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Sample records for partial credit model

  1. Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhelst, N. D.; Verstralen, H. H. F. M.

    2008-01-01

    The Partial Credit Model (PCM) is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as difficulties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justified. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary…

  2. Testing the generalized partial credit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1996-01-01

    The partial credit model (PCM) (G.N. Masters, 1982) can be viewed as a generalization of the Rasch model for dichotomous items to the case of polytomous items. In many cases, the PCM is too restrictive to fit the data. Several generalizations of the PCM have been proposed. In this paper, a

  3. Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    H.H.F.M. Verstralen; N.D. Verhelst

    2008-01-01

    The Partial Credit Model (PCM) is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as di culties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justi ed. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary responses which are not supposed to be stochastically independent. As a practical result, a statistical test of sto...

  4. Response Styles in the Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Tutz, Gerhard; Schauberger, Gunther; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    In the modelling of ordinal responses in psychological measurement and survey- based research, response styles that represent specific answering patterns of respondents are typically ignored. One consequence is that estimates of item parameters can be poor and considerably biased. The focus here is on the modelling of a tendency to extreme or middle categories. An extension of the Partial Credit Model is proposed that explicitly accounts for this specific response style. In contrast to exi...

  5. Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.H.F.M. Verstralen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The Partial Credit Model (PCM is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as di culties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justi ed. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary responses which are not supposed to be stochastically independent. As a practical result, a statistical test of stochastic independence in the Rasch model is derived

  6. Testing the generalized partial credit model

    OpenAIRE

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1996-01-01

    The partial credit model (PCM) (G.N. Masters, 1982) can be viewed as a generalization of the Rasch model for dichotomous items to the case of polytomous items. In many cases, the PCM is too restrictive to fit the data. Several generalizations of the PCM have been proposed. In this paper, a generalization of the PCM (GPCM), a further generalization of the one-parameter logistic model, is discussed. The model is defined and the conditional maximum likelihood procedure for the method is describe...

  7. Partially Observed Mixtures of IRT Models: An Extension of the Generalized Partial-Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Davier, Matthias; Yamamoto, Kentaro

    2004-01-01

    The generalized partial-credit model (GPCM) is used frequently in educational testing and in large-scale assessments for analyzing polytomous data. Special cases of the generalized partial-credit model are the partial-credit model--or Rasch model for ordinal data--and the two parameter logistic (2PL) model. This article extends the GPCM to the…

  8. A Generalized Partial Credit Model: Application of an EM Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muraki, Eiji

    1992-01-01

    The partial credit model with a varying slope parameter is developed and called the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). Analysis results for simulated data by this and other polytomous item-response models demonstrate that the rating formulation of the GPCM is adaptable to the analysis of polytomous item responses. (SLD)

  9. Fitting and Testing Conditional Multinormal Partial Credit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessen, David J.

    2012-01-01

    A multinormal partial credit model for factor analysis of polytomously scored items with ordered response categories is derived using an extension of the Dutch Identity (Holland in "Psychometrika" 55:5-18, 1990). In the model, latent variables are assumed to have a multivariate normal distribution conditional on unweighted sums of item…

  10. Understanding Rasch Measurement: Partial Credit Model and Pivot Anchoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Rita K.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Rasch measurement partial credit model, what it is, how it differs from other Rasch models, and when and how to use it. Also describes the calibration of instruments with increasingly complex items. Explains pivot anchoring and illustrates its use and describes the effect of pivot anchoring on step calibrations, item hierarchy, and…

  11. Detecting Math Anxiety with a Mixture Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ölmez, Ibrahim Burak; Cohen, Allan S.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate a new methodology for detection of differences in middle grades students' math anxiety. A mixture partial credit model analysis revealed two distinct latent classes based on homogeneities in response patterns within each latent class. Students in Class 1 had less anxiety about apprehension of math…

  12. Optimal Designs for the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Bürkner, Paul-Christian; Schwabe, Rainer; Holling, Heinz

    2018-01-01

    Analyzing ordinal data becomes increasingly important in psychology, especially in the context of item response theory. The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is probably the most widely used ordinal model and finds application in many large scale educational assessment studies such as PISA. In the present paper, optimal test designs are investigated for estimating persons' abilities with the GPCM for calibrated tests when item parameters are known from previous studies. We will derive t...

  13. Stepwise Analysis of Differential Item Functioning Based on Multiple-Group Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muraki, Eiji

    1999-01-01

    Extended an Item Response Theory (IRT) method for detection of differential item functioning to the partial credit model and applied the method to simulated data using a stepwise procedure. Then applied the stepwise DIF analysis based on the multiple-group partial credit model to writing trend data from the National Assessment of Educational…

  14. An Extension of the Partial Credit Model with an Application to the Measurement of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Gerhard H.; Ponocny, Ivo

    1994-01-01

    An extension to the partial credit model, the linear partial credit model, is considered under the assumption of a certain linear decomposition of the item x category parameters into basic parameters. A conditional maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating basic parameters is presented and illustrated with simulation and an empirical study. (SLD)

  15. An Introduction to the Partial Credit Model for Developing Nursing Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Christine

    1999-01-01

    Demonstrates how the partial credit model, a variation of the Rasch Measurement Model, can be used to develop performance-based assessments for nursing education. Applies the model using the Practical Knowledge Inventory for Nurses. (SK)

  16. A Model Fit Statistic for Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Tie; Wells, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    Investigating the fit of a parametric model is an important part of the measurement process when implementing item response theory (IRT), but research examining it is limited. A general nonparametric approach for detecting model misfit, introduced by J. Douglas and A. S. Cohen (2001), has exhibited promising results for the two-parameter logistic…

  17. A Comparison of Graded Response and Rasch Partial Credit Models with Subjective Well-Being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, John G.; Rounds, James B.; Zevon, Michael A.

    2000-01-01

    Compared two multiple category item response theory models using a data set of 52 mood terms with 713 undergraduate psychology students. Comparative model fit for the Samejima (F. Samejima, 1966) logistic model for graded responses and the Masters (G. Masters, 1982) partial credit model favored the former model for this data set. (SLD)

  18. MODEL PENSKORAN PARTIAL CREDIT PADA BUTIR MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BIDANG FISIKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasis Wasis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tujuan penelitian ini menghasilkan model penskoran politomus untuk respons butir multiple true-false, sehingga dapat mengestimasi secara lebih akurat kemampuan di bidang fisika. Pengembangan penskoran menggunakan Four-D model dan diuji akurasinya melalui penelitian empiris dan simulasi. Penelitian empiris menggunakan 15 butir multiple true-false yang diambil dari soal UMPTN tahun 1996-2006 dan dikenakan pada 410 mahasiswa baru FMIPA Universitas Negeri Surabaya angkatan tahun 2007. Respons peserta tes diskor dengan tiga model partial credit (PCM I; II; dan III dan secara dikotomus. Hasil penskoran dianalisis dengan program Quest untuk mendapat-kan estimasi tingkat kesukaran butir (δ dan estimasi ke-mampuan peserta (θ untuk menentukan nilai fungsi informasi tes dan kesalahan baku estimasi. Penelitian simulasi mengguna-kan data bangkitan berdasarkan parameter empiris (δ dan θ memakai program statistik SAS dan akurasi estimasinya di-analisis dengan metode root mean squared error (RMSE. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan: (i Penskoran PCM dengan pem-bobotan mampu mengestimasi kemampuan lebih akurat di-bandingkan tanpa pembobotan maupun secara dikotomus; (ii Semakin banyak jumlah kategori dalam penskoran partial credit, semakin akurat. Kata kunci: model penskoran partial credit, butir multiple true-false ____________________________________________________________ THE PARTIAL CREDIT SCORING MODEL FOR THE MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BUTIRS IN PHYSICS Abstract This study is an attempt to overcome the weaknesses. This study aims to produce a polytomous scoring model for responses to multiple true-false butirs in order to get a more accurate estimation of abilities in physics. It adopts the Four-D model and its accuracy is assessed through empirical and simulation studies. The empirical study employed 15 multiple true-false butirs taken from the New Students Entrance Test of State University the year of 1996–2006. It administered to 410 new students enrolled

  19. An isotonic partial credit model for ordering subjects on the basis of their sum scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligtvoet, R.

    2012-01-01

    In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable.

  20. A Comparison of Item Exposure Control Procedures with the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Edgar Isaac

    2008-01-01

    To enhance test security of high stakes tests, it is vital to understand the way various exposure control strategies function under various IRT models. To that end the present dissertation focused on the performance of several exposure control strategies under the generalized partial credit model with an item pool of 100 and 200 items. These…

  1. Methods for Assessing Item, Step, and Threshold Invariance in Polytomous Items Following the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfield, Randall D.; Myers, Nicholas D.; Wolfe, Edward W.

    2008-01-01

    Measurement invariance in the partial credit model (PCM) can be conceptualized in several different but compatible ways. In this article the authors distinguish between three forms of measurement invariance in the PCM: step invariance, item invariance, and threshold invariance. Approaches for modeling these three forms of invariance are proposed,…

  2. An Isotonic Partial Credit Model for Ordering Subjects on the Basis of Their Sum Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligtvoet, Rudy

    2012-01-01

    In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable. However, the PCM is very restrictive with respect…

  3. Parent Ratings of ADHD Symptoms: Generalized Partial Credit Model Analysis of Differential Item Functioning across Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Rapson

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Generalized partial credit model, which is based on item response theory (IRT), was used to test differential item functioning (DIF) for the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.), inattention (IA), and hyperactivity/impulsivity (HI) symptoms across boys and girls. Method: To accomplish this, parents completed…

  4. Applying a Weighted Maximum Likelihood Latent Trait Estimator to the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfield, Randall D.; Bergeron, Jennifer M.

    2005-01-01

    This article applies a weighted maximum likelihood (WML) latent trait estimator to the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). The relevant equations required to obtain the WML estimator using the Newton-Raphson algorithm are presented, and a simulation study is described that compared the properties of the WML estimator to those of the maximum…

  5. On the Existence and Uniqueness of JML Estimates for the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoli-Barsotti, Lucio

    2005-01-01

    A necessary and sufficient condition is given in this paper for the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood (the so-called joint maximum likelihood) estimate of the parameters of the Partial Credit Model. This condition is stated in terms of a structural property of the pattern of the data matrix that can be easily verified on the basis…

  6. Strategies for Controlling Item Exposure in Computerized Adaptive Testing with the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Laurie Laughlin

    2004-01-01

    Choosing a strategy for controlling item exposure has become an integral part of test development for computerized adaptive testing (CAT). This study investigated the performance of six procedures for controlling item exposure in a series of simulated CATs under the generalized partial credit model. In addition to a no-exposure control baseline…

  7. Exploring Alternative Characteristic Curve Approaches to Linking Parameter Estimates from the Generalized Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James S.; Bao, Han; Huang, Chun-Wei; Gagne, Phill

    Characteristic curve approaches for linking parameters from the generalized partial credit model were examined for cases in which common (anchor) items are calibrated separately in two groups. Three of these approaches are simple extensions of the test characteristic curve (TCC), item characteristic curve (ICC), and operating characteristic curve…

  8. The Dif Identification in Constructed Response Items Using Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Heri Retnawati

    2017-01-01

    The study was to identify the load, the type and the significance of differential item functioning (DIF) in constructed response item using the partial credit model (PCM). The data in the study were the students’ instruments and the students’ responses toward the PISA-like test items that had been completed by 386 ninth grade students and 460 tenth grade students who had been about 15 years old in the Province of Yogyakarta Special Region in Indonesia. The analysis toward the item characteris...

  9. Rasch-Master's Partial Credit Model in the assessment of children's creativity in drawings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Tatiana de Cássia; Primi, Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to use the Partial Credit Model to study the factors of the Test of Creativity in Children and identify which characteristics of the creative person would be more effective to differentiate subjects according to their ability level. A sample of 1426 students from first to eighth grades answered the instrument. The Partial Credits model was used to estimate the ability of the subjects and item difficulties on a common scale for each of the four factors, indicating which items required a higher level of creativity to be scored and will differentiate the more creative individuals. The results demonstrated that the greater part of the characteristics showed good fit indices, with values between 0.80 and 1.30 both infit and outfit, indicating a response pattern consistent with the model. The characteristics of Unusual Perspective, Expression of Emotion and Originality have been identified as better predictors of creative performance because requires greater ability level (usually above two standard deviation). These results may be used in the future development of an instrument's reduced form or simplification of the current correction model.

  10. A Multidimensional Partial Credit Model with Associated Item and Test Statistics: An Application to Mixed-Format Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Lihua; Schwarz, Richard D.

    2006-01-01

    Multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed for better understanding the dimensional structure of data or to define diagnostic profiles of student learning. A compensatory multidimensional two-parameter partial credit model (M-2PPC) for constructed-response items is presented that is a generalization of those proposed to…

  11. A Study of Reverse-Worded Matched Item Pairs Using the Generalized Partial Credit and Nominal Response Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlock Cole, Ki Lynn; Turner, Ronna C.; Gitchel, W. Dent

    2018-01-01

    The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is often used for polytomous data; however, the nominal response model (NRM) allows for the investigation of how adjacent categories may discriminate differently when items are positively or negatively worded. Ten items from three different self-reported scales were used (anxiety, depression, and…

  12. On Partial Defaults in Portfolio Credit Risk : A Poisson Mixture Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Weißbach, Rafael; von Lieres und Wilkau, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    Most credit portfolio models exclusively calculate the loss distribution for a portfolio of performing counterparts. Conservative default definitions cause considerable insecurity about the loss for a long time after the default. We present three approaches to account for defaulted counterparts in the calculation of the economic capital. Two of the approaches are based on the Poisson mixture model CreditRisk+ and derive a loss distribution for an integrated portfolio. The third method treats ...

  13. Measurement of Online Student Engagement: Utilization of Continuous Online Student Behavior Indicators as Items in a Partial Credit Rasch Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    Student engagement has been shown to be essential to the development of research-based best practices for K-12 education. It has been defined and measured in numerous ways. The purpose of this research study was to develop a measure of online student engagement for grades 3 through 8 using a partial credit Rasch model and validate the measure…

  14. An Examination of Exposure Control and Content Balancing Restrictions on Item Selection in CATs Using the Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Laurie Laughlin; Pastor, Dena A.; Dodd, Barbara G.; Chiang, Claire; Fitzpatrick, Steven J.

    2003-01-01

    Examined the effectiveness of the Sympson-Hetter technique and rotated content balancing relative to no exposure control and no content rotation conditions in a computerized adaptive testing system based on the partial credit model. Simulation results show the Sympson-Hetter technique can be used with minimal impact on measurement precision,…

  15. Comparison of Exposure Controls, Item Pool Characteristics, and Population Distributions for CAT Using the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, HwaYoung; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated item exposure control procedures under various combinations of item pool characteristics and ability distributions in computerized adaptive testing based on the partial credit model. Three variables were manipulated: item pool characteristics (120 items for each of easy, medium, and hard item pools), two ability…

  16. A Comparison of Item Selection Techniques and Exposure Control Mechanisms in CATs Using the Generalized Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor, Dena A.; Dodd, Barbara G.; Chang, Hua-Hua

    2002-01-01

    Studied the impact of using five different exposure control algorithms in two sizes of item pool calibrated using the generalized partial credit model. Simulation results show that the a-stratified design, in comparison to a no-exposure control condition, could be used to reduce item exposure and overlap and increase pool use, while degrading…

  17. The Dif Identification in Constructed Response Items Using Partial Credit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heri Retnawati

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study was to identify the load, the type and the significance of differential item functioning (DIF in constructed response item using the partial credit model (PCM. The data in the study were the students’ instruments and the students’ responses toward the PISA-like test items that had been completed by 386 ninth grade students and 460 tenth grade students who had been about 15 years old in the Province of Yogyakarta Special Region in Indonesia. The analysis toward the item characteristics through the student categorization based on their class was conducted toward the PCM using CONQUEST software. Furthermore, by applying these items characteristics, the researcher draw the category response function (CRF graphic in order to identify whether the type of DIF content had been in uniform or non-uniform. The significance of DIF was identified by comparing the discrepancy between the difficulty level parameter and the error in the CONQUEST output results. The results of the analysis showed that from 18 items that had been analyzed there were 4 items which had not been identified load DIF, there were 5 items that had been identified containing DIF but not statistically significant and there were 9 items that had been identified containing DIF significantly. The causes of items containing DIF were discussed.

  18. Ordering policies of a deteriorating item in an EOQ model with backorder under two-level partial trade credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molamohamadi, Zohreh; Arshizadeh, Rahman; Ismail, Napsiah

    2015-05-01

    In the classical inventory model, it was assumed that the retailer must settle the accounts of the purchased items as soon as they are received. In practice, however, the supplier usually offers a full or partial delay period to the retailer to pay for the amount of the purchasing costs. In the partial trade credit contract, which is mostly applied to avoid non-payment risks, the retailer must pay for a portion of the purchased goods at the time of ordering and may delay settling the rest until the end of the predefined agreed upon period, so-called credit period. This paper assumes a two-level partial trade credit where both supplier and retailer offer a partial trade credit to their downstream members. The objective here is to determine the retailer's ordering policy of a deteriorating item by formulating his economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory system with backorder as a cost minimization problem. The sensitivity of the variables on different parameters has been also analyzed by applying numerical examples.

  19. Penskalaan Butir Format Respons Pilihan dan Respons Bebas Berdasarkan Model Rasch dan Partial Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Hariadi

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian melihat pengaruh jumlah parameter butir, kategori respons bebas (RB, pengaruh sampel terhadap akurasi estimasi parameter kemampuan untuk menghasilkan estimasi yang stabil dan pengaruh pembobotan butir RP dan butir RB terhadap kesalahan baku. Penelitian dalam dua tahap, simulasi menggunakan 30 kondisi dengan replikasi 50 dengan variabel panjang tes, jumlah kategori, dan jumlah parameter butir, dan analisis deskriptif, dilanjutkan penerapan penskalaan gabungan butir tipe respons pilihan (rp dan butir respons bebas (rb pada konstruksi tes elektronika yang terdiri 40 butir pilihan ganda dan 4 butir jawaban tersusun, 3 butir memiliki lima kategori jawaban dan 1 butir dengan 4 kategori jawaban, melibatkan 355 siswa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan: ukuran sampel kurang berpengaruh pada root mean square error atau (RSME> dan korelasi antara 9 dengan 0, namun berpengaruh terhadap akurasi estimasi parameter butir pilihan ganda (/>/y,dan parameter butir respons tersusun (3^- Jumlah parameter butir berpengaruh terhadap parameter kemampuan, tetapi tidak berpengaruh terhadap akurasi dari b^, dan S„,. Estimasi dari parameter tingkat kesulitan butir jawaban tersusun tiga kategori lebih akurat daripada butir jawaban tersusun lima kategori. Estimasi tahan {robust untuk parameter kesulitan butir jawaban tersusun 5 kategori memerlukan sampel minimal 250 responden, sedangkan untuk butir respons tersusun 3 kategori memerlukan sampel minimal 100 responden. Estimasi parameter kemampuan dari skor total (0^^ tidak sama dengan rata-rata jumlah tbeta dari masing-masing subtes (0^ + 0CR. Theta dari tes yang dikalibrasi bersama-sama berbeda dengan theta dari total subtes yang dikalibrasi secara terpisah. Korelasi kemampuan yang mengunakan pembobotan dan kemampuan tanpa pembobotan mempunyai suatu rentang dari 0,988 sampai 0,948. Kata kunci: penyekaiaan, model rash dan partial credit.

  20. Application of Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach in an economic production quantity model with partial trade credit policy under fuzzy environment

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    Pinki Majumder

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this present study, a production inventory model with partial trade credit is formulated and solved in fuzzy environment via Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach. To capture the market, a supplier offers a trade credit period to its retailers. Due to this facility, retailer also offers a partial trade credit period to his/her customer to boost the demand of the item. In practical life situation, demands are generally dependent upon time. Constant demand of an item varies time to time. In this vague situation, demands are taken as time dependent, where its constant part is taken as Left Right - type fuzzy number. In this paper, Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach is used to solve the fuzzy inventory model. Four different cases are considered by using Generalized Hukuhara-(i differentiability and Generalized Hukuhara-(ii differentiability. The objective of this paper is to find out the optimal time so as the total inventory cost is minimum. Finally the model is solved by generalized reduced gradient method. The proposed model and technique are illustrated by numerical examples. Some sensitivity analyses both in tabular and graphical forms are presented and the effects of minimum cost with respect to various inventory parameters are discussed.

  1. An EOQ model of time quadratic and inventory dependent demand for deteriorated items with partially backlogged shortages under trade credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar; Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema

    2017-07-01

    In this paper a single buyer, single supplier inventory model with time quadratic and stock dependent demand for a finite planning horizon has been studied. Single deteriorating item which suffers shortage, with partial backlogging and some lost sales is considered. Model is divided into two scenarios, one with non permissible delay in payment and other with permissible delay in payment. Latter is called, centralized system, where supplier offers trade credit to retailer. In the centralized system cost saving is shared amongst the two. The objective is to study the difference in minimum costs borne by retailer and supplier, under two scenarios including the above mentioned parameters. To obtain optimal solution of the problem the model is solved analytically. Numerical example and a comparative study are then discussed supported by sensitivity analysis of each parameter.

  2. Item and response-category functioning of the Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27: Rasch partial credit model

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    Jafari Peyman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of the study was to determine whether the Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27 has the optimal number of response category to measure health-related quality of life (HRQoL in children and adolescents. Moreover, we aimed to determine if all the items contributed adequately to their own domain. Findings The Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27 was completed by 1083 school children and 1070 of their parents. The Rasch partial credit model (PCM was used to investigate item statistics and ordering of response categories. The PCM showed that no item was misfitting. The PCM also revealed that, successive response categories for all items were located in the expected order except for category 1 in self- and proxy-reports. Conclusions Although Rasch analysis confirms that all the items belong to their own underlying construct, response categories should be reorganized and evaluated in further studies, especially in children with chronic conditions.

  3. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  4. MODEL PENSKORAN PARTIAL CREDIT PADA BUTIR MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BIDANG FISIKA

    OpenAIRE

    Wasis Wasis

    2013-01-01

    Tujuan penelitian ini menghasilkan model penskoran politomus untuk respons butir multiple true-false, sehingga dapat mengestimasi secara lebih akurat kemampuan di bidang fisika. Pengembangan penskoran menggunakan Four-D model dan diuji akurasinya melalui penelitian empiris dan simulasi. Penelitian empiris menggunakan 15 butir multiple true-false yang diambil dari soal UMPTN tahun 1996-2006 dan dikenakan pada 410 mahasiswa baru FMIPA Universitas Negeri Surabaya angkatan tahun 2007. Respons pes...

  5. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  6. A credit policy approach in a two-warehouse inventory model for deteriorating items with price- and stock-dependent demand under partial backlogging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Gobinda Chandra; Khan, Md. Al-Amin; Shaikh, Ali Akbar

    2018-04-01

    Advertisement of the product is an important factor in inventory analysis. Also, price and stock have an important role to attract more customers in the competitive business situations. Trade credit policy is another important role in inventory analysis. We have combined these three factors together in a two-warehouse inventory model and represented it mathematically. In addition, we have added deteriorating factor of our proposed problem with price- and stock-dependent demand under partial backlogged shortage and solved. The frequency of advertisement is considered constant for a year in this paper. The proposed model is highly nonlinear in nature. Due to highly nonlinearity, we could not find the closed form solution. In this paper, trade credit facility is taken in the perspective of retailer, and all the possible cases and subcases of the model are discussed and solved using lingo 10.0 software. The results of sensitivity analysis prove the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  7. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  8. Using R and WinBUGS to fit a generalized partial credit model for developing and evaluating patient-reported outcomes assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuelin; Baser, Ray

    2012-08-15

    The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced the final guidelines on the development and validation of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assessments in drug labeling and clinical trials. This guidance paper may boost the demand for new PRO survey questionnaires. Henceforth, biostatisticians may encounter psychometric methods more frequently, particularly item response theory (IRT) models to guide the shortening of a PRO assessment instrument. This article aims to provide an introduction on the theory and practical analytic skills in fitting a generalized partial credit model (GPCM) in IRT. GPCM theory is explained first, with special attention to a clearer exposition of the formal mathematics than what is typically available in the psychometric literature. Then, a worked example is presented, using self-reported responses taken from the international personality item pool. The worked example contains step-by-step guides on using the statistical languages r and WinBUGS in fitting the GPCM. Finally, the Fisher information function of the GPCM model is derived and used to evaluate, as an illustrative example, the usefulness of assessment items by their information contents. This article aims to encourage biostatisticians to apply IRT models in the re-analysis of existing data and in future research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Measuring positive and negative affect in older adults over 56 days: comparing trait level scoring methods using the partial credit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbacher, Monica K; Schmidt, Karen M; Boker, Steven M; Bergeman, Cindy S

    2012-01-01

    Positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) are important constructs in health and well-being research. Good longitudinal measurement is crucial to conducting meaningful research on relationships between affect, health, and well-being across the lifespan. One common affect measure, the PANAS, has been evaluated thoroughly with factor analysis, but not with Racsh-based latent trait models (RLTMs) such as the Partial Credit Model (PCM), and not longitudinally. Current longitudinal RLTMs can computationally handle few occasions of data. The present study compares four methods of anchoring PCMs across 56 occasions to longitudinally evaluate the psychometric properties of the PANAS plus additional items. Anchoring item parameters on mean parameter values across occasions produced more desirable results than using no anchor, using first occasion parameters as anchors, or allowing anchor values to vary across occasions. Results indicated problems with NA items, including poor category utilization, gaps in the item distribution, and a lack of easy-to-endorse items. PA items had much more desirable psychometric qualities.

  10. A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting-Qiang Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

  11. An endogenous model of the credit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jianmin; Sui, Xin; Li, Shouwei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an endogenous credit network model of firm-bank agents is constructed. The model describes the endogenous formation of firm-firm, firm-bank and bank-bank credit relationships. By means of simulations, the model is capable of showing some obvious similarities with empirical evidence found by other scholars: the upper-tail of firm size distribution can be well fitted with a power-law; the bank size distribution can be lognormally distributed with a power-law tail; the bank in-degrees of the interbank credit network as well as the firm-bank credit network fall into two-power-law distributions.

  12. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  13. Two echelon partial trade credit financing in a supply chain derived algebraically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaggi Chandra K.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Trade credit financing has become a powerful tool to improve sales & profit in an industry. In general, a supplier/retailer frequently offers trade credit to its credit risk downstream member in order to stimulate their respective sales. This trade credit may either be full or partial depending upon the past profile of the downstream member. Partial trade credit may be offered by the supplier/retailer to their credit risk downstream member who must pay a portion of the purchase amount at the time of placing an order and then receives a permissible delay on the rest of the outstanding amount to avoid non-payment risks. The present study investigates the retailer’s inventory problem under partial trade credit financing for two echelon supply chain where the supplier, as well as the retailer, offers partial trade credit to the subsequent downstream member. An algebraic approach has been applied for finding the retailer’s optimal ordering policy under minimizing the annual total relevant cost. Results have been validated with the help of examples followed by comprehensive sensitivity analysis.

  14. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  15. Partially ordered models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, R.; Deveaux, V.

    2010-01-01

    We provide a formal definition and study the basic properties of partially ordered chains (POC). These systems were proposed to model textures in image processing and to represent independence relations between random variables in statistics (in the later case they are known as Bayesian networks).

  16. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  17. Partially composite Higgs models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alanne, Tommi; Buarque Franzosi, Diogo; Frandsen, Mads T.

    2018-01-01

    We study the phenomenology of partially composite-Higgs models where electroweak symmetry breaking is dynamically induced, and the Higgs is a mixture of a composite and an elementary state. The models considered have explicit realizations in terms of gauge-Yukawa theories with new strongly...... interacting fermions coupled to elementary scalars and allow for a very SM-like Higgs state. We study constraints on their parameter spaces from vacuum stability and perturbativity as well as from LHC results and find that requiring vacuum stability up to the compositeness scale already imposes relevant...... constraints. A small part of parameter space around the classically conformal limit is stable up to the Planck scale. This is however already strongly disfavored by LHC results. in different limits, the models realize both (partially) composite-Higgs and (bosonic) technicolor models and a dynamical extension...

  18. Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anisa Caja

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn; so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

  19. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  20. Statistical credit risk assessment model of small and very small enterprises for Lithuanian credit unions

    OpenAIRE

    Špicas, Renatas

    2017-01-01

    While functioning in accordance with the new, business and efficiency-oriented operating model, credit unions develop and begin functioning outside the community. It is universally recognised in scientific literature that as credit unions expand their activities beyond a community, social relations with credit union members weaken and the credit unions lose their social control element, which help them to better assess and manage information asymmetry and credit risk. So far, the analysis of ...

  1. Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 10 (2012), s. 1005-1023 ISSN 0013-3035 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : credit risk * mortgage * delinquency rate * generalized hyperbolic distribution * normal distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.194, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/smid-modeling a distribution of mortgage credit losses.pdf

  2. Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 23 (2010), s. 1-23 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova - GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Credit Risk * Mortgage * Delinquency Rate * Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution * Normal Distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/gapko-modeling a distribution of mortgage credit losses-ies wp.pdf

  3. Avaliação de atitudes de estudantes de psicologia via modelo de crédito parcial da TRI Assessment of psychology students' attitudes through credit partial model of IRT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudette Maria Medeiros Vendramini

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar as atitudes de estudantes de Psicologia em relação a estatística, via modelo de créditos parciais da TRI, e suas relações com a autopercepção e desempenho em estatística. Uma amostra não aleatória de 361 estudantes de Psicologia, com idades de 18 a 65 anos, 81% mulheres e 53% do noturno, respondeu a um questionário de identificação e uma escala de atitudes. A escala é do tipo likert de quatro pontos e composta de 20 itens que expressam os sentimentos em relação a estatística, sendo dez positivos e dez negativos, e um item complementar, que verifica a autopercepção do universitário em relação ao próprio desempenho em estatística. Observou-se que a escala é fidedigna e válida para medir as atitudes. Os participantes apresentaram atitudes ligeiramente mais negativas do que positivas. Constatou-se a existência de correlações positivas e significativas entre atitude, desempenho acadêmico e autopercepção de desempenho.The aim of this work was to assess psychology students' attitudes toward statistics trough credit partial model of IRT, and to identify the association among the students' attitudes, academic performance, and self-perception in Statistics. A not random sample of 361 Psychology students answered the identification questionnaire and the attitudes scale towards Statistics. The students aged 18-65, 81% were female and 53% from evening classes. The likert scale is composed of 20 items, ten positives and ten negatives, which express the feelings towards Statistics. There is one item which verifies the university student's self-perception towards its own performance in Statistics. It was observed that the scale was reliable and valid to measure attitudes. The students presented their attitudes slightly more negative than positive. It was noticed the existence of positive and significant correlations among attitudes, academic performance and performance self-perception.

  4. Cooperative credit systems: defence of the model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Sánchez Boza

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the role carried out by saving and credit cooperatives in Central America where they have gained momentum, mainly in the past ten years. Cooperatives of this type are called financial intermediation cooperatives due to the influence of various legislative regulations that have placed them in the context of international control, the type of economic activity they perform and the fact that they make profits from both public and private international entities which enable their growth.Many of these organisations can be commended. They are highly competitive on financial markets and strive to extend their profits to increasingly larger parts of the population while also searching for new products to benefit the sector of the population that has chosen the cooperative model as a means to progress in a sphere of equity and respect for the rights of their fellow men.Received: 31.05.2015Accepted: 17.07.2015

  5. A Macroeconomic Model of Credit Risk in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Illanes

    Full Text Available In this paper we evaluate credit risk of the economy as a whole, aiming at the study of the financial stability. This analysis uses as proxy the credit granted by the banking system. We use a non-linear parametric model based on Merton's structural framework for the analysis of the risk associated to a loan portfolio. In this model, default occurs when the return of an economic agent falls under certain threshold which depends on different macroeconomic variables. We use this model to assess the credit risk module in stress tests for the local banking system. We also estimate the "elasticities" of credit categories correspondig to corporate credit and consumer credit, both in national currency and american dollars. We obtain the parameters for the model using maximum likelihood, where the likelihood function contains a random latent factor which is assumed to follow a normal distribution.

  6. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  7. A dynamic model of unsecured credit

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel R. Sanches

    2010-01-01

    The author studies the terms of credit in a competitive market in which sellers (lenders) are willing to repeatedly finance the purchases of buyers (borrowers) by engaging in a credit relationship. The key frictions are: (i) the lender is unable to observe the borrower's ability to repay a loan; (ii) the borrower cannot commit to any long-term contract; (iii) it is costly for the lender to contact a borrower and to walk away from a contract; and (iv) transactions within each credit relationsh...

  8. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  9. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  10. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  11. Exchange credit risk: Measurement and implications on the stability of partially dollarized financial systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Mordecki

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Some emergent economies present a high financial dollarization in loans and deposits, generating a specific risk in the banking activity. We quantify this exchange credit risk as the price of an option equivalent to this loan, and discuss the financial stability implications due to the (implicit issuance of these options. The exchange rate is modeled through a Levy process. The depth of the market depends on the type of the currencies involved. Whenever possible, we depart from option prices to calibrate a model, like in the EUR/USD market. But if the market is not liquid, as the USD/UYU market, we provide alternative pricing methodologies.

  12. Partially molten magma ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirley, D.N.

    1983-01-01

    The properties of the lunar crust and upper mantle can be explained if the outer 300-400 km of the moon was initially only partially molten rather than fully molten. The top of the partially molten region contained about 20% melt and decreased to 0% at 300-400 km depth. Nuclei of anorthositic crust formed over localized bodies of magma segregated from the partial melt, then grew peripherally until they coverd the moon. Throughout most of its growth period the anorthosite crust floated on a layer of magma a few km thick. The thickness of this layer is regulated by the opposing forces of loss of material by fractional crystallization and addition of magma from the partial melt below. Concentrations of Sr, Eu, and Sm in pristine ferroan anorthosites are found to be consistent with this model, as are trends for the ferroan anorthosites and Mg-rich suites on a diagram of An in plagioclase vs. mg in mafics. Clustering of Eu, Sr, and mg values found among pristine ferroan anorthosites are predicted by this model

  13. Retailer's inventory system in a two-level trade credit financing with selling price discount and partial order cancelations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangam, A.

    2015-06-01

    In today's fast marketing over the Internet or online, many retailers want to trade at the same time and change their marketing strategy to attract more customers. Some of the customers may decide to cancel their orders partially with a retailer due to various reasons such as increase in customer's waiting time, loss of customer's goodwill on retailer's business, attractive promotional schemes offered by other retailers etc. Even though there is a lag in trading and order cancelation, this paper attempts to develop the retailer's inventory model with the effect of order cancelations during advance sales period. The retailer announces a price discount program during advance sales period to promote his sales and also he offers trade credit financing during the sales periods. The retailer availing trade credit period from his supplier offers a permissible delay period to his customers. The customer who gets an item has allowed paying on or before the permissible delay period which is accounted from the buying time rather than the start period of inventory sales. This accounts for significant changes in the calculations of interest payable and interest earned by the retailer. The retailer's total cost is minimized so as to find out the optimal replenishment cycle time and price discount policies through a solution procedure. The results derived in mathematical theorems are implemented in numerical examples and sensitivity analyses on several inventory parameters are obtained.

  14. Retailer's inventory system in a two-level trade credit financing with selling price discount and partial order cancellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangam, A.

    2014-02-01

    In today's fast marketing over the Internet or online, many retailers want to trade at the same time and change their marketing strategy to attract more customers. Some of the customers may decide to cancel their orders partially with a retailer due to various reasons such as increase in customer's waiting time, loss of customer's goodwill on retailer's business, and attractive promotional schemes offered by other retailers. Even though there is a lag in trading and order cancellation, this paper attempts to develop the retailer's inventory model with the effect of order cancellations during advance sales period. The retailer announces a price discount program during advance sales period to promote his sales and also offers trade credit financing during the sales periods. The retailer availing trade credit period from his supplier offers a permissible delay period to his customers. The customer who gets an item is allowed to pay on or before the permissible delay period which is accounted from the buying time rather than from the start period of inventory sales. This accounts for significant changes in the calculations of interest payable and interest earned by the retailer. The retailer's total cost is minimized so as to find out the optimal replenishment cycle time and price discount policies through a solution procedure. The results derived in mathematical theorems are implemented in numerical examples, and sensitivity analyses on several inventory parameters are obtained.

  15. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  16. Optimal replenishment and credit policy in supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit with time- and credit-sensitive demand involving default risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahata, Puspita; Mahata, Gour Chandra; Kumar De, Sujit

    2018-03-01

    Traditional supply chain inventory modes with trade credit usually only assumed that the up-stream suppliers offered the down-stream retailers a fixed credit period. However, in practice the retailers will also provide a credit period to customers to promote the market competition. In this paper, we formulate an optimal supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit policy with default risk consideration. Here, the demand is assumed to be credit-sensitive and increasing function of time. The major objective is to determine the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution to the presented model are examined, and an easy method is also shown to find the optimal inventory policies of the considered problem. Finally, numerical examples and sensitive analysis are presented to illustrate the developed model and to provide some managerial insights.

  17. STOCHASTIC MODELING OF OPTIMIZED CREDIT STRATEGY OF A DISTRIBUTING COMPANY ON THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Boychuk

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The activity of distribution companies is multifaceted. Ihey establish contacts with producers and consumers, determine the range of prices of medicines, do promotions, hold stocks of pharmaceuticals and take risks in their further selling.Their internal problems are complicated by the political crisis in the country, decreased purchasing power of national currency, and the rise in interest rates on loans. Therefore the usage of stochastic models of dynamic systems for the research into optimizing the management of pharmaceutical products distribution companies taking into account credit payments is of great current interest. A stochastic model of the optimal credit strategy of a pharmaceutical distributor in the market of pharmaceutical products has been constructed in the article considering credit payments and income limitations. From the mathematical point of view the obtained problem is the one of stochastic optimal control where the amount of monetary credit is the control and the amount of pharmaceutical product is the solution curve. The model allows to identify the optimal cash loan and the corresponding optimal quantity of pharmaceutical product that comply with the differential model of the existing quantity of pharmaceutical products in the form of Ito; the condition of the existing initial stock of pharmaceutical products; the limitation on the amount of credit and profit received from the product selling and maximize the average integral income. The research of the stochastic optimal control problem involves the construction of the left process of crediting with determination of the shift point of that control, the choice of the right crediting process and the formation of the optimal credit process. It was found that the optimal control of the credit amount and the shift point of that control are the determined values and don’t depend on the coefficient in the Wiener process and the optimal trajectory of the amount of

  18. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Anagnostou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

  19. A Pruning Neural Network Model in Credit Classification Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajiao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, credit classification models are widely applied because they can help financial decision-makers to handle credit classification issues. Among them, artificial neural networks (ANNs have been widely accepted as the convincing methods in the credit industry. In this paper, we propose a pruning neural network (PNN and apply it to solve credit classification problem by adopting the well-known Australian and Japanese credit datasets. The model is inspired by synaptic nonlinearity of a dendritic tree in a biological neural model. And it is trained by an error back-propagation algorithm. The model is capable of realizing a neuronal pruning function by removing the superfluous synapses and useless dendrites and forms a tidy dendritic morphology at the end of learning. Furthermore, we utilize logic circuits (LCs to simulate the dendritic structures successfully which makes PNN be implemented on the hardware effectively. The statistical results of our experiments have verified that PNN obtains superior performance in comparison with other classical algorithms in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

  20. Formation of borrower’s bank credit scoring integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.V. Lysenok

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article proposes the borrower’s bank credit scoring model that is of particular relevance in an unstable world and Ukrainian financial markets. The essence of this integrated model is the consistent definition of indicators, which analyze the financial and economic situation and development of scoring that allows to calculate overall index, that is, the integral factor of credit scoring level of the bank to calculate which one uses the formed set of factors characterizing riskiness, profitability and liquidity of the banking institution. The author determines the factors according to their functional purpose; the former ones are divided into four groups: capital adequacy, loan portfolio quality, profitability and liquidity. Each group consists of four indicators; each indicator is assigned thresholds to determine the appropriate credit scoring level of the bank for one or another direction. The higher is the value of the integral factor, the more efficient and less risky is the financial and economic activity of banks and the higher is their credit scoring level. The study concludes that the proposed model for bank credit scoring differs with its transparency and clarity due to use in its implementation only public information. The disadvantages include the presence of the subjective factor in assigning a certain number of points based on expert and normative methods.

  1. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  2. Advanced empirical estimate of information value for credit scoring models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Řezáč

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit scoring, it is a term for a wide spectrum of predictive models and their underlying techniques that aid financial institutions in granting credits. These methods decide who will get credit, how much credit they should get, and what further strategies will enhance the profitability of the borrowers to the lenders. Many statistical tools are avaiable for measuring quality, within the meaning of the predictive power, of credit scoring models. Because it is impossible to use a scoring model effectively without knowing how good it is, quality indexes like Gini, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statisic and Information value are used to assess quality of given credit scoring model. The paper deals primarily with the Information value, sometimes called divergency. Commonly it is computed by discretisation of data into bins using deciles. One constraint is required to be met in this case. Number of cases have to be nonzero for all bins. If this constraint is not fulfilled there are some practical procedures for preserving finite results. As an alternative method to the empirical estimates one can use the kernel smoothing theory, which allows to estimate unknown densities and consequently, using some numerical method for integration, to estimate value of the Information value. The main contribution of this paper is a proposal and description of the empirical estimate with supervised interval selection. This advanced estimate is based on requirement to have at least k, where k is a positive integer, observations of socres of both good and bad client in each considered interval. A simulation study shows that this estimate outperform both the empirical estimate using deciles and the kernel estimate. Furthermore it shows high dependency on choice of the parameter k. If we choose too small value, we get overestimated value of the Information value, and vice versa. Adjusted square root of number of bad clients seems to be a reasonable compromise.

  3. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  4. Quantifying credit portfolio losses under multi-factor models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Colldeforns-Papiol (Gemma); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractIn this work, we investigate the challenging problem of estimating credit risk measures of portfolios with exposure concentration under the multi-factor Gaussian and multi-factor t-copula models. It is well-known that Monte Carlo (MC) methods are highly demanding from the computational

  5. Mathematical Modelling of Intraretinal Oxygen Partial Pressure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: The aim of our present work is to develop a simple steady state model for intraretinal oxygen partial pressure distribution and to investigate the effect of various model parameters on the partial pressure distribution under adapted conditions of light and darkness.. Method: A simple eight-layered mathematical model ...

  6. An inventory model with a new credit drift: Flexible trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Prakash Tyagi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In most of the published articles dealing with optimal order quantity model under permissible delay in payments, it is assumed that the supplier only put forwards fully permissible delay in payments if retailer ordered a bulky sufficient quantity otherwise permissible delay in payments would not be permitted. Practically, in competitive market environments and recession phases of business, every supplier wants to attract more retailers by the help of providing good facilities for trading. Necessity of order quantity may put a negative pressure on supplier’s demand. So, within the economic order quantity (EOQ framework the main purpose of this paper is to broaden this extreme case by introducing a new credit policy, Flexible Trade Credit Policy (FTCP, for supplier which can help him provide more free space of trading to retailers. This policy, after adopting by suppliers, not only provides attractive trading environments for retailers but also enhances the demand of supplier due to the large number of new retailers. Here in, under this policy, an inventory system is investigated as a cost minimization problem to establish the retailer’s optimal inventory cycle time and optimal order quantity. Three theorems are established to describe and to lighten optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. Finally, numerical examples are considered to illustrate all these theorems and managerial insights are given based on considered numerical examples.

  7. Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models

    OpenAIRE

    Addo , Peter ,; Guegan , Dominique; Hassani , Bertrand

    2018-01-01

    URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2018.03 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Due to the hyper technology associated to Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending financial institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision making and transparency. In...

  8. Credit Spread Modeling: Macro-financial versus HOC Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Dudaković

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to throw light on the relationship between credit spread changes and past changes of U.S. macro-financial variables when invariants do not have Gaussian distribution. The first part presents the empirical analysis which is based on 10-year AAA corporate bond yields and 10-year Treasury bond yields. Explanatory variables include lagged U.S. leading index, Russell 2000 returns, BBB bond price changes interest rate swaps, exchange rates EUR/ USD, Repo rates, S& P 500 returns and S&P 500 volatility, Treasury bill changes, liquidity index-TRSW, LIBOR rates, Moody’s default rates; credit spread volatility and Treasury bills volatility. The proposed dynamical model explains 73% of the U.S. credit spread variance for the period 1999:07-2013:07. The second part of the article introduces the parameter estimation method based on higher order cumulants. It is demonstrated empirically that much of the information about variability of Credit Spread can be extracted from higher order cumulant function (85%.

  9. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  10. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  11. Supply chain model with price- and trade credit-sensitive demand under two-level permissible delay in payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giri, B. C.; Maiti, T.

    2013-05-01

    This article develops a single-manufacturer and single-retailer supply chain model under two-level permissible delay in payments when the manufacturer follows a lot-for-lot policy in response to the retailer's demand. The manufacturer offers a trade credit period to the retailer with the contract that the retailer must share a fraction of the profit earned during the trade credit period. On the other hand, the retailer provides his customer a partial trade credit which is less than that of the manufacturer. The demand at the retailer is assumed to be dependent on the selling price and the trade credit period offered to the customers. The average net profit of the supply chain is derived and an algorithm for finding the optimal solution is developed. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the coordination policy of the supply chain and examine the sensitivity of key model-parameters.

  12. Medición de la Alfabetización Económica en Niños: Oportunidades Diagnósticas con el Modelo de Crédito Parcial Measurement of Economic Literacy in Children: Diagnostic Opportunities With Partial Credit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Gempp

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo describe el uso del Modelo de Crédito Parcial (MCP para medir Alfabetización Económica en niños, a través de ítems de Elección Múltiple Ordenada (EMO. Elaboramos ítems EMO basados en un modelo piagetano que propone tres niveles progresivos en el desarrollo de conceptos y razonamiento sobre la economía. En el formato EMO, cada una de las posibles alternativas de respuesta estuvo ligada a una etapa cognitiva de desarrollo del pensamiento económico propuesta por la teoría. Los ítems fueron administrados a 1035 niños, entre 10 a 15 años de edad, y calibrados utilizando el MCP. Los resultados muestran tanto la utilidad de los ítems EMO como la eficiencia del MCP como herramientas para puntuar, analizar e interpretar evaluaciones diagnósticas construidas en un marco de referencia piagetano.This paper describes the use of the Partial Credit Model (PCM to measure Economic Literacy in children, with Ordered Multiple-Choice Items (OMC. We developed OMC items based on a Piagetian model that proposes three progressive levels in the development of concepts and reasoning about the economy. In OMC format, each of the possible answer choices was linked to a cognitive stage of economical thinking proposed by the theory. The items were administered to 1035 children, ages 10 to 15 years, and calibrated using the PCM. The results show both the utility of OMC items and the efficiency of PCM as tools for the score, analysis, and interpretation of diagnostic assessments constructed in a Piagetian framework.

  13. Application of Vine Copulas to Credit Portfolio Risk Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Geidosch

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we demonstrate the superiority of vine copulas over conventional copulas when modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio. We show statistical and economic implications of replacing conventional copulas by vine copulas for a subportfolio of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the S&P 500 companies, respectively. Our study includes D-vines and R-vines where the bivariate building blocks are chosen from the Gaussian, the t and the Clayton family. Our findings are (i the conventional Gauss copula is deficient in modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio and economic capital is seriously underestimated; (ii D-vine structures offer a better statistical fit to the data than classical copulas, but underestimate economic capital compared to R-vines; (iii when mixing different copula families in an R-vine structure, the best statistical fit to the data can be achieved which corresponds to the most reliable estimate for economic capital.

  14. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  15. Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martey Addo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

  16. A Model for Partial Kantian Cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Kordonis, Ioannis

    2016-01-01

    This work presents a game theoretic model to describe game situations in which there is a partial cooperation among the players. Specifically, we assume that the players partially follow Kant's "Categorical Imperative". The model is stated for games with a continuum of players and the basic assumption made is that the participants consider that they belong to virtual groups in which they optimize their actions as if they were bound to follow the same strategy. The relation with the Nash, (Ben...

  17. Partial Differential Equations Modeling and Numerical Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Glowinski, Roland

    2008-01-01

    This book is dedicated to Olivier Pironneau. For more than 250 years partial differential equations have been clearly the most important tool available to mankind in order to understand a large variety of phenomena, natural at first and then those originating from human activity and technological development. Mechanics, physics and their engineering applications were the first to benefit from the impact of partial differential equations on modeling and design, but a little less than a century ago the Schrödinger equation was the key opening the door to the application of partial differential equations to quantum chemistry, for small atomic and molecular systems at first, but then for systems of fast growing complexity. Mathematical modeling methods based on partial differential equations form an important part of contemporary science and are widely used in engineering and scientific applications. In this book several experts in this field present their latest results and discuss trends in the numerical analy...

  18. Graphical Rasch models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Svend; Christensen, Karl Bang

    Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models......Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models...

  19. Partial chord diagrams and matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jørgen Ellegaard; Fuji, Hiroyuki; Manabe, Masahide

    In this article, the enumeration of partial chord diagrams is discussed via matrix model techniques. In addition to the basic data such as the number of backbones and chords, we also consider the Euler characteristic, the backbone spectrum, the boundary point spectrum, and the boundary length spe...

  20. A user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble for broadband network new media service supervision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang; Cao, San-xing; Lu, Rui

    2012-04-01

    This paper proposes a user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble aiming to solve the problem that users illegally spread pirated and pornographic media contents within the user self-service oriented broadband network new media platforms. Its idea is to do the new media user credit assessment by establishing indices system based on user credit behaviors, and the illegal users could be found according to the credit assessment results, thus to curb the bad videos and audios transmitted on the network. The user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble proposed by this paper which integrates the advantages that swarm intelligence clustering is suitable for user credit behavior analysis and K-means clustering could eliminate the scattered users existed in the result of swarm intelligence clustering, thus to realize all the users' credit classification automatically. The model's effective verification experiments are accomplished which are based on standard credit application dataset in UCI machine learning repository, and the statistical results of a comparative experiment with a single model of swarm intelligence clustering indicates this clustering ensemble model has a stronger creditworthiness distinguishing ability, especially in the aspect of predicting to find user clusters with the best credit and worst credit, which will facilitate the operators to take incentive measures or punitive measures accurately. Besides, compared with the experimental results of Logistic regression based model under the same conditions, this clustering ensemble model is robustness and has better prediction accuracy.

  1. Construction and Application Research of Isomap-RVM Credit Assessment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangrong Tong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit assessment is the basis and premise of credit risk management systems. Accurate and scientific credit assessment is of great significance to the operational decisions of shareholders, corporate creditors, and management. Building a good and reliable credit assessment model is key to credit assessment. Traditional credit assessment models are constructed using the support vector machine (SVM combined with certain traditional dimensionality reduction algorithms. When constructing such a model, the dimensionality reduction algorithms are first applied to reduce the dimensions of the samples, so as to prevent the correlation of the samples’ characteristic index from being too high. Then, machine learning of the samples will be conducted using the SVM, in order to carry out classification assessment. To further improve the accuracy of credit assessment methods, this paper has introduced more cutting-edge algorithms, applied isometric feature mapping (Isomap for dimensionality reduction, and used the relevance vector machine (RVM for credit classification. It has constructed an Isomap-RVM model and used it to conduct financial analysis of China's listed companies. The empirical analysis shows that the credit assessment accuracy of the Isomap-RVM model is significantly higher than that of the Isomap-SVM model and slightly higher than that of the PCA-RVM model. It can correctly identify the credit risks of listed companies.

  2. Exploiting partial knowledge for efficient model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Macedo, Nuno; Cunha, Alcino; Pessoa, Eduardo José Dias

    2017-01-01

    The advancement of constraint solvers and model checkers has enabled the effective analysis of high-level formal specification languages. However, these typically handle a specification in an opaque manner, amalgamating all its constraints in a single monolithic verification task, which often proves to be a performance bottleneck. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a solving strategy that exploits user-provided partial knowledge, namely by assigning symbolic bounds to the problem’s ...

  3. EFFECTS OF TRUST FUND MODEL CREDIT INTERVENTION ON ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IBUKUN

    Agricultural credit encompasses all loans and advances granted to borrowers to finance ... Governmental Organizations (NGOs) place funds in trust with lending banks to augment the small ..... AJFAND online Scholarly Peer Reviewed, 12 (3).

  4. An application of locally linear model tree algorithm with combination of feature selection in credit scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siami, Mohammad; Gholamian, Mohammad Reza; Basiri, Javad

    2014-10-01

    Nowadays, credit scoring is one of the most important topics in the banking sector. Credit scoring models have been widely used to facilitate the process of credit assessing. In this paper, an application of the locally linear model tree algorithm (LOLIMOT) was experimented to evaluate the superiority of its performance to predict the customer's credit status. The algorithm is improved with an aim of adjustment by credit scoring domain by means of data fusion and feature selection techniques. Two real world credit data sets - Australian and German - from UCI machine learning database were selected to demonstrate the performance of our new classifier. The analytical results indicate that the improved LOLIMOT significantly increase the prediction accuracy.

  5. Two-echelon competitive integrated supply chain model with price and credit period dependent demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2016-04-01

    This study considers a two-echelon competitive supply chain consisting of two rivaling retailers and one common supplier with trade credit policy. The retailers hope that they can enhance their market demand by offering a credit period to the customers and the supplier also offers a credit period to the retailers. We assume that the market demand of the products of one retailer depends not only on their own market price and offering a credit period to the customers, but also on the market price and offering a credit period of the other retailer. The supplier supplies the product with a common wholesale price and offers the same credit period to the retailers. We study the model under a centralised (integrated) case and a decentralised (Vertical Nash) case and compare them numerically. Finally, we investigate the model by the collected numerical data.

  6. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  7. Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jun Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

  8. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.

  9. Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf

  10. Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

    2014-11-13

    The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  11. Survey of credit risk models in relation to capital adequacy framework for financial institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poomjai Nacaskul

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article (i iterates what is meant by credit risks and the mathematical-statistical modelling thereof, (ii elaborates the conceptual and technical links between credit risk modelling and capital adequacy framework for financial institutions, particularly as per the New Capital Accord (Basel II’s Internal Ratings-Based (IRB approach, (iii proffer a simple and intuitive taxonomy on contemporary credit risk modelling methodologies, and (iv discuses in some details a number of key models pertinent, in various stages of development, to various application areas in the banking and financial sector.

  12. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

  13. Validation Techniques of the Intern Models for Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Moinescu

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The new own funds adequacy device, officialy named “ International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”, describes the most important benchmark framework for micro-prudential supervision at the moment. The publication of the final text in June 2004, after five years of deliberations, represents the result of multiple analyses and comments provided by all interested parties, banking supervision authorities, associations and credit institutions. Provided the development of complex methodologies of risk measurement and management, on a large scale, by credit institutions, simple and static rules of the first accord have become less and less relevant during the last years. And so, the need of setting up a own funds adequacy framework which is much more risk sensitive and provides incentives to credit institutions on what concerns the improvement of risk measurement and management systems was met by approval of the Basel II Accord, which will, therefore, lead to the strengthening of financial stability. The revisal of the Accord was mainly focused on the increase of risk analysis and internal measurement and the changes made to their estimation allow banks to create their own methodological framework to calculate capital requirements (also considering each credit institution’ risk appetite.

  14. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models

    KAUST Repository

    Xun, Xiaolei

    2013-09-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the presence of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from long-range infrared light detection and ranging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  15. Internal Model of Commercial Bank as an Instrument for Measuring Credit Risk of the Borrower in Relation to Financial Performance (Credit Scoring and Bankruptcy Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belás Jaroslav

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Commercial banks generally use different methods and procedures for managing credit risk. The internal rating method in which the client has an important position in the process of granting credit provides a comprehensive assessment of client creditworthiness. The aim of this article is to analyze selected theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of internal rating models of commercial banks within the context of models that measures financial performance and to make a comparison of results of real - rating models which are used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The results of the chosen credit scoring and bankruptcy methods on selected companies from segments of small and medium-sized companies are presented.

  16. Analisis Model Peramalan Status Kredit Kendaraan Bermotor pada Astra Credit Companies (ACC Cabang X Periode 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomy G. Soemapradja

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to increasing revenue, credit and financial institution, especially, automotive financing, gave lower interest rate. This, of course, will impact to the costumer with higher opportunity to have their dream which facilitated by those institutions. Despites to all economic risks and sales targets, credit and financial institutions have to empower their credit monitoring to anticipate earlier of credit defaults. Inspired by Altman’s research in 1968, about predicting bankruptcy of US companies, this research has purpose to determine which variable that significantly to the car loan status at Astra Credit Companies (ACC, and further continue to arrange prediction model of loan status and measure it’s accuracy level.. The statistic test shows there are 2 independent variables affect to dependent variable significantly, where model’s accuracy level achieves 100%.

  17. Modelling local government unit credit risk in the Republic of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Posedel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to determine possible indicators that affect local unit credit risk and investigate their effect on default (credit risk of local government units in Croatia. No system for the estimation of local unit credit risk has been established in Croatia so far causing many practical problems in local unit borrowing. Because of the specific nature of the operations of local government units and legislation that does not allow local government units to go into bankruptcy, conventional methods for estimating credit risk are not applicable, and the set of standard potential determinants of credit risk has to be expanded with new indicators. Thus in the paper, in addition to the usual determinants of credit risk, the hypothesis of the influence of political factors on local unit credit risk in Croatia is also tested out, with the use of a Tobit model. Results of econometric analysis show that credit risk of local government units in Croatia is affected by the political structure of local government, the proportion of income tax and surtax in operating revenue, the ratio of net operating balance, net financial liabilities and direct debt to operating revenue, as well as the ratio of debt repayment and cash, and direct debt and operating revenue.

  18. Credit risk assessment model for Jordanian commercial banks: Neural scoring approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Ali Bekhet

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the increase in the number of non-performing loans and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use data mining tools to support credit decisions. Artificial neural networks represent a new family of statistical techniques and promising data mining tools that have been used successfully in classification problems in many domains. This paper proposes two credit scoring models using data mining techniques to support loan decisions for the Jordanian commercial banks. Loan application evaluation would improve credit decision effectiveness and control loan office tasks, as well as save analysis time and cost. Both accepted and rejected loan applications, from different Jordanian commercial banks, were used to build the credit scoring models. The results indicate that the logistic regression model performed slightly better than the radial basis function model in terms of the overall accuracy rate. However, the radial basis function was superior in identifying those customers who may default.

  19. Analysis of credit linked demand in an inventory model with varying ordering cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banu, Ateka; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have considered an economic order quantity model for deteriorating items with two-level trade credit policy in which a delay in payment is offered by a supplier to a retailer and also an another delay in payment is offered by the retailer to his/her all customers. Here, it is proposed that the demand function is dependent on the length of the customer's credit period and also the duration of offering the credit period. In this article, it is considered that the retailer's ordering cost per order depends on the number of replenishment cycles. The objective of this model is to establish a deterministic EOQ model of deteriorating items for the retailer to decide the position of customers credit period and the number of replenishment cycles in finite time horizon such that the retailer gets the maximum profit. Also, the model is explained with the help of some numerical examples.

  20. Trade-credit modeling for deteriorating item inventory system with ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Dipana Jyoti Mohanty

    2018-03-23

    Mar 23, 2018 ... inventory/supply chain management. Multifariousness of deterministic .... time within which ramp-type demand increases b percentage of partially back ... imply the diminishing marginal productivity of capital. 6. Repairing or ...

  1. Partial Orders and Fully Abstract Models for Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg, Uffe Henrik

    1990-01-01

    In this thesis sets of labelled partial orders are employed as fundamental mathematical entities for modelling nondeterministic and concurrent processes thereby obtaining so-called noninterleaving semantics. Based on different closures of sets of labelled partial orders, simple algebraic language...

  2. An Application of Robust Method in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Credit Card Debt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amira Azmi, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Salleh, Rohayu Mohd; Hamzah, Nur Shamsidah Amir

    2018-04-01

    Credit card is a convenient alternative replaced cash or cheque, and it is essential component for electronic and internet commerce. In this study, the researchers attempt to determine the relationship and significance variables between credit card debt and demographic variables such as age, household income, education level, years with current employer, years at current address, debt to income ratio and other debt. The provided data covers 850 customers information. There are three methods that applied to the credit card debt data which are multiple linear regression (MLR) models, MLR models with least quartile difference (LQD) method and MLR models with mean absolute deviation method. After comparing among three methods, it is found that MLR model with LQD method became the best model with the lowest value of mean square error (MSE). According to the final model, it shows that the years with current employer, years at current address, household income in thousands and debt to income ratio are positively associated with the amount of credit debt. Meanwhile variables for age, level of education and other debt are negatively associated with amount of credit debt. This study may serve as a reference for the bank company by using robust methods, so that they could better understand their options and choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference regarding to the credit card debt.

  3. Binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from trade receivables in non-financial sector entities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Remenarić

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In July 2014, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB published International Financial Reporting Standard 9 Financial Instruments (IFRS 9. This standard introduces an expected credit loss (ECL impairment model that applies to financial instruments, including trade and lease receivables. IFRS 9 applies to annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018 in the European Union member states. While the main reason for amending the current model was to require major banks to recognize losses in advance of a credit event occurring, this new model also applies to all receivables, including trade receivables, lease receivables, related party loan receivables in non-financial sector entities. The new impairment model is intended to result in earlier recognition of credit losses. The previous model described in International Accounting Standard 39 Financial instruments (IAS 39 was based on incurred losses. One of the major questions now is what models to use to predict expected credit losses in non-financial sector entities. The purpose of this paper is to research the application of the current impairment model, the extent to which the current impairment model can be modified to satisfy new impairment model requirements and the applicability of the binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from accounts receivable.

  4. Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.

  5. Mathematical Modelling of Intraretinal Oxygen Partial Pressure

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erah

    oxygen availability) is required for retinal oxidative metabolism. .... retina was described using Hill's equation and Fick's law. ... ganglion cell / nerve fiber layer and the superficial ..... parameter values producing the best. Figure 2: Partial ...

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  7. Production inventory model for two-level trade credit financing under the effect of preservation technology and learning in supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Kumar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the inventory model for a retailer under two levels of trade credit to reflect the supply chain management. Supplier offers trade credit period of M to the retailer while in turn retailer provides a trade credit period of N to his/her customers. The supplier is willing to provide the retailer a full trade credit period for payments and the retailer offers the partial trade credit period to his/her customers. Here, selling items are considered as perishable items such as fruits, fresh fishes, gasoline, photographic films, etc. so that its potential worth decreases. It is assumed that decay in potential worth of items can be increased by using preservation technology. The demand is considered as the function of selling price and trade credit. Ordering cost can be reducing due to learning by doing phenomenon. By applying convex fractional programming results, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions of an optimal solution. Some theorems are developed to determine retailer’s optimal ordering policies and numerical examples are given to illustrate these theorems. In addition, some managerial insights from the numerical examples are also concluded.

  8. The Multi-state Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.; Monteiro, A.

    2008-01-01

    A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of the

  9. Using Cutting-Edge Tree-Based Stochastic Models to Predict Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Halteh

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is a critical issue that affects banks and companies on a global scale. Possessing the ability to accurately predict the level of credit risk has the potential to help the lender and borrower. This is achieved by alleviating the number of loans provided to borrowers with poor financial health, thereby reducing the number of failed businesses, and, in effect, preventing economies from collapsing. This paper uses state-of-the-art stochastic models, namely: Decision trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient boosting to add to the current literature on credit-risk modelling. The Australian mining industry has been selected to test our methodology. Mining in Australia generates around $138 billion annually, making up more than half of the total goods and services. This paper uses publicly-available financial data from 750 risky and not risky Australian mining companies as variables in our models. Our results indicate that stochastic gradient boosting was the superior model at correctly classifying the good and bad credit-rated companies within the mining sector. Our model showed that ‘Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE turnover’, ‘Invested Capital Turnover’, and ‘Price over Earnings Ratio (PER’ were the variables with the best explanatory power pertaining to predicting credit risk in the Australian mining sector.

  10. Financial performance as a decision criterion of credit scoring models selection [doi: 10.21529/RECADM.2017004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Alves Silva

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to show the importance of the use of financial metrics in decision-making of credit scoring models selection. In order to achieve such, we considered an automatic approval system approach and we carried out a performance analysis of the financial metrics on the theoretical portfolios generated by seven credit scoring models based on main statistical learning techniques. The models were estimated on German Credit dataset and the results were analyzed based on four metrics: total accuracy, error cost, risk adjusted return on capital and Sharpe index. The results show that total accuracy, widely used as a criterion for selecting credit scoring models, is unable to select the most profitable model for the company, indicating the need to incorporate financial metrics into the credit scoring model selection process. Keywords Credit risk; Model’s selection; Statistical learning.

  11. Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on

  12. Demand, credit and macroeconomic dynamics: A microsimulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijers, H.H.M.; Nomaler, Z.O.; Verspagen, B.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a microsimulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas: (i) we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms, (ii) we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent approach that

  13. Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

  14. Teaching Modeling with Partial Differential Equations: Several Successful Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Joseph; Trubatch, David; Winkel, Brian

    2008-01-01

    We discuss the introduction and teaching of partial differential equations (heat and wave equations) via modeling physical phenomena, using a new approach that encompasses constructing difference equations and implementing these in a spreadsheet, numerically solving the partial differential equations using the numerical differential equation…

  15. OPTIMAL STOCK MODELING FOR NON-FOODS RETAILER SELLING ON-CREDIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Manakhov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the problem of retail stock optimization within mo-nopolistic competition market while selling non-food goods to customers on-credit. Optimization model has been developed and appropriate technique of stock volume planning has been introduced

  16. On reserve money for an EOQ model in an inflationary environment under supplier credits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, S.R.; Jain, R.

    2009-01-01

    We propose to derive a deterministic inventory model for a stock with time-varying deterioration rate with a linear trend in demand over a finite planning horizon in this study. We assume that the supplier offers a credit limit to the retailer during which there is no interest charged. However, the

  17. Higher order saddlepoint approximations in the Vasicek portfolio credit loss model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, X.; Oosterlee, C.W.; van der Weide, J.A.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper utilizes the saddlepoint approximation as an efficient tool to estimate the portfolio credit loss distribution in the Vasicek model. Value at Risk (VaR), the risk measure chosen in the Basel II Accord for the evaluation of capital requirement, can then be found by inverting the loss

  18. Assessing Credit with Equity : A CEV Model with Jump to Default

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campi, L.; Polbennikov, S.Y.; Sbuelz, A.

    2005-01-01

    Unlike in structural and reduced-form models, we use equity as a liquid and observable primitive to analytically value corporate bonds and credit default swaps.Restrictive assumptions on the .rm.s capital structure are avoided.Default is parsimoniously represented by equity value hitting the zero

  19. Cooperative credit banks and regional growth: creation of a local development model and analysis of the «G. Toniolo» Cooperative Credit Bank in San Cataldo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Cermelli

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis has called into question not only the banking systems, but also the development model. Cooperative credit banks have returned to occupy a central role, demonstrating with his broad background that another way of providing financial services can exist. In Italy, cooperative credit banks are principal players in the banking economic system. One of those banks is the «G. Toniolo», which has become over the years a reference in the local banking system.Received: 07.06.2015Accepted: 30.07.2015

  20. Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Evangelista Régis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

  1. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  2. Mathematical Modelling of Intraretinal Oxygen Partial Pressure

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erah

    The system of non-linear differential equations was solved numerically using Runge-kutta. Nystroms method. ... artery occlusion. Keywords: Mathematical modeling, Intraretinal oxygen pressure, Retinal capillaries, Oxygen ..... Mass transfer,.

  3. Partially natural Two Higgs Doublet Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draper, Patrick [Department of Physics, University of California,Broida Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Haber, Howard E. [Santa Cruz Institute for Particle Physics, University of California,1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California,Kohn Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Ruderman, Joshua T. [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, Department of Physics, New York University,4 Washington Pl. New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2016-06-21

    It is possible that the electroweak scale is low due to the fine-tuning of microscopic parameters, which can result from selection effects. The experimental discovery of new light fundamental scalars other than the Standard Model Higgs boson would seem to disfavor this possibility, since generically such states imply parametrically worse fine-tuning with no compelling connection to selection effects. We discuss counterexamples where the Higgs boson is light because of fine-tuning, and a second scalar doublet is light because a discrete symmetry relates its mass to the mass of the Standard Model Higgs boson. Our examples require new vectorlike fermions at the electroweak scale, and the models possess a rich electroweak vacuum structure. The mechanism that we discuss does not protect a small CP-odd Higgs mass in split or high-scale supersymmetry-breaking scenarios of the MSSM due to an incompatibility between the discrete symmetries and holomorphy.

  4. Boundedly rational credit cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Sáez, María

    1996-01-01

    We propose an evolutionary model of a credit market. We show that the economy exhibits credit cycles. The model predicts dynamics which are consistent with some evidence about the Great Depression. Real shocks trigger episodes of credit--crunch which are observed in the process of adjustment towards the post shock equilibrium.

  5. FraudMiner: A Novel Credit Card Fraud Detection Model Based on Frequent Itemset Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. R. Seeja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an intelligent credit card fraud detection model for detecting fraud from highly imbalanced and anonymous credit card transaction datasets. The class imbalance problem is handled by finding legal as well as fraud transaction patterns for each customer by using frequent itemset mining. A matching algorithm is also proposed to find to which pattern (legal or fraud the incoming transaction of a particular customer is closer and a decision is made accordingly. In order to handle the anonymous nature of the data, no preference is given to any of the attributes and each attribute is considered equally for finding the patterns. The performance evaluation of the proposed model is done on UCSD Data Mining Contest 2009 Dataset (anonymous and imbalanced and it is found that the proposed model has very high fraud detection rate, balanced classification rate, Matthews correlation coefficient, and very less false alarm rate than other state-of-the-art classifiers.

  6. FraudMiner: a novel credit card fraud detection model based on frequent itemset mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeja, K R; Zareapoor, Masoumeh

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes an intelligent credit card fraud detection model for detecting fraud from highly imbalanced and anonymous credit card transaction datasets. The class imbalance problem is handled by finding legal as well as fraud transaction patterns for each customer by using frequent itemset mining. A matching algorithm is also proposed to find to which pattern (legal or fraud) the incoming transaction of a particular customer is closer and a decision is made accordingly. In order to handle the anonymous nature of the data, no preference is given to any of the attributes and each attribute is considered equally for finding the patterns. The performance evaluation of the proposed model is done on UCSD Data Mining Contest 2009 Dataset (anonymous and imbalanced) and it is found that the proposed model has very high fraud detection rate, balanced classification rate, Matthews correlation coefficient, and very less false alarm rate than other state-of-the-art classifiers.

  7. On a Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Credit Rating Migration Risksand Stochastic Interest Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Liang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a corporate bond-pricing model with credit rating migration and astochastic interest rate. The volatility of bond price in the model strongly depends on potential creditrating migration and stochastic change of the interest rate. This new model improves the previousexisting models in which the interest rate is considered to be a constant. The existence, uniquenessand regularity of the solution for the model are established. Moreover, some properties includingthe smoothness of the free boundary are obtained. Furthermore, some numerical computations arepresented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  8. Variance Function Partially Linear Single-Index Models1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Heng; Liang, Hua; Carroll, Raymond J

    2015-01-01

    We consider heteroscedastic regression models where the mean function is a partially linear single index model and the variance function depends upon a generalized partially linear single index model. We do not insist that the variance function depend only upon the mean function, as happens in the classical generalized partially linear single index model. We develop efficient and practical estimation methods for the variance function and for the mean function. Asymptotic theory for the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model is developed. Simulations illustrate the results. An empirical example involving ozone levels is used to further illustrate the results, and is shown to be a case where the variance function does not depend upon the mean function.

  9. Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2008-01-01

    We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

  10. A Bayesian Analysis of a Random Effects Small Business Loan Credit Scoring Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick J. Farrell

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important aspects of credit scoring is constructing a model that has low misclassification rates and is also flexible enough to allow for random variation. It is also well known that, when there are a large number of highly correlated variables as is typical in studies involving questionnaire data, a method must be found to reduce the number of variables to those that have high predictive power. Here we propose a Bayesian multivariate logistic regression model with both fixed and random effects for small business loan credit scoring and a variable reduction method using Bayes factors. The method is illustrated on an interesting data set based on questionnaires sent to loan officers in Canadian banks and venture capital companies

  11. Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘春红

    2003-01-01

    With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

  12. Study and optimization of the partial discharges in capacitor model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Page 1 ... experiments methodology for the study of such processes, in view of their modeling and optimization. The obtained result is a mathematical model capable to identify the parameters and the interactions between .... 5mn; the next landing is situated in 200 V over the voltage of partial discharges appearance and.

  13. Latent Partially Ordered Classification Models and Normal Mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatsuoka, Curtis; Varadi, Ferenc; Jaeger, Judith

    2013-01-01

    Latent partially ordered sets (posets) can be employed in modeling cognitive functioning, such as in the analysis of neuropsychological (NP) and educational test data. Posets are cognitively diagnostic in the sense that classification states in these models are associated with detailed profiles of cognitive functioning. These profiles allow for…

  14. Partial-Order Reduction for GPU Model Checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neele, T.; Wijs, A.; Bosnacki, D.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Artho, C; Legay, A.; Peled, D.

    2016-01-01

    Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicit-state model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partial-order reduction. We propose

  15. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  16. OPTIMUM VOLUME OF BANK RESERVE: FORECASTING OF OVERDUE CREDIT INDEBTEDNESS USING COPULA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazakova K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article propose to consider the possibility of RLUF-copulas application for the creation of joint distributions of overdue credit indebtedness ranks with macroeconomic indicators for the purpose of indebtedness forecasting and also for the definition of optimum volumes of reserve requirements for the corresponding losses. In this research the comparative analysis of multivariate distributions of RLUF-copula estimation with such classical copulas, as FGM-copula, Frank's copula and Gauss's copula is made. In the article the method of maximum likelihood is used for receiving estimates of model parameters. In case of RLUF-copula Bayesian estimates of parameters are received using the Metropolis algorithm with random volatility. Forecasting of bank reserve volumes for all received models is executed in the form of random sample generation by the means of the algorithm of acceptance-deviation for the creation of the corresponding sample of joint distribution using the copula density function. As the result of playing of hundred possible scenarios of indebtedness volumes is obtained the 95 % confidence level for the possible volume of credit indebtedness which can fully act as the optimum volume of reserve requirements for the corresponding credit losses.

  17. Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

    2018-03-01

    In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

  18. Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

    2017-11-01

    This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

  19. Centrifuge modeling of LNAPL transport in partially saturated sand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esposito, G.; Allersma, H.G.B.; Selvadurai, A.P.S.

    1999-01-01

    Model tests were performed at the Geotechnical Centrifuge Facility of Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, to examine the mechanics of light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) movement in a partially saturated porous granular medium. The experiment simulated a 2D spill of LNAPL in an

  20. DIAGNOSIS KESALAHAN SISWA BERBASIS PENSKORAN POLITOMUS MODEL PARTIAL CREDIT PADA MATEMATIKA

    OpenAIRE

    Awal Isgiyanto

    2013-01-01

    Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menemukan informasi diagnostik dari kesalahan jawaban peserta pada Ujian Nasional (UN) Matematika. Informasi diagnostik yang ditemukan meli-puti atribut yang mendasari butir soal, ketidaktuntasan atribut, dan jenis kesalahan yang dilakukan oleh peserta. Penelitian ini merupakan diagnosis post-hoc, yang digambarkan sebagai pende-katan retrofitting. Analisis butir soal dan respons butir pada UN mata pelajaran matematika untuk menemukan informasi diag-nostik pada k...

  1. Penskalaan Butir Format Respons Pilihan dan Respons Bebas Berdasarkan Model Rasch dan Partial Credit

    OpenAIRE

    Eko Hariadi

    2007-01-01

    Penelitian melihat pengaruh jumlah parameter butir, kategori respons bebas (RB), pengaruh sampel terhadap akurasi estimasi parameter kemampuan untuk menghasilkan estimasi yang stabil dan pengaruh pembobotan butir RP dan butir RB terhadap kesalahan baku. Penelitian dalam dua tahap, simulasi menggunakan 30 kondisi dengan replikasi 50 dengan variabel panjang tes, jumlah kategori, dan jumlah parameter butir, dan analisis deskriptif, dilanjutkan penerapan penskalaan gabungan butir tipe res...

  2. Using the Partial Credit Model to Evaluate the Student Engagement in Mathematics Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leis, Micela; Schmidt, Karen M.; Rimm-Kaufman, Sara E.

    2015-01-01

    The Student Engagement in Mathematics Scale (SEMS) is a self-report measure that was created to assess three dimensions of student engagement (social, emotional, and cognitive) in mathematics based on a single day of class. In the current study, the SEMS was administered to a sample of 360 fifth graders from a large Mid-Atlantic district. The…

  3. Modernization of credit relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Volosovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays it is essential to modernize credit relations in the conditions of global economy transformations. This is due to the influence of integration processes on credit relations and transformation of the risks inherent in the credit field. The purpose of this article is to develop measures that help to improve the efficiency of interaction of credit relations’ participants. Modernization of credit relations is based on the interaction of its main and indirect subjects who belong to the subsystems of loans granting, deposits attraction and provision of related services. Its goal is to pass from extensive to intensive model of interaction between the subjects of credit relations. Components of the credit relations modernization are the following: institutional modernization, which is based on the interaction of credit relations’ subjects, and ensures the development of competition in all credit market’s segments, the creation of its corresponding infrastructure, qualitative change in the approaches of regulation and supervision; technological modernization, which involves the formation of joint products on the credit market and the formation of an integrated informational and analytical system. In the result of the credit relations’ modernization it is expected to achieve synergies between the subjects of credit relations, that will lead to changes in the business architecture of the financial market.

  4. APPLICATION OF KMV MODEL TO ASSESS CREDIT RISK OF INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taishin A. A.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The problem of credit risk is relevant for the bank. The purpose of scientific research - to develop a technique of adaptation and application of the model for the evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs. The proposed method of evaluation credit risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs has many advantages. Automation of calculations, based on plausible assumptions, will significantly reduce the time to process the customer's request. The article contains analysis of the KMV model based on the up-to-date results of the theory. The author investigates the possibility of modification, generalization of the model and practical implementation of the risk estimate of default entrepreneur KMV model using software package Visual Basic for Application on the example Management reporting of the entrepreneur. Showing the features of its application in the light of the modern achievements in the theory and practice of financial analysis. In this article suggested the finished result of evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs, for risk assessment offered more precise recommendations for the practical use of KMV as a basic tool.

  5. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  6. Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

    OpenAIRE

    Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

    2018-01-01

    As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

  7. Effectiveness of bank credit activity evaluation with application of economic and mathematic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeeva, G. M.; Zagladina, E. N.; Kadeeva, E. N.

    2018-05-01

    The paper presents data on the influence of the most significant factors having impact on the credit portfolio volume, as well as conducts correlation and regression analysis with the subsequent construction of the trend for a short period. Credit activity is understood as the bank activity in the formation of a credit portfolio. Considering the structure of the bank credit portfolio, it can be observed that it consists of credits granted by the bank particularly for legal entities, individuals and other banks. Herewith, it is necessary to understand that any decrease in the credit portfolio will adversely affect the financial stability and effectiveness of any commercial bank. Moreover, during crisis periods, the policy and practice of banks have been determined as quite aggressive and conducted as such with regard to interest rates. The dynamics of credit portfolio volume has been selected as an independent factor due to the reason that it can fully explain the current development situation and the effectiveness of the bank credit policy. Considering the dependent factors, their influence will be assessed by the credit portfolio volume indicator. The authors have distinguished the following ones among them: the volume of credits granted to individuals; the volume of credits granted to legal entities; the amount of overdue credits in the credit portfolio; bank investments in the securities; inflation; key rate.

  8. Three stage trade credit policy in a three-layer supply chain-a production-inventory model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2014-09-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal replenishment lot size of supplier and optimal production rate of manufacturer under three levels of trade credit policy for supplier-manufacturer-retailer supply chain. The supplier provides a fixed credit period to settle the accounts to the manufacturer, while the manufacturer gives a fixed credit period to settle the account to the retailer and the retailer, in turn, also offers a credit period to each of its customers to settle the accounts. We assume that the supplier supplies the raw material to the manufacturer and sends back the defective raw materials to the outside supplier after completion of inspection at one lot with a sales price. The system always produces good items in the model. Also, we consider the idle times of supplier and manufacturer. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the behaviour and application of the model with graphical simulation.

  9. An EPQ Inventory Model with Allowable Shortages for Deteriorating Items under Trade Credit Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Molamohamadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to obtain the replenishment policy of a manufacturer under EPQ inventory model with backorder. It is assumed here that the manufacturer delays paying for the received goods from the supplier and the items start deteriorating as soon as they are being produced. Based on these assumptions, the manufacturer’s inventory model is formulated, and cuckoo search algorithm is applied then to find the replenishment time, order quantity, and selling price with the objective of maximizing the manufacturer’s total net profit. Besides, the traditional inventory system is shown as a special case of the proposed model in this paper, and numerical examples are given to demonstrate better performance of trade credit. These examples are also used to compare the results of cuckoo search algorithm with genetic algorithm and investigate the effects of the model parameters on its variables and net profit.

  10. CREDIT SCORING MODELS IN ESTIMATING THE CREDITWORTHINESS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM AND BIG ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Zenzerović

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on estimating the credit scoring models for companies operating in the Republic of Croatia. According to level of economic and legal development, especially in the area of bankruptcy regulation as well as business ethics in the Republic of Croatia, the models derived can be applied in wider region particularly in South-eastern European countries that twenty years ago transferred from state directed to free market economy. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the relevance and possibilities of particular financial ratios in estimating the creditworthiness of business entities what was realized by performing the research among 110 companies. Along most commonly used research methods of description, analysis and synthesis, induction, deduction and surveys, the mathematical and statistical logistic regression method took the central part in this research. The designed sample of 110 business entities represented the structure of firms operating in Republic of Croatia according to their activities as well as to their size. The sample was divided in two sub samples where the first one consist of small and medium enterprises (SME and the second one consist of big business entities. In the next phase the logistic regression method was applied on the 50 independent variables – financial ratios calculated for each sample unit in order to find ones that best discriminate financially stable from unstable companies. As the result of logistic regression analysis, two credit scoring models were derived. First model include the liquidity, solvency and profitability ratios and is applicable for SME’s. With its classification accuracy of 97% the model has high predictive ability and can be used as an effective decision support tool. Second model is applicable for big companies and include only two independent variables – liquidity and solvency ratios. The classification accuracy of this model is 92,5% and, according to criteria of

  11. Estimating varying coefficients for partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-09-01

    Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model complex dynamical systems in multiple dimensions, and their parameters often have important scientific interpretations. In some applications, PDE parameters are not constant but can change depending on the values of covariates, a feature that we call varying coefficients. We propose a parameter cascading method to estimate varying coefficients in PDE models from noisy data. Our estimates of the varying coefficients are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The performance of our method is evaluated by a simulation study and by an empirical study estimating three varying coefficients in a PDE model arising from LIDAR data. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  12. CRank: A Credit Assessment Model in C2C e-Commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiqiang; Xie, Xiaoqin; Pan, Haiwei; Han, Qilong

    An increasing number of consumers not only purchase but also resell merchandise through C2C web sites. One of the greatest concerns for the netizens is the lacking of a fair credit assessment system. Trust and trustworthiness are crucial to the survival of online markets. Reputation systems that rely on feedback from traders help to sustain the trust. And reputation systems provide one of the ways of building trusts online. In this chapter, we investigate a credit assessment model, CRank, for the members in the context of e-market systems, such as Alibaba, eBay, to solve such problem as how to choose a credible business partner when the customer wants to purchase some products from the Internet. CRank makes use of feedback profile made up of ranks from other users as well as an overall feedback rating for the user based on the idea of PageRank. This model can be used to build a trustable relation network among business participants.

  13. Model rules and regulations for a global CO2 emissions credit market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandor, R.L.; Cole, J.B.; Kelly, M.E.

    1994-01-01

    On 21 April 1993, on the occasion of Earth Day, the United States affirmed its commitment to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. In doing so, the United States joined the European Union (EU), Japan, and approximately 141 other countries that had either committed themselves to this international objective or subscribed to the general principles contained in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992. The commitment of these three trading groups provides the basis for recommending that a market for tradeable carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission entitlements among these groups be implemented as soon as an initial set of rules and regulations can be drafted. The goal of a tradeable CO 2 entitlement or credit market is to lower the cost of limiting emissions. The Costs of CO 2 emission abatement are lowered because the market encourages more emission reductions to be produced by the most efficient resources. The ability easily to selI CO 2 credits created through large emission cuts allows cost recovery by, and incentives for, the most efficient sources of emission reductions. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate debate by providing model rules and regulations for a tradeable CO 2 emission credit market. The trading rules and regulations proposed here are meant to initiate a process whereby participants will iterate toward a final set of rules and regulations. Therefore, our proposal should create a point of departure for further adjustments and transformation to the initial set of recommendations. A specific proposal will be advanced at this point in order to provide a basis for the conceptualization of this global market. Moreover, this specific proposal will help focus dialogue and may provide insight into the general recommendations presented in the balance of this paper

  14. Emulating facial biomechanics using multivariate partial least squares surrogate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tim; Martens, Harald; Hunter, Peter; Mithraratne, Kumar

    2014-11-01

    A detailed biomechanical model of the human face driven by a network of muscles is a useful tool in relating the muscle activities to facial deformations. However, lengthy computational times often hinder its applications in practical settings. The objective of this study is to replace precise but computationally demanding biomechanical model by a much faster multivariate meta-model (surrogate model), such that a significant speedup (to real-time interactive speed) can be achieved. Using a multilevel fractional factorial design, the parameter space of the biomechanical system was probed from a set of sample points chosen to satisfy maximal rank optimality and volume filling. The input-output relationship at these sampled points was then statistically emulated using linear and nonlinear, cross-validated, partial least squares regression models. It was demonstrated that these surrogate models can mimic facial biomechanics efficiently and reliably in real-time. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. semPLS: Structural Equation Modeling Using Partial Least Squares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Monecke

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Structural equation models (SEM are very popular in many disciplines. The partial least squares (PLS approach to SEM offers an alternative to covariance-based SEM, which is especially suited for situations when data is not normally distributed. PLS path modelling is referred to as soft-modeling-technique with minimum demands regarding mea- surement scales, sample sizes and residual distributions. The semPLS package provides the capability to estimate PLS path models within the R programming environment. Different setups for the estimation of factor scores can be used. Furthermore it contains modular methods for computation of bootstrap confidence intervals, model parameters and several quality indices. Various plot functions help to evaluate the model. The well known mobile phone dataset from marketing research is used to demonstrate the features of the package.

  16. Avaliação da aplicabilidade de um modelo de credit scoring com varíaveis sistêmicas e não-sistêmicas em carteiras de crédito bancário rotativo de pessoas físicas An evaluation on the applicability of a credit scoring model, with systemic and non-systemic variables in revolving bank credit portfolio for individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Odálio dos Santos

    2007-08-01

    capability. Likewise, a more significant historical exposition of the banks to insolvency risk is being observed, such as the risk of not getting paid (partially or totally and the revolving credit borrowed by consumers. Considering the size and the importance of this market to the great commercial banks and to the economy as a whole, the scope of this research comprises the following points: 1. detailing the processes of subjective and objective credit analysis carried out by the main domestic private banks; 2. approaching the selective function of interest rates in revolving credits; 3. highlighting the main characteristics of credit scoring models; and 4. proposing a model of credit scoring for revolving credits. This model is based on systemic and non-systemic variables and directed to the reduction of insolvency risk. The applicability of the credit scoring model proposed in a sample, extracted from the consumers credit portfolio which belongs to an important medium size Brazilian private commercial bank (Bank X - fictitious name, presented a satisfactory accuracy level in the identification of prospective (96% and non-prospective (92% clients, which led to the conclusion that it included and considered adequately the representative variables of borrowers’ payment capability.

  17. Hidden physics models: Machine learning of nonlinear partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raissi, Maziar; Karniadakis, George Em

    2018-03-01

    While there is currently a lot of enthusiasm about "big data", useful data is usually "small" and expensive to acquire. In this paper, we present a new paradigm of learning partial differential equations from small data. In particular, we introduce hidden physics models, which are essentially data-efficient learning machines capable of leveraging the underlying laws of physics, expressed by time dependent and nonlinear partial differential equations, to extract patterns from high-dimensional data generated from experiments. The proposed methodology may be applied to the problem of learning, system identification, or data-driven discovery of partial differential equations. Our framework relies on Gaussian processes, a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions, that enables us to strike a balance between model complexity and data fitting. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a variety of canonical problems, spanning a number of scientific domains, including the Navier-Stokes, Schrödinger, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, and time dependent linear fractional equations. The methodology provides a promising new direction for harnessing the long-standing developments of classical methods in applied mathematics and mathematical physics to design learning machines with the ability to operate in complex domains without requiring large quantities of data.

  18. Melt migration modeling in partially molten upper mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghods, Abdolreza

    The objective of this thesis is to investigate the importance of melt migration in shaping major characteristics of geological features associated with the partial melting of the upper mantle, such as sea-floor spreading, continental flood basalts and rifting. The partial melting produces permeable partially molten rocks and a buoyant low viscosity melt. Melt migrates through the partially molten rocks, and transfers mass and heat. Due to its much faster velocity and appreciable buoyancy, melt migration has the potential to modify dynamics of the upwelling partially molten plumes. I develop a 2-D, two-phase flow model and apply it to investigate effects of melt migration on the dynamics and melt generation of upwelling mantle plumes and focusing of melt migration beneath mid-ocean ridges. Melt migration changes distribution of the melt-retention buoyancy force and therefore affects the dynamics of the upwelling plume. This is investigated by modeling a plume with a constant initial melt of 10% where no further melting is considered. Melt migration polarizes melt-retention buoyancy force into high and low melt fraction regions at the top and bottom portions of the plume and therefore results in formation of a more slender and faster upwelling plume. Allowing the plume to melt as it ascends through the upper mantle also produces a slender and faster plume. It is shown that melt produced by decompressional melting of the plume migrates to the upper horizons of the plume, increases the upwelling velocity and thus, the volume of melt generated by the plume. Melt migration produces a plume which lacks the mushroom shape observed for the plume models without melt migration. Melt migration forms a high melt fraction layer beneath the sloping base of the impermeable oceanic lithosphere. Using realistic conditions of melting, freezing and melt extraction, I examine whether the high melt fraction layer is able to focus melt from a wide partial melting zone to a narrow region

  19. Optimal Retail Price Model for Partial Consignment to Multiple Retailers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also provides general solutions for the complete product consignment and the traditional policy that adopts no product consignment. In other words, both the complete consignment and nonconsignment models are extensions of the proposed model (i.e., special cases. Research results indicated that the optimal retail price must be between 1/2 (50% and 2/3 (66.67% times the upper limit of the gross profit. This study also explored the results and influence of parameter variations on optimal retail price in the model.

  20. Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

    2017-06-01

    The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

  1. Grading the probabilities of credit default risk for Malaysian listed companies by using the KMV-Merton model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anuwar, Muhammad Hafidz; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    This paper provides an overview for the assessment of credit risk specific to the banks. In finance, risk is a term to reflect the potential of financial loss. The risk of default on loan may increase when a company does not make a payment on that loan when the time comes. Hence, this framework analyses the KMV-Merton model to estimate the probabilities of default for Malaysian listed companies. In this way, banks can verify the ability of companies to meet their loan commitments in order to overcome bad investments and financial losses. This model has been applied to all Malaysian listed companies in Bursa Malaysia for estimating the credit default probabilities of companies and compare with the rating given by the rating agency, which is RAM Holdings Berhad to conform to reality. Then, the significance of this study is a credit risk grade is proposed by using the KMV-Merton model for the Malaysian listed companies.

  2. CREDIT SYSTEM AND CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMS

    OpenAIRE

    Turgay GECER

    2012-01-01

    Credit system is an integrated architecture consisted of financial information, credit rating, credit risk management, receivables and credit insurance systems, credit derivative markets and credit guarantee programs. The main purpose of the credit system is to provide the functioning of all credit channels and to make it easy to access of credit sources demanded by all of real and legal persons in any economic system. Credit guarantee program, the one of prominent elements of the credit syst...

  3. Modeling of chromosome intermingling by partially overlapping uniform random polygons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstone, T; Scharein, R; Borgo, B; Varela, R; Diao, Y; Arsuaga, J

    2011-03-01

    During the early phase of the cell cycle the eukaryotic genome is organized into chromosome territories. The geometry of the interface between any two chromosomes remains a matter of debate and may have important functional consequences. The Interchromosomal Network model (introduced by Branco and Pombo) proposes that territories intermingle along their periphery. In order to partially quantify this concept we here investigate the probability that two chromosomes form an unsplittable link. We use the uniform random polygon as a crude model for chromosome territories and we model the interchromosomal network as the common spatial region of two overlapping uniform random polygons. This simple model allows us to derive some rigorous mathematical results as well as to perform computer simulations easily. We find that the probability that one uniform random polygon of length n that partially overlaps a fixed polygon is bounded below by 1 − O(1/√n). We use numerical simulations to estimate the dependence of the linking probability of two uniform random polygons (of lengths n and m, respectively) on the amount of overlapping. The degree of overlapping is parametrized by a parameter [Formula: see text] such that [Formula: see text] indicates no overlapping and [Formula: see text] indicates total overlapping. We propose that this dependence relation may be modeled as f (ε, m, n) = [Formula: see text]. Numerical evidence shows that this model works well when [Formula: see text] is relatively large (ε ≥ 0.5). We then use these results to model the data published by Branco and Pombo and observe that for the amount of overlapping observed experimentally the URPs have a non-zero probability of forming an unsplittable link.

  4. Estimation and variable selection for generalized additive partial linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2011-08-01

    We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011.

  5. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A

    2014-11-13

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2014-10-06

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective.

  7. Consistent Partial Least Squares Path Modeling via Regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sunho; Park, JaeHong

    2018-01-01

    Partial least squares (PLS) path modeling is a component-based structural equation modeling that has been adopted in social and psychological research due to its data-analytic capability and flexibility. A recent methodological advance is consistent PLS (PLSc), designed to produce consistent estimates of path coefficients in structural models involving common factors. In practice, however, PLSc may frequently encounter multicollinearity in part because it takes a strategy of estimating path coefficients based on consistent correlations among independent latent variables. PLSc has yet no remedy for this multicollinearity problem, which can cause loss of statistical power and accuracy in parameter estimation. Thus, a ridge type of regularization is incorporated into PLSc, creating a new technique called regularized PLSc. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of regularized PLSc as compared to its non-regularized counterpart in terms of power and accuracy. The results show that our regularized PLSc is recommended for use when serious multicollinearity is present.

  8. OUTLIER DETECTION IN PARTIAL ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUN ZHAO

    Full Text Available The weighed total least square (WTLS estimate is very sensitive to the outliers in the partial EIV model. A new procedure for detecting outliers based on the data-snooping is presented in this paper. Firstly, a two-step iterated method of computing the WTLS estimates for the partial EIV model based on the standard LS theory is proposed. Secondly, the corresponding w-test statistics are constructed to detect outliers while the observations and coefficient matrix are contaminated with outliers, and a specific algorithm for detecting outliers is suggested. When the variance factor is unknown, it may be estimated by the least median squares (LMS method. At last, the simulated data and real data about two-dimensional affine transformation are analyzed. The numerical results show that the new test procedure is able to judge that the outliers locate in x component, y component or both components in coordinates while the observations and coefficient matrix are contaminated with outliers

  9. Optimization Method of Fusing Model Tree into Partial Least Squares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Fang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Partial Least Square (PLS can’t adapt to the characteristics of the data of many fields due to its own features multiple independent variables, multi-dependent variables and non-linear. However, Model Tree (MT has a good adaptability to nonlinear function, which is made up of many multiple linear segments. Based on this, a new method combining PLS and MT to analysis and predict the data is proposed, which build MT through the main ingredient and the explanatory variables(the dependent variable extracted from PLS, and extract residual information constantly to build Model Tree until well-pleased accuracy condition is satisfied. Using the data of the maxingshigan decoction of the monarch drug to treat the asthma or cough and two sample sets in the UCI Machine Learning Repository, the experimental results show that, the ability of explanation and predicting get improved in the new method.

  10. Modeling tree crown dynamics with 3D partial differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, Robert; Letort, Véronique; Cournède, Paul-Henry

    2014-01-01

    We characterize a tree's spatial foliage distribution by the local leaf area density. Considering this spatially continuous variable allows to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the tree crown by means of 3D partial differential equations. These offer a framework to rigorously take locally and adaptively acting effects into account, notably the growth toward light. Biomass production through photosynthesis and the allocation to foliage and wood are readily included in this model framework. The system of equations stands out due to its inherent dynamic property of self-organization and spontaneous adaptation, generating complex behavior from even only a few parameters. The density-based approach yields spatially structured tree crowns without relying on detailed geometry. We present the methodological fundamentals of such a modeling approach and discuss further prospects and applications.

  11. An XFEM Model for Hydraulic Fracturing in Partially Saturated Rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salimzadeh Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic fracturing is a complex multi-physics phenomenon. Numerous analytical and numerical models of hydraulic fracturing processes have been proposed. Analytical solutions commonly are able to model the growth of a single hydraulic fracture into an initially intact, homogeneous rock mass. Numerical models are able to analyse complex problems such as multiple hydraulic fractures and fracturing in heterogeneous media. However, majority of available models are restricted to single-phase flow through fracture and permeable porous rock. This is not compatible with actual field conditions where the injected fluid does not have similar properties as the host fluid. In this study we present a fully coupled hydro-poroelastic model which incorporates two fluids i.e. fracturing fluid and host fluid. Flow through fracture is defined based on lubrication assumption, while flow through matrix is defined as Darcy flow. The fracture discontinuity in the mechanical model is captured using eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM while the fracture propagation criterion is defined through cohesive fracture model. The discontinuous matrix fluid velocity across fracture is modelled using leak-off loading which couples fracture flow and matrix flow. The proposed model has been discretised using standard Galerkin method, implemented in Matlab and verified against several published solutions. Multiple hydraulic fracturing simulations are performed to show the model robustness and to illustrate how problem parameters such as injection rate and rock permeability affect the hydraulic fracturing variables i.e. injection pressure, fracture aperture and fracture length. The results show the impact of partial saturation on leak-off and the fact that single-phase models may underestimate the leak-off.

  12. An EPQ Model with Increasing Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate under Trade Credit Financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan QIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.

  13. The chemical energy unit partial oxidation reactor operation simulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mrakin, A. N.; Selivanov, A. A.; Batrakov, P. A.; Sotnikov, D. G.

    2018-01-01

    The chemical energy unit scheme for synthesis gas, electric and heat energy production which is possible to be used both for the chemical industry on-site facilities and under field conditions is represented in the paper. The partial oxidation reactor gasification process mathematical model is described and reaction products composition and temperature determining algorithm flow diagram is shown. The developed software product verification showed good convergence of the experimental values and calculations according to the other programmes: the temperature determining relative discrepancy amounted from 4 to 5 %, while the absolute composition discrepancy ranged from 1 to 3%. The synthesis gas composition was found out practically not to depend on the supplied into the partial oxidation reactor (POR) water vapour enthalpy and compressor air pressure increase ratio. Moreover, air consumption coefficient α increase from 0.7 to 0.9 was found out to decrease synthesis gas target components (carbon and hydrogen oxides) specific yield by nearly 2 times and synthesis gas target components required ratio was revealed to be seen in the water vapour specific consumption area (from 5 to 6 kg/kg of fuel).

  14. WERE OIL PRICE MARKETS THE SOURCE OF CREDIT CRISIS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES? EVIDENCE USING A VAR-MGARCH-DCC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadhem Selmi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of oil prices, credit, financial and commercial linkages in the propagation of industrial market crises during the period 2004-2012. Using VAR-MGARCH-DCC model regressions on seven markets finds that credit linkage played a significant role in the subprime, financial and global crises. Our results also show that the European debt crisis has already spread like a crisis from oil prices to Ireland and Portugal, and other countries are now at risk: Spain is a probable candidate for financial crisis.

  15. Credit Risk Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zamore, Stephen; Ohene Djan, Kwame; Alon, Ilan

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web...... of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified...... into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying...

  16. Corporate ownership as a means to solve adverse selection problems in a model of asymmetric information and credit rationing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gangopadhyay, Shubashis; Lensink, Robert

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes an asymmetric information model where the financing needs of entrepreneurs are obtained from two sources. We show that adverse selection is only important if the credit constraint of banks is not too tight. Next, we show that banks can induce a pattern of corporate ownership,

  17. Dynamic Diversification in Corporate Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Jin, Xisong

    We characterize diversification in corporate credit using a new class of dynamic copula models which can capture dynamic dependence and asymmetry in large samples of firms. We also document important differences between credit spread and equity return dependence dynamics. Modeling a decade...... the crisis and remain high as well. The most important shocks to credit dependence occur in August of 2007 and in August of 2011, but interestingly these dates are not associated with significant changes to median credit spreads....

  18. MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT LOSSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya P. Anoshkina

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the problem of credit loss management topical for modern Russian science and banking practice. The bank’s lending activity is an integral and the most profitable sphere of banking activity. Banks need to take credit risks inherent in their core business and minimize their impact through the establishment of advanced risk management systems. The study, reflected in the present paper, has been conducted in order to determine approaches to the organization of credit loss management in banking. Analysis of the system of management of credit risks and credit losses has shown that they have different scope, object and purpose. In this connection, there is an objective necessity to create a special subsystem for the management of credit losses in banks. On the basis of common bank approaches to credit risk management, the paper develops models of credit loss management: a multi-level management model in the area of ‘operational-tactical-strategic management’ and a functional management model in the area of ‘technology-execution-control’. These models are important for the modern theory and practice of banking, as they allow the bank to manage credit losses on the entire time horizon of the management process, thus opening a wide range of opportunities for the creation and implementation of large-scale programs, as well as specific techniques. This study allows drawing a conclusion about the need to consider control credit losses as a strictly regulated multi-level process, in which each division is assigned with specific objectives, tasks, functions, formally enshrined in the relevant lists, job descriptions and other legal documents.

  19. Partial differential equations in action from modelling to theory

    CERN Document Server

    Salsa, Sandro

    2016-01-01

    The book is intended as an advanced undergraduate or first-year graduate course for students from various disciplines, including applied mathematics, physics and engineering. It has evolved from courses offered on partial differential equations (PDEs) over the last several years at the Politecnico di Milano. These courses had a twofold purpose: on the one hand, to teach students to appreciate the interplay between theory and modeling in problems arising in the applied sciences, and on the other to provide them with a solid theoretical background in numerical methods, such as finite elements. Accordingly, this textbook is divided into two parts. The first part, chapters 2 to 5, is more elementary in nature and focuses on developing and studying basic problems from the macro-areas of diffusion, propagation and transport, waves and vibrations. In turn the second part, chapters 6 to 11, concentrates on the development of Hilbert spaces methods for the variational formulation and the analysis of (mainly) linear bo...

  20. Risk and Management Control: A Partial Least Square Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    Risk and economic theory goes many year back (e.g. to Keynes & Knight 1921) and risk/uncertainty belong to one of the explanations for the existence of the firm (Coarse, 1937). The present financial crisis going on in the past years have re-accentuated risk and the need of coherence...... and interrelations between risk and areas within management accounting. The idea is that management accounting should be able to conduct a valid feed forward but also predictions for decision making including risk. This study reports the test of a theoretical model using partial least squares (PLS) on survey data...... and a external attitude dimension. The results have important implications for both management control research and for the management control systems design for the way accountants consider the element of risk in their different tasks, both operational and strategic. Specifically, it seems that different risk...

  1. Optimal difference-based estimation for partially linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Zhou, Yuejin; Cheng, Yebin; Dai, Wenlin; Tong, Tiejun

    2017-01-01

    Difference-based methods have attracted increasing attention for analyzing partially linear models in the recent literature. In this paper, we first propose to solve the optimal sequence selection problem in difference-based estimation for the linear component. To achieve the goal, a family of new sequences and a cross-validation method for selecting the adaptive sequence are proposed. We demonstrate that the existing sequences are only extreme cases in the proposed family. Secondly, we propose a new estimator for the residual variance by fitting a linear regression method to some difference-based estimators. Our proposed estimator achieves the asymptotic optimal rate of mean squared error. Simulation studies also demonstrate that our proposed estimator performs better than the existing estimator, especially when the sample size is small and the nonparametric function is rough.

  2. Partial differential equations in action from modelling to theory

    CERN Document Server

    Salsa, Sandro

    2015-01-01

    The book is intended as an advanced undergraduate or first-year graduate course for students from various disciplines, including applied mathematics, physics and engineering. It has evolved from courses offered on partial differential equations (PDEs) over the last several years at the Politecnico di Milano. These courses had a twofold purpose: on the one hand, to teach students to appreciate the interplay between theory and modeling in problems arising in the applied sciences, and on the other to provide them with a solid theoretical background in numerical methods, such as finite elements. Accordingly, this textbook is divided into two parts. The first part, chapters 2 to 5, is more elementary in nature and focuses on developing and studying basic problems from the macro-areas of diffusion, propagation and transport, waves and vibrations. In turn the second part, chapters 6 to 11, concentrates on the development of Hilbert spaces methods for the variational formulation and the analysis of (mainly) linear bo...

  3. Optimal difference-based estimation for partially linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Zhou, Yuejin

    2017-12-16

    Difference-based methods have attracted increasing attention for analyzing partially linear models in the recent literature. In this paper, we first propose to solve the optimal sequence selection problem in difference-based estimation for the linear component. To achieve the goal, a family of new sequences and a cross-validation method for selecting the adaptive sequence are proposed. We demonstrate that the existing sequences are only extreme cases in the proposed family. Secondly, we propose a new estimator for the residual variance by fitting a linear regression method to some difference-based estimators. Our proposed estimator achieves the asymptotic optimal rate of mean squared error. Simulation studies also demonstrate that our proposed estimator performs better than the existing estimator, especially when the sample size is small and the nonparametric function is rough.

  4. PERMINTAAN BERAS DI PROVINSI JAMBI (Penerapan Partial Adjustment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasi Riyanto

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of price of rice, flour prices, population, income of population and demand of rice for a year earlier on rice demand, demand rice elasticity and rice demand prediction in Jambi Province. This study uses secondary data, including time series data for 22 years from 1988 until 2009. The study used some variables, consist of rice demand (Qdt, the price of rice (Hb, the price of wheat flour (Hg, population (Jp, the income of the population (PDRB and demand for rice the previous year (Qdt-1. The make of this study are multiple regression and dynamic analysis a Partial Adjustment Model, where the demand for rice is the dependent variable and the price of rice, flour prices, population, income population and demand of rice last year was the independent variable. Partial Adjustment Model analysis results showed that the effect of changes in prices of rice and flour are not significant to changes in demand for rice. The population and demand of rice the previous year has positive and significant impact on demand for rice, while revenues have negative and significant population of rice demand. Variable price of rice, earning population and the price of flour is inelastic the demand of rice, because rice is not a normal good but as a necessity so that there is no substitution of goods (replacement of rice with other commodities in Jambi Province. Based on the analysis, it is recommended to the government to be able to control the rate of population increase given the variable number of people as one of the factors that affect demand for rice.It is expected that the government also began to socialize in a lifestyle of non-rice food consumption to control the increasing amount of demand for rice. Last suggestion, the government developed a diversification of staple foods other than rice.

  5. Integration Of Company’s Financial Data In Credit Risk Assessment Using A Multidimensional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria – Monica Haralambie

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a detailed overview from theoretical and practical perspectives of a scoring system used by a financial institution in assessing the credit risk of a corporate client. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the importance of a scoring system for a credit institution when approving a loan application of a potential borrower. The complexity and importance of the topic makes it a subject of high interest for all type of credit institutions. We believe that through this work we were able to bring into discussion only a part of the specific issues related to credit risk management scoring systems and we believe that this work represents a support for future research

  6. Consistent Partial Least Squares Path Modeling via Regularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunho Jung

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Partial least squares (PLS path modeling is a component-based structural equation modeling that has been adopted in social and psychological research due to its data-analytic capability and flexibility. A recent methodological advance is consistent PLS (PLSc, designed to produce consistent estimates of path coefficients in structural models involving common factors. In practice, however, PLSc may frequently encounter multicollinearity in part because it takes a strategy of estimating path coefficients based on consistent correlations among independent latent variables. PLSc has yet no remedy for this multicollinearity problem, which can cause loss of statistical power and accuracy in parameter estimation. Thus, a ridge type of regularization is incorporated into PLSc, creating a new technique called regularized PLSc. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of regularized PLSc as compared to its non-regularized counterpart in terms of power and accuracy. The results show that our regularized PLSc is recommended for use when serious multicollinearity is present.

  7. Modeling of termokinetic oscillations at partial oxidation of methane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arutyunov, A. V.; Belyaev, A. A.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Nefedov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    Partial oxidation of natural gas at moderate temperatures below 1500 K has significant interest for a number of industrial applications. But such processes can proceed at different unstable regimes including oscillating modes. Nonlinear phenomena at partial oxidation of methane were observed at different conditions. The investigation of the complex nonlinear system of equations that describes this process is a real method to insure its stability at industrial conditions and, at the same time, is an effective tool for its further enhancement. Numerical analysis of methane oxidation kinetics in the continuous stirred-tank reactor, with the use of detailed kinetic model has shown the possibility of the appearance of oscillating modes in the appropriate range of reaction parameters that characterize the composition, pressure, reagents flow, thermophysical features of the system, and geometry of the reactor. The appearance of oscillating modes is connected both with the reaction kinetics, heat release and sink and reagents introduction and removing. At that, oscillations appear only at a limited range of parameters, but can be accompanied by significant change in the yield of products. We have determined the range of initial temperature and pressure at which oscillations can be observed, if all other parameters remained fixed. The boundaries of existence of oscillations on the phase plane were calculated. It was shown that depending on the position inside the oscillation region the oscillations have different frequency and amplitude. It was reviled the role of heat exchange with the environment: at the absence of heat exchange the oscillating modes are impossible. In the vicinity of the boundary of phase range, where oscillations exist, significant change of concentration of some products were observed, for example, that of CO2, which in this case one of the principal products is. At that, insignificant increase in pressure not only change the character of CO2 behaving

  8. Groundwater flow modelling of an abandoned partially open repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bockgaard, Niclas (Golder Associates AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application, according to the nuclear activities act, for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The modelling study presented here serves as an input for analyses of so-called future human actions that may affect the repository. The objective of the work was to investigate the hydraulic influence of an abandoned partially open repository. The intention was to illustrate a pessimistic scenario of the effect of open tunnels in comparison to the reference closure of the repository. The effects of open tunnels were studied for two situations with different boundary conditions: A 'temperate' case with present-day boundary conditions and a generic future 'glacial' case with an ice sheet covering the repository. The results were summarized in the form of analyses of flow in and out from open tunnels, the effect on hydraulic head and flow in the surrounding rock volume, and transport performance measures of flow paths from the repository to surface

  9. Groundwater flow modelling of an abandoned partially open repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bockgaard, Niclas

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application, according to the nuclear activities act, for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The modelling study presented here serves as an input for analyses of so-called future human actions that may affect the repository. The objective of the work was to investigate the hydraulic influence of an abandoned partially open repository. The intention was to illustrate a pessimistic scenario of the effect of open tunnels in comparison to the reference closure of the repository. The effects of open tunnels were studied for two situations with different boundary conditions: A 'temperate' case with present-day boundary conditions and a generic future 'glacial' case with an ice sheet covering the repository. The results were summarized in the form of analyses of flow in and out from open tunnels, the effect on hydraulic head and flow in the surrounding rock volume, and transport performance measures of flow paths from the repository to surface

  10. Application of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations to Reservoir Property Modelling

    KAUST Repository

    Potsepaev, R.

    2010-09-06

    Existing algorithms of geostatistics for stochastic modelling of reservoir parameters require a mapping (the \\'uvt-transform\\') into the parametric space and reconstruction of a stratigraphic co-ordinate system. The parametric space can be considered to represent a pre-deformed and pre-faulted depositional environment. Existing approximations of this mapping in many cases cause significant distortions to the correlation distances. In this work we propose a coordinate free approach for modelling stochastic textures through the application of stochastic partial differential equations. By avoiding the construction of a uvt-transform and stratigraphic coordinates, one can generate realizations directly in the physical space in the presence of deformations and faults. In particular the solution of the modified Helmholtz equation driven by Gaussian white noise is a zero mean Gaussian stationary random field with exponential correlation function (in 3-D). This equation can be used to generate realizations in parametric space. In order to sample in physical space we introduce a stochastic elliptic PDE with tensor coefficients, where the tensor is related to correlation anisotropy and its variation is physical space.

  11. Factors Affecting the Behavior of University Community to Use Credit Card

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya Sari

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to gain insights and tested the factors that influence credit cards usage in university community of UPI through Theory of Planned Behavior model approach. Using Path Analysis to explain the direct and indirect influence of attitude, subjective norm and behavioral control to intention and behavior of credit card usage. The results showed all respondents have a positive attitude towards credit cards usage, with high influence of subjective norm, high behavior control, high intention to use credit cards and all respondents used credit cards wisely. There was positive and significant effect either simultaneously or partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavior control toward the intention to use credit card. The partial test results showed behavioral attitude has the greatest influence on the intention to use credit card. There was a positive and significant influence both simultaneously and partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control on default-risk debt behavior. The partial results showed that attitude gives the greatest influence on default debt risk behavior. The result also proved there was a positive and significant influence of the intention to use credit card on default debt risk behavior.

  12. Permintaan Beras di Provinsi Jambi (Penerapan Partial Adjustment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasi Riyanto

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of price of rice, flour prices, population, income of population and demand of rice for a year earlier on rice demand, demand rice elasticity and rice demand prediction in Jambi Province. This study uses secondary data, including time series data for 22 years from 1988 until 2009. The study used some variables, consist of rice demand (Qdt, the price of rice (Hb, the price of wheat flour (Hg, population (Jp, the income of the population (PDRB and demand for rice the previous year (Qdt-1. The make of this study are multiple regression and dynamic analysis  a Partial Adjustment Model, where the demand for rice is the dependent variable and the price of rice, flour prices, population, income population and demand of rice last year was the independent variable. Partial Adjustment Model analysis results showed that the effect of changes in prices of rice  and flour are not significant  to  changes in demand for rice. The population and demand of rice the previous year has positive and significant impact on demand for rice, while revenues have negative and significant population of rice demand. Variable price of rice, earning population and the price of flour is inelastic the demand of rice, because rice is not a normal good but as a necessity so that there is no substitution of goods (replacement of rice with other commodities in Jambi Province. Based on the analysis, it is recommended to the government to be able to control the rate of population increase given the variable number of people as one of the factors that affect demand for rice.It is expected that the  government also began  to  socialize  in a lifestyle  of  non-rice food consumption to control the increasing amount of demand for rice. Last suggestion, the government developed a diversification of staple foods other than rice. Keywords: Demand, Rice, Income Population

  13. Microstrip natural wave spectrum mathematical model using partial inversion method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pogarsky, S.A.; Litvinenko, L.N.; Prosvirnin, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    It is generally agreed that both microstrip lines itself and different discontinuities based on microstrips are the most difficult problem for accurate electrodynamic analysis. Over the last years much has been published about principles and accurate (or full wave) methods of microstrip lines investigations. The growing interest for this problem may be explained by the microstrip application in the millimeter-wave range for purpose of realizing interconnects and a variety of passive components. At these higher operating rating frequencies accurate component modeling becomes more critical. A creation, examination and experimental verification of the accurate method for planar electrodynamical structures natural wave spectrum investigations are the objects of this manuscript. The moment method with partial inversion operator method using may be considered as a basical way for solving this problem. This method is outlook for accurate analysis of different planar discontinuities in microstrip: such as step discontinuities, microstrip turns, Y- and X-junctions and etc., substrate space steps dielectric constants and other anisotropy types

  14. Study and optimization of the partial discharges in capacitor model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The initial potential as well as the temperature are known to influence the partial discharge ... The development of electrostatic industry has ... the liquid impregnation. One of the ..... the Surface of Corona charged Uniforms layers of HIPS.

  15. Modeling Item-Level and Step-Level Invariance Effects in Polytomous Items Using the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gattamorta, Karina A.; Penfield, Randall D.; Myers, Nicholas D.

    2012-01-01

    Measurement invariance is a common consideration in the evaluation of the validity and fairness of test scores when the tested population contains distinct groups of examinees, such as examinees receiving different forms of a translated test. Measurement invariance in polytomous items has traditionally been evaluated at the item-level,…

  16. Reactor modeling and process analysis for partial oxidation of natural gas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albrecht, B.A.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis analyses a novel process of partial oxidation of natural gas and develops a numerical tool for the partial oxidation reactor modeling. The proposed process generates syngas in an integrated plant of a partial oxidation reactor, a syngas turbine and an air separation unit. This is called

  17. An EOQ Model with Stock-Dependent Demand under Two Levels of Trade Credit and Time Value of Money

    OpenAIRE

    H.A.O. Jia-Qin; M.O. Jiangtao

    2013-01-01

    Since the value of money changes with time, it is necessary to take account of the influence of time factor in making the replenishment policy. In this study, to investigate the influence of the time value of money to the inventory strategy, an inventory system for deteriorating items with stock-dependent demand is investigated under two levels of trade credit. The method to efficiently determine the optimal cycle time is presented. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the model and...

  18. Trade credit: Elusive insurance of firm growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bams, Dennis; Bos, Jaap; Pisa, Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    Firms depend heavily on trade credit. This paper introduces a trade credit network into a structural model of the economy. In an empirical analysis of the model, we find that trade credit is an elusive insurance: as long as a firm is financially unconstrained and times are good, more trade credit

  19. Effects of trust fund model credit intervention on welfare of farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... recommended that the administrative bottlenecks associated with fund release and processing of interest drawback be addressed. Also, amount loanable should be increased, while condition of collateral counterpart funding be relaxed. Keywords: Agricultural credit, Per capital expenditure, Core poor, Household welfare ...

  20. Stochastic Modeling and Generation of Partially Polarized or Partially Coherent Electromagnetic Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Brynmor; Kim, Edward; Piepmeier, Jeffrey; Hildebrand, Peter H. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Many new Earth remote-sensing instruments are embracing both the advantages and added complexity that result from interferometric or fully polarimetric operation. To increase instrument understanding and functionality a model of the signals these instruments measure is presented. A stochastic model is used as it recognizes the non-deterministic nature of any real-world measurements while also providing a tractable mathematical framework. A stationary, Gaussian-distributed model structure is proposed. Temporal and spectral correlation measures provide a statistical description of the physical properties of coherence and polarization-state. From this relationship the model is mathematically defined. The model is shown to be unique for any set of physical parameters. A method of realizing the model (necessary for applications such as synthetic calibration-signal generation) is given and computer simulation results are presented. The signals are constructed using the output of a multi-input multi-output linear filter system, driven with white noise.

  1. Bayesian inference for partially identified models exploring the limits of limited data

    CERN Document Server

    Gustafson, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Identification What Is against Us? What Is for Us? Some Simple Examples of Partially Identified ModelsThe Road Ahead The Structure of Inference in Partially Identified Models Bayesian Inference The Structure of Posterior Distributions in PIMs Computational Strategies Strength of Bayesian Updating, Revisited Posterior MomentsCredible Intervals Evaluating the Worth of Inference Partial Identification versus Model Misspecification The Siren Call of Identification Comp

  2. A hybrid model using decision tree and neural network for credit scoring problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Arzy Soltan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays credit scoring is an important issue for financial and monetary organizations that has substantial impact on reduction of customer attraction risks. Identification of high risk customer can reduce finished cost. An accurate classification of customer and low type 1 and type 2 errors have been investigated in many studies. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a new method, which chooses the best neural network architecture based on one column hidden layer MLP, multiple columns hidden layers MLP, RBFN and decision trees and ensembling them with voting methods. The proposed method of this paper is run on an Australian credit data and a private bank in Iran called Export Development Bank of Iran and the results are used for making solution in low customer attraction risks.

  3. Study and optimization of the partial discharges in capacitor model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that the main cause of failure of these devices is the appearance of partial discharges initiated on edges of armatures. These devices can quickly slam if discharges occur continuously during the liquid impregnation. One of the criteria for selecting impregnating liquids is the behavior of gas bubbles when discharges occur.

  4. Partial delegation in a model of currency crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Boinet, V

    2002-01-01

    Stressing the inßuence of expected devaluation on currency crises, this paper shows that, in a Þxed exchange-rate system with an escape clause, partial delegation of exchange-rate policy to an inßation-averse central banker reduces the probability of crisis.

  5. 49 CFR 536.4 - Credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL ECONOMY CREDITS § 536.4 Credits. (a) Type and vintage... category, and model year of origin (vintage). (b) Application of credits. All credits earned and applied are calculated, per 49 U.S.C. 32903(c), in tenths of a mile per gallon by which the average fuel...

  6. Partial-factor Energy Efficiency Model of Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Nugroho Fathul; Syaifudin Noor

    2018-01-01

    This study employs the partial-factor energy efficiency to reveal the relationships between energy efficiency and the consumption of both, the renewable energy and non-renewable energy in Indonesia. The findings confirm that consumption of non-renewable energy will increase the inefficiency in energy consumption. On the other side, the use of renewable energy will increase the energy efficiency in Indonesia. As the result, the Government of Indonesia may address this issue by providing more s...

  7. Strategic production modeling for defective items with imperfect inspection process, rework, and sales return under two-level trade credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditi Khanna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Quality decisions are one of the major decisions in inventory management. It affects customer’s demand, loyalty and customer satisfaction and also inventory costs. Every manufacturing process is inherent to have some chance causes of variation which may lead to some defectives in the lot. So, in order to cater the customers with faultless products, an inspection process is inevitable, which may also be prone to errors. Thus for an operations manager, maintaining the quality of the lot and the screening process becomes a challenging task, when his objective is to determine the optimal order quantity for the inventory system. Besides these operational tasks, the goal is also to increase the customer base which eventually leads to higher profits. So, as a promotional tool, trade credit is being offered by both the retailer and supplier to their respective customers to encourage more frequent and higher volume purchases. Thus taking into account of these facts, a strategic production model is formulated here to study the combined effects of imperfect quality items, faulty inspection process, rework process, sales return under two level trade credit. The present study is a general framework for many articles and classical EPQ model. An analytical method is employed which jointly optimizes the retailer’s credit period and order quantity, so as to maximize the expected total profit per unit time. To study the behavior and application of the model, a numerical example has been cited and a comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been performed. The model can be widely applicable in manufacturing industries like textile, footwear, plastics, electronics, furniture etc.

  8. An eoq model for weibull deteriorating item with ramp type demand and salvage value under trade credit system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalit Mohan Pradhan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the present competitive business scenario researchers have developed various inventory models for deteriorating items considering various practical situations for better inventory control. Permissible delay in payments with various demands and deteriorations is considerably a new concept introduced in developing various inventory models. These models are very useful for both the consumers and the manufacturer. Methods: In the present work an inventory model has been developed for a three parameter Weibull deteriorating item with ramp type demand and salvage value under trade credit system. Here we have considered a single item for developing the model. Results and conclusion: Optimal order quantity, optimal cycle time and total variable cost during a cycle have been derived for the proposed inventory model. The results obtained in this paper have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples and sensitivity analysis.   

  9. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2014-01-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based

  10. The EPQ model under conditions of two levels of trade credit and limited storage capacity in supply chain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kun-Jen

    2013-09-01

    An inventory problem involves a lot of factors influencing inventory decisions. To understand it, the traditional economic production quantity (EPQ) model plays rather important role for inventory analysis. Although the traditional EPQ models are still widely used in industry, practitioners frequently question validities of assumptions of these models such that their use encounters challenges and difficulties. So, this article tries to present a new inventory model by considering two levels of trade credit, finite replenishment rate and limited storage capacity together to relax the basic assumptions of the traditional EPQ model to improve the environment of the use of it. Keeping in mind cost-minimisation strategy, four easy-to-use theorems are developed to characterise the optimal solution. Finally, the sensitivity analyses are executed to investigate the effects of the various parameters on ordering policies and the annual total relevant costs of the inventory system.

  11. An EOQ model for a deteriorating item with non-linear demand under inflation and a trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manna S.K.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops an infinite time-horizon deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ inventory model with deterioration based on discounted cash flows (DCF approach where demand rate is assumed to be non-linear over time. The effects of inflation and time-value of money are also taken into account under a trade-credit policy of type "α/T1 net T". The results are illustrated with a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out.

  12. Credit Card Fraud Detection: A Realistic Modeling and a Novel Learning Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Pozzolo, Andrea; Boracchi, Giacomo; Caelen, Olivier; Alippi, Cesare; Bontempi, Gianluca

    2017-09-14

    Detecting frauds in credit card transactions is perhaps one of the best testbeds for computational intelligence algorithms. In fact, this problem involves a number of relevant challenges, namely: concept drift (customers' habits evolve and fraudsters change their strategies over time), class imbalance (genuine transactions far outnumber frauds), and verification latency (only a small set of transactions are timely checked by investigators). However, the vast majority of learning algorithms that have been proposed for fraud detection rely on assumptions that hardly hold in a real-world fraud-detection system (FDS). This lack of realism concerns two main aspects: 1) the way and timing with which supervised information is provided and 2) the measures used to assess fraud-detection performance. This paper has three major contributions. First, we propose, with the help of our industrial partner, a formalization of the fraud-detection problem that realistically describes the operating conditions of FDSs that everyday analyze massive streams of credit card transactions. We also illustrate the most appropriate performance measures to be used for fraud-detection purposes. Second, we design and assess a novel learning strategy that effectively addresses class imbalance, concept drift, and verification latency. Third, in our experiments, we demonstrate the impact of class unbalance and concept drift in a real-world data stream containing more than 75 million transactions, authorized over a time window of three years.

  13. Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Song

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the qagriculture, rural areas and farmersq problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this paper contains four aspects: the classification and characteristics of credit risk, the problems and factors of credit risk, the model and evaluation of credit risk, the countermeasures and suggestions of credit risk. This paper reviews the research of credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives from the above four aspects, and makes a brief summary.

  14. Credit concession through credit scoring: Analysis and application proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oriol Amat

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The study herein develops and tests a credit scoring model which can help financial institutions in assessing credit requests.  Design/methodology/approach: The empirical study has the objective of answering two questions: (1 Which ratios better discriminate the companies based on their being solvent or insolvent? and (2 What is the relative importance of these ratios? To do this, several statistical techniques with a multifactorial focus have been used (Multivariate Analysis of Variance, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit Models. Several samples of companies have been used in order to obtain and to test the model.  Findings: Through the application of several statistical techniques, the credit scoring model has been proved to be effective in discriminating between good and bad creditors.  Research limitations:  This study focuses on manufacturing, commercial and services companies of all sizes in Spain; Therefore, the conclusions may differ for other geographical locations. Practical implications:  Because credit is one of the main drivers of growth, a solid credit scoring model can help financial institutions assessing to whom to grant credit and to whom not to grant credit. Social implications: Because of the growing importance of credit for our society and the fear of granting it due to the latest financial turmoil, a solid credit scoring model can strengthen the trust toward the financial institutions assessment’s.  Originality/value: There is already a stream of literature related to credit scoring. However, this paper focuses on Spanish firms and proves the results of our model based on real data. The application of the model to detect the probability of default in loans is original.

  15. An Economic Order Quantity Model with Completely Backordering and Nondecreasing Demand under Two-Level Trade Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Molamohamadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the traditional inventory system, it was implicitly assumed that the buyer pays to the seller as soon as he receives the items. In today’s competitive industry, however, the seller usually offers the buyer a delay period to settle the account of the goods. Not only the seller but also the buyer may apply trade credit as a strategic tool to stimulate his customers’ demands. This paper investigates the effects of the latter policy, two-level trade credit, on a retailer’s optimal ordering decisions within the economic order quantity framework and allowable shortages. Unlike most of the previous studies, the demand function of the customers is considered to increase with time. The objective of the retailer’s inventory model is to maximize the profit. The replenishment decisions optimally are obtained using genetic algorithm. Two special cases of the proposed model are discussed and the impacts of parameters on the decision variables are finally investigated. Numerical examples demonstrate the profitability of the developed two-level supply chain with backorder.

  16. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric

  17. Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-02-15

    In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. An open Markov chain scheme model for a credit consumption portfolio fed by ARIMA and SARMA processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esquível, Manuel L.; Fernandes, José Moniz; Guerreiro, Gracinda R.

    2016-06-01

    We introduce a schematic formalism for the time evolution of a random population entering some set of classes and such that each member of the population evolves among these classes according to a scheme based on a Markov chain model. We consider that the flow of incoming members is modeled by a time series and we detail the time series structure of the elements in each of the classes. We present a practical application to data from a credit portfolio of a Cape Verdian bank; after modeling the entering population in two different ways - namely as an ARIMA process and as a deterministic sigmoid type trend plus a SARMA process for the residues - we simulate the behavior of the population and compare the results. We get that the second method is more accurate in describing the behavior of the populations when compared to the observed values in a direct simulation of the Markov chain.

  19. Earned Income Tax Credit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.M. van Oers; R.A. de Mooij (Ruud)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractIn recent policy discussions in the Netherlands, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been put forward as an effective instrument to reduce the unemployment rate among low-skilled workers. Using the MIMIC model, this article shows that a targeted EITC at low incomes indeed seems

  20. Stochastic partial differential equations a modeling, white noise functional approach

    CERN Document Server

    Holden, Helge; Ubøe, Jan; Zhang, Tusheng

    1996-01-01

    This book is based on research that, to a large extent, started around 1990, when a research project on fluid flow in stochastic reservoirs was initiated by a group including some of us with the support of VISTA, a research coopera­ tion between the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters and Den norske stats oljeselskap A.S. (Statoil). The purpose of the project was to use stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) to describe the flow of fluid in a medium where some of the parameters, e.g., the permeability, were stochastic or "noisy". We soon realized that the theory of SPDEs at the time was insufficient to handle such equations. Therefore it became our aim to develop a new mathematically rigorous theory that satisfied the following conditions. 1) The theory should be physically meaningful and realistic, and the corre­ sponding solutions should make sense physically and should be useful in applications. 2) The theory should be general enough to handle many of the interesting SPDEs that occur in r...

  1. Growth modeling of Cryptomeria japonica by partial trunk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinícius Morais Coutinho

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the growth pattern of Cryptomeria japonica increment (L. F. D. Don. and to describe the probability distribution in stands stablished at the municipality of Rio Negro, Paraná State. Twenty trees were sampled in a 34 years-old stand, with 3 m x 2 m spacing. Wood disks were taken from each tree at 1.3 m above the ground (DBH to perform partial stem analysis. Diameter growth series without bark were used to generate the average cumulative growth curves for DBH (cm, mean annual increment (MAI and current annual increment (CAI. From the increment data, the frequency distribution was evaluated by means of probability density functions (pdfs. The mean annual increment for DBH was 0.78 cm year-1 and the age of intersection of CAI and MAI curves was between the 7th and 8th years. It was found that near 43% of the species increments are concentrated bellow 0.5 cm. The results are useful to define appropriate management strategies for the species for sites similar to the studying regions, defining for example ages of silvicultural intervention, such as thinning.

  2. WHAT INFLUENCE CREDIT CARD DEBTS IN YOUNG CONSUMERS IN MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Shah ALAM; Ruzita Abdul RAHIM; Ridhwanul HAQ; Atiqur Rahman KHAN

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines empirically antecedents of the credit card debts in young consumers in Malaysia. We examine whether easy access to credit card, credit card related knowledge, aggressive promotion by credit card industry, low minimum payment requirement and attitude towards credit cards influence credit card debts in the younger generation. Regression model was used to meet the objectives. These findings based on a sample of 240 young credit card holders, show that the factors that affect ...

  3. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  4. Partial-order reduction for GPU model checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neele, T.S.; Wijs, A.J.; Bošnački, D.; van de Pol, J.C.

    2016-01-01

    Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicitstate model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partialorder reduction. We propose

  5. Savings and credit: women's informal groups as models for change in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickrama, K A; Keith, P M

    1994-04-01

    The aim of this research was to examine the financial success of newly formed women's groups involved in Sri Lanka's Hambantota Integrated Rural Development Program (HIRDEP). The project was initiated in July 1986 with 20 trained social mobilizers, who were each assigned to a village community of about 100 families. Mobilizers were selected from village volunteers involved in development activities. The study population included 78 women's groups, with an average size of 7 persons, from 19 villages with populations under the poverty level and people receiving food stamps. Measures of group performance included the exchange of labor among group members, the collective purchase of raw materials and consumer goods, and collective marketing. Service use was differentiated by extension services, inputs, assets, and general benefits. Financial activity was measured as the rupee size of the fund and amounts of loans. 54 groups were engaged in nonfarm activity, and most groups had women social mobilizers. About 50% of women's groups had received all four service types. Funding ranged from Rs. 240 to Rs. 9500. The average of the credit loans per month was Rs. 408 per group. 85% of the loans were used for production, investment, or repayment of old loans. Younger age groups affected the slower growth of funds but were more efficient in loaning money, acquiring services, and marketing activities collectively. Young social mobilizers were associated with efficiency of credit disbursement. Diversity of collective activities was related to the size and growth rate of funds. Multivariate analysis revealed that the growth rate of funds was primarily related to the personal income of members and the level of training of social mobilizers. Members were able to obtain loans equal to about 50% of their monthly income at an average interest rate of about 5%, which was three to four times less than normally available. 47% of the variance in the size of the fund was explained by average

  6. ANALYSIS OF MODELS OF EARLY DEBT REPAYMENT IN THE Generalized CREDIT TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the patterns of early repayment in multi-period credit transactions. Considered one of the most common ways of conversion of unpaid interest for early repayment, so-called 78 rule. The relationship of this rule with the linear approximation of the exact value; redeemable debt is determined. The analysis of the maximum excess payment of interest on 78 rule. It has been shown how interest payment on 78 rule depended on the time of early repayment. Early repayment of debt is an agreement under which the borrower pays to the lender amount of money equal to the current balance (as of loan account. Then further regular payments cease and the contract terminates. However, the amount of outstanding debt is determined by the structure of prescription charges. So in the uniform schemes of repayment of consumer credit each payment contains the same part of principal amounts and the total interest. In case of early repayment the Bank loses a significant fraction of the expected interest payments. Therefore, in practice, often used so-called accelerated schemes of interest payments. One of them is 78 rule. Use the 78 rule is simple and straightforward. The name of the rule is due to the fact that the sum of the numbers 12 monthly payments is 78. In the schemes of consumer loan with a term of one year interest payment for the current month is equal to m/78 of the total amount of interest payments, where m is the number of remaining payments. The rule name is stored and in the more general case with an arbitrary number of payments. In general interest payment is determined by the relative weight of the total amount of interest in each payment. In uniform schemes it is constant. In accelerated with a particular speed decreases. Therefore, additional cash expenses by the 78 rule may be considered as additional penalties for early repayment of the debt. It this article is shown how this penalty depends on time before maturity. It is shown that

  7. Application of the business model Canvas in Microenterprises from Partners of the Savings and Credit Cooperative Luz del Valle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Javier Monroy Espinosa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The "Luz del Valle" Savings and Credit Cooperative is a financial institution with five thousand microentrepreneurial partners who have business units. These business units, generally informal, do not have a defined organizational structure or adequate management tools, which influences in the presence of economic problems such as arrears and non-payment of contracted obligations, mainly as a result of a low level of sales. Due to this situation, it is important for cooperatives to support their partners in finding solutions. This is part of the cooperative principles and values of mutual aid, social responsibility and education, training and information for its members, team leaders, managers and employees; these universal principles established by the International Cooperative Alliance (ICA are considered by the savings and credit cooperative "Luz del Valle" as strategies to accompany its partners in the development and growth of their business units. The cooperative organizes a Christmas Fair annually, where 60 microentrepreneurs participate. This event was the opportunity to develop, together with the Metropolitan University of Ecuador, a project that, in its first phase, trained in the formulation of strategies based on the application of the Business Model Canvas; the teaching of this tool, which allows creating, capturing and providing value for clients, was supported by the university community and the program of linkage with society that develops the aforementioned institution; the evaluation of the impact and the economic results are contemplated in a second phase.

  8. Students' Use of Decision-Making Strategies with Regard to Socioscientific Issues: An Application of the Rasch Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, Sabina; Bogeholz, Susanne

    2010-01-01

    Decision making about socioscientific issues is an important aspect of modern science education worldwide. Among the many topics that represent socioscientific issues, issues relating to the sustainable development of our environment are one crucial topic. However, difficulties exist with respect to the assessment of teaching outcomes related to…

  9. The Development of a Secondary-Level Solo Wind Instrument Performance Rubric Using the Multifaceted Rasch Partial Credit Measurement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesolowski, Brian C.; Amend, Ross M.; Barnstead, Thomas S.; Edwards, Andrew S.; Everhart, Matthew; Goins, Quentin R.; Grogan, Robert J., III; Herceg, Amanda M.; Jenkins, S. Ira; Johns, Paul M.; McCarver, Christopher J.; Schaps, Robin E.; Sorrell, Gary W.; Williams, Jonathan D.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe the development of a valid and reliable rubric to assess secondary-level solo instrumental music performance based on principles of invariant measurement. The research questions that guided this study included (1) What is the psychometric quality (i.e., validity, reliability, and precision) of a scale…

  10. A Comparison of Computer-Based Classification Testing Approaches Using Mixed-Format Tests with the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jiseon

    2010-01-01

    Classification testing has been widely used to make categorical decisions by determining whether an examinee has a certain degree of ability required by established standards. As computer technologies have developed, classification testing has become more computerized. Several approaches have been proposed and investigated in the context of…

  11. Critical analysis of realibility of the model of investment credit approval in agriculture and food processing industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barjaktarović Lidija

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Investments are funds which are invested in certain manufacturing goods, revenue on investments, the process of investment, subject in which it is invested, and which is obtained as a result of the assessment of investment. Every rational investor entering into an investment expects some benefits. Entry decision into a particular investment project carries a business risk, both for investors and for the bank as co-financier of the project. Accordingly, the subject of this paper-research is a critical analysis of the reliability of the model of investment credit approval in agriculture and food processing industry (MICA used by local banks when considering whether to financially support investment needs of large corporate customers in the segment of secondary agriculture production and food processing industry. Applying the model of the correlation analysis, the degree of interconnectedness of indicators of the quality of assets and business performances of Serbian banking sector are quantified.

  12. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab

    2012-10-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric component and a profiling estimator of the parametric component of the model and derive their asymptotic properties. Specifically, we show the consistency of the nonparametric functional estimates and derive the asymptotic expansion of the estimates of the parametric component. We illustrate the performance of our methodology using a simulation study and a real data application.

  13. Mathematical analysis of partial differential equations modeling electrostatic MEMS

    CERN Document Server

    Esposito, Pierpaolo; Guo, Yujin

    2010-01-01

    Micro- and nanoelectromechanical systems (MEMS and NEMS), which combine electronics with miniature-size mechanical devices, are essential components of modern technology. It is the mathematical model describing "electrostatically actuated" MEMS that is addressed in this monograph. Even the simplified models that the authors deal with still lead to very interesting second- and fourth-order nonlinear elliptic equations (in the stationary case) and to nonlinear parabolic equations (in the dynamic case). While nonlinear eigenvalue problems-where the stationary MEMS models fit-are a well-developed

  14. Emulating facial biomechanics using multivariate partial least squares surrogate models

    OpenAIRE

    Martens, Harald; Wu, Tim; Hunter, Peter; Mithraratne, Kumar

    2014-01-01

    This is the author’s final, accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. Locked until 2015-05-06 A detailed biomechanical model of the human face driven by a network of muscles is a useful tool in relating the muscle activities to facial deformations. However, lengthy computational times often hinder its applications in practical settings. The objective of this study is to replace precise but computationally demanding biomechanical model by a much faster multivariate meta-mode...

  15. the Modeling of Hydraulic Jump Generated Partially on Sloping Apron

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaker Abdulatif Jalil

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling aims to characterize system behavior and achieve simulation close as possible of the reality. The rapid energy exchange in supercritical flow to generate quiet or subcritical flow in hydraulic jump phenomenon is important in design of hydraulic structures. Experimental and numerical modeling is done on type B hydraulic jump which starts first on sloping bed and its end on horizontal bed.  Four different apron slopes are used, for each one of these slopes the jump is generated on different locations by controlling the tail water depth.  Modelling validation is based on 120 experimental runs which they show that there is reliability. The air volume fraction which creates in through hydraulic jump varied between 0.18 and 0.28. While the energy exchanges process take place within 6.6, 6.1, 5.8, 5.5 of the average relative jump height for apron slopes of 0.18, 0.14, 0.10, 0.07 respectively. Within the limitations of this study, mathematical prediction model for relative hydraulic jump height is suggested.The model having an acceptable coefficient of determination.

  16. A discrete model of a modified Burgers' partial differential equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickens, R. E.; Shoosmith, J. N.

    1990-01-01

    A new finite-difference scheme is constructed for a modified Burger's equation. Three special cases of the equation are considered, and the 'exact' difference schemes for the space- and time-independent forms of the equation are presented, along with the diffusion-free case of Burger's equation modeled by a difference equation. The desired difference scheme is then obtained by imposing on any difference model of the initial equation the requirement that, in the appropriate limits, its difference scheme must reduce the results of the obtained equations.

  17. An Inventory Model for Deteriorating Item with Reliability Consideration and Trade Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Singh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In today’s global market every body want to buy products of high level quality and to achieve a high level product quality supplier have to invest in improving reliability of production process. In present article we have studies reliable production process with stock dependent unit production and holding cost. Demand is exponential function of time and infinite production process wit non- instantaneous deterioration rate are considered in this paper. Whole study has been done under the effect of trade credit. The main objective of this paper is to optimize the total relevant cost for reliable production process. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis is given at the end of this paper.   Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

  18. Models & Searches of CPT Violation: a personal, very partial, list

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavromatos, Nick E.

    2018-01-01

    In this talk, first I motivate theoretically, and then I review the phenomenology of, some models entailing CPT Violation (CPTV). The latter is argued to be responsible for the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Cosmos, and may owe its origin to either Lorentz-violating background geometries, whose effects are strong in early epochs of the Universe but very weak today, being temperature dependent in general, or to an ill-defined CPT generator in some quantum gravity models entailing decoherence of quantum matter as a result of quantum degrees of freedom in the gravity sector that are inaccessible to the low-energy observers. In particular, for the latter category of CPTV, I argue that entangled states of neutral mesons (Kaons or B-systems), of central relevance to KLOE-2 experiment, can provide smoking-gun sensitive tests or even falsify some of these models. If CPT is ill-defined one may also encounter violations of the spin-statistics theorem, with possible consequences for the Pauli Exclusion Principle, which I only briefly touch upon.

  19. Models & Searches of CPT Violation: a personal, very partial, list

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mavromatos Nick E.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this talk, first I motivate theoretically, and then I review the phenomenology of, some models entailing CPT Violation (CPTV. The latter is argued to be responsible for the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Cosmos, and may owe its origin to either Lorentz-violating background geometries, whose effects are strong in early epochs of the Universe but very weak today, being temperature dependent in general, or to an ill-defined CPT generator in some quantum gravity models entailing decoherence of quantum matter as a result of quantum degrees of freedom in the gravity sector that are inaccessible to the low-energy observers. In particular, for the latter category of CPTV, I argue that entangled states of neutral mesons (Kaons or B-systems, of central relevance to KLOE-2 experiment, can provide smoking-gun sensitive tests or even falsify some of these models. If CPT is ill-defined one may also encounter violations of the spin-statistics theorem, with possible consequences for the Pauli Exclusion Principle, which I only briefly touch upon.

  20. Partially collisional model of the Titan hydrogen torus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilton, D.A.

    1987-01-01

    A numerical model was developed for atomic hydrogen densities in the Titan hydrogen torus. The effects of occasional collisions were included in order to accurately simulate physical conditions inferred from the Voyager 1 and 2 Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) results of Broadfoot et al. (1981) and Sandel et al. (1982). The model employed Lagrangian perturbation of orbital elements of hydrogen atoms launched from Titan and Monte Carlo simulation of collisions and loss mechanisms. The torus is found to be azimuthally symmetric with the density sharply peaked at Titan's orbit, and decreasing rapidly in the outward and perpendicular directions and more gradually inward from 17 to 5 R/sub s/. The energetic hydrogen atoms from Saturn's upper atmosphere, first predicted by Shemansky and Smith (1982), were also investigated. Collisions of these Saturnian atoms with the torus population do not contribute to the torus density, and will lead to a net loss of torus atoms if their launch speeds from Saturn extend above 40 km/sec. The Saturnian atoms produce a corona which was modeled using the theory of Chamberlain (1963)

  1. Soft sensor modelling by time difference, recursive partial least squares and adaptive model updating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Y; Xu, O; Yang, W; Zhou, L; Wang, J

    2017-01-01

    To investigate time-variant and nonlinear characteristics in industrial processes, a soft sensor modelling method based on time difference, moving-window recursive partial least square (PLS) and adaptive model updating is proposed. In this method, time difference values of input and output variables are used as training samples to construct the model, which can reduce the effects of the nonlinear characteristic on modelling accuracy and retain the advantages of recursive PLS algorithm. To solve the high updating frequency of the model, a confidence value is introduced, which can be updated adaptively according to the results of the model performance assessment. Once the confidence value is updated, the model can be updated. The proposed method has been used to predict the 4-carboxy-benz-aldehyde (CBA) content in the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) oxidation reaction process. The results show that the proposed soft sensor modelling method can reduce computation effectively, improve prediction accuracy by making use of process information and reflect the process characteristics accurately. (paper)

  2. A simple procedure to model water level fluctuations in partially inundated wetlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spieksma, JFM; Schouwenaars, JM

    When modelling groundwater behaviour in wetlands, there are specific problems related to the presence of open water in small-sized mosaic patterns. A simple quasi two-dimensional model to predict water level fluctuations in partially inundated wetlands is presented. In this model, the ratio between

  3. Calculus for cognitive scientists partial differential equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, James K

    2016-01-01

    This book shows cognitive scientists in training how mathematics, computer science and science can be usefully and seamlessly intertwined. It is a follow-up to the first two volumes on mathematics for cognitive scientists, and includes the mathematics and computational tools needed to understand how to compute the terms in the Fourier series expansions that solve the cable equation. The latter is derived from first principles by going back to cellular biology and the relevant biophysics.  A detailed discussion of ion movement through cellular membranes, and an explanation of how the equations that govern such ion movement leading to the standard transient cable equation are included. There are also solutions for the cable model using separation of variables, as well an explanation of why Fourier series converge and a description of the implementation of MatLab tools to compute the solutions. Finally, the standard Hodgkin - Huxley model is developed for an excitable neuron and is solved using MatLab.

  4. Completing the Remedial Sequence and College-Level Credit-Bearing Math: Comparing Binary, Cumulative, and Continuation Ratio Logistic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, J. Cody

    2016-01-01

    Mathematics is the most common subject area of remedial need and the majority of remedial math students never pass a college-level credit-bearing math class. The majorities of studies that investigate this phenomenon are conducted at community colleges and use some type of regression model; however, none have used a continuation ratio model. The…

  5. Quantitative analysis of CT brain images: a statistical model incorporating partial volume and beam hardening effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLoughlin, R.F.; Ryan, M.V.; Heuston, P.M.; McCoy, C.T.; Masterson, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate a statistical model for the quantitative analysis of computed tomographic brain images. Data were derived from standard sections in 34 normal studies. A model representing the intercranial pure tissue and partial volume areas, with allowance for beam hardening, was developed. The average percentage error in estimation of areas, derived from phantom tests using the model, was 28.47%. We conclude that our model is not sufficiently accurate to be of clinical use, even though allowance was made for partial volume and beam hardening effects. (author)

  6. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-05

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  8. Identification, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Characterizing the Indicators of Asset Structure in the Credit Institutions Operating in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel CALINICA

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to accurately characterize the dynamics of the structural indicators of the assets in the credit institutions operating in Romania through an empirical mathematical model of dual function: regulation and control. The model can be used to predict the future evolution of the economic processes involved, or to study how to act upon them (management in case of changes in the environment around them (e.g. the impact of reducing the minimum compulsory reserve requirements on credit etc.

  9. EOQ Model for Deteriorating Items with exponential time dependent Demand Rate under inflation when Supplier Credit Linked to Order Quantity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Prakash Tripathi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In paper (2004 Chang studied an inventory model under a situation in which the supplier provides the purchaser with a permissible delay of payments if the purchaser orders a large quantity. Tripathi (2011 also studied an inventory model with time dependent demand rate under which the supplier provides the purchaser with a permissible delay in payments. This paper is motivated by Chang (2004 and Tripathi (2011 paper extending their model for exponential time dependent demand rate. This study develops an inventory model under which the vendor provides the purchaser with a credit period; if the purchaser orders large quantity. In this chapter, demand rate is taken as exponential time dependent. Shortages are not allowed and effect of the inflation rate has been discussed. We establish an inventory model for deteriorating items if the order quantity is greater than or equal to a predetermined quantity. We then obtain optimal solution for finding optimal order quantity, optimal cycle time and optimal total relevant cost. Numerical examples are given for all different cases. Sensitivity of the variation of different parameters on the optimal solution is also discussed. Mathematica 7 software is used for finding numerical examples.

  10. Various verifying tests using full size partial models of PCCV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagata, Kaoru; Fukihara, Masaaki; Takemoto, Yasushi.

    1987-01-01

    The prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV) for Tsuruga No.2 plant of Japan Atomic Power Co. was adopted for the first time in Japan, and the necessity of experimental verification was pointed out about a number of items in the design and construction. In this report, the various tests carried out with full size models are described. The tendon system adopted for this PCCV is BBRV type, in which PC wires are bundled in parallel to make cables, and involves many matters inexperienced in Japan, such as the stretching capacity is as large as 1000 t class, the longest cable is 160 m, and it is the unbonded system of injecting rust inhibitor. It was demanded to confirm by testing the propriety of the small coefficient of friction at the time of stretching tendons. For the tests, the materials, equipment and their size were prepared all as those for actual works. The test works became the rehearsal of the actual prestressing works. Besides, by utilizing these full size test beds, the workability test on concrete at the time of their construction, the confirmation test on tendon strength and the safety of concrete at fixing part at the time of friction test, thereafter, greasing test, the simulation test of in-service inspection, and the thermal loading test on liners were carried out. The results of these tests are briefly reported. (Kako, I.)

  11. A new Bayesian model applied to cytogenetic partial body irradiation estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Vinnikov, Volodymyr A.; Rothkamm, Kai

    2016-01-01

    A new zero-inflated Poisson model is introduced for the estimation of partial body irradiation dose and fraction of body irradiated. The Bayes factors are introduced as tools to help determine whether a data set of chromosomal aberrations obtained from a blood sample reflects partial or whole body irradiation. Two examples of simulated cytogenetic radiation exposure data are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of this methodology in cytogenetic biological dosimetry. (authors)

  12. Partially nested designs in psychotherapy trials: A review of modeling developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterba, Sonya K

    2017-07-01

    Individually-randomized psychotherapy trials are often partially nested. For instance, individuals assigned to a treatment arm may be clustered into therapy groups for purposes of treatment administration, whereas individuals assigned to a wait-list control are unclustered. The past several years have seen rapid expansion and investigation of methods for analyzing partially nested data. Yet partial nesting often remains ignored in psychotherapy trials. This review integrates and disseminates developments in the analysis of partially nested data that are particularly relevant for psychotherapy researchers. First, we differentiate among alternative partially nested designs. Then, we present adaptations of multilevel model specifications that accommodate each design. Next, we address how moderation by treatment as well as mediation of the treatment effect can be investigated in partially nested designs. Model fitting results, annotated software syntax, and illustrative data sets are provided and key methodological issues are discussed. We emphasize that cluster-level variability in the treatment arm need not be considered a nuisance; it can be modeled to yield insights about the treatment process.

  13. The Component Slope Linear Model for Calculating Intensive Partial Molar Properties: Application to Waste Glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, Jacob G.

    2013-01-01

    Partial molar properties are the changes occurring when the fraction of one component is varied while the fractions of all other component mole fractions change proportionally. They have many practical and theoretical applications in chemical thermodynamics. Partial molar properties of chemical mixtures are difficult to measure because the component mole fractions must sum to one, so a change in fraction of one component must be offset with a change in one or more other components. Given that more than one component fraction is changing at a time, it is difficult to assign a change in measured response to a change in a single component. In this study, the Component Slope Linear Model (CSLM), a model previously published in the statistics literature, is shown to have coefficients that correspond to the intensive partial molar properties. If a measured property is plotted against the mole fraction of a component while keeping the proportions of all other components constant, the slope at any given point on a graph of this curve is the partial molar property for that constituent. Actually plotting this graph has been used to determine partial molar properties for many years. The CSLM directly includes this slope in a model that predicts properties as a function of the component mole fractions. This model is demonstrated by applying it to the constant pressure heat capacity data from the NaOH-NaAl(OH 4 H 2 O system, a system that simplifies Hanford nuclear waste. The partial molar properties of H 2 O, NaOH, and NaAl(OH) 4 are determined. The equivalence of the CSLM and the graphical method is verified by comparing results detennined by the two methods. The CSLM model has been previously used to predict the liquidus temperature of spinel crystals precipitated from Hanford waste glass. Those model coefficients are re-interpreted here as the partial molar spinel liquidus temperature of the glass components

  14. A partial test of a hospital behavioral model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornbrook, M C; Goldfarb, M G

    1983-01-01

    The influence of hospital and community characteristics on the behavior of five dimensions of hospital output is examined in this article. These dimensions are the level of emergency stand-by capacity, total admissions, the diagnosis-mix of admissions and the hospital's 'style of practice' with regard to ancillary services and length of stay. A simultaneous equations model is estimated with data from a sample of 63 New England short-term general hospitals for 1970. The findings suggest that various types of short-term general hospitals have distinctive preferences for emergency capacity, volume, case mix and style of practice, and that style of practice may be more appropriately viewed as a rate of resource use per day. Specific findings of interest include the positive interdependence between protection against running out of emergency beds and length of stay, and between length of stay and ancillary service use. Hospitals that admit greater numbers of patients tend to treat more severely ill patients, and sicker patients tend to go to larger hospitals. Hospitals that provide more ancillary services tend to attract the more acutely ill patients. Relationships among other elements of the hospital's utility function represent trade-offs, i.e. substitution, in a constrained world. Among the exogenous factors, patient preferences and ability to pay have strong associations with the types of care provided by hospitals. Highly educated, high income communities, for example, tend to prefer risk averse, service intensive hospital output. Teaching hospitals are shown to prefer higher protection levels, service-intensive patterns of care, and higher admissions levels. Self-paying patients tend to be admitted for more discretionary types of diagnoses and to receive longer diagnosis-specific lengths of stay. A relatively greater supply of physician specialists in the market area is associated with increased use of ancillary services in the hospital. If replicated, these

  15. Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

    2017-01-01

    calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

  16. Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

    to the real economy and not to bond prices can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in credit markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed spreads...

  17. A chiral quark model for meson electroproduction in the S11 partial wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golli, B.; Sirca, S.

    2011-01-01

    We calculate the meson scattering and electroproduction amplitudes in the S11 partial wave in a coupled-channel approach that incorporates quasi-bound quark-model states. Using the quark wave functions and the quark-meson interaction from the Cloudy Bag Model, we obtain a good overall agreement with the available experimental results for the partial widths of the N(1535) and the N(1650) resonances as well as for the pion, eta and kaon electroproduction amplitudes. Our model is consistent with the N(1535) resonance being dominantly a genuine three-quark state rather than a quasi-bound state of mesons and baryons. (orig.)

  18. Credit Management System

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Credit Management System. Outsourced Internet-based application. CMS stores and processes data related to USAID credit programs. The system provides information...

  19. EOQ Model for Delayed Deteriorating Items with Shortages and Trade Credit Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Sundararajan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items under the condition of permissible delay in payments with constant demand rate is a function of time which differs from before and after deterioration for a single item. Shortages are allowed and completely backlogged which is a function of time. Under these assumptions, this paper develops a retailer's model for obtaining an optimal cycle length and ordering quantity in deteriorating items of an inventory model. Thus, our objective is retailer's cost minimization problem to nd an optimal replenishment policy under various parameters. The convexity of the objective function is derived and the numerical examples are provided to support the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters of the model is included and the implications are discussed.

  20. The African Credit Trap

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Andrianova; Badi H. Baltagi; Panicos O. Demetriades; David Fielding

    2010-01-01

    We put forward a plausible explanation of African financial underdevelopment in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Utilising an appropriately modified IO model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse selection (a lack of good projects). We provide empirical evidence from a large panel of African banks which suggests that loan defaults are a major factor inhibiting bank lending when the quality of regulatio...

  1. Logical Specification and Analysis of Fault Tolerant Systems through Partial Model Checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gnesi, S.; Etalle, Sandro; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Lenzini, Gabriele; Lenzini, G.; Martinelli, F.; Roychoudhury, A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for a logical characterisation of fault tolerance and its formal analysis based on partial model checking techniques. The framework requires a fault tolerant system to be modelled using a formal calculus, here the CCS process algebra. To this aim we propose a uniform

  2. Modeling biological gradient formation: combining partial differential equations and Petri nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertens, Laura M F; Kleijn, Jetty; Hille, Sander C; Heiner, Monika; Koutny, Maciej; Verbeek, Fons J

    2016-01-01

    Both Petri nets and differential equations are important modeling tools for biological processes. In this paper we demonstrate how these two modeling techniques can be combined to describe biological gradient formation. Parameters derived from partial differential equation describing the process of gradient formation are incorporated in an abstract Petri net model. The quantitative aspects of the resulting model are validated through a case study of gradient formation in the fruit fly.

  3. Reduced-order modelling of parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear dynamic partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, A A; Xing, W W; Triantafyllidis, V

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach.

  4. Anglo-American Credit Scoring and Consumer Debt in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007 as Models for Other Countries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Fay Ruddy

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The system of credit scoring has been built up in recent times on the basis of a compromise struck between individuality and surveillance in ways that boosted consumption through consumer debt. This paper considers the role of credit scoring in the recent financial crisis, concluding that even if credit scoring had worked as intended under its own terms, the practice would not have been enough to limit the defaulting of mortgage borrowers under conditions of falling house prices. The broader economic problem is the crippling amount of consumer debt involved; hence the paper places credit scoring in the larger explanatory framework of consumer debt and, more generally, consumerism in its more problematic form. The sorting accomplished by credit scoring is open to abuses in the marketplace, unless it is tempered by the application of guardrails by a regulatory authority. As cultures beyond the Anglo-American sphere adopt this practice, guardrails like those applied to credit scoring in America are needed; as even the current U.S. Administration has acknowledged, the existing guardrails will have to be complemented by stricter social standards. The paper provides a derivation of the theoretical background on credit scoring as surveillance, and includes a literature survey.

  5. Factors associated with blood oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure regulation during respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support: data from a swine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Marcelo; Mendes, Pedro Vitale; Costa, Eduardo Leite Vieira; Barbosa, Edzangela Vasconcelos Santos; Hirota, Adriana Sayuri; Azevedo, Luciano Cesar Pontes

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the factors associated with blood oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure. The factors associated with oxygen - and carbon dioxide regulation were investigated in an apneic pig model under veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. A predefined sequence of blood and sweep flows was tested. Oxygenation was mainly associated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation blood flow (beta coefficient = 0.036mmHg/mL/min), cardiac output (beta coefficient = -11.970mmHg/L/min) and pulmonary shunting (beta coefficient = -0.232mmHg/%). Furthermore, the initial oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure measurements were also associated with oxygenation, with beta coefficients of 0.160 and 0.442mmHg/mmHg, respectively. Carbon dioxide partial pressure was associated with cardiac output (beta coefficient = 3.578mmHg/L/min), sweep gas flow (beta coefficient = -2.635mmHg/L/min), temperature (beta coefficient = 4.514mmHg/ºC), initial pH (beta coefficient = -66.065mmHg/0.01 unit) and hemoglobin (beta coefficient = 6.635mmHg/g/dL). In conclusion, elevations in blood and sweep gas flows in an apneic veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation model resulted in an increase in oxygen partial pressure and a reduction in carbon dioxide partial pressure 2, respectively. Furthermore, without the possibility of causal inference, oxygen partial pressure was negatively associated with pulmonary shunting and cardiac output, and carbon dioxide partial pressure was positively associated with cardiac output, core temperature and initial hemoglobin.

  6. Partial widths of boson resonances in the quark-gluon model of strong interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaidalov, A.B.; Volkovitsky, P.E.

    1981-01-01

    The quark-gluon model of strong interactions based on the topological expansion and the string model ib used for the calculation of the partial widths of boson resonances in the channels with two pseudoscalar mesons. The partial widths of mesons with arbitrary spins lying on the vector and tensor Regge trajectories are expressed in terms of the only rho-meson width. The violation of SU(3) symmetry increases with the growth of the spin of the resonance. The theoretical predictions are in a good agreement with experimental data [ru

  7. Adopting Zero Interest Financing Model (ZIFM in Islamic Microfinance Institutions: The Case of Shariah People Credit Bank (BPRS, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Thas Thaker Mohamed Asmy Bin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Microfinance has emerged as an important instrument to alleviate poverty in many countries including in developing countries. Despite being able to demonstrate successes in the activity, conventional microfinance is not without controversy. The findings from the existing studies revealed that conventional microfinance is less effective, fail to reach the poorest people and generally have a limited effect on income. In addition, conventional microfinance also has highly criticized for charging excessive interest rates and fees to the poor entrepreneur. In some Muslim countries, conventional microfinance has always been rejected, due to its non-compliance with the Islamic principles, particularly on the issue related to interest or riba. Islamic microfinance evolved and reckoned as an alternative to its counterpart. However, the outreach of Islamic microfinance is very limited where only there is very few Islamic microfinance institutions and Islamic banks involved in microfinance activity. Also, Islamic microfinance is having an issue of convergence of activity with the conventional practices. Thus, this paper aims to propose to adopt Zero Interest Financing Model (ZIFM for Islamic microfinance institutions. This study focuses on the case of Indonesian Islamic microfinance institution namely Shariah People Credit Bank (BPRS by observing their experience and some emerging issues. The proposed model is expected to address an emerging issue in Islamic microfinance institutions.

  8. A structural model for the housing and credit markets in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Andrea Nobili; Francesco Zollino

    2012-01-01

    We estimate a fully-fledged structural system for the housing market in Italy, taking into account the multi-fold link with bank lending to both households and construction firms. The model allows the house supply to vary in the short run and the banking sector to affect the equilibrium in the housing market, through its effect on housing supply and demand. We show that house prices react mostly to standard drivers such as disposable income, expected inflation and demographic pressures. Lendi...

  9. Credit: A Teaching Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanton, Brandolyn; And Others

    Intended for teachers of secondary school students, five lessons on consumer credit are presented. In the first lesson students identify and evaluate sources of credit, compare some of the costs and benefits of credit, and learn to apply criteria used in evaluating applications for credit. In the second lesson, students learn about two basic types…

  10. Refundable Tax Credits

    OpenAIRE

    Congressional Budget Office

    2013-01-01

    In 1975, the first refundable tax credit—the earned income tax credit (EITC)—took effect. Since then, the number and cost of refundable tax credits—credits that can result in net payments from the government—have grown considerably. Those credits will cost $149 billion in 2013, CBO estimates, mostly for the EITC and the child tax credit.

  11. NCA & Credit Guarantees

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    stooppn

    purposes of the National Credit Act; what the definition of a credit guarantee set out ...... Scholtz et al National Credit Act in para 8.2.4; Scott et al Law of Commerce ..... Eitelberg E "Autonomy of Documentary Credit Undertakings in South African.

  12. Highly accelerated cardiac cine parallel MRI using low-rank matrix completion and partial separability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Jingyuan; Nakarmi, Ukash; Zhang, Chaoyi; Ying, Leslie

    2016-05-01

    This paper presents a new approach to highly accelerated dynamic parallel MRI using low rank matrix completion, partial separability (PS) model. In data acquisition, k-space data is moderately randomly undersampled at the center kspace navigator locations, but highly undersampled at the outer k-space for each temporal frame. In reconstruction, the navigator data is reconstructed from undersampled data using structured low-rank matrix completion. After all the unacquired navigator data is estimated, the partial separable model is used to obtain partial k-t data. Then the parallel imaging method is used to acquire the entire dynamic image series from highly undersampled data. The proposed method has shown to achieve high quality reconstructions with reduction factors up to 31, and temporal resolution of 29ms, when the conventional PS method fails.

  13. Simplified Method for Modeling the Impact of Arbitrary Partial Shading Conditions on PV Array Performance: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacAlpine, Sara; Deline, Chris

    2015-09-15

    It is often difficult to model the effects of partial shading conditions on PV array performance, as shade losses are nonlinear and depend heavily on a system's particular configuration. This work describes and implements a simple method for modeling shade loss: a database of shade impact results (loss percentages), generated using a validated, detailed simulation tool and encompassing a wide variety of shading scenarios. The database is intended to predict shading losses in crystalline silicon PV arrays and is accessed using basic inputs generally available in any PV simulation tool. Performance predictions using the database are within 1-2% of measured data for several partially shaded PV systems, and within 1% of those predicted by the full, detailed simulation tool on an annual basis. The shade loss database shows potential to considerably improve performance prediction for partially shaded PV systems.

  14. Credit card spending limit and personal finance: system dynamics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Pejić Bach

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit cards have become one of the major ways for conducting cashless transactions. However, they have a long term impact on the well being of their owner through the debt generated by credit card usage. Credit card issuers approve high credit limits to credit card owners, thereby influencing their credit burden. A system dynamics model has been used to model behavior of a credit card owner in different scenarios according to the size of a credit limit. Experiments with the model demonstrated that a higher credit limit approved on the credit card decreases the budget available for spending in the long run. This is a contribution toward the evaluation of action for credit limit control based on their consequences.

  15. Effect of nano-silver hydrogel coating film on deep partial thickness scald model of rabbit

    OpenAIRE

    Peng Xi; Yan Li; Xiaojin Ge; Dandan Liu; Mingsan Miao

    2018-01-01

    Objective: Observing the effect of nano-silver hydrogel coating film on deep partial thickness scald model of rabbit. Method: We prepared boiling water scalded rabbits with deep II degree scald models and applied high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film for different time and area. Then we compared the difference of burned paper weight before administration and after administration model burns, burn local skin irritation points infection, skin crusting and scabs from th...

  16. Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds. PMID:29723295

  17. Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yun; Tian, Yixiang; Xiao, Zhuang; Zhou, Xiangyun

    2018-01-01

    The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds.

  18. Capital Requirements and Credit Rationing

    OpenAIRE

    Itai Agur

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the trade-off between financial stability and credit rationing that arises when increasing capital requirements. It extends the Stiglitz-Weiss model of credit rationing to allow for bank default. Bank capital structure then matters for lending incentives. With default and rationing endogenous, optimal capital requirements can be analyzed. Introducing bank financiers, the paper also shows that uninsured funding raises the sensitivity of rationing to capital requirements. In...

  19. Skew-t partially linear mixed-effects models for AIDS clinical studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tao

    2016-01-01

    We propose partially linear mixed-effects models with asymmetry and missingness to investigate the relationship between two biomarkers in clinical studies. The proposed models take into account irregular time effects commonly observed in clinical studies under a semiparametric model framework. In addition, commonly assumed symmetric distributions for model errors are substituted by asymmetric distribution to account for skewness. Further, informative missing data mechanism is accounted for. A Bayesian approach is developed to perform parameter estimation simultaneously. The proposed model and method are applied to an AIDS dataset and comparisons with alternative models are performed.

  20. Implementing The Automated Phases Of The Partially-Automated Digital Triage Process Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary D Cantrell

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Digital triage is a pre-digital-forensic phase that sometimes takes place as a way of gathering quick intelligence. Although effort has been undertaken to model the digital forensics process, little has been done to date to model digital triage. This work discuses the further development of a model that does attempt to address digital triage the Partially-automated Crime Specific Digital Triage Process model. The model itself will be presented along with a description of how its automated functionality was implemented to facilitate model testing.

  1. Inference in partially identified models with many moment inequalities using Lasso

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bugni, Federico A.; Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    This paper considers the problem of inference in a partially identified moment (in)equality model with possibly many moment inequalities. Our contribution is to propose a novel two-step new inference method based on the combination of two ideas. On the one hand, our test statistic and critical...

  2. Application of partial differential equation modeling of the control/structural dynamics of flexible spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.; Rajiyah, H.

    1991-01-01

    Partial differential equations for modeling the structural dynamics and control systems of flexible spacecraft are applied here in order to facilitate systems analysis and optimization of these spacecraft. Example applications are given, including the structural dynamics of SCOLE, the Solar Array Flight Experiment, the Mini-MAST truss, and the LACE satellite. The development of related software is briefly addressed.

  3. New model reduction technique for a class of parabolic partial differential equations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vajta, Miklos

    1991-01-01

    A model reduction (or lumping) technique for a class of parabolic-type partial differential equations is given, and its application is discussed. The frequency response of the temperature distribution in any multilayer solid is developed and given by a matrix expression. The distributed transfer

  4. Sulfur Speciation of Crude Oils by Partial Least Squares Regression Modeling of Their Infrared Spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Peinder, P.; Visser, T.; Wagemans, R.W.P.; Blomberg, J.; Chaabani, H.; Soulimani, F.; Weckhuysen, B.M.

    2013-01-01

    Research has been carried out to determine the feasibility of partial least-squares regression (PLS) modeling of infrared (IR) spectra of crude oils as a tool for fast sulfur speciation. The study is a continuation of a previously developed method to predict long and short residue properties of

  5. Average intensity and spreading of partially coherent model beams propagating in a turbulent biological tissue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yuqian; Zhang, Yixin; Wang, Qiu; Hu, Zhengda

    2016-01-01

    For Gaussian beams with three different partially coherent models, including Gaussian-Schell model (GSM), Laguerre-Gaussian Schell-model (LGSM) and Bessel-Gaussian Schell-model (BGSM) beams propagating through a biological turbulent tissue, the expression of the spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue, and the average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams are derived based on the fractal model of power spectrum of refractive-index variations in biological tissue. Effects of partially coherent model and parameters of biological turbulence on such beams are studied in numerical simulations. Our results reveal that the spreading of GSM beams is smaller than LGSM and BGSM beams on the same conditions, and the beam with larger source coherence width has smaller beam spreading than that with smaller coherence width. The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues, especially the cases where the average intensity and spreading properties of the light should be taken into account to evaluate the system performance and investigations in the structures of biological tissue. - Highlights: • Spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue is developed. • Expressions of average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams in a turbulent biological tissue are derived. • The contrast for the three partially coherent model beams is shown in numerical simulations. • The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues.

  6. Constraints on the rheology of the partially molten mantle from numerical models of laboratory experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudge, J. F.; Alisic Jewell, L.; Rhebergen, S.; Katz, R. F.; Wells, G. N.

    2015-12-01

    One of the fundamental components in any dynamical model of melt transport is the rheology of partially molten rock. This rheology is poorly understood, and one way in which a better understanding can be obtained is by comparing the results of laboratory deformation experiments to numerical models. Here we present a comparison between numerical models and the laboratory setup of Qi et al. 2013 (EPSL), where a cylinder of partially molten rock containing rigid spherical inclusions was placed under torsion. We have replicated this setup in a finite element model which solves the partial differential equations describing the mechanical process of compaction. These computationally-demanding 3D simulations are only possible due to the recent development of a new preconditioning method for the equations of magma dynamics. The experiments show a distinct pattern of melt-rich and melt-depleted regions around the inclusions. In our numerical models, the pattern of melt varies with key rheological parameters, such as the ratio of bulk to shear viscosity, and the porosity- and strain-rate-dependence of the shear viscosity. These observed melt patterns therefore have the potential to constrain rheological properties. While there are many similarities between the experiments and the numerical models, there are also important differences, which highlight the need for better models of the physics of two-phase mantle/magma dynamics. In particular, the laboratory experiments display more pervasive melt-rich bands than is seen in our numerics.

  7. Doubly robust estimation of generalized partial linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Huiming; Fu, Bo; Qin, Guoyou; Zhu, Zhongyi

    2017-12-01

    We develop a doubly robust estimation of generalized partial linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts. Our method extends the highly efficient aggregate unbiased estimating function approach proposed in Qu et al. (2010) to a doubly robust one in the sense that under missing at random (MAR), our estimator is consistent when either the linear conditional mean condition is satisfied or a model for the dropout process is correctly specified. We begin with a generalized linear model for the marginal mean, and then move forward to a generalized partial linear model, allowing for nonparametric covariate effect by using the regression spline smoothing approximation. We establish the asymptotic theory for the proposed method and use simulation studies to compare its finite sample performance with that of Qu's method, the complete-case generalized estimating equation (GEE) and the inverse-probability weighted GEE. The proposed method is finally illustrated using data from a longitudinal cohort study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  8. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  9. Partial splenectomy and autotransplantation of splenic fragments in pigs: a model for prevention of septicemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pabst, R.; Binns, R.M.

    1986-01-01

    Normal young piglets and miniature piglets of the Gottingen breed were used as animal models for autotransplantation of splenic fragments. In pigs, regeneration kinetics seem to be comparable to man. Even after six mo, only small splenic nodules with a reduced blood flow were found. No effective stimulator of splenic regeneration has been found for pigs. Pig spleen size and blood supply enable partial splenectomies and ligation of the splenic artery which are models for spleen surgery in man

  10. A partially ionized plasma modeling; Un modele de plasma partiellement ionise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Thanh, K.C.; Raviart, P.A

    2003-07-01

    We propose a model for the partially ionized plasma sheaths near the anode of an anodic spot electric arc where the cathode is considered as an electron emitter. A fluid description takes into account the heating and the ionization of the plasma induced by the electron beam. As physical hypothesis we assume that the condition of charge neutrality is valid. According that the electron mass can be neglected compared to the ion mass, we can assume that ions and atoms have the same velocity and the same temperature. Electrons and heavy particles are then regarded as two separate fluids coexisting in the plasma. Governing equations are then multi-fluid equations with relaxation correction to the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) and heating by Joule effect. Equations are solved by an operator splitting procedure. That is we first discretize the homogeneous conservation laws (i.e. without source terms) by a finite volume method. The second step is to solve the ordinary differential system (i.e, governing equation without transport terms) with an implicit scheme. (authors)

  11. Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

    2017-10-01

    Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the

  12. Rural Credit in Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barslund, Mikkel Christoffer; Tarp, Finn

    This paper uses a survey of 932 rural households to uncover how the rural credit market operates in four provinces of Vietnam. Households obtain credit through formal and informal lenders, but formal loans are almost entirely for production and asset accumulation. Interest rates fell from 1997...... to 2002, reflecting increased market integration; but the determinants of formal and informal credit demand are distinct. Credit rationing depends on education and credit history, but we find no evidence of a bias against women. Regional differences are striking, and a ‘one size fits all’ approach...... to credit policy is clearly inappropriate....

  13. Lattice Boltzmann model for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Zhenhua; He, Nanzhong; Guo, Zhaoli; Shi, Baochang

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a general lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation with the form ∂tϕ +∑k=1mαk∂xkΠk(ϕ ) =0 (1 ≤k ≤m ≤6 ), αk are constant coefficients, Πk(ϕ ) are some known differential functions of ϕ . As some special cases of the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation, the classical (m)KdV equation, KdV-Burgers equation, K (n ,n ) -Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and Kawahara equation can be solved by the present LB model. Compared to the available LB models, the most distinct characteristic of the present model is to introduce some suitable auxiliary moments such that the correct moments of equilibrium distribution function can be achieved. In addition, we also conducted a detailed Chapman-Enskog analysis, and found that the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation can be correctly recovered from the proposed LB model. Finally, a large number of simulations are performed, and it is found that the numerical results agree with the analytical solutions, and usually the present model is also more accurate than the existing LB models [H. Lai and C. Ma, Sci. China Ser. G 52, 1053 (2009), 10.1007/s11433-009-0149-3; H. Lai and C. Ma, Phys. A (Amsterdam) 388, 1405 (2009), 10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.005] for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

  14. Lattice Boltzmann model for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Zhenhua; He, Nanzhong; Guo, Zhaoli; Shi, Baochang

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a general lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation with the form ∂_{t}ϕ+∑_{k=1}^{m}α_{k}∂_{x}^{k}Π_{k}(ϕ)=0 (1≤k≤m≤6), α_{k} are constant coefficients, Π_{k}(ϕ) are some known differential functions of ϕ. As some special cases of the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation, the classical (m)KdV equation, KdV-Burgers equation, K(n,n)-Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and Kawahara equation can be solved by the present LB model. Compared to the available LB models, the most distinct characteristic of the present model is to introduce some suitable auxiliary moments such that the correct moments of equilibrium distribution function can be achieved. In addition, we also conducted a detailed Chapman-Enskog analysis, and found that the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation can be correctly recovered from the proposed LB model. Finally, a large number of simulations are performed, and it is found that the numerical results agree with the analytical solutions, and usually the present model is also more accurate than the existing LB models [H. Lai and C. Ma, Sci. China Ser. G 52, 1053 (2009)1672-179910.1007/s11433-009-0149-3; H. Lai and C. Ma, Phys. A (Amsterdam) 388, 1405 (2009)PHYADX0378-437110.1016/j.physa.2009.01.005] for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

  15. COMPENSATORY INTEREST SETTLEMENT AND CREDIT BANKING MORATORIUM

    OpenAIRE

    Avelino Sánchez, Esteban Marino

    2014-01-01

    First is explained the reasons for this article, it mentions the specific legal rules that support the settlement of interest on the credit operations of companies in the financial system with end users, and then presents the average interest rates of some operations credit. Then we present the formula for calculating interest, and illustrates its application with examples 1 and 2 (the simplest). The following is, in examples 3 and 4, the calculation of interest with imputation of partial pay...

  16. A genetic model of progressively partial melting for uranium-bearing granites in south China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai Jianping.

    1989-01-01

    A genetic model of progressively partial and enrichment mechanism of uranium during partial melting of the sources of material studied and the significance of the genetic model in search of uranium deposits is elaborated. This model accounts better for some geological and geochemical features of uranium-bearing granties and suspects the traditional idea that igneous uranium-bearing granites were formed by fusion of U-rich strata surrounding these granites. Finally this paper points out that the infuence of U-rich strata of wall rocks of granites over uranium-bearing granites depends on variation of water solubility in the magma and assimilation of magma to wall rocks during its ascending and crystallization

  17. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Peter F.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two different models for analyzing extreme hydrologic events, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value......). In the case of ML estimation, the PDS model provides the most efficient T-year event estimator. In the cases of MOM and PWM estimation, the PDS model is generally preferable for negative shape parameters, whereas the AMS model yields the most efficient estimator for positive shape parameters. A comparison...... of the considered methods reveals that in general, one should use the PDS model with MOM estimation for negative shape parameters, the PDS model with exponentially distributed exceedances if the shape parameter is close to zero, the AMS model with MOM estimation for moderately positive shape parameters, and the PDS...

  18. Benefits and limitations of animal models in partial bladder outlet obstruction for translational research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitta, Takeya; Kanno, Yukiko; Chiba, Hiroki; Higuchi, Madoka; Ouchi, Mifuka; Togo, Mio; Moriya, Kimihiko; Shinohara, Nobuo

    2018-01-01

    The functions of the lower urinary tract have been investigated for more than a century. Lower urinary tract symptoms, such as incomplete bladder emptying, weak urine stream, daytime urinary frequency, urgency, urge incontinence and nocturia after partial bladder outlet obstruction, is a frequent cause of benign prostatic hyperplasia in aging men. However, the pathophysiological mechanisms have not been fully elucidated. The use of animal models is absolutely imperative for understanding the pathophysiological processes involved in bladder dysfunction. Surgical induction has been used to study lower urinary tract functions of numerous animal species, such as pig, dog, rabbit, guinea pig, rat and mouse, of both sexes. Several morphological and functional modifications under partial bladder outlet obstruction have not only been observed in the bladder, but also in the central nervous system. Understanding the changes of the lower urinary tract functions induced by partial bladder outlet obstruction would also contribute to appropriate drug development for treating these pathophysiological conditions. In the present review, we discuss techniques for creating partial bladder outlet obstruction, the characteristics of several species, as well as issues of each model, and their translational value. © 2017 The Japanese Urological Association.

  19. Inventory Model with Partial Backordering When Backordered Customers Delay Purchase after Stockout-Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Qian Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many inventory models with partial backordering assume that the backordered demand must be filled instantly after stockout restoration. In practice, however, the backordered customers may successively revisit the store because of the purchase delay behavior, producing a limited backorder demand rate and resulting in an extra inventory holding cost. Hence, in this paper we formulate the inventory model with partial backordering considering the purchase delay of the backordered customers and assuming that the backorder demand rate is proportional to the remaining backordered demand. Particularly, we model the problem by introducing a new inventory cost component of holding the backordered items, which has not been considered in the existing models. We propose an algorithm with a two-layer structure based on Lipschitz Optimization (LO to minimize the total inventory cost. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm outperforms two benchmarks in both optimality and efficiency. We also observe that the earlier the backordered customer revisits the store, the smaller the inventory cost and the fill rate are, but the longer the order cycle is. In addition, if the backordered customers revisit the store without too much delay, the basic EOQ with partial backordering approximates our model very well.

  20. Credit Rating and Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Nelson Camanho; Pragyan Deb; Zijun Liu

    2010-01-01

    In principle, credit rating agencies are supposed to be impartial observers that bridge the gap between private information of issuers and the information available to the wider pool of investors. However, since the 1970s, rating agencies have relied on an issuer-pay model, creating a conflict of interest the largest source of income for the rating agencies are the fees paid by the issuers the rating agencies are supposed to impartially rate. In this paper, we explore the trade-off between re...

  1. Monetary policy and credit conditions: new evidence.

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Ongena

    1995-01-01

    A number of recent papers seek to distinguish between "money" and "credit" theories of the transmission of monetary disturbances using asymmetric information arguments. In credit models money causes output not only through the real interest rate but also through the availability of bank credit. The research described in this paper extends the work of Kashyap, Stein and Wilcox (1993) who construct a model that incorporates a relationship benefit to bank borrowing and then test the implications...

  2. 18 CFR 367.2550 - Account 255, Accumulated deferred investment tax credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., Accumulated deferred investment tax credits. 367.2550 Section 367.2550 Conservation of Power and Water... 255, Accumulated deferred investment tax credits. This account must be credited with all investment tax credits deferred by companies that have elected to follow deferral accounting, partial or full...

  3. Credit Card Quiz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Jeff

    2000-01-01

    Describes an activity in which students design credit cards and discover for themselves the mathematical realities of buying on credit. Employs multiple-intelligence theory to increase the chance that all students will be reached. (YDS)

  4. Credit Union Headquarters

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) is the independent federal agency that charters and supervises federal credit unions. NCUA, backed of the full faith...

  5. Optimal transfer, ordering and payment policies for joint supplier-buyer inventory model with price-sensitive trapezoidal demand and net credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nita H.; Shah, Digeshkumar B.; Patel, Dushyantkumar G.

    2015-07-01

    This study aims at formulating an integrated supplier-buyer inventory model when market demand is variable price-sensitive trapezoidal and the supplier offers a choice between discount in unit price and permissible delay period for settling the accounts due against the purchases made. This type of trade credit is termed as 'net credit'. In this policy, if the buyer pays within offered time M1, then the buyer is entitled for a cash discount; otherwise the full account must be settled by the time M2; where M2 > M1 ⩾ 0. The goal is to determine the optimal selling price, procurement quantity, number of transfers from the supplier to the buyer and payment time to maximise the joint profit per unit time. An algorithm is worked out to obtain the optimal solution. A numerical example is given to validate the proposed model. The managerial insights based on sensitivity analysis are deduced.

  6. Partially linear mixed-effects joint models for skewed and missing longitudinal competing risks outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tao; Lu, Minggen; Wang, Min; Zhang, Jun; Dong, Guang-Hui; Xu, Yong

    2017-12-18

    Longitudinal competing risks data frequently arise in clinical studies. Skewness and missingness are commonly observed for these data in practice. However, most joint models do not account for these data features. In this article, we propose partially linear mixed-effects joint models to analyze skew longitudinal competing risks data with missingness. In particular, to account for skewness, we replace the commonly assumed symmetric distributions by asymmetric distribution for model errors. To deal with missingness, we employ an informative missing data model. The joint models that couple the partially linear mixed-effects model for the longitudinal process, the cause-specific proportional hazard model for competing risks process and missing data process are developed. To estimate the parameters in the joint models, we propose a fully Bayesian approach based on the joint likelihood. To illustrate the proposed model and method, we implement them to an AIDS clinical study. Some interesting findings are reported. We also conduct simulation studies to validate the proposed method.

  7. Chick embryo partial ischemia model: a new approach to study ischemia ex vivo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syamantak Majumder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Ischemia is a pathophysiological condition due to blockade in blood supply to a specific tissue thus damaging the physiological activity of the tissue. Different in vivo models are presently available to study ischemia in heart and other tissues. However, no ex vivo ischemia model has been available to date for routine ischemia research and for faster screening of anti-ischemia drugs. In the present study, we took the opportunity to develop an ex vivo model of partial ischemia using the vascular bed of 4(th day incubated chick embryo. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ischemia was created in chick embryo by ligating the right vitelline artery using sterile surgical suture. Hypoxia inducible factor- 1 alpha (HIF-1alpha, creatine phospho kinase-MB and reactive oxygen species in animal tissues and cells were measured to confirm ischemia in chick embryo. Additionally, ranolazine, N-acetyl cysteine and trimetazidine were administered as an anti-ischemic drug to validate the present model. Results from the present study depicted that blocking blood flow elevates HIF-1alpha, lipid peroxidation, peroxynitrite level in ischemic vessels while ranolazine administration partially attenuates ischemia driven HIF-1alpha expression. Endothelial cell incubated on ischemic blood vessels elucidated a higher level of HIF-1alpha expression with time while ranolazine treatment reduced HIF-1alpha in ischemic cells. Incubation of caprine heart strip on chick embryo ischemia model depicted an elevated creatine phospho kinase-MB activity under ischemic condition while histology of the treated heart sections evoked edema and disruption of myofibril structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study concluded that chick embryo partial ischemia model can be used as a novel ex vivo model of ischemia. Therefore, the present model can be used parallel with the known in vivo ischemia models in understanding the mechanistic insight of ischemia development and in

  8. Credit Card Security

    OpenAIRE

    G.C., Anup

    2013-01-01

    Author: Anup G.C. Year: 2013 Subject of thesis: Credit Card Security Number of pages: 36+2 Credit Card is a widely used electronic chip for easy transactions. The main purpose of the report was to show the security measures of transaction by credit cards. The purpose was to give information about credit cards and how they were introduced. The thesis reportcontained the types of card theft with examples and sited the various protocols used for online ...

  9. A lattice Boltzmann model with an amending function for simulating nonlinear partial differential equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin-Jie, Chen; Chang-Feng, Ma

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a lattice Boltzmann model with an amending function for one-dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations (NPDEs) in the form u t + αuu x + βu n u x + γu xx + δu xxx + ζu xxxx = 0. This model is different from existing models because it lets the time step be equivalent to the square of the space step and derives higher accuracy and nonlinear terms in NPDEs. With the Chapman–Enskog expansion, the governing evolution equation is recovered correctly from the continuous Boltzmann equation. The numerical results agree well with the analytical solutions. (general)

  10. Unidimensional factor models imply weaker partial correlations than zero-order correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bork, Riet; Grasman, Raoul P P P; Waldorp, Lourens J

    2018-06-01

    In this paper we present a new implication of the unidimensional factor model. We prove that the partial correlation between two observed variables that load on one factor given any subset of other observed variables that load on this factor lies between zero and the zero-order correlation between these two observed variables. We implement this result in an empirical bootstrap test that rejects the unidimensional factor model when partial correlations are identified that are either stronger than the zero-order correlation or have a different sign than the zero-order correlation. We demonstrate the use of the test in an empirical data example with data consisting of fourteen items that measure extraversion.

  11. Modeling of a partially debonded piezoelectric actuator in smart composite laminates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bin; Soo Kim, Heung; Ho Yoon, Gil

    2015-01-01

    A partially debonded piezoelectric actuator in smart composite laminates was modeled using an improved layerwise displacement field and Heaviside unit step functions. The finite element method with four node plate element and the extended Hamilton principle were used to derive the governing equation. The effects of actuator debonding on the smart composite laminate were investigated in both the frequency and time domains. The frequency and transient responses were obtained using the mode superposition method and the Newmark time integration algorithm, respectively. Two partial actuator debonding cases were studied to investigate the debonding effects on the actuation capability of the piezoelectric actuator. The effect of actuator debonding on the natural frequencies was subtler, but severe reductions of the actuation ability were observed in both the frequency and time responses, especially in the edge debonded actuator case. The results provided confirmation that the proposed modeling could be used in virtual experiments of actuator failure in smart composite laminates. (paper)

  12. Credit Market Information Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi; Craig, Ben R.; Thomson, James B.; Zaman, Saeed

    2015-01-01

    We examine how a combination of credit market and asset quality information can jointly be used in assessing bank franchise value. We find that expectations of future credit demand and future asset quality explain contemporaneous bank franchise value, indicative of the feedback in credit market information and its consequent impact on bank franchise value.

  13. The Function of Credit Scheme to Improve Family Income among Beef Cattle Farmers in Central Java Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, E.; Ekowati, T.; Roessali, W.; Gayatri, S.

    2018-02-01

    The aims of study were: (i) identify of beef cattle fattening credit scheme, (ii) calculating and analyze of beef cattle farmers’ income, (iii) analyze of factors influencing beef cattle credit scheme towards farmer’s income. The research was held in five regencies in Central Java Province. Beef cattle fattening farm was standardized as an elementary unit. Survey method was used, while Two Stage Cluster Purposive Sampling was used for determining of sample. Data were analyzed using statistical method of quantitative descriptive and inferential statistics in term of income analysis and multiple linear regression models. The result showed that farmers used their own capital to run the farm. The average amount was IDR 10,769,871. Kredit Ketahanan Pangan dan Energi was credit scheme which was dominantly access by farmers. The average credit was IDR 23,312,200/farmer with rate of credit equal to 6.46%, the time of credit returning equal to 24.60 monthand the prediction of average collateral equal to IDR 35,800,00. The average of farmers’ income was IDR 4,361,611.60/2.96 head of beef cattle/fattening period. If the labour cost did not calculate as a cost production, hence the farmer’ income was IDR 7,608,630.41 or in other word the farmer’ income increase 74.44%. Factors of credit scheme which partially significant influence to the farmers’ income were number of own capital usage and value of credit collateral. Meanwhile, name of credit scheme, financing institution as a creditor, amount of credit, rate of credit scheme and time of returning credit were not significantly influence towards farmers’ income.

  14. Mathematical Modeling of Partial-Porous Circular Cylinders with Water Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Su Park

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of water waves with partially porous-surfaced circular cylinders was investigated. A three-dimensional numerical modeling was developed based on the complete mathematical formulation of the eigenfunction expansion method in the potential flow. Darcy’s law was applied to describe the porous boundary. The partial-porous cylinder is composed of a porous-surfaced body near the free surface, and an impermeable-surfaced body with an end-capped rigid bottom below the porous region. The optimal ratio of the porous portion to the impermeable portion can be adopted to design an effective ocean structure with minimal hydrodynamic impact. To scrutinize the hydrodynamic interactions in N partial-porous circular cylinders, the computational fluid domain is divided into three regions: an exterior region, N inner porous body regions, and N regions beneath the body. Wave excitation forces and wave run-up on multibodied partial-porous cylinders are calculated and compared for various porous-portion ratios and wave conditions, all of which significantly influence the hydrodynamic property.

  15. Comparison of partial and complete arterial occlusion models for studying intestinal ischemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parks, D.A.; Grogaard, B.; Granger, D.N.

    1982-01-01

    Mucosal albumin clearance was measured in jejunal segments of dogs under control conditions and following complete or partial arterial occlusion of varying durations (1, 2, 3, or 4 hours). The rate of albumin clearance was estimated from the luminal perfusion rate and the activity of protein bound 125 I in the perfusate and plasma. Partial and total arterial occlusions of 60 minutes to 4 hours' duration produced significant increases in mucosal albumin clearance. The magnitude of the rise in albumin clearance was directly related to the duration of ischemia in both total and partial arterial occlusion models. However, the magnitude of the increase in albumin clearance was significantly greater with total arterial occlusion for any given duration of ischemia. The albumin clearance results obtained in the present study compare favorably with previously reported morphologic changes in the intestinal mucosa produced by both total and partial occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery. The agreement between morphologic and physiologic measurements indicates that mucosal albumin clearance may be a useful tool for studying the pathophysiology of intestinal ischemia

  16. Modelling and investigation of partial wetting surfaces for drop dynamics using lattice Boltzmann method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pravinraj, T., E-mail: pravinraj1711@gmail.com; Patrikar, Rajendra

    2017-07-01

    Highlights: • A LBM model on partial wetting surface for droplet dynamics is presented by introducing a simple initial partial wetting boundary condition in SC model. • With our approach one can tune the splitting volume and time by carefully choosing strip width and position. • It is shown that the droplet spreading on chemically heterogeneous surfaces can be controlled not only by Weber number but also by tuning strip width ratio. • The directional transportation of a droplet due to chemical wetting gradient is simulated and analyzed using hybrid thermodynamic-image processing technique. • Microstructure surface and its influence on the directional wetting based transportation of droplet are demonstrated. - Abstract: Partial wetting surfaces and its influence on the droplet movement of micro and nano scale being contemplated for many useful applications. The dynamics of the droplet usually analyzed with a multiphase lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). In this paper, the influence of partial wetting surface on the dynamics of droplet is systematically analyzed for various cases. Splitting of droplets due to chemical gradient of the surface is studied and analyses of splitting time for various widths of the strips for different Weber numbers are computed. With the proposed model one can tune the splitting volume and time by carefully choosing a strip width and droplet position. The droplet spreading on chemically heterogeneous surfaces shows that the spreading can be controlled not only by parameters of Weber number but also by tuning strip width ratio. The transportation of the droplet from hydrophobic surface to hydrophilic surface due to chemical gradient is simulated and analyzed using our hybrid thermodynamic-image processing technique. The results prove that with the progress of time the surface free energy decreases with increase in spreading area. Finally, the transportation of a droplet on microstructure gradient is demonstrated. The model explains

  17. A partial hearing animal model for chronic electro-acoustic stimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irving, S.; Wise, A. K.; Millard, R. E.; Shepherd, R. K.; Fallon, J. B.

    2014-08-01

    Objective. Cochlear implants (CIs) have provided some auditory function to hundreds of thousands of people around the world. Although traditionally carried out only in profoundly deaf patients, the eligibility criteria for implantation have recently been relaxed to include many partially-deaf patients with useful levels of hearing. These patients receive both electrical stimulation from their implant and acoustic stimulation via their residual hearing (electro-acoustic stimulation; EAS) and perform very well. It is unclear how EAS improves speech perception over electrical stimulation alone, and little evidence exists about the nature of the interactions between electric and acoustic stimuli. Furthermore, clinical results suggest that some patients that undergo cochlear implantation lose some, if not all, of their residual hearing, reducing the advantages of EAS over electrical stimulation alone. A reliable animal model with clinically-relevant partial deafness combined with clinical CIs is important to enable these issues to be studied. This paper outlines such a model that has been successfully used in our laboratory. Approach. This paper outlines a battery of techniques used in our laboratory to generate, validate and examine an animal model of partial deafness and chronic CI use. Main results. Ototoxic deafening produced bilaterally symmetrical hearing thresholds in neonatal and adult animals. Electrical activation of the auditory system was confirmed, and all animals were chronically stimulated via adapted clinical CIs. Acoustic compound action potentials (CAPs) were obtained from partially-hearing cochleae, using the CI amplifier. Immunohistochemical analysis allows the effects of deafness and electrical stimulation on cell survival to be studied. Significance. This animal model has applications in EAS research, including investigating the functional interactions between electric and acoustic stimulation, and the development of techniques to maintain residual

  18. Implicit particle filtering for models with partial noise, and an application to geomagnetic data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Morzfeld

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Implicit particle filtering is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation, designed to keep the number of particles manageable by focussing attention on regions of large probability. These regions are found by minimizing, for each particle, a scalar function F of the state variables. Some previous implementations of the implicit filter rely on finding the Hessians of these functions. The calculation of the Hessians can be cumbersome if the state dimension is large or if the underlying physics are such that derivatives of F are difficult to calculate, as happens in many geophysical applications, in particular in models with partial noise, i.e. with a singular state covariance matrix. Examples of models with partial noise include models where uncertain dynamic equations are supplemented by conservation laws with zero uncertainty, or with higher order (in time stochastic partial differential equations (PDE or with PDEs driven by spatially smooth noise processes. We make the implicit particle filter applicable to such situations by combining gradient descent minimization with random maps and show that the filter is efficient, accurate and reliable because it operates in a subspace of the state space. As an example, we consider a system of nonlinear stochastic PDEs that is of importance in geomagnetic data assimilation.

  19. Credit scoring for individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria DIMITRIU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Lending money to different borrowers is profitable, but risky. The profits come from the interest rate and the fees earned on the loans. Banks do not want to make loans to borrowers who cannot repay them. Even if the banks do not intend to make bad loans, over time, some of them can become bad. For instance, as a result of the recent financial crisis, the capability of many borrowers to repay their loans were affected, many of them being on default. That’s why is important for the bank to monitor the loans. The purpose of this paper is to focus on credit scoring main issues. As a consequence of this, we presented in this paper the scoring model of an important Romanian Bank. Based on this credit scoring model and taking into account the last lending requirements of the National Bank of Romania, we developed an assessment tool, in Excel, for retail loans which is presented in the case study.

  20. Filtering a statistically exactly solvable test model for turbulent tracers from partial observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Majda, A.J.

    2011-01-01

    A statistically exactly solvable model for passive tracers is introduced as a test model for the authors' Nonlinear Extended Kalman Filter (NEKF) as well as other filtering algorithms. The model involves a Gaussian velocity field and a passive tracer governed by the advection-diffusion equation with an imposed mean gradient. The model has direct relevance to engineering problems such as the spread of pollutants in the air or contaminants in the water as well as climate change problems concerning the transport of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide with strongly intermittent probability distributions consistent with the actual observations of the atmosphere. One of the attractive properties of the model is the existence of the exact statistical solution. In particular, this unique feature of the model provides an opportunity to design and test fast and efficient algorithms for real-time data assimilation based on rigorous mathematical theory for a turbulence model problem with many active spatiotemporal scales. Here, we extensively study the performance of the NEKF which uses the exact first and second order nonlinear statistics without any approximations due to linearization. The role of partial and sparse observations, the frequency of observations and the observation noise strength in recovering the true signal, its spectrum, and fat tail probability distribution are the central issues discussed here. The results of our study provide useful guidelines for filtering realistic turbulent systems with passive tracers through partial observations.

  1. Model test on partial expansion in stratified subsidence during foundation pit dewatering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianxiu; Deng, Yansheng; Ma, Ruiqiang; Liu, Xiaotian; Guo, Qingfeng; Liu, Shaoli; Shao, Yule; Wu, Linbo; Zhou, Jie; Yang, Tianliang; Wang, Hanmei; Huang, Xinlei

    2018-02-01

    Partial expansion was observed in stratified subsidence during foundation pit dewatering. However, the phenomenon was suspected to be an error because the compression of layers is known to occur when subsidence occurs. A slice of the subsidence cone induced by drawdown was selected as the prototype. Model tests were performed to investigate the phenomenon. The underlying confined aquifer was generated as a movable rigid plate with a hinge at one end. The overlying layers were simulated with remolded materials collected from a construction site. Model tests performed under the conceptual model indicated that partial expansion occurred in stratified settlements under coordination deformation and consolidation conditions. During foundation pit dewatering, rapid drawdown resulted in rapid subsidence in the dewatered confined aquifer. The rapidly subsiding confined aquifer top was the bottom deformation boundary of the overlying layers. Non-coordination deformation was observed at the top and bottom of the subsiding overlying layers. The subsidence of overlying layers was larger at the bottom than at the top. The layers expanded and became thicker. The phenomenon was verified using numerical simulation method based on finite difference method. Compared with numerical simulation results, the boundary effect of the physical tests was obvious in the observation point close to the movable endpoint. The tensile stress of the overlying soil layers induced by the underlying settlement of dewatered confined aquifer contributed to the expansion phenomenon. The partial expansion of overlying soil layers was defined as inversed rebound. The inversed rebound was induced by inversed coordination deformation. Compression was induced by the consolidation in the overlying soil layers because of drainage. Partial expansion occurred when the expansion exceeded the compression. Considering the inversed rebound, traditional layer-wise summation method for calculating subsidence should be

  2. An odor interaction model of binary odorant mixtures by a partial differential equation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Luchun; Liu, Jiemin; Wang, Guihua; Wu, Chuandong

    2014-07-09

    A novel odor interaction model was proposed for binary mixtures of benzene and substituted benzenes by a partial differential equation (PDE) method. Based on the measurement method (tangent-intercept method) of partial molar volume, original parameters of corresponding formulas were reasonably displaced by perceptual measures. By these substitutions, it was possible to relate a mixture's odor intensity to the individual odorant's relative odor activity value (OAV). Several binary mixtures of benzene and substituted benzenes were respectively tested to establish the PDE models. The obtained results showed that the PDE model provided an easily interpretable method relating individual components to their joint odor intensity. Besides, both predictive performance and feasibility of the PDE model were proved well through a series of odor intensity matching tests. If combining the PDE model with portable gas detectors or on-line monitoring systems, olfactory evaluation of odor intensity will be achieved by instruments instead of odor assessors. Many disadvantages (e.g., expense on a fixed number of odor assessors) also will be successfully avoided. Thus, the PDE model is predicted to be helpful to the monitoring and management of odor pollutions.

  3. An Odor Interaction Model of Binary Odorant Mixtures by a Partial Differential Equation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luchun Yan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A novel odor interaction model was proposed for binary mixtures of benzene and substituted benzenes by a partial differential equation (PDE method. Based on the measurement method (tangent-intercept method of partial molar volume, original parameters of corresponding formulas were reasonably displaced by perceptual measures. By these substitutions, it was possible to relate a mixture’s odor intensity to the individual odorant’s relative odor activity value (OAV. Several binary mixtures of benzene and substituted benzenes were respectively tested to establish the PDE models. The obtained results showed that the PDE model provided an easily interpretable method relating individual components to their joint odor intensity. Besides, both predictive performance and feasibility of the PDE model were proved well through a series of odor intensity matching tests. If combining the PDE model with portable gas detectors or on-line monitoring systems, olfactory evaluation of odor intensity will be achieved by instruments instead of odor assessors. Many disadvantages (e.g., expense on a fixed number of odor assessors also will be successfully avoided. Thus, the PDE model is predicted to be helpful to the monitoring and management of odor pollutions.

  4. Robust-BD Estimation and Inference for General Partially Linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunming Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The classical quadratic loss for the partially linear model (PLM and the likelihood function for the generalized PLM are not resistant to outliers. This inspires us to propose a class of “robust-Bregman divergence (BD” estimators of both the parametric and nonparametric components in the general partially linear model (GPLM, which allows the distribution of the response variable to be partially specified, without being fully known. Using the local-polynomial function estimation method, we propose a computationally-efficient procedure for obtaining “robust-BD” estimators and establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the “robust-BD” estimator of the parametric component β o . For inference procedures of β o in the GPLM, we show that the Wald-type test statistic W n constructed from the “robust-BD” estimators is asymptotically distribution free under the null, whereas the likelihood ratio-type test statistic Λ n is not. This provides an insight into the distinction from the asymptotic equivalence (Fan and Huang 2005 between W n and Λ n in the PLM constructed from profile least-squares estimators using the non-robust quadratic loss. Numerical examples illustrate the computational effectiveness of the proposed “robust-BD” estimators and robust Wald-type test in the appearance of outlying observations.

  5. Consequences of the partial restoration of chiral symmetry in an AdS/QCD model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngman; Lee, Hyun Kyu

    2008-01-01

    Chiral symmetry is an essential concept in understanding QCD at low energy. We treat the chiral condensate, which measures the spontaneous breaking of chiral symmetry, as a free parameter to investigate the effect of partially restored chiral symmetry on the physical quantities in the framework of an AdS/QCD model. We observe an interesting scaling behavior among the nucleon mass, pion decay constant, and chiral condensate. We propose a phenomenological way to introduce the temperature dependence of a physical quantity in the AdS/QCD model with the thermal AdS metric.

  6. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...... estimator is superior to the at-site estimator even in extremely heterogenous regions, the performance of the regional estimator being relatively better in regions with a negative shape parameter. When the record length increases, the relative performance of the regional estimator decreases, but it is still...

  7. Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified......A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...

  8. Exotic muon-to-positron conversion in nuclei: partial transition sum evaluation by using shell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Divari, P.C.; Vergados, J.D.; Kosmas, T.S.; Skouras, L.D.

    2001-01-01

    A comprehensive study of the exotic (μ - ,e + ) conversion in 27 Al, 27 Al(μ - ,e + ) 27 Na is presented. The relevant operators are deduced assuming one-pion and two-pion modes in the framework of intermediate neutrino mixing models, paying special attention to the light neutrino case. The total rate is calculated by summing over partial transition strengths for all kinematically accessible final states derived with s-d shell model calculations employing the well-known Wildenthal realistic interaction

  9. Partial molar volume of proteins studied by the three-dimensional reference interaction site model theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Takashi; Kovalenko, Andriy; Hirata, Fumio

    2005-04-14

    The three-dimensional reference interaction site model (3D-RISM) theory is applied to the analysis of hydration effects on the partial molar volume of proteins. For the native structure of some proteins, the partial molar volume is decomposed into geometric and hydration contributions using the 3D-RISM theory combined with the geometric volume calculation. The hydration contributions are correlated with the surface properties of the protein. The thermal volume, which is the volume of voids around the protein induced by the thermal fluctuation of water molecules, is directly proportional to the accessible surface area of the protein. The interaction volume, which is the contribution of electrostatic interactions between the protein and water molecules, is apparently governed by the charged atomic groups on the protein surface. The polar atomic groups do not make any contribution to the interaction volume. The volume differences between low- and high-pressure structures of lysozyme are also analyzed by the present method.

  10. Partial Overhaul and Initial Parallel Optimization of KINETICS, a Coupled Dynamics and Chemistry Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Howard; Willacy, Karen; Allen, Mark

    2012-01-01

    KINETICS is a coupled dynamics and chemistry atmosphere model that is data intensive and computationally demanding. The potential performance gain from using a supercomputer motivates the adaptation from a serial version to a parallelized one. Although the initial parallelization had been done, bottlenecks caused by an abundance of communication calls between processors led to an unfavorable drop in performance. Before starting on the parallel optimization process, a partial overhaul was required because a large emphasis was placed on streamlining the code for user convenience and revising the program to accommodate the new supercomputers at Caltech and JPL. After the first round of optimizations, the partial runtime was reduced by a factor of 23; however, performance gains are dependent on the size of the data, the number of processors requested, and the computer used.

  11. Determinants of SME credit worthiness under Basel rules: the value of credit history information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Dainelli

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Basel III Accord has reportedly had an impact on SME financing. In this paper, we aim to highlight the determinants of SME credit worthiness. We use credit history in addition to financial ratios and “hybrid” indicators that have been built by mixing credit history with financial statement data. We develop a failure prediction logit model on 187 Italian SMEs. The use of short-term credit lines is the most important variable. Contrary to common understanding, capitalization levels do not affect ratings. Lastly, credit worthiness is sensitive to sale profitability.

  12. Modified multiblock partial least squares path modeling algorithm with backpropagation neural networks approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuniarto, Budi; Kurniawan, Robert

    2017-03-01

    PLS Path Modeling (PLS-PM) is different from covariance based SEM, where PLS-PM use an approach based on variance or component, therefore, PLS-PM is also known as a component based SEM. Multiblock Partial Least Squares (MBPLS) is a method in PLS regression which can be used in PLS Path Modeling which known as Multiblock PLS Path Modeling (MBPLS-PM). This method uses an iterative procedure in its algorithm. This research aims to modify MBPLS-PM with Back Propagation Neural Network approach. The result is MBPLS-PM algorithm can be modified using the Back Propagation Neural Network approach to replace the iterative process in backward and forward step to get the matrix t and the matrix u in the algorithm. By modifying the MBPLS-PM algorithm using Back Propagation Neural Network approach, the model parameters obtained are relatively not significantly different compared to model parameters obtained by original MBPLS-PM algorithm.

  13. A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig

    2013-11-01

    A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.

  14. Effect of nano-silver hydrogel coating film on deep partial thickness scald model of rabbit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Peng; Li, Yan; Ge, Xiaojin; Liu, Dandan; Miao, Mingsan

    2018-05-01

    Observing the effect of nano-silver hydrogel coating film on deep partial thickness scald model of rabbit. We prepared boiling water scalded rabbits with deep II degree scald models and applied high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film for different time and area. Then we compared the difference of burned paper weight before administration and after administration model burns, burn local skin irritation points infection, skin crusting and scabs from the time, and the impact of local skin tissue morphology. Rabbits deep II degree burn model successful modeling; on day 12, 18, high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film significantly reduced skin irritation of rabbits infected with the integral value ( P  film group significantly decreased skin irritation, infection integral value ( P  film significantly reduced film rabbits' scalded skin crusting time ( P  film on the deep partial thickness burns has a significant therapeutic effect; external use has a significant role in wound healing.

  15. Whole object surface area and volume of partial-view 3D models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulukutla, Gopal K; Proussevitch, Alexander A; Genareau, Kimberly D; Durant, Adam J

    2017-01-01

    Micro-scale 3D models, important components of many studies in science and engineering, are often used to determine morphological characteristics such as shape, surface area and volume. The application of techniques such as stereoscopic scanning electron microscopy on whole objects often results in ‘partial-view’ models with a portion of object not within the field of view thus not captured in the 3D model. The nature and extent of the surface not captured is dependent on the complex interaction of imaging system attributes (e.g. working distance, viewing angle) with object size, shape and morphology. As a result, any simplistic assumptions in estimating whole object surface area or volume can lead to significant errors. In this study, we report on a novel technique to estimate the physical fraction of an object captured in a partial-view 3D model of an otherwise whole object. This allows a more accurate estimate of surface area and volume. Using 3D models, we demonstrate the robustness of this method and the accuracy of surface area and volume estimates relative to true values. (paper)

  16. Life time test of a partial model of HTGR helium-helium heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitagawa, Masaki; Hattori, Hiroshi; Ohtomo, Akira; Teramae, Tetsuo; Hamanaka, Junichi; Itoh, Mitsuyoshi; Urabe, Shigemi

    1984-01-01

    Authors had proposed a design guide for the HTGR components and applied it to the design and construction of the 1.5 Mwt helium heat exchanger test loop for the nuclear steel making under the financial support of the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry. In order to assure that the design method covers all the conceivable failure mode and has enough safety margin, a series of life time tests of partial model may be needed. For this project, three types of model tests were performed. A life time test of a partial model of the center manifold pipe and eight heat exchanger tubes were described in this report. A damage criterion with a set of material constants and a simplified method for stress-strain analysis for stub tube under three dimensional load were newly developed and used to predict the lives of each tube. The predicted lives were compared with the experimental lives and good agreement was found between the two. The life time test model was evaluated according to the proposed design guide and it was found that the guide has a safety factor of approximately 200 in life for this particular model. (author)

  17. A new nonlinear turbulence model based on Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J T; Wu, Y L; Cai, C; Liu, S H; Wang, L Q

    2013-01-01

    Partially-averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) Model was recognized as a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) to direct numerical simulation (DNS) bridging method. PANS model was purported for any filter width-from RANS to DNS. PANS method also shared some similarities with the currently popular URANS (unsteady RANS) method. In this paper, a new PANS model was proposed, which was based on RNG k-ε turbulence model. The Standard and RNG k-ε turbulence model were both isotropic models, as well as PANS models. The sheer stress in those PANS models was solved by linear equation. The linear hypothesis was not accurate in the simulation of complex flow, such as stall phenomenon. The sheer stress here was solved by nonlinear method proposed by Ehrhard. Then, the nonlinear PANS model was set up. The pressure coefficient of the suction side of the NACA0015 hydrofoil was predicted. The result of pressure coefficient agrees well with experimental result, which proves that the nonlinear PANS model can capture the high pressure gradient flow. A low specific centrifugal pump was used to verify the capacity of the nonlinear PANS model. The comparison between the simulation results of the centrifugal pump and Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) results proves that the nonlinear PANS model can be used in the prediction of complex flow field

  18. Numerical modeling of spray combustion in DI diesel engine using partially stirred reactor (PaSR) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaleghi, H.; Hosseini, S.M.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years special attention has been paid to the topic of diesel engine combustion. Various combustion models are used in CFD codes. In this paper Partially Stirred Reactor (PaSR) model, one of the newest turbulent combustion models, is introduced. This model has been employed in conjunction with the non-iterative PISO algorithm to calculate spray combustion in an axi-symmetric, direct injection diesel engine. Qualitative consideration of the results shows very good agreement with physical expectations and other numerical and experimental results. (author)

  19. CFD modeling of combustion processes using KIVA3V Code with partially stirred reactor model for turbulence-combustion interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jarnicki, R.; Sobiesiak, A.

    2002-01-01

    In order to solve the averaged conservation equations for turbulent reacting flow one is faced with a task of specifying the averaged chemical reaction rate. This is due to turbulence influence on the mean reaction rates that appear in the species concentration Reynolds-averaged equation. In order to investigate the Partially Stirred Reactor (PaSR) combustion model capabilities, a CFD modeling using KIVA3V Code with the PaSR model of two very different combustion processes, was performed. Experimental results were compared with modeling

  20. Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

    2018-05-01

    Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

  1. The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Landschoot, A.

    2003-01-01

    Although there is a broad literature on structural credit risk models, there has been little empirical testing of these models.In this paper we examine the term structure of credit spreads on euro corporate bonds and the empirical validation of structural credit risk models.The latter provide a

  2. Comparison of using different bridge prosthetic designs for partial defect restoration through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styranivska, Oksana; Kliuchkovska, Nataliia; Mykyyevych, Nataliya

    2017-01-01

    To analyze the stress-strain states of bone and abutment teeth during the use of different prosthetic designs of fixed partial dentures with the use of relevant mathematical modeling principles. The use of Comsol Multiphysics 3.5 (Comsol AB, Sweden) software during the mathematical modeling of stress-strain states provided numerical data for analytical interpretation in three different clinical scenarios with fixed dentures and different abutment teeth and demountable prosthetic denture with the saddle-shaped intermediate part. Microsoft Excel Software (Microsoft Office 2017) helped to evaluate absolute mistakes of stress and strain parameters of each abutment tooth during three modeled scenarios and normal condition and to summarize data into the forms of tables. In comparison with the fixed prosthetic denture supported by the canine, first premolar, and third molar, stresses at the same abutment teeth with the use of demountable denture with the saddle-shaped intermediate part decreased: at the mesial abutment tooth by 2.8 times, at distal crown by 6.1 times, and at the intermediate part by 11.1 times, respectively, the deformation level decreased by 3.1, 1.9, and 1.4 times at each area. The methods of mathematical modeling proved that complications during the use of fixed partial dentures based on the overload effect of the abutment teeth and caused by the deformation process inside the intermediate section of prosthetic construction.

  3. Partial least squares path modeling basic concepts, methodological issues and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Noonan, Richard

    2017-01-01

    This edited book presents the recent developments in partial least squares-path modeling (PLS-PM) and provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the most advanced research related to PLS-PM. The first section of this book emphasizes the basic concepts and extensions of the PLS-PM method. The second section discusses the methodological issues that are the focus of the recent development of the PLS-PM method. The third part discusses the real world application of the PLS-PM method in various disciplines. The contributions from expert authors in the field of PLS focus on topics such as the factor-based PLS-PM, the perfect match between a model and a mode, quantile composite-based path modeling (QC-PM), ordinal consistent partial least squares (OrdPLSc), non-symmetrical composite-based path modeling (NSCPM), modern view for mediation analysis in PLS-PM, a multi-method approach for identifying and treating unobserved heterogeneity, multigroup analysis (PLS-MGA), the assessment of the common method b...

  4. Customer classification in banking system of Iran based on the credit risk model using multi-criteria decision-making models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil Khalili

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important factors of survival of financial institutes and banks in the current competitive markets is to create balance and equality among resources and consumptions as well as to keep the health of money circulation in these institutes. According to the experiences obtained from recent financial crises in the world. The lack of appropriate management of the demands of banks and financial institutions can be considered as one of the main factors of occurrence of this crisis. The objective of the present study is to identify and classify customers according to credit risk and decisions of predictive models. The present research is a survey research employing field study in terms of the data collection method. The method of collecting theoretical framework was library research and the data were collected by two ways of data of a questionnaire and real customers’ financial data. To analyze the data of the questionnaire, analytical hierarchy process and to analyze real customers’ financial data, the TOPSIS method were employed. The population of the study included files of real customers in one of the branches of RefahKargaran Bank in city of Tabriz, Iran. From among 800 files, 140 files were completed and using Morgan’s table, 103 files were investigated. The final model was presented and with 95% of probability, if the next customer’s data is entered the model, it will capable of identifying accurately the degree of customer risk.

  5. A simple method for identifying parameter correlations in partially observed linear dynamic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pu; Vu, Quoc Dong

    2015-12-14

    Parameter estimation represents one of the most significant challenges in systems biology. This is because biological models commonly contain a large number of parameters among which there may be functional interrelationships, thus leading to the problem of non-identifiability. Although identifiability analysis has been extensively studied by analytical as well as numerical approaches, systematic methods for remedying practically non-identifiable models have rarely been investigated. We propose a simple method for identifying pairwise correlations and higher order interrelationships of parameters in partially observed linear dynamic models. This is made by derivation of the output sensitivity matrix and analysis of the linear dependencies of its columns. Consequently, analytical relations between the identifiability of the model parameters and the initial conditions as well as the input functions can be achieved. In the case of structural non-identifiability, identifiable combinations can be obtained by solving the resulting homogenous linear equations. In the case of practical non-identifiability, experiment conditions (i.e. initial condition and constant control signals) can be provided which are necessary for remedying the non-identifiability and unique parameter estimation. It is noted that the approach does not consider noisy data. In this way, the practical non-identifiability issue, which is popular for linear biological models, can be remedied. Several linear compartment models including an insulin receptor dynamics model are taken to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. Both structural and practical identifiability of partially observed linear dynamic models can be clarified by the proposed method. The result of this method provides important information for experimental design to remedy the practical non-identifiability if applicable. The derivation of the method is straightforward and thus the algorithm can be easily implemented into a

  6. Multi-scale diffuse interface modeling of multi-component two-phase flow with partial miscibility

    KAUST Repository

    Kou, Jisheng; Sun, Shuyu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a diffuse interface model to simulate multi-component two-phase flow with partial miscibility based on a realistic equation of state (e.g. Peng-Robinson equation of state). Because of partial miscibility, thermodynamic

  7. Credit rating dynamics and competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirth, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    I analyze the market for credit ratings with competition between more than two rating agencies. How can honest rating behavior be achieved, and under which conditions can a new honest rating agency successfully invade a market with inflating incumbents? My model predicts cyclic dynamics...

  8. Fixed point and anomaly mediation in partial {\\boldsymbol{N}}=2 supersymmetric standard models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Wen

    2018-01-01

    Motivated by the simple toroidal compactification of extra-dimensional SUSY theories, we investigate a partial N = 2 supersymmetric (SUSY) extension of the standard model which has an N = 2 SUSY sector and an N = 1 SUSY sector. We point out that below the scale of the partial breaking of N = 2 to N = 1, the ratio of Yukawa to gauge couplings embedded in the original N = 2 gauge interaction in the N = 2 sector becomes greater due to a fixed point. Since at the partial breaking scale the sfermion masses in the N = 2 sector are suppressed due to the N = 2 non-renormalization theorem, the anomaly mediation effect becomes important. If dominant, the anomaly-induced masses for the sfermions in the N = 2 sector are almost UV-insensitive due to the fixed point. Interestingly, these masses are always positive, i.e. there is no tachyonic slepton problem. From an example model, we show interesting phenomena differing from ordinary MSSM. In particular, the dark matter particle can be a sbino, i.e. the scalar component of the N = 2 vector multiplet of {{U}}{(1)}Y. To obtain the correct dark matter abundance, the mass of the sbino, as well as the MSSM sparticles in the N = 2 sector which have a typical mass pattern of anomaly mediation, is required to be small. Therefore, this scenario can be tested and confirmed in the LHC and may be further confirmed by the measurement of the N = 2 Yukawa couplings in future colliders. This model can explain dark matter, the muon g-2 anomaly, and gauge coupling unification, and relaxes some ordinary problems within the MSSM. It is also compatible with thermal leptogenesis.

  9. Credit risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Bank for International Settlements

    2003-01-01

    Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

  10. Modern bank's credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

  11. Autoregressive Model with Partial Forgetting within Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Hofman, Radek

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 41, č. 5 (2012), s. 582-589 ISSN 0361-0918 R&D Projects: GA MV VG20102013018; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Grant - others:ČVUT(CZ) SGS 10/099/OHK3/1T/16 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian methods * Particle filters * Recursive estimation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.295, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/dedecius-autoregressive model with partial forgetting within rao-blackwellized particle filter.pdf

  12. Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Thomas A; Picone, Gabriel; Sloan, Frank; Yashkin, Arseniy P

    2016-08-01

    We estimate a dynamic multi-stage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, while the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.

  13. A queueing model for error control of partial buffer sharing in ATM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahn Boo Yong

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available We model the error control of the partial buffer sharing of ATM by a queueing system M 1 , M 2 / G / 1 / K + 1 with threshold and instantaneous Bernoulli feedback. We first derive the system equations and develop a recursive method to compute the loss probabilities at an arbitrary time epoch. We then build an approximation scheme to compute the mean waiting time of each class of cells. An algorithm is developed for finding the optimal threshold and queue capacity for a given quality of service.

  14. Coenzyme Q10 partially restores pathological alterations in a macrophage model of Gaucher disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Mata, Mario; Cotán, David; Oropesa-Ávila, Manuel; Villanueva-Paz, Marina; de Lavera, Isabel; Álvarez-Córdoba, Mónica; Luzón-Hidalgo, Raquel; Suárez-Rivero, Juan M; Tiscornia, Gustavo; Sánchez-Alcázar, José A

    2017-02-06

    Gaucher disease (GD) is caused by mutations in the GBA1 gene which encodes lysosomal β-glucocerebrosidase (GCase). In GD, partial or complete loss of GCase activity causes the accumulation of the glycolipids glucosylceramide (GlcCer) and glucosylsphingosine in the lysosomes of macrophages. In this manuscript, we investigated the effects of glycolipids accumulation on lysosomal and mitochondrial function, inflammasome activation and efferocytosis capacity in a THP-1 macrophage model of Gaucher disease. In addition, the beneficial effects of coenzyme Q 10 (CoQ) supplementation on cellular alterations were evaluated. Chemically-induced Gaucher macrophages were developed by differentiateing THP-1 monocytes to macrophages by treatment with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and then inhibiting intracellular GCase with conduritol B-epoxide (CBE), a specific irreversible inhibitor of GCase activity, and supplementing the medium with exogenous GlcCer. This cell model accumulated up to 16-fold more GlcCer compared with control THP-1 cells. Chemically-induced Gaucher macrophages showed impaired autophagy flux associated with mitochondrial dysfunction and increased oxidative stress, inflammasome activation and impaired efferocytosis. All abnormalities were partially restored by supplementation with CoQ. These data suggest that targeting mitochondria function and oxidative stress by CoQ can ameliorate the pathological phenotype of Gaucher cells. Chemically-induced Gaucher macrophages provide cellular models that can be used to investigate disease pathogenesis and explore new therapeutics for GD.

  15. Analysis and Modeling of Parallel Photovoltaic Systems under Partial Shading Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddala, Santhoshi Snigdha

    Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuels like petroleum, coal, oil, natural gas and other non-renewable energy sources have been used as the primary energy source. The consumption of fossil fuels releases various harmful gases into the atmosphere as byproducts which are hazardous in nature and they tend to deplete the protective layers and affect the overall environmental balance. Also the fossil fuels are bounded resources of energy and rapid depletion of these sources of energy, have prompted the need to investigate alternate sources of energy called renewable energy. One such promising source of renewable energy is the solar/photovoltaic energy. This work focuses on investigating a new solar array architecture with solar cells connected in parallel configuration. By retaining the structural simplicity of the parallel architecture, a theoretical small signal model of the solar cell is proposed and modeled to analyze the variations in the module parameters when subjected to partial shading conditions. Simulations were run in SPICE to validate the model implemented in Matlab. The voltage limitations of the proposed architecture are addressed by adopting a simple dc-dc boost converter and evaluating the performance of the architecture in terms of efficiencies by comparing it with the traditional architectures. SPICE simulations are used to compare the architectures and identify the best one in terms of power conversion efficiency under partial shading conditions.

  16. Partial synchronization in networks of non-linearly coupled oscillators: The Deserter Hubs Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freitas, Celso, E-mail: cbnfreitas@gmail.com; Macau, Elbert, E-mail: elbert.macau@inpe.br [Associate Laboratory for Computing and Applied Mathematics - LAC, Brazilian National Institute for Space Research - INPE (Brazil); Pikovsky, Arkady, E-mail: pikovsky@uni-potsdam.de [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Germany and Department of Control Theory, Nizhni Novgorod State University, Gagarin Av. 23, 606950, Nizhni Novgorod (Russian Federation)

    2015-04-15

    We study the Deserter Hubs Model: a Kuramoto-like model of coupled identical phase oscillators on a network, where attractive and repulsive couplings are balanced dynamically due to nonlinearity of interactions. Under weak force, an oscillator tends to follow the phase of its neighbors, but if an oscillator is compelled to follow its peers by a sufficient large number of cohesive neighbors, then it actually starts to act in the opposite manner, i.e., in anti-phase with the majority. Analytic results yield that if the repulsion parameter is small enough in comparison with the degree of the maximum hub, then the full synchronization state is locally stable. Numerical experiments are performed to explore the model beyond this threshold, where the overall cohesion is lost. We report in detail partially synchronous dynamical regimes, like stationary phase-locking, multistability, periodic and chaotic states. Via statistical analysis of different network organizations like tree, scale-free, and random ones, we found a measure allowing one to predict relative abundance of partially synchronous stationary states in comparison to time-dependent ones.

  17. A simple one-step chemistry model for partially premixed hydrocarbon combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez-Tarrazo, Eduardo [Instituto Nacional de Tecnica Aeroespacial, Madrid (Spain); Sanchez, Antonio L. [Area de Mecanica de Fluidos, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganes 28911 (Spain); Linan, Amable [ETSI Aeronauticos, Pl. Cardenal Cisneros 3, Madrid 28040 (Spain); Williams, Forman A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411 (United States)

    2006-10-15

    This work explores the applicability of one-step irreversible Arrhenius kinetics with unity reaction order to the numerical description of partially premixed hydrocarbon combustion. Computations of planar premixed flames are used in the selection of the three model parameters: the heat of reaction q, the activation temperature T{sub a}, and the preexponential factor B. It is seen that changes in q with equivalence ratio f need to be introduced in fuel-rich combustion to describe the effect of partial fuel oxidation on the amount of heat released, leading to a universal linear variation q(f) for f>1 for all hydrocarbons. The model also employs a variable activation temperature T{sub a}(f) to mimic changes in the underlying chemistry in rich and very lean flames. The resulting chemistry description is able to reproduce propagation velocities of diluted and undiluted flames accurately over the whole flammability limit. Furthermore, computations of methane-air counterflow diffusion flames are used to test the proposed chemistry under nonpremixed conditions. The model not only predicts the critical strain rate at extinction accurately but also gives near-extinction flames with oxygen leakage, thereby overcoming known predictive limitations of one-step Arrhenius kinetics. (author)

  18. Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Jin, Xisong

    We characterize dependence and tail dependence in corporate credit using a new class of dynamic copula models which can capture dynamic dependence and asymmetry in large samples of firms. We also document important differences between the dependence dynamics for credit spreads and equity returns...

  19. Partial corrosion casting to assess cochlear vasculature in mouse models of presbycusis and CMV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carraro, Mattia; Park, Albert H; Harrison, Robert V

    2016-02-01

    Some forms of sensorineural hearing loss involve damage or degenerative changes to the stria vascularis and/or other vascular structures in the cochlea. In animal models, many methods for anatomical assessment of cochlear vasculature exist, each with advantages and limitations. One methodology, corrosion casting, has proved useful in some species, however in the mouse model this technique is difficult to achieve because digestion of non vascular tissue results in collapse of the delicate cast specimen. We have developed a partial corrosion cast method that allows visualization of vasculature along much of the cochlear length but maintains some structural integrity of the specimen. We provide a detailed step-by-step description of this novel technique. We give some illustrative examples of the use of the method in mouse models of presbycusis and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A comparison of partially specular radiosity and ray tracing for room acoustics modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer, C. Walter; Muehleisen, Ralph T.

    2005-04-01

    Partially specular (PS) radiosity is an extended form of the general radiosity method. Acoustic radiosity is a form of bulk transfer of radiant acoustic energy. This bulk transfer is accomplished through a system of energy balance equations that relate the bulk energy transfer of each surface in the system to all other surfaces in the system. Until now acoustic radiosity has been limited to modeling only diffuse surface reflection. The new PS acoustic radiosity method can model all real surface types, diffuse, specular and everything in between. PS acoustic radiosity also models all real source types and distributions, not just point sources. The results of the PS acoustic radiosity method are compared to those of well known ray tracing programs. [Work supported by NSF.

  1. Modeling treatment of ischemic heart disease with partially observable Markov decision processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauskrecht, M; Fraser, H

    1998-01-01

    Diagnosis of a disease and its treatment are not separate, one-shot activities. Instead they are very often dependent and interleaved over time, mostly due to uncertainty about the underlying disease, uncertainty associated with the response of a patient to the treatment and varying cost of different diagnostic (investigative) and treatment procedures. The framework of Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) developed and used in operations research, control theory and artificial intelligence communities is particularly suitable for modeling such a complex decision process. In the paper, we show how the POMDP framework could be used to model and solve the problem of the management of patients with ischemic heart disease, and point out modeling advantages of the framework over standard decision formalisms.

  2. Effect of nano-silver hydrogel coating film on deep partial thickness scald model of rabbit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Xi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Observing the effect of nano-silver hydrogel coating film on deep partial thickness scald model of rabbit. Method: We prepared boiling water scalded rabbits with deep II degree scald models and applied high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film for different time and area. Then we compared the difference of burned paper weight before administration and after administration model burns, burn local skin irritation points infection, skin crusting and scabs from the time, and the impact of local skin tissue morphology. Result: Rabbits deep II degree burn model successful modeling; on day 12, 18, high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film significantly reduced skin irritation of rabbits infected with the integral value (P < 0.01, P < 0.05; high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film group significantly decreased skin irritation, infection integral value (P < 0.01, P < 0.05; high, medium and low doses of nano-silver hydrogel coating film significantly reduced film rabbits’ scalded skin crusting time (P < 0.01, significantly shortened the rabbit skin burns from the scab time (P < 0.01, and significantly improved the treatment of skin diseases in rabbits scald model change (P < 0.01, P < 0.05. Conclusion: The nano-silver hydrogel coating film on the deep partial thickness burns has a significant therapeutic effect; external use has a significant role in wound healing. Keywords: Nano-silver hydrogel coating film, Deep degree burns, Topical, Rabbits

  3. Evaluation of regeneration of liver function in pig model of auxiliary partial liver transplantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaxin; Chen Xiaopeng; Rui Ging; Shong Qun; Chen Fangman; Lu Meijing; Chen Yongquan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To establish a pig model of auxiliary partial liver transplantation and observe the liver function regeneration of host liver and graft. Methods: The portal vein providing for the host liver were gradually contracted; the donor hepatic veins were eng-to-side anastomosed to inferior vena cava in host caudal; graft was transplanted into the space under the host liver, part of receivers relieved portal vein angiography and color Doppler flow imaging was performed 3 days after surgery. Liver function of double livers in relievers was checked up, 3 days and 1 week after surgery respectively. Results: After surgery 10 relievers survived over 1 week, blood enzymology from hepatic vein of grafts 1 week after surgery were not ameliorative significantly compared with those 3 days after surgery (P > 0.05). Blood enzymology indexes from hepatic veins of grafts 1 week after surgery were were improved significantly compared with 3 days after surgery (P < 0.05). The graft did not reveal atrophic and gained favorable function. Conclusion: Favorable regeneration in the auxiliary partial liver transplantation model has achieved. Ideal foundation has been established for simulating and investigating human auxiliary liver transplantation. (authors)

  4. Modelling and investigation of partial wetting surfaces for drop dynamics using lattice Boltzmann method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pravinraj, T.; Patrikar, Rajendra

    2017-07-01

    Partial wetting surfaces and its influence on the droplet movement of micro and nano scale being contemplated for many useful applications. The dynamics of the droplet usually analyzed with a multiphase lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). In this paper, the influence of partial wetting surface on the dynamics of droplet is systematically analyzed for various cases. Splitting of droplets due to chemical gradient of the surface is studied and analyses of splitting time for various widths of the strips for different Weber numbers are computed. With the proposed model one can tune the splitting volume and time by carefully choosing a strip width and droplet position. The droplet spreading on chemically heterogeneous surfaces shows that the spreading can be controlled not only by parameters of Weber number but also by tuning strip width ratio. The transportation of the droplet from hydrophobic surface to hydrophilic surface due to chemical gradient is simulated and analyzed using our hybrid thermodynamic-image processing technique. The results prove that with the progress of time the surface free energy decreases with increase in spreading area. Finally, the transportation of a droplet on microstructure gradient is demonstrated. The model explains the temporal behaviour of droplet during the spreading, recoiling and translation along with tracking of contact angle hysteresis phenomenon.

  5. An analytic, approximate method for modeling steady, three-dimensional flow to partially penetrating wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Mark

    2001-05-01

    An analytic, approximate solution is derived for the modeling of three-dimensional flow to partially penetrating wells. The solution is written in terms of a correction on the solution for a fully penetrating well and is obtained by dividing the aquifer up, locally, in a number of aquifer layers. The resulting system of differential equations is solved by application of the theory for multiaquifer flow. The presented approach has three major benefits. First, the solution may be applied to any groundwater model that can simulate flow to a fully penetrating well; the solution may be superimposed onto the solution for the fully penetrating well to simulate the local three-dimensional drawdown and flow field. Second, the approach is applicable to isotropic, anisotropic, and stratified aquifers and to both confined and unconfined flow. Third, the solution extends over a small area around the well only; outside this area the three-dimensional effect of the partially penetrating well is negligible, and no correction to the fully penetrating well is needed. A number of comparisons are made to existing three-dimensional, analytic solutions, including radial confined and unconfined flow and a well in a uniform flow field. It is shown that a subdivision in three layers is accurate for many practical cases; very accurate solutions are obtained with more layers.

  6. [Partial nucleotomy of the ovine disc as an in vivo model for disc degeneration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guder, E; Hill, S; Kandziora, F; Schnake, K J

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a suitable animal model for the clinical situation of progressive disc degeneration after microsurgical nucleotomy. Twenty sheep underwent standardised partial anterolateral nucleotomy at lumbar segment 3/4. After randomisation, 10 animals were sacrificed after 12 weeks (group 1). The remainder was sacrificed after 48 weeks (group 2). For radiological examination X-rays, MRI and post-mortem CT scans were performed. Lumbar discs L 3/4 with adjacent subchondral trabecular bone were harvested and analysed macroscopically and histologically. An image-analysing computer program was used to measure histomorphometric indices of bone structure. 17 segments could be evaluated. After 12 weeks (group 1) histological and radiological degenerative disc changes were noted. After 48 weeks (group 2), radiological signs in MRI reached statistical significance. Furthermore, group 2 showed significantly more osteophyte formations in CT scans. Histomorphometric changes of the disc and the adjacent vertebral bone structure suggest a significant progressive degenerative remodelling. The facet joints did not show any osteoarthrosis after 48 weeks. Partial nucleotomy of the ovine lumbar disc leads to radiological and histological signs of disc degeneration similar to those seen in humans after microsurgical nucleotomy. The presented in vivo model may be useful to evaluate new orthopaedic treatment strategies.

  7. Tricriticality in the q-neighbor Ising model on a partially duplex clique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmiel, Anna; Sienkiewicz, Julian; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2017-12-01

    We analyze a modified kinetic Ising model, a so-called q-neighbor Ising model, with Metropolis dynamics [Phys. Rev. E 92, 052105 (2015)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.92.052105] on a duplex clique and a partially duplex clique. In the q-neighbor Ising model each spin interacts only with q spins randomly chosen from its whole neighborhood. In the case of a duplex clique the change of a spin is allowed only if both levels simultaneously induce this change. Due to the mean-field-like nature of the model we are able to derive the analytic form of transition probabilities and solve the corresponding master equation. The existence of the second level changes dramatically the character of the phase transition. In the case of the monoplex clique, the q-neighbor Ising model exhibits a continuous phase transition for q=3, discontinuous phase transition for q≥4, and for q=1 and q=2 the phase transition is not observed. On the other hand, in the case of the duplex clique continuous phase transitions are observed for all values of q, even for q=1 and q=2. Subsequently we introduce a partially duplex clique, parametrized by r∈[0,1], which allows us to tune the network from monoplex (r=0) to duplex (r=1). Such a generalized topology, in which a fraction r of all nodes appear on both levels, allows us to obtain the critical value of r=r^{*}(q) at which a tricriticality (switch from continuous to discontinuous phase transition) appears.

  8. Phase behavior and reactive transport of partial melt in heterogeneous mantle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, J.; Hesse, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    The reactive transport of partial melt is the key process that leads to the chemical and physical differentiation of terrestrial planets and smaller celestial bodies. The essential role of the lithological heterogeneities during partial melting of the mantle is increasingly recognized. How far can enriched melts propagate while interacting with the ambient mantle? Can the melt flow emanating from a fertile heterogeneity be localized through a reactive infiltration feedback in a model without exogenous factors or contrived initial conditions? A full understanding of the role of heterogeneities requires reactive melt transport models that account for the phase behavior of major elements. Previous work on reactive transport in the mantle focuses on trace element partitioning; we present the first nonlinear chromatographic analysis of reactive melt transport in systems with binary solid solution. Our analysis shows that reactive melt transport in systems with binary solid solution leads to the formation of two separate reaction fronts: a slow melting/freezing front along which enthalpy change is dominant and a fast dissolution/precipitation front along which compositional changes are dominated by an ion-exchange process over enthalpy change. An intermediate state forms between these two fronts with a bulk-rock composition and enthalpy that are not necessarily bounded by the bulk-rock composition and enthalpy of either the enriched heterogeneity or the depleted ambient mantle. The formation of this intermediate state makes it difficult to anticipate the porosity changes and hence the stability of reaction fronts. Therefore, we develop a graphical representation for the solution that allows identification of the intermediate state by inspection, for all possible bulk-rock compositions and enthalpies of the heterogeneity and the ambient mantle. We apply the analysis to the partial melting of an enriched heterogeneity. This leads to the formation of moving precipitation

  9. Dual Credit Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Light, Noreen

    2016-01-01

    In 2015, legislation to improve access to dual-credit programs and to reduce disparities in access and completion--particularly for low income and underrepresented students--was enacted. The new law focused on expanding access to College in the High School but acknowledged issues in other dual-credit programs and reinforced the notion that cost…

  10. Critical exponents of the transition from incoherence to partial oscillation death in the Winfree model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basnarkov, Lasko; Urumov, Viktor

    2009-01-01

    We consider an analytically solvable version of the Winfree model of synchronization of phase oscillators (proposed by Ariaratnam and Strogatz 2001 Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 4278). It is obtained that the transition from incoherence to a partial death state is characterized by third-order or higher phase transitions according to the Ehrenfest classification. The order of the transition depends on the shape of the distribution function for natural frequencies of oscillators in the vicinity of their lowest frequency. The corresponding critical exponents are found analytically and verified with numerical simulations of equations of motion. We also consider the generalized Winfree model with the interaction strength proportional to a power of the Kuramoto order parameter and find the domain where the critical exponent remains unchanged by this modification

  11. An economic order quantity model with nonlinear holding cost, partial backlogging and ramp-type demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    San-José, Luis A.; Sicilia, Joaquín; González-de-la-Rosa, Manuel; Febles-Acosta, Jaime

    2018-07-01

    In this article, a deterministic inventory model with a ramp-type demand depending on price and time is developed. The cumulative holding cost is assumed to be a nonlinear function of time. Shortages are allowed and are partially backlogged. Thus, the fraction of backlogged demand depends on the waiting time and on the stock-out period. The aim is to maximize the total profit per unit time. To do this, a procedure that determines the economic lot size, the optimal inventory cycle and the maximum profit is presented. The inventory system studied here extends diverse inventory models proposed in the literature. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results previously propounded.

  12. Oscillator strength of partially ionized high-Z atom on Hartree-Fock Slater model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, S.; Nishikawa, T.; Takabe, H.; Mima, K.

    1991-01-01

    The Hartree-Fock Slater (HFS) model has been solved for the partially ionized gold ions generated when an intense laser light is irradiated on a gold foil target. The resultant energy levels are compared with those obtained by a simple screened hydrogenic model with l-splitting effect (SHML). It is shown that the energy levels are poorly model by SHML as the ionization level becomes higher. The resultant wave functions are used to evaluate oscillator strength of important line radiations and compared with those obtained by a simple model using hydrogenic wave functions. Its demonstrated that oscillator strength of the 4p-4d and 4d-4f lines are well modeled by the simple method, while the 4-5 transitions such as 4f-5g, 4d-5f, 4p-5d, and 4f-5p forming the so-called N-band emission are poorly modeled and HFS results less strong line emissions. (author)

  13. Prediction of Placental Barrier Permeability: A Model Based on Partial Least Squares Variable Selection Procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Hong Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the human placental barrier permeability of drugs is very important to guarantee drug safety during pregnancy. Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR method was used as an effective assessing tool for the placental transfer study of drugs, while in vitro human placental perfusion is the most widely used method. In this study, the partial least squares (PLS variable selection and modeling procedure was used to pick out optimal descriptors from a pool of 620 descriptors of 65 compounds and to simultaneously develop a QSAR model between the descriptors and the placental barrier permeability expressed by the clearance indices (CI. The model was subjected to internal validation by cross-validation and y-randomization and to external validation by predicting CI values of 19 compounds. It was shown that the model developed is robust and has a good predictive potential (r2 = 0.9064, RMSE = 0.09, q2 = 0.7323, rp2 = 0.7656, RMSP = 0.14. The mechanistic interpretation of the final model was given by the high variable importance in projection values of descriptors. Using PLS procedure, we can rapidly and effectively select optimal descriptors and thus construct a model with good stability and predictability. This analysis can provide an effective tool for the high-throughput screening of the placental barrier permeability of drugs.

  14. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2014-02-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based on a spline approximation of the nonparametric part of the model and the generalized estimating equations (GEE). Although the model in consideration is natural and useful in many practical applications, the literature on this model is very limited because of challenges in dealing with dependent data for nonparametric additive models. We show that the proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal even if the covariance structure is misspecified. An explicit consistent estimate of the asymptotic variance is also provided. Moreover, we derive the semiparametric efficiency score and information bound under general moment conditions. By showing that our estimators achieve the semiparametric information bound, we effectively establish their efficiency in a stronger sense than what is typically considered for GEE. The derivation of our asymptotic results relies heavily on the empirical processes tools that we develop for the longitudinal/clustered data. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2014 ISI/BS.

  15. CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela BARBULESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

  16. Development and Validity of a Silicone Renal Tumor Model for Robotic Partial Nephrectomy Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monda, Steven M; Weese, Jonathan R; Anderson, Barrett G; Vetter, Joel M; Venkatesh, Ramakrishna; Du, Kefu; Andriole, Gerald L; Figenshau, Robert S

    2018-04-01

    To provide a training tool to address the technical challenges of robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy, we created silicone renal tumor models using 3-dimensional printed molds of a patient's kidney with a mass. In this study, we assessed the face, content, and construct validity of these models. Surgeons of different training levels completed 4 simulations on silicone renal tumor models. Participants were surveyed on the usefulness and realism of the model as a training tool. Performance was measured using operation-specific metrics, self-reported operative demands (NASA Task Load Index [NASA TLX]), and blinded expert assessment (Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Surgeons [GEARS]). Twenty-four participants included attending urologists, endourology fellows, urology residents, and medical students. Post-training surveys of expert participants yielded mean results of 79.2 on the realism of the model's overall feel and 90.2 on the model's overall usefulness for training. Renal artery clamp times and GEARS scores were significantly better in surgeons further in training (P ≤.005 and P ≤.025). Renal artery clamp times, preserved renal parenchyma, positive margins, NASA TLX, and GEARS scores were all found to improve across trials (P <.001, P = .025, P = .024, P ≤.020, and P ≤.006, respectively). Face, content, and construct validity were demonstrated in the use of a silicone renal tumor model in a cohort of surgeons of different training levels. Expert participants deemed the model useful and realistic. Surgeons of higher training levels performed better than less experienced surgeons in various study metrics, and improvements within individuals were observed over sequential trials. Future studies should aim to assess model predictive validity, namely, the association between model performance improvements and improvements in live surgery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. CREDIT RISK MINIMIZATION WAYS AND PRICING OF BANKING SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. E. Gladkova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate accounting of own expenses on rendering banking services and forming reasonable prices for them make it possible for commercial banks to adequately react to market situation changes. Credit risk minimization comprises: credit rationing (in Russia according to RF Central Bank norms; credit diversification; credit structuring; and forming reserves to cover respective bank risks (also in accordance with RF CB documents. Effective is bank credit hedging (insuring through credit derivatives. Most advanced at international finance markets are such risk minimization systems as Basel-II and IRBA. Pricing models based on individual assessment of each borrower’s risk class (Risk Based Pricing approach are widely used.

  18. Application of multidimensional IRT models to longitudinal data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Marvelde, J.M.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Van Landeghem, Georges; Van Damme, Jan

    2006-01-01

    The application of multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models to longitudinal educational surveys where students are repeatedly measured is discussed and exemplified. A marginal maximum likelihood (MML) method to estimate the parameters of a multidimensional generalized partial credit model

  19. A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidal-Codina, F.; Nguyen, N.C.; Giles, M.B.; Peraire, J.

    2015-01-01

    We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method

  20. Ghost imaging and its visibility with partially coherent elliptical Gaussian Schell-model beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Meilan; Zhu, Weiting; Zhao, Daomu

    2015-01-01

    The performances of the ghost image and the visibility with partially coherent elliptical Gaussian Schell-model beams have been studied. In that case we have derived the condition under which the goal ghost image is achievable. Furthermore, the visibility is assessed in terms of the parameters related to the source to find that the visibility reduces with the increase of the beam size, while it is a monotonic increasing function of the transverse coherence length. More specifically, it is found that the inequalities of the source sizes in x and y directions, as well as the transverse coherence lengths, play an important role in the ghost image and the visibility. - Highlights: • We studied the ghost image and visibility with partially coherent EGSM beams. • We derived the condition under which the goal ghost image is achievable. • The visibility is assessed in terms of the parameters related to the source. • The source sizes and coherence lengths play role in the ghost image and visibility.

  1. Gamma-Ray Emission Tomography: Modeling and Evaluation of Partial-Defect Testing Capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobsson Svard, S.; Jansson, P.; Davour, A.; Grape, S.; White, T.A.; Smith, L.E.; Deshmukh, N.; Wittman, R.S.; Mozin, V.; Trellue, H.

    2015-01-01

    Gamma emission tomography (GET) for spent nuclear fuel verification is the subject for IAEA MSP project JNT1955. In line with IAEA Safeguards R&D plan 2012-2023, the aim of this effort is to ''develop more sensitive and less intrusive alternatives to existing NDA instruments to perform partial defect test on spent fuel assembly prior to transfer to difficult to access storage''. The current viability study constitutes the first phase of three, with evaluation and decision points between each phase. Two verification objectives have been identified; (1) counting of fuel pins in tomographic images without any a priori knowledge of the fuel assembly under study, and (2) quantitative measurements of pinby- pin properties, e.g., burnup, for the detection of anomalies and/or verification of operator-declared data. Previous measurements performed in Sweden and Finland have proven GET highly promising for detecting removed or substituted fuel rods in BWR and VVER-440 fuel assemblies even down to the individual fuel rod level. The current project adds to previous experiences by pursuing a quantitative assessment of the capabilities of GET for partial defect detection, across a broad range of potential IAEA applications, fuel types and fuel parameters. A modelling and performance-evaluation framework has been developed to provide quantitative GET performance predictions, incorporating burn-up and cooling-time calculations, Monte Carlo radiation-transport and detector-response modelling, GET instrument definitions (existing and notional) and tomographic reconstruction algorithms, which use recorded gamma-ray intensities to produce images of the fuel's internal source distribution or conclusive rod-by-rod data. The framework also comprises image-processing algorithms and performance metrics that recognize the inherent tradeoff between the probability of detecting missing pins and the false-alarm rate. Here, the modelling and analysis framework is

  2. Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeganeh, B.; Motlagh, M. Shafie Pour; Rashidi, Y.; Kamalan, H.

    2012-08-01

    Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS-SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS-SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65-85% for hybrid PLS-SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS-SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS-SVM model.

  3. Real-time characterization of partially observed epidemics using surrogate models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Crary, David (Applied Research Associates, Arlington, VA); Sargsyan, Khachik; Cheng, Karen (Applied Research Associates, Arlington, VA)

    2011-09-01

    We present a statistical method, predicated on the use of surrogate models, for the 'real-time' characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease, that may be available in the early epoch of an ongoing outbreak. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information on the dynamics of the etiologic agent in the affected population e.g., the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and epidemiological parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. In some cases, the inverse problem can be computationally expensive, primarily due to the epidemic simulator used inside the inversion algorithm. We present a method, based on replacing the epidemiological model with computationally inexpensive surrogates, that can reduce the computational time to minutes, without a significant loss of accuracy. The surrogates are created by projecting the output of an epidemiological model on a set of polynomial chaos bases; thereafter, computations involving the surrogate model reduce to evaluations of a polynomial. We find that the epidemic characterizations obtained with the surrogate models is very close to that obtained with the original model. We also find that the number of projections required to construct a surrogate model is O(10)-O(10{sup 2}) less than the number of samples required by the MCMC to construct a stationary posterior distribution; thus, depending upon the epidemiological models in question, it may be possible to omit the offline creation and caching of surrogate models, prior to their use in an inverse problem. The technique is demonstrated on synthetic data as well as

  4. A Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Crashes at Mid-Blocks in Melbourne Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toran Pour Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrian crashes account for 11% of all reported traffic crashes in Melbourne metropolitan area between 2004 and 2013. There are very limited studies on pedestrian accidents at mid-blocks. Mid-block crashes account for about 46% of the total pedestrian crashes in Melbourne metropolitan area. Meanwhile, about 50% of all pedestrian fatalities occur at mid-blocks. In this research, Partial Proportional Odds (PPO model is applied to examine vehicle-pedestrian crash severity at mid-blocks in Melbourne metropolitan area. The PPO model is a logistic regression model that allows the covariates that meet the proportional odds assumption to affect different crash severity levels with the same magnitude; whereas the covariates that do not meet the proportional odds assumption can have different effects on different severity levels. In this research vehicle-pedestrian crashes at mid-blocks are analysed for first time. In addition, some factors such as distance of crashes to public transport stops, average road slope and some social characteristics are considered to develop the model in this research for first time. Results of PPO model show that speed limit, light condition, pedestrian age and gender, and vehicle type are the most significant factors that influence vehicle-pedestrian crash severity at mid-blocks.

  5. The Occupancy Rate Modeling of Kendari Hotel Room using Mexican Hat Transformation and Partial Least Squares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaretha Ohyver

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Partial Least Squares (PLS method was developed in 1960 by Herman Wold. The method particularly suits with construct a regression model when the number of independent variables is many and highly collinear. The PLS can be combined with other methods, one of which is a Continuous Wavelet Transformation (CWT. By considering that the presence of outliers can lead to a less reliable model, and this kind of transformation may be required at a stage of pre-processing, the data is free of noise or outliers. Based on the previous study, Kendari hotel room occupancy rate was affected by the outlier, and it had a low value of R2. Therefore, this research aimed to obtain a good model by combining the PLS method and CWT transformation using the Mexican Hats them other wavelet of CWT. The research concludes that merging the PLS and the Mexican Hat transformation has resulted in a better model compared to the model that combined the PLS and the Haar wavelet transformation as shown in the previous study. The research shows that by changing the mother of the wavelet, the value of R2 can be improved significantly. The result provides information on how to increase the value of R2. The other advantage is the information for hotel managements to notice the age of the hotel, the maximum rates, the facilities, and the number of rooms to increase the number of visitors.

  6. 12 CFR Appendix to Part 215 - Section 5200 of the Revised Statutes Total Loans and Extensions of Credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... extensions of credit and not upon any full or partial recourse endorsement or guarantee by the transferor... Loans and Extensions of Credit Appendix to Part 215 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF... Statutes Total Loans and Extensions of Credit (a)(1) The total loans and extensions of credit by a national...

  7. Methodology of Credit Analysis Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slađana Neogradi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of research presented in this paper refers to the definition of methodology for the development of credit analysis in companies and its application in lending operations in the Republic of Serbia. With the developing credit market, there is a growing need for a well-developed risk and loss prevention system. In the introduction the process of bank analysis of the loan applicant is presented in order to minimize and manage the credit risk. By examining the subject matter, the process of processing the credit application is described, the procedure of analyzing the financial statements in order to get an insight into the borrower's creditworthiness. In the second part of the paper, the theoretical and methodological framework is presented applied in the concrete company. In the third part, models are presented which banks should use to protect against exposure to risks, i.e. their goal is to reduce losses on loan operations in our country, as well as to adjust to market conditions in an optimal way.

  8. Comparative study of non-premixed and partially-premixed combustion simulations in a realistic Tay model combustor

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, K.; Ghobadian, A.; Nouri, J. M.

    2017-01-01

    A comparative study of two combustion models based on non-premixed assumption and partially premixed assumptions using the overall models of Zimont Turbulent Flame Speed Closure Method (ZTFSC) and Extended Coherent Flamelet Method (ECFM) are conducted through Reynolds stress turbulence modelling of Tay model gas turbine combustor for the first time. The Tay model combustor retains all essential features of a realistic gas turbine combustor. It is seen that the non-premixed combustion model fa...

  9. MONITORING IN CREDIT INSTITUTIONS – COMPARATIVE APPROACH ON INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEMS – THE CASE OF ROMANIA VS. INTERNATIONAL MODELS OF CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MURESAN MARIANA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the stipulations of the two well-known internal control system models – COSO and CoCo - the purpose of this paper is to focus on the Romanian framework for credit institutions – trying to to identify on which international model is our national one most appropriate to. The research methodology is based on an empirical analysis between Romanian regulation and the models already mentioned. To reach to a conclusion we tried to identify several key issues closely related to information and communication, and to determine the degree of similarities and dissimilarities between the three selected frameworks, by using statistical indicators. The paper has some limitations, too, because it only approaches formal harmonization. So, those issues analyzed through the regulations’ perspectives need to be closely quantified in matters of their actual implementation, which offer us outlooks of future research.

  10. Cash or Credit? Compensation in Psychology Studies: Motivation Matters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holly J. Bowen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is common practice for psychology researchers to recruit their sample of participants from the undergraduate student population. Participants are typically compensated with partial course credit or a monetary payment. The current study reveals that the motivation to participate in a study (cash versus course credit can relate to performance on a behavioral task of rewarded memory. In Experiment 1, undergraduate participants were recruited and compensated for their time with either partial course credit or cash. Potential performance-based cash rewards were earned during a rewarded memory task, where correct recognition of half the stimuli was worth a high reward and the other half a low reward. Memory for high reward items was better than low reward items, but only for the cash group. The credit group did not modulate their performance based on the value of the stimuli. In Experiment 2, undergraduates were compensated with partial course credit for their time and given the opportunity to earn a bonus credit for performance on a memory test. The findings were in line with the results from the credit group of Experiment 1, suggesting that the modulation of performance in the cash group of Experiment 1 cannot be accounted for by congruency between motivation to participate and reward for task performance. Of methodological importance, the findings indicate that recruiting and compensating participants with cash versus course credit may influence the results on a rewarded memory task. This factor should be taken into consideration in studies of reward motivation.

  11. Application of the chronic constriction injury of the partial sciatic nerve model to assess acupuncture analgesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi MJ

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mu-Jun Zhi,1,2,* Kun Liu,1,* Zhou-Li Zheng,1,3 Xun He,1 Tie Li,2 Guang Sun,1,2 Meng Zhang,4 Fu-Chun Wang,2 Xin-Yan Gao,1 Bing Zhu1 1Department of Physiology, Institute of Acupuncture and Moxibustion, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 2College of Acupuncture and Moxibustion, Changchun University of Chinese Medicine, Changchun, People’s Republic of China; 3College of Acupuncture and Moxibution, Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Chinese Medicine, Dongli Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: To validate and explore the application of a rat model of chronic constriction injury to the partial sciatic nerve in investigation of acupuncture analgesia.Methods: Chronic constriction injury of the sciatic nerve (CCI and chronic constriction injury of the partial sciatic nerve (CCIp models were generated by ligating either the sciatic nerve trunk or its branches in rats. Both models were evaluated via paw mechanical withdrawal latency (PMWL, paw mechanical withdrawal threshold (PMWT, nociceptive reflex-induced electromyogram (C-fiber reflex EMG, and dorsal root ganglion immunohistochemistry. Electroacupuncture (EA was performed at GB30 to study the analgesic effects on neuropathic pain and the underlying mechanisms.Results: Following ligation of the common peroneal and tibial nerves, CCIp rats exhibited hindlimb dysfunction, hind paw shrinkage and lameness, mirroring those of CCI rats (generated by ligating the sciatic nerve trunk. Compared to presurgery measurements, CCIp and CCI modeling significantly decreased the PMWL and PMWT. EA at GB30 increased the PMWL and PMWT in both CCI and CCIp rats. Calcitonin gene-related polypeptide and substance P expressions were apparently increased in both CCI and CCIp groups, but were not different from each other. The C

  12. Robust estimation of partially linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts and measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Guoyou; Zhang, Jiajia; Zhu, Zhongyi; Fung, Wing

    2016-12-20

    Outliers, measurement error, and missing data are commonly seen in longitudinal data because of its data collection process. However, no method can address all three of these issues simultaneously. This paper focuses on the robust estimation of partially linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts and measurement error. A new robust estimating equation, simultaneously tackling outliers, measurement error, and missingness, is proposed. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are established under some regularity conditions. The proposed method is easy to implement in practice by utilizing the existing standard generalized estimating equations algorithms. The comprehensive simulation studies show the strength of the proposed method in dealing with longitudinal data with all three features. Finally, the proposed method is applied to data from the Lifestyle Education for Activity and Nutrition study and confirms the effectiveness of the intervention in producing weight loss at month 9. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Success of mainstream partial nitritation/anammox demands integration of engineering, microbiome and modeling insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Shelesh; Seuntjens, Dries; Cocker, Pieter De; Lackner, Susanne; Vlaeminck, Siegfried E

    2018-04-01

    Twenty years ago, mainstream partial nitritation/anammox (PN/A) was conceptually proposed as pivotal for a more sustainable treatment of municipal wastewater. Its economic potential spurred research, yet practice awaits a comprehensive recipe for microbial resource management. Implementing mainstream PN/A requires transferable and operable ways to steer microbial competition as to meet discharge requirements on a year-round basis at satisfactory conversion rates. In essence, the competition for nitrogen, organic carbon and oxygen is grouped into 'ON/OFF' (suppression/promotion) and 'IN/OUT' (wash-out/retention and seeding) strategies, selecting for desirable conversions and microbes. Some insights need mechanistic understanding, while empirical observations suffice elsewhere. The provided methodological R&D framework integrates insights in engineering, microbiome and modeling. Such synergism should catalyze the implementation of energy-positive sewage treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbei Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

  15. CMS Partial Releases Model, Tools, and Applications. Online and Framework-Light Releases

    CERN Document Server

    Jones, Christopher D; Meschi, Emilio; Shahzad Muzaffar; Andreas Pfeiffer; Ratnikova, Natalia; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth

    2009-01-01

    The CMS Software project CMSSW embraces more than a thousand packages organized in subsystems for analysis, event display, reconstruction, simulation, detector description, data formats, framework, utilities and tools. The release integration process is highly automated by using tools developed or adopted by CMS. Packaging in rpm format is a built-in step in the software build process. For several well-defined applications it is highly desirable to have only a subset of the CMSSW full package bundle. For example, High Level Trigger algorithms that run on the Online farm, and need to be rebuilt in a special way, require no simulation, event display, or analysis packages. Physics analysis applications in Root environment require only a few core libraries and the description of CMS specific data formats. We present a model of CMS Partial Releases, used for preparation of the customized CMS software builds, including description of the tools used, the implementation, and how we deal with technical challenges, suc...

  16. A frictionally and hydraulically constrained model of the convectively driven mean flow in partially enclosed seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxworthy, T.

    1997-08-01

    A simple three-layer model of the dynamics of partially enclosed seas, driven by a surface buoyancy flux, is presented. It contains two major elements, a hydraulic constraint at the exit contraction and friction in the interior of the main body of the sea; both together determine the vertical structure and magnitudes of the interior flow variables, i.e. velocity and density. Application of the model to the large-scale dynamics of the Red Sea gives results that are not in disagreement with observation once the model is applied, also, to predict the dense outflow from the Gulf of Suez. The latter appears to be the agent responsible for the formation of dense bottom water in this system. Also, the model is reasonably successful in predicting the density of the outflow from the Persian Gulf, and can be applied to any number of other examples of convectively driven flow in long, narrow channels, with or without sills and constrictions at their exits.

  17. Research on odor interaction between aldehyde compounds via a partial differential equation (PDE) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Luchun; Liu, Jiemin; Qu, Chen; Gu, Xingye; Zhao, Xia

    2015-01-28

    In order to explore the odor interaction of binary odor mixtures, a series of odor intensity evaluation tests were performed using both individual components and binary mixtures of aldehydes. Based on the linear relation between the logarithm of odor activity value and odor intensity of individual substances, the relationship between concentrations of individual constituents and their joint odor intensity was investigated by employing a partial differential equation (PDE) model. The obtained results showed that the binary odor interaction was mainly influenced by the mixing ratio of two constituents, but not the concentration level of an odor sample. Besides, an extended PDE model was also proposed on the basis of the above experiments. Through a series of odor intensity matching tests for several different binary odor mixtures, the extended PDE model was proved effective at odor intensity prediction. Furthermore, odorants of the same chemical group and similar odor type exhibited similar characteristics in the binary odor interaction. The overall results suggested that the PDE model is a more interpretable way of demonstrating the odor interactions of binary odor mixtures.

  18. Nitrous Oxide Production in a Granule-based Partial Nitritation Reactor: A Model-based Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Lai; Sun, Jing; Liu, Yiwen; Dai, Xiaohu; Ni, Bing-Jie

    2017-04-03

    Sustainable wastewater treatment has been attracting increasing attentions over the past decades. However, the production of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent GHG, from the energy-efficient granule-based autotrophic nitrogen removal is largely unknown. This study applied a previously established N 2 O model, which incorporated two N 2 O production pathways by ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) (AOB denitrification and the hydroxylamine (NH 2 OH) oxidation). The two-pathway model was used to describe N 2 O production from a granule-based partial nitritation (PN) reactor and provide insights into the N 2 O distribution inside granules. The model was evaluated by comparing simulation results with N 2 O monitoring profiles as well as isotopic measurement data from the PN reactor. The model demonstrated its good predictive ability against N 2 O dynamics and provided useful information about the shift of N 2 O production pathways inside granules for the first time. The simulation results indicated that the increase of oxygen concentration and granule size would significantly enhance N 2 O production. The results further revealed a linear relationship between N 2 O production and ammonia oxidation rate (AOR) (R 2  = 0.99) under the conditions of varying oxygen levels and granule diameters, suggesting that bulk oxygen and granule size may exert an indirect effect on N 2 O production by causing a change in AOR.

  19. Statistical mechanics of normal grain growth in one dimension: A partial integro-differential equation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, Felix S.L.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a statistical-mechanical model of one-dimensional normal grain growth that does not require any drift-velocity parameterization for grain size, such as used in the continuity equation of traditional mean-field theories. The model tracks the population by considering grain sizes in neighbour pairs; the probability of a pair having neighbours of certain sizes is determined by the size-frequency distribution of all pairs. Accordingly, the evolution obeys a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) over ‘grain size versus neighbour grain size’ space, so that the grain-size distribution is a projection of the PIDE's solution. This model, which is applicable before as well as after statistically self-similar grain growth has been reached, shows that the traditional continuity equation is invalid outside this state. During statistically self-similar growth, the PIDE correctly predicts the coarsening rate, invariant grain-size distribution and spatial grain size correlations observed in direct simulations. The PIDE is then reducible to the standard continuity equation, and we derive an explicit expression for the drift velocity. It should be possible to formulate similar parameterization-free models of normal grain growth in two and three dimensions.

  20. Modeling of strongly heat-driven flow in partially saturated fractured porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pruess, K.; Tsang, Y.W.; Wang, J.S.Y.

    1985-01-01

    The authors have performed modeling studies on the simultaneous transport of heat, liquid water, vapor, and air in partially saturated fractured porous media, with particular emphasis on strongly heat-driven flow. The presence of fractures makes the transport problem very complex, both in terms of flow geometry and physics. The numerical simulator used for their flow calculations takes into account most of the physical effects which are important in multi-phase fluid and heat flow. It has provisions to handle the extreme non-linearities which arise in phase transitions, component disappearances, and capillary discontinuities at fracture faces. They model a region around an infinite linear string of nuclear waste canisters, taking into account both the discrete fractures and the porous matrix. From an analysis of the results obtained with explicit fractures, they develop equivalent continuum models which can reproduce the temperature, saturation, and pressure variation, and gas and liquid flow rates of the discrete fracture-porous matrix calculations. The equivalent continuum approach makes use of a generalized relative permeability concept to take into account the fracture effects. This results in a substantial simplification of the flow problem which makes larger scale modeling of complicated unsaturated fractured porous systems feasible. Potential applications for regional scale simulations and limitations of the continuum approach are discussed. 27 references, 13 figures, 2 tables

  1. Processes, mechanisms, parameters, and modeling approaches for partially saturated flow in soil and rock media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.S.Y.; Narasimhan, T.N.

    1993-06-01

    This report discusses conceptual models and mathematical equations, analyzes distributions and correlations among hydrological parameters of soils and tuff, introduces new path integration approaches, and outlines scaling procedures to model potential-driven fluid flow in heterogeneous media. To properly model the transition from fracture-dominated flow under saturated conditions to matrix-dominated flow under partially saturated conditions, characteristic curves and permeability functions for fractures and matrix need to be improved and validated. Couplings from two-phase flow, heat transfer, solute transport, and rock deformation to liquid flow are also important. For stochastic modeling of alternating units of welded and nonwelded tuff or formations bounded by fault zones, correlations and constraints on average values of saturated permeability and air entry scaling factor between different units need to be imposed to avoid unlikely combinations of parameters and predictions. Large-scale simulations require efficient and verifiable numerical algorithms. New path integration approaches based on postulates of minimum work and mass conservation to solve flow geometry and potential distribution simultaneously are introduced. This verifiable integral approach, together with fractal scaling procedures to generate statistical realizations with parameter distribution, correlation, and scaling taken into account, can be used to quantify uncertainties and generate the cumulative distribution function for groundwater travel times

  2. Internalisation of external costs in the Polish power generation sector: A partial equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudelko, Mariusz

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a methodical framework, which is the basis for the economic analysis of the mid-term planning of development of the Polish energy system. The description of the partial equilibrium model and its results are demonstrated for different scenarios applied. The model predicts the generation, investment and pricing of mid-term decisions that refer to the Polish electricity and heat markets. The current structure of the Polish energy sector is characterised by interactions between the supply and demand sides of the energy sector. The supply side regards possibilities to deliver fuels from domestic and import sources and their conversion through transformation processes. Public power plants, public CHP plants, industry CHP plants and municipal heat plants represent the main producers of energy in Poland. Demand is characterised by the major energy consumers, i.e. industry and construction, transport, agriculture, trade and services, individual consumers and export. The relationships between the domestic electricity and heat markets are modelled taking into account external costs estimates. The volume and structure of energy production, electricity and heat prices, emissions, external costs and social welfare of different scenarios are presented. Results of the model demonstrate that the internalisation of external costs through the increase in energy prices implies significant improvement in social welfare

  3. Modeling of strongly heat-driven flow in partially saturated fractured porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pruess, K.; Tsang, Y.W.; Wang, J.S.Y.

    1984-10-01

    We have performed modeling studies on the simultaneous transport of heat, liquid water, vapor, and air in partially saturated fractured porous media, with particular emphasis on strongly heat-driven flow. The presence of fractures makes the transport problem very complex, both in terms of flow geometry and physics. The numerical simulator used for our flow calculations takes into account most of the physical effects which are important in multi-phase fluid and heat flow. It has provisions to handle the extreme non-linearities which arise in phase transitions, component disappearances, and capillary discontinuities at fracture faces. We model a region around an infinite linear string of nuclear waste canisters, taking into account both the discrete fractures and the porous matrix. From an analysis of the results obtained with explicit fractures, we develop equivalent continuum models which can reproduce the temperature, saturation, and pressure variation, and gas and liquid flow rates of the discrete fracture-porous matrix calculations. The equivalent continuum approach makes use of a generalized relative permeability concept to take into account for fracture effects. This results in a substantial simplification of the flow problem which makes larger scale modeling of complicated unsaturated fractured porous systems feasible. Potential applications for regional scale simulations and limitations of the continuum approach are discussed. 27 references, 13 figures, 2 tables

  4. Trust and Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    The present paper is an answer to the question, how did trust and credit emerge. The systems of trust and credit reduce the environmental and contextual complexities in which trust and credit are embedded. The paper analyses the forms of this reduction in a number of stages in the evolution...... of history from the present risk of modern systems back to early modernity, the Reformation and the high medieval Revolutions in law, organization and theology. It is not a history of economics, but a history of the conditions of some communication codes used in economic systems....

  5. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

  6. Effects of Credit on Economic Growth, Unemployment and Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar

    2016-06-01

                  Effect of credit on economic growth, unemployment and poverty provides evidence from Indonesia on the role of banks credit for promoting economic growth and reducing both unemployment and poverty.  To document the link between banks credit and economic growth, we estimate a VAR model and variance decompositions of annual GDP per capita growth rates to examine what proxy measures of banks credit are most important in accounting for economic growth over time and how much they contribute to explaining economic growth.  We also estimate an ECM to document the relationship between banks credit to both unemployment and poverty.  This paper revealed bi-direction causality between banks credit and economic growth.  Banks credit promotes economic growth and economic growth affects credit depth and financial development.  Furthermore, banks credit is a growth accelerating factor on Indonesian economic growth.  Banks credit is an endogenous growth and a good predictor on Indonesian economy. Our estimation model explained that credit allocated by banks increases business escalation to the real sectors then promotes economic growth, decreases unemployment rate through increasing in labor demanded, increases income and then decrease poverty.  This overall transmission mechanism just occurred through presence of banks credit by increasing money supply to the real sectors, promotes growth and social welfare.   Keywords :  banks credit, economic growth, growth accelerating factor, poverty, unemployment   JEL Classification : E51, E52, E58

  7. Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Neural Model based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh P N Rao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. Actions are selected based not on a single optimal estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the belief state. We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize

  8. Implementation of geomechanical models for engineered clay barriers in multi-physic partial differential equation solvers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navarro, V.; Alonso, J.; Asensio, L.; Yustres, A.; Pintado, X.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. The use of numerical methods, especially the Finite Element Method (FEM), for solving boundary problems in Unsaturated Soil Mechanics has experienced significant progress. Several codes, both built mainly for research purposes and commercial software, are now available. In the last years, Multi-physic Partial Differentiation Equation Solvers (MPDES) have turned out to be an interesting proposal. In this family of solvers, the user defines the governing equations and the behaviour models, generally using a computer algebra environment. The code automatically assembles and solves the equation systems, saving the user having to redefine the structures of memory storage or to implement solver algorithms. The user can focus on the definition of the physics of the problem, while it is possible to couple virtually any physical or chemical process that can be described by a PDE. This can be done, for instance, in COMSOL Multiphysics (CM). Nonetheless, the versatility of CM is compromised by the impossibility to implement models with variables defined by implicit functions. Elasto-plastic models involve an implicit coupling among stress increments, plastic strains and plastic variables increments. For this reason, they cannot be implemented in CM in a straightforward way. This means a very relevant limitation for the use of this tool in the analysis of geomechanical boundary value problems. In this work, a strategy to overcome this problem using the multi-physics concept is presented. A mixed method is proposed, considering the constitutive stresses, the pre-consolidation pressure and the plastic variables as main unknowns of the model. Mixed methods usually present stability problems. However, the algorithmics present in CM include several numerical strategies to minimise this kind of problems. Besides, CM is based on the application of the FEM with Lagrange multipliers, an approach that significantly contributes stability

  9. Credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Pětníková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

  10. Credit derivatives in emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Romain Rancière

    2002-01-01

    Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

  11. A Course to Promote Informed Selection of an Engineering Major Using a Partially Flipped Classroom Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Kerry Lynn

    2016-01-01

    A 1 credit hour First-Year Engineering Course which provides background to students on the engineering disciplinary options available to them was redesigned to help inform the selection of their engineering major for future study. Initially, course administration was a large lecture class but was transformed into smaller classes that were…

  12. A deterministic partial differential equation model for dose calculation in electron radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duclous, R; Dubroca, B; Frank, M

    2010-07-07

    High-energy ionizing radiation is a prominent modality for the treatment of many cancers. The approaches to electron dose calculation can be categorized into semi-empirical models (e.g. Fermi-Eyges, convolution-superposition) and probabilistic methods (e.g.Monte Carlo). A third approach to dose calculation has only recently attracted attention in the medical physics community. This approach is based on the deterministic kinetic equations of radiative transfer. We derive a macroscopic partial differential equation model for electron transport in tissue. This model involves an angular closure in the phase space. It is exact for the free streaming and the isotropic regime. We solve it numerically by a newly developed HLLC scheme based on Berthon et al (2007 J. Sci. Comput. 31 347-89) that exactly preserves the key properties of the analytical solution on the discrete level. We discuss several test cases taken from the medical physics literature. A test case with an academic Henyey-Greenstein scattering kernel is considered. We compare our model to a benchmark discrete ordinate solution. A simplified model of electron interactions with tissue is employed to compute the dose of an electron beam in a water phantom, and a case of irradiation of the vertebral column. Here our model is compared to the PENELOPE Monte Carlo code. In the academic example, the fluences computed with the new model and a benchmark result differ by less than 1%. The depths at half maximum differ by less than 0.6%. In the two comparisons with Monte Carlo, our model gives qualitatively reasonable dose distributions. Due to the crude interaction model, these so far do not have the accuracy needed in clinical practice. However, the new model has a computational cost that is less than one-tenth of the cost of a Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, simulations can be set up in a similar way as a Monte Carlo simulation. If more detailed effects such as coupled electron-photon transport, bremsstrahlung

  13. A deterministic partial differential equation model for dose calculation in electron radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duclous, R.; Dubroca, B.; Frank, M.

    2010-07-01

    High-energy ionizing radiation is a prominent modality for the treatment of many cancers. The approaches to electron dose calculation can be categorized into semi-empirical models (e.g. Fermi-Eyges, convolution-superposition) and probabilistic methods (e.g. Monte Carlo). A third approach to dose calculation has only recently attracted attention in the medical physics community. This approach is based on the deterministic kinetic equations of radiative transfer. We derive a macroscopic partial differential equation model for electron transport in tissue. This model involves an angular closure in the phase space. It is exact for the free streaming and the isotropic regime. We solve it numerically by a newly developed HLLC scheme based on Berthon et al (2007 J. Sci. Comput. 31 347-89) that exactly preserves the key properties of the analytical solution on the discrete level. We discuss several test cases taken from the medical physics literature. A test case with an academic Henyey-Greenstein scattering kernel is considered. We compare our model to a benchmark discrete ordinate solution. A simplified model of electron interactions with tissue is employed to compute the dose of an electron beam in a water phantom, and a case of irradiation of the vertebral column. Here our model is compared to the PENELOPE Monte Carlo code. In the academic example, the fluences computed with the new model and a benchmark result differ by less than 1%. The depths at half maximum differ by less than 0.6%. In the two comparisons with Monte Carlo, our model gives qualitatively reasonable dose distributions. Due to the crude interaction model, these so far do not have the accuracy needed in clinical practice. However, the new model has a computational cost that is less than one-tenth of the cost of a Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, simulations can be set up in a similar way as a Monte Carlo simulation. If more detailed effects such as coupled electron-photon transport, bremsstrahlung

  14. Implied Materiality and Material Disclosures of Credit Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Eccles, Robert G; Youmans, Timothy John

    2015-01-01

    This first of three papers in our series on materiality in credit ratings will examine the materiality of credit ratings from an “implied materiality” and governance disclosure perspective. In the second paper, we will explore the materiality of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in credit ratings’ methodologies and introduce the concept of “layered materiality.” In the third paper, we will evaluate current and potential credit rating agency (CRA) business models based on our...

  15. How do we make models that are useful in understanding partial epilepsies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, David A

    2014-01-01

    The goals of constructing epilepsy models are (1) to develop approaches to prophylaxis of epileptogenesis following cortical injury; (2) to devise selective treatments for established epilepsies based on underlying pathophysiological mechanisms; and (3) use of a disease (epilepsy) model to explore brain molecular, cellular and circuit properties. Modeling a particular epilepsy syndrome requires detailed knowledge of key clinical phenomenology and results of human experiments that can be addressed in critically designed laboratory protocols. Contributions to understanding mechanisms and treatment of neurological disorders has often come from research not focused on a specific disease-relevant issue. Much of the foundation for current research in epilepsy falls into this category. Too strict a definition of the relevance of an experimental model to progress in preventing or curing epilepsy may, in the long run, slow progress. Inadequate exploration of the experimental target and basic laboratory results in a given model can lead to a failed effort and false negative or positive results. Models should be chosen based on the specific issues to be addressed rather than on convenience of use. Multiple variables including maturational age, species and strain, lesion type, severity and location, latency from injury to experiment and genetic background will affect results. A number of key issues in clinical and basic research in partial epilepsies remain to be addressed including the mechanisms active during the latent period following injury, susceptibility factors that predispose to epileptogenesis, injury - induced adaptive versus maladaptive changes, mechanisms of pharmaco-resistance and strategies to deal with multiple pathophysiological processes occurring in parallel.

  16. Extended causal modeling to assess Partial Directed Coherence in multiple time series with significant instantaneous interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2010-11-01

    The Partial Directed Coherence (PDC) and its generalized formulation (gPDC) are popular tools for investigating, in the frequency domain, the concept of Granger causality among multivariate (MV) time series. PDC and gPDC are formalized in terms of the coefficients of an MV autoregressive (MVAR) model which describes only the lagged effects among the time series and forsakes instantaneous effects. However, instantaneous effects are known to affect linear parametric modeling, and are likely to occur in experimental time series. In this study, we investigate the impact on the assessment of frequency domain causality of excluding instantaneous effects from the model underlying PDC evaluation. Moreover, we propose the utilization of an extended MVAR model including both instantaneous and lagged effects. This model is used to assess PDC either in accordance with the definition of Granger causality when considering only lagged effects (iPDC), or with an extended form of causality, when we consider both instantaneous and lagged effects (ePDC). The approach is first evaluated on three theoretical examples of MVAR processes, which show that the presence of instantaneous correlations may produce misleading profiles of PDC and gPDC, while ePDC and iPDC derived from the extended model provide here a correct interpretation of extended and lagged causality. It is then applied to representative examples of cardiorespiratory and EEG MV time series. They suggest that ePDC and iPDC are better interpretable than PDC and gPDC in terms of the known cardiovascular and neural physiologies.

  17. Public Service? Tax Credits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanker, Albert

    1982-01-01

    Acknowledges the good work of private schools but resists the provision of further direct or indirect government aid to these schools. Argues that tax credits will adversely affect public education and American society. (Author/WD)

  18. Burnup credit in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conde, J.M.; Recio, M.

    2001-01-01

    The status of development of burnup credit for criticality safety analyses in Spain is described in this paper. Ongoing activities in the country in this field, both national and international, are resumed. Burnup credit is currently being applied to wet storage of PWR fuel, and credit to integral burnable absorbers is given for BWR fuel storage. It is envisaged to apply burnup credit techniques to the new generation of transport casks now in the design phase. The analysis methodologies submitted for the analyses of PWR and BWR fuel wet storage are outlined. Analytical activities in the country are described, as well as international collaborations in this field. Perspectives for future research and development of new applications are finally resumed. (author)

  19. Inventory and Credit Decisions under Day-Terms Credit Linked Demand and Allowance for Bad Debts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. Aggarwal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to stimulate demand of their product, firms generally give credit period to their customers. However, selling on credit exposes the firms to the additional dimension of bad debts expense (i.e., customer’s default. Moreover, credit period through its influence on demand becomes a determinant of inventory decisions and inventory sold on credit gets converted to accounts receivable indicating the interaction between the two. Since inventory and credit decisions are interrelated, inventory decisions must be determined jointly with credit decisions. Consequently, in this paper, a mathematical model is developed to determine inventory and credit decisions jointly. The demand rate is assumed to be a logistic function of credit period. The accounts receivable carrying cost along with an explicit consideration of bad debt expense which have been often ignored in previous models are incorporated in the present model. The discounted cash flow approach (DCF is used to develop the model and the objective is to maximize the present value of the firm’s net profit per unit time. Finally, numerical example and sensitivity analysis have been done to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  20. A model reduction approach to numerical inversion for a parabolic partial differential equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borcea, Liliana; Druskin, Vladimir; Zaslavsky, Mikhail; Mamonov, Alexander V

    2014-01-01

    We propose a novel numerical inversion algorithm for the coefficients of parabolic partial differential equations, based on model reduction. The study is motivated by the application of controlled source electromagnetic exploration, where the unknown is the subsurface electrical resistivity and the data are time resolved surface measurements of the magnetic field. The algorithm presented in this paper considers inversion in one and two dimensions. The reduced model is obtained with rational interpolation in the frequency (Laplace) domain and a rational Krylov subspace projection method. It amounts to a nonlinear mapping from the function space of the unknown resistivity to the small dimensional space of the parameters of the reduced model. We use this mapping as a nonlinear preconditioner for the Gauss–Newton iterative solution of the inverse problem. The advantage of the inversion algorithm is twofold. First, the nonlinear preconditioner resolves most of the nonlinearity of the problem. Thus the iterations are less likely to get stuck in local minima and the convergence is fast. Second, the inversion is computationally efficient because it avoids repeated accurate simulations of the time-domain response. We study the stability of the inversion algorithm for various rational Krylov subspaces, and assess its performance with numerical experiments. (paper)

  1. A model reduction approach to numerical inversion for a parabolic partial differential equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcea, Liliana; Druskin, Vladimir; Mamonov, Alexander V.; Zaslavsky, Mikhail

    2014-12-01

    We propose a novel numerical inversion algorithm for the coefficients of parabolic partial differential equations, based on model reduction. The study is motivated by the application of controlled source electromagnetic exploration, where the unknown is the subsurface electrical resistivity and the data are time resolved surface measurements of the magnetic field. The algorithm presented in this paper considers inversion in one and two dimensions. The reduced model is obtained with rational interpolation in the frequency (Laplace) domain and a rational Krylov subspace projection method. It amounts to a nonlinear mapping from the function space of the unknown resistivity to the small dimensional space of the parameters of the reduced model. We use this mapping as a nonlinear preconditioner for the Gauss-Newton iterative solution of the inverse problem. The advantage of the inversion algorithm is twofold. First, the nonlinear preconditioner resolves most of the nonlinearity of the problem. Thus the iterations are less likely to get stuck in local minima and the convergence is fast. Second, the inversion is computationally efficient because it avoids repeated accurate simulations of the time-domain response. We study the stability of the inversion algorithm for various rational Krylov subspaces, and assess its performance with numerical experiments.

  2. Modeling and optimization aspects of radiation induced grafting of 4-vinylpyridene onto partially fluorinated films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasef, Mohamed Mahmoud; Ahmad Ali, Amgad; Saidi, Hamdani; Ahmad, Arshad

    2014-01-01

    Modeling and optimization aspects of radiation induced grafting (RIG) of 4-vinylpyridine (4-VP) onto partially fluorinated polymers such as poly(ethylene-co-tetrafluoroethene) (ETFE) and poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) films were comparatively investigated using response surface method (RSM). The effects of independent parameters: absorbed dose, monomer concentration, grafting time and reaction temperature on the response, grafting yield (GY) were correlated through two quadratic models. The results of this work confirm that RSM is a reliable tool not only for optimization of the reaction parameters and prediction of GY in RIG processes, but also for the reduction of the number of the experiments, monomer consumption and absorbed dose leading to an improvement of the overall reaction cost. - Highlights: • Comparative study of radiation induced grafting of 4-VP onto PVDF and ETFE films. • Optimization of reaction parameters for both grafting systems was made using RSM. • Single factor design for both grafting systems was used as a reference. • Two quadratic regression models were developed for prediction of grafting yield. • RSM is an effective tool for handling grafting reactions under different conditions

  3. Calculation of the energy of explosives with a partial reaction model. Comparison with cylinder test data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchidrian, Jose A.; Lopez, Lina M. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid - E.T.S.I. Minas, Rios Rosas 21, E-28003 Madrid (Spain)

    2006-02-15

    The energy delivered by explosives is described by means of the useful expansion work along the isentrope of the detonation products. A thermodynamic code (W-DETCOM) is used, in which a partial reaction model has been implemented. In this model, the reacted fraction of the explosive in the detonation state is used as a fitting factor so that the calculated detonation velocity meets the experimental value. Calculations based on such a model have been carried out for a number of commercial explosives of ANFO and emulsion types. The BKW (Becker-Kistiakowsky-Wilson) equation of state is used for the detonation gases with the Sandia parameter set (BKWS). The energy delivered in the expansion (useful work) is calculated, and the values obtained are compared with the Gurney energies from cylinder test data at various expansion ratios. The expansion work values obtained are much more realistic than those from an ideal detonation calculation and, in most cases, the values predicted by the calculation are in good agreement with the experimental ones. (Abstract Copyright [2006], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  4. Modelling the mechanics of partially mineralized collagen fibrils, fibres and tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yanxin; Thomopoulos, Stavros; Chen, Changqing; Birman, Victor; Buehler, Markus J.; Genin, Guy M.

    2014-01-01

    Progressive stiffening of collagen tissue by bioapatite mineral is important physiologically, but the details of this stiffening are uncertain. Unresolved questions about the details of the accommodation of bioapatite within and upon collagen's hierarchical structure have posed a central hurdle, but recent microscopy data resolve several major questions. These data suggest how collagen accommodates bioapatite at the lowest relevant hierarchical level (collagen fibrils), and suggest several possibilities for the progressive accommodation of bioapatite at higher hierarchical length scales (fibres and tissue). We developed approximations for the stiffening of collagen across spatial hierarchies based upon these data, and connected models across hierarchies levels to estimate mineralization-dependent tissue-level mechanics. In the five possible sequences of mineralization studied, percolation of the bioapatite phase proved to be an important determinant of the degree of stiffening by bioapatite. The models were applied to study one important instance of partially mineralized tissue, which occurs at the attachment of tendon to bone. All sequences of mineralization considered reproduced experimental observations of a region of tissue between tendon and bone that is more compliant than either tendon or bone, but the size and nature of this region depended strongly upon the sequence of mineralization. These models and observations have implications for engineered tissue scaffolds at the attachment of tendon to bone, bone development and graded biomimetic attachment of dissimilar hierarchical materials in general. PMID:24352669

  5. Deletion of the App-Runx1 region in mice models human partial monosomy 21

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Arbogast

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Partial monosomy 21 (PM21 is a rare chromosomal abnormality that is characterized by the loss of a variable segment along human chromosome 21 (Hsa21. The clinical phenotypes of this loss are heterogeneous and range from mild alterations to lethal consequences, depending on the affected region of Hsa21. The most common features include intellectual disabilities, craniofacial dysmorphology, short stature, and muscular and cardiac defects. As a complement to human genetic approaches, our team has developed new monosomic mouse models that carry deletions on Hsa21 syntenic regions in order to identify the dosage-sensitive genes that are responsible for the symptoms. We focus here on the Ms5Yah mouse model, in which a 7.7-Mb region has been deleted from the App to Runx1 genes. Ms5Yah mice display high postnatal lethality, with a few surviving individuals showing growth retardation, motor coordination deficits, and spatial learning and memory impairments. Further studies confirmed a gene dosage effect in the Ms5Yah hippocampus, and pinpointed disruptions of pathways related to cell adhesion (involving App, Cntnap5b, Lgals3bp, Mag, Mcam, Npnt, Pcdhb2, Pcdhb3, Pcdhb4, Pcdhb6, Pcdhb7, Pcdhb8, Pcdhb16 and Vwf. Our PM21 mouse model is the first to display morphological abnormalities and behavioural phenotypes similar to those found in affected humans, and it therefore demonstrates the major contribution that the App-Runx1 region has in the pathophysiology of PM21.

  6. Extended partially conserved axial-vector current hypothesis and model-dependent results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez, C.A.

    1977-01-01

    The corrections to Goldberger-Treiman relations for ΔS = 0 and vertical-bardeltaSvertical-bar = 1 β decays (Δ/sub π/and Δ/sub K/, respectively) are estimated from a Veneziano-type model for three-point functions. The effect of unitarizing the model is also discussed, and it turns out that Δ/sub π/and Δ/sub K/ are almost insensitive to a variation in the widths of the pseudoscalar-meson daughters. Moreover, the predictions for Δ/sub π/and Δ/sub K/ are in close agreement with experiment. Finally, on-mass-shell extrapolation factors for chiral anomalies in eta → γγ and eta → π + π - γ are also derived, and agreement with experiment is found without the need for invoking eta-eta' mixing. In summary, the model discussed here seems to be a suitable implementation of the recently proposed extended partially conserved axial-vector current hypothesis

  7. On the modelling and partial-load control of variable-speed wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, P [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). School of Electrical and Computer Engineering

    1996-12-31

    The focus of this thesis is on modelling and variable-speed control of wind turbines. A physical model structure including the fundamental drive-train mode is derived and validated by system-identification experiments on a full-scale wind turbine. The resulting, parametrized model has been used as a basis for an evaluation of controllers for partial-load operation, validated by non-linear simulations. This evaluation, including several controller concepts, verifies that a sophisticated controller becomes necessary, when stretching the limits in power-loss minimization. This control strategy also demands the sampling frequency to be pushed to a high level. As a consequence, the angular-position measurements become time correlated and, in the limit, periodic. It is shown in the thesis how the resulting, operating-point-dependent effects on the measurement errors influence the estimation quality, using a stationary Kalman filter as an example. A gain-scheduling estimation approach is shown to improve the performance. 39 refs, 63 figs, 2 tabs

  8. Anode partial flooding modelling of proton exchange membrane fuel cells: Model development and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xing, Lei; Du, Shangfeng; Chen, Rui; Mamlouk, Mohamed; Scott, Keith

    2016-01-01

    A two-dimensional along-the-channel CFD (computational fluid dynamic) model, coupled with a two-phase flow model of liquid water and gas transport for a PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cell is described. The model considers non-isothermal operation and thus the non-uniform temperature distribution in the cell structure. Water phase-transfer between the vapour, liquid water and dissolved phase is modelled with the combinational transport mechanism through the membrane. Liquid water saturation is simulated inside the electrodes and channels at both the anode and cathode sides. Three types of models are compared for the HOR (hydrogen oxidation reaction) and ORR (oxygen reduction reaction) in catalyst layers, including Butler–Volmer (B–V), liquid water saturation corrected B–V and agglomerate mechanisms. Temperature changes in MEA (membrane electrode assembly) and channels due to electrochemical reaction, ohmic resistance and water phase-transfer are analysed as a function of current density. Nonlinear relations of liquid water saturations with respect to current densities at both the anode and cathode are regressed. At low and high current densities, liquid water saturation at the anode linearly increases as a consequence of the linear increase of liquid water saturation at the cathode. In contrast, exponential relation is found to be more accurate at medium current densities. - Highlights: • A fully coupled 2D, along-the-channel, two-phase flow, non-isothermal, CFD model is developed. • Temperature rise due to electrochemical reactions, ohmic resistance and water phase-transfer is analysed. • Mathematical expressions of liquid water saturation against current density at anode and cathode are regressed. • Relationship between the liquid water saturation at anode and cathode is built.

  9. Changes in oxygen partial pressure of brain tissue in an animal model of obstructive apnea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torres Marta

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cognitive impairment is one of the main consequences of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA and is usually attributed in part to the oxidative stress caused by intermittent hypoxia in cerebral tissues. The presence of oxygen-reactive species in the brain tissue should be produced by the deoxygenation-reoxygenation cycles which occur at tissue level during recurrent apneic events. However, how changes in arterial blood oxygen saturation (SpO2 during repetitive apneas translate into oxygen partial pressure (PtO2 in brain tissue has not been studied. The objective of this study was to assess whether brain tissue is partially protected from intermittently occurring interruption of O2 supply during recurrent swings in arterial SpO2 in an animal model of OSA. Methods Twenty-four male Sprague-Dawley rats (300-350 g were used. Sixteen rats were anesthetized and non-invasively subjected to recurrent obstructive apneas: 60 apneas/h, 15 s each, for 1 h. A control group of 8 rats was instrumented but not subjected to obstructive apneas. PtO2 in the cerebral cortex was measured using a fast-response oxygen microelectrode. SpO2 was measured by pulse oximetry. The time dependence of arterial SpO2 and brain tissue PtO2 was carried out by Friedman repeated measures ANOVA. Results Arterial SpO2 showed a stable periodic pattern (no significant changes in maximum [95.5 ± 0.5%; m ± SE] and minimum values [83.9 ± 1.3%]. By contrast, brain tissue PtO2 exhibited a different pattern from that of arterial SpO2. The minimum cerebral cortex PtO2 computed during the first apnea (29.6 ± 2.4 mmHg was significantly lower than baseline PtO2 (39.7 ± 2.9 mmHg; p = 0.011. In contrast to SpO2, the minimum and maximum values of PtO2 gradually increased (p 2 were significantly greater relative to baseline and the first apnea dip, respectively. Conclusions These data suggest that the cerebral cortex is partially protected from intermittently occurring interruption of

  10. Joint replenishment and credit policies under two levels of trade credit financing when demand and bad-debt loss depends upon credit period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggarawal K.K.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In practice, a firm usually receives trade credit financing from its supplier on the purchase of inventory. Similarly, in order to meet competition and generate credit sales over and above cash sales, the firm also gives credit period to their customers. However, the decision of granting credit period may have a disintegrating effect on cash sales apart from generating new credit sales because some of the cash customers may switch to credit purchase. In addition, despite of the best credit granting policies and collection practices, the firm may incurs some amount of bad debt losses because a certain fraction of buyers will undoubtedly be unable to pay off their debt obligations and become bad debt loss to the firm. In this paper, using discounted cash flow (DCF approach, a mathematical model is developed to jointly determine optimal inventory and credit policies under two levels of trade credit financing when demand and bad-debt losses are dependent on credit period. The objective of the model is to maximize the present value of firm’s net profit per unit time by jointly optimizing the replenishment interval and date-terms credit period. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and the results are discussed.

  11. An Amorphous Network Model for Capillary Flow and Dispersion in a Partially Saturated Porous Medium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, C. S.; Rockhold, M. L.

    2013-12-01

    Network models of capillary flow are commonly used to represent conduction of fluids at pore scales. Typically, a flow system is described by a regular geometric lattice of interconnected tubes. Tubes constitute the pore throats, while connection junctions (nodes) are pore bodies. Such conceptualization of the geometry, however, is questionable for the pore scale, where irregularity clearly prevails, although prior published models using a regular lattice have demonstrated successful descriptions of the flow in the bulk medium. Here a network is allowed to be amorphous, and is not subject to any particular lattice structure. Few network flow models have treated partially saturated or even multiphase conditions. The research trend is toward using capillary tubes with triangular or square cross sections that have corners and always retain some fluid by capillarity when drained. In contrast, this model uses only circular capillaries, whose filled state is controlled by a capillary pressure rule for the junctions. The rule determines which capillary participate in the flow under an imposed matric potential gradient during steady flow conditions. Poiseuille's Law and Laplace equation are used to describe flow and water retention in the capillary units of the model. A modified conjugate gradient solution for steady flow that tracks which capillary in an amorphous network contribute to fluid conduction was devised for partially saturated conditions. The model thus retains the features of classical capillary models for determining hydraulic flow properties under unsaturated conditions based on distribution of non-interacting tubes, but now accounts for flow exchange at junctions. Continuity of the flow balance at every junction is solved simultaneously. The effective water retention relationship and unsaturated permeability are evaluated for an extensive enough network to represent a small bulk sample of porous medium. The model is applied for both a hypothetically

  12. Evaluation of Partial Transection versus Synovial Debridement of the ACL as Novel Canine Models for Management of ACL Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozynski, Chantelle C; Kuroki, Keiichi; Stannard, James P; Smith, Patrick A; Stoker, Aaron M; Cook, Cristi R; Cook, James L

    2015-10-01

    A major hurdle in investigating important clinical questions in knee ligament treatment is a lack of valid translational animal models. This study characterizes the effects of partial transection versus synovial debridement of the anterior (cranial) cruciate ligament (ACL) in dogs. A total of 27 adult purpose-bred research hounds underwent surgery and were assessed over the following 8 weeks. Dogs were randomized into the following three ACL status groups: sham control (n = 9), intact ACL with synovial debridement (exposed ACL) (n = 9), and partial transection of the ACL (partial tear ACL) (n = 9). Dogs in the exposed ACL group and partial tear ACL group had significantly (p < 0.05) more severe lameness, pain, effusion, reduced function, and reduced comfortable range of motion compared with controls, with the partial tear ACL group being most severely affected. More severe ACL and whole-joint pathology, and radiographic scores for osteoarthritis were present in the partial tear ACL group compared with exposed and/or sham control group. On the basis of these findings, biologic components of ACL injury (exposed ACL) played a role in whole-joint inflammation, but the clinical and pathological effects were more severe when both biologic and biomechanical components were present (i.e., partial tear ACL). These novel canine models were successfully developed to evaluate partial transection versus synovial debridement of the ACL and these models will be used to evaluate treatment options for acute management of ACL injuries. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  13. Murine partial-body radiation exposure model for biodosimetry studies - Preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blakely, William F., E-mail: blakely@afrri.usuhs.mil [Uniformed Services University, Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute, Scientific Research Department, 8901 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20889-5603 (United States); Sandgren, David J., E-mail: Sandgren@afrri.usuhs.mil [Uniformed Services University, Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute, Scientific Research Department, 8901 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20889-5603 (United States); Nagy, Vitaly, E-mail: nagy@afrri.usuhs.mil [Uniformed Services University, Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute, Scientific Research Department, 8901 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20889-5603 (United States); Kim, Sung-Yop, E-mail: kimy@afrri.usuhs.mil [Uniformed Services University, Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute, Scientific Research Department, 8901 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20889-5603 (United States); Ossetrova, Natalia I., E-mail: ossetrova@afrri.usuhs.mil [Uniformed Services University, Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute, Scientific Research Department, 8901 Wisconsin Avenue, Bethesda, MD 20889-5603 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    The objective of the present study was to establish a murine partial-body radiation exposure model for studies supporting the identification and validation of novel biological dosimetry diagnostic assays. A lead shielding - Plexiglas irradiation apparatus with cutouts to permit irradiation of single-mouse-holder constrained CD2F1 male mice to total-body (3/3), mid- and lower-body (2/3), mid-body only (1/3), and 100% lead shielding sham-treated (0 Gy) controls (0/3) with a 250-kVp X-ray source (dose: 6 Gy, dose rate: 0.50 Gy min{sup -1}) was used. Doses and dose uniformity were measured using alanine - electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and ionization chambers. Dosimetry mapping results showed {approx}2 and {approx}12% non-uniformity in the radiation fields for the two smaller (1/3, 2/3) and one larger (3/3) fields, respectively. Hematology results showed no marked differences in neutrophil and platelet counts 1 and 2 days (d) after irradiation. The lymphocyte counts, as expected, demonstrate a progressive decline below baseline levels 1 and 2 d after irradiation with increasing fraction of the body exposed, while the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratios show the inverse effect, with a progressive increase with the fraction of body exposed. The bone marrow biomarker, Flt3 ligand, demonstrated a progressive increase in values with increasing fraction of the body exposed; the 2 d response was enhanced compared to 1 d. The radioresponse 1 d after irradiation for the acute phase reactant protein biomarker, serum amyloid A (SAA) that is synthesized by the liver, was significantly influenced depending on whether the mouse head was in the radiation field. Use of multiple biomarkers based on hematology and proteomic targets provide an enhancement in early-phase partial-body radiation exposure assessment.

  14. Sub-Model Partial Least Squares for Improved Accuracy in Quantitative Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R. B.; Clegg, S. M.; Frydenvang, J.

    2015-12-01

    One of the primary challenges faced by the ChemCam instrument on the Curiosity Mars rover is developing a regression model that can accurately predict the composition of the wide range of target types encountered (basalts, calcium sulfate, feldspar, oxides, etc.). The original calibration used 69 rock standards to train a partial least squares (PLS) model for each major element. By expanding the suite of calibration samples to >400 targets spanning a wider range of compositions, the accuracy of the model was improved, but some targets with "extreme" compositions (e.g. pure minerals) were still poorly predicted. We have therefore developed a simple method, referred to as "submodel PLS", to improve the performance of PLS across a wide range of target compositions. In addition to generating a "full" (0-100 wt.%) PLS model for the element of interest, we also generate several overlapping submodels (e.g. for SiO2, we generate "low" (0-50 wt.%), "mid" (30-70 wt.%), and "high" (60-100 wt.%) models). The submodels are generally more accurate than the "full" model for samples within their range because they are able to adjust for matrix effects that are specific to that range. To predict the composition of an unknown target, we first predict the composition with the submodels and the "full" model. Then, based on the predicted composition from the "full" model, the appropriate submodel prediction can be used (e.g. if the full model predicts a low composition, use the "low" model result, which is likely to be more accurate). For samples with "full" predictions that occur in a region of overlap between submodels, the submodel predictions are "blended" using a simple linear weighted sum. The submodel PLS method shows improvements in most of the major elements predicted by ChemCam and reduces the occurrence of negative predictions for low wt.% targets. Submodel PLS is currently being used in conjunction with ICA regression for the major element compositions of ChemCam data.

  15. Thermodynamically consistent modeling and simulation of multi-component two-phase flow with partial miscibility

    KAUST Repository

    Kou, Jisheng

    2017-12-09

    A general diffuse interface model with a realistic equation of state (e.g. Peng-Robinson equation of state) is proposed to describe the multi-component two-phase fluid flow based on the principles of the NVT-based framework which is an attractive alternative recently over the NPT-based framework to model the realistic fluids. The proposed model uses the Helmholtz free energy rather than Gibbs free energy in the NPT-based framework. Different from the classical routines, we combine the first law of thermodynamics and related thermodynamical relations to derive the entropy balance equation, and then we derive a transport equation of the Helmholtz free energy density. Furthermore, by using the second law of thermodynamics, we derive a set of unified equations for both interfaces and bulk phases that can describe the partial miscibility of multiple fluids. A relation between the pressure gradient and chemical potential gradients is established, and this relation leads to a new formulation of the momentum balance equation, which demonstrates that chemical potential gradients become the primary driving force of fluid motion. Moreover, we prove that the proposed model satisfies the total (free) energy dissipation with time. For numerical simulation of the proposed model, the key difficulties result from the strong nonlinearity of Helmholtz free energy density and tight coupling relations between molar densities and velocity. To resolve these problems, we propose a novel convex-concave splitting of Helmholtz free energy density and deal well with the coupling relations between molar densities and velocity through very careful physical observations with a mathematical rigor. We prove that the proposed numerical scheme can preserve the discrete (free) energy dissipation. Numerical tests are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Modelling and Vibration Control of Beams with Partially Debonded Active Constrained Layer Damping Patch

    Science.gov (United States)

    SUN, D.; TONG, L.

    2002-05-01

    A detailed model for the beams with partially debonded active constraining damping (ACLD) treatment is presented. In this model, the transverse displacement of the constraining layer is considered to be non-identical to that of the host structure. In the perfect bonding region, the viscoelastic core is modelled to carry both peel and shear stresses, while in the debonding area, it is assumed that no peel and shear stresses be transferred between the host beam and the constraining layer. The adhesive layer between the piezoelectric sensor and the host beam is also considered in this model. In active control, the positive position feedback control is employed to control the first mode of the beam. Based on this model, the incompatibility of the transverse displacements of the active constraining layer and the host beam is investigated. The passive and active damping behaviors of the ACLD patch with different thicknesses, locations and lengths are examined. Moreover, the effects of debonding of the damping layer on both passive and active control are examined via a simulation example. The results show that the incompatibility of the transverse displacements is remarkable in the regions near the ends of the ACLD patch especially for the high order vibration modes. It is found that a thinner damping layer may lead to larger shear strain and consequently results in a larger passive and active damping. In addition to the thickness of the damping layer, its length and location are also key factors to the hybrid control. The numerical results unveil that edge debonding can lead to a reduction of both passive and active damping, and the hybrid damping may be more sensitive to the debonding of the damping layer than the passive damping.

  17. Modelling the cooling and partial dismantling of the Febex in-situ test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, M.; Gens, A.; Guimaraes, L.

    2010-01-01

    predictions from analysis. The operation related to the partial dismantling included the demolition of the concrete plug and the removal of the sections of the barrier corresponding to 'Heater 1'. The objective was to carry out the partial dismantling causing minimum disturbance to the sections of test corresponding to the second heater, which remained in operation at all times. A new concrete plug was constructed immediately after excavation. A detailed description of the work performed during the partial dismantling of the in-situ test can be found in Huertas et al. (2006). This contribution focuses on the modelling of the cooling and partly dismantling of the FEBEX in-situ experiment. The finite element computer program CODE-BRIGHT has been used for the numerical analysis. CODE-BRIGHT is a program developed to handle coupled Thermo-Hydro- Mechanical and Geochemical problems in geological media. It has been observed a very good performance of the model to reproduce the evolution of the main THM variables of the tests, during the cooling of the Heater No.1, concrete demolition and excavation of the clay barrier. It is worth mentioning that these are a kind of 'blind model predictions', as the constitutive laws and model parameters adopted at the beginning of the heating were used in this analysis. (authors)

  18. Global and local emission impact assessment of distributed cogeneration systems with partial-load models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancarella, Pierluigi; Chicco, Gianfranco

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale distributed cogeneration technologies represent a key resource to increase generation efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with respect to conventional separate production means. However, the diffusion of distributed cogeneration within urban areas, where air quality standards are quite stringent, brings about environmental concerns on a local level. In addition, partial-load emission worsening is often overlooked, which could lead to biased evaluations of the energy system environmental performance. In this paper, a comprehensive emission assessment framework suitable for addressing distributed cogeneration systems is formulated. Local and global emission impact models are presented to identify upper and lower boundary values of the environmental pressure from pollutants that would be emitted from reference technologies, to be compared to the actual emissions from distributed cogeneration. This provides synthetic information on the relative environmental impact from small-scale CHP sources, useful for general indicative and non-site-specific studies. The emission models are formulated according to an electrical output-based emission factor approach, through which off-design operation and relevant performance are easily accounted for. In particular, in order to address the issues that could arise under off-design operation, an equivalent load model is incorporated within the proposed framework, by exploiting the duration curve of the cogenerator loading and the emissions associated to each loading level. In this way, it is possible to quantify the contribution to the emissions from cogeneration systems that might operate at partial loads for a significant portion of their operation time, as for instance in load-tracking applications. Suitability of the proposed methodology is discussed with respect to hazardous air pollutants such as NO x and CO, as well as to greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . Two case study applications based on the emission

  19. Behavior and Three-Dimensional Finite Element Modeling of Circular Concrete Columns Partially Wrapped with FRP Strips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjie Zeng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP jacketing/wrapping has become an attractive strengthening technique for concrete columns. Wrapping an existing concrete column with continuous FRP jackets with the fiber in the jacket being oriented in the hoop direction is referred to as FRP full wrapping strengthening technique. In practice, however, strengthening concrete columns with vertically discontinuous FRP strips is also favored and this technique is referred to as FRP partial wrapping strengthening technique. Existing research has demonstrated that FRP partial wrapping strengthening technique is a promising and economical alternative to the FRP full wrapping strengthening technique. Although extensive experimental investigations have hitherto been conducted on partially FRP-confined concrete columns, the confinement mechanics of confined concrete in partially FRP-confined circular columns remains unclear. In this paper, an experimental program consisting of fifteen column specimens was conducted and the test results were presented. A reliable three-dimensional (3D finite element (FE approach for modeling of partially FRP-confined circular columns was established. In the proposed FE approach, an accurate plastic-damage model for concrete under multiaxial compression is employed. The accuracy of the proposed FE approach was verified by comparisons between the numerical results and the test results. Numerical results from the verified FE approach were then presented to gain an improved understanding of the behavior of confined concrete in partially FRP-confined concrete columns.

  20. Exploring the chemical kinetics of partially oxidized intermediates by combining experiments, theory, and kinetic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyermann, Karlheinz; Mauß, Fabian; Olzmann, Matthias; Welz, Oliver; Zeuch, Thomas

    2017-07-19

    Partially oxidized intermediates play a central role in combustion and atmospheric chemistry. In this perspective, we focus on the chemical kinetics of alkoxy radicals, peroxy radicals, and Criegee intermediates, which are key species in both combustion and atmospheric environments. These reactive intermediates feature a broad spectrum of chemical diversity. Their reactivity is central to our understanding of how volatile organic compounds are degraded in the atmosphere and converted into secondary organic aerosol. Moreover, they sensitively determine ignition timing in internal combustion engines. The intention of this perspective article is to provide the reader with information about the general mechanisms of reactions initiated by addition of atomic and molecular oxygen to alkyl radicals and ozone to alkenes. We will focus on critical branching points in the subsequent reaction mechanisms and discuss them from a consistent point of view. As a first example of our integrated approach, we will show how experiment, theory, and kinetic modeling have been successfully combined in the first infrared detection of Criegee intermediates during the gas phase ozonolysis. As a second example, we will examine the ignition timing of n-heptane/air mixtures at low and intermediate temperatures. Here, we present a reduced, fuel size independent kinetic model of the complex chemistry initiated by peroxy radicals that has been successfully applied to simulate standard n-heptane combustion experiments.

  1. An ontology-driven, case-based clinical decision support model for removable partial denture design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qingxiao; Wu, Ji; Li, Shusen; Lyu, Peijun; Wang, Yong; Li, Miao

    2016-06-01

    We present the initial work toward developing a clinical decision support model for specific design of removable partial dentures (RPDs) in dentistry. We developed an ontological paradigm to represent knowledge of a patient’s oral conditions and denture component parts. During the case-based reasoning process, a cosine similarity algorithm was applied to calculate similarity values between input patients and standard ontology cases. A group of designs from the most similar cases were output as the final results. To evaluate this model, the output designs of RPDs for 104 randomly selected patients were compared with those selected by professionals. An area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) was created by plotting true-positive rates against the false-positive rate at various threshold settings. The precision at position 5 of the retrieved cases was 0.67 and at the top of the curve it was 0.96, both of which are very high. The mean average of precision (MAP) was 0.61 and the normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG) was 0.74 both of which confirmed the efficient performance of our model. All the metrics demonstrated the efficiency of our model. This methodology merits further research development to match clinical applications for designing RPDs. This paper is organized as follows. After the introduction and description of the basis for the paper, the evaluation and results are presented in Section 2. Section 3 provides a discussion of the methodology and results. Section 4 describes the details of the ontology, similarity algorithm, and application.

  2. Mathematical programming model for heat exchanger design through optimization of partial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Viviani C.; Ravagnani, Mauro A.S.S.; Caballero, José A.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Rigorous design of shell-and-tube heat exchangers according to TEMA standards. • Division of the problem into sets of equations that are easier to solve. • Selected heuristic objective functions based on the physical behavior of the problem. • Sequential optimization approach to avoid solutions stuck in local minimum. • The results obtained with this model improved the values reported in the literature. - Abstract: Mathematical programming can be used for the optimal design of shell-and-tube heat exchangers (STHEs). This paper proposes a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model for the design of STHEs, following rigorously the standards of the Tubular Exchanger Manufacturers Association (TEMA). Bell–Delaware Method is used for the shell-side calculations. This approach produces a large and non-convex model that cannot be solved to global optimality with the current state of the art solvers. Notwithstanding, it is proposed to perform a sequential optimization approach of partial objective targets through the division of the problem into sets of related equations that are easier to solve. For each one of these problems a heuristic objective function is selected based on the physical behavior of the problem. The global optimal solution of the original problem cannot be ensured even in the case in which each of the sub-problems is solved to global optimality, but at least a very good solution is always guaranteed. Three cases extracted from the literature were studied. The results showed that in all cases the values obtained using the proposed MINLP model containing multiple objective functions improved the values presented in the literature

  3. Prediction of aged red wine aroma properties from aroma chemical composition. Partial least squares regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aznar, Margarita; López, Ricardo; Cacho, Juan; Ferreira, Vicente

    2003-04-23

    Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models able to predict some of the wine aroma nuances from its chemical composition have been developed. The aromatic sensory characteristics of 57 Spanish aged red wines were determined by 51 experts from the wine industry. The individual descriptions given by the experts were recorded, and the frequency with which a sensory term was used to define a given wine was taken as a measurement of its intensity. The aromatic chemical composition of the wines was determined by already published gas chromatography (GC)-flame ionization detector and GC-mass spectrometry methods. In the whole, 69 odorants were analyzed. Both matrixes, the sensory and chemical data, were simplified by grouping and rearranging correlated sensory terms or chemical compounds and by the exclusion of secondary aroma terms or of weak aroma chemicals. Finally, models were developed for 18 sensory terms and 27 chemicals or groups of chemicals. Satisfactory models, explaining more than 45% of the original variance, could be found for nine of the most important sensory terms (wood-vanillin-cinnamon, animal-leather-phenolic, toasted-coffee, old wood-reduction, vegetal-pepper, raisin-flowery, sweet-candy-cacao, fruity, and berry fruit). For this set of terms, the correlation coefficients between the measured and predicted Y (determined by cross-validation) ranged from 0.62 to 0.81. Models confirmed the existence of complex multivariate relationships between chemicals and odors. In general, pleasant descriptors were positively correlated to chemicals with pleasant aroma, such as vanillin, beta damascenone, or (E)-beta-methyl-gamma-octalactone, and negatively correlated to compounds showing less favorable odor properties, such as 4-ethyl and vinyl phenols, 3-(methylthio)-1-propanol, or phenylacetaldehyde.

  4. Models for the Configuration and Integrity of Partially Oxidized Fuel Rod Cladding at High Temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siefken, L.J.

    1999-01-01

    Models were designed to resolve deficiencies in the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 calculations of the configuration and integrity of hot, partially oxidized cladding. These models are expected to improve the calculations of several important aspects of fuel rod behavior. First, an improved mapping was established from a compilation of PIE results from severe fuel damage tests of the configuration of melted metallic cladding that is retained by an oxide layer. The improved mapping accounts for the relocation of melted cladding in the circumferential direction. Then, rules based on PIE results were established for calculating the effect of cladding that has relocated from above on the oxidation and integrity of the lower intact cladding upon which it solidifies. Next, three different methods were identified for calculating the extent of dissolution of the oxidic part of the cladding due to its contact with the metallic part. The extent of dissolution effects the stress and thus the integrity of the oxidic part of the cladding. Then, an empirical equation was presented for calculating the stress in the oxidic part of the cladding and evaluating its integrity based on this calculated stress. This empirical equation replaces the current criterion for loss of integrity which is based on temperature and extent of oxidation. Finally, a new rule based on theoretical and experimental results was established for identifying the regions of a fuel rod with oxidation of both the inside and outside surfaces of the cladding. The implementation of these models is expected to eliminate the tendency of the SCDAP/RELAP5 code to overpredict the extent of oxidation of the upper part of fuel rods and to underpredict the extent of oxidation of the lower part of fuel rods and the part with a high concentration of relocated material. This report is a revision and reissue of the report entitled, Improvements in Modeling of Cladding Oxidation and Meltdown

  5. In silico ordinary differential equation/partial differential equation hemodialysis model estimates methadone removal during dialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, Oscar A; Schiesser, William E; Fudin, Jeffrey; Pham, Thien C; Bettinger, Jeffrey J; Mathew, Roy O; Daly, Annemarie L

    2015-01-01

    Background There is a need to have a model to study methadone’s losses during hemodialysis to provide informed methadone dose recommendations for the practitioner. Aim To build a one-dimensional (1-D), hollow-fiber geometry, ordinary differential equation (ODE) and partial differential equation (PDE) countercurrent hemodialyzer model (ODE/PDE model). Methodology We conducted a cross-sectional study in silico that evaluated eleven hemodialysis patients. Patients received a ceiling dose of methadone hydrochloride 30 mg/day. Outcome measures included: the total amount of methadone removed during dialysis; methadone’s overall intradialytic mass transfer rate coefficient, km; and, methadone’s removal rate, jME. Each metric was measured at dialysate flow rates of 250 mL/min and 800 mL/min. Results The ODE/PDE model revealed a significant increase in the change of methadone’s mass transfer with increased dialysate flow rate, %Δkm=18.56, P=0.02, N=11. The total amount of methadone mass transferred across the dialyzer membrane with high dialysate flow rate significantly increased (0.042±0.016 versus 0.052±0.019 mg/kg, P=0.02, N=11). This was accompanied by a small significant increase in methadone’s mass transfer rate (0.113±0.002 versus 0.014±0.002 mg/kg/h, P=0.02, N=11). The ODE/PDE model accurately predicted methadone’s removal during dialysis. The absolute value of the prediction errors for methadone’s extraction and throughput were less than 2%. Conclusion ODE/PDE modeling of methadone’s hemodialysis is a new approach to study methadone’s removal, in particular, and opioid removal, in general, in patients with end-stage renal disease on hemodialysis. ODE/PDE modeling accurately quantified the fundamental phenomena of methadone’s mass transfer during hemodialysis. This methodology may lead to development of optimally designed intradialytic opioid treatment protocols, and allow dynamic monitoring of outflow plasma opioid concentrations for model

  6. In silico ordinary differential equation/partial differential equation hemodialysis model estimates methadone removal during dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, Oscar A; Schiesser, William E; Fudin, Jeffrey; Pham, Thien C; Bettinger, Jeffrey J; Mathew, Roy O; Daly, Annemarie L

    2015-01-01

    There is a need to have a model to study methadone's losses during hemodialysis to provide informed methadone dose recommendations for the practitioner. To build a one-dimensional (1-D), hollow-fiber geometry, ordinary differential equation (ODE) and partial differential equation (PDE) countercurrent hemodialyzer model (ODE/PDE model). We conducted a cross-sectional study in silico that evaluated eleven hemodialysis patients. Patients received a ceiling dose of methadone hydrochloride 30 mg/day. Outcome measures included: the total amount of methadone removed during dialysis; methadone's overall intradialytic mass transfer rate coefficient, km ; and, methadone's removal rate, j ME. Each metric was measured at dialysate flow rates of 250 mL/min and 800 mL/min. The ODE/PDE model revealed a significant increase in the change of methadone's mass transfer with increased dialysate flow rate, %Δkm =18.56, P=0.02, N=11. The total amount of methadone mass transferred across the dialyzer membrane with high dialysate flow rate significantly increased (0.042±0.016 versus 0.052±0.019 mg/kg, P=0.02, N=11). This was accompanied by a small significant increase in methadone's mass transfer rate (0.113±0.002 versus 0.014±0.002 mg/kg/h, P=0.02, N=11). The ODE/PDE model accurately predicted methadone's removal during dialysis. The absolute value of the prediction errors for methadone's extraction and throughput were less than 2%. ODE/PDE modeling of methadone's hemodialysis is a new approach to study methadone's removal, in particular, and opioid removal, in general, in patients with end-stage renal disease on hemodialysis. ODE/PDE modeling accurately quantified the fundamental phenomena of methadone's mass transfer during hemodialysis. This methodology may lead to development of optimally designed intradialytic opioid treatment protocols, and allow dynamic monitoring of outflow plasma opioid concentrations for model predictive control during dialysis in humans.

  7. KARAKTERISTIK PERUSAHAAN DAN CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erma Wahdani Permanasari

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of characteristic of firm to the level of creditrisk. Characteristics of the firm is proxied by size, leverage, spread ownership, net profit margin,return on equity, industry type and scope of the company’s operations. Measurement of level creditrisk uses PT Pefindo bond rating. Annual reports of listed companies in PT Pefindo and IndonesiaStock Exchange (IDX 2010-2011 are collected based on purposive sampling techniques. Thepopulation is 238 companies. Sample used amounted to 84 companies. The analysis model usedin this study is multiple linear regression. Results of this study indicate that the level of corporatecredit risk in Indonesia is high because it is below the 50.00%. The test result of multiple regressionshowed that firm of characteristic affect the level of credit risk. Firm characteristics that affectthe level of credit risk are size, leverage, dispersion of ownership, net profit margin and returnon equity.

  8. Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating

  9. Partial inertia induces additional phase transition in the majority vote model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harunari, Pedro E; de Oliveira, M M; Fiore, C E

    2017-10-01

    Explosive (i.e., discontinuous) transitions have aroused great interest by manifesting in distinct systems, such as synchronization in coupled oscillators, percolation regime, absorbing phase transitions, and more recently, the majority-vote model with inertia. In the latter, the model rules are slightly modified by the inclusion of a term depending on the local spin (an inertial term). In such a case, Chen et al. [Phys Rev. E 95, 042304 (2017)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.95.042304] have found that relevant inertia changes the nature of the phase transition in complex networks, from continuous to discontinuous. Here we give a further step by embedding inertia only in vertices with degree larger than a threshold value 〈k〉k^{*}, 〈k〉 being the mean system degree and k^{*} the fraction restriction. Our results, from mean-field analysis and extensive numerical simulations, reveal that an explosive transition is presented in both homogeneous and heterogeneous structures for small and intermediate k^{*}'s. Otherwise, a large restriction can sustain a discontinuous transition only in the heterogeneous case. This shares some similarities with recent results for the Kuramoto model [Phys. Rev. E 91, 022818 (2015)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.91.022818]. Surprisingly, intermediate restriction and large inertia are responsible for the emergence of an extra phase, in which the system is partially synchronized and the classification of phase transition depends on the inertia and the lattice topology. In this case, the system exhibits two phase transitions.

  10. Deletion of the App-Runx1 region in mice models human partial monosomy 21.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbogast, Thomas; Raveau, Matthieu; Chevalier, Claire; Nalesso, Valérie; Dembele, Doulaye; Jacobs, Hugues; Wendling, Olivia; Roux, Michel; Duchon, Arnaud; Herault, Yann

    2015-06-01

    Partial monosomy 21 (PM21) is a rare chromosomal abnormality that is characterized by the loss of a variable segment along human chromosome 21 (Hsa21). The clinical phenotypes of this loss are heterogeneous and range from mild alterations to lethal consequences, depending on the affected region of Hsa21. The most common features include intellectual disabilities, craniofacial dysmorphology, short stature, and muscular and cardiac defects. As a complement to human genetic approaches, our team has developed new monosomic mouse models that carry deletions on Hsa21 syntenic regions in order to identify the dosage-sensitive genes that are responsible for the symptoms. We focus here on the Ms5Yah mouse model, in which a 7.7-Mb region has been deleted from the App to Runx1 genes. Ms5Yah mice display high postnatal lethality, with a few surviving individuals showing growth retardation, motor coordination deficits, and spatial learning and memory impairments. Further studies confirmed a gene dosage effect in the Ms5Yah hippocampus, and pinpointed disruptions of pathways related to cell adhesion (involving App, Cntnap5b, Lgals3bp, Mag, Mcam, Npnt, Pcdhb2, Pcdhb3, Pcdhb4, Pcdhb6, Pcdhb7, Pcdhb8, Pcdhb16 and Vwf). Our PM21 mouse model is the first to display morphological abnormalities and behavioural phenotypes similar to those found in affected humans, and it therefore demonstrates the major contribution that the App-Runx1 region has in the pathophysiology of PM21. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  11. CREDIT Performance Indicator Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Anne Kathrine; Bertelsen, Niels Haldor; Haugbølle, Kim

    2010-01-01

    During the past two years the Nordic Baltic research project CREDIT (Construction and Real Estate – Developing Indicators for Transparency) has worked with the aim to improve transparency of value creation in building and real estate. One of the central deliverables of the CREDIT project was a fr......During the past two years the Nordic Baltic research project CREDIT (Construction and Real Estate – Developing Indicators for Transparency) has worked with the aim to improve transparency of value creation in building and real estate. One of the central deliverables of the CREDIT project...... was a framework of indicators relevant in building and real estate and applicable in the Nordic and Baltic countries as well as a proposal for a set of key indicators. The study resulting in CREDIT Performance Indicator Framework has been based on 28 case studies of evaluation practises in the building and real...... estate sector each addressing three interlinked levels: building/ projects level, company or enterprise level and benchmarking system level. Additionally it has been based on dialogue with researchers and professional organisation, international research and standardisation work and national building...

  12. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  13. Apparent-contact-angle model at partial wetting and evaporation: impact of surface forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janeček, V; Nikolayev, V S

    2013-01-01

    This theoretical and numerical study deals with evaporation of a fluid wedge in contact with its pure vapor. The model describes a regime where the continuous wetting film is absent and the actual line of the triple gas-liquid-solid contact appears. A constant temperature higher than the saturation temperature is imposed at the solid substrate. The fluid flow is solved in the lubrication approximation. The introduction of the surface forces in the case of the partial wetting is discussed. The apparent contact angle (the gas-liquid interface slope far from the contact line) is studied numerically as a function of the substrate superheating, contact line velocity, and parameters related to the solid-fluid interaction (Young and microscopic contact angles, Hamaker constant, etc.). The dependence of the apparent contact angle on the substrate temperature is in agreement with existing approaches. For water, the apparent contact angle may be 20° larger than the Young contact angle for 1 K superheating. The effect of the surface forces on the apparent contact angle is found to be weak.

  14. A consistent model for the equilibrium thermodynamic functions of partially ionized flibe plasma with Coulomb corrections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaghloul, Mofreh R.

    2003-01-01

    Flibe (2LiF-BeF2) is a molten salt that has been chosen as the coolant and breeding material in many design studies of the inertial confinement fusion (ICF) chamber. Flibe plasmas are to be generated in the ICF chamber in a wide range of temperatures and densities. These plasmas are more complex than the plasma of any single chemical species. Nevertheless, the composition and thermodynamic properties of the resulting flibe plasmas are needed for the gas dynamics calculations and the determination of other design parameters in the ICF chamber. In this paper, a simple consistent model for determining the detailed plasma composition and thermodynamic functions of high-temperature, fully dissociated and partially ionized flibe gas is presented and used to calculate different thermodynamic properties of interest to fusion applications. The computed properties include the average ionization state; kinetic pressure; internal energy; specific heats; adiabatic exponent, as well as the sound speed. The presented results are computed under the assumptions of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) and electro-neutrality. A criterion for the validity of the LTE assumption is presented and applied to the computed results. Other attempts in the literature are assessed with their implied inaccuracies pointed out and discussed

  15. Robust estimation for partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, LiPing; Li, RunZe; Cui, HengJian

    2013-10-01

    We are concerned with robust estimation procedures to estimate the parameters in partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates. To enhance the interpretability, we suggest implementing a noncon-cave regularization method in the robust estimation procedure to select important covariates from the linear component. We establish the consistency for both the linear and the nonlinear components when the covariate dimension diverges at the rate of [Formula: see text], where n is the sample size. We show that the robust estimate of linear component performs asymptotically as well as its oracle counterpart which assumes the baseline function and the unimportant covariates were known a priori. With a consistent estimator of the linear component, we estimate the nonparametric component by a robust local linear regression. It is proved that the robust estimate of nonlinear component performs asymptotically as well as if the linear component were known in advance. Comprehensive simulation studies are carried out and an application is presented to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures.

  16. Counterparty Credit Risk on the Blockchain

    OpenAIRE

    Starlander, Isak

    2017-01-01

    Counterparty credit risk is present in trades offinancial obligations. This master thesis investigates the up and comingtechnology blockchain and how it could be used to mitigate counterparty creditrisk. The study intends to cover essentials of the mathematical model expectedloss, along with an introduction to the blockchain technology. After modellinga simple smart contract and using historical financial data, it was evidentthat there is a possible opportunity to reduce counterparty credit r...

  17. Latinos in the Credit Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Ralph, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    Access to consumer credit as a means of building wealth is one of the least examined forms of social inequality. The recent economic crisis in the United States has brought attention to the significance of consumer credit in our nation's economy; however, less understood are the specific obstacles and barriers that prevent low-income individuals from reaching the "American Dream." In an exploratory manner, this study compared credit access, credit literacy, and credit experience of low-income...

  18. Credit derivatives and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michael S. Gibson

    2007-01-01

    The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

  19. Increased thrombin generation in a mouse model of cancer cachexia is partially interleukin-6 dependent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddel, C J; Allen, J D; Ehteda, A; Taylor, R; Chen, V M Y; Curnow, J L; Kritharides, L; Robertson, G

    2017-03-01

    Essentials Cancer cachexia and cancer-associated thrombosis have not previously been mechanistically linked. We assessed thrombin generation and coagulation parameters in cachectic C26 tumor-bearing mice. C26 mice are hypercoagulable, partially corrected by blocking tumor derived interleukin-6. Coagulability and anti-inflammatory interventions may be clinically important in cancer cachexia. Background Cancer cachexia and cancer-associated thrombosis are potentially fatal outcomes of advanced cancer, which have not previously been mechanistically linked. The colon 26 (C26) carcinoma is a well-established mouse model of complications of advanced cancer cachexia, partially dependent on high levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) produced by the tumor. Objectives To assess if cancer cachexia altered the coagulation state and if this was attributable to tumor IL-6 production. Methods In male BALB/c*DBA2 (F1 hybrid) mice with a C26 tumor we used modified calibrated automated thrombogram and fibrin generation (based on overall hemostatic potential) assays to assess the functional coagulation state, and also examined fibrinogen, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), platelet count, tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) and hepatic expression of coagulation factors by microarray. C26 mice were compared with non-cachectic NC26, pair-fed and sham control mice. IL-6 expression in C26 cells was knocked down by lentiviral shRNA constructs. Results C26 mice with significant weight loss and highly elevated IL-6 had elevated thrombin generation, fibrinogen, ESR, platelets and TFPI compared with all control groups. Fibrin generation was elevated compared with pair-fed and sham controls but not compared with NC26 tumor mice. Hepatic expression of coagulation factors and fibrinolytic inhibitors was increased. Silencing IL-6 in the tumor significantly, but incompletely, attenuated the increased thrombin generation, fibrinogen and TFPI. Conclusions Cachectic C26 tumor-bearing mice are in a

  20. Finite-rate chemistry modelling of non-conventional combustion regimes using a Partially-Stirred Reactor closure: combustion model formulation and implementation details

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Zhiyi; Ferrarotti, Marco; Cuoci, Alberto; Parente, Alessandro

    2018-01-01

    The present work focuses on the numerical simulation ofModerate or Intense Low oxygen Dilution combustion condition, using thePartially-Stirred Reactor model for turbulence-chemistry interactions.The Partially-Stirred Reactor model assumes that reactions are confinedin a specific region of the computational cell, whose mass fractiondepends both on the mixing and the chemical time scales. Therefore, theappropriate choice of mixing and chemical time scales becomes crucial toensure the accuracy ...

  1. Tracer kinetics: Modelling by partial differential equations of inhomogeneous compartments with age-dependent elimination rates. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, E.

    1991-01-01

    The general theory of inhomogeneous compartments with age-dependent elimination rates is illustrated by examples. Mathematically, it turns out that models consisting of partial differential equations include ordinary, delayed and integro-differential equations, a general fact which is treated here in the context of linear tracer kinetics. The examples include standard compartments as a degenerate case, systems of standard compartments (compartment blocks), models resulting in special residence time distributions, models with pipes, and systems with heterogeneous particles. (orig./BBR) [de

  2. Algebraic aspects of evolution partial differential equation arising in the study of constant elasticity of variance model from financial mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motsepa, Tanki; Aziz, Taha; Fatima, Aeeman; Khalique, Chaudry Masood

    2018-03-01

    The optimal investment-consumption problem under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model is investigated from the perspective of Lie group analysis. The Lie symmetry group of the evolution partial differential equation describing the CEV model is derived. The Lie point symmetries are then used to obtain an exact solution of the governing model satisfying a standard terminal condition. Finally, we construct conservation laws of the underlying equation using the general theorem on conservation laws.

  3. Examining the Competition for Forest Resources in Sweden Using Factor Substitution Analysis and Partial Equilibrium Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsson, Anna

    2011-07-01

    The overall objective of the thesis is to analyse the procurement competition for forest resources in Sweden. The thesis consists of an introductory part and two self-contained papers. In paper I a translog cost function approach is used to analyse the factor substitution in the sawmill industry, the pulp and paper industry and the heating industry in Sweden over the period 1970 to 2008. The estimated parameters are used to calculate the Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution as well as the price elasticities of input demand. The utilisation of forest resources in the energy sector has been increasing and this increase is believed to continue. The increase is, to a large extent, caused by economic policies introduced to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Such policies could lead to an increase in the procurement competition between the forest industries and the energy sector. The calculated substitution elasticities indicate that it is easier for the heating industry to substitutes between by-products and logging residues than it is for the pulp and paper industry to substitute between by-products and roundwood. This suggests that the pulp and paper industry could suffer from an increase in the procurement competition. However, overall the substitutions elasticities estimated in our study are relatively low. This indicates that substitution possibilities could be rather limited due to rigidities in input prices. This result suggests that competition of forest resources also might be relatively limited. In paper II a partial equilibrium model is constructed in order to asses the effects an increasing utilisation of forest resources in the energy sector. The increasing utilisation of forest fuel is, to a large extent, caused by economic policies introduced to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. In countries where forests already are highly utilised such policies will lead to an increase in the procurement competition between the forest sector and

  4. Cancer-related fatigue in breast cancer patients after surgery: a multicomponent model using partial least squares-path modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolon, Catherine; Krikorian, Alicia; Carayol, Marion; Brouillet, Denis; Romieu, Gilles; Ninot, Gregory

    2014-04-01

    The aim of this study is to examine factors contributing to cancer-related fatigue (CRF) in breast cancer patients who have undergone surgery. Sixty women (mean age: 50.0) completed self-rated questionnaires assessing components of CRF, muscular and cognitive functions. Also, physiological and subjective data were gathered. Data were analyzed using partial least squares variance-based structural equation modeling in order to examine factors contributing to CRF after breast surgery. The tested model was robust in terms of its measurement quality (reliability and validity). According to the structural model results, emotional distress (β = 0.59; p accounting for 61% of the explained variance. Also, emotional distress (β = 0.41; p accounted for 41% of the explained variance. However, the relationship between low physical function and CRF was weak and nonsignificant (β = 0.01; p > 0.05). Emotional distress, altered vigilance capacity, and pain are associated with CRF in postsurgical breast cancer. In addition, emotional distress and pain are related to diminished physical function, which, in turn, has no significant impact on CRF. The current model should be examined in subsequent phases of the treatment (chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy) when side effects are more pronounced and may lead to increased intensity of CRF and low physical function. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. In silico ordinary differential equation/partial differential equation hemodialysis model estimates methadone removal during dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linares OA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Oscar A Linares,1 William E Schiesser,2 Jeffrey Fudin,3–6 Thien C Pham,6 Jeffrey J Bettinger,6 Roy O Mathew,6 Annemarie L Daly7 1Translational Genomic Medicine Lab, Plymouth Pharmacokinetic Modeling Study Group, Plymouth, MI, 2Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 3University of Connecticut School of Pharmacy, Storrs, CT, 4Western New England College of Pharmacy, Springfield, MA, 5Albany College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Albany, NY, 6Stratton VA Medical Center, Albany, NY, 7Grace Hospice of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, USA Background: There is a need to have a model to study methadone’s losses during hemodialysis to provide informed methadone dose recommendations for the practitioner. Aim: To build a one-dimensional (1-D, hollow-fiber geometry, ordinary differential equation (ODE and partial differential equation (PDE countercurrent hemodialyzer model (ODE/PDE model. Methodology: We conducted a cross-sectional study in silico that evaluated eleven hemodialysis patients. Patients received a ceiling dose of methadone hydrochloride 30 mg/day. Outcome measures included: the total amount of methadone removed during dialysis; methadone’s overall intradialytic mass transfer rate coefficient, km; and, methadone’s removal rate, jME. Each metric was measured at dialysate flow rates of 250 mL/min and 800 mL/min. Results: The ODE/PDE model revealed a significant increase in the change of methadone’s mass transfer with increased dialysate flow rate, %Δ km=18.56, P=0.02, N=11. The total amount of methadone mass transferred across the dialyzer membrane with high dialysate flow rate significantly increased (0.042±0.016 versus 0.052±0.019 mg/kg, P=0.02, N=11. This was accompanied by a small significant increase in methadone’s mass transfer rate (0.113±0.002 versus 0.014±0.002 mg/kg/h, P=0.02, N=11. The ODE/PDE model accurately predicted methadone’s removal during dialysis. The absolute value

  6. Modeling Solution of Nonlinear Dispersive Partial Differential Equations using the Marker Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewandowski, Jerome L.V.

    2005-01-01

    A new method for the solution of nonlinear dispersive partial differential equations is described. The marker method relies on the definition of a convective field associated with the underlying partial differential equation; the information about the approximate solution is associated with the response of an ensemble of markers to this convective field. Some key aspects of the method, such as the selection of the shape function and the initial loading, are discussed in some details

  7. Model Following and High Order Augmentation for Rotorcraft Control, Applied via Partial Authority

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spires, James Michael

    only (HOC_FB), while the combined objective HOC has both feedback and feedforward elements (HOC_FBFF). The HOC_FB was found to be better at improving turbulence rejection but generally degrades the following of pilot commands. The HOC_FBFF improves turbulence rejection relative to the Baseline controller, but not by as much as HOC_FB. However, HOC_FBFF also generally improves the following of pilot commands. Future work is suggested and facilitated in the areas of DI, MIMO EMF, and HOC augmentation. High frequency dynamics, neglected in the DI design, unexpectedly change the low frequency behavior of the DI-plant system, in addition to the expected change in high frequency dynamics. This dissertation shows why, and suggests a technique for designing a pseudo-command pre-filter that at least partially restores the intended DI-plant dynamics. For EMF, a procedure is presented that avoids use of a reducedorder model, and instead uses a full-order model or even frequency-domain flight test data. With HOC augmentation, future research might investigate the utility of adding an H? constraint to the design objective, which is known as an equal-weighting mixed-norm H2/H infinity design. Because all the formulas in the published literature either require solution of three coupled Riccati Equations (for which there is no readily available tool), or make assumptions that do not fit the present problem, appropriate equalweighting H2/H infinity design formulas are derived which involve two de-coupled Riccati Equations.

  8. Improved variable reduction in partial least squares modelling based on predictive-property-ranked variables and adaptation of partial least squares complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andries, Jan P M; Vander Heyden, Yvan; Buydens, Lutgarde M C

    2011-10-31

    The calibration performance of partial least squares for one response variable (PLS1) can be improved by elimination of uninformative variables. Many methods are based on so-called predictive variable properties, which are functions of various PLS-model parameters, and which may change during the variable reduction process. In these methods variable reduction is made on the variables ranked in descending order for a given variable property. The methods start with full spectrum modelling. Iteratively, until a specified number of remaining variables is reached, the variable with the smallest property value is eliminated; a new PLS model is calculated, followed by a renewed ranking of the variables. The Stepwise Variable Reduction methods using Predictive-Property-Ranked Variables are denoted as SVR-PPRV. In the existing SVR-PPRV methods the PLS model complexity is kept constant during the variable reduction process. In this study, three new SVR-PPRV methods are proposed, in which a possibility for decreasing the PLS model complexity during the variable reduction process is build in. Therefore we denote our methods as PPRVR-CAM methods (Predictive-Property-Ranked Variable Reduction with Complexity Adapted Models). The selective and predictive abilities of the new methods are investigated and tested, using the absolute PLS regression coefficients as predictive property. They were compared with two modifications of existing SVR-PPRV methods (with constant PLS model complexity) and with two reference methods: uninformative variable elimination followed by either a genetic algorithm for PLS (UVE-GA-PLS) or an interval PLS (UVE-iPLS). The performance of the methods is investigated in conjunction with two data sets from near-infrared sources (NIR) and one simulated set. The selective and predictive performances of the variable reduction methods are compared statistically using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. The three newly developed PPRVR-CAM methods were able to retain

  9. Modelo de classificação de risco de crédito de empresas A model for the classification of companies credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovani Antonio Silva Brito

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available O processo de gerenciamento de risco de crédito em instituições financeiras vem passando por uma revisão ao longo dos últimos anos. Nesse contexto, diversas novas técnicas de mensuração de risco de crédito e tomadores têm sido desenvolvidas e implementadas por grandes Bancos. O objetivo desta pesquisa é desenvolver um modelo de classificação de risco para avaliar o risco de crédito de empresas no mercado brasileiro. O modelo foi construído com base em uma amostra de empresas de capital aberto classificadas como solventes ou insolventes no período entre 1994 e 2004. A técnica estatística utilizada no desenvolvimento do modelo foi a regressão logística. As variáveis independentes são índices financeiros calculados a partir das demonstrações contábeis e utilizados para representar a situação econômico-financeira das empresas. A validação do modelo foi efetuada utilizando o método Jackknife e uma Curva ROC. Os resultados do estudo indicam que o modelo de classificação de risco desenvolvido prevê eventos de default com um ano de antecedência com bom nível de acurácia. Os resultados, também, indicam que as demonstrações contábeis contêm informações que possibilitam a classificação das empresas como prováveis solventes ou prováveis insolventes.The process of credit risk management in financial institutions has been revised in recent years. In this context, large banks have developed and implemented several new techniques for measuring borrowers credit risk. This research aims to develop a risk classification model to assess the credit risk of companies in the Brazilian market. The model was built based on a sample of publicly traded companies classified as solvent or insolvent during the period from 1994 to 2004. Logistic regression was used to develop the model. The independent variables of the model are financial ratios, calculated from the financial statements and used as proxies of companies economic

  10. A Comparison of Item Selection Procedures Using Different Ability Estimation Methods in Computerized Adaptive Testing Based on the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Tsung-Han

    2010-01-01

    Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a highly efficient alternative to the paper-and-pencil test. By selecting items that match examinees' ability levels, CAT not only can shorten test length and administration time but it can also increase measurement precision and reduce measurement error. In CAT, maximum information (MI) is the most…

  11. Recommendations for Alternative Credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenderman, Ed; And Others

    Following a review of the mathematics topics taught in accounting, electronics, auto, food and clothing, and metals courses at Linn-Benton Community College, Albany, Oregon, recommendations were made to grant one semester of mathematics credit for completing a two-year sequence of these courses. The other required semester of mathematics should be…

  12. Waiting for tax credits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheinkopf, K.

    1992-01-01

    This article examines the effect of tax credits and related legislation under consideration by Congress on the economics of the renewable energy industry. The topics discussed in the article include conflicting industry opinion on financial incentives, the effectiveness of current incentives, and alternative approaches. The article also includes a sidebar on tax incentives offered by state programs

  13. Myostatin deficiency partially rescues the bone phenotype of osteogenesis imperfecta model mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oestreich, A K; Carleton, S M; Yao, X; Gentry, B A; Raw, C E; Brown, M; Pfeiffer, F M; Wang, Y; Phillips, C L

    2016-01-01

    Mice with osteogenesis imperfecta (+/oim), a disorder of bone fragility, were bred to mice with muscle over growth to test whether increasing muscle mass genetically would improve bone quality and strength. The results demonstrate that femora from mice carrying both mutations have greater mechanical integrity than their +/oim littermates. Osteogenesis imperfecta is a heritable connective tissue disorder due primarily to mutations in the type I collagen genes resulting in skeletal deformity and fragility. Currently, there is no cure, and therapeutic strategies encompass the use of antiresorptive pharmaceuticals and surgical bracing, with limited success and significant potential for adverse effects. Bone, a mechanosensing organ, can respond to high mechanical loads by increasing new bone formation and altering bone geometry to withstand increased forces. Skeletal muscle is a major source of physiological loading on bone, and bone strength is proportional to muscle mass. To test the hypothesis that congenic increases in muscle mass in the osteogenesis imperfecta murine model mouse (oim) will improve their compromised bone quality and strength, heterozygous (+/oim) mice were bred to mice deficient in myostatin (+/mstn), a negative regulator of muscle growth. The resulting adult offspring were evaluated for hindlimb muscle mass, and bone microarchitecture, physiochemistry, and biomechanical integrity. +/oim mice deficient in myostatin (+/mstn +/oim) were generated and demonstrated that myostatin deficiency increased body weight, muscle mass, and biomechanical strength in +/mstn +/oim mice as compared to +/oim mice. Additionally, myostatin deficiency altered the physiochemical properties of the +/oim bone but did not alter bone remodeling. Myostatin deficiency partially improved the reduced femoral bone biomechanical strength of adult +/oim mice by increasing muscle mass with concomitant improvements in bone microarchitecture and physiochemical properties.

  14. Pore-scale modeling of vapor transport in partially saturated capillary tube with variable area using chemical potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addassi, Mouadh; Schreyer, Lynn; Johannesson, Björn

    2016-01-01

    Here we illustrate the usefulness of using the chemical potential as the primary unknown by modeling isothermal vapor transport through a partially saturated cylindrically symmetric capillary tube of variable cross-sectional area using a single equation. There are no fitting parameters and the nu......Here we illustrate the usefulness of using the chemical potential as the primary unknown by modeling isothermal vapor transport through a partially saturated cylindrically symmetric capillary tube of variable cross-sectional area using a single equation. There are no fitting parameters...... and the numerical solutions to the equation are compared with experimental results with excellent agreement. We demonstrate that isothermal vapor transport can be accurately modeled without modeling the details of the contact angle, microscale temperature fluctuations, or pressure fluctuations using a modification...

  15. Thermodynamically consistent modeling and simulation of multi-component two-phase flow model with partial miscibility

    KAUST Repository

    Kou, Jisheng

    2016-11-25

    A general diffuse interface model with a realistic equation of state (e.g. Peng-Robinson equation of state) is proposed to describe the multi-component two-phase fluid flow based on the principles of the NVT-based framework which is a latest alternative over the NPT-based framework to model the realistic fluids. The proposed model uses the Helmholtz free energy rather than Gibbs free energy in the NPT-based framework. Different from the classical routines, we combine the first law of thermodynamics and related thermodynamical relations to derive the entropy balance equation, and then we derive a transport equation of the Helmholtz free energy density. Furthermore, by using the second law of thermodynamics, we derive a set of unified equations for both interfaces and bulk phases that can describe the partial miscibility of two fluids. A relation between the pressure gradient and chemical potential gradients is established, and this relation leads to a new formulation of the momentum balance equation, which demonstrates that chemical potential gradients become the primary driving force of fluid motion. Moreover, we prove that the proposed model satisfies the total (free) energy dissipation with time. For numerical simulation of the proposed model, the key difficulties result from the strong nonlinearity of Helmholtz free energy density and tight coupling relations between molar densities and velocity. To resolve these problems, we propose a novel convex-concave splitting of Helmholtz free energy density and deal well with the coupling relations between molar densities and velocity through very careful physical observations with a mathematical rigor. We prove that the proposed numerical scheme can preserve the discrete (free) energy dissipation. Numerical tests are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Linkage of Credit on BI Rate, Funds Rate, Inflation and Government Spending on Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Linkage of credit on BI rate, funds rate, inflation, and government spending on capital provides evidence from Indonesia.  This paper found advance explanation about banks credit as monetary transmission channel and its role on Indonesian economy.  We used credit depth as a ratio of banks credit to GDP nominal, to explain the role of credit in Indonesian economy.  We developed a VAR model to measure the response of credit to BI rate, funds rate and inflation rate, and OLS method to find out how banks credit response to government spending on capital. This paper revealed bi-direction causality between credit and BI rate, credit and funds rate, and credit and inflation.  There is trade-off between credit and BI rate, credit and funds rate, and credit and inflation, but government spending on capital promotes credit depth.  We found that Indonesian banking is bank view, allocated their credit based on their performance, not merely on the monetary policy determined by central bank.  For bank view perspectives, we analyzed the link between LDR as an indicator of credit channel mechanism to NPLs and CAR.  We found that there is no significant effect of CAR to LDR, but has a strong negatively relationship between NPLs to LDR.  This evidence indicates that commercial banks in Indonesia allocated their credit do not related to their capital but merely to the quality of their credit portfolio.

  17. Effects of partial portal vein arterialization on the hilar bile duct in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shao-Hua; Li, Chong-Hui; Chen, Yong-Liang; Song, Jian-Ning; Zhang, Ai-Qun; Zhou, Cheng

    2011-10-01

    Liver revascularization is frequently required during the enlarged radical operation for hilar cholangiocarcinoma involving the hepatic artery. Researchers have carried out a number of experiments applying partial portal vein arterialization (PVA) in clinical practice. In this study we aimed to establish a theoretical basis for clinical application of partial PVA and to investigate the effects of partial PVA on rat hilar bile duct and hepatic functions. Thirty rats were randomly and equally assigned into 3 groups: control (group A), hepatic artery ligation+bile duct recanalization (group B), and partial PVA+bile duct recanalization (group C). Proliferation and apoptosis of rat hilar bile duct epithelial cells, arteriolar counts of the peribiliary plexus (PBP) of the bile duct wall, changes in serum biochemistry, and pathologic changes in the bile duct were assessed 1 month after operation. The proliferation of hilar bile duct epithelial cells in group B was greater than in groups A and C (Philar bile duct epithelial cells were detected in any of the groups. The PBP arteriolar counts of the hilar bile duct wall were similar in groups A and C (P>0.05), but the count was lower in group B than in group A (Philar bile duct walls were observed only in group B. Partial PVA can restore the arterial blood supply of the hilar bile duct and significantly extenuate the injury to hilar bile duct epithelial cells resulting from hepatic artery ligation.

  18. CO2 credit or energy credit in emission trading?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, E.

    2002-01-01

    Emission trading is a good concept and approach to tackle global warming. However, what ''currency'' or ''credit'' should be used in the trading has remained a debatable topic. This paper proposed an ''Energy Credit'' concept as an alternative to the ''CO 2 credit'' that is currently in place. From the thermodynamic point of view, the global warming problem is an ''energy balance'' problem. The energy credit concept is thought to be more thermodynamically correct and tackles the core of the global warming problem more directly. The Energy credit concept proposed can be defined as: the credit to offset the extra energy trapped/absorbed in the earth (and its atmosphere) due to the extra anthropogenic emission (or other activities) by a country or company. A couple of examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the Energy credit and its advantages over the CO 2 credit concept. (author)

  19. Stochastic Partial Differential Equation Solver for Hydroacoustic Modeling: Improvements to Paracousti Sound Propagation Solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices offer a clean, renewable alternative energy source for the future. Responsible utilization of MHK devices, however, requires that the effects of acoustic noise produced by these devices on marine life and marine-related human activities be well understood. Paracousti is a 3-D full waveform acoustic modeling suite that can accurately propagate MHK noise signals in the complex bathymetry found in the near-shore to open ocean environment and considers real properties of the seabed, water column, and air-surface interface. However, this is a deterministic simulation that assumes the environment and source are exactly known. In reality, environmental and source characteristics are often only known in a statistical sense. Thus, to fully characterize the expected noise levels within the marine environment, this uncertainty in environmental and source factors should be incorporated into the acoustic simulations. One method is to use Monte Carlo (MC) techniques where simulation results from a large number of deterministic solutions are aggregated to provide statistical properties of the output signal. However, MC methods can be computationally prohibitive since they can require tens of thousands or more simulations to build up an accurate representation of those statistical properties. An alternative method, using the technique of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE), allows computation of the statistical properties of output signals at a small fraction of the computational cost of MC. We are developing a SPDE solver for the 3-D acoustic wave propagation problem called Paracousti-UQ to help regulators and operators assess the statistical properties of environmental noise produced by MHK devices. In this presentation, we present the SPDE method and compare statistical distributions of simulated acoustic signals in simple models to MC simulations to show the accuracy and efficiency of the SPDE method. Sandia National Laboratories

  20. Methods for partial differential equations qualitative properties of solutions, phase space analysis, semilinear models

    CERN Document Server

    Ebert, Marcelo R

    2018-01-01

    This book provides an overview of different topics related to the theory of partial differential equations. Selected exercises are included at the end of each chapter to prepare readers for the “research project for beginners” proposed at the end of the book. It is a valuable resource for advanced graduates and undergraduate students who are interested in specializing in this area. The book is organized in five parts: In Part 1 the authors review the basics and the mathematical prerequisites, presenting two of the most fundamental results in the theory of partial differential equations: the Cauchy-Kovalevskaja theorem and Holmgren's uniqueness theorem in its classical and abstract form. It also introduces the method of characteristics in detail and applies this method to the study of Burger's equation. Part 2 focuses on qualitative properties of solutions to basic partial differential equations, explaining the usual properties of solutions to elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic equations for the archetypes...