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Sample records for partial credit model

  1. Partially Observed Mixtures of IRT Models: An Extension of the Generalized Partial-Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Davier, Matthias; Yamamoto, Kentaro

    2004-01-01

    The generalized partial-credit model (GPCM) is used frequently in educational testing and in large-scale assessments for analyzing polytomous data. Special cases of the generalized partial-credit model are the partial-credit model--or Rasch model for ordinal data--and the two parameter logistic (2PL) model. This article extends the GPCM to the…

  2. A Generalized Partial Credit Model: Application of an EM Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muraki, Eiji

    1992-01-01

    The partial credit model with a varying slope parameter is developed and called the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). Analysis results for simulated data by this and other polytomous item-response models demonstrate that the rating formulation of the GPCM is adaptable to the analysis of polytomous item responses. (SLD)

  3. Testing the generalized partial credit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1996-01-01

    The partial credit model (PCM) (G.N. Masters, 1982) can be viewed as a generalization of the Rasch model for dichotomous items to the case of polytomous items. In many cases, the PCM is too restrictive to fit the data. Several generalizations of the PCM have been proposed. In this paper, a

  4. Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhelst, N. D.; Verstralen, H. H. F. M.

    2008-01-01

    The Partial Credit Model (PCM) is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as difficulties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justified. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary…

  5. MODEL PENSKORAN PARTIAL CREDIT PADA BUTIR MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BIDANG FISIKA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasis Wasis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tujuan penelitian ini menghasilkan model penskoran politomus untuk respons butir multiple true-false, sehingga dapat mengestimasi secara lebih akurat kemampuan di bidang fisika. Pengembangan penskoran menggunakan Four-D model dan diuji akurasinya melalui penelitian empiris dan simulasi. Penelitian empiris menggunakan 15 butir multiple true-false yang diambil dari soal UMPTN tahun 1996-2006 dan dikenakan pada 410 mahasiswa baru FMIPA Universitas Negeri Surabaya angkatan tahun 2007. Respons peserta tes diskor dengan tiga model partial credit (PCM I; II; dan III dan secara dikotomus. Hasil penskoran dianalisis dengan program Quest untuk mendapat-kan estimasi tingkat kesukaran butir (δ dan estimasi ke-mampuan peserta (θ untuk menentukan nilai fungsi informasi tes dan kesalahan baku estimasi. Penelitian simulasi mengguna-kan data bangkitan berdasarkan parameter empiris (δ dan θ memakai program statistik SAS dan akurasi estimasinya di-analisis dengan metode root mean squared error (RMSE. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan: (i Penskoran PCM dengan pem-bobotan mampu mengestimasi kemampuan lebih akurat di-bandingkan tanpa pembobotan maupun secara dikotomus; (ii Semakin banyak jumlah kategori dalam penskoran partial credit, semakin akurat. Kata kunci: model penskoran partial credit, butir multiple true-false ____________________________________________________________ THE PARTIAL CREDIT SCORING MODEL FOR THE MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BUTIRS IN PHYSICS Abstract This study is an attempt to overcome the weaknesses. This study aims to produce a polytomous scoring model for responses to multiple true-false butirs in order to get a more accurate estimation of abilities in physics. It adopts the Four-D model and its accuracy is assessed through empirical and simulation studies. The empirical study employed 15 multiple true-false butirs taken from the New Students Entrance Test of State University the year of 1996–2006. It administered to 410 new students enrolled

  6. Testing the generalized partial credit model

    OpenAIRE

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1996-01-01

    The partial credit model (PCM) (G.N. Masters, 1982) can be viewed as a generalization of the Rasch model for dichotomous items to the case of polytomous items. In many cases, the PCM is too restrictive to fit the data. Several generalizations of the PCM have been proposed. In this paper, a generalization of the PCM (GPCM), a further generalization of the one-parameter logistic model, is discussed. The model is defined and the conditional maximum likelihood procedure for the method is describe...

  7. Response Styles in the Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Tutz, Gerhard; Schauberger, Gunther; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    In the modelling of ordinal responses in psychological measurement and survey- based research, response styles that represent specific answering patterns of respondents are typically ignored. One consequence is that estimates of item parameters can be poor and considerably biased. The focus here is on the modelling of a tendency to extreme or middle categories. An extension of the Partial Credit Model is proposed that explicitly accounts for this specific response style. In contrast to exi...

  8. Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    H.H.F.M. Verstralen; N.D. Verhelst

    2008-01-01

    The Partial Credit Model (PCM) is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as di culties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justi ed. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary responses which are not supposed to be stochastically independent. As a practical result, a statistical test of sto...

  9. Fitting and Testing Conditional Multinormal Partial Credit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessen, David J.

    2012-01-01

    A multinormal partial credit model for factor analysis of polytomously scored items with ordered response categories is derived using an extension of the Dutch Identity (Holland in "Psychometrika" 55:5-18, 1990). In the model, latent variables are assumed to have a multivariate normal distribution conditional on unweighted sums of item…

  10. Stepwise Analysis of Differential Item Functioning Based on Multiple-Group Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muraki, Eiji

    1999-01-01

    Extended an Item Response Theory (IRT) method for detection of differential item functioning to the partial credit model and applied the method to simulated data using a stepwise procedure. Then applied the stepwise DIF analysis based on the multiple-group partial credit model to writing trend data from the National Assessment of Educational…

  11. Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.H.F.M. Verstralen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The Partial Credit Model (PCM is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as di culties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justi ed. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary responses which are not supposed to be stochastically independent. As a practical result, a statistical test of stochastic independence in the Rasch model is derived

  12. Understanding Rasch Measurement: Partial Credit Model and Pivot Anchoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Rita K.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Rasch measurement partial credit model, what it is, how it differs from other Rasch models, and when and how to use it. Also describes the calibration of instruments with increasingly complex items. Explains pivot anchoring and illustrates its use and describes the effect of pivot anchoring on step calibrations, item hierarchy, and…

  13. An Introduction to the Partial Credit Model for Developing Nursing Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Christine

    1999-01-01

    Demonstrates how the partial credit model, a variation of the Rasch Measurement Model, can be used to develop performance-based assessments for nursing education. Applies the model using the Practical Knowledge Inventory for Nurses. (SK)

  14. Optimal Designs for the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Bürkner, Paul-Christian; Schwabe, Rainer; Holling, Heinz

    2018-01-01

    Analyzing ordinal data becomes increasingly important in psychology, especially in the context of item response theory. The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is probably the most widely used ordinal model and finds application in many large scale educational assessment studies such as PISA. In the present paper, optimal test designs are investigated for estimating persons' abilities with the GPCM for calibrated tests when item parameters are known from previous studies. We will derive t...

  15. An Extension of the Partial Credit Model with an Application to the Measurement of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Gerhard H.; Ponocny, Ivo

    1994-01-01

    An extension to the partial credit model, the linear partial credit model, is considered under the assumption of a certain linear decomposition of the item x category parameters into basic parameters. A conditional maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating basic parameters is presented and illustrated with simulation and an empirical study. (SLD)

  16. Detecting Math Anxiety with a Mixture Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ölmez, Ibrahim Burak; Cohen, Allan S.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate a new methodology for detection of differences in middle grades students' math anxiety. A mixture partial credit model analysis revealed two distinct latent classes based on homogeneities in response patterns within each latent class. Students in Class 1 had less anxiety about apprehension of math…

  17. A Comparison of Graded Response and Rasch Partial Credit Models with Subjective Well-Being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, John G.; Rounds, James B.; Zevon, Michael A.

    2000-01-01

    Compared two multiple category item response theory models using a data set of 52 mood terms with 713 undergraduate psychology students. Comparative model fit for the Samejima (F. Samejima, 1966) logistic model for graded responses and the Masters (G. Masters, 1982) partial credit model favored the former model for this data set. (SLD)

  18. A Comparison of Item Exposure Control Procedures with the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Edgar Isaac

    2008-01-01

    To enhance test security of high stakes tests, it is vital to understand the way various exposure control strategies function under various IRT models. To that end the present dissertation focused on the performance of several exposure control strategies under the generalized partial credit model with an item pool of 100 and 200 items. These…

  19. Rasch-Master's Partial Credit Model in the assessment of children's creativity in drawings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Tatiana de Cássia; Primi, Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to use the Partial Credit Model to study the factors of the Test of Creativity in Children and identify which characteristics of the creative person would be more effective to differentiate subjects according to their ability level. A sample of 1426 students from first to eighth grades answered the instrument. The Partial Credits model was used to estimate the ability of the subjects and item difficulties on a common scale for each of the four factors, indicating which items required a higher level of creativity to be scored and will differentiate the more creative individuals. The results demonstrated that the greater part of the characteristics showed good fit indices, with values between 0.80 and 1.30 both infit and outfit, indicating a response pattern consistent with the model. The characteristics of Unusual Perspective, Expression of Emotion and Originality have been identified as better predictors of creative performance because requires greater ability level (usually above two standard deviation). These results may be used in the future development of an instrument's reduced form or simplification of the current correction model.

  20. Ordering policies of a deteriorating item in an EOQ model with backorder under two-level partial trade credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molamohamadi, Zohreh; Arshizadeh, Rahman; Ismail, Napsiah

    2015-05-01

    In the classical inventory model, it was assumed that the retailer must settle the accounts of the purchased items as soon as they are received. In practice, however, the supplier usually offers a full or partial delay period to the retailer to pay for the amount of the purchasing costs. In the partial trade credit contract, which is mostly applied to avoid non-payment risks, the retailer must pay for a portion of the purchased goods at the time of ordering and may delay settling the rest until the end of the predefined agreed upon period, so-called credit period. This paper assumes a two-level partial trade credit where both supplier and retailer offer a partial trade credit to their downstream members. The objective here is to determine the retailer's ordering policy of a deteriorating item by formulating his economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory system with backorder as a cost minimization problem. The sensitivity of the variables on different parameters has been also analyzed by applying numerical examples.

  1. The Dif Identification in Constructed Response Items Using Partial Credit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Heri Retnawati

    2017-01-01

    The study was to identify the load, the type and the significance of differential item functioning (DIF) in constructed response item using the partial credit model (PCM). The data in the study were the students’ instruments and the students’ responses toward the PISA-like test items that had been completed by 386 ninth grade students and 460 tenth grade students who had been about 15 years old in the Province of Yogyakarta Special Region in Indonesia. The analysis toward the item characteris...

  2. On the Existence and Uniqueness of JML Estimates for the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoli-Barsotti, Lucio

    2005-01-01

    A necessary and sufficient condition is given in this paper for the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood (the so-called joint maximum likelihood) estimate of the parameters of the Partial Credit Model. This condition is stated in terms of a structural property of the pattern of the data matrix that can be easily verified on the basis…

  3. An isotonic partial credit model for ordering subjects on the basis of their sum scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligtvoet, R.

    2012-01-01

    In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable.

  4. Applying a Weighted Maximum Likelihood Latent Trait Estimator to the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfield, Randall D.; Bergeron, Jennifer M.

    2005-01-01

    This article applies a weighted maximum likelihood (WML) latent trait estimator to the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). The relevant equations required to obtain the WML estimator using the Newton-Raphson algorithm are presented, and a simulation study is described that compared the properties of the WML estimator to those of the maximum…

  5. An Isotonic Partial Credit Model for Ordering Subjects on the Basis of Their Sum Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligtvoet, Rudy

    2012-01-01

    In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable. However, the PCM is very restrictive with respect…

  6. Methods for Assessing Item, Step, and Threshold Invariance in Polytomous Items Following the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfield, Randall D.; Myers, Nicholas D.; Wolfe, Edward W.

    2008-01-01

    Measurement invariance in the partial credit model (PCM) can be conceptualized in several different but compatible ways. In this article the authors distinguish between three forms of measurement invariance in the PCM: step invariance, item invariance, and threshold invariance. Approaches for modeling these three forms of invariance are proposed,…

  7. Exploring Alternative Characteristic Curve Approaches to Linking Parameter Estimates from the Generalized Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James S.; Bao, Han; Huang, Chun-Wei; Gagne, Phill

    Characteristic curve approaches for linking parameters from the generalized partial credit model were examined for cases in which common (anchor) items are calibrated separately in two groups. Three of these approaches are simple extensions of the test characteristic curve (TCC), item characteristic curve (ICC), and operating characteristic curve…

  8. Strategies for Controlling Item Exposure in Computerized Adaptive Testing with the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Laurie Laughlin

    2004-01-01

    Choosing a strategy for controlling item exposure has become an integral part of test development for computerized adaptive testing (CAT). This study investigated the performance of six procedures for controlling item exposure in a series of simulated CATs under the generalized partial credit model. In addition to a no-exposure control baseline…

  9. A Study of Reverse-Worded Matched Item Pairs Using the Generalized Partial Credit and Nominal Response Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlock Cole, Ki Lynn; Turner, Ronna C.; Gitchel, W. Dent

    2018-01-01

    The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is often used for polytomous data; however, the nominal response model (NRM) allows for the investigation of how adjacent categories may discriminate differently when items are positively or negatively worded. Ten items from three different self-reported scales were used (anxiety, depression, and…

  10. A Multidimensional Partial Credit Model with Associated Item and Test Statistics: An Application to Mixed-Format Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Lihua; Schwarz, Richard D.

    2006-01-01

    Multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed for better understanding the dimensional structure of data or to define diagnostic profiles of student learning. A compensatory multidimensional two-parameter partial credit model (M-2PPC) for constructed-response items is presented that is a generalization of those proposed to…

  11. Parent Ratings of ADHD Symptoms: Generalized Partial Credit Model Analysis of Differential Item Functioning across Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Rapson

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Generalized partial credit model, which is based on item response theory (IRT), was used to test differential item functioning (DIF) for the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.), inattention (IA), and hyperactivity/impulsivity (HI) symptoms across boys and girls. Method: To accomplish this, parents completed…

  12. Comparison of Exposure Controls, Item Pool Characteristics, and Population Distributions for CAT Using the Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, HwaYoung; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated item exposure control procedures under various combinations of item pool characteristics and ability distributions in computerized adaptive testing based on the partial credit model. Three variables were manipulated: item pool characteristics (120 items for each of easy, medium, and hard item pools), two ability…

  13. Two echelon partial trade credit financing in a supply chain derived algebraically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaggi Chandra K.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Trade credit financing has become a powerful tool to improve sales & profit in an industry. In general, a supplier/retailer frequently offers trade credit to its credit risk downstream member in order to stimulate their respective sales. This trade credit may either be full or partial depending upon the past profile of the downstream member. Partial trade credit may be offered by the supplier/retailer to their credit risk downstream member who must pay a portion of the purchase amount at the time of placing an order and then receives a permissible delay on the rest of the outstanding amount to avoid non-payment risks. The present study investigates the retailer’s inventory problem under partial trade credit financing for two echelon supply chain where the supplier, as well as the retailer, offers partial trade credit to the subsequent downstream member. An algebraic approach has been applied for finding the retailer’s optimal ordering policy under minimizing the annual total relevant cost. Results have been validated with the help of examples followed by comprehensive sensitivity analysis.

  14. Application of Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach in an economic production quantity model with partial trade credit policy under fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinki Majumder

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this present study, a production inventory model with partial trade credit is formulated and solved in fuzzy environment via Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach. To capture the market, a supplier offers a trade credit period to its retailers. Due to this facility, retailer also offers a partial trade credit period to his/her customer to boost the demand of the item. In practical life situation, demands are generally dependent upon time. Constant demand of an item varies time to time. In this vague situation, demands are taken as time dependent, where its constant part is taken as Left Right - type fuzzy number. In this paper, Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach is used to solve the fuzzy inventory model. Four different cases are considered by using Generalized Hukuhara-(i differentiability and Generalized Hukuhara-(ii differentiability. The objective of this paper is to find out the optimal time so as the total inventory cost is minimum. Finally the model is solved by generalized reduced gradient method. The proposed model and technique are illustrated by numerical examples. Some sensitivity analyses both in tabular and graphical forms are presented and the effects of minimum cost with respect to various inventory parameters are discussed.

  15. A Comparison of Item Selection Techniques and Exposure Control Mechanisms in CATs Using the Generalized Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor, Dena A.; Dodd, Barbara G.; Chang, Hua-Hua

    2002-01-01

    Studied the impact of using five different exposure control algorithms in two sizes of item pool calibrated using the generalized partial credit model. Simulation results show that the a-stratified design, in comparison to a no-exposure control condition, could be used to reduce item exposure and overlap and increase pool use, while degrading…

  16. An Examination of Exposure Control and Content Balancing Restrictions on Item Selection in CATs Using the Partial Credit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Laurie Laughlin; Pastor, Dena A.; Dodd, Barbara G.; Chiang, Claire; Fitzpatrick, Steven J.

    2003-01-01

    Examined the effectiveness of the Sympson-Hetter technique and rotated content balancing relative to no exposure control and no content rotation conditions in a computerized adaptive testing system based on the partial credit model. Simulation results show the Sympson-Hetter technique can be used with minimal impact on measurement precision,…

  17. Measurement of Online Student Engagement: Utilization of Continuous Online Student Behavior Indicators as Items in a Partial Credit Rasch Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    Student engagement has been shown to be essential to the development of research-based best practices for K-12 education. It has been defined and measured in numerous ways. The purpose of this research study was to develop a measure of online student engagement for grades 3 through 8 using a partial credit Rasch model and validate the measure…

  18. On Partial Defaults in Portfolio Credit Risk : A Poisson Mixture Model Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Weißbach, Rafael; von Lieres und Wilkau, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    Most credit portfolio models exclusively calculate the loss distribution for a portfolio of performing counterparts. Conservative default definitions cause considerable insecurity about the loss for a long time after the default. We present three approaches to account for defaulted counterparts in the calculation of the economic capital. Two of the approaches are based on the Poisson mixture model CreditRisk+ and derive a loss distribution for an integrated portfolio. The third method treats ...

  19. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  20. The Dif Identification in Constructed Response Items Using Partial Credit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heri Retnawati

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study was to identify the load, the type and the significance of differential item functioning (DIF in constructed response item using the partial credit model (PCM. The data in the study were the students’ instruments and the students’ responses toward the PISA-like test items that had been completed by 386 ninth grade students and 460 tenth grade students who had been about 15 years old in the Province of Yogyakarta Special Region in Indonesia. The analysis toward the item characteristics through the student categorization based on their class was conducted toward the PCM using CONQUEST software. Furthermore, by applying these items characteristics, the researcher draw the category response function (CRF graphic in order to identify whether the type of DIF content had been in uniform or non-uniform. The significance of DIF was identified by comparing the discrepancy between the difficulty level parameter and the error in the CONQUEST output results. The results of the analysis showed that from 18 items that had been analyzed there were 4 items which had not been identified load DIF, there were 5 items that had been identified containing DIF but not statistically significant and there were 9 items that had been identified containing DIF significantly. The causes of items containing DIF were discussed.

  1. A credit policy approach in a two-warehouse inventory model for deteriorating items with price- and stock-dependent demand under partial backlogging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Gobinda Chandra; Khan, Md. Al-Amin; Shaikh, Ali Akbar

    2018-04-01

    Advertisement of the product is an important factor in inventory analysis. Also, price and stock have an important role to attract more customers in the competitive business situations. Trade credit policy is another important role in inventory analysis. We have combined these three factors together in a two-warehouse inventory model and represented it mathematically. In addition, we have added deteriorating factor of our proposed problem with price- and stock-dependent demand under partial backlogged shortage and solved. The frequency of advertisement is considered constant for a year in this paper. The proposed model is highly nonlinear in nature. Due to highly nonlinearity, we could not find the closed form solution. In this paper, trade credit facility is taken in the perspective of retailer, and all the possible cases and subcases of the model are discussed and solved using lingo 10.0 software. The results of sensitivity analysis prove the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  2. An EOQ model of time quadratic and inventory dependent demand for deteriorated items with partially backlogged shortages under trade credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar; Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema

    2017-07-01

    In this paper a single buyer, single supplier inventory model with time quadratic and stock dependent demand for a finite planning horizon has been studied. Single deteriorating item which suffers shortage, with partial backlogging and some lost sales is considered. Model is divided into two scenarios, one with non permissible delay in payment and other with permissible delay in payment. Latter is called, centralized system, where supplier offers trade credit to retailer. In the centralized system cost saving is shared amongst the two. The objective is to study the difference in minimum costs borne by retailer and supplier, under two scenarios including the above mentioned parameters. To obtain optimal solution of the problem the model is solved analytically. Numerical example and a comparative study are then discussed supported by sensitivity analysis of each parameter.

  3. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  4. Item and response-category functioning of the Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27: Rasch partial credit model

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    Jafari Peyman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of the study was to determine whether the Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27 has the optimal number of response category to measure health-related quality of life (HRQoL in children and adolescents. Moreover, we aimed to determine if all the items contributed adequately to their own domain. Findings The Persian version of the KIDSCREEN-27 was completed by 1083 school children and 1070 of their parents. The Rasch partial credit model (PCM was used to investigate item statistics and ordering of response categories. The PCM showed that no item was misfitting. The PCM also revealed that, successive response categories for all items were located in the expected order except for category 1 in self- and proxy-reports. Conclusions Although Rasch analysis confirms that all the items belong to their own underlying construct, response categories should be reorganized and evaluated in further studies, especially in children with chronic conditions.

  5. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  6. Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance

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    Anisa Caja

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn; so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

  7. Factors Affecting the Behavior of University Community to Use Credit Card

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    Maya Sari

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to gain insights and tested the factors that influence credit cards usage in university community of UPI through Theory of Planned Behavior model approach. Using Path Analysis to explain the direct and indirect influence of attitude, subjective norm and behavioral control to intention and behavior of credit card usage. The results showed all respondents have a positive attitude towards credit cards usage, with high influence of subjective norm, high behavior control, high intention to use credit cards and all respondents used credit cards wisely. There was positive and significant effect either simultaneously or partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavior control toward the intention to use credit card. The partial test results showed behavioral attitude has the greatest influence on the intention to use credit card. There was a positive and significant influence both simultaneously and partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control on default-risk debt behavior. The partial results showed that attitude gives the greatest influence on default debt risk behavior. The result also proved there was a positive and significant influence of the intention to use credit card on default debt risk behavior.

  8. Measuring positive and negative affect in older adults over 56 days: comparing trait level scoring methods using the partial credit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbacher, Monica K; Schmidt, Karen M; Boker, Steven M; Bergeman, Cindy S

    2012-01-01

    Positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) are important constructs in health and well-being research. Good longitudinal measurement is crucial to conducting meaningful research on relationships between affect, health, and well-being across the lifespan. One common affect measure, the PANAS, has been evaluated thoroughly with factor analysis, but not with Racsh-based latent trait models (RLTMs) such as the Partial Credit Model (PCM), and not longitudinally. Current longitudinal RLTMs can computationally handle few occasions of data. The present study compares four methods of anchoring PCMs across 56 occasions to longitudinally evaluate the psychometric properties of the PANAS plus additional items. Anchoring item parameters on mean parameter values across occasions produced more desirable results than using no anchor, using first occasion parameters as anchors, or allowing anchor values to vary across occasions. Results indicated problems with NA items, including poor category utilization, gaps in the item distribution, and a lack of easy-to-endorse items. PA items had much more desirable psychometric qualities.

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Using R and WinBUGS to fit a generalized partial credit model for developing and evaluating patient-reported outcomes assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuelin; Baser, Ray

    2012-08-15

    The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced the final guidelines on the development and validation of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assessments in drug labeling and clinical trials. This guidance paper may boost the demand for new PRO survey questionnaires. Henceforth, biostatisticians may encounter psychometric methods more frequently, particularly item response theory (IRT) models to guide the shortening of a PRO assessment instrument. This article aims to provide an introduction on the theory and practical analytic skills in fitting a generalized partial credit model (GPCM) in IRT. GPCM theory is explained first, with special attention to a clearer exposition of the formal mathematics than what is typically available in the psychometric literature. Then, a worked example is presented, using self-reported responses taken from the international personality item pool. The worked example contains step-by-step guides on using the statistical languages r and WinBUGS in fitting the GPCM. Finally, the Fisher information function of the GPCM model is derived and used to evaluate, as an illustrative example, the usefulness of assessment items by their information contents. This article aims to encourage biostatisticians to apply IRT models in the re-analysis of existing data and in future research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. An endogenous model of the credit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jianmin; Sui, Xin; Li, Shouwei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an endogenous credit network model of firm-bank agents is constructed. The model describes the endogenous formation of firm-firm, firm-bank and bank-bank credit relationships. By means of simulations, the model is capable of showing some obvious similarities with empirical evidence found by other scholars: the upper-tail of firm size distribution can be well fitted with a power-law; the bank size distribution can be lognormally distributed with a power-law tail; the bank in-degrees of the interbank credit network as well as the firm-bank credit network fall into two-power-law distributions.

  12. Penskalaan Butir Format Respons Pilihan dan Respons Bebas Berdasarkan Model Rasch dan Partial Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eko Hariadi

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian melihat pengaruh jumlah parameter butir, kategori respons bebas (RB, pengaruh sampel terhadap akurasi estimasi parameter kemampuan untuk menghasilkan estimasi yang stabil dan pengaruh pembobotan butir RP dan butir RB terhadap kesalahan baku. Penelitian dalam dua tahap, simulasi menggunakan 30 kondisi dengan replikasi 50 dengan variabel panjang tes, jumlah kategori, dan jumlah parameter butir, dan analisis deskriptif, dilanjutkan penerapan penskalaan gabungan butir tipe respons pilihan (rp dan butir respons bebas (rb pada konstruksi tes elektronika yang terdiri 40 butir pilihan ganda dan 4 butir jawaban tersusun, 3 butir memiliki lima kategori jawaban dan 1 butir dengan 4 kategori jawaban, melibatkan 355 siswa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan: ukuran sampel kurang berpengaruh pada root mean square error atau (RSME> dan korelasi antara 9 dengan 0, namun berpengaruh terhadap akurasi estimasi parameter butir pilihan ganda (/>/y,dan parameter butir respons tersusun (3^- Jumlah parameter butir berpengaruh terhadap parameter kemampuan, tetapi tidak berpengaruh terhadap akurasi dari b^, dan S„,. Estimasi dari parameter tingkat kesulitan butir jawaban tersusun tiga kategori lebih akurat daripada butir jawaban tersusun lima kategori. Estimasi tahan {robust untuk parameter kesulitan butir jawaban tersusun 5 kategori memerlukan sampel minimal 250 responden, sedangkan untuk butir respons tersusun 3 kategori memerlukan sampel minimal 100 responden. Estimasi parameter kemampuan dari skor total (0^^ tidak sama dengan rata-rata jumlah tbeta dari masing-masing subtes (0^ + 0CR. Theta dari tes yang dikalibrasi bersama-sama berbeda dengan theta dari total subtes yang dikalibrasi secara terpisah. Korelasi kemampuan yang mengunakan pembobotan dan kemampuan tanpa pembobotan mempunyai suatu rentang dari 0,988 sampai 0,948. Kata kunci: penyekaiaan, model rash dan partial credit.

  13. STOCHASTIC MODELING OF OPTIMIZED CREDIT STRATEGY OF A DISTRIBUTING COMPANY ON THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Boychuk

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The activity of distribution companies is multifaceted. Ihey establish contacts with producers and consumers, determine the range of prices of medicines, do promotions, hold stocks of pharmaceuticals and take risks in their further selling.Their internal problems are complicated by the political crisis in the country, decreased purchasing power of national currency, and the rise in interest rates on loans. Therefore the usage of stochastic models of dynamic systems for the research into optimizing the management of pharmaceutical products distribution companies taking into account credit payments is of great current interest. A stochastic model of the optimal credit strategy of a pharmaceutical distributor in the market of pharmaceutical products has been constructed in the article considering credit payments and income limitations. From the mathematical point of view the obtained problem is the one of stochastic optimal control where the amount of monetary credit is the control and the amount of pharmaceutical product is the solution curve. The model allows to identify the optimal cash loan and the corresponding optimal quantity of pharmaceutical product that comply with the differential model of the existing quantity of pharmaceutical products in the form of Ito; the condition of the existing initial stock of pharmaceutical products; the limitation on the amount of credit and profit received from the product selling and maximize the average integral income. The research of the stochastic optimal control problem involves the construction of the left process of crediting with determination of the shift point of that control, the choice of the right crediting process and the formation of the optimal credit process. It was found that the optimal control of the credit amount and the shift point of that control are the determined values and don’t depend on the coefficient in the Wiener process and the optimal trajectory of the amount of

  14. Supply chain model with price- and trade credit-sensitive demand under two-level permissible delay in payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giri, B. C.; Maiti, T.

    2013-05-01

    This article develops a single-manufacturer and single-retailer supply chain model under two-level permissible delay in payments when the manufacturer follows a lot-for-lot policy in response to the retailer's demand. The manufacturer offers a trade credit period to the retailer with the contract that the retailer must share a fraction of the profit earned during the trade credit period. On the other hand, the retailer provides his customer a partial trade credit which is less than that of the manufacturer. The demand at the retailer is assumed to be dependent on the selling price and the trade credit period offered to the customers. The average net profit of the supply chain is derived and an algorithm for finding the optimal solution is developed. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the coordination policy of the supply chain and examine the sensitivity of key model-parameters.

  15. A Macroeconomic Model of Credit Risk in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Illanes

    Full Text Available In this paper we evaluate credit risk of the economy as a whole, aiming at the study of the financial stability. This analysis uses as proxy the credit granted by the banking system. We use a non-linear parametric model based on Merton's structural framework for the analysis of the risk associated to a loan portfolio. In this model, default occurs when the return of an economic agent falls under certain threshold which depends on different macroeconomic variables. We use this model to assess the credit risk module in stress tests for the local banking system. We also estimate the "elasticities" of credit categories correspondig to corporate credit and consumer credit, both in national currency and american dollars. We obtain the parameters for the model using maximum likelihood, where the likelihood function contains a random latent factor which is assumed to follow a normal distribution.

  16. Statistical credit risk assessment model of small and very small enterprises for Lithuanian credit unions

    OpenAIRE

    Špicas, Renatas

    2017-01-01

    While functioning in accordance with the new, business and efficiency-oriented operating model, credit unions develop and begin functioning outside the community. It is universally recognised in scientific literature that as credit unions expand their activities beyond a community, social relations with credit union members weaken and the credit unions lose their social control element, which help them to better assess and manage information asymmetry and credit risk. So far, the analysis of ...

  17. A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting-Qiang Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

  18. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  19. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  20. Construction and Application Research of Isomap-RVM Credit Assessment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangrong Tong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit assessment is the basis and premise of credit risk management systems. Accurate and scientific credit assessment is of great significance to the operational decisions of shareholders, corporate creditors, and management. Building a good and reliable credit assessment model is key to credit assessment. Traditional credit assessment models are constructed using the support vector machine (SVM combined with certain traditional dimensionality reduction algorithms. When constructing such a model, the dimensionality reduction algorithms are first applied to reduce the dimensions of the samples, so as to prevent the correlation of the samples’ characteristic index from being too high. Then, machine learning of the samples will be conducted using the SVM, in order to carry out classification assessment. To further improve the accuracy of credit assessment methods, this paper has introduced more cutting-edge algorithms, applied isometric feature mapping (Isomap for dimensionality reduction, and used the relevance vector machine (RVM for credit classification. It has constructed an Isomap-RVM model and used it to conduct financial analysis of China's listed companies. The empirical analysis shows that the credit assessment accuracy of the Isomap-RVM model is significantly higher than that of the Isomap-SVM model and slightly higher than that of the PCA-RVM model. It can correctly identify the credit risks of listed companies.

  1. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  2. Optimal replenishment and credit policy in supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit with time- and credit-sensitive demand involving default risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahata, Puspita; Mahata, Gour Chandra; Kumar De, Sujit

    2018-03-01

    Traditional supply chain inventory modes with trade credit usually only assumed that the up-stream suppliers offered the down-stream retailers a fixed credit period. However, in practice the retailers will also provide a credit period to customers to promote the market competition. In this paper, we formulate an optimal supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit policy with default risk consideration. Here, the demand is assumed to be credit-sensitive and increasing function of time. The major objective is to determine the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution to the presented model are examined, and an easy method is also shown to find the optimal inventory policies of the considered problem. Finally, numerical examples and sensitive analysis are presented to illustrate the developed model and to provide some managerial insights.

  3. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  4. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  5. Graphical Rasch models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Svend; Christensen, Karl Bang

    Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models......Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models...

  6. A Pruning Neural Network Model in Credit Classification Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajiao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, credit classification models are widely applied because they can help financial decision-makers to handle credit classification issues. Among them, artificial neural networks (ANNs have been widely accepted as the convincing methods in the credit industry. In this paper, we propose a pruning neural network (PNN and apply it to solve credit classification problem by adopting the well-known Australian and Japanese credit datasets. The model is inspired by synaptic nonlinearity of a dendritic tree in a biological neural model. And it is trained by an error back-propagation algorithm. The model is capable of realizing a neuronal pruning function by removing the superfluous synapses and useless dendrites and forms a tidy dendritic morphology at the end of learning. Furthermore, we utilize logic circuits (LCs to simulate the dendritic structures successfully which makes PNN be implemented on the hardware effectively. The statistical results of our experiments have verified that PNN obtains superior performance in comparison with other classical algorithms in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

  7. Credit concession through credit scoring: Analysis and application proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oriol Amat

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The study herein develops and tests a credit scoring model which can help financial institutions in assessing credit requests.  Design/methodology/approach: The empirical study has the objective of answering two questions: (1 Which ratios better discriminate the companies based on their being solvent or insolvent? and (2 What is the relative importance of these ratios? To do this, several statistical techniques with a multifactorial focus have been used (Multivariate Analysis of Variance, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit Models. Several samples of companies have been used in order to obtain and to test the model.  Findings: Through the application of several statistical techniques, the credit scoring model has been proved to be effective in discriminating between good and bad creditors.  Research limitations:  This study focuses on manufacturing, commercial and services companies of all sizes in Spain; Therefore, the conclusions may differ for other geographical locations. Practical implications:  Because credit is one of the main drivers of growth, a solid credit scoring model can help financial institutions assessing to whom to grant credit and to whom not to grant credit. Social implications: Because of the growing importance of credit for our society and the fear of granting it due to the latest financial turmoil, a solid credit scoring model can strengthen the trust toward the financial institutions assessment’s.  Originality/value: There is already a stream of literature related to credit scoring. However, this paper focuses on Spanish firms and proves the results of our model based on real data. The application of the model to detect the probability of default in loans is original.

  8. Production inventory model for two-level trade credit financing under the effect of preservation technology and learning in supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Kumar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the inventory model for a retailer under two levels of trade credit to reflect the supply chain management. Supplier offers trade credit period of M to the retailer while in turn retailer provides a trade credit period of N to his/her customers. The supplier is willing to provide the retailer a full trade credit period for payments and the retailer offers the partial trade credit period to his/her customers. Here, selling items are considered as perishable items such as fruits, fresh fishes, gasoline, photographic films, etc. so that its potential worth decreases. It is assumed that decay in potential worth of items can be increased by using preservation technology. The demand is considered as the function of selling price and trade credit. Ordering cost can be reducing due to learning by doing phenomenon. By applying convex fractional programming results, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions of an optimal solution. Some theorems are developed to determine retailer’s optimal ordering policies and numerical examples are given to illustrate these theorems. In addition, some managerial insights from the numerical examples are also concluded.

  9. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  10. Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 23 (2010), s. 1-23 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova - GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Credit Risk * Mortgage * Delinquency Rate * Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution * Normal Distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/gapko-modeling a distribution of mortgage credit losses-ies wp.pdf

  11. Formation of borrower’s bank credit scoring integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.V. Lysenok

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article proposes the borrower’s bank credit scoring model that is of particular relevance in an unstable world and Ukrainian financial markets. The essence of this integrated model is the consistent definition of indicators, which analyze the financial and economic situation and development of scoring that allows to calculate overall index, that is, the integral factor of credit scoring level of the bank to calculate which one uses the formed set of factors characterizing riskiness, profitability and liquidity of the banking institution. The author determines the factors according to their functional purpose; the former ones are divided into four groups: capital adequacy, loan portfolio quality, profitability and liquidity. Each group consists of four indicators; each indicator is assigned thresholds to determine the appropriate credit scoring level of the bank for one or another direction. The higher is the value of the integral factor, the more efficient and less risky is the financial and economic activity of banks and the higher is their credit scoring level. The study concludes that the proposed model for bank credit scoring differs with its transparency and clarity due to use in its implementation only public information. The disadvantages include the presence of the subjective factor in assigning a certain number of points based on expert and normative methods.

  12. Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf

  13. A Model Fit Statistic for Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Tie; Wells, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    Investigating the fit of a parametric model is an important part of the measurement process when implementing item response theory (IRT), but research examining it is limited. A general nonparametric approach for detecting model misfit, introduced by J. Douglas and A. S. Cohen (2001), has exhibited promising results for the two-parameter logistic…

  14. Retailer's inventory system in a two-level trade credit financing with selling price discount and partial order cancelations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangam, A.

    2015-06-01

    In today's fast marketing over the Internet or online, many retailers want to trade at the same time and change their marketing strategy to attract more customers. Some of the customers may decide to cancel their orders partially with a retailer due to various reasons such as increase in customer's waiting time, loss of customer's goodwill on retailer's business, attractive promotional schemes offered by other retailers etc. Even though there is a lag in trading and order cancelation, this paper attempts to develop the retailer's inventory model with the effect of order cancelations during advance sales period. The retailer announces a price discount program during advance sales period to promote his sales and also he offers trade credit financing during the sales periods. The retailer availing trade credit period from his supplier offers a permissible delay period to his customers. The customer who gets an item has allowed paying on or before the permissible delay period which is accounted from the buying time rather than the start period of inventory sales. This accounts for significant changes in the calculations of interest payable and interest earned by the retailer. The retailer's total cost is minimized so as to find out the optimal replenishment cycle time and price discount policies through a solution procedure. The results derived in mathematical theorems are implemented in numerical examples and sensitivity analyses on several inventory parameters are obtained.

  15. Retailer's inventory system in a two-level trade credit financing with selling price discount and partial order cancellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangam, A.

    2014-02-01

    In today's fast marketing over the Internet or online, many retailers want to trade at the same time and change their marketing strategy to attract more customers. Some of the customers may decide to cancel their orders partially with a retailer due to various reasons such as increase in customer's waiting time, loss of customer's goodwill on retailer's business, and attractive promotional schemes offered by other retailers. Even though there is a lag in trading and order cancellation, this paper attempts to develop the retailer's inventory model with the effect of order cancellations during advance sales period. The retailer announces a price discount program during advance sales period to promote his sales and also offers trade credit financing during the sales periods. The retailer availing trade credit period from his supplier offers a permissible delay period to his customers. The customer who gets an item is allowed to pay on or before the permissible delay period which is accounted from the buying time rather than from the start period of inventory sales. This accounts for significant changes in the calculations of interest payable and interest earned by the retailer. The retailer's total cost is minimized so as to find out the optimal replenishment cycle time and price discount policies through a solution procedure. The results derived in mathematical theorems are implemented in numerical examples, and sensitivity analyses on several inventory parameters are obtained.

  16. Internal Model of Commercial Bank as an Instrument for Measuring Credit Risk of the Borrower in Relation to Financial Performance (Credit Scoring and Bankruptcy Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belás Jaroslav

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Commercial banks generally use different methods and procedures for managing credit risk. The internal rating method in which the client has an important position in the process of granting credit provides a comprehensive assessment of client creditworthiness. The aim of this article is to analyze selected theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of internal rating models of commercial banks within the context of models that measures financial performance and to make a comparison of results of real - rating models which are used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The results of the chosen credit scoring and bankruptcy methods on selected companies from segments of small and medium-sized companies are presented.

  17. Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 10 (2012), s. 1005-1023 ISSN 0013-3035 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : credit risk * mortgage * delinquency rate * generalized hyperbolic distribution * normal distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.194, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/smid-modeling a distribution of mortgage credit losses.pdf

  18. Cash or Credit? Compensation in Psychology Studies: Motivation Matters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holly J. Bowen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is common practice for psychology researchers to recruit their sample of participants from the undergraduate student population. Participants are typically compensated with partial course credit or a monetary payment. The current study reveals that the motivation to participate in a study (cash versus course credit can relate to performance on a behavioral task of rewarded memory. In Experiment 1, undergraduate participants were recruited and compensated for their time with either partial course credit or cash. Potential performance-based cash rewards were earned during a rewarded memory task, where correct recognition of half the stimuli was worth a high reward and the other half a low reward. Memory for high reward items was better than low reward items, but only for the cash group. The credit group did not modulate their performance based on the value of the stimuli. In Experiment 2, undergraduates were compensated with partial course credit for their time and given the opportunity to earn a bonus credit for performance on a memory test. The findings were in line with the results from the credit group of Experiment 1, suggesting that the modulation of performance in the cash group of Experiment 1 cannot be accounted for by congruency between motivation to participate and reward for task performance. Of methodological importance, the findings indicate that recruiting and compensating participants with cash versus course credit may influence the results on a rewarded memory task. This factor should be taken into consideration in studies of reward motivation.

  19. 18 CFR 367.2550 - Account 255, Accumulated deferred investment tax credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., Accumulated deferred investment tax credits. 367.2550 Section 367.2550 Conservation of Power and Water... 255, Accumulated deferred investment tax credits. This account must be credited with all investment tax credits deferred by companies that have elected to follow deferral accounting, partial or full...

  20. Using Cutting-Edge Tree-Based Stochastic Models to Predict Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Halteh

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is a critical issue that affects banks and companies on a global scale. Possessing the ability to accurately predict the level of credit risk has the potential to help the lender and borrower. This is achieved by alleviating the number of loans provided to borrowers with poor financial health, thereby reducing the number of failed businesses, and, in effect, preventing economies from collapsing. This paper uses state-of-the-art stochastic models, namely: Decision trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient boosting to add to the current literature on credit-risk modelling. The Australian mining industry has been selected to test our methodology. Mining in Australia generates around $138 billion annually, making up more than half of the total goods and services. This paper uses publicly-available financial data from 750 risky and not risky Australian mining companies as variables in our models. Our results indicate that stochastic gradient boosting was the superior model at correctly classifying the good and bad credit-rated companies within the mining sector. Our model showed that ‘Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE turnover’, ‘Invested Capital Turnover’, and ‘Price over Earnings Ratio (PER’ were the variables with the best explanatory power pertaining to predicting credit risk in the Australian mining sector.

  1. Credit risk assessment model for Jordanian commercial banks: Neural scoring approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Ali Bekhet

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the increase in the number of non-performing loans and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use data mining tools to support credit decisions. Artificial neural networks represent a new family of statistical techniques and promising data mining tools that have been used successfully in classification problems in many domains. This paper proposes two credit scoring models using data mining techniques to support loan decisions for the Jordanian commercial banks. Loan application evaluation would improve credit decision effectiveness and control loan office tasks, as well as save analysis time and cost. Both accepted and rejected loan applications, from different Jordanian commercial banks, were used to build the credit scoring models. The results indicate that the logistic regression model performed slightly better than the radial basis function model in terms of the overall accuracy rate. However, the radial basis function was superior in identifying those customers who may default.

  2. Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jun Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

  3. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Anagnostou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

  4. Credit Spread Modeling: Macro-financial versus HOC Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Dudaković

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to throw light on the relationship between credit spread changes and past changes of U.S. macro-financial variables when invariants do not have Gaussian distribution. The first part presents the empirical analysis which is based on 10-year AAA corporate bond yields and 10-year Treasury bond yields. Explanatory variables include lagged U.S. leading index, Russell 2000 returns, BBB bond price changes interest rate swaps, exchange rates EUR/ USD, Repo rates, S& P 500 returns and S&P 500 volatility, Treasury bill changes, liquidity index-TRSW, LIBOR rates, Moody’s default rates; credit spread volatility and Treasury bills volatility. The proposed dynamical model explains 73% of the U.S. credit spread variance for the period 1999:07-2013:07. The second part of the article introduces the parameter estimation method based on higher order cumulants. It is demonstrated empirically that much of the information about variability of Credit Spread can be extracted from higher order cumulant function (85%.

  5. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  6. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  7. Advanced empirical estimate of information value for credit scoring models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Řezáč

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit scoring, it is a term for a wide spectrum of predictive models and their underlying techniques that aid financial institutions in granting credits. These methods decide who will get credit, how much credit they should get, and what further strategies will enhance the profitability of the borrowers to the lenders. Many statistical tools are avaiable for measuring quality, within the meaning of the predictive power, of credit scoring models. Because it is impossible to use a scoring model effectively without knowing how good it is, quality indexes like Gini, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statisic and Information value are used to assess quality of given credit scoring model. The paper deals primarily with the Information value, sometimes called divergency. Commonly it is computed by discretisation of data into bins using deciles. One constraint is required to be met in this case. Number of cases have to be nonzero for all bins. If this constraint is not fulfilled there are some practical procedures for preserving finite results. As an alternative method to the empirical estimates one can use the kernel smoothing theory, which allows to estimate unknown densities and consequently, using some numerical method for integration, to estimate value of the Information value. The main contribution of this paper is a proposal and description of the empirical estimate with supervised interval selection. This advanced estimate is based on requirement to have at least k, where k is a positive integer, observations of socres of both good and bad client in each considered interval. A simulation study shows that this estimate outperform both the empirical estimate using deciles and the kernel estimate. Furthermore it shows high dependency on choice of the parameter k. If we choose too small value, we get overestimated value of the Information value, and vice versa. Adjusted square root of number of bad clients seems to be a reasonable compromise.

  8. Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Křivánková

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

  9. Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.

  10. A user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble for broadband network new media service supervision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang; Cao, San-xing; Lu, Rui

    2012-04-01

    This paper proposes a user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble aiming to solve the problem that users illegally spread pirated and pornographic media contents within the user self-service oriented broadband network new media platforms. Its idea is to do the new media user credit assessment by establishing indices system based on user credit behaviors, and the illegal users could be found according to the credit assessment results, thus to curb the bad videos and audios transmitted on the network. The user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble proposed by this paper which integrates the advantages that swarm intelligence clustering is suitable for user credit behavior analysis and K-means clustering could eliminate the scattered users existed in the result of swarm intelligence clustering, thus to realize all the users' credit classification automatically. The model's effective verification experiments are accomplished which are based on standard credit application dataset in UCI machine learning repository, and the statistical results of a comparative experiment with a single model of swarm intelligence clustering indicates this clustering ensemble model has a stronger creditworthiness distinguishing ability, especially in the aspect of predicting to find user clusters with the best credit and worst credit, which will facilitate the operators to take incentive measures or punitive measures accurately. Besides, compared with the experimental results of Logistic regression based model under the same conditions, this clustering ensemble model is robustness and has better prediction accuracy.

  11. Financial performance as a decision criterion of credit scoring models selection [doi: 10.21529/RECADM.2017004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Alves Silva

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to show the importance of the use of financial metrics in decision-making of credit scoring models selection. In order to achieve such, we considered an automatic approval system approach and we carried out a performance analysis of the financial metrics on the theoretical portfolios generated by seven credit scoring models based on main statistical learning techniques. The models were estimated on German Credit dataset and the results were analyzed based on four metrics: total accuracy, error cost, risk adjusted return on capital and Sharpe index. The results show that total accuracy, widely used as a criterion for selecting credit scoring models, is unable to select the most profitable model for the company, indicating the need to incorporate financial metrics into the credit scoring model selection process. Keywords Credit risk; Model’s selection; Statistical learning.

  12. Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Song

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the qagriculture, rural areas and farmersq problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this paper contains four aspects: the classification and characteristics of credit risk, the problems and factors of credit risk, the model and evaluation of credit risk, the countermeasures and suggestions of credit risk. This paper reviews the research of credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives from the above four aspects, and makes a brief summary.

  13. Joint replenishment and credit policies under two levels of trade credit financing when demand and bad-debt loss depends upon credit period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggarawal K.K.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In practice, a firm usually receives trade credit financing from its supplier on the purchase of inventory. Similarly, in order to meet competition and generate credit sales over and above cash sales, the firm also gives credit period to their customers. However, the decision of granting credit period may have a disintegrating effect on cash sales apart from generating new credit sales because some of the cash customers may switch to credit purchase. In addition, despite of the best credit granting policies and collection practices, the firm may incurs some amount of bad debt losses because a certain fraction of buyers will undoubtedly be unable to pay off their debt obligations and become bad debt loss to the firm. In this paper, using discounted cash flow (DCF approach, a mathematical model is developed to jointly determine optimal inventory and credit policies under two levels of trade credit financing when demand and bad-debt losses are dependent on credit period. The objective of the model is to maximize the present value of firm’s net profit per unit time by jointly optimizing the replenishment interval and date-terms credit period. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and the results are discussed.

  14. Modelling local government unit credit risk in the Republic of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Posedel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to determine possible indicators that affect local unit credit risk and investigate their effect on default (credit risk of local government units in Croatia. No system for the estimation of local unit credit risk has been established in Croatia so far causing many practical problems in local unit borrowing. Because of the specific nature of the operations of local government units and legislation that does not allow local government units to go into bankruptcy, conventional methods for estimating credit risk are not applicable, and the set of standard potential determinants of credit risk has to be expanded with new indicators. Thus in the paper, in addition to the usual determinants of credit risk, the hypothesis of the influence of political factors on local unit credit risk in Croatia is also tested out, with the use of a Tobit model. Results of econometric analysis show that credit risk of local government units in Croatia is affected by the political structure of local government, the proportion of income tax and surtax in operating revenue, the ratio of net operating balance, net financial liabilities and direct debt to operating revenue, as well as the ratio of debt repayment and cash, and direct debt and operating revenue.

  15. Survey of credit risk models in relation to capital adequacy framework for financial institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poomjai Nacaskul

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article (i iterates what is meant by credit risks and the mathematical-statistical modelling thereof, (ii elaborates the conceptual and technical links between credit risk modelling and capital adequacy framework for financial institutions, particularly as per the New Capital Accord (Basel II’s Internal Ratings-Based (IRB approach, (iii proffer a simple and intuitive taxonomy on contemporary credit risk modelling methodologies, and (iv discuses in some details a number of key models pertinent, in various stages of development, to various application areas in the banking and financial sector.

  16. An Application of Robust Method in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Credit Card Debt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amira Azmi, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Salleh, Rohayu Mohd; Hamzah, Nur Shamsidah Amir

    2018-04-01

    Credit card is a convenient alternative replaced cash or cheque, and it is essential component for electronic and internet commerce. In this study, the researchers attempt to determine the relationship and significance variables between credit card debt and demographic variables such as age, household income, education level, years with current employer, years at current address, debt to income ratio and other debt. The provided data covers 850 customers information. There are three methods that applied to the credit card debt data which are multiple linear regression (MLR) models, MLR models with least quartile difference (LQD) method and MLR models with mean absolute deviation method. After comparing among three methods, it is found that MLR model with LQD method became the best model with the lowest value of mean square error (MSE). According to the final model, it shows that the years with current employer, years at current address, household income in thousands and debt to income ratio are positively associated with the amount of credit debt. Meanwhile variables for age, level of education and other debt are negatively associated with amount of credit debt. This study may serve as a reference for the bank company by using robust methods, so that they could better understand their options and choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference regarding to the credit card debt.

  17. Boundedly rational credit cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Sáez, María

    1996-01-01

    We propose an evolutionary model of a credit market. We show that the economy exhibits credit cycles. The model predicts dynamics which are consistent with some evidence about the Great Depression. Real shocks trigger episodes of credit--crunch which are observed in the process of adjustment towards the post shock equilibrium.

  18. Two-echelon competitive integrated supply chain model with price and credit period dependent demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2016-04-01

    This study considers a two-echelon competitive supply chain consisting of two rivaling retailers and one common supplier with trade credit policy. The retailers hope that they can enhance their market demand by offering a credit period to the customers and the supplier also offers a credit period to the retailers. We assume that the market demand of the products of one retailer depends not only on their own market price and offering a credit period to the customers, but also on the market price and offering a credit period of the other retailer. The supplier supplies the product with a common wholesale price and offers the same credit period to the retailers. We study the model under a centralised (integrated) case and a decentralised (Vertical Nash) case and compare them numerically. Finally, we investigate the model by the collected numerical data.

  19. Analysis of credit linked demand in an inventory model with varying ordering cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banu, Ateka; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have considered an economic order quantity model for deteriorating items with two-level trade credit policy in which a delay in payment is offered by a supplier to a retailer and also an another delay in payment is offered by the retailer to his/her all customers. Here, it is proposed that the demand function is dependent on the length of the customer's credit period and also the duration of offering the credit period. In this article, it is considered that the retailer's ordering cost per order depends on the number of replenishment cycles. The objective of this model is to establish a deterministic EOQ model of deteriorating items for the retailer to decide the position of customers credit period and the number of replenishment cycles in finite time horizon such that the retailer gets the maximum profit. Also, the model is explained with the help of some numerical examples.

  20. Credit Risk Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zamore, Stephen; Ohene Djan, Kwame; Alon, Ilan

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web...... of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified...... into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying...

  1. Inventory and Credit Decisions under Day-Terms Credit Linked Demand and Allowance for Bad Debts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. Aggarwal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to stimulate demand of their product, firms generally give credit period to their customers. However, selling on credit exposes the firms to the additional dimension of bad debts expense (i.e., customer’s default. Moreover, credit period through its influence on demand becomes a determinant of inventory decisions and inventory sold on credit gets converted to accounts receivable indicating the interaction between the two. Since inventory and credit decisions are interrelated, inventory decisions must be determined jointly with credit decisions. Consequently, in this paper, a mathematical model is developed to determine inventory and credit decisions jointly. The demand rate is assumed to be a logistic function of credit period. The accounts receivable carrying cost along with an explicit consideration of bad debt expense which have been often ignored in previous models are incorporated in the present model. The discounted cash flow approach (DCF is used to develop the model and the objective is to maximize the present value of the firm’s net profit per unit time. Finally, numerical example and sensitivity analysis have been done to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  2. MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT LOSSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya P. Anoshkina

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the problem of credit loss management topical for modern Russian science and banking practice. The bank’s lending activity is an integral and the most profitable sphere of banking activity. Banks need to take credit risks inherent in their core business and minimize their impact through the establishment of advanced risk management systems. The study, reflected in the present paper, has been conducted in order to determine approaches to the organization of credit loss management in banking. Analysis of the system of management of credit risks and credit losses has shown that they have different scope, object and purpose. In this connection, there is an objective necessity to create a special subsystem for the management of credit losses in banks. On the basis of common bank approaches to credit risk management, the paper develops models of credit loss management: a multi-level management model in the area of ‘operational-tactical-strategic management’ and a functional management model in the area of ‘technology-execution-control’. These models are important for the modern theory and practice of banking, as they allow the bank to manage credit losses on the entire time horizon of the management process, thus opening a wide range of opportunities for the creation and implementation of large-scale programs, as well as specific techniques. This study allows drawing a conclusion about the need to consider control credit losses as a strictly regulated multi-level process, in which each division is assigned with specific objectives, tasks, functions, formally enshrined in the relevant lists, job descriptions and other legal documents.

  3. A dynamic model of unsecured credit

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel R. Sanches

    2010-01-01

    The author studies the terms of credit in a competitive market in which sellers (lenders) are willing to repeatedly finance the purchases of buyers (borrowers) by engaging in a credit relationship. The key frictions are: (i) the lender is unable to observe the borrower's ability to repay a loan; (ii) the borrower cannot commit to any long-term contract; (iii) it is costly for the lender to contact a borrower and to walk away from a contract; and (iv) transactions within each credit relationsh...

  4. Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

    Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

  5. Quantifying credit portfolio losses under multi-factor models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Colldeforns-Papiol (Gemma); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractIn this work, we investigate the challenging problem of estimating credit risk measures of portfolios with exposure concentration under the multi-factor Gaussian and multi-factor t-copula models. It is well-known that Monte Carlo (MC) methods are highly demanding from the computational

  6. Binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from trade receivables in non-financial sector entities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Remenarić

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In July 2014, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB published International Financial Reporting Standard 9 Financial Instruments (IFRS 9. This standard introduces an expected credit loss (ECL impairment model that applies to financial instruments, including trade and lease receivables. IFRS 9 applies to annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018 in the European Union member states. While the main reason for amending the current model was to require major banks to recognize losses in advance of a credit event occurring, this new model also applies to all receivables, including trade receivables, lease receivables, related party loan receivables in non-financial sector entities. The new impairment model is intended to result in earlier recognition of credit losses. The previous model described in International Accounting Standard 39 Financial instruments (IAS 39 was based on incurred losses. One of the major questions now is what models to use to predict expected credit losses in non-financial sector entities. The purpose of this paper is to research the application of the current impairment model, the extent to which the current impairment model can be modified to satisfy new impairment model requirements and the applicability of the binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from accounts receivable.

  7. An application of locally linear model tree algorithm with combination of feature selection in credit scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siami, Mohammad; Gholamian, Mohammad Reza; Basiri, Javad

    2014-10-01

    Nowadays, credit scoring is one of the most important topics in the banking sector. Credit scoring models have been widely used to facilitate the process of credit assessing. In this paper, an application of the locally linear model tree algorithm (LOLIMOT) was experimented to evaluate the superiority of its performance to predict the customer's credit status. The algorithm is improved with an aim of adjustment by credit scoring domain by means of data fusion and feature selection techniques. Two real world credit data sets - Australian and German - from UCI machine learning database were selected to demonstrate the performance of our new classifier. The analytical results indicate that the improved LOLIMOT significantly increase the prediction accuracy.

  8. COMPENSATORY INTEREST SETTLEMENT AND CREDIT BANKING MORATORIUM

    OpenAIRE

    Avelino Sánchez, Esteban Marino

    2014-01-01

    First is explained the reasons for this article, it mentions the specific legal rules that support the settlement of interest on the credit operations of companies in the financial system with end users, and then presents the average interest rates of some operations credit. Then we present the formula for calculating interest, and illustrates its application with examples 1 and 2 (the simplest). The following is, in examples 3 and 4, the calculation of interest with imputation of partial pay...

  9. CREDIT SYSTEM AND CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMS

    OpenAIRE

    Turgay GECER

    2012-01-01

    Credit system is an integrated architecture consisted of financial information, credit rating, credit risk management, receivables and credit insurance systems, credit derivative markets and credit guarantee programs. The main purpose of the credit system is to provide the functioning of all credit channels and to make it easy to access of credit sources demanded by all of real and legal persons in any economic system. Credit guarantee program, the one of prominent elements of the credit syst...

  10. Exchange credit risk: Measurement and implications on the stability of partially dollarized financial systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernesto Mordecki

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Some emergent economies present a high financial dollarization in loans and deposits, generating a specific risk in the banking activity. We quantify this exchange credit risk as the price of an option equivalent to this loan, and discuss the financial stability implications due to the (implicit issuance of these options. The exchange rate is modeled through a Levy process. The depth of the market depends on the type of the currencies involved. Whenever possible, we depart from option prices to calibrate a model, like in the EUR/USD market. But if the market is not liquid, as the USD/UYU market, we provide alternative pricing methodologies.

  11. Dynamic Diversification in Corporate Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Jin, Xisong

    We characterize diversification in corporate credit using a new class of dynamic copula models which can capture dynamic dependence and asymmetry in large samples of firms. We also document important differences between credit spread and equity return dependence dynamics. Modeling a decade...... the crisis and remain high as well. The most important shocks to credit dependence occur in August of 2007 and in August of 2011, but interestingly these dates are not associated with significant changes to median credit spreads....

  12. 49 CFR 536.4 - Credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL ECONOMY CREDITS § 536.4 Credits. (a) Type and vintage... category, and model year of origin (vintage). (b) Application of credits. All credits earned and applied are calculated, per 49 U.S.C. 32903(c), in tenths of a mile per gallon by which the average fuel...

  13. The Multi-state Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.; Monteiro, A.

    2008-01-01

    A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of the

  14. Application of Vine Copulas to Credit Portfolio Risk Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Geidosch

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we demonstrate the superiority of vine copulas over conventional copulas when modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio. We show statistical and economic implications of replacing conventional copulas by vine copulas for a subportfolio of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the S&P 500 companies, respectively. Our study includes D-vines and R-vines where the bivariate building blocks are chosen from the Gaussian, the t and the Clayton family. Our findings are (i the conventional Gauss copula is deficient in modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio and economic capital is seriously underestimated; (ii D-vine structures offer a better statistical fit to the data than classical copulas, but underestimate economic capital compared to R-vines; (iii when mixing different copula families in an R-vine structure, the best statistical fit to the data can be achieved which corresponds to the most reliable estimate for economic capital.

  15. Partially composite Higgs models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alanne, Tommi; Buarque Franzosi, Diogo; Frandsen, Mads T.

    2018-01-01

    We study the phenomenology of partially composite-Higgs models where electroweak symmetry breaking is dynamically induced, and the Higgs is a mixture of a composite and an elementary state. The models considered have explicit realizations in terms of gauge-Yukawa theories with new strongly...... interacting fermions coupled to elementary scalars and allow for a very SM-like Higgs state. We study constraints on their parameter spaces from vacuum stability and perturbativity as well as from LHC results and find that requiring vacuum stability up to the compositeness scale already imposes relevant...... constraints. A small part of parameter space around the classically conformal limit is stable up to the Planck scale. This is however already strongly disfavored by LHC results. in different limits, the models realize both (partially) composite-Higgs and (bosonic) technicolor models and a dynamical extension...

  16. Trade credit: Elusive insurance of firm growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bams, Dennis; Bos, Jaap; Pisa, Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    Firms depend heavily on trade credit. This paper introduces a trade credit network into a structural model of the economy. In an empirical analysis of the model, we find that trade credit is an elusive insurance: as long as a firm is financially unconstrained and times are good, more trade credit

  17. Modernization of credit relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Volosovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays it is essential to modernize credit relations in the conditions of global economy transformations. This is due to the influence of integration processes on credit relations and transformation of the risks inherent in the credit field. The purpose of this article is to develop measures that help to improve the efficiency of interaction of credit relations’ participants. Modernization of credit relations is based on the interaction of its main and indirect subjects who belong to the subsystems of loans granting, deposits attraction and provision of related services. Its goal is to pass from extensive to intensive model of interaction between the subjects of credit relations. Components of the credit relations modernization are the following: institutional modernization, which is based on the interaction of credit relations’ subjects, and ensures the development of competition in all credit market’s segments, the creation of its corresponding infrastructure, qualitative change in the approaches of regulation and supervision; technological modernization, which involves the formation of joint products on the credit market and the formation of an integrated informational and analytical system. In the result of the credit relations’ modernization it is expected to achieve synergies between the subjects of credit relations, that will lead to changes in the business architecture of the financial market.

  18. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  19. Determinants of SME credit worthiness under Basel rules: the value of credit history information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Dainelli

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Basel III Accord has reportedly had an impact on SME financing. In this paper, we aim to highlight the determinants of SME credit worthiness. We use credit history in addition to financial ratios and “hybrid” indicators that have been built by mixing credit history with financial statement data. We develop a failure prediction logit model on 187 Italian SMEs. The use of short-term credit lines is the most important variable. Contrary to common understanding, capitalization levels do not affect ratings. Lastly, credit worthiness is sensitive to sale profitability.

  20. An inventory model with a new credit drift: Flexible trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Prakash Tyagi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In most of the published articles dealing with optimal order quantity model under permissible delay in payments, it is assumed that the supplier only put forwards fully permissible delay in payments if retailer ordered a bulky sufficient quantity otherwise permissible delay in payments would not be permitted. Practically, in competitive market environments and recession phases of business, every supplier wants to attract more retailers by the help of providing good facilities for trading. Necessity of order quantity may put a negative pressure on supplier’s demand. So, within the economic order quantity (EOQ framework the main purpose of this paper is to broaden this extreme case by introducing a new credit policy, Flexible Trade Credit Policy (FTCP, for supplier which can help him provide more free space of trading to retailers. This policy, after adopting by suppliers, not only provides attractive trading environments for retailers but also enhances the demand of supplier due to the large number of new retailers. Here in, under this policy, an inventory system is investigated as a cost minimization problem to establish the retailer’s optimal inventory cycle time and optimal order quantity. Three theorems are established to describe and to lighten optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. Finally, numerical examples are considered to illustrate all these theorems and managerial insights are given based on considered numerical examples.

  1. Partially ordered models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, R.; Deveaux, V.

    2010-01-01

    We provide a formal definition and study the basic properties of partially ordered chains (POC). These systems were proposed to model textures in image processing and to represent independence relations between random variables in statistics (in the later case they are known as Bayesian networks).

  2. Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models

    OpenAIRE

    Addo , Peter ,; Guegan , Dominique; Hassani , Bertrand

    2018-01-01

    URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2018.03 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Due to the hyper technology associated to Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending financial institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision making and transparency. In...

  3. 12 CFR Appendix to Part 215 - Section 5200 of the Revised Statutes Total Loans and Extensions of Credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... extensions of credit and not upon any full or partial recourse endorsement or guarantee by the transferor... Loans and Extensions of Credit Appendix to Part 215 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF... Statutes Total Loans and Extensions of Credit (a)(1) The total loans and extensions of credit by a national...

  4. OPTIMAL STOCK MODELING FOR NON-FOODS RETAILER SELLING ON-CREDIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Manakhov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the problem of retail stock optimization within mo-nopolistic competition market while selling non-food goods to customers on-credit. Optimization model has been developed and appropriate technique of stock volume planning has been introduced

  5. Partially molten magma ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirley, D.N.

    1983-01-01

    The properties of the lunar crust and upper mantle can be explained if the outer 300-400 km of the moon was initially only partially molten rather than fully molten. The top of the partially molten region contained about 20% melt and decreased to 0% at 300-400 km depth. Nuclei of anorthositic crust formed over localized bodies of magma segregated from the partial melt, then grew peripherally until they coverd the moon. Throughout most of its growth period the anorthosite crust floated on a layer of magma a few km thick. The thickness of this layer is regulated by the opposing forces of loss of material by fractional crystallization and addition of magma from the partial melt below. Concentrations of Sr, Eu, and Sm in pristine ferroan anorthosites are found to be consistent with this model, as are trends for the ferroan anorthosites and Mg-rich suites on a diagram of An in plagioclase vs. mg in mafics. Clustering of Eu, Sr, and mg values found among pristine ferroan anorthosites are predicted by this model

  6. Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

    2018-05-01

    Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

  7. Mathematical Modelling of Intraretinal Oxygen Partial Pressure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: The aim of our present work is to develop a simple steady state model for intraretinal oxygen partial pressure distribution and to investigate the effect of various model parameters on the partial pressure distribution under adapted conditions of light and darkness.. Method: A simple eight-layered mathematical model ...

  8. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  9. Credit card spending limit and personal finance: system dynamics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Pejić Bach

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit cards have become one of the major ways for conducting cashless transactions. However, they have a long term impact on the well being of their owner through the debt generated by credit card usage. Credit card issuers approve high credit limits to credit card owners, thereby influencing their credit burden. A system dynamics model has been used to model behavior of a credit card owner in different scenarios according to the size of a credit limit. Experiments with the model demonstrated that a higher credit limit approved on the credit card decreases the budget available for spending in the long run. This is a contribution toward the evaluation of action for credit limit control based on their consequences.

  10. APPLICATION OF KMV MODEL TO ASSESS CREDIT RISK OF INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taishin A. A.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The problem of credit risk is relevant for the bank. The purpose of scientific research - to develop a technique of adaptation and application of the model for the evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs. The proposed method of evaluation credit risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs has many advantages. Automation of calculations, based on plausible assumptions, will significantly reduce the time to process the customer's request. The article contains analysis of the KMV model based on the up-to-date results of the theory. The author investigates the possibility of modification, generalization of the model and practical implementation of the risk estimate of default entrepreneur KMV model using software package Visual Basic for Application on the example Management reporting of the entrepreneur. Showing the features of its application in the light of the modern achievements in the theory and practice of financial analysis. In this article suggested the finished result of evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs, for risk assessment offered more precise recommendations for the practical use of KMV as a basic tool.

  11. Three stage trade credit policy in a three-layer supply chain-a production-inventory model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2014-09-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal replenishment lot size of supplier and optimal production rate of manufacturer under three levels of trade credit policy for supplier-manufacturer-retailer supply chain. The supplier provides a fixed credit period to settle the accounts to the manufacturer, while the manufacturer gives a fixed credit period to settle the account to the retailer and the retailer, in turn, also offers a credit period to each of its customers to settle the accounts. We assume that the supplier supplies the raw material to the manufacturer and sends back the defective raw materials to the outside supplier after completion of inspection at one lot with a sales price. The system always produces good items in the model. Also, we consider the idle times of supplier and manufacturer. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the behaviour and application of the model with graphical simulation.

  12. Avaliação da aplicabilidade de um modelo de credit scoring com varíaveis sistêmicas e não-sistêmicas em carteiras de crédito bancário rotativo de pessoas físicas An evaluation on the applicability of a credit scoring model, with systemic and non-systemic variables in revolving bank credit portfolio for individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Odálio dos Santos

    2007-08-01

    capability. Likewise, a more significant historical exposition of the banks to insolvency risk is being observed, such as the risk of not getting paid (partially or totally and the revolving credit borrowed by consumers. Considering the size and the importance of this market to the great commercial banks and to the economy as a whole, the scope of this research comprises the following points: 1. detailing the processes of subjective and objective credit analysis carried out by the main domestic private banks; 2. approaching the selective function of interest rates in revolving credits; 3. highlighting the main characteristics of credit scoring models; and 4. proposing a model of credit scoring for revolving credits. This model is based on systemic and non-systemic variables and directed to the reduction of insolvency risk. The applicability of the credit scoring model proposed in a sample, extracted from the consumers credit portfolio which belongs to an important medium size Brazilian private commercial bank (Bank X - fictitious name, presented a satisfactory accuracy level in the identification of prospective (96% and non-prospective (92% clients, which led to the conclusion that it included and considered adequately the representative variables of borrowers’ payment capability.

  13. Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Evangelista Régis

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

  14. Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

    to the real economy and not to bond prices can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in credit markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed spreads...

  15. A Model for Partial Kantian Cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Kordonis, Ioannis

    2016-01-01

    This work presents a game theoretic model to describe game situations in which there is a partial cooperation among the players. Specifically, we assume that the players partially follow Kant's "Categorical Imperative". The model is stated for games with a continuum of players and the basic assumption made is that the participants consider that they belong to virtual groups in which they optimize their actions as if they were bound to follow the same strategy. The relation with the Nash, (Ben...

  16. 29 CFR 4206.7 - Amount of credit in plans using the direct attribution method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... TO A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL § 4206.7 Amount of credit in plans using the direct attribution method. In a plan that uses the direct attribution allocation method described in section 4211(c)(4) of ERISA, the... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Amount of credit in plans using the direct attribution...

  17. Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martey Addo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

  18. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  19. Assessing Credit with Equity : A CEV Model with Jump to Default

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campi, L.; Polbennikov, S.Y.; Sbuelz, A.

    2005-01-01

    Unlike in structural and reduced-form models, we use equity as a liquid and observable primitive to analytically value corporate bonds and credit default swaps.Restrictive assumptions on the .rm.s capital structure are avoided.Default is parsimoniously represented by equity value hitting the zero

  20. Analisis Model Peramalan Status Kredit Kendaraan Bermotor pada Astra Credit Companies (ACC Cabang X Periode 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomy G. Soemapradja

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to increasing revenue, credit and financial institution, especially, automotive financing, gave lower interest rate. This, of course, will impact to the costumer with higher opportunity to have their dream which facilitated by those institutions. Despites to all economic risks and sales targets, credit and financial institutions have to empower their credit monitoring to anticipate earlier of credit defaults. Inspired by Altman’s research in 1968, about predicting bankruptcy of US companies, this research has purpose to determine which variable that significantly to the car loan status at Astra Credit Companies (ACC, and further continue to arrange prediction model of loan status and measure it’s accuracy level.. The statistic test shows there are 2 independent variables affect to dependent variable significantly, where model’s accuracy level achieves 100%.

  1. The level of influence of trust, commitment, cooperation, and power in the interorganizational relationships of Brazilian credit cooperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Maria Martins

    Full Text Available Abstract This article aims to analyze the level of influence of trust, commitment, cooperation, and power in the interrelationships of individual credit cooperatives and their central organization in Brazil. The quantitative and descriptive research was developed in unique credit unions linked to the Central Bank of Brazil and the Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling, with the estimation through partial least squares. The results obtained for the coefficients of determination (R2 of the endogenous latent variables confirmed the assumptions found in the theoretical models of Morgan and Hunt (1994 and Coote, Forrest, and Tam (2003. Statistical significance was also found in the relationships between power and trust, commitment and cooperation, trust and commitment, trust and cooperation, and power and commitment. However, in this study the relationship between power and commitment characterized the significance and was positive between the individual credit cooperatives and their central organization. This is in line with the understanding that power is the solution to resolving conflicts. The research identifies how the constructs of trust, commitment, cooperation, and power show relevance to the alignment of relations between individual credit cooperatives and their central organization.

  2. Variance Function Partially Linear Single-Index Models1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Heng; Liang, Hua; Carroll, Raymond J

    2015-01-01

    We consider heteroscedastic regression models where the mean function is a partially linear single index model and the variance function depends upon a generalized partially linear single index model. We do not insist that the variance function depend only upon the mean function, as happens in the classical generalized partially linear single index model. We develop efficient and practical estimation methods for the variance function and for the mean function. Asymptotic theory for the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model is developed. Simulations illustrate the results. An empirical example involving ozone levels is used to further illustrate the results, and is shown to be a case where the variance function does not depend upon the mean function.

  3. The Function of Credit Scheme to Improve Family Income among Beef Cattle Farmers in Central Java Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, E.; Ekowati, T.; Roessali, W.; Gayatri, S.

    2018-02-01

    The aims of study were: (i) identify of beef cattle fattening credit scheme, (ii) calculating and analyze of beef cattle farmers’ income, (iii) analyze of factors influencing beef cattle credit scheme towards farmer’s income. The research was held in five regencies in Central Java Province. Beef cattle fattening farm was standardized as an elementary unit. Survey method was used, while Two Stage Cluster Purposive Sampling was used for determining of sample. Data were analyzed using statistical method of quantitative descriptive and inferential statistics in term of income analysis and multiple linear regression models. The result showed that farmers used their own capital to run the farm. The average amount was IDR 10,769,871. Kredit Ketahanan Pangan dan Energi was credit scheme which was dominantly access by farmers. The average credit was IDR 23,312,200/farmer with rate of credit equal to 6.46%, the time of credit returning equal to 24.60 monthand the prediction of average collateral equal to IDR 35,800,00. The average of farmers’ income was IDR 4,361,611.60/2.96 head of beef cattle/fattening period. If the labour cost did not calculate as a cost production, hence the farmer’ income was IDR 7,608,630.41 or in other word the farmer’ income increase 74.44%. Factors of credit scheme which partially significant influence to the farmers’ income were number of own capital usage and value of credit collateral. Meanwhile, name of credit scheme, financing institution as a creditor, amount of credit, rate of credit scheme and time of returning credit were not significantly influence towards farmers’ income.

  4. CRank: A Credit Assessment Model in C2C e-Commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiqiang; Xie, Xiaoqin; Pan, Haiwei; Han, Qilong

    An increasing number of consumers not only purchase but also resell merchandise through C2C web sites. One of the greatest concerns for the netizens is the lacking of a fair credit assessment system. Trust and trustworthiness are crucial to the survival of online markets. Reputation systems that rely on feedback from traders help to sustain the trust. And reputation systems provide one of the ways of building trusts online. In this chapter, we investigate a credit assessment model, CRank, for the members in the context of e-market systems, such as Alibaba, eBay, to solve such problem as how to choose a credible business partner when the customer wants to purchase some products from the Internet. CRank makes use of feedback profile made up of ranks from other users as well as an overall feedback rating for the user based on the idea of PageRank. This model can be used to build a trustable relation network among business participants.

  5. Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2008-01-01

    We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

  6. Higher order saddlepoint approximations in the Vasicek portfolio credit loss model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, X.; Oosterlee, C.W.; van der Weide, J.A.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper utilizes the saddlepoint approximation as an efficient tool to estimate the portfolio credit loss distribution in the Vasicek model. Value at Risk (VaR), the risk measure chosen in the Basel II Accord for the evaluation of capital requirement, can then be found by inverting the loss

  7. Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

    2017-01-01

    calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

  8. A Bayesian Analysis of a Random Effects Small Business Loan Credit Scoring Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick J. Farrell

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important aspects of credit scoring is constructing a model that has low misclassification rates and is also flexible enough to allow for random variation. It is also well known that, when there are a large number of highly correlated variables as is typical in studies involving questionnaire data, a method must be found to reduce the number of variables to those that have high predictive power. Here we propose a Bayesian multivariate logistic regression model with both fixed and random effects for small business loan credit scoring and a variable reduction method using Bayes factors. The method is illustrated on an interesting data set based on questionnaires sent to loan officers in Canadian banks and venture capital companies

  9. Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on

  10. Monetary policy and credit conditions: new evidence.

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Ongena

    1995-01-01

    A number of recent papers seek to distinguish between "money" and "credit" theories of the transmission of monetary disturbances using asymmetric information arguments. In credit models money causes output not only through the real interest rate but also through the availability of bank credit. The research described in this paper extends the work of Kashyap, Stein and Wilcox (1993) who construct a model that incorporates a relationship benefit to bank borrowing and then test the implications...

  11. OPTIMUM VOLUME OF BANK RESERVE: FORECASTING OF OVERDUE CREDIT INDEBTEDNESS USING COPULA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazakova K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article propose to consider the possibility of RLUF-copulas application for the creation of joint distributions of overdue credit indebtedness ranks with macroeconomic indicators for the purpose of indebtedness forecasting and also for the definition of optimum volumes of reserve requirements for the corresponding losses. In this research the comparative analysis of multivariate distributions of RLUF-copula estimation with such classical copulas, as FGM-copula, Frank's copula and Gauss's copula is made. In the article the method of maximum likelihood is used for receiving estimates of model parameters. In case of RLUF-copula Bayesian estimates of parameters are received using the Metropolis algorithm with random volatility. Forecasting of bank reserve volumes for all received models is executed in the form of random sample generation by the means of the algorithm of acceptance-deviation for the creation of the corresponding sample of joint distribution using the copula density function. As the result of playing of hundred possible scenarios of indebtedness volumes is obtained the 95 % confidence level for the possible volume of credit indebtedness which can fully act as the optimum volume of reserve requirements for the corresponding credit losses.

  12. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

  13. Quantifying Correlation Uncertainty Risk in Credit Derivatives Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Turfus

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a simple but practical methodology for the quantification of correlation risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and credit valuation adjustment (CVA, where the correlation between rates and credit is often uncertain or unmodelled. We take the rates model to be Hull–White (normal and the credit model to be Black–Karasinski (lognormal. We summarise recent work furnishing highly accurate analytic pricing formulae for credit default swaps (CDS including with defaultable Libor flows, extending this to the situation where they are capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive therefrom explicit expressions showing how the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s can be captured in analytic formulae that are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we crucially take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled parameters.

  14. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  15. The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pönkä, Harri

    are useful predictors of US recessions over and above the control variables both in and out of sample. Especially the excess bond premium, capturing the cyclical changes in the relationship between default risk and credit spreads, is found to be a powerful predictor. Overall, models that combine credit......We study the role of credit in forecasting US recession periods with probit models. We employ both classical recession predictors and common factors based on a large panel of financial and macroeconomic variables as control variables. Our findings suggest that a number of credit variables...

  16. Credit-proofing fundamentals for a solid credit policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lydiatt, I. [KeySpan Energy Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    This Power Point presentation presented the basics of a credit policy with reference to corporate objectives, governance, credit definitions, subjective/objective elements, quantification of full risk, management, monitoring, reporting and gate-keeping processes. Options for a credit policy were described as being approval authority grids, confidentiality issues, credit scoring, corporate risk levels, follow-up collection calling, and procedures on unapproved exposures. Recommendations for setting risk and credit limits were also presented with a note emphasizing that in the past 6 months credit evaluation processes have had to deal with the media risk, a new risk that has not been seen before. This risk can be addressed by careful monitoring of stock prices. The paper also presented recommendations for what to look for as indicators and how to deal with risk in volatile price periods. Credit tools for volatile times were described. 1 tab.

  17. Credit-proofing fundamentals for a solid credit policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydiatt, I.

    2003-01-01

    This Power Point presentation presented the basics of a credit policy with reference to corporate objectives, governance, credit definitions, subjective/objective elements, quantification of full risk, management, monitoring, reporting and gate-keeping processes. Options for a credit policy were described as being approval authority grids, confidentiality issues, credit scoring, corporate risk levels, follow-up collection calling, and procedures on unapproved exposures. Recommendations for setting risk and credit limits were also presented with a note emphasizing that in the past 6 months credit evaluation processes have had to deal with the media risk, a new risk that has not been seen before. This risk can be addressed by careful monitoring of stock prices. The paper also presented recommendations for what to look for as indicators and how to deal with risk in volatile price periods. Credit tools for volatile times were described. 1 tab

  18. MODEL PENSKORAN PARTIAL CREDIT PADA BUTIR MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BIDANG FISIKA

    OpenAIRE

    Wasis Wasis

    2013-01-01

    Tujuan penelitian ini menghasilkan model penskoran politomus untuk respons butir multiple true-false, sehingga dapat mengestimasi secara lebih akurat kemampuan di bidang fisika. Pengembangan penskoran menggunakan Four-D model dan diuji akurasinya melalui penelitian empiris dan simulasi. Penelitian empiris menggunakan 15 butir multiple true-false yang diambil dari soal UMPTN tahun 1996-2006 dan dikenakan pada 410 mahasiswa baru FMIPA Universitas Negeri Surabaya angkatan tahun 2007. Respons pes...

  19. Partial Differential Equations Modeling and Numerical Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Glowinski, Roland

    2008-01-01

    This book is dedicated to Olivier Pironneau. For more than 250 years partial differential equations have been clearly the most important tool available to mankind in order to understand a large variety of phenomena, natural at first and then those originating from human activity and technological development. Mechanics, physics and their engineering applications were the first to benefit from the impact of partial differential equations on modeling and design, but a little less than a century ago the Schrödinger equation was the key opening the door to the application of partial differential equations to quantum chemistry, for small atomic and molecular systems at first, but then for systems of fast growing complexity. Mathematical modeling methods based on partial differential equations form an important part of contemporary science and are widely used in engineering and scientific applications. In this book several experts in this field present their latest results and discuss trends in the numerical analy...

  20. The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Landschoot, A.

    2003-01-01

    Although there is a broad literature on structural credit risk models, there has been little empirical testing of these models.In this paper we examine the term structure of credit spreads on euro corporate bonds and the empirical validation of structural credit risk models.The latter provide a

  1. Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Allen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

  2. Impact of Economic Crisis on Credit Insurance Market in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florina VÎRLANUTA

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Bank Insurance phenomenon can not be attributed primarily or banks or insurance institutions. Near the two sectors was due to mutations occurring in supply and demand for financial services. Convergence bankers and insurers are determined by common platform for each country of local influence by supervisors and reforms at the central level. Credit insurance has emerged as a necessity stemming from the fact that most trade agreements concluded in circumstances in which payment is partially or completely after delivery of the goods or services covered by the agreement, so the payment delayed or selling on credit.

  3. CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS IN THE MECHANISM OF REDISTRIBUTION OF CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Solodka

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the article the economic nature and the functioning of CDS in terms of efficient redistribution of credit risk. The features of the dynamics of the nominal volume of the world market CDS, the gross market value and net market value of the CDS. Proved that more objective indicators of total credit risk shenerovanoho financial institutions are gross market value of the CDS and the net market value of CDS. We consider the variety and scope of CDS. Studied objectivity CDS valuation depending on the basis for valuation of CDS. In the mechanism of functioning CDS credit event as defined default “subject matter”, the features of conventional and technical default. Noted that a credit event for the use of CDS may also restructuring the company, bankruptcy or downgrade economic entity. In the article the types of CDS, including Basket Default Swap and First-of- Basket-to-Default Swap. We consider the application of CDS, namely hedge the credit risk of the underlying asset, which issued CDS; hedging credit risk of other assets by CDS; speculative trading in CDS. Depending on the particular basis for valuation of CDS, investigated objective valuation based on the value of CDS hedging; valuation CDS, based on the intensity of default; CDS valuation based on credit rating; valuation CDS, based on the value of the company. Proved that hedging through CDS will be effective only for the low correlation between the default of the underlying asset and counterparty default on swaps. It is proved that the accuracy and redutsyrovanyh structural models strongly depends on the “a long history of trading” underlying assets, asset must have a long history of trading, be the subject of in-depth analysis of a wide range of analysts and traders.

  4. The Dilemmas over Credit Policy Management in a Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Gorczyńska

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper identifies the core dilemmas over the establishment of the credit policy in a company. It considers the general scope and basic stages of credit policy management and analyses each stage of credit policy in terms of decisive aspects. The main areas of concerns are discussed within the settlement of credit policy and its implementation with regard to the model of optimal credit policy. Scientific aim: The paper aims at constructing a unified model of issues rising dilemmas while setting and implementing the credit policy management. It also aims at identifying core decisive problems in each of these fields and at providing a structured questions framework. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on conceptual analysis and deduction of the literature and general review of issues related to credit policy management. It containts autors’ own view on the problems included in each stage of credit policy management. Findings: Credit policy management is a subject for numerous dilemmas. The main areas of concerns are related to: the decision about the goal of credit policy managemet with regard to its restrictiveness, the settlement of credit policy with regard to elements of credit policy, and finally the implementation with regard to the risk of bad debts occurrence. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc The establishment of credit policy in a company requires to balance contrary interests and thus involves wide variety of issues to be considered. The presented model of decisive problems might be applied in each company regardless to their size.

  5. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  6. CO2 credit or energy credit in emission trading?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, E.

    2002-01-01

    Emission trading is a good concept and approach to tackle global warming. However, what ''currency'' or ''credit'' should be used in the trading has remained a debatable topic. This paper proposed an ''Energy Credit'' concept as an alternative to the ''CO 2 credit'' that is currently in place. From the thermodynamic point of view, the global warming problem is an ''energy balance'' problem. The energy credit concept is thought to be more thermodynamically correct and tackles the core of the global warming problem more directly. The Energy credit concept proposed can be defined as: the credit to offset the extra energy trapped/absorbed in the earth (and its atmosphere) due to the extra anthropogenic emission (or other activities) by a country or company. A couple of examples are given in the paper to demonstrate the concept of the Energy credit and its advantages over the CO 2 credit concept. (author)

  7. Effectiveness of bank credit activity evaluation with application of economic and mathematic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeeva, G. M.; Zagladina, E. N.; Kadeeva, E. N.

    2018-05-01

    The paper presents data on the influence of the most significant factors having impact on the credit portfolio volume, as well as conducts correlation and regression analysis with the subsequent construction of the trend for a short period. Credit activity is understood as the bank activity in the formation of a credit portfolio. Considering the structure of the bank credit portfolio, it can be observed that it consists of credits granted by the bank particularly for legal entities, individuals and other banks. Herewith, it is necessary to understand that any decrease in the credit portfolio will adversely affect the financial stability and effectiveness of any commercial bank. Moreover, during crisis periods, the policy and practice of banks have been determined as quite aggressive and conducted as such with regard to interest rates. The dynamics of credit portfolio volume has been selected as an independent factor due to the reason that it can fully explain the current development situation and the effectiveness of the bank credit policy. Considering the dependent factors, their influence will be assessed by the credit portfolio volume indicator. The authors have distinguished the following ones among them: the volume of credits granted to individuals; the volume of credits granted to legal entities; the amount of overdue credits in the credit portfolio; bank investments in the securities; inflation; key rate.

  8. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  9. Optimal advanced credit releases in ecosystem service markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    BenDor, Todd K; Guo, Tianshu; Yates, Andrew J

    2014-03-01

    Ecosystem service markets are popular policy tools for ecosystem protection. Advanced credit releases are an important factor affecting the supply side of ecosystem markets. Under an advanced credit release policy, regulators give ecosystem suppliers a fraction of the total ecosystem credits generated by a restoration project before it is verified that the project actually achieves the required ecological thresholds. In spite of their prominent role in ecosystem markets, there is virtually no regulatory or research literature on the proper design of advanced credit release policies. Using U.S. aquatic ecosystem markets as an example, we develop a principal-agent model of the behavior of regulators and wetland/stream mitigation bankers to determine and explore the optimal degree of advance credit release. The model highlights the tension between regulators' desire to induce market participation, while at the same time ensuring that bankers successfully complete ecological restoration. Our findings suggest several simple guidelines for strengthening advanced credit release policy.

  10. The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    Structural models a la Merton (1974) imply that rms' risk premia in equity and credit markets are related. We explore this relation, using the joint crosssection of stock returns and risk premia estimated from forward credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Consistent with structural models, we nd...... that rms' equity returns and Sharpe ratios increase with estimated credit risk premia and that the returns of buying high and selling low credit risk premium rms cannot be explained by traditional risk factors. Credit risk premia contain equity-relevant information neither captured by risk-neutral nor...

  11. Transaction cost determinants of credit governance structures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper explores transaction cost determinants of credit governance structures (CGS) of commercial banks in Tanzania. Descriptive statistics, linear regression model, binary and multinomial logistic regression models were employed for analysis. Findings revealed four modes of credit governance structures that are ...

  12. Effects of Credit on Economic Growth, Unemployment and Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar

    2016-06-01

                  Effect of credit on economic growth, unemployment and poverty provides evidence from Indonesia on the role of banks credit for promoting economic growth and reducing both unemployment and poverty.  To document the link between banks credit and economic growth, we estimate a VAR model and variance decompositions of annual GDP per capita growth rates to examine what proxy measures of banks credit are most important in accounting for economic growth over time and how much they contribute to explaining economic growth.  We also estimate an ECM to document the relationship between banks credit to both unemployment and poverty.  This paper revealed bi-direction causality between banks credit and economic growth.  Banks credit promotes economic growth and economic growth affects credit depth and financial development.  Furthermore, banks credit is a growth accelerating factor on Indonesian economic growth.  Banks credit is an endogenous growth and a good predictor on Indonesian economy. Our estimation model explained that credit allocated by banks increases business escalation to the real sectors then promotes economic growth, decreases unemployment rate through increasing in labor demanded, increases income and then decrease poverty.  This overall transmission mechanism just occurred through presence of banks credit by increasing money supply to the real sectors, promotes growth and social welfare.   Keywords :  banks credit, economic growth, growth accelerating factor, poverty, unemployment   JEL Classification : E51, E52, E58

  13. Cooperative credit banks and regional growth: creation of a local development model and analysis of the «G. Toniolo» Cooperative Credit Bank in San Cataldo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Cermelli

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis has called into question not only the banking systems, but also the development model. Cooperative credit banks have returned to occupy a central role, demonstrating with his broad background that another way of providing financial services can exist. In Italy, cooperative credit banks are principal players in the banking economic system. One of those banks is the «G. Toniolo», which has become over the years a reference in the local banking system.Received: 07.06.2015Accepted: 30.07.2015

  14. Partial Orders and Fully Abstract Models for Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg, Uffe Henrik

    1990-01-01

    In this thesis sets of labelled partial orders are employed as fundamental mathematical entities for modelling nondeterministic and concurrent processes thereby obtaining so-called noninterleaving semantics. Based on different closures of sets of labelled partial orders, simple algebraic language...

  15. Grading the probabilities of credit default risk for Malaysian listed companies by using the KMV-Merton model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anuwar, Muhammad Hafidz; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    This paper provides an overview for the assessment of credit risk specific to the banks. In finance, risk is a term to reflect the potential of financial loss. The risk of default on loan may increase when a company does not make a payment on that loan when the time comes. Hence, this framework analyses the KMV-Merton model to estimate the probabilities of default for Malaysian listed companies. In this way, banks can verify the ability of companies to meet their loan commitments in order to overcome bad investments and financial losses. This model has been applied to all Malaysian listed companies in Bursa Malaysia for estimating the credit default probabilities of companies and compare with the rating given by the rating agency, which is RAM Holdings Berhad to conform to reality. Then, the significance of this study is a credit risk grade is proposed by using the KMV-Merton model for the Malaysian listed companies.

  16. Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guray Kucukkocaoglu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

  17. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  18. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

  19. Probabilistic assessment of dry transport with burnup credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lake, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    The general concept of probabilistic analysis and its application to the use of burnup credit in spent fuel transport is explored. Discussion of the probabilistic analysis method is presented. The concepts of risk and its perception are introduced, and models are suggested for performing probability and risk estimates. The general probabilistic models are used for evaluating the application of burnup credit for dry spent nuclear fuel transport. Two basic cases are considered. The first addresses the question of the relative likelihood of exceeding an established criticality safety limit with and without burnup credit. The second examines the effect of using burnup credit on the overall risk for dry spent fuel transport. Using reasoned arguments and related failure probability and consequence data analysis is performed to estimate the risks of using burnup credit for dry transport of spent nuclear fuel. (author)

  20. WHAT INFLUENCE CREDIT CARD DEBTS IN YOUNG CONSUMERS IN MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Shah ALAM; Ruzita Abdul RAHIM; Ridhwanul HAQ; Atiqur Rahman KHAN

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines empirically antecedents of the credit card debts in young consumers in Malaysia. We examine whether easy access to credit card, credit card related knowledge, aggressive promotion by credit card industry, low minimum payment requirement and attitude towards credit cards influence credit card debts in the younger generation. Regression model was used to meet the objectives. These findings based on a sample of 240 young credit card holders, show that the factors that affect ...

  1. Benefits of actinide-only burnup credit for shutdown PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, D.; Fuentes, E.; Kang, C.; Rivard, D.

    1998-02-01

    Owners of PWRs that are shutdown prior to resolution of interim storage or permanent disposal issues have to make difficult decisions on what to do with their spent fuel. Maine Yankee is currently evaluating multiple options for spent fuel storage. Their spent fuel pool has 1,434 assemblies. In order to evaluate the value to a utility of actinide-only burnup credit, analysis of the number of canisters required with and without burnup credit was made. In order to perform the analysis, loading curves were developed for the Holtec Hi-Star 100/MPC-32. The MPC-32 is hoped to be representative of future burnup credit designs from many vendors. The loading curves were generated using the actinide-only burnup credit currently under NRC review. The canister was analyzed for full loading (32 assemblies) and with partial loadings of 30 and 28 assemblies. If no burnup credit is used the maximum capacity was assumed to be 24 assemblies. this reduced capacity is due to the space required for flux traps which are needed to sufficiently reduce the canister reactivity for the fresh fuel assumption. Without burnup credit the 1,343 assemblies would require 60 canisters. If all the fuel could be loaded into the 32 assembly canisters only 45 canisters would be required. Although the actinide-only burnup credit approach is very conservative, the total number of canisters required is only 47 which is only two short of the minimum possible number of canisters. The utility is expected to buy the canister and the storage overpack. A reasonable cost estimate for the canister plus overpack is $500,000. Actinide-only burnup credit would save 13 canisters and overpacks which is a savings of about $6.5 million. This savings is somewhat reduced since burnup credit requires a verification measurement of burnup. The measurement costs for these assemblies can be estimated as about $1 million. The net savings would be $5.5 million

  2. Optimal pricing and replenishment policies for instantaneous deteriorating items with backlogging and trade credit under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundara Rajan, R.; Uthayakumar, R.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we develop an economic order quantity model to investigate the optimal replenishment policies for instantaneous deteriorating items under inflation and trade credit. Demand rate is a linear function of selling price and decreases negative exponentially with time over a finite planning horizon. Shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a profit maximization problem to determine the optimal selling price, optimal order quantity and optimal replenishment time. An easy-to-use algorithm is developed to determine the optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. We also provide optimal present value of profit when shortages are completely backlogged as a special case. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the algorithm provided to obtain optimal profit. And we also obtain managerial implications from numerical examples to substantiate our model. The results show that there is an improvement in total profit from complete backlogging rather than the items being partially backlogged.

  3. CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela BARBULESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

  4. Implied Materiality and Material Disclosures of Credit Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Eccles, Robert G; Youmans, Timothy John

    2015-01-01

    This first of three papers in our series on materiality in credit ratings will examine the materiality of credit ratings from an “implied materiality” and governance disclosure perspective. In the second paper, we will explore the materiality of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in credit ratings’ methodologies and introduce the concept of “layered materiality.” In the third paper, we will evaluate current and potential credit rating agency (CRA) business models based on our...

  5. Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

  6. Capital Requirements and Credit Rationing

    OpenAIRE

    Itai Agur

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the trade-off between financial stability and credit rationing that arises when increasing capital requirements. It extends the Stiglitz-Weiss model of credit rationing to allow for bank default. Bank capital structure then matters for lending incentives. With default and rationing endogenous, optimal capital requirements can be analyzed. Introducing bank financiers, the paper also shows that uninsured funding raises the sensitivity of rationing to capital requirements. In...

  7. Validation Techniques of the Intern Models for Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Moinescu

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The new own funds adequacy device, officialy named “ International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”, describes the most important benchmark framework for micro-prudential supervision at the moment. The publication of the final text in June 2004, after five years of deliberations, represents the result of multiple analyses and comments provided by all interested parties, banking supervision authorities, associations and credit institutions. Provided the development of complex methodologies of risk measurement and management, on a large scale, by credit institutions, simple and static rules of the first accord have become less and less relevant during the last years. And so, the need of setting up a own funds adequacy framework which is much more risk sensitive and provides incentives to credit institutions on what concerns the improvement of risk measurement and management systems was met by approval of the Basel II Accord, which will, therefore, lead to the strengthening of financial stability. The revisal of the Accord was mainly focused on the increase of risk analysis and internal measurement and the changes made to their estimation allow banks to create their own methodological framework to calculate capital requirements (also considering each credit institution’ risk appetite.

  8. FraudMiner: A Novel Credit Card Fraud Detection Model Based on Frequent Itemset Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. R. Seeja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an intelligent credit card fraud detection model for detecting fraud from highly imbalanced and anonymous credit card transaction datasets. The class imbalance problem is handled by finding legal as well as fraud transaction patterns for each customer by using frequent itemset mining. A matching algorithm is also proposed to find to which pattern (legal or fraud the incoming transaction of a particular customer is closer and a decision is made accordingly. In order to handle the anonymous nature of the data, no preference is given to any of the attributes and each attribute is considered equally for finding the patterns. The performance evaluation of the proposed model is done on UCSD Data Mining Contest 2009 Dataset (anonymous and imbalanced and it is found that the proposed model has very high fraud detection rate, balanced classification rate, Matthews correlation coefficient, and very less false alarm rate than other state-of-the-art classifiers.

  9. FraudMiner: a novel credit card fraud detection model based on frequent itemset mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeja, K R; Zareapoor, Masoumeh

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes an intelligent credit card fraud detection model for detecting fraud from highly imbalanced and anonymous credit card transaction datasets. The class imbalance problem is handled by finding legal as well as fraud transaction patterns for each customer by using frequent itemset mining. A matching algorithm is also proposed to find to which pattern (legal or fraud) the incoming transaction of a particular customer is closer and a decision is made accordingly. In order to handle the anonymous nature of the data, no preference is given to any of the attributes and each attribute is considered equally for finding the patterns. The performance evaluation of the proposed model is done on UCSD Data Mining Contest 2009 Dataset (anonymous and imbalanced) and it is found that the proposed model has very high fraud detection rate, balanced classification rate, Matthews correlation coefficient, and very less false alarm rate than other state-of-the-art classifiers.

  10. Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘春红

    2003-01-01

    With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

  11. Credit Monitoring – a Core of Credit Risk Management: Theory and Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiva Jurevičienė

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: Purpose of the article is to identify credit monitoring as a keystone of credit risk management in banks. CRM is widely discussed in scientific literature and in reports of institutions undertaking credit risk or supervisory bodies. However majority of such investigations are based on implementation of numerous quantitative or qualitative methods used for credit risk assessment before granting a loan or for credit portfolio risk management. There is a lack of information or investigations made on estimation of the need of credit monitoring in credit risk management process. Scientific aim: Scientific aim is to structure the early warning signs that reflect the condition of credits. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on analysis and resumption of various scientific and professional articles related to organization of credit process in banks. It combines results of assessments of credit monitoring importance in credit risk management process made by theoretical studies as well as investigation of experts. Findings: Finding of the article is presentation of credit monitoring tools that should be applied for corporate (and individual clients via modification of original credit agreement. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc Conclusion of the article is that credit monitoring is a keystone in credit risk management process. The purpose of credit monitoring is to detect in time possible worsening of the loan and to react (make changes in loan agreement. The simplest tool for credit monitoring is to identify early warning signs in time that could be assorted into four groups: EWS of business environment; EWS with regard to management, EWS regarding collateral, EWS in financial analysis. Limitation of investigation is impossibility of evaluation of importance of monitoring process in practice except investigation of experts (employees directly responsible for credit business.

  12. SEARCHING THE FACTORS HAVING CREDIT CARD: A SURVEY STUDY IN ERZURUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ERKAN OKTAY

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the factors related with having credit card in Erzurum have been searched by a logit model. There are demographic, social, cultural, and economic variables in the model. The final model is statistically significant. According to the model, job, average household income per month, payment method at shopping, usefulness of credit card and increasing the shopping tendency are statistically significant on having credit card.

  13. NCA & Credit Guarantees

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    stooppn

    purposes of the National Credit Act; what the definition of a credit guarantee set out ...... Scholtz et al National Credit Act in para 8.2.4; Scott et al Law of Commerce ..... Eitelberg E "Autonomy of Documentary Credit Undertakings in South African.

  14. Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Jin, Xisong

    We characterize dependence and tail dependence in corporate credit using a new class of dynamic copula models which can capture dynamic dependence and asymmetry in large samples of firms. We also document important differences between the dependence dynamics for credit spreads and equity returns...

  15. 26 CFR 1.35-1 - Partially tax-exempt interest received by individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Partially tax-exempt interest received by individuals. 1.35-1 Section 1.35-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES Credits Against Tax § 1.35-1 Partially tax-exempt interest received by...

  16. Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

    2018-03-01

    In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

  17. Credit scoring using ensemble of various classifiers on reduced feature set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahiya Shashi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit scoring methods are widely used for evaluating loan applications in financial and banking institutions. Credit score identifies if applicant customers belong to good risk applicant group or a bad risk applicant group. These decisions are based on the demographic data of the customers, overall business by the customer with bank, and loan payment history of the loan applicants. The advantages of using credit scoring models include reducing the cost of credit analysis, enabling faster credit decisions and diminishing possible risk. Many statistical and machine learning techniques such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks and Decision tree algorithms have been used independently and as hybrid credit scoring models. This paper proposes an ensemble based technique combining seven individual models to increase the classification accuracy. Feature selection has also been used for selecting important attributes for classification. Cross classification was conducted using three data partitions. German credit dataset having 1000 instances and 21 attributes is used in the present study. The results of the experiments revealed that the ensemble model yielded a very good accuracy when compared to individual models. In all three different partitions, the ensemble model was able to classify more than 80% of the loan customers as good creditors correctly. Also, for 70:30 partition there was a good impact of feature selection on the accuracy of classifiers. The results were improved for almost all individual models including the ensemble model.

  18. CREDIT RISK MINIMIZATION WAYS AND PRICING OF BANKING SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. E. Gladkova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate accounting of own expenses on rendering banking services and forming reasonable prices for them make it possible for commercial banks to adequately react to market situation changes. Credit risk minimization comprises: credit rationing (in Russia according to RF Central Bank norms; credit diversification; credit structuring; and forming reserves to cover respective bank risks (also in accordance with RF CB documents. Effective is bank credit hedging (insuring through credit derivatives. Most advanced at international finance markets are such risk minimization systems as Basel-II and IRBA. Pricing models based on individual assessment of each borrower’s risk class (Risk Based Pricing approach are widely used.

  19. Formal and Informal Credit Markets and Rural Credit Demand in China

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Sai; Guan, Zhengfei; Jin, Songqing

    2010-01-01

    Credit markets are an essential economic institution. In developing countries, particularly in countries undergoing rapid social and economic transition, it is important to identify emerging credit demand and institute credit supply in a timely manner to facilitate economic transformation. This research focuses on the evolving rural credit market in China, where borrowing from the social network has been common but the recent economic transition has made this informal credit market inadequate...

  20. Refundable Tax Credits

    OpenAIRE

    Congressional Budget Office

    2013-01-01

    In 1975, the first refundable tax credit—the earned income tax credit (EITC)—took effect. Since then, the number and cost of refundable tax credits—credits that can result in net payments from the government—have grown considerably. Those credits will cost $149 billion in 2013, CBO estimates, mostly for the EITC and the child tax credit.

  1. Partial-Order Reduction for GPU Model Checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neele, T.; Wijs, A.; Bosnacki, D.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Artho, C; Legay, A.; Peled, D.

    2016-01-01

    Model checking using GPUs has seen increased popularity over the last years. Because GPUs have a limited amount of memory, only small to medium-sized systems can be verified. For on-the-fly explicit-state model checking, we improve memory efficiency by applying partial-order reduction. We propose

  2. Cooperative credit systems: defence of the model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Sánchez Boza

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the role carried out by saving and credit cooperatives in Central America where they have gained momentum, mainly in the past ten years. Cooperatives of this type are called financial intermediation cooperatives due to the influence of various legislative regulations that have placed them in the context of international control, the type of economic activity they perform and the fact that they make profits from both public and private international entities which enable their growth.Many of these organisations can be commended. They are highly competitive on financial markets and strive to extend their profits to increasingly larger parts of the population while also searching for new products to benefit the sector of the population that has chosen the cooperative model as a means to progress in a sphere of equity and respect for the rights of their fellow men.Received: 31.05.2015Accepted: 17.07.2015

  3. Retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time in a supply chain for deteriorating items with up-stream and down-stream trade credits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahata, Gour Chandra

    2015-09-01

    In practice, the supplier often offers the retailers a trade credit period and the retailer in turn provides a trade credit period to her/his customer to stimulate sales and reduce inventory. From the retailer's perspective, granting trade credit not only increases sales and revenue but also increases opportunity cost (i.e., the capital opportunity loss during credit period) and default risk (i.e., the percentage that the customer will not be able to pay off his/her debt obligations). Hence, how to determine credit period is increasingly recognized as an important strategy to increase retailer's profitability. Also, the selling items such as fruits, fresh fishes, gasoline, photographic films, pharmaceuticals and volatile liquids deteriorate continuously due to evaporation, obsolescence and spoilage. In this paper, we propose an economic order quantity model for the retailer where (1) the supplier provides an up-stream trade credit and the retailer also offers a down-stream trade credit, (2) the retailer's down-stream trade credit to the buyer not only increases sales and revenue but also opportunity cost and default risk, and (3) the selling items are perishable. Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a profit maximization problem to determine the retailer's optimal replenishment decisions under the supply chain management. We then show that the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time not only exist but also are unique. We deduce some previously published results of other researchers as special cases. Finally, we use some numerical examples to illustrate the theoretical results.

  4. 75 FR 17976 - WNC Tax Credits 38, LLC, WNC Tax Credits 39, LLC, WNC Housing Tax Credits Manager, LLC and WNC...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-08

    ... Credits 38, LLC, WNC Tax Credits 39, LLC, WNC Housing Tax Credits Manager, LLC and WNC & Associates, Inc... collectively, the ``Funds''), WNC Housing Tax Credits Manager, LLC (the ``Manager'') and WNC & Associates, Inc... credit under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended. The Manager is a California limited liability...

  5. Introduction of Credit Derivatives and Valuation of Credit Default Swap

    OpenAIRE

    Han, Lu

    2006-01-01

    The credit derivative market was established at the beginning of the 1990s since the emergence of credit derivatives fits the rapid development of the whole derivatives market. However, compare to other derivative market, this market is still small and incomplete. As with other derivatives, credit derivatives can be used to either take more risk or hedge it, hence various credit derivatives instruments are accepted and widely used by market participants such as banks, insurance companies, etc...

  6. Partial chord diagrams and matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jørgen Ellegaard; Fuji, Hiroyuki; Manabe, Masahide

    In this article, the enumeration of partial chord diagrams is discussed via matrix model techniques. In addition to the basic data such as the number of backbones and chords, we also consider the Euler characteristic, the backbone spectrum, the boundary point spectrum, and the boundary length spe...

  7. Methodology of Credit Analysis Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slađana Neogradi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of research presented in this paper refers to the definition of methodology for the development of credit analysis in companies and its application in lending operations in the Republic of Serbia. With the developing credit market, there is a growing need for a well-developed risk and loss prevention system. In the introduction the process of bank analysis of the loan applicant is presented in order to minimize and manage the credit risk. By examining the subject matter, the process of processing the credit application is described, the procedure of analyzing the financial statements in order to get an insight into the borrower's creditworthiness. In the second part of the paper, the theoretical and methodological framework is presented applied in the concrete company. In the third part, models are presented which banks should use to protect against exposure to risks, i.e. their goal is to reduce losses on loan operations in our country, as well as to adjust to market conditions in an optimal way.

  8. Credit channels in Europe: a cross-country investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.J. DE BONDT

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available The work provides an economic analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Europe. The author reviews the literature on the money and credit view before describing cross-country differences in credit channel indicators and examining the existence of credit channels by distinguishing between households and firms. The relative importance of a bank lending and balance sheet channel is discussed by assessing impulse response functions from a vector error correction model.

  9. Teaching Modeling with Partial Differential Equations: Several Successful Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Joseph; Trubatch, David; Winkel, Brian

    2008-01-01

    We discuss the introduction and teaching of partial differential equations (heat and wave equations) via modeling physical phenomena, using a new approach that encompasses constructing difference equations and implementing these in a spreadsheet, numerically solving the partial differential equations using the numerical differential equation…

  10. Application of multidimensional IRT models to longitudinal data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Marvelde, J.M.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Van Landeghem, Georges; Van Damme, Jan

    2006-01-01

    The application of multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models to longitudinal educational surveys where students are repeatedly measured is discussed and exemplified. A marginal maximum likelihood (MML) method to estimate the parameters of a multidimensional generalized partial credit model

  11. Credit securitization and credit derivatives: Financial instruments and the credit risk management of middle market commercial loan portfolios

    OpenAIRE

    Henke, Sabine; Burghof, Hans-Peter; Rudolph, Bernd

    1998-01-01

    Banks increasingly recognize the need to measure and manage the credit risk of their loans on a portfolio basis. We address the subportfolio "middle market". Due to their specific lending policy for this market segment it is an important task for banks to systematically identify regional and industrial credit concentrations and reduce the detected concentrations through diversification. In recent years, the development of markets for credit securitization and credit derivatives has provided n...

  12. DID CREDIT CRUNCH CAUSE A COLLAPSE IN PRIVATE INVESTMENT?: TURKEY CASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgül CAMBAZOĞLU

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The economists have focused on credit crunch since 1990’s. The economists are not in consensus as to what constitutes the credit crunch. The differences in definitions come from the causes of credit contraction. Credit crunch is generally accepted as an enormous decline period in credit supply. Although the credit crunch is seen as a supply phenomenon, some economists define it as a demand issue. Investment declines significantly as result of an increase in credit rationing. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dependence of private investment on money and credit supply in Turkey. In other words, we want to quantify the effect of credit contraction in the banking sector on private fixed investment. VAR model is used to identify the existence of credit crunch through four economic variables: Private fixed investment, money stock (M2, bank loans to private sector and interest rate of commercial loans for the period ranging from 2003:01 to 2010:08. According to results of this study, it can be said that the credit crunch that we dealt with as a supply phenomenon leads to an investment collapse (slump in Turkey. The paper proceeds as follows: Section I provides theoretical background of credit channels and credit crunch. Section II summarizes recent empirical studies. Section III describes variables and discusses the empirical findings of the model. Section IV provides concluding remarks.

  13. Counterparty Credit Risk on the Blockchain

    OpenAIRE

    Starlander, Isak

    2017-01-01

    Counterparty credit risk is present in trades offinancial obligations. This master thesis investigates the up and comingtechnology blockchain and how it could be used to mitigate counterparty creditrisk. The study intends to cover essentials of the mathematical model expectedloss, along with an introduction to the blockchain technology. After modellinga simple smart contract and using historical financial data, it was evidentthat there is a possible opportunity to reduce counterparty credit r...

  14. On a Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Credit Rating Migration Risksand Stochastic Interest Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Liang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a corporate bond-pricing model with credit rating migration and astochastic interest rate. The volatility of bond price in the model strongly depends on potential creditrating migration and stochastic change of the interest rate. This new model improves the previousexisting models in which the interest rate is considered to be a constant. The existence, uniquenessand regularity of the solution for the model are established. Moreover, some properties includingthe smoothness of the free boundary are obtained. Furthermore, some numerical computations arepresented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  15. Compulsive buying and credit card misuse among credit card holders: the roles of self-esteem, materialism, impulsive buying and budget constraint

    OpenAIRE

    Omar, Nor Asiah; Rahim, Ruzita Abdul; Wel, Che Aniza Che; Alam, Syed Shah

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to examine the factors that influence credit card misuse among working adults in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The relationship among self-esteem, materialism, impulsive buying, budget constraint, compulsive buying and credit card misuse are explored in this study. Design/methodology/approach: A total of 186 questionnaires was collected via convenience sampling from credit card users of working adults in Malaysia. A structural equation model that assesses the relationship b...

  16. Bayesian inference for partially identified models exploring the limits of limited data

    CERN Document Server

    Gustafson, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Identification What Is against Us? What Is for Us? Some Simple Examples of Partially Identified ModelsThe Road Ahead The Structure of Inference in Partially Identified Models Bayesian Inference The Structure of Posterior Distributions in PIMs Computational Strategies Strength of Bayesian Updating, Revisited Posterior MomentsCredible Intervals Evaluating the Worth of Inference Partial Identification versus Model Misspecification The Siren Call of Identification Comp

  17. Partially nested designs in psychotherapy trials: A review of modeling developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterba, Sonya K

    2017-07-01

    Individually-randomized psychotherapy trials are often partially nested. For instance, individuals assigned to a treatment arm may be clustered into therapy groups for purposes of treatment administration, whereas individuals assigned to a wait-list control are unclustered. The past several years have seen rapid expansion and investigation of methods for analyzing partially nested data. Yet partial nesting often remains ignored in psychotherapy trials. This review integrates and disseminates developments in the analysis of partially nested data that are particularly relevant for psychotherapy researchers. First, we differentiate among alternative partially nested designs. Then, we present adaptations of multilevel model specifications that accommodate each design. Next, we address how moderation by treatment as well as mediation of the treatment effect can be investigated in partially nested designs. Model fitting results, annotated software syntax, and illustrative data sets are provided and key methodological issues are discussed. We emphasize that cluster-level variability in the treatment arm need not be considered a nuisance; it can be modeled to yield insights about the treatment process.

  18. EFFECTS OF TRUST FUND MODEL CREDIT INTERVENTION ON ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IBUKUN

    Agricultural credit encompasses all loans and advances granted to borrowers to finance ... Governmental Organizations (NGOs) place funds in trust with lending banks to augment the small ..... AJFAND online Scholarly Peer Reviewed, 12 (3).

  19. CREDIT SCORING MODELS IN ESTIMATING THE CREDITWORTHINESS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM AND BIG ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Zenzerović

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on estimating the credit scoring models for companies operating in the Republic of Croatia. According to level of economic and legal development, especially in the area of bankruptcy regulation as well as business ethics in the Republic of Croatia, the models derived can be applied in wider region particularly in South-eastern European countries that twenty years ago transferred from state directed to free market economy. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the relevance and possibilities of particular financial ratios in estimating the creditworthiness of business entities what was realized by performing the research among 110 companies. Along most commonly used research methods of description, analysis and synthesis, induction, deduction and surveys, the mathematical and statistical logistic regression method took the central part in this research. The designed sample of 110 business entities represented the structure of firms operating in Republic of Croatia according to their activities as well as to their size. The sample was divided in two sub samples where the first one consist of small and medium enterprises (SME and the second one consist of big business entities. In the next phase the logistic regression method was applied on the 50 independent variables – financial ratios calculated for each sample unit in order to find ones that best discriminate financially stable from unstable companies. As the result of logistic regression analysis, two credit scoring models were derived. First model include the liquidity, solvency and profitability ratios and is applicable for SME’s. With its classification accuracy of 97% the model has high predictive ability and can be used as an effective decision support tool. Second model is applicable for big companies and include only two independent variables – liquidity and solvency ratios. The classification accuracy of this model is 92,5% and, according to criteria of

  20. On reserve money for an EOQ model in an inflationary environment under supplier credits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singh, S.R.; Jain, R.

    2009-01-01

    We propose to derive a deterministic inventory model for a stock with time-varying deterioration rate with a linear trend in demand over a finite planning horizon in this study. We assume that the supplier offers a credit limit to the retailer during which there is no interest charged. However, the

  1. Disposal criticality analysis methodology's principal isotope burnup credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doering, T.W.; Thomas, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents the burnup credit aspects of the United States Department of Energy Yucca Mountain Project's methodology for performing criticality analyses for commercial light-water-reactor fuel. The disposal burnup credit methodology uses a 'principal isotope' model, which takes credit for the reduced reactivity associated with the build-up of the primary principal actinides and fission products in irradiated fuel. Burnup credit is important to the disposal criticality analysis methodology and to the design of commercial fuel waste packages. The burnup credit methodology developed for disposal of irradiated commercial nuclear fuel can also be applied to storage and transportation of irradiated commercial nuclear fuel. For all applications a series of loading curves are developed using a best estimate methodology and depending on the application, an additional administrative safety margin may be applied. The burnup credit methodology better represents the 'true' reactivity of the irradiated fuel configuration, and hence the real safety margin, than do evaluations using the 'fresh fuel' assumption. (author)

  2. Credit constraints, consumer leasing and the automobile replacement decision

    OpenAIRE

    Kathleen W. Johnson

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a model of consumer automobile replacement in the presence of leasing. The model incorporates credit constraints to distinguish between the leasing and purchasing options. It demonstrates how leasing increases the probability that a household replaces its automobile and how households that lease choose higher quality automobiles. The qualitative choice model of the household's decision to lease provides support for the observation that households that lease face credit con...

  3. Credit Card Security

    OpenAIRE

    G.C., Anup

    2013-01-01

    Author: Anup G.C. Year: 2013 Subject of thesis: Credit Card Security Number of pages: 36+2 Credit Card is a widely used electronic chip for easy transactions. The main purpose of the report was to show the security measures of transaction by credit cards. The purpose was to give information about credit cards and how they were introduced. The thesis reportcontained the types of card theft with examples and sited the various protocols used for online ...

  4. Consumer Credit Card Use Intention and Influence Factors Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yantao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit card as a kind of advanced means of payment and the new way of consumer credit in the world widely, but in our country is faced with some problems, such as their per capita spending is low, open the card number is small, motionless bank card is a lot. In this paper, using the Logit model to analyze the Anshan city in Liaoning province consumer credit card usage. And combined with empirical analysis to provide banking management Suggestions and marketing countermeasures, including targeted to provide different kinds of credit card.

  5. Effects of Credit on Economic Growth, Unemployment and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Sipahutar, Mangasa Augustinus

    2016-01-01

    Abstract               Effect of credit on economic growth, unemployment and poverty provides evidence from Indonesia on the role of banks credit for promoting economic growth and reducing both unemployment and poverty.  To document the link between banks credit and economic growth, we estimate a VAR model and variance decompositions of annual GDP per capita growth rates to examine what proxy measures of banks credit are most important in accounting for economic growth over time and ho...

  6. 76 FR 40946 - WNC Tax Credits 40, LLC, WNC Tax Credits 41, LLC, WNC Housing Tax Credits Manager 2, LLC, WNC...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-12

    ... Credits 40, LLC, WNC Tax Credits 41, LLC, WNC Housing Tax Credits Manager 2, LLC, WNC National Partners... (``Fund 41'') (each a ``Fund,'' and collectively, the ``Funds''), WNC Housing Tax Credits Manager 2, LLC (the ``Manager''), WNC National Partners, LLC (``WNC National Partners'') and WNC & Associates, Inc...

  7. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DYNAMICS OF CREDIT GROWTH AND FOREIGN RESERVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satrugan Sinah

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a model for looking into the nature of change in foreign reserve from movements in domestic credit. This model is relevant to foreign reserve targeting, small and open economies. The model denotes that measures undertaken by central banks to constraint domestic credit growth with the view of controlling capital outflows will also be detrimental to foreign reserves level. The empirical studies with application of Fourier Transformation technique have been used to build a model, which shows that growth in domestic credit is more biased towards positive swings in foreign reserves, rather than being unfavorable. The small and open economies, particularly, the Pacific Island nations, have the right set up for application of this model to safeguard foreign reserves level.

  8. Strategic interaction in undeveloped credit markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck; Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the strategic interaction between informal and formal lenders in undeveloped credit markets. In a model with adverse selection, loan seniority, market power, and differences in the cost of lending, it is shown that under general conditions a co-funding equilibrium will be a Nas...... evidence and the emerging discussion of how to best ensure financial viability and outreach of microfinance institutions......This paper studies the strategic interaction between informal and formal lenders in undeveloped credit markets. In a model with adverse selection, loan seniority, market power, and differences in the cost of lending, it is shown that under general conditions a co-funding equilibrium will be a Nash...

  9. Rural Credit in Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barslund, Mikkel Christoffer; Tarp, Finn

    This paper uses a survey of 932 rural households to uncover how the rural credit market operates in four provinces of Vietnam. Households obtain credit through formal and informal lenders, but formal loans are almost entirely for production and asset accumulation. Interest rates fell from 1997...... to 2002, reflecting increased market integration; but the determinants of formal and informal credit demand are distinct. Credit rationing depends on education and credit history, but we find no evidence of a bias against women. Regional differences are striking, and a ‘one size fits all’ approach...... to credit policy is clearly inappropriate....

  10. Effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential shocks on consumer credit growth and volatility in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meltem Gulenay Chadwick

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a panel VAR model to uncover the effect of monetary policy and macroprudential tightening probability on general purpose loans, housing loans, vehicle loans, credit cards and their respective volatilities in Turkey. To conduct our analysis, first, we compare a number of stochastic volatility models using our loan and credit card series in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise, in order to determine the best volatility model for our series. Second we disclose the latent probability of macroprudential tightening from the binary information of policy episodes, using an instrumental variable probit model estimated by conditional maximum likelihood with heteroscedasticity robust standard errors. Lastly we estimate the dynamic impact of monetary policy and macroprudential measures using a panel VAR, incorporating the latent probability of tightening episodes, credit growth, industrial production growth, loan rates, inflation and credit growth volatilities into the endogenous system of equations. We conclude that macroprudential tightening is effective in dampening credit growth, credit growth volatility and reducing consumer price inflation. Besides, this effect is more prominent when macroprudential tools are administered in coordination with monetary policy. Keywords: Consumer loans, Monetary policy, Macroprudential policy, Stochastic volatility models, Credit growth volatility, IV probit model, Panel VAR model, JEL classification: C54, E44, E52

  11. Lattice Boltzmann model for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Zhenhua; He, Nanzhong; Guo, Zhaoli; Shi, Baochang

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a general lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation with the form ∂_{t}ϕ+∑_{k=1}^{m}α_{k}∂_{x}^{k}Π_{k}(ϕ)=0 (1≤k≤m≤6), α_{k} are constant coefficients, Π_{k}(ϕ) are some known differential functions of ϕ. As some special cases of the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation, the classical (m)KdV equation, KdV-Burgers equation, K(n,n)-Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and Kawahara equation can be solved by the present LB model. Compared to the available LB models, the most distinct characteristic of the present model is to introduce some suitable auxiliary moments such that the correct moments of equilibrium distribution function can be achieved. In addition, we also conducted a detailed Chapman-Enskog analysis, and found that the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation can be correctly recovered from the proposed LB model. Finally, a large number of simulations are performed, and it is found that the numerical results agree with the analytical solutions, and usually the present model is also more accurate than the existing LB models [H. Lai and C. Ma, Sci. China Ser. G 52, 1053 (2009)1672-179910.1007/s11433-009-0149-3; H. Lai and C. Ma, Phys. A (Amsterdam) 388, 1405 (2009)PHYADX0378-437110.1016/j.physa.2009.01.005] for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

  12. Lattice Boltzmann model for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Zhenhua; He, Nanzhong; Guo, Zhaoli; Shi, Baochang

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a general lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation with the form ∂tϕ +∑k=1mαk∂xkΠk(ϕ ) =0 (1 ≤k ≤m ≤6 ), αk are constant coefficients, Πk(ϕ ) are some known differential functions of ϕ . As some special cases of the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation, the classical (m)KdV equation, KdV-Burgers equation, K (n ,n ) -Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, and Kawahara equation can be solved by the present LB model. Compared to the available LB models, the most distinct characteristic of the present model is to introduce some suitable auxiliary moments such that the correct moments of equilibrium distribution function can be achieved. In addition, we also conducted a detailed Chapman-Enskog analysis, and found that the high-order nonlinear partial differential equation can be correctly recovered from the proposed LB model. Finally, a large number of simulations are performed, and it is found that the numerical results agree with the analytical solutions, and usually the present model is also more accurate than the existing LB models [H. Lai and C. Ma, Sci. China Ser. G 52, 1053 (2009), 10.1007/s11433-009-0149-3; H. Lai and C. Ma, Phys. A (Amsterdam) 388, 1405 (2009), 10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.005] for high-order nonlinear partial differential equations.

  13. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  14. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  15. Compulsive buying and credit card misuse among credit card holders: The roles of self-esteem, materialism, impulsive buying and budget constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nor Asiah Omar

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to examine the factors that influence credit card misuse among working adults in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The relationship among self-esteem, materialism, impulsive buying, budget constraint, compulsive buying and credit card misuse are explored in this study. Design/methodology/approach: A total of 186 questionnaires was collected via convenience sampling from credit card users of working adults in Malaysia. A structural equation model that assesses the relationship between the proposed variables is tested using AMOS 20. Findings: The findings reveal that budget constraints, impulsive buying and materialism have a statistically significant influence on compulsive buying. In terms of credit card misuse, it is influenced negatively by self-esteem while positively by compulsive buying. Originality/value: Despite vast research on compulsive buying and credit card misuse, very few studies have examined it in the non-Western context.

  16. Credit Participation and Credit Source Selection of Vietnam Small and Medium Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Anh Hoang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is an attempt to investigate the motivation behind the decision to participate in the credit market of SMEs from perspectives of behavioral finance and social capital theories. In addi- tion, the study also examines the effect of behavioral finance and social capital factors on the credit source selection among SMEs. This study’s design strategy involves conducting questionnaire sur- veys to SMEs owners and statistical techniques to analyze the determinants of credit participation and credit source selection of borrowers. The findings showed that personal traits of SMEs owners/ managers in terms of behavioral finance factors such as debt and risk attitudes, present biased and overconfidence and firms networking also have impacts on the firms’ credit participation and credit source selection. The research is one of the few studies that consider the influence of behavioral finance factors on firms financing decision. Furthermore, our result also contributes to explain the common use of informal credit market in developing countries.

  17. A person fit test for IRT models for polytomous items

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.; Dagohoy, A.V.

    2007-01-01

    A person fit test based on the Lagrange multiplier test is presented for three item response theory models for polytomous items: the generalized partial credit model, the sequential model, and the graded response model. The test can also be used in the framework of multidimensional ability

  18. Closed-form pricing formula for exchange option with credit risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Geonwoo; Koo, Eunho

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study the valuation of Exchange option with credit risk. Since the over-the-counter (OTC) markets have grown rapidly in size, the counterparty default risk is very important and should be considered for the valuation of options. For modeling of credit risk, we use the structural model of Klein [13]. We derive the closed-form pricing formula for the price of the Exchange option with credit risk via the Mellin transform and provide the experiment results to illustrate the important properties of option with numerical graphs.

  19. Reactor modeling and process analysis for partial oxidation of natural gas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albrecht, B.A.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis analyses a novel process of partial oxidation of natural gas and develops a numerical tool for the partial oxidation reactor modeling. The proposed process generates syngas in an integrated plant of a partial oxidation reactor, a syngas turbine and an air separation unit. This is called

  20. On the Demand for Consumer Credit: an Islamic Setting (Research Paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Bendjilali, Boualem

    1995-01-01

    The study discusses the economic implication of the main axioms that govern the consumer credit in an Islamic framework. It derives the demand function for consumer credit, using the Murabaha modes. A simple econometric model is built to estimate the demand for credit in an Islamic setting.

  1. Earned Income Tax Credit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.M. van Oers; R.A. de Mooij (Ruud)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractIn recent policy discussions in the Netherlands, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been put forward as an effective instrument to reduce the unemployment rate among low-skilled workers. Using the MIMIC model, this article shows that a targeted EITC at low incomes indeed seems

  2. Credit scoring for individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria DIMITRIU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Lending money to different borrowers is profitable, but risky. The profits come from the interest rate and the fees earned on the loans. Banks do not want to make loans to borrowers who cannot repay them. Even if the banks do not intend to make bad loans, over time, some of them can become bad. For instance, as a result of the recent financial crisis, the capability of many borrowers to repay their loans were affected, many of them being on default. That’s why is important for the bank to monitor the loans. The purpose of this paper is to focus on credit scoring main issues. As a consequence of this, we presented in this paper the scoring model of an important Romanian Bank. Based on this credit scoring model and taking into account the last lending requirements of the National Bank of Romania, we developed an assessment tool, in Excel, for retail loans which is presented in the case study.

  3. Risk of Credit Cooperatives: An analysis based on the profile of the cooperated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto de Souza Francisco

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This work has as purpose to analyze among the credit operations, those that generate larger breach of contract risk for the cooperative, with base in the profile of the cooperated, and to identify which the strategies can be pointed to avoid possible flaws in the next credit analyses. The work was divided in three stages. The first stage refers to the National Financial System, with the objective of demonstrating as in him the Cooperatives of Credit are inserted. The second stage approaches the System of Cooperative Credit, it presents that form is structured and his/her hierarchical level. The third stage treats of the System of Risk of Credit, in the which the risk, administration and the models of credit evaluation will be analyzed. It was verified that the most appropriate models for analysis of the Cooperatives of Credit are Credit Scoring Models and Credit Bureau, us which, through statistical techniques as the analysis discriminante and regression logistics, the characteristics of considered credits of larger breach of contract risk were demonstrated. The analysis based on identifying the "worse customer", because this generates larger breach of contract risk and it influences in the financial administration. It was ended that the most relevant variables to identify the breach of contract risk were the rude monthly income and the value liberated in the credit concession, because the largest concentration of breach of contract risk.

  4. EFFICIENCY OF CREDIT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT IN CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koshel H.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The active development of integration processes causes the necessity of applying high-level approaches to management of the banking system, which is an essential part of the financial sector. Due to the importance of credit operations in the portfolio of banking assets, development of efficient and flexible credit management system is the basis for financial and market stability of banks. Purpose. Analyze the condition of the credit portfolio of banking institutions under the influence of economic processes and make conclusions and recommendations about the effectiveness of managing the bank’s credit portfolio and generalize ways of improving the structure and quality of the bank’s credit portfolio. Results. Over the last six years, the quality of the credit portfolio has become worse because of the bad debts growing and, as a result, decreasing in revenues. The calculated coefficient of management efficiency of a credit portfolio shows the dependence of this indicator on the value of risk and yield. In order to confirm the dependence and determine the degree of influence of these indicators on the efficiency of management of a loan portfolio, an economic-mathematical model was constructed on the example of both individual banks and the banking system as a whole. Detected dependence of factors is quite logical, therefore, the model can be recommended for practical use. Conclusion. Using this method of determining the management efficiency of a credit portfolio will allow the management of the bank to make reasonable decisions. It will allow the possibility of forming a more justified credit portfolio, taking into account not only the profitability, but also the real level of risk of credit operations.

  5. Credit: A Teaching Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanton, Brandolyn; And Others

    Intended for teachers of secondary school students, five lessons on consumer credit are presented. In the first lesson students identify and evaluate sources of credit, compare some of the costs and benefits of credit, and learn to apply criteria used in evaluating applications for credit. In the second lesson, students learn about two basic types…

  6. Micro Credit and Gender: A Critical Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem BALKIZ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Micro credit programs, which are based on lending money on interest and encouraging savings, have been first been used in Southern countries and are now being implemented worldwide. Mainly aimed at the rural poor, particularly poor women, micro credit programs seek to ensure sustainable economic development in line with the requirements of global capitalism and to include women in the productive activities of the market. Micro credit has been made institutionalized based on three main paradigms, namely financial sustainability, poverty alleviation and women’s empowerment. In micro credit programs, where the emphasis on women’s empowerment is strong, the lack of a social gender perspective is striking. In fact, women may face patriarchal pressure and restrictions at the start in access to loans, loan usage models, participation to the productive activities in the market and during loan repayment. Thus the allegation that by way of micro credit, women will be empowered in terms of economic, social and political means in the family and society becomes questionable. This article, by problematizing women’s relationship with micro credit, will discuss social gender relationships which prevent them from making use of these programs as they wish and from achieving the results they intend

  7. Latent Partially Ordered Classification Models and Normal Mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatsuoka, Curtis; Varadi, Ferenc; Jaeger, Judith

    2013-01-01

    Latent partially ordered sets (posets) can be employed in modeling cognitive functioning, such as in the analysis of neuropsychological (NP) and educational test data. Posets are cognitively diagnostic in the sense that classification states in these models are associated with detailed profiles of cognitive functioning. These profiles allow for…

  8. Credit risk in emerging markets Peruvian listed company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurt Burneo Farfan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to introduce the importance of the banking credit risk, the main elements that conform it and the main alternatives that are offered to access to a loan as well as a description of its measurement and management in the sector. There will be a general explanation of credit risk and the main parties involved in it. As the topic is developed it is going to be analyzed the lending process carried out by the banks as well as the quantitative and qualitative elements taken into account when taking a credit decision (The 5C’s of credit, credit scoring and models for quantification of losses for instance. Another thing to considerate is that Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Also, the investors have the access for the information of a client and they are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation and the credit risk is a useful tool for the finance management. The Enterprise risk management in Peru changed in 2015 because the local regulator is in process to review the norm, including some aspects of corporate governance; these changes are not included in this research.

  9. Determinants affecting consumer adoption of contactless credit card: an empirical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu-Min

    2008-12-01

    The contactless credit card is one of the most promising technological innovations in the field of electronic payments. It provides consumers with greater control of payments, convenience, and transaction speed. However, contactless credit cards have yet to gain significant rates of adoption in the marketplace. Thus, effort must be made to identify factors affecting consumer adoption of contactless credit cards. Based on the technology acceptance model, innovation diffusion theory, and the relevant literature, seven variables (perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, compatibility, perceived risk, trust, consumer involvement, availability of infrastructure) are proposed to help predict consumer adoption of contactless credit cards. Data collected from 312 respondents in Taiwan is tested against the proposed prediction model using the logistic regression approach. The results and implications of our study contribute to an expanded understanding of the factors that affect consumer adoption of contactless credit cards.

  10. Credit risk management in banks from the perspective of jurisprudence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sovilj Ranko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The level, structure and nature of problem loans are a significant source of credit risk in the banking business, with the main reason for developing and increasing problem loans indicate the need for a comprehensive and strategic approach to solving them. In addition, the accumulation of problem loans in banks' balance sheets negatively affects the credit activity of banks and, consequently has a negative impact on economic activity, primarily due to reduced availability of possible sources of financing both for companies and for the population. One of the main reasons for the increased credit risk exposure of banks, especially before the outbreak of the subprime crisis, are less developed models for evaluation and measurement of credit risk, as well as a poor assessment of collateral. Therefore, this paper points out to the importance of careful management of credit risk as well as the need to develop appropriate methods and models for the early detection of problem loans and reducing exposure to credit risk. In the last part of the paper, the author provides an overview of the most important collaterals, with specific reference to domestic jurisprudence.

  11. Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Düllmann, Klaus; Scheicher, Martin; Schmieder, Christian

    2007-01-01

    In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody's KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare correlation and value-atrisk (VaR) estimates in a one-factor or market model and a multi-factor or sector model. Our main finding is a complex interaction of credit risk correlations and default probabi...

  12. Business fluctuations in a credit-network economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Greenwald, Bruce; Russo, Alberto; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

    2006-10-01

    We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source of bankruptcy diffusion: in fact, failure of fulfilling debt commitments would lead to bankruptcy chains. All in all, the bankruptcy in one sector can diffuse to other sectors through linkages creating a vicious cycle and bankruptcy avalanches in the network economy. Our analysis show how the choices of credit supply by both banks and firms are interrelated. While the initial impact of monetary policy is on bank behaviour, we show the interactive play between the choices made by banks, the choices made by firms in their role as providers of credit, and the choices made by firms in their role as producers.

  13. Melt migration modeling in partially molten upper mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghods, Abdolreza

    The objective of this thesis is to investigate the importance of melt migration in shaping major characteristics of geological features associated with the partial melting of the upper mantle, such as sea-floor spreading, continental flood basalts and rifting. The partial melting produces permeable partially molten rocks and a buoyant low viscosity melt. Melt migrates through the partially molten rocks, and transfers mass and heat. Due to its much faster velocity and appreciable buoyancy, melt migration has the potential to modify dynamics of the upwelling partially molten plumes. I develop a 2-D, two-phase flow model and apply it to investigate effects of melt migration on the dynamics and melt generation of upwelling mantle plumes and focusing of melt migration beneath mid-ocean ridges. Melt migration changes distribution of the melt-retention buoyancy force and therefore affects the dynamics of the upwelling plume. This is investigated by modeling a plume with a constant initial melt of 10% where no further melting is considered. Melt migration polarizes melt-retention buoyancy force into high and low melt fraction regions at the top and bottom portions of the plume and therefore results in formation of a more slender and faster upwelling plume. Allowing the plume to melt as it ascends through the upper mantle also produces a slender and faster plume. It is shown that melt produced by decompressional melting of the plume migrates to the upper horizons of the plume, increases the upwelling velocity and thus, the volume of melt generated by the plume. Melt migration produces a plume which lacks the mushroom shape observed for the plume models without melt migration. Melt migration forms a high melt fraction layer beneath the sloping base of the impermeable oceanic lithosphere. Using realistic conditions of melting, freezing and melt extraction, I examine whether the high melt fraction layer is able to focus melt from a wide partial melting zone to a narrow region

  14. The impact of credit risk assessment on credit activity of commercial banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljubić Marijana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As banks have great social responsibility and are a subject to a specific and extensive regulations, one of the being Basel, the authors of this paper focus on the impact of credit risk assessment on credit activity of commercial banks. The authors of this paper provide a standard for risk management and an insight into directions on how to manage credit risk in the most efficient way and how to assess credit rating of a borrower.

  15. Identification, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Characterizing the Indicators of Asset Structure in the Credit Institutions Operating in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel CALINICA

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to accurately characterize the dynamics of the structural indicators of the assets in the credit institutions operating in Romania through an empirical mathematical model of dual function: regulation and control. The model can be used to predict the future evolution of the economic processes involved, or to study how to act upon them (management in case of changes in the environment around them (e.g. the impact of reducing the minimum compulsory reserve requirements on credit etc.

  16. Credit derivatives in emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Romain Rancière

    2002-01-01

    Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

  17. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  18. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-05

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. The influence of sovereign credit ratings on corporate credit ratings.

    OpenAIRE

    Umutoni, Liliane

    2017-01-01

    Credit ratings have a key role in modern financial markets as they communicate crucial information on the creditworthiness of a debt issuer to investors and regulators. These credit ratings are mostly determined by three rating agencies, namely Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, even though, the credit rating industry counts a dozen of recognized rating agencies. Indeed, the three agencies have become the market leaders with a market share of 94.3% on the U.S market (Bloomberg, 2015) and 9...

  20. Nonconventional fuel tax credit application deadline approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, F.W.; Steger, E.K.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has established Dec. 31, 1992, as the deadline for producers to file Natural Gas Policy Act applications for gas produced from nonconventional fuel sources. Qualifying wells may receive tax credits ranging from 52 cents/MMBTU to 92 cents/MMBTU depending on the category and year of production. The most commonly eligible wells include tight formations, coalbed methanes, and gas from Devonian shales. FERC Order 539 allows producers to make application with the state jurisdictional agencies through Dec. 31, 1992. Many state jurisdictional agencies are willing to accept partial applications to be completed shortly thereafter

  1. Credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Pětníková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

  2. Sex of respondent and credit attitudes as predictors of credit card use and debt payment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Michael; Eckrich, Donald W

    2006-06-01

    Researchers have suggested there may be sex differences in attitudes towards credit card possession and use. Undergraduates, 41 men and 41 women, completed a survey regarding their attitudes towards credit, credit card use, and repayment. Analysis indicated sex played a significant moderating role between number of credit cards used and the importance of paying off monthly balances. Women possessed more credit cards than men and engaged in more frequent shopping. Number of credit cards increased with paying off of monthly balances. Data are discussed in terms of the importance of managing credit card debt in an increasingly cashless society.

  3. Consumer Handbook to Credit Protection Laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.

    The five sections of this consumer handbook are The Cost of Credit, Applying for Credit, Credit Histories and Records, Correcting Credit Mistakes, and Complaining about Credit. Each section discusses relevant legislation: Truth in Lending, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, and the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Topics discussed in section I include…

  4. Credit default swaps and risk-shifting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campello, M.; Matta, R.

    2012-01-01

    Credit default swaps (CDSs) are thought to ease borrowing by protecting lenders against default. This paper develops a model of the demand for CDS when borrowers choose the riskiness of investment and verification is imperfect. The model shows that CDSs may lead to risk-shifting, increasing the

  5. Non-conventional fuel tax credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soeoet, P.M.

    1988-01-01

    Coal-seam methane, along with certain other non-conventional fuels, is eligible for a tax credit. This production tax credit allowed coal-seam methane producers to receive $0.7526 per million Btu of gas sold during 1986. In 1987, this credit rose to $0.78 per million Btu. The tax credit is a very significant element of the economic analysis of current coal-seam methane projects. In today's spot market, gas prices are around $1.50 per million Btu. Allowing for costs of production, the gas producer will net more income from the tax credit than from the sale of the gas. The Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 is the source of this tax credit. There were some minor changes made by subsequent legislation, but most of the tax credit has remained intact. Wells must be drilled by 1990 to qualify for the tax credit but the production from such wells is eligible for the tax credit until 2001. Projections have been made, showing that the tax credit should increase to $0.91 per million Btu for production in 1990 and $1.34 per million Btu in 2000. Variables which may decrease the tax credit from these projections are dramatically lower oil prices or general economic price deflation

  6. Credit Management System

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Credit Management System. Outsourced Internet-based application. CMS stores and processes data related to USAID credit programs. The system provides information...

  7. Does tax policy affect credit spreads? Evidence from the US and UK

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ji, K.; Qian, Zongxin

    This paper studies how exogenous tax changes affect credit market conditions in the US and UK. Using both structural VAR and structural factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model, we find that tax-policy shocks have significant effects on the credit spread. Specifically, the credit spread responds first

  8. Optimal Tradable Credits Scheme and Congestion Pricing with the Efficiency Analysis to Congestion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Gao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We allow for three traffic scenarios: the tradable credits scheme, congestion pricing, and no traffic measure. The utility functions of different modes (car, bus, and bicycle are developed by considering the income’s impact on travelers’ behaviors. Their purpose is to analyze the demand distribution of different modes. A social optimization model is built aiming at maximizing the social welfare. The optimal tradable credits scheme (distribution of credits, credits charging, and the credit price, congestion pricing fees, bus frequency, and bus fare are obtained by solving the model. Mode choice behavior under the tradable credits scheme is also studied. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the model’s availability and explore the effects of the three schemes on traffic system’s performance. Results show congestion pricing would earn more social welfare than the other traffic measures. However, tradable credits scheme will give travelers more consumer surplus than congestion pricing. Travelers’ consumer surplus with congestion pricing is the minimum, which injures the travelers’ benefits. Tradable credits scheme is considered the best scenario by comparing the three scenarios’ efficiency.

  9. The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    2014-01-01

    We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory......, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity...

  10. The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friewald, Niels; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and its credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent...... with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or by risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the "distress puzzle", i.e. the lack of a positive relation...

  11. Credit Union Headquarters

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) is the independent federal agency that charters and supervises federal credit unions. NCUA, backed of the full faith...

  12. Comparison of analysis methods for burnup credit applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, T.L.; Brady, M.C.; Renier, J.P.; Parks, C.V.

    1989-01-01

    The current approach used for the development and certification of spent fuel storage and transport casks requires an assumption of fresh fuel isotopics in the criticality safety analysis. However, it has been shown that there is a considerable reactivity reduction when the isotopics representative of the depleted (or burned) fuel are used in a criticality analysis. Thus, by taking credit for the burned state of the fuel (i.e., burnup credit), a cask designer could achieve a significant increase in payload. Accurate prediction of k eff for spent fuel arrays depends both on the criticality safety analysis and the prediction of the spent fuel isotopics via a depletion analysis. Spent fuel isotopics can be obtained from detailed multidimensional reactor analyses, e.g. the code PDQ, or from point reactor burnup models. These reactor calculations will help verify the adequacy of the isotopics and determine Δk eff biases for various analysis assumptions (with and without fission products, actinide absorbers, burnable poison rods, etc.). New software developed to interface PDQ multidimensional isotopics with KENO V.a reactor and cask models is described. Analyses similar to those performed for the reactor cases are carried out with a representative burnup credit cask model using the North Anna fuel. This paper presents the analysis methodology that has been developed for evaluating the physics issues associated with burnup credit. It is applicable in the validation and characterization of fuel isotopics as well as in determining the influence of various analysis assumptions in terms of δk eff . The methodology is used in the calculation of reactor restart criticals and analysis of a typical burnup credit cask

  13. Managing Credit Booms and Busts : A Pigouvian Taxation Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeanne, O.; Korinek, A.

    2010-01-01

    We study a dynamic model in which the interaction between debt ac- cumulation and asset prices magni es credit booms and busts. We find that borrowers do not internalize these feedback e¤ects and therefore suf- fer from excessively large booms and busts in both credit flows and asset prices. We show

  14. Credit risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Bank for International Settlements

    2003-01-01

    Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

  15. Dynamic Virtual Credit Card Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molloy, Ian; Li, Jiangtao; Li, Ninghui

    Theft of stored credit card information is an increasing threat to e-commerce. We propose a dynamic virtual credit card number scheme that reduces the damage caused by stolen credit card numbers. A user can use an existing credit card account to generate multiple virtual credit card numbers that are either usable for a single transaction or are tied with a particular merchant. We call the scheme dynamic because the virtual credit card numbers can be generated without online contact with the credit card issuers. These numbers can be processed without changing any of the infrastructure currently in place; the only changes will be at the end points, namely, the card users and the card issuers. We analyze the security requirements for dynamic virtual credit card numbers, discuss the design space, propose a scheme using HMAC, and prove its security under the assumption the underlying function is a PRF.

  16. Exit and Failure of Credit Unions in Brazil: A Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Leonel de Carvalho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the factors that affect the market exit of Brazilian singular credit unions from 1995 to 2009; it also identifies and lists the determinants of various types of market exits and analyzes whether profitability is a significant factor for credit union survival. This study was conducted with accounting data provided by the Central Bank of Brazil, which derives only from individual cooperatives, i.e. singular credit unions. Quarterly financial statements from these credit unions that were active from 1995 to the second quarter of 2009 were employed, totaling 71,325 observations for 1,929 credit unions. Based on survival and the model of competing risks (such as the Cox, Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and Competing Risk models, the results show that there is no statistical evidence to ensure a correlation between profitability and credit union survival. The results also suggest that the size of credit unions plays a key role in their survival and longevity and that their funding and investment management are related to their survival and risk of market exit. In conclusion, the results confirm the initial idea that the duality inherent to credit unions - cooperative principles versus economic efficiency - might influence the stability, survival, and longevity of these institutions. Such results may also imply that a credit union embracing the rationale of a private bank will become more estranged from its members, something which will hinder its future operations and increase the likelihood of its exit from the market.

  17. Credit rating dynamics and competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirth, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    I analyze the market for credit ratings with competition between more than two rating agencies. How can honest rating behavior be achieved, and under which conditions can a new honest rating agency successfully invade a market with inflating incumbents? My model predicts cyclic dynamics...

  18. 12 CFR 561.12 - Consumer credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...; loans in the nature of overdraft protection; and credit extended in connection with credit cards. ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Consumer credit. 561.12 Section 561.12 Banks... AFFECTING ALL SAVINGS ASSOCIATIONS § 561.12 Consumer credit. The term consumer credit means credit extended...

  19. THE CREDIT AND CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT DURING THE CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chitan Gheorghe

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Considering the importance of credit risk management to ensure the financial system stability,the paper presents financial and real sector interaction highlighting that credit growth based on increase of creditdemand, of income, of assets prices, of currency availability, the interest rate differential between countries andrelaxation of regulatory framework, leaves banks more vulnerable to subsequent downturn in economic activity andasset prices. It also outlines the steps taken or those I think that should be implemented in terms of improving creditrisk management, implementation of regulatory measures to limit credit expansion, enforcing the regulatoryrequirements for covering the expected and unexpected losses, introduction of new surveillance tools aimed to leadto a more resilient financial system.

  20. Network Effects in Risk Sharing and Credit Market Access: Evidence from Istanbul

    OpenAIRE

    Fikret Adaman; Oya Pinar Ardic; Didem Tuzemen

    2006-01-01

    It is a truism that households in developing countries that face idiosyncratic income/expenditure shocks may face difficulties in smoothing consumption through formal credit institutions, and hence rely, at least partially, on informal ties. While this issue has been explored extensively in the literature for rural areas, the picture reflecting the urban setting remains relatively uninvestigated. This paper aims to fill this gap by presenting an exclusively designed survey implemented i...

  1. Integration Of Company’s Financial Data In Credit Risk Assessment Using A Multidimensional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria – Monica Haralambie

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a detailed overview from theoretical and practical perspectives of a scoring system used by a financial institution in assessing the credit risk of a corporate client. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the importance of a scoring system for a credit institution when approving a loan application of a potential borrower. The complexity and importance of the topic makes it a subject of high interest for all type of credit institutions. We believe that through this work we were able to bring into discussion only a part of the specific issues related to credit risk management scoring systems and we believe that this work represents a support for future research

  2. Mobile Money, Trade Credit and Economic Development : Theory and Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, T.H.L.; Pamuk, H.; Uras, R.B.; Ramrattan, R.

    2015-01-01

    Using a novel enterprise survey from Kenya (FinAccess Business), we document a strong positive association between the use of mobile money as a method to pay suppliers and access to trade credit. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, imperfect credit

  3. Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsabadze, Teimuraz

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

  4. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  5. Data mining for assessing the credit risk of local government units in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvija Vlah Jerić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few decades, data mining techniques, especially artificial neural networks, have been used for modelling many real-world problems. This paper aims to test the performance of three methods: (1 an artificial neural network (ANN, (2 a hybrid artificial neural network and genetic algorithm approach (ANN-GA, and (2 the Tobit regression approach in determining the credit risk of local government units in Croatia. The evaluation of credit risk and prediction of debtor bankruptcy have long been regarded as an important topic in accounting and finance literature. In this research, credit risk is modelled under a regression approach unlike typical credit risk analysis, which is generally viewed as a classification problem. Namely, a standard evaluation of credit risk is not possible due to a lack of bankruptcy data. Thus, the credit risk of a local unit is approximated using the ratio of outstanding liabilities maturing in a given year to total expenditure of the local unit in the same period. The results indicate that the ANN-GA hybrid approach performs significantly better than the Tobit model by providing a significantly smaller average mean squared error. This work is beneficial to researchers and the government in evaluating a local government unit’s credit score.

  6. Credit Card Quiz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Jeff

    2000-01-01

    Describes an activity in which students design credit cards and discover for themselves the mathematical realities of buying on credit. Employs multiple-intelligence theory to increase the chance that all students will be reached. (YDS)

  7. Credit derivatives and risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michael S. Gibson

    2007-01-01

    The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

  8. Latinos in the Credit Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Ralph, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    Access to consumer credit as a means of building wealth is one of the least examined forms of social inequality. The recent economic crisis in the United States has brought attention to the significance of consumer credit in our nation's economy; however, less understood are the specific obstacles and barriers that prevent low-income individuals from reaching the "American Dream." In an exploratory manner, this study compared credit access, credit literacy, and credit experience of low-income...

  9. Quality of urban forest carbon credits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelam C. Poudyala; Jacek P. Siry; J.M. Bowker

    2011-01-01

    While the urban forest is considered an eligible source of carbon offset credits, little is known about its market potential and the quality aspects of the credits. As credit suppliers increase in number and credit buyers become more interested in purchasing carbon credits, it is unclear whether and how urban forest carbon credits can perform relative to the other...

  10. Model rules and regulations for a global CO2 emissions credit market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandor, R.L.; Cole, J.B.; Kelly, M.E.

    1994-01-01

    On 21 April 1993, on the occasion of Earth Day, the United States affirmed its commitment to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the year 2000. In doing so, the United States joined the European Union (EU), Japan, and approximately 141 other countries that had either committed themselves to this international objective or subscribed to the general principles contained in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, June 1992. The commitment of these three trading groups provides the basis for recommending that a market for tradeable carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission entitlements among these groups be implemented as soon as an initial set of rules and regulations can be drafted. The goal of a tradeable CO 2 entitlement or credit market is to lower the cost of limiting emissions. The Costs of CO 2 emission abatement are lowered because the market encourages more emission reductions to be produced by the most efficient resources. The ability easily to selI CO 2 credits created through large emission cuts allows cost recovery by, and incentives for, the most efficient sources of emission reductions. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate debate by providing model rules and regulations for a tradeable CO 2 emission credit market. The trading rules and regulations proposed here are meant to initiate a process whereby participants will iterate toward a final set of rules and regulations. Therefore, our proposal should create a point of departure for further adjustments and transformation to the initial set of recommendations. A specific proposal will be advanced at this point in order to provide a basis for the conceptualization of this global market. Moreover, this specific proposal will help focus dialogue and may provide insight into the general recommendations presented in the balance of this paper

  11. Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikita V. Artamonov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate, total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates. The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research

  12. Comment on Geoengineering with seagrasses: is credit due where credit is given?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreska, Matthew P. J.; McGlathery, Karen J.; Emmer, Igino M.; Needelman, Brian A.; Emmett-Mattox, Stephen; Crooks, Stephen; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Myers, Doug

    2018-03-01

    In their recent review, ‘Geoengineering with seagrasses: is credit due where credit is given?,’ Johannessen and Macdonald (2016) invoke the prospect of carbon offset-credit over-allocation by the Verified Carbon Standard as a pretense for their concerns about published seagrass carbon burial rate and global stock estimates. Johannessen and Macdonald (2016) suggest that projects seeking offset-credits under the Verified Carbon Standard methodology VM0033: Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration will overestimate long-term (100 yr) sediment organic carbon (SOC) storage because issues affecting carbon burial rates bias storage estimates. These issues warrant serious consideration by the seagrass research community; however, VM0033 does not refer to seagrass SOC ‘burial rates’ or ‘storage.’ Projects seeking credits under VM0033 must document greenhouse gas emission reductions over time, relative to a baseline scenario, in order to receive credits. Projects must also monitor changes in carbon pools, including SOC, to confirm that observed benefits are maintained over time. However, VM0033 allows projects to conservatively underestimate project benefits by citing default values for specific accounting parameters, including CO2 emissions reductions. We therefore acknowledge that carbon crediting methodologies such as VM0033 are sensitive to the quality of the seagrass literature, particularly when permitted default factors are based in part on seagrass burial rates. Literature-derived values should be evaluated based on the concerns raised by Johannessen and Macdonald (2016), but these issues should not lead to credit over-allocation in practice, provided VM0033 is rigorously followed. These issues may, however, affect the feasibility of particular seagrass offset projects.

  13. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Nebraska: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Nebraska to give tax credits for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact that…

  14. The Determinants of Credit Rating: Brazilian Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Cruz de Souza Murcia

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to identify the determinant factors of credit rating in Brazil. The relevance of this proposal is based on the importance of the subject as well as the uniqueness of the Brazilian market. As for originality, the great majority of previous studies regarding credit rating have been developed in the US, UK and Australia; therefore the effect on other markets is still unclear, especially in emerging markets, like Brazil. We’ve used a Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE model considering a panel structure with a categorical dependent variable (credit rating and ten independent variables: leverage, profitability, size, financial coverage, growth, liquidity, corporate governance, control, financial market performance and internationalization. The sample consisted of 153 rating observations during the period of 1997-2011 for a total of 49 public firms operating in the Brazilian Market. Results showed that leverage and internationalization are significant at the 1% level in explaining credit rating. Performance in the financial market was significant at a 5% level; profitability and growth were also statistically significant, but at a 10% significance level.

  15. Credit Market Information Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi; Craig, Ben R.; Thomson, James B.; Zaman, Saeed

    2015-01-01

    We examine how a combination of credit market and asset quality information can jointly be used in assessing bank franchise value. We find that expectations of future credit demand and future asset quality explain contemporaneous bank franchise value, indicative of the feedback in credit market information and its consequent impact on bank franchise value.

  16. Credit conditions and firm investment: Evidence from the MENA region

    OpenAIRE

    Herrala, Risto; Turk Ariss, Rima

    2012-01-01

    The Arab Spring is a clear indicator of the urgency of achieving inclusive growth and ensuring job creation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where private sector development is still hindered by limited access to credit. Following Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) seminal model, we apply a novel methodological approach to a unique data set of MENA firms to estimate credit limits and their impacts on capital accumulation. Notably, we find higher credit limits in countries where the...

  17. Do healthcare tax credits help poor-health individuals on low incomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Novi, Cinzia; Marenzi, Anna; Rizzi, Dino

    2018-03-01

    In several countries, personal income tax permits tax credits for out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure. Tax credits benefit taxpayers at all income levels by reducing their net tax liability and modify the price of out-of-pocket expenditure. To the extent that consumer demand is price elastic, they may influence the amount of eligible healthcare expenditure for which taxpayers may claim a credit. These effects influence, in turn, income distributions and taxpayers' health status and therefore income-related inequality in health. Redistributive consequences of tax credits have been widely investigated. However, little is known about the ability of tax credits to alleviate health inequality. In this paper, we study the potential effects that tax credits for health expenses may have on income-related inequality in health status with reference to the Italian institutional setting. The analysis is performed using a tax-benefit microsimulation model that reproduces the personal income tax and incorporates taxpayers' behavioral responses to changes in tax credit rate. Our results suggest that the current healthcare tax credit design tends to favor the richest part of the population.

  18. Isotopic biases for actinide-only burnup credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahimi, M.; Lancaster, D.; Hoeffer, B.; Nichols, M.

    1997-01-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to present the new methodology for establishing bias and uncertainty associated with isotopic prediction in spent fuel assemblies for burnup credit analysis. The analysis applies to the design of criticality control systems for spent fuel casks. A total of 54 spent fuel samples were modeled and analyzed using the Shielding Analyses Sequence (SAS2H). Multiple regression analysis and a trending test were performed to develop isotopic correction factors for 10 actinide burnup credit isotopes. 5 refs., 1 tab

  19. Leading internal and external sources of credit risk in the top South African banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tankiso Moloi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed at identifying the leading credit risk indicators in the South African banking context as well as the development of an integrated leading credit risk indicator model. A content analysis was used as a data extraction methodology and structural equation modelling was used as a data analysis methodology. The results obtained indicated that utilising the structural equation modelling, gross savings, and prime overdraft rates, number of judgements, business insolvencies and unemployment rates were formulated as leading economic and market (external indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. Similarly, utilising the principal component analysis, bank asset quality, bank asset concentration as well as bank trading and hedging activities were formulated as leading bank specific (internal indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. The Integrated Leading Credit Risk Indicator Model (ICRIM was formulated utilising the accepted leading credit risk indicators. The ICRIM parameters were benchmarked against the generally accepted fit indices such as the RMSEA, comparative fit (baseline comparison as well as the Hoelter and its results output were found to be consistent with these generally accepted fit indices

  20. WERE OIL PRICE MARKETS THE SOURCE OF CREDIT CRISIS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES? EVIDENCE USING A VAR-MGARCH-DCC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadhem Selmi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of oil prices, credit, financial and commercial linkages in the propagation of industrial market crises during the period 2004-2012. Using VAR-MGARCH-DCC model regressions on seven markets finds that credit linkage played a significant role in the subprime, financial and global crises. Our results also show that the European debt crisis has already spread like a crisis from oil prices to Ireland and Portugal, and other countries are now at risk: Spain is a probable candidate for financial crisis.

  1. The two-child limit for Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit

    OpenAIRE

    MACHIN, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Richard Machin explores the background to, and likely impact of, the two-child limit on the child element in Universal Credit and the Child Tax Credit, which was introduced by the Welfare Reform and Work Act 2016

  2. Credit Hours with No Set Time: A Study of Credit Policies in Asynchronous Online Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasuhn, Frederick Carl

    2014-01-01

    U.S. public university system policies were examined to learn how credit hours were determined for asynchronous online education. Findings indicated that (a) credit hour meaning and use are not consistent, (b) primary responsibility for credit hour decisions was at the local level, and (c) no policies exist to guide credit hour application for…

  3. Credit Scoring by Fuzzy Support Vector Machines with a Novel Membership Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Shi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to the recent financial crisis and European debt crisis, credit risk evaluation has become an increasingly important issue for financial institutions. Reliable credit scoring models are crucial for commercial banks to evaluate the financial performance of clients and have been widely studied in the fields of statistics and machine learning. In this paper a novel fuzzy support vector machine (SVM credit scoring model is proposed for credit risk analysis, in which fuzzy membership is adopted to indicate different contribution of each input point to the learning of SVM classification hyperplane. Considering the methodological consistency, support vector data description (SVDD is introduced to construct the fuzzy membership function and to reduce the effect of outliers and noises. The SVDD-based fuzzy SVM model is tested against the traditional fuzzy SVM on two real-world datasets and the research results confirm the effectiveness of the presented method.

  4. Credit Cards. Bulletin No. 721. (Revised.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Linda Kirk

    This cooperative extension bulletin provides basic information about credit cards and their use. It covers the following topics: types of credit cards (revolving credit, travel and entertainment, and debit); factors to consider when evaluating a credit card (interest rates, grace period, and annual membership fee); other credit card costs (late…

  5. 7 CFR 4280.139 - Credit quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit quality. 4280.139 Section 4280.139 Agriculture... Improvements Program Section B. Guaranteed Loans § 4280.139 Credit quality. The lender must determine credit quality and must address all of the elements of credit quality in a written credit analysis, including...

  6. Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

    2018-03-01

    Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

  7. Value of credit bureau reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brković Milan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An efficient system of credit information sharing contributes to solving the problem of information asymmetry on the credit and financial markets in general. The consequences of the global economic and financial crisis revealed an increasing demand for reliable information and data which could close the existing gap in their insufficiency, misuse or inadequate analytical value for the economic and financial policy makers. In that sense, more attention is directed to the usefulness of credit information sharing and the practical value of information and data contained in credit bureau reports for the purposes of achieving the overall economic policy goals. The fulfillment of that role depends mostly on the credit information sharing system and its characteristics, participants, and procedures. A credit bureau report in the best possible manner reflects all advantages and disadvantages of the established credit information exchange system in terms of its analytical value for the purposes of efficient macroeconomic and macrofinancial policies.

  8. A proposed quantitative credit-rating methodology for South African provincial departments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Fourie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The development of subnational credit-rating methodologies affords benefits for subnationals, the sovereign and its citizens. Trusted credit ratings facilitate access to financial markets and above-average ratings allow for the negotiation of better collateral and guarantee agreements, as well as for funding of, for example, infrastructure projects at superior (lower interest rates. This paper develops the quantitative section of a credit-rating methodology for South African subnationals. The unique characteristics of South African data, their assembly, and the selection of dependent and independent variables for the linear-regression model chosen, are discussed. The methodology is then applied to the provincial Department of Health using linear regression modelling.

  9. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

  10. 12 CFR 703.6 - Credit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit analysis. 703.6 Section 703.6 Banks and... ACTIVITIES § 703.6 Credit analysis. A Federal credit union must conduct and document a credit analysis on an... Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. A Federal credit union must update this analysis at least annually...

  11. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael C Münnix

    Full Text Available We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

  12. A random matrix approach to credit risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

  13. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  14. Trust and Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harste, Gorm

    The present paper is an answer to the question, how did trust and credit emerge. The systems of trust and credit reduce the environmental and contextual complexities in which trust and credit are embedded. The paper analyses the forms of this reduction in a number of stages in the evolution...... of history from the present risk of modern systems back to early modernity, the Reformation and the high medieval Revolutions in law, organization and theology. It is not a history of economics, but a history of the conditions of some communication codes used in economic systems....

  15. An Economic Order Quantity Model with Completely Backordering and Nondecreasing Demand under Two-Level Trade Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Molamohamadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the traditional inventory system, it was implicitly assumed that the buyer pays to the seller as soon as he receives the items. In today’s competitive industry, however, the seller usually offers the buyer a delay period to settle the account of the goods. Not only the seller but also the buyer may apply trade credit as a strategic tool to stimulate his customers’ demands. This paper investigates the effects of the latter policy, two-level trade credit, on a retailer’s optimal ordering decisions within the economic order quantity framework and allowable shortages. Unlike most of the previous studies, the demand function of the customers is considered to increase with time. The objective of the retailer’s inventory model is to maximize the profit. The replenishment decisions optimally are obtained using genetic algorithm. Two special cases of the proposed model are discussed and the impacts of parameters on the decision variables are finally investigated. Numerical examples demonstrate the profitability of the developed two-level supply chain with backorder.

  16. Supply Chain Coordination under Trade Credit and Quantity Discount with Sales Effort Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihong Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of trade credit and quantity discount in supply chain coordination when the sales effort effect on market demand is considered. In this paper, we consider a two-echelon supply chain consisting of a single retailer ordering a single product from a single manufacturer. Market demand is stochastic and is influenced by retailer sales effort. We formulate an analytical model based on a single trade credit and find that the single trade credit cannot achieve the perfect coordination of the supply chain. Then, we develop a hybrid quantitative analytical model for supply chain coordination by coherently integrating incentives of trade credit and quantity discount with sales effort effects. The results demonstrate that, providing that the discount rate satisfies certain conditions, the proposed hybrid model combining trade credit and quantity discount will be able to effectively coordinate the supply chain by motivating retailers to exert their sales effort and increase product order quantity. Furthermore, the hybrid quantitative analytical model can provide great flexibility in coordinating the supply chain to achieve an optimal situation through the adjustment of relevant parameters to resolve conflict of interests from different supply chain members. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid model.

  17. Documentary Credit Transfer and Other Financing from What Can Match as Product of Credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libardo Quintero Salazar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available When a contract of international sale of goods is mediated by a form of payment as the documentary credit, exporters that initially lack financial resources to produce or obtain merchandise that then will be delivered to the importer, look as first natural possibility of financing the transfer for the documentary credit. Now not always the credit can be transferable in accordance with the Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits (UCP – because, for example, the importer or the financial entity do not want it in that way. Given the above scenario, this article aims to provide solutions, explaining legal alternatives for the exporter that is not in the UCP-, to use the money that might correspond as a result of the documentary credit, to finance the production or acquisition of goods against other traders, and then reselling them to the importer. It concludes that the exporter can achieve such immediate funding - similar to what encourage the transfer of documentary credit - using to their relations with the supplier, figures as the assignment of a future credit, banker’s acceptance and contract terms.

  18. OUTLIER DETECTION IN PARTIAL ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUN ZHAO

    Full Text Available The weighed total least square (WTLS estimate is very sensitive to the outliers in the partial EIV model. A new procedure for detecting outliers based on the data-snooping is presented in this paper. Firstly, a two-step iterated method of computing the WTLS estimates for the partial EIV model based on the standard LS theory is proposed. Secondly, the corresponding w-test statistics are constructed to detect outliers while the observations and coefficient matrix are contaminated with outliers, and a specific algorithm for detecting outliers is suggested. When the variance factor is unknown, it may be estimated by the least median squares (LMS method. At last, the simulated data and real data about two-dimensional affine transformation are analyzed. The numerical results show that the new test procedure is able to judge that the outliers locate in x component, y component or both components in coordinates while the observations and coefficient matrix are contaminated with outliers

  19. Modern bank's credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

  20. Credit Card Debt Hardship Letter Samples

    OpenAIRE

    lissa coffey

    2016-01-01

    Having trouble with your credit card debt? Below you will find examples of hardship letters. There are several things to consider when writing a credit card hardship letter. A hardship letter is the first step to letting the credit card company know that things are bad. This free credit card hardship letter sample is only a guide in order to start the negotiation. Credit card debt hardship letter example, hardship letter to credit card. If you are having trouble paying off your debt and need ...

  1. Estimating the impact of investment tax credits on aircraft demand

    OpenAIRE

    Mackay, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses exogenous price changes from the shifting tax policies of the 1980’s to identify the parameters of a nested-logit discrete choice model of the aircraft market. The federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) was a tax credit of 6-10% of a firm's new capital investment that was removed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86). Such tax credits continue to be proposed as tools to spur investment, and they are still utlized in many states and select industries. This research adds to the ...

  2. Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

    2017-11-01

    This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

  3. Credit cues and impression management: a preliminary attempt to explain the credit card effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Michael; Trombetta, Jessica; Gipe, Aimee

    2004-08-01

    Prior research had suggested that individuals would estimate higher product values and even tip more in the presence of credit cues. In the absence of a clear theoretical interpretation of this credit card effect we propose that this tendency is an impression management strategy such that credit cue exposure influences perceptions of the self and focuses attention on individual wealth. Thus, in the presence of others, credit cues serve to enhance images of the self. Preliminary data in support of this alternative theoretical perspective are presented.

  4. Permit trading and credit trading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Jan-Tjeerd; R. Dijstra, Bouwe

    This paper compares emissions trading based on a cap on total emissions (permit trading) and on relative standards per unit of output (credit trading). Two types of market structure are considered: perfect competition and Cournot oligopoly. We find that output, abatement costs and the number...... of firms are higher under credit trading. Allowing trade between permit-trading and credit-trading sectors may increase in welfare. With perfect competition, permit trading always leads to higher welfare than credit trading. With imperfect competition, credit trading may outperform permit trading....... Environmental policy can lead to exit, but also to entry of firms. Entry and exit have a profound impact on the performance of the schemes, especially under imperfect competition. We find that it may be impossible to implement certain levels of total industry emissions. Under credit trading several levels...

  5. Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Hassan, Shakill

    This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response...

  6. Optimal Retail Price Model for Partial Consignment to Multiple Retailers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also provides general solutions for the complete product consignment and the traditional policy that adopts no product consignment. In other words, both the complete consignment and nonconsignment models are extensions of the proposed model (i.e., special cases. Research results indicated that the optimal retail price must be between 1/2 (50% and 2/3 (66.67% times the upper limit of the gross profit. This study also explored the results and influence of parameter variations on optimal retail price in the model.

  7. Establishment of the Credit Indicator System of Micro Enterprises Based on Support Vector Machine and R-Type Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanjiang Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The micro enterprises’ credit indicators with credit identification ability are selected by the two classification models of Support Vector Machine for the first round of indicator selection and then for the second round of indicator selection, deleting credit indicators with redundant information by clustering variables through the principle of minimum sum of deviation squares. This paper provides a screening model for credit evaluation indicators of micro enterprises and uses credit data of 860 micro enterprises samples in Inner Mongolia in western China for application analysis. The test results show that, first, the constructed final micro enterprises’ credit indicator system is in line with the 5C model; second, the validity test based on the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve reveals that each of the screened credit evaluation indicators is valid.

  8. Overrated credit risk: three essays on credit risk in turbulent times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongaerts, D.G.J.

    2010-01-01

    Credit markets have shown a dramatic development at the start of the 21st century. Increased regulatory pressure on financial institutions has spurred the development of innovative products that allow for transfer of credit risk. These developments lay at the base of the largest financial crisis

  9. Export Credit Insurances in Developing Countries: The Case of Turkey and IMT Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cihat Koksal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Export credit insurance is one of the substantial tools to promote export in a country. This paper endeavours to find out the effect of Export Credit Insurance covered by Export Credit Agencies on the developing countries’ export figures and GDP. The countries subject to the analysis are Turkey and Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand also known as IMT Countries. The relationship between export value, economic growth and export credit insurances will be analyzed using Vector Autoregression (VAR Model.

  10. Capacity credit of wind power in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijk, A.J.M. van; Turkenburg, W.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Dutch Government has stated that by the year 2000 a total amount of 1000 MW wind power should be installed in the Netherlands. The penetration of wind power into the electricity supply system poses questions about the costs and benefits of wind power. One of the parameters affecting the benefits is the amount of conventional capacity that can be saved by wind power, the so-called 'capacity credit'. In this study the capacity credit of wind power in the Netherlands is analysed. The capacity credit is calculated using a probabilistic method which evaluates the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the total electricity generating system. In these evaluations the available wind power is treated as 'negative load'. The capacity credit is evaluated with respect to the Dutch electricity generating system and the electricity demand that is projected for the year 2000 by the Dutch utilities. Special attention is given to modelling the hourly wind power production. The model incorporates detailed siting information, wind speed data for several meteorological stations and the power curves of five different types of wind turbines. The average amount of electricity produced by wind power can be expressed by the capacity factor. For the set of assumptions and for the meteorological conditions for the years investigated the capacity factor has a value of 22%. 30 refs, 10 figs, 3 tabs

  11. The Impact of Financial Development on the Relationship between Trade Credit, Bank Credit and Firm Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran; Jérôme Héricourt

    2013-01-01

    Using a database of more than 1,300 firms from six countries in the MENA region, we study the impact of financial development on the relationship between trade credit on the one hand and bank credit access and firm-level characteristics, especially financial health, on the other hand. Trade credit use increases with the difficulty for gaining access to bank credit, and indicators of the quality of the firm's financial structure negatively influence the use of trade credit. Additional investig...

  12. The "Negative" Credit Card Effect: Credit Cards as Spending-Limiting Stimuli in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lie, Celia; Hunt, Maree; Peters, Heather L.; Veliu, Bahrie; Harper, David

    2010-01-01

    The "credit card effect" describes a finding where greater value is given to consumer items if credit card logos are present. One explanation for the effect is that credit cards elicit spending behavior through associative learning. If this is true, social, economic and historical contexts should alter this effect. In Experiment 1, Year…

  13. Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

    2014-11-13

    The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  14. Conceptual cask design with burnup credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seong Hee; Ahn, Joon Gi; Hwang, Hae Ryong

    2003-01-01

    Conceptual design has been performed for a spent fuel transport cask with burnup credit and a neutron-absorbing material to maximize transportation capacity. Both fresh and burned fuel are assumed to be stored in the cask and boral and borated stainless steel are selected for the neutron-absorbing materials. Three different sizes of cask with typical 14, 21 and 52 PWR fuel assemblies are modeled and analyzed with the SCALE 4.4 code system. In this analysis, the biases and uncertainties through validation calculations for both isotopic predictions and criticality calculation for the spent fuel have been taken into account. All of the reactor operating parameters, such as moderator density, soluble boron concentration, fuel temperature, specific power, and operating history, have been selected in a conservative way for the criticality analysis. Two different burnup credit loading curves are developed for boral and borated stainless steel absorbing materials. It is concluded that the spent fuel transport cask design with burnup credit is feasible and is expected to increase cask payloads. (author)

  15. Intertemporal consumption and credit constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2010-01-01

    There is continuing controversy over the importance of credit constraints. This paper investigates whether total household expenditure and debt is affected by an exogenous increase in access to credit provided by a credit market reform that enabled Danish house owners to use housing equity...

  16. A partial hearing animal model for chronic electro-acoustic stimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irving, S.; Wise, A. K.; Millard, R. E.; Shepherd, R. K.; Fallon, J. B.

    2014-08-01

    Objective. Cochlear implants (CIs) have provided some auditory function to hundreds of thousands of people around the world. Although traditionally carried out only in profoundly deaf patients, the eligibility criteria for implantation have recently been relaxed to include many partially-deaf patients with useful levels of hearing. These patients receive both electrical stimulation from their implant and acoustic stimulation via their residual hearing (electro-acoustic stimulation; EAS) and perform very well. It is unclear how EAS improves speech perception over electrical stimulation alone, and little evidence exists about the nature of the interactions between electric and acoustic stimuli. Furthermore, clinical results suggest that some patients that undergo cochlear implantation lose some, if not all, of their residual hearing, reducing the advantages of EAS over electrical stimulation alone. A reliable animal model with clinically-relevant partial deafness combined with clinical CIs is important to enable these issues to be studied. This paper outlines such a model that has been successfully used in our laboratory. Approach. This paper outlines a battery of techniques used in our laboratory to generate, validate and examine an animal model of partial deafness and chronic CI use. Main results. Ototoxic deafening produced bilaterally symmetrical hearing thresholds in neonatal and adult animals. Electrical activation of the auditory system was confirmed, and all animals were chronically stimulated via adapted clinical CIs. Acoustic compound action potentials (CAPs) were obtained from partially-hearing cochleae, using the CI amplifier. Immunohistochemical analysis allows the effects of deafness and electrical stimulation on cell survival to be studied. Significance. This animal model has applications in EAS research, including investigating the functional interactions between electric and acoustic stimulation, and the development of techniques to maintain residual

  17. 12 CFR 615.5172 - Production credit association and agricultural credit association investment in farmers' notes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit association investment in farmers' notes given to cooperatives and dealers. 615.5172 Section 615....5172 Production credit association and agricultural credit association investment in farmers' notes... farmers and ranchers eligible to borrow from such associations. (b) Such notes and other obligations...

  18. Burnup credit in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conde, J.M.; Recio, M.

    2001-01-01

    The status of development of burnup credit for criticality safety analyses in Spain is described in this paper. Ongoing activities in the country in this field, both national and international, are resumed. Burnup credit is currently being applied to wet storage of PWR fuel, and credit to integral burnable absorbers is given for BWR fuel storage. It is envisaged to apply burnup credit techniques to the new generation of transport casks now in the design phase. The analysis methodologies submitted for the analyses of PWR and BWR fuel wet storage are outlined. Analytical activities in the country are described, as well as international collaborations in this field. Perspectives for future research and development of new applications are finally resumed. (author)

  19. Dual Credit Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Light, Noreen

    2016-01-01

    In 2015, legislation to improve access to dual-credit programs and to reduce disparities in access and completion--particularly for low income and underrepresented students--was enacted. The new law focused on expanding access to College in the High School but acknowledged issues in other dual-credit programs and reinforced the notion that cost…

  20. Completing the Remedial Sequence and College-Level Credit-Bearing Math: Comparing Binary, Cumulative, and Continuation Ratio Logistic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, J. Cody

    2016-01-01

    Mathematics is the most common subject area of remedial need and the majority of remedial math students never pass a college-level credit-bearing math class. The majorities of studies that investigate this phenomenon are conducted at community colleges and use some type of regression model; however, none have used a continuation ratio model. The…

  1. Limited take-up of health coverage tax credits: a challenge to future tax credit design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorn, Stan; Varon, Janet; Pervez, Fouad

    2005-10-01

    The Trade Act of 2002 created federal tax credits to subsidize health coverage for certain early retirees and workers displaced by international trade. Though small, this program offers the opportunity to learn how to design future tax credits for larger groups of uninsured. During September 2004, the most recent month for which there are data about all forms of Trade Act credits, roughly 22 percent of eligible individuals received credits. The authors find that health insurance tax credits are more likely to reach their target populations if such credits: 1) limit premium costs for the low-income uninsured and do not require full premium payments while applications are pending; 2) provide access to coverage that beneficiaries value, including care for preexisting conditions; 3) are combined with outreach that uses easily understandable, multilingual materials and proactive enrollment efforts; and 4) feature a simple application process involving one form filed with one agency.

  2. 12 CFR 614.4125 - Funding and discount relationships between Farm Credit Banks or agricultural credit banks and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., Risk Management, Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation. (f) A direct lender association shall... Administration office that the Chief Examiner designates, and the Director, Risk Management, Farm Credit System... Credit Banks or agricultural credit banks and direct lender associations. 614.4125 Section 614.4125 Banks...

  3. Determinants of credit risk - the case of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jović Željko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines systemic and specific factors that increased the credit risk level in the Serbian banking sector between 2008 and 2014, by applying the vector autoregression model (VAR, logit and probit. Business cycle and RSD depreciation are the most important systemic determinants of credit risk in the corporate sector, while in the retail sector these determinants represent a deterioration of the business and financial situation, based on a rise in the unemployment rate and nonperforming loans, together with domestic currency depreciation and the effects of the solidarity tax. Banks that entered the crisis with a lower level of capital, higher level of portfolio concentration in their 50 biggest borrowers, and with restrictions on the owner supporting the bank by providing additional capital in the period of credit risk increase, have been more exposed to default and more inclined to overestimate their good assets in their reports. The influence of RSD depreciation and the economic interrelation of clients represent an increase in the credit risk level.

  4. Medición de la Alfabetización Económica en Niños: Oportunidades Diagnósticas con el Modelo de Crédito Parcial Measurement of Economic Literacy in Children: Diagnostic Opportunities With Partial Credit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Gempp

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo describe el uso del Modelo de Crédito Parcial (MCP para medir Alfabetización Económica en niños, a través de ítems de Elección Múltiple Ordenada (EMO. Elaboramos ítems EMO basados en un modelo piagetano que propone tres niveles progresivos en el desarrollo de conceptos y razonamiento sobre la economía. En el formato EMO, cada una de las posibles alternativas de respuesta estuvo ligada a una etapa cognitiva de desarrollo del pensamiento económico propuesta por la teoría. Los ítems fueron administrados a 1035 niños, entre 10 a 15 años de edad, y calibrados utilizando el MCP. Los resultados muestran tanto la utilidad de los ítems EMO como la eficiencia del MCP como herramientas para puntuar, analizar e interpretar evaluaciones diagnósticas construidas en un marco de referencia piagetano.This paper describes the use of the Partial Credit Model (PCM to measure Economic Literacy in children, with Ordered Multiple-Choice Items (OMC. We developed OMC items based on a Piagetian model that proposes three progressive levels in the development of concepts and reasoning about the economy. In OMC format, each of the possible answer choices was linked to a cognitive stage of economical thinking proposed by the theory. The items were administered to 1035 children, ages 10 to 15 years, and calibrated using the PCM. The results show both the utility of OMC items and the efficiency of PCM as tools for the score, analysis, and interpretation of diagnostic assessments constructed in a Piagetian framework.

  5. Follow Up: Credit Card Caution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Timothy P.

    2007-01-01

    In "Pushing Plastic," ("The New England Journal of Higher Education", Summer 2007), John Humphrey notes that many college administrators justify their credit card solicitations by suggesting that credit card access will help students learn to manage their own finances. Instead, credit card debt will teach thousands of students…

  6. 49 CFR 260.13 - Credit reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... appropriations, direct payment of a Credit Risk Premium by the Applicant or a non-Federal infrastructure partner... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit reform. 260.13 Section 260.13... REHABILITATION AND IMPROVEMENT FINANCING PROGRAM Overview § 260.13 Credit reform. The Federal Credit Reform Act...

  7. 76 FR 79531 - Corporate Credit Unions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-22

    ... exclude CLF stock subscriptions, based on the asset's negligible credit risk and to facilitate corporate... removing paragraphs (c)(3) and (f)(4) and adding paragraph (h) to read as follows: Sec. 704.6 Credit risk... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 704 RIN 3133-AD95 Corporate Credit Unions AGENCY...

  8. Credit Scoring Problem Based on Regression Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Khassawneh, Bashar Suhil Jad Allah

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This thesis provides an explanatory introduction to the regression models of data mining and contains basic definitions of key terms in the linear, multiple and logistic regression models. Meanwhile, the aim of this study is to illustrate fitting models for the credit scoring problem using simple linear, multiple linear and logistic regression models and also to analyze the found model functions by statistical tools. Keywords: Data mining, linear regression, logistic regression....

  9. Factors influencing Poverty Alleviation among Women Credit Beneficiaries in Tanzania: A Case Study of FINCA’s Women Credit beneficiaries in Mwanza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Nyambega Nyang’au

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Many credit schemes in Tanzania channel their funds to womenwith the objective of alleviating poverty among them. Despite this, majority ofwomen in the country continue to wallow in poverty. The present research wascarried out among the Foundation for International Community Assistance’s womencredit beneficiaries in Mwanza. The study set out to address the followingobjectives: to analyze the influence of the husband’s cooperation, relevanttraining and interest rate on poverty alleviation among women creditbeneficiaries in Tanzania taking Foundation for International CommunityAssistance in Mwanza as a case study. Using simple regression model, resultsshowed that cooperation from the husband as well as relevant training influencespoverty alleviation among women credit beneficiaries in Tanzania by 56 and 36percent respectively. But interest rate was found to have no significantinfluence at all. The paper recommends that seminars be conducted so thathusbands can be taught the importance of cooperating with their wives. Aboveall giving training to women credit beneficiaries will go a long way insharpening their business skills. Future researchers should research onlaziness and complacency among women credit beneficiaries and the influence onpoverty.

  10. A general diagnostic model applied to language testing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Davier, Matthias

    2008-11-01

    Probabilistic models with one or more latent variables are designed to report on a corresponding number of skills or cognitive attributes. Multidimensional skill profiles offer additional information beyond what a single test score can provide, if the reported skills can be identified and distinguished reliably. Many recent approaches to skill profile models are limited to dichotomous data and have made use of computationally intensive estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, since standard maximum likelihood (ML) estimation techniques were deemed infeasible. This paper presents a general diagnostic model (GDM) that can be estimated with standard ML techniques and applies to polytomous response variables as well as to skills with two or more proficiency levels. The paper uses one member of a larger class of diagnostic models, a compensatory diagnostic model for dichotomous and partial credit data. Many well-known models, such as univariate and multivariate versions of the Rasch model and the two-parameter logistic item response theory model, the generalized partial credit model, as well as a variety of skill profile models, are special cases of this GDM. In addition to an introduction to this model, the paper presents a parameter recovery study using simulated data and an application to real data from the field test for TOEFL Internet-based testing.

  11. Your Credit Rights: An Instructional Unit on Consumer Credit Protection. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Barbara J.; And Others

    This instructional guide adds two new sections to the original guide published in May 1982. The guide was designed to assist educators in teaching the topics of consumer credit and consumer credit protection to secondary and postsecondary students in various economics and business courses, as well as in adult and community education courses. The…

  12. 12 CFR 614.4720 - Letters of credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Banks for Cooperatives and Agricultural Credit Banks Financing International Trade § 614.4720 Letters of credit. Banks for cooperatives and agricultural credit banks, under policies adopted by their boards of directors...

  13. Exploiting partial knowledge for efficient model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Macedo, Nuno; Cunha, Alcino; Pessoa, Eduardo José Dias

    2017-01-01

    The advancement of constraint solvers and model checkers has enabled the effective analysis of high-level formal specification languages. However, these typically handle a specification in an opaque manner, amalgamating all its constraints in a single monolithic verification task, which often proves to be a performance bottleneck. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a solving strategy that exploits user-provided partial knowledge, namely by assigning symbolic bounds to the problem’s ...

  14. Linkage of Credit on BI Rate, Funds Rate, Inflation and Government Spending on Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Linkage of credit on BI rate, funds rate, inflation, and government spending on capital provides evidence from Indonesia.  This paper found advance explanation about banks credit as monetary transmission channel and its role on Indonesian economy.  We used credit depth as a ratio of banks credit to GDP nominal, to explain the role of credit in Indonesian economy.  We developed a VAR model to measure the response of credit to BI rate, funds rate and inflation rate, and OLS method to find out how banks credit response to government spending on capital. This paper revealed bi-direction causality between credit and BI rate, credit and funds rate, and credit and inflation.  There is trade-off between credit and BI rate, credit and funds rate, and credit and inflation, but government spending on capital promotes credit depth.  We found that Indonesian banking is bank view, allocated their credit based on their performance, not merely on the monetary policy determined by central bank.  For bank view perspectives, we analyzed the link between LDR as an indicator of credit channel mechanism to NPLs and CAR.  We found that there is no significant effect of CAR to LDR, but has a strong negatively relationship between NPLs to LDR.  This evidence indicates that commercial banks in Indonesia allocated their credit do not related to their capital but merely to the quality of their credit portfolio.

  15. Who Gets the Credit? Who Pays the Consequences? The Illinois Tuition Tax Credit. Special Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Arohi; Keenan, Nancy

    In 1999, Illinois enacted a tuition tax credit program. Tax credit supporters suggest tax credits help low-income students. However, opponents argue that they disproportionately benefit higher-income families whose children are already attending private schools and may decrease already limited resources available to public schools. New data from…

  16. Forecasting the value of credit scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Shakila; Ahmad, Noryati; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays, credit scoring system plays an important role in banking sector. This process is important in assessing the creditworthiness of customers requesting credit from banks or other financial institutions. Usually, the credit scoring is used when customers send the application for credit facilities. Based on the score from credit scoring, bank will be able to segregate the "good" clients from "bad" clients. However, in most cases the score is useful at that specific time only and cannot be used to forecast the credit worthiness of the same applicant after that. Hence, bank will not know if "good" clients will always be good all the time or "bad" clients may become "good" clients after certain time. To fill up the gap, this study proposes an equation to forecast the credit scoring of the potential borrowers at a certain time by using the historical score related to the assumption. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used to measure the accuracy of the forecast scoring. Result shows the forecast scoring is highly accurate as compared to actual credit scoring.

  17. Psychometric analysis of the Patient Health Questionnaire in Danish patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (The DEFIB-WOMEN study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Susanne S; Mathiasen, Kim; Christensen, Karl Bang

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the psychometric properties of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), a measure of depressive symptoms, in a large Danish national cohort of patients with heart disease, implanted with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), using item response theory. METHODS: A ...... of nine items for the partial credit model and five of nine items for the generalized partial credit model, indicating that respondents have difficulty discriminating between response options. When collapsing response options 2 and 3, the rescored PHQ-9 had a better fit to both models....... Three items did not fit the partial credit model, but the generalized partial credit model could be fitted to the full item set. CONCLUSION: The unidimensionality and reliability of the Danish version of the PHQ-9 were confirmed. However, the associated consequences of the number of response options (3...

  18. Managerial entrenchment, external discipline and accounting manipulations in the credit union industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hillier, D.; Hodgson, A.; Stevenson-Clarke, P.

    2005-01-01

    This study examines the extended stakeholder corporate governance model in credit unions and the extent to which inherent managerial entrenchment impacts upon their operational decisions. Using Australian credit union data and the introduction of Basle-type capital adequacy regulations as a case

  19. Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

    OpenAIRE

    Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

    2018-01-01

    As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

  20. Conservative axial burnup distributions for actinide-only burnup credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.; Lancaster, D.

    1997-11-01

    Unlike the fresh fuel approach, which assumes the initial isotopic compositions for criticality analyses, any burnup credit methodology must address the proper treatment of axial burnup distributions. A straightforward way of treating a given axial burnup distribution is to segment the fuel assembly into multiple meshes and to model each burnup mesh with the corresponding isotopic compositions. Although this approach represents a significant increase in modeling efforts compared to the uniform average burnup approach, it can adequately determine the reactivity effect of the axial burnup distribution. A major consideration is what axial burnup distributions are appropriate for use in light of many possible distributions depending on core operating conditions and histories. This paper summarizes criticality analyses performed to determine conservative axial burnup distributions. The conservative axial burnup distributions presented in this paper are included in the Topical Report on Actinide-Only Burnup Credit for Pressurized Water Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Packages, Revision 1 submitted in May 1997 by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). When approved by NRC, the conservative axial burnup distributions may be used to model PWR spent nuclear fuel for the purpose of gaining actinide only burnup credit

  1. Study and optimization of the partial discharges in capacitor model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Page 1 ... experiments methodology for the study of such processes, in view of their modeling and optimization. The obtained result is a mathematical model capable to identify the parameters and the interactions between .... 5mn; the next landing is situated in 200 V over the voltage of partial discharges appearance and.

  2. Strategic production modeling for defective items with imperfect inspection process, rework, and sales return under two-level trade credit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditi Khanna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Quality decisions are one of the major decisions in inventory management. It affects customer’s demand, loyalty and customer satisfaction and also inventory costs. Every manufacturing process is inherent to have some chance causes of variation which may lead to some defectives in the lot. So, in order to cater the customers with faultless products, an inspection process is inevitable, which may also be prone to errors. Thus for an operations manager, maintaining the quality of the lot and the screening process becomes a challenging task, when his objective is to determine the optimal order quantity for the inventory system. Besides these operational tasks, the goal is also to increase the customer base which eventually leads to higher profits. So, as a promotional tool, trade credit is being offered by both the retailer and supplier to their respective customers to encourage more frequent and higher volume purchases. Thus taking into account of these facts, a strategic production model is formulated here to study the combined effects of imperfect quality items, faulty inspection process, rework process, sales return under two level trade credit. The present study is a general framework for many articles and classical EPQ model. An analytical method is employed which jointly optimizes the retailer’s credit period and order quantity, so as to maximize the expected total profit per unit time. To study the behavior and application of the model, a numerical example has been cited and a comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been performed. The model can be widely applicable in manufacturing industries like textile, footwear, plastics, electronics, furniture etc.

  3. The Impact of Credit Constraints on Housing Demand: Assessed with Endogenous Price and Expenditure

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yarui; Leatham, David J.

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses the impact of credit constraints on housing demand with price and expenditure treated as endogenous variables. Using AIDS model, we find the model without controlling for endogeneities tends to underestimate the impact of credit constraint on the budget shares and the estimates are less significant.

  4. CREDIT Performance Indicator Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Anne Kathrine; Bertelsen, Niels Haldor; Haugbølle, Kim

    2010-01-01

    During the past two years the Nordic Baltic research project CREDIT (Construction and Real Estate – Developing Indicators for Transparency) has worked with the aim to improve transparency of value creation in building and real estate. One of the central deliverables of the CREDIT project was a fr......During the past two years the Nordic Baltic research project CREDIT (Construction and Real Estate – Developing Indicators for Transparency) has worked with the aim to improve transparency of value creation in building and real estate. One of the central deliverables of the CREDIT project...... was a framework of indicators relevant in building and real estate and applicable in the Nordic and Baltic countries as well as a proposal for a set of key indicators. The study resulting in CREDIT Performance Indicator Framework has been based on 28 case studies of evaluation practises in the building and real...... estate sector each addressing three interlinked levels: building/ projects level, company or enterprise level and benchmarking system level. Additionally it has been based on dialogue with researchers and professional organisation, international research and standardisation work and national building...

  5. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and activities...

  6. The Fiscal Impact of Tax-Credit Scholarships in Oklahoma. State Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2011-01-01

    This study seeks to provide outcomes-based information on Oklahoma's proposal to give tax credits for contributing to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact…

  7. Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorna Katusiime

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of inflation volatility on private sector credit growth. The results indicate that private sector credit growth is positively linked to the one period lagged inflation volatility. Given that past monetary policy actions continue to affect the targeted variables due to the substantial lags in the transmission mechanism, the positive response of private sector credit growth to past inflation volatility suggests a credible monetary policy regime in Uganda, which has led to a reduction in the level of macroeconomic uncertainty and the restoration of favorable economic conditions and prospects, thus increasing the demand for credit. Further, the study finds that the lagged private sector credit growth, nominal exchange rate, and inflation have a statistically significant effect on private sector credit growth while financial innovation, interest rates, and GDP growth appear not to be important determinants of private sector credit growth. The robustness of our findings is confirmed by sensitivity checks.

  8. 12 CFR 619.9145 - Farm Credit Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Farm Credit Bank. 619.9145 Section 619.9145 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9145 Farm Credit Bank. The term Farm Credit Bank refers to a bank resulting from the mandatory merger of the Federal land...

  9. Centrifuge modeling of LNAPL transport in partially saturated sand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esposito, G.; Allersma, H.G.B.; Selvadurai, A.P.S.

    1999-01-01

    Model tests were performed at the Geotechnical Centrifuge Facility of Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, to examine the mechanics of light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) movement in a partially saturated porous granular medium. The experiment simulated a 2D spill of LNAPL in an

  10. The African Credit Trap

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Andrianova; Badi H. Baltagi; Panicos O. Demetriades; David Fielding

    2010-01-01

    We put forward a plausible explanation of African financial underdevelopment in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Utilising an appropriately modified IO model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse selection (a lack of good projects). We provide empirical evidence from a large panel of African banks which suggests that loan defaults are a major factor inhibiting bank lending when the quality of regulatio...

  11. Avaliação de atitudes de estudantes de psicologia via modelo de crédito parcial da TRI Assessment of psychology students' attitudes through credit partial model of IRT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudette Maria Medeiros Vendramini

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar as atitudes de estudantes de Psicologia em relação a estatística, via modelo de créditos parciais da TRI, e suas relações com a autopercepção e desempenho em estatística. Uma amostra não aleatória de 361 estudantes de Psicologia, com idades de 18 a 65 anos, 81% mulheres e 53% do noturno, respondeu a um questionário de identificação e uma escala de atitudes. A escala é do tipo likert de quatro pontos e composta de 20 itens que expressam os sentimentos em relação a estatística, sendo dez positivos e dez negativos, e um item complementar, que verifica a autopercepção do universitário em relação ao próprio desempenho em estatística. Observou-se que a escala é fidedigna e válida para medir as atitudes. Os participantes apresentaram atitudes ligeiramente mais negativas do que positivas. Constatou-se a existência de correlações positivas e significativas entre atitude, desempenho acadêmico e autopercepção de desempenho.The aim of this work was to assess psychology students' attitudes toward statistics trough credit partial model of IRT, and to identify the association among the students' attitudes, academic performance, and self-perception in Statistics. A not random sample of 361 Psychology students answered the identification questionnaire and the attitudes scale towards Statistics. The students aged 18-65, 81% were female and 53% from evening classes. The likert scale is composed of 20 items, ten positives and ten negatives, which express the feelings towards Statistics. There is one item which verifies the university student's self-perception towards its own performance in Statistics. It was observed that the scale was reliable and valid to measure attitudes. The students presented their attitudes slightly more negative than positive. It was noticed the existence of positive and significant correlations among attitudes, academic performance and performance self-perception.

  12. CORRELATED ANALYSIS OF CLIENT-CREDIT COST WITH THE ONE OF SUPPLIER - CREDIT COST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIRELA MONEA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The given client-credit has associated several types of costs. If a company gives client-credit for a certain period of time, then it will have to finance its activity from other sources. Another aspect is the one related to the size of allotted sum. The sum that must be covered does not equal the turnover. The impact on financing the operating cycle is found usually only under the form of expenses which are made up of variable costs (because amortization must not be paid, the profit is included in the price. Thus, the sum which must be covered is not related to the non-cashed turnover from the client-credit, but only to variable costs. This will be the sum that must be covered from the financing sources. Supplier-credit is a source attracted, usually it has no cost.

  13. Trade credit supply, market power and the matching of trade credit terms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fabbri, D.; Klapper, L.F.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the decision of firms to extend trade credit to customers and its relation with their financing decisions. We use a novel firm-level database with unique information on market power in both output and input markets and on the amount, terms and payment history of trade credit

  14. A new Bayesian model applied to cytogenetic partial body irradiation estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Vinnikov, Volodymyr A.; Rothkamm, Kai

    2016-01-01

    A new zero-inflated Poisson model is introduced for the estimation of partial body irradiation dose and fraction of body irradiated. The Bayes factors are introduced as tools to help determine whether a data set of chromosomal aberrations obtained from a blood sample reflects partial or whole body irradiation. Two examples of simulated cytogenetic radiation exposure data are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of this methodology in cytogenetic biological dosimetry. (authors)

  15. An application of data mining classification and bi-level programming for optimal credit allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mahdi Sadatrasou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates credit allocation policy making and its effect on economic development using bi-level programming. There are two challenging problems in bi-level credit allocation; at the first level government/public related institutes must allocate the credit strategically concerning sustainable development to regions and industrial sectors. At the second level, there are agent banks, which should allocate the credit tactically to individual applicants based on their own profitability and risk using their credit scoring models. There is a conflict of interest between these two stakeholders but the cooperation is inevitable. In this paper, a new bi-level programming formulation of the leader-follower game in association with sustainable development theory in the first level and data mining classifier at the second level is used to mathematically model the problem. The model is applied to a national development fund (NDF as a government related organization and one of its agent banks. A new algorithm called Bi-level Genetic fuzzy apriori Algorithm (BGFAA is introduced to solve the bilateral model. Experimental results are presented and compared with a unilateral policy making scenario by the leader. Findings show that although the objective functions of the leader are worse in the bilateral scenario but agent banks collaboration is attracted and guaranteed.

  16. Credit Card Risk Behavior on College Campuses: Evidence from Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley Mendes-da-Silva

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available College students frequently show they have little skill when it comes to using a credit card in a responsible manner. This article deals with this issue in an emerging market and in a pioneering manner. University students (n = 769 in São Paulo, Brazil’s main financial center, replied to a questionnaire about their credit card use habits. Using Logit models, associations were discovered between personal characteristics and credit card use habits that involve financially risky behavior. The main results were: (a a larger number of credit cards increases the probability of risky behavior; (b students who alleged they knew what interest rates the card administrators were charging were less inclined to engage in risky behavior. The results are of interest to the financial industry, to university managers and to policy makers. This article points to the advisability, indeed necessity, of providing students with information about the use of financial products (notably credit cards bearing in mind the high interest rates which their users are charged. The findings regarding student behavior in the use of credit cards in emerging economies are both significant and relevant. Furthermore, financial literature, while recognizing the importance of the topic, has not significantly examined the phenomenon in emerging economies.

  17. Estimating varying coefficients for partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-09-01

    Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model complex dynamical systems in multiple dimensions, and their parameters often have important scientific interpretations. In some applications, PDE parameters are not constant but can change depending on the values of covariates, a feature that we call varying coefficients. We propose a parameter cascading method to estimate varying coefficients in PDE models from noisy data. Our estimates of the varying coefficients are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The performance of our method is evaluated by a simulation study and by an empirical study estimating three varying coefficients in a PDE model arising from LIDAR data. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Did Globalization Influence Credit Market Deregulation

    OpenAIRE

    Eppinger, Peter; Potrafke, Niklas

    2015-01-01

    We investigate whether globalization influenced credit market deregulation over the period 1970-2010. Globalization is measured by the KOF indices of globalization. Credit market deregulation is measured by the credit market freedom indicators of the Fraser Institute. The results from both cross-sectional and panel regressions using ordinary least squares indicate a positive correlation between globalization and credit market deregulation. We account for reverse causality by using predicted t...

  19. Service quality in consumer's credit branch

    OpenAIRE

    Blechová, Věra

    2008-01-01

    The diploma thesis deals with consumer's credit grants of banking and non-banking corporations and comparison of their service quality. The first part of research is dedicated to consumer's knowledge of credit issues. Second describes main difficulties of consumer's credit grants of banking and non-banking corporations and proves their use of unfair manners. The final part of thesis propose improvements, which will boost consumer's protection on field of consumer's credits.

  20. An EPQ Inventory Model with Allowable Shortages for Deteriorating Items under Trade Credit Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Molamohamadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to obtain the replenishment policy of a manufacturer under EPQ inventory model with backorder. It is assumed here that the manufacturer delays paying for the received goods from the supplier and the items start deteriorating as soon as they are being produced. Based on these assumptions, the manufacturer’s inventory model is formulated, and cuckoo search algorithm is applied then to find the replenishment time, order quantity, and selling price with the objective of maximizing the manufacturer’s total net profit. Besides, the traditional inventory system is shown as a special case of the proposed model in this paper, and numerical examples are given to demonstrate better performance of trade credit. These examples are also used to compare the results of cuckoo search algorithm with genetic algorithm and investigate the effects of the model parameters on its variables and net profit.

  1. A Cognitive Analysis of Credit Card Acquisition and College Student Financial Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, Blair; Turrisi, Robert

    2000-01-01

    Examines cognitions relevant to credit card decision making in college-aged participants (N=304). Assesses measures of beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral alternatives toward acquiring a credit card. Identifies a multivariate model predicting college student financial development of the attitudes and behavioral tendencies of acquiring a new card.…

  2. Impacts of Credit Default Swaps on Volatility of the Exchange Rate in Turkey: The Case of Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhsin Kar

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of credit default swaps (CDS premium as a risk financial indicator on the fluctuations of value of the Turkish lira against the Euro. We try to answer the following questions: Is the CDS premium change among the drivers of EUR/TL exchange rate and what are the possible effects of CDS premium volatility on EUR/TL exchange rate stability in different conditions? In this regard, we developed a MS-VAR regime change model and asymmetric, frequency domain and rolling windows causality analysis methods. Results obtained from all tests imply that risk premium is partially a driver of the EUR/TL exchange rate between the years 2009 and 2015.

  3. Value of burnup credit beyond actinides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, D.; Fuentes, E.; Kang, Chi.

    1997-01-01

    DOE has submitted a topical report to the NRC justifying burnup credit based only on actinide isotopes (U-234, U-235, U-236, U-238, Pu-238, Pu-239, Pu-240, Pu-241, Pu-242, and Am-241). When this topical report is approved, it will allow a great deal of the commercial spent nuclear fuel to be transported in significantly higher capacity casks. A cost savings estimate for shipping fuel in 32 assembly (burnup credit) casks as opposed to 24 assembly (non-burnup credit) casks was previously presented. Since that time, more detailed calculations have been performed using the methodology presented in the Actinide-Only Burnup Credit Topical Report. Loading curves for derated casks have been generated using actinide-only burnup credit and are presented in this paper. The estimates of cost savings due to burnup credit for shipping fuel utilizing 32, 30, 28, and 24 assembly casks where only the 24 assembly cask does not burnup credit have been created and are discussed. 4 refs., 2 figs

  4. Mathematical Modeling of Partial-Porous Circular Cylinders with Water Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Su Park

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of water waves with partially porous-surfaced circular cylinders was investigated. A three-dimensional numerical modeling was developed based on the complete mathematical formulation of the eigenfunction expansion method in the potential flow. Darcy’s law was applied to describe the porous boundary. The partial-porous cylinder is composed of a porous-surfaced body near the free surface, and an impermeable-surfaced body with an end-capped rigid bottom below the porous region. The optimal ratio of the porous portion to the impermeable portion can be adopted to design an effective ocean structure with minimal hydrodynamic impact. To scrutinize the hydrodynamic interactions in N partial-porous circular cylinders, the computational fluid domain is divided into three regions: an exterior region, N inner porous body regions, and N regions beneath the body. Wave excitation forces and wave run-up on multibodied partial-porous cylinders are calculated and compared for various porous-portion ratios and wave conditions, all of which significantly influence the hydrodynamic property.

  5. Essays on the U.S. Housing Market and the Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Chuanlei

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation includes three chapters. The first two chapters focus on the U.S. housing market and the credit market and the third chapter emphasizes interest rate cycles and stock market cycles in the U.S.Chapter 2 proposes a dynamic factor model to study the U.S. housing market and the credit market separately in the last decades. The model extracts the latent unobserved state representing each market from an array of key related variables. The extracted factor from each market is compa...

  6. Sadhana | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Trade-credit modeling for deteriorating item inventory system with preservation ... deterioration; preservation technology; trade-credit policy; partial backlogging. ... item inventory model with preservation technology and trade-credit finance.

  7. Factors associated with blood oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure regulation during respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support: data from a swine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Marcelo; Mendes, Pedro Vitale; Costa, Eduardo Leite Vieira; Barbosa, Edzangela Vasconcelos Santos; Hirota, Adriana Sayuri; Azevedo, Luciano Cesar Pontes

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the factors associated with blood oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure. The factors associated with oxygen - and carbon dioxide regulation were investigated in an apneic pig model under veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. A predefined sequence of blood and sweep flows was tested. Oxygenation was mainly associated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation blood flow (beta coefficient = 0.036mmHg/mL/min), cardiac output (beta coefficient = -11.970mmHg/L/min) and pulmonary shunting (beta coefficient = -0.232mmHg/%). Furthermore, the initial oxygen partial pressure and carbon dioxide partial pressure measurements were also associated with oxygenation, with beta coefficients of 0.160 and 0.442mmHg/mmHg, respectively. Carbon dioxide partial pressure was associated with cardiac output (beta coefficient = 3.578mmHg/L/min), sweep gas flow (beta coefficient = -2.635mmHg/L/min), temperature (beta coefficient = 4.514mmHg/ºC), initial pH (beta coefficient = -66.065mmHg/0.01 unit) and hemoglobin (beta coefficient = 6.635mmHg/g/dL). In conclusion, elevations in blood and sweep gas flows in an apneic veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation model resulted in an increase in oxygen partial pressure and a reduction in carbon dioxide partial pressure 2, respectively. Furthermore, without the possibility of causal inference, oxygen partial pressure was negatively associated with pulmonary shunting and cardiac output, and carbon dioxide partial pressure was positively associated with cardiac output, core temperature and initial hemoglobin.

  8. 12 CFR 619.9140 - Farm Credit bank(s).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Farm Credit bank(s). 619.9140 Section 619.9140 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9140 Farm Credit bank(s). Except as otherwise defined, the term Farm Credit bank(s) includes Farm Credit Banks...

  9. Bank Credit and Aggregate Import Demand in Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Chimobi Omoke

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study reformulated the aggregate import demand for Nigeria by including a financial variable (bank credit into the traditional import demand function for the period 1970-2009. The Johansen Multivariate cointegration analysis was used to estimate the function. The result obtained from the study shows no evidence of the existence of cointegrating relations between bank credit and import demand. This shows that bank credit is found to be insufficient as a policy instrument for long term import demand in Nigeria. Thus, the financial variable should not be included in modelling the aggregate import demand for Nigeria.

  10. Credit Rating and Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Nelson Camanho; Pragyan Deb; Zijun Liu

    2010-01-01

    In principle, credit rating agencies are supposed to be impartial observers that bridge the gap between private information of issuers and the information available to the wider pool of investors. However, since the 1970s, rating agencies have relied on an issuer-pay model, creating a conflict of interest the largest source of income for the rating agencies are the fees paid by the issuers the rating agencies are supposed to impartially rate. In this paper, we explore the trade-off between re...

  11. Credit Cycle and Adverse Selection Effects in Consumer Credit Markets – Evidence from the HELOC Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calem, P.; Cannon, M.; Nakamura, L.I.

    2011-01-01

    We empirically study how the underlying riskiness of the pool of home equity line of credit originations is affected over the credit cycle. Drawing from the largest existing database of U.S. home equity lines of credit, we use county-level aggregates of these loans to estimate panel regressions on

  12. Estimation of influence of banks' recourse potential upon their credit and investment portfolio

    OpenAIRE

    Petro Karas'; Nataliya Prykhod'ko

    2015-01-01

    In the article the negative trends of the Ukrainian banking system functioning caused by the crisis phenomena are considered. The analysis of credit and investment portfolio and resource potential of Ukrainian banks is carried out. Main problems of this process are identified. Influence of the banks' resource potential upon credit and investment portfolio is estimated by constructing multivariate correlation-regression models. The proposals for the government regulation of the bank's credit a...

  13. The Adoption of agricultural credit cooperativism in Spain (1890-1935) : solidarity from below?

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez Soto, Ángel; Martínez Rodríguez, Susana

    2008-01-01

    The spread of agrarian credit cooperativism in Spain (1890-1934) was done under a variety of ideological and economic orientations. This article focuses on the construction of a few tools and indicators to explain the characteristics of agricultural credit cooperatives. An analysis of financial operations of rural savings banks is related with socio-political aspects that influenced their development; This analysis helps us to explain the relative success of German credit cooperative models a...

  14. Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Jin, Xisong

    2018-01-01

    We characterize dependence in corporate credit and equity returns for 215 firms using a new class of large-scale dynamic copula models. Copula dependence and especially tail dependence are highly variable and persistent, increase significantly in the financial crisis, and have remained high since...

  15. Precautionary Borrowing and the Credit Card Debt Puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Druedahl, Jeppe; Jørgensen, Casper Nordal

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the credit card debt puzzle using a generalization of the buffer-stock consumption model with long-term revolving debt contracts. Closely resembling actual US credit card law, we assume that card issuers can always deny their cardholders access to new debt, but that they cannot...... to simultaneously hold positive gross debt and positive gross assets even though the interest rate on the debt is much higher than the return rate on the assets. Including a risk of being excluded from new borrowing which is positively correlated with unemployment, we are able to simultaneously explain...

  16. 24 CFR 206.37 - Credit standing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... CONVERSION MORTGAGE INSURANCE Eligibility; Endorsement Eligible Mortgagors § 206.37 Credit standing. Each mortgagor must have a general credit standing satisfactory to the Secretary. ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Credit standing. 206.37 Section 206...

  17. 78 FR 25101 - Credit Ratings Roundtable

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-29

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-69433; File No. 4-661] Credit Ratings... examine issues in connection with the possibility of developing a credit rating assignment system. The... FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Scott Davey at (212) 336-0075, Office of Credit Ratings, Securities and...

  18. KARAKTERISTIK PERUSAHAAN DAN CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erma Wahdani Permanasari

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of characteristic of firm to the level of creditrisk. Characteristics of the firm is proxied by size, leverage, spread ownership, net profit margin,return on equity, industry type and scope of the company’s operations. Measurement of level creditrisk uses PT Pefindo bond rating. Annual reports of listed companies in PT Pefindo and IndonesiaStock Exchange (IDX 2010-2011 are collected based on purposive sampling techniques. Thepopulation is 238 companies. Sample used amounted to 84 companies. The analysis model usedin this study is multiple linear regression. Results of this study indicate that the level of corporatecredit risk in Indonesia is high because it is below the 50.00%. The test result of multiple regressionshowed that firm of characteristic affect the level of credit risk. Firm characteristics that affectthe level of credit risk are size, leverage, dispersion of ownership, net profit margin and returnon equity.

  19. Unidimensional factor models imply weaker partial correlations than zero-order correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bork, Riet; Grasman, Raoul P P P; Waldorp, Lourens J

    2018-06-01

    In this paper we present a new implication of the unidimensional factor model. We prove that the partial correlation between two observed variables that load on one factor given any subset of other observed variables that load on this factor lies between zero and the zero-order correlation between these two observed variables. We implement this result in an empirical bootstrap test that rejects the unidimensional factor model when partial correlations are identified that are either stronger than the zero-order correlation or have a different sign than the zero-order correlation. We demonstrate the use of the test in an empirical data example with data consisting of fourteen items that measure extraversion.

  20. Agricultural Credit Discount Fund – Agribusiness support credit line - Macedonian experience

    OpenAIRE

    Kovachev, Goran

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to emphasize the importance of creating special governmental refinancing institutions targeted towards strategic economic sectors. Such institution in Macedonia is Agricultural Credit Discount Fund, a separate unit within the Macedonian Bank for Development Promotion that administers a credit line meant to support the agribusiness. As it is commonly known agriculture is one of the most important economic sectors of the country. The ACDF's 'modus operandi' i...

  1. Corporate ownership as a means to solve adverse selection problems in a model of asymmetric information and credit rationing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gangopadhyay, Shubashis; Lensink, Robert

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes an asymmetric information model where the financing needs of entrepreneurs are obtained from two sources. We show that adverse selection is only important if the credit constraint of banks is not too tight. Next, we show that banks can induce a pattern of corporate ownership,

  2. A Mechanism for Anonymous Credit Card Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Shinsuke; Yanase, Tatsuro

    This paper proposes a mechanism for anonymous credit card systems, in which each credit card holder can conceal individual transactions from the credit card company, while enabling the credit card company to calculate the total expenditures of transactions of individual card holders during specified periods, and to identify card holders who executed dishonest transactions. Based on three existing mechanisms, i.e. anonymous authentication, blind signature and secure statistical data gathering, together with implicit transaction links proposed here, the proposed mechanism enables development of anonymous credit card systems without assuming any absolutely trustworthy entity like tamper resistant devices or organizations faithful both to the credit card company and card holders.

  3. 75 FR 64785 - Corporate Credit Unions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-20

    ... management (ALM) and credit risk, and whether to make modifications in the area of corporate governance. NCUA... the revisions, an analysis of how the final investment, credit risk, and asset liability provisions..., credit risk, ALM, liquidity, and capital measures that together should greatly reduce the systemic risk...

  4. 12 CFR 706.2 - Unfair credit practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Unfair credit practices. 706.2 Section 706.2 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS CREDIT... attachment, execution, or other process on real or personal property held, owned by, or due to the consumer...

  5. Trade credit, collateral liquidation and borrowing constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fabbri, D.; Menichini, A.M.C.

    2009-01-01

    The paper proposes a model of collateralized bank and trade credit. Firms use a two-input technology. Assuming that the supplier is better able to extract value from existing assets and has an information advantage over other creditors, the paper derives a series of predictions. (1) Financially

  6. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  7. Partial least squares path modeling basic concepts, methodological issues and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Noonan, Richard

    2017-01-01

    This edited book presents the recent developments in partial least squares-path modeling (PLS-PM) and provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the most advanced research related to PLS-PM. The first section of this book emphasizes the basic concepts and extensions of the PLS-PM method. The second section discusses the methodological issues that are the focus of the recent development of the PLS-PM method. The third part discusses the real world application of the PLS-PM method in various disciplines. The contributions from expert authors in the field of PLS focus on topics such as the factor-based PLS-PM, the perfect match between a model and a mode, quantile composite-based path modeling (QC-PM), ordinal consistent partial least squares (OrdPLSc), non-symmetrical composite-based path modeling (NSCPM), modern view for mediation analysis in PLS-PM, a multi-method approach for identifying and treating unobserved heterogeneity, multigroup analysis (PLS-MGA), the assessment of the common method b...

  8. 76 FR 24089 - Credit Risk Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-29

    ... 17 CFR Part 246 Department of Housing and Urban Development 24 CFR Part 267 Credit Risk Retention... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC..., Commission, FHFA, and HUD (the Agencies) are proposing rules to implement the credit risk retention...

  9. 40 CFR 91.1307 - Credit calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... family in kW (sales weighted). The power of each configuration is the rated output in kilowatts as....1307 Credit calculation. For each participating engine family, emission credits (positive or negative... for an engine family whether generating positive or negative in-use emission credits: ER04oc96.053...

  10. Influence of credit scoring on the dynamics of Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galina, Timofeeva

    2015-11-01

    Markov processes are widely used to model the dynamics of a credit portfolio and forecast the portfolio risk and profitability. In the Markov chain model the loan portfolio is divided into several groups with different quality, which determined by presence of indebtedness and its terms. It is proposed that dynamics of portfolio shares is described by a multistage controlled system. The article outlines mathematical formalization of controls which reflect the actions of the bank's management in order to improve the loan portfolio quality. The most important control is the organization of approval procedure of loan applications. The credit scoring is studied as a control affecting to the dynamic system. Different formalizations of "good" and "bad" consumers are proposed in connection with the Markov chain model.

  11. Hidden physics models: Machine learning of nonlinear partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raissi, Maziar; Karniadakis, George Em

    2018-03-01

    While there is currently a lot of enthusiasm about "big data", useful data is usually "small" and expensive to acquire. In this paper, we present a new paradigm of learning partial differential equations from small data. In particular, we introduce hidden physics models, which are essentially data-efficient learning machines capable of leveraging the underlying laws of physics, expressed by time dependent and nonlinear partial differential equations, to extract patterns from high-dimensional data generated from experiments. The proposed methodology may be applied to the problem of learning, system identification, or data-driven discovery of partial differential equations. Our framework relies on Gaussian processes, a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions, that enables us to strike a balance between model complexity and data fitting. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a variety of canonical problems, spanning a number of scientific domains, including the Navier-Stokes, Schrödinger, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, and time dependent linear fractional equations. The methodology provides a promising new direction for harnessing the long-standing developments of classical methods in applied mathematics and mathematical physics to design learning machines with the ability to operate in complex domains without requiring large quantities of data.

  12. Robust-BD Estimation and Inference for General Partially Linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunming Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The classical quadratic loss for the partially linear model (PLM and the likelihood function for the generalized PLM are not resistant to outliers. This inspires us to propose a class of “robust-Bregman divergence (BD” estimators of both the parametric and nonparametric components in the general partially linear model (GPLM, which allows the distribution of the response variable to be partially specified, without being fully known. Using the local-polynomial function estimation method, we propose a computationally-efficient procedure for obtaining “robust-BD” estimators and establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the “robust-BD” estimator of the parametric component β o . For inference procedures of β o in the GPLM, we show that the Wald-type test statistic W n constructed from the “robust-BD” estimators is asymptotically distribution free under the null, whereas the likelihood ratio-type test statistic Λ n is not. This provides an insight into the distinction from the asymptotic equivalence (Fan and Huang 2005 between W n and Λ n in the PLM constructed from profile least-squares estimators using the non-robust quadratic loss. Numerical examples illustrate the computational effectiveness of the proposed “robust-BD” estimators and robust Wald-type test in the appearance of outlying observations.

  13. A Comparison of Exposure Control Procedures in CAT Systems Based on Different Measurement Models for Testlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Aimee M.; Dodd, Barbara; Fitzpatrick, Steven

    2013-01-01

    This study compared several exposure control procedures for CAT systems based on the three-parameter logistic testlet response theory model (Wang, Bradlow, & Wainer, 2002) and Masters' (1982) partial credit model when applied to a pool consisting entirely of testlets. The exposure control procedures studied were the modified within 0.10 logits…

  14. A simple procedure to model water level fluctuations in partially inundated wetlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spieksma, JFM; Schouwenaars, JM

    When modelling groundwater behaviour in wetlands, there are specific problems related to the presence of open water in small-sized mosaic patterns. A simple quasi two-dimensional model to predict water level fluctuations in partially inundated wetlands is presented. In this model, the ratio between

  15. Inequality in Human Capital and Endogenous Credit Constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hai, Rong; Heckman, James J

    2017-04-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of inequality in human capital with an emphasis on the role of the credit constraints. We develop and estimate a model in which individuals face uninsured human capital risks and invest in education, acquire work experience, accumulate assets and smooth consumption. Agents can borrow from the private lending market and from government student loan programs. The private market credit limit is explicitly derived by extending the natural borrowing limit of Aiyagari (1994) to incorporate endogenous labor supply, human capital accumulation, psychic costs of working, and age. We quantify the effects of cognitive ability, noncognitive ability, parental education, and parental wealth on educational attainment, wages, and consumption. We conduct counterfactual experiments with respect to tuition subsidies and enhanced student loan limits and evaluate their effects on educational attainment and inequality. We compare the performance of our model with an influential ad hoc model in the literature with education-specific fixed loan limits. We find evidence of substantial life cycle credit constraints that affect human capital accumulation and inequality. The constrained fall into two groups: those who are permanently poor over their lifetimes and a group of well-endowed individuals with rising high levels of acquired skills who are constrained early in their life cycles. Equalizing cognitive and noncognitive ability has dramatic effects on inequality. Equalizing parental backgrounds has much weaker effects. Tuition costs have weak effects on inequality.

  16. 20 CFR 227.5 - Employer tax credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Employer tax credits. 227.5 Section 227.5... SUPPLEMENTAL ANNUITIES § 227.5 Employer tax credits. Employers are entitled to tax credits if they pay non.... The tax credits for each month equal the sum of the reductions for employer pensions in the...

  17. 40 CFR 1045.705 - How do I generate and calculate exhaust emission credits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... during the model year, as described in § 1045.701(j). Power = maximum engine power for the family, in... manufacturer. (a) For each participating family, calculate positive or negative emission credits relative to the otherwise applicable emission standard. Calculate positive emission credits for a family that has...

  18. A chiral quark model for meson electroproduction in the S11 partial wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golli, B.; Sirca, S.

    2011-01-01

    We calculate the meson scattering and electroproduction amplitudes in the S11 partial wave in a coupled-channel approach that incorporates quasi-bound quark-model states. Using the quark wave functions and the quark-meson interaction from the Cloudy Bag Model, we obtain a good overall agreement with the available experimental results for the partial widths of the N(1535) and the N(1650) resonances as well as for the pion, eta and kaon electroproduction amplitudes. Our model is consistent with the N(1535) resonance being dominantly a genuine three-quark state rather than a quasi-bound state of mesons and baryons. (orig.)

  19. 76 FR 34010 - Credit Risk Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-10

    ... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC... credit risk retention requirements of section 15G of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as added by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (``Credit Risk NPR'' or ``proposed rule...

  20. 48 CFR 1632.607 - Tax credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Tax credit. 1632.607... 1632.607 Tax credit. FAR 32.607 has no practical application to FEHBP contracts. The statutory... may not offset debts to the Fund by a tax credit which is solely a Government obligation. ...

  1. Effects of trust fund model credit intervention on welfare of farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... recommended that the administrative bottlenecks associated with fund release and processing of interest drawback be addressed. Also, amount loanable should be increased, while condition of collateral counterpart funding be relaxed. Keywords: Agricultural credit, Per capital expenditure, Core poor, Household welfare ...

  2. PROBLEMS AND OBSTACLES IN CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN INDIAN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RENU ARORA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the credit risk management (CRM practices of Indian public sector banks in grant of commercial loans to find the grey areas which need review and restructuring to improve banks’ asset quality. Based on literature review, a conceptual model of credit risk management systems for commercial loans, of Indian public sector banks, has been developed. This model has been used to underline the problems areas and obstacles in credit risk management through comparison of large and small banks. The empirical comparison of CRM practices of Indian public sector banks has resulted into emergence of various grey areas, like insufficient training, data management, inappropriate IT support, system disintegration, inconsistent rating approaches, which need immediate attention and if tackled properly, can reduce their non-performing assets.

  3. Systematic and Idiosyncratic Default Risk in Synthetic Credit Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feldhütter, Peter; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    2012-01-01

    We present a new estimation approach that allows us to extract from spreads in synthetic credit markets the contribution of systematic and idiosyncratic default risk to total default risk. Using an extensive dataset of 90,600 credit default swap and collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranche...... spreads on the North American Investment Grade CDX index, we conduct an empirical analysis of an intensity-based model for correlated defaults. Our results show that systematic default risk is an explosive process with low volatility, while idiosyncratic default risk is more volatile but less explosive...

  4. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

  5. 11 CFR 100.55 - Extension of credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... substantially similar to extensions of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extension of credit. 100.55 Section 100.55... Contribution (2 U.S.C. 431(8)) § 100.55 Extension of credit. The extension of credit by any person is a...

  6. Competition in the Dutch consumer credit market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toolsema-Veldman, Linda

    2002-01-01

    This paper considers the degree of competitiveness of the Dutch consumer credit market. We use the well-known Bresnahan-Lau method that estimates a structural model consisting of a demand relation and a supply relation, based on aggregate data. The level of competition is derived from the estimated

  7. Competition in the Dutch consumer credit market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toolsema-Veldman, Linda

    2001-01-01

    This paper considers the degree of competitiveness of the Dutch consumer credit market. We use the well-known I Bresnahan-Lau method that estimates it structural model consisting of a demand relation and a supply relation, based on aggregate data. The level of compelition is derived from the

  8. The investment tax credit under monopolistic competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, DP; Heijdra, BJ

    This pager develops a dynamic model of monopolistic competition with finite lives. It investigates the welfare properties of an investment tax credit (ITC) for both finite and infinite lives. For infinite lives, it shows that, lacking lump-sum taxes, an ITC suffices to attain a second-best solution.

  9. Credit in Acceptance Sampling on Attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, Chris A.J.

    2000-01-01

    Credit is introduced in acceptance sampling on attributes and a Credit Based Acceptance sampling system is developed that is very easy to apply in practice.The credit of a producer is defined as the total number of items accepted since the last rejection.In our sampling system the sample size for a

  10. 48 CFR 2132.607 - Tax credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Tax credit. 2132.607... Contract Debts 2132.607 Tax credit. FAR 32.607 has no practical application to FEGLI Program contracts. The... Government, contractors may not offset debts to the Fund by a tax credit that is solely a Government...

  11. Multi-scale diffuse interface modeling of multi-component two-phase flow with partial miscibility

    KAUST Repository

    Kou, Jisheng; Sun, Shuyu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a diffuse interface model to simulate multi-component two-phase flow with partial miscibility based on a realistic equation of state (e.g. Peng-Robinson equation of state). Because of partial miscibility, thermodynamic

  12. Modeling biological gradient formation: combining partial differential equations and Petri nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertens, Laura M F; Kleijn, Jetty; Hille, Sander C; Heiner, Monika; Koutny, Maciej; Verbeek, Fons J

    2016-01-01

    Both Petri nets and differential equations are important modeling tools for biological processes. In this paper we demonstrate how these two modeling techniques can be combined to describe biological gradient formation. Parameters derived from partial differential equation describing the process of gradient formation are incorporated in an abstract Petri net model. The quantitative aspects of the resulting model are validated through a case study of gradient formation in the fruit fly.

  13. 12 CFR 226.12 - Special credit card provisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Special credit card provisions. 226.12 Section... SYSTEM TRUTH IN LENDING (REGULATION Z) Open-End Credit § 226.12 Special credit card provisions. (a) Issuance of credit cards. Regardless of the purpose for which a credit card is to be used, including...

  14. 76 FR 54991 - Corporate Credit Unions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-06

    ... believes the credit risk of carrying this asset is negligible and warrants such treatment, as CLF stock is... credit union excludes the consolidated assets of such programs from risk-weighted assets pursuant to... paragraphs (c)(3) and (f)(4) and adding new p(h) to read as follows: Sec. 704.6 Credit risk management...

  15. Mammography screening credit card and compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schapira, D V; Kumar, N B; Clark, R A; Yag, C

    1992-07-15

    Screening for breast cancer using mammography has been shown to be effective in reducing mortality from breast cancer. The authors attempted to determine if use of a wallet-size plastic screening "credit" card would increase participants' compliance for subsequent mammograms when compared with traditional methods of increasing compliance. Two hundred and twenty consecutive women, ages 40-70 years, undergoing their first screening mammography were recruited and assigned randomly to four groups receiving (1) a reminder plastic credit card (2) reminder credit card with written reminder; (3) appointment card; and (4) verbal recommendation. Return rates of the four groups were determined after 15 months. The return rate for subsequent mammograms was significantly higher for participants (72.4%) using the credit card than for participants (39.8%) exposed to traditional encouragement/reminders (P less than 0.0001). The credit card was designed to show the participant's screening anniversary, and the durability of the card may have been a factor in increasing the return rate. The use of reminder credit cards may increase compliance for periodic screening examinations for other cancers and other chronic diseases.

  16. The Component Slope Linear Model for Calculating Intensive Partial Molar Properties: Application to Waste Glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, Jacob G.

    2013-01-01

    Partial molar properties are the changes occurring when the fraction of one component is varied while the fractions of all other component mole fractions change proportionally. They have many practical and theoretical applications in chemical thermodynamics. Partial molar properties of chemical mixtures are difficult to measure because the component mole fractions must sum to one, so a change in fraction of one component must be offset with a change in one or more other components. Given that more than one component fraction is changing at a time, it is difficult to assign a change in measured response to a change in a single component. In this study, the Component Slope Linear Model (CSLM), a model previously published in the statistics literature, is shown to have coefficients that correspond to the intensive partial molar properties. If a measured property is plotted against the mole fraction of a component while keeping the proportions of all other components constant, the slope at any given point on a graph of this curve is the partial molar property for that constituent. Actually plotting this graph has been used to determine partial molar properties for many years. The CSLM directly includes this slope in a model that predicts properties as a function of the component mole fractions. This model is demonstrated by applying it to the constant pressure heat capacity data from the NaOH-NaAl(OH 4 H 2 O system, a system that simplifies Hanford nuclear waste. The partial molar properties of H 2 O, NaOH, and NaAl(OH) 4 are determined. The equivalence of the CSLM and the graphical method is verified by comparing results detennined by the two methods. The CSLM model has been previously used to predict the liquidus temperature of spinel crystals precipitated from Hanford waste glass. Those model coefficients are re-interpreted here as the partial molar spinel liquidus temperature of the glass components

  17. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  18. 27 CFR 46.223 - Tax credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Tax credit. 46.223 Section... for Sale on April 1, 2009 Tax Liability Calculation § 46.223 Tax credit. The dealer is allowed a credit of up to $500 against the total floor stocks tax. However, controlled groups are eligible for only...

  19. Indian Kisan Credit Card Scheme: An Analytical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmendra Mehta

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Kisan Credit Card (KCC has now been regarded as the only medium of short-term credit for agriculture. The Kisan Credit Card (KCC scheme was introduced by the Finance Minister in his budget speech in the year 1998-99. From the year 1998-99, the scheme was implemented by public sector commercial banks, RRBs (Regional Rural Banks and cooperative banks in the country. It has emerged as an innovative credit distribution system to meet the production credit requirements of the farmers in a timely and easy manner. The present paper is aimed to study role of Kisan Credit Card in the rural credit facilitation in India.

  20. THE COOPERATIVE CREDIT MUTUAL IN BRAZIL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laércio Baptista da Silva

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an analysis of the reality of credit unions in Brazil, in view of the singular importance of credit unions for the whole society as an alternative to private resources in favor of members of the community where they are located. It confirms that, in Brazil, the mutual credit unions, besides being presented as one of the viable options within the financial system, are also seen as an alternative by which some sectors of society promote the humanization of the financial system by offering credit and return on capital with fairer interest rates.

  1. Partial order infinitary term rewriting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahr, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    We study an alternative model of infinitary term rewriting. Instead of a metric on terms, a partial order on partial terms is employed to formalise convergence of reductions. We consider both a weak and a strong notion of convergence and show that the metric model of convergence coincides with th...... to the metric setting -- orthogonal systems are both infinitarily confluent and infinitarily normalising in the partial order setting. The unique infinitary normal forms that the partial order model admits are Böhm trees....

  2. Solar tax credits: the U.S. experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sallmen Smith, L.J.

    1990-01-01

    From 1978 to 1985, the U.S. Federal government used income tax credits to induce taxpayers to purchase residential solar energy devices. These credits resulted in a significant number of households installing solar devices during the credit period but subsequently devastated the solar industry. Numerous structural problems with the credits and the failure to address important issues in the legislation led to this result. (Author)

  3. Optimal transfer, ordering and payment policies for joint supplier-buyer inventory model with price-sensitive trapezoidal demand and net credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nita H.; Shah, Digeshkumar B.; Patel, Dushyantkumar G.

    2015-07-01

    This study aims at formulating an integrated supplier-buyer inventory model when market demand is variable price-sensitive trapezoidal and the supplier offers a choice between discount in unit price and permissible delay period for settling the accounts due against the purchases made. This type of trade credit is termed as 'net credit'. In this policy, if the buyer pays within offered time M1, then the buyer is entitled for a cash discount; otherwise the full account must be settled by the time M2; where M2 > M1 ⩾ 0. The goal is to determine the optimal selling price, procurement quantity, number of transfers from the supplier to the buyer and payment time to maximise the joint profit per unit time. An algorithm is worked out to obtain the optimal solution. A numerical example is given to validate the proposed model. The managerial insights based on sensitivity analysis are deduced.

  4. Information Sharing and Credit Rationing : Evidence from the Introduction of a Public Credit Registry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, X.; Degryse, H.A.

    2010-01-01

    We provide the first evidence on how the introduction of information sharing via a public credit registry affects banks’ lending decisions. We employ a unique dataset containing detailed information on credit card applications and decisions from one of the leading banks in China. While we do not

  5. Day-to-Day Market Power and Efficiency in Tradable Mobility Credits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An active transportation and demand management framework focusing on tradable mobility credits (TMC is integrated into an agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS platform. In this framework, it is conceived that an auction market within which mobility credits can be transferred between buyers and sellers is constructed in general. The idea of ABMS is extensively incorporated to mimic system users’ daily route choices as well as market-related micro-economical decision making process under TMC circumstance. Users are able to form individual propensities towards available bid/ask choices by reinforcement learning principles. The integrated platform offers a brand new insight view of microscopic aspect of the daily operations of credit transfer market, which has hardly been obtained by prior analytical models. Day-to-day traffic dynamics and market dynamics can be captured. Besides, market MOEs, including convergence, stability, efficiency and relative market powers of buyers and sellers under different market policies are investigated.

  6. Internal controls and credit risk relationship among banks in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The study purport to investigate the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms, investigate whether evidence of agency problem is found among banks in Europe and determine how internal controls affect credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 91 banks from 23 European Union countries were studied from 2008-2014. Hausman’s specification test suggest the use of fixed effects estimation technique of GLS. Quantitatively modelled data on 15 variables covering elements of internal controls, objectives of internal controls, agency problem, bank and country specific variables were used. Findings: There is still high credit risk in spite of measures being implemented by the European Central Bank. Banks have individual entity factors that increase or decrease credit risk. The study finds effective internal control systems because objectives of internal controls are achieved and significantly determine credit risk. Agency problem is confirmed due to significant positive relation with credit risk. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk with specific variables as risk assessment, return on average risk weighted assets, institutional ownership, bank size, inflation, interest rate and GDP. Research limitations/implications: Missing data prevented the use of strongly balanced panel. The lack of flexibility with using quantitative approach did not allow further scrutiny of the nature of variables. However, statistical tests were acceptable for the model used. The study has implications for management and owners of banks to be warry of agency problem because that provides incentive for reckless high risk transactions that may benefit the agent than the principal. Management must engage in actions that profile the company better and enhances value maximization. Rising default risk has tendency to impair corporate image leading to loss of reputational capital. Originality/value: The study provides the use of

  7. 49 CFR 536.8 - Conditions for trading of credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Conditions for trading of credits. 536.8 Section... SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL ECONOMY CREDITS § 536.8 Conditions for trading of credits. (a) Trading of credits. If a credit holder wishes to trade credits to...

  8. 17 CFR 256.255 - Accumulated deferred investment tax credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... investment tax credits. 256.255 Section 256.255 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE... investment tax credits. (a) This account shall be credited and account 411.5, Investment tax credit, debited with investment tax credits deferred by companies which do not apply such credits as a reduction of the...

  9. Credit scoring analysis using weighted k nearest neighbor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukid, M. A.; Widiharih, T.; Rusgiyono, A.; Prahutama, A.

    2018-05-01

    Credit scoring is a quatitative method to evaluate the credit risk of loan applications. Both statistical methods and artificial intelligence are often used by credit analysts to help them decide whether the applicants are worthy of credit. These methods aim to predict future behavior in terms of credit risk based on past experience of customers with similar characteristics. This paper reviews the weighted k nearest neighbor (WKNN) method for credit assessment by considering the use of some kernels. We use credit data from a private bank in Indonesia. The result shows that the Gaussian kernel and rectangular kernel have a better performance based on the value of percentage corrected classified whose value is 82.4% respectively.

  10. Criticality reference benchmark calculations for burnup credit using spent fuel isotopics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowman, S.M.

    1991-04-01

    To date, criticality analyses performed in support of the certification of spent fuel casks in the United States do not take credit for the reactivity reduction that results from burnup. By taking credit for the fuel burnup, commonly referred to as ''burnup credit,'' the fuel loading capacity of these casks can be increased. One of the difficulties in implementing burnup credit in criticality analyses is that there have been no critical experiments performed with spent fuel which can be used for computer code validation. In lieu of that, a reference problem set of fresh fuel critical experiments which model various conditions typical of light water reactor (LWR) transportation and storage casks has been identified and used in the validation of SCALE-4. This report documents the use of this same problem set to perform spent fuel criticality benchmark calculations by replacing the actual fresh fuel isotopics from the experiments with six different sets of calculated spent fuel isotopics. The SCALE-4 modules SAS2H and CSAS4 were used to perform the analyses. These calculations do not model actual critical experiments. The calculated k-effectives are not supposed to equal unity and will vary depending on the initial enrichment and burnup of the calculated spent fuel isotopics. 12 refs., 11 tabs

  11. Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

    2017-06-01

    The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

  12. Do Internet Credit Markets Improve Access to Credit for Female Business Owners?

    OpenAIRE

    Barasinska, Nataliya; Schäfer, Dorothea

    2010-01-01

    Business owners and founders are a minority of any bank's business clients. Scientific studies of traditional credit markets often show a lower probability of loan approval or higher loan costs for female business owners compared to male business owners. With this background the question arises whether female business owners have to struggle with this problem less on Internet credit markets. In this current study, DIW Berlin investigated business loans on the largest German Internet platform,...

  13. semPLS: Structural Equation Modeling Using Partial Least Squares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Monecke

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Structural equation models (SEM are very popular in many disciplines. The partial least squares (PLS approach to SEM offers an alternative to covariance-based SEM, which is especially suited for situations when data is not normally distributed. PLS path modelling is referred to as soft-modeling-technique with minimum demands regarding mea- surement scales, sample sizes and residual distributions. The semPLS package provides the capability to estimate PLS path models within the R programming environment. Different setups for the estimation of factor scores can be used. Furthermore it contains modular methods for computation of bootstrap confidence intervals, model parameters and several quality indices. Various plot functions help to evaluate the model. The well known mobile phone dataset from marketing research is used to demonstrate the features of the package.

  14. 77 FR 27255 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-09

    ... Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To Reduce the Current Level of Risk Mutualization Among Clearing Participants and To Modify the Initial Margin Risk Model So That It Is Easier for... modifications to its risk model for clearing credit default swaps (``CDS'') contracts. For the first...

  15. Partial widths of boson resonances in the quark-gluon model of strong interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaidalov, A.B.; Volkovitsky, P.E.

    1981-01-01

    The quark-gluon model of strong interactions based on the topological expansion and the string model ib used for the calculation of the partial widths of boson resonances in the channels with two pseudoscalar mesons. The partial widths of mesons with arbitrary spins lying on the vector and tensor Regge trajectories are expressed in terms of the only rho-meson width. The violation of SU(3) symmetry increases with the growth of the spin of the resonance. The theoretical predictions are in a good agreement with experimental data [ru

  16. Split credit ratings and the prediction of bank ratings in the Basel II environment

    OpenAIRE

    Barton, Amanda

    2006-01-01

    This thesis investigates two aspects of credit risk measurement in the context of Basel 11: The International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards. The first is the problem arising when two credit rating agencies disagree over the rating assigned to an issuer and a split rating arises. The second area is the determination of internal credit rating models for use under the Internal ratings-based approach. This thesis presents a variety of bank rating modes for individual an...

  17. Burnup credit feasibility for BWR spent fuel shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadhead, B.L.

    1990-01-01

    Considerable interest in the allowance of reactivity credit for the exposure history of power reactor fuel currently exists. This ''burnup credit'' issue has the potential to greatly reduce risk and cost when applied to the design and certification of spent of fuel casks used for transportation and storage. Analyses 1 have shown the feasibility estimated the risk and economic incentives for allowing burnup credit in pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent fuel shipping cask applications. This paper summarizes the extension of the previous PWR feasibility assessments to boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel. As with the PWR analysis, the purpose was not verification of burnup credit (see ref. 2 for ongoing work in this area) but a reasonable assessment of the feasibility and potential gains from its use in BWR applications. This feasibility analysis aims to apply simple methods that adequately characterize the time-dependent isotopic compositions of typical BWR fuel. An initial analysis objective was to identify a simple and reliable method for characterizing BWR spent fuel. The method includes characterization of a typical pin-cell spectrum, using a one-dimensional (1-D) model of a BWR assembly. The calculated spectrum allows burnup-dependent few-group material constants to be generated. Point depletion methods were then used to obtain the time-varying characteristics of the fuel. These simple methods were validated, where practical, with multidimensional methods. 6 refs., 1 tab

  18. Use of Robust z in Detecting Unstable Items in Item Response Theory Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, Huynh; Meyer, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    The first part of this paper describes the use of the robust z[subscript R] statistic to link test forms using the Rasch (or one-parameter logistic) model. The procedure is then extended to the two-parameter and three-parameter logistic and two-parameter partial credit (2PPC) models. A real set of data was used to illustrate the extension. The…

  19. Credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byiers, Bruce; Rand, John; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses two industrial firm surveys to identify the key determinants of credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing. We construct five different measures of being credit constrained and estimate desired debt demand. Besides firm size and ownership structure, we find evidence that general...

  20. Sustainable Trade Credit and Replenishment Policies under the Cap-And-Trade and Carbon Tax Regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanjuan Qin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the sustainable trade credit and inventory policies with demand related to credit period and the environmental sensitivity of consumers under the carbon cap-and-trade and carbon tax regulations. First, the decision models are constructed under three cases: without regulation, carbon cap-and-trade regulation, and carbon tax regulation. The optimal solutions of the retailer in the three cases are then discussed under the exogenous and endogenous credit periods. Finally, numerical analysis is conducted to obtain conclusions. The retailer shortens the trade credit period as the environmental sensitivity of the consumer is enhanced. The cap has no effects on the credit period decisions under the carbon cap-and-trade regulation. Carbon trade price and carbon tax have negative effects on the credit period. The retailer under carbon cap-and-trade regulation is more motivated to obey regulations than that under carbon tax regulation when carbon trade price equals carbon tax. Carbon regulations have better effects on carbon emission reduction than with exogenous credit term when the retailer has the power to decide with regards credit policies.

  1. Inventory Model with Partial Backordering When Backordered Customers Delay Purchase after Stockout-Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Qian Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many inventory models with partial backordering assume that the backordered demand must be filled instantly after stockout restoration. In practice, however, the backordered customers may successively revisit the store because of the purchase delay behavior, producing a limited backorder demand rate and resulting in an extra inventory holding cost. Hence, in this paper we formulate the inventory model with partial backordering considering the purchase delay of the backordered customers and assuming that the backorder demand rate is proportional to the remaining backordered demand. Particularly, we model the problem by introducing a new inventory cost component of holding the backordered items, which has not been considered in the existing models. We propose an algorithm with a two-layer structure based on Lipschitz Optimization (LO to minimize the total inventory cost. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm outperforms two benchmarks in both optimality and efficiency. We also observe that the earlier the backordered customer revisits the store, the smaller the inventory cost and the fill rate are, but the longer the order cycle is. In addition, if the backordered customers revisit the store without too much delay, the basic EOQ with partial backordering approximates our model very well.

  2. 76 FR 16235 - Corporate Credit Unions, Technical Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-23

    ... inadvertently included particular investments that did not--when subject to the other credit risk and asset... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 707 RIN 3133-AD58 Corporate Credit Unions, Technical Corrections AGENCY: National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: In...

  3. Online credit card fraud prediction based on hierarchical temporal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This understanding gave birth to the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) which holds a lot of promises in the area of time-series prediction and anomaly detection problems. This paper demonstrates the behaviour of an HTM model with respect to its learning and prediction of online credit card fraud. The model was ...

  4. Acquired Credit Unions: Drivers of Takeover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Raymond Sant

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study acquired credit unions and analyze their financial performance up to six years prior to merger, on a quarterly basis. The primary focus is on balance sheet (asset liability management and profitability variables (return on assets. We find that acquired credit unions during the period 2008 (third quarter to 2014 (first quarter experienced negative return on assets for several quarters prior to their takeover. This was the result of a declining loan portfolio and increasing charge offs. In spite of decreasing lending activity, such credit unions continued to increase their deposits, i.e., adding to their cost base. Due to declining loans, their net interest margin as a proportion of deposits was also in decline. We argue that this is an indicator of poor management ability. Furthermore, our analysis finds that operating expenses were increasing over time, something that has been documented in previous literature also for smaller credit unions and is attributable to lack of economies of scale. The average asset size of the acquired credit unions in our sample is about $22 million just before acquisition. We attribute our findings to poor business strategy followed by such credit unions. We also conclude that signs of trouble are evident up to two years before merger on average and regulatory policy may have to become more proactive to manage the consolidation challenge faced by the credit union industry in general.

  5. Materialism and credit card use by college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, M B; Parente, D H; Palmer, T S

    2000-04-01

    Much has been written in the popular press on credit card use and spending patterns of American college students. The proliferation of credit cards and their ease of acquisition ensure that students today have more opportunities for making more credit purchases than any other generation of college students. Little is known about the relationship between students' attitudes towards materialism and their use of credit cards. A study was conducted at three college campuses in the northeastern part of the United States where a total of 1,022 students were surveyed. Students' attitudes toward use of credit and their credit card balances were evaluated relative to their scores on Richins and Dawson's Materialism Scale (1992). Our findings suggest no significant difference between those individuals scoring high versus low on the Materialism Scale in terms of the number of credit cards owned and the average balance owed. Individuals high on materialism, however, significantly differed in terms of their uses for credit cards and their general attitude toward their use.

  6. Transitive Credit and JSON-LD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel S. Katz

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Science and engineering research increasingly relies on activities that facilitate research but are not currently rewarded or recognized, such as: data sharing; developing common data resources, software and methodologies; and annotating data and publications. To promote and advance these activities, we must develop mechanisms for assigning credit, facilitate the appropriate attribution of research outcomes, devise incentives for activities that facilitate research, and allocate funds to maximize return on investment. In this article, we focus on addressing the issue of assigning credit for both direct and indirect contributions, specifically by using JSON-LD to implement a prototype transitive credit system.

  7. 12 CFR 614.4040 - Production credit associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., membership, term, amount, loan security, and stock or participation certificate requirements of the... Section 614.4040 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Lending Authorities § 614.4040 Production credit associations. (a) Loan terms. (1) Production...

  8. Developing emission reduction credit trading in Texas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodds, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    The Texas Air Control Board has begun to develop a system of emission reduction credit training. The system will be developed incrementally over time. The first step, banking of VOC and NO x Emission Reduction Credits, began March 15, 1993. Additional programs under study and development include NO x RACT trading, emission credits for motor vehicle scrappage and alternative fuel conversion, and establishment of community organizations to generate and acquire emission reduction credits for economic development purposes

  9. Efficient semiparametric estimation in generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang; Zhou, Lan; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2014-01-01

    We consider efficient estimation of the Euclidean parameters in a generalized partially linear additive models for longitudinal/clustered data when multiple covariates need to be modeled nonparametrically, and propose an estimation procedure based

  10. IMPLICATIONS OF CREDIT RISK TRANSFER ON BANK PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria COCIUG

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the financial crisis has demonstrated the fragility of the banking sector and the need to implement new technologies that would allow not only insurance against the most important credit risk - credit risk, but development of lending segment. In such conditions, transfer of credit risk is an efficient and actual way to diversify the banks exposure for credit risk by the presence of those who are willing to take on some of this risk. Taking of credit risk can be achieved through credit derivatives, securitization and sale of loans, being selected the most advantageous technique for the bank. The current situation of the national banking sector requires solving the problem of bad loans, which, unfortunately, are increasing, by implementing new techniques for credit risk management according with EU directives.

  11. Measuring Credit Capacity on Danish Farms Using DEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis Pedersen, Michael; Vesterlund Olsen, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    have important implications for risk management practice, investment and technology adoption and related policy issues. The method is limited by the possibility of strategic behavior of lenders during credit cycle busts. In credit cycle booms, the method gives a good basis for the estimates of change...... in credit reserves. Practical implications: In a period of increasing credit reserves, risk management institutions are unlikely to develop. Like agricultural policy, access to credit may crowd out market-based risk management. Originality/value: The study represents a novel application and interpretation......Purpose:The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel measure of access to credit suited to estimate the relative change in credit reserves. Design/methodology/approach: A debt possibility frontier is estimated using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist index is calculated. The Malmquist...

  12. Skew-t partially linear mixed-effects models for AIDS clinical studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Tao

    2016-01-01

    We propose partially linear mixed-effects models with asymmetry and missingness to investigate the relationship between two biomarkers in clinical studies. The proposed models take into account irregular time effects commonly observed in clinical studies under a semiparametric model framework. In addition, commonly assumed symmetric distributions for model errors are substituted by asymmetric distribution to account for skewness. Further, informative missing data mechanism is accounted for. A Bayesian approach is developed to perform parameter estimation simultaneously. The proposed model and method are applied to an AIDS dataset and comparisons with alternative models are performed.

  13. Credit Rating via Dynamic Slack-Based Measure And It´s Optimal Investment Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    A. Delavarkhalafi; A. Poursherafatan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we check the credit rating of firms applied for a loan. In this regard we introduce a model, named Dynamic Slack-Based Measure (DSBM) for measuring credit rating of applicant companies. Selection of financial ratios that represent the financial state of a company -in the best possible way- is one of the most challenging parts of any credit rating analysis. At first, ranking needs to identify the appropriate variables. Therefore we introduce five financial variables to provide a ...

  14. Directions of coordination of financial accounting standards with principles for credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Ihor

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines ways of overcoming inconsistencies between IFRS and modern concepts of credit risk management, namely, expected loss model and risk-adjusted loan pricing. Also, it is considered an issue of acceptable levels of concentration risk in bank credit portfolio.

  15. Credit-Card Bill Seeks to Protect Students but Could Limit Their Access to Credit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Kelly

    2009-01-01

    Congress passed legislation last week that would shield students and other consumers from sudden spikes in interest rates and fees, but that could make it harder for young people to access credit to pay for college. The legislation would extend broad new consumer protections to all credit-card holders, offering special protections to college…

  16. Impacts of the use of spent nuclear fuel burnup credit on DOE advanced technology legal weight truck cask GA-4 fleet size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mobasheran, A.S.; Boshoven, J.; Lake, B.

    1995-01-01

    The object of this paper is to study the impact of full and partial spent fuel burnup credit on the capacity of the Legal Weight Truck Spent Fuel Shipping Cask (GA-4) and to determine the numbers of additional spent fuel assemblies which could be accommodated as a result. The scope of the study comprised performing nuclear criticality safety scoping calculations using the SCALE-PC software package and the 1993 spent fuel database to determine logistics for number of spent fuel assemblies to be shipped. The results of the study indicate that more capacity than 2 or 3 pressurized water reactor assemblies could be gained for GA-4 casks when burnup credit is considered. Reduction in GA-4 fleet size and number of shipments are expected to result from the acceptance of spent fuel burnup credit

  17. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data.

  18. Determinants of the Credit Quality Decision on Retail Consumer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suwinto Johan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to study the retail customers’ 4C (character, capacity, collateral, and capital that affected credit quality on finance companies. This study focused on the financing of used motorcycles from 2013-2014 with the position of balanced of book per December 2015. This study used artificial intelligence concept with scoring system. The dependent variable was the customer credit quality that was overdue 90 days, and the independent variables were character, capacity, collateral and capital of the customers. This study took samples of 67,500 customers using logistic regression test model. The empirical results showed that 4C had a significant effect on credit quality. There were 12 out of 13 variables that showed significant influence namely sex, age, length of stay, home ownership, marital status, employment status, cost ratio, motor guarantee brand, ownership status, down payment, and tenor. This significance was tested with a 5 percent confidence level. Income did not have significant effect.

  19. STATE CREDIT RATING MARK: PRESENT DOMESTIC REALITIES

    OpenAIRE

    Kovalko, N. M.

    2017-01-01

    The article discusses the problematic aspects of credit ratings and ranking. The economic and legal aspects of ranking relations are addressed. It is concluded that a low credit standing of Ukraine is a sign of our country’s low debt sustainability.It is proved that both for Ukraine and for economically developed countries, the issue of credit ratings is quite important, and at times problematic. The issue is related to the development of the national and international financial credit resour...

  20. THE ROLE OF INTEGRATED ISLAMIC COMMERCIAL AND SOCIAL FINANCE FOR CURBING CREDIT CYCLES AND ACHIEVING MACROPRUDENTIAL OBJECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Widodo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely believed that Islamic finance is inherently stable since the principle of risk-sharing and linking the financial to real counterpart in particular through its social finance are applied, hence the financial stability may successfully be attained. If mimicking the conventional finance, Islamic model will probably be facing instability, following the financial cycle. There has been a growing literature discussing credit cycle in mainstream perspective since 2008 global financial crash. However, it is quite rare to find study, in macro context, on credit cycles and the effectiveness of integrated Islamic commercial and social finance in achieving macroprudential objective: curtailing excessive credit. This study is designed to empirically examine the characteristics of cycles stemming from conventional and Islamic credit whether both have similar trend and also to investigate how the integrated Islamic commercial and social finance may be effective to hamper such cycles. By employing Hodrick-Presscot Filter, Markov Switching and Vector Error Correction Model, this study demonstrates that, in terms of cycle, Islamic model cycle has certain similarities with conventional counterpart since it functions under similar financial environment despite the fact that Islamic has less amplitude compared with conventional credit. Both credit and financing cycles tend to grow rapidly (excessive several months before global financial crisis happened in 2008. This means that, in a dual banking system, credit and financing boom may precede financial crisis. Moreover, it is apparent also that the integrated Islamic finance is proven to be effective in curbing credit growth due to the effectiveness of both macroprudential instrument applied in banking sector and social finance in safeguarding financial stability. Keywords:  Credit cycle, Macroprudential policy, Markov Switching, HP filter JEL Classification: E32, E51, G29

  1. 40 CFR 1033.715 - Banking emission credits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Banking emission credits. 1033.715... CONTROLS CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM LOCOMOTIVES Averaging, Banking, and Trading for Certification § 1033.715 Banking emission credits. (a) Banking is the retention of emission credits by the manufacturer...

  2. 25 CFR 140.23 - Credit at trader's risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Credit at trader's risk. 140.23 Section 140.23 Indians....23 Credit at trader's risk. Credit given Indians will be at the trader's own risk, as no assistance... accept pawns or pledges of personal property by Indians to obtain credit or loans. ...

  3. Financial Instability - a Result of Excess Liquidity or Credit Cycles?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heebøll-Christensen, Christian

    This paper compares the financial destabilizing effects of excess liquidity versus credit growth, in relation to house price bubbles and real economic booms. The analysis uses a cointegrated VAR model based on US data from 1987 to 2010, with a particulary focus on the period preceding the global...... financial crisis. Consistent with monetarist theory, the results suggest a stable money supply-demand relation in the period in question. However, the implied excess liquidity only resulted in financial destabilizing effect after year 2000. Meanwhile, the results also point to persistent cycles of real...... house prices and leverage, which appear to have been driven by real credit shocks, in accordance with post-Keynesian theories on financial instability. Importantly, however, these mechanisms of credit growth and excess liquidity are found to be closely related. In regards to the global financial crisis...

  4. Anglo-American Credit Scoring and Consumer Debt in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007 as Models for Other Countries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Fay Ruddy

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The system of credit scoring has been built up in recent times on the basis of a compromise struck between individuality and surveillance in ways that boosted consumption through consumer debt. This paper considers the role of credit scoring in the recent financial crisis, concluding that even if credit scoring had worked as intended under its own terms, the practice would not have been enough to limit the defaulting of mortgage borrowers under conditions of falling house prices. The broader economic problem is the crippling amount of consumer debt involved; hence the paper places credit scoring in the larger explanatory framework of consumer debt and, more generally, consumerism in its more problematic form. The sorting accomplished by credit scoring is open to abuses in the marketplace, unless it is tempered by the application of guardrails by a regulatory authority. As cultures beyond the Anglo-American sphere adopt this practice, guardrails like those applied to credit scoring in America are needed; as even the current U.S. Administration has acknowledged, the existing guardrails will have to be complemented by stricter social standards. The paper provides a derivation of the theoretical background on credit scoring as surveillance, and includes a literature survey.

  5. Does ownership structure improve credit ratings?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aws AlHares

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to examine the impact of Block Ownership structure on Credit Ratings in OECD countries. This research seeks to contribute to the extant literature by exploring the effects of Corporate Governance (CG mechanisms on corporate credit ratings. The study uses a panel data of 200 companies from Anglo American and European countries between 2010 and 2014. The ordinary least square regression is used to examine the relationships. Additionally, to alleviate the concern of potential endogeneity, we use fixed effect regression, two-stage least squares using instrumental variables. The results show there is a negative and significant relationship between block ownership and credit ratings, with a greater significance among Anglo American countries than among European countries. The rationale for this is that Anglo-American system gives preferential treatment to individual shareholders and its accounting tradition leads to a decline in risk and increase in credit ratings. The result is consistent with the multi-theoretical framework predictions derived from the agency and stewardship theories. Future research could investigate credit ratings using other credit rating agencies, selecting a larger sample that includes small, mid-size and large companies. This paper extends, as well as contributes to extant CG literature by offering new evidence on the effect of block ownership on credit ratings between two different traditions. This will be explored by employing firm-level CG mechanisms by accounting for control variables. The findings will help regulators and policymakers in OECD countries in evaluating the adequacy of current CG reforms to prevent management misconduct and scandals.

  6. 12 CFR 614.4010 - Agricultural credit banks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) of this chapter, for the export (including the cost of freight) of agricultural commodities or... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Agricultural credit banks. 614.4010 Section 614.4010 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS...

  7. Computational Benchmark for Estimation of Reactivity Margin from Fission Products and Minor Actinides in PWR Burnup Credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    This report proposes and documents a computational benchmark problem for the estimation of the additional reactivity margin available in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from fission products and minor actinides in a burnup-credit storage/transport environment, relative to SNF compositions containing only the major actinides. The benchmark problem/configuration is a generic burnup credit cask designed to hold 32 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies. The purpose of this computational benchmark is to provide a reference configuration for the estimation of the additional reactivity margin, which is encouraged in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance for partial burnup credit (ISG8), and document reference estimations of the additional reactivity margin as a function of initial enrichment, burnup, and cooling time. Consequently, the geometry and material specifications are provided in sufficient detail to enable independent evaluations. Estimates of additional reactivity margin for this reference configuration may be compared to those of similar burnup-credit casks to provide an indication of the validity of design-specific estimates of fission-product margin. The reference solutions were generated with the SAS2H-depletion and CSAS25-criticality sequences of the SCALE 4.4a package. Although the SAS2H and CSAS25 sequences have been extensively validated elsewhere, the reference solutions are not directly or indirectly based on experimental results. Consequently, this computational benchmark cannot be used to satisfy the ANS 8.1 requirements for validation of calculational methods and is not intended to be used to establish biases for burnup credit analyses

  8. Logical Specification and Analysis of Fault Tolerant Systems through Partial Model Checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gnesi, S.; Etalle, Sandro; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Lenzini, Gabriele; Lenzini, G.; Martinelli, F.; Roychoudhury, A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for a logical characterisation of fault tolerance and its formal analysis based on partial model checking techniques. The framework requires a fault tolerant system to be modelled using a formal calculus, here the CCS process algebra. To this aim we propose a uniform

  9. An Anonymous Credit Card System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androulaki, Elli; Bellovin, Steven

    Credit cards have many important benefits; however, these same benefits often carry with them many privacy concerns. In particular, the need for users to be able to monitor their own transactions, as well as bank’s need to justify its payment requests from cardholders, entitle the latter to maintain a detailed log of all transactions its credit card customers were involved in. A bank can thus build a profile of each cardholder even without the latter’s consent. In this paper, we present a practical and accountable anonymous credit system based on ecash, with a privacy preserving mechanism for error correction and expense-reporting.

  10. Estimation of Corporate Credit Rating Quality in Emerging Markets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    information that is not already readily available to investors. In order to ... is institutionalisation: that is, the increased use of credit ratings in financial ..... three financial ratios are included in the model to account for within-firm default risks.

  11. Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used. Generalized Least Squares (random effect econometric estimation technique was used for the model. Findings: We find that internal control systems are in place but their effectiveness cannot be guaranteed. This exposes Spanish listed banks to serious default situations. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk especially the control environment, risk management, control activities and monitoring. The non-disclosure of material internal control weakness is a contributory factor to the ineffective internal control systems. There is however a perceived board ineffectiveness which does not augur well for effective internal control systems. Board characteristics for Spanish banks confirm the agency theory. Research Limitations and Implications: Data unavailability for certain years, variables and many inactive banks did not permit a larger sample size than expected. The use of quantitative variables lacks flexibility. Practical Implications: Bank management will find the work useful to ensure strict enforcement of internal control mechanisms and see it as both credit risk and operational risk issues. Central bank should hurry to compel banks to disclose material internal control weakness as provided in the reviewed COSO framework. Social Implications: Ineffective internal controls lead to credit risks, bank closure and loss of investments. Society suffers a lot from such losses and contagion. Disclosure of material internal control

  12. Whole object surface area and volume of partial-view 3D models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulukutla, Gopal K; Proussevitch, Alexander A; Genareau, Kimberly D; Durant, Adam J

    2017-01-01

    Micro-scale 3D models, important components of many studies in science and engineering, are often used to determine morphological characteristics such as shape, surface area and volume. The application of techniques such as stereoscopic scanning electron microscopy on whole objects often results in ‘partial-view’ models with a portion of object not within the field of view thus not captured in the 3D model. The nature and extent of the surface not captured is dependent on the complex interaction of imaging system attributes (e.g. working distance, viewing angle) with object size, shape and morphology. As a result, any simplistic assumptions in estimating whole object surface area or volume can lead to significant errors. In this study, we report on a novel technique to estimate the physical fraction of an object captured in a partial-view 3D model of an otherwise whole object. This allows a more accurate estimate of surface area and volume. Using 3D models, we demonstrate the robustness of this method and the accuracy of surface area and volume estimates relative to true values. (paper)

  13. Tuition Tax Credits. Issuegram 19.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augenblick, John; McGuire, Kent

    Approaches for using the federal income tax system to aid families of pupils attending private schools include: tax credits, tax deductions, tax deferrals, and education savings incentives. Tax credit structures can be made refundable and made sensitive to taxpayers' income levels, the level of education expenditures, and designated costs.…

  14. College credit for in-house training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, K.; Getty, C.; Knief, R.

    1981-01-01

    The Program on Non-Collegiate Sponsored Instruction (PONSI) and similar organizations may be of considerable help to the industry to the extent that college credit can be awarded for certain activities in reactor site training programs. The credit recommendations generally may be used at local colleges. They also may be applied (along with credit for college-level activities such as correspondence and on-campus courses, proficiency testing, and other evaluations) to degrees granted by the Regent's External Degree Program (REX) and other organizations. This paper describes the principle features of the PONSI and REX programs. PONSI's first credit evaluation at a nuclear plant - Consolidated Edison's Indian Point 2 - is summarized. Recent proposals for an explicit nuclear degree through REX are also described briefly

  15. Securitization, Credit Rating and Issuers’ Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Palmada Fernandes

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the growth of securitization through Credit Receivables Investment Funds (Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios - FIDCs in Brazil in recent years, this work aims to investigate empirically the relationship between securitization and credit rating in the Brazilian market. All issues of FIDCs held by banks and registered in the CVM from 2005 to July 2010 were analyzed. The two hypotheses discussed by Gorton and Souleles (2005 were confirmed to Brazilian financial institutions. There is evidence of an implied contract between the transferor companies and investors in securitizations made via FIDCs. Companies with higher credit risk, worst ratings, tend to securitize more. However no relationship was found between securitization and asset value, amount of loans or capital ratio.

  16. The impact of ownership structure on bank credit risk: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niluthpaul SARKER

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of ownership structure of Commercial Banks on bank credit risk in an emerging market like Bangladesh. Prais Winten regression model is applied to a sample of 32 commercial banks from the year of 2000 to 2014 with 390 observations. The result reveals that National Commercial Banks, depositors’ influence, shareholders’ influence, liquidity and profitability are negatively associated with credit risk whereas lag risk has a significant positive impact on credit risk. The effect of banks ownership structure on credit risk divulges a delicate governance of the banking sector. The study conveys a momentous implication of research findings in the national economy. It also found that national commercial banks have the tendency of violating the rules and absorbing heavy risk. It suggests that policy maker should rethink about the government ownership of banks. Therefore the denationalization or reducing government ownership structure is highly recommended.

  17. Credit Rating via Dynamic Slack-Based Measure And It´s Optimal Investment Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Delavarkhalafi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we check the credit rating of firms applied for a loan. In this regard we introduce a model, named Dynamic Slack-Based Measure (DSBM for measuring credit rating of applicant companies. Selection of financial ratios that represent the financial state of a company -in the best possible way- is one of the most challenging parts of any credit rating analysis. At first, ranking needs to identify the appropriate variables. Therefore we introduce five financial variables to provide a ranking. As noted above, we assess the performance of these firms. Then we introduce the dynamic model of SBM and theorems, also we discuss the overall structure of DSBM. Then we will present the implementation and the simulation model. After that, we propose a stochastic controlled dynamic system model to express the optimal strategy. Banks expect companies selected with DSBM model, act in accordance with this strategy. This stochastic dynamic system is originated from the balance sheets of firms applying for a loan. Finally we evaluate the performance of the system and strategy problem.

  18. 49 CFR 260.15 - Credit risk premium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium. 260.15 Section 260.15... REHABILITATION AND IMPROVEMENT FINANCING PROGRAM Overview § 260.15 Credit risk premium. (a) Where available... pay to the Administrator a Credit Risk Premium adequate to cover that portion of the subsidy cost not...

  19. Consumer Credit: Evidence from Italian Micro Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hochguertel, S.; Alessie, R.; Weber, G.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we analyse unique data on credit applications received by the leading provider of consumer credit in Italy (Findomestic). The data set covers a five-year period (1995-1999) during which the consumer credit market rapidly expanded in Italy and a new law (the usury law) came into force

  20. Türkiye’de Kredi Kartı Kullanımını Etkileyen Faktörleri Belirlemeye Yönelik Bir Model Çalışması(A Model Study Based on Setting The Factors Affecting The Credit Card Usage in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevin UZGÖREN

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The usage of credit cards as a mean for payment and consumer credits is consistently increasing worldwide and Turkey.In this study, analyzing the factors that affect the expenditures by credit cards is aimed and multiple regression analysis is applied. The model which is gained through this analysis has shaved appropriate results for economic and statistical expectations. It has been realized that, the crisis in November 2000 and February 2001 in Turkey had an important role in the decrease of credit card usage giro. On the other hand, it has been concluded that the gross national product per capita, the number of pos machines and credit cards and the inflation rate increased the card usage giro.