MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF MULTIFOCAL STOCHASTIC SCANNING SYSTEM

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LIXIN LIU

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Multifocal multiphoton microscopy (MMM has greatly improved the utilization of excitation light and imaging speed due to parallel multiphoton excitation of the samples and simultaneous detection of the signals, which allows it to perform three-dimensional fast fluorescence imaging. Stochastic scanning can provide continuous, uniform and high-speed excitation of the sample, which makes it a suitable scanning scheme for MMM. In this paper, the graphical programming language — LabVIEW is used to achieve stochastic scanning of the two-dimensional galvo scanners by using white noise signals to control the x and y mirrors independently. Moreover, the stochastic scanning process is simulated by using Monte Carlo method. Our results show that MMM can avoid oversampling or subsampling in the scanning area and meet the requirements of uniform sampling by stochastically scanning the individual units of the N × N foci array. Therefore, continuous and uniform scanning in the whole field of view is implemented.

Determining the energy performance of manually controlled solar shades: A stochastic model based co-simulation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao, Jian

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Driving factor for adjustment of manually controlled solar shades was determined. • A stochastic model for manual solar shades was constructed using Markov method. • Co-simulation with Energyplus was carried out in BCVTB. • External shading even manually controlled should be used prior to LOW-E windows. • Previous studies on manual solar shades may overestimate energy savings. - Abstract: Solar shading devices play a significant role in reducing building energy consumption and maintaining a comfortable indoor condition. In this paper, a typical office building with internal roller shades in hot summer and cold winter zone was selected to determine the driving factor of control behavior of manual solar shades. Solar radiation was determined as the major factor in driving solar shading adjustment based on field measurements and logit analysis and then a stochastic model for manually adjusted solar shades was constructed by using Markov method. This model was used in BCVTB for further co-simulation with Energyplus to determine the impact of the control behavior of solar shades on energy performance. The results show that manually adjusted solar shades, whatever located inside or outside, have a relatively high energy saving performance than clear-pane windows while only external shades perform better than regularly used LOW-E windows. Simulation also indicates that using an ideal assumption of solar shade adjustment as most studies do in building simulation may lead to an overestimation of energy saving by about 16–30%. There is a need to improve occupants’ actions on shades to more effectively respond to outdoor conditions in order to lower energy consumption, and this improvement can be easily achieved by using simple strategies as a guide to control manual solar shades

Simulation of anaerobic digestion processes using stochastic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Palanichamy, Jegathambal; Palani, Sundarambal

2014-01-01

The Anaerobic Digestion (AD) processes involve numerous complex biological and chemical reactions occurring simultaneously. Appropriate and efficient models are to be developed for simulation of anaerobic digestion systems. Although several models have been developed, mostly they suffer from lack of knowledge on constants, complexity and weak generalization. The basis of the deterministic approach for modelling the physico and bio-chemical reactions occurring in the AD system is the law of mass action, which gives the simple relationship between the reaction rates and the species concentrations. The assumptions made in the deterministic models are not hold true for the reactions involving chemical species of low concentration. The stochastic behaviour of the physicochemical processes can be modeled at mesoscopic level by application of the stochastic algorithms. In this paper a stochastic algorithm (Gillespie Tau Leap Method) developed in MATLAB was applied to predict the concentration of glucose, acids and methane formation at different time intervals. By this the performance of the digester system can be controlled. The processes given by ADM1 (Anaerobic Digestion Model 1) were taken for verification of the model. The proposed model was verified by comparing the results of Gillespie's algorithms with the deterministic solution for conversion of glucose into methane through degraders. At higher value of 'τ' (timestep), the computational time required for reaching the steady state is more since the number of chosen reactions is less. When the simulation time step is reduced, the results are similar to ODE solver. It was concluded that the stochastic algorithm is a suitable approach for the simulation of complex anaerobic digestion processes. The accuracy of the results depends on the optimum selection of tau value.

Stochastic model simulation using Kronecker product analysis and Zassenhaus formula approximation.

Science.gov (United States)

Caglar, Mehmet Umut; Pal, Ranadip

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Models are regularly applied in Genetic Regulatory Network modeling to capture the stochastic behavior observed in the generation of biological entities such as mRNA or proteins. Several approaches including Stochastic Master Equations and Probabilistic Boolean Networks have been proposed to model the stochastic behavior in genetic regulatory networks. It is generally accepted that Stochastic Master Equation is a fundamental model that can describe the system being investigated in fine detail, but the application of this model is computationally enormously expensive. On the other hand, Probabilistic Boolean Network captures only the coarse-scale stochastic properties of the system without modeling the detailed interactions. We propose a new approximation of the stochastic master equation model that is able to capture the finer details of the modeled system including bistabilities and oscillatory behavior, and yet has a significantly lower computational complexity. In this new method, we represent the system using tensors and derive an identity to exploit the sparse connectivity of regulatory targets for complexity reduction. The algorithm involves an approximation based on Zassenhaus formula to represent the exponential of a sum of matrices as product of matrices. We derive upper bounds on the expected error of the proposed model distribution as compared to the stochastic master equation model distribution. Simulation results of the application of the model to four different biological benchmark systems illustrate performance comparable to detailed stochastic master equation models but with considerably lower computational complexity. The results also demonstrate the reduced complexity of the new approach as compared to commonly used Stochastic Simulation Algorithm for equivalent accuracy.

GillespieSSA: Implementing the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm in R

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Mario Pineda-Krch

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The deterministic dynamics of populations in continuous time are traditionally described using coupled, first-order ordinary differential equations. While this approach is accurate for large systems, it is often inadequate for small systems where key species may be present in small numbers or where key reactions occur at a low rate. The Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA is a procedure for generating time-evolution trajectories of finite populations in continuous time and has become the standard algorithm for these types of stochastic models. This article presents a simple-to-use and flexible framework for implementing the SSA using the high-level statistical computing language R and the package GillespieSSA. Using three ecological models as examples (logistic growth, Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model, and Kermack-McKendrick SIRS metapopulation model, this paper shows how a deterministic model can be formulated as a finite-population stochastic model within the framework of SSA theory and how it can be implemented in R. Simulations of the stochastic models are performed using four different SSA Monte Carlo methods: one exact method (Gillespie's direct method; and three approximate methods (explicit, binomial, and optimized tau-leap methods. Comparison of simulation results confirms that while the time-evolution trajectories obtained from the different SSA methods are indistinguishable, the approximate methods are up to four orders of magnitude faster than the exact methods.

Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

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Andrew Phillips

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instantiated with the stochastic simulation algorithm known as Gillespie's Direct Method. We also discuss the wider implications of such an abstract machine, and outline how it can be used to simulate multiple calculi simultaneously within a common framework.

Stochastic simulations of the tetracycline operon

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background The tetracycline operon is a self-regulated system. It is found naturally in bacteria where it confers resistance to antibiotic tetracycline. Because of the performance of the molecular elements of the tetracycline operon, these elements are widely used as parts of synthetic gene networks where the protein production can be efficiently turned on and off in response to the presence or the absence of tetracycline. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the tetracycline operon. To this end, we develop a mathematical model guided by experimental findings. Our model consists of biochemical reactions that capture the biomolecular interactions of this intriguing system. Having in mind that small biological systems are subjects to stochasticity, we use a stochastic algorithm to simulate the tetracycline operon behavior. A sensitivity analysis of two critical parameters embodied this system is also performed providing a useful understanding of the function of this system. Results Simulations generate a timeline of biomolecular events that confer resistance to bacteria against tetracycline. We monitor the amounts of intracellular TetR2 and TetA proteins, the two important regulatory and resistance molecules, as a function of intrecellular tetracycline. We find that lack of one of the promoters of the tetracycline operon has no influence on the total behavior of this system inferring that this promoter is not essential for Escherichia coli. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the binding strength of tetracycline to repressor and of repressor to operators suggests that these two parameters play a predominant role in the behavior of the system. The results of the simulations agree well with experimental observations such as tight repression, fast gene expression, induction with tetracycline, and small intracellular TetR2 amounts. Conclusions Computer simulations of the tetracycline operon afford augmented insight into the interplay between its molecular

Stochastic simulations of the tetracycline operon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaznessis Yiannis N

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The tetracycline operon is a self-regulated system. It is found naturally in bacteria where it confers resistance to antibiotic tetracycline. Because of the performance of the molecular elements of the tetracycline operon, these elements are widely used as parts of synthetic gene networks where the protein production can be efficiently turned on and off in response to the presence or the absence of tetracycline. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the tetracycline operon. To this end, we develop a mathematical model guided by experimental findings. Our model consists of biochemical reactions that capture the biomolecular interactions of this intriguing system. Having in mind that small biological systems are subjects to stochasticity, we use a stochastic algorithm to simulate the tetracycline operon behavior. A sensitivity analysis of two critical parameters embodied this system is also performed providing a useful understanding of the function of this system. Results Simulations generate a timeline of biomolecular events that confer resistance to bacteria against tetracycline. We monitor the amounts of intracellular TetR2 and TetA proteins, the two important regulatory and resistance molecules, as a function of intrecellular tetracycline. We find that lack of one of the promoters of the tetracycline operon has no influence on the total behavior of this system inferring that this promoter is not essential for Escherichia coli. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the binding strength of tetracycline to repressor and of repressor to operators suggests that these two parameters play a predominant role in the behavior of the system. The results of the simulations agree well with experimental observations such as tight repression, fast gene expression, induction with tetracycline, and small intracellular TetR2 amounts. Conclusions Computer simulations of the tetracycline operon afford augmented insight into the

Simulation of Stochastic Loads for Fatigue Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

1989-01-01

process by a Markov process. Two different spectra from two tubular joints in an offshore structure (one narrow banded and one wide banded) are considered in an example. The results show that the simple direct method is quite efficient and results in a simulation speed of about 3000 load cycles per second......A simple direct simulation method for stochastic fatigue-load generation is described in this paper. The simulation method is based on the assumption that only the peaks of the load process significantly affect the fatigue life. The method requires the conditional distribution functions of load...... ranges given the last peak values. Analytical estimates of these distribution functions are presented in the paper and compared with estimates based on a more accurate simulation method. In the more accurate simulation method samples at equidistant times are generated by approximating the stochastic load...

Simulation of Stochastic Loads for Fatigue Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Brincker, Rune

process by a Markov process. Two different spectra from two tubular joints in an offshore structure (one narrow banded and one wide banded) are considered in an example. The results show that the simple direct method is quite efficient and is results in a simulation speed at about 3000 load cycles per......A simple direct simulation method for stochastic fatigue load generation is described in this paper. The simulation method is based on the assumption that only the peaks of the load process significantly affect the fatigue life. The method requires the conditional distribution functions of load...... ranges given the last peak values. Analytical estimates of these distribution functions are presented in the paper and compared with estimates based on a more accurate simulation method. In the more accurate simulation method samples at equidistant times are generated by approximating the stochastic load...

Stochastic models to simulate paratuberculosis in dairy herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Weber, M.F.; Kudahl, Anne Margrethe Braad

2011-01-01

Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use...... the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution...

Simulation of quantum dynamics based on the quantum stochastic differential equation.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ming

2013-01-01

The quantum stochastic differential equation derived from the Lindblad form quantum master equation is investigated. The general formulation in terms of environment operators representing the quantum state diffusion is given. The numerical simulation algorithm of stochastic process of direct photodetection of a driven two-level system for the predictions of the dynamical behavior is proposed. The effectiveness and superiority of the algorithm are verified by the performance analysis of the accuracy and the computational cost in comparison with the classical Runge-Kutta algorithm.

Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

2018-03-01

Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

Multiscale Hy3S: Hybrid stochastic simulation for supercomputers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaznessis Yiannis N

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic simulation has become a useful tool to both study natural biological systems and design new synthetic ones. By capturing the intrinsic molecular fluctuations of "small" systems, these simulations produce a more accurate picture of single cell dynamics, including interesting phenomena missed by deterministic methods, such as noise-induced oscillations and transitions between stable states. However, the computational cost of the original stochastic simulation algorithm can be high, motivating the use of hybrid stochastic methods. Hybrid stochastic methods partition the system into multiple subsets and describe each subset as a different representation, such as a jump Markov, Poisson, continuous Markov, or deterministic process. By applying valid approximations and self-consistently merging disparate descriptions, a method can be considerably faster, while retaining accuracy. In this paper, we describe Hy3S, a collection of multiscale simulation programs. Results Building on our previous work on developing novel hybrid stochastic algorithms, we have created the Hy3S software package to enable scientists and engineers to both study and design extremely large well-mixed biological systems with many thousands of reactions and chemical species. We have added adaptive stochastic numerical integrators to permit the robust simulation of dynamically stiff biological systems. In addition, Hy3S has many useful features, including embarrassingly parallelized simulations with MPI; special discrete events, such as transcriptional and translation elongation and cell division; mid-simulation perturbations in both the number of molecules of species and reaction kinetic parameters; combinatorial variation of both initial conditions and kinetic parameters to enable sensitivity analysis; use of NetCDF optimized binary format to quickly read and write large datasets; and a simple graphical user interface, written in Matlab, to help users

Simple stochastic simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Schilstra, Maria J; Martin, Stephen R

2009-01-01

Stochastic simulations may be used to describe changes with time of a reaction system in a way that explicitly accounts for the fact that molecules show a significant degree of randomness in their dynamic behavior. The stochastic approach is almost invariably used when small numbers of molecules or molecular assemblies are involved because this randomness leads to significant deviations from the predictions of the conventional deterministic (or continuous) approach to the simulation of biochemical kinetics. Advances in computational methods over the three decades that have elapsed since the publication of Daniel Gillespie's seminal paper in 1977 (J. Phys. Chem. 81, 2340-2361) have allowed researchers to produce highly sophisticated models of complex biological systems. However, these models are frequently highly specific for the particular application and their description often involves mathematical treatments inaccessible to the nonspecialist. For anyone completely new to the field to apply such techniques in their own work might seem at first sight to be a rather intimidating prospect. However, the fundamental principles underlying the approach are in essence rather simple, and the aim of this article is to provide an entry point to the field for a newcomer. It focuses mainly on these general principles, both kinetic and computational, which tend to be not particularly well covered in specialist literature, and shows that interesting information may even be obtained using very simple operations in a conventional spreadsheet.

Accurate reaction-diffusion operator splitting on tetrahedral meshes for parallel stochastic molecular simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hepburn, I.; De Schutter, E., E-mail: erik@oist.jp [Computational Neuroscience Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Onna, Okinawa 904 0495 (Japan); Theoretical Neurobiology & Neuroengineering, University of Antwerp, Antwerp 2610 (Belgium); Chen, W. [Computational Neuroscience Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Onna, Okinawa 904 0495 (Japan)

2016-08-07

Spatial stochastic molecular simulations in biology are limited by the intense computation required to track molecules in space either in a discrete time or discrete space framework, which has led to the development of parallel methods that can take advantage of the power of modern supercomputers in recent years. We systematically test suggested components of stochastic reaction-diffusion operator splitting in the literature and discuss their effects on accuracy. We introduce an operator splitting implementation for irregular meshes that enhances accuracy with minimal performance cost. We test a range of models in small-scale MPI simulations from simple diffusion models to realistic biological models and find that multi-dimensional geometry partitioning is an important consideration for optimum performance. We demonstrate performance gains of 1-3 orders of magnitude in the parallel implementation, with peak performance strongly dependent on model specification.

Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

CERN Document Server

Nelson, Barry L

1995-01-01

A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

Simulation-Based Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of a Mach 4.5 Mixed-Compression Intake Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, H.; Ito, K.

2009-01-01

A sensitivity analysis of a supersonic mixed-compression intake of a variable-cycle turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) engine is presented. The TBCC engine is de- signed to power a long-range Mach 4.5 transport capable of antipodal missions studied in the framework of an EU FP6 project, LAPCAT. The nominal intake geometry was designed using DLR abpi cycle analysis pro- gram by taking into account various operating require- ments of a typical mission profile. The intake consists of two movable external compression ramps followed by an isolator section with bleed channel. The compressed air is then diffused through a rectangular-to-circular subsonic diffuser. A multi-block Reynolds-averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solver with Srinivasan-Tannehill equilibrium air model was used to compute the total pressure recovery and mass capture fraction. While RANS simulation of the nominal intake configuration provides more realistic performance characteristics of the intake than the cycle analysis program, the intake design must also take into account in-flight uncertainties for robust intake performance. In this study, we focus on the effects of the geometric uncertainties on pressure recovery and mass capture fraction, and propose a practical approach to simulation-based sensitivity analysis. The method begins by constructing a light-weight analytical model, a radial-basis function (RBF) network, trained via adaptively sampled RANS simulation results. Using the RBF network as the response surface approximation, stochastic sensitivity analysis is performed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique by Sobol. This approach makes it possible to perform a generalized multi-input- multi-output sensitivity analysis based on high-fidelity RANS simulation. The resulting Sobol's influence indices allow the engineer to identify dominant parameters as well as the degree of interaction among multiple parameters, which can then be fed back into the design cycle.

Constraining Stochastic Parametrisation Schemes Using High-Resolution Model Simulations

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Christensen, H. M.; Dawson, A.; Palmer, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic parametrisations are used in weather and climate models as a physically motivated way to represent model error due to unresolved processes. Designing new stochastic schemes has been the target of much innovative research over the last decade. While a focus has been on developing physically motivated approaches, many successful stochastic parametrisation schemes are very simple, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) multiplicative scheme `Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies' (SPPT). The SPPT scheme improves the skill of probabilistic weather and seasonal forecasts, and so is widely used. However, little work has focused on assessing the physical basis of the SPPT scheme. We address this matter by using high-resolution model simulations to explicitly measure the `error' in the parametrised tendency that SPPT seeks to represent. The high resolution simulations are first coarse-grained to the desired forecast model resolution before they are used to produce initial conditions and forcing data needed to drive the ECMWF Single Column Model (SCM). By comparing SCM forecast tendencies with the evolution of the high resolution model, we can measure the `error' in the forecast tendencies. In this way, we provide justification for the multiplicative nature of SPPT, and for the temporal and spatial scales of the stochastic perturbations. However, we also identify issues with the SPPT scheme. It is therefore hoped these measurements will improve both holistic and process based approaches to stochastic parametrisation. Figure caption: Instantaneous snapshot of the optimal SPPT stochastic perturbation, derived by comparing high-resolution simulations with a low resolution forecast model.

Stochastic simulation of regional groundwater flow in Beishan area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong Yanhui; Li Guomin

2010-01-01

Because of the hydrogeological complexity, traditional thinking of aquifer characteristics is not appropriate for groundwater system in Beishan area. Uncertainty analysis of groundwater models is needed to examine the hydrologic effects of spatial heterogeneity. In this study, fast Fourier transform spectral method (FFTS) was used to generate the random horizontal permeability parameters. Depth decay and vertical anisotropy of hydraulic conductivity were included to build random permeability models. Based on high-performance computers, hundreds of groundwater flow models were simulated. Through stochastic simulations, the effect of heterogeneity to groundwater flow pattern was analyzed. (authors)

Stochastic sensitivity analysis and Langevin simulation for neural network learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koda, Masato

1997-01-01

A comprehensive theoretical framework is proposed for the learning of a class of gradient-type neural networks with an additive Gaussian white noise process. The study is based on stochastic sensitivity analysis techniques, and formal expressions are obtained for stochastic learning laws in terms of functional derivative sensitivity coefficients. The present method, based on Langevin simulation techniques, uses only the internal states of the network and ubiquitous noise to compute the learning information inherent in the stochastic correlation between noise signals and the performance functional. In particular, the method does not require the solution of adjoint equations of the back-propagation type. Thus, the present algorithm has the potential for efficiently learning network weights with significantly fewer computations. Application to an unfolded multi-layered network is described, and the results are compared with those obtained by using a back-propagation method

FERN - a Java framework for stochastic simulation and evaluation of reaction networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Erhard, Florian; Friedel, Caroline C; Zimmer, Ralf

2008-08-29

Stochastic simulation can be used to illustrate the development of biological systems over time and the stochastic nature of these processes. Currently available programs for stochastic simulation, however, are limited in that they either a) do not provide the most efficient simulation algorithms and are difficult to extend, b) cannot be easily integrated into other applications or c) do not allow to monitor and intervene during the simulation process in an easy and intuitive way. Thus, in order to use stochastic simulation in innovative high-level modeling and analysis approaches more flexible tools are necessary. In this article, we present FERN (Framework for Evaluation of Reaction Networks), a Java framework for the efficient simulation of chemical reaction networks. FERN is subdivided into three layers for network representation, simulation and visualization of the simulation results each of which can be easily extended. It provides efficient and accurate state-of-the-art stochastic simulation algorithms for well-mixed chemical systems and a powerful observer system, which makes it possible to track and control the simulation progress on every level. To illustrate how FERN can be easily integrated into other systems biology applications, plugins to Cytoscape and CellDesigner are included. These plugins make it possible to run simulations and to observe the simulation progress in a reaction network in real-time from within the Cytoscape or CellDesigner environment. FERN addresses shortcomings of currently available stochastic simulation programs in several ways. First, it provides a broad range of efficient and accurate algorithms both for exact and approximate stochastic simulation and a simple interface for extending to new algorithms. FERN's implementations are considerably faster than the C implementations of gillespie2 or the Java implementations of ISBJava. Second, it can be used in a straightforward way both as a stand-alone program and within new

Improved operating strategies for uranium extraction: a stochastic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broekman, B.R.

1986-01-01

Deterministic and stochastic simulations of a Western Transvaal uranium process are used in this research report to determine more profitable uranium plant operating strategies and to gauge the potential financial benefits of automatic process control. The deterministic simulation model was formulated using empirical and phenomenological process models. The model indicated that profitability increases significantly as the uranium leaching strategy becomes harsher. The stochastic simulation models use process variable distributions corresponding to manually and automatically controlled conditions to investigate the economic gains that may be obtained if a change is made from manual to automatic control of two important process variables. These lognormally distributed variables are the pachuca 1 sulphuric acid concentration and the ferric to ferrous ratio. The stochastic simulations show that automatic process control is justifiable in certain cases. Where the leaching strategy is relatively harsh, such as that in operation during January 1986, it is not possible to justify an automatic control system. Automatic control is, however, justifiable if a relatively mild leaching strategy is adopted. The stochastic and deterministic simulations represent two different approaches to uranium process modelling. This study has indicated the necessity for each approach to be applied in the correct context. It is contended that incorrect conclusions may have been drawn by other investigators in South Africa who failed to consider the two approaches separately

SELANSI: a toolbox for simulation of stochastic gene regulatory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Pájaro, Manuel; Otero-Muras, Irene; Vázquez, Carlos; Alonso, Antonio A

2018-03-01

Gene regulation is inherently stochastic. In many applications concerning Systems and Synthetic Biology such as the reverse engineering and the de novo design of genetic circuits, stochastic effects (yet potentially crucial) are often neglected due to the high computational cost of stochastic simulations. With advances in these fields there is an increasing need of tools providing accurate approximations of the stochastic dynamics of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) with reduced computational effort. This work presents SELANSI (SEmi-LAgrangian SImulation of GRNs), a software toolbox for the simulation of stochastic multidimensional gene regulatory networks. SELANSI exploits intrinsic structural properties of gene regulatory networks to accurately approximate the corresponding Chemical Master Equation with a partial integral differential equation that is solved by a semi-lagrangian method with high efficiency. Networks under consideration might involve multiple genes with self and cross regulations, in which genes can be regulated by different transcription factors. Moreover, the validity of the method is not restricted to a particular type of kinetics. The tool offers total flexibility regarding network topology, kinetics and parameterization, as well as simulation options. SELANSI runs under the MATLAB environment, and is available under GPLv3 license at https://sites.google.com/view/selansi. antonio@iim.csic.es. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Provably unbounded memory advantage in stochastic simulation using quantum mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Garner, Andrew J. P.; Liu, Qing; Thompson, Jayne; Vedral, Vlatko; Gu, mile

2017-10-01

Simulating the stochastic evolution of real quantities on a digital computer requires a trade-off between the precision to which these quantities are approximated, and the memory required to store them. The statistical accuracy of the simulation is thus generally limited by the internal memory available to the simulator. Here, using tools from computational mechanics, we show that quantum processors with a fixed finite memory can simulate stochastic processes of real variables to arbitrarily high precision. This demonstrates a provable, unbounded memory advantage that a quantum simulator can exhibit over its best possible classical counterpart.

STOCHSIMGPU: parallel stochastic simulation for the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 for MATLAB

KAUST Repository

Klingbeil, G.

2011-02-25

Motivation: The importance of stochasticity in biological systems is becoming increasingly recognized and the computational cost of biologically realistic stochastic simulations urgently requires development of efficient software. We present a new software tool STOCHSIMGPU that exploits graphics processing units (GPUs) for parallel stochastic simulations of biological/chemical reaction systems and show that significant gains in efficiency can be made. It is integrated into MATLAB and works with the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 (SBTOOLBOX2) for MATLAB. Results: The GPU-based parallel implementation of the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), the logarithmic direct method (LDM) and the next reaction method (NRM) is approximately 85 times faster than the sequential implementation of the NRM on a central processing unit (CPU). Using our software does not require any changes to the user\\'s models, since it acts as a direct replacement of the stochastic simulation software of the SBTOOLBOX2. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Provably unbounded memory advantage in stochastic simulation using quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garner, Andrew J P; Thompson, Jayne; Vedral, Vlatko; Gu, Mile; Liu, Qing

2017-01-01

Simulating the stochastic evolution of real quantities on a digital computer requires a trade-off between the precision to which these quantities are approximated, and the memory required to store them. The statistical accuracy of the simulation is thus generally limited by the internal memory available to the simulator. Here, using tools from computational mechanics, we show that quantum processors with a fixed finite memory can simulate stochastic processes of real variables to arbitrarily high precision. This demonstrates a provable, unbounded memory advantage that a quantum simulator can exhibit over its best possible classical counterpart. (paper)

Fat versus Thin Threading Approach on GPUs: Application to Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Reactions

KAUST Repository

Klingbeil, Guido; Erban, Radek; Giles, Mike; Maini, Philip K.

2012-01-01

We explore two different threading approaches on a graphics processing unit (GPU) exploiting two different characteristics of the current GPU architecture. The fat thread approach tries to minimize data access time by relying on shared memory and registers potentially sacrificing parallelism. The thin thread approach maximizes parallelism and tries to hide access latencies. We apply these two approaches to the parallel stochastic simulation of chemical reaction systems using the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) by Gillespie [14]. In these cases, the proposed thin thread approach shows comparable performance while eliminating the limitation of the reaction system's size. © 2006 IEEE.

Fat versus Thin Threading Approach on GPUs: Application to Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Reactions

KAUST Repository

Klingbeil, Guido

2012-02-01

We explore two different threading approaches on a graphics processing unit (GPU) exploiting two different characteristics of the current GPU architecture. The fat thread approach tries to minimize data access time by relying on shared memory and registers potentially sacrificing parallelism. The thin thread approach maximizes parallelism and tries to hide access latencies. We apply these two approaches to the parallel stochastic simulation of chemical reaction systems using the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) by Gillespie [14]. In these cases, the proposed thin thread approach shows comparable performance while eliminating the limitation of the reaction system\\'s size. © 2006 IEEE.

HSimulator: Hybrid Stochastic/Deterministic Simulation of Biochemical Reaction Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Marchetti

2017-01-01

Full Text Available HSimulator is a multithread simulator for mass-action biochemical reaction systems placed in a well-mixed environment. HSimulator provides optimized implementation of a set of widespread state-of-the-art stochastic, deterministic, and hybrid simulation strategies including the first publicly available implementation of the Hybrid Rejection-based Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (HRSSA. HRSSA, the fastest hybrid algorithm to date, allows for an efficient simulation of the models while ensuring the exact simulation of a subset of the reaction network modeling slow reactions. Benchmarks show that HSimulator is often considerably faster than the other considered simulators. The software, running on Java v6.0 or higher, offers a simulation GUI for modeling and visually exploring biological processes and a Javadoc-documented Java library to support the development of custom applications. HSimulator is released under the COSBI Shared Source license agreement (COSBI-SSLA.

Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS: software for stochastic modeling of biochemical networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elston Timothy C

2004-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. Results We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS for efficientlyand accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solvesthe appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. Conclusions We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.

A Multilevel Adaptive Reaction-splitting Simulation Method for Stochastic Reaction Networks

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro; Tempone, Raul; Vilanova, Pedro

2016-01-01

In this work, we present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo method for kinetic simulation of stochastic reaction networks characterized by having simultaneously fast and slow reaction channels. To produce efficient simulations, our method adaptively classifies the reactions channels into fast and slow channels. To this end, we first introduce a state-dependent quantity named level of activity of a reaction channel. Then, we propose a low-cost heuristic that allows us to adaptively split the set of reaction channels into two subsets characterized by either a high or a low level of activity. Based on a time-splitting technique, the increments associated with high-activity channels are simulated using the tau-leap method, while those associated with low-activity channels are simulated using an exact method. This path simulation technique is amenable for coupled path generation and a corresponding multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm. To estimate expected values of observables of the system at a prescribed final time, our method bounds the global computational error to be below a prescribed tolerance, TOL, within a given confidence level. This goal is achieved with a computational complexity of order O(TOL-2), the same as with a pathwise-exact method, but with a smaller constant. We also present a novel low-cost control variate technique based on the stochastic time change representation by Kurtz, showing its performance on a numerical example. We present two numerical examples extracted from the literature that show how the reaction-splitting method obtains substantial gains with respect to the standard stochastic simulation algorithm and the multilevel Monte Carlo approach by Anderson and Higham. © 2016 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

A Multilevel Adaptive Reaction-splitting Simulation Method for Stochastic Reaction Networks

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2016-07-07

In this work, we present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo method for kinetic simulation of stochastic reaction networks characterized by having simultaneously fast and slow reaction channels. To produce efficient simulations, our method adaptively classifies the reactions channels into fast and slow channels. To this end, we first introduce a state-dependent quantity named level of activity of a reaction channel. Then, we propose a low-cost heuristic that allows us to adaptively split the set of reaction channels into two subsets characterized by either a high or a low level of activity. Based on a time-splitting technique, the increments associated with high-activity channels are simulated using the tau-leap method, while those associated with low-activity channels are simulated using an exact method. This path simulation technique is amenable for coupled path generation and a corresponding multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm. To estimate expected values of observables of the system at a prescribed final time, our method bounds the global computational error to be below a prescribed tolerance, TOL, within a given confidence level. This goal is achieved with a computational complexity of order O(TOL-2), the same as with a pathwise-exact method, but with a smaller constant. We also present a novel low-cost control variate technique based on the stochastic time change representation by Kurtz, showing its performance on a numerical example. We present two numerical examples extracted from the literature that show how the reaction-splitting method obtains substantial gains with respect to the standard stochastic simulation algorithm and the multilevel Monte Carlo approach by Anderson and Higham. © 2016 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

GillesPy: A Python Package for Stochastic Model Building and Simulation

OpenAIRE

Abel, John H.; Drawert, Brian; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda R.

2016-01-01

GillesPy is an open-source Python package for model construction and simulation of stochastic biochemical systems. GillesPy consists of a Python framework for model building and an interface to the StochKit2 suite of efficient simulation algorithms based on the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithms (SSA). To enable intuitive model construction and seamless integration into the scientific Python stack, we present an easy to understand, action-oriented programming interface. Here, we descr...

Stochastic simulation of biological reactions, and its applications for studying actin polymerization.

Science.gov (United States)

Ichikawa, Kazuhisa; Suzuki, Takashi; Murata, Noboru

2010-11-30

Molecular events in biological cells occur in local subregions, where the molecules tend to be small in number. The cytoskeleton, which is important for both the structural changes of cells and their functions, is also a countable entity because of its long fibrous shape. To simulate the local environment using a computer, stochastic simulations should be run. We herein report a new method of stochastic simulation based on random walk and reaction by the collision of all molecules. The microscopic reaction rate P(r) is calculated from the macroscopic rate constant k. The formula involves only local parameters embedded for each molecule. The results of the stochastic simulations of simple second-order, polymerization, Michaelis-Menten-type and other reactions agreed quite well with those of deterministic simulations when the number of molecules was sufficiently large. An analysis of the theory indicated a relationship between variance and the number of molecules in the system, and results of multiple stochastic simulation runs confirmed this relationship. We simulated Ca²(+) dynamics in a cell by inward flow from a point on the cell surface and the polymerization of G-actin forming F-actin. Our results showed that this theory and method can be used to simulate spatially inhomogeneous events.

Stochastic simulation of biological reactions, and its applications for studying actin polymerization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Kazuhisa; Suzuki, Takashi; Murata, Noboru

2010-01-01

Molecular events in biological cells occur in local subregions, where the molecules tend to be small in number. The cytoskeleton, which is important for both the structural changes of cells and their functions, is also a countable entity because of its long fibrous shape. To simulate the local environment using a computer, stochastic simulations should be run. We herein report a new method of stochastic simulation based on random walk and reaction by the collision of all molecules. The microscopic reaction rate P r is calculated from the macroscopic rate constant k. The formula involves only local parameters embedded for each molecule. The results of the stochastic simulations of simple second-order, polymerization, Michaelis–Menten-type and other reactions agreed quite well with those of deterministic simulations when the number of molecules was sufficiently large. An analysis of the theory indicated a relationship between variance and the number of molecules in the system, and results of multiple stochastic simulation runs confirmed this relationship. We simulated Ca 2+ dynamics in a cell by inward flow from a point on the cell surface and the polymerization of G-actin forming F-actin. Our results showed that this theory and method can be used to simulate spatially inhomogeneous events

STOCHSIMGPU: parallel stochastic simulation for the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 for MATLAB.

Science.gov (United States)

Klingbeil, Guido; Erban, Radek; Giles, Mike; Maini, Philip K

2011-04-15

The importance of stochasticity in biological systems is becoming increasingly recognized and the computational cost of biologically realistic stochastic simulations urgently requires development of efficient software. We present a new software tool STOCHSIMGPU that exploits graphics processing units (GPUs) for parallel stochastic simulations of biological/chemical reaction systems and show that significant gains in efficiency can be made. It is integrated into MATLAB and works with the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 (SBTOOLBOX2) for MATLAB. The GPU-based parallel implementation of the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), the logarithmic direct method (LDM) and the next reaction method (NRM) is approximately 85 times faster than the sequential implementation of the NRM on a central processing unit (CPU). Using our software does not require any changes to the user's models, since it acts as a direct replacement of the stochastic simulation software of the SBTOOLBOX2. The software is open source under the GPL v3 and available at http://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/cmb/STOCHSIMGPU. The web site also contains supplementary information. klingbeil@maths.ox.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Introduction to Stochastic Simulations for Chemical and Physical Processes: Principles and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Charles J.

2017-01-01

An introduction to digital stochastic simulations for modeling a variety of physical and chemical processes is presented. Despite the importance of stochastic simulations in chemistry, the prevalence of turn-key software solutions can impose a layer of abstraction between the user and the underlying approach obscuring the methodology being…

Stochastic Simulation of Biomolecular Reaction Networks Using the Biomolecular Network Simulator Software

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Frazier, John; Chusak, Yaroslav; Foy, Brent

2008-01-01

.... The software uses either exact or approximate stochastic simulation algorithms for generating Monte Carlo trajectories that describe the time evolution of the behavior of biomolecular reaction networks...

Efficient rejection-based simulation of biochemical reactions with stochastic noise and delays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thanh, Vo Hong, E-mail: vo@cosbi.eu [The Microsoft Research - University of Trento Centre for Computational and Systems Biology, Piazza Manifattura 1, Rovereto 38068 (Italy); Priami, Corrado, E-mail: priami@cosbi.eu [The Microsoft Research - University of Trento Centre for Computational and Systems Biology, Piazza Manifattura 1, Rovereto 38068 (Italy); Department of Mathematics, University of Trento (Italy); Zunino, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.zunino@unitn.it [Department of Mathematics, University of Trento (Italy)

2014-10-07

We propose a new exact stochastic rejection-based simulation algorithm for biochemical reactions and extend it to systems with delays. Our algorithm accelerates the simulation by pre-computing reaction propensity bounds to select the next reaction to perform. Exploiting such bounds, we are able to avoid recomputing propensities every time a (delayed) reaction is initiated or finished, as is typically necessary in standard approaches. Propensity updates in our approach are still performed, but only infrequently and limited for a small number of reactions, saving computation time and without sacrificing exactness. We evaluate the performance improvement of our algorithm by experimenting with concrete biological models.

Stochastic simulation of enzyme-catalyzed reactions with disparate timescales.

Science.gov (United States)

Barik, Debashis; Paul, Mark R; Baumann, William T; Cao, Yang; Tyson, John J

2008-10-01

Many physiological characteristics of living cells are regulated by protein interaction networks. Because the total numbers of these protein species can be small, molecular noise can have significant effects on the dynamical properties of a regulatory network. Computing these stochastic effects is made difficult by the large timescale separations typical of protein interactions (e.g., complex formation may occur in fractions of a second, whereas catalytic conversions may take minutes). Exact stochastic simulation may be very inefficient under these circumstances, and methods for speeding up the simulation without sacrificing accuracy have been widely studied. We show that the "total quasi-steady-state approximation" for enzyme-catalyzed reactions provides a useful framework for efficient and accurate stochastic simulations. The method is applied to three examples: a simple enzyme-catalyzed reaction where enzyme and substrate have comparable abundances, a Goldbeter-Koshland switch, where a kinase and phosphatase regulate the phosphorylation state of a common substrate, and coupled Goldbeter-Koshland switches that exhibit bistability. Simulations based on the total quasi-steady-state approximation accurately capture the steady-state probability distributions of all components of these reaction networks. In many respects, the approximation also faithfully reproduces time-dependent aspects of the fluctuations. The method is accurate even under conditions of poor timescale separation.

A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Solar radiation data for European cities follow the Extreme Value or Weibull distribution. ► Simulation model for the sizing of SAPV systems based on energy balance and stochastic analysis. ► Simulation of PV Generator-Loads-Battery Storage System performance for all months. ► Minimum peak power and battery capacity required for reliable SAPV sizing for various European cities. ► Peak power and battery capacity reduced by more than 30% for operation 95% success rate. -- Abstract: The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (P m ) and larger battery storage capacity (C L ). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed P m and C L for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum P m and C L depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to

Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siegel, A.I.; Bartter, W.D.; Wolf, J.J.; Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

1984-01-01

A stochastic computer model for simulating the actions and behavior of nuclear power plant maintenance personnel is described. The model considers personnel, environmental, and motivational variables to yield predictions of maintenance performance quality and time to perform. The mode has been fully developed and sensitivity tested. Additional evaluation of the model is now taking place

Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Teng

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.

GillesPy: A Python Package for Stochastic Model Building and Simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Abel, John H; Drawert, Brian; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda R

2016-09-01

GillesPy is an open-source Python package for model construction and simulation of stochastic biochemical systems. GillesPy consists of a Python framework for model building and an interface to the StochKit2 suite of efficient simulation algorithms based on the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithms (SSA). To enable intuitive model construction and seamless integration into the scientific Python stack, we present an easy to understand, action-oriented programming interface. Here, we describe the components of this package and provide a detailed example relevant to the computational biology community.

STOCHSIMGPU: parallel stochastic simulation for the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 for MATLAB

KAUST Repository

Klingbeil, G.; Erban, R.; Giles, M.; Maini, P. K.

2011-01-01

Motivation: The importance of stochasticity in biological systems is becoming increasingly recognized and the computational cost of biologically realistic stochastic simulations urgently requires development of efficient software. We present a new

A higher-order numerical framework for stochastic simulation of chemical reaction systems.

KAUST Repository

Székely, Tamás

2012-07-15

BACKGROUND: In this paper, we present a framework for improving the accuracy of fixed-step methods for Monte Carlo simulation of discrete stochastic chemical kinetics. Stochasticity is ubiquitous in many areas of cell biology, for example in gene regulation, biochemical cascades and cell-cell interaction. However most discrete stochastic simulation techniques are slow. We apply Richardson extrapolation to the moments of three fixed-step methods, the Euler, midpoint and θ-trapezoidal τ-leap methods, to demonstrate the power of stochastic extrapolation. The extrapolation framework can increase the order of convergence of any fixed-step discrete stochastic solver and is very easy to implement; the only condition for its use is knowledge of the appropriate terms of the global error expansion of the solver in terms of its stepsize. In practical terms, a higher-order method with a larger stepsize can achieve the same level of accuracy as a lower-order method with a smaller one, potentially reducing the computational time of the system. RESULTS: By obtaining a global error expansion for a general weak first-order method, we prove that extrapolation can increase the weak order of convergence for the moments of the Euler and the midpoint τ-leap methods, from one to two. This is supported by numerical simulations of several chemical systems of biological importance using the Euler, midpoint and θ-trapezoidal τ-leap methods. In almost all cases, extrapolation results in an improvement of accuracy. As in the case of ordinary and stochastic differential equations, extrapolation can be repeated to obtain even higher-order approximations. CONCLUSIONS: Extrapolation is a general framework for increasing the order of accuracy of any fixed-step stochastic solver. This enables the simulation of complicated systems in less time, allowing for more realistic biochemical problems to be solved.

A low-bias simulation scheme for the SABR stochastic volatility model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Chen (Bin); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis); J.A.M. van der Weide

2012-01-01

htmlabstractThe Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho Stochastic Volatility (SABR-SV) model is widely used in the financial industry for the pricing of fixed income instruments. In this paper we develop an lowbias simulation scheme for the SABR-SV model, which deals efficiently with (undesired)

Coarse-graining stochastic biochemical networks: adiabaticity and fast simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nemenman, Ilya [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hengartner, Nick [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01

We propose a universal approach for analysis and fast simulations of stiff stochastic biochemical kinetics networks, which rests on elimination of fast chemical species without a loss of information about mesoscoplc, non-Poissonian fluctuations of the slow ones. Our approach, which is similar to the Born-Oppenhelmer approximation in quantum mechanics, follows from the stochastic path Integral representation of the cumulant generating function of reaction events. In applications with a small number of chemIcal reactions, It produces analytical expressions for cumulants of chemical fluxes between the slow variables. This allows for a low-dimensional, Interpretable representation and can be used for coarse-grained numerical simulation schemes with a small computational complexity and yet high accuracy. As an example, we derive the coarse-grained description for a chain of biochemical reactions, and show that the coarse-grained and the microscopic simulations are in an agreement, but the coarse-gralned simulations are three orders of magnitude faster.

Meta-stochastic simulation of biochemical models for systems and synthetic biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanassy, Daven; Widera, Paweł; Krasnogor, Natalio

2015-01-16

Stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) are used to trace realistic trajectories of biochemical systems at low species concentrations. As the complexity of modeled biosystems increases, it is important to select the best performing SSA. Numerous improvements to SSAs have been introduced but they each only tend to apply to a certain class of models. This makes it difficult for a systems or synthetic biologist to decide which algorithm to employ when confronted with a new model that requires simulation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to determine which algorithm is best suited to simulate a particular model and that this can be predicted a priori to algorithm execution. We present a Web based tool ssapredict that allows scientists to upload a biochemical model and obtain a prediction of the best performing SSA. Furthermore, ssapredict gives the user the option to download our high performance simulator ngss preconfigured to perform the simulation of the queried biochemical model with the predicted fastest algorithm as the simulation engine. The ssapredict Web application is available at http://ssapredict.ico2s.org. It is free software and its source code is distributed under the terms of the GNU Affero General Public License.

HYDRASTAR - a code for stochastic simulation of groundwater flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norman, S.

1992-05-01

The computer code HYDRASTAR was developed as a tool for groundwater flow and transport simulations in the SKB 91 safety analysis project. Its conceptual ideas can be traced back to a report by Shlomo Neuman in 1988, see the reference section. The main idea of the code is the treatment of the rock as a stochastic continuum which separates it from the deterministic methods previously employed by SKB and also from the discrete fracture models. The current report is a comprehensive description of HYDRASTAR including such topics as regularization or upscaling of a hydraulic conductivity field, unconditional and conditional simulation of stochastic processes, numerical solvers for the hydrology and streamline equations and finally some proposals for future developments

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, Andrew; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos

2016-01-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the “fast” reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Andrew; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos

2016-12-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the "fast" reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duncan, Andrew, E-mail: a.duncan@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics, Imperial College, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Erban, Radek, E-mail: erban@maths.ox.ac.uk [Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Zygalakis, Konstantinos, E-mail: k.zygalakis@ed.ac.uk [School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FD (United Kingdom)

2016-12-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the “fast” reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Simulated Stochastic Approximation Annealing for Global Optimization With a Square-Root Cooling Schedule

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2014-04-03

Simulated annealing has been widely used in the solution of optimization problems. As known by many researchers, the global optima cannot be guaranteed to be located by simulated annealing unless a logarithmic cooling schedule is used. However, the logarithmic cooling schedule is so slow that no one can afford to use this much CPU time. This article proposes a new stochastic optimization algorithm, the so-called simulated stochastic approximation annealing algorithm, which is a combination of simulated annealing and the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. Under the framework of stochastic approximation, it is shown that the new algorithm can work with a cooling schedule in which the temperature can decrease much faster than in the logarithmic cooling schedule, for example, a square-root cooling schedule, while guaranteeing the global optima to be reached when the temperature tends to zero. The new algorithm has been tested on a few benchmark optimization problems, including feed-forward neural network training and protein-folding. The numerical results indicate that the new algorithm can significantly outperform simulated annealing and other competitors. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Exact and Approximate Stochastic Simulation of Intracellular Calcium Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Wieder

2011-01-01

pathways. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an overview of the aforementioned simulation approaches and their mutual relationships in the spectrum ranging from stochastic to deterministic algorithms.

Computing Optimal Stochastic Portfolio Execution Strategies: A Parametric Approach Using Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Moazeni, Somayeh; Coleman, Thomas F.; Li, Yuying

2010-09-01

Computing optimal stochastic portfolio execution strategies under appropriate risk consideration presents great computational challenge. We investigate a parametric approach for computing optimal stochastic strategies using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach allows reduction in computational complexity by computing coefficients for a parametric representation of a stochastic dynamic strategy based on static optimization. Using this technique, constraints can be similarly handled using appropriate penalty functions. We illustrate the proposed approach to minimize the expected execution cost and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).

D-leaping: Accelerating stochastic simulation algorithms for reactions with delays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayati, Basil; Chatelain, Philippe; Koumoutsakos, Petros

2009-01-01

We propose a novel, accelerated algorithm for the approximate stochastic simulation of biochemical systems with delays. The present work extends existing accelerated algorithms by distributing, in a time adaptive fashion, the delayed reactions so as to minimize the computational effort while preserving their accuracy. The accuracy of the present algorithm is assessed by comparing its results to those of the corresponding delay differential equations for a representative biochemical system. In addition, the fluctuations produced from the present algorithm are comparable to those from an exact stochastic simulation with delays. The algorithm is used to simulate biochemical systems that model oscillatory gene expression. The results indicate that the present algorithm is competitive with existing works for several benchmark problems while it is orders of magnitude faster for certain systems of biochemical reactions.

A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda J.S. Allen

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential equations. Some well-known examples are used for illustration such as an SIR epidemic model and a host-vector malaria model. Analytical methods for approximating the probability of a disease outbreak are also discussed. Keywords: Branching process, Continuous-time Markov chain, Minor outbreak, Stochastic differential equation, 2000 MSC: 60H10, 60J28, 92D30

Testing the new stochastic neutronic code ANET in simulating safety important parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xenofontos, T.; Delipei, G.-K.; Savva, P.; Varvayanni, M.; Maillard, J.; Silva, J.; Catsaros, N.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • ANET is a new neutronics stochastic code. • Criticality calculations in both subcritical and critical nuclear systems of conventional design were conducted. • Simulations of thermal, lower epithermal and fast neutron fluence rates were performed. • Axial fission rate distributions in standard and MOX fuel pins were computed. - Abstract: ANET (Advanced Neutronics with Evolution and Thermal hydraulic feedback) is an under development Monte Carlo code for simulating both GEN II/III reactors as well as innovative nuclear reactor designs, based on the high energy physics code GEANT3.21 of CERN. ANET is built through continuous GEANT3.21 applicability amplifications, comprising the simulation of particles’ transport and interaction in low energy along with the accessibility of user-provided libraries and tracking algorithms for energies below 20 MeV, as well as the simulation of elastic and inelastic collision, capture and fission. Successive testing applications performed throughout the ANET development have been utilized to verify the new code capabilities. In this context the ANET reliability in simulating certain reactor parameters important to safety is here examined. More specifically the reactor criticality as well as the neutron fluence and fission rates are benchmarked and validated. The Portuguese Research Reactor (RPI) after its conversion to low enrichment in U-235 and the OECD/NEA VENUS-2 MOX international benchmark were considered appropriate for the present study, the former providing criticality and neutron flux data and the latter reaction rates. Concerning criticality benchmarking, the subcritical, Training Nuclear Reactor of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (TNR-AUTh) was also analyzed. The obtained results are compared with experimental data from the critical infrastructures and with computations performed by two different, well established stochastic neutronics codes, i.e. TRIPOLI-4.8 and MCNP5. Satisfactory agreement

Research on neutron noise analysis stochastic simulation method for α calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhong Bin; Shen Huayun; She Ruogu; Zhu Shengdong; Xiao Gang

2014-01-01

The prompt decay constant α has significant application on the physical design and safety analysis in nuclear facilities. To overcome the difficulty of a value calculation with Monte-Carlo method, and improve the precision, a new method based on the neutron noise analysis technology was presented. This method employs the stochastic simulation and the theory of neutron noise analysis technology. Firstly, the evolution of stochastic neutron was simulated by discrete-events Monte-Carlo method based on the theory of generalized Semi-Markov process, then the neutron noise in detectors was solved from neutron signal. Secondly, the neutron noise analysis methods such as Rossia method, Feynman-α method, zero-probability method, and cross-correlation method were used to calculate a value. All of the parameters used in neutron noise analysis method were calculated based on auto-adaptive arithmetic. The a value from these methods accords with each other, the largest relative deviation is 7.9%, which proves the feasibility of a calculation method based on neutron noise analysis stochastic simulation. (authors)

A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing Zhao

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

Simulation of the stochastic wave loads using a physical modeling approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, W.F.; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

2013-01-01

In analyzing stochastic dynamic systems, analysis of the system uncertainty due to randomness in the loads plays a crucial role. Typically time series of the stochastic loads are simulated using traditional random phase method. This approach combined with fast Fourier transform algorithm makes...... reliability or its uncertainty. Moreover applicability of the probability density evolution method on engineering problems faces critical difficulties when the system embeds too many random variables. Hence it is useful to devise a method which can make realization of the stochastic load processes with low...

Dimension reduction of Karhunen-Loeve expansion for simulation of stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zixin; Peng, Yongbo

2017-11-01

Conventional Karhunen-Loeve expansions for simulation of stochastic processes often encounter the challenge of dealing with hundreds of random variables. For breaking through the barrier, a random function embedded Karhunen-Loeve expansion method is proposed in this paper. The updated scheme has a similar form to the conventional Karhunen-Loeve expansion, both involving a summation of a series of deterministic orthonormal basis and uncorrelated random variables. While the difference from the updated scheme lies in the dimension reduction of Karhunen-Loeve expansion through introducing random functions as a conditional constraint upon uncorrelated random variables. The random function is expressed as a single-elementary-random-variable orthogonal function in polynomial format (non-Gaussian variables) or trigonometric format (non-Gaussian and Gaussian variables). For illustrative purposes, the simulation of seismic ground motion is carried out using the updated scheme. Numerical investigations reveal that the Karhunen-Loeve expansion with random functions could gain desirable simulation results in case of a moderate sample number, except the Hermite polynomials and the Laguerre polynomials. It has the sound applicability and efficiency in simulation of stochastic processes. Besides, the updated scheme has the benefit of integrating with probability density evolution method, readily for the stochastic analysis of nonlinear structures.

Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

2012-01-01

it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

An adaptive algorithm for simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferm, Lars; Hellander, Andreas; Loetstedt, Per

2010-01-01

We propose an adaptive hybrid method suitable for stochastic simulation of diffusion dominated reaction-diffusion processes. For such systems, simulation of the diffusion requires the predominant part of the computing time. In order to reduce the computational work, the diffusion in parts of the domain is treated macroscopically, in other parts with the tau-leap method and in the remaining parts with Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) as implemented in the next subvolume method (NSM). The chemical reactions are handled by SSA everywhere in the computational domain. A trajectory of the process is advanced in time by an operator splitting technique and the timesteps are chosen adaptively. The spatial adaptation is based on estimates of the errors in the tau-leap method and the macroscopic diffusion. The accuracy and efficiency of the method are demonstrated in examples from molecular biology where the domain is discretized by unstructured meshes.

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix Composite

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Noel; Bednarcyk, Brett; Pineda, Evan; Arnold, Steven; Mital, Subodh; Murthy, Pappu

2015-01-01

Reported here is a coupling of two NASA developed codes: CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/ Generalized Method of Cells) composite material analysis code. The resulting code is called FEAMAC/CARES and is constructed as an Abaqus finite element analysis UMAT (user defined material). Here we describe the FEAMAC/CARES code and an example problem (taken from the open literature) of a laminated CMC in off-axis loading is shown. FEAMAC/CARES performs stochastic-strength-based damage simulation response of a CMC under multiaxial loading using elastic stiffness reduction of the failed elements.

A constrained approach to multiscale stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems

KAUST Repository

Cotter, Simon L.

2011-01-01

Stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions is often computationally intensive, especially if a chemical system contains reactions occurring on different time scales. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale methodology suitable to address this problem, assuming that the evolution of the slow species in the system is well approximated by a Langevin process. It is based on the conditional stochastic simulation algorithm (CSSA) which samples from the conditional distribution of the suitably defined fast variables, given values for the slow variables. In the constrained multiscale algorithm (CMA) a single realization of the CSSA is then used for each value of the slow variable to approximate the effective drift and diffusion terms, in a similar manner to the constrained mean-force computations in other applications such as molecular dynamics. We then show how using the ensuing Fokker-Planck equation approximation, we can in turn approximate average switching times in stochastic chemical systems. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.

2–stage stochastic Runge–Kutta for stochastic delay differential equations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosli, Norhayati; Jusoh Awang, Rahimah [Faculty of Industrial Science and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300, Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Yeak, S. H. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

2015-05-15

This paper proposes a newly developed one-step derivative-free method, that is 2-stage stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK2) to approximate the solution of stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) with a constant time lag, r > 0. General formulation of stochastic Runge-Kutta for SDDEs is introduced and Stratonovich Taylor series expansion for numerical solution of SRK2 is presented. Local truncation error of SRK2 is measured by comparing the Stratonovich Taylor expansion of the exact solution with the computed solution. Numerical experiment is performed to assure the validity of the method in simulating the strong solution of SDDEs.

Software Tools for Stochastic Simulations of Turbulence

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-28

40] R. D. Richtmyer. Taylor instability in shock acceleration of compressible fluids. Comm. pure Appl. Math , 13(297-319), 1960. 76 [41] R. Samulyak, J...Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 Pure sciences, Applied sciences, Front tracking, Large eddy simulations, Mesh convergence, Stochastic convergence, Weak...Illustration of a component grid with a front crossing solution stencil. Cells in the pure yellow and pure blue regions are assigned different components

Deterministic modelling and stochastic simulation of biochemical pathways using MATLAB.

Science.gov (United States)

Ullah, M; Schmidt, H; Cho, K H; Wolkenhauer, O

2006-03-01

The analysis of complex biochemical networks is conducted in two popular conceptual frameworks for modelling. The deterministic approach requires the solution of ordinary differential equations (ODEs, reaction rate equations) with concentrations as continuous state variables. The stochastic approach involves the simulation of differential-difference equations (chemical master equations, CMEs) with probabilities as variables. This is to generate counts of molecules for chemical species as realisations of random variables drawn from the probability distribution described by the CMEs. Although there are numerous tools available, many of them free, the modelling and simulation environment MATLAB is widely used in the physical and engineering sciences. We describe a collection of MATLAB functions to construct and solve ODEs for deterministic simulation and to implement realisations of CMEs for stochastic simulation using advanced MATLAB coding (Release 14). The program was successfully applied to pathway models from the literature for both cases. The results were compared to implementations using alternative tools for dynamic modelling and simulation of biochemical networks. The aim is to provide a concise set of MATLAB functions that encourage the experimentation with systems biology models. All the script files are available from www.sbi.uni-rostock.de/ publications_matlab-paper.html.

Stochastic prey arrivals and crab spider giving-up times: simulations of spider performance using two simple "rules of thumb".

Science.gov (United States)

Kareiva, Peter; Morse, Douglass H; Eccleston, Jill

1989-03-01

We compared the patch-choice performances of an ambush predator, the crab spider Misumena vatia (Thomisidae) hunting on common milkweed Asclepias syriaca (Asclepiadaceae) umbles, with two stochastic rule-of-thumb simulation models: one that employed a threshold giving-up time and one that assumed a fixed probability of moving. Adult female Misumena were placed on milkweed plants with three umbels, each with markedly different numbers of flower-seeking prey. Using a variety of visitation regimes derived from observed visitation patterns of insect prey, we found that decreases in among-umbel variance in visitation rates or increases in overall mean visitation rates reduced the "clarity of the optimum" (the difference in the yield obtained as foraging behavior changes), both locally and globally. Yield profiles from both models were extremely flat or jagged over a wide range of prey visitation regimes; thus, differences between optimal and "next-best" strategies differed only modestly over large parts of the "foraging landscape". Although optimal yields from fixed probability simulations were one-third to one-half those obtained from threshold simulations, spiders appear to depart umbels in accordance with the fixed probability rule.

Explicit calibration and simulation of stochastic fields by low-order ARMA processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krenk, Steen

2011-01-01

A simple framework for autoregressive simulation of stochastic fields is presented. The autoregressive format leads to a simple exponential correlation structure in the time-dimension. In the case of scalar processes a more detailed correlation structure can be obtained by adding memory...... to the process via an extension to autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. The ARMA format incorporates a more detailed correlation structure by including previous values of the simulated process. Alternatively, a more detailed correlation structure can be obtained by including additional 'state......-space' variables in the simulation. For a scalar process this would imply an increase of the dimension of the process to be simulated. In the case of a stochastic field the correlation in the time-dimension is represented, although indirectly, in the simultaneous spatial correlation. The model with the shortest...

Qualitative and Quantitative Integrated Modeling for Stochastic Simulation and Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Yan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The simulation and optimization of an actual physics system are usually constructed based on the stochastic models, which have both qualitative and quantitative characteristics inherently. Most modeling specifications and frameworks find it difficult to describe the qualitative model directly. In order to deal with the expert knowledge, uncertain reasoning, and other qualitative information, a qualitative and quantitative combined modeling specification was proposed based on a hierarchical model structure framework. The new modeling approach is based on a hierarchical model structure which includes the meta-meta model, the meta-model and the high-level model. A description logic system is defined for formal definition and verification of the new modeling specification. A stochastic defense simulation was developed to illustrate how to model the system and optimize the result. The result shows that the proposed method can describe the complex system more comprehensively, and the survival probability of the target is higher by introducing qualitative models into quantitative simulation.

Stochastic Simulation Using @ Risk for Dairy Business Investment Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting fram...

The two-regime method for optimizing stochastic reaction-diffusion simulations

KAUST Repository

Flegg, M. B.; Chapman, S. J.; Erban, R.

2011-01-01

Spatial organization and noise play an important role in molecular systems biology. In recent years, a number of software packages have been developed for stochastic spatio-temporal simulation, ranging from detailed molecular-based approaches

MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Huseyin Atakan

2016-08-01

This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

Stochastic simulation of karst conduit networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Dowd, Peter A.; Xu, Chaoshui; Durán-Valsero, Juan José

2012-01-01

Karst aquifers have very high spatial heterogeneity. Essentially, they comprise a system of pipes (i.e., the network of conduits) superimposed on rock porosity and on a network of stratigraphic surfaces and fractures. This heterogeneity strongly influences the hydraulic behavior of the karst and it must be reproduced in any realistic numerical model of the karst system that is used as input to flow and transport modeling. However, the directly observed karst conduits are only a small part of the complete karst conduit system and knowledge of the complete conduit geometry and topology remains spatially limited and uncertain. Thus, there is a special interest in the stochastic simulation of networks of conduits that can be combined with fracture and rock porosity models to provide a realistic numerical model of the karst system. Furthermore, the simulated model may be of interest per se and other uses could be envisaged. The purpose of this paper is to present an efficient method for conditional and non-conditional stochastic simulation of karst conduit networks. The method comprises two stages: generation of conduit geometry and generation of topology. The approach adopted is a combination of a resampling method for generating conduit geometries from templates and a modified diffusion-limited aggregation method for generating the network topology. The authors show that the 3D karst conduit networks generated by the proposed method are statistically similar to observed karst conduit networks or to a hypothesized network model. The statistical similarity is in the sense of reproducing the tortuosity index of conduits, the fractal dimension of the network, the direction rose of directions, the Z-histogram and Ripley's K-function of the bifurcation points (which differs from a random allocation of those bifurcation points). The proposed method (1) is very flexible, (2) incorporates any experimental data (conditioning information) and (3) can easily be modified when

Stochastic simulation using @Risk for dairy business investment decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bewley, J.D.; Boehlje, M.D.; Gray, A.W.; Hogeveen, H.; Kenyon, S.J.; Eicher, S.D.; Schutz, M.M.

2010-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm

An efficient parallel stochastic simulation method for analysis of nonviral gene delivery systems

KAUST Repository

Kuwahara, Hiroyuki

2011-01-01

Gene therapy has a great potential to become an effective treatment for a wide variety of diseases. One of the main challenges to make gene therapy practical in clinical settings is the development of efficient and safe mechanisms to deliver foreign DNA molecules into the nucleus of target cells. Several computational and experimental studies have shown that the design process of synthetic gene transfer vectors can be greatly enhanced by computational modeling and simulation. This paper proposes a novel, effective parallelization of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) for pharmacokinetic models that characterize the rate-limiting, multi-step processes of intracellular gene delivery. While efficient parallelizations of the SSA are still an open problem in a general setting, the proposed parallel simulation method is able to substantially accelerate the next reaction selection scheme and the reaction update scheme in the SSA by exploiting and decomposing the structures of stochastic gene delivery models. This, thus, makes computationally intensive analysis such as parameter optimizations and gene dosage control for specific cell types, gene vectors, and transgene expression stability substantially more practical than that could otherwise be with the standard SSA. Here, we translated the nonviral gene delivery model based on mass-action kinetics by Varga et al. [Molecular Therapy, 4(5), 2001] into a more realistic model that captures intracellular fluctuations based on stochastic chemical kinetics, and as a case study we applied our parallel simulation to this stochastic model. Our results show that our simulation method is able to increase the efficiency of statistical analysis by at least 50% in various settings. © 2011 ACM.

Analytical vs. Simulation Solution Techniques for Pulse Problems in Non-linear Stochastic Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.

Advantages and disadvantages of available analytical and simulation techniques for pulse problems in non-linear stochastic dynamics are discussed. First, random pulse problems, both those which do and do not lead to Markov theory, are presented. Next, the analytical and analytically-numerical tec......Advantages and disadvantages of available analytical and simulation techniques for pulse problems in non-linear stochastic dynamics are discussed. First, random pulse problems, both those which do and do not lead to Markov theory, are presented. Next, the analytical and analytically...

The two-regime method for optimizing stochastic reaction-diffusion simulations

KAUST Repository

Flegg, M. B.

2011-10-19

Spatial organization and noise play an important role in molecular systems biology. In recent years, a number of software packages have been developed for stochastic spatio-temporal simulation, ranging from detailed molecular-based approaches to less detailed compartment-based simulations. Compartment-based approaches yield quick and accurate mesoscopic results, but lack the level of detail that is characteristic of the computationally intensive molecular-based models. Often microscopic detail is only required in a small region (e.g. close to the cell membrane). Currently, the best way to achieve microscopic detail is to use a resource-intensive simulation over the whole domain. We develop the two-regime method (TRM) in which a molecular-based algorithm is used where desired and a compartment-based approach is used elsewhere. We present easy-to-implement coupling conditions which ensure that the TRM results have the same accuracy as a detailed molecular-based model in the whole simulation domain. Therefore, the TRM combines strengths of previously developed stochastic reaction-diffusion software to efficiently explore the behaviour of biological models. Illustrative examples and the mathematical justification of the TRM are also presented.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A. (Edward A.)

2002-01-01

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrence results are used to validate finite element predictions.

Experiences using DAKOTA stochastic expansion methods in computational simulations.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Templeton, Jeremy Alan; Ruthruff, Joseph R.

2012-01-01

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods bring rigorous statistical connections to the analysis of computational and experiment data, and provide a basis for probabilistically assessing margins associated with safety and reliability. The DAKOTA toolkit developed at Sandia National Laboratories implements a number of UQ methods, which are being increasingly adopted by modeling and simulation teams to facilitate these analyses. This report disseminates results as to the performance of DAKOTA's stochastic expansion methods for UQ on a representative application. Our results provide a number of insights that may be of interest to future users of these methods, including the behavior of the methods in estimating responses at varying probability levels, and the expansion levels for the methodologies that may be needed to achieve convergence.

Stochastic simulations of calcium contents in sugarcane area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gener T. Pereira

2015-08-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to quantify and to map the spatial distribution and uncertainty of soil calcium (Ca content in a sugarcane area by sequential Gaussian and simulated-annealing simulation methods. The study was conducted in the municipality of Guariba, northeast of the São Paulo state. A sampling grid with 206 points separated by a distance of 50 m was established, totaling approximately 42 ha. The calcium contents were evaluated in layer of 0-0.20 m. Techniques of geostatistical estimation, ordinary kriging and stochastic simulations were used. The technique of ordinary kriging does not reproduce satisfactorily the global statistics of the Ca contents. The use of simulation techniques allows reproducing the spatial variability pattern of Ca contents. The techniques of sequential Gaussian simulation and simulated annealing showed significant variations in the contents of Ca in the small scale.

Error performance analysis in K-tier uplink cellular networks using a stochastic geometric approach

KAUST Repository

Afify, Laila H.

2015-09-14

In this work, we develop an analytical paradigm to analyze the average symbol error probability (ASEP) performance of uplink traffic in a multi-tier cellular network. The analysis is based on the recently developed Equivalent-in-Distribution approach that utilizes stochastic geometric tools to account for the network geometry in the performance characterization. Different from the other stochastic geometry models adopted in the literature, the developed analysis accounts for important communication system parameters and goes beyond signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio characterization. That is, the presented model accounts for the modulation scheme, constellation type, and signal recovery techniques to model the ASEP. To this end, we derive single integral expressions for the ASEP for different modulation schemes due to aggregate network interference. Finally, all theoretical findings of the paper are verified via Monte Carlo simulations.

Fast stochastic simulation of biochemical reaction systems by alternative formulations of the chemical Langevin equation

KAUST Repository

Mélykúti, Bence; Burrage, Kevin; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.

2010-01-01

The Chemical Langevin Equation (CLE), which is a stochastic differential equation driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, acts as a bridge between the discrete stochastic simulation algorithm and the deterministic reaction rate equation when

Stochastic Simulation Service: Bridging the Gap between the Computational Expert and the Biologist.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian Drawert

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We present StochSS: Stochastic Simulation as a Service, an integrated development environment for modeling and simulation of both deterministic and discrete stochastic biochemical systems in up to three dimensions. An easy to use graphical user interface enables researchers to quickly develop and simulate a biological model on a desktop or laptop, which can then be expanded to incorporate increasing levels of complexity. StochSS features state-of-the-art simulation engines. As the demand for computational power increases, StochSS can seamlessly scale computing resources in the cloud. In addition, StochSS can be deployed as a multi-user software environment where collaborators share computational resources and exchange models via a public model repository. We demonstrate the capabilities and ease of use of StochSS with an example of model development and simulation at increasing levels of complexity.

Simulation of Stochastic Processes by Coupled ODE-PDE

Science.gov (United States)

Zak, Michail

2008-01-01

A document discusses the emergence of randomness in solutions of coupled, fully deterministic ODE-PDE (ordinary differential equations-partial differential equations) due to failure of the Lipschitz condition as a new phenomenon. It is possible to exploit the special properties of ordinary differential equations (represented by an arbitrarily chosen, dynamical system) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equations (used to describe the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of joint probability distribution) in order to simulate stochastic processes with the proscribed probability distributions. The important advantage of the proposed approach is that the simulation does not require a random-number generator.

The time dependent propensity function for acceleration of spatial stochastic simulation of reaction–diffusion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu, Jin; Wu, Sheng; Li, Hong; Petzold, Linda R.

2014-01-01

The inhomogeneous stochastic simulation algorithm (ISSA) is a fundamental method for spatial stochastic simulation. However, when diffusion events occur more frequently than reaction events, simulating the diffusion events by ISSA is quite costly. To reduce this cost, we propose to use the time dependent propensity function in each step. In this way we can avoid simulating individual diffusion events, and use the time interval between two adjacent reaction events as the simulation stepsize. We demonstrate that the new algorithm can achieve orders of magnitude efficiency gains over widely-used exact algorithms, scales well with increasing grid resolution, and maintains a high level of accuracy

Hybrid Multilevel Monte Carlo Simulation of Stochastic Reaction Networks

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2015-01-01

even more, we want to achieve this objective with near optimal computational work. We first introduce a hybrid path-simulation scheme based on the well-known stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA)[3] and the tau-leap method [2]. Then, we introduce a Multilevel Monte Carlo strategy that allows us to achieve a computational complexity of order O(T OL−2), this is the same computational complexity as in an exact method but with a smaller constant. We provide numerical examples to show our results.

A constrained approach to multiscale stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems

KAUST Repository

Cotter, Simon L.; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Erban, Radek

2011-01-01

Stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions is often computationally intensive, especially if a chemical system contains reactions occurring on different time scales. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale methodology suitable to address

Stochastic simulation and robust design optimization of integrated photonic filters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weng Tsui-Wei

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing variations are becoming an unavoidable issue in modern fabrication processes; therefore, it is crucial to be able to include stochastic uncertainties in the design phase. In this paper, integrated photonic coupled ring resonator filters are considered as an example of significant interest. The sparsity structure in photonic circuits is exploited to construct a sparse combined generalized polynomial chaos model, which is then used to analyze related statistics and perform robust design optimization. Simulation results show that the optimized circuits are more robust to fabrication process variations and achieve a reduction of 11%–35% in the mean square errors of the 3 dB bandwidth compared to unoptimized nominal designs.

Simulation of multivariate stationary stochastic processes using dimension-reduction representation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui; Peng, Yongbo

2018-03-01

In view of the Fourier-Stieltjes integral formula of multivariate stationary stochastic processes, a unified formulation accommodating spectral representation method (SRM) and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is deduced. By introducing random functions as constraints correlating the orthogonal random variables involved in the unified formulation, the dimension-reduction spectral representation method (DR-SRM) and the dimension-reduction proper orthogonal decomposition (DR-POD) are addressed. The proposed schemes are capable of representing the multivariate stationary stochastic process with a few elementary random variables, bypassing the challenges of high-dimensional random variables inherent in the conventional Monte Carlo methods. In order to accelerate the numerical simulation, the technique of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is integrated with the proposed schemes. For illustrative purposes, the simulation of horizontal wind velocity field along the deck of a large-span bridge is proceeded using the proposed methods containing 2 and 3 elementary random variables. Numerical simulation reveals the usefulness of the dimension-reduction representation methods.

Prescribed Performance Fuzzy Adaptive Output-Feedback Control for Nonlinear Stochastic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lili Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A prescribed performance fuzzy adaptive output-feedback control approach is proposed for a class of single-input and single-output nonlinear stochastic systems with unmeasured states. Fuzzy logic systems are used to identify the unknown nonlinear system, and a fuzzy state observer is designed for estimating the unmeasured states. Based on the backstepping recursive design technique and the predefined performance technique, a new fuzzy adaptive output-feedback control method is developed. It is shown that all the signals of the resulting closed-loop system are bounded in probability and the tracking error remains an adjustable neighborhood of the origin with the prescribed performance bounds. A simulation example is provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Stochastic simulation of ecohydrological interactions between vegetation and groundwater

Science.gov (United States)

Dwelle, M. C.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Sargsyan, K.

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between groundwater and vegetation in the Amazon rainforest may yield vital ecophysiological interactions in specific landscape niches such as buffering plant water stress during dry season or suppression of water uptake due to anoxic conditions. Representation of such processes is greatly impacted by both external and internal sources of uncertainty: inaccurate data and subjective choice of model representation. The models that can simulate these processes are complex and computationally expensive, and therefore make it difficult to address uncertainty using traditional methods. We use the ecohydrologic model tRIBS+VEGGIE and a novel uncertainty quantification framework applied to the ZF2 watershed near Manaus, Brazil. We showcase the capability of this framework for stochastic simulation of vegetation-hydrology dynamics. This framework is useful for simulation with internal and external stochasticity, but this work will focus on internal variability of groundwater depth distribution and model parameterizations. We demonstrate the capability of this framework to make inferences on uncertain states of groundwater depth from limited in situ data, and how the realizations of these inferences affect the ecohydrological interactions between groundwater dynamics and vegetation function. We place an emphasis on the probabilistic representation of quantities of interest and how this impacts the understanding and interpretation of the dynamics at the groundwater-vegetation interface.

Analysing initial attack on wildland fires using stochastic simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; James. Spero

2006-01-01

Stochastic simulation models of initial attack on wildland fire can be designed to reflect the complexity of the environmental, administrative, and institutional context in which wildland fire protection agencies operate, but such complexity may come at the cost of a considerable investment in data acquisition and management. This cost may be well justified when it...

Stochastic modeling and simulation of reaction-diffusion system with Hill function dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Minghan; Li, Fei; Wang, Shuo; Cao, Young

2017-03-14

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems presents great challenges for spatiotemporal biological modeling and simulation. One widely used framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems is reaction diffusion master equation (RDME). Previous studies have discovered that for the RDME, when discretization size approaches zero, reaction time for bimolecular reactions in high dimensional domains tends to infinity. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the 1D domain, highly nonlinear reaction dynamics given by Hill function may also have dramatic change when discretization size is smaller than a critical value. Moreover, we discuss methods to avoid this problem: smoothing over space, fixed length smoothing over space and a hybrid method. Our analysis reveals that the switch-like Hill dynamics reduces to a linear function of discretization size when the discretization size is small enough. The three proposed methods could correctly (under certain precision) simulate Hill function dynamics in the microscopic RDME system.

Stochastic simulation of destruction processes in self-irradiated materials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Patsahan

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Self-irradiation damages resulting from fission processes are common phenomena observed in nuclear fuel containing (NFC materials. Numerous α-decays lead to local structure transformations in NFC materials. The damages appearing due to the impacts of heavy nuclear recoils in the subsurface layer can cause detachments of material particles. Such a behaviour is similar to sputtering processes observed during a bombardment of the material surface by a flux of energetic particles. However, in the NFC material, the impacts are initiated from the bulk. In this work we propose a two-dimensional mesoscopic model to perform a stochastic simulation of the destruction processes occurring in a subsurface region of NFC material. We describe the erosion of the material surface, the evolution of its roughness and predict the detachment of the material particles. Size distributions of the emitted particles are obtained in this study. The simulation results of the model are in a qualitative agreement with the size histogram of particles produced from the material containing lava-like fuel formed during the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster.

Stochastic search in structural optimization - Genetic algorithms and simulated annealing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajela, Prabhat

1993-01-01

An account is given of illustrative applications of genetic algorithms and simulated annealing methods in structural optimization. The advantages of such stochastic search methods over traditional mathematical programming strategies are emphasized; it is noted that these methods offer a significantly higher probability of locating the global optimum in a multimodal design space. Both genetic-search and simulated annealing can be effectively used in problems with a mix of continuous, discrete, and integer design variables.

Stochastic four-way coupling of gas-solid flows for Large Eddy Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Curran, Thomas; Denner, Fabian; van Wachem, Berend

2017-11-01

The interaction of solid particles with turbulence has for long been a topic of interest for predicting the behavior of industrially relevant flows. For the turbulent fluid phase, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) methods are widely used for their low computational cost, leaving only the sub-grid scales (SGS) of turbulence to be modelled. Although LES has seen great success in predicting the behavior of turbulent single-phase flows, the development of LES for turbulent gas-solid flows is still in its infancy. This contribution aims at constructing a model to describe the four-way coupling of particles in an LES framework, by considering the role particles play in the transport of turbulent kinetic energy across the scales. Firstly, a stochastic model reconstructing the sub-grid velocities for the particle tracking is presented. Secondly, to solve particle-particle interaction, most models involve a deterministic treatment of the collisions. We finally introduce a stochastic model for estimating the collision probability. All results are validated against fully resolved DNS-DPS simulations. The final goal of this contribution is to propose a global stochastic method adapted to two-phase LES simulation where the number of particles considered can be significantly increased. Financial support from PetroBras is gratefully acknowledged.

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation of Ceramic Matrix Composite Laminates

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Pineda, Evan J.; Bhatt, Ramakrishna T.; Arnold, Steven M.

2016-01-01

The Finite Element Analysis-Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to characterize and predict the progressive damage response of silicon-carbide-fiber-reinforced reaction-bonded silicon nitride matrix (SiC/RBSN) composite laminate tensile specimens. Studied were unidirectional laminates [0] (sub 8), [10] (sub 8), [45] (sub 8), and [90] (sub 8); cross-ply laminates [0 (sub 2) divided by 90 (sub 2),]s; angled-ply laminates [plus 45 (sub 2) divided by -45 (sub 2), ]s; doubled-edge-notched [0] (sub 8), laminates; and central-hole laminates. Results correlated well with the experimental data. This work was performed as a validation and benchmarking exercise of the FEAMAC/CARES program. FEAMAC/CARES simulates stochastic-based discrete-event progressive damage of ceramic matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures. It couples three software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating-unit-cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC, and Abaqus is used to model the overall composite structure. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events that incrementally progress until ultimate structural failure.

Simulating biological processes: stochastic physics from whole cells to colonies

Science.gov (United States)

Earnest, Tyler M.; Cole, John A.; Luthey-Schulten, Zaida

2018-05-01

The last few decades have revealed the living cell to be a crowded spatially heterogeneous space teeming with biomolecules whose concentrations and activities are governed by intrinsically random forces. It is from this randomness, however, that a vast array of precisely timed and intricately coordinated biological functions emerge that give rise to the complex forms and behaviors we see in the biosphere around us. This seemingly paradoxical nature of life has drawn the interest of an increasing number of physicists, and recent years have seen stochastic modeling grow into a major subdiscipline within biological physics. Here we review some of the major advances that have shaped our understanding of stochasticity in biology. We begin with some historical context, outlining a string of important experimental results that motivated the development of stochastic modeling. We then embark upon a fairly rigorous treatment of the simulation methods that are currently available for the treatment of stochastic biological models, with an eye toward comparing and contrasting their realms of applicability, and the care that must be taken when parameterizing them. Following that, we describe how stochasticity impacts several key biological functions, including transcription, translation, ribosome biogenesis, chromosome replication, and metabolism, before considering how the functions may be coupled into a comprehensive model of a ‘minimal cell’. Finally, we close with our expectation for the future of the field, focusing on how mesoscopic stochastic methods may be augmented with atomic-scale molecular modeling approaches in order to understand life across a range of length and time scales.

Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Williams Colin P.

1999-01-01

Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

Adaptive Finite Element Method Assisted by Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Systems

KAUST Repository

Cotter, Simon L.; Vejchodský , Tomá š; Erban, Radek

2013-01-01

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often analyzed by solving the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation, which is a drift-diffusion partial differential equation for the probability distribution function. Efficient numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation requires adaptive mesh refinements. In this paper, we present a mesh refinement approach which makes use of a stochastic simulation of the underlying chemical system. By observing the stochastic trajectory for a relatively short amount of time, the areas of the state space with nonnegligible probability density are identified. By refining the finite element mesh in these areas, and coarsening elsewhere, a suitable mesh is constructed and used for the computation of the stationary probability density. Numerical examples demonstrate that the presented method is competitive with existing a posteriori methods. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Using Equation-Free Computation to Accelerate Network-Free Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Kinetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yen Ting; Chylek, Lily A; Lemons, Nathan W; Hlavacek, William S

2018-06-21

The chemical kinetics of many complex systems can be concisely represented by reaction rules, which can be used to generate reaction events via a kinetic Monte Carlo method that has been termed network-free simulation. Here, we demonstrate accelerated network-free simulation through a novel approach to equation-free computation. In this process, variables are introduced that approximately capture system state. Derivatives of these variables are estimated using short bursts of exact stochastic simulation and finite differencing. The variables are then projected forward in time via a numerical integration scheme, after which a new exact stochastic simulation is initialized and the whole process repeats. The projection step increases efficiency by bypassing the firing of numerous individual reaction events. As we show, the projected variables may be defined as populations of building blocks of chemical species. The maximal number of connected molecules included in these building blocks determines the degree of approximation. Equation-free acceleration of network-free simulation is found to be both accurate and efficient.

Long-time analytic approximation of large stochastic oscillators: Simulation, analysis and inference.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giorgos Minas

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In order to analyse large complex stochastic dynamical models such as those studied in systems biology there is currently a great need for both analytical tools and also algorithms for accurate and fast simulation and estimation. We present a new stochastic approximation of biological oscillators that addresses these needs. Our method, called phase-corrected LNA (pcLNA overcomes the main limitations of the standard Linear Noise Approximation (LNA to remain uniformly accurate for long times, still maintaining the speed and analytically tractability of the LNA. As part of this, we develop analytical expressions for key probability distributions and associated quantities, such as the Fisher Information Matrix and Kullback-Leibler divergence and we introduce a new approach to system-global sensitivity analysis. We also present algorithms for statistical inference and for long-term simulation of oscillating systems that are shown to be as accurate but much faster than leaping algorithms and algorithms for integration of diffusion equations. Stochastic versions of published models of the circadian clock and NF-κB system are used to illustrate our results.

MarkoLAB: A simulator to study ionic channel's stochastic behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Robson Rodrigues; Goroso, Daniel Gustavo; Bers, Donald M; Puglisi, José Luis

2017-08-01

channel. It has been implemented in two platforms MATLAB ® and LabVIEW ® to enhance the target users of this new didactical tool. The computational cost of implementing a stochastic simulation is within the range of a personal computer performance; making MarkoLAB suitable to be run during a lecture or presentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

STEPS: efficient simulation of stochastic reaction–diffusion models in realistic morphologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hepburn Iain

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of cellular molecular systems are built from components such as biochemical reactions (including interactions between ligands and membrane-bound proteins, conformational changes and active and passive transport. A discrete, stochastic description of the kinetics is often essential to capture the behavior of the system accurately. Where spatial effects play a prominent role the complex morphology of cells may have to be represented, along with aspects such as chemical localization and diffusion. This high level of detail makes efficiency a particularly important consideration for software that is designed to simulate such systems. Results We describe STEPS, a stochastic reaction–diffusion simulator developed with an emphasis on simulating biochemical signaling pathways accurately and efficiently. STEPS supports all the above-mentioned features, and well-validated support for SBML allows many existing biochemical models to be imported reliably. Complex boundaries can be represented accurately in externally generated 3D tetrahedral meshes imported by STEPS. The powerful Python interface facilitates model construction and simulation control. STEPS implements the composition and rejection method, a variation of the Gillespie SSA, supporting diffusion between tetrahedral elements within an efficient search and update engine. Additional support for well-mixed conditions and for deterministic model solution is implemented. Solver accuracy is confirmed with an original and extensive validation set consisting of isolated reaction, diffusion and reaction–diffusion systems. Accuracy imposes upper and lower limits on tetrahedron sizes, which are described in detail. By comparing to Smoldyn, we show how the voxel-based approach in STEPS is often faster than particle-based methods, with increasing advantage in larger systems, and by comparing to MesoRD we show the efficiency of the STEPS implementation. Conclusion STEPS simulates

FEAMAC/CARES Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Noel; Bednarcyk, Brett; Pineda, Evan; Arnold, Steven; Mital, Subodh; Murthy, Pappu; Bhatt, Ramakrishna

2016-01-01

Reported here is a coupling of two NASA developed codes: CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/ Generalized Method of Cells) composite material analysis code. The resulting code is called FEAMAC/CARES and is constructed as an Abaqus finite element analysis UMAT (user defined material). Here we describe the FEAMAC/CARES code and an example problem (taken from the open literature) of a laminated CMC in off-axis loading is shown. FEAMAC/CARES performs stochastic-strength-based damage simulation response of a CMC under multiaxial loading using elastic stiffness reduction of the failed elements.

Database of Nucleon-Nucleon Scattering Cross Sections by Stochastic Simulation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A database of nucleon-nucleon elastic differential and total cross sections will be generated by stochastic simulation of the quantum Liouville equation in the...

Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

Science.gov (United States)

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

Design and validation of a dynamic discrete event stochastic simulation model of mastitis control in dairy herds.

Science.gov (United States)

Allore, H G; Schruben, L W; Erb, H N; Oltenacu, P A

1998-03-01

A dynamic stochastic simulation model for discrete events, SIMMAST, was developed to simulate the effect of mastitis on the composition of the bulk tank milk of dairy herds. Intramammary infections caused by Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus spp. other than Strep. agalactiae, Staphylococcus aureus, and coagulase-negative staphylococci were modeled as were the milk, fat, and protein test day solutions for individual cows, which accounted for the fixed effects of days in milk, age at calving, season of calving, somatic cell count (SCC), and random effects of test day, cow yield differences from herdmates, and autocorrelated errors. Probabilities for the transitions among various states of udder health (uninfected or subclinically or clinically infected) were calculated to account for exposure, heifer infection, spontaneous recovery, lactation cure, infection or cure during the dry period, month of lactation, parity, within-herd yields, and the number of quarters with clinical intramammary infection in the previous and current lactations. The stochastic simulation model was constructed using estimates from the literature and also using data from 164 herds enrolled with Quality Milk Promotion Services that each had bulk tank SCC between 500,000 and 750,000/ml. Model parameters and outputs were validated against a separate data file of 69 herds from the Northeast Dairy Herd Improvement Association, each with a bulk tank SCC that was > or = 500,000/ml. Sensitivity analysis was performed on all input parameters for control herds. Using the validated stochastic simulation model, the control herds had a stable time average bulk tank SCC between 500,000 and 750,000/ml.

Stochastic series expansion simulation of the t -V model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei; Liu, Ye-Hua; Troyer, Matthias

2016-04-01

We present an algorithm for the efficient simulation of the half-filled spinless t -V model on bipartite lattices, which combines the stochastic series expansion method with determinantal quantum Monte Carlo techniques widely used in fermionic simulations. The algorithm scales linearly in the inverse temperature, cubically with the system size, and is free from the time-discretization error. We use it to map out the finite-temperature phase diagram of the spinless t -V model on the honeycomb lattice and observe a suppression of the critical temperature of the charge-density-wave phase in the vicinity of a fermionic quantum critical point.

StochKit2: software for discrete stochastic simulation of biochemical systems with events.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanft, Kevin R; Wu, Sheng; Roh, Min; Fu, Jin; Lim, Rone Kwei; Petzold, Linda R

2011-09-01

StochKit2 is the first major upgrade of the popular StochKit stochastic simulation software package. StochKit2 provides highly efficient implementations of several variants of Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), and tau-leaping with automatic step size selection. StochKit2 features include automatic selection of the optimal SSA method based on model properties, event handling, and automatic parallelism on multicore architectures. The underlying structure of the code has been completely updated to provide a flexible framework for extending its functionality. StochKit2 runs on Linux/Unix, Mac OS X and Windows. It is freely available under GPL version 3 and can be downloaded from http://sourceforge.net/projects/stochkit/. petzold@engineering.ucsb.edu.

Solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems using stochastic simulation and multi-criteria fuzzy decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tahvili, Sahar; Österberg, Jonas; Silvestrov, Sergei; Biteus, Jonas

2014-01-01

One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation

Solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems using stochastic simulation and multi-criteria fuzzy decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tahvili, Sahar [Mälardalen University (Sweden); Österberg, Jonas; Silvestrov, Sergei [Division of Applied Mathematics, Mälardalen University (Sweden); Biteus, Jonas [Scania CV (Sweden)

2014-12-10

One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation.

Stochastic and simulation models of maritime intercept operations capabilities

OpenAIRE

Sato, Hiroyuki

2005-01-01

The research formulates and exercises stochastic and simulation models to assess the Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) capabilities. The models focus on the surveillance operations of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). The analysis using the models estimates the probability with which a terrorist vessel (Red) is detected, correctly classified, and escorted for intensive investigation and neutralization before it leaves an area of interest (AOI). The difficulty of obtaining adequate int...

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GERMÁN LOBOS

2015-12-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

Stochastic simulation of grain growth during continuous casting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez, A.; Carrillo, F.; Gonzalez, J.L.; Lopez, S.

2006-01-01

The evolution of microstructure is a very important topic in material science engineering because the solidification conditions of steel billets during continuous casting process affect directly the properties of the final products. In this paper a mathematical model is described in order to simulate the dendritic growth using data of real casting operations; here a combination of deterministic and stochastic methods was used as a function of the solidification time of every node in order to create a reconstruction about the morphology of cast structures

Stochastic simulation of grain growth during continuous casting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramirez, A. [Department of Aerounatical Engineering, S.E.P.I., E.S.I.M.E., IPN, Instituto Politecnico Nacional (Unidad Profesional Ticoman), Av. Ticoman 600, Col. Ticoman, C.P.07340 (Mexico)]. E-mail: adalop123@mailbanamex.com; Carrillo, F. [Department of Processing Materials, CICATA-IPN Unidad Altamira Tamps (Mexico); Gonzalez, J.L. [Department of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering, E.S.I.Q.I.E.-IPN (Mexico); Lopez, S. [Department of Molecular Engineering of I.M.P., AP 14-805 (Mexico)

2006-04-15

The evolution of microstructure is a very important topic in material science engineering because the solidification conditions of steel billets during continuous casting process affect directly the properties of the final products. In this paper a mathematical model is described in order to simulate the dendritic growth using data of real casting operations; here a combination of deterministic and stochastic methods was used as a function of the solidification time of every node in order to create a reconstruction about the morphology of cast structures.

Searching for Stable SinCn Clusters: Combination of Stochastic Potential Surface Search and Pseudopotential Plane-Wave Car-Parinello Simulated Annealing Simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larry W. Burggraf

2013-07-01

Full Text Available To find low energy SinCn structures out of hundreds to thousands of isomers we have developed a general method to search for stable isomeric structures that combines Stochastic Potential Surface Search and Pseudopotential Plane-Wave Density Functional Theory Car-Parinello Molecular Dynamics simulated annealing (PSPW-CPMD-SA. We enhanced the Sunders stochastic search method to generate random cluster structures used as seed structures for PSPW-CPMD-SA simulations. This method ensures that each SA simulation samples a different potential surface region to find the regional minimum structure. By iterations of this automated, parallel process on a high performance computer we located hundreds to more than a thousand stable isomers for each SinCn cluster. Among these, five to 10 of the lowest energy isomers were further optimized using B3LYP/cc-pVTZ method. We applied this method to SinCn (n = 4–12 clusters and found the lowest energy structures, most not previously reported. By analyzing the bonding patterns of low energy structures of each SinCn cluster, we observed that carbon segregations tend to form condensed conjugated rings while Si connects to unsaturated bonds at the periphery of the carbon segregation as single atoms or clusters when n is small and when n is large a silicon network spans over the carbon segregation region.

Simulating Performance Risk for Lighting Retrofit Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Hu

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In building retrofit projects, dynamic simulations are performed to simulate building performance. Uncertainty may negatively affect model calibration and predicted lighting energy savings, which increases the chance of default on performance-based contracts. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a simulation-based method that can analyze lighting performance risk in lighting retrofit decisions. The model uses a surrogate model, which is constructed by adaptively selecting sample points and generating approximation surfaces with fast computing time. The surrogate model is a replacement of the computation intensive process. A statistical method is developed to generate extreme weather profile based on the 20-year historical weather data. A stochastic occupancy model was created using actual occupancy data to generate realistic occupancy patterns. Energy usage of lighting, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC is simulated using EnergyPlus. The method can evaluate the influence of different risk factors (e.g., variation of luminaire input wattage, varying weather conditions on lighting and HVAC energy consumption and lighting electricity demand. Probability distributions are generated to quantify the risk values. A case study was conducted to demonstrate and validate the methods. The surrogate model is a good solution for quantifying the risk factors and probability distribution of the building performance.

ENVIRONMENT: a computational platform to stochastically simulate reacting and self-reproducing lipid compartments

Science.gov (United States)

Mavelli, Fabio; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa

2010-09-01

'ENVIRONMENT' is a computational platform that has been developed in the last few years with the aim to simulate stochastically the dynamics and stability of chemically reacting protocellular systems. Here we present and describe some of its main features, showing how the stochastic kinetics approach can be applied to study the time evolution of reaction networks in heterogeneous conditions, particularly when supramolecular lipid structures (micelles, vesicles, etc) coexist with aqueous domains. These conditions are of special relevance to understand the origins of cellular, self-reproducing compartments, in the context of prebiotic chemistry and evolution. We contrast our simulation results with real lab experiments, with the aim to bring together theoretical and experimental research on protocell and minimal artificial cell systems.

Stochastic plasma heating by electrostatic waves: a comparison between a particle-in-cell simulation and a laboratory experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fivaz, M.; Fasoli, A.; Appert, K.; Trans, T.M.; Tran, M.Q.; Skiff, F.

1993-08-01

Dynamical chaos is produced by the interaction between plasma particles and two electrostatic waves. Experiments performed in a linear magnetized plasma and a 1D particle-in-cell simulation agree qualitatively: above a threshold wave amplitude, ion stochastic diffusion and heating occur on a fast time scale. Self-consistency appears to limit the extent of the heating process. (author) 5 figs., 18 refs

Verification of HYDRASTAR - A code for stochastic continuum simulation of groundwater flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norman, S.

1991-07-01

HYDRASTAR is a code developed at Starprog AB for use in the SKB 91 performance assessment project with the following principal function: - Reads the actual conductivity measurements from a file created from the data base GEOTAB. - Regularizes the measurements to a user chosen calculation scale. - Generates three dimensional unconditional realizations of the conductivity field by using a supplied model of the conductivity field as a stochastic function. - Conditions the simulated conductivity field on the actual regularized measurements. - Reads the boundary conditions from a regional deterministic NAMMU computation. - Calculates the hydraulic head field, Darcy velocity field, stream lines and water travel times by solving the stationary hydrology equation and the streamline equation obtained with the velocities calculated from Darcy's law. - Generates visualizations of the realizations if desired. - Calculates statistics such as semivariograms and expectation values of the output fields by repeating the above procedure by iterations of the Monte Carlo type. When using computer codes for safety assessment purpose validation and verification of the codes are important. Thus this report describes a work performed with the goal of verifying parts of HYDRASTAR. The verification described in this report uses comparisons with two other solutions of related examples: A. Comparison with a so called perturbation solution of the stochastical stationary hydrology equation. This as an analytical approximation of the stochastical stationary hydrology equation valid in the case of small variability of the unconditional random conductivity field. B. Comparison with the (Hydrocoin, 1988), case 2. This is a classical example of a hydrology problem with a deterministic conductivity field. The principal feature of the problem is the presence of narrow fracture zones with high conductivity. the compared output are the hydraulic head field and a number of stream lines originating from a

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix and Polymer Matrix Composite Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Pineda, Evan J.; Walton, Owen J.; Arnold, Steven M.

2016-01-01

Stochastic-based, discrete-event progressive damage simulations of ceramic-matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures have been enabled through the development of a unique multiscale modeling tool. This effort involves coupling three independently developed software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/ Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis (FEA) program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating unit cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC. Abaqus is used at the global scale to model the overall composite structure. An Abaqus user-defined material (UMAT) interface, referred to here as "FEAMAC/CARES," was developed that enables MAC/GMC and CARES/Life to operate seamlessly with the Abaqus FEA code. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events, which incrementally progress and lead to ultimate structural failure. This report describes the FEAMAC/CARES methodology and discusses examples that illustrate the performance of the tool. A comprehensive example problem, simulating the progressive damage of laminated ceramic matrix composites under various off-axis loading conditions and including a double notched tensile specimen geometry, is described in a separate report.

Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

2010-01-01

Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

Stochastic strong ground motion simulations for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Kkallas, Harris; Papazachos, Konstantinos; Boore, David; Margaris, Vasilis

2015-04-01

We have employed the stochastic finite-fault modelling approach of Motazedian and Atkinson (2005), as described by Boore (2009), for the simulation of Fourier spectra of the Intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone. The stochastic finite-fault method is a practical tool for simulating ground motions of future earthquakes which requires region-specific source, path and site characterizations as input model parameters. For this reason we have used data from both acceleration-sensor and broadband velocity-sensor instruments from intermediate-depth earthquakes with magnitude of M 4.5-6.7 that occurred in the south Aegean subduction zone. Source mechanisms for intermediate-depth events of north Aegean subduction zone are either collected from published information or are constrained using the main faulting types from Kkallas et al. (2013). The attenuation parameters for simulations were adopted from Skarladoudis et al. (2013) and are based on regression analysis of a response spectra database. The site amplification functions for each soil class were adopted from Klimis et al., (1999), while the kappa values were constrained from the analysis of the EGELADOS network data from Ventouzi et al., (2013). The investigation of stress-drop values was based on simulations performed with the EXSIM code for several ranges of stress drop values and by comparing the results with the available Fourier spectra of intermediate-depth earthquakes. Significant differences regarding the strong-motion duration, which is determined from Husid plots (Husid, 1969), have been identified between the for-arc and along-arc stations due to the effect of the low-velocity/low-Q mantle wedge on the seismic wave propagation. In order to estimate appropriate values for the duration of P-waves, we have automatically picked P-S durations on the available seismograms. For the S-wave durations we have used the part of the seismograms starting from the S-arrivals and ending at the

Stabilizing simulations of complex stochastic representations for quantum dynamical systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perret, C; Petersen, W P, E-mail: wpp@math.ethz.ch [Seminar for Applied Mathematics, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-03-04

Path integral representations of quantum dynamics can often be formulated as stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In a series of papers, Corney and Drummond (2004 Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 260401), Deuar and Drummond (2001 Comput. Phys. Commun. 142 442-5), Drummond and Gardnier (1980 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 13 2353-68), Gardiner and Zoller (2004 Quantum Noise: A Handbook of Markovian and Non-Markovian Quantum Stochastic Methods with Applications to Quantum Optics (Springer Series in Synergetics) 3rd edn (Berlin: Springer)) and Gilchrist et al (1997 Phys. Rev. A 55 3014-32) and their collaborators have derived SDEs from coherent states representations for density matrices. Computationally, these SDEs are attractive because they seem simple to simulate. They can be quite unstable, however. In this paper, we consider some of the instabilities and propose a few remedies. Particularly, because the variances of the simulated paths typically grow exponentially, the processes become de-localized in relatively short times. Hence, the issues of boundary conditions and stable integration methods become important. We use the Bose-Einstein Hamiltonian as an example. Our results reveal that it is possible to significantly extend integration times and show the periodic structure of certain functionals.

MCdevelop - a universal framework for Stochastic Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Slawinska, M.; Jadach, S.

2011-03-01

We present MCdevelop, a universal computer framework for developing and exploiting the wide class of Stochastic Simulations (SS) software. This powerful universal SS software development tool has been derived from a series of scientific projects for precision calculations in high energy physics (HEP), which feature a wide range of functionality in the SS software needed for advanced precision Quantum Field Theory calculations for the past LEP experiments and for the ongoing LHC experiments at CERN, Geneva. MCdevelop is a "spin-off" product of HEP to be exploited in other areas, while it will still serve to develop new SS software for HEP experiments. Typically SS involve independent generation of large sets of random "events", often requiring considerable CPU power. Since SS jobs usually do not share memory it makes them easy to parallelize. The efficient development, testing and running in parallel SS software requires a convenient framework to develop software source code, deploy and monitor batch jobs, merge and analyse results from multiple parallel jobs, even before the production runs are terminated. Throughout the years of development of stochastic simulations for HEP, a sophisticated framework featuring all the above mentioned functionality has been implemented. MCdevelop represents its latest version, written mostly in C++ (GNU compiler gcc). It uses Autotools to build binaries (optionally managed within the KDevelop 3.5.3 Integrated Development Environment (IDE)). It uses the open-source ROOT package for histogramming, graphics and the mechanism of persistency for the C++ objects. MCdevelop helps to run multiple parallel jobs on any computer cluster with NQS-type batch system. Program summaryProgram title:MCdevelop Catalogue identifier: AEHW_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEHW_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http

Quantum simulation of a quantum stochastic walk

Science.gov (United States)

Govia, Luke C. G.; Taketani, Bruno G.; Schuhmacher, Peter K.; Wilhelm, Frank K.

2017-03-01

The study of quantum walks has been shown to have a wide range of applications in areas such as artificial intelligence, the study of biological processes, and quantum transport. The quantum stochastic walk (QSW), which allows for incoherent movement of the walker, and therefore, directionality, is a generalization on the fully coherent quantum walk. While a QSW can always be described in Lindblad formalism, this does not mean that it can be microscopically derived in the standard weak-coupling limit under the Born-Markov approximation. This restricts the class of QSWs that can be experimentally realized in a simple manner. To circumvent this restriction, we introduce a technique to simulate open system evolution on a fully coherent quantum computer, using a quantum trajectories style approach. We apply this technique to a broad class of QSWs, and show that they can be simulated with minimal experimental resources. Our work opens the path towards the experimental realization of QSWs on large graphs with existing quantum technologies.

Stochastic Rotation Dynamics simulations of wetting multi-phase flows

Science.gov (United States)

Hiller, Thomas; Sanchez de La Lama, Marta; Brinkmann, Martin

2016-06-01

Multi-color Stochastic Rotation Dynamics (SRDmc) has been introduced by Inoue et al. [1,2] as a particle based simulation method to study the flow of emulsion droplets in non-wetting microchannels. In this work, we extend the multi-color method to also account for different wetting conditions. This is achieved by assigning the color information not only to fluid particles but also to virtual wall particles that are required to enforce proper no-slip boundary conditions. To extend the scope of the original SRDmc algorithm to e.g. immiscible two-phase flow with viscosity contrast we implement an angular momentum conserving scheme (SRD+mc). We perform extensive benchmark simulations to show that a mono-phase SRDmc fluid exhibits bulk properties identical to a standard SRD fluid and that SRDmc fluids are applicable to a wide range of immiscible two-phase flows. To quantify the adhesion of a SRD+mc fluid in contact to the walls we measure the apparent contact angle from sessile droplets in mechanical equilibrium. For a further verification of our wettability implementation we compare the dewetting of a liquid film from a wetting stripe to experimental and numerical studies of interfacial morphologies on chemically structured surfaces.

Stochastic development regression using method of moments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kühnel, Line; Sommer, Stefan Horst

2017-01-01

This paper considers the estimation problem arising when inferring parameters in the stochastic development regression model for manifold valued non-linear data. Stochastic development regression captures the relation between manifold-valued response and Euclidean covariate variables using...... the stochastic development construction. It is thereby able to incorporate several covariate variables and random effects. The model is intrinsically defined using the connection of the manifold, and the use of stochastic development avoids linearizing the geometry. We propose to infer parameters using...... the Method of Moments procedure that matches known constraints on moments of the observations conditional on the latent variables. The performance of the model is investigated in a simulation example using data on finite dimensional landmark manifolds....

Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Dodov, B.

2017-12-01

Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

Modeling Group Perceptions Using Stochastic Simulation: Scaling Issues in the Multiplicative AHP

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn; van den Honert, Robin; Salling, Kim Bang

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a new decision support approach for applying stochastic simulation to the multiplicative analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in order to deal with issues concerning the scale parameter. The paper suggests a new approach that captures the influence from the scale parameter by maki...

Natural tracer test simulation by stochastic particle tracking method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackerer, P.; Mose, R.; Semra, K.

1990-01-01

Stochastic particle tracking methods are well adapted to 3D transport simulations where discretization requirements of other methods usually cannot be satisfied. They do need a very accurate approximation of the velocity field. The described code is based on the mixed hybrid finite element method (MHFEM) to calculated the piezometric and velocity field. The random-walk method is used to simulate mass transport. The main advantages of the MHFEM over FD or FE are the simultaneous calculation of pressure and velocity, which are considered as unknowns; the possibility of interpolating velocities everywhere; and the continuity of the normal component of the velocity vector from one element to another. For these reasons, the MHFEM is well adapted for particle tracking methods. After a general description of the numerical methods, the model is used to simulate the observations made during the Twin Lake Tracer Test in 1983. A good match is found between observed and simulated heads and concentrations. (Author) (12 refs., 4 figs.)

Simulation of Higher-Order Electrical Circuits with Stochastic Parameters via SDEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BRANCIK, L.

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with a technique for the simulation of higher-order electrical circuits with parameters varying randomly. The principle consists in the utilization of the theory of stochastic differential equations (SDE, namely the vector form of the ordinary SDEs. Random changes of both excitation voltage and some parameters of passive circuit elements are considered, and circuit responses are analyzed. The voltage and/or current responses are computed and represented in the form of the sample means accompanied by their confidence intervals to provide reliable estimates. The method is applied to analyze responses of the circuit models of optional orders, specially those consisting of a cascade connection of the RLGC networks. To develop the model equations the state-variable method is used, afterwards a corresponding vector SDE is formulated and a stochastic Euler numerical method applied. To verify the results the deterministic responses are also computed by the help of the PSpice simulator or the numerical inverse Laplace transforms (NILT procedure in MATLAB, while removing random terms from the circuit model.

Some simulation aspects, from molecular systems to stochastic geometries of pebble bed reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazzolo, A.

2009-06-01

After a brief presentation of his teaching and supervising activities, the author gives an overview of his research activities: investigation of atoms under high intensity magnetic field (investigation of the electronic structure under these fields), studies of theoretical and numerical electrochemistry (simulation coupling molecular dynamics and quantum calculations, comprehensive simulations of molecular dynamics), and studies relating stochastic geometry and neutron science

Metaheuristic simulation optimisation for the stochastic multi-retailer supply chain

Science.gov (United States)

Omar, Marina; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna H.; Othman, Siti Norsyahida

2013-04-01

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is an important activity in all producing facilities and in many organizations to enable vendors, manufacturers and suppliers to interact gainfully and plan optimally their flow of goods and services. A simulation optimization approach has been widely used in research nowadays on finding the best solution for decision-making process in Supply Chain Management (SCM) that generally faced a complexity with large sources of uncertainty and various decision factors. Metahueristic method is the most popular simulation optimization approach. However, very few researches have applied this approach in optimizing the simulation model for supply chains. Thus, this paper interested in evaluating the performance of metahueristic method for stochastic supply chains in determining the best flexible inventory replenishment parameters that minimize the total operating cost. The simulation optimization model is proposed based on the Bees algorithm (BA) which has been widely applied in engineering application such as training neural networks for pattern recognition. BA is a new member of meta-heuristics. BA tries to model natural behavior of honey bees in food foraging. Honey bees use several mechanisms like waggle dance to optimally locate food sources and to search new ones. This makes them a good candidate for developing new algorithms for solving optimization problems. This model considers an outbound centralised distribution system consisting of one supplier and 3 identical retailers and is assumed to be independent and identically distributed with unlimited supply capacity at supplier.

URDME: a modular framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-transport processes in complex geometries.

Science.gov (United States)

Drawert, Brian; Engblom, Stefan; Hellander, Andreas

2012-06-22

Experiments in silico using stochastic reaction-diffusion models have emerged as an important tool in molecular systems biology. Designing computational software for such applications poses several challenges. Firstly, realistic lattice-based modeling for biological applications requires a consistent way of handling complex geometries, including curved inner- and outer boundaries. Secondly, spatiotemporal stochastic simulations are computationally expensive due to the fast time scales of individual reaction- and diffusion events when compared to the biological phenomena of actual interest. We therefore argue that simulation software needs to be both computationally efficient, employing sophisticated algorithms, yet in the same time flexible in order to meet present and future needs of increasingly complex biological modeling. We have developed URDME, a flexible software framework for general stochastic reaction-transport modeling and simulation. URDME uses Unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes to resolve general geometries, and relies on the Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation formalism to model the processes under study. An interface to a mature geometry and mesh handling external software (Comsol Multiphysics) provides for a stable and interactive environment for model construction. The core simulation routines are logically separated from the model building interface and written in a low-level language for computational efficiency. The connection to the geometry handling software is realized via a Matlab interface which facilitates script computing, data management, and post-processing. For practitioners, the software therefore behaves much as an interactive Matlab toolbox. At the same time, it is possible to modify and extend URDME with newly developed simulation routines. Since the overall design effectively hides the complexity of managing the geometry and meshes, this means that newly developed methods may be tested in a realistic setting already at

arXiv Stochastic locality and master-field simulations of very large lattices

CERN Document Server

Lüscher, Martin

2018-01-01

In lattice QCD and other field theories with a mass gap, the field variables in distant regions of a physically large lattice are only weakly correlated. Accurate stochastic estimates of the expectation values of local observables may therefore be obtained from a single representative field. Such master-field simulations potentially allow very large lattices to be simulated, but require various conceptual and technical issues to be addressed. In this talk, an introduction to the subject is provided and some encouraging results of master-field simulations of the SU(3) gauge theory are reported.

Development of a Stochastically-driven, Forward Predictive Performance Model for PEMFCs

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, David Benjamin Paul

A one-dimensional multi-scale coupled, transient, and mechanistic performance model for a PEMFC membrane electrode assembly has been developed. The model explicitly includes each of the 5 layers within a membrane electrode assembly and solves for the transport of charge, heat, mass, species, dissolved water, and liquid water. Key features of the model include the use of a multi-step implementation of the HOR reaction on the anode, agglomerate catalyst sub-models for both the anode and cathode catalyst layers, a unique approach that links the composition of the catalyst layer to key properties within the agglomerate model and the implementation of a stochastic input-based approach for component material properties. The model employs a new methodology for validation using statistically varying input parameters and statistically-based experimental performance data; this model represents the first stochastic input driven unit cell performance model. The stochastic input driven performance model was used to identify optimal ionomer content within the cathode catalyst layer, demonstrate the role of material variation in potential low performing MEA materials, provide explanation for the performance of low-Pt loaded MEAs, and investigate the validity of transient-sweep experimental diagnostic methods.

Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

2014-01-01

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

Searching for stable Si(n)C(n) clusters: combination of stochastic potential surface search and pseudopotential plane-wave Car-Parinello simulated annealing simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Xiaofeng F; Burggraf, Larry W; Huang, Lingyu

2013-07-22

To find low energy Si(n)C(n) structures out of hundreds to thousands of isomers we have developed a general method to search for stable isomeric structures that combines Stochastic Potential Surface Search and Pseudopotential Plane-Wave Density Functional Theory Car-Parinello Molecular Dynamics simulated annealing (PSPW-CPMD-SA). We enhanced the Sunders stochastic search method to generate random cluster structures used as seed structures for PSPW-CPMD-SA simulations. This method ensures that each SA simulation samples a different potential surface region to find the regional minimum structure. By iterations of this automated, parallel process on a high performance computer we located hundreds to more than a thousand stable isomers for each Si(n)C(n) cluster. Among these, five to 10 of the lowest energy isomers were further optimized using B3LYP/cc-pVTZ method. We applied this method to Si(n)C(n) (n = 4-12) clusters and found the lowest energy structures, most not previously reported. By analyzing the bonding patterns of low energy structures of each Si(n)C(n) cluster, we observed that carbon segregations tend to form condensed conjugated rings while Si connects to unsaturated bonds at the periphery of the carbon segregation as single atoms or clusters when n is small and when n is large a silicon network spans over the carbon segregation region.

Stochastic stresses in granular matter simulated by dripping identical ellipses into plane silo

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berntsen, Kasper Nikolaj; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

2000-01-01

A two-dimensional silo pressure model-problem is investigated by molecular dynamics simulations. A plane silo container is filled by a granular matter consisting of congruent elliptic particles dropped one by one into the silo. A suitable energy absorbing contact force mechanism is activatedduring...... the granular matter in the silo are compared to thesolution of a stochastic equilibrium differential equation. In this equation the stochasticity source is a homogeneouswhite noise gamma-distributed side pressure factor field along the walls. This is a generalization of the deterministic side pressure factor...... proposed by Janssen in 1895. The stochastic Janssen factor model is shown to be fairly consistentwith the observations from which the mean and the intensity of the white noise is estimated by the method of maximumlikelihood using the properties of the gamma-distribution. Two wall friction coefficients...

Comparison of stochastic models in Monte Carlo simulation of coated particle fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Hui; Nam Zin Cho

2013-01-01

There is growing interest worldwide in very high temperature gas cooled reactors as candidates for next generation reactor systems. For design and analysis of such reactors with double heterogeneity introduced by the coated particle fuels that are randomly distributed in graphite pebbles, stochastic transport models are becoming essential. Several models were reported in the literature, such as coarse lattice models, fine lattice stochastic (FLS) models, random sequential addition (RSA) models, metropolis models. The principles and performance of these stochastic models are described and compared in this paper. Compared with the usual fixed lattice methods, sub-FLS modeling allows more realistic stochastic distribution of fuel particles and thus results in more accurate criticality calculation. Compared with the basic RSA method, sub-FLS modeling requires simpler and more efficient overlapping checking procedure. (authors)

Stochastic Simulation of Cardiac Ventricular Myocyte Calcium Dynamics and Waves

OpenAIRE

Tuan, Hoang-Trong Minh; Williams, George S. B.; Chikando, Aristide C.; Sobie, Eric A.; Lederer, W. Jonathan; Jafri, M. Saleet

2011-01-01

A three dimensional model of calcium dynamics in the rat ventricular myocyte was developed to study the mechanism of calcium homeostasis and pathological calcium dynamics during calcium overload. The model contains 20,000 calcium release units (CRUs) each containing 49 ryanodine receptors. The model simulates calcium sparks with a realistic spontaneous calcium spark rate. It suggests that in addition to the calcium spark-based leak, there is an invisible calcium leak caused by the stochastic ...

Development of Fast-Time Stochastic Airport Ground and Runway Simulation Model and Its Traffic Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryota Mori

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Airport congestion, in particular congestion of departure aircraft, has already been discussed by other researches. Most solutions, though, fail to account for uncertainties. Since it is difficult to remove uncertainties of the operations in the real world, a strategy should be developed assuming such uncertainties exist. Therefore, this research develops a fast-time stochastic simulation model used to validate various methods in order to decrease airport congestion level under existing uncertainties. The surface movement data is analyzed first, and the uncertainty level is obtained. Next, based on the result of data analysis, the stochastic simulation model is developed. The model is validated statistically and the characteristics of airport operation under existing uncertainties are investigated.

Stochastic Wake Modelling Based on POD Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Bastine

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, large eddy simulation data is analysed to investigate a new stochastic modeling approach for the wake of a wind turbine. The data is generated by the large eddy simulation (LES model PALM combined with an actuator disk with rotation representing the turbine. After applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, three different stochastic models for the weighting coefficients of the POD modes are deduced resulting in three different wake models. Their performance is investigated mainly on the basis of aeroelastic simulations of a wind turbine in the wake. Three different load cases and their statistical characteristics are compared for the original LES, truncated PODs and the stochastic wake models including different numbers of POD modes. It is shown that approximately six POD modes are enough to capture the load dynamics on large temporal scales. Modeling the weighting coefficients as independent stochastic processes leads to similar load characteristics as in the case of the truncated POD. To complete this simplified wake description, we show evidence that the small-scale dynamics can be captured by adding to our model a homogeneous turbulent field. In this way, we present a procedure to derive stochastic wake models from costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD calculations or elaborated experimental investigations. These numerically efficient models provide the added value of possible long-term studies. Depending on the aspects of interest, different minimalized models may be obtained.

Digital hardware implementation of a stochastic two-dimensional neuron model.

Science.gov (United States)

Grassia, F; Kohno, T; Levi, T

2016-11-01

This study explores the feasibility of stochastic neuron simulation in digital systems (FPGA), which realizes an implementation of a two-dimensional neuron model. The stochasticity is added by a source of current noise in the silicon neuron using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This approach uses digital computation to emulate individual neuron behavior using fixed point arithmetic operation. The neuron model's computations are performed in arithmetic pipelines. It was designed in VHDL language and simulated prior to mapping in the FPGA. The experimental results confirmed the validity of the developed stochastic FPGA implementation, which makes the implementation of the silicon neuron more biologically plausible for future hybrid experiments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple stochastic model for dipole moment fluctuations in numerical dynamo simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Domenico G. eMeduri

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Earth's axial dipole field changes in a complex fashion on many differenttime scales ranging from less than a year to tens of million years.Documenting, analysing, and replicating this intricate signalis a challenge for data acquisition, theoretical interpretation,and dynamo modelling alike. Here we explore whether axial dipole variationscan be described by the superposition of a slow deterministic driftand fast stochastic fluctuations, i.e. by a Langevin-type system.The drift term describes the time averaged behaviour of the axial dipole variations,whereas the stochastic part mimics complex flow interactions over convective time scales.The statistical behaviour of the system is described by a Fokker-Planck equation whichallows useful predictions, including the average rates of dipole reversals and excursions.We analyse several numerical dynamo simulations, most of which havebeen integrated particularly long in time, and also the palaeomagneticmodel PADM2M which covers the past 2 Myr.The results show that the Langevin description provides a viable statistical modelof the axial dipole variations on time scales longer than about 1 kyr.For example, the axial dipole probability distribution and the average reversalrate are successfully predicted.The exception is PADM2M where the stochastic model reversal rate seems too low.The dependence of the drift on the axial dipolemoment reveals the nonlinear interactions that establish thedynamo balance. A separate analysis of inductive and diffusive magnetic effectsin three dynamo simulations suggests that the classical quadraticquenching of induction predicted by mean-field theory seems at work.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

KAUST Repository

Navarro, Marí a; Le Maitre, Olivier; Knio, Omar

2016-01-01

sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity

Coarse-grained stochastic processes and kinetic Monte Carlo simulators for the diffusion of interacting particles

Science.gov (United States)

Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Vlachos, Dionisios G.

2003-11-01

We derive a hierarchy of successively coarse-grained stochastic processes and associated coarse-grained Monte Carlo (CGMC) algorithms directly from the microscopic processes as approximations in larger length scales for the case of diffusion of interacting particles on a lattice. This hierarchy of models spans length scales between microscopic and mesoscopic, satisfies a detailed balance, and gives self-consistent fluctuation mechanisms whose noise is asymptotically identical to the microscopic MC. Rigorous, detailed asymptotics justify and clarify these connections. Gradient continuous time microscopic MC and CGMC simulations are compared under far from equilibrium conditions to illustrate the validity of our theory and delineate the errors obtained by rigorous asymptotics. Information theory estimates are employed for the first time to provide rigorous error estimates between the solutions of microscopic MC and CGMC, describing the loss of information during the coarse-graining process. Simulations under periodic boundary conditions are used to verify the information theory error estimates. It is shown that coarse-graining in space leads also to coarse-graining in time by q2, where q is the level of coarse-graining, and overcomes in part the hydrodynamic slowdown. Operation counting and CGMC simulations demonstrate significant CPU savings in continuous time MC simulations that vary from q3 for short potentials to q4 for long potentials. Finally, connections of the new coarse-grained stochastic processes to stochastic mesoscopic and Cahn-Hilliard-Cook models are made.

Extending Stochastic Network Calculus to Loss Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Luo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Loss is an important parameter of Quality of Service (QoS. Though stochastic network calculus is a very useful tool for performance evaluation of computer networks, existing studies on stochastic service guarantees mainly focused on the delay and backlog. Some efforts have been made to analyse loss by deterministic network calculus, but there are few results to extend stochastic network calculus for loss analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new parameter named loss factor into stochastic network calculus and then derive the loss bound through the existing arrival curve and service curve via this parameter. We then prove that our result is suitable for the networks with multiple input flows. Simulations show the impact of buffer size, arrival traffic, and service on the loss factor.

A new unbiased stochastic derivative estimator for discontinuous sample performances with structural parameters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peng, Yijie; Fu, Michael C.; Hu, Jian Qiang; Heidergott, Bernd

In this paper, we propose a new unbiased stochastic derivative estimator in a framework that can handle discontinuous sample performances with structural parameters. This work extends the three most popular unbiased stochastic derivative estimators: (1) infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA), (2)

Simulation and Statistical Inference of Stochastic Reaction Networks with Applications to Epidemic Models

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2015-01-01

Epidemics have shaped, sometimes more than wars and natural disasters, demo- graphic aspects of human populations around the world, their health habits and their economies. Ebola and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are clear and current examples of potential hazards at planetary scale. During the spread of an epidemic disease, there are phenomena, like the sudden extinction of the epidemic, that can not be captured by deterministic models. As a consequence, stochastic models have been proposed during the last decades. A typical forward problem in the stochastic setting could be the approximation of the expected number of infected individuals found in one month from now. On the other hand, a typical inverse problem could be, given a discretely observed set of epidemiological data, infer the transmission rate of the epidemic or its basic reproduction number. Markovian epidemic models are stochastic models belonging to a wide class of pure jump processes known as Stochastic Reaction Networks (SRNs), that are intended to describe the time evolution of interacting particle systems where one particle interacts with the others through a finite set of reaction channels. SRNs have been mainly developed to model biochemical reactions but they also have applications in neural networks, virus kinetics, and dynamics of social networks, among others. 4 This PhD thesis is focused on novel fast simulation algorithms and statistical inference methods for SRNs. Our novel Multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) hybrid simulation algorithms provide accurate estimates of expected values of a given observable of SRNs at a prescribed final time. They are designed to control the global approximation error up to a user-selected accuracy and up to a certain confidence level, and with near optimal computational work. We also present novel dual-weighted residual expansions for fast estimation of weak and strong errors arising from the MLMC methodology. Regarding the statistical inference

Simulations of DSB Yields and Radiation-induced Chromosomal Aberrations in Human Cells Based on the Stochastic Track Structure Induced by HZE Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Ponomarev, Artem; Plante, Ianik; George, Kerry; Wu, Honglu

2014-01-01

The formation of double-strand breaks (DSBs) and chromosomal aberrations (CAs) is of great importance in radiation research and, specifically, in space applications. We are presenting a new particle track and DNA damage model, in which the particle stochastic track structure is combined with the random walk (RW) structure of chromosomes in a cell nucleus. The motivation for this effort stems from the fact that the model with the RW chromosomes, NASARTI (NASA radiation track image) previously relied on amorphous track structure, while the stochastic track structure model RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks) was focused on more microscopic targets than the entire genome. We have combined chromosomes simulated by RWs with stochastic track structure, which uses nanoscopic dose calculations performed with the Monte-Carlo simulation by RITRACKS in a voxelized space. The new simulations produce the number of DSBs as function of dose and particle fluence for high-energy particles, including iron, carbon and protons, using voxels of 20 nm dimension. The combined model also calculates yields of radiation-induced CAs and unrejoined chromosome breaks in normal and repair deficient cells. The joined computational model is calibrated using the relative frequencies and distributions of chromosomal aberrations reported in the literature. The model considers fractionated deposition of energy to approximate dose rates of the space flight environment. The joined model also predicts of the yields and sizes of translocations, dicentrics, rings, and more complex-type aberrations formed in the G0/G1 cell cycle phase during the first cell division after irradiation. We found that the main advantage of the joined model is our ability to simulate small doses: 0.05-0.5 Gy. At such low doses, the stochastic track structure proved to be indispensable, as the action of individual delta-rays becomes more important.

Stochastic resource allocation in emergency departments with a multi-objective simulation optimization algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yen-Yi; Wu, I-Chin; Chen, Tzu-Li

2017-03-01

The number of emergency cases or emergency room visits rapidly increases annually, thus leading to an imbalance in supply and demand and to the long-term overcrowding of hospital emergency departments (EDs). However, current solutions to increase medical resources and improve the handling of patient needs are either impractical or infeasible in the Taiwanese environment. Therefore, EDs must optimize resource allocation given limited medical resources to minimize the average length of stay of patients and medical resource waste costs. This study constructs a multi-objective mathematical model for medical resource allocation in EDs in accordance with emergency flow or procedure. The proposed mathematical model is complex and difficult to solve because its performance value is stochastic; furthermore, the model considers both objectives simultaneously. Thus, this study develops a multi-objective simulation optimization algorithm by integrating a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) with multi-objective computing budget allocation (MOCBA) to address the challenges of multi-objective medical resource allocation. NSGA II is used to investigate plausible solutions for medical resource allocation, and MOCBA identifies effective sets of feasible Pareto (non-dominated) medical resource allocation solutions in addition to effectively allocating simulation or computation budgets. The discrete event simulation model of ED flow is inspired by a Taiwan hospital case and is constructed to estimate the expected performance values of each medical allocation solution as obtained through NSGA II. Finally, computational experiments are performed to verify the effectiveness and performance of the integrated NSGA II and MOCBA method, as well as to derive non-dominated medical resource allocation solutions from the algorithms.

Trip-oriented stochastic optimal energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric bus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Yongchang; Zhao, Yue; Wang, Qinpu; Zhang, Yuanbo; Xia, Huaicheng

2016-01-01

A trip-oriented stochastic optimal energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric bus is presented in this paper, which includes the offline stochastic dynamic programming part and the online implementation part performed by equivalent consumption minimization strategy. In the offline part, historical driving cycles of the fixed route are divided into segments according to the position of bus stops, and then a segment-based stochastic driving condition model based on Markov chain is built. With the segment-based stochastic model obtained, the control set for real-time implemented equivalent consumption minimization strategy can be achieved by solving the offline stochastic dynamic programming problem. Results of stochastic dynamic programming are converted into a 3-dimensional lookup table of parameters for online implemented equivalent consumption minimization strategy. The proposed strategy is verified by both simulation and hardware-in-loop test of real-world driving cycle on an urban bus route. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms both the well-tuned equivalent consumption minimization strategy and the rule-based strategy in terms of fuel economy, and even proved to be close to the optimal result obtained by dynamic programming. Furthermore, the practical application potential of the proposed control method was proved by hardware-in-loop test. - Highlights: • A stochastic problem was formed based on a stochastic segment-based driving condition model. • Offline stochastic dynamic programming was employed to solve the stochastic problem. • The instant power split decision was made by the online equivalent consumption minimization strategy. • Good performance in fuel economy of the proposed method was verified by simulation results. • Practical application potential of the proposed method was verified by the hardware-in-loop test results.

Time-ordered product expansions for computational stochastic system biology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mjolsness, Eric

2013-01-01

The time-ordered product framework of quantum field theory can also be used to understand salient phenomena in stochastic biochemical networks. It is used here to derive Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) for chemical reaction networks; consequently, the SSA can be interpreted in terms of Feynman diagrams. It is also used here to derive other, more general simulation and parameter-learning algorithms including simulation algorithms for networks of stochastic reaction-like processes operating on parameterized objects, and also hybrid stochastic reaction/differential equation models in which systems of ordinary differential equations evolve the parameters of objects that can also undergo stochastic reactions. Thus, the time-ordered product expansion can be used systematically to derive simulation and parameter-fitting algorithms for stochastic systems. (paper)

Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

2017-12-01

Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

2017-12-21

Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

Hybrid Multilevel Monte Carlo Simulation of Stochastic Reaction Networks

KAUST Repository

Moraes, Alvaro

2015-01-07

Stochastic reaction networks (SRNs) is a class of continuous-time Markov chains intended to describe, from the kinetic point of view, the time-evolution of chemical systems in which molecules of different chemical species undergo a finite set of reaction channels. This talk is based on articles [4, 5, 6], where we are interested in the following problem: given a SRN, X, defined though its set of reaction channels, and its initial state, x0, estimate E (g(X(T))); that is, the expected value of a scalar observable, g, of the process, X, at a fixed time, T. This problem lead us to define a series of Monte Carlo estimators, M, such that, with high probability can produce values close to the quantity of interest, E (g(X(T))). More specifically, given a user-selected tolerance, TOL, and a small confidence level, η, find an estimator, M, based on approximate sampled paths of X, such that, P (|E (g(X(T))) − M| ≤ TOL) ≥ 1 − η; even more, we want to achieve this objective with near optimal computational work. We first introduce a hybrid path-simulation scheme based on the well-known stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA)[3] and the tau-leap method [2]. Then, we introduce a Multilevel Monte Carlo strategy that allows us to achieve a computational complexity of order O(T OL−2), this is the same computational complexity as in an exact method but with a smaller constant. We provide numerical examples to show our results.

Error performance analysis in K-tier uplink cellular networks using a stochastic geometric approach

KAUST Repository

Afify, Laila H.; Elsawy, Hesham; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2015-01-01

-in-Distribution approach that utilizes stochastic geometric tools to account for the network geometry in the performance characterization. Different from the other stochastic geometry models adopted in the literature, the developed analysis accounts for important

Scalable domain decomposition solvers for stochastic PDEs in high performance computing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desai, Ajit; Pettit, Chris; Poirel, Dominique; Sarkar, Abhijit

2017-01-01

Stochastic spectral finite element models of practical engineering systems may involve solutions of linear systems or linearized systems for non-linear problems with billions of unknowns. For stochastic modeling, it is therefore essential to design robust, parallel and scalable algorithms that can efficiently utilize high-performance computing to tackle such large-scale systems. Domain decomposition based iterative solvers can handle such systems. And though these algorithms exhibit excellent scalabilities, significant algorithmic and implementational challenges exist to extend them to solve extreme-scale stochastic systems using emerging computing platforms. Intrusive polynomial chaos expansion based domain decomposition algorithms are extended here to concurrently handle high resolution in both spatial and stochastic domains using an in-house implementation. Sparse iterative solvers with efficient preconditioners are employed to solve the resulting global and subdomain level local systems through multi-level iterative solvers. We also use parallel sparse matrix–vector operations to reduce the floating-point operations and memory requirements. Numerical and parallel scalabilities of these algorithms are presented for the diffusion equation having spatially varying diffusion coefficient modeled by a non-Gaussian stochastic process. Scalability of the solvers with respect to the number of random variables is also investigated.

Calibration of semi-stochastic procedure for simulating high-frequency ground motions

Science.gov (United States)

Seyhan, Emel; Stewart, Jonathan P.; Graves, Robert

2013-01-01

Broadband ground motion simulation procedures typically utilize physics-based modeling at low frequencies, coupled with semi-stochastic procedures at high frequencies. The high-frequency procedure considered here combines deterministic Fourier amplitude spectra (dependent on source, path, and site models) with random phase. Previous work showed that high-frequency intensity measures from this simulation methodology attenuate faster with distance and have lower intra-event dispersion than in empirical equations. We address these issues by increasing crustal damping (Q) to reduce distance attenuation bias and by introducing random site-to-site variations to Fourier amplitudes using a lognormal standard deviation ranging from 0.45 for Mw  100 km).

A micro-macro acceleration method for the Monte Carlo simulation of stochastic differential equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Debrabant, Kristian; Samaey, Giovanni; Zieliński, Przemysław

2017-01-01

We present and analyse a micro-macro acceleration method for the Monte Carlo simulation of stochastic differential equations with separation between the (fast) time-scale of individual trajectories and the (slow) time-scale of the macroscopic function of interest. The algorithm combines short...

Simulations of DSB Yields and Radiation-induced Chromosomal Aberrations in Human Cells Based on the Stochastic Track Structure iIduced by HZE Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Ponomarev, Artem; Plante, Ianik; George, Kerry; Wu, Honglu

2014-01-01

The formation of double-strand breaks (DSBs) and chromosomal aberrations (CAs) is of great importance in radiation research and, specifically, in space applications. We are presenting a new particle track and DNA damage model, in which the particle stochastic track structure is combined with the random walk (RW) structure of chromosomes in a cell nucleus. The motivation for this effort stems from the fact that the model with the RW chromosomes, NASARTI (NASA radiation track image) previously relied on amorphous track structure, while the stochastic track structure model RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks) was focused on more microscopic targets than the entire genome. We have combined chromosomes simulated by RWs with stochastic track structure, which uses nanoscopic dose calculations performed with the Monte-Carlo simulation by RITRACKS in a voxelized space. The new simulations produce the number of DSBs as function of dose and particle fluence for high-energy particles, including iron, carbon and protons, using voxels of 20 nm dimension. The combined model also calculates yields of radiation-induced CAs and unrejoined chromosome breaks in normal and repair deficient cells. The joined computational model is calibrated using the relative frequencies and distributions of chromosomal aberrations reported in the literature. The model considers fractionated deposition of energy to approximate dose rates of the space flight environment. The joined model also predicts of the yields and sizes of translocations, dicentrics, rings, and more complex-type aberrations formed in the G0/G1 cell cycle phase during the first cell division after irradiation. We found that the main advantage of the joined model is our ability to simulate small doses: 0.05-0.5 Gy. At such low doses, the stochastic track structure proved to be indispensable, as the action of individual delta-rays becomes more important.

Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

2014-01-01

Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

Rapid sampling of stochastic displacements in Brownian dynamics simulations with stresslet constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Fiore, Andrew M.; Swan, James W.

2018-01-01

equations of motion leads to a stochastic differential algebraic equation (SDAE) of index 1, which is integrated forward in time using a mid-point integration scheme that implicitly produces stochastic displacements consistent with the fluctuation-dissipation theorem for the constrained system. Calculations for hard sphere dispersions are illustrated and used to explore the performance of the algorithm. An open source, high-performance implementation on graphics processing units capable of dynamic simulations of millions of particles and integrated with the software package HOOMD-blue is used for benchmarking and made freely available in the supplementary material (ftp://ftp.aip.org/epaps/journ_chem_phys/E-JCPSA6-148-012805)

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION FOR BUFFELGRASS (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) PASTURES IN MARIN, N. L., MEXICO

OpenAIRE

José Romualdo Martínez-López; Erasmo Gutierrez-Ornelas; Miguel Angel Barrera-Silva; Rafael Retes-López

2014-01-01

A stochastic simulation model was constructed to determine the response of net primary production of buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) and its dry matter intake by cattle, in Marín, NL, México. Buffelgrass is very important for extensive livestock industry in arid and semiarid areas of northeastern Mexico. To evaluate the behavior of the model by comparing the model results with those reported in the literature was the objective in this experiment. Model simulates the monthly production of...

Stochastic learning in oxide binary synaptic device for neuromorphic computing.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Shimeng; Gao, Bin; Fang, Zheng; Yu, Hongyu; Kang, Jinfeng; Wong, H-S Philip

2013-01-01

Hardware implementation of neuromorphic computing is attractive as a computing paradigm beyond the conventional digital computing. In this work, we show that the SET (off-to-on) transition of metal oxide resistive switching memory becomes probabilistic under a weak programming condition. The switching variability of the binary synaptic device implements a stochastic learning rule. Such stochastic SET transition was statistically measured and modeled for a simulation of a winner-take-all network for competitive learning. The simulation illustrates that with such stochastic learning, the orientation classification function of input patterns can be effectively realized. The system performance metrics were compared between the conventional approach using the analog synapse and the approach in this work that employs the binary synapse utilizing the stochastic learning. The feasibility of using binary synapse in the neurormorphic computing may relax the constraints to engineer continuous multilevel intermediate states and widens the material choice for the synaptic device design.

Monte Carlo simulation of induction time and metastable zone width; stochastic or deterministic?

Science.gov (United States)

Kubota, Noriaki

2018-03-01

The induction time and metastable zone width (MSZW) measured for small samples (say 1 mL or less) both scatter widely. Thus, these two are observed as stochastic quantities. Whereas, for large samples (say 1000 mL or more), the induction time and MSZW are observed as deterministic quantities. The reason for such experimental differences is investigated with Monte Carlo simulation. In the simulation, the time (under isothermal condition) and supercooling (under polythermal condition) at which a first single crystal is detected are defined as the induction time t and the MSZW ΔT for small samples, respectively. The number of crystals just at the moment of t and ΔT is unity. A first crystal emerges at random due to the intrinsic nature of nucleation, accordingly t and ΔT become stochastic. For large samples, the time and supercooling at which the number density of crystals N/V reaches a detector sensitivity (N/V)det are defined as t and ΔT for isothermal and polythermal conditions, respectively. The points of t and ΔT are those of which a large number of crystals have accumulated. Consequently, t and ΔT become deterministic according to the law of large numbers. Whether t and ΔT may stochastic or deterministic in actual experiments should not be attributed to change in nucleation mechanisms in molecular level. It could be just a problem caused by differences in the experimental definition of t and ΔT.

Efficacy of Stochastic Vestibular Stimulation to Improve Locomotor Performance in a Discordant Sensory Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Temple, D. R.; De Dios, Y. E.; Layne, C. S.; Bloomberg, J. J.; Mulavara, A. P.

2016-01-01

Astronauts exposed to microgravity face sensorimotor challenges incurred when readapting to a gravitational environment. Sensorimotor Adaptability (SA) training has been proposed as a countermeasure to improve locomotor performance during re-adaptation, and it is suggested that the benefits of SA training may be further enhanced by improving detection of weak sensory signals via mechanisms such as stochastic resonance when a non-zero level of stochastic white noise based electrical stimulation is applied to the vestibular system (stochastic vestibular stimulation, SVS). The purpose of this study was to test the efficacy of using SVS to improve short-term adaptation in a sensory discordant environment during performance of a locomotor task.

Simulations of Technology-Induced and Crisis-Led Stochastic and Chaotic Fluctuations in Higher Education Processes: A Model and a Case Study for Performance and Expected Employment

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmet, Kara

2015-01-01

This paper presents a simple model of the provision of higher educational services that considers and exemplifies nonlinear, stochastic, and potentially chaotic processes. I use the methods of system dynamics to simulate these processes in the context of a particular sociologically interesting case, namely that of the Turkish higher education…

Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rautman, C.A.; Robey, T.H.

1994-01-01

Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose a secondary set of deterministic geologic features on the overall stratigraphic framework provided by the indictor models

A framework for stochastic simulation of distribution practices for hotel reservations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halkos, George E.; Tsilika, Kyriaki D. [Laboratory of Operations Research, Department of Economics, University of Thessaly, Korai 43, 38 333, Volos (Greece)

2015-03-10

The focus of this study is primarily on the Greek hotel industry. The objective is to design and develop a framework for stochastic simulation of reservation requests, reservation arrivals, cancellations and hotel occupancy with a planning horizon of a tourist season. In Greek hospitality industry there have been two competing policies for reservation planning process up to 2003: reservations coming directly from customers and a reservations management relying on tour operator(s). Recently the Internet along with other emerging technologies has offered the potential to disrupt enduring distribution arrangements. The focus of the study is on the choice of distribution intermediaries. We present an empirical model for the hotel reservation planning process that makes use of a symbolic simulation, Monte Carlo method, as, requests for reservations, cancellations, and arrival rates are all sources of uncertainty. We consider as a case study the problem of determining the optimal booking strategy for a medium size hotel in Skiathos Island, Greece. Probability distributions and parameters estimation result from the historical data available and by following suggestions made in the relevant literature. The results of this study may assist hotel managers define distribution strategies for hotel rooms and evaluate the performance of the reservations management system.

A framework for stochastic simulation of distribution practices for hotel reservations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halkos, George E.; Tsilika, Kyriaki D.

2015-01-01

The focus of this study is primarily on the Greek hotel industry. The objective is to design and develop a framework for stochastic simulation of reservation requests, reservation arrivals, cancellations and hotel occupancy with a planning horizon of a tourist season. In Greek hospitality industry there have been two competing policies for reservation planning process up to 2003: reservations coming directly from customers and a reservations management relying on tour operator(s). Recently the Internet along with other emerging technologies has offered the potential to disrupt enduring distribution arrangements. The focus of the study is on the choice of distribution intermediaries. We present an empirical model for the hotel reservation planning process that makes use of a symbolic simulation, Monte Carlo method, as, requests for reservations, cancellations, and arrival rates are all sources of uncertainty. We consider as a case study the problem of determining the optimal booking strategy for a medium size hotel in Skiathos Island, Greece. Probability distributions and parameters estimation result from the historical data available and by following suggestions made in the relevant literature. The results of this study may assist hotel managers define distribution strategies for hotel rooms and evaluate the performance of the reservations management system

Investigation the performance of 0-D and 3-d combustion simulation softwares for modelling HCCI engine with high air excess ratios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gökhan Coşkun

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this study, performance of zero and three dimensional simulations codes that used for simulate a homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI engine fueled with Primary Reference Fuel PRF (85% iso-octane and 15% n-heptane were investigated. 0-D code, called as SRM Suite (Stochastic Reactor Model which can simulate engine combustion by using stochastic reactor model technique were used. Ansys-Fluent which can simulate computational fluid dynamics (CFD was used for 3-D engine combustion simulations. Simulations were evaluated for both commercial codes in terms of combustion, heat transfer and emissions in a HCCI engine. Chemical kinetic mechanisms which developed by Tsurushima including 33 species and 38 reactions for surrogate PRF fuel were used for combustion simulations. Analysis showed that both codes have advantages over each other.

Techno-economic simulation data based deterministic and stochastic for product engineering research and development BATAN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petrus Zacharias; Abdul Jami

2010-01-01

Researches conducted by Batan's researchers have resulted in a number competences that can be used to produce goods and services, which will be applied to industrial sector. However, there are difficulties how to convey and utilize the R and D products into industrial sector. Evaluation results show that each research result should be completed with techno-economy analysis to obtain the feasibility of a product for industry. Further analysis on multy-product concept, in which one business can produce many main products, will be done. For this purpose, a software package simulating techno-economy I economic feasibility which uses deterministic and stochastic data (Monte Carlo method) was been carried out for multi-product including side product. The programming language used in Visual Basic Studio Net 2003 and SQL as data base processing software. This software applied sensitivity test to identify which investment criteria is sensitive for the prospective businesses. Performance test (trial test) has been conducted and the results are in line with the design requirement, such as investment feasibility and sensitivity displayed deterministically and stochastically. These result can be interpreted very well to support business decision. Validation has been performed using Microsoft Excel (for single product). The result of the trial test and validation show that this package is suitable for demands and is ready for use. (author)

A stochastic model for magnetic dynamics in single-molecule magnets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

López-Ruiz, R., E-mail: rlruiz@ifi.unicamp.br [Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, 13083-859 Campinas (SP) (Brazil); Almeida, P.T. [Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, 13083-859 Campinas (SP) (Brazil); Vaz, M.G.F. [Instituto de Química, Universidade Federal Fluminense, 24020-150 Niterói (RJ) (Brazil); Novak, M.A. [Instituto de Física - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro (RJ) (Brazil); Béron, F.; Pirota, K.R. [Instituto de Física Gleb Wataghin - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, 13083-859 Campinas (SP) (Brazil)

2016-04-01

Hysteresis and magnetic relaxation curves were performed on double well potential systems with quantum tunneling possibility via stochastic simulations. Simulation results are compared with experimental ones using the Mn{sub 12} single-molecule magnet, allowing us to introduce time dependence in the model. Despite being a simple simulation model, it adequately reproduces the phenomenology of a thermally activated quantum tunneling and can be extended to other systems with different parameters. Assuming competition between the reversal modes, thermal (over) and tunneling (across) the anisotropy barrier, a separation of classical and quantum contributions to relaxation time can be obtained. - Highlights: • Single-molecule magnets are modeled using a simple stochastic approach. • Simulation reproduces thermally-activated tunnelling magnetization reversal features. • The time is introduced in hysteresis and relaxation simulations. • We can separate the quantum and classical contributions to decay time.

A stochastic model for the simulation of wind turbine blades in static stall

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bertagnolio, Franck; Rasmussen, Flemming; Sørensen, Niels N.

2010-01-01

The aim of this work is to improve aeroelastic simulation codes by accounting for the unsteady aerodynamic forces that a blade experiences in static stall. A model based on a spectral representation of the aerodynamic lift force is defined. The drag and pitching moment are derived using...... a conditional simulation technique for stochastic processes. The input data for the model can be collected either from measurements or from numerical results from a Computational Fluid Dynamics code for airfoil sections at constant angles of attack. An analysis of such data is provided, which helps to determine...

Stochastic-field cavitation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

2013-01-01

Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian “particles” or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations

Stochastic-field cavitation model

Science.gov (United States)

Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

2013-07-01

Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

Application of stochastic approach based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle inventory (LCI) to the steel process chain: case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bieda, Bogusław

2014-05-15

The purpose of the paper is to present the results of application of stochastic approach based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle inventory (LCI) data of Mittal Steel Poland (MSP) complex in Kraków, Poland. In order to assess the uncertainty, the software CrystalBall® (CB), which is associated with Microsoft® Excel spreadsheet model, is used. The framework of the study was originally carried out for 2005. The total production of steel, coke, pig iron, sinter, slabs from continuous steel casting (CSC), sheets from hot rolling mill (HRM) and blast furnace gas, collected in 2005 from MSP was analyzed and used for MC simulation of the LCI model. In order to describe random nature of all main products used in this study, normal distribution has been applied. The results of the simulation (10,000 trials) performed with the use of CB consist of frequency charts and statistical reports. The results of this study can be used as the first step in performing a full LCA analysis in the steel industry. Further, it is concluded that the stochastic approach is a powerful method for quantifying parameter uncertainty in LCA/LCI studies and it can be applied to any steel industry. The results obtained from this study can help practitioners and decision-makers in the steel production management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Signal Stationarity on Digital Stochastic Measurement Implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Župunski

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the influence of signal stationarity on digital stochastic measurement method implementation. The implementation method is based on stochastic voltage generators, analog adders, low resolution A/D converter, and multipliers and accumulators implemented by Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA. The characteristic of first implementations of digital stochastic measurement was the measurement of stationary signal harmonics over the constant measurement period. Later, digital stochastic measurement was extended and used also when it was necessary to measure timeseries of non-stationary signal over the variable measurement time. The result of measurement is the set of harmonics, which is, in the case of non-stationary signals, the input for calculating digital values of signal in time domain. A theoretical approach to determine measurement uncertainty is presented and the accuracy trends with varying signal-to-noise ratio (SNR are analyzed. Noisy brain potentials (spontaneous and nonspontaneous are selected as an example of real non-stationary signal and its digital stochastic measurement is tested by simulations and experiments. Tests were performed without noise and with adding noise with SNR values of 10dB, 0dB and - 10dB. The results of simulations and experiments are compared versus theory calculations, and comparasion confirms the theory.

Stochastic optimization-based study of dimerization kinetics

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

To this end, we study dimerization kinetics of protein as a model system. We follow the dimerization kinetics using a stochastic simulation algorithm and ... optimization; dimerization kinetics; sensitivity analysis; stochastic simulation ... tion in large molecules and clusters, or the design ..... An unbiased strategy of allocating.

Flow injection analysis simulations and diffusion coefficient determination by stochastic and deterministic optimization methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucza, Witold

2013-07-25

Stochastic and deterministic simulations of dispersion in cylindrical channels on the Poiseuille flow have been presented. The random walk (stochastic) and the uniform dispersion (deterministic) models have been used for computations of flow injection analysis responses. These methods coupled with the genetic algorithm and the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods, respectively, have been applied for determination of diffusion coefficients. The diffusion coefficients of fluorescein sodium, potassium hexacyanoferrate and potassium dichromate have been determined by means of the presented methods and FIA responses that are available in literature. The best-fit results agree with each other and with experimental data thus validating both presented approaches. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

? filtering for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Bo; Wu, Zheng-Guang; Park, Ju H.; Shi, Guodong; Zhang, Ya

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the ? filtering problem for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes. By utilising the martingale theory such as the predictable projection operator and the dual predictable projection operator, this paper transforms the expectation of stochastic integral with respect to the Poisson process into the expectation of Lebesgue integral. Then, based on this, this paper designs an ? filter such that the filtering error system is mean-square asymptotically stable and satisfies a prescribed ? performance level. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme.

Model tracking dual stochastic controller design under irregular internal noises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jong Bok; Heo, Hoon; Cho, Yun Hyun; Ji, Tae Young

2006-01-01

Although many methods about the control of irregular external noise have been introduced and implemented, it is still necessary to design a controller that will be more effective and efficient methods to exclude for various noises. Accumulation of errors due to model tracking, internal noises (thermal noise, shot noise and l/f noise) that come from elements such as resistor, diode and transistor etc. in the circuit system and numerical errors due to digital process often destabilize the system and reduce the system performance. New stochastic controller is adopted to remove those noises using conventional controller simultaneously. Design method of a model tracking dual controller is proposed to improve the stability of system while removing external and internal noises. In the study, design process of the model tracking dual stochastic controller is introduced that improves system performance and guarantees robustness under irregular internal noises which can be created internally. The model tracking dual stochastic controller utilizing F-P-K stochastic control technique developed earlier is implemented to reveal its performance via simulation

Optimising Shovel-Truck Fuel Consumption using Stochastic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Optimising the fuel consumption and truck waiting time can result in significant fuel savings. The paper demonstrates that stochastic simulation is an effective tool for optimising the utilisation of fossil-based fuels in mining and related industries. Keywords: Stochastic, Simulation Modelling, Mining, Optimisation, Shovel-Truck ...

Stochastic diffusion models for substitutable technological innovations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, L.; Hu, B.; Yu, X.

2004-01-01

Based on the analysis of firms' stochastic adoption behaviour, this paper first points out the necessity to build more practical stochastic models. And then, stochastic evolutionary models are built for substitutable innovation diffusion system. Finally, through the computer simulation of the

Application of users’ light-switch stochastic models to dynamic energy simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Camisassi, V.; Fabi, V.; Andersen, Rune Korsholm

2015-01-01

deterministic inputs, due to the uncertain nature of human behaviour. In this paper, new stochastic models of users’ interaction with artificial lighting systems are developed and implemented in the energy simulation software IDA ICE. They were developed from field measurements in an office building in Prague......The design of an innovative building should include building overall energy flows estimation. They are principally related to main six influencing factors (IEA-ECB Annex 53): climate, building envelope and equipment, operation and maintenance, occupant behaviour and indoor environment conditions...

Stochastic simulation of pitting degradation of multi-barrier waste container in the potential repository at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, J.H.; Atkins, J.E.; Andrews, R.W.

1995-01-01

A detailed stochastic waste package degradation simulation model was developed incorporating the humid-air and aqueous general and pitting corrosion models for the carbon steel corrosion-allowance outer barrier and aqueous pitting corrosion model for the Alloy 825 corrosion-resistant inner barrier. The uncertainties in the individual corrosion models were also incorporated to capture the variability in the corrosion degradation among waste packages and among pits in the same waste package. Within the scope of assumptions employed in the simulations, the corrosion modes considered, and the near-field conditions from the drift-scale thermohydrologic model, the results of the waste package performance analyses show that the current waste package design appears to meet the 'controlled design assumption' requirement of waste package performance, which is currently defined as having less than 1% of waste packages breached at 1,000 years. It was shown that, except for the waste packages that fail early, pitting corrosion of the corrosion-resistant inner barrier has a greater control on the failure of waste packages and their subsequent degradation than the outer barrier. Further improvement and substantiation of the inner barrier pitting model (currently based on an elicitation) is necessary in future waste package performance simulation model

Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Kaiyu; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen; Guo, Siyue

2014-02-28

Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

Stochastic production planning for a biofuel supply chain under demand and price uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Awudu, Iddrisu; Zhang, Jun

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The proposed stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model. ► The price of biofuel is modeled as Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). ► The proposed model can be applied in any biofuel supply chain. -- Abstract: In this paper, we propose a stochastic production planning model for a biofuel supply chain under demand and price uncertainties. The supply chain consists of biomass suppliers, biofuel refinery plants and distribution centers. A stochastic linear programming model is proposed within a single-period planning framework to maximize the expected profit. Decisions such as the amount of raw materials purchased, the amount of raw materials consumed and the amount of products produced are considered. Demands of end products are uncertain with known probability distributions. The prices of end products follow Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Benders decomposition (BD) with Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to solve the proposed model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic model and the decomposition algorithm, a representative supply chain for an ethanol plant in North Dakota is considered. To investigate the results of the proposed model, a simulation framework is developed to compare the performances of deterministic model and proposed stochastic model. The results from the simulation indicate the proposed model obtain higher expected profit than the deterministic model under different uncertainty settings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to gain management insight on how profit changes due to the uncertainties affect the model developed.

Stochastic simulation modeling to determine time to detect Bovine Viral Diarrhea antibodies in bulk tank milk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foddai, Alessandro; Enøe, Claes; Krogh, Kaspar

2014-01-01

A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate the time from introduction ofBovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in a herd to detection of antibodies in bulk tank milk(BTM) samples using three ELISAs. We assumed that antibodies could be detected, after afixed threshold prevalence of seroco......A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate the time from introduction ofBovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in a herd to detection of antibodies in bulk tank milk(BTM) samples using three ELISAs. We assumed that antibodies could be detected, after afixed threshold prevalence......, which was the most efficient ELISA, could detect antibodiesin the BTM of a large herd 280 days (95% prediction interval: 218; 568) after a transientlyinfected (TI) milking cow has been introduced into the herd. The estimated time to detectionafter introduction of one PI calf was 111 days (44; 605...

Simulating local measurements on a quantum many-body system with stochastic matrix product states

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gammelmark, Søren; Mølmer, Klaus

2010-01-01

We demonstrate how to simulate both discrete and continuous stochastic evolutions of a quantum many-body system subject to measurements using matrix product states. A particular, but generally applicable, measurement model is analyzed and a simple representation in terms of matrix product operators...... is found. The technique is exemplified by numerical simulations of the antiferromagnetic Heisenberg spin-chain model subject to various instances of the measurement model. In particular, we focus on local measurements with small support and nonlocal measurements, which induce long-range correlations....

Stochastic simulation and decadal prediction of hydroclimate in the Western Himalayas

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, A. W.; Chekroun, M. D.; Cook, E.; D'Arrigo, R.; Ghil, M.; Greene, A. M.; Holsclaw, T.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Lall, U.; Lu, M.; Smyth, P.

2012-12-01

Improved estimates of climate over the next 10 to 50 years are needed for long-term planning in water resource and flood management. However, the task of effectively incorporating the results of climate change research into decision-making face a ``double conflict of scales'': the temporal scales of climate model projections are too long, while their usable spatial scales (global to planetary) are much larger than those needed for actual decision making (at the regional to local level). This work is designed to help tackle this ``double conflict'' in the context of water management over monsoonal Asia, based on dendroclimatic multi-century reconstructions of drought indices and river flows. We identify low-frequency modes of variability with time scales from interannual to interdecadal based on these series, and then generate future scenarios based on (a) empirical model decadal predictions, and (b) stochastic simulations generated with autoregressive models that reproduce the power spectrum of the data. Finally, we consider how such scenarios could be used to develop reservoir optimization models. Results will be presented based on multi-century Upper Indus river discharge reconstructions that exhibit a strong periodicity near 27 years that is shown to yield some retrospective forecasting skill over the 1700-2000 period, at a 15-yr yield time. Stochastic simulations of annual PDSI drought index values over the Upper Indus basin are constructed using Empirical Model Reduction; their power spectra are shown to be quite realistic, with spectral peaks near 5--8 years.

Stochastic Analysis with Financial Applications

CERN Document Server

Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

2011-01-01

Stochastic analysis has a variety of applications to biological systems as well as physical and engineering problems, and its applications to finance and insurance have bloomed exponentially in recent times. The goal of this book is to present a broad overview of the range of applications of stochastic analysis and some of its recent theoretical developments. This includes numerical simulation, error analysis, parameter estimation, as well as control and robustness properties for stochastic equations. This book also covers the areas of backward stochastic differential equations via the (non-li

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

KAUST Repository

Navarro, María

2016-12-26

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakatos, Eszter; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H.

2015-01-01

Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs

Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lakatos, Eszter, E-mail: e.lakatos13@imperial.ac.uk; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H., E-mail: m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, Centre for Integrative Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2015-09-07

Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs.

Enhanced Performance Controller Design for Stochastic Systems by Adding Extra State Estimation onto the Existing Closed Loop Control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Yuyang; Zhang, Qichun; Wang, Hong

2016-08-30

To enhance the performance of the tracking property , this paper presents a novel control algorithm for a class of linear dynamic stochastic systems with unmeasurable states, where the performance enhancement loop is established based on Kalman filter. Without changing the existing closed loop with the PI controller, the compensative controller is designed to minimize the variances of the tracking errors using the estimated states and the propagation of state variances. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems has been analyzed in the mean-square sense. A simulated example is included to show the effectiveness of the presented control algorithm, where encouraging results have been obtained.

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-02-24

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water

On the Use of Information Quality in Stochastic Networked Control Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Madsen, Jacob Theilgaard; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

2017-01-01

Networked control is challenged by stochastic delays that are caused by the communication networks as well as by the approach taken to exchange information about system state and set-points. Combined with stochastic changing information, there is a probability that information at the controller....... This is first analyzed in simulation models for the example system of a wind-farm controller. As simulation analysis is subject to stochastic variability and requires large computational effort, the paper develops a Markov model of a simplified networked control system and uses numerical results from the Markov...... is not matching the true system observation, which we call mismatch probability (mmPr). The hypothesis is that the optimization of certain parameters of networked control systems targeting mmPr is equivalent to the optimization targeting control performance, while the former is practically much easier to conduct...

Experiments and stochastic simulations of lignite coal during pyrolysis and gasification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, I.I.; Gupta, A.K.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Lignite pyrolysis and gasification has been conducted in a semi batch reactor. ► The objective is to understand mechanism of syngas evolution during pyrolysis. ► Stochastic simulations of lignite pyrolysis were conducted using Gillespie algorithm. ► First order, single step mechanism failed to fit cumulative yield of hydrogen. ► Evolution of hydrogen via pyrolysis of gaseous hydrocarbon following bridges scission. -- Abstract: Lignite pyrolysis and gasification has been conducted in a semi batch reactor at reactor temperatures of 800–950 °C in 50 °C intervals. CO 2 has been used as the gasifying agent for gasification experiments. The objective of this investigation is to understand the mechanism of syngas evolution during pyrolysis and to unravel the effect of CO 2 on pyrolysis mechanism. Stochastic simulations of lignite pyrolysis have been conducted using Gillespie algorithm. Two reaction mechanisms have been used in the simulations; first order, single step mechanism and the FLASHCHAIN mechanism. The first order single step mechanism was successful in fitting cumulative yield of CO 2 , CO, CH 4 and other hydrocarbons (C n H m ). The first order, single step failed to fit the cumulative yield of hydrogen, which suggests a more complex mechanism for hydrogen evolution. Evolution of CO 2 , CO, CH 4 , C n H m and H 2 flow rates has been monitored. The only effect of CO 2 on pyrolysis mechanism is promotion of reverse water gas shift reaction for the experiments described here. Methane evolution extended for slightly longer time than other hydrocarbons and hydrogen evolution extended for a slightly longer time than methane. This indicated the evolution of hydrogen via further pyrolysis of aliphatic hydrocarbon. It is also suggested that this step occurs in series after aliphatic hydrocarbons evolution by bridges scission.

Numerical simulations of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with an application to the stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Shaojie; Qian, Min; Qian, Hong; Zhang, Xuejuan

2016-12-01

The stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model is one of the best-known examples of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), in which the electrical potential across a cell membrane, V(t), is coupled with a mesoscopic Markov jump process representing the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels embedded in the membrane. The rates of the channel kinetics, in turn, are voltage-dependent. Due to this interdependence, an accurate and efficient sampling of the time evolution of the hybrid stochastic systems has been challenging. The current exact simulation methods require solving a voltage-dependent hitting time problem for multiple path-dependent intensity functions with random thresholds. This paper proposes a simulation algorithm that approximates an alternative representation of the exact solution by fitting the log-survival function of the inter-jump dwell time, H(t), with a piecewise linear one. The latter uses interpolation points that are chosen according to the time evolution of the H(t), as the numerical solution to the coupled ordinary differential equations of V(t) and H(t). This computational method can be applied to all PDMPs. Pathwise convergence of the approximated sample trajectories to the exact solution is proven, and error estimates are provided. Comparison with a previous algorithm that is based on piecewise constant approximation is also presented.

Stochastic-shielding approximation of Markov chains and its application to efficiently simulate random ion-channel gating.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmandt, Nicolaus T; Galán, Roberto F

2012-09-14

Markov chains provide realistic models of numerous stochastic processes in nature. We demonstrate that in any Markov chain, the change in occupation number in state A is correlated to the change in occupation number in state B if and only if A and B are directly connected. This implies that if we are only interested in state A, fluctuations in B may be replaced with their mean if state B is not directly connected to A, which shortens computing time considerably. We show the accuracy and efficacy of our approximation theoretically and in simulations of stochastic ion-channel gating in neurons.

Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Weight transfer functions for Monte Carlo simulation of coagulation. → Efficient support for single-particle growth processes. → Comparisons to analytic solutions and soot formation problems. → Better numerical accuracy for less common particles. - Abstract: A class of coagulation weight transfer functions is constructed, each member of which leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. These algorithms are based on systems of weighted computational particles and the weight transfer functions are constructed such that the number of computational particles does not change during coagulation events. The algorithms also facilitate the simulation of physical processes that change single particles, such as growth, or other surface reactions. Four members of the algorithm family have been numerically validated by comparison to analytic solutions to simple problems. Numerical experiments have been performed for complex laminar premixed flame systems in which members of the class of stochastic weighted particle methods were compared to each other and to a direct simulation algorithm. Two of the weighted algorithms have been shown to offer performance advantages over the direct simulation algorithm in situations where interest is focused on the larger particles in a system. The extent of this advantage depends on the particular system and on the quantities of interest.

Stochastic porous media modeling and high-resolution schemes for numerical simulation of subsurface immiscible fluid flow transport

Science.gov (United States)

Brantson, Eric Thompson; Ju, Binshan; Wu, Dan; Gyan, Patricia Semwaah

2018-04-01

This paper proposes stochastic petroleum porous media modeling for immiscible fluid flow simulation using Dykstra-Parson coefficient (V DP) and autocorrelation lengths to generate 2D stochastic permeability values which were also used to generate porosity fields through a linear interpolation technique based on Carman-Kozeny equation. The proposed method of permeability field generation in this study was compared to turning bands method (TBM) and uniform sampling randomization method (USRM). On the other hand, many studies have also reported that, upstream mobility weighting schemes, commonly used in conventional numerical reservoir simulators do not accurately capture immiscible displacement shocks and discontinuities through stochastically generated porous media. This can be attributed to high level of numerical smearing in first-order schemes, oftentimes misinterpreted as subsurface geological features. Therefore, this work employs high-resolution schemes of SUPERBEE flux limiter, weighted essentially non-oscillatory scheme (WENO), and monotone upstream-centered schemes for conservation laws (MUSCL) to accurately capture immiscible fluid flow transport in stochastic porous media. The high-order schemes results match well with Buckley Leverett (BL) analytical solution without any non-oscillatory solutions. The governing fluid flow equations were solved numerically using simultaneous solution (SS) technique, sequential solution (SEQ) technique and iterative implicit pressure and explicit saturation (IMPES) technique which produce acceptable numerical stability and convergence rate. A comparative and numerical examples study of flow transport through the proposed method, TBM and USRM permeability fields revealed detailed subsurface instabilities with their corresponding ultimate recovery factors. Also, the impact of autocorrelation lengths on immiscible fluid flow transport were analyzed and quantified. A finite number of lines used in the TBM resulted into visual

Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

Modeling and simulating the adaptive electrical properties of stochastic polymeric 3D networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sigala, R; Smerieri, A; Camorani, P; Schüz, A; Erokhin, V

2013-01-01

Memristors are passive two-terminal circuit elements that combine resistance and memory. Although in theory memristors are a very promising approach to fabricate hardware with adaptive properties, there are only very few implementations able to show their basic properties. We recently developed stochastic polymeric matrices with a functionality that evidences the formation of self-assembled three-dimensional (3D) networks of memristors. We demonstrated that those networks show the typical hysteretic behavior observed in the ‘one input-one output’ memristive configuration. Interestingly, using different protocols to electrically stimulate the networks, we also observed that their adaptive properties are similar to those present in the nervous system. Here, we model and simulate the electrical properties of these self-assembled polymeric networks of memristors, the topology of which is defined stochastically. First, we show that the model recreates the hysteretic behavior observed in the real experiments. Second, we demonstrate that the networks modeled indeed have a 3D instead of a planar functionality. Finally, we show that the adaptive properties of the networks depend on their connectivity pattern. Our model was able to replicate fundamental qualitative behavior of the real organic 3D memristor networks; yet, through the simulations, we also explored other interesting properties, such as the relation between connectivity patterns and adaptive properties. Our model and simulations represent an interesting tool to understand the very complex behavior of self-assembled memristor networks, which can finally help to predict and formulate hypotheses for future experiments. (paper)

Stochastic development regression on non-linear manifolds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kühnel, Line; Sommer, Stefan Horst

2017-01-01

We introduce a regression model for data on non-linear manifolds. The model describes the relation between a set of manifold valued observations, such as shapes of anatomical objects, and Euclidean explanatory variables. The approach is based on stochastic development of Euclidean diffusion...... processes to the manifold. Defining the data distribution as the transition distribution of the mapped stochastic process, parameters of the model, the non-linear analogue of design matrix and intercept, are found via maximum likelihood. The model is intrinsically related to the geometry encoded...... in the connection of the manifold. We propose an estimation procedure which applies the Laplace approximation of the likelihood function. A simulation study of the performance of the model is performed and the model is applied to a real dataset of Corpus Callosum shapes....

Toward Development of a Stochastic Wake Model: Validation Using LES and Turbine Loads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae Sang Moon

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Wind turbines within an array do not experience free-stream undisturbed flow fields. Rather, the flow fields on internal turbines are influenced by wakes generated by upwind unit and exhibit different dynamic characteristics relative to the free stream. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC standard 61400-1 for the design of wind turbines only considers a deterministic wake model for the design of a wind plant. This study is focused on the development of a stochastic model for waked wind fields. First, high-fidelity physics-based waked wind velocity fields are generated using Large-Eddy Simulation (LES. Stochastic characteristics of these LES waked wind velocity field, including mean and turbulence components, are analyzed. Wake-related mean and turbulence field-related parameters are then estimated for use with a stochastic model, using Multivariate Multiple Linear Regression (MMLR with the LES data. To validate the simulated wind fields based on the stochastic model, wind turbine tower and blade loads are generated using aeroelastic simulation for utility-scale wind turbine models and compared with those based directly on the LES inflow. The study’s overall objective is to offer efficient and validated stochastic approaches that are computationally tractable for assessing the performance and loads of turbines operating in wakes.

Impact of wave phase jumps on stochastic heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zasenko, V.I.; Zagorodny, A.G.; Cherniak, O.M.

2016-01-01

Interaction of charged particles with fields of random waves brings about known effects of stochastic acceleration and heating. Jumps of wave phases can increase the intensity of these processes substantially. Numerical simulation of particle heating and acceleration by waves with regular phases, waves with jumping phase and stochastic electric field impulses is performed. Comparison of the results shows that to some extent an impact of phase jumps is similar to the action of separate field impulses. Jumps of phase not only increase the intensity of resonant particle heating but involves in this process non-resonant particles from a wide range of initial velocities

Stochastic Modeling and Simulation of Near-Fault Ground Motions for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering

OpenAIRE

Dabaghi, Mayssa

2014-01-01

A comprehensive parameterized stochastic model of near-fault ground motions in two orthogonal horizontal directions is developed. The proposed model uniquely combines several existing and new sub-models to represent major characteristics of recorded near-fault ground motions. These characteristics include near-fault effects of directivity and fling step; temporal and spectral non-stationarity; intensity, duration and frequency content characteristics; directionality of components, as well as ...

Modelling and performance analysis of clinical pathways using the stochastic process algebra PEPA.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xian; Han, Rui; Guo, Yike; Bradley, Jeremy; Cox, Benita; Dickinson, Robert; Kitney, Richard

2012-01-01

Hospitals nowadays have to serve numerous patients with limited medical staff and equipment while maintaining healthcare quality. Clinical pathway informatics is regarded as an efficient way to solve a series of hospital challenges. To date, conventional research lacks a mathematical model to describe clinical pathways. Existing vague descriptions cannot fully capture the complexities accurately in clinical pathways and hinders the effective management and further optimization of clinical pathways. Given this motivation, this paper presents a clinical pathway management platform, the Imperial Clinical Pathway Analyzer (ICPA). By extending the stochastic model performance evaluation process algebra (PEPA), ICPA introduces a clinical-pathway-specific model: clinical pathway PEPA (CPP). ICPA can simulate stochastic behaviours of a clinical pathway by extracting information from public clinical databases and other related documents using CPP. Thus, the performance of this clinical pathway, including its throughput, resource utilisation and passage time can be quantitatively analysed. A typical clinical pathway on stroke extracted from a UK hospital is used to illustrate the effectiveness of ICPA. Three application scenarios are tested using ICPA: 1) redundant resources are identified and removed, thus the number of patients being served is maintained with less cost; 2) the patient passage time is estimated, providing the likelihood that patients can leave hospital within a specific period; 3) the maximum number of input patients are found, helping hospitals to decide whether they can serve more patients with the existing resource allocation. ICPA is an effective platform for clinical pathway management: 1) ICPA can describe a variety of components (state, activity, resource and constraints) in a clinical pathway, thus facilitating the proper understanding of complexities involved in it; 2) ICPA supports the performance analysis of clinical pathway, thereby assisting

An Exploration Algorithm for Stochastic Simulators Driven by Energy Gradients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasia S. Georgiou

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In recent work, we have illustrated the construction of an exploration geometry on free energy surfaces: the adaptive computer-assisted discovery of an approximate low-dimensional manifold on which the effective dynamics of the system evolves. Constructing such an exploration geometry involves geometry-biased sampling (through both appropriately-initialized unbiased molecular dynamics and through restraining potentials and, machine learning techniques to organize the intrinsic geometry of the data resulting from the sampling (in particular, diffusion maps, possibly enhanced through the appropriate Mahalanobis-type metric. In this contribution, we detail a method for exploring the conformational space of a stochastic gradient system whose effective free energy surface depends on a smaller number of degrees of freedom than the dimension of the phase space. Our approach comprises two steps. First, we study the local geometry of the free energy landscape using diffusion maps on samples computed through stochastic dynamics. This allows us to automatically identify the relevant coarse variables. Next, we use the information garnered in the previous step to construct a new set of initial conditions for subsequent trajectories. These initial conditions are computed so as to explore the accessible conformational space more efficiently than by continuing the previous, unbiased simulations. We showcase this method on a representative test system.

Acting Irrationally to Improve Performance in Stochastic Worlds

Science.gov (United States)

Belavkin, Roman V.

Despite many theories and algorithms for decision-making, after estimating the utility function the choice is usually made by maximising its expected value (the max EU principle). This traditional and 'rational' conclusion of the decision-making process is compared in this paper with several 'irrational' techniques that make choice in Monte-Carlo fashion. The comparison is made by evaluating the performance of simple decision-theoretic agents in stochastic environments. It is shown that not only the random choice strategies can achieve performance comparable to the max EU method, but under certain conditions the Monte-Carlo choice methods perform almost two times better than the max EU. The paper concludes by quoting evidence from recent cognitive modelling works as well as the famous decision-making paradoxes.

Stochastic processes and quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klauder, J.R.

1975-01-01

The author analyses a variety of stochastic processes, namely real time diffusion phenomena, which are analogues of imaginary time quantum theory and convariant imaginary time quantum field theory. He elaborates some standard properties involving probability measures and stochastic variables and considers a simple class of examples. Finally he develops the fact that certain stochastic theories actually exhibit divergences that simulate those of covariant quantum field theory and presents examples of both renormaizable and unrenormalizable behavior. (V.J.C.)

A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Houe, H.

1995-01-01

A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows...... and heifers. All discrete events at the cow level were triggered stochastically. Each cow and heifer was characterized by state variables such as stage of lactation, parity, oestrous status, decision for culling, milk production potential, and immune status for BVDV. The model was controlled by 170 decision...... variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied...

Cyto-Sim: a formal language model and stochastic simulator of membrane-enclosed biochemical processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sedwards, Sean; Mazza, Tommaso

2007-10-15

Compartments and membranes are the basis of cell topology and more than 30% of the human genome codes for membrane proteins. While it is possible to represent compartments and membrane proteins in a nominal way with many mathematical formalisms used in systems biology, few, if any, explicitly model the topology of the membranes themselves. Discrete stochastic simulation potentially offers the most accurate representation of cell dynamics. Since the details of every molecular interaction in a pathway are often not known, the relationship between chemical species in not necessarily best described at the lowest level, i.e. by mass action. Simulation is a form of computer-aided analysis, relying on human interpretation to derive meaning. To improve efficiency and gain meaning in an automatic way, it is necessary to have a formalism based on a model which has decidable properties. We present Cyto-Sim, a stochastic simulator of membrane-enclosed hierarchies of biochemical processes, where the membranes comprise an inner, outer and integral layer. The underlying model is based on formal language theory and has been shown to have decidable properties (Cavaliere and Sedwards, 2006), allowing formal analysis in addition to simulation. The simulator provides variable levels of abstraction via arbitrary chemical kinetics which link to ordinary differential equations. In addition to its compact native syntax, Cyto-Sim currently supports models described as Petri nets, can import all versions of SBML and can export SBML and MATLAB m-files. Cyto-Sim is available free, either as an applet or a stand-alone Java program via the web page (http://www.cosbi.eu/Rpty_Soft_CytoSim.php). Other versions can be made available upon request.

Hybrid stochastic simplifications for multiscale gene networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debussche Arnaud

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic simulation of gene networks by Markov processes has important applications in molecular biology. The complexity of exact simulation algorithms scales with the number of discrete jumps to be performed. Approximate schemes reduce the computational time by reducing the number of simulated discrete events. Also, answering important questions about the relation between network topology and intrinsic noise generation and propagation should be based on general mathematical results. These general results are difficult to obtain for exact models. Results We propose a unified framework for hybrid simplifications of Markov models of multiscale stochastic gene networks dynamics. We discuss several possible hybrid simplifications, and provide algorithms to obtain them from pure jump processes. In hybrid simplifications, some components are discrete and evolve by jumps, while other components are continuous. Hybrid simplifications are obtained by partial Kramers-Moyal expansion 123 which is equivalent to the application of the central limit theorem to a sub-model. By averaging and variable aggregation we drastically reduce simulation time and eliminate non-critical reactions. Hybrid and averaged simplifications can be used for more effective simulation algorithms and for obtaining general design principles relating noise to topology and time scales. The simplified models reproduce with good accuracy the stochastic properties of the gene networks, including waiting times in intermittence phenomena, fluctuation amplitudes and stationary distributions. The methods are illustrated on several gene network examples. Conclusion Hybrid simplifications can be used for onion-like (multi-layered approaches to multi-scale biochemical systems, in which various descriptions are used at various scales. Sets of discrete and continuous variables are treated with different methods and are coupled together in a physically justified approach.

Momentum and Stochastic Momentum for Stochastic Gradient, Newton, Proximal Point and Subspace Descent Methods

KAUST Repository

Loizou, Nicolas

2017-12-27

In this paper we study several classes of stochastic optimization algorithms enriched with heavy ball momentum. Among the methods studied are: stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton, stochastic proximal point and stochastic dual subspace ascent. This is the first time momentum variants of several of these methods are studied. We choose to perform our analysis in a setting in which all of the above methods are equivalent. We prove global nonassymptotic linear convergence rates for all methods and various measures of success, including primal function values, primal iterates (in L2 sense), and dual function values. We also show that the primal iterates converge at an accelerated linear rate in the L1 sense. This is the first time a linear rate is shown for the stochastic heavy ball method (i.e., stochastic gradient descent method with momentum). Under somewhat weaker conditions, we establish a sublinear convergence rate for Cesaro averages of primal iterates. Moreover, we propose a novel concept, which we call stochastic momentum, aimed at decreasing the cost of performing the momentum step. We prove linear convergence of several stochastic methods with stochastic momentum, and show that in some sparse data regimes and for sufficiently small momentum parameters, these methods enjoy better overall complexity than methods with deterministic momentum. Finally, we perform extensive numerical testing on artificial and real datasets, including data coming from average consensus problems.

Momentum and Stochastic Momentum for Stochastic Gradient, Newton, Proximal Point and Subspace Descent Methods

KAUST Repository

Loizou, Nicolas; Richtarik, Peter

2017-01-01

In this paper we study several classes of stochastic optimization algorithms enriched with heavy ball momentum. Among the methods studied are: stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton, stochastic proximal point and stochastic dual subspace ascent. This is the first time momentum variants of several of these methods are studied. We choose to perform our analysis in a setting in which all of the above methods are equivalent. We prove global nonassymptotic linear convergence rates for all methods and various measures of success, including primal function values, primal iterates (in L2 sense), and dual function values. We also show that the primal iterates converge at an accelerated linear rate in the L1 sense. This is the first time a linear rate is shown for the stochastic heavy ball method (i.e., stochastic gradient descent method with momentum). Under somewhat weaker conditions, we establish a sublinear convergence rate for Cesaro averages of primal iterates. Moreover, we propose a novel concept, which we call stochastic momentum, aimed at decreasing the cost of performing the momentum step. We prove linear convergence of several stochastic methods with stochastic momentum, and show that in some sparse data regimes and for sufficiently small momentum parameters, these methods enjoy better overall complexity than methods with deterministic momentum. Finally, we perform extensive numerical testing on artificial and real datasets, including data coming from average consensus problems.

Assessing the potential value for an automated dairy cattle body condition scoring system through stochastic simulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bewley, J.M.; Boehlje, M.D.; Gray, A.W.; Hogeveen, H.; Kenyon, S.J.; Eicher, S.D.; Schutz, M.M.

2010-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm

Application of stochastic approach based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle inventory (LCI) to the steel process chain: Case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bieda, Bogusław

2014-05-01

The purpose of the paper is to present the results of application of stochastic approach based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for life cycle inventory (LCI) data of Mittal Steel Poland (MSP) complex in Kraków, Poland. In order to assess the uncertainty, the software CrystalBall® (CB), which is associated with Microsoft® Excel spreadsheet model, is used. The framework of the study was originally carried out for 2005. The total production of steel, coke, pig iron, sinter, slabs from continuous steel casting (CSC), sheets from hot rolling mill (HRM) and blast furnace gas, collected in 2005 from MSP was analyzed and used for MC simulation of the LCI model. In order to describe random nature of all main products used in this study, normal distribution has been applied. The results of the simulation (10,000 trials) performed with the use of CB consist of frequency charts and statistical reports. The results of this study can be used as the first step in performing a full LCA analysis in the steel industry. Further, it is concluded that the stochastic approach is a powerful method for quantifying parameter uncertainty in LCA/LCI studies and it can be applied to any steel industry. The results obtained from this study can help practitioners and decision-makers in the steel production management. - Highlights: • The benefits of Monte Carlo simulation are examined. • The normal probability distribution is studied. • LCI data on Mittal Steel Poland (MSP) complex in Kraków, Poland dates back to 2005. • This is the first assessment of the LCI uncertainties in the Polish steel industry.

Solving Langevin equation with the stochastic algebraically correlated noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ploszajczak, M.; Srokowski, T.

1996-01-01

Long time tail in the velocity and force autocorrelation function has been found recently in the molecular dynamics simulations of the peripheral collisions of ions. Simulation of those slowly decaying correlations in the stochastic transport theory requires the development of new methods of generating stochastic force of arbitrarily long correlation times. The Markovian process and the multidimensional Kangaroo process which permit describing various algebraic correlated stochastic processes are proposed. (author)

Product Costing in FMT: Comparing Deterministic and Stochastic Models Using Computer-Based Simulation for an Actual Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steen

2000-01-01

This paper expands the traditional product costing technique be including a stochastic form in a complex production process for product costing. The stochastic phenomenon in flesbile manufacturing technologies is seen as an important phenomenon that companies try to decreas og eliminate. DFM has...... been used for evaluating the appropriateness of the firm's production capability. In this paper a simulation model is developed to analyze the relevant cost behaviour with respect to DFM and to develop a more streamlined process in the layout of the manufacturing process....

Stability Criterion of Linear Stochastic Systems Subject to Mixed H2/Passivity Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheung-Chieh Ku

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The H2 control scheme and passivity theory are applied to investigate the stability criterion of continuous-time linear stochastic system subject to mixed performance. Based on the stochastic differential equation, the stochastic behaviors can be described as multiplicative noise terms. For the considered system, the H2 control scheme is applied to deal with the problem on minimizing output energy. And the asymptotical stability of the system can be guaranteed under desired initial conditions. Besides, the passivity theory is employed to constrain the effect of external disturbance on the system. Moreover, the Itô formula and Lyapunov function are used to derive the sufficient conditions which are converted into linear matrix inequality (LMI form for applying convex optimization algorithm. Via solving the sufficient conditions, the state feedback controller can be established such that the asymptotical stability and mixed performance of the system are achieved in the mean square. Finally, the synchronous generator system is used to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed design method.

The Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model: A human reliability analysis tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knee, H.E.

1985-01-01

The Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model is a computerized, stochastic, task-oriented human behavioral model developed to provide estimates of nuclear power plant (NPP) maintenance team performance measures. It is capable of addressing person-machine, person-environment, and person-person relationships, and accounts for interdependencies that exist between the subelements that make up the maintenance task of interest. The primary measures of performance estimated by MAPPS are: 1) the probability of successfully completing the task of interest and 2) the task duration time. MAPPS also estimates a host of other performance indices, including the probability of an undetected error, identification of the most- and least-likely error-prone subelements, and maintenance team stress profiles during task execution

Mathematical analysis and algorithms for efficiently and accurately implementing stochastic simulations of short-term synaptic depression and facilitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark D McDonnell

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The release of neurotransmitter vesicles after arrival of a pre-synaptic action potential at cortical synapses is known to be a stochastic process, as is the availability of vesicles for release. These processes are known to also depend on the recent history of action-potential arrivals, and this can be described in terms of time-varying probabilities of vesicle release. Mathematical models of such synaptic dynamics frequently are based only on the mean number of vesicles released by each pre-synaptic action potential, since if it is assumed there are sufficiently many vesicle sites, then variance is small. However, it has been shown recently that variance across sites can be significant for neuron and network dynamics, and this suggests the potential importance of studying short-term plasticity using simulations that do generate trial-to-trial variability. Therefore, in this paper we study several well-known conceptual models for stochastic availability and release. We state explicitly the random variables that these models describe and propose efficient algorithms for accurately implementing stochastic simulations of these random variables in software or hardware. Our results are complemented by mathematical analysis and statement of pseudo-code algorithms.

Stochastic simulations of normal aging and Werner's syndrome.

KAUST Repository

Qi, Qi

2014-04-26

Human cells typically consist of 23 pairs of chromosomes. Telomeres are repetitive sequences of DNA located at the ends of chromosomes. During cell replication, a number of basepairs are lost from the end of the chromosome and this shortening restricts the number of divisions that a cell can complete before it becomes senescent, or non-replicative. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulations to form a stochastic model of telomere shortening to investigate how telomere shortening affects normal aging. Using this model, we study various hypotheses for the way in which shortening occurs by comparing their impact on aging at the chromosome and cell levels. We consider different types of length-dependent loss and replication probabilities to describe these processes. After analyzing a simple model for a population of independent chromosomes, we simulate a population of cells in which each cell has 46 chromosomes and the shortest telomere governs the replicative potential of the cell. We generalize these simulations to Werner\\'s syndrome, a condition in which large sections of DNA are removed during cell division and, amongst other conditions, results in rapid aging. Since the mechanisms governing the loss of additional basepairs are not known, we use our model to simulate a variety of possible forms for the rate at which additional telomeres are lost per replication and several expressions for how the probability of cell division depends on telomere length. As well as the evolution of the mean telomere length, we consider the standard deviation and the shape of the distribution. We compare our results with a variety of data from the literature, covering both experimental data and previous models. We find good agreement for the evolution of telomere length when plotted against population doubling.

Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments

KAUST Repository

Yin, Guosheng; Ma, Yanyuan; Liang, Faming; Yuan, Ying

2011-01-01

The generalized method of moments (GMM) is a very popular estimation and inference procedure based on moment conditions. When likelihood-based methods are difficult to implement, one can often derive various moment conditions and construct the GMM objective function. However, minimization of the objective function in the GMM may be challenging, especially over a large parameter space. Due to the special structure of the GMM, we propose a new sampling-based algorithm, the stochastic GMM sampler, which replaces the multivariate minimization problem by a series of conditional sampling procedures. We develop the theoretical properties of the proposed iterative Monte Carlo method, and demonstrate its superior performance over other GMM estimation procedures in simulation studies. As an illustration, we apply the stochastic GMM sampler to a Medfly life longevity study. Supplemental materials for the article are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.

Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments

KAUST Repository

Yin, Guosheng

2011-08-16

The generalized method of moments (GMM) is a very popular estimation and inference procedure based on moment conditions. When likelihood-based methods are difficult to implement, one can often derive various moment conditions and construct the GMM objective function. However, minimization of the objective function in the GMM may be challenging, especially over a large parameter space. Due to the special structure of the GMM, we propose a new sampling-based algorithm, the stochastic GMM sampler, which replaces the multivariate minimization problem by a series of conditional sampling procedures. We develop the theoretical properties of the proposed iterative Monte Carlo method, and demonstrate its superior performance over other GMM estimation procedures in simulation studies. As an illustration, we apply the stochastic GMM sampler to a Medfly life longevity study. Supplemental materials for the article are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.

Stochastic synaptic plasticity with memristor crossbar arrays

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan

2016-11-01

Memristive devices have been shown to exhibit slow and stochastic resistive switching behavior under low-voltage, low-current operating conditions. Here we explore such mechanisms to emulate stochastic plasticity in memristor crossbar synapse arrays. Interfaced with integrate-and-fire spiking neurons, the memristive synapse arrays are capable of implementing stochastic forms of spike-timing dependent plasticity which parallel mean-rate models of stochastic learning with binary synapses. We present theory and experiments with spike-based stochastic learning in memristor crossbar arrays, including simplified modeling as well as detailed physical simulation of memristor stochastic resistive switching characteristics due to voltage and current induced filament formation and collapse. © 2016 IEEE.

Stochastic synaptic plasticity with memristor crossbar arrays

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan; Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Neftci, Emre; Cauwenberghs, Gert; Salama, Khaled N.

2016-01-01

Memristive devices have been shown to exhibit slow and stochastic resistive switching behavior under low-voltage, low-current operating conditions. Here we explore such mechanisms to emulate stochastic plasticity in memristor crossbar synapse arrays. Interfaced with integrate-and-fire spiking neurons, the memristive synapse arrays are capable of implementing stochastic forms of spike-timing dependent plasticity which parallel mean-rate models of stochastic learning with binary synapses. We present theory and experiments with spike-based stochastic learning in memristor crossbar arrays, including simplified modeling as well as detailed physical simulation of memristor stochastic resistive switching characteristics due to voltage and current induced filament formation and collapse. © 2016 IEEE.

Stochastic search techniques for post-fault restoration of electrical ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Three stochastic search techniques have been used to find the optimal sequence of operations required to restore supply in an electrical distribution system on the occurrence of a fault. The three techniques are the genetic algorithm,simulated annealing and the tabu search. The performance of these techniques has been ...

Comparative performance of different stochastic methods to simulate drug exposure and variability in a population.

Science.gov (United States)

Tam, Vincent H; Kabbara, Samer

2006-10-01

Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) are increasingly being used to predict the pharmacokinetic variability of antimicrobials in a population. However, various MCS approaches may differ in the accuracy of the predictions. We compared the performance of 3 different MCS approaches using a data set with known parameter values and dispersion. Ten concentration-time profiles were randomly generated and used to determine the best-fit parameter estimates. Three MCS methods were subsequently used to simulate the AUC(0-infinity) of the population, using the central tendency and dispersion of the following in the subject sample: 1) K and V; 2) clearance and V; 3) AUC(0-infinity). In each scenario, 10000 subject simulations were performed. Compared to true AUC(0-infinity) of the population, mean biases by various methods were 1) 58.4, 2) 380.7, and 3) 12.5 mg h L(-1), respectively. Our results suggest that the most realistic MCS approach appeared to be based on the variability of AUC(0-infinity) in the subject sample.

Modeling and simulation of a controlled steam generator in the context of dynamic reliability using a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babykina, Génia; Brînzei, Nicolae; Aubry, Jean-François; Deleuze, Gilles

2016-01-01

The paper proposes a modeling framework to support Monte Carlo simulations of the behavior of a complex industrial system. The aim is to analyze the system dependability in the presence of random events, described by any type of probability distributions. Continuous dynamic evolutions of physical parameters are taken into account by a system of differential equations. Dynamic reliability is chosen as theoretical framework. Based on finite state automata theory, the formal model is built by parallel composition of elementary sub-models using a bottom-up approach. Considerations of a stochastic nature lead to a model called the Stochastic Hybrid Automaton. The Scilab/Scicos open source environment is used for implementation. The case study is carried out on an example of a steam generator of a nuclear power plant. The behavior of the system is studied by exploring its trajectories. Possible system trajectories are analyzed both empirically, using the results of Monte Carlo simulations, and analytically, using the formal system model. The obtained results are show to be relevant. The Stochastic Hybrid Automaton appears to be a suitable tool to address the dynamic reliability problem and to model real systems of high complexity; the bottom-up design provides precision and coherency of the system model. - Highlights: • A part of a nuclear power plant is modeled in the context of dynamic reliability. • Stochastic Hybrid Automaton is used as an input model for Monte Carlo simulations. • The model is formally built using a bottom-up approach. • The behavior of the system is analyzed empirically and analytically. • A formally built SHA shows to be a suitable tool to approach dynamic reliability.

Modelling of diesel spray flames under engine-like conditions using an accelerated Eulerian Stochastic Field method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pang, Kar Mun; Jangi, Mehdi; Bai, Xue-Song

2018-01-01

This paper aims to simulate diesel spray flames across a wide range of engine-like conditions using the Eulerian Stochastic Field probability density function (ESF-PDF) model. The ESF model is coupled with the Chemistry Coordinate Mapping approach to expedite the calculation. A convergence study...... is carried out for a number of stochastic fields at five different conditions, covering both conventional diesel combustion and low-temperature combustion regimes. Ignition delay time, flame lift-off length as well as distributions of temperature and various combustion products are used to evaluate...... the performance of the model. The peak values of these properties generated using thirty-two stochastic fields are found to converge, with a maximum relative difference of 27% as compared to those from a greater number of stochastic fields. The ESF-PDF model with thirty-two stochastic fields performs reasonably...

Final Report: Improved Site Characterization And Storage Prediction Through Stochastic Inversion Of Time-Lapse Geophysical And Geochemical Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramirez, A; Mcnab, W; Hao, Y; White, D; Johnson, J

2011-04-14

During the last months of this project, our project activities have concentrated on four areas: (1) performing a stochastic inversion of pattern 16 seismic data to deduce reservoir bulk/shear moduli and density; the need for this inversion was not anticipated in the original scope of work, (2) performing a stochastic inversion of pattern 16 seismic data to deduce reservoir porosity and permeability, (3) complete the software needed to perform geochemical inversions and (4) use the software to perform stochastic inversion of aqueous chemistry data to deduce mineral volume fractions. This report builds on work described in progress reports previously submitted (Ramirez et al., 2009, 2010, 2011 - reports fulfilled the requirements of deliverables D1-D4) and fulfills deliverable D5: Field-based single-pattern simulations work product. The main challenge with our stochastic inversion approach is its large computational expense, even for single reservoir patterns. We dedicated a significant level of effort to improve computational efficiency but inversions involving multiple patterns were still intractable by project's end. As a result, we were unable to fulfill Deliverable D6: Field-based multi-pattern simulations work product.

A patchwork approach to stochastic simulation: A route towards the analysis of morphology in multiphase systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El Ouassini, Ayoub [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: ayoub.el-ouassini@polymtl.ca; Saucier, Antoine [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, departement de mathematiques et de genie industriel, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: antoine.saucier@polymtl.ca; Marcotte, Denis [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, departement de genie civil, geologique et minier, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: denis.marcotte@polymtl.ca; Favis, Basil D. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, departement de genie chimique, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: basil.favis@polymtl.ca

2008-04-15

We propose a new sequential stochastic simulation approach for black and white images in which we focus on the accurate reproduction of the small scale geometry. Our approach aims at reproducing correctly the connectivity properties and the geometry of clusters which are small with respect to a given length scale called block size. Our method is based on the analysis of statistical relationships between adjacent square pieces of image called blocks. We estimate the transition probabilities between adjacent blocks of pixels in a training image. The simulations are constructed by juxtaposing one by one square blocks of pixels, hence the term patchwork simulations. We compare the performance of patchwork simulations with Strebelle's multipoint simulation algorithm on several types of images of increasing complexity. For images composed of clusters which are small with respect to the block size (e.g. squares, discs and sticks), our patchwork approach produces better results than Strebelle's method. The most noticeable improvement is that the cluster geometry is usually reproduced accurately. The accuracy of the patchwork approach is limited primarily by the block size. Clusters which are significantly larger than the block size are usually not reproduced accurately. As an example, we applied this approach to the analysis of a co-continuous polymer blend morphology as derived from an electron microscope micrograph.

A patchwork approach to stochastic simulation: A route towards the analysis of morphology in multiphase systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Ouassini, Ayoub; Saucier, Antoine; Marcotte, Denis; Favis, Basil D.

2008-01-01

We propose a new sequential stochastic simulation approach for black and white images in which we focus on the accurate reproduction of the small scale geometry. Our approach aims at reproducing correctly the connectivity properties and the geometry of clusters which are small with respect to a given length scale called block size. Our method is based on the analysis of statistical relationships between adjacent square pieces of image called blocks. We estimate the transition probabilities between adjacent blocks of pixels in a training image. The simulations are constructed by juxtaposing one by one square blocks of pixels, hence the term patchwork simulations. We compare the performance of patchwork simulations with Strebelle's multipoint simulation algorithm on several types of images of increasing complexity. For images composed of clusters which are small with respect to the block size (e.g. squares, discs and sticks), our patchwork approach produces better results than Strebelle's method. The most noticeable improvement is that the cluster geometry is usually reproduced accurately. The accuracy of the patchwork approach is limited primarily by the block size. Clusters which are significantly larger than the block size are usually not reproduced accurately. As an example, we applied this approach to the analysis of a co-continuous polymer blend morphology as derived from an electron microscope micrograph

Transport in Stochastic Media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haran, O.; Shvarts, D.; Thieberger, R.

1998-01-01

Classical transport of neutral particles in a binary, scattering, stochastic media is discussed. It is assumed that the cross-sections of the constituent materials and their volume fractions are known. The inner structure of the media is stochastic, but there exist a statistical knowledge about the lump sizes, shapes and arrangement. The transmission through the composite media depends on the specific heterogeneous realization of the media. The current research focuses on the averaged transmission through an ensemble of realizations, frm which an effective cross-section for the media can be derived. The problem of one dimensional transport in stochastic media has been studied extensively [1]. In the one dimensional description of the problem, particles are transported along a line populated with alternating material segments of random lengths. The current work discusses transport in two-dimensional stochastic media. The phenomenon that is unique to the multi-dimensional description of the problem is obstacle bypassing. Obstacle bypassing tends to reduce the opacity of the media, thereby reducing its effective cross-section. The importance of this phenomenon depends on the manner in which the obstacles are arranged in the media. Results of transport simulations in multi-dimensional stochastic media are presented. Effective cross-sections derived from the simulations are compared against those obtained for the one-dimensional problem, and against those obtained from effective multi-dimensional models, which are partially based on a Markovian assumption

Fast stochastic simulation of biochemical reaction systems by alternative formulations of the chemical Langevin equation

KAUST Repository

Mélykúti, Bence

2010-01-01

The Chemical Langevin Equation (CLE), which is a stochastic differential equation driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, acts as a bridge between the discrete stochastic simulation algorithm and the deterministic reaction rate equation when simulating (bio)chemical kinetics. The CLE model is valid in the regime where molecular populations are abundant enough to assume their concentrations change continuously, but stochastic fluctuations still play a major role. The contribution of this work is that we observe and explore that the CLE is not a single equation, but a parametric family of equations, all of which give the same finite-dimensional distribution of the variables. On the theoretical side, we prove that as many Wiener processes are sufficient to formulate the CLE as there are independent variables in the equation, which is just the rank of the stoichiometric matrix. On the practical side, we show that in the case where there are m1 pairs of reversible reactions and m2 irreversible reactions there is another, simple formulation of the CLE with only m1 + m2 Wiener processes, whereas the standard approach uses 2 m1 + m2. We demonstrate that there are considerable computational savings when using this latter formulation. Such transformations of the CLE do not cause a loss of accuracy and are therefore distinct from model reduction techniques. We illustrate our findings by considering alternative formulations of the CLE for a human ether a-go-go related gene ion channel model and the Goldbeter-Koshland switch. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

The Stochastic-Deterministic Transition in Discrete Fracture Network Models and its Implementation in a Safety Assessment Application by Means of Conditional Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Selroos, J. O.; Appleyard, P.; Bym, T.; Follin, S.; Hartley, L.; Joyce, S.; Munier, R.

2015-12-01

In 2011 the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) applied for a license to start construction of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark in Northern Uppland, Sweden. The repository is to be built at approximately 500 m depth in crystalline rock. A stochastic, discrete fracture network (DFN) concept was chosen for interpreting the surface-based (incl. boreholes) data, and for assessing the safety of the repository in terms of groundwater flow and flow pathways to and from the repository. Once repository construction starts, also underground data such as tunnel pilot borehole and tunnel trace data will become available. It is deemed crucial that DFN models developed at this stage honors the mapped structures both in terms of location and geometry, and in terms of flow characteristics. The originally fully stochastic models will thus increase determinism towards the repository. Applying the adopted probabilistic framework, predictive modeling to support acceptance criteria for layout and disposal can be performed with the goal of minimizing risks associated with the repository. This presentation describes and illustrates various methodologies that have been developed to condition stochastic realizations of fracture networks around underground openings using borehole and tunnel trace data, as well as using hydraulic measurements of inflows or hydraulic interference tests. The methodologies, implemented in the numerical simulators ConnectFlow and FracMan/MAFIC, are described in some detail, and verification tests and realistic example cases are shown. Specifically, geometric and hydraulic data are obtained from numerical synthetic realities approximating Forsmark conditions, and are used to test the constraining power of the developed methodologies by conditioning unconditional DFN simulations following the same underlying fracture network statistics. Various metrics are developed to assess how well the conditional simulations compare to

Quasi-continuous stochastic simulation framework for flood modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Moustakis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

Typically, flood modelling in the context of everyday engineering practices is addressed through event-based deterministic tools, e.g., the well-known SCS-CN method. A major shortcoming of such approaches is the ignorance of uncertainty, which is associated with the variability of soil moisture conditions and the variability of rainfall during the storm event.In event-based modeling, the sole expression of uncertainty is the return period of the design storm, which is assumed to represent the acceptable risk of all output quantities (flood volume, peak discharge, etc.). On the other hand, the varying antecedent soil moisture conditions across the basin are represented by means of scenarios (e.g., the three AMC types by SCS),while the temporal distribution of rainfall is represented through standard deterministic patterns (e.g., the alternative blocks method). In order to address these major inconsistencies,simultaneously preserving the simplicity and parsimony of the SCS-CN method, we have developed a quasi-continuous stochastic simulation approach, comprising the following steps: (1) generation of synthetic daily rainfall time series; (2) update of potential maximum soil moisture retention, on the basis of accumulated five-day rainfall; (3) estimation of daily runoff through the SCS-CN formula, using as inputs the daily rainfall and the updated value of soil moisture retention;(4) selection of extreme events and application of the standard SCS-CN procedure for each specific event, on the basis of synthetic rainfall.This scheme requires the use of two stochastic modelling components, namely the CastaliaR model, for the generation of synthetic daily data, and the HyetosMinute model, for the disaggregation of daily rainfall to finer temporal scales. Outcomes of this approach are a large number of synthetic flood events, allowing for expressing the design variables in statistical terms and thus properly evaluating the flood risk.

Evaluation of Monte Carlo electron-Transport algorithms in the integrated Tiger series codes for stochastic-media simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franke, B.C.; Kensek, R.P.; Prinja, A.K.

2013-01-01

Stochastic-media simulations require numerous boundary crossings. We consider two Monte Carlo electron transport approaches and evaluate accuracy with numerous material boundaries. In the condensed-history method, approximations are made based on infinite-medium solutions for multiple scattering over some track length. Typically, further approximations are employed for material-boundary crossings where infinite-medium solutions become invalid. We have previously explored an alternative 'condensed transport' formulation, a Generalized Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck (GBFP) method, which requires no special boundary treatment but instead uses approximations to the electron-scattering cross sections. Some limited capabilities for analog transport and a GBFP method have been implemented in the Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) codes. Improvements have been made to the condensed history algorithm. The performance of the ITS condensed-history and condensed-transport algorithms are assessed for material-boundary crossings. These assessments are made both by introducing artificial material boundaries and by comparison to analog Monte Carlo simulations. (authors)

Stochastic Averaging for Constrained Optimization With Application to Online Resource Allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tianyi; Mokhtari, Aryan; Wang, Xin; Ribeiro, Alejandro; Giannakis, Georgios B.

2017-06-01

Existing approaches to resource allocation for nowadays stochastic networks are challenged to meet fast convergence and tolerable delay requirements. The present paper leverages online learning advances to facilitate stochastic resource allocation tasks. By recognizing the central role of Lagrange multipliers, the underlying constrained optimization problem is formulated as a machine learning task involving both training and operational modes, with the goal of learning the sought multipliers in a fast and efficient manner. To this end, an order-optimal offline learning approach is developed first for batch training, and it is then generalized to the online setting with a procedure termed learn-and-adapt. The novel resource allocation protocol permeates benefits of stochastic approximation and statistical learning to obtain low-complexity online updates with learning errors close to the statistical accuracy limits, while still preserving adaptation performance, which in the stochastic network optimization context guarantees queue stability. Analysis and simulated tests demonstrate that the proposed data-driven approach improves the delay and convergence performance of existing resource allocation schemes.

Management of Industrial Performance Indicators: Regression Analysis and Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Roberto Hernandez Vergara

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Stochastic methods can be used in problem solving and explanation of natural phenomena through the application of statistical procedures. The article aims to associate the regression analysis and systems simulation, in order to facilitate the practical understanding of data analysis. The algorithms were developed in Microsoft Office Excel software, using statistical techniques such as regression theory, ANOVA and Cholesky Factorization, which made it possible to create models of single and multiple systems with up to five independent variables. For the analysis of these models, the Monte Carlo simulation and analysis of industrial performance indicators were used, resulting in numerical indices that aim to improve the goals’ management for compliance indicators, by identifying systems’ instability, correlation and anomalies. The analytical models presented in the survey indicated satisfactory results with numerous possibilities for industrial and academic applications, as well as the potential for deployment in new analytical techniques.

FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis L Chao

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2 and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1 influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Dennis L; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Obenchain, Valerie J; Longini, Ira M

2010-01-29

Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

Stochastic Parameter Development for PORFLOW Simulations of the Hanford AX Tank Farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, C.K.; Baca, R.G.; Conrad, S.H.; Smith, G.A.; Shyr, L.; Wheeler, T.A.

1999-01-01

Parameters have been identified that can be modeled stochastically using PORFLOW and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). These parameters include hydrologic and transport properties in the vadose and saturated zones, as well as source-term parameters and infiltration rates. A number of resources were used to define the parameter distributions, primarily those provided in the Retrieval Performance Evaluation Report (Jacobs, 1998). A linear rank regression was performed on the vadose-zone hydrologic parameters given in Khaleel and Freeman (1995) to determine if correlations existed between pairs of parameters. No strong correlations were found among the vadose-zone hydrologic parameters, and it was recommended that these parameters be sampled independently until future data or analyses reveal a strong correlation or functional relationship between parameters. Other distributions for source-term parameters, infiltration rates, and saturated-zone parameters that are required to stochastically analyze the performance of the AX Tank Farm using LHS/PORFLOW were adapted from distributions and values reported in Jacobs (1998) and other literature sources. Discussions pertaining to the geologic conceptualization, vadose-zone modeling, and saturated-zone modeling of the AX Tank Farm are also presented

Stochastic resonance in models of neuronal ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chialvo, D.R.; Longtin, A.; Mueller-Gerkin, J.

1997-01-01

Two recently suggested mechanisms for the neuronal encoding of sensory information involving the effect of stochastic resonance with aperiodic time-varying inputs are considered. It is shown, using theoretical arguments and numerical simulations, that the nonmonotonic behavior with increasing noise of the correlation measures used for the so-called aperiodic stochastic resonance (ASR) scenario does not rely on the cooperative effect typical of stochastic resonance in bistable and excitable systems. Rather, ASR with slowly varying signals is more properly interpreted as linearization by noise. Consequently, the broadening of the open-quotes resonance curveclose quotes in the multineuron stochastic resonance without tuning scenario can also be explained by this linearization. Computation of the input-output correlation as a function of both signal frequency and noise for the model system further reveals conditions where noise-induced firing with aperiodic inputs will benefit from stochastic resonance rather than linearization by noise. Thus, our study clarifies the tuning requirements for the optimal transduction of subthreshold aperiodic signals. It also shows that a single deterministic neuron can perform as well as a network when biased into a suprathreshold regime. Finally, we show that the inclusion of a refractory period in the spike-detection scheme produces a better correlation between instantaneous firing rate and input signal. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

Importance Sampling for Stochastic Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jegourel, Cyrille; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

2016-01-01

We present an importance sampling framework that combines symbolic analysis and simulation to estimate the probability of rare reachability properties in stochastic timed automata. By means of symbolic exploration, our framework first identifies states that cannot reach the goal. A state-wise cha......We present an importance sampling framework that combines symbolic analysis and simulation to estimate the probability of rare reachability properties in stochastic timed automata. By means of symbolic exploration, our framework first identifies states that cannot reach the goal. A state...

Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race.

Science.gov (United States)

Warnke, Tom; Reinhardt, Oliver; Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-10-01

Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

A new approach to developing and optimizing organization strategy based on stochastic quantitative model of strategic performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Hell

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a highly formalized approach to strategy formulation and optimization of strategic performance through proper resource allocation. A stochastic quantitative model of strategic performance (SQMSP is used to evaluate the efficiency of the strategy developed. The SQMSP follows the theoretical notions of the balanced scorecard (BSC and strategy map methodologies, initially developed by Kaplan and Norton. Parameters of the SQMSP are suggested to be random variables and be evaluated by experts who give two-point (optimistic and pessimistic values and three-point (optimistic, most probable and pessimistic values evaluations. The Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate strategic performance. Having been implemented within a computer application and applied to solve the real problem (planning of an IT-strategy at the Faculty of Economics, University of Split the proposed approach demonstrated its high potential as a basis for development of decision support tools related to strategic planning.

Quantization of dynamical systems and stochastic control theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerra, F.; Morato, L.M.

1982-09-01

In the general framework of stochastic control theory we introduce a suitable form of stochastic action associated to the controlled process. Then a variational principle gives all main features of Nelson's stochastic mechanics. In particular we derive the expression of the current velocity field as the gradient of the phase action. Moreover the stochastic corrections to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation are in agreement with the quantum mechanical form of the Madelung fluid (equivalent to the Schroedinger equation). Therefore stochastic control theory can provide a very simple model simulating quantum mechanical behavior

Project Evaluation and Cash Flow Forecasting by Stochastic Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odd A. Asbjørnsen

1983-10-01

Full Text Available The net present value of a discounted cash flow is used to evaluate projects. It is shown that the LaPlace transform of the cash flow time function is particularly useful when the cash flow profiles may be approximately described by ordinary linear differential equations in time. However, real cash flows are stochastic variables due to the stochastic nature of the disturbances during production.

STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE AND ANALYSIS OF ODI BATTING PERFORMANCE: THE INDIAN CRICKET TEAM, 1989-2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uday Damodaran

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Relative to other team games, the contribution of individual team members to the overall team performance is more easily quantifiable in cricket. Viewing players as securities and the team as a portfolio, cricket thus lends itself better to the use of analytical methods usually employed in the analysis of securities and portfolios. This paper demonstrates the use of stochastic dominance rules, normally used in investment management, to analyze the One Day International (ODI batting performance of Indian cricketers. The data used span the years 1989 to 2005. In dealing with cricketing data the existence of 'not out' scores poses a problem while processing the data. In this paper, using a Bayesian approach, the 'not-out' scores are first replaced with a conditional average. The conditional average that is used represents an estimate of the score that the player would have gone on to score, if the 'not out' innings had been completed. The data thus treated are then used in the stochastic dominance analysis. To use stochastic dominance rules we need to characterize the 'utility' of a batsman. The first derivative of the utility function, with respect to runs scored, of an ODI batsman can safely be assumed to be positive (more runs scored are preferred to less. However, the second derivative needs not be negative (no diminishing marginal utility for runs scored. This means that we cannot clearly specify whether the value attached to an additional run scored is lesser at higher levels of scores. Because of this, only first-order stochastic dominance is used to analyze the performance of the players under consideration. While this has its limitation (specifically, we cannot arrive at a complete utility value for each batsman, the approach does well in describing player performance. Moreover, the results have intuitive appeal

Wave-optics modeling of the optical-transport line for passive optical stochastic cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Andorf, M. B.; Lebedev, V. A.; Piot, P.; Ruan, J.

2018-03-01

Optical stochastic cooling (OSC) is expected to enable fast cooling of dense particle beams. Transition from microwave to optical frequencies enables an achievement of stochastic cooling rates which are orders of magnitude higher than ones achievable with the classical microwave based stochastic cooling systems. A subsystemcritical to the OSC scheme is the focusing optics used to image radiation from the upstream "pickup" undulator to the downstream "kicker" undulator. In this paper, we present simulation results using wave-optics calculation carried out with the SYNCHROTRON RADIATION WORKSHOP (SRW). Our simulations are performed in support to a proof-of-principle experiment planned at the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) at Fermilab. The calculations provide an estimate of the energy kick received by a 100-MeV electron as it propagates in the kicker undulator and interacts with the electromagnetic pulse it radiated at an earlier time while traveling through the pickup undulator.

Paracousti-UQ: A Stochastic 3-D Acoustic Wave Propagation Algorithm.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Preston, Leiph [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-09-01

Acoustic full waveform algorithms, such as Paracousti, provide deterministic solutions in complex, 3-D variable environments. In reality, environmental and source characteristics are often only known in a statistical sense. Thus, to fully characterize the expected sound levels within an environment, this uncertainty in environmental and source factors should be incorporated into the acoustic simulations. Performing Monte Carlo (MC) simulations is one method of assessing this uncertainty, but it can quickly become computationally intractable for realistic problems. An alternative method, using the technique of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE), allows computation of the statistical properties of output signals at a fraction of the computational cost of MC. Paracousti-UQ solves the SPDE system of 3-D acoustic wave propagation equations and provides estimates of the uncertainty of the output simulated wave field (e.g., amplitudes, waveforms) based on estimated probability distributions of the input medium and source parameters. This report describes the derivation of the stochastic partial differential equations, their implementation, and comparison of Paracousti-UQ results with MC simulations using simple models.

The ISI distribution of the stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley neuron.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowat, Peter F; Greenwood, Priscilla E

2014-01-01

The simulation of ion-channel noise has an important role in computational neuroscience. In recent years several approximate methods of carrying out this simulation have been published, based on stochastic differential equations, and all giving slightly different results. The obvious, and essential, question is: which method is the most accurate and which is most computationally efficient? Here we make a contribution to the answer. We compare interspike interval histograms from simulated data using four different approximate stochastic differential equation (SDE) models of the stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley neuron, as well as the exact Markov chain model simulated by the Gillespie algorithm. One of the recent SDE models is the same as the Kurtz approximation first published in 1978. All the models considered give similar ISI histograms over a wide range of deterministic and stochastic input. Three features of these histograms are an initial peak, followed by one or more bumps, and then an exponential tail. We explore how these features depend on deterministic input and on level of channel noise, and explain the results using the stochastic dynamics of the model. We conclude with a rough ranking of the four SDE models with respect to the similarity of their ISI histograms to the histogram of the exact Markov chain model.

Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K.; Byrne, Helen

2015-01-01

Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries

Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spill, Fabian, E-mail: fspill@bu.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston University, 44 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guerrero, Pilar [Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Alarcon, Tomas [Centre de Recerca Matematica, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Atonòma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Maini, Philip K. [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Byrne, Helen [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Computational Biology Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QD (United Kingdom)

2015-10-15

Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries.

Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

2017-12-01

Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal

Simulation-optimization framework for multi-site multi-season hybrid stochastic streamflow modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastav, Roshan; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K. P.

2016-11-01

A simulation-optimization (S-O) framework is developed for the hybrid stochastic modeling of multi-site multi-season streamflows. The multi-objective optimization model formulated is the driver and the multi-site, multi-season hybrid matched block bootstrap model (MHMABB) is the simulation engine within this framework. The multi-site multi-season simulation model is the extension of the existing single-site multi-season simulation model. A robust and efficient evolutionary search based technique, namely, non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm (NSGA - II) is employed as the solution technique for the multi-objective optimization within the S-O framework. The objective functions employed are related to the preservation of the multi-site critical deficit run sum and the constraints introduced are concerned with the hybrid model parameter space, and the preservation of certain statistics (such as inter-annual dependence and/or skewness of aggregated annual flows). The efficacy of the proposed S-O framework is brought out through a case example from the Colorado River basin. The proposed multi-site multi-season model AMHMABB (whose parameters are obtained from the proposed S-O framework) preserves the temporal as well as the spatial statistics of the historical flows. Also, the other multi-site deficit run characteristics namely, the number of runs, the maximum run length, the mean run sum and the mean run length are well preserved by the AMHMABB model. Overall, the proposed AMHMABB model is able to show better streamflow modeling performance when compared with the simulation based SMHMABB model, plausibly due to the significant role played by: (i) the objective functions related to the preservation of multi-site critical deficit run sum; (ii) the huge hybrid model parameter space available for the evolutionary search and (iii) the constraint on the preservation of the inter-annual dependence. Split-sample validation results indicate that the AMHMABB model is

A stochastic six-degree-of-freedom flight simulator for passively controlled high power rockets

OpenAIRE

Box, Simon; Bishop, Christopher M.; Hunt, Hugh

2011-01-01

This paper presents a method for simulating the flight of a passively controlled rocket in six degrees of freedom, and the descent under parachute in three degrees of freedom, Also presented is a method for modelling the uncertainty in both the rocket dynamics and the atmospheric conditions using stochastic parameters and the Monte-Carlo method. Included within this we present a method for quantifying the uncertainty in the atmospheric conditions using historical atmospheric data. The core si...

American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping LI

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.

Final Technical Report "Multiscale Simulation Algorithms for Biochemical Systems"

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petzold, Linda R.

2012-10-25

Biochemical systems are inherently multiscale and stochastic. In microscopic systems formed by living cells, the small numbers of reactant molecules can result in dynamical behavior that is discrete and stochastic rather than continuous and deterministic. An analysis tool that respects these dynamical characteristics is the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA, Gillespie, 1976), a numerical simulation procedure that is essentially exact for chemical systems that are spatially homogeneous or well stirred. Despite recent improvements, as a procedure that simulates every reaction event, the SSA is necessarily inefficient for most realistic problems. There are two main reasons for this, both arising from the multiscale nature of the underlying problem: (1) stiffness, i.e. the presence of multiple timescales, the fastest of which are stable; and (2) the need to include in the simulation both species that are present in relatively small quantities and should be modeled by a discrete stochastic process, and species that are present in larger quantities and are more efficiently modeled by a deterministic differential equation (or at some scale in between). This project has focused on the development of fast and adaptive algorithms, and the fun- damental theory upon which they must be based, for the multiscale simulation of biochemical systems. Areas addressed by this project include: (1) Theoretical and practical foundations for ac- celerated discrete stochastic simulation (tau-leaping); (2) Dealing with stiffness (fast reactions) in an efficient and well-justified manner in discrete stochastic simulation; (3) Development of adaptive multiscale algorithms for spatially homogeneous discrete stochastic simulation; (4) Development of high-performance SSA algorithms.

Analysis of dispatching rules in a stochastic dynamic job shop manufacturing system with sequence-dependent setup times

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Pankaj; Jain, Ajai

2014-12-01

Stochastic dynamic job shop scheduling problem with consideration of sequence-dependent setup times are among the most difficult classes of scheduling problems. This paper assesses the performance of nine dispatching rules in such shop from makespan, mean flow time, maximum flow time, mean tardiness, maximum tardiness, number of tardy jobs, total setups and mean setup time performance measures viewpoint. A discrete event simulation model of a stochastic dynamic job shop manufacturing system is developed for investigation purpose. Nine dispatching rules identified from literature are incorporated in the simulation model. The simulation experiments are conducted under due date tightness factor of 3, shop utilization percentage of 90% and setup times less than processing times. Results indicate that shortest setup time (SIMSET) rule provides the best performance for mean flow time and number of tardy jobs measures. The job with similar setup and modified earliest due date (JMEDD) rule provides the best performance for makespan, maximum flow time, mean tardiness, maximum tardiness, total setups and mean setup time measures.

Alternative Approaches to Technical Efficiency Estimation in the Stochastic Frontier Model

OpenAIRE

Acquah, H. de-Graft; Onumah, E. E.

2014-01-01

Estimating the stochastic frontier model and calculating technical efficiency of decision making units are of great importance in applied production economic works. This paper estimates technical efficiency from the stochastic frontier model using Jondrow, and Battese and Coelli approaches. In order to compare alternative methods, simulated data with sample sizes of 60 and 200 are generated from stochastic frontier model commonly applied to agricultural firms. Simulated data is employed to co...

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION FOR BUFFELGRASS (Cenchrus ciliaris L. PASTURES IN MARIN, N. L., MEXICO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Romualdo Martínez-López

2014-04-01

Full Text Available A stochastic simulation model was constructed to determine the response of net primary production of buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris L. and its dry matter intake by cattle, in Marín, NL, México. Buffelgrass is very important for extensive livestock industry in arid and semiarid areas of northeastern Mexico. To evaluate the behavior of the model by comparing the model results with those reported in the literature was the objective in this experiment. Model simulates the monthly production of dry matter of green grass, as well as its conversion to senescence and dry grass and eventually to mulch, depending on precipitation and temperature. Model also simulates consumption of green and dry grass for cattle. The stocking rate used in the model simulation was 2 hectares per animal unit. Annual production ranged from 4.5 to 10.2 t of dry matter per hectare with annual rainfall of 300 to 704 mm, respectively. Total annual intake required per animal unit was estimated at 3.6 ton. Simulated net primary production coincides with reports in the literature, so the model was evaluated successfully.

Superior memory efficiency of quantum devices for the simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Thomas J.; Gu, Mile

2018-03-01

Continuous-time stochastic processes pervade everyday experience, and the simulation of models of these processes is of great utility. Classical models of systems operating in continuous-time must typically track an unbounded amount of information about past behaviour, even for relatively simple models, enforcing limits on precision due to the finite memory of the machine. However, quantum machines can require less information about the past than even their optimal classical counterparts to simulate the future of discrete-time processes, and we demonstrate that this advantage extends to the continuous-time regime. Moreover, we show that this reduction in the memory requirement can be unboundedly large, allowing for arbitrary precision even with a finite quantum memory. We provide a systematic method for finding superior quantum constructions, and a protocol for analogue simulation of continuous-time renewal processes with a quantum machine.

An Error-Entropy Minimization Algorithm for Tracking Control of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems with Non-Gaussian Variables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Aiping; Guo, Lei; Wang, Hong

2017-07-09

This paper presents an error-entropy minimization tracking control algorithm for a class of dynamic stochastic system. The system is represented by a set of time-varying discrete nonlinear equations with non-Gaussian stochastic input, where the statistical properties of stochastic input are unknown. By using Parzen windowing with Gaussian kernel to estimate the probability densities of errors, recursive algorithms are then proposed to design the controller such that the tracking error can be minimized. The performance of the error-entropy minimization criterion is compared with the mean-square-error minimization in the simulation results.

Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model: description of model content, structure, and sensitivity testing. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siegel, A.I.; Bartter, W.D.; Wolf, J.J.; Knee, H.E.

1984-12-01

This volume of NUREG/CR-3626 presents details of the content, structure, and sensitivity testing of the Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model that was described in summary in volume one of this report. The MAPPS model is a generalized stochastic computer simulation model developed to simulate the performance of maintenance personnel in nuclear power plants. The MAPPS model considers workplace, maintenance technician, motivation, human factors, and task oriented variables to yield predictive information about the effects of these variables on successful maintenance task performance. All major model variables are discussed in detail and their implementation and interactive effects are outlined. The model was examined for disqualifying defects from a number of viewpoints, including sensitivity testing. This examination led to the identification of some minor recalibration efforts which were carried out. These positive results indicate that MAPPS is ready for initial and controlled applications which are in conformity with its purposes

Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Model by Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2013-01-01

The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. We perform the HMC simulations of the SV model for two liquid stock returns traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and measure the volatilities of those stock returns. Then we calculate the accuracy of the volatility measurement using the realized volatility as a proxy of the true volatility and compare the SV model with the GARCH model which is one of other volatility models. Using the accuracy calculated with the realized volatility we find that empirically the SV model performs better than the GARCH model.

Stochastic Systems Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation

CERN Document Server

Grigoriu, Mircea

2012-01-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of both properties of physical systems and the inputs to these systems that needs to be quantified for cost effective and reliable designs. The states of these systems satisfy equations with random entries, referred to as stochastic equations, so that they are random functions of time and/or space. The solution of stochastic equations poses notable technical difficulties that are frequently circumvented by heuristic assumptions at the expense of accuracy and rigor. The main objective of Stochastic Systems is to promoting the development of accurate and efficient methods for solving stochastic equations and to foster interactions between engineers, scientists, and mathematicians. To achieve these objectives Stochastic Systems presents: ·         A clear and brief review of essential concepts on probability theory, random functions, stochastic calculus, Monte Carlo simulation, and functional analysis   ·          Probabilistic models for random variables an...

The Separatrix Algorithm for synthesis and analysis of stochastic simulations with applications in disease modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel J Klein

Full Text Available Decision makers in epidemiology and other disciplines are faced with the daunting challenge of designing interventions that will be successful with high probability and robust against a multitude of uncertainties. To facilitate the decision making process in the context of a goal-oriented objective (e.g., eradicate polio by [Formula: see text], stochastic models can be used to map the probability of achieving the goal as a function of parameters. Each run of a stochastic model can be viewed as a Bernoulli trial in which "success" is returned if and only if the goal is achieved in simulation. However, each run can take a significant amount of time to complete, and many replicates are required to characterize each point in parameter space, so specialized algorithms are required to locate desirable interventions. To address this need, we present the Separatrix Algorithm, which strategically locates parameter combinations that are expected to achieve the goal with a user-specified probability of success (e.g. 95%. Technically, the algorithm iteratively combines density-corrected binary kernel regression with a novel information-gathering experiment design to produce results that are asymptotically correct and work well in practice. The Separatrix Algorithm is demonstrated on several test problems, and on a detailed individual-based simulation of malaria.

Wave-Optics Modeling of the Optical-Transport Line for Passive Optical Stochastic Cooling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andorf, M. B. [NICADD, DeKalb; Lebedev, V. A. [Fermilab; Piot, P. [Fermilab; Ruan, J. [Fermilab

2018-03-01

Optical stochastic cooling (OSC) is expected to enable fast cooling of dense particle beams. Transition from microwave to optical frequencies enables an achievement of stochastic cooling rates which are orders of magnitude higher than ones achievable with the classical microwave based stochastic cooling systems. A subsytem critical to the OSC scheme is the focusing optics used to image radiation from the upstream "pickup" undulator to the downstream "kicker" undulator. In this paper, we present simulation results using wave-optics calculation carried out with the {\\sc Synchrotron Radiation Workshop} (SRW). Our simulations are performed in support to a proof-of-principle experiment planned at the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) at Fermilab. The calculations provide an estimate of the energy kick received by a 100-MeV electron as it propagates in the kicker undulator and interacts with the electromagnetic pulse it radiated at an earlier time while traveling through the pickup undulator.

Introduction to stochastic analysis integrals and differential equations

CERN Document Server

Mackevicius, Vigirdas

2013-01-01

This is an introduction to stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations written in an understandable way for a wide audience, from students of mathematics to practitioners in biology, chemistry, physics, and finances. The presentation is based on the naïve stochastic integration, rather than on abstract theories of measure and stochastic processes. The proofs are rather simple for practitioners and, at the same time, rather rigorous for mathematicians. Detailed application examples in natural sciences and finance are presented. Much attention is paid to simulation diffusion pro

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cruz, Roberto de la; Guerrero, Pilar; Calvo, Juan; Alarcón, Tomás

2017-01-01

of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends existing hybrid methods for reaction–diffusion system. • Our analysis unveils non-trivial macroscopic effects triggered by noise at the level of structuring variables. • Our hybrid method hugely speeds up age-structured SSA simulations while preserving stochastic effects.

Calibration with respect to hydraulic head measurements in stochastic simulation of groundwater flow - a numerical experiment using MATLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eriksson, L.O.; Oppelstrup, J.

1994-12-01

A simulator for 2D stochastic continuum simulation and inverse modelling of groundwater flow has been developed. The simulator is well suited for method evaluation and what-if simulation and written in MATLAB. Conductivity fields are generated by unconditional simulation, conditional simulation on measured conductivities and calibration on both steady-state head measurements and transient head histories. The fields can also include fracture zones and zones with different mean conductivities. Statistics of conductivity fields and particle travel times are recorded in Monte-Carlo simulations. The calibration uses the pilot point technique, an inverse technique proposed by RamaRao and LaVenue. Several Kriging procedures are implemented, among others Kriging neighborhoods. In cases where the expectation of the log-conductivity in the truth field is known the nonbias conditions can be omitted, which will make the variance in the conditionally simulated conductivity fields smaller. A simulation experiment, resembling the initial stages of a site investigation and devised in collaboration with SKB, is performed and interpreted. The results obtained in the present study show less uncertainty than in our preceding study. This is mainly due to the modification of the Kriging procedure but also to the use of more data. Still the large uncertainty in cases of sparse data is apparent. The variogram represents essential characteristics of the conductivity field. Thus, even unconditional simulations take account of important information. Significant improvements in variance by further conditioning will be obtained only as the number of data becomes much larger. 16 refs, 26 figs

Calibration with respect to hydraulic head measurements in stochastic simulation of groundwater flow - a numerical experiment using MATLAB

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eriksson, L O; Oppelstrup, J [Starprog AB (Sweden)

1994-12-01

A simulator for 2D stochastic continuum simulation and inverse modelling of groundwater flow has been developed. The simulator is well suited for method evaluation and what-if simulation and written in MATLAB. Conductivity fields are generated by unconditional simulation, conditional simulation on measured conductivities and calibration on both steady-state head measurements and transient head histories. The fields can also include fracture zones and zones with different mean conductivities. Statistics of conductivity fields and particle travel times are recorded in Monte-Carlo simulations. The calibration uses the pilot point technique, an inverse technique proposed by RamaRao and LaVenue. Several Kriging procedures are implemented, among others Kriging neighborhoods. In cases where the expectation of the log-conductivity in the truth field is known the nonbias conditions can be omitted, which will make the variance in the conditionally simulated conductivity fields smaller. A simulation experiment, resembling the initial stages of a site investigation and devised in collaboration with SKB, is performed and interpreted. The results obtained in the present study show less uncertainty than in our preceding study. This is mainly due to the modification of the Kriging procedure but also to the use of more data. Still the large uncertainty in cases of sparse data is apparent. The variogram represents essential characteristics of the conductivity field. Thus, even unconditional simulations take account of important information. Significant improvements in variance by further conditioning will be obtained only as the number of data becomes much larger. 16 refs, 26 figs.

Adaptive control of chaotic systems with stochastic time varying unknown parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salarieh, Hassan [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: salarieh@mech.sharif.edu; Alasty, Aria [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: aalasti@sharif.edu

2008-10-15

In this paper based on the Lyapunov stability theorem, an adaptive control scheme is proposed for stabilizing the unstable periodic orbits (UPO) of chaotic systems. It is assumed that the chaotic system has some linearly dependent unknown parameters which are stochastically time varying. The stochastic parameters are modeled through the Weiner process derivative. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique it has been applied to the Lorenz, Chen and Rossler dynamical systems, as some case studies. Simulation results indicate that the proposed adaptive controller has a high performance in stabilizing the UPO of chaotic systems in noisy environment.

Stochastic self-propagating star formation in three-dimensional disk galaxy simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Statler, T.; Comins, N.; Smith, B.F.

1983-01-01

Stochastic self-propagating star formation (SSPSF) is a process of forming new stars through the compression of the interstellar medium by supernova shock waves. Coupling this activity with galactic differential rotation produces spiral structure in two-dimensional disk galaxy simulations. In this paper the first results of a three-dimensional SSPSF simulation of disk galaxies are reported. Our model generates less impressive spirals than do the two-dimensional simulations. Although some spirals do appear in equilibrium, more frequently we observe spirals as non-equilibrium states of the models: as the spiral arms evolve, they widen until the spiral structure is no longer discernible. The two free parameters that we vary in this study are the probability of star formation due to a recent, nearby explosion, and the relaxation time for the interstellar medium to return to a condition of maximum star formation after it has been cleared out by an explosion and subsequent star formation. We find that equilibrium spiral structure is formed over a much smaller range of these parameters in our three-dimensional SSPSF models than in similar two-dimensional models. We discuss possible reasons for these results as well as improvements on the model which are being explored

Global behavior analysis for stochastic system of 1,3-PD continuous fermentation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xi; Kliemann, Wolfgang; Li, Chunfa; Feng, Enmin; Xiu, Zhilong

2017-12-01

Global behavior for stochastic system of continuous fermentation in glycerol bio-dissimilation to 1,3-propanediol by Klebsiella pneumoniae is analyzed in this paper. This bioprocess cannot avoid the stochastic perturbation caused by internal and external disturbance which reflect on the growth rate. These negative factors can limit and degrade the achievable performance of controlled systems. Based on multiplicity phenomena, the equilibriums and bifurcations of the deterministic system are analyzed. Then, a stochastic model is presented by a bounded Markov diffusion process. In order to analyze the global behavior, we compute the control sets for the associated control system. The probability distributions of relative supports are also computed. The simulation results indicate that how the disturbed biosystem tend to stationary behavior globally.

A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Verdin, Andrew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico

2018-01-01

We present the application of a parametric stochastic weather generator within a nonstationary context, enabling simulations of weather sequences conditioned on interannual and multi-decadal trends. The generalized linear model framework of the weather generator allows any number of covariates to be included, such as large-scale climate indices, local climate information, seasonal precipitation and temperature, among others. Here we focus on the Salado A basin of the Argentine Pampas as a case study, but the methodology is portable to any region. We include domain-averaged (e.g., areal) seasonal total precipitation and mean maximum and minimum temperatures as covariates for conditional simulation. Areal covariates are motivated by a principal component analysis that indicates the seasonal spatial average is the dominant mode of variability across the domain. We find this modification to be effective in capturing the nonstationarity prevalent in interseasonal precipitation and temperature data. We further illustrate the ability of this weather generator to act as a spatiotemporal downscaler of seasonal forecasts and multidecadal projections, both of which are generally of coarse resolution.

A simulation-based interval two-stage stochastic model for agricultural nonpoint source pollution control through land retirement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, B.; Li, J.B.; Huang, G.H.; Li, H.L.

2006-01-01

This study presents a simulation-based interval two-stage stochastic programming (SITSP) model for agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control through land retirement under uncertain conditions. The modeling framework was established by the development of an interval two-stage stochastic program, with its random parameters being provided by the statistical analysis of the simulation outcomes of a distributed water quality approach. The developed model can deal with the tradeoff between agricultural revenue and 'off-site' water quality concern under random effluent discharge for a land retirement scheme through minimizing the expected value of long-term total economic and environmental cost. In addition, the uncertainties presented as interval numbers in the agriculture-water system can be effectively quantified with the interval programming. By subdividing the whole agricultural watershed into different zones, the most pollution-related sensitive cropland can be identified and an optimal land retirement scheme can be obtained through the modeling approach. The developed method was applied to the Swift Current Creek watershed in Canada for soil erosion control through land retirement. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate the sediment information for this case study. Obtained results indicate that the total economic and environmental cost of the entire agriculture-water system can be limited within an interval value for the optimal land retirement schemes. Meanwhile, a best and worst land retirement scheme was obtained for the study watershed under various uncertainties

Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

2016-04-01

Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

Stochastic Simulation and Forecast of Hydrologic Time Series Based on Probabilistic Chaos Expansion

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Ghaith, M.

2017-12-01

Hydrological processes are characterized by many complex features, such as nonlinearity, dynamics and uncertainty. How to quantify and address such complexities and uncertainties has been a challenging task for water engineers and managers for decades. To support robust uncertainty analysis, an innovative approach for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series is developed is this study. Probabilistic Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are established through probabilistic collocation to tackle uncertainties associated with the parameters of traditional hydrological models. The uncertainties are quantified in model outputs as Hermite polynomials with regard to standard normal random variables. Sequentially, multivariate analysis techniques are used to analyze the complex nonlinear relationships between meteorological inputs (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc.) and the coefficients of the Hermite polynomials. With the established relationships between model inputs and PCE coefficients, forecasts of hydrologic time series can be generated and the uncertainties in the future time series can be further tackled. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study in China and is compared to a traditional stochastic simulation technique, the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method. Results show that the proposed approach can serve as a reliable proxy to complicated hydrological models. It can provide probabilistic forecasting in a more computationally efficient manner, compared to the traditional MCMC method. This work provides technical support for addressing uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling and for enhancing the reliability of hydrological modeling results. Applications of the developed approach can be extended to many other complicated geophysical and environmental modeling systems to support the associated uncertainty quantification and risk analysis.

Effects of Nozzle Diameter on Diesel Spray Flames: A numerical study using an Eulerian Stochastic Field Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pang, Kar Mun; Jangi, Mehdi; Bai, Xue-Song

2017-01-01

The present numerical study aims to assess the performance of an Eulerian Stochastic Field (ESF) model in simulating spray flames produced by three fuel injectors with different nozzle diameters of 100 μm, 180 μm and 363 μm. A comparison to the measurements shows that although the simulated ignit...... serve as an important tool for the simulation of spray flames in marine diesel engines, where fuel injectors with different nozzle diameters are applied for pilot and main injections.......The present numerical study aims to assess the performance of an Eulerian Stochastic Field (ESF) model in simulating spray flames produced by three fuel injectors with different nozzle diameters of 100 μm, 180 μm and 363 μm. A comparison to the measurements shows that although the simulated...... ignition delay times are consistently overestimated, the relative differences remain below 28%. Furthermore, the change of the averaged pressure rise with respect to the variation of nozzle diameter is captured by the model. The simulated flame lift-off lengths also agree with the measurements...

Stochastic reaction-diffusion algorithms for macromolecular crowding

Science.gov (United States)

Sturrock, Marc

2016-06-01

Compartment-based (lattice-based) reaction-diffusion algorithms are often used for studying complex stochastic spatio-temporal processes inside cells. In this paper the influence of macromolecular crowding on stochastic reaction-diffusion simulations is investigated. Reaction-diffusion processes are considered on two different kinds of compartmental lattice, a cubic lattice and a hexagonal close packed lattice, and solved using two different algorithms, the stochastic simulation algorithm and the spatiocyte algorithm (Arjunan and Tomita 2010 Syst. Synth. Biol. 4, 35-53). Obstacles (modelling macromolecular crowding) are shown to have substantial effects on the mean squared displacement and average number of molecules in the domain but the nature of these effects is dependent on the choice of lattice, with the cubic lattice being more susceptible to the effects of the obstacles. Finally, improvements for both algorithms are presented.

Geometric integrators for stochastic rigid body dynamics

KAUST Repository

Tretyakov, Mikhail

2016-01-05

Geometric integrators play an important role in simulating dynamical systems on long time intervals with high accuracy. We will illustrate geometric integration ideas within the stochastic context, mostly on examples of stochastic thermostats for rigid body dynamics. The talk will be mainly based on joint recent work with Rusland Davidchak and Tom Ouldridge.

Geometric integrators for stochastic rigid body dynamics

KAUST Repository

Tretyakov, Mikhail

2016-01-01

Geometric integrators play an important role in simulating dynamical systems on long time intervals with high accuracy. We will illustrate geometric integration ideas within the stochastic context, mostly on examples of stochastic thermostats for rigid body dynamics. The talk will be mainly based on joint recent work with Rusland Davidchak and Tom Ouldridge.

Stochastic dynamic analysis of marine risers considering Gaussian system uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Pinghe; Li, Jun; Hao, Hong; Xia, Yong

2018-03-01

This paper performs the stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers with material uncertainties, i.e. in the mass density and elastic modulus, by using Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and model reduction technique. These uncertainties are assumed having Gaussian distributions. The random mass density and elastic modulus are represented by using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion. The Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion is adopted to represent the vibration response because the covariance of the output is unknown. Model reduction based on the Iterated Improved Reduced System (IIRS) technique is applied to eliminate the PC coefficients of the slave degrees of freedom to reduce the dimension of the stochastic system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is conducted to obtain the reference response statistics. Two numerical examples are studied in this paper. The response statistics from the proposed approach are compared with those from MCS. It is noted that the computational time is significantly reduced while the accuracy is kept. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach for stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers.

e-Dairy: a dynamic and stochastic whole-farm model that predicts biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Baudracco, J; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Holmes, C W; Comeron, E A; Macdonald, K A; Barry, T N

2013-05-01

A whole-farm, stochastic and dynamic simulation model was developed to predict biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems. Several whole-farm models simulate grazing dairy systems, but most of them work at a herd level. This model, named e-Dairy, differs from the few models that work at an animal level, because it allows stochastic behaviour of the genetic merit of individual cows for several traits, namely, yields of milk, fat and protein, live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS) within a whole-farm model. This model accounts for genetic differences between cows, is sensitive to genotype × environment interactions at an animal level and allows pasture growth, milk and supplements price to behave stochastically. The model includes an energy-based animal module that predicts intake at grazing, mammary gland functioning and body lipid change. This whole-farm model simulates a 365-day period for individual cows within a herd, with cow parameters randomly generated on the basis of the mean parameter values, defined as input and variance and co-variances from experimental data sets. The main inputs of e-Dairy are farm area, use of land, type of pasture, type of crops, monthly pasture growth rate, supplements offered, nutritional quality of feeds, herd description including herd size, age structure, calving pattern, BCS and LW at calving, probabilities of pregnancy, average genetic merit and economic values for items of income and costs. The model allows to set management policies to define: dry-off cows (ceasing of lactation), target pre- and post-grazing herbage mass and feed supplementation. The main outputs are herbage dry matter intake, annual pasture utilisation, milk yield, changes in BCS and LW, economic farm profit and return on assets. The model showed satisfactory accuracy of prediction when validated against two data sets from farmlet system experiments. Relative prediction errors were <10% for all variables, and concordance

XMDS2: Fast, scalable simulation of coupled stochastic partial differential equations

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis, Graham R.; Hope, Joseph J.; Johnsson, Mattias T.

2013-01-01

XMDS2 is a cross-platform, GPL-licensed, open source package for numerically integrating initial value problems that range from a single ordinary differential equation up to systems of coupled stochastic partial differential equations. The equations are described in a high-level XML-based script, and the package generates low-level optionally parallelised C++ code for the efficient solution of those equations. It combines the advantages of high-level simulations, namely fast and low-error development, with the speed, portability and scalability of hand-written code. XMDS2 is a complete redesign of the XMDS package, and features support for a much wider problem space while also producing faster code. Program summaryProgram title: XMDS2 Catalogue identifier: AENK_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AENK_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License, version 2 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 872490 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 45522370 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Python and C++. Computer: Any computer with a Unix-like system, a C++ compiler and Python. Operating system: Any Unix-like system; developed under Mac OS X and GNU/Linux. RAM: Problem dependent (roughly 50 bytes per grid point) Classification: 4.3, 6.5. External routines: The external libraries required are problem-dependent. Uses FFTW3 Fourier transforms (used only for FFT-based spectral methods), dSFMT random number generation (used only for stochastic problems), MPI message-passing interface (used only for distributed problems), HDF5, GNU Scientific Library (used only for Bessel-based spectral methods) and a BLAS implementation (used only for non-FFT-based spectral methods). Nature of problem: General coupled initial-value stochastic partial differential equations. Solution method: Spectral method

Stochastic analysis and robust optimization for a deck lid inner panel stamping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hou, Bo; Wang, Wurong; Li, Shuhui; Lin, Zhongqin; Xia, Z. Cedric

2010-01-01

FE-simulation and optimization are widely used in the stamping process to improve design quality and shorten development cycle. However, the current simulation and optimization may lead to non-robust results due to not considering the variation of material and process parameters. In this study, a novel stochastic analysis and robust optimization approach is proposed to improve the stamping robustness, where the uncertainties are involved to reflect manufacturing reality. A meta-model based stochastic analysis method is developed, where FE-simulation, uniform design and response surface methodology (RSM) are used to construct meta-model, based on which Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to predict the influence of input parameters variation on the final product quality. By applying the stochastic analysis, uniform design and RSM, the mean and the standard deviation (SD) of product quality are calculated as functions of the controllable process parameters. The robust optimization model composed of mean and SD is constructed and solved, the result of which is compared with the deterministic one to show its advantages. It is demonstrated that the product quality variations are reduced significantly, and quality targets (reject rate) are achieved under the robust optimal solution. The developed approach offers rapid and reliable results for engineers to deal with potential stamping problems during the early phase of product and tooling design, saving more time and resources.

Improved estimation of hydraulic conductivity by combining stochastically simulated hydrofacies with geophysical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Lin; Gong, Huili; Chen, Yun; Li, Xiaojuan; Chang, Xiang; Cui, Yijiao

2016-03-01

Hydraulic conductivity is a major parameter affecting the output accuracy of groundwater flow and transport models. The most commonly used semi-empirical formula for estimating conductivity is Kozeny-Carman equation. However, this method alone does not work well with heterogeneous strata. Two important parameters, grain size and porosity, often show spatial variations at different scales. This study proposes a method for estimating conductivity distributions by combining a stochastic hydrofacies model with geophysical methods. The Markov chain model with transition probability matrix was adopted to re-construct structures of hydrofacies for deriving spatial deposit information. The geophysical and hydro-chemical data were used to estimate the porosity distribution through the Archie's law. Results show that the stochastic simulated hydrofacies model reflects the sedimentary features with an average model accuracy of 78% in comparison with borehole log data in the Chaobai alluvial fan. The estimated conductivity is reasonable and of the same order of magnitude of the outcomes of the pumping tests. The conductivity distribution is consistent with the sedimentary distributions. This study provides more reliable spatial distributions of the hydraulic parameters for further numerical modeling.

STOCHASTIC GRADIENT METHODS FOR UNCONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Krejić

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This papers presents an overview of gradient based methods for minimization of noisy functions. It is assumed that the objective functions is either given with error terms of stochastic nature or given as the mathematical expectation. Such problems arise in the context of simulation based optimization. The focus of this presentation is on the gradient based Stochastic Approximation and Sample Average Approximation methods. The concept of stochastic gradient approximation of the true gradient can be successfully extended to deterministic problems. Methods of this kind are presented for the data fitting and machine learning problems.

Model selection for integrated pest management with stochasticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Akman, Olcay; Comar, Timothy D; Hrozencik, Daniel

2018-04-07

In Song and Xiang (2006), an integrated pest management model with periodically varying climatic conditions was introduced. In order to address a wider range of environmental effects, the authors here have embarked upon a series of studies resulting in a more flexible modeling approach. In Akman et al. (2013), the impact of randomly changing environmental conditions is examined by incorporating stochasticity into the birth pulse of the prey species. In Akman et al. (2014), the authors introduce a class of models via a mixture of two birth-pulse terms and determined conditions for the global and local asymptotic stability of the pest eradication solution. With this work, the authors unify the stochastic and mixture model components to create further flexibility in modeling the impacts of random environmental changes on an integrated pest management system. In particular, we first determine the conditions under which solutions of our deterministic mixture model are permanent. We then analyze the stochastic model to find the optimal value of the mixing parameter that minimizes the variance in the efficacy of the pesticide. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to show that the corresponding pesticide efficacy determined by this optimization technique is indeed robust. Through numerical simulations we show that permanence can be preserved in our stochastic model. Our study of the stochastic version of the model indicates that our results on the deterministic model provide informative conclusions about the behavior of the stochastic model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electron heat transport in stochastic magnetic layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becoulet, M.; Ghendrih, Ph.; Capes, H.; Grosman, A.

1999-06-01

Progress in the theoretical understanding of the local behaviour of the temperature field in ergodic layer was done in the framework of quasi-linear approach but this quasi-linear theory was not complete since the resonant modes coupling (due to stochasticity) was neglected. The stochastic properties of the magnetic field in the ergodic zone are now taken into account by a non-linear coupling of the temperature modes. The three-dimension heat transfer modelling in the ergodic-divertor configuration is performed by quasi-linear (ERGOT1) and non-linear (ERGOT2) numerical codes. The formalism and theoretical basis of both codes are presented. The most important effect that can be simulated with non-linear code is the averaged temperature profile flattening that occurs in the ergodic zone and the barrier creation that appears near the separatrix during divertor operation. (A.C.)

Stochastic programming and market equilibrium analysis of microgrids energy management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

2016-01-01

Microgrids facilitate optimum utilization of distributed renewable energy, provides better local energy supply, and reduces transmission loss and greenhouse gas emission. Because the uncertainty in energy demand affects the energy demand and supply system, the aim of this research is to develop a stochastic optimization and its market equilibrium for microgrids in the electricity market. Therefore, a two-stage stochastic programming model for microgrids and the market competition model are derived in this paper. In the stochastic model, energy demand and supply uncertainties are considered. Furthermore, a case study of the stochastic model is conducted to simulate the uncertainties on the INER microgrids in Taiwanese market. The optimal investment of the generators and batteries installation and operating strategies are determined under energy demand and supply uncertainties for the INER microgrids. The results show optimal investment and operating strategies for the current INER microgrids are also determined by the proposed two-stage stochastic model in the market. In addition, trade-off between the battery capacity and microgrids performance is investigated. Battery usage and power trading between the microgrids and main grid systems are the functions of battery capacity. - Highlights: • A two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for microgrids. • Market equilibrium analysis of microgrids is conducted. • A case study of the stochastic model is conducted for INER microgrids.

Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

2017-06-01

A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

Numerical Approach to Spatial Deterministic-Stochastic Models Arising in Cell Biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaff, James C; Gao, Fei; Li, Ye; Novak, Igor L; Slepchenko, Boris M

2016-12-01

Hybrid deterministic-stochastic methods provide an efficient alternative to a fully stochastic treatment of models which include components with disparate levels of stochasticity. However, general-purpose hybrid solvers for spatially resolved simulations of reaction-diffusion systems are not widely available. Here we describe fundamentals of a general-purpose spatial hybrid method. The method generates realizations of a spatially inhomogeneous hybrid system by appropriately integrating capabilities of a deterministic partial differential equation solver with a popular particle-based stochastic simulator, Smoldyn. Rigorous validation of the algorithm is detailed, using a simple model of calcium 'sparks' as a testbed. The solver is then applied to a deterministic-stochastic model of spontaneous emergence of cell polarity. The approach is general enough to be implemented within biologist-friendly software frameworks such as Virtual Cell.

Comparative analysis of cogeneration power plants optimization based on stochastic method using superstructure and process simulator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Araujo, Leonardo Rodrigues de [Instituto Federal do Espirito Santo, Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: leoaraujo@ifes.edu.br; Donatelli, Joao Luiz Marcon [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo (UFES), Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: joaoluiz@npd.ufes.br; Silva, Edmar Alino da Cruz [Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica (ITA/CTA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Azevedo, Joao Luiz F. [Instituto de Aeronautica e Espaco (CTA/IAE/ALA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

2010-07-01

Thermal systems are essential in facilities such as thermoelectric plants, cogeneration plants, refrigeration systems and air conditioning, among others, in which much of the energy consumed by humanity is processed. In a world with finite natural sources of fuels and growing energy demand, issues related with thermal system design, such as cost estimative, design complexity, environmental protection and optimization are becoming increasingly important. Therefore the need to understand the mechanisms that degrade energy, improve energy sources use, reduce environmental impacts and also reduce project, operation and maintenance costs. In recent years, a consistent development of procedures and techniques for computational design of thermal systems has occurred. In this context, the fundamental objective of this study is a performance comparative analysis of structural and parametric optimization of a cogeneration system using stochastic methods: genetic algorithm and simulated annealing. This research work uses a superstructure, modelled in a process simulator, IPSEpro of SimTech, in which the appropriate design case studied options are included. Accordingly, the cogeneration system optimal configuration is determined as a consequence of the optimization process, restricted within the configuration options included in the superstructure. The optimization routines are written in MsExcel Visual Basic, in order to work perfectly coupled to the simulator process. At the end of the optimization process, the system optimal configuration, given the characteristics of each specific problem, should be defined. (author)

A cavitation model based on Eulerian stochastic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Magagnato, F.; Dumond, J.

2013-12-01

Non-linear phenomena can often be described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and in particular to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. Firstly, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models

Science.gov (United States)

Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

2012-05-01

Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

2015-01-01

Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

The unsaturated bistable stochastic resonance system.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Wenli; Wang, Juan; Wang, Linze

2013-09-01

We investigated the characteristics of the output saturation of the classical continuous bistable system (saturation bistable system) and its impact on stochastic resonance (SR). We further proposed a piecewise bistable SR system (unsaturated bistable system) and developed the expression of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) using the adiabatic approximation theory. Compared with the saturation bistable system, the SNR is significantly improved in our unsaturated bistable SR system. The numerical simulation showed that the unsaturated bistable system performed better in extracting weak signals from strong background noise than the saturation bistable system.

Dynamics of non-holonomic systems with stochastic transport

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, D. D.; Putkaradze, V.

2018-01-01

This paper formulates a variational approach for treating observational uncertainty and/or computational model errors as stochastic transport in dynamical systems governed by action principles under non-holonomic constraints. For this purpose, we derive, analyse and numerically study the example of an unbalanced spherical ball rolling under gravity along a stochastic path. Our approach uses the Hamilton-Pontryagin variational principle, constrained by a stochastic rolling condition, which we show is equivalent to the corresponding stochastic Lagrange-d'Alembert principle. In the example of the rolling ball, the stochasticity represents uncertainty in the observation and/or error in the computational simulation of the angular velocity of rolling. The influence of the stochasticity on the deterministically conserved quantities is investigated both analytically and numerically. Our approach applies to a wide variety of stochastic, non-holonomically constrained systems, because it preserves the mathematical properties inherited from the variational principle.

Parallel discrete-event simulation of FCFS stochastic queueing networks

Science.gov (United States)

Nicol, David M.

1988-01-01

Physical systems are inherently parallel. Intuition suggests that simulations of these systems may be amenable to parallel execution. The parallel execution of a discrete-event simulation requires careful synchronization of processes in order to ensure the execution's correctness; this synchronization can degrade performance. Largely negative results were recently reported in a study which used a well-known synchronization method on queueing network simulations. Discussed here is a synchronization method (appointments), which has proven itself to be effective on simulations of FCFS queueing networks. The key concept behind appointments is the provision of lookahead. Lookahead is a prediction on a processor's future behavior, based on an analysis of the processor's simulation state. It is shown how lookahead can be computed for FCFS queueing network simulations, give performance data that demonstrates the method's effectiveness under moderate to heavy loads, and discuss performance tradeoffs between the quality of lookahead, and the cost of computing lookahead.

Conversion of a mainframe simulation for maintenance performance to a PC environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D.I.

1991-01-01

A computer-based simulation capable of generating human error probabilities (HEPs) for maintenance activities is presented. The HEPs are suitable for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and are an important source of information for data management systems such as NUCLARR- the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability. (1) The basic computer model MAPPS--the maintenance personnel performance simulation has been developed and validated by the US NRC in order to improve maintenance practices and procedures at nuclear power plants. This model validated previously, has now been implemented and improved, in a PC environment, and renamed MicroMAPPS. The model is stochastically based, able to simulate the performance of 2 to 15 person crews for a variety of maintenance conditions. These conditions include aspects of crew actions as potentially influenced by the task, the environment, or characteristics of the personnel involved. The nature of the software code makes it particularly appropriate for determining changes in HEP rates due to fluctuations in important task, environment,. or personnel parameters. The presentation presents a brief review of the mainframe version of the code and presents a summarization of the enhancements which dramatically change the nature of the human computer interaction

Performance improvement of optical CDMA networks with stochastic artificial bee colony optimization technique

Science.gov (United States)

Panda, Satyasen

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a modified artificial bee colony optimization (ABC) algorithm based on levy flight swarm intelligence referred as artificial bee colony levy flight stochastic walk (ABC-LFSW) optimization for optical code division multiple access (OCDMA) network. The ABC-LFSW algorithm is used to solve asset assignment problem based on signal to noise ratio (SNR) optimization in OCDM networks with quality of service constraints. The proposed optimization using ABC-LFSW algorithm provides methods for minimizing various noises and interferences, regulating the transmitted power and optimizing the network design for improving the power efficiency of the optical code path (OCP) from source node to destination node. In this regard, an optical system model is proposed for improving the network performance with optimized input parameters. The detailed discussion and simulation results based on transmitted power allocation and power efficiency of OCPs are included. The experimental results prove the superiority of the proposed network in terms of power efficiency and spectral efficiency in comparison to networks without any power allocation approach.

H∞ state estimation of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays.

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Haibo; Cao, Jinde; Kurths, Jürgen; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Bashir

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of H ∞ state estimation for a class of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays. Under the framework of Filippov solution, the stochastic memristor-based neural networks are transformed into systems with interval parameters. The present paper is the first to investigate the H ∞ state estimation problem for continuous-time Itô-type stochastic memristor-based neural networks. By means of Lyapunov functionals and some stochastic technique, sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the estimation error system is asymptotically stable in the mean square with a prescribed H ∞ performance. An explicit expression of the state estimator gain is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Compared with other results, our results reduce control gain and control cost effectively. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative radiomics: impact of stochastic effects on textural feature analysis implies the need for standards.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyflot, Matthew J; Yang, Fei; Byrd, Darrin; Bowen, Stephen R; Sandison, George A; Kinahan, Paul E

2015-10-01

Image heterogeneity metrics such as textural features are an active area of research for evaluating clinical outcomes with positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and other modalities. However, the effects of stochastic image acquisition noise on these metrics are poorly understood. We performed a simulation study by generating 50 statistically independent PET images of the NEMA IQ phantom with realistic noise and resolution properties. Heterogeneity metrics based on gray-level intensity histograms, co-occurrence matrices, neighborhood difference matrices, and zone size matrices were evaluated within regions of interest surrounding the lesions. The impact of stochastic variability was evaluated with percent difference from the mean of the 50 realizations, coefficient of variation and estimated sample size for clinical trials. Additionally, sensitivity studies were performed to simulate the effects of patient size and image reconstruction method on the quantitative performance of these metrics. Complex trends in variability were revealed as a function of textural feature, lesion size, patient size, and reconstruction parameters. In conclusion, the sensitivity of PET textural features to normal stochastic image variation and imaging parameters can be large and is feature-dependent. Standards are needed to ensure that prospective studies that incorporate textural features are properly designed to measure true effects that may impact clinical outcomes.

A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

Science.gov (United States)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Bui Quang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

Handbook of simulation optimization

CERN Document Server

Fu, Michael C

2014-01-01

The Handbook of Simulation Optimization presents an overview of the state of the art of simulation optimization, providing a survey of the most well-established approaches for optimizing stochastic simulation models and a sampling of recent research advances in theory and methodology. Leading contributors cover such topics as discrete optimization via simulation, ranking and selection, efficient simulation budget allocation, random search methods, response surface methodology, stochastic gradient estimation, stochastic approximation, sample average approximation, stochastic constraints, variance reduction techniques, model-based stochastic search methods and Markov decision processes. This single volume should serve as a reference for those already in the field and as a means for those new to the field for understanding and applying the main approaches. The intended audience includes researchers, practitioners and graduate students in the business/engineering fields of operations research, management science,...

Trajectory averaging for stochastic approximation MCMC algorithms

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2010-10-01

The subject of stochastic approximation was founded by Robbins and Monro [Ann. Math. Statist. 22 (1951) 400-407]. After five decades of continual development, it has developed into an important area in systems control and optimization, and it has also served as a prototype for the development of adaptive algorithms for on-line estimation and control of stochastic systems. Recently, it has been used in statistics with Markov chain Monte Carlo for solving maximum likelihood estimation problems and for general simulation and optimizations. In this paper, we first show that the trajectory averaging estimator is asymptotically efficient for the stochastic approximation MCMC (SAMCMC) algorithm under mild conditions, and then apply this result to the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm [Liang, Liu and Carroll J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305-320]. The application of the trajectory averaging estimator to other stochastic approximationMCMC algorithms, for example, a stochastic approximation MLE algorithm for missing data problems, is also considered in the paper. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Stochastic modeling of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride attack

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frier, Christian

2004-01-01

For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in expensive maintenance and repair actions. Further, a significant reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. One mode of corrosion initiation is that the chloride content around...... concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by stochastic fields. The paper contains a description of the parameters to be included in a stochastic model and a proposal for the information needed to obtain values for the parameters in order to be able to perform reliability investigations....... The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by simulation. As an example a bridge pier in a marine environment is considered....

Stochastic Modeling of Reinforced Concrete Structures Exposed to Chloride Attack

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frier, Christian

2003-01-01

For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in expensive maintenance and repair actions. Further, a significant reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. One mode of corrosion initiation is that the chloride content around...... concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by stochastic fields. The paper contains a description of the parameters to be included in a stochastic model and a proposal for the information needed to obtain values for the parameters in order to be ab le to perform reliability investigations....... The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by simulation. As an example a bridge pier in a marine environment is considered....

'PSA-SPN' - A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Method Using Stochastic Petri Nets: Application to a Production Line System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel

2009-01-01

The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.

Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojković Milan

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Water resource has become a guarantee for sustainable development on both local and global scales. Exploiting water resources involves development of hydrological models for water management planning. In this paper we present a new stochastic model for generation of mean annul flows. The model is based on historical characteristics of time series of annual flows and consists of the trend component, long-term periodic component and stochastic component. The rest of specified components are model errors which are represented as a random time series. The random time series is generated by the single bootstrap model (SBM. Stochastic ensemble of error terms at the single hydrological station is formed using the SBM method. The ultimate stochastic model gives solutions of annual flows and presents a useful tool for integrated river basin planning and water management studies. The model is applied for ten large European rivers with long observed period. Validation of model results suggests that the stochastic flows simulated by the model can be used for hydrological simulations in river basins.

Sensory optimization by stochastic tuning.

Science.gov (United States)

Jurica, Peter; Gepshtein, Sergei; Tyukin, Ivan; van Leeuwen, Cees

2013-10-01

Individually, visual neurons are each selective for several aspects of stimulation, such as stimulus location, frequency content, and speed. Collectively, the neurons implement the visual system's preferential sensitivity to some stimuli over others, manifested in behavioral sensitivity functions. We ask how the individual neurons are coordinated to optimize visual sensitivity. We model synaptic plasticity in a generic neural circuit and find that stochastic changes in strengths of synaptic connections entail fluctuations in parameters of neural receptive fields. The fluctuations correlate with uncertainty of sensory measurement in individual neurons: The higher the uncertainty the larger the amplitude of fluctuation. We show that this simple relationship is sufficient for the stochastic fluctuations to steer sensitivities of neurons toward a characteristic distribution, from which follows a sensitivity function observed in human psychophysics and which is predicted by a theory of optimal allocation of receptive fields. The optimal allocation arises in our simulations without supervision or feedback about system performance and independently of coupling between neurons, making the system highly adaptive and sensitive to prevailing stimulation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Stochastic synchronization of coupled neural networks with intermittent control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Xinsong; Cao Jinde

2009-01-01

In this Letter, we study the exponential stochastic synchronization problem for coupled neural networks with stochastic noise perturbations. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, inequality techniques, the properties of Weiner process, and adding different intermittent controllers, several sufficient conditions are obtained to ensure exponential stochastic synchronization of coupled neural networks with or without coupling delays under stochastic perturbations. These stochastic synchronization criteria are expressed in terms of several lower-dimensional linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and can be easily verified. Moreover, the results of this Letter are applicable to both directed and undirected weighted networks. A numerical example and its simulations are offered to show the effectiveness of our new results.

Approximating Preemptive Stochastic Scheduling

OpenAIRE

Megow Nicole; Vredeveld Tjark

2009-01-01

We present constant approximative policies for preemptive stochastic scheduling. We derive policies with a guaranteed performance ratio of 2 for scheduling jobs with release dates on identical parallel machines subject to minimizing the sum of weighted completion times. Our policies as well as their analysis apply also to the recently introduced more general model of stochastic online scheduling. The performance guarantee we give matches the best result known for the corresponding determinist...

Stochastic models for atmospheric dispersion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

2003-01-01

Simple stochastic differential equation models have been applied by several researchers to describe the dispersion of tracer particles in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and to form the basis for computer simulations of particle paths. To obtain the drift coefficient, empirical vertical...... positions close to the boundaries. Different rules have been suggested in the literature with justifications based on simulation studies. Herein the relevant stochastic differential equation model is formulated in a particular way. The formulation is based on the marginal transformation of the position...... velocity distributions that depend on height above the ground both with respect to standard deviation and skewness are substituted into the stationary Fokker/Planck equation. The particle position distribution is taken to be uniform *the well/mixed condition( and also a given dispersion coefficient...

Guidelines for the formulation of Lagrangian stochastic models for particle simulations of single-phase and dispersed two-phase turbulent flows

Science.gov (United States)

Minier, Jean-Pierre; Chibbaro, Sergio; Pope, Stephen B.

2014-11-01

In this paper, we establish a set of criteria which are applied to discuss various formulations under which Lagrangian stochastic models can be found. These models are used for the simulation of fluid particles in single-phase turbulence as well as for the fluid seen by discrete particles in dispersed turbulent two-phase flows. The purpose of the present work is to provide guidelines, useful for experts and non-experts alike, which are shown to be helpful to clarify issues related to the form of Lagrangian stochastic models. A central issue is to put forward reliable requirements which must be met by Lagrangian stochastic models and a new element brought by the present analysis is to address the single- and two-phase flow situations from a unified point of view. For that purpose, we consider first the single-phase flow case and check whether models are fully consistent with the structure of the Reynolds-stress models. In the two-phase flow situation, coming up with clear-cut criteria is more difficult and the present choice is to require that the single-phase situation be well-retrieved in the fluid-limit case, elementary predictive abilities be respected and that some simple statistical features of homogeneous fluid turbulence be correctly reproduced. This analysis does not address the question of the relative predictive capacities of different models but concentrates on their formulation since advantages and disadvantages of different formulations are not always clear. Indeed, hidden in the changes from one structure to another are some possible pitfalls which can lead to flaws in the construction of practical models and to physically unsound numerical calculations. A first interest of the present approach is illustrated by considering some models proposed in the literature and by showing that these criteria help to assess whether these Lagrangian stochastic models can be regarded as acceptable descriptions. A second interest is to indicate how future

Guidelines for the formulation of Lagrangian stochastic models for particle simulations of single-phase and dispersed two-phase turbulent flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minier, Jean-Pierre; Chibbaro, Sergio; Pope, Stephen B.

2014-01-01

In this paper, we establish a set of criteria which are applied to discuss various formulations under which Lagrangian stochastic models can be found. These models are used for the simulation of fluid particles in single-phase turbulence as well as for the fluid seen by discrete particles in dispersed turbulent two-phase flows. The purpose of the present work is to provide guidelines, useful for experts and non-experts alike, which are shown to be helpful to clarify issues related to the form of Lagrangian stochastic models. A central issue is to put forward reliable requirements which must be met by Lagrangian stochastic models and a new element brought by the present analysis is to address the single- and two-phase flow situations from a unified point of view. For that purpose, we consider first the single-phase flow case and check whether models are fully consistent with the structure of the Reynolds-stress models. In the two-phase flow situation, coming up with clear-cut criteria is more difficult and the present choice is to require that the single-phase situation be well-retrieved in the fluid-limit case, elementary predictive abilities be respected and that some simple statistical features of homogeneous fluid turbulence be correctly reproduced. This analysis does not address the question of the relative predictive capacities of different models but concentrates on their formulation since advantages and disadvantages of different formulations are not always clear. Indeed, hidden in the changes from one structure to another are some possible pitfalls which can lead to flaws in the construction of practical models and to physically unsound numerical calculations. A first interest of the present approach is illustrated by considering some models proposed in the literature and by showing that these criteria help to assess whether these Lagrangian stochastic models can be regarded as acceptable descriptions. A second interest is to indicate how future

Effects of error feedback on a nonlinear bistable system with stochastic resonance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jian-Long; Zhou Hui

2012-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the effects of error feedback on the output of a nonlinear bistable system with stochastic resonance. The bit error rate is employed to quantify the performance of the system. The theoretical analysis and the numerical simulation are presented. By investigating the performances of the nonlinear systems with different strengths of error feedback, we argue that the presented system may provide guidance for practical nonlinear signal processing

First Swiss building and urban simulation conference. Conference proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zweifel, G.; Citherlet, S.; Afjei, T.; Pahud, D.; Robinson, D.; Schaelin, A.

2010-07-01

These contributions presented at a conference, held in 2009 in Horw, near Lucerne, Switzerland, deal with the simulation of building technical services. Three contribution blocks dealt with thermal and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) simulation, airflow and stochastic modelling and urban simulation. In the thermal and HVAC simulation session, the potential and limitations of building energy performance simulation is examined from an engineering perspective, a parametric study of an air heat exchanger for the cooling of buildings is presented and a comparison of measured and estimated electric energy use and the impact of assumed occupancy patterns is made. Contributions on standard solutions for energy efficient heating and cooling with heat pumps, the validation and certification of dynamic building simulation tools, standards and tools for the energy performance of buildings with a simple chiller model and the system-simulation of a central solar heating plant with seasonal duct storage in Geneva, Switzerland, are presented. In the airflow and stochastic modelling session, the optimisation of air flow in operating theatres is examined, and air-flow phenomena in flats are explained with illustrations of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Also, the comparison of test reference years to stochastically generated time series and a comprehensive stochastic model of window usage are discussed. Contributions on the simulation of air-flow patterns and wind loads on facades and the choice of appropriate simulation techniques for the thermal analysis of double skin facades complete the session. In the final Urban Simulation session, a new CFD approach for urban flow and pollution dispersion simulation is presented, a comprehensive micro-simulation of resource flows for sustainable urban planning, multi-scale modelling of the urban climate and the optimisation of urban energy demands using an evolutionary algorithm are discussed.

Is human failure a stochastic process?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, Ed M.

1997-01-01

Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance

An improved stochastic algorithm for temperature-dependent homogeneous gas phase reactions

CERN Document Server

Kraft, M

2003-01-01

We propose an improved stochastic algorithm for temperature-dependent homogeneous gas phase reactions. By combining forward and reverse reaction rates, a significant gain in computational efficiency is achieved. Two modifications of modelling the temperature dependence (with and without conservation of enthalpy) are introduced and studied quantitatively. The algorithm is tested for the combustion of n-heptane, which is a reference fuel component for internal combustion engines. The convergence of the algorithm is studied by a series of numerical experiments and the computational cost of the stochastic algorithm is compared with the DAE code DASSL. If less accuracy is needed the stochastic algorithm is faster on short simulation time intervals. The new stochastic algorithm is significantly faster than the original direct simulation algorithm in all cases considered.

Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Christensen, Hannah M.; Juricke, Stephan; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, Tim N.

2017-03-01

The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850-2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate - specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

Stochastic cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bisognano, J.; Leemann, C.

1982-03-01

Stochastic cooling is the damping of betatron oscillations and momentum spread of a particle beam by a feedback system. In its simplest form, a pickup electrode detects the transverse positions or momenta of particles in a storage ring, and the signal produced is amplified and applied downstream to a kicker. The time delay of the cable and electronics is designed to match the transit time of particles along the arc of the storage ring between the pickup and kicker so that an individual particle receives the amplified version of the signal it produced at the pick-up. If there were only a single particle in the ring, it is obvious that betatron oscillations and momentum offset could be damped. However, in addition to its own signal, a particle receives signals from other beam particles. In the limit of an infinite number of particles, no damping could be achieved; we have Liouville's theorem with constant density of the phase space fluid. For a finite, albeit large number of particles, there remains a residue of the single particle damping which is of practical use in accumulating low phase space density beams of particles such as antiprotons. It was the realization of this fact that led to the invention of stochastic cooling by S. van der Meer in 1968. Since its conception, stochastic cooling has been the subject of much theoretical and experimental work. The earliest experiments were performed at the ISR in 1974, with the subsequent ICE studies firmly establishing the stochastic cooling technique. This work directly led to the design and construction of the Antiproton Accumulator at CERN and the beginnings of p anti p colliding beam physics at the SPS. Experiments in stochastic cooling have been performed at Fermilab in collaboration with LBL, and a design is currently under development for a anti p accumulator for the Tevatron

QB1 - Stochastic Gene Regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munsky, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-23

Summaries of this presentation are: (1) Stochastic fluctuations or 'noise' is present in the cell - Random motion and competition between reactants, Low copy, quantization of reactants, Upstream processes; (2) Fluctuations may be very important - Cell-to-cell variability, Cell fate decisions (switches), Signal amplification or damping, stochastic resonances; and (3) Some tools are available to mode these - Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations (SSA and variants), Moment approximation methods, Finite State Projection. We will see how modeling these reactions can tell us more about the underlying processes of gene regulation.

Stochastic Optimal Dispatch of Virtual Power Plant considering Correlation of Distributed Generations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Yu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Virtual power plant (VPP is an aggregation of multiple distributed generations, energy storage, and controllable loads. Affected by natural conditions, the uncontrollable distributed generations within VPP, such as wind and photovoltaic generations, are extremely random and relative. Considering the randomness and its correlation of uncontrollable distributed generations, this paper constructs the chance constraints stochastic optimal dispatch of VPP including stochastic variables and its random correlation. The probability distributions of independent wind and photovoltaic generations are described by empirical distribution functions, and their joint probability density model is established by Frank-copula function. And then, sample average approximation (SAA is applied to convert the chance constrained stochastic optimization model into a deterministic optimization model. Simulation cases are calculated based on the AIMMS. Simulation results of this paper mathematic model are compared with the results of deterministic optimization model without stochastic variables and stochastic optimization considering stochastic variables but not random correlation. Furthermore, this paper analyzes how SAA sampling frequency and the confidence level influence the results of stochastic optimization. The numerical example results show the effectiveness of the stochastic optimal dispatch of VPP considering the randomness and its correlations of distributed generations.

A combined stochastic analysis of mean daily temperature and diurnal temperature range

Science.gov (United States)

Sirangelo, B.; Caloiero, T.; Coscarelli, R.; Ferrari, E.

2018-03-01

In this paper, a stochastic model, previously proposed for the maximum daily temperature, has been improved for the combined analysis of mean daily temperature and diurnal temperature range. In particular, the procedure applied to each variable sequentially performs the deseasonalization, by means of truncated Fourier series expansions, and the normalization of the temperature data, with the use of proper transformation functions. Then, a joint stochastic analysis of both the climatic variables has been performed by means of a FARIMA model, taking into account the stochastic dependency between the variables, namely introducing a cross-correlation between the standardized noises. The model has been applied to five daily temperature series of southern Italy. After the application of a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, the return periods of the joint behavior of the mean daily temperature and the diurnal temperature range have been evaluated. Moreover, the annual maxima of the temperature excursions in consecutive days have been analyzed for the synthetic series. The results obtained showed different behaviors probably linked to the distance from the sea and to the latitude of the station.

NUMERICAL FLOW AND TRANSPORT SIMULATIONS SUPPORTING THE SALTSTONE FACILITY PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flach, G.

2009-02-28

The Saltstone Disposal Facility Performance Assessment (PA) is being revised to incorporate requirements of Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA), and updated data and understanding of vault performance since the 1992 PA (Cook and Fowler 1992) and related Special Analyses. A hybrid approach was chosen for modeling contaminant transport from vaults and future disposal cells to exposure points. A higher resolution, largely deterministic, analysis is performed on a best-estimate Base Case scenario using the PORFLOW numerical analysis code. a few additional sensitivity cases are simulated to examine alternative scenarios and parameter settings. Stochastic analysis is performed on a simpler representation of the SDF system using the GoldSim code to estimate uncertainty and sensitivity about the Base Case. This report describes development of PORFLOW models supporting the SDF PA, and presents sample results to illustrate model behaviors and define impacts relative to key facility performance objectives. The SDF PA document, when issued, should be consulted for a comprehensive presentation of results.

StochPy: A Comprehensive, User-Friendly Tool for Simulating Stochastic Biological Processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

T.R. Maarleveld (Timo); B.G. Olivier (Brett); F.J. Bruggeman (Frank)

2013-01-01

htmlabstractSingle-cell and single-molecule measurements indicate the importance of stochastic phenomena in cell biology. Stochasticity creates spontaneous differences in the copy numbers of key macromolecules and the timing of reaction events between genetically-identical cells. Mathematical models

Stochastic mixed-mode oscillations in a three-species predator-prey model

Science.gov (United States)

Sadhu, Susmita; Kuehn, Christian

2018-03-01

The effect of demographic stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with one fast and two slow variables is studied. We derive the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a discrete model. For suitable parameter values, the deterministic drift part of the model admits a folded node singularity and exhibits a singular Hopf bifurcation. We focus on the parameter regime near the Hopf bifurcation, where small amplitude oscillations exist as stable dynamics in the absence of noise. In this regime, the stochastic model admits noise-driven mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs), which capture the intermediate dynamics between two cycles of population outbreaks. We perform numerical simulations to calculate the distribution of the random number of small oscillations between successive spikes for varying noise intensities and distance to the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the effect of noise on a suitable Poincaré map. Finally, we prove that the stochastic model can be transformed into a normal form near the folded node, which can be linked to recent results on the interplay between deterministic and stochastic small amplitude oscillations. The normal form can also be used to study the parameter influence on the noise level near folded singularities.

Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Kok Foong; Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

2015-01-01

Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Kok Foong [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang [Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin (Germany); Kraft, Markus, E-mail: mk306@cam.ac.uk [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, Singapore, 637459 (Singapore)

2015-12-15

Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

Numerical studies of the stochastic Korteweg-de Vries equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin Guang; Grinberg, Leopold; Karniadakis, George Em

2006-01-01

We present numerical solutions of the stochastic Korteweg-de Vries equation for three cases corresponding to additive time-dependent noise, multiplicative space-dependent noise and a combination of the two. We employ polynomial chaos for discretization in random space, and discontinuous Galerkin and finite difference for discretization in physical space. The accuracy of the stochastic solutions is investigated by comparing the first two moments against analytical and Monte Carlo simulation results. Of particular interest is the interplay of spatial discretization error with the stochastic approximation error, which is examined for different orders of spatial and stochastic approximation

Stochastic light-cone CTMRG: a new DMRG approach to stochastic models 02.50.Ey Stochastic processes; 64.60.Ht Dynamic critical phenomena; 02.70.-c Computational techniques; 05.10.Cc Renormalization group methods;

CERN Document Server

Kemper, A; Nishino, T; Schadschneider, A; Zittartz, J

2003-01-01

We develop a new variant of the recently introduced stochastic transfer matrix DMRG which we call stochastic light-cone corner-transfer-matrix DMRG (LCTMRG). It is a numerical method to compute dynamic properties of one-dimensional stochastic processes. As suggested by its name, the LCTMRG is a modification of the corner-transfer-matrix DMRG, adjusted by an additional causality argument. As an example, two reaction-diffusion models, the diffusion-annihilation process and the branch-fusion process are studied and compared with exact data and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the capability and accuracy of the new method. The number of possible Trotter steps of more than 10 sup 5 shows a considerable improvement on the old stochastic TMRG algorithm.

A higher-order numerical framework for stochastic simulation of chemical reaction systems.

KAUST Repository

Szé kely, Tamá s; Burrage, Kevin; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C

2012-01-01

, to demonstrate the power of stochastic extrapolation. The extrapolation framework can increase the order of convergence of any fixed-step discrete stochastic solver and is very easy to implement; the only condition for its use is knowledge of the appropriate

Minimizing the stochasticity of halos in large-scale structure surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Hamaus, Nico; Seljak, Uroš; Desjacques, Vincent; Smith, Robert E.; Baldauf, Tobias

2010-08-01

In recent work (Seljak, Hamaus, and Desjacques 2009) it was found that weighting central halo galaxies by halo mass can significantly suppress their stochasticity relative to the dark matter, well below the Poisson model expectation. This is useful for constraining relations between galaxies and the dark matter, such as the galaxy bias, especially in situations where sampling variance errors can be eliminated. In this paper we extend this study with the goal of finding the optimal mass-dependent halo weighting. We use N-body simulations to perform a general analysis of halo stochasticity and its dependence on halo mass. We investigate the stochasticity matrix, defined as Cij≡⟨(δi-biδm)(δj-bjδm)⟩, where δm is the dark matter overdensity in Fourier space, δi the halo overdensity of the i-th halo mass bin, and bi the corresponding halo bias. In contrast to the Poisson model predictions we detect nonvanishing correlations between different mass bins. We also find the diagonal terms to be sub-Poissonian for the highest-mass halos. The diagonalization of this matrix results in one large and one low eigenvalue, with the remaining eigenvalues close to the Poisson prediction 1/n¯, where n¯ is the mean halo number density. The eigenmode with the lowest eigenvalue contains most of the information and the corresponding eigenvector provides an optimal weighting function to minimize the stochasticity between halos and dark matter. We find this optimal weighting function to match linear mass weighting at high masses, while at the low-mass end the weights approach a constant whose value depends on the low-mass cut in the halo mass function. This weighting further suppresses the stochasticity as compared to the previously explored mass weighting. Finally, we employ the halo model to derive the stochasticity matrix and the scale-dependent bias from an analytical perspective. It is remarkably successful in reproducing our numerical results and predicts that the

Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

CERN Document Server

Liu, Shu-Jun

2012-01-01

Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

Stochastic optimization of loading pattern for PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smuc, T.; Pevec, D.

1994-01-01

The application of stochastic optimization methods in solving in-core fuel management problems is restrained by the need for a large number of proposed solutions loading patterns, if a high quality final solution is wanted. Proposed loading patterns have to be evaluated by core neutronics simulator, which can impose unrealistic computer time requirements. A new loading pattern optimization code Monte Carlo Loading Pattern Search has been developed by coupling the simulated annealing optimization algorithm with a fast one-and-a-half dimensional core depletion simulator. The structure of the optimization method provides more efficient performance and allows the user to empty precious experience in the search process, thus reducing the search space size. Hereinafter, we discuss the characteristics of the method and illustrate them on the results obtained by solving the PWR reload problem. (authors). 7 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon Craig; Davis, Freddie J.; Johnson, J.D.

2000-01-01

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities

Evaluation of stochastic differential equation approximation of ion channel gating models.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruce, Ian C

2009-04-01

Fox and Lu derived an algorithm based on stochastic differential equations for approximating the kinetics of ion channel gating that is simpler and faster than "exact" algorithms for simulating Markov process models of channel gating. However, the approximation may not be sufficiently accurate to predict statistics of action potential generation in some cases. The objective of this study was to develop a framework for analyzing the inaccuracies and determining their origin. Simulations of a patch of membrane with voltage-gated sodium and potassium channels were performed using an exact algorithm for the kinetics of channel gating and the approximate algorithm of Fox & Lu. The Fox & Lu algorithm assumes that channel gating particle dynamics have a stochastic term that is uncorrelated, zero-mean Gaussian noise, whereas the results of this study demonstrate that in many cases the stochastic term in the Fox & Lu algorithm should be correlated and non-Gaussian noise with a non-zero mean. The results indicate that: (i) the source of the inaccuracy is that the Fox & Lu algorithm does not adequately describe the combined behavior of the multiple activation particles in each sodium and potassium channel, and (ii) the accuracy does not improve with increasing numbers of channels.

Portfolio management of hydropower producer via stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Hongling; Jiang, Chuanwen; Zhang, Yan

2009-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic linear programming framework for the hydropower portfolio management problem with uncertainty in market prices and inflows on medium term. The uncertainty is modeled as a scenario tree using the Monte Carlo simulation method, and the objective is to maximize the expected revenue over the entire scenario tree. The portfolio decisions of the stochastic model are formulated as a tradeoff involving different scenarios. Numerical results illustrate the impact of uncertainty on the portfolio management decisions, and indicate the significant value of stochastic solution. (author)

Stochastic failure modelling of unidirectional composite ply failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whiteside, M.B.; Pinho, S.T.; Robinson, P.

2012-01-01

Stochastic failure envelopes are generated through parallelised Monte Carlo Simulation of a physically based failure criteria for unidirectional carbon fibre/epoxy matrix composite plies. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the consequence on failure prediction of both statistical interaction of failure modes and uncertainty in global misalignment. Global variance-based Sobol sensitivity indices are computed to decompose the observed variance within the stochastic failure envelopes into contributions from physical input parameters. The paper highlights a selection of the potential advantages stochastic methodologies offer over the traditional deterministic approach.

Nonintrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Differential Equations

KAUST Repository

Jimenez, M. Navarro; Le Maî tre, O. P.; Knio, Omar

2017-01-01

A Galerkin polynomial chaos (PC) method was recently proposed to perform variance decomposition and sensitivity analysis in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), driven by Wiener noise and involving uncertain parameters. The present paper extends the PC method to nonintrusive approaches enabling its application to more complex systems hardly amenable to stochastic Galerkin projection methods. We also discuss parallel implementations and the variance decomposition of the derived quantity of interest within the framework of nonintrusive approaches. In particular, a novel hybrid PC-sampling-based strategy is proposed in the case of nonsmooth quantities of interest (QoIs) but smooth SDE solution. Numerical examples are provided that illustrate the decomposition of the variance of QoIs into contributions arising from the uncertain parameters, the inherent stochastic forcing, and joint effects. The simulations are also used to support a brief analysis of the computational complexity of the method, providing insight on the types of problems that would benefit from the present developments.

Nonintrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Differential Equations

KAUST Repository

Jimenez, M. Navarro

2017-04-18

A Galerkin polynomial chaos (PC) method was recently proposed to perform variance decomposition and sensitivity analysis in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), driven by Wiener noise and involving uncertain parameters. The present paper extends the PC method to nonintrusive approaches enabling its application to more complex systems hardly amenable to stochastic Galerkin projection methods. We also discuss parallel implementations and the variance decomposition of the derived quantity of interest within the framework of nonintrusive approaches. In particular, a novel hybrid PC-sampling-based strategy is proposed in the case of nonsmooth quantities of interest (QoIs) but smooth SDE solution. Numerical examples are provided that illustrate the decomposition of the variance of QoIs into contributions arising from the uncertain parameters, the inherent stochastic forcing, and joint effects. The simulations are also used to support a brief analysis of the computational complexity of the method, providing insight on the types of problems that would benefit from the present developments.

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time

Science.gov (United States)

Dhar, Amrit

2017-01-01

Abstract Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences. PMID:28177780

Applying GIS and high performance agent-based simulation for managing an Old World Screwworm fly invasion of Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, M C; Kwan, P W; Sajeev, A S M

2014-10-01

Agent-based modelling has proven to be a promising approach for developing rich simulations for complex phenomena that provide decision support functions across a broad range of areas including biological, social and agricultural sciences. This paper demonstrates how high performance computing technologies, namely General-Purpose Computing on Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU), and commercial Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be applied to develop a national scale, agent-based simulation of an incursion of Old World Screwworm fly (OWS fly) into the Australian mainland. The development of this simulation model leverages the combination of massively data-parallel processing capabilities supported by NVidia's Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) and the advanced spatial visualisation capabilities of GIS. These technologies have enabled the implementation of an individual-based, stochastic lifecycle and dispersal algorithm for the OWS fly invasion. The simulation model draws upon a wide range of biological data as input to stochastically determine the reproduction and survival of the OWS fly through the different stages of its lifecycle and dispersal of gravid females. Through this model, a highly efficient computational platform has been developed for studying the effectiveness of control and mitigation strategies and their associated economic impact on livestock industries can be materialised. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

STOCHASTIC MODEL OF THE SPIN DISTRIBUTION OF DARK MATTER HALOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Juhan [Center for Advanced Computation, Korea Institute for Advanced Study, Heogiro 85, Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Yun-Young [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Gyeonggi 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sungsoo S.; Lee, Jeong-Eun [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Gyeonggi 446-701 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-09-15

We employ a stochastic approach to probing the origin of the log-normal distributions of halo spin in N-body simulations. After analyzing spin evolution in halo merging trees, it was found that a spin change can be characterized by a stochastic random walk of angular momentum. Also, spin distributions generated by random walks are fairly consistent with those directly obtained from N-body simulations. We derived a stochastic differential equation from a widely used spin definition and measured the probability distributions of the derived angular momentum change from a massive set of halo merging trees. The roles of major merging and accretion are also statistically analyzed in evolving spin distributions. Several factors (local environment, halo mass, merging mass ratio, and redshift) are found to influence the angular momentum change. The spin distributions generated in the mean-field or void regions tend to shift slightly to a higher spin value compared with simulated spin distributions, which seems to be caused by the correlated random walks. We verified the assumption of randomness in the angular momentum change observed in the N-body simulation and detected several degrees of correlation between walks, which may provide a clue for the discrepancies between the simulated and generated spin distributions in the voids. However, the generated spin distributions in the group and cluster regions successfully match the simulated spin distribution. We also demonstrated that the log-normality of the spin distribution is a natural consequence of the stochastic differential equation of the halo spin, which is well described by the Geometric Brownian Motion model.

Intrinsic noise analyzer: a software package for the exploration of stochastic biochemical kinetics using the system size expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Philipp; Matuschek, Hannes; Grima, Ramon

2012-01-01

The accepted stochastic descriptions of biochemical dynamics under well-mixed conditions are given by the Chemical Master Equation and the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm, which are equivalent. The latter is a Monte-Carlo method, which, despite enjoying broad availability in a large number of existing software packages, is computationally expensive due to the huge amounts of ensemble averaging required for obtaining accurate statistical information. The former is a set of coupled differential-difference equations for the probability of the system being in any one of the possible mesoscopic states; these equations are typically computationally intractable because of the inherently large state space. Here we introduce the software package intrinsic Noise Analyzer (iNA), which allows for systematic analysis of stochastic biochemical kinetics by means of van Kampen's system size expansion of the Chemical Master Equation. iNA is platform independent and supports the popular SBML format natively. The present implementation is the first to adopt a complementary approach that combines state-of-the-art analysis tools using the computer algebra system Ginac with traditional methods of stochastic simulation. iNA integrates two approximation methods based on the system size expansion, the Linear Noise Approximation and effective mesoscopic rate equations, which to-date have not been available to non-expert users, into an easy-to-use graphical user interface. In particular, the present methods allow for quick approximate analysis of time-dependent mean concentrations, variances, covariances and correlations coefficients, which typically outperforms stochastic simulations. These analytical tools are complemented by automated multi-core stochastic simulations with direct statistical evaluation and visualization. We showcase iNA's performance by using it to explore the stochastic properties of cooperative and non-cooperative enzyme kinetics and a gene network associated with

Intrinsic noise analyzer: a software package for the exploration of stochastic biochemical kinetics using the system size expansion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp Thomas

Full Text Available The accepted stochastic descriptions of biochemical dynamics under well-mixed conditions are given by the Chemical Master Equation and the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm, which are equivalent. The latter is a Monte-Carlo method, which, despite enjoying broad availability in a large number of existing software packages, is computationally expensive due to the huge amounts of ensemble averaging required for obtaining accurate statistical information. The former is a set of coupled differential-difference equations for the probability of the system being in any one of the possible mesoscopic states; these equations are typically computationally intractable because of the inherently large state space. Here we introduce the software package intrinsic Noise Analyzer (iNA, which allows for systematic analysis of stochastic biochemical kinetics by means of van Kampen's system size expansion of the Chemical Master Equation. iNA is platform independent and supports the popular SBML format natively. The present implementation is the first to adopt a complementary approach that combines state-of-the-art analysis tools using the computer algebra system Ginac with traditional methods of stochastic simulation. iNA integrates two approximation methods based on the system size expansion, the Linear Noise Approximation and effective mesoscopic rate equations, which to-date have not been available to non-expert users, into an easy-to-use graphical user interface. In particular, the present methods allow for quick approximate analysis of time-dependent mean concentrations, variances, covariances and correlations coefficients, which typically outperforms stochastic simulations. These analytical tools are complemented by automated multi-core stochastic simulations with direct statistical evaluation and visualization. We showcase iNA's performance by using it to explore the stochastic properties of cooperative and non-cooperative enzyme kinetics and a gene network

Intrinsic Noise Analyzer: A Software Package for the Exploration of Stochastic Biochemical Kinetics Using the System Size Expansion

Science.gov (United States)

Grima, Ramon

2012-01-01

The accepted stochastic descriptions of biochemical dynamics under well-mixed conditions are given by the Chemical Master Equation and the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm, which are equivalent. The latter is a Monte-Carlo method, which, despite enjoying broad availability in a large number of existing software packages, is computationally expensive due to the huge amounts of ensemble averaging required for obtaining accurate statistical information. The former is a set of coupled differential-difference equations for the probability of the system being in any one of the possible mesoscopic states; these equations are typically computationally intractable because of the inherently large state space. Here we introduce the software package intrinsic Noise Analyzer (iNA), which allows for systematic analysis of stochastic biochemical kinetics by means of van Kampen’s system size expansion of the Chemical Master Equation. iNA is platform independent and supports the popular SBML format natively. The present implementation is the first to adopt a complementary approach that combines state-of-the-art analysis tools using the computer algebra system Ginac with traditional methods of stochastic simulation. iNA integrates two approximation methods based on the system size expansion, the Linear Noise Approximation and effective mesoscopic rate equations, which to-date have not been available to non-expert users, into an easy-to-use graphical user interface. In particular, the present methods allow for quick approximate analysis of time-dependent mean concentrations, variances, covariances and correlations coefficients, which typically outperforms stochastic simulations. These analytical tools are complemented by automated multi-core stochastic simulations with direct statistical evaluation and visualization. We showcase iNA’s performance by using it to explore the stochastic properties of cooperative and non-cooperative enzyme kinetics and a gene network associated with

Symplectic Integrators to Stochastic Hamiltonian Dynamical Systems Derived from Composition Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tetsuya Misawa

2010-01-01

Full Text Available “Symplectic” schemes for stochastic Hamiltonian dynamical systems are formulated through “composition methods (or operator splitting methods” proposed by Misawa (2001. In the proposed methods, a symplectic map, which is given by the solution of a stochastic Hamiltonian system, is approximated by composition of the stochastic flows derived from simpler Hamiltonian vector fields. The global error orders of the numerical schemes derived from the stochastic composition methods are provided. To examine the superiority of the new schemes, some illustrative numerical simulations on the basis of the proposed schemes are carried out for a stochastic harmonic oscillator system.

Stochastic resonance in bistable systems driven by harmonic noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neiman, A.; Schimansky-Geier, L.

1994-01-01

We study stochastic resonance in a bistable system which is excited simultaneously by white and harmonic noise which we understand as the signal. In our case the spectral line of the signal has a finite width as it occurs in many real situations. Using techniques of cumulant analysis as well as computer simulations we find that the effect of stochastic resonance is preserved in the case of harmonic noise excitation. Moreover we show that the width of the spectral line of the signal at the output can be decreased via stochastic resonance. The last could be of importance in the practical using of the stochastic resonance

Feedback, competition and stochasticity in a day ahead electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giabardo, Paolo; Zugno, Marco; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2010-01-01

Major recent changes in electricity markets relate to the process for their deregulation, along with increasing participation of renewable (stochastic) generation e.g. wind power. Our general objective is to model how feedback, competition and stochasticity (on the production side) interact in electricity markets, and eventually assess what their effects are on both the participants and the society. For this, day ahead electricity markets are modeled as dynamic closed loop systems, in which the feedback signal is the market price. In parallel, the Cournot competition model is considered. Mixed portfolios with significant share of renewable energy are based on stochastic threshold cost functions. Regarding trading strategies, it is assumed that generators are looking at optimizing their individual profits. The point of view of the society is addressed by analyzing market behavior and stability. The performed simulations show the beneficial effects of employing long term bidding strategies for both generators and society. Sensitivity analyses are performed in order to evaluate the effects of demand elasticity. It is shown that increase in demand elasticity reduces the possibility for the generators to exploit their market power. Furthermore, the results suggest that introduction of wind power generation in the market is beneficial both for the generators and the society.

Feedback, competition and stochasticity in a day ahead electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giabardo, Paolo; Zugno, Marco; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik [DTU Informatics, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads 305, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

2010-03-15

Major recent changes in electricity markets relate to the process for their deregulation, along with increasing participation of renewable (stochastic) generation e.g. wind power. Our general objective is to model how feedback, competition and stochasticity (on the production side) interact in electricity markets, and eventually assess what their effects are on both the participants and the society. For this, day ahead electricity markets are modeled as dynamic closed loop systems, in which the feedback signal is the market price. In parallel, the Cournot competition model is considered. Mixed portfolios with significant share of renewable energy are based on stochastic threshold cost functions. Regarding trading strategies, it is assumed that generators are looking at optimizing their individual profits. The point of view of the society is addressed by analyzing market behavior and stability. The performed simulations show the beneficial effects of employing long term bidding strategies for both generators and society. Sensitivity analyses are performed in order to evaluate the effects of demand elasticity. It is shown that increase in demand elasticity reduces the possibility for the generators to exploit their market power. Furthermore, the results suggest that introduction of wind power generation in the market is beneficial both for the generators and the society. (author)

Optimization of advanced gas-cooled reactor fuel performance by a stochastic method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parks, G.T.

1987-01-01

A brief description is presented of a model representing the in-core behaviour of a single advanced gas-cooled reactor fuel channel, developed specifically for optimization studies. The performances of the only suitable Numerical Algorithms Group (NAG) library package and a Metropolis algorithm routine on this problem are discussed and contrasted. It is concluded that, for the problem in question, the stochastic Metropolis algorithm has distinct advantages over the deterministic NAG routine. (author)

Estimating radiative feedbacks from stochastic fluctuations in surface temperature and energy imbalance

Science.gov (United States)

Proistosescu, C.; Donohoe, A.; Armour, K.; Roe, G.; Stuecker, M. F.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Joint observations of global surface temperature and energy imbalance provide for a unique opportunity to empirically constrain radiative feedbacks. However, the satellite record of Earth's radiative imbalance is relatively short and dominated by stochastic fluctuations. Estimates of radiative feedbacks obtained by regressing energy imbalance against surface temperature depend strongly on sampling choices and on assumptions about whether the stochastic fluctuations are primarily forced by atmospheric or oceanic variability (e.g. Murphy and Forster 2010, Dessler 2011, Spencer and Braswell 2011, Forster 2016). We develop a framework around a stochastic energy balance model that allows us to parse the different contributions of atmospheric and oceanic forcing based on their differing impacts on the covariance structure - or lagged regression - of temperature and radiative imbalance. We validate the framework in a hierarchy of general circulation models: the impact of atmospheric forcing is examined in unforced control simulations of fixed sea-surface temperature and slab ocean model versions; the impact of oceanic forcing is examined in coupled simulations with prescribed ENSO variability. With the impact of atmospheric and oceanic forcing constrained, we are able to predict the relationship between temperature and radiative imbalance in a fully coupled control simulation, finding that both forcing sources are needed to explain the structure of the lagged-regression. We further model the dependence of feedback estimates on sampling interval by considering the effects of a finite equilibration time for the atmosphere, and issues of smoothing and aliasing. Finally, we develop a method to fit the stochastic model to the short timeseries of temperature and radiative imbalance by performing a Bayesian inference based on a modified version of the spectral Whittle likelihood. We are thus able to place realistic joint uncertainty estimates on both stochastic forcing and

Design Of Combined Stochastic Feedforward/Feedback Control

Science.gov (United States)

Halyo, Nesim

1989-01-01

Methodology accommodates variety of control structures and design techniques. In methodology for combined stochastic feedforward/feedback control, main objectives of feedforward and feedback control laws seen clearly. Inclusion of error-integral feedback, dynamic compensation, rate-command control structure, and like integral element of methodology. Another advantage of methodology flexibility to develop variety of techniques for design of feedback control with arbitrary structures to obtain feedback controller: includes stochastic output feedback, multiconfiguration control, decentralized control, or frequency and classical control methods. Control modes of system include capture and tracking of localizer and glideslope, crab, decrab, and flare. By use of recommended incremental implementation, control laws simulated on digital computer and connected with nonlinear digital simulation of aircraft and its systems.

Reflected stochastic differential equation models for constrained animal movement

Science.gov (United States)

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Johnson, Devin S.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2017-01-01

Movement for many animal species is constrained in space by barriers such as rivers, shorelines, or impassable cliffs. We develop an approach for modeling animal movement constrained in space by considering a class of constrained stochastic processes, reflected stochastic differential equations. Our approach generalizes existing methods for modeling unconstrained animal movement. We present methods for simulation and inference based on augmenting the constrained movement path with a latent unconstrained path and illustrate this augmentation with a simulation example and an analysis of telemetry data from a Steller sea lion (Eumatopias jubatus) in southeast Alaska.

Hybrid Semantics of Stochastic Programs with Dynamic Reconfiguration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Policriti

2009-10-01

Full Text Available We begin by reviewing a technique to approximate the dynamics of stochastic programs --written in a stochastic process algebra-- by a hybrid system, suitable to capture a mixed discrete/continuous evolution. In a nutshell, the discrete dynamics is kept stochastic while the continuous evolution is given in terms of ODEs, and the overall technique, therefore, naturally associates a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process with a stochastic program. The specific contribution in this work consists in an increase of the flexibility of the translation scheme, obtained by allowing a dynamic reconfiguration of the degree of discreteness/continuity of the semantics. We also discuss the relationships of this approach with other hybrid simulation strategies for biochemical systems.

Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning

CERN Document Server

Melchiors, Philipp

2015-01-01

This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.

An Application of a Stochastic Semi-Continuous Simulation Method for Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in Slovakia

Science.gov (United States)

Valent, Peter; Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-09-01

A reliable estimate of extreme flood characteristics has always been an active topic in hydrological research. Over the decades a large number of approaches and their modifications have been proposed and used, with various methods utilizing continuous simulation of catchment runoff, being the subject of the most intensive research in the last decade. In this paper a new and promising stochastic semi-continuous method is used to estimate extreme discharges in two mountainous Slovak catchments of the rivers Váh and Hron, in which snow-melt processes need to be taken into account. The SCHADEX method used, couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a rainfall-runoff model used to both continuously simulate catchment hydrological conditions and to transform generated synthetic rainfall events into corresponding discharges. The stochastic nature of the method means that a wide range of synthetic rainfall events were simulated on various historical catchment conditions, taking into account not only the saturation of soil, but also the amount of snow accumulated in the catchment. The results showed that the SCHADEX extreme discharge estimates with return periods of up to 100 years were comparable to those estimated by statistical approaches. In addition, two reconstructed historical floods with corresponding return periods of 100 and 1000 years were compared to the SCHADEX estimates. The results confirmed the usability of the method for estimating design discharges with a recurrence interval of more than 100 years and its applicability in Slovak conditions.

Multisite stochastic simulation of daily precipitation from copula modeling with a gamma marginal distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Taesam

2018-05-01

Multisite stochastic simulations of daily precipitation have been widely employed in hydrologic analyses for climate change assessment and agricultural model inputs. Recently, a copula model with a gamma marginal distribution has become one of the common approaches for simulating precipitation at multiple sites. Here, we tested the correlation structure of the copula modeling. The results indicate that there is a significant underestimation of the correlation in the simulated data compared to the observed data. Therefore, we proposed an indirect method for estimating the cross-correlations when simulating precipitation at multiple stations. We used the full relationship between the correlation of the observed data and the normally transformed data. Although this indirect method offers certain improvements in preserving the cross-correlations between sites in the original domain, the method was not reliable in application. Therefore, we further improved a simulation-based method (SBM) that was developed to model the multisite precipitation occurrence. The SBM preserved well the cross-correlations of the original domain. The SBM method provides around 0.2 better cross-correlation than the direct method and around 0.1 degree better than the indirect method. The three models were applied to the stations in the Nakdong River basin, and the SBM was the best alternative for reproducing the historical cross-correlation. The direct method significantly underestimates the correlations among the observed data, and the indirect method appeared to be unreliable.

On the neutron noise diagnostics of pressurized water reactor control rod vibrations II. Stochastic vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pazsit, I.; Glockler, O.

1984-01-01

In an earlier publication, using the theory of neutron fluctuations induced by a vibrating control rod, a complete formal solution of rod vibration diagnostics based on neutron noise measurements was given in terms of Fourier-transformed neutron detector time signals. The suggested procedure was checked in numerical simulation tests where only periodic vibrations could be considered. The procedure and its numerical testing are elaborated for stochastic two-dimensional vibrations. A simple stochastic theory of two-dimensional flow-induced vibrations is given; then the diagnostic method is formulated in the stochastic case, that is, in terms of neutron detector auto- and crosspower spectra. A previously suggested approximate rod localization technique is also formulated in the stochastic case. Applicability of the methods is then investigated in numerical simulation tests, using the proposed model of stochastic two-dimensional vibrations when generating neutron detector spectra that simulate measured data

Multiparameter Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System with Continuous Visitor Education Interventions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongping Wei

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Management of ecological tourism in protected areas faces many challenges, with visitation-related resource degradations and cultural impacts being two of them. To address those issues, several strategies including regulations, site managements, and visitor education programs have been commonly used in China and other countries. This paper presents a multiparameter stochastic differential equation model of an Ecological Tourism System to study how the populations of stakeholders vary in a finite time. The solution of Ordinary Differential Equation of Ecological Tourism System reveals that the system collapses when there is a lack of visitor educational intervention. Hence, the Stochastic Dynamic of Ecological Tourism System is introduced to suppress the explosion of the system. But the simulation results of the Stochastic Dynamic of Ecological Tourism System show that the system is still unstable and chaos in some small time interval. The Multiparameters Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System is proposed to improve the performance in this paper. The Multiparameters Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System not only suppresses the explosion of the system in a finite time, but also keeps the populations of stakeholders in an acceptable level. In conclusion, the Ecological Tourism System develops steadily and sustainably when land managers employ effective visitor education intervention programs to deal with recreation impacts.

Comparison of different moment-closure approximations for stochastic chemical kinetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schnoerr, David [School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Sanguinetti, Guido [School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Grima, Ramon [School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

2015-11-14

In recent years, moment-closure approximations (MAs) of the chemical master equation have become a popular method for the study of stochastic effects in chemical reaction systems. Several different MA methods have been proposed and applied in the literature, but it remains unclear how they perform with respect to each other. In this paper, we study the normal, Poisson, log-normal, and central-moment-neglect MAs by applying them to understand the stochastic properties of chemical systems whose deterministic rate equations show the properties of bistability, ultrasensitivity, and oscillatory behaviour. Our results suggest that the normal MA is favourable over the other studied MAs. In particular, we found that (i) the size of the region of parameter space where a closure gives physically meaningful results, e.g., positive mean and variance, is considerably larger for the normal closure than for the other three closures, (ii) the accuracy of the predictions of the four closures (relative to simulations using the stochastic simulation algorithm) is comparable in those regions of parameter space where all closures give physically meaningful results, and (iii) the Poisson and log-normal MAs are not uniquely defined for systems involving conservation laws in molecule numbers. We also describe the new software package MOCA which enables the automated numerical analysis of various MA methods in a graphical user interface and which was used to perform the comparative analysis presented in this paper. MOCA allows the user to develop novel closure methods and can treat polynomial, non-polynomial, as well as time-dependent propensity functions, thus being applicable to virtually any chemical reaction system.

Stochastic calculus an introduction through theory and exercises

CERN Document Server

Baldi, Paolo

2017-01-01

This book provides a comprehensive introduction to the theory of stochastic calculus and some of its applications. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises with complete solutions. After explaining the basic elements of probability, the author introduces more advanced topics such as Brownian motion, martingales and Markov processes. The core of the book covers stochastic calculus, including stochastic differential equations, the relationship to partial differential equations, numerical methods and simulation, as well as applications of stochastic processes to finance. The final chapter provides detailed solutions to all exercises, in some cases presenting various solution techniques together with a discussion of advantages and drawbacks of the methods used. Stochastic Calculus will be particularly useful to advanced undergraduate and graduate students wishing to acquire a solid understanding of the subject through the theory and exercises. Including full mathematical ...

Stochasticity of phase trajectory of a charged particle in a plasma wave

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murakami, Akihiko; Nomura, Yasuyuki; Momota, Hiromu.

1980-06-01

Stochastic behavior of charged particles in finite amplitude plasma waves is examined by means of particle simulations under the condition that Chirikov's criterion is broken down. The process of growint the stochastic region is clarified and accordingly the width of the stochastic region is discussed. Discussions on the effects of higher order resonances are also presented. (author)

Stochastic Control of Energy Efficient Buildings: A Semidefinite Programming Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Xiao [ORNL; Dong, Jin [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Nutaro, James J [ORNL; Kuruganti, Teja [ORNL

2015-01-01

The key goal in energy efficient buildings is to reduce energy consumption of Heating, Ventilation, and Air- Conditioning (HVAC) systems while maintaining a comfortable temperature and humidity in the building. This paper proposes a novel stochastic control approach for achieving joint performance and power control of HVAC. We employ a constrained Stochastic Linear Quadratic Control (cSLQC) by minimizing a quadratic cost function with a disturbance assumed to be Gaussian. The problem is formulated to minimize the expected cost subject to a linear constraint and a probabilistic constraint. By using cSLQC, the problem is reduced to a semidefinite optimization problem, where the optimal control can be computed efficiently by Semidefinite programming (SDP). Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and power efficiency by utilizing the proposed control approach.

An h-adaptive stochastic collocation method for stochastic EMC/EMI analysis

KAUST Repository

Yücel, Abdulkadir C.

2010-07-01

The analysis of electromagnetic compatibility and interference (EMC/EMI) phenomena is often fraught by randomness in a system\\'s excitation (e.g., the amplitude, phase, and location of internal noise sources) or configuration (e.g., the routing of cables, the placement of electronic systems, component specifications, etc.). To bound the probability of system malfunction, fast and accurate techniques to quantify the uncertainty in system observables (e.g., voltages across mission-critical circuit elements) are called for. Recently proposed stochastic frameworks [1-2] combine deterministic electromagnetic (EM) simulators with stochastic collocation (SC) methods that approximate system observables using generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPC) [3] (viz. orthogonal polynomials spanning the entire random domain) to estimate their statistical moments and probability density functions (pdfs). When constructing gPC expansions, the EM simulator is used solely to evaluate system observables at collocation points prescribed by the SC-gPC scheme. The frameworks in [1-2] therefore are non-intrusive and straightforward to implement. That said, they become inefficient and inaccurate for system observables that vary rapidly or are discontinuous in the random variables (as their representations may require very high-order polynomials). © 2010 IEEE.

Multi-Algorithm Particle Simulations with Spatiocyte.

Science.gov (United States)

Arjunan, Satya N V; Takahashi, Koichi

2017-01-01

As quantitative biologists get more measurements of spatially regulated systems such as cell division and polarization, simulation of reaction and diffusion of proteins using the data is becoming increasingly relevant to uncover the mechanisms underlying the systems. Spatiocyte is a lattice-based stochastic particle simulator for biochemical reaction and diffusion processes. Simulations can be performed at single molecule and compartment spatial scales simultaneously. Molecules can diffuse and react in 1D (filament), 2D (membrane), and 3D (cytosol) compartments. The implications of crowded regions in the cell can be investigated because each diffusing molecule has spatial dimensions. Spatiocyte adopts multi-algorithm and multi-timescale frameworks to simulate models that simultaneously employ deterministic, stochastic, and particle reaction-diffusion algorithms. Comparison of light microscopy images to simulation snapshots is supported by Spatiocyte microscopy visualization and molecule tagging features. Spatiocyte is open-source software and is freely available at http://spatiocyte.org .

Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems

CERN Document Server

Bujorianu, Luminita Manuela

2012-01-01

Stochastic reachability analysis (SRA) is a method of analyzing the behavior of control systems which mix discrete and continuous dynamics. For probabilistic discrete systems it has been shown to be a practical verification method but for stochastic hybrid systems it can be rather more. As a verification technique SRA can assess the safety and performance of, for example, autonomous systems, robot and aircraft path planning and multi-agent coordination but it can also be used for the adaptive control of such systems. Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems is a self-contained and accessible introduction to this novel topic in the analysis and development of stochastic hybrid systems. Beginning with the relevant aspects of Markov models and introducing stochastic hybrid systems, the book then moves on to coverage of reachability analysis for stochastic hybrid systems. Following this build up, the core of the text first formally defines the concept of reachability in the stochastic framework and then...

Backward-stochastic-differential-equation approach to modeling of gene expression.

Science.gov (United States)

Shamarova, Evelina; Chertovskih, Roman; Ramos, Alexandre F; Aguiar, Paulo

2017-03-01

In this article, we introduce a backward method to model stochastic gene expression and protein-level dynamics. The protein amount is regarded as a diffusion process and is described by a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). Unlike many other SDE techniques proposed in the literature, the BSDE method is backward in time; that is, instead of initial conditions it requires the specification of end-point ("final") conditions, in addition to the model parametrization. To validate our approach we employ Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) to generate (forward) benchmark data, according to predefined gene network models. Numerical simulations show that the BSDE method is able to correctly infer the protein-level distributions that preceded a known final condition, obtained originally from the forward SSA. This makes the BSDE method a powerful systems biology tool for time-reversed simulations, allowing, for example, the assessment of the biological conditions (e.g., protein concentrations) that preceded an experimentally measured event of interest (e.g., mitosis, apoptosis, etc.).

Improving the performance of power-limited transverse stochastic cooling systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldberg, D.A.; Lambertson, G.R.

1989-08-01

We present the formulas relevant to the behavior of (transverse) stochastic cooling systems which operate under the not uncommon condition that performance is limited by available output power, and contrast the operation of such systems with non-power-limited ones. In particular, we show that for power-limited systems, the two most effective improvements are the use of pickups/kickers which operate in both planes simultaneously and/or plunging of the cooling system electrodes, and present an example where increasing bandwidth is counter-productive. We apply our results to the proposed upgrade of the Fermilab bar p source. 4 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

History-dependent stochastic Petri nets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schonenberg, H.; Sidorova, N.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Hee, van K.M.; Pnueli, A.; Virbitskaite, I.; Voronkov, A.

2010-01-01

Stochastic Petri Nets are a useful and well-known tool for performance analysis. However, an implicit assumption in the different types of Stochastic Petri Nets is the Markov property. It is assumed that a choice in the Petri net only depends on the current state and not on earlier choices. For many

Gearbox damage identification and quantification using stochastic resonance

Science.gov (United States)

Mba, Clement U.; Marchesiello, Stefano; Fasana, Alessandro; Garibaldi, Luigi

2018-03-01

Amongst the many new tools used for vibration based mechanical fault diagnosis in rotating machineries, stochastic resonance (SR) has been shown to be able to identify as well as quantify gearbox damage via numerical simulations. To validate the numerical simulation results that were obtained in a previous work by the authors, SR is applied in the present study to data from an experimental gearbox that is representative of an industrial gearbox. Both spur and helical gears are used in the gearbox setup. While the results of the direct application of SR to experimental data do not exactly corroborate the numerical simulation results, applying SR to experimental data in pre-processed form is shown to be quite effective. In addition, it is demonstrated that traditional statistical techniques used for gearbox diagnosis can be used as a reference to check how well SR performs.

Stochastic models to study the impact of mixing on a fed-batch culture of Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Science.gov (United States)

Delvigne, F; Lejeune, A; Destain, J; Thonart, P

2006-01-01

The mechanisms of interaction between microorganisms and their environment in a stirred bioreactor can be modeled by a stochastic approach. The procedure comprises two submodels: a classical stochastic model for the microbial cell circulation and a Markov chain model for the concentration gradient calculus. The advantage lies in the fact that the core of each submodel, i.e., the transition matrix (which contains the probabilities to shift from a perfectly mixed compartment to another in the bioreactor representation), is identical for the two cases. That means that both the particle circulation and fluid mixing process can be analyzed by use of the same modeling basis. This assumption has been validated by performing inert tracer (NaCl) and stained yeast cells dispersion experiments that have shown good agreement with simulation results. The stochastic model has been used to define a characteristic concentration profile experienced by the microorganisms during a fermentation test performed in a scale-down reactor. The concentration profiles obtained in this way can explain the scale-down effect in the case of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae fed-batch process. The simulation results are analyzed in order to give some explanations about the effect of the substrate fluctuation dynamics on S. cerevisiae.

Modeling and Properties of Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamical System of Continuous Culture

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei; Feng, Enmin; Ye, Jianxiong; Xiu, Zhilong

The stochastic counterpart to the deterministic description of continuous fermentation with ordinary differential equation is investigated in the process of glycerol bio-dissimilation to 1,3-propanediol by Klebsiella pneumoniae. We briefly discuss the continuous fermentation process driven by three-dimensional Brownian motion and Lipschitz coefficients, which is suitable for the factual fermentation. Subsequently, we study the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the stochastic system as well as the boundedness of the Two-order Moment and the Markov property of the solution. Finally stochastic simulation is carried out under the Stochastic Euler-Maruyama method.

Numerical simulation of stochastic point kinetic equation in the dynamical system of nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saha Ray, S.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► In this paper stochastic neutron point kinetic equations have been analyzed. ► Euler–Maruyama method and Strong Taylor 1.5 order method have been discussed. ► These methods are applied for the solution of stochastic point kinetic equations. ► Comparison between the results of these methods and others are presented in tables. ► Graphs for neutron and precursor sample paths are also presented. -- Abstract: In the present paper, the numerical approximation methods, applied to efficiently calculate the solution for stochastic point kinetic equations () in nuclear reactor dynamics, are investigated. A system of Itô stochastic differential equations has been analyzed to model the neutron density and the delayed neutron precursors in a point nuclear reactor. The resulting system of Itô stochastic differential equations are solved over each time-step size. The methods are verified by considering different initial conditions, experimental data and over constant reactivities. The computational results indicate that the methods are simple and suitable for solving stochastic point kinetic equations. In this article, a numerical investigation is made in order to observe the random oscillations in neutron and precursor population dynamics in subcritical and critical reactors.

Evoking prescribed spike times in stochastic neurons

Science.gov (United States)

Doose, Jens; Lindner, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Single cell stimulation in vivo is a powerful tool to investigate the properties of single neurons and their functionality in neural networks. We present a method to determine a cell-specific stimulus that reliably evokes a prescribed spike train with high temporal precision of action potentials. We test the performance of this stimulus in simulations for two different stochastic neuron models. For a broad range of parameters and a neuron firing with intermediate firing rates (20-40 Hz) the reliability in evoking the prescribed spike train is close to its theoretical maximum that is mainly determined by the level of intrinsic noise.

Stochastic calculus in physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, R.F.

1987-01-01

The relationship of Ito-Stratonovich stochastic calculus to studies of weakly colored noise is explained. A functional calculus approach is used to obtain an effective Fokker-Planck equation for the weakly colored noise regime. In a smooth limit, this representation produces the Stratonovich version of the Ito-Stratonovich calculus for white noise. It also provides an approach to steady state behavior for strongly colored noise. Numerical simulation algorithms are explored, and a novel suggestion is made for efficient and accurate simulation of white noise equations

A stochastic model of nanoparticle self-assembly on Cayley trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazilu, I; Schwen, E M; Banks, W E; Pope, B K; Mazilu, D A

2015-01-01

Nanomedicine is an emerging area of medical research that uses innovative nanotechnologies to improve the delivery of therapeutic and diagnostic agents with maximum clinical benefit. We present a versatile stochastic model that can be used to capture the basic features of drug encapsulation of nanoparticles on tree-like synthetic polymers called dendrimers. The geometry of a dendrimer is described mathematically as a Cayley tree. We use our stochastic model to study the dynamics of deposition and release of monomers (simulating the drug molecules) on Cayley trees (simulating dendrimers). We present analytical and Monte Carlo simulation results for the particle density on Cayley trees of coordination number three and four

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Muhammad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Stochastic modeling and analysis of telecoms networks

CERN Document Server

Decreusefond, Laurent

2012-01-01

This book addresses the stochastic modeling of telecommunication networks, introducing the main mathematical tools for that purpose, such as Markov processes, real and spatial point processes and stochastic recursions, and presenting a wide list of results on stability, performances and comparison of systems.The authors propose a comprehensive mathematical construction of the foundations of stochastic network theory: Markov chains, continuous time Markov chains are extensively studied using an original martingale-based approach. A complete presentation of stochastic recursions from an

Stochastic chaos in a Duffing oscillator and its control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Cunli; Lei Youming; Fang Tong

2006-01-01

Stochastic chaos discussed here means a kind of chaotic responses in a Duffing oscillator with bounded random parameters under harmonic excitations. A system with random parameters is usually called a stochastic system. The modifier 'stochastic' here implies dependent on some random parameter. As the system itself is stochastic, so is the response, even under harmonic excitations alone. In this paper stochastic chaos and its control are verified by the top Lyapunov exponent of the system. A non-feedback control strategy is adopted here by adding an adjustable noisy phase to the harmonic excitation, so that the control can be realized by adjusting the noise level. It is found that by this control strategy stochastic chaos can be tamed down to the small neighborhood of a periodic trajectory or an equilibrium state. In the analysis the stochastic Duffing oscillator is first transformed into an equivalent deterministic nonlinear system by the Gegenbauer polynomial approximation, so that the problem of controlling stochastic chaos can be reduced into the problem of controlling deterministic chaos in the equivalent system. Then the top Lyapunov exponent of the equivalent system is obtained by Wolf's method to examine the chaotic behavior of the response. Numerical simulations show that the random phase control strategy is an effective way to control stochastic chaos

Objective mapping of observed sub-surface mesoscale cold core eddy in the Bay of Bengal by stochastic inverse technique with tomographically simulated travel times

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Murty, T.V.R.; Rao, M.M.M.; Sadhuram, Y.; Sridevi, B.; Maneesha, K.; SujithKumar, S.; Prasanna, P.L.; Murthy, K.S.R.

of Bengal during south-west monsoon season and explore possibility to reconstruct the acoustic profile of the eddy by Stochastic Inverse Technique. A simulation experiment on forward and inverse problems for observed sound velocity perturbation field has...

Stochastic modeling for the expression of a gene regulated by competing transcription factors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsih-Te Yang

Full Text Available It is widely accepted that gene expression regulation is a stochastic event. The common approach for its computer simulation requires detailed information on the interactions of individual molecules, which is often not available for the analyses of biological experiments. As an alternative approach, we employed a more intuitive model to simulate the experimental result, the Markov-chain model, in which a gene is regulated by activators and repressors, which bind the same site in a mutually exclusive manner. Our stochastic simulation in the presence of both activators and repressors predicted a Hill-coefficient of the dose-response curve closer to the experimentally observed value than the calculated value based on the simple additive effects of activators alone and repressors alone. The simulation also reproduced the heterogeneity of gene expression levels among individual cells observed by Fluorescence Activated Cell Sorting analysis. Therefore, our approach may help to apply stochastic simulations to broader experimental data.

High-speed Stochastic Fatigue Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brincker, Rune; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1990-01-01

Good stochastic fatigue tests are difficult to perform. One of the major reasons is that ordinary servohydraulic loading systems realize the prescribed load history accurately at very low testing speeds only. If the speeds used for constant amplitude testing are applied to stochastic fatigue...

Low-frequency scaling applied to stochastic finite-fault modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Crane, Stephen; Motazedian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Stochastic finite-fault modeling is an important tool for simulating moderate to large earthquakes. It has proven to be useful in applications that require a reliable estimation of ground motions, mostly in the spectral frequency range of 1 to 10 Hz, which is the range of most interest to engineers. However, since there can be little resemblance between the low-frequency spectra of large and small earthquakes, this portion can be difficult to simulate using stochastic finite-fault techniques. This paper introduces two different methods to scale low-frequency spectra for stochastic finite-fault modeling. One method multiplies the subfault source spectrum by an empirical function. This function has three parameters to scale the low-frequency spectra: the level of scaling and the start and end frequencies of the taper. This empirical function adjusts the earthquake spectra only between the desired frequencies, conserving seismic moment in the simulated spectra. The other method is an empirical low-frequency coefficient that is added to the subfault corner frequency. This new parameter changes the ratio between high and low frequencies. For each simulation, the entire earthquake spectra is adjusted, which may result in the seismic moment not being conserved for a simulated earthquake. These low-frequency scaling methods were used to reproduce recorded earthquake spectra from several earthquakes recorded in the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) database. There were two methods of determining the stochastic parameters of best fit for each earthquake: a general residual analysis and an earthquake-specific residual analysis. Both methods resulted in comparable values for stress drop and the low-frequency scaling parameters; however, the earthquake-specific residual analysis obtained a more accurate distribution of the averaged residuals.

A Proposed Stochastic Finite Difference Approach Based on Homogenous Chaos Expansion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. H. Galal

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a stochastic finite difference approach, based on homogenous chaos expansion (SFDHC. The said approach can handle time dependent nonlinear as well as linear systems with deterministic or stochastic initial and boundary conditions. In this approach, included stochastic parameters are modeled as second-order stochastic processes and are expanded using Karhunen-Loève expansion, while the response function is approximated using homogenous chaos expansion. Galerkin projection is used in converting the original stochastic partial differential equation (PDE into a set of coupled deterministic partial differential equations and then solved using finite difference method. Two well-known equations were used for efficiency validation of the method proposed. First one being the linear diffusion equation with stochastic parameter and the second is the nonlinear Burger's equation with stochastic parameter and stochastic initial and boundary conditions. In both of these examples, the probability distribution function of the response manifested close conformity to the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation with optimized computational cost.

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

Science.gov (United States)