Recurrent network models for perfect temporal integration of fluctuating correlated inputs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiroshi Okamoto

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Temporal integration of input is essential to the accumulation of information in various cognitive and behavioral processes, and gradually increasing neuronal activity, typically occurring within a range of seconds, is considered to reflect such computation by the brain. Some psychological evidence suggests that temporal integration by the brain is nearly perfect, that is, the integration is non-leaky, and the output of a neural integrator is accurately proportional to the strength of input. Neural mechanisms of perfect temporal integration, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we propose a recurrent network model of cortical neurons that perfectly integrates partially correlated, irregular input spike trains. We demonstrate that the rate of this temporal integration changes proportionately to the probability of spike coincidences in synaptic inputs. We analytically prove that this highly accurate integration of synaptic inputs emerges from integration of the variance of the fluctuating synaptic inputs, when their mean component is kept constant. Highly irregular neuronal firing and spike coincidences are the major features of cortical activity, but they have been separately addressed so far. Our results suggest that the efficient protocol of information integration by cortical networks essentially requires both features and hence is heterotic.

Effects of Perfectly Correlated and Anti-Correlated Noise in a Logistic Growth Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Li; Cao Li

2011-01-01

The logistic growth model with correlated additive and multiplicative Gaussian white noise is used to analyze tumor cell population. The effects of perfectly correlated and anti-correlated noise on the stationary properties of tumor cell population are studied. As in both cases the diffusion coefficient has zero point in real number field, some special features of the system are arisen. It is found that in both cases, the increase of the multiplicative noise intensity cause tumor cell extinction. In the perfectly anti-correlated case, the stationary probability distribution as a function of tumor cell population exhibit two extrema. (general)

A note on perfect scalar fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unnikrishnan, Sanil; Sriramkumar, L.

2010-01-01

We derive a condition on the Lagrangian density describing a generic, single, noncanonical scalar field, by demanding that the intrinsic, nonadiabatic pressure perturbation associated with the scalar field vanishes identically. Based on the analogy with perfect fluids, we refer to such fields as perfect scalar fields. It is common knowledge that models that depend only on the kinetic energy of the scalar field (often referred to as pure kinetic models) possess no nonadiabatic pressure perturbation. While we are able to construct models that seemingly depend on the scalar field and also do not contain any nonadiabatic pressure perturbation, we find that all such models that we construct allow a redefinition of the field under which they reduce to pure kinetic models. We show that, if a perfect scalar field drives inflation, then, in such situations, the first slow roll parameter will always be a monotonically decreasing function of time. We point out that this behavior implies that these scalar fields cannot lead to features in the inflationary, scalar perturbation spectrum.

Simulation of MILD combustion using Perfectly Stirred Reactor model

KAUST Repository

Chen, Z.

2016-07-06

A simple model based on a Perfectly Stirred Reactor (PSR) is proposed for moderate or intense low-oxygen dilution (MILD) combustion. The PSR calculation is performed covering the entire flammability range and the tabulated chemistry approach is used with a presumed joint probability density function (PDF). The jet, in hot and diluted coflow experimental set-up under MILD conditions, is simulated using this reactor model for two oxygen dilution levels. The computed results for mean temperature, major and minor species mass fractions are compared with the experimental data and simulation results obtained recently using a multi-environment transported PDF approach. Overall, a good agreement is observed at three different axial locations for these comparisons despite the over-predicted peak value of CO formation. This suggests that MILD combustion can be effectively modelled by the proposed PSR model with lower computational cost.

Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Melen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

Quantum perfect correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozawa, Masanao

2006-01-01

The notion of perfect correlations between arbitrary observables, or more generally arbitrary POVMs, is introduced in the standard formulation of quantum mechanics, and characterized by several well-established statistical conditions. The transitivity of perfect correlations is proved to generally hold, and applied to a simple articulation for the failure of Hardy's nonlocality proof for maximally entangled states. The notion of perfect correlations between observables and POVMs is used for defining the notion of a precise measurement of a given observable in a given state. A longstanding misconception on the correlation made by the measuring interaction is resolved in the light of the new theory of quantum perfect correlations

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

Science.gov (United States)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

Science.gov (United States)

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Banta, Edward R.

2014-01-01

Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

Bianchi Type-I Massive String Magnetized Barotropic Perfect Fluid Cosmological Model in the Bimetric Theory of Gravitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaikwad, N. P.; Borkar, M. S.; Charjan, S. S.

2011-01-01

We investigate the Bianchi type-I massive string magnetized barotropic perfect fluid cosmological model in Rosen's bimetric theory of gravitation with and without a magnetic field by applying the techniques used by Latelier (1979, 1980) and Stachel (1983). To obtain a deterministic model of the universe, it is assumed that the universe is filled with barotropic perfect fluid distribution. The physical and geometrical significance of the model are discussed. By comparing our model with the model of Bali et al. (2007), it is realized that there are no big-bang and big-crunch singularities in our model and T = 0 is not the time of the big bang, whereas the model of Bali et al. starts with a big bang at T = 0. Further, our model is in agreement with Bali et al. (2007) as time increases in the presence, as well as in the absence, of a magnetic field. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Explaining evolution via constrained persistent perfect phylogeny

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The perfect phylogeny is an often used model in phylogenetics since it provides an efficient basic procedure for representing the evolution of genomic binary characters in several frameworks, such as for example in haplotype inference. The model, which is conceptually the simplest, is based on the infinite sites assumption, that is no character can mutate more than once in the whole tree. A main open problem regarding the model is finding generalizations that retain the computational tractability of the original model but are more flexible in modeling biological data when the infinite site assumption is violated because of e.g. back mutations. A special case of back mutations that has been considered in the study of the evolution of protein domains (where a domain is acquired and then lost) is persistency, that is the fact that a character is allowed to return back to the ancestral state. In this model characters can be gained and lost at most once. In this paper we consider the computational problem of explaining binary data by the Persistent Perfect Phylogeny model (referred as PPP) and for this purpose we investigate the problem of reconstructing an evolution where some constraints are imposed on the paths of the tree. Results We define a natural generalization of the PPP problem obtained by requiring that for some pairs (character, species), neither the species nor any of its ancestors can have the character. In other words, some characters cannot be persistent for some species. This new problem is called Constrained PPP (CPPP). Based on a graph formulation of the CPPP problem, we are able to provide a polynomial time solution for the CPPP problem for matrices whose conflict graph has no edges. Using this result, we develop a parameterized algorithm for solving the CPPP problem where the parameter is the number of characters. Conclusions A preliminary experimental analysis shows that the constrained persistent perfect phylogeny model allows to

Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

2015-01-01

This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

Perfect imaging without negative refraction

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2009-01-01

Perfect imaging has been believed to rely on negative refraction, but here we show that an ordinary positively-refracting optical medium may form perfect images as well. In particular, we establish a mathematical proof that Maxwell's fish eye in two-dimensional integrated optics makes a perfect instrument with a resolution not limited by the wavelength of light. We also show how to modify the fish eye such that perfect imaging devices can be made in practice. Our method of perfect focusing ma...

PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Yu. Sulimov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

Complementary responses to mean and variance modulations in the perfect integrate-and-fire model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pressley, Joanna; Troyer, Todd W

2009-07-01

In the perfect integrate-and-fire model (PIF), the membrane voltage is proportional to the integral of the input current since the time of the previous spike. It has been shown that the firing rate within a noise free ensemble of PIF neurons responds instantaneously to dynamic changes in the input current, whereas in the presence of white noise, model neurons preferentially pass low frequency modulations of the mean current. Here, we prove that when the input variance is perturbed while holding the mean current constant, the PIF responds preferentially to high frequency modulations. Moreover, the linear filters for mean and variance modulations are complementary, adding exactly to one. Since changes in the rate of Poisson distributed inputs lead to proportional changes in the mean and variance, these results imply that an ensemble of PIF neurons transmits a perfect replica of the time-varying input rate for Poisson distributed input. A more general argument shows that this property holds for any signal leading to proportional changes in the mean and variance of the input current.

Kantowski-Sachs Einstein-æther perfect fluid models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Latta, Joey [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 3J5 (Canada); Leon, Genly [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad de Católica de Valparaíso, Casilla 4950, Valparaíso (Chile); Paliathanasis, Andronikos, E-mail: lattaj@mathstat.dal.ca, E-mail: genly.leon@pucv.cl, E-mail: anpaliat@phys.uoa.gr [Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia (Chile)

2016-11-01

We investigate Kantowski-Sachs models in Einstein-æ ther theory with a perfect fluid source using the singularity analysis to prove the integrability of the field equations and dynamical system tools to study the evolution. We find an inflationary source at early times, and an inflationary sink at late times, for a wide region in the parameter space. The results by A.A. Coley, G. Leon, P. Sandin and J. Latta ( JCAP 12 (2015) 010), are then re-obtained as particular cases. Additionally, we select other values for the non-GR parameters which are consistent with current constraints, getting a very rich phenomenology. In particular, we find solutions with infinite shear, zero curvature, and infinite matter energy density in comparison with the Hubble scalar. We also have stiff-like future attractors, anisotropic late-time attractors, or both, in some special cases. Such results are developed analytically, and then verified by numerics. Finally, the physical interpretation of the new critical points is discussed.

Perfect imaging without negative refraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leonhardt, Ulf [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom)], E-mail: ulf@st-andrews.ac.uk

2009-09-15

Perfect imaging has been believed to rely on negative refraction, but here we show that an ordinary positively refracting optical medium may form perfect images as well. In particular, we establish a mathematical proof that Maxwell's fish eye in two-dimensional (2D) integrated optics makes a perfect instrument with a resolution not limited by the wavelength of light. We also show how to modify the fish eye such that perfect imaging devices can be made in practice. Our method of perfect focusing may also find applications outside of optics, in acoustics, fluid mechanics or quantum physics, wherever waves obey the 2D Helmholtz equation.

Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

2005-01-01

The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Perfect commuting-operator strategies for linear system games

Science.gov (United States)

Cleve, Richard; Liu, Li; Slofstra, William

2017-01-01

Linear system games are a generalization of Mermin's magic square game introduced by Cleve and Mittal. They show that perfect strategies for linear system games in the tensor-product model of entanglement correspond to finite-dimensional operator solutions of a certain set of non-commutative equations. We investigate linear system games in the commuting-operator model of entanglement, where Alice and Bob's measurement operators act on a joint Hilbert space, and Alice's operators must commute with Bob's operators. We show that perfect strategies in this model correspond to possibly infinite-dimensional operator solutions of the non-commutative equations. The proof is based around a finitely presented group associated with the linear system which arises from the non-commutative equations.

Perfect sequences over the real quaternions

OpenAIRE

Kuznetsov, Oleg

2017-01-01

In this Thesis, perfect sequences over the real quaternions are first considered. Definitions for the right and left periodic autocorrelation functions are given, and right and left perfect sequences introduced. It is shown that the right (left) perfection of any sequence implies the left (right) perfection, so concepts of right and left perfect sequences over the real quaternions are equivalent. Unitary transformations of the quaternion space ℍ are then considered. Using the equivalence of t...

Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang

2017-08-01

User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

A forward model for ground penetrating radar imaging of buried perfect electric conductors within the physical optics approximation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polat, Burak; Meincke, Peter

2004-01-01

A forward model for ground penetrating radar imaging of buried 3-D perfect electric conductors is addressed within the framework of diffraction tomography. The similarity of the present forward model derived within the physical optics approximation with that derived within the first Born...

BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

1986-07-01

This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

Hamiltonian formalism for perfect fluids in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demaret, J.; Moncrief, V.

1980-01-01

Schutz's Hamiltonian theory of a relativistic perfect fluid, based on the velocity-potential version of classical perfect fluid hydrodynamics as formulated by Seliger and Whitham, is used to derive, in the framework of the Arnowitt, Deser, and Misner (ADM) method, a general partially reduced Hamiltonian for relativistic systems filled with a perfect fluid. The time coordinate is chosen, as in Lund's treatment of collapsing balls of dust, as minus the only velocity potential different from zero in the case of an irrotational and isentropic fluid. A ''semi-Dirac'' method can be applied to quantize astrophysical and cosmological models in the framework of this partially reduced formalism. If one chooses Taub's adapted comoving coordinate system, it is possible to derive a fully reduced ADM Hamiltonian, which is equal to minus the total baryon number of the fluid, generalizing a result previously obtained by Moncrief in the more particular framework of Taub's variational principle, valid for self-gravitating barotropic relativistic perfect fluids. An unconstrained Hamiltonian density is then explicitly derived for a fluid obeying the equation of state p=(gamma-1)rho (1 < or = γ < or = 2), which can adequately describe the phases of very high density attained in a catastrophic collapse or during the early stages of the Universe. This Hamiltonian density, shown to be equivalent to Moncrief's in the particular case of an isentropic fluid, can be simplified for fluid-filled class-A diagonal Bianchi-type cosmological models and appears as a suitable starting point for the study of the canonical quantization of these models

Perfect simulation of Hawkes processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

2005-01-01

Our objective is to construct a perfect simulation algorithm for unmarked and marked Hawkes processes. The usual straightforward simulation algorithm suffers from edge effects, whereas our perfect simulation algorithm does not. By viewing Hawkes processes as Poisson cluster processes and using...... their branching and conditional independence structures, useful approximations of the distribution function for the length of a cluster are derived. This is used to construct upper and lower processes for the perfect simulation algorithm. A tail-lightness condition turns out to be of importance...... for the applicability of the perfect simulation algorithm. Examples of applications and empirical results are presented....

Characterization of two-qubit perfect entanglers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rezakhani, A.T.

2004-01-01

Here we consider perfect entanglers from another perspective. It is shown that there are some special perfect entanglers which can maximally entangle a full product basis. We explicitly construct a one-parameter family of such entanglers together with the proper product basis that they maximally entangle. This special family of perfect entanglers contains some well-known operators such as controlled-NOT (CNOT) and double-CNOT, but not √(SWAP). In addition, it is shown that all perfect entanglers with entangling power equal to the maximal value (2/9) are also special perfect entanglers. It is proved that the one-parameter family is the only possible set of special perfect entanglers. Also we provide an analytic way to implement any arbitrary two-qubit gate, given a proper special perfect entangler supplemented with single-qubit gates. Such gates are shown to provide a minimum universal gate construction in that just two of them are necessary and sufficient in implementation of a generic two-qubit gate

Bianchi - I, II, VIII, IX and Kantowski-Sachs-like cosmological models with perfect fluid and electromagnetic fields with conductivity current

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Portugal, R.

1984-01-01

Three processes of solutions of the Einstein-Maxwell equations for Bianchi - I, II, VIII, IX and Kantowski-Sachs-like cosmological models with perfect fluid in magnetohydrolodynamical regimem are presented. Diagonal Bianchi-like models are considered with two anisotropy direction in the maximum. Solutions are found for Bianchi-II and IX-like models with energy conditions to be analyzed. Solutions are found for Bianchi-IX and Kantowski-Sachs-Like models with positive electric conductivity and satisfering to the predominant energy conditions. Solutions are formed for isotropic Kantowski-Sachs-Like models satisfering to the equation of state p=λρ, 0 0, admiting, in addition to the perfect fluid, electric field only. It is shown that a class of Bertotti-Robinson-like solutions is unstable by perturbations and it is carried in Kantowski-Sachs-like models with non-null electric conductivity. (L.C.) [pt

Robust Secure Authentication and Data Storage with Perfect Secrecy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sebastian Baur

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We consider an authentication process that makes use of biometric data or the output of a physical unclonable function (PUF, respectively, from an information theoretical point of view. We analyse different definitions of achievability for the authentication model. For the secrecy of the key generated for authentication, these definitions differ in their requirements. In the first work on PUF based authentication, weak secrecy has been used and the corresponding capacity regions have been characterized. The disadvantages of weak secrecy are well known. The ultimate performance criteria for the key are perfect secrecy together with uniform distribution of the key. We derive the corresponding capacity region. We show that, for perfect secrecy and uniform distribution of the key, we can achieve the same rates as for weak secrecy together with a weaker requirement on the distribution of the key. In the classical works on PUF based authentication, it is assumed that the source statistics are known perfectly. This requirement is rarely met in applications. That is why the model is generalized to a compound model, taking into account source uncertainty. We also derive the capacity region for the compound model requiring perfect secrecy. Additionally, we consider results for secure storage using a biometric or PUF source that follow directly from the results for authentication. We also generalize known results for this problem by weakening the assumption concerning the distribution of the data that shall be stored. This allows us to combine source compression and secure storage.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

2013-01-01

The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

2013-05-01

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

2009-01-01

Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

2004-01-01

.... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

Modeling and validation of directional reflectance for heterogeneous agro-forestry scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Yelu, Z.; Jing, L.; Qinhuo, L.; Huete, A. R.

2015-12-01

Landscape heterogeneity is a common natural phenomenon but is seldom considered in current radiative transfer models for predicting the surface reflectance. This paper developed an explicit analytical Radiative Transfer model for heterogeneous Agro-Forestry scenarios (RTAF) by dividing the scenario into non-boundary regions and boundary regions. The scattering contribution of the non-boundary regions that are treated as homogeneous canopies can be estimated from the SAILH model, whereas that of the boundary regions with lengths, widths, canopy heights, and orientations of the field patches, is calculated based on the bidirectional gap probability by considering the interactions and mutual shadowing effects among different patches. The hot spot factor is extended for heterogeneous scenarios, the Hapke model for soil anisotropy is incorporated, and the contributions of the direct and diffuse radiation are separately calculated. The multi-angular airborne observations and the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model simulations were used for validating and evaluating the RTAF model over an agro-forestry scenario in Heihe River Basin, China. It indicates that the RTAF model can accurately simulate the hemispherical-directional reflectance factors (HDRFs) of the heterogeneous agro-forestry scenario, with an RMSE of 0.0016 and 0.0179 in the red and near-infrared (NIR) bands, respectively. The RTAF model was compared with two widely used models, the dominant cover type (DCT) model and the spectral linear mixture (SLM) model, which either neglected the interactions and mutual shadowing effects between the shelterbets and crops, or did not account for the contribution of the shelterbets. Results suggest that the boundary effect can significantly influence the angular distribution of the HDRFs, and consequently enlarged the HDRF variations between the backward and forward directions in the principle plane. The RTAF model reduced the maximum relative error from 25

The Perfect Glass Paradigm: Disordered Hyperuniform Glasses Down to Absolute Zero

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, G.; Stillinger, F. H.; Torquato, S.

2016-11-01

Rapid cooling of liquids below a certain temperature range can result in a transition to glassy states. The traditional understanding of glasses includes their thermodynamic metastability with respect to crystals. However, here we present specific examples of interactions that eliminate the possibilities of crystalline and quasicrystalline phases, while creating mechanically stable amorphous glasses down to absolute zero temperature. We show that this can be accomplished by introducing a new ideal state of matter called a “perfect glass”. A perfect glass represents a soft-interaction analog of the maximally random jammed (MRJ) packings of hard particles. These latter states can be regarded as the epitome of a glass since they are out of equilibrium, maximally disordered, hyperuniform, mechanically rigid with infinite bulk and shear moduli, and can never crystallize due to configuration-space trapping. Our model perfect glass utilizes two-, three-, and four-body soft interactions while simultaneously retaining the salient attributes of the MRJ state. These models constitute a theoretical proof of concept for perfect glasses and broaden our fundamental understanding of glass physics. A novel feature of equilibrium systems of identical particles interacting with the perfect-glass potential at positive temperature is that they have a non-relativistic speed of sound that is infinite.

Perfect simulation of Hawkes processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

This article concerns a perfect simulation algorithm for unmarked and marked Hawkes processes. The usual stratihtforward simulation algorithm suffers from edge effects, whereas our perfect simulation algorithm does not. By viewing Hawkes processes as Poisson cluster processes and using...... their branching and conditional independence structure, useful approximations of the distribution function for the length of a cluster are derived. This is used to construct upper and lower processes for the perfect simulation algorithm. Examples of applications and empirical results are presented....

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

Possibilities of application of perfect solution model to calculation of equilibrium composition of complex carbonitrides and their solubility in steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gol'dshtejn, M.I.; Popov, V.V.; Cheremnykh, V.G.

1980-01-01

Using the Fe-Nb-V-C-N and Fe-Ti-V-C-N systems' low carbon steels, the earlier suggested model of perfect solid solutions has been experimentally researched. Also studied has been the feasibility to calculate the composition of carbonitrides in steels by the derived equations, that comprise, as parameters, products of respective compounds' solubility and coefficients of components interaction in iron-based solid solutions. A conclusion is drawn that perfect solutions models may be used adequately for complex carbonitrides like Nbsub(p)Vsub(1-p)Csub(q)Nsub(1-q) and Tisub(p)Vsub(1-p)Csub(q)Nsub(1-q) during the calculations of their equilibrium composition and solubility in steels

Perfect Liberty or Natural Liberty?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Stefan Gaarsmand

2012-01-01

The article investigates the concept of natural order as it is used by François Quesnay and Adam Smith in their respective economic writings. While Smith used the concept only after having visited Quesnay and the Physiocrats in France in the 1760s, in The Wealth of Nations he sought to negotiate...... the meaning of what was “natural” about economic life. The Physiocrats believed it possible to identify a model or a perfect regime of natural order – an order that they in fact thought to exist and function in China due to a rigorous system of economic laws. Smith sided with contemporary critics...... of this metaphysical vision of economic perfection (and of Chinese governance), but he suggested that the economic mechanisms of the physiocratic theories would remain intact even with a minimum of control by state laws. However, Smith’s balancing act on these questions remained disputed even by his Scottish...

Merits of a Scenario Approach in Dredge Plume Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Claus; Chu, Amy Ling Chu; Hjelmager Jensen, Jacob

2011-01-01

Dredge plume modelling is a key tool for quantification of potential impacts to inform the EIA process. There are, however, significant uncertainties associated with the modelling at the EIA stage when both dredging methodology and schedule are likely to be a guess at best as the dredging...... contractor would rarely have been appointed. Simulation of a few variations of an assumed full dredge period programme will generally not provide a good representation of the overall environmental risks associated with the programme. An alternative dredge plume modelling strategy that attempts to encapsulate...... uncertainties associated with preliminary dredging programmes by using a scenario-based modelling approach is presented. The approach establishes a set of representative and conservative scenarios for key factors controlling the spill and plume dispersion and simulates all combinations of e.g. dredge, climatic...

Generating perfect fluid spheres in general relativity

Science.gov (United States)

Boonserm, Petarpa; Visser, Matt; Weinfurtner, Silke

2005-06-01

Ever since Karl Schwarzschild’s 1916 discovery of the spacetime geometry describing the interior of a particular idealized general relativistic star—a static spherically symmetric blob of fluid with position-independent density—the general relativity community has continued to devote considerable time and energy to understanding the general-relativistic static perfect fluid sphere. Over the last 90 years a tangle of specific perfect fluid spheres has been discovered, with most of these specific examples seemingly independent from each other. To bring some order to this collection, in this article we develop several new transformation theorems that map perfect fluid spheres into perfect fluid spheres. These transformation theorems sometimes lead to unexpected connections between previously known perfect fluid spheres, sometimes lead to new previously unknown perfect fluid spheres, and in general can be used to develop a systematic way of classifying the set of all perfect fluid spheres.

Generating perfect fluid spheres in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boonserm, Petarpa; Visser, Matt; Weinfurtner, Silke

2005-01-01

Ever since Karl Schwarzschild's 1916 discovery of the spacetime geometry describing the interior of a particular idealized general relativistic star--a static spherically symmetric blob of fluid with position-independent density--the general relativity community has continued to devote considerable time and energy to understanding the general-relativistic static perfect fluid sphere. Over the last 90 years a tangle of specific perfect fluid spheres has been discovered, with most of these specific examples seemingly independent from each other. To bring some order to this collection, in this article we develop several new transformation theorems that map perfect fluid spheres into perfect fluid spheres. These transformation theorems sometimes lead to unexpected connections between previously known perfect fluid spheres, sometimes lead to new previously unknown perfect fluid spheres, and in general can be used to develop a systematic way of classifying the set of all perfect fluid spheres

Vaidya--Patel solution with Robertson--Walker metric as a rotating inflationary scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groen, O.; Soleng, H.H.

1988-01-01

The Vaidya--Patel solution of a rotating homogeneous fluid in the presence of a Maxwellian source-free electromagnetic field is interpretated as an inflationary scenario with a gauge field with local U(1) symmetry, a vacuum energy, and a rotating perfect fluid. An explicit solution is found to be expressible in terms of known solutions representing the radiation filled Robertson--Walker universe with a cosmological term. In the case that the rotating fluid is radiation, the discussion of the model is considerably simplified. How the time scale of transition into a pseudo-de Sitter stage, as observed by an observer following the rotating fluid, is affected by vorticity is also studied

Adaptation of the perfect linear model for ion beam formation to the case of plasma sources with electron electrostatic containment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coste, Ph.; Aubert, J.; Lejeune, C.

1991-01-01

The extensive development of ion beam technologies in the last years, in particular for thin film deposition and etching, poses the problem of predicting the behaviour of the ion beam from convenient models. One of the existing models, the 'perfect linear model', is easy to use and provides information about the geometrical parameters of the ion beam envelope. In this model, however, the plasma potential must be close to the plasma electrode potential. Now, ion sources with electrostatic containment of the ionizing electrons -very attractive because of their improved ionization efficiency - have a plasma potential higher than the plasma electrode potential. Thus, a space-charge sheath with a non-negligible thickness exists, which modifies the equilibrium conditions of the plasma meniscus and, therefore, the initial divergence of the ion beam. In this paper an adaptation of the perfect linear model for ion beam formation to the case of plasma sources with electron electrostatic containment is presented. (author)

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

2014-01-01

With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

Application of Convolution Perfectly Matched Layer in MRTD scattering model for non-spherical aerosol particles and its performance analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shuai; Gao, Taichang; Li, Hao; Yang, Bo; Jiang, Zidong; Liu, Lei; Chen, Ming

2017-10-01

The performance of absorbing boundary condition (ABC) is an important factor influencing the simulation accuracy of MRTD (Multi-Resolution Time-Domain) scattering model for non-spherical aerosol particles. To this end, the Convolution Perfectly Matched Layer (CPML), an excellent ABC in FDTD scheme, is generalized and applied to the MRTD scattering model developed by our team. In this model, the time domain is discretized by exponential differential scheme, and the discretization of space domain is implemented by Galerkin principle. To evaluate the performance of CPML, its simulation results are compared with those of BPML (Berenger's Perfectly Matched Layer) and ADE-PML (Perfectly Matched Layer with Auxiliary Differential Equation) for spherical and non-spherical particles, and their simulation errors are analyzed as well. The simulation results show that, for scattering phase matrices, the performance of CPML is better than that of BPML; the computational accuracy of CPML is comparable to that of ADE-PML on the whole, but at scattering angles where phase matrix elements fluctuate sharply, the performance of CPML is slightly better than that of ADE-PML. After orientation averaging process, the differences among the results of different ABCs are reduced to some extent. It also can be found that ABCs have a much weaker influence on integral scattering parameters (such as extinction and absorption efficiencies) than scattering phase matrices, this phenomenon can be explained by the error averaging process in the numerical volume integration.

TERNIRBU: Description of model and individual evaluation of model performance for scenario S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanyar, B.; Fueloep, N.

1996-01-01

The compartmental model used is realized as a procedure of the general purpose code TAMDYN for simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty calculations of dynamic models. More details of the model structure and parameters are given in the description of the VAMP MP Scenario CB. The difference between the climate in Finland and Central Bohemia was taken into consideration by shifting the seasonality function with 12 days' according to the weekly average temperature. The lake system and the contamination of fishes was simulated by the model SIRATEC used and validated in the BIOMOVS Scenario A5. The model was extended to two fish-compartments for roach and pike ones as a catanary system. For simulations the code TAMDYN was used. The doses were estimated from the time integrated concentrations of the proper components multiplied by the dose conversion factor. 4 figs

Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

2013-01-01

By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

Neoliberalism and Education in an International Perspective: Chile as Perfect Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Aravena

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In our modern society, governments, civil society and private sector are concerned about education as it is a key to build a successful community. This paper seeks to analyse, through one particular country, how the education system can change when neoliberalism is implemented as a framework in educational terms. This paper focuses on Chile and its education system adopting an international comparative perspective, using empirical examples and cases within a Latin America scenario. Chilean education system has created a controversial, complex and unique relationship between neoliberalism and education. This relationship has configured a complex social context increasing the gap between rich and poor. At the same time, Chilean education system has reproduced social classes in discourse and practice trough of a dramatic social stratification. In this particular case, we confirm that neoliberalism has generated an education system that is highly segregated and selective. Improvisation has been utilised as a political strategy to reduce neoliberal impacts on education.

Multi-channel coherent perfect absorbers

KAUST Repository

Bai, Ping

2016-05-18

The absorption efficiency of a coherent perfect absorber usually depends on the phase coherence of the incident waves on the surfaces. Here, we present a scheme to create a multi-channel coherent perfect absorber in which the constraint of phase coherence is loosened. The scheme has a multi-layer structure such that incident waves in different channels with different angular momenta can be simultaneously and perfectly absorbed. This absorber is robust in achieving high absorption efficiency even if the incident waves become "incoherent" and possess "random" wave fronts. Our work demonstrates a unique approach to designing highly efficient metamaterial absorbers. © CopyrightEPLA, 2016.

Multi-channel coherent perfect absorbers

KAUST Repository

Bai, Ping; Wu, Ying; Lai, Yun

2016-01-01

The absorption efficiency of a coherent perfect absorber usually depends on the phase coherence of the incident waves on the surfaces. Here, we present a scheme to create a multi-channel coherent perfect absorber in which the constraint of phase coherence is loosened. The scheme has a multi-layer structure such that incident waves in different channels with different angular momenta can be simultaneously and perfectly absorbed. This absorber is robust in achieving high absorption efficiency even if the incident waves become "incoherent" and possess "random" wave fronts. Our work demonstrates a unique approach to designing highly efficient metamaterial absorbers. © CopyrightEPLA, 2016.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Documentation and evaluation of model validation data used in scenario S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rantavaara, A.; Arvela, H.; Suomela, M.

1996-01-01

Most radioactive fallout received in Finland after the Chernobyl nuclear accident originated in the first major release and spread over the test region between April 27 and 29, 1986. Most radioactive material was deposited with heavy showers which caused an uneven areal distribution. Deposition continued with varying intensity until May 12. At the end of April the growing season had not yet begun in Finland. Estimation of the mean deposition density was one of the modelling tasks. To avoid a biased starting point for foodchain assessments due to modellers' own deposition estimates, the mean deposition density of 137 Cs in each subregion used in the scenario was given as input information. The model validation test was started as a blind test. All regional information in the scenario description was coded, and the first maps of subregions were schematic to hide the actual test area. The blind test idea was gradually cancelled in the course of the exercise. The geographical region S was revealed after deposition estimates were made. At the same time, sources of information in the open literature became available to the modellers. After the blind test phase, communication was encouraged between modellers and the compiler of the scenario description at the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) to avoid unnecessary misinterpretations of input information. Clarifications and additional information provided in the course of model calculations are included in the present scenario description. 100 refs, 31 figs, 67 tabs

Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

2015-09-01

This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

2007-01-01

Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

Science.gov (United States)

Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

2017-10-01

Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

1998-01-01

, SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

Overemphasis on Perfectly Competitive Markets in Microeconomics Principles Textbooks

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Roderick; Myatt, Anthony

2007-01-01

Microeconomic principles courses focus on perfectly competitive markets far more than other market structures. The authors examine five possible reasons for this but find none of them sufficiently compelling. They conclude that textbook authors should place more emphasis on how economists select appropriate models and test models' predictions…

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Geary

Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Assessment and modeling of inductive and non-inductive scenarios for ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, D.; Vayakis, G.; Moreau, D.

1999-01-01

This paper presents recent developments in modeling and simulations of ITER performances and scenarios. The first part presents an improved modeling of coupled divertor/main plasma operation including the simulation of the measurements involved in the control loop. The second part explores the fusion performances predicted under non-inductive operation with internal transport barrier. The final part covers a detailed scenario for non-inductive operation using a reverse shear configuration with lower hybrid and fast wave current drive. (author)

Bianchi Type-V model with a perfect fluid and Λ-term

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A self-consistent system of gravitational field with a binary mixture of perfect ... a form of quintessence, may explain the coincidence, adding a new motivation for .... hand, with the expansion of the universe, i.e., with the increase of V , the ...

Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoaib Ahmed

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

On 4-critical t-perfect graphs

OpenAIRE

Benchetrit, Yohann

2016-01-01

It is an open question whether the chromatic number of $t$-perfect graphs is bounded by a constant. The largest known value for this parameter is 4, and the only example of a 4-critical $t$-perfect graph, due to Laurent and Seymour, is the complement of the line graph of the prism $\\Pi$ (a graph is 4-critical if it has chromatic number 4 and all its proper induced subgraphs are 3-colorable). In this paper, we show a new example of a 4-critical $t$-perfect graph: the complement of the line gra...

Picture perfect

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pless, Mette; Sørensen, Niels Ulrik

’Picture perfect’ – when perfection becomes the new normal This paper draws on perspectives from three different studies. One study, which focuses on youth life and lack of well-being (Sørensen et al 2011), one study on youth life on the margins of society (Katznelson et al 2015) and one study...

Inter-Faith Reading of Perfect Man With Mystical Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Musavi

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The expression Insan –e kamil (perfect man is often said to have first been used by Muhyiddin ibn 'Arabi (1165 -1240AD, though the concept of the term is much older. In his theosophical teaching, the doctrine of insan e- kamil, is held a prominent place. After him two other great Sufis, Aziz Nasafi (1300AD and 'Abd al- karim ibn Ibrahim al- Jili (1366 – 1424 AD, each wrote a work on this very issue. These works are regarded as explanations of Ibn Arabi’s teachings on human perfection. In Islamic mysticism, Perfect man is the one who within their soul possesses all God's names and attributes. Thus the perfect man’s existence, reality and inner might become a clear mirror and a complete reflection of the Perfection, Beauty and Glory of the Essence of the One, so that he becomes Godlike. However, the idea of human perfectibility going back to other religions and human schools even before Islam. In Abrahimic religions there are some joint teachings that could be considered as main statements for the doctrine of Perfect Man In Jewish scriptures the notion of human creation in God's image suggests that the human being is able to be God's like and the perfection is available to him. However, Jews do not believe a perfect man. They hold that even Moses is not a perfect man. In Christianity, Although Jesus encourages his followers to be perfect like their heavenly fathers, the doctrine of original sin to be considered as an obstacle for human perfectibility.This essay examines some significant element in human perfectibility from the view points of some scholars of Judaism, Christianity and Islam and presents some similarities and differences of their view points.

Inter-Faith Reading of Perfect Man With Mystical Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammadkazem Shaker

2011-01-01

Full Text Available   The expression Insan –e kamil (perfect man is often said to have first been used by Muhyiddin ibn 'Arabi (1165 -1240AD, though the concept of the term is much older. In his theosophical teaching, the doctrine of insan e- kamil, is held a prominent place. After him two other great Sufis, Aziz Nasafi (1300AD and 'Abd al- karim ibn Ibrahim al- Jili (1366 – 1424 AD, each wrote a work on this very issue. These works are regarded as explanations of Ibn Arabi’s teachings on human perfection. In Islamic mysticism, Perfect man is the one who within their soul possesses all God's names and attributes. Thus the perfect man’s existence, reality and inner might become a clear mirror and a complete reflection of the Perfection, Beauty and Glory of the Essence of the One, so that he becomes Godlike. However, the idea of human perfectibility going back to other religions and human schools even before Islam. In Abrahimic religions there are some joint teachings that could be considered as main statements for the doctrine of Perfect Man In Jewish scriptures the notion of human creation in God's image suggests that the human being is able to be God's like and the perfection is available to him. However, Jews do not believe a perfect man. They hold that even Moses is not a perfect man. In Christianity, Although Jesus encourages his followers to be perfect like their heavenly fathers, the doctrine of original sin to be considered as an obstacle for human perfectibility.This essay examines some significant element in human perfectibility from the view points of some scholars of Judaism, Christianity and Islam and presents some similarities and differences of their view points.

Inter-Faith Reading of Perfect Man With Mystical Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaker, M.K

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The expression Insan –e kamil (perfect man is often said to have first been used by Muhyiddin ibn 'Arabi (1165 -1240AD, though the concept of the term is much older. In his theosophical teaching, the doctrine of insan e- kamil, is held a prominent place. After him two other great Sufis, Aziz Nasafi (1300AD and 'Abd al- karim ibn Ibrahim al- Jili (1366 – 1424 AD, each wrote a work on this very issue. These works are regarded as explanations of Ibn Arabi’s teachings on human perfection. In Islamic mysticism, Perfect man is the one who within their soul possesses all God's names and attributes. Thus the perfect man’s existence, reality and inner might become a clear mirror and a complete reflection of the Perfection, Beauty and Glory of the Essence of the One, so that he becomes Godlike. However, the idea of human perfectibility going back to other religions and human schools even before Islam. In Abrahimic religions there are some joint teachings that could be considered as main statements for the doctrine of Perfect Man In Jewish scriptures the notion of human creation in God's image suggests that the human being is able to be God's like and the perfection is available to him. However, Jews do not believe a perfect man. They hold that even Moses is not a perfect man. In Christianity, Although Jesus encourages his followers to be perfect like their heavenly fathers, the doctrine of original sin to be considered as an obstacle for human perfectibility.This essay examines some significant element in human perfectibility from the view points of some scholars of Judaism, Christianity and Islam and presents some similarities and differences of their view points.

Perfect secure domination in graphs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.V. Divya Rashmi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Let $G=(V,E$ be a graph. A subset $S$ of $V$ is a dominating set of $G$ if every vertex in $Vsetminus  S$ is adjacent to a vertex in $S.$ A dominating set $S$ is called a secure dominating set if for each $vin Vsetminus S$ there exists $uin S$ such that $v$ is adjacent to $u$ and $S_1=(Ssetminus{u}cup {v}$ is a dominating set. If further the vertex $uin S$ is unique, then $S$ is called a perfect secure dominating set. The minimum cardinality of a perfect secure dominating set of $G$ is called the perfect  secure domination number of $G$ and is denoted by $gamma_{ps}(G.$ In this paper we initiate a study of this parameter and present several basic results.

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Perfect and imperfect states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikitović Aleksandar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Early Greek ethics embodied in Cretan and Spartan mores, served as a model for Plato`s political theory. Plato theorized the contents of early Greek ethics, aspiring to justify and revitalize the fundamental principles of a traditional view of the world. However, according to Plato`s new insight, deed is further from the truth than a thought i.e. theory. The dorian model had to renounce its position to the perfect prototype of a righteous state, which is a result of the inner logic of philosophical theorizing in early Greek ethics. Prototype and model of philosophical reflection, in comparison to philosophical theory, becomes minor and deficient. Philosophical theorizing of early Greek ethics philosophically formatted Greek heritage, initiating substantial changes to the content of traditional ethics. Replacement of the myth with ontology, as a new foundation of politics, transformed early Greek ethics in various relevant ways. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179049

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

2014-01-13

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Critical phenomena at perfect and non-perfect surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pleimling, M

2004-01-01

In the past, perfect surfaces have been shown to yield local critical behaviour that differs from bulk critical behaviour. On the other hand, surface defects, whether they are of natural origin or created artificially, are known to modify local quantities. It is therefore important to clarify whether these defects are relevant or irrelevant for the surface critical behaviour. The purpose of this review is two-fold. In the first part we summarize some of the important results on surface criticality at perfect surfaces. Special attention is thereby paid to new developments such as for example the study of the surface critical behaviour in systems with competing interactions or of surface critical dynamics. In the second part the effect of surface defects (presence of edges, steps, quenched randomness, lines of adatoms, regular geometric patterns) on local critical behaviour in semi-infinite systems and in thin films is discussed in detail. Whereas most of the defects commonly encountered are shown to be irrelevant, some notable exceptions are highlighted. It is shown furthermore that under certain circumstances non-universal local critical behaviour may be observed at surfaces. (topical review)

Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

2008-07-01

In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

Modern problems of perfection of elite light athletic sportsmen’s technical skillfulness perfection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Kolot

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose: perfection of elite sportsmen’s technical skillfulness in competition kinds of light athletic. Material: the data of more than 60 literature sources were systemized. Expert questioning of 36 coaches, having experience of work with elite sportsmen, was carried out; documents of training process planning were analyzed as well as sportsmen’s diaries (n=244. Results: we have presented main principles of sportsmen’s technical skillfulness perfection and elucidated characteristics of technical training methodic. We have determined main priorities of technical training building for light athletes at every stage of many years’ perfection. Dynamic of competition practice volume has been found as well as main requirements to selection of training means of technical orientation. The data of bio-mechanical criteria of sportsmen’s technical skillfulness assessment have been supplemented. Conclusions: effectiveness of sportsmen’s training methodic is determined by realization of previous stages’ technical potential in final competition results. It can be achieved by determination of means of and methods of different orientation rational correlation.

Modern problems of perfection of elite light athletic sportsmen’s technical skillfulness perfection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kolot A.V.

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: perfection of elite sportsmen’s technical skillfulness in competition kinds of light athletic. Material: the data of more than 60 literature sources were systemized. Expert questioning of 36 coaches, having experience of work with elite sportsmen, was carried out; documents of training process planning were analyzed as well as sportsmen’s diaries (n=244. Results: we have presented main principles of sportsmen’s technical skillfulness perfection and elucidated characteristics of technical training methodic. We have determined main priorities of technical training building for light athletes at every stage of many years’ perfection. Dynamic of competition practice volume has been found as well as main requirements to selection of training means of technical orientation. The data of bio-mechanical criteria of sportsmen’s technical skillfulness assessment have been supplemented. Conclusions: effectiveness of sportsmen’s training methodic is determined by realization of previous stages’ technical potential in final competition results. It can be achieved by determination of means of and methods of different orientation rational correlation.

Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuzhyk Kateryna

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

Exogenous empirical-evidence equilibria in perfect-monitoring repeated games yield correlated equilibria

KAUST Repository

Dudebout, Nicolas; Shamma, Jeff S.

2014-01-01

This paper proves that exogenous empirical-evidence equilibria (xEEEs) in perfect-monitoring repeated games induce correlated equilibria of the associated one-shot game. An empirical-evidence equilibrium (EEE) is a solution concept for stochastic games. At equilibrium, agents' strategies are optimal with respect to models of their opponents. These models satisfy a consistency condition with respect to the actual behavior of the opponents. As such, EEEs replace the full-rationality requirement of Nash equilibria by a consistency-based bounded-rationality one. In this paper, the framework of empirical evidence is summarized, with an emphasis on perfect-monitoring repeated games. A less constraining notion of consistency is introduced. The fact that an xEEE in a perfect-monitoring repeated game induces a correlated equilibrium on the underlying one-shot game is proven. This result and the new notion of consistency are illustrated on the hawk-dove game. Finally, a method to build specific correlated equilibria from xEEEs is derived.

Exogenous empirical-evidence equilibria in perfect-monitoring repeated games yield correlated equilibria

KAUST Repository

Dudebout, Nicolas

2014-12-15

This paper proves that exogenous empirical-evidence equilibria (xEEEs) in perfect-monitoring repeated games induce correlated equilibria of the associated one-shot game. An empirical-evidence equilibrium (EEE) is a solution concept for stochastic games. At equilibrium, agents\\' strategies are optimal with respect to models of their opponents. These models satisfy a consistency condition with respect to the actual behavior of the opponents. As such, EEEs replace the full-rationality requirement of Nash equilibria by a consistency-based bounded-rationality one. In this paper, the framework of empirical evidence is summarized, with an emphasis on perfect-monitoring repeated games. A less constraining notion of consistency is introduced. The fact that an xEEE in a perfect-monitoring repeated game induces a correlated equilibrium on the underlying one-shot game is proven. This result and the new notion of consistency are illustrated on the hawk-dove game. Finally, a method to build specific correlated equilibria from xEEEs is derived.

Stochastic Channel Modeling for Railway Tunnel Scenarios at 25 GHz

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danping He

2018-02-01

Full Text Available More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high‐data‐rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the “Mobile Hotspot Network” system, a three‐dimensional ray tracer (RT is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500‐MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd‐Generation‐Partnership‐Project‐like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link‐level and system‐level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.

THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann; Hernelind, Jan

2010-03-01

A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code B right. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

2010-03-15

A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Léo eBenichou

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

Science.gov (United States)

Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

2015-01-01

In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Hypersurface-homogeneous Universe filled with perfect fluid in f ( R ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

homogeneous Universe filled with perfect fluid in the framework of f ( R , T ) theory of gravity (Harko et al, \\emph{Phys. Rev.} D 84, 024020 (2011)) is derived. The physical behaviour of the cosmological model is studied.

Lattice-Like Total Perfect Codes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Araujo Carlos

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A contribution is made to the classification of lattice-like total perfect codes in integer lattices Λn via pairs (G, Φ formed by abelian groups G and homomorphisms Φ: Zn → G. A conjecture is posed that the cited contribution covers all possible cases. A related conjecture on the unfinished work on open problems on lattice-like perfect dominating sets in Λn with induced components that are parallel paths of length > 1 is posed as well.

A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ninna Reitzel Jensen

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

2017-01-01

Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform...

Model checking coalitional games in shortage resource scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dario Della Monica

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Verification of multi-agents systems (MAS has been recently studied taking into account the need of expressing resource bounds. Several logics for specifying properties of MAS have been presented in quite a variety of scenarios with bounded resources. In this paper, we study a different formalism, called Priced Resource-Bounded Alternating-time Temporal Logic (PRBATL, whose main novelty consists in moving the notion of resources from a syntactic level (part of the formula to a semantic one (part of the model. This allows us to track the evolution of the resource availability along the computations and provides us with a formalisms capable to model a number of real-world scenarios. Two relevant aspects are the notion of global availability of the resources on the market, that are shared by the agents, and the notion of price of resources, depending on their availability. In a previous work of ours, an initial step towards this new formalism was introduced, along with an EXPTIME algorithm for the model checking problem. In this paper we better analyze the features of the proposed formalism, also in comparison with previous approaches. The main technical contribution is the proof of the EXPTIME-hardness of the the model checking problem for PRBATL, based on a reduction from the acceptance problem for Linearly-Bounded Alternating Turing Machines. In particular, since the problem has multiple parameters, we show two fixed-parameter reductions.

Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashley B Bennett

Full Text Available In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

2011-01-01

In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

Modeling the Greek energy system: Scenarios of clean energy use and their implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roinioti, Argiro; Koroneos, Christopher; Wangensteen, Ivar

2012-01-01

The Greek energy system is one of the most carbon intensive energy systems in Europe. Hydrocarbons and solid fuels (lignite) cover over 80% of the final energy demand. The main objective of this work is to build energy scenarios for the future – with a focus on the electricity production system – and explore how these scenarios are reflected in economic, environmental terms and in terms of energy efficiency. The main tool which is used in the scenario analysis is LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System). The scenarios are essentially the result of developing “storylines” driven by the uncertainties which cannot be controlled by the analysts or decision makers, and technical and non-technical options the analyst or decision maker may choose from. A set of uncertainties is considered as a possible future or storyline, and one or more options can be selected as a possible strategy. The combination of a storyline and a specific strategy gives a scenario. The main uncertainties for the Greek energy system are identified and various technical options are explored. Rather than using a model which leads to optimum strategies from a set of alternatives, the model in use will apply different strategies. - Highlights: ► A demand-driven approach was used to build energy scenarios for the Greek interconnected system. ► Each Scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy. ► High RES penetration will decrease CO 2 emissions but it will also increase capital cost. ► Carbon intensity is reduced in all the scenarios.

Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shawn R. Francis

2011-12-01

We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

2017-12-01

Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

Perfect simulation and moment properties for the Matérn type III process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Huber, Mark L.; Wolpert, Robert L.

2010-01-01

In a seminal work, Bertil Matérn introduced several types of processes for modeling repulsive point processes. In this paper an algorithm is presented for the perfect simulation of the Matérn III process within a bounded window in , fully accounting for edge effects. A simple upper bound on the m......In a seminal work, Bertil Matérn introduced several types of processes for modeling repulsive point processes. In this paper an algorithm is presented for the perfect simulation of the Matérn III process within a bounded window in , fully accounting for edge effects. A simple upper bound...

Bianchi type-I massive string magnetized barotropic perfect fluid

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Bianchi type-I massive string cosmological model for perfect fluid distribution in the presence of magnetic field is investigated in Rosen's [Gen. Relativ. Gravit. 4, 435 (1973)] bimetric theory of gravitation. To obtain the deterministic model in terms of cosmic time, we have used the condition A = ( B C ) n , where n is a constant, ...

Dark matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac gauginos

CERN Document Server

Goodsell, Mark D.; Müller, Tobias; Porod, Werner; Staub, Florian

2015-01-01

We perform the first analysis of Dark Matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac Gauginos. The model under investigation is the Constrained Minimal Dirac Gaugino Supersymmetric Standard model (CMDGSSM) where the Majorana mass terms of gauginos vanish. However, $R$-symmetry is broken in the Higgs sector by an explicit and/or effective $B_\\mu$-term. This causes a mass splitting between Dirac states in the fermion sector and the neutralinos, which provide the dark matter candidate, become pseudo-Dirac states. We discuss two scenarios: the universal case with all scalar masses unified at the GUT scale, and the case with non-universal Higgs soft-terms. We identify different regions in the parameter space which fullfil all constraints from the dark matter abundance, the limits from SUSY and direct dark matter searches and the Higgs mass. Most of these points can be tested with the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments.

Polytropic solutions of a perfect fluid in spatial n-dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luiz, Fabricio Casarejos Lopes; Rocha, Jaime F. Villas da

2005-01-01

We found all the solutions of a polytropic state equation for a n-dimensional metric associated to a perfect fluid. Some of them represent gravitational collapse with black hole or naked singularity formation. We found also an accelerating cosmological model. (author)

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

2015-01-01

Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Liu

Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

2014-01-01

Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

2017-08-02

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

PERFECTED enhanced recovery (PERFECT-ER) care versus standard acute care for patients admitted to acute settings with hip fracture identified as experiencing confusion: study protocol for a feasibility cluster randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Simon P; Cross, Jane L; Shepstone, Lee; Backhouse, Tamara; Henderson, Catherine; Poland, Fiona; Sims, Erika; MacLullich, Alasdair; Penhale, Bridget; Howard, Robert; Lambert, Nigel; Varley, Anna; Smith, Toby O; Sahota, Opinder; Donell, Simon; Patel, Martyn; Ballard, Clive; Young, John; Knapp, Martin; Jackson, Stephen; Waring, Justin; Leavey, Nick; Howard, Gregory; Fox, Chris

2017-12-04

Health and social care provision for an ageing population is a global priority. Provision for those with dementia and hip fracture has specific and growing importance. Older people who break their hip are recognised as exceptionally vulnerable to experiencing confusion (including but not exclusively, dementia and/or delirium and/or cognitive impairment(s)) before, during or after acute admissions. Older people experiencing hip fracture and confusion risk serious complications, linked to delayed recovery and higher mortality post-operatively. Specific care pathways acknowledging the differences in patient presentation and care needs are proposed to improve clinical and process outcomes. This protocol describes a multi-centre, feasibility, cluster-randomised, controlled trial (CRCT) to be undertaken across ten National Health Service hospital trusts in the UK. The trial will explore the feasibility of undertaking a CRCT comparing the multicomponent PERFECTED enhanced recovery intervention (PERFECT-ER), which acknowledges the differences in care needs of confused older patients experiencing hip fracture, with standard care. The trial will also have an integrated process evaluation to explore how PERFECT-ER is implemented and interacts with the local context. The study will recruit 400 hip fracture patients identified as experiencing confusion and will also recruit "suitable informants" (individuals in regular contact with participants who will complete proxy measures). We will also recruit NHS professionals for the process evaluation. This mixed methods design will produce data to inform a definitive evaluation of the intervention via a large-scale pragmatic randomised controlled trial (RCT). The trial will provide a preliminary estimate of potential efficacy of PERFECT-ER versus standard care; assess service delivery variation, inform primary and secondary outcome selection, generate estimates of recruitment and retention rates, data collection difficulties, and

A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juselius, Katarina

2017-01-01

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model's shock structure and steady...

A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn Merrick

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

Non-adiabatic perturbations in multi-component perfect fluids

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koshelev, N.A., E-mail: koshna71@inbox.ru [Ulyanovsk State University, Leo Tolstoy str 42, 432970 (Russian Federation)

2011-04-01

The evolution of non-adiabatic perturbations in models with multiple coupled perfect fluids with non-adiabatic sound speed is considered. Instead of splitting the entropy perturbation into relative and intrinsic parts, we introduce a set of symmetric quantities, which also govern the non-adiabatic pressure perturbation in models with energy transfer. We write the gauge invariant equations for the variables that determine on a large scale the non-adiabatic pressure perturbation and the rate of changes of the comoving curvature perturbation. The analysis of evolution of the non-adiabatic pressure perturbation has been made for several particular models.

Non-adiabatic perturbations in multi-component perfect fluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koshelev, N.A.

2011-01-01

The evolution of non-adiabatic perturbations in models with multiple coupled perfect fluids with non-adiabatic sound speed is considered. Instead of splitting the entropy perturbation into relative and intrinsic parts, we introduce a set of symmetric quantities, which also govern the non-adiabatic pressure perturbation in models with energy transfer. We write the gauge invariant equations for the variables that determine on a large scale the non-adiabatic pressure perturbation and the rate of changes of the comoving curvature perturbation. The analysis of evolution of the non-adiabatic pressure perturbation has been made for several particular models

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer K. Costanza

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Running scenarios using the Waste Tank Safety and Operations Hanford Site model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stahlman, E.J.

1995-11-01

Management of the Waste Tank Safety and Operations (WTS ampersand O) at Hanford is a large and complex task encompassing 177 tanks and having a budget of over $500 million per year. To assist managers in this task, a model based on system dynamics was developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model simulates the WTS ampersand O at the Hanford Tank Farms by modeling the planning, control, and flow of work conducted by Managers, Engineers, and Crafts. The model is described in Policy Analysis of Hanford Tank Farm Operations with System Dynamics Approach (Kwak 1995b) and Management Simulator for Hanford Tank Farm Operations (Kwak 1995a). This document provides guidance for users of the model in developing, running, and analyzing results of management scenarios. The reader is assumed to have an understanding of the model and its operation. Important parameters and variables in the model are described, and two scenarios are formulated as examples

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Cluster Risk of Walking Scenarios Based on Macroscopic Flow Model and Crowding Force Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohong Li

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In recent years, accidents always happen in confined space such as metro stations because of congestion. Various researchers investigated the patterns of dense crowd behaviors in different scenarios via simulations or experiments and proposed methods for avoiding accidents. In this study, a classic continuum macroscopic model was applied to simulate the crowded pedestrian flow in typical scenarios such as at bottlenecks or with an obstacle. The Lax–Wendroff finite difference scheme and artificial viscosity filtering method were used to discretize the model to identify high-density risk areas. Furthermore, we introduced a contact crowding force test of the interactions among pedestrians at bottlenecks. Results revealed that in the most dangerous area, the individual on the corner position bears the maximum pressure in such scenarios is 90.2 N, and there is an approximate exponential relationship between crowding force and density indicated by our data. The results and findings presented in this paper can facilitate more reasonable and precise simulation models by utilizing crowding force and crowd density and ensure the safety of pedestrians in high-density scenarios.

Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

2017-11-01

In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

Normal and Abnormal Scenario Modeling with GoldSim for Radioactive Waste Disposal System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Youn Myoung; Jeong, Jong Tae

2010-08-01

A modeling study and development of a total system performance assessment (TSPA) template program, by which an assessment of safety and performance for the radioactive waste repository with normal and/or abnormal nuclide release cases could be assessed has been carried out by utilizing a commercial development tool program, GoldSim. Scenarios associated with the various FEPs and involved in the performance of the proposed repository in view of nuclide transport and transfer both in the geosphere and biosphere has been also carried out. Selected normal and abnormal scenarios that could alter groundwater flow scheme and then nuclide transport are modeled with the template program. To this end in-depth system models for the normal and abnormal well and earthquake scenarios that are conceptually and rather practically described and then ready for implementing into a GoldSim TSPA template program are introduced with conceptual schemes for each repository system. Illustrative evaluations with data currently available are also shown

The Perfect Text.

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Ruth

1998-01-01

A chemistry teacher describes the elements of the ideal chemistry textbook. The perfect text is focused and helps students draw a coherent whole out of the myriad fragments of information and interpretation. The text would show chemistry as the central science necessary for understanding other sciences and would also root chemistry firmly in the…

Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-04-01

In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

Overlapped optics induced perfect coherent effects

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jian Jie; Zang, Xiao Fei; Mao, Jun Fa; Tang, Min; Zhu, Yi Ming; Zhuang, Song Lin

2013-12-01

For traditional coherent effects, two separated identical point sources can be interfered with each other only when the optical path difference is integer number of wavelengths, leading to alternate dark and bright fringes for different optical path difference. For hundreds of years, such a perfect coherent condition seems insurmountable. However, in this paper, based on transformation optics, two separated in-phase identical point sources can induce perfect interference with each other without satisfying the traditional coherent condition. This shifting illusion media is realized by inductor-capacitor transmission line network. Theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and experimental results are performed to confirm such a kind of perfect coherent effect and it is found that the total radiation power of multiple elements system can be greatly enhanced. Our investigation may be applicable to National Ignition Facility (NIF), Inertial Confined Fusion (ICF) of China, LED lighting technology, terahertz communication, and so on.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggang Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khamma Homsysavath

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

A new characterization of trivially perfect graphs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Rubio Montiel

2015-03-01

Full Text Available A graph $G$ is \\emph{trivially perfect} if for every induced subgraph the cardinality of the largest set of pairwise nonadjacent vertices (the stability number $\\alpha(G$ equals the number of (maximal cliques $m(G$. We characterize the trivially perfect graphs in terms of vertex-coloring and we extend some definitions to infinite graphs.

LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger defined...

LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger...

Lattice fluid dynamics from perfect discretizations of continuum flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katz, E.; Wiese, U.

1998-01-01

We use renormalization group methods to derive equations of motion for large scale variables in fluid dynamics. The large scale variables are averages of the underlying continuum variables over cubic volumes and naturally exist on a lattice. The resulting lattice dynamics represents a perfect discretization of continuum physics, i.e., grid artifacts are completely eliminated. Perfect equations of motion are derived for static, slow flows of incompressible, viscous fluids. For Hagen-Poiseuille flow in a channel with a square cross section the equations reduce to a perfect discretization of the Poisson equation for the velocity field with Dirichlet boundary conditions. The perfect large scale Poisson equation is used in a numerical simulation and is shown to represent the continuum flow exactly. For nonsquare cross sections one can use a numerical iterative procedure to derive flow equations that are approximately perfect. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

2015-01-01

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

The pursuit of perfect packing

CERN Document Server

Weaire, Denis

2008-01-01

Coauthored by one of the creators of the most efficient space packing solution, the Weaire-Phelan structure, The Pursuit of Perfect Packing, Second Edition explores a problem of importance in physics, mathematics, chemistry, biology, and engineering: the packing of structures. Maintaining its mathematical core, this edition continues and revises some of the stories from its predecessor while adding several new examples and applications. The book focuses on both scientific and everyday problems ranging from atoms to honeycombs. It describes packing models, such as the Kepler conjecture, Voronoï decomposition, and Delaunay decomposition, as well as actual structure models, such as the Kelvin cell and the Weaire-Phelan structure. The authors discuss numerous historical aspects and provide biographical details on influential contributors to the field, including emails from Thomas Hales and Ken Brakke. With examples from physics, crystallography, engineering, and biology, this accessible and whimsical bo...

Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grogan, H.

1985-03-01

In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

California's Perfect Storm

Science.gov (United States)

Bacon, David

2010-01-01

The United States today faces an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nowhere is it sharper than in the nation's schools. Last year, California saw a perfect storm of protest in virtually every part of its education system. K-12 teachers built coalitions with parents and students to fight for their jobs and their…

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Optimal simulation of a perfect entangler

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Nengkun; Duan Runyao; Ying Mingsheng

2010-01-01

A 2 x 2 unitary operation is called a perfect entangler if it can generate a maximally entangled state from some unentangled input. We study the following question: How many runs of a given two-qubit entangling unitary operation are required to simulate some perfect entangler with one-qubit unitary operations as free resources? We completely solve this problem by presenting an analytical formula for the optimal number of runs of the entangling operation. Our result reveals an entanglement strength of two-qubit unitary operations.

Optically Modulated Multiband Terahertz Perfect Absorber

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seren, Huseyin R.; Keiser, George R.; Cao, Lingyue

2014-01-01

response of resonant metamaterials continues to be a challengingendeavor. Resonant perfect absorbers have flourished as one of the mostpromising metamaterial devices with applications ranging from power har-vesting to terahertz imaging. Here, an optically modulated resonant perfectabsorber is presented....... Utilizing photo-excited free carriers in silicon padsplaced in the capacitive gaps of split ring resonators, a dynamically modu-lated perfect absorber is designed and fabricated to operate in reflection.Large modulation depth (38% and 91%) in two absorption bands (with 97%and 92% peak absorption...

Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

2013-01-01

This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

2013-07-01

This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

Everybody's Different Nobody's Perfect

Science.gov (United States)

... traten ni qué edad tengan — eso se llama “DISCAPACIDAD.” Some kids have a disability because their muscles ... have one? ¿Conoces a alguien que tenga una discapacidad? ¿Tienes una tú? Everybody’s different, nobody’s perfect. So ...

Visible light broadband perfect absorbers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jia, X. L.; Meng, Q. X.; Yuan, C. X.; Zhou, Z. X.; Wang, X. O., E-mail: wxo@hit.edu.cn [School of Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China)

2016-03-15

The visible light broadband perfect absorbers based on the silver (Ag) nano elliptical disks and holes array are studied using finite difference time domain simulations. The semiconducting indium silicon dioxide thin film is introduced as the space layer in this sandwiched structure. Utilizing the asymmetrical geometry of the structures, polarization sensitivity for transverse electric wave (TE)/transverse magnetic wave (TM) and left circular polarization wave (LCP)/right circular polarization wave (RCP) of the broadband absorption are gained. The absorbers with Ag nano disks and holes array show several peaks absorbance of 100% by numerical simulation. These simple and flexible perfect absorbers are particularly desirable for various potential applications including the solar energy absorber.

Model-Checking an Alternating-time Temporal Logic with Knowledge, Imperfect Information, Perfect Recall and Communicating Coalitions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cătălin Dima

2010-06-01

Full Text Available We present a variant of ATL with distributed knowledge operators based on a synchronous and perfect recall semantics. The coalition modalities in this logic are based on partial observation of the full history, and incorporate a form of cooperation between members of the coalition in which agents issue their actions based on the distributed knowledge, for that coalition, of the system history. We show that model-checking is decidable for this logic. The technique utilizes two variants of games with imperfect information and partially observable objectives, as well as a subset construction for identifying states whose histories are indistinguishable to the considered coalition.

Prediction of irradiation damage effects by multi-scale modelling: EURATOM 3 Framework integrated project perfect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Massoud, J.P.; Bugat, St.; Marini, B.; Lidbury, D.; Van Dyck, St.; Debarberis, L.

2008-01-01

Full text of publication follows. In nuclear PWRs, materials undergo degradation due to severe irradiation conditions that may limit their operational life. Utilities operating these reactors must quantify the aging and the potential degradations of reactor pressure vessels and also of internal structures to ensure safe and reliable plant operation. The EURATOM 6. Framework Integrated Project PERFECT (Prediction of Irradiation Damage Effects in Reactor Components) addresses irradiation damage in RPV materials and components by multi-scale modelling. This state-of-the-art approach offers potential advantages over the conventional empirical methods used in current practice of nuclear plant lifetime management. Launched in January 2004, this 48-month project is focusing on two main components of nuclear power plants which are subject to irradiation damage: the ferritic steel reactor pressure vessel and the austenitic steel internals. This project is also an opportunity to integrate the fragmented research and experience that currently exists within Europe in the field of numerical simulation of radiation damage and creates the links with international organisations involved in similar projects throughout the world. Continuous progress in the physical understanding of the phenomena involved in irradiation damage and continuous progress in computer sciences make possible the development of multi-scale numerical tools able to simulate the effects of irradiation on materials microstructure. The consequences of irradiation on mechanical and corrosion properties of materials are also tentatively modelled using such multi-scale modelling. But it requires to develop different mechanistic models at different levels of physics and engineering and to extend the state of knowledge in several scientific fields. And the links between these different kinds of models are particularly delicate to deal with and need specific works. Practically the main objective of PERFECT is to build

Two-perfect fluid interpretation of an energy tensor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrando, J.J.; Morales, J.A.; Portilla, M.

1990-01-01

There are many topics in General Relativity where matter is represented by a mixture of two fluids. In fact, some astrophysical and cosmological situations need to be described by an energy tensor made up of the sum of two or more perfect fluids rather than that with only one. The paper contains the necessary and sufficient conditions for a given energy tensor to be interpreted as a sum of two perfect fluids. Given a tensor of this class, the decomposition in two perfect fluids (which is determined up to a couple of real functions) is obtained

A cross-linguistic discourse analysis of the perfect

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Swart, Henriëtte de

2007-01-01

Since Reichenbach (1947), the Present Perfect has been discussed in relation to the Simple Past. The Reichenbachian characterization E-R,S has led to the view that the English Present Perfect, with its restrictions on modification by time adverbials and its resistance to narrative structure is the

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

2017-11-01

Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

A Comparative Study of Marketing Channel Multiagent Stackelberg Model Based on Perfect Rationality and Fairness Preference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaihong Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies channel consisting of a manufacturer and two retailers. As a basis for comparison, the first, multiagent Stackelberg model has been structured based on perfect rationality. Further, fairness preference theory will be embedded in marketing channel multiagent Stackelberg model, and the results show that if the retailers have a jealous fairness preference, the manufacturer will reduce the wholesale price, retailers will increase the effort level, product sales will be increased, and the total channel utility and manufacturers’ utility will be pareto improvement, but the pareto improvement of retailers’ utility is associated with the interval of jealousy fairness preference coefficient. If the retailers have a sympathetic fairness preference, the manufacturer increases wholesale price, retailers reduce the effort level, and the total channel utility, manufacturer’s utility, and retailers’ utility are less than that of the no fairness preference utility.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schreiner, GO

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

1994-01-01

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

Lorentz invariant noncommutative algebra for cosmological models coupled to a perfect fluid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abreu, Everton M.C.; Marcial, Mateus V.; Mendes, Albert C.R.; Oliveira, Wilson

2013-01-01

Full text: In current theoretical physics there is a relevant number of theoretical investigations that lead to believe that at the first moments of our Universe, the geometry was not commutative and the dominating physics at that time was ruled by the laws of noncommutative (NC) geometry. Therefore, the idea is that the physics of the early moments can be constructed based on these concepts. The first published work using the idea of a NC spacetime were carried out by Snyder who believed that NC principles could make the quantum field theory infinities disappear. However, it did not occur and Snyder's ideas were put to sleep for a long time. The main modern motivations that rekindle the investigation about NC field theories came from string theory and quantum gravity. In the context of quantum mechanics for example, R. Banerjee discussed how NC structures appear in planar quantum mechanics providing a useful way for obtaining them. The analysis was based on the NC algebra used in planar quantum mechanics that was originated from 't Hooft's analysis on dissipation and quantization. In this work we carry out a NC algebra analysis of the Friedmann-Robert-Walker model, coupled to a perfect fluid and in the presence of a cosmological constant. The classical field equations are modified, by the introduction of a shift operator, in order to introduce noncommutativity in these models. (author)

Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

A passive cold storage device economic model to evaluate selected immunization location scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, Bryan A; Nourollahi, Sevnaz; Chen, Sheng-I; Brown, Shawn T; Claypool, Erin G; Connor, Diana L; Schmitz, Michelle M; Rajgopal, Jayant; Wateska, Angela R; Lee, Bruce Y

2013-10-25

The challenge of keeping vaccines cold at health posts given the unreliability of power sources in many low- and middle-income countries and the expense and maintenance requirements of solar refrigerators has motivated the development of passive cold storage devices (PCDs), containers that keep vaccines cold without using an active energy source. With different PCDs under development, manufacturers, policymakers and funders need guidance on how varying different PCD characteristics may affect the devices' cost and utility. We developed an economic spreadsheet model representing the lowest two levels of a typical Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccine supply chain: a district store, the immunization locations that the district store serves, and the transport vehicles that operate between the district store and the immunization locations. The model compares the use of three vaccine storage device options [(1) portable PCDs, (2) stationary PCDs, or (3) solar refrigerators] and allows the user to vary different device (e.g., size and cost) and scenario characteristics (e.g., catchment area population size and vaccine schedule). For a sample set of select scenarios and equipment specification, we found the portable PCD to generally be better suited to populations of 5,000 or less. The stationary PCD replenished once per month can be a robust design especially with a 35L capacity and a cost of $2,500 or less. The solar device was generally a reasonable alternative for most of the scenarios explored if the cost was $2,100 or less (including installation). No one device type dominated over all explored circumstances. Therefore, the best device may vary from country-to-country and location-to-location within a country. This study introduces a quantitative model to help guide PCD development. Although our selected set of explored scenarios and device designs was not exhaustive, future explorations can further alter model input values to represent additional scenarios

Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cyril Montabert

2007-02-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

Propagation Path Loss Models for 5G Urban Micro- and Macro-Cellular Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sun, Shu; Rappaport, Theodore S.; Rangan, Sundeep

2016-01-01

This paper presents and compares two candidate large-scale propagation path loss models, the alpha-beta-gamma (ABG) model and the close-in (CI) free space reference distance model, for the design of fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban micro- and macro-cellular scenarios....

Forbidden Structures for Planar Perfect Consecutively Colourable Graphs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Borowiecka-Olszewska Marta

2017-05-01

Full Text Available A consecutive colouring of a graph is a proper edge colouring with posi- tive integers in which the colours of edges incident with each vertex form an interval of integers. The idea of this colouring was introduced in 1987 by Asratian and Kamalian under the name of interval colouring. Sevast- janov showed that the corresponding decision problem is NP-complete even restricted to the class of bipartite graphs. We focus our attention on the class of consecutively colourable graphs whose all induced subgraphs are consecutively colourable, too. We call elements of this class perfect consecutively colourable to emphasise the conceptual similarity to perfect graphs. Obviously, the class of perfect consecutively colourable graphs is induced hereditary, so it can be characterized by the family of induced forbidden graphs. In this work we give a necessary and sufficient conditions that must be satisfied by the generalized Sevastjanov rosette to be an induced forbid- den graph for the class of perfect consecutively colourable graphs. Along the way, we show the exact values of the deficiency of all generalized Sevastjanov rosettes, which improves the earlier known estimating result. It should be mentioned that the deficiency of a graph measures its closeness to the class of consecutively colourable graphs. We motivate the investigation of graphs considered here by showing their connection to the class of planar perfect consecutively colourable graphs.

Inhomogeneous generalizations of Bianchi Type VIh universes with stiff perfect fluid and radiation

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, S. R.; Prasad, A.

1995-03-01

Families of inhomogeneous models filled with a stiff perfect fluid and radiation have been derived in which there is no flow of total momentum. The models are generalizations of those of Bianchi Type VIh and are discussed for some particular forms of the arbitrary functions appearing in them.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Kling

2014-07-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose F. Monserrat

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

Perfect Power Prototype for Illinois Institute of Technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shahidehpour, Mohammad [Illinois Inst. Of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

2014-09-30

Starting in October 2008, Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT), in collaboration with over 20 participating members, led an extensive effort to develop, demonstrate, promote, and commercialize a microgrid system and offer supporting technologies that will achieve Perfect Power at the main campus of IIT. A Perfect Power system, as defined by the Galvin Electricity Initiative (GEI), is a system that cannot fail to meet the electric needs of the individual end-user. The Principle Investigator of this Perfect Power project was Dr. Mohammad Shahidehpour, Director of the Robert W. Galvin Center for Electricity Innovation at IIT. There were six overall objectives of the Perfect Power project: (1) Demonstrate the higher reliability introduced by the microgrid system at IIT; (2) Demonstrate the economics of microgrid operations; (3) Allow for a decrease of fifty percent (50%) of grid electricity load; (4) Create a permanent twenty percent (20%) decrease in peak load from 2007 level; (5) Defer planned substation through load reduction; (6) Offer a distribution system design that can be replicated in urban communities.

Quantum FRW cosmological solutions in the presence of Chaplygin gas and perfect fluid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pedram, P.; Jalalzadeh, S.

2008-01-01

We present a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker quantum cosmological model in the presence of Chaplygin gas and perfect fluid for early and late time epochs. In this work, we consider perfect fluid as an effective potential and apply Schutz's variational formalism to the Chaplygin gas which recovers the notion of time. These give rise to Schroedinger-Wheeler-DeWitt equation for the scale factor. We use the eigenfunctions in order to construct wave packets and study the time dependent behavior of the expectation value of the scale factor using the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics. We show that contrary to the classical case, the expectation value of the scale factor avoids singularity at quantum level. Moreover, this model predicts that the expansion of Universe is accelerating for the late times

Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

2015-12-01

Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

2018-05-01

Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright �

Temperature-based modeling of reference evapotranspiration using several artificial intelligence models: application of different modeling scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Maroufpoor, Eisa; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

2018-02-01

The establishment of an accurate computational model for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) process is highly essential for several agricultural and hydrological applications, especially for the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this research, six artificial intelligence (AI) models were investigated for modeling ET0 using a small number of climatic data generated from the minimum and maximum temperatures of the air and extraterrestrial radiation. The investigated models were multilayer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partitioning and subtractive clustering (ANFIS-GP and ANFIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP). The implemented monthly time scale data set was collected at the Antalya and Isparta stations which are located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation and its calibrated version (CHS) were used to perform a verification analysis of the established AI models. The accuracy of validation was focused on multiple quantitative metrics, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R 2), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS). The results of the conducted models were highly practical and reliable for the investigated case studies. At the Antalya station, the performance of the GEP and GRNN models was better than the other investigated models, while the performance of the RBNN and ANFIS-SC models was best compared to the other models at the Isparta station. Except for the MLP model, all the other investigated models presented a better performance accuracy compared to the HS and CHS empirical models when applied in a cross-station scenario. A cross-station scenario examination implies the

SMART-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Palmintier, Bryan: Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2017-01-26

This presentation provides a Smart-DS project overview and status update for the ARPA-e GRID DATA program meeting 2017, including distribution systems, models, and scenarios, as well as opportunities for GRID DATA collaborations.

Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

2012-01-01

the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

Frequency domain finite-element and spectral-element acoustic wave modeling using absorbing boundaries and perfectly matched layer

Science.gov (United States)

Rahimi Dalkhani, Amin; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Mahdavi Basir, Hadi

2018-04-01

Wave propagation modeling as a vital tool in seismology can be done via several different numerical methods among them are finite-difference, finite-element, and spectral-element methods (FDM, FEM and SEM). Some advanced applications in seismic exploration benefit the frequency domain modeling. Regarding flexibility in complex geological models and dealing with the free surface boundary condition, we studied the frequency domain acoustic wave equation using FEM and SEM. The results demonstrated that the frequency domain FEM and SEM have a good accuracy and numerical efficiency with the second order interpolation polynomials. Furthermore, we developed the second order Clayton and Engquist absorbing boundary condition (CE-ABC2) and compared it with the perfectly matched layer (PML) for the frequency domain FEM and SEM. In spite of PML method, CE-ABC2 does not add any additional computational cost to the modeling except assembling boundary matrices. As a result, considering CE-ABC2 is more efficient than PML for the frequency domain acoustic wave propagation modeling especially when computational cost is high and high-level absorbing performance is unnecessary.

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario fol......-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context....

Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn J. Draeger

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

Perfectly matched layers in a divergence preserving ADI scheme for electromagnetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraus, C.; Adelmann, A.; Arbenz, P.

2012-01-01

For numerical simulations of highly relativistic and transversely accelerated charged particles including radiation fast algorithms are needed. While the radiation in particle accelerators has wavelengths in the order of 100 μm the computational domain has dimensions roughly five orders of magnitude larger resulting in very large mesh sizes. The particles are confined to a small area of this domain only. To resolve the smallest scales close to the particles subgrids are envisioned. For reasons of stability the alternating direction implicit (ADI) scheme by Smithe et al. [D.N. Smithe, J.R. Cary, J.A. Carlsson, Divergence preservation in the ADI algorithms for electromagnetics, J. Comput. Phys. 228 (2009) 7289-7299] for Maxwell equations has been adopted. At the boundary of the domain absorbing boundary conditions have to be employed to prevent reflection of the radiation. In this paper we show how the divergence preserving ADI scheme has to be formulated in perfectly matched layers (PML) and compare the performance in several scenarios.

Lorentz invariant noncommutative algebra for cosmological models coupled to a perfect fluid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abreu, Everton M.C.; Marcial, Mateus V.; Mendes, Albert C.R.; Oliveira, Wilson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, MG (Brazil)

2013-07-01

Full text: In current theoretical physics there is a relevant number of theoretical investigations that lead to believe that at the first moments of our Universe, the geometry was not commutative and the dominating physics at that time was ruled by the laws of noncommutative (NC) geometry. Therefore, the idea is that the physics of the early moments can be constructed based on these concepts. The first published work using the idea of a NC spacetime were carried out by Snyder who believed that NC principles could make the quantum field theory infinities disappear. However, it did not occur and Snyder's ideas were put to sleep for a long time. The main modern motivations that rekindle the investigation about NC field theories came from string theory and quantum gravity. In the context of quantum mechanics for example, R. Banerjee discussed how NC structures appear in planar quantum mechanics providing a useful way for obtaining them. The analysis was based on the NC algebra used in planar quantum mechanics that was originated from 't Hooft's analysis on dissipation and quantization. In this work we carry out a NC algebra analysis of the Friedmann-Robert-Walker model, coupled to a perfect fluid and in the presence of a cosmological constant. The classical field equations are modified, by the introduction of a shift operator, in order to introduce noncommutativity in these models. (author)

10 CFR 609.16 - Perfection of liens and preservation of collateral.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Perfection of liens and preservation of collateral. 609.16... THAT EMPLOY INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES § 609.16 Perfection of liens and preservation of collateral. (a... to perfect and maintain liens, as applicable, on assets which are pledged as collateral for the...

A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Acosta, L.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reidsma, P.; Metzger, M.J.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Leemans, R.

2013-01-01

Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit

Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

1999-01-01

In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Daniel, W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2013-09-01

This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

2008-01-01

This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream market) and which explicitly includes infrastructure capacities. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition in both markets, perfect competition in both markets, and perfect competition in the downstream with Cournot competition in the upstream market (EU liberalization). We find that Cournot competition in both markets is the most accurate representation of today's European natural gas market, where suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up at the expense of the final customer (double marginalization). Our results yield a diversified supply portfolio with newly emerging (LNG) exporters gaining market shares. Enforcing competition in the European downstream market would lead to lower prices and higher quantities by avoiding the welfare-reducing effects of double marginalization. Binding infrastructure capacity restrictions strongly influence the results, and we identify bottlenecks mainly for intra-European trade relations whereas transport capacity in the upstream market is globally sufficient in the Cournot scenario. (author)

Beyond the perfect fluid hypothesis for the dark energy equation of state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardone, V.F.; Troisi, A.; Tortora, C.; Capozziello, S.

2006-01-01

Abandoning the perfect fluid hypothesis, we investigate here the possibility that the dark energy equation of state (EoS) w is a nonlinear function of the energy density ρ. To this aim, we consider four different EoS describing classical fluids near thermodynamical critical points and discuss the main features of cosmological models made out of dust matter and a dark energy term with the given EoS. Each model is tested against the data on the dimensionless coordinate distance to Type Ia Supernovae and radio galaxies, the shift and the acoustic peak parameters and the positions of the first three peaks in the anisotropy spectrum of the comic microwave background radiation. We propose a possible interpretation of each model in the framework of scalar field quintessence determining the shape of the self-interaction potential V(φ) that gives rise to each one of the considered thermodynamical EoS. As a general result, we demonstrate that replacing the perfect fluid EoS with more general expressions gives both the possibility of successfully solving the problem of cosmic acceleration escaping the resort to phantom models

Scheme for achieving coherent perfect absorption by anisotropic metamaterials

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Xiujuan

2017-02-22

We propose a unified scheme to achieve coherent perfect absorption of electromagnetic waves by anisotropic metamaterials. The scheme describes the condition on perfect absorption and offers an inverse design route based on effective medium theory in conjunction with retrieval method to determine practical metamaterial absorbers. The scheme is scalable to frequencies and applicable to various incident angles. Numerical simulations show that perfect absorption is achieved in the designed absorbers over a wide range of incident angles, verifying the scheme. By integrating these absorbers, we further propose an absorber to absorb energy from two coherent point sources.

Hydrological simulations driven by RCM climate scenarios at basin scale in the Po River, Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Vezzoli

2014-09-01

Full Text Available River discharges are the main expression of the hydrological cycle and are the results of climate natural variability. The signal of climate changes occurrence raises the question of how it will impact on river flows and on their extreme manifestations: floods and droughts. This question can be addressed through numerical simulations spanning from the past (1971 to future (2100 under different climate change scenarios. This work addresses the capability of a modelling chain to reproduce the observed discharge of the Po River over the period 1971–2000. The modelling chain includes climate and hydrological/hydraulic models and its performance is evaluated through indices based on the flow duration curve. The climate datasets used for the 1971–2000 period are (a a high resolution observed climate dataset, and COSMO-CLM regional climate model outputs with (b perfect boundary condition, ERA40 Reanalysis, and (c suboptimal boundary conditions provided by the global climate model CMCC–CM. The aim of the different simulations is to evaluate how the uncertainties introduced by the choice of the regional and/or global climate models propagate in the simulated discharges. This point is relevant to interpret the results of the simulated discharges when scenarios for the future are considered. The hydrological/hydraulic components are simulated through a physically-based distributed model (TOPKAPI and a water balance model at the basin scale (RIBASIM. The aim of these first simulations is to quantify the uncertainties introduced by each component of the modelling chain and their propagation. Estimation of the overall uncertainty is relevant to correctly understand the future river flow regimes. The results show how bias correction algorithms can help in reducing the overall uncertainty associated to the different stages of the modelling chain.

The perfect man in the literary opus of John Climacus and Ibn Arabi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rašić Dunja

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In search of the perfect man of the Islamic and Christian mysticisms, this paper also discusses the nature of mystical knowledge, to whose domain the perfect man, as the highest model of human existence and spiritual life, indisputably belongs. This study belongs to the philosophical discipline of comparative philosophy. Hence, searching for the lost paradise of human existence, still remembering the taste of bliss of residence filled only with infinite happiness, this paper will consider the extent to which the methodology of Paul Masson-Oursel and Henry Corbin, as two well-known comparative philosophy research methods can try to measure their strength with cryptic teachings of mysticism.

Classical and quantum dynamics of a perfect fluid scalar-metric cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vakili, Babak

2010-01-01

We study the classical and quantum models of a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) cosmology, coupled to a perfect fluid, in the context of the scalar-metric gravity. Using the Schutz' representation for the perfect fluid, we show that, under a particular gauge choice, it may lead to the identification of a time parameter for the corresponding dynamical system. It is shown that the evolution of the universe based on the classical cosmology represents a late time power law expansion coming from a big-bang singularity in which the scale factor goes to zero while the scalar field blows up. Moreover, this formalism gives rise to a Schroedinger-Wheeler-DeWitt (SWD) equation for the quantum-mechanical description of the model under consideration, the eigenfunctions of which can be used to construct the wave function of the universe. We use the resulting wave function in order to investigate the possibility of the avoidance of classical singularities due to quantum effects by means of the many-worlds and ontological interpretation of quantum cosmology.

Indefinite and Continuative Interpretations of the English Present Perfect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarina Dea Žetko

2005-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of our paper is to demonstrate that the English present perfect is not by inherent meaning either indefinite or continuative. Notions like indefinite and continuative are contextdependent interpretations of whole constructions and their broader context. However, continuative interpretation can also be triggered by certain adverbials, negative constructions and verbs in the progressive form. But, even these factors do not always guarantee continuative interpretations. Construction, continuative meaning can be cancelled by the context in a broader sense, this fact being a proof that this meaning is merely an implicature. We will demonstrate how different factors interact and trigger either indefinite or continuative interpretations which are not inherent in the present perfect itself. Our paper will attempt to provide sufficient evidence that there is no indefinite/continuative distinction in the English present perfect, the inherent meaning or function of the present perfect is merely to locate the situation somewhere within a period that starts before the time of utterance and leads up to it.

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

2013-12-01

The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

2009-12-15

There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Perfect and Periphrastic Passive Constructions in Danish

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerre, Tavs; Bjerre, Anne

2007-01-01

This paper gives an account of the event and argument structure of past participles and the linking between argument structure and valence structure. It further accounts for how participles form perfect and passiv constructions with auxiliaries. We assume that the same participle form is used...... in both types of construction. Our claim is that the valence structure of a past participle is predictable from its semantic type, and that the valence structure predicts with which auciliary a past participle combines in perfect constructions and whether the past participle may occur in passiv...

Perfect 800 Advanced Strategies for Top Students

CERN Document Server

Celenti, Dan

2010-01-01

Getting into the nation's most competitive universities requires more than a good SAT score, it requires a perfect score. Perfect 800: SAT Math gives advanced students the tools needed to master the SAT math test. Covering areas including arithmetic concepts; algebra; geometry; and additional topics such as probability and weighted average, the book offers exposure to a wide range of degrees of difficulty in a holistic approach that allows students to experience the "real thing," including the impact of time constraints on their performance. By emphasizing critical thinking and analytic skills

Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

2012-09-01

End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

2016-01-01

We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Approximating perfection a mathematician's journey into the world of mechanics

CERN Document Server

Lebedev, Leonid P

2004-01-01

This is a book for those who enjoy thinking about how and why Nature can be described using mathematical tools. Approximating Perfection considers the background behind mechanics as well as the mathematical ideas that play key roles in mechanical applications. Concentrating on the models of applied mechanics, the book engages the reader in the types of nuts-and-bolts considerations that are normally avoided in formal engineering courses: how and why models remain imperfect, and the factors that motivated their development. The opening chapter reviews and reconsiders the basics of c

Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

Application of the perfectly matched layer in 3-D marine controlled-source electromagnetic modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Gang; Li, Yuguo; Han, Bo; Liu, Zhan

2018-01-01

In this study, the complex frequency-shifted perfectly matched layer (CFS-PML) in stretching Cartesian coordinates is successfully applied to 3-D frequency-domain marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) field modelling. The Dirichlet boundary, which is usually used within the traditional framework of EM modelling algorithms, assumes that the electric or magnetic field values are zero at the boundaries. This requires the boundaries to be sufficiently far away from the area of interest. To mitigate the boundary artefacts, a large modelling area may be necessary even though cell sizes are allowed to grow toward the boundaries due to the diffusion of the electromagnetic wave propagation. Compared with the conventional Dirichlet boundary, the PML boundary is preferred as the modelling area of interest could be restricted to the target region and only a few absorbing layers surrounding can effectively depress the artificial boundary effect without losing the numerical accuracy. Furthermore, for joint inversion of seismic and marine CSEM data, if we use the PML for CSEM field simulation instead of the conventional Dirichlet, the modelling area for these two different geophysical data collected from the same survey area could be the same, which is convenient for joint inversion grid matching. We apply the CFS-PML boundary to 3-D marine CSEM modelling by using the staggered finite-difference discretization. Numerical test indicates that the modelling algorithm using the CFS-PML also shows good accuracy compared to the Dirichlet. Furthermore, the modelling algorithm using the CFS-PML shows advantages in computational time and memory saving than that using the Dirichlet boundary. For the 3-D example in this study, the memory saving using the PML is nearly 42 per cent and the time saving is around 48 per cent compared to using the Dirichlet.

A Nuclide Release Model for a Deep Well Scenario near a Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Choi, Jong Won

2010-01-01

Recently several template programs ready for the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste repository (HLW) and a low- and intermediate level radioactive waste repository (LILW) systems, that are conceptually modeled, have been developed by utilizing GoldSim and AMBER at KAERI. During the last few years, such template programs have been utilized for the evaluation of nuclide transports in the nearand far-field of a repository as well as transport through the biosphere under various normal and disruptive release scenarios with assumed data. The GoldSim program, another template program by which influence due to a well located very near to the repository has been modeled and evaluated for an assumed case in order to simulate the worst exposure scenario. This seems very useful to evaluate an accidental event a long time after closure of the repository has been developed and illustrated

Realistic modelling of external flooding scenarios - A multi-disciplinary approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brinkman, J.L.

2014-01-01

against flooding and timing of the events into account as basis for the development and screening of flooding scenarios. Realistic modelling of external flooding scenarios in a PSA requires a multi-disciplinary approach. Next to being thoroughly familiar with the design features of the plant against flooding, like its critical elevations for safety (related) equipment and the strength of buildings, additional knowledge is necessary on design of flood protection measures as dikes and dunes, their failure behaviour and modelling. The approach does not change the basic flooding scenarios - the event tree structure - itself, but impacts the initiating event of the specific flooding scenarios. (authors)

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

Science.gov (United States)

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Perfect 2-colorings of the generalized Petersen graph

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

There are no perfect 2-colorings of GP(n, 2) with the matrix A3. Proof. Suppose, contrary to our claim, there is a perfect 2-coloring of GP(n, 2) with the matrix A3. By Lemma 3.4, there are 2 vertices ai and bi, for some 0 ≤ i ≤ n−1, such that they are the same color. By symmetry, without loss of generality, we can assume T (a0) ...

LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Mohamed Wahid

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Posch

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

Thermodynamical stability for a perfect fluid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Xiongjun; Jing, Jiliang [Hunan Normal University, Department of Physics, Key Laboratory of Low Dimensional Quantum Structures and Quantum Control of Ministry of Education, and Synergetic Innovation Center for Quantum Effects and Applications, Changsha, Hunan (China); He, Xiaokai [Hunan Normal University, Department of Physics, Key Laboratory of Low Dimensional Quantum Structures and Quantum Control of Ministry of Education, and Synergetic Innovation Center for Quantum Effects and Applications, Changsha, Hunan (China); Hunan First Normal University, School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Changsha (China)

2017-12-15

According to the maximum entropy principle, it has been proved that the gravitational field equations could be derived by the extrema of the total entropy for a perfect fluid, which implies that thermodynamic relations contain information as regards gravity. In this manuscript, we obtain a criterion for the thermodynamical stability of an adiabatic, self-gravitating perfect fluid system by the second variation of the total entropy. We show, for Einstein's gravity with spherical symmetry spacetime, that the criterion is consistent with that for the dynamical stability derived by Chandrasekhar and Wald. We also find that the criterion could be applied to cases without spherical symmetry, or under general perturbations. The result further establishes the connection between thermodynamics and gravity. (orig.)

Exact EGB models for spherical static perfect fluids

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansraj, Sudan; Chilambwe, Brian; Maharaj, Sunil D. [University of KwaZulu-Natal, Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Private Bag 54001, Durban (South Africa)

2015-06-15

We obtain a new exact solution to the field equations for a 5-dimensional spherically symmetric static distribution in the Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet modified theory of gravity. By using a transformation, the study is reduced to the analysis of a single second order nonlinear differential equation. In general the condition of pressure isotropy produces a first order differential equation which is an Abel equation of the second kind. An exact solution is found. The solution is examined for physical admissibility. In particular a set of constants is found which ensures that a pressure-free hypersurface exists which defines the boundary of the distribution. Additionally the isotropic pressure and the energy density are shown to be positive within the radius of the sphere. The adiabatic sound-speed criterion is also satisfied within the fluid ensuring a subluminal sound speed. Furthermore, the weak, strong and dominant conditions hold throughout the distribution. On setting the Gauss-Bonnet coupling to zero, an exact solution for 5-dimensional perfect fluids in the standard Einstein theory is obtained. Plots of the dynamical quantities for the Gauss-Bonnet and the Einstein case reveal that the pressure is unaffected, while the energy density increases under the influence of the Gauss-Bonnet term. (orig.)

Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gavin Hawkley

2010-07-01

This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

Perfect 3-colorings of the cubic graphs of order 10

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Alaeiyan

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Perfect coloring is a generalization of the notion of completely regular codes, given by Delsarte. A perfect m-coloring of a graph G with m colors is a partition of the vertex set of G into m parts A_1, A_2, ..., A_m such that, for all $ i,j \\in \\lbrace 1, ... , m \\rbrace $, every vertex of A_i is adjacent to the same number of vertices, namely, a_{ij} vertices, of A_j. The matrix $A=(a_{ij}_{i,j\\in \\lbrace 1,... ,m\\rbrace }$, is called the parameter matrix. We study the perfect 3-colorings (also known as the equitable partitions into three parts of the cubic graphs of order 10. In particular, we classify all the realizable parameter matrices of perfect 3-colorings for the cubic graphs of order 10.

Electromagnetic Detection of a Perfect Carpet Cloak

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Xihang; Gao, Fei; Lin, Xiao; Zhang, Baile

2015-05-01

It has been shown that a spherical invisibility cloak originally proposed by Pendry et al. can be electromagnetically detected by shooting a charged particle through it, whose underlying mechanism stems from the asymmetry of transformation optics applied to motions of photons and charges [PRL 103, 243901 (2009)]. However, the conceptual three-dimensional invisibility cloak that exactly follows specifications of transformation optics is formidably difficult to implement, while the simplified cylindrical cloak that has been experimentally realized is inherently visible. On the other hand, the recent carpet cloak model has acquired remarkable experimental development, including a recently demonstrated full-parameter carpet cloak without any approximation in the required constitutive parameters. In this paper, we numerically investigate the electromagnetic radiation from a charged particle passing through a perfect carpet cloak and propose an experimentally verifiable model to demonstrate symmetry breaking of transformation optics.

CONSTRUCTIVE MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF DATA STRUCTURES IN RAM. PART II. CONSTRUCTORS OF SCENARIOS AND ADAPTATION PROCESSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. I. Shynkarenko

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose.The second part of the paper completes presentation of constructive and the productive structures (CPS, modeling adaptation of data structures in memory (RAM. The purpose of the second part in the research is to develop a model of process of adaptation data in a RAM functioning in different hardware and software environments and scenarios of data processing. Methodology. The methodology of mathematical and algorithmic constructionism was applied. In this part of the paper, changes were developed the constructors of scenarios and adaptation processes based on a generalized CPS through its transformational conversions. Constructors are interpreted, specialized CPS. Were highlighted the terminal alphabets of the constructor scenarios in the form of data processing algorithms and the constructor of adaptation – in the form of algorithmic components of the adaptation process. The methodology involves the development of substitution rules that determine the output process of the relevant structures. Findings. In the second part of the paper, system is represented by CPS modeling adaptation data placement in the RAM, namely, constructors of scenarios and of adaptation processes. The result of the implementation of constructor of scenarios is a set of data processing operations in the form of text in the language of programming C#, constructor of the adaptation processes – a process of adaptation, and the result the process of adaptation – the adapted binary code of processing data structures. Originality. For the first time proposed the constructive model of data processing – the scenario that takes into account the order and number of calls to the various elements of data structures and adaptation of data structures to the different hardware and software environments. At the same the placement of data in RAM and processing algorithms are adapted. Constructionism application in modeling allows to link data models and algorithms for

Computing a quasi-perfect equilibrium of a two-player game

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miltersen, Peter Bro; Sørensen, Troels Bjerre

2010-01-01

Refining an algorithm due to Koller, Megiddo and von Stengel, we show how to apply Lemke's algorithm for solving linear complementarity programs to compute a quasi-perfect equilibrium in behavior strategies of a given two-player extensive-form game of perfect recall. A quasi-perfect equilibrium...... of a zero-sum game, we devise variants of the algorithm that rely on linear programming rather than linear complementarity programming and use the simplex algorithm or other algorithms for linear programming rather than Lemke's algorithm. We argue that these latter algorithms are relevant for recent...

A Hypergraph Dictatorship Test with Perfect Completeness

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Victor

A hypergraph dictatorship test is first introduced by Samorodnitsky and Trevisan and serves as a key component in their unique games based {operatorname{PCP}} construction. Such a test has oracle access to a collection of functions and determines whether all the functions are the same dictatorship, or all their low degree influences are o(1). Their test makes q ≥ 3 queries, has amortized query complexity 1+Oleft(log q/qright), but has an inherent loss of perfect completeness. In this paper we give an (adaptive) hypergraph dictatorship test that achieves both perfect completeness and amortized query complexity 1+Oleft(log q/qright).

Optimization of Perfect Absorbers with Multilayer Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Li Voti, Roberto

2018-02-01

We study wide-angle and broadband perfect absorbers with compact multilayer structures made of a sequence of ITO and TiN layers deposited onto a silver thick layer. An optimization procedure is introduced for searching the optimal thicknesses of the layers so as to design a perfect broadband absorber from 400 nm to 750 nm, for a wide range of angles of incidence from 0{°} to 50{°}, for both polarizations and with a low emissivity in the mid-infrared. We eventually compare the performances of several optimal structures that can be very promising for solar thermal energy harvesting and collectors.

Electromagnetic Detection of a Perfect Invisibility Cloak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Baile; Wu, Bae-Ian

2009-01-01

A perfect invisibility cloak is commonly believed to be undetectable from electromagnetic (EM) detection because it is equivalent to a curved but empty EM space created from coordinate transformation. Based on the intrinsic asymmetry of coordinate transformation applied to motions of photons and charges, we propose a method to detect this curved EM space by shooting a fast-moving charged particle through it. A broadband radiation generated in this process makes a cloak visible. Our method is the only known EM mechanism so far to detect an ideal perfect cloak (curved EM space) within its working band.

Apnea of prematurity--perfect storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Fiore, Juliann M; Martin, Richard J; Gauda, Estelle B

2013-11-01

With increased survival of preterm infants as young as 23 weeks gestation, maintaining adequate respiration and corresponding oxygenation represents a clinical challenge in this unique patient cohort. Respiratory instability characterized by apnea and periodic breathing occurs in premature infants because of immature development of the respiratory network. While short respiratory pauses and apnea may be of minimal consequence if oxygenation is maintained, they can be problematic if accompanied by chronic intermittent hypoxemia. Underdevelopment of the lung and the resultant lung injury that occurs in this population concurrent with respiratory instability creates the perfect storm leading to frequent episodes of profound and recurrent hypoxemia. Chronic intermittent hypoxemia contributes to the immediate and long term co-morbidities that occur in this population. In this review we discuss the pathophysiology leading to the perfect storm, diagnostic assessment of breathing instability in this unique population and therapeutic interventions that aim to stabilize breathing without contributing to tissue injury. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok

2014-01-01

within a time frame of two hours and approx. 7% of the electricity demand can be moved within a time frame of 24 hours. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Evaluation of human thorax FE model in various impact scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jansová M.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The study focused on the validation of the 50th percentile male model — a detailed FE model of the thoracic segment of the human body developed within project Development of a Finite Element Model of the Human Thorax and Upper Extremities (THOMO co-funded by the European Commission (7th Framework Programme. The model response was tested in three impact scenarios: frontal, lateral and oblique. The resulting impactor contact force vs. time and chest deflection vs. time responses were compared with experimental results. The strain profile of the 5th rib was checked with lateral and oblique strain profiles from post-mortem human subject (PMHS experiments. The influence of heart and lungs on the mechanical response of the model was assessed and the material data configuration, giving the most biofidelic thorax behaviour, was identified.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

A perfectly conducting surface in electrodynamics with Lorentz symmetry breaking

Science.gov (United States)

Borges, L. H. C.; Barone, F. A.

2017-10-01

In this paper we consider a model which exhibits explicit Lorentz symmetry breaking due to the presence of a single background vector v^{μ } coupled to the gauge field. We investigate such a theory in the vicinity of a perfectly conducting plate for different configurations of v^{μ }. First we consider no restrictions on the components of the background vector and we treat it perturbatively up to second order. Next, we treat v^{μ } exactly for two special cases: the first one is when it has only components parallel to the plate, and the second one when it has a single component perpendicular to the plate. For all these configurations, the propagator for the gauge field and the interaction force between the plate and a point-like electric charge are computed. Surprisingly, it is shown that the image method is valid in our model and we argue that it is a non-trivial result. We show there arises a torque on the mirror with respect to its positioning in the background field when it interacts with a point-like charge. It is a new effect with no counterpart in theories with Lorentz symmetry in the presence of a perfect mirror.

A perfectly conducting surface in electrodynamics with Lorentz symmetry breaking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Borges, L.H.C. [UNESP, Campus de Guaratingueta, DFQ, Guaratingueta, SP (Brazil); Barone, F.A. [IFQ, Universidade Federal de Itajuba, Itajuba, MG (Brazil)

2017-10-15

In this paper we consider a model which exhibits explicit Lorentz symmetry breaking due to the presence of a single background vector v{sup μ} coupled to the gauge field. We investigate such a theory in the vicinity of a perfectly conducting plate for different configurations of v{sup μ}. First we consider no restrictions on the components of the background vector and we treat it perturbatively up to second order. Next, we treat v{sup μ} exactly for two special cases: the first one is when it has only components parallel to the plate, and the second one when it has a single component perpendicular to the plate. For all these configurations, the propagator for the gauge field and the interaction force between the plate and a point-like electric charge are computed. Surprisingly, it is shown that the image method is valid in our model and we argue that it is a non-trivial result. We show there arises a torque on the mirror with respect to its positioning in the background field when it interacts with a point-like charge. It is a new effect with no counterpart in theories with Lorentz symmetry in the presence of a perfect mirror. (orig.)

Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

2007-07-30

This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

2010-05-01

To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC

Holographic perfect fluidity, Cotton energy-momentum duality and transport properties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mukhopadhyay, Ayan [Centre de Physique Théorique, Ecole Polytechnique, CNRS UMR 7644,Route de Saclay, 91128 Palaiseau Cedex (France); Institut de Physique Théorique, CEA, CNRS URA 2306,91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Petkou, Anastasios C. [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Petropoulos, P. Marios; Pozzoli, Valentina [Centre de Physique Théorique, Ecole Polytechnique, CNRS UMR 7644,Route de Saclay, 91128 Palaiseau Cedex (France); Siampos, Konstadinos [Service de Mécanique et Gravitation, Université de Mons, UMONS,20 Place du Parc, 7000 Mons (Belgium)

2014-04-23

We investigate background metrics for 2+1-dimensional holographic theories where the equilibrium solution behaves as a perfect fluid, and admits thus a thermodynamic description. We introduce stationary perfect-Cotton geometries, where the Cotton-York tensor takes the form of the energy-momentum tensor of a perfect fluid, i.e. they are of Petrov type D{sub t}. Fluids in equilibrium in such boundary geometries have non-trivial vorticity. The corresponding bulk can be exactly reconstructed to obtain 3+1-dimensional stationary black-hole solutions with no naked singularities for appropriate values of the black-hole mass. It follows that an infinite number of transport coefficients vanish for holographic fluids. Our results imply an intimate relationship between black-hole uniqueness and holographic perfect equilibrium. They also point towards a Cotton/energy-momentum tensor duality constraining the fluid vorticity, as an intriguing boundary manifestation of the bulk mass/nut duality.

Holographic perfect fluidity, Cotton energy-momentum duality and transport properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukhopadhyay, Ayan; Petkou, Anastasios C.; Petropoulos, P. Marios; Pozzoli, Valentina; Siampos, Konstadinos

2014-01-01

We investigate background metrics for 2+1-dimensional holographic theories where the equilibrium solution behaves as a perfect fluid, and admits thus a thermodynamic description. We introduce stationary perfect-Cotton geometries, where the Cotton-York tensor takes the form of the energy-momentum tensor of a perfect fluid, i.e. they are of Petrov type D t . Fluids in equilibrium in such boundary geometries have non-trivial vorticity. The corresponding bulk can be exactly reconstructed to obtain 3+1-dimensional stationary black-hole solutions with no naked singularities for appropriate values of the black-hole mass. It follows that an infinite number of transport coefficients vanish for holographic fluids. Our results imply an intimate relationship between black-hole uniqueness and holographic perfect equilibrium. They also point towards a Cotton/energy-momentum tensor duality constraining the fluid vorticity, as an intriguing boundary manifestation of the bulk mass/nut duality

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

1994-01-01

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Gago-Silva

2017-04-01

Full Text Available We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: “business as usual”, “liberalisation” and a “lowered agriculture production”. The “business-as-usual” scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12.3% in 2009 decreasing by 3.3% in 2050. Losses expected under a “business-as-usual” scenario in agriculture, are mostly due to the conversion to shrubland and forest. Further losses in extensive agriculture are expected under the “liberalisation” scenario, decreasing by 10.3 % in 2050. Along with a marked increase in the closed and open forest area, increasing from 27.1% in 2009 to 42.3% by 2050. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the “lowered agricultural production” scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.

On the spherical symmetry of static perfect fluids in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beig, R.; Simon, W.

1990-01-01

We present a theorem which establishes uniqueness, in particular spherical symmetry, of a wide class of general relativistic, static perfect-fluid models provided there exists a spherically symmetric model with the same equation of state and surface potential. The method of proof, which is inspired by recent work of Masood-ul-Alam, is illustrated by demonstrating uniqueness of a class of solutions due to Buchdahl which correspond to an extreme case of the inequality on the equation of state required by our theorem. 16 refs. (Authors)

Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rossol, Michael N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vergara, Claudio [MIT; Domingo, Carlos Mateo [IIT Comillas; Postigo, Fernando [IIT Comillas; de Cuadra, Fernando [IIT Comillas; Gomez, Tomas [IIT Comillas; Duenas, Pablo [MIT; Luke, Max [MIT; Li, Vivian [MIT; Vinoth, Mohan [GE Grid Solutions; Kadankodu, Sree [GE Grid Solutions

2017-08-09

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present the goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.

An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Babak Farjad

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

Black hole formation in perfect fluid collapse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goswami, Rituparno; Joshi, Pankaj S

2004-01-01

We construct here a special class of perfect fluid collapse models which generalizes the homogeneous dust collapse solution in order to include nonzero pressures and inhomogeneities into evolution. It is shown that a black hole is necessarily generated as the end product of continued gravitational collapse, rather than a naked singularity. We examine the nature of the central singularity forming as a result of endless collapse and it is shown that no nonspacelike trajectories can escape from the central singularity. Our results provide some insights into how the dynamical collapse works and into the possible formulations of the cosmic censorship hypothesis, which is as yet a major unsolved problem in black hole physics

Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, Rainer

2013-01-01

The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO 2 , resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [de

Construction of Subgame-Perfect Mixed Strategy Equilibria in Repeated Games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berg, Kimmo; Schoenmakers, Gijsbertus

2017-01-01

This paper examines how to construct subgame-perfect mixed-strategy equilibria in discounted repeated games with perfect monitoring.We introduce a relatively simple class of strategy profiles that are easy to compute and may give rise to a large set of equilibrium payoffs. These sets are called

The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

2009-01-01

In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

Binary Mixture of Perfect Fluid and Dark Energy in Modified Theory of Gravity

Science.gov (United States)

Shaikh, A. Y.

2016-07-01

A self consistent system of Plane Symmetric gravitational field and a binary mixture of perfect fluid and dark energy in a modified theory of gravity are considered. The gravitational field plays crucial role in the formation of soliton-like solutions, i.e., solutions with limited total energy, spin, and charge. The perfect fluid is taken to be the one obeying the usual equation of state, i.e., p = γρ with γ∈ [0, 1] whereas, the dark energy is considered to be either the quintessence like equation of state or Chaplygin gas. The exact solutions to the corresponding field equations are obtained for power-law and exponential volumetric expansion. The geometrical and physical parameters for both the models are studied.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

A systematic methodology to extend the applicability of a bioconversion model for the simulation of various co-digestion scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kovalovszki, Adam; Alvarado-Morales, Merlin; Fotidis, Ioannis

2017-01-01

Detailed simulation of anaerobic digestion (AD) requires complex mathematical models and the optimization of numerous model parameters. By performing a systematic methodology and identifying parameters with the highest impact on process variables in a well-established AD model, its applicability...... was extended to various co-digestion scenarios. More specifically, the application of the step-by-step methodology led to the estimation of a general and reduced set of parameters, for the simulation of scenarios where either manure or wastewater were co-digested with different organic substrates. Validation...... experimental data quite well, indicating that it offers a reliable reference point for future simulations of anaerobic co-digestion scenarios....

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

2010-01-01

for in the life-cycle impact assessment calculation, the small gas generation in low-organic waste landfills reduced the actual potential for energy generation and therefore the environmental savings obtained were reduced proportionally. Groundwater pollution from input of leachate was also evaluated and the WHO......The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, G.; Beresford, N.A.; Alvarez-Farizo, B.; Oughton, D.; Kis, Z.; Eged, K.; Thorring, H.; Hunt, J.; Wright, S.; Barnett, C.L.; Gil, J.M.; Howard, B.J.; Crout, N.M.J.

2005-01-01

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7 x 10 14 , 1.2 x 10 13 , 2.8 x 10 10 and 5.3 x 10 9 Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137 Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately pound 160 million. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

Science.gov (United States)

Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

2008-01-01

With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Zeroth Poisson Homology, Foliated Cohomology and Perfect Poisson Manifolds

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Torres, David; Miranda, Eva

2018-01-01

We prove that, for compact regular Poisson manifolds, the zeroth homology group is isomorphic to the top foliated cohomology group, and we give some applications. In particular, we show that, for regular unimodular Poisson manifolds, top Poisson and foliated cohomology groups are isomorphic. Inspired by the symplectic setting, we define what a perfect Poisson manifold is. We use these Poisson homology computations to provide families of perfect Poisson manifolds.

Integration of software for scenario exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-03-01

The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

Perfect quantum multiple-unicast network coding protocol

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dan-Dan; Gao, Fei; Qin, Su-Juan; Wen, Qiao-Yan

2018-01-01

In order to realize long-distance and large-scale quantum communication, it is natural to utilize quantum repeater. For a general quantum multiple-unicast network, it is still puzzling how to complete communication tasks perfectly with less resources such as registers. In this paper, we solve this problem. By applying quantum repeaters to multiple-unicast communication problem, we give encoding-decoding schemes for source nodes, internal ones and target ones, respectively. Source-target nodes share EPR pairs by using our encoding-decoding schemes over quantum multiple-unicast network. Furthermore, quantum communication can be accomplished perfectly via teleportation. Compared with existed schemes, our schemes can reduce resource consumption and realize long-distance transmission of quantum information.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Chen

Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Scarborough

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2009-03-01

A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

On some properties of Einstein equations with the perfect fluid energy-momentum tensor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biesiada, M.; Szydlowski, M.; Szczesny, J.

1989-01-01

We discuss the symmetries of Einstein equations with the perfect fluid energy momentum tensor. We show that the symmetries inherited from vacuum equations enforce the equation of state in the form p p 0 = γρ which is the most often used one and contains models with the cosmological constant. 9 refs. (author)

Perfect simulation and moment properties for the Matérn type III process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Huber, Mark L.; Wolpert, Robert L.

In a seminal work, Bertil Matérn introduced several types of processes for modeling repulsive point processes. In this paper an algorithm is presented for the perfect simulation of the Mat´ern III process within a bounded window in Rd fully accounting for edge effects. A simple upper bound...

An algebraic method to develop well-posed PML models Absorbing layers, perfectly matched layers, linearized Euler equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahmouni, Adib N.

2004-01-01

In 1994, Berenger [Journal of Computational Physics 114 (1994) 185] proposed a new layer method: perfectly matched layer, PML, for electromagnetism. This new method is based on the truncation of the computational domain by a layer which absorbs waves regardless of their frequency and angle of incidence. Unfortunately, the technique proposed by Berenger (loc. cit.) leads to a system which has lost the most important properties of the original one: strong hyperbolicity and symmetry. We present in this paper an algebraic technique leading to well-known PML model [IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation 44 (1996) 1630] for the linearized Euler equations, strongly well-posed, preserving the advantages of the initial method, and retaining symmetry. The technique proposed in this paper can be extended to various hyperbolic problems

Implementation of a perfect metamaterial absorber into multi-functional sensor applications

Science.gov (United States)

Akgol, O.; Karaaslan, M.; Unal, E.; Sabah, C.

2017-05-01

Perfect metamaterial absorber (MA)-based sensor applications are presented and investigated in the microwave frequency range. It is also experimentally analyzed and tested to verify the behavior of the MA. Suggested perfect MA-based sensor has a simple configuration which introduces flexibility to sense the dielectric properties of a material and the pressure of the medium. The investigated applications include pressure and density sensing. Besides, numerical simulations verify that the suggested sensor achieves good sensing capabilities for both applications. The proposed perfect MA-based sensor variations enable many potential applications in medical or food technologies.

Towards an equitable allocation of the cost of a global change adaptation plan at the river basin scale: going beyond the perfect cooperation assumption

Science.gov (United States)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel

2015-04-01

Adaptation to global change is a key issue in the planning of water resource systems in a changing world. Adaptation has to be efficient, but also equitable in the share of the costs of joint adaptation at the river basin scale. Least-cost hydro-economic optimization models have been helpful at defining efficient adaptation strategies. However, they often rely on the assumption of a "perfect cooperation" among the stakeholders, required for reaching the optimal solution. Nowadays, most adaptation decisions have to be agreed among the different actors in charge of their implementation, thus challenging the validity of a perfect command-and-control solution. As a first attempt to over-pass this limitation, our work presents a method to allocate the cost of an efficient adaptation programme of measures among the different stakeholders at the river basin scale. Principles of equity are used to define cost allocation scenarios from different perspectives, combining elements from cooperative game theory and axioms from social justice to bring some "food for thought" in the decision making process of adaptation. To illustrate the type of interactions between stakeholders in a river basin, the method has been applied in a French case study, the Orb river basin. Located on the northern rim of the Mediterranean Sea, this river basin is experiencing changes in demand patterns, and its water resources will be impacted by climate change, calling for the design of an adaptation plan. A least-cost river basin optimization model (LCRBOM) has been developed under GAMS to select the combination of demand- and supply-side adaptation measures that allows meeting quantitative water management targets at the river basin scale in a global change context. The optimal adaptation plan encompasses measures in both agricultural and urban sectors, up-stream and down-stream of the basin, disregarding the individual interests of the stakeholders. In order to ensure equity in the cost allocation

World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kisel, E.

2014-01-01

World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

2009-01-01

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

2018-06-01

River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, M.

2015-03-23

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chartier, I.

2006-01-01

Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

Science.gov (United States)

Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

2018-01-24

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Strategies of modeling the cognitive tasks of human operators for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheon, Se Woo; Sur, Sang Moon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jeong Wun

1993-01-01

This paper presents the development strategies of cognitive task network modeling for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms. Task network modeling is used to provide useful predictions of operator's performance times and error rates, based upon plant procedures and/or control room changes. Two accident scenarios, small-break loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), are selected for task simulation. To obtain the input data for the model, task elements are extracted by the task analysis of emergency operating procedures. The input data include task performance time, communication ink, panel location, component operating mode, and data for performance shaping factors (PSFs). Operator's verbs are categorized according to the elements of cognitive behavior. The simulation of the task network for the small-break LOCA scenario is presented in this paper. (Author)

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

2017-09-01

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

Integrated Nitrogen and Flow Modelling (INCA) in a Boreal River Basin Dominated by Forestry: Scenarios of Environmental Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rankinen, Katri; Lepistoe, Ahti; Granlund, Kirsti

2004-01-01

A new version (v1.7) of the Integrated Nitrogen in CAtchments model(INCA) was applied to the northern boreal Simojoki river basin (3160 km 2 ) in Finland. The INCA model is a semi-distributed, dynamic nitrogen (N) process model which simulates N transport and processes in catchments. The INCA model was applied to model flow and seasonal inorganic N dynamics of the river Simojoki basin over the period 1994-1996, and validated for two more years. Both calibration and validation of the model were successful. The model was able to simulate annual dynamics of inorganic N concentrations in the river. The effects of forest management and atmospheric deposition on inorganic N fluxes to the sea in 2010 were studied. Three scenarios were applied for forestry practices and two for deposition. The effects of forest cutting scenarios and atmospheric deposition scenarios on inorganic N flux to the sea were small. The combination of the maximum technically possible reduction of N deposition and a decrease of 100% in forest cutting and peat mining areas decreased NO 3 - -N flux by 6.0% and NH 4 + -N flux by 3.1%

Dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generation using a phenomenological modelling approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gernaey, Krist; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Rosen, Christian

2011-01-01

: the larger the simulated sewer network, the smoother the simulated diurnal flow rate and concentration variations. In the discussion, it is pointed out how the proposed phenomenological models can be expanded to other applications, for example to represent heavy metal or organic micro-pollutant loads......Activated Sludge Models are widely used for simulation-based evaluation of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance. However, due to the high workload and cost of a measuring campaign on a full-scale WWTP, many simulation studies suffer from lack of sufficiently long influent flow rate...... and concentration time series representing realistic wastewater influent dynamics. In this paper, a simple phenomenological modelling approach is proposed as an alternative to generate dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenarios. The presented set of models is constructed following the principles of parsimony...

Perfect transfer of arbitrary states in quantum spin networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christandl, Matthias; Kay, Alastair; Datta, Nilanjana; Dorlas, Tony C.; Ekert, Artur; Landahl, Andrew J.

2005-01-01

We propose a class of qubit networks that admit perfect state transfer of any two-dimensional quantum state in a fixed period of time. We further show that such networks can distribute arbitrary entangled states between two distant parties, and can, by using such systems in parallel, transmit the higher-dimensional systems states across the network. Unlike many other schemes for quantum computation and communication, these networks do not require qubit couplings to be switched on and off. When restricted to N-qubit spin networks of identical qubit couplings, we show that 2 log 3 N is the maximal perfect communication distance for hypercube geometries. Moreover, if one allows fixed but different couplings between the qubits then perfect state transfer can be achieved over arbitrarily long distances in a linear chain. This paper expands and extends the work done by Christandl et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 187902 (2004)

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

2010-01-01

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

2010-07-15

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

A model of negotiation scenarios based on time, relevance andcontrol used to define advantageous positions in a negotiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omar Guillermo Rojas Altamirano

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Models that apply to negotiation are based on different perspectives that range from the relationship between the actors, game theory or the steps in a procedure. This research proposes a model of negotiation scenarios that considers three factors (time, relevance and control, which are displayed as the most important in a negotiation. These factors interact with each other and create different scenarios for each of the actors involved in a negotiation. The proposed model not only facilitates the creation of a negotiation strategy but also an ideal choice of effective tactics.

Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundament...... parameters and other considerations that weigh heavily in a ship owner's or charterer's speed decision and in his routing decision, wherever relevant. Various examples are given so as to illustrate the properties of the optimal solution and the various trade-offs that are involved....

[INVITED] Coherent perfect absorption of electromagnetic wave in subwavelength structures

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Chao; Pu, Mingbo; Luo, Jun; Huang, Yijia; Li, Xiong; Ma, Xiaoliang; Luo, Xiangang

2018-05-01

Electromagnetic (EM) absorption is a common process by which the EM energy is transformed into other kinds of energy in the absorber, for example heat. Perfect absorption of EM with structures at subwavelength scale is important for many practical applications, such as stealth technology, thermal control and sensing. Coherent perfect absorption arises from the interplay of interference and absorption, which can be interpreted as a time-reversed process of lasing or EM emitting. It provides a promising way for complete absorption in both nanophotonics and electromagnetics. In this review, we discuss basic principles and properties of a coherent perfect absorber (CPA). Various subwavelength structures including thin films, metamaterials and waveguide-based structures to realize CPAs are compared. We also discuss the potential applications of CPAs.

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sébastien

2017-11-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2011-01-01

Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-03-24

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

Science.gov (United States)

Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

2016-05-01

Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P.

2011-02-01

SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case scenario in

Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P. (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

2011-02-15

SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case

Modelling of shear effects on thermal and particle transport in advanced Tokamak scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreau, D.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Baker, D.R.

1999-01-01

Evolution of thermal and particle internal transport barriers (ITBs) is studied by modelling the time-dependent energy and particle balance in DIII-D plasmas with reversed magnetic shear configurations and in JET discharges with monotonic or slightly reversed q-profiles and large ExB rotation shear. Simulations are performed with semi-empirical models for anomalous diffusion and particle pinch. Stabilizing effects of magnetic and ExB rotation shears are included in anomalous particle and heat diffusivity. Shear effects on particle and thermal transport are compared. Improved particle and energy confinement with the formation of an internal transport barrier (ITB) has been produced in DIII-D plasmas during current ramp-up accompanied with neutral beam injection (NBI). These plasmas are characterized by strong reversed magnetic shear and large ExB rotation shear which provide the reduction of anomalous fluxes. The formation of ITB's in the optimized shear (OS) JET scenario starts with strong NBI heating in a target plasma with a flat or slightly reversed q-profile pre-formed during current ramp-up with ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). Our paper presents the modelling of particle and thermal transport for these scenarios. (authors)

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

2018-03-30

This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool

Science.gov (United States)

Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D.; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale D.

2017-01-01

Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.

Perfect plasticity with damage and healing at small strains, its modeling, analysis, and computer implementation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Roubíček, Tomáš; Valdman, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 76, č. 1 (2016), s. 314-340 ISSN 0036-1399 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S; GA ČR GA14-15264S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 ; RVO:61388998 Keywords : Prandtl-Reuss perfect plasticity * bounded-deformation space * incomplete damage Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.670, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/MTR/valdman-0458557.pdf

A model for the analysis of a normal evolution scenarios for a deep geological granite repository for high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormenzana Lopez, J.L.; Cunado, M.A.; Lopez, M.T.

1996-01-01

The methodology usually used to evaluate the behaviour of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive wastes comprises three phases: Identification of factors (processes, characteristics and events) that can affect the repository. Generation of scenarios. In general, a normal evolution scenario (Reference Scenario) and various disruptive scenarios (earthquake, human intrusion, etc) are considered. Evaluation of the behaviour of the repository in each scenario. The normal evolution scenario taking into account all factors with a high probability of occurrence is the first to be analysed. The performance assessment of behaviour being carried out by ENRESA for the AGP Granite has led to the identification of 63 of these factors. To analyse repository behaviour in the normal evolution scenario, it is necessary to first of all create an integrated model of the global system. This is a qualitative model including the 63 factors identified. For a global view of a such a complex system, it is very useful to graphically display the relationship between factors in an Influence Diagram. This paper shows the Influence Diagram used in the analysis of the AGP Granite Reference Scenario. (Author)

USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Jakimi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

Nonminimal coupling of perfect fluids to curvature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertolami, Orfeu; Lobo, Francisco S. N.; Paramos, Jorge

2008-01-01

In this work, we consider different forms of relativistic perfect fluid Lagrangian densities that yield the same gravitational field equations in general relativity (GR). A particularly intriguing example is the case with couplings of the form [1+f 2 (R)]L m , where R is the scalar curvature, which induces an extra force that depends on the form of the Lagrangian density. It has been found that, considering the Lagrangian density L m =p, where p is the pressure, the extra-force vanishes. We argue that this is not the unique choice for the matter Lagrangian density, and that more natural forms for L m do not imply the vanishing of the extra force. Particular attention is paid to the impact on the classical equivalence between different Lagrangian descriptions of a perfect fluid.

Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenlei Bai

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

Hydrogen can be used as a perfect fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aydin, E.

2005-01-01

At present, hydrogen is one of the new and clean energy production sources. Hydrogen is the perfect partner for electricity, and together they create an integrated energy system based on distributed power generation and use. Hydrogen and electricity are interchangeable using a fuel cell (to convert hydrogen to electricity) or an electrolyzer (for converting electricity to hydrogen). A regenerative fuel cell works either way, converting hydrogen to electricity and vice versa. Hydrogen and electricity are both energy carriers because, unlike naturally occurring hydrocarbon fuels, they must both be produced using a primary energy source. In this study, it will be discussed whether hydrogen is perfect fuel or not

Validation of EOPs/FRGs Procedures Using LOHS Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bajs, T.; Konjarek, D.; Vukovic, J.

2012-01-01

Validation of EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) and FRGs (Function Restoration Guidelines) can be achieved either through plant full scope simulator or on desk top exercises. The desk top exercise is conducted when for the given scenario plant full scope simulator is not suitable. In either verification cases predefined scenario should be evaluated and possible branching foreseen. The scenario presented is LOHS, with bleed and feed procedure initiated. Best estimate light water reactor transient analysis code RELAP5/mod3.3 was used in calculation. Standardized detailed plant model was used. Operator actions were modelled from beginning of the scenario to its termination.(author).

Perfect-fluid models admitting a non-Abelian and maximal two-parameter group of isometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van den Bergh, N.

1988-01-01

A proof is given that, when a spacetime admits an invariant timelike congruence orthogonal to the orbits of a non-Abelian two-parameter group of isometries, the given congruence is vorticity-free provided the group is maximal. The result is used to derive a canonical coordinate form for perfect-fluid solutions satisfying the above condition. It is also shown that such a group of isometries cannot be orthogonally transitive and a brief discussion is given of the self-similar case. (author)

Metamaterial Perfect Absorber Analyzed by a Meta-Cavity Model Consisting of Multilayer Metasurfaces (Postprint)

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-05

cross-wire around the resonance wavelength. This is caused by the structural asymmetry depending on the propagation direction of incident light. For...1.82 μm. The significant change of φ r( )21 is caused by eff , which changes from i64 72 7 08. + . to . + . i4 19 1 28 in the same wavelength range...et al. Circular Dichroism Metamirrors with Near-Perfect Extinction . ACS Photonics 3, 2096–2101 (2016). 16. Li, W. et al. Circularly polarized light

Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

2016-12-01

Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

Science.gov (United States)

Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

2018-05-17

Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

10 CFR 611.108 - Perfection of liens and preservation of collateral.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Perfection of liens and preservation of collateral. 611... of collateral. (a) The Agreement and other documents related thereto shall provide that: (1) DOE and... necessary to perfect and maintain liens, as applicable, on assets which are pledged as collateral for the...

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Building the perfect PC

CERN Document Server

Thompson, Robert Bruce

2006-01-01

This popular Build-It-Yourself (BIY) PC book covers everything you want to know about building your own system: Planning and picking out the right components, step-by-step instructions for assembling your perfect PC, and an insightful discussion of why you'd want to do it in the first place. Most big brand computers from HP, Dell and others use lower-quality components so they can meet their aggressive pricing targets. But component manufacturers also make high-quality parts that you can either purchase directly, or obtain through distributors and resellers. Consumers and corporations

Le Perfectionnement en Phonetique (Perfecting Phonetics)

Science.gov (United States)

Laroche-Bouvy, Danielle

1975-01-01

This article describes the programs of the Institut d'Etudes Linguistiques et Phonetiques, located in Paris. The program focuses on perfecting the students' phonetic production of French. Both curriculum and teaching methods are described, as well as a course in phonetics for future teachers of French. (Text is in French.) (CLK)

Do Musicians with Perfect Pitch Have More Autism Traits than Musicians without Perfect Pitch? An Empirical Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dohn, Anders; Garza-Villarreal, Eduardo A.; Heaton, Pamela

2012-01-01

Perfect pitch, also known as absolute pitch (AP), refers to the rare ability to identify or produce a musical tone correctly without the benefit of an external reference. AP is often considered to reflect musical giftedness, but it has also been associated with certain disabilities due to increas...

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Looking beyond the perfect lens

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wee, W H; Pendry, J B

2010-01-01

The holy grail of imaging is the ability to see through anything. From the conservation of energy, we can easily see that to see through a lossy material would require lenses with gain. The aim of this paper therefore is to propose a simple scheme by which we can construct a general perfect lens, with gain-one that can restore both the phases and amplitudes of near and far fields.

Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

2009-01-01

This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

OpenAIRE

Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

2009-01-01

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Biology is rapidly becoming a data intensive, data-driven science. It is essential that data is represented and connected in ways that best represent its full conceptual content and allows both automated integration and data driven decision-making. Recent advancements in distributed multi-relational directed graphs, implemented in the form of the Semantic Web make it possible to deal with complicated heterogeneous data in new and interesting ways. Results This paper presents a new approach, scenario driven data modelling (SDDM), that integrates multi-relational directed graphs with data streams. SDDM can be applied to virtually any data integration challenge with widely divergent types of data and data streams. In this work, we explored integrating genetics data with reports from traditional media. SDDM was applied to the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase gene (NDM-1), an emerging global health threat. The SDDM process constructed a scenario, created a RDF multi-relational directed graph that linked diverse types of data to the Semantic Web, implemented RDF conversion tools (RDFizers) to bring content into the Sematic Web, identified data streams and analytical routines to analyse those streams, and identified user requirements and graph traversals to meet end-user requirements. Conclusions We provided an example where SDDM was applied to a complex data integration challenge. The process created a model of the emerging NDM-1 health threat, identified and filled gaps in that model, and constructed reliable software that monitored data streams based on the scenario derived multi-relational directed graph. The SDDM process significantly reduced the software requirements phase by letting the scenario and resulting multi-relational directed graph define what is possible and then set the scope of the user requirements. Approaches like SDDM will be critical to the future of data intensive, data-driven science because they automate the process of converting

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

A simple semi-empirical approach to model thickness of ash-deposits for different eruption scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. O. González-Mellado

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The impact of ash-fall on people, buildings, crops, water resources, and infrastructure depends on several factors such as the thickness of the deposits, grain size distribution and others. Preparedness against tephra falls over large regions around an active volcano requires an understanding of all processes controlling those factors, and a working model capable of predicting at least some of them. However, the complexity of tephra dispersion and sedimentation makes the search of an integral solution an almost unapproachable problem in the absence of highly efficient computing facilities due to the large number of equations and unknown parameters that control the process. An alternative attempt is made here to address the problem of modeling the thickness of ash deposits as a primary impact factor that can be easily communicated to the public and decision-makers. We develop a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of non-compacted deposits produced by an explosive eruption around a volcano in the distance range 4–150 km from the eruptive source.

The model was elaborated from the analysis of the geometric distribution of deposit thickness of 14 world-wide well-documented eruptions. The model was initially developed to depict deposits of potential eruptions of Popocatépetl and Colima volcanoes in México, but it can be applied to any volcano. It has been designed to provide planners and Civil Protection authorities of an accurate perception of the ash-fall deposit thickness that may be expected for different eruption scenarios. The model needs to be fed with a few easy-to-obtain parameters, namely, height of the eruptive column, duration of the explosive phase, and wind speed and direction, and its simplicity allows it to run in any platform, including a personal computers and even a notebook. The results may be represented as tables, two dimensional thickness-distance plots, or isopach maps using any available

The Present Perfect in World Englishes

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Xinyue; Collins, Peter

2012-01-01

This paper reports on a comprehensive corpus-based study of regional and stylistic variation in the distribution of the English present perfect. The data represents ten English varieties of both the Inner Circle and Outer Circle, covering four major text types: conversation, news reportage, academic and fictional writing. The results are discussed…

Dual band metamaterial perfect absorber based on Mie resonances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiaoming; Lan, Chuwen; Li, Bo; Zhou, Ji, E-mail: zhouji@tsinghua.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of New Ceramics and Fine Processing, School of Materials Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Bi, Ke [School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Zhao, Qian [State Key Lab of Tribology, Department of Precision Instruments and Mechanology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2016-08-08

We numerically and experimentally demonstrated a polarization insensitive dual-band metamaterial perfect absorber working in wide incident angles based on the two magnetic Mie resonances of a single dielectric “atom” with simple structure. Two absorption bands with simulated absorptivity of 99% and 96%, experimental absorptivity of 97% and 94% at 8.45 and 11.97 GHz were achieved due to the simultaneous magnetic and electric resonances in dielectric “atom” and copper plate. Mie resonances of dielectric “atom” provide a simple way to design metamaterial perfect absorbers with high symmetry.

SYSNET: A salt-site systems network model for scenario assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeves, M.; Banda, R.S.

1986-12-01

This document contains a description of the initial version of the systems model SYSNET. This model is being developed to analyze potentially disruptive scenarios of salt repository systems. Currently the model features a general three-dimensional network topology and simulates the processes of flow, heat transport in rock, heat transport in fluid, brine transport, salt creep dissolution, and precipitation. Of necessity, the SYSNET Code uses relatively simple semi-analytic algorithms so that it may be implemented statistically. Uncertain parameters may be sampled with a compatible preprocessor and then analyzed statistically with a compatible postprocessor. When used in this fashion, SYSNET may be caused to calculate distributions of various performance measures and sensitivities of performance measures to uncertain parameters. The ultimate objective of the SYSNET development is to prioritize data needs by computing sensitivities relative to a particular performance measure, namely the 10,000-year cumulative release, and to evaluate repository systems for compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Standard. 16 refs., 25 figs., 31 tabs

Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, B.

2015-03-23

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Іванович Пушкар

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

Tunable THz perfect absorber with two absorption peaks based on graphene microribbons

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, Mingyue; Xiao, Binggang; Xiao, Sanshui

2018-01-01

Perfect absorption is characterised by the complete suppression of incident and reflected electromagnetic wave, and complete dissipation of the incident energy. A tunable perfect terahertz (THz) absorber with two absorption peaks based on graphene is presented. The proposed structure consists of ...

AN FDTD ALGORITHM WITH PERFECTLY MATCHED LAYERS FOR CONDUCTIVE MEDIA. (R825225)

Science.gov (United States)

We extend Berenger's perfectly matched layers (PML) to conductive media. A finite-difference-time-domain (FDTD) algorithm with PML as an absorbing boundary condition is developed for solutions of Maxwell's equations in inhomogeneous, conductive media. For a perfectly matched laye...

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

Whole genome association mapping by incompatibilities and local perfect phylogenies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mailund, Thomas; Besenbacher, Søren; Schierup, Mikkel Heide

2006-01-01

around each marker that is compatible with a single phylogenetic tree. This perfect phylogenetic tree is treated as a decision tree for determining disease status, and scored by its accuracy as a decision tree. The rationale for this is that the perfect phylogeny near a disease affecting mutation should...... a fast method for accurate localisation of disease causing variants in high density case-control association mapping experiments with large numbers of cases and controls. The method searches for significant clustering of case chromosomes in the "perfect" phylogenetic tree defined by the largest region...... provide more information about the affected/unaffected classification than random trees. If regions of compatibility contain few markers, due to e.g. large marker spacing, the algorithm can allow the inclusion of incompatibility markers in order to enlarge the regions prior to estimating their phylogeny...

Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

2009-01-01

We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

2017-10-01

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the

Quantum recurrence and fractional dynamic localization in ac-driven perfect state transfer Hamiltonians

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Longhi, Stefano

2014-01-01

Quantum recurrence and dynamic localization are investigated in a class of ac-driven tight-binding Hamiltonians, the Krawtchouk quantum chain, which in the undriven case provides a paradigmatic Hamiltonian model that realizes perfect quantum state transfer and mirror inversion. The equivalence between the ac-driven single-particle Krawtchouk Hamiltonian H -hat (t) and the non-interacting ac-driven bosonic junction Hamiltonian enables to determine in a closed form the quasi energy spectrum of H -hat (t) and the conditions for exact wave packet reconstruction (dynamic localization). In particular, we show that quantum recurrence, which is predicted by the general quantum recurrence theorem, is exact for the Krawtchouk quantum chain in a dense range of the driving amplitude. Exact quantum recurrence provides perfect wave packet reconstruction at a frequency which is fractional than the driving frequency, a phenomenon that can be referred to as fractional dynamic localization

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Rosenberg

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and �

An Infinite Family of Circulant Graphs with Perfect State Transfer in Discrete Quantum Walks

OpenAIRE

Zhan, Hanmeng

2017-01-01

We study perfect state transfer in a discrete quantum walk. In particular, we show that there are infinitely many $4$-regular circulant graphs that admit perfect state transfer between antipodal vertices. To the best of our knowledge, previously there was no infinite family of $k$-regular graphs with perfect state transfer, for any $k\\ge 3$.

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

SysML Model of the Pick and Place Unit for Papyrus UML: Scenario Sc4b

OpenAIRE

Vogel-Heuser, Birgit; Folmer, Jens; Legat, Christoph

2014-01-01

The Pick and Place Unit (PPU) is a bench-scale lab demonstrator which is open to the research community to investigate a variety of different topics. To conduct research on the evolution of production automation systems, a variety of different manifestations of the PPU (referred to as scenarios) were developed. A documentation of the PPU and its scenarios is publicly available at www.ppu-demonstrator.org. In this zipped file, a SysML model consisting of state charts and block definition diagr...

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Programmatic material on perfection of competition activity of highly skilled basketball players.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sushko Ruslana Aleksandrovna

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The special facilities are considered for creation of the programs of correction of training process and perfection of competitiveness activity. Basic estimations and structure of correction of technical tactical actions are resulted. It is set that programmatic material must take into account playing specialization of basketball-player, model indexes. It is also necessary to take into account optimization and modification of existent technologies of estimation of technical tactical actions.

Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-05

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

Perfect synchronization in networks of phase-frustrated oscillators

Science.gov (United States)

Kundu, Prosenjit; Hens, Chittaranjan; Barzel, Baruch; Pal, Pinaki

2017-11-01

Synchronizing phase-frustrated Kuramoto oscillators, a challenge that has found applications from neuronal networks to the power grid, is an eluding problem, as even small phase lags cause the oscillators to avoid synchronization. Here we show, constructively, how to strategically select the optimal frequency set, capturing the natural frequencies of all oscillators, for a given network and phase lags, that will ensure perfect synchronization. We find that high levels of synchronization are sustained in the vicinity of the optimal set, allowing for some level of deviation in the frequencies without significant degradation of synchronization. Demonstrating our results on first- and second-order phase-frustrated Kuramoto dynamics, we implement them on both model and real power grid networks, showing how to achieve synchronization in a phase-frustrated environment.

Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment - timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD), provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs which form part of the natural evolution of the system and those which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics

High resolution climate scenarios for snowmelt modelling in small alpine catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schirmer, M.; Peleg, N.; Burlando, P.; Jonas, T.

2017-12-01

Snow in the Alps is affected by climate change with regard to duration, timing and amount. This has implications with respect to important societal issues as drinking water supply or hydropower generation. In Switzerland, the latter received a lot of attention following the political decision to phase out of nuclear electricity production. An increasing number of authorization requests for small hydropower plants located in small alpine catchments was observed in the recent years. This situation generates ecological conflicts, while the expected climate change poses a threat to water availability thus putting at risk investments in such hydropower plants. Reliable high-resolution climate scenarios are thus required, which account for small-scale processes to achieve realistic predictions of snowmelt runoff and its variability in small alpine catchments. We therefore used a novel model chain by coupling a stochastic 2-dimensional weather generator (AWE-GEN-2d) with a state-of-the-art energy balance snow cover model (FSM). AWE-GEN-2d was applied to generate ensembles of climate variables at very fine temporal and spatial resolution, thus providing all climatic input variables required for the energy balance modelling. The land-surface model FSM was used to describe spatially variable snow cover accumulation and melt processes. The FSM was refined to allow applications at very high spatial resolution by specifically accounting for small-scale processes, such as a subgrid-parametrization of snow covered area or an improved representation of forest-snow processes. For the present study, the model chain was tested for current climate conditions using extensive observational dataset of different spatial and temporal coverage. Small-scale spatial processes such as elevation gradients or aspect differences in the snow distribution were evaluated using airborne LiDAR data. 40-year of monitoring data for snow water equivalent, snowmelt and snow-covered area for entire

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krivtchik Guillaume

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-01

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

Perfect lensing with phase-conjugating surfaces: toward practical realization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maslovski, Stanislav; Tretyakov, Sergei

2012-01-01

It is theoretically known that a pair of phase-conjugating surfaces can function as a perfect lens, focusing propagating waves and enhancing evanescent waves. However, the known experimental approaches based on thin sheets of nonlinear materials cannot fully realize the required phase conjugation boundary condition. In this paper, we show that the ideal phase-conjugating surface is, in principle, physically realizable and investigate the necessary properties of nonlinear and nonreciprocal particles which can be used to build a perfect lens system. The physical principle of the lens operation is discussed in detail and directions of possible experimental realizations are outlined. (paper)

MODELLING OF SCENARIOS OF THE CRISIS PHENOMENA TRANSFER AMONG FINANCIAL MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inna Strelchenko

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of crisis transference among financial markets in different countries is especially evident during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Abnormal imbalances emerged in the market of secondary financial instruments in the United States in the second half of 2006 and quickly spread to the financial markets of most countries of the world. However, the rate of fall of the main macroeconomic indicators, the duration of the latent period (the time between the date of the beginning of the financial crisis in the source country and date of the recorded fall in GDP of the country that is subjected to “contagion” (Strelchenko, 2016, and recovery period are substantially different. To generate an effective economic policy actually, there is a task of determining the possible scenarios of transferring crisis. The research subject is a process of transfer of the crisis phenomena among the financial markets of countries with different levels of economic development. Methodology. The paper presents the results of a study on the differentiation of the financial markets reactions to the crisis transfer. To build the corresponding classification model, self-organization Kohonen neural networks are used. The purpose of this work is to build a neural network model for clustering economies according to the response to external financial shocks. This model allows predicting the scenarios of transferring crisis among financial markets. Conclusion. As a result of the study, there is built a neural network with the architecture of the Kohonen map. The neural network has one hidden layer consisting of six neurons and has a hexagonal structure. Six clusters describe six possible scenarios of the economy dynamics under the impact of the transfer of crises. Cluster number one and two unite countries characterized by a short period of economic recovery and return of the main macroeconomic indicators to the precrisis levels. A longer recovery period and

Construction and Evaluation of Scenarios as a Learning Strategy through Modelling-Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa

2014-12-01

Full Text Available From a systemic perspective and in the context of an increasing generalization in the use of new technologies and the change in the educational paradigm -which emphasizes guided and autonomous learning-, the learning strategy should be routed to join logical reasoning and instrumental skills (software. The inclusion of new computing and communication resources to the learning process turns them into teaching tools, which makes it possible to organize the teaching and learning process in a different way. The design of these new scenarios of study has important implications to the way information is processed, to the different levels of learning (descriptive, explanatory or analytical ones and to the way knowledge is acquired and evaluated. In addition, that design takes into account the greater student-content, student-student and student-teacher interactivities, always emphasizing guided independent learning. Thus, the construction, analysis and evaluation of scenarios through models and simulation are the strategy that best suits the current learning style followed by students.

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

Downscaling SSPs in Bangladesh - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, A.; Barbour, E.; Salehin, M.; Hutton, C.; Lázár, A. N.; Nicholls, R. J.; Rahman, M. M.

2015-12-01

A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems - 15483

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuznetsov, V.; Fesenko, G.

2015-01-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21. century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled 'Global scenarios' is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21. century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries' different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies. (authors)

On the uniqueness of static perfect-fluid solutions in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beig, R.; Simon, W.

1990-01-01

Following earlier work of Masood-ul-Alam, we consider a uniqueness problem for nonrotating stellar models. Given a static, asymptotically flat perfect-fluid spacetime with barotropic equation of state ρ(p), and given another such spacetime which is spherically symmetric and has the same ρ(p) and the same surface potential: we prove that both are identical provided ρ(p) satisfies a certain differential inequality. This inequality is more natural and less restrictive that the conditions required by Masood-ul-Alam. 30 refs. (Authors)

Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Villone, F.; Mastrostefano, S. [Euratom-ENEA-CREATE Ass., DIEI, Univ. di Cassino e Lazio Merid., Cassino (Italy); Calabrò, G.; Vlad, G.; Crisanti, F.; Fusco, V. [C. R. Frascati, Euratom-ENEA Ass., Via E. Fermi 45, 00044 Frascati (Italy); Marchiori, G.; Bolzonella, T.; Marrelli, L.; Martin, P. [Cons. RFX, Euratom-ENEA-RFX Ass., Corso Stati Uniti 4, 35127 Padova (Italy); Liu, Y. Q. [Euratom/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Mantica, P. [IFP-CNR, Euratom-ENEA-CNR Ass. Via Cozzi 53, 20125 Milano (Italy)

2014-08-15

One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at I{sub p} = 10 MA, B{sub T} = 8.5 T, q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values.

What is anthropological about The Perfect Human?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Line Hassall

2015-01-01

Jørgen Leth has classified The Perfect Human as an anthropological film. But is the film anthropological at all? This article explores Leth’s connections with anthropology and finds that he is more inspired by anthropological framing than he is by anthropological research methods....

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

Diffraction of love waves by two staggered perfectly weak half-planes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asghar, S.; Zaman, F.D.; Sajida Asghar

1989-01-01

Love wave travelling in a layer of uniform thickness overlying a half-space is assumed to be incident on two parallel but staggered perfectly weak half-planes lying in the upper layer. The diffracted fields is calculated using the modified Wiener-Hopf technique and contour integration method. The diffracted waves satisfy the dispersion relations appropriate to different regions formed by the perfectly weak half-planes

Evolution Scenarios at the Romanian Economy Level, Using the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stelian Stancu

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Maxwell's fish-eye lens and the mirage of perfect imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merlin, R

2011-01-01

Recent claims that Maxwell's fish-eye is a perfect lens, capable of providing images with deep subwavelength resolution, are examined. We show that the imaging properties of a dispersionless fish-eye are very similar to those of an ideal spherical cavity. Using this correspondence, we prove that the correct solution to Maxwell equations in the fish-eye gives image sizes that are consistent with the standard diffraction limit. Perfect focusing is an optical illusion that results from placing a time-reversed source at the position of the geometrical image which, when combined with the field due to the primary (object) source, mimics the behavior of a perfect drain. Issues of causality are briefly discussed. We also demonstrate that passive outlets are not a good alternative to time-reversed sources for broadband drain-like behavior and that, even if they were, they could not do a better job than conventional optical systems at providing high resolution

Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israelyan Musheg

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Making perfect life : bio-engineering (in) the 21st century : interim study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Est, van R.; Keulen, van I.; Geesink, I.; Schuiff, M.

2010-01-01

Reportnumber: PE 438.829; This document is the result of the preparatory phase of the STOA-project "Making perfect life", that defined the project focus. This resulted in the study document Making Perfect Life: Bio-engineering (in) the 21st century. A project plan for the next two phases was

Hit by a Perfect Storm? Art & Design in the National Student Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Yorke, Mantz; Orr, Susan; Blair, Bernadette

2014-01-01

There has long been the suspicion amongst staff in Art & Design that the ratings given to their subject disciplines in the UK's National Student Survey are adversely affected by a combination of circumstances--a "perfect storm". The "perfect storm" proposition is tested by comparing ratings for Art & Design with those…

Investigating the need for complex vs. simple scenarios to improve predictions of aquatic ecosystem exposure with the SoilPlus model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghirardello, Davide; Morselli, Melissa; Otto, Stefan; Zanin, Giuseppe; Di Guardo, Antonio

2014-01-01

A spatially-explicit version of the recent multimedia fate model SoilPlus was developed and applied to predict the runoff of three pesticides in a small agricultural watershed in north-eastern Italy. In order to evaluate model response to increasing spatial resolution, a tiered simulation approach was adopted, also using a dynamic model for surface water (DynA model), to predict the fate of pesticides in runoff water and sediment, and concentrations in river water. Simulation outputs were compared to water concentrations measured in the basin. Results showed that a high spatial resolution and scenario complexity improved model predictions of metolachlor and terbuthylazine in runoff to an acceptable performance (R 2 = 0.64–0.70). The importance was also shown of a field-based database of properties (i.e. soil texture and organic carbon, rainfall and water flow, pesticides half-life in soil) in reducing the distance between predicted and measured surface water concentrations and its relevance for risk assessment. Highlights: • A GIS based model was developed to predict pesticide fate in soil and water. • Spatial scenario was obtained at field level for a small agricultural basin. • A tiered strategy was applied to test the performance gain with complexity. • Increased details of scenario as well as the role of surface water are relevant. -- In order to obtain more ecologically realistic predictions of pulse exposure in aquatic ecosystems detailed information about the scenario is required

Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

2014-01-01

The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

Main considerations for modelling a station blackout scenario with trace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Querol, Andrea; Turégano, Jara; Lorduy, María; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo

2017-01-01

In the nuclear safety field, the thermal hydraulic phenomena that take place during an accident in a nuclear power plant is of special importance. One of the most studied accidents is the Station BlackOut (SBO). The aim of the present work is the analysis of the PKL integral test facility nodalization using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE5 to reproduce a SBO accidental scenario. The PKL facility reproduces the main components of the primary and secondary systems of its reference nuclear power plant (Philippsburg II). The results obtained with different nodalization have been compared: 3D vessel vs 1D vessel, Steam Generator (SG) modelling using PIPE or TEE components and pressurizer modelling with PIPE or PRIZER components. Both vessel nodalization (1D vessel and 3D vessel) reproduce the physical phenomena of the experiment. However, there are significant discrepancies between them. The appropriate modelling of the SG is also relevant in the results. Regarding the other nodalization (PIPE or TEE components for SG and PIPE or PRIZER components for pressurizer), do not produce relevant differences in the results. (author)

Main considerations for modelling a station blackout scenario with trace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Querol, Andrea; Turégano, Jara; Lorduy, María; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo, E-mail: anquevi@upv.es, E-mail: jaturna@upv.es, E-mail: maloral@upv.es, E-mail: sergalbe@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Instituto Universitario de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofísica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM), Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain)

2017-07-01

In the nuclear safety field, the thermal hydraulic phenomena that take place during an accident in a nuclear power plant is of special importance. One of the most studied accidents is the Station BlackOut (SBO). The aim of the present work is the analysis of the PKL integral test facility nodalization using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE5 to reproduce a SBO accidental scenario. The PKL facility reproduces the main components of the primary and secondary systems of its reference nuclear power plant (Philippsburg II). The results obtained with different nodalization have been compared: 3D vessel vs 1D vessel, Steam Generator (SG) modelling using PIPE or TEE components and pressurizer modelling with PIPE or PRIZER components. Both vessel nodalization (1D vessel and 3D vessel) reproduce the physical phenomena of the experiment. However, there are significant discrepancies between them. The appropriate modelling of the SG is also relevant in the results. Regarding the other nodalization (PIPE or TEE components for SG and PIPE or PRIZER components for pressurizer), do not produce relevant differences in the results. (author)

Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Shuhao

This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from....... By linking our prototype translators with existing model checker Uppaal and game solver Uppaal-Tiga, we show that these methods contribute to the interaction correctness and timeliness of early system designs. The thesis also shows that testing a real-time reactive system can be viewed as playing a timed...... communicating real-time systems can be modeled and specified with LSC. By translating LSC to timed automata (TAs), we reduce scenario-based model consistency checking and property verification to CTL real-time model checking problems, and reduce scenario-based synthesis to a timed game solving problem...

Tie-breaking in games of perfect information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tranæs, Torben

1998-01-01

The paper suggests that ties in an extensive form game have strategic implications if they represent credible threats or promises. We consider a subset of subgame-perfect Nash equilibria obtained by breaking ties according to their strategic implications, and show that the subset is nonempty for ...

A not-so-short description of the PERFECT platform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bugat, S.; Zeghadi, A.; Adjanor, G.

2010-01-01

This article describes the building of the so-called 'PERFECT platform', which main issue was to allow the development of the PERFECT end-products dedicated to the prediction of the degradation of material properties due to irradiation. First, the general principles used to build the platform are detailed. Such principles guided the choices of preferential development language, architecture, and operating system. The architecture of the platform is then described. It allows an easy development of the end-products, and a 'black-box' integration of the codes developed during the project. Each end-product can be seen as a sequence of modules, each module representing a physical phenomenon in time and space. The platform is very flexible, so that different methodologies can be tested and compared inside an end-product. The second part is devoted to the description of a classical PERFECT study, defined thanks to the graphical user interface developed in the project. Focus is made in particular on how a selection of modules is done, how the input data can be entered, and how the study execution is fully controlled by the user. A final description of the post-processing facilities on the results is exposed.

Validation of Tilt Gain under Realistic Path Loss Model and Network Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Huan Cong; Rodriguez, Ignacio; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

2013-01-01

Despite being a simple and commonly-applied radio optimization technique, the impact on practical network performance from base station antenna downtilt is not well understood. Most published studies based on empirical path loss models report tilt angles and performance gains that are far higher...... than practical experience suggests. We motivate in this paper, based on a practical LTE scenario, that the discrepancy partly lies in the path loss model, and shows that a more detailed semi-deterministic model leads to both lower gains in terms of SINR, outage probability and downlink throughput...... settings, including the use of electrical and/or mechanical antenna downtilt, and therefore it is possible to find multiple optimum tilt profiles in a practical case. A broader implication of this study is that care must be taken when using the 3GPP model to evaluate advanced adaptive antenna techniques...

A proactive condition-based maintenance strategy with both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Do, Phuc; Voisin, Alexandre; Levrat, Eric; Iung, Benoit

2015-01-01

This paper deals with a proactive condition-based maintenance (CBM) considering both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions for a deteriorating system. Perfect maintenance actions restore completely the system to the ‘as good as new’ state. Their related cost are however often high. The first objective of the paper is to investigate the impacts of imperfect maintenance actions. In fact, both positive and negative impacts are considered. Positive impact means that the imperfect maintenance cost is usually low. Negative impact implies that (i) the imperfect maintenance restores a system to a state between good-as-new and bad-as-old and (ii) each imperfect preventive action may accelerate the speed of the system's deterioration process. The second objective of the paper is to propose an adaptive maintenance policy which can help to select optimally maintenance actions (perfect or imperfect actions), if needed, at each inspection time. Moreover, the time interval between two successive inspection points is determined according to a remaining useful life (RUL) based-inspection policy. To illustrate the use of the proposed maintenance policy, a numerical example finally is introduced. - Highlights: • A new imperfect maintenance model for deterioration system is proposed. • Both positive and negative impacts of an imperfect maintenance action are investigated. • An adaptive condition-based maintenance policy is introduced. • The optimal number of useful imperfect maintenance actions for each life cycle is optimally provided

Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas

2008-01-01

different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning......-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses...... effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise....

On the Contribution of Slovenian Linguistics to the History of the Ancient Greek Perfect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerneja Kavčič

2010-12-01

Full Text Available An important contribution to the history of the Ancient Greek perfect is the study of Erika Mihevc-Gabrovec, The Disappearance of the Perfect in Late Greek (La disparition du parfait dans le grec de la basse époque. In terms of theory and content, her study continues the work of Pierre Chantraine, but somewhat diverges from her predecessor’s views on the issue of the merger between the aorist and the perfect, identifying examples of the use of the perfect even in an – according to Pierre Chantraine – relatively late period.  Some years after the publication of Erika Mihevc-Gabrovec’s book, the question of when the aorist and the perfect may have merged was raised again, to be addressed by McKay in a number of articles. Today, the views on the subject are strongly divided.   As argued by the author of this paper, one of the setbacks in examining the merger between the aorist and the perfect concerns the methodology, since researchers have tended to rely exclusively on their sense of language. A possible new approach is offered in the framework of the Slovenian theory of Natural Syntax, which has from the start paid considerable attention to English sentences of the I believe her to be intelligent type. The paper describes similar sentences in New Testament Greek, terming them “sentences of the λέγουσινἀνάστασινμὴεἶναι type”. In New Testament Greek, they display a tendency to use the present infinitive of stative verbs; relatively frequent is also the perfect infinitive (of non-stative verbs, while, as already noted in other studies, these sentences – at least in New Testament Greek – avoid the aorist infinitive. Such sentences thus bear witness to the fact that the aorist and the perfect were not fully interchangeable in New Testament Greek; the status of the aorist and perfect infinitives in sentences of the λέγουσινἀνάστασινμὴεἶναι type should also be taken into

Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

Science.gov (United States)

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-03-01

A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perfectly Secure Oblivious RAM without Random Oracles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Meldgaard, Sigurd Torkel; Nielsen, Jesper Buus

2011-01-01

We present an algorithm for implementing a secure oblivious RAM where the access pattern is perfectly hidden in the information theoretic sense, without assuming that the CPU has access to a random oracle. In addition we prove a lower bound on the amount of randomness needed for implementing...

Perfect Fluid Theory and its Extensions

OpenAIRE

Jackiw, R.; Nair, V. P.; Pi, S. -Y.; Polychronakos, A. P.

2004-01-01

We review the canonical theory for perfect fluids, in Eulerian and Lagrangian formulations. The theory is related to a description of extended structures in higher dimensions. Internal symmetry and supersymmetry degrees of freedom are incorporated. Additional miscellaneous subjects that are covered include physical topics concerning quantization, as well as mathematical issues of volume preserving diffeomorphisms and representations of Chern-Simons terms (= vortex or magnetic helicity).

Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

2017-01-01

Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

On the perfect hexagonal packing of rods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Starostin, E L

2006-01-01

In most cases the hexagonal packing of fibrous structures or rods extremizes the energy of interaction between strands. If the strands are not straight, then it is still possible to form a perfect hexatic bundle. Conditions under which the perfect hexagonal packing of curved tubular structures may exist are formulated. Particular attention is given to closed or cycled arrangements of the rods like in the DNA toroids and spools. The closure or return constraints of the bundle result in an allowable group of automorphisms of the cross-sectional hexagonal lattice. The structure of this group is explored. Examples of open helical-like and closed toroidal-like bundles are presented. An expression for the elastic energy of a perfectly packed bundle of thin elastic rods is derived. The energy accounts for both the bending and torsional stiffnesses of the rods. It is shown that equilibria of the bundle correspond to solutions of a variational problem formulated for the curve representing the axis of the bundle. The functional involves a function of the squared curvature under the constraints on the total torsion and the length. The Euler-Lagrange equations are obtained in terms of curvature and torsion and due to the existence of the first integrals the problem is reduced to the quadrature. The three-dimensional shape of the bundle may be readily reconstructed by integration of the Ilyukhin-type equations in special cylindrical coordinates. The results are of universal nature and are applicable to various fibrous structures, in particular, to intramolecular liquid crystals formed by DNA condensed in toroids or packed inside the viral capsids

The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

2017-01-01

State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

Integrated municipal solid waste scenario model using advanced pretreatment and waste to energy processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionescu, Gabriela; Rada, Elena Cristina; Ragazzi, Marco; Mărculescu, Cosmin; Badea, Adrian; Apostol, Tiberiu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Appropriate solution for MSW management in new and future EU countries. • Decrease of landfill disposal applying an Integrated MSW approach. • Technological impediments and environmental assessment. - Abstract: In this paper an Integrated Municipal Solid Waste scenario model (IMSW-SM) with a potential practical application in the waste management sector is analyzed. The model takes into account quantification and characterization of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) streams from different sources, selective collection (SC), advanced mechanical sorting, material recovery and advanced thermal treatment. The paper provides a unique chain of advanced waste pretreatment stages of fully commingled waste streams, leading to an original set of suggestions and future contributions to a sustainable IMSWS, taking into account real data and EU principles. The selection of the input data was made on MSW management real case studies from two European regions. Four scenarios were developed varying mainly SC strategies and thermal treatment options. The results offer useful directions for decision makers in order to calibrate modern strategies in different realities

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-12-18

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

Perfect state of Cryptococcus neoformans, Filobasidiella neoformans, on pigeon manure filtrate agar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staib, F.

1981-02-01

To enable studies of the dependence of Cryptococcus neoformans and its perfect and imperfect states upon bird manure as a habitat of this pathogen, a nutrient medium closely resembling natural conditions was prepared. As sole nutrient, the water soluble ingredients of manure from pigeons (Columbia livia) were used. There was no heat sterilization of the manure filtrate. Using a standard pair of C. neoformans strains for mating, it could be demonstrated that the perfect state of the fungus developed on this so called pigeon manure filtrate agar within 48 h at 26 degrees C. This medium is supposed to help in the elucidation of the epidemiological significance of the perfect and imperfect states of this pathogen.

Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir I. Abramov

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

New class of inhomogeneous cosmological perfect-fluid solutions without big-bang singularity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senovilla, J.M.M. (Grupo de Fisica Teorica, Departamento de Fisica, Ingenieria y Radiologia Medica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Salamanca, 37008 Salmanaca (Spain))

1990-05-07

A new class of exact solutions to Einstein's field equations with a perfect-fluid source is presented. The solutions describe spatially inhomogeneous cosmological models and have a realistic equation of state {ital p}={rho}/3. The properties of the solutions are discussed. The most remarkable feature is the absence of an initial singularity, the curvature and matter invariants being regular and smooth everywhere. We also present an alternative interpretation of the solution as a globally regular cylindrically symmetric space-time.

Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roshan GholamReza

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

2012-12-12

The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

Hyper-Achievement, Perfection, and College Student Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Eells, Gregory T.

2017-01-01

Over the past decade, there has been considerable attention given to college students' experience of pressure to pursue perfection through hyper-achievement and the psychological and emotional toll this process takes on them. The popular press has highlighted this phenomenon and raised specific questions about some of the related consequences like…

Generalized magneto-thermoviscoelasticity in a perfectly conducting ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

on the theory of generalized thermoelastic diffusion with one relaxation time. ... cavity is taken to be traction free and subjected to both heating and external constant ... problems on wave propagation in a linear viscoelas- ... Let us consider a perfect electric conductor medium ... The energy equation in the context of general-.

Channel Measurement and Modeling for 5G Urban Microcellular Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Peter

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In order to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, multiple urban microcellular measurement campaigns have been carried out in Berlin, Germany, at 60 and 10 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL and the delay spread (DS. It reveals that the ground reflection has a dominant impact on the fading behavior. For line-of-sight conditions, the PL exponents are close to free space propagation at 60 GHz, but slightly smaller (1.62 for the street canyon at 10 GHz. The DS shows a clear dependence on the scenario (median values between 16 and 38 ns and a strong distance dependence for the open square and the wide street canyon. The dependence is less distinct for the narrow street canyon with residential buildings. This behavior is consistent with complementary ray tracing simulations, though the simplified model tends to overestimate the DS.

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

Breast milk is conditionally perfect.

Science.gov (United States)

Erick, Miriam

2018-02-01

Breast milk is the universal preferred nutrition for the newborn human infant. New mother have been encouraged to exclusively breastfeed by health care professionals and consumer-advocacy forums for years, citing "breast milk is the perfect food". The benefits are numerous and include psychological, convenience, economical, ecological and nutritionally superior. Human milk is a composite of nutritional choices of the mother, commencing in the pre-conceptual era. Events influencing the eventual nutritional profile of breast milk for the neonate start with pre-conceptual dietary habits through pregnancy and finally to postpartum. Food choices do affect the nutritional profile of human breast milk. It is not known who coined the phrase "breast milk is the perfect food" but it is widely prevalent in the literature. While breast milk is highly nutritive, containing important immunological and growth factors, scientific investigation reveals a few short-falls. Overall, human breast milk has been found to be low in certain nutrients in developed countries: vitamin D, iodine, iron, and vitamin K. Additional nutrient deficiencies have been documented in resource-poor countries: vitamin A, vitamin B 12, zinc, and vitamin B 1/thiamin. Given these findings, isn't it more accurate to describe breast milk as "conditionally perfect"? Correcting the impression that breast milk is an inherently, automatically comprehensive enriched product would encourage women who plan to breastfeed an opportunity to concentrate on dietary improvement to optimizes nutrient benefits ultimately to the neonate. The more immediate result would improve pre-conceptual nutritional status. Here, we explore the nutritional status of groups of young women; some of whom will become pregnant and eventually produce breast milk. We will review the available literature profiling vitamin, mineral, protein and caloric content of breast milk. We highlight pre-existing situations needing correction to optimize