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Sample records for parent-of-origin effects risk

  1. The effect of genotypes and parent of origin on cancer risk and age of cancer development in PMS2 mutation carriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suerink, Manon; van der Klift, Heleen M.; ten Broeke, Sanne W.; Dekkers, Olaf M.; Bernstein, Inge; Capella Munar, Gabriel; Gomez Garcia, Encarna; Hoogerbrugge, Nicoline; Letteboer, Tom G. W.; Menko, Fred H.; Lindblom, Annika; Mensenkamp, Arjen; Moller, Pal; van Os, Theo A.; Rahner, Nils; Redeker, Bert J. W.; Olderode, Maran; Spruijt, Liesbeth; Vos, Yvonne J.; Wagner, Anja; Morreau, Hans; Hes, Frederik J.; Vasen, Hans F. A.; Tops, Carli M.; Wijnen, Juul T.; Nielsen, Maartje

    Purpose: Lynch syndrome (LS), a heritable disorder with an increased risk of primarily colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC), can be caused by mutations in the PMS2 gene. We wished to establish whether genotype and/or parent-of-origin effects (POE) explain (part of) the reported

  2. The effect of genotypes and parent of origin on cancer risk and age of cancer development in PMS2 mutation carriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suerink, Manon; van der Klift, Heleen M; Ten Broeke, Sanne W; Dekkers, Olaf M; Bernstein, Inge; Capellá Munar, Gabriel; Gomez Garcia, Encarna; Hoogerbrugge, Nicoline; Letteboer, Tom G W; Menko, Fred H; Lindblom, Annika; Mensenkamp, Arjen; Moller, Pal; van Os, Theo A; Rahner, Nils; Redeker, Bert J W; Olderode, Maran; Spruijt, Liesbeth; Vos, Yvonne J; Wagner, Anja; Morreau, Hans; Hes, Frederik J; Vasen, Hans F A; Tops, Carli M; Wijnen, Juul T; Nielsen, Maartje

    PURPOSE: Lynch syndrome (LS), a heritable disorder with an increased risk of primarily colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC), can be caused by mutations in the PMS2 gene. We wished to establish whether genotype and/or parent-of-origin effects (POE) explain (part of) the reported

  3. The effect of genotypes and parent of origin on cancer risk and age of cancer development in PMS2 mutation carriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suerink, Manon; van der Klift, Heleen M.; ten Broeke, Sanne W.; Dekkers, Olaf M.; Bernstein, Inge; Capellá Munar, Gabriel; Gomez Garcia, Encarna; Hoogerbrugge, Nicoline; Letteboer, Tom G. W.; Menko, Fred H.; Lindblom, Annika; Mensenkamp, Arjen; Moller, Pal; van Os, Theo A.; Rahner, Nils; Redeker, Bert J. W.; Olderode-Berends, M. J. W.; Olderode, Maran; Spruijt, Liesbeth; Vos, Yvonne J.; Wagner, Anja; Morreau, Hans; Hes, Frederik J.; Vasen, Hans F. A.; Tops, Carli M.; Wijnen, Juul T.; Nielsen, Maartje

    2016-01-01

    Lynch syndrome (LS), a heritable disorder with an increased risk of primarily colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC), can be caused by mutations in the PMS2 gene. We wished to establish whether genotype and/or parent-of-origin effects (POE) explain (part of) the reported variability in

  4. The effect of genotypes and parent of origin on cancer risk and age of cancer development in PMS2 mutation carriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suerink, M.; Klift, H.M. van der; Broeke, S.W. ten; Dekkers, O.M.; Bernstein, I.; Capella Munar, G.; Garcia, E.; Hoogerbrugge, N.; Letteboer, T.G.; Menko, F.H.; Lindblom, A.; Mensenkamp, A.; Moller, P.; Os, T.A. van; Rahner, N.; Redeker, B.J.; Olderode-Berends, M.J.; Spruijt, L.; Vos, Y.J.; Wagner, A.; Morreau, H.; Hes, F.J.; Vasen, H.F.A.; Tops, C.M.; Wijnen, J.T.; Nielsen, M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Lynch syndrome (LS), a heritable disorder with an increased risk of primarily colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC), can be caused by mutations in the PMS2 gene. We wished to establish whether genotype and/or parent-of-origin effects (POE) explain (part of) the reported

  5. The effect of genotypes and parent of origin on cancer risk and age of cancer development in PMS2 mutation carriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suerink, Manon; van der Klift, Heleen M; Ten Broeke, Sanne W; Dekkers, Olaf M; Bernstein, Inge; Capellá Munar, Gabriel; Gomez Garcia, Encarna; Hoogerbrugge, Nicoline; Letteboer, Tom G W; Menko, Fred H; Lindblom, Annika; Mensenkamp, Arjen; Moller, Pal; van Os, Theo A; Rahner, Nils; Redeker, Bert J W; Olderode-Berends, M J W; Olderode, Maran; Spruijt, Liesbeth; Vos, Yvonne J; Wagner, Anja; Morreau, Hans; Hes, Frederik J; Vasen, Hans F A; Tops, Carli M; Wijnen, Juul T; Nielsen, Maartje

    2016-04-01

    Lynch syndrome (LS), a heritable disorder with an increased risk of primarily colorectal cancer (CRC) and endometrial cancer (EC), can be caused by mutations in the PMS2 gene. We wished to establish whether genotype and/or parent-of-origin effects (POE) explain (part of) the reported variability in severity of the phenotype. European PMS2 mutation carriers (n = 381) were grouped and compared based on RNA expression and whether the mutation was inherited paternally or maternally. Mutation carriers with loss of RNA expression (group 1) had a significantly lower age at CRC diagnosis (51.1 years vs. 60.0 years, P = 0.035) and a lower age at EC diagnosis (55.8 years vs. 61.0 years, P = 0.2, nonsignificant) compared with group 2 (retention of RNA expression). Furthermore, group 1 showed slightly higher, but nonsignificant, hazard ratios (HRs) for both CRC (HR: 1.31, P = 0.38) and EC (HR: 1.22, P = 0.72). No evidence for a significant parent-of-origin effect was found for either CRC or EC. PMS2 mutation carriers with retention of RNA expression developed CRC 9 years later than those with loss of RNA expression. If confirmed, this finding would justify a delay in surveillance for these cases. Cancer risk was not influenced by a parent-of-origin effect.Genet Med 18 4, 405-409.

  6. Genome wide study of maternal and parent-of-origin effects on the etiology of orofacial clefts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shi, Min; Murray, Jeff; Marazita, Mary L

    2012-01-01

    We performed a genome wide association analysis of maternally-mediated genetic effects and parent-of-origin (POO) effects on risk of orofacial clefting (OC) using over 2,000 case-parent triads collected through an international cleft consortium. We used log-linear regression models to test indivi...... individual SNPs. For SNPs with a P-value...

  7. Parent-of-origin effect in multiple sclerosis: observations from interracial matings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramagopalan, S V; Yee, I M; Dyment, D A; Orton, S-M; Marrie, R A; Sadovnick, A D; Ebers, G C

    2009-08-25

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex neurologic disease with a striking geographical distribution. In Canada, prevalence is high in Caucasians of Northern European ancestry and uncommon in North American Aboriginals, many of whom now have Caucasian admixture. The population-based Canadian Collaborative Project on the Genetic Susceptibility to MS provided the characteristics of 58 individuals with 1 Caucasian and 1 North American Aboriginal parent from a database of 30,000 MS index cases. We found that MS index cases with a Caucasian mother and a North American Aboriginal father had a higher sib recurrence risk and greater F:M sex ratio (p = 0.043) than patients with a North American Aboriginal mother and Caucasian father. Maternal parent-of-origin effects in multiple sclerosis disease etiology previously seen in studies of half-siblings and avuncular pairs are also seen in Caucasian-North American Aboriginal admixture matings and warrant further investigation. A differential influence of maternal risk transmission on the sex ratio of affected offspring is implied. The method of analysis used may have broader implications for detection of parent-of-origin effects in admixture cohorts.

  8. Indications for potential parent-of-origin effects within the FTO gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanshi Liu

    Full Text Available Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS were successfully applied to discover associations with obesity. However, the GWAS design is usually based on unrelated individuals and inheritance information on the parental origin of the alleles is missing. Taking into account parent-of-origin may provide further insights into the genetic mechanisms contributing to obesity. We hypothesized that there may be variants within the robustly replicated fat mass and obesity associated (FTO gene that may confer different risk for obesity depending on transmission from mother or father. Genome-wide genotypes and pedigree information from the Sorbs population were used. Phased genotypes among 525 individuals were generated by AlphaImpute. Subsequently, 22 SNPs within FTO introns 1 to 3 were selected and parent-of-origin specific association analyses were performed using PLINK. Interestingly, we identified several SNPs conferring different genetic effects (P≤0.05 depending on parental origin--among them, rs1861868, rs1121980 and rs9939973 (all in intron 1. To confirm our findings, we investigated the selected variants in 705 German trios comprising an (extremely obese child or adolescent and both parents. Again, we observed evidence for POE effects in intron 2 and 3 (P≤0.05 as indicated by the parental asymmetry test. Our results suggest that the obesity risk transmitted by several FTO variants may depend on the parental origin of the allele. Larger family-based studies are warranted to replicate our findings.

  9. Parent-of-origin effects in SOX2 anophthalmia syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Robert J; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Ragge, Nicola K

    2011-01-01

    Sex determining region Y (SRY)-box 2 (SOX2) anophthalmia syndrome is an autosomal dominant disorder manifesting as severe developmental eye malformations associated with brain, esophageal, genital, and kidney abnormalities. The syndrome is usually caused by de novo mutations or deletions in the transcription factor SOX2. To investigate any potential parental susceptibility factors, we set out to determine the parent of origin of the mutations or deletions, and following this, to determine if birth order or parental age were significant factors, as well as whether mutation susceptibility was related to any sequence variants in cis with the mutant allele. We analyzed 23 cases of de novo disease to determine the parental origin of SOX2 mutations and deletions using informative single nucleotide polymorphisms and a molecular haplotyping approach. We examined parental ages for SOX2 mutation and deletion cases, compared these with the general population, and adjusted for birth order. Although the majority of subjects had mutations or deletions that arose in the paternal germline (5/7 mutation and 5/8 deletion cases), there was no significant paternal bias for new mutations (binomial test, p=0.16) or deletions (binomial test, p=0.22). For both mutation and deletion cases, there was no significant association between any single nucleotide polymorphism allele and the mutant chromosome (p>0.05). Parents of the subjects with mutations were on average older at the birth of the affected child than the general population by 3.8 years (p=0.05) for mothers and 3.3 years (p=0.66) for fathers. Parents of the subjects with deletions were on average younger than the general population by 3.0 years (p=0.17) for mothers and 2.1 years (p=0.19) for fathers. Combining these data, the difference in pattern of parental age between the subjects with deletions and mutations was evident, with a difference of 6.5 years for mothers (p=0.05) and 5.0 years for fathers (p=0.22), with the mothers and

  10. Genome wide study of maternal and parent-of-origin effects on the etiology of orofacial clefts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Min; Murray, Jeffrey C; Marazita, Mary L; Munger, Ronald G; Ruczinski, Ingo; Hetmanski, Jacqueline B; Wu, Tao; Murray, Tanda; Redett, Richard J; Wilcox, Allen J; Lie, Rolv T; Jabs, Ethylin Wang; Wu-Chou, Yah Huei; Chen, Philip K; Wang, Hong; Ye, Xiaoqian; Yeow, Vincent; Chong, Samuel S; Shi, Bing; Christensen, Kaare; Scott, Alan F; Patel, Poorav; Cheah, Felicia; Beaty, Terri H

    2013-01-01

    We performed a genome wide association analysis of maternally-mediated genetic effects and parent-of-origin effects on risk of orofacial clefting using over 2,000 case-parent triads collected through an international cleft consortium. We used log-linear regression models to test individual SNPs. For SNPs with a p-value <10−5 for maternal genotypic effects, we also applied a haplotype-based method, TRIMM, to extract potential information from clusters of correlated SNPs. None of the SNPs were significant at the genome wide level. Our results suggest neither maternal genome nor parent of origin effects play major roles in the etiology of orofacial clefting in our sample. This finding is consistent with previous genetic studies and recent population-based cohort studies in Norway and Denmark, which showed no apparent difference between mother-to-offspring and father-to-offspring recurrence of clefting. We, however, cannot completely rule out maternal genome or parent of origin effects as risk factors because very small effects might not be detectable with our sample size, they may influence risk through interactions with environmental exposures or may act through a more complex network of interacting genes. Thus the most promising SNPs identified by this study may still be worth further investigation. PMID:22419666

  11. Power calculations for likelihood ratio tests for offspring genotype risks, maternal effects, and parent-of-origin (POO) effects in the presence of missing parental genotypes when unaffected siblings are available.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampersaud, E; Morris, R W; Weinberg, C R; Speer, M C; Martin, E R

    2007-01-01

    Genotype-based likelihood-ratio tests (LRT) of association that examine maternal and parent-of-origin effects have been previously developed in the framework of log-linear and conditional logistic regression models. In the situation where parental genotypes are missing, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been incorporated in the log-linear approach to allow incomplete triads to contribute to the LRT. We present an extension to this model which we call the Combined_LRT that incorporates additional information from the genotypes of unaffected siblings to improve assignment of incompletely typed families to mating type categories, thereby improving inference of missing parental data. Using simulations involving a realistic array of family structures, we demonstrate the validity of the Combined_LRT under the null hypothesis of no association and provide power comparisons under varying levels of missing data and using sibling genotype data. We demonstrate the improved power of the Combined_LRT compared with the family-based association test (FBAT), another widely used association test. Lastly, we apply the Combined_LRT to a candidate gene analysis in Autism families, some of which have missing parental genotypes. We conclude that the proposed log-linear model will be an important tool for future candidate gene studies, for many complex diseases where unaffected siblings can often be ascertained and where epigenetic factors such as imprinting may play a role in disease etiology.

  12. Parent of origin, mosaicism, and recurrence risk: probabilistic modeling explains the broken symmetry of transmission genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ian M; Stewart, Jonathan R; James, Regis A; Lupski, James R; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Olofsson, Peter; Shaw, Chad A

    2014-10-02

    Most new mutations are observed to arise in fathers, and increasing paternal age positively correlates with the risk of new variants. Interestingly, new mutations in X-linked recessive disease show elevated familial recurrence rates. In male offspring, these mutations must be inherited from mothers. We previously developed a simulation model to consider parental mosaicism as a source of transmitted mutations. In this paper, we extend and formalize the model to provide analytical results and flexible formulas. The results implicate parent of origin and parental mosaicism as central variables in recurrence risk. Consistent with empirical data, our model predicts that more transmitted mutations arise in fathers and that this tendency increases as fathers age. Notably, the lack of expansion later in the male germline determines relatively lower variance in the proportion of mutants, which decreases with paternal age. Subsequently, observation of a transmitted mutation has less impact on the expected risk for future offspring. Conversely, for the female germline, which arrests after clonal expansion in early development, variance in the mutant proportion is higher, and observation of a transmitted mutation dramatically increases the expected risk of recurrence in another pregnancy. Parental somatic mosaicism considerably elevates risk for both parents. These findings have important implications for genetic counseling and for understanding patterns of recurrence in transmission genetics. We provide a convenient online tool and source code implementing our analytical results. These tools permit varying the underlying parameters that influence recurrence risk and could be useful for analyzing risk in diverse family structures. Copyright © 2014 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A powerful parent-of-origin effects test for qualitative traits on X chromosome in general pedigrees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Qi-Lei; You, Xiao-Ping; Li, Jian-Long; Fung, Wing Kam; Zhou, Ji-Yuan

    2018-01-05

    Genomic imprinting is one of the well-known epigenetic factors causing the association between traits and genes, and has generally been examined by detecting parent-of-origin effects of alleles. A lot of methods have been proposed to test for parent-of-origin effects on autosomes based on nuclear families and general pedigrees. Although these parent-of-origin effects tests on autosomes have been available for more than 15 years, there has been no statistical test developed to test for parent-of-origin effects on X chromosome, until the parental-asymmetry test on X chromosome (XPAT) and its extensions were recently proposed. However, these methods on X chromosome are only applicable to nuclear families and thus are not suitable for general pedigrees. In this article, we propose the pedigree parental-asymmetry test on X chromosome (XPPAT) statistic to test for parent-of-origin effects in the presence of association, which can accommodate general pedigrees. When there are missing genotypes in some pedigrees, we further develop the Monte Carlo pedigree parental-asymmetry test on X chromosome (XMCPPAT) to test for parent-of-origin effects, by inferring the missing genotypes given the observed genotypes based on a Monte Carlo estimation. An extensive simulation study has been carried out to investigate the type I error rates and the powers of the proposed tests. Our simulation results show that the proposed methods control the size well under the null hypothesis of no parent-of-origin effects. Moreover, XMCPPAT substantially outperforms the existing tests and has a much higher power than XPPAT which only uses complete nuclear families (with both parents) from pedigrees. We also apply the proposed methods to analyze rheumatoid arthritis data for their practical use. The proposed XPPAT and XMCPPAT test statistics are valid and powerful in detecting parent-of-origin effects on X chromosome for qualitative traits based on general pedigrees and thus are recommended.

  14. Parent-of-Origin Effects in ADHD: Distinct Influences of Paternal and Maternal ADHD on Neuropsychological Functioning in Offspring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thissen, A.J.A.M.; Rommelse, N.N.J.; Altink, M.E.; Oosterlaan, J.; Buitelaar, J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The authors examined parent-of-origin effects in transmission of ADHD and neuropsychological functioning. Proof of these effects can identify more etiologically homogeneous ADHD subgroups and facilitate genetic studies. Method: The authors included 238 ADHD and 147 control families. ADHD

  15. An efficient study design to test parent-of-origin effects in family trios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiaobo; Chen, Gao; Feng, Rui

    2017-11-01

    Increasing evidence has shown that genes may cause prenatal, neonatal, and pediatric diseases depending on their parental origins. Statistical models that incorporate parent-of-origin effects (POEs) can improve the power of detecting disease-associated genes and help explain the missing heritability of diseases. In many studies, children have been sequenced for genome-wide association testing. But it may become unaffordable to sequence their parents and evaluate POEs. Motivated by the reality, we proposed a budget-friendly study design of sequencing children and only genotyping their parents through single nucleotide polymorphism array. We developed a powerful likelihood-based method, which takes into account both sequence reads and linkage disequilibrium to infer the parental origins of children's alleles and estimate their POEs on the outcome. We evaluated the performance of our proposed method and compared it with an existing method using only genotypes, through extensive simulations. Our method showed higher power than the genotype-based method. When either the mean read depth or the pair-end length was reasonably large, our method achieved ideal power. When single parents' genotypes were unavailable or parental genotypes at the testing locus were not typed, both methods lost power compared with when complete data were available; but the power loss from our method was smaller than the genotype-based method. We also extended our method to accommodate mixed genotype, low-, and high-coverage sequence data from children and their parents. At presence of sequence errors, low-coverage parental sequence data may lead to lower power than parental genotype data. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  16. Epigenetic variation, inheritance, and parent-of-origin effects of cytosine methylation in maize (Zea mays).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauria, Massimiliano; Piccinini, Sara; Pirona, Raul; Lund, Gertrud; Viotti, Angelo; Motto, Mario

    2014-03-01

    Pure epigenetic variation, or epigenetic variation that is independent of genetic context, may provide a mechanism for phenotypic variation in the absence of DNA mutations. To estimate the extent of pure epigenetic variation within and across generations and to identify the DNA regions targeted, a group of eight plants derived from a highly inbred line of maize (Zea mays) was analyzed by the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique. We found that cytosine methylation (mC) differences among individuals accounted for up to 7.4% of CCGG sites investigated by MSAP. Of the differentially methylated fragments (DMFs) identified in the S0 generation, ∼12% were meiotically inherited for at least six generations. We show that meiotically heritable mC variation was consistently generated for an average of 0.5% CCGG sites per generation and that it largely occurred somatically. We provide evidence that mC variation can be established and inherited in a parent-of-origin manner, given that the paternal lineage is more prone to both forward and reverse mC changes. The molecular characterization of selected DMFs revealed that the variation was largely determined by CG methylation changes that map within gene regions. The expression analysis of genes overlapping with DMFs did not reveal an obvious correlation between mC variation and transcription, reinforcing the idea that the primary function of gene-body methylation is not to control gene expression. Because this study focuses on epigenetic variation in field-grown plants, the data presented herein pertain to spontaneous epigenetic changes of the maize genome in a natural context.

  17. Parent-of-origin effects in autism identified through genome-wide linkage analysis of 16,000 SNPs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delphine Fradin

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Autism is a common heritable neurodevelopmental disorder with complex etiology. Several genome-wide linkage and association scans have been carried out to identify regions harboring genes related to autism or autism spectrum disorders, with mixed results. Given the overlap in autism features with genetic abnormalities known to be associated with imprinting, one possible reason for lack of consistency would be the influence of parent-of-origin effects that may mask the ability to detect linkage and association.We have performed a genome-wide linkage scan that accounts for potential parent-of-origin effects using 16,311 SNPs among families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE and the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH autism repository. We report parametric (GH, Genehunter and allele-sharing linkage (Aspex results using a broad spectrum disorder case definition. Paternal-origin genome-wide statistically significant linkage was observed on chromosomes 4 (LOD(GH = 3.79, empirical p<0.005 and LOD(Aspex = 2.96, p = 0.008, 15 (LOD(GH = 3.09, empirical p<0.005 and LOD(Aspex = 3.62, empirical p = 0.003 and 20 (LOD(GH = 3.36, empirical p<0.005 and LOD(Aspex = 3.38, empirical p = 0.006.These regions may harbor imprinted sites associated with the development of autism and offer fruitful domains for molecular investigation into the role of epigenetic mechanisms in autism.

  18. A statistical model for estimating maternal-zygotic interactions and parent-of-origin effects of QTLs for seed development.

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    Yanchun Li

    Full Text Available Proper development of a seed requires coordinated exchanges of signals among the three components that develop side by side in the seed. One of these is the maternal integument that encloses the other two zygotic components, i.e., the diploid embryo and its nurturing annex, the triploid endosperm. Although the formation of the embryo and endosperm contains the contributions of both maternal and paternal parents, maternally and paternally derived alleles may be expressed differently, leading to a so-called parent-of-origin or imprinting effect. Currently, the nature of how genes from the maternal and zygotic genomes interact to affect seed development remains largely unknown. Here, we present a novel statistical model for estimating the main and interaction effects of quantitative trait loci (QTLs that are derived from different genomes and further testing the imprinting effects of these QTLs on seed development. The experimental design used is based on reciprocal backcrosses toward both parents, so that the inheritance of parent-specific alleles could be traced. The computing model and algorithm were implemented with the maximum likelihood approach. The new strategy presented was applied to study the mode of inheritance for QTLs that control endoreduplication traits in maize endosperm. Monte Carlo simulation studies were performed to investigate the statistical properties of the new model with the data simulated under different imprinting degrees. The false positive rate of imprinting QTL discovery by the model was examined by analyzing the simulated data that contain no imprinting QTL. The reciprocal design and a series of analytical and testing strategies proposed provide a standard procedure for genomic mapping of QTLs involved in the genetic control of complex seed development traits in flowering plants.

  19. Preliminary Evidence for Aortopathy and an X-Linked Parent-of-Origin Effect on Aortic Valve Malformation in a Mouse Model of Turner Syndrome

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    Robert B. Hinton

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Turner syndrome (TS, most frequently caused by X-monosomy (45,X, is characterized in part by cardiovascular abnormalities, including aortopathy and bicuspid aortic valve (BAV. There is a need for animal models that recapitulate the cardiovascular manifestations of TS. Extracellular matrix (ECM organization and morphometrics of the aortic valve and proximal aorta were examined in adult 39,XO mice (where the parental origin of the single X was paternal (39,XPO or maternal (39,XMO and 40,XX controls. Aortic valve morphology was normal (tricuspid in all of the 39,XPO and 40,XX mice studied, but abnormal (bicuspid or quadricuspid in 15% of 39,XMO mice. Smooth muscle cell orientation in the ascending aorta was abnormal in all 39,XPO and 39,XMO mice examined, but smooth muscle actin was decreased in 39,XMO mice only. Aortic dilation was present with reduced penetrance in 39,XO mice. The 39,XO mouse demonstrates aortopathy and an X-linked parent-of-origin effect on aortic valve malformation, and the candidate gene FAM9B is polymorphically expressed in control and diseased human aortic valves. The 39,XO mouse model may be valuable for examining the mechanisms underlying the cardiovascular findings in TS, and suggest there are important genetic modifiers on the X chromosome that modulate risk for nonsyndromic BAV and aortopathy.

  20. Joint Analysis of Strain and Parent-of-Origin Effects for Recombinant Inbred Intercrosses Generated from Multiparent Populations with the Collaborative Cross as an Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yanyan; Xiong, Sican; Sun, Wei; Zou, Fei

    2018-02-02

    Multiparent populations (MPP) have become popular resources for complex trait mapping because of their wider allelic diversity and larger population size compared with traditional two-way recombinant inbred (RI) strains. In mice, the collaborative cross (CC) is one of the most popular MPP and is derived from eight genetically diverse inbred founder strains. The strategy of generating RI intercrosses (RIX) from MPP in general and from the CC in particular can produce a large number of completely reproducible heterozygote genomes that better represent the (outbred) human population. Since both maternal and paternal haplotypes of each RIX are readily available, RIX is a powerful resource for studying both standing genetic and epigenetic variations of complex traits, in particular, the parent-of-origin (PoO) effects, which are important contributors to many complex traits. Furthermore, most complex traits are affected by >1 genes, where multiple quantitative trait locus mapping could be more advantageous. In this paper, for MPP-RIX data but taking CC-RIX as a working example, we propose a general Bayesian variable selection procedure to simultaneously search for multiple genes with founder allelic effects and PoO effects. The proposed model respects the complex relationship among RIX samples, and the performance of the proposed method is examined by extensive simulations. Copyright © 2018 Liu et al.

  1. Novel approach identifies SNPs in SLC2A10 and KCNK9 with evidence for parent-of-origin effect on body mass index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clive J Hoggart

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The phenotypic effect of some single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs depends on their parental origin. We present a novel approach to detect parent-of-origin effects (POEs in genome-wide genotype data of unrelated individuals. The method exploits increased phenotypic variance in the heterozygous genotype group relative to the homozygous groups. We applied the method to >56,000 unrelated individuals to search for POEs influencing body mass index (BMI. Six lead SNPs were carried forward for replication in five family-based studies (of ∼4,000 trios. Two SNPs replicated: the paternal rs2471083-C allele (located near the imprinted KCNK9 gene and the paternal rs3091869-T allele (located near the SLC2A10 gene increased BMI equally (beta = 0.11 (SD, P<0.0027 compared to the respective maternal alleles. Real-time PCR experiments of lymphoblastoid cell lines from the CEPH families showed that expression of both genes was dependent on parental origin of the SNPs alleles (P<0.01. Our scheme opens new opportunities to exploit GWAS data of unrelated individuals to identify POEs and demonstrates that they play an important role in adult obesity.

  2. Maternal 5mCpG Imprints at the PARD6G-AS1 and GCSAML Differentially Methylated Regions Are Decoupled From Parent-of-Origin Expression Effects in Multiple Human Tissues

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    Graziela de Sá Machado Araújo

    2018-03-01

    iDMR regulates the tissue-specific, monoallelic expression of ZNF124 but not of OR2L13. We annotated the non-coding epigenomic marks in the two maternal iDMRs using data from the Roadmap Epigenomics project and showed that the PARD6G-AS1 and GCSAML iDMRs achieve contrasting activation and repression chromatin segmentations. Lastly, we found that the maternal 5mCpG imprints are perturbed in several hematopoietic cancers. We conclude that the maternal 5mCpG imprints at PARD6G-AS1 and GCSAML iDMRs are decoupled from parent-of-origin transcriptional expression effects in multiple tissues.

  3. Parent-of-origin effects in Turner Syndrome patients

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jada; Styers, Marshall; Sayres, Melissa Wilson

    2015-01-01

    Turner Syndrome patients have a single X chromosome, without a partner, X or Y. It has been suggested that the inheritance of the maternal X or paternal X may affect the severity of Turner Syndrome, as well as the incidence of mental disorders in Turner Syndrome individuals. Parental imprinting on the X chromosome may lead to different phenotypic variations in Turner Syndrome patients. In this project, we conduct an analysis of the current state of research on Turner Syndrome, and review the ...

  4. Detecting parent of origin and dominant QTL in a two-generation commercial poultry pedigree using variance component methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haley Christopher S

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Variance component QTL methodology was used to analyse three candidate regions on chicken chromosomes 1, 4 and 5 for dominant and parent-of-origin QTL effects. Data were available for bodyweight and conformation score measured at 40 days from a two-generation commercial broiler dam line. One hundred dams were nested in 46 sires with phenotypes and genotypes on 2708 offspring. Linear models were constructed to simultaneously estimate fixed, polygenic and QTL effects. Different genetic models were compared using likelihood ratio test statistics derived from the comparison of full with reduced or null models. Empirical thresholds were derived by permutation analysis. Results Dominant QTL were found for bodyweight on chicken chromosome 4 and for bodyweight and conformation score on chicken chromosome 5. Suggestive evidence for a maternally expressed QTL for bodyweight and conformation score was found on chromosome 1 in a region corresponding to orthologous imprinted regions in the human and mouse. Conclusion Initial results suggest that variance component analysis can be applied within commercial populations for the direct detection of segregating dominant and parent of origin effects.

  5. Hybridization alters spontaneous mutation rates in a parent-of-origin-dependent fashion in Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashir, Tufail; Sailer, Christian; Gerber, Florian; Loganathan, Nitin; Bhoopalan, Hemadev; Eichenberger, Christof; Grossniklaus, Ueli; Baskar, Ramamurthy

    2014-05-01

    Over 70 years ago, increased spontaneous mutation rates were observed in Drosophila spp. hybrids, but the genetic basis of this phenomenon is not well understood. The model plant Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) offers unique opportunities to study the types of mutations induced upon hybridization and the frequency of their occurrence. Understanding the mutational effects of hybridization is important, as many crop plants are grown as hybrids. Besides, hybridization is important for speciation and its effects on genome integrity could be critical, as chromosomal rearrangements can lead to reproductive isolation. We examined the rates of hybridization-induced point and frameshift mutations as well as homologous recombination events in intraspecific Arabidopsis hybrids using a set of transgenic mutation detector lines that carry mutated or truncated versions of a reporter gene. We found that hybridization alters the frequency of different kinds of mutations. In general, Columbia (Col)×Cape Verde Islands and Col×C24 hybrid progeny had decreased T→G and T→A transversion rates but an increased C→T transition rate. Significant changes in frameshift mutation rates were also observed in some hybrids. In Col×C24 hybrids, there is a trend for increased homologous recombination rates, except for the hybrids from one line, while in Col×Cape Verde Islands hybrids, this rate is decreased. The overall genetic distance of the parents had no influence on mutation rates in the progeny, as closely related accessions on occasion displayed higher mutation rates than accessions that are separated farther apart. However, reciprocal hybrids had significantly different mutation rates, suggesting parent-of-origin-dependent effects on the mutation frequency.

  6. Identification of imprinted genes subject to parent-of-origin specific expression in Arabidopsis thaliana seeds

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McKeown, Peter C

    2011-08-12

    Abstract Background Epigenetic regulation of gene dosage by genomic imprinting of some autosomal genes facilitates normal reproductive development in both mammals and flowering plants. While many imprinted genes have been identified and intensively studied in mammals, smaller numbers have been characterized in flowering plants, mostly in Arabidopsis thaliana. Identification of additional imprinted loci in flowering plants by genome-wide screening for parent-of-origin specific uniparental expression in seed tissues will facilitate our understanding of the origins and functions of imprinted genes in flowering plants. Results cDNA-AFLP can detect allele-specific expression that is parent-of-origin dependent for expressed genes in which restriction site polymorphisms exist in the transcripts derived from each allele. Using a genome-wide cDNA-AFLP screen surveying allele-specific expression of 4500 transcript-derived fragments, we report the identification of 52 maternally expressed genes (MEGs) displaying parent-of-origin dependent expression patterns in Arabidopsis siliques containing F1 hybrid seeds (3, 4 and 5 days after pollination). We identified these MEGs by developing a bioinformatics tool (GenFrag) which can directly determine the identities of transcript-derived fragments from (i) their size and (ii) which selective nucleotides were added to the primers used to generate them. Hence, GenFrag facilitates increased throughput for genome-wide cDNA-AFLP fragment analyses. The 52 MEGs we identified were further filtered for high expression levels in the endosperm relative to the seed coat to identify the candidate genes most likely representing novel imprinted genes expressed in the endosperm of Arabidopsis thaliana. Expression in seed tissues of the three top-ranked candidate genes, ATCDC48, PDE120 and MS5-like, was confirmed by Laser-Capture Microdissection and qRT-PCR analysis. Maternal-specific expression of these genes in Arabidopsis thaliana F1 seeds was

  7. Identification of imprinted genes subject to parent-of-origin specific expression in Arabidopsis thaliana seeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wennblom Trevor J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epigenetic regulation of gene dosage by genomic imprinting of some autosomal genes facilitates normal reproductive development in both mammals and flowering plants. While many imprinted genes have been identified and intensively studied in mammals, smaller numbers have been characterized in flowering plants, mostly in Arabidopsis thaliana. Identification of additional imprinted loci in flowering plants by genome-wide screening for parent-of-origin specific uniparental expression in seed tissues will facilitate our understanding of the origins and functions of imprinted genes in flowering plants. Results cDNA-AFLP can detect allele-specific expression that is parent-of-origin dependent for expressed genes in which restriction site polymorphisms exist in the transcripts derived from each allele. Using a genome-wide cDNA-AFLP screen surveying allele-specific expression of 4500 transcript-derived fragments, we report the identification of 52 maternally expressed genes (MEGs displaying parent-of-origin dependent expression patterns in Arabidopsis siliques containing F1 hybrid seeds (3, 4 and 5 days after pollination. We identified these MEGs by developing a bioinformatics tool (GenFrag which can directly determine the identities of transcript-derived fragments from (i their size and (ii which selective nucleotides were added to the primers used to generate them. Hence, GenFrag facilitates increased throughput for genome-wide cDNA-AFLP fragment analyses. The 52 MEGs we identified were further filtered for high expression levels in the endosperm relative to the seed coat to identify the candidate genes most likely representing novel imprinted genes expressed in the endosperm of Arabidopsis thaliana. Expression in seed tissues of the three top-ranked candidate genes, ATCDC48, PDE120 and MS5-like, was confirmed by Laser-Capture Microdissection and qRT-PCR analysis. Maternal-specific expression of these genes in Arabidopsis thaliana F1

  8. Parent-of-origin and trans-generational germline influences on behavioral development: the interacting roles of mothers, fathers, and grandparents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curley, J P; Mashoodh, R

    2010-05-01

    Mothers and fathers do not contribute equally to the development of their offspring. In addition to the differential investment of mothers versus fathers in the rearing of offspring, there are also a number of germline factors that are transmitted unequally from one parent or the other that contribute significantly to offspring development. This article shall review four major sources of such parent-of-origin effects. Firstly, there is increasing evidence that genes inherited on the sex chromosomes including the nonpseudoautosomal part of the Y chromosome that is only inherited from fathers to sons, contribute to brain development and behavior independently of the organizing effects of sex hormones. Secondly, recent work has demonstrated that mitochondrial DNA that is primarily inherited only from mothers may play a much greater than anticipated role in neurobehavioral development. Thirdly, there exists a class of genes known as imprinted genes that are epigenetically silenced when passed on in a parent-of-origin specific manner and have been shown to regulate brain development and a variety of behaviors. Finally, there is converging evidence from several disciplines that environmental variations experienced by mothers and fathers may lead to plasticity in the development and behavior of offspring and that this phenotypic inheritance can be solely transmitted through the germline. Mechanistically, this may be achieved through altered programming within germ cells of the epigenetic status of particular genes such as retrotransposons and imprinted genes or potentially through altered expression of RNAs within gametes.

  9. Parent-of-origin dependent gene-specific knock down in mouse embryos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iqbal, Khursheed; Kues, Wilfried A.; Niemann, Heiner

    2007-01-01

    In mice hemizygous for the Oct4-GFP transgene, the F1 embryos show parent-of-origin dependent expression of the marker gene. F1 embryos with a maternally derived OG2 allele (OG2 mat /-) express GFP in the oocyte and during preimplantation development until the blastocyst stage indicating a maternal and embryonic expression pattern. F1-embryos with a paternally inherited OG2 allele (OG2 pat /-) express GFP from the 4- to 8-cell stage onwards showing only embryonic expression. This allows to study allele specific knock down of GFP expression. RNA interference (RNAi) was highly efficient in embryos with the paternally inherited GFP allele, whereas embryos with the maternally inherited GFP allele showed a delayed and less stringent suppression, indicating that the initial levels of the target transcript and the half life of the protein affect RNAi efficacy. RT-PCR analysis revealed only minimum of GFP mRNA. These results have implications for studies of gene silencing in mammalian embryos

  10. Detection of parent-of-origin effects for quantitative traits using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    However, these methods can only be applied to deal with nuclear families and thus are not suitable for extended pedigrees. ... In addition, the power comparison demonstrates that Q-PPAT() and Q-MCPPAT() for pedigree data are much more powerful than Q-PAT() only using two-generation nuclear families selected ...

  11. Detection of parent-of-origin effects for quantitative traits using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    RESEARCH ARTICLE ... ever, these methods can only be applied to deal with nuclear families and thus are not suitable for ... For qualitative traits and nuclear families, the parental- .... across parents within each mating type, i.e. P(F=f, M=m).

  12. Protection against de novo methylation is instrumental in maintaining parent-of-origin methylation inherited from the gametes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proudhon, Charlotte; Duffié, Rachel; Ajjan, Sophie; Cowley, Michael; Iranzo, Julian; Carbajosa, Guillermo; Saadeh, Heba; Holland, Michelle L; Oakey, Rebecca J; Rakyan, Vardhman K; Schulz, Reiner; Bourc'his, Déborah

    2012-09-28

    Identifying loci with parental differences in DNA methylation is key to unraveling parent-of-origin phenotypes. By conducting a MeDIP-Seq screen in maternal-methylation free postimplantation mouse embryos (Dnmt3L-/+), we demonstrate that maternal-specific methylation exists very scarcely at midgestation. We reveal two forms of oocyte-specific methylation inheritance: limited to preimplantation, or with longer duration, i.e. maternally imprinted loci. Transient and imprinted maternal germline DMRs (gDMRs) are indistinguishable in gametes and preimplantation embryos, however, de novo methylation of paternal alleles at implantation delineates their fates and acts as a major leveling factor of parent-inherited differences. We characterize two new imprinted gDMRs, at the Cdh15 and AK008011 loci, with tissue-specific imprinting loss, again by paternal methylation gain. Protection against demethylation after fertilization has been emphasized as instrumental in maintaining parent-of-origin methylation inherited from the gametes. Here we provide evidence that protection against de novo methylation acts as an equal major pivot, at implantation and throughout life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Parent-of-origin specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche

    OpenAIRE

    Perry, John RB; Day, Felix; Elks, Cathy E; Sulem, Patrick; Thompson, Deborah J; Ferreira, Teresa; He, Chunyan; Chasman, Daniel I; Esko, T?nu; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Albrecht, Eva; Ang, Wei Q; Corre, Tanguy; Cousminer, Diana L; Feenstra, Bjarke

    2014-01-01

    textabstractAge at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using ge...

  14. Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perry, John R. B.; Day, Felix; Elks, Cathy E.

    2014-01-01

    Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-causemortality(1). Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal...

  15. Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.R.B. Perry (John); F.R. Day (Felix); C.E. Elks (Cathy); P. Sulem (Patrick); D. Thompson (Deborah); T. Ferreira (Teresa); C. He (Chunyan); D.I. Chasman (Daniel); T. Esko (Tõnu); G. Thorleifsson (Gudmar); E. Albrecht (Eva); W.Q. Ang (Wei); T. Corre (Tanguy); D.L. Cousminer (Diana); B. Feenstra (Bjarke); N. Franceschini (Nora); A. Ganna (Andrea); A.D. Johnson (Andrew); S. Kjellqvist (Sanela); K.L. Lunetta (Kathryn); G. Mcmahon (George); I.M. Nolte (Ilja); L. Paternoster (Lavinia); E. Porcu (Eleonora); G.D. Smith; L. Stolk (Lisette); A. Teumer (Alexander); N. Tsernikova (Natalia); E. Tikkanen (Emmi); S. Ulivi (Shelia); E.K. Wagner (Erin K.); N. Amin (Najaf); L.J. Bierut (Laura); E.M. Byrne (Enda); J.J. Hottenga (Jouke Jan); D.L. Koller (Daniel); M. Mangino (Massimo); T.H. Pers (Tune); L.M. Yerges-Armstrong (Laura); J.H. Zhao (Jing Hua); I.L. Andrulis (Irene); H. Anton-Culver (Hoda); F. Atsma (Femke); S. Bandinelli (Stefania); M.W. Beckmann (Matthias); J. Benítez (Javier); C. Blomqvist (Carl); S.E. Bojesen (Stig); M.K. Bolla (Manjeet); B. Bonnani (Bernardo); H. Brauch (Hiltrud); H. Brenner (Hermann); J.E. Buring (Julie); J. Chang-Claude (Jenny); S.J. Chanock (Stephen); J. Chen (Jinhui); G. Chenevix-Trench (Georgia); J.M. Collée (Margriet); F.J. Couch (Fergus); D.J. Couper (David); A.D. Coviello (Andrea); A. Cox (Angela); K. Czene (Kamila); P. d' Adamo (Pio); G.D. Smith; I. de Vivo (Immaculata); E.W. Demerath (Ellen); J. Dennis (Joe); P. Devilee (Peter); A.K. Dieffenbach (Aida Karina); A.M. Dunning (Alison); G. Eiriksdottir (Gudny); K. Hagen (Knut); P.A. Fasching (Peter); L. Ferrucci (Luigi); D. Flesch-Janys (Dieter); H. Flyger (Henrik); T. Foroud (Tatiana); L. Franke (Lude); M. Garcia (Melissa); M. García-Closas (Montserrat); F. Geller (Frank); E.J.C. de Geus (Eco); G.G. Giles (Graham); D.F. Gudbjartsson (Daniel); V. Gudnason (Vilmundur); P. Guénel (Pascal); S. Guo (Suiqun); P. Hall (Per); U. Hamann (Ute); R. Haring (Robin); C.A. Hartman (Catharina); A.C. Heath (Andrew); A. Hofman (Albert); M.J. Hooning (Maartje); J.L. Hopper (John); F.B. Hu (Frank); D. Hunter (David); D. Karasik (David); D.P. Kiel (Douglas P.); J.A. Knight (Julia); V-M. Kosma (Veli-Matti); Z. Kutalik (Zoltán); S. Lai (Sandra); D. Lambrechts (Diether); A. Lindblom (Annika); R. Mägi (Reedik); P.K. Magnusson (Patrik); A. Mannermaa (Arto); N.G. Martin (Nicholas); G. Masson (Gisli); P.F. McArdle (Patrick); W.L. McArdle (Wendy); M. Melbye (Mads); K. Michailidou (Kyriaki); E. Mihailov (Evelin); L. Milani (Lili); R.L. Milne (Roger L); H. Nevanlinna (Heli); P. Neven (Patrick); C. Nohr (Christian); A.J. Oldehinkel (Albertine); B.A. Oostra (Ben); A. Palotie (Aarno); M. Peacock (Munro); N.L. Pedersen (Nancy L.); P. Peterlongo (Paolo); J. Peto (Julian); P.D.P. Pharoah (Paul); D.S. Postma (Dirkje); A. Pouta (Anneli); K. Pykäs (Katri); P. Radice (Paolo); S.M. Ring (Susan); F. Rivadeneira Ramirez (Fernando); A. Robino (Antonietta); L.M. Rose (Lynda); A. Rudolph (Anja); V. Salomaa (Veikko); S. Sanna (Serena); D. Schlessinger (David); M.K. Schmidt (Marjanka); M.C. Southey (Mellissa C.); U. Sovio (Ulla); M.J. Stampfer (Meir J.); D. Stöckl (Doris); A.M. Storniolo (Anna M.); N.J. Timpson (Nicholas); J.P. Tyrer (Jonathan); J.A. Visser (Jenny); P. Vollenweider (Peter); H. Völzke (Henry); G. Waeber (Gérard); M. Waldenberger (Melanie); H. Wallaschofski (Henri); Q. Wang (Qing); G.A.H.M. Willemsen (Gonneke); R. Winqvist (Robert); B.H.R. Wolffenbuttel (Bruce H. R.); M.J. Wright (Margaret); D.I. Boomsma (Dorret); M.J. Econs (Michael); K.T. Khaw; R.J.F. Loos (Ruth); M.I. McCarthy (Mark); G.W. Montgomery (Grant); J.P. Rice (John); E.A. Streeten (Elizabeth); U. Thorsteinsdottir (Unnur); C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); B.Z. Alizadeh (Behrooz); S.M. Bergmann (Sven); E.A. Boerwinkle (Eric); H.A. Boyd (Heather); L. Crisponi (Laura); P. Gasparini (Paolo); C. Gieger (Christian); T.B. Harris (Tamara); E. Ingelsson (Erik); M.-R. Jarvelin (Marjo-Riitta); P. Kraft (Peter); D.A. Lawlor (Debbie); A. Metspalu (Andres); C.E. Pennell (Craig); P.M. Ridker (Paul); H. Snieder (Harold); T.I.A. Sørensen; T.D. Spector (Timothy); D.P. Strachan (David P.); A.G. Uitterlinden (André); N.J. Wareham (Nick); E. Widen (Elisabeth); M. Zygmunt (Marek); A. Murray (Anna); D.F. Easton (Douglas); J-A. Zwart (John-Anker); J. Murabito (Joanne); K.K. Ong (Ken K.)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractAge at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and

  16. Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perry, John R. B.; Day, Felix; Elks, Cathy E.; Sulem, Patrick; Thompson, Deborah J.; Ferreira, Teresa; He, Chunyan; Chasman, Daniel I.; Esko, Toenu; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Albrecht, Eva; Ang, Wei Q.; Corre, Tanguy; Cousminer, Diana L.; Feenstra, Bjarke; Franceschini, Nora; Ganna, Andrea; Johnson, Andrew D.; Kjellqvist, Sanela; Lunetta, Kathryn L.; McMahon, George; Nolte, Ilja M.; Paternoster, Lavinia; Porcu, Eleonora; Smith, Albert V.; Stolk, Lisette; Teumer, Alexander; Tsernikova, Natalia; Tikkanen, Emmi; Ulivi, Sheila; Wagner, Erin K.; Amin, Najaf; Bierut, Laura J.; Byrne, Enda M.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Koller, Daniel L.; Mangino, Massimo; Pers, Tune H.; Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M.; Zhao, Jing Hua; Andrulis, Irene L.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Atsma, Femke; Franke, Lude; Hartman, Catharina A.; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Postma, Dirkje S.; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H. R.; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z.; Snieder, Harold

    2014-01-01

    Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-causemortality(1). Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal

  17. Exploration of gene-environment interactions, maternal effects and parent of origin effects in the etiology of hypospadias

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zanden, L.F.M. van der; Galesloot, T.E.; Feitz, W.F.J.; Brouwers, M.M.; Shi, M.; Knoers, N.V.; Franke, B.; Roeleveld, N.; Rooij, I.A.L.M. van

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: Hypospadias is a common congenital malformation of the male external genitalia. Association studies for single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes encoding steroid 5alpha-reductase, estrogen receptors 1 and 2, and activating transcription factor 3 have been equivocal. We examined whether

  18. Molecular diagnosis of Prader-Willi syndrome: Parent-of-origin dependent methylation sites and non-isotopic detection of (CA){sub n} dinucleotide repeat polymorphisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerer, I.; Meiner, V.; Pashut-Lavon, I.; Abeliovich, D.

    1994-08-01

    We describe our experience in the molecular diagnosis of 22 patients suspected of Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) using a DNA probe PW71 (D15S63) which detects a parent-of-origin specific methylated site in the PWS critical region. The cause of the syndrome was determined as deletion or uniparental disomy according to the segregation of (CA){sub n} dinucleotide repeat polymorphisms of the PWS/AS region and more distal markers of chromosome 15. In 10 patients the clinical diagnosis was confirmed by the segregation of (CA){sub n}, probably due to paternal microdeletion in the PWs critical region which did not include the loci D15S97, D15S113, GABRB3, and GABRA5. This case demonstrates the advantage of the DNA probe PW71 in the diagnosis of PWS. 31 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Radiation. Doses, effect, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vapirev, E.; Todorov, P.

    1994-12-01

    This book outlines in a popular form the topic of ionizing radiation impacts on living organisms. It contains data gathered by ICRP for a period of 35 years. The essential dosimetry terms and units are presented. Natural and artificial sources of ionizing radiation are described. Possible biological radiation effects and diseases as a consequence of external and internal irradiation at normal and accidental conditions are considered. An assessment of genetic risk for human populations is presented and the concept of 'acceptable risk' is discussed

  20. Comparative Analysis of WUSCHEL-Related Homeobox Genes Revealed Their Parent-of-Origin and Cell Type-Specific Expression Pattern During Early Embryogenesis in Tobacco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuemei Zhou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available WUSCHEL-related homeobox (WOX gene is a plant-specific clade of homeobox transcription factors. Increasing evidences reveal that WOXs play critical roles in early embryogenesis, which involves zygote development, initiation of zygote division, and apical or basal cell lineage establishment. However, how WOXs regulate these developmental events remains largely unknown, and even detailed expression pattern in gametes and early proembryos is not yet available. Here, 13 WOX family genes were identified in Nicotiana tabacum genome. Comparative analysis of 13 WOX family genes with their homologs in Arabidopsis thaliana reveals relatively conserved expression pattern of WUS and WOX5 in shoot/root apical meristem. Whereas variations were also found, e.g., lacking homolog of WOX8 (a marker for suspensor cell in tobacco genome and the expression of WOX2/WOX9 in both apical cell and basal cell. Transient transcriptional activity analysis revealed that WOXs in WUS clade have repressive activities for their target's transcription, whereas WOXs in ancient and intermediate clade have activation activities, giving a molecular basis for the phylogenetic classification of tobacco WOXs into three major clades. Expression pattern analysis revealed that some WOXs (e.g., WOX 13a expressed in both male and female gametes and some WOXs (e.g., WOX 11 and WOX 13b displayed the characteristics of parent-of-origin genes. Interestingly, some WOXs (e.g., WOX2 and WOX9, which are essential for early embryo patterning, were de novo transcribed in zygote, indicating relevant mechanism for embryo pattern formation is only established in zygote right after fertilization and not carried in by gametes. We also found that most WOXs displayed a stage-specific and cell type-specific expression pattern. Taken together, this work provides a detailed landscape of WOXs in tobacco during fertilization and early embryogenesis, which will facilitate the understanding of their specific roles

  1. Peer effects in risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balsa, Ana I; Gandelman, Néstor; González, Nicolás

    2015-01-01

    We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school-grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers' risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. A new Xist allele driven by a constitutively active promoter is dominated by Xist locus environment and exhibits the parent-of-origin effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amakawa, Yuko; Sakata, Yuka; Hoki, Yuko; Arata, Satoru; Shioda, Seiji; Fukagawa, Tatsuo; Sasaki, Hiroyuki; Sado, Takashi

    2015-12-15

    The dosage difference of X-linked genes between the sexes in mammals is compensated for by genetic inactivation of one of the X chromosomes in XX females. A noncoding RNA transcribed from the Xist gene at the onset of X chromosome inactivation coats the X chromosome in cis and induces chromosome-wide heterochromatinization. Here, we report a new Xist allele (Xist(CAG)) driven by a CAG promoter, which is known to be constitutively active in many types of cells. The paternal transmission of Xist(CAG) resulted in the preferential inactivation of the targeted paternal X (Xp) not only in the extra-embryonic but also the embryonic lineage, whereas maternal transmission ended with embryonic lethality at the early postimplantation stage with a phenotype that resembled mutant embryos carrying a maternal deficiency in Tsix, an antisense negative regulator of Xist, in both sexes. Interestingly, we found that the upregulation of Xist(CAG) in preimplantation embryos temporally differed depending on its parental origin: its expression started at the 4- to 8-cell stages when paternally inherited, and Xist(CAG) was upregulated at the blastocyst stage when maternally inherited. This might indicate that the Xist locus on Xp is permissive to transcription, but the Xist locus on the maternal X (Xm) is not. We extrapolated from these findings that the maternal Xist allele might manifest a chromatin structure inaccessible by transcription factors relative to the paternal allele. This might underlie the mechanism for the maternal repression of Xist at the early cleavage stage when Tsix expression has not yet occurred on Xm. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  3. Bracketing effects on risk tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ester Moher

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that risk tolerance increases when multiple decisions and associated outcomes are presented together in a broader ``bracket'' rather than one at a time. The present studies disentangle the influence of problem bracketing (presenting multiple investment options together from that of outcome bracketing (presenting the aggregated outcomes of multiple decisions, factors which have been deliberately confounded in previous research. In the standard version of the bracketing task, in which participants decide how much of an initial endowment to invest into each in a series of repeated, identical gambles, we find a problem bracketing effect but not an outcome bracketing effect. However, this pattern of results does not generalize to the cases of non-identical gambles nor discrete choice, where we fail to find the standard bracketing effect.

  4. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Risk Reducing Effect of AIS Implementation on Collision Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2003-01-01

    AIS (Automatic Identification System) is a transponder system developed for sea traffic purposes. The system sends and receives important ship information and other safety-related information between other ships and shore-based AIS stations. The implementation of AIS has now been initiated and......, as a result, the community will undoubtedly observe an increase in navigational safety. However, to the authors? knowledge, no study has so far rigorously quantified the risk reducing effect of using AIS as an integrated part of the navigational system. The objective of this study is to fill this gap....... The risk reducing effect of AIS is quantified by building a Bayesian network facilitating an evaluation of the effect of AIS on the navigational officer?s reaction ability in a potential, critical collision situation. The time-dependent change in the risk reducing effect on ship collisions is analysed...

  6. Radon risk: the polonium effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradel, J.

    2003-01-01

    The atoms of radon present in the earth's crust give after disintegration atoms of polonium 210 and lead 210 having a strong toxicity by ingestion ( superior of a factor 2 to 10 comparatively to plutonium 239). We have to remember that polonium and lead 210 are present everywhere in very important quantities relatively to values quoted for ground pollution. This must reassure us for the risks run from the nuclear facilities for which important efforts are made in matter of radiation protection. (N.C.)

  7. Radiation effects and radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lengfelder, E.; Forst, D.; Feist, H.; Pratzel, H.

    1988-01-01

    The book presents the facts and the principles of assessment and evaluation of biological radiation effects in general and also with particular reference to the reactor accident of Chernobyl, reviewing the consequences and the environmental situation on the basis of current national and international literature, including research work by the authors. The material compiled in this book is intended especially for physicians, but will also prove useful for persons working in the public health services, in administration, or other services taking care of people. The authors tried to find an easily comprehensible way of presenting and explaining the very complex processes and mechanisms of biological radiation effects and carcinogenesis, displaying the physical primary processes and the mechanisms of the molecular radiation effects up to the effects of low-level radiation, and present results of comparative epidemiologic studies. This section has been given considerable space, in proportion to its significance. It also contains literature references for further reading, offering more insight and knowledge of aspects of special subject fields. The authors also present less known results and data and discuss them against the background of well-known research results and approaches. Apart from the purpose of presenting comprehensive information, the authors intend to give an impact for further thinking about the problems, and helpful tools for independent decisions and action on the basis of improved insight and assessment, and in this context particularly point to the problems induced by the Chernobyl reactor accident. (orig./MG) With 8 maps in appendix [de

  8. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  9. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  10. Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

  11. Effects of economic interactions on credit risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatchett, J P L; Kuehn, R

    2006-01-01

    We study a credit-risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative and competitive business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the value at risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts

  12. Radiation effects, nuclear energy and comparative risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinath, D.V.

    2007-01-01

    Nuclear energy had a promising start as an unlimited, inexpensive and environmentally benign source of energy for electricity generation. However, over the decades its growth was severely retarded due to concerns about its possible detrimental effects on the well-being of mankind and the environment. Since such concerns are essentially due to the gigantic magnitude of radioactivity and ionizing radiations associated with nuclear energy, this article starts with a comprehensive account of effects of the ionizing radiation on living systems. Quantitative description of types of radiation exposure and their varied effects is given. The origin, type and magnitude of mutagenic effects of radiation are described. The concept of radiation risk factors, basis for their evaluation and their currently accepted values are presented. With this background, origin and magnitude of radioactivity and associated ionizing radiations in nuclear reactors are presented and the elaborate measures to contain them are described. It is recognized that notwithstanding all the measures taken in the nuclear industry, certain amount of radiation exposure, however small, is inevitable and the values, based on the experience world over, are presented. Estimated health risk due to such exposures is evaluated. For a comparative analysis, risks in other options of electricity generation such as hydel and fossil-fuelled plants are described. It is seen that on an overall basis, the nuclear option is no more risky than the other commonly employed options, and is in fact, significantly less. Lastly, since every option of electricity generation entails some risk, the case of 'no addition of electricity, and its impact on the society are considered. Based on the analysis of extensive data provided by UNDP on the human development parameters for different countries in the world, it is shown that at least for developing countries, any option of addition of electricity would be far more desirable than the

  13. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in

  14. The public and effective risk communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frewer, L.J.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract Public perceptions of risk have often been dismissed on the basis of ¿irrationality¿, and have tended to be excluded from policy processes by risk assessors and managers. People¿s responses to different risks are determined by psychological factors. The technical risk estimates

  15. Portfolio Diversification Effects of Downside Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Hyung (Namwon); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractRisk managers use portfolios to diversify away the un-priced risk of individual securities. In this paper we compare the benefits of portfolio diversification for downside risk in case returns are normally distributed with the case fat tailed distributed returns. The downside risk of a

  16. Controlling Legal Risk for Effective Hospital Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Jun Park

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To analyze the types of medical malpractice, medical errors, and medical disputes in a university hospital for the proposal of countermeasures that maximize the efficiency of hospital management, medical departments, and healthcare providers. Materials and Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed and analyzed 55 closed civil lawsuits among 64 medical lawsuit cases carried out in Pusan National University Hospital from January 2000 to April 2013 using medical records, petitions, briefs, and data from the Medical Dispute Mediation Committee. Results: Of 55 civil lawsuits, men were the main plaintiffs in 31 cases (56.4%. The average period from medical malpractice to malpractice proceeding was 16.5 months (range, 1 month to 6.4 years, and the average period from malpractice proceeding to the disposition of a lawsuit was 21.7 months (range, 1 month to 4 years and 11 months. Conclusions: Hospitals can effectively manage their legal risks by implementing a systematic medical system, eliminating risk factors in administrative service, educating all hospital employees on preventative strategies, and improving customer service. Furthermore, efforts should be made to establish standard coping strategies to manage medical disputes and malpractice lawsuits, operate alternative dispute resolution methods including the Medical Dispute Mediation Committee, create a compliance support center, deploy a specialized workforce including improved legal services for employees, and specialize the management-level tasks of the hospital.

  17. Informing people about radiation risks: a review of obstacles to public understanding and effective risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on informing people about radiation risks. The paper focuses on obstacles to public understanding and effective risk communication. The paper concludes with a set of guidelines for communicating information about radiation risks to the public. The paper also includes an appendix that reviews the literature on one of the most important tools for communicating information about radiation risks: risk comparisons

  18. Cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia : The effect of communicating risk factors on intended healthy behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokslag, Anouk; Kroeze, Willemieke; de Groot, Christianne J.M.; Teunissen, Pim W.

    Objective: We studied the effect of communicating cardiovascular risk factors on intended healthy behavior in women with a history of preeclampsia or uncomplicated pregnancy. Methods: Intention for healthy behavior was assessed before and after cardiovascular risk assessment. Changes were calculated

  19. Evaluation of a visual risk communication tool: effects on knowledge and perception of blood transfusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D H; Mehta, M D

    2003-06-01

    Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.

  20. Health effects and risks of radon exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, F.T.

    1990-01-01

    In view of the current widespread concern about the risks associated with indoor radon exposures, this paper explores the evidence on risk from human epidemiology studies, particularly in reference to EPA's 4-pCi/L action level value and from animal studies. While the EPA 4-pCi/L level has no legal force and is not a standard per se, it is becoming a de facto standard as several states are considering the level in pending legislation. Although risk can also be related to radiation dose from radon exposure, this perspective on risk is not treated in this chapter

  1. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  3. Toward effective ecological risk-management of refinery corrective action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metzger, B.H.; Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.; Archibald, B.; Clark, J.; Cura, J.

    1995-01-01

    Cleanup of complex industrial sites, such as refineries, requires risk-based decision tools to ensure that environmentally protective remediation is consistent with current and future land use. However, conventional ecological risk assessment approaches are not well suited for complex industrial sites. Site risk assessments focus on hypothetical chemical risk assuming diverse and undisturbed ecosystems, rather than industrial and disturbed area conditions. In addition, they offer little guidance as to how to make timely and effective risk management decisions. An innovative methodology is proposed to assist industry and regulatory risk managers with rapid EcoRisk reconnaissance and cost-effective remedial decision-making at complex industrial sites. Phase 1 comprises a three-step risk screening of areas of ecological concern at the site, which integrates habitat quality characteristics and potential chemical hazards. It yields an ordering of areas as follows: areas of no significant risk; areas of potentially significant risk; and areas of likely significant risk. A decision rule is then applied to determine appropriate risk management action, including: no action; additional study; and remedial or management action. In Phase 2, additional study is conducted for areas that exhibit potentially significant risk so as to facilitate risk management. This methodology is currently being applied at the 1,300 acre, former Exxon Bayway Refinery in New Jersey

  4. The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

    2013-11-01

    Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

  5. Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dacorogna, Michel M.; Gençay, Ramazan; Müller, Ulrich A.; Pictet, Olivier V.

    2001-01-01

    We derive two risk-adjusted performance measures for investors with risk averse preferences. Maximizing these measures is equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of an investor. The first measure, Xeff, is derived assuming a constant risk aversion while the second measure, Reff, is based on a stronger risk aversion to clustering of losses than of gains. The clustering of returns is captured through a multi-horizon framework. The empirical properties of Xeff, Reff are studied within the context of real-time trading models for foreign exchange rates and their properties are compared to those of more traditional measures like the annualized return, the Sharpe Ratio and the maximum drawdown. Our measures are shown to be more robust against clustering of losses and have the ability to fully characterize the dynamic behaviour of investment strategies.

  6. Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, Andrew; Doucet, Joseph; Nickel, Trevor

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other. - Research highlights: → We find that government policy may increase both project returns and risk. → We find a policy of capital grants combined with an output price support to be preferred. → Price supports alone will tend to reward those plants which need them the least.

  7. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  8. Risk factors and effective management of preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    English FA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fred A English,1 Louise C Kenny,1 Fergus P McCarthy1,2 1Irish Centre for Fetal and Neonatal Translational Research (INFANT, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; 2Women’s Health Academic Centre, King's Health Partners, St Thomas' Hospital, London, UK Abstract: Preeclampsia, a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy is estimated to complicate 2%–8% of pregnancies and remains a principal cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Preeclampsia may present at any gestation but is more commonly encountered in the third trimester. Multiple risk factors have been documented, including: family history, nulliparity, egg donation, diabetes, and obesity. Significant progress has been made in developing tests to predict risk of preeclampsia in pregnancy, but these remain confined to clinical trial settings and center around measuring angiogenic profiles, including placental growth factor or newer tests involving metabolomics. Less progress has been made in developing new treatments and therapeutic targets, and aspirin remains one of the few agents shown to consistently reduce the risk of developing preeclampsia. This review serves to discuss recent advances in risk factor identification, prediction techniques, and management of preeclampsia in antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal patients. Keywords: pregnancy, treatment, risk reduction, prediction

  9. Effects of risk communication on natural hazards on real estate owners' risk perception and risk behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchecker, M.; Maidl, E.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, in most of the European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone on urban flood risks The owners received official letters containing information on potential danger, the probability of flood events, constructional safety measures, and guidelines for appropriate actions in case of an immediate flood. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to achieve more detailed information about the particular risks for their building using an online accessible risk map within a geographic information system (GIS). This risk communication campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree a campaign of written risk communication can shape land owners risk perception and risk behaviour, and which other factors (e.g. trust in authorities, risk, risk zone category of the building) contributed to these outcomes... In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners of buildings in the hazard zones in Zurich (50 % in blue zone, 50 % in yellow and yellow-white zone), that is 14% of all persons who were addressed by the authorities of the city. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents' evaluation of the virtual and physical information material, the time they spent for studying the information material, the dimensions of their risk perception, their acceptability of risks and their preparedness to implement constructional and other safety

  10. Deciding to Help : Effects of Risk and Crisis Communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.H.; Kerstholt, J.H.; Giebels, E.

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to gain insight into the (combined) effects of risk and crisis communication on adequate behaviour during a crisis situation. In addition, it adds to the existing literature by examining the effects of risk and crisis communication on psychological factors that are involved in

  11. Deciding to help : effects of risk and crisis communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Marije; Kerstholt, Johanna Helena; Giebels, Ellen

    This study aimed to gain insight into the (combined) effects of risk and crisis communication on adequate behaviour during a crisis situation. In addition, it adds to the existing literature by examining the effects of risk and crisis communication on psychological factors that are involved in

  12. An Analysis of Enterprise Risk Management and IT Effectiveness Constructs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waithe, Errol

    2016-01-01

    One major problem many organizations are facing is balancing the risk-management practices of the organization with overall information technology (IT) effectiveness. The purpose of this non-experimental quantitative correlational study was to assess the constructs and correlations associated with enterprise risk management and IT effectiveness.…

  13. Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Coronary Heart Disease Risk

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To determine the effectiveness of coronary heart disease risk reduction interventions. Methods: The effects of lipid lowering interventions as well as dietary and lifestyle modifications on some risk factors of CHD were studied retrospectively in 47 males and 53 female patients [aged 33 to 61 years; mean age 47.20 ...

  14. The Volatile Effect of Conflict Risk on Foreign Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umit Hacioglu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The opportunities of investment brought along by the global economic integrity might turn into a threat in an instant and undermine the underlying structures of national economies. It is necessary to analyze the conflict risk properly in terms of both portfolio investment and finance strategies. This is an important step to be included in the process of arriving to a rational decision. In that way, the existing investment risks could be priced more efficiently. It is proved on Collier and Starr models that there is a correlation between the conflict risk and unemployment, economic recession, inflation and fiscal discipline. In brief, the breakdown in the economic parameters increases the conflict risk and a progress occurring in the opposite way, decreases that risk. In this study, it is discussed the effects of the conflict risk for foreign investment availabilities. Keywords: Foreign direct investment; volatile effect; conflict risk; investment climate

  15. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  16. ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CREDIT RISK MAN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    The study was conducted using 20 Micro-firms in Accra which ... Journal of Science and Technology, Vol. ... RESEARCH PAPER ... capital (measured by the borrower's net worth), ... number of firms existing in the market and the ... agers and/or staff of the credit management .... the firm's risk tolerance and the level of profit-.

  17. Effectiveness and risks of stable iodine prophylaxis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waight, P.J.

    1995-01-01

    The factors upon which the efficacy of stable iodine prophylaxis depends are reviewed, with particular reference to the dose of stable iodine, the timing of the dose, the influence of dietary iodine and the impact of the other prospective actions. The risks of stable iodine ingestion are estimated, and their application to the principle of Justification in outlined. (Author)

  18. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  19. Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep; Gregson, Margaux; Lalumière, Martin L

    2012-02-01

    Prospect theory suggests that people are risk-averse when facing gains, but risk-prone when facing losses, a pattern known as the framing effect. Although framing effects have been widely demonstrated, few studies have investigated framing effects under conditions of need. Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision makers should prefer high-risk options in situations of high need, when lower risk options are unlikely to meet those needs. In two experiments, we examined (1) whether framing effects occurred in behavioural tasks involving risky decision making from description and decision making from experience, (2) whether participants' risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory, and (3) whether decision framing interacted with conditions of need to influence decision making under risk. The results suggest that under all circumstances, risky decision making conformed to the predictions of risk-sensitivity theory. Framing effects were at least partially demonstrable under all experimental conditions. Finally, negative frames interacted with situations of high need to produce particularly elevated levels of risky choice. Together, the results suggest that risk-sensitivity theory can augment prospect theory to explain choice under conditions of need. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans [European Commission, Brussels (Belgium). DG Research

    2001-07-01

    Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable.

  1. Community Research Contributing to Effective Risk Governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Neale; Forsstroem, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Research in the field of risk assessment and management has had a prominent role in the Commission's nuclear research programme, especially in the area of radiation protection. In the 1980s, the research had a largely technical focus. Through the 1990s, this focus shifted and greater attention was given to broader, less technical, issues, in particular those concerned with risk perception and communication, risk governance and the role of public participation in the process. This trend will continue within the Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6) given the increasing recognition of the importance of these broader socio-economic issues for decision making related to both nuclear and other technologies. The paper summarises the main outcomes of Commission sponsored research in the above areas, how this has influenced research currently being carried out in the Sth Framework Programme (FP5) and that being considered for inclusion in FP6. Two aspects are given particular attention: firstly, research into risk governance (both in the nuclear field in general and the waste management area in particular), especially the importance of social trust and participation of all relevant stakeholders in terms of achieving efficient and acceptable decisions when addressing complex, contentious issues; secondly, research into the social and psychological factors that influenced the efficacy and acceptance of measures taken to mitigate the long term impact of areas in the Former Soviet Union contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. There are important lessons here for the management of any future accident that may affect Europe, especially the need for those affected locally to have a role in the decision process and to be able to exercise at least partial control over their own welfare. While this research was largely carried out in a 'nuclear' context, its findings are more generally applicable

  2. Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2008-01-01

    Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

  3. Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

    1995-01-01

    Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

  4. Effects of alternative styles of risk information on EMF risk perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Elstein, Arthur; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte

    2010-01-01

    Risk scenarios characterized by exposures to new technologies with unknown health effects, together with limited appreciation of benefits pose a challenge to risk communication. The present report illustrates this situation through a study of the perceived risk from mobile phones and mobile masts...... radiation from mobile phones and masts. The objective was to study whether different types of information were rated as equally useful, informative, comprehensible, and trustworthy. Moreover, an important issue was whether information would influence risk perception and intended behavior. The conclusion...

  5. Effects of trust and governance on relational risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nooteboom, B.; Berger, J.; Noorderhaven, N.G.

    In transaction cost economics, foist has been treated as redundant or even misleading. This study tested the effects of governance and trust the risk perceived by agents of firms in alliances. Two dimensions of relational risk were assessed: the probability that something will go wrong and the size

  6. The effect of bright lines in environmental risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, K.N.; Desvousges, W.H.; Smith, K.V.; Payne, J.

    1993-01-01

    Bright lines in environmental risk communication refer to the specific levels at which an environmental risk becomes a serious health threat and action should be taken to mitigate its effects. This study examined the effect of ''bright lines'' in risk communication by emphasizing the radon exposure threshold level of 4 picocuries per liter. Specifically, the authors developed a computer-assisted interview containing bright-line versions of risk information. The bright-line version contained a range of possible radon levels, the corresponding number of estimated lung cancer cases, the relative health risk from radon compared to other health risks, and the EPA guidelines for mitigating levels above 4 picocuries in the home. The non-bright line version was identical to the bright-line version, except it did not include the EPA's mitigation recommendations. Effect measures included respondents' change in perceived risk after reading their materials, intended testing behavior, and advice to their neighbor for a specified radon level either above or below the 4 picocury threshold level. This paper discusses broader policy implications for designing effective risk communication programs

  7. Editorial: Lead Risk Assessment and Health Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard W. Mielke

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1980, Clair C. Patterson stated: “Sometime in the near future it probably will be shown that the older urban areas of the United States have been rendered more or less uninhabitable by the millions of tons of poisonous industrial lead residues that have accumulated in cities during the past century”. We live in the near future about which this quote expressed concern. This special volume of 19 papers explores the status of scientific evidence regarding Dr. Patterson’s statement on the habitability of the environments of communities. Authors from 10 countries describe a variety of lead issues in the context of large and small communities, smelter sites, lead industries, lead-based painted houses, and vehicle fuel treated with lead additives dispersed by traffic. These articles represent the microcosm of the larger health issues associated with lead. The challenges of lead risk require a concerted global action for primary prevention.

  8. Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training Based on the Neuromuscular Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

    2017-07-01

    The effects of targeted neuromuscular training (TNMT) on movement biomechanics associated with the risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are currently unknown. Purpose/Hypotheses: To determine the effectiveness of TNMT specifically designed to increase trunk control and hip strength. The hypotheses were that (1) TNMT would decrease biomechanical and neuromuscular factors related to an increased ACL injury risk and (2) TNMT would decrease these biomechanical and neuromuscular factors to a greater extent in athletes identified as being at a high risk for future ACL injuries. Controlled laboratory study. Female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent 3-dimensional biomechanical testing before the season and after completing TNMT. During testing, athletes performed 3 different types of tasks: (1) drop vertical jump, (2) single-leg drop, and (3) single-leg cross drop. Analysis of covariance was used to examine the treatment effects of TNMT designed to enhance core and hip strength on biomechanical and neuromuscular characteristics. Differences were also evaluated by risk profile. Differences were considered statistically significant at P risk before the intervention (risk profile III) had a more significant treatment effect of TNMT than low-risk groups (risk profiles I and II). TNMT significantly improved proximal biomechanics, including increased hip external rotation moments and moment impulses, increased peak trunk flexion, and decreased peak trunk extension. TNMT that focuses exclusively on proximal leg and trunk risk factors is not, however, adequate to induce significant changes in frontal-plane knee loading. Biomechanical changes varied across the risk profile groups, with higher risk groups exhibiting greater improvements in their biomechanics.

  9. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  10. Cost-effectiveness and radiation risk of breast cancer screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rombach, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    Base cost effectiveness risk associated with radiological screening for tuberculosis and lung tumor the Government of Netherlands advised against mass screening. However, mass screening remains an important method in the case of breast cancer

  11. Effects of school physical education and aerobic training on risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of school physical education and aerobic training on risk factors of atherosclerosis in Beninese adolescents. P Gouthan, M M Lawani, M Aremou, H Agboton, G Cazorla, L O Amuza, A L Toriola ...

  12. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-04-01

    Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management

  13. Radiation effects and radiation risks. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lengfelder, E.; Forst, D.; Feist, H.; Pratzel, H.G.

    1990-01-01

    The book presents the facts and the principles of assessment and evaluation of biological radiation effects in general and also with particular reference to the reactor accident of Chernobyl, reviewing the consequences and the environmental situation on the basis of current national and international literature, including research work by the authors. The material compiled in this book is intended especially for physicians, but will also prove useful for persons working in the public health services, in administration, or other services taking care of people. The authors tried to find an easily comprehensible way of presenting and explaining the very complex processes and mechanisms of biological radiation effects and carcinogenesis, displaying the physical primary processes and the mechanisms of the molecular radiation effects up to the effects of low-level radiation, and present results of comparative epidemiologic studies. This section has been given considerable space, in proportion to its significance. It also contains literature references for further reading, offering more insight and knowledge of aspects of special subject fields. The authors also present less known results and data and discuss them against the background of well-known research results and approaches. Apart from the purpose of presenting comprehensive information, the authors intend to give an impact for further thinking about the problems, and helpful tools for independent decisions and action on the basis of improved insight and assessment, and in this context particularly point to the problems induced by the Chernobyl reactor accident. (orig.) With 10 maps in appendix [de

  14. Indirect risk effects reduce feeding efficiency of ducks during spring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behney, Adam C; O'Shaughnessy, Ryan; Eichholz, Michael W; Stafford, Joshua D

    2018-01-01

    Indirect risk effects of predators on prey behavior can have more of an impact on prey populations than direct consumptive effects. Predation risk can elicit more vigilance behavior in prey, reducing the amount of time available for other activities, such as foraging, which could potentially reduce foraging efficiency. Understanding the conditions associated with predation risk and the specific effects predation risk have on prey behavior is important because it has direct influences on the profitability of food items found under various conditions and states of the forager. The goals of this study were to assess how ducks perceived predation risk in various habitat types and how strongly perceived risk versus energetic demand affected foraging behavior. We manipulated food abundance in different wetland types in Illinois, USA to reduce confounding between food abundance and vegetation structure. We conducted focal-animal behavioral samples on five duck species in treatment and control plots and used generalized linear mixed-effects models to compare the effects of vegetation structure versus other factors on the intensity with which ducks fed and the duration of feeding stints. Mallards fed more intensively and, along with blue-winged teal, used longer feeding stints in open habitats, consistent with the hypothesis that limited visibility was perceived to have a greater predation risk than unlimited visibility. The species temporally nearest to nesting, wood ducks, were willing to take more risks for a greater food reward, consistent with an increase in a marginal value of energy as they approached nesting. Our results indicate that some duck species value energy differently based on the surrounding vegetation structure and density. Furthermore, increases in the marginal value of energy can be more influential than perceived risk in shaping foraging behavior patterns. Based on these findings, we conclude that the value of various food items is not solely

  15. Brand priming effect on consumers’ financial risk taking behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Mantovani

    Full Text Available Abstract Taking the perspective of brand priming theory, this study proposes that brands associated with an audacious personality trait may influence consumers to be take more risks in making subsequent decisions. Two experiments, run in sport brands contexts, showed that individuals exposed to brands with high (vs. low audacity traits demonstrated a higher rate of risk taking in financial decisions. The studies also showed that this effect is moderated by individuals’ experience with the financial market. This moderation suggests that there was an activation of a goal not just semantic activation, but through the brand priming. This research provides insights into how today's consumers deal with brand priming effects in risky choice settings. From a managerial perspective, it can help managers to understand the likely effects of brand priming on behavior and better predict the probability of risk aversion or risk seeking outcomes.

  16. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

  17. Food safety in the domestic environment: the effect of consumer risk information on human disease risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauta, Maarten J; Fischer, Arnout R H; van Asselt, Esther D; de Jong, Aarieke E I; Frewer, Lynn J; de Jonge, Rob

    2008-02-01

    The improvement of food safety in the domestic environment requires a transdisciplinary approach, involving interaction between both the social and natural sciences. This approach is applied in a study on risks associated with Campylobacter on broiler meat. First, some web-based information interventions were designed and tested on participant motivation and intentions to cook more safely. Based on these self-reported measures, the intervention supported by the emotion "disgust" was selected as the most promising information intervention. Its effect on microbial cross-contamination was tested by recruiting a set of participants who prepared a salad with chicken breast fillet carrying a known amount of tracer bacteria. The amount of tracer that could be recovered from the salad revealed the transfer and survival of Campylobacter and was used as a measure of hygiene. This was introduced into an existing risk model on Campylobacter in the Netherlands to assess the effect of the information intervention both at the level of exposure and the level of human disease risk. We showed that the information intervention supported by the emotion "disgust" alone had no measurable effect on the health risk. However, when a behavioral cue was embedded within the instruction for the salad preparation, the risk decreased sharply. It is shown that a transdisciplinary approach, involving research on risk perception, microbiology, and risk assessment, is successful in evaluating the efficacy of an information intervention in terms of human health risks. The approach offers a novel tool for science-based risk management in the area of food safety.

  18. Medical effects and risks of exposure to ionising radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mettler, Fred A

    2012-01-01

    Effects and risk from exposure to ionising radiation depend upon the absorbed dose, dose rate, quality of radiation, specifics of the tissue irradiated and other factors such as the age of the individual. Effects may be apparent almost immediately or may take decades to be manifest. Cancer is the most important stochastic effect at absorbed doses of less than 1 Gy. The risk of cancer induction varies widely across different tissues; however, the risk of fatal radiation-induced cancer for a general population following chronic exposure is about 5% Sv −1 . Quantification of cancer risk at doses of less than 0.1 Gy remains problematic. Hereditary risks from irradiation that might result in effects to offspring of humans appear to be much lower and any such potential risks can only be estimated from animal models. At high doses (over 1 Gy) cell killing and modification causes deterministic effects such as skin burns, and bone marrow depression, in which case immunosuppression becomes a critical issue. Acute whole body penetrating gamma irradiation at doses in excess of 2 Gy results in varying degrees of acute radiation sickness and doses over 10 Gy are usually lethal as a result of combined organ injury. (note)

  19. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  20. State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino J Levy

    Full Text Available The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

  1. State dependent valuation: the effect of deprivation on risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Dino J; Thavikulwat, Amalie C; Glimcher, Paul W

    2013-01-01

    The internal state of an organism affects its choices. Previous studies in various non-human animals have demonstrated a complex, and in some cases non-monotonic, interaction between internal state and risk preferences. Our aim was to examine the systematic effects of deprivation on human decision-making across various reward types. Using both a non-parametric approach and a classical economic analysis, we asked whether the risk attitudes of human subjects towards money, food and water rewards would change as a function of their internal metabolic state. Our findings replicate some previous work suggesting that, on average, humans become more risk tolerant in their monetary decisions, as they get hungry. However, our specific approach allowed us to make two novel observations about the complex interaction between internal state and risk preferences. First, we found that the change in risk attitude induced by food deprivation is a general phenomenon, affecting attitudes towards both monetary and consumable rewards. But much more importantly, our data indicate that rather than each subject becoming more risk tolerant as previously hypothesized based on averaging across subjects, we found that as a population of human subjects becomes food deprived the heterogeneity of their risk attitudes collapses towards a fixed point. Thus subjects who show high-risk aversion while satiated shift towards moderate risk aversion when deprived but subjects who are risk tolerant become more risk averse. These findings demonstrate a more complicated interaction between internal state and risk preferences and raise some interesting implications for both day-to-day decisions and financial market structures.

  2. Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Guizhen; Zhang Lei; Lu Yonglong; Mol, Arthur P.J.

    2011-01-01

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China.

  3. Pedestrian injury risk and the effect of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Rosén, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Older adults and pedestrians both represent especially vulnerable groups in traffic. In the literature, hazards are usually described by the corresponding injury risks of a collision. This paper investigates the MAIS3+F risk (the risk of sustaining at least one injury of AIS 3 severity or higher, or fatal injury) for pedestrians in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car collisions. Using some assumptions, a model-based approach to injury risk, allowing for the specification of individual injury risk parameters for individuals, is presented. To balance model accuracy and sample size, the GIDAS (German In-depth Accident Study) data set is divided into three age groups; children (0-14); adults (15-60); and older adults (older than 60). For each group, individual risk curves are computed. Afterwards, the curves are re-aggregated to the overall risk function. The derived model addresses the influence of age on the outcome of pedestrian-to-car accidents. The results show that older people compared with younger people have a higher MAIS3+F injury risk at all collision speeds. The injury risk for children behaves surprisingly. Compared to other age groups, their MAIS3+F injury risk is lower at lower collision speeds, but substantially higher once a threshold has been exceeded. The resulting injury risk curve obtained by re-aggregation looks surprisingly similar to the frequently used logistic regression function computed for the overall injury risk. However, for homogenous subgroups - such as the three age groups - logistic regression describes the typical risk behavior less accurately than the introduced model-based approach. Since the effect of demographic change on traffic safety is greater nowadays, there is a need to incorporate age into established models. Thus far, this is one of the first studies incorporating traffic participant age to an explicit risk function. The presented approach can be especially useful for the modeling and prediction of risks, and for the

  4. Framing Effects in Narrative and Non-Narrative Risk Messages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhardt, Joseph; Shapiro, Michael A

    2015-08-01

    Narrative messages are increasingly popular in health and risk campaigns, yet gain/loss framing effects have never been tested with such messages. Three experiments examined framing in narrative messages. Experiment 1 found that only the character's decision, not framing, influenced judgments about characters in a narrative derived from a prospect theory context. Experiment 2 found that a framing effect that occurred when presented in a decision format did not occur when the same situation was presented as a narrative. Using a different story/decision context, Experiment 3 found no significant difference in preference for surgery over radiation therapy in a narrative presentation compared to a non-narrative presentation. The results suggest that health and risk campaigns cannot assume that framing effects will be the same in narrative messages and non-narrative messages. Potential reasons for these differences and suggestions for future research are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Radiogenic health effects: communicating risks to the general public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strzelczyk, Jadwiga

    1999-01-01

    Harmful effects of prolonged radiation exposures were recognized early on following the discovery of X-rays by W.C. Roentgen in 1895. The type and severity of radiogenic effects are functions of a number of factors, radiation quality and quantity, chemical toxicity, and radiosensitivity of irradiated tissues being the most significant ones. Currently, there are several human registries for radiogenic cancers. Atomic bomb and nuclear test survivors, and populations exposed to medical irradiation constitute the largest study cohorts. Two general types of radiogenic effects have emerged from these registries: prompt and delayed. While the effects of acute exposures are very well documented, investigations of the effects of low-level exposures require the use of mathematical models. Communicating the risks of lower-level chronic radiation exposures to the general public remains a challenging task. The most effective approaches include clear interpretation and placing radiation risks in perspective: risks versus benefits, and comparisons with risks carried by common activities in which we all engage. (author)

  6. Study on information dissemination for effective nuclear risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The aim of this study are to develop an information system and guideline for nuclear risk communication between expert and citizens as well as between both experts in terms of lessons learned from serious disaster such as Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident. Technical standards for disseminating a result and process of seismic/tsunami PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of nuclear facility as well as nuclear risk information in an emergency, and risk communication in normal times are needed. Tins study examines the framework, contents, and technical basis for developing an information system for nuclear risk communication. In addition, this study identifies the communication issues of nuclear risk communication concerning the seismic/tsunami PRA through the testing information systems in areas around nuclear facilities and by providing effective implementation guidelines. JNES has developed the information system specified as Protection of Nuclear Power Plants against Tsunamis and Post Earthquake considerations in the External Zone (TiPEEZ) as part of IAEA International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP). The EBP is currently preparing technical documents (TECDOC) regarding the implementation of the TiPEEZ. After the Fukushima accident, there has been increasing demand for disaster mitigation systems to share risk information between nuclear organizations and local municipalities. JNES and Niigata Institute of Technology conduct implementation of TiPEEZ for the practical use based on the corroborative works with Kashiwazaki city and citizens. (author)

  7. Study on information dissemination for effective nuclear risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study are to develop an information system and guideline for nuclear risk communication between expert and citizens as well as between both experts in terms of lessons learned from serious disaster such as Fukushima Dai-ich NPP accident. Technical standards for disseminating a result and process of seismic/tsunami PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) of nuclear facility as well as nuclear risk information in an emergency, and risk communication in normal times are needed. Tins study examines the framework, contents, and technical basis for developing an information system for nuclear risk communication. In addition, this study identifies the communication issues of nuclear risk communication concerning the seismic/tsunami PRA through the testing information systems in areas around nuclear facilities and by providing effective implementation guidelines. JNES has developed the information system specified as Protection of Nuclear Power Plants against Tsunamis and Post Earthquake considerations in the External Zone (TiPEEZ) as part of IAEA International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC) Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP). The EBP is currently preparing technical documents (TECDOC) regarding the implementation of the TiPEEZ. After the Fukushima accident, there has been increasing demand for disaster mitigation systems to share risk information between nuclear organizations and local municipalities. JNES and Niigata Institute of Technology conduct implementation of TiPEEZ for the practical use based on the corroborative works with Kashiwazaki city and citizens. (author)

  8. Which Type of Risk Information to Use for Whom? Moderating Role of Outcome-Relevant Involvement in the Effects of Statistical and Exemplified Risk Information on Risk Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Jiyeon; Jeong, Se-Hoon; Hwang, Yoori

    2017-04-01

    The extant empirical research examining the effectiveness of statistical and exemplar-based health information is largely inconsistent. Under the premise that the inconsistency may be due to an unacknowledged moderator (O'Keefe, 2002), this study examined a moderating role of outcome-relevant involvement (Johnson & Eagly, 1989) in the effects of statistical and exemplified risk information on risk perception. Consistent with predictions based on elaboration likelihood model (Petty & Cacioppo, 1984), findings from an experiment (N = 237) concerning alcohol consumption risks showed that statistical risk information predicted risk perceptions of individuals with high, rather than low, involvement, while exemplified risk information predicted risk perceptions of those with low, rather than high, involvement. Moreover, statistical risk information contributed to negative attitude toward drinking via increased risk perception only for highly involved individuals, while exemplified risk information influenced the attitude through the same mechanism only for individuals with low involvement. Theoretical and practical implications for health risk communication are discussed.

  9. Effects of tea and coffee on cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bøhn, Siv K; Ward, Natalie C; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Croft, Kevin D

    2012-06-01

    Tea and coffee have been associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), both positively and negatively. Epidemiological data suggest that black and green tea may reduce the risk of both coronary heart disease and stroke by between 10 and 20%. Experimental and clinical trial data generally indicate either neutral or beneficial effects on risk factors and pathways linked to the development of CVD. Controversy still exists regarding the effects of coffee, where there have been concerns regarding associations with hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and myocardial infarction. However, long term moderate intake of coffee is not associated with detrimental effects in healthy individuals and may even protect against the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. The detrimental effects of coffee may be associated with the acute pressor effects, most likely due to caffeine at high daily intakes, and lipids from boiled coffee can contribute to raised serum cholesterol. Genetic polymorphisms in enzymes involved in uptake, metabolism and excretion of tea and coffee compounds are also associated with differential biological effects. Potential mechanisms by which tea and coffee phytochemicals can exert effects for CVD protection include the regulation of vascular tone through effects on endothelial function, improved glucose metabolism, increased reverse cholesterol transport and inhibition of foam cell formation, inhibition of oxidative stress, immunomodulation and effects on platelet function (adhesion and activation, aggregation and clotting). The phytochemical compounds in tea and coffee and their metabolites are suggested to influence protective endogenous pathways by modulation of gene-expression. It is not known exactly which compounds are responsible for the suggestive protective effects of tea and coffee. Although many biologically active compounds have been identified with known biological effects, tea and coffee contain many unidentified compounds with potential

  10. Effective dose and cancer risk in PET/CT exams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinto, Gabriella M.; Sa, Lidia Vasconcellos de

    2013-01-01

    Due to the use of radiopharmaceutical positron-emitting in PET exam and realization of tomography by x-ray transmission in CT examination, an increase of dose with hybrid PET/CT technology is expected. However, differences of doses have been reported in many countries for the same type of procedure. It is expected that the dose is an influent parameter to standardize the protocols of PET/CT. This study aimed to estimate the effective doses and absorbed in 65 patients submitted to oncological Protocol in a nuclear medicine clinic in Rio de Janeiro, considering the risk of induction of cancer from the scan. The CT exam-related doses were estimated with a simulator of PMMA and simulated on the lmPACT resistance, which for program effective dose, were considered the weight factors of the lCRP 103. The PET exam doses were estimated by multiplying the activity administered to the patient with the ICRP dose 80 factors. The radiological risk for cancer incidence were estimated according to the ICRP 103. The results showed that the effective dose from CT exam is responsible for 70% of the effective total in a PET/CT scan. values of effective dose for the PET/CT exam reached average values of up to 25 mSv leading to a risk of 2, 57 x 10 -4 . Considering that in staging of oncological diseases at least four tests are performed annually, the total risk comes to 1,03x 10 -3

  11. Risk estimates for the health effects of alpha radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.C.; McNeill, K.G.

    1981-09-01

    This report provides risk estimates for various health effects of alpha radiation. Human and animal data have been used to characterize the shapes of dose-response relations and the effects of various modifying factors, but quantitative risk estimates are based solely on human data: for lung cancer, on miners in the Colorado plateau, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Ontario and Newfoundland; for bone and head cancers, on radium dial painters and radium-injected patients. Slopes of dose-response relations for lung cancer show a tendency to decrease with increasing dose. Linear extrapolation is unlikely to underestimate the excess risk at low doses by more than a factor of l.5. Under the linear cell-killing model, our best estimate

  12. Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.

    2010-01-01

    A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage

  13. The Volatility Effect: Lower Risk without Lower Return

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C. Blitz (David); P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe present empirical evidence that stocks with low volatility earn high risk-adjusted returns. The annual alpha spread of global low versus high volatility decile portfolios amounts to 12% over the 1986-2006 period. We also observe this volatility effect within the US, European and

  14. Evaluations of maintenance effectiveness on unavailability and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    A methodology is presented for quantifying the effectiveness of maintenance on unavailability and on risk. The methodology is based on standard Markov modeling principles. What is new is the application to quantify maintenance effectiveness by explicitly quantifying maintenance benefits as well as maintenance's negative contributions. Maintenance effects are quantified by defining a degraded state for the component in addition to an operational state and a failed state which are usually defined. The maintenance model which is developed is a natural extension of the standard models used in reliability analysis and in Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The results which are obtained can be directly used in PRAs. Applications of the methodology are presented by quantifying maintenance effectiveness on component performance and component unavailability for specific maintenance schedules

  15. Concern and Risk Perception: Effects on Osteoprotective Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcenilla-Wong, A. L.; Chen, J. S.; March, L. M.

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the effect that level of concern for osteoporosis, as well as self-perceived risk of osteoporosis and fracture, has on supplementation use, seeking medical advice, bone mineral density (BMD) testing, and antiosteoporosis medication (AOM) use. Study subjects were 1,095 female Australian participants of the Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) untreated for osteoporosis at baseline. Study outcomes from self-administered questionnaires included calcium and vitamin D supplementation, self-reported seeking of medical advice regarding osteoporosis, BMD testing, and AOM use in the last 12 months at the late assessment. Logistic regression was used in the analysis. Concern significantly increased the likelihood of seeking medical advice and, however, had no significant impact on screening or treatment. Heightened self-perceived risks of osteoporosis and fracture both significantly increased the likelihood of seeking medical advice and BMD testing while elevated self-perceived risk of fracture increased AOM use. Supplementation use was not significantly associated with concern levels and risk perception. Concern and risk perceptions to osteoporosis and fracture were significantly associated with certain bone-protective behaviours. However, the disconnect between perceived osteoporosis risk and AOM use illustrates the need to emphasize the connection between osteoporosis and fracture in future education programs. PMID:25276471

  16. Informed renesting decisions: the effect of nest predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakanen, Veli-Matti; Rönkä, Nelli; Thomson, Robert L; Koivula, Kari

    2014-04-01

    Animals should cue on information that predicts reproductive success. After failure of an initial reproductive attempt, decisions on whether or not to initiate a second reproductive attempt may be affected by individual experience and social information. If the prospects of breeding success are poor, long-lived animals in particular should not invest in current reproductive success (CRS) in case it generates costs to future reproductive success (FRS). In birds, predation risk experienced during breeding may provide a cue for renesting success. Species having a high FRS potential should be flexible and take predation risk into account in their renesting decisions. We tested this prediction using breeding data of a long-lived wader, the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted, dunlin cued on predation risk information acquired from direct experience of nest failure due to predation and ambient nest predation risk. While the overall renesting rate was low (34.5%), the early season renesting rate was high but declined with season, indicating probable temporal changes in the costs and benefits of renesting. We develop a conceptual cost-benefit model to describe the effects of the phase and the length of breeding season on predation risk responses in renesting. We suggest that species investing in FRS should not continue breeding in short breeding seasons in response to predation risk but without time constraints, their response should be similar to species investing in CRS, e.g. within-season dispersal and increased nest concealment.

  17. Do beef risk perceptions or risk attitudes have a greater effect on the beef purchase decisions of Canadian consumers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    Cluster analysis is applied in this study to group Canadian households by two characteristics, their risk perceptions and risk attitudes toward beef. There are some similarities in demographic profiles, meat purchases, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) media recall between the cluster that perceives beef to be the most risky and the cluster that has little willingness to accept the risks of eating beef. There are similarities between the medium risk perception cluster and the medium risk attitude cluster, as well as between the cluster that perceives beef to have little risk and the cluster that is most willing to accept the risks of eating beef. Regression analysis shows that risk attitudes have a larger impact on household-level beef purchasing decisions than do risk perceptions for all consumer clusters. This implies that it may be more effective to undertake policies that reduce the risks associated with eating beef, instead of enhancing risk communication to improve risk perceptions. Only for certain clusters with higher willingness to accept the risks of eating beef might enhancing risk communication increase beef consumption significantly. The different role of risk perceptions and risk attitudes in beef consumption needs to be recognized during the design of risk management policies.

  18. Dose dependence on stochastic radiobiological effect in radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komochkov, M.M.

    1999-01-01

    The analysis of the results in dose -- effect relationship observation has been carried out on the cell and organism levels, with the aim to obtain more precise data on the risk coefficients at low doses. The results are represented by two contrasting groups of dose dependence on effect: a downwards concave and a J-shaped curve. Both types of dependence are described by the equation solutions of an assumed unified protective mechanism, which comprises two components: constitutive and adaptive or inducible ones. The latest data analysis of the downwards concave dependence curves shows a considerable underestimation of radiation risk in all types of cancer, except leukemia, for a number of critical groups in a population, at low doses comparing to the ICRP recommendations. With the dose increase, the decrease of the effect value per dose unit is observed. It may be possibly related to the switching of the activity of the adaptive protective mechanism, with some threshold dose values being exceeded

  19. Effects of suicide bereavement on mental health and suicide risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pitman, Alexandra; Osborn, David; King, Michael

    2014-01-01

    to psychiatric care for parents bereaved by the suicide of an offspring, increased risk of suicide in mothers bereaved by an adult child's suicide, and increased risk of depression in offspring bereaved by the suicide of a parent. Some evidence was shown for increased rejection and shame in people bereaved......Between 48 million and 500 million people are thought to experience suicide bereavement every year. Over the past decade, increased policy attention has been directed towards suicide bereavement, but with little evidence to describe the effect of exposure or to provide appropriate responses. We...... used a systematic approach to carry out a narrative review of studies of the effect of suicide bereavement on mortality, mental health, and social functioning, and compared them with effects from other bereavements. We found 57 studies that satisfied strict inclusion criteria. Results from...

  20. A nutritionally mediated risk effect of wolves on elk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2010-04-01

    Though it is widely argued that antipredator responses carry nutritional costs, or risk effects, these costs are rarely measured in wild populations. To quantify risk effects in elk, a species that strongly responds to the presence of wolves, we noninvasively monitored diet selection and nutrient balance in wintering elk in the Upper Gallatin, Montana, USA, over three winters while quantifying the local presence of wolves at a fine spatiotemporal scale. Standard nutritional indices based on the botanical and chemical composition of 786 fecal samples, 606 snow urine samples, and 224 forage samples showed that elk were generally malnourished throughout winter. Increased selection for dietary nitrogen within forage types (e.g., grasses) led to approximately 8% higher fecal nitrogen in the presence of wolves. However, urinary allantoin : creatinine and potassium : creatinine ratios decreased in the presence of wolves, suggesting large declines in energy intake, equal to 27% of maintenance requirements. Urinary nitrogen : creatinine ratios confirmed that deficiencies in nitrogen and/or energy were exacerbated in the presence of wolves, leading to increased endogenous protein catabolism. Overall, the nutritional effects of wolf presence may be of sufficient magnitude to reduce survival and reproduction in wintering elk. Nutritionally mediated risk effects may be important for understanding predator-prey dynamics in wild populations, but such effects could be masked as bottom-up forces if antipredator responses are not considered.

  1. Variation in the effect of carcass decontamination impacts the risk for consumers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten; Aabo, Søren

    2016-01-01

    •The variation of decontamination has an effect on consumer risk reduction.•The effect of variation on risk is lower when mean log reduction is high.•The effect of variation on risk also depends on initial carcass contamination.•The effect of decontamination should be expressed as consumer risk...

  2. Transthoracic needle biopsy: factors effecting risk of pneumothorax

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topal, Ugur; Ediz, Buelent

    2003-01-01

    Objective: to evaluate the factors that could effect the risk of pneumothorax in patients undergoing transthoracic biopsy. Material and methods: variables that could increase the risk of pneumothorax were evaluated in 453 CT-guided transthoracic biopsies. Factors were evaluated in two groups: (1) lesion related (presence of emphysema around the lesion, lesion depth, cavitation, presence of fissure/atelectasis and pleural tag in the needle trajectory); and (2) procedure related (biopsy type, needle size, number of passages, level of experience of the operator). All variables were analysed by χ 2 test and multivariate logistic regression statistics. Results: pneumothorax was developed in 85 (18.8%) out of 453 procedures. A chest tube was inserted in ten (11.7%) of them. Variables that were significantly associated with an increased risk of pneumothorax were depth of the lesion (P<0.001) and severity of the emphysema (P<0.01). Conclusion: the length of the lung parenchyma traversed during the biopsy is the predominant risk factor for pneumothorax in patients undergoing CT-guided transthoracic biopsy. The risk of pneumothorax was also increased with the severity of the emphysema around the lesion

  3. Synergistic effect of oral corticosteroids use on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in high risk populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Shih-Wei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liao, Kuan-Fu

    2018-06-01

    Little evidence is available on the relationship between oral corticosteroids use and hepatocellular carcinoma. The objective of this study was to investigate whether oral corticosteroids use correlates with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in high risk populations in Taiwan. Using representative claims database established from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program with a population coverage rate of 99.6%, we identified 102,182 subjects aged 20-84 years with newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma in 2000-2011 as the cases and 102,182 randomly selected subjects aged 20-84 years without hepatocellular carcinoma as the matched controls. In subjects with any one of comorbidities including alcohol-related disease, chronic liver disease, and diabetes mellitus, the adjusted OR of hepatocellular carcinoma was 29.9 (95% CI 28.7, 31.1) for subjects with never use of oral corticosteroids, and the adjusted OR would increase to 33.7 (95% CI 32.3, 35.3) for those with ever use of oral corticosteroids. The adjusted OR of hepatocellular carcinoma was 1.03 for subjects with increasing cumulative duration of oral corticosteroids use for every one year (95% CI 1.01, 1.06), with a duration-dependent effect. The largest OR occurred in subjects with ever use of oral corticosteroids and concurrently comorbid with alcohol-related disease, chronic liver disease, and diabetes mellitus (adjusted OR 122.7, 95% CI 108.5, 138.8). There is a synergistic effect between oral corticosteroids use and the traditional risk factors on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. People with risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma should receive regular ultrasound surveillance, particularly when they currently use oral corticosteroids. Copyright © 2018 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The effect of financial ratios on systematic risk index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Faez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between financial ratios and indicator of systemic risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects 73 manufacturing companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange market over the period 2003-2010. The study first calculates the independent variables in the form of financial ratios and then the ratios affecting the systematic risk index are extracted using entropy method. The output of this stage is the introduction of five influential financial indicators as the independent variables of the study. Using t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient the rate of independent variables effect on the systematic risk index is evaluated and finally, using stepwise regression method, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable is examined. According to results of our survey, the correlation coefficient of such indices as “the ratio of stock price to the profit of each share”, “Current ratio”, “each share profit ratio” and “the stockholders rights return ratio” have respectively the highest correlation with the systematic risk index.

  5. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  6. Principles of resource-effectiveness and regulatory-effectiveness for risk-informed applications: Reducing burdens by improving effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1999-01-01

    Principles of resource-effectiveness and regulatory-effectiveness are presented which systematically compare the resources expended on a requirement or activity versus its risk importance. To evaluate resource-effectiveness and regulatory-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis principles are generalized to resource versus risk importance principles. It is shown that by applying resource-importance analyses, current requirements and activities can be systematically evaluated for their resource-effectiveness and their risk-consistency. Strategies can then be developed to maximize both resource-effectiveness and risk-consistency which reduces unnecessary burdens while maintaining risk or reducing risk. The principles, approaches, and implementation schemes which are presented provide a systematic process for evaluating and optimizing resource-effectiveness and regulatory-effectiveness. The illustrations that are presented show that current NRC and industry actions are not resource-effective. By improving their resource-effectiveness and risk-consistency, significant burden reductions are achievable while risk, e.g. core damage frequency, is maintained or is reduced. The illustrations show that by optimizing industry resources and NRC resources with regard to their risk-effectiveness, significant burden reductions are achievable for both the industry and NRC. Algorithms and software exist for broad-scale implementations. Because of the burden reductions which are identified and the improvements in risk-consistency which result, resource-importance analysis should be the first step in risk-informed applications. Resource-importance analysis is so important and can provide such large benefits that it needs to be carried out on all current requirements that are addressed by risk-informed applications

  7. Liquidity constraints, risk premia, and themacroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Jaccard, Ivan

    2013-01-01

    We study the transmission of liquidity shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms and households are subject to liquidity risk. The provision of liquidity services is undertaken by financial intermediaries that allocate the stock of liquid asset between the different sectors of the economy. We find that the macroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks are considerably larger in the model economy that generates a realistic equity premium. Liquidity constraints amplify business cycl...

  8. Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

    2016-10-01

    This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Soil plate bioassay: an effective method to determine ecotoxicological risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boluda, R; Roca-Pérez, L; Marimón, L

    2011-06-01

    Heavy metals have become one of the most serious anthropogenic stressors for plants and other living organisms. Having efficient and feasible bioassays available to assess the ecotoxicological risks deriving from soil pollution is necessary. This work determines pollution by Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, V and Zn in two soils used for growing rice from the Albufera Natural Park in Valencia (Spain). Both were submitted to a different degree of anthropic activity, and their ecotoxicological risk was assessed by four ecotoxicity tests to compare their effectiveness: Microtox test, Zucconi test, pot bioassay (PB) and soil plate bioassay (SPB). The sensitivity of three plant species (barley, cress and lettuce) was also assessed. The results reveal a different degree of effectiveness and level of inhibition in the target organisms' growth depending on the test applied, to such an extent that the one-way analysis of variance showed significant differences only for the plate bioassay results, with considerable inhibition of root and shoot elongation in seedlings. Of the three plant species selected, lettuce was the most sensitive species to toxic effects, followed by cress and barley. Finally, the results also indicate that the SPB is an efficient, simple and economic alternative to other ecotoxicological assays to assess toxicity risks deriving from soil pollution. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Correlation between effective dose and radiological risk: general concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Paulo Roberto; Yoshimura, Elisabeth Mateus; Nersissian, Denise Yanikian; Melo, Camila Souza, E-mail: pcosta@if.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IF/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Instituto de Fisica

    2016-05-15

    The present review aims to offer an educational approach related to the limitations in the use of the effective dose magnitude as a tool for the quantification of doses resulting from diagnostic applications of ionizing radiation. We present a critical analysis of the quantities accepted and currently used for dosimetric evaluation in diagnostic imaging procedures, based on studies published in the literature. It is highlighted the use of these quantities to evaluate the risk attributed to the procedure and to calculate the effective dose, as well as to determine its correct use and interpretation. (author)

  11. Risk perception of nuclear energy and the effect of information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Caroline

    2000-08-01

    Results from 4 studies are reported. A mixture of survey, experimental and quasi-experimental designs and a variety of samples (undergraduates, postgraduates and graduates of Nottingham University, visitors to Sellafield and a random national UK sample) were used to examine risk perceptions of nuclear energy. The roles of risk, benefit, preference, knowledge, control, trust, attitudes, intentions to act and personality, in relation to nuclear energy, were examined. A survey study examined and explored the above-mentioned variables. Then experimental and quasi-experimental studies were devised using a BNFL video advert, a BNFL written newspaper advert and BNFL's Sellafield Visitors' Centre (SVC), to test the effectiveness of information on these variables. Through pre-post experimental and quasi-experimental studies, it was shown that levels of knowledge could be increased through information. This increase was also seen to be sustained over time, especially when people engaged in their learning environment (reading a newspaper or going to Sellafield). Regarding levels of knowledge, passively watching a video had a significant but very small effect. Changes in attitudes were also recorded, although these were only sustained over time for the Visitors' Centre. Concerning the other variables in question, changes in perceived risk, perceived benefit and preference were also recorded for the samples, although these results either could not be attributed to the different types of information, were not sustained or were no different to observations in the control groups. Some changes were recorded for aspects of control in the advert study although none were seen in the SVC study. No changes were found in trust for any of the different types of information. The main, consistent finding, was that sustained changes were recorded for knowledge and attitudes. These were both found to be linked to many of the variables under investigation, including risk

  12. Risk perception of nuclear energy and the effect of information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, Caroline

    2000-08-01

    Results from 4 studies are reported. A mixture of survey, experimental and quasi-experimental designs and a variety of samples (undergraduates, postgraduates and graduates of Nottingham University, visitors to Sellafield and a random national UK sample) were used to examine risk perceptions of nuclear energy. The roles of risk, benefit, preference, knowledge, control, trust, attitudes, intentions to act and personality, in relation to nuclear energy, were examined. A survey study examined and explored the above-mentioned variables. Then experimental and quasi-experimental studies were devised using a BNFL video advert, a BNFL written newspaper advert and BNFL's Sellafield Visitors' Centre (SVC), to test the effectiveness of information on these variables. Through pre-post experimental and quasi-experimental studies, it was shown that levels of knowledge could be increased through information. This increase was also seen to be sustained over time, especially when people engaged in their learning environment (reading a newspaper or going to Sellafield). Regarding levels of knowledge, passively watching a video had a significant but very small effect. Changes in attitudes were also recorded, although these were only sustained over time for the Visitors' Centre. Concerning the other variables in question, changes in perceived risk, perceived benefit and preference were also recorded for the samples, although these results either could not be attributed to the different types of information, were not sustained or were no different to observations in the control groups. Some changes were recorded for aspects of control in the advert study although none were seen in the SVC study. No changes were found in trust for any of the different types of information. The main, consistent finding, was that sustained changes were recorded for knowledge and attitudes. These were both found to be linked to many of the variables under investigation, including risk perception. A study

  13. Spatial interactions database development for effective probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liming, J. K.; Dunn, R. F.

    2008-01-01

    In preparation for a subsequent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) fire risk analysis update, the STP Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) is updating its spatial interactions database (SID). This work is being performed to support updating the spatial interactions analysis (SIA) initially performed for the original South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS) probabilistic safely assessment (PSA) and updated in the STPEGS Level 2 PSA and IPE Report. S/A is a large-scope screening analysis performed for nuclear power plant PRA that serves as a prerequisite basis for more detailed location-dependent, hazard-spec analyses in the PRA, such as fire risk analysis, flooding risk analysis, etc. SIA is required to support the 'completeness' argument for the PRA scope. The objectives of the current SID development effort are to update the spatial interactions analysis data, to the greatest degree practical, to be consistent with the following: the as-built plant as of December 31, 2007 the in-effect STPNOC STPEGS Units 1 and 2 PRA the current technology and intent of NUREG/CR-6850 guidance for lire risk analysis database support the requirements for PRA SIA, including fire and flooding risk analysis, established by NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200 and the ASME PRA Standard (ASME RA-S-2002 updated through ASME RA-Sc-2007,) This paper presents the approach and methodology for state-of-the-art SID development and applications, including an overview of the SIA process for nuclear power plant PRA. The paper shows how current relational database technology and existing, conventional station information sources can be employed to collect, process, and analyze spatial interactions data for the plant in an effective and efficient manner to meet the often challenging requirements of industry guidelines and standards such as NUREG/CR-6850, NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200, and ASME RA-S-2002 (updated through ASME RA-Sc 2007). This paper includes tables and figures illustrating how SIA

  14. Effects of cocoa flavanols on risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdman, John W; Carson, LeaAnn; Kwik-Uribe, Catherine; Evans, Ellen M; Allen, Robin R

    2008-01-01

    Epidemiologic investigations support the hypothesis that regular consumption of flavonoid-containing foods can reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). While flavonoids are ubiquitous in plants, cocoa can be particularly rich in a sub-class of flavonoids known as flavanols. A number of human dietary intervention trials with flavanol-containing cocoa products have demonstrated improvements in endothelial and platelet function, as well as blood pressure. These studies provide direct evidence for the potential cardiovascular benefits of flavanol-containing foods and help to substantiate the epidemiological data. In this review, results from selective published trials with cocoa and chocolate focused on risk for CVD will be discussed along with a study we recently completed evaluating the effects of the daily consumption of flavanol-containing dark chocolate (CocoaVia?) with and without plant sterol esters on CVD markers in a normotensive population with mild hypercholesterolemia. In this study, the daily consumption of flavanol-containing dark chocolate was associated with a significant mean reduction of 5.8 mmHg in systolic blood pressure. Together the results of these human dietary intervention trials provide scientific evidence of the vascular effects of cocoa flavanols and suggest that the regular consumption of cocoa products containing flavanols may reduce risk of CVD.

  15. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

    2006-01-01

    The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor

  16. Effects of microgravity on renal stone risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrzyk, R. A.; Pak, C. Y. C.; Cintron, N. M.; Whitson, P. A.

    1992-01-01

    Physiologic changes induced during human exposure to the microgravity environment of space may contribute to an increased potential for renal stone formation. Renal stone risk factors obtained 10 days before flight and immediately after return to earth indicated that calcium oxalate and uric acid stone-forming potential was increased after space flights of 4-10 days. These data describe the need for examining renal stone risk during in-flight phases of space missions. Because of limited availability of space and refrigerated storage on spacecraft, effective methods must be developed for collecting urine samples in-flight and for preserving (or storing) them at temperatures and under conditions commensurate with mission constraints.

  17. Ten practical lessons for an effective radon risk communication program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

    1990-01-01

    Those responsible for state and local radon programs often express frustration about the small share of homes that have been tested for radon, and the small share of those with high readings that have been mitigated. Several recent studies have examined how well alternative ways of communicating about radon's risk have accomplished the goals of motivating appropriate testing and mitigation. Unfortunately, the results of these studies have not reached practitioners. This paper is for them. It summarizes the practical implications that are most crucial for planning and implementing an effective radon risk communication program--a program that will motivate people to test for radon and mitigate when radon levels are high, without unduly alarming those whose radon levels are low

  18. Green tea’s effects in the breast cancer risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Pardos-Sevilla

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Phytochemicals like catechins from green tea might modify the epigenome and transcirptome of tumoral cells. The objective of the present review is to retrospectively evaluate literature examining the mechanisms throughout the green tea could exert a protective effect on breast cancer risk. In this work, more than 100 articles published during the last 15 years that relate tea consumption and breast cancer prevalence and development have been analysed. Green tea polyphenols can reduce risk of breast cancer throughout the inhibition of estrogenic and chemotoxic activity in liver, stimulation of metabolic pathway of glutathione conjugation, improvement of the metabolic syndrome, as well as control of immune system regulation, oxidative stress and DNA methylation. Although in vitro and animal studies show the potential ability of green tea polyphenols to act against breast cancer, the lack of experiments in humans, are the major factors in limiting us to conduct dietary recommendations based on scientific evidence for the management of patients with breast cancer.

  19. The Risk of Vampire Effect in Advertisements Using Celebrity Endorsement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetyana Kuvita

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the race to get the attention of the target audience, advertisers often use special attention-getting devices. This in turn exposes them to a higher risk of creating a vampire effect when the core message about the brand or a product is “eaten up” by such devices. The concept of a vampire effect in advertising appears to be under-researched in the current literature. Therefore, this paper provides deeper insights into the vampire effect occurrences in printed advertisements using celebrity endorsement. The paper is based on a qualitative study with an eye-tracking device with 12 participants and on the following experiment with 60 university students. The research found that a significantly higher risk of creating a vampire effect exists when using an unrelated celebrity as an attention-getting device than when using a related celebrity or no celebrity at all. Marketers are advised to use related celebrities if choosing to stick to this attention-getting approach. However, the concept of “relatedness” should be pre-tested prior to launching an advertising campaign.

  20. Effective Project Risk management in Micro Companies : Case study for Persona Optima Iceland ehf.

    OpenAIRE

    Bražinskaitė, Justina

    2011-01-01

    This study is meant to be a guide for micro companies regarding effective project risk management. The main purpose of this thesis is to introduce project risk management and build a user-friendly managerial model toward effective project risk management in micro companies. The research is based on a case company Persona Optima Iceland ehf. analysis. The study investigates risk management, uncertainties and risks in projects, project risk management, its models and particularities in orde...

  1. Guidelines for communicating about the risks of nuclear energy effectively, responsibly, and ethically

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents and discusses guidelines for communicating information about the risks of nuclear energy effectively, responsibility, and ethically. It consists of four parts: guidelines for communicating risk information; guidelines for presenting and explaining risk-related numbers and statistics; guidelines for presenting and explaining risk comparisons; and problems frequently encountered in communicating risk information

  2. Effectively managing nuclear risk through human performance improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coe, R.P.

    2004-01-01

    Full text: The US commercial nuclear industry has just completed an outstanding decade of plant performance. Safety levels and electric production are at unprecedented high levels and continue to exceed even high industry goals. Nuclear energy continues to keep the highest priority on performance improvement programs and highly trained/qualified people that maintain its record setting safety and reliability of operations. While the industry has maintained a consistently high level of performance, the advent of deregulation and the consolidation of NPP ownership, as well as the current climate of concern about both rising energy costs and availability of power, has raised the standard for nuclear energy's level of competitiveness in today's market place. The resulting challenge is how to more effectively manage risk and improve performance even further in a generally high performing organization. Newer technology and more training by themselves are not the answer. Rather, the answer will lie in the human side of the organization and management's ability to tap into the unused potential of employee commitment and productivity. It is people who offer the greatest potential for organizational success. Given the fact that human performance has been demonstrated to yield higher rates of return than physical capital, it makes good business sense to determine how to encourage the behaviors in the workplace to manage the risk that will accompany efforts to boost the nuclear industry to new heights of excellence. This means effectively developing a performance improvement culture through identifying measurable performance indicators and determining how behaviors can best be influenced to improve those indicators. It also means seeing a culture of performance improvement and risk management as a strategic planning tool rather than a solution to a particular problem. One of the most effective ways to develop this culture of performance improvement and effectively managing risk

  3. Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

    2018-01-01

    Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

  4. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  5. Effective doses and standardised risk factors from paediatric diagnostic medical radiation exposures: Information for radiation risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bibbo, Giovanni

    2018-01-01

    In the paediatric medical radiation setting, there is no consistency on the radiation risk information conveyed to the consumer (patient/carer). Each communicator may convey different information about the level of risk for the same radiation procedure, leaving the consumer confused and frustrated. There is a need to standardise risks resulting from medical radiation exposures. In this study, paediatric radiographic, fluoroscopic, CT and nuclear medicine examination data have been analysed to provide (i) effective doses and radiation induced cancer risk factors from common radiological and nuclear medicine diagnostic procedures in standardised formats, (II) awareness of the difficulties that may be encountered in communicating risks to the layperson, and (iii) an overview of the deleterious effects of ionising radiation so that the risk communicator can convey with confidence the risks resulting from medical radiation exposures. Paediatric patient dose data from general radiographic, computed tomography, fluoroscopic and nuclear medicine databases have been analysed in age groups 0 to <5 years, 5 to <10 years, 10 to <15 years and 15 to <18 years to determine standardised risk factors. Mean, minimum and maximum effective doses and the corresponding mean lifetime risks for general radiographic, fluoroscopic, CT and nuclear medicine examinations for different age groups have been calculated. For all examinations, the mean lifetime cancer induction risk is provided in three formats: statistical, fraction and category. Standardised risk factors for different radiological and nuclear medicine examinations and an overview of the deleterious effects of ionising radiation and the difficulties encountered in communicating the risks should facilitate risk communication to the patient/carer.

  6. Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

    2013-01-01

    Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

  7. Radiation effects and risks: overview and a new risk perception index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehani, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty provides opportunities for differences in perception, and radiation risks at low level of exposures involved in few computed tomography scans fall in this category. While there is good agreement among national and international organisations on risk probability of cancer, risk perception has barely been dealt with by these organisations. Risk perception is commonly defined as the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Severity and latency are important factors in perception. There is a need to connect all these. Leaving risk perception purely as a subjective judgement provides opportunities for people to amplifying risk. The author postulates a risk perception index as severity divided by latency that becomes determining factor for risk perception. It is hoped that this index will bring rationality in risk perception. (authors)

  8. Effect of cigarette smoking on insulin resistance risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj Mouhamed, D; Ezzaher, A; Neffati, F; Douki, W; Gaha, L; Najjar, M F

    2016-02-01

    Smoking is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The mechanism(s) of the effects of smoking on CVD are not clearly understood; however, a number of atherogenic characteristics, such as insulin resistance have been reported. We aim to investigate the effects of cigarette smoking on insulin resistance and to determine the correlation between this parameter with smoking status characteristics. This study was conducted on 138 non-smokers and 162 smokers aged respectively 35.6±16.0 and 38.5±21.9 years. All subjects are not diabetic. Fasting glucose was determined by enzymatic methods and insulin by chemiluminescence method. Insulin resistance (IR) was estimated using the Homeostasis Model of Assessment equation: HOMA-IR=[fasting insulin (mU/L)×fasting glucose (mmol/L)]/22.5. IR was defined as the upper quartile of HOMA-IR. Values above 2.5 were taken as abnormal and reflect insulin resistance. Compared to non-smokers, smokers had significantly higher levels of fasting glucose, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR index. These associations remained significant after adjustment for confounding factors (age, gender, BMI and alcohol consumption). A statistically significant association was noted between the smoking status parameters, including both the number of cigarettes smoked/day and the duration of smoking, and fasting insulin levels as well for HOMA-IR index. Among smokers, we noted a positive correlation between HOMA-IR index and both plasma thiocyanates and urinary cotinine. Our results show that smokers have a high risk to developing an insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia, compared with a matched group of non-smokers, and may help to explain the high risk of cardiovascular diseases in smokers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier SAS.

  9. Noxious facility impact projection: Incorporating the effects of risk aversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    Developing new sites for noxious facilities has become a complex process with many potential pitfalls. In addition to the need to negotiate conditions acceptable to the host community, siting success may depend on the facility proposer's ability to identify a candidate site that not only meets technical requirements, but that is located in a community or region whose population is not highly averse to the risks associated with the type of facility being proposed. Success may also depend on the proposer accurately assessing potential impacts of the facility and offering an equitable compensation package to the people affected by it. Facility impact assessments, as typically performed, include only the effects of changes in population, employment and economic activity associated with facility construction and operation. Because of their scope, such assessments usually show a short-run, net economic benefit for the host region, making the intensely negative public reaction to some types and locations of facilities seem unreasonable. The impact component excluded from these assessments is the long-run economic effect of public perceptions of facility risk and nuisance characteristics. Recent developments in psychological and economic measurement techniques have opened the possibility of correcting this flaw by incorporating public perceptions in projections of economic impacts from noxious facilities

  10. Communicating radon risk effectively: Radon testing in Maryland. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desvousges, W.H.; Smith, V.K.; Rink, H.H.

    1988-10-01

    Two sets of materials and corresponding delivery strategies for communicating radon risk were evaluated, compared with a 'no-special-treatment' strategy in a comparison community. One community received radio public-service announcements and utility bill inserts. The second received these plus posters, local government sponsorship of a radon awareness week, and local slide presentations. The most-intensive efforts (multiple channels, multiple hits) were more effective than the less intensive effort, which had little impact compared with no special treatment. From a marketing perspective, the effort was very successful, increasing the share of homeowners who tested for radon from 5% to 15%. This may not be viewed as sufficiently effective from a public-health perspective, however

  11. Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich Striessnig

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies.

  12. Internal risks of factoring business: identification, cause-effect relationships, accounting and management aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Vygivska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article identifies the risks of the economic activity of a factoring company. The identified risks are divided into internal (fraud risk, credit risk, liquidity, nonpayment, staff, supplier's failure to meet the terms of the supply / factoring contract and external (legal, inflation, currency, interest, industry risks, country risk. The cause-effect relationships of the identified risks have been established. The content of information requests of the leading part of the factoring company, as well as the management subsystems (accounting, economic analysis, control and planning, and the direction of information flows between them (to manage the company's internal risks is determined. These proposals contribute to the improvement of accounting and analytical support for risk management of the factoring business, the choice of alternative risk management methods, the impact on their possible consequences, minimizing the negative impact of risks on the financial condition of the company, and establishing the effectiveness of factoring operations under risk.

  13. Effects of news frames on perceived risk, emotions, and learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Otieno

    Full Text Available The media play a key role in forming opinions by influencing people´s understanding and perception of a topic. People gather information about topics of interest from the internet and print media, which employ various news frames to attract attention. One example of a common news frame is the human-interest frame, which emotionalizes and dramatizes information and often accentuates individual affectedness. Our study investigated effects of human-interest frames compared to a neutral-text condition with respect to perceived risk, emotions, and knowledge acquisition, and tested whether these effects can be "generalized" to common variants of the human-interest frame. Ninety-one participants read either one variant of the human-interest frame or a neutrally formulated version of a newspaper article describing the effects of invasive species in general and the Asian ladybug (an invasive species in particular. The framing was achieved by varying the opening and concluding paragraphs (about invasive species, as well as the headline. The core text (about the Asian ladybug was the same across all conditions. All outcome variables on framing effects referred to this common core text. We found that all versions of the human-interest frame increased perceived risk and the strength of negative emotions compared to the neutral text. Furthermore, participants in the human-interest frame condition displayed better (quantitative learning outcomes but also biased knowledge, highlighting a potential dilemma: Human-interest frames may increase learning, but they also lead to a rather unbalanced view of the given topic on a "deeper level".

  14. Effects of News Frames on Perceived Risk, Emotions, and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otieno, Christine; Spada, Hans; Renkl, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    The media play a key role in forming opinions by influencing people´s understanding and perception of a topic. People gather information about topics of interest from the internet and print media, which employ various news frames to attract attention. One example of a common news frame is the human-interest frame, which emotionalizes and dramatizes information and often accentuates individual affectedness. Our study investigated effects of human-interest frames compared to a neutral-text condition with respect to perceived risk, emotions, and knowledge acquisition, and tested whether these effects can be "generalized" to common variants of the human-interest frame. Ninety-one participants read either one variant of the human-interest frame or a neutrally formulated version of a newspaper article describing the effects of invasive species in general and the Asian ladybug (an invasive species) in particular. The framing was achieved by varying the opening and concluding paragraphs (about invasive species), as well as the headline. The core text (about the Asian ladybug) was the same across all conditions. All outcome variables on framing effects referred to this common core text. We found that all versions of the human-interest frame increased perceived risk and the strength of negative emotions compared to the neutral text. Furthermore, participants in the human-interest frame condition displayed better (quantitative) learning outcomes but also biased knowledge, highlighting a potential dilemma: Human-interest frames may increase learning, but they also lead to a rather unbalanced view of the given topic on a “deeper level”. PMID:24223999

  15. Effectiveness of personalized and interactive health risk calculators: a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harle, Christopher A; Downs, Julie S; Padman, Rema

    2012-01-01

    Risk calculators are popular websites that provide individualized disease risk assessments to the public. Little is known about their effect on risk perceptions and health behavior. This study sought to test whether risk calculator features-namely, personalized estimates of one's disease risk and feedback about the effects of risk-mitigating behaviors-improve risk perceptions and motivate healthy behavior. A web-based experimental study using simple randomization was conducted to compare the effects of 3 prediabetes risk communication websites. Setting The study was conducted in the context of ongoing health promotion activities sponsored by a university's human resources office. Patients Participants were adult university employees. Intervention The control website presented nonindividualized risk information. The personalized noninteractive website presented individualized risk calculations. The personalized interactive website presented individualized risk calculations and feedback about the effects of hypothetical risk-mitigating behaviors. Measurements Pre- and postintervention risk perceptions were measured in absolute and relative terms. Health behavior was measured by assessing participant interest in follow-up preventive health services. On average, risk perceptions decreased by 2%. There was no general effect of personalization or interactivity in aligning subjective risk perceptions with objective risk calculations or in increasing healthy behaviors. However, participants who previously overestimated their risk reduced their perceptions by 16%. This was a significantly larger change than the 2% increase by participants who underestimated their risk. Limitations Results may not generalize to different populations, different diseases, or longer-term outcomes. Compared to nonpersonalized information, individualized risk calculators had little positive effect on prediabetes risk perception accuracy or health behavior. Risk perception accuracy was improved in

  16. Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevens, R.S.P.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Melenberg, B.

    2011-01-01

    Payments of life insurance products depend on the uncertain future evolution of survival probabilities. This uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. Existing literature shows that the effect of longevity risk on single life annuities can be substantial, and that there exists a (natural) hedge

  17. Risk assessment of UVB effects on resistance to infectious diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garssen, J.; Goettsch, W.; Slob, W.; Loveren, H. van; de Gruijl, F.

    1996-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a quantitative risk assessment of lowered resistance to infections in humans due to (solar) ultraviolet B (UVB) exposure. We followed the steps for risk assessment as defined by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences: (1) hazard identification, (2) dose-response assessment, (3) exposure assessment, and (4) risk characterization. For step 1, the suppressory effects of UVB radiation on the immune system has been reviewed, supplemented with new data, and analyzed. Experiments on UV-induced immunosuppression cannot be performed with humans for ethical reasons, but herpes simplex virus infection appears to be the human paradigm. Thus, UVB radiation appears to be a potential hazard to immunologic functions. Step 2 is crucial, but dose-response relationships for infections have never been measured in humans. We used our earlier dose-response rat data for suppression of lymphocyte stimulation and computed that the UVB dose resulting in a 50% reduction of lymphocyte stimulation by Listeria monocytogenes is 6.800 J/m 2 . Using mixed skin lymphocyte response assays we found that humans are 3.8 times less sensitive than rats (interspecies variation [IEV]). To account for the 2.5 percentile of most susceptible individuals in a population, an additional factor (intraspecies variation [IAV]) was introduced (0.5 for humans). Using these data, we computed that 13.100 J/m 2 of UVB radiation emitted by FS40 lamps would suppress 50% of the proliferative response of lymphocytes to L. monocytogenes in most sensitive skin type 2 humans. In step 3, we assumed the action spectrum for the responses analyzed by us as identical to an action spectrum for suppression of contact hypersensitivity that is available in the literature. In step 4, we calculated that approximately 100 min of solar exposure at around noon in Italy or Spain would suppress the resistance to infections by L. monocytogenes in the most sensitive humans. (author)

  18. Risk assessment of UVB effects on resistance to infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garssen, J.; Goettsch, W.; Slob, W.; Loveren, H. van [National Institute of Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); de Gruijl, F. [Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht (Netherlands)

    1996-08-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a quantitative risk assessment of lowered resistance to infections in humans due to (solar) ultraviolet B (UVB) exposure. We followed the steps for risk assessment as defined by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences: (1) hazard identification, (2) dose-response assessment, (3) exposure assessment, and (4) risk characterization. For step 1, the suppressory effects of UVB radiation on the immune system has been reviewed, supplemented with new data, and analyzed. Experiments on UV-induced immunosuppression cannot be performed with humans for ethical reasons, but herpes simplex virus infection appears to be the human paradigm. Thus, UVB radiation appears to be a potential hazard to immunologic functions. Step 2 is crucial, but dose-response relationships for infections have never been measured in humans. We used our earlier dose-response rat data for suppression of lymphocyte stimulation and computed that the UVB dose resulting in a 50% reduction of lymphocyte stimulation by Listeria monocytogenes is 6.800 J/m{sup 2}. Using mixed skin lymphocyte response assays we found that humans are 3.8 times less sensitive than rats (interspecies variation [IEV]). To account for the 2.5 percentile of most susceptible individuals in a population, an additional factor (intraspecies variation [IAV]) was introduced (0.5 for humans). Using these data, we computed that 13.100 J/m{sup 2} of UVB radiation emitted by FS40 lamps would suppress 50% of the proliferative response of lymphocytes to L. monocytogenes in most sensitive skin type 2 humans. In step 3, we assumed the action spectrum for the responses analyzed by us as identical to an action spectrum for suppression of contact hypersensitivity that is available in the literature. In step 4, we calculated that approximately 100 min of solar exposure at around noon in Italy or Spain would suppress the resistance to infections by L. monocytogenes in the most sensitive humans. (author).

  19. PREMIM and EMIM: tools for estimation of maternal, imprinting and interaction effects using multinomial modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howey Richard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Here we present two new computer tools, PREMIM and EMIM, for the estimation of parental and child genetic effects, based on genotype data from a variety of different child-parent configurations. PREMIM allows the extraction of child-parent genotype data from standard-format pedigree data files, while EMIM uses the extracted genotype data to perform subsequent statistical analysis. The use of genotype data from the parents as well as from the child in question allows the estimation of complex genetic effects such as maternal genotype effects, maternal-foetal interactions and parent-of-origin (imprinting effects. These effects are estimated by EMIM, incorporating chosen assumptions such as Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or exchangeability of parental matings as required. Results In application to simulated data, we show that the inference provided by EMIM is essentially equivalent to that provided by alternative (competing software packages such as MENDEL and LEM. However, PREMIM and EMIM (used in combination considerably outperform MENDEL and LEM in terms of speed and ease of execution. Conclusions Together, EMIM and PREMIM provide easy-to-use command-line tools for the analysis of pedigree data, giving unbiased estimates of parental and child genotype relative risks.

  20. Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

    2018-05-16

    Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Social comparison framing in health news and its effect on perceptions of group risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigman, Cabral A

    2014-01-01

    News about health disparities often compares health risks faced by different demographic groups. Does this social comparison produce a contrast effect? It was hypothesized that when two racial groups are compared, people would perceive the relatively more at-risk group to be more, and the less at-risk group to be less, at-risk than if the same risk information was presented without the comparative reference group. Three experiments with Black and White respondents tested effects of intergroup social comparison framing (SCF) on perceptions of risk for sexually transmitted infections and skin cancer. SCF (including one White and two Black disparity frames) did not raise respondents' perceived risk regarding the more at-risk racial group, but consistently lowered respondents' risk ratings for the less at-risk racial group. The finding that the same statistic was perceived differently in comparative and noncomparative contexts underscores the importance of considering effects of communication about disparities.

  2. Survey for the advertising effectiveness measurement of the website 'risk information navigator' and the risk message materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okawa, Masato; Arai, Yuki; Suenaga, Minoru

    2005-08-01

    Risk communication activities are important for promoting mutual understanding between local communities and the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (hereinafter referred to as JNC). The Risk Communication Study Team of JNC Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote further mutual understanding with the local communities. Several communication tools such as poster panels, slide materials, videos, website contents and newsletters were developed as part of its risk communication activities. This paper describes the survey of the internet users in prefectures where nuclear power stations are located, for the advertising effectiveness measurement of nuclear risk information provided on the web site 'Risk Information Navigator' (http://ricotti.jnc.go.jp/risknavi/) and the risk message materials jointly produced by Tokai village's people and JNC. (author)

  3. The effect of education on climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased

  4. Effectiveness of a Handwriting Intervention With At-Risk Kindergarteners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zylstra, Sheryl Eckberg; Pfeiffer, Beth

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effectiveness of an occupational therapist-led handwriting intervention for special education and at-risk kindergarteners. We incorporated a two-group, pretest-posttest design. Both groups consisted of kindergarteners receiving individualized education program (IEP) or Response to Intervention (RtI) support. An occupational therapist provided biweekly group handwriting instruction using the Size Matters Handwriting Program to students in the intervention group (n = 23). The control group (n = 12) received the standard handwriting instruction. Students in the intervention group demonstrated significantly greater gains in handwriting legibility than students in the control group. Students in the intervention group also demonstrated significantly greater gains in the prereading skills of uppercase letter recognition, lowercase letter recognition, and letter sound recognition. This study provides preliminary support for an occupational therapist-led handwriting intervention to improve writing legibility and letter recognition in kindergarteners receiving RtI and IEP supports. Copyright © 2016 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  5. Effectiveness and risks associated with sheltering and evacuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohseni, A.; McKenna, T.

    1995-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have assessed the risks and benefits associated with evacuation and sheltering following a severe reactor accident. In the case of a severe accident and the associated uncertainties with the source term and containment behaviour, these assessments suggest that prompt evacuation of areas close to the plant offers the highest protection of the public against acute doses. Sheltering may be used as an alternative in special circumstances where evacuation may not be feasible. The source term associated with reactor accidents and containment failure mechanism affect the effectiveness of different protective measures. A comparison of different protective measures is made and results discussed. (Author). 9 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Differential Effects for Sexual Risk Behavior: An Application of Finite Mixture Regression

    OpenAIRE

    Lanza, Stephanie T.; Kugler, Kari C.; Mathur, Charu

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the multiple factors that place individuals at risk for sexual risk behavior is critical for developing effective intervention programs. Regression-based methods are commonly used to estimate the average effects of risk factors, however such results can be difficult to translate to prevention implications at the individual level. Although differential effects can be examined to some extent by including interaction terms, as risk factors and moderators are added to the model inte...

  7. Effects of Risk Management Practices on IT Project Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pimchangthong Daranee

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Successful management of an information technology (IT project is the most desirable for all organisations and stakeholders. Many researchers elaborated that risk management is a key part of project management for any project size. Risk management is so critical because it provides project managers with a forward-looking view of both threats and opportunities to improve the project success. The objectives of this research are to explore organisational factors affecting IT project success and risk management practices influencing IT project success. Risk management practices include risk identification, risk analysis, risk response planning, and risk monitoring and control. The IT project success is measured by process performance and product performance. Data are collected from 200 project managers, IT managers, and IT analysts in IT firms through questionnaires and analysed using Independent Sample t-test, One-way ANOVA, and Multiple Linear Regression at the statistical significance level of 0.05. The results show that the differences in organisational types affect IT project success in all aspects, while the differences on organisational sizes affect IT project success in the aspect of product performance and total aspects. Risk identification and risk response planning influence the process performance and the total aspects of IT project success. Risk identification has the highest positive influence on product performance, followed closely by risk response, while risk analysis negatively influences product performance.

  8. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  9. The effect of information quality on liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Tee Yong

    2011-01-01

    I investigate whether information quality affects the cost of equity capital through liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is the sensitivity of stock returns to unexpected changes in market liquidity; recent asset pricing literature has emphasized the importance of this systematic risk. I find that higher information quality is associated with lower liquidity risk and that the reduction in cost of capital due to this association is economically significant. I also find that the negative association...

  10. Credit Rationing Effects of Credit Value-at-Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Slijkerman; D.J.C. Smant (David); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractBanks provide risky loans to firms which have superior information regarding the quality of their projects. Due to asymmetric information the banks face the risk of adverse selection. Credit Value-at-Risk (CVaR) regulation counters the problem of low quality, i.e. high risk, loans and

  11. Risk managements' communicative effects influencing IT project success

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bakker, Karel; Boonstra, Albert; Wortmann, Hans

    The central question of this research is if, and how, risk management contributes to the success of IS/IT projects. Risk management is used regularly in IT projects, despite indications in literature that risk management only occasionally contributes to IT project success. Drawing on Habermas we

  12. ARIES: System for Health effects Assessment in industrial risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabago, I; Vidania, R de; Inmaculada, S

    1992-07-01

    . (Application lo Industrial Risk for Health Effects Assessment) (Author)

  13. ARIES: System for Health effects Assessment in industrial risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabago, I.; Vidania, R. de; Inmaculada, S.

    1992-07-01

    . (Application lo Industrial Risk for Health Effects Assessment) (Author)

  14. ARIES: System for Health effects Assessment in industrial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabago, I.; Vidania, R. de; Inmaculada, S.

    1992-01-01

    . (Application lo Industrial Risk for Health Effects Assessment) (Author)

  15. A THEORY OF CONSUMER’S PERCEIVED RISK UNDER THE HALO EFFECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorian-Laurenţiu FLOREA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite being largely tackled by a manifold of sciences, perceived risk is still a rather unclear concept concerning its formation and update. In today’s economy, where poor purchase decisions are so easy to make, consumers have developed mental shields residing in actions based on perceived risk. This paper develops and tests a theory of perceived risk formation under the halo effect, based on correlation analysis in two forms: rankings individuals on their contribution to the correlations increase and partial correlations. Both internal and external halo effects were found, emerging from the perceived risk component – functional risk, financial risk, social risk, physical risk, psychological risk and time risk –, brand attitude, product category attitude, consumer’s regret, others’ regret expressed through word-of-mouth, recency, and awareness of awareness. The intricate halo that was revealed needs further attention from the scientific community in order to better delimit halo sources and, eventually, to explain its variability.

  16. Effects of risk estimation tendency on risk perception at the Tohoku Disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Yuri; Tsuchida, Shoji; Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Shiotani, Takamasa

    2012-01-01

    The Tohoku Disaster showed the underlying risks of earthquake, tsunami, nuclear power plant accidents and debris removal. The ability to understand the risk and act appropriately has been widely discussed among the professionals as well within the community. In Oct 2011, an Online survey. Using the correspondence analysis approach, the data collected the free-answer question 'What do you remember most regarding news on the Tohoku Disaster' was analyzed. The relationship between the cognitive trade-off factors, zero-risk factors and elaboration tendency factors, and risk perception among the people following the Tohoku Disaster were discussed. (author)

  17. Effectively Managing Nuclear Risk Through Human Performance Improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coe, Richard; Lake, Patricia

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. commercial nuclear industry has just completed an outstanding decade of plant performance. Safety levels and electric production are at unprecedented high levels and continue to exceed even high industry goals. Nuclear energy continues to keep the highest priority on performance improvement programs and highly trained and qualified people that maintain its record setting safety and reliability of operations. While the industry has maintained a high level of performance, the advent of deregulation and the consolidation of nuclear power plant ownership, as well as the current climate for concern about both rising energy costs and the availability of power, have raised the standard for nuclear energy's level of competitiveness in today's market place. The resulting challenge is how to more effectively manage risk and to improve performance even further in a generally high-performing industry. One of the most effective ways to develop this culture is to apply the principles of Hum an Performance Technology, or HPT. HPT is a relatively new field. Its principles are derived from the research and practice of behavioral and cognitive psychologists, instructional technologists, training designers, organizational developers, and various human resource specialists. Using the principles of HPT can help the nuclear industry successfully meet ever-changing environmental and business demands

  18. The Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: (Interrelations, Motives & Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Romagnoli

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article aims at explaining the relationship between terrorism and tourism, and the consequences that the former has on the latter. Untangling this relationship may be a useful tool to understand terrorist goals and motives. The pivotal question to be answered is which effects terrorism has on the tourism industry. In the modern era, terrorism has become an integrated risk, a maybe-to-include package of travelling for tourists. The operating environment for the tourism sector evolved in a huge way after the attacks to the Twin Towers in September of 2001. Terrorism and tourism data have become more and more important since that dramatic episode; both of them are twofold and interconnected with regard to their basic features, namely crossing national borders involving national and international protagonists and both using travel and communication technologies. Terrorists do not act randomly, but they have precise purposes. The article will explain the multiform and multifold ways through which an attack may occur and be better understood. Terrorism crowds the media; it physically hits and psychologically vexes minds. Tourists are an appealing target for terrorists because they are seen as a country’s symbolic ambassadors, while tourism destinations are perfect and visible spots to deploy a terrorist attack. Terrorists are capable of using tourists as the means to get the media’s attention and bombard the world with their message. Risk perception, attitude and preferences are one of the main determinants for a tourist in the destination choice momentum. A potential tourist who negatively conceives a destination as risky may choose to cancel his/her holiday or not even consider it because of security and safety motives.

  19. The Role of Standardization in Improving the Effectiveness of Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ciocoiu, Carmen Nadia; Dobrea, Razvan Catalin

    2010-01-01

    The need of standardization in risk management is justified by the efforts to develop and introduce, during the last few years, integrated risk management frameworks inside the organizations. The financial crisis has underscored the fact that significant improvements in risk management organizations and capabilities are required. The business community and also the experts recognize that the risk management standards have an important role in improving the effectiveness of integrated risk man...

  20. Effect of sex education programme on at-risk sexual behaviour of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effect of sex education programme on at-risk sexual behaviour of ... that place them at risk for Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs). ... The treatment group evaluated the intervention programme positively and their knowledge of sexual health ...

  1. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  2. Predicting population level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals

    OpenAIRE

    Macleod, Colin D.; Macleod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A.; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose ...

  3. Trait Anxiety and Economic Risk Avoidance Are Not Necessarily Associated: Evidence from the Framing Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Runguo; Broster, Lucas S.; Jiang, Yang; Xu, Rui; Yang, Qiwei; Xu, Pengfei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2017-01-01

    According to previous literature, trait anxiety is related to the tendency to choose safety options during risk decision-making, that is, risk avoidance. In our opinion, anxious people’s risk preference might actually reflect their hypersensitivity to emotional information. To examine this hypothesis, a decision-making task that could elicit the framing effect was employed. The framing effect indicates that risk preference could be modulated by emotional messages contained in the description ...

  4. Effects of Supply Chain Risk Management on Organization Performance: Case of Andy Forwarders Services Limited

    OpenAIRE

    Caroline Wanjiru Munyuko

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of the research was to determine the effects of Supply chain risk management on organization performance. Previous studies have focused on risk management within the general context of an organization but little attention has been focused on how supply chain risk affect organization performance in terms of its bottom line profits and overall organization objectives. Particular attention was paid to the effects of supply chain risk management variables to the performance of the org...

  5. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-03-11

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Protective effects of self-esteem and family support on suicide risk behaviors among at-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharaf, Amira Y; Thompson, Elaine A; Walsh, Elaine

    2009-08-01

    If and how family support and self-esteem might interact to protect against adolescent suicide risk is not well understood. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the moderating effect of family support on the relationship between self-esteem and suicide risk behaviors among potential high school dropouts (N = 849), using questionnaires and in-depth assessment interviews. Family support moderated the impact of self-esteem on suicide risk; the ameliorating effect of self-esteem was stronger among adolescents with low versus high family support. Self-esteem influences adolescent suicide risk behaviors for youth with low as well as high family support. Interventions designed to strengthen both self-esteem and support resources are appropriate.

  7. Effects of organizational complexity and resources on construction site risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forteza, Francisco J; Carretero-Gómez, Jose M; Sesé, Albert

    2017-09-01

    Our research is aimed at studying the relationship between risk level and organizational complexity and resources on constructions sites. Our general hypothesis is that site complexity increases risk, whereas more resources of the structure decrease risk. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) approach was adopted to validate our theoretical model. To develop our study, 957 building sites in Spain were visited and assessed in 2003-2009. All needed data were obtained using a specific tool developed by the authors to assess site risk, structure and resources (Construction Sites Risk Assessment Tool, or CONSRAT). This tool operationalizes the variables to fit our model, specifically, via a site risk index (SRI) and 10 organizational variables. Our random sample is composed largely of small building sites with general high levels of risk, moderate complexity, and low resources on site. The model obtained adequate fit, and results showed empirical evidence that the factors of complexity and resources can be considered predictors of site risk level. Consequently, these results can help companies, managers of construction and regulators to identify which organizational aspects should be improved to prevent risks on sites and consequently accidents. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk and effect of radium-224 therapy of ankylosing spondylitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, E.; Wick, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    A total of 1426 patients suffering from Bechterew's disease who had formerly been treated with 224-Ra (up to 30 years ago), were included in an epidemiological study. The mean skeletal alpha dose amounted to 65 rad, the mean observation period was 16 years. Among the 363 mortalities recorded 3 were due to tumours in the skeletal region; of these, 2 were observed in the haemopoietic system. The types of the tumours detected deserve to be given particular attention: whereas osteosarcomas were almost the only tumours observed in a group of patients studied by Spiess, who had been treated with higher doses, no such tumour was revealed in the study population investigated here. Among the 3 tumours seen in this study group 2 were detected in the haemopoietic system as compared to 1 out of 55 tumours observed by Spiess. In contrast to this finding there was a remarkably high incidence of tumours of haemopoietic organs among the victims of Hiroshima. These results show that the relative benefits and disadvantages of the drug 224-Ra once again must be carefully considered. None of the chemical agents used in the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis is free from side-effects. A comparison of the latter with the risks involved in the use of 224-Ra leads to the conclusion that - according to the experience gained so far - 224-Ra is very useful in the treatment of this disease, if there is an absolute indication. (orig./MG) [de

  9. Risk evaluation - conventional and low level effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, V.P.; Varma, M.N.

    1984-04-01

    Any discussion of the risk of exposure to potentially-hazardous agents in the environment inevitably involves the question of whether the dose effect curve is of the threshold or linear, non-threshold type. A principal objective of this presentation is to show that the function is actually two separate relationships, each representing distinctly different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different disciplines (i.e., the threshold function, of Pharmacology, Toxicology and Medicine [PTM]; the linear, non-threshold function, of Public Health including safety and accident statistics [PHS]). It is shown that low-level exposure (LLE) to radiation falls clearly in the PHS category. A function for cell dose vs. the fraction of single cell quantal responses is characterized, which reflects the absolute and relative sensitivities of cells. Acceptance of this function would obviate any requirement for the use in Radiation Protection of the concepts of a standard radiation, Q, dose equivalent and rem. 9 references, 4 figures

  10. Health effects of low-level ionising radiation: biological basis for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upton, A.C.

    1987-01-01

    The biological basis for risk assessment is discussed. The risks of carcinogenic effects, teratogenic effects, and genetic (heritable) effects are estimated to vary in proportion with the dose of radiation in the low-dose domain; however, the risks also appear to vary with the LET of the radiation, age at the time of irradiation, and other variables. Although the data suffice to place the risks in perspective with other hazards of modern life, further research to refine the reliability of the risk assessment is called for. (author)

  11. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oehmen, Josef; Olechowski, Alison; Kenley, C. Robert

    2014-01-01

    Risk management is receiving much attention, as it is seen as a method to improve cost, schedule, and technical performance of new product development programs. However, there is a lack of empirical research that investigates the effective integration of specific risk management practices proposed...... skills and resources; (2) Tailor risk management to and integrate it with new product development; (3) Quantify impacts of risks on your main objectives; (4) Support all critical decisions with risk management results; (5) Monitor and review your risks, risk mitigation actions, and risk management...... by various standards with new product development programs and their association with various dimensions of risk management success. Based on a survey of 291 product development programs, this paper investigates the association of risk management practices with five categories of product development program...

  13. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

    2009-01-01

    Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

  15. effectiveness of technological options for minimising production risks

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    preferred technologies in reducing production risk related to climate variability in Eastern Uganda. Data for this study were ..... Set of technological options employed by farmers to reduce climate-induced production risk. Dummy = 1 if farmer. 0.71. 0.46 ..... cation exchange capacity for holding nutrients against leaching loss.

  16. Comparative effectiveness of 50g glucose challenge test and risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of 50g glucose challenge test and risk factor based screening in detection of ... Mean maternal and gestational ages at recruitment were 30.8+1.2 years and ... Predictive Value, PPV - 20%) compared to risk factors only (PPV- 11.1%).

  17. Tests of control in the Audit Risk Model : Effective? Efficient?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokdijk, J.H. (Hans)

    2004-01-01

    Lately, the Audit Risk Model has been subject to criticism. To gauge its validity, this paper confronts the Audit Risk Model as incorporated in International Standard on Auditing No. 400, with the real life situations faced by auditors in auditing financial statements. This confrontation exposes

  18. Assessing Risk Management: How Effective Is Your Program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kelle L.

    2015-01-01

    Injuries may occur more often in physical education due to the nature of the activities taught. Because of this, the issue of negligence is an important concern. Risk management is one method physical educators use to decrease the occurrence of injuries and negligence. The purpose of this article is to introduce a Risk Management Inventory that…

  19. Comprehensive approach for probabilistic risk assessment (CAPRA): international initiative for disaster risk management effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Cardona, Omar D.; Ordaz Schroder, Mario Gustavo; Reinoso, Eduardo; Yamín, Luis; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

    2010-01-01

    Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific metho...

  20. CAPRA - Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment: international initiative for risk management effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Cardona, Omar Darío; Ordaz, Mario G.; Reinoso, Eduardo; Yamín, Luis; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

    2012-01-01

    Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific metho...

  1. Effectiveness of insurance risk management under crisis conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.G. Goncharenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article some historical aspects of insurance, domestic trends in insurance risk management with aspects of international experience, the modern role of insurance and insurance companies in a market economy, factors of risk management system and the nature of the insurance portfolio are analyzed. Factors of risk events in insurance, the spectrum of risks, imbalance of the insurance market in crisis conditions are outlined; expert’s estimations of the insurance market in recent years are examined. Problems of insurance business perform are determined, especially insurance risk management. The ability to use the provisions of European insurance regulation on internal domestic insurance market is analyzed, and also the aspects of integration of Ukrainian insurance market are determined.

  2. Understanding Risk Tolerance and Building an Effective Safety Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loyd, David

    2018-01-01

    Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.

  3. Influencing feelings of cancer risk: direct and moderator effects of affectively laden phrases in risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; Lechner, Lilian; de Vries, Hein

    2015-01-01

    Evidence is accumulating for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviors, but best practices for influencing these feelings are limited. This study investigated the direct and moderational influence of affectively laden phrases in cancer risk messages. Two experimental studies were conducted in relation to different cancer-related behaviors--sunbed use (n = 112) and red meat consumption (n = 447)--among student and nonstudent samples. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: (a) a cognitive message using cognitively laden phrases or (b) an affective message using affectively laden phrases. The results revealed that affective phrases did not directly influence feelings of risk in both studies. Evidence for a moderational influence was found in Study 2, suggesting that affective information strengthened the relation between feelings of risk and intention (i.e., participants relied more on their feelings in the decision-making process after exposure to affective information). These findings suggest that solely using affective phrases in risk communication may not be sufficient to directly influence feelings of risk and other methods need to be explored in future research. Moreover, research is needed to replicate our preliminary indications for a moderational influence of affective phrases to advance theory and practice.

  4. Climate effect on forest fire static risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodini, Antonella; Cossu, Antonello; Entrade, Erika; Fiorucci, Paolo; Gaetani, Francesco; Parodi, Ulderica

    2010-05-01

    The availability of a long data series of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allow to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. In addition, climate indexes obtained from the analysis of time series with more than 20 years of complete records allow to understand the role of climate on fire regime, both in terms of direct effects on fire behaviour and the effect on vegetation cover. In particular, indices of extreme events have been considered like CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and HWDI (heat wave duration index: maximum period > 5 consecutive days with Tmax >5°C above the 1961-1990 daily Tmax normal), together with the usual indices describing rainfall and temperature regimes. As a matter of fact, based on this information it is possible to develop statistical methods for the objective classification of forest fire static risk at regional scale. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in Liguria and is almost absent in Sardinia. What is common in the two regions is the widespread presence of shrub species frequently spread by fire. The analysis in the two regions thus allows in a rather limited area to consider almost all the species and the climate conditions that characterize the Mediterranean region. More than 10000 fire perimeters that burnt about 800 km2 were considered in the analysis

  5. The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

    2014-12-01

    Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

  6. Plasma methionine and risk of acute myocardial infarction: Effect modification by established risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Indu; Lysne, Vegard; Seifert, Reinhard; Svingen, Gard F T; Ueland, Per M; Nygård, Ottar K

    2018-05-01

    Methionine (Met) is an essential amino acid involved in methylation reactions and lipid metabolism. A Met-deficient diet may cause hepatic lipid accumulation, which is considered an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis. However, the prospective relationship between circulating Met and incident acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown. We studied the associations of plasma Met and incident AMI in 4156 patients (77% men; median age 62 years) with stable angina pectoris, among whom the majority received lipid lowering therapy with statins. Risk associations were estimated using Cox-regression analyses. Plasma Met was negatively related to age, serum levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and apolipoprotein (apo) B at baseline (all p≤0.05). During a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 534 (12.8%) patients experienced an AMI. There was no overall association between plasma Met and incident AMI; however, plasma Met was inversely associated with risk among patients with high as compared to low levels of serum LDL-C or apo B 100 (multivariate adjusted HRs per SD [95% CI] 0.84 [0.73-0.96] and 0.83[0.73-0.95], respectively; p-interaction ≤0.02). Trends towards an inverse risk relationship were also observed among those younger than 62 years and patients without diabetes or hypertension. Low plasma Met was associated with increased risk of AMI in patients with high circulating levels of atherogenic lipids, but also in subgroups with presumably lower cardiovascular risk. The determinants of Met status and their relation with residual cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary heart disease should be further investigated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Gary A.

    Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.

  8. The effect of flight-related behaviour on the risk of venous thrombosis after air travel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schreijer, Anja J.M.; Cannegieter, Suzanne C.; Doggen, Catharina Jacoba Maria; Rosendaal, Frits R.

    2009-01-01

    In a case–control study including 11 033 participants (The Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of risk factors for venous thrombosis study) on risk factors of venous thrombosis, we studied the effect of flight-related behaviour on the risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. Patients

  9. Effects of Positive Affect on Risk Perceptions in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Claudia M.; Silbereisen, Rainer K.

    2011-01-01

    Affective influences may play a key role in adolescent risk taking, but have rarely been studied. Using an audiovisual method of affect induction, two experimental studies examined the effect of positive affect on risk perceptions in adolescence and young adulthood. Outcomes were risk perceptions regarding drinking alcohol, smoking a cigarette,…

  10. Novel two-tiered approach of ecological risk assessment for pesticide mixtures based on joint effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dayong; Mao, Haichen; Lv, Huichao; Zheng, Yong; Peng, Conghu; Hou, Shaogang

    2018-02-01

    Ecological risk assessments for mixtures have attracted considerable attention. In this study, 38 pesticides in the real environment were taken as objects and their toxicities to different organisms from three trophic levels were employed to assess the ecological risk of the mixture. The first tier assessment was based on the CA effect and the obtained sum of risk quotients (SRQ species-CA ) were 3.06-9.22. The second tier assessment was based on non-CA effects and the calculated SRQ species-TU are 5.37-9.29 using joint effects (TU sum ) as modified coefficients, which is higher than SRQ species-CA and indicates that ignoring joint effects might run the risk of underestimating the actual impact of pesticide mixtures. Due to the influences of synergistic and antagonistic effects, risk contribution of components to mixture risks based on non-CA effects are different from those based on the CA effect. Moreover, it was found that the top 8 dominating components explained 95.5%-99.8% of mixture risks in this study. The dominating components are similar in the two tiers for a given species. Accordingly, a novel two-tiered approach was proposed to assess the ecological risks of mixtures based on joint effects. This study provides new insights for ecological risk assessments with the consideration of joint effects of components in the pesticide mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Statin Side Effects: Weigh the Benefits and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... may also reduce some of the cholesterol-lowering benefits your medication has. Another option is to take the medication every other day. Take it easy when exercising. Unaccustomed vigorous exercise might increase the risk of ...

  12. Pricing risk and ambiguity : The effect of perspective taking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trautmann, S.T.; Schmidt, U.

    2012-01-01

    In the valuation of uncertain prospects, a difference is often observed between selling and buying perspectives. This paper distinguishes between risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities) in decisions under uncertainty and shows that the valuation disparity increases under

  13. Effectiveness evaluation of contingency sum as a risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... manage risks prone projects have adopted several methods, one of which is contingency sum. ... initial project cost, cost overrun and percentage allowed for contingency.

  14. The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IIRC (2013b: 3), integrated thinking takes into account the connectivity and ... historical information and provides investors and other stakeholders with .... in the disclosure of risks and opportunities by using a sample of the top 100 JSE-.

  15. Risk taking and effective R&D management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banholzer, William F; Vosejpka, Laura J

    2011-01-01

    Several key strategies can be used to manage the risk associated with innovation to create maximum value. These include balancing the timing of investments versus cash flows, management of fads, prioritization across the company, savvy portfolio management, and a system of metrics that measure real success. Successful R&D managers will do whatever is necessary to manage the risks associated with an R&D program and stick to their long-term strategy.

  16. The effects of socioeconomic status on stroke risk and outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Marshall, Iain James; Wang, Yanzhong; Crichton, Siobhan Laura; McKevitt, Christopher John; Rudd, Anthony; Wolfe, Charles David Alexander

    2015-01-01

    The latest evidence on socioeconomic status and stroke shows that stroke not only disproportionately affects low-income and middle-income countries, but also socioeconomically deprived populations within high-income countries. These disparities are reflected not only in risk of stroke but also in short-term and long-term outcomes after stroke. Increased average levels of conventional risk factors (eg, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, excessive alcohol intake, smoking, obesity, and sedentary lif...

  17. Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features, driver age and risk sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Jolene A; Beanland, Vanessa; Filtness, Ashleigh J

    2017-10-03

    impact changes; however, the effect was larger for urban environments. There were also effects of object type, with certain objects rated as consistently more safety relevant. In urban scenes, changes involving pedestrians were rated significantly more hazardous than all other objects, and in rural scenes, changes involving animals were rated as significantly more hazardous. Notably, hazard ratings were found to be higher in urban compared with rural driving environments, even when changes were matched between environments. This study demonstrates that drivers perceive rural roads as less risky than urban roads, even when similar scenarios occur in both environments. Age did not affect hazard ratings. Instead, the findings suggest that the assessment of risk posed by hazards is influenced more by individual differences in risk sensitivity. This highlights the need for driver education to account for appraisal of hazards' risk and relevance, in addition to hazard detection, when considering factors that promote road safety.

  18. Informing patients: the influence of numeracy, framing, and format of side effect information on risk perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ellen; Hart, P Sol; Fraenkel, Liana

    2011-01-01

    Given the importance of effective patient communication, findings about influences on risk perception in nonmedical domains need replication in medical domains. To examine whether numeracy influences risk perceptions when different information frames and number formats are used to present medication risks. The authors manipulated the frame and number format of risk information in a 3 (frame: positive, negative, combined) × 2 (number format: frequency, percentage) design. Participants from an Internet sample (N = 298), randomly assigned to condition, responded to a single, hypothetical scenario. The main effects and interactions of numeracy, framing, and number format on risk perception were measured. Participants given the positive frame perceived the medication as less risky than those given the negative frame. Mean risk perceptions for the combined frame fell between the positive and negative frames. Numeracy did not moderate these framing effects. Risk perceptions also varied by number format and numeracy, with less-numerate participants given risk information in a percentage format perceiving the medication as less risky than when given risk information in a frequency format; highly numerate participants perceived similar risks in both formats. The generalizability of the findings is limited due to the use of non-patients, presented a hypothetical scenario. Given the design, one cannot know whether observed differences would translate into clinically significant differences in patient behaviors. Frequency formats appear to increase risk perceptions over percentage formats for less-numerate respondents. Health communicators need to be aware that different formats generate different risk perceptions among patients varying in numeracy.

  19. Food Safety in the Domestic Environment: The Effect of Consumer Risk Information on Human Disease Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, M.J.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Asselt, van E.D.; Jong, de A.E.I.; Frewer, L.J.; Jonge, de R.

    2008-01-01

    The improvement of food safety in the domestic environment requires a transdisciplinary approach, involving interaction between both the social and natural sciences. This approach is applied in a study on risks associated with Campylobacter on broiler meat. First, some web-based information

  20. Weed risk assessments are an effective component of invasion risk management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gordon, D. R.; Flory, S. L.; Lieurance, D.; Hulme, P. E.; Buddenhagen, C.; Caton, B.; Champion, P. D.; Culley, T. M.; Daehler, C. C.; Essl, F.; Hill, J. E.; Keller, R. P.; Kohl, L.; Koop, A. L.; Kumschick, S.; Lodge, D. M.; Mack, R. N.; Meyerson, L. A.; Pallipparambil, G. R.; Panetta, F. D.; Porter, R.; Pyšek, Petr; Quinn, L. D.; Richardson, D. M.; Simberloff, D.; Vila, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 1 (2016), s. 81-83 ISSN 1939-7291 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : weed risk assessment * interspecific variation * invasions Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.952, year: 2016

  1. Risk management with regard to the effect of human factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important components in today's market is a party decision-making under risk and uncertainty. The first step in making such decisions - to adequately process the information for estimating the future value of assets and the interests of investors probabilities of each particular scenario. The next step is to choose the alternative that has the greatest utility for the investor. Each of these steps is associated with numerous difficulties, the roots of which stem from the specificity of human psychology. The article notes that an integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is being formed-tion, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of “risk” becomes now particularly relevant-ness. The article deals with along with economic forecasts of the risks and the human factor in decision-tions solutions. Along with economic forecasts, the report focuses on psychological problems and attempts to take into account the human factor in decision-making at the forecast of risks arising in the company. The important parameters are the status and position of the person in the society, as well as its social well-being. Analysis Meto-ing risk assessment concluded that the need to develop new models and methods of risk management, taking into account the four-lovecheskogo factor. Economic psychology and its applications have developed into a special branch of economic knowledge - the so-called behavioral economics, which surely develops a wide range of economic issues - from the actual theory of individual behavior to the problems of public choice and the financial economy. The most interesting item is the fact that the concept of “risk” is considered from different points of view - as the economist-mathematician with the position, and a psychologist.

  2. Enterprise risk management: Factors associated with effective implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godson K. Mensah

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is undergoing a great change, as organizations shift from the traditional and compartmental to an enterprise wide approach. Consequently, enterprise risk management (ERM is gaining global attention among risk management professionals and academics. The demand for the adoption of ERM has led to several companies embracing it, yet its implementation has become challenging. Research shows that ERM approach emphasizes a holistic approach for assessing and evaluating the risks that an organization faces as against the “silo” approach of the traditional methods. The extant literature shows that through the reduction of the risk that an organization faces, ERM is capable of improving the performance and value. The study used a non-experimental correlational approach to explore the relationship between the presence of a chief risk officer (CRO and an audit committee (AC, and the support of top management (TM in relation to the implementation of ERM. A survey instrument was provided to self-identified risk-management professionals who are members of Survey Monkey Audience Service database. The target sample frame requested for analysis using a power of .95 was (n = 119. However, the final number analyzed was (n = 134. Frequencies and percentages were conducted on the demographic survey items and regression and correlational analyses were also performed. The study findings show that there was a significant relationship between the role of a CRO, the presence of an AC, and the support of TM and the level of ERM deployment. The study also found significant correlations between management support level and CRO, and AC. In addition, a much strong positive correlation was noted between the presence of a CRO and an AC

  3. Method of risk estimates for genetic, leukemogenic and carcinogenic effects from medical and occupational exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-12-01

    For the risk estimate of fatal malignancies, an effective dose was proposed on the basis of the assumption that the risk should be equal whether the whole body irradiated uniformly or whether there is non-uniform irradiation. The effective dose was defined by the product of organ or tissue doses and a weighting factor representing the proportion of risk factor for a fatal malignancy resulting from organ or tissue irradiation to the total malignant factor. The risk of malignancies can be derived by multiplying the malignant significant factor by the product of the risk factor and the effective dose. For the genetic risk, a significant factor was a relative child expectancy and organ or tissue doses were gonad doses. And, for the leukemogenic risk, a significant factor was the leukemia significant factor and organ or tissue dose was mean bone marrow dose. The present method makes it easy to estimate the risk for individuals and population from medical and occupational exposures. The variation with age and sex of risk rates for stochastic effects was discussed, and the present data on risk rates were compared with the variation of risk rates recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

  4. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  5. Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

    1988-03-01

    The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organized as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab

  6. Levee Setbacks: An Innovative, Cost Effective, and Sustainable Solution for Improved Flood Risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-30

    ER D C/ EL S R- 17 -3 Levee Setbacks: An Innovative , Cost-Effective, and Sustainable Solution for Improved Flood Risk Management En vi...EL SR-17-3 June 2017 Levee Setbacks: An Innovative , Cost-Effective, and Sustainable Solution for Improved Flood Risk Management David L. Smith...alternative view point is necessary. ERDC/EL SR-17-3 4 Levee setbacks are a relatively recent innovation in Corps flood risk management practice

  7. The Racing-Game Effect: Why Do Video Racing Games Increase Risk-Taking Inclinations?

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Morton, Thomas; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Postmes, Tom; Frey, Dieter; Kubitzki, Jörg; Odenwälder, Jörg

    2009-01-01

    The present studies investigated why video racing games increase players’ risk-taking inclinations. Four studies reveal that playing video racing games increases risk taking in a subsequent simulated road traffic situation, as well as risk-promoting cognitions and emotions, blood pressure,sensation seeking, and attitudes toward reckless driving. Study 1 ruled out the role of experimental demand in creating such effects. Studies 2 and 3 showed that the effect of playing video racing games on r...

  8. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  9. Pricing risk and ambiguity: the effect of perspective taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautmann, Stefan T; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2012-01-01

    In the valuation of uncertain prospects, a difference is often observed between selling and buying perspectives. This paper distinguishes between risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities) in decisions under uncertainty and shows that the valuation disparity increases under ambiguity compared to risk. It is found that both the comparative versus noncomparative evaluation of risky and ambiguous prospects and the uniqueness of the valuation perspective (either seller or buyer) moderate this increase in the disparity under ambiguity. The finding is consistent with recent theoretical accounts of pricing under uncertainty. We discuss implications for market behaviour and for the ambiguity paradigm as a research tool.

  10. Interactive effects between radiation and other factors on cancer risk among A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akiba, Suminori

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews RERF cancer studies conducted to examine interactive effects between radiation and epidemiological risk factors, including smoking habits, occupation, dietary habits and OB/GYN history. Special emphasis is placed on a review of studies of interactive effects between cigarette smoking and radiation on lung cancer risk. Comments on these studies are made and proposals for future studies are presented. (author)

  11. Parental Incarceration and Multiple Risk Experiences: Effects on Family Dynamics and Children's Delinquency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaron, Lauren; Dallaire, Danielle H.

    2010-01-01

    Children of incarcerated parents are exposed to factors that place them at risk for delinquency. Few studies have examined the effects of having an incarcerated parent after controlling for other experiences such as contextual risk factors and family processes. Past studies have also not examined effects of recent, but not current, parental…

  12. Income as mediator of the effect of occupation on the risk of myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ingelise; Gamborg, Michael; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    To investigate whether the effect of occupational grade on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) is mediated by income with different aspects of income taken into account.......To investigate whether the effect of occupational grade on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) is mediated by income with different aspects of income taken into account....

  13. Effects of Lactobacillus casei Shirota intake on caries risk in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yng-Tzer Joseph Lin

    2017-06-01

    Conclusion: There may be a potential cariostatic effect of short-term Yakult intake in reducing functional biofilm acidogenicity in children with certain oral biofilm and risk profile. Further studies may be needed to validate this probiotic effect. Quality risk assessment may be critical prior to prescribing/recommending Yakult as an adjunct caries-preventive treatment for children.

  14. Assaying the effect of levodopa on the evaluation of risk in healthy humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    Full Text Available In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20 employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes--skewness, dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback.

  15. Corporate governance practices and financial performance: The mediating effect of risk management committee at manufacturing firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyanus Herman Halim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the effect of the Risk Management Committee on firm performance, and the intervening effect of the Risk Management Committee on the relationship between Corporate Governance, Firm Size, Financial Reporting Risk, and Firm Performance. Using the purposive sampling method, 299 firms were selected as the sample. This study used secondary data obtained from the companies’ annual reports, and the data was then analyze using SPSS, version 20.0. The results of this study indicate that the entire research hypothesis is accepted. This study found that the Risk Management Committee affects firm performance, and that Risk Management Committee acts as the intervening variable in the relationship between corporate governance, firm size, and financial reporting risk on firm performance. The existence of RMC would facilitate the company to control better the quality of financial reporting risks.

  16. The Moderating Effect of Mental Toughness: Perception of Risk and Belief in the Paranormal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinkwater, Kenneth; Dagnall, Neil; Denovan, Andrew; Parker, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    This research demonstrates that higher levels of mental toughness provide cognitive-perceptual processing advantages when evaluating risk. No previous research, however, has examined mental toughness in relation to perception of risk and paranormal belief (a variable associated with distorted perception of causality and elevated levels of perceived risk). Accordingly, the present paper investigated relationships between these factors. A sample of 174 participants completed self-report measures assessing mental toughness, general perception of risk, and paranormal belief. Responses were analyzed via correlations and moderation analyses. Results revealed that mental toughness correlated negatively with perception of risk and paranormal belief, whereas paranormal belief correlated positively with perception of risk. For the moderation effects, simple slopes analyses indicated that high levels of MT and subfactors of commitment and confidence reduced the strength of association between paranormal belief and perceived risk. Therefore, MT potentially acts as a protective factor among individuals who believe in the paranormal, reducing the tendency to perceive elevated levels of risk.

  17. Managing major chemical accidents in China: Towards effective risk information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, G.; Zhang, L.; Lu, Y.; Mol, A.P.J.

    2011-01-01

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major

  18. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  19. THE EFFECT OF CREDIT LINES AND RISKS ON OPERATIONS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    credit risks that had weakened the microfinance sub sector and its ability to achieve ... Institutional structures for the provision of microcredit vary and may be ... Most of these poor people also earn low income and they are .... They lack access to ... are women, poorly trained and playing dual roles of provider and caregiver.

  20. Risks and health effects in operating room personnel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg-Dijkmeijer, Marleen L.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.; Sluiter, Judith K.

    2011-01-01

    The objective was to find the factors that pose a possible health risk to OR personnel. Work-related health problems of operating room (OR) personnel were signalled by an occupational physician and preparations for the development of new Worker's Health Surveillance (WHS) were started with a

  1. The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... between strategy and the risks and opportunities faced by the organisation. For this purpose, a web-based research questionnaire was sent to high-level implementers of integrated reporting at companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, where integrated reporting is a listing requirement.

  2. Truck transport of RAM: Risk effects of avoiding metropolitan areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1997-11-01

    In the transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), stakeholders are generally most concerned about risks in high population density areas along transportation routes because of the perceived high consequences of potential accidents. The most significant portions of a transcontinental route and an alternative examined previously were evaluated again using population density data derived from US Census Block data. This method of characterizing population that adjoins route segments offers improved resolution of population density variations, especially in high population density areas along typical transport routes. Calculated incident free doses and accident dose risks for these routes, and the rural, suburban and urban segments are presented for comparison of their relative magnitudes. The results indicate that modification of this route to avoid major metropolitan areas through use of non-Interstate highways increases total risk yet does not eliminate a relatively small urban component of the accident dose risk. This conclusion is not altered by improved resolution of route segments adjoining high density populations

  3. Trait Anxiety and Economic Risk Avoidance Are Not Necessarily Associated: Evidence from the Framing Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Runguo; Broster, Lucas S; Jiang, Yang; Xu, Rui; Yang, Qiwei; Xu, Pengfei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2017-01-01

    According to previous literature, trait anxiety is related to the tendency to choose safety options during risk decision-making, that is, risk avoidance. In our opinion, anxious people's risk preference might actually reflect their hypersensitivity to emotional information. To examine this hypothesis, a decision-making task that could elicit the framing effect was employed. The framing effect indicates that risk preference could be modulated by emotional messages contained in the description (i.e., frame) of options. The behavioral results have showed the classic framing effect. In addition, individual level of trait anxiety was positively correlated with the framing effect size. However, trait anxiety was not correlated with risk-avoidance ratio in any condition. Finally, the relationship between anxiety and the framing effect remained significant after the level of depression was also taken into account. The theoretical significance and the major limitations of this study are discussed.

  4. Dose related risk and effect assessment model (DREAM) -- A more realistic approach to risk assessment of offshore discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnsen, S.; Furuholt, E.

    1995-01-01

    Risk assessment of discharges from offshore oil and gas production to the marine environment features determination of potential environmental concentration (PEC) levels and no observed effect concentration (NOEC) levels. The PEC values are normally based on dilution of chemical components in the actual discharge source in the recipient, while the NOEC values are determined by applying a safety factor to acute toxic effects from laboratory tests. The DREAM concept focuses on realistic exposure doses as function of contact time and dilution, rather than fixed exposure concentrations of chemicals in long time exposure regimes. In its present state, the DREAM model is based on a number of assumptions with respect to the link between real life exposure doses and effects observed in laboratory tests. A research project has recently been initiated to develop the concept further, with special focus on chronic effects of different chemical compounds on the marine ecosystem. One of the questions that will be addressed is the link between exposure time, dose, concentration and effect. Validation of the safety factors applied for transforming acute toxic data into NOEC values will also be included. The DREAM model has been used by Statoil for risk assessment of discharges from new and existing offshore oil and gas production fields, and has been found to give a much more realistic results than conventional risk assessment tools. The presentation outlines the background for the DREAM approach, describes the model in its present state, discusses further developments and applications, and shows a number of examples on the performance of DREAM

  5. Study on effective provision of nuclear risk information over the internet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shobu, Nobuhiro

    2005-01-01

    'Risk information navigator (http://ricotti,jnc.go.jp/risknavi/)', an internet tool for arousing interest in risks and improving risk literacy, has been developed as the contents for the official website of Techno Community Square 'RICOTTI' (http://ricotti,jnc.go.jp/) at TOKAI village. This report discusses the effective provision of nuclear risk information toward foreigners who use English in Japan in order to improve their risk literacy. The contents are attached to this report with the CD-R media. (author)

  6. Risk:reward sharing contracts in the oil industry: the effects of bonus:penalty schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, A.G.; Stephen, L.

    1999-01-01

    Partnering and alliancing among oil companies and their contractors have become common in the oil industry in recent years. The risk:reward mechanisms established very often incorporate bonus/penalty schemes in relation to agreed base values. This paper examines the efficiency requirements of such schemes. The effects of project cost and completion risks on the risk: reward positions of field investors and contractors with and without bonus/penalty schemes are examined with the aid of Monte Carlo simulation analysis. The schemes increase the total risk for contractors and have consequence for their cost of capital and optimal risk-bearing arrangements within the industry. (author)

  7. Are engineered nano iron oxide particles safe? an environmental risk assessment by probabilistic exposure, effects and risk modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Deng, Lei; Caballero-Guzman, Alejandro; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-12-01

    Nano iron oxide particles are beneficial to our daily lives through their use in paints, construction materials, biomedical imaging and other industrial fields. However, little is known about the possible risks associated with the current exposure level of engineered nano iron oxides (nano-FeOX) to organisms in the environment. The goal of this study was to predict the release of nano-FeOX to the environment and assess their risks for surface waters in the EU and Switzerland. The material flows of nano-FeOX to technical compartments (waste incineration and waste water treatment plants) and to the environment were calculated with a probabilistic modeling approach. The mean value of the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of nano-FeOX in surface waters in the EU for a worst-case scenario (no particle sedimentation) was estimated to be 28 ng/l. Using a probabilistic species sensitivity distribution, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was determined from ecotoxicological data. The risk characterization ratio, calculated by dividing the PEC by PNEC values, was used to characterize the risks. The mean risk characterization ratio was predicted to be several orders of magnitude smaller than 1 (1.4 × 10 - 4 ). Therefore, this modeling effort indicates that only a very limited risk is posed by the current release level of nano-FeOX to organisms in surface waters. However, a better understanding of the hazards of nano-FeOX to the organisms in other ecosystems (such as sediment) needs to be assessed to determine the overall risk of these particles to the environment.

  8. The Effect of Subjective Risk Attitudes and Overconfidence on Risk Taking Behaviors: A Experimental Study Based on Traders of the Chinese Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qi-An; Xiao, Yinghong; Chen, Hui; Chen, Liang

    Our research analyzes the effect of the traders’ subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence on their risk taking behaviors on the Chinese Stock Market by experimental study method. We find that investors’ risk taking behavior is significantly affected by their subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence. Our results also argue that the objective return and volatility of stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence and optimism have an significant impact on risk taking behavior In line with theoretical models.

  9. The Danish fat tax—Effects on consumption patterns and risk of ischaemic heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Malene; Pisinger, Charlotta Holm; Toft, Ulla

    2015-01-01

    sale of the included foodstuffs decreased by 0.9%. The fat tax was associated with marginal changes in population risk of IHD. One estimate suggests an increased population risk of IHD by 0.2% and the other estimate suggests that the risk of IHD decreased by 0.3%. Conclusions: The Danish fat tax had......Objective: To examine the effects on consumption and risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) of the Danish fat tax, effective from October 2011 to January 2013. Methods: We used comprehensive retail outlet data on the sale of twelve foodstuff categories targeted by the fat tax. Data covered January...

  10. Organizing Effects of Testosterone and Economic Behavior: Not Just Risk Taking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brañas-Garza, Pablo; Rustichini, Aldo

    2011-01-01

    Recent literature emphasizes the role that testosterone, as well as markers indicating early exposure to T and its organizing effect on the brain (such as the ratio of second to fourth finger, ), have on performance in financial markets. These results may suggest that the main effect of T, either circulating or in fetal exposure, on economic behavior occurs through the increased willingness to take risks. However, these findings indicate that traders with a low digit ratio are not only more profitable, but more able to survive in the long run, thus the effect might consist of more than just lower risk aversion. In addition, recent literature suggests a positive correlation between abstract reasoning ability and higher willingness to take risks. To test the two hypotheses of testosterone on performance in financial activities (effect on risk attitude versus a complex effect involving risk attitude and reasoning ability), we gather data on the three variables in a sample of 188 ethnically homogeneous college students (Caucasians). We measure a digit ratio, abstract reasoning ability with the Raven Progressive Matrices task, and risk attitude with choice among lotteries. Low digit ratio in men is associated with higher risk taking and higher scores in abstract reasoning ability when a combined measure of risk aversion over different tasks is used. This explains both the higher performance and higher survival rate observed in traders, as well as the observed correlation between abstract reasoning ability and risk taking. We also analyze how much of the total effect of digit ratio on risk attitude is direct, and how much is mediated. Mediation analysis shows that a substantial part of the effect of T on attitude to risk is mediated by abstract reasoning ability. PMID:22242144

  11. Increasing Effectiveness and Efficiency Through Risk-Based Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Shaw and Henry McKay, both University of Chicago professors, began using maps to understand juvenile delinquency better in Chicago, IL.36 In the...André-Michel Guerry’s Ordonnateur Statistique: The First Statistical Calculator?,” The American Statistician 66, no. 3 (August 1, 2012): 195–200...micro or macro levels using basic inferential statistics .”91 5. Protecting Civil Rights and Liberties It is also important to note that a risk

  12. Enhancing the effectiveness of IST through risk-based techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floyd, S.D.

    1996-12-01

    Current IST requirements were developed mainly through deterministic-based methods. While this approach has resulted in an adequate level of safety and reliability for pumps and valves, insights from probabilistic safety assessments suggest a better safety focus can be achieved at lower costs. That is, some high safety impact pumps and valves are currently not tested under the IST program and should be added, while low safety impact valves could be tested at significantly greater intervals than allowed by the current IST program. The nuclear utility industry, through the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), has developed a draft guideline for applying risk-based techniques to focus testing on those pumps and valves with a high safety impact while reducing test frequencies on low safety impact pumps and valves. The guideline is being validated through an industry pilot application program that is being reviewed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NEI and the ASME maintain a dialogue on the two groups` activities related to risk-based IST. The presenter will provide an overview of the NEI guideline, discuss the methodological approach for applying risk-based technology to IST and provide the status of the industry pilot plant effort.

  13. Psoriasis patients' willingness to accept side-effect risks for improved treatment efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauf, Teresa L; Yang, Jui-Chen; Kimball, Alexa B; Sundaram, Murali; Bao, Yanjun; Okun, Martin; Mulani, Parvez; Hauber, A Brett; Johnson, F Reed

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies suggest that efficacy is more important than side-effect risks to psoriasis patients. However, those studies did not consider potentially fatal risks of biologic treatments. To quantify the risks patients are willing to accept for improvements in psoriasis symptoms. Adults with a self-reported physician diagnosis of psoriasis were recruited through the National Psoriasis Foundation. Using a discrete-choice experiment, patients completed a series of nine choice questions, each including a pair of hypothetical treatments. Treatments were defined by severity of plaques, body surface area (BSA), and 10-year risks of tuberculosis, serious infection and lymphoma. For complete clearance of 25% BSA with mild plaques, respondents (n = 1608) were willing to accept a 20% (95% confidence interval: 9-26%) risk of serious infection, 10% (5-15%) risk of tuberculosis and 2% (1-3%) risk of lymphoma. For complete clearance of 25% BSA with severe plaques, respondents were willing to accept a 54% (48-62%) risk of serious infection, 36% (28-49%) risk of tuberculosis and 8% (7-9%) risk of lymphoma. Respondents were asked to evaluate hypothetical scenarios. Actual treatment choices may differ. Respondents were willing to accept risks above likely clinical exposures for improvements in psoriasis symptoms. Individual risk tolerances may vary.

  14. We can do better than effective dose for estimating or comparing low-dose radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, D.J.

    2012-01-01

    The effective dose concept was designed to compare the generic risks of exposure to different radiation fields. More commonly these days, it is used to estimate or compare radiation-induced cancer risks. For various reasons, effective dose represents flawed science: for instance, the tissue-specific weighting factors used to calculate effective dose are a subjective mix of different endpoints; and the marked and differing age and gender dependencies for different health detriment endpoints are not taken into account. This paper suggests that effective dose could be replaced with a new quantity, ‘effective risk’, which, like effective dose, is a weighted sum of equivalent doses to different tissues. Unlike effective dose, where the tissue-dependent weighting factors are a set of generic, subjective committee-defined numbers, the weighting factors for effective risk are simply evaluated tissue-specific lifetime cancer risks per unit equivalent dose. Effective risk, which has the potential to be age and gender specific if desired, would perform the same comparative role as effective dose, be just as easy to estimate, be less prone to misuse, be more directly understandable, and would be based on solid science. An added major advantage is that it gives the users some feel for the actual numerical values of the radiation risks they are trying to control.

  15. Reinforcing effects of non-pathogenic bacteria and predation risk: from physiology to life history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2014-10-01

    The important ecological role of predation risk in shaping populations, communities and ecosystems is becoming increasingly clear. In this context, synergistic effects between predation risk and other natural stressors on prey organisms are gaining attention. Although non-pathogenic bacteria can be widespread in aquatic ecosystems, their role in mediating effects of predation risk has been ignored. We here address the hypothesis that non-pathogenic bacteria may reinforce the negative effects of predation risk in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella. We found synergistic effects for all three life history variables studied: mortality increased, growth reductions were magnified and bacterial load was higher when both non-lethal stressors were combined. The combined exposure to the bacterium and predation risk considerably impaired the two key antipredator mechanisms of the damselfly larvae: they no longer reduced their food intake under predation risk and showed a synergistic reduction in escape swimming speed. The reinforcing negative effects on the fitness-related traits could be explained by the observed synergistic effects on food intake, swimming muscle mass, immune function and oxidative damage. These are likely widespread consequences of energetic constraints and increased metabolic rates associated with the fight-or-flight response. We therefore hypothesize that the here documented synergistic interactions with non-pathogenic bacteria may be widespread. Our results highlight the ignored ecological role of non-pathogenic bacteria in reinforcing the negative effects of predation risk on prey organisms.

  16. Effect of unemployment on cardiovascular risk factors and mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagożdżon, P; Parszuto, J; Wrotkowska, M; Dydjow-Bendek, D

    2014-09-01

    Following the economic changes in Poland, increasing health discrepancies were observed during a period of 20 years, which may be partly attributable to the consequences of unemployment. To assess the association between unemployment, major cardiovascular risk factors and mental health. A cross-sectional study in which data were collected between 2009 and 2010 during preventive health examinations by an occupational medicine service in Gdansk, Poland. Data on blood pressure, resting heart rate, information about smoking habits, body mass index and history of use of mental health services were collected during these assessments. Multiple logistic regression was used during data analysis to adjust for age, gender, education and length of employment. Study participants comprised 3052 unemployed and 2059 employed individuals. After adjustment for age, gender, education and number of previous employments, the odds ratio (OR) for hypertension in relation to unemployment was 1.02 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.84-1.23]. There was a statistically significant negative association between being overweight and unemployment (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.66-0.99). Smoking was positively associated with unemployment after adjustment for age and sex (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.25-1.67). There was a positive relationship between mental ill-health and unemployment among study participants (OR = 2.05, 95% CI: 0.91-4.65), but this was not statistically significant. The patterns of major cardiovascular risk factors differed between unemployed and employed individuals in Poland. Our observations suggest employment status is a predictor of specific disease risk profiles; consequently, specific preventive measures are needed in unemployed individuals. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. [Risk assessment of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects in the use of food].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, O A; Karpova, M V

    2012-01-01

    Application of methodology for assessing the risk of diseases associated with consumption of contaminated foods, is aimed at predicting possible changes in the future and helps to create a framework for the prevention of negative effects on public health. The purpose of the study is assessment of health risks formed under the influence of chemical contaminants that pollute the food. Exponential average daily dose of receipt of chemicals in the body, non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were calculated.

  18. International financial linkages of Latin American banks: the effects of political risk and deposit dollarisation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramon-Ballester, Francisco; Wezel, Torsten

    2007-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the extent to which the financial linkages of Latin American banks with the exterior are influenced by political risk and deposit dollarisation. We find that the sum of banks’ foreign assets and liabilities is a function of risk-return considerations and excess domestic credit demand. An increase in political risk is shown to be associated with a build-up of foreign positions by the banking sector, but this adverse effect on the banking system is mitigated ...

  19. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

  20. Exploring risk communication - results of a research project focussed on effectiveness evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charrière, Marie; Bogaard, Thom; Junier, Sandra; Mostert, Erik

    2016-04-01

    The need for effective science communication and outreach efforts is widely acknowledged in the academic community. In the field of Disaster Risk Reduction, the importance of communication is clearly stressed, e.g. in the newly adopted Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (under the 1st priority of action: understanding disaster risk). Consequently, we see increasing risk communication activities. However, the effectiveness of these activities is rarely evaluated. To address this gap, several research activities were conducted in the context of the Marie Curie Initial Training Network "Changes", the results of which we will present and discuss. First, results of a literature review show, among others, that research on effectiveness is mainly focussed on the assessment of users' needs and their ability to understand the content, rather than on the final impact of the risk communication efforts. Moreover, lab-environment research is more often undertaken than assessment of real communication efforts. Second, a comparison between perceptions of risk managers and the general public of risk communication in a French Alps Valley highlighted a gap between the two groups in terms of amount of information needed (who wants more), the important topics to address (what) and the media to use (how). Third, interviews with developers of smartphone applications for disseminating avalanche risk information showed a variety of current practices and the absence of measurements of real their effectiveness. However, our analysis allowed identifying good practices that can be an inspiration for risk communication related to other hazards. Fourth, an exhibition has been set up following a collaborative approached based on stakeholder engagement. Using a pre/post-test design, the immediate impact of the exhibition, which aimed at increasing the risk awareness of the population (Ubaye Valley, France), was measured. The data obtained suggests that visiting the exhibition

  1. Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

  2. The Effects of the Interactive Strategies Approach on At-Risk Kindergartners' Spelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun Hwa; Scanlon, Donna M.

    2015-01-01

    This study focused on examining the effects of early literacy intervention on the emergence and development of at-risk kindergartners' spelling. Spelling data were selected from Scanlon et al.'s (2005) study which demonstrated the efficacy of reading intervention in reducing the incidence of at-risk children who show reading difficulties…

  3. Effect of Poverty on Risk Attitude of Rural Women Investors in Osun ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In investments, profit is the main reward for risk bearing. A riskless business may promote poverty. Poverty influences the capacities and willingness to acquire new knowledge and apply new technologies. This study sought mainly to determine the effect of poverty on risk attitude of rural women investors. The study area was ...

  4. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  5. Developing Effective Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategies: The Potential Role of Academic Institutions in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baytiyeh, Hoda

    2015-01-01

    Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…

  6. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

    1985-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

  7. An Investigation of Biases and Framing Effects for Risk Analysis: An Information Technology Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Stuart A.

    2012-01-01

    An elusive and problematic theme of risk management has been managers' ability to effectively measure information technology (IT) risk in terms of degree of impact and probability of occurrence. The background of this problem delves deep into the rational understanding of probability, expected value, economic behavior, and subjective judgment.…

  8. School-Based Drug Prevention among At-Risk Adolescents: Effects of ALERT Plus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longshore, Douglas; Ellickson, Phyllis L.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; St. Clair, Patricia A.

    2007-01-01

    In a recent randomized field trial, Ellickson et al. found the Project ALERT drug prevention curriculum curbed alcohol misuse and tobacco and marijuana use among eighth-grade adolescents. This article reports effects among ninth-grade at-risk adolescents. Comparisons between at-risk girls in ALERT Plus schools (basic curriculum extended to ninth…

  9. Suicide Risk in College Students: The Effects of Internet Addiction and Drug Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genctanirim Kurt, Dilek

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to identify the factors in suicide risk among college students by examining the direct and indirect effects of drug use, internet addiction, gender, and alcohol use on suicide risk. The sample of the study is composed of 975 students studying at different faculties of Ahi Evran University during the academic year 2011-2012. They…

  10. The effect of different cardiovascular risk presentation formats on intentions, understanding and emotional affect: a randomised controlled trial using a web-based risk formatter (protocol).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waldron, C.A.; Gallacher, J.; Weijden, G.D.E.M. van der; Newcombe, R.; Elwyn, G.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The future risk of heart disease can be predicted with increasing precision. However, more research is needed into how this risk is conveyed and presented. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of presenting cardiovascular risk in different formats on individuals' intention to

  11. HOW TO CALCULATE INFORMATION VALUE FOR EFFECTIVE SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Sajko

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The actual problem of information security (infosec risk assessment is determining the value of information property or asset. This is particularly manifested through the use of quantitative methodology in which it is necessary to state the information value in quantitative sizes. The aim of this paper is to describe the evaluation possibilities of business information values, and the criteria needed for determining importance of information. For this purpose, the dimensions of information values will be determined and the ways used to present the importance of information contents will be studied. There are two basic approaches that can be used in evaluation: qualitative and quantitative. Often they are combined to determine forms of information content. The proposed criterion is the three-dimension model, which combines the existing experiences (i.e. possible solutions for information value assessment with our own criteria. An attempt for structuring information value in a business environment will be made as well.

  12. Fair Value Accounting and the Cost of Equity Capital: The Moderating Effect of Risk Disclosure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dignah Ashwag

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Evidence thus far suggests fair value accounting poses risk and affects firms’ returns in some ways. This research, on a sample of Asian banks, improves the understanding of the information risk effect of fair value accounting by examining the moderating role of risk disclosure in the relationship between fair value accounting and the cost of equity capital. The results from a generalised method of moments on dynamic panel data analysis, show that risk disclosure mitigates the asymmetric information problem. Thus the findings contribute towards the standard setters’ effort in improving the practice of fair value accounting, and suggest that there are benefits in mandating disclosure especially for banks.

  13. Familial psychosocial risk classes and preschooler body mass index: The moderating effect of caregiver feeding style.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horodynski, Mildred A; Brophy-Herb, Holly E; Martoccio, Tiffany L; Contreras, Dawn; Peterson, Karen; Shattuck, Mackenzie; Senehi, Neda; Favreau, Zachary; Miller, Alison L; Sturza, Julie; Kaciroti, Niko; Lumeng, Julie C

    2018-04-01

    Early child weight gain predicts adolescent and adult obesity, underscoring the need to determine early risk factors affecting weight status and how risk factors might be mitigated. Socioeconomic status, food insecurity, caregiver depressive symptomology, single parenthood, and dysfunctional parenting each have been linked to early childhood weight status. However, the associations between these risk factors and children's weight status may be moderated by caregiver feeding styles (CFS). Examining modifiable factors buffering risk could provide key information to guide early obesity intervention efforts. This analysis used baseline data from the Growing Healthy project that recruited caregivers/child dyads (N = 626) from Michigan Head Start programs. Caregivers were primarily non-Hispanic white (62%) and African American (30%). After using latent class analysis to identify classes of familial psychosocial risk, CFS was tested as a moderator of the association between familial psychosocial risk class and child body mass index (BMI) z-score. Latent class analysis identified three familial psychosocial risk classes: (1) poor, food insecure and depressed families; (2) poor, single parent families; and (3) low risk families. Interactive effects for uninvolved feeding styles and risk group indicated that children in poor, food insecure, and depressed families had higher BMI z-scores compared to children in the low risk group. Authoritative feeding styles in low risk and poor, food insecure, and depressed families showed lower child BMI z-scores relative to poor, single parent families with authoritative feeding styles. Uninvolved feeding styles intensified the risk and an authoritative feeding style muted the risk conferred by living in a poor, food-insecure, and depressed family. Interventions that promote responsive feeding practices could help decrease the associations of familial psychosocial risks with early child weight outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

  14. The CNN Effect: Stretegic Enabler or Operational Risk?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Belknap, Margaret

    2001-01-01

    .... Satellite technology and the proliferation of 2417 news networks have created and increased the so-called 'CNN effect' on strategic level decision-making and how warfighters direct their commands...

  15. Denial of risk: The effects of positive impression management on risk assessments for psychopathic and nonpsychopathic offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillard, Nathan D; Rogers, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessments for offenders often combine past records with current clinical findings from observations, interviews, and test data. Conclusions based on these risk assessments are highly consequential, sometimes resulting in increased criminal sentences or prolonged hospitalization. Therefore, many offenders are motivated to intentionally minimize risk factors and their negative consequences. Positive impression management (PIM) is especially likely to occur in offenders with high psychopathic traits because goal-directed deception is reflected in several of psychopathy's core traits of the disorder, such as manipulativeness, glibness, and superficial charm. However, this connection appears to be based on the conceptual understanding of psychopathy, and has rarely been examined empirically for either frequency of or success at deception. The current study examined the ability of a jail sample to intentionally minimize risk factors and related criminal attributes using a repeated measures, simulation design. In general, offenders were able to effectively use PIM to lower scores on the HCR-20 and the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ), while the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS), as a measure of cognitive styles, was more resistant to such minimization. Psychopathic traits, especially high Factor 1 scores (i.e., affective/interpersonal), were associated with greater PIM. Important differences in the willingness and ability to use deception were found based on the (a) mode of administration (i.e., interview vs. self-report) and (b) level of psychopathy as measured by the Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R). The important implications of this research are discussed for risk assessment procedures regarding likely areas of deception and its detection. The current research also informs the growing literature on the connection between psychopathic traits and deception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Radiobiology in clinical radiation therapy: Long term risks - Carcinogenic, hereditary, and teratogenetic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, David J.

    1997-01-01

    The long-term risks induced by radiation are of much concern to patients and clinicians alike. As an example, perceived radiation risks are frequently cited in a woman's decision to choose a radical mastectomy over lumpectomy + radiation. In consequence, the actual radiation risks are often considerably overstated, or unreasonably downplayed. In this lecture we will discuss just what is known about the long term risks following radiotherapy, both from the human experience and from the laboratory. We will discuss risks both to the patient and to radiotherapy personnel. A good deal is known about the carcinogenic effects of high and low doses of radiation, in large part thanks to the careful study of the survivors of the atomic bombing in Japan, as well as studies of individuals exposed to medical x rays. It is possible to make an estimate, which is probably good to within a factor of, perhaps, three to five, of the cancer risks faced by a patient of a particular age and sex who is going to undergo a particular radiotherapeutic regimen. It is also possible to make an estimate of the risks faced by radiotherapy and nursing staff exposed to low doses. Brachytherapy related risk estimates are likely to be somewhat more uncertain, due to the poorly known sparing effects of the low dose rates used; for the radiotherapy personnel in brachytherapy, because of the doses which can be received, the risks can be quite significant. A recent complication in external-beam radiotherapy is the advent of high-energy linacs, which can produce a significant fast neutron dose which, dose for dose, may be ten to fifty times more carcinogenic than gamma rays. Data relating to the risks of hereditary effects of radiation come almost entirely from laboratory experiments in animals. Studies involving several million mice form the basis of most of our current understanding of hereditary effects. The results of these studies indicate that radiation is a relatively inefficient mutagen. The

  17. Radiobiology in clinical radiation therapy - Part IV: Long term risks - Carcinogenic, hereditary, and teratogenetic effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenner, David J.

    1996-01-01

    The long-term risks induced by radiation are of much concern to patients and clinicians alike. As an example, perceived radiation risks are frequently cited in a woman's decision to choose a radical mastectomy over lumpectomy + radiation. In consequence, the actual radiation risks are often considerably overstated, or unreasonably downplayed. In this lecture we will discuss just what is known about the long term risks following radiotherapy, both from the human experience and from the laboratory. We will discuss risks both to the patient and to radiotherapy personnel. A good deal is known about the carcinogenic effects of high and low doses of radiation, in large part thanks to the careful study of the survivors of the atomic bombing in Japan, as well as studies of individuals exposed to medical x rays. It is possible to make an estimate, which is probably good to within a factor of, perhaps, three to five, of the cancer risks faced by a patient of a particular age and sex who is going to undergo a particular radiotherapeutic regimen. It is also possible to make an estimate of the risks faced by radiotherapy and nursing staff exposed to low doses. Brachytherapy related risk estimates are likely to be somewhat more uncertain, due to the poorly known sparing effects of the low dose rates used; for the radiotherapy personnel in brachytherapy, because of the doses which can be received, the risks can be quite significant. A recent complication in external-beam radiotherapy is the advent of high-energy linacs, which can produce a significant fast neutron dose which, dose for dose, may be ten to fifty times more carcinogenic than gamma rays. Data relating to the risks of hereditary effects of radiation come almost entirely from laboratory experiments in animals. Studies involving several million mice form the basis of most of our current understanding of hereditary effects. The results of these studies indicate that radiation is a relatively inefficient mutagen. The

  18. The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kian Nourozi

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

  19. BYSTANDER EFFECTS GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIAION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    BYSTANDER EFFECTS, GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIATION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURESR. Julian PrestonEnvironmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711, USAThere ...

  20. Effect of Reminder Telephone Calls on Mammography Compliance in High Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Snyder, Carrie

    2006-01-01

    Even though mammography has been proven to be effective in reducing breast cancer mortality this simple screening measure is underutilized by women who are at an inordinately high risk for developing breast cancer...

  1. Effect of Reminder Telephone Calls on Mammography Compliance in High Risk Women

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Synder, Carrie L

    2007-01-01

    Even though mammography has been proven to be effective in reducing breast cancer mortality this simple screening measure is underutilized by women who are at an inordinately high risk for developing breast cancer...

  2. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  3. The effect of flight-related behaviour on the risk of venous thrombosis after air travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreijer, Anja J M; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Doggen, Carine J M; Rosendaal, Frits R

    2009-02-01

    In a case-control study including 11,033 participants (The Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of risk factors for venous thrombosis study) on risk factors of venous thrombosis, we studied the effect of flight-related behaviour on the risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. Patients and control subjects received a questionnaire on risk factors for venous thrombosis, including recent travel history and details of their last flight. From this population, 80 patients and 108 control subjects were selected who had recently (1.1-4.4], particularly in those who were obese (OR 6.1; 95% CI: 0.5-76.2). Anxiety (OR 2.5; 95% CI: 0.9-7.0) and sleeping (OR 1.5; 95% CI: 0.7-3.1) may increase the risk slightly. The risk was not affected by alcohol consumption (OR 1.1; 95% CI: 0.5-2.4). Flying business class may lower the risk (OR 0.7; 95% CI: 0.2-1.8). We did not find a protective effect for several measures currently part of standard advice from airlines and clinicians, i.e. drinking non-alcoholic beverages, exercising or wearing stockings. The effect of behavioural factors during flying on the risk of venous thrombosis after air travel is limited. Current advice on prevention of travel-related thrombosis may have to be reconsidered.

  4. Effective mine risk education in war-zone areas--a shared responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durham, Joanne; Gillieatt, Sue; Sisavath, Bounpheng

    2005-09-01

    The focus of this paper is effective health education and promotion in the field of mine awareness, or what has more recently been re-titled 'mine risk education'. According to the United Nations, mine risk education comprises educational activities that aim to reduce the risk of injury from landmine/unexploded ordnance (UXO) through raising awareness and promoting behavioural change and includes public information dissemination, education and training, and community mine action liaison. Specifically, this paper is an empirical study of mine risk education practices using data collected during the implementation of a mine risk education programme that commenced in Lao PDR in 1996 and is ongoing. In particular, it considers lessons learned from the programme's monitoring and evaluation process. The authors argue that in a country such as Lao PDR, where communities have lived with UXO infestation for over 25 years, more mine risk education is not necessarily needed. This paper concludes that common programmes of mine risk education using top-down educational methods, based on the assumption that ignorance of landmine/UXO risk is the key factor in mine accidents, are inadequate. Evidence from the literature on health promotion and the experience of the programme indicate that there is a need to supplement or replace existing common mine risk education practices with techniques that incorporate an understanding of the economic, social and political circumstances faced by communities at risk.

  5. Effect of smoking on the radon risk in dependence on the time elapsed from exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehm, Radoslav; Holy, Karol; Sedlak, A.

    2013-01-01

    The synergistic effect of cigarette smoking and radon exposure on the lung cancer risk was assessed by using the threshold energy model, which allows the biological effects of radon daughter products on the lung tissue to be analyzed. The shape of the curves describing the relation between the risk and the time after exposure was estimated. The change in the lung function caused by chronic smoking was considered in the calculations. (orig.)

  6. The Effects of Occupational Health and Safety Risk Factors on Job Satisfaction in Hotel Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Gonca Kilic; Murat Selim Selvi

    2009-01-01

    Occupational health and safety risk factors can have direct or indirect effects on levels of organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and the job productivity of workers in service companies as well as other types of industries. In this paper, the effects of physical, biological, chemical and socio-psychological risk factors, related to occupational safety and health, encountered in hotel enterprises on job satisfaction were investigated. Questionnaire survey was conducted as a data colle...

  7. Potential Effect of Opium Consumption on Controlling Diabetes and Some Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Diabetic Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Rahimi, Najmeh; Gozashti, Mohamad Hossain; Najafipour, Hamid; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Marefati, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    Background Due to this belief that opium may have beneficial effects on diabetes or cardiovascular risk factors, the present study aimed to assess the potential and possible effects of opium consumption on diabetes control and some cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic patients. Methods This study enrolled 374 diabetic subjects from diabetes care centers in Kerman, Iran, including opium user group (n = 179) and a non-opium user group (n = 195). The data were collected through a questionnair...

  8. A method for calculating effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, R.M.; England, A.; McEntee, M.F.; Hogg, P.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To propose a method for evaluating the effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography and to present initial data for the UK National Breast Screening Programme. Material and methods: The imaging was undertaken using a Hologic Selenia full field digital mammographic unit. The proposed method utilises an ATOM phantom containing thermoluminescent dosimeters and a perspex-polyethylene breast phantom to measure organ doses during a standard four view screening mammogram. Effective dose was calculated and effective risk was modelled for a range of client ages. The total lifetime effective risk was then calculated for the UK national screening programme. Calculation of effective risk includes the radiation dose to examined and contralateral breasts in addition to other body organs; this is an advantage over the mean glandular dose. Results: The contralateral breast, thyroid, thymus, brain, lung, salivary glands, and bone marrow all receive more than 1 μGy radiation dose during screening mammography. A major difference exists for total effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer between clients with average and high breast cancer risk. Differences are attributed to the commencement age of screening and time interval between screens. Conclusion: This study proposes a method to evaluate effective lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography in order to compare different mammography screening programmes. - Highlights: • We proposed a method for the calculation of radiation-induced cancer from screening mammography. • We measured the radiation absorbed dose of different organs during screening mammography. • There are major differences between mammography screening programme categories with regard to radiation effective risk.

  9. Effect of science communication with the public on inference of risk perception of science and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosugi, Motoko

    2006-01-01

    Our previous study showed a big difference between expert's own risk perception and experts' inference of the public risk perception about technologies. So, this study tried to clarify the effect of the perceived distance in risk perception between the public and experts themselves on forwardness in science communication to the public. The questionnaire survey results reaffirmed that experts were inclined to feel larger difference in risk perception between the public and themselves on the subject of their own specialty than of non-specialty. The result also suggested the tendency that the bigger experts recognized difference in risk perception from the public, the less they actually had experiences of science communication including communication with the public. Moreover, the result showed that experiences of science communication had positive effects on belief of the public's scientific literacy. (author)

  10. Interactive effects of vascular risk burden and advanced age on cerebral blood flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine eBangen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Vascular risk factors and cerebral blood flow (CBF reduction have been linked to increased risk of cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease (AD; however the possible moderating effects of age and vascular risk burden on CBF in late life remain understudied. We examined the relationships among elevated vascular risk burden, age, CBF, and cognition. Seventy-one non-demented older adults completed an arterial spin labeling MR scan, neuropsychological assessment, and medical history interview. Relationships among vascular risk burden, age, and CBF were examined in a priori regions of interest (ROIs previously implicated in aging and AD. Interaction effects indicated that, among older adults with elevated vascular risk burden (i.e., multiple vascular risk factors, advancing age was significantly associated with reduced cortical CBF whereas there was no such relationship for those with low vascular risk burden (i.e., no or one vascular risk factor. This pattern was observed in cortical ROIs including medial temporal (hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus, uncus, inferior parietal (supramarginal gyrus, inferior parietal lobule, angular gyrus, and frontal (anterior cingulate, middle frontal gyrus, medial frontal gyrus cortices. Furthermore, among those with elevated vascular risk, reduced CBF was associated with poorer cognitive performance. Such findings suggest that older adults with elevated vascular risk burden may be particularly vulnerable to cognitive change as a function of CBF reductions. Findings support the use of CBF as a potential biomarker in preclinical AD and suggest that vascular risk burden and regionally-specific CBF changes may contribute to differential age-related cognitive declines.

  11. Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

    2016-09-01

    To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

  12. Air pollution epidemiology. Assessment of health effects and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katsouyanni, K [Athens Univ. (Greece). Dept. of Hygiene and Epidemiology

    1996-12-31

    Air pollution epidemiology is the study of the occurrence and distribution of health outcomes in association with community air pollution exposure. It is therefore specific in the exposure variable. Air pollution health effects became evident during high air pollution episodes which occurred in the first decades of our century. Since then, legal and other control measures have led to lower air pollution levels. However, recent results from several studies indicate that lower levels of air pollution than the previously considered safe have serious adverse health effects. Although, there is increasingly agreement that air pollution, at levels measured today, affects health, there is still a lot to be understood concerning specific causal pollutants, biologic mechanisms involved and sensitive groups of individuals. The extent of potential confounding, time-considerations in air pollution effects, individual variation in air pollution exposure and exposure misclassification are some factors which complicate the study of these issues. (author)

  13. Air pollution epidemiology. Assessment of health effects and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katsouyanni, K. [Athens Univ. (Greece). Dept. of Hygiene and Epidemiology

    1995-12-31

    Air pollution epidemiology is the study of the occurrence and distribution of health outcomes in association with community air pollution exposure. It is therefore specific in the exposure variable. Air pollution health effects became evident during high air pollution episodes which occurred in the first decades of our century. Since then, legal and other control measures have led to lower air pollution levels. However, recent results from several studies indicate that lower levels of air pollution than the previously considered safe have serious adverse health effects. Although, there is increasingly agreement that air pollution, at levels measured today, affects health, there is still a lot to be understood concerning specific causal pollutants, biologic mechanisms involved and sensitive groups of individuals. The extent of potential confounding, time-considerations in air pollution effects, individual variation in air pollution exposure and exposure misclassification are some factors which complicate the study of these issues. (author)

  14. Effects of Disruption Risks on Biorefinery Location Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Bai

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available While ever-growing bio-ethanol production poses considerable challenges to the bioenergy supply chain, the risk of refinery operation disruptions further compromises the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system. This paper applies discrete and continuous reliable facility location models to the design of reliable bio-ethanol supply chains so that the system can hedge against potential operational disruptions. The discrete model is shown to be suitable for obtaining the exact optimality for small or moderate instances, while the continuous model has superior computational tractability for large-scale applications. The impacts of both site-independent and dependent disruptions (i.e., due to flooding are analyzed in empirical case study for the State of Illinois (one of the main biomass supply states in the U.S.. The reliable solution is compared with a deterministic solution under the same setting. It is found that refinery disruptions, especially those site-dependent ones, affect both optimal refinery deployment and the supply chain cost. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show how refinery failure probability and fixed cost (for building biorefineries affect optimal supply chain configuration and the total expected system cost.

  15. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  16. Identification of imprinted genes subject to parent-of-origin specific expression in Arabidopsis thaliana seeds.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mckeown, P.C.; Laouielle-Duprat, S.; Prins, J.C.P.; Wolff, de P.; Schmid, M.W.; Donoghue, M.T.; Fort, A.; Duszynska, D.; Comte, A.; Lao, N.T.; Wennblom, T.J.; Smant, G.; Köhler, C.; Grossniklaus, U.; Spillane, C.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Epigenetic regulation of gene dosage by genomic imprinting of some autosomal genes facilitates normal reproductive development in both mammals and flowering plants. While many imprinted genes have been identified and intensively studied in mammals, smaller numbers have been characterized

  17. GWAS of DNA Methylation Variation Within Imprinting Control Regions Suggests Parent-of-Origin Association

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renteria, M.E.; Coolen, M.W.; Statham, A.L.; Choi, R.S.; Qu, W.; Campbell, M.J.; Smith, S.; Henders, A.K.; Montgomery, G.W.; Clark, S. J.; Martin, N.G.; Medland, S.E.

    2013-01-01

    Imprinting control regions (ICRs) play a fundamental role in establishing and maintaining the non-random monoallelic expression of certain genes, via common regulatory elements such as non-coding RNAs and differentially methylated regions (DMRs) of DNA. We recently surveyed DNA methylation levels

  18. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khakzad, Nima, E-mail: nkhakzad@gmail.com [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Reniers, Genserik [Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), Faculty of Applied Economics, Universiteit Antwerpen, Antwerp (Belgium); Research Group CEDON, Campus Brussels, KULeuven, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network methodology has been developed to estimate the total probability of major accidents in chemical plants. • Total probability of accidents includes the probability of individual accidents and potential domino effects. • The methodology has been extended to calculate on-site and off-site risks. • The results of the risk analysis have been used in a multi-criteria decision analysis technique to risk-based design of chemical plants. - Abstract: Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

  19. Fear and Anger have Opposite Effects on Risk Seeking in the Gain Frame

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianne eHabib

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Emotions strongly influence our decisions, particularly those made under risk. A classic example of the effect of emotion on decision making under risk is the framing effect, which involves predictable shifts in preferences when the same problem is formulated in different ways. According to dual process theories, this bias could stem from an affective heuristic belonging to an intuitive type of reasoning. In this study, we examined whether specific incidental negative emotions (i.e., fear and anger influence framing susceptibility and risk-taking identically. In each trial, participants received an initial amount of money, and pictures of angry or fearful faces were presented to them. Finally, participants chose between a sure option and a gamble option of equally expected value in a gain or loss frame. Risk-taking was modulated by emotional context: fear and anger influenced risk-taking specifically in the gain frame and had opposite effects. Fear increased risk-averse choices, whereas anger decreased risk-averse choices, leading to a suppression of the framing effect. These results confirm that emotions play a key role in framing susceptibility.

  20. Fear and anger have opposite effects on risk seeking in the gain frame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Marianne; Cassotti, Mathieu; Moutier, Sylvain; Houdé, Olivier; Borst, Grégoire

    2015-01-01

    Emotions strongly influence our decisions, particularly those made under risk. A classic example of the effect of emotion on decision making under risk is the "framing effect," which involves predictable shifts in preferences when the same problem is formulated in different ways. According to dual process theories, this bias could stem from an affective heuristic belonging to an intuitive type of reasoning. In this study, we examined whether specific incidental negative emotions (i.e., fear and anger) influence framing susceptibility and risk-taking identically. In each trial, participants received an initial amount of money, and pictures of angry or fearful faces were presented to them. Finally, participants chose between a sure option and a gamble option of equally expected value in a gain or loss frame. Risk-taking was modulated by emotional context: fear and anger influenced risk-taking specifically in the gain frame and had opposite effects. Fear increased risk-averse choices, whereas anger decreased risk-averse choices, leading to a suppression of the framing effect. These results confirm that emotions play a key role in framing susceptibility.

  1. [Particle pollution effects on the risk of cardiovascular diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massamba, V K; Coppieters, Y; Mercier, G; Collart, P; Levêque, A

    2014-02-01

    The effects of air pollution on health are quite well-documented and the influence of particulate pollution on morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction and stroke is increasingly evident. The objective of this literature review is to identify and synthesize articles on the impact of air pollution by PM10 and PM2.5 of myocardial infarction and stroke. A total of 14 studies were reported on the effects of PM10 and five on the effects of PM2.5. Nine out of 14 studies for PM10 and two studies of five for PM2.5 have found a significant association with myocardial infarction and/or stroke. Particle composition according to location, study period and population must be considered in interpreting the results on the health effects of air pollution. The integration of these elements is important for decision making in tune with social and economic conditions specific to each environment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. Facing the Risks of the "Mozart Effect." Grand Masters Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Bennett

    1999-01-01

    Explores the argument introduced by the "Mozart Effect" research: that music's positive influence on spatial-temporal reasoning should be the purpose for music education. Considers the implications by reshaping the National Standards for Music Education to fulfill the spatial-temporal rationale. Suggests how to reconcile musical and…

  3. Cannabis use in children with individualized risk profiles: Predicting the effect of universal prevention intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miovský, Michal; Vonkova, Hana; Čablová, Lenka; Gabrhelík, Roman

    2015-11-01

    To study the effect of a universal prevention intervention targeting cannabis use in individual children with different risk profiles. A school-based randomized controlled prevention trial was conducted over a period of 33 months (n=1874 sixth-graders, baseline mean age 11.82). We used a two-level random intercept logistic model for panel data to predict the probabilities of cannabis use for each child. Specifically, we used eight risk/protective factors to characterize each child and then predicted two probabilities of cannabis use for each child if the child had the intervention or not. Using the two probabilities, we calculated the absolute and relative effect of the intervention for each child. According to the two probabilities, we also divided the sample into a low-risk group (the quarter of the children with the lowest probabilities), a moderate-risk group, and a high-risk group (the quarter of the children with the highest probabilities) and showed the average effect of the intervention on these groups. The differences between the intervention group and the control group were statistically significant in each risk group. The average predicted probabilities of cannabis use for a child from the low-risk group were 4.3% if the child had the intervention and 6.53% if no intervention was provided. The corresponding probabilities for a child from the moderate-risk group were 10.91% and 15.34% and for a child from the high-risk group 25.51% and 32.61%. School grades, thoughts of hurting oneself, and breaking the rules were the three most important factors distinguishing high-risk and low-risk children. We predicted the effect of the intervention on individual children, characterized by their risk/protective factors. The predicted absolute effect and relative effect of any intervention for any selected risk/protective profile of a given child may be utilized in both prevention practice and research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Effect of cell phone distraction on pediatric pedestrian injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinos, Despina; Byington, Katherine W; Schwebel, David C

    2009-02-01

    Early adolescents are using cell phones with increasing frequency. Cell phones are known to distract motor vehicle drivers to the point that their safety is jeopardized, but it is unclear if cell phones might also distract child pedestrians. This study was designed to examine the influence of talking on a cell phone for pediatric pedestrian injury risk. Seventy-seven children aged 10 to 11 years old completed simulated road crossings in an immersive, interactive virtual pedestrian environment. In a within-subjects design, children crossed the virtual street 6 times while undistracted and 6 times while distracted by a cell phone conversation with an unfamiliar research assistant. Participants also completed several other experimental tasks hypothesized to predict the impact of distraction while crossing the street and talking on a cell phone. Children's pedestrian safety was compromised when distracted by a cell phone conversation. While distracted, children were less attentive to traffic; left less safe time between their crossing and the next arriving vehicle; experienced more collisions and close calls with oncoming traffic; and waited longer before beginning to cross the street. Analyses testing experience using a cell phone and experience as a pedestrian yielded few significant results, suggesting that distraction on the cell phone might affect children's pedestrian safety no matter what their experience level. There was some indication that younger children and children who are less attentive and more oppositional may be slightly more susceptible to distraction while talking on the cell phone than older, more attentive, and less oppositional children. Our results suggest that cell phones distract preadolescent children while crossing streets.

  5. The racing-game effect: why do video racing games increase risk-taking inclinations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Morton, Thomas; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Postmes, Tom; Frey, Dieter; Kubitzki, Jörg; Odenwälder, Jörg

    2009-10-01

    The present studies investigated why video racing games increase players' risk-taking inclinations. Four studies reveal that playing video racing games increases risk taking in a subsequent simulated road traffic situation, as well as risk-promoting cognitions and emotions, blood pressure, sensation seeking, and attitudes toward reckless driving. Study 1 ruled out the role of experimental demand in creating such effects. Studies 2 and 3 showed that the effect of playing video racing games on risk taking was partially mediated by changes in self-perceptions as a reckless driver. These effects were evident only when the individual played racing games that reward traffic violations rather than racing games that do not reward traffic violations (Study 3) and when the individual was an active player of such games rather than a passive observer (Study 4). In sum, the results underline the potential negative impact of racing games on traffic safety.

  6. A Study of Program Manager Effectiveness and Risk Taking Propensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-09-01

    Kelly Sherwin, my section leader , has been a great source of leadership and inspiration . Next, I would like to thank Lieutenant Colonel Fred Westfall...managers peiZ.rm ten basic tasks which can be broken into three categories. The categories and tasks are: Interpersonal Roles 1. Figurehead 2. Leader 3...17:59). When-a program manager is successful, he is not necessarily effective (10:10). Luthans studied this phenomenon by examining the managerial

  7. Double jeopardy: interaction effects of marital and poverty status on the risk of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K R; Waitzman, N J

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that marital and poverty status interact in their effects on mortality risks beyond their main effects. This study examines the epidemiological bases for applying an additive rather than a multiplicative specification when testing for interaction between two discrete risk factors. We specifically predict that risks associated with being nonmarried and with being poor interact to produce mortality risks that are greater than each risk acting independently. The analysis is based on men and women who were ages 25-74 during the 1971-1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (NHANES I) and who were traced successfully in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study in 1982-1984. Overall, being both poor and nonmarried places nonelderly (ages 25-64) men, but not women, at risk of mortality greater than that expected from the main effects. This study shows that for all-cause mortality, marital and poverty status interact for men but less so for women; these findings exist when interaction is assessed with either a multiplicative or an additive standard. This difference is most pronounced for poor, widowed men and (to a lesser degree) poor, divorced men. For violent/accidental deaths among men, the interaction effects are large on the basis of an additive model. Weak main and interaction effects were detected for the elderly (age 65+).

  8. National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzadfar Farshad

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, total cholesterol (TC, and high body mass index (BMI on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000 deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000 deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9 and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9 in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran

  9. Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

    2017-01-01

    Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

  10. Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

    2016-01-01

    Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

  11. The Cost-Effectiveness of Antibiotic Prophylaxis for Patients at Risk of Infective Endocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Matthew; Wailoo, Allan; Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2016-11-15

    In March 2008, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended stopping antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) for those at risk of infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing dental procedures in the United Kingdom, citing a lack of evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. We have performed a new economic evaluation of AP on the basis of contemporary estimates of efficacy, adverse events, and resource implications. A decision analytic cost-effectiveness model was used. Health service costs and benefits (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) were estimated. Rates of IE before and after the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance were available to estimate prophylactic efficacy. AP adverse event rates were derived from recent UK data, and resource implications were based on English Hospital Episode Statistics. AP was less costly and more effective than no AP for all patients at risk of IE. The results are sensitive to AP efficacy, but efficacy would have to be substantially lower for AP not to be cost-effective. AP was even more cost-effective in patients at high risk of IE. Only a marginal reduction in annual IE rates (1.44 cases in high-risk and 33 cases in all at-risk patients) would be required for AP to be considered cost-effective at £20 000 ($26 600) per quality-adjusted life-year. Annual cost savings of £5.5 to £8.2 million ($7.3-$10.9 million) and health gains >2600 quality-adjusted life-years could be achieved from reinstating AP in England. AP is cost-effective for preventing IE, particularly in those at high risk. These findings support the cost-effectiveness of guidelines recommending AP use in high-risk individuals. © 2016 The Authors.

  12. Effects of Light Intensity Activity on CVD Risk Factors: A Systematic Review of Intervention Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romeo B. Batacan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of light intensity physical activity (LIPA on cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors remain to be established. This review summarizes the effects of LIPA on CVD risk factors and CVD-related markers in adults. A systematic search of four electronic databases (PubMed, Academic Search Complete, SPORTDiscus, and CINAHL examining LIPA and CVD risk factors (body composition, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, glycosylated hemoglobin, and lipid profile and CVD-related markers (maximal oxygen uptake, heart rate, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 published between 1970 and 2015 was performed on 15 March 2015. A total of 33 intervention studies examining the effect of LIPA on CVD risk factors and markers were included in this review. Results indicated that LIPA did not improve CVD risk factors and CVD-related markers in healthy individuals. LIPA was found to improve systolic and diastolic blood pressure in physically inactive populations with a medical condition. Reviewed studies show little support for the role of LIPA to reduce CVD risk factors. Many of the included studies were of low to fair study quality and used low doses of LIPA. Further studies are needed to establish the value of LIPA in reducing CVD risk.

  13. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The Effect of Managerial Ability on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Yeon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of managerial ability on subsequent stock price crash risk using listed firm data in Korea. Compared to some financially advanced countries, the influence of managers is particularly more powerful in Korea, as ownership and management are not effectively separate in most Korean firms. In addition, we considered the effect of large business groups called Chaebol, which is family-run conglomerates with unique corporate governance system that hugely affect the Korean economy. It is important to recognize determinants of the stock price crash risk which would result in doubt on going concern to enhance the company’s sustainable management. Hence, this study focuses on the managerial ability as one of the main factors of the stock price crash risk. We use the measures of firm-specific stock price crash risk based on Hutton et al. (2009. Managerial ability is estimated through a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA and tobit regressions following Demerjian et al. (2012. From the empirical tests, there is a negative association between managerial ability and stock price crash risk. This suggests that managers with a higher ability release more voluntary disclosure to signal their ability, ultimately lowering the subsequent stock price crash risk. We also find that firms in large business groups, Chaebol, weaken the negative association between managerial ability and subsequent stock price crash risk.

  15. [Radon risk in healthcare facilities: environmental monitoring and effective dose].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammarota, B; Cascone, Maria Teresa; De Paola, L; Schillirò, F; Del Prete, U

    2009-01-01

    Radon, the second cause of lung cancer after smoking (WHO- IARC), is a natural, radioactive gas, which originates from the soil and pollutes indoor air, especially in closed or underground spaces. The purpose of this study was to determine the concentration of radon gas, its effective dose, and the measurement of microclimatic degrees C; U.R. % and air velocity in non-academic intensive care units of public hospitals in the Naples area. The annual average concentrations of radon gas were detected with EIC type ionization electret chambers, type LLT with exposure over four 3-month periods. The concentrations varied for all health facilities between 186 and 1191 Bq/m3. Overall, the effective dose of exposure to radon gas of 3mSv/a recommended by Italian legislation was never exceeded. The concentration of radon gas showed a decreasing trend starting from the areas below ground level to those on higher floors; such concentrations were also influenced by natural and artificial ventilation of the rooms, building materials used for walls, and by the state of maintenance and improvements of the building (insulation of floors and walls). The data obtained confirmed the increased concentration of radionuclides in the yellow tuff of volcanic origin in the Campania Region and the resulting rate of release of radon gas, whereas the reinforced concrete structure (a hospital located on the hillside), which had the lowest values, proved to provide good insulation against penetration and accumulation of radon gas.

  16. Aries: system for health effects assessment in industrial Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabago, I.; Vidania, R. de; Sierra, I.

    1992-01-01

    In this word we present a general description of ARIES*, a tool designed in order to support the assessment of expected heath derived from an accidental release of toxic compounds. ARIES includes two secuential and complementary steps. the first one (a quantitative phase) is being developed, for inhalation exposures, using numerical models, empirical correlations, physiological parameters and toxicological index, to estimate short term consequences over the exposed population. Next it will be published a new report were it will be described with detail the procedure designed for the quantitative published a new report were it will be described with detail the procedure designed for the quantitative assessment of the exposure. the system starts the assessment process with values of external concentrations which are processed, together with different exposure values (existing for humans and scaled up from animals), as inputs for different kinds of models. from these, and other physilogical values ARIES calculates the inhaled equivalent doses and the expected associated effects as a function of the exposure times. Once overcome this first step, ARIES is complemented with an additional system that executes the selection of relevant information from toxicological data bases (qualitative phase). The system works applying a string of filters and searches that displays selected information, giving and additional support to the assessment. Both steps, just refered, are integrated into a logical informatic support. The informatic code is developed in dbase languaje even for the design of the procedure as for the mathematical models linked to the system (extrapolation, dose inhaled models, etc) to execute the numerical analisys of the assessment. The system has been designed in order to include progressively new chemicals and the improvements obtained in the development of mathematical models related with dose-effect relationships. At this moment, is programmed a first

  17. PROACT: Iterative Design of a Patient-Centered Visualization for Effective Prostate Cancer Health Risk Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakone, Anzu; Harrison, Lane; Ottley, Alvitta; Winters, Nathan; Gutheil, Caitlin; Han, Paul K J; Chang, Remco

    2017-01-01

    Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in the US, and yet most cases represent localized cancer for which the optimal treatment is unclear. Accumulating evidence suggests that the available treatment options, including surgery and conservative treatment, result in a similar prognosis for most men with localized prostate cancer. However, approximately 90% of patients choose surgery over conservative treatment, despite the risk of severe side effects like erectile dysfunction and incontinence. Recent medical research suggests that a key reason is the lack of patient-centered tools that can effectively communicate personalized risk information and enable them to make better health decisions. In this paper, we report the iterative design process and results of developing the PROgnosis Assessment for Conservative Treatment (PROACT) tool, a personalized health risk communication tool for localized prostate cancer patients. PROACT utilizes two published clinical prediction models to communicate the patients' personalized risk estimates and compare treatment options. In collaboration with the Maine Medical Center, we conducted two rounds of evaluations with prostate cancer survivors and urologists to identify the design elements and narrative structure that effectively facilitate patient comprehension under emotional distress. Our results indicate that visualization can be an effective means to communicate complex risk information to patients with low numeracy and visual literacy. However, the visualizations need to be carefully chosen to balance readability with ease of comprehension. In addition, due to patients' charged emotional state, an intuitive narrative structure that considers the patients' information need is critical to aid the patients' comprehension of their risk information.

  18. Joint Effects of Physical Activity and BMI on Risk of Hypertension in Women: A Longitudinal Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Jackson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. There is debate as to whether physical activity counteracts the adverse effect of weight on health outcomes. We investigated how physical activity modifies the effect of body mass index (BMI on hypertension risk. Methods. BMI, physical activity, and hypertension were measured at baseline and at three-year interval for 14 years (from 1996 to 2010, in 10,339 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Generalised estimating equation models for binary repeated measures were performed to determine the individual and joint effects of BMI and physical activity on incident hypertension. Results. At baseline (mean age 47.6±1.5 SD, 57% were healthy weight, 28% overweight, and 14% obese. Increasing BMI and decreasing physical activity were associated with increased risk of hypertension. Physical activity attenuated the positive association between weight and risk of hypertension, especially for obese women. Compared to healthy weight high active women, risk of hypertension in obese high active women was 3.4 times greater (OR 3.43, 95% CI 2.68, 4.39 and in obese inactive women 4.9 times greater (OR 4.91, 95% CI 3.92, 6.13. Conclusions. Both physical activity and maintenance of a healthy body weight are associated with lower risk of hypertension. Physical activity reduced but did not remove the effect of obesity on hypertension risk.

  19. The increasing importance of effective risk management in banking: Findings from Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukosavljević Dejan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research presented in this paper is risk management, with a special study of banking sector. Research goals include determining the degree of importance and influence of risk management of internal and external risks to a more favorable environment for business success of banks in strategic terms, in the long run. In this sense, the key results of the empirical research on the territory of Serbia in 2015 on a sample of 34 financial institutions, of which 26 were banks, has been provided . The results were processed by statistical and mathematical methods and confirmed the validity of the defined hypotheses, that the importance of effective risk management in banking is growing, as well as the reporting system. The contribution of this research is in a scientific assessment of the importance of various risks, determination of the dominant theoretical and empirical knowledge supporting wider further research in this area in the banking industry.

  20. Which has more effects on risk perception and judgments, affect or reason?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchida, Shoji; Kinoshita, Tomio; Nakayachi, Kazuya; Tanaka, Yutaka

    2007-01-01

    When managing risks, people are often assumed to behave irrationally and emotionally. On risk researches Slovic (1987, 1999) pointed but the 'emotion heuristics' which stress the emotional process of risk judgments. However, some researchers (e.g. Behavioral Economy: c.f. Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) argues that people's behaviors are basically very rational even though they have some irrational biases. On this research we focused on the judgment processes of risk communication, and examined which would have stronger effects on risk acceptance and trust formation, rational-oriented-communication or emotional-oriented-communication. Total of 506 students at 4 universities (199 males, 265 females, and 42 genders unknown) participated in the experiments. (author)

  1. HEALTH-RISK BEHAVIOUR IN REGARD OF FAMILY STRUCTURE AND ITS EFFECT ON ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovács, Karolina Eszter

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency of health-risk behaviours like smoking, alcohol consumption and substance use is usually higher in adolescence. In addition, its appearance is higher among students coming from non-intact families. These factors also have a strong influence on academic achievement as students from fragile families and students having these health-damaging habits tend to be less effective. According to our results, four different student clusters can be detected regarding health behaviour (traditional risk-takers, hard risk-takers, ambivalent students and risk-avoiders. Ambivalent students reached the best achievement while hard risk-takers showed the poorest efficacy. Finally, students from intact families showed better results compared to their peers from single-parent or patchwork families.

  2. Managing Disease Risks from Trade: Strategic Behavior with Many Choices and Price Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitchumnong, Piyayut; Horan, Richard D

    2018-03-16

    An individual's infectious disease risks, and hence the individual's incentives for risk mitigation, may be influenced by others' risk management choices. If so, then there will be strategic interactions among individuals, whereby each makes his or her own risk management decisions based, at least in part, on the expected decisions of others. Prior work has shown that multiple equilibria could arise in this setting, with one equilibrium being a coordination failure in which individuals make too few investments in protection. However, these results are largely based on simplified models involving a single management choice and fixed prices that may influence risk management incentives. Relaxing these assumptions, we find strategic interactions influence, and are influenced by, choices involving multiple management options and market price effects. In particular, we find these features can reduce or eliminate concerns about multiple equilibria and coordination failure. This has important policy implications relative to simpler models.

  3. Religiousness and Rape Myth Acceptance: Risk and Protective Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensz, Samantha; Jankowski, Peter J

    2017-03-01

    This study addressed the lack of research simultaneously examining multiple dimensions of religiousness when predicting rape myth acceptance, and extended prior findings of a mediating role for right-wing authoritarianism (i.e., uncritical submission to authority and aggressive attitude toward those who do not conform to social norms) in the association between religiousness and prejudice. The sample consisted of 99 undergraduate and graduate students ( M age = 31.87 years, 66.7% female, 80.82% White, and 93% Christian affiliated) from a religiously affiliated university in the Midwest United States. As hypothesized, dimensions of religiousness exhibited differential associations with rape myth acceptance. Religious motivation characterized by openness and exploration (i.e., quest religiousness) was a significant negative predictor of rape myth acceptance, directly, and indirectly through right-wing authoritarianism. In contrast, rigid adherence to religious beliefs, assumed to be "right" and absolutely true (i.e., religious fundamentalism), and extrinsically motivated religiousness each exhibited a positive association with rape myth acceptance through right-wing authoritarianism. In addition, internally motivated religiousness and religious fundamentalism each moderated the nonlinear effect for quest predicting rape myth acceptance. Findings suggest that uncritical religious and secular submission to external authorities or uncommitted and nonexploring religiousness may have increased the extent to which persons adhered to rape myths, whereas religious exploration was protective. Practical implications center on the need for socioculturally relevant prevention and intervention efforts with religious identifying college students.

  4. Multiplicative Effects of Social and Psychological Risk Factors on College Students’ Suicidal Behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shervin Assari

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Less is known about the multiplicative effects of social and psychological risk and protective factors of suicidality on college campuses. The current study aimed to investigate the multiplicative effects of social (identifying oneself as gay/lesbian, financial difficulty, violence victimization, and religiosity and psychological (anxiety, depression, problem alcohol use, drug use and risk/protective factors on suicidal behaviors among college students in the United States. Using a cross-sectional design, the Healthy Mind Study (HMS; 2016–2017, is a national online survey of college students in the United States. Social (identifying oneself as gay/lesbian, violence victimization, financial difficulty, and religiosity and psychological (anxiety, depression, problem alcohol use, and drug use risk/protective factors were assessed among 27,961 individuals. Three aspects of suicidality, including ideation, plan, and attempt, were also assessed. Logistic regression models were used for data analysis. Financial difficulty, violence victimization, identifying oneself as gay/lesbian, anxiety, depression, and drug use increased, while religiosity reduced the odds of suicidal behaviors. Multiplicative effects were found between the following social and psychological risk factors: (1 financial difficulty and anxiety; (2 financial difficulty and depression; (3 depression and drug use; (4 problem alcohol use and drug use; and (5 depression and problem alcohol use. There is a considerable overlap in the social and psychological processes, such as financial stress, mood disorders, and substance use problems, on risk of suicide in college students. As social and psychological risk factors do not operate independently, comprehensive suicidal risk evaluations that simultaneously address multiple social and psychological risk factors may be superior to programs that only address a single risk factor.

  5. Side effects and risks of radioiodine treatment of benign thyroid diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, W.; Hohenberger, W.; Wolf, F.; Erlangen-Nuernberg Univ., Erlangen

    1990-01-01

    Radioiodine treatment is considered to be the treatment of choice in benign thyroid diseases because of its very low side effects. Real and hypothetic risks and side effects have to be differentiated. Both may occur early and late after the treatment. Radioiodinethyroiditis in small volumes at high doses is very rare. Exacerbation of a thyroid storm (0.34%) as well as local compressions accompanied with reactive edema of the thyroid are early real side effects of radioiodine treatment. Late real side effects are failure of treatment (7-30% of thyrotoxicosis) and induction of hypothyroidism (4-20% of functional autonomy and increasing frequency in Graves' diseases with time). Late hypothetic risks are somatic (1-9/10000 bis 1-9/100000) or genetic (1-9/100000). An early risk might be the misdiagnosis of an additional thyroid carcinoma. (orig.) [de

  6. Which Risks Get Managed? Addressing Climate Effects in the Context of Evolving Water-Governance Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Conca

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Warnings about climate change invariably stress water-related effects. Such effects are typically framed as both unpredictable and disruptive, and are thus said to create large new risks to the water sector demanding adaptive responses. This article examines how such responses are mediated by, and also compromised by, two dominant trends in the evolution of water governance institutions: (1 the rise of an “integrated” paradigm of water resources management, which has encouraged the development of more complex and interconnected water institutions, and (2 the rapidly changing political economy of water financing and investment. Each of these trends carries its own strong presumptions about what constitutes water-related risk and how such risk is properly managed. The article uses the specific example of large dam projects to illustrate how these ongoing trends in water governance shape and complicate the prospect of managing climate-water risks.

  7. The effect of sildenafil citrate (Viagra) on cerebral blood flow in patients with cerebrovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorberboym, M; Mena, I; Wainstein, J; Boaz, M; Lampl, Y

    2010-06-01

    Sildenafil citrate is widely used for erectile dysfunction. The present study examined the short-term effects of sildenafil administration in individuals with cerebrovascular risk factors, including patients with a history of stroke. Twenty-five consecutive male patients with erectile dysfunction and vascular risk factors were included in the study. A perfusion brain SPECT study was performed at baseline and 1 h after the oral administration of sildenafil. Associations between any of the risk factors and the perfusion scores were not detected, with the exception of stroke. Stroke patients showed significantly more areas with diminished perfusion after sildenafil administration compared to baseline. In patients with diabetes or hypertension, a dose of 50 mg sildenafil does not appear to produce detrimental effects on cerebral blood flow. However, patients with a history of stroke may be at increased risk of hemodynamic impairment after the use of sildenafil.

  8. The effect of emotions on risk perception: Experimental evaluation of the affective tendencies framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drače Saša

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the role of specific emotions on risk perception providing a more stringent experimental test of the Appraisal Tendencies Framework (ATF. Consistent with expectations, angry and happy participants made more optimistic risk estimates than participants who were made sad. As hypothesized by ATF, happiness and anger also led people to somewhat higher certainty appraisals than sadness. However, this change in perception did not mediate the impact of emotions on risk estimates. Taken together, our results provide the evidence for causal role of specific emotions in risk perception and contribute to literature showing that the effects of emotion on judgment are not solely due to the valence of the experienced emotion. However, they also suggest that the processes underlying emotion effects remain in need for further specifications.

  9. An experimental interactive risk communication on the effect of radioactive substance on health through food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niiyama, Yoko; Kito, Yayoi; Kudo, Haruyo

    2011-01-01

    Risk communication, an interactive process of exchange of information and opinion on risk among stakeholders is the important element in Risk Analysis. However, we haven't effective model yet. We have tried experimental Interactive risk communication on the effect of radioactive substance on health through food related the accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The model is consist of some process for making scientific information and discussion among consumer groups on the information; making and providing first step scientific information by scientists and communicator for consumers, first step group discussions on the information by consumers, making second step scientific information based critical questions in the first step group discussions, and second step group discussions on the second step information by consumers. We had organized 8 discussion groups, 50 subjects in Tokyo and Kyoto. (author)

  10. The effects of parenting interventions for at-risk parents with infants:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rayce, Signe Lynne Boe; Rasmussen, Ida Scheel; Klest, Sihu

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Infancy is a critical stage of life, and a secure relationship with caring and responsive caregivers is crucial for healthy infant development. Early parenting interventions aim to support families in which infants are at risk of developmental harm. Our objective is to systematically...... review the effects of parenting interventions on child development and on parent–child relationship for at-risk families with infants aged 0–12 months. Design This is a systematic review and meta-analyses. We extracted publications from 10 databases in June 2013, January 2015 and June 2016......, and supplemented with grey literature and hand search. We assessed risk of bias, calculated effect sizes and conducted meta-analyses. Inclusion criteria (1) Randomised controlled trials of structured psychosocial interventions offered to at-risk families with infants aged 0–12 months in Western Organisation...

  11. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-09-01

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Sleep Quality and Alcohol Risk in College Students: Examining the Moderating Effects of Drinking Motives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Shannon R.; Paves, Andrew P.; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Sleep problems and alcohol misuse are common issues experienced by college students that can have detrimental effects on overall health. Previous work indicates a strong relationship between poor sleep quality and alcohol risk in this population. This study explored the moderating effect of drinking motives in the relationship between…

  13. The effects of statistical information on risk and ambiguity attitudes, and on rational insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter); D.R.M. Timmermans (Danielle); I. Machielse (Irma)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents a field study into the effects of statistical information concerning risks on willingness to take insurance, with special attention being paid to the usefulness of these effects for the clients (the insured). Unlike many academic studies, we were able to use in-depth

  14. Cost effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs in geriatric outpatients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, Nathalie; Meerding, Willen Jan; Looman, Caspar W.; Pols, Huibert A. P.; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs has been proven to be effective in older persons. However, given the enormous rise in healthcare costs in recent decades, the effect of such withdrawals on healthcare costs also needs to be considered. METHOD: Within a common geriatric outpatient

  15. 77 FR 39387 - Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management; Effective Date

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-03

    ... FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 614 RIN 3052-AC60 Loan Policies and Operations; Lending and Leasing Limits and Risk Management; Effective Date AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION: Notice of effective date. SUMMARY: The Farm Credit Administration (FCA or Agency), through the FCA Board (Board...

  16. The Age-Specific Quantitative Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Gitanjali M; Danaei, Goodarz; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2013-01-01

    The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex...

  17. Cost-effectiveness and radiological risk associated with mass chest screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stieve, F.E.

    1987-01-01

    This report presents in summary the cost effectiveness and radiological risks associated with mass chest tuberculosis screening in major European countries. The state of tuberculosis in west Europe, the cost effectiveness of mass screening, international standards regarding radiation doses as well as the need for quality control are addressed

  18. Effect modification by population dietary folate on the association between MTHFR genotype, homocysteine, and stroke risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmes, Michael V; Newcombe, Paul; Hubacek, Jaroslav A

    2011-01-01

    The MTHFR 677C→T polymorphism has been associated with raised homocysteine concentration and increased risk of stroke. A previous overview showed that the effects were greatest in regions with low dietary folate consumption, but differentiation between the effect of folate and small-study bias wa...

  19. Effects of smoking and antioxidant micronutrients on risk of colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Rikke Dalgaard; Albieri, Vanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2013-04-01

    Antioxidant intake has been reported to increase the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for smokers, yet reduce the risk for nonsmokers. We investigated the association between tobacco smoking and risk of colon or rectal cancer, and whether dietary and supplemental intake of the antioxidant vitamins A, C, E, β-carotene, selenium, zinc, and manganese affects the risk of CRC among smokers. Data on smoking habits and antioxidant intake were analyzed for 54,208 participants in the Danish Prospective Diet, Cancer and Health Study. Of these participants, 642 were diagnosed with colon cancer and 348 were diagnosed with rectal cancer. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Principal components were used to analyze intake of combinations of antioxidants. Ever smoking increased the risk for CRC (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.37), especially for rectal cancer. Smoking for at least 20 years was associated with a 26% increase in risk of CRC, compared with never smokers, and smoking 20 g tobacco or more each day was associated with a 30% increase in risk. Smoking for more than 30 years, or more than 20 g tobacco each day, was associated with a 48% increase in risk of rectal cancer. We did not observe an interaction between smoking and antioxidant consumption on risk of CRC. Tobacco smoking increases the risk for CRC. We did not observe that consumption of antioxidant micronutrients modulates the effects of smoking on CRC risk. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  1. Effect of systematic ergonomic hazard identification and control implementation on musculoskeletal disorder and injury risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantley, Linda F; Taiwo, Oyebode A; Galusha, Deron; Barbour, Russell; Slade, Martin D; Tessier-Sherman, Baylah; Cullen, Mark R

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to examine the effect of an ergonomic hazard control (HC) initiative, undertaken as part of a company ergonomics standard, on worker injury risk. Using the company's ergonomic hazards database to identify jobs with and without ergonomic HC implementation and linking to individual job and injury histories, injury risk among person-jobs with HC implementation (the HC group) was compared to those without HC (NoHC group) using random coefficient models. Further analysis of the HC group was conducted to determine the effect of additional ergonomic hazards controlled on injury risk. Among 123 jobs at 17 plant locations, 347 ergonomic hazards were quantitatively identified during the study period. HC were implemented for 204 quantified ergonomic hazards in 84 jobs, impacting 10 385 persons (12 967 person-jobs). No HC were implemented for quantified ergonomic hazards in the remaining 39 jobs affecting 4155 persons (5046 person-jobs). Adjusting for age, sex, plant origin, and year to control for any temporal trend in injury risk, the relative risk (RR) for musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) was 0.85 and the RR for any injury or MSD was 0.92 in the HC compared to NoHC group. Among the HC group, each ergonomic hazard controlled was associated with risk reduction for MSD and acute injury outcomes (RR 0.93). Systematic ergonomic HC through participatory ergonomics, as part of a mandatory company ergonomics standard, is associated with MSD and injury risk reduction among workers in jobs with HC implemented.

  2. Analysis of the effectiveness of the variance and Downside Risk measures for formation of investment portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariúcha Nóbrega Bezerra

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the efficacy of variance and measures of downside risk for of formation of investment portfolios in the Brazilian stock market. Using the methodologies of Ang (1975, Markowitz et al. (1993, Ballestero (2005, Estrada (2008 and Cumova and Nawrocki (2011, sought to find what the best method to solve the problem of asymmetric and endogenous matrix and, inspired by the work of Markowitz (1952 and Lohre, Neumann and Winterfeldt (2010, intended to be seen which risk metric is most suitable for the realization of more efficient allocation of resources in the stock market in Brazil. The sample was composed of stocks of IBrX 50, from 2000 to 2013. The results indicated that when the semivariance was used as a measure of asymmetric risk, if the investor can use more refined models for solving the problem of asymmetric semivariance-cosemivariance matrix, the model of Cumova and Nawrocki (2011 will be more effective. Furthermore, from the Brazilian data, VaR had become more effective than variance and other measures of downside risk with respect to minimizing the risk of loss. Thus, taken the assumption that the investor has asymmetric preferences regarding risk, forming portfolios of stocks in the Brazilian market is more efficient when using criteria of minimizing downside risk than the traditional mean-variance approach.

  3. Effects of extended-release niacin with laropiprant in high-risk patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landray, Martin J; Haynes, Richard; Hopewell, Jemma C

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patients with evidence of vascular disease are at increased risk for subsequent vascular events despite effective use of statins to lower the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level. Niacin lowers the LDL cholesterol level and raises the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) choleste......-release niacin-laropiprant to statin-based LDL cholesterol-lowering therapy did not significantly reduce the risk of major vascular events but did increase the risk of serious adverse events. (Funded by Merck and others; HPS2-THRIVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00461630.)....

  4. Effect of the number of cigarettes smoked and of radon exposure on the lung cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehm, R.; Holy, K.; Sedlak, A.

    2012-01-01

    The relation between the extent of cigarette smoking and the lung cancer risk in people exposed to radon was examined. The changes in the airway geometry due to an increased production of mucus caused by smoking were taken into account. The mucous layer protects the target cells from the effects of ionizing radiation. The radiation risk per unit exposure decreases with the number of cigarettes smoked, in contrast to the total risk, which increases to stagnate in the range of extensive daily cigarette smoking. Lung damage in chronic smokers should be taken into account, though. (orig.)

  5. Testing the effect of risk on intertemporal choice in the Chinese cultural context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yan; Li, Shu

    2011-01-01

    Previous studies using Western samples have found that introducing uncertainty to an intertemporal choice decreases the degree of discounting future rewards. The authors of this article examined the effect of risk on intertemporal choice using Chinese participants and found that respondents preferred the smaller but sooner (SS) outcome to the larger but later (LL) one in the presence of risk, which indicates that risk increases rather than decreases the degree of discounting future rewards. Thus, variations in response patterns between different cultural groups suggest that culture may play an important role in intertemporal choice and researchers should delve into this topic from an emic rather than an etic perspective.

  6. AFFECT AND THE FRAMING EFFECT WITHIN INDIVIDUALS OVER TIME: RISK TAKING IN A DYNAMIC INVESTMENT SIMULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Myeong-Gu; Goldfarb, Brent; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

    2010-04-01

    We examined the role of affect (pleasant or unpleasant feelings) and decision frames (gains or losses) in risk taking in a 20-day stock investment simulation in which 101 participants rated their current feelings while making investment decisions. As predicted, affect attenuated the relationships between decision frames and risk taking. After experiencing losses, individuals made more risky choices, in keeping with the framing effect. However, this tendency decreased and/or disappeared when loss was simultaneously experienced with either pleasant or unpleasant feelings. Similarly, individuals' tendency to avoid risk after experiencing gains disappeared or even reversed when they simultaneously experienced pleasant feelings.

  7. Effectiveness of a national cardiovascular disease risk assessment program (NHS Health Check): results after one year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher

    2013-08-01

    We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. The effect of non-financial risk information on the evaluation of implied cost of capitals

    OpenAIRE

    Norio Kitagawa; Hyonok Kim; Masatoshi Goto

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of voluntary disclosure of `business risk' information (hereafter referred to as `risk information' ), which is a significant determinant of the information environment, on estimating the cost of capital. Recently, some studies indicate that the reliability of the cost of capital estimation differs according to the accounting standards and the information environment of the firm (e.g. Chen et al., 2004; Easton and Monahan, 2005). On the basis...

  9. Estimation of the risks of stochastic effects attributable to the radiological conditions in Tbilisi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vepkhvadze, N.R.; Gelashvili, K.D.; Kiladze, N.A.

    1997-01-01

    Radiation background in Tbilisi City has been studied; collective and annual average statistic dozes have been ascertained, parameters of stochastic effects' (cancerogenic, genetic) risks caused by low dozes of ionizing radiation have been calculated. From 21 cases of total risk 7 are stipulated by genetic defects, 14 - by lethal malignant tumor. The conclusion is that we should not expect important changes in health condition of population caused by existing in Tbilisi City radiation background. (author)

  10. Comparative Effectiveness of Personalized Lifestyle Management Strategies for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Paula; Pandya, Ankur; Salomon, Joshua A; Goldie, Sue J; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2016-03-29

    Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. We computed risks using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations for a variety of individual profiles. Using published literature on risk factor reductions through diverse lifestyle interventions-group therapy for stopping smoking, Mediterranean diet, aerobic exercise (walking), and yoga-we calculated the risk reduction through each of these interventions to determine the strategy associated with the maximum benefit for each profile. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. In the base-case analysis, yoga was associated with the largest 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reductions (maximum absolute reduction 16.7% for the highest-risk individuals). Walking generally ranked second (max 11.4%), followed by Mediterranean diet (max 9.2%), and group therapy for smoking (max 1.6%). If the individual was a current smoker and successfully quit smoking (ie, achieved complete smoking cessation), then stopping smoking yielded the largest reduction. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analysis confirmed the demonstrated trend. This study reports the comparative effectiveness of several forms of lifestyle modifications and found smoking cessation and yoga to be the most effective forms of cardiovascular disease prevention. Future research should focus on patient adherence to personalized therapies, cost-effectiveness of these strategies, and the potential for enhanced benefit when interventions are performed simultaneously rather than as single measures. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  11. Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-25

    Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) JUN 2016 – MAY 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Averse to Initiative: Risk Management’s Effect on Mission...decision weights and potential implications of educating leaders with Prospect Theory . Prospect Theory sheds light on how to look at loss and opportunity...the gain–causing risk aversion. Leaders educated in how to analyze a problem using Prospect Theory can rationally approach gains and losses. For the

  12. The effect of hypo-allergenic formulas in infants at risk of allergic disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halken, S; Jacobsen, H P; Høst, A

    1995-01-01

    to tobacco smoke is found to be associated with an increased risk of recurrent wheezing/asthma and inhalant allergy. In infants with atopic predisposition (first-degree relatives), exclusively breastfeeding > or = four months is found associated with a significant reduction of the cumulative prevalence...... of cow's milk. Some high risk infants may benefit from maternal diet during lactation, but there is no documented beneficial effect of maternal diet during pregnancy....

  13. Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

    OpenAIRE

    Akwaa-Sekyi, Ellis Kofi; Moreno Gené, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used...

  14. Auditors’ Perceptions of Reasonable Assurance the Effectiveness of the Audit Risk Model. Case from Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Hashem Valipour; Javad Moradi; Hajar Moazaminezhad

    2012-01-01

    Despite the definition of the concept of logical confidence in auditing standards, the results from some studies conducted indicate a meaningful difference between perceptions this basic concept, by different auditors (Law, 2008, 180). The results from some researches also indicate that auditors’ perceptions about the effectiveness of the audit risk model vary (which is based on auditing general principles on the basis of risk) (Arense, 2006, 148). In so doing, aiming at studying the proof fo...

  15. THE EFFECT OF FUNDING AND RISK ON FINANCING DECISION Empirical Study of Islamic Banks in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutrisno Sutrisno

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of funding decisions and risk to financing decisions on Islamic banking in Indonesia. Funding decisions consists of variable wadia demand deposits (GWD, mudaraba saving deposit (TAB, and mudaraba time deposits (DEP. Risk is proxied by capital risk (CAR, liquidity risk (RR and FDR, and financing risk (NPF. While the financing decisions consists of murabaha financing, mudaraba financing, and Musharaka financing. Samples were taken from all Islamic banks operating in Indonesia by 11 Islamic banks, and quarterly data using multiple regression analysis. The results showed that DEP and TAB significant and positive impact on all of financing, while GWD significant and positive impact on murabahafinancing is however negatively affect to mudaraba and musharaka financing. CAR and RR a significant and negative effect on all of financing. NPF non significant effect on all financing decisions, while FDR significant and negative effect on mudaraba and musharaka financing, but no significant effect on murabaha financing

  16. Randomized Controlled Trial of an Educational Intervention Using an Online Risk Calculator for Knee Osteoarthritis: Effect on Risk Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losina, Elena; Michl, Griffin L; Smith, Karen C; Katz, Jeffrey N

    2017-08-01

    Young adults, in general, are not aware of their risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Understanding risk and risk factors is critical to knee OA prevention. We tested the efficacy of a personalized risk calculator on accuracy of knee OA risk perception and willingness to change behaviors associated with knee OA risk factors. We conducted a randomized controlled trial of 375 subjects recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk. Subjects were randomized to either use a personalized risk calculator based on demographic and risk-factor information (intervention), or to view general OA risk information (control). At baseline and after the intervention, subjects estimated their 10-year and lifetime risk of knee OA and responded to contemplation ladders measuring willingness to change diet, exercise, or weight-control behaviors. Subjects in both arms had an estimated 3.6% 10-year and 25.3% lifetime chance of developing symptomatic knee OA. Both arms greatly overestimated knee OA risk at baseline, estimating a 10-year risk of 26.1% and a lifetime risk of 47.8%. After the intervention, risk calculator subjects' perceived 10-year risk decreased by 12.9 percentage points to 12.5% and perceived lifetime risk decreased by 19.5 percentage points to 28.1%. Control subjects' perceived risks remained unchanged. Risk calculator subjects were more likely to move to an action stage on the exercise contemplation ladder (relative risk 2.1). There was no difference between the groups for diet or weight-control ladders. The risk calculator is a useful intervention for knee OA education and may motivate some exercise-related behavioral change. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  17. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  18. Long-term effects of ovulation-stimulating drugs on cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinton, Louise

    2007-07-01

    Although nulliparity has been extensively related to the risk of ovarian, breast and endometrial cancers, with many studies showing the relationship largely attributable to infertility, treatment effects on cancer risk are poorly understood. Two early studies raised substantial concern when ovulation-stimulating drugs were linked with large increases in ovarian cancer, supporting the notion of an important aetiological role of incessant ovulation. Subsequent studies have been mainly reassuring, although some have suggested possible risk increases among nulligravid women, those with extensive follow-up, and those developing borderline tumours. Results regarding effects of fertility drugs on breast cancer risk are conflicting, with some showing no associations and others demonstrating possible risk increases, although for varying subgroups. In contrast, endometrial cancer results are more consistent, with two recent studies showing increased risks related to clomiphene usage. This is of interest given that clomiphene is structurally similar to tamoxifen, a drug extensively linked with this cancer. Given the recent marketing of fertility drugs and the fact that exposed women are only beginning to reach the cancer age range, further follow-up is necessary. This will also be important to fully resolve effects of exposures such as gonadotrophins, used more recently in conjunction with IVF.

  19. Biological effects of radiation and estimation of risk to radiation workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, M.S.S.

    1987-01-01

    The biological effects of radiation have three stages: physical, chemical and biological. A precise mathematical description of biological effects and of one-to-one correspondence between the initial energy absorption and final effect has not been possible, because several factors are involved in biological effects and their manifestation period varies from less than one second to several years. The mechanism of biological radiation effects is outlined. The two groups of these effects are (1) immediate and (2) delayed. The main aim of radiation protection programme is to eliminate the risk of non-stochastic effects to an acceptable level. The mean annual dose for 30,000 radiation workers in India is 2.7 m Sv. Estimated risk of fatal cancer from this dose is about 50 cases of cancer per year per million workers which is well below the ICRP standard for safe occupation stipulated at fatality rate less than or equal to 100 per year per milion workers. When compared with risk in other occupations, the risk to radiation workers is much less. (M.G.B.)

  20. I'm feeling lucky: the relationship between affect and risk-seeking in the framing effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Elaine; Mikels, Joseph A

    2011-08-01

    Engagement in risky behavior has traditionally been attributed to an underestimation of the associated risks, but recent perspectives suggest that affective reactions toward a risky option may better explain risk-seeking than risk perception. However, the precise relationship between emotion and risk-seeking remains unclear. The current set of studies elucidates the relationship between emotion and risk-seeking in risky choice framing, using a gambling task. In Study 1, reliance on emotion was related to risk-seeking, but goals to regulate emotion mitigated these effects. In Study 2, positive affect was associated with risk-seeking in loss frames, but unrelated to risk aversion in gain frames. Collectively, these findings indicate a general role for emotion reliance on risk-seeking and a specific role of positive affect on risk-seeking in the loss trials of the framing effect. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

  1. Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used. Generalized Least Squares (random effect econometric estimation technique was used for the model. Findings: We find that internal control systems are in place but their effectiveness cannot be guaranteed. This exposes Spanish listed banks to serious default situations. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk especially the control environment, risk management, control activities and monitoring. The non-disclosure of material internal control weakness is a contributory factor to the ineffective internal control systems. There is however a perceived board ineffectiveness which does not augur well for effective internal control systems. Board characteristics for Spanish banks confirm the agency theory. Research Limitations and Implications: Data unavailability for certain years, variables and many inactive banks did not permit a larger sample size than expected. The use of quantitative variables lacks flexibility. Practical Implications: Bank management will find the work useful to ensure strict enforcement of internal control mechanisms and see it as both credit risk and operational risk issues. Central bank should hurry to compel banks to disclose material internal control weakness as provided in the reviewed COSO framework. Social Implications: Ineffective internal controls lead to credit risks, bank closure and loss of investments. Society suffers a lot from such losses and contagion. Disclosure of material internal control

  2. A systematic review of the effect of yogurt consumption on chronic diseases risk markers in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, Audrée-Anne; Lapointe, Annie; Dugrenier, Marilyn; Provencher, Véronique; Lamarche, Benoît; Desroches, Sophie

    2017-06-01

    We reviewed randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that have assessed the effects of yogurt containing Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermophilus (LBST) on metabolic risk markers of chronic diseases in adults. We performed a systematic search in July 2016 in the scientific databases PubMed, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library. Included studies were RCTs that assessed the impact of consuming yogurt containing LBST as a treatment, and that evaluated at least one metabolic risk marker for chronic diseases compared with a control diet or a diet supplemented in another food/ingredient in healthy or chronically ill adults. Seven RCTs involving 278 participants were included in the review. Studies were conducted in the USA, France, Spain, Iran and Canada. Five studies were undertaken in healthy adults, and two were conducted among lactose malabsorbers. All studies investigated changes in blood lipids and glucose homoeostasis, with different doses of yogurt, durations of the supplementation and risks markers assessed. Consumption of LBST yogurt significantly reduced total cholesterol concentrations, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL-C and plasma glucose compared to a control yogurt-free diet or diet supplemented in another food/ingredient in two out of the seven studies. The majority of included RCTs presented high to unclear methodological risks of bias, which raises questions about the validity of their findings. Data from this systematic review indicate that the consumption of LBST yogurt shows either favourable or neutral effects on metabolic risk markers when compared with a control treatment in controlled research settings. RCTs investigating the effect of LBST yogurt consumption on metabolic risk markers of chronic diseases are scarce and presented considerable variation in methodologies making comparison between studies difficult. Further large-scale, well-designed studies assessing the impact of LBST yogurt, in particular in comparison with a control yogurt

  3. The effect of pre-travel advice on sexual risk behavior abroad: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croughs, Mieke; Remmen, Roy; Van den Ende, Jef

    2014-01-01

    Travelers often have casual sex abroad and the risk of acquiring a sexually transmitted infection (STI) associated with casual travel sex is considered to be threefold higher compared to the risk of casual sex in the home country. Consequently, international guidelines recommend including STI advice in the pre-travel consultation. We performed a systematic review on the effect of a pre-travel STI intervention on sexual risk behavior abroad. In September 2012, a systematic analysis and meta-analysis of peer reviewed literature were performed on the relation between pre-travel STI advice for travelers and sexual risk behavior abroad. Primary outcome measure consisted of the number of travelers with a new sexual partner abroad; secondary outcome measure entailed the proportion of consistent condom use. Six studies were identified for inclusion in the review, of which three clinical trials on the effect of a motivational intervention compared to standard pre-travel STI advice qualified for the meta-analysis. Two of these trials were performed in US marines deployed abroad and one in visitors of a travel clinic. The extensive motivational training program of the marines led to a reduction in sexual risk behavior, while the brief motivational intervention in the travel clinic was not superior to standard advice. The meta-analysis established no overall effect on risk behavior abroad. No clinical trials on the effect of a standard pre-travel STI discussion were found, but a cohort study reported that no relation was found between the recall of a nonstructured pre-travel STI discussion and sexual risk behavior, while the recall of reading the STI information appeared to be related to more consistent condom use. Motivational pre-travel STI intervention was not found to be superior to standard STI advice, while no clinical trials on the effect of standard pre-travel STI advice were found. © 2013 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  4. Interactive effects of obesity and physical fitness on risk of ischemic heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, C; Sundquist, J; Winkleby, M A; Sundquist, K

    2017-02-01

    Obesity and low physical fitness are known risk factors for ischemic heart disease (IHD), but their interactive effects are unclear. Elucidation of interactions between these common, modifiable risk factors may help inform more effective preventive strategies. We examined interactive effects of obesity, aerobic fitness and muscular strength in late adolescence on risk of IHD in adulthood in a large national cohort. We conducted a national cohort study of all 1 547 407 military conscripts in Sweden during 1969-1997 (97-98% of all 18-year-old males each year). Aerobic fitness, muscular strength and body mass index (BMI) measurements were examined in relation to IHD identified from outpatient and inpatient diagnoses through 2012 (maximum age 62 years). There were 38 142 men diagnosed with IHD in 39.7 million person years of follow-up. High BMI or low aerobic fitness (but not muscular strength) was associated with higher risk of IHD, adjusting for family history and socioeconomic factors. The combination of high BMI (overweight/obese vs normal) and low aerobic fitness (lowest vs highest tertile) was associated with highest IHD risk (incidence rate ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.91-3.31; P<0.001). These exposures had no additive and a negative multiplicative interaction (that is, their combined effect was less than the product of their separate effects). Low aerobic fitness was a strong risk factor even among those with normal BMI. In this large cohort study, low aerobic fitness or high BMI at age 18 was associated with higher risk of IHD in adulthood, with a negative multiplicative interaction. Low aerobic fitness appeared to account for a similar number of IHD cases among those with normal vs high BMI (that is, no additive interaction). These findings suggest that interventions to prevent IHD should begin early in life and include not only weight control but aerobic fitness, even among persons of normal weight.

  5. Effects of Tea and Coffee Consumption on Cardiovascular Diseases and Relative Risk Factors: An Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Arianna; Curti, Valeria; Tenore, Gian C; Nabavi, Seyed M; Daglia, Maria

    2017-01-01

    Tea and coffee are the second and third most consumed beverages after water, respectively. The high consumption of these beverages is due to the sensorial properties and effects on psychological and physiological functions, induced by caffeine and many other bioactive components responsible for the protective effects on human health generally ascribed to these beverages. The goal of this review article is to collect the scientific data obtained from clinical trials published in the last five years on the role of tea and coffee consumption against cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CVD risk factors such as hypertension, hyperglicemia, and hyperlipidaemia. In normal weight subjects, clinical trials showed that the consumption of tea is inversely associated to CVD risk factors or no association was found. Differently, in overweight subjects, the clinical trials and the metaanalyses showed an inverse correlation between tea consumption and CVDs. As regards coffee, it has long been suspected to be associated to high risk of CVDs. Nevertheless, some recent investigations reported that moderate coffee consumption have no effect or even protective effects against CVDs risk factors. The results of the metaanalyses confirm this trend suggesting that moderate coffee drinkers could be associated to a lower risk of CVDs than non- or occasional coffee drinkers or no association can be demonstrated between coffee consumption and CVDs. Literature data on tea consumption and CVD risk factors support that tea consumption reduces some risk factors especially in overweight people and obese subjects. Therefore, these results seem to suggest that tea could exert a protective effects against CVD development. As regards coffee, the results are controversial and did not allow to draw conclusions. Therefore, further research is needed before definitive recommendations for coffee consumption against CVD development can be made. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please

  6. [Effectiveness of an intervention to improve quality care in reducing cardiovascular risk in hypertense patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Marcos, Manuel A; García Ortiz, Luis; González Elena, Luis Javier; Sánchez Rodríguez, Angel

    2006-05-31

    To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention on health workers, based on quality improvement through reduction of cardiovascular risk in patients with hypertension. Quasi-experimental study. Primary care. Two urban health centres. A thousand hypertense patients selected by stratified random sampling. One centre (500) was assigned to implement a quality improvement intervention, while at the other centre (500) "usual care" procedures were followed (control group). The quality improvement intervention consisted of a combined program designed for the medical and nursing staff that comprised audit, feedback, training sessions, and implementation of clinical practice guidelines. Coronary risk using the Framingham scale and cardiovascular mortality risk using the SCORE project. Absolute coronary risk decreased from 16.94% (95% CI, 15.92-17.66) to 13.81% (95% CI, 13.09-14.52) (P<.001) in the intervention group; whilst there was no significant change in the control group, which dropped from 17.63% (95% CI, 16.68-18.53) to 16.82% (95% CI, 15.91-17.74). The intervention led to a 2.28% point decrease (95% CI, 1.35-3.21) (P<.001) in coronary risk. Cardiovascular mortality risk decreased from 2.48% (95% CI, 2.35-2.62) to 2.19% (95% CI, 2.07-2.31) (P<.001) in the intervention group, with no significant change in the control group, which changed from 2.45% (95% CI, 2.30-2.59) to 2.52% (95% CI, 2.38-2.66). The intervention led to a 0.36% point decrease (95% CI, 0.05-0.73) (P<.001) in cardiovascular mortality risk. The quality improvement intervention was effective in decreasing coronary risk and cardiovascular mortality risk in patients with hypertension.

  7. Gender effects in young road users on road safety attitudes, behaviours and risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierluigi Cordellieri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, we investigated gender-related effects on road safety attitudesin 2,681 young drivers (1,458 males, 54.4%; aged 18-22 who filled out several scales assessing attitudes towards road safety issues, driving behaviour in specific hypothetical situations, accident risk perception, and concerns about such a risk. We focused only on young drivers to better understand the role of gender in road safety attitudes in a period of life in which risky behaviours are widespread for males and females. Indeed, there is still no agreement as to the nature of these gender differences. According to some authors, the effects of gender on being involved in a crash due to driving skills are either non-existent or largely explained by differences in alcohol consumption. In our study, we found gender differences in road safety attitudes (i.e., negative attitude toward traffic rules and risky driving; negative attitude towards drugs and alcohol and tolerance toward speeding and in driver behaviour (i.e., errors in inattentive driving and driving violations. This result is consistent in all drivers coming from nine different European countries. Our analyses yielded an important finding concerning risk perception. The results indicate that the level of risk perception during driving is the same for males and females. However, these two groups differ in the level of concern about this risk, with males being less concerned about the risk of a road accident. This suggests that the main difference between these two groups is not strictly related to judgment of the perceived risk probability but rather to the level of concern experienced about the consequences of the risk. This difference between risk perception and worry could explain differences in the frequency of car accidents in the two groups. The present findings may provide new insights for the development of gender-based prevention programs.

  8. The white (male) effect and risk perception: can equality make a difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olofsson, Anna; Rashid, Saman

    2011-06-01

    Previous research has shown that white males have a relatively low perception of risks, known as the "white male effect" (WME). Many of the explanations of this effect refer to the privileged position of this particular demographic group in society, adducing white males' socio-economic resources, sense of control, worldviews, etc. It can thus be argued that inequality leads women and ethnic minorities to have higher risk perception than men and the ethnic majority. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the WME in a gender-equal country, Sweden, to see if the pattern is similar to previous studies from the comparably less gender-equal United States. The empirical analyses are based on a national survey (n= 1,472) on the perception of risk conducted in Sweden in the winter of 2005. The results show that in Sweden there is no significant difference between men and women in risk perception, while people with foreign backgrounds perceive risks higher than native people. The chief finding is that there is no WME in Sweden, which we concluded results from the relative equality between the sexes in the country. On the other hand, ethnicity serves as a marker of inequality and discrimination in Sweden. Consequently, ethnicity, in terms of foreign background, mediates inequality, resulting in high risk perception. Equality therefore seems to be a fruitful concept with which to examine differences in risk perception between groups in society, and we propose that the "societal inequality effect" is a more proper description than the "WME." © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  10. Investigating the effect of corporate governance on risk of private banks and insurance firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Taghavi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of corporate governance on risk taking of private insurance firms and banks in Iran. The proposed study of this paper considers the financial information of 13 banks and 19 private insurance firms over the period 2006-2011 in Iran. The study investigates the effects of five variables including size, CEO duality task, composition of the board of directors, ownership concentration and having an internal auditing system on risk taking of private banks and insurance firms in Iran. Using some panel data and regression analysis, the study confirms the positive effect of the ownership concentration as well as negative impact of non-bound board members on risk taking.

  11. The Effects of Chronic Aerobic Exercise on Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Persons with Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miele, Emily M; Headley, Samuel A E

    2017-09-12

    Aerobic exercise training is a component of diabetes mellitus (DM) care guidelines due to its favorable effects on glycemic control and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. The purpose of this review is to outline the recent evidence regarding the clinical effects of chronic aerobic exercise on CVD risk factors in persons with DM and to compare the effects of varying intensities and types of exercise. Among individuals with DM, all types of aerobic exercise training can impact positively on some traditional and non-traditional risk factors for CVD. Training programs with a higher volume or intensity induce greater improvements in vascular function, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and lipid profiles. The beneficial outcomes of aerobic training include improvements in glycemic control, endothelial function, oxidative stress, dyslipidemia, myocardial function, adiposity, and CRF. Findings regarding markers of inflammation are discrepant and further research should focus on the role of exercise to impact upon the chronic inflammation associated with DM.

  12. Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Štulec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Non-catastrophic weather risk is gaining importance as climate change becomes more pronounced and economic crisis forces companies to strengthen their cost control. Recent literature proposes weather derivatives as flexible weather risk mitigating tools. Only a handful of studies analysed the feasibility of weather derivatives in industries other than agriculture and energy. The purpose of this paper is to review available weather risk management solutions in retail, present weather derivatives as non-catastrophic weather risk management tools, empirically demonstrate the process of designing weather derivatives and assess their effectiveness as risk mitigating tools in retail. Empirical analysis is performed on beverage sales in 60 large food stores in Croatia, and performance of monthly temperature put options during the summer season is examined. For weather sensitivity analysis of sales, the method of panel regression was used. Results show that weather has a statistically significant effect on beverage sales and that weather derivatives prove to be effective in beverage sales uncertainty reduction. Their effectiveness differs between covered periods and cities.

  13. Carryover effects of predation risk on postembryonic life-history stages in a freshwater shrimp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ituarte, Romina Belén; Vázquez, María Guadalupe; González-Sagrario, María de los Ángeles; Spivak, Eduardo Daniel

    2014-04-01

    For organisms with complex life histories it is well known that risk experienced early in life, as embryos or larvae, may have effects throughout the life cycle. Although carryover effects have been well documented in invertebrates with different levels of parental care, there are few examples of predator-induced responses in externally brooded embryos. Here, we studied the effects of nonlethal predation risk throughout the embryonic development of newly spawned eggs carried by female shrimp on the timing of egg hatching, hatchling morphology, larval development and juvenile morphology. We also determined maternal body mass at the end of the embryonic period. Exposure to predation risk cues during embryonic development led to larger larvae which also had longer rostra but reached the juvenile stage sooner, at a smaller size and with shorter rostra. There was no difference in hatching timing, but changes in larval morphology and developmental timing showed that the embryos had perceived waterborne substances indicative of predation risk. In addition to carryover effects on larval and juvenile stages, predation threat provoked a decrease of body mass in mothers exposed to predator cues while brooding. Our results suggest that risk-exposed embryos were able to recognize the same infochemicals as their mothers, manifesting a response in the free-living larval stage. Thus, future studies assessing anti-predator phenotypes should include embryonic development, which seems to determine the morphology and developmental time of subsequent life-history stages according to perceived environmental conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  14. Neuropsychological effects of the CSMD1 genome-wide associated schizophrenia risk variant rs10503253.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Donohoe, G

    2013-03-01

    The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs10503253, located within the CUB and Sushi multiple domains-1 (CSMD1) gene on 8p23.2, was recently identified as genome-wide significant for schizophrenia (SZ), but is of unknown function. We investigated the neurocognitive effects of this CSMD1 variant in vivo in patients and healthy participants using behavioral and imaging measures of brain structure and function. We compared carriers and non-carriers of the risk \\'A\\' allele on measures of neuropsychological performance typically impaired in SZ (general cognitive ability, episodic and working memory and attentional control) in independent samples of Irish patients (n = 387) and controls (n = 171) and German patients (205) and controls (n = 533). Across these groups, the risk \\'A\\' allele at CSMD1 was associated with deleterious effects across a number of neurocognitive phenotypes. Specifically, the risk allele was associated with poorer performance on neuropsychological measures of general cognitive ability and memory function but not attentional control. These effects, while significant, were subtle, and varied between samples. Consistent with previous evidence suggesting that CSMD1 may be involved in brain mechanisms related to memory and learning, these data appear to reflect the deleterious effects of the identified \\'A\\' risk allele on neurocognitive function, possibly as part of the mechanism by which CSMD1 is associated with SZ risk.

  15. The effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Akhavi Babi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to investigate the effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The statistical population of the study consisted of the companies accepted by Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the conditions for sampling, 65 companies were selected during a period of six years from 2008 to 2013 (i.e., 390 fiscal years, and four hypotheses were set forth to achieve the purposes of the study. The first hypothesis tried to assess the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The second, third, and fourth hypotheses investigated the significance of the effects of three financial risks, namely liquidity, credit, and solvency risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The hypotheses of the study were tested using linear and multiple regressions. The findings of the study indicated that there was a positive and significant relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. In addition, the results proved that the credit and solvency risks had negative and significant effects on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns, but the effect of liquidity risk on this relationship was not significant.

  16. Implementation of lean construction techniques for minimizing the risks effect on project construction time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usama Hamed Issa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The construction projects involve various risk factors which have various impacts on time objective that may lead to time-overrun. This study suggests and applies a new technique for minimizing risk factors effect on time using lean construction principles. The lean construction is implemented in this study using the last planner system through execution of an industrial project in Egypt. Evaluating the effect of using the new tool is described in terms of two measurements: Percent Expected Time-overrun (PET and Percent Plan Completed (PPC. The most important risk factors are identified and assessed, while PET is quantified at the project start and during the project execution using a model for time-overrun quantification. The results showed that total project time is reduced by 15.57% due to decreasing PET values, while PPC values improved. This is due to minimizing and mitigating the effect of most of the risk factors in this project due to implementing lean construction techniques. The results proved that the quantification model is suitable for evaluating the effect of using lean construction techniques. In addition, the results showed that average value of PET due to factors affected by lean techniques represents 67% from PET values due to all minimized risk factors.

  17. The effect of different cardiovascular risk presentation formats on intentions, understanding and emotional affect: a randomised controlled trial using a web-based risk formatter (protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newcombe Robert

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The future risk of heart disease can be predicted with increasing precision. However, more research is needed into how this risk is conveyed and presented. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of presenting cardiovascular risk in different formats on individuals' intention to change behaviour to reduce risk, understanding of risk information and emotional affect. Methods/design A randomised controlled trial comprising four arms, with a between subjects design will be performed. There will be two intervention groups and two control groups. The first control comprises a pre-intervention questionnaire and presents risk in a bar graph format. The second control presents risk in a bar graph format without pre-intervention questionnaire. These two control groups are to account for the potential Hawthorne effect of thinking about cardiovascular risk before viewing actual risk. The two intervention groups comprise presenting risk in either a pictogram or metonym format (image depicting seriousness of having a myocardial infarction. 800 individuals' aged between 45 and 64 years, who have not been previously diagnosed with heart disease and have access to a computer with internet, will be given a link to a website comprising a risk calculator and electronic questionnaires. 10-year risk of having a coronary heart disease event will be assessed and presented in one of the three formats. A post-intervention questionnaire will be completed after viewing the risk format. Main outcome measures are (i intention to change behaviour, (ii understanding of risk information, (iii emotional affect and (iv worry about future heart disease. Secondary outcomes are the sub-components of the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceived behavioural control and subjective norms. Discussion Having reviewed the literature, we are not aware of any other studies which have used the assessment of actual risk, in a trial to compare different

  18. Contrasting the Effect of Risk- and Non Risk-Based Capital Structure on Insurers’ Performance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunday S. Akpan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Literature on capital-based regulation and performance of insurers in emerging market is not only limited; it is incomplete, particularly on a comparative basis. This has continuously attracts researchers’ interest and concerns for practitioners and policy makers. This paper therefore examines the effect of capital structure on performance of insurers comparatively before and after the implementation of risk-based capital (RBC policy in Nigeria to determine which policy regime enables insurers to perform better. Descriptive statistics are employed to describe the characteristics of the data while the hypotheses are tested using two-stage estimation procedure of fixed and random effect models. Results reveal that insurance capital structure (measured by technical provision ratio has a significant positive effect on insurance performance (measured by earnings per share and return on asset during non-RBC regime when compared to RBC regime. Based on these findings, it is concluded that insurers in Nigeria performed better under non-RBC than RBC era. This finding provides important insight to managers, regulators and investors by fostering more understanding of how to manipulate and regulate insurance capital for performance optimization under RBC scenarios.

  19. Cancer risk among atomic bomb survivors. The RERF Life Span Study. Radiation Effects Research Foundation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Y.; Schull, W.J.; Kato, H.

    1990-01-01

    This article summarizes the risk of cancer among the survivors of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We focus primarily on the risk of death from cancer among individuals in the Life Span Study sample of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation from 1950 through 1985 based on recently revised dosimetry procedures. We report the risk of cancer other than leukemia among the atomic bomb survivors. We note that the number of excess deaths of radiation-induced malignant tumors other than leukemia increases with age. Survivors who were exposed in the first or second decade of life have just entered the cancer-prone age and have so far exhibited a high relative risk in association with radiation dose. Whether the elevated risk will continue or will fall with time is not yet clear, although some evidence suggests that the risk may be declining. It is important to continue long-term follow-up of this cohort to document the changes with time since exposure and to provide direct rather than projected risks over the lifetime of an exposed individual

  20. The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

    1999-06-01

    A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  1. The effect of medical treatments on stroke risk in asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Alice; Shipley, Martin; Markus, Hugh

    2013-02-01

    Recent evidence suggests current best medical treatment may be sufficient to prevent stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. If this is the case, then it is important to determine risk reduction provided by treatments. Using Asymptomatic Carotid Emboli Study (ACES) prospective data, the effect of current treatment and risk factors on future stroke and transient ischemic attack risk were determined. Four-hundred seventy-seven patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis were followed-up every 6 months for 2 years. Changes in risk factors and stroke prevention therapies were reviewed at each visit. Using time-dependent Cox regression, the relationship between current treatment over time was determined and presented as hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk of stroke, transient ischemic attack, and cardiovascular death end points. On multivariate analysis, antiplatelets (P=0.001) and lower mean blood pressure (P=0.002) were independent predictors of reduced risk of ipsilateral stroke and transient ischemic attack. Antiplatelets (Pstroke or cardiovascular death. Antiplatelet therapy and blood pressure control are the most important factors in reducing short-term stroke and cardiovascular risk in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. More prospective data are required for medical treatments in asymptomatic carotid stenosis in particular for current statin usage.

  2. Examining the effect of the injury definition on risk factor analysis in circus artists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, G M; Meeuwisse, W H; Emery, C A; Shrier, I

    2012-06-01

    A secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study was conducted to explore how different definitions of injury affect the results of risk factor analyses. Modern circus artists (n=1281) were followed for 828,547 performances over a period of 49 months (2004-2008). A univariate risk factor analysis (age, sex, nationality, artist role) estimating incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was conducted using three injury definitions: (1) medical attention injuries, (2) time-loss injuries resulting in ≥1 missed performances (TL-1) and (3) time-loss injuries resulting in >15 missed performances (TL-15). Results of the risk factor analysis were dependent on the injury definition. Sex (females to male; IRR=1.13, 95% CI; 1.02-1.25) and age over 30 (30 years; IRR=1.37, 95% CI; 1.07-1.79) were risk factors for medical attention injuries only. Risk of injury for Europeans compared with North Americans was higher for TL-1 and TL-15 injuries compared with medical attention injuries. Finally, non-sudden load artists (low-impact acts) were less likely than sudden load artists (high-impact acts) to have TL-1 injuries, but the risk of medical attention injuries was similar. The choice of injury definition can have effects on the magnitude and direction of risk factor analyses. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  3. Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

    2017-06-01

    The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  4. The effect of exercise on obesity, body fat distribution and risk for type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goedecke, Julia H; Micklesfield, Lisa K

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), while exercise is known to reduce body fatness and attenuate the risk of T2D. The aim of this chapter is to examine the interactions between exercise, obesity and body fat distribution, and the risk for T2D. Firstly, we show that body fatness, in particular visceral adipose tissue (VAT) accumulation, is associated with insulin resistance and incident T2D. We then show that aerobic exercise of sufficient intensity and volume results in a decrease in body fat and VAT. Conversely, sedentary behavior and physical inactivity are associated with increased body fat and VAT. Finally, the chapter examines the interaction between physical activity (PA), obesity and risk for T2D and shows that both obesity and PA are significant independent predictors of incident T2D, but the magnitude of risk imparted by high levels of body fat is much greater than that of low levels of PA. Further, we show that obese physically active individuals are at greater risk for incident T2D than normal-weight physically inactive individuals. The mechanisms underlying this complex interaction include the ability of exercise to increase free fatty acid oxidation to match high rates of lipolysis associated with obesity, as well as the effects of exercise on adipokine, cytokine and myokine secretion. Exercise, of sufficient volume and intensity, is therefore recommended to reduce obesity, centralization of body fat, and risk of T2D.

  5. Interactive effect between depression and chronic medical conditions on fall risk in community-dwelling elders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Senyeong; Wang, Yun-Chang; Tzeng, Ya-Mei; Liang, Chang-Kuo; Lin, Fu-Gong

    2012-09-01

    It is well documented that fall risk among elderly people is associated with poor health and depression. In this study, we set out to examine the combined effects of medical condition and depression status on fall incidents among community-dwelling elderly people. A cross-sectional study was carried out to investigate the fall history of community-dwelling elders involving 360 participants. Those who had experienced at least two falls over the previous year, or one injurious fall, were defined as "fallers." The Geriatric Depression Scale-15 was used as a screening instrument for depression status. Based on a multivariate logistic regression and stratification analysis, depression was found to interact with various medical conditions on fall risk. In comparison with the non-depressive reference group, a six-fold fall risk was discernible among depressed elders with polypharmacy, while a five-fold risk was found among depressive elders using ancillary devices, along with a four-fold risk among depressive elders with diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Finally, arthritis was found to produce a nine-fold risk of falls among such populations. These findings suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on the integration of depression screening as an element of fall risk assessment in elderly people.

  6. The effect of macroeconomic factors on credit risk in the banking system of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available These days, there are increasing changes on environmental and economic networks and different risks of various institutions affect the financial structure. Different institutions including financial and credit institutions are facing with the risk of lack of their timely obligations to make sure the repayment of the funds is granted. In this study, the effects of economic factors not affected by intentional behavior of customers are investigated. Statistical study of the banking system includes all public and private banks. Statistical research community from 2005 to 2010 is considered. The cross-sectional data of the study and a combination of regression analysis is used. The regression analysis of combined data, fixed effects model based on the data is a cross-sectional fit. According to results of regression analysis, Pearson and Spearman's Correlation Coefficient, there is no significant relationship between the inflation rate, employment rate, unemployment rate, the dollar, the euro, with import growth of credit risk in the banking system in Iran. Therefore, based on probability theory, it can be stated that the credit risk in the banking system in Iran under the influence of variables is not mentioned. In addition, positive and significant relationship between stock index and credit risk in the banking system in Iran has increased by Weber in this index increases and reducing credit risk is reduced.

  7. The effectiveness of risk management program on pediatric nurses' medication error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghan-Nayeri, Nahid; Bayat, Fariba; Salehi, Tahmineh; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat

    2013-09-01

    Medication therapy is one of the most complex and high-risk clinical processes that nurses deal with. Medication error is the most common type of error that brings about damage and death to patients, especially pediatric ones. However, these errors are preventable. Identifying and preventing undesirable events leading to medication errors are the main risk management activities. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a risk management program on the pediatric nurses' medication error rate. This study is a quasi-experimental one with a comparison group. In this study, 200 nurses were recruited from two main pediatric hospitals in Tehran. In the experimental hospital, we applied the risk management program for a period of 6 months. Nurses of the control hospital did the hospital routine schedule. A pre- and post-test was performed to measure the frequency of the medication error events. SPSS software, t-test, and regression analysis were used for data analysis. After the intervention, the medication error rate of nurses at the experimental hospital was significantly lower (P error-reporting rate was higher (P medical environment, applying the quality-control programs such as risk management can effectively prevent the occurrence of the hospital undesirable events. Nursing mangers can reduce the medication error rate by applying risk management programs. However, this program cannot succeed without nurses' cooperation.

  8. Risk management for outsourcing biomedical waste disposal – Using the failure mode and effects analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Ching-Jong; Ho, Chao Chung

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • This study is based on a real case in hospital in Taiwan. • We use Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as the evaluation method. • We successfully identify the evaluation factors of bio-medical waste disposal risk. - Abstract: Using the failure mode and effects analysis, this study examined biomedical waste companies through risk assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the supervisors of biomedical waste units in hospitals, and factors relating to the outsourcing risk assessment of biomedical waste in hospitals by referring to waste disposal acts. An expert questionnaire survey was conducted on the personnel involved in waste disposal units in hospitals, in order to identify important factors relating to the outsourcing risk of biomedical waste in hospitals. This study calculated the risk priority number (RPN) and selected items with an RPN value higher than 80 for improvement. These items included “availability of freezing devices”, “availability of containers for sharp items”, “disposal frequency”, “disposal volume”, “disposal method”, “vehicles meeting the regulations”, and “declaration of three lists”. This study also aimed to identify important selection factors of biomedical waste disposal companies by hospitals in terms of risk. These findings can serve as references for hospitals in the selection of outsourcing companies for biomedical waste disposal

  9. Risk management for outsourcing biomedical waste disposal – Using the failure mode and effects analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, Ching-Jong; Ho, Chao Chung, E-mail: ho919@pchome.com.tw

    2014-07-15

    Highlights: • This study is based on a real case in hospital in Taiwan. • We use Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as the evaluation method. • We successfully identify the evaluation factors of bio-medical waste disposal risk. - Abstract: Using the failure mode and effects analysis, this study examined biomedical waste companies through risk assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the supervisors of biomedical waste units in hospitals, and factors relating to the outsourcing risk assessment of biomedical waste in hospitals by referring to waste disposal acts. An expert questionnaire survey was conducted on the personnel involved in waste disposal units in hospitals, in order to identify important factors relating to the outsourcing risk of biomedical waste in hospitals. This study calculated the risk priority number (RPN) and selected items with an RPN value higher than 80 for improvement. These items included “availability of freezing devices”, “availability of containers for sharp items”, “disposal frequency”, “disposal volume”, “disposal method”, “vehicles meeting the regulations”, and “declaration of three lists”. This study also aimed to identify important selection factors of biomedical waste disposal companies by hospitals in terms of risk. These findings can serve as references for hospitals in the selection of outsourcing companies for biomedical waste disposal.

  10. Moderating effect of perceived risk on the relationship between product safety and intention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarina Ismail

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Herbal Products industry has experienced significant growth in product demand. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors effecting the actual buying of Herbal Product. This study also examines the moderation effect of perceived risk on the relationship between product safety and intention. Mall intercept survey was used to collect data from six various states in Malaysia. The data is analyzed using Partial Least Squares (PLS path modeling. The path coefficient results supported the direct influence of intention on actual buying. Similarly, the findings reveal that perceived risk moderate the relationship between product safety and buying intention.

  11. Estimation of stochastic effects risk in children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jova S, L.; Garcia L, O.; Valdes R, M.

    1996-01-01

    Radiation risk estimation of stochastic effect was evaluated in a group of children assisted in the Cuba Republic as part of the program for medical attention with children from areas affected by the Chernobyl accident . Doses, received from different sources, were estimated for risk evaluation. The study shows total detrimental effects between 0,02 - 0,01% for different groups; values lower than expected for developed country (17-20%). Fatal thyroid cancer increased up to 0,07% in one of the studied groups. (authors). 8 refs., 4 tabs

  12. Does good leadership buffer effects of high emotional demands at work on risk of antidepressant treatment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ida E H; Hanson, Linda L Magnusson; Rugulies, Reiner Ernst

    2014-01-01

    Emotionally demanding work has been associated with increased risk of common mental disorders. Because emotional demands may not be preventable in certain occupations, the identification of workplace factors that can modify this association is vital. This article examines whether effects of emoti...... of emotional demands on antidepressant treatment, as an indicator of common mental disorders, are buffered by good leadership.......Emotionally demanding work has been associated with increased risk of common mental disorders. Because emotional demands may not be preventable in certain occupations, the identification of workplace factors that can modify this association is vital. This article examines whether effects...

  13. Shifting Selves and Decision Making: The Effects of Self-Construal Priming on Consumer Risk-Taking.

    OpenAIRE

    Mandel, Naomi

    2003-01-01

    This research illustrates how risk domain moderates the effects of priming the interdependent self versus the independent self on consumers' risk-taking. Experiment 1 showed that individuals whose interdependent selves were activated were more risk-seeking in their financial choices and less risk-seeking in their social choices than were those whose independent selves were activated. The size of the consumer's social network mediated these effects. Experiment 2 replicated these results using ...

  14. Supporting families in a high-risk setting: proximal effects of the SAFEChildren preventive intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolan, Patrick; Gorman-Smith, Deborah; Henry, David

    2004-10-01

    Four hundred twenty-four families who resided in inner-city neighborhoods and had a child entering 1st grade were randomly assigned to a control condition or to a family-focused preventive intervention combined with academic tutoring. SAFEChildren, which was developed from a developmental-ecological perspective, emphasizes developmental tasks and community factors in understanding risk and prevention. Tracking of linear-growth trends through 6 months after intervention indicated an overall effect of increased academic performance and better parental involvement in school. High-risk families had additional benefits for parental monitoring, child-problem behaviors, and children's social competence. High-risk youth showed improvement in problem behaviors and social competence. Results support a family-focused intervention that addresses risk in low-income communities as managing abnormal challenges.

  15. Pleiotropic effects of type 2 diabetes management strategies on renal risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muskiet, Marcel H A; Tonneijck, Lennart; Smits, Mark M; Kramer, Mark H H; Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers; van Raalte, Daniël H

    2015-05-01

    In parallel with the type 2 diabetes pandemic, diabetic kidney disease has become the leading cause of end-stage renal disease worldwide, and is associated with high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. As established in landmark randomised trials and recommended in clinical guidelines, prevention and treatment of diabetic kidney disease focuses on control of the two main renal risk factors, hyperglycaemia and systemic hypertension. Treatment of systemic hypertension with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers is advocated because these drugs seem to exert specific renoprotective effects beyond blood pressure lowering. Emerging evidence shows that obesity, glomerular hyperfiltration, albuminuria, and dyslipidaemia might also adversely affect the kidney in diabetes. Control of these risk factors could have additional benefits on renal outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes. However, despite multifactorial treatment approaches, residual risk for the development and progression of diabetic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes remains, and novel strategies or therapies to treat the disease are urgently needed. Several drugs used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes are associated with pleiotropic effects that could favourably or unfavourably change patients' renal risk profile. We review the risk factors and treatment of diabetic kidney disease, and describe the pleiotropic effects of widely used drugs in type 2 diabetes management on renal outcomes, with special emphasis on antihyperglycaemic drugs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Effectiveness of Different Preventive Programs in Cariogram Parameters of Young Adults at High Caries Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Karabekiroğlu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the effectiveness of different preventive programs in young adults at high caries risk using Cariogram software. Methods. Sixty-six young adults with high caries risk were evaluated. Dental caries risk for all subjects was determined according to WHO criteria. Subjects were divided into three different preventive groups (control: OH, fluoride varnish: FV, and chlorhexidine varnish: CV. They were followed for 12 weeks (baseline: T0, 1 week: T1, 4 weeks: T2, and 12 weeks: T3. Plaque index, diet frequency, and salivary chairside tests (to record the flow rate, buffer capacity, and mutans streptococci and lactobacillus counts were performed at each visit. Based on these data, ten caries-related variables were collected and inserted into the Cariogram software to calculate the predicted chance of avoiding caries for each subject. Results. Significant changes were obtained about the Cariogram parameters (diet, bacteria, susceptibility, circumstances, and Cariogram risk group. No significant differences were found between the three methods regarding mean Cariogram scores after 3 months (p>0.05. Conclusions. The regular and effective short-term (three months use of 1450 ppm fluoridated toothpaste, one visit application of fluoride, and chlorhexidine varnishes were effective for reducing caries risk in young adults, which can be clearly demonstrated using Cariogram software.

  17. The effects of providing periodontal disease risk information on psychological outcomes - a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimakopoulou, Koula; Newton, Jonathon Tim; Daly, Blánaid; Kutzer, Yvonne; Ide, Mark

    2015-04-01

    In a two arm randomized controlled trial this study compared the effects of a routine periodontal assessment consultation versus a routine consultation + individualized risk assessment communication intervention on patient thoughts and emotions about periodontal disease. Adults (N = 102) with moderate/advanced chronic periodontitis referred to a Periodontology Department of a large UK dental school, completed psychological measures before a periodontal assessment and again at the end of the visit. Intervention participants received an individualized calculation of their periodontal disease risk using PreViser Risk Calculator in addition to their routine assessment consultation. In routine care, patients' thoughts about periodontal disease seriousness (p periodontal disease. These effects were also seen in intervention participants. Additionally, the individualized risk communication intervention led to patients reporting i) periodontal disease treatment as more effective than they did pre-consultation (p periodontal management (p periodontal disease risk communication influences psychological variables that underpin adherence with periodontal instructions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Ultraviolet radiation: effects on risks of prostate cancer and other internal cancers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Samuel J. [Human Genomics Research Group, Institute of Science and Technology in Medicine and Department of Urology, Keele University School of Medicine, University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Hartshill Campus, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 7PA Staffordshire (United Kingdom); Fryer, Anthony A. [Human Genomics Research Group, Institute of Science and Technology in Medicine and Department of Urology, Keele University School of Medicine, University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Hartshill Campus, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 7PA Staffordshire (United Kingdom); Strange, Richard C. [Human Genomics Research Group, Institute of Science and Technology in Medicine and Department of Urology, Keele University School of Medicine, University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Hartshill Campus, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 7PA Staffordshire (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: paa00@keele.ac.uk

    2005-04-01

    Governmental and research agencies worldwide have strongly advocated sun avoidance strategies in an attempt to counter marked increases in skin cancer incidence. Concurrently, there are reports describing widespread Vitamin D{sub 3} deficiency. Because 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D{sub 3}, through interaction with the Vitamin D receptor, exerts pleiotrophic effects, such deficiency might be expected to have clinical consequences. Indeed, various reports indicate that exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exerts a protective effect on development of some common diseases including internal cancers and multiple sclerosis. We describe studies indicating that modest exposure reduces risk of prostate cancer. The effect of UVR is mediated by skin type; at lower levels of exposure a relative inability to effect skin pigmentation is protective presumably because it allows more efficient Vitamin D{sub 3} synthesis. Polymorphic variants in genes associated with pigmentation including melanocyte stimulating hormone receptor and tyrosinase are also associated with prostate cancer risk. Overall, though preliminary and requiring cautious interpretation, these data indicate that moderate UVR exposure together with characteristics linked with less effective tanning confer reduced prostate cancer risk. Clearly, it is important to define safe levels of UVR that do not result in increased risk of skin cancers such as malignant melanoma.

  19. Exploring the Influence of Neighborhood Characteristics on Burglary Risks: A Bayesian Random Effects Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.

  20. Ultraviolet radiation: effects on risks of prostate cancer and other internal cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Samuel J.; Fryer, Anthony A.; Strange, Richard C.

    2005-01-01

    Governmental and research agencies worldwide have strongly advocated sun avoidance strategies in an attempt to counter marked increases in skin cancer incidence. Concurrently, there are reports describing widespread Vitamin D 3 deficiency. Because 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D 3 , through interaction with the Vitamin D receptor, exerts pleiotrophic effects, such deficiency might be expected to have clinical consequences. Indeed, various reports indicate that exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exerts a protective effect on development of some common diseases including internal cancers and multiple sclerosis. We describe studies indicating that modest exposure reduces risk of prostate cancer. The effect of UVR is mediated by skin type; at lower levels of exposure a relative inability to effect skin pigmentation is protective presumably because it allows more efficient Vitamin D 3 synthesis. Polymorphic variants in genes associated with pigmentation including melanocyte stimulating hormone receptor and tyrosinase are also associated with prostate cancer risk. Overall, though preliminary and requiring cautious interpretation, these data indicate that moderate UVR exposure together with characteristics linked with less effective tanning confer reduced prostate cancer risk. Clearly, it is important to define safe levels of UVR that do not result in increased risk of skin cancers such as malignant melanoma

  1. Chronic Latent Magnesium Deficiency in Obesity Decreases Positive Effects of Vitamin D on Cardiometabolic Risk Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokic, Edita; Romani, Andrea; Ilincic, Branislava; Kupusinac, Aleksandar; Stosic, Zoran; Isenovic, Esma R

    2017-08-21

    Obesity and micronutrient deficiencies contribute to the risk of cardiometabolic diseases such are type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined the frequency of concomitant deficit of magnesium (Mg) and vitamin D in obese patients and evaluated the connection of these combined deficiencies with indicators of cardiometabolic risk in non-diabetic subjects. Non-diabetic middle aged adults (n = 80; mean age 36 ± 4 years, 52% women) were recruited based on weight/adiposity parameters [i.e. body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (FAT%)]. Cardiometabolic risk indicators [insulin resistance (Homeostatic Model Assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)) and CVD risk (Framingham risk score for predicting 10-year CVD)], Mg status [i.e. total serum Mg concentration (TMg), chronic latent Mg deficiency (CLMD) - 0.75-0.85 mmol/L], vitamin D status [i.e. serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), vitamin D deficiency <50 nmol/l] were assessed. Among obese subjects 36% presented a combination of vitamin D deficiency and CLMD. In all studied patients, 25(OH)D and TMg levels both, individually and combined, showed a negative linear correlation with HOMA-IR and CVD risk. In subjects with CLMD (TMg ˂0.85 mmol/L), a negative linear coefficient was found between 25(OH)D and, HOMA-IR and CVD risk, compared with subjects with normal TMg status (TMg ≥0.85 mmol/L). CLMD and vitamin D deficiency may commonly be present in obese non-diabetic subjects. Individually and combined, both deficiencies predispose non-diabetic patients to increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. Maintaining normal Mg status may improve the beneficial effects of vitamin D on cardiometabolic risk indicators. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  2. Cost-effective treatment of low-risk carcinoma not invading bladder muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, David A; Rink, Michael; Cha, Eugene K; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Chughtai, Bilal; Scherr, Douglas S; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Lee, Richard K

    2013-03-01

    Study Type - Therapy (cost effectiveness analysis) Level of Evidence 2a What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Bladder cancer is one of the costliest malignancies to treat throughout the life of a patient. The most cost-effective management for low-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer is not known. The current study shows that employing cystoscopic office fulguration for low-risk appearing bladder cancer recurrences can materially impact the cost-effectiveness of therapy. In a follow-up protocol where office fulguration is routinely employed for low-risk bladder cancers, peri-operative intravesical chemotherapy may not provide any additional cost-effectiveness benefit. To examine the cost-effectiveness of fulguration vs transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) with and without perioperative intravesical chemotherapy (PIC) for managing low-risk carcinoma not invading bladder muscle (NMIBC). Low-risk NMIBC carries a low progression rate, lending support to the use of office-based fulguration for small recurrences rather than traditional TURBT. A Markov state transition model was created to simulate treatment of NMIBC with vs without PIC, with recurrence treated by formal TURBT vs treatment with fulguration. Costing data were obtained from the Medicare Resource Based Relative Value Scale. Data regarding the success of PIC were obtained from the peer-reviewed literature, as were corresponding utilities for bladder cancer-related procedures. Sensitivity analyses were performed. At 5-year follow-up, a strategy of fulguration without PIC was the most cost-effective (mean cost-effectiveness = US $654.8/quality-adjusted life year), despite a lower recurrence rate with PIC. Both fulguration strategies dominated each TURBT strategy. Sensitivity analysis showed that fulguration without PIC dominated all other strategies when the recurrence rate after PIC was increased to ≥14.2% per year. Similarly, the cost-effectiveness of TURBT becomes more

  3. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  4. A study on effective factors influencing on equity risk in banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Measuring the effects of various factors influencing on risk of return in banking system plays essential role on making managerial decisions. This paper investigates the effects of seven factors including equities, leverage, dividend, size, growth domestic products, bank concentration and market return on risk of return in selected banks listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects the necessary data through financial statements announced on exchange as well as macro-economic figures reported by central bank of Iran to examine the hypotheses of the survey. Using some regression technique, the study has determined that only bank size and growth domestic product influence significantly on risk of return on Tehran Stock Exchange.

  5. Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

    1987-07-01

    A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did not perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program

  6. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

    2016-04-01

    It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some

  7. The Certification Framework: Risk Assessment for Safety and Effectiveness of Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldenburg, C. M.; Nicot, J.; Bryant, S. L.

    2008-12-01

    Motivated by the dual objectives of (1) encouraging geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) as one of several strategies urgently needed to reduce CO2 emissions, and (2) protecting the environment from unintended CO2 injection-related impacts, we have developed a simple and transparent framework for certifying GCS safety and effectiveness at individual sites. The approach we developed, called the Certification Framework (CF), is proposed as a standard way for project proponents, regulators, and the public to analyze and understand risks and uncertainties of GCS. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO2 leakage risk, where we use the standard definition of risk involving the two factors (1) probability of a particular leakage scenario, and (2) impact of that leakage scenario. In short, if the CO2 leakage risk as calculated by the CF is below threshold values for the life of the project, then effective trapping is predicted and the site can be certified. The concept of effective trapping is more general than traditional "no migration" approaches to underground injection regulation. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) five compartments to represent where impacts can occur (underground sources of drinking water, hydrocarbon and mineral resources, near-surface environment, health and safety, and emission credits and atmosphere), (3) modeled CO2 fluxes and concentrations as proxies for impact to compartments, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated CO2 plumes, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO2 plume with the conduits and compartments. In a case study application of the CF for a saline formation GCS site in the Texas Gulf Coast, analysis with the CF suggested the overall leakage risk to be very small, with the largest contribution coming from risk to the near-surface environment due to potential leakage up abandoned wells, depending on the

  8. The affect heuristic, mortality salience, and risk: domain-specific effects of a natural disaster on risk-benefit perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Västfjäll, Daniel; Peters, Ellen; Slovic, Paul

    2014-12-01

    We examine how affect and accessible thoughts following a major natural disaster influence everyday risk perception. A survey was conducted in the months following the 2004 south Asian Tsunami in a representative sample of the Swedish population (N = 733). Respondents rated their experienced affect as well as the perceived risk and benefits of various everyday decision domains. Affect influenced risk and benefit perception in a way that could be predicted from both the affect-congruency and affect heuristic literatures (increased risk perception and stronger risk-benefit correlations). However, in some decision domains, self-regulation goals primed by the natural disaster predicted risk and benefit ratings. Together, these results show that affect, accessible thoughts and motivational states influence perceptions of risks and benefits. © 2014 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Effects of environmental risks and polygenic loading for schizophrenia on cortical thickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilson, Emma; Bois, Catherine; Gibson, Jude; Duff, Barbara; Watson, Andrew; Roberts, Neil; Brandon, Nicholas J; Dunlop, John; Hall, Jeremy; McIntosh, Andrew M; Whalley, Heather C; Lawrie, Stephen M

    2017-06-01

    There are established differences in cortical thickness (CT) in schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar (BD) patients when compared to healthy controls (HC). However, it is unknown to what extent environmental or genetic risk factors impact on CT in these populations. We have investigated the effect of Environmental Risk Scores (ERS) and Polygenic Risk Scores for SCZ (PGRS-SCZ) on CT. Structural MRI scans were acquired at 3T for patients with SCZ or BD (n=57) and controls (n=41). Cortical reconstructions were generated in FreeSurfer (v5.3). The ERS was created by determining exposure to cannabis use, childhood adverse events, migration, urbanicity and obstetric complications. The PGRS-SCZ were generated, for a subset of the sample (Patients=43, HC=32), based on the latest PGC GWAS findings. ANCOVAs were used to test the hypotheses that ERS and PGRS-SCZ relate to CT globally, and in frontal and temporal lobes. An increase in ERS was negatively associated with CT within temporal lobe for patients. A higher PGRS-SCZ was also related to global cortical thinning for patients. ERS effects remained significant when including PGRS-SCZ as a fixed effect. No relationship which survived FDR correction was found for ERS and PGRS-SCZ in controls. Environmental risk for SCZ was related to localised cortical thinning in patients with SCZ and BD, while increased PGRS-SCZ was associated with global cortical thinning. Genetic and environmental risk factors for SCZ appear therefore to have differential effects. This provides a mechanistic means by which different risk factors may contribute to the development of SCZ and BD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongel, Aybike; Sezgin, Fatih

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  11. The effect of aerobic exercise on some diabetic risk factors in obese ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Exercise has been shown to prevent and delay onset of diabetes. The purpose of the present study is to examine the effect of walking exercise in reducing some diabetic risk factors in sedentary obese women. Methods: Eighteen untrained obese (BMI>30) women aged 19-25 years volunteer took part in the ...

  12. Combined use of SSRIs and NSAIDs increases the risk of gastrointestinal adverse effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, J.C.F.; van den Berg, P.B; Tobi, H; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje Theodora Wilhelmina

    Aims To investigate the relationship between the use of antidepressants with or without NSAIDs and the risk of gastrointestinal side-effects. Methods This was a population-based cohort study. Medication data of 180 000 patients from 16 pharmacies in The Netherlands were studied. The subjects were a

  13. Cognitive Effects of Chess Instruction on Students at Risk for Academic Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Saahoon; Bart, William M.

    2007-01-01

    Cognitive effects of chess instruction on students at risk for academic failure was examined. Thirty-eight students, from three elementary schools, participated in this study. The experimental group received a ninety-minute chess lesson once per week over a three-month period; and the control group students regularly attended school activities…

  14. Adverse radiation effect after stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastases : incidence, time course, and risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sneed, Penny K.; Mendez, Joe; Vemer-van den Hoek, Johanna; Seymour, Zachary A.; Ma, Lijun; Molinaro, Annette M.; Fogh, Shannon E.; Nakamura, Jean L.; McDermott, Michael W.

    OBJECT The authors sought to determine the incidence, time course, and risk factors for overall adverse radiation effect (ARE) and symptomatic ARE after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. METHODS All cases of brain metastases treated from 1998 through 2009 with Gamma Knife SRS at

  15. Cost Effectiveness of Primary Pegfilgrastim Prophylaxis in Patients With Breast Cancer at Risk of Febrile Neutropenia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aarts, Maureen J.; Grutters, Janneke P.; Peters, Frank P.; Mandigers, Caroline M.; Dercksen, M. Wouter; Stouthard, Jacqueline M.; Nortier, Hans J.; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W.; van Warmerdam, Laurence J.; van de Wouw, Agnes J.; Jacobs, Esther M.; Mattijssen, Vera; van der Rijt, Carin C.; Smilde, Tineke J.; van der Velden, Annette W.; Temizkan, Mehmet; Batman, Erdogan; Muller, Erik W.; van Gastel, Saskia M.; Joore, Manuela A.; Borm, George F.; Tjan-Heijnen, Vivianne C.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Guidelines advise primary granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis during chemotherapy if risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) is more than 20%, but this comes with considerable costs. We investigated the incremental costs and effects between two treatment strategies of primary

  16. Cost effectiveness of primary pegfilgrastim prophylaxis in patients with breast cancer at risk of febrile neutropenia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aarts, M.J.; Grutters, J.P.C.; Peters, F.P.; Mandigers, C.M.P.W.; Dercksen, M.W.; Stouthard, J.M.; Nortier, H.J.; Laarhoven, H.W.M. van; Warmerdam, L.J. van; Wouw, A.J. van de; Jacobs, E.M.G.; Mattijssen, V.; Rijt, C.C. van der; Smilde, T.J.; Velden, A.W. van der; Temizkan, M.; Batman, E.; Muller, E.W.; Gastel, S.M. van; Joore, M.A.; Borm, G.F.; Tjan-Heijnen, V.C.

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSE: Guidelines advise primary granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis during chemotherapy if risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) is more than 20%, but this comes with considerable costs. We investigated the incremental costs and effects between two treatment strategies of primary

  17. Effects of Comprehensive, Multiple High-Risk Behaviors Prevention Program on High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Crystal

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the effect of a multiple high-risk behaviors prevention program applied comprehensively throughout an entire school-system involving universal, selective, and indicated levels of students at a local private high school during a 4-year period. The prevention program was created based upon the…

  18. Effect of an internally versus externally focused acl injury prevention program on injury risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dallinga, J.; Benjaminse, A.; Gokeler, A.; Otten, Egbert; Lemmink, K.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention programs have shown mixed results, which may be in part due to suboptimal training components. OBJECTIVE: Determine effects of a prevention program with external and internal focus of attention on (potential) biomechanical risk factors

  19. Does Asking Make a Difference? Effects of Initiator, Possible Gain, and Risk on Attributed Altruism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, Barbara; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Investigates three variables related to attributed altruism: (1) the effects of initiating prosocial behavior; (2) the potential gain or loss for the prosocial actor; and (3) the possible risk for the prosocial actor. Determines that any evidence of selfish motivation detracts from perceived altruism, and that no evidence of selfish motivation…

  20. The effect of target's physical attractiveness and dominance on STD-risk perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, P; Buunk, BP; Blanton, H

    Utilizing a 2 x 2 design, the present study examined the effect of a female's physical attractiveness and dominance on men's sexual motivation and sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk perceptions in a sample of 72 heterosexual male college students. As predicted, participants a ere more motivated

  1. Effect of vaccinations on seizure risk and disease course in Dravet syndrome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verbeek, N.E.; van der Maas, N.A.T.; Sonsma, A.C.M.; Ippel, E.; Bondt, P.E.V.D.; Hagebeuk, E.; Jansen, F.E.; Geesink, H.H.; Braun, K.P.; de Louw, A.; Augustijn, P.B.; Neuteboom, R.F.; Schieving, J.H.; Stroink, H.; Vermeulen, R.J.; Nicolai, J.; Brouwer, O.F.; van Kempen, M.; de Kovel, C.G.F.; Kemmeren, J.M.; Koeleman, B.P.C.; Knoers, N.V.; Lindhout, D.; Gunning, W.B.; Brilstra, E.H.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To study the effect of vaccination-associated seizure onset on disease course and estimate the risk of subsequent seizures after infant pertussis combination and measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccinations in Dravet syndrome (DS). Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from hospital

  2. Effects of Fear Appeals on Communicating Potential Health Risks of Unregulated Dietary Supplements to College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyang-Sook; Sheffield, Donna; Almutairi, Talal

    2014-01-01

    Background: Fear appeals are commonly used in health communication to reduce risk. It is not clear, however, whether familiarity with a health topic can lessen the threat intended. The use of unregulated dietary supplements among young adults is one such area that needs study. Purpose: The study examined the effect of fear appeals on…

  3. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  4. Lycopene intake and prostate cancer risk : Effect modification by plasma antioxidants and the XRCC1 genotype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goodman, Michael; Bostick, Roberd M.; Ward, Kevin C.; Terry, Paul D.; van Gils, Carla H.; Taylor, Jack A.; Mandel, Jack S.

    2006-01-01

    Lycopene has been associated with reduced prostate cancer risk, although the results ofepidemiological studies have varied We hypothesize that an effect of lycopene may be modified by XRCC1 genotype and other antioxidants. We used a food-frequency questionnaire to assess lycopene intake in a

  5. The Risk-Return Tradeoff and Leverage Effect in a Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Posedel, Petra

    We study the risk premium and leverage effect in the S&P500 market using the stochastic volatility-in-mean model of Barndor¤-Nielsen & Shephard (2001). The Merton (1973, 1980) equilibrium asset pricing condition linking the conditional mean and conditional variance of discrete time returns is rei...

  6. Effect of high-intensity interval and resistance training on cardiovascular risk factors in MS patients

    OpenAIRE

    Severijns, Tobias; Wijckmans, Ferdy

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the effect of high-intensity interval plus resistance training (HIITR) on cardiovascular risk factors was studied through a quasi-experimental study. Outcome measures are: endurance capacity, body composition, physical activity level, isometric muscle strength, oral glucose tolerance, blood lipids and lipoprotein - cholesterol.

  7. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

  8. Effect of surgery on cardiovascular risk factors in mild primary hyperparathyroidism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Jens; Rosen, Thord; Mollerup, Charlotte

    2009-01-01

    CONTEXT: Mild primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) seems to have a good prognosis, and indications for active treatment (surgery) are widely discussed. The extraskeletal effects of PTH, such as insulin resistance, arterial hypertension, and cardiovascular (CV) risk, may however be reversible...

  9. Individual and shared effects of social environment and polygenic risk scores on adolescent body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Jonathan R I; Krapohl, Eva; Eley, Thalia C; Breen, Gerome

    2018-04-20

    Juvenile obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes. Understanding genetic and environmental influences on body mass index (BMI) during adolescence could inform interventions. We investigated independent and interactive effects of parenting, socioeconomic status (SES) and polygenic risk on BMI pre-adolescence, and on the rate of change in BMI across adolescence. Genome-wide genotype data, BMI and child perceptions of parental warmth and punitive discipline were available at 11 years old, and parental SES was available from birth on 3,414 unrelated participants. Linear models were used to test the effects of social environment and polygenic risk on pre-adolescent BMI. Change in BMI across adolescence was assessed in a subset (N = 1943). Sex-specific effects were assessed. Higher genetic risk was associated with increased BMI pre-adolescence and across adolescence (p parenting was not significantly associated with either phenotype, but lower SES was associated with increased BMI pre-adolescence. No interactions passed correction for multiple testing. Polygenic risk scores from adult GWAS meta-analyses are associated with BMI in juveniles, suggesting a stable genetic component. Pre-adolescent BMI was associated with social environment, but parental style has, at most, a small effect.

  10. The effect of age of onset of PD on risk of dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarsland, Dag; Kvaløy, J.T.; Andersen, Kjeld

    2007-01-01

    followed prospectively for 3-4 years and assessed for dementia according to DSM-IIIR. All PD and control cases underwent neurological examination and were followed with neurological and neuropsychological assessments. We used Cox proportional hazards regression based on three different time scales...... to explore the effect of AAO of PD on risk of dementia, adjusting for age at baseline and other demographic and clinical variables. FINDINGS: In both PD groups and in the pooled analyses, there was a significant effect of age at baseline assessment on the time to develop dementia, but there was no effect...... AAO of PD symptoms is a risk factor for dementia independent of the general effect of age. METHODS: Two community-based studies of PD in New York (n=281) and Rogaland county, Norway (n=227) and two population-based groups of healthy elderly from New York (n=180) and Odense, Denmark (n=2414) were...

  11. Evidence Report: Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Zarana; Huff, Janice; Saha, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Blattnig, Steve; Wu, Honglu; Cucinotta, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Occupational radiation exposure from the space environment may result in non-cancer or non-CNS degenerative tissue diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, cataracts, and respiratory or digestive diseases. However, the magnitude of influence and mechanisms of action of radiation leading to these diseases are not well characterized. Radiation and synergistic effects of radiation cause DNA damage, persistent oxidative stress, chronic inflammation, and accelerated tissue aging and degeneration, which may lead to acute or chronic disease of susceptible organ tissues. In particular, cardiovascular pathologies such as atherosclerosis are of major concern following gamma-ray exposure. This provides evidence for possible degenerative tissue effects following exposures to ionizing radiation in the form of the GCR or SPEs expected during long-duration spaceflight. However, the existence of low dose thresholds and dose-rate and radiation quality effects, as well as mechanisms and major risk pathways, are not well-characterized. Degenerative disease risks are difficult to assess because multiple factors, including radiation, are believed to play a role in the etiology of the diseases. As additional evidence is pointing to lower, space-relevant thresholds for these degenerative effects, particularly for cardiovascular disease, additional research with cell and animal studies is required to quantify the magnitude of this risk, understand mechanisms, and determine if additional protection strategies are required.The NASA PEL (Permissive Exposure Limit)s for cataract and cardiovascular risks are based on existing human epidemiology data. Although animal and clinical astronaut data show a significant increase in cataracts following exposure and a reassessment of atomic bomb (A-bomb) data suggests an increase in cardiovascular disease from radiation exposure, additional research is required to fully understand and quantify these adverse outcomes at lower doses (less than 0.5 gray

  12. The effects of psychosis risk variants on brain connectivity: A Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar eMothersill

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In light of observed changes in connectivity in schizophrenia and the highly heritable nature of the disease, neural connectivity may serve as an important intermediate phenotype for schizophrenia. However, how individual variants confer altered connectivity and which measure of brain connectivity is more proximal to the underlying genetic architecture (i.e. functional or structural has not been well delineated. In this review we consider these issues and the relative sensitivity of imaging methodologies to schizophrenia-related changes in connectivity.We searched PubMed for studies considering schizophrenia risk genes AND functional or structural connectivity. Where data was available, summary statistics were used to determine an estimate of effect size (i.e. Cohen’s d. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to consider (1 the largest effect and (2 all significant effects between functional and structural studies. Schizophrenia risk variants involved in neurotransmission, neurodevelopment and myelin function were found to be associated with altered neural connectivity. On average, schizophrenia risk genes had a large effect on functional (mean d=0.76 and structural connectivity (mean d=1.04. The examination of the largest effect size indicated that the outcomes of functional and structural studies were comparable (Q=2.17, p>0.05. Conversely, consideration of effect size estimates for all significant effects suggest that reported effect sizes in structural connectivity studies were more variable than in functional connectivity studies, and that there was a significant lack of homogeneity across the modalities (Q=6.928, p=0.008.Given the more variable profile of effect sizes associated with structural connectivity, these data may suggest that structural imaging methods are more sensitive to a wider range of effects, as opposed to functional studies which may only be able to determine large effects. These conclusions are limited by

  13. Effects of Social Support Network Size on Mortality Risk: Considerations by Diabetes Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Ford, M Allison

    2018-05-01

    Previous work demonstrates that social support is inversely associated with mortality risk. Less research, however, has examined the effects of the size of the social support network on mortality risk among those with and without diabetes, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed through 2011. This study included 1,412 older adults (≥60 years of age) with diabetes and 5,872 older adults without diabetes. The size of the social support network was assessed via self-report and reported as the number of participants' close friends. Among those without diabetes, various levels of social support network size were inversely associated with mortality risk. However, among those with diabetes, only those with a high social support network size (i.e., at least six close friends) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. That is, compared to those with zero close friends, those with diabetes who had six or more close friends had a 49% reduced risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.94). To mitigate mortality risk, a greater social support network size may be needed for those with diabetes.

  14. An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

    2015-11-01

    Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

  15. The effect of graphics on environmental health risk beliefs, emotions, behavioral intentions, and recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severtson, Dolores J; Henriques, Jeffrey B

    2009-11-01

    Lay people have difficulty understanding the meaning of environmental health risk information. Visual images can use features that leverage visual perception capabilities and semiotic conventions to promote meaningful comprehension. Such evidence-based features were employed to develop two images of a color-coded visual scale to convey drinking water test results. The effect of these images and a typical alphanumeric (AN) lab report were explored in a repeated measures randomized trial among 261 undergraduates. Outcome measures included risk beliefs, emotions, personal safety threshold, mitigation intentions, the durability of beliefs and intentions over time, and test result recall. The plain image conveyed the strongest risk message overall, likely due to increased visual salience. The more detailed graded image conveyed a stronger message than the AN format only for females. Images only prompted meaningful risk reduction intentions among participants with optimistically biased safety threshold beliefs. Fuzzy trace theory supported some findings as follow. Images appeared to promote the consolidation of beliefs over time from an initial meaning of safety to an integrated meaning of safety and health risk; emotion potentially shaped this process. Although the AN report fostered more accurate recall, images were related to more appropriate beliefs and intentions at both time points. Findings hinted at the potential for images to prompt appropriate beliefs independent of accurate factual knowledge. Overall, results indicate that images facilitated meaningful comprehension of environmental health risk information and suggest foci for further research.

  16. Students’ perceived risk and investment intention: the effect of brand equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Washington Macías

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Emerging markets bring out the question of motivation to include of new investors in the market for financial securities often arises. The purpose of this study is to analyze how brands influence the investment intention of young potential investors. Specifically, the relationship between consumer based brand equity - according to Aaker’s multidimensional conceptualization - and investment intention, mediated by perceived risk, is analyzed. The study contributes to the literature in two ways: (1 based on the revision made, no study has analyzed Aaker’s brand equity construct in investment decisions; (2 studies linking brand aspects to investment decisions have not examined the mediating role of perceived risk. Through an experiment, where perceived risk and investment intention in a famous brand were measured as differences from fictitious brands, the following results were found: (1 the investment intention in a famous brand is higher than in a non-famous one, once controlled for risk and return; (2 the higher the brand equity, the lesser the perceived risk of investing in the famous brand, and the higher the investment intention; (3 the perceived quality of a brand’s products was the dimension by which the effect of brand equity is transmitted. Involvement with the investment task and cognitive ability, at an individual level, the relative size of comparable firms, and the risk and return of investment alternatives were introduced as control variables.

  17. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  18. [Scale effect of Li-Xiang Railway construction impact on landscape pattern and its ecological risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, De-zhi; Qiu, Peng-hua; Fang, Yuan-min

    2015-08-01

    As a large corridor project, plateau railway has multiple points and passes various sensitive environments along the railway. The determination of the scope of impact on ecological environment from railway construction is often controversial in ecological impact assessment work. Taking the Tangbu-Jiantang section of Li-Xiang Railway as study object, and using present land use map (1:10000) in 2012 and DEM as data sources, corridor cutting degree index ( CCI) and cumulative effect index of corridor (CCEI) were established by topology, buffer zone and landscape metrics methods. Besides, the ecological risk index used for railway construction was improved. By quantitative analysis of characteristics of the spatio-temporal change of landscape pattern and its evolution style at different spatial scales before and after railway construction, the most appropriate evaluation scale of the railway was obtained. Then the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variation of ecological risk within this scale before and after railway construction were analyzed. The results indicated that the cutting model and degree of railway corridor to various landscape types could be effectively reflected by CCI, and the exposure and harm relations between risk sources and risk receptors of railway can be measured by CCEI. After the railway construction, the railway corridor would cause a great deal of middle cutting effect on the landscape along the railroad, which would influence wood land and grassland landscape most greatly, while would cause less effect of edge cutting and internal cutting. Landscape indices within the 600 m buffer zone demonstrated the most obvious scale effect, therefore, the 600 m zone of the railway was set as the most suitable range of ecological impact assessment. Before railway construction, the low ecological risk level covered the biggest part of the 600 m assessment zone. However, after the railway construction, the ecological risk increased significantly, and

  19. Beneficial effects of recreational football on the cardiovascular risk profile in untrained premenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krustrup, Peter; Hansen, P. R.; Randers, Morten Bredsgaard

    2010-01-01

    The present study examined the cardiovascular health effects of 16 weeks of recreational football training in untrained premenopausal women in comparison with continuous running training. Fifty healthy women were matched and randomized to a football (FG, n=25) or a running (RG, n=25) group......, regular recreational football training has significant favorable effects on the cardiovascular risk profile in untrained premenopausal women and is at the least as efficient as continuous running....

  20. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  1. [The real-world effectiveness of personal protective equipment and additional risks for workers' health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denisov, É I; Morozova, T V; Adeninskaia, E E; Kur'erov, N N

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) of hearing, respiratory organs and hands is considered. It is shown that real effect of PPE is twice lower than declared by supplier; this presumes some derating system. The aspects of discomfort and additional risks are analyzed. The hygienic and physiologic evaluation of PPE is required along with elaboration of an official document (OSH standard or sanitary regulation) on selection, personal fit, organization of use and individual training of workers and their motivation.

  2. Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

    2015-03-01

    The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

  3. Cost effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs in geriatric outpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Nathalie; Meerding, Willen Jan; Looman, Caspar W; Pols, Huibert A P; van der Cammen, Tischa J M

    2008-01-01

    Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs has been proven to be effective in older persons. However, given the enormous rise in healthcare costs in recent decades, the effect of such withdrawals on healthcare costs also needs to be considered. Within a common geriatric outpatient population, patients with a history of falls were assessed for falls risk (n = 139). Fall-risk-increasing drugs were withdrawn when appropriate (n = 75). All participants had a 2-month follow-up for fall incidents. The number of prevented falls was calculated using a loglinear regression model. The savings on health expenditures as a result of prevented injuries (estimated from a literature review) and reduced consumption of pharmaceuticals were compared with the intervention costs. After adjustment for confounders, drug withdrawal resulted in a falls risk reduction of 0.89 (95% CI 0.33, 0.98) per patient compared with the non-withdrawal group. Net cost savings were euro1691 (95% CI 662, 2181) per patient in the cohort. This resulted in a cost saving of euro491 (95% CI 465, 497) per prevented fall. Withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs generates significant cost savings. Extrapolation of these findings to a national scale results in an estimated reduction of euro60 million in healthcare expenditures, that is, 15% of fall-related health costs.

  4. Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode

  5. Effects of tailored message education about breast cancer risk appraisal for obese Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Somi; Chung, ChaeWeon; Cochrane, Barbara B

    2013-11-01

    To examine the effects of tailored message education about breast cancer risk in obese Korean women. Pretest/post-test with two comparison treatments. Rural community settings in South Korea. Non-random sample of 64 obese women. Based on the Health Belief Model, tailored message education involved a one-session individual approach addressing cognitive, emotional, and behavioral domains. The comparison group received a one-time standard education group session. Data on breast cancer risk factors and mammography findings were recorded. Knowledge, awareness, emotional barriers, self-efficacy, and intent to screen and prevent breast cancer. Compared to standard education, tailored message education showed significantly higher score changes on awareness of personal risk (F = 5.21, p message education targeting breast cancer and risk associated with obesity is useful in breast cancer screening education. Future studies should incorporate individualized messages on nutrition, exercise, and cultural barriers to reduce breast cancer risk in obese women. Individual educational strategies can effectively enhance breast cancer prevention and early screening. Public and preventive education should include a focus on cultural, cognitive, and emotional domains. For obese women, a heightened awareness and self-efficacy may influence screening behaviors.

  6. Study on risk indicator for appropriate plant maintenance considering aging effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mano, Akihiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Takata, Takashi

    2014-01-01

    Since, nuclear power plants run for a long term and plant component may deteriorate due to aging, plant safety must be maintained through maintenance activities of components. The maintenance will become more important as the number of aged plant increases. In the planning of maintenance, one must select appropriate components and interval. In general, Fussell-Vesely importance (FV) and Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) are used as a risk indicator for the maintenance. A priority order of each component can be evaluated using those risk indicators at a certain condition. However, the influence of aging (time history) on the order cannot be estimated directly. In the paper, a change of conditional core damage probability (ΔCCDP) and a change of conditional containment failure probability (ΔCCFP) are proposed as additional indicators in which the aging effect is evaluated directly so as to determine the priority order. A simplified level one probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been carried out in order to investigate the change of the risk indicators by considering the change of a component failure probability due to aging. In the analyses, three conditions are assumed; base (original) state, aging state and further aging state without maintenance activities. It is demonstrated that the proposed indicator (ΔCCDP and ΔCCFP) reveals the aging effect of each component, while the change of the FV and RAW represent unrealistic behavior through the states. As a result, it is found that the ΔCCDP and ΔCCFP are superior to the others in terms of the ability to evaluate components appropriately in deteriorated (aging) states and take account of differences of deterioration behavior. It is also found that the priority order of the multiple-components maintenance at the same time can also be evaluated using the ΔCCDP and ΔCCFP. Additionally, a risk informed decision making based on the risk acceptance criteria can be discussed for the maintenance procedure using the

  7. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harry, T; Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  8. Effectiveness of 2-hour Troponin in High-risk Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bove, Joseph; Hochman, Steven; Miller, Jacob; Artim, Stephen

    2017-06-01

    Research has shown the safety and effectiveness of drawing a standard troponin level at presentation and again at 2 hours in only low-risk patients. Because high-sensitivity troponins are not currently approved in the United States, we studied the utility of a standard troponin that is presently in use. Our goal was to determine if 2-hour standard troponin would be safe and effective in the evaluation of a high-risk cohort of patients never studied previously. We conducted a single-center prospective observational study of adult patients presenting to the emergency department with signs and symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome. Patients were defined as high risk if the attending physician planned to admit or transfer the patient to the observation unit. History, Electrocardiography, Age, Risk factors, Troponin scores were calculated on all patients to provide verification that the individuals were high risk. The primary outcome was a composite of 30-day myocardial infarction, death, cardiac arrest with return of spontaneous circulation, or dysrhythmia. The secondary outcome was 30-day revascularization. We included a total of 122 patients with an average follow-up of 112 days (minimum 30 days). A total of 86% of cases had History, Electrocardiography, Age, Risk factors, Troponin scores ≥4. The primary outcome was met in 22 (18%) patients, and the secondary outcome occurred in 7 (5.7%) patients. The negative predictive value of negative 2-hour troponins along with no significant delta troponin rise was 98.7%. Discharging patients thought to be high risk who have negative troponins at 0 and 2 hours and no delta troponin rise appears safe. No deaths occurred in follow-up. Larger studies are warranted.

  9. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry, T [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States); University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  10. Motivational effects of methylphenidate are associated with GABRA2 variants conferring addiction risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodora eDuka

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Variations in the GABRA2 gene, encoding α2 subunits of GABAA receptors, have been associated with risk for addiction to several drugs, but the mechanisms by which variations in non-coding regions of GABRA2 increase risk for addictions are not understood. Mice with deletion of Gabra2 show deficits in the ability of psychostimulants to facilitate responding for conditioned reinforcers, offering a potential explanation. Methods: We report human and mouse studies investigating a potential endophenotype underlying this association. Healthy human volunteers carrying either cocaine-addiction risk or protective GABRA2 SNPs were tested for their subjective responses to methylphenidate, and methylphenidate’s ability to facilitate conditioned reinforcement (CRf for visual stimuli (CS+ associated with monetary reward. In parallel, methylphenidate’s ability to facilitate responding for a visual CRf was studied in wildtype and α2 knockout (α2-/- mice. Results: Methylphenidate increased the number of CS+ presentations obtained by human subjects carrying protective, but not risk SNPs. In mice, methylphenidate increased responding for a CS+ in wildtype, but not α2-/- mice. Human subjects carrying protective SNPs felt stimulated, aroused and restless following methylphenidate, while individuals carrying risk SNPs did not. Conclusion: Human risk SNP carriers were insensitive to methylphenidate’s effects on mood or in facilitating CRf. That mice with the gene deletion were also insensitive to methylphenidate’s ability to increase responding for CRf, suggests a potential mechanism whereby low α2-subunit levels increase risk for addictions. Circuits employing GABAA-α2 subunit-containing receptors may protect against risk for addictions.

  11. The Differential Effects of Eicosapentaenoic Acid and Docosahexaenoic Acid on Cardiometabolic Risk Factors: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Innes, Jacqueline K.; Calder, Philip C.

    2018-01-01

    A large body of evidence supports the cardioprotective effects of the long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). There is increasing interest in the independent effects of EPA and DHA in the modulation of cardiometabolic risk factors. This systematic review aims to appraise the latest available evidence of the differential effects of EPA and DHA on such risk factors. A systematic literature review was conducted up to May 2017. Randomised controlled trials were included if they met strict eligibility criteria, including EPA or DHA > 2 g/day and purity ≥ 90%. Eighteen identified articles were included, corresponding to six unique studies involving 527 participants. Both EPA and DHA lowered triglyceride concentration, with DHA having a greater triglyceride-lowering effect. Whilst total cholesterol levels were largely unchanged by EPA and DHA, DHA increased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol concentration, particularly HDL2, and increased low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol concentration and LDL particle size. Both EPA and DHA inhibited platelet activity, whilst DHA improved vascular function and lowered heart rate and blood pressure to a greater extent than EPA. The effects of EPA and DHA on inflammatory markers and glycaemic control were inconclusive; however both lowered oxidative stress. Thus, EPA and DHA appear to have differential effects on cardiometabolic risk factors, but these need to be confirmed by larger clinical studies. PMID:29425187

  12. A meta-analysis of predation risk effects on pollinator behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Q Romero

    Full Text Available Flower-visiting animals are constantly under predation risk when foraging and hence might be expected to evolve behavioural adaptations to avoid predators. We reviewed the available published and unpublished data to assess the overall effects of predators on pollinator behaviour and to examine sources of variation in these effects. The results of our meta-analysis showed that predation risk significantly decreased flower visitation rates (by 36% and time spent on flowers (by 51% by pollinators. The strength of the predator effects depended neither on predator taxa and foraging mode (sit-and-wait or active hunters nor on pollinator lifestyle (social vs. solitary. However, predator effects differed among pollinator taxa: predator presence reduced flower visitation rates and time spent on flowers by Squamata, Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera, but not by Diptera. Furthermore, larger pollinators showed weaker responses to predation risk, probably because they are more difficult to capture. Presence of live crab spiders on flowers had weaker effects on pollinator behaviour than presence of dead or artificial crab spiders or other objects (e.g. dead bees, spheres, suggesting that predator crypsis may be effective to some extent. These results add to a growing consensus on the importance of considering both predator and pollinator characteristics from a community perspective.

  13. A meta-analysis of predation risk effects on pollinator behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Gustavo Q; Antiqueira, Pablo A P; Koricheva, Julia

    2011-01-01

    Flower-visiting animals are constantly under predation risk when foraging and hence might be expected to evolve behavioural adaptations to avoid predators. We reviewed the available published and unpublished data to assess the overall effects of predators on pollinator behaviour and to examine sources of variation in these effects. The results of our meta-analysis showed that predation risk significantly decreased flower visitation rates (by 36%) and time spent on flowers (by 51%) by pollinators. The strength of the predator effects depended neither on predator taxa and foraging mode (sit-and-wait or active hunters) nor on pollinator lifestyle (social vs. solitary). However, predator effects differed among pollinator taxa: predator presence reduced flower visitation rates and time spent on flowers by Squamata, Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera, but not by Diptera. Furthermore, larger pollinators showed weaker responses to predation risk, probably because they are more difficult to capture. Presence of live crab spiders on flowers had weaker effects on pollinator behaviour than presence of dead or artificial crab spiders or other objects (e.g. dead bees, spheres), suggesting that predator crypsis may be effective to some extent. These results add to a growing consensus on the importance of considering both predator and pollinator characteristics from a community perspective.

  14. The Cost-Effectiveness of High-Risk Lung Cancer Screening and Drivers of Program Efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressman, Sonya; Peacock, Stuart J; Tammemägi, Martin C; Evans, William K; Leighl, Natasha B; Goffin, John R; Tremblay, Alain; Liu, Geoffrey; Manos, Daria; MacEachern, Paul; Bhatia, Rick; Puksa, Serge; Nicholas, Garth; McWilliams, Annette; Mayo, John R; Yee, John; English, John C; Pataky, Reka; McPherson, Emily; Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder; Johnston, Michael R; Schmidt, Heidi; Shepherd, Frances A; Soghrati, Kam; Amjadi, Kayvan; Burrowes, Paul; Couture, Christian; Sekhon, Harmanjatinder S; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Goss, Glenwood; Ionescu, Diana N; Hwang, David M; Martel, Simon; Sin, Don D; Tan, Wan C; Urbanski, Stefan; Xu, Zhaolin; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen

    2017-08-01

    Lung cancer risk prediction models have the potential to make programs more affordable; however, the economic evidence is limited. Participants in the National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST) were retrospectively identified with the risk prediction tool developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. The high-risk subgroup was assessed for lung cancer incidence and demographic characteristics compared with those in the low-risk subgroup and the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan), which is an observational study that was high-risk-selected in Canada. A comparison of high-risk screening versus standard care was made with a decision-analytic model using data from the NLST with Canadian cost data from screening and treatment in the PanCan study. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess uncertainty and identify drivers of program efficiency. Use of the risk prediction tool developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial with a threshold set at 2% over 6 years would have reduced the number of individuals who needed to be screened in the NLST by 81%. High-risk screening participants in the NLST had more adverse demographic characteristics than their counterparts in the PanCan study. High-risk screening would cost $20,724 (in 2015 Canadian dollars) per quality-adjusted life-year gained and would be considered cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 in Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained with a probability of 0.62. Cost-effectiveness was driven primarily by non-lung cancer outcomes. Higher noncurative drug costs or current costs for immunotherapy and targeted therapies in the United States would render lung cancer screening a cost-saving intervention. Non-lung cancer outcomes drive screening efficiency in diverse, tobacco-exposed populations. Use of risk selection can reduce the budget impact, and

  15. A technique of including the effect of aging of passive components in probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.H.; Weidenhamer, G.H.

    1992-01-01

    The probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) being developed at most nuclear power plants to calculate the risk of core damage generally focus on the possible failure of active components. The possible failure of passive components is given little consideration. We are developing methods for selecting risk-significant passive components and including them in PRAS. These methods provide effective ways to prioritize passive components for inspection, and where inspection reveals aging damage, mitigation or repair can be employed to reduce the likelihood of component failure. We demonstrated a method by selecting a weld in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system, basing our selection on expert judgement of the likelihood of failure and on an estimate of the consequence of component failure to plant safety. We then modified and used the Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code to perform a probabilistic structural analysis to calculate the probability that crack growth due to aging would cause the weld to fail. The PRAISE code was modified to include the effects of changing design material properties with age and changing stress cycles. The calculation included the effects of mechanical loads and thermal transients typical of the service loads for this piping design and the effects of thermal cycling caused by a leaking check valve. However, this particular calculation showed little change in low component failure probability and plant risk for 48 years of service. However, sensitivity studies showed that if the probability of component failure is high, the effect on plant risk is significant. The success of this demonstration shows that this method could be applied to nuclear power plants. The demonstration showed the method is too involved (PRAISE takes a long time to perform the calculation and the input information is extensive) for handling a large number of passive components and therefore simpler methods are needed

  16. Clarifying the paradigm on radiator effects and safety management: unscear report on attribution on effects and inference of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzaelez, Abel J.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe a relatively recent international agreement on the widely debated concepts of: (i) attributing effects to low dose radiation exposure situations that have occurred in the past and, (ii) inferring radiation risk to situations that are planned to occur in the future. An important global consensus has been recently achieved on these fundamental issues at the level of the highest international intergovernmental body: the General Assembly of the United Nations. The General Assembly has welcomed with appreciation a scientific report on attributing health effects to radiation exposure and inferring risks that had been prepared the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) following a formal request by the General Assembly.

  17. Cost-effectiveness of newborn circumcision in reducing lifetime HIV risk among U.S. males.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie L Sansom

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV incidence was substantially lower among circumcised versus uncircumcised heterosexual African men in three clinical trials. Based on those findings, we modeled the potential effect of newborn male circumcision on a U.S. male's lifetime risk of HIV, including associated costs and quality-adjusted life-years saved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given published estimates of U.S. males' lifetime HIV risk, we calculated the fraction of lifetime risk attributable to heterosexual behavior from 2005-2006 HIV surveillance data. We assumed 60% efficacy of circumcision in reducing heterosexually-acquired HIV over a lifetime, and varied efficacy in sensitivity analyses. We calculated differences in lifetime HIV risk, expected HIV treatment costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs among circumcised versus uncircumcised males. The main outcome measure was cost per HIV-related QALY saved. Circumcision reduced the lifetime HIV risk among all males by 15.7% in the base case analysis, ranging from 7.9% for white males to 20.9% for black males. Newborn circumcision was a cost-saving HIV prevention intervention for all, black and Hispanic males. The net cost of newborn circumcision per QALY saved was $87,792 for white males. Results were most sensitive to the discount rate, and circumcision efficacy and cost. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Newborn circumcision resulted in lower expected HIV-related treatment costs and a slight increase in QALYs. It reduced the 1.87% lifetime risk of HIV among all males by about 16%. The effect varied substantially by race and ethnicity. Racial and ethnic groups who could benefit the most from circumcision may have least access to it due to insurance coverage and state Medicaid policies, and these financial barriers should be addressed. More data on the long-term protective effect of circumcision on heterosexual males as well as on its efficacy in preventing HIV among MSM would be useful.

  18. EFFECTS OF A TRANSIENT CANCER SCARE ON PROPERTY VALUES: IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK VALUATION AND THE VALUE OF LIFE. (R825173)

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbstractA transient cancer scare is presented as a rare opportunity to observe the effect of a perceived increase in risk on the price of residential property. The temporary nature of the perceived excess risk allows for the isolation of a risk premium from the change...

  19. Effect of elevated levels of coagulation factors on the risk of venous thrombosis in long-distance travelers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C.; Doggen, Catharina Jacoba Maria; Rosendaal, Frits R.

    2009-01-01

    Risk of venous thrombosis is increased after long-distance travel. Identifying high-risk groups may provide a basis for targeted prevention. We assessed the effect of increased levels of coagulation factors and combinations of risk factors in travelers in a large case-control study. We calculated

  20. Cyberfraud and the implications for effective risk-based responses: themes from UK research

    OpenAIRE

    Levi, Michael; Doig, Alan; Gundur, Rajeev; Wall, David; Williams, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    The nature of the risk or threat posed by ‘cyberfraud’ - fraud with a cyber dimension – is examined empirically based on data reported by the public and business to Action Fraud. These are used to examine the implications for a more effective risk-based response, both by category of fraud and also responding to cyberfraud generally, not just in the UK. A key characteristics of cyberfraud is that it can be globalised, unless there are major national differences in attractiveness of targets or ...

  1. The effects of marriage partners' socio-economic positions on the risk of divorce in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marika Jalovaara

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The high and increasing incidence of divorce, with the various consequences for adults and children, has aroused interest among social scientists in understanding the contributory factors. Prominent economic and psychosocial theories suggest that the husband’s social and economic resources tend to stabilize a marriage, whereas the wife’s economic success tends to destabilize it (the gendered hypothesis. Register-based follow-up data from Statistics Finland on first marriages in Finland that were intact at the end of 1990 and divorces in 199193 (n=21,309, and Poisson regression were used to analyze the impact of the socio-economic positions of the spouses on the risk of divorce. This thesis consists of three articles published in international refereed journals, and a summary article. The aim of sub-study I was to disentangle the influences of various aspects of the spouses’ socio-economic positions on divorce risk and to reveal the causal pathways through which each socio-economic factor was related to it. Sub-study II investigated the joint effects of both spouses’ socio-economic positions. Finally, sub-study III explored the possibility that the effect of spouses’ socio-economic positions on divorce risk might vary according to the duration of the marriage.  When examined individually, divorce risk was inversely associated with socio-economic status for all its various indicators (i.e. each spouse’s education, occupational class, economic activity, and income, as well as housing tenure and housing density except the wife’s income. All of these factors had an independent effect. The independent effect was weak for both spouses’ occupational rankings and housing density, however, and it was positive for the wife’s income. The divorce risk for couples with both partners at the lowest educational level was lower than expected on the basis of its overall inverse association with each spouse’s education. Employed and

  2. Bevacizumab in Treatment of High-Risk Ovarian Cancer—A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Thomas J.; Hu, Lilian; Monk, Bradley J.; Kiet, Tuyen; Blansit, Kevin; Kapp, Daniel S.; Yu, Xinhua

    2014-01-01

    Objective. The objective of this study was to evaluate a cost-effectiveness strategy of bevacizumab in a subset of high-risk advanced ovarian cancer patients with survival benefit. Methods. A subset analysis of the International Collaboration on Ovarian Neoplasms 7 trial showed that additions of bevacizumab (B) and maintenance bevacizumab (mB) to paclitaxel (P) and carboplatin (C) improved the overall survival (OS) of high-risk advanced cancer patients. Actual and estimated costs of treatment were determined from Medicare payment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per life-year saved was established. Results. The estimated cost of PC is $535 per cycle; PCB + mB (7.5 mg/kg) is $3,760 per cycle for the first 6 cycles and then $3,225 per cycle for 12 mB cycles. Of 465 high-risk stage IIIC (>1 cm residual) or stage IV patients, the previously reported OS after PC was 28.8 months versus 36.6 months in those who underwent PCB + mB. With an estimated 8-month improvement in OS, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of B was $167,771 per life-year saved. Conclusion. In this clinically relevant subset of women with high-risk advanced ovarian cancer with overall survival benefit after bevacizumab, our economic model suggests that the incremental cost of bevacizumab was approximately $170,000. PMID:24721817

  3. Mechanistic effect modeling for ecological risk assessment: where to go from here?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Martin, Benjamin T

    2013-07-01

    Mechanistic effect models (MEMs) consider the mechanisms of how chemicals affect individuals and ecological systems such as populations and communities. There is an increasing awareness that MEMs have high potential to make risk assessment of chemicals more ecologically relevant than current standard practice. Here we discuss what kinds of MEMs are needed to improve scientific and regulatory aspects of risk assessment. To make valid predictions for a wide range of environmental conditions, MEMs need to include a sufficient amount of emergence, for example, population dynamics emerging from what individual organisms do. We present 1 example where the life cycle of individuals is described using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The resulting individual-based population model is thus parameterized at the individual level but correctly predicts multiple patterns at the population level. This is the case for both control and treated populations. We conclude that the state-of-the-art in mechanistic effect modeling has reached a level where MEMs are robust and predictive enough to be used in regulatory risk assessment. Mechanistic effect models will thus be used to advance the scientific basis of current standard practice and will, if their development follows Good Modeling Practice, be included in a standardized way in future regulatory risk assessments. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  4. Biological effects of 224Ra. Benefit and risk of therapeutic application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.A.; Ebert, H.G.

    1978-01-01

    The Second Symposium on the Biological effects of 224 Ra, held at Neuherberg, was focused on two topical aspects of radiation protection. One aspect was the long-term effects of high-LET ionizing radiations on man and the quantitative data involved in risk assessment at low doses. The evaluation of epidemiological studies and experimental research was discussed in order to provide facts and figures contributing to an objective assessment of the radiation hazard from incorporated radionuclides. The other aspect was that of radiation protection in medicine. In the case of 224 Ra treatment of ankylosing spondylitis the questions of benefit and risk of this therapeutic use of ionizing radiations were discussed, the aim being to achieve the therapeutic effect while reducing radiation exposure - and therefore the hazard - to a minimum. The proceedings contain the complete texts of 23 papers as well as the final round table discussions

  5. Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2012-01-01

    A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness

  6. The (Null) Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Lina; Andersson, David; Morrison, India; Västfjäll, Daniel; Tinghög, Gustav

    2017-01-01

    Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants ( n = 120) were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition) or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects), while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task), altruism (donating money to a charitable organization), and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task). We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch-and, by extension, oxytocin-in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

  7. The (Null Effect of Affective Touch on Betrayal Aversion, Altruism, and Risk Taking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Koppel

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Pleasant touch is thought to increase the release of oxytocin. Oxytocin, in turn, has been extensively studied with regards to its effects on trust and prosocial behavior, but results remain inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of touch on economic decision making. Participants (n = 120 were stroked on their left arm using a soft brush (touch condition or not at all (control condition; varied within subjects, while they performed a series of decision tasks assessing betrayal aversion (the Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task, altruism (donating money to a charitable organization, and risk taking (the Balloon Analog Risk Task. We found no significant effect of touch on any of the outcome measures, neither within nor between subjects. Furthermore, effects were not moderated by gender or attachment. However, attachment avoidance had a significant effect on altruism in that those who were high in avoidance donated less money. Our findings contribute to the understanding of affective touch—and, by extension, oxytocin—in social behavior, and decision making by showing that touch does not directly influence performance in tasks involving risk and prosocial decisions. Specifically, our work casts further doubt on the validity of oxytocin research in humans.

  8. Individual and combined effects of maternal anemia and prenatal infection on risk for schizophrenia in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Philip R; Meyer, Urs; Mortensen, Preben B

    2016-04-01

    Maternal iron deficiency and infection during pregnancy have individually been associated with increased risk of schizophrenia in the offspring, but possible interactions between the two remain unidentified thus far. Therefore, we determined the individual and combined effects of maternal infection during pregnancy and prepartum anemia on schizophrenia risk in the offspring. We conducted a population-based study with individual record linkage of the Danish Civil Registration System, the Danish Hospital Register, and the Central Danish Psychiatric Register. In a cohort of Danish singleton births 1,403,183 born between 1977 and 2002, 6729 developed schizophrenia between 1987 and 2012. Cohort members were considered as having a maternal history of anemia if the mother had received a diagnosis of anemia at any time during the pregnancy. Maternal infection was defined based on infections requiring hospital admission during pregnancy. Maternal anemia and infection were both associated with increased risk of schizophrenia in unadjusted analyses (1.45-fold increase for anemia, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82; 1.32-fold increase for infection, 95% CI: 1.17-1.48). The effect of maternal infection remained significant (1.16-fold increase, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31) after adjustment for possible confounding factors. Combined exposure to anemia and an infection increased the effect size to a 2.49-fold increased schizophrenia risk (95% CI: 1.29-4.27). The interaction analysis, however, failed to provide evidence for multiplicative interactions between the two factors. Our findings indicate that maternal anemia and infection have additive but not interactive effects, and therefore, they may represent two independent risk factors of schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Selection and Mode Effects in Risk Preference Elicitation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin; van Soest, Arthur; Wengström, Erik Roland

    2008-01-01

    experiment is drastically below that of the representative sample in the Internet experiment, and average risk aversion is also lower. Considering the student-like subsample of the Internet subjects and comparing a traditional lab design with an Internet-like design in the lab gives two ways to decompose......We combine data from a risk preference elicitation experiment conducted on a representative sample via the Internet with laboratory data on students for the same experiment to investigate effects of implementation mode and of subject pool selection. We find that the frequency of errors in the lab...... shows that these processes are selective in selecting subjects who make fewer errors, but do not lead to biased conclusions on risk preferences. These findings point at the usefulness of the Internet survey as an alternative to a student pool in the laboratory if the ambition is to use the experiments...

  10. Application of the Risk Map for Assessment Destructive Effects of Essential Environment on the Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladlena Sergeevna Atkina

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of the business continuity as a necessary element of the strategy of information security. The analysis of the requirements of federal legislation, standards, recommendations and guidelines to ensure the availability, disaster recovery, and recovery of data and information structures of organizations in their operation was conducted. The proposed approach to assessing the possible destabilizing factors and emergency situations includes the model of the environment where the information systems are operational processing key business processes of the organization, and the method for risk assessment to each of the destabilizing effects. Technique of risk assessment expects to use quantitative and qualitative approach to drawing three zone risk maps.

  11. Social signals of safety and risk confer utility and have asymmetric effects on observers' choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Dongil; Christopoulos, George I; King-Casas, Brooks; Ball, Sheryl B; Chiu, Pearl H

    2015-06-01

    Individuals' risk attitudes are known to guide choices about uncertain options. However, in the presence of others' decisions, these choices can be swayed and manifest as riskier or safer behavior than one would express alone. To test the mechanisms underlying effective social 'nudges' in human decision-making, we used functional neuroimaging and a task in which participants made choices about gambles alone and after observing others' selections. Against three alternative explanations, we found that observing others' choices of gambles increased the subjective value (utility) of those gambles for the observer. This 'other-conferred utility' was encoded in ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and these neural signals predicted conformity. We further identified a parametric interaction with individual risk preferences in anterior cingulate cortex and insula. These data provide a neuromechanistic account of how information from others is integrated with individual preferences that may explain preference-congruent susceptibility to social signals of safety and risk.

  12. Social signals of safety and risk confer utility and have asymmetric effects on observers’ choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Dongil; Ball, Sheryl B; Chiu, Pearl H

    2015-01-01

    Individuals’ risk attitudes are known to guide choices about uncertain options. However, in the presence of others’ decisions, these choices can be swayed and manifest as riskier or safer behavior than one would express alone. To test the mechanisms underlying effective social ‘nudges’ in human decision-making, we used functional neuroimaging and a task in which participants made choices about gambles alone and after observing others’ selections. Against three alternative explanations, we found that observing others’ choices of gambles increased the subjective value (utility) of those gambles for the observer. This ‘other-conferred utility’ was encoded in ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and these neural signals predicted conformity. We further identified a parametric interaction with individual risk preferences in anterior cingulate cortex and insula. These data provide a neuromechanistic account of how information from others is integrated with individual preferences that may explain preference-congruent susceptibility to social signals of safety and risk. PMID:25984890

  13. Effect of weight loss on the cardiovascular risk profile of obese patients with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Peter; Zachariae, Claus; Christensen, Robin

    2014-01-01

    Psoriasis is associated with obesity and other cardiovascular risk factors including endothelial dysfunction. We aimed to investigate the effects of weight loss on the cardiovascular risk profile of obese patients with psoriasis. A randomised controlled study was conducted in which we measured...... the microvascular endothelial function with peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT), selected plasma markers of endothelial function, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors in 60 obese patients with psoriasis. The participants were randomised to either low-energy diet (n = 30) providing 800-1,000 kcal/day for 8...... weeks followed by 8 weeks of reduced food intake reaching 1,200 kcal/day or normal healthy foods (n = 30) for 16 weeks. The intervention group lost significantly more weight than controls, which resulted in significant reductions of diastolic blood pressure, resting heart rate, total cholesterol, VLDL...

  14. GLOBALISATION EFFECTS UPON THE ECONOMY IN TERMS OF RISK AND INCERTITUDE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA NITESCU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Globalisation effects upon the economy in terms of risk and incertitude. Globalization represents the process of mutual integration among the worldwide countries which leads, on one hand, to significant cost reducing of transport and communications and, on the other hand, it generates artificial barriers which can block the circulation of goods, services, capital, knowledge and in a smaller measures people. However, under the circumstance of risk and incertitude a substantiate decision requires strong knowledge and in due time of two ways, internal and external, where the trade agents carry out their activity as well as the rationalization of actions and human decisions which consist not only of prevention and avoiding the risks and their consequences but also the reducing the uncertainty and the misjudgment at the acceptable levels in the given situations.

  15. Effective risk stratification in patients with moderate cardiovascular risk using albuminuria and atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Sehestedt, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    , Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at least 12 m/s, and carotid atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg...... risk patients and high-intermediate FRS risk patients with high risk (P = 0.04 and P = 0.001, respectively), whereas elevated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity did not. Elevated UACR or presence of atherosclerotic plaques reclassified patients from moderate to high SCORE risk [net reclassification...... improvement of 6.4%; P = 0.025), or from high intermediate to high FRS risk (net reclassification improvement 8.8%; P = 0.002). Assuming primary prevention could reduce the relative cardiovascular risk by 24-27%, on the basis of actual levels of blood pressure and cholesterol, one composite endpoint could...

  16. Endocrine effects of chemicals: aspects of hazard identification and human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Colnot, Thomas

    2013-12-16

    Hazard and risk assessment of chemicals with endocrine activity is hotly debated due to claimed non-monotonous dose-response curves in the low-dose region. In hazard identification a clear definition of "endocrine disruptors" (EDs) is required; this should be based on the WHO/IPCS definition of EDs and on adverse effects demonstrated in intact animals or humans. Therefore, endocrine effects are a mode of action potentially resulting in adverse effects; any classification should not be based on a mode of action, but on adverse effects. In addition, when relying on adverse effects, most effects reported in the low-dose region will not qualify for hazard identification since most have little relation to an adverse effect. Non-monotonous dose-response curves that had been postulated from limited, exploratory studies could also not be reproduced in targeted studies with elaborate quality assurance. Therefore, regulatory agencies or advisory bodies continue to apply the safety-factor method or the concept of "margin-of-exposure" based on no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) in the risk assessment of chemicals with weak hormonal activity. Consistent with this approach, tolerable levels regarding human exposure have been defined for such chemicals. To conclusively support non-monotonous dose-response curves, targeted experiments with a sufficient number of animals, determination of adverse endpoints, adequate statistics and quality control would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The effects of napping on the risk of hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Thongprayoon, Charat; Srivali, Narat; Vijayvargiya, Priya; Andersen, Carl A; Kittanamongkolchai, Wonngarm; Sathick, Insara J Jaffer; Caples, Sean M; Erickson, Stephen B

    2016-11-01

    The risk of hypertension in adults who regularly take a nap is controversial. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the associations between napping and hypertension. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMbase and The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through October, 2015. Studies that reported relative risks, odd ratios or hazard ratios comparing the risk of hypertension in individuals who regularly take nap were included. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Nine observational studies with 112,267 individuals were included in the analysis to assess the risk of hypertension in nappers. The pooled RR of hypertension in nappers was 1.13 with 95% CI (0.98 to 1.30). When meta-analysis was limited only to studies assessing the risk of hypertension in daytime nappers, the pooled RR of hypertension was 1.19 with 95% CI (1.06 to 1.35). The data on association between nighttime napping in individuals who work night shift and hypertension were limited, only one observational study reported reduced risk of hypertension in nighttime nappers with odds ratio of 0.79 with 95% CI (0.63 to 1.00). Our meta-analysis demonstrates a significant association between daytime napping and hypertension. Future study is needed to assess the potential benefits of HTN screening for daytime nappers. © 2016 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  18. Effect of dietary habits on the risk of metabolic syndrome: Yazd Healthy Heart Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarebanhassanabadi, Mohammadtaghi; Mirhosseini, Seyed Jalil; Mirzaei, Masoud; Namayandeh, Seyedeh Mahdieh; Soltani, Mohammad Hossein; Pakseresht, Mohammadreza; Pedarzadeh, Ali; Baramesipour, Zahra; Faraji, Reza; Salehi-Abargouei, Amin

    2018-04-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) refers to a group of risk factors that increase the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Dietary habits are among the most important risk factors for MetS. The current study aimed at assessing the effect of dietary habits on the risk of MetS in a 10-year follow-up study in central Iran. Cohort study. Yazd, Iran. Participants aged 20-74 years without any history of MetS, who were originally recruited for Yazd Healthy Heart Project (YHHP) during 2005-2006, were revisited during 2015-2016. At phase I of YHHP, demographic data, anthropometric measurements, five components of MetS, biochemical tests and dietary habits were evaluated; and the same data were collected in phase II. A total of 1092 participants were eligible to be included in the present study. After follow-up, the 10-year cumulative incidence of MetS was 56·1 %. After adjustment for potential confounders, increased risk of MetS (hazard ratio; 95 % CI) was found in those who did not try to control their body weight (1·57; 1·06, 2·35), did not usually eat salad (1·91; 1·22, 3·00) and added salt to their food (1·57, 1·06, 2·33). These associations were stronger in men than in the total population after subgroup analysis, but were not present in women. Dietary habits affect the risk of MetS in the Iranian population. Lifestyle interventions are needed to improve dietary habits to reduce the risk of MetS. Future studies are highly recommended to confirm our results in other populations.

  19. Fine-mapping the effects of Alzheimer's disease risk loci on brain morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshchupkin, Gennady V; Adams, Hieab H; van der Lee, Sven J; Vernooij, Meike W; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Uitterlinden, Andre G; van der Lugt, Aad; Hofman, Albert; Niessen, Wiro J; Ikram, Mohammad A

    2016-12-01

    The neural substrate of genetic risk variants for Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains unknown. We studied their effect on healthy brain morphology to provide insight into disease etiology in the preclinical phase. We included 4071 nondemented, elderly participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging and genotyping. We performed voxel-based morphometry (VBM) on all gray-matter voxels for 19 previously identified, common AD risk variants. Whole-brain expression data from the Allen Human Brain Atlas was used to examine spatial overlap between VBM association results and expression of genes in AD risk loci regions. Brain regions most significantly associated with AD risk variants were the left postcentral gyrus with ABCA7 (rs4147929, p = 4.45 × 10 -6 ), right superior frontal gyrus by ZCWPW1 (rs1476679, p = 5.12 × 10 -6 ), and right postcentral gyrus by APOE (p = 6.91 × 10 -6 ). Although no individual voxel passed multiple-testing correction, we found significant spatial overlap between the effects of AD risk loci on VBM and the expression of genes (MEF2C, CLU, and SLC24A4) in the Allen Brain Atlas. Results are available online on www.imagene.nl/ADSNPs/. In this single largest imaging genetics data set worldwide, we found that AD risk loci affect cortical gray matter in several brain regions known to be involved in AD, as well as regions that have not been implicated before. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Age and Social Context Modulate the Effect of Anxiety on Risk-taking in Pediatric Samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Dana; Patel, Nilam; Pavletic, Nevia; Grillon, Christian; Pine, Daniel S; Ernst, Monique

    2016-08-01

    Although risk-taking has been studied from a developmental perspective, no study has examined how anxiety, age, risk-valence and social context interact to modulate decision-making in youths. This study probes this question using a risk-taking task, the Stunt Task, in clinically anxious children (n = 17, 10 F, age = 8.3-12.1 years), healthy children (n = 13, 4 F, age = 9.3-12.2 years), clinically anxious adolescents (n = 18, 6 F, age = 12.3-17.7 years), and healthy adolescents (n =14, 10 F, age = 12.5-17.3 years). Social context was manipulated: in one condition, participants were led to believe that a group of peers were observing and judging their performance (peer-judge), while, in the other condition, they were led to believe that peers were not observing them (control). Only anxious children showed an influence of social context on their risk-taking behavior. Specifically, anxious children bet significantly less and had slower reaction times (RT) during the peer-judge than control condition. However, across social conditions, risk-valence modulated RT differently in function of age and diagnosis. Anxious children were slower on the positive-valence risky trial, whereas anxious adolescents were slower on the negative-valence risky trials relative to their respective healthy peers. In conclusion, clinically anxious children were the only group that was sensitive (risk-averse) to the effect of a negative peer-judge context. The negative peer-judge context did not affect risky decision-making in adolescents, whether they were anxious or healthy. Future work using a stronger aversive social context might be more effective at influencing risky behavior in this age group.

  1. Lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - additive or multiplicative effect?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasek, L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the work is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer when combined radon and smoking exposure. Methodologically the evaluation is based on case and control study nested in two cohort studies, including 11,000 miners and 12,000 residents exposed to high concentrations of radon in homes. Radon exposure in individuals is complemented by information on smoking gained personally from them or from their relatives. The study is based on 1,073 cases of lung cancer among miners and 372 cases in population study. Control subjects were randomly selected in each study based on gender, year of birth and age achieved. The combined effect of smoking and radon is evaluated using the so-called geometric mixed models, whose special case is an additive or multiplicative model. The resulting model of the risk is closer to additive interaction (parameter of mixed model 0.2). The consequences of the model in the study of population are illustrated by estimates of lifetime risk in a hypothetical population of smokers and nonsmokers. Compared to the multiplicative risk model, the lifetime risk significantly increased according to the best geometric mixed model, especially in the population of non-smokers. (author)

  2. Effects of incorporating environmental cost and risk aversion on economic values of pig breeding goal traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, B M; de Mey, Y; Bastiaansen, J W M; Oude Lansink, A G J M

    2018-06-01

    Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean-variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk-neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  3. Risk management for outsourcing biomedical waste disposal - using the failure mode and effects analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Ching-Jong; Ho, Chao Chung

    2014-07-01

    Using the failure mode and effects analysis, this study examined biomedical waste companies through risk assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the supervisors of biomedical waste units in hospitals, and factors relating to the outsourcing risk assessment of biomedical waste in hospitals by referring to waste disposal acts. An expert questionnaire survey was conducted on the personnel involved in waste disposal units in hospitals, in order to identify important factors relating to the outsourcing risk of biomedical waste in hospitals. This study calculated the risk priority number (RPN) and selected items with an RPN value higher than 80 for improvement. These items included "availability of freezing devices", "availability of containers for sharp items", "disposal frequency", "disposal volume", "disposal method", "vehicles meeting the regulations", and "declaration of three lists". This study also aimed to identify important selection factors of biomedical waste disposal companies by hospitals in terms of risk. These findings can serve as references for hospitals in the selection of outsourcing companies for biomedical waste disposal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Effect of cat and daycare exposures on the risk of asthma in children with atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffin, Jonathan M; Spergel, Jonathan M; Boguniewicz, Mark; Eichenfield, Lawrence F; Paller, Amy S; Fowler, Joseph F; Dinulos, James G; Tilles, Stephen A; Schneider, Lynda C; Phipatanakul, Wanda

    2012-01-01

    Atopic dermatitis (AD) in young children is often followed by the development of asthma (atopic march). The role of environmental exposures is unclear in this high-risk population. We aimed to determine the predictive relationship between indoor allergen exposures, particularly pets, rodents, and cockroaches, to the development of asthma in a prospective pediatric cohort. Children with AD and a family history of allergy were followed prospectively with questionnaire ascertainment of environmental exposure to cats, dogs, cockroaches, rats, and mice. Asthma was diagnosed by study physicians based on caregiver reports of symptoms continually assessed over the course of the study period. Fifty-five of the 299 children developed asthma by the end of the study. Cat exposure had a strong and independent effect to reduce the risk of developing asthma across all analyses (odds ratio [OR], 0.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05-0.53). Dog, mouse, rat, and cockroach exposures did not significantly influence the development of asthma. Daycare exposure had the largest risk reduction for the development of asthma (OR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.03-0.19). Maternal asthma (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.29-6.67), baseline body mass index (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.42), and specific immunoglobulin E to house-dust mix at 3 years were each independent risk factors for the development of asthma. In children with AD, cat and daycare exposure may reduce the risk of developing early childhood asthma.

  5. Estimation of risk management effects on revenue and purchased feed costs on US dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadrich, Joleen C; Johnson, Kamina K

    2015-09-01

    Variations in milk and feed prices directly affect dairy farm risk management decisions. This research used data from the 2010 US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Resource Management Surveys phase III dairy survey to examine how risk management tools affected revenues and expenses across US dairy farms. The survey was sent to 26 states and collected information on costs and returns to individual dairy farms. This research used the information from milk sales, crops sales, feed expenses, and farm and operator characteristics, as well as the use of risk management tools. Matching methodology was used to evaluate the effect of 5 independent risk management tools on revenues and expenses: selling milk to a cooperative, using a commodity contract to sell grain, feeding homegrown forage at a basic and intensive level, and use of a nutritionist. Results showed that dairy farms located in the Midwest and East benefit from selling milk to a cooperative and using commodity contracts to sell grain. Across the United States, using a nutritionist increased total feed costs, whereas a feeding program that included more than 65% homegrown forages decreased total feed costs. Results point to benefits from educational programming on risk management tools that are region specific rather than a broad generalization to all US dairy farmers. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Non-targeted effects of ionising radiation—Implications for low dose risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kadhim, Munira; Salomaa, Sisko; Wright, Eric

    2013-01-01

    and adaptive responses are powered by fundamental, but not clearly understood systems that maintain tissue homeostasis. Despite excellent research in this field by various groups, there are still gaps in our understanding of the likely mechanisms associated with non-DNA targeted effects, particularly......Non-DNA targeted effects of ionising radiation, which include genomic instability, and a variety of bystander effects including abscopal effects and bystander mediated adaptive response, have raised concerns about the magnitude of low-dose radiation risk. Genomic instability, bystander effects....... Furthermore, it is still not known what the initial target and early interactions in cells are that give rise to non-targeted responses in neighbouring or descendant cells. This paper provides a commentary on the current state of the field as a result of the non-targeted effects of ionising radiation (NOTE...

  7. Failure mode and effect analysis: improving intensive care unit risk management processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askari, Roohollah; Shafii, Milad; Rafiei, Sima; Abolhassani, Mohammad Sadegh; Salarikhah, Elaheh

    2017-04-18

    Purpose Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a practical tool to evaluate risks, discover failures in a proactive manner and propose corrective actions to reduce or eliminate potential risks. The purpose of this paper is to apply FMEA technique to examine the hazards associated with the process of service delivery in intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Yazd, Iran. Design/methodology/approach This was a before-after study conducted between March 2013 and December 2014. By forming a FMEA team, all potential hazards associated with ICU services - their frequency and severity - were identified. Then risk priority number was calculated for each activity as an indicator representing high priority areas that need special attention and resource allocation. Findings Eight failure modes with highest priority scores including endotracheal tube defect, wrong placement of endotracheal tube, EVD interface, aspiration failure during suctioning, chest tube failure, tissue injury and deep vein thrombosis were selected for improvement. Findings affirmed that improvement strategies were generally satisfying and significantly decreased total failures. Practical implications Application of FMEA in ICUs proved to be effective in proactively decreasing the risk of failures and corrected the control measures up to acceptable levels in all eight areas of function. Originality/value Using a prospective risk assessment approach, such as FMEA, could be beneficial in dealing with potential failures through proposing preventive actions in a proactive manner. The method could be used as a tool for healthcare continuous quality improvement so that the method identifies both systemic and human errors, and offers practical advice to deal effectively with them.

  8. Radiation effects on cancer risks in the life span study cohort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodama, K.; Ozasa, K.; Katayama, H.; Shore, R. E.; Okubo, T.

    2012-01-01

    To determine late health effects of radiation in atomic bomb survivors, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation has been conducting studies on the Life Span Study (LSS) population, which consists of 93 000 atomic bomb survivors and 27.000 controls. A recent report on the incidence of solid cancers estimates that at the age of 70 y, after exposure at the age of 30 y, solid-cancer rates increase by about 35 % per Gy for men and 58 % per Gy for women. The age-at-exposure is an important risk modifier. Furthermore, it seems that radiation-associated increases in cancer rates persist throughout life. In addition, radiation has similar effects upon first-primary and second-primary cancer risks. A recent report on leukemia mortality suggested that the effect of radiation on leukemia mortality persisted for more than five decades. In addition, a significant dose-response for myelodysplastic syndrome is found in Nagasaki LSS members 40-60 y after radiation exposure. In view of the nature of the continuing increase in solid cancers, the LSS should continue to provide important new information on cancer risks, as most survivors still alive today were exposed to the atomic bomb radiation under the age of 20 y and are now entering their cancer-prone years. (authors)

  9. The risk of arrhythmias following coronary artery bypass surgery: do smokers have a paradox effect?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Al-Sarraf, Nael

    2010-11-01

    Smoking is reported to increase the risk of arrhythmias. However, there are limited data on its effects on arrhythmias following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). This is a retrospective review of a prospective database of all CABG patients over an eight-year period. Our cohort (n=2813) was subdivided into: current (n=1169), former (n=837), and non-smokers (n=807). Predictors of arrhythmias following CABG in relation to smoking status were analysed. Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 942 patients (33%). Ventricular arrhythmias occurred in 48 patients (2%) and high-grade atrioventricular block occurred in five patients (0.2%). Arrhythmias were lower in current smokers than former and non-smokers (29% vs. 40% vs. 39%, respectively P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed 30% arrhythmia risk reduction in smokers compared to non-smokers [odds ratio (OR) 0.7, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.5-0.8] and this effect persisted after accounting for potential confounders while former smokers had the same risk as non-smokers (OR 1.04, CI 0.9-1.3). There were no significant differences in mortality. Smokers are less prone to develop arrhythmias following CABG. This paradox effect is lost in former smokers. This effect is possibly due to a lower state of hyper adrenergic stimulation observed in smokers than non-smokers following the stress of surgery.

  10. Potential effect of opium consumption on controlling diabetes and some cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Najmeh; Gozashti, Mohamad Hossain; Najafipour, Hamid; Shokoohi, Mostafa; Marefati, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    Due to this belief that opium may have beneficial effects on diabetes or cardiovascular risk factors, the present study aimed to assess the potential and possible effects of opium consumption on diabetes control and some cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic patients. This study enrolled 374 diabetic subjects from diabetes care centers in Kerman, Iran, including opium user group (n = 179) and a non-opium user group (n = 195). The data were collected through a questionnaire completed by interviewing, physical examination and laboratory assessment. Opium did not show any statistically significant effect on blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C), fasting blood sugar (FBS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and diastolic blood pressure. However, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and prevalence of high SBP were significantly higher in opium user group (P opium user group (P opium does not seem to have beneficial effects on diabetes control or cardiovascular risk factors. Therefore, it would not be advisable to consume opium as an anti-diabetes or cardioprotective agent.

  11. Radiation effects-prevalence of contributory risk factors a pilot study in Visakhapthnam steel plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakshman rao, K. V.

    2004-01-01

    Integrated Steel Plants contribute significant air pollution, water pollution and solid waste generation. Diverse occupational health hazards present is steel industry pose ill effects to the industrial workers. Occupational health services and research center (OHS and RC) of this plant established in the year 1992 to protect the health and well-being of all the employees working in different occupations. the primary role OHS and RC is to conduct periodical medical examinations, monitoring of the working environments, suggest the suitable personal protective equipment to the workers, evaluate risk factors, work practices, risk management and industrial toxicological studies. Dissemination of information related to occupational health and safety to the working population through regular educational sessions at the workplaces as at training and development center (T and DC) is also part of our services. The proneness for effects of exposure to ionizing radiation is enhanced by various factors related to the family history of chronic diseases, nutritional status of the individuals, the lifestyle factors apart from psycho-social factors like illiteracy, ignorance, negligence and inadequate utilization of personal protective equipment (PPE) at workplace. To evaluate the prevalence of such contributory risk factors, a pilot study has been conducted in Visakhapatnam Steel Plant. The data is obtained through routine periodical medical examination of workers at the Occupational Health Services Center through standard format. The study revealed statistically high prevalence of the risk factors and indicated the necessity of intensifying primary prevention methods in addition to environmental control and usage of PPE. (Author)

  12. Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

    2010-01-01

    The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

  13. The Combined Effect of Hyperuricaemia and Overweight/Obesity on Risk of Hypertension in Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Li

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: While hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity can act alone to increase the prevalence of hypertension, few studies have examined their combined effect. Methods: This cross-sectional study of 42 332 Han Chinese from southwestern China investigated the combined effect of hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity on risk of hypertension in the entire sample as well as in different genders and age groups. Results: Hypertension was significantly more prevalent among individuals with both hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity (45.5% than among those with hyperuricaemia alone (28.1% or overweight/obesity alone (31.3%. Similarly, the increase in hypertension risk in the presence of both hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity (OR = 6.777, 95%CI 6.133, 7.489 was significantly greater than the increase in the presence of hyperuricaemia alone (OR = 3.168, 95%CI 2.705, 3.711 or overweight/obesity alone (OR = 3.693, 95% CI 3.503, 3.893. These results were similar across each age group. The same trend was also observed when comparing men and women, though the odds ratios were greater for women. Conclusion: Co-occurrence of hyperuricaemia and overweight/obesity increases risk of hypertension more than either morbidity on its own, and this risk differential is significantly greater in women than men. These findings should be confirmed in other ethnic groups and in longitudinal studies.

  14. Neural effects of the CSMD1 genome-wide associated schizophrenia risk variant rs10503253.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Rose, Emma J

    2013-09-01

    The single nucleotide polymorphism rs10503253 within the CUB and Sushi multiple domains-1 (CSMD1) gene on 8p23.2 has been identified as genome-wide significant for schizophrenia (SZ). This gene is of unknown function but has been implicated in multiple neurodevelopmental disorders that impact upon cognition, leading us to hypothesize that an effect on brain structure and function underlying cognitive processes may be part of the mechanism by which CMSD1 increases illness risk. To test this hypothesis, we investigated this CSMD1 variant in vivo in healthy participants in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study comprised of both fMRI of spatial working memory (N = 50) and a voxel-based morphometry investigation of grey and white matter (WM) volume (N = 150). Analyses of these data indicated that the risk "A" allele was associated with comparatively reduced cortical activations in BA18, that is, middle occipital gyrus and cuneus; posterior brain regions that support maintenance processes during performance of a spatial working memory task. Conversely, there was an absence of significant structural differences in brain volume (i.e., grey or WM). In accordance with previous evidence, these data suggest that CSMD1 may mediate brain function related to cognitive processes (i.e., executive function); with the relatively deleterious effects of the identified "A" risk allele on brain activity possibly constituting part of the mechanism by which CSMD1 increases schizophrenia risk.

  15. Parental incarceration and multiple risk experiences: effects on family dynamics and children's delinquency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaron, Lauren; Dallaire, Danielle H

    2010-12-01

    Children of incarcerated parents are exposed to factors that place them at risk for delinquency. Few studies have examined the effects of having an incarcerated parent after controlling for other experiences such as contextual risk factors and family processes. Past studies have also not examined effects of recent, but not current, parental incarceration on children. The present study examines an archival dataset, in which children aged 10-14 years and their parents/guardians reported children's risk experiences (e.g., exposure to poverty, parental substance use), family processes (e.g., level of family victimization, family conflict), and children's delinquent behaviors at two time points. Parents also reported their recent and past incarceration history. Hierarchical linear regression analyses show that a history of parental incarceration predicted family victimization, delinquent behaviors of children's older siblings, and delinquent behaviors of the child participants, over and above children's demographic characteristics and other risk experiences. Recent parental incarceration predicted family conflict, family victimization, and parent-reports of children's delinquency after also controlling for previous parental incarceration. The role of family processes in research and intervention directions involving children of incarcerated parents is discussed.

  16. A re-examination of the effect of contextual group size on people's attitude to risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazumi Shimizu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Using Kahneman and Tversky's life-death decision paradigm, Wang and colleagues (e.g., Wang and Johnston, 1995; Wang, 1996a, 1996b, 1996c, 2008; Wang et al., 2001 have shown two characteristic phenomena regarding people's attitude to risk when the contextual group size is manipulated. In both positive and negative frames, people tend to take greater risks in life-death decisions as the contextual group size becomes smaller; this risk-seeking attitude is greater when framed positively than negatively. (This second characteristic often leads to the disappearance of the framing effect in small group contexts comprising of 6 or 60 people. Their results could shed new light on the effect of contextual group size on people's risk choice. However these results are usually observed in laboratory experiments with university student samples. This study aims to examine the external validity of these results through different ways of experimentation and with a different sample base. The first characteristic was replicated in both a face-to-face interview with a randomly selected sample of the Japanese general public, and a web-based experiment with a non-student sample, but not the second.

  17. Radiation effects-prevalence of contributory risk factors a pilot study in Visakhapthnam steel plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakshman rao, K. V.

    2004-07-01

    Integrated Steel Plants contribute significant air pollution, water pollution and solid waste generation. Diverse occupational health hazards present is steel industry pose ill effects to the industrial workers. Occupational health services and research center (OHS and RC) of this plant established in the year 1992 to protect the health and well-being of all the employees working in different occupations. the primary role OHS and RC is to conduct periodical medical examinations, monitoring of the working environments, suggest the suitable personal protective equipment to the workers, evaluate risk factors, work practices, risk management and industrial toxicological studies. Dissemination of information related to occupational health and safety to the working population through regular educational sessions at the workplaces as at training and development center (T and DC) is also part of our services. The proneness for effects of exposure to ionizing radiation is enhanced by various factors related to the family history of chronic diseases, nutritional status of the individuals, the lifestyle factors apart from psycho-social factors like illiteracy, ignorance, negligence and inadequate utilization of personal protective equipment (PPE) at workplace. To evaluate the prevalence of such contributory risk factors, a pilot study has been conducted in Visakhapatnam Steel Plant. The data is obtained through routine periodical medical examination of workers at the Occupational Health Services Center through standard format. The study revealed statistically high prevalence of the risk factors and indicated the necessity of intensifying primary prevention methods in addition to environmental control and usage of PPE. (Author)

  18. Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project. [Basalt Waste Isolation Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B. (eds.)

    1988-03-01

    The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organized as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab.

  19. A simple model for discounting radiation health effects risks with time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1988-01-01

    In estimating human health effects resulting from ionizing radiation exposures, it is often assumed that the age of the person at the time of exposure and the latency period for the appearance of any associated health effects are values that maximize the consequences of the exposure. Such assumptions are obviously conservative, but they can result in distortions and errors when nondiscounted radiation-related health effects arising from nonradiation-related risks. Human life expectancy obviously decreases with age, and the latency period for radiation-related health effects can range from a few years to several decades. For example, if a man is 45 yr old at the time of exposure and this exposure results in a lethal health effect 20 yr after exposure, then the expected number of years of life loss is ∼5 yr and not 70 yr, as is commonly assumed in radiation risk assessment studies. If one full-health effect is equivalent to 70 person-yr, then this example exposure results in only 0.07 full-health effects

  20. Effect Of Ventilation On Chronic Health Risks In Schools And Offices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parthasarathy, Srinandini [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Fisk, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKone, Thomas E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-01-04

    This study provides a risk assessment for chronic health risks from inhalation exposure to indoor air pollutants in offices and schools with a focus how ventilation impacts exposures to, and risks from, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM2.5). We estimate how much health risks could change with varying ventilation rates under two scenarios: (i) halving the measured ventilation rates and (ii) doubling the measured ventilation rates. For the hazard characterization we draw upon prior papers that identified pollutants potentially affecting health with indoor air concentrations responsive to changes in ventilation rates. For exposure assessment we determine representative concentrations of pollutants using data available in current literature and model changes in exposures with changes in ventilation rates. As a metric of disease burden, we use disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to address both cancer and non-cancer effects. We also compare exposures to guidelines published by regulatory agencies to assess chronic health risks. Chronic health risks are driven primarily by particulate matter exposure, with an estimated baseline disease burden of 150 DALYs per 100,000 people in offices and 140 DALYs per 100,000 people in schools. Study results show that PM2.5-related DALYs are not very sensitive to changes in ventilation rates. Filtration is more effective at controlling PM2.5 concentrations and health effects. Non-cancer health effects contribute only a small fraction of the overall chronic health burden of populations in offices and schools (<1 DALY per 100,000 people). Cancer health effects dominate the disease burden in schools (3 DALYs per 100,000) and offices (5 DALYs per 100,000), with formaldehyde being the primary risk driver. In spite of large uncertainties in toxicological data and dose-response modeling, our results support the finding that ventilation rate changes do not have significant impacts on estimated chronic disease