Seismic fragility of RC shear walls in nuclear power plant Part 1: Characterization of uncertainty in concrete constitutive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Syed, Sammiuddin; Gupta, Abhinav

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A framework is proposed for seismic fragility assessment of Reinforced Concrete structures. • Experimentally validated finite element models are used to conduct nonlinear simulations. • Critical parameters in concrete constitutive model are identified to conduct nonlinear simulations. • Uncertainties in model parameters of concrete damage plasticity model is characterized. • Closed form expressions are used to compute the damage variables and plasticity. - Abstract: This two part manuscript proposes a framework for seismic fragility assessment of reinforced concrete structures in nuclear energy facilities. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the characterization of uncertainties in the parameters of the material constitutive model. Concrete constitutive models that comprehensively address different damage states such as tensile cracking, compression failure, stiffness degradation, and recovery of degraded stiffness due to closing of previously formed cracks under dynamic loading are generally defined in terms of a large number of variables to characterize the plasticity and damage at material level. Over the past several years, many different studies have been presented on evaluation of fragility for reinforced concrete structures using nonlinear time history simulations. However, almost all of these studies do not consider uncertainties in the parameters of a comprehensive constitutive model. Part-I of this two-part manuscript presents a study that is used to identify uncertainties associated with the critical parameters in nonlinear concrete damage plasticity model proposed by Lubliner et al. (1989. Int. J. Solids Struct., 25(3), 299) and later modified by Lee and Fenves (1998a. J. Eng. Mech., ASCE, 124(8), 892) and Lee and Fenves (1998b. Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 27(9), 937) for the purpose of seismic fragility assessment. The limitations in implementation of the damage plasticity model within a finite element framework and

Seismic fragility of RC shear walls in nuclear power plant Part 1: Characterization of uncertainty in concrete constitutive model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Syed, Sammiuddin [Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, 426 Mann Hall, Campus Box 7908, Raleigh, NC 27695-7908 (United States); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, 413 Mann Hall, Campus Box 7908, Raleigh, NC 27695-7908 (United States)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • A framework is proposed for seismic fragility assessment of Reinforced Concrete structures. • Experimentally validated finite element models are used to conduct nonlinear simulations. • Critical parameters in concrete constitutive model are identified to conduct nonlinear simulations. • Uncertainties in model parameters of concrete damage plasticity model is characterized. • Closed form expressions are used to compute the damage variables and plasticity. - Abstract: This two part manuscript proposes a framework for seismic fragility assessment of reinforced concrete structures in nuclear energy facilities. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the characterization of uncertainties in the parameters of the material constitutive model. Concrete constitutive models that comprehensively address different damage states such as tensile cracking, compression failure, stiffness degradation, and recovery of degraded stiffness due to closing of previously formed cracks under dynamic loading are generally defined in terms of a large number of variables to characterize the plasticity and damage at material level. Over the past several years, many different studies have been presented on evaluation of fragility for reinforced concrete structures using nonlinear time history simulations. However, almost all of these studies do not consider uncertainties in the parameters of a comprehensive constitutive model. Part-I of this two-part manuscript presents a study that is used to identify uncertainties associated with the critical parameters in nonlinear concrete damage plasticity model proposed by Lubliner et al. (1989. Int. J. Solids Struct., 25(3), 299) and later modified by Lee and Fenves (1998a. J. Eng. Mech., ASCE, 124(8), 892) and Lee and Fenves (1998b. Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 27(9), 937) for the purpose of seismic fragility assessment. The limitations in implementation of the damage plasticity model within a finite element framework and

Unlearning Established Organizational Routines--Part II

Science.gov (United States)

Fiol, C. Marlena; O'Connor, Edward J.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of Part II of this two-part paper is to uncover important differences in the nature of the three unlearning subprocesses, which call for different leadership interventions to motivate people to move through them. Design/methodology/approach: The paper draws on research in behavioral medicine and psychology to demonstrate that…

Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 2: perceptions of uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Andrew J. L.

2015-04-01

In the first part of this review, I defined the media filter and how it can operate to frame and blame the forecaster for losses incurred during an environmental disaster. In this second part, I explore the meaning and role of uncertainty when a forecast, and its basis, is communicated through the response and decision-making chain to the newspaper, especially during a rapidly evolving natural disaster which has far-reaching business, political, and societal impacts. Within the media-based communication system, there remains a fundamental disconnect of the definition of uncertainty and the interpretation of the delivered forecast between various stakeholders. The definition and use of uncertainty differs especially between scientific, media, business, and political stakeholders. This is a serious problem for the scientific community when delivering forecasts to the public though the press. As reviewed in Part 1, the media filter can result in a negative frame, which itself is a result of bias, slant, spin, and agenda setting introduced during passage of the forecast and its uncertainty through the media filter. The result is invariably one of anger and fury, which causes loss of credibility and blaming of the forecaster. Generation of a negative frame can be aided by opacity of the decision-making process that the forecast is used to support. The impact of the forecast will be determined during passage through the decision-making chain where the precautionary principle and cost-benefit analysis, for example, will likely be applied. Choice of forecast delivery format, vehicle of communication, syntax of delivery, and lack of follow-up measures can further contribute to causing the forecast and its role to be misrepresented. Follow-up measures to negative frames may include appropriately worded press releases and conferences that target forecast misrepresentation or misinterpretation in an attempt to swing the slant back in favor of the forecaster. Review of

SFR inverse modelling Part 2. Uncertainty factors of predicted flow in deposition tunnels and uncertainty in distribution of flow paths from deposition tunnels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmen, Johan

2007-10-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is operating the SFR repository for low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste. An update of the safety analysis of SFR was carried out by SKB as the SAFE project (Safety Assessment of Final Disposal of Operational Radioactive Waste). The aim of the project was to update the safety analysis and to produce a safety report. The safety report has been submitted to the Swedish authorities. This study is a continuation of the SAFE project, and concerns the hydrogeological modelling of the SFR repository, which was carried out as part of the SAFE project, it describes the uncertainty in the tunnel flow and distributions of flow paths from the storage tunnels. Uncertainty factors are produced for two different flow situations, corresponding to 2,000 AD (the sea covers the repository) and 4,000 AD (the sea has retreated form the repository area). Uncertainty factors are produced for the different deposition tunnels. The uncertainty factors are discussed in Chapter 2 and two lists (matrix) of uncertainty factors have been delivered as a part of this study. Flow paths are produced for two different flow situations, corresponding to 2,000 AD (the sea covers the repository) and 5,000 AD (the sea has retreated form the repository area). Flow paths from the different deposition tunnels have been simulated, considering the above discussed base case and the 60 realisation that passed all tests of this base case. The flow paths are presented and discussed in Chapter 3 and files presenting the results of the flow path analyses have been delivered as part of this study. The uncertainty factors (see Chapter 2) are not independent from the flow path data (see Chapter 3). When stochastic calculations are performed by use of a transport model and the data presented in this study is used as input to such calculations, the corresponding uncertainty factors and flow path data should be used. This study also includes a brief discussion of

Nuclear medicine and thyroid disease - part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterton, B.E.

2005-01-01

Part 1 of this article discussed the anatomy, physiology and basic pathology of the thyroid gland. Techniques of thyroid scanning and a few clinical examples are shown part II Copyright (2005) The Australian and New Zealand Society Of Nuclear Medicine Inc

Recent Economic Perspectives on Political Economy, Part II*

Science.gov (United States)

Dewan, Torun; Shepsle, Kenneth A.

2013-01-01

In recent years some of the best theoretical work on the political economy of political institutions and processes has begun surfacing outside the political science mainstream in high quality economics journals. This two-part paper surveys these contributions from a recent five-year period. In Part I, the focus is on elections, voting and information aggregation, followed by treatments of parties, candidates, and coalitions. In Part II, papers on economic performance and redistribution, constitutional design, and incentives, institutions, and the quality of political elites are discussed. Part II concludes with a discussion of the methodological bases common to economics and political science, the way economists have used political science research, and some new themes and arbitrage opportunities. PMID:23606754

Discussion of OECD LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling Benchmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, K.; Avramova, M.; Royer, E.; Gillford, J.

2013-01-01

The demand for best estimate calculations in nuclear reactor design and safety evaluations has increased in recent years. Uncertainty quantification has been highlighted as part of the best estimate calculations. The modelling aspects of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are to be further developed and validated on scientific grounds in support of their performance and application to multi-physics reactor simulations. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) / Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Nuclear Science Committee (NSC) has endorsed the creation of an Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (EGUAM). Within the framework of activities of EGUAM/NSC the OECD/NEA initiated the Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling for Design, Operation, and Safety Analysis of Light Water Reactor (OECD LWR UAM benchmark). The general objective of the benchmark is to propagate the predictive uncertainties of code results through complex coupled multi-physics and multi-scale simulations. The benchmark is divided into three phases with Phase I highlighting the uncertainty propagation in stand-alone neutronics calculations, while Phase II and III are focused on uncertainty analysis of reactor core and system respectively. This paper discusses the progress made in Phase I calculations, the Specifications for Phase II and the incoming challenges in defining Phase 3 exercises. The challenges of applying uncertainty quantification to complex code systems, in particular the time-dependent coupled physics models are the large computational burden and the utilization of non-linear models (expected due to the physics coupling). (authors)

Reliability of a new biokinetic model of zirconium in internal dosimetry: part I, parameter uncertainty analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei Bo; Greiter, Matthias; Oeh, Uwe; Hoeschen, Christoph

2011-12-01

The reliability of biokinetic models is essential in internal dose assessments and radiation risk analysis for the public, occupational workers, and patients exposed to radionuclides. In this paper, a method for assessing the reliability of biokinetic models by means of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was developed. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first part of the study published here, the uncertainty sources of the model parameters for zirconium (Zr), developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), were identified and analyzed. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the biokinetic experimental measurement performed at the Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU) for developing a new biokinetic model of Zr was analyzed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. The confidence interval and distribution of model parameters of the ICRP and HMGU Zr biokinetic models were evaluated. As a result of computer biokinetic modelings, the mean, standard uncertainty, and confidence interval of model prediction calculated based on the model parameter uncertainty were presented and compared to the plasma clearance and urinary excretion measured after intravenous administration. It was shown that for the most important compartment, the plasma, the uncertainty evaluated for the HMGU model was much smaller than that for the ICRP model; that phenomenon was observed for other organs and tissues as well. The uncertainty of the integral of the radioactivity of Zr up to 50 y calculated by the HMGU model after ingestion by adult members of the public was shown to be smaller by a factor of two than that of the ICRP model. It was also shown that the distribution type of the model parameter strongly influences the model prediction, and the correlation of the model input parameters affects the model prediction to a

Risk, probability and uncertainty in the calculations of gas cooled reactor of PBMR type. Part 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serbanescu, Dan

2004-01-01

The paper presents the main conclusions of the insights to a cooled gas reactor from the perspective of the following notions: probability, uncertainty, entropy and risk. Some results of the on-going comparison between the insights obtained from three models and approaches are presented. The approaches consider the Pebble Bed Module Reactor (PBMR) NPP as a thermodynamic installation and as hierarchical system with or without considering the information exchange between its various levels. The existing model was a basis for a PRA going on in phases for PBMR. In the first part of this paper results from phase II of this PRA were presented. Further activities going on in the preparation for phase II PRA and for the development of a specific application of using PRA during the design phases for PBMR are undergoing with some preliminary results and conclusions. However, for the purposes of this paper and the comparative review of various models in the part two one presents the risk model (model B) based on the assumption and ideas laid down at the basis of the future inter-comparison of this model with other plant models. The assumptions concern: the uncertainties for the quantification of frequencies; list of initiated events; interfaces with the deterministic calculation; integrated evaluation of all the plant states; risk of the release of radionuclide; the balance between the number and function of the active systems and the passive systems; systems interdependencies in PBMR PRA; use of PRA for the evaluation of the impact of various design changes on plant risk. The model B allows basically evaluating the level of risk of the plant by calculating it as a result of acceptance challenge to the plant. By using this model the departure from a reference state is given by the variation in the risk metrics adopted for the study. The paper present also the synergetic model (model C). The evaluation of risk in the model C is considering also the information process. The

Reservoir souring: Problems, uncertainties and modelling. Part I: Problems and uncertainty involved in prediction. Part II: Preliminary investigations of a computational model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paulsen, J.E.; Read, P.A.; Thompson, C.P.; Jelley, C.; Lezeau, P.

1996-01-01

The paper relates to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques by mathematical modelling. The uncertainty involved in modelling of reservoir souring is discussed. IOR processes are speculated to influence a souring process in a positive direction. Most models do not take into account pH in reservoir fluids, and thus do not account for partitioning behaviour of sulfide. Also, sulfide is antagonistic to bacterial metabolism and impedes to bacterial metabolism and impedes the sulfate reduction rate, this may be an important factor in modelling. Biofilms are thought to play a crucial role in a reservoir souring process. Biofilm in a reservoir matrix is different from biofilm in open systems. This has major impact on microbial impact on microbial transport and behaviour. Studies on microbial activity in reservoir matrices must be carried out with model cores, in order to mimic a realistic situation. Sufficient data do not exist today. The main conclusion is that a model does not reflect a true situation before the nature of these elements is understood. A simplified version of an Norwegian developed biofilm model is discussed. The model incorporates all the important physical phenomena studied in the above references such as bacteria growth limited by nutrients and/or energy sources and hydrogen sulfide adsorption. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

Reservoir souring: Problems, uncertainties and modelling. Part I: Problems and uncertainty involved in prediction. Part II: Preliminary investigations of a computational model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paulsen, J.E. [Rogalandsforskning, Stavanger (Norway); Read, P.A.; Thompson, C.P.; Jelley, C.; Lezeau, P.

1996-12-31

The paper relates to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques by mathematical modelling. The uncertainty involved in modelling of reservoir souring is discussed. IOR processes are speculated to influence a souring process in a positive direction. Most models do not take into account pH in reservoir fluids, and thus do not account for partitioning behaviour of sulfide. Also, sulfide is antagonistic to bacterial metabolism and impedes to bacterial metabolism and impedes the sulfate reduction rate, this may be an important factor in modelling. Biofilms are thought to play a crucial role in a reservoir souring process. Biofilm in a reservoir matrix is different from biofilm in open systems. This has major impact on microbial impact on microbial transport and behaviour. Studies on microbial activity in reservoir matrices must be carried out with model cores, in order to mimic a realistic situation. Sufficient data do not exist today. The main conclusion is that a model does not reflect a true situation before the nature of these elements is understood. A simplified version of an Norwegian developed biofilm model is discussed. The model incorporates all the important physical phenomena studied in the above references such as bacteria growth limited by nutrients and/or energy sources and hydrogen sulfide adsorption. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

PIO I-II tendencies. Part 2. Improving the pilot modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioan URSU

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The study is conceived in two parts and aims to get some contributions to the problem ofPIO aircraft susceptibility analysis. Part I, previously published in this journal, highlighted the mainsteps of deriving a complex model of human pilot. The current Part II of the paper considers a properprocedure of the human pilot mathematical model synthesis in order to analyze PIO II typesusceptibility of a VTOL-type aircraft, related to the presence of position and rate-limited actuator.The mathematical tools are those of semi global stability theory developed in recent works.

Metatarsalgia located by synovitis and uncertainty of the articulation metatarsus-phalanges of the II toe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstner G, Juan Bernardo

2002-01-01

The synovitis and the uncertainty of the articulation metatarsus-phalanges (MP) of the II toe they are the causes more frequent of metatersalgia located in this articulation of the foot, frequently bad diagnosed and not well managed by the general orthopedist. The natural history understands stadiums so precocious as the synovitis without alteration of peri-articular structures, going by the frank uncertainty, and finishing with the angular deformities and the complete luxation of the articulation MP. The meticulous and directed interrogation, the physical exam specifies and the classification of the diagnostic they are the keys for the successful handling of the pathology. The surgical correction of this condition should always be associated to the correction of associate deformities as the hallux valgus and the fingers in claw

Quantifying type I and type II errors in decision-making under uncertainty : The case of GM crops

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ansink, Erik; Wesseler, Justus

2009-01-01

In a recent paper, Hennessy and Moschini (American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2): 308-323, 2006) analyse the interactions between scientific uncertainty and costly regulatory actions. We use their model to analyse the costs of making type I and type II errors, in the context of the

Quantifying type I and type II errors in decision-making under uncertainty: the case of GM crops

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ansink, E.J.H.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2009-01-01

In a recent paper, Hennessy and Moschini (American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(2): 308¿323, 2006) analyse the interactions between scientific uncertainty and costly regulatory actions. We use their model to analyse the costs of making type I and type II errors, in the context of the

The Combined ASTER MODIS Emissivity over Land (CAMEL Part 2: Uncertainty and Validation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Feltz

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity project, a new global land surface emissivity dataset has been produced by the University of Wisconsin–Madison Space Science and Engineering Center and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL. This new dataset termed the Combined ASTER MODIS Emissivity over Land (CAMEL, is created by the merging of the UW–Madison MODIS baseline-fit emissivity dataset (UWIREMIS and JPL’s ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset v4 (GEDv4. CAMEL consists of a monthly, 0.05° resolution emissivity for 13 hinge points within the 3.6–14.3 µm region and is extended to 417 infrared spectral channels using a principal component regression approach. An uncertainty product is provided for the 13 hinge point emissivities by combining temporal, spatial, and algorithm variability as part of a total uncertainty estimate. Part 1 of this paper series describes the methodology for creating the CAMEL emissivity product and the corresponding high spectral resolution algorithm. This paper, Part 2 of the series, details the methodology of the CAMEL uncertainty calculation and provides an assessment of the CAMEL emissivity product through comparisons with (1 ground site lab measurements; (2 a long-term Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI emissivity dataset derived from 8 years of data; and (3 forward-modeled IASI brightness temperatures using the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV radiative transfer model. Global monthly results are shown for different seasons and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme land classifications, and case study examples are shown for locations with different land surface types.

Validating the standard for the National Board Dental Examination Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Tsung-Hsun; Neumann, Laura M; Littlefield, John H

2012-05-01

As part of the overall exam validation process, the Joint Commission on National Dental Examinations periodically reviews and validates the pass/fail standard for the National Board Dental Examination (NBDE), Parts I and II. The most recent standard-setting activities for NBDE Part II used the Objective Standard Setting method. This report describes the process used to set the pass/fail standard for the 2009 exam. The failure rate on the NBDE Part II increased from 5.3 percent in 2008 to 13.7 percent in 2009 and then decreased to 10 percent in 2010. This article describes the Objective Standard Setting method and presents the estimated probabilities of classification errors based on the beta binomial mathematical model. The results show that the probability of correct classifications of candidate performance is very high (0.97) and that probabilities of false negative and false positive errors are very small (.03 and <0.001, respectively). The low probability of classification errors supports the conclusion that the pass/fail score on the NBDE Part II is a valid guide for making decisions about candidates for dental licensure.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Uncertainty Analysis-Exploration of Core Melt Progression Uncertain Parameters-Volume II.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-08-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysi s (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression wit h the MELCOR code. Volume I of the 1F1 UA discusses the physical modeling details and time history results of the UA. Volume II of the 1F1 UA discusses the statistical viewpoint. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The goal of this work was to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures - of - merit (e.g., hydrogen production, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure) and in doing so assess the applicability of traditional sensitivity analysis techniques .

Globalization in the pharmaceutical industry, Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Casadio Tarabusi, C; Vickery, G

1998-01-01

This is the second of a two-part report on the pharmaceutical industry. Part II begins with a discussion of foreign direct investment and inter-firm networks, which covers international mergers, acquisitions, and minority participation; market shares of foreign-controlled firms; international collaboration agreements (with a special note on agreements in biotechnology); and licensing agreements. The final section of the report covers governmental policies on health and safety regulation, price regulation, industry and technology, trade, foreign investment, protection of intellectual property, and competition.

29 CFR Appendix II to Part 1918 - Tables for Selected Miscellaneous Auxiliary Gear (Mandatory)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 7 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Tables for Selected Miscellaneous Auxiliary Gear (Mandatory) II Appendix II to Part 1918 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND.... 1918, App. II Appendix II to Part 1918—Tables for Selected Miscellaneous Auxiliary Gear (Mandatory...

Articulating uncertainty as part of scientific argumentation during model-based exoplanet detection tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hee-Sun; Pallant, Amy; Pryputniewicz, Sarah

2015-08-01

Teaching scientific argumentation has emerged as an important goal for K-12 science education. In scientific argumentation, students are actively involved in coordinating evidence with theory based on their understanding of the scientific content and thinking critically about the strengths and weaknesses of the cited evidence in the context of the investigation. We developed a one-week-long online curriculum module called "Is there life in space?" where students conduct a series of four model-based tasks to learn how scientists detect extrasolar planets through the “wobble” and transit methods. The simulation model allows students to manipulate various parameters of an imaginary star and planet system such as planet size, orbit size, planet-orbiting-plane angle, and sensitivity of telescope equipment, and to adjust the display settings for graphs illustrating the relative velocity and light intensity of the star. Students can use model-based evidence to formulate an argument on whether particular signals in the graphs guarantee the presence of a planet. Students' argumentation is facilitated by the four-part prompts consisting of multiple-choice claim, open-ended explanation, Likert-scale uncertainty rating, and open-ended uncertainty rationale. We analyzed 1,013 scientific arguments formulated by 302 high school student groups taught by 7 teachers. We coded these arguments in terms of the accuracy of their claim, the sophistication of explanation connecting evidence to the established knowledge base, the uncertainty rating, and the scientific validity of uncertainty. We found that (1) only 18% of the students' uncertainty rationale involved critical reflection on limitations inherent in data and concepts, (2) 35% of students' uncertainty rationale reflected their assessment of personal ability and knowledge, rather than scientific sources of uncertainty related to the evidence, and (3) the nature of task such as the use of noisy data or the framing of

Minimizing measurement uncertainties of coniferous needle-leaf optical properties, part II: experimental set-up and error analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yanez Rausell, L.; Malenovsky, Z.; Clevers, J.G.P.W.; Schaepman, M.E.

2014-01-01

We present uncertainties associated with the measurement of coniferous needle-leaf optical properties (OPs) with an integrating sphere using an optimized gap-fraction (GF) correction method, where GF refers to the air gaps appearing between the needles of a measured sample. We used an optically

46 CFR Table II to Part 150 - Grouping of Cargoes

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... solution Potassium oleate Potassium salt of polyolefin acid Propyl acetate Propylene carbonate Propylene... lignosulfonate solution Sodium polyacrylate solution 2 Sodium salt of Ferric hydroxyethylethylenediamine... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Grouping of Cargoes II Table II to Part 150 Shipping...

40 CFR Appendix II to Part 600 - Sample Fuel Economy Calculations

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sample Fuel Economy Calculations II... FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Pt. 600, App. II Appendix II to Part 600—Sample Fuel Economy Calculations (a) This sample fuel economy calculation is applicable to...

WE-B-19A-01: SRT II: Uncertainties in SRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dieterich, S; Schlesinger, D; Geneser, S

2014-01-01

SRS delivery has undergone major technical changes in the last decade, transitioning from predominantly frame-based treatment delivery to imageguided, frameless SRS. It is important for medical physicists working in SRS to understand the magnitude and sources of uncertainty involved in delivering SRS treatments for a multitude of technologies (Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, linac-based SRS and protons). Sources of SRS planning and delivery uncertainty include dose calculation, dose fusion, and intra- and inter-fraction motion. Dose calculations for small fields are particularly difficult because of the lack of electronic equilibrium and greater effect of inhomogeneities within and near the PTV. Going frameless introduces greater setup uncertainties that allows for potentially increased intra- and interfraction motion, The increased use of multiple imaging modalities to determine the tumor volume, necessitates (deformable) image and contour fusion, and the resulting uncertainties introduced in the image registration process further contribute to overall treatment planning uncertainties. Each of these uncertainties must be quantified and their impact on treatment delivery accuracy understood. If necessary, the uncertainties may then be accounted for during treatment planning either through techniques to make the uncertainty explicit, or by the appropriate addition of PTV margins. Further complicating matters, the statistics of 1-5 fraction SRS treatments differ from traditional margin recipes relying on Poisson statistics. In this session, we will discuss uncertainties introduced during each step of the SRS treatment planning and delivery process and present margin recipes to appropriately account for such uncertainties. Learning Objectives: To understand the major contributors to the total delivery uncertainty in SRS for Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, and linac-based SRS. Learn the various uncertainties introduced by image fusion, deformable image registration, and contouring

Typewriting Syllabus: Part II: Modules. 1976 Revision.

Science.gov (United States)

New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Occupational and Career Curriculum Development.

The document is the second of a two-part set on typewriting and focuses on the nine modules of instruction. The nine modules are: (1) keyboard mastery and skill development, (2) basic typewriting competencies, (2a) personal use typewriting, (3) introduction to office typewriting I, (4) introduction to office typewriting II, (5) intermediate office…

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ALTERNATE FUELS EXISTING POWERPLANTS Pt. 504, App. II Appendix II to Part... effects of future real price increases for each fuel. The delivered price of an alternate fuel used to calculate delivered fuel expenses must reflect the petitioner's delivered price of the alternate fuel and...

46 CFR Appendix II to Part 150 - Explanation of Figure 1

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... COMPATIBILITY OF CARGOES Pt. 150, App. II Appendix II to Part 150—Explanation of Figure 1 Definition of a..., aromatic hydrocarbons or paraffins. Others will form hazardous combinations with many groups: For example...

40 CFR Appendix II to Part 1042 - Steady-State Duty Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Steady-State Duty Cycles II Appendix..., App. II Appendix II to Part 1042—Steady-State Duty Cycles (a) The following duty cycles apply as specified in § 1042.505(b)(1): (1) The following duty cycle applies for discrete-mode testing: E3 mode No...

Kick, Glide, Pole! Cross-Country Skiing Fun (Part II)

Science.gov (United States)

Duoos, Bridget A.

2012-01-01

Part I of Kick, Glide, Pole! Cross-Country Skiing Fun, which was published in last issue, discussed how to select cross-country ski equipment, dress for the activity and the biomechanics of the diagonal stride. Part II focuses on teaching the diagonal stride technique and begins with a progression of indoor activities. Incorporating this fun,…

Inverse modeling and uncertainty analysis of potential groundwater recharge to the confined semi-fossil Ohangwena II Aquifer, Namibia

Science.gov (United States)

Wallner, Markus; Houben, Georg; Lohe, Christoph; Quinger, Martin; Himmelsbach, Thomas

2017-12-01

The identification of potential recharge areas and estimation of recharge rates to the confined semi-fossil Ohangwena II Aquifer (KOH-2) is crucial for its future sustainable use. The KOH-2 is located within the endorheic transboundary Cuvelai-Etosha-Basin (CEB), shared by Angola and Namibia. The main objective was the development of a strategy to tackle the problem of data scarcity, which is a well-known problem in semi-arid regions. In a first step, conceptual geological cross sections were created to illustrate the possible geological setting of the system. Furthermore, groundwater travel times were estimated by simple hydraulic calculations. A two-dimensional numerical groundwater model was set up to analyze flow patterns and potential recharge zones. The model was optimized against local observations of hydraulic heads and groundwater age. The sensitivity of the model against different boundary conditions and internal structures was tested. Parameter uncertainty and recharge rates were estimated. Results indicate that groundwater recharge to the KOH-2 mainly occurs from the Angolan Highlands in the northeastern part of the CEB. The sensitivity of the groundwater model to different internal structures is relatively small in comparison to changing boundary conditions in the form of influent or effluent streams. Uncertainty analysis underlined previous results, indicating groundwater recharge originating from the Angolan Highlands. The estimated recharge rates are less than 1% of mean yearly precipitation, which are reasonable for semi-arid regions.

PREREM: an interactive data preprocessing code for INREM II. Part I: user's manual. Part II: code structure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ryan, M.T.; Fields, D.E.

1981-05-01

PREREM is an interactive computer code developed as a data preprocessor for the INREM-II (Killough, Dunning, and Pleasant, 1978a) internal dose program. PREREM is intended to provide easy access to current and self-consistent nuclear decay and radionuclide-specific metabolic data sets. Provision is made for revision of metabolic data, and the code is intended for both production and research applications. Documentation for the code is in two parts. Part I is a user's manual which emphasizes interpretation of program prompts and choice of user input. Part II stresses internal structure and flow of program control and is intended to assist the researcher who wishes to revise or modify the code or add to its capabilities. PREREM is written for execution on a Digital Equipment Corporation PDP-10 System and much of the code will require revision before it can be run on other machines. The source program length is 950 lines (116 blocks) and computer core required for execution is 212 K bytes. The user must also have sufficient file space for metabolic and S-factor data sets. Further, 64 100 K byte blocks of computer storage space are required for the nuclear decay data file. Computer storage space must also be available for any output files produced during the PREREM execution. 9 refs., 8 tabs.

The Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory: Validity and Comparison of Scoring Methods to Assess Individuals Screening Positive for Anxiety and Depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauriola, Marco; Mosca, Oriana; Trentini, Cristina; Foschi, Renato; Tambelli, Renata; Carleton, R Nicholas

2018-01-01

Intolerance of Uncertainty is a fundamental transdiagnostic personality construct hierarchically organized with a core general factor underlying diverse clinical manifestations. The current study evaluated the construct validity of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory, a two-part scale separately assessing a unitary Intolerance of Uncertainty disposition to consider uncertainties to be unacceptable and threatening (Part A) and the consequences of such disposition, regarding experiential avoidance, chronic doubt, overestimation of threat, worrying, control of uncertain situations, and seeking reassurance (Part B). Community members ( N = 1046; Mean age = 36.69 ± 12.31 years; 61% females) completed the Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory with the Beck Depression Inventory-II and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Part A demonstrated a robust unidimensional structure and an excellent convergent validity with Part B. A bifactor model was the best fitting model for Part B. Based on these results, we compared the hierarchical factor scores with summated ratings clinical proxy groups reporting anxiety and depression symptoms. Summated rating scores were associated with both depression and anxiety and proportionally increased with the co-occurrence of depressive and anxious symptoms. By contrast, hierarchical scores were useful to detect which facets mostly separated between for depression and anxiety groups. In sum, Part A was a reliable and valid transdiagnostic measure of Intolerance of Uncertainty. The Part B was arguably more useful for assessing clinical manifestations of Intolerance of Uncertainty for specific disorders, provided that hierarchical scores are used. Overall, our study suggest that clinical assessments might need to shift toward hierarchical factor scores.

The Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory: Validity and Comparison of Scoring Methods to Assess Individuals Screening Positive for Anxiety and Depression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Lauriola

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Intolerance of Uncertainty is a fundamental transdiagnostic personality construct hierarchically organized with a core general factor underlying diverse clinical manifestations. The current study evaluated the construct validity of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory, a two-part scale separately assessing a unitary Intolerance of Uncertainty disposition to consider uncertainties to be unacceptable and threatening (Part A and the consequences of such disposition, regarding experiential avoidance, chronic doubt, overestimation of threat, worrying, control of uncertain situations, and seeking reassurance (Part B. Community members (N = 1046; Mean age = 36.69 ± 12.31 years; 61% females completed the Intolerance of Uncertainty Inventory with the Beck Depression Inventory-II and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Part A demonstrated a robust unidimensional structure and an excellent convergent validity with Part B. A bifactor model was the best fitting model for Part B. Based on these results, we compared the hierarchical factor scores with summated ratings clinical proxy groups reporting anxiety and depression symptoms. Summated rating scores were associated with both depression and anxiety and proportionally increased with the co-occurrence of depressive and anxious symptoms. By contrast, hierarchical scores were useful to detect which facets mostly separated between for depression and anxiety groups. In sum, Part A was a reliable and valid transdiagnostic measure of Intolerance of Uncertainty. The Part B was arguably more useful for assessing clinical manifestations of Intolerance of Uncertainty for specific disorders, provided that hierarchical scores are used. Overall, our study suggest that clinical assessments might need to shift toward hierarchical factor scores.

Propagation of uncertainties through the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II: operational application to the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Lecci, Rita

2017-04-01

. Uncertainty imprints in the oil mass balance components are also analyzed. This work is conducted in the framework of the REACT Project funded by Fondazione CON IL SUD/Brains2South. References Ciliberti, S.A., Peneva, E., Storto, A., Kandilarov, R., Lecci, R., Yang, C., Coppini, G., Masina, S., Pinardi, N., 2016. Implementation of Black Sea numerical model based on NEMO and 3DVAR data assimilation scheme for operational forecasting, Geophys. Res. Abs., 18, EGU2016-16222. De Dominicis, M., Pinardi, N., Zodiatis, G., Lardner, R., 2013. MEDSLIK-II, a Lagrangian marine surface oil spill model for short term forecasting-Part 1: Theory, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851-1869. Liubartseva, S., Coppini, G., Pinardi, N., De Dominicis, M., Lecci, R., Turrisi, G., Cretì, S., Martinelli, S., Agostini, P., Marra, P., Palermo, F., 2016. Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009-2020.

Intelligent Information Retrieval: Diagnosing Information Need. Part II. Uncertainty Expansion in a Prototype of a Diagnostic IR Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Charles; Cantero, Pablo; Sauve, Diane

1998-01-01

Outlines a prototype of an intelligent information-retrieval tool to facilitate information access for an undergraduate seeking information for a term paper. Topics include diagnosing the information need, Kuhlthau's information-search-process model, Shannon's mathematical theory of communication, and principles of uncertainty expansion and…

Calculus of Elementary Functions, Part II. Teacher's Commentary. Revised Edition.

Science.gov (United States)

Herriot, Sarah T.; And Others

This course is intended for students who have a thorough knowledge of college preparatory mathematics, including algebra, axiomatic geometry, trigonometry, and analytic geometry. This teacher's guide is for Part II of the course. It is designed to follow Part I of the text. The guide contains background information, suggested instructional…

Calculus of Elementary Functions, Part II. Student Text. Revised Edition.

Science.gov (United States)

Herriot, Sarah T.; And Others

This course is intended for students who have a thorough knowledge of college preparatory mathematics, including algebra, axiomatic geometry, trigonometry, and analytic geometry. This text, Part II, contains material designed to follow Part I. Chapters included in this text are: (6) Derivatives of Exponential and Related Functions; (7) Area and…

Nursing Care of Patients Undergoing Chemotherapy Desensitization: Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Jakel, Patricia; Carsten, Cynthia; Carino, Arvie; Braskett, Melinda

2016-04-01

Chemotherapy desensitization protocols are safe, but labor-intensive, processes that allow patients with cancer to receive medications even if they initially experienced severe hypersensitivity reactions. Part I of this column discussed the pathophysiology of hypersensitivity reactions and described the development of desensitization protocols in oncology settings. Part II incorporates the experiences of an academic medical center and provides a practical guide for the nursing care of patients undergoing chemotherapy desensitization.
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40 CFR Appendix II to Part 1054 - Duty Cycles for Laboratory Testing

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Duty Cycles for Laboratory Testing II.... 1054, App. II Appendix II to Part 1054—Duty Cycles for Laboratory Testing (a) Test handheld engines with the following steady-state duty cycle: G3 mode No. Engine speed a Torque(percent) b Weighting...

NUPEC BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) Benchmark. Volume II: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of void distribution and critical power - Specification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aydogan, F.; Hochreiter, L.; Ivanov, K.; Martin, M.; Utsuno, H.; Sartori, E.

2010-01-01

This report provides the specification for the uncertainty exercises of the international OECD/NEA, NRC and NUPEC BFBT benchmark problem including the elemental task. The specification was prepared jointly by Pennsylvania State University (PSU), USA and the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety (JNES) Organisation, in cooperation with the OECD/NEA and the Commissariat a l'energie atomique (CEA Saclay, France). The work is sponsored by the US NRC, METI-Japan, the OECD/NEA and the Nuclear Engineering Program (NEP) of Pennsylvania State University. This uncertainty specification covers the fourth exercise of Phase I (Exercise-I-4), and the third exercise of Phase II (Exercise II-3) as well as the elemental task. The OECD/NRC BFBT benchmark provides a very good opportunity to apply uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques and to assess the accuracy of thermal-hydraulic models for two-phase flows in rod bundles. During the previous OECD benchmarks, participants usually carried out sensitivity analysis on their models for the specification (initial conditions, boundary conditions, etc.) to identify the most sensitive models or/and to improve the computed results. The comprehensive BFBT experimental database (NEA, 2006) leads us one step further in investigating modelling capabilities by taking into account the uncertainty analysis in the benchmark. The uncertainties in input data (boundary conditions) and geometry (provided in the benchmark specification) as well as the uncertainties in code models can be accounted for to produce results with calculational uncertainties and compare them with the measurement uncertainties. Therefore, uncertainty analysis exercises were defined for the void distribution and critical power phases of the BFBT benchmark. This specification is intended to provide definitions related to UA/SA methods, sensitivity/ uncertainty parameters, suggested probability distribution functions (PDF) of sensitivity parameters, and selected

40 CFR Appendix II to Part 1039 - Steady-State Duty Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Steady-State Duty Cycles II Appendix... Appendix II to Part 1039—Steady-State Duty Cycles (a) The following duty cycles apply for constant-speed engines: (1) The following duty cycle applies for discrete-mode testing: D2 mode number Engine speed...

First international 26Al interlaboratory comparison - Part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merchel, Silke; Bremser, Wolfram

2005-01-01

After finishing Part I of the first international 26 Al interlaboratory comparison with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) laboratories [S. Merchel, W. Bremser, Nucl. Instr. and Meth. B 223-224 (2004) 393], the evaluation of Part II with radionuclide counting laboratories took place. The evaluation of the results of the seven participating laboratories on four meteorite samples shows a good overall agreement between laboratories, i.e. it does not reveal any statistically significant differences if results are compared sample-by-sample. However, certain interlaboratory bias is observed with a more detailed statistical analysis including some multivariate approaches

Programming Models for Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamics on the CM-5 (Part II)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amala, P.A.K.; Rodrigue, G.H.

1994-01-01

This is a two-part presentation of a timing study on the Thinking Machines CORP. CM-5 computer. Part II is given in this study and represents domain-decomposition and message-passing models. Part I described computational problems using a SIMD model and connection machine FORTRAN (CMF)

Continuum Thermodynamics - Part II: Applications and Examples

Science.gov (United States)

Albers, Bettina; Wilmanski, Krzysztof

The intention by writing Part II of the book on continuum thermodynamics was the deepening of some issues covered in Part I as well as a development of certain skills in dealing with practical problems of oscopic processes. However, the main motivation for this part is the presentation of main facets of thermodynamics which appear when interdisciplinary problems are considered. There are many monographs on the subjects of solid mechanics and thermomechanics, on fluid mechanics and on coupled fields but most of them cover only special problems in great details which are characteristic for the chosen field. It is rather seldom that relations between these fields are discussed. This concerns, for instance, large deformations of the skeleton of porous materials with diffusion (e.g. lungs), couplings of deformable particles with the fluid motion in suspensions, couplings of adsorption processes and chemical reactions in immiscible mixtures with diffusion, various multi-component aspects of the motion, e.g. of avalanches, such as segregation processes, etc...

Benchmark matrix and guide: Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

In the last issue of the Journal of Quality Assurance (September/October 1991, Volume 13, Number 5, pp. 14-19), the benchmark matrix developed by Headquarters Air Force Logistics Command was published. Five horizontal levels on the matrix delineate progress in TQM: business as usual, initiation, implementation, expansion, and integration. The six vertical categories that are critical to the success of TQM are leadership, structure, training, recognition, process improvement, and customer focus. In this issue, "Benchmark Matrix and Guide: Part II" will show specifically how to apply the categories of leadership, structure, and training to the benchmark matrix progress levels. At the intersection of each category and level, specific behavior objectives are listed with supporting behaviors and guidelines. Some categories will have objectives that are relatively easy to accomplish, allowing quick progress from one level to the next. Other categories will take considerable time and effort to complete. In the next issue, Part III of this series will focus on recognition, process improvement, and customer focus.

12 CFR Appendix II to Part 27 - Information for Government Monitoring Purposes

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... II Appendix II to Part 27 Banks and Banking COMPTROLLER OF THE CURRENCY, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY... Monitoring Purposes The following language is approved by the Comptroller of the Currency and will satisfy... used separately. This information may also be provided orally by the applicant. The following...

31 CFR Appendix II to Part 13 - Form of Bill for Reimbursement

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Form of Bill for Reimbursement II Appendix II to Part 13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury PROCEDURES FOR... title) of ______ (Country) to participate in the work of ______ (International Organization) or...

10 CFR Appendix II to Part 1050 - DOE Form 3735.3-Foreign Travel Statement

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... is official agency business. Spouses and dependents may accept such travel and expenses only when... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false DOE Form 3735.3-Foreign Travel Statement II Appendix II to.... II Appendix II to Part 1050—DOE Form 3735.3—Foreign Travel Statement EC01OC91.041 Statement...

Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

2016-01-01

Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models.

Science.gov (United States)

Radomyski, Artur; Giubilato, Elisa; Ciffroy, Philippe; Critto, Andrea; Brochot, Céline; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying reactor safety margins: Application of CSAU [Code Scalability, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology to LBLOCA: Part 3, Assessment and ranging of parameters for the uncertainty analysis of LBLOCA codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wulff, W.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.

1988-01-01

Comparisons of results from TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code calculations with measurements from Separate Effects Tests, and published experimental data for modeling parameters have been used to determine the uncertainty ranges of code input and modeling parameters which dominate the uncertainty in predicting the Peak Clad Temperature for a postulated Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident (LBLOCA) in a four-loop Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactor. The uncertainty ranges are used for a detailed statistical analysis to calculate the probability distribution function for the TRAC code-predicted Peak Clad Temperature, as is described in an attendant paper. Measurements from Separate Effects Tests and Integral Effects Tests have been compared with results from corresponding TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code calculations to determine globally the total uncertainty in predicting the Peak Clad Temperature for LBLOCAs. This determination is in support of the detailed statistical analysis mentioned above. The analyses presented here account for uncertainties in input parameters, in modeling and scaling, in computing and in measurements. The analyses are an important part of the work needed to implement the Code Scalability, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology. CSAU is needed to determine the suitability of a computer code for reactor safety analyses and the uncertainty in computer predictions. The results presented here are used to estimate the safety margin of a particular nuclear reactor power plant for a postulated accident. 25 refs., 10 figs., 11 tabs

A Survey of Optometry Graduates to Determine Practice Patterns: Part II: Licensure and Practice Establishment Experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleimann, Robert L.; Smith, Lee W.

1985-01-01

A summary of Part II of a two-volume study of optometry graduates conducted by the Association of Schools and Colleges of Optometry is presented. Part II includes the analysis of the graduates' licensure and practice establishment experiences. (MLW)

Interactions between perceived uncertainty types in service dyads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreye, Melanie

2018-01-01

to avoid business failure. A conceptual framework of four uncertainty types is investigated: environmental, technological, organisational, and relational uncertainty. We present insights from four empirical cases of service dyads collected via multiple sources of evidence including 54 semi-structured...... interviews, observations, and secondary data. The cases show seven interaction paths with direct knock-on effects between two uncertainty types and indirect knock-on effects between three or four uncertainty types. The findings suggest a causal chain from environmental, technological, organisational......, to relational uncertainty. This research contributes to the servitization literature by (i) con-firming the existence of uncertainty types, (ii) providing an in-depth characterisation of technological uncertainty, and (iii) showing the interaction paths between four uncertainty types in the form of a causal...

Healing and relaxation in flows of helium II. Part II. First, second, and fourth sound

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hills, R.N.; Roberts, P.H.

1978-01-01

In Part I of this series, a theory of helium II incorporating the effects of quantum healing and relaxation was developed. In this paper, the propagation of first, second, and fourth sound is discussed. Particular attention is paid to sound propagation in the vicinity of the lambda point where the effects of relaxation and quantum healing become important

Blade System Design Study. Part II, final project report (GEC).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Griffin, Dayton A. (DNV Global Energy Concepts Inc., Seattle, WA)

2009-05-01

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Low Wind Speed Turbine program, Global Energy Concepts LLC (GEC)1 has studied alternative composite materials for wind turbine blades in the multi-megawatt size range. This work in one of the Blade System Design Studies (BSDS) funded through Sandia National Laboratories. The BSDS program was conducted in two phases. In the Part I BSDS, GEC assessed candidate innovations in composite materials, manufacturing processes, and structural configurations. GEC also made recommendations for testing composite coupons, details, assemblies, and blade substructures to be carried out in the Part II study (BSDS-II). The BSDS-II contract period began in May 2003, and testing was initiated in June 2004. The current report summarizes the results from the BSDS-II test program. Composite materials evaluated include carbon fiber in both pre-impregnated and vacuum-assisted resin transfer molding (VARTM) forms. Initial thin-coupon static testing included a wide range of parameters, including variation in manufacturer, fiber tow size, fabric architecture, and resin type. A smaller set of these materials and process types was also evaluated in thin-coupon fatigue testing, and in ply-drop and ply-transition panels. The majority of materials used epoxy resin, with vinyl ester (VE) resin also used for selected cases. Late in the project, testing of unidirectional fiberglass was added to provide an updated baseline against which to evaluate the carbon material performance. Numerous unidirectional carbon fabrics were considered for evaluation with VARTM infusion. All but one fabric style considered suffered either from poor infusibility or waviness of fibers combined with poor compaction. The exception was a triaxial carbon-fiberglass fabric produced by SAERTEX. This fabric became the primary choice for infused articles throughout the test program. The generally positive results obtained in this program for the SAERTEX material have led to its

The Mid America Heart Institute: part II.

Science.gov (United States)

McCallister, Ben D; Steinhaus, David M

2003-01-01

The Mid America Heart Institute (MAHI) is one of the first and largest hospitals developed and designed specifically for cardiovascular care. The MAHI hybrid model, which is a partnership between the not-for-profit Saint Luke's Health System, an independent academic medical center, and a private practice physician group, has been extremely successful in providing high-quality patient care as well as developing strong educational and research programs. The Heart Institute has been the leader in providing cardiovascular care in the Kansas City region since its inception in 1975. Although challenges in the future are substantial, it is felt that the MAHI is in an excellent position to deal with the serious issues in health care because of the Heart Institute, its facility, organization, administration, dedicated medical and support staff, and its unique business model of physician management. In part I, the authors described the background and infrastructure of the Heart Institute. In part II, cardiovascular research and benefits of physician management are addressed.

Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

2018-05-01

Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

Marketing in the E-Business World, Parts I & II | Smith | LBS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Marketing in the E-Business World, Parts I & II. ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... of many of Americas largest companies gather at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York City for the Conference Boards Annual Marketing Conference.

40 CFR Appendix II to Part 1045 - Duty Cycles for Propulsion Marine Engines

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Duty Cycles for Propulsion Marine... Pt. 1045, App. II Appendix II to Part 1045—Duty Cycles for Propulsion Marine Engines (a) The following duty cycle applies for discrete-mode testing: E4 Mode No. Enginespeed 1 Torque(percent) 2...

Methods of humidity determination Part II: Determination of material humidity

OpenAIRE

Rübner, Katrin; Balköse, Devrim; Robens, E.

2008-01-01

Part II covers the most common methods of measuring the humidity of solid material. State of water near solid surfaces, gravimetric measurement of material humidity, measurement of water sorption isotherms, chemical methods for determination of water content, measurement of material humidity via the gas phase, standardisation, cosmonautical observations are reviewed.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

THE SPECTRUM AND TERM ANALYSIS OF V II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorne, A. P.; Pickering, J. C.; Semeniuk, J. I.

2013-01-01

The spectrum and extended term analysis of V II are presented. Fourier transform spectrometry was used to record high resolution spectra of singly ionized vanadium in the region 1492-5800 Å (67020-17260 cm –1 ) with vanadium-neon and vanadium-argon hollow cathode lamps as sources. The wavenumber uncertainty for the center of gravity of the strongest lines is typically 0.002 cm –1 , an improvement of an order of magnitude over previous measurements. Most of the lines exhibit partly resolved hyperfine structure. The V II energy levels in the 1985 compilation of Sugar and Corliss have been confirmed and revised, with the exception of the high-lying 4f levels and eight of the lower levels. Thirty-nine of the additional eighty-five high levels published by Iglesias et al. have also been confirmed and revised, and three of their missing levels have been found. The energy uncertainty of the revised levels has been reduced by about an order of magnitude. In total, 176 even levels and 233 odd levels are presented. Wavenumbers and classifications are given for 1242 V II lines

The year 2012 in the European Heart Journal-Cardiovascular Imaging. Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Plein, Sven; Knuuti, Juhani; Edvardsen, Thor; Saraste, Antti; Piérard, Luc A; Maurer, Gerald; Lancellotti, Patrizio

2013-07-01

The part II of the best of the European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging in 2012 specifically focuses on studies of valvular heart diseases, heart failure, cardiomyopathies, and congenital heart diseases.

On the Efficiency of Connection Charges---Part II: Integration of Distributed Energy Resources

OpenAIRE

Munoz-Alvarez, Daniel; Garcia-Franco, Juan F.; Tong, Lang

2017-01-01

This two-part paper addresses the design of retail electricity tariffs for distribution systems with distributed energy resources (DERs). Part I presents a framework to optimize an ex-ante two-part tariff for a regulated monopolistic retailer who faces stochastic wholesale prices on the one hand and stochastic demand on the other. In Part II, the integration of DERs is addressed by analyzing their endogenous effect on the optimal two-part tariff and the induced welfare gains. Two DER integrat...

Proposed standardized definitions for vertical resolution and uncertainty in the NDACC lidar ozone and temperature algorithms - Part 3: Temperature uncertainty budget

Science.gov (United States)

Leblanc, Thierry; Sica, Robert J.; van Gijsel, Joanna A. E.; Haefele, Alexander; Payen, Guillaume; Liberti, Gianluigi

2016-08-01

A standardized approach for the definition, propagation, and reporting of uncertainty in the temperature lidar data products contributing to the Network for the Detection for Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) database is proposed. One important aspect of the proposed approach is the ability to propagate all independent uncertainty components in parallel through the data processing chain. The individual uncertainty components are then combined together at the very last stage of processing to form the temperature combined standard uncertainty. The identified uncertainty sources comprise major components such as signal detection, saturation correction, background noise extraction, temperature tie-on at the top of the profile, and absorption by ozone if working in the visible spectrum, as well as other components such as molecular extinction, the acceleration of gravity, and the molecular mass of air, whose magnitudes depend on the instrument, data processing algorithm, and altitude range of interest. The expression of the individual uncertainty components and their step-by-step propagation through the temperature data processing chain are thoroughly estimated, taking into account the effect of vertical filtering and the merging of multiple channels. All sources of uncertainty except detection noise imply correlated terms in the vertical dimension, which means that covariance terms must be taken into account when vertical filtering is applied and when temperature is integrated from the top of the profile. Quantitatively, the uncertainty budget is presented in a generic form (i.e., as a function of instrument performance and wavelength), so that any NDACC temperature lidar investigator can easily estimate the expected impact of individual uncertainty components in the case of their own instrument. Using this standardized approach, an example of uncertainty budget is provided for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawai'i, which is

Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2016-01-01

Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

ARI3SG: Aerosol retention in the secondary side of a steam generator. Part II: Model validation and uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, Claudia; Herranz, Luis E.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Validation of a model (ARI3SG) for the aerosol retention in the break stage of a steam generator under SGTR conditions. ► Interpretation of the experimental SGTR and CAAT data by using the ARI3SG model. ► Assessment of the epistemic and stochastic uncertainties effect on the ARI3SG results. - Abstract: A large body of data has been gathered in the last decade through the EU-SGTR, ARTIST and ARTIST 2 projects for aerosol retention in the steam generator during SGTR severe accident sequences. At the same time the attempt to extend the analytical capability has resulted in models that need to be validated. The ARI3SG is one of such developments and it has been built to estimate the aerosol retention in the break stage of a “dry” steam generator. This paper assesses the ARI3SG predictability by comparing its estimates to open data and by analyzing the effect of associated uncertainties. Datamodel comparison has been shown to be satisfactory and highlight the potential use of an ARI3SG-like formulation in system codes.

Subseabed disposal program annual report, January-December 1979. Volume II. Appendices (principal investigator progress reports). Part 2 of 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talbert, D.M.

1981-04-01

Volume II of the sixth annual report describing the progress and evaluating the status of the Subseabed Disposal Program contains the appendices referred to in Volume II, Summary and Status. Because of the length of Volume II, it has been split into two parts for publication purposes. Part 1 contains Appendices A-O; Part 2 contains Appendices P-FF. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each appendix for inclusion in the Energy Data Base

Decay heat uncertainty quantification of MYRRHA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fiorito Luca

2017-01-01

Full Text Available MYRRHA is a lead-bismuth cooled MOX-fueled accelerator driven system (ADS currently in the design phase at SCK·CEN in Belgium. The correct evaluation of the decay heat and of its uncertainty level is very important for the safety demonstration of the reactor. In the first part of this work we assessed the decay heat released by the MYRRHA core using the ALEPH-2 burnup code. The second part of the study focused on the nuclear data uncertainty and covariance propagation to the MYRRHA decay heat. Radioactive decay data, independent fission yield and cross section uncertainties/covariances were propagated using two nuclear data sampling codes, namely NUDUNA and SANDY. According to the results, 238U cross sections and fission yield data are the largest contributors to the MYRRHA decay heat uncertainty. The calculated uncertainty values are deemed acceptable from the safety point of view as they are well within the available regulatory limits.

Subseabed disposal program annual report, January-December 1980. Volume II. Appendices (principal investigator progress reports). Part 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinga, K.R.

1981-07-01

Volume II of the sixth annual report describing the progress and evaluating the status of the Subseabed Disposal Program contains the appendices referred to in Volume I, Summary and Status. Because of the length of Volume II, it has been split into two parts for publication purposes. Part 1 contains Appendices A-Q; Part 2 contains Appendices R-MM. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each appendix for inclusion in the Energy Data Base

Subseabed disposal program annual report, January-December 1980. Volume II. Appendices (principal investigator progress reports). Part 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hinga, K.R. (ed.)

1981-07-01

Volume II of the sixth annual report describing the progress and evaluating the status of the Subseabed Disposal Program contains the appendices referred to in Volume I, Summary and Status. Because of the length of Volume II, it has been split into two parts for publication purposes. Part 1 contains Appendices A-Q; Part 2 contains Appendices R-MM. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each appendix for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

2013-01-01

as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

Uncertainty Quantification in Aerodynamics Simulations, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of the proposed work (Phases I and II) is to develop uncertainty quantification methodologies and software suitable for use in CFD simulations of...

Starting a hospital-based home health agency: Part II--Key success factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Montgomery, P

1993-09-01

In Part II of a three-part series, the financial, technological and legislative issues of a hospital-based home health-agency are discussed. Beginning a home healthcare service requires intensive research to answer key environmental and operational questions--need, competition, financial projections, initial start-up costs and the impact of delayed depreciation. Assessments involving technology, staffing, legislative and regulatory issues can help project service volume, productivity and cost-control.

Association Between National Board Dental Examination Part II Scores and Comprehensive Examinations at Harvard School of Dental Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Min Kyeong; Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Howell, T Howard; Karimbux, Nadeem Y

2011-01-01

Harvard School of Dental Medicine (HSDM) uses a hybrid problem-based approach to teaching in the predoctoral program. The objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) is a formative examination designed to assess the performance of students in the problem-based learning (PBL) curriculum. At HSDM three comprehensive examinations with OSCE components are administered during the third and fourth years of clinical training. The National Board Dental Examination (NBDE) Part II is taken in the final year of the predoctoral program. This study examines the association between the NBDE Part II and the comprehensive exams held at HSDM. Predoctoral students from the HSDM classes of 2005 and 2006 were included in this study. The outcome variable of interest was the scores obtained by students in the NBDE Part II, and the main independent variable of interest was the performance of students in the comprehensive exams (honors, pass, make-up exam to pass). The Mann-Whitney U-test was used to examine the association between the grades obtained in the each of the three comprehensive exams and the NBDE Part II scores. Multivariable linear regression analysis was also used to examine the association between the NBDE Part II scores and the comprehensive exam grades. The effect of potential confounding factors including age, sex, and race/ethnicity was adjusted. The results suggest that students who performed well in the comprehensive exams performed better on the NBDE Part II, even after adjusting for confounding factors. Future studies will examine the long-term impact of PBL on postdoctoral plans and career choices.

Treatment of uncertainties in atmospheric chemical systems: A combined modeling and experimental approach

Science.gov (United States)

Pun, Betty Kong-Ling

1998-12-01

Uncertainty is endemic in modeling. This thesis is a two- phase program to understand the uncertainties in urban air pollution model predictions and in field data used to validate them. Part I demonstrates how to improve atmospheric models by analyzing the uncertainties in these models and using the results to guide new experimentation endeavors. Part II presents an experiment designed to characterize atmospheric fluctuations, which have significant implications towards the model validation process. A systematic study was undertaken to investigate the effects of uncertainties in the SAPRC mechanism for gas- phase chemistry in polluted atmospheres. The uncertainties of more than 500 parameters were compiled, including reaction rate constants, product coefficients, organic composition, and initial conditions. Uncertainty propagation using the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method (DEMM) revealed that the uncertainties in ozone predictions can be up to 45% based on these parametric uncertainties. The key parameters found to dominate the uncertainties of the predictions include photolysis rates of NO2, O3, and formaldehyde; the rate constant for nitric acid formation; and initial amounts of NOx and VOC. Similar uncertainty analysis procedures applied to two other mechanisms used in regional air quality models led to the conclusion that in the presence of parametric uncertainties, the mechanisms cannot be discriminated. Research efforts should focus on reducing parametric uncertainties in photolysis rates, reaction rate constants, and source terms. A new tunable diode laser (TDL) infrared spectrometer was designed and constructed to measure multiple pollutants simultaneously in the same ambient air parcels. The sensitivities of the one hertz measurements were 2 ppb for ozone, 1 ppb for NO, and 0.5 ppb for NO2. Meteorological data were also collected for wind, temperature, and UV intensity. The field data showed clear correlations between ozone, NO, and NO2 in the one

Proposed standardized definitions for vertical resolution and uncertainty in the NDACC lidar ozone and temperature algorithms - Part 2: Ozone DIAL uncertainty budget

Science.gov (United States)

Leblanc, Thierry; Sica, Robert J.; van Gijsel, Joanna A. E.; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Haefele, Alexander; Trickl, Thomas; Payen, Guillaume; Liberti, Gianluigi

2016-08-01

A standardized approach for the definition, propagation, and reporting of uncertainty in the ozone differential absorption lidar data products contributing to the Network for the Detection for Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) database is proposed. One essential aspect of the proposed approach is the propagation in parallel of all independent uncertainty components through the data processing chain before they are combined together to form the ozone combined standard uncertainty. The independent uncertainty components contributing to the overall budget include random noise associated with signal detection, uncertainty due to saturation correction, background noise extraction, the absorption cross sections of O3, NO2, SO2, and O2, the molecular extinction cross sections, and the number densities of the air, NO2, and SO2. The expression of the individual uncertainty components and their step-by-step propagation through the ozone differential absorption lidar (DIAL) processing chain are thoroughly estimated. All sources of uncertainty except detection noise imply correlated terms in the vertical dimension, which requires knowledge of the covariance matrix when the lidar signal is vertically filtered. In addition, the covariance terms must be taken into account if the same detection hardware is shared by the lidar receiver channels at the absorbed and non-absorbed wavelengths. The ozone uncertainty budget is presented as much as possible in a generic form (i.e., as a function of instrument performance and wavelength) so that all NDACC ozone DIAL investigators across the network can estimate, for their own instrument and in a straightforward manner, the expected impact of each reviewed uncertainty component. In addition, two actual examples of full uncertainty budget are provided, using nighttime measurements from the tropospheric ozone DIAL located at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Table Mountain Facility, California, and nighttime measurements from the JPL

Post-BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) Benchmark Phase II: Identification of Influential Parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovtonyuk, A.; Petruzzi, A.; D'Auria, F.

2015-01-01

The objective of the Post-BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods (PREMIUM) benchmark is to progress on the issue of the quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in system thermal-hydraulic codes by considering a concrete case: the physical models involved in the prediction of core reflooding. The PREMIUM benchmark consists of five phases. This report presents the results of Phase II dedicated to the identification of the uncertain code parameters associated with physical models used in the simulation of reflooding conditions. This identification is made on the basis of the Test 216 of the FEBA/SEFLEX programme according to the following steps: - identification of influential phenomena; - identification of the associated physical models and parameters, depending on the used code; - quantification of the variation range of identified input parameters through a series of sensitivity calculations. A procedure for the identification of potentially influential code input parameters has been set up in the Specifications of Phase II of PREMIUM benchmark. A set of quantitative criteria has been as well proposed for the identification of influential IP and their respective variation range. Thirteen participating organisations, using 8 different codes (7 system thermal-hydraulic codes and 1 sub-channel module of a system thermal-hydraulic code) submitted Phase II results. The base case calculations show spread in predicted cladding temperatures and quench front propagation that has been characterized. All the participants, except one, predict a too fast quench front progression. Besides, the cladding temperature time trends obtained by almost all the participants show oscillatory behaviour which may have numeric origins. Adopted criteria for identification of influential input parameters differ between the participants: some organisations used the set of criteria proposed in Specifications 'as is', some modified the quantitative thresholds

Intelligent control of HVAC systems. Part II: perceptron performance analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioan URSU

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This is the second part of a paper on intelligent type control of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC systems. The whole study proposes a unified approach in the design of intelligent control for such systems, to ensure high energy efficiency and air quality improving. In the first part of the study it is considered as benchmark system a single thermal space HVAC system, for which it is assigned a mathematical model of the controlled system and a mathematical model(algorithm of intelligent control synthesis. The conception of the intelligent control is of switching type, between a simple neural network, a perceptron, which aims to decrease (optimize a cost index,and a fuzzy logic component, having supervisory antisaturating role for neuro-control. Based on numerical simulations, this Part II focuses on the analysis of system operation in the presence only ofthe neural control component. Working of the entire neuro-fuzzy system will be reported in a third part of the study.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in reactivity-initiated accident fuel modeling: synthesis of organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD/nuclear energy agency (NEA benchmark on reactivity-initiated accident codes phase-II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivier Marchand

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In the framework of OECD/NEA Working Group on Fuel Safety, a RIA fuel-rod-code Benchmark Phase I was organized in 2010–2013. It consisted of four experiments on highly irradiated fuel rodlets tested under different experimental conditions. This benchmark revealed the need to better understand the basic models incorporated in each code for realistic simulation of the complicated integral RIA tests with high burnup fuel rods. A second phase of the benchmark (Phase II was thus launched early in 2014, which has been organized in two complementary activities: (1 comparison of the results of different simulations on simplified cases in order to provide additional bases for understanding the differences in modelling of the concerned phenomena; (2 assessment of the uncertainty of the results. The present paper provides a summary and conclusions of the second activity of the Benchmark Phase II, which is based on the input uncertainty propagation methodology. The main conclusion is that uncertainties cannot fully explain the difference between the code predictions. Finally, based on the RIA benchmark Phase-I and Phase-II conclusions, some recommendations are made. Keywords: RIA, Codes Benchmarking, Fuel Modelling, OECD

International Working Group on Fast Reactors Thirteenth Annual Meeting. Summary Report. Part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-10-01

The Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the IAEA International Working Group on Fast Reactors was held at the IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria from 9 to 11 April 1980. The Summary Report (Part I) contains the Minutes of the Meeting. The Summary Report (Part II) contains the papers which review the national programme in the field of LMFBRs and other presentations at the Meeting. The Summary Report (Part III) contains the discussions on the review of the national programmes

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Measuring uncertainty within the theory of evidence

CERN Document Server

Salicone, Simona

2018-01-01

This monograph considers the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty within the mathematical framework of the Theory of Evidence. With a new perspective on the metrology science, the text paves the way for innovative applications in a wide range of areas. Building on Simona Salicone’s Measurement Uncertainty: An Approach via the Mathematical Theory of Evidence, the material covers further developments of the Random Fuzzy Variable (RFV) approach to uncertainty and provides a more robust mathematical and metrological background to the combination of measurement results that leads to a more effective RFV combination method. While the first part of the book introduces measurement uncertainty, the Theory of Evidence, and fuzzy sets, the following parts bring together these concepts and derive an effective methodology for the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty. A supplementary downloadable program allows the readers to interact with the proposed approach by generating and combining ...

Mama Software Features: Uncertainty Testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruggiero, Christy E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Porter, Reid B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2014-05-30

This document reviews how the uncertainty in the calculations is being determined with test image data. The results of this testing give an ‘initial uncertainty’ number than can be used to estimate the ‘back end’ uncertainty in digital image quantification in images. Statisticians are refining these numbers as part of a UQ effort.

Delivery systems for biopharmaceuticals. Part II: Liposomes, Micelles, Microemulsions and Dendrimers.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Ana C; Lopes, Carla M; Lobo, José M S; Amaral, Maria H

2015-01-01

Biopharmaceuticals are a generation of drugs that include peptides, proteins, nucleic acids and cell products. According to their particular molecular characteristics (e.g. high molecular size, susceptibility to enzymatic activity), these products present some limitations for administration and usually parenteral routes are the only option. To avoid these limitations, different colloidal carriers (e.g. liposomes, micelles, microemulsions and dendrimers) have been proposed to improve biopharmaceuticals delivery. Liposomes are promising drug delivery systems, despite some limitations have been reported (e.g. in vivo failure, poor long-term stability and low transfection efficiency), and only a limited number of formulations have reached the market. Micelles and microemulsions require more studies to exclude some of the observed drawbacks and guarantee their potential for use in clinic. According to their peculiar structures, dendrimers have been showing good results for nucleic acids delivery and a great development of these systems during next years is expected. This is the Part II of two review articles, which provides the state of the art of biopharmaceuticals delivery systems. Part II deals with liposomes, micelles, microemulsions and dendrimers.

Signs of revision in Don Quixote, Part II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonzalo Pontón

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This article provides new evidences in favour of the hypothesis that Cervantes, after finishing Don Quixote, Part II, partially revised the original, introducing some significant changes and additions, mainly in the last chapters. The analysis of some narrative inconsistencies, that cannot be interpreted as mere mistakes but as significant textual traces, reveals a process of re-elaboration –a process that affects at least four sections of the novel. Most of the evidence gathered here suggests that this revision is closely linked to Avellaneda’s continuation, in the sense that Cervantes tried to challenge the apocriphal Quixote making last-time interventions in his own text.

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Payne, Mark; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.

2016-01-01

with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability......Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated...... and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization...

Nursing as concrete philosophy, Part II: Engaging with reality.

Science.gov (United States)

Theodoridis, Kyriakos

2018-04-01

This is the second paper of an essay in two parts. The first paper (Part I) is a critical discussion of Mark Risjord's conception of nursing knowledge where I argued against the conception of nursing knowledge as a kind of nursing science. The aim of the present paper (Part II) is to explicate and substantiate the thesis of nursing as a kind of concrete philosophy. My strategy is to elaborate upon certain themes from Wittgenstein's Tractatus in order to canvass a general scheme of philosophy based on a distinction between reality and the world. This distinction will be employed in the appropriation of certain significant features of nursing and nursing knowledge. By elaborating on the contrast between the abstract and the concrete, I will suggest that nursing may be seen as a kind of concrete philosophy, being primarily concerned with reality (and secondarily with the world). This thesis, I will argue, implies that philosophy is the kind of theory that is essential to nursing (which is not so much a theory than a certain kind of activity). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impedance-Source Networks for Electric Power Conversion Part II

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Siwakoti, Yam P.; Peng, Fang Zheng; Blaabjerg, Frede

2015-01-01

Impedance-source networks cover the entire spectrum of electric power conversion applications (dc-dc, dc-ac, ac-dc, ac-ac) controlled and modulated by different modulation strategies to generate the desired dc or ac voltage and current at the output. A comprehensive review of various impedance......-source-network-based power converters has been covered in a previous paper and main topologies were discussed from an application point of view. Now Part II provides a comprehensive review of the most popular control and modulation strategies for impedance-source network-based power converters/inverters. These methods...

Evaluation of uncertainty of adaptive radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Molla, R.; Gomez Martin, C.; Vidueira, L.; Juan-Senabre, X.; Garcia Gomez, R.

2013-01-01

This work is part of tests to perform to its acceptance in the clinical practice. The uncertainties of adaptive radiation, and which will separate the study, can be divided into two large parts: dosimetry in the CBCT and RDI. At each stage, their uncertainties are quantified and a level of action from which it would be reasonable to adapt the plan may be obtained with the total. (Author)

Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in sampling based nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwermann, W.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Gallner, L.; Klein, M.; Pautz, A.; Velkov, K.

2012-01-01

Sampling based uncertainty and sensitivity analyses due to epistemic input uncertainties, i.e. to an incomplete knowledge of uncertain input parameters, can be performed with arbitrary application programs to solve the physical problem under consideration. For the description of steady-state particle transport, direct simulations of the microscopic processes with Monte Carlo codes are often used. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty, the aleatoric sampling uncertainty, which is due to the randomness of the simulation process performed by sampling, and which adds to the total combined output sampling uncertainty. So far, this aleatoric part of uncertainty is minimized by running a sufficiently large number of Monte Carlo histories for each sample calculation, thus making its impact negligible as compared to the impact from sampling the epistemic uncertainties. Obviously, this process may cause high computational costs. The present paper shows that in many applications reliable epistemic uncertainty results can also be obtained with substantially lower computational effort by performing and analyzing two appropriately generated series of samples with much smaller number of Monte Carlo histories each. The method is applied along with the nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity code package XSUSA in combination with the Monte Carlo transport code KENO-Va to various critical assemblies and a full scale reactor calculation. It is shown that the proposed method yields output uncertainties and sensitivities equivalent to the traditional approach, with a high reduction of computing time by factors of the magnitude of 100. (authors)

Quantification of uncertainties of modeling and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Zhibo; Yin Jianwei

2012-01-01

The principles of Modeling and Simulation (M and S) is interpreted by a functional relation, from which the total uncertainties of M and S are identified and sorted to three parts considered to vary along with the conceptual models' parameters. According to the idea of verification and validation, the space of the parameters is parted to verified and applied domains, uncertainties in the verified domain are quantified by comparison between numerical and standard results, and those in the applied domain are quantified by a newly developed extrapolating method. Examples are presented to demonstrate and qualify the ideas aimed to build a framework to quantify the uncertainties of M and S. (authors)

Decay heat uncertainty quantification of MYRRHA

OpenAIRE

Fiorito Luca; Buss Oliver; Hoefer Axel; Stankovskiy Alexey; Eynde Gert Van den

2017-01-01

MYRRHA is a lead-bismuth cooled MOX-fueled accelerator driven system (ADS) currently in the design phase at SCK·CEN in Belgium. The correct evaluation of the decay heat and of its uncertainty level is very important for the safety demonstration of the reactor. In the first part of this work we assessed the decay heat released by the MYRRHA core using the ALEPH-2 burnup code. The second part of the study focused on the nuclear data uncertainty and covariance propagation to the MYRRHA decay hea...

Pragmatic aspects of uncertainty propagation: A conceptual review

KAUST Repository

Thacker, W.Carlisle; Iskandarani, Mohamad; Gonç alves, Rafael C.; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar

2015-01-01

When quantifying the uncertainty of the response of a computationally costly oceanographic or meteorological model stemming from the uncertainty of its inputs, practicality demands getting the most information using the fewest simulations. It is widely recognized that, by interpolating the results of a small number of simulations, results of additional simulations can be inexpensively approximated to provide a useful estimate of the variability of the response. Even so, as computing the simulations to be interpolated remains the biggest expense, the choice of these simulations deserves attention. When making this choice, two requirement should be considered: (i) the nature of the interpolation and ii) the available information about input uncertainty. Examples comparing polynomial interpolation and Gaussian process interpolation are presented for three different views of input uncertainty.

Pragmatic aspects of uncertainty propagation: A conceptual review

KAUST Repository

Thacker, W.Carlisle

2015-09-11

When quantifying the uncertainty of the response of a computationally costly oceanographic or meteorological model stemming from the uncertainty of its inputs, practicality demands getting the most information using the fewest simulations. It is widely recognized that, by interpolating the results of a small number of simulations, results of additional simulations can be inexpensively approximated to provide a useful estimate of the variability of the response. Even so, as computing the simulations to be interpolated remains the biggest expense, the choice of these simulations deserves attention. When making this choice, two requirement should be considered: (i) the nature of the interpolation and ii) the available information about input uncertainty. Examples comparing polynomial interpolation and Gaussian process interpolation are presented for three different views of input uncertainty.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon C.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Sallaberry, Cédric J.

2012-01-01

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use, (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes, and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRC’s regulations for the YM repository. - Highlights: ► An overview of performance assessment for the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository is presented. ► Conceptual structure and computational organization are described. ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques are described. ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for physical processes are presented. ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for expected dose are presented.

Effect of activation cross-section uncertainties in selecting steels for the HYLIFE-II chamber to successful waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanz, J.; Cabellos, O.; Reyes, S.

2005-01-01

We perform the waste management assessment of the different types of steels proposed as structural material for the inertial fusion energy (IFE) HYLIFE-II concept. Both recycling options, hands-on (HoR) and remote (RR), are unacceptable. Regarding shallow land burial (SLB), 304SS has a very good performance, and both Cr-W ferritic steels (FS) and oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) FS are very likely to be acceptable. The only two impurity elements that question the possibility of obtaining reduced activation (RA) steels for SLB are niobium and molybdenum. The effect of activation cross-section uncertainties on SLB assessments is proved to be important. The necessary improvement of some tungsten and niobium cross-sections is justified

Model uncertainty in safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

1996-01-01

The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

Model uncertainty in safety assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

1996-01-01

The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

The "Pseudocommando" mass murderer: part II, the language of revenge.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoll, James L

2010-01-01

In Part I of this article, research on pseudocommandos was reviewed, and the important role that revenge fantasies play in motivating such persons to commit mass murder-suicide was discussed. Before carrying out their mass shootings, pseudocommandos may communicate some final message to the public or news media. These communications are rich sources of data about their motives and psychopathology. In Part II of this article, forensic psycholinguistic analysis is applied to clarify the primary motivations, detect the presence of mental illness, and discern important individual differences in the final communications of two recent pseudocommandos: Seung-Hui Cho (Virginia Tech) and Jiverly Wong (Binghamton, NY). Although both men committed offenses that qualify them as pseudocommandos, their final communications reveal striking differences in their psychopathology.

Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Díez, C.J., E-mail: cj.diez@upm.es [Dpto. de Ingeníera Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Cabellos, O. [Dpto. de Ingeníera Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fusión Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Martínez, J.S. [Dpto. de Ingeníera Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain)

2015-01-15

Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties.

Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Díez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martínez, J.S.

2015-01-01

Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties

Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

Science.gov (United States)

Díez, C. J.; Cabellos, O.; Martínez, J. S.

2015-01-01

Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties.

CE and nanomaterials - Part II: Nanomaterials in CE.

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, Vojtech; Vaculovicova, Marketa

2017-10-01

The scope of this two-part review is to summarize publications dealing with CE and nanomaterials together. This topic can be viewed from two broad perspectives, and this article is trying to highlight these two approaches: (i) CE of nanomaterials, and (ii) nanomaterials in CE. The second part aims at summarization of publications dealing with application of nanomaterials for enhancement of CE performance either in terms of increasing the separation resolution or for improvement of the detection. To increase the resolution, nanomaterials are employed as either surface modification of the capillary wall forming open tubular column or as additives to the separation electrolyte resulting in a pseudostationary phase. Moreover, nanomaterials have proven to be very beneficial for increasing also the sensitivity of detection employed in CE or even they enable the detection (e.g., fluorescent tags of nonfluorescent molecules). © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langton, S.E.; Buijs, A.; Pencer, J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling sensitivity. • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. • Isotopes of Zr make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. - Abstract: Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium

40 CFR Appendix III to Part 266 - Tier II Emission Rate Screening Limits for Free Chlorine and Hydrogen Chloride

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Tier II Emission Rate Screening Limits for Free Chlorine and Hydrogen Chloride III Appendix III to Part 266 Protection of Environment... to Part 266—Tier II Emission Rate Screening Limits for Free Chlorine and Hydrogen Chloride Terrain...

Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.H.

1997-01-01

An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

LISA package user guide. Part II: LISA (Long Term Isolation Safety Assessment) program description and user guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prado, P.; Saltelli, A.; Homma, T.

1992-01-01

This manual is subdivided into three parts. In this second part, this document describes the LISA (Long term Isolation Safety Assessment) Code and its submodels. LISA is a tool for analysis of the safety of an underground disposal of nuclear waste. It has the capability to handle nuclide chain of arbitrary length and to evaluate the migration of nuclide through a geosphere medium composed of an arbitrary number of segments. LISA makes use of Monte Carlo methodology to evaluate the uncertainty in the quantity being assessed (eg dose) arising from the uncertainty in the model input parameters. In the present version LISA is equipped with a very simple source term submodel, a relatively complex geosphere and a simplified biosphere. The code is closely associated with its statistical pre-processor code (PREP), which generates the input Monte Carlo sample from the assigned parameter probability density functions and with its post-processor code (SPOP) which provides useful statistics on the output sample (uncertainty and sensitivity analysis). This report describes the general structure of LISA, its subroutines and submodels, the code input ant output files. It is intended to provide the user with enough information to know and run the code as well as the capacity to incorporate different submodels. 15 refs., 6 figs

Communicating uncertainty media coverage of new and controversial science

CERN Document Server

Dunwoody, Sharon; Rogers, Carol L

1997-01-01

This work, by the editors of "Scientists and Journalists: Reporting Science as News", explores scientific uncertainty and media coverage of it in such major public issues as AISA, biotechnology, dioxin, global warming, and nature vs. nurture. It examines the interrelations of the major actors in constructing and explaining uncertainty: scientists, journalists, scholars, and the larger public. Part 1 examines participants in the scientific uncertainty arena and how the major actors react to, cope with and manage uncertain issues. It also describes how scientists and journalists vie for control over uncertain science. The panel discussion at the end of this section is a spirited discourse on how they handle scientific uncertainty. Part 2 explores instances of scientific uncertainty in the public arena, highlighting studies involving uncertainty and biotechnology, dioxin, human resources for science, and human behaviour. The panel discussion concluding this section reacts to several of these specific issues and ...

The year 2013 in the European Heart Journal--Cardiovascular Imaging: Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Plein, Sven; Edvardsen, Thor; Pierard, Luc A; Saraste, Antti; Knuuti, Juhani; Maurer, Gerald; Lancellotti, Patrizio

2014-08-01

The new multi-modality cardiovascular imaging journal, European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging, was created in 2012. Here we summarize the most important studies from the journal's second year in two articles. Part I of the review has summarized studies in myocardial function, myocardial ischaemia, and emerging techniques in cardiovascular imaging. Part II is focussed on valvular heart diseases, heart failure, cardiomyopathies, and congenital heart diseases. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Subseabed disposal program annual report, January-December 1979. Volume II. Appendices (principal investigator progress reports). Part 1 of 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talbert, D.M.

1981-04-01

Volume II of the sixth annual report describing the progress and evaluating the status of the Subseabed Disposal Program contains the appendices referred to in Volume I, Summary and Status. Because of the length of Volume II, it has been split into two parts for publication purposes. Part 1 contains Appendices A-O; Part 2 contains Appendices P-FF. Separate abstracts have been prepared of each Appendix for inclusion in the Energy Data Base

Influence of resonance parameters' correlations on the resonance integral uncertainty; 55Mn case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zerovnik, Gasper; Trkov, Andrej; Capote, Roberto; Rochman, Dimitri

2011-01-01

For nuclides with a large number of resonances the covariance matrix of resonance parameters can become very large and expensive to process in terms of the computation time. By converting covariance matrix of resonance parameters into covariance matrices of background cross-section in a more or less coarse group structure a considerable amount of computer time and memory can be saved. The question is how important is the information that is discarded in the process. First, the uncertainty of the 55 Mn resonance integral was estimated in narrow resonance approximation for different levels of self-shielding using Bondarenko method by random sampling of resonance parameters according to their covariance matrices from two different 55 Mn evaluations: one from Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG (with large uncertainties but no correlations between resonances), the other from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (with smaller uncertainties but full covariance matrix). We have found out that if all (or at least significant part of the) resonance parameters are correlated, the resonance integral uncertainty greatly depends on the level of self-shielding. Second, it was shown that the commonly used 640-group SAND-II representation cannot describe the increase of the resonance integral uncertainty. A much finer energy mesh for the background covariance matrix would have to be used to take the resonance structure into account explicitly, but then the objective of a more compact data representation is lost.

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Rehman, Mobeen Ur

2018-05-01

Oil price fluctuations have influential role in global economic policies for developed as well as emerging countries. I investigate the role of international oil prices disintegrated into structural (i) oil supply shock, (ii) aggregate demand shock and (iii) oil market specific demand shocks, based on the work of Kilian (2009) using structural VAR framework on economic policies uncertainty of sampled markets. Economic policy uncertainty, due to its non-linear behavior is modeled in a regime switching framework with disintegrated structural oil shocks. Our results highlight that Indian, Spain and Japanese economic policy uncertainty responds to the global oil price shocks, however aggregate demand shocks fail to induce any change. Oil specific demand shocks are significant only for China and India in high volatility state.

Bloqueio do nervo supraescapular: procedimento importante na prática clínica. Parte II Suprascapular nerve block: important procedure in clinical practice. Part II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Rassi Fernandes

2012-08-01

Full Text Available O bloqueio do nervo supraescapular é um método de tratamento reprodutível, confiável e extremamente efetivo no controle da dor no ombro. Esse método tem sido amplamente utilizado por profissionais na prática clínica, como reumatologistas, ortopedistas, neurologistas e especialistas em dor, na terapêutica de enfermidades crônicas, como lesão irreparável do manguito rotador, artrite reumatoide, sequelas de AVC e capsulite adesiva, o que justifica a presente revisão (Parte II. O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever as técnicas do procedimento e suas complicações descritas na literatura, já que a primeira parte reportou as indicações clínicas, drogas e volumes utilizados em aplicação única ou múltipla. Apresentamse, detalhadamente, os acessos para a realização do procedimento tanto direto como indireto, anterior e posterior, lateral e medial, e superior e inferior. Diversas são as opções para se realizar o bloqueio do nervo supraescapular. Apesar de raras, as complicações podem ocorrer. Quando bem indicado, este método deve ser considerado.The suprascapular nerve block is a reproducible, reliable, and extremely effective treatment method in shoulder pain control. This method has been widely used by professionals in clinical practice such as rheumatologists, orthopedists, neurologists, and pain specialists in the treatment of chronic diseases such as irreparable rotator cuff injury, rheumatoid arthritis, stroke sequelae, and adhesive capsulitis, which justifies the present review (Part II. The objective of this study was to describe the techniques and complications of the procedure described in the literature, as the first part reported the clinical indications, drugs, and volumes used in single or multiple procedures. We present in details the accesses used in the procedure: direct and indirect, anterior and posterior, lateral and medial, upper and lower. There are several options to perform suprascapular nerve block

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1: A review of the issues

Science.gov (United States)

Beven, K. J.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bates, P. D.; Borgomeo, E.; Goda, K.; Hall, J. W.; Page, T.; Phillips, J. C.; Rougier, J. T.; Simpson, M.; Stephenson, D. B.; Smith, P. J.; Wagener, T.; Watson, M.

2015-12-01

Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. There is a lack of knowledge about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions that are made for risk management, so it is important to communicate the meaning of an uncertainty estimate and to provide an audit trail of the assumptions on which it is based. Some suggestions for good practice in doing so are made.

Reliability of a new biokinetic model of zirconium in internal dosimetry: part II, parameter sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei Bo; Greiter, Matthias; Oeh, Uwe; Hoeschen, Christoph

2011-12-01

The reliability of biokinetic models is essential for the assessment of internal doses and a radiation risk analysis for the public and occupational workers exposed to radionuclides. In the present study, a method for assessing the reliability of biokinetic models by means of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was developed. In the first part of the paper, the parameter uncertainty was analyzed for two biokinetic models of zirconium (Zr); one was reported by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), and one was developed at the Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU). In the second part of the paper, the parameter uncertainties and distributions of the Zr biokinetic models evaluated in Part I are used as the model inputs for identifying the most influential parameters in the models. Furthermore, the most influential model parameter on the integral of the radioactivity of Zr over 50 y in source organs after ingestion was identified. The results of the systemic HMGU Zr model showed that over the first 10 d, the parameters of transfer rates between blood and other soft tissues have the largest influence on the content of Zr in the blood and the daily urinary excretion; however, after day 1,000, the transfer rate from bone to blood becomes dominant. For the retention in bone, the transfer rate from blood to bone surfaces has the most influence out to the endpoint of the simulation; the transfer rate from blood to the upper larger intestine contributes a lot in the later days; i.e., after day 300. The alimentary tract absorption factor (fA) influences mostly the integral of radioactivity of Zr in most source organs after ingestion.

Alignment of the NPL Mark II watt balance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, I A

2012-01-01

To reach uncertainties in the region of 1 part in 10 8 a moving-coil watt balance not only requires the accurate measurement of voltage, resistance, velocity, mass and the acceleration due to gravity but, in addition, requires the apparatus to be adjusted correctly to minimize the second order effects which can reduce the accuracy of the measurement. This paper collects together the alignment and correction techniques that have been developed at NPL over many years and are required to minimize the uncertainty of the measurement. Some of these techniques are applicable to all watt balances, whilst a few are specific to watt balances that employ a conventional beam balance to support a circular coil in a radial magnetic field, such as the NPL Mark II watt balance, now known as the NRC watt balance. (paper)

Three Mile Island: a report to the commissioners and to the public. Volume II, Part 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

This is the third and final part of the second volume of a study of the Three Mile Island accident. Part 3 of Volume II contains descriptions and assessments of responses to the accident by the utility and by the NRC and other government agencies

Uncertainty estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships: A regional analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mélèse, Victor; Blanchet, Juliette; Molinié, Gilles

2018-03-01

We propose in this article a regional study of uncertainties in IDF curves derived from point-rainfall maxima. We develop two generalized extreme value models based on the simple scaling assumption, first in the frequentist framework and second in the Bayesian framework. Within the frequentist framework, uncertainties are obtained i) from the Gaussian density stemming from the asymptotic normality theorem of the maximum likelihood and ii) with a bootstrap procedure. Within the Bayesian framework, uncertainties are obtained from the posterior densities. We confront these two frameworks on the same database covering a large region of 100, 000 km2 in southern France with contrasted rainfall regime, in order to be able to draw conclusion that are not specific to the data. The two frameworks are applied to 405 hourly stations with data back to the 1980's, accumulated in the range 3 h-120 h. We show that i) the Bayesian framework is more robust than the frequentist one to the starting point of the estimation procedure, ii) the posterior and the bootstrap densities are able to better adjust uncertainty estimation to the data than the Gaussian density, and iii) the bootstrap density give unreasonable confidence intervals, in particular for return levels associated to large return period. Therefore our recommendation goes towards the use of the Bayesian framework to compute uncertainty.

Scientific uncertainty in media content: Introduction to this special issue.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Hans Peter; Dunwoody, Sharon

2016-11-01

This introduction sets the stage for the special issue on the public communication of scientific uncertainty that follows by sketching the wider landscape of issues related to the communication of uncertainty and showing how the individual contributions fit into that landscape. The first part of the introduction discusses the creation of media content as a process involving journalists, scientific sources, stakeholders, and the responsive audience. The second part then provides an overview of the perception of scientific uncertainty presented by the media and the consequences for the recipients' own assessments of uncertainty. Finally, we briefly describe the six research articles included in this special issue. © The Author(s) 2016.

Numerical Simulation of Projectile Impact on Mild Steel Armour Platesusing LS-DYNA, Part II: Parametric Studies

OpenAIRE

M. Raguraman; A. Deb; N. K. Gupta; D. K. Kharat

2008-01-01

In Part I of the current two-part series, a comprehensive simulation-based study of impact of jacketed projectiles on mild steel armour plates has been presented. Using the modelling procedures developed in Part I, a number of parametric studies have been carried out for the same mild steel plates considered in Part I and reported here in Part II. The current investigation includes determination of ballistic limits of a given target plate for different projectile diameters and impact velociti...

PIC Simulations in Low Energy Part of PIP-II Proton Linac

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romanov, Gennady

2014-07-01

The front end of PIP-II linac is composed of a 30 keV ion source, low energy beam transport line (LEBT), 2.1 MeV radio frequency quadrupole (RFQ), and medium energy beam transport line (MEBT). This configuration is currently being assembled at Fermilab to support a complete systems test. The front end represents the primary technical risk with PIP-II, and so this step will validate the concept and demonstrate that the hardware can meet the specified requirements. SC accelerating cavities right after MEBT require high quality and well defined beam after RFQ to avoid excessive particle losses. In this paper we will present recent progress of beam dynamic study, using CST PIC simulation code, to investigate partial neutralization effect in LEBT, halo and tail formation in RFQ, total emittance growth and beam losses along low energy part of the linac.

Compilation of information on uncertainties involved in deposition modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewellen, W.S.; Varma, A.K.; Sheng, Y.P.

1985-04-01

The current generation of dispersion models contains very simple parameterizations of deposition processes. The analysis here looks at the physical mechanisms governing these processes in an attempt to see if more valid parameterizations are available and what level of uncertainty is involved in either these simple parameterizations or any more advanced parameterization. The report is composed of three parts. The first, on dry deposition model sensitivity, provides an estimate of the uncertainty existing in current estimates of the deposition velocity due to uncertainties in independent variables such as meteorological stability, particle size, surface chemical reactivity and canopy structure. The range of uncertainty estimated for an appropriate dry deposition velocity for a plume generated by a nuclear power plant accident is three orders of magnitude. The second part discusses the uncertainties involved in precipitation scavenging rates for effluents resulting from a nuclear reactor accident. The conclusion is that major uncertainties are involved both as a result of the natural variability of the atmospheric precipitation process and due to our incomplete understanding of the underlying process. The third part involves a review of the important problems associated with modeling the interaction between the atmosphere and a forest. It gives an indication of the magnitude of the problem involved in modeling dry deposition in such environments. Separate analytics have been done for each section and are contained in the EDB

Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

1991-01-01

The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close relationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in inference can be obtained by means of the so-called statistical distance between probability distributions. When applied to quantum mechanics, this distance leads to a measure of the distinguishability of quantum states, which essentially is the absolute value of the matrix element between the states. The importance of this result to the quantum mechanical uncertainty principle is noted. The second part of the paper provides a derivation of the statistical distance on the basis of the so-called method of support

A thermoelectric power generating heat exchanger: Part II – Numerical modeling and optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sarhadi, Ali; Bjørk, Rasmus; Lindeburg, N.

2016-01-01

In Part I of this study, the performance of an experimental integrated thermoelectric generator (TEG)-heat exchanger was presented. In the current study, Part II, the obtained experimental results are compared with those predicted by a finite element (FE) model. In the simulation of the integrated...... TEG-heat exchanger, the thermal contact resistance between the TEG and the heat exchanger is modeled assuming either an ideal thermal contact or using a combined Cooper–Mikic–Yovanovich (CMY) and parallel plate gap formulation, which takes into account the contact pressure, roughness and hardness...

The uncertainty in physical measurements an introduction to data analysis in the physics laboratory

CERN Document Server

Fornasini, Paolo

2008-01-01

All measurements of physical quantities are affected by uncertainty. Understanding the origin of uncertainty, evaluating its extent and suitably taking it into account in data analysis is essential for assessing the degree of accuracy of phenomenological relationships and physical laws in both scientific research and technological applications. The Uncertainty in Physical Measurements: An Introduction to Data Analysis in the Physics Laboratory presents an introduction to uncertainty and to some of the most common procedures of data analysis. This book will serve the reader well by filling the gap between tutorial textbooks and highly specialized monographs. The book is divided into three parts. The first part is a phenomenological introduction to measurement and uncertainty: properties of instruments, different causes and corresponding expressions of uncertainty, histograms and distributions, and unified expression of uncertainty. The second part contains an introduction to probability theory, random variable...

Understanding Medicines: Conceptual Analysis of Nurses' Needs for Knowledge and Understanding of Pharmacology (Part I). Understanding Medicines: Extending Pharmacology Education for Dependent and Independent Prescribing (Part II).

Science.gov (United States)

Leathard, Helen L.

2001-01-01

Part I reviews what nurses need to know about the administration and prescription of medicines. Part II addresses drug classifications, actions and effects, and interactions. Also discussed are the challenges pharmacological issues pose for nursing education. (SK)

Uncertainty in biodiversity science, policy and management: a conceptual overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yrjö Haila

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The protection of biodiversity is a complex societal, political and ultimately practical imperative of current global society. The imperative builds upon scientific knowledge on human dependence on the life-support systems of the Earth. This paper aims at introducing main types of uncertainty inherent in biodiversity science, policy and management, as an introduction to a companion paper summarizing practical experiences of scientists and scholars (Haila et al. 2014. Uncertainty is a cluster concept: the actual nature of uncertainty is inherently context-bound. We use semantic space as a conceptual device to identify key dimensions of uncertainty in the context of biodiversity protection; these relate to [i] data; [ii] proxies; [iii] concepts; [iv] policy and management; and [v] normative goals. Semantic space offers an analytic perspective for drawing critical distinctions between types of uncertainty, identifying fruitful resonances that help to cope with the uncertainties, and building up collaboration between different specialists to support mutual social learning.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Some target assay uncertainties for passive neutron coincidence counting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ensslin, N.; Langner, D.G.; Menlove, H.O.; Miller, M.C.; Russo, P.A.

1990-01-01

This paper provides some target assay uncertainties for passive neutron coincidence counting of plutonium metal, oxide, mixed oxide, and scrap and waste. The target values are based in part on past user experience and in part on the estimated results from new coincidence counting techniques that are under development. The paper summarizes assay error sources and the new coincidence techniques, and recommends the technique that is likely to yield the lowest assay uncertainty for a given material type. These target assay uncertainties are intended to be useful for NDA instrument selection and assay variance propagation studies for both new and existing facilities. 14 refs., 3 tabs

Solution weighting for the SAND-II Monte Carlo code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oster, C.A.; McElroy, W.N.; Simons, R.L.; Lippincott, E.P.; Odette, G.R.

1976-01-01

Modifications to the SAND-II Error Analysis Monte Carlo code to include solution weighting based on input data uncertainties have been made and are discussed together with background information on the SAND-II algorithm. The new procedure permits input data having smaller uncertainties to have a greater influence on the solution spectrum than do the data having larger uncertainties. The results of an indepth study to find a practical procedure and the first results of its application to three important Interlaboratory LMFBR Reaction Rate (ILRR) program benchmark spectra (CFRMF, ΣΣ, and 235 U fission) are discussed

IAEA CRP on HTGR Uncertainties in Modeling: Assessment of Phase I Lattice to Core Model Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rouxelin, Pascal Nicolas [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Strydom, Gerhard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

Best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis of reactors is replacing the traditional conservative (stacked uncertainty) method for safety and licensing analysis. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications, a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied. High temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) have several features that require techniques not used in light-water reactor analysis (e.g., coated-particle design and large graphite quantities at high temperatures). The International Atomic Energy Agency has therefore launched the Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling to study uncertainty propagation in the HTGR analysis chain. The benchmark problem defined for the prismatic design is represented by the General Atomics Modular HTGR 350. The main focus of this report is the compilation and discussion of the results obtained for various permutations of Exercise I 2c and the use of the cross section data in Exercise II 1a of the prismatic benchmark, which is defined as the last and first steps of the lattice and core simulation phases, respectively. The report summarizes the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) best estimate results obtained for Exercise I 2a (fresh single-fuel block), Exercise I 2b (depleted single-fuel block), and Exercise I 2c (super cell) in addition to the first results of an investigation into the cross section generation effects for the super-cell problem. The two dimensional deterministic code known as the New ESC based Weighting Transport (NEWT) included in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) 6.1.2 package was used for the cross section evaluation, and the results obtained were compared to the three dimensional stochastic SCALE module KENO VI. The NEWT cross section libraries were generated for several permutations of the current benchmark super-cell geometry and were then provided as input to the Phase II core calculation of the stand alone neutronics Exercise

Uncertainty estimates for theoretical atomic and molecular data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, H-K; Braams, B J; Bartschat, K; Császár, A G; Drake, G W F; Kirchner, T; Kokoouline, V; Tennyson, J

2016-01-01

Sources of uncertainty are reviewed for calculated atomic and molecular data that are important for plasma modeling: atomic and molecular structures and cross sections for electron-atom, electron-molecule, and heavy particle collisions. We concentrate on model uncertainties due to approximations to the fundamental many-body quantum mechanical equations and we aim to provide guidelines to estimate uncertainties as a routine part of computations of data for structure and scattering. (topical review)

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 1: Measurement techniques, uncertainties and availability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Hassler

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC and other ozone depleting substance (ODS concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP/World Meteorological Organization (WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument. Archive location information for each data set is also given.

Scope Oriented Thermoeconomic analysis of energy systems. Part II: Formation Structure of Optimality for robust design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piacentino, Antonio; Cardona, Ennio

2010-01-01

This paper represents the Part II of a paper in two parts. In Part I the fundamentals of Scope Oriented Thermoeconomics have been introduced, showing a scarce potential for the cost accounting of existing plants; in this Part II the same concepts are applied to the optimization of a small set of design variables for a vapour compression chiller. The method overcomes the limit of most conventional optimization techniques, which are usually based on hermetic algorithms not enabling the energy analyst to recognize all the margins for improvement. The Scope Oriented Thermoeconomic optimization allows us to disassemble the optimization process, thus recognizing the Formation Structure of Optimality, i.e. the specific influence of any thermodynamic and economic parameter in the path toward the optimal design. Finally, the potential applications of such an in-depth understanding of the inner driving forces of the optimization are discussed in the paper, with a particular focus on the sensitivity analysis to the variation of energy and capital costs and on the actual operation-oriented design.

Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation in Distribution Networks - Part II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deka, Deepjyoti [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Backhaus, Scott N. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-02-13

Limited placement of real-time monitoring devices in the distribution grid, recent trends notwithstanding, has prevented the easy implementation of demand-response and other smart grid applications. Part I of this paper discusses the problem of learning the operational structure of the grid from nodal voltage measurements. In this work (Part II), the learning of the operational radial structure is coupled with the problem of estimating nodal consumption statistics and inferring the line parameters in the grid. Based on a Linear-Coupled(LC) approximation of AC power flows equations, polynomial time algorithms are designed to identify the structure and estimate nodal load characteristics and/or line parameters in the grid using the available nodal voltage measurements. Then the structure learning algorithm is extended to cases with missing data, where available observations are limited to a fraction of the grid nodes. The efficacy of the presented algorithms are demonstrated through simulations on several distribution test cases.

Uncertainty: the Curate's egg in financial economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Pixley, Jocelyn

2014-06-01

Economic theories of uncertainty are unpopular with financial experts. As sociologists, we rightly refuse predictions, but the uncertainties of money are constantly sifted and turned into semi-denial by a financial economics set on somehow beating the future. Picking out 'bits' of the future as 'risk' and 'parts' as 'information' is attractive but socially dangerous, I argue, because money's promises are always uncertain. New studies of uncertainty are reversing sociology's neglect of the unavoidable inability to know the forces that will shape the financial future. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Treatment of measurement uncertainties at the power burst facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, L.C.

1980-01-01

The treatment of measurement uncertainty at the Power Burst Facility provides a means of improving data integrity as well as meeting standard practice reporting requirements. This is accomplished by performing the uncertainty analysis in two parts, test independent uncertainty analysis and test dependent uncertainty analysis. The test independent uncertainty analysis is performed on instrumentation used repeatedly from one test to the next, and does not have to be repeated for each test except for improved or new types of instruments. A test dependent uncertainty analysis is performed on each test based on the test independent uncertainties modified as required by test specifications, experiment fixture design, and historical performance of instruments on similar tests. The methodology for performing uncertainty analysis based on the National Bureau of Standards method is reviewed with examples applied to nuclear instrumentation

Emerging Forms of the Part II of Jonathan Swift's Novel “Gulliver’s Travels”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svitlana Tikhonenko

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of grotesque forms in Jonathan Swift's novel "Gulliver’s Travels" based on the text of part II of the novel "A Voyage to Brobdingnag". On the basis of the selected actual material, displays of the grotesque elements in the semantic field of the work’s text are traced. The grotesque world of the novel is the author's model of mankind, in which J. Swift presents his view not only on the state of the modern system of England, but also on the nature of man in general, reveals the peculiarities of the psychology of human nature, especially human socialization. In part II, the author continues to develop a complex and contradictory picture of human existence in front of the reader, the world of giants appears as an ambivalent system in which the features of an ideal society and ideal ruler, in author’s opinion, with the ugly face of man and society, are marvelously combined.

Numerical simulation of projectile impact on mild steel armour plates using LS-DYNA, Part II: Parametric studies

OpenAIRE

Raguraman, M; Deb, A; Gupta, NK; Kharat, DK

2008-01-01

In Part I of the current two-part series, a comprehensive simulation-based study of impact of Jacketed projectiles on mild steel armour plates has been presented. Using the modelling procedures developed in Part I, a number of parametric studies have been carried out for the same mild steel plates considered in Part I and reported here in Part II. The current investigation includes determination of ballistic limits of a given target plate for different projectile diameters and impact velociti...

When 1+1 can be >2: Uncertainties compound when simulating climate, fisheries and marine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Karen; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Nicol, Simon J.; Hoyle, Simon; Matear, Richard; Arrizabalaga, Haritz

2015-03-01

Multi-disciplinary approaches that combine oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecosystem, fisheries population and socio-economic models are vital tools for modelling whole ecosystems. Interpreting the outputs from such complex models requires an appreciation of the many different types of modelling frameworks being used and their associated limitations and uncertainties. Both users and developers of particular model components will often have little involvement or understanding of other components within such modelling frameworks. Failure to recognise limitations and uncertainties associated with components and how these uncertainties might propagate throughout modelling frameworks can potentially result in poor advice for resource management. Unfortunately, many of the current integrative frameworks do not propagate the uncertainties of their constituent parts. In this review, we outline the major components of a generic whole of ecosystem modelling framework incorporating the external pressures of climate and fishing. We discuss the limitations and uncertainties associated with each component of such a modelling system, along with key research gaps. Major uncertainties in modelling frameworks are broadly categorised into those associated with (i) deficient knowledge in the interactions of climate and ocean dynamics with marine organisms and ecosystems; (ii) lack of observations to assess and advance modelling efforts and (iii) an inability to predict with confidence natural ecosystem variability and longer term changes as a result of external drivers (e.g. greenhouse gases, fishing effort) and the consequences for marine ecosystems. As a result of these uncertainties and intrinsic differences in the structure and parameterisation of models, users are faced with considerable challenges associated with making appropriate choices on which models to use. We suggest research directions required to address these uncertainties, and caution against overconfident predictions

Technical Information on the Carbonation of the EBR-II Reactor, Summary Report Part 1: Laboratory Experiments and Application to EBR-II Secondary Sodium System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steven R. Sherman

2005-04-01

Residual sodium is defined as sodium metal that remains behind in pipes, vessels, and tanks after the bulk sodium metal has been melted and drained from such components. The residual sodium has the same chemical properties as bulk sodium, and differs from bulk sodium only in the thickness of the sodium deposit. Typically, sodium is considered residual when the thickness of the deposit is less than 5-6 cm. This residual sodium must be removed or deactivated when a pipe, vessel, system, or entire reactor is permanently taken out of service, in order to make the component or system safer and/or to comply with decommissioning regulations. As an alternative to the established residual sodium deactivation techniques (steam-and-nitrogen, wet vapor nitrogen, etc.), a technique involving the use of moisture and carbon dioxide has been developed. With this technique, sodium metal is converted into sodium bicarbonate by reacting it with humid carbon dioxide. Hydrogen is emitted as a by-product. This technique was first developed in the laboratory by exposing sodium samples to humidified carbon dioxide under controlled conditions, and then demonstrated on a larger scale by treating residual sodium within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) secondary cooling system, followed by the primary cooling system, respectively. The EBR-II facility is located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in southeastern Idaho, U.S.A. This report is Part 1 of a two-part report. It is divided into three sections. The first section describes the chemistry of carbon dioxide-water-sodium reactions. The second section covers the laboratory experiments that were conducted in order to develop the residual sodium deactivation process. The third section discusses the application of the deactivation process to the treatment of residual sodium within the EBR-II secondary sodium cooling system. Part 2 of the report, under separate cover, describes the application of the technique to residual sodium

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

Science.gov (United States)

Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

1974-09-27

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackay, Edward B.L.; Bahaj, AbuBakr S.; Challenor, Peter G.

2010-01-01

The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield. (author)

Sources of uncertainty in flood inundation maps

Science.gov (United States)

Bales, J.D.; Wagner, C.R.

2009-01-01

Flood inundation maps typically have been used to depict inundated areas for floods having specific exceedance levels. The uncertainty associated with the inundation boundaries is seldom quantified, in part, because all of the sources of uncertainty are not recognized and because data available to quantify uncertainty seldom are available. Sources of uncertainty discussed in this paper include hydrologic data used for hydraulic model development and validation, topographic data, and the hydraulic model. The assumption of steady flow, which typically is made to produce inundation maps, has less of an effect on predicted inundation at lower flows than for higher flows because more time typically is required to inundate areas at high flows than at low flows. Difficulties with establishing reasonable cross sections that do not intersect and that represent water-surface slopes in tributaries contribute additional uncertainties in the hydraulic modelling. As a result, uncertainty in the flood inundation polygons simulated with a one-dimensional model increases with distance from the main channel.

HERBICIDAS INIBIDORES DO FOTOSSISTEMA II – PARTE II / PHOTOSYSTEM II INHIBITOR HERBICIDES - PART

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ILCA P. DE F. E SILVA

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Os herbicidas inibidores do fotossistema II (PSII ligam-se ao sítio da QB localizado na proteína D1 o qual se localiza na membrana dos tilacóides dos cloroplastos, causando, o bloqueia do transporte de elétrons da QA para QB, tendo como consequência, a peroxidação dos lipídios. Os principais fatores que afetam a evolução da resistência de plantas daninhas aos herbicidas têm sido agrupados em: genéticos, bioecológicos e agronômicos. A resistência de plantas daninhas a herbicidas é definida como a habilidade de uma planta sobreviver e reproduzir, após exposição a uma dose de herbicida normalmente letal para um biótipo normal da planta. A seletividade de um herbicida está relacionada à capacidade de eliminar plantas daninhas sem interferir na qualidade da planta de interesse econômico.

Balancing certainty and uncertainty in clinical medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayward, Richard

2006-01-01

Nothing in clinical medicine is one hundred per cent certain. Part of a doctor's education involves learning how to cope with the anxiety that uncertainty in decisions affecting life and death inevitably produces. This paper examines: (1) the role of anxiety -- both rational and irrational -- in the provision of health care; (2) the effects of uncertainty upon the doctor-patient relationship; (3) the threat uncertainty poses to medical authority (and the assumption of infallibility that props it up); (4) the contribution of clinical uncertainty to the rising popularity of alternative therapies; and (5) the clash between the medical and the legal understanding of how certainty should be defined, particularly as it affects the paediatric community. It concludes by suggesting some strategies that might facilitate successful navigation between the opposing and ever-present forces of certainty and uncertainty.

Polycystic ovary syndrome: a review for dermatologists: Part II. Treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Buzney, Elizabeth; Sheu, Johanna; Buzney, Catherine; Reynolds, Rachel V

2014-11-01

Dermatologists are in a key position to treat the manifestations of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The management of PCOS should be tailored to each woman's specific goals, reproductive interests, and particular constellation of symptoms. Therefore, a multidisciplinary approach is recommended. In part II of this continuing medical education article, we present the available safety and efficacy data regarding treatments for women with acne, hirsutism, and androgenetic alopecia. Therapies discussed include lifestyle modification, topical therapies, combined oral contraceptives, antiandrogen agents, and insulin-sensitizing drugs. Treatment recommendations are made based on the current available evidence. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recovery in soccer : part ii-recovery strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Nédélec, Mathieu; McCall, Alan; Carling, Chris; Legall, Franck; Berthoin, Serge; Dupont, Gregory

2013-01-01

In the formerly published part I of this two-part review, we examined fatigue after soccer matchplay and recovery kinetics of physical performance, and cognitive, subjective and biological markers. To reduce the magnitude of fatigue and to accelerate the time to fully recover after completion, several recovery strategies are now used in professional soccer teams. During congested fixture schedules, recovery strategies are highly required to alleviate post-match fatigue, and then to regain performance faster and reduce the risk of injury. Fatigue following competition is multifactorial and mainly related to dehydration, glycogen depletion, muscle damage and mental fatigue. Recovery strategies should consequently be targeted against the major causes of fatigue. Strategies reviewed in part II of this article were nutritional intake, cold water immersion, sleeping, active recovery, stretching, compression garments, massage and electrical stimulation. Some strategies such as hydration, diet and sleep are effective in their ability to counteract the fatigue mechanisms. Providing milk drinks to players at the end of competition and a meal containing high-glycaemic index carbohydrate and protein within the hour following the match are effective in replenishing substrate stores and optimizing muscle-damage repair. Sleep is an essential part of recovery management. Sleep disturbance after a match is common and can negatively impact on the recovery process. Cold water immersion is effective during acute periods of match congestion in order to regain performance levels faster and repress the acute inflammatory process. Scientific evidence for other strategies reviewed in their ability to accelerate the return to the initial level of performance is still lacking. These include active recovery, stretching, compression garments, massage and electrical stimulation. While this does not mean that these strategies do not aid the recovery process, the protocols implemented up until

Small break LOCA RELAP5/MOD3 uncertainty quantification: Bias and uncertainty evaluation for important phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, M.G.; Ghan, L.S.; Vogl, J.

1991-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) revised the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) licensing rule to allow the use of Best Estimate (BE) computer codes, provided the uncertainty of the calculations are quantified and used in the licensing and regulation process. The NRC developed a generic methodology called Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) to evaluate BE code uncertainties. The CSAU methodology was demonstrated with a specific application to a pressurized water reactor (PWR), experiencing a postulated large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA). The current work is part of an effort to adapt and demonstrate the CSAU methodology to a small break (SB) LOCA in a PWR of B and W design using RELAP5/MOD3 as the simulation tool. The subject of this paper is the Assessment and Ranging of Parameters (Element 2 of the CSAU methodology), which determines the contribution to uncertainty of specific models in the code

On treatment of uncertainty in system planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flage, R.; Aven, T.

2009-01-01

In system planning and operation considerable efforts and resources are spent to reduce uncertainties, as a part of project management, uncertainty management and safety management. The basic idea seems to be that uncertainties are purely negative and should be reduced. In this paper we challenge this way of thinking, using a common industry practice as an example. In accordance with this industry practice, three uncertainty interval categories are used: ±40% intervals for the feasibility phase, ±30% intervals for the concept development phase and ±20% intervals for the engineering phase. The problem is that such a regime could easily lead to a conservative management regime encouraging the use of existing methods and tools, as new activities and novel solutions and arrangements necessarily mean increased uncertainties. In the paper we suggest an alternative approach based on uncertainty and risk descriptions, but having no predefined uncertainty reduction structures. The approach makes use of risk assessments and economic optimisation tools such as the expected net present value, but acknowledges the need for broad risk management processes which extend beyond the analyses. Different concerns need to be balanced, including economic aspects, uncertainties and risk, and practicability

Uncertainties in the Norwegian greenhouse gas emission inventory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flugsrud, Ketil; Hoem, Britta

2011-11-15

The national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory is compiled from estimates based on emission factors and activity data and from direct measurements by plants. All these data and parameters will contribute to the overall inventory uncertainty. The uncertainties and probability distributions of the inventory input parameters have been assessed based on available data and expert judgements.Finally, the level and trend uncertainties of the national GHG emission inventory have been estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methods used in the analysis correspond to an IPCC tier 2 method, as described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC 2000) (IPCC 2000). Analyses have been made both excluding and including the sector LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry). The uncertainty analysis performed in 2011 is an update of the uncertainty analyses performed for the greenhouse gas inventory in 2006 and 2000. During the project we have been in contact with experts, and have collected information about uncertainty from them. Main focus has been on the source categories where changes have occured since the last uncertainty analysis was performed in 2006. This includes new methodology for several source categories (for example for solvents and road traffic) as well as revised uncertainty estimates. For the installations included in the emission trading system, new information from the annual ETS reports about uncertainty in activity data and CO2 emission factor (and N2O emission factor for nitric acid production) has been used. This has improved the quality of the uncertainty estimates for the energy and manufacturing sectors. The results show that the uncertainty level in the total calculated greenhouse gas emissions for 2009 is around 4 per cent. When including the LULUCF sector, the total uncertainty is around 17 per cent in 2009. The uncertainty estimate is lower now than previous analyses have shown. This is partly due to a considerable work made to improve

Ocean Thermal Energy Converstion (OTEC) test facilities study program. Final report. Volume II. Part B

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1977-01-17

Results are presented of an 8-month study to develop alternative non-site-specific OTEC facilities/platform requirements for an integrated OTEC test program which may include land and floating test facilities. Volume II--Appendixes is bound in three parts (A, B, and C) which together comprise a compendium of the most significant detailed data developed during the study. Part B provides an annotated test list and describes component tests and system tests.

A Carbon Monitoring System Approach to US Coastal Wetland Carbon Fluxes: Progress Towards a Tier II Accounting Method with Uncertainty Quantification

Science.gov (United States)

Windham-Myers, L.; Holmquist, J. R.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Byrd, K. B.; Callaway, J.; Crooks, S.; Drexler, J. Z.; Feagin, R. A.; Ferner, M. C.; Gonneea, M. E.; Kroeger, K. D.; Megonigal, P.; Morris, J. T.; Schile, L. M.; Simard, M.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Takekawa, J.; Troxler, T.; Weller, D.; Woo, I.

2015-12-01

Despite their high rates of long-term carbon (C) sequestration when compared to upland ecosystems, coastal C accounting is only recently receiving the attention of policy makers and carbon markets. Assessing accuracy and uncertainty in net C flux estimates requires both direct and derived measurements based on both short and long term dynamics in key drivers, particularly soil accretion rates and soil organic content. We are testing the ability of remote sensing products and national scale datasets to estimate biomass and soil stocks and fluxes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, the 2013 Wetlands Supplement to the 2006 IPCC GHG national inventory reporting guidelines requests information on development of Tier I-III reporting, which express increasing levels of detail. We report progress toward development of a Carbon Monitoring System for "blue carbon" that may be useful for IPCC reporting guidelines at Tier II levels. Our project uses a current dataset of publically available and contributed field-based measurements to validate models of changing soil C stocks, across a broad range of U.S. tidal wetland types and landuse conversions. Additionally, development of biomass algorithms for both radar and spectral datasets will be tested and used to determine the "price of precision" of different satellite products. We discuss progress in calculating Tier II estimates focusing on variation introduced by the different input datasets. These include the USFWS National Wetlands Inventory, NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, and combinations to calculate tidal wetland area. We also assess the use of different attributes and depths from the USDA-SSURGO database to map soil C density. Finally, we examine the relative benefit of radar, spectral and hybrid approaches to biomass mapping in tidal marshes and mangroves. While the US currently plans to report GHG emissions at a Tier I level, we argue that a Tier II analysis is possible due to national

Not-for-profit versus for-profit health care providers--Part II: Comparing and contrasting their records.

Science.gov (United States)

Rotarius, Timothy; Trujillo, Antonio J; Liberman, Aaron; Ramirez, Bernardo

2006-01-01

The debate over which health care providers are most capably meeting their responsibilities in serving the public's interest continues unabated, and the comparisons of not-for-profit (NFP) versus for-profit (FP) hospitals remain at the epicenter of the discussion. From the perspective of available factual information, which of the two sides to this debate is correct? This article is part II of a 2-part series on comparing and contrasting the performance records of NFP health care providers with their FP counterparts. Although it is demonstrated that both NFP and FP providers perform virtuous and selfless feats on behalf of America's public, it is also shown that both camps have been accused of being involved in potentially willful clinical and administrative missteps. Part I provided the background information (eg, legal differences, perspectives on social responsibility, and types of questionable and fraudulent behavior) required to adequately understand the scope of the comparison issue. Part II offers actual comparisons of the 2 organizational structures using several disparate factors such as specific organizational behaviors, approach to the health care priorities of cost and quality, and business-focused goals of profits, efficiency, and community benefit.

Optimization Under Uncertainty of Site-Specific Turbine Configurations

Science.gov (United States)

Quick, J.; Dykes, K.; Graf, P.; Zahle, F.

2016-09-01

Uncertainty affects many aspects of wind energy plant performance and cost. In this study, we explore opportunities for site-specific turbine configuration optimization that accounts for uncertainty in the wind resource. As a demonstration, a simple empirical model for wind plant cost of energy is used in an optimization under uncertainty to examine how different risk appetites affect the optimal selection of a turbine configuration for sites of different wind resource profiles. If there is unusually high uncertainty in the site wind resource, the optimal turbine configuration diverges from the deterministic case and a generally more conservative design is obtained with increasing risk aversion on the part of the designer.

Emission factors of air pollutants from CNG-gasoline bi-fuel vehicles: Part II. CO, HC and NOx.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xiaoyan; Wang, Yang; Xing, Zhenyu; Du, Ke

2016-09-15

The estimation of emission factors (EFs) is the basis of accurate emission inventory. However, the EFs of air pollutants for motor vehicles vary under different operating conditions, which will cause uncertainty in developing emission inventory. Natural gas (NG), considered as a "cleaner" fuel than gasoline, is increasingly being used to reduce combustion emissions. However, information is scarce about how much emission reduction can be achieved by motor vehicles burning NG (NGVs) under real road driving conditions, which is necessary for evaluating the environmental benefits for NGVs. Here, online, in situ measurements of the emissions from nine bi-fuel vehicles were conducted under different operating conditions on the real road. A comparative study was performed for the EFs of black carbon (BC), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for each operating condition when the vehicles using gasoline and compressed NG (CNG) as fuel. BC EFs were reported in part I. The part II in this paper series reports the influence of operating conditions and fuel types on the EFs of CO, HC and NOx. Fuel-based EFs of CO showed good correlations with speed when burning CNG and gasoline. The correlation between fuel-based HC EFs and speed was relatively weak whether burning CNG or gasoline. The fuel-based NOx EFs moderately correlated with speed when burning CNG, but weakly correlated with gasoline. As for HC, the mileage-based EFs of gasoline vehicles are 2.39-12.59 times higher than those of CNG vehicles. The mileage-based NOx EFs of CNG vehicles are slightly higher than those of gasoline vehicles. These results would facilitate a detailed analysis of the environmental benefits for replacing gasoline with CNG in light duty vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pilch, Martin, E-mail: mpilch@sandia.gov [Department 1514, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0828 (United States); Trucano, Timothy G. [Department 1411, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0370 (United States); Helton, Jon C. [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1804 (United States)

2011-09-15

Key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions are described. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, the following topics are discussed: (i) the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, (ii) the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and (iii) the properties of risk-informed decision making (RIDM) that are best suited for effective application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides an extensive bibliography of useful papers for interested readers to deepen their understanding of the presented ideas.

Eleventh annual meeting, Bologna, Italy, 17-20 April 1978. Summary report. Part II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1978-07-01

The Summary Report - Part II of the Eleventh Annual Meeting of the IAEA International Working Group on Fast Reactors - includes reports on development of fast reactors in France from 1977 to 1978; review of the activities related to fast reactors in Germany; status of fast breeder reactors development in Belgium and Netherlands; status of activities related to fast reactors in USSR, Japan USA, UK and Italy.

Eleventh annual meeting, Bologna, Italy, 17-20 April 1978. Summary report. Part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-07-01

The Summary Report - Part II of the Eleventh Annual Meeting of the IAEA International Working Group on Fast Reactors - includes reports on development of fast reactors in France from 1977 to 1978; review of the activities related to fast reactors in Germany; status of fast breeder reactors development in Belgium and Netherlands; status of activities related to fast reactors in USSR, Japan USA, UK and Italy

A legacy of struggle: the OSHA ergonomics standard and beyond, Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Delp, Linda; Mojtahedi, Zahra; Sheikh, Hina; Lemus, Jackie

2014-11-01

The OSHA ergonomics standard issued in 2000 was repealed within four months through a Congressional resolution that limits future ergonomics rulemaking. This section continues the conversation initiated in Part I, documenting a legacy of struggle for an ergonomics standard through the voices of eight labor, academic, and government key informants. Part I summarized important components of the standard; described the convergence of labor activism, research, and government action that laid the foundation for a standard; and highlighted the debates that characterized the rulemaking process. Part II explores the anti-regulatory political landscape of the 1990s, as well as the key opponents, power dynamics, and legal maneuvers that led to repeal of the standard. This section also describes the impact of the ergonomics struggle beyond the standard itself and ends with a discussion of creative state-level policy initiatives and coalition approaches to prevent work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) in today's sociopolitical context.

Accounting for Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty in Early System Design, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project extends Probability Bounds Analysis to model epistemic and aleatory uncertainty during early design of engineered systems in an Integrated Concurrent...

Extensive neutronic sensitivity-uncertainty analysis of a fusion reactor shielding blanket

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogenbirk, A.

1994-01-01

In this paper the results are presented of an extensive neutronic sensitivity-uncertainty study performed for the design of a shielding blanket for a next-step fusion reactor, such as ITER. A code system was used, which was developed at ECN Petten. The uncertainty in an important response parameter, the neutron heating in the inboard superconducting coils, was evaluated. Neutron transport calculations in the 100 neutron group GAM-II structure were performed using the code ANISN. For the sensitivity and uncertainty calculations the code SUSD was used. Uncertainties due to cross-section uncertainties were taken into account as well as uncertainties due to uncertainties in energy and angular distributions of scattered neutrons (SED and SAD uncertainties, respectively). The subject of direct-term uncertainties (i.e. uncertainties due to uncertainties in the kerma factors of the superconducting coils) is briefly touched upon. It is shown that SAD uncertainties, which have been largely neglected until now, contribute significantly to the total uncertainty. Moreover, the contribution of direct-term uncertainties may be large. The total uncertainty in the neutron heating, only due to Fe cross-sections, amounts to approximately 25%, which is rather large. However, uncertainty data are scarce and the data may very well be conservative. It is shown in this paper that with the code system used, sensitivity and uncertainty calculations can be performed in a straightforward way. Therefore, it is suggested that emphasis is now put on the generation of realistic, reliable covariance data for cross-sections as well as for angular and energy distributions. ((orig.))

Title II, Part A: Don't Scrap It, Don't Dilute It, Fix It

Science.gov (United States)

Coggshall, Jane G.

2015-01-01

The Issue: Washington is taking a close look at Title II, Part A (Title IIA) of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) as Congress debates reauthorization. The program sends roughly $2.5 billion a year to all states and nearly all districts to "(1) increase student academic achievement through strategies such as improving teacher…

Instructional Climates in Preschool Children Who Are At-Risk. Part II: Perceived Physical Competence

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Leah E.; Rudisill, Mary E.; Goodway, Jacqueline D.

2009-01-01

In Part II of this study, we examined the effect of two 9-week instructional climates (low-autonomy [LA] and mastery motivational climate [MMC]) on perceived physical competence (PPC) in preschoolers (N = 117). Participants were randomly assigned to an LA, MMC, or comparison group. PPC was assessed by a pretest, posttest, and retention test with…

The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

1994-01-01

All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Engineering Problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bigoni, Daniele

in measurements, predictions and manufacturing, and we can say that any dynamical system used in engineering is subject to some of these uncertainties. The first part of this work presents an overview of the mathematical framework used in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis and introduces the spectral tensor...... and thus the UQ analysis of the associated systems will benefit greatly from the application of methods which require few function evaluations. We first consider the propagation of the uncertainty and the sensitivity analysis of the non-linear dynamics of railway vehicles with suspension components whose......-scale problems, where efficient methods are necessary with today’s computational resources. The outcome of this work was also the creation of several freely available Python modules for Uncertainty Quantification, which are listed and described in the appendix....

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elert, M.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Optimal recombination in genetic algorithms for combinatorial optimization problems: Part II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eremeev Anton V.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper surveys results on complexity of the optimal recombination problem (ORP, which consists in finding the best possible offspring as a result of a recombination operator in a genetic algorithm, given two parent solutions. In Part II, we consider the computational complexity of ORPs arising in genetic algorithms for problems on permutations: the Travelling Salesman Problem, the Shortest Hamilton Path Problem and the Makespan Minimization on Single Machine and some other related problems. The analysis indicates that the corresponding ORPs are NP-hard, but solvable by faster algorithms, compared to the problems they are derived from.

The basic science of dermal fillers: past and present Part II: adverse effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Erin; Hui, Andrea; Meehan, Shane; Waldorf, Heidi A

2012-09-01

The ideal dermal filler should offer long-lasting aesthetic improvement with a minimal side-effect profile. It should be biocompatible and stable within the injection site, with the risk of only transient undesirable effects from injection alone. However, all dermal fillers can induce serious and potentially long-lasting adverse effects. In Part II of this paper, we review the most common adverse effects related to dermal filler use.

Biology and Mechanics of Blood Flows Part II: Mechanics and Medical Aspects

CERN Document Server

Thiriet, Marc

2008-01-01

Biology and Mechanics of Blood Flows presents the basic knowledge and state-of-the-art techniques necessary to carry out investigations of the cardiovascular system using modeling and simulation. Part II of this two-volume sequence, Mechanics and Medical Aspects, refers to the extraction of input data at the macroscopic scale for modeling the cardiovascular system, and complements Part I, which focuses on nanoscopic and microscopic components and processes. This volume contains chapters on anatomy, physiology, continuum mechanics, as well as pathological changes in the vasculature walls including the heart and their treatments. Methods of numerical simulations are given and illustrated in particular by application to wall diseases. This authoritative book will appeal to any biologist, chemist, physicist, or applied mathematician interested in the functioning of the cardiovascular system.

Formulation, computation and improvement of steady state security margins in power systems. Part II: Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Echavarren, F.M.; Lobato, E.; Rouco, L.; Gomez, T.

2011-01-01

A steady state security margin for a particular operating point can be defined as the distance from this initial point to the secure operating limits of the system. Four of the most used steady state security margins are the power flow feasibility margin, the contingency feasibility margin, the load margin to voltage collapse, and the total transfer capability between system areas. This is the second part of a two part paper. Part I has proposed a novel framework of a general model able to formulate, compute and improve any steady state security margin. In Part II the performance of the general model is validated by solving a variety of practical situations in modern real power systems. Actual examples of the Spanish power system will be used for this purpose. The same computation and improvement algorithms outlined in Part I have been applied for the four security margins considered in the study, outlining the convenience of defining a general framework valid for the four of them. The general model is used here in Part II to compute and improve: (a) the power flow feasibility margin (assessing the influence of the reactive power generation limits in the Spanish power system), (b) the contingency feasibility margin (assessing the influence of transmission and generation capacity in maintaining a correct voltage profile), (c) the load margin to voltage collapse (assessing the location and quantity of loads that must be shed in order to be far away from voltage collapse) and (d) the total transfer capability (assessing the export import pattern of electric power between different areas of the Spanish system). (author)

Formulation, computation and improvement of steady state security margins in power systems. Part II: Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Echavarren, F.M.; Lobato, E.; Rouco, L.; Gomez, T. [School of Engineering of Universidad Pontificia Comillas, C/Alberto Aguilera, 23, 28015 Madrid (Spain)

2011-02-15

A steady state security margin for a particular operating point can be defined as the distance from this initial point to the secure operating limits of the system. Four of the most used steady state security margins are the power flow feasibility margin, the contingency feasibility margin, the load margin to voltage collapse, and the total transfer capability between system areas. This is the second part of a two part paper. Part I has proposed a novel framework of a general model able to formulate, compute and improve any steady state security margin. In Part II the performance of the general model is validated by solving a variety of practical situations in modern real power systems. Actual examples of the Spanish power system will be used for this purpose. The same computation and improvement algorithms outlined in Part I have been applied for the four security margins considered in the study, outlining the convenience of defining a general framework valid for the four of them. The general model is used here in Part II to compute and improve: (a) the power flow feasibility margin (assessing the influence of the reactive power generation limits in the Spanish power system), (b) the contingency feasibility margin (assessing the influence of transmission and generation capacity in maintaining a correct voltage profile), (c) the load margin to voltage collapse (assessing the location and quantity of loads that must be shed in order to be far away from voltage collapse) and (d) the total transfer capability (assessing the export import pattern of electric power between different areas of the Spanish system). (author)

[Method for optimal sensor placement in water distribution systems with nodal demand uncertainties].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shu-Ming; Wu, Xue; Ouyang, Le-Yan

2013-08-01

The notion of identification fitness was proposed for optimizing sensor placement in water distribution systems. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II was used to find the Pareto front between minimum overlap of possible detection times of two events and the best probability of detection, taking nodal demand uncertainties into account. This methodology was applied to an example network. The solutions show that the probability of detection and the number of possible locations are not remarkably affected by nodal demand uncertainties, but the sources identification accuracy declines with nodal demand uncertainties.

Challenges for sustainable resource use : Uncertainty, trade and climate policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bretschger, L.; Smulders, Sjak A.

2012-01-01

We integrate new challenges to thinking about resource markets and sustainable resource use policies in a general framework. The challenges, emerging from six papers that JEEM publishes in a special issue, are (i) demand uncertainty and stockpiling, (ii) international trade and resource dependence,

Exploring Water Pollution. Part II

Science.gov (United States)

Rillo, Thomas J.

1975-01-01

This is part two of a three part article related to the science activity of exploring environmental problems. Part one dealt with background information for the classroom teacher. Presented here is a suggested lesson plan on water pollution. Objectives, important concepts and instructional procedures are suggested. (EB)

Part I: $\\beta$-delayed fission, laser spectroscopy and shape-coexistence studies with astatine beams; Part II: Delineating the island of deformation in the light gold isotopes by means of laser spectroscopy

CERN Document Server

Andreyev, Andrei

2013-01-01

Part I: $\\beta$-delayed fission, laser spectroscopy and shape-coexistence studies with astatine beams; Part II: Delineating the island of deformation in the light gold isotopes by means of laser spectroscopy

Final environmental statement. Final addendum to Part II: Manufacture of floating nuclear power plants by Offshore Power Systems. DOCKET-STN--50-437

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-06-01

This Addendum to Part II of the Final Environmental Statement related to manufacture of floating nuclear power plants by Offshore Power Systems (OPS), NUREG-0056, issued September 1976, was prepared by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation. The staff's basic evaluation is presented in NUREG-0056. The current Addendum provides further consideration of a number of topics discussed in NUREG-0056, particularly additional consideration of shore zone siting at estuarine and ocean regions. This Summary and Conclusions recapitulates and is cumulative for Part II of the FES and the current Addendum. Augmentations to the Summary and Conclusions presented in Part II of the FES and arising from the evaluations contained in this Addendum are italicized

Perseveration induces dissociative uncertainty in obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Giele, Catharina L; van den Hout, Marcel A; Engelhard, Iris M; Dek, Eliane C P; Toffolo, Marieke B J; Cath, Danielle C

2016-09-01

Obsessive compulsive (OC)-like perseveration paradoxically increases feelings of uncertainty. We studied whether the underlying mechanism between perseveration and uncertainty is a reduced accessibility of meaning ('semantic satiation'). OCD patients (n = 24) and matched non-clinical controls (n = 24) repeated words 2 (non-perseveration) or 20 times (perseveration). They decided whether this word was related to another target word. Speed of relatedness judgments and feelings of dissociative uncertainty were measured. The effects of real-life perseveration on dissociative uncertainty were tested in a smaller subsample of the OCD group (n = 9). Speed of relatedness judgments was not affected by perseveration. However, both groups reported more dissociative uncertainty after perseveration compared to non-perseveration, which was higher in OCD patients. Patients reported more dissociative uncertainty after 'clinical' perseveration compared to non-perseveration.. Both parts of this study are limited by some methodological issues and a small sample size. Although the mechanism behind 'perseveration → uncertainty' is still unclear, results suggest that the effects of perseveration are counterproductive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of atmospheric dispersion in a complex medium and associated uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demael, Emmanuel

2007-01-01

This research thesis addresses the study of the digital modelling of atmospheric dispersions. It aimed at validating the Mercure-Saturne tool used with a RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) approach within the frame of an impact study or of an accidental scenario on a nuclear site while taking buildings and ground relief into account, at comparing the Mercure-Saturne model with a more simple and less costly (in terms of computation time) Gaussian tool (the ADMS software, Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System), and at quantifying uncertainties related to the use of the Mercure-Saturne model. The first part introduces theoretical elements of atmosphere physics and of the atmospheric dispersion in a boundary layer, presents the Gaussian model and the Mercure-Saturne tool and its associated RANS approach. The second part reports the comparison of the Mercure-Saturne model with conventional Gaussian plume models. The third part reports the study of the atmospheric flow and dispersion about the Bugey nuclear site, based on a study performed in a wind tunnel. The fourth part reports the same kind of study for the Flamanville site. The fifth part reports the use of different approaches for the study of uncertainties in the case of the Bugey site: application of the Morris method (a screening method), and of the Monte Carlo method (quantification of the uncertainty and of the sensitivity of each uncertainty source) [fr

Nuclear fuel technology - Determination of uranium in solutions, uranium hexafluoride and solids - Part 2: Iron(II) reduction/cerium(IV) oxidation titrimetric method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This first edition of ISO 7097-1 together with ISO 7097-2:2004 cancels and replaces ISO 7097:1983, which has been technically revised, and ISO 9989:1996. ISO 7097 consists of the following parts, under the general title Nuclear fuel technology - Determination of uranium in solutions, uranium hexafluoride and solids: Part 1: Iron(II) reduction/potassium dichromate oxidation titrimetric method; Part 2: Iron(II) reduction/cerium(IV) oxidation titrimetric method. This part 2. of ISO 7097 describes procedures for determination of uranium in solutions, uranium hexafluoride and solids. The procedures described in the two independent parts of this International Standard are similar: this part uses a titration with cerium(IV) and ISO 7097-1 uses a titration with potassium dichromate

Nuclear fuel technology - Determination of uranium in solutions, uranium hexafluoride and solids - Part 1: Iron(II) reduction/potassium dichromate oxidation titrimetric method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This first edition of ISO 7097-1 together with ISO 7097-2:2004 cancels and replaces ISO 7097:1983, which has been technically revised, and ISO 9989:1996. ISO 7097 consists of the following parts, under the general title Nuclear fuel technology - Determination of uranium in solutions, uranium hexafluoride and solids: Part 1: Iron(II) reduction/potassium dichromate oxidation titrimetric method; Part 2: Iron(II) reduction/cerium(IV) oxidation titrimetric method. This part 1. of ISO 7097 describes procedures for the determination of uranium in solutions, uranium hexafluoride and solids. The procedures described in the two independent parts of this International Standard are similar: this part uses a titration with potassium dichromate and ISO 7097-2 uses a titration with cerium(IV)

Current antiviral drugs and their analysis in biological materials - Part II: Antivirals against hepatitis and HIV viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Nováková, Lucie; Pavlík, Jakub; Chrenková, Lucia; Martinec, Ondřej; Červený, Lukáš

2018-01-05

This review is a Part II of the series aiming to provide comprehensive overview of currently used antiviral drugs and to show modern approaches to their analysis. While in the Part I antivirals against herpes viruses and antivirals against respiratory viruses were addressed, this part concerns antivirals against hepatitis viruses (B and C) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Many novel antivirals against hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV have been introduced into the clinical practice over the last decade. The recent broadening portfolio of these groups of antivirals is reflected in increasing number of developed analytical methods required to meet the needs of clinical terrain. Part II summarizes the mechanisms of action of antivirals against hepatitis B virus (HBV), HCV, and HIV, their use in clinical practice, and analytical methods for individual classes. It also provides expert opinion on state of art in the field of bioanalysis of these drugs. Analytical methods reflect novelty of these chemical structures and use by far the most current approaches, such as simple and high-throughput sample preparation and fast separation, often by means of UHPLC-MS/MS. Proper method validation based on requirements of bioanalytical guidelines is an inherent part of the developed methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

1988-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale computer models that is analytic (deterministic) in principle and that is firmly based on the model equations. The theory and application of two systems based upon computer calculus, GRESS and ADGEN, are discussed relative to their role in calculating model derivatives and sensitivities without a prohibitive initial manpower investment. Storage and computational requirements for these two systems are compared for a gradient-enhanced version of the PRESTO-II computer model. A Deterministic Uncertainty Analysis (DUA) method that retains the characteristics of analytically computing result uncertainties based upon parameter probability distributions is then introduced and results from recent studies are shown. 29 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Socializing Identity Through Practice: A Mixed Methods Approach to Family Medicine Resident Perspectives on Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ledford, Christy J W; Cafferty, Lauren A; Seehusen, Dean A

2015-01-01

Uncertainty is a central theme in the practice of medicine and particularly primary care. This study explored how family medicine resident physicians react to uncertainty in their practice. This study incorporated a two-phase mixed methods approach, including semi-structured personal interviews (n=21) and longitudinal self-report surveys (n=21) with family medicine residents. Qualitative analysis showed that though residents described uncertainty as an implicit part of their identity, they still developed tactics to minimize or manage uncertainty in their practice. Residents described increasing comfort with uncertainty the longer they practiced and anticipated that growth continuing throughout their careers. Quantitative surveys showed that reactions to uncertainty were more positive over time; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Qualitative and quantitative results show that as family medicine residents practice medicine their perception of uncertainty changes. To reduce uncertainty, residents use relational information-seeking strategies. From a broader view of practice, residents describe uncertainty neutrally, asserting that uncertainty is simply part of the practice of family medicine.

Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Usher, Will; Strachan, Neil

2012-01-01

Over the next decade, large energy investments are required in the UK to meet growing energy service demands and legally binding emission targets under a pioneering policy agenda. These are necessary despite deep mid-term (2025–2030) uncertainties over which national policy makers have little control. We investigate the effect of two critical mid-term uncertainties on optimal near-term investment decisions using a two-stage stochastic energy system model. The results show that where future fossil fuel prices are uncertain: (i) the near term hedging strategy to 2030 differs from any one deterministic fuel price scenario and is structurally dissimilar to a simple ‘average’ of the deterministic scenarios, and (ii) multiple recourse strategies from 2030 are perturbed by path dependencies caused by hedging investments. Evaluating the uncertainty under a decarbonisation agenda shows that fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive at around £20 billion. The addition of novel mitigation options reduces the value of fossil fuel price uncertainty to £11 billion. Uncertain biomass import availability shows a much lower value of uncertainty at £300 million. This paper reveals the complex relationship between the flexibility of the energy system and mitigating the costs of uncertainty due to the path-dependencies caused by the long-life times of both infrastructures and generation technologies. - Highlights: ► Critical mid-term uncertainties affect near-term investments in UK energy system. ► Deterministic scenarios give conflicting near-term actions. ► Stochastic scenarios give one near-term hedging strategy. ► Technologies exhibit path dependency or flexibility. ► Fossil fuel price uncertainty is very expensive, biomass availability uncertainty is not.

Uncertainty evaluation methods for waste package performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Y.T.; Nair, P.K.; Journel, A.G.; Abramson, L.R.

1991-01-01

This report identifies and investigates methodologies to deal with uncertainties in assessing high-level nuclear waste package performance. Four uncertainty evaluation methods (probability-distribution approach, bounding approach, expert judgment, and sensitivity analysis) are suggested as the elements of a methodology that, without either diminishing or enhancing the input uncertainties, can evaluate performance uncertainty. Such a methodology can also help identify critical inputs as a guide to reducing uncertainty so as to provide reasonable assurance that the risk objectives are met. This report examines the current qualitative waste containment regulation and shows how, in conjunction with the identified uncertainty evaluation methodology, a framework for a quantitative probability-based rule can be developed that takes account of the uncertainties. Current US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulation requires that the waste packages provide ''substantially complete containment'' (SCC) during the containment period. The term ''SCC'' is ambiguous and subject to interpretation. This report, together with an accompanying report that describes the technical considerations that must be addressed to satisfy high-level waste containment requirements, provides a basis for a third report to develop recommendations for regulatory uncertainty reduction in the ''containment''requirement of 10 CFR Part 60. 25 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Working and Learning in Times of Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This book analyses the challenges of globalisation and uncertainty impacting on working and learning at individual, organisational and societal levels. Each of the contributions addresses two overall questions: How is working and learning affected by uncertainty and globalisation? And, in what ways...... do individuals, organisations, political actors and education systems respond to these challenges? Part 1 focuses on the micro level of working and learning for understanding the learning processes from an individual point of view by reflecting on learners’ needs and situations at work and in school......). Finally, Part 3 addresses the macro level of working and learning by analysing how to govern, structure and organise vocational, professional and adult education at the boundaries of work, education and policy making....

Calculation of uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements and their functions. Practical Procedure II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gascon, C.; Anton, M.P.

1997-01-01

Environmental radioactivity measurements are mainly affected by counting uncertainties. In this report the uncertainties associated to certain functions related to activity concentration calculations are determined. Some practical exercise are presented to calculate the uncertainties associated to: a) Chemical recovery of a radiochemical separation when employing tracers (i.e. Pu and Am purification from a sediment sample). b) Indirect determination of a mother radionuclide through one of its daughters (i. e. ''210 Pb quantification following its daughter ''210 Po building-up activity). c) Time span from last separation date of one of the components of a disintegration chain (i.e. Am last purification date from a nuclear weapons following ''241 Am and ''241 Pu measurements). Calculations concerning example b) and c) are based on Baterman equations, regulating radioactive equilibria. Although the exercises here presented are performed with certain radionuclides, they could be applied as generic procedures for other alpha-emitting radioelements

Comparison of two uncertainty dressing methods: SAD VS DAD

Science.gov (United States)

Chardon, Jérémy; Mathevet, Thibault; Le-Lay, Matthieu; Gailhard, Joël

2014-05-01

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPSs) allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecast uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts. An operational HEPS has been developed at EDF (French Producer of Electricity) since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on a hundred of watersheds in France. Depending on the hydro-meteorological situation, streamflow forecasts could be issued on a daily basis and are used to help dam management operations during floods or dam works within the river. A part of this HEPS is characterized by a streamflow ensemble post-processing, where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of post-processing methods is to achieve better overall performances, by dressing hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties. The present study compares two post-processing methods, which are based on a logarithmic representation of the residuals distribution of the Rainfall-Runoff (RR) model, based on "perfect" forcing forecasts - i.e. forecasts with observed meteorological variables as inputs. The only difference between the two post-processing methods lies in the sampling of the perfect forcing forecasts for the estimation of the residuals statistics: (i) a first method, referred here as Statistical Analogy Dressing (SAD) model and used for operational HEPS, estimates beforehand the statistics of the residuals by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time, since RR model residuals are not homoscedastic. (ii) an alternative method, referred as Dynamical Analogy Dressing (DAD) model, estimates the statistics of the residuals using the N most similar perfect forcing forecasts. The selection of this N forecasts is based on streamflow range and variation. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, both models were evaluated with perfect forcing forecasts and with ensemble forecasts. Results show that both approaches ensure a good post-processing of

Optimization under Uncertainty of Site-Specific Turbine Configurations: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quick, Julian; Dykes, Katherine; Graf, Peter; Zahle, Frederik

2016-11-01

Uncertainty affects many aspects of wind energy plant performance and cost. In this study, we explore opportunities for site-specific turbine configuration optimization that accounts for uncertainty in the wind resource. As a demonstration, a simple empirical model for wind plant cost of energy is used in an optimization under uncertainty to examine how different risk appetites affect the optimal selection of a turbine configuration for sites of different wind resource profiles. If there is unusually high uncertainty in the site wind resource, the optimal turbine configuration diverges from the deterministic case and a generally more conservative design is obtained with increasing risk aversion on the part of the designer.

Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

2004-01-01

Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Colleen; Gardoni, Paolo; Harris, Charles E

2011-09-01

Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

Automated uncertainty analysis methods in the FRAP computer codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peck, S.O.

1980-01-01

A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been incorporated in the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) computer codes. The FRAP codes have been developed for the analysis of Light Water Reactor fuel rod behavior during steady state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAP-T) conditions as part of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Water Reactor Safety Research Program. The objective of uncertainty analysis of these codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes as a function of known uncertainties in input variables. This paper presents the methods used to generate an uncertainty analysis of a large computer code, discusses the assumptions that are made, and shows techniques for testing them. An uncertainty analysis of FRAP-T calculated fuel rod behavior during a hypothetical loss-of-coolant transient is presented as an example and carried through the discussion to illustrate the various concepts

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastião, P.; Guedes Soares, C.

2006-12-01

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters. In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input. The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained. The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.

Uncertainty analysis for Ulysses safety evaluation report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1991-01-01

As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source---Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show that INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low

II: Through the Western Part of the City: Charlottenburg

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Dieter

Until 1920 the city we now call Berlin was a collection of independent towns and villages — among them Charlottenburg, which was one of the most important and was the proud sister of Berlin, Prussia’s and Germany’s capital, where the wealthy and innovative bourgeoisie lived. Werner von Siemens, Germany’s pioneer in the modern electrical industry, was a prime example of that elite. His castle-like villa was located not far from today’s Ernst-Reuter-Platz at Otto-Suhr-Allee 10-16, and important parts of his enterprise expanded into the “meadows outside of Charlottenburg” during the second half of the 19th century. It was no accident that the efforts to unite Berlin’s two colleges for trade and construction (both founded around 1800) led to the foundation of a modern Technical College in Charlottenburg in 1879, today’s Technical University of Berlin. Its magnificent main building (figure 1), which was opened in 1882 by the German Emperor, was an expression of the great self-confidence of this new institution of higher learning and of Charlottenburg’s bourgeoisie. Although large parts of the building were destroyed by bombs during World War II, you can still get an impression of its monumentality from what survived at number 135 Strasse des 17. Juni.

Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

2017-12-01

Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

Music in the exercise domain: a review and synthesis (Part II).

Science.gov (United States)

Karageorghis, Costas I; Priest, David-Lee

2012-03-01

Since a 1997 review by Karageorghis and Terry, which highlighted the state of knowledge and methodological weaknesses, the number of studies investigating musical reactivity in relation to exercise has swelled considerably. In this two-part review paper, the development of conceptual approaches and mechanisms underlying the effects of music are explicated (Part I), followed by a critical review and synthesis of empirical work (spread over Parts I and II). Pre-task music has been shown to optimise arousal, facilitate task-relevant imagery and improve performance in simple motoric tasks. During repetitive, endurance-type activities, self-selected, motivational and stimulative music has been shown to enhance affect, reduce ratings of perceived exertion, improve energy efficiency and lead to increased work output. There is evidence to suggest that carefully selected music can promote ergogenic and psychological benefits during high-intensity exercise, although it appears to be ineffective in reducing perceptions of exertion beyond the anaerobic threshold. The effects of music appear to be at their most potent when it is used to accompany self-paced exercise or in externally valid conditions. When selected according to its motivational qualities, the positive impact of music on both psychological state and performance is magnified. Guidelines are provided for future research and exercise practitioners.

Shrinkage calibration method for μPIM manufactured parts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quagliotti, Danilo; Tosello, Guido; Salaga, J.

2016-01-01

Five green and five sintered parts of a micro mechanical component, produced by micro powder injection moulding, were measured using an optical coordinate measuring machine. The aim was to establish a method for quality assurance of the final produced parts. Initially, the so called “green” parts...... were compared with the sintered parts (final products) calculating the percentage of shrinkage after sintering. Successively, the expanded uncertainty of the measured dimensions were evaluated for each single part as well as for the overall parts. Finally, the estimated uncertainty for the shrinkage...... was evaluated propagating the expanded uncertainty previously stated and considering green and sintered parts correlated. Results showed that the proposed method can be effective instating tolerances if it is assumed that the variability on the dimensions induced by the shrinkage equals the propagated expanded...

Uncertainties in segmentation and their visualisation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lucieer, Arko

2004-01-01

This thesis focuses on uncertainties in remotely sensed image segmentation and their visualisation. The first part describes a visualisation tool, allowing interaction with the parameters of a fuzzy classification algorithm by visually adjusting fuzzy membership functions of classes in a 3D feature

Summary from the epistemic uncertainty workshop: consensus amid diversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferson, Scott; Joslyn, Cliff A.; Helton, Jon C.; Oberkampf, William L.; Sentz, Kari

2004-01-01

The 'Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop' sponsored by Sandia National Laboratories was held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on 6-7 August 2002. The workshop was organized around a set of Challenge Problems involving both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty that the workshop participants were invited to solve and discuss. This concluding article in a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety based on the workshop discusses the intent of the Challenge Problems, summarizes some discussions from the workshop, and provides a technical comparison among the papers in this special issue. The Challenge Problems were computationally simple models that were intended as vehicles for the illustration and comparison of conceptual and numerical techniques for use in analyses that involve: (i) epistemic uncertainty, (ii) aggregation of multiple characterizations of epistemic uncertainty, (iii) combination of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, and (iv) models with repeated parameters. There was considerable diversity of opinion at the workshop about both methods and fundamental issues, and yet substantial consensus about what the answers to the problems were, and even about how each of the four issues should be addressed. Among the technical approaches advanced were probability theory, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, random sets, sets of probability measures, imprecise coherent probabilities, coherent lower previsions, probability boxes, possibility theory, fuzzy sets, joint distribution tableaux, polynomial chaos expansions, and info-gap models. Although some participants maintained that a purely probabilistic approach is fully capable of accounting for all forms of uncertainty, most agreed that the treatment of epistemic uncertainty introduces important considerations and that the issues underlying the Challenge Problems are legitimate and significant. Topics identified as meriting additional research include elicitation of uncertainty representations, aggregation of

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Sallaberry, C.J.; Storlie, C.B.

2006-01-01

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (i) definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs (ii) generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs (iii) propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis (iv) presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (v) determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition

Detecting quantum entanglement. Entanglement witnesses and uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guehne, O.

2004-01-01

This thesis deals with methods of the detection of entanglement. After recalling some facts and definitions concerning entanglement and separability, we investigate two methods of the detection of entanglement. In the first part of this thesis we consider so-called entanglement witnesses, mainly in view of the detection of multipartite entanglement. Entanglement witnesses are observables for which a negative expectation value indicates entanglement. We first present a simple method to construct these witnesses. Since witnesses are nonlocal observables, they are not easy to measure in a real experiment. However, as we will show, one can circumvent this problem by decomposing the witness into several local observables which can be measured separately. We calculate the local decompositions for several interesting witnesses for two, three and four qubits. Local decompositions can be optimized in the number of measurement settings which are needed for an experimental implementation. We present a method to prove that a given local decomposition is optimal and discuss with this the optimality of our decompositions. Then we present another method of designing witnesses which are by construction measurable with local measurements. Finally, we shortly report on experiments where some of the witnesses derived in this part have been used to detect three- and four-partite entanglement of polarized photons. The second part of this thesis deals with separability criteria which are written in terms of uncertainty relations. There are two different formulations of uncertainty relations since one can measure the uncertainty of an observable by its variance as well as by entropic quantities. We show that both formulations are useful tools for the derivation of separability criteria for finite-dimensional systems and investigate the resulting criteria. Our results in this part exhibit also some more fundamental properties of entanglement: We show how known separability criteria for

The Uncertainty Test for the MAAP Computer Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S. H.; Song, Y. M.; Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I.; Kim, K. R.; Lee, Y. J.

2008-01-01

After the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Chernobyl accidents, safety issues for a severe accident are treated in various aspects. Major issues in our research part include a level 2 PSA. The difficulty in expanding the level 2 PSA as a risk information activity is the uncertainty. In former days, it attached a weight to improve the quality in a internal accident PSA, but the effort is insufficient for decrease the phenomenon uncertainty in the level 2 PSA. In our country, the uncertainty degree is high in the case of a level 2 PSA model, and it is necessary to secure a model to decrease the uncertainty. We have not yet experienced the uncertainty assessment technology, the assessment system itself depends on advanced nations. In advanced nations, the severe accident simulator is implemented in the hardware level. But in our case, basic function in a software level can be implemented. In these circumstance at home and abroad, similar instances are surveyed such as UQM and MELCOR. Referred to these instances, SAUNA (Severe Accident UNcertainty Analysis) system is being developed in our project to assess and decrease the uncertainty in a level 2 PSA. It selects the MAAP code to analyze the uncertainty in a severe accident

Uncertainty evaluation of data and information fusion within the context of the decision loop

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

De Villiers, J Pieter

2016-07-01

Full Text Available . Here, the uncertainties in the combination and decision parts of the information flow are considered. The objective of this paper is to make explicit how uncertainties that arise during design, combine with uncertainties during runtime, as well...

Evaluation of uncertainties in benefit-cost studies of electrical power plants. II. Development and application of a procedure for quantifying environmental uncertainties of a nuclear power plant. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, W.G.

1977-07-01

Steam-electric generation plants are evaluated on a benefit-cost basis. Non-economic factors in the development and application of a procedure for quantifying environmental uncertainties of a nuclear power plant are discussed. By comparing monetary costs of a particular power plant assessed in Part 1 with non-monetary values arrived at in Part 2 and using an evaluation procedure developed in this study, a proposed power plant can be selected as a preferred alternative. This procedure enables policymakers to identify the incremental advantages and disadvantages of different power plants in view of their geographic locations. The report presents the evaluation procedure on a task by task basis and shows how it can be applied to a particular power plant. Because of the lack of objective data, it draws heavily on subjectively-derived inputs of individuals who are knowledgeable about the plant being investigated. An abbreviated study at another power plant demonstrated the transferability of the general evaluation procedure. Included in the appendices are techniques for developing scoring functions and a user's manual for the Fortran IV Program

A stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty for groundwater remediation design-Part I. Model development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, L., E-mail: li.he@ryerson.ca [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Science, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 2K3 (Canada); Huang, G.H. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); College of Urban Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Lu, H.W. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada)

2010-04-15

Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the 'true' ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes.

Uncertainty visualisation in the Model Web

Science.gov (United States)

Gerharz, L. E.; Autermann, C.; Hopmann, H.; Stasch, C.; Pebesma, E.

2012-04-01

: (i) adjacent maps showing data and uncertainty separately, and (ii) multidimensional mapping providing different visualisation methods in combination to explore the spatial, temporal and uncertainty distribution of the data. Adjacent maps allow a simpler visualisation by separating value and uncertainty maps for non-experts and a first overview. The multidimensional approach allows a more complex exploration of the data for experts by browsing through the different dimensions. It offers the visualisation of maps, statistic plots and time series in different windows and sliders to interactively move through time, space and uncertainty (thresholds).

Impact of petrophysical uncertainty on Bayesian hydrogeophysical inversion and model selection

Science.gov (United States)

Brunetti, Carlotta; Linde, Niklas

2018-01-01

Quantitative hydrogeophysical studies rely heavily on petrophysical relationships that link geophysical properties to hydrogeological properties and state variables. Coupled inversion studies are frequently based on the questionable assumption that these relationships are perfect (i.e., no scatter). Using synthetic examples and crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data from the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site in Virginia, USA, we investigate the impact of spatially-correlated petrophysical uncertainty on inferred posterior porosity and hydraulic conductivity distributions and on Bayes factors used in Bayesian model selection. Our study shows that accounting for petrophysical uncertainty in the inversion (I) decreases bias of the inferred variance of hydrogeological subsurface properties, (II) provides more realistic uncertainty assessment and (III) reduces the overconfidence in the ability of geophysical data to falsify conceptual hydrogeological models.

Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process – A framework and guidance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Refsgaard, J.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489; Hojberg, A.L.; Vanrolleghem, P.

2007-01-01

A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader water management process and the role of uncertainty at different stages in the modelling processes. Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for fusion power measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sjöstrand Henrik

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Neutron measurements using neutron activation systems are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. Nuclear data is used to infer the neutron yield. Consequently, high-quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are not fully taken into account in uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. This paper investigates the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of the JET fusion machine; the uncertainties due to the cross-sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross-sections in the activation foils, are analysed. It is found that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.

Quantifying uncertainties in precipitation: a case study from Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Anagnostopoulou

2008-04-01

Full Text Available The main objective of the present study was the examination and the quantification of the uncertainties in the precipitation time series over the Greek area, for a 42-year time period. The uncertainty index applied to the rainfall data is a combination (total of the departures of the rainfall season length, of the median data of the accumulated percentages and of the total amounts of rainfall. Results of the study indicated that all the stations are characterized, on an average basis, by medium to high uncertainty. The stations that presented an increasing rainfall uncertainty were the ones located mainly to the continental parts of the study region. From the temporal analysis of the uncertainty index, it was demonstrated that the greatest percentage of the years, for all the stations time-series, was characterized by low to high uncertainty (intermediate categories of the index. Most of the results of the uncertainty index for the Greek region are similar to the corresponding results of various stations all over the European region.

Study of the Effect of Temporal Sampling Frequency on DSCOVR Observations Using the GEOS-5 Nature Run Results. Part II; Cloud Coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Holdaway, Daniel; Yang, Yuekui

2016-01-01

This is the second part of a study on how temporal sampling frequency affects satellite retrievals in support of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission. Continuing from Part 1, which looked at Earth's radiation budget, this paper presents the effect of sampling frequency on DSCOVR-derived cloud fraction. The output from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Nature Run is used as the "truth". The effect of temporal resolution on potential DSCOVR observations is assessed by subsampling the full Nature Run data. A set of metrics, including uncertainty and absolute error in the subsampled time series, correlation between the original and the subsamples, and Fourier analysis have been used for this study. Results show that, for a given sampling frequency, the uncertainties in the annual mean cloud fraction of the sunlit half of the Earth are larger over land than over ocean. Analysis of correlation coefficients between the subsamples and the original time series demonstrates that even though sampling at certain longer time intervals may not increase the uncertainty in the mean, the subsampled time series is further and further away from the "truth" as the sampling interval becomes larger and larger. Fourier analysis shows that the simulated DSCOVR cloud fraction has underlying periodical features at certain time intervals, such as 8, 12, and 24 h. If the data is subsampled at these frequencies, the uncertainties in the mean cloud fraction are higher. These results provide helpful insights for the DSCOVR temporal sampling strategy.

A stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty for groundwater remediation design--part I. Model development.

Science.gov (United States)

He, L; Huang, G H; Lu, H W

2010-04-15

Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the "true" ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of cDNA for human tripeptidyl peptidase II: The N-terminal part of the enzyme is similar to subtilisin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomkinson, B.; Jonsson, A-K

1991-01-01

Tripeptidyl peptidase II is a high molecular weight serine exopeptidase, which has been purified from rat liver and human erythrocytes. Four clones, representing 4453 bp, or 90% of the mRNA of the human enzyme, have been isolated from two different cDNA libraries. One clone, designated A2, was obtained after screening a human B-lymphocyte cDNA library with a degenerated oligonucleotide mixture. The B-lymphocyte cDNA library, obtained from human fibroblasts, were rescreened with a 147 bp fragment from the 5' part of the A2 clone, whereby three different overlapping cDNA clones could be isolated. The deduced amino acid sequence, 1196 amino acid residues, corresponding to the longest open rading frame of the assembled nucleotide sequence, was compared to sequences of current databases. This revealed a 56% similarity between the bacterial enzyme subtilisin and the N-terminal part of tripeptidyl peptidase II. The enzyme was found to be represented by two different mRNAs of 4.2 and 5.0 kilobases, respectively, which probably result from the utilziation of two different polyadenylation sites. Futhermore, cDNA corresponding to both the N-terminal and C-terminal part of tripeptidyl peptidase II hybridized with genomic DNA from mouse, horse, calf, and hen, even under fairly high stringency conditions, indicating that tripeptidyl peptidase II is highly conserved

Benchmarking NLDAS-2 Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration to Separate Uncertainty Contributions

Science.gov (United States)

Nearing, Grey S.; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Xia, Youlong

2016-01-01

Model benchmarking allows us to separate uncertainty in model predictions caused 1 by model inputs from uncertainty due to model structural error. We extend this method with a large-sample approach (using data from multiple field sites) to measure prediction uncertainty caused by errors in (i) forcing data, (ii) model parameters, and (iii) model structure, and use it to compare the efficiency of soil moisture state and evapotranspiration flux predictions made by the four land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). Parameters dominated uncertainty in soil moisture estimates and forcing data dominated uncertainty in evapotranspiration estimates; however, the models themselves used only a fraction of the information available to them. This means that there is significant potential to improve all three components of the NLDAS-2 system. In particular, continued work toward refining the parameter maps and look-up tables, the forcing data measurement and processing, and also the land surface models themselves, has potential to result in improved estimates of surface mass and energy balances.

Strain gauge measurement uncertainties on hydraulic turbine runner blade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arpin-Pont, J; Gagnon, M; Tahan, S A; Coutu, A; Thibault, D

2012-01-01

Strains experimentally measured with strain gauges can differ from those evaluated using the Finite Element (FE) method. This difference is due mainly to the assumptions and uncertainties inherent to each method. To circumvent this difficulty, we developed a numerical method based on Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate measurement uncertainties produced by the behaviour of a unidirectional welded gauge, its position uncertainty and its integration effect. This numerical method uses the displacement fields of the studied part evaluated by an FE analysis. The paper presents a study case using in situ data measured on a hydraulic turbine runner. The FE analysis of the turbine runner blade was computed, and our numerical method used to evaluate uncertainties on strains measured at five locations with welded strain gauges. Then, measured strains and their uncertainty ranges are compared to the estimated strains. The uncertainty ranges obtained extended from 74 με to 165 με. Furthermore, the biases observed between the median of the uncertainty ranges and the FE strains varied from −36 to 36 με. Note that strain gauge measurement uncertainties depend mainly on displacement fields and gauge geometry.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

Rise, fall and resurrection of chromosome territories: a historical perspective Part II. Fall and resurrection of chromosome territories during the 1950s to 1980s. Part III. Chromosome territories and the functional nuclear architecture: experiments and m

OpenAIRE

T Cremer; C Cremer

2009-01-01

Part II of this historical review on the progress of nuclear architecture studies points out why the original hypothesis of chromosome territories from Carl Rabl and Theodor Boveri (described in part I) was abandoned during the 1950s and finally proven by compelling evidence forwarded by laser-uvmicrobeam studies and in situ hybridization experiments. Part II also includes a section on the development of advanced light microscopic techniques breaking the classical Abbe limit written for reade...

EBR-II Reactor Physics Benchmark Evaluation Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pope, Chad L. [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Lum, Edward S [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Stewart, Ryan [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Byambadorj, Bilguun [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Beaulieu, Quinton [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States)

2017-12-28

This report provides a reactor physics benchmark evaluation with associated uncertainty quantification for the critical configuration of the April 1986 Experimental Breeder Reactor II Run 138B core configuration.

Part I: quantum fluctuations in chains of Josephson junctions. Part II: directed aggregation on the Bethe lattice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bradley, R.M.

1985-01-01

Part I studies the effect of quantum fluctuations of the phase on the low temperature behavior of two models of Josephson junction chains with Coulomb interactions taken into account. The first model, which represents a chain of junctions close to a ground plane, is the Hamiltonian version of the two-dimensional XY model in one space and one time dimension. In the second model, the charging energy for a single junction in the chain is just the parallel-plate capacitor energy. It is shown that quantum fluctuations produce exponential decay of the order parameter correlation junction for any finite value of the junction capacitance. Part II deals with two types of directed aggregation on the Bethe lattice - directed diffusion-limited aggregation DDLA and ballistic aggregation (BA). In the DDLA problem on finite lattices, an exact nonlinear recursion relation is constructed for the probability distribution of the density. The mean density tends to zero as the lattice size is taken into infinity. Using a mapping between the model with perfect adhesion on contact and another model with a particular value of the adhesion probability, it is shown that the adhesion probability is irrelevant over an interval of values

Design of site specific radiopharmaceuticals for tumor imaging. (Parts I and II)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dort, M.E.

1983-01-01

Part I. Synthetic methods were developed for the preparation of several iodinated benzoic acid hydrazides as labeling moieties for indirect tagging of carbonyl-containing bio-molecules and potential tumor-imaging agents. Biodistribution studies conducted in mice on the derivatives having the I-125 label ortho to a phenolic OH demonstrated a rapid in vivo deiodination. Part II. The reported high melanin binding affinity of quinoline and other heterocyclic antimalarial drugs led to the development of many analogues of such molecules as potential melanoma-imaging agents. Once such analogue iodochloroquine does exhibit high melanin binding, but has found limited clinical use due to appreciable accumulation in non-target tissues such as the adrenal cortex and inner ear. This project developed a new series of candidate melanoma imaging agents which would be easier to radio-label, could yield higher specific activity product, and which might demonstrate more favorable pharmacokinetic and dosimetric characteristics compared to iodochloroquine

Developing guidelines for economic evaluation of environmental impacts in EIAs. Part II: Case studies and dose-response literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This Part II of the report contains full versions of the case studies for air, water and land (Chapters 2-4), which were only summarised in Part I. In addition, during the work the research team has collected a large amount of literature and information on dose response relationships for air and water pollution relevant to China. This information is included as Chapters 5 and 6

Developing guidelines for economic evaluation of environmental impacts in EIAs. Part II: Case studies and dose-response literature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

This Part II of the report contains full versions of the case studies for air, water and land (Chapters 2-4), which were only summarised in Part I. In addition, during the work the research team has collected a large amount of literature and information on dose response relationships for air and water pollution relevant to China. This information is included as Chapters 5 and 6.

Repository Planning, Design, and Engineering: Part II-Equipment and Costing.

Science.gov (United States)

Baird, Phillip M; Gunter, Elaine W

2016-08-01

Part II of this article discusses and provides guidance on the equipment and systems necessary to operate a repository. The various types of storage equipment and monitoring and support systems are presented in detail. While the material focuses on the large repository, the requirements for a small-scale startup are also presented. Cost estimates and a cost model for establishing a repository are presented. The cost model presents an expected range of acquisition costs for the large capital items in developing a repository. A range of 5,000-7,000 ft(2) constructed has been assumed, with 50 frozen storage units, to reflect a successful operation with growth potential. No design or engineering costs, permit or regulatory costs, or smaller items such as the computers, software, furniture, phones, and barcode readers required for operations have been included.

Plurality of Type A evaluations of uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Pintar, Adam L.

2017-10-01

The evaluations of measurement uncertainty involving the application of statistical methods to measurement data (Type A evaluations as specified in the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, GUM) comprise the following three main steps: (i) developing a statistical model that captures the pattern of dispersion or variability in the experimental data, and that relates the data either to the measurand directly or to some intermediate quantity (input quantity) that the measurand depends on; (ii) selecting a procedure for data reduction that is consistent with this model and that is fit for the purpose that the results are intended to serve; (iii) producing estimates of the model parameters, or predictions based on the fitted model, and evaluations of uncertainty that qualify either those estimates or these predictions, and that are suitable for use in subsequent uncertainty propagation exercises. We illustrate these steps in uncertainty evaluations related to the measurement of the mass fraction of vanadium in a bituminous coal reference material, including the assessment of the homogeneity of the material, and to the calibration and measurement of the amount-of-substance fraction of a hydrochlorofluorocarbon in air, and of the age of a meteorite. Our goal is to expose the plurality of choices that can reasonably be made when taking each of the three steps outlined above, and to show that different choices typically lead to different estimates of the quantities of interest, and to different evaluations of the associated uncertainty. In all the examples, the several alternatives considered represent choices that comparably competent statisticians might make, but who differ in the assumptions that they are prepared to rely on, and in their selection of approach to statistical inference. They represent also alternative treatments that the same statistician might give to the same data when the results are intended for different purposes.

Problems due to icing of overhead lines - Part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Havard, D.G.; Pon, C.J.; Krishnasamy, S.G.

1985-01-01

A companion paper describes uncertainties in overhead line design due to the variability of ice and wind loads. This paper reviews two other effects due to icing; conductor galloping and torsional instability, which require further study. (author)

Financial development, uncertainty and economic growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lensink, B.W.

By performing a cross-country growth regression for the 1970-1998 period this paper finds evidence for the fact that the impact of policy uncertainty on economic growth depends on the development of the financial sector. It appears that a higher level of financial development partly mitigates the

Three Mile Island: a report to the commissioners and to the public. Volume II, Part 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

This is part one of three parts of the second volume of the Special Inquiry Group's report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on the accident at Three Mile Island. The first volume contained a narrative description of the accident and a discussion of the major conclusions and recommendations. This second volume is divided into three parts. Part 1 of Volume II focuses on the pre-accident licensing and regulatory background. This part includes an examination of the overall licensing and regulatory system for nuclear powerplants viewed from different perspectives: the system as it is set forth in statutes and regulations, as described in Congressional testimony, and an overview of the system as it really works. In addition, Part 1 includes the licensing, operating, and inspection history of Three Mile Island Unit 2, discussions of relevant regulatory matters, a discussion of specific precursor events related to the accident, a case study of the pressurizer design issue, and an analysis of incentives to declare commercial operation

OpenTURNS, an open source uncertainty engineering software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popelin, A.L.; Dufoy, A.

2013-01-01

The needs to assess robust performances for complex systems have lead to the emergence of a new industrial simulation challenge: to take into account uncertainties when dealing with complex numerical simulation frameworks. EDF has taken part in the development of an Open Source software platform dedicated to uncertainty propagation by probabilistic methods, named OpenTURNS for Open source Treatment of Uncertainty, Risk and Statistics. OpenTURNS includes a large variety of qualified algorithms in order to manage uncertainties in industrial studies, from the uncertainty quantification step (with possibilities to model stochastic dependence thanks to the copula theory and stochastic processes), to the uncertainty propagation step (with some innovative simulation algorithms as the ziggurat method for normal variables) and the sensitivity analysis one (with some sensitivity index based on the evaluation of means conditioned to the realization of a particular event). It also enables to build some response surfaces that can include the stochastic modeling (with the chaos polynomial method for example). Generic wrappers to link OpenTURNS to the modeling software are proposed. At last, OpenTURNS is largely documented to provide rules to help use and contribution

[Dealing with diagnostic uncertainty in general practice].

Science.gov (United States)

Wübken, Magdalena; Oswald, Jana; Schneider, Antonius

2013-01-01

In general, the prevalence of diseases is low in primary care. Therefore, the positive predictive value of diagnostic tests is lower than in hospitals where patients are highly selected. In addition, the patients present with milder forms of disease; and many diseases might hide behind the initial symptom(s). These facts lead to diagnostic uncertainty which is somewhat inherent to general practice. This narrative review discusses different sources of and reasons for uncertainty and strategies to deal with it in the context of the current literature. Fear of uncertainty correlates with higher diagnostic activities. The attitude towards uncertainty correlates with the choice of medical speciality by vocational trainees or medical students. An intolerance of uncertainty, which still increases as medicine is making steady progress, might partly explain the growing shortage of general practitioners. The bio-psycho-social context appears to be important to diagnostic decision-making. The effect of intuition and heuristics are investigated by cognitive psychologists. It is still unclear whether these aspects are prone to bias or useful, which might depend on the context of medical decisions. Good communication is of great importance to share uncertainty with the patients in a transparent way and to alleviate shared decision-making. Dealing with uncertainty should be seen as an important core component of general practice and needs to be investigated in more detail to improve the respective medical decisions. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Market Analysis and Consumer Impacts Source Document. Part II. Review of Motor Vehicle Market and Consumer Expenditures on Motor Vehicle Transportation

Science.gov (United States)

1980-12-01

This source document on motor vehicle market analysis and consumer impacts consists of three parts. Part II consists of studies and review on: motor vehicle sales trends; motor vehicle fleet life and fleet composition; car buying patterns of the busi...

Calibration of tri-axial MEMS accelerometers in the low-frequency range – Part 2: Uncertainty assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. D'Emilia

2018-05-01

Full Text Available A comparison among three methods for the calibration of tri-axial accelerometers, in particular MEMS, is presented in this paper, paying attention to the uncertainty assessment of each method. The first method is performed according to the ISO 16063 standards. Two innovative methods are analysed, both suitable for in-field application. The effects on the whole uncertainty of the following aspects have been evaluated: the test bench performances in realizing the reference motion, the vibration reference sensor, the geometrical parameters and the data processing techniques. The uncertainty contributions due to the offset and the transverse sensitivity are also studied, by calibrating two different types of accelerometers, a piezoelectric one and a capacitive one, to check their effect on the accuracy of the methods under comparison. The reproducibility of methods is demonstrated. Relative uncertainty of methods ranges from 3 to 5 %, depending on the complexity of the model and of the requested operations. The results appear promising for low-cost calibration of new tri-axial accelerometers of MEMS type.

Uncertainty modelling and analysis of environmental systems: a river sediment yield example

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keesman, K.J.; Koskela, J.; Guillaume, J.H.; Norton, J.P.; Croke, B.; Jakeman, A.

2011-01-01

Abstract: Throughout the last decades uncertainty analysis has become an essential part of environmental model building (e.g. Beck 1987; Refsgaard et al., 2007). The objective of the paper is to introduce stochastic and setmembership uncertainty modelling concepts, which basically differ in the

Accounting for Model Uncertainties Using Reliability Methods - Application to Carbon Dioxide Geologic Sequestration System. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, Chin Man; Doughty, Christine; Zhang, Keni; Pruess, Karsten; Kiureghian, Armen; Zhang, Miao; Kaback, Dawn

2010-01-01

A new computer code, CALRELTOUGH, which uses reliability methods to incorporate parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis into subsurface flow and transport models, was developed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. in collaboration with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and University of California at Berkeley. The CALREL reliability code was developed at the University of California at Berkely for geotechnical applications and the TOUGH family of codes was developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for subsurface flow and tranport applications. The integration of the two codes provides provides a new approach to deal with uncertainties in flow and transport modeling of the subsurface, such as those uncertainties associated with hydrogeology parameters, boundary conditions, and initial conditions of subsurface flow and transport using data from site characterization and monitoring for conditioning. The new code enables computation of the reliability of a system and the components that make up the system, instead of calculating the complete probability distributions of model predictions at all locations at all times. The new CALRELTOUGH code has tremendous potential to advance subsurface understanding for a variety of applications including subsurface energy storage, nuclear waste disposal, carbon sequestration, extraction of natural resources, and environmental remediation. The new code was tested on a carbon sequestration problem as part of the Phase I project. Phase iI was not awarded.

Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part II: Impacts to IR radiance assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Marquis, J. W.; Campbell, J. R.; Oyola, M. I.; Ruston, B. C.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

This is part II of a two-part series examining the impacts of aerosol particles on weather forecasts. In this study, the aerosol indirect effects on weather forecasts are explored by examining the temperature and moisture analysis associated with assimilating dust contaminated hyperspectral infrared radiances. The dust induced temperature and moisture biases are quantified for different aerosol vertical distribution and loading scenarios. The overall impacts of dust contamination on temperature and moisture forecasts are quantified over the west coast of Africa, with the assistance of aerosol retrievals from AERONET, MPL, and CALIOP. At last, methods for improving hyperspectral infrared data assimilation in dust contaminated regions are proposed.

International Working Group on Fast Reactors Eight Annual Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 15-18 April 1975. Summary Report. Part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-07-01

The Eighth Annual Meeting of the IAEA International Working Group on Past Reactors was held at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, Austria, from 15 to 18 April 1975. The Summary Report (Part I) contains the Minutes of the Meeting. The Summary Report (Part II) contains the papers which review the national programmes in the field of LMPBR’s and other presentations at the Meeting. The Summary Report (Part III) contains the discussions on the review of the national programmes

GUIDANCE2: accurate detection of unreliable alignment regions accounting for the uncertainty of multiple parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Sela, Itamar; Ashkenazy, Haim; Katoh, Kazutaka; Pupko, Tal

2015-07-01

Inference of multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) is a critical part of phylogenetic and comparative genomics studies. However, from the same set of sequences different MSAs are often inferred, depending on the methodologies used and the assumed parameters. Much effort has recently been devoted to improving the ability to identify unreliable alignment regions. Detecting such unreliable regions was previously shown to be important for downstream analyses relying on MSAs, such as the detection of positive selection. Here we developed GUIDANCE2, a new integrative methodology that accounts for: (i) uncertainty in the process of indel formation, (ii) uncertainty in the assumed guide tree and (iii) co-optimal solutions in the pairwise alignments, used as building blocks in progressive alignment algorithms. We compared GUIDANCE2 with seven methodologies to detect unreliable MSA regions using extensive simulations and empirical benchmarks. We show that GUIDANCE2 outperforms all previously developed methodologies. Furthermore, GUIDANCE2 also provides a set of alternative MSAs which can be useful for downstream analyses. The novel algorithm is implemented as a web-server, available at: http://guidance.tau.ac.il. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Social class, political power, and the state: their implications in medicine--parts I and II.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, V

1976-01-01

This three part article presents an anlysis of the distribution of power and of the nature of the state in Western industrialized societies and details their implications in medicine. Part I presents a critique of contemporary theories of the Western system of power; discusses the countervailing pluralist and power elite theories, as well as those of bureaucratic and professional control; and concludes with an examination of the Marxist theories of economic determinism, structural determinism, and corporate statism. Part II presents a Marxist theory of the role, nature, and characteristics of state intervention. Part III (which will appear in the next issue of this journal) focuses on the mode of that intervention and the reasons for its growth, with an added analysis of the attributes of state intervention in the health sector, and of the dialectical relationship between its growth and the current fiscal crisis of the state. In all three parts, the focus is on Western European countries and on North America, with many examples and categories from the area of medicine.

Uncertainty and equipoise: at interplay between epistemology, decision making and ethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-10-01

In recent years, various authors have proposed that the concept of equipoise be abandoned because it conflates the practice of clinical care with clinical research. At the same time, the equipoise opponents acknowledge the necessity of clinical research if there are unresolved uncertainties about the effects of proposed healthcare interventions. As equipoise represents just 1 measure of uncertainty, proposals to abandon equipoise while maintaining a requirement for addressing uncertainties are contradictory and ultimately not valid. As acknowledgment and articulation of uncertainties represent key scientific and moral requirements for human experimentation, the concept of equipoise remains the most useful framework to link the theory of human experimentation with the theory of rational choice. In this article, I show how uncertainty (equipoise) is at the intersection between epistemology, decision making and ethics of clinical research. In particular, I show how our formulation of responses to uncertainties of hoped-for benefits and unknown harms of testing is a function of the way humans cognitively process information. This approach is based on the view that considerations of ethics and rationality cannot be separated. I analyze the response to uncertainties as it relates to the dual-processing theory, which postulates that rational approach to (clinical research) decision making depends both on analytical, deliberative processes embodied in scientific method (system II), and good human intuition (system I). Ultimately, our choices can only become wiser if we understand a close and intertwined relationship between irreducible uncertainty, inevitable errors and unavoidable injustice.

Reforming Science Education: Part II. Utilizing Kieran Egan's Educational Metatheory

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Roland M.

2009-04-01

This paper is the second of two parts and continues the conversation which had called for a shift in the conceptual focus of science education towards philosophy of education, with the requirement to develop a discipline-specific “philosophy” of science education. In Part I, conflicting conceptions of science literacy were identified with disparate “visions” tied to competing research programs as well as school-based curricular paradigms. The impasse in the goals of science education and thereto, the contending views of science literacy, were themselves associated with three underlying fundamental aims of education (knowledge-itself; personal development; socialization) which, it was argued, usually undercut the potential of each other. During periods of “crisis-talk” and throughout science educational history these three aims have repeatedly attempted to assert themselves. The inability of science education research to affect long-term change in classrooms was correlated not only to the failure to reach a consensus on the aims (due to competing programs and to the educational ideologies of their social groups), but especially to the failure of developing true educational theories (largely neglected since Hirst). Such theories, especially metatheories, could serve to reinforce science education’s growing sense of academic autonomy and independence from socio-economic demands. In Part II, I offer as a suggestion Egan’s cultural-linguistic theory as a metatheory to help resolve the impasse. I hope to make reformers familiar with his important ideas in general, and more specifically, to show how they can complement HPS rationales and reinforce the work of those researchers who have emphasized the value of narrative in learning science.

Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali

2006-01-01

This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)

Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 21st Pacific Asia Conference, PAKDD 2017 Held in Jeju, South Korea, May 23 26, 2017. Proceedings Part I, Part II.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-27

Data Mining 21’’ Pacific-Asia Conference, PAKDD 2017Jeju, South Korea, May 23-26, Sb. GRANT NUMBER 2017 Proceedings, Part I, Part II Sc. PROGRAM...Springer; Switzerland. 14. ABSTRACT The Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (PAKDD) is a leading international conference...in the areas of knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD). We had three keynote speeches, delivered by Sang Cha from Seoul National University

(II) complexes

African Journals Online (AJOL)

activities of Schiff base tin (II) complexes. Neelofar1 ... Conclusion: All synthesized Schiff bases and their Tin (II) complexes showed high antimicrobial and ...... Singh HL. Synthesis and characterization of tin (II) complexes of fluorinated Schiff bases derived from amino acids. Spectrochim Acta Part A: Molec Biomolec.

Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petar Soric

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to quantify institutional (political and fiscal and non-institutional uncertainty (economic policy uncertainty, Economists’ recession index, natural disasters-related uncertainty, and several disagreement measures. The stated indicators are based on articles from highly popular Croatian news portals, the repository of law amendments (Narodne novine, and Business and Consumer Surveys. We also introduce a composite uncertainty indicator, obtained by the principal components method. The analysis of a structural VAR model of the Croatian economy (both with fixed and time-varying parameters has showed that a vast part of the analysed indicators are significant predictors of economic activity. It is demonstrated that their impact on industrial production is the strongest in the onset of a crisis. On the other hand, the influence of fiscal uncertainty exhibits just the opposite tendencies. It strengthens with the intensification of economic activity, which partially exculpates the possible utilization of fiscal expansion as a counter-crisis tool.

Understanding uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lindley, Dennis V

2013-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

HERBICIDAS INIBIDORES DO FOTOSSISTEMA II – PARTE I /\tPHOTOSYSTEM II INHIBITOR HERBICIDES - PART I

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ILCA P. DE F. E SILVA

2013-11-01

Full Text Available O controle químico tem sido o mais utilizado em grandes áreas de plantio, principalmente por ser um método rápido e eficiente. Os herbicidas inibidores do fotossistema II (PSII são fundamentais para o manejo integrado de plantas daninhas e práticas conservacionista de solo. A aplicação é realizada em pré-emergência ou pós-emergência inicial das plantas daninhas. A absorção é pelas raízes, tendo como barreira as estrias de Caspari, sendo a translocação realizada pelo xilema. O processo de absorção e translocação também são dependentes das próprias características do produto, como as propriedades lipofílicas e hidrofílicas, as quais podem ser medidas através do coeficiente de partição octanol-água (Kow. A inibição da fotossíntese acontece pela ligação dos herbicidas deste grupo ao sítio de ligação da QB, na proteína D1 do fotossistema II, o qual se localiza na membrana dos tilacóides dos cloroplastos, causando, o bloqueia do transporte de elétrons da QA para QB, interrompendo a fixação do CO2 e a produção de ATP e NAPH2.

The Intolerance of Uncertainty Index: Replication and Extension with an English Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Carleton, R. Nicholas; Gosselin, Patrick; Asmundson, Gordon J. G.

2010-01-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is related to anxiety, depression, worry, and anxiety sensitivity. Precedent IU measures were criticized for psychometric instability and redundancy; alternative measures include the novel 45-item measure (Intolerance of Uncertainty Index; IUI). The IUI was developed in French with 2 parts, assessing general…

Societal Planning: Identifying a New Role for the Transport Planner-Part II: Planning Guidelines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khisty, C. Jotin; Leleur, Steen

1997-01-01

The paper seeks to formulate planning guidelines based on Habermas's theory of communicative action. Specifically, this has led to the formulation of a set of four planning validity claims concerned to four types of planning guidelines concerning adequacy, dependency, suitability and adaptability......-a-vis the planning validity claims. Among other things the contingency of this process is outlined. It is concluded (part I & II) that transport planners can conveniently utilize the guidelines in their professional practice, tailored to their particular settings....

Comments on Uncertainty in Groundwater Governance in the Volcanic Canary Islands, Spain

OpenAIRE

Custodio, Emilio; Cabrera, María; Poncela, Roberto; Cruz-Fuentes, Tatiana; Naranjo, Gema; Miguel, Luis de

2015-01-01

The uncertainty associated with natural magnitudes and processes is conspicuous in water resources and groundwater evaluation. This uncertainty has an essential component and a part that can be reduced to some extent by increasing knowledge, improving monitoring coverage, continuous elaboration of data and accuracy and addressing the related economic and social aspects involved. Reducing uncertainty has a cost that may not be justified by the improvement that is obtainable, but that has to be...

Toward a definition of intolerance of uncertainty: a review of factor analytical studies of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Birrell, Jane; Meares, Kevin; Wilkinson, Andrew; Freeston, Mark

2011-11-01

Since its emergence in the early 1990s, a narrow but concentrated body of research has developed examining the role of intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in worry, and yet we still know little about its phenomenology. In an attempt to clarify our understanding of this construct, this paper traces the way in which our understanding and definition of IU have evolved throughout the literature. This paper also aims to further our understanding of IU by exploring the latent variables measures by the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS; Freeston, Rheaume, Letarte, Dugas & Ladouceur, 1994). A review of the literature surrounding IU confirmed that the current definitions are categorical and lack specificity. A critical review of existing factor analytic studies was carried out in order to determine the underlying factors measured by the IUS. Systematic searches yielded 9 papers for review. Two factors with 12 consistent items emerged throughout the exploratory studies, and the stability of models containing these two factors was demonstrated in subsequent confirmatory studies. It is proposed that these factors represent (i) desire for predictability and an active engagement in seeking certainty, and (ii) paralysis of cognition and action in the face of uncertainty. It is suggested that these factors may represent approach and avoidance responses to uncertainty. Further research is required to confirm the construct validity of these factors and to determine the stability of this structure within clinical samples. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevin Coppersmith

2001-01-01

The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

2008-01-01

In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

Measurement uncertainties for vacuum standards at Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, S. S.; Shin, Y. H.; Chung, K. H.

2006-01-01

The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM) (Sec. II, Figs. 1 and 2) for low vacuum, a static expansion system (SES) (Sec. III, Figs. 3 and 4) for medium vacuum, and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (DES) (Sec. IV, Figs. 5 and 6) for high and ultrahigh vacuum. For each system explicit measurement model equations with multiple variables are, respectively, given. According to ISO standards, all these system variable errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U). For each system the expanded uncertainties (k=1, confidence level=95%) and relative expanded uncertainty (expanded uncertainty/generated pressure) are summarized in Table IV and are estimated to be as follows. For UIM, at 2.5-300 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -2 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 ; at 1-100 kPa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -5 . For SES, at 3-100 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -1 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 . For DES, at 4.6x10 -3 -1.3x10 -2 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -4 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 ; at 3.0x10 -6 -9.0x10 -4 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -6 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 . Within uncertainty limits our bilateral and key comparisons [CCM.P-K4 (10 Pa-1 kPa)] are extensive and in good agreement with those of other nations (Fig. 8 and Table V)

Two-loop renormalization in the standard model, part II. Renormalization procedures and computational techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Actis, S. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany); Passarino, G. [Torino Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica Teorica; INFN, Sezione di Torino (Italy)

2006-12-15

In part I general aspects of the renormalization of a spontaneously broken gauge theory have been introduced. Here, in part II, two-loop renormalization is introduced and discussed within the context of the minimal Standard Model. Therefore, this paper deals with the transition between bare parameters and fields to renormalized ones. The full list of one- and two-loop counterterms is shown and it is proven that, by a suitable extension of the formalism already introduced at the one-loop level, two-point functions suffice in renormalizing the model. The problem of overlapping ultraviolet divergencies is analyzed and it is shown that all counterterms are local and of polynomial nature. The original program of 't Hooft and Veltman is at work. Finite parts are written in a way that allows for a fast and reliable numerical integration with all collinear logarithms extracted analytically. Finite renormalization, the transition between renormalized parameters and physical (pseudo-)observables, are discussed in part III where numerical results, e.g. for the complex poles of the unstable gauge bosons, are shown. An attempt is made to define the running of the electromagnetic coupling constant at the two-loop level. (orig.)

An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2009-01-01

Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

Uncertainty contributions to low flow projections in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Parajka, J.; Blaschke, A. P.; Blöschl, G.; Haslinger, K.; Hepp, G.; Laaha, G.; Schöner, W.; Trautvetter, H.; Viglione, A.; Zessner, M.

2015-11-01

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterizations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976-1986, 1987-1997, 1998-2008), which allows disentangling the effect of modeling uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the calibration uncertainty in terms of Q95 is larger in basins with summer low flow regime than in basins with winter low flow regime. Using different calibration periods may result in a range of up to 60 % in simulated Q95 low flows. The low flow projections show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10-30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range -5 to -20 % for the period 2021-2050 relative the reference period 1976-2008. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the Northern Alps and later low flows in Eastern Austria. In 85 % of the basins, the uncertainty in Q95 from model calibration is larger than the uncertainty from different climate scenarios. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with winter low flow regime and, in some basins, exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows and the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. While the calibration uncertainty dominates over climate

Handling Uncertainties within R&D Modules of a developing Technology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jørgen Lindgaard; Perunovic, Zoran

2004-01-01

. Third, the modules that have had always been present in the insulin's R&D, enabled companies to develop mechanism for internal learning and are able to master that part of the process. Finally, in the R&D, outsourcing is related to the whole knowledge acquisition while it seems that minor uncertainties...... and an interview conducted have generated following. First, the further along the process train a module is, it accumulates uncertainties from previous modules. Second, with the growth of complexity, uncertainties grew as well, resulting in the necessity for companies to seek for knowledge on them externally...

Nuclear physics II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elze, T.

1988-01-01

This script consisting of two parts contains the matter of the courses Nuclear Pyhsics I and II, as they were presented in the winter term 1987/88 and summer term 1988 for students of physics at Frankfurt University. In the present part II the matter of the summer term is summarized. (orig.) [de

Quantification of Uncertainty in Thermal Building Simulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brohus, Henrik; Haghighat, F.; Frier, Christian

In order to quantify uncertainty in thermal building simulation stochastic modelling is applied on a building model. An application of stochastic differential equations is presented in Part 1 comprising a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building to determine...

Recognizing and responding to uncertainty: a grounded theory of nurses' uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranley, Lisa A; Doran, Diane M; Tourangeau, Ann E; Kushniruk, Andre; Nagle, Lynn

2012-08-01

There has been little research to date exploring nurses' uncertainty in their practice. Understanding nurses' uncertainty is important because it has potential implications for how care is delivered. The purpose of this study is to develop a substantive theory to explain how staff nurses experience and respond to uncertainty in their practice. Between 2006 and 2008, a grounded theory study was conducted that included in-depth semi-structured interviews. Fourteen staff nurses working in adult medical-surgical intensive care units at two teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, participated in the study. The theory recognizing and responding to uncertainty characterizes the processes through which nurses' uncertainty manifested and how it was managed. Recognizing uncertainty involved the processes of assessing, reflecting, questioning, and/or being unable to predict aspects of the patient situation. Nurses' responses to uncertainty highlighted the cognitive-affective strategies used to manage uncertainty. Study findings highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and having collegial support to manage uncertainty. The theory adds to our understanding the processes involved in recognizing uncertainty, strategies and outcomes of managing uncertainty, and influencing factors. Tailored nursing education programs should be developed to assist nurses in developing skills in articulating and managing their uncertainty. Further research is needed to extend, test and refine the theory of recognizing and responding to uncertainty to develop strategies for managing uncertainty. This theory advances the nursing perspective of uncertainty in clinical practice. The theory is relevant to nurses who are faced with uncertainty and complex clinical decisions, to managers who support nurses in their clinical decision-making, and to researchers who investigate ways to improve decision-making and care delivery. ©2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

2009-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

Roots/Routes: Part II

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, Dalene M.

2009-01-01

This narrative acts as an articulation of a journey of many routes. Following Part I of the same research journey of rootedness/routedness, it debates the nature of transformation and transcendence beyond personal and political paradoxes informed by neoliberalism and related repressive globalizing discourses. Through a more personal, descriptive,…

The neurobiology of uncertainty: implications for statistical learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasson, Uri

2017-01-05

The capacity for assessing the degree of uncertainty in the environment relies on estimating statistics of temporally unfolding inputs. This, in turn, allows calibration of predictive and bottom-up processing, and signalling changes in temporally unfolding environmental features. In the last decade, several studies have examined how the brain codes for and responds to input uncertainty. Initial neurobiological experiments implicated frontoparietal and hippocampal systems, based largely on paradigms that manipulated distributional features of visual stimuli. However, later work in the auditory domain pointed to different systems, whose activation profiles have interesting implications for computational and neurobiological models of statistical learning (SL). This review begins by briefly recapping the historical development of ideas pertaining to the sensitivity to uncertainty in temporally unfolding inputs. It then discusses several issues at the interface of studies of uncertainty and SL. Following, it presents several current treatments of the neurobiology of uncertainty and reviews recent findings that point to principles that serve as important constraints on future neurobiological theories of uncertainty, and relatedly, SL. This review suggests it may be useful to establish closer links between neurobiological research on uncertainty and SL, considering particularly mechanisms sensitive to local and global structure in inputs, the degree of input uncertainty, the complexity of the system generating the input, learning mechanisms that operate on different temporal scales and the use of learnt information for online prediction.This article is part of the themed issue 'New frontiers for statistical learning in the cognitive sciences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Estimation of uncertainty in pKa values determined by potentiometric titration.

Science.gov (United States)

Koort, Eve; Herodes, Koit; Pihl, Viljar; Leito, Ivo

2004-06-01

A procedure is presented for estimation of uncertainty in measurement of the pK(a) of a weak acid by potentiometric titration. The procedure is based on the ISO GUM. The core of the procedure is a mathematical model that involves 40 input parameters. A novel approach is used for taking into account the purity of the acid, the impurities are not treated as inert compounds only, their possible acidic dissociation is also taken into account. Application to an example of practical pK(a) determination is presented. Altogether 67 different sources of uncertainty are identified and quantified within the example. The relative importance of different uncertainty sources is discussed. The most important source of uncertainty (with the experimental set-up of the example) is the uncertainty of pH measurement followed by the accuracy of the burette and the uncertainty of weighing. The procedure gives uncertainty separately for each point of the titration curve. The uncertainty depends on the amount of titrant added, being lowest in the central part of the titration curve. The possibilities of reducing the uncertainty and interpreting the drift of the pK(a) values obtained from the same curve are discussed.

Programming an interim report on the SETL project. Part I: generalities. Part II: the SETL language and examples of its use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwartz, J T

1975-06-01

A summary of work during the past several years on SETL, a new programming language drawing its dictions and basic concepts from the mathematical theory of sets, is presented. The work was started with the idea that a programming language modeled after an appropriate version of the formal language of mathematics might allow a programming style with some of the succinctness of mathematics, and that this might ultimately enable one to express and experiment with more complex algorithms than are now within reach. Part I discusses the general approach followed in the work. Part II focuses directly on the details of the SETL language as it is now defined. It describes the facilities of SETL, includes short libraries of miscellaneous and of code optimization algorithms illustrating the use of SETL, and gives a detailed description of the manner in which the set-theoretic primitives provided by SETL are currently implemented. (RWR)

THE PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELING. II. THE CHALLENGE OF COMPARING GALAXY EVOLUTION MODELS TO OBSERVATIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conroy, Charlie; Gunn, James E.; White, Martin

2010-01-01

Models for the formation and evolution of galaxies readily predict physical properties such as star formation rates, metal-enrichment histories, and, increasingly, gas and dust content of synthetic galaxies. Such predictions are frequently compared to the spectral energy distributions of observed galaxies via the stellar population synthesis (SPS) technique. Substantial uncertainties in SPS exist, and yet their relevance to the task of comparing galaxy evolution models to observations has received little attention. In the present work, we begin to address this issue by investigating the importance of uncertainties in stellar evolution, the initial stellar mass function (IMF), and dust and interstellar medium (ISM) properties on the translation from models to observations. We demonstrate that these uncertainties translate into substantial uncertainties in the ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared colors of synthetic galaxies. Aspects that carry significant uncertainties include the logarithmic slope of the IMF above 1 M sun , dust attenuation law, molecular cloud disruption timescale, clumpiness of the ISM, fraction of unobscured starlight, and treatment of advanced stages of stellar evolution including blue stragglers, the horizontal branch, and the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch. The interpretation of the resulting uncertainties in the derived colors is highly non-trivial because many of the uncertainties are likely systematic, and possibly correlated with the physical properties of galaxies. We therefore urge caution when comparing models to observations.

A GLUE uncertainty analysis of a drying model of pharmaceutical granules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Van Hoey, Stijn; Cierkens, Katrijn

2013-01-01

unit, which is part of the full continuous from-powder-to-tablet manufacturing line (Consigma™, GEA Pharma Systems). A validated model describing the drying behaviour of a single pharmaceutical granule in two consecutive phases is used. First of all, the effect of the assumptions at the particle level...... on the prediction uncertainty is assessed. Secondly, the paper focuses on the influence of the most sensitive parameters in the model. Finally, a combined analysis (particle level plus most sensitive parameters) is performed and discussed. To propagate the uncertainty originating from the parameter uncertainty...

Fractional Programming for Communication Systems—Part II: Uplink Scheduling via Matching

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Kaiming; Yu, Wei

2018-05-01

This two-part paper develops novel methodologies for using fractional programming (FP) techniques to design and optimize communication systems. Part I of this paper proposes a new quadratic transform for FP and treats its application for continuous optimization problems. In this Part II of the paper, we study discrete problems, such as those involving user scheduling, which are considerably more difficult to solve. Unlike the continuous problems, discrete or mixed discrete-continuous problems normally cannot be recast as convex problems. In contrast to the common heuristic of relaxing the discrete variables, this work reformulates the original problem in an FP form amenable to distributed combinatorial optimization. The paper illustrates this methodology by tackling the important and challenging problem of uplink coordinated multi-cell user scheduling in wireless cellular systems. Uplink scheduling is more challenging than downlink scheduling, because uplink user scheduling decisions significantly affect the interference pattern in nearby cells. Further, the discrete scheduling variable needs to be optimized jointly with continuous variables such as transmit power levels and beamformers. The main idea of the proposed FP approach is to decouple the interaction among the interfering links, thereby permitting a distributed and joint optimization of the discrete and continuous variables with provable convergence. The paper shows that the well-known weighted minimum mean-square-error (WMMSE) algorithm can also be derived from a particular use of FP; but our proposed FP-based method significantly outperforms WMMSE when discrete user scheduling variables are involved, both in term of run-time efficiency and optimizing results.

Noncardiac findings on cardiac CT. Part II: spectrum of imaging findings.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Killeen, Ronan P

2012-02-01

Cardiac computed tomography (CT) has evolved into an effective imaging technique for the evaluation of coronary artery disease in selected patients. Two distinct advantages over other noninvasive cardiac imaging methods include its ability to directly evaluate the coronary arteries and to provide a unique opportunity to evaluate for alternative diagnoses by assessing the extracardiac structures, such as the lungs and mediastinum, particularly in patients presenting with the chief symptom of acute chest pain. Some centers reconstruct a small field of view (FOV) cropped around the heart but a full FOV (from skin to skin in the area irradiated) is obtainable in the raw data of every scan so that clinically relevant noncardiac findings are identifiable. Debate in the scientific community has centered on the necessity for this large FOV. A review of noncardiac structures provides the opportunity to make alternative diagnoses that may account for the patient\\'s presentation or to detect important but clinically silent problems such as lung cancer. Critics argue that the yield of biopsy-proven cancers is low and that the follow-up of incidental noncardiac findings is expensive, resulting in increased radiation exposure and possibly unnecessary further testing. In this 2-part review we outline the issues surrounding the concept of the noncardiac read, looking for noncardiac findings on cardiac CT. Part I focused on the pros and cons for and against the practice of identifying noncardiac findings on cardiac CT. Part II illustrates the imaging spectrum of cardiac CT appearances of benign and malignant noncardiac pathology.

Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, Chungkung; Pedroni, N.; Zio, E.

2014-01-01

The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest

Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lo, Chungkung [Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge, Paris (France); Pedroni, N.; Zio, E. [Politecnico di Milano, Milano (Italy)

2014-02-15

The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

COMMUNICATING THE PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN THE IQWIG EFFICIENCY FRONTIER TO DECISION-MAKERS

Science.gov (United States)

Stollenwerk, Björn; Lhachimi, Stefan K; Briggs, Andrew; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Caro, Jaime J; Siebert, Uwe; Danner, Marion; Gerber-Grote, Andreas

2015-01-01

The Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) developed—in a consultation process with an international expert panel—the efficiency frontier (EF) approach to satisfy a range of legal requirements for economic evaluation in Germany's statutory health insurance system. The EF approach is distinctly different from other health economic approaches. Here, we evaluate established tools for assessing and communicating parameter uncertainty in terms of their applicability to the EF approach. Among these are tools that perform the following: (i) graphically display overall uncertainty within the IQWiG EF (scatter plots, confidence bands, and contour plots) and (ii) communicate the uncertainty around the reimbursable price. We found that, within the EF approach, most established plots were not always easy to interpret. Hence, we propose the use of price reimbursement acceptability curves—a modification of the well-known cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Furthermore, it emerges that the net monetary benefit allows an intuitive interpretation of parameter uncertainty within the EF approach. This research closes a gap for handling uncertainty in the economic evaluation approach of the IQWiG methods when using the EF. However, the precise consequences of uncertainty when determining prices are yet to be defined. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:24590819

Uncertainty quantification in reactor physics using adjoint/perturbation techniques and adaptive spectral methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gilli, L.

2013-01-01

This thesis presents the development and the implementation of an uncertainty propagation algorithm based on the concept of spectral expansion. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the study of uncertainty propagation methodologies and to the analysis of spectral techniques. The concepts

The Historiography of British Imperial Education Policy, Part II: Africa and the Rest of the Colonial Empire

Science.gov (United States)

Whitehead, Clive

2005-01-01

Part II of this historiographical study examines British education policy in Africa, and in the many crown colonies, protectorates, and mandated territories around the globe. Up until 1920, the British government took far less interest than in India, in the development of schooling in Africa and the rest of the colonial empire, and education was…

Precise Wavelengths and Energy Levels for the Spectra of Cr I, Mn I, and Mn III, and Branching Fractions for the Spectra of Fe II and Cr II

Science.gov (United States)

Nave, Gillian

I propose to measure wavelengths and energy levels for the spectra of Cr I, Mn I, and Mn III covering the wavelength range 80 nm to 5500 nm, and oscillator strengths for Fe II and Cr II in the region 120 nm to 2500 nm. I shall also produce intensity calibrated atlases and linelists of the iron-neon and chromium-neon hollow cathode lamps that can be compared with astrophysical spectra. The spectra will be obtained from archival data from spectrometers at NIST and Kitt Peak National Observatory and additional experimental observations as necessary from Fourier transform (FT) and grating spectrometers at NIST. The wavelength uncertainty of the strong lines will be better than 1 part in 10^7. The radiometric calibration of the spectra will be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of measured oscillator strengths in the near UV region and extend the wavelength range of these measurements down to 120 nm. These will complement and support the measurements of lifetimes and branching fractions by J. E. Lawler in the near UV region. An intensive effort by NIST and Imperial College London that was partly funded by previous NASA awards has resulted in comprehensive analyses of the spectra of Fe II, Cr II and Cu II, with similar analyses of Mn II, Ni II, and Sc II underway. The species included in this proposal will complete the analysis of the first two ionization stages of the elements titanium through nickel using the same techniques, and add the spectrum of Mn III - one of the most important doubly-ionized elements. The elements Cr I and Mn I give large numbers of spectral lines in spectra of cool stars and important absorption lines in the interstellar medium. The spectrum of Mn III is important in chemically peculiar stars and can often only be studied in the UV region. Analyses of many stellar spectra depend on comprehensive analyses of iron-group elements and are hampered by incomplete spectroscopic data. As a result of many decades of work by the group at the

DOE program guide for universities and other research groups. Part I. DOE Research and Development Programs; Part II. DOE Procurement and Assistance Policies/Procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-03-01

This guide addresses the DOE responsibility for fostering advanced research and development of all energy resources, both current and potential. It is intended to provide, in a single publication, all the fundamental information needed by an institution to develop a potential working relationship with DOE. Part I describes DOE research and development programs and facilities, and identifies areas of additional research needs and potential areas for new research opportunities. It also summarizes budget data and identifies the DOE program information contacts for each program. Part II provides researchers and research administrators with an introduction to the DOE administrative policies and procedures for submission and evaluation of proposals and the administration of resulting grants, cooperative agreements, and research contracts. (RWR)

Assessing and addressing moral distress and ethical climate Part II: neonatal and pediatric perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauerland, Jeanie; Marotta, Kathleen; Peinemann, Mary Anne; Berndt, Andrea; Robichaux, Catherine

2015-01-01

Moral distress remains a pervasive and, at times, contested concept in nursing and other health care disciplines. Ethical climate, the conditions and practices in which ethical situations are identified, discussed, and decided, has been shown to exacerbate or ameliorate perceptions of moral distress. The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to explore perceptions of moral distress, moral residue, and ethical climate among registered nurses working in an academic medical center. Two versions of the Moral Distress Scale in addition to the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey were used, and participants were invited to respond to 2 open-ended questions. Part I reported the findings among nurses working in adult acute and critical care units. Part II presents the results from nurses working in pediatric/neonatal units. Significant differences in findings between the 2 groups are discussed. Subsequent interventions developed are also presented.

Uncertainties in the simulation of groundwater recharge at different scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Bogena

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Digital spatial data always imply some kind of uncertainty. The source of this uncertainty can be found in their compilation as well as the conceptual design that causes a more or less exact abstraction of the real world, depending on the scale under consideration. Within the framework of hydrological modelling, in which numerous data sets from diverse sources of uneven quality are combined, the various uncertainties are accumulated. In this study, the GROWA model is taken as an example to examine the effects of different types of uncertainties on the calculated groundwater recharge. Distributed input errors are determined for the parameters' slope and aspect using a Monte Carlo approach. Landcover classification uncertainties are analysed by using the conditional probabilities of a remote sensing classification procedure. The uncertainties of data ensembles at different scales and study areas are discussed. The present uncertainty analysis showed that the Gaussian error propagation method is a useful technique for analysing the influence of input data on the simulated groundwater recharge. The uncertainties involved in the land use classification procedure and the digital elevation model can be significant in some parts of the study area. However, for the specific model used in this study it was shown that the precipitation uncertainties have the greatest impact on the total groundwater recharge error.

Transformation & uncertainty : some thoughts on quantum probability theory, quantum statistics, and natural bundles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssens, B.

2010-01-01

This PHD thesis is concerned partly with uncertainty relations in quantum probability theory, partly with state estimation in quantum stochastics, and partly with natural bundles in differential geometry. The laws of quantum mechanics impose severe restrictions on the performance of measurement.

Mineral resources of parts of the Departments of Antioquia and Caldas, Zone II, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, R.B.; Feininger, Tomas; Barrero, L.; Dario, Rico H.; ,; Alvarez, A.

1970-01-01

The mineral resources of an area of 40,000 sq km, principally in the Department of Antioquia, but including small parts of the Departments of Caldas, C6rdoba, Risaralda, and Tolima, were investigated during the period 1964-68. The area is designated Zone II by the Colombian Inventario Minero Nacional(lMN). The geology of approximately 45 percent of this area, or 18,000 sq km, has been mapped by IMN. Zone II has been a gold producer for centuries, and still produces 75 percent of Colombia's gold. Silver is recovered as a byproduct. Ferruginous laterites have been investigated as potential sources of iron ore but are not commercially exploitable. Nickeliferous laterite on serpentinite near Ure in the extreme northwest corner of the Zone is potentially exploitable, although less promising than similar laterites at Cerro Matoso, north of the Zone boundary. Known deposits of mercury, chromium, manganese, and copper are small and have limited economic potentia1. Cement raw materials are important among nonmetallic resources, and four companies are engaged in the manufacture of portland cement. The eastern half of Zone II contains large carbonate rock reserves, but poor accessibility is a handicap to greater development at present. Dolomite near Amalfi is quarried for the glass-making and other industries. Clay saprolite is abundant and widely used in making brick and tiles in backyard kilns. Kaolin of good quality near La Union is used by the ceramic industry. Subbituminous coal beds of Tertiary are an important resource in the western part of the zone and have good potential for greater development. Aggregate materials for construction are varied and abundant. Deposits of sodic feldspar, talc, decorative stone, and silica are exploited on a small scale. Chrysotils asbestos deposits north of Campamento are being developed to supply fiber for Colombia's thriving asbestos-cement industry, which is presently dependent upon imported fiber. Wollastonite and andalusite are

Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

2011-01-01

In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

Uncertainty analysis guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty analysis guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

Science.gov (United States)

Merchant, C. J.

2017-12-01

How to derive and present uncertainty in climate data records (CDRs) has been debated within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, in search of common principles applicable across a range of essential climate variables. Various points of consensus have been reached, including the importance of improving provision of uncertainty information and the benefit of adopting international norms of metrology for language around the distinct concepts of uncertainty and error. Providing an estimate of standard uncertainty per datum (or the means to readily calculate it) emerged as baseline good practice, and should be highly relevant to users of CDRs when the uncertainty in data is variable (the usual case). Given this baseline, the role of quality flags is clarified as being complementary to and not repetitive of uncertainty information. Data with high uncertainty are not poor quality if a valid estimate of the uncertainty is available. For CDRs and their applications, the error correlation properties across spatio-temporal scales present important challenges that are not fully solved. Error effects that are negligible in the uncertainty of a single pixel may dominate uncertainty in the large-scale and long-term. A further principle is that uncertainty estimates should themselves be validated. The concepts of estimating and propagating uncertainty are generally acknowledged in geophysical sciences, but less widely practised in Earth observation and development of CDRs. Uncertainty in a CDR depends in part (and usually significantly) on the error covariance of the radiances and auxiliary data used in the retrieval. Typically, error covariance information is not available in the fundamental CDR (FCDR) (i.e., with the level-1 radiances), since provision of adequate level-1 uncertainty information is not yet standard practice. Those deriving CDRs thus cannot propagate the radiance uncertainty to their geophysical products. The FIDUCEO project (www.fiduceo.eu) is

Optimizing production under uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Svend

This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...

A statistical approach to determining the uncertainty of peat thickness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Torppa

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents statistical studies of peat thickness to define its expected maximum variation (∆dm(∆r as a function of separation distance Δr. The aim was to provide an estimate of the observational uncertainty in peat depth due to positioning error, and the prediction uncertainty of the computed model. The data were GPS position and ground penetrating radar depth measurements of six mires in different parts of Finland. The calculated observational uncertainty for Finnish mires in general caused, for example, by a 20 m positioning error, is 43 cm in depth with 95 % confidence. The peat depth statistics differed among the six mires, and it is recommended that the mire specific function ∆dm(∆r is defined for each individual mire to obtain the best estimate of observational uncertainty. Knowledge of the observational error and function ∆dm(∆r should be used in peat depth modelling for defining the uncertainty of depth predictions.

Control of uncertain systems by feedback linearization with neural networks augmentation. Part II. Controller validation by numerical simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian TOADER

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The paper was conceived in two parts. Part I, previously published in this journal, highlighted the main steps of adaptive output feedback control for non-affine uncertain systems, having a known relative degree. The main paradigm of this approach was the feedback linearization (dynamic inversion with neural network augmentation. Meanwhile, based on new contributions of the authors, a new paradigm, that of robust servomechanism problem solution, has been added to the controller architecture. The current Part II of the paper presents the validation of the controller hereby obtained by using the longitudinal channel of a hovering VTOL-type aircraft as mathematical model.

A Quantum Field Approach for Advancing Optical Coherence Tomography Part I: First Order Correlations, Single Photon Interference, and Quantum Noise.

Science.gov (United States)

Brezinski, M E

2018-01-01

Optical coherence tomography has become an important imaging technology in cardiology and ophthalmology, with other applications under investigations. Major advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging are likely to occur through a quantum field approach to the technology. In this paper, which is the first part in a series on the topic, the quantum basis of OCT first order correlations is expressed in terms of full field quantization. Specifically first order correlations are treated as the linear sum of single photon interferences along indistinguishable paths. Photons and the electromagnetic (EM) field are described in terms of quantum harmonic oscillators. While the author feels the study of quantum second order correlations will lead to greater paradigm shifts in the field, addressed in part II, advances from the study of quantum first order correlations are given. In particular, ranging errors are discussed (with remedies) from vacuum fluctuations through the detector port, photon counting errors, and position probability amplitude uncertainty. In addition, the principles of quantum field theory and first order correlations are needed for studying second order correlations in part II.

A Quantum Field Approach for Advancing Optical Coherence Tomography Part I: First Order Correlations, Single Photon Interference, and Quantum Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Brezinski, ME

2018-01-01

Optical coherence tomography has become an important imaging technology in cardiology and ophthalmology, with other applications under investigations. Major advances in optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging are likely to occur through a quantum field approach to the technology. In this paper, which is the first part in a series on the topic, the quantum basis of OCT first order correlations is expressed in terms of full field quantization. Specifically first order correlations are treated as the linear sum of single photon interferences along indistinguishable paths. Photons and the electromagnetic (EM) field are described in terms of quantum harmonic oscillators. While the author feels the study of quantum second order correlations will lead to greater paradigm shifts in the field, addressed in part II, advances from the study of quantum first order correlations are given. In particular, ranging errors are discussed (with remedies) from vacuum fluctuations through the detector port, photon counting errors, and position probability amplitude uncertainty. In addition, the principles of quantum field theory and first order correlations are needed for studying second order correlations in part II.

Mission Plan for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program. Volume I. Part I. Overview and current program plans; Part II. Information required by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The Misson Plan is divided into two parts. Part I describes the overall goals, objectives, and strategy for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste. It explains that, to meet the directives of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the DOE intends to site, design, construct, and start operating a mined geologic repository by January 31, 1998. The Act specifies that the costs of these activities will be borne by the owners and generators of the waste received at the repository. Part I further describes the other components of the waste-management program - monitored retrievable storage, Federal interim storage, and transportation - as well as systems integration activities. Also discussed are institutional plans and activities as well as the program-management system being implemented by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. Part II of the Mission Plan presents the detailed information required by Section 301(a) of the Act - key issues and information needs; plans for obtaining the necessary information; potential financial, institutional, and legal issues; plans for the test and evaluation facility; the principal results obtained to date from site investigations; information on the site-characterization programs; information on the waste package; schedules; costs; and socioeconomic impacts. In accordance with Section 301(a) of the Act, Part II is concerned primarily with the repository program

Learning about Measurement Uncertainties in Secondary Education: A Model of the Subject Matter

Science.gov (United States)

Priemer, Burkhard; Hellwig, Julia

2018-01-01

Estimating measurement uncertainties is important for experimental scientific work. However, this is very often neglected in school curricula and teaching practice, even though experimental work is seen as a fundamental part of teaching science. In order to call attention to the relevance of measurement uncertainties, we developed a comprehensive…

Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

Limited entropic uncertainty as new principle of quantum physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.

2001-01-01

The Uncertainty Principle (UP) of quantum mechanics discovered by Heisenberg, which constitute the corner-stone of quantum physics, asserts that: there is an irreducible lower bound on the uncertainty in the result of a simultaneous measurement of non-commuting observables. In order to avoid this state-dependence many authors proposed to use the information entropy as a measure of the uncertainty instead of above standard quantitative formulation of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. In this paper the Principle of Limited Entropic Uncertainty (LEU-Principle), as a new principle in quantum physics, is proved. Then, consistent experimental tests of the LEU-principle, obtained by using the available 49 sets of the pion-nucleus phase shifts, are presented for both, extensive (q=1) and nonextensive (q=0.5 and q=2.0) cases. Some results obtained by the application of LEU-Principle to the diffraction phenomena are also discussed. The main results and conclusions of our paper can be summarized as follows: (i) We introduced a new principle in quantum physics namely the Principle of Limited Entropic Uncertainty (LEU-Principle). This new principle includes in a more general and exact form not only the old Heisenberg uncertainty principle but also introduce an upper limit on the magnitude of the uncertainty in the quantum physics. The LEU-Principle asserts that: 'there is an irreducible lower bound as well as an upper bound on the uncertainty in the result of a simultaneous measurement of non-commuting observables for any extensive and nonextensive (q ≥ 0) quantum systems'; (ii) Two important concrete realizations of the LEU-Principle are explicitly obtained in this paper, namely: (a) the LEU-inequalities for the quantum scattering of spinless particles and (b) the LEU-inequalities for the diffraction on single slit of width 2a. In particular from our general results, in the limit y → +1 we recover in an exact form all the results previously reported. In our paper an

THE SPECTRUM OF Fe II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nave, Gillian [National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8422 (United States); Johansson, Sveneric, E-mail: gillian.nave@nist.gov [Lund Observatory, University of Lund, Box 43, SE-22100 Lund (Sweden)

2013-01-15

The spectrum of singly ionized iron (Fe II) has been recorded using high-resolution Fourier transform (FT) and grating spectroscopy over the wavelength range 900 A to 5.5 {mu}m. The spectra were observed in high-current continuous and pulsed hollow cathode discharges using FT spectrometers at the Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, AZ and Imperial College, London and with the 10.7 m Normal Incidence Spectrograph at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Roughly 12,900 lines were classified using 1027 energy levels of Fe II that were optimized to measured wavenumbers. The wavenumber uncertainties of lines in the FT spectra range from 10{sup -4} cm{sup -1} for strong lines around 4 {mu}m to 0.05 cm{sup -1} for weaker lines around 1500 A. The wavelength uncertainty of lines in the grating spectra is 0.005 A. The ionization energy of (130,655.4 {+-} 0.4) cm{sup -1} was estimated from the 3d{sup 6}({sup 5}D)5g and 3d{sup 6}({sup 5}D)6h levels.

Quantifying reactor safety margins: Part 1: An overview of the code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.

1988-01-01

In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems (ECCS) entitled ''Emergency Core Cooling System; Revisions to Acceptance Criteria.'' The revised rule states an alternate ECCS performance analysis, based on best-estimate methods, may be used to provide more realistic estimates of plant safety margins, provided the licensee quantifies the uncertainty of the estimates and included that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with prescribed acceptance limits. To support the revised ECCS rule, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated a method called the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. It is an auditable, traceable, and practical method for combining quantitative analyses and expert opinions to arrive at computed values of uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the CSAU evaluation methodology and its application to a postulated cold-leg, large-break loss-of-coolant accident in a Westinghouse four-loop pressurized water reactor with 17 /times/ 17 fuel. The code selected for this demonstration of the CSAU methodology was TRAC-PF1/MOD1, Version 14.3. 23 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Comparison of the GUM and Monte Carlo methods on the flatness uncertainty estimation in coordinate measuring machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jalid Abdelilah

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In engineering industry, control of manufactured parts is usually done on a coordinate measuring machine (CMM, a sensor mounted at the end of the machine probes a set of points on the surface to be inspected. Data processing is performed subsequently using software, and the result of this measurement process either validates or not the conformity of the part. Measurement uncertainty is a crucial parameter for making the right decisions, and not taking into account this parameter can, therefore, sometimes lead to aberrant decisions. The determination of the uncertainty measurement on CMM is a complex task for the variety of influencing factors. Through this study, we aim to check if the uncertainty propagation model developed according to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM approach is valid, we present here a comparison of the GUM and Monte Carlo methods. This comparison is made to estimate a flatness deviation of a surface belonging to an industrial part and the uncertainty associated to the measurement result.

Nuclear power plant simulators for operator licensing and training. Part I. The need for plant-reference simulators. Part II. The use of plant-reference simulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rankin, W.L.; Bolton, P.A.; Shikiar, R.; Saari, L.M.

1984-05-01

Part I of this report presents technical justification for the use of plant-reference simulators in the licensing and training of nuclear power plant operators and examines alternatives to the use of plant-reference simulators. The technical rationale is based on research on the use of simulators in other industries, psychological learning and testing principles, expert opinion and user opinion. Part II discusses the central considerations in using plant-reference simulators for licensing examination of nuclear power plant operators and for incorporating simulators into nuclear power plant training programs. Recommendations are presented for the administration of simulator examinations in operator licensing that reflect the goal of maximizing both reliability and validity in the examination process. A series of organizational tasks that promote the acceptance, use, and effectiveness of simulator training as part of the onsite training program is delineated

Dead layer and active volume determination for GERDA Phase II detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehnert, Bjoern [TU Dresden (Germany); Collaboration: GERDA-Collaboration

2013-07-01

The GERDA experiment investigates the neutrinoless double beta decay of {sup 76}Ge and is currently running Phase I of its physics program. Using the same isotope as the Heidelberg Moscow (HDM) experiment, GERDA aims to directly test the claim of observation by a subset of the HDM collaboration. For the update to Phase II of the experiment in 2013, the collaboration organized the production of 30 new Broad Energy Germanium (BEGe) type detectors from original 35 kg enriched material and tested their performance in the low background laboratory HADES in SCK.CEN, Belgium. With additional 20 kg of detectors, GERDA aims to probe the degenerated hierarchy scenario. One of the crucial detector parameters is the active volume (AV) fraction which directly enters into all physics analysis. This talk presents the methodology of dead layer and AV determination with different calibration sources such as {sup 241}Am, {sup 133}Ba, {sup 60}Co and {sup 228}Th and the results obtained for the new Phase II detectors. Furthermore, the AV fraction turned out to be the largest systematic uncertainty in the analysis of Phase I data which makes it imperative to reduce its uncertainty for Phase II. This talk addresses the major contributions to the AV uncertainty and gives an outlook for improvements in Phase II analysis.

The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puig, Daniel; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Bakhtiari, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic...... forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should...... be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive...

Uncertainty quantification for proton–proton fusion in chiral effective field theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acharya, B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Carlsson, B.D. [Department of Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Ekström, A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Physics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Department of Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Forssén, C. [Department of Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Platter, L., E-mail: lplatter@utk.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Physics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States)

2016-09-10

We compute the S-factor of the proton–proton (pp) fusion reaction using chiral effective field theory (χEFT) up to next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) and perform a rigorous uncertainty analysis of the results. We quantify the uncertainties due to (i) the computational method used to compute the pp cross section in momentum space, (ii) the statistical uncertainties in the low-energy coupling constants of χEFT, (iii) the systematic uncertainty due to the χEFT cutoff, and (iv) systematic variations in the database used to calibrate the nucleon–nucleon interaction. We also examine the robustness of the polynomial extrapolation procedure, which is commonly used to extract the threshold S-factor and its energy-derivatives. By performing a statistical analysis of the polynomial fit of the energy-dependent S-factor at several different energy intervals, we eliminate a systematic uncertainty that can arise from the choice of the fit interval in our calculations. In addition, we explore the statistical correlations between the S-factor and few-nucleon observables such as the binding energies and point-proton radii of {sup 2,3}H and {sup 3}He as well as the D-state probability and quadrupole moment of {sup 2}H, and the β-decay of {sup 3}H. We find that, with the state-of-the-art optimization of the nuclear Hamiltonian, the statistical uncertainty in the threshold S-factor cannot be reduced beyond 0.7%.

Uncertainty Assessment of Space-Borne Passive Soil Moisture Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Quets, Jan; De Lannoy, Gabrielle; Reichle, Rolf; Cosh, Michael; van der Schalie, Robin; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

2017-01-01

The uncertainty associated with passive soil moisture retrieval is hard to quantify, and known to be underlain by various, diverse, and complex causes. Factors affecting space-borne retrieved soil moisture estimation include: (i) the optimization or inversion method applied to the radiative transfer model (RTM), such as e.g. the Single Channel Algorithm (SCA), or the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), (ii) the selection of the observed brightness temperatures (Tbs), e.g. polarization and incidence angle, (iii) the definition of the cost function and the impact of prior information in it, and (iv) the RTM parameterization (e.g. parameterizations officially used by the SMOS L2 and SMAP L2 retrieval products, ECMWF-based SMOS assimilation product, SMAP L4 assimilation product, and perturbations from those configurations). This study aims at disentangling the relative importance of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty, by carrying out soil moisture retrieval experiments, using SMOS Tb observations in different settings, of which some are mentioned above. The ensemble uncertainties are evaluated at 11 reference CalVal sites, over a time period of more than 5 years. These experimental retrievals were inter-compared, and further confronted with in situ soil moisture measurements and operational SMOS L2 retrievals, using commonly used skill metrics to quantify the temporal uncertainty in the retrievals.

Transferring diffractive optics from research to commercial applications: Part II - size estimations for selected markets

Science.gov (United States)

Brunner, Robert

2014-04-01

In a series of two contributions, decisive business-related aspects of the current process status to transfer research results on diffractive optical elements (DOEs) into commercial solutions are discussed. In part I, the focus was on the patent landscape. Here, in part II, market estimations concerning DOEs for selected applications are presented, comprising classical spectroscopic gratings, security features on banknotes, DOEs for high-end applications, e.g., for the semiconductor manufacturing market and diffractive intra-ocular lenses. The derived market sizes are referred to the optical elements, itself, rather than to the enabled instruments. The estimated market volumes are mainly addressed to scientifically and technologically oriented optical engineers to serve as a rough classification of the commercial dimensions of DOEs in the different market segments and do not claim to be exhaustive.

Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty in Medical Reporting: Part 3: Customizable Education, Decision Support, and Automated Alerts.

Science.gov (United States)

Reiner, Bruce I

2017-12-18

In order to better elucidate and understand the causative factors and clinical implications of uncertainty in medical reporting, one must first create a referenceable database which records a number of standardized metrics related to uncertainty language, clinical context, technology, and provider and patient data. The resulting analytics can in turn be used to create context and user-specific reporting guidelines, real-time decision support, educational resources, and quality assurance measures. If this technology can be directly integrated into reporting technology and workflow, the goal is to proactively improve clinical outcomes at the point of care.

Structural and parameteric uncertainty quantification in cloud microphysics parameterization schemes

Science.gov (United States)

van Lier-Walqui, M.; Morrison, H.; Kumjian, M. R.; Prat, O. P.; Martinkus, C.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric model parameterization schemes employ approximations to represent the effects of unresolved processes. These approximations are a source of error in forecasts, caused in part by considerable uncertainty about the optimal value of parameters within each scheme -- parameteric uncertainty. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the best choice of the overarching structure of the parameterization scheme -- structrual uncertainty. Parameter estimation can constrain the first, but may struggle with the second because structural choices are typically discrete. We address this problem in the context of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes by creating a flexible framework wherein structural and parametric uncertainties can be simultaneously constrained. Our scheme makes no assuptions about drop size distribution shape or the functional form of parametrized process rate terms. Instead, these uncertainties are constrained by observations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler within a Bayesian inference framework. Our scheme, the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), has flexibility to predict various sets of prognostic drop size distribution moments as well as varying complexity of process rate formulations. We compare idealized probabilistic forecasts from versions of BOSS with varying levels of structural complexity. This work has applications in ensemble forecasts with model physics uncertainty, data assimilation, and cloud microphysics process studies.

Good Modeling Practice for PAT Applications: Propagation of Input Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist; Eliasson Lantz, Anna

2009-01-01

The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are evaluated for their usefulness as part of the model-building within Process Analytical Technology applications. A mechanistic model describing a batch cultivation of Streptomyces coelicolor for antibiotic production was used as case study. The input...... compared to the large uncertainty observed in the antibiotic and off-gas CO2 predictions. The output uncertainty was observed to be lower during the exponential growth phase, while higher in the stationary and death phases - meaning the model describes some periods better than others. To understand which...... promising for helping to build reliable mechanistic models and to interpret the model outputs properly. These tools make part of good modeling practice, which can contribute to successful PAT applications for increased process understanding, operation and control purposes. © 2009 American Institute...

Adaptive Core Simulation Employing Discrete Inverse Theory - Part II: Numerical Experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Turinsky, Paul J.

2005-01-01

Use of adaptive simulation is intended to improve the fidelity and robustness of important core attribute predictions such as core power distribution, thermal margins, and core reactivity. Adaptive simulation utilizes a selected set of past and current reactor measurements of reactor observables, i.e., in-core instrumentation readings, to adapt the simulation in a meaningful way. The companion paper, ''Adaptive Core Simulation Employing Discrete Inverse Theory - Part I: Theory,'' describes in detail the theoretical background of the proposed adaptive techniques. This paper, Part II, demonstrates several computational experiments conducted to assess the fidelity and robustness of the proposed techniques. The intent is to check the ability of the adapted core simulator model to predict future core observables that are not included in the adaption or core observables that are recorded at core conditions that differ from those at which adaption is completed. Also, this paper demonstrates successful utilization of an efficient sensitivity analysis approach to calculate the sensitivity information required to perform the adaption for millions of input core parameters. Finally, this paper illustrates a useful application for adaptive simulation - reducing the inconsistencies between two different core simulator code systems, where the multitudes of input data to one code are adjusted to enhance the agreement between both codes for important core attributes, i.e., core reactivity and power distribution. Also demonstrated is the robustness of such an application

The uncertainty of reference standards--a guide to understanding factors impacting uncertainty, uncertainty calculations, and vendor certifications.

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma

2009-10-01

Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.

Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redei, Miklos

1987-01-01

The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

Measurement Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Michael

Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Delchini, Marc-Olivier G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Popov, Emilian L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Pointer, William David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Swiler, Laura P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-09-30

Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

2013-01-01

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

Coal-fired power materials - Part II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Viswanathan, V.; Purgert, R.; Rawls, P. [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

2008-09-15

Part 1 discussed some general consideration in selection of alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (USC) coal-fired power plant boilers. This second part covers results reported by the US project consortium, which has extensively evaluated the steamside oxidation, fireside corrosion, and fabricability of the alloys selected for USC plants. 3 figs.

TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHUNG-KUNG LO

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii providing ‘conservative’ bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF that reflect the (limited state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

Dialogue act recognition under uncertainty using Bayesian networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keizer, S.; op den Akker, Hendrikus J.A.

2007-01-01

In this paper we discuss the task of dialogue act recognition as a part of interpreting user utterances in context. To deal with the uncertainty that is inherent in natural language processing in general and dialogue act recognition in particular we use machine learning techniques to train

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

2009-01-01

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Safety aspects of advanced fuels irradiations in EBR-II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehto, W.K.

1975-09-01

Basic safety questions such as MFCI, loss-of-Na bond, pin behavior during design basis transients, and failure propagation were evaluated as they pertain to advanced fuels in EBR-II. With the exception of pin response to the unlikely loss-of-flow transient, the study indicates that irradiation of significant numbers of advanced fueled subassemblies in EBR-II should pose no safety problems. The analysis predicts, however, that Na boiling may occur during the postulated design basis unlikely loss-of-flow transient in subassemblies containing He-bonded fuel pins with the larger fuel-clad gaps. The calculations indicate that coolant temperatures at top of core in the limiting S/A's, containing the He bonded pins, would reach approximately 1480 0 F during the transient without application of uncertainty factors. Inclusion of uncertainties could result in temperature predictions which approach coolant boiling temperatures (1640 0 F). Further analysis of He-bonded pins is being done in this potential problem area, e.g., to apply best estimates of uncertainty factors and to determine the sensitivity of the preliminary results to gap conductance

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

Tobacco control and gender in south-east Asia. Part II: Singapore and Vietnam.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, Martha; Barraclough, Simon

2003-12-01

In the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Region, being born male is the single greatest risk marker for tobacco use. While the literature demonstrates that risks associated with tobacco use may vary according to sex, gender refers to the socially determined roles and responsibilities of men and women, who initiate, continue and quit using tobacco for complex and often different reasons. Cigarette advertising frequently appeals to gender roles. Yet tobacco control policy tends to be gender-blind. Using a broad, gender-sensitivity framework, this contradiction is explored in four Western Pacific countries. Part I of the study presented the rationale, methodology and design of the study, discussed issues surrounding gender and tobacco, and analysed developments in Malaysia and the Philippines (see the previous issue of this journal). Part II deals with Singapore and Vietnam. In all four countries gender was salient for the initiation and maintenance of smoking. Yet, with a few exceptions, gender was largely unrecognized in control policy. Suggestions for overcoming this weakness in order to enhance tobacco control are made.

[Education in our time: competency or aptitude? The case for medicine. Part II].

Science.gov (United States)

Viniegra-Velázquez, Leonardo

Part II is focused on participatory education (PE), a distinctive way to understand and practice education in contrast to passive education. The core of PE is to develop everyone's own cognitive potentialities frequently mutilated, neglected or ignored. Epistemological and experiential basis of PE are defined: the concept of incisive and creative criticism, the idea of knowledge as each person's own construct and life experience as the main focus of reflection and cognition. The PE aims towards individuals with unprecedented cognitive and creative faculties, capable of approaching a more inclusive and hospitable world. The last part criticizes the fact that medical education has remained among the passive education paradigm. The key role of cognitive aptitudes, both methodological and practical (clinical aptitude), in the progress of medical education and practice is emphasized. As a conclusion, the knowhow of education is discussed, aiming towards a better world away from human and planetary degradation. Copyright © 2017 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Stiffnites. Part II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Teresa Pareschi

2011-06-01

Full Text Available

The dynamics of a stiffnite are here inferred. A stiffnite is a sheet-shaped, gravity-driven submarine sediment flow, with a fabric made up of marine ooze. To infer stiffnite dynamics, order of magnitude estimations are used. Field deposits and experiments on materials taken from the literature are also used. Stiffnites can be tens or hundreds of kilometers wide, and a few centimeters/ meters thick. They move on the sea slopes over hundreds of kilometers, reaching submarine velocities as high as 100 m/s. Hard grain friction favors grain fragmentation and formation of triboelectrically electrified particles and triboplasma (i.e., ions + electrons. Marine lipids favor isolation of electrical charges. At first, two basic assumptions are introduced, and checked a posteriori: (a in a flowing stiffnite, magnetic dipole moments develop, with the magnetization proportional to the shear rate. I have named those dipoles as Ambigua. (b Ambigua are ‘vertically frozen’ along stiffnite streamlines. From (a and (b, it follows that: (i Ambigua create a magnetic field (at peak, >1 T. (ii Lorentz forces sort stiffnite particles into two superimposed sheets. The lower sheet, L+, has a sandy granulometry and a net positive electrical charge density. The upper sheet, L–, has a silty muddy granulometry and a net negative electrical charge density; the grains of sheet L– become finer upwards. (iii Faraday forces push ferromagnetic grains towards the base of a stiffnite, so that a peak of magnetic susceptibility characterizes a stiffnite deposit. (iv Stiffnites harden considerably during their motion, due to magnetic confinement. Stiffnite deposits and inferred stiffnite characteristics are compatible with a stable flow behavior against bending, pinch, or other macro instabilities. In the present report, a consistent hypothesis about the nature of Ambigua is provided.

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, G.; Peterson, R.

1996-11-01

Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirchner, G. [Univ. of Bremen (Germany); Peterson, R. [AECL, Chalk River, ON (Canada)] [and others

1996-11-01

Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

The T?lz Temporal Topography Study: Mapping the visual field across the life span. Part II: Cognitive factors shaping visual field maps

OpenAIRE

Poggel, Dorothe A.; Treutwein, Bernhard; Calmanti, Claudia; Strasburger, Hans

2012-01-01

Part I described the topography of visual performance over the life span. Performance decline was explained only partly by deterioration of the optical apparatus. Part II therefore examines the influence of higher visual and cognitive functions. Visual field maps for 95 healthy observers of static perimetry, double-pulse resolution (DPR), reaction times, and contrast thresholds, were correlated with measures of visual attention (alertness, divided attention, spatial cueing), visual search, an...

Influence of measurement uncertainty on classification of thermal environment in buildings according to European Standard EN 15251

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolarik, Jakub; Olesen, Bjarne W.

2015-01-01

European Standard EN 15 251 in its current version does not provide any guidance on how to handle uncertainty of long term measurements of indoor environmental parameters used for classification of buildings. The objective of the study was to analyse the uncertainty for field measurements...... measurements of operative temperature at two measuring points (south/south-west and north/northeast orientation). Results of the present study suggest that measurement uncertainty needs to be considered during assessment of thermal environment in existing buildings. When expanded standard uncertainty was taken...... into account in categorization of thermal environment according to EN 15251, the difference in prevalence of exceeded category limits were up to 17.3%, 8.3% and 2% of occupied hours for category I, II and III respectively....

Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

2016-06-01

Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if other factors are involved. With added experience, uncertainty could be expected to diminish, but perhaps more influential are things like physician confidence, belief in the veracity of what is published, and even one's religious beliefs. In addition, it is plausible that the kind of practice a physician works in can affect the experience of uncertainty. Practicing physicians may not be immediately aware of these effects on how uncertainty is experienced in their clinical decision-making. We asked: (1) Does uncertainty and overconfidence bias decrease with years of practice? (2) What sociodemographic factors are independently associated with less recognition of uncertainty, in particular belief in God or other deity or deities, and how is atheism associated with recognition of uncertainty? (3) Do confidence bias (confidence that one's skill is greater than it actually is), degree of trust in the orthopaedic evidence, and degree of statistical sophistication correlate independently with recognition of uncertainty? We created a survey to establish an overall recognition of uncertainty score (four questions), trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (four questions), confidence bias (three questions), and statistical understanding (six questions). Seven hundred six members of the Science of Variation Group, a collaboration that aims to study variation in the definition and treatment of human illness, were approached to complete our survey. This group represents mainly orthopaedic surgeons specializing in trauma or hand and wrist surgery, practicing in Europe and North America, of whom the majority is involved in teaching. Approximately half of the group has more than 10 years

The design of reliability data bases, part II: competing risk and data compression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.

1996-01-01

Models for analyzing dependent competing risk data are presented. These models are designed to represent interactions of critical failure and maintenance mechanisms responsible for intercepting incipient and degraded failures, and they are fashioned such that the (constant) critical failure rate is identifiable from dependent competing risk data. Uncertainty bounds for the critical failure rate which take modeling uncertainty and statistical fluctuations into account are given

Human-like behavior of robot arms: general considerations and the handwriting task-part II: The robot arm in handwriting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Potkonjak, V.; Kostic, D.; Tzafestas, S.; Popovic, M.; Lazarevic, M.; Djordjevic, G.

2001-01-01

This paper (Part II) investigates the motion of a redundant anthropomorphic arm during the writing task. Two approaches are applied. The first is based on the concept of distributed positioning which is suitable to model the "writing" task before the occurrence of fatigue symptoms. The second

Short stack modeling of degradation in solid oxide fuel cells. Part II. Sensitivity and interaction analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gazzarri, J. I.; Kesler, O.

In the first part of this two-paper series, we presented a numerical model of the impedance behaviour of a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) aimed at simulating the change in the impedance spectrum induced by contact degradation at the interconnect-electrode, and at the electrode-electrolyte interfaces. The purpose of that investigation was to develop a non-invasive diagnostic technique to identify degradation modes in situ. In the present paper, we appraise the predictive capabilities of the proposed method in terms of its robustness to uncertainties in the input parameters, many of which are very difficult to measure independently. We applied this technique to the degradation modes simulated in Part I, in addition to anode sulfur poisoning. Electrode delamination showed the highest robustness to input parameter variations, followed by interconnect oxidation and interconnect detachment. The most sensitive degradation mode was sulfur poisoning, due to strong parameter interactions. In addition, we simulate several simultaneous two-degradation-mode scenarios, assessing the method's capabilities and limitations for the prediction of electrochemical behaviour of SOFC's undergoing multiple simultaneous degradation modes.

Short stack modeling of degradation in solid oxide fuel cells. Part II. Sensitivity and interaction analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gazzarri, J.I. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of British Columbia, 2054-6250 Applied Science Lane, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 (Canada); Kesler, O. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, 5 King' s College Road, Toronto, ON M5S 3G8 (Canada)

2008-01-21

In the first part of this two-paper series, we presented a numerical model of the impedance behaviour of a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) aimed at simulating the change in the impedance spectrum induced by contact degradation at the interconnect-electrode, and at the electrode-electrolyte interfaces. The purpose of that investigation was to develop a non-invasive diagnostic technique to identify degradation modes in situ. In the present paper, we appraise the predictive capabilities of the proposed method in terms of its robustness to uncertainties in the input parameters, many of which are very difficult to measure independently. We applied this technique to the degradation modes simulated in Part I, in addition to anode sulfur poisoning. Electrode delamination showed the highest robustness to input parameter variations, followed by interconnect oxidation and interconnect detachment. The most sensitive degradation mode was sulfur poisoning, due to strong parameter interactions. In addition, we simulate several simultaneous two-degradation-mode scenarios, assessing the method's capabilities and limitations for the prediction of electrochemical behaviour of SOFC's undergoing multiple simultaneous degradation modes. (author)

A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

2017-10-11

A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Absolute Kr I and Kr II transition probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandt, T.; Helbig, V.; Nick, K.P.

1982-01-01

Transition probabilities for 11 KrI and 9 KrII lines between 366.5 and 599.3nm were obtained from measurements with a wall-stabilised arc at atmospheric pressure in pure krypton. The population densities of the excited krypton levels were calculated under the assumption of LTE from electron densities measured by laser interferometry. The uncertainties for the KrI and the KrII data are 15 and 25% respectively. (author)

Calibration of a neutron log in partially saturated media. Part II. Error analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hearst, J.R.; Kasameyer, P.W.; Dreiling, L.A.

1981-01-01

Four sources or error (uncertainty) are studied in water content obtained from neutron logs calibrated in partially saturated media for holes up to 3 m. For this calibration a special facility was built and an algorithm for a commercial epithermal neutron log was developed that obtains water content from count rate, bulk density, and gap between the neutron sonde and the borehole wall. The algorithm contained errors due to the calibration and lack of fit, while the field measurements included uncertainties in the count rate (caused by statistics and a short time constant), gap, and density. There can be inhomogeneity in the material surrounding the borehole. Under normal field conditions the hole-size-corrected water content obtained from such neutron logs can have an uncertainty as large as 15% of its value

Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

Science.gov (United States)

Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Mercado, Lina; Booth, Ben B B; Sitch, Stephen; Harris, Phil P; Cox, Peter M; Jones, Chris D; Betts, Richard A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Harris, Glen R; Collins, Mat; Moorcroft, Paul

2008-05-27

Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the

Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

Evaluating variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessment using SYMBIOSE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon-Cornu, M.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Boyer, P.; Calmon, P.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Mourlon, C.; Nicoulaud, V.; Sy, M.; Gonze, M.A.

2015-01-01

SYMBIOSE is a modelling platform that accounts for variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessments, when simulating the environmental fate of radionuclides and assessing doses to human populations. The default database of SYMBIOSE is partly based on parameter values that are summarized within International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) documents. To characterize uncertainty on the transfer parameters, 331 Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) were defined from the summary statistics provided within the IAEA documents (i.e. sample size, minimal and maximum values, arithmetic and geometric means, standard and geometric standard deviations) and are made available as spreadsheet files. The methods used to derive the PDFs without complete data sets, but merely the summary statistics, are presented. Then, a simple case-study illustrates the use of the database in a second-order Monte Carlo calculation, separating parametric uncertainty and inter-individual variability. - Highlights: • Parametric uncertainty in radioecology was derived from IAEA documents. • 331 Probability Distribution Functions were defined for transfer parameters. • Parametric uncertainty and inter-individual variability were propagated

Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

Science.gov (United States)

Merchant, Christopher J.; Paul, Frank; Popp, Thomas; Ablain, Michael; Bontemps, Sophie; Defourny, Pierre; Hollmann, Rainer; Lavergne, Thomas; Laeng, Alexandra; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Mittaz, Jonathan; Poulsen, Caroline; Povey, Adam C.; Reuter, Max; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Sandven, Stein; Sofieva, Viktoria F.; Wagner, Wolfgang

2017-07-01

error distribution, and the propagation of the uncertainty to the geophysical variable in the CDR accounting for its error correlation properties. Uncertainty estimates can and should be validated as part of CDR validation when possible. These principles are quite general, but the approach to providing uncertainty information appropriate to different ECVs is varied, as confirmed by a brief review across different ECVs in the CCI. User requirements for uncertainty information can conflict with each other, and a variety of solutions and compromises are possible. The concept of an ensemble CDR as a simple means of communicating rigorous uncertainty information to users is discussed. Our review concludes by providing eight concrete recommendations for good practice in providing and communicating uncertainty in EO-based climate data records.

FNR demonstration experiments Part II: Subcadmium neutron flux measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wehe, D.K.; King, J.S.

1983-01-01

The FNR HEU-LEU Demonstration Experiments include a comprehensive set of experiments to identify and quantify significant operational differences between two nuclear fuel enrichments. One aspect of these measurements, the subcadmium flux profiling, is the subject of this paper. The flux profiling effort has been accomplished through foil and wire activations, and by rhodium self-powered neutron detector (SPND) mappings. Within the experimental limitations discussed, the program to measure subcadmium flux profiles, lead to the following conclusions: (1) Replacement of a single fresh HEU element by a fresh LEU element at the center of an equilibrium HEU core produces a local flux depression. The ratio of HEU to LEU local flux is 1.19 ± .036, which is, well within experimental uncertainty, equal to the inverse of the U-235 masses for the two elements. (2) Whole core replacement of a large 38 element equilibrium HEU core by a fresh or nearly unburned LEU core reduces the core flux and raises the flux in both D 2 O and H 2 O reflectors. The reduction in the central core region is 40% to 10.0% for the small fresh 29 element LEU core, and 16% to 18% for a 31 element LEU core 482) with low average burnup 2 O reflector fluxes relative to core fluxes as measured by SPND with a fixed value of sensitivity, are in gross disagreement with the same flux ratios measured by Fe and Rh wire activations. Space dependent refinements of S are calculated to give some improvement in the discrepancy but the major part of the correction remains to be resolved

Tunable, Flexible and Efficient Optimization of Control Pulses for Superconducting Qubits, part II - Applications

Science.gov (United States)

AsséMat, Elie; Machnes, Shai; Tannor, David; Wilhelm-Mauch, Frank

In part I, we presented the theoretic foundations of the GOAT algorithm for the optimal control of quantum systems. Here in part II, we focus on several applications of GOAT to superconducting qubits architecture. First, we consider a control-Z gate on Xmons qubits with an Erf parametrization of the optimal pulse. We show that a fast and accurate gate can be obtained with only 16 parameters, as compared to hundreds of parameters required in other algorithms. We present numerical evidences that such parametrization should allow an efficient in-situ calibration of the pulse. Next, we consider the flux-tunable coupler by IBM. We show optimization can be carried out in a more realistic model of the system than was employed in the original study, which is expected to further simplify the calibration process. Moreover, GOAT reduced the complexity of the optimal pulse to only 6 Fourier components, composed with analytic wrappers.

THE GREEN BANK TELESCOPE H II REGION DISCOVERY SURVEY. III. KINEMATIC DISTANCES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, L. D. [Department of Physics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Bania, T. M. [Institute for Astrophysical Research, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Balser, Dana S. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, 520 Edgemont Road, Charlottesville, VA 22903-2475 (United States); Rood, Robert T., E-mail: Loren.Anderson@mail.wvu.edu [Astronomy Department, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 3818, Charlottesville, VA 22903-0818 (United States)

2012-07-20

Using the H I emission/absorption method, we resolve the kinematic distance ambiguity and derive distances for 149 of 182 (82%) H II regions discovered by the Green Bank Telescope H II Region Discovery Survey (GBT HRDS). The HRDS is an X-band (9 GHz, 3 cm) GBT survey of 448 previously unknown H II regions in radio recombination line and radio continuum emission. Here, we focus on HRDS sources from 67 Degree-Sign {>=} l {>=} 18 Degree-Sign , where kinematic distances are more reliable. The 25 HRDS sources in this zone that have negative recombination line velocities are unambiguously beyond the orbit of the Sun, up to 20 kpc distant. They are the most distant H II regions yet discovered. We find that 61% of HRDS sources are located at the far distance, 31% at the tangent-point distance, and only 7% at the near distance. 'Bubble' H II regions are not preferentially located at the near distance (as was assumed previously) but average 10 kpc from the Sun. The HRDS nebulae, when combined with a large sample of H II regions with previously known distances, show evidence of spiral structure in two circular arc segments of mean Galactocentric radii of 4.25 and 6.0 kpc. We perform a thorough uncertainty analysis to analyze the effect of using different rotation curves, streaming motions, and a change to the solar circular rotation speed. The median distance uncertainty for our sample of H II regions is only 0.5 kpc, or 5%. This is significantly less than the median difference between the near and far kinematic distances, 6 kpc. The basic Galactic structure results are unchanged after considering these sources of uncertainty.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolster, Carl H; Vadas, Peter A

2013-07-01

Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. Although it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study we assessed the effect of model input error on predictions of annual P loss by the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our objectives were (i) to conduct a sensitivity analyses for all APLE input variables to determine which variables the model is most sensitive to, (ii) to determine whether the relatively easy-to-implement first-order approximation (FOA) method provides accurate estimates of model prediction uncertainties by comparing results with the more accurate Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the APLE model against measured P loss data when uncertainties in model predictions and measured data are included. Our results showed that for low to moderate uncertainties in APLE input variables, the FOA method yields reasonable estimates of model prediction uncertainties, although for cases where manure solid content is between 14 and 17%, the FOA method may not be as accurate as the MCS method due to a discontinuity in the manure P loss component of APLE at a manure solid content of 15%. The estimated uncertainties in APLE predictions based on assumed errors in the input variables ranged from ±2 to 64% of the predicted value. Results from this study highlight the importance of including reasonable estimates of model uncertainty when using models to predict P loss. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Reducing uncertainty in wind turbine blade health inspection with image processing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Huiyi

Structural health inspection has been widely applied in the operation of wind farms to find early cracks in wind turbine blades (WTBs). Increased numbers of turbines and expanded rotor diameters are driving up the workloads and safety risks for site employees. Therefore, it is important to automate the inspection process as well as minimize the uncertainties involved in routine blade health inspection. In addition, crack documentation and trending is vital to assess rotor blade and turbine reliability in the 20 year designed life span. A new crack recognition and classification algorithm is described that can support automated structural health inspection of the surface of large composite WTBs. The first part of the study investigated the feasibility of digital image processing in WTB health inspection and defined the capability of numerically detecting cracks as small as hairline thickness. The second part of the study identified and analyzed the uncertainty of the digital image processing method. A self-learning algorithm was proposed to recognize and classify cracks without comparing a blade image to a library of crack images. The last part of the research quantified the uncertainty in the field conditions and the image processing methods.

Reproduction in the space environment: Part II. Concerns for human reproduction

Science.gov (United States)

Jennings, R. T.; Santy, P. A.

1990-01-01

Long-duration space flight and eventual colonization of our solar system will require successful control of reproductive function and a thorough understanding of factors unique to space flight and their impact on gynecologic and obstetric parameters. Part II of this paper examines the specific environmental factors associated with space flight and the implications for human reproduction. Space environmental hazards discussed include radiation, alteration in atmospheric pressure and breathing gas partial pressures, prolonged toxicological exposure, and microgravity. The effects of countermeasures necessary to reduce cardiovascular deconditioning, calcium loss, muscle wasting, and neurovestibular problems are also considered. In addition, the impact of microgravity on male fertility and gamete quality is explored. Due to current constraints, human pregnancy is now contraindicated for space flight. However, a program to explore effective countermeasures to current constraints and develop the required health care delivery capability for extended-duration space flight is suggested. A program of Earth- and space-based research to provide further answers to reproductive questions is suggested.

Mixed ligand complexes of alkaline earth metals: Part XII. Mg(II, Ca(II, Sr(II and Ba(II complexes with 5-chlorosalicylaldehyde and salicylaldehyde or hydroxyaromatic ketones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MITHLESH AGRAWAL

2002-04-01

Full Text Available The reactions of alkaline earth metal chlorides with 5-chlorosalicylaldehyde and salicylaldehyde, 2-hydroxyacetophenone or 2-hydroxypropiophenone have been carried out in 1 : 1 : 1 mole ratio and the mixed ligand complexes of the type MLL’(H2O2 (where M = Mg(II, Ca(II, Sr(II and Ba(II, HL = 5-chlorosalicylaldehyde and HL’ = salicylaldehyde, 2-hydroxyacetophenone or 2-hydroxypropiophenone have been isolated. These complexes were characterized by TLC, conductance measurements, IR and 1H-NMR spectra.

[Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee

2015-04-01

This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.

A real-time assessment of measurement uncertainty in the experimental characterization of sprays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panão, M R O; Moreira, A L N

2008-01-01

This work addresses the estimation of the measurement uncertainty of discrete probability distributions used in the characterization of sprays. A real-time assessment of this measurement uncertainty is further investigated, particularly concerning the informative quality of the measured distribution and the influence of acquiring additional information on the knowledge retrieved from statistical analysis. The informative quality is associated with the entropy concept as understood in information theory (Shannon entropy), normalized by the entropy of the most informative experiment. A new empirical correlation is derived between the error accuracy of a discrete cumulative probability distribution and the normalized Shannon entropy. The results include case studies using: (i) spray impingement measurements to study the applicability of the real-time assessment of measurement uncertainty, and (ii) the simulation of discrete probability distributions of unknown shape or function to test the applicability of the new correlation

The Precautionary Principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2004-01-01

is unhelpful, because lack of significance can be due either to uninformative data or to genuine lack of effect (the Type II error problem). Its inversion, bioequivalence testing, might sometimes be a model for the Precautionary Principle in its ability to "prove the null hypothesis". Current procedures...... for setting safe exposure levels are essentially derived from these classical statistical ideas, and we outline how uncertainties in the exposure and response measurements affect the no observed adverse effect level, the Benchmark approach and the "Hockey Stick" model. A particular problem concerns model...

Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Dittes

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is

Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Schoppa, Lukas; Straub, Daniel

2018-04-01

Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble) is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is robust to moderate changes in

Part II. Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This monograph deals with assessment of radiological health effects of the Chernobyl accident for emergency workers (part 1) and the population of the contaminated areas in Russia (part 2). The Chernobyl emergency workers and people living in the contaminated areas of Russia received much lower doses than the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and it was unclear whether risks of radiation-induced cancers derived with the Japanese data could be extrapolated to the low dose range However, it was predicted as early as in 1990 that the thyroid cancer incidence might be increasing due to incorporated 131 irradiation. What conclusions can be drawn from regarding cancer incidence among emergency workers and residents of the contaminated areas in Russia and the role of the radiation factor on the basis of the registry data? Leukemia incidence. Leukemia incidence is known to be one of principal indications of radiation effects. The radiation risk for leukemias is 3-4 times higher that for solid cancers and its latent period is estimated to be 2-3 years after exposure. Results of the radiation epidemiological studies discussed in this book show that in the worst contaminated Bryansk region the leukemia incidence rate is not higher than in the country in general. Even though some evidence exists for the dose response relationship, the radiation risks appear to be not statistically significant. Since risks of leukemia are known to be higher for those who were children at exposure, long-term epidemiological studies need to be continued. The study of leukemias among emergency workers strongly suggest the existence of dose response relationship. In those who received external doses more than 0.15 Gy the leukemia incidence rate is two time higher and these emergency workers should be referred to as a group of increased radiation risk. Solid cancers. The obtained results provide no evidence to a radiation-induced increase in solid cancers among residents of the contaminated areas

A comparison of numerical solutions of partial differential equations with probabilistic and possibilistic parameters for the quantification of uncertainty in subsurface solute transport.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Li, Hua

2009-11-03

Traditionally, uncertainty in parameters are represented as probabilistic distributions and incorporated into groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. With the advent of newer uncertainty theories, it is now understood that stochastic methods cannot properly represent non random uncertainties. In the groundwater flow and contaminant transport equations, uncertainty in some parameters may be random, whereas those of others may be non random. The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equation (FSPDE) model to simulate conditions where both random and non random uncertainties are involved in groundwater flow and solute transport. Three potential solution techniques namely, (a) transforming a probability distribution to a possibility distribution (Method I) then a FSPDE becomes a fuzzy partial differential equation (FPDE), (b) transforming a possibility distribution to a probability distribution (Method II) and then a FSPDE becomes a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), and (c) the combination of Monte Carlo methods and FPDE solution techniques (Method III) are proposed and compared. The effects of these three methods on the predictive results are investigated by using two case studies. The results show that the predictions obtained from Method II is a specific case of that got from Method I. When an exact probabilistic result is needed, Method II is suggested. As the loss or gain of information during a probability-possibility (or vice versa) transformation cannot be quantified, their influences on the predictive results is not known. Thus, Method III should probably be preferred for risk assessments.

A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Tehranifard, Ali Abbaspour; Yousefpour, Faramarz

2014-01-01

This paper describes a systematic framework for characterizing important phenomena and quantifying the degree of contribution of each parameter to the output in severe accident uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology comprises qualitative as well as quantitative phases. The qualitative part so called Modified PIRT, being a robust process of PIRT for more precise quantification of uncertainties, is a two step process for identifying and ranking based on uncertainty importance in severe accident phenomena. In this process identified severe accident phenomena are ranked according to their effect on the figure of merit and their level of knowledge. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) serves here as a systematic approach for severe accident phenomena ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the severe accident model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. The methodology uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions for this step. The quantitative part utilizes uncertainty importance measures for the quantification of the effect of each input parameter to the output uncertainty. A response surface fitting approach is proposed for estimating associated uncertainties with less calculation cost. The quantitative results are used to plan in reducing epistemic uncertainty in the output variable(s). The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility. - Highlights: • A two stage framework for severe accident uncertainty analysis is proposed. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • Uncertainty importance measure quantitatively calculates effect of each uncertainty source. • Methodology is applied successfully on ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility

Medical Humanities: The Rx for Uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Ofri, Danielle

2017-12-01

While medical students often fear the avalanche of knowledge they are required to learn during training, it is learning to translate that knowledge into wisdom that is the greatest challenge of becoming a doctor. Part of that challenge is learning to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty, a difficult feat for doctors who are taught to question anything that is not evidence based or peer reviewed. The medical humanities specialize in this ambiguity and uncertainty, which are hallmarks of actual clinical practice but rarely addressed in medical education. The humanities also force reflection and contemplation-skills that are crucial to thoughtful decision making and to personal wellness. Beyond that, the humanities add a dose of joy and beauty to a training process that is notoriously frugal in these departments. Well integrated, the humanities can be the key to transforming medical knowledge into clinical wisdom.

Evaluation of uncertainties in irradiated hardware characterization: Final report, September 30, 1986-March 31, 1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedore, N.; Levin, A.; Tuite, P.

1987-10-01

Waste Management Group, Inc. has evaluated the techniques used by industry to characterize and classify irradiated hardware components for disposal. This report describes the current practices used to characterize the radionuclide content of hardware components, identifies the uncertainties associated with the techniques and practices considered, and recommends areas for improvement which could reduce uncertainty. Industry uses two different characterization methods. The first uses a combination of gamma scanning, direct sampling, underwater radiation profiling and radiochemical analysis to determine radionuclide content, while the second uses a form of activation analysis in conjunction with underwater radiation profiling. Both methods employ the determination of Cobalt 60 content, and the determination of scaling factors for hard-to-detect Part 61 radionuclides. The accurate determination of Cobalt-60 is critical since the Part 61 activation product radionuclides which affect Part 61 classification are scaled from Cobalt-60. Current uncertainties in Cobalt-60 determination can be reduced by improving underwater radiation profiling equipment and techniques. The calculational techniques used for activation analysis can also be refined to reduce the uncertainties with Cobalt-60 determination. 33 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs

Introducing uncertainty analysis of nucleation and crystal growth models in Process Analytical Technology (PAT) system design of crystallization processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abdul Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Bin; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist

2013-01-01

This paper presents the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic modelbased process monitoring and control (PAT) system design framework for crystallization processes. For the uncertainty analysis, the Monte Carlo procedure is used to propagate input uncertainty...

30 CFR Appendix II to Subpart D of... - Appendix II to Subpart D of Part 18

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... LABOR TESTING, EVALUATION, AND APPROVAL OF MINING PRODUCTS ELECTRIC MOTOR-DRIVEN MINE EQUIPMENT AND ACCESSORIES Machines Assembled With Certified or Explosion-Proof Components, Field Modifications of Approved Machines, and Permits To Use Experimental Equipment Pt. 18, Subpt. D, App. II Appendix II to Subpart D of...

Uncertainty Assessment: What Good Does it Do? (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Oreskes, N.; Lewandowsky, S.

2013-12-01

The scientific community has devoted considerable time and energy to understanding, quantifying and articulating the uncertainties related to anthropogenic climate change. However, informed decision-making and good public policy arguably rely far more on a central core of understanding of matters that are scientifically well established than on detailed understanding and articulation of all relevant uncertainties. Advocates of vaccination, for example, stress its overall efficacy in preventing morbidity and mortality--not the uncertainties over how long the protective effects last. Advocates for colonoscopy for cancer screening stress its capacity to detect polyps before they become cancerous, with relatively little attention paid to the fact that many, if not most, polyps, would not become cancerous even if left unremoved. So why has the climate science community spent so much time focused on uncertainty? One reason, of course, is that articulation of uncertainty is a normal and appropriate part of scientific work. However, we argue that there is another reason that involves the pressure that the scientific community has experienced from individuals and groups promoting doubt about anthropogenic climate change. Specifically, doubt-mongering groups focus public attention on scientific uncertainty as a means to undermine scientific claims, equating uncertainty with untruth. Scientists inadvertently validate these arguments by agreeing that much of the science is uncertain, and thus seemingly implying that our knowledge is insecure. The problem goes further, as the scientific community attempts to articulate more clearly, and reduce, those uncertainties, thus, seemingly further agreeing that the knowledge base is insufficient to warrant public and governmental action. We refer to this effect as 'seepage,' as the effects of doubt-mongering seep into the scientific community and the scientific agenda, despite the fact that addressing these concerns does little to alter

Orientation and uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

1990-01-01

The authors report on the results of three representative surveys that made a closer inquiry into perceptions and valuations of information and information sources concering Chernobyl. If turns out that the information sources are generally considered little trustworthy. This was generally attributable to the interpretation of the events being tied to attitudes in the atmonic energy issue. The greatest credit was given to television broadcasting. The authors summarize their discourse as follows: There is good reason to interpret the widespread uncertainty after Chernobyl as proof of the fact that large parts of the population are prepared and willing to assume a critical stance towards information and prefer to draw their information from various sources representing different positions. (orig.) [de

Instrument uncertainty predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coutts, D.A.

1991-07-01

The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

2015-04-01

Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

CERN scientists take part in the Tevatron Run II performance review committee

CERN Multimedia

Maximilien Brice

2002-01-01

Tevatron Run II is under way at Fermilab, exploring the high-energy frontier with upgraded detectors that will address some of the biggest questions in particle physics.Until CERN's LHC switches on, the Tevatron proton-antiproton collider is the world's only source of top quarks. It is the only place where we can search for supersymmetry, for the Higgs boson, and for signatures of additional dimensions of space-time. The US Department of Energy (DOE) recently convened a high-level international review committee to examine Fermilab experts' first-phase plans for the accelerator complex. Pictured here with a dipole magnet in CERN's LHC magnet test facility are the four CERN scientists who took part in the DOE's Tevatron review. Left to right: Francesco Ruggiero, Massimo Placidi, Flemming Pedersen, and Karlheinz Schindl. Further information: CERN Courier 43 (1)

Implementing AORN recommended practices for a safe environment of care, part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Lynne

2014-09-01

Construction in and around a working perioperative suite is a challenge beyond merely managing traffic patterns and maintaining the sterile field. The AORN "Recommended practices for a safe environment of care, part II" provides guidance on building design; movement of patients, personnel, supplies, and equipment; environmental controls; safety and security; and control of noise and distractions. Whether the OR suite evolves through construction, reconstruction, or remodeling, a multidisciplinary team of construction experts and health care professionals should create a functional plan and communicate at every stage of the project to maintain a safe environment and achieve a well-designed outcome. Emergency preparedness, a facility-wide security plan, and minimization of noise and distractions in the OR also help enhance the safety of the perioperative environment. Copyright © 2014 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty measurement in the homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification of rice and beans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieisson Pivoto

2016-04-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The study aimed to i quantify the measurement uncertainty in the physical tests of rice and beans for a hypothetical defect, ii verify whether homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification tests of rice and beans is effective to reduce the measurement uncertainty of the process and iii determine whether the increase in size of beans sample increases accuracy and reduces measurement uncertainty in a significant way. Hypothetical defects in rice and beans with different damage levels were simulated according to the testing methodology determined by the Normative Ruling of each product. The homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification of rice and beans are not effective, transferring to the final test result a high measurement uncertainty. The sample size indicated by the Normative Ruling did not allow an appropriate homogenization and should be increased.

Variability and Uncertainties of Key Hydrochemical Parameters for SKB Sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bath, Adrian [Intellisci Ltd, Willoughby on the Wolds, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Hermansson, Hans-Peter [Studsvik Nuclear AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

2006-12-15

The work described in this report is a development of SKI's capability for the review and evaluation of data that will constitute part of SKB's case for selection of a suitable site and application to construct a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The aim has been to integrate a number of different approaches to interpreting and evaluating hydrochemical data, especially with respect to the parameters that matter most in assessing the suitability of a site and in understanding the geochemistry and groundwater conditions at a site. It has been focused on taking an independent view of overall uncertainties in reported data, taking account of analytical, sampling and other random and systematic sources of error. This evaluation was carried out initially with a compilation and general inspection of data from the Simpevarp, Forsmark and Laxemar sites plus data from older 'historical' boreholes in the Aespoe area. That was followed by a more specific interpretation by means of geochemical calculations which test the robustness of certain parameters, namely pH and redox/Eh. Geochemical model calculations have been carried out with widely available computer software. Data sources and their handling were also considered, especially access to SKB's SICADA database. In preparation for the use of geochemical modelling programs and to establish comparability of model results with those reported by SKB, the underlying thermodynamic databases were compared with each other and with other generally accepted databases. Comparisons of log K data for selected solid phases and solution complexes from the different thermodynamic databases were made. In general, there is a large degree of comparability between the databases, but there are some significant, and in a few cases large, differences. The present situation is however adequate for present purposes. The interpretation of redox equilibria is dependent on identifying the relevant solid phases and

Confronting the Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing Using Comprehensive Observational Data

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, J. S.; Regayre, L. A.; Yoshioka, M.; Pringle, K.; Sexton, D.; Lee, L.; Carslaw, K. S.

2017-12-01

The effect of aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the largest uncertainty in the overall radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. In this study, we take advantage of a large perturbed parameter ensemble of simulations from the UK Met Office HadGEM-UKCA model (the aerosol component of the UK Earth System Model) to comprehensively sample uncertainty in aerosol forcing. Uncertain aerosol and atmospheric parameters cause substantial aerosol forcing uncertainty in climatically important regions. As the aerosol radiative forcing itself is unobservable, we investigate the potential for observations of aerosol and radiative properties to act as constraints on the large forcing uncertainty. We test how eight different theoretically perfect aerosol and radiation observations can constrain the forcing uncertainty over Europe. We find that the achievable constraint is weak unless many diverse observations are used simultaneously. This is due to the complex relationships between model output responses and the multiple interacting parameter uncertainties: compensating model errors mean there are many ways to produce the same model output (known as model equifinality) which impacts on the achievable constraint. However, using all eight observable quantities together we show that the aerosol forcing uncertainty can potentially be reduced by around 50%. This reduction occurs as we reduce a large sample of model variants (over 1 million) that cover the full parametric uncertainty to around 1% that are observationally plausible.Constraining the forcing uncertainty using real observations is a more complex undertaking, in which we must account for multiple further uncertainties including measurement uncertainties, structural model uncertainties and the model discrepancy from reality. Here, we make a first attempt to determine the true potential constraint on the forcing uncertainty from our model that is achievable using a comprehensive

Realising the Uncertainty Enabled Model Web

Science.gov (United States)

Cornford, D.; Bastin, L.; Pebesma, E. J.; Williams, M.; Stasch, C.; Jones, R.; Gerharz, L.

2012-12-01

conversion between uncertainty types, and between the spatial / temporal support of service inputs / outputs. Finally we describe the tools being generated within the UncertWeb project, considering three main aspects: i) Elicitation of uncertainties on model inputs. We are developing tools to enable domain experts to provide judgements about input uncertainties from UncertWeb model components (e.g. parameters in meteorological models) which allow panels of experts to engage in the process and reach a consensus view on the current knowledge / beliefs about that parameter or variable. We are developing systems for continuous and categorical variables as well as stationary spatial fields. ii) Visualisation of the resulting uncertain outputs from the end of the workflow, but also at intermediate steps. At this point we have prototype implementations driven by the requirements from the use cases that motivate UncertWeb. iii) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on model outputs. Here we show the design of the overall system we are developing, including the deployment of an emulator framework to allow computationally efficient approaches. We conclude with a summary of the open issues and remaining challenges we are facing in UncertWeb, and provide a brief overview of how we plan to tackle these.

Measurements of downwelling far-infrared radiance during the RHUBC-II campaign at Cerro Toco, Chile and comparisons with line-by-line radiative transfer calculations

Science.gov (United States)

Mast, Jeffrey C.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Cageao, Richard P.; Kratz, David P.; Latvakoski, Harri; Johnson, David G.; Turner, David D.; Mlawer, Eli J.

2017-09-01

Downwelling radiances at the Earth's surface measured by the Far-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Troposphere (FIRST) instrument in an environment with integrated precipitable water (IPW) as low as 0.03 cm are compared with calculated spectra in the far-infrared and mid-infrared. FIRST (a Fourier transform spectrometer) was deployed from August through October 2009 at 5.38 km MSL on Cerro Toco, a mountain in the Atacama Desert of Chile. There FIRST took part in the Radiative Heating in Unexplored Bands Campaign Part 2 (RHUBC-II), the goal of which is the assessment of water vapor spectroscopy. Radiosonde water vapor and temperature vertical profiles are input into the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) to compute modeled radiances. The LBLRTM minus FIRST residual spectrum is calculated to assess agreement. Uncertainties (1-σ) in both the measured and modeled radiances are also determined. Measured and modeled radiances nearly all agree to within combined (total) uncertainties. Features exceeding uncertainties can be corrected into the combined uncertainty by increasing water vapor and model continuum absorption, however this may not be necessary due to 1-σ uncertainties (68% confidence). Furthermore, the uncertainty in the measurement-model residual is very large and no additional information on the adequacy of current water vapor spectral line or continuum absorption parameters may be derived. Similar future experiments in similarly cold and dry environments will require absolute accuracy of 0.1% of a 273 K blackbody in radiance and water vapor accuracy of ∼3% in the profile layers contributing to downwelling radiance at the surface.

Information Theory for Correlation Analysis and Estimation of Uncertainty Reduction in Maps and Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Florian Wellmann

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The quantification and analysis of uncertainties is important in all cases where maps and models of uncertain properties are the basis for further decisions. Once these uncertainties are identified, the logical next step is to determine how they can be reduced. Information theory provides a framework for the analysis of spatial uncertainties when different subregions are considered as random variables. In the work presented here, joint entropy, conditional entropy, and mutual information are applied for a detailed analysis of spatial uncertainty correlations. The aim is to determine (i which areas in a spatial analysis share information, and (ii where, and by how much, additional information would reduce uncertainties. As an illustration, a typical geological example is evaluated: the case of a subsurface layer with uncertain depth, shape and thickness. Mutual information and multivariate conditional entropies are determined based on multiple simulated model realisations. Even for this simple case, the measures not only provide a clear picture of uncertainties and their correlations but also give detailed insights into the potential reduction of uncertainties at each position, given additional information at a different location. The methods are directly applicable to other types of spatial uncertainty evaluations, especially where multiple realisations of a model simulation are analysed. In summary, the application of information theoretic measures opens up the path to a better understanding of spatial uncertainties, and their relationship to information and prior knowledge, for cases where uncertain property distributions are spatially analysed and visualised in maps and models.

Uncertainty, financial development and economic growth : an empirical analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lensink, Robert

1999-01-01

This paper examines whether financial sector development may partly undo growth-reducing effects of policy uncertainty. By performing a cross-country growth regression for the 1970-1995 period I find evidence that countries with a more developed financial sector are better able to nullify the

Reducing uncertainty based on model fitness: Application to a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A weakness of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methodologies is the often subjective definition of prior parameter probability distributions, especially ... The reservoir representing the central part of the wetland, where flood waters separate into several independent distributaries, is a keystone area within the model.

Uncertainty and measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landsberg, P.T.

1990-01-01

This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

All About Dowels - A Review Part II Considerations After Cementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zishan Dangra

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The present review summarizes the published literature examining cementation of the dowel and factors related to it. The peer reviewed English language literature was reviewed from the period 1990 to 2015. Articles were searched in Pubmed/ Medline for the relevant terms. Additional manual searches of some dental journals were also carried out. The original key terms resulted in 228 articles. After applying inclusion criteria, 64 articles remained to be included in part II of this review. Article search indicates that most published literature on dowels are in the form of in vitro analysis. Literature on prefabricated dowel systems far exceeds than the custom cast dowel and newer fibre dowels. Clinical evidence is not sufficient and cannot be used to inform practice confidently. However, within the limitations of this review it is suggested that adhesive fixation is preferred in case of short dowel. Dowel width should be as small as possible. A ferrule of 2 mm has to be provided. Composites have proven to be a good core material provided that adequate tooth structure remained for bonding. Dowel should be inserted if endodontically treated tooth is to be used as abutment for removable partial dentures.

Thinking in nursing education. Part II. A teacher's experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Ironside, P M

1999-01-01

Across academia, educators are investigating teaching strategies that facilitate students' abilities to think critically. Because may these strategies require low teacher-student ratios or sustained involvement over time, efforts to implement them are often constrained by diminishing resources for education, faculty reductions, and increasing number of part-time teachers and students. In nursing, the challenges of teaching and learning critical thinking are compounded by the demands of providing care to patients with increasingly acute and complex problems in a wide variety of settings. To meet these challenges, nurse teachers have commonly used a variety of strategies to teach critical thinking (1). For instance, they often provide students with case studies or simulated clinical situations in classroom and laboratory settings (2). At other times, students are taught a process of critical thinking and given structured clinical assignments, such as care plans or care maps, where they apply this process in anticipating the care a particular patient will require. Accompanying students onto clinical units, teachers typically evaluate critical thinking ability by reviewing a student's preparation prior to the experience and discussing it with the student during the course of the experience. The rationales students provide for particular nursing interventions are taken as evidence of their critical thinking ability. While this approach is commonly thought to be effective, the evolving health care system has placed increased emphasis on community nursing (3,4), where it is often difficult to prespecify learning experiences or to anticipate patient care needs. In addition, teachers are often not able to accompany each student to the clinical site. Thus, the traditional strategies for teaching and learning critical thinking common to hospital-based clinical courses are being challenged, transformed, and extended (5). Part II of this article describes findings that suggest

Socioeconomic Implications of Achieving 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C Climate Targets under Scientific Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Su, X.; Takahashi, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Tanaka, K.; Shiogama, H.; Emori, S.; LIU, J.; Hanasaki, N.; Hijioka, Y.; Masui, T.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainty exists in the temperature projections, including contributions from carbon cycle, climate system and aerosols. For the integrated assessment models (IAMs), like DICE, FUND and PAGE, however, the scientific uncertainties mainly rely on the distribution of (equilibrium) climate sensitivity. This study aims at evaluating the emission pathways by limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC or 1.5 ºC after 2100 considering scientific uncertainties, and exploring how socioeconomic indicators are affected by such scientific uncertainties. We use a stochastic version of the SCM4OPT, with an uncertainty measurement by considering alternative ranges of key parameters. Three climate cases, namely, i) base case of SSP2, ii) limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC after 2100 and iii) limiting temperature increase below 1.5 ºC after 2100, and three types of probabilities - i) >66% probability or likely, ii) >50% probability or more likely than not and iii) the mean of the probability distribution, are considered in the study. The results show that, i) for the 2.0ºC case, the likely CO2 reduction rate in 2100 ranges from 75.5%-102.4%, with mean value of 88.1%, and 93.0%-113.1% (mean 102.5%) for the 1.5ºC case; ii) a likely range of forcing effect is found for the 2.0 ºC case (2.7-3.9 Wm-2) due to scientific uncertainty, and 1.9-3.1 Wm-2 for the 1.5 ºC case; iii) the carbon prices within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 3 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case; iv) the abatement costs within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 4 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case. Nine C4MIP carbon cycle models and nineteen CMIP3 AOGCMs are used to account for the scientific uncertainties, following MAGICC 6.0. These uncertainties will result in a likely radiative forcing range of 6.1-7.5 Wm-2 and a likely temperature increase of 3.1-4.5 ºC in 2100 for the base case of SSP2. If we evaluate the 2 ºC target by limiting the

Mammalian Toxicity of Munition Compounds. Phase II. Effects of Multiple Doses. Part III. 2,6-Dinitrotoluene

Science.gov (United States)

1976-07-01

and the neuromuscular effects in these dogs were not due to hypocalcemia . The lowest serum calcium concen- tration in these dogs was 4.2 meq/liter...motor end plate might produce a local hypocalcemia . Such a mechanism is purely speculative. Qualitatively and quantitavely, most of the effects of 2,6...I ýNw,- -MIM I/ MIDWEST RESEARCH INS14ITUTE H0q .3L I LU -_ MAMMALIAN TOXICITY OF MUNITIONS COMPOUlNDSPHASE II: EFFECTS OF MiULTIPLE DOSES C* •PART

Eigenspace perturbations for structural uncertainty estimation of turbulence closure models

Science.gov (United States)

Jofre, Lluis; Mishra, Aashwin; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-11-01

With the present state of computational resources, a purely numerical resolution of turbulent flows encountered in engineering applications is not viable. Consequently, investigations into turbulence rely on various degrees of modeling. Archetypal amongst these variable resolution approaches would be RANS models in two-equation closures, and subgrid-scale models in LES. However, owing to the simplifications introduced during model formulation, the fidelity of all such models is limited, and therefore the explicit quantification of the predictive uncertainty is essential. In such scenario, the ideal uncertainty estimation procedure must be agnostic to modeling resolution, methodology, and the nature or level of the model filter. The procedure should be able to give reliable prediction intervals for different Quantities of Interest, over varied flows and flow conditions, and at diametric levels of modeling resolution. In this talk, we present and substantiate the Eigenspace perturbation framework as an uncertainty estimation paradigm that meets these criteria. Commencing from a broad overview, we outline the details of this framework at different modeling resolution. Thence, using benchmark flows, along with engineering problems, the efficacy of this procedure is established. This research was partially supported by NNSA under the Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program (PSAAP) II, and by DARPA under the Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) project (technical monitor: Dr Fariba Fahroo).

Modelo computacional para suporte à decisão em áreas irrigadas. Parte II: testes e aplicação Computer model for decision support in irrigated areas. Part II: tests and application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo A. Ferreira

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Apresentou-se, na Parte I desta pesquisa, o desenvolvimento de um modelo computacional denominado MCID, para suporte à tomada de decisão quanto ao planejamento e manejo de projetos de irrigação e/ou drenagem. Objetivou-se, na Parte II, testar e aplicar o MCID. No teste comparativo com o programa DRAINMOD, espaçamentos entre drenos, obtidos com o MCID, foram ligeiramente maiores ou idênticos. Os espaçamentos advindos com o MCID e o DRAINMOD foram consideravelmente maiores que os obtidos por meio de metodologias tradicionais de dimensionamento de sistemas de drenagem. A produtividade relativa total, YRT, obtida com o MCID foi, em geral, inferior à conseguida com o DRAINMOD, devido a diferenças de metodologia ao se estimar a produtividade da cultura em resposta ao déficit hídrico. Na comparação com o programa CROPWAT, obtiveram-se resultados muito próximos para (YRT e evapotranspiração real. O modelo desenvolvido foi aplicado para as condições do Projeto Jaíba, MG, para culturas perenes e anuais cultivadas em diferentes épocas. Os resultados dos testes e aplicações indicaram a potencialidade do MCID como ferramenta de apoio à decisão em projetos de irrigação e/ou drenagem.Part I of this research presented the development of a decision support model, called MCID, for planning and managing irrigation and/or drainage projects. Part II is aimed at testing and applying MCID. In a comparative test with the DRAINMOD model, drain spacings obtained with MCID were slightly larger or identical. The spacings obtained with MCID and DRAINMOD were considerably larger than those obtained through traditional methodologies of design of drainage systems. The relative crop yield (YRT obtained with MCID was, in general, lower than the one obtained with DRAINMOD due to differences in the estimate of crop response to water deficit. In comparison with CROPWAT, very close results for YRT and for actual evapotranspiration were obtained. The

Impact of monovalent cations on soil structure. Part II. Results of two Swiss soils

Science.gov (United States)

Farahani, Elham; Emami, Hojat; Keller, Thomas

2018-01-01

In this study, we investigated the impact of adding solutions with different potassium and sodium concentrations on dispersible clay, water retention characteristics, air permeability, and soil shrinkage behaviour using two agricultural soils from Switzerland with different clay content but similar organic carbon to clay ratio. Three different solutions (including only Na, only K, and the combination of both) were added to soil samples at three different cation ratio of soil structural stability levels, and the soil samples were incubated for one month. Our findings showed that the amount of readily dispersible clay increased with increasing Na concentrations and with increasing cation ratio of soil structural stability. The treatment with the maximum Na concentration resulted in the highest water retention and in the lowest shrinkage capacity. This was was associated with high amounts of readily dispersible clay. Air permeability generally increased during incubation due to moderate wetting and drying cycles, but the increase was negatively correlated with readily dispersible clay. Readily dispersible clay decreased with increasing K, while readily dispersible clay increased with increasing K in Iranian soil (Part I of our study). This can be attributed to the different clay mineralogy of the studied soils (muscovite in Part I and illite in Part II).

Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

Science.gov (United States)

Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

2016-04-01

Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California. Final report, part II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

This report is the second of a two part study addressing the seismic risk or hazard of the special nuclear materials (SNM) facility of the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center at Pleasanton, California. The Part I companion to this report, dated July 31, 1978, presented the seismic hazard at the site that resulted from exposure to earthquakes on the Calaveras, Hayward, San Andreas and, additionally, from smaller unassociated earthquakes that could not be attributed to these specific faults. However, while this study was in progress, certain additional geologic information became available that could be interpreted in terms of the existance of a nearby fault. Although substantial geologic investigations were subsequently deployed, the existance of this postulated fault, called the Verona Fault, remained very controversial. The purpose of the Part II study was to assume the existance of such a capable fault and, under this assumption, to examine the loads that the fault could impose on the SNM facility. This report first reviews the geologic setting with a focus on specifying sufficient geologic parameters to characterize the postulated fault. The report next presents the methodology used to calculate the vibratory ground motion hazard. Because of the complexity of the fault geometry, a slightly different methodology is used here compared to the Part I report. This section ends with the results of the calculation applied to the SNM facility. Finally, the report presents the methodology and results of the rupture hazard calculation

CHILD WELFARE IN CANADA : PART II

OpenAIRE

松本, 眞一; Shinichi, Matsumoto; 桃山学院大学社会学部

2006-01-01

This part study aims to research on the whole aspect of child protection in Canada. And so, this paper consists of five chapters as follows: (1)Canadian history of child protection, (2)definition of child abuse, (3)current situation of child protection in Canada, (4)outline of child protection and treatment, (5)triangular comparison of child protection and prevention in Canada, Australia and England. The first efforts at identifying and combating child abuse occurred in the latter part of the...

Interpretation of the peak areas in gamma-ray spectra that have a large relative uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korun, M.; Maver Modec, P.; Vodenik, B.

2012-01-01

Empirical evidence is provided that the areas of peaks having a relative uncertainty in excess of 30% are overestimated. This systematic influence is of a statistical nature and originates in way the peak-analyzing routine recognizes the small peaks. It is not easy to detect this influence since it is smaller than the peak-area uncertainty. However, the systematic influence can be revealed in repeated measurements under the same experimental conditions, e.g., in background measurements. To evaluate the systematic influence, background measurements were analyzed with the peak-analyzing procedure described by Korun et al. (2008). The magnitude of the influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the peak area and may amount, in the conditions used in the peak analysis, to a factor of 5 at relative uncertainties exceeding 60%. From the measurements, the probability for type-II errors, as a function of the relative uncertainty of the peak area, was extracted. This probability is near zero below an uncertainty of 30% and rises to 90% at uncertainties exceeding 50%. - Highlights: ► A systematic influence affecting small peak areas in gamma-ray spectra is described. ► The influence originates in the peak locating procedure, using a pre-determined sensitivity. ► The predetermined sensitivity makes peak areas with large uncertainties to be overestimated. ► The influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the number of counts in the peak. ► Corrections exceeding a factor of 3 are attained at peak area uncertainties exceeding 60%.

Chemical kinetic model uncertainty minimization through laminar flame speed measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Okjoo; Veloo, Peter S.; Sheen, David A.; Tao, Yujie; Egolfopoulos, Fokion N.; Wang, Hai

2016-01-01

Laminar flame speed measurements were carried for mixture of air with eight C3-4 hydrocarbons (propene, propane, 1,3-butadiene, 1-butene, 2-butene, iso-butene, n-butane, and iso-butane) at the room temperature and ambient pressure. Along with C1-2 hydrocarbon data reported in a recent study, the entire dataset was used to demonstrate how laminar flame speed data can be utilized to explore and minimize the uncertainties in a reaction model for foundation fuels. The USC Mech II kinetic model was chosen as a case study. The method of uncertainty minimization using polynomial chaos expansions (MUM-PCE) (D.A. Sheen and H. Wang, Combust. Flame 2011, 158, 2358–2374) was employed to constrain the model uncertainty for laminar flame speed predictions. Results demonstrate that a reaction model constrained only by the laminar flame speed values of methane/air flames notably reduces the uncertainty in the predictions of the laminar flame speeds of C3 and C4 alkanes, because the key chemical pathways of all of these flames are similar to each other. The uncertainty in model predictions for flames of unsaturated C3-4 hydrocarbons remain significant without considering fuel specific laminar flames speeds in the constraining target data set, because the secondary rate controlling reaction steps are different from those in the saturated alkanes. It is shown that the constraints provided by the laminar flame speeds of the foundation fuels could reduce notably the uncertainties in the predictions of laminar flame speeds of C4 alcohol/air mixtures. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that an accurate prediction of the laminar flame speed of a particular C4 alcohol/air mixture is better achieved through measurements for key molecular intermediates formed during the pyrolysis and oxidation of the parent fuel. PMID:27890938

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Yu, X.; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Ch.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub

2016-01-01

Roč. 90, part B (2016), s. 90-101 ISSN 0098-3004 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Uncertainty * Evapotranspiration * Forest management * PIHM * Biome-BGC Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.533, year: 2016

A novel dose uncertainty model and its application for dose verification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Hosang; Chung Heetaek; Liu Chihray; Palta, Jatinder; Suh, Tae-Suk; Kim, Siyong

2005-01-01

Based on statistical approach, a novel dose uncertainty model was introduced considering both nonspatial and spatial dose deviations. Non-space-oriented uncertainty is mainly caused by dosimetric uncertainties, and space-oriented dose uncertainty is the uncertainty caused by all spatial displacements. Assuming these two parts are independent, dose difference between measurement and calculation is a linear combination of nonspatial and spatial dose uncertainties. Two assumptions were made: (1) the relative standard deviation of nonspatial dose uncertainty is inversely proportional to the dose standard deviation σ, and (2) the spatial dose uncertainty is proportional to the gradient of dose. The total dose uncertainty is a quadratic sum of the nonspatial and spatial uncertainties. The uncertainty model provides the tolerance dose bound for comparison between calculation and measurement. In the statistical uncertainty model based on a Gaussian distribution, a confidence level of 3σ theoretically confines 99.74% of measurements within the bound. By setting the confidence limit, the tolerance bound for dose comparison can be made analogous to that of existing dose comparison methods (e.g., a composite distribution analysis, a γ test, a χ evaluation, and a normalized agreement test method). However, the model considers the inherent dose uncertainty characteristics of the test points by taking into account the space-specific history of dose accumulation, while the previous methods apply a single tolerance criterion to the points, although dose uncertainty at each point is significantly different from others. Three types of one-dimensional test dose distributions (a single large field, a composite flat field made by two identical beams, and three-beam intensity-modulated fields) were made to verify the robustness of the model. For each test distribution, the dose bound predicted by the uncertainty model was compared with simulated measurements. The simulated

Proficiency testing as a basis for estimating uncertainty of measurement: application to forensic alcohol and toxicology quantitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Jack

2010-05-01

While forensic laboratories will soon be required to estimate uncertainties of measurement for those quantitations reported to the end users of the information, the procedures for estimating this have been little discussed in the forensic literature. This article illustrates how proficiency test results provide the basis for estimating uncertainties in three instances: (i) For breath alcohol analyzers the interlaboratory precision is taken as a direct measure of uncertainty. This approach applies when the number of proficiency tests is small. (ii) For blood alcohol, the uncertainty is calculated from the differences between the laboratory's proficiency testing results and the mean quantitations determined by the participants; this approach applies when the laboratory has participated in a large number of tests. (iii) For toxicology, either of these approaches is useful for estimating comparability between laboratories, but not for estimating absolute accuracy. It is seen that data from proficiency tests enable estimates of uncertainty that are empirical, simple, thorough, and applicable to a wide range of concentrations.

Quantum Action Principle with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

OpenAIRE

Gu, Jie

2013-01-01

One of the common features in all promising candidates of quantum gravity is the existence of a minimal length scale, which naturally emerges with a generalized uncertainty principle, or equivalently a modified commutation relation. Schwinger's quantum action principle was modified to incorporate this modification, and was applied to the calculation of the kernel of a free particle, partly recovering the result previously studied using path integral.

Radiotherapy for breast cancer: respiratory and set-up uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saliou, M.G.; Giraud, P.; Simon, L.; Fournier-Bidoz, N.; Fourquet, A.; Dendale, R.; Rosenwald, J.C.; Cosset, J.M.

2005-01-01

Adjuvant Radiotherapy has been shown to significantly reduce locoregional recurrence but this advantage is associated with increased cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidities. All uncertainties inherent to conformal radiation therapy must be identified in order to increase the precision of treatment; misestimation of these uncertainties increases the potential risk of geometrical misses with, as a consequence, under-dosage of the tumor and/or overdosage of healthy tissues. Geometric uncertainties due to respiratory movements or set-up errors are well known. Two strategies have been proposed to limit their effect: quantification of these uncertainties, which are then taken into account in the final calculation of safety margins and/or reduction of respiratory and set-up uncertainties by an efficient immobilization or gating systems. Measured on portal films with two tangential fields. CLD (central lung distance), defined as the distance between the deep field edge and the interior chest wall at the central axis, seems to be the best predictor of set-up uncertainties. Using CLD, estimated mean set-up errors from the literature are 3.8 and 3.2 mm for the systematic and random errors respectively. These depend partly on the type of immobilization device and could be reduced by the use of portal imaging systems. Furthermore, breast is mobile during respiration with motion amplitude as high as 0.8 to 10 mm in the anteroposterior direction. Respiratory gating techniques, currently on evaluation, have the potential to reduce effect of these movements. Each radiotherapy department should perform its own assessments and determine the geometric uncertainties with respect of the equipment used and its particular treatment practices. This paper is a review of the main geometric uncertainties in breast treatment, due to respiration and set-up, and solutions proposed to limit their impact. (author)

Radiation protection instruments based on tissue equivalent proportional counters: Part II of an international intercomparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alberts, W.G.; Dietz, E.; Guldbakke, S.; Kluge, H.; Schumacher, H.

1988-04-01

This report describes the irradiation conditions and procedures of Part II of an international intercomparison of tissue-equivalent proportional counters used for radiation protection measurements. The irradiations took place in monoenergetic reference neutron fields produced by the research reactor and accelerator facilities of the PTB Braunschweig in the range from thermal neutrons to 14.8 MeV. In addition measurements were performed in 60 Co and D 2 O-moderated 252 Cf radiation fields. Prototype instruments from 7 European groups were investigated. The results of the measurements are summarized and compared with the reference data of the irradiations. (orig.) [de

The prediction of creep damage in Type 347 weld metal: part II creep fatigue tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spindler, M.W.

2005-01-01

Calculations of creep damage under conditions of strain control are often carried out using either a time fraction approach or a ductility exhaustion approach. In part I of this paper the rupture strength and creep ductility data for a Type 347 weld metal were fitted to provide the material properties that are used to calculate creep damage. Part II of this paper examines whether the time fraction approach or the ductility exhaustion approach gives the better predictions of creep damage in creep-fatigue tests on the same Type 347 weld metal. In addition, a new creep damage model, which was developed by removing some of the simplifying assumptions that are made in the ductility exhaustion approach, was used. This new creep damage model is a function of the strain rate, stress and temperature and was derived from creep and constant strain rate test data using a reverse modelling technique (see part I of this paper). It is shown that the new creep damage model gives better predictions of creep damage in the creep-fatigue tests than the time fraction and the ductility exhaustion approaches

A comprehensive review and update on the biologic treatment of adult noninfectious uveitis: part II.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyungmin; Bajwa, Asima; Freitas-Neto, Clovis A; Metzinger, Jamie Lynne; Wentworth, Bailey A; Foster, C Stephen

2014-11-01

Treatment of adult, noninfectious uveitis remains a major challenge for ophthalmologists around the world, especially in regard to recalcitrant cases. It is reported to comprise approximately 10% of preventable blindness in the USA. The cause of uveitis can be idiopathic or associated with infectious and systemic disorders. The era of biologic medical therapies provides new options for patients with otherwise treatment-resistant inflammatory eye disease. This two-part review gives a comprehensive overview of the existing medical treatment options for patients with adult, noninfectious uveitis, as well as important advances for the treatment ocular inflammation. Part I covers classic immunomodulation and latest information on corticosteroid therapy. In part II, emerging therapies are discussed, including biologic response modifiers, experimental treatments and ongoing clinical studies for uveitis. The hazard of chronic corticosteroid use in the treatment of adult, noninfectious uveitis is well documented. Corticosteroid-sparing therapies, which offer a very favorable risk-benefit profile when administered properly, should be substituted. Although nothing is currently approved for on-label use in this indication, many therapies, through either translation or novel basic science research, have the potential to fill the currently exposed gaps.

Preliminary Uncertainty Analysis for SMART Digital Core Protection and Monitoring System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, Bon Seung; In, Wang Kee; Hwang, Dae Hyun

2012-01-01

The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) developed on-line digital core protection and monitoring systems, called SCOPS and SCOMS as a part of SMART plant protection and monitoring system. SCOPS simplified the protection system by directly connecting the four RSPT signals to each core protection channel and eliminated the control element assembly calculator (CEAC) hardware. SCOMS adopted DPCM3D method in synthesizing core power distribution instead of Fourier expansion method being used in conventional PWRs. The DPCM3D method produces a synthetic 3-D power distribution by coupling a neutronics code and measured in-core detector signals. The overall uncertainty analysis methodology which is used statistically combining uncertainty components of SMART core protection and monitoring system was developed. In this paper, preliminary overall uncertainty factors for SCOPS/SCOMS of SMART initial core were evaluated by applying newly developed uncertainty analysis method

Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schou, Erik; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2015-01-01

) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty......Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible...... to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief...

Uncertainty in social dilemmas

OpenAIRE

Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

2007-01-01

This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

Uncertainty theory

CERN Document Server

Liu, Baoding

2015-01-01

When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

On the uncertainty inequality as applied to discrete signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. V. Venkatesh

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Given a continuous-time bandlimited signal, the Shannon sampling theorem provides an interpolation scheme for exactly reconstructing it from its discrete samples. We analyze the relationship between concentration (or compactness in the temporal/spectral domains of the (i continuous-time and (ii discrete-time signals. The former is governed by the Heisenberg uncertainty inequality which prescribes a lower bound on the product of effective temporal and spectral spreads of the signal. On the other hand, the discrete-time counterpart seems to exhibit some strange properties, and this provides motivation for the present paper. We consider the following problem: for a bandlimited signal, can the uncertainty inequality be expressed in terms of the samples, using thestandard definitions of the temporal and spectral spreads of the signal? In contrast with the results of the literature, we present a new approach to solve this problem. We also present a comparison of the results obtained using the proposed definitions with those available in the literature.

Forensic Uncertainty Quantification of Explosive Dispersal of Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Kyle; Park, Chanyoung; Haftka, Raphael; Kim, Nam-Ho

2017-06-01

In addition to the numerical challenges of simulating the explosive dispersal of particles, validation of the simulation is often plagued with poor knowledge of the experimental conditions. The level of experimental detail required for validation is beyond what is usually included in the literature. This presentation proposes the use of forensic uncertainty quantification (UQ) to investigate validation-quality experiments to discover possible sources of uncertainty that may have been missed in initial design of experiments or under-reported. The current experience of the authors has found that by making an analogy to crime scene investigation when looking at validation experiments, valuable insights may be gained. One examines all the data and documentation provided by the validation experimentalists, corroborates evidence, and quantifies large sources of uncertainty a posteriori with empirical measurements. In addition, it is proposed that forensic UQ may benefit from an independent investigator to help remove possible implicit biases and increases the likelihood of discovering unrecognized uncertainty. Forensic UQ concepts will be discussed and then applied to a set of validation experiments performed at Eglin Air Force Base. This work was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Advanced Simulation and Computing Program.

The uncertainty processing theory of motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Anselme, Patrick

2010-04-02

Most theories describe motivation using basic terminology (drive, 'wanting', goal, pleasure, etc.) that fails to inform well about the psychological mechanisms controlling its expression. This leads to a conception of motivation as a mere psychological state 'emerging' from neurophysiological substrates. However, the involvement of motivation in a large number of behavioural parameters (triggering, intensity, duration, and directedness) and cognitive abilities (learning, memory, decision, etc.) suggest that it should be viewed as an information processing system. The uncertainty processing theory (UPT) presented here suggests that motivation is the set of cognitive processes allowing organisms to extract information from the environment by reducing uncertainty about the occurrence of psychologically significant events. This processing of information is shown to naturally result in the highlighting of specific stimuli. The UPT attempts to solve three major problems: (i) how motivations can affect behaviour and cognition so widely, (ii) how motivational specificity for objects and events can result from nonspecific neuropharmacological causal factors (such as mesolimbic dopamine), and (iii) how motivational interactions can be conceived in psychological terms, irrespective of their biological correlates. The UPT is in keeping with the conceptual tradition of the incentive salience hypothesis while trying to overcome the shortcomings inherent to this view. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

French RSE-M and RCC-MR code appendices for flaw analysis: Presentation of the fracture parameters calculation-Part II: Cracked plates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marie, S.; Chapuliot, S.; Kayser, Y.; Lacire, M.H.; Drubay, B.; Barthelet, B.; Le Delliou, P.; Rougier, V.; Naudin, C.; Gilles, P.; Triay, M.

2007-01-01

French nuclear codes include flaw assessment procedures: the RSE-M Code 'Rules for In-service Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components' and the RCC-MR code 'Design and Construction rules for mechanical components of FBR nuclear islands and high temperature applications'. An important effort of development of these analytical methods has been made for the last 10 years in the frame of a collaboration between CEA, EDF and AREVA-NP, and in the frame of R and D actions involving CEA and IRSN. These activities have led to a unification of the common methods of the two codes. The calculation of fracture mechanics parameters, and in particular the stress intensity factor K I and the J integral, has been widely developed for industrial configurations. All the developments have been integrated in the 2005 edition of RSE-M and in the 2007 edition of RCC-MR. This series of articles is composed of 5 parts: the first part presents an overview of the methods proposed in the RCC-MR and RSE-M codes. Parts II-IV provide compendia for specific components. The geometries are plates (part II), pipes (part III) and elbows (part IV). Finally, part V presents the validation elements of the methods, with details on the process followed for the development and evaluation of the accuracy of the proposed analytical methods. This second article in the series presents all details for the stress intensity factor and J calculations for cracked plates. General data applicable for all defect geometries are first presented, and then, available defect geometries where compendia for K I and σ ref calculation are provided are given

Experimental programme and analysis, ZENITH II, Core 4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ingram, G.; Sanders, J. E.; Sherwin, J.

1974-10-15

The Phase 3 program of reactor physics experiments on the HTR (or Mk 3 GCR) lattices continued during the first half of 1974 with a study of a series of critical builds in Zenith II aimed at testing predictions of shut-down margins in the local criticality-situations arising during power reactor refueling. The paper describes the experimental program and the subsequent theoretical analysis using methods developed in the United Kingdom for calculating low-enriched uranium HTR fuel systems. The importance of improving the accuracy of predictions of shut-down margins arises from the basic requirement that the core in its most reactive condition and with a specified number of absorbers removed from the array must remain sub-critical with a margin adequate to cover the total uncertainty of +/- 1 Nile (that is, 1 % delta-k). The major uncertainty is that in modelling the complex fuel/absorber configuration, and this is the aspect essentially covered in the Zenith II Core 4 studies.

Moving Beyond 2% Uncertainty: A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

2017-03-08

Remote sensing of wind using lidar is revolutionizing wind energy. However, current generations of wind lidar are ascribed a climatic value of uncertainty, which is based on a poor description of lidar sensitivity to external conditions. In this presentation, we show how it is important to consider the complete lidar measurement process to define the measurement uncertainty, which in turn offers the ability to define a much more granular and dynamic measurement uncertainty. This approach is a progression from the 'white box' lidar uncertainty method.

Compatibility analysis of DUPIC fuel (Part II) - Reactor physics design and analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Chang Joon; Choi, Hang Bok; Rhee, Bo Wook; Roh, Gyu Hong; Kim, Do Hun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

2000-03-01

The compatibility analysis of the DUPIC fuel in a CANDU reactor has been assessed. This study includes the fuel composition adjustment, comparison of lattice properties, performance analysis of reactivity devices, determination of regional over-power (ROP) trip setpoint, and uncertainty estimation of core performance parameters. For the DUPIC fuel composition adjustment, three options have been proposed, which can produce uniform neutronic characteristics of the DUPIC fuel. The lattice analysis has shown that the characteristics of the DUPIC fuel is compatible with those of natural uranium fuel. The reactivity devices of the CANDU-6 reactor maintain their functional requirements even for the DUPIC fuel system. The ROP analysis has shown that the trip setpoint is not sacrificed for the DUPIC fuel system owing to the power shape that enhances more thermal margin. The uncertainty analysis of the core performance parameter has shown that the uncertainty associated with the fuel composition variation is reduced appreciably, which is primarily due to the fuel composition adjustment and secondly the on-power refueling feature and spatial control function of the CANDU reactor. The reactor physics calculation has also shown that it is feasible to use spent PWR fuel directly in CANDU reactors without deteriorating the CANDU-6 core physics design requirements. 29 refs., 67 figs., 60 tabs. (Author)

Terminal altitude maximization for Mars entry considering uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Pingyuan; Zhao, Zeduan; Yu, Zhengshi; Dai, Juan

2018-04-01

Uncertainties present in the Mars atmospheric entry process may cause state deviations from the nominal designed values, which will lead to unexpected performance degradation if the trajectory is designed merely based on the deterministic dynamic model. In this paper, a linear covariance based entry trajectory optimization method is proposed considering the uncertainties presenting in the initial states and parameters. By extending the elements of the state covariance matrix as augmented states, the statistical behavior of the trajectory is captured to reformulate the performance metrics and path constraints. The optimization problem is solved by the GPOPS-II toolbox in MATLAB environment. Monte Carlo simulations are also conducted to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. Primary trading performances between the nominal deployment altitude and its dispersion can be observed by modulating the weights on the dispersion penalty, and a compromised result referring to maximizing the 3σ lower bound of the terminal altitude is achieved. The resulting path constraints also show better satisfaction in a disturbed environment compared with the nominal situation.

Managing project risks and uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike Mentis

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

Digital logic circuit design with ALTERA MAX+PLUS II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Ho; Park, Yong Su; Park, Gun Jong; Lee, Ju Heon

2006-09-01

This book is composed of five parts. The first part has introduction of ALTERA MAX+PLUS II and graphic editor, text editor, compiler, waveform editor simulator and timing analyzer of it. The second part is about direction of digital logic circuit design with training kit. The third part has grammar and practice of VHDL in ALTERA MAX+PLUS II including example and history of VHDL. The fourth part shows the design example of digital logic circuit by VHDL of ALTERA MAX+PLUS II which lists designs of adder and subtractor, code converter, counter, state machine and LCD module. The last part explains design example of digital logic circuit by graphic editor in ALTERA MAX+PLUS II.

Uncertainty associated with the gravimetric measurement of particulate matter concentration in ambient air.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacey, Ronald E; Faulkner, William Brock

2015-07-01

matter (PM) concentrations approach regulatory limits, the uncertainty of the measurement is essential in determining the sample size and the probability of type II errors in hypothesis testing. This is an important factor in determining if ambient PM concentrations exceed regulatory limits. The technique described in this paper can be applied to other measurement systems and is especially useful where there are no methods available to generate these values empirically.

Transposing an active fault database into a fault-based seismic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities - Part 2: Impact of fault parameter uncertainties on a site-specific PSHA exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben, eastern France

Science.gov (United States)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Clément, Christophe; Jomard, Hervé; Baize, Stéphane

2017-09-01

We perform a fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) exercise in the Upper Rhine Graben to quantify the relative influence of fault parameters on the hazard at the Fessenheim nuclear power plant site. Specifically, we show that the potentially active faults described in the companion paper (Jomard et al., 2017, hereafter Part 1) are the dominant factor in hazard estimates at the low annual probability of exceedance relevant for the safety assessment of nuclear installations. Geological information documenting the activity of the faults in this region, however, remains sparse, controversial and affected by a high degree of uncertainty. A logic tree approach is thus implemented to explore the epistemic uncertainty and quantify its impact on the seismic hazard estimates. Disaggregation of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard at a 10 000-year return period shows that the Rhine River fault is the main seismic source controlling the hazard level at the site. Sensitivity tests show that the uncertainty on the slip rate of the Rhine River fault is the dominant factor controlling the variability of the seismic hazard level, greater than the epistemic uncertainty due to ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Uncertainty on slip rate estimates from 0.04 to 0.1 mm yr-1 results in a 40 to 50 % increase in hazard levels at the 10 000-year target return period. Reducing epistemic uncertainty in future fault-based PSHA studies at this site will thus require (1) performing in-depth field studies to better characterize the seismic potential of the Rhine River fault; (2) complementing GMPEs with more physics-based modelling approaches to better account for the near-field effects of ground motion and (3) improving the modelling of the background seismicity. Indeed, in this exercise, we assume that background earthquakes can only host M 6. 0 earthquakes have been recently identified at depth within the Upper Rhine Graben (see Part 1) but are not accounted

Condition trees as a mechanism for communicating the meaning of uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Beven, Keith

2015-04-01

Uncertainty communication for environmental problems is fraught with difficulty for good epistemic reasons. The fact that most sources of uncertainty are subject to, and often dominated by, epistemic uncertainties means that the unthinking use of probability theory might actually be misleading and lead to false inference (even in some cases where the assumptions of a probabilistic error model might seem to be reasonably valid). This therefore creates problems in communicating the meaning of probabilistic uncertainties of model predictions to potential users (there are many examples in hydrology, hydraulics, climate change and other domains). It is suggested that one way of being more explicit about the meaning of uncertainties is to associate each type of application with a condition tree of assumptions that need to be made in producing an estimate of uncertainty. The condition tree then provides a basis for discussion and communication of assumptions about uncertainties with users. Agreement of assumptions (albeit generally at some institutional level) will provide some buy-in on the part of users, and a basis for commissioning of future studies. Even in some relatively well-defined problems, such as mapping flood risk, such a condition tree can be rather extensive, but by making each step in the tree explicit then an audit trail is established for future reference. This can act to provide focus in the exercise of agreeing more realistic assumptions.

Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens

more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column......, the developed methodology can be used to quantify the sensitivity of process design to uncertainties in property estimates; obtain rationally the risk/safety factors in process design; and identify additional experimentation needs in order to reduce most critical uncertainties....

Uncertainties and demonstration of compliance with numerical risk standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.; Cullingford, M.C.

1987-01-01

When dealing with numerical results of a probabilistic risk analysis performed for a complex system, such as a nuclear power plant, one major objective may be to deal with the problem of compliance or non-compliance with a prefixed risk standard. The uncertainties in the risk results associated with the consequences and their probabilities of occurrence may be considered by representing the risk as a risk band. Studying the area and distance between the upper and lower bound of the risk band provides consistent information on the uncertainties in terms of risk, not by means of scalars only but also by real functions. Criteria can be defined for determining compliance with a numerical risk standard, and the 'weighting functional' method, representing a possible tool for testing compliance of risk results, is introduced. By shifting the upper confidence bound due to redefinition, part of the risk band may exceed the standard without changing the underlying results. Using the concept described it is possible to determine the amount of risk, i.e. uncertainty, exceeding the standard. The mathematical treatment of uncertainties therefore allows probabilistic risk assessment results to be compared. A realistic example illustrates the method. (author)

Linear systems with unstructured multiplicative uncertainty: Modeling and robust stability analysis.