/temperature ranges for application of seawater SA-T-P models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, G. M.; Millero, F. J.; Feistel, R.

    2009-01-01

    At the present time, little is known about how broad salinity and temperature ranges are for seawater thermodynamic models that are functions of absolute salinity (SA), temperature (T) and pressure (P). Such models rely on fixed compositional ratios of the major components (e.g. Na/Cl, Mg/Cl, Ca/Cl, SO4/Cl, etc.). As seawater evaporates or freezes, solid phases (e.g. CaCO3(s) or CaSO42H2O(s)) will eventually precipitate. This will change the compositional ratios, and these salinity models will no longer be applicable. A future complicating factor is the lowering of seawater pH as the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase. A geochemical model (FREZCHEM) was used to quantify the SA-T boundaries at P=0.1 MPa and the range of these boundaries for future atmospheric CO2 increases. An omega supersaturation model for CaCO3 minerals based on homogeneous nucleation was extended from 25-40°C to 3°C. CaCO3 minerals were the boundary defining minerals (first to precipitate) between 3°C (at SA=104 g kg-1 and 40°C (at SA=66 g kg-1. At 2.82°C, calcite(CaCO3) transitioned to ikaite(CaCO36H2O) as the dominant boundary defining mineral for colder temperatures, which culminated in a low temperature boundary of -4.93°C. Increasing atmospheric CO2 from 385 μatm (in Year 2008) to 550 μatm (in Year 2100) would increase the SA and t boundaries as much as 11 g kg-1 and 0.66°C, respectively. The model-calculated calcite-ikaite transition temperature of 2.82°C is in excellent agreement with ikaite formation in natural environments that occurs at temperatures of 3°C or lower. Furthermore, these results provide a quantitative theoretical explanation (FREZCHEM model calculations) for why ikaite is the solid phase CaCO3 mineral that precipitates during seawater freezing.

  16. Free-ranging farm cats: home range size and predation on a livestock unit in Northwest Georgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitts-Morgan, Susanna E; Caires, Kyle C; Bohannon, Lisa A; Parsons, Elizabeth I; Hilburn, Katharine A

    2015-01-01

    This study's objective was to determine seasonal and diurnal vs. nocturnal home range size, as well as predation for free-ranging farm cats at a livestock unit in Northwest Georgia. Seven adult cats were tracked with attached GPS units for up to two weeks for one spring and two summer seasons from May 2010 through August 2011. Three and five cats were tracked for up to two weeks during the fall and winter seasons, respectively. Feline scat was collected during this entire period. Cats were fed a commercial cat food daily. There was no seasonal effect (P > 0.05) on overall (95% KDE and 90% KDE) or core home range size (50% KDE). Male cats tended (P = 0.08) to have larger diurnal and nocturnal core home ranges (1.09 ha) compared to female cats (0.64 ha). Reproductively intact cats (n = 2) had larger (P ranges as compared to altered cats. Feline scat processing separated scat into prey parts, and of the 210 feline scats collected during the study, 75.24% contained hair. Of these 158 scat samples, 86 contained non-cat hair and 72 contained only cat hair. Other prey components included fragments of bone in 21.43% of scat and teeth in 12.86% of scat. Teeth were used to identify mammalian prey hunted by these cats, of which the Hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus) was the primary rodent. Other targeted mammals were Peromyscus sp., Sylvilagus sp. and Microtus sp. Invertebrates and birds were less important as prey, but all mammalian prey identified in this study consisted of native animals. While the free-ranging farm cats in this study did not adjust their home range seasonally, sex and reproductive status did increase diurnal and nocturnal home range size. Ultimately, larger home ranges of free-ranging cats could negatively impact native wildlife.

  17. PERIODIC AND APERIODIC VARIABILITY IN THE MOLECULAR CLOUD ρ OPHIUCHUS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parks, J. Robert; Plavchan, Peter; Gee, Alan H.; White, Russel J.

    2014-01-01

    Presented are the results of a near-IR photometric survey of 1678 stars in the direction of the ρ Ophiuchus (ρ Oph) star forming region using data from the 2MASS Calibration Database. For each target in this sample, up to 1584 individual J-, H-, and K s -band photometric measurements with a cadence of ∼1 day are obtained over three observing seasons spanning ∼2.5 yr; it is the most intensive survey of stars in this region to date. This survey identifies 101 variable stars with ΔK s -band amplitudes from 0.044 to 2.31 mag and Δ(J – K s ) color amplitudes ranging from 0.053 to 1.47 mag. Of the 72 young ρ Oph star cluster members included in this survey, 79% are variable; in addition, 22 variable stars are identified as candidate members. Based on the temporal behavior of the K s time-series, the variability is distinguished as either periodic, long time-scale or irregular. This temporal behavior coupled with the behavior of stellar colors is used to assign a dominant variability mechanism. A new period-searching algorithm finds periodic signals in 32 variable stars with periods between 0.49 to 92 days. The chief mechanism driving the periodic variability for 18 stars is rotational modulation of cool starspots while 3 periodically vary due to accretion-induced hot spots. The time-series for six variable stars contains discrete periodic ''eclipse-like'' features with periods ranging from 3 to 8 days. These features may be asymmetries in the circumstellar disk, potentially sustained or driven by a proto-planet at or near the co-rotation radius. Aperiodic, long time-scale variations in stellar flux are identified in the time-series for 31 variable stars with time-scales ranging from 64 to 790 days. The chief mechanism driving long time-scale variability is variable extinction or mass accretion rates. The majority of the variable stars (40) exhibit sporadic, aperiodic variability over no discernable time-scale. No chief variability mechanism

  18. PERIODIC AND APERIODIC VARIABILITY IN THE MOLECULAR CLOUD ρ OPHIUCHUS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parks, J. Robert; Plavchan, Peter; Gee, Alan H. [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Mail Code 100-22, 770 South Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); White, Russel J., E-mail: parksj@chara.gsu.edu [Georgia State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 25 Park Place, Room 605, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Presented are the results of a near-IR photometric survey of 1678 stars in the direction of the ρ Ophiuchus (ρ Oph) star forming region using data from the 2MASS Calibration Database. For each target in this sample, up to 1584 individual J-, H-, and K{sub s} -band photometric measurements with a cadence of ∼1 day are obtained over three observing seasons spanning ∼2.5 yr; it is the most intensive survey of stars in this region to date. This survey identifies 101 variable stars with ΔK{sub s} -band amplitudes from 0.044 to 2.31 mag and Δ(J – K{sub s} ) color amplitudes ranging from 0.053 to 1.47 mag. Of the 72 young ρ Oph star cluster members included in this survey, 79% are variable; in addition, 22 variable stars are identified as candidate members. Based on the temporal behavior of the K{sub s} time-series, the variability is distinguished as either periodic, long time-scale or irregular. This temporal behavior coupled with the behavior of stellar colors is used to assign a dominant variability mechanism. A new period-searching algorithm finds periodic signals in 32 variable stars with periods between 0.49 to 92 days. The chief mechanism driving the periodic variability for 18 stars is rotational modulation of cool starspots while 3 periodically vary due to accretion-induced hot spots. The time-series for six variable stars contains discrete periodic ''eclipse-like'' features with periods ranging from 3 to 8 days. These features may be asymmetries in the circumstellar disk, potentially sustained or driven by a proto-planet at or near the co-rotation radius. Aperiodic, long time-scale variations in stellar flux are identified in the time-series for 31 variable stars with time-scales ranging from 64 to 790 days. The chief mechanism driving long time-scale variability is variable extinction or mass accretion rates. The majority of the variable stars (40) exhibit sporadic, aperiodic variability over no discernable time-scale. No chief

  19. Selective loads periodization attenuates biochemical disturbances and enhances performance in female futsal players during competitive season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricelli Endrigo Ruppel da Rocha

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the effect of selective loads periodization on physical performance and biochemical parameters in professional female futsal players during competitive season. Twelve elite female futsal players from Kindermann team (Brazil participated in the study. Variables of physical performance and erythrogram, leukogram, plasma cortisol, plasma immunoglobulin A (IgA in the beginning of the preparatory period (PP, in the competitive period (CP and in the final competitive period (FCP were evaluated. Using selective loads periodization, all variables of physical performance increased (p < .01 during CP and were maintained during FCP (p < .05. White blood cells did not modify during CP and the increase of FCP in 28% remained within normal ranges. Plasma cortisol also increased during CP (p < .01 and was within the normal ranges during FCP. Plasma IgA also was within the normal ranges during CP and FCP. Selective loads periodization is adequate and attends the requirements of the sport during competitive season in female futsal players.

  20. Long-range correlation and market segmentation in bond market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhongxing; Yan, Yan; Chen, Xiaosong

    2017-09-01

    This paper investigates the long-range auto-correlations and cross-correlations in bond market. Based on Detrended Moving Average (DMA) method, empirical results present a clear evidence of long-range persistence that exists in one year scale. The degree of long-range correlation related to maturities has an upward tendency with a peak in short term. These findings confirm the expectations of fractal market hypothesis (FMH). Furthermore, we have developed a method based on a complex network to study the long-range cross-correlation structure and applied it to our data, and found a clear pattern of market segmentation in the long run. We also detected the nature of long-range correlation in the sub-period 2007-2012 and 2011-2016. The result from our research shows that long-range auto-correlations are decreasing in the recent years while long-range cross-correlations are strengthening.

  1. Quantitative analysis of results of quality control tests in linear accelerators used in radiotherapy; Analise quantitativa dos resultados de testes de controle de qualidade em aceleradores lineares usados em radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passaro, Bruno M.; Rodrigues, Laura N. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Videira, Heber S., E-mail: bruno.passaro@gmail.com [Universidade de Sao Paulo (HCFMRP/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Medicina. Hospital das Clinicas

    2013-04-15

    The aim of this study is to assess and analyze the stability of the calibration factor of three linear accelerators, as well as the other dosimetric parameters normally included in a program of quality control in radiotherapy. The average calibration factors of the accelerators for the period of approximately four years for the Clinac 600C and Clinac 6EX were (0.998±0.012) and (0.996±0.014), respectively. For the Clinac 2100CD 6 MV and 15 MV was (1.008±0.009) and (1.006±0.010), respectively, in a period of approximately four years. The data of the calibration factors were divided into four subgroups for a more detailed analysis of behavior over the years. Through statistical analysis of calibration factors, we found that for the 600C and Clinacs 2100CD, is an expected probability that more than 90% of cases the values are within acceptable ranges according to TG-142, while for the Clinac 6EX is expected around 85% since this had several exchanges of accelerator components. The values of TPR20,10 of three accelerators are practically constant and within acceptable limits according to the TG-142. It can be concluded that a detailed study of data from the calibration factor of the accelerators and TPR{sub 20},{sub 10} from a quantitative point of view, is extremely useful in a quality assurance program. (author)

  2. Infinte Periodic Structure of Lightweight Elements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Domadiya, Parthkumar Gandalal; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard; Sorokin, Sergey

    2013-01-01

    Lightweight wooden structures have become more popular as a sustainable, environmental- friendly and cost-effective alternative to concrete, steel and masonry buildings. However, there are certain drawbacks regarding noise and vibration due to the smaller weight and stiffness of wooden buildings....... Furthermore, lightweight building elements are typically periodic structures that behave as filters for sound propagation within certain frequency ranges (stop bands), thus only allowing transmission within the pass bands. Hence, traditional methods based on statistical energy analysis cannot be used...... for proper dynamic assessment of lightweight buildings. Instead, this paper discusses and compares the use of finite element analysis and a wave approach based on Floquet theory. The present analysis has focus on the effect of periodicity on vibration transmission within semi-infinite beam structures. Two...

  3. Generalized synthesis of periodic surfactant/inorganic composite materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huo, Q.; Margolese, D.I.; Ciesla, U.; Feng, P.; Gier, T.E.; Sieger, P.; Leon, R.; Petroff, P.M.; Schüth, F.; Stucky, G.D.

    1994-01-01

    THE recent synthesis of silica-based mesoporous materials by the cooperative assembly of periodic inorganic and surfactant-based structures has attracted great interest because it extends the range of molecular-sieve materials into the very-large-pore regime. If the synthetic approach can be

  4. Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dile, Yihun Taddele; Berndtsson, Ronny; Setegn, Shimelis G

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

  5. Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin -Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihun Taddele Dile

    Full Text Available Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3 Global Circulation Model (GCM scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season and Kiremit (main rainy season periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

  6. Multimedia Based on Scientific Approach for Periodic System of Element

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, S.; Aryana, D. M.; Subarkah, C. Z.; Ramdhani, M. A.

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to describe the application of interactive multimedia on the concept of the periodic system of elements. The study was conducted by using the one-shot case study design. The subjects in this study were 35 high school students of class XI IPA. Results showed that the stages of observing, questioning, data collecting (experimenting), and communicating are all considered very good. This shows that multimedia can assist students in explaining the development of the periodic system of elements, ranging from Triade doberrainer, Newland Octarchic Law, Mendeleyev, and the modern periodic, as well as atomic radius, ionization energy, and electronegativity of an element in the periodic system.

  7. Pulsations of the Free Oscillations of the Earth in an Hourly Period Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, G. A.; Zakrzhevskaya, N. A.; Akatova, K. N.

    2018-05-01

    The records from 161 identical broadband seismic stations located in different regions of the world after the strong earthquakes off Sumatra Island on December 26, 2004 with magnitude M = 9.1, in Chile on February 27, 2010 with M = 8.8, and the Tohoku earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011 with M = 9.0 are studied. Oscillations with a period of 11 h are analyzed. They are observed as pulsations in the free radial oscillations of the Earth lasting more than one week. The stations located a few hundred kilometers apart from each other demonstrate identical records. As the distance between the stations becomes larger, the structure of the records becomes different. At interstation distances of about 3800 km, the records at the stations have opposite phases, and at distances of 7600 km, the phases coincide. This is reflected in the spatial structure of the areas of the positive and negative phases of the oscillations on the Earth's surface. This structure recurs at the same time instant after the three considered earthquakes, which indicates that this effect is independent of the properties of the sources. The spatial positions of the areas of positive and negative phases are also not correlated to the geological conditions in the vicinity of the stations which are located both in the subduction zone and within the platform. The structure of the pulsations and their spatial distribution differ from the variations of the Earth's tides.

  8. Free-Ranging Farm Cats: Home Range Size and Predation on a Livestock Unit In Northwest Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitts-Morgan, Susanna E.; Caires, Kyle C.; Bohannon, Lisa A.; Parsons, Elizabeth I.; Hilburn, Katharine A.

    2015-01-01

    This study’s objective was to determine seasonal and diurnal vs. nocturnal home range size, as well as predation for free-ranging farm cats at a livestock unit in Northwest Georgia. Seven adult cats were tracked with attached GPS units for up to two weeks for one spring and two summer seasons from May 2010 through August 2011. Three and five cats were tracked for up to two weeks during the fall and winter seasons, respectively. Feline scat was collected during this entire period. Cats were fed a commercial cat food daily. There was no seasonal effect (P > 0.05) on overall (95% KDE and 90% KDE) or core home range size (50% KDE). Male cats tended (P = 0.08) to have larger diurnal and nocturnal core home ranges (1.09 ha) compared to female cats (0.64 ha). Reproductively intact cats (n = 2) had larger (P cats. Feline scat processing separated scat into prey parts, and of the 210 feline scats collected during the study, 75.24% contained hair. Of these 158 scat samples, 86 contained non-cat hair and 72 contained only cat hair. Other prey components included fragments of bone in 21.43% of scat and teeth in 12.86% of scat. Teeth were used to identify mammalian prey hunted by these cats, of which the Hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus) was the primary rodent. Other targeted mammals were Peromyscus sp., Sylvilagus sp. and Microtus sp. Invertebrates and birds were less important as prey, but all mammalian prey identified in this study consisted of native animals. While the free-ranging farm cats in this study did not adjust their home range seasonally, sex and reproductive status did increase diurnal and nocturnal home range size. Ultimately, larger home ranges of free-ranging cats could negatively impact native wildlife. PMID:25894078

  9. Periodicity-induced effects and method in vibro-acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorokin, Sergey V.

    2014-01-01

    of the lecture is to illustrate these issues in simple examples and to discuss possible applications and generalisations. First, the eigenfrequency spectra of finite periodic structures are compared with the location of stop-bands for their infinite counterparts. This is done with the special attention being...... of the lecture is concerned with the numerical implementation of the Floquet theory and the experimental demonstration of periodicity effects. A brief exposition of the Wave Finite Element method and an assessment of its validity range in canonical benchmark problems are presented. The results of experimental...

  10. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Babur

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 20712100 and compared with the baseline data (1981–2010 to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

  11. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-12-18

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi

  12. The impacts of climate change on a Norwegian high-head hydropower plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chernet, Haregewoin Haile; Alfredsen, Knut; Killintveit, Aanund

    2010-07-01

    Full text: Norway relies on hydropower for 99 percent of the electricity production and thus Hydropower is important for Norway today and in the future energy system. The work presented in this paper shows how a high-head hydropower system in Norway will be affected in the future climate. The Aurland Hydropower system, operated by E-Co Vannkraft, Norway is the test case for the study. The Aurland hydropower system has many reservoirs and transfer systems and is considered to be one of the complex systems in Norway, but also a typical example of a Norwegian high head system. The nMAG Hydropower simulation model, which has been developed at the Norwegian Hydro technical Laboratory, is used to simulate the hydropower system. Historical and future inflow series were transposed from the neighbouring catchment Flaamselvi using scaling based on area and specific runoff, as there is no discharge station in Aurland catchment with long unregulated inflow series to set up the model and to be used for developing future climate scenarios. To generate the future inflow series for the analysis, the HBV hydrological model is calibrated for the Flaamselvi catchment. The model is then used to generate future inflow series of using the Hadley GCM (HADAm3) and A2, B2 climate scenarios. The operation of the hydropower system is then simulated for the period 2071 -2100 to see how future power production is affected by the change in the inflow conditions. The HBV model is also used to see how snow accumulation will be affected in the future as snow melt is important for Norwegian reservoir and hydropower systems. The Hydrologic scenarios under climate change imply an average increase in runoff for the system. Snow accumulation will decrease with sooner snow melt and more winter precipitation as rain. The hydropower simulation results show that associated with the increase in runoff there is an increase in energy generation with 10-20% under the current reservoir operation strategies

  13. Evolutionary dynamics of incubation periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottino-Loffler, Bertrand; Scott, Jacob G; Strogatz, Steven H

    2017-12-21

    The incubation period for typhoid, polio, measles, leukemia and many other diseases follows a right-skewed, approximately lognormal distribution. Although this pattern was discovered more than sixty years ago, it remains an open question to explain its ubiquity. Here, we propose an explanation based on evolutionary dynamics on graphs. For simple models of a mutant or pathogen invading a network-structured population of healthy cells, we show that skewed distributions of incubation periods emerge for a wide range of assumptions about invader fitness, competition dynamics, and network structure. The skewness stems from stochastic mechanisms associated with two classic problems in probability theory: the coupon collector and the random walk. Unlike previous explanations that rely crucially on heterogeneity, our results hold even for homogeneous populations. Thus, we predict that two equally healthy individuals subjected to equal doses of equally pathogenic agents may, by chance alone, show remarkably different time courses of disease.

  14. Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianwa Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0, which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ETc and crop water requirement (CWR. CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET0 would would increase by 4% to 7%; ETc and CWR have the same trend as ET0, but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 106 to 242 × 106 m3 by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 106 to 456 × 106 m3 by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use.

  15. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    inundation risk. Hence different statistical downscaling methods have been applied. Furthermore, the effect of the emission scenario, the spatial resolution of the RCM and the interdependency between RCMs are discussed. Taking this information into account a 2‐year event is expected to increase by 20% over...... a projection period of 100 years. This approximates the variation within one natural oscillation cycle, indicating that it is crucial to understand and account for the future multi‐decadal variations of extreme precipitation. The study estimates the expected magnitude of variation in design rainfall for urban...

  16. Electromagnetic Radiation of Electrons in Periodic Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Potylitsyn, Alexander Petrovich

    2011-01-01

    Periodic magnetic structures (undulators) are widely used in accelerators to generate monochromatic undulator radiation (UR) in the range from far infrared to the hard X-ray region. Another periodic crystalline structure is used to produce quasimonochromatic polarized photon beams via the coherent bremsstrahlung mechanism (CBS). Due to such characteristics as monochromaticity, polarization and adjustability, these types of radiation is of large interest for applied and basic research of accelerator-emitted radiation. The book provides a detailed overview of the fundamental principles behind electromagnetic radiation emitted from accelerated charged particles (e.g. UR, CBS, radiation of fast electrons in Laser flash fields) as well as a unified description of relatively new radiation mechanisms which attracted great interest in recent years. This are the so-called polarization radiation excited by the Coulomb field of incident particles in periodic structures, parametric X-rays, resonant transition radiation a...

  17. Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A

    2017-08-01

    Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr -1 , than for adults, 0.13 km yr -1 . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Free-ranging farm cats: home range size and predation on a livestock unit in Northwest Georgia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanna E Kitts-Morgan

    Full Text Available This study's objective was to determine seasonal and diurnal vs. nocturnal home range size, as well as predation for free-ranging farm cats at a livestock unit in Northwest Georgia. Seven adult cats were tracked with attached GPS units for up to two weeks for one spring and two summer seasons from May 2010 through August 2011. Three and five cats were tracked for up to two weeks during the fall and winter seasons, respectively. Feline scat was collected during this entire period. Cats were fed a commercial cat food daily. There was no seasonal effect (P > 0.05 on overall (95% KDE and 90% KDE or core home range size (50% KDE. Male cats tended (P = 0.08 to have larger diurnal and nocturnal core home ranges (1.09 ha compared to female cats (0.64 ha. Reproductively intact cats (n = 2 had larger (P < 0.0001 diurnal and nocturnal home ranges as compared to altered cats. Feline scat processing separated scat into prey parts, and of the 210 feline scats collected during the study, 75.24% contained hair. Of these 158 scat samples, 86 contained non-cat hair and 72 contained only cat hair. Other prey components included fragments of bone in 21.43% of scat and teeth in 12.86% of scat. Teeth were used to identify mammalian prey hunted by these cats, of which the Hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus was the primary rodent. Other targeted mammals were Peromyscus sp., Sylvilagus sp. and Microtus sp. Invertebrates and birds were less important as prey, but all mammalian prey identified in this study consisted of native animals. While the free-ranging farm cats in this study did not adjust their home range seasonally, sex and reproductive status did increase diurnal and nocturnal home range size. Ultimately, larger home ranges of free-ranging cats could negatively impact native wildlife.

  19. Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Tony N.T.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Joseph C.

    2010-01-01

    Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979-2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009-2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979-2008 and future 92 years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis, electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing, average consumption in 2009-2038, 2039-2068 and 2069-2100 would be, respectively, 5.7%, 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979-2008 average, with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend, but 1-4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years.

  20. Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Bausch, Alexandra; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Xu, Baiqing; Edwards. Ross; Bisiaux, Marion; McConnell, Joe

    2013-01-01

    Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

  1. Effects of harvesting on spatial and temporal diversity of carbon stocks in a boreal forest landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ter-Mikaelian, Michael T; Colombo, Stephen J; Chen, Jiaxin

    2013-10-01

    Carbon stocks in managed forests of Ontario, Canada, and in harvested wood products originated from these forests were estimated for 2010-2100. Simulations included four future forest harvesting scenarios based on historical harvesting levels (low, average, high, and maximum available) and a no-harvest scenario. In four harvesting scenarios, forest carbon stocks in Ontario's managed forest were estimated to range from 6202 to 6227 Mt C (millions of tons of carbon) in 2010, and from 6121 to 6428 Mt C by 2100. Inclusion of carbon stored in harvested wood products in use and in landfills changed the projected range in 2100 to 6710-6742 Mt C. For the no-harvest scenario, forest carbon stocks were projected to change from 6246 Mt C in 2010 to 6680 Mt C in 2100. Spatial variation in projected forest carbon stocks was strongly related to changes in forest age (r = 0.603), but had weak correlation with harvesting rates. For all managed forests in Ontario combined, projected carbon stocks in combined forest and harvested wood products converged to within 2% difference by 2100. The results suggest that harvesting in the boreal forest, if applied within limits of sustainable forest management, will eventually have a relatively small effect on long-term combined forest and wood products carbon stocks. However, there was a large time lag to approach carbon equality, with more than 90 years with a net reduction in stored carbon in harvested forests plus wood products compared to nonharvested boreal forest which also has low rates of natural disturbance. The eventual near equivalency of carbon stocks in nonharvested forest and forest that is harvested and protected from natural disturbance reflects both the accumulation of carbon in harvested wood products and the relatively young age at which boreal forest stands undergo natural succession in the absence of disturbance.

  2. Empirical mode decomposition and long-range correlation analysis of sunspot time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Yu; Leung, Yee

    2010-01-01

    Sunspots, which are the best known and most variable features of the solar surface, affect our planet in many ways. The number of sunspots during a period of time is highly variable and arouses strong research interest. When multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is employed to study the fractal properties and long-range correlation of the sunspot series, some spurious crossover points might appear because of the periodic and quasi-periodic trends in the series. However many cycles of solar activities can be reflected by the sunspot time series. The 11-year cycle is perhaps the most famous cycle of the sunspot activity. These cycles pose problems for the investigation of the scaling behavior of sunspot time series. Using different methods to handle the 11-year cycle generally creates totally different results. Using MF-DFA, Movahed and co-workers employed Fourier truncation to deal with the 11-year cycle and found that the series is long-range anti-correlated with a Hurst exponent, H, of about 0.12. However, Hu and co-workers proposed an adaptive detrending method for the MF-DFA and discovered long-range correlation characterized by H≈0.74. In an attempt to get to the bottom of the problem in the present paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a data-driven adaptive method, is applied to first extract the components with different dominant frequencies. MF-DFA is then employed to study the long-range correlation of the sunspot time series under the influence of these components. On removing the effects of these periods, the natural long-range correlation of the sunspot time series can be revealed. With the removal of the 11-year cycle, a crossover point located at around 60 months is discovered to be a reasonable point separating two different time scale ranges, H≈0.72 and H≈1.49. And on removing all cycles longer than 11 years, we have H≈0.69 and H≈0.28. The three cycle-removing methods—Fourier truncation, adaptive detrending and the

  3. Calibration device for wide range monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodoku, Masaya; Sato, Toshifumi.

    1989-01-01

    The calibration device for a wide range monitor according to the present invention can continuously calibrate the entire counting regions of a wide range monitor. The wide range monitor detect the reactor power in the neutron source region by means of a pulse counting method and detects the reactor power in the intermediate region by means of a cambell method. A calibration signal outputting means is disposed for continuously outputting, as such calibration signals, pulse number varying signals in which the number of pulses per unit time varies depending on the reactor power in the neutron source region to be simulated and amplitude square means varying signal in which the mean square value of amplitude varies depending on the reactor power in the intermediate region to be simulated. By using both of the calibration signals, calibration can be conducted for the nuclear reactor power in the neutron source region and the intermediate region even if the calibration is made over two regions, further, calibration for the period present over the two region can be conducted easily as well. (I.S.)

  4. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  5. Low larval densities in northern populations reinforce range expansion by a Mediterranean damselfly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Therry, Lieven; Swaegers, Janne; Dinh, Khuong Van

    2016-01-01

    indicated higher food availability at low conspecific densities. Interestingly, the initial density treatment had stronger effect than densities experienced at the time of quantification on survival during the pre-freezing winter period and body condition estimates at the end of the experiment, indicating...... also delayed effects of the initial density treatment. Survival throughout a freezing period indicated extreme winter conditions are not likely a limiting factor in the range expansion of this Mediterranean species. 4. The increased survival and individual growth rates (through causing shifts......1. Contemporary climate change triggers a poleward range shift in many species. A growing number of studies document evolutionary changes in traits accelerating range expansion (such as growth rate and dispersal-related traits). In contrast, the direct impact of decreasing conspecific densities...

  6. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass

    2009-01-01

    Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m−2·10 yr−1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat

  7. Age-specific infectious period shapes dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia R; Besser, Thomas E; Páez, David J; Andrews, Kimberly R; Matthews, Patrick E; Waits, Lisette P; Hudson, Peter J; Cassirer, E Frances

    2017-10-01

    Superspreading, the phenomenon where a small proportion of individuals contribute disproportionately to new infections, has profound effects on disease dynamics. Superspreading can arise through variation in contacts, infectiousness or infectious periods. The latter has received little attention, yet it drives the dynamics of many diseases of critical public health, livestock health and conservation concern. Here, we present rare evidence of variation in infectious periods underlying a superspreading phenomenon in a free-ranging wildlife system. We detected persistent infections of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, the primary causative agent of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), in a small number of older individuals that were homozygous at an immunologically relevant genetic locus. Interactions among age-structure, genetic composition and infectious periods may drive feedbacks in disease dynamics that determine the magnitude of population response to infection. Accordingly, variation in initial conditions may explain divergent population responses to infection that range from recovery to catastrophic decline and extirpation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  8. Periodic boundary conditions and the error-controlled fast multipole method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabadshow, Ivo

    2012-08-22

    The simulation of pairwise interactions in huge particle ensembles is a vital issue in scientific research. Especially the calculation of long-range interactions poses limitations to the system size, since these interactions scale quadratically with the number of particles. Fast summation techniques like the Fast Multipole Method (FMM) can help to reduce the complexity to O(N). This work extends the possible range of applications of the FMM to periodic systems in one, two and three dimensions with one unique approach. Together with a tight error control, this contribution enables the simulation of periodic particle systems for different applications without the need to know and tune the FMM specific parameters. The implemented error control scheme automatically optimizes the parameters to obtain an approximation for the minimal runtime for a given energy error bound.

  9. Range expansion by Passer montanus in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, J.L.; Roberts, C.P.; Allen, Craig R.; Brown, M.B.; Moulton, M.P.

    2017-01-01

    Passer montanus became established in a small area of central North America following its introduction in 1870. P. montanus underwent minimal range expansion in the first 100 years following introduction. However, the North American population of P. montanus is now growing in size and expanding in geographic distribution, having expanded approximately 125 km to the north by 1970. We quantify the distance of spread by P. montanus from its introduction site in the greater St. Louis, Missouri-Illinois, USA area, using distributional (presence) data from the National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count surveys for the period of 1951 to 2014. Linear regressions of the average annual range center of P. montanus confirmed significant shifts to the north at a rate of 3.3 km/year (P Linear regressions of the linear and angular distance of range center indicates significant northern movement (change in angle of mean range center; P < 0.001) since 1951. Our results quantify the extent of a northward range expansion, and suggesting a probable spread of this species northward.

  10. Evidence for an approx.300 day period in Cygnus X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priedhorsky, W.C.; Terrell, J.; Holt, S.S.

    1983-01-01

    We present the time history of X-ray emission from Cyg X-1 over an 11 year period, with 10 day resolution. The data were obtained by experiments on the Vela 5B (1969--1979) and Ariel 5 (1974--1980) satellites. Cyg X-1 varies by approx.25% with a 294 +- 4 day period. This modulation is apparently unrelated to the known transitions between the source high and low states. Flux minima occur at 1974.05+nP. The observed period is within the possible range for the precession period of an accretion disk, or of the companion star HDE 226868, in the Cyg X-1 system

  11. Assessing the effects of Climate Change on Urban Pluvial Flooding to provide a Risk Management Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rianna, G.; Mercogliano, P.

    2017-12-01

    concentration scenarios (higher for RCP8.5) and investigated time horizon (more significant for 2071-2100 time span). Furthermore, results provided by hydraulic models clearly highlight the inadequacy of the actual drainage system especially under a RCP8.5-driven scenario showing large portions of the city center flooded.

  12. Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Takemura

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs. Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with reduced aerosol negative forcing.

  13. Context and meter enhance long-range planning in music performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian eMathias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural responses demonstrate evidence of resonance, or oscillation, during the production of periodic auditory events. Music contains periodic auditory events that give rise to a sense of beat, which in turn generates a sense of meter on the basis of multiple periodicities. Metrical hierarchies may aid memory for music by facilitating similarity-based associations among sequence events at different periodic distances that unfold in longer contexts. A fundamental question is how metrical associations arising from a musical context influence memory during music performance. Longer contexts may facilitate metrical associations at higher hierarchical levels more than shorter contexts, a prediction of the range model, a formal model of planning processes in music performance (Palmer and Pfordresher, 2003; Pfordresher et al., 2007. Serial ordering errors, in which intended sequence events are produced in incorrect sequence positions, were measured as skilled pianists performed musical pieces that contained excerpts embedded in long or short musical contexts. Pitch errors arose from metrically similar positions and further sequential distances more often when the excerpt was embedded in long contexts compared to short contexts. Musicians’ keystroke intensities and error rates also revealed influences of metrical hierarchies, which differed for performances in long and short contexts. The range model accounted for contextual effects and provided better fits to empirical findings when metrical associations between sequence events were included. Longer sequence contexts may facilitate planning during sequence production by increasing conceptual similarity between hierarchically associated events. These findings are consistent with the notion that neural oscillations at multiple periodicities may strengthen metrical associations across sequence events during planning.

  14. Period meter output in response to terminated ramps of reactivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cummins, J D [Dynamics Group, Control and Instrumentation Division, Atomic Energy Establishment, Winfrith, Dorchester, Dorset (United Kingdom)

    1962-07-15

    The time behaviour of the period meter output has been determined for a range of total reactivity injections and reactivity rates. Some results which are directly applicable to graphite gas cooled reactors are given. (author)

  15. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-01-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity-snow conditions-meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general -20-30% decrease and interannual variability is forecasted, relatively strong

  16. A short period undulator for MAX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahola, H.; Meinander, T.

    1992-01-01

    A hybrid undulator for generation of high brilliance synchrotron radiation in the photon energy range of 60--600 eV at the 550 MeV electron storage ring MAX in Lund, Sweden has been designed and built at the Technical Research Centre of Finland in close collaboration with MAX-lab of Lund University. At the rather modest electron energy of MAX this photon energy range can be reached only by an undulator featuring a fairly short period and the smallest possible magnetic gap. Even then, higher harmonics (up to the 13th) of the radiation spectrum must be utilized. An optimization of the magnetic design resulted in a hybrid configuration of NdFeB magnets and soft iron poles with a period of 24 mm and a minimum magnetic gap of 7--10 mm. A variable-gap vacuum chamber allows reduction of the vacuum gap from a maximum of 20 mm, needed for injection, down to 6 mm during stored beam operation. A special design of this chamber permits a magnetic gap between pole tips that is only 1 mm larger than the vacuum gap. Adequate field uniformity was ensured by calibration of magnets to equal strength at their true operating point and verification of the homogeneity of their magnetization. Magnetic measurements included Hall probe scans of the undulator field and flip coil evaluations of the field integral

  17. Turning the tide: comparison of tidal flow by periodic sea level fluctuation and by periodic bed tilting in scaled landscape experiments of estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhans, Maarten G.; van der Vegt, Maarten; Leuven, Jasper; Braat, Lisanne; Markies, Henk; Simmelink, Arjan; Roosendaal, Chris; van Eijk, Arjan; Vrijbergen, Paul; van Maarseveen, Marcel

    2017-11-01

    Analogue models or scale experiments of estuaries and short tidal basins are notoriously difficult to create in the laboratory because of the difficulty to obtain currents strong enough to transport sand. Our recently discovered method to drive tidal currents by periodically tilting the entire flume leads to intense sediment transport in both the ebb and flood phase, causing dynamic channel and shoal patterns. However, it remains unclear whether tilting produces periodic flows with characteristic tidal properties that are sufficiently similar to those in nature for the purpose of landscape experiments. Moreover, it is not well understood why the flows driven by periodic sea level fluctuation, as in nature, are not sufficient for morphodynamic experiments. Here we compare for the first time the tidal currents driven by sea level fluctuations and by tilting. Experiments were run in a 20 × 3 m straight flume, the Metronome, for a range of tilting periods and with one or two boundaries open at constant head with free inflow and outflow. Also, experiments were run with flow driven by periodic sea level fluctuations. We recorded surface flow velocity along the flume with particle imaging velocimetry and measured water levels along the flume. We compared the results to a one-dimensional model with shallow flow equations for a rough bed, which was tested on the experiments and applied to a range of length scales bridging small experiments and large estuaries. We found that the Reynolds method results in negligible flows along the flume except for the first few metres, whereas flume tilting results in nearly uniform reversing flow velocities along the entire flume that are strong enough to move sand. Furthermore, tidal excursion length relative to basin length and the dominance of friction over inertia is similar in tidal experiments and reality. The sediment mobility converges between the Reynolds method and tilting for flumes hundreds of metres long, which is impractical

  18. Turning the tide: comparison of tidal flow by periodic sea level fluctuation and by periodic bed tilting in scaled landscape experiments of estuaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Kleinhans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Analogue models or scale experiments of estuaries and short tidal basins are notoriously difficult to create in the laboratory because of the difficulty to obtain currents strong enough to transport sand. Our recently discovered method to drive tidal currents by periodically tilting the entire flume leads to intense sediment transport in both the ebb and flood phase, causing dynamic channel and shoal patterns. However, it remains unclear whether tilting produces periodic flows with characteristic tidal properties that are sufficiently similar to those in nature for the purpose of landscape experiments. Moreover, it is not well understood why the flows driven by periodic sea level fluctuation, as in nature, are not sufficient for morphodynamic experiments. Here we compare for the first time the tidal currents driven by sea level fluctuations and by tilting. Experiments were run in a 20  ×  3 m straight flume, the Metronome, for a range of tilting periods and with one or two boundaries open at constant head with free inflow and outflow. Also, experiments were run with flow driven by periodic sea level fluctuations. We recorded surface flow velocity along the flume with particle imaging velocimetry and measured water levels along the flume. We compared the results to a one-dimensional model with shallow flow equations for a rough bed, which was tested on the experiments and applied to a range of length scales bridging small experiments and large estuaries. We found that the Reynolds method results in negligible flows along the flume except for the first few metres, whereas flume tilting results in nearly uniform reversing flow velocities along the entire flume that are strong enough to move sand. Furthermore, tidal excursion length relative to basin length and the dominance of friction over inertia is similar in tidal experiments and reality. The sediment mobility converges between the Reynolds method and tilting for flumes hundreds of

  19. Normal lactate concentration range in the neonatal brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomiyasu, Moyoko; Aida, Noriko; Shibasaki, Jun; Tachibana, Yasuhiko; Endo, Mamiko; Nozawa, Kumiko; Shimizu, Eiji; Tsuji, Hiroshi; Obata, Takayuki

    2016-11-01

    Lactate peaks are occasionally observed during in vivo magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) scans of the neonatal brain, even in healthy patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the normal range of neonatal brain lactate concentration, as a definitive normal range would be clinically valuable. Using a clinical 3T scanner (echo/repetition times, 30/5000ms), single-voxel MRS data were obtained from the basal ganglia (BG) and centrum semiovale (CS) in 48 healthy neonates (postconceptional age (PCA), 30-43weeks), nine infants (age, 1-12months old), and 20 children (age, 4-15years). Lactate concentrations were calculated using an MRS signal quantification program, LCModel. Correlations between regional lactate concentration and PCA (neonates), or age (all subjects) were investigated. Absolute lactate concentrations of the BG and CS were as follows: neonates, 0.77mM (0-2.02) [median (range)] and 0.77 (0-1.42), respectively; infants, 0.38 (0-0.79) and 0.49 (0.17-1.17); and children, 0.17 (0-0.76) and 0.22 (0-0.80). Overall, subjects' lactate concentrations decreased significantly with age (Spearman: BG, n=61, ρ=-0.38, p=0.003; CS, n=68, ρ=-0.57, p<0.001). However, during the neonatal period no correlations were detected between lactate concentration in either region and PCA. We determined normal ranges of neonatal lactate concentration, which may prove useful for diagnostic purposes. Further studies regarding changes in brain lactate concentration during development would help clarify the reasons for higher concentrations observed during the neonatal period, and contribute to improvements in diagnoses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Photonic bandgap structures for long-range surface plasmon polaritons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bozhevolnyi, Sergey I.; Boltasseva, Alexandra; Søndergaard, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Propagation of long-range surface plasmon polaritons (LR-SPPs) along periodically thickness-modulated metal stripes embedded in dielectric is studied both theoretically and experimentally for light wavelengths in the telecom range. We demonstrate that symmetric (with respect to the film surface) nm......-size thickness variations result in the pronounced band gap effect, and obtain very good agreement between measured and simulated (transmission and reflection) spectra. This effect is exploited to realize a compact wavelength add-drop filter with the bandwidth of -20 nm centered at 1550 nm. The possibilities...

  1. Netherlands Army Long Range Anti Armour Study - Status Report

    OpenAIRE

    Schagen, P.A.B. van

    1989-01-01

    At the end of the nineties the munition for the TOW weapon system in use at The Netherlands army, has to be replaced. The Life of Type of The Tow carrier ends in 2005. The long range anti armour study is to gain insight into the possibilities and limitations for the Netherlands army to deploy future (time period 1995-2000) weapon systems in the long range anti armour battle. The first study results are expected at the end of 1989. The study is sponsored by the Netherlands army and is carried ...

  2. Periodic optical variability of radio-detected ultracool dwarfs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harding, L. K.; Golden, A.; Singh, Navtej; Sheehan, B.; Butler, R. F.; Hallinan, G.; Boyle, R. P.; Zavala, R. T.

    2013-01-01

    A fraction of very low mass stars and brown dwarfs are known to be radio active, in some cases producing periodic pulses. Extensive studies of two such objects have also revealed optical periodic variability, and the nature of this variability remains unclear. Here, we report on multi-epoch optical photometric monitoring of six radio-detected dwarfs, spanning the ∼M8-L3.5 spectral range, conducted to investigate the ubiquity of periodic optical variability in radio-detected ultracool dwarfs. This survey is the most sensitive ground-based study carried out to date in search of periodic optical variability from late-type dwarfs, where we obtained 250 hr of monitoring, delivering photometric precision as low as ∼0.15%. Five of the six targets exhibit clear periodicity, in all cases likely associated with the rotation period of the dwarf, with a marginal detection found for the sixth. Our data points to a likely association between radio and optical periodic variability in late-M/early-L dwarfs, although the underlying physical cause of this correlation remains unclear. In one case, we have multiple epochs of monitoring of the archetype of pulsing radio dwarfs, the M9 TVLM 513–46546, spanning a period of 5 yr, which is sufficiently stable in phase to allow us to establish a period of 1.95958 ± 0.00005 hr. This phase stability may be associated with a large-scale stable magnetic field, further strengthening the correlation between radio activity and periodic optical variability. Finally, we find a tentative spin-orbit alignment of one component of the very low mass binary, LP 349–25.

  3. Periodic optical variability of radio-detected ultracool dwarfs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harding, L. K.; Golden, A.; Singh, Navtej; Sheehan, B.; Butler, R. F. [Centre for Astronomy, National University of Ireland, Galway, University Road, Galway (Ireland); Hallinan, G. [Cahill Center for Astrophysics, California Institute of Technology, 1200 East California Boulevard, MC 249-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Boyle, R. P. [Vatican Observatory Research Group, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Zavala, R. T., E-mail: lkh@astro.caltech.edu [United States Naval Observatory, Flagstaff Station, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 (United States)

    2013-12-20

    A fraction of very low mass stars and brown dwarfs are known to be radio active, in some cases producing periodic pulses. Extensive studies of two such objects have also revealed optical periodic variability, and the nature of this variability remains unclear. Here, we report on multi-epoch optical photometric monitoring of six radio-detected dwarfs, spanning the ∼M8-L3.5 spectral range, conducted to investigate the ubiquity of periodic optical variability in radio-detected ultracool dwarfs. This survey is the most sensitive ground-based study carried out to date in search of periodic optical variability from late-type dwarfs, where we obtained 250 hr of monitoring, delivering photometric precision as low as ∼0.15%. Five of the six targets exhibit clear periodicity, in all cases likely associated with the rotation period of the dwarf, with a marginal detection found for the sixth. Our data points to a likely association between radio and optical periodic variability in late-M/early-L dwarfs, although the underlying physical cause of this correlation remains unclear. In one case, we have multiple epochs of monitoring of the archetype of pulsing radio dwarfs, the M9 TVLM 513–46546, spanning a period of 5 yr, which is sufficiently stable in phase to allow us to establish a period of 1.95958 ± 0.00005 hr. This phase stability may be associated with a large-scale stable magnetic field, further strengthening the correlation between radio activity and periodic optical variability. Finally, we find a tentative spin-orbit alignment of one component of the very low mass binary, LP 349–25.

  4. THEORETICAL CEPHEID PERIOD-LUMINOSITY AND PERIOD-COLOR RELATIONS IN SPITZER IRAC BANDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngeow, Chow-Choong; Marconi, Marcella; Musella, Ilaria; Cignoni, Michele; Kanbur, Shashsi M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the synthetic period-luminosity (P-L) relations in Spitzer's IRAC bands, based on a series of theoretical pulsation models with varying metal and helium abundance, were investigated. Selected sets of these synthetic P-L relations were compared to the empirical IRAC band P-L relations recently determined from Galactic and Magellanic Clouds Cepheids. For the Galactic case, synthetic P-L relations from model sets with (Y = 0.26, Z = 0.01), (Y = 0.26, Z = 0.02), and (Y = 0.28, Z = 0.02) agree with the empirical Galactic P-L relations derived from the Hubble Space Telescope parallaxes. For Magellanic Cloud Cepheids, the synthetic P-L relations from model sets with (Y = 0.25, Z = 0.008) agree with both of the empirical Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud P-L relations. Analysis of the synthetic P-L relations from all model sets suggested that the IRAC band P-L relations may not be independent of metallicity, as the P-L slopes and intercepts could be affected by the metallicity and/or helium abundance. We also derive the synthetic period-color (P-C) relations in the IRAC bands. Non-vanishing synthetic P-C relations were found for certain combinations of IRAC band filters and metallicity. However, the synthetic P-C relations disagreed with the [3.6]-[8.0] P-C relation recently found for the Galactic Cepheids. The synthetic [3.6]-[4.5] P-C slope from the (Y = 0.25, Z = 0.008) model set, on the other hand, is in excellent agreement to the empirical LMC P-C counterpart, if a period range 1.0 < log (P) < 1.8 is adopted.

  5. Periodic feedback stabilization for linear periodic evolution equations

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Gengsheng

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces a number of recent advances regarding periodic feedback stabilization for linear and time periodic evolution equations. First, it presents selected connections between linear quadratic optimal control theory and feedback stabilization theory for linear periodic evolution equations. Secondly, it identifies several criteria for the periodic feedback stabilization from the perspective of geometry, algebra and analyses respectively. Next, it describes several ways to design periodic feedback laws. Lastly, the book introduces readers to key methods for designing the control machines. Given its coverage and scope, it offers a helpful guide for graduate students and researchers in the areas of control theory and applied mathematics.

  6. Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

    2018-01-01

    AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

  7. Total nuclear photoabsorption cross section in the range 0.2-1.0 GeV for nuclei throughout the periodic table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terranova, M.L.; Tavares, O.A.P.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis of the total photoabsorption cross section for nuclei ranging from 4 He up to 238 U has been performed in the energy range 0.2-1.0 GeV. Mean total photoabsorption cross sections have been obtained by summing up the contributions from partial photoreactions, and found to follow an A 1 -dependence in the 0.2-1.0 GeV range. A review of the available total photoabsorption cross section data is also presented. Comparisons have been made with cross section values calculated by considering both the quasi-deuteron and π-meson photoproduction mechanism of primary nuclear photointeraction. (orig.)

  8. Future extreme water levels and floodplains in Gironde Estuary considering climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.

    2012-04-01

    Within THESEUS European project, an overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. It was then used to study the evolution of floodplains' location and areas towards 2100 in the entire Estuary. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on maregraphic observations for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimistic one of the French national institute for climate change: 60 cm in 2100. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The analysis of surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model towards upstream. Concerning floodplains, those corresponding to return periods from 2 to 100 years for present conditions and 3 slices [2010; 2039], [2040; 2069] and [2070; 2099] have been mapped for 3 areas in Gironde Estuary : around Le Verdon, at the confluence between Garonne and Dordogne, and near Bordeaux. Concerning the evolution

  9. Reduction of Friction of Metals Using Laser-Induced Periodic Surface Nanostructures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuo Wang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We report on the effect of femtosecond-laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSS on the tribological properties of stainless steel. Uniform periodic nanostructures were produced on AISI 304L (American Iron and Steel Institute steel grade steel surfaces using an 800-nm femtosecond laser. The spatial periods of LIPSS measured by field emission scanning electron microscopy ranged from 530 to 570 nm. The tribological properties of smooth and textured surfaces with periodic nanostructures were investigated using reciprocating ball-on-flat tests against AISI 440C balls under both dry and starved oil lubricated conditions. The friction coefficient of LIPSS covered surfaces has shown a lower value than that of the smooth surface. The induced periodic nanostructures demonstrated marked potential for reducing the friction coefficient compared with the smooth surface.

  10. All-periodically poled, high-power, continuous-wave, single-frequency tunable UV source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aadhi, A; Chaitanya N, Apurv; Jabir, M V; Singh, R P; Samanta, G K

    2015-01-01

    We report on experimental demonstration of an all-periodically poled, continuous-wave (CW), high-power, single-frequency, ultra-violet (UV) source. Based on internal second-harmonic-generation (SHG) of a CW singly resonant optical parametric oscillator (OPO) pumped in the green, the UV source provides tunable radiation across 398.94-417.08 nm. The compact source comprising of a 25-mm-long MgO-doped periodically poled stoichiometric lithium tantalate (MgO:sPPLT) crystal of period Λ(SLT)=8.5  μm for OPO and a 5-mm-long, multi-grating (Λ(KTP)=3.3, 3.4, 3.6 and 3.8 μm), periodically poled potassium titanium phosphate (PPKTP) for intra-cavity SHG, provides as much as 336 mW of UV power at 398.94 nm, corresponding to a green-to-UV conversion efficiency of ∼6.7%. In addition, the singly resonant OPO (SRO) provides 840 mW of idler at 1541.61 nm and substantial signal power of 108 mW at 812.33 nm transmitted through the high reflective cavity mirrors. UV source provides single-frequency radiation with instantaneous line-width of ∼18.3  MHz and power >100  mW in Gaussian beam profile (ellipticity >92%) across the entire tuning range. Access to lower UV wavelengths requires smaller grating periods to compensate high phase-mismatch resulting from high material dispersion in the UV wavelength range. Additionally, we have measured the normalized temperature and spectral acceptance bandwidth of PPKTP crystal in the UV wavelength range to be ∼2.25°C·cm and ∼0.15  nm·cm, respectively.

  11. Total nuclear photoabsorption cross section in the range 0.2 - 1.0 GeV for nuclei throughout the periodic table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terranova, M.L.; Tavares, O.A.P.

    1993-01-01

    An analysis of the total photoabsorption cross section for nuclei ranging from 4 He up to 238 U has been performed in the energy range 0.2-1.0 GeV. Mean total photoabsorption cross sections have been obtained by summing up the contributions from partial photo reactions, and found to follow an A l -dependence in the 0.2-1.0 GeV range. A review of the available total photoabsorption cross section data is also presented. Comparisons have been made with cross section values calculated by considering both the quasi-deuteron and π-meson photoproduction mechanism of primary nuclear photo interaction. (author)

  12. A Wide Lock-Range Referenceless CDR with Automatic Frequency Acquisition

    OpenAIRE

    Seon-Kyoo Lee; Young-Sang Kim; Hong-June Park; Jae-Yoon Sim

    2011-01-01

    A wide lock-range referenceless CDR circuit is proposed with an automatic tracking of data rate. For efficient frequency acquisition, a DLL-based loop is used with a simple phase/frequency detector to extract 1-bit period of input data stream. The CDR, implemented in a 65 nm CMOS, shows a lock range of 650 Mb/s-to-8 Gb/s and BER of less than 10-12 at 8 Gb/s with low power consumption.

  13. A Wide Lock-Range Referenceless CDR with Automatic Frequency Acquisition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon-Kyoo Lee

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A wide lock-range referenceless CDR circuit is proposed with an automatic tracking of data rate. For efficient frequency acquisition, a DLL-based loop is used with a simple phase/frequency detector to extract 1-bit period of input data stream. The CDR, implemented in a 65 nm CMOS, shows a lock range of 650 Mb/s-to-8 Gb/s and BER of less than 10-12 at 8 Gb/s with low power consumption.

  14. Electromagnetic radiation of electrons in periodic structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potylitsyn, Alexander Petrovich

    2011-01-01

    Periodic magnetic structures (undulators) are widely used in accelerators to generate monochromatic undulator radiation (UR) in the range from far infrared to the hard X-ray region. Another periodic crystalline structure is used to produce quasimonochromatic polarized photon beams via the coherent bremsstrahlung mechanism (CBS). Due to such characteristics as monochromaticity, polarization and adjustability, these types of radiation is of large interest for applied and basic research of accelerator-emitted radiation. The book provides a detailed overview of the fundamental principles behind electromagnetic radiation emitted from accelerated charged particles (e.g. UR, CBS, radiation of fast electrons in Laser flash fields) as well as a unified description of relatively new radiation mechanisms which attracted great interest in recent years. This are the so-called polarization radiation excited by the Coulomb field of incident particles in periodic structures, parametric X-rays, resonant transition radiation and the Smith-Purcell effect. Characteristics of such radiation sources and perspectives of their usage are discussed. The recent experimental results as well as their interpretation are presented. (orig.)

  15. Socioeconomic Implications of Achieving 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Climate Targets under Scientific Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, X.; Takahashi, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Tanaka, K.; Shiogama, H.; Emori, S.; LIU, J.; Hanasaki, N.; Hijioka, Y.; Masui, T.

    2017-12-01

    Large uncertainty exists in the temperature projections, including contributions from carbon cycle, climate system and aerosols. For the integrated assessment models (IAMs), like DICE, FUND and PAGE, however, the scientific uncertainties mainly rely on the distribution of (equilibrium) climate sensitivity. This study aims at evaluating the emission pathways by limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC or 1.5 ºC after 2100 considering scientific uncertainties, and exploring how socioeconomic indicators are affected by such scientific uncertainties. We use a stochastic version of the SCM4OPT, with an uncertainty measurement by considering alternative ranges of key parameters. Three climate cases, namely, i) base case of SSP2, ii) limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC after 2100 and iii) limiting temperature increase below 1.5 ºC after 2100, and three types of probabilities - i) >66% probability or likely, ii) >50% probability or more likely than not and iii) the mean of the probability distribution, are considered in the study. The results show that, i) for the 2.0ºC case, the likely CO2 reduction rate in 2100 ranges from 75.5%-102.4%, with mean value of 88.1%, and 93.0%-113.1% (mean 102.5%) for the 1.5ºC case; ii) a likely range of forcing effect is found for the 2.0 ºC case (2.7-3.9 Wm-2) due to scientific uncertainty, and 1.9-3.1 Wm-2 for the 1.5 ºC case; iii) the carbon prices within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 3 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case; iv) the abatement costs within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 4 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case. Nine C4MIP carbon cycle models and nineteen CMIP3 AOGCMs are used to account for the scientific uncertainties, following MAGICC 6.0. These uncertainties will result in a likely radiative forcing range of 6.1-7.5 Wm-2 and a likely temperature increase of 3.1-4.5 ºC in 2100 for the base case of SSP2. If we evaluate the 2 ºC target by limiting the

  16. Periodic differential equations an introduction to Mathieu, Lamé, and allied functions

    CERN Document Server

    Arscott, Felix M; Stark, M; Ulam, S

    1964-01-01

    Periodic Differential Equations: An Introduction to Mathieu, Lamé, and Allied Functions covers the fundamental problems and techniques of solution of periodic differential equations. This book is composed of 10 chapters that present important equations and the special functions they generate, ranging from Mathieu's equation to the intractable ellipsoidal wave equation.This book starts with a survey of the main problems related to the formation of periodic differential equations. The subsequent chapters deal with the general theory of Mathieu's equation, Mathieu functions of integral order, and

  17. Periodic materials-based vibration attenuation in layered foundations: experimental validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiang, H J; Shi, Z F; Wang, S J; Mo, Y L

    2012-01-01

    Guided by the recent advances in solid-state research in periodic materials, a new type of layered periodic foundation consisting of concrete and rubber layers is experimentally investigated in this paper. The distinct feature of this new foundation is its frequency band gaps. When the frequency contents of a wave fall within the range of the frequency band gaps, the wave, and hence its energy, will be weakened or cannot propagate through the foundation, so the foundation itself can serve as a vibration isolator. Using the theory of elastodynamics and the Bloch–Floquet theorem, the mechanism of band gaps in periodic composites is presented, and a finite element model is built to show the isolation characteristic of a finite dimensional periodic foundation. Based on these analytical results, moreover, a scaled model frame and a periodic foundation were fabricated and shake table tests of the frame on the periodic foundation were performed. Ambient, strong and harmonic vibration attenuations are found when the exciting frequencies fall into the band gaps. (fast track communication)

  18. Two-Phase Gas-Liquid Flow Structure Characteristics under Periodic Cross Forces Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Perevezentsev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a study of two-phase gas-liquid flow under the action of periodic cross forces. The work objective is to obtain experimental data for further analysis and have structure characteristics of the two-phase flow movement. For research, to obtain data without disturbing effect on the flow were used optic PIV (Particle Image Visualization methods because of their noninvasiveness. The cross forces influence was provided by an experimental stand design to change the angular amplitudes and the periods of channel movement cycle with two-phase flow. In the range of volume gas rates was shown a water flow rate versus the inclination angle of immovable riser section and the characteristic angular amplitudes and periods of riser section inclination cycle under periodic cross forces. Data on distribution of average water velocity in twophase flow in abovementioned cases were also obtained. These data allowed us to draw a conclusion that a velocity distribution depends on the angular amplitude and on the period of the riser section roll cycle. This article belongs to publications, which study two-phase flows with no disturbing effect on them. Obtained data give an insight into understanding a pattern of twophase gas-liquid flow under the action of periodic cross forces and can be used to verify the mathematical models of the CFD thermo-hydraulic codes. In the future, the work development expects taking measurements with more frequent interval in the ranges of angular amplitudes and periods of the channel movement cycle and create a mathematical model to show the action of periodic cross forces on two-phase gas-liquid flow.

  19. THEORETICAL CEPHEID PERIOD-LUMINOSITY AND PERIOD-COLOR RELATIONS IN SPITZER IRAC BANDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngeow, Chow-Choong [Graduate Institute of Astronomy, National Central University, Jhongli City 32001, Taiwan (China); Marconi, Marcella; Musella, Ilaria [Osservatorio Astronomico di Capodimonte, Via Moiariello 16, 80131 Napoli (Italy); Cignoni, Michele [Department of Astronomy, Bologna University, via Ranzani 1, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Kanbur, Shashsi M. [Department of Physics, State University of New York at Oswego, Oswego, NY 13126 (United States)

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, the synthetic period-luminosity (P-L) relations in Spitzer's IRAC bands, based on a series of theoretical pulsation models with varying metal and helium abundance, were investigated. Selected sets of these synthetic P-L relations were compared to the empirical IRAC band P-L relations recently determined from Galactic and Magellanic Clouds Cepheids. For the Galactic case, synthetic P-L relations from model sets with (Y = 0.26, Z = 0.01), (Y = 0.26, Z = 0.02), and (Y = 0.28, Z = 0.02) agree with the empirical Galactic P-L relations derived from the Hubble Space Telescope parallaxes. For Magellanic Cloud Cepheids, the synthetic P-L relations from model sets with (Y = 0.25, Z = 0.008) agree with both of the empirical Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud P-L relations. Analysis of the synthetic P-L relations from all model sets suggested that the IRAC band P-L relations may not be independent of metallicity, as the P-L slopes and intercepts could be affected by the metallicity and/or helium abundance. We also derive the synthetic period-color (P-C) relations in the IRAC bands. Non-vanishing synthetic P-C relations were found for certain combinations of IRAC band filters and metallicity. However, the synthetic P-C relations disagreed with the [3.6]-[8.0] P-C relation recently found for the Galactic Cepheids. The synthetic [3.6]-[4.5] P-C slope from the (Y = 0.25, Z = 0.008) model set, on the other hand, is in excellent agreement to the empirical LMC P-C counterpart, if a period range 1.0 < log (P) < 1.8 is adopted.

  20. Effect of surface pattern on the adhesive friction of elastomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu-Bavouzet, Fanny; Cayer-Barrioz, Juliette; Le Bot, Alain; Brochard-Wyart, Françoise; Buguin, Axel

    2010-09-01

    We present experimental results for the friction of a flat surface against a hexagonally patterned surface, both being made of PolyDiMethylSiloxane. We simultaneously measure forces of range 10 mN and observe the contact under sliding velocities of about 100 μm/s. We observe adhesive friction on three different pattern heights (80, 310, and 2100 nm). Two kinds of contacts have been observed: the flat surface is in close contact with the patterned one (called intimate contact, observed for 80 nm) or only suspended on the tops on the asperities (called laid contact, observed for 2100 nm). In the range of velocities used, the contact during friction is similar to the static one. Furthermore, our experimental system presents a contact transition during friction for h=310 nm.

  1. Long range coherence in free electron lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colson, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    The simple free electron laser (FEL) design uses a static, periodic, transverse magnetic field to undulate relativistic electrons traveling along its axis. This allows coupling to a co-propagating optical wave and results in bunching to produce coherent radiation. The advantages of the FEL are continuous tunability, operation at wavelengths ranging from centimeters to angstroms, and high efficiency resulting from the fact that the interaction region only contains light, relativistic electrons, and a magnetic field. Theoretical concepts and operational principles are discussed.

  2. Chaos to periodicity and periodicity to chaos by periodic perturbations in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Qianshu; Zhu Rui

    2004-01-01

    A three-variable model of the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction system subject to external sinusoidal perturbations is investigated by means of frequency spectrum analysis. In the period-1 window of the model, the transitions from periodicity to chaos are observed; in the chaotic window, the transitions from chaos to periodicity are found. The former might be understood by the circle map of two coupled oscillators, and the latter is partly explained by the resonance between the main frequency of the chaos and the frequency of the external periodic perturbations

  3. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  4. Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

  5. Photonic band gap structures for long-range surface plasmon polaritons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bozhevolnyi, Sergey I.; Boltasseva, Alexandra; Søndergaard, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Propagation of long-range surface plasmon polaritons (LR-SPPs) along periodically thickness-modulated metal stripes embedded in dielectric is studied both theoretically and experimentally for light wavelengths in the telecom range. We demonstrate that symmetric (with respect to the film surface) nm......-size thickness variations result in the pronounced band gap effect, and obtain very good agreement between measured and simulated (transmission and reflection) spectra. This effect is exploited to realize a compact wavelength add-drop filter with the bandwidth of ~20 nm centered at 1550 nm. The possibilities...

  6. Study on temperature sensitivity of topological insulators based on long-period fiber grating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianhua; Zhao, Chenghai; Li, Jianbo; He, Mengdong

    2017-06-01

    Based on a long-period fiber grating, we conducted experimental research on the temperature sensitivity of topological insulators. The long-period fiber grating and topological insulators solution were encapsulated in a capillary tube using UV glue, and the temperature response was measured. Within a range of 35 to 75 centigrade, one resonance dip of a long-period fiber grating exhibits a redshift of 1.536 nm. The temperature sensitivity is about 7.7 times of an ordinary long-period fiber grating's sensitivity (0.005 nm/°C). A numerical simulation is also performed on the basis of the experiments.

  7. Stability diagrams for continuous wide-range control of two mutually delay-coupled semiconductor lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junges, Leandro; Gallas, Jason A C

    2015-01-01

    The dynamics of two mutually delay-coupled semiconductor lasers has been frequently studied experimentally, numerically, and analytically either for weak or strong detuning between the lasers. Here, we present a systematic numerical investigation spanning all detuning ranges. We report high-resolution stability diagrams for wide ranges of the main control parameters of the laser, as described by the Lang–Kobayashi model. In particular, we detail the parameter influence on dynamical performance and map the distribution of chaotic pulsations and self-generated periodic spiking with arbitrary periodicity. Special attention is given to the unfolding of regular pulse packages for both symmetric and non-symmetric configurations with respect to detuning. The influence of the delay –time on the self-organization of periodic and chaotic laser phases as a function of the coupling and detuning is also described in detail. (paper)

  8. Evolutionary period changes in rotating hot pre--white dwarf stars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawaler, S.D.; Winget, D.E.; Hansen, C.J.

    1985-11-15

    We have calculated and splitting of high order nonradial g-modes due to slow rotation in models of hot pre-white dwarf (''PWD'') stars of 0.60 M/sub sun/. We have investigated the effects of rotational spin-up, produced by gravitational contraction, on the rate of evolutionary period change for the cases of uniform and differential rotation. For models in the luminosity range of PG 1159-035 (Lapprox.100 L/sub sun/), we find that rotation rates of a few thousand seconds for modes with m< or approx. =-2 produce values of d(ln P)/dt that are consistent with the measurement of the rate of period change of the 516 second period of PG 1159-035.

  9. Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available climate map, it was decided that, over and above the use of historic climatic data, climate change should also be considered. An A2 climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht et al...

  10. The asymmetry of the entrainment range induced by the difference in intrinsic frequencies between two subgroups within the suprachiasmatic nucleus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2017-06-01

    The rhythms of physiological and behavioral activities in mammals, which are regulated by the main clock suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) in the brain, can not be only synchronized to the natural 24 h light-dark cycle, but also to cycles with artificial periods. The range of the artificial periods that the animal can be synchronized to is called entrainment range. In the absence of the light-dark cycle, the animal can also maintain the circadian rhythm with an endogenous period close to 24 h. Experiments found that the entrainment range is not symmetrical with respect to the endogenous period. In the present study, an explanation is given for the asymmetry based on a Kuramoto model which describes the neuronal network of the SCN. Our numerical simulations and theoretical analysis show that the asymmetry results from the difference in the intrinsic frequencies between two subgroups of the SCN, as well as the entrainment range is affected by the difference.

  11. Study of an Ising model with competing long- and short-range interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loew, U.; Emery, V.J.; Fabricius, K.; Kivelson, S.A.

    1994-01-01

    A classical spin-one lattice gas model is used to study the competition between short-range ferromagnetic coupling and long-range antiferromagnetic Coulomb interactions. The model is a coarse-grained representation of frustrated phase separation in high-temperature superconductors. The ground states are determined for the complete range of parameters by using a combination of numerical and analytical techniques. The crossover between ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic states proceeds via a rich structure of highly symmetric striped and checkerboard phases. There is no devil's staircase behavior because mixtures of stripes with different period phase separate

  12. Regional Climate Modelling of the Western Iberian Low-Level Wind Jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Semedo, Álvaro

    2016-04-01

    The Iberian coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is one the less studied boundary layer wind jet features in the Eastern Boundary Currents Systems (EBCS). These regions are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems, where the atmosphere-land-ocean feedbacks, which include marine boundary layer clouds, coastal jets, upwelling and inland soil temperature and moisture, play an important role in defining the regional climate along the sub-tropical mid-latitude western coastal areas. Recently, the present climate western Iberian CLLJ properties were extensively described using a high resolution regional climate hindcast simulation. A summer maximum frequency of occurrence above 30% was found, with mean maximum wind speeds around 15 ms-1, between 300 and 400m heights (at the jet core). Since the 1990s the climate change impact on the EBCS is being studied, nevertheless some lack of consensus still persists regarding the evolution of upwelling and other components of the climate system in these areas. However, recently some authors have shown that changes are to be expected concerning the timing, intensity and spatial homogeneity of coastal upwelling and of CLLJs, in response to future warming, especially at higher latitudes, namely in Iberia and Canaries. In this study, the first climate change assessment study regarding the Western Iberian CLLJ, using a high resolution (9km) regional climate simulation, is presented. The properties of this CLLJ are studied and compared using two 30 years simulations: one historical simulation for the 1971-2000 period, and another simulation for future climate, in agreement with the RCP8.5 scenario, for the 2071-2100 period. Robust and consistent changes are found: 1) the hourly frequency of occurrence of the CLLJ is expected to increase in summer along the western Iberian coast, from mean maximum values of around 35% to approximately 50%; 2) the relative increase of the CLLJ frequency of occurrence is higher in the north off western Iberia

  13. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  14. Extension of White's layered model to the full frequency range

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogelaar, Bouko; Smeulders, D.M.J.

    2007-01-01

    The low-frequency theory of the White model to predict the dispersion and intrinsic attenuation in a single porous skeleton saturated with periodic layers of two immiscible fluids is extended to the full frequency range using the Biot theory. The extension is similar to the Dutta–Odé model for

  15. The role of periodically varying discharge on river plume structure and transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yeping; Horner-Devine, Alexander R.; Avener, Margaret; Bevan, Shaun

    2018-04-01

    We present results from laboratory experiments that simulate the effects of periodically varying discharge on buoyant coastal plumes. Freshwater is discharged into a two meter diameter tank filled with saltwater on a rotating table. The mean inflow rate, tank rotation period and density of the ambient salt water are varied to simulate a range of inflow Froude and Rossby numbers. The amplitude and the period of the inflow modulation are varied across a range that simulates variability due to tides and storms. Using the optical thickness method, we measure the width and depth of the plume, plume volume and freshwater retention rate in the plume. With constant discharge, freshwater is retained in a growing anticyclonic bulge circulation near the river mouth, as observed in previous studies. When the discharge is varied, the bulge geometry oscillates between a circular plume structure that extends mainly in the offshore direction, and a compressed plume structure that extends mainly in the alongshore direction. The oscillations result in periodic variations in the width and depth of the bulge and the incidence angle formed where the bulge flow re-attaches with the coastal wall. The oscillations are more pronounced for longer modulation periods, but are relatively insensitive to the modulation amplitude. A phase difference between the time varying transport within the bulge and bulge geometry determines the fraction of the bulge flow discharged into the coastal current. As a result, the modulation period determines the variations in amount of freshwater that returns to the bulge. Freshwater retention in the bulge is increased in longer modulation periods and more pronounced for larger modulation amplitudes.

  16. Ranging behavior relates to welfare indicators pre- and post-range access in commercial free-range broilers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Peta S; Hemsworth, Paul H; Groves, Peter J; Gebhardt-Henrich, Sabine G; Rault, Jean-Loup

    2018-06-01

    Little is known about the effect of accessing an outdoor range on chicken welfare. We tracked individual ranging behavior of 538 mixed-sex Ross 308 chickens on a commercial farm across 4 flocks in winter and summer. Before range access, at 17 to 19 d of age, and post-range access, at 30 to 33 and 42 to 46 d of age in winter and summer flocks respectively, welfare indicators were measured on chickens (pre-range: winter N = 292; summer N = 280; post-range: winter N = 131; summer N = 140), including weight, gait score, dermatitis and plumage condition. Post-ranging autopsies were performed (winter: N = 170; summer: N = 60) to assess breast burn, leg health, and ascites. Fewer chickens accessed the range in winter flocks (32.5%) than summer flocks (82.1%). Few relationships between welfare and ranging were identified in winter, likely due to minimal ranging and the earlier age of post-ranging data collection compared to summer flocks. In summer flocks prior to range access, chickens that accessed the range weighed 4.9% less (P = 0.03) than chickens that did not access the range. Pre-ranging weight, gait score, and overall plumage cover predicted the amount of range use by ranging chickens in summer flocks (P ranging behavior. In summer flocks post-range access, ranging chickens weighed 12.8% less than non-ranging chickens (P range visits were associated with lower weight (P range was associated with lower weight (P range in summer is partly related to changes in broiler chicken welfare. Further investigations are required to determine causation.

  17. Adaptation Strategies of Wheat to Climate Change (Case Study: Ahvaz Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Delghandi

    2016-10-01

    P was derived for risk level 0.10 from CDF. Using the measured precipitation for the 30 years baseline period (1971-2000 and LARS-WG model, daily precipitation time series under risk level 0.10 were generated for future periods (2015-2045 and 2070-2100. Mentioned process in above was performed for temperature. Afterwards, wheat growth was simulated during future and baseline periods using DSSAT, CERES-Wheat model. DSSAT, CERES4.5 is a model based on the crop growth module in which crop growth and development are controlled by phenological development processes. The DSSAT model contains the soil water, soil dynamic, soil temperature, soil nitrogen and carbon, individual plant growth module and crop management module (including planting, harvesting, irrigation, fertilizer and residue modules. This model is not only used to simulate the crop yield, but also to explore the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and irrigated water. For model validation, field data from different years of observations were used in this study. Experimental data for the simulation were collected at the experimental farm of the Khuzestan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center (KANRC, located at Ahwaz in south western Iran. Results and Discussion: Results showed that wheat growth season was shortened under climate change, especially during 2070-2100 periods. Daily evapotranspiration increased and cumulative evapotranspiration decreased due to increasing daily temperatures and shortening of growth season, respectively. Comparing the wheat yield under climate change with base period based on the considered risk value (0.10 showed that wheat yield in 2015-2045 and 2070-2100 was decreased about 4 and 15 percent, respectively. Four adaptation strategies were assessed (shifting in the planting date, changing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer, irrigation regime and breeding strategies in response to climate change. Results indicated that Nov, 21 and Dec, 11 are the best

  18. Anomalous short period geomagnetic variations at two stations in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunaratnam, K.

    1986-08-01

    An analysis of the rates of change in the geomagnetic field components in the period range 20-600 sec recorded at Kondavil and Hikkaduwa, two stations in the equatorial electrojet belt near the northern and south western coasts respectively of Sri Lanka, shows anomalous variations. The results confirm induced current concentration in the Palk Strait and deflection of induced currents around the southerncoast of Sri Lanka postulated by earlier workers from observations of SSC and Bay events at Indian stations and from analogue and numerical model studies. At Kondavil, which is situated close to the geomagnetic equator, no appreciable difference in the night-time and day-time values of ΔZ/ΔH and ΔD/ΔH ratios was noticed while at Hikkaduwa, a station situated under the edge of the equatorial electrojet belt, a day-time enhancement of ΔZ/ΔH ratios was found at all periods in the observed range. An enhancement of the H component at Colombo over that at Hikkaduwa was also found at short periods, the enhancement being greater at day-time. The day-time enhancement in the ΔZ/ΔH ratios at Hikkaduwa and in the ratio of the H components at Colombo and Hikkaduwa could be due to the effect of the equatorial electrojet on the short period variations. (author)

  19. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Stephen G; Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E; Sahanatien, Vicki; Tremblay, Bruno; Huard, David

    2014-01-01

    Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands. Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

  20. Photolysis of Periodate and Periodic Acid in Aqueous Solution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehested, Knud; Kläning, U. K.

    1978-01-01

    The photochemistry of periodate and periodic acid in aqueous solution was studied (i) by quantum yield measurements at low light intensity (ii) by flash photolysis, and (iii) by photolysis of glassy samples at 77 K. The photochemical studies were supplemented with pulse radiolysis studies...... of aqueous periodate solutions and with kinetic studies using stopped-flow technique. In strongly alkaline solution the photodecomposition of periodate proceeds via formation of O– and IVI. At pH solution O3 P is formed in a small...

  1. Long-range analysis of density fitting in extended systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Scarontefan

    Density fitting scheme is analyzed for the Coulomb problem in extended systems from the correctness of long-range behavior point of view. We show that for the correct cancellation of divergent long-range Coulomb terms it is crucial for the density fitting scheme to reproduce the overlap matrix exactly. It is demonstrated that from all possible fitting metric choices the Coulomb metric is the only one which inherently preserves the overlap matrix for infinite systems with translational periodicity. Moreover, we show that by a small additional effort any non-Coulomb metric fit can be made overlap-preserving as well. The problem is analyzed for both ordinary and Poisson basis set choices.

  2. Hypokalaemic Periodic Paralysis in a Patient with Subclinical Hyperthyroidism: A Rare Case

    OpenAIRE

    Hegde, Swati; Shaikh, Mohammed Aslam; Gummadi, Thejaswi

    2016-01-01

    Thyrotoxic Periodic Paralysis (TPP) is an uncommon disorder. Though many cases of hypokalaemic periodic paralysis are reported in overt hyperthyroidism, hypokalaemic paralysis in subclinical hyperthyroidism is very rare. Subclinical hyperthyroidism is characterised by circulating TSH levels below reference range and normal thyroid hormone levels. We describe a case of 32-year-old Asian male who presented to the emergency department with acute onset weakness and hypokalaemia with no previous h...

  3. Stationarity and periodicities of linear speed of coronal mass ejection: a statistical signal processing approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Anirban; Khondekar, Mofazzal Hossain; Bhattacharjee, Anup Kumar

    2017-09-01

    In this paper initiative has been taken to search the periodicities of linear speed of Coronal Mass Ejection in solar cycle 23. Double exponential smoothing and Discrete Wavelet Transform are being used for detrending and filtering of the CME linear speed time series. To choose the appropriate statistical methodology for the said purpose, Smoothed Pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution (SPWVD) has been used beforehand to confirm the non-stationarity of the time series. The Time-Frequency representation tool like Hilbert Huang Transform and Empirical Mode decomposition has been implemented to unearth the underneath periodicities in the non-stationary time series of the linear speed of CME. Of all the periodicities having more than 95% Confidence Level, the relevant periodicities have been segregated out using Integral peak detection algorithm. The periodicities observed are of low scale ranging from 2-159 days with some relevant periods like 4 days, 10 days, 11 days, 12 days, 13.7 days, 14.5 and 21.6 days. These short range periodicities indicate the probable origin of the CME is the active longitude and the magnetic flux network of the sun. The results also insinuate about the probable mutual influence and causality with other solar activities (like solar radio emission, Ap index, solar wind speed, etc.) owing to the similitude between their periods and CME linear speed periods. The periodicities of 4 days and 10 days indicate the possible existence of the Rossby-type waves or planetary waves in Sun.

  4. Periodic heat wave determination of thermal diffusivity of clays ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The responses of Ankaful, Tetegu (# 1 & 2) and Mamfe clays to periodic heat waves were analyzed to deter-mine the thermal diffusivity values. The temperature amplitude attenuated with depth of penetration, while the phase shift increased. The thermal diffusivity values ranged from 3.0 - 9.5 x 10P-7P mP2P/s by amplitude ...

  5. Periodic tests: a human factors analysis of documentary aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perinet, Romuald; Rousseau, Jean-Marie

    2007-01-01

    Periodic tests are technical inspections aimed at verifying the availability of the safety-related systems during operation. The French licensee, Electricite de France (EDF), manages periodic tests according to procedures, methods of examination and a frequency, which were defined when the systems were designed. These requirements are defined by national authorities of EDF in a reference document composed of rules of testing and tables containing the reference values to be respected. This reference document is analyzed and transformed by each 'Centre Nucleaire de Production d'Electricite' (CNPE) into station-specific operating ranges of periodic tests. In 2003, the IRSN noted that significant events for safety (ESS) involving periodic tests represented more than 20% of ESS between 2000 and 2002. Thus, 340 ESS were related to non-compliance with the conditions of the test and errors in the implementation of the procedures. A first analysis showed that almost 26% of all ESSs from 2000 to 2002 were related to periodic tests. For many of them, the national reference document and the operating ranges of tests were involved. In this context, the 'Direction Generale de la Surete Nucleaire' (DGSNR), requested the 'Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire' (IRSN) to examine the process of definition and implementation of the periodic tests. The IRSN analyzed about thirty French Licensee event reports occurring during the considered period (2000-2002). The IRSN also interviewed the main persons responsible for the processes and observed the performance of 3 periodic tests. The results of this analysis were presented to a group of experts ('Groupe Permanent') charged with delivering advice to the DGSNR about the origin of the problems identified and the improvements to be implemented. The main conclusions of the IRSN addressed the quality of the prescriptive documents. In this context, EDF decided to carry out a thorough analysis of the whole process. The first

  6. Impact assessment of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and mustard (Brassica spp.) production and its adaptation strategies in different districts of Gujarat, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, V.; Patel, H. R.; Yadav, S. B.; Patil, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    Gujarat is the western-most state of India with a long (1600 km) sea coast on the Arabian Sea. Average annual rainfall ranges from as high as 1900 mm in the sub-humid southeast to as low as 250 mm in the arid north. There are three distinct crop seasons- rainy (June to September), winter (Oct.-Nov. through Feb.-March) and summer (Feb-March through May-June). Wheat and mustard are grown during winter seasons. The past climatic records suggested increasing trends in rainfall( 2 to 5 mm per year), maximum (0.03 to 0.05 0C per year) and minimum temperatures (0.02 to 0.05 0C per year) at most of places in Gujarat. But the minimum temperature is fould to be increasing significantly at all the locations. This affects the winter season crops viz. wheat and mustard adversely. Simulation results with DSSAT CERES-wheat model revealed that with increase in temperature by 2 0C in different months (November to February) the decrease in wheat yield is observed between 7 to 29 per cent. The impact of increase in maximum temperature during early (November) and late (February) is less (24.8 %). The climate change projections during 2071-2100 using PRECIS output suggested that there would be increase in maximum temperature by 3.2 to 5.2 0C in different districts of Gujarat over baseline period of 1961-1990 while minimum temperature is project to increase by 2.8 to 5.8 0C. Rainfall is also projected to increase by 28 to 70 per cent in different districts. The impact of climate change on wheat would be reduction in its duration by 14-20 days and the grain yield would be reduced by 20-55 per cent in different districts. In case of mustard crops the duration of crop would be reduced by 11 to 16 days and seed yield would be reduced by 32-50 per cent. In order to mitigate the ill effect of climate change, various adaptation strategies vis change in dates of sowing, change in variety, additional irrigation and fertilizer applications were simulated. Shifting of sowing dates of wheat by 15

  7. Periodically structured Si pillars for high-performing heterojunction photodetectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin David Kumar, M.; Yun, Ju-Hyung; Kim, Joondong

    2015-03-01

    A periodical array of silicon (Si) micro pillar structures was fabricated on Si substrates using PR etching process. Indium tin oxide (ITO) layer of 80 nm thickness was deposited over patterned Si substrates so as to make ITO/n-Si heterojunction devices. The influences of width and period of pillars on the optical and electrical properties of prepared devices were investigated. The surface morphology of the Si substrates revealed the uniform array of pillar structures. The 5/10 (width/period) Si pillar pattern reduced the optical reflectance to 6.5% from 17% which is of 5/7 pillar pattern. The current rectifying ratio was found higher for the device in which the pillars are situated in optimum periods. At both visible (600 nm) and near infrared (900 nm) range of wavelengths, the 5/7 and 5/10 pillar patterned device exhibited the better photoresponses which are suitable for making advanced photodetectors. This highly transmittance and photoresponsive pillar patterned Si substrates with an ITO layer would be a promising device for various photoelectric applications.

  8. Dosing-time-dependent variation in biliary excretion of flomoxef in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hishikawa, Shuji; Sugimoto, Koh-ichi; Kobayashi, Eiji; Kumagai, Yuji; Fujimura, Akio

    2003-05-01

    We previously reported that the biliary excretion of flomoxef, an oxacephem antibiotic, was greater after dosing at 21:00 than at 09:00 h in diurnally active human subjects. The present study was undertaken to examine whether the biliary excretion of flomoxef is also dependent on its dosing time in rats. Adult male Wistar rats were housed under light on at 07:00 h and off at 19:00 h. Bile fluid was completely drained through a polyethylene catheter from conscious animals. Flomoxef (20 mg/kg) was injected into the tail vein at 09:00 or 21:00 h by a cross-over design, and drained bile fluid was collected for 8 h after each dosing. The maximum concentration of biliary flomoxef was significantly greater and its total excretion tended to be greater after dosing at 09:00 than 21:00 h. These results suggest the biliary excretion of flomoxef is enhanced after dosing at the beginning of the rest period in rats, as it is in humans.

  9. Revegetation increase bird diversity in coastal area of Socorejo, Tuban, East Java - Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestari, Yeni Indah; Edi, Wasito; Alivvy, Alkautsar; Ibadah, Acib Setia; Sari, Fadina Yuliana; Nuraini, Finda; Yanuar, Ahmad; Satriyono, Agus; Riany, Citra Fitrie; Saptarini, Dian; Muzaki, Farid Kamal

    2017-06-01

    Study to address positive impact of revegetation program to increasing diversity of bird had been conducted in coastal area of Socorejo, Tuban - Indonesia. Field observation conducted during April 2011 (representing pre-revegetation period), April 2015 and May 2016 (representing post-revegetation period). A belt transect (500 meter long and 50 meter width) was used to survey the abundance and species composition of birds community. In general, we identified at least 51 bird species from three observation times. From 2011 to 2016, the numbers of the birds identified are 23, 37 and 37 species; while the Shannon-Wiener diversity indices (H') are 1.865, 2.071 and 2.957, respectively. In addition, there are 11 national or internationally protected species, 3 Indonesian endemic species and 12 migratory species occurred in the area. As a conclusion, the coastal revegetation program provides positive impact by generating habitat function for bird community.

  10. Global Warming and the Summertime Evapotranspiration Regime of the Alpine Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calanca, P.; Jasper, K. [Agroscope FAL Reckenholz, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, CH-8046 Zuerich (Switzerland); Roesch, A.; Wild, M. [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, CH-8092 Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2006-11-15

    Changes of the summer evapotranspiration regime under increased levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases are discussed for three Alpine river basins on the basis of a new set of simulations carried out with a high-resolution hydrological model. The climate change signal was inferred from the output of two simulations with a state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM), a reference run valid for 1961-1990 and a time-slice simulation valid for 2071-2100 under forcing from the A2 IPCC emission scenario. In this particular GCM experiment and with respect to the Alpine region summer temperature was found to increase by 3 to 4C, whereas precipitation was found to decrease by 10 to 20%. Global radiation and water vapor pressure deficit were found to increase by about 5% and 2 hPa, respectively. On this background, an overall increase of potential evapotranspiration of about 20% relative to the baseline was predicted by the hydrological model, with important variations between but also within individual basins. The results of the hydrological simulations also revealed a reduction in the evapotranspiration efficiency that depends on altitude. Accordingly, actual evapotranspiration was found to increase at high altitudes and to the south of the Alps, but to decrease in low elevation areas of the northern forelands and in the inner-Alpine domain. Such a differentiation does not appear in the GCM scenario, which predicts an overall increase in evapotranspiration over the Alps. This underlines the importance of detailed simulations for the quantitative assessment of the regional impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle.

  11. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  12. Periodic folding of viscous sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribe, Neil M.

    2003-09-01

    The periodic folding of a sheet of viscous fluid falling upon a rigid surface is a common fluid mechanical instability that occurs in contexts ranging from food processing to geophysics. Asymptotic thin-layer equations for the combined stretching-bending deformation of a two-dimensional sheet are solved numerically to determine the folding frequency as a function of the sheet’s initial thickness, the pouring speed, the height of fall, and the fluid properties. As the buoyancy increases, the system bifurcates from “forced” folding driven kinematically by fluid extrusion to “free” folding in which viscous resistance to bending is balanced by buoyancy. The systematics of the numerically predicted folding frequency are in good agreement with laboratory experiments.

  13. Salinity ranges of some southern African fish species occurring in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The recorded salinity ranges of 96 fish species occurring in southern African estuaries are documented. Factors influen- cing the tolerance of fishes to low and high salinity regimes are discussed, with most species tolerant of low rather than high salinity conditions. This is important since most systems are subject to periodic ...

  14. Observed periodicities and the spectrum of field variations in Holocene magnetic records

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panovska, S.; Finlay, Chris; Hirt, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    , globally observed, periods. Rather we find a continuous broadband spectrum, with a slope corresponding to a power law with exponent of -2.3 ± 0.6 for the period range between 300 and 4000 yr. This is consistent with the hypothesis that chaotic convection in the outer core drives the majority of secular......In order to understand mechanisms that maintain and drive the evolution of the Earth's magnetic field, a characterization of its behavior on time scales of centuries to millennia is required. We have conducted a search for periodicities in Holocene sediment magnetic records, by applying three...

  15. Periodic Anderson model with correlated conduction electrons: Variational and exact diagonalization study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagymási, I.; Itai, K.; Sólyom, J.

    2012-06-01

    We investigate an extended version of the periodic Anderson model (the so-called periodic Anderson-Hubbard model) with the aim to understand the role of interaction between conduction electrons in the formation of the heavy-fermion and mixed-valence states. Two methods are used: (i) variational calculation with the Gutzwiller wave function optimizing numerically the ground-state energy and (ii) exact diagonalization of the Hamiltonian for short chains. The f-level occupancy and the renormalization factor of the quasiparticles are calculated as a function of the energy of the f orbital for a wide range of the interaction parameters. The results obtained by the two methods are in reasonably good agreement for the periodic Anderson model. The agreement is maintained even when the interaction between band electrons, Ud, is taken into account, except for the half-filled case. This discrepancy can be explained by the difference between the physics of the one- and higher-dimensional models. We find that this interaction shifts and widens the energy range of the bare f level, where heavy-fermion behavior can be observed. For large-enough Ud this range may lie even above the bare conduction band. The Gutzwiller method indicates a robust transition from Kondo insulator to Mott insulator in the half-filled model, while Ud enhances the quasiparticle mass when the filling is close to half filling.

  16. Preferred Hosts for Short-Period Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    In an effort to learn more about how planets form around their host stars, a team of scientists has analyzed the population of Kepler-discovered exoplanet candidates, looking for trends in where theyre found.Planetary OccurrenceSince its launch in 2009, Kepler has found thousands of candidate exoplanets around a variety of star types. Especially intriguing is the large population of super-Earths and mini-Neptunes planets with masses between that of Earth and Neptune that have short orbital periods. How did they come to exist so close to their host star? Did they form in situ, or migrate inwards, or some combination of both processes?To constrain these formation mechanisms, a team of scientists led by Gijs Mulders (University of Arizona and NASAs NExSS coalition) analyzed the population of Kepler planet candidates that have orbital periods between 2 and 50 days.Mulders and collaborators used statistical reconstructions to find the average number of planets, within this orbital range, around each star in the Kepler field. They then determined how this planet occurrence rate changed for different spectral types and therefore the masses of the host stars: do low-mass M-dwarf stars host more or fewer planets than higher-mass, main-sequence F, G, or K stars?Challenging ModelsAuthors estimates for the occurrence rate for short-period planets of different radii around M-dwarfs (purple) and around F, G, and K-type stars (blue). [Mulders et al. 2015]The team found that M dwarfs, compared to F, G, or K stars, host about half as many large planets with orbital periods of P 50 days. But, surprisingly, they host significantly more small planets, racking up an average of 3.5 times the number of planets in the size range of 12.8 Earth-radii.Could it be that M dwarfs have a lower total mass of planets, but that mass is distributed into more, smaller planets? Apparently not: the authors show that the mass of heavy elements trapped in short-orbital-period planets is higher for M

  17. Memory traces of long-range coordinated oscillations in the sleeping human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piantoni, Giovanni; Van Der Werf, Ysbrand D; Jensen, Ole; Van Someren, Eus J W

    2015-01-01

    Cognition involves coordinated activity across distributed neuronal networks. Neuronal activity during learning triggers cortical plasticity that allows for reorganization of the neuronal network and integration of new information. Animal studies have shown post-learning reactivation of learning-elicited neuronal network activity during subsequent sleep, supporting consolidation of the reorganization. However, no previous studies, to our knowledge, have demonstrated reactivation of specific learning-elicited long-range functional connectivity during sleep in humans. We here show reactivation of learning-induced long-range synchronization of magnetoencephalography power fluctuations in human sleep. Visuomotor learning elicited a specific profile of long-range cortico-cortical synchronization of slow (0.1 Hz) fluctuations in beta band (12-30 Hz) power. The parieto-occipital part of this synchronization profile reappeared in delta band (1-3.5 Hz) power fluctuations during subsequent sleep, but not during the intervening wakefulness period. Individual differences in the reactivated synchronization predicted postsleep performance improvement. The presleep resting-state synchronization profile was not reactivated during sleep. The findings demonstrate reactivation of long-range coordination of neuronal activity in humans, more specifically of reactivation of coupling of infra-slow fluctuations in oscillatory power. The spatiotemporal profile of delta power fluctuations during sleep may subserve memory consolidation by echoing coordinated activation elicited by prior learning. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Periodic Forcing of Inhibition-Stabilized Networks: Nonlinear Resonances and Phase-Amplitude Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltz, Romain; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

    2016-01-01

    Inhibition-stabilized networks (ISNs) are neural architectures with strong positive feedback among pyramidal neurons balanced by strong negative feedback from inhibitory interneurons, a circuit element found in the hippocampus and the primary visual cortex. In their working regime, ISNs produce damped oscillations in the γ-range in response to inputs to the inhibitory population. In order to understand the properties of interconnected ISNs, we investigated periodic forcing of ISNs. We show that ISNs can be excited over a range of frequencies and derive properties of the resonance peaks. In particular, we studied the phase-locked solutions, the torus solutions, and the resonance peaks. Periodically forced ISNs respond with (possibly multistable) phase-locked activity, whereas networks with sustained intrinsic oscillations respond more dynamically to periodic inputs with tori. Hence, the dynamics are surprisingly rich, and phase effects alone do not adequately describe the network response. This strengthens the importance of phaseamplitude coupling as opposed to phase-phase coupling in providing multiple frequencies for multiplexing and routing information. PMID:26496044

  19. Boxing Injuries from an Instructional Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Michael J.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the safeguards as well as the injury pattern of the boxing program at the US Military Academy at West Point from 1983 to 1985. About 2,100 cadets received boxing instruction during this period with an injury rate of less than four percent. (Author/MT)

  20. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  1. Coexisting chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics in a model of cardiac alternans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skardal, Per Sebastian, E-mail: skardals@gmail.com [Departament d' Enginyeria Informàtica i Matemàtiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43007 Tarragona (Spain); Restrepo, Juan G., E-mail: juanga@colorado.edu [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 (United States)

    2014-12-15

    The spatiotemporal dynamics of cardiac tissue is an active area of research for biologists, physicists, and mathematicians. Of particular interest is the study of period-doubling bifurcations and chaos due to their link with cardiac arrhythmogenesis. In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a recently developed model for calcium-driven alternans in a one dimensional cable of tissue. In particular, we observe in the cable coexistence of regions with chaotic and multi-periodic dynamics over wide ranges of parameters. We study these dynamics using global and local Lyapunov exponents and spatial trajectory correlations. Interestingly, near nodes—or phase reversals—low-periodic dynamics prevail, while away from the nodes, the dynamics tend to be higher-periodic and eventually chaotic. Finally, we show that similar coexisting multi-periodic and chaotic dynamics can also be observed in a detailed ionic model.

  2. Circle maps and the Devil's staircase in a periodically perturbed Oregonator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøns, Morten; Gross, Peter; Bar-Eli, Kedma

    1997-01-01

    Markman and Bar-Eli has studied a periodically forced Oregonator numerically and found a parameter range with the following properties: (1) Only periodic solutions are found in frequency-locked steps, each with a certain pattern of large and small oscillations (2) Between any two steps there is a....... Using invariant manifold theory we argue that an invariant circle must indeed exist when, as in the present case, the unforced system is close to a saddle-loop bifurcation. Generalisations of the results are briefly discussed....

  3. A Pilot Study of the Normative Range of Overnight Urinary Free Cortisol Corrected for Creatinine in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolthers, Ole D; Mersmann, Sabine; Dissanayake, Sanjeeva

    2018-04-01

    For more than a decade, urinary free cortisol corrected for creatinine (OUFCC) has been used to assess the systemic bioactivity of inhaled corticosteroids in children with asthma. Paediatric normative ranges, however, have not been established. The aim of the present study was to define a preliminary range for OUFCC in Tanner stage 1 children. A post hoc analysis was performed of 26 Tanner stage one children (aged 5-11 years) with mild asthma only requiring prn (pro re nata) treatment with short-acting β 2 -agonists, who participated in a 3-way cross-over knemometry study. The study comprised a run-in, two washout periods and three treatment periods (2 weeks each). Urine was collected at the end of each period. A normative range was derived using the 95% prediction interval for the geometric mean OUFCC, calculated from run-in and washout periods. Twenty-six children contributed 41 OUFCC values. The geometric mean OUFCC was 9.0 nmol/mmol (95% PI: 3.6, 22.7 nmol/mmol). The OUFCC preliminary normative range was 3.6 to 22.7 nmol/mmol in Tanner stage one children. A larger study in healthy children is warranted to confirm these findings and to assess potential differences in OUFCC across developmental stages and age groups, and by gender and race. 2013-004719-32, CLINICALTRIALS. NCT02063139.

  4. Using periodic orbits to compute chaotic transport rates between resonance zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattari, Sulimon; Mitchell, Kevin A.

    2017-11-01

    Transport properties of chaotic systems are computable from data extracted from periodic orbits. Given a sufficient number of periodic orbits, the escape rate can be computed using the spectral determinant, a function that incorporates the eigenvalues and periods of periodic orbits. The escape rate computed from periodic orbits converges to the true value as more and more periodic orbits are included. Escape from a given region of phase space can be computed by considering only periodic orbits that lie within the region. An accurate symbolic dynamics along with a corresponding partitioning of phase space is useful for systematically obtaining all periodic orbits up to a given period, to ensure that no important periodic orbits are missing in the computation. Homotopic lobe dynamics (HLD) is an automated technique for computing accurate partitions and symbolic dynamics for maps using the topological forcing of intersections of stable and unstable manifolds of a few periodic anchor orbits. In this study, we apply the HLD technique to compute symbolic dynamics and periodic orbits, which are then used to find escape rates from different regions of phase space for the Hénon map. We focus on computing escape rates in parameter ranges spanning hyperbolic plateaus, which are parameter intervals where the dynamics is hyperbolic and the symbolic dynamics does not change. After the periodic orbits are computed for a single parameter value within a hyperbolic plateau, periodic orbit continuation is used to compute periodic orbits over an interval that spans the hyperbolic plateau. The escape rates computed from a few thousand periodic orbits agree with escape rates computed from Monte Carlo simulations requiring hundreds of billions of orbits.

  5. Ranging Behaviour of Commercial Free-Range Laying Hens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chielo, Leonard Ikenna; Pike, Tom; Cooper, Jonathan

    2016-04-26

    In this study, the range use and behaviour of laying hens in commercial free-range flocks was explored. Six flocks were each visited on four separate days and data collected from their outdoor area (divided into zones based on distance from shed and available resources). These were: apron (0-10 m from shed normally without cover or other enrichments); enriched belt (10-50 m from shed where resources such as manmade cover, saplings and dust baths were provided); and outer range (beyond 50 m from shed with no cover and mainly grass pasture). Data collection consisted of counting the number of hens in each zone and recording behaviour, feather condition and nearest neighbour distance (NND) of 20 birds per zone on each visit day. In addition, we used techniques derived from ecological surveys to establish four transects perpendicular to the shed, running through the apron, enriched belt and outer range. Number of hens in each 10 m × 10 m quadrat was recorded four times per day as was the temperature and relative humidity of the outer range. On average, 12.5% of hens were found outside. Of these, 5.4% were found in the apron; 4.3% in the enriched zone; and 2.8% were in the outer range. This pattern was supported by data from quadrats, where the density of hens sharply dropped with increasing distance from shed. Consequently, NND was greatest in the outer range, least in the apron and intermediate in the enriched belt. Hens sampled in outer range and enriched belts had better feather condition than those from the apron. Standing, ground pecking, walking and foraging were the most commonly recorded activities with standing and pecking most likely to occur in the apron, and walking and foraging more common in the outer range. Use of the outer range declined with lower temperatures and increasing relative humidity, though use of apron and enriched belt was not affected by variation in these measures. These data support previous findings that outer range areas tend to be

  6. Periodicities in the X-ray Emission from the Solar Corona: SphinX and SOXS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steślicki, M.; Awasthi, A. K.; Gryciuk, M.; Jain, R.

    The structure and evolution of the solar magnetic field is driven by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo operating in the solar interior, which induces various solar activities that exhibit periodic variations on different timescales. Therefore, probing the periodic nature of emission originating from the solar corona may provide insights of the convection-zone-photosphere-corona coupling processes. We present the study of the mid-range periodicities, between rotation period (˜27 days) and the Schwabe cycle period (˜11 yr), in the solar soft X-ray emission, based on the data obtained by two instruments: SphinX and SOXS in various energy bands.

  7. Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

    2014-12-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  8. Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  9. Periodic Hydraulic Testing for Discerning Fracture Network Connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Le Borgne, T.; Bour, O.; Guihéneuf, N.; Cole, M.

    2015-12-01

    Discrete fracture network (DFN) models often predict highly variable hydraulic connections between injection and pumping wells used for enhanced oil recovery, geothermal energy extraction, and groundwater remediation. Such connections can be difficult to verify in fractured rock systems because standard pumping or pulse interference tests interrogate too large a volume to pinpoint specific connections. Three field examples are presented in which periodic hydraulic tests were used to obtain information about hydraulic connectivity in fractured bedrock. The first site, a sandstone in New York State, involves only a single fracture at a scale of about 10 m. The second site, a granite in Brittany, France, involves a fracture network at about the same scale. The third site, a granite/schist in the U.S. State of New Hampshire, involves a complex network at scale of 30-60 m. In each case periodic testing provided an enhanced view of hydraulic connectivity over previous constant rate tests. Periodic testing is particularly adept at measuring hydraulic diffusivity, which is a more effective parameter than permeability for identify the complexity of flow pathways between measurement locations. Periodic tests were also conducted at multiple frequencies which provides a range in the radius of hydraulic penetration away from the oscillating well. By varying the radius of penetration, we attempt to interrogate the structure of the fracture network. Periodic tests, therefore, may be uniquely suited for verifying and/or calibrating DFN models.

  10. Microbe-mediated transformations of marine dissolved organic matter during 2,100 years of natural incubation in the cold, oxic crust of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah Walter, S. R.; Jaekel, U.; Huber, J. A.; Dittmar, T.; Girguis, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    On the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, oxic seawater from the deep ocean is downwelled into the basaltic crust, supplying the crustal aquifer with an initial inoculum of organic matter and electron acceptors. Studies have shown that fluids circulating within the crust are minimally altered from original seawater, making this subsurface environment a unique natural experiment in which the fate of marine organic matter and the limitations of microbial adaptability in the context of reduced carbon supply can be examined. To make the subsurface crustal aquifer accessible, two CORK (Circulation Obviation Retrofit Kit) observatories have been installed at North Pond, a sediment-filled depression beneath the oligotrophic Sargasso Sea. Radiocarbon analysis of dissolved inorganic (DIC) and organic carbon (DOC) in samples recovered from these observatories show uncoupled aging between DOC and DIC with Δ14C values of DOC as low as -933‰ despite isolation from the open ocean for, at most, 2,100 years. This extreme value is part of a general trend of decreasing DOC δ13C and Δ14C values with increasing incubation time within the aquifer. Combined with reduced concentrations of DOC, our results argue for selective microbial oxidation of the youngest, most 13C-enriched components of downwelled DOC, possibly identifying these as characteristics of the more bioavailable fractions of deep-ocean dissolved organic matter. They also suggest that microbial oxidation during low-temperature hydrothermal circulation could be an important sink for aged marine dissolved organic matter.

  11. Long-range carbon-proton spin-spin coupling constants in conformational analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spoormaker, T.

    1979-01-01

    The author has collected a reliable set of data on long range 13 C- 1 H coupling constants in aliphatic compounds and developed the use of long range 13 C- 1 H coupling constants as a tool in the conformational analysis of aliphatic compounds. An empirical determination of the torsion angle dependence of the vicinal 13 C- 1 H coupling constant for model compounds is described and the dependence of long range 13 C- 1 H coupling constants on the electronegativity of substituents attached to the coupling pathway reported for the monohalogen substituted ethanes and propanes. The electronegativity dependence of the vicinal 13 C- 1 H coupling was studied in monosubstituted propanes whose substituents are elements from the first row of the periodic table and it is shown that the vicinal 13 C- 1 H coupling constant in aliphatic systems is a constitutive property. The geminal 13 C- 1 H coupling constants in ethyl, isopropyl and tert-butyl compounds, which have been substituted by an element of the first row of the periodic table or a haline atom, are reported and the influence of electronegative substituents on the vicinal 13 C- 1 H coupling constants in the individual rotamers of 13 CH 3 -C(X)H-C(Y)H- 1 H fragments discussed. The application of long range 13 C- 1 H coupling constants to the conformational analysis of CMP-N-Acetylneuraminic acid and 2,6-dichloro-1,4-oxathiane is described. (Auth.)

  12. Home range, habitat selection and activity patterns of an arid-zone ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    All previous behavioural studies of Temminck's ground pangolins (Smutsia temminckii) have focused on populations in mesic regions. We examined home range size, activity periods, habitat selectivity and refuge site selection of 13 individuals over three years in the Kalahari Desert of South Africa, near the western edge of ...

  13. Fabrication of Long Period Gratings by Periodically Removing the Coating of Cladding-Etched Single Mode Optical Fiber Towards Optical Fiber Sensor Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascorbe, Joaquin; Corres, Jesus M; Del Villar, Ignacio; Matias, Ignacio R

    2018-06-07

    Here, we present a novel method to fabricate long period gratings using standard single mode optical fibers (SMF). These optical devices were fabricated in a three-step process, which consisted of etching the SMF, then coating it with a thin-film and, the final step, which involved removing sections of the coating periodically by laser ablation. Tin dioxide was chosen as the material for this study and it was sputtered using a pulsed DC sputtering system. Theoretical simulations were performed in order to select the appropriate parameters for the experiments. The responses of two different devices to different external refractive indices was studied, and the maximum sensitivity obtained was 6430 nm/RIU for external refractive indices ranging from 1.37 to 1.39.

  14. Fabrication of Long Period Gratings by Periodically Removing the Coating of Cladding-Etched Single Mode Optical Fiber Towards Optical Fiber Sensor Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquin Ascorbe

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Here, we present a novel method to fabricate long period gratings using standard single mode optical fibers (SMF. These optical devices were fabricated in a three-step process, which consisted of etching the SMF, then coating it with a thin-film and, the final step, which involved removing sections of the coating periodically by laser ablation. Tin dioxide was chosen as the material for this study and it was sputtered using a pulsed DC sputtering system. Theoretical simulations were performed in order to select the appropriate parameters for the experiments. The responses of two different devices to different external refractive indices was studied, and the maximum sensitivity obtained was 6430 nm/RIU for external refractive indices ranging from 1.37 to 1.39.

  15. A method of short range system analysis for nuclear utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, R.; Mason, E.A.; Benedict, M.

    1976-01-01

    An optimization procedure has been formulated and tested that is capable of solving for the optimal generation schedule of several nuclear power reactors in an electric power utility system, under short-range, resource-limited, conditions. The optimization procedure utilizes a new concept called the Opportunity Cost of Nuclear Power (OCNP) to optimally assign the resource-limited nuclear energy to the different weeks and hours in the short-range planning horizon. OCNP is defined as the cost of displaced energy when optimally distributed nuclear energy is marginally increased. Under resource-limited conditions, the short-range 'value' of nuclear power to a utility system is not its actual generation cost, but the cost of the next best alternative supply of energy, the OCNP. OCNP is a function of a week's system reserve capacity, the system's economic loading order, the customer demand function, and the nature of the available utility system generating units. The optimized OCNP value of the short-range planning period represents the utility's short-range energy replacement cost incurred when selling nuclear energy to a neighbouring utility. (author)

  16. Seawater pH Predicted for the Year 2100 Affects the Metabolic Response to Feeding in Copepodites of the Arctic Copepod Calanus glacialis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thor, Peter; Bailey, Allison; Halsband, Claudia; Guscelli, Ella; Gorokhova, Elena; Fransson, Agneta

    2016-01-01

    Widespread ocean acidification (OA) is transforming the chemistry of the global ocean, and the Arctic is recognised as a region where the earliest and strongest impacts of OA are expected. In the present study, metabolic effects of OA and its interaction with food availability was investigated in Calanus glacialis from the Kongsfjord, West Spitsbergen. We measured metabolic rates and RNA/DNA ratios (an indicator of biosynthesis) concurrently in fed and unfed individuals of copepodite stages CII-CIII and CV subjected to two different pH levels representative of present day and the "business as usual" IPCC scenario (RCP8.5) prediction for the year 2100. The copepods responded more strongly to changes in food level than to decreasing pH, both with respect to metabolic rate and RNA/DNA ratio. However, significant interactions between effects of pH and food level showed that effects of pH and food level act in synergy in copepodites of C. glacialis. While metabolic rates in copepodites stage CII-CIII increased by 78% as a response to food under present day conditions (high pH), the increase was 195% in CII-CIIIs kept at low pH-a 2.5 times greater increase. This interaction was absent for RNA/DNA, so the increase in metabolic rates were clearly not a reaction to changing biosynthesis at low pH per se but rather a reaction to increased metabolic costs per unit of biosynthesis. Interestingly, we did not observe this difference in costs of growth in stage CV. A 2.5 times increase in metabolic costs of growth will leave the copepodites with much less energy for growth. This may infer significant changes to the C. glacialis population during future OA.

  17. Positive periodic solutions of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Wei; Chen Tianping

    2005-01-01

    In this Letter, for a general class of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems, we prove some new results on the existence of positive periodic solutions by Schauder's fixed point theorem. The global asymptotical stability of positive periodic solutions is discussed further, and conditions for exponential convergence are given. The conditions we obtained are weaker than the previously known ones and can be easily reduced to several special cases

  18. Modeling and designing of variable-period and variable-pole-number undulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Davidyuk

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of permanent-magnet variable-period undulator (VPU was proposed several years ago and has found few implementations so far. The VPUs have some advantages as compared with conventional undulators, e.g., a wider range of radiation wavelength tuning and the option to increase the number of poles for shorter periods. Both these advantages will be realized in the VPU under development now at Budker INP. In this paper, we present the results of 2D and 3D magnetic field simulations and discuss some design features of this VPU.

  19. Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

    2017-06-01

    As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

  20. Options to Accelerate Ozone Recovery: Ozone and Climate Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, E. L.; Daniel, J. S.; Portmann, R. W.; Velders, G. J. M.; Jackman, C. H.; Ravishankara, A. R.

    2010-01-01

    The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone primarily originated from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine). Representatives from governments have met periodically over the years to establish international regulations starting with the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which greatly limited the release of these ozone-depleting substances (DDSs). Two global models have been used to investigate the impact of hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ODSs on total column ozone. The investigations primarily focused on chlorine- and bromine-containing gases, but some computations also included nitrous oxide (N2O). The Montreal Protocol with ODS controls have been so successful that further regulations of chlorine- and bromine-containing gases could have only a fraction of the impact that regulations already in force have had. if all anthropogenic ODS emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1-2% during the period 2030-2100 compared to a case of no additional ODS restrictions. Chlorine- and bromine-containing gases and nitrous oxide are also greenhouse gases and lead to warming of the troposphere. Elimination of N 20 emissions would result in a reduction of radiative forcing of 0.23 W/sq m in 2100 than presently computed and destruction of the CFC bank would produce a reduction in radiative forcing of 0.005 W/sq m in 2100. This paper provides a quantitative way to consider future regulations of the CFC bank and N 20 emissions

  1. Safe bunker designing for the 18 MV Varian 2100 Clinac: a comparison between Monte Carlo simulation based upon data and new protocol recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beigi, Manije; Afarande, Fatemeh; Ghiasi, Hosein

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare two bunkers designed by only protocols recommendations and Monte Carlo (MC) based upon data derived for an 18 MV Varian 2100Clinac accelerator. High energy radiation therapy is associated with fast and thermal photoneutrons. Adequate shielding against the contaminant neutron has been recommended by IAEA and NCRP new protocols. The latest protocols released by the IAEA (safety report No. 47) and NCRP report No. 151 were used for the bunker designing calculations. MC method based upon data was also derived. Two bunkers using protocols and MC upon data were designed and discussed. From designed door's thickness, the door designed by the MC simulation and Wu-McGinley analytical method was closer in both BPE and lead thickness. In the case of the primary and secondary barriers, MC simulation resulted in 440.11 mm for the ordinary concrete, total concrete thickness of 1709 mm was required. Calculating the same parameters value with the recommended analytical methods resulted in 1762 mm for the required thickness using 445 mm as recommended by TVL for the concrete. Additionally, for the secondary barrier the thickness of 752.05 mm was obtained. Our results showed MC simulation and the followed protocols recommendations in dose calculation are in good agreement in the radiation contamination dose calculation. Difference between the two analytical and MC simulation methods revealed that the application of only one method for the bunker design may lead to underestimation or overestimation in dose and shielding calculations.

  2. Double scattering of light from Biophotonic Nanostructures with short-range order

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noh, Heeso; Liew, Seng Fatt; Saranathan, Vinodkumar; Prum, Richard O.; Mochrie, Simon G.J.; Dufresne, Eric R.; Cao, Hui (Yale)

    2010-07-28

    We investigate the physical mechanism for color production by isotropic nanostructures with short-range order in bird feather barbs. While the primary peak in optical scattering spectra results from constructive interference of singly-scattered light, many species exhibit secondary peaks with distinct characteristic. Our experimental and numerical studies show that these secondary peaks result from double scattering of light by the correlated structures. Without an analog in periodic or random structures, such a phenomenon is unique for short-range ordered structures, and has been widely used by nature for non-iridescent structural coloration.

  3. Ranging Behaviour of Commercial Free-Range Laying Hens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonard Ikenna Chielo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the range use and behaviour of laying hens in commercial free-range flocks was explored. Six flocks were each visited on four separate days and data collected from their outdoor area (divided into zones based on distance from shed and available resources. These were: apron (0–10 m from shed normally without cover or other enrichments; enriched belt (10–50 m from shed where resources such as manmade cover, saplings and dust baths were provided; and outer range (beyond 50 m from shed with no cover and mainly grass pasture. Data collection consisted of counting the number of hens in each zone and recording behaviour, feather condition and nearest neighbour distance (NND of 20 birds per zone on each visit day. In addition, we used techniques derived from ecological surveys to establish four transects perpendicular to the shed, running through the apron, enriched belt and outer range. Number of hens in each 10 m × 10 m quadrat was recorded four times per day as was the temperature and relative humidity of the outer range. On average, 12.5% of hens were found outside. Of these, 5.4% were found in the apron; 4.3% in the enriched zone; and 2.8% were in the outer range. This pattern was supported by data from quadrats, where the density of hens sharply dropped with increasing distance from shed. Consequently, NND was greatest in the outer range, least in the apron and intermediate in the enriched belt. Hens sampled in outer range and enriched belts had better feather condition than those from the apron. Standing, ground pecking, walking and foraging were the most commonly recorded activities with standing and pecking most likely to occur in the apron, and walking and foraging more common in the outer range. Use of the outer range declined with lower temperatures and increasing relative humidity, though use of apron and enriched belt was not affected by variation in these measures. These data support previous findings that outer range

  4. A Period Study of the Near Contact Binary EG Cep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Hwey Kim

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available New eight times of minimum light of the near-contact binary EG Cep were presented. All times of minimum light for EG Cep, including ours, were collected and analyzed to study it's orbital period variation. It was found that the orbital period have varied in a cyclical way superposed on an upward parabola. A secular period increase of 3.22 times 10^{-8} d/y was calculated. Under the assumption of a conservative mass transfer, it implied that the stellar gaseous material of about 3.18 times 10^{-8} rm M_odot /year is transferring from the less massive secondary component to the primary. The cyclical period variation was interpreted as light-time effect due to an unseen third body in the system. The resultant period, semi-amplitude and eccentricity of the light time orbit were calculated to be 38.^{rm y}4, 0.^{rm d}0034 and 0.29, respectively. The mass range of the tertiary proposed in the system is deduced to be quite small as 0.10M_{odot} leq M_3 leq 0.21M_{odot} for i_3 g!

  5. Periodic cavitation shedding in a cylindrical orifice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, C.; Barber, T.; Milton, B.; Rosengarten, G. [University of New South Wales, School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, Sydney (Australia)

    2011-11-15

    Cavitation structures in a large-scale (D = 8.25 mm), plain orifice style nozzle within a unique experimental rig are investigated using high-speed visualisation and digital image processing techniques. Refractive index matching with an acrylic nozzle is achieved using aqueous sodium iodide for the test fluid. Cavitation collapse length, unsteady shedding frequency and spray angles are measured for cavitation conditions from incipient to supercavitation for a range of Reynolds numbers, for a fixed L/D ratio of 4.85. Periodic cavitation shedding was shown to occur with frequencies between 500 and 2,000 Hz for conditions in which cavitation occupied less than 30% of the nozzle length. A discontinuity in collapse length was shown to occur once the cavitation exceeded this length, coinciding with a loss of periodic shedding. A mechanism for this behaviour is discussed. Peak spray angles of approximately {theta} {approx} 14 were recorded for supercavitation conditions indicating the positive influence of cavitation bubble collapse on the jet atomisation process. (orig.)

  6. Philtrum length and intercommissural distance measurements at mixed dentition period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Mostafa; Hassib, Nehal; Sayed, Inas; Neamat, Amany; Ramzy, Magda; El-Badry, Tarek; ElGabry, Hisham; Salem, Haidy; Omar, Nada; Ismail, Amira; Ibrahim, Yousra; Shebaita, Amr; Allam, Ahmed; Mostafa, Magdy

    2018-05-01

    Anthropometric measurements of the lip and mouth are of great importance in clinical dysmorphology as well as reconstructive plastic surgery. In this study, the philtrum length (PhL) and intercommissural distance (ICmD) nomograms for Egyptian children in the mixed dentition period were established. A group of 1,338 Egyptian students in primary schools (735 boys and 603 girls) were included in the study. The students were at mixed dentition period and their ages ranged from 7 to 12 years. Anthropometric norms of PhL and ICmD were developed with significant sex difference in certain groups. A ratio between PhL and ICmD was developed. These data will help facilitate both objective and subjective evaluation of the lip and mouth for proper diagnosis of orofacial anomalies and variations as well as for ideal treatment plans. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, M.H.P.; Fagre, D.B.

    2003-01-01

    The glaciers in the Blackfoot-Jackson Glacier Basin of Glacier National Park, Montana, decreased in area from 21.6 square kilometers (km2) in 1850 to 7.4 km2 in 1979. Over this same period global temperatures increased by 0.45??C (?? 0. 15??C). We analyzed the climatic causes and ecological consequences of glacier retreat by creating spatially explicit models of the creation and ablation of glaciers and of the response of vegetation to climate change. We determined the melt rate and spatial distribution of glaciers under two possible future climate scenarios, one based on carbon dioxide-induced global warming and the other on a linear temperature extrapolation. Under the former scenario, all glaciers in the basin will disappear by the year 2030, despite predicted increases in precipitation; under the latter, melting is slower. Using a second model, we analyzed vegetation responses to variations in soil moisture and increasing temperature in a complex alpine landscape and predicted where plant communities are likely to be located as conditions change.

  8. THz laser based on quasi-periodic AlGaAs superlattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malyshev, K V [N.E. Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-06-30

    The use of quasi-periodic AlGaAs superlattices as an active element of a quantum cascade laser of terahertz range is proposed and theoretically investigated. A multi-colour emission, having from three to six peaks of optical gain, is found in Fibonacci, Thue-Morse, and figurate superlattices in electric fields of intensity F = 11 - 13 kV cm{sup -1} in the frequency range f = 2 - 4 THz. The peaks depend linearly on the electric field, retain the height of 20 cm{sup -1}, and strongly depend on the thickness of the AlGaAs-layers. (lasers)

  9. From Periodic Properties to a Periodic Table Arrangement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besalú, Emili

    2013-01-01

    A periodic table is constructed from the consideration of periodic properties and the application of the principal components analysis technique. This procedure is useful for objects classification and data reduction and has been used in the field of chemistry for many applications, such as lanthanides, molecules, or conformers classification.…

  10. Model of tunnelling through periodic array of quantum dots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meynster Dmitry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Several explicitly solvable models of electron tunnelling in a system of single and double two-dimensional periodic arrays of quantum dots with two laterally coupled leads in a homogeneous magnetic field are constructed. First, a model of single layer formed by periodic array of zero-range potentials is described. The Landau operator (the Schrodinger operator with a magnetic field with point-like interactions is the system Hamiltonian. We deal with two types of the layer lattices: square and honeycomb. The periodicity condition gives one an invariance property for the Hamiltonian in respect to magnetic translations group. The consideration of double quantum layer reduces to the replacement of the basic cell for the single layer by a cell including centers of different layers. Two variants of themodel for the double layer are suggested: with direct tunneling between the layers and with the connecting channels (segments in the model between the layers. The theory of self-adjoint extensions of symmetric operators is a mathematical background of the model. The third stage of the construction is the description of leads connection. It is made by the operator extensions theory method too. Electron tunneling from input lead to the output lead through the double quantum layer is described. Energy ranges with extremely small (practically, zero transmission were found. Dependencies of the transmission coefficient (particularly, “zero transmission bands” positions on the magnetic field, the energy of electron and the distance between layers are investigated. The results are compared with the corresponding single-layer transmission.

  11. Withdrawal of corticosteroids in inflammatory bowel disease patients after dependency periods ranging from 2 to 45 years: a proposed method.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Murphy, S J

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Even in the biologic era, corticosteroid dependency in IBD patients is common and causes a lot of morbidity, but methods of withdrawal are not well described. AIM: To assess the effectiveness of a corticosteroid withdrawal method. METHODS: Twelve patients (10 men, 2 women; 6 ulcerative colitis, 6 Crohn\\'s disease), median age 53.5 years (range 29-75) were included. IBD patients with quiescent disease refractory to conventional weaning were transitioned to oral dexamethasone, educated about symptoms of the corticosteroid withdrawal syndrome (CWS) and weaned under the supervision of an endocrinologist. When patients failed to wean despite a slow weaning pace and their IBD remaining quiescent, low dose synthetic ACTH stimulation testing was performed to assess for adrenal insufficiency. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess predictors of a slow wean. RESULTS: Median durations for disease and corticosteroid dependency were 21 (range 3-45) and 14 (range 2-45) years respectively. Ten patients (83%) were successfully weaned after a median follow-up from final wean of 38 months (range 5-73). Disease flares occurred in two patients, CWS in five and ACTH testing was performed in 10. Multivariate analysis showed that longer duration of corticosteroid use appeared to be associated with a slower wean (P = 0.056). CONCLUSIONS: Corticosteroid withdrawal using this protocol had a high success rate and durable effect and was effective in patients with long-standing (up to 45 years) dependency. As symptoms of CWS mimic symptoms of IBD disease flares, gastroenterologists may have difficulty distinguishing them, which may be a contributory factor to the frequency of corticosteroid dependency in IBD patients.

  12. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisz, Mary; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, Peter

    2015-01-01

    the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we...... projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter......Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating...

  13. Long-range correlation analysis of urban traffic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Sheng; Jun-Feng, Wang; Shu-Long, Zhao; Tie-Qiao, Tang

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates urban traffic data by analysing the long-range correlation with detrended fluctuation analysis. Through a large number of real data collected by the travel time detection system in Beijing, the variation of flow in different time periods and intersections is studied. According to the long-range correlation in different time scales, it mainly discusses the effect of intersection location in road net, people activity customs and special traffic controls on urban traffic flow. As demonstrated by the obtained results, the urban traffic flow represents three-phase characters similar to highway traffic. Moreover, compared by the two groups of data obtained before and after the special traffic restrictions (vehicles with special numbered plates only run in a special workday) enforcement, it indicates that the rules not only reduce the flow but also avoid irregular fluctuation. (general)

  14. Baking enables McLeod gauge to measure in ultrahigh vacuum range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreisman, W. S.

    1965-01-01

    Accurate measurements in the ultrahigh vacuum range by a conventional McLeod gage requires degassing of the gage's glass walls. A closed system, in which mercury is forced into the gage by gravity alone, and in which the gage components are baked out for long periods, is used to achieve this degassing.

  15. Dust Plume Modeling from Ranges and Maneuver Areas on Fort Bliss and the White Sands Missile Range: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Barnard, James C.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Pekour, Mikhail S.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Shaw, William J.

    2009-05-04

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating on and between the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss and White Sands Missile Range was investigated. This report details efforts by the staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Fort Bliss Directorate of Environment in this investigation. Dust emission and dispersion from typical move-out activities occurring on the installations were simulated using the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN. Major assumptions associated with designing the modeling scenarios are summarized and results of simulations conducted under these assumptions are presented for four representative meteorological periods.

  16. Solar wind plasma periodicities observed at 1 AU by IMP 8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paularena, K. I.; Szabo, A.; Lazarus, A. J.

    1995-01-01

    The IMP 8 spacecraft has been in Earth orbit since 1973, gathering plasma data over one complete 22-year solar cycle. These data are being examined to look for periodicities at time scales ranging from several hours to the entire span of the data set. A 1.3-year periodicity in the radial speed observed by IMP 8 and Voyager 2 has already been reported for the years from 1987 to 1993. The periodogram method, useful for unevenly sampled data such as the IMP 8 plasma data, has been used to search for other periods. It is interesting to note that the 13-year period is not present in the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the velocity (Vz), although a 1-year period is very obvious both visually and on the periodogram. Both components show a very strong peak associated with the 11-year solar cycle variation. This work will be extended to the thermal speed (a measure of the wind's temperature) and density, although the frequent correlations between these parameters and the velocity are expected to cause similar results. Additionally, the fine resolution data will be examined for shorter time periods than are visible using the hourly average data which are appropriate for longer periods. A comparison with periods observed at other spacecraft may also be made.

  17. A DFT study on benzene adsorption over tungsten sulfides: surface model and adsorption geometries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koide, R.; Hensen, E.J.M.; Paul, J.F.; Cristol, S.; Payen, E.; Nakamura, H.; Santen, van R.A.

    2007-01-01

    Benzene adsorption on a WS2(100) surface was studied by ab initio periodic DFT computations. Benzene adsorption is facile on the bridge site of the bare W edge via ¿2 or ¿3 coordination. Taking into account the stable configuration at the W edge under typical hydrotreating reaction conditions (623

  18. Home range defense in the red fox, Vulpes vulpes L

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, E.M.

    1975-01-01

    This paper describes the home range defense behavior observed when nonresident male red foxes were introduced into established home ranges of resident male-female pairs. In 12 observation periods, four intruders were introduced to each of three mated pairs which had been given three weeks to acclimate to a 4.05-hectare, fenced enclosure. The residents centered their activities around a natural den and the frequency of intruder-resident encounters decreased rapidly with increasing distance from the den. The primary home range defense was continual harassment of the intruders by the resident males through agonistic displays and chases. Physical contact was rare. Even though the resident males were dominant in less than a majority of the interactions observed, they were usually successful in displacing the intruders within a few hours. The resident females seldom interacted with the intruders.

  19. Bounded and Periodic Solutions of Semilinear Impulsive Periodic System on Banach Spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei W

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A class of semilinear impulsive periodic system on Banach spaces is considered. First, we introduce the -periodic PC-mild solution of semilinear impulsive periodic system. By virtue of Gronwall lemma with impulse, the estimate on the PC-mild solutions is derived. The continuity and compactness of the new constructed Poincaré operator determined by impulsive evolution operator corresponding to homogenous linear impulsive periodic system are shown. This allows us to apply Horn's fixed-point theorem to prove the existence of -periodic PC-mild solutions when PC-mild solutions are ultimate bounded. This extends the study on periodic solutions of periodic system without impulse to periodic system with impulse on general Banach spaces. At last, an example is given for demonstration.

  20. Is the Periodic Table all right (“PT OK”?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pyykkö Pekka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The history of the Periodic Table and its predecessors spans almost 200 years. The present IUPAC PT for Z = 1−118 is still adequate. The remarkable measurement for the Lr atom does not change the chemistry. The extensions up to Z = 172 are discussed and compared. New data for ions are presented. The “Madelung rule” is found to be surprisingly good even in that range.

  1. Stable one-dimensional periodic waves in Kerr-type saturable and quadratic nonlinear media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kartashov, Yaroslav V; Egorov, Alexey A; Vysloukh, Victor A; Torner, Lluis

    2004-01-01

    We review the latest progress and properties of the families of bright and dark one-dimensional periodic waves propagating in saturable Kerr-type and quadratic nonlinear media. We show how saturation of the nonlinear response results in the appearance of stability (instability) bands in a focusing (defocusing) medium, which is in sharp contrast with the properties of periodic waves in Kerr media. One of the key results discovered is the stabilization of multicolour periodic waves in quadratic media. In particular, dark-type waves are shown to be metastable, while bright-type waves are completely stable in a broad range of energy flows and material parameters. This yields the first known example of completely stable periodic wave patterns propagating in conservative uniform media supporting bright solitons. Such results open the way to the experimental observation of the corresponding self-sustained periodic wave patterns

  2. Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

    2017-10-01

    Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change

  3. Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

  4. Large projected increases in rain-on-snow flood potential over western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musselman, K. N.; Ikeda, K.; Barlage, M. J.; Lehner, F.; Liu, C.; Newman, A. J.; Prein, A. F.; Mizukami, N.; Gutmann, E. D.; Clark, M. P.; Rasmussen, R.

    2017-12-01

    In the western US and Canada, some of the largest annual flood events occur when warm storm systems drop substantial rainfall on extensive snow-cover. For example, last winter's Oroville dam crisis in California was exacerbated by rapid snowmelt during a rain-on-snow (ROS) event. We present an analysis of ROS events with flood-generating potential over western North America simulated at high-resolution by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run for both a 13-year control time period and re-run with a `business-as-usual' future (2071-2100) climate scenario. Daily ROS with flood-generating potential is defined as rainfall of at least 10 mm per day falling on snowpack of at least 10 mm water equivalent, where the sum of rainfall and snowmelt contains at least 20% snowmelt. In a warmer climate, ROS is less frequent in regions where it is historically common, and more frequent elsewhere. This is evidenced by large simulated reductions in snow-cover and ROS frequency at lower elevations, particularly in warmer, coastal regions, and greater ROS frequency at middle elevations and in inland regions. The same trend is reflected in the annual-average ROS runoff volume (rainfall + snowmelt) aggregated to major watersheds; large reductions of 25-75% are projected for much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, while large increases are simulated for the Colorado River basin, western Canada, and the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. In the warmer climate, snowmelt contributes substantially less to ROS runoff per unit rainfall, particularly in inland regions. The reduction in snowmelt contribution is due to a shift in ROS timing from warm spring events to cooler winter conditions and/or from warm, lower elevations to cool, higher elevations. However, the slower snowmelt is offset by an increase in rainfall intensity, maintaining the flood potential of ROS at or above historical levels. In fact, we report large projected increases in the intensity of extreme ROS events

  5. Increased Surface Wind Speeds Follow Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mioduszewski, J.; Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, M.; Holland, M. M.; Landrum, L.

    2017-12-01

    Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic Basin, due to changes in atmospheric stability and/or baroclinicity. Prior research on future Arctic wind changes is limited and has focused mainly on the practical impacts on wave heights in certain seasons. Here we attempt to identify patterns and likely mechanisms responsible for surface wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic, particularly those associated with sea ice loss in the marginal ice zone. Sea level pressure, near-surface (10 m) and upper-air (850 hPa) wind speeds, and lower-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) were analyzed for the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 to facilitate comparison between a present-day and future climate. Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 90th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by over 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (locally over 20 ºC warmer in autumn and winter). A muted pattern of these future changes is simulated in CESM-LE historical runs from 1920-2005. The enhanced winds near the surface are mostly collocated with weaker winds above the boundary layer during autumn and winter, implying more vigorous vertical mixing and a drawdown of high-momentum air.The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal hazards and the potential for a positive feedback with sea ice by generating higher winds and

  6. Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias

    2017-11-01

    In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57-130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73-150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75-147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63-133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95-189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34-75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 62 cm (40-96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 75 cm (47-113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 91 cm (61-132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr-1 and 19 mm yr-1 for FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US2005 tCO2 -1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

  7. Stress perception among patients in pre-colonoscopy period and those undergoing chemotherapy treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graziela de Souza Alves da Silva

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: comparing the perception of stress among patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy with those in pre-colonoscopy period. Methods: a comparative descriptive study developed with 144 people receiving chemotherapy and 100 patients in the pre-colonoscopy period, using biosocial and clinical data, Stress Assessment Tool and Perceived Stress Scale. Results: a predominance of females (73%, aged over 65 (50% were predominant for the pre-colonoscopy period patients. In patients receiving chemotherapy, gender parity with ages ranging from 40-64 years (68.1% was observed. Pre-colonoscopy patients showed higher perceived stress compared to those receiving chemotherapy (p <0.001. Conclusion: the phase of diagnostic definition represents greater stress to patients in comparison to period of treatment, even despite the characteristic manifestations of chemotherapy.

  8. Nuclear Energy Response in the EMF27 Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Son H.; Wada, Kenichi; Kurosawa, Atsushi; Roberts, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    The nuclear energy response for mitigating global climate change across eighteen participating models of the EMF27 study is investigated. Diverse perspectives on the future role of nuclear power in the global energy system are evident in the broad range of nuclear power contributions from participating models of the study. In the Baseline scenario without climate policy, nuclear electricity generation and shares span 0 - 66 EJ/ year and 0 - 25% in 2100 for all models, with a median nuclear electricity generation of 39 EJ/year (1,389 GWe at 90% capacity factor) and median share of 9%. The role of nuclear energy increased under the climate policy scenarios. The median of nuclear energy use across all models doubled in the 450 ppm CO2e scenario with a nuclear electricity generation of 67 EJ/year (2,352 GWe at 90% capacity factor) and share of 17% in 2100. The broad range of nuclear electricity generation (11 - 214 EJ/year) and shares (2 - 38%) in 2100 of the 450 ppm CO2e scenario reflect differences in the technology choice behavior, technology assumptions and competitiveness of low carbon technologies. Greater clarification of nuclear fuel cycle issues and risk factors associated with nuclear energy use are necessary for understanding the nuclear deployment constraints imposed in models and for improving the assessment of the nuclear energy potential in addressing climate change

  9. Estudios sobre Trypanosoma rangeli Tejera, 1920: VIII. Respuesta a las reinfecciones en dos mamíferos Trypanosoma rangeli Tejera, 1920: VIII. Responses to reinfections in 2 mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Añez

    1985-06-01

    Full Text Available Bajo condiciones experimentales se estudia el curso de la infección primaria y la respuesta a las reinfecciones por Trypanosoma rangeli en ratones albinos y Didelphis marsupialis. Durante el curso de la infección primaria en ratones, se observa una parasitemia relativamente baja y de corta duración. Los mismos muestran durante la primera reinfección una parasitemia escasa de cuatro días de duración, siendo resistentes a las sucesivas reinfecciones con T. rangeli. Los ejemplares de D. marsupialis exhiben una parasitemia de más larga duración, pero con un nivel de parásitos sanguícolas mucho menor que el detectado en el modelo ratón, siendo la respuesta a las reinfecciones similar a la observada en ratones. Se detectan anticuerpos hemaglutinantes en los sueros inmunes de ratones y Didelphis marsupialis, sometidos a la reinfección por T. rangeli. Se especula sobre la posible acción sinérgica de una respuesta inmune en el sitio de deposición en contra de las formas metacíclicas de T. rangeli y la acción de anticuerpos circulantes en contra de las formas sanguícolas, para explicar la resistencia de ambos modelos a las reinfecciones por T. rangeli.Under experimental conditions, the course of the infection and the response to the reinfection by Trypanosoma rangeli in mice and Didelphis marsupialis, are studied. During the initial infection the mice show a relatively low parasitaemia and a short patent period. A scanty parasitaemia level of four days length, was observed following the first reinfection, being the mice resistant to new reinfections by T. rangeli. In opossums a lower parasitaemia and a longer patent period than that detected in mice, were observed during the initial infection. The response to reinfections in this mammal, was similar to that observed in mice. After reinfection with T. rangeli, haemagglutinant antibodies in immune-sera of both mice and opossums, were detected. The possible immune-response at the site of

  10. The Role of Ocean and Atmospheric Heat Transport in the Arctic Amplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas Martes, R. M.; Kwon, Y. O.; Furey, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    Observational data and climate model projections have suggested that the Arctic region is warming around twice faster than the rest of the globe, which has been referred as the Arctic Amplification (AA). While the local feedbacks, e.g. sea ice-albedo feedback, are often suggested as the primary driver of AA by previous studies, the role of meridional heat transport by ocean and atmosphere is less clear. This study uses the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulation (CESM1-LE) to seek deeper understanding of the role meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat transports play in AA. The simulation consists of 40 ensemble members with the same physics and external forcing using a single fully coupled climate model. Each ensemble member spans two time periods; the historical period from 1920 to 2005 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical forcing and the future period from 2006 to 2100 using the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Each of the ensemble members are initialized with slightly different air temperatures. As the CESM1-LE uses a single model unlike the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the internal variability and the externally forced components can be separated more clearly. The projections are calculated by comparing the period 2081-2100 relative to the time period 2001-2020. The CESM1-LE projects an AA of 2.5-2.8 times faster than the global average, which is within the range of those from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. However, the spread of AA from the CESM1-LE, which is attributed to the internal variability, is 2-3 times smaller than that of the CMIP5 ensemble, which may also include the inter-model differences. CESM1LE projects a decrease in the atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic and an increase in the oceanic heat transport. The atmospheric heat transport is further decomposed into moisture transport and dry static energy transport. Also, the oceanic heat

  11. Entropy method of measuring and evaluating periodicity of quasi-periodic trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Yanshuo; Turitsyn, Konstantin; Baoyin, Hexi; Junfeng, Li

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method for measuring the periodicity of quasi-periodic trajectories by applying discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to the trajectories and analyzing the frequency domain within the concept of entropy. Having introduced the concept of entropy, analytical derivation and numerical results indicate that entropies increase as a logarithmic function of time. Periodic trajectories typically have higher entropies, and trajectories with higher entropies mean the periodicities of the motions are stronger. Theoretical differences between two trajectories expressed as summations of trigonometric functions are also derived analytically. Trajectories in the Henon-Heiles system and the circular restricted three-body problem (CRTBP) are analyzed with the indicator entropy and compared with orthogonal fast Lyapunov indicator (OFLI). The results show that entropy is a better tool for discriminating periodicity in quasiperiodic trajectories than OFLI and can detect periodicity while excluding the spirals that are judged as periodic cases by OFLI. Finally, trajectories in the vicinity of 243 Ida and 6489 Golevka are considered as examples, and the numerical results verify these conclusions. Some trajectories near asteroids look irregular, but their higher entropy values as analyzed by this method serve as evidence of frequency regularity in three directions. Moreover, these results indicate that applying DFT to the trajectories in the vicinity of irregular small bodies and calculating their entropy in the frequency domain provides a useful quantitative analysis method for evaluating orderliness in the periodicity of quasi-periodic trajectories within a given time interval.

  12. DIII-D tokamak long range plan. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    The DIII-D Tokamak Long Range Plan for controlled thermonuclear magnetic fusion research will be carried out with broad national and international participation. The plan covers: (1) operation of the DIII-D tokamak to conduct research experiments to address needs of the US Magnetic Fusion Program; (2) facility modifications to allow these new experiments to be conducted; and (3) collaborations with other laboratories to integrate DIII-D research into the national and international fusion programs. The period covered by this plan is 1 November 19983 through 31 October 1998

  13. Impact of the climate change to shallow groundwater in Baltic artesian basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauva, D.; Bethers, P.; Timuhins, A.; Sennikovs, J.

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of our work was to find the long term pattern of annual shallow ground water changes in region of Latvia, ground water level modelling for the contemporary climate and future climate scenarios and the model generalization to the Baltic artesian basin (BAB) region. Latvia is located in the middle part of BAB. It occupies about 65'000 square kilometers. BAB territory (480'000 square kilometres) also includes Lithuania, Estonia as well as parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and the Baltic Sea. Territory of BAB is more than seven times bigger than Latvia. Precipitation and spring snow melt are the main sources of the ground water recharge in BAB territory. The long term pattern of annual shallow ground water changes was extracted from the data of 25 monitoring wells in the territory of Latvia. The main Latvian groundwater level fluctuation regime can be described as a function with two maximums (in spring and late autumn) and two minimums (in winter and late summer). The mathematical model METUL (developed by Latvian University of Agriculture) was chosen for the ground water modelling. It was calibrated on the observations in 25 gauging wells around Latvia. After the calibration we made calculations using data provided by an ensemble of regional climate models, yielding a continuous groundwater table time-series from 1961 to 2100, which were analysed and split into 3 time windows for further analysis: contemporary climate (1961-1990), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100). The daily average temperature, precipitation and humidity time series were used as METUL forcing parameters. The statistical downscaling method (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) was applied for the bias correction of RCM calculated and measured variables. The qualitative differences in future and contemporary annual groundwater regime are expected. The future Latvian annual groundwater cycle according to the RCM climate projection changes to curve with one peak and one drought point

  14. Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections

    OpenAIRE

    Ševčíková, Hana; Li, Nan; Kantorová, Vladimíra; Gerland, Patrick; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$) using Bayesian hierarchical models, yielding a large set of future trajectories of TFR and $e_0$ for all countries and future time periods to 2100, sampled from their joint predictive distribution. Each trajectory was then converted to age-specific mortalit...

  15. TRANSITING PLANETS WITH LSST. II. PERIOD DETECTION OF PLANETS ORBITING 1 M{sub ⊙} HOSTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacklin, Savannah [Department of Astrophysics and Planetary Science, Villanova University, Villanova, PA 19085 (United States); Lund, Michael B.; Stassun, Keivan G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Pepper, Joshua [Department of Physics, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015 (United States)

    2015-07-15

    The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will photometrically monitor ∼10{sup 9} stars for 10 years. The resulting light curves can be used to detect transiting exoplanets. In particular, as demonstrated by Lund et al., LSST will probe stellar populations currently undersampled in most exoplanet transit surveys, including out to extragalactic distances. In this paper we test the efficiency of the box-fitting least-squares (BLS) algorithm for accurately recovering the periods of transiting exoplanets using simulated LSST data. We model planets with a range of radii orbiting a solar-mass star at a distance of 7 kpc, with orbital periods ranging from 0.5 to 20 days. We find that standard-cadence LSST observations will be able to reliably recover the periods of Hot Jupiters with periods shorter than ∼3 days; however, it will remain a challenge to confidently distinguish these transiting planets from false positives. At the same time, we find that the LSST deep-drilling cadence is extremely powerful: the BLS algorithm successfully recovers at least 30% of sub-Saturn-size exoplanets with orbital periods as long as 20 days, and a simple BLS power criterion robustly distinguishes ∼98% of these from photometric (i.e., statistical) false positives.

  16. 1-99 W. Hubbard St, May 2018, Lindsay Light Radiological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radiological Survey of Right-of-Way Utility Excavation.The count rates in the excavation ranged from 2,100 cpm to 4,200 cpm.No count rates were found at any time that exceeded the instrument specific threshold limits of 7,366 and 6,415 cpm.

  17. Vertebrate fauna of the Roman period, migrations period and Medieval period in Vojvodina (Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radmanović Darko P.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on current published and unpublished research results, a total of 16 vertebrate species members of mammal (Mammalia, bird (Aves and osteichthyes (Osteichthyes classes have been registered at 11 archaeological sites from the Roman Period in Vojvodina. Mammals dominate with 12 species and one genus, birds are present with 3 species, and osteichthyes with one. From the Migration Period, at 9 sites, 22 vertebrate species have been registered, of which 13 species and one genus of mammals, 4 species and one genus of birds, and 5 species from the Osteichthyes class. At 8 sites from the Medieval Period, 16 vertebrate species have been registered. Mammals are the most numerous class with 10 species and one genus, while birds are present with 4 species and one genus. Furthermore, two species of osteichthyes have also been registered.

  18. Violence in the prehistoric period of Japan: the spatio-temporal pattern of skeletal evidence for violence in the Jomon period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakao, Hisashi; Tamura, Kohei; Arimatsu, Yui; Nakagawa, Tomomi; Matsumoto, Naoko; Matsugi, Takehiko

    2016-03-01

    Whether man is predisposed to lethal violence, ranging from homicide to warfare, and how that may have impacted human evolution, are among the most controversial topics of debate on human evolution. Although recent studies on the evolution of warfare have been based on various archaeological and ethnographic data, they have reported mixed results: it is unclear whether or not warfare among prehistoric hunter-gatherers was common enough to be a component of human nature and a selective pressure for the evolution of human behaviour. This paper reports the mortality attributable to violence, and the spatio-temporal pattern of violence thus shown among ancient hunter-gatherers using skeletal evidence in prehistoric Japan (the Jomon period: 13 000 cal BC-800 cal BC). Our results suggest that the mortality due to violence was low and spatio-temporally highly restricted in the Jomon period, which implies that violence including warfare in prehistoric Japan was not common. © 2016 The Author(s).

  19. Commuting periodic operators and the periodic Wigner function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, J

    2004-01-01

    Commuting periodic operators (CPO) depending on the coordinate x-hat and the momentum p-hat operators are defined. The CPO are functions of the two basic commuting operators exp(i x-hat 2π/a) and exp(i/h p-hat a), with a being an arbitrary constant. A periodic Wigner function (PWF) w(x, p) is defined and it is shown that it is applicable in a normal expectation value calculation to the CPO, as done in the original Wigner paper. Moreover, this PWF is non-negative everywhere, and it can therefore be interpreted as an actual probability distribution. The PWF w(x, p) is shown to be given as an expectation value of the periodic Dirac delta function in the phase plane. (letter to the editor)

  20. Hidden magnetism in periodically modulated one dimensional dipolar fermions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazzini, S.; Montorsi, A.; Roncaglia, M.; Barbiero, L.

    2017-12-01

    The experimental realization of time-dependent ultracold lattice systems has paved the way towards the implementation of new Hubbard-like Hamiltonians. We show that in a one-dimensional two-components lattice dipolar Fermi gas the competition between long range repulsion and correlated hopping induced by periodically modulated on-site interaction allows for the formation of hidden magnetic phases, with degenerate protected edge modes. The magnetism, characterized solely by string-like nonlocal order parameters, manifests in the charge and/or in the spin degrees of freedom. Such behavior is enlighten by employing Luttinger liquid theory and numerical methods. The range of parameters for which hidden magnetism is present can be reached by means of the currently available experimental setups and probes.

  1. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen G Hamilton

    Full Text Available Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

  2. Capacities of Candidate Herbaceous Plants for Phytoremediation of Soil-based TNT and RDX on Ranges

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Best, Elly P; Smith, Thomas; Hagen, Frank L; Dawson, Jeffrey O; Torrey, Alan J

    2008-01-01

    .... In these experiments, plants were exposed for periods ranging from 55 to 83 days in the greenhouse, biomass and evapotranspiration characteristics were determined, and residues of explosives' parent...

  3. Using Elementary Mechanics to Estimate the Maximum Range of ICBMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and, more recently, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has added a grave threat to world order. The threat presented by these weapons depends critically on missile range, i.e., the ability to reach North America or Europe while carrying a nuclear warhead. Using the limited information available from near-vertical test flights, how do arms control experts estimate the maximum range of an ICBM? The purpose of this paper is to show, using mathematics and concepts appropriate to a first-year calculus-based mechanics class, how a missile's range can be estimated from the (observable) altitude attained during its test flights. This topic—while grim—affords an ideal opportunity to show students how the application of basic physical principles can inform and influence public policy. For students who are already familiar with Kepler's laws, it should be possible to present in a single class period.

  4. Erosividade das chuvas associada a períodos de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência no estado do Rio de Janeiro Rainfall erosivity associated to return periods and occurrence probability in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2013-04-01

    theoretical occurrence (P and return period (T of rainfall erosivity (EI30 and KE>25 for the State of Rio de Janeiro, as well as the spatialization of erosivity associated to return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years for the whole state. Average annual erosivity (EI30, or "R" factor of USLE, for any location in the state of Rio de Janeiro, can on average be equaled or surpassed at least once in a 1.8-2.1 year period, at a theoretical occurrence probability of 48.5 to 54.9 %. The locations with highest erosivity rates associated to return periods are located in the Metropolitan mesoregions as well as in parts of the South and Center Mesoregions. It was possible to identify 8-12 homogeneous regions of spatial distribution of erosivity associated to the return periods of 2-100 years in the state of Rio de Janeiro. In general, the variation of spatial distribution of erosivity was highest in a return period ranging from two to five years.

  5. Mating-related behaviour of grizzly bears inhabiting marginal habitat at the periphery of their North American range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

    2015-02-01

    In comparison to core populations, peripheral populations have low density and recruitment, and are subject to different selective pressures, such as environmental conditions, food type and availability, predation, disease, etc., which may result in behavioural modifications to mating. We test the roam-to-mate hypothesis for a peripheral population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) at the northern extent of their North American range, in Canada's Arctic. If bears are roaming-to-mate, we predicted greater range size and daily displacement, and more linear movements for receptive animals during the mating period compared to post-mating. In contrast to our predictions, we found that in general range size and displacement increased from mating to post-mating regardless of reproductive status. When considered across both periods, females with cubs-of-the-year had smaller range use metrics than other reproductive groups, which we attribute to a counter-strategy against sexually selected infanticide and the reduced mobility of cubs. Linearity of movements remained near zero during both periods across all groups, suggesting tortuous movements more characteristic of foraging than of mate-searching. We suggest that for this population, finding quality habitat takes precedence over mate-searching in this marginal Arctic landscape. Alternatively, a more monogamous mating system and sequestering behaviour may have obscured movement differences between the two periods. The behavioural differences in mating that we observed from what is typical of core populations may reflect local adaptation to marginal conditions and could benefit the species in the face of ongoing environmental change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Movement and Home Range of Nile Crocodiles in Ndumo Game Reserve, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. Calverley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The study of movement patterns and home range is fundamental in understanding the spatial requirements of animals and is important in generating information for the conservation and management of threatened species. Ndumo Game Reserve, in north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal, bordering Mozambique, has the third largest Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus population in South Africa. Movement patterns of 50 Nile crocodiles with a total length of between 202 cm and 472 cm were followed over a period of 18 months, using mark-resight, radio and satellite telemetry. The duration of radio transmitter attachment (131 ± 11.4 days was significantly and negatively related to total length and reproductive status. Satellite transmitters failed after an average of 15 ± 12.5 days. Home range was calculated for individuals with 10 or more radio locations, spanning a period of at least 6 months. There was a significant relationship between home range size and total length, with sub-adults (1.5 m – 2.5 m occupying smaller, more localised home ranges than adults (> 2.5 m. The largest home ranges were for adults (> 2.5 m. Home ranges overlapped extensively, suggesting that territoriality, if present, does not result in spatially discrete home ranges of Nile crocodiles in Ndumo Game Reserve during the dry season. Larger crocodiles moved farther and more frequently than smaller crocodiles. The reserve acts as a winter refuge and spring breeding site for an estimated 846 crocodiles, which also inhabit the Rio Maputo during the summer months. Nile crocodile movement out of the reserve and into the Rio Maputo starts in November and crocodiles return to the reserve as water levels in the floodplain recede in May. Conservation implications: Movement patterns of Nile crocodiles show the important role the reserve plays in the conservation of Nile crocodile populations within the greater Ndumo Game Reserve–Rio Maputo area.

  7. Second species of tree frog, Hyla orientalis (formely H. arborea) from Iran confirmed by acoustic data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gvoždík, Václav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 3, - (2010), s. 41-44 ISSN 2071-5773 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50450515 Keywords : Hyla orientalis * Hyla savignyi * Distribution Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  8. Note on nonlinear seismic response of reinforced concrete structures with low initial periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sozen, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    This note was prepared to illustrate by specific examples an opinion on the seismic response of reinforced concrete structures with low initial periods. The object is to point out what the writer considers to be important in relation to the behavior of such structures at levels of ground shaking higher than indicated by design criteria. Structures of concern are assumed to have low initial periods. A structure with a low initial period is assumed to have both of two attributes: (a) its flexural stiffness is high so that its total overall lateral deformation is not dominated by flexural deformation and (b) its calculated period is below the one at which the calculated response spectrum may be idealized to change from the nearly-constant acceleration to the nearly-constant velocity response range

  9. Periodic Impact Cratering and Extinction Events Over the Last 260 Million Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.; Caldeira, Ken

    2015-01-01

    The claims of periodicity in impact cratering and biological extinction events are controversial. Anewly revised record of dated impact craters has been analyzed for periodicity, and compared with the record of extinctions over the past 260 Myr. A digital circular spectral analysis of 37 crater ages (ranging in age from 15 to 254 Myr ago) yielded evidence for a significant 25.8 +/- 0.6 Myr cycle. Using the same method, we found a significant 27.0 +/- 0.7 Myr cycle in the dates of the eight recognized marine extinction events over the same period. The cycles detected in impacts and extinctions have a similar phase. The impact crater dataset shows 11 apparent peaks in the last 260 Myr, at least 5 of which correlate closely with significant extinction peaks. These results suggest that the hypothesis of periodic impacts and extinction events is still viable.

  10. Ranging Behaviour of Commercial Free-Range Broiler Chickens 2: Individual Variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Peta S; Hemsworth, Paul H; Groves, Peter J; Gebhardt-Henrich, Sabine G; Rault, Jean-Loup

    2017-07-20

    Little is known about broiler chicken ranging behaviour. Previous studies have monitored ranging behaviour at flock level but whether individual ranging behaviour varies within a flock is unknown. Using Radio Frequency Identification technology, we tracked 1200 individual ROSS 308 broiler chickens across four mixed sex flocks in two seasons on one commercial farm. Ranging behaviour was tracked from first day of range access (21 days of age) until 35 days of age in winter flocks and 44 days of age in summer flocks. We identified groups of chickens that differed in frequency of range visits: chickens that never accessed the range (13 to 67% of tagged chickens), low ranging chickens (15 to 44% of tagged chickens) that accounted for range visits and included chickens that used the range only once (6 to 12% of tagged chickens), and high ranging chickens (3 to 9% of tagged chickens) that accounted for 33 to 50% of all range visits. Males spent longer on the range than females in winter ( p ranging behaviour may help optimise ranging opportunities in free-range systems and is important to elucidate the potential welfare implications of ranging.

  11. High-power, continuous-wave, single-frequency, all-periodically-poled, near-infrared source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devi, Kavita; Chaitanya Kumar, S; Ebrahim-Zadeh, M

    2012-12-15

    We report a high-power, single-frequency, continuous-wave (cw) source tunable across 775-807 nm in the near-infrared, based on internal second harmonic generation (SHG) of a cw singly-resonant optical parametric oscillator (OPO) pumped by a Yb-fiber laser. The compact, all-periodically-poled source employs a 48-mm-long, multigrating MgO doped periodically poled lithium niobate (MgO:PPLN) crystal for the OPO and a 30-mm-long, fan-out grating MgO-doped stoichiometric periodically poled lithium tantalate (MgO:sPPLT) crystal for intracavity SHG, providing as much as 3.7 W of near-infrared power at 793 nm, together with 4 W of idler power at 3232 nm, at an overall extraction efficiency of 28%. Further, the cw OPO is tunable across 3125-3396 nm in the idler, providing as much as 4.3 W at 3133 nm with >3.8  W over 77% of the tuning range together with >3  W of near-infrared power across 56% of SHG tuning range, in high-spatial beam-quality with M2<1.4. The SHG output has an instantaneous linewidth of 8.5 MHz and exhibits a passive power stability better than 3.5% rms over more than 1 min.

  12. Factors influencing period from surgery to discharge in patients with femoral trochanteric fractures

    OpenAIRE

    Shinoda, Soichiro; Mutsuzaki, Hirotaka; Watanabe, Arata; Morita, Hidetaka; Kamioka, Yumiko

    2017-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate factors influencing the period from surgery to discharge in patients with femoral trochanteric fractures. [Subjects and Methods] Sixty patients with femoral trochanteric fractures were investigated retrospectively. Based on the mean period from surgery to discharge (85.6 ± 26.6 days), the patients were divided into two groups: an under-85-day group (range, 29–78 days) and an over-85-day group (87–128 days). Age, gender, fracture type, pre...

  13. Organ dose from inhaled radionuclides taking lull period into account

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datta, S.

    1982-01-01

    The dosimetry of inhaled radionuclides is generally carried out in accordance with the lung model recommended by the ICRP Task Group on Lung Dynamics. The relevant expressions are integrated over a given period, assuming continuous inhalation in an atmosphere of constant aerosol concentration. Though for the same amount of intake the dose commitment is found to be independent of variations in the rate of intake, the dose determined over specific intervals of time, is influenced by it or by lull intervals therein. Formulae are developed to arrive at doses to different organs when the subject's intake is constant and continuous for 8 hours, followed by a lull period of 16 hours each day. Results are given for a number of radionuclides and are compared with values characteristic of continuous inhalation. It is observed that when exposure is assumed to be continuous the dose for the same intake of activity is underestimated as compared to the dose when lull period is taken into account. For working periods of 6 days and 30 days the underestimate ranges from 5%-20% and 0.6% to 4.5% respectively. (author)

  14. Perfect coupling of light to a periodic dielectric/metal/dielectric structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhengling; Li, Shiqiang; Chang, R. P. H.; Ketterson, John B.

    2014-07-01

    Using the finite difference time domain method, it is demonstrated that perfect coupling can be achieved between normally incident light and a periodic dielectric/metal/dielectric structure. The structure serves as a diffraction grating that excites modes related to the long range surface plasmon and short range surface plasmon modes that propagate on continuous metallic films. By optimizing the structural dimensions, perfect coupling is achieved between the incident light and these modes. A high Q of 697 and an accompanying ultrasharp linewidth of 0.8 nm are predicted for a 10 nm silver film for optimal conditions.

  15. Promoting Affordability in Defense Acquisitions: A Multi-Period Portfolio Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-30

    has evolved out of many areas of research, ranging from economics to modern control theory (Powell, 2011). The general form of a dynamic programming...states 5 School of Aeronautics & Astronautics A Portfolio Approach: Background • Balance expected profit (performance) against risk ( variance ) in...investments (Markowitz 1952) • Efficiency frontier of optimal portfolios given investor risk averseness • Extends to multi-period case with various

  16. The Periodic Pyramid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennigan, Jennifer N.; Grubbs, W. Tandy

    2013-01-01

    The chemical elements present in the modern periodic table are arranged in terms of atomic numbers and chemical periodicity. Periodicity arises from quantum mechanical limitations on how many electrons can occupy various shells and subshells of an atom. The shell model of the atom predicts that a maximum of 2, 8, 18, and 32 electrons can occupy…

  17. Middle Helladic Period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarri, Kalliopi

    1999-01-01

    and their quality was improved considerably toward the end of this period. The profound cultural innovations of the Middle Helladic period were initially interpreted as a result of violent population movement and troubles provoked by the coming of the first Indo-European races. However, this matter does no more...... Helladic period is considered as a period of economic and social decline it was the time during which the mainland features merged with the insular influence, that is all the Aegean elements which led to the creation of the Mycenaean civilization were mixed in a creative way....

  18. Natural convection in square enclosure induced by inner circular cylinder with time-periodic pulsating temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Zhu

    2015-03-01

    The periodic unsteady natural convection flow and heat transfer in a square enclosure containing a concentric circular cylinder is numerically studied. The temperature of the inner circular cylinder fluctuates periodically with time at higher averaged value while the temperature of the enclosure keeps lower constant, and the natural convection is driven by the temperature difference. The two-dimensional natural convection is simulated with high accuracy temporal spectral method and local radial basis functions method. The Rayleigh number is studied in the range 103 ≤ Ra ≤ 106, the temperature pulsating period ranges from 0.01 to 100 and the temperature pulsating amplitudes are a = 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5. Numerical results reveal that the fluid flow and heat transfer is strongly dependent on the pulsating temperature of inner cylinder. Comparing with the steady state natural convection, the heat transfer is enhanced generally for the time-periodic unsteady natural convection, and the local maximum heat transfer rate is observed for Ra = 105 and 106. Moreover, the phenomenon of backward heat transfer is discussed quantitatively. Also, the influence of pulsating temperature on the unsteady fluid flow and heat transfer are discussed and analyzed.

  19. Sea-Level Rise by 2100

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A; Clark, P.A; Cazenave, A; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A; Merrifield, M.A; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    , at which all four researchers were present. Hartmann and Davis directly acknowledged this in a footnote in their paper. Published by AAAS o n D ec em be r 1 9, 2 01 3 w w w .s ci en ce m ag .o rg D ow nl oa de d fro m o n D ec em be r 1 9, 2... VOL 342 20 DECEMBER 2013 1445 LETTERS edited by Jennifer Sills 1462 COMMENTARY LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES 1452 Defending the nest IBI Prize Essay C R E D IT : A N D R E W M A N D E M A K E R /W IK IM E...

  20. Periodic local MP2 method employing orbital specific virtuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usvyat, Denis; Schütz, Martin; Maschio, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    We introduce orbital specific virtuals (OSVs) to represent the truncated pair-specific virtual space in periodic local Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of second order (LMP2). The OSVs are constructed by diagonalization of the LMP2 amplitude matrices which correspond to diagonal Wannier-function (WF) pairs. Only a subset of these OSVs is adopted for the subsequent OSV-LMP2 calculation, namely, those with largest contribution to the diagonal pair correlation energy and with the accumulated value of these contributions reaching a certain accuracy. The virtual space for a general (non diagonal) pair is spanned by the union of the two OSV sets related to the individual WFs of the pair. In the periodic LMP2 method, the diagonal LMP2 amplitude matrices needed for the construction of the OSVs are calculated in the basis of projected atomic orbitals (PAOs), employing very large PAO domains. It turns out that the OSVs are excellent to describe short range correlation, yet less appropriate for long range van der Waals correlation. In order to compensate for this bias towards short range correlation, we augment the virtual space spanned by the OSVs by the most diffuse PAOs of the corresponding minimal PAO domain. The Fock and overlap matrices in OSV basis are constructed in the reciprocal space. The 4-index electron repulsion integrals are calculated by local density fitting and, for distant pairs, via multipole approximation. New procedures for determining the fit-domains and the distant-pair lists, leading to higher efficiency in the 4-index integral evaluation, have been implemented. Generally, and in contrast to our previous PAO based periodic LMP2 method, the OSV-LMP2 method does not require anymore great care in the specification of the individual domains (to get a balanced description when calculating energy differences) and is in that sense a black box procedure. Discontinuities in potential energy surfaces, which may occur for PAO-based calculations if one is not