WorldWideScience

Sample records for path ensemble study

  1. Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.

    2017-06-01

    The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.

  2. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-08-20

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  3. Current path in light emitting diodes based on nanowire ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limbach, F; Hauswald, C; Lähnemann, J; Wölz, M; Brandt, O; Trampert, A; Hanke, M; Jahn, U; Calarco, R; Geelhaar, L; Riechert, H

    2012-01-01

    Light emitting diodes (LEDs) have been fabricated using ensembles of free-standing (In, Ga)N/GaN nanowires (NWs) grown on Si substrates in the self-induced growth mode by molecular beam epitaxy. Electron-beam-induced current analysis, cathodoluminescence as well as biased μ-photoluminescence spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electrical measurements indicate that the electroluminescence of such LEDs is governed by the differences in the individual current densities of the single-NW LEDs operated in parallel, i.e. by the inhomogeneity of the current path in the ensemble LED. In addition, the optoelectronic characterization leads to the conclusion that these NWs exhibit N-polarity and that the (In, Ga)N quantum well states in the NWs are subject to a non-vanishing quantum confined Stark effect. (paper)

  4. Statistical Analysis of the First Passage Path Ensemble of Jump Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Kleist, Max; Schütte, Christof; Zhang, Wei

    2018-02-01

    The transition mechanism of jump processes between two different subsets in state space reveals important dynamical information of the processes and therefore has attracted considerable attention in the past years. In this paper, we study the first passage path ensemble of both discrete-time and continuous-time jump processes on a finite state space. The main approach is to divide each first passage path into nonreactive and reactive segments and to study them separately. The analysis can be applied to jump processes which are non-ergodic, as well as continuous-time jump processes where the waiting time distributions are non-exponential. In the particular case that the jump processes are both Markovian and ergodic, our analysis elucidates the relations between the study of the first passage paths and the study of the transition paths in transition path theory. We provide algorithms to numerically compute statistics of the first passage path ensemble. The computational complexity of these algorithms scales with the complexity of solving a linear system, for which efficient methods are available. Several examples demonstrate the wide applicability of the derived results across research areas.

  5. Equipartition terms in transition path ensemble: Insights from molecular dynamics simulations of alanine dipeptide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjin

    2018-02-01

    Transition path ensemble consists of reactive trajectories and possesses all the information necessary for the understanding of the mechanism and dynamics of important condensed phase processes. However, quantitative description of the properties of the transition path ensemble is far from being established. Here, with numerical calculations on a model system, the equipartition terms defined in thermal equilibrium were for the first time estimated in the transition path ensemble. It was not surprising to observe that the energy was not equally distributed among all the coordinates. However, the energies distributed on a pair of conjugated coordinates remained equal. Higher energies were observed to be distributed on several coordinates, which are highly coupled to the reaction coordinate, while the rest were almost equally distributed. In addition, the ensemble-averaged energy on each coordinate as a function of time was also quantified. These quantitative analyses on energy distributions provided new insights into the transition path ensemble.

  6. Time-optimal path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong; Le Maitre, Olivier; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    the performance of sampling strategy, and develop insight into extensions dealing with regional or general circulation models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times, and consequently develop a path planning

  7. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong; Le Maî tre, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    , we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values

  8. Time-optimal path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-01-06

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct time-optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where a set deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In the operational setting, much about dynamics, topography and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain, and as a result a single path produced by a model simulation has limited utility. To overcome this limitation, we rely on a finitesize ensemble of deterministic forecasts to quantify the impact of variability in the dynamics. The uncertainty of flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the optimal path by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of sampling strategy, and develop insight into extensions dealing with regional or general circulation models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times, and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  9. Water evaporation: a transition path sampling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varilly, Patrick; Chandler, David

    2013-02-07

    We use transition path sampling to study evaporation in the SPC/E model of liquid water. On the basis of thousands of evaporation trajectories, we characterize the members of the transition state ensemble (TSE), which exhibit a liquid-vapor interface with predominantly negative mean curvature at the site of evaporation. We also find that after evaporation is complete, the distributions of translational and angular momenta of the evaporated water are Maxwellian with a temperature equal to that of the liquid. To characterize the evaporation trajectories in their entirety, we find that it suffices to project them onto just two coordinates: the distance of the evaporating molecule to the instantaneous liquid-vapor interface and the velocity of the water along the average interface normal. In this projected space, we find that the TSE is well-captured by a simple model of ballistic escape from a deep potential well, with no additional barrier to evaporation beyond the cohesive strength of the liquid. Equivalently, they are consistent with a near-unity probability for a water molecule impinging upon a liquid droplet to condense. These results agree with previous simulations and with some, but not all, recent experiments.

  10. Ensemble averaged coherent state path integral for disordered bosons with a repulsive interaction (Derivation of mean field equations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mieck, B.

    2007-01-01

    We consider bosonic atoms with a repulsive contact interaction in a trap potential for a Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC) and additionally include a random potential. The ensemble averages for two models of static (I) and dynamic (II) disorder are performed and investigated in parallel. The bosonic many body systems of the two disorder models are represented by coherent state path integrals on the Keldysh time contour which allow exact ensemble averages for zero and finite temperatures. These ensemble averages of coherent state path integrals therefore present alternatives to replica field theories or super-symmetric averaging techniques. Hubbard-Stratonovich transformations (HST) lead to two corresponding self-energies for the hermitian repulsive interaction and for the non-hermitian disorder-interaction. The self-energy of the repulsive interaction is absorbed by a shift into the disorder-self-energy which comprises as an element of a larger symplectic Lie algebra sp(4M) the self-energy of the repulsive interaction as a subalgebra (which is equivalent to the direct product of M x sp(2); 'M' is the number of discrete time intervals of the disorder-self-energy in the generating function). After removal of the remaining Gaussian integral for the self-energy of the repulsive interaction, the first order variations of the coherent state path integrals result in the exact mean field or saddle point equations, solely depending on the disorder-self-energy matrix. These equations can be solved by continued fractions and are reminiscent to the 'Nambu-Gorkov' Green function formalism in superconductivity because anomalous terms or pair condensates of the bosonic atoms are also included into the selfenergies. The derived mean field equations of the models with static (I) and dynamic (II) disorder are particularly applicable for BEC in d=3 spatial dimensions because of the singularity of the density of states at vanishing wavevector. However, one usually starts out from

  11. Statistical ensembles and molecular dynamics studies of anisotropic solids. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, J.R.; Rahman, A.

    1985-01-01

    We have recently discussed how the Parrinello--Rahman theory can be brought into accord with the theory of the elastic and thermodynamic behavior of anisotropic media. This involves the isoenthalpic--isotension ensemble of statistical mechanics. Nose has developed a canonical ensemble form of molecular dynamics. We combine Nose's ideas with the Parrinello--Rahman theory to obtain a canonical form of molecular dynamics appropriate to the study of anisotropic media subjected to arbitrary external stress. We employ this isothermal--isotension ensemble in a study of a fcc→ close-packed structural phase transformation in a Lennard-Jones solid subjected to uniaxial compression. Our interpretation of the Nose theory does not involve a scaling of the time variable. This latter fact leads to simplifications when studying the time dependence of quantities

  12. Flight Path Recovery System (FPRS) design study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-01

    The study contained herein presents a design for a Flight Path Recovery System (FPPS) for use in the NURE Program which will be more accurate than systems presently used, provide position location data in digital form suitable for automatic data processing, and provide for flight path recovery in a more economic and operationally suitable manner. The design is based upon the use of presently available hardware and technoloy, and presents little, it any, development risk. In addition, a Flight Test Plan designed to test the FPRS design concept is presented.

  13. Flight Path Recovery System (FPRS) design study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-09-01

    The study contained herein presents a design for a Flight Path Recovery System (FPPS) for use in the NURE Program which will be more accurate than systems presently used, provide position location data in digital form suitable for automatic data processing, and provide for flight path recovery in a more economic and operationally suitable manner. The design is based upon the use of presently available hardware and technoloy, and presents little, it any, development risk. In addition, a Flight Test Plan designed to test the FPRS design concept is presented

  14. A Comparative Case Study of Non-Music Major Participation in Two Contrasting Collegiate Choral Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sara K.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this comparative case study was to examine the motivation for participation in traditional and non-traditional vocal ensembles by students who are not pursuing a career in music and the perceived benefits of this participation. Participants were selected from a traditional mixed choral ensemble and a student-run a cappella ensemble.…

  15. Generating maximally-path-entangled number states in two spin ensembles coupled to a superconducting flux qubit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maleki, Yusef; Zheltikov, Aleksei M.

    2018-01-01

    An ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers coupled to a circuit QED device is shown to enable an efficient, high-fidelity generation of high-N00N states. Instead of first creating entanglement and then increasing the number of entangled particles N , our source of high-N00N states first prepares a high-N Fock state in one of the NV ensembles and then entangles it to the rest of the system. With such a strategy, high-N N00N states can be generated in just a few operational steps with an extraordinary fidelity. Once prepared, such a state can be stored over a longer period of time due to the remarkably long coherence time of NV centers.

  16. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon

    2016-01-08

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  17. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  18. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    proposed to explain the characteristics and the successful application of ensembles to different application domains. For instance, Allwein, Schapire, and Singer interpreted the improved generalization capabilities of ensembles of learning machines in the framework of large margin classifiers [4,177], Kleinberg in the context of stochastic discrimination theory [112], and Breiman and Friedman in the light of the bias-variance analysis borrowed from classical statistics [21,70]. Empirical studies showed that both in classification and regression problems, ensembles improve on single learning machines, and moreover large experimental studies compared the effectiveness of different ensemble methods on benchmark data sets [10,11,49,188]. The interest in this research area is motivated also by the availability of very fast computers and networks of workstations at a relatively low cost that allow the implementation and the experimentation of complex ensemble methods using off-the-shelf computer platforms. However, as explained in Section 26.2 there are deeper reasons to use ensembles of learning machines, motivated by the intrinsic characteristics of the ensemble methods. The main aim of this chapter is to introduce ensemble methods and to provide an overview and a bibliography of the main areas of research, without pretending to be exhaustive or to explain the detailed characteristics of each ensemble method. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, the main theoretical and practical reasons for combining multiple learners are introduced. Section 26.3 depicts the main taxonomies on ensemble methods proposed in the literature. In Section 26.4 and 26.5, we present an overview of the main supervised ensemble methods reported in the literature, adopting a simple taxonomy, originally proposed in Ref. [201]. Applications of ensemble methods are only marginally considered, but a specific section on some relevant applications of ensemble methods in astronomy and

  19. Spirituality and Synagogue Music: A Case Study of Two Synagogue Music Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shansky, Carol

    2012-01-01

    Participation in community music ensembles is an important and popular form of music education--with members of ensembles that perform within religious services having the opportunity of experiencing a possible extra dimension of a spiritual experience. Thus the intent of this study was to survey adult choir and band members at Temple Emeth in…

  20. Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

    2017-04-01

    Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

  1. Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Augustyniak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.

  2. The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

  3. Study Paths, Riemann Surfaces, and Strebel Differentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buser, Peter; Semmler, Klaus-Dieter

    2017-01-01

    These pages aim to explain and interpret why the late Mika Seppälä, a conformal geometer, proposed to model student study behaviour using concepts from conformal geometry, such as Riemann surfaces and Strebel differentials. Over many years Mika Seppälä taught online calculus courses to students at Florida State University in the United States, as…

  4. Pedestrian Path Prediction with Recursive Bayesian Filters: A Comparative Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schneider, N.; Gavrila, D.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the context of intelligent vehicles, we perform a comparative study on recursive Bayesian filters for pedestrian path prediction at short time horizons (< 2s). We consider Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) based on single dynamical models and Interacting Multiple Models (IMM) combining several such

  5. A Fair Path Toward Universal Coverage: National Case Study for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    A Fair Path Toward Universal Coverage: National Case Study for Ethiopia, Uganda, and Zambia. As national health systems in developing countries make progress toward achieving universal health service coverage, many face ethical challenges. In its 2010 World Health Report, the World Health Assembly called on the ...

  6. Diagnostic budget study of the internal variability in ensemble simulations of the Canadian RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikiema, Oumarou; Laprise, Rene [UQAM, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, Centre ESCER, Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2011-06-15

    Due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of the atmospheric dynamics, it is known that small differences in the initial conditions (IC) of models can grow and affect the simulation evolution. In this study, we perform a quantitative diagnostic budget calculation of the various diabatic and dynamical contributions to the time evolution and spatial distribution of internal variability (IV) in simulations with the nested Canadian Regional Climate Model. We establish prognostic budget equations of the IV for the potential temperature and the relative vorticity fields. For both of these variables, the IV equations present similar terms, notably terms relating to the transport of IV by ensemble-mean flow and to the covariance of fluctuations acting on the gradient of the ensemble-mean state. We show the skill of these equations to diagnose the IV that took place in an ensemble of 20 3-month (summer season) simulations that differed only in their IC. Our study suggests that the dominant terms responsible for the large increase of IV are either the covariance term involving the potential temperature fluctuations and diabatic heating fluctuations, or the covariance of inter-member fluctuations acting upon ensemble-mean gradients. Our results also show that, on average, the third-order terms are negligible, but they can become important when the IV is large. (orig.)

  7. Comparison of classical reaction paths and tunneling paths studied with the semiclassical instanton theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meisner, Jan; Markmeyer, Max N; Bohner, Matthias U; Kästner, Johannes

    2017-08-30

    Atom tunneling in the hydrogen atom transfer reaction of the 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylphenyl radical to 3,5-di-tert-butylneophyl, which has a short but strongly curved reaction path, was investigated using instanton theory. We found the tunneling path to deviate qualitatively from the classical intrinsic reaction coordinate, the steepest-descent path in mass-weighted Cartesian coordinates. To perform that comparison, we implemented a new variant of the predictor-corrector algorithm for the calculation of the intrinsic reaction coordinate. We used the reaction force analysis method as a means to decompose the reaction barrier into structural and electronic components. Due to the narrow energy barrier, atom tunneling is important in the abovementioned reaction, even above room temperature. Our calculated rate constants between 350 K and 100 K agree well with experimental values. We found a H/D kinetic isotope effect of almost 10 6 at 100 K. Tunneling dominates the protium transfer below 400 K and the deuterium transfer below 300 K. We compared the lengths of the tunneling path and the classical path for the hydrogen atom transfer in the reaction HCl + Cl and quantified the corner cutting in this reaction. At low temperature, the tunneling path is about 40% shorter than the classical path.

  8. Quasi-static ensemble variational data assimilation: a theoretical and numerical study with the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillion, Anthony; Bocquet, Marc; Gratton, Serge

    2018-04-01

    The analysis in nonlinear variational data assimilation is the solution of a non-quadratic minimization. Thus, the analysis efficiency relies on its ability to locate a global minimum of the cost function. If this minimization uses a Gauss-Newton (GN) method, it is critical for the starting point to be in the attraction basin of a global minimum. Otherwise the method may converge to a local extremum, which degrades the analysis. With chaotic models, the number of local extrema often increases with the temporal extent of the data assimilation window, making the former condition harder to satisfy. This is unfortunate because the assimilation performance also increases with this temporal extent. However, a quasi-static (QS) minimization may overcome these local extrema. It accomplishes this by gradually injecting the observations in the cost function. This method was introduced by Pires et al. (1996) in a 4D-Var context. We generalize this approach to four-dimensional strong-constraint nonlinear ensemble variational (EnVar) methods, which are based on both a nonlinear variational analysis and the propagation of dynamical error statistics via an ensemble. This forces one to consider the cost function minimizations in the broader context of cycled data assimilation algorithms. We adapt this QS approach to the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), an exemplar of nonlinear deterministic four-dimensional EnVar methods. Using low-order models, we quantify the positive impact of the QS approach on the IEnKS, especially for long data assimilation windows. We also examine the computational cost of QS implementations and suggest cheaper algorithms.

  9. A Pseudoproxy-Ensemble Study of Late-Holocene Climate Field Reconstructions Using CCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrhein, D. E.; Smerdon, J. E.

    2009-12-01

    Recent evaluations of late-Holocene multi-proxy reconstruction methods have used pseudoproxy experiments derived from millennial General Circulation Model (GCM) integrations. These experiments assess the performance of a reconstruction technique by comparing pseudoproxy reconstructions, which use restricted subsets of model data, against complete GCM data fields. Most previous studies have tested methodologies using different pseudoproxy noise levels, but only with single realizations for each noise classification. A more robust evaluation of performance is to create an ensemble of pseudoproxy networks with distinct sets of noise realizations and a corresponding reconstruction ensemble that can be evaluated for consistency and sensitivity to random error. This work investigates canonical correlation analysis (CCA) as a late-Holocene climate field reconstruction (CFR) technique using ensembles of pseudoproxy experiments derived from the NCAR CSM 1.4 millennial integration. Three 200-member reconstruction ensembles are computed using pseudoproxies with signal-to-noise ratios (by standard deviation) of 1, 0.5, and 0.25 and locations that approximate the spatial distribution of real-world multiproxy networks. An important component of these ensemble calculations is the independent optimization of the three CCA truncation parameters for each ensemble member. This task is accomplished using an inexpensive discrete optimization algorithm that minimizes both RMS error in the calibration interval and the number of free parameters in the reconstruction model to avoid artificial skill. Within this framework, CCA is investigated for its sensitivity to the level of noise in the pseudoproxy network and the spatial distribution of the network. Warm biases, variance losses, and validation-interval error increase with noise level and vary spatially within the reconstructed fields. Reconstruction skill, measured as grid-point correlations during the validation interval, is lowest in

  10. Study on Evolutionary Path of University Students’ Entrepreneurship Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daojian Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at studying the evolution pattern of cultivating the ability of university students’ entrepreneurship, this paper established the payoff matrix between the university and students agent with the evolutionary economics method. The analysis of the evolution of the communication process model reveals how the choice strategy of individuals influences that of groups. Numerical simulation also demonstrates the influences of different values of decision-making parameters and the change of initial conditions on the result of evolution. It is found that the evolution path system of university students’ entrepreneurial ability has two kinds of modes: one is the ideal state; and the other one is the bad “lock” state. By adjusting parameters, we can jump out of the bad “lock” state, thus optimizing cultivation path.

  11. Dissolution Dynamic Nuclear Polarization capability study with fluid path

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malinowski, Ronja Maja; Lipsø, Hans Kasper Wigh; Lerche, Mathilde Hauge

    2016-01-01

    Signal enhancement by hyperpolarization is a way of overcoming the low sensitivity in magnetic resonance; MRI in particular. One of the most well-known methods, dissolution Dynamic Nuclear Polarization, has been used clinically in cancer patients. One way of ensuring a low bioburden of the hyperp......Signal enhancement by hyperpolarization is a way of overcoming the low sensitivity in magnetic resonance; MRI in particular. One of the most well-known methods, dissolution Dynamic Nuclear Polarization, has been used clinically in cancer patients. One way of ensuring a low bioburden...... of the hyperpolarized product is by use of a closed fluid path that constitutes a barrier to contamination. The fluid path can be filled with the pharmaceuticals, i.e. imaging agent and solvents, in a clean room, and then stored or immediately used at the polarizer. In this study, we present a method of filling...

  12. Motif Penggunaan dan Kepuasan Menggunakan Path (Studi Korelasional Tentang Pengaruh Motif Penggunaan dan Kepuasan Menggunakan Jejaring sosial Path di Kalangan Masyarakat Pasar VI Kelurahan Padang Bulan Medan)

    OpenAIRE

    Dipta, Anna Mira

    2015-01-01

    This study entitled Effect of using and gratification of using social networking Path among the people in Padang Bulan Medan (CorrelationalEffect of using and gratification of using social networking Path among the people in Padang Bulan Medan). Path is a social network similar to its predecessor facebook. Path exclusive can only be used with smartphones based on IOS and android operating system. Path is a private social networking service application designed to bring users closer to family....

  13. A Contribution to the Study of Ensemble of Self-Organizing Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Antonio Pasa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a factorial experiment to investigate the ensemble of Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps. Clusters Validity Indexes and the Mean Square Quantization Error were used as a criterion for fusing Kohonen Maps, through three different equations and four approaches. Computational simulations were performed with traditional dataset, including those with high dimensionality, not linearly separable classes, Gaussian mixtures, almost touching clusters, and unbalanced classes, from the UCI Machine Learning Repository and from Fundamental Clustering Problems Suite, with variations in map size, number of ensemble components, and the percentage of dataset bagging. The proposed method achieves a better classification than a single Kohonen Map and we applied the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test to evidence its effectiveness.

  14. Generalized ensemble method applied to study systems with strong first order transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małolepsza, E.; Kim, J.; Keyes, T.

    2015-09-01

    At strong first-order phase transitions, the entropy versus energy or, at constant pressure, enthalpy, exhibits convex behavior, and the statistical temperature curve correspondingly exhibits an S-loop or back-bending. In the canonical and isothermal-isobaric ensembles, with temperature as the control variable, the probability density functions become bimodal with peaks localized outside of the S-loop region. Inside, states are unstable, and as a result simulation of equilibrium phase coexistence becomes impossible. To overcome this problem, a method was proposed by Kim, Keyes and Straub [1], where optimally designed generalized ensemble sampling was combined with replica exchange, and denoted generalized replica exchange method (gREM). This new technique uses parametrized effective sampling weights that lead to a unimodal energy distribution, transforming unstable states into stable ones. In the present study, the gREM, originally developed as a Monte Carlo algorithm, was implemented to work with molecular dynamics in an isobaric ensemble and coded into LAMMPS, a highly optimized open source molecular simulation package. The method is illustrated in a study of the very strong solid/liquid transition in water.

  15. Data assimilation for groundwater flow modelling using Unbiased Ensemble Square Root Filter: Case study in Guantao, North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W.; Li, H.; Li, W.; Chen, F.; Wang, L.

    2017-12-01

    Data assimilation techniques are widely used in hydrology to improve the reliability of hydrological models and to reduce model predictive uncertainties. This provides critical information for decision makers in water resources management. This study aims to evaluate a data assimilation system for the Guantao groundwater flow model coupled with a one-dimensional soil column simulation (Hydrus 1D) using an Unbiased Ensemble Square Root Filter (UnEnSRF) originating from the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to update parameters and states, separately or simultaneously. To simplify the coupling between unsaturated and saturated zone, a linear relationship obtained from analyzing inputs to and outputs from Hydrus 1D is applied in the data assimilation process. Unlike EnKF, the UnEnSRF updates parameter ensemble mean and ensemble perturbations separately. In order to keep the ensemble filter working well during the data assimilation, two factors are introduced in the study. One is called damping factor to dampen the update amplitude of the posterior ensemble mean to avoid nonrealistic values. The other is called inflation factor to relax the posterior ensemble perturbations close to prior to avoid filter inbreeding problems. The sensitivities of the two factors are studied and their favorable values for the Guantao model are determined. The appropriate observation error and ensemble size were also determined to facilitate the further analysis. This study demonstrated that the data assimilation of both model parameters and states gives a smaller model prediction error but with larger uncertainty while the data assimilation of only model states provides a smaller predictive uncertainty but with a larger model prediction error. Data assimilation in a groundwater flow model will improve model prediction and at the same time make the model converge to the true parameters, which provides a successful base for applications in real time modelling or real time controlling strategies

  16. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  17. Study and Research Paths at Upper Secondary Mathematics Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jessen, Britta Eyrich

    the scope of teaching at this level. With respect to mathematical modelling, links and gaps were identified between scholarly knowledge and knowledge to be taught in secondary school. It is suggested that SRP based teaching can bridge parts of the identified gaps. Finally, it is found that in order for SRP......In didactics of mathematics, researchers have for decades been interested in how to teach students to pose questions and solve problems. Several approaches rely on the idea, that students learn mathematics, when they are engaged in activities similar to research mathematicians. This PhD project...... touch upon these ideas from the perspective offered by the Anthropological Theory of Didactics (ATD ). Within ATD, teaching is proposed to be designed as Study and Research Paths (SRP). This thesis investigates how SRP's support the students' learning of mathematics in a bidisciplinary context involving...

  18. Using step and path selection functions for estimating resistance to movement: Pumas as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine A. Zeller; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Paul Beier; T. Winston Vickers; Walter M. Boyce

    2015-01-01

    GPS telemetry collars and their ability to acquire accurate and consistently frequent locations have increased the use of step selection functions (SSFs) and path selection functions (PathSFs) for studying animal movement and estimating resistance. However, previously published SSFs and PathSFs often do not accommodate multiple scales or multiscale modeling....

  19. Ensembl 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T

    2004-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.

  20. Sub-Ensemble Coastal Flood Forecasting: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin A. Schulte

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability to predict the cluster into which the observation will fall can be measured using a cluster skill score. Additional sub-ensemble and composite skill scores are proposed for assessing the forecast skill of a clustered ensemble forecast. A recently proposed method for statistically increasing the number of ensemble members is used to improve sub-ensemble probabilistic estimates. Through the application of the proposed methodology to Sandy coastal flood reforecasts, it is demonstrated that statistics computed using only ensemble members belonging to a specific cluster are more representative than those computed using all ensemble members simultaneously. A cluster skill-cluster uncertainty index relationship is identified, which is the cluster analog of the documented spread-skill relationship. Two sub-ensemble skill scores are shown to be positively correlated with cluster forecast skill, suggesting that skillfully forecasting the cluster into which the observation will fall is important to overall forecast skill. The identified relationships also suggest that the number of ensemble members within in each cluster can be used as guidance for assessing the potential for forecast error. The inevitable existence of ensemble member clusters in tidally dominated total water level prediction systems suggests that clustering is a necessary post-processing step for producing representative and skillful total water level forecasts.

  1. Ensembl 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...

  2. Ensemble Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...

  3. An OSSE Study for Deep Argo Array using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, You-Soon; Zhang, Shaoqing; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong

    2018-03-01

    An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system was designed to investigate the impact of deep ocean Argo profile assimilation in a biased numerical climate system. Based on the modern Argo observational array and an artificial extension to full depth, "observations" drawn from one coupled general circulation model (CM2.0) were assimilated into another model (CM2.1). Our results showed that coupled data assimilation with simultaneous atmospheric and oceanic constraints plays a significant role in preventing deep ocean drift. However, the extension of the Argo array to full depth did not significantly improve the quality of the oceanic climate estimation within the bias magnitude in the twin experiment. Even in the "identical" twin experiment for the deep Argo array from the same model (CM2.1) with the assimilation model, no significant changes were shown in the deep ocean, such as in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Antarctic bottom water cell. The small ensemble spread and corresponding weak constraints by the deep Argo profiles with medium spatial and temporal resolution may explain why the deep Argo profiles did not improve the deep ocean features in the assimilation system. Additional studies using different assimilation methods with improved spatial and temporal resolution of the deep Argo array are necessary in order to more thoroughly understand the impact of the deep Argo array on the assimilation system.

  4. SASSIE: A program to study intrinsically disordered biological molecules and macromolecular ensembles using experimental scattering restraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Joseph E.; Raghunandan, Sindhu; Nanda, Hirsh; Krueger, Susan

    2012-02-01

    regions to vary dihedral angles, ensembles of structures can be generated. Additionally, simple two-body rigid-body rotations are supported with and without disordered regions. Generated structures can then be used to calculate small-angle scattering profiles which can then be filtered against experimentally determined data. Filtered structures can be visualized individually or as an ensemble using density plots. In the modular and expandable program framework the user can easily access our subroutines and structural coordinates can be easily obtained for study using other computational physics methods. Additional comments: The distribution file for this program is over 159 Mbytes and therefore is not delivered directly when download or Email is requested. Instead an html file giving details of how the program can be obtained is sent. Running time: Varies depending on application. Typically 10 minutes to 24 hours depending on the number of generated structures.

  5. A study of fuzzy logic ensemble system performance on face recognition problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakova, A.; Lipinskiy, L.

    2017-02-01

    Some problems are difficult to solve by using a single intelligent information technology (IIT). The ensemble of the various data mining (DM) techniques is a set of models which are able to solve the problem by itself, but the combination of which allows increasing the efficiency of the system as a whole. Using the IIT ensembles can improve the reliability and efficiency of the final decision, since it emphasizes on the diversity of its components. The new method of the intellectual informational technology ensemble design is considered in this paper. It is based on the fuzzy logic and is designed to solve the classification and regression problems. The ensemble consists of several data mining algorithms: artificial neural network, support vector machine and decision trees. These algorithms and their ensemble have been tested by solving the face recognition problems. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used for feature selection.

  6. Defending Tor from Network Adversaries: A Case Study of Network Path Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juen Joshua

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Tor anonymity network has been shown vulnerable to traffic analysis attacks by autonomous systems (ASes and Internet exchanges (IXes, which can observe different overlay hops belonging to the same circuit. We evaluate whether network path prediction techniques provide an accurate picture of the threat from such adversaries, and whether they can be used to avoid this threat. We perform a measurement study by collecting 17.2 million traceroutes from Tor relays to destinations around the Internet. We compare the collected traceroute paths to predicted paths using state-of-the-art path inference techniques. We find that traceroutes present a very different picture, with the set of ASes seen in the traceroute path differing from the predicted path 80% of the time. We also consider the impact that prediction errors have on Tor security. Using a simulator to choose paths over a week, our traceroutes indicate a user has nearly a 100% chance of at least one compromise in a week with 11% of total paths containing an AS compromise and less than 1% containing an IX compromise when using default Tor selection. We find modifying the path selection to choose paths predicted to be safe lowers total paths with an AS compromise to 0.14% but still presents a 5–11% chance of at least one compromise in a week while making 5% of paths fail, with 96% of failures due to false positives in path inferences. Our results demonstrate more measurement and better path prediction is necessary to mitigate the risk of AS and IX adversaries to Tor.

  7. Macroscopic Ensembles of Aligned Carbon Nanotubes in Bubble Imprints Studied by Polarized Raman Microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shota Ushiba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the alignment of single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs in bubble imprints through polarized Raman microscopy. A hemispherical bubble containing SWCNTs is pressed against a glass substrate, resulting in an imprint of the bubble membrane with a coffee ring on the substrate. We find that macroscopic ensembles of aligned SWCNTs are obtained in the imprints, in which there are three patterns of orientations: (i azimuthal alignment on the coffee ring, (ii radial alignment at the edge of the membrane, and (iii random orientation at the center of the membrane. We also find that the alignment of SWCNTs in the imprints can be manipulated by spinning bubbles. The orientation of SWCNTs on the coffee ring is directed radially, which is orthogonal to the case of unspun bubbles. This approach enables one to align SWCNTs in large quantities and in a short time, potentially opening up a wide range of CNT-based electronic and optical applications.

  8. Study of development paths of dairy farmers in Slovenia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klopcic, M.; Verhees, F.J.H.M.; Kuipers, A.; Koops, W.J.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the Central and Eastern European project of Wageningen UR (Wageningen, the Netherlands) combined with a Leonardo da Vinci project coordinated by Warsaw University of Life Sciences (Warsaw, Poland), an analysis was performed in year 2012 of future development paths of dairy farmers in

  9. Ensemble prediction of air quality using the WRF/CMAQ model system for health effect studies in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jianlin; Li, Xun; Huang, Lin; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhang, Hongliang

    2017-11-01

    Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFEs) of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are -0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (-0.25 to -0.16) and MFE (0.26-0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06-0.19 and

  10. Ensemble prediction of air quality using the WRF/CMAQ model system for health effect studies in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC, the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2. Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB and mean fractional errors (MFEs of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are −0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (−0.25 to −0.16 and MFE (0.26–0.31 of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE of 0.14, compared to MNB

  11. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  12. The canonical ensemble redefined - 1: Formalism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkataraman, R.

    1984-12-01

    For studying the thermodynamic properties of systems we propose an ensemble that lies in between the familiar canonical and microcanonical ensembles. We point out the transition from the canonical to microcanonical ensemble and prove from a comparative study that all these ensembles do not yield the same results even in the thermodynamic limit. An investigation of the coupling between two or more systems with these ensembles suggests that the state of thermodynamical equilibrium is a special case of statistical equilibrium. (author)

  13. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  14. Neutron capture studies with a short flight path

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Stephan; Heil, Michael; Käppeler, Franz; Plag, Ralf; Reifarth, René

    The time of flight (TOF) method is an important tool for the experimental determination of neu- tron capture cross sections which are needed for s-process nucleosynthesis in general, and for analyses of branchings in the s-process reaction path in particular. So far, sample masses of at least several milligrams are required to compensate limitations in the currently available neutron fluxes. This constraint leads to unacceptable backgrounds for most of the relevant unstable branch point nuclei, due to the decay activity of the sample. A possible solution has been proposed by the NCAP project at the University of Frankfurt. A first step in this direction is reported here, which aims at enhancing the sensitivity of the Karlsruhe TOF array by reducing the neutron flight path to only a few centimeters. Though sample masses in the microgram regime can be used by this approach, the increase in neutron flux has to be paid by a higher background from the prompt flash related to neutron production. Test measurements with Au samples are reported.

  15. Photoluminescence study of as-grown vertically standing wurtzite InP nanowire ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Azhar; Beech, Jason P; Anttu, Nicklas; Pistol, Mats-Erik; Samuelson, Lars; Borgström, Magnus T; Yartsev, Arkady

    2013-03-22

    We demonstrate a method that enables the study of photoluminescence of as-grown nanowires on a native substrate by non-destructively suppressing the contribution of substrate photoluminescence. This is achieved by using polarized photo-excitation and photoluminescence and by making an appropriate choice of incident angle of both excitation beam and photoluminescence collection direction. Using TE-polarized excitation at a wavelength of 488 nm at an incident angle of ∼70° we suppress the InP substrate photoluminescence relative to that of the InP nanowires by about 80 times. Consequently, the photoluminescence originating from the nanowires becomes comparable to and easily distinguishable from the substrate photoluminescence. The measured photoluminescence, which peaks at photon energies of ∼1.35 eV and ∼1.49 eV, corresponds to the InP substrate with zinc-blende crystal structure and to the InP nanowires with wurtzite crystal structure, respectively. The photoluminescence quantum yield of the nanowires was found to be ∼20 times lower than that of the InP substrate. The nanowires, grown vertically in a random ensemble, neither exhibit substantial emission polarization selectivity to the axis of the nanowires nor follow excitation polarization preferences observed previously for a single nanowire.

  16. The study of system function analysis method for success path alarm design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, S. K.; Shin, Y. C.

    1999-01-01

    The key benefit to the common use of the critical function approach for safety and mission functions is that monitoring methods expected to be used by operaotrs during emergency condition are used continuously during normal operation. For each critical safety function there exists two or more success paths. Information Processing System monitors the availability, operation state and performance of the critical function success paths. In this paper, We have studied System Function Analysis(SFA) for the design of Success Path Alarm(SPA) for applying in KNGR. In here, we thought that SFA will help the design of SPA. The SFA can be applicable to the design of SPA according to NUREG-0711, also can induce the algorithm for alarm of system, train and flow path. We present a method of system function analysis for designing Success Path Alarm

  17. A study of critical paths for feasibility studies of mining projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayadi, R.

    2002-01-01

    This work develops a model for design and realisation of profitability's and feasibility studies of a mining project. The model provides the structure of various necessary procedures to establish the feasibility studies and presents a logical system of task sequencing and information circulating between tasks. The specifications of mining projects, particularly their duration, complexity and high costs, necessitate design and realisation of feasibility study bases on the sufficient understanding of task behaviour and the critical path method view. For this purpose, critical paths with the highest frequency of occurrence were studied through several simulations. In addition, the critical tasks and sub tasks with the most probability were identified. The model introduced in this paper can serve as a perfect tool in feasibility study of a mining project. It can also be used as a basis of future development of mining software

  18. RACORO continental boundary layer cloud investigations: 1. Case study development and ensemble large-scale forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Toto, Tami; Endo, Satoshi; Lin, Wuyin; Wang, Jian; Feng, Sha; Zhang, Yunyan; Turner, David D.; Liu, Yangang; Li, Zhijin; Xie, Shaocheng; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Zhang, Minghua; Khairoutdinov, Marat

    2015-06-01

    Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60 h case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in situ measurements from the Routine AAF (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility) CLOWD (Clouds with Low Optical Water Depth) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign and remote sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, κ, are derived from observations to be 0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing data sets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and a multiscale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in "trial" large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary clouds.

  19. RACORO Continental Boundary Layer Cloud Investigations: 1. Case Study Development and Ensemble Large-Scale Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Toto, Tami; Endo, Satoshi; Lin, Wuyin; Wang, Jian; Feng, Sha; Zhang, Yunyan; Turner, David D.; Liu, Yangang; hide

    2015-01-01

    Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60 h case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in situ measurements from the Routine AAF (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility) CLOWD (Clouds with Low Optical Water Depth) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign and remote sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, are derived from observations to be approximately 0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing data sets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and a multiscale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in "trial" large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary

  20. A Comparison Study on Rule Extraction from Neural Network Ensembles, Boosted Shallow Trees, and SVMs

    OpenAIRE

    Bologna, Guido; Hayashi, Yoichi

    2018-01-01

    One way to make the knowledge stored in an artificial neural network more intelligible is to extract symbolic rules. However, producing rules from Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs) is an NP-hard problem. Many techniques have been introduced to generate rules from single neural networks, but very few were proposed for ensembles. Moreover, experiments were rarely assessed by 10-fold cross-validation trials. In this work, based on the Discretized Interpretable Multilayer Perceptron (DIMLP), experime...

  1. Study of ±J Ising spin glasses via multicanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, T.; Berg, B.

    1993-03-01

    The authors performed numerical simulations of 2D and 3D Edwards-Anderson spin glass models by using the recently developed multicanonical ensemble. The ergodicity times increase with the lattice size approximately as V 3 . The energy, entropy and other physical quantities are easily calculable at all temperatures from a single simulation. Their finite size scalings and the zero temperature limits are also explored

  2. Finite temperature grand canonical ensemble study of the minimum electrophilicity principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda-Quintana, Ramón Alain; Chattaraj, Pratim K; Ayers, Paul W

    2017-09-28

    We analyze the minimum electrophilicity principle of conceptual density functional theory using the framework of the finite temperature grand canonical ensemble. We provide support for this principle, both for the cases of systems evolving from a non-equilibrium to an equilibrium state and for the change from one equilibrium state to another. In doing so, we clearly delineate the cases where this principle can, or cannot, be used.

  3. A comparative study of breast cancer diagnosis based on neural network ensemble via improved training algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azami, Hamed; Escudero, Javier

    2015-08-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common types of cancer in women all over the world. Early diagnosis of this kind of cancer can significantly increase the chances of long-term survival. Since diagnosis of breast cancer is a complex problem, neural network (NN) approaches have been used as a promising solution. Considering the low speed of the back-propagation (BP) algorithm to train a feed-forward NN, we consider a number of improved NN trainings for the Wisconsin breast cancer dataset: BP with momentum, BP with adaptive learning rate, BP with adaptive learning rate and momentum, Polak-Ribikre conjugate gradient algorithm (CGA), Fletcher-Reeves CGA, Powell-Beale CGA, scaled CGA, resilient BP (RBP), one-step secant and quasi-Newton methods. An NN ensemble, which is a learning paradigm to combine a number of NN outputs, is used to improve the accuracy of the classification task. Results demonstrate that NN ensemble-based classification methods have better performance than NN-based algorithms. The highest overall average accuracy is 97.68% obtained by NN ensemble trained by RBP for 50%-50% training-test evaluation method.

  4. Correlates of Romantic Attachment: A Path Analysis Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Judy A.; Adams, Gerald R.

    1984-01-01

    Based on the theories of Murstein and Reiss, this study found significant relationships between physical attractiveness, need for intimacy, self-disclosure, thought about one's dating partner, and reported romantic love. Data were collected for 656 college students. Sex differences and comparisons of dating relationships of varying duration were…

  5. A Study Analyzing the Career Path of Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Younghee

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to identify the career movement patterns of librarians, analyze factors influencing their career movements, and compare differences in such factors between librarians and chief librarians. Findings showed that the jobs with the highest retention rate were those in public libraries, that library automation system developers showed…

  6. Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

  7. CFD Vision 2030 Study: A Path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotnick, Jeffrey; Khodadoust, Abdollah; Alonso, Juan; Darmofal, David; Gropp, William; Lurie, Elizabeth; Mavriplis, Dimitri

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the results of a study to address the long range, strategic planning required by NASA's Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) program in the area of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), including future software and hardware requirements for High Performance Computing (HPC). Specifically, the "Vision 2030" CFD study is to provide a knowledge-based forecast of the future computational capabilities required for turbulent, transitional, and reacting flow simulations across a broad Mach number regime, and to lay the foundation for the development of a future framework and/or environment where physics-based, accurate predictions of complex turbulent flows, including flow separation, can be accomplished routinely and efficiently in cooperation with other physics-based simulations to enable multi-physics analysis and design. Specific technical requirements from the aerospace industrial and scientific communities were obtained to determine critical capability gaps, anticipated technical challenges, and impediments to achieving the target CFD capability in 2030. A preliminary development plan and roadmap were created to help focus investments in technology development to help achieve the CFD vision in 2030.

  8. A Comparison Study on Rule Extraction from Neural Network Ensembles, Boosted Shallow Trees, and SVMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido Bologna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One way to make the knowledge stored in an artificial neural network more intelligible is to extract symbolic rules. However, producing rules from Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs is an NP-hard problem. Many techniques have been introduced to generate rules from single neural networks, but very few were proposed for ensembles. Moreover, experiments were rarely assessed by 10-fold cross-validation trials. In this work, based on the Discretized Interpretable Multilayer Perceptron (DIMLP, experiments were performed on 10 repetitions of stratified 10-fold cross-validation trials over 25 binary classification problems. The DIMLP architecture allowed us to produce rules from DIMLP ensembles, boosted shallow trees (BSTs, and Support Vector Machines (SVM. The complexity of rulesets was measured with the average number of generated rules and average number of antecedents per rule. From the 25 used classification problems, the most complex rulesets were generated from BSTs trained by “gentle boosting” and “real boosting.” Moreover, we clearly observed that the less complex the rules were, the better their fidelity was. In fact, rules generated from decision stumps trained by modest boosting were, for almost all the 25 datasets, the simplest with the highest fidelity. Finally, in terms of average predictive accuracy and average ruleset complexity, the comparison of some of our results to those reported in the literature proved to be competitive.

  9. An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus

  10. Study of a radiation point defects ensemble in thin GaAs layers implanted by Be+ and Se+ ions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shcherbachev, K.D.; Bublik, V.T.; Kuripyatnik, A.V.; Yurchuk, S.Yu.

    2001-01-01

    The behaviour of a radiation point defects ensemble in SI-GaAs(100) wafers implanted by Be + (a dose of 1x10 14 at/cm 2 , an energy of 50 and 150 keV) and Se + (a dose of 5x10 14 at/cm 2 , an energy of 150, 180 and 240 keV) ions are studied by a triple-crystal diffractometry method. The strain profile and a number of residual radiation point defects are shown to be determined by defects annihilation, their sink to the surface and rechanneling during the implantation [ru

  11. Experimental study of transient paths to the extinction in sonoluminescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urteaga, Raúl; Dellavale, Damián; Puente, Gabriela F; Bonetto, Fabián J

    2008-09-01

    An experimental study of the extinction threshold of single bubble sonoluminescence in an air-water system is presented. Different runs from 5% to 100% of air concentrations were performed at room pressure and temperature. The intensity of sonoluminescence (SL) and time of collapse (t(c)) with respect to the driving were measured while the acoustic pressure was linearly increased from the onset of SL until the bubble extinction. The experimental data were compared with theoretical predictions for shape and position instability thresholds. It was found that the extinction of the bubble is determined by different mechanisms depending on the air concentration. For concentrations greater than approximately 30%-40% with respect to the saturation, the parametric instability limits the maximum value of R(0) that can be reached. On the other hand, for lower concentrations, the extinction appears as a limitation in the time of collapse. Two different mechanisms emerge in this range, i.e., the Bjerknes force and the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The bubble acoustic emission produces backreaction on the bubble itself. This effect occurs in both mechanisms and is essential for the correct prediction of the extinction threshold in the case of low air dissolved concentration.

  12. Integral transforms of the quantum mechanical path integral: Hit function and path-averaged potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, James P.; Gerber, Urs; Schubert, Christian; Trejo, Maria Anabel; Weber, Axel

    2018-04-01

    We introduce two integral transforms of the quantum mechanical transition kernel that represent physical information about the path integral. These transforms can be interpreted as probability distributions on particle trajectories measuring respectively the relative contribution to the path integral from paths crossing a given spatial point (the hit function) and the likelihood of values of the line integral of the potential along a path in the ensemble (the path-averaged potential).

  13. Eigenfunction statistics of Wishart Brownian ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Pragya

    2017-01-01

    We theoretically analyze the eigenfunction fluctuation measures for a Hermitian ensemble which appears as an intermediate state of the perturbation of a stationary ensemble by another stationary ensemble of Wishart (Laguerre) type. Similar to the perturbation by a Gaussian stationary ensemble, the measures undergo a diffusive dynamics in terms of the perturbation parameter but the energy-dependence of the fluctuations is different in the two cases. This may have important consequences for the eigenfunction dynamics as well as phase transition studies in many areas of complexity where Brownian ensembles appear. (paper)

  14. Mnemonic discrimination relates to perforant path integrity: An ultra-high resolution diffusion tensor imaging study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Ilana J; Stark, Craig E L

    2016-03-01

    Pattern separation describes the orthogonalization of similar inputs into unique, non-overlapping representations. This computational process is thought to serve memory by reducing interference and to be mediated by the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus. Using ultra-high in-plane resolution diffusion tensor imaging (hrDTI) in older adults, we previously demonstrated that integrity of the perforant path, which provides input to the dentate gyrus from entorhinal cortex, was associated with mnemonic discrimination, a behavioral outcome designed to load on pattern separation. The current hrDTI study assessed the specificity of this perforant path integrity-mnemonic discrimination relationship relative to other cognitive constructs (identified using a factor analysis) and white matter tracts (hippocampal cingulum, fornix, corpus callosum) in 112 healthy adults (20-87 years). Results revealed age-related declines in integrity of the perforant path and other medial temporal lobe (MTL) tracts (hippocampal cingulum, fornix). Controlling for global effects of brain aging, perforant path integrity related only to the factor that captured mnemonic discrimination performance. Comparable integrity-mnemonic discrimination relationships were also observed for the hippocampal cingulum and fornix. Thus, whereas perforant path integrity specifically relates to mnemonic discrimination, mnemonic discrimination may be mediated by a broader MTL network. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Differential paths to activism: a study of social movement organizations in Three Mile Island communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cable, S.M.

    1985-01-01

    This project compares political activists from four community protest organizations in Three Mile Island (TMI) communities that were formed as a response of the March 1979 accident at the TMI nuclear power plant. These organizations constituted four separate groups of activists concerned with the same set of grievances. The purpose of the study was to compare the activists across groups to assess differential paths to activism. The data were gathered over a three-year period from March 1979 to March 1982 and included monthly newsletters published by the organizations, newspaper accounts of relevant events; and a systematic survey of 149 of the most active participants. The thesis of differential paths to activism was supported by the data; two relatively distinct paths were found to dominate the TMI communities. In the path that dominated in communities within five miles of the plant, activists tended to be older, more conservative, and less ideologically inclined to protest prior to the accident. In the path to activism that dominated in communities further from the plant site, activists tended to be younger, more liberal, and more experienced in protests

  16. On the Right Path: The Higher Education Study of One Generation. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera, Alberto A.; La Nasa, Steven, M.; Burkum, Kurt, R.

    Data from the High School and Beyond Study were used to study the pathways taken by members of the High School Class of 1982 to a college degree. The class of 1982 followed nine different pathways to a 4-year degree, paths formed by a combination of academic resources secured in high school and the first type of postsecondary institution attended.…

  17. The direction and autonomy of interdisciplinary study and research paths in teacher education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a case study of didactic infrastructures to direct Study and Research Paths (SRP) in teacher education within the context of interdisciplinary inquiry. The disciplines of school mathematics and school biology, and their didactics, are made to interconnect through...

  18. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas; Hadwiger, Markus; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially

  19. Representing Color Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetverikov, Andrey; Campana, Gianluca; Kristjánsson, Árni

    2017-10-01

    Colors are rarely uniform, yet little is known about how people represent color distributions. We introduce a new method for studying color ensembles based on intertrial learning in visual search. Participants looked for an oddly colored diamond among diamonds with colors taken from either uniform or Gaussian color distributions. On test trials, the targets had various distances in feature space from the mean of the preceding distractor color distribution. Targets on test trials therefore served as probes into probabilistic representations of distractor colors. Test-trial response times revealed a striking similarity between the physical distribution of colors and their internal representations. The results demonstrate that the visual system represents color ensembles in a more detailed way than previously thought, coding not only mean and variance but, most surprisingly, the actual shape (uniform or Gaussian) of the distribution of colors in the environment.

  20. The intertwining paths of the density managment and riparian buffer study and the Northwest Forest Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Ruzicka; Deanna H. Olson; Klaus J. Puettmann

    2013-01-01

    Initiated simultaneously, the Density Management and Riparian Buff er Study of western Oregon and the Northwest Forest Plan have had intertwining paths related to federal forest management and policy changes in the Pacifi c Northwest over the last 15 to 20 years. We briefl y discuss the development of the Northwest Forest Plan and how it changed the way forest policy...

  1. Using the Curriculum Vita To Study the Career Paths of Scientists and Engineers: An Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Eliesh O'Neil; Dietz, James S.; Chompalov, Ivan; Bozeman, Barry; Park, Jongwon

    The usefulness of the curriculum vita (CV) as a data source for examining the career paths of scientists and engineers was studied. CVs were obtained in response to an e-mail message sent to researchers working in the area of biotechnology who were funded by the National Science Foundation (55 responses) or listed as authors (industry only) in the…

  2. Methodologies for tracking learning paths in the Making a filmmaker research study of young Nordic filmmakers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frølunde, Lisbeth; Lindstrand, Fredrik; Öhman-Gullberg, Lisa

    The aim of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, to present an outline of the ongoing research study Making a filmmaker, which examines how young Nordic filmmakers create their own learning paths along formal and/or informal contexts. Our focus in this paper is especially directed towards issues...

  3. Paths Leading to Teenage Psychiatric Symptoms and Substance Use: Developmental Epidemiological Studies in Woodlawn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellam, Sheppard G.; And Others

    Early predictors of two major areas of teenage outcome -- substance use and psychiatric symptoms -- were analyzed and specific developmental paths leading to each teenage outcome were identified in this long-term, follow-up study. Substance "use" rather than "abuse" and psychiatric "symptoms" rather than…

  4. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  5. ArrayMining: a modular web-application for microarray analysis combining ensemble and consensus methods with cross-study normalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnogor Natalio

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical analysis of DNA microarray data provides a valuable diagnostic tool for the investigation of genetic components of diseases. To take advantage of the multitude of available data sets and analysis methods, it is desirable to combine both different algorithms and data from different studies. Applying ensemble learning, consensus clustering and cross-study normalization methods for this purpose in an almost fully automated process and linking different analysis modules together under a single interface would simplify many microarray analysis tasks. Results We present ArrayMining.net, a web-application for microarray analysis that provides easy access to a wide choice of feature selection, clustering, prediction, gene set analysis and cross-study normalization methods. In contrast to other microarray-related web-tools, multiple algorithms and data sets for an analysis task can be combined using ensemble feature selection, ensemble prediction, consensus clustering and cross-platform data integration. By interlinking different analysis tools in a modular fashion, new exploratory routes become available, e.g. ensemble sample classification using features obtained from a gene set analysis and data from multiple studies. The analysis is further simplified by automatic parameter selection mechanisms and linkage to web tools and databases for functional annotation and literature mining. Conclusion ArrayMining.net is a free web-application for microarray analysis combining a broad choice of algorithms based on ensemble and consensus methods, using automatic parameter selection and integration with annotation databases.

  6. The path dependency theory: analytical framework to study institutional integration. The case of France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trouvé, Hélène; Couturier, Yves; Etheridge, Francis; Saint-Jean, Olivier; Somme, Dominique

    2010-06-30

    The literature on integration indicates the need for an enhanced theorization of institutional integration. This article proposes path dependence as an analytical framework to study the systems in which integration takes place. PRISMA proposes a model for integrating health and social care services for older adults. This model was initially tested in Quebec. The PRISMA France study gave us an opportunity to analyze institutional integration in France. A qualitative approach was used. Analyses were based on semi-structured interviews with actors of all levels of decision-making, observations of advisory board meetings, and administrative documents. Our analyses revealed the complexity and fragmentation of institutional integration. The path dependency theory, which analyzes the change capacity of institutions by taking into account their historic structures, allows analysis of this situation. The path dependency to the Bismarckian system and the incomplete reforms of gerontological policies generate the coexistence and juxtaposition of institutional systems. In such a context, no institution has sufficient ability to determine gerontology policy and build institutional integration by itself. Using path dependence as an analytical framework helps to understand the reasons why institutional integration is critical to organizational and clinical integration, and the complex construction of institutional integration in France.

  7. Career paths in physicians' postgraduate training - an eight-year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddeberg-Fischer, Barbara; Stamm, Martina; Klaghofer, Richard

    2010-10-06

    To date, there are hardly any studies on the choice of career path in medical school graduates. The present study aimed to investigate what career paths can be identified in the course of postgraduate training of physicians; what factors have an influence on the choice of a career path; and in what way the career paths are correlated with career-related factors as well as with work-life balance aspirations. The data reported originates from five questionnaire surveys of the prospective SwissMedCareer Study, beginning in 2001 (T1, last year of medical school). The study sample consisted of 358 physicians (197 females, 55%; 161 males, 45%) participating at each assessment from T2 (2003, first year of residency) to T5 (2009, seventh year of residency), answering the question: What career do you aspire to have? Furthermore, personal characteristics, chosen specialty, career motivation, mentoring experience, work-life balance as well as workload, career success and career satisfaction were assessed. Career paths were analysed with cluster analysis, and differences between clusters analysed with multivariate methods. The cluster analysis revealed four career clusters which discriminated distinctly between each other: (1) career in practice, (2) hospital career, (3) academic career, and (4) changing career goal. From T3 (third year of residency) to T5, respondents in Cluster 1-3 were rather stable in terms of their career path aspirations, while those assigned to Cluster 4 showed a high fluctuation in their career plans. Physicians in Cluster 1 showed high values in extraprofessional concerns and often consider part-time work. Cluster 2 and 3 were characterised by high instrumentality, intrinsic and extrinsic career motivation, career orientation and high career success. No cluster differences were seen in career satisfaction. In Cluster 1 and 4, females were overrepresented. Trainees should be supported to stay on the career path that best suits his/her personal and

  8. The Ensemble Kalman Filter for Groundwater Plume Characterization: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, James L; Andersen, Peter F

    2018-04-17

    The Kalman filter is an efficient data assimilation tool to refine an estimate of a state variable using measured data and the variable's correlations in space and/or time. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) (Evensen, 2004, 2009) is a Kalman filter variant that employs Monte Carlo analysis to define the correlations that help to refine the updated state. While use of EnKF in hydrology is somewhat limited, it has been successfully applied in other fields of engineering (e.g. oil reservoir modeling, weather forecasting). Here, EnKF is used to refine a simulated groundwater TCE plume that underlies the Tooele Army Depot-North (TEAD-N) in Utah, based on observations of TCE in the aquifer. The resulting EnKF-based assimilated plume is simulated forward in time to predict future plume migration. The correlations that underpin EnKF updating implicitly contain information about how the plume developed over time under the influence of complex site hydrology and variable source history, as they are predicated on multiple realizations of a well-calibrated numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The EnKF methodology is compared to an ordinary kriging-based assimilation method with respect to the accurate representation of plume concentrations in order to determine the relative efficacy of EnKF for water quality data assimilation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  9. World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beegle, Amy C.

    2012-01-01

    As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

  10. Path Dependency

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Setterfield

    2015-01-01

    Path dependency is defined, and three different specific concepts of path dependency – cumulative causation, lock in, and hysteresis – are analyzed. The relationships between path dependency and equilibrium, and path dependency and fundamental uncertainty are also discussed. Finally, a typology of dynamical systems is developed to clarify these relationships.

  11. Path Creation, Path Dependence and Breaking Away from the Path

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jens; Hedman, Jonas; Tuunainen, Virpi Kristiina

    2016-01-01

    The explanation of how and why firms succeed or fail is a recurrent research challenge. This is particularly important in the context of technological innovations. We focus on the role of historical events and decisions in explaining such success and failure. Using a case study of Nokia, we develop and extend a multi-layer path dependence framework. We identify four layers of path dependence: technical, strategic and leadership, organizational, and external collaboration. We show how path dep...

  12. Polynomial Functions Resulting from the Multiplication of Curves in the Framework of the Research and Study Paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llanos, Viviana Carolina; Otero, Maria Rita; Rojas, Emmanuel Colombo

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a research, which proposes the introduction of the teaching by Research and Study Paths (RSPs) into Argentinean secondary schools within the frame of the Anthropologic Theory of Didactics (ATD). The paths begin with the study of "Q[subscript 0]: How to operate with any curves knowing only its graphic…

  13. Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

    2016-05-05

    Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).

  14. Path-integral and Ornstein-Zernike study of quantum fluid structures on the crystallization line

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sesé, Luis M.

    2016-01-01

    Liquid neon, liquid para-hydrogen, and the quantum hard-sphere fluid are studied with path integral Monte Carlo simulations and the Ornstein-Zernike pair equation on their respective crystallization lines. The results cover the whole sets of structures in the r-space and the k-space and, for completeness, the internal energies, pressures and isothermal compressibilities. Comparison with experiment is made wherever possible, and the possibilities of establishing k-space criteria for quantum crystallization based on the path-integral centroids are discussed. In this regard, the results show that the centroid structure factor contains two significant parameters related to its main peak features (amplitude and shape) that can be useful to characterize freezing.

  15. Path-integral and Ornstein-Zernike study of quantum fluid structures on the crystallization line

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sesé, Luis M., E-mail: msese@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Ciencias y Técnicas Fisicoquímicas, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Paseo Senda del Rey 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2016-03-07

    Liquid neon, liquid para-hydrogen, and the quantum hard-sphere fluid are studied with path integral Monte Carlo simulations and the Ornstein-Zernike pair equation on their respective crystallization lines. The results cover the whole sets of structures in the r-space and the k-space and, for completeness, the internal energies, pressures and isothermal compressibilities. Comparison with experiment is made wherever possible, and the possibilities of establishing k-space criteria for quantum crystallization based on the path-integral centroids are discussed. In this regard, the results show that the centroid structure factor contains two significant parameters related to its main peak features (amplitude and shape) that can be useful to characterize freezing.

  16. A Study of Relationship between Leader Behaviors and Subordinate Job Expectancies: A Path-Goal Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sikandar Hayyat Malik

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates relationship between leader behavior (directive, supportive, participative and achievement-oriented of corporate managers and subordinates’ job expectancies using House (1974 Path-goal model of leadership. The results reveal thatleader behavior affects subordinates’ job expectancies. The situational factors (task structure, role ambiguity, stress, need for autonomy, locus of control, need for achievement and perception about abilities affect subordinates’ job expectancies (I&II.While subordinates’ attributes/characteristics (age, gender, qualification, rank, experience and length of service under the current supervisor do not affect job expectancies (I&II except for rank/position and expectancy-II. Path goal theory predicts that directive leader behavior will be more effective for the subordinates with high need for achievement because directive leader through clarifying path guides subordinates. Similarly, participative leader behavior is also effective as heconsults with subordinates in setting, clarifying and achieving goals. The results of this study reveal that there is an inverse relationship between subordinates’ job expectancy (I&II. According to Yukl (2006, for subordinates with high need for autonomy,participative leader behavior will increase the intrinsic valence of work.

  17. Study of Model Predictive Control for Path-Following Autonomous Ground Vehicle Control under Crosswind Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitri Yakub

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative study of model predictive control approaches of two-wheel steering, four-wheel steering, and a combination of two-wheel steering with direct yaw moment control manoeuvres for path-following control in autonomous car vehicle dynamics systems. Single-track mode, based on a linearized vehicle and tire model, is used. Based on a given trajectory, we drove the vehicle at low and high forward speeds and on low and high road friction surfaces for a double-lane change scenario in order to follow the desired trajectory as close as possible while rejecting the effects of wind gusts. We compared the controller based on both simple and complex bicycle models without and with the roll vehicle dynamics for different types of model predictive control manoeuvres. The simulation result showed that the model predictive control gave a better performance in terms of robustness for both forward speeds and road surface variation in autonomous path-following control. It also demonstrated that model predictive control is useful to maintain vehicle stability along the desired path and has an ability to eliminate the crosswind effect.

  18. Experimental study on engine gas-path component fault monitoring using exhaust gas electrostatic signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Jianzhong; Zuo, Hongfu; Liu, Pengpeng; Wen, Zhenhua

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the recent development in engine gas-path components health monitoring using electrostatic sensors in combination with signal-processing techniques. Two ground-based engine electrostatic monitoring experiments are reported and the exhaust gas electrostatic monitoring signal-based fault-detection method is proposed. It is found that the water washing, oil leakage and combustor linear cracking result in an increase in the activity level of the electrostatic monitoring signal, which can be detected by the electrostatic monitoring system. For on-line health monitoring of the gas-path components, a baseline model-based fault-detection method is proposed and the multivariate state estimation technique is used to establish the baseline model for the electrostatic monitoring signal. The method is applied to a data set from a turbo-shaft engine electrostatic monitoring experiment. The results of the case study show that the system with the developed method is capable of detecting the gas-path component fault in an on-line fashion. (paper)

  19. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  20. A Study of Factors that Influence First-Year Nonmusic Majors' Decisions to Participate in Music Ensembles at Small Liberal Arts Colleges in Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Ardis R.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate factors that influence first-year nonmusic majors' decisions regarding participation in music ensembles at small liberal arts colleges in Indiana. A survey questionnaire was used to gather data. The data collected was analyzed to determine significant differences between the nonmusic majors who have…

  1. Correlates of Unwanted Births in Bangladesh: A Study through Path Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Tapan Kumar; Singh, Brijesh P

    2016-01-01

    Unwanted birth is an important public health concern due to its negative association with adverse outcomes of mothers and children as well as socioeconomic development of a country. Although a number of studies have been investigated the determinants of unwanted births through logistic regression analysis, an extensive assessment using path model is lacking. In the current study, we applied path analysis to know the important covariates for unwanted births in Bangladesh. The study used data extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2011. It considered sub-sample consisted of 7,972 women who had given most recent births five years preceding the date of interview or who were currently pregnant at survey time. Correlation analysis was used to find out the significant association with unwanted births. This study provided the factors affecting unwanted births in Bangladesh. The path model was used to determine the direct, indirect and total effects of socio-demographic factors on unwanted births. The result exhibited that more than one-tenth of the recent births were unwanted in Bangladesh. The differentials of unwanted births were women's age, education, age at marriage, religion, socioeconomic status, exposure of mass-media and use of family planning. In correlation analysis, it showed that unwanted births were positively correlated with women age and place of residence and these relationships were significant. On the contrary, unwanted births were inversely significantly correlated with education and social status. The total effects of endogenous variables such as women age, place of residence and use of family planning methods had favorable effect on unwanted births. Policymakers and program planners need to design programs and services carefully to reduce unwanted births in Bangladesh, especially, service should focus on helping those groups of women who were identified in the analysis as being at increased risks of unwanted births- older women

  2. Correlates of Unwanted Births in Bangladesh: A Study through Path Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tapan Kumar Roy

    Full Text Available Unwanted birth is an important public health concern due to its negative association with adverse outcomes of mothers and children as well as socioeconomic development of a country. Although a number of studies have been investigated the determinants of unwanted births through logistic regression analysis, an extensive assessment using path model is lacking. In the current study, we applied path analysis to know the important covariates for unwanted births in Bangladesh.The study used data extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS 2011. It considered sub-sample consisted of 7,972 women who had given most recent births five years preceding the date of interview or who were currently pregnant at survey time. Correlation analysis was used to find out the significant association with unwanted births. This study provided the factors affecting unwanted births in Bangladesh. The path model was used to determine the direct, indirect and total effects of socio-demographic factors on unwanted births.The result exhibited that more than one-tenth of the recent births were unwanted in Bangladesh. The differentials of unwanted births were women's age, education, age at marriage, religion, socioeconomic status, exposure of mass-media and use of family planning. In correlation analysis, it showed that unwanted births were positively correlated with women age and place of residence and these relationships were significant. On the contrary, unwanted births were inversely significantly correlated with education and social status. The total effects of endogenous variables such as women age, place of residence and use of family planning methods had favorable effect on unwanted births.Policymakers and program planners need to design programs and services carefully to reduce unwanted births in Bangladesh, especially, service should focus on helping those groups of women who were identified in the analysis as being at increased risks of unwanted

  3. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  4. Single-trial estimation of stimulus and spike-history effects on time-varying ensemble spiking activity of multiple neurons: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimazaki, Hideaki

    2013-01-01

    Neurons in cortical circuits exhibit coordinated spiking activity, and can produce correlated synchronous spikes during behavior and cognition. We recently developed a method for estimating the dynamics of correlated ensemble activity by combining a model of simultaneous neuronal interactions (e.g., a spin-glass model) with a state-space method (Shimazaki et al. 2012 PLoS Comput Biol 8 e1002385). This method allows us to estimate stimulus-evoked dynamics of neuronal interactions which is reproducible in repeated trials under identical experimental conditions. However, the method may not be suitable for detecting stimulus responses if the neuronal dynamics exhibits significant variability across trials. In addition, the previous model does not include effects of past spiking activity of the neurons on the current state of ensemble activity. In this study, we develop a parametric method for simultaneously estimating the stimulus and spike-history effects on the ensemble activity from single-trial data even if the neurons exhibit dynamics that is largely unrelated to these effects. For this goal, we model ensemble neuronal activity as a latent process and include the stimulus and spike-history effects as exogenous inputs to the latent process. We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm that simultaneously achieves estimation of the latent process, stimulus responses, and spike-history effects. The proposed method is useful to analyze an interaction of internal cortical states and sensory evoked activity

  5. An empirical study of ensemble-based semi-supervised learning approaches for imbalanced splice site datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanescu, Ana; Caragea, Doina

    2015-01-01

    Recent biochemical advances have led to inexpensive, time-efficient production of massive volumes of raw genomic data. Traditional machine learning approaches to genome annotation typically rely on large amounts of labeled data. The process of labeling data can be expensive, as it requires domain knowledge and expert involvement. Semi-supervised learning approaches that can make use of unlabeled data, in addition to small amounts of labeled data, can help reduce the costs associated with labeling. In this context, we focus on the problem of predicting splice sites in a genome using semi-supervised learning approaches. This is a challenging problem, due to the highly imbalanced distribution of the data, i.e., small number of splice sites as compared to the number of non-splice sites. To address this challenge, we propose to use ensembles of semi-supervised classifiers, specifically self-training and co-training classifiers. Our experiments on five highly imbalanced splice site datasets, with positive to negative ratios of 1-to-99, showed that the ensemble-based semi-supervised approaches represent a good choice, even when the amount of labeled data consists of less than 1% of all training data. In particular, we found that ensembles of co-training and self-training classifiers that dynamically balance the set of labeled instances during the semi-supervised iterations show improvements over the corresponding supervised ensemble baselines. In the presence of limited amounts of labeled data, ensemble-based semi-supervised approaches can successfully leverage the unlabeled data to enhance supervised ensembles learned from highly imbalanced data distributions. Given that such distributions are common for many biological sequence classification problems, our work can be seen as a stepping stone towards more sophisticated ensemble-based approaches to biological sequence annotation in a semi-supervised framework.

  6. Hierarchy of Dysfunction Related to Dressing Performance in Stroke Patients: A Path Analysis Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Takaaki; Nagayama, Hirofumi; Sato, Atsushi; Yamamoto, Yuichi; Yamane, Kazuhiro; Otsuki, Koji; Tsuchiya, Kenji; Tozato, Fusae

    2016-01-01

    Previous reports indicated that various dysfunctions caused by stroke affect the level of independence in dressing. These dysfunctions can be hierarchical, and these effects on dressing performance can be complicated in stroke patients. However, there are no published reports focusing on the hierarchical structure of the relationships between the activities of daily living and balance function, motor and sensory functions of the affected lower limb, strength of the abdominal muscles and knee extension on the unaffected side, and visuospatial deficits. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the hierarchical and causal relationships between dressing performance and these dysfunctions in stroke patients. This retrospective study included 104 first-time stroke patients. The causal relationship between the dressing performance and age, time post stroke, balance function, motor and sensory functions of the affected lower limb, strength of the abdominal muscles and knee extension on the unaffected side, and visuospatial deficits were examined using path analysis. A hypothetical path model was created based on previous studies, and the goodness of fit between the data and model were verified. A modified path model was created that achieved an almost perfect fit to the data. Balance function and abdominal muscle strength have direct effects on dressing performance, with standardized direct effect estimates of 0.78 and 0.15, respectively. Age, motor and sensory functions of the affected lower limb, and strength of abdominal muscle and knee extension on the unaffected side have indirect effects on dressing by influencing balance function. Our results suggest that dressing performance depends strongly on balance function, and it is mainly influenced by the motor function of the affected lower limb.

  7. Hierarchy of Dysfunction Related to Dressing Performance in Stroke Patients: A Path Analysis Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takaaki Fujita

    Full Text Available Previous reports indicated that various dysfunctions caused by stroke affect the level of independence in dressing. These dysfunctions can be hierarchical, and these effects on dressing performance can be complicated in stroke patients. However, there are no published reports focusing on the hierarchical structure of the relationships between the activities of daily living and balance function, motor and sensory functions of the affected lower limb, strength of the abdominal muscles and knee extension on the unaffected side, and visuospatial deficits. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the hierarchical and causal relationships between dressing performance and these dysfunctions in stroke patients. This retrospective study included 104 first-time stroke patients. The causal relationship between the dressing performance and age, time post stroke, balance function, motor and sensory functions of the affected lower limb, strength of the abdominal muscles and knee extension on the unaffected side, and visuospatial deficits were examined using path analysis. A hypothetical path model was created based on previous studies, and the goodness of fit between the data and model were verified. A modified path model was created that achieved an almost perfect fit to the data. Balance function and abdominal muscle strength have direct effects on dressing performance, with standardized direct effect estimates of 0.78 and 0.15, respectively. Age, motor and sensory functions of the affected lower limb, and strength of abdominal muscle and knee extension on the unaffected side have indirect effects on dressing by influencing balance function. Our results suggest that dressing performance depends strongly on balance function, and it is mainly influenced by the motor function of the affected lower limb.

  8. Electrical Signal Path Study and Component Assay for the MAJORANA N-Type Segmented Contact Detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amman, Mark; Bergevin, Marc; Chan, Yuen-Dat; Detwiler, Jason A.; Fujikawa, Brian .; Lesko, Kevin T.; Luke, Paul N.; Prior, Gersende; Poon, Alan W.; Smith, Alan R.; Vetter, Kai; Yaver, Harold; Zimmermann, Sergio

    2009-02-24

    The purpose of the present electrical signal path study is to explore the various issues related to the deployment of highly-segmented low-background Ge detectors for the MAJORANA double-beta decay experiment. A significant challenge is to simultaneously satisfy competing requirements for the mechanical design, electrical readout performance, and radiopurity specifications from the MAJORANA project. Common to all rare search experiments, there is a very stringent limit on the acceptable radioactivity level of all the electronics components involved. Some of the findings are summarized in this report.

  9. Electrical Signal Path Study and Component Assay for the MAJORANA N-Type Segmented Contact Detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amman, Mark; Bergevin, Marc; Chan, Yuen-Dat; Detwiler, Jason A.; Fujikawa, Brian; Lesko, Kevin T.; Luke, Paul N.; Prior, Gersende; Poon, Alan W.; Smith, Alan R.; Vetter, Kai; Yaver, Harold; Zimmermann, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the present electrical signal path study is to explore the various issues related to the deployment of highly-segmented low-background Ge detectors for the MAJORANA double-beta decay experiment. A significant challenge is to simultaneously satisfy competing requirements for the mechanical design, electrical readout performance, and radiopurity specifications from the MAJORANA project. Common to all rare search experiments, there is a very stringent limit on the acceptable radioactivity level of all the electronics components involved. Some of the findings are summarized in this report.

  10. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold

    2015-01-01

    , but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24...

  11. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  12. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-29

    Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

  13. A class of energy-based ensembles in Tsallis statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandrashekar, R; Naina Mohammed, S S

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive investigation is carried out on the class of energy-based ensembles. The eight ensembles are divided into two main classes. In the isothermal class of ensembles the individual members are at the same temperature. A unified framework is evolved to describe the four isothermal ensembles using the currently accepted third constraint formalism. The isothermal–isobaric, grand canonical and generalized ensembles are illustrated through a study of the classical nonrelativistic and extreme relativistic ideal gas models. An exact calculation is possible only in the case of the isothermal–isobaric ensemble. The study of the ideal gas models in the grand canonical and the generalized ensembles has been carried out using a perturbative procedure with the nonextensivity parameter (1 − q) as the expansion parameter. Though all the thermodynamic quantities have been computed up to a particular order in (1 − q) the procedure can be extended up to any arbitrary order in the expansion parameter. In the adiabatic class of ensembles the individual members of the ensemble have the same value of the heat function and a unified formulation to described all four ensembles is given. The nonrelativistic and the extreme relativistic ideal gases are studied in the isoenthalpic–isobaric ensemble, the adiabatic ensemble with number fluctuations and the adiabatic ensemble with number and particle fluctuations

  14. Personal, musical and social benefits of singing in a community ensemble: Three case studies in Melbourne (Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dawn Joseph

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Australia has a diverse, multilayered society that reflects its rich musical life. There are many community choirs formed by various cultural and linguistically diverse groups. This article is part of an ongoing project, Well-being and ageing: community, diversity and the arts (since 2008, undertaken by Deakin University and Monash University, that explores the cultural diversity within Australian society and how active music engagement fosters well-being. The singing groups selected for this discussion are the Skylarkers, the Bosnian Behar Choir, and the Coro Furlan. The Skylarkers and the Bosnian Behar Choir are mixed groups who respectively perform popular music from their generation and celebrate their culture through music. The Coro Furlan is an Italian male choir who understand themselves as custodians of their heritage. In these interpretative, qualitative case studies semi-structured interviews were undertaken and analyzed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. In this approach there is an exploration of participants’ understanding of their lived experiences. The analysis of the combined data identified musical and social benefits that contribute to participants’ sense of individual well-being. Musical benefits occurred through sharing, learning and singing together. Social benefits included opportunities to build friendships, overcome isolation and gain a sense of validation. Many found that singing enhanced their health and happiness. Active music making in community choirs and music ensembles continues to be an effective way to support individuals, build community, and share culture and heritage.

  15. Microcanonical ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.

    1982-01-01

    A new formulation of lattice gauge theory without explicit path integrals or sums is obtained by using the microcanonical ensemble of statistical mechanics. Expectation values in the new formalism are calculated by solving a large set of coupled, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations. The average plaquette for compact electrodynamics calculated in this fashion agrees with standard Monte Carlo results. Possible advantages of the microcanonical method in applications to fermionic systems are discussed

  16. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  17. Entropy of network ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianconi, Ginestra

    2009-03-01

    In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

  18. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey

    2016-01-06

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  19. The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

    2015-01-01

    We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  20. Path Expressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-06-01

    Traditionally, synchronization of concurrent processes is coded in line by operations on semaphores or similar objects. Path expressions move the...discussion about a variety of synchronization primitives . An analysis of their relative power is found in [3]. Path expressions do not introduce yet...another synchronization primitive . A path expression relates to such primitives as a for- or while-statement of an ALGOL-like language relates to a JUMP

  1. Study on the dominant reaction path in nucleosynthesis during stellar evolution by means of the Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, K.; Hashizume, K.; Wada, T.; Ohta, M.; Suda, T.; Nishimura, T.; Fujimoto, M. Y.; Kato, K.; Aikawa, M.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a Monte Carlo method to study the reaction paths in nucleosynthesis during stellar evolution. Determination of reaction paths is important to obtain the physical picture of stellar evolution. The combination of network calculation and our method gives us a better understanding of physical picture. We apply our method to the case of the helium shell flash model in the extremely metal poor star

  2. Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

  3. A study on reducing update frequency of the forecast samples in the ensemble-based 4DVar data assimilation method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shao, Aimei; Xu, Daosheng [Lanzhou Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China). State Key Lab. of Severe Weather; Qiu, Xiaobin [Lanzhou Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Science (China); Qiu, Chongjian [Lanzhou Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province

    2013-02-15

    In the ensemble-based four dimensional variational assimilation method (SVD-En4DVar), a singular value decomposition (SVD) technique is used to select the leading eigenvectors and the analysis variables are expressed as the orthogonal bases expansion of the eigenvectors. The experiments with a two-dimensional shallow-water equation model and simulated observations show that the truncation error and rejection of observed signals due to the reduced-dimensional reconstruction of the analysis variable are the major factors that damage the analysis when the ensemble size is not large enough. However, a larger-sized ensemble is daunting computational burden. Experiments with a shallow-water equation model also show that the forecast error covariances remain relatively constant over time. For that reason, we propose an approach that increases the members of the forecast ensemble while reducing the update frequency of the forecast error covariance in order to increase analysis accuracy and to reduce the computational cost. A series of experiments were conducted with the shallow-water equation model to test the efficiency of this approach. The experimental results indicate that this approach is promising. Further experiments with the WRF model show that this approach is also suitable for the real atmospheric data assimilation problem, but the update frequency of the forecast error covariances should not be too low. (orig.)

  4. Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

  5. An exact approach for studying cargo transport by an ensemble of molecular motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Materassi, Donatello; Roychowdhury, Subhrajit; Hays, Thomas; Salapaka, Murti

    2013-01-01

    Intracellular transport is crucial for many cellular processes where a large fraction of the cargo is transferred by motor-proteins over a network of microtubules. Malfunctions in the transport mechanism underlie a number of medical maladies. Existing methods for studying how motor-proteins coordinate the transfer of a shared cargo over a microtubule are either analytical or are based on Monte-Carlo simulations. Approaches that yield analytical results, while providing unique insights into transport mechanism, make simplifying assumptions, where a detailed characterization of important transport modalities is difficult to reach. On the other hand, Monte-Carlo based simulations can incorporate detailed characteristics of the transport mechanism; however, the quality of the results depend on the number and quality of simulation runs used in arriving at results. Here, for example, it is difficult to simulate and study rare-events that can trigger abnormalities in transport. In this article, a semi-analytical methodology that determines the probability distribution function of motor-protein behavior in an exact manner is developed. The method utilizes a finite-dimensional projection of the underlying infinite-dimensional Markov model, which retains the Markov property, and enables the detailed and exact determination of motor configurations, from which meaningful inferences on transport characteristics of the original model can be derived. Under this novel probabilistic approach new insights about the mechanisms of action of these proteins are found, suggesting hypothesis about their behavior and driving the design and realization of new experiments. The advantages provided in accuracy and efficiency make it possible to detect rare events in the motor protein dynamics, that could otherwise pass undetected using standard simulation methods. In this respect, the model has allowed to provide a possible explanation for possible mechanisms under which motor proteins could

  6. Study of Self Medication In Patients With Diabetes Using Path Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Rezaei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Self-medication is a behavior in which one tries to solve his/her health condition or problem without professional help. With regard to mortality and severe complications of diabetes, inappropriate self- medication can have severe consequences but proper planning can control this behavior to improve the patient′s health. In this study, the effect of each factor on self-medication in patients with diabetes is determined using path analysis technique. This cross-sectional study was conducted in the Kermanshah diabetes center. The number of patients with diabetes interviewed were 500. Each patient′s score of self-medication were determined according to a questionnaire, with a higher score showing greater self-medication. Demographic information and scores of trust to doctors, medical expenses, others′ recommendations and busy work environment as predictor variables were measured and analyzed using SPSS 16.0. Based on the questionnaire scores, two patients (0.4% largely, 191 (38.7% moderately and 300 (60.9% slightly were on self-medication. The variable; mistrust of doctors only directly, variables; age, the duration of diabetes and family history of heart disease only indirectly and variables; busy work environment, medical expenses, others′ recommendations and family history of hypertension directly and indirectly were related to self-medication. The results of this study showed that more than 60% of patients with diabetes had low self-medication, which represents the success of education principles and methods. Extracting causal relationships among the complexity of factors influencing a disease requires powerful statistical tools such as path analysis.

  7. Conformation-related exciton localization and charge-pair formation in polythiophenes: ensemble and single-molecule study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Toshikazu; Habuchi, Satoshi; Ogino, Kenji; Vacha, Martin

    2009-09-10

    We study conformation-dependent photophysical properties of polythiophene (PT) by molecular dynamics simulations and by ensemble and single-molecule optical experiments. We use a graft copolymer consisting of a polythiophene backbone and long polystyrene branches and compare its properties with those obtained on the same polythiophene derivative without the side chains. Coarse-grain molecular dynamics simulations show that in a poor solvent, the PT without the side chains (PT-R) forms a globulelike conformation in which distances between any two conjugated segments on the chain are within the Forster radius for efficient energy transfer. In the PT with the polystyrene branches (PT-PS), the polymer main PT chain retains an extended coillike conformation, even in a poor solvent, and the calculated distances between conjugated segments favor energy transfer only between a few neighboring chromophores. The theoretical predictions are confirmed by measurements of fluorescence anisotropy and fluorescence blinking of the polymers' single chains. High anisotropy ratios and two-state blinking in PT-R are due to localization of the exciton on a single conjugated segment. These signatures of exciton localization are absent in single chains of PT-PS. Electric-field-induced quenching measured as a function of concentration of PT dispersed in an inert matrix showed that in well-isolated chains of PT-PS, the exciton dissociation is an intrachain process and that aggregation of the PT-R chains causes an increase in quenching due to the onset of interchain interactions. Measurements of the field-induced quenching on single chains indicate that in PT-R, the exciton dissociation is a slower process that takes place only after the exciton is localized on one conjugated segment.

  8. Comparison of apical extrusion of intracanal bacteria by various glide-path establishing systems: an in vitro study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Dagna

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study compared the amount of apically extruded bacteria during the glide-path preparation by using multi-file and single-file glide-path establishing nickel-titanium (NiTi rotary systems. Materials and Methods Sixty mandibular first molar teeth were used to prepare the test apparatus. They were decoronated, blocked into glass vials, sterilized in ethylene oxide gas, infected with a pure culture of Enterococcus faecalis, randomly assigned to 5 experimental groups, and then prepared using manual stainless-steel files (group KF and glide-path establishing NiTi rotary files (group PF with PathFiles, group GF with G-Files, group PG with ProGlider, and group OG with One G. At the end of canal preparation, 0.01 mL NaCl solution was taken from the experimental vials. The suspension was plated on brain heart infusion agar and colonies of bacteria were counted, and the results were given as number of colony-forming units (CFU. Results The manual instrumentation technique tested in group KF extruded the highest number of bacteria compared to the other 4 groups (p < 0.05. The 4 groups using rotary glide-path establishing instruments extruded similar amounts of bacteria. Conclusions All glide-path establishment instrument systems tested caused a measurable apical extrusion of bacteria. The manual glide-path preparation showed the highest number of bacteria extruded compared to the other NiTi glide-path establishing instruments.

  9. Global and Local Path Planning Study in a ROS-Based Research Platform for Autonomous Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Marin-Plaza

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to integrate and analyze the performance of a path planning method based on Time Elastic Bands (TEB in real research platform based on Ackermann model. Moreover, it will be proved that all modules related to the navigation can coexist and work together to achieve the goal point without any collision. The study is done by analyzing the trajectory generated from global and local planners. The software prototyping tool is Robot Operating System (ROS from Open Source Robotics Foundation and the research platform is the iCab (Intelligent Campus Automobile from University Carlos III. This work has been validated from a test inside the campus where the iCab has performed the navigation between the starting point and the goal point without any collision. During the experiment, we proved the low sensitivity of the TEB method to variations of the vehicle model configuration and constraints.

  10. Searching for a Path: A Bibliometric study on Innovation and Technological Capabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Heitor De Avila Santos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Innovation is recognize as a matter of survival and success to firms and technological capabilities can lead to an innovative behavior by using technological resources and competences. The literature about technological capability and innovation is vast, counting on several approaches and a large number of researchers involved within. Based on this, our aim is to use a bibliometrics approach to map out the authors, institutions, journals and the evolution of the publication as well, to provide the path needed to build a theoretical framework about the theme. We held this research on the Scopus database using a standard search protocol to perform the selection of the sample. Our results indicates an emerging field of study and a large number papers and citations concentrated in few journals. Most cited authors are related to seminal works on the subject and most cited papers are ones from late 90’s and early 2000. 

  11. Rumination's effect on suicide ideation through grit and gratitude: A path analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Evan J; Kraines, Morganne A; Tucker, Raymond P; Wingate, LaRicka R; Wells, Tony T; Grant, DeMond M

    2017-05-01

    The current study documents the relationship between suicide ideation, grit and gratitude, and rumination subtypes of brooding and reflection. The relationship between rumination and suicide ideation has been well documented and previous research has demonstrated that grit and gratitude are protective factors against suicide. We hypothesized that both subtypes of rumination would have an indirect effect on suicide ideation through levels of grit and gratitude. Results of a conditional indirect effects path analysis indicated that brooding was indirectly related to suicide ideation through gratitude. Brooding interacted with grit such that it only predicted suicide ideation at low levels of grit. Reflection interacted with gratitude to predict levels of grit. Results suggest that brooding may impact suicide risk and resilience through its effect on gratitude, indicating important cognitive-behavioral targets for suicide prevention strategies. These results extend the literature about the relationship between well known risk factors for suicide and protective factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A pilot study of transcription unit analysis in rice using oligonucleotide tiling-path microarray

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolc, Viktor; Li, Lei; Wang, Xiangfeng

    2005-01-01

    As the international efforts to sequence the rice genome are completed, an immediate challenge and opportunity is to comprehensively and accurately define all transcription units in the rice genome. Here we describe a strategy of using high-density oligonucleotide tiling-path microarrays to map...... transcription of the japonica rice genome. In a pilot experiment to test this approach, one array representing the reverse strand of the last 11.2 Mb sequence of chromosome 10 was analyzed in detail based on a mathematical model developed in this study. Analysis of the array data detected 77% of the reference...... gene models in a mixture of four RNA populations. Moreover, significant transcriptional activities were found in many of the previously annotated intergenic regions. These preliminary results demonstrate the utility of genome tiling microarrays in evaluating annotated rice gene models...

  13. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  14. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  15. Caregiver's education level and child's dental caries in African Americans: A path analytic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heima, Masahiro; Lee, Wonik; Milgrom, Peter; Nelson, Suchitra

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of caregiver education level on children's dental caries mediated by both caregiver and child oral health behaviors. Participants were 423 low-income African American kindergarteners and their caregivers who were part of a school-based randomized clinical trial. Path analysis tested the hypothesis that caregiver education level affected untreated dental caries and cumulative overall caries experience (decayed or filled teeth) through the mediating influence of frequency of dental visits, use of routine care, and frequency of toothbrushing for both caregiver and child. The results supported the hypothesis: Caregivers who completed high school were 1.76 times more likely to visit dentists themselves compared with those who did not complete high school (e0.56=1.76, 95%CI: 1.03-2.99), which in turn was associated with 5.78 times greater odds of dental visits among their children (e1.76=5.78, 95%CI: 3.53-9.48). Children's dental visits, subsequently, were associated with 26% fewer untreated decayed teeth compared with children without dental visits (e-0.31=0.74, 95%CI: 0.60-0.91). However, this path was not present in the model with overall caries experience. Additionally, caregiver education level was directly associated with 34% less untreated decayed teeth (e-0.42=0.66, 95% CI: 0.54-0.79) and 28% less decayed or filled teeth (e-0.32=0.72, 95%CI: 0.60-0.88) among the children. This study overcomes important conceptual and analytic limitations in the existing literature. The findings confirm the role of caregiver education in child dental caries and indicate that caregiver's behavioral factors are important mediators of child oral health. PMID:25661111

  16. Radionuclide transport paths in the nearfield - a KBS-3 concept study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pusch, R.

    1990-07-01

    The general scope of the study has been to identify and define major paths for radionuclide transport from KBS3 canisters, focusing on the nearfield rock. A primary purpose was to document the hydraulic properties of the 'disturbed zones' around blasted tunnels and it is concluded from compilation of theoretical data and field experiment recording that stress relief and blasting effects combine to form a previous zone that extends to about 1 m from the tunnel periphery. It has an average, isotropic hydraulic conductivity of no less than 10 -8 m/s. A second major purpose of the study was to generalize the structure of granitic rock with respect to water-bearing fractures. Forsmark, Finnsjoen, and Stripa data have been considered and found to support the idea of rather regular 'orthogonal' fracture systems with relatively large spacings. The hydraulically active part of the fractures, which can be characterized by simple statistical distributions of persistence, spacing, and aperture, is formed by channels, which can be taken as plane, straight stripes with constant width and aperture. The width can be assumed on the basis of field observations while the aperture is estimated from the bulk conductivity and the geometry of the fracture network. The major transport paths of the rock have been concretized and combined to form a general simplified model intended for calculation of radionuclide transport through water flow and through diffusion through continuous water passages. This model comprises of a circumscribing pervious zone of 'wall disturbance' around the deposition holes in addition to the fracture channels. (author)

  17. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Nikunj C.

    2004-01-01

    Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

  18. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  19. Sensitivity study of optimal CO2 emission paths using a simplified structural integrated assessment model (SIAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasselmann, K.; Hasselmann, S.; Giering, R.; Ocana, V.; Storch, H. von

    1997-01-01

    A structurally highly simplified, globally integrated coupled climate-economic costs model SIAM (Structural Integrated Assessment Model) is used to compute optimal paths of global CO 2 emissions that minimize the net sum of climate damage and mitigation costs. It studies the sensitivity of the computed optimal emission paths. The climate module is represented by a linearized impulse-response model calibrated against a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model and a three-dimensional global carbon-cycle model. The cost terms are presented by expressions designed with respect to input assumptions. These include the discount rates for mitigation and damage costs, the inertia of the socio-economic system, and the dependence of climate damages on the changes in temperature and the rate of change of temperature. Different assumptions regarding these parameters are believed to cause the marked divergences of existing cost-benefit analyses. The long memory of the climate system implies that very long time horizons of several hundred years need to be considered to optimize CO 2 emissions on time scales relevant for a policy of sustainable development. Cost-benefit analyses over shorter time scales of a century or two can lead to dangerous underestimates of the long term climate impact of increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. To avert a major long term global warming, CO 2 emissions need to be reduced ultimately to very low levels. This may be done slowly but should not be interpreted as providing a time cushion for inaction: the transition becomes more costly the longer the necessary mitigation policies are delayed. However, the long time horizon provides adequate flexibility for later adjustments. Short term energy conservation alone is insufficient and can be viewed only as a useful measure in support of the necessary long term transition to carbon-free energy technologies. 46 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  20. Short-cut transport path for Asian dust directly to the Arctic: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Zhongwei; Huang, Jianping; Wang, Shanshan; Zhou, Tian; Jin, Hongchun; Hayasaka, Tadahiro

    2015-01-01

    Asian dust can be transported long distances from the Taklimakan or Gobi desert to North America across the Pacific Ocean, and it has been found to have a significant impact on ecosystems, climate, and human health. Although it is well known that Asian dust is transported all over the globe, there are limited observations reporting Asian dust transported to the Arctic. We report a case study of a large-scale heavy dust storm over East Asia on 19 March 2010, as shown by ground-based and space-borne multi-sensor observations, as well as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and HYSPLIT trajectories. Our analysis suggests that Asian dust aerosols were transported from northwest China to the Arctic within 5 days, crossing eastern China, Japan and Siberia before reaching the Arctic. The results indicate that Asian dust can be transported for long distances along a previously unreported transport path. Evidence from other dust events over the past decade (2001–2010) also supports our results, indicating that dust from 25.2% of Asian dust events has potentially been transported directly to the Arctic. The transport of Asian dust to the Arctic is due to cyclones and the enhanced East Asia Trough (EAT), which are very common synoptic systems over East Asia. This suggests that many other large dust events would have generated long-range transport of dust to the Arctic along this path in the past. Thus, Asian dust potentially affects the Arctic climate and ecosystem, making climate change in the Arctic much more complex to be fully understood. (letter)

  1. The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Xuanmin; Pang Shengshi; Wu Shengjun; Liu Quanhui

    2011-01-01

    In this Letter, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called ensemble classicality based on classical cloning strategy (ECCC) to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states has a unit ECCC, while a general ensemble can have a ECCC less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of the ensemble used in a quantum key distribution (QKD) protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key. - Highlights: → A quantity is defined to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. → The classicality of an ensemble is closely related to the cloning performance. → Another quantity is also defined to investigate how quantum an ensemble is. → This quantity gives the lower bound of the error rate in a QKD protocol.

  2. Unique Path Partitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bessenrodt, Christine; Olsson, Jørn Børling; Sellers, James A.

    2013-01-01

    We give a complete classification of the unique path partitions and study congruence properties of the function which enumerates such partitions.......We give a complete classification of the unique path partitions and study congruence properties of the function which enumerates such partitions....

  3. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

  4. Ensemble averaged two-phase flow numerical simulation in vertical ducts for the void-studying behavior in BWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohsen Sharifpur; Mahmoud Salehi; Ali Nouri Brojerdi; Ali Arefmanesh

    2003-01-01

    Investigation upon generation of vapor in the two-phase flow and predication of its behaviour is an important problem in nuclear industries. Here, the use of the ensemble averaging is to drive the governing equations for each phase in the bubbly two phase flow (two fluid model) and to simulate the water channel inside the four fuel rods along the vertical line. The governing equations will be simplified by having the experience on BWRs and data, which are obtained to find the distribution of void fraction, velocity and other parameters for each phase along the tube. Finally, we compare the results with the simulated results obtained from RELAP 5 Mode 2. The advantage of this work is to offer a new technique to solve the ensemble averaged two-phase flow by imposing the energy balance equation rather than to use the ordinary energy equations. (author)

  5. Fractional path planning and path tracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melchior, P.; Jallouli-Khlif, R.; Metoui, B.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the main results of the application of fractional approach in path planning and path tracking. A new robust path planning design for mobile robot was studied in dynamic environment. The normalized attractive force applied to the robot is based on a fictitious fractional attractive potential. This method allows to obtain robust path planning despite robot mass variation. The danger level of each obstacles is characterized by the fractional order of the repulsive potential of the obstacles. Under these conditions, the robot dynamic behavior was studied by analyzing its X - Y path planning with dynamic target or dynamic obstacles. The case of simultaneously mobile obstacles and target is also considered. The influence of the robot mass variation is studied and the robustness analysis of the obtained path shows the robustness improvement due to the non integer order properties. Pre shaping approach is used to reduce system vibration in motion control. Desired systems inputs are altered so that the system finishes the requested move without residual vibration. This technique, developed by N.C. Singer and W.P.Seering, is used for flexible structure control, particularly in the aerospace field. In a previous work, this method was extended for explicit fractional derivative systems and applied to second generation CRONE control, the robustness was also studied. CRONE (the French acronym of C ommande Robuste d'Ordre Non Entier ) control system design is a frequency-domain based methodology using complex fractional integration.

  6. An ab initio study on the transition paths from graphite to diamond under pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Xiao; Zhou Xiangfeng; Wang Huitian; Qian Guangrui; Zhao Zhisheng; Tian Yongjun

    2013-01-01

    We calculate and compare the transition paths from graphite to two types of diamond using the variable cell nudged elastic band method. For the phase transition from graphite to cubic diamond, we analyze in detail how the π bonds transit to the σ bonds in an electronic structure. Meanwhile, a new transition path with a lower energy barrier for the transformation from graphite to hexagonal diamond is discovered. The path has its own peculiar sp 2 –sp 3 bonding configurations, serving as a transition state. Further calculation suggests that the sp 2 –sp 3 transition state represents an expected general phenomenon for cold-compressed graphite. (paper)

  7. Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of

  8. An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland: skill, case studies and scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Addor

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on limited-area atmospheric forecasts provided by the deterministic model COSMO-7 and the probabilistic model COSMO-LEPS. These atmospheric forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH, coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS. The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which to compare the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation.

    To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added-value conveyed by the probability information, a reforecast was made for the period June 2007 to December 2009 for the Sihl catchment (336 km2. Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain can be of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that overall COSMO-LEPS-based hydrological forecasts outperforms their COSMO-7-based counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts, as shown by comparisons with a reference run driven by observed meteorological parameters. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. The two most intense events of the study period are investigated utilising a novel graphical representation of probability forecasts, and are used

  9. Bridging the spectral divide: a case study with PAGES2k, the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble and proxy system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, F.; Emile-Geay, J.; Ault, T.; McKay, N.; Dee, S.

    2017-12-01

    A grand challenge for paleoclimatology is to constrain climate model behavior on timescales longer than the instrumental record. Of particular interest is the spectrum of temperature as sensed by climate proxies. The "continuum" of climate variability [Huybers & Curry, Nature 2006] is often characterized by its scaling exponent β , where the spectral density S and the frequency f satisfy the power law S ∝ f-β . Recent studies have voiced concern that climate models underestimate scaling behavior compared to proxies [Laepple & Huybers, PNAS 2014]. Part of this discrepancy is known to lie in the complex processes whereby proxies transform climate signals [Dee et al, EPSL in press], yet many questions remain open. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation [PAGES 2k Consortium, Sci Data 2017] to characterize scaling behavior over the Common Era using an interpolation-free method [Kirchner & Neal, PNAS 2013]. Proxy spectra are compared to spectra derived from the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble [Otto-Bliesner et al, BAMS 2016], using: (a) a naive model where proxies are assumed linearly related to annual temperature vs (b) proxy system models [Evans et al, QSR 2013] of varying complexity. Scaling behavior varies considerably by archive: on average the strongest centennial slopes are observed for lake sediments (β =1.2), while the smallest are observed for glacier ice (β =0.24). Results confirm that the CESM Last Millennium simulation (LM) exhibits decadal-centennial scaling closer to proxy spectra than the pre-industrial control run (PI): the latter shows a "blue" spectrum (β 0), suggesting that forcings are essential to reduce the spectral divide. Yet, even with forcings, LM spectra are flatter than the proxy spectra. Subsequent work will investigate the roles of seasonal sensitivity (trees, foraminifera, alkenones), multivariate influences (corals, trees), detrending (trees) and post-depositional processes (ice cores, lake & marine sediments) on spectral

  10. Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reason L. Machete

    2016-12-01

    its relative information content (in bits using a proper skill score. Doubling the ensemble size is demonstrated to yield a non-trivial increase in the information content (forecast skill for an ensemble with well over 16 members; this result stands in forecasting a mathematical system and a physical system. Indeed, even at the largest ensemble sizes considered (128 and 256, there are lead times where the forecast information is still increasing with ensemble size. Ultimately, model error will limit the value of ever larger ensembles. No support is found, however, for limiting design studies to the sizes commonly found in seasonal and climate studies. It is suggested that ensemble size be considered more explicitly in future design studies of forecast systems on all time scales.

  11. The Effect of Diabetes Medication on Cognitive Function: Evidence from the PATH Through Life Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushpani M. Herath

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the effect of diabetes treatment on change of measures of specific cognitive domains over 4 years. Research Design and Methods. The sample was drawn from a population-based cohort study in Australia (the PATH Through Life Study and comprised 1814 individuals aged 65–69 years at first measurement, of whom 211 were diagnosed with diabetes. Cognitive function was measured using 10 neuropsychological tests. The effect of type of diabetes treatment (diet, oral hypoglycemic agents, and insulin on measures of specific cognitive domains was assessed using Generalized Linear Models adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking, physical activity level, BMI, and hypertension. Results. Comparison of cognitive function between diabetes treatment groups showed no significant effect of type of pharmacological treatment on cognitive function compared to diet only group or no diabetes group. Of those on oral hypoglycaemic treatment only, participants who used metformin alone had better cognitive function at baseline for the domains of verbal learning, working memory, and executive function compared to participants on other forms of diabetic treatment. Conclusion. This study did not observe significant effect from type of pharmacological treatment for diabetes on cognitive function except that participants who only used metformin showed significant protective effect from metformin on domain of verbal learning, working memory, and executive function.

  12. Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: An Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic ensemble square root filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amezcua, Javier

    This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn't represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion

  13. 'Lazy' quantum ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman

    2006-01-01

    We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error

  14. The semantic similarity ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Ballatore

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

  15. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter

    2014-04-01

    As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  16. A path analysis study of retention of healthcare professionals in urban India using health information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Indrajit; Ramachandran, Anandhi

    2015-07-31

    Healthcare information technology (HIT) applications are being ubiquitously adopted globally and have been indicated to have effects on certain dimensions of recruitment and retention of healthcare professionals. Retention of healthcare professionals is affected by their job satisfaction (JS), commitment to the organization and intention to stay (ITS) that are interlinked with each other and influenced by many factors related to job, personal, organization, etc. The objectives of the current study were to determine if HIT was one among the factors and, if so, propose a probable retention model that incorporates implementation and use of HIT as a strategy. This was a cross-sectional survey study covering 20 hospitals from urban areas of India. The sample (n = 586) consisted of doctors, nurses, paramedics and hospital administrators. Data was collected through a structured questionnaire. Factors affecting job satisfaction were determined. Technology acceptance by the healthcare professionals was also determined. Interactions between the factors were predicted using a path analysis model. The overall satisfaction rate of the respondents was 51 %. Based on factor analysis method, 10 factors were identified for JS and 9 factors for ITS. Availability and use of information technology was one factor that affected JS. The need for implementing technology influenced ITS through work environment and career growth. Also, the study indicated that nearly 70 % of the respondents had awareness of HIT, but only 40 % used them. The importance of providing training for HIT applications was stressed by many respondents. The results are in agreement with literature studies exploring job satisfaction and retention among healthcare professionals. Our study documented a relatively medium level of job satisfaction among the healthcare professionals in the urban area. Information technology was found to be one among the factors that can plausibly influence their job satisfaction and

  17. Computational study of the vortex path variation with the VG height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Gámiz, U.; Zamorano, G.; Zulueta, E.

    2014-06-01

    An extensive range of conventional, vane-type, passive vortex generators (VGs) are in use for successful applications of flow separation control. In most cases, the VG height is designed with the same thickness as the local boundary layer at the VG position. However, in some applications, these conventional VGs may produce excess residual drag. The so-called low-profile VGs can reduce the parasitic drag associated to this kind of passive control devices. As suggested by many authors, low-profile VGs can provide enough momentum transfer over a region several times their own height for effective flow-separation control with much lower drag. The main objective of this work is to study the variation of the path and the development of the primary vortex generated by a rectangular VG mounted on a flat plate with five different device heights h = δ, h1 = 0.8δ, h2 = 0.6δ, h3 = 0.4δ and h4 = 0.25m, where 5 is the local boundary layer thickness. For this purpose, computational simulations have been carried out at Reynolds number Re = 1350 based on the height of the conventional VG h = 0.25m with the angle of attack of the vane to the oncoming flow β = 18.5°. The results show that the VG scaling significantly affects the vortex trajectory and the peak vorticity generated by the primary vortex.

  18. Computational study of the vortex path variation with the VG height

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández-Gámiz, U; Zamorano, G; Zulueta, E

    2014-01-01

    An extensive range of conventional, vane-type, passive vortex generators (VGs) are in use for successful applications of flow separation control. In most cases, the VG height is designed with the same thickness as the local boundary layer at the VG position. However, in some applications, these conventional VGs may produce excess residual drag. The so-called low-profile VGs can reduce the parasitic drag associated to this kind of passive control devices. As suggested by many authors, low-profile VGs can provide enough momentum transfer over a region several times their own height for effective flow-separation control with much lower drag. The main objective of this work is to study the variation of the path and the development of the primary vortex generated by a rectangular VG mounted on a flat plate with five different device heights h = δ, h 1 = 0.8δ, h 2 = 0.6δ, h 3 = 0.4δ and h 4 = 0.25m, where 5 is the local boundary layer thickness. For this purpose, computational simulations have been carried out at Reynolds number Re = 1350 based on the height of the conventional VG h = 0.25m with the angle of attack of the vane to the oncoming flow β = 18.5°. The results show that the VG scaling significantly affects the vortex trajectory and the peak vorticity generated by the primary vortex

  19. Study on the Bearing Mode and Force Transfer Path of Composite Bucket Foundations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua He

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper elaborates on a new composite bucket foundation (CBF structural system for offshore wind turbines. The proposed CBF consists of a special force transition section, a beam system structure upper steel bucket cover and a large-scale steel bucket with honeycomb structure rooms. It can be prefabricated onshore, self-floated on the sea and then towed to the appointed sea area before sinking to the sea soil under negative pressure. This is called the “one-step” installation technology. Arc- and line-type bucket foundations are calculated by both theory and the finite element method to discuss their force transfer paths and bearing modes. Owning to the special structural form, the transition section can effectively convert the huge load and bending moment into controllable tension and compressive stress, as well as adjust the structure balance. The bearing model and percentage of each part of the composite foundation under monotonous and ultimate load conditions are also calculated. Results indicate that the bearing mode of CBF is a typical top cover mode. In addition, the curvature impact of arc-type is studied and the results reveal that the structure type of the transition section is more important than the diameter ratio between the bottom transition section and the bucket.

  20. Polymer escape from a metastable Kramers potential: path integral hyperdynamics study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jaeoh; Ikonen, Timo; Khandkar, Mahendra D; Ala-Nissila, Tapio; Sung, Wokyung

    2010-11-14

    We study the dynamics of flexible, semiflexible, and self-avoiding polymer chains moving under a Kramers metastable potential. Due to thermal noise, the polymers, initially placed in the metastable well, can cross the potential barrier, but these events are extremely rare if the barrier is much larger than thermal energy. To speed up the slow rate processes in computer simulations, we extend the recently proposed path integral hyperdynamics method to the cases of polymers. We consider the cases where the polymers' radii of gyration are comparable to the distance between the well bottom and the barrier top. We find that, for a flexible polymers, the crossing rate (R) monotonically decreases with chain contour length (L), but with the magnitude much larger than the Kramers rate in the globular limit. For a semiflexible polymer, the crossing rate decreases with L but becomes nearly constant for large L. For a fixed L, the crossing rate becomes maximum at an intermediate bending stiffness. For the self-avoiding chain, the rate is a nonmonotonic function of L, first decreasing with L, and then, above a certain length, increasing with L. These findings can be instrumental for efficient separation of biopolymers.

  1. Simultaneous phase-shifting interferometry study based on the common-path Fizeau interferometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feng-wei; Wu, Yong-qian

    2014-09-01

    A simultaneous phase-shifting interferometry(SPSI) based on the common-path Fizeau interferometer has been discussed.In this system,two orthogonal polarized beams, using as the reference beam and test beam ,are detached by a particular Wollaston prism at a very small angle,then four equal sub-beams are achieved by a combination of three non-polarizing beam splitters(NPBS),and the phase shifts are introduced by four polarizers whose polarization azimuths are 0°, 45°, 90°, 135° with the horizontal direction respectively,the four phase shift interferograms are collected simultaneously by controlling the CCDs working at the same time .The SPSI principle is studied at first,then is the error analysis, finally we emulate the process of surface recovery by four steps phase shifts algorithm,the results indicate that, to ensure the feasibility of the SPSI system, we have to control the polarization azimuth error of the polarizer in +/- 0.5°.

  2. A synchrotron X-ray diffraction study of non-proportional strain-path effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, D.M.; Erinosho, T.; Dunne, F.P.E.; Todd, R.I.; Connolley, T.; Mostafavi, M.; Kupfer, H.; Wilkinson, A.J.

    2017-01-01

    Common alloys used in sheet form can display a significant ductility benefit when they are subjected to certain multiaxial strain paths. This effect has been studied here for a polycrystalline ferritic steel using a combination of Nakajima bulge testing, X-ray diffraction during biaxial testing of cruciform samples and crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) modelling. Greatest gains in strain to failure were found when subjecting sheets to uniaxial loading followed by balanced biaxial deformation, resulting in a total deformation close to plane-strain. A combined strain of approximately double that of proportional loading was achieved. The evolution of macrostrain, microstrain and texture during non-proportional loading were evaluated by in-situ high energy synchrotron diffraction. The results have demonstrated that the inhomogeneous strain accumulation from non-proportional deformation is strongly dependent on texture and the applied strain-ratio of the first deformation pass. Experimental diffraction evidence is supported by results produced by a novel method of CPFE-derived diffraction simulation. Using constitutive laws selected on the basis of good agreement with measured lattice strain development, the CPFE model demonstrated the capability to replicate ductility gains measured experimentally.

  3. Quark ensembles with infinite correlation length

    OpenAIRE

    Molodtsov, S. V.; Zinovjev, G. M.

    2014-01-01

    By studying quark ensembles with infinite correlation length we formulate the quantum field theory model that, as we show, is exactly integrable and develops an instability of its standard vacuum ensemble (the Dirac sea). We argue such an instability is rooted in high ground state degeneracy (for 'realistic' space-time dimensions) featuring a fairly specific form of energy distribution, and with the cutoff parameter going to infinity this inherent energy distribution becomes infinitely narrow...

  4. Benchmarking Commercial Conformer Ensemble Generators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Nils-Ole; de Bruyn Kops, Christina; Flachsenberg, Florian; Sommer, Kai; Rarey, Matthias; Kirchmair, Johannes

    2017-11-27

    We assess and compare the performance of eight commercial conformer ensemble generators (ConfGen, ConfGenX, cxcalc, iCon, MOE LowModeMD, MOE Stochastic, MOE Conformation Import, and OMEGA) and one leading free algorithm, the distance geometry algorithm implemented in RDKit. The comparative study is based on a new version of the Platinum Diverse Dataset, a high-quality benchmarking dataset of 2859 protein-bound ligand conformations extracted from the PDB. Differences in the performance of commercial algorithms are much smaller than those observed for free algorithms in our previous study (J. Chem. Inf. 2017, 57, 529-539). For commercial algorithms, the median minimum root-mean-square deviations measured between protein-bound ligand conformations and ensembles of a maximum of 250 conformers are between 0.46 and 0.61 Å. Commercial conformer ensemble generators are characterized by their high robustness, with at least 99% of all input molecules successfully processed and few or even no substantial geometrical errors detectable in their output conformations. The RDKit distance geometry algorithm (with minimization enabled) appears to be a good free alternative since its performance is comparable to that of the midranked commercial algorithms. Based on a statistical analysis, we elaborate on which algorithms to use and how to parametrize them for best performance in different application scenarios.

  5. Path Dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mogens Ove

    Begrebet Path Dependence blev oprindelig udviklet inden for New Institutionel Economics af bl.a. David, Arthur og North. Begrebet har spredt sig vidt i samfundsvidenskaberne og undergået en udvikling. Dette paper propagerer for at der er sket så en så omfattende udvikling af begrebet, at man nu kan...... tale om 1. og 2. generation af Path Dependence begrebet. Den nyeste udvikling af begrebet har relevans for metodologi-diskusionerne i relation til Keynes...

  6. Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Yunqian

    2012-01-01

    It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics.   Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...

  7. The Study of Intelligent Vehicle Navigation Path Based on Behavior Coordination of Particle Swarm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Gaining; Fu, Weiping; Wang, Wen

    2016-01-01

    In the behavior dynamics model, behavior competition leads to the shock problem of the intelligent vehicle navigation path, because of the simultaneous occurrence of the time-variant target behavior and obstacle avoidance behavior. Considering the safety and real-time of intelligent vehicle, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed to solve these problems for the optimization of weight coefficients of the heading angle and the path velocity. Firstly, according to the behavior dynamics model, the fitness function is defined concerning the intelligent vehicle driving characteristics, the distance between intelligent vehicle and obstacle, and distance of intelligent vehicle and target. Secondly, behavior coordination parameters that minimize the fitness function are obtained by particle swarm optimization algorithms. Finally, the simulation results show that the optimization method and its fitness function can improve the perturbations of the vehicle planning path and real-time and reliability.

  8. 77 FR 48994 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-15

    ... Institutes of Health (NIH) National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) and in partnership with the Food and Drug... adults, the PATH study is designed to establish a population-based framework for monitoring and... the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (FSPTCA) to regulate tobacco-product advertising...

  9. Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

    2017-04-01

    Hydro-electricity is a major source of energy for many countries throughout the world, including Canada. Long lead-time streamflow forecasts are all the more valuable as they help decision making and dam management. Different techniques exist for long-term hydrological forecasting. Perhaps the most well-known is 'Extended Streamflow Prediction' (ESP), which considers past meteorological scenarios as possible, often equiprobable, future scenarios. In the ESP framework, those past-observed meteorological scenarios (climatology) are used in turn as the inputs of a chosen hydrological model to produce ensemble forecasts (one member corresponding to each year in the available database). Many hydropower companies, including Hydro-Québec (province of Quebec, Canada) use variants of the above described ESP system operationally for long-term operation planning. The ESP system accounts for the hydrological initial conditions and for the natural variability of the meteorological variables. However, it cannot consider the current initial state of the atmosphere. Climate models can help remedy this drawback. In the context of a changing climate, dynamical forecasts issued from climate models seem to be an interesting avenue to improve upon the ESP method and could help hydropower companies to adapt their management practices to an evolving climate. Long-range forecasts from climate models can also be helpful for water management at locations where records of past meteorological conditions are short or nonexistent. In this study, we compare 7-month hydrological forecasts obtained from climate model outputs to an ESP system. The ESP system mimics the one used operationally at Hydro-Québec. The dynamical climate forecasts are produced by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System4. Forecasts quality is assessed using numerical scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Ignorance score and also graphical tools such as the

  10. The mineralogic evolution of the Martian surface through time: Implications from chemical reaction path modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, G. S.; Ridley, W. I.; Debraal, J. D.; Reed, M. H.

    1993-01-01

    Chemical reaction path calculations were used to model the minerals that might have formed at or near the Martian surface as a result of volcano or meteorite impact driven hydrothermal systems; weathering at the Martian surface during an early warm, wet climate; and near-zero or sub-zero C brine-regolith reactions in the current cold climate. Although the chemical reaction path calculations carried out do not define the exact mineralogical evolution of the Martian surface over time, they do place valuable geochemical constraints on the types of minerals that formed from an aqueous phase under various surficial and geochemically complex conditions.

  11. Genetic Variability, Correlation Studies and Path Coefficient Analysis in Gladiolus Alatus Cultivars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramzan, A.; Nawab, N. N.; Tariq, M. S.; Ikram, S.; Ahad, A.

    2016-01-01

    A study was undertaken to find out the estimates of genetic variability, genetic parameters and character association among different flower traits between three gladiolus cultivars viz: Sancerre, Fado and Advanced Red. The experiment was repeated three times by using RCBD (Randomized complete block design) at Department of Horticulture, PMAS-UAAR, Rawalpindi. The highest genotypic coefficient variation (GCV) and phenotypic coefficient variation (PCV) magnitude was observed for spike length (16.00) and number of florets per spike (14.84) followed by number of leaves (10.00). Among the traits studied the highest heritability estimates was recorded in spike length (99.5 percent) followed by number of florets/spike (99.6 percent) and lowest in plant height (98.2 percent). The genetic advance as percent of mean was ranged from 2.8 percent to 24.75 percent. Genetic advance was highest for floret breadth (24.75 percent) and lowest for plant height (2.8 percent). High heritability combined with high genetic advance was noticed for number of florets per spike, spike length and floret breadth indicating additive gene action which suggested that improvement of these traits would be effective for further selection of superior genotypes. Plant height and number of florets per spike showed highly positive and significant association with spike length, number of leaves, leaf area, floret length and floret breadth while, spike length registered positive and significant correlation with number of leaves and floret breadth. The path coefficient analysis based on spike length, as responsible variable exposed that all of the traits exerted direct positive effect except leaf area and floret length. Spike length imparted maximum positive direct effect on the number of florets per spike. Hence, spike length and number of florets per spike may be considered for further improvement. However, Floret length and floret breadth may also be considered as a criterion for selection. (author)

  12. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  13. Factors affecting mobile diabetes monitoring adoption among physicians: questionnaire study and path model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okazaki, Shintaro; Castañeda, José Alberto; Sanz, Silvia; Henseler, Jörg

    2012-12-21

    Patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes often find it difficult to control their blood glucose level on a daily basis because of distance or physical incapacity. With the increase in Internet-enabled smartphone use, this problem can be resolved by adopting a mobile diabetes monitoring system. Most existing studies have focused on patients' usability perceptions, whereas little attention has been paid to physicians' intentions to adopt this technology. The aim of the study was to evaluate the perceptions and user acceptance of mobile diabetes monitoring among Japanese physicians. A questionnaire survey of physicians was conducted in Japan. The structured questionnaire was prepared in a context of a mobile diabetes monitoring system that controls blood glucose, weight, physical activity, diet, insulin and medication, and blood pressure. Following a thorough description of mobile diabetes monitoring with a graphical image, questions were asked relating to system quality, information quality, service quality, health improvement, ubiquitous control, privacy and security concerns, perceived value, subjective norms, and intention to use mobile diabetes monitoring. The data were analyzed by partial least squares (PLS) path modeling. In total, 471 physicians participated from 47 prefectures across Japan, of whom 134 were specialized in internal and gastrointestinal medicine. Nine hypotheses were tested with both the total sample and the specialist subsample; results were similar for both samples in terms of statistical significance and the strength of path coefficients. We found that system quality, information quality, and service quality significantly affect overall quality. Overall quality determines the extent to which physicians perceive the value of mobile health monitoring. However, in contrast to our initial predictions, overall quality does not have a significant direct effect on the intention to use mobile diabetes monitoring. With regard to net benefits, both

  14. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Steven J; Price, Harry E; Smedley, Eric M; Meals, Cory D

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor's gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble's articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble's performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  15. Using statistical models to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. E. P. Lemaire

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, the computing cost of such methods requires optimizing ensemble exploration techniques. By using a training data set from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for eight regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to predict air pollutant concentrations. The evolution of the key climate variables driving either particulate or gaseous pollution allows selecting the members of the EuroCordex ensemble of regional climate projections that should be used in priority for future air quality projections (CanESM2/RCA4; CNRM-CM5-LR/RCA4 and CSIRO-Mk3-6-0/RCA4 and MPI-ESM-LR/CCLM following the EuroCordex terminology. After having tested the validity of the statistical model in predictive mode, we can provide ranges of uncertainty attributed to the spread of the regional climate projection ensemble by the end of the century (2071–2100 for the RCP8.5. In the three regions where the statistical model of the impact of climate change on PM2.5 offers satisfactory performances, we find a climate benefit (a decrease of PM2.5 concentrations under future climate of −1.08 (±0.21, −1.03 (±0.32, −0.83 (±0.14 µg m−3, for respectively Eastern Europe, Mid-Europe and Northern Italy. In the British-Irish Isles, Scandinavia, France, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean, the statistical model is not considered skillful enough to draw any conclusion for PM2.5. In Eastern Europe, France, the Iberian Peninsula, Mid-Europe and Northern Italy, the statistical model of the

  16. Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyong Yang

    Full Text Available Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA has long been used to quantify global and regional environmental impacts and to clarify emission transfers. Structural path analysis (SPA, a technique based on EEIOA, is especially useful for measuring significant flows in this environmental-economic system. This paper constructs an imports-adjusted single-region input-output (SRIO model considering only domestic final use elements, and it uses the SPA technique to highlight crucial routes along the production chain in both final use and sectoral perspectives. The results indicate that future mitigation policies on household consumption should change direct energy use structures in rural areas, cut unreasonable demand for power and chemical products, and focus on urban areas due to their consistently higher magnitudes than rural areas in the structural routes. Impacts originating from government spending should be tackled by managing onsite energy use in 3 major service sectors and promoting cleaner fuels and energy-saving techniques in the transport sector. Policies on investment should concentrate on sectoral interrelationships along the production chain by setting up standards to regulate upstream industries, especially for the services, construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, which have high demand pulling effects. Apart from the similar methods above, mitigating policies in exports should also consider improving embodied technology and quality in manufactured products to achieve sustainable development. Additionally, detailed sectoral results in the coal extraction industry highlight the onsite energy use management in large domestic companies, emphasize energy structure rearrangement, and indicate resources and energy safety issues. Conclusions based on the construction and public administration sectors reveal that future mitigation in secondary and tertiary industries should be combined with upstream emission intensive

  17. Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhiyong; Dong, Wenjie; Xiu, Jinfeng; Dai, Rufeng; Chou, Jieming

    2015-01-01

    Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) has long been used to quantify global and regional environmental impacts and to clarify emission transfers. Structural path analysis (SPA), a technique based on EEIOA, is especially useful for measuring significant flows in this environmental-economic system. This paper constructs an imports-adjusted single-region input-output (SRIO) model considering only domestic final use elements, and it uses the SPA technique to highlight crucial routes along the production chain in both final use and sectoral perspectives. The results indicate that future mitigation policies on household consumption should change direct energy use structures in rural areas, cut unreasonable demand for power and chemical products, and focus on urban areas due to their consistently higher magnitudes than rural areas in the structural routes. Impacts originating from government spending should be tackled by managing onsite energy use in 3 major service sectors and promoting cleaner fuels and energy-saving techniques in the transport sector. Policies on investment should concentrate on sectoral interrelationships along the production chain by setting up standards to regulate upstream industries, especially for the services, construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, which have high demand pulling effects. Apart from the similar methods above, mitigating policies in exports should also consider improving embodied technology and quality in manufactured products to achieve sustainable development. Additionally, detailed sectoral results in the coal extraction industry highlight the onsite energy use management in large domestic companies, emphasize energy structure rearrangement, and indicate resources and energy safety issues. Conclusions based on the construction and public administration sectors reveal that future mitigation in secondary and tertiary industries should be combined with upstream emission intensive industries in a

  18. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D.; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  19. Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysis of Ocean Forecast Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea.

  20. Ovis: A framework for visual analysis of ocean forecast ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  1. Redox zonation for different groundwater flow paths during bank filtration: a case study at Liao River, Shenyang, northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiaosi; Lu, Shuai; Yuan, Wenzhen; Woo, Nam Chil; Dai, Zhenxue; Dong, Weihong; Du, Shanghai; Zhang, Xinyue

    2018-03-01

    The spatial and temporal distribution of redox zones in an aquifer is important when designing groundwater supply systems. Redox zonation can have direct or indirect control of the biological and chemical reactions and mobility of pollutants. In this study, redox conditions are characterized by interpreting the hydrogeological conditions and water chemistry in groundwater during bank infiltration at a site in Shenyang, northeast China. The relevant redox processes and zonal differences in a shallow flow path and deeper flow path at the field scale were revealed by monitoring the redox parameters and chemistry of groundwater near the Liao River. The results show obvious horizontal and vertical components of redox zones during bank filtration. Variations in the horizontal extent of the redox zone were controlled by the different permeabilities of the riverbed sediments and aquifer with depth. Horizontally, the redox zone was situated within 17 m of the riverbank for the shallow flow path and within 200 m for the deep flow path. The vertical extent of the redox zone was affected by precipitation and seasonal river floods and extended to 10 m below the surface. During bank filtration, iron and manganese oxides or hydroxides were reductively dissolved, and arsenic that was adsorbed onto the medium surface or coprecipitated is released into the groundwater. This leads to increased arsenic content in groundwater, which poses a serious threat to water supply security.

  2. Supersymmetry applied to the spectrum edge of random matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreev, A.V.; Simons, B.D.; Taniguchi, N.

    1994-01-01

    A new matrix ensemble has recently been proposed to describe the transport properties in mesoscopic quantum wires. Both analytical and numerical studies have shown that the ensemble of Laguerre or of chiral random matrices provides a good description of scattering properties in this class of systems. Until now only conventional methods of random matrix theory have been used to study statistical properties within this ensemble. We demonstrate that the supersymmetry method, already employed in the study Dyson ensembles, can be extended to treat this class of random matrix ensembles. In developing this approach we investigate both new, as well as verify known statistical measures. Although we focus on ensembles in which T-invariance is violated our approach lays the foundation for future studies of T-invariant systems. ((orig.))

  3. High-density amorphous ice: A path-integral simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Carlos P.; Ramírez, Rafael

    2012-09-01

    Structural and thermodynamic properties of high-density amorphous (HDA) ice have been studied by path-integral molecular dynamics simulations in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble. Interatomic interactions were modeled by using the effective q-TIP4P/F potential for flexible water. Quantum nuclear motion is found to affect several observable properties of the amorphous solid. At low temperature (T = 50 K) the molar volume of HDA ice is found to increase by 6%, and the intramolecular O-H distance rises by 1.4% due to quantum motion. Peaks in the radial distribution function of HDA ice are broadened with respect to their classical expectancy. The bulk modulus, B, is found to rise linearly with the pressure, with a slope ∂B/∂P = 7.1. Our results are compared with those derived earlier from classical and path-integral simulations of HDA ice. We discuss similarities and discrepancies with those earlier simulations.

  4. Path Creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karnøe, Peter; Garud, Raghu

    2012-01-01

    This paper employs path creation as a lens to follow the emergence of the Danish wind turbine cluster. Supplier competencies, regulations, user preferences and a market for wind power did not pre-exist; all had to emerge in a tranformative manner involving multiple actors and artefacts. Competenc......This paper employs path creation as a lens to follow the emergence of the Danish wind turbine cluster. Supplier competencies, regulations, user preferences and a market for wind power did not pre-exist; all had to emerge in a tranformative manner involving multiple actors and artefacts....... Competencies emerged through processes and mechanisms such as co-creation that implicated multiple learning processes. The process was not an orderly linear one as emergent contingencies influenced the learning processes. An implication is that public policy to catalyse clusters cannot be based...

  5. Agility Path Through Work Values in Knowledge-Based Organizations: A Study of Virtual Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashar Salamzadeh

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available All people enter organizations with a formed personality and some initial experiences and values depending on the culture, which will, in turn, influence their efficiency and performance. Therefore, great attention must be paid to work values of the employees and the issues which affect them, especially in organizations that are complex in their structure and culture. Today’s dynamic environment requires organizations to be agile in their processes, with the issue being even more critical in knowledge-based organizations such as virtual universities. In this research, we identify the path through which organizations can achieve agility by means of work values. Although there are many dimensions in work values and organizational agility, using the methodology applied in this research, we omit some of these dimensions and find the best methods that will enable managers to wisely invest in the most important issues and get the best results in the path to achieve agility through work values.

  6. Path-integral Monte Carlo study of phonons in the bcc phase of Helium-3

    OpenAIRE

    Sorkin, V.; Polturak, E.; Adler, Joan

    2006-01-01

    Using Path Integral Monte Carlo and the Maximum Entropy method, we calculate the dynamic structure factor of solid He-3 in the bcc phase at a finite temperature of T = 1.6 K and a molar volume of 21.5 cm^3. From the single phonon dynamic structure factor, we obtain both the longitudinal and transverse phonon branches along the main crystalline directions, [001], [011] and [111]. Our results are compared with other theoretical predictions and available experimental data.

  7. Tailored Random Graph Ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C

    2013-01-01

    Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.

  8. Path-based Queries on Trajectory Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Benjamin Bjerre; Pelekis, Nikos; Theodoridis, Yannis

    2014-01-01

    In traffic research, management, and planning a number of path-based analyses are heavily used, e.g., for computing turn-times, evaluating green waves, or studying traffic flow. These analyses require retrieving the trajectories that follow the full path being analyzed. Existing path queries cannot...... sufficiently support such path-based analyses because they retrieve all trajectories that touch any edge in the path. In this paper, we define and formalize the strict path query. This is a novel query type tailored to support path-based analysis, where trajectories must follow all edges in the path...... a specific path by only retrieving data from the first and last edge in the path. To correctly answer strict path queries existing network-constrained trajectory indexes must retrieve data from all edges in the path. An extensive performance study of NETTRA using a very large real-world trajectory data set...

  9. Remote and Local Influences in Forecasting Pacific SST: a Linear Inverse Model and a Multimodel Ensemble Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggiani Dias, D.; Subramanian, A. C.; Zanna, L.; Miller, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific sector is well known to vary on time scales from seasonal to decadal, and the ability to predict these SST fluctuations has many societal and economical benefits. Therefore, we use a suite of statistical linear inverse models (LIMs) to understand the remote and local SST variability that influences SST predictions over the North Pacific region and further improve our understanding on how the long-observed SST record can help better guide multi-model ensemble forecasts. Observed monthly SST anomalies in the Pacific sector (between 15oS and 60oN) are used to construct different regional LIMs for seasonal to decadal prediction. The forecast skills of the LIMs are compared to that from two operational forecast systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) revealing that the LIM has better skill in the Northeastern Pacific than NMME models. The LIM is also found to have comparable forecast skill for SST in the Tropical Pacific with NMME models. This skill, however, is highly dependent on the initialization month, with forecasts initialized during the summer having better skill than those initialized during the winter. The forecast skill with LIM is also influenced by the verification period utilized to make the predictions, likely due to the changing character of El Niño in the 20th century. The North Pacific seems to be a source of predictability for the Tropics on seasonal to interannual time scales, while the Tropics act to worsen the skill for the forecast in the North Pacific. The data were also bandpassed into seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales to identify the relationships between time scales using the structure of the propagator matrix. For the decadal component, this coupling occurs the other way around: Tropics seem to be a source of predictability for the Extratropics, but the Extratropics don't improve the predictability for the Tropics. These results indicate the importance of temporal

  10. Bioactive focus in conformational ensembles: a pluralistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habgood, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    Computational generation of conformational ensembles is key to contemporary drug design. Selecting the members of the ensemble that will approximate the conformation most likely to bind to a desired target (the bioactive conformation) is difficult, given that the potential energy usually used to generate and rank the ensemble is a notoriously poor discriminator between bioactive and non-bioactive conformations. In this study an approach to generating a focused ensemble is proposed in which each conformation is assigned multiple rankings based not just on potential energy but also on solvation energy, hydrophobic or hydrophilic interaction energy, radius of gyration, and on a statistical potential derived from Cambridge Structural Database data. The best ranked structures derived from each system are then assembled into a new ensemble that is shown to be better focused on bioactive conformations. This pluralistic approach is tested on ensembles generated by the Molecular Operating Environment's Low Mode Molecular Dynamics module, and by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre's conformation generator software.

  11. Studies on jet path length dependence in Pb+Pb Collisions with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Helena; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The phenomenon of events containing highly asymmetric dijet pairs is one of the most striking results in heavy ion physics. It has provided the first direct observation of in-medium jet energy loss at the LHC. New results showing the variation of the dijet asymmetry with the angle between the leading jet and the second order event-plane are presented. This observable effectively probes the path-length dependence of the *dijet* asymmetry at fixed centrality. The variation of the dijet asymmetry with the soft particle $v_2$, at fixed centrality is also measured. These measurements can provide a better understanding of the correlation of the parton energy-loss with the underlying geometry. Correlated production of nearby jets is also shown. Two neighbouring jets originating from the same hard scattering should have more similar path lengths in the medium compared to the two jets in the dijet event topology, therefore measuring neighbouring jets may probe differences in quenching that do not result from different...

  12. Altered orientation and flight paths of pigeons reared on gravity anomalies: a GPS tracking study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Blaser

    Full Text Available The mechanisms of pigeon homing are still not understood, in particular how they determine their position at unfamiliar locations. The "gravity vector" theory holds that pigeons memorize the gravity vector at their home loft and deduct home direction and distance from the angular difference between memorized and actual gravity vector. However, the gravity vector is tilted by different densities in the earth crust leading to gravity anomalies. We predicted that pigeons reared on different gravity anomalies would show different initial orientation and also show changes in their flight path when crossing a gravity anomaly. We reared one group of pigeons in a strong gravity anomaly with a north-to-south gravity gradient, and the other group of pigeons in a normal area but on a spot with a strong local anomaly with a west-to-east gravity gradient. After training over shorter distances, pigeons were released from a gravitationally and geomagnetically normal site 50 km north in the same direction for both home lofts. As expected by the theory, the two groups of pigeons showed divergent initial orientation. In addition, some of the GPS-tracked pigeons also showed changes in their flight paths when crossing gravity anomalies. We conclude that even small local gravity anomalies at the birth place of pigeons may have the potential to bias the map sense of pigeons, while reactivity to gravity gradients during flight was variable and appeared to depend on individual navigational strategies and frequency of position updates.

  13. Comparative Study on the Optimization Path of Industrial Value Chain in China’s Resource-Based Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menglin Xing

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s resource-based cities have currently entered a period of comprehensive transformation. The differences in the economic and technical environment and significant policy orientation make it unique to some extent. This study applied value chain theory to analyze the industrial value chain of China’s resource-based cities, and three important types of optimization paths that have been applied differently by different cities were proposed. Grey relational analysis was used to compare the comprehensive value creation capacity of the three paths and its relationship with the comparative advantage of local industry. We found that a circular economy system has significant capacity to optimize economic and social value and favorable prospects for environmental value. However, this may have obvious instability in early periods of transition. This disadvantage can be remedied by cultivating related industries that have significantly comprehensive advantages in the early period. In the long term, the other two paths need to be combined with cultivating emerging industries. Finally, we found that the value creation capacity of China’s resource-based cities has roots in optimization of the industrial value chain rather than enhancement of the industrial comparative advantage. The reason for this is that value creation capacity has not yet been transformed into a source of industrial comparative advantage.

  14. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, A. W.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Schaake, J. C.; Hartman, R. K.

    2012-12-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). With support from the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC), the HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support in emergency management and water resources sectors. The strategy to meet this goal includes meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. HEPEX has organized about a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Today, the HEPEX mission is to demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) for emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health, safety, and the environment. HEPEX is now organised around six major themes that represent core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  15. Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

    2016-08-12

    Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2016-06-14

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  17. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon; Law, Kody J. H.; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  18. Whatever It Takes A Case Study Of Our Childs Alternative Path To Literacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly HUGGINS

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available As public school educators, my husband and I struggled with making alternative academic choices for our child with learning differences. Choosing the alternative path was not easy or clear cut for us. This is a reflective record of the journey toward getting my son Whatever it Takes to help him learn. The article chronicles intuition about the early warning signs of learning differences. The article discusses the merits of the private school experience, the homeschooling experience and ultimately a modified and personalized learning plan that made learning natural, while preserving my sons confidence, self-esteem and integrity. Detailed in the article are the discussions concerning the many educational, instructional and sociological decisions that are necessary to individualize instruction to meet an individuals needs.

  19. A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Firas; Ramaswamy, Venkatsundar; Georgas, Nickitas; Blumberg, Alan F.; Pullen, Julie

    2016-07-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainties in hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts for an extreme hydrological event using a hydrological model forced with short-range ensemble weather prediction models. A state-of-the art, automated, short-term hydrologic prediction framework was implemented using GIS and a regional scale hydrological model (HEC-HMS). The hydrologic framework was applied to the Hudson River basin ( ˜ 36 000 km2) in the United States using gridded precipitation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and was validated against streamflow observations from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). Finally, 21 precipitation ensemble members of the latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS/R) were forced into HEC-HMS to generate a retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrological event, Hurricane Irene. The work shows that ensemble stream discharge forecasts provide improved predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks when compared with deterministic forecasts. The uncertainties in weather inputs may result in false warnings and missed river flooding events, reducing the potential to effectively mitigate flood damage. The findings demonstrate how errors in the ensemble median streamflow forecast and time of peak, as well as the ensemble spread (uncertainty) are reduced 48 h pre-event by utilizing the ensemble framework. The methodology and implications of this work benefit efforts of short-term streamflow forecasts at regional scales, notably regarding the peak timing of an extreme hydrologic event when combined with a flood threshold exceedance diagram. Although the modeling framework was implemented on the Hudson River basin, it is flexible and applicable in other parts of the world where atmospheric reanalysis products and streamflow data are available.

  20. Conductor and Ensemble Performance Expressivity and State Festival Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Harry E.; Chang, E. Christina

    2005-01-01

    This study is the second in a series examining the relationship between conducting and ensemble performance. The purpose was to further examine the associations among conductor, ensemble performance expressivity, and festival ratings. Participants were asked to rate the expressivity of video-only conducting and parallel audio-only excerpts from a…

  1. An iterative ensemble Kalman filter for reservoir engineering applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krymskaya, M.V.; Hanea, R.G.; Verlaan, M.

    2009-01-01

    The study has been focused on examining the usage and the applicability of ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to the history matching procedures. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is often applied nowadays to solving such a problem. Meanwhile, traditional EnKF requires assumption of the

  2. Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3...

  3. Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, O; Mukamel, D

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion. (paper)

  4. STRATEGIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS PLANNING IN THE BANKING SECTOR—A PATH ANALYTIC MODEL STUDY IN THE INDIAN CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Rawani

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a path analytic model showing the cause and effect relationships among various Information Systems (IS planning variables for the banking sector in India. In recent years, there has been an increased awareness among banks of the potential of Information Technology (IT and the use of information systems. Strategic information system planning (SISP becomes an important issue in the use of IS strategically. In India, banks have now started realizing the importance of SISP. In this study, 11 IS planning variables for the banking sector in India are examined and the influence of one over the other is investigated using path analysis. Data for the study are collected from 52 banks operating in India. The results of the study indicate that top management involvement in IS planning greatly influences the whole planning exercise. Moreover, top management involvement is higher when they foresee greater future impact of IS. The study also highlights the need and importance of user training in the banking sector. Change in the focus and orientation of user-training will make the users competent to conceive with innovative IS applications.

  5. How physics teachers approach innovation: An empirical study for reconstructing the appropriation path in the case of special relativity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna De Ambrosis

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper concerns an empirical study carried out with a group of high school physics teachers engaged in the Module on relativity of a Master course on the teaching of modern physics. The study is framed within the general research issue of how to promote innovation in school via teachers’ education and how to foster fruitful interactions between research and school practice via the construction of networks of researchers and teachers. In the paper, the problems related to innovation are addressed by focusing on the phase during which teachers analyze an innovative teaching proposal in the perspective of designing their own paths for the class work. The proposal analyzed in this study is Taylor and Wheeler’s approach for teaching special relativity. The paper aims to show that the roots of problems known in the research literature about teachers’ difficulties in coping with innovative proposals, and usually related to the implementation process, can be found and addressed already when teachers approach the proposal and try to appropriate it. The study is heuristic and has been carried out in order to trace the “appropriation path,” followed by the group of teachers, in terms of the main steps and factors triggering the progressive evolution of teachers’ attitudes and competences.

  6. Diversity in random subspacing ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsymbal, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Cunningham, P.; Kambayashi, Y.; Mohania, M.K.; Wöß, W.

    2004-01-01

    Ensembles of learnt models constitute one of the main current directions in machine learning and data mining. It was shown experimentally and theoretically that in order for an ensemble to be effective, it should consist of classifiers having diversity in their predictions. A number of ways are

  7. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...

  8. New concept of statistical ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenstein, M.I.

    2009-01-01

    An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution is introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

  9. The Effects of Direction of Exertion, Path, and Load Placement in Nursing Cart Pushing and Pulling Tasks: An Electromyographical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Huei Chu; Lin, Chiuhsiang Joe; Lee, Yung Hui; Chen, Su Huang

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the effects of direction of exertion (DOE) (pushing, pulling), path (walking in a straight line, turning left, walking uphill), and load placement (LP) (the 18 blocks were indicated by X, Y and Z axis; there were 3 levels on the X axis, 2 levels on the Y axis, and 3 levels on the Z axis) on muscle activity and ratings of perceived exertion in nursing cart pushing and pulling tasks. Ten participants who were female students and not experienced nurses were recruited to participate in the experiment. Each participant performed 108 experimental trials in the study, consisting of 2 directions of exertion (push and pull), 3 paths, and 18 load placements (indicated by X, Y and Z axes). A 23kg load was placed into one load placement. The dependent variables were electromyographic (EMG) data of four muscles collected bilaterally as follows: Left (L) and right (R) trapezius (TR), flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS), extensor digitorum (ED), and erector spinae (ES) and subjective ratings of perceived exertion (RPE). Split-split-plot ANOVA was conducted to analyze significant differences between DOE, path, and LP in the EMG and RPE data. Pulling cart tasks produced a significantly higher activation of the muscles (RTR:54.4%, LTR:50.3%, LFDS:57.0%, LED:63.4%, RES:40.7%, LES:36.7%) than pushing cart tasks (RTR:42.4%, LTR:35.1%, LFDS:32.3%, LED:55.1%, RES:33.3%, LES:32.1%). A significantly greater perceived exertion was found in pulling cart tasks than pushing cart tasks. Significantly higher activation of all muscles and perceived exertion were observed for walking uphill than walking in a straight line and turning left. Significantly lower muscle activity of all muscles and subject ratings were observed for the central position on the X axis, the bottom position on the Y axis, and the posterior position on the Z axis. These findings suggest that nursing staff should adopt forward pushing when moving a nursing cart, instead of backward

  10. Ensembl 2002: accommodating comparative genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clamp, M; Andrews, D; Barker, D; Bevan, P; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hubbard, T; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Lehvaslaiho, H; Iyer, V; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Birney, E

    2003-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of human, mouse and other genome sequences, available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. Ensembl also integrates manually annotated gene structures from external sources where available. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. These range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation and installations exist around the world in both companies and at academic sites. With both human and mouse genome sequences available and more vertebrate sequences to follow, many of the recent developments in Ensembl have focusing on developing automatic comparative genome analysis and visualisation.

  11. Cost Surface-Derived Least-Cost Paths: A Case Study from Iron Age Orkney

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Rahn

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, GIS landscape models have begun to move towards more sophisticated techniques for representing the land surface in order to analyse site territories, pathways and travel costs. Many of the major commercial GIS packages now offer the ability to generate anisotropic cost surfaces. In addition, recent papers have proposed methodologies for generating cost surfaces to model social preferences affecting travel (Lee and Stucky 1998; Llobera 2000. In terms of practical applications, however, GIS models of catchment areas and paths between sites continue to be dominated by those constructed on the basis of slope alone. In parallel with this, regional analyses of site location, with few exceptions, have been undertaken either within large land masses, largely ignoring the effects of rivers, lakes and the sea on travel costs and affordances, or within single islands, neglecting travel to other neighbouring islands or the mainland. The reasons for this appear to be twofold: first, there is little information available on travel costs and travel rates using pre-industrial transportation technology, beyond very general statements; second, critical analysis of what constitutes an 'acceptable' travel distance is lacking, especially in situations where both water and land transport are possibilities. This article presents some preliminary results from a research project examining the location and distribution of Middle Iron Age sites (brochs in the landscape of Orkney, Northern Scotland. It employs a terrain model, taking into account differing friction values for land and water surfaces, as well as the nature of the shoreline (cliffs, beaches and how this affects access from land to sea and vice versa. It also attempts to model pathways between sites following three friction models: lowest-energy, lowest-visibility (hidden and highest-visibility (exposed.

  12. Crossover ensembles of random matrices and skew-orthogonal polynomials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Santosh; Pandey, Akhilesh

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We study crossover ensembles of Jacobi family of random matrices. → We consider correlations for orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers. → We use the method of skew-orthogonal polynomials and quaternion determinants. → We prove universality of spectral correlations in crossover ensembles. → We discuss applications to quantum conductance and communication theory problems. - Abstract: In a recent paper (S. Kumar, A. Pandey, Phys. Rev. E, 79, 2009, p. 026211) we considered Jacobi family (including Laguerre and Gaussian cases) of random matrix ensembles and reported exact solutions of crossover problems involving time-reversal symmetry breaking. In the present paper we give details of the work. We start with Dyson's Brownian motion description of random matrix ensembles and obtain universal hierarchic relations among the unfolded correlation functions. For arbitrary dimensions we derive the joint probability density (jpd) of eigenvalues for all transitions leading to unitary ensembles as equilibrium ensembles. We focus on the orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers and give generic expressions for jpd of eigenvalues, two-point kernels and n-level correlation functions. This involves generalization of the theory of skew-orthogonal polynomials to crossover ensembles. We also consider crossovers in the circular ensembles to show the generality of our method. In the large dimensionality limit, correlations in spectra with arbitrary initial density are shown to be universal when expressed in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter. Applications of our crossover results to communication theory and quantum conductance problems are also briefly discussed.

  13. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  14. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Mayo, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Heemink, A. W.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  15. Promoting social-emotional learning in Chinese schools: A feasibility study of PATHS implementation in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Ming Kam

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a pilot study of a reduced version of the PATHS Curriculum, a Usdeveloped evidence-based SEL program, among schools in Hong Kong SAR (China. Three hundred and sixteen 12th grade students in three elementary schools participated in the study. A limited number of first grade PATHS lessons were adapted and translated into Chinese. Twelve teachers learned and adopted these lessons in their teaching. Students in these classrooms learned about different emotions and practiced self-control. The intervention lasted four months. After the intervention, students showed improvement in emotion understanding, emotion regulation and prosocial behavior. No change was observed in the level of children's problem behaviors. Over 65% of the teachers reported a high degree of satisfaction and willingness to adopt the intervention. The effects of the intervention varied among schools, with variations in the level of intervention and principal support, but not in the quality of implementation. Discussion is focused on the factors that could shape the adoption and implementation of SEL programs, especially the role of the difference in school systems between Hong Kong and the United States.

  16. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2010-09-19

    The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  17. Topological quantization of ensemble averages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil

    2009-01-01

    We define the current of a quantum observable and, under well-defined conditions, we connect its ensemble average to the index of a Fredholm operator. The present work builds on a formalism developed by Kellendonk and Schulz-Baldes (2004 J. Funct. Anal. 209 388) to study the quantization of edge currents for continuous magnetic Schroedinger operators. The generalization given here may be a useful tool to scientists looking for novel manifestations of the topological quantization. As a new application, we show that the differential conductance of atomic wires is given by the index of a certain operator. We also comment on how the formalism can be used to probe the existence of edge states

  18. Characterizing Ensembles of Superconducting Qubits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, Adam; Birenbaum, Jeff; Hover, David; Rosenberg, Danna; Weber, Steven; Yoder, Jonilyn L.; Kerman, Jamie; Gustavsson, Simon; Kamal, Archana; Yan, Fei; Oliver, William

    We investigate ensembles of up to 48 superconducting qubits embedded within a superconducting cavity. Such arrays of qubits have been proposed for the experimental study of Ising Hamiltonians, and efficient methods to characterize and calibrate these types of systems are still under development. Here we leverage high qubit coherence (> 70 μs) to characterize individual devices as well as qubit-qubit interactions, utilizing the common resonator mode for a joint readout. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of ODNI, IARPA, or the US Government.

  19. Formability behavior studies on CP-Al sheets processed through the helical tool path of incremental forming process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markanday, H.; Nagarajan, D.

    2018-02-01

    Incremental sheet forming (ISF) is a novel die-less sheet metal forming process, which can produce components directly from the CAD geometry using a CNC milling machine at less production time and cost. The formability of the sheet material used is greatly affected by the process parameters involved and tool path adopted, and the present study is aimed to investigate the influence of different process parameter values using the helical tool path strategy on the formability of a commercial pure Al and to achieve maximum formability in the material. ISF experiments for producing an 80 mm diameter axisymmetric dome were carried out on 2 mm thickness commercially pure Al sheets for different tool speeds and feed rates in a CNC milling machine with a 10 mm hemispherical forming tool. The obtained parts were analyzed for springback, amount of thinning and maximum forming depth. The results showed that when the tool speed was increased by keeping the feed rate constant, the forming depth and thinning were also increased. On contrary, when the feed rate was increased by keeping the tool speed constant, the forming depth and thinning were decreased. Springback was found to be higher when the feed rate was increased rather than the tool speed was increased.

  20. The Effects of Classical Guitar Ensembles on Student Self-Perceptions and Acquisition of Music Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, John R.

    2012-01-01

    Classical guitar ensembles are increasing in the United States as popular alternatives to band, choir, and orchestra. Classical guitar ensembles are offered at many middle and high schools as fine arts electives as one of the only options for classical guitarists to participate in ensembles. The purpose of this study was to explore the development…

  1. Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

    2017-10-01

    Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

  2. EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

    2016-04-19

    We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

  3. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Andy; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2015-04-01

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), and co-sponsored by the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC). The HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support. HEPEX pursues this goal through research efforts and practical implementations involving six core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. HEPEX has grown through meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. In the last decade, HEPEX has organized over a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Through these interactions and an active online blog (www.hepex.org), HEPEX has built a strong and active community of nearly 400 researchers & practitioners around the world. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

  4. Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven eMorrison

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor’s gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance, articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and nonmajors (N = 285 viewed sixteen 30-second performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble’s articulation, dynamics, technique and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble’s performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

  5. PENGGUNAAN SKEMA KONVEKTIF MODEL CUACA WRF (BETTS MILLER JANJIC, KAIN FRITSCH DAN GRELL 3D ENSEMBLE (Studi kasus: Surabaya dan Jakarta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roni Kurniawan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pada kajian ini dilakukan evaluasi penggunaan beberapa skema konvektif pada model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting untuk prediksi cuaca di wilayah Indonesia. Terdapat tiga skema konvektif yang akan dievaluasi yaitu; skema konvektif cumulus BMJ (Betts Miller Janjic, KF (Kain Fritsch, dan GD (Grell 3D ensemble. Data yang digunakan untuk evaluasi adalah data curah hujan per 3 jam dan data angin per 12 jam (level ketinggian; permukaan, 850, 500, 250 mb dari hasil pengolahan model WRF dan observasi selama periode bulan Agustus 2011 dan Februari 2012 di stasiun Juanda-Surabaya dan Cengkareng-Jakarta. Hasil verifikasi dari tiga skema konvektif pada model WRF terhadap data observasi menunjukkan bahwa untuk prakiraan curah hujan, penggunaan skema konvektif BMJ lebih baik dari skema KF dan GD, dan untuk prakiraan arah dan kecepatan angin skema BMJ dan GD relatif lebih baik dari skema KF. Berdasarkan analisis hasil verifikasi yang diperoleh, pemilihan skema konvektif cumulus BMJ cenderung lebih baik dari skema konvektif KF dan GD untuk di aplikasikan pada model WRF.   In this study, the use of some convective schemes on the model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting for weather prediction in Indonesian region has been evaluated. There are two models evaluated; BMJ cumulus convective scheme (Betts Miller Janjic, KF (Kain Fritsch, and GD (Grell 3D ensemble. The data used in the evaluation are the 3 hourly rainfall data, and the 12 hourly wind data (level height; surface, 850, 500, 250mb from the WRF models and observation processing during August 2011 and February 2012 period at the Juanda-Surabaya and Cengkareng-Jakarta stations. The results of the verification of the three convective schemes in WRF models against observation data indicate that for precipitation forecasts, the application of the BMJ convective scheme is better than the KF and GD schemes, and for direction and wind speed forecast, BMJ and GD schemes is relatively better than the KF

  6. Experimental and numerical study of the relation between flow paths and fate of a pesticide in a riparian wetland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kidmose, Jacob Baarstrøm; Dahl, Mette; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard

    2010-01-01

    flow paths, residence times, as well as bromide and Isoproturon distributions. The wetland can be characterized by two distinct riparian flow paths; one flow path discharges 2/3 of the incoming groundwater directly to the free water surface of the wetland near the foot of the hillslope with an average...... residence time of 205days, and another flow path diffusively discharging the remaining 1/3 of the incoming groundwater to the stream with an average residence time of 425days. The reactive transport simulations reveal that Isoproturon is retarded by a factor of 2–4, which is explained by the high organic...

  7. Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chia, A. C. E.; LaPierre, R. R.

    2011-06-01

    The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.

  8. The X-Ray Surveyor Mission Concept Study: Forging the Path to NASA Astrophysics 2020 Decadal Survey Prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskin, Jessica; Ozel, Feryal; Vikhlinin, Alexey

    2016-01-01

    The X-Ray Surveyor mission concept is unique among those being studied for prioritization in the NASA Astrophysics 2020 Decadal Survey. The X-Ray Surveyor mission will explore the high-energy Universe; providing essential and complimentary observations to the Astronomy Community. The NASA Astrophysics Roadmap (Enduring Quests, Daring Visions) describes the need for an X-Ray Observatory that is capable of addressing topics such as the origin and growth of the first supermassive black holes, galaxy evolution and growth of the cosmic structure, and the origin and evolution of the stars that make up our Universe. To address these scientifically compelling topics and more, an Observatory that exhibits leaps in capability over that of previous X-Ray Observatories in needed. This paper describes the current status of the X-Ray Surveyor Mission Concept Study and the path forward, which includes scientific investigations, technology development, and community participation.

  9. The X-Ray Surveyor mission concept study: forging the path to NASA astrophysics 2020 decadal survey prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaskin, Jessica; Özel, Feryal; Vikhlinin, Alexey

    2016-07-01

    The X-Ray Surveyor mission concept is unique among those being studied for prioritization in the NASA Astrophysics 2020 Decadal Survey. The X-Ray Surveyor mission will explore the high-energy Universe; providing essential and complimentary observations to the Astronomy Community. The NASA Astrophysics Roadmap (Enduring Quests, Daring Visions) describes the need for an X-Ray Observatory that is capable of addressing topics such as the origin and growth of the first supermassive black holes, galaxy evolution and growth of the cosmic structure, and the origin and evolution of the stars that make up our Universe. To address these scientifically compelling topics and more, an Observatory that exhibits leaps in capability over that of previous X-Ray Observatories in needed. This paper describes the current status of the X-Ray Surveyor Mission Concept Study and the path forward, which includes scientific investigations, technology development, and community participation.

  10. The Preschool Activity, Technology, Health, Adiposity, Behaviour and Cognition (PATH-ABC) cohort study: rationale and design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliff, Dylan P; McNeill, Jade; Vella, Stewart; Howard, Steven J; Kelly, Megan A; Angus, Douglas J; Wright, Ian M; Santos, Rute; Batterham, Marijka; Melhuish, Edward; Okely, Anthony D; de Rosnay, Marc

    2017-04-04

    Prevalence estimates internationally suggest that many preschool-aged children (3-5 years) are insufficiently physically active and engage in high levels of screen-based entertainment. Early childhood is the developmental period for which we know the least about the effects of physical activity on development and health. Likewise, rapid technological advancements in mobile electronic media have made screen-based forms of entertainment for young children ubiquitous, and research demonstrating the impacts on cognition, psychosocial well-being, and health has lagged behind the rate of adoption of these technologies. The purpose of the Preschool Activity, Technology, Health, Adiposity, Behaviour and Cognition (PATH-ABC) study is to investigate if physical activity and screen-based entertainment are independently associated with cognitive and psychosocial development, and health outcomes in young children, and if so, how much and which types of these behaviours might be most influential. The PATH-ABC study is a prospective cohort, aiming to recruit 430 3-5 year-old children. Children are recruited through and complete initial assessments at their Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) centre, and then 12-months later at their centre or school. Direct assessments are made of children's habitual physical activity using accelerometry, cognitive (executive function) and language development (expressive vocabulary), psychosocial development (emotional understanding, Theory of Mind, empathy, and heart rate variability), adiposity (body mass index and waist circumference), and cardiovascular health (blood pressure and retinal micro- vasculature). Educators report on children's psychological strengths and difficulties and self-regulation. Parents report on children's habitual use of electronic media and other child, parent and household characteristics. The PATH-ABC study aims to provide evidence to enhance understanding of how much and which types of physical activity and

  11. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Moroz, Irene M.

    2010-01-01

    However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  12. Ensemble manifold regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng

    2012-06-01

    We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  13. Preferential Flow Paths In A Karstified Spring Catchment: A Study Of Fault Zones As Conduits To Rapid Groundwater Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordilla, J.; Terrell, A. N.; Veltri, M.; Sauter, M.; Schmidt, S.

    2017-12-01

    In this study we model saturated and unsaturated flow in the karstified Weendespring catchment, located within the Leinetal graben in Goettingen, Germany. We employ the finite element COMSOL Multiphysics modeling software to model variably saturated flow using the Richards equation with a van Genuchten type parameterization. As part of the graben structure, the Weende spring catchment is intersected by seven fault zones along the main flow path of the 7400 m cross section of the catchment. As the Weende spring is part of the drinking water supply in Goettingen, it is particularly important to understand the vulnerability of the catchment and effect of fault zones on rapid transport of contaminants. Nitrate signals have been observed at the spring only a few days after the application of fertilizers within the catchment at a distance of approximately 2km. As the underlying layers are known to be highly impermeable, fault zones within the area are likely to create rapid flow paths to the water table and the spring. The model conceptualizes the catchment as containing three hydrogeological limestone units with varying degrees of karstification: the lower Muschelkalk limestone as a highly conductive layer, the middle Muschelkalk as an aquitard, and the upper Muschelkalk as another conductive layer. The fault zones are parameterized based on a combination of field data from quarries, remote sensing and literary data. The fault zone is modeled considering the fracture core as well as the surrounding damage zone with separate, specific hydraulic properties. The 2D conceptual model was implemented in COMSOL to study unsaturated flow at the catchment scale using van Genuchten parameters. The study demonstrates the importance of fault zones for preferential flow within the catchment and its effect on the spatial distribution of vulnerability.

  14. Making Their Own Path: Preservice Teachers' Development of Purpose in Social Studies Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Todd S.; Crowe, Alicia R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite a solid body of research on rationale development in social studies teacher education, little research exists exploring how social studies preservice teachers' purposes develop over time. This article presents four examples of social studies preservice teachers as they grappled with developing a purpose for teaching social studies.…

  15. The Ensembl genome database project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, T; Barker, D; Birney, E; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Huminiecki, L; Kasprzyk, A; Lehvaslaiho, H; Lijnzaad, P; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Pocock, M; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Clamp, M

    2002-01-01

    The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of the human genome sequence, with confirmed gene predictions that have been integrated with external data sources, and is available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. It is also an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation. The Ensembl site is one of the leading sources of human genome sequence annotation and provided much of the analysis for publication by the international human genome project of the draft genome. The Ensembl system is being installed around the world in both companies and academic sites on machines ranging from supercomputers to laptops.

  16. The contribution of personality and workplace characteristics in predicting turnover intention among sexual assault nurse examiners: a path analytic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strunk, Kathleen C; Strunk, Kamden K

    2012-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine how personality characteristics, sense of organizational empowerment, and job satisfaction combine to predict turnover intention among a population of Sexual Assault Nurse Examiners (SANEs). Data were collected from 161 SANEs from 23 SANE organizations across the central and west United States through standardized tools and a demographic questionnaire. Both personality, namely agreeableness and workplace characteristics, particularly perceived empowerment and job satisfaction, combine to predict intention to leave the job of these sampled SANEs. One particularly curious finding was the positive prediction of agreeableness on turnover intention - that is, more agreeable people would be more likely to leave their jobs as SANEs. Professionals can gain insight from the path analysis results that show the need to address both personal and organizational factors in mitigating turnover intention among SANEs. This appears to be particularly true in providing a sense of empowerment and opportunity within the organization. © 2012 International Association of Forensic Nurses.

  17. Cell_motility: a cross-platform, open source application for the study of cell motion paths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gevaert Kris

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Migration is an important aspect of cellular behaviour and is therefore widely studied in cell biology. Numerous components are known to participate in this process in a highly dynamic manner. In order to obtain a better insight in cell migration, mutants or drugs are used and their motive phenotype is then linked with the disturbing factors. One of the typical approaches to study motion paths of individual cells relies on fitting mean square displacements to a persistent random walk function. Since the numerous calculations involved often rely on diverse commercial software packages, the analysis can be expensive, labour-intensive and error-prone work. Additionally, due to the nature of algorithms employed the calculations involved are not readily reproducible without access to the exact software package(s used. Results We here present the cell_motility software, an open source Java application under the GNU-GPL license that provides a clear and concise analysis workbench for large amounts of cell motion data. Apart from performing the necessary calculations, the software also visualizes the original motion paths as well as the results of the calculations to help the user interpret the data. The application features an intuitive graphical user interface as well as full user and developer documentation and both source and binary files can be freely downloaded from the project website at http://genesis.UGent.be/cell_motility . Conclusion In providing a free, open source software solution for the automated processing of cell motion data, we aim to achieve two important goals: labs can greatly simplify their data analysis pipeline as switching between different computational software packages becomes obsolete (thus reducing the chances for human error during data manipulation and transfer and secondly, to provide scientists in the field with a freely available common platform to perform their analyses, enabling more efficient

  18. Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-06-01

    ensemble average, improves a prediction system. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Our study shows that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure applying the average during the model run, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution.

  19. Hard paths, soft paths or no paths? Cross-cultural perceptions of water solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wutich, A.; White, A. C.; White, D. D.; Larson, K. L.; Brewis, A.; Roberts, C.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we examine how development status and water scarcity shape people's perceptions of "hard path" and "soft path" water solutions. Based on ethnographic research conducted in four semi-rural/peri-urban sites (in Bolivia, Fiji, New Zealand, and the US), we use content analysis to conduct statistical and thematic comparisons of interview data. Our results indicate clear differences associated with development status and, to a lesser extent, water scarcity. People in the two less developed sites were more likely to suggest hard path solutions, less likely to suggest soft path solutions, and more likely to see no path to solutions than people in the more developed sites. Thematically, people in the two less developed sites envisioned solutions that involve small-scale water infrastructure and decentralized, community-based solutions, while people in the more developed sites envisioned solutions that involve large-scale infrastructure and centralized, regulatory water solutions. People in the two water-scarce sites were less likely to suggest soft path solutions and more likely to see no path to solutions (but no more likely to suggest hard path solutions) than people in the water-rich sites. Thematically, people in the two water-rich sites seemed to perceive a wider array of unrealized potential soft path solutions than those in the water-scarce sites. On balance, our findings are encouraging in that they indicate that people are receptive to soft path solutions in a range of sites, even those with limited financial or water resources. Our research points to the need for more studies that investigate the social feasibility of soft path water solutions, particularly in sites with significant financial and natural resource constraints.

  20. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

  1. Diagnostic and therapeutic path of breast cancer: effectiveness, appropriateness, and costs – results from the DOCMa study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovagnoli MR

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Maria Rosaria Giovagnoli,1 Adriana Bonifacino,2 Cosimo Neglia,3 Marco Benvenuto,3,4 Francesco Vincenzo Sambati,3 Lorenzo Giolli,5 Alessandra Giovagnoli,6 Prisco Piscitelli7,8 1Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, 2Department of Medical-Surgical Sciences and Translational Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Sant’Andrea University Hospital, Rome, 3Euro Mediterranean Scientific Biomedical Institute (ISBEM, Brindisi, 4Department of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, 5eCampus University, Novedrate, 6Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, 7Coleman Ltd, 8IOS, Southern Italy Hospital Institute, Naples, ItalyObjective: An increase in breast cancer incidence has been documented in Italy and in other countries, and some women decide by themselves to undergo diagnostic examinations outside the official screening campaigns. The aim of this paper was to analyze – in terms of effectiveness, appropriate access, and related costs – the path spontaneously followed by a sample of Italian women for the early diagnosis of breast cancer.Subjects and methods: A total of 143 women who consecutively referred themselves to the breast cancer outpatient facilities at the Sant’Andrea University Hospital in Rome from May to June 2007 were enrolled in the study, gave their consent, and were screened according to their individual risk factors for breast cancer. The entire diagnostic and therapeutic path followed in the previous 2 years by each of them, either at Sant’Andrea or in other medical facilities, was reviewed and evaluated in terms of its operative efficiency and fair economic value.Results: The subjects’ mean age was 47.5 years (standard deviation 13.6 years; 55% of the women were <50 years old (28% <40 years, and were thus not included in the official screening campaigns; 97 women (70% were requesting a routine control; and 49% of them had already undergone four to seven examinations before the

  2. Lipid Dynamics Studied by Calculation of 31P Solid-State NMR Spectra Using Ensembles from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Sara Krogh; Vestergaard, Mikkel; Thøgersen, Lea

    2014-01-01

    , for example, order parameters. Therefore, valuable insight into the dynamics of biomolecules may be achieved by the present method. We have applied this method to study the dynamics of lipid bilayers containing the antimicrobial peptide alamethicin, and we show that the calculated 31P spectra obtained...

  3. Cis-to- Trans Isomerization of Azobenzene Derivatives Studied with Transition Path Sampling and Quantum Mechanical/Molecular Mechanical Molecular Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muždalo, Anja; Saalfrank, Peter; Vreede, Jocelyne; Santer, Mark

    2018-04-10

    Azobenzene-based molecular photoswitches are becoming increasingly important for the development of photoresponsive, functional soft-matter material systems. Upon illumination with light, fast interconversion between a more stable trans and a metastable cis configuration can be established resulting in pronounced changes in conformation, dipole moment or hydrophobicity. A rational design of functional photosensitive molecules with embedded azo moieties requires a thorough understanding of isomerization mechanisms and rates, especially the thermally activated relaxation. For small azo derivatives considered in the gas phase or simple solvents, Eyring's classical transition state theory (TST) approach yields useful predictions for trends in activation energies or corresponding half-life times of the cis isomer. However, TST or improved theories cannot easily be applied when the azo moiety is part of a larger molecular complex or embedded into a heterogeneous environment, where a multitude of possible reaction pathways may exist. In these cases, only the sampling of an ensemble of dynamic reactive trajectories (transition path sampling, TPS) with explicit models of the environment may reveal the nature of the processes involved. In the present work we show how a TPS approach can conveniently be implemented for the phenomenon of relaxation-isomerization of azobenzenes starting with the simple examples of pure azobenzene and a push-pull derivative immersed in a polar (DMSO) and apolar (toluene) solvent. The latter are represented explicitly at a molecular mechanical (MM) and the azo moiety at a quantum mechanical (QM) level. We demonstrate for the push-pull azobenzene that path sampling in combination with the chosen QM/MM scheme produces the expected change in isomerization pathway from inversion to rotation in going from a low to a high permittivity (explicit) solvent model. We discuss the potential of the simulation procedure presented for comparative calculation of

  4. Path Dependence and Foreign Policy: A Case Study of United States Policy toward Lebanon

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Reyes, Raymond

    2004-01-01

    ... there. What has often been overlooked is the historical legacy of a tiny nation in the Levant: Lebanon. Many studies show Lebanon as a viable democracy prior to the start of its civil war in 1975...

  5. Punctuation and Implicit Prosody in Silent Reading: An ERP Study Investigating English Garden-Path Sentences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, John E; Baum, Shari R; Valeriote, Hope; Steinhauer, Karsten

    2016-01-01

    This study presents the first two ERP reading studies of comma-induced effects of covert (implicit) prosody on syntactic parsing decisions in English. The first experiment used a balanced 2 × 2 design in which the presence/absence of commas determined plausibility (e.g., John, said Mary, was the nicest boy at the party vs. John said Mary was the nicest boy at the party ). The second reading experiment replicated a previous auditory study investigating the role of overt prosodic boundaries in closure ambiguities (Pauker et al., 2011). In both experiments, commas reliably elicited CPS components and generally played a dominant role in determining parsing decisions in the face of input ambiguity. The combined set of findings provides further evidence supporting the claim that mechanisms subserving speech processing play an active role during silent reading.

  6. Punctuation and Implicit Prosody in Silent Reading: An ERP Study Investigating English Garden-Path Sentences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, John E.; Baum, Shari R.; Valeriote, Hope; Steinhauer, Karsten

    2016-01-01

    This study presents the first two ERP reading studies of comma-induced effects of covert (implicit) prosody on syntactic parsing decisions in English. The first experiment used a balanced 2 × 2 design in which the presence/absence of commas determined plausibility (e.g., John, said Mary, was the nicest boy at the party vs. John said Mary was the nicest boy at the party). The second reading experiment replicated a previous auditory study investigating the role of overt prosodic boundaries in closure ambiguities (Pauker et al., 2011). In both experiments, commas reliably elicited CPS components and generally played a dominant role in determining parsing decisions in the face of input ambiguity. The combined set of findings provides further evidence supporting the claim that mechanisms subserving speech processing play an active role during silent reading. PMID:27695428

  7. Punctuation and implicit prosody in silent reading: An ERP study investigating English garden-path sentences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. Drury

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the first two ERP reading studies of comma-induced effects of covert (implicit prosody on syntactic parsing decisions in English. The first experiment used a balanced 2 x 2 design in which the presence/absence of commas determined plausibility (e.g., John, said Mary, was the nicest boy at the party versus John said Mary was the nicest boy at the party. The second reading experiment replicated a previous auditory study investigating the role of overt prosodic boundaries in closure ambiguities (Pauker et al., 2011. In both experiments, commas reliably elicited CPS components and generally played a dominant role in determining parsing decisions in the face of input ambiguity. The combined set of findings provides further evidence supporting the claim that mechanisms subserving speech processing play an active role during silent reading.

  8. Feynman's path integrals and Bohm's particle paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tumulka, Roderich

    2005-01-01

    Both Bohmian mechanics, a version of quantum mechanics with trajectories, and Feynman's path integral formalism have something to do with particle paths in space and time. The question thus arises how the two ideas relate to each other. In short, the answer is, path integrals provide a re-formulation of Schroedinger's equation, which is half of the defining equations of Bohmian mechanics. I try to give a clear and concise description of the various aspects of the situation. (letters and comments)

  9. 77 FR 29667 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-18

    ... partnership with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Using annual interviews and the collection of bio-specimens from adults, the study is designed to establish a population-based framework for monitoring and... the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (FSPTCA) to regulate tobacco-product advertising...

  10. A Path Analysis Study of School Culture and Teachers' Organisational Commitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadag, Engin; Baloglu, Nuri; Cakir, Abdullah

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the direct and indirect relations between school culture and the organisational commitment of primary school teachers were analyzed. The subjects of the research consisted of primary school teachers who worked at a district in Istanbul in the academic year 2007-2008. The sampling group was defined by the cluster sampling method. In…

  11. Short-Term Study Abroad: Culture and the Path of Least Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmons, Kelly

    2015-01-01

    American universities are decreasing the length of study abroad programs in an effort to send more students abroad. Recent publications find that "short-term" programs struggle to increase participants' cultural understanding. However, these research findings fail to offer an explanation as to why shorter programs are falling short. This…

  12. Clearing a Hurried Path: Study on Education Programs for Migrant Workers in Six Asian Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalba, Noel C.

    Against the backdrop of the Asian economic crisis, this study examined the range of education programs for migrant workers in six Asian countries. Surveys were returned from 145 migrant worker support organizations in three host countries--Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan--and three sending countries--the Philippines, Indonesia, and India. The…

  13. Viewing Social Scenes: A Visual Scan-Path Study Comparing Fragile X Syndrome and Williams Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Tracey A.; Porter, Melanie A.; Langdon, Robyn

    2013-01-01

    Fragile X syndrome (FXS) and Williams syndrome (WS) are both genetic disorders which present with similar cognitive-behavioral problems, but distinct social phenotypes. Despite these social differences both syndromes display poor social relations which may result from abnormal social processing. This study aimed to manipulate the location of…

  14. Career Anchors and Career Paths: A Panel Study of Management School Graduates. Technical Report No. 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schein, Edgar H.

    The first of a series, this report describes a 10-year followup study of a sample of 44 graduates of the Sloan School of Management, analyzing the interaction of personal values and career events in the lives of managers in organizations. All 44 participants were located, interviewed, and given the same attitude surveys as in the early 1960's.…

  15. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-05-25

    Ocean forecasts nowadays are created by running ensemble simulations in combination with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. This means that in a time series, after resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. In this work we present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow such a mapping interactively, instead of tracing quadrillions of individual particles. We achieve interactive rates by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next time step. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.

  16. The New Worlds Observer: An Optimal Path to Direct Study of Earth-like Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Webster C., Jr.; New Worlds Study Team

    2009-01-01

    Direct detection and spectroscopic study of the planets around the nearby stars is generally recognized as a prime goal of astronomy. The New Worlds Observer mission concept is being studied as an Astrophysics Strategic Mission Concept Study for this purpose. NWO features two spacecraft: a general purpose 4m telescope that operates from the UV to the Near IR, and a starshade, a flower-shaped occulter about 50m in diameter flying in alignment about 70,000km away. Our study shows this is the most effective way to map nearby planetary systems. In this poster we will show that NWO can return much more science than any of the competing approaches at any given price point. Images will show dust and debris down to a fraction of our zodiacal light level. Planets fainter than the Earth can be seen from the Habitable Zone outward, at distances up to 20pc. High throughput and low noise enable immediate follow-up spectroscopy of discovered planets. NWO can discover many more Earth-like planets than all competing approaches including astrometric, interferometric, and internal coronagraphic. Within hours of discovery, a high quality spectrum can determine the true nature of the exoplanet and open the search for biomarkers and life. Over half of the time will be spent with the starshade in transit to the next target. During those times the telescope will be available to for general astrophysics purposes. Operating from the ultraviolet to the near infrared, this will be a true HST follow-on. The study shows all needed technologies already exist. The cost scales primarily with telescope size. The mission is definitely within the financial and technical reach of NASA for the coming decade.

  17. Errant paths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinder, David

    2011-01-01

    Walking has moved into increasing visibility in social, cultural, and geographical studies as well as art and cultural practice in recent times.Walking practices are often mobilised as a means for sensing and learning about spaces, for enabling reflection on the mutual constitution of bodies...... and landscapes, and for finding meaning within and potentially re-enchanting environments. Through the influence of Michel de Certeau in particular, the idea that walking `encunciates' spaces and is a creative, elusive, and resistive everyday practice, counterpoised to the `solar eye', has become commonplace....... This paper focuses on projects by the artist Francis Aly«s that are based on walking in London and other cities, to consider their engagements with the politics of urban space. Attention is paid to walking as his method of unfolding stories, and to its potential to unsettle and bring into question current...

  18. Ensemble hydrological forecast efficiency evolution over various issue dates and lead-time: case study for the Cheboksary reservoir (Volga River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfan, Alexander; Moreido, Vsevolod

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble hydrological forecasting allows for describing uncertainty caused by variability of meteorological conditions in the river basin for the forecast lead-time. At the same time, in snowmelt-dependent river basins another significant source of uncertainty relates to variability of initial conditions of the basin (snow water equivalent, soil moisture content, etc.) prior to forecast issue. Accurate long-term hydrological forecast is most crucial for large water management systems, such as the Cheboksary reservoir (the catchment area is 374 000 sq.km) located in the Middle Volga river in Russia. Accurate forecasts of water inflow volume, maximum discharge and other flow characteristics are of great value for this basin, especially before the beginning of the spring freshet season that lasts here from April to June. The semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG was used to develop long-term ensemble forecast of daily water inflow into the Cheboksary reservoir. To describe variability of the meteorological conditions and construct ensemble of possible weather scenarios for the lead-time of the forecast, two approaches were applied. The first one utilizes 50 weather scenarios observed in the previous years (similar to the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure), the second one uses 1000 synthetic scenarios simulated by a stochastic weather generator. We investigated the evolution of forecast uncertainty reduction, expressed as forecast efficiency, over various consequent forecast issue dates and lead time. We analyzed the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of inflow hindcasts for the period 1982 to 2016 starting from 1st of March with 15 days frequency for lead-time of 1 to 6 months. This resulted in the forecast efficiency matrix with issue dates versus lead-time that allows for predictability identification of the basin. The matrix was constructed separately for observed and synthetic weather ensembles.

  19. A WRF/Chem sensitivity study using ensemble modelling for a high ozone episode in Slovenia and the Northern Adriatic area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žabkar, Rahela; Koračin, Darko; Rakovec, Jože

    2013-10-01

    A high ozone (O3) concentrations episode during a heat wave event in the Northeastern Mediterranean was investigated using the WRF/Chem model. To understand the major model uncertainties and errors as well as the impacts of model inputs on the model accuracy, an ensemble modelling experiment was conducted. The 51-member ensemble was designed by varying model physics parameterization options (PBL schemes with different surface layer and land-surface modules, and radiation schemes); chemical initial and boundary conditions; anthropogenic and biogenic emission inputs; and model domain setup and resolution. The main impacts of the geographical and emission characteristics of three distinct regions (suburban Mediterranean, continental urban, and continental rural) on the model accuracy and O3 predictions were investigated. In spite of the large ensemble set size, the model generally failed to simulate the extremes; however, as expected from probabilistic forecasting the ensemble spread improved results with respect to extremes compared to the reference run. Noticeable model nighttime overestimations at the Mediterranean and some urban and rural sites can be explained by too strong simulated winds, which reduce the impact of dry deposition and O3 titration in the near surface layers during the nighttime. Another possible explanation could be inaccuracies in the chemical mechanisms, which are suggested also by model insensitivity to variations in the nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. Major impact factors for underestimations of the daytime O3 maxima at the Mediterranean and some rural sites include overestimation of the PBL depths, a lack of information on forest fires, too strong surface winds, and also possible inaccuracies in biogenic emissions. This numerical experiment with the ensemble runs also provided guidance on an optimum model setup and input data.

  20. Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Herger

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

  1. Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2018-02-01

    End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

  2. Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.

    2018-06-01

    Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p  <  0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more

  3. Path coupling and aggregate path coupling

    CERN Document Server

    Kovchegov, Yevgeniy

    2018-01-01

    This book describes and characterizes an extension to the classical path coupling method applied to statistical mechanical models, referred to as aggregate path coupling. In conjunction with large deviations estimates, the aggregate path coupling method is used to prove rapid mixing of Glauber dynamics for a large class of statistical mechanical models, including models that exhibit discontinuous phase transitions which have traditionally been more difficult to analyze rigorously. The book shows how the parameter regions for rapid mixing for several classes of statistical mechanical models are derived using the aggregate path coupling method.

  4. Contributions of ANPEd to the consolidation process of Brazilian Postgraduate studies: historical paths and current scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Margarida Machado

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article results the bibliographic and documentary search whose the purpose is reconstitute the historicity to search association, in the context of 50 years to the politic institutionalization on Postgraduate in Brazil, with specific emphasis in the ANPEd - National Association of Postgraduate Studies and Research in Education. The analysis was performed based in the recent politics diary association, especially in the monitoring and positioning in the approval of Law 13.005/2014, which deals with the National Education Plan 2014-2024, with reference to Gramsci’s conception of Expanded State. Studies indicate tensions and challenges faced by ANPEd, from the participation of its members in political society, where the formulators change to executors of national policies, while showing the potential and limits of the association to remain as an entity autonomous civil society in defense of a public, free, secular and quality education for all.

  5. Blocked All-Pairs Shortest Paths Algorithm on Intel Xeon Phi KNL Processor: A Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Rucci, Enzo; De Giusti, Armando Eduardo; Naiouf, Marcelo

    2017-01-01

    Manycores are consolidating in HPC community as a way of improving performance while keeping power efficiency. Knights Landing is the recently released second generation of Intel Xeon Phi architec- ture.While optimizing applications on CPUs, GPUs and first Xeon Phi’s has been largely studied in the last years, the new features in Knights Landing processors require the revision of programming and optimization techniques for these devices. In this work, we selected the Floyd-Warshall algorithm ...

  6. Development path and current status of the NANIVID: a new device for cancer cell studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Waseem Khan; Padgen, Michael R.; Williams, James K.; Wyckoff, Jeffrey; Condeelis, John; Castracane, James

    2011-02-01

    Cancer cells create a unique microenvironment in vivo which enables migration to distant organs. To better understand the tumor microenvironment, special tools and devices are required to monitor the interactions between different cell types and the effects of particular chemical gradients. This study presents the design and optimization of a new, versatile chemotaxis device called the NANIVID (NANo IntraVital Device). The device is fabricated using BioMEMS techniques and consists of etched and bonded Pyrex substrates, a soluble factor reservoir, fluorescent tracking beads and a microelectrode array for cell quantification. The reservoir contains a customized hydrogel blend loaded with EGF which diffuses out of the hydrogel to create a chemotactic gradient. This reservoir sustains a steady release of growth factor into the surrounding environment for many hours and establishes a concentration gradient that attracts specific cells to the device. In addition to a cell collection tool, the NANIVID can be modified to act as a delivery vehicle for the local generation of alternate soluble factor gradients to initiate controlled changes to the microenvironment such as hypoxia, ECM stiffness and etc. The focus of this study is to design and optimize the new device for wide ranging studies of breast cancer cell dynamics in vitro and ultimately, implantation for in vivo work.

  7. Developing of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period

    OpenAIRE

    Pansak Vandee

    2013-01-01

    The research titled “Developing of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period" aimed 1) to study the history of Thai Classical Music Ensemble in Rattanakosin Period and 2) to analyze changing in each period of Rattanakosin Era. This is the historical and documentary research. The data was collected by in-depth interview those musicians, and academic music experts and field study. The focus group discussion was conducted to analyze and conclude the findings. The research found that t...

  8. Creating new path for Old Industrial Areas: A Case Study on Dalian city, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yimei Yin and Zhigao Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The formation of new industries has recently been widely studied, but little research attention has been paid to the formation of new industries in old industrial districts, especially in transitional countries such as China. Based on fieldwork and rereading historical archives, this paper uses an example of Dalian tourism cluster to contribute to understanding the emergence of new economy in old industrial areas in a transitional country. The Section 2 of this paper will provide the theoretical framework from evolutionary economics for my empirical study. In Section 3, this paper will discuss the main characteristics of the decline of old industrial areas in Northeast China and the significances of developing new economy to revitalizing old industry areas. Section 4 will introduce the transitional history of Dalian economy from a high industrial region to a new economy city and also provides descriptive information about the development process of Dalian tourism industry. In Section 5, this paper will probe into the dynamics of the Dalian tourism cluster, from viewpoints of co-evolution and co-adaptation of firm, technology and institutions. Finally, we will give some policy suggestions of how to foster and promote new industries in old industrial areas, especially for transitional countries.

  9. Study on the path selection of sustainable development in the mountainous area of Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Malin; Zhou, Zhujun; Zhang, Huizhi; Chen, Ci; Chen, Junhong; Zhou, Zhongren

    2018-02-01

    The mountainous area of Beijing is the broad region with weak economic features, ecologically fragile and special ecological functions. The ecological conditions, sustainability and regional economic development are intercorrelated in the region. It is arduous to enhance the regional competitive advantage and improve the economic development level through the environmental protection and ecological conservation. This study elaborates the relationship between ecology and economic development from the perspectives of ecology, productivity and life style in mountainous areas of Beijing. Then this paper discusses how to increase sustainable development of mountain areas from several aspects, including key regional developments, industrial development, and ecological compensation mechanism, considering the strategic goals of accelerating economic transformation, coordinating urban and rural development, and promoting new-type urbanization.

  10. Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

    2015-01-01

    Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

  11. The impact of urbanization on subsurface flow paths - A paired-catchment isotopic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonneau, Jeremie; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Witt, Roman; Drysdale, Russell N.; Costelloe, Justin F.

    2018-06-01

    Urbanization disturbs groundwater flow through the sealing of native soils with impervious surfaces and through modifications to the subsoil by constructed drainage and other infrastructure (trenches and excavations, e.g. water supply). The impact of these disturbances on groundwater contributions to urban streams (i.e. baseflow) is poorly understood. While high flows caused by impervious runoff to streams are a common focus of urban studies, the route taken by groundwater to become streamflow in urban landscapes is not generally considered. To assess the impact of urbanization on groundwater sources to streams, both rainfall and baseflow were sampled weekly for stable isotopes of water in two nearby streams-one draining a peri-urban catchment and the other draining a forested, natural catchment. In addition, to study the rate of groundwater discharge to the stream, monthly baseflow recession behavior was investigated. We found that baseflow in the forested catchment was constant in stable isotope values (δ18O = -5.73‰ ± 0.14‰) throughout the year. Monthly baseflow recession constants were close to 1 and had little variation (ranging 0.951-0.992), indicating a well-mixed groundwater store and long residence times. In contrast, the urban baseflow isotopic composition featured distinct seasonal variations (δ18O = -3.35‰ ± 1.20‰ from October to March and δ18O = -4.54‰ ± 0.43‰ from April to September) and high week-to-week variability in summer, reflecting a contribution of recent rainfall to baseflow. Recession constants were lower (ranging 0.727-0.955) with pronounced seasonal variations, suggesting shorter residence times and the likely presence of a variety of stores and pathways. These results provide evidence that the urban catchment has diversified groundwater pathways, and its groundwater storage is drained faster than that of the forested catchment. It highlights some of the subsurface hydrological consequences of urbanization. Restoring low

  12. Study on k-shortest paths with behavioral impedance domain from the intermodal public transportation system perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Hernane Borges de Barros; Pérez Vidal, Lluís; Lozada, Eleazar G. Madrid

    2003-01-01

    Behavioral impedance domain consists of a theory on route planning for pedestrians, within which constraint management is considered. The goal of this paper is to present the k-shortest path model using the behavioral impedance approach. After the mathematical model building, optimization problem and resolution problem by a behavioral impedance algorithm, it is discussed how behavioral impedance cost function is embedded in the k-shortest path model. From the pedestrian's route planning persp...

  13. Forces in Motzkin paths in a wedge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janse van Rensburg, E J

    2006-01-01

    Entropic forces in models of Motzkin paths in a wedge geometry are considered as models of forces in polymers in confined geometries. A Motzkin path in the square lattice is a path from the origin to a point in the line Y = X while it never visits sites below this line, and it is constrained to give unit length steps only in the north and east directions and steps of length √2 in the north-east direction. Motzkin path models may be generalized to ensembles of NE-oriented paths above the line Y = rX, where r > 0 is an irrational number. These are paths giving east, north and north-east steps from the origin in the square lattice, and confined to the r-wedge formed by the Y-axis and the line Y = rX. The generating function g r of these paths is not known, but if r > 1, then I determine its radius of convergence to be t r = min (r-1)/r≤y≤r/(r+1) [y y (1-r(1-y)) 1-r(1-y) (r(1-y)-y) r(1-y)-y ] and if r is an element of (0, 1), then t r = 1/3. The entropic force the path exerts on the line Y rX may be computed from this. An asymptotic expression for the force for large values of r is given by F(r) = log(2r)/r 2 - (1+2log(2r))/2r 3 + O (log(2r)/r 4 ). In terms of the vertex angle α of the r-wedge, the moment of the force about the origin has leading terms F(α) log(2/α) - (α/2)(1+2log(2/α)) + O(α 2 log(2/α)) as α → 0 + and F(α) = 0 if α is element of [π/4, π/2]. Moreover, numerical integration of the force shows that the total work done by closing the wedge is 1.085 07... lattice units. An alternative ensemble of NE-oriented paths may be defined by slightly changing the generating function g r . In this model, it is possible to determine closed-form expressions for the limiting free energy and the force. The leading term in an asymptotic expansions for this force agrees with the leading term in the asymptotic expansion of the above model, and the subleading term only differs by a factor of 2

  14. Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For

  15. Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

    2018-02-09

    Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

  16. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  17. Susto and the career path of the victim of an industrial accident: a sociological case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, G

    1994-04-01

    This is a case study of the processes involved in attaining the status of 'victim' after an industrial accident. In this case a migrant working in the manufacturing industry becomes increasingly 'disabled' and seeks legitimation as a 'victim' who is 'worthy' of financial compensation. The institutional processes involved are the industrial, medical and legal systems. Chronic pain is a condition that often defies an unambiguous diagnosis. Most chronic pain victims are therefore constantly seeking legitimation for their condition as physicians attempt to uncover the aetiology of the pain. Most chronic pain victims also fail to fulfil the expectation of getting well as soon as possible. Physicians can, at best, only give a prognosis that is little better than an 'educated guess'. The conditional nature of the legitimacy gives the chronic pain victims only limited legitimacy for their sick role and this often results in physicians seeking psychological or moral explanations for what began as a relatively simple physical problem. Psychological or psychiatric diagnoses are considerably weaker metaphorically than physiological diagnoses and tend to infer the strong possibility of the victim contributing to her/his condition as a result of hypochondriacal or psychosomatic 'tendencies' or, even worse, 'malingering'. The migrant client can exacerbate this situation through an earnest desire to (over)conform to norms by going along with whatever is recommended by people who hold superior status by virtue of their knowledge and power ('posicíon'). Among some Latin American countries 'over-compliance' has been recognised a socio-medical condition and is termed 'susto'. In the workers' compensation context the shift to overconformity ('susto') results from the uncertainty about receiving (legitimate) acknowledgement and compensation. The desire is to ensure, as far as possible, that a certainty of outcome is achieved (i.e. a return to work or adequate compensation). In other

  18. Mental Health Changes and Its Predictors in Adolescents using the Path Analytic Model: A 7-Year Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This 7-year observational study examines the hours of TV-watching, phone conversation with friends, using the internet, and physical activity as predictors of mental health among adolescents in south of Iran.At the baseline (in 2005, the participants were 2584 high school students in the 9th to 11th grade. At the baseline, 30% of the available participants (n = 775 were selected in the follow-up (2012 using convenience sampling method. This study used the path analysis to examine the predictors of mental health and to obtain direct, indirect and total effects of the independent variables.At the baseline (2005, female gender, internet use, maternal education, physical activity and father's education were associated with mental health (p<0.05. Baseline mental health, internet use and physical activity predicted mental health of the participants in the follow up (p<0.05.The findings of the study revealed that better mental health in later life is associated with better mental health at baseline, male gender, higher physical activity and phone communication with friends, and less use of the internet and TV.

  19. Innovation in emerging energy technologies: A case study analysis to inform the path forward for algal biofuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haase, Rachel; Bielicki, Jeffrey; Kuzma, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Algal biofuel is an emerging energy source that has the potential to improve upon the environmental benefits realized by conventional biofuels and contribute to the biofuels mandate set by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). While there has been much research into producing fuel from algae, a commercial-scale facility has not yet been built. We examine two case studies of energy technology innovation in the United States, first generation biodiesel and solar photovoltaics (PV), using the technological innovation system (TIS) framework to provide lessons and inform the path forward for commercializing algal biofuel. We identify five event types that have been the most influential to these innovation processes: changing expectations, technology development, demonstration projects, policy targets, and government subsidies. Some algal biofuel demonstration projects have occurred, but despite falling under the mandates set forth in the RFS (a policy target), algal biofuels do not currently receive production subsidies. The main finding from the case study analysis is that government interventions have significantly influenced the innovation processes of first generation biodiesel and solar PV and will likely be key factors in the commercialization of algal biofuel. - Highlights: • Two energy technology case studies were analyzed with a TIS framework. • Major drivers in the innovation process were identified in each case. • Government interventions were key factors for both. • The one identified key driver algal biofuel is lacking is federal subsidies. • All components of the TIS framework deserve attention in promoting innovation

  20. Statistical ensembles for money and debt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viaggiu, Stefano; Lionetto, Andrea; Bargigli, Leonardo; Longo, Michele

    2012-10-01

    We build a statistical ensemble representation of two economic models describing respectively, in simplified terms, a payment system and a credit market. To this purpose we adopt the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution where the role of the Hamiltonian is taken by the total money supply (i.e. including money created from debt) of a set of interacting economic agents. As a result, we can read the main thermodynamic quantities in terms of monetary ones. In particular, we define for the credit market model a work term which is related to the impact of monetary policy on credit creation. Furthermore, with our formalism we recover and extend some results concerning the temperature of an economic system, previously presented in the literature by considering only the monetary base as a conserved quantity. Finally, we study the statistical ensemble for the Pareto distribution.

  1. ABCD of Beta Ensembles and Topological Strings

    CERN Document Server

    Krefl, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We study beta-ensembles with Bn, Cn, and Dn eigenvalue measure and their relation with refined topological strings. Our results generalize the familiar connections between local topological strings and matrix models leading to An measure, and illustrate that all those classical eigenvalue ensembles, and their topological string counterparts, are related one to another via various deformations and specializations, quantum shifts and discrete quotients. We review the solution of the Gaussian models via Macdonald identities, and interpret them as conifold theories. The interpolation between the various models is plainly apparent in this case. For general polynomial potential, we calculate the partition function in the multi-cut phase in a perturbative fashion, beyond tree-level in the large-N limit. The relation to refined topological string orientifolds on the corresponding local geometry is discussed along the way.

  2. On-line Learning of Unlearnable True Teacher through Mobile Ensemble Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirama, Takeshi; Hukushima, Koji

    2008-09-01

    The on-line learning of a hierarchical learning model is studied by a method based on statistical mechanics. In our model, a student of a simple perceptron learns from not a true teacher directly, but ensemble teachers who learn from a true teacher with a perceptron learning rule. Since the true teacher and ensemble teachers are expressed as nonmonotonic and simple perceptrons, respectively, the ensemble teachers go around the unlearnable true teacher with the distance between them fixed in an asymptotic steady state. The generalization performance of the student is shown to exceed that of the ensemble teachers in a transient state, as was shown in similar ensemble-teachers models. Furthermore, it is found that moving the ensemble teachers even in the steady state, in contrast to the fixed ensemble teachers, is efficient for the performance of the student.

  3. The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulshan Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.

  4. Electricity Demand Projection Using a Path-Coefficient Analysis and BAG-SA Approach: A Case Study of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunli Wu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Path-coefficient analysis is utilized to investigate the direct and indirect effects of economic growth, population growth, urbanization rate, industrialization level, and carbon intensity on electricity demand of China. To improve the projection accuracy of electricity demand, this study proposes a hybrid bat algorithm, Gaussian perturbations, and simulated annealing (BAG-SA optimization method. The proposed BAG-SA algorithm not only inherits the simplicity and efficiency of the standard BA with a capability of searching for global optimality but also enhances local search ability and speeds up the global convergence rate. The BAG-SA algorithm is employed to optimize the coefficients of the multiple linear and quadratic forms of electricity demand estimation model. Results indicate that the proposed algorithm has higher precision and reliability than the coefficients optimized by other single-optimization methods, such as genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm, or bat algorithm. And the quadratic form of BAG-SA electricity demand estimation model has better fitting ability compared with the multiple linear form of the model. Therefore, the quadratic form of the model is applied to estimate electricity demand of China from 2016 to 2030. The findings of this study demonstrate that China’s electricity demand will reach 14925200 million KWh in 2030.

  5. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  6. Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna L Buczak

    Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

  7. Exploring the path of Mediterranean diet on 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease: the ATTICA study (2002-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagiotakos, D B; Georgousopoulou, E N; Pitsavos, C; Chrysohoou, C; Skoumas, I; Pitaraki, E; Georgiopoulos, G A; Ntertimani, M; Christou, A; Stefanadis, C

    2015-03-01

    A Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality, but the clinical and behavioral pathway has not been well understood and appreciated. The aim of this work was to explore the path between adherence to a Mediterranean-type diet, lifestyle behaviors, clinical status, and a 10-year incidence of CVD. The ATTICA study was carried out in the Athens area during 2001-2002 and included 3042 participants free of CVD at baseline (49.8% men, aged 18-89). Adherence to a Mediterranean diet was assessed using the MedDietScore (range 0-55). During 2011-2012, 2583 out of the 3042 participants were found during the 10-year follow-up (15% lost to follow-up). Adherence to a Mediterranean diet decreased CVD risk (relative Risk (RR) per 1/55 unit = 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93, 1.00), independently of various sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors. Subgroup analyses revealed that participants with an unhealthy lifestyle (i.e., smokers, and obese and sedentary persons) remained protected from CVD through a greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet (RR for smokers = 0.92, 95%CI: 0.88, 0.97; RR for obese participants = 0.90, 95%CI: 0.82, 0.979; and RR for sedentary participants = 0.95, 95%CI: 0.90, 0.99). Path analysis revealed that adherence to a Mediterranean diet not only decreases the levels of C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 but also has an independent protective role against CVD risk per se (total effect of the MedDietScore on CVD = -0.003, 95%CI: -0.005 to 0.000). Adherence to a Mediterranean diet confers a considerable reduction on CVD risk, independent of various factors. Therefore, even subjects with unhealthy lifestyle behaviors may benefit from adherence to this diet, suggesting another dimension to prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Case study as a means of evaluating the impact of early years leaders: Steps, paths and routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadfield, Mark; Jopling, Michael

    2018-04-01

    The paper argues that case study will need to play an increasingly important role in the evaluation of leadership development programmes as both formal and substantive theories of leadership place greater emphasis upon the role played by organizational context on leaders ability to bring about change. Prolonged engagement within a case study provides researchers with opportunities to capture the dynamics between leaders and their organisational contexts. However, adopting a case study approach is no substitute for inadequate theorization of the link between leadership approaches and leadership effects. The paper argues for the use of inclusive and expansive theoretical notions of leadership and its relationship to organisational context. The evaluation used to illustrate these arguments was based on a longitudinal multi-site case study methodology. The case studies ran over a three-year period and tracked the effect of 42 leaders on the quality of provision in some 30 early years settings. Both individual and collective theoires of leadership were used to trace leaders' steps, paths and routes to improvement. Three overlapping theoretical lenses were used to study the dynamics of these leaders interactions with a key aspect of their organisational contexts - the existing formal and informal leadership structures - and how these affected their attempts to improve the quality of provision of their settings. The analysis, and related findings, were tiered in order to provide progressively more detailed descriptions of the relationships between leaders' approaches and changes in their settings' quality of provision. Each layer of analysis operated with a causal logic that became gradually less general and linear and increasingly more 'local' and complex. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

  10. 3D experimental and numerical study of fatigue of a slanted crack path in a thin sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esnault, Jean-Baptiste

    2014-01-01

    Propagation of fatigue cracks in 7075-T6 aluminum and S355 steel were experimentally characterized in air and in a corrosive solution in a CCP specimen. A technique of crack front marking, coupled with a 3D topographic reconstruction of the crack, allowed to characterize the three-dimensional crack path and the crack growth rate at any point of the crack front. Transverse and longitudinal profiles at different propagation stages were used to calculate the twist and tilt angle. In an elastic XFEM framework, stress intensity factors I, II and III, were calculated. While the correlation of experimental crack growth rate with ΔKI is unsatisfactory, the correlation is correct with ΔKeq emphasizing the major contribution of shear modes to the crack driving force. A finite element analysis in elasto plasticity coupled with the application of a local fatigue criterion, which depend on the equivalent plastic strain ahead of the crack front, was qualitatively able to predict the shear lips growth. A modification of the XFEM method is proposed to improve computations with cyclic plasticity. This part is based on an analytical study which suggests to replace the discontinuous 'Heaviside' enrichment by a new continuous enrichment in the elements cut by the crack. The sub-division of the elements cut by the crack, inducing a field projection of the internal variables which introduces an error in the numerical computations, is thus avoided. Convergence test cases show the potentiality of this method. (author)

  11. Study of the Vibration Transmission and Path Recognition of an Underground Powerhouse Using Energy Finite Element Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the underground powerhouse of a pumped storage power station as the engineering background, this study established a 3D finite element model of the main and auxiliary powerhouse and performed the dynamic harmonica calculation for its fluctuating pressure. Based on the power flow theory, the ANSYS Parametric Design Language (APDL procedure was completed to calculate the power transmission in the powerhouse. The law of dominant path recognition was first proposed to assess the structure’s dominant transmission using a numerical solution on nodes in the model. The conductivity of the closed-cell foam that filled the structure’s joints was examined, as were the dynamic transmission features of the rock around and beneath the powerhouse. The results indicated that, as a structural joint filler, closed-cell foam could actively restrict vibration transmission, and the directions of dynamic transmission were mainly perpendicular to and along the river in the foundation rock. Approximately 20 percent of the foundation rock beneath the auxiliary powerhouse was disturbed by the concrete around the spiral case and induced vibrations in the powerhouse’s lower floors. Vibration in the higher floors was derived from downstream rock, and the dynamic transmission effect had a clear advantage along the horizontal direction.

  12. Marijuana use among US tobacco users: Findings from wave 1 of the population assessment of tobacco health (PATH) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, David R; Myers, Mark G; Pulvers, Kim; Noble, Madison; Brikmanis, Kristin; Doran, Neal

    2018-05-01

    With an increase in marijuana use among adults in the United States (US), understanding the potential impact of marijuana use on tobacco use and associated behavioral and health consequences, including respiratory conditions, is necessary. Survey responses from Wave 1 of the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study were used to assess tobacco use and marijuana use among non-current tobacco users (n = 17,952) and current established tobacco-users classified as: cigarette only users (n = 8689), e-cigarette only users (n = 437), cigar only (traditional, cigarillo, or filtered) users (n = 706), hookah only users (n = 461), smokeless tobacco only users (n = 971), cigarette + e-cigarette users (n = 709), and users of multiple tobacco products (n = 2314). When compared to non-current tobacco users, each tobacco user group except smokeless only users had higher odds (odds ratios ranging from 3.86-8.07) of reporting current marijuana use. Among current tobacco users, higher levels of tobacco dependence did not explain the relationship between tobacco use and marijuana use. Additionally, concurrent marijuana use was associated with lower odds of attempts to quit tobacco (OR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.79, 0.94, p users of tobacco and marijuana. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui

    2010-05-01

    In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0-1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain.

  14. Experimental and numerical study of the relation between flow paths and fate of a pesticide in a riparian wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidmose, Jacob; Dahl, Mette; Engesgaard, Peter; Nilsson, Bertel; Christensen, Britt S. B.; Andersen, Stine; Hoffmann, Carl Christian

    2010-05-01

    SummaryA field-scale pulse-injection experiment with the herbicide Isoproturon was conducted in a Danish riparian wetland. A non-reactive tracer (bromide) experiment was also carried out to characterize the physical transport system. Groundwater flow and reactive transport modelling was used to simulate flow paths, residence times, as well as bromide and Isoproturon distributions. The wetland can be characterized by two distinct riparian flow paths; one flow path discharges 2/3 of the incoming groundwater directly to the free water surface of the wetland near the foot of the hillslope with an average residence time of 205 days, and another flow path diffusively discharging the remaining 1/3 of the incoming groundwater to the stream with an average residence time of 425 days. The reactive transport simulations reveal that Isoproturon is retarded by a factor of 2-4, which is explained by the high organic content in the peat layer of the wetland. Isoproturon was found to be aerobically degraded with a half-life in the order of 12-80 days. Based on the quantification of flow paths, residence times and half-lives it is estimated that about 2/3 of the injected Isoproturon is removed in the wetland. Thus, close to 1/3 may find its way to the stream through overland flow. It is also possible that high concentrations of metabolites will reach the stream.

  15. Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel

    2014-09-01

    The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.

  16. Initial Career Paths and Inequality in Uruguay. An Analysis Based on the PISA-L Longitudinal Study 2003-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabaré Fernández

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to identify and explain the initial career paths of young Uruguayans. It emphasizes three elements: labour protection, timing and qualifications in the context of the new uncertainty generated by globalization and the role of institutional filters provided by the employment and education systems. We use PISA 2003 -2012 longitudinal project data. An optimal solution of seven clusters reveals a medium level of heterogeneity in the transition. The multinomial regression on social class, gender and human capital reports modest but significant marginal effects for the last two. It is evident the reproduction of gender inequality in this "dense period", particularly affecting women with children. Human capital has also a clear protective effect towards vulnerable paths, but does not generate advantages to follow paths of rising job skills.

  17. An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

    2013-01-01

    Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html. PMID:23934896

  18. Studies on the History of Special Education in Italy: State of the Art and Paths for Future Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cristina Morandini

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The history of special education in Italy is a highly recent field of study. Prior to this, the theme had only been treated in a small number of publications that were limited in scope, primarily hagiografic and journalistic in style, and whose authors themselves worked in special education. In 1993, the article by Roberto Sani, devoted to Severino Fabriani, educator of female deaf mutes in Restoration Modena, marked the beginning of a history of special education that was researched using an interdisciplinary approach and situated within the broader framework of social and political history, and the history of institutions and cultural processes. Following in the line of enquiry into the history of special education inaugurated by Sani, further studies have been published since the beginning of the new millennium, by both established historians of education and young scholars joining the field. Some of these authors have maintained a focus on the world of education for the deaf; others have extended this model of interpretation to related field (educational institutions for children affected by rickets and by blindness. What avenues of research remain open to those wishing to pursue the history of special education? Numerous are the aspects still awaiting systematic investigation. It might therefore be to investigate the educational models and school programs offered over time for persons with disabilities affecting more than one sense (e.g., those who are both deaf and blind. How to reference this article Morandini, M. C. (2016. Studies on the History of Special Education in Italy: State of the Art and Paths for Future Research. Espacio, Tiempo y Educación, 3(1, 235-247. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.14516/ete.2016.003.001.12

  19. Relationship between inpatient satisfaction and nurse absenteeism: an exploratory study using WHO-PATH performance indicators in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moret, Leila; Anthoine, Emmanuelle; Paillé, Cécile; Tricaud-Vialle, Sophie; Gerbaud, Laurent; Giraud-Roufast, Alexandra; Michel, Philippe; Lombrail, Pierre

    2012-01-31

    Indicators describing results of care are widely explored in term of patient satisfaction (PS). Among factors explaining PS, human resources indicators have been studied in terms of burnout or job satisfaction among healthcare professionals. No research work has set out to explore the effect of absenteeism on PS scores. The objective of this study was to explore interaction between rate of absenteeism among nurses and PS results. France has taken part in a project named PATH (Performance Assessment Tool for Hospitals) of the World Health Organization, aiming to develop a tool for the assessment of hospital performance. In the first semester 2008, 25 volunteering short-stay hospitals (teaching, general and private) provide complete data on nurse short-absenteeism (periods of up to 7 consecutive days of sick leave) and on PS (a cross-sectional postal survey using a standardized validated French-language scale EQS-H exploring "quality of medical information" (MI) and "relationships with staff and daily routine" (RS)). A multi-level model was used to take into account of the hierarchical nature of the data. Two thousand and sixty-five patients responded to the satisfaction questionnaire (participation rate: 40.9%). The mean age of respondents was 58 yrs (± 19), 41% were men. The mean duration of hospitalisation was 7.5 days (± 11.1). The mean absenteeism rate for nurses was 0.24% (± 0.14).All the PS scores were significantly and negatively correlated with rate of short-absenteeism among nurses (MI score: ρ = -0.55, p absenteeism among nurses and PS scores (MI: p = 0.027; RS: p = 0.017). Results obtained in this study show that short-term absenteeism among nurses seems to be significantly and negatively correlated with PS. Our findings are an invitation to deepen our understanding of the impact of human resources on PS and to develop more specific projects.

  20. Relationship between inpatient satisfaction and nurse absenteeism: an exploratory study using WHO-PATH performance indicators in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Indicators describing results of care are widely explored in term of patient satisfaction (PS). Among factors explaining PS, human resources indicators have been studied in terms of burnout or job satisfaction among healthcare professionals. No research work has set out to explore the effect of absenteeism on PS scores. The objective of this study was to explore interaction between rate of absenteeism among nurses and PS results. Methods France has taken part in a project named PATH (Performance Assessment Tool for Hospitals) of the World Health Organization, aiming to develop a tool for the assessment of hospital performance. In the first semester 2008, 25 volunteering short-stay hospitals (teaching, general and private) provide complete data on nurse short-absenteeism (periods of up to 7 consecutive days of sick leave) and on PS (a cross-sectional postal survey using a standardized validated French-language scale EQS-H exploring "quality of medical information" (MI) and "relationships with staff and daily routine" (RS)). A multi-level model was used to take into account of the hierarchical nature of the data. Results Two thousand and sixty-five patients responded to the satisfaction questionnaire (participation rate: 40.9%). The mean age of respondents was 58 yrs (± 19), 41% were men. The mean duration of hospitalisation was 7.5 days (± 11.1). The mean absenteeism rate for nurses was 0.24% (± 0.14). All the PS scores were significantly and negatively correlated with rate of short-absenteeism among nurses (MI score: ρ = -0.55, p absenteeism among nurses and PS scores (MI: p = 0.027; RS: p = 0.017). Conclusion Results obtained in this study show that short-term absenteeism among nurses seems to be significantly and negatively correlated with PS. Our findings are an invitation to deepen our understanding of the impact of human resources on PS and to develop more specific projects. PMID:22293709

  1. Teaching Strategies for Specialized Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teaching Music, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Provides a strategy, from the book "Strategies for Teaching Specialized Ensembles," that addresses Standard 9A of the National Standards for Music Education. Explains that students will identify and describe the musical and historical characteristics of the classical era in music they perform and in audio examples. (CMK)

  2. Spectral Diagonal Ensemble Kalman Filters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kasanický, Ivan; Mandel, Jan; Vejmelka, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 4 (2015), s. 485-497 ISSN 1023-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Grant - others:NSF(US) DMS-1216481 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data assimilation * ensemble Kalman filter * spectral representation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.321, year: 2015

  3. Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Marquardt algorithm by varying conditions such as inputs, hidden neurons, initialization, training sets and random Gaussian noise injection to ... Several such ensembles formed the population which was evolved to generate the fittest ensemble.

  4. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  5. Localization of atomic ensembles via superfluorescence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macovei, Mihai; Evers, Joerg; Keitel, Christoph H.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

    2007-01-01

    The subwavelength localization of an ensemble of atoms concentrated to a small volume in space is investigated. The localization relies on the interaction of the ensemble with a standing wave laser field. The light scattered in the interaction of the standing wave field and the atom ensemble depends on the position of the ensemble relative to the standing wave nodes. This relation can be described by a fluorescence intensity profile, which depends on the standing wave field parameters and the ensemble properties and which is modified due to collective effects in the ensemble of nearby particles. We demonstrate that the intensity profile can be tailored to suit different localization setups. Finally, we apply these results to two localization schemes. First, we show how to localize an ensemble fixed at a certain position in the standing wave field. Second, we discuss localization of an ensemble passing through the standing wave field

  6. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

  7. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  8. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  9. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Wei Huang

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

  10. Flavored Tobacco Product Use in Youth and Adults: Findings From the First Wave of the PATH Study (2013-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villanti, Andrea C; Johnson, Amanda L; Ambrose, Bridget K; Cummings, K Michael; Stanton, Cassandra A; Rose, Shyanika W; Feirman, Shari P; Tworek, Cindy; Glasser, Allison M; Pearson, Jennifer L; Cohn, Amy M; Conway, Kevin P; Niaura, Raymond S; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew

    2017-08-01

    The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act banned characterizing flavors other than menthol in cigarettes but did not restrict their use in other forms of tobacco (e.g., smokeless, cigars, hookah, e-cigarettes). A cross-sectional analysis of Wave 1 data from 45,971 U.S. adults and youth, aged ≥12 years in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study collected in 2013-2014, was conducted in 2016. This study examined (1) the prevalence and reasons for use of flavored tobacco products; (2) the proportion of ever tobacco users reporting that their first product was flavored; and (3) correlates of current flavored tobacco product use. Current flavored (including menthol) tobacco product use was highest in youth (80%, aged 12-17 years); and young adult tobacco users (73%, aged 18-24 years); and lowest in older adult tobacco users aged ≥65 years (29%). Flavor was a primary reason for using a given tobacco product, particularly among youth. Eighty-one percent of youth and 86% of young adult ever tobacco users reported that their first product was flavored versus 54% of adults aged ≥25 years. In multivariable models, reporting that one's first tobacco product was flavored was associated with a 13% higher prevalence of current tobacco use among youth ever tobacco users and a 32% higher prevalence of current tobacco use among adult ever users. These results add to the evidence base that flavored tobacco products may attract young users and serve as starter products to regular tobacco use. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  11. An alternative path integral for quantum gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Chethan; Kumar, K.V. Pavan; Raju, Avinash [Center for High Energy Physics, Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore 560012 (India)

    2016-10-10

    We define a (semi-classical) path integral for gravity with Neumann boundary conditions in D dimensions, and show how to relate this new partition function to the usual picture of Euclidean quantum gravity. We also write down the action in ADM Hamiltonian formulation and use it to reproduce the entropy of black holes and cosmological horizons. A comparison between the (background-subtracted) covariant and Hamiltonian ways of semi-classically evaluating this path integral in flat space reproduces the generalized Smarr formula and the first law. This “Neumann ensemble” perspective on gravitational thermodynamics is parallel to the canonical (Dirichlet) ensemble of Gibbons-Hawking and the microcanonical approach of Brown-York.

  12. Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Daniel; Mearns, Linda O.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold

    2016-01-01

    Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

  13. Hamiltonian path integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prokhorov, L.V.

    1982-01-01

    Problems related to consideration of operator nonpermutability in Hamiltonian path integral (HPI) are considered in the review. Integrals are investigated using trajectories in configuration space (nonrelativistic quantum mechanics). Problems related to trajectory integrals in HPI phase space are discussed: the problem of operator nonpermutability consideration (extra terms problem) and corresponding equivalence rules; ambiguity of HPI usual recording; transition to curvilinear coordinates. Problem of quantization of dynamical systems with couplings has been studied. As in the case of canonical transformations, quantization of the systems with couplings of the first kind requires the consideration of extra terms

  14. Path integration in conical space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inomata, Akira; Junker, Georg

    2012-01-01

    Quantum mechanics in conical space is studied by the path integral method. It is shown that the curvature effect gives rise to an effective potential in the radial path integral. It is further shown that the radial path integral in conical space can be reduced to a form identical with that in flat space when the discrete angular momentum of each partial wave is replaced by a specific non-integral angular momentum. The effective potential is found proportional to the squared mean curvature of the conical surface embedded in Euclidean space. The path integral calculation is compatible with the Schrödinger equation modified with the Gaussian and the mean curvature. -- Highlights: ► We study quantum mechanics on a cone by the path integral approach. ► The path integral depends only on the metric and the curvature effect is built in. ► The approach is consistent with the Schrödinger equation modified by an effective potential. ► The effective potential is found to be of the “Jensen–Koppe” and “da Costa” type.

  15. MetaPath: An Electronic Knowledge Base for Collating, Exchanging and Analyzing Case Studies of Xenobiotic Metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new MetaPath information system was developed through a collaborative effort between the Laboratory of Mathematical Chemistry (Bourgas, Bulgaria), EPA’s Office of Research and Development (NHEERL, MED, Duluth, MN and NERL, ERD, Athens, GA), and EPA’s Office of Chemical Safety a...

  16. Shocking Path of Least Resistance Shines Light on Subsurface by Revealing the Paths of Water and the Presence of Faults: Stacked EM Case Studies over Barite Hills Superfund Site in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haggar, K. S.; Nelson, H. R., Jr.; Berent, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Barite Hills/Nevada Gold Fields mines are in Late Proterozoic and early Paleozoic rocks of the gold and iron sulfides rich Carolina slate belt. The mines were active from 1989 to1995. EPA and USGS site investigations in 2003 resulted in the declaration of the waste pit areas as a superfund site. The USGS and private consulting firms have evaluated subsurface water flow paths, faults & other groundwater-related features at this superfund site utilizing 2-D conductivity & 3-D electromagnetic (EM) surveys. The USGS employed conductivity to generate instantaneous 2-D profiles to evaluate shallow groundwater patterns. Porous regolith sediments, contaminated water & mine debris have high conductivity whereas bedrock is identified by its characteristic low conductivity readings. Consulting contractors integrated EM technology, magnetic & shallow well data to generate 3-D images of groundwater flow paths at given depths across the superfund site. In so doing several previously undetected faults were identified. Lighting strike data was integrated with the previously evaluated electrical and EM data to determine whether this form of natural-sourced EM data could complement and supplement the more traditional geophysical data described above. Several lightning attributes derived from 3-D lightning volumes were found to correlate to various features identified in the previous geophysical studies. Specifically, the attributes Apparent Resistivity, Apparent Permittivity, Peak Current & Tidal Gravity provided the deepest structural geological framework & provided insights into rock properties & earth tides. Most significantly, Peak Current showed remarkable coincidence with the preferred groundwater flow map identified by one of the contractors utilizing EM technology. This study demonstrates the utility of robust integrated EM technology applications for projects focused on hydrology, geohazards to dams, levees, and structures, as well as mineral and hydrocarbon exploration.

  17. Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...

  18. Association Between Receptivity to Tobacco Advertising and Progression to Tobacco Use in Youth and Young Adults in the PATH Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, John P; Sargent, James D; Portnoy, David B; White, Martha; Noble, Madison; Kealey, Sheila; Borek, Nicolette; Carusi, Charles; Choi, Kelvin; Green, Victoria R; Kaufman, Annette R; Leas, Eric; Lewis, M Jane; Margolis, Katherine A; Messer, Karen; Shi, Yuyan; Silveira, Marushka L; Snyder, Kimberly; Stanton, Cassandra A; Tanski, Susanne E; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Trinidad, Dennis; Hyland, Andrew

    2018-03-26

    Cigarette marketing contributes to initiation of cigarette smoking among young people, which has led to restrictions on use of cigarette advertising. However, little is known about other tobacco advertising and progression to tobacco use in youth and young adults. To investigate whether receptivity to tobacco advertising among youth and young adults is associated with progression (being a susceptible never user or ever user) to use of the product advertised, as well as conventional cigarette smoking. The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study at wave 1 (2013-2014) and 1-year follow-up at wave 2 (2014-2015) was conducted in a US population-based sample of never tobacco users aged 12 to 24 years from wave 1 of the PATH Study (N = 10 989). Household interviews using audio computer-assisted self-interviews were conducted. Advertising for conventional cigarettes, electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), cigars, and smokeless tobacco products at wave 1. Progression to susceptibility or ever tobacco use at 1-year follow-up in wave 2. Of the 10 989 participants (5410 male [weighted percentage, 48.3%]; 5579 female [weighted percentage, 51.7%]), receptivity to any tobacco advertising at wave 1 was high for those aged 12 to 14 years (44.0%; 95% confidence limit [CL], 42.6%-45.4%) but highest for those aged 18 to 21 years (68.7%; 95% CL, 64.9%-72.2%). e-Cigarette advertising had the highest receptivity among all age groups. For those aged 12 to 17 years, susceptibility to use a product at wave 1 was significantly associated with product use at wave 2 for conventional cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco products. Among committed never users aged 12 to 17 years at wave 1, any receptivity was associated with progression toward use of the product at wave 2 (conventional cigarettes: adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.43; 95% CL, 1.23-1.65; e-cigarettes: AOR, 1.62; 95% CL, 1.41-1.85; cigars: AOR, 2.01; 95% CL, 1.62-2.49; and smokeless (males only

  19. The Safety and Feasibility of Image-Guided BrainPath-Mediated Transsulcul Hematoma Evacuation: A Multicenter Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labib, Mohamed A; Shah, Mitesh; Kassam, Amin B; Young, Ronald; Zucker, Lloyd; Maioriello, Anthony; Britz, Gavin; Agbi, Charles; Day, J D; Gallia, Gary; Kerr, Robert; Pradilla, Gustavo; Rovin, Richard; Kulwin, Charles; Bailes, Julian

    2017-04-01

    Subcortical injury resulting from conventional surgical management of intracranial hemorrhage may counteract the potential benefits of hematoma evacuation. To evaluate the safety and potential benefits of a novel, minimally invasive approach for clot evacuation in a multicenter study. The integrated approach incorporates 5 competencies: (1) image interpretation and trajectory planning, (2) dynamic navigation, (3) atraumatic access system (BrainPath, NICO Corp, Indianapolis, Indiana), (4) extracorporeal optics, and (5) automated atraumatic resection. Twelve neurosurgeons from 11 centers were trained to use this approach through a continuing medical education-accredited course. Demographical, clinical, and radiological data of patients treated over 2 years were analyzed retrospectively. Thirty-nine consecutive patients were identified. The median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score at presentation was 10 (range, 5-15). The thalamus/basal ganglion regions were involved in 46% of the cases. The median hematoma volume and depth were 36 mL (interquartile range [IQR], 27-65 mL) and 1.4 cm (IQR, 0.3-2.9 cm), respectively. The median time from ictus to surgery was 24.5 hours (IQR, 16-66 hours). The degree of hematoma evacuation was ≥90%, 75% to 89%, and 50% to 74% in 72%, 23%, and 5.0% of the patients, respectively. The median GCS score at discharge was 14 (range, 8-15). The improvement in GCS score was statistically significant ( P < .001). Modified Rankin Scale data were available for 35 patients. Fifty-two percent of those patients had a modified Rankin Scale score of ≤2. There were no mortalities. The approach was safely performed in all patients with a relatively high rate of clot evacuation and functional independence. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  20. Antimicrobial susceptibility monitoring of respiratory tract pathogens isolated from diseased cattle and pigs across Europe: the VetPath study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Anno; Thomas, Valérie; Simjee, Shabbir; Moyaert, Hilde; El Garch, Farid; Maher, Kirsty; Morrissey, Ian; Butty, Pascal; Klein, Ulrich; Marion, Hervé; Rigaut, Delphine; Vallé, Michel

    2014-08-06

    VetPath is an ongoing pan-European antibiotic susceptibility monitoring programme collecting pathogens from diseased antimicrobial non-treated cattle, pigs and poultry. In the current study, 1001 isolates from cattle and pig respiratory tract infections were tested for their antimicrobial susceptibilities. Non-replicate lung samples or nasopharyngeal/nasal swabs were collected from animals with acute clinical signs in 11 countries during 2002-2006. Pasteurella multocida and Mannheimia haemolytica from cattle and P. multocida, Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae and Streptococcus suis from pigs were isolated by standard methods. S. suis was also isolated from meningitis cases. MICs of 16 antibiotics were assessed centrally by broth microdilution following CLSI recommendations. Results were interpreted using CLSI breakpoints where available. P. multocida (231) and M. haemolytica (138) isolates were all susceptible to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, ceftiofur, enrofloxacin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. Resistance to florfenicol and spectinomycin was 0.4% and 3.5% in P. multocida, respectively, and absent in M. haemolytica isolates. Tetracycline resistance was 5.7% and 14.6% for P. multocida and M. haemolytica. In pigs, 230 P. multocida, 220 A. pleuropneumoniae and 182 S. suis isolates were recovered. Resistance to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, ceftiofur, enrofloxacin, florfenicol, tiamulin and tilmicosin was absent or <1%. Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole resistance was 3-6% and tetracycline resistance varied from 14.7% in A. pleuropneumoniae to 81.8% in S. suis. In conclusion, low resistance to antibiotics with defined clinical breakpoints, except for tetracycline, was observed among the major respiratory tract pathogens recovered from cattle and pigs. Since for approximately half of the antibiotics in this panel no CLSI-defined breakpoints were available, setting of the missing veterinary breakpoints is important. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Formal language constrained path problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, C.; Jacob, R.; Marathe, M.

    1997-07-08

    In many path finding problems arising in practice, certain patterns of edge/vertex labels in the labeled graph being traversed are allowed/preferred, while others are disallowed. Motivated by such applications as intermodal transportation planning, the authors investigate the complexity of finding feasible paths in a labeled network, where the mode choice for each traveler is specified by a formal language. The main contributions of this paper include the following: (1) the authors show that the problem of finding a shortest path between a source and destination for a traveler whose mode choice is specified as a context free language is solvable efficiently in polynomial time, when the mode choice is specified as a regular language they provide algorithms with improved space and time bounds; (2) in contrast, they show that the problem of finding simple paths between a source and a given destination is NP-hard, even when restricted to very simple regular expressions and/or very simple graphs; (3) for the class of treewidth bounded graphs, they show that (i) the problem of finding a regular language constrained simple path between source and a destination is solvable in polynomial time and (ii) the extension to finding context free language constrained simple paths is NP-complete. Several extensions of these results are presented in the context of finding shortest paths with additional constraints. These results significantly extend the results in [MW95]. As a corollary of the results, they obtain a polynomial time algorithm for the BEST k-SIMILAR PATH problem studied in [SJB97]. The previous best algorithm was given by [SJB97] and takes exponential time in the worst case.

  2. Conservation of Mass and Preservation of Positivity with Ensemble-Type Kalman Filter Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Tijana; Mclaughlin, Dennis; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the incorporation of constraints to enforce physically based conservation laws in the ensemble Kalman filter. In particular, constraints are used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In certain situations filtering algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) yield updated ensembles that conserve mass but are negative, even though the actual states must be nonnegative. In such situations if negative values are set to zero, or a log transform is introduced, the total mass will not be conserved. In this study, mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate non-negativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. In two examples, an update that includes a non-negativity constraint is able to properly describe the transport of a sharp feature (e.g., a triangle or cone). A number of implementation questions still need to be addressed, particularly the need to develop a computationally efficient quadratic programming update for large ensemble.

  3. World nuclear energy paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connolly, T.J.; Hansen, U.; Jaek, W.; Beckurts, K.H.

    1979-01-01

    In examing the world nuclear energy paths, the following assumptions were adopted: the world economy will grow somewhat more slowly than in the past, leading to reductions in electricity demand growth rates; national and international political impediments to the deployment of nuclear power will gradually disappear over the next few years; further development of nuclear power will proceed steadily, without serious interruption but with realistic lead times for the introduction of advanced technologies. Given these assumptions, this paper attempts a study of possible world nuclear energy developments, disaggregated on a regional and national basis. The scenario technique was used and a few alternative fuel-cycle scenarios were developed. Each is an internally consistent model of technically and economically feasible paths to the further development of nuclear power in an aggregate of individual countries and regions of the world. The main purpose of this modeling exercise was to gain some insight into the probable international locations of reactors and other nuclear facilities, the future requirements for uranium and for fuel-cycle services, and the problems of spent-fuel storage and waste management. The study also presents an assessment of the role that nuclear power might actually play in meeting future world energy demand

  4. Relationship between inpatient satisfaction and nurse absenteeism: an exploratory study using WHO-PATH performance indicators in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moret Leila

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Indicators describing results of care are widely explored in term of patient satisfaction (PS. Among factors explaining PS, human resources indicators have been studied in terms of burnout or job satisfaction among healthcare professionals. No research work has set out to explore the effect of absenteeism on PS scores. The objective of this study was to explore interaction between rate of absenteeism among nurses and PS results. Methods France has taken part in a project named PATH (Performance Assessment Tool for Hospitals of the World Health Organization, aiming to develop a tool for the assessment of hospital performance. In the first semester 2008, 25 volunteering short-stay hospitals (teaching, general and private provide complete data on nurse short-absenteeism (periods of up to 7 consecutive days of sick leave and on PS (a cross-sectional postal survey using a standardized validated French-language scale EQS-H exploring "quality of medical information" (MI and "relationships with staff and daily routine" (RS. A multi-level model was used to take into account of the hierarchical nature of the data. Results Two thousand and sixty-five patients responded to the satisfaction questionnaire (participation rate: 40.9%. The mean age of respondents was 58 yrs (± 19, 41% were men. The mean duration of hospitalisation was 7.5 days (± 11.1. The mean absenteeism rate for nurses was 0.24% (± 0.14. All the PS scores were significantly and negatively correlated with rate of short-absenteeism among nurses (MI score: ρ = -0.55, p ρ = -0.47, p = 0.02. The mixed model found a significant relationship between rate of absenteeism among nurses and PS scores (MI: p = 0.027; RS: p = 0.017. Conclusion Results obtained in this study show that short-term absenteeism among nurses seems to be significantly and negatively correlated with PS. Our findings are an invitation to deepen our understanding of the impact of human resources on PS and to

  5. Shallow cumuli ensemble statistics for development of a stochastic parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakradzija, Mirjana; Seifert, Axel; Heus, Thijs

    2014-05-01

    According to a conventional deterministic approach to the parameterization of moist convection in numerical atmospheric models, a given large scale forcing produces an unique response from the unresolved convective processes. This representation leaves out the small-scale variability of convection, as it is known from the empirical studies of deep and shallow convective cloud ensembles, there is a whole distribution of sub-grid states corresponding to the given large scale forcing. Moreover, this distribution gets broader with the increasing model resolution. This behavior is also consistent with our theoretical understanding of a coarse-grained nonlinear system. We propose an approach to represent the variability of the unresolved shallow-convective states, including the dependence of the sub-grid states distribution spread and shape on the model horizontal resolution. Starting from the Gibbs canonical ensemble theory, Craig and Cohen (2006) developed a theory for the fluctuations in a deep convective ensemble. The micro-states of a deep convective cloud ensemble are characterized by the cloud-base mass flux, which, according to the theory, is exponentially distributed (Boltzmann distribution). Following their work, we study the shallow cumulus ensemble statistics and the distribution of the cloud-base mass flux. We employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES) and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by a conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud base level, to retrieve the information about the individual cloud life cycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole. In the case of shallow cumulus cloud ensemble, the distribution of micro-states is a generalized exponential distribution. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate the shallow convective cloud ensemble and to test the convective ensemble theory. Stochastic model simulates a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a

  6. Sensitivity of CAM-Chem/DART MOPITT CO Assimilation Performance to the Choice of Ensemble System Configuration: A Case Study for Fires in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arellano, A. F., Jr.; Tang, W.

    2017-12-01

    Assimilating observational data of chemical constituents into a modeling system is a powerful approach in assessing changes in atmospheric composition and estimating associated emissions. However, the results of such chemical data assimilation (DA) experiments are largely subject to various key factors such as: a) a priori information, b) error specification and representation, and c) structural biases in the modeling system. Here we investigate the sensitivity of an ensemble-based data assimilation state and emission estimates to these key factors. We focus on investigating the assimilation performance of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/CAM-Chem with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) in representing biomass burning plumes in the Amazonia during the 2008 fire season. We conduct the following ensemble DA MOPITT CO experiments: 1) use of monthly-average NCAR's FINN surface fire emissionss, 2) use of daily FINN surface fire emissions, 3) use of daily FINN emissions with climatological injection heights, and 4) use of perturbed FINN emission parameters to represent not only the uncertainties in combustion activity but also in combustion efficiency. We show key diagnostics of assimilation performance for these experiments and verify with available ground-based and aircraft-based measurements.

  7. Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics ensemble method

    CERN Document Server

    Eu, Byung Chan

    1998-01-01

    In this monograph, nonequilibrium statistical mechanics is developed by means of ensemble methods on the basis of the Boltzmann equation, the generic Boltzmann equations for classical and quantum dilute gases, and a generalised Boltzmann equation for dense simple fluids The theories are developed in forms parallel with the equilibrium Gibbs ensemble theory in a way fully consistent with the laws of thermodynamics The generalised hydrodynamics equations are the integral part of the theory and describe the evolution of macroscopic processes in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics of systems far removed from equilibrium Audience This book will be of interest to researchers in the fields of statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, gas dynamics, fluid dynamics, rheology, irreversible thermodynamics and nonequilibrium phenomena

  8. Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

    1992-01-01

    Neural network ensembles are applied to handwritten digit recognition. The individual networks of the ensemble are combinations of sparse look-up tables (LUTs) with random receptive fields. It is shown that the consensus of a group of networks outperforms the best individual of the ensemble....... It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...... by optimizing the receptive fields. It is concluded that it is possible to improve performance significantly by introducing moderate-size ensembles; in particular, a 20-25% improvement has been found. The ensemble random LUTs, when trained on a medium-size database, reach a performance (without rejects) of 94...

  9. Path-dependent functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrapko, R.I.

    1985-01-01

    A uniform description of various path-dependent functions is presented with the help of expansion of the type of the Taylor series. So called ''path-integrals'' and ''path-tensor'' are introduced which are systems of many-component quantities whose values are defined for arbitrary paths in coordinated region of space in such a way that they contain a complete information on the path. These constructions are considered as elementary path-dependent functions and are used instead of power monomials in the usual Taylor series. Coefficients of such an expansion are interpreted as partial derivatives dependent on the order of the differentiations or else as nonstandard cavariant derivatives called two-point derivatives. Some examples of pathdependent functions are presented.Space curvature tensor is considered whose geometrica properties are determined by the (non-transitive) translator of parallel transport of a general type. Covariant operation leading to the ''extension'' of tensor fiels is pointed out

  10. Regional interdependency of precipitation indices across Denmark in two ensembles of high-resolution RCMs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2013-01-01

    all these methods is that the climate models are independent. This study addresses the validity of this assumption for two ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project based on the land cells covering Denmark....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... These are based on different statistical properties of a measure of climate model error. Additionally, a hierarchical cluster analysis is carried out. Regardless of the method used, the effective number of RCMs is smaller than the total number of RCMs. The estimated effective number of RCMs varies depending...

  11. Iterated Leavitt Path Algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazrat, R.

    2009-11-01

    Leavitt path algebras associate to directed graphs a Z-graded algebra and in their simplest form recover the Leavitt algebras L(1,k). In this note, we introduce iterated Leavitt path algebras associated to directed weighted graphs which have natural ± Z grading and in their simplest form recover the Leavitt algebras L(n,k). We also characterize Leavitt path algebras which are strongly graded. (author)

  12. Pulled Motzkin paths

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janse van Rensburg, E J, E-mail: rensburg@yorku.c [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3 (Canada)

    2010-08-20

    In this paper the models of pulled Dyck paths in Janse van Rensburg (2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 215001) are generalized to pulled Motzkin path models. The generating functions of pulled Motzkin paths are determined in terms of series over trinomial coefficients and the elastic response of a Motzkin path pulled at its endpoint (see Orlandini and Whittington (2004 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 37 5305-14)) is shown to be R(f) = 0 for forces pushing the endpoint toward the adsorbing line and R(f) = f(1 + 2cosh f))/(2sinh f) {yields} f as f {yields} {infinity}, for forces pulling the path away from the X-axis. In addition, the elastic response of a Motzkin path pulled at its midpoint is shown to be R(f) = 0 for forces pushing the midpoint toward the adsorbing line and R(f) = f(1 + 2cosh (f/2))/sinh (f/2) {yields} 2f as f {yields} {infinity}, for forces pulling the path away from the X-axis. Formal combinatorial identities arising from pulled Motzkin path models are also presented. These identities are the generalization of combinatorial identities obtained in directed paths models to their natural trinomial counterparts.

  13. Pulled Motzkin paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janse van Rensburg, E. J.

    2010-08-01

    In this paper the models of pulled Dyck paths in Janse van Rensburg (2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 215001) are generalized to pulled Motzkin path models. The generating functions of pulled Motzkin paths are determined in terms of series over trinomial coefficients and the elastic response of a Motzkin path pulled at its endpoint (see Orlandini and Whittington (2004 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 37 5305-14)) is shown to be R(f) = 0 for forces pushing the endpoint toward the adsorbing line and R(f) = f(1 + 2cosh f))/(2sinh f) → f as f → ∞, for forces pulling the path away from the X-axis. In addition, the elastic response of a Motzkin path pulled at its midpoint is shown to be R(f) = 0 for forces pushing the midpoint toward the adsorbing line and R(f) = f(1 + 2cosh (f/2))/sinh (f/2) → 2f as f → ∞, for forces pulling the path away from the X-axis. Formal combinatorial identities arising from pulled Motzkin path models are also presented. These identities are the generalization of combinatorial identities obtained in directed paths models to their natural trinomial counterparts.

  14. Pulled Motzkin paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janse van Rensburg, E J

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the models of pulled Dyck paths in Janse van Rensburg (2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 215001) are generalized to pulled Motzkin path models. The generating functions of pulled Motzkin paths are determined in terms of series over trinomial coefficients and the elastic response of a Motzkin path pulled at its endpoint (see Orlandini and Whittington (2004 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 37 5305-14)) is shown to be R(f) = 0 for forces pushing the endpoint toward the adsorbing line and R(f) = f(1 + 2cosh f))/(2sinh f) → f as f → ∞, for forces pulling the path away from the X-axis. In addition, the elastic response of a Motzkin path pulled at its midpoint is shown to be R(f) = 0 for forces pushing the midpoint toward the adsorbing line and R(f) = f(1 + 2cosh (f/2))/sinh (f/2) → 2f as f → ∞, for forces pulling the path away from the X-axis. Formal combinatorial identities arising from pulled Motzkin path models are also presented. These identities are the generalization of combinatorial identities obtained in directed paths models to their natural trinomial counterparts.

  15. The Prachanda Path and Oglaigh na hEireann: A Comparative Case Study of the Insurgencies in Nepal and Northern Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-22

    Prior to the 1980s, politicians aligned with the PIRA conducted an activity called “ abstentionism ,” which meant that they participated in elections... The Prachanda Path and Óglaigh na hÉireann: A Comparative Case Study of the Insurgencies in Nepal and Northern Ireland A Monograph by MAJOR...burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing

  16. Low-wave number analysis of observations and ensemble forecasts to develop metrics for the selection of most realistic members to study multi-scale interactions between the environment and the convective organization of hurricanes: Focus on Rapid Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chen, H.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Haddad, Z. S.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the product of complex multi-scale processes and interactions. The role of the environment has long been recognized. However, recent research has shown that convective-scale processes in the hurricane core might also play a crucial role in determining TCs intensity and size. Several studies have linked Rapid Intensification to the characteristics of the convective clouds (shallow versus deep), their organization (isolated versus wide-spread) and their location with respect to dynamical controls (the vertical shear, the radius of maximum wind). Yet a third set of controls signifies the interaction between the storm-scale and large-scale processes. Our goal is to use observations and models to advance the still-lacking understanding of these processes. Recently, hurricane models have improved significantly. However, deterministic forecasts have limitations due to the uncertainty in the representation of the physical processes and initial conditions. A crucial step forward is the use of high-resolution ensembles. We adopt the following approach: i) generate a high resolution ensemble forecast using HWRF; ii) produce synthetic data (e.g. brightness temperature) from the model fields for direct comparison to satellite observations; iii) develop metrics to allow us to sub-select the realistic members of the ensemble, based on objective measures of the similarity between observed and forecasted structures; iv) for these most-realistic members, determine the skill in forecasting TCs to provide"guidance on guidance"; v) use the members with the best predictive skill to untangle the complex multi-scale interactions. We will report on the first three goals of our research, using forecasts and observations of hurricane Edouard (2014), focusing on RI. We will focus on describing the metrics for the selection of the most appropriate ensemble members, based on applying low-wave number analysis (WNA - Hristova-Veleva et al., 2016) to the observed and

  17. Universal critical wrapping probabilities in the canonical ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Hu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Universal dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios and wrapping probabilities, play an important role in the study of critical phenomena. We study the finite-size scaling behavior of the wrapping probability for the Potts model in the random-cluster representation, under the constraint that the total number of occupied bonds is fixed, so that the canonical ensemble applies. We derive that, in the limit L→∞, the critical values of the wrapping probability are different from those of the unconstrained model, i.e. the model in the grand-canonical ensemble, but still universal, for systems with 2yt−d>0 where yt=1/ν is the thermal renormalization exponent and d is the spatial dimension. Similar modifications apply to other dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios. For systems with 2yt−d≤0, these quantities share same critical universal values in the two ensembles. It is also derived that new finite-size corrections are induced. These findings apply more generally to systems in the canonical ensemble, e.g. the dilute Potts model with a fixed total number of vacancies. Finally, we formulate an efficient cluster-type algorithm for the canonical ensemble, and confirm these predictions by extensive simulations.

  18. A New Method for Determining Structure Ensemble: Application to a RNA Binding Di-Domain Protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei; Zhang, Jingfeng; Fan, Jing-Song; Tria, Giancarlo; Grüber, Gerhard; Yang, Daiwen

    2016-05-10

    Structure ensemble determination is the basis of understanding the structure-function relationship of a multidomain protein with weak domain-domain interactions. Paramagnetic relaxation enhancement has been proven a powerful tool in the study of structure ensembles, but there exist a number of challenges such as spin-label flexibility, domain dynamics, and overfitting. Here we propose a new (to our knowledge) method to describe structure ensembles using a minimal number of conformers. In this method, individual domains are considered rigid; the position of each spin-label conformer and the structure of each protein conformer are defined by three and six orthogonal parameters, respectively. First, the spin-label ensemble is determined by optimizing the positions and populations of spin-label conformers against intradomain paramagnetic relaxation enhancements with a genetic algorithm. Subsequently, the protein structure ensemble is optimized using a more efficient genetic algorithm-based approach and an overfitting indicator, both of which were established in this work. The method was validated using a reference ensemble with a set of conformers whose populations and structures are known. This method was also applied to study the structure ensemble of the tandem di-domain of a poly (U) binding protein. The determined ensemble was supported by small-angle x-ray scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation data. The ensemble obtained suggests an induced fit mechanism for recognition of target RNA by the protein. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Pauci ex tanto numero: reducing redundancy in multi-model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.

    2013-02-01

    We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date no attempts in this direction are documented within the air quality (AQ) community, although the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared biases among models will determine a biased ensemble, making therefore essential the errors of the ensemble members to be independent so that bias can cancel out. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated) we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores, that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.

  20. Exploring diversity in ensemble classification: Applications in large area land cover mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Andrew; Boukir, Samia

    2017-07-01

    Ensemble classifiers, such as random forests, are now commonly applied in the field of remote sensing, and have been shown to perform better than single classifier systems, resulting in reduced generalisation error. Diversity across the members of ensemble classifiers is known to have a strong influence on classification performance - whereby classifier errors are uncorrelated and more uniformly distributed across ensemble members. The relationship between ensemble diversity and classification performance has not yet been fully explored in the fields of information science and machine learning and has never been examined in the field of remote sensing. This study is a novel exploration of ensemble diversity and its link to classification performance, applied to a multi-class canopy cover classification problem using random forests and multisource remote sensing and ancillary GIS data, across seven million hectares of diverse dry-sclerophyll dominated public forests in Victoria Australia. A particular emphasis is placed on analysing the relationship between ensemble diversity and ensemble margin - two key concepts in ensemble learning. The main novelty of our work is on boosting diversity by emphasizing the contribution of lower margin instances used in the learning process. Exploring the influence of tree pruning on diversity is also a new empirical analysis that contributes to a better understanding of ensemble performance. Results reveal insights into the trade-off between ensemble classification accuracy and diversity, and through the ensemble margin, demonstrate how inducing diversity by targeting lower margin training samples is a means of achieving better classifier performance for more difficult or rarer classes and reducing information redundancy in classification problems. Our findings inform strategies for collecting training data and designing and parameterising ensemble classifiers, such as random forests. This is particularly important in large area

  1. Multi-Dimensional Path Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    1998-01-01

    to create nested path structures. We present an SQL-like query language that is based on path expressions and we show how to use it to express multi-dimensional path queries that are suited for advanced data analysis in decision support environments like data warehousing environments......We present the path-relationship model that supports multi-dimensional data modeling and querying. A path-relationship database is composed of sets of paths and sets of relationships. A path is a sequence of related elements (atoms, paths, and sets of paths). A relationship is a binary path...

  2. Path Creation, Path Dependence and Breaking Away from the Path: Re-Examining the Case of Nokia

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jens; Hedman, Jonas; Tuunainen, Virpi Kristiina

    2016-01-01

    The explanation of how and why firms succeed or fail is a recurrent research challenge. This is particularly important in the context of technological innovations. We focus on the role of historical events and decisions in explaining such success and failure. Using a case study of Nokia, we develop and extend a multi-layer path dependence framework. We identify four layers of path dependence: technical, strategic and leadership, organizational, and external collaboration. We show how path dep...

  3. Genotypic Variability of the Components and their Effects on the Rice Yield: Correlation and Path Analysis Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharkhawat Hossain

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Twenty modern Boro rice varieties were evaluated with a view to find variability and genetic association for grain yield and yield components characters. Genotypic and Phenotypic correlation among these characters were computed. Both genotypic and phenotypic correlation coefficients were significant between plant height and number of effective tillers per plant followed by panicle length. There was a positive significant correlation between yield and number of effective tillers per plant followed by percent filled grain per panicle. Path coefficient showed that number of effective tiller per plant and plant height are the characters that contribute largely to grain yield.

  4. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  5. Hamiltonian path integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prokhorov, L.V.

    1982-01-01

    The properties of path integrals associated with the allowance for nonstandard terms reflecting the operator nature of the canonical variables are considered. Rules for treating such terms (''equivalence rules'') are formulated. Problems with a boundary, the behavior of path integrals under canonical transformations, and the problem of quantization of dynamical systems with constraints are considered in the framework of the method

  6. Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

    2014-12-01

    In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

  7. innovation path exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The world has entered the information age, all kinds of information technologies such as cloud technology, big data technology are in rapid development, and the “Internet plus” appeared. The main purpose of “Internet plus” is to provide an opportunity for the further development of the enterprise, the enterprise technology, business and other aspects of factors combine. For enterprises, grasp the “Internet plus” the impact of the market economy will undoubtedly pave the way for the future development of enterprises. This paper will be on the innovation path of the enterprise management “Internet plus” era tied you study, hope to be able to put forward some opinions and suggestions.

  8. The "Accafellows:" Exploring the Music Making and Culture of a Collegiate a Cappella Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparo, Stephen A.

    2013-01-01

    Despite the growth in number and popularity of collegiate a cappella ensembles in the USA over the past 20 years, few researchers have studied these self-governed, student-run, popular music ensembles. This ethnographic case study examined the music making and culture of the "Accafellows", an all-male a cappella group at a mid-western…

  9. Statistical ensembles in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blokhintsev, D.

    1976-01-01

    The interpretation of quantum mechanics presented in this paper is based on the concept of quantum ensembles. This concept differs essentially from the canonical one by that the interference of the observer into the state of a microscopic system is of no greater importance than in any other field of physics. Owing to this fact, the laws established by quantum mechanics are not of less objective character than the laws governing classical statistical mechanics. The paradoxical nature of some statements of quantum mechanics which result from the interpretation of the wave functions as the observer's notebook greatly stimulated the development of the idea presented. (Auth.)

  10. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  11. Effect of Glide Path Creating on Cyclic Fatigue Resistance of Reciproc and Reciproc Blue Nickel-titanium Files: A Laboratory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özyürek, Taha; Uslu, Gülşah; Yılmaz, Koray; Gündoğar, Mustafa

    2018-06-01

    The purpose of this article was to compare the cyclic fatigue resistance of Reciproc and Reciproc Blue files (VDW GmbH, Munich, Germany) that were used to prepare root canals of mandibular molar teeth with or without a glide path. Sixty Reciproc R25 and 60 Reciproc Blue R25 files were used. The Reciproc and Reciproc Blue groups were divided into 3 subgroups (ie, as received condition, used without a glide path, and used with a glide path). All the instruments were rotated in a stainless steel artificial canal with an inner diameter of 1.5 mm, a 60° angle of curvature, and a radius of curvature of 5 mm until fracture occurred. The number of cycle to fracture was calculated, and the length of the fractured segments was measured. The Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to statistically analyze the data using SPSS 21.0 software (IBM Corp, Armonk, NY) at a 5% significance level. The cyclic fatigue resistance of as received condition Reciproc Blue files was found to be higher than as received condition Reciproc files (P  .05). There was no statistically significant difference in the mean length of the fractured fragments of the instruments (P > .05). Within the limitations of this in vitro study, it was concluded that creating a glide path using ProGlider files had no effect on the cyclic fatigue resistance of RPC and RPC Blue files. Copyright © 2018 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A comparative study on full diagonalization of Hessian matrix and Gradient-only technique to trace out reaction path in doped noble gas clusters using stochastic optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biring, Shyamal Kumar; Chaudhury, Pinaki

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Estimation of critical points in Noble-gas clusters. ► Evaluation of first order saddle point or transition states. ► Construction of reaction path for structural change in clusters. ► Use of Monte-Carlo Simulated Annealing to study structural changes. - Abstract: This paper proposes Simulated Annealing based search to locate critical points in mixed noble gas clusters where Ne and Xe are individually doped in Ar-clusters. Using Lennard–Jones (LJ) atomic interaction we try to explore the search process of transformation through Minimum Energy Path (MEP) from one minimum energy geometry to another via first order saddle point on the potential energy surface of the clusters. Here we compare the results based on diagonalization of the full Hessian all through the search and quasi-gradient only technique to search saddle points and construction of reaction path (RP) for three sizes of doped Ar-clusters, (Ar) 19 Ne/Xe,(Ar) 24 Ne/Xe and (Ar) 29 Ne/Xe.

  13. Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

    2011-01-01

    The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

  14. Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P [Baskin School of Engineering, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Nanostructured Energy Conversion Technology and Research (NECTAR), Advanced Studies Laboratories, University of California Santa Cruz-NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)

    2010-09-03

    Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.

  15. Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P

    2010-01-01

    Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.

  16. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Likothanasis, Spiridon D.; Tsakalidis, Athanasios K.; Mavroudi, Seferina P.

    2014-01-01

    do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel

  17. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  18. An ensemble method for extracting adverse drug events from social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jing; Zhao, Songzheng; Zhang, Xiaodi

    2016-06-01

    Because adverse drug events (ADEs) are a serious health problem and a leading cause of death, it is of vital importance to identify them correctly and in a timely manner. With the development of Web 2.0, social media has become a large data source for information on ADEs. The objective of this study is to develop a relation extraction system that uses natural language processing techniques to effectively distinguish between ADEs and non-ADEs in informal text on social media. We develop a feature-based approach that utilizes various lexical, syntactic, and semantic features. Information-gain-based feature selection is performed to address high-dimensional features. Then, we evaluate the effectiveness of four well-known kernel-based approaches (i.e., subset tree kernel, tree kernel, shortest dependency path kernel, and all-paths graph kernel) and several ensembles that are generated by adopting different combination methods (i.e., majority voting, weighted averaging, and stacked generalization). All of the approaches are tested using three data sets: two health-related discussion forums and one general social networking site (i.e., Twitter). When investigating the contribution of each feature subset, the feature-based approach attains the best area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values, which are 78.6%, 72.2%, and 79.2% on the three data sets. When individual methods are used, we attain the best AUC values of 82.1%, 73.2%, and 77.0% using the subset tree kernel, shortest dependency path kernel, and feature-based approach on the three data sets, respectively. When using classifier ensembles, we achieve the best AUC values of 84.5%, 77.3%, and 84.5% on the three data sets, outperforming the baselines. Our experimental results indicate that ADE extraction from social media can benefit from feature selection. With respect to the effectiveness of different feature subsets, lexical features and semantic features can enhance the ADE extraction

  19. A molecular dynamics algorithm for simulation of field theories in the canonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kogut, J.B.; Sinclair, D.K.

    1986-01-01

    We add a single scalar degree of freedom (''demon'') to the microcanonical ensemble which converts its molecular dynamics into a simulation method for the canonical ensemble (euclidean path integral) of the underlying field theory. This generalization of the microcanonical molecular dynamics algorithm simulates the field theory at fixed coupling with a completely deterministic procedure. We discuss the finite size effects of the method, the equipartition theorem and ergodicity. The method is applied to the planar model in two dimensions and SU(3) lattice gauge theory with four species of light, dynamical quarks in four dimensions. The method is much less sensitive to its discrete time step than conventional Langevin equation simulations of the canonical ensemble. The method is a straightforward generalization of a procedure introduced by S. Nose for molecular physics. (orig.)

  20. Assessment of direct analgesic effect of duloxetine for chronic low back pain: post hoc path analysis of double-blind, placebo-controlled studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enomoto H

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Hiroyuki Enomoto,1 Shinji Fujikoshi,2 Jumpei Funai,3 Nao Sasaki,4 Michael H Ossipov,5 Toshinaga Tsuji,6 Levent Alev,7 Takahiro Ushida8 1Medical Science, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Tokyo, 2Statistical Science, 3Science Communications, 4Medical Science, Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Kobe, Japan; 5Clinical Division, inVentiv Health, LLC, Blue Bell, PA, USA; 6Medical Affairs Department, Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Osaka, Japan; 7Medical Department, Lilly Turkey, Istanbul, Turkey; 8Multidisciplinary Pain Center, Aichi Medical University, Nagakute, Aichi, Japan Background: Comorbid depression and depressive symptoms are common in patients with chronic low back pain (CLBP. Duloxetine is clinically effective in major depressive disorder and several chronic pain states, including CLBP. The objective of this post hoc meta-analysis was to assess direct and indirect analgesic efficacy of duloxetine for patients with CLBP in previous clinical trials. Methods: Post hoc path analyses were conducted of 3 randomized, double-blind, clinical studies of patients receiving duloxetine or placebo for CLBP. The primary outcome measure for pain was the Brief Pain Inventory, average pain score. A secondary outcome measure, the Beck Depression Inventory-II, was used for depressive symptoms. The changes in score from baseline to endpoint were determined for each index. Path analyses were employed to calculate the proportion of analgesia that may be attributed to a direct effect of duloxetine on pain.Results: A total of 851 patients (400 duloxetine and 451 placebo were included in this analysis. Duloxetine significantly improved pain scores compared with placebo (p<0.001. It also significantly improved depressive scores compared with placebo (p=0.015. Path analyses showed that 91.1% of the analgesic effect of duloxetine could be attributed to a direct analgesic effect, and 8.9% to its antidepressant effect. Similar results were obtained when data were evaluated at weeks 4 and 7, and when

  1. On the structure of path-like trees

    OpenAIRE

    Muntaner Batle, Francesc Antoni; Rius Font, Miquel

    2007-01-01

    We study the structure of path-like trees. In order to do this, we introduce a set of trees that we call expandable trees. In this paper we also generalize the concept of path-like trees and we call such generalization generalized path-like trees. As in the case of path-like trees, generalized path-like trees, have very nice labeling properties.

  2. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  3. Breaking of ensembles of linear and nonlinear oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buts, V.A.

    2016-01-01

    Some results concerning the study of the dynamics of ensembles of linear and nonlinear oscillators are stated. It is shown that, in general, a stable ensemble of linear oscillator has a limited number of oscillators. This number has been defined for some simple models. It is shown that the features of the dynamics of linear oscillators can be used for conversion of the low-frequency energy oscillations into high frequency oscillations. The dynamics of coupled nonlinear oscillators in most cases is chaotic. For such a case, it is shown that the statistical characteristics (moments) of chaotic motion can significantly reduce potential barriers that keep the particles in the capture region

  4. Path integrals for arbitrary canonical transformations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.A.R. de.

    1980-01-01

    Some aspects of the path integral formulation of quantum mechanics are studied. This formalism is generalized to arbitrary canonical transformations, by means of an association between path integral probalility amplitudes and classical generators of transformations, analogous to the usual Hamiltonian time development phase space expression. Such association turns out to be equivalent to the Weyl quantization rule, and it is also shown that this formalism furnishes a path integral representation for a Lie algebra of a given set of classical generators. Some physical considerations about the path integral quantization procedure and about the relationship between classical and quantum dynamical structures are also discussed. (Author) [pt

  5. Path integration quantization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeWitt-Morette, C.

    1983-01-01

    Much is expected of path integration as a quantization procedure. Much more is possible if one recognizes that path integration is at the crossroad of stochastic and differential calculus and uses the full power of both stochastic and differential calculus in setting up and computing path integrals. In contrast to differential calculus, stochastic calculus has only comparatively recently become an instrument of thought. It has nevertheless already been used in a variety of challenging problems, for instance in the quantization problem. The author presents some applications of the stochastic scheme. (Auth.)

  6. Two dimensional simplicial paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piso, M.I.

    1994-07-01

    Paths on the R 3 real Euclidean manifold are defined as 2-dimensional simplicial strips which are orbits of the action of a discrete one-parameter group. It is proven that there exists at least one embedding of R 3 in the free Z-module generated by S 2 (x 0 ). The speed is defined as the simplicial derivative of the path. If mass is attached to the simplex, the free Lagrangian is proportional to the width of the path. In the continuum limit, the relativistic form of the Lagrangian is recovered. (author). 7 refs

  7. Zero-Slack, Noncritical Paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Jacob V., Jr.

    2017-01-01

    The critical path method/program evaluation and review technique method of project scheduling is based on the importance of managing a project's critical path(s). Although a critical path is the longest path through a network, its location in large projects is facilitated by the computation of activity slack. However, logical fallacies in…

  8. Registration of central paths and colonic polyps between supine and prone scans in computed tomography colonography: Pilot study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ping; Napel, Sandy; Acar, Burak; Paik, David S.; Jeffrey, R. Brooke Jr.; Beaulieu, Christopher F.

    2004-01-01

    Computed tomography colonography (CTC) is a minimally invasive method that allows the evaluation of the colon wall from CT sections of the abdomen/pelvis. The primary goal of CTC is to detect colonic polyps, precursors to colorectal cancer. Because imperfect cleansing and distension can cause portions of the colon wall to be collapsed, covered with water, and/or covered with retained stool, patients are scanned in both prone and supine positions. We believe that both reading efficiency and computer aided detection (CAD) of CTC images can be improved by accurate registration of data from the supine and prone positions. We developed a two-stage approach that first registers the colonic central paths using a heuristic and automated algorithm and then matches polyps or polyp candidates (CAD hits) by a statistical approach. We evaluated the registration algorithm on 24 patient cases. After path registration, the mean misalignment distance between prone and supine identical anatomic landmarks was reduced from 47.08 to 12.66 mm, a 73% improvement. The polyp registration algorithm was specifically evaluated using eight patient cases for which radiologists identified polyps separately for both supine and prone data sets, and then manually registered corresponding pairs. The algorithm correctly matched 78% of these pairs without user input. The algorithm was also applied to the 30 highest-scoring CAD hits in the prone and supine scans and showed a success rate of 50% in automatically registering corresponding polyp pairs. Finally, we computed the average number of CAD hits that need to be manually compared in order to find the correct matches among the top 30 CAD hits. With polyp registration, the average number of comparisons was 1.78 per polyp, as opposed to 4.28 comparisons without polyp registration

  9. Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi

    2012-01-01

    The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…

  10. The Effect of Ensemble Performance Quality on the Evaluation of Conducting Expressivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvey, Brian A.

    2011-01-01

    This study was designed to examine whether the presence of excellent or poor ensemble performances would influence the ratings assigned by ensemble members to conductors who demonstrated highly expressive conducting. Two conductors were videotaped conducting one of two excerpts from an arrangement of Frank Ticheli's "Loch Lomond." These videos…

  11. Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Bo

    2015-11-11

    We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

  12. Groebner Finite Path Algebras

    OpenAIRE

    Leamer, Micah J.

    2004-01-01

    Let K be a field and Q a finite directed multi-graph. In this paper I classify all path algebras KQ and admissible orders with the property that all of their finitely generated ideals have finite Groebner bases. MS

  13. Pauci ex tanto numero: reduce redundancy in multi-model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.

    2013-08-01

    We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date, no attempts in this direction have been documented within the air quality (AQ) community despite the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared, dependant biases among models do not cancel out but will instead determine a biased ensemble. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated), we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores; that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.

  14. Path planning in changeable environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuisen, D.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis addresses path planning in changeable environments. In contrast to traditional path planning that deals with static environments, in changeable environments objects are allowed to change their configurations over time. In many cases, path planning algorithms must facilitate quick

  15. Popular Music and the Instrumental Ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boespflug, George

    1999-01-01

    Discusses popular music, the role of the musical performer as a creator, and the styles of jazz and popular music. Describes the pop ensemble at the college level, focusing on improvisation, rehearsals, recording, and performance. Argues that pop ensembles be used in junior and senior high school. (CMK)

  16. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

  17. Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

    2004-01-01

    The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

  18. Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

  19. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  20. Constructing Support Vector Machine Ensembles for Cancer Classification Based on Proteomic Profiling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Mao; Xiao-Bo Zhou; Dao-Ying Pi; You-Xian Sun

    2005-01-01

    In this study, we present a constructive algorithm for training cooperative support vector machine ensembles (CSVMEs). CSVME combines ensemble architecture design with cooperative training for individual SVMs in ensembles. Unlike most previous studies on training ensembles, CSVME puts emphasis on both accuracy and collaboration among individual SVMs in an ensemble. A group of SVMs selected on the basis of recursive classifier elimination is used in CSVME, and the number of the individual SVMs selected to construct CSVME is determined by 10-fold cross-validation. This kind of SVME has been tested on two ovarian cancer datasets previously obtained by proteomic mass spectrometry. By combining several individual SVMs, the proposed method achieves better performance than the SVME of all base SVMs.

  1. Microcanonical ensemble and algebra of conserved generators for generalized quantum dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, S.L.; Horwitz, L.P.

    1996-01-01

    It has recently been shown, by application of statistical mechanical methods to determine the canonical ensemble governing the equilibrium distribution of operator initial values, that complex quantum field theory can emerge as a statistical approximation to an underlying generalized quantum dynamics. This result was obtained by an argument based on a Ward identity analogous to the equipartition theorem of classical statistical mechanics. We construct here a microcanonical ensemble which forms the basis of this canonical ensemble. This construction enables us to define the microcanonical entropy and free energy of the field configuration of the equilibrium distribution and to study the stability of the canonical ensemble. We also study the algebraic structure of the conserved generators from which the microcanonical and canonical ensembles are constructed, and the flows they induce on the phase space. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  2. Music Ensemble Participation: Personality Traits and Music Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrance, Tracy A.; Bugos, Jennifer A.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was two-fold: (1) to examine the relationship between personality type and ensemble choice and (2) to examine the differences in personality across age and music experience in young adults. Participants (N = 137; 68 instrumentalists, 69 vocalists) completed a demographic survey and the Big Five Personality Inventory.…

  3. Random walk loop soups and conformal loop ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Brug, T.; Camia, F.; Lis, M.

    2016-01-01

    The random walk loop soup is a Poissonian ensemble of lattice loops; it has been extensively studied because of its connections to the discrete Gaussian free field, but was originally introduced by Lawler and Trujillo Ferreras as a discrete version of the Brownian loop soup of Lawler and Werner, a

  4. Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles. V S Prasad∗ and C J .... In this study, impact of hybrid ..... of water between vapour, clouds and ice (Damrath et al. 2000). ... flooding – June 2013; Weather and Climate Extremes 4. 22–34.

  5. The National Solo and Ensemble Contest 1929-1937

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Brian D.

    2012-01-01

    This study is the first investigation of the nine-year history of the National Solo and Ensemble Contests, held in the United States in conjunction with the National School Band and Orchestra Contests of the late 1920s and early to mid-1930s. Primary sources used include letters from those involved with the planning of the contests, meeting…

  6. Establishment path and management innovation of mutually beneficial nonprofit organization (MBNPO: A study based on integrated marketing communications (IMC theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-yong Shin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - Research about the modern mutually beneficial nonprofit organizations (MBNPOs has great value because of the increasingly important role that the MBNPO plays in society. The establishment and management of MBNPOs are critical for its development. Design/methodology/approach - Integrated marketing communications (IMC theory is applied to the research on establishment and management innovation. The establishment of MBNPOs needs four sequential steps: identifying the target group, providing services to meet the demand of stakeholders, designing appropriate communication tactics and deploying proper organizational structure to accomplish efficient communication. Findings - Three types of approach enable traditional enterprises to transform into MBNPOs: product innovation, operational innovation and synergetic development. The application of IMC theory accomplishes management innovation of MBNPOs in three aspects: leading market-orientation specific to stakeholder-orientation, making management innovation systematic in MBNPOs and clarifying targets of management innovation in MBNPOs. Originality/value - This is one of the first examinations of establishment path and management innovation of MBNPO based on IMC theory.

  7. Tweet-based Target Market Classification Using Ensemble Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Adi Khairul Anshary

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Target market classification is aimed at focusing marketing activities on the right targets. Classification of target markets can be done through data mining and by utilizing data from social media, e.g. Twitter. The end result of data mining are learning models that can classify new data. Ensemble methods can improve the accuracy of the models and therefore provide better results. In this study, classification of target markets was conducted on a dataset of 3000 tweets in order to extract features. Classification models were constructed to manipulate the training data using two ensemble methods (bagging and boosting. To investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble methods, this study used the CART (classification and regression tree algorithm for comparison. Three categories of consumer goods (computers, mobile phones and cameras and three categories of sentiments (positive, negative and neutral were classified towards three target-market categories. Machine learning was performed using Weka 3.6.9. The results of the test data showed that the bagging method improved the accuracy of CART with 1.9% (to 85.20%. On the other hand, for sentiment classification, the ensemble methods were not successful in increasing the accuracy of CART. The results of this study may be taken into consideration by companies who approach their customers through social media, especially Twitter.

  8. Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2018-04-01

    Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

  9. 2 × 2 random matrix ensembles with reduced symmetry: from Hermitian to PT -symmetric matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Jiangbin; Wang Qinghai

    2012-01-01

    A possibly fruitful extension of conventional random matrix ensembles is proposed by imposing symmetry constraints on conventional Hermitian matrices or parity–time (PT)-symmetric matrices. To illustrate the main idea, we first study 2 × 2 complex Hermitian matrix ensembles with O(2)-invariant constraints, yielding novel level-spacing statistics such as singular distributions, the half-Gaussian distribution, distributions interpolating between the GOE (Gaussian orthogonal ensemble) distribution and half-Gaussian distributions, as well as the gapped-GOE distribution. Such a symmetry-reduction strategy is then used to explore 2 × 2 PT-symmetric matrix ensembles with real eigenvalues. In particular, PT-symmetric random matrix ensembles with U(2) invariance can be constructed, with the conventional complex Hermitian random matrix ensemble being a special case. In two examples of PT-symmetric random matrix ensembles, the level-spacing distributions are found to be the standard GUE (Gaussian unitary ensemble) statistics or the ‘truncated-GUE’ statistics. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’. (paper)

  10. Constructing Better Classifier Ensemble Based on Weighted Accuracy and Diversity Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Zeng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases.

  11. An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Anctil

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap.

    In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS, especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

  12. Jarzynski equality in the context of maximum path entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Diego; Davis, Sergio

    2017-06-01

    In the global framework of finding an axiomatic derivation of nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics from fundamental principles, such as the maximum path entropy - also known as Maximum Caliber principle -, this work proposes an alternative derivation of the well-known Jarzynski equality, a nonequilibrium identity of great importance today due to its applications to irreversible processes: biological systems (protein folding), mechanical systems, among others. This equality relates the free energy differences between two equilibrium thermodynamic states with the work performed when going between those states, through an average over a path ensemble. In this work the analysis of Jarzynski's equality will be performed using the formalism of inference over path space. This derivation highlights the wide generality of Jarzynski's original result, which could even be used in non-thermodynamical settings such as social systems, financial and ecological systems.

  13. Effects of single-gender mathematics classrooms on self-perception of mathematical ability and post secondary engineering paths: an Australian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, D.; Jacobs, B.

    2010-08-01

    This study focused on a population of female engineering students, probing the influences of their secondary school experience on their choice to pursue an engineering course of study at university. The motivating question is: Do unique opportunities exist in an all-female secondary school mathematics classroom, which impact a young woman's self-perception of her mathematics ability as well as promote a positive path towards an engineering-based university major? Using both qualitative and quantitative data collection instruments, this study examined a sample of Australian engineering students enrolled at the University of Technology, Sydney (UTS). Demographic statistics show that 40% of UTS' female engineering student population attended a single-gender secondary school, indicating a potential influence of school type (single-gender) on engineering enrolment patterns. Female students were primarily motivated to pursue a post secondary engineering path because of a self-belief that they are good at mathematics. In contrast, male students were more influenced by positive male role models of family members who are practising engineers. In measures of self- perception of mathematical skill and ability, female students from single-gender schools outscored their male engineering counterparts. Additionally, female students seem to benefit from verbal encouragement, contextualisation, same gender problem-solving groups and same gender classroom dynamics.

  14. A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniguchi, Kenji

    2018-04-01

    To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

  15. Nonlocal inhomogeneous broadening in plasmonic nanoparticle ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tserkezis, Christos; Maack, Johan Rosenkrantz; Liu, Z.

    Nonclassical effects are increasingly more relevant in plasmonics as modern nanofabrication techniques rapidly approach the extreme nanoscale limits, for which departing from classical electrodynamics becomes important. One of the largest-scale necessary corrections towards this direction...... is to abandon the local response approximation (LRA) and take the nonlocal response of the metal into account, typically through the simple hydrodynamic Drude model (HDM), which predicts a sizedependent deviation of plasmon modes from the quasistatic (QS) limit. While this behaviour has been explored for simple...... metallic nanoparticles (NPs) or NP dimers, the possibility of inhomogeneous resonance broadening due to size variation in a large NP collection and the resulting spectral overlap of modes (as depicted in Fig. 1), has been so far overlooked. Here we study theoretically the effect of nonlocality on ensemble...

  16. Dynamical Engineering of Interactions in Qudit Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soonwon; Yao, Norman Y.; Lukin, Mikhail D.

    2017-11-01

    We propose and analyze a method to engineer effective interactions in an ensemble of d -level systems (qudits) driven by global control fields. In particular, we present (i) a necessary and sufficient condition under which a given interaction can be decoupled, (ii) the existence of a universal sequence that decouples any (cancelable) interaction, and (iii) an efficient algorithm to engineer a target Hamiltonian from an initial Hamiltonian (if possible). We illustrate the potential of this method with two examples. Specifically, we present a 6-pulse sequence that decouples effective spin-1 dipolar interactions and demonstrate that a spin-1 Ising chain can be engineered to study transitions among three distinct symmetry protected topological phases. Our work enables new approaches for the realization of both many-body quantum memories and programmable analog quantum simulators using existing experimental platforms.

  17. Quivers of Bound Path Algebras and Bound Path Coalgebras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Intan Muchtadi

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available bras and coalgebras can be represented as quiver (directed graph, and from quiver we can construct algebras and coalgebras called path algebras and path coalgebras. In this paper we show that the quiver of a bound path coalgebra (resp. algebra is the dual quiver of its bound path algebra (resp. coalgebra.

  18. Precision bounds for gradient magnetometry with atomic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apellaniz, Iagoba; Urizar-Lanz, Iñigo; Zimborás, Zoltán; Hyllus, Philipp; Tóth, Géza

    2018-05-01

    We study gradient magnetometry with an ensemble of atoms with arbitrary spin. We calculate precision bounds for estimating the gradient of the magnetic field based on the quantum Fisher information. For quantum states that are invariant under homogeneous magnetic fields, we need to measure a single observable to estimate the gradient. On the other hand, for states that are sensitive to homogeneous fields, a simultaneous measurement is needed, as the homogeneous field must also be estimated. We prove that for the cases studied in this paper, such a measurement is feasible. We present a method to calculate precision bounds for gradient estimation with a chain of atoms or with two spatially separated atomic ensembles. We also consider a single atomic ensemble with an arbitrary density profile, where the atoms cannot be addressed individually, and which is a very relevant case for experiments. Our model can take into account even correlations between particle positions. While in most of the discussion we consider an ensemble of localized particles that are classical with respect to their spatial degree of freedom, we also discuss the case of gradient metrology with a single Bose-Einstein condensate.

  19. Multicomponent ensemble models to forecast induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király-Proag, E.; Gischig, V.; Zechar, J. D.; Wiemer, S.

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, human-induced seismicity has become a more and more relevant topic due to its economic and social implications. Several models and approaches have been developed to explain underlying physical processes or forecast induced seismicity. They range from simple statistical models to coupled numerical models incorporating complex physics. We advocate the need for forecast testing as currently the best method for ascertaining if models are capable to reasonably accounting for key physical governing processes—or not. Moreover, operational forecast models are of great interest to help on-site decision-making in projects entailing induced earthquakes. We previously introduced a standardized framework following the guidelines of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, the Induced Seismicity Test Bench, to test, validate, and rank induced seismicity models. In this study, we describe how to construct multicomponent ensemble models based on Bayesian weightings that deliver more accurate forecasts than individual models in the case of Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 enhanced geothermal stimulation projects. For this, we examine five calibrated variants of two significantly different model groups: (1) Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity based on the seismogenic index, simple modified Omori-law-type seismicity decay, and temporally weighted smoothed seismicity; (2) Hydraulics and Seismicity based on numerically modelled pore pressure evolution that triggers seismicity using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. We also demonstrate how the individual and ensemble models would perform as part of an operational Adaptive Traffic Light System. Investigating seismicity forecasts based on a range of potential injection scenarios, we use forecast periods of different durations to compute the occurrence probabilities of seismic events M ≥ 3. We show that in the case of the Basel 2006 geothermal stimulation the models forecast hazardous levels

  20. A path integral molecular dynamics study of the hyperfine coupling constants of the muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oba, Yuki; Kawatsu, Tsutomu; Tachikawa, Masanori, E-mail: tachi@yokohama-cu.ac.jp [Quantum Chemistry Division, Yokohama City University, Seto 22-2, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0027 (Japan)

    2016-08-14

    The on-the-fly ab initio density functional path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations, which can account for both the nuclear quantum effect and thermal effect, were carried out to evaluate the structures and “reduced” isotropic hyperfine coupling constants (HFCCs) for muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals (2-muoxy-2-propyl and 2-hydoxy-2-propyl) in vacuo. The reduced HFCC value from a simple geometry optimization calculation without both the nuclear quantum effect and thermal effect is −8.18 MHz, and that by standard ab initio molecular dynamics simulation with only the thermal effect and without the nuclear quantum effect is 0.33 MHz at 300 K, where these two methods cannot distinguish the difference between muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals. In contrast, the reduced HFCC value of the muoniated acetone radical by our PIMD simulation is 32.1 MHz, which is about 8 times larger than that for the hydrogenated radical of 3.97 MHz with the same level of calculation. We have found that the HFCC values are highly correlated with the local molecular structures; especially, the Mu—O bond length in the muoniated acetone radical is elongated due to the large nuclear quantum effect of the muon, which makes the expectation value of the HFCC larger. Although our PIMD result calculated in vacuo is about 4 times larger than the measured experimental value in aqueous solvent, the ratio of these HFCC values between muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals in vacuo is in reasonable agreement with the ratio of the experimental values in aqueous solvent (8.56 MHz and 0.9 MHz); the explicit presence of solvent molecules has a major effect on decreasing the reduced muon HFCC of in vacuo calculations for the quantitative reproduction.

  1. A path integral molecular dynamics study of the hyperfine coupling constants of the muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oba, Yuki; Kawatsu, Tsutomu; Tachikawa, Masanori

    2016-01-01

    The on-the-fly ab initio density functional path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations, which can account for both the nuclear quantum effect and thermal effect, were carried out to evaluate the structures and “reduced” isotropic hyperfine coupling constants (HFCCs) for muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals (2-muoxy-2-propyl and 2-hydoxy-2-propyl) in vacuo. The reduced HFCC value from a simple geometry optimization calculation without both the nuclear quantum effect and thermal effect is −8.18 MHz, and that by standard ab initio molecular dynamics simulation with only the thermal effect and without the nuclear quantum effect is 0.33 MHz at 300 K, where these two methods cannot distinguish the difference between muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals. In contrast, the reduced HFCC value of the muoniated acetone radical by our PIMD simulation is 32.1 MHz, which is about 8 times larger than that for the hydrogenated radical of 3.97 MHz with the same level of calculation. We have found that the HFCC values are highly correlated with the local molecular structures; especially, the Mu—O bond length in the muoniated acetone radical is elongated due to the large nuclear quantum effect of the muon, which makes the expectation value of the HFCC larger. Although our PIMD result calculated in vacuo is about 4 times larger than the measured experimental value in aqueous solvent, the ratio of these HFCC values between muoniated and hydrogenated acetone radicals in vacuo is in reasonable agreement with the ratio of the experimental values in aqueous solvent (8.56 MHz and 0.9 MHz); the explicit presence of solvent molecules has a major effect on decreasing the reduced muon HFCC of in vacuo calculations for the quantitative reproduction.

  2. An isotopic and modelling study of flow paths and storage in Quaternary calcarenite, SW Australia: implications for speleothem paleoclimate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treble, Pauline C.; Bradley, Chris; Wood, Anne; Baker, Andy; Jex, Catherine N.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Gagan, Michael K.; Cowley, Joan; Azcurra, Cecilia

    2013-03-01

    We investigated the distinctive shallow sub-surface hydrology of the southwest Western Australia (SWWA) dune calcarenite using observed rainfall and rainfall δ18O; soil moisture, cave drip rate and dripwater δ18O over a six-year period: August 2005-March 2012. A lumped parameter hydrological model is developed to describe water fluxes and drip δ18O. Comparison of observed data and model output allow us to assess the critical non-climatic karst hydrological processes that modify the precipitation δ18O signal and discuss the implications for speleothem paleoclimate records from this cave and those with a similar karst setting. Our findings include evidence of multiple reservoirs, characterised by distinct δ18O values and recharge responses ('low' and 'high' flow sites). Dripwaters exhibit δ18O variations in wet versus dry years at low-flow sites receiving diffuse seepage from the epikarst with an attenuated isotopic composition that approximates mean rainfall. Recharge from high-magnitude rain events is stored in a secondary reservoir which is associated with high-flow dripwater that is 1‰ lower than our monitored low-flow sites (δ18O). One drip site is characterised by mixed-flow behaviour and exhibits a non-linear threshold response after the cessation of drainage from a secondary reservoir following a record dry year (2006). Additionally, our results yield a better understanding of the vadose zone hydrology and dripwater characteristics in Quaternary age dune limestones. We show that flow to our monitored sites is dominated by diffuse flow with inferred transit times of less than one year. Diffuse flow appears to follow vertical preferential paths through the limestone reflecting differences in permeability and deep recharge into the host rock.

  3. Stress-related psychological symptoms contribute to axial pain persistence after motor vehicle collision: path analysis results from a prospective longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Rose K; Hu, JunMei; Weaver, Mark A; Fillingim, Roger B; Swor, Robert A; Peak, David A; Jones, Jeffrey S; Rathlev, Niels K; Lee, David C; Domeier, Robert M; Hendry, Phyllis L; Liberzon, Israel; McLean, Samuel A

    2017-04-01

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and pain after traumatic events such as motor vehicle collision (MVC) have been proposed to be mutually promoting. We performed a prospective multicenter study that enrolled 948 individuals who presented to the emergency department within 24 hours of MVC and were discharged home after evaluation. Follow-up evaluations were completed 6 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year after MVC. Path analysis results supported the hypothesis that axial pain after MVC consistently promotes the maintenance of hyperarousal and intrusive symptoms, from the early weeks after injury through 1 year. In addition, path analysis results supported the hypothesis that one or more PTSD symptom clusters had an influence on axial pain outcomes throughout the year after MVC, with hyperarousal symptoms most influencing axial pain persistence in the initial months after MVC. The influence of hyperarousal symptoms on pain persistence was only present among individuals with genetic vulnerability to stress-induced pain, suggesting specific mechanisms by which hyperarousal symptoms may lead to hyperalgesia and allodynia. Further studies are needed to better understand the specific mechanisms by which pain and PTSD symptoms enhance one another after trauma, and how such mechanisms vary among specific patient subgroups, to better inform the development of secondary preventive interventions.

  4. Multimodel hydrological ensemble forecasts for the Baskatong catchment in Canada using the TIGGE database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito Arandia Martinez, Fabian

    2014-05-01

    combined to form a grand ensemble. Results show that the hydrological forecasts derived from the grand ensemble perform better than the pseudo ensemble forecasts actually used operationally at Hydro-Québec. References: [1] M. Verbunt, A. Walser, J. Gurtz et al., "Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 897-909, Aug, 2007. [2] N. Evora, Valorisation des prévisions météorologiques d'ensemble, Institu de recherceh d'Hydro-Québec 2005. [3] V. Fortin, Le modèle météo-apport HSAMI: historique, théorie et application, Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec, 2000.

  5. Paths correlation matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Weixian; Zhou, Xiaojun; Lu, Yingcheng; Xu, Jiang

    2015-09-15

    Both the Jones and Mueller matrices encounter difficulties when physically modeling mixed materials or rough surfaces due to the complexity of light-matter interactions. To address these issues, we derived a matrix called the paths correlation matrix (PCM), which is a probabilistic mixture of Jones matrices of every light propagation path. Because PCM is related to actual light propagation paths, it is well suited for physical modeling. Experiments were performed, and the reflection PCM of a mixture of polypropylene and graphite was measured. The PCM of the mixed sample was accurately decomposed into pure polypropylene's single reflection, pure graphite's single reflection, and depolarization caused by multiple reflections, which is consistent with the theoretical derivation. Reflection parameters of rough surface can be calculated from PCM decomposition, and the results fit well with the theoretical calculations provided by the Fresnel equations. These theoretical and experimental analyses verify that PCM is an efficient way to physically model light-matter interactions.

  6. Leavitt path algebras

    CERN Document Server

    Abrams, Gene; Siles Molina, Mercedes

    2017-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive introduction by three of the leading experts in the field, collecting fundamental results and open problems in a single volume. Since Leavitt path algebras were first defined in 2005, interest in these algebras has grown substantially, with ring theorists as well as researchers working in graph C*-algebras, group theory and symbolic dynamics attracted to the topic. Providing a historical perspective on the subject, the authors review existing arguments, establish new results, and outline the major themes and ring-theoretic concepts, such as the ideal structure, Z-grading and the close link between Leavitt path algebras and graph C*-algebras. The book also presents key lines of current research, including the Algebraic Kirchberg Phillips Question, various additional classification questions, and connections to noncommutative algebraic geometry. Leavitt Path Algebras will appeal to graduate students and researchers working in the field and related areas, such as C*-algebras and...

  7. A genetic ensemble approach for gene-gene interaction identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Joshua WK

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has now become clear that gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions are ubiquitous and fundamental mechanisms for the development of complex diseases. Though a considerable effort has been put into developing statistical models and algorithmic strategies for identifying such interactions, the accurate identification of those genetic interactions has been proven to be very challenging. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach for identifying such gene-gene and gene-environment interactions underlying complex diseases. This is a hybrid algorithm and it combines genetic algorithm (GA and an ensemble of classifiers (called genetic ensemble. Using this approach, the original problem of SNP interaction identification is converted into a data mining problem of combinatorial feature selection. By collecting various single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP subsets as well as environmental factors generated in multiple GA runs, patterns of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be extracted using a simple combinatorial ranking method. Also considered in this study is the idea of combining identification results obtained from multiple algorithms. A novel formula based on pairwise double fault is designed to quantify the degree of complementarity. Conclusions Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm has comparable identification power to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR and is slightly better than Polymorphism Interaction Analysis (PIA, which are the two most popular methods for gene-gene interaction identification. More importantly, the identification results generated by using our genetic ensemble algorithm are highly complementary to those obtained by PIA and MDR. Experimental results from our simulation studies and real world data application also confirm the effectiveness of the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm, as well as the potential benefits of

  8. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  9. Exploiting ensemble learning for automatic cataract detection and grading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ji-Jiang; Li, Jianqiang; Shen, Ruifang; Zeng, Yang; He, Jian; Bi, Jing; Li, Yong; Zhang, Qinyan; Peng, Lihui; Wang, Qing

    2016-02-01

    Cataract is defined as a lenticular opacity presenting usually with poor visual acuity. It is one of the most common causes of visual impairment worldwide. Early diagnosis demands the expertise of trained healthcare professionals, which may present a barrier to early intervention due to underlying costs. To date, studies reported in the literature utilize a single learning model for retinal image classification in grading cataract severity. We present an ensemble learning based approach as a means to improving diagnostic accuracy. Three independent feature sets, i.e., wavelet-, sketch-, and texture-based features, are extracted from each fundus image. For each feature set, two base learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network, are built. Then, the ensemble methods, majority voting and stacking, are investigated to combine the multiple base learning models for final fundus image classification. Empirical experiments are conducted for cataract detection (two-class task, i.e., cataract or non-cataractous) and cataract grading (four-class task, i.e., non-cataractous, mild, moderate or severe) tasks. The best performance of the ensemble classifier is 93.2% and 84.5% in terms of the correct classification rates for cataract detection and grading tasks, respectively. The results demonstrate that the ensemble classifier outperforms the single learning model significantly, which also illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

  11. Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

  12. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  13. MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

  14. The Thinnest Path Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-22

    be reduced to TP in -D UDH for any . We then show that the 2-D disk hypergraph constructed in the proof of Theorem 1 can be modified to an exposed...transmission range that induces hy- peredge , i.e., (3) GAO et al.: THINNEST PATH PROBLEM 1181 Theorem 5 shows that the covered area of the path...representation of (the two hyperedges rooted at from the example given in Fig. 6 are illustrated in green and blue, respectively). step, we show in this

  15. Path dependence and creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garud, Raghu; Karnøe, Peter

    This edited volume stems from a conference held in Copenhagen that the authors ran in August of 1997. The authors, aware of the recent work in evolutionary theory and the science of chaos and complexity, challenge the sometimes deterministic flavour of this work. They are interested in uncovering...... the place of agency in these theories that take history so seriously. In the end, they are as interested in path creation and destruction as they are in path dependence. This book is compiled of both theoretical and empirical writing. It shows relatively well-known industries such as the automobile...

  16. Reparametrization in the path integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storchak, S.N.

    1983-01-01

    The question of the invariance of a measure in the n-dimensional path integral under the path reparametrization is considered. The non-invariance of the measure through the jacobian is suggeste. After the path integral reparametrization the representatioq for the Green's function of the Hamilton operator in terms of the path integral with the classical Hamiltonian has been obtained

  17. Stochastic control with rough paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diehl, Joscha; Friz, Peter K.; Gassiat, Paul

    2017-01-01

    We study a class of controlled differential equations driven by rough paths (or rough path realizations of Brownian motion) in the sense of Lyons. It is shown that the value function satisfies a HJB type equation; we also establish a form of the Pontryagin maximum principle. Deterministic problems of this type arise in the duality theory for controlled diffusion processes and typically involve anticipating stochastic analysis. We make the link to old work of Davis and Burstein (Stoch Stoch Rep 40:203–256, 1992) and then prove a continuous-time generalization of Roger’s duality formula [SIAM J Control Optim 46:1116–1132, 2007]. The generic case of controlled volatility is seen to give trivial duality bounds, and explains the focus in Burstein–Davis’ (and this) work on controlled drift. Our study of controlled rough differential equations also relates to work of Mazliak and Nourdin (Stoch Dyn 08:23, 2008).

  18. Stochastic control with rough paths

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diehl, Joscha [University of California San Diego (United States); Friz, Peter K., E-mail: friz@math.tu-berlin.de [TU & WIAS Berlin (Germany); Gassiat, Paul [CEREMADE, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University (France)

    2017-04-15

    We study a class of controlled differential equations driven by rough paths (or rough path realizations of Brownian motion) in the sense of Lyons. It is shown that the value function satisfies a HJB type equation; we also establish a form of the Pontryagin maximum principle. Deterministic problems of this type arise in the duality theory for controlled diffusion processes and typically involve anticipating stochastic analysis. We make the link to old work of Davis and Burstein (Stoch Stoch Rep 40:203–256, 1992) and then prove a continuous-time generalization of Roger’s duality formula [SIAM J Control Optim 46:1116–1132, 2007]. The generic case of controlled volatility is seen to give trivial duality bounds, and explains the focus in Burstein–Davis’ (and this) work on controlled drift. Our study of controlled rough differential equations also relates to work of Mazliak and Nourdin (Stoch Dyn 08:23, 2008).

  19. Static and dynamic experimental study of strengthened reinforced short concrete corbel by using carbon fabrics, crack path in shear zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Ivanova

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an experimental analysis of tracking the path of the cracks and crack growth in strengthened or repair reinforced concrete short corbels bonded by carbon fiber fabrics under static and dynamic loads. The reinforced short concrete corbel is a used precast element, for industrial buildings and structures. In fact, their functioning interestingly unconventional is compared to classical beam type elements. Then the effects of bending and shearing are combined in this case. The horizontal reinforced steel is localized to resist to tensile strength induced in bending top and a transversal strength-absorbing contribution. The introduction of carbon fiber composite in the field of Civil Engineering allows to strengthen or repair reinforced concrete structures using adhesive. So the carbon fiber material has many advantages as its low weight, flexibility, easier handling and also interesting physicochemical properties. However maintenance of civil engineering works is to protect them by ensuring better sealing or limiting corrosion. Then strengthening is to repair structures by using bonding technique to compensate their rigidity loss and limit the cracking. This allows to improve their performance and durability. Bonding of composite material in tensile zone of corbel retrieves most tensile stress and allows the structure to extend their load-bearing capacity. The local behavior of the structure is measured by means of the extensometer technique based on electrical strain gauges. This technique allowed to measure strains of steel, carbon fiber fabrics and concrete. The results of this investigation showed that strengthened reinforced concrete corbel bonded by carbon fiber fabrics can improve the ultimate load to twice and stiffens less than a third. The ultimate load, strain and displacement of the specimen are compared to reference experimental model of monotonic and cyclic applied loads. The success of strengthening depends strongly

  20. Study and building of a detection array for delayed neutrons: TONNERRE; Etude et realisation d`un ensemble de detection pour neutrons retardes: TONNERRE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Thierry [Lab. de Physique Corpusculaire, Caen Univ., 14 - Caen (France)

    1998-11-09

    This work has been undertaken within a French-Romanian collaboration in order to build a high efficiency detector array for delayed neutrons: barrel-shaped TONNERRE. Some neutron-rich nuclei decay through 1, 2 or 3 neutron emission after {beta}{sup -} decay. More exotic nuclei will be produced by SPIRAL at GANIL. An array with high efficiency and good resolution is then required. Thirty two BC400 plastic scintillators (160 x 20 x 4 cm{sup 3}) allow us to get the time of flight neutron spectra. They are bent for uniform flight path and viewed by a photomultiplier tube at both ends. Simulations have allowed to establish scintillator size and to minimize light attenuation. Intrinsic efficiency and crosstalk have been measured with {sup 252}Cf and compared to GEANT. 1 to 5 MeV neutrons are detected with good timing and position properties. Other counters will be built for neutrons from 300 keV to 1 MeV. Planned to run at several particle accelerators (GANIL, CERN, and others), TONNERRE is modular and many geometries are possible. (author) 48 refs., 78 figs., 20 tabs.

  1. Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

    2005-08-30

    A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

  2. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xian-Zhi

    2016-01-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula. (paper)

  3. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Zhi

    2016-02-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

  4. Study of the Energy Dependence of the Anomalous Mean Free Path Effect by Means of High-energy ($\\geq$12 GeV/nucleon) Helium Nuclei

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    The proposal concerns an extension to higher energies of previous experiments which have provided evidence for anomalously short reaction mean free paths among projectile fragments from heavy ion interactions.\\\\ \\\\ It is intended to provide information on the interaction properties of projectile fragments, mainly 3He, P, D, T as well as of scattered 4He nuclei in passive detectors exposed to beams of energies exceeding those available in previous experim factor of about 7. \\\\ \\\\ Interaction mean free paths and event topologies will be measured in a nuclear emulsion stack (LBL) of 7.5~cm~x~5~cm~x~25~cm dimensions. Decay effects will be recorded by comparing the activity of spallation residues in dense and diluted copper target assemblies (Marburg). Target fragmentation will be studied in a stack of silverchloride crystal foils (Frankfurt) of about 7~cm~x~6~cm~x~1~cm dimensions. The \\alpha beam ejected at EJ~62 will be used to provide both exposures at high intensity of 10|1|2 alphas on th and at low intensity ...

  5. Career path for operations personnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asher, J.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper explains how selected personnel can now obtain a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics with a Nuclear Power Operations option. The program went into effect the Fall of 1984. Another program was worked out in 1982 whereby students attending the Nuclear Operators Training Program could obtain an Associates of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering Technology at the end of two years of study. This paper presents tables and charts which describe these programs and outline the career path for operators

  6. Path integrals in curvilinear coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prokhorov, L.V.

    1984-01-01

    Integration limits are studied for presenting the path integral curvilinear coordinates. For spherical (and topoloqically equivalent) coordinates it is shown that in formulas involving classical action in the exponent integration over all variables should be carried out within infinite limits. Another peculiarity is associated with appearance of the operator q which provides a complete definition of the wave functions out of the physical region. arguments are given upporting the validity of the cited statament in the general case

  7. Designing a performance measurement system for supply chain using balanced scorecard, path analysis, cooperative game theory and evolutionary game theory: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Hootan Eskafi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, supply chain management is known as the key factor for achieving competitive advantage. Better customer service, revenue improvement and cost reduction are the results of this philosophy. Organizations can manage the performance of their firms by appropriate goal setting, identifying criteria and continuous performance measurement, which creates a good view for the business circumstances. Developing and defining appropriate indicators at different levels of chain is necessary for implementing a performance measurement system. In this study, we propose a new method to determine the measurement indicators and strategies of the company in term of balanced scorecard. The study is a combination of balanced scorecard, path analysis, evolutionary game theory and cooperative game theory for strategic planning. The study offers an appropriate program for future activities of organizations and determines the present status of the firm. The implementation of the proposed method is introduced for a food producer and the results are analyzed.

  8. MEASURING PATH DEPENDENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Juhasz

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available While risk management gained popularity during the last decades even some of the basic risk types are still far out of focus. One of these is path dependency that refers to the uncertainty of how we reach a certain level of total performance over time. While decision makers are careful in accessing how their position will look like the end of certain periods, little attention is given how they will get there through the period. The uncertainty of how a process will develop across a shorter period of time is often “eliminated” by simply choosing a longer planning time interval, what makes path dependency is one of the most often overlooked business risk types. After reviewing the origin of the problem we propose and compare seven risk measures to access path. Traditional risk measures like standard deviation of sub period cash flows fail to capture this risk type. We conclude that in most cases considering the distribution of the expected cash flow effect caused by the path dependency may offer the best method, but we may need to use several measures at the same time to include all the optimisation limits of the given firm

  9. Ensemble models of neutrophil trafficking in severe sepsis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Ok Song

    Full Text Available A hallmark of severe sepsis is systemic inflammation which activates leukocytes and can result in their misdirection. This leads to both impaired migration to the locus of infection and increased infiltration into healthy tissues. In order to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved, we developed a coarse-grained phenomenological model of the acute inflammatory response in CLP (cecal ligation and puncture-induced sepsis in rats. This model incorporates distinct neutrophil kinetic responses to the inflammatory stimulus and the dynamic interactions between components of a compartmentalized inflammatory response. Ensembles of model parameter sets consistent with experimental observations were statistically generated using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Prediction uncertainty in the model states was quantified over the resulting ensemble parameter sets. Forward simulation of the parameter ensembles successfully captured experimental features and predicted that systemically activated circulating neutrophils display impaired migration to the tissue and neutrophil sequestration in the lung, consequently contributing to tissue damage and mortality. Principal component and multiple regression analyses of the parameter ensembles estimated from survivor and non-survivor cohorts provide insight into pathologic mechanisms dictating outcome in sepsis. Furthermore, the model was extended to incorporate hypothetical mechanisms by which immune modulation using extracorporeal blood purification results in improved outcome in septic rats. Simulations identified a sub-population (about 18% of the treated population that benefited from blood purification. Survivors displayed enhanced neutrophil migration to tissue and reduced sequestration of lung neutrophils, contributing to improved outcome. The model ensemble presented herein provides a platform for generating and testing hypotheses in silico, as well as motivating further experimental

  10. The Reduced Rank of Ensemble Kalman Filter to Estimate the Temperature of Non Isothermal Continue Stirred Tank Reactor

    OpenAIRE

    Erna Apriliani; Dieky Adzkiya; Arief Baihaqi

    2011-01-01

    Kalman filter is an algorithm to estimate the state variable of dynamical stochastic system. The square root ensemble Kalman filter is an modification of Kalman filter. The square root ensemble Kalman filter is proposed to keep the computational stability and reduce the computational time. In this paper we study the efficiency of the reduced rank ensemble Kalman filter. We apply this algorithm to the non isothermal continue stirred tank reactor problem. We decompose the covariance of the ense...

  11. Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divsalar, Dariush

    2006-01-01

    Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.

  12. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2012-01-01

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work

  13. AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

    2016-05-01

    Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

  14. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function

  15. New type of chimera and mutual synchronization of spatiotemporal structures in two coupled ensembles of nonlocally interacting chaotic maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukh, Andrei; Rybalova, Elena; Semenova, Nadezhda; Strelkova, Galina; Anishchenko, Vadim

    2017-11-01

    We study numerically the dynamics of a network made of two coupled one-dimensional ensembles of discrete-time systems. The first ensemble is represented by a ring of nonlocally coupled Henon maps and the second one by a ring of nonlocally coupled Lozi maps. We find that the network of coupled ensembles can realize all the spatio-temporal structures which are observed both in the Henon map ensemble and in the Lozi map ensemble while uncoupled. Moreover, we reveal a new type of spatiotemporal structure, a solitary state chimera, in the considered network. We also establish and describe the effect of mutual synchronization of various complex spatiotemporal patterns in the system of two coupled ensembles of Henon and Lozi maps.

  16. The use of novel DNA nanotracers to determine groundwater flow paths - a test study at the Grimsel Deep Underground Geothermal (DUG) Laboratory in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittilä, Anniina; Evans, Keith; Puddu, Michela; Mikutis, Gediminas; Grass, Robert N.; Deuber, Claudia; Saar, Martin O.

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater flow in fractured media is heterogeneous and takes place in structures with complex geometry and scale effects, which make the characterization and modeling of the groundwater flow technically challenging. Surface geophysical surveys have limited resolution of permeable structures, and often provide ambiguous results, whereas the interpretation of borehole flow logs to infer hydraulic flow paths within fractured reservoirs is usually non-unique. Nonetheless, knowledge of the hydraulic properties of individual fractures and the role they play in determining the larger-scale flow within the fracture network (i.e. the overall flow conditions) is required in many hydrogeological and geo-engineering situations, such as in geothermal reservoir studies. Tracer tests can overcome some of the aforementioned limitations by providing strong constraints on the geometry and characteristics of flow paths linking boreholes within both porous media and fracture-dominated types of reservoirs. In the case of geothermal reservoirs, tracer tests are often used to provide estimates of the pore/fracture volume swept by flow between injection and production wells. This in turn places constraints on the swept surface area, a parameter that is key for estimating the commercial longevity of the geothermal system. A problem with conventional tracer tests is that the solute species used as the tracer tend to persist in detectable quantities within the reservoir for a long time, thereby impeding repeat tracer tests. DNA nanotracers do not suffer from this problem as they can be designed with a unique signature for each test. DNA nanotracers are environmentally friendly, sub-micron sized silica particles encapsulating small fragments of synthetic DNA which can be fabricated to have a specified, uniquely detectable configuration. For this reason, repeat tracer tests conducted with a differently-encoded DNA fragment to that used in the original will not suffer interference from the

  17. Polarized ensembles of random pure states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunden, Fabio Deelan; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe

    2013-01-01

    A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise. (paper)

  18. Polarized ensembles of random pure states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deelan Cunden, Fabio; Facchi, Paolo; Florio, Giuseppe

    2013-08-01

    A new family of polarized ensembles of random pure states is presented. These ensembles are obtained by linear superposition of two random pure states with suitable distributions, and are quite manageable. We will use the obtained results for two purposes: on the one hand we will be able to derive an efficient strategy for sampling states from isopurity manifolds. On the other, we will characterize the deviation of a pure quantum state from separability under the influence of noise.

  19. Orbital magnetism in ensembles of ballistic billiards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullmo, D.; Richter, K.; Jalabert, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    The magnetic response of ensembles of small two-dimensional structures at finite temperatures is calculated. Using semiclassical methods and numerical calculation it is demonstrated that only short classical trajectories are relevant. The magnetic susceptibility is enhanced in regular systems, where these trajectories appear in families. For ensembles of squares large paramagnetic susceptibility is obtained, in good agreement with recent measurements in the ballistic regime. (authors). 20 refs., 2 figs

  20. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    OpenAIRE

    S. Roh; M. Jun; I. Szunyogh; M. G. Genton

    2015-01-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of ...

  1. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni

    2014-04-26

    Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.

  2. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  3. Ductility behavior of irradiated path B alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, W.J.S.; Hamilton, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the practicality of using five Path B alloys in their current form as structural materials in the Fusion First-Wall/Blanket by evaluating both their postirradiation ductility and the corresponding microstructures

  4. A Case Study on the Implementation of a Positive Youth Development Program (Project P.A.T.H.S. in Hong Kong: Learning from the Experimental Implementation Phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tak Yan Lee

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This investigation of the implementation of a positive youth development program (Project P.A.T.H.S. was part of a large study undertaken comprehensively to explore how effective the Tier 1 Program was in practice and how the results can shed light on future developments. Utilizing a case study approach, individual and focus group interviews were conducted in 2007 to examine the factors that influence the process and quality of implementation of the Tier 1 Program of the Project P.A.T.H.S. The focus of this study was on how the implementers of a school made use of the experience gained in the Experimental Implementation Phase (EIP in 2005/06 to improve the program implementation quality in the Full Implementation Phase (FIP in 2006/07. Results showed that the program implementation in the FIP was generally high and the program was well received by the implementers. Factors that facilitated the implementation of the program were identified, including the adoption of an incremental change strategy, the incorporation of the program into both formal and informal curricula, positive perceptions of the program among staff and agency social workers, sufficient school administrative support, excellent cooperation between the school and the social work agency, presence of a dedicated school contact person and instructors who engaged themselves in continuous quality improvement of the implementation, and an emphasis on application of what had been learned. Difficulties encountered by the school in the process of implementation were also observed. Based on the present findings, key process variables that facilitate or impede the implementation of positive youth development programs are discussed. Implications for future program implementation are also discussed.

  5. Rotationally invariant family of Levy-like random matrix ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jinmyung; Muttalib, K A

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a family of rotationally invariant random matrix ensembles characterized by a parameter λ. While λ = 1 corresponds to well-known critical ensembles, we show that λ ≠ 1 describes 'Levy-like' ensembles, characterized by power-law eigenvalue densities. For λ > 1 the density is bounded, as in Gaussian ensembles, but λ < 1 describes ensembles characterized by densities with long tails. In particular, the model allows us to evaluate, in terms of a novel family of orthogonal polynomials, the eigenvalue correlations for Levy-like ensembles. These correlations differ qualitatively from those in either the Gaussian or the critical ensembles. (fast track communication)

  6. A variational ensemble scheme for noisy image data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yin; Robinson, Cordelia; Heitz, Dominique; Mémin, Etienne

    2014-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques aim at recovering a system state variables trajectory denoted as X, along time from partially observed noisy measurements of the system denoted as Y. These procedures, which couple dynamics and noisy measurements of the system, fulfill indeed a twofold objective. On one hand, they provide a denoising - or reconstruction - procedure of the data through a given model framework and on the other hand, they provide estimation procedures for unknown parameters of the dynamics. A standard variational data assimilation problem can be formulated as the minimization of the following objective function with respect to the initial discrepancy, η, from the background initial guess: δ« J(η(x)) = 1∥Xb (x) - X (t ,x)∥2 + 1 tf∥H(X (t,x ))- Y (t,x)∥2dt. 2 0 0 B 2 t0 R (1) where the observation operator H links the state variable and the measurements. The cost function can be interpreted as the log likelihood function associated to the a posteriori distribution of the state given the past history of measurements and the background. In this work, we aim at studying ensemble based optimal control strategies for data assimilation. Such formulation nicely combines the ingredients of ensemble Kalman filters and variational data assimilation (4DVar). It is also formulated as the minimization of the objective function (1), but similarly to ensemble filter, it introduces in its objective function an empirical ensemble-based background-error covariance defined as: B ≡ )(Xb - )T>. (2) Thus, it works in an off-line smoothing mode rather than on the fly like sequential filters. Such resulting ensemble variational data assimilation technique corresponds to a relatively new family of methods [1,2,3]. It presents two main advantages: first, it does not require anymore to construct the adjoint of the dynamics tangent linear operator, which is a considerable advantage with respect to the method's implementation, and second, it enables the handling of a flow

  7. Collective Dynamics of Specific Gene Ensembles Crucial for Neutrophil Differentiation: The Existence of Genome Vehicles Revealed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Alessandro; Tomita, Masaru

    2010-01-01

    Cell fate decision remarkably generates specific cell differentiation path among the multiple possibilities that can arise through the complex interplay of high-dimensional genome activities. The coordinated action of thousands of genes to switch cell fate decision has indicated the existence of stable attractors guiding the process. However, origins of the intracellular mechanisms that create “cellular attractor” still remain unknown. Here, we examined the collective behavior of genome-wide expressions for neutrophil differentiation through two different stimuli, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and all-trans-retinoic acid (atRA). To overcome the difficulties of dealing with single gene expression noises, we grouped genes into ensembles and analyzed their expression dynamics in correlation space defined by Pearson correlation and mutual information. The standard deviation of correlation distributions of gene ensembles reduces when the ensemble size is increased following the inverse square root law, for both ensembles chosen randomly from whole genome and ranked according to expression variances across time. Choosing the ensemble size of 200 genes, we show the two probability distributions of correlations of randomly selected genes for atRA and DMSO responses overlapped after 48 hours, defining the neutrophil attractor. Next, tracking the ranked ensembles' trajectories, we noticed that only certain, not all, fall into the attractor in a fractal-like manner. The removal of these genome elements from the whole genomes, for both atRA and DMSO responses, destroys the attractor providing evidence for the existence of specific genome elements (named “genome vehicle”) responsible for the neutrophil attractor. Notably, within the genome vehicles, genes with low or moderate expression changes, which are often considered noisy and insignificant, are essential components for the creation of the neutrophil attractor. Further investigations along with our findings might

  8. From Cleanup to Stewardship. A companion report to Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure and background information to support the scoping process required for the 1998 PEIS Settlement Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    1999-10-01

    Long-term stewardship is expected to be needed at more than 100 DOE sites after DOE's Environmental Management program completes disposal, stabilization, and restoration operations to address waste and contamination resulting from nuclear research and nuclear weapons production conducted over the past 50 years. From Cleanup to stewardship provides background information on the Department of Energy (DOE) long-term stewardship obligations and activities. This document begins to examine the transition from cleanup to long-term stewardship, and it fulfills the Secretary's commitment to the President in the 1999 Performance Agreement to provide a companion report to the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure report. It also provides background information to support the scoping process required for a study on long-term stewardship required by a 1998 Settlement Agreement.

  9. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plotkin, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Singh, Margaret [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Patterson, Phil [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Ward, Jake [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Wood, Frances [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Kydes, Niko [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Holte, John [OnLocation Inc., Vienna, VA (United States); Moore, Jim [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Miller, Grant [TA Engineering, Inc., Catonsville, MD (United States); Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Greene, David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2009-07-22

    This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

  10. Path-Goal Theory of Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-04-01

    Leadership and Turnover Among Managers ," Organization Behavior and Human Performance, 10(1973), pp. 184-200; R. J. House, "A Path-Goal Theory of...of Leadership ." 6R. J. House and G. Dessler, "Path-Goal Theory of Leadership " R. M. Stqg- dill. Managers , Employees, Organization (Ohio State...of Control." 23 R. J. House, "Notes on the Path-Goal Theory of Leadership " (University of Toronto, Faculty of Management Studies, May 1974). 24 R

  11. Path probability of stochastic motion: A functional approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattori, Masayuki; Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2016-06-01

    The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically evaluated in a way analogous to continuous measurements in quantum mechanics. Then, the formalism developed here is applied to the stochastic dynamics of stock price in finance.

  12. Effects of Aerosol on Cloud Liquid Water Path: Statistical Method a Potential Source for Divergence in Past Observation Based Correlative Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ousmane Sy Savane

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies show a divergence in correlation between aerosol and cloud proxies, which has been thought of in the past as the results of varying physical mechanisms. Though modeling studies have supported this idea, from an observational standpoint it is difficult to attribute with confidence the correlations to specific physical mechanisms. We explore a methodology to assess the correlation between cloud water path and aerosol optical depth using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Aqua retrieved aerosol and cloud properties for absorbing and non-absorbing aerosol types over land and over the Atlantic Ocean for various meteorological conditions. The data covers a three-month period, June through August, during which different aerosol types are predominant in specific regions. Our approach eliminates outliers; sorts the data into aerosol bins; and the mean Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD value for each bin and the corresponding mean Cloud Water Path (CWP value are determined. The mean CWP is plotted against the mean AOD. The response curve for all aerosol types shows a peak CWP value corresponding to an aerosol loading value AODpeak. The peak is used to divide the total range of aerosol loading into two sub ranges. For AOD value below AODpeak, mean CWP and mean AOD are positively correlated. The correlation between mean CWP and mean AOD is negative for aerosol loading above AODpeak. Irrespective of aerosol type, atmospheric water vapor content and lower tropospheric static stability, the peak observed for each aerosol type seems to describe a universal feature that calls for further investigation. It has been observed for a variety of geographical locations and different seasons.

  13. Indicators of dependence for different types of tobacco product users: Descriptive findings from Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, David R; Pearson, Jennifer; Ehlke, Sarah; Kirchner, Thomas; Abrams, David; Taylor, Kristie; Compton, Wilson M; Conway, Kevin P; Lambert, Elizabeth; Green, Victoria R; Hull, Lynn C; Evans, Sarah E; Cummings, K Michael; Goniewicz, Maciej; Hyland, Andrew; Niaura, Raymond

    2017-09-01

    With no established standard for assessing tobacco dependence (TD) across tobacco products in surveys, the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study provides a unique platform for examining the psychometric properties and validity of multiple indicators of tobacco dependence across a range of tobacco products. A U.S. nationally representative sample from the 32,320 adult Wave 1 interviews with analyses focused on 14,287 respondents who were current established users of tobacco products. This analysis confirms a single primary latent construct underlying responses to TD indicators for cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cigars, hookah, and smokeless tobacco products. Mutually exclusive past year tobacco-user groups included: cigarette only (n=8689), e-cigarette only (n=437), cigar only (traditional, cigarillo, or filtered) (n=706), hookah only (n=461), smokeless tobacco only (n=971), cigarette plus e-cigarette (n=709), and multiple tobacco product users (n=2314). Differential Item Functioning (DIF) analyses supported use of 16 of the 24 examined TD indicators for comparisons across tobacco users. With cigarette users as a reference (mean=0.0, SD=1.0), we observed a range of TD with hookah (mean=-1.71) and cigar (mean=-1.92) only users being the lowest, and cigarette plus e-cigarette product users being the highest (mean=0.35). Regression models including sociodemographic factors supported concurrent validity with increased product use frequency and TD among cigarette-only (p<0.001), e-cigarette only (p<0.002), cigar (p<0.001), hookah only (p<0.001), and smokeless tobacco users (p<0.001). The PATH Study Adult Wave 1 Questionnaire provided psychometrically valid measures of TD that enables future regulatory investigations of nicotine dependence across tobacco products. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Extremal and Degree Conditions for Path Extendability in Digraphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Zan-Bo; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Broersma, Hajo; Lou, Dingjun

    2017-01-01

    In the study of cycles and paths, the meta-conjecture of Bondy that sufficient conditions for Hamiltonicity often imply pancyclicity has motivated research on the existence of cycles and paths of many lengths. Hendry further introduced the stronger concepts of cycle extendability and path

  15. Analogies between random matrix ensembles and the one-component plasma in two-dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter J. Forrester

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The eigenvalue PDF for some well known classes of non-Hermitian random matrices — the complex Ginibre ensemble for example — can be interpreted as the Boltzmann factor for one-component plasma systems in two-dimensional domains. We address this theme in a systematic fashion, identifying the plasma system for the Ginibre ensemble of non-Hermitian Gaussian random matrices G, the spherical ensemble of the product of an inverse Ginibre matrix and a Ginibre matrix G1−1G2, and the ensemble formed by truncating unitary matrices, as well as for products of such matrices. We do this when each has either real, complex or real quaternion elements. One consequence of this analogy is that the leading form of the eigenvalue density follows as a corollary. Another is that the eigenvalue correlations must obey sum rules known to characterise the plasma system, and this leads us to an exhibit of an integral identity satisfied by the two-particle correlation for real quaternion matrices in the neighbourhood of the real axis. Further random matrix ensembles investigated from this viewpoint are self dual non-Hermitian matrices, in which a previous study has related to the one-component plasma system in a disk at inverse temperature β=4, and the ensemble formed by the single row and column of quaternion elements from a member of the circular symplectic ensemble.

  16. Data Pre-Analysis and Ensemble of Various Artificial Neural Networks for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces three artificial neural network (ANN architectures for monthly streamflow forecasting: a radial basis function network, an extreme learning machine, and the Elman network. Three ensemble techniques, a simple average ensemble, a weighted average ensemble, and an ANN-based ensemble, were used to combine the outputs of the individual ANN models. The objective was to highlight the performance of the general regression neural network-based ensemble technique (GNE through an improvement of monthly streamflow forecasting accuracy. Before the construction of an ANN model, data preanalysis techniques, such as empirical wavelet transform (EWT, were exploited to eliminate the oscillations of the streamflow series. Additionally, a theory of chaos phase space reconstruction was used to select the most relevant and important input variables for forecasting. The proposed GNE ensemble model has been applied for the mean monthly streamflow observation data from the Wudongde hydrological station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Comparisons and analysis of this study have demonstrated that the denoised streamflow time series was less disordered and unsystematic than was suggested by the original time series according to chaos theory. Thus, EWT can be adopted as an effective data preanalysis technique for the prediction of monthly streamflow. Concurrently, the GNE performed better when compared with other ensemble techniques.

  17. Dispersion of aerosol particles in the free atmosphere using ensemble forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Haszpra

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The dispersion of aerosol particle pollutants is studied using 50 members of an ensemble forecast in the example of a hypothetical free atmospheric emission above Fukushima over a period of 2.5 days. Considerable differences are found among the dispersion predictions of the different ensemble members, as well as between the ensemble mean and the deterministic result at the end of the observation period. The variance is found to decrease with the particle size. The geographical area where a threshold concentration is exceeded in at least one ensemble member expands to a 5–10 times larger region than the area from the deterministic forecast, both for air column "concentration" and in the "deposition" field. We demonstrate that the root-mean-square distance of any particle from its own clones in the ensemble members can reach values on the order of one thousand kilometers. Even the centers of mass of the particle cloud of the ensemble members deviate considerably from that obtained by the deterministic forecast. All these indicate that an investigation of the dispersion of aerosol particles in the spirit of ensemble forecast contains useful hints for the improvement of risk assessment.

  18. Benefits of an ultra large and multiresolution ensemble for estimating available wind power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, Jonas; Hoppe, Charlotte; Elbern, Hendrik

    2016-04-01

    In this study we investigate the benefits of an ultra large ensemble with up to 1000 members including multiple nesting with a target horizontal resolution of 1 km. The ensemble shall be used as a basis to detect events of extreme errors in wind power forecasting. Forecast value is the wind vector at wind turbine hub height (~ 100 m) in the short range (1 to 24 hour). Current wind power forecast systems rest already on NWP ensemble models. However, only calibrated ensembles from meteorological institutions serve as input so far, with limited spatial resolution (˜10 - 80 km) and member number (˜ 50). Perturbations related to the specific merits of wind power production are yet missing. Thus, single extreme error events which are not detected by such ensemble power forecasts occur infrequently. The numerical forecast model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Model uncertainties are represented by stochastic parametrization of sub-grid processes via stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies and in conjunction via the complementary stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme already provided by WRF. We perform continuous ensemble updates by comparing each ensemble member with available observations using a sequential importance resampling filter to improve the model accuracy while maintaining ensemble spread. Additionally, we use different ensemble systems from global models (ECMWF and GFS) as input and boundary conditions to capture different synoptic conditions. Critical weather situations which are connected to extreme error events are located and corresponding perturbation techniques are applied. The demanding computational effort is overcome by utilising the supercomputer JUQUEEN at the Forschungszentrum Juelich.

  19. Improving the accuracy of flood forecasting with transpositions of ensemble NWP rainfall fields considering orographic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei

    2016-08-01

    The use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings. However, space scale of the hydrological domain is still much finer than meteorological model, and NWP models have challenges with displacement. The main objective of this study to enhance the transposition method proposed in Yu et al. (2014) and to suggest the post-processing ensemble flood forecasting method for the real-time updating and the accuracy improvement of flood forecasts that considers the separation of the orographic rainfall and the correction of misplaced rain distributions using additional ensemble information through the transposition of rain distributions. In the first step of the proposed method, ensemble forecast rainfalls from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are separated into orographic and non-orographic rainfall fields using atmospheric variables and the extraction of topographic effect. Then the non-orographic rainfall fields are examined by the transposition scheme to produce additional ensemble information and new ensemble NWP rainfall fields are calculated by recombining the transposition results of non-orographic rain fields with separated orographic rainfall fields for a generation of place-corrected ensemble information. Then, the additional ensemble information is applied into a hydrologic model for post-flood forecasting with a 6-h interval. The newly proposed method has a clear advantage to improve the accuracy of mean value of ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon 'Talas' of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1 km2) and Nanairo (182.1 km2) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2360 km2), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.

  20. Nonadiabatic transition path sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherman, M. C.; Corcelli, S. A.

    2016-01-01

    Fewest-switches surface hopping (FSSH) is combined with transition path sampling (TPS) to produce a new method called nonadiabatic path sampling (NAPS). The NAPS method is validated on a model electron transfer system coupled to a Langevin bath. Numerically exact rate constants are computed using the reactive flux (RF) method over a broad range of solvent frictions that span from the energy diffusion (low friction) regime to the spatial diffusion (high friction) regime. The NAPS method is shown to quantitatively reproduce the RF benchmark rate constants over the full range of solvent friction. Integrating FSSH within the TPS framework expands the applicability of both approaches and creates a new method that will be helpful in determining detailed mechanisms for nonadiabatic reactions in the condensed-phase.

  1. Synchronization dynamics in a small pacemaker neuronal ensemble via a robust adaptive controller

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornejo-Pérez, O.; Solis-Perales, G.C.; Arenas-Prado, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    The synchronization dynamics of a pacemaker neuronal ensemble under the action of a control command is studied herein. The ensemble corresponds to the pyloric central pattern generator of the stomatogastric ganglion of lobster. The desired dynamics is provided by means of an external master neuron and it is induced via a nonlinear controller. Such a controller is composed of a linearizing-like controller and a high gain observer; the controller is able to counteract uncertainties and external perturbations in the controlled system. Numerical simulations of the robust synchronization dynamics of the master neuron and the pacemaker neuronal ensemble are displayed.

  2. Control of inhomogeneous atomic ensembles of hyperfine qudits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischuck, Brian Edward; Merkel, Seth T.; Deutsch, Ivan H.

    2012-01-01

    We study the ability to control d-dimensional quantum systems (qudits) encoded in the hyperfine spin of alkali-metal atoms through the application of radio- and microwave-frequency magnetic fields in the presence of inhomogeneities in amplitude and detuning. Such a capability is essential...... to the design of robust pulses that mitigate the effects of experimental uncertainty and also for application to tomographic addressing of particular members of an extended ensemble. We study the problem of preparing an arbitrary state in the Hilbert space from an initial fiducial state. We prove...... that inhomogeneous control of qudit ensembles is possible based on a semianalytic protocol that synthesizes the target through a sequence of alternating rf and microwave-driven SU(2) rotations in overlapping irreducible subspaces. Several examples of robust control are studied, and the semianalytic protocol...

  3. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  4. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  5. How Physics Teachers Approach Innovation: An Empirical Study for Reconstructing the Appropriation Path in the Case of Special Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ambrosis, Anna; Levrini, Olivia

    2010-01-01

    This paper concerns an empirical study carried out with a group of high school physics teachers engaged in the Module on relativity of a Master course on the teaching of modern physics. The study is framed within the general research issue of how to promote innovation in school via teachers' education and how to foster fruitful interactions…

  6. Wide-Area Landslide Deformation Mapping with Multi-Path ALOS PALSAR Data Stacks: A Case Study of Three Gorges Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuguo Shi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR has been adopted as a spaceborne geodetic tool to successfully measure surface deformation of a few well-known landslides in the Three Gorges area. In consideration of the fact that most events of slope failure happened at places other than those famous landslides since the reservoir impoundment in 2003, focusing on a limited number of slopes is insufficient to meet the requirements of regional-scale landslide disaster prevention and early warning. As a result, it has become a vital task to evaluate the overall stability of slopes across the vast area of Three Gorges using wide-coverage InSAR datasets. In this study, we explored the approach of carrying out joint analysis of multi-path InSAR data stacks for wide-area landslide deformation mapping. As an example, three ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite PALSAR (Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar data stacks of neighboring ascending paths covering the area along the Yangtze River from Fengjie to Zigui were analyzed. A key problem to be solved is the separation of the tropospheric signal from the interferometric phase, for which we employed a hybrid description model of the atmospheric phase screen (APS to improve APS estimation from time series interferograms. The estimated atmospheric phase was largely correlated with the seasonal rainfall in the temporal dimension. The experimental results show that about 30 slopes covering total areas of 48 km2 were identified to be landslides in active deformation and should be kept under routine surveillance. Analyses of time series displacement measurements revealed that most landslides in the mountainous area far away from Yangtze River suffered from linear deformation, whereas landslides located on the river bank were destabilized predominantly by the influences of reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall.

  7. Plasticity of the Binding Site of Renin: Optimized Selection of Protein Structures for Ensemble Docking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strecker, Claas; Meyer, Bernd

    2018-05-02

    Protein flexibility poses a major challenge to docking of potential ligands in that the binding site can adopt different shapes. Docking algorithms usually keep the protein rigid and only allow the ligand to be treated as flexible. However, a wrong assessment of the shape of the binding pocket can prevent a ligand from adapting a correct pose. Ensemble docking is a simple yet promising method to solve this problem: Ligands are docked into multiple structures, and the results are subsequently merged. Selection of protein structures is a significant factor for this approach. In this work we perform a comprehensive and comparative study evaluating the impact of structure selection on ensemble docking. We perform ensemble docking with several crystal structures and with structures derived from molecular dynamics simulations of renin, an attractive target for antihypertensive drugs. Here, 500 ns of MD simulations revealed binding site shapes not found in any available crystal structure. We evaluate the importance of structure selection for ensemble docking by comparing binding pose prediction, ability to rank actives above nonactives (screening utility), and scoring accuracy. As a result, for ensemble definition k-means clustering appears to be better suited than hierarchical clustering with average linkage. The best performing ensemble consists of four crystal structures and is able to reproduce the native ligand poses better than any individual crystal structure. Moreover this ensemble outperforms 88% of all individual crystal structures in terms of screening utility as well as scoring accuracy. Similarly, ensembles of MD-derived structures perform on average better than 75% of any individual crystal structure in terms of scoring accuracy at all inspected ensembles sizes.

  8. A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

  9. Sequential Ensembles Tolerant to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR Soil Moisture Retrieval Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Hyoung Lee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to complicated and undefined systematic errors in satellite observation, data assimilation integrating model states with satellite observations is more complicated than field measurements-based data assimilation at a local scale. In the case of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR soil moisture, the systematic errors arising from uncertainties in roughness conditions are significant and unavoidable, but current satellite bias correction methods do not resolve the problems very well. Thus, apart from the bias correction process of satellite observation, it is important to assess the inherent capability of satellite data assimilation in such sub-optimal but more realistic observational error conditions. To this end, time-evolving sequential ensembles of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF is compared with stationary ensemble of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI scheme that does not evolve the ensembles over time. As the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the surface roughness is more sensitive to the SAR retrievals than measurement errors, it is a scope of this study to monitor how data assimilation alters the effects of roughness on SAR soil moisture retrievals. In results, two data assimilation schemes all provided intermediate values between SAR overestimation, and model underestimation. However, under the same SAR observational error conditions, the sequential ensembles approached a calibrated model showing the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, while the stationary ensemble converged towards the SAR observations exhibiting the highest RMSE. As compared to stationary ensembles, sequential ensembles have a better tolerance to SAR retrieval errors. Such inherent nature of EnKF suggests an operational merit as a satellite data assimilation system, due to the limitation of bias correction methods currently available.

  10. Weighted ensemble transform Kalman filter for image assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastien Beyou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an extension of the Weighted Ensemble Kalman filter (WEnKF proposed by Papadakis et al. (2010 for the assimilation of image observations. The main focus of this study is on a novel formulation of the Weighted filter with the Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF, incorporating directly as a measurement model a non-linear image reconstruction criterion. This technique has been compared to the original WEnKF on numerical and real world data of 2-D turbulence observed through the transport of a passive scalar. In particular, it has been applied for the reconstruction of oceanic surface current vorticity fields from sea surface temperature (SST satellite data. This latter technique enables a consistent recovery along time of oceanic surface currents and vorticity maps in presence of large missing data areas and strong noise.

  11. Enhancing optical nonreciprocity by an atomic ensemble in two coupled cavities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, L. N.; Wang, Z. H.; Li, Yong

    2018-05-01

    We study the optical nonreciprocal propagation in an optical molecule of two coupled cavities with one of them interacting with a two-level atomic ensemble. The effect of increasing the number of atoms on the optical isolation ratio of the system is studied. We demonstrate that the significant nonlinearity supplied by the coupling of the atomic ensemble with the cavity leads to the realization of greatly-enhanced optical nonreciprocity compared with the case of single atom.

  12. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib

    2017-05-26

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

  13. New technologies for examining the role of neuronal ensembles in drug addiction and fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Fabio C; Koya, Eisuke; Guez-Barber, Danielle H; Bossert, Jennifer M; Lupica, Carl R; Shaham, Yavin; Hope, Bruce T

    2013-11-01

    Correlational data suggest that learned associations are encoded within neuronal ensembles. However, it has been difficult to prove that neuronal ensembles mediate learned behaviours because traditional pharmacological and lesion methods, and even newer cell type-specific methods, affect both activated and non-activated neurons. In addition, previous studies on synaptic and molecular alterations induced by learning did not distinguish between behaviourally activated and non-activated neurons. Here, we describe three new approaches--Daun02 inactivation, FACS sorting of activated neurons and Fos-GFP transgenic rats--that have been used to selectively target and study activated neuronal ensembles in models of conditioned drug effects and relapse. We also describe two new tools--Fos-tTA transgenic mice and inactivation of CREB-overexpressing neurons--that have been used to study the role of neuronal ensembles in conditioned fear.

  14. New technologies for examining neuronal ensembles in drug addiction and fear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Fabio C.; Koya, Eisuke; Guez-Barber, Danielle H.; Bossert, Jennifer M.; Lupica, Carl R.; Shaham, Yavin; Hope, Bruce T.

    2015-01-01

    Correlational data suggest that learned associations are encoded within neuronal ensembles. However, it has been difficult to prove that neuronal ensembles mediate learned behaviours because traditional pharmacological and lesion methods, and even newer cell type-specific methods, affect both activated and non-activated neurons. Additionally, previous studies on synaptic and molecular alterations induced by learning did not distinguish between behaviourally activated and non-activated neurons. Here, we describe three new approaches—Daun02 inactivation, FACS sorting of activated neurons and c-fos-GFP transgenic rats — that have been used to selectively target and study activated neuronal ensembles in models of conditioned drug effects and relapse. We also describe two new tools — c-fos-tTA mice and inactivation of CREB-overexpressing neurons — that have been used to study the role of neuronal ensembles in conditioned fear. PMID:24088811

  15. Shortest Paths and Vehicle Routing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bjørn

    This thesis presents how to parallelize a shortest path labeling algorithm. It is shown how to handle Chvátal-Gomory rank-1 cuts in a column generation context. A Branch-and-Cut algorithm is given for the Elementary Shortest Paths Problem with Capacity Constraint. A reformulation of the Vehicle...... Routing Problem based on partial paths is presented. Finally, a practical application of finding shortest paths in the telecommunication industry is shown....

  16. Dynamics of multi-frequency oscillator ensembles with resonant coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lück, S.; Pikovsky, A.

    2011-07-01

    We study dynamics of populations of resonantly coupled oscillators having different frequencies. Starting from the coupled van der Pol equations we derive the Kuramoto-type phase model for the situation, where the natural frequencies of two interacting subpopulations are in relation 2:1. Depending on the parameter of coupling, ensembles can demonstrate fully synchronous clusters, partial synchrony (only one subpopulation synchronizes), or asynchrony in both subpopulations. Theoretical description of the dynamics based on the Watanabe-Strogatz approach is developed.

  17. Using synchronization in multi-model ensembles to improve prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, P.; Selten, F.

    2012-04-01

    In recent decades, many climate models have been developed to understand and predict the behavior of the Earth's climate system. Although these models are all based on the same basic physical principles, they still show different behavior. This is for example caused by the choice of how to parametrize sub-grid scale processes. One method to combine these imperfect models, is to run a multi-model ensemble. The models are given identical initial conditions and are integrated forward in time. A multi-model estimate can for example be a weighted mean of the ensemble members. We propose to go a step further, and try to obtain synchronization between the imperfect models by connecting the multi-model ensemble, and exchanging information. The combined multi-model ensemble is also known as a supermodel. The supermodel has learned from observations how to optimally exchange information between the ensemble members. In this study we focused on the density and formulation of the onnections within the supermodel. The main question was whether we could obtain syn-chronization between two climate models when connecting only a subset of their state spaces. Limiting the connected subspace has two advantages: 1) it limits the transfer of data (bytes) between the ensemble, which can be a limiting factor in large scale climate models, and 2) learning the optimal connection strategy from observations is easier. To answer the research question, we connected two identical quasi-geostrohic (QG) atmospheric models to each other, where the model have different initial conditions. The QG model is a qualitatively realistic simulation of the winter flow on the Northern hemisphere, has three layers and uses a spectral imple-mentation. We connected the models in the original spherical harmonical state space, and in linear combinations of these spherical harmonics, i.e. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). We show that when connecting through spherical harmonics, we only need to connect 28% of

  18. An experimental study of dependence of hydro turbine vibration parameters on pressure pulsations in the flow path

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekterev, D.; Maslennikova, A.; Abramov, A.

    2017-09-01

    The operation modes of the hydraulic power plant water turbine with the formation of a precessing vortex core were studied on the hydrodynamic set-up with the model of hydraulic unit. The dependence of low-frequency vibrations on flow pressure pulsations in the hydraulic unit was established. The results of the air injection effect on the vibrational parameters of the hydrodynamic set-up were presented.

  19. Charismatic, transformational and visionary dimensions in sport leadership : toward news paths for the study of coach-athletes relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Gomes, António Rui; Cruz, José Fernando A.; Sousa, Sara Almeida e

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we suggest possible applications of the charismatic, transformational and visionary leadership approaches to the sports field, to help understand the dynamics of the coach-athlete relationship. We present the results of our research using these concepts to analyze the work of sports managers. We note that few studies have focused on coaches as promoters of charismatic and transformational behaviors on athletes and teams.

  20. The limit shape problem for ensembles of Young diagrams

    CERN Document Server

    Hora, Akihito

    2016-01-01

    This book treats ensembles of Young diagrams originating from group-theoretical contexts and investigates what statistical properties are observed there in a large-scale limit. The focus is mainly on analyzing the interesting phenomenon that specific curves appear in the appropriate scaling limit for the profiles of Young diagrams. This problem is regarded as an important origin of recent vital studies on harmonic analysis of huge symmetry structures. As mathematics, an asymptotic theory of representations is developed of the symmetric groups of degree n as n goes to infinity. The framework of rigorous limit theorems (especially the law of large numbers) in probability theory is employed as well as combinatorial analysis of group characters of symmetric groups and applications of Voiculescu's free probability. The central destination here is a clear description of the asymptotic behavior of rescaled profiles of Young diagrams in the Plancherel ensemble from both static and dynamic points of view.

  1. Generation of macroscopic singlet states in atomic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Géza; Mitchell, Morgan W.

    2010-05-01

    We study squeezing of the spin uncertainties by quantum non-demolition (QND) measurement in non-polarized spin ensembles. Unlike the case of polarized ensembles, the QND measurements can be performed with negligible back-action, which allows, in principle, perfect spin squeezing as quantified by Tóth et al (2007 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 250405). The generated spin states approach many-body singlet states and contain a macroscopic number of entangled particles even when individual spin is large. We introduce the Gaussian treatment of unpolarized spin states and use it to estimate the achievable spin squeezing for realistic experimental parameters. Our proposal might have applications for magnetometry with a high spatial resolution or quantum memories storing information in decoherence free subspaces.

  2. Security Enrichment in Intrusion Detection System Using Classifier Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uma R. Salunkhe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the era of Internet and with increasing number of people as its end users, a large number of attack categories are introduced daily. Hence, effective detection of various attacks with the help of Intrusion Detection Systems is an emerging trend in research these days. Existing studies show effectiveness of machine learning approaches in handling Intrusion Detection Systems. In this work, we aim to enhance detection rate of Intrusion Detection System by using machine learning technique. We propose a novel classifier ensemble based IDS that is constructed using hybrid approach which combines data level and feature level approach. Classifier ensembles combine the opinions of different experts and improve the intrusion detection rate. Experimental results show the improved detection rates of our system compared to reference technique.

  3. Generalized ensemble theory with non-extensive statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Ke-Ming; Zhang, Ben-Wei; Wang, En-Ke

    2017-12-01

    The non-extensive canonical ensemble theory is reconsidered with the method of Lagrange multipliers by maximizing Tsallis entropy, with the constraint that the normalized term of Tsallis' q -average of physical quantities, the sum ∑ pjq, is independent of the probability pi for Tsallis parameter q. The self-referential problem in the deduced probability and thermal quantities in non-extensive statistics is thus avoided, and thermodynamical relationships are obtained in a consistent and natural way. We also extend the study to the non-extensive grand canonical ensemble theory and obtain the q-deformed Bose-Einstein distribution as well as the q-deformed Fermi-Dirac distribution. The theory is further applied to the generalized Planck law to demonstrate the distinct behaviors of the various generalized q-distribution functions discussed in literature.

  4. Detection of eardrum abnormalities using ensemble deep learning approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senaras, Caglar; Moberly, Aaron C.; Teknos, Theodoros; Essig, Garth; Elmaraghy, Charles; Taj-Schaal, Nazhat; Yua, Lianbo; Gurcan, Metin N.

    2018-02-01

    In this study, we proposed an approach to report the condition of the eardrum as "normal" or "abnormal" by ensembling two different deep learning architectures. In the first network (Network 1), we applied transfer learning to the Inception V3 network by using 409 labeled samples. As a second network (Network 2), we designed a convolutional neural network to take advantage of auto-encoders by using additional 673 unlabeled eardrum samples. The individual classification accuracies of the Network 1 and Network 2 were calculated as 84.4%(+/- 12.1%) and 82.6% (+/- 11.3%), respectively. Only 32% of the errors of the two networks were the same, making it possible to combine two approaches to achieve better classification accuracy. The proposed ensemble method allows us to achieve robust classification because it has high accuracy (84.4%) with the lowest standard deviation (+/- 10.3%).

  5. Insulin resistance and carotid intima-media thickness mediate the association between resting-state heart rate variability and executive function: A path modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew H; López, Santiago Rodríguez; Passos, Valeria M A; Bittencourt, Marcio S; Dantas, Eduardo M; Mill, José G; Ribeiro, Antonio L P; Thayer, Julian F; Bensenor, Isabela M; Lotufo, Paulo A

    2016-05-01

    Research has linked high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV) to cognitive function. The present study adopts a modern path modelling approach to understand potential causal pathways that may underpin this relationship. Here we examine the association between resting-state HF-HRV and executive function in a large sample of civil servants from Brazil (N=8114) recruited for the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). HF-HRV was calculated from 10-min resting-state electrocardiograms. Executive function was assessed using the trail-making test (version B). Insulin resistance (a marker of type 2 diabetes mellitus) and carotid intima-media thickness (subclinical atherosclerosis) mediated the relationship between HRV and executive function in seriatim. A limitation of the present study is its cross-sectional design; therefore, conclusions must be confirmed in longitudinal study. Nevertheless, findings support that possibility that HRV provides a 'spark' that initiates a cascade of adverse downstream effects that subsequently leads to cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Genetic variability, path-coefficient and correlation studies in twenty elite bread-wheat (triticum aestivum L.) lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mujahid, M.Y.; Asif, M.; Ahmad, I.; Kisana, N.A.; Ahmad, Z.; Asim, M.

    2005-01-01

    Twenty bread-wheat elite lines of diverse origin, developed by various research institutes in the country, were tested and evaluated at National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) under optimum irrigated conditions. Significant variation was observed for all the traits studied viz: days to heading, days to maturity, kernel weight, test weight and grain yield. Genotypic and phenotypic correlations were computed and the direct and indirect contributions of each trait towards grain-yield were determined. Grain-yield showed significant association with test weight and kernel weight. Direct positive effects of kernel weight and test weight towards grain-yield suggest the effectiveness of these traits to select and identify the desirable wheat- genotypes for a target environment. (author)

  7. A Prediction Study of Path Loss Models from 2-73.5 GHz in an Urban-Macro Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomas, Timothy; Rybakowski, Marcin; Sun, Shu

    2016-01-01

    can roughly be broken into two categories, ones that have some anchor in physics, and ones that curve-match only over the data set without any physical anchor. In this paper we use both real-world measurements from 2.0 to 28 GHz and ray-tracing studies from 2.0 to 73.5 GHz, both in an urban-macro...... environment, to assess the prediction performance of the two PL modeling techniques. In other words we look at how the two different PL modeling techniques perform when the PL model is applied to a prediction set which is different in distance, frequency, or environment from a measurement set where...

  8. Rocket Flight Path

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Waters

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This project uses Newton’s Second Law of Motion, Euler’s method, basic physics, and basic calculus to model the flight path of a rocket. From this, one can find the height and velocity at any point from launch to the maximum altitude, or apogee. This can then be compared to the actual values to see if the method of estimation is a plausible. The rocket used for this project is modeled after Bullistic-1 which was launched by the Society of Aeronautics and Rocketry at the University of South Florida.

  9. JAVA PathFinder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehhtz, Peter

    2005-01-01

    JPF is an explicit state software model checker for Java bytecode. Today, JPF is a swiss army knife for all sort of runtime based verification purposes. This basically means JPF is a Java virtual machine that executes your program not just once (like a normal VM), but theoretically in all possible ways, checking for property violations like deadlocks or unhandled exceptions along all potential execution paths. If it finds an error, JPF reports the whole execution that leads to it. Unlike a normal debugger, JPF keeps track of every step how it got to the defect.

  10. Path to Prosperity

    OpenAIRE

    Wolfowitz,Paul

    2006-01-01

    Paul Wolfowitz, President of the World Bank, discussed Singapore's remarkable progress along the road from poverty to prosperity which has also been discovered by many other countries in East Asia and around the world. He spoke of how each country must find its own path for people to pursue the same dreams of the chance to go to school, the security of a good job, and the ability to provide a better future for their children. Throughout the world, and importantly in the developing world, ther...

  11. A quantum chemical study of the N2H+ + e- → N2 + H reaction I: The linear dissociation path

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talbi, D.

    2007-01-01

    A theoretical investigation of the dissociative recombination (DR) of linear N 2 H + (X 1 Σ g + ) to give N 2 + H has been undertaken because it is of interest for astrochemistry and also because it has been recently studied experimentally. Using state of the art quantum chemical methods, it is shown that the lowest 2 Σ repulsive state of N 2 H leading to the N 2 and H fragments in their ground electronic states does not cross the curve of the ion nor the one of the lowest N 2 H Rydberg state. This lowest 2 Σ repulsive state is very low in energy. Its curve passes below the 1 Σ N 2 H + state and below the lowest bound 2 Σ N 2 H states. However, it is also shown that there exist higher repulsive 2 Σ and 2 Δ states of N 2 H (the second and third repulsive states) crossing the ion curve. These states will lead to the formation of N 2 in its 3 Σ u + and 3 Δ u states. This study, the first of its type, shows that the DR of linear N 2 H + should involve the direct mechanism and that it should lead to N 2 in its first excited states. However this process may not be efficient for N 2 H + in its ground vibrational state (v = 0), a state in which it exists in the cold environment of the interstellar medium. For the DR to be efficient for N 2 H + in its ground v = 0 vibrational state, bent geometries of the ion might have to be considered

  12. Space charge models and PATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wald, H.B.

    1990-01-01

    The 'PATH' codes are used to design magnetic optics subsystems for neutral particle beam systems. They include a 2-1/2D and three 3-D space charge models, two of which have recently been added. This paper describes the 3-D models and reports on preliminary benchmark studies in which these models are checked for stability as the cloud size is varied and for consistency with each other. Differences between the models are investigated and the computer time requirements for running these models are established

  13. Path Creation, Path Dependence and Breaking Away from the Path

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Jens Erik; Hedman, Jonas; Tuunainen, Virpi Kristiina

    2016-01-01

    The explanation of how and why firms succeed or fail is a recurrent research challenge. This is particularly important in the context of technological innovations. We focus on the role of historical events and decisions in explaining such success and failure. Using a case study of Nokia, we devel...

  14. Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.

    2017-12-01

    Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.

  15. Experimental and Model Studies on Loading Path-Dependent and Nonlinear Gas Flow Behavior in Shale Fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Honglian; Lu, Yiyu; Zhou, Lei; Tang, Jiren; Han, Shuaibin; Ao, Xiang

    2018-01-01

    Interest in shale gas as an energy source is growing worldwide. Because the rock's natural fracture system can contribute to gas production, it is important to understand the flow behavior of natural fractures in shale. Previous studies on the flow characteristics in shale fractures were limited and did not consider the effect of nonlinearity. To understand the basic mechanics of the gas flow behavior in shale fractures, laboratory investigations with consideration of the fluid pressure gradient, the confining stress, the loading history and the fracture geometry were conducted in this paper. Izbash's equation was used to analyze the nonlinearity of the flow. The results show that the behavior of the friction factors is similar to that shown in flow tests in smooth and rough pipes. The increase of the confining stress and the irreversible damage to the shale decreased the hydraulic aperture and increased the relative roughness. Thus, turbulent flow could appear at a low Reynolds number, resulting in a significant pressure loss. The limits of the cubic law and the existing correction factor for transmissivity are discussed. It is found that the previous friction models overestimate the friction factor in the laminar regime and underestimate the friction factor in the turbulent regime. For this reason, a new friction model based on a linear combination of the Reynolds number and the relative roughness was developed.

  16. Path to Impact for Autonomous Field Deployable Chemical Sensors: A Case Study of in Situ Nitrite Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schierenbeck, Tim M; Smith, Matthew C

    2017-05-02

    Natural freshwater systems have been severely affected by excess loading of macronutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) from fertilizers, fossil fuels, and human and livestock waste. In the USA, impacts to drinking water quality, biogeochemical cycles, and aquatic ecosystems are estimated to cost US$210 billion annually. Field-deployable nutrient sensors (FDS) offer potential to support research and resource management efforts by acquiring higher resolution data than are currently supported by expensive conventional sampling methods. Following nearly 40 years of research and development, FDS instruments are now starting to penetrate commercial markets. However, instrument uncertainty factors (high cost, reliability, accuracy, and precision) are key drivers impeding the uptake of FDS by the majority of users. Using nitrite sensors as a case study, we review the trends, opportunities, and challenges in producing and implementing FDS from a perspective of innovation and impact. We characterize the user community and consumer needs, identify trends in research approaches, tabulate state-of-the-art examples and specifications, and discuss data life cycle considerations. With further development of FDS through prototyping and testing in real-world applications, these tools can deliver information for protecting and restoring natural waters, enhancing process control for industrial operations and water treatment, and providing novel research insights.

  17. Socioeconomic status, anthropometric status, and psychomotor development of Kenyan children from resource-limited settings: a path-analytic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, Amina; Van de Vijver, Fons; Van Baar, Anneloes; Mbonani, Leonard; Kalu, Raphael; Newton, Charles; Holding, Penny

    2008-09-01

    Sub-optimal physical growth has been suggested as a key pathway between the effect of environmental risk and developmental outcome. To determine if anthropometric status mediates the relation between socioeconomic status and psychomotor development of young children in resource-limited settings. A cross-sectional study design was used. A total of 204 (105 girls) children from two resource-limited communities in the Coast Province, Kenya. The mean age of these children was 29 months (SD = 3.43; range: 24-35 months). Psychomotor functioning was assessed using a locally developed and validated measure, the Kilifi Developmental Inventory. A significant association was found between anthropometric status (as measured by weight-for-age, height-for-age, mid-upper arm circumference, and head circumference) and psychomotor functioning and also between socioeconomic status and anthropometric status; no direct effects were found between socioeconomic status and developmental outcome. The models showed that weight, height and to a lesser extent mid-upper arm circumference mediate the relation between socioeconomic status and developmental outcome, while head circumference did not show the same effect. Among children under 3 years living in poverty, anthropometric status shows a clear association with psychomotor development while socioeconomic status may only have an indirect association.

  18. Ensemble forecasting of potential habitat for three invasive fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, Helen M.; Chernoff, Barry; Fuller, Pam L.; Butman, David

    2012-01-01

    Aquatic invasive species pose major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide via displacement, predation, or hybridization with native species and the alteration of aquatic habitats and hydrologic cycles. Modeling the habitat suitability of alien aquatic species through spatially explicit mapping is an increasingly important risk assessment tool. Habitat modeling also facilitates identification of key environmental variables influencing invasive species distributions. We compared four modeling methods to predict the potential continental United States distributions of northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842), round goby Neogobius melanostomus (Pallas, 1814), and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (Valenciennes, 1844) using maximum entropy (Maxent), the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), DOMAIN, and support vector machines (SVM). We used inventory records from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database and a geographic information system of 20 climatic and environmental variables to generate individual and ensemble distribution maps for each species. The ensemble maps from our study performed as well as or better than all of the individual models except Maxent. The ensemble and Maxent models produced significantly higher accuracy individual maps than GARP, one-class SVMs, or DOMAIN. The key environmental predictor variables in the individual models were consistent with the tolerances of each species. Results from this study provide insights into which locations and environmental conditions may promote the future spread of invasive fish in the US.

  19. Understanding ensemble protein folding at atomic detail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, Stefan; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

    2008-01-01

    Although far from routine, simulating the folding of specific short protein chains on the computer, at a detailed atomic level, is starting to become a reality. This remarkable progress, which has been made over the last decade or so, allows a fundamental aspect of the protein folding process to be addressed, namely its statistical nature. In order to make quantitative comparisons with experimental kinetic data a complete ensemble view of folding must be achieved, with key observables averaged over the large number of microscopically different folding trajectories available to a protein chain. Here we review recent advances in atomic-level protein folding simulations and the new insight provided by them into the protein folding process. An important element in understanding ensemble folding kinetics are methods for analyzing many separate folding trajectories, and we discuss techniques developed to condense the large amount of information contained in an ensemble of trajectories into a manageable picture of the folding process. (topical review)

  20. Lattice gauge theory in the microcanonical ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, D.J.E.; Rahman, A.

    1983-01-01

    The microcanonical-ensemble formulation of lattice gauge theory proposed recently is examined in detail. Expectation values in this new ensemble are determined by solving a large set of coupled ordinary differential equations, after the fashion of a molecular dynamics simulation. Following a brief review of the microcanonical ensemble, calculations are performed for the gauge groups U(1), SU(2), and SU(3). The results are compared and contrasted with standard methods of computation. Several advantages of the new formalism are noted. For example, no random numbers are required to update the system. Also, this update is performed in a simultaneous fashion. Thus the microcanonical method presumably adapts well to parallel processing techniques, especially when the p action is highly nonlocal (such as when fermions are included)