WorldWideScience

Sample records for perfect model scenario

  1. Development of a perfect prognosis probabilistic model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A prediction model based on the perfect prognosis method was developed to predict the probability of lightning and probable time of its occurrence over the south-east Indian region. In the perfect prognosis method, statistical relationships are established using past observed data. For real time applications, the predictors ...

  2. Simulation of MILD combustion using Perfectly Stirred Reactor model

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Z.; Vanteru, Mahendra Reddy; Ruan, S.; Doan, N. A K; Roberts, William L.; Swaminathan, N.

    2016-01-01

    A simple model based on a Perfectly Stirred Reactor (PSR) is proposed for moderate or intense low-oxygen dilution (MILD) combustion. The PSR calculation is performed covering the entire flammability range and the tabulated chemistry approach is used

  3. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  4. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  5. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  6. Inhomogeneous generalizations of Bianchi type VIh models with perfect fluid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, S. R.; Prasad, A.

    1991-07-01

    Inhomogeneous universes admitting an Abelian G2 of isometry and filled with perfect fluid have been derived. These contain as special cases exact homogeneous universes of Bianchi type VIh. Many of these universes asymptotically tend to homogeneous Bianchi VIh universes. The models have been discussed for their physical and kinematical behaviors.

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  8. Spherically symmetric Einstein-aether perfect fluid models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coley, Alan A.; Latta, Joey [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 3J5 (Canada); Leon, Genly [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Casilla 4950, Valparaíso (Chile); Sandin, Patrik, E-mail: aac@mathstat.dal.ca, E-mail: genly.leon@ucv.cl, E-mail: patrik.sandin@aei.mpg.de, E-mail: lattaj@mathstat.dal.ca [Max-Planck-Institut für Gravitationsphysik (Albert-Einstein-Institut), Am Mühlenberg 1, D-14476 Potsdam (Germany)

    2015-12-01

    We investigate spherically symmetric cosmological models in Einstein-aether theory with a tilted (non-comoving) perfect fluid source. We use a 1+3 frame formalism and adopt the comoving aether gauge to derive the evolution equations, which form a well-posed system of first order partial differential equations in two variables. We then introduce normalized variables. The formalism is particularly well-suited for numerical computations and the study of the qualitative properties of the models, which are also solutions of Horava gravity. We study the local stability of the equilibrium points of the resulting dynamical system corresponding to physically realistic inhomogeneous cosmological models and astrophysical objects with values for the parameters which are consistent with current constraints. In particular, we consider dust models in (β−) normalized variables and derive a reduced (closed) evolution system and we obtain the general evolution equations for the spatially homogeneous Kantowski-Sachs models using appropriate bounded normalized variables. We then analyse these models, with special emphasis on the future asymptotic behaviour for different values of the parameters. Finally, we investigate static models for a mixture of a (necessarily non-tilted) perfect fluid with a barotropic equations of state and a scalar field.

  9. Perfect fluid models in noncomoving observational spherical coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishak, Mustapha

    2004-01-01

    We use null spherical (observational) coordinates to describe a class of inhomogeneous cosmological models. The proposed cosmological construction is based on the observer past null cone. A known difficulty in using inhomogeneous models is that the null geodesic equation is not integrable in general. Our choice of null coordinates solves the radial ingoing null geodesic by construction. Furthermore, we use an approach where the velocity field is uniquely calculated from the metric rather than put in by hand. Conveniently, this allows us to explore models in a noncomoving frame of reference. In this frame, we find that the velocity field has shear, acceleration, and expansion rate in general. We show that a comoving frame is not compatible with expanding perfect fluid models in the coordinates proposed and dust models are simply not possible. We describe the models in a noncomoving frame. We use the dust models in a noncomoving frame to outline a fitting procedure

  10. Neoliberalism and Education in an International Perspective: Chile as Perfect Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Aravena

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In our modern society, governments, civil society and private sector are concerned about education as it is a key to build a successful community. This paper seeks to analyse, through one particular country, how the education system can change when neoliberalism is implemented as a framework in educational terms. This paper focuses on Chile and its education system adopting an international comparative perspective, using empirical examples and cases within a Latin America scenario. Chilean education system has created a controversial, complex and unique relationship between neoliberalism and education. This relationship has configured a complex social context increasing the gap between rich and poor. At the same time, Chilean education system has reproduced social classes in discourse and practice trough of a dramatic social stratification. In this particular case, we confirm that neoliberalism has generated an education system that is highly segregated and selective. Improvisation has been utilised as a political strategy to reduce neoliberal impacts on education.

  11. Simulation of MILD combustion using Perfectly Stirred Reactor model

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Z.

    2016-07-06

    A simple model based on a Perfectly Stirred Reactor (PSR) is proposed for moderate or intense low-oxygen dilution (MILD) combustion. The PSR calculation is performed covering the entire flammability range and the tabulated chemistry approach is used with a presumed joint probability density function (PDF). The jet, in hot and diluted coflow experimental set-up under MILD conditions, is simulated using this reactor model for two oxygen dilution levels. The computed results for mean temperature, major and minor species mass fractions are compared with the experimental data and simulation results obtained recently using a multi-environment transported PDF approach. Overall, a good agreement is observed at three different axial locations for these comparisons despite the over-predicted peak value of CO formation. This suggests that MILD combustion can be effectively modelled by the proposed PSR model with lower computational cost.

  12. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  13. Circuital model for the spherical geodesic waveguide perfect drain

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Juan C.; Grabovičkić, Dejan; Benítez, Pablo; Miñano, Juan C.

    2012-08-01

    The perfect drain for the Maxwell fish eye (MFE) is a non-magnetic dissipative region placed in the focal point to absorb all the incident radiation without reflection or scattering. The perfect drain was recently designed as a material with complex permittivity that depends on frequency. However, this material is only a theoretical material, so it cannot be used in practical devices. The perfect drain has been claimed as necessary for achieving super-resolution (Leonhardt 2009 New J. Phys. 11 093040), which has increased the interest in practical perfect drains suitable for manufacturing. Here, we present a practical perfect drain that is designed using a simple circuit (made of a resistance and a capacitor) connected to the coaxial line. Moreover, we analyze the super-resolution properties of a device equivalent to the MFE, known as a spherical geodesic waveguide, loaded with this perfect drain. The super-resolution analysis for this device is carried out using COMSOL Multiphysics. The results of simulations predict a super-resolution of up to λ/3000.

  14. Circuital model for the spherical geodesic waveguide perfect drain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González, Juan C; Grabovičkić, Dejan; Benítez, Pablo; Miñano, Juan C

    2012-01-01

    The perfect drain for the Maxwell fish eye (MFE) is a non-magnetic dissipative region placed in the focal point to absorb all the incident radiation without reflection or scattering. The perfect drain was recently designed as a material with complex permittivity that depends on frequency. However, this material is only a theoretical material, so it cannot be used in practical devices. The perfect drain has been claimed as necessary for achieving super-resolution (Leonhardt 2009 New J. Phys. 11 093040), which has increased the interest in practical perfect drains suitable for manufacturing. Here, we present a practical perfect drain that is designed using a simple circuit (made of a resistance and a capacitor) connected to the coaxial line. Moreover, we analyze the super-resolution properties of a device equivalent to the MFE, known as a spherical geodesic waveguide, loaded with this perfect drain. The super-resolution analysis for this device is carried out using COMSOL Multiphysics. The results of simulations predict a super-resolution of up to λ/3000. (paper)

  15. Kantowski-Sachs Einstein-æther perfect fluid models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latta, Joey [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 3J5 (Canada); Leon, Genly [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad de Católica de Valparaíso, Casilla 4950, Valparaíso (Chile); Paliathanasis, Andronikos, E-mail: lattaj@mathstat.dal.ca, E-mail: genly.leon@pucv.cl, E-mail: anpaliat@phys.uoa.gr [Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia (Chile)

    2016-11-01

    We investigate Kantowski-Sachs models in Einstein-æ ther theory with a perfect fluid source using the singularity analysis to prove the integrability of the field equations and dynamical system tools to study the evolution. We find an inflationary source at early times, and an inflationary sink at late times, for a wide region in the parameter space. The results by A.A. Coley, G. Leon, P. Sandin and J. Latta ( JCAP 12 (2015) 010), are then re-obtained as particular cases. Additionally, we select other values for the non-GR parameters which are consistent with current constraints, getting a very rich phenomenology. In particular, we find solutions with infinite shear, zero curvature, and infinite matter energy density in comparison with the Hubble scalar. We also have stiff-like future attractors, anisotropic late-time attractors, or both, in some special cases. Such results are developed analytically, and then verified by numerics. Finally, the physical interpretation of the new critical points is discussed.

  16. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  17. The Perfect Eye A Novel Model for Teaching the Theory of Refraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Daniel

    1999-01-01

    The Perfect Eye model simplifies solutions to a wide variety of optometry instructional problems by facilitating student understanding of the interaction among lenses, objects, accommodation, and ametropia. The model is based on the premise that inside every eye is a perfect (emmetropic) eye, and that the physiological eye is a combination of the…

  18. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  19. Exact EGB models for spherical static perfect fluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansraj, Sudan; Chilambwe, Brian; Maharaj, Sunil D. [University of KwaZulu-Natal, Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Private Bag 54001, Durban (South Africa)

    2015-06-15

    We obtain a new exact solution to the field equations for a 5-dimensional spherically symmetric static distribution in the Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet modified theory of gravity. By using a transformation, the study is reduced to the analysis of a single second order nonlinear differential equation. In general the condition of pressure isotropy produces a first order differential equation which is an Abel equation of the second kind. An exact solution is found. The solution is examined for physical admissibility. In particular a set of constants is found which ensures that a pressure-free hypersurface exists which defines the boundary of the distribution. Additionally the isotropic pressure and the energy density are shown to be positive within the radius of the sphere. The adiabatic sound-speed criterion is also satisfied within the fluid ensuring a subluminal sound speed. Furthermore, the weak, strong and dominant conditions hold throughout the distribution. On setting the Gauss-Bonnet coupling to zero, an exact solution for 5-dimensional perfect fluids in the standard Einstein theory is obtained. Plots of the dynamical quantities for the Gauss-Bonnet and the Einstein case reveal that the pressure is unaffected, while the energy density increases under the influence of the Gauss-Bonnet term. (orig.)

  20. A hybrid of monopoly and perfect competition model for hi-tech products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, P. C.; Wee, H. M.; Pai, S.; Yang, H. J.; Wee, P. K. P.

    2010-11-01

    For Hi-tech products, the demand rate, the component cost as well as the selling price usually decline significantly with time. In the case of perfect competition, shortages usually result in lost sales; while in a monopoly, shortages will be completely backordered. However, neither perfect competition nor monopoly exists. Therefore, there is a need to develop a replenishment model considering a hybrid of perfect competition and monopoly when the cost, price and demand are decreasing simultaneously. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis are carried out to illustrate this model. The results show that a higher decline-rate in the component cost leads to a smaller service level and a larger replenishment interval. When the component cost decline rate increases and the selling price decline rate decreases simultaneously, the replenishment interval decreases. In perfect competition it is better to have a high service level, while for the case with monopoly, keeping a low service level is better due to complete backordering.

  1. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  2. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  3. Effective high-order solver with thermally perfect gas model for hypersonic heating prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Zhenhua; Yan, Chao; Yu, Jian; Qu, Feng; Ma, Libin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Design proper numerical flux for thermally perfect gas. • Line-implicit LUSGS enhances efficiency without extra memory consumption. • Develop unified framework for both second-order MUSCL and fifth-order WENO. • The designed gas model can be applied to much wider temperature range. - Abstract: Effective high-order solver based on the model of thermally perfect gas has been developed for hypersonic heat transfer computation. The technique of polynomial curve fit coupling to thermodynamics equation is suggested to establish the current model and particular attention has been paid to the design of proper numerical flux for thermally perfect gas. We present procedures that unify five-order WENO (Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory) scheme in the existing second-order finite volume framework and a line-implicit method that improves the computational efficiency without increasing memory consumption. A variety of hypersonic viscous flows are performed to examine the capability of the resulted high order thermally perfect gas solver. Numerical results demonstrate its superior performance compared to low-order calorically perfect gas method and indicate its potential application to hypersonic heating predictions for real-life problem.

  4. Perfect fluid Bianchi Type-I cosmological models with time varying G ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Bianchi Type-I cosmological models containing perfect fluid with time vary- ing G and Λ have been presented. The solutions obtained represent an expansion scalar θ bearing a constant ratio to the anisotropy in the direction of space-like unit vector λi. Of the two models obtained, one has negative vacuum energy ...

  5. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  6. Effects of Perfectly Correlated and Anti-Correlated Noise in a Logistic Growth Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li; Cao Li

    2011-01-01

    The logistic growth model with correlated additive and multiplicative Gaussian white noise is used to analyze tumor cell population. The effects of perfectly correlated and anti-correlated noise on the stationary properties of tumor cell population are studied. As in both cases the diffusion coefficient has zero point in real number field, some special features of the system are arisen. It is found that in both cases, the increase of the multiplicative noise intensity cause tumor cell extinction. In the perfectly anti-correlated case, the stationary probability distribution as a function of tumor cell population exhibit two extrema. (general)

  7. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  8. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  9. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  10. Recurrent network models for perfect temporal integration of fluctuating correlated inputs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Okamoto

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal integration of input is essential to the accumulation of information in various cognitive and behavioral processes, and gradually increasing neuronal activity, typically occurring within a range of seconds, is considered to reflect such computation by the brain. Some psychological evidence suggests that temporal integration by the brain is nearly perfect, that is, the integration is non-leaky, and the output of a neural integrator is accurately proportional to the strength of input. Neural mechanisms of perfect temporal integration, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we propose a recurrent network model of cortical neurons that perfectly integrates partially correlated, irregular input spike trains. We demonstrate that the rate of this temporal integration changes proportionately to the probability of spike coincidences in synaptic inputs. We analytically prove that this highly accurate integration of synaptic inputs emerges from integration of the variance of the fluctuating synaptic inputs, when their mean component is kept constant. Highly irregular neuronal firing and spike coincidences are the major features of cortical activity, but they have been separately addressed so far. Our results suggest that the efficient protocol of information integration by cortical networks essentially requires both features and hence is heterotic.

  11. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  12. Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

    2004-01-01

    .... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

  13. Complementary responses to mean and variance modulations in the perfect integrate-and-fire model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressley, Joanna; Troyer, Todd W

    2009-07-01

    In the perfect integrate-and-fire model (PIF), the membrane voltage is proportional to the integral of the input current since the time of the previous spike. It has been shown that the firing rate within a noise free ensemble of PIF neurons responds instantaneously to dynamic changes in the input current, whereas in the presence of white noise, model neurons preferentially pass low frequency modulations of the mean current. Here, we prove that when the input variance is perturbed while holding the mean current constant, the PIF responds preferentially to high frequency modulations. Moreover, the linear filters for mean and variance modulations are complementary, adding exactly to one. Since changes in the rate of Poisson distributed inputs lead to proportional changes in the mean and variance, these results imply that an ensemble of PIF neurons transmits a perfect replica of the time-varying input rate for Poisson distributed input. A more general argument shows that this property holds for any signal leading to proportional changes in the mean and variance of the input current.

  14. A Comparative Study of Marketing Channel Multiagent Stackelberg Model Based on Perfect Rationality and Fairness Preference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaihong Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies channel consisting of a manufacturer and two retailers. As a basis for comparison, the first, multiagent Stackelberg model has been structured based on perfect rationality. Further, fairness preference theory will be embedded in marketing channel multiagent Stackelberg model, and the results show that if the retailers have a jealous fairness preference, the manufacturer will reduce the wholesale price, retailers will increase the effort level, product sales will be increased, and the total channel utility and manufacturers’ utility will be pareto improvement, but the pareto improvement of retailers’ utility is associated with the interval of jealousy fairness preference coefficient. If the retailers have a sympathetic fairness preference, the manufacturer increases wholesale price, retailers reduce the effort level, and the total channel utility, manufacturer’s utility, and retailers’ utility are less than that of the no fairness preference utility.

  15. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...... and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...

  16. Prediction of irradiation damage effects by multi-scale modelling: EURATOM 3 Framework integrated project perfect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massoud, J.P.; Bugat, St.; Marini, B.; Lidbury, D.; Van Dyck, St.; Debarberis, L.

    2008-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. In nuclear PWRs, materials undergo degradation due to severe irradiation conditions that may limit their operational life. Utilities operating these reactors must quantify the aging and the potential degradations of reactor pressure vessels and also of internal structures to ensure safe and reliable plant operation. The EURATOM 6. Framework Integrated Project PERFECT (Prediction of Irradiation Damage Effects in Reactor Components) addresses irradiation damage in RPV materials and components by multi-scale modelling. This state-of-the-art approach offers potential advantages over the conventional empirical methods used in current practice of nuclear plant lifetime management. Launched in January 2004, this 48-month project is focusing on two main components of nuclear power plants which are subject to irradiation damage: the ferritic steel reactor pressure vessel and the austenitic steel internals. This project is also an opportunity to integrate the fragmented research and experience that currently exists within Europe in the field of numerical simulation of radiation damage and creates the links with international organisations involved in similar projects throughout the world. Continuous progress in the physical understanding of the phenomena involved in irradiation damage and continuous progress in computer sciences make possible the development of multi-scale numerical tools able to simulate the effects of irradiation on materials microstructure. The consequences of irradiation on mechanical and corrosion properties of materials are also tentatively modelled using such multi-scale modelling. But it requires to develop different mechanistic models at different levels of physics and engineering and to extend the state of knowledge in several scientific fields. And the links between these different kinds of models are particularly delicate to deal with and need specific works. Practically the main objective of PERFECT is to build

  17. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  18. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    of information is obeyed such that no unknown assumptions and biases influence the solution to the inverse problem. This involves a definition of the probabilistically formulated inverse problem, a discussion about how prior models can be established based on statistical information from sample models...... of the probabilistic formulation of the inverse problem. This function is based on an uncertainty model that describes the uncertainties related to the observed data. In a similar way, a formulation of the prior probability distribution that takes into account uncertainties related to the sample model statistics...... similar to observation uncertainties. We refer to the effect of these approximations as modeling errors. Examples that show how the modeling error is estimated are provided. Moreover, it is shown how these effects can be taken into account in the formulation of the posterior probability distribution...

  19. Picture perfect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pless, Mette; Sørensen, Niels Ulrik

    ’Picture perfect’ – when perfection becomes the new normal This paper draws on perspectives from three different studies. One study, which focuses on youth life and lack of well-being (Sørensen et al 2011), one study on youth life on the margins of society (Katznelson et al 2015) and one study...

  20. A forward model for ground penetrating radar imaging of buried perfect electric conductors within the physical optics approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polat, Burak; Meincke, Peter

    2004-01-01

    A forward model for ground penetrating radar imaging of buried 3-D perfect electric conductors is addressed within the framework of diffraction tomography. The similarity of the present forward model derived within the physical optics approximation with that derived within the first Born...

  1. Application of the perfectly matched layer in 3-D marine controlled-source electromagnetic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Yuguo; Han, Bo; Liu, Zhan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, the complex frequency-shifted perfectly matched layer (CFS-PML) in stretching Cartesian coordinates is successfully applied to 3-D frequency-domain marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) field modelling. The Dirichlet boundary, which is usually used within the traditional framework of EM modelling algorithms, assumes that the electric or magnetic field values are zero at the boundaries. This requires the boundaries to be sufficiently far away from the area of interest. To mitigate the boundary artefacts, a large modelling area may be necessary even though cell sizes are allowed to grow toward the boundaries due to the diffusion of the electromagnetic wave propagation. Compared with the conventional Dirichlet boundary, the PML boundary is preferred as the modelling area of interest could be restricted to the target region and only a few absorbing layers surrounding can effectively depress the artificial boundary effect without losing the numerical accuracy. Furthermore, for joint inversion of seismic and marine CSEM data, if we use the PML for CSEM field simulation instead of the conventional Dirichlet, the modelling area for these two different geophysical data collected from the same survey area could be the same, which is convenient for joint inversion grid matching. We apply the CFS-PML boundary to 3-D marine CSEM modelling by using the staggered finite-difference discretization. Numerical test indicates that the modelling algorithm using the CFS-PML also shows good accuracy compared to the Dirichlet. Furthermore, the modelling algorithm using the CFS-PML shows advantages in computational time and memory saving than that using the Dirichlet boundary. For the 3-D example in this study, the memory saving using the PML is nearly 42 per cent and the time saving is around 48 per cent compared to using the Dirichlet.

  2. Using Interaction Scenarios to Model Information Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars; Bøgh Andersen, Peter

    The purpose of this paper is to define and discuss a set of interaction primitives that can be used to model the dynamics of socio-technical activity systems, including information systems, in a way that emphasizes structural aspects of the interaction that occurs in such systems. The primitives...... a number of case studies that indicate that interaction primitives can be useful modeling tools for supplementing conventional flow-oriented modeling of business processes....... are based on a unifying, conceptual definition of the disparate interaction types - a robust model of the types. The primitives can be combined and may thus represent mediated interaction. We present a set of visualizations that can be used to define multiple related interactions and we present and discuss...

  3. Model checking exact cost for attack scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming

    2017-01-01

    Attack trees constitute a powerful tool for modelling security threats. Many security analyses of attack trees can be seamlessly expressed as model checking of Markov Decision Processes obtained from the attack trees, thus reaping the benefits of a coherent framework and a mature tool support....... However, current model checking does not encompass the exact cost analysis of an attack, which is standard for attack trees. Our first contribution is the logic erPCTL with cost-related operators. The extended logic allows to analyse the probability of an event satisfying given cost bounds and to compute...... the exact cost of an event. Our second contribution is the model checking algorithm for erPCTL. Finally, we apply our framework to the analysis of attack trees....

  4. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  5. Modelling of the biorefinery scenarios - Bioscen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitkanen, J.-P. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)], email: juha-pekka.pitkanen@vtt.fi

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of the BioScen project was to develop quantitative modelling approaches for the future biomass based processes producing fuels and chemicals. The aim of the project was in developing methods to estimate the necessary material properties for phase and reaction equilibria, for the calculation of unit processes and their integration to biorefining production plant simulations. Additional focus was laid on model optimisation and product life cycle analysis. As the biorefining technologies possess an extensive range from thermal pyrolysis to biochemical processing at ambient temperatures, a most generic thermodynamically based approach was selected to enable usage of the methods to the wide variety of possible applications. The methods were then applied to a number of case studies including modelling of flash condensation of pyrolysis oil, hydrolysis of cellulosic biomass and its product recovery and the subsequent fermentation processes for bioethanol and biobutanol, for which also a comparative life cycle analysis was performed. Flowsheet process simulation was applied to a conceptual wood bark biorefinery. Metamodelling techniques were used for both model and parameter optimisation, including their sensitivity analysis.

  6. Lorentz invariant noncommutative algebra for cosmological models coupled to a perfect fluid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abreu, Everton M.C.; Marcial, Mateus V.; Mendes, Albert C.R.; Oliveira, Wilson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, MG (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Full text: In current theoretical physics there is a relevant number of theoretical investigations that lead to believe that at the first moments of our Universe, the geometry was not commutative and the dominating physics at that time was ruled by the laws of noncommutative (NC) geometry. Therefore, the idea is that the physics of the early moments can be constructed based on these concepts. The first published work using the idea of a NC spacetime were carried out by Snyder who believed that NC principles could make the quantum field theory infinities disappear. However, it did not occur and Snyder's ideas were put to sleep for a long time. The main modern motivations that rekindle the investigation about NC field theories came from string theory and quantum gravity. In the context of quantum mechanics for example, R. Banerjee discussed how NC structures appear in planar quantum mechanics providing a useful way for obtaining them. The analysis was based on the NC algebra used in planar quantum mechanics that was originated from 't Hooft's analysis on dissipation and quantization. In this work we carry out a NC algebra analysis of the Friedmann-Robert-Walker model, coupled to a perfect fluid and in the presence of a cosmological constant. The classical field equations are modified, by the introduction of a shift operator, in order to introduce noncommutativity in these models. (author)

  7. Lorentz invariant noncommutative algebra for cosmological models coupled to a perfect fluid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abreu, Everton M.C.; Marcial, Mateus V.; Mendes, Albert C.R.; Oliveira, Wilson

    2013-01-01

    Full text: In current theoretical physics there is a relevant number of theoretical investigations that lead to believe that at the first moments of our Universe, the geometry was not commutative and the dominating physics at that time was ruled by the laws of noncommutative (NC) geometry. Therefore, the idea is that the physics of the early moments can be constructed based on these concepts. The first published work using the idea of a NC spacetime were carried out by Snyder who believed that NC principles could make the quantum field theory infinities disappear. However, it did not occur and Snyder's ideas were put to sleep for a long time. The main modern motivations that rekindle the investigation about NC field theories came from string theory and quantum gravity. In the context of quantum mechanics for example, R. Banerjee discussed how NC structures appear in planar quantum mechanics providing a useful way for obtaining them. The analysis was based on the NC algebra used in planar quantum mechanics that was originated from 't Hooft's analysis on dissipation and quantization. In this work we carry out a NC algebra analysis of the Friedmann-Robert-Walker model, coupled to a perfect fluid and in the presence of a cosmological constant. The classical field equations are modified, by the introduction of a shift operator, in order to introduce noncommutativity in these models. (author)

  8. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  9. Bianchi Type-I Massive String Magnetized Barotropic Perfect Fluid Cosmological Model in the Bimetric Theory of Gravitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaikwad, N. P.; Borkar, M. S.; Charjan, S. S.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the Bianchi type-I massive string magnetized barotropic perfect fluid cosmological model in Rosen's bimetric theory of gravitation with and without a magnetic field by applying the techniques used by Latelier (1979, 1980) and Stachel (1983). To obtain a deterministic model of the universe, it is assumed that the universe is filled with barotropic perfect fluid distribution. The physical and geometrical significance of the model are discussed. By comparing our model with the model of Bali et al. (2007), it is realized that there are no big-bang and big-crunch singularities in our model and T = 0 is not the time of the big bang, whereas the model of Bali et al. starts with a big bang at T = 0. Further, our model is in agreement with Bali et al. (2007) as time increases in the presence, as well as in the absence, of a magnetic field. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  10. Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sébastien

    2017-11-01

    While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

  11. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  12. Adaptation of the perfect linear model for ion beam formation to the case of plasma sources with electron electrostatic containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coste, Ph.; Aubert, J.; Lejeune, C.

    1991-01-01

    The extensive development of ion beam technologies in the last years, in particular for thin film deposition and etching, poses the problem of predicting the behaviour of the ion beam from convenient models. One of the existing models, the 'perfect linear model', is easy to use and provides information about the geometrical parameters of the ion beam envelope. In this model, however, the plasma potential must be close to the plasma electrode potential. Now, ion sources with electrostatic containment of the ionizing electrons -very attractive because of their improved ionization efficiency - have a plasma potential higher than the plasma electrode potential. Thus, a space-charge sheath with a non-negligible thickness exists, which modifies the equilibrium conditions of the plasma meniscus and, therefore, the initial divergence of the ion beam. In this paper an adaptation of the perfect linear model for ion beam formation to the case of plasma sources with electron electrostatic containment is presented. (author)

  13. Bianchi Type-V model with a perfect fluid and Λ-term

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A self-consistent system of gravitational field with a binary mixture of perfect ... a form of quintessence, may explain the coincidence, adding a new motivation for .... hand, with the expansion of the universe, i.e., with the increase of V , the ...

  14. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  15. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

  16. Search for Higgs boson in beyond standard model scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The principal physics motivation of the LHC experiments is to search for the Higgs boson and to probe the physics of TeV energy scale. Potential of discovery for Higgs bosons in various scenarios beyond standard model have been estimated for both CMS and ATLAS experiments through detailed detector simulations.

  17. Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

    2014-01-01

    With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

  18. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  19. Possibilities of application of perfect solution model to calculation of equilibrium composition of complex carbonitrides and their solubility in steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gol'dshtejn, M.I.; Popov, V.V.; Cheremnykh, V.G.

    1980-01-01

    Using the Fe-Nb-V-C-N and Fe-Ti-V-C-N systems' low carbon steels, the earlier suggested model of perfect solid solutions has been experimentally researched. Also studied has been the feasibility to calculate the composition of carbonitrides in steels by the derived equations, that comprise, as parameters, products of respective compounds' solubility and coefficients of components interaction in iron-based solid solutions. A conclusion is drawn that perfect solutions models may be used adequately for complex carbonitrides like Nbsub(p)Vsub(1-p)Csub(q)Nsub(1-q) and Tisub(p)Vsub(1-p)Csub(q)Nsub(1-q) during the calculations of their equilibrium composition and solubility in steels

  20. Synchronization scenarios in the Winfree model of coupled oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Rafael; Montbrió, Ernest; Pazó, Diego

    2017-10-01

    Fifty years ago Arthur Winfree proposed a deeply influential mean-field model for the collective synchronization of large populations of phase oscillators. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the model for some special, analytically tractable cases. Adopting the thermodynamic limit, we derive an ordinary differential equation that exactly describes the temporal evolution of the macroscopic variables in the Ott-Antonsen invariant manifold. The low-dimensional model is then thoroughly investigated for a variety of pulse types and sinusoidal phase response curves (PRCs). Two structurally different synchronization scenarios are found, which are linked via the mutation of a Bogdanov-Takens point. From our results, we infer a general rule of thumb relating pulse shape and PRC offset with each scenario. Finally, we compare the exact synchronization threshold with the prediction of the averaging approximation given by the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model. At the leading order, the discrepancy appears to behave as an odd function of the PRC offset.

  1. Merits of a Scenario Approach in Dredge Plume Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Claus; Chu, Amy Ling Chu; Hjelmager Jensen, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    Dredge plume modelling is a key tool for quantification of potential impacts to inform the EIA process. There are, however, significant uncertainties associated with the modelling at the EIA stage when both dredging methodology and schedule are likely to be a guess at best as the dredging...... contractor would rarely have been appointed. Simulation of a few variations of an assumed full dredge period programme will generally not provide a good representation of the overall environmental risks associated with the programme. An alternative dredge plume modelling strategy that attempts to encapsulate...... uncertainties associated with preliminary dredging programmes by using a scenario-based modelling approach is presented. The approach establishes a set of representative and conservative scenarios for key factors controlling the spill and plume dispersion and simulates all combinations of e.g. dredge, climatic...

  2. Perfect plasticity with damage and healing at small strains, its modeling, analysis, and computer implementation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Roubíček, Tomáš; Valdman, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 76, č. 1 (2016), s. 314-340 ISSN 0036-1399 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S; GA ČR GA14-15264S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 ; RVO:61388998 Keywords : Prandtl-Reuss perfect plasticity * bounded-deformation space * incomplete damage Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.670, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/MTR/valdman-0458557.pdf

  3. Application of Convolution Perfectly Matched Layer in MRTD scattering model for non-spherical aerosol particles and its performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shuai; Gao, Taichang; Li, Hao; Yang, Bo; Jiang, Zidong; Liu, Lei; Chen, Ming

    2017-10-01

    The performance of absorbing boundary condition (ABC) is an important factor influencing the simulation accuracy of MRTD (Multi-Resolution Time-Domain) scattering model for non-spherical aerosol particles. To this end, the Convolution Perfectly Matched Layer (CPML), an excellent ABC in FDTD scheme, is generalized and applied to the MRTD scattering model developed by our team. In this model, the time domain is discretized by exponential differential scheme, and the discretization of space domain is implemented by Galerkin principle. To evaluate the performance of CPML, its simulation results are compared with those of BPML (Berenger's Perfectly Matched Layer) and ADE-PML (Perfectly Matched Layer with Auxiliary Differential Equation) for spherical and non-spherical particles, and their simulation errors are analyzed as well. The simulation results show that, for scattering phase matrices, the performance of CPML is better than that of BPML; the computational accuracy of CPML is comparable to that of ADE-PML on the whole, but at scattering angles where phase matrix elements fluctuate sharply, the performance of CPML is slightly better than that of ADE-PML. After orientation averaging process, the differences among the results of different ABCs are reduced to some extent. It also can be found that ABCs have a much weaker influence on integral scattering parameters (such as extinction and absorption efficiencies) than scattering phase matrices, this phenomenon can be explained by the error averaging process in the numerical volume integration.

  4. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  5. Dark matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac gauginos

    CERN Document Server

    Goodsell, Mark D.; Müller, Tobias; Porod, Werner; Staub, Florian

    2015-01-01

    We perform the first analysis of Dark Matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac Gauginos. The model under investigation is the Constrained Minimal Dirac Gaugino Supersymmetric Standard model (CMDGSSM) where the Majorana mass terms of gauginos vanish. However, $R$-symmetry is broken in the Higgs sector by an explicit and/or effective $B_\\mu$-term. This causes a mass splitting between Dirac states in the fermion sector and the neutralinos, which provide the dark matter candidate, become pseudo-Dirac states. We discuss two scenarios: the universal case with all scalar masses unified at the GUT scale, and the case with non-universal Higgs soft-terms. We identify different regions in the parameter space which fullfil all constraints from the dark matter abundance, the limits from SUSY and direct dark matter searches and the Higgs mass. Most of these points can be tested with the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments.

  6. Metamaterial Perfect Absorber Analyzed by a Meta-Cavity Model Consisting of Multilayer Metasurfaces (Postprint)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-05

    cross-wire around the resonance wavelength. This is caused by the structural asymmetry depending on the propagation direction of incident light. For...1.82 μm. The significant change of φ r( )21 is caused by eff , which changes from i64 72 7 08. + . to . + . i4 19 1 28 in the same wavelength range...et al. Circular Dichroism Metamirrors with Near-Perfect Extinction . ACS Photonics 3, 2096–2101 (2016). 16. Li, W. et al. Circularly polarized light

  7. Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose F. Monserrat

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

  8. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  9. Time reversal mirror and perfect inverse filter in a microscopic model for sound propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo, Hernan L.; Danieli, Ernesto P.; Pastawski, Horacio M.

    2007-01-01

    Time reversal of quantum dynamics can be achieved by a global change of the Hamiltonian sign (a hasty Loschmidt daemon), as in the Loschmidt Echo experiments in NMR, or by a local but persistent procedure (a stubborn daemon) as in the time reversal mirror (TRM) used in ultrasound acoustics. While the first is limited by chaos and disorder, the last procedure seems to benefit from it. As a first step to quantify such stability we develop a procedure, the perfect inverse filter (PIF), that accounts for memory effects, and we apply it to a system of coupled oscillators. In order to ensure a numerical many-body dynamics intrinsically reversible, we develop an algorithm, the pair partitioning, based on the Trotter strategy used for quantum dynamics. We analyze situations where the PIF gives substantial improvements over the TRM

  10. Evaluation of human thorax FE model in various impact scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jansová M.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the validation of the 50th percentile male model — a detailed FE model of the thoracic segment of the human body developed within project Development of a Finite Element Model of the Human Thorax and Upper Extremities (THOMO co-funded by the European Commission (7th Framework Programme. The model response was tested in three impact scenarios: frontal, lateral and oblique. The resulting impactor contact force vs. time and chest deflection vs. time responses were compared with experimental results. The strain profile of the 5th rib was checked with lateral and oblique strain profiles from post-mortem human subject (PMHS experiments. The influence of heart and lungs on the mechanical response of the model was assessed and the material data configuration, giving the most biofidelic thorax behaviour, was identified.

  11. Model-Checking an Alternating-time Temporal Logic with Knowledge, Imperfect Information, Perfect Recall and Communicating Coalitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin Dima

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a variant of ATL with distributed knowledge operators based on a synchronous and perfect recall semantics. The coalition modalities in this logic are based on partial observation of the full history, and incorporate a form of cooperation between members of the coalition in which agents issue their actions based on the distributed knowledge, for that coalition, of the system history. We show that model-checking is decidable for this logic. The technique utilizes two variants of games with imperfect information and partially observable objectives, as well as a subset construction for identifying states whose histories are indistinguishable to the considered coalition.

  12. Model checking coalitional games in shortage resource scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Della Monica

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Verification of multi-agents systems (MAS has been recently studied taking into account the need of expressing resource bounds. Several logics for specifying properties of MAS have been presented in quite a variety of scenarios with bounded resources. In this paper, we study a different formalism, called Priced Resource-Bounded Alternating-time Temporal Logic (PRBATL, whose main novelty consists in moving the notion of resources from a syntactic level (part of the formula to a semantic one (part of the model. This allows us to track the evolution of the resource availability along the computations and provides us with a formalisms capable to model a number of real-world scenarios. Two relevant aspects are the notion of global availability of the resources on the market, that are shared by the agents, and the notion of price of resources, depending on their availability. In a previous work of ours, an initial step towards this new formalism was introduced, along with an EXPTIME algorithm for the model checking problem. In this paper we better analyze the features of the proposed formalism, also in comparison with previous approaches. The main technical contribution is the proof of the EXPTIME-hardness of the the model checking problem for PRBATL, based on a reduction from the acceptance problem for Linearly-Bounded Alternating Turing Machines. In particular, since the problem has multiple parameters, we show two fixed-parameter reductions.

  13. Biosphere modelling for a HLW repository - scenario and parameter variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.

    1985-03-01

    In Switzerland high-level radioactive wastes have been considered for disposal in deep-lying crystalline formations. The individual doses to man resulting from radionuclides entering the biosphere via groundwater transport are calculated. The main recipient area modelled, which constitutes the base case, is a broad gravel terrace sited along the south bank of the river Rhine. An alternative recipient region, a small valley with a well, is also modelled. A number of parameter variations are performed in order to ascertain their impact on the doses. Finally two scenario changes are modelled somewhat simplistically, these consider different prevailing climates, namely tundra and a warmer climate than present. In the base case negligibly low doses to man in the long term, resulting from the existence of a HLW repository have been calculated. Cs-135 results in the largest dose (8.4E-7 mrem/y at 6.1E+6 y) while Np-237 gives the largest dose from the actinides (3.6E-8 mrem/y). The response of the model to parameter variations cannot be easily predicted due to non-linear coupling of many of the parameters. However, the calculated doses were negligibly low in all cases as were those resulting from the two scenario variations. (author)

  14. Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley B Bennett

    Full Text Available In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

  15. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  16. 'Perfectly disordered' medium as a model for the description of micro-inhomogeneous mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, V M; Markov, M G; Alvarez-Tostado, J M

    2004-01-01

    The correct description of the macroscopic (overall) physical properties of micro-inhomogeneous (composite) materials by micro-mechanics methods (the self-consistent schemes, for example) requires information about the microstructure and texture of such materials. Often, such information (of shapes inhomogeneities and peculiarities of their spatial distribution) is not available. In this paper, we suggest a method of calculation of the characteristics of micro-inhomogeneous materials that could be applied to a wide class of isotropic materials. This method assumes the absence of a closed order in the material microstructure (a 'perfectly disordered' (PD) medium). We used the PD approximation to predict the effective thermo- and poroelastic, electric and thermal properties of micro-inhomogeneous media. The expressions for the effective characteristics obtained by this method are always inside of the Hashin-Shtrikman universal bounds. For a two-phase material with fluid component, the effective bulk module satisfies Gassmann's relation for fluid-filled porous media and generalizes such a relation to inhomogeneous thermoelastic and poroelastic media. A comparison of the theoretical results with available experimental data shows a satisfactory coincidence even in the case of high contrast of the component properties. The simplicity of the numerical realization of the method makes it attractive for applications in the absence of detailed information about the material's microstructure

  17. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  18. Channel Measurement and Modeling for 5G Urban Microcellular Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Peter

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, multiple urban microcellular measurement campaigns have been carried out in Berlin, Germany, at 60 and 10 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL and the delay spread (DS. It reveals that the ground reflection has a dominant impact on the fading behavior. For line-of-sight conditions, the PL exponents are close to free space propagation at 60 GHz, but slightly smaller (1.62 for the street canyon at 10 GHz. The DS shows a clear dependence on the scenario (median values between 16 and 38 ns and a strong distance dependence for the open square and the wide street canyon. The dependence is less distinct for the narrow street canyon with residential buildings. This behavior is consistent with complementary ray tracing simulations, though the simplified model tends to overestimate the DS.

  19. The modelling of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok

    2014-01-01

    within a time frame of two hours and approx. 7% of the electricity demand can be moved within a time frame of 24 hours. The system benefit at the assessed amount of flexible demand is limited however. Results from the other analysis indicate that in order to have a significant impact on the energy system...... performance, more than a quarter of the classic electricity demand would need to be flexible within a month, which is highly unlikely to happen. For the investigation of the energy system model, EnergyPLAN, which is used for two scenario analyses, two questions are asked; “what is the value of future...... for the important but uncertain areas biomass and flexible demand are performed. Thirdly, modelling-related issues are investigated with a focus on the effect of future forecasting assumption and differences between a predefined priority order and order determined by given efficiencies and constraints...

  20. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

    2016-12-01

    Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  1. Team Modelling: Review of Experimental Scenarios and Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    les auteurs ont réuni et examiné des scénarios ayant servi dans le cadre d’études antérieures sur les équipes, ils ont développé d’importants...cognition, perception, sensation, motor action and knowledge, that embody a principled underlying theory or framework for human information...Processing) integrates Qinetiq’s (POP) model with DRDC’s IP/PCT (Perceptual Control Theory ) models. In particular, the POP/IP model includes the

  2. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  3. A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

    2017-12-01

    Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

  4. Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity survey pre-modeling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Neil; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Robinson, Judith L.; Slater, Lee D.; Halford, Keith J.; Binley, Andrew; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale D.

    2017-01-01

    Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet-based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.

  5. Benchmarking of computer codes and approaches for modeling exposure scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Rittmann, P.D.; Wood, M.I.; Cook, J.R.

    1994-08-01

    The US Department of Energy Headquarters established a performance assessment task team (PATT) to integrate the activities of DOE sites that are preparing performance assessments for the disposal of newly generated low-level waste. The PATT chartered a subteam with the task of comparing computer codes and exposure scenarios used for dose calculations in performance assessments. This report documents the efforts of the subteam. Computer codes considered in the comparison include GENII, PATHRAE-EPA, MICROSHIELD, and ISOSHLD. Calculations were also conducted using spreadsheets to provide a comparison at the most fundamental level. Calculations and modeling approaches are compared for unit radionuclide concentrations in water and soil for the ingestion, inhalation, and external dose pathways. Over 30 tables comparing inputs and results are provided

  6. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  7. An algebraic method to develop well-posed PML models Absorbing layers, perfectly matched layers, linearized Euler equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahmouni, Adib N.

    2004-01-01

    In 1994, Berenger [Journal of Computational Physics 114 (1994) 185] proposed a new layer method: perfectly matched layer, PML, for electromagnetism. This new method is based on the truncation of the computational domain by a layer which absorbs waves regardless of their frequency and angle of incidence. Unfortunately, the technique proposed by Berenger (loc. cit.) leads to a system which has lost the most important properties of the original one: strong hyperbolicity and symmetry. We present in this paper an algebraic technique leading to well-known PML model [IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation 44 (1996) 1630] for the linearized Euler equations, strongly well-posed, preserving the advantages of the initial method, and retaining symmetry. The technique proposed in this paper can be extended to various hyperbolic problems

  8. Main considerations for modelling a station blackout scenario with trace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Querol, Andrea; Turégano, Jara; Lorduy, María; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo

    2017-01-01

    In the nuclear safety field, the thermal hydraulic phenomena that take place during an accident in a nuclear power plant is of special importance. One of the most studied accidents is the Station BlackOut (SBO). The aim of the present work is the analysis of the PKL integral test facility nodalization using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE5 to reproduce a SBO accidental scenario. The PKL facility reproduces the main components of the primary and secondary systems of its reference nuclear power plant (Philippsburg II). The results obtained with different nodalization have been compared: 3D vessel vs 1D vessel, Steam Generator (SG) modelling using PIPE or TEE components and pressurizer modelling with PIPE or PRIZER components. Both vessel nodalization (1D vessel and 3D vessel) reproduce the physical phenomena of the experiment. However, there are significant discrepancies between them. The appropriate modelling of the SG is also relevant in the results. Regarding the other nodalization (PIPE or TEE components for SG and PIPE or PRIZER components for pressurizer), do not produce relevant differences in the results. (author)

  9. Main considerations for modelling a station blackout scenario with trace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Querol, Andrea; Turégano, Jara; Lorduy, María; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo, E-mail: anquevi@upv.es, E-mail: jaturna@upv.es, E-mail: maloral@upv.es, E-mail: sergalbe@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Instituto Universitario de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofísica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM), Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain)

    2017-07-01

    In the nuclear safety field, the thermal hydraulic phenomena that take place during an accident in a nuclear power plant is of special importance. One of the most studied accidents is the Station BlackOut (SBO). The aim of the present work is the analysis of the PKL integral test facility nodalization using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE5 to reproduce a SBO accidental scenario. The PKL facility reproduces the main components of the primary and secondary systems of its reference nuclear power plant (Philippsburg II). The results obtained with different nodalization have been compared: 3D vessel vs 1D vessel, Steam Generator (SG) modelling using PIPE or TEE components and pressurizer modelling with PIPE or PRIZER components. Both vessel nodalization (1D vessel and 3D vessel) reproduce the physical phenomena of the experiment. However, there are significant discrepancies between them. The appropriate modelling of the SG is also relevant in the results. Regarding the other nodalization (PIPE or TEE components for SG and PIPE or PRIZER components for pressurizer), do not produce relevant differences in the results. (author)

  10. Bianchi type-V cosmological models with perfect fluid and heat flow ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the cosmology with the power-law, the solutions correspond to a cos- mological model .... where ρ is the energy density, p is the thermodynamic pressure, uµ is the four- velocity of the fluid and ..... In the first category of models, the. Universe ...

  11. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  12. High fidelity chemistry and radiation modeling for oxy -- combustion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Sater, Hassan A.

    To account for the thermal and chemical effects associated with the high CO2 concentrations in an oxy-combustion atmosphere, several refined gas-phase chemistry and radiative property models have been formulated for laminar to highly turbulent systems. This thesis examines the accuracies of several chemistry and radiative property models employed in computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of laminar to transitional oxy-methane diffusion flames by comparing their predictions against experimental data. Literature review about chemistry and radiation modeling in oxy-combustion atmospheres considered turbulent systems where the predictions are impacted by the interplay and accuracies of the turbulence, radiation and chemistry models. Thus, by considering a laminar system we minimize the impact of turbulence and the uncertainties associated with turbulence models. In the first section of this thesis, an assessment and validation of gray and non-gray formulations of a recently proposed weighted-sum-of-gray gas model in oxy-combustion scenarios was undertaken. Predictions of gas, wall temperatures and flame lengths were in good agreement with experimental measurements. The temperature and flame length predictions were not sensitive to the radiative property model employed. However, there were significant variations between the gray and non-gray model radiant fraction predictions with the variations in general increasing with decrease in Reynolds numbers possibly attributed to shorter flames and steeper temperature gradients. The results of this section confirm that non-gray model predictions of radiative heat fluxes are more accurate than gray model predictions especially at steeper temperature gradients. In the second section, the accuracies of three gas-phase chemistry models were assessed by comparing their predictions against experimental measurements of temperature, species concentrations and flame lengths. The chemistry was modeled employing the Eddy

  13. From many body wee partons dynamics to perfect fluid: a standard model for heavy ion collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venugopalan, R.

    2010-07-22

    We discuss a standard model of heavy ion collisions that has emerged both from experimental results of the RHIC program and associated theoretical developments. We comment briefly on the impact of early results of the LHC program on this picture. We consider how this standard model of heavy ion collisions could be solidified or falsified in future experiments at RHIC, the LHC and a future Electro-Ion Collider.

  14. Frequency domain finite-element and spectral-element acoustic wave modeling using absorbing boundaries and perfectly matched layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi Dalkhani, Amin; Javaherian, Abdolrahim; Mahdavi Basir, Hadi

    2018-04-01

    Wave propagation modeling as a vital tool in seismology can be done via several different numerical methods among them are finite-difference, finite-element, and spectral-element methods (FDM, FEM and SEM). Some advanced applications in seismic exploration benefit the frequency domain modeling. Regarding flexibility in complex geological models and dealing with the free surface boundary condition, we studied the frequency domain acoustic wave equation using FEM and SEM. The results demonstrated that the frequency domain FEM and SEM have a good accuracy and numerical efficiency with the second order interpolation polynomials. Furthermore, we developed the second order Clayton and Engquist absorbing boundary condition (CE-ABC2) and compared it with the perfectly matched layer (PML) for the frequency domain FEM and SEM. In spite of PML method, CE-ABC2 does not add any additional computational cost to the modeling except assembling boundary matrices. As a result, considering CE-ABC2 is more efficient than PML for the frequency domain acoustic wave propagation modeling especially when computational cost is high and high-level absorbing performance is unnecessary.

  15. Perfect observables for the hierarchical non-linear O(N)-invariant σ-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieczerkowski, C.; Xylander, Y.

    1995-05-01

    We compute moving eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the linear renormalization group transformation for observables along the renormalized trajectory of the hierarchical non-linear O(N)-invariant σ-model by means of perturbation theory in the running coupling constant. Moving eigenvectors are defined as solutions to a Callan-Symanzik type equation. (orig.)

  16. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  17. Frustration tuning and perfect phase synchronization in the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brede, Markus; Kalloniatis, Alexander C

    2016-06-01

    We present an analysis of conditions under which the dynamics of a frustrated Kuramoto-or Kuramoto-Sakaguchi-model on sparse networks can be tuned to enhance synchronization. Using numerical optimization techniques, linear stability, and dimensional reduction analysis, a simple tuning scheme for setting node-specific frustration parameters as functions of native frequencies and degrees is developed. Finite-size scaling analysis reveals that even partial application of the tuning rule can significantly reduce the critical coupling for the onset of synchronization. In the second part of the paper, a codynamics is proposed, which allows a dynamic tuning of frustration parameters simultaneously with the ordinary Kuramoto dynamics. We find that such codynamics enhance synchronization when operating on slow time scales, and impede synchronization when operating on fast time scales relative to the Kuramoto dynamics.

  18. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  19. The complete electroweak effect and perfection of Bhabha scattering in the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Chengye; Fang Zhenyun; Chen Xuewen

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we make a close and systematic research on Bhabha scattering in the electroweak unification of the standard model (SM). In concrete research methods we make the quantum field theory of perturbation theory in a new computing mode -renormalization chain propagation theory, and do an application to the Bhabha scattering calculation research. In SM, in order to consider complete electrical weak effect about Bhabha scattering internal process, we seek out the complex renormalization mixing-loop chain propagators constituted by photon y and intermediate boson Z 0 , and then calculate the Bhabha scattering cross section about this kind of propagator by transfer complete electrical weak reaction. Within the observed errors, the calculation results are in good agreement with the experimental values. Also, the main research results not only confirm the action of the particle reaction accuracy by SM theory for describing the electrical weak effect; but also suggests the SM theory may be a per ect theory and that the theory prophecy's Higgs 'mysterious particles' (which is of particular concern in the field of academic) have the large possibility to be eventually found. (authors)

  20. Perfect and imperfect states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikitović Aleksandar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Early Greek ethics embodied in Cretan and Spartan mores, served as a model for Plato`s political theory. Plato theorized the contents of early Greek ethics, aspiring to justify and revitalize the fundamental principles of a traditional view of the world. However, according to Plato`s new insight, deed is further from the truth than a thought i.e. theory. The dorian model had to renounce its position to the perfect prototype of a righteous state, which is a result of the inner logic of philosophical theorizing in early Greek ethics. Prototype and model of philosophical reflection, in comparison to philosophical theory, becomes minor and deficient. Philosophical theorizing of early Greek ethics philosophically formatted Greek heritage, initiating substantial changes to the content of traditional ethics. Replacement of the myth with ontology, as a new foundation of politics, transformed early Greek ethics in various relevant ways. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179049

  1. Bianchi - I, II, VIII, IX and Kantowski-Sachs-like cosmological models with perfect fluid and electromagnetic fields with conductivity current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portugal, R.

    1984-01-01

    Three processes of solutions of the Einstein-Maxwell equations for Bianchi - I, II, VIII, IX and Kantowski-Sachs-like cosmological models with perfect fluid in magnetohydrolodynamical regimem are presented. Diagonal Bianchi-like models are considered with two anisotropy direction in the maximum. Solutions are found for Bianchi-II and IX-like models with energy conditions to be analyzed. Solutions are found for Bianchi-IX and Kantowski-Sachs-Like models with positive electric conductivity and satisfering to the predominant energy conditions. Solutions are formed for isotropic Kantowski-Sachs-Like models satisfering to the equation of state p=λρ, 0 0, admiting, in addition to the perfect fluid, electric field only. It is shown that a class of Bertotti-Robinson-like solutions is unstable by perturbations and it is carried in Kantowski-Sachs-like models with non-null electric conductivity. (L.C.) [pt

  2. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  3. Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

    2018-05-08

    Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

  4. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  5. Quantum perfect correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozawa, Masanao

    2006-01-01

    The notion of perfect correlations between arbitrary observables, or more generally arbitrary POVMs, is introduced in the standard formulation of quantum mechanics, and characterized by several well-established statistical conditions. The transitivity of perfect correlations is proved to generally hold, and applied to a simple articulation for the failure of Hardy's nonlocality proof for maximally entangled states. The notion of perfect correlations between observables and POVMs is used for defining the notion of a precise measurement of a given observable in a given state. A longstanding misconception on the correlation made by the measuring interaction is resolved in the light of the new theory of quantum perfect correlations

  6. TERNIRBU: Description of model and individual evaluation of model performance for scenario S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanyar, B.; Fueloep, N.

    1996-01-01

    The compartmental model used is realized as a procedure of the general purpose code TAMDYN for simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty calculations of dynamic models. More details of the model structure and parameters are given in the description of the VAMP MP Scenario CB. The difference between the climate in Finland and Central Bohemia was taken into consideration by shifting the seasonality function with 12 days' according to the weekly average temperature. The lake system and the contamination of fishes was simulated by the model SIRATEC used and validated in the BIOMOVS Scenario A5. The model was extended to two fish-compartments for roach and pike ones as a catanary system. For simulations the code TAMDYN was used. The doses were estimated from the time integrated concentrations of the proper components multiplied by the dose conversion factor. 4 figs

  7. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  8. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  9. Modelling controlled VDE's and ramp-down scenarios in ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodestro, L. L.; Kolesnikov, R. A.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Humphreys, D. A.; Walker, M. L.

    2011-10-01

    Following the design reviews of recent years, the ITER poloidal-field coil-set design, including in-vessel coils (VS3), and the divertor configuration have settled down. The divertor and its material composition (the latter has not been finalized) affect the development of fiducial equilibria and scenarios together with the coils through constraints on strike-point locations and limits on the PF and control systems. Previously we have reported on our studies simulating controlled vertical events in ITER with the JCT 2001 controller to which we added a PID VS3 circuit. In this paper we report and compare controlled VDE results using an optimized integrated VS and shape controller in the updated configuration. We also present our recent simulations of alternate ramp-down scenarios, looking at the effects of ramp-down time and shape strategies, using these controllers. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  10. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  11. Weak coupling polaron and Landau-Zener scenario: Qubits modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jipdi, M. N.; Tchoffo, M.; Fokou, I. F.; Fai, L. C.; Ateuafack, M. E.

    2017-06-01

    The paper presents a weak coupling polaron in a spherical dot with magnetic impurities and investigates conditions for which the system mimics a qubit. Particularly, the work focuses on the Landau-Zener (LZ) scenario undergone by the polaron and derives transition coefficients (transition probabilities) as well as selection rules for polaron's transitions. It is proven that, the magnetic impurities drive the polaron to a two-state superposition leading to a qubit structure. We also showed that the symmetry deficiency induced by the magnetic impurities (strong magnetic field) yields to the banishment of transition coefficients with non-stacking states. However, the transition coefficients revived for large confinement frequency (or weak magnetic field) with the orbital quantum numbers escorting transitions. The polaron is then shown to map a qubit independently of the number of relevant states with the transition coefficients lifted as LZ probabilities and given as a function of the electron-phonon coupling constant (Fröhlich constant).

  12. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model performance evaluation consists of metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors.

  13. Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

    2013-01-01

    By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

  14. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  15. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  16. Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang

    2017-08-01

    User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

  17. Energy scenarios and greenhouse effect gases emissions model for Mexico; Modelo de escenarios energeticos y de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum Pardo, Claudia; Rodriguez Viqueira, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents the bases for the Model of Energy and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (MEEEM) developed by the Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico`s Engineering Institute). This model was built with the objective of analyzing the different technological options for the mitigation of the greenhouse gases effect on Mexico. The MEEEM is a model for the end uses that simulate in a simple way the energy demand, transformation and supply and calculates the differential leveled costs among a basic scenario and several mitigation scenarios of the greenhouse emissions. The article also presents some of the results in evaluating three technologies of renewable energy sources. Although the model is perfectible, its development shows its usefulness in this type of models in the decision taking for the energy and environmental planning of the country. [Espanol] Este articulo presenta las bases del Modelo de Escenarios Energeticos y de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero para Mexico (MEEEM), desarrollado por el Instituto de Ingenieria de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). Este modelo fue construido con el objetivo de analizar las diversas opciones tecnologicas de mitigacion de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico. El MEEEM es un modelo de usos finales que simula de una manera sencilla, la demanda, transformacion y oferta de la energia y calcula la diferencia de costos nivelados entre un escenario base y diversos escenarios de mitigacion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El articulo presenta tambien algunos resultados obtenidos al evaluar tres tecnologias de fuentes renovables de energia. Aun cuando el modelo es perfectible, su desarrollo demuestra la utilidad de este tipo de modelos en la toma de decisiones para planeacion energetica y ambiental del pais.

  18. Energy scenarios and greenhouse effect gases emissions model for Mexico; Modelo de escenarios energeticos y de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum Pardo, Claudia; Rodriguez Viqueira, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

    1999-12-31

    This paper presents the bases for the Model of Energy and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (MEEEM) developed by the Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico`s Engineering Institute). This model was built with the objective of analyzing the different technological options for the mitigation of the greenhouse gases effect on Mexico. The MEEEM is a model for the end uses that simulate in a simple way the energy demand, transformation and supply and calculates the differential leveled costs among a basic scenario and several mitigation scenarios of the greenhouse emissions. The article also presents some of the results in evaluating three technologies of renewable energy sources. Although the model is perfectible, its development shows its usefulness in this type of models in the decision taking for the energy and environmental planning of the country. [Espanol] Este articulo presenta las bases del Modelo de Escenarios Energeticos y de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero para Mexico (MEEEM), desarrollado por el Instituto de Ingenieria de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). Este modelo fue construido con el objetivo de analizar las diversas opciones tecnologicas de mitigacion de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico. El MEEEM es un modelo de usos finales que simula de una manera sencilla, la demanda, transformacion y oferta de la energia y calcula la diferencia de costos nivelados entre un escenario base y diversos escenarios de mitigacion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El articulo presenta tambien algunos resultados obtenidos al evaluar tres tecnologias de fuentes renovables de energia. Aun cuando el modelo es perfectible, su desarrollo demuestra la utilidad de este tipo de modelos en la toma de decisiones para planeacion energetica y ambiental del pais.

  19. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  20. The quest for the perfect model: Pre World War 1. Military land use modeling of the Greater Copenhagen area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Brandt, Jesper; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

    the rotational system. At first the survey campaign seems to be going very well, but relative quickly did the military run into problems. The rapid urbanization of the landscape north of Copenhagen meant, that farming did not take place and at the island of Amager southwest of Copenhagen the farmers didn’t use......Anthropogenic land use practices are the single most important factor in the changing European landscapes. Respectively much attention has been devoted within Landscape Ecology to analyze changing patterns of land use and develop research strategies to understand the processes behind these changes...... and to inform policy makers. Models are used as an important tool in this research partly due to the revolution in information technologies during the last 30 years, which has made modeling more widespread in the research community. However modeling human decision making in form of land use practices...

  1. Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B. van; Schers, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    Promoting access to modern energy forms in developing countries to replace traditional fuels is high on the political agenda. This paper describes the development and application of a global model for rural electrification. The model is used to assess future trends in electrification, and the

  2. Technology versus demand regulation - strategic modelling of transport, land use and energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfaffenbichler, Paul C.; Shepherd, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future taking into account the effects on the environment as well as economic and social viability. Two energy supply scenarios, one with and one without scarcity of oil supply, form the basis of STEPs. Furthermore two different policies are suggested to tackle the problem of scarcity of oil: a technology driven strategy and a demand regulation based strategy. This paper presents the application of these scenarios and strategies to the strategic Systems Dynamics model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) covering the metropolitan area of Edinburgh. Scenario indicators like car ownership, fleet composition and fuel resource costs were provided by the European model ASTRA and the world energy market model POLES. The first part of the paper summarises the scenarios and strategies in detail. The second part describes briefly some basics of Systems Dynamics as well as the main mechanisms underlying the model MARS. Finally the results of the scenario simulations are presented. The main outcome is that a demand regulation policy is more effective in reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy resources than a technology driven policy

  3. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  4. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger defined...

  5. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger...

  6. SMART-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmintier, Bryan: Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2017-01-26

    This presentation provides a Smart-DS project overview and status update for the ARPA-e GRID DATA program meeting 2017, including distribution systems, models, and scenarios, as well as opportunities for GRID DATA collaborations.

  7. Multi-scenario modelling of uncertainty in stochastic chemical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. David; Ricardez-Sandoval, Luis A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis has not been well studied at the molecular scale, despite extensive knowledge of uncertainty in macroscale systems. The ability to predict the effect of uncertainty allows for robust control of small scale systems such as nanoreactors, surface reactions, and gene toggle switches. However, it is difficult to model uncertainty in such chemical systems as they are stochastic in nature, and require a large computational cost. To address this issue, a new model of uncertainty propagation in stochastic chemical systems, based on the Chemical Master Equation, is proposed in the present study. The uncertain solution is approximated by a composite state comprised of the averaged effect of samples from the uncertain parameter distributions. This model is then used to study the effect of uncertainty on an isomerization system and a two gene regulation network called a repressilator. The results of this model show that uncertainty in stochastic systems is dependent on both the uncertain distribution, and the system under investigation. -- Highlights: •A method to model uncertainty on stochastic systems was developed. •The method is based on the Chemical Master Equation. •Uncertainty in an isomerization reaction and a gene regulation network was modelled. •Effects were significant and dependent on the uncertain input and reaction system. •The model was computationally more efficient than Kinetic Monte Carlo

  8. Perfect-fluid models admitting a non-Abelian and maximal two-parameter group of isometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Bergh, N.

    1988-01-01

    A proof is given that, when a spacetime admits an invariant timelike congruence orthogonal to the orbits of a non-Abelian two-parameter group of isometries, the given congruence is vorticity-free provided the group is maximal. The result is used to derive a canonical coordinate form for perfect-fluid solutions satisfying the above condition. It is also shown that such a group of isometries cannot be orthogonally transitive and a brief discussion is given of the self-similar case. (author)

  9. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  10. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

  11. Assessment and modeling of inductive and non-inductive scenarios for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, D.; Vayakis, G.; Moreau, D.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents recent developments in modeling and simulations of ITER performances and scenarios. The first part presents an improved modeling of coupled divertor/main plasma operation including the simulation of the measurements involved in the control loop. The second part explores the fusion performances predicted under non-inductive operation with internal transport barrier. The final part covers a detailed scenario for non-inductive operation using a reverse shear configuration with lower hybrid and fast wave current drive. (author)

  12. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  13. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

    2013-07-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  14. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

    2013-01-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  15. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  16. Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

    2015-01-01

    An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

  17. Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H.J.; Dubus, I.G.; Nolan, B.T.; Hollis, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    A climatic classification for Europe suitable for pesticide fate modelling was constructed using a 3-stage process involving the identification of key climatic variables, the extraction of the dominant modes of spatial variability in those variables and the use of k-means clustering to identify regions with similar climates. The procedure identified 16 coherent zones that reflect the variability of climate across Europe whilst maintaining a manageable number of zones for subsequent modelling studies. An analysis of basic climatic parameters for each zone demonstrates the success of the scheme in identifying distinct climatic regions. Objective criteria were used to identify one representative 26-year daily meteorological series from a European dataset for each zone. The representativeness of each series was then verified against the zonal classifications. These new FOOTPRINT climate zones provide a state-of-the-art objective classification of European climate complete with representative daily data that are suitable for use in pesticide fate modelling. - The FOOTPRINT climatic zones provide an objective climatic classification and daily climate series that may be used for the modelling of pesticide fate across Europe

  18. Pesticide Leaching Models in a Brazilian Agricultural Field Scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scorza, R.P.; Oliveira Rigitano, de R.L.; Boesten, J.J.T.I.

    2011-01-01

    The use of Pesticide Leaching Models (PLM) for risk assessment may be an efficient and attractive way of assessing solutions to some agricultural and environmental problems. Many countries of the European Union and the USA have been using PLM for risk assessment already for a few decades. This

  19. Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S D Maharaj presented a talk entitled 'Some Einstein–Maxwell models with spherical sym- ... ber of spatial dimensions in the universe may be a variable and considered a ... the probability density of the de Sitter minisuperspace in 3-space as ...

  20. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  1. Modeling intelligent agent beliefs in a card game scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gołuński, Marcel; Tomanek, Roman; WÄ siewicz, Piotr

    In this paper we explore the problem of intelligent agent beliefs. We model agent beliefs using multimodal logics of belief, KD45(m) system implemented as a directed graph depicting Kripke semantics, precisely. We present a card game engine application which allows multiple agents to connect to a given game session and play the card game. As an example simplified version of popular Saboteur card game is used. Implementation was done in Java language using following libraries and applications: Apache Mina, LWJGL.

  2. Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

    2018-01-01

    According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

  3. CLRP: Individual evaluation of model performance for scenario S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krajewski, P.

    1996-01-01

    The model CLRP was created in 1989 as a part of research project ''Long-Lived Post-Chernobyl Radioactivity and Radiation Protection Criteria for Risk Reduction'' performed in cooperation with US Environmental Protection Agency. The aim of this project was to examine the fate of long-lived radionuclides in the terrestrial ecosystem. Concentrations of Cs-137 and Cs-134 in the particular components of terrestrial ecosystem e.g. soil, vegetation, animal tissues and animal products are calculated as a function of time following deposition from the atmosphere. Based on this data the whole body contents of radionuclide as a function of time is calculated and dose to a specific organ for the radionuclide may be estimated as an integral of the resultant dose rate over a sufficient period. In addition, the model allows estimation of inhalation dose from time integrated air concentration and external dose from total deposition using simple conversion factors. The program is designed to allow the simulation of many different radiological situations (chronic or acute releases) and dose affecting countermeasures. Figs, tabs

  4. Modeling RIA scenarios with the FRAPTRAN and SCANAIR codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagrado Garcia, I. C.; Vallejo, I.; Herranz, L. E.

    2013-01-01

    The need of defining new RIA safety criteria has pointed out the importance of performing a rigorous assessment of the transient codes capabilities. The present work is a comparative exercise devoted to identify the origin of the key deviations found between the predictions of FRAPTRAN-1.4 and SCANAIR-7.1. To do so, the calculations submitted by CIEMAT to the OECD/NEA RIA benchmark have been exploited. This work shows that deviations in clad temperatures mainly come from the treatment of the oxide layer. The systematically higher deformations calculated by FRAPTRAN-1.4 in early failed tests are caused by the different gap closure estimation. Besides, the dissimilarities observed in the FGR predictions are inherent to the different modeling strategies adopted in each code.

  5. Modeling RIA scenarios with the FRAPTRAN and SCANAIR codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sagrado Garcia, I. C.; Vallejo, I.; Herranz, L. E.

    2013-07-01

    The need of defining new RIA safety criteria has pointed out the importance of performing a rigorous assessment of the transient codes capabilities. The present work is a comparative exercise devoted to identify the origin of the key deviations found between the predictions of FRAPTRAN-1.4 and SCANAIR-7.1. To do so, the calculations submitted by CIEMAT to the OECD/NEA RIA benchmark have been exploited. This work shows that deviations in clad temperatures mainly come from the treatment of the oxide layer. The systematically higher deformations calculated by FRAPTRAN-1.4 in early failed tests are caused by the different gap closure estimation. Besides, the dissimilarities observed in the FGR predictions are inherent to the different modeling strategies adopted in each code.

  6. Propagation Path Loss Models for 5G Urban Micro- and Macro-Cellular Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Rappaport, Theodore S.; Rangan, Sundeep

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents and compares two candidate large-scale propagation path loss models, the alpha-beta-gamma (ABG) model and the close-in (CI) free space reference distance model, for the design of fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban micro- and macro-cellular scenarios....

  7. A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reidsma, P.; Metzger, M.J.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Leemans, R.

    2013-01-01

    Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit

  8. A CVAR scenario for a standard monetary model using theory-consistent expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularities capturing basic assumptions of the theoretical model. Using this concept, the paper considers a standard model for exchange rate determination and shows that all assumptions about the model's shock structure and steady...

  9. Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Léo eBenichou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  10. Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  11. Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

    2014-01-13

    Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  12. Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoaib Ahmed

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

  13. Perfect Liberty or Natural Liberty?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Stefan Gaarsmand

    2012-01-01

    The article investigates the concept of natural order as it is used by François Quesnay and Adam Smith in their respective economic writings. While Smith used the concept only after having visited Quesnay and the Physiocrats in France in the 1760s, in The Wealth of Nations he sought to negotiate...... the meaning of what was “natural” about economic life. The Physiocrats believed it possible to identify a model or a perfect regime of natural order – an order that they in fact thought to exist and function in China due to a rigorous system of economic laws. Smith sided with contemporary critics...... of this metaphysical vision of economic perfection (and of Chinese governance), but he suggested that the economic mechanisms of the physiocratic theories would remain intact even with a minimum of control by state laws. However, Smith’s balancing act on these questions remained disputed even by his Scottish...

  14. Everybody's Different Nobody's Perfect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... traten ni qué edad tengan — eso se llama “DISCAPACIDAD.” Some kids have a disability because their muscles ... have one? ¿Conoces a alguien que tenga una discapacidad? ¿Tienes una tú? Everybody’s different, nobody’s perfect. So ...

  15. California's Perfect Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, David

    2010-01-01

    The United States today faces an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nowhere is it sharper than in the nation's schools. Last year, California saw a perfect storm of protest in virtually every part of its education system. K-12 teachers built coalitions with parents and students to fight for their jobs and their…

  16. The Perfect Text.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Ruth

    1998-01-01

    A chemistry teacher describes the elements of the ideal chemistry textbook. The perfect text is focused and helps students draw a coherent whole out of the myriad fragments of information and interpretation. The text would show chemistry as the central science necessary for understanding other sciences and would also root chemistry firmly in the…

  17. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  18. The perfect family: decision making in biparental care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akçay, Erol; Roughgarden, Joan

    2009-10-13

    Previous theoretical work on parental decisions in biparental care has emphasized the role of the conflict between evolutionary interests of parents in these decisions. A prominent prediction from this work is that parents should compensate for decreases in each other's effort, but only partially so. However, experimental tests that manipulate parents and measure their responses fail to confirm this prediction. At the same time, the process of parental decision making has remained unexplored theoretically. We develop a model to address the discrepancy between experiments and the theoretical prediction, and explore how assuming different decision making processes changes the prediction from the theory. We assume that parents make decisions in behavioral time. They have a fixed time budget, and allocate it between two parental tasks: provisioning the offspring and defending the nest. The proximate determinant of the allocation decisions are parents' behavioral objectives. We assume both parents aim to maximize the offspring production from the nest. Experimental manipulations change the shape of the nest production function. We consider two different scenarios for how parents make decisions: one where parents communicate with each other and act together (the perfect family), and one where they do not communicate, and act independently (the almost perfect family). The perfect family model is able to generate all the types of responses seen in experimental studies. The kind of response predicted depends on the nest production function, i.e. how parents' allocations affect offspring production, and the type of experimental manipulation. In particular, we find that complementarity of parents' allocations promotes matching responses. In contrast, the relative responses do not depend on the type of manipulation in the almost perfect family model. These results highlight the importance of the interaction between nest production function and how parents make decisions

  19. The perfect family: decision making in biparental care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erol Akçay

    Full Text Available Previous theoretical work on parental decisions in biparental care has emphasized the role of the conflict between evolutionary interests of parents in these decisions. A prominent prediction from this work is that parents should compensate for decreases in each other's effort, but only partially so. However, experimental tests that manipulate parents and measure their responses fail to confirm this prediction. At the same time, the process of parental decision making has remained unexplored theoretically. We develop a model to address the discrepancy between experiments and the theoretical prediction, and explore how assuming different decision making processes changes the prediction from the theory.We assume that parents make decisions in behavioral time. They have a fixed time budget, and allocate it between two parental tasks: provisioning the offspring and defending the nest. The proximate determinant of the allocation decisions are parents' behavioral objectives. We assume both parents aim to maximize the offspring production from the nest. Experimental manipulations change the shape of the nest production function. We consider two different scenarios for how parents make decisions: one where parents communicate with each other and act together (the perfect family, and one where they do not communicate, and act independently (the almost perfect family.The perfect family model is able to generate all the types of responses seen in experimental studies. The kind of response predicted depends on the nest production function, i.e. how parents' allocations affect offspring production, and the type of experimental manipulation. In particular, we find that complementarity of parents' allocations promotes matching responses. In contrast, the relative responses do not depend on the type of manipulation in the almost perfect family model. These results highlight the importance of the interaction between nest production function and how parents make

  20. Modeling the Greek energy system: Scenarios of clean energy use and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roinioti, Argiro; Koroneos, Christopher; Wangensteen, Ivar

    2012-01-01

    The Greek energy system is one of the most carbon intensive energy systems in Europe. Hydrocarbons and solid fuels (lignite) cover over 80% of the final energy demand. The main objective of this work is to build energy scenarios for the future – with a focus on the electricity production system – and explore how these scenarios are reflected in economic, environmental terms and in terms of energy efficiency. The main tool which is used in the scenario analysis is LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System). The scenarios are essentially the result of developing “storylines” driven by the uncertainties which cannot be controlled by the analysts or decision makers, and technical and non-technical options the analyst or decision maker may choose from. A set of uncertainties is considered as a possible future or storyline, and one or more options can be selected as a possible strategy. The combination of a storyline and a specific strategy gives a scenario. The main uncertainties for the Greek energy system are identified and various technical options are explored. Rather than using a model which leads to optimum strategies from a set of alternatives, the model in use will apply different strategies. - Highlights: ► A demand-driven approach was used to build energy scenarios for the Greek interconnected system. ► Each Scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy. ► High RES penetration will decrease CO 2 emissions but it will also increase capital cost. ► Carbon intensity is reduced in all the scenarios.

  1. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Geary

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

  2. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  3. Normal and Abnormal Scenario Modeling with GoldSim for Radioactive Waste Disposal System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jeong, Jong Tae

    2010-08-01

    A modeling study and development of a total system performance assessment (TSPA) template program, by which an assessment of safety and performance for the radioactive waste repository with normal and/or abnormal nuclide release cases could be assessed has been carried out by utilizing a commercial development tool program, GoldSim. Scenarios associated with the various FEPs and involved in the performance of the proposed repository in view of nuclide transport and transfer both in the geosphere and biosphere has been also carried out. Selected normal and abnormal scenarios that could alter groundwater flow scheme and then nuclide transport are modeled with the template program. To this end in-depth system models for the normal and abnormal well and earthquake scenarios that are conceptually and rather practically described and then ready for implementing into a GoldSim TSPA template program are introduced with conceptual schemes for each repository system. Illustrative evaluations with data currently available are also shown

  4. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  5. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

  6. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

  7. From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

    One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

  8. Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

    2017-01-01

    Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform...

  9. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  10. Running scenarios using the Waste Tank Safety and Operations Hanford Site model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stahlman, E.J.

    1995-11-01

    Management of the Waste Tank Safety and Operations (WTS ampersand O) at Hanford is a large and complex task encompassing 177 tanks and having a budget of over $500 million per year. To assist managers in this task, a model based on system dynamics was developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model simulates the WTS ampersand O at the Hanford Tank Farms by modeling the planning, control, and flow of work conducted by Managers, Engineers, and Crafts. The model is described in Policy Analysis of Hanford Tank Farm Operations with System Dynamics Approach (Kwak 1995b) and Management Simulator for Hanford Tank Farm Operations (Kwak 1995a). This document provides guidance for users of the model in developing, running, and analyzing results of management scenarios. The reader is assumed to have an understanding of the model and its operation. Important parameters and variables in the model are described, and two scenarios are formulated as examples

  11. Documentation and evaluation of model validation data used in scenario S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rantavaara, A.; Arvela, H.; Suomela, M.

    1996-01-01

    Most radioactive fallout received in Finland after the Chernobyl nuclear accident originated in the first major release and spread over the test region between April 27 and 29, 1986. Most radioactive material was deposited with heavy showers which caused an uneven areal distribution. Deposition continued with varying intensity until May 12. At the end of April the growing season had not yet begun in Finland. Estimation of the mean deposition density was one of the modelling tasks. To avoid a biased starting point for foodchain assessments due to modellers' own deposition estimates, the mean deposition density of 137 Cs in each subregion used in the scenario was given as input information. The model validation test was started as a blind test. All regional information in the scenario description was coded, and the first maps of subregions were schematic to hide the actual test area. The blind test idea was gradually cancelled in the course of the exercise. The geographical region S was revealed after deposition estimates were made. At the same time, sources of information in the open literature became available to the modellers. After the blind test phase, communication was encouraged between modellers and the compiler of the scenario description at the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) to avoid unnecessary misinterpretations of input information. Clarifications and additional information provided in the course of model calculations are included in the present scenario description. 100 refs, 31 figs, 67 tabs

  12. Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

    2009-12-15

    There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

  13. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  14. Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

    2017-09-01

    The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

  15. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mohamed Wahid

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  17. Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggang Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

  18. A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

    2018-01-01

    Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

  19. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  20. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  1. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Daniel, W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

  2. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  3. Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

  4. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  5. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  6. Modeling and validation of directional reflectance for heterogeneous agro-forestry scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelu, Z.; Jing, L.; Qinhuo, L.; Huete, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape heterogeneity is a common natural phenomenon but is seldom considered in current radiative transfer models for predicting the surface reflectance. This paper developed an explicit analytical Radiative Transfer model for heterogeneous Agro-Forestry scenarios (RTAF) by dividing the scenario into non-boundary regions and boundary regions. The scattering contribution of the non-boundary regions that are treated as homogeneous canopies can be estimated from the SAILH model, whereas that of the boundary regions with lengths, widths, canopy heights, and orientations of the field patches, is calculated based on the bidirectional gap probability by considering the interactions and mutual shadowing effects among different patches. The hot spot factor is extended for heterogeneous scenarios, the Hapke model for soil anisotropy is incorporated, and the contributions of the direct and diffuse radiation are separately calculated. The multi-angular airborne observations and the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model simulations were used for validating and evaluating the RTAF model over an agro-forestry scenario in Heihe River Basin, China. It indicates that the RTAF model can accurately simulate the hemispherical-directional reflectance factors (HDRFs) of the heterogeneous agro-forestry scenario, with an RMSE of 0.0016 and 0.0179 in the red and near-infrared (NIR) bands, respectively. The RTAF model was compared with two widely used models, the dominant cover type (DCT) model and the spectral linear mixture (SLM) model, which either neglected the interactions and mutual shadowing effects between the shelterbets and crops, or did not account for the contribution of the shelterbets. Results suggest that the boundary effect can significantly influence the angular distribution of the HDRFs, and consequently enlarged the HDRF variations between the backward and forward directions in the principle plane. The RTAF model reduced the maximum relative error from 25

  7. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  8. Stress corrosion cracking of irradiated stainless steels in primary water: experimental studies and model development in the FP7 PERFECT IP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dyck, S.

    2009-01-01

    The long term behaviour of the internal structures, surrounding the core of nuclear reactors, is a concern within the general framework of plant life management. Due to their positioning in the reactor, the internal structures of a pressurised water reactor (PWR) receive a high neutron irradiation dose during their exposure to the primary environment. The irradiation induced changes in the material and environment may cause or accelerate stress corrosion cracking of stainless steel internals, otherwise insensitive to stress corrosion in primary environment. This phenomenon of irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC) is currently not well quantified. At this stage, the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of IASCC is qualitative at best and no systematic database and descriptive model are available for IASCC in PWR conditions. Since 2004, a concerted European effort is ongoing within the framework 7 PERFECT integrated project to investigate and model IASCC

  9. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  10. Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Gago-Silva

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: “business as usual”, “liberalisation” and a “lowered agriculture production”. The “business-as-usual” scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12.3% in 2009 decreasing by 3.3% in 2050. Losses expected under a “business-as-usual” scenario in agriculture, are mostly due to the conversion to shrubland and forest. Further losses in extensive agriculture are expected under the “liberalisation” scenario, decreasing by 10.3 % in 2050. Along with a marked increase in the closed and open forest area, increasing from 27.1% in 2009 to 42.3% by 2050. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the “lowered agricultural production” scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.

  11. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  12. Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn J. Draeger

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

  13. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

    2017-01-01

    Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

  14. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  15. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  16. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  17. Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Inman, Daniel J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC

    2017-08-02

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth, domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).

  18. LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

    2016-01-01

    We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

  19. Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning......-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses...... effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise....

  20. Stochastic Channel Modeling for Railway Tunnel Scenarios at 25 GHz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danping He

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high‐data‐rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the “Mobile Hotspot Network” system, a three‐dimensional ray tracer (RT is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500‐MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd‐Generation‐Partnership‐Project‐like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link‐level and system‐level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.

  1. Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

  2. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ninna Reitzel Jensen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

  3. Building the perfect PC

    CERN Document Server

    Thompson, Robert Bruce

    2006-01-01

    This popular Build-It-Yourself (BIY) PC book covers everything you want to know about building your own system: Planning and picking out the right components, step-by-step instructions for assembling your perfect PC, and an insightful discussion of why you'd want to do it in the first place. Most big brand computers from HP, Dell and others use lower-quality components so they can meet their aggressive pricing targets. But component manufacturers also make high-quality parts that you can either purchase directly, or obtain through distributors and resellers. Consumers and corporations

  4. Cluster Risk of Walking Scenarios Based on Macroscopic Flow Model and Crowding Force Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, accidents always happen in confined space such as metro stations because of congestion. Various researchers investigated the patterns of dense crowd behaviors in different scenarios via simulations or experiments and proposed methods for avoiding accidents. In this study, a classic continuum macroscopic model was applied to simulate the crowded pedestrian flow in typical scenarios such as at bottlenecks or with an obstacle. The Lax–Wendroff finite difference scheme and artificial viscosity filtering method were used to discretize the model to identify high-density risk areas. Furthermore, we introduced a contact crowding force test of the interactions among pedestrians at bottlenecks. Results revealed that in the most dangerous area, the individual on the corner position bears the maximum pressure in such scenarios is 90.2 N, and there is an approximate exponential relationship between crowding force and density indicated by our data. The results and findings presented in this paper can facilitate more reasonable and precise simulation models by utilizing crowding force and crowd density and ensure the safety of pedestrians in high-density scenarios.

  5. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  6. A passive cold storage device economic model to evaluate selected immunization location scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Bryan A; Nourollahi, Sevnaz; Chen, Sheng-I; Brown, Shawn T; Claypool, Erin G; Connor, Diana L; Schmitz, Michelle M; Rajgopal, Jayant; Wateska, Angela R; Lee, Bruce Y

    2013-10-25

    The challenge of keeping vaccines cold at health posts given the unreliability of power sources in many low- and middle-income countries and the expense and maintenance requirements of solar refrigerators has motivated the development of passive cold storage devices (PCDs), containers that keep vaccines cold without using an active energy source. With different PCDs under development, manufacturers, policymakers and funders need guidance on how varying different PCD characteristics may affect the devices' cost and utility. We developed an economic spreadsheet model representing the lowest two levels of a typical Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccine supply chain: a district store, the immunization locations that the district store serves, and the transport vehicles that operate between the district store and the immunization locations. The model compares the use of three vaccine storage device options [(1) portable PCDs, (2) stationary PCDs, or (3) solar refrigerators] and allows the user to vary different device (e.g., size and cost) and scenario characteristics (e.g., catchment area population size and vaccine schedule). For a sample set of select scenarios and equipment specification, we found the portable PCD to generally be better suited to populations of 5,000 or less. The stationary PCD replenished once per month can be a robust design especially with a 35L capacity and a cost of $2,500 or less. The solar device was generally a reasonable alternative for most of the scenarios explored if the cost was $2,100 or less (including installation). No one device type dominated over all explored circumstances. Therefore, the best device may vary from country-to-country and location-to-location within a country. This study introduces a quantitative model to help guide PCD development. Although our selected set of explored scenarios and device designs was not exhaustive, future explorations can further alter model input values to represent additional scenarios

  7. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  8. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann; Hernelind, Jan

    2010-03-01

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code B right. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  9. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

    2010-03-15

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  10. Perfect imaging without negative refraction

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2009-01-01

    Perfect imaging has been believed to rely on negative refraction, but here we show that an ordinary positively-refracting optical medium may form perfect images as well. In particular, we establish a mathematical proof that Maxwell's fish eye in two-dimensional integrated optics makes a perfect instrument with a resolution not limited by the wavelength of light. We also show how to modify the fish eye such that perfect imaging devices can be made in practice. Our method of perfect focusing ma...

  11. Perfect imaging without negative refraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonhardt, Ulf [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom)], E-mail: ulf@st-andrews.ac.uk

    2009-09-15

    Perfect imaging has been believed to rely on negative refraction, but here we show that an ordinary positively refracting optical medium may form perfect images as well. In particular, we establish a mathematical proof that Maxwell's fish eye in two-dimensional (2D) integrated optics makes a perfect instrument with a resolution not limited by the wavelength of light. We also show how to modify the fish eye such that perfect imaging devices can be made in practice. Our method of perfect focusing may also find applications outside of optics, in acoustics, fluid mechanics or quantum physics, wherever waves obey the 2D Helmholtz equation.

  12. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

  13. Evolution Scenarios at the Romanian Economy Level, Using the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian Stancu

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the presentation of the R.M. Solow adjusted model with specific simulation characteristics and economic growth scenario. Considering these aspects, there are presented the values obtained at the economy level, behind the simulations, about the ratio Capital on the output volume, Output volume on employee, equal with the current labour efficiency, as well as the Labour efficiency value.

  14. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  15. An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

    2018-03-30

    This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Perfect pitch reconsidered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulton, Calum

    2014-10-01

    Perfect pitch, or absolute pitch (AP), is defined as the ability to identify or produce the pitch of a sound without need for a reference pitch, and is generally regarded as a valuable asset to the musician. However, there has been no recent review of the literature examining its aetiology and its utility taking into account emerging scientific advances in AP research, notably in functional imaging. This review analyses the key empirical research on AP, focusing on genetic and neuroimaging studies. The review concludes that: AP probably has a genetic predisposition, although this is based on limited evidence; early musical training is almost certainly essential for AP acquisition; and, although there is evidence that it may be relevant to speech processing, AP can interfere with relative pitch, an ability on which humans rely to communicate effectively. The review calls into question the value of AP to musicians and non-musicians alike. © 2014 Royal College of Physicians.

  17. Metamaterials for perfect absorption

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Young Pak; Yoo, Young Joon; Kim, Ki Won

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive overview of the theory and practical development of metamaterial-based perfect absorbers (MMPAs). It begins with a brief history of MMPAs which reviews the various theoretical and experimental milestones in their development. The theoretical background and fundamental working principles of MMPAs are then discussed, providing the necessary background on how MMPAs work and are constructed. There then follows a section describing how different MMPAs are designed and built according to the operating frequency of the electromagnetic wave, and how their behavior is changed. Methods of fabricating and characterizing MMPAs are then presented. The book elaborates on the performance and characteristics of MMPAs, including electromagnetically-induced transparency (EIT). It also covers recent advances in MMPAs and their applications, including multi-band, broadband, tunability, polarization independence and incidence independence. Suitable for graduate students in optical sciences and e...

  18. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  19. A Nuclide Release Model for a Deep Well Scenario near a Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Choi, Jong Won

    2010-01-01

    Recently several template programs ready for the safety assessment of a high-level radioactive waste repository (HLW) and a low- and intermediate level radioactive waste repository (LILW) systems, that are conceptually modeled, have been developed by utilizing GoldSim and AMBER at KAERI. During the last few years, such template programs have been utilized for the evaluation of nuclide transports in the nearand far-field of a repository as well as transport through the biosphere under various normal and disruptive release scenarios with assumed data. The GoldSim program, another template program by which influence due to a well located very near to the repository has been modeled and evaluated for an assumed case in order to simulate the worst exposure scenario. This seems very useful to evaluate an accidental event a long time after closure of the repository has been developed and illustrated

  20. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  1. The pursuit of perfect packing

    CERN Document Server

    Weaire, Denis

    2008-01-01

    Coauthored by one of the creators of the most efficient space packing solution, the Weaire-Phelan structure, The Pursuit of Perfect Packing, Second Edition explores a problem of importance in physics, mathematics, chemistry, biology, and engineering: the packing of structures. Maintaining its mathematical core, this edition continues and revises some of the stories from its predecessor while adding several new examples and applications. The book focuses on both scientific and everyday problems ranging from atoms to honeycombs. It describes packing models, such as the Kepler conjecture, Voronoï decomposition, and Delaunay decomposition, as well as actual structure models, such as the Kelvin cell and the Weaire-Phelan structure. The authors discuss numerous historical aspects and provide biographical details on influential contributors to the field, including emails from Thomas Hales and Ken Brakke. With examples from physics, crystallography, engineering, and biology, this accessible and whimsical bo...

  2. Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

    2007-12-01

    Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

  3. Mathematical model for the formulation of runoff scenarios before possible variants of the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez Calle, Efrain Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The application of mathematical modelling to evaluate the hydrological response of different river basins under multiple climate scenarios has become a wide spread tool. However, most of the existing models demand high volumes of data and high data quality. Usually, in Latin America not only the amount of data is scarce, but also the quality of it is very poor, so it is difficult to implement mathematical models with good validation results. Additionally, those models have to be applied over big geographical regions making the hydrological modelling process an almost impossible task. All these factors are pointing to the necessity to develop low data demanding models with few data quality requirements. In this light, this paper shows an attempt to develop a hydrological model under these restrictions. The results shown are concerned with the validation assessment of a study case in Colombia over an extensive region for the Catatumbo watershed. Finally, the improvements currently under implementation are shown

  4. The perfect message at the perfect moment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalyanam, Kirthi; Zweben, Monte

    2005-11-01

    Marketers planning promotional campaigns ask questions to boost the odds that the messages will be accepted: Who should receive each message? What should be its content? How should we deliver it? The one question they rarely ask is, when should we deliver it? That's too bad, because in marketing, timing is arguably the most important variable of all. Indeed, there are moments in a customer's relationship with a business when she wants to communicate with that business because something has changed. If the company contacts her with the right message in the right format at the right time, there's a good chance of a warm reception. The question of "when" can be answered by a new computer-based model called "dialogue marketing," which is, to date, the highest rung on an evolutionary ladder that ascends from database marketing to relationship marketing to one-to-one marketing. Its principle advantages over older approaches are that it is completely interactive, exploits many communication channels, and is "relationship aware": that is, it continuously tracks every nuance of the customer's interaction with the business. Thus, dialogue marketing responds to each transition in that relationship at the moment the customer requires attention. Turning a traditional marketing strategy into a dialogue-marketing program is a straightforward matter. Begin by identifying the batch communications you make with customers, then ask yourself what events could trigger those communications to make them more timely. Add a question or call to action to each message and prepare a different treatment or response for each possible answer. Finally, create a series of increasingly urgent calls to action that kick in if the question or call to action goes unanswered by the customer. As dialogue marketing proliferates, it may provide the solid new footing that Madison Avenue seeks.

  5. Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Biology is rapidly becoming a data intensive, data-driven science. It is essential that data is represented and connected in ways that best represent its full conceptual content and allows both automated integration and data driven decision-making. Recent advancements in distributed multi-relational directed graphs, implemented in the form of the Semantic Web make it possible to deal with complicated heterogeneous data in new and interesting ways. Results This paper presents a new approach, scenario driven data modelling (SDDM), that integrates multi-relational directed graphs with data streams. SDDM can be applied to virtually any data integration challenge with widely divergent types of data and data streams. In this work, we explored integrating genetics data with reports from traditional media. SDDM was applied to the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase gene (NDM-1), an emerging global health threat. The SDDM process constructed a scenario, created a RDF multi-relational directed graph that linked diverse types of data to the Semantic Web, implemented RDF conversion tools (RDFizers) to bring content into the Sematic Web, identified data streams and analytical routines to analyse those streams, and identified user requirements and graph traversals to meet end-user requirements. Conclusions We provided an example where SDDM was applied to a complex data integration challenge. The process created a model of the emerging NDM-1 health threat, identified and filled gaps in that model, and constructed reliable software that monitored data streams based on the scenario derived multi-relational directed graph. The SDDM process significantly reduced the software requirements phase by letting the scenario and resulting multi-relational directed graph define what is possible and then set the scope of the user requirements. Approaches like SDDM will be critical to the future of data intensive, data-driven science because they automate the process of converting

  6. Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, G.; Beresford, N.A.; Alvarez-Farizo, B.; Oughton, D.; Kis, Z.; Eged, K.; Thorring, H.; Hunt, J.; Wright, S.; Barnett, C.L.; Gil, J.M.; Howard, B.J.; Crout, N.M.J.

    2005-01-01

    A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7 x 10 14 , 1.2 x 10 13 , 2.8 x 10 10 and 5.3 x 10 9 Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137 Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately pound 160 million. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented

  7. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-01

    In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

  8. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  9. Screening California Current fishery management scenarios using the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Isaac C.; Horne, Peter J.; Levin, Phillip S.

    2012-09-01

    End-to-end marine ecosystem models link climate and oceanography to the food web and human activities. These models can be used as forecasting tools, to strategically evaluate management options and to support ecosystem-based management. Here we report the results of such forecasts in the California Current, using an Atlantis end-to-end model. We worked collaboratively with fishery managers at NOAA’s regional offices and staff at the National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) to explore the impact of fishery policies on management objectives at different spatial scales, from single Marine Sanctuaries to the entire Northern California Current. In addition to examining Status Quo management, we explored the consequences of several gear switching and spatial management scenarios. Of the scenarios that involved large scale management changes, no single scenario maximized all performance metrics. Any policy choice would involve trade-offs between stakeholder groups and policy goals. For example, a coast-wide 25% gear shift from trawl to pot or longline appeared to be one possible compromise between an increase in spatial management (which sacrificed revenue) and scenarios such as the one consolidating bottom impacts to deeper areas (which did not perform substantially differently from Status Quo). Judged on a coast-wide scale, most of the scenarios that involved minor or local management changes (e.g. within Monterey Bay NMS only) yielded results similar to Status Quo. When impacts did occur in these cases, they often involved local interactions that were difficult to predict a priori based solely on fishing patterns. However, judged on the local scale, deviation from Status Quo did emerge, particularly for metrics related to stationary species or variables (i.e. habitat and local metrics of landed value or bycatch). We also found that isolated management actions within Monterey Bay NMS would cause local fishers to pay a cost for conservation, in terms of reductions in landed

  10. Perfect simulation of Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    This article concerns a perfect simulation algorithm for unmarked and marked Hawkes processes. The usual stratihtforward simulation algorithm suffers from edge effects, whereas our perfect simulation algorithm does not. By viewing Hawkes processes as Poisson cluster processes and using...... their branching and conditional independence structure, useful approximations of the distribution function for the length of a cluster are derived. This is used to construct upper and lower processes for the perfect simulation algorithm. Examples of applications and empirical results are presented....

  11. Temperature-based modeling of reference evapotranspiration using several artificial intelligence models: application of different modeling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Maroufpoor, Eisa; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

    2018-02-01

    The establishment of an accurate computational model for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) process is highly essential for several agricultural and hydrological applications, especially for the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this research, six artificial intelligence (AI) models were investigated for modeling ET0 using a small number of climatic data generated from the minimum and maximum temperatures of the air and extraterrestrial radiation. The investigated models were multilayer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partitioning and subtractive clustering (ANFIS-GP and ANFIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP). The implemented monthly time scale data set was collected at the Antalya and Isparta stations which are located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation and its calibrated version (CHS) were used to perform a verification analysis of the established AI models. The accuracy of validation was focused on multiple quantitative metrics, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R 2), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS). The results of the conducted models were highly practical and reliable for the investigated case studies. At the Antalya station, the performance of the GEP and GRNN models was better than the other investigated models, while the performance of the RBNN and ANFIS-SC models was best compared to the other models at the Isparta station. Except for the MLP model, all the other investigated models presented a better performance accuracy compared to the HS and CHS empirical models when applied in a cross-station scenario. A cross-station scenario examination implies the

  12. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

  13. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems - 15483

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuznetsov, V.; Fesenko, G.

    2015-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21. century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled 'Global scenarios' is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21. century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries' different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies. (authors)

  14. Perfect simulation of Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2005-01-01

    Our objective is to construct a perfect simulation algorithm for unmarked and marked Hawkes processes. The usual straightforward simulation algorithm suffers from edge effects, whereas our perfect simulation algorithm does not. By viewing Hawkes processes as Poisson cluster processes and using...... their branching and conditional independence structures, useful approximations of the distribution function for the length of a cluster are derived. This is used to construct upper and lower processes for the perfect simulation algorithm. A tail-lightness condition turns out to be of importance...... for the applicability of the perfect simulation algorithm. Examples of applications and empirical results are presented....

  15. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

  16. Scenario and parameter studies on global deposition of radioactivity using the computer model GLODEP2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, C.S.

    1984-08-01

    The GLODEP2 computer code was utilized to determine biological impact to humans on a global scale using up-to-date estimates of biological risk. These risk factors use varied biological damage models for assessing effects. All the doses reported are the unsheltered, unweathered, smooth terrain, external gamma dose. We assume the unperturbed atmosphere in determining injection and deposition. Effects due to ''nuclear winter'' may invalidate this assumption. The calculations also include scenarios that attempt to assess the impact of the changing nature of the nuclear stockpile. In particular, the shift from larger to smaller yield nuclear devices significantly changes the injection pattern into the atmosphere, and hence significantly affects the radiation doses that ensue. We have also looked at injections into the equatorial atmosphere. In total, we report here the results for 8 scenarios. 10 refs., 6 figs., 11 tabs

  17. Bayesian modeling and inference for diagnostic accuracy and probability of disease based on multiple diagnostic biomarkers with and without a perfect reference standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarzadeh, S Reza; Johnson, Wesley O; Gardner, Ian A

    2016-03-15

    The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is used as a performance metric for quantitative tests. Although multiple biomarkers may be available for diagnostic or screening purposes, diagnostic accuracy is often assessed individually rather than in combination. In this paper, we consider the interesting problem of combining multiple biomarkers for use in a single diagnostic criterion with the goal of improving the diagnostic accuracy above that of an individual biomarker. The diagnostic criterion created from multiple biomarkers is based on the predictive probability of disease, conditional on given multiple biomarker outcomes. If the computed predictive probability exceeds a specified cutoff, the corresponding subject is allocated as 'diseased'. This defines a standard diagnostic criterion that has its own ROC curve, namely, the combined ROC (cROC). The AUC metric for cROC, namely, the combined AUC (cAUC), is used to compare the predictive criterion based on multiple biomarkers to one based on fewer biomarkers. A multivariate random-effects model is proposed for modeling multiple normally distributed dependent scores. Bayesian methods for estimating ROC curves and corresponding (marginal) AUCs are developed when a perfect reference standard is not available. In addition, cAUCs are computed to compare the accuracy of different combinations of biomarkers for diagnosis. The methods are evaluated using simulations and are applied to data for Johne's disease (paratuberculosis) in cattle. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin

    2015-01-01

    distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry

  19. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

    2015-01-01

    Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  20. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  1. Downscaling SSPs in the GBM Delta - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Munsur Rahman, Md.; Hutton, Craig; Lazar, Attila

    2016-04-01

    A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

  2. Downscaling SSPs in Bangladesh - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, A.; Barbour, E.; Salehin, M.; Hutton, C.; Lázár, A. N.; Nicholls, R. J.; Rahman, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

  3. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  4. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2018-01-01

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  6. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  7. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

    2017-10-01

    Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the

  9. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshan GholamReza

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  10. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

    2012-12-12

    The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  11. Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

    2018-05-17

    Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

  12. A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

  13. Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyril Montabert

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

  14. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  15. Validation of Tilt Gain under Realistic Path Loss Model and Network Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Huan Cong; Rodriguez, Ignacio; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a simple and commonly-applied radio optimization technique, the impact on practical network performance from base station antenna downtilt is not well understood. Most published studies based on empirical path loss models report tilt angles and performance gains that are far higher...... than practical experience suggests. We motivate in this paper, based on a practical LTE scenario, that the discrepancy partly lies in the path loss model, and shows that a more detailed semi-deterministic model leads to both lower gains in terms of SINR, outage probability and downlink throughput...... settings, including the use of electrical and/or mechanical antenna downtilt, and therefore it is possible to find multiple optimum tilt profiles in a practical case. A broader implication of this study is that care must be taken when using the 3GPP model to evaluate advanced adaptive antenna techniques...

  16. Dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generation using a phenomenological modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Rosen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    : the larger the simulated sewer network, the smoother the simulated diurnal flow rate and concentration variations. In the discussion, it is pointed out how the proposed phenomenological models can be expanded to other applications, for example to represent heavy metal or organic micro-pollutant loads......Activated Sludge Models are widely used for simulation-based evaluation of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance. However, due to the high workload and cost of a measuring campaign on a full-scale WWTP, many simulation studies suffer from lack of sufficiently long influent flow rate...... and concentration time series representing realistic wastewater influent dynamics. In this paper, a simple phenomenological modelling approach is proposed as an alternative to generate dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenarios. The presented set of models is constructed following the principles of parsimony...

  17. A systematic methodology to extend the applicability of a bioconversion model for the simulation of various co-digestion scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovalovszki, Adam; Alvarado-Morales, Merlin; Fotidis, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Detailed simulation of anaerobic digestion (AD) requires complex mathematical models and the optimization of numerous model parameters. By performing a systematic methodology and identifying parameters with the highest impact on process variables in a well-established AD model, its applicability...... was extended to various co-digestion scenarios. More specifically, the application of the step-by-step methodology led to the estimation of a general and reduced set of parameters, for the simulation of scenarios where either manure or wastewater were co-digested with different organic substrates. Validation...... experimental data quite well, indicating that it offers a reliable reference point for future simulations of anaerobic co-digestion scenarios....

  18. Climate protection scenario 2050. 1. Meeting on modeling; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. 1. Modellierungsrunde.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Repenning, Julia; Matthes, Felix C.; Blanck, R. [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); and others

    2014-08-04

    The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

  19. Ship speed optimization: Concepts, models and combined speed-routing scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to clarify some important issues as regards ship speed optimization at the operational level and develop models that optimize ship speed for a spectrum of routing scenarios in a single ship setting. The paper's main contribution is the incorporation of those fundament...... parameters and other considerations that weigh heavily in a ship owner's or charterer's speed decision and in his routing decision, wherever relevant. Various examples are given so as to illustrate the properties of the optimal solution and the various trade-offs that are involved....

  20. Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Maysa Joppert

    The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

  1. Escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Probabilistic cause and consequence modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eknes, Monika Loeland

    1996-12-31

    This Dr. ing. thesis deals with escalation scenarios initiated by gas explosions on offshore installations. Gas explosions is one of the major hazards to such installations. The objectives were to estimate the probability of ignition and frequency of gas explosions for gas leaks on top sides of offshore installations, and to estimate the response and resistance of components that could result in escalation if they failed. Main fields considered cover risk analysis methodology, gas explosions, simplified escalation models, evaluation of structural consequences, case studies, and guidelines. 107 refs., 33 figs., 33 tabs.

  2. Dynamics of Aviation Biofuel Investment, Incentives, and Market Growth: An Exploration Using the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura; Newes, Emily

    2016-10-25

    The Federal Aviation Administration promotes the development of an aviation biofuel market, and has pursued a goal of 1 billion gallons of production annually by 2018. Although this goal is unlikely to be met, this analysis applies the Biomass Scenario Model to explore conditions affecting market growth, and identifies policy incentive and oil price conditions under which this level of production might occur, and by what year. Numerous combinations of conditions that are more favorable than current conditions can reach the goal before 2030.

  3. Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

  4. Modelling of shear effects on thermal and particle transport in advanced Tokamak scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, D.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Baker, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    Evolution of thermal and particle internal transport barriers (ITBs) is studied by modelling the time-dependent energy and particle balance in DIII-D plasmas with reversed magnetic shear configurations and in JET discharges with monotonic or slightly reversed q-profiles and large ExB rotation shear. Simulations are performed with semi-empirical models for anomalous diffusion and particle pinch. Stabilizing effects of magnetic and ExB rotation shears are included in anomalous particle and heat diffusivity. Shear effects on particle and thermal transport are compared. Improved particle and energy confinement with the formation of an internal transport barrier (ITB) has been produced in DIII-D plasmas during current ramp-up accompanied with neutral beam injection (NBI). These plasmas are characterized by strong reversed magnetic shear and large ExB rotation shear which provide the reduction of anomalous fluxes. The formation of ITB's in the optimized shear (OS) JET scenario starts with strong NBI heating in a target plasma with a flat or slightly reversed q-profile pre-formed during current ramp-up with ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). Our paper presents the modelling of particle and thermal transport for these scenarios. (authors)

  5. Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

    2018-06-01

    River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

  6. CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

    2017-01-01

    China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

  7. Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rossol, Michael N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vergara, Claudio [MIT; Domingo, Carlos Mateo [IIT Comillas; Postigo, Fernando [IIT Comillas; de Cuadra, Fernando [IIT Comillas; Gomez, Tomas [IIT Comillas; Duenas, Pablo [MIT; Luke, Max [MIT; Li, Vivian [MIT; Vinoth, Mohan [GE Grid Solutions; Kadankodu, Sree [GE Grid Solutions

    2017-08-09

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present the goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.

  8. Multiple Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Richard J.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2008-01-01

    With the exception of Los Angeles, perhaps no urban area in the United States is more at risk from landsliding, triggered by either precipitation or earthquake, than the San Francisco Bay region of northern California. By January each year, seasonal winter storms usually bring moisture levels of San Francisco Bay region hillsides to the point of saturation, after which additional heavy rainfall may induce landslides of various types and levels of severity. In addition, movement at any time along one of several active faults in the area may generate an earthquake large enough to trigger landslides. The danger to life and property rises each year as local populations continue to expand and more hillsides are graded for development of residential housing and its supporting infrastructure. The chapters in the text consist of: *Introduction by Russell W. Graymer *Chapter 1 Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Activity, San Francisco Bay Region, Northern California by Raymond C. Wilson *Chapter 2 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 3 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven Sobieszczyk *Chapter 4 Landslide Hazard Modeled for the Cities of Oakland, Piedmont, and Berkeley, Northern California, from a M=7.1 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault Zone by Scott B. Miles and David K. Keefer *Chapter 5 Synthesis of Landslide-Hazard Scenarios Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike The plates consist of: *Plate 1 Susceptibility to Deep-Seated Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Richard J. Pike, Russell W. Graymer, Sebastian Roberts, Naomi B. Kalman, and Steven Sobieszczyk *Plate 2 Susceptibility to Shallow Landsliding Modeled for the Oakland-Berkeley Area, Northern California by Kevin M. Schmidt and Steven

  9. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Andrew Joyner

    Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

  10. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  11. Realistic modelling of external flooding scenarios - A multi-disciplinary approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkman, J.L.

    2014-01-01

    against flooding and timing of the events into account as basis for the development and screening of flooding scenarios. Realistic modelling of external flooding scenarios in a PSA requires a multi-disciplinary approach. Next to being thoroughly familiar with the design features of the plant against flooding, like its critical elevations for safety (related) equipment and the strength of buildings, additional knowledge is necessary on design of flood protection measures as dikes and dunes, their failure behaviour and modelling. The approach does not change the basic flooding scenarios - the event tree structure - itself, but impacts the initiating event of the specific flooding scenarios. (authors)

  12. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

    2016-05-01

    Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

  13. Polarized heavy baryon production in quark-diquark model considering two different scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moosavi Nejad, S.M. [Yazd University, Faculty of Physics, Yazd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), School of Particles and Accelerators, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Delpasand, M. [Yazd University, Faculty of Physics, Yazd (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    At sufficiently large transverse momentum, the dominant production mechanism for heavy baryons is actually the fragmentation. In this work, we first study the direct fragmentation of a heavy quark into the unpolarized triply heavy baryons in the leading order of perturbative QCD. In a completely different approach, we also analyze the two-stage fragmentation of a heavy quark into a scalar diquark followed by the fragmentation of such a scalar diquark into a triply heavy baryon: quark-diquark model of baryons. The results of this model are in acceptable agreement with those obtained through a full perturbative regime. Relying on the quark-diquark model and considering two different scenarios we determine the spin-dependent fragmentation functions of polarized heavy baryons in such a way that a vector or a pseudoscalar heavy diquark is an intermediate particle between the initial heavy quark and the final state baryon. (orig.)

  14. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN. PMID:26593919

  15. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

    2015-11-17

    This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  16. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  17. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  18. Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

  19. Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P.

    2011-02-01

    SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case scenario in

  20. Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P. (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2011-02-15

    SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case

  1. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

  2. Integrated municipal solid waste scenario model using advanced pretreatment and waste to energy processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Gabriela; Rada, Elena Cristina; Ragazzi, Marco; Mărculescu, Cosmin; Badea, Adrian; Apostol, Tiberiu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Appropriate solution for MSW management in new and future EU countries. • Decrease of landfill disposal applying an Integrated MSW approach. • Technological impediments and environmental assessment. - Abstract: In this paper an Integrated Municipal Solid Waste scenario model (IMSW-SM) with a potential practical application in the waste management sector is analyzed. The model takes into account quantification and characterization of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) streams from different sources, selective collection (SC), advanced mechanical sorting, material recovery and advanced thermal treatment. The paper provides a unique chain of advanced waste pretreatment stages of fully commingled waste streams, leading to an original set of suggestions and future contributions to a sustainable IMSWS, taking into account real data and EU principles. The selection of the input data was made on MSW management real case studies from two European regions. Four scenarios were developed varying mainly SC strategies and thermal treatment options. The results offer useful directions for decision makers in order to calibrate modern strategies in different realities

  3. Photochemical modelling of photo-oxidant levels over the Swiss plateau and emission reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosselet, C.M.; Kerr, J.A.

    1993-05-01

    During summertime high pressure conditions, high photo-oxidant (O 3 , H 2 O 2 , PAN and others) levels are frequently observed in the planetary boundary layer in central Europe. It is well known that close to the earth's surface ozone is formed by complex reactions involving VOC, NO x , and sunlight. Substantial reductions of both precursors are needed to reduce photo-oxidant levels. In this context the reductions of the abundance of the precursors and the variation of their ratios is of great importance. Here we report model calculations from the Harwell Photochemical Trajectory Model of the levels of O 3 , H 2 O 2 and PAN along a trajectory over the Swiss Plateau from Lake Constance to Lake Geneva. These calculations are in satisfactory agreement with measurements made during the intensive observation period of the research program POLLUMET (Pollution and Meteorology in Switzerland). Sensitivity calculations of emission reduction scenarios indicate that on the Swiss Plateau the ozone production may be mainly NO x -limited; under conditions where the CO levels are closer to the upper limit within the range (120-600 ppbv). The calculated peak ozone level reduction caused by an exclusive NO x -emission reduction is about three times larger than that caused by an exclusive VOC reduction. The combined reduction of all precursor compounds is the most efficient strategy, although it is only marginally more efficient than the NO x -reduction scenario alone. (author) figs., tabs., 75 refs

  4. Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Yildiray; Lee, Ritchie; Brat, Guillaume

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

  5. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2015-01-01

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  6. Land Use Scenarios for Greater Copenhagen: Modelling the Impact of the Fingerplan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...

  7. Use of Danish Heat Atlas and energy system models for exploring renewable energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2013-01-01

    networks in relation with significant heat saving measures that are capital intensive infrastructure investments require highly detailed decision - support tools. The Heat Atlas for Denmark provides a highly detailed database and includes heat demand and possible heat savings for about 2.5 million...... buildings with associated costs included. Energy systems modelling tools that incorporate economic, environmental, energy and engineering analysis of future energy systems are considered crucial for quantitative assessment of transitional scenarios towards future milestones, such as (i) EU 2020 goals...... of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing share of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency and (ii) Denmark’s 2050 goals of covering entire energy supply by renewable energy. Optimization and simulation energy system models are currently used in Denmark. The present paper tends to provide...

  8. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  9. Seismic ground motion modelling and damage earthquake scenarios: A bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari. F.; . E-mails: Luis.Decanini@uniroma1.it; Fabrizio.Mollaioli@uniroma1.it)

    2002-07-01

    The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with a description of 'roundshaking scenarios', or with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. We prefer a scenario-based, deterministic approach in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes. The joint use of reliable synthetic signals and observations permits the computation of advanced hazard indicators (e.g. damaging potential) that take into account local soil properties. The envelope of synthetic elastic energy spectra reproduces the distribution of the energy demand in the most relevant frequency range for seismic engineering. The synthetic accelerograms can be fruitfully used for design and strengthening of structures, also when innovative techniques, like seismic isolation, are employed. For these

  10. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  11. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  12. A see-saw scenario of an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Dinh, Dinh Nguyen; Văn, Phi Quang; Vân, Nguyen Thi Hông

    2016-01-01

    A see-saw scenario for an $A_4$ flavour symmetric standard model is presented. As before, the see-saw mechanism can be realized in several models of different types depending on different ways of neutrino mass generation corresponding to the introduction of new fields with different symmetry structures. In the present paper, a general desription of all these see-saw types is made with a more detailed investigation on type-I models. As within the original see-saw mechanism, the symmetry structure of the standard model fields decides the number and the symmetry structure of the new fields. In a model considered here, the scalar sector consists of three standard-model-Higgs-like iso-doublets ($SU_L(2)$-doublets) forming an $A_4$ triplet. The latter is a superposition of three mass-eigen states, one of which could be identified with the recently discovered Higgs boson. A possible relation to the still-deliberated 750 GeV diphoton resonance at the 13 TeV LHC collisions is also discussed. In the lepton sector, the ...

  13. Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

    2015-12-01

    Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

  14. Construction and Evaluation of Scenarios as a Learning Strategy through Modelling-Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available From a systemic perspective and in the context of an increasing generalization in the use of new technologies and the change in the educational paradigm -which emphasizes guided and autonomous learning-, the learning strategy should be routed to join logical reasoning and instrumental skills (software. The inclusion of new computing and communication resources to the learning process turns them into teaching tools, which makes it possible to organize the teaching and learning process in a different way. The design of these new scenarios of study has important implications to the way information is processed, to the different levels of learning (descriptive, explanatory or analytical ones and to the way knowledge is acquired and evaluated. In addition, that design takes into account the greater student-content, student-student and student-teacher interactivities, always emphasizing guided independent learning. Thus, the construction, analysis and evaluation of scenarios through models and simulation are the strategy that best suits the current learning style followed by students.

  15. Modelling of motorway tunnels scenario for utilization of conditionally released radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrncir, Tomas; Panik, Michal; Necas, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    Considerable amount of solid radioactive waste with radioactivity slightly above the limits for unconditional release is generated during the decommissioning of the nuclear installations. Conditional release deals with precisely this type of materials with activity slightly above limits in order to save considerable financial resources, which would be otherwise spend on treatment, conditioning and disposal of these materials at appropriate repository. The basic principles of conditional release as well as possibilities of reusing of the conditionally released materials are described. One of these possibilities of the reusing was chosen and application proposal of conditional release of metal waste - steel reinforcement in the concrete, which could be used for construction of motorway tunnels, was created. The computer code Visiplan 4.0 3D ALARA planning tool software was used for the calculation of effective individual dose for personnel constructing the tunnel and for critical group related to scenario. Particular models for individual scenarios of conditional release have been developed within the scope of this software code. The aim of the paper is to determine a level of the radioactivity of conditional released materials to avoid over exceeding the value of annual individual effective dose 10μSv/year established by international recommendations. (author)

  16. Modeling potential scenarios of the Tangjiashan Lake outburst and risk assessment in the downstream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidyaeva, Vera; Chernomorets, Sergey; Krylenko, Inna; Wei, Fangqiang; Petrakov, Dmitry; Su, Pengcheng; Yang, Hongjuan; Xiong, Junnan

    2017-09-01

    This research is devoted to Tangjiashan Lake, a quake landslide-dammed lake, situated in Sichuan Province, China, which was formed by a landslide triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake on 12 May 2008. A STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Russia was applied to simulate the process of two flood scenarios: 1, lake dam outbreak, and 2, dam overtopping. An artificial dam outbreak was made after the earthquake to lower the water level of the lake in 2008, which led to a great flood with a maximum water discharge of more than 6400 m3/s. The negative impact of the flood was reduced by a timely evacuation of the population. Flood hazards still remain in the event of new landslides into the lake and lake dam overtopping (Scenario 2), in which case a maximum water discharge at the dam crest would reach 5000 m3/s, placing the population of Shabacun and Shilingzi villages in the zone of flood impact.

  17. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 Storage Reservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-01-01

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies

  18. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  19. Efficient multi-scenario Model Predictive Control for water resources management with ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Negenborn, Rudy R.; van Overloop, Peter-Jules; María Maestre, José; Sadowska, Anna; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-11-01

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced real-time control techniques that has been widely applied to Water Resources Management (WRM). MPC can manage the water system in a holistic manner and has a flexible structure to incorporate specific elements, such as setpoints and constraints. Therefore, MPC has shown its versatile performance in many branches of WRM. Nonetheless, with the in-depth understanding of stochastic hydrology in recent studies, MPC also faces the challenge of how to cope with hydrological uncertainty in its decision-making process. A possible way to embed the uncertainty is to generate an Ensemble Forecast (EF) of hydrological variables, rather than a deterministic one. The combination of MPC and EF results in a more comprehensive approach: Multi-scenario MPC (MS-MPC). In this study, we will first assess the model performance of MS-MPC, considering an ensemble streamflow forecast. Noticeably, the computational inefficiency may be a critical obstacle that hinders applicability of MS-MPC. In fact, with more scenarios taken into account, the computational burden of solving an optimization problem in MS-MPC accordingly increases. To deal with this challenge, we propose the Adaptive Control Resolution (ACR) approach as a computationally efficient scheme to practically reduce the number of control variables in MS-MPC. In brief, the ACR approach uses a mixed-resolution control time step from the near future to the distant future. The ACR-MPC approach is tested on a real-world case study: an integrated flood control and navigation problem in the North Sea Canal of the Netherlands. Such an approach reduces the computation time by 18% and up in our case study. At the same time, the model performance of ACR-MPC remains close to that of conventional MPC.

  20. MODELLING OF SCENARIOS OF THE CRISIS PHENOMENA TRANSFER AMONG FINANCIAL MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna Strelchenko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of crisis transference among financial markets in different countries is especially evident during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Abnormal imbalances emerged in the market of secondary financial instruments in the United States in the second half of 2006 and quickly spread to the financial markets of most countries of the world. However, the rate of fall of the main macroeconomic indicators, the duration of the latent period (the time between the date of the beginning of the financial crisis in the source country and date of the recorded fall in GDP of the country that is subjected to “contagion” (Strelchenko, 2016, and recovery period are substantially different. To generate an effective economic policy actually, there is a task of determining the possible scenarios of transferring crisis. The research subject is a process of transfer of the crisis phenomena among the financial markets of countries with different levels of economic development. Methodology. The paper presents the results of a study on the differentiation of the financial markets reactions to the crisis transfer. To build the corresponding classification model, self-organization Kohonen neural networks are used. The purpose of this work is to build a neural network model for clustering economies according to the response to external financial shocks. This model allows predicting the scenarios of transferring crisis among financial markets. Conclusion. As a result of the study, there is built a neural network with the architecture of the Kohonen map. The neural network has one hidden layer consisting of six neurons and has a hexagonal structure. Six clusters describe six possible scenarios of the economy dynamics under the impact of the transfer of crises. Cluster number one and two unite countries characterized by a short period of economic recovery and return of the main macroeconomic indicators to the precrisis levels. A longer recovery period and

  1. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  2. Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in

  3. Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

  4. Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-04-23

    We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

  5. High resolution climate scenarios for snowmelt modelling in small alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirmer, M.; Peleg, N.; Burlando, P.; Jonas, T.

    2017-12-01

    Snow in the Alps is affected by climate change with regard to duration, timing and amount. This has implications with respect to important societal issues as drinking water supply or hydropower generation. In Switzerland, the latter received a lot of attention following the political decision to phase out of nuclear electricity production. An increasing number of authorization requests for small hydropower plants located in small alpine catchments was observed in the recent years. This situation generates ecological conflicts, while the expected climate change poses a threat to water availability thus putting at risk investments in such hydropower plants. Reliable high-resolution climate scenarios are thus required, which account for small-scale processes to achieve realistic predictions of snowmelt runoff and its variability in small alpine catchments. We therefore used a novel model chain by coupling a stochastic 2-dimensional weather generator (AWE-GEN-2d) with a state-of-the-art energy balance snow cover model (FSM). AWE-GEN-2d was applied to generate ensembles of climate variables at very fine temporal and spatial resolution, thus providing all climatic input variables required for the energy balance modelling. The land-surface model FSM was used to describe spatially variable snow cover accumulation and melt processes. The FSM was refined to allow applications at very high spatial resolution by specifically accounting for small-scale processes, such as a subgrid-parametrization of snow covered area or an improved representation of forest-snow processes. For the present study, the model chain was tested for current climate conditions using extensive observational dataset of different spatial and temporal coverage. Small-scale spatial processes such as elevation gradients or aspect differences in the snow distribution were evaluated using airborne LiDAR data. 40-year of monitoring data for snow water equivalent, snowmelt and snow-covered area for entire

  6. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  7. Evaluating nitrogen taxation scenarios using the dynamic whole farm simulation model FASSET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berntsen, Jørgen; Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Jacobsen, B.H.

    2003-01-01

    The whole farm model FASSET ver. 1.0 was used for evaluation of the environmental and economic consequences of implementing different nitrogen taxes. The taxation policies analysed were a tax on nitrogen in mineral fertiliser, a tax on nitrogen in mineral fertiliser and imported animal feedstuff......, and a tax on the farm nitrogen surplus. In these scenarios, the tax price was equal to the price of the nitrogen in mineral fertilisers (0.67 € kg N−1). Four farm types were considered: arable on sandy soil, arable on loamy soil, pig production on sandy soil and pig production on loamy soil. Impacts...... of the taxes for each farm type on crop rotation, fertiliser use and pig production were estimated by the Linear Programming module of FASSET. The dynamic simulation module of FASSET evaluated the environmental and economic consequences of the new production plans. The social abatement cost of reducing nitrate...

  8. The origin of platyrrhines: An evaluation of the Antarctic scenario and the floating island model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, A

    1999-08-01

    This paper evaluates whether 1) protoplatyrrhines could have migrated to South America via Antarctica, and 2) the floating island model is a plausible transoceanic mode of dispersal for land vertebrates like protoplatyrrhines. Results show that Eocene Antarctica and Australia supported large and dense forests, and that the Antarctic fauna was comprised of many species of vertebrates, including placental and marsupial land mammals. However, no primate remains have ever been reported from these continents. Antarctica and South America were connected until the Middle Eocene (i.e., after the oldest Asian anthropoids), but two major water barriers existed between Antarctica and Asia since the Early Eocene. The Eocene and Oligocene water gap separating Africa and Antarctica was excessively large. Thus, all scenarios involving an Antarctic route have been rejected. The African scenario is difficult to falsify because only one water barrier existed, both paleowinds and paleocurrents were favorable, and Paleogene African anthropoids show phylogenetic affinities to platyrrhines. I tested whether a journey on a hypothetical floating island over the Paleogene Atlantic Ocean exceeds the survival limit of a genetically viable group of animals such as protoplatyrrhines. Studies of water deprivation suggest that they could have been able, with a body weight averaging 1 kg, to survive without water for at least 13 days. I have used the present Atlantic Ocean as a model for the velocity of Paleogene paleowinds and paleocurrents. Considering winds as the key accelerating force of floating islands, the Paleogene Atlantic water barrier could have been crossed, in the most conservative scenario, in 8 days at 50 Mya, 11 days at 40 Mya, and 15 days at 30 Mya. In order to survive a transoceanic journey, however, protoplatyrrhines had to be preadapted to strong seasonal variations in water availability in their original (African) environment. Once on the sea, their brains would have

  9. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  10. Biofuel and Bioenergy implementation scenarios. Final report of VIEWLS WP5, modelling studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakker, A.; Egging, R.; Van Thuijl, E.; Van Tilburg, X.; Deurwaarder, E.P.; De Lange, T.J.; Berndes, G.; Hansson, J.

    2005-11-01

    This report is published within the framework of the European Commission-supported project 'Clear Views on Clean Fuels' or VIEWLS. The overall objectives of this project are to provide structured and clear data on the availability and performance of biofuel and to identify the possibilities and strategies towards large-scale sustainable production, use and trading of biofuels for the transport sector in Europe, including Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). This reports constitutes the outcome of the Work Package 5 (WP5) of the VIEWLS project. In WP5 the EU biofuels and bioenergy markets are modelled with the aim to conduct quantitative analyses on the production and costs of biofuels and on the resulting market structure and supply chains. In a bigger context, where possible, WP5 aims also to provide insight into larger socio-economic impacts of bioenergy trade within Europe. The objective of this research is to develop a cost efficient biofuel strategy for Europe in terms of biofuel production, cost and trade, and to assess its larger impact on bioenergy markets and trade up to 2030. Based on the biomass availability and associated costs within EU25, under different conditions, scenarios for biofuels production and cost can be constructed using quantitative modelling tools. Combining this with (cost) data on biofuel conversion technologies and transport of biomass and biofuels, the lowest cost biofuel supply chain given a certain demand predetermined by the biofuels Directive can be designed. In a broader context, this is supplemented by a design of a sustainable bioenergy supply chain in view of the fact that biomass-heat, biomass-electricity and biofuels are competing for the same biomass resources. In other words, the scarcity of bioenergy crops, as manifested through overall bioenergy demand, is an essential variable in bioenergy scenarios

  11. Shale gas technology innovation rate impact on economic Base Case – Scenario model benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weijermars, Ruud

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Cash flow models control which technology is affordable in emerging shale gas plays. • Impact of technology innovation on IRR can be as important as wellhead price hikes. • Cash flow models are useful for technology decisions that make shale gas plays economic. • The economic gap can be closed by appropriate technology innovation. - Abstract: Low gas wellhead prices in North America have put its shale gas industry under high competitive pressure. Rapid technology innovation can help companies to improve the economic performance of shale gas fields. Cash flow models are paramount for setting effective production and technology innovation targets to achieve positive returns on investment in all global shale gas plays. Future cash flow of a well (or cluster of wells) may either improve further or deteriorate, depending on: (1) the regional volatility in gas prices at the wellhead – which must pay for the gas resource extraction, and (2) the cost and effectiveness of the well technology used. Gas price is an externality and cannot be controlled by individual companies, but well technology cost can be reduced while improving production output. We assume two plausible scenarios for well technology innovation and model the return on investment while checking against sensitivity to gas price volatility. It appears well technology innovation – if paced fast enough – can fully redeem the negative impact of gas price decline on shale well profits, and the required rates are quantified in our sensitivity analysis

  12. Nirex methodology for scenario and conceptual model development. An international peer review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-06-01

    Nirex has responsibilities for nuclear waste management in the UK. The company's top level objectives are to maintain technical credibility on deep disposal, to gain public acceptance for a deep geologic repository, and to provide relevant advice to customers on the safety implications of their waste packaging proposals. Nirex utilizes peer reviews as appropriate to keep its scientific tools up-to-date and to periodically verify the quality of its products. The NEA formed an International Review Team (IRT) consisting of four internationally recognised experts plus a member of the NEA Secretariat. The IRT performed an in-depth analysis of five Nirex scientific reports identified in the terms of reference of the review. The review was to primarily judge whether the Nirex methodology provides an adequate framework to support the building of a future licensing safety case. Another objective was to judge whether the methodology could aid in establishing a better understanding, and, ideally, enhance acceptance of a repository among stakeholders. Methodologies for conducting safety assessments include at a very basic level the identification of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the system at hand, their convolution in scenarios for analysis, and the formulation of conceptual models to be addressed through numerical modelling. The main conclusion of the IRT is that Nirex has developed a potentially sound methodology for the identification and analysis of FEPs and for the identification of conceptual model needs and model requirements. The work is still in progress and is not yet complete. (R.P.)

  13. A Context-Aware Model to Provide Positioning in Disaster Relief Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moreno

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of the work performed during disaster relief efforts is highly dependent on the coordination of activities conducted by the first responders deployed in the affected area. Such coordination, in turn, depends on an appropriate management of geo-referenced information. Therefore, enabling first responders to count on positioning capabilities during these activities is vital to increase the effectiveness of the response process. The positioning methods used in this scenario must assume a lack of infrastructure-based communication and electrical energy, which usually characterizes affected areas. Although positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS have been shown to be useful, we cannot assume that all devices deployed in the area (or most of them will have positioning capabilities by themselves. Typically, many first responders carry devices that are not capable of performing positioning on their own, but that require such a service. In order to help increase the positioning capability of first responders in disaster-affected areas, this paper presents a context-aware positioning model that allows mobile devices to estimate their position based on information gathered from their surroundings. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using simulations, and the obtained results show that mobile devices without positioning capabilities were able to use the model to estimate their position. Moreover, the accuracy of the positioning model has been shown to be suitable for conducting most first response activities.

  14. Modelling command and control for emergency response scenarios: A marine oil spills perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisman, R.

    1993-01-01

    Commanders in emergency response scenarios have to rapidly formulate viable plans of action in the face of uncertainty, and on the basis of incomplete information and a constantly changing situation. Automated intelligent decision support systems may be a means of helping the commander to elaborate a plan, producing the operations order, and monitoring the plan's execution. The latter aspect would permit the system to advise a commander when key assumptions upon which the plan is based are no longer valid. Any such system will invariably be complex. The first step is the development of a conceptual model which will provide a sound structure to contain all of the requisite knowledge and information. The subject model is relatively simple and includes a metric for evaluating plans, a practical means of handling uncertainty, and a constraint language to capture expert knowledge precisely. Aspects of the model are illustrated using practical examples from the domain of maritime oil spill response. Results from several computer-based implementations of parts of the model are also discussed. 13 refs., 17 figs

  15. A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne; Obenour, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    For almost three decades, the relative size of the hypoxic region on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf has drawn scientific and policy attention. During that time, both simple and complex models have been used to explore hypoxia dynamics and to provide management guidance relating the size of the hypoxic zone to key drivers. Throughout much of that development, analyses had to accommodate an apparent change in hypoxic sensitivity to loads and often cull observations due to anomalous meteorological conditions. Here, we describe an adaptation of our earlier, simple biophysical model, calibrated to revised hypoxic area estimates and new hypoxic volume estimates through Bayesian estimation. This application eliminates the need to cull observations and provides revised hypoxic extent estimates with uncertainties, corresponding to different nutrient loading reduction scenarios. We compare guidance from this model application, suggesting an approximately 62% nutrient loading reduction is required to reduce Gulf hypoxia to the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km2, to that of previous applications. In addition, we describe for the first time, the corresponding response of hypoxic volume. We also analyze model results to test for increasing system sensitivity to hypoxia formation, but find no strong evidence of such change.

  16. A note on perfect scalar fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unnikrishnan, Sanil; Sriramkumar, L.

    2010-01-01

    We derive a condition on the Lagrangian density describing a generic, single, noncanonical scalar field, by demanding that the intrinsic, nonadiabatic pressure perturbation associated with the scalar field vanishes identically. Based on the analogy with perfect fluids, we refer to such fields as perfect scalar fields. It is common knowledge that models that depend only on the kinetic energy of the scalar field (often referred to as pure kinetic models) possess no nonadiabatic pressure perturbation. While we are able to construct models that seemingly depend on the scalar field and also do not contain any nonadiabatic pressure perturbation, we find that all such models that we construct allow a redefinition of the field under which they reduce to pure kinetic models. We show that, if a perfect scalar field drives inflation, then, in such situations, the first slow roll parameter will always be a monotonically decreasing function of time. We point out that this behavior implies that these scalar fields cannot lead to features in the inflationary, scalar perturbation spectrum.

  17. Integrating surrogate models into subsurface simulation framework allows computation of complex reactive transport scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Jatnieks, Janis; Kühn, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Reactive transport simulations - where geochemical reactions are coupled with hydrodynamic transport of reactants - are extremely time consuming and suffer from significant numerical issues. Given the high uncertainties inherently associated with the geochemical models, which also constitute the major computational bottleneck, such requirements may seem inappropriate and probably constitute the main limitation for their wide application. A promising way to ease and speed-up such coupled simulations is achievable employing statistical surrogates instead of "full-physics" geochemical models [1]. Data-driven surrogates are reduced models obtained on a set of pre-calculated "full physics" simulations, capturing their principal features while being extremely fast to compute. Model reduction of course comes at price of a precision loss; however, this appears justified in presence of large uncertainties regarding the parametrization of geochemical processes. This contribution illustrates the integration of surrogates into the flexible simulation framework currently being developed by the authors' research group [2]. The high level language of choice for obtaining and dealing with surrogate models is R, which profits from state-of-the-art methods for statistical analysis of large simulations ensembles. A stand-alone advective mass transport module was furthermore developed in order to add such capability to any multiphase finite volume hydrodynamic simulator within the simulation framework. We present 2D and 3D case studies benchmarking the performance of surrogates and "full physics" chemistry in scenarios pertaining the assessment of geological subsurface utilization. [1] Jatnieks, J., De Lucia, M., Dransch, D., Sips, M.: "Data-driven surrogate model approach for improving the performance of reactive transport simulations.", Energy Procedia 97, 2016, p. 447-453. [2] Kempka, T., Nakaten, B., De Lucia, M., Nakaten, N., Otto, C., Pohl, M., Chabab [Tillner], E., Kühn, M

  18. Modelling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: Generating scenarios for stream salamanders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe eGirard

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid modelling provides a unique opportunity to study cross-scale relationships in environmental systems by linking together models of global, regional, landscape, and local-scale processes, yet the approach is rarely applied to address conservation and management questions. Here, we demonstrate how a hybrid modelling approach can be used to assess the effect of cross-scale interactions on the survival of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus in response to changes in temperature and water availability induced by climate change at the northern limits of its distribution. To do so, we combine regional climate modelling with a landscape-scale integrated surface-groundwater flow model and an individual-based model of stream salamanders. On average, climate scenarios depict a warmer and wetter environment for the 2050 horizon. The increase in average annual temperature and extended hydrological activity time series in the future, combined with a better synchronization with the salamanders’ reproduction period, result in a significant increase in the long-term population viability of the salamanders. This indicates that climate change may not necessarily limit the survivability of small, stream-dwelling animals in headwater basins located in cold and humid regions. This new knowledge suggests that habitat conservation initiatives for amphibians with large latitudinal distributions in Eastern North America should be prioritized at the northern limits of their ranges to facilitate species migration and persistence in the face of climate change. This example demonstrates how hybrid models can serve as powerful tools for informing management and conservation decisions.

  19. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  20. SYSNET: A salt-site systems network model for scenario assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, M.; Banda, R.S.

    1986-12-01

    This document contains a description of the initial version of the systems model SYSNET. This model is being developed to analyze potentially disruptive scenarios of salt repository systems. Currently the model features a general three-dimensional network topology and simulates the processes of flow, heat transport in rock, heat transport in fluid, brine transport, salt creep dissolution, and precipitation. Of necessity, the SYSNET Code uses relatively simple semi-analytic algorithms so that it may be implemented statistically. Uncertain parameters may be sampled with a compatible preprocessor and then analyzed statistically with a compatible postprocessor. When used in this fashion, SYSNET may be caused to calculate distributions of various performance measures and sensitivities of performance measures to uncertain parameters. The ultimate objective of the SYSNET development is to prioritize data needs by computing sensitivities relative to a particular performance measure, namely the 10,000-year cumulative release, and to evaluate repository systems for compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Standard. 16 refs., 25 figs., 31 tabs

  1. Lake-0: A model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to enter the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to outflow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the bottom sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree 21 minute N, 03 degree 00 minute W at 65 m. asl.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (54 degree 21 minute 5'N, 03 degree, 18 minute W at 230 m. asl.)

  2. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-07-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs.

  3. LAKE-0: a model for the simulation of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Olivares, A.; Aguero, A.; Pinedo, P.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents documentation and a user's manual for the program LAKE-0, a mathematical model of nuclides transfer in lake scenarios. Mathematical equations and physical principles used to develop the code are presented in section 2. The program use is presented in section 3 including input data sets and output data. Section 4 presents two example problems, and some results. The complete program listing including comments is presented in Appendix A. Nuclides are assumed to center the lake via atmospheric deposition and carried by the water runoff and the dragged sediments from the adjacent catchment. The dynamics of the nuclides inside the lake is based in the model proposed by Codell (11) as modified in (5). The removal of concentration from the lake water is due to out flow from the lake and to the transfer of activity to the button sediments. The model has been applied to the Esthwaite Water (54 degree celsius 2 l'N, 03 degree celsius 00'W at 65 m. asi.) in the frame of the VAMP Aquatic Working Group (8) and to Devoke Water (5 21.5'N, 03H8'W at 230 m. asi.). (Author). 13 refs

  4. Reservoir Inflow Prediction under GCM Scenario Downscaled by Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusfan Halik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.

  5. On a mean field game optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in human crowds

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Di Francesco, Marco; Markowich, Peter A.; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2013-01-01

    The understanding of fast exit and evacuation situations in crowd motion research has received a lot of scientific interest in the last decades. Security issues in larger facilities, like shopping malls, sports centers, or festivals necessitate a better understanding of the major driving forces in crowd dynamics. In this paper we present an optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in pedestrian crowds. The model is formulated in the framework of mean field games and based on a parabolic optimal control problem. We consider the case of a large human crowd trying to exit a room as fast as possible. The motion of every pedestrian is determined by minimizing a cost functional, which depends on his/her position and velocity, the overall density of people, and the time to exit. This microscopic setup leads in a mean-field formulation to a nonlinear macroscopic optimal control problem, which raises challenging questions for the analysis and numerical simulations.We discuss different aspects of the mathematical modeling and illustrate them with various computational results. ©2013 IEEE.

  6. On a mean field game optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in human crowds

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2013-12-01

    The understanding of fast exit and evacuation situations in crowd motion research has received a lot of scientific interest in the last decades. Security issues in larger facilities, like shopping malls, sports centers, or festivals necessitate a better understanding of the major driving forces in crowd dynamics. In this paper we present an optimal control approach modeling fast exit scenarios in pedestrian crowds. The model is formulated in the framework of mean field games and based on a parabolic optimal control problem. We consider the case of a large human crowd trying to exit a room as fast as possible. The motion of every pedestrian is determined by minimizing a cost functional, which depends on his/her position and velocity, the overall density of people, and the time to exit. This microscopic setup leads in a mean-field formulation to a nonlinear macroscopic optimal control problem, which raises challenging questions for the analysis and numerical simulations.We discuss different aspects of the mathematical modeling and illustrate them with various computational results. ©2013 IEEE.

  7. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

    2012-02-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1

  8. Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

    2010-05-01

    To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC

  9. Thermophysics modeling of an infrared detector cryochamber for transient operational scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singhal, Mayank; Singhal, Gaurav; Verma, Avinash C.; Kumar, Sushil; Singh, Manmohan

    2016-05-01

    An infrared detector (IR) is essentially a transducer capable of converting radiant energy in the infrared regime into a measurable form. The benefit of infrared radiation is that it facilitates viewing objects in dark or through obscured conditions by detecting the infrared energy emitted by them. One of the most significant applications of IR detector systems is for target acquisition and tracking of projectile systems. IR detectors also find widespread applications in the industry and commercial market. The performance of infrared detector is sensitive to temperatures and performs best when cooled to cryogenic temperatures in the range of nearly 120 K. However, the necessity to operate in such cryogenic regimes increases the complexity in the application of IR detectors. This entails a need for detailed thermophysics analysis to be able to determine the actual cooling load specific to the application and also due to its interaction with the environment. This will enable design of most appropriate cooling methodologies suitable for specific scenarios. The focus of the present work is to develop a robust thermo-physical numerical methodology for predicting IR cryochamber behavior under transient conditions, which is the most critical scenario, taking into account all relevant heat loads including radiation in its original form. The advantage of the developed code against existing commercial software (COMSOL, ANSYS, etc.), is that it is capable of handling gas conduction together with radiation terms effectively, employing a ubiquitous software such as MATLAB. Also, it requires much smaller computational resources and is significantly less time intensive. It provides physically correct results enabling thermal characterization of cryochamber geometry in conjunction with appropriate cooling methodology. The code has been subsequently validated experimentally as the observed cooling characteristics are found to be in close agreement with the results predicted using

  10. A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

  11. Looking for the Perfect Mentor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, Ana Pinheiro; Teixeira-Pinto, Cristina; Veríssimo, Rafaela; Vilas-Boas, Andreia; Firmino-Machado, João

    2015-01-01

    The authors established the profile of the Internal Medicine clinical teachers in Portugal aiming to define a future interventional strategy plan as adequate as possible to the target group and to the problems identified by the residents. Observational, transversal, analytic study. An online anonymous questionnaire was defined, evaluating the demographic characteristics of the clinical teachers, their path in Internal Medicine and their involvement in the residents learning process. We collected 213 valid questionnaires, making for an estimated response rate of 28.4%. Median global satisfaction with the clinical teacher was 4.52 (± 1.33 points) and the classification of the relationship between resident and clinical teacher was 4.86 ± 1.04 points. The perfect clinical teacher is defined by high standards of dedication and responsibility (4.9 ± 1.37 points), practical (4.8 ± 1.12 points) and theoretical skills (4.8 ± 1.07 points). The multiple linear regression model allowed to determine predictors of the residentâs satisfaction with their clinical teacher, justifying 82,5% of the variation of satisfaction with the clinical teacher (R2 = 0.83; R2 a = 0.82). Postgraduate medical education consists of an interaction between several areas of knowledge and intervening variables in the learning process having the clinical teacher in the central role. Overall, the pedagogical abilities were the most valued by the Internal Medicine residents regarding their clinical teacher, as determinants of a quality residentship. This study demonstrates the critical relevance of the clinical teacher in the satisfaction of residents with their residentship. The established multiple linear regression model highlights the impact of the clinical and pedagogical relantionship with the clinical teacher in a relevant increase in the satisfaction with the latter.

  12. Nuclear electricity and Canada's domestic response to the Kyoto Protocol: modeling the economics of alternative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanudia, A.; Loulou, R.; Morrison, R.; Pendergast, D.

    2001-03-01

    Canada's National Climate Change Process has undertaken extensive analysis of the implications of implementing the greenhouse gas reduction commitments of the Kyoto Protocol. The results of work undertaken by the Issue Tables are documented on the National Climate Change Process Internet World Wide Web site. The final reports from the Analysis and Modeling Group have been interpreted by some as evidence that nuclear energy has no role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Canada as it is uneconomic. Yet nuclear energy is a proven means of generating electricity in Canada that does not emit greenhouse gases and that can be economic under a range of circumstances. This paper reviews the analysis and modeling work to establish the reasons for this apparent anomaly. It turns out that modeling of nuclear electricity production is highly constrained by some of the modeling input assumptions initiated with the modeling work of the Electricity Table. These constraints were subsequently carried through to modeling of the entire Canadian economy. The constraints are derived from consideration of historical political, social and economic limitations on nuclear energy deployment and development, which may be overcome in a greenhouse gas constrained Canada. These constraints, which were imposed on decision and construction time, are not technical in nature and do not realistically reflect newer technology. A key modeling scenario is re-evaluated to consider the effect of a shorter decision time and to reflect current nuclear industry capability with respect to construction time. We also take into account revised input parameters to account for a reduced capital cost system which is the goal of the CANDU designer. These changes result in the model choosing more nuclear energy as a least cost source of electricity. The increase in nuclear electricity is substantial for the scenarios that investigate the role of reduced capital cost nuclear power plant systems. The

  13. Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

    2016-04-01

    The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

  14. Perfect secure domination in graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Divya Rashmi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Let $G=(V,E$ be a graph. A subset $S$ of $V$ is a dominating set of $G$ if every vertex in $Vsetminus  S$ is adjacent to a vertex in $S.$ A dominating set $S$ is called a secure dominating set if for each $vin Vsetminus S$ there exists $uin S$ such that $v$ is adjacent to $u$ and $S_1=(Ssetminus{u}cup {v}$ is a dominating set. If further the vertex $uin S$ is unique, then $S$ is called a perfect secure dominating set. The minimum cardinality of a perfect secure dominating set of $G$ is called the perfect  secure domination number of $G$ and is denoted by $gamma_{ps}(G.$ In this paper we initiate a study of this parameter and present several basic results.

  15. A model of negotiation scenarios based on time, relevance andcontrol used to define advantageous positions in a negotiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Guillermo Rojas Altamirano

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Models that apply to negotiation are based on different perspectives that range from the relationship between the actors, game theory or the steps in a procedure. This research proposes a model of negotiation scenarios that considers three factors (time, relevance and control, which are displayed as the most important in a negotiation. These factors interact with each other and create different scenarios for each of the actors involved in a negotiation. The proposed model not only facilitates the creation of a negotiation strategy but also an ideal choice of effective tactics.

  16. Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

    2018-01-24

    Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

  17. From garbage to perfection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuomi, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the development of growing markets for thermoelectric devices which depends upon improving the performance of the Peltier effect alloys. Breaking out of the specialty niches requires doubling present figures of merit, Z, of commercial alloys though each incremental gain potentially opens additional specialty niches. The alloys are polycomponent, heavily doped, N and P type semiconductors. Optimization to the highest Z's requires controlling bulk phase interactions of phase diagram, compositional, crystal growth, and processing variables influencing the imperfection structures impacting on alloy quality. From the first, the system complexity needs recognition so the performance optimizing variables become clearly identified. This is crucial to commercial production. The (Bi,Sb) 2 (Te,Se) 3 provide both N and P type alloy model systems useful in understanding the general challenge of performance optimization. Illustrations of the imperfection structural chemical limitations on attainable performance by varied technologies are given. In seeking other superior performance alloys the experimental designs for exploratory research need immediately to address the identification of the dominating imperfection variables in order to recognize quickly the potentials present

  18. Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible

  19. Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae under Future Climate Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zuliani

    Full Text Available Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA and south-central Alberta (Canada between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040 and 2050 (2041-2060. Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors. Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and

  20. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  2. World Energy Scenarios 2050: Impact of the Energy Governance Models to the Future of the European Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kisel, E.

    2014-01-01

    World Energy Council has explored the impact of two extreme governance models of energy sector to the global economic and climate developments. Scenario 'Jazz' describes the world, where investments in the energy markets are made by the companies on the purely economic basis. Scenario 'Symphony' describes the world, where decisions about the energy investments are made by the governments. It appears that in case of Scenario 'Jazz' we would reach lower energy prices, but it would also bring along higher and wider consumption of energy, and much higher environmental impact. In case of Scenario 'Symphony' energy prices would be somewhat higher, but environmental and energy efficiency would deliver better results, and there will be more energy-poor people around the world. It can also be observed, that resulting energy mixes of these two scenarios are very different. When Scenario 'Jazz' would leave the share of fossil fuels nearly to the current levels, then Scenario 'Symphony' supports strongly development of Solar and Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Sequestration Technologies. The modelling was also made separately for different regions of the world, the results for Europe can be observed from the report as well. This provides a fruit for thought about the role of the governments in the implementation of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Strategy. The presentation would describe shortly the methodology of the study, clarifies the assumptions of the scenarios and highlights the main outcomes of the study in for the world and for European energy sector. (author).

  3. Realization of a scenario with two relaxation rates in the Hubbard Falicov-Kimball model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barman, H.; Laad, M. S.; Hassan, S. R.

    2018-02-01

    A single transport relaxation rate governs the decay of both longitudinal and Hall currents in Landau Fermi liquids (FL). Breakdown of this fundamental feature, first observed in two-dimensional cuprates and subsequently in other three-dimensional correlated systems close to the Mott metal-insulator transition, played a pivotal role in emergence of a non-FL (NFL) paradigm in higher dimensions D (>1 ) . Motivated hereby, we explore the emergence of this "two relaxation rates" scenario in the Hubbard Falicov-Kimball model (HFKM) using the dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT). Specializing to D =3 , we find, beyond a critical Falicov-Kimball (FK) interaction, that two distinct relaxation rates governing distinct temperature (T ) dependence of the longitudinal and Hall currents naturally emerges in the NFL metal. Our results show good accord with the experiment in V2 -yO3 near the metal-to-insulator transition (MIT). We rationalize this surprising finding by an analytical analysis of the structure of charge and spin Hamiltonians in the underlying impurity problem, specifically through a bosonization method applied to the Wolff model and connecting it to the x-ray edge problem.

  4. Characterisation, modelling and control of advanced scenarios in the european tokamak jet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tresset, G.

    2002-01-01

    The advanced scenarios, developed for less than ten years with the internal transport barriers and the control of current profile, give rise to a 'new deal' for the tokamak as a future thermonuclear controlled fusion reactor. The Joint European Torus (JET) in United Kingdom is presently the most powerful device in terms of fusion power and it has allowed to acquire a great experience in these improved confinement regimes. The reduction of turbulent transport, considered now as closely linked to the shape of current profile optimised for instance by lower hybrid current drive or the self-generated bootstrap current, can be characterised by a dimensionless criterion. Most of useful information related to the transport barriers are thus available. Large database analysis and real time plasma control are envisaged as attractive applications. The so-called 'S'-shaped transport models exhibit some interesting properties in fair agreement with the experiments, while the non-linear multivariate dependencies of thermal diffusivity can be approximated by a neural network, suggesting a new approach for transport investigation and modelling. Finally, the first experimental demonstrations of real time control of internal transport barriers and current profile have been performed on JET. Sophisticated feedback algorithms have been proposed and are being numerically tested to achieve steady-state and efficient plasmas. (author)

  5. Study of impurity effects on CFETR steady-state scenario by self-consistent integrated modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Nan; Chan, Vincent S.; Jian, Xiang; Li, Guoqiang; Chen, Jiale; Gao, Xiang; Shi, Shengyu; Kong, Defeng; Liu, Xiaoju; Mao, Shifeng; Xu, Guoliang

    2017-12-01

    Impurity effects on fusion performance of China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) due to extrinsic seeding are investigated. An integrated 1.5D modeling workflow evolves plasma equilibrium and all transport channels to steady state. The one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework is used to couple the transport solver, MHD equilibrium solver, and source and sink calculations. A self-consistent impurity profile constructed using a steady-state background plasma, which satisfies quasi-neutrality and true steady state, is presented for the first time. Studies are performed based on an optimized fully non-inductive scenario with varying concentrations of Argon (Ar) seeding. It is found that fusion performance improves before dropping off with increasing {{Z}\\text{eff}} , while the confinement remains at high level. Further analysis of transport for these plasmas shows that low-k ion temperature gradient modes dominate the turbulence. The decrease in linear growth rate and resultant fluxes of all channels with increasing {{Z}\\text{eff}} can be traced to impurity profile change by transport. The improvement in confinement levels off at higher {{Z}\\text{eff}} . Over the regime of study there is a competition between the suppressed transport and increasing radiation that leads to a peak in the fusion performance at {{Z}\\text{eff}} (~2.78 for CFETR). Extrinsic impurity seeding to control divertor heat load will need to be optimized around this value for best fusion performance.

  6. Fabric-skin models to assess infection transfer for impetigo contagiosa in a kindergarten scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardts, A; Henze, S V; Bockmühl, D; Höfer, D

    2015-06-01

    Children in community bodies like kindergartens are predisposed to suffer from impetigo. To consider important measures for infection prevention, direct and indirect transmission routes of pathogens must be revealed. Therefore, we studied the role of skin and fabrics in the spread of the impetigo pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and the strain Streptococcus equi (surrogate to Streptococcus pyogenes) in order to assess infection transfer in realistic scenarios. The transmission of test strains was studied with standardized fabric-skin models using a technical artificial skin and fabrics of different fiber types commonly occurring in German kindergartens. In synthetic pus, both test strains persisted on artificial skin and fabrics for at least 4 h. Friction enhanced transfer, depending on the fiber type or fabric construction. In a skin-to-skin setup, the total transfer was higher than via fabrics and no decrease in the transmission rates from donor to recipients could be observed after successive direct skin contacts. Children in kindergartens may be at risk of transmission for impetigo pathogens, especially via direct skin contact, but also by the joint use of fabrics, like towels or handicraft materials. Fabric-skin models used in this study enable further insight into the transmission factors for skin infections on the basis of a practical approach.

  7. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics andAdvanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

  8. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics and Advanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

  9. Strategies of modeling the cognitive tasks of human operators for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheon, Se Woo; Sur, Sang Moon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jeong Wun

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the development strategies of cognitive task network modeling for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms. Task network modeling is used to provide useful predictions of operator's performance times and error rates, based upon plant procedures and/or control room changes. Two accident scenarios, small-break loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), are selected for task simulation. To obtain the input data for the model, task elements are extracted by the task analysis of emergency operating procedures. The input data include task performance time, communication ink, panel location, component operating mode, and data for performance shaping factors (PSFs). Operator's verbs are categorized according to the elements of cognitive behavior. The simulation of the task network for the small-break LOCA scenario is presented in this paper. (Author)

  10. Regional groundwater flow model for a glaciation scenario. Simpevarp subarea - version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquet, O.; Siegel, P.

    2006-10-01

    A groundwater flow model (glaciation model) was developed at a regional scale in order to study long term transient effects related to a glaciation scenario likely to occur in response to climatic changes. Conceptually the glaciation model was based on the regional model of Simpevarp and was then extended to a mega-regional scale (of several hundred kilometres) in order to account for the effects of the ice sheet. These effects were modelled using transient boundary conditions provided by a dynamic ice sheet model describing the phases of glacial build-up, glacial completeness and glacial retreat needed for the glaciation scenario. The results demonstrate the strong impact of the ice sheet on the flow field, in particular during the phases of the build-up and the retreat of the ice sheet. These phases last for several thousand years and may cause large amounts of melt water to reach the level of the repository and below. The highest fluxes of melt water are located in the vicinity of the ice margin. As the ice sheet approaches the repository location, the advective effects gain dominance over diffusive effects in the flow field. In particular, up-coning effects are likely to occur at the margin of the ice sheet leading to potential increases in salinity at repository level. For the base case, the entire salinity field of the model is almost completely flushed out at the end of the glaciation period. The flow patterns are strongly governed by the location of the conductive features in the subglacial layer. The influence of these glacial features is essential for the salinity distribution as is their impact on the flow trajectories and, therefore, on the resulting performance measures. Travel times and F-factor were calculated using the method of particle tracking. Glacial effects cause major consequences on the results. In particular, average travel times from the repository to the surface are below 10 a during phases of glacial build-up and retreat. In comparison

  11. Regional groundwater flow model for a glaciation scenario. Simpevarp subarea - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaquet, O.; Siegel, P. [Colenco Power Engineering Ltd, Baden-Daettwil (Switzerland)

    2006-10-15

    A groundwater flow model (glaciation model) was developed at a regional scale in order to study long term transient effects related to a glaciation scenario likely to occur in response to climatic changes. Conceptually the glaciation model was based on the regional model of Simpevarp and was then extended to a mega-regional scale (of several hundred kilometres) in order to account for the effects of the ice sheet. These effects were modelled using transient boundary conditions provided by a dynamic ice sheet model describing the phases of glacial build-up, glacial completeness and glacial retreat needed for the glaciation scenario. The results demonstrate the strong impact of the ice sheet on the flow field, in particular during the phases of the build-up and the retreat of the ice sheet. These phases last for several thousand years and may cause large amounts of melt water to reach the level of the repository and below. The highest fluxes of melt water are located in the vicinity of the ice margin. As the ice sheet approaches the repository location, the advective effects gain dominance over diffusive effects in the flow field. In particular, up-coning effects are likely to occur at the margin of the ice sheet leading to potential increases in salinity at repository level. For the base case, the entire salinity field of the model is almost completely flushed out at the end of the glaciation period. The flow patterns are strongly governed by the location of the conductive features in the subglacial layer. The influence of these glacial features is essential for the salinity distribution as is their impact on the flow trajectories and, therefore, on the resulting performance measures. Travel times and F-factor were calculated using the method of particle tracking. Glacial effects cause major consequences on the results. In particular, average travel times from the repository to the surface are below 10 a during phases of glacial build-up and retreat. In comparison

  12. Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

  13. Radiological scenario modeling using the Hotspot code and potential financial impact of treatment of radiation induced cancer to the public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de

    2015-01-01

    The work aims to develop a methodology that is able to estimate the financial impact in a radiological emergency events, considering the radiation induced cancer, particularly leukemia. Considering a RDD - Radiological Dispersive Device, consisting of explosives and cesium-137 as radioactive material, a scenario building on the Rio de Janeiro was modeled. The convergence of a risk modeling platform (HotSpot 3.0), the analysis of excess relative risks for humans (BEIR V-Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation V), considering scenarios composed of contaminated areas, are secondary goals

  14. Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario fol......-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context....

  15. Environmental assessment of low-organic waste landfill scenarios by means of life-cycle assessment modelling (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manfredi, Simone; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Scharff, H.

    2010-01-01

    for in the life-cycle impact assessment calculation, the small gas generation in low-organic waste landfills reduced the actual potential for energy generation and therefore the environmental savings obtained were reduced proportionally. Groundwater pollution from input of leachate was also evaluated and the WHO......The environmental performance of two low-organic waste landfill scenarios ('low-organic-energy' and 'low-organic-flare') was developed and compared with two household waste landfill scenarios ('household-energy' and 'household-flare') by means of LCA-modelling. The LCA-modelling was made for 1...

  16. Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

    2012-07-01

    This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

  17. Comparing different methods to model scenarios of future glacier change for the entire Swiss Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linsbauer, A.; Paul, F.; Haeberli, W.

    2012-04-01

    There is general agreement that observed climate change already has strong impacts on the cryosphere. The rapid shrinkage of glaciers during the past two decades as observed in many mountain ranges globally and in particular in the Alps, are impressive confirmations of a changed climate. With the expected future temperature increase glacier shrinkage will likely further accelerate and their role as an important water resource more and more diminish. To determine the future contribution of glaciers to run-off with hydrological models, the change in glacier area and/or volume must be considered. As these models operate at regional scales, simplified approaches to model the future development of all glaciers in a mountain range need to be applied. In this study we have compared different simplified approaches to model the area and volume evolution of all glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century according to given climate change scenarios. One approach is based on an upward shift of the ELA (by 150 m per degree temperature increase) and the assumption that the glacier extent will shrink until the smaller accumulation area covers again 60% of the total glacier area. A second approach is based on observed elevation changes between 1985 and 2000 as derived from DEM differencing for all glaciers in Switzerland. With a related elevation-dependent parameterization of glacier thickness change and a modelled glacier thickness distribution, the 15-year trends in observed thickness loss are extrapolated into the future with glacier area loss taking place when thickness becomes zero. The models show an overall glacier area reduction between 60-80% until 2100 with some ice remaining at the highest elevations. However, compared to the ongoing temperature increase and considering that several reinforcement feedbacks (albedo lowering, lake formation) are not accounted for, the real area loss might even be stronger. Uncertainties in the modelled glacier thickness have only a

  18. Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

    2017-04-18

    Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

  19. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  20. Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright

  1. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  2. System Dynamics based Dengue modeling environment to simulate evolution of Dengue infection under different climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, R.; Khan, R.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

    2017-12-01

    Vector borne infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya remain a public health threat. An estimate of the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that about 2.5 billion people, representing ca. 40% of human population,are at increased risk of dengue; with more than 100 million infection cases every year. Vector-borne infections cannot be eradicated since disease causing pathogens survive in the environment. Over the last few decades dengue infection has been reported in more than 100 countries and is expanding geographically. Female Ae. Aegypti mosquito, the daytime active and a major vector for dengue virus, is associated with urban population density and regional climatic processes. However, mathematical quantification of relationships on abundance of vectors and climatic processes remain a challenge, particularly in regions where such data are not routinely collected. Here, using system dynamics based feedback mechanism, an algorithm integrating knowledge from entomological, meteorological and epidemiological processes is developed that has potential to provide ensemble simulations on risk of occurrence of dengue infection in human population. Using dataset from satellite remote sensing, the algorithm was calibrated and validated using actual dengue case data of Iquitos, Peru. We will show results on model capabilities in capturing initiation and peak in the observed time series. In addition, results from several simulation scenarios under different climatic conditions will be discussed.

  3. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  4. Global transportation scenarios in the multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muehlich, P.; Hamacher, T.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of the transportation sector on the role of fusion power in the energy system of the 21st century. Key indicators in this context are global passenger and freight transportation activities, consumption levels of fuels used for transportation purposes, the electricity generation mix and greenhouse gas emissions. These quantities are calculated by means of the global multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy system model. For the present study a new transportation module has been linked to the EFDA-TIMES framework in order to arrive at a consistent projection of future transportation demands. Results are discussed implying various global energy scenarios including assumed crossovers of road transportation activities towards hydrogen or electricity infrastructures and atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization levels at 550 ppm and 450 ppm. Our results show that the penetration of fusion power plants is only slightly sensitive to transportation fuel choices but depends strongly on assumed climate policies. In the most stringent case considered here the contribution of electricity produced by fusion power plants can become as large as about 50% at the end of the 21st century. This statement, however, is still of preliminary nature as the EFDA-TIMES project has not yet reached a final status.

  5. a Novel Methodology for Developing Inundation Maps Under Climate Change Scenarios Using One-Dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.; Raghavan, V. S.; Liew, S. C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is expected to cause increases in extreme climatic events such as heavy rainstorms and rising tidal level. Heavy rainstorms are known to be serious causes of flooding problems in big cities. Thus, high density residential and commercial areas along the rivers are facing risks of being flooded. For that reason, inundated area determination is now being considered as one of the most important areas of research focus in flood forecasting. In such a context, this paper presents the development of a floodmap in determining flood-prone areas and its volumes. The areas and volumes of flood are computed by the inundated level using the existing digital elevation model (DEM) of a hypothetical catchment chosen for study. The study focuses on the application of Flood Early Warning System (Delft — FEWS, Deltares), which is designated to work with the SOBEK (Delft) to simulate the extent of stormwater on the ground surface. The results from FEWS consist of time-series of inundation maps in Image file format (PNG) and ASCII format, which are subsequently imported to ArcGIS for further calculations. In addition, FEWS results provide options to export the video clip of water spreading out over the catchment. Consequently, inundated area and volume will be determined by the water level on the ground. Final floodmap is displayed in colors created by ArcGIS. Various flood map results corresponding to climate change scenarios will be displayed in the main part of the paper.

  6. Perfect sequences over the real quaternions

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov, Oleg

    2017-01-01

    In this Thesis, perfect sequences over the real quaternions are first considered. Definitions for the right and left periodic autocorrelation functions are given, and right and left perfect sequences introduced. It is shown that the right (left) perfection of any sequence implies the left (right) perfection, so concepts of right and left perfect sequences over the real quaternions are equivalent. Unitary transformations of the quaternion space ℍ are then considered. Using the equivalence of t...

  7. Characterisation, modelling and control of advanced scenarios in the european tokamak jet; Caracterisation, modelisation et controle des scenarios avances dans le tokamak europeen jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tresset, G

    2002-09-26

    The advanced scenarios, developed for less than ten years with the internal transport barriers and the control of current profile, give rise to a 'new deal' for the tokamak as a future thermonuclear controlled fusion reactor. The Joint European Torus (JET) in United Kingdom is presently the most powerful device in terms of fusion power and it has allowed to acquire a great experience in these improved confinement regimes. The reduction of turbulent transport, considered now as closely linked to the shape of current profile optimised for instance by lower hybrid current drive or the self-generated bootstrap current, can be characterised by a dimensionless criterion. Most of useful information related to the transport barriers are thus available. Large database analysis and real time plasma control are envisaged as attractive applications. The so-called 'S'-shaped transport models exhibit some interesting properties in fair agreement with the experiments, while the non-linear multivariate dependencies of thermal diffusivity can be approximated by a neural network, suggesting a new approach for transport investigation and modelling. Finally, the first experimental demonstrations of real time control of internal transport barriers and current profile have been performed on JET. Sophisticated feedback algorithms have been proposed and are being numerically tested to achieve steady-state and efficient plasmas. (author)

  8. Characterisation, modelling and control of advanced scenarios in the european tokamak jet; Caracterisation, modelisation et controle des scenarios avances dans le tokamak europeen jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tresset, G

    2002-09-26

    The advanced scenarios, developed for less than ten years with the internal transport barriers and the control of current profile, give rise to a 'new deal' for the tokamak as a future thermonuclear controlled fusion reactor. The Joint European Torus (JET) in United Kingdom is presently the most powerful device in terms of fusion power and it has allowed to acquire a great experience in these improved confinement regimes. The reduction of turbulent transport, considered now as closely linked to the shape of current profile optimised for instance by lower hybrid current drive or the self-generated bootstrap current, can be characterised by a dimensionless criterion. Most of useful information related to the transport barriers are thus available. Large database analysis and real time plasma control are envisaged as attractive applications. The so-called 'S'-shaped transport models exhibit some interesting properties in fair agreement with the experiments, while the non-linear multivariate dependencies of thermal diffusivity can be approximated by a neural network, suggesting a new approach for transport investigation and modelling. Finally, the first experimental demonstrations of real time control of internal transport barriers and current profile have been performed on JET. Sophisticated feedback algorithms have been proposed and are being numerically tested to achieve steady-state and efficient plasmas. (author)

  9. Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

  10. Beaconless Georouting Under The Spotlight: Practical Link Models and Application Scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Bader, Ahmed; Abed-Meraim, Karim; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2015-01-01

    practical application scenarios. Furthermore, beaconless georouting protocols have been studied in literature assuming equal communication ranges for the data and control packets. In reality, this is not true since the communication range is actually a

  11. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirschi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern

  12. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Noncommunicable disease (NCD scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.

  13. Title:Evaluation of Optimal Water Allocation Scenarios for Bar River of NeishabourUsing WEAP Model Under A2 Climatic Changes Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Ghandhari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The rapid population growth in Iran and the corresponding increases in water demands, including drinking water, industry, agriculture and urban development and existing constraints necessitate optimal scheduling necessity in use of this crucial source. Furthermore, the phenomenon of climate change as a major challenge for humanity can be considered in future periods. Climate change is caused by human activity have also been identified as significant causes of recent climate change, referred to as "global warming". Climate change indicates an unusual change in the Earth's atmosphere and climate consequences of the different parts of planet Earth. Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions. A Warmer climate exacerbates the hydrologic cycle, altering precipitation, magnitude and timing of runoff. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on water consumption and demand in Bar river basin of Neighbor. Climate change affects precipitation and temperature patterns and hence, may alter on water requirements and demand at three sectors; agriculture, industry and urban water. Materials and Methods: At present, Global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. AOGCMs models represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalize as many processes as possible. These models are based on physical laws that are provided by mathematical relations. AOGCMs models used for climate studies and climate forecast are run at coarse spatial resolution and are unable to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as clouds and topography. As a result AOGCMs output cannot be used for local impact studies. Therefore, downscaling methods were developed to obtain local-scale weather and climate, particularly at

  14. The energy policy turnaround and the respective models. The prognostic ability of energy scenarios; Die Energiewende und ihre Modelle. Was uns Energieszenarien sagen koennen - und was nicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dieckhoff, Christian; Leuschner, Anna (eds.)

    2016-07-01

    The booklet on energy scenarios in the frame of the energy policy turnaround includes the following contributions: How many scenarios do we need? The justification of relevant possibilities using idealized models; the underestimation of the climatic change; the burden of the possible achievable; wrong conclusions in the argumentation with scenarios; epistemic meta-analysis.

  15. Explaining evolution via constrained persistent perfect phylogeny

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background The perfect phylogeny is an often used model in phylogenetics since it provides an efficient basic procedure for representing the evolution of genomic binary characters in several frameworks, such as for example in haplotype inference. The model, which is conceptually the simplest, is based on the infinite sites assumption, that is no character can mutate more than once in the whole tree. A main open problem regarding the model is finding generalizations that retain the computational tractability of the original model but are more flexible in modeling biological data when the infinite site assumption is violated because of e.g. back mutations. A special case of back mutations that has been considered in the study of the evolution of protein domains (where a domain is acquired and then lost) is persistency, that is the fact that a character is allowed to return back to the ancestral state. In this model characters can be gained and lost at most once. In this paper we consider the computational problem of explaining binary data by the Persistent Perfect Phylogeny model (referred as PPP) and for this purpose we investigate the problem of reconstructing an evolution where some constraints are imposed on the paths of the tree. Results We define a natural generalization of the PPP problem obtained by requiring that for some pairs (character, species), neither the species nor any of its ancestors can have the character. In other words, some characters cannot be persistent for some species. This new problem is called Constrained PPP (CPPP). Based on a graph formulation of the CPPP problem, we are able to provide a polynomial time solution for the CPPP problem for matrices whose conflict graph has no edges. Using this result, we develop a parameterized algorithm for solving the CPPP problem where the parameter is the number of characters. Conclusions A preliminary experimental analysis shows that the constrained persistent perfect phylogeny model allows to

  16. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  17. Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, I.

    2006-01-01

    Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

  18. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  19. A DYNAMIC PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED TOXICOKINETIC (DPBTK) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A GENERAL PHYSIOLOGICAL AND TOXICOKINETIC (GPAT) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS. E M Kenyon1, T Colemen2, C R Eklund1 and V A Benignus3. 1U.S. EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD, PKB, RTP, NC, USA; 2Biological Simulators, Inc., Jackson MS, USA, 3U.S. EP...

  20. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, M.T.H. van; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Harpham, C.; Broers, H.P.; Fowler, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations

  1. SysML Model of the Pick and Place Unit for Papyrus UML: Scenario Sc4b

    OpenAIRE

    Vogel-Heuser, Birgit; Folmer, Jens; Legat, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    The Pick and Place Unit (PPU) is a bench-scale lab demonstrator which is open to the research community to investigate a variety of different topics. To conduct research on the evolution of production automation systems, a variety of different manifestations of the PPU (referred to as scenarios) were developed. A documentation of the PPU and its scenarios is publicly available at www.ppu-demonstrator.org. In this zipped file, a SysML model consisting of state charts and block definition diagr...

  2. Visible light broadband perfect absorbers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia, X. L.; Meng, Q. X.; Yuan, C. X.; Zhou, Z. X.; Wang, X. O., E-mail: wxo@hit.edu.cn [School of Science, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China)

    2016-03-15

    The visible light broadband perfect absorbers based on the silver (Ag) nano elliptical disks and holes array are studied using finite difference time domain simulations. The semiconducting indium silicon dioxide thin film is introduced as the space layer in this sandwiched structure. Utilizing the asymmetrical geometry of the structures, polarization sensitivity for transverse electric wave (TE)/transverse magnetic wave (TM) and left circular polarization wave (LCP)/right circular polarization wave (RCP) of the broadband absorption are gained. The absorbers with Ag nano disks and holes array show several peaks absorbance of 100% by numerical simulation. These simple and flexible perfect absorbers are particularly desirable for various potential applications including the solar energy absorber.

  3. Looking beyond the perfect lens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wee, W H; Pendry, J B

    2010-01-01

    The holy grail of imaging is the ability to see through anything. From the conservation of energy, we can easily see that to see through a lossy material would require lenses with gain. The aim of this paper therefore is to propose a simple scheme by which we can construct a general perfect lens, with gain-one that can restore both the phases and amplitudes of near and far fields.

  4. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  5. Numerical modeling of Etla Valley aquifer, Oax., Mexico: Evolution and remediation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores-Marquez, E. L; Martinez-Serrano, R. G; Chavez, R. E; Crusillo, Y [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Jimenez, G [Facultad de Ingenieria, Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, Puebla (Mexico); Camops-Enriquez, O [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    2008-01-15

    Short-term evolution (for 2001, 2005 and 2015) for the shallow aquifer of Etla Valley, Oaxaca, southern Mexico, was simulated based in a 3D hydrological model elaborated from the available geological, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic parameters. The numerical simulations were based on Visual MODFLOW code. These simulations indicate that, if the actual extraction regime is maintained, the drawdown of the potentiometric surface will get worse to the SE of the study area (i. e. beneath Oaxaca city). The prevailing aquifer flow direction favors the ground water pollution by fertilizers and leakage from the sewage network (dumped to the Atoyac river). According to the numerical simulation, remediation of this situation is possible if the wells located in the neighborhood of Oaxaca City are relocated at the recharge zones (i. e. at the feet from Sierra de Juarez). This remediation scenario will allow a recovery of the drawdown of the potentiometric surface. [Spanish] Se presenta un modelo geohidrologico evolutivo 3D a corto plazo (para los anos 2001, 2005 y 2015) del acuifero somero del Valle de Etla, Oaxaca, sureste de Mexico, basado en los parametros disponibles de geologia, geofisica, geoquimica e hidrologia. Las simulaciones numericas fueron realizadas en Visual MODFLOW. Estas simulaciones indican que, si el actual regimen de extraccion es mantenido, el abatimiento de la superficie potenciometrica puede ser mayor en el SE del area de estudio (i. e. cerca de la ciudad de Oaxaca). La contaminacion por fertilizantes y por las fugas de drenaje es favorecida por la direccion de flujo imperante en el acuifero (vaciandose en el rio Atoyac). De acuerdo a las simulaciones numericas, existe una posible remediacion de este proceso, relocalizando los pozos situados en la ciudad de Oaxaca en las zonas de recarga (i. e. en las faldas de la Sierra de Juarez). Este escenario de remediacion permitiria una recuperacion en el nivel de la superficie potenciometrica.

  6. Caveats on psychological models of sleep and memory: a compass in an overgrown scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conte, Francesca; Ficca, Gianluca

    2013-04-01

    The search for a unitary model of sleep-memory relationships seems still far from accomplished, despite the huge body of data produced in the latest twenty years. So far, inconsistent results have been mainly addressed by parcelling out memory through a continuous refinement of its classification systems, with a major focus on dichotomic distinctions such as the one concerning the declarative vs. procedural memory systems, or the implicit vs. explicit nature of learning. Although this approach has provided a remarkable contribution, it has somehow resulted in an extreme fragmentation of the scenario, where it is even more complex to get a clear picture of the way sleep and memory are connected. This article, starting from a review of the most recent literature on sleep-memory relationships, is intended to provide a compass in this frantically moving landscape. By sorting out the most promising research lines, we highlight some crucial "ongoing" theoretical developments, such as: the rediscovery of the classical notion in psychology of memory that learning has a reconstructive rather than a reproductive nature, with the need of addressing phenomena such as the delicate balance between remembering and forgetting and the integration of different items of knowledge; the growing interest in the role of additional factors influencing memory processes, such as intentionality and learning strategies; the possibility that organizational rather than structural features of sleep are essential to sleep-dependent memory consolidation. We will also discuss how these recent perspectives disclose a number of relevant methodological caveats to be carefully taken into account when conceiving experimental designs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A comprehensive scenario of the thermodynamic anomalies of water using the TIP4P/2005 model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    González, Miguel A. [Departamento Química Física I, Facultad Ciencias Químicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Department of Chemistry, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Valeriani, Chantal [Departamento Química Física I, Facultad Ciencias Químicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Departamento Física Aplicada I, Facultad Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Caupin, Frédéric [Institut Lumière Matière, UMR5306 Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1-CNRS, Université de Lyon, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Abascal, José L. F. [Departamento Química Física I, Facultad Ciencias Químicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2016-08-07

    The striking behavior of water has deserved it to be referred to as an “anomalous” liquid. The water anomalies are greatly amplified in metastable (supercooled and/or stretched) regions. This makes difficult a complete experimental description since, beyond certain limits, the metastable phase necessarily transforms into the stable one. Theoretical interpretation of the water anomalies could then be based on simulation results of well validated water models. But the analysis of the simulations has not yet reached a consensus. In particular, one of the most popular theoretical scenarios—involving the existence of a liquid-liquid critical point (LLCP)—is disputed by several authors. In this work, we propose to use a number of exact thermodynamic relations which may shed light on this issue. Interestingly, these relations may be tested in a region of the phase diagram which is outside the LLCP thus avoiding the problems associated to the coexistence region. The central property connected to other water anomalies is the locus of temperatures at which the density along isobars attain a maximum (TMD line) or a minimum (TmD). We have performed computer simulations to evaluate the TMD and TmD for a successful water model, namely, TIP4P/2005. We have also evaluated the vapor-liquid (VL) spinodal in the region of large negative pressures. The shape of these curves and their connection to the extrema of some response functions, in particular the isothermal compressibility and heat capacity at constant pressure, provides very useful information which may help to elucidate the validity of the theoretical proposals. In this way, we are able to present for the first time a comprehensive scenario of the thermodynamic water anomalies for TIP4P/2005 and their relation to the vapor-liquid spinodal. The overall picture shows a remarkable similarity with the corresponding one for the ST2 water model, for which the existence of a LLCP has been demonstrated in recent years. It

  8. A Study of Universal Thermodynamics in Brane World Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitra, Saugata; Saha, Subhajit; Chakraborty, Subenoy

    2015-01-01

    A study of Universal thermodynamics is done in the framework of RSII brane model and DGP brane scenario. The Universe is chosen as FRW model bounded by apparent or event horizon. Assuming extended Hawking temperature on the horizon, the unified first law is examined for perfect fluid (with constant equation of state) and Modified Chaplygin Gas model. As a result there is a modification of Bekenstein entropy on the horizons. Further the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics and thermodynamical equilibrium are also investigated

  9. Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Shigenao

    2012-01-01

    An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

  10. Operation room tool handling and miscommunication scenarios: an object-process methodology conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachs, Juan P; Frenkel, Boaz; Dori, Dov

    2014-11-01

    Errors in the delivery of medical care are the principal cause of inpatient mortality and morbidity, accounting for around 98,000 deaths in the United States of America (USA) annually. Ineffective team communication, especially in the operation room (OR), is a major root of these errors. This miscommunication can be reduced by analyzing and constructing a conceptual model of communication and miscommunication in the OR. We introduce the principles underlying Object-Process Methodology (OPM)-based modeling of the intricate interactions between the surgeon and the surgical technician while handling surgical instruments in the OR. This model is a software- and hardware-independent description of the agents engaged in communication events, their physical activities, and their interactions. The model enables assessing whether the task-related objectives of the surgical procedure were achieved and completed successfully and what errors can occur during the communication. The facts used to construct the model were gathered from observations of various types of operations miscommunications in the operating room and its outcomes. The model takes advantage of the compact ontology of OPM, which is comprised of stateful objects - things that exist physically or informatically, and processes - things that transform objects by creating them, consuming them or changing their state. The modeled communication modalities are verbal and non-verbal, and errors are modeled as processes that deviate from the "sunny day" scenario. Using OPM refinement mechanism of in-zooming, key processes are drilled into and elaborated, along with the objects that are required as agents or instruments, or objects that these processes transform. The model was developed through an iterative process of observation, modeling, group discussions, and simplification. The model faithfully represents the processes related to tool handling that take place in an OR during an operation. The specification is at

  11. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  12. Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

  13. Integrated Nitrogen and Flow Modelling (INCA) in a Boreal River Basin Dominated by Forestry: Scenarios of Environmental Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rankinen, Katri; Lepistoe, Ahti; Granlund, Kirsti

    2004-01-01

    A new version (v1.7) of the Integrated Nitrogen in CAtchments model(INCA) was applied to the northern boreal Simojoki river basin (3160 km 2 ) in Finland. The INCA model is a semi-distributed, dynamic nitrogen (N) process model which simulates N transport and processes in catchments. The INCA model was applied to model flow and seasonal inorganic N dynamics of the river Simojoki basin over the period 1994-1996, and validated for two more years. Both calibration and validation of the model were successful. The model was able to simulate annual dynamics of inorganic N concentrations in the river. The effects of forest management and atmospheric deposition on inorganic N fluxes to the sea in 2010 were studied. Three scenarios were applied for forestry practices and two for deposition. The effects of forest cutting scenarios and atmospheric deposition scenarios on inorganic N flux to the sea were small. The combination of the maximum technically possible reduction of N deposition and a decrease of 100% in forest cutting and peat mining areas decreased NO 3 - -N flux by 6.0% and NH 4 + -N flux by 3.1%

  14. Scenario Modeling of Thermal Influence from Forest Fire Front on a Coniferous Tree Trunk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranovskiy Nikolay V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario research results of heat transfer and tissue damage in three-layered tree trunk influenced by heat flux from forest fire are presented. The problem is solved in two-dimensional statement in polar coordinates. The typical range of influence parameters (heat flux from forest fire front, trunk radius, coniferous species, air temperature, duration of exposure and distance from fire line is considered. Temperature distributions in different moments of time are obtained. Condition of tree damage by forest fire influence is under consideration in this research. Information summarized using tables with scenario and fire consequences results.

  15. Assessing Orchestrated Simulation Through Modeling to Quantify the Benefits of Unmanned-Teaming in a Tactical ASW Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-01

    be used by the model to create pseudo- random behavior for agents. This process is a critical aspect of the simulation because it allows for the...ORCHESTRATED SIMULATION THROUGH MODELING TO QUANTIFY THE BENEFITS OF UNMANNED–MANNED TEAMING IN A TACTICAL ASW SCENARIO by Preston T. Tilus March...Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE March 2018 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ASSESSING ORCHESTRATED SIMULATION

  16. CONSTRUCTIVE MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF DATA STRUCTURES IN RAM. PART II. CONSTRUCTORS OF SCENARIOS AND ADAPTATION PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Shynkarenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose.The second part of the paper completes presentation of constructive and the productive structures (CPS, modeling adaptation of data structures in memory (RAM. The purpose of the second part in the research is to develop a model of process of adaptation data in a RAM functioning in different hardware and software environments and scenarios of data processing. Methodology. The methodology of mathematical and algorithmic constructionism was applied. In this part of the paper, changes were developed the constructors of scenarios and adaptation processes based on a generalized CPS through its transformational conversions. Constructors are interpreted, specialized CPS. Were highlighted the terminal alphabets of the constructor scenarios in the form of data processing algorithms and the constructor of adaptation – in the form of algorithmic components of the adaptation process. The methodology involves the development of substitution rules that determine the output process of the relevant structures. Findings. In the second part of the paper, system is represented by CPS modeling adaptation data placement in the RAM, namely, constructors of scenarios and of adaptation processes. The result of the implementation of constructor of scenarios is a set of data processing operations in the form of text in the language of programming C#, constructor of the adaptation processes – a process of adaptation, and the result the process of adaptation – the adapted binary code of processing data structures. Originality. For the first time proposed the constructive model of data processing – the scenario that takes into account the order and number of calls to the various elements of data structures and adaptation of data structures to the different hardware and software environments. At the same the placement of data in RAM and processing algorithms are adapted. Constructionism application in modeling allows to link data models and algorithms for

  17. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  18. A Validated Set of MIDAS V5 Task Network Model Scenarios to Evaluate Nextgen Closely Spaced Parallel Operations Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gore, Brian Francis; Hooey, Becky Lee; Haan, Nancy; Socash, Connie; Mahlstedt, Eric; Foyle, David C.

    2013-01-01

    The Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) scenario is a complex, human performance model scenario that tested alternate operator roles and responsibilities to a series of off-nominal operations on approach and landing (see Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013). The model links together the procedures, equipment, crewstation, and external environment to produce predictions of operator performance in response to Next Generation system designs, like those expected in the National Airspaces NextGen concepts. The task analysis that is contained in the present report comes from the task analysis window in the MIDAS software. These tasks link definitions and states for equipment components, environmental features as well as operational contexts. The current task analysis culminated in 3300 tasks that included over 1000 Subject Matter Expert (SME)-vetted, re-usable procedural sets for three critical phases of flight; the Descent, Approach, and Land procedural sets (see Gore et al., 2011 for a description of the development of the tasks included in the model; Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the model, and its results; Hooey, Gore, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the guidelines that were generated from the models results; Gore, Hooey, Foyle, 2012 for a description of the models implementation and its settings). The rollout, after landing checks, taxi to gate and arrive at gate illustrated in Figure 1 were not used in the approach and divert scenarios exercised. The other networks in Figure 1 set up appropriate context settings for the flight deck.The current report presents the models task decomposition from the tophighest level and decomposes it to finer-grained levels. The first task that is completed by the model is to set all of the initial settings for the scenario runs included in the model (network 75 in Figure 1). This initialization process also resets the CAD graphic files contained with MIDAS, as well as the embedded

  19. Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the

  20. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  1. Shipping and shipbuilding scenario evaluations through integration of maritime and macroeconomic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyn, J.F.J.

    2013-01-01

    This research focusses on the use of consistent scenarios to help ship owners, banks and other parties with an interest the maritime business get a better grip on the future. Three levels of detail can be distinguished for the maritime industry. The macroeconomic level is the highest and focusses on

  2. Black hole formation in perfect fluid collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goswami, Rituparno; Joshi, Pankaj S

    2004-01-01

    We construct here a special class of perfect fluid collapse models which generalizes the homogeneous dust collapse solution in order to include nonzero pressures and inhomogeneities into evolution. It is shown that a black hole is necessarily generated as the end product of continued gravitational collapse, rather than a naked singularity. We examine the nature of the central singularity forming as a result of endless collapse and it is shown that no nonspacelike trajectories can escape from the central singularity. Our results provide some insights into how the dynamical collapse works and into the possible formulations of the cosmic censorship hypothesis, which is as yet a major unsolved problem in black hole physics

  3. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc

  4. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  5. Research Article Evaluation of different signal propagation models for a mixed indoor-outdoor scenario using empirical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Artemenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we are choosing a suitable indoor-outdoor propagation model out of the existing models by considering path loss and distance as parameters. A path loss is calculated empirically by placing emitter nodes inside a building. A receiver placed outdoors is represented by a Quadrocopter (QC that receives beacon messages from indoor nodes. As per our analysis, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU model, Stanford University Interim (SUI model, COST-231 Hata model, Green-Obaidat model, Free Space model, Log-Distance Path Loss model and Electronic Communication Committee 33 (ECC-33 models are chosen and evaluated using empirical data collected in a real environment. The aim is to determine if the analytically chosen models fit our scenario by estimating the minimal standard deviation from the empirical data.

  6. Critical phenomena at perfect and non-perfect surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pleimling, M

    2004-01-01

    In the past, perfect surfaces have been shown to yield local critical behaviour that differs from bulk critical behaviour. On the other hand, surface defects, whether they are of natural origin or created artificially, are known to modify local quantities. It is therefore important to clarify whether these defects are relevant or irrelevant for the surface critical behaviour. The purpose of this review is two-fold. In the first part we summarize some of the important results on surface criticality at perfect surfaces. Special attention is thereby paid to new developments such as for example the study of the surface critical behaviour in systems with competing interactions or of surface critical dynamics. In the second part the effect of surface defects (presence of edges, steps, quenched randomness, lines of adatoms, regular geometric patterns) on local critical behaviour in semi-infinite systems and in thin films is discussed in detail. Whereas most of the defects commonly encountered are shown to be irrelevant, some notable exceptions are highlighted. It is shown furthermore that under certain circumstances non-universal local critical behaviour may be observed at surfaces. (topical review)

  7. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  8. Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

    2017-12-01

    Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the

  9. Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

    2018-03-01

    Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

  10. Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-01-01

    Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

  11. The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

    2017-01-01

    State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

  12. Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Coulthard

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade".

    This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50-yr

  13. Plume dispersion in four pine thinning scenarios: development of a simple pheromone dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Peterson; Harold Thistle; Brian Lamb; Gene Allwine; Steve Edburg; Brian Strom

    2010-01-01

    A unique field campaign was conducted in 2004 to examine how changes in stand density may affect dispersion of insect pheromones in forest canopies. Over a l4-day period, 126 tracer tests were performed, and conditions ranged from an unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) canopy through a series of thinning scenarios with basal areas of32.l, 23.0, and 16.1 m2ha-l.ln...

  14. Tungsten transport in JET H-mode plasmas in hybrid scenario, experimental observations and modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Angioni, C.; Mantica, P.; Pütterich, T.; Valisa, M.; Baruzzo, M.; Belli, A.E.; Belo, P.; Casson, F.J.; Challis, C.; Drewelow, P.; Giroud, C.; Hawkes, N.; Hender, T.C.; Hobirk, J.; Koskela, T.; Lauro Taroni, L.; Maggi, C.F.; Mlynář, Jan; Odstrčil, T.; Reinke, M.L.; Romanelli, M.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 54, č. 8 (2014), 083028-083028 ISSN 0029-5515 Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : heavy impurity transport * H-mode hybrid scenario * neoclassical and turbulent transport Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 3.062, year: 2014 http://iopscience.iop.org/0029-5515/54/8/083028/pdf/0029-5515_54_8_083028.pdf

  15. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

  16. Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Jafari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

  17. Beaconless Georouting Under The Spotlight: Practical Link Models and Application Scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Bader, Ahmed

    2015-06-18

    Beaconless georouting has emerged as a viable packetforwarding technique in distributed wireless networks, particularly for applications requiring portability and scalability. In this paper, we focus on fine-tuning and developing the analytical tools associated with the study of beaconless georouting protocols. For instance, they have been traditionally analyzed and simulated from the perspective of a single hop only. However, end-to-end performance analysis is instrumental when considering practical application scenarios. Furthermore, beaconless georouting protocols have been studied in literature assuming equal communication ranges for the data and control packets. In reality, this is not true since the communication range is actually a function of the packet length (among other factors). Control packets are typically much shorter than data packets. As a consequence, a substantial discrepancy exists in practice between their respective communication ranges, causing many data packet drops. Accordingly, we introduce two simple strategies for bridging the gap between the control and data packet communication ranges. Our primary objective in this paper is to construct a realistic analysis describing the end-to-end performance of beaconless georouting protocols. Two flagship protocols are selected in this paper for further investigation. For a better perspective, the two protocols are actually compared to a hypothetical limit case, one which offers optimal energy and latency performance. Finally, we present four different application scenarios. For each scenario, we highlight the georouting protocol which performs the best and discuss the reasons behind it. © 2007-2012 IEEE.

  18. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  19. About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

    2018-02-01

    The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

  20. Towards an Integrated Assessment Model for Tropospheric Ozone-Emission Inventories, Scenarios and Emission-control Options

    OpenAIRE

    Olsthoorn, X.

    1994-01-01

    IIASA intends to extend its RAINS model for addressing the issue of transboundary ozone air pollution. This requires the development of a VOC-emissions module, VOCs being precursors in ozone formation. The module should contain a Europe-wide emission inventory, a submodule for developing emission scenarios and a database of measures for VOC-emission control, including data about control effectiveness and control costs. It is recommended to use the forthcoming CORINAIR90 inventory for construc...

  1. Electric dipole moments of charged leptons in the split fermion scenario in the two Higgs doublet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iltan, E.O.

    2005-01-01

    We predict the charged lepton electric dipole moments in the split fermion scenario in the framework of the two Higgs doublet model. We observe that the numerical value of the muon (tau) electric dipole moment is of the order of the magnitude of 10 -22 e cm (10 -20 e cm) and there is an enhancement in the case of two extra dimensions, especially for the tau lepton electric dipole moment. (orig.)

  2. Path Loss, Shadow Fading, and Line-Of-Sight Probability Models for 5G Urban Macro-Cellular Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Shu; Thomas, Timothy; Rappaport, Theodore S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents key parameters including the line-of-sight (LOS) probability, large-scale path loss, and shadow fading models for the design of future fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban macro-cellular (UMa) scenarios, using the data obtained from propagation...... measurements in Austin, US, and Aalborg, Denmark, at 2, 10, 18, and 38 GHz. A comparison of different LOS probability models is performed for the Aalborg environment. Both single-slope and dual-slope omnidirectional path loss models are investigated to analyze and contrast their root-mean-square (RMS) errors...

  3. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  4. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  5. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1998-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  6. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1997-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  7. Generating perfect fluid spheres in general relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonserm, Petarpa; Visser, Matt; Weinfurtner, Silke

    2005-06-01

    Ever since Karl Schwarzschild’s 1916 discovery of the spacetime geometry describing the interior of a particular idealized general relativistic star—a static spherically symmetric blob of fluid with position-independent density—the general relativity community has continued to devote considerable time and energy to understanding the general-relativistic static perfect fluid sphere. Over the last 90 years a tangle of specific perfect fluid spheres has been discovered, with most of these specific examples seemingly independent from each other. To bring some order to this collection, in this article we develop several new transformation theorems that map perfect fluid spheres into perfect fluid spheres. These transformation theorems sometimes lead to unexpected connections between previously known perfect fluid spheres, sometimes lead to new previously unknown perfect fluid spheres, and in general can be used to develop a systematic way of classifying the set of all perfect fluid spheres.

  8. Generating perfect fluid spheres in general relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonserm, Petarpa; Visser, Matt; Weinfurtner, Silke

    2005-01-01

    Ever since Karl Schwarzschild's 1916 discovery of the spacetime geometry describing the interior of a particular idealized general relativistic star--a static spherically symmetric blob of fluid with position-independent density--the general relativity community has continued to devote considerable time and energy to understanding the general-relativistic static perfect fluid sphere. Over the last 90 years a tangle of specific perfect fluid spheres has been discovered, with most of these specific examples seemingly independent from each other. To bring some order to this collection, in this article we develop several new transformation theorems that map perfect fluid spheres into perfect fluid spheres. These transformation theorems sometimes lead to unexpected connections between previously known perfect fluid spheres, sometimes lead to new previously unknown perfect fluid spheres, and in general can be used to develop a systematic way of classifying the set of all perfect fluid spheres

  9. Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israelyan Musheg

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

  10. Breast milk is conditionally perfect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erick, Miriam

    2018-02-01

    Breast milk is the universal preferred nutrition for the newborn human infant. New mother have been encouraged to exclusively breastfeed by health care professionals and consumer-advocacy forums for years, citing "breast milk is the perfect food". The benefits are numerous and include psychological, convenience, economical, ecological and nutritionally superior. Human milk is a composite of nutritional choices of the mother, commencing in the pre-conceptual era. Events influencing the eventual nutritional profile of breast milk for the neonate start with pre-conceptual dietary habits through pregnancy and finally to postpartum. Food choices do affect the nutritional profile of human breast milk. It is not known who coined the phrase "breast milk is the perfect food" but it is widely prevalent in the literature. While breast milk is highly nutritive, containing important immunological and growth factors, scientific investigation reveals a few short-falls. Overall, human breast milk has been found to be low in certain nutrients in developed countries: vitamin D, iodine, iron, and vitamin K. Additional nutrient deficiencies have been documented in resource-poor countries: vitamin A, vitamin B 12, zinc, and vitamin B 1/thiamin. Given these findings, isn't it more accurate to describe breast milk as "conditionally perfect"? Correcting the impression that breast milk is an inherently, automatically comprehensive enriched product would encourage women who plan to breastfeed an opportunity to concentrate on dietary improvement to optimizes nutrient benefits ultimately to the neonate. The more immediate result would improve pre-conceptual nutritional status. Here, we explore the nutritional status of groups of young women; some of whom will become pregnant and eventually produce breast milk. We will review the available literature profiling vitamin, mineral, protein and caloric content of breast milk. We highlight pre-existing situations needing correction to optimize

  11. Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir I. Abramov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

  12. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

    2012-07-01

    With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

  13. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  14. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  15. The pursuit of perfect packing

    CERN Document Server

    Weaire, Denis

    2000-01-01

    In 1998 Thomas Hales dramatically announced the solution of a problem that has long teased eminent mathematicians: what is the densest possible arrangement of identical spheres? The Pursuit of Perfect Packing recounts the story of this problem and many others that have to do with packing things together. The examples are taken from mathematics, physics, biology, and engineering, including the arrangement of soap bubbles in foam, atoms in a crystal, the architecture of the bee''s honeycomb, and the structure of the Giant''s Causeway. Using an informal style and with key references, the book also includes brief accounts of the lives of many of the scientists who devoted themselves to problems of packing over many centuries, together with wry comments on their efforts. It is an entertaining introduction to the field for both specialists and the more general public.

  16. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  17. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J., E-mail: eduardo.espinosa@ufrgs.br, E-mail: bardo.bodmann@ufrgs.br [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (DENUC/PROMEC/UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear. Programa de Pos Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  18. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  19. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

  20. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  1. Scenarios and business models for mobile network operators utilizing the hybrid use concept of the UHF broadcasting spectrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yrjölä

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores and presents scenarios and business models for mobile network operators (MNOs in the novel hybrid use spectrum sharing concept of the Ultra High Frequency broadcasting spectrum (470-790 MHz used for Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT and Mobile Broadband (MBB. More flexible use of the band could lead to higher efficiency in delivering fast growing and converging MBB, media and TV content to meet changing consumer needs. On one hand, this could be beneficial for broadcasters (BC, e.g., by preserving the spectrum, by providing additional revenues, or by lowering cost of the spectrum and, on the other hand, for MNOs to gain faster access to new potentially lower cost, licensed, below 1GHz spectrum to cope with booming data traffic. As a collaborative benefit, the concept opens up new business opportunities for delivering TV and media content using MBB network with means to introduce this flexibly. This paper highlights the importance of developing sound business models for the new spectrum use concept, as they need to provide clear benefits to the key stakeholders to be adopted in real life. The paper applies a future and action oriented approach to the MBB using the concept to derive scenarios and business models for MNOs for accessing hybrid UHF bands. In order to address the convergence and transformation coming with the concept, business models are first developed for the current situation with separate exclusive spectrum bands. Novel business scenarios are then developed for the introduction of the new flexible hybrid UHF spectrum concept. The created business model indicates that the MNOs could benefit significantly from the new UHF bands, which would enable them to cope with increasing data traffic asymmetry, and to offer differentiation through personalized broadcasting and new media services. Moreover, it could significantly re-shape the business ecosystem around both the broadcasting and the mobile broadband by introducing

  2. Electromagnetic Detection of a Perfect Carpet Cloak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xihang; Gao, Fei; Lin, Xiao; Zhang, Baile

    2015-05-01

    It has been shown that a spherical invisibility cloak originally proposed by Pendry et al. can be electromagnetically detected by shooting a charged particle through it, whose underlying mechanism stems from the asymmetry of transformation optics applied to motions of photons and charges [PRL 103, 243901 (2009)]. However, the conceptual three-dimensional invisibility cloak that exactly follows specifications of transformation optics is formidably difficult to implement, while the simplified cylindrical cloak that has been experimentally realized is inherently visible. On the other hand, the recent carpet cloak model has acquired remarkable experimental development, including a recently demonstrated full-parameter carpet cloak without any approximation in the required constitutive parameters. In this paper, we numerically investigate the electromagnetic radiation from a charged particle passing through a perfect carpet cloak and propose an experimentally verifiable model to demonstrate symmetry breaking of transformation optics.

  3. A simple semi-empirical approach to model thickness of ash-deposits for different eruption scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. González-Mellado

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ash-fall on people, buildings, crops, water resources, and infrastructure depends on several factors such as the thickness of the deposits, grain size distribution and others. Preparedness against tephra falls over large regions around an active volcano requires an understanding of all processes controlling those factors, and a working model capable of predicting at least some of them. However, the complexity of tephra dispersion and sedimentation makes the search of an integral solution an almost unapproachable problem in the absence of highly efficient computing facilities due to the large number of equations and unknown parameters that control the process. An alternative attempt is made here to address the problem of modeling the thickness of ash deposits as a primary impact factor that can be easily communicated to the public and decision-makers. We develop a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of non-compacted deposits produced by an explosive eruption around a volcano in the distance range 4–150 km from the eruptive source.

    The model was elaborated from the analysis of the geometric distribution of deposit thickness of 14 world-wide well-documented eruptions. The model was initially developed to depict deposits of potential eruptions of Popocatépetl and Colima volcanoes in México, but it can be applied to any volcano. It has been designed to provide planners and Civil Protection authorities of an accurate perception of the ash-fall deposit thickness that may be expected for different eruption scenarios. The model needs to be fed with a few easy-to-obtain parameters, namely, height of the eruptive column, duration of the explosive phase, and wind speed and direction, and its simplicity allows it to run in any platform, including a personal computers and even a notebook. The results may be represented as tables, two dimensional thickness-distance plots, or isopach maps using any available

  4. Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Martínez-Vega

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP. We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19 around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha. The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20. Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI, greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ. In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on

  5. Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-12-18

    Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

  6. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  7. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  8. Dose modelling for 'dirty bomb' scenarios - an ARGOS DSS feature under development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Mikkelsen, Torben; Astrup, Poul

    number of people could become directly affected. Current versions of European decision support systems are inapplicable in this context, as they do not take into account the specific characteristics of ’dirty bomb’ scenarios, with respect to radionuclides (dose conversion factors), initial......The world of today is not only facing the risk of accidents (e.g., in nuclear facilities, as considered in the EURANOS project). Also other types of emergencies, notably involving radiological terrorism, pose a threat. Acts of terror would be most likely to take place in a city, where the greatest...... physicochemical forms, blast contaminant transformations, plume height and propagation, deposition velocities, post-deposition migration and clearance, as well as countermeasure effectiveness. This problem is being addressed for a new version of the ARGOS decision support system....

  9. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  10. Engineering and environmental remediation scenarios due to leakage from the Gulf War oil spill using 3-D numerical contaminant modellings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Al-Weshah, Radwan A.

    2017-11-01

    The transport groundwater modelling has been undertaken to assess potential remediation scenarios and provide an optimal remediation options for consideration. The purpose of the study was to allow 50 years of predictive remediation simulation time. The results depict the likely total petroleum hydrocarbon migration pattern in the area under the worst-case scenario. The remediation scenario simulations indicate that do nothing approach will likely not achieve the target water quality within 50 years. Similarly, complete source removal approach will also likely not achieve the target water quality within 50 years. Partial source removal could be expected to remove a significant portion of the contaminant mass, but would increase the rate of contaminant recharge in the short to medium term. The pump-treat-reinject simulation indicates that the option appears feasible and could achieve a reduction in the area of the 0.01 mg/L TPH contour area for both Raudhatain and Umm Al-Aish by 35 and 30%, respectively, within 50 years. The rate of improvement and the completion date would depend on a range of factors such as bore field arrangements, pumping rates, reinjection water quality and additional volumes being introduced and require further optimisation and field pilot trials.

  11. Assessment of future agricultural conditions in southwestern Africa using fuzzy logic and high-resolution climate model scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weinzierl, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a major impact on the arid savanna regions of southwestern Africa, such as the Okavango Basin. Precipitation is a major constraint for agriculture in countries like Namibia and Botswana and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach uses reanalysis data and climate model output for two scenarios and compares them to the precipitation requirements of the five most important crops grown in the region: maize, pearl millet, sorghum, cassava and cow pea. It also takes into account the dominant soil types, as plant growth is also limited by nutrient-poor soils with unfavorable physical and chemical properties. The two factors are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable zones and identifies areas where farming without irrigation may experience a decline in yields or may even no longer be possible at the end of the 21st century. The results show that pearl millet is the most suitable crop in all scenarios while especially the cultivation of maize, sorghum and cow pea may be affected by a possible reduction of precipitation under the high-emission scenario.

  12. Modeling caspian sea water level oscilLations Under Diffrent Scenarioes of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GholamReza Roshan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in thecoastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was stimulated. Variations in environmentalparameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, tmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for bothpast (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software(version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17ºC per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increasedby ca. +36 mm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64ºC and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin,temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78ºC and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels projectfuture water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  13. Overemphasis on Perfectly Competitive Markets in Microeconomics Principles Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Roderick; Myatt, Anthony

    2007-01-01

    Microeconomic principles courses focus on perfectly competitive markets far more than other market structures. The authors examine five possible reasons for this but find none of them sufficiently compelling. They conclude that textbook authors should place more emphasis on how economists select appropriate models and test models' predictions…

  14. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

  15. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Bezhenar, R.; Brown, J.; Cheng, J. -J.; Ćujić, M.; Dragović, S.; Duffa, C.; Fiévet, B.; Hosseini, A.; Jung, K. T.; Kamboj, S.; Keum, D. -K.; Kryshev, A.; LePoire, D.; Maderich, V.; Min, B. -I.; Periáñez, R.; Sazykina, T.; Suh, K. -S.; Yu, C.; Wang, C.; Heling, R.

    2016-03-01

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

  16. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  17. Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulin Tao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

  18. Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%. Different key performance indicators (KPI differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.

  19. An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

    2014-05-01

    In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

  20. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  1. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO 2 , resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [de

  2. Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Haw; White, Michael J; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Keitzer, S Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E; Sowa, Scott P; Ludsin, Stuart A; Robertson, Dale M; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A

    2016-11-01

    Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Haw; White, Michael J.; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Keitzer, S. Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D.; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E.; Sowa, Scott P.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Robertson, Dale M.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.

  4. Obsession with perfection: Body dysmorphia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vashi, Neelam A

    The deeply rooted fascination with beauty penetrates society worldwide. The indulgence to look and feel beautiful pervades all ages, genders, and nationalities, with research conferring a remarkable tendency to agree on measures of attractiveness among these disparate groups. Research has found that beautiful people do, in fact, receive more desirable outcomes in life and job satisfaction, family formation, and overall happiness. Humans have a tendency to respond to attractive persons more favorably, driving many patients to our clinics. Although some dissatisfaction with one's appearance is common and normal, excessive concern with certain facial or body attributes can be sign of an underlying disorder. Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) is a disorder of self-perception. It is the obsession with perfection. Defined as the impairing preoccupation with a nonexistent or minimal flaw in appearance, BDD affects 0.7-2.4% of the general population and a much larger percentage of those attempting to receive aesthetic treatments. Clinicians should be aware of this disorder and remain vigilant because such patients will not be satisfied with corrective procedures. Although not involving cosmetic intervention, the treatment of BDD does involve psychiatric referral and psychopharmacologic therapy, with patients receiving these having a much better prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. CityZoom UP (Urban Pollution): a computational tool for the fast generation and setup of urban scenarios for CFD and dispersion modelling simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Grazziotin, Pablo Colossi

    2016-01-01

    This research presents the development of CityZoom UP, the first attempt to extend existing urban planning software in order to assist in modelling urban scenarios and setting up simulation parameters for Gaussian dispersion and CFD models. Based on the previous capabilities and graphic user interfaces of CityZoom to model and validate urban scenarios based on Master Plan regulations, new graphic user interfaces, automatic mesh generation and data conversion algorithms have been created to se...

  6. PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SCENARIO-GENERATION METHODS APPLIED TO A STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Delgado de Oliveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.

  7. Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

  8. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-03-24

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

  9. Ethicted (evaluation process model to improve personalised ICT services for independent living and active ageing)--future scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärki, Anne; Sävel, Jaana; Sallinen, Merja; Kuusinen, Jere

    2013-01-01

    ICT innovations are constantly developed, and there is no lack of elderly customers, as the number of the elderly is dramatically increasing. Elderly are willing to use ICT to increase their own safety and social activity, but they need trust on the reliability, accessibility and other ethical aspects of ICT including the maintenance of privacy and self-determination. Ethical standards for ICT are usually not considered. "Ethicted" characterizes an ICT service or product as ethically evaluated. As a standardized procedure, it will not only increase the acceptability of ICT, but also provide services for ICT developers. In the future scenario, ICT under development should be evaluated by using a process model that is specifically built to find the lacks in ethical aspects. The model would then be tested by end-users, the formal and informal care givers, to receive direct feedback for redeveloping solutions. As final outcomes, there should be standards for ICT in elderly care and a service for ICT developers to utilize the evaluation model. This future scenario work included partners from 6 EU member countries. The combination of academic research and industrial/commercial interest of ICT developers should and can bring new value to assistive ICT for elderly care.

  10. Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deng Ding

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We developed an agent-based model (ABM to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.

  11. NASA Human Spaceflight Scenarios - Do All Our Models Still Say No?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2017-01-01

    human spaceflight differently. 1) If costs have traditionally been so high that adding them up is discouraging, are there any new facts on the ground offering paths to significantly lower costs? 2) If NASA's spaceflight budget and process is an over-arching constraint, with its planning limitations favoring short-term outlooks, is there a way to step outside the budget box? 3) If life cycle answers have historically been too uncertain to be useful, is there a process where stakeholders gain valuable insights merely from emphasizing a common understanding around questions? We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures - an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit. Private capital, directly or indirectly, an ingredient of public private partnerships, may be a significant factor in finding a path around the limits of the NASA spaceflight budget. Also, understanding and reviewing the pros, cons and uncertainties of assorted architectures can assist in developing a common understanding around key questions as important if not more so than the numbers and answers. Lastly, a scenario planning technique is briefly explored that can mature a common understanding about the agencies situation at hand and how diverse stakeholders can go forward together. Scenario planning, rather than focusing on answers, places emphasis on stakeholders developing a common understanding about the future. Putting aside costs, this is especially true of questions about sustainability and growth, results, benefits and expectations. While efficiency exercises or analysis look to reduce resources in one place to apply them elsewhere

  12. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwang In Hyuck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  13. Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In Hyuck Hwang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is because the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manually by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was suggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

  14. The Comparison of Distributed P2P Trust Models Based on Quantitative Parameters in the File Downloading Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Varied P2P trust models have been proposed recently; it is necessary to develop an effective method to evaluate these trust models to resolve the commonalities (guiding the newly generated trust models in theory and individuality (assisting a decision maker in choosing an optimal trust model to implement in specific context issues. A new method for analyzing and comparing P2P trust models based on hierarchical parameters quantization in the file downloading scenarios is proposed in this paper. Several parameters are extracted from the functional attributes and quality feature of trust relationship, as well as requirements from the specific network context and the evaluators. Several distributed P2P trust models are analyzed quantitatively with extracted parameters modeled into a hierarchical model. The fuzzy inferring method is applied to the hierarchical modeling of parameters to fuse the evaluated values of the candidate trust models, and then the relative optimal one is selected based on the sorted overall quantitative values. Finally, analyses and simulation are performed. The results show that the proposed method is reasonable and effective compared with the previous