Transient analysis of intercalation electrodes for parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Devan, Sheba

An essential part of integrating batteries as power sources in any application, be it a large scale automotive application or a small scale portable application, is an efficient Battery Management System (BMS). The combination of a battery with the microprocessor based BMS (called "smart battery") helps prolong the life of the battery by operating in the optimal regime and provides accurate information regarding the battery to the end user. The main purposes of BMS are cell protection, monitoring and control, and communication between different components. These purposes are fulfilled by tracking the change in the parameters of the intercalation electrodes in the batteries. Consequently, the functions of the BMS should be prompt, which requires the methodology of extracting the parameters to be efficient in time. The traditional transient techniques applied so far may not be suitable due to reasons such as the inability to apply these techniques when the battery is under operation, long experimental time, etc. The primary aim of this research work is to design a fast, accurate and reliable technique that can be used to extract parameter values of the intercalation electrodes. A methodology based on analysis of the short time response to a sinusoidal input perturbation, in the time domain is demonstrated using a porous electrode model for an intercalation electrode. It is shown that the parameters associated with the interfacial processes occurring in the electrode can be determined rapidly, within a few milliseconds, by measuring the response in the transient region. The short time analysis in the time domain is then extended to a single particle model that involves bulk diffusion in the solid phase in addition to interfacial processes. A systematic procedure for sequential parameter estimation using sensitivity analysis is described. Further, the short time response and the input perturbation are transformed into the frequency domain using Fast Fourier Transform

Transient Oscilliations in Mechanical Systems of Automatic Control with Random Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Royev, B.; Vinokur, A.; Kulikov, G.

2018-04-01

Transient oscillations in mechanical systems of automatic control with random parameters is a relevant but insufficiently studied issue. In this paper, a modified spectral method was applied to investigate the problem. The nature of dynamic processes and the phase portraits are analyzed depending on the amplitude and frequency of external influence. It is evident from the obtained results, that the dynamic phenomena occurring in the systems with random parameters under external influence are complex, and their study requires further investigation.

Transient eddies and low frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter climates of two GCMs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, T.; Sutera, A.

1994-01-01

An aspect of the climate change problem that is also important to our understanding of the general circulation is the relative roles and interactions between baroclinic-scale transient eddies and the larger scale, lower frequency variability of the flow in midlatitudes. A question may be raised as to how a reduced (or enhanced) level of high-frequency transient eddy activity may influence the character of the large-scale flow. If the transient eddies play an important role in determining the large-scale flow patterns in the atmosphere, then we might expect a profound impact from a changed level of high frequency transient eddy activity on the large-scale flow. An opportunity to address this question is presented by the intercomparison of two general circulation models, the differences in whose formulations lie primarily in their physical parameterizations

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

Science.gov (United States)

Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

2013-10-28

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

Simplified distributed parameters BWR dynamic model for transient and stability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Espinosa-Paredes, Gilberto; Nunez-Carrera, Alejandro; Vazquez-Rodriguez, Alejandro

2006-01-01

This paper describes a simplified model to perform transient and linear stability analysis for a typical boiling water reactor (BWR). The simplified transient model was based in lumped and distributed parameters approximations, which includes vessel dome and the downcomer, recirculation loops, neutron process, fuel pin temperature distribution, lower and upper plenums reactor core and pressure and level controls. The stability was determined by studying the linearized versions of the equations representing the BWR system in the frequency domain. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the wide application of the simplified BWR model. We concluded that this simplified model describes properly the dynamic of a BWR and can be used for safety analysis or as a first approach in the design of an advanced BWR

Transient radiation responses of optical fibers: influence of MCVD process parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girard, Sylvain; Alessi, Antonino; Boukenter, Aziz; Ouerdane, Y.; Marcandella, Claude; Richard, Nicolas; Paillet, Philippe; Gaillardin, Marc; Raine, Melanie

2012-01-01

A dedicated set of fibers elaborated via the Modified Chemical Vapor Deposition (MCVD) technique is used to study the influence of composition and drawing parameters on their responses to an X-ray pulse representative of the radiation environments associated with Megajoule class lasers. These canonical fibers were designed to highlight the impact of these parameters on the amplitude and kinetics of the transient pulsed X-ray Radiation Induced Attenuation (RIA) at room temperature. From pre-forms differing by their core composition, three optical fibers were elaborated by varying the tension and speed during the drawing process. No or only slight RIA change results from the tested variations in drawing process parameters of Ge-doped, F-doped, and pure-silica-core fibers. This study reveals that the drawing process is not the main parameter to be optimized in order to enhance the radiation tolerance of MCVD specialty optical fibers for the LMJ harsh environment. From the hardness assurance point of view, a specialty fiber sufficiently tolerant to this environment should be robust against changes in the drawing process. The origins of the RIA observed in the different fibers are discussed on the basis of spectral decomposition of their measured RIA spectra, using sets of defects from the literature and related to the different core dopants. This analysis highlights the limits of the well-known defect set to reproduce the RIA above 1 for Ge-doped fibers whereas self-trapped holes and chlorine-related species seem responsible for the transient responses of pure-silica-core and F-doped fibers. (authors)

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

Intelligent Mechatronics Systems for Transport Climate Parameters Optimization Using Fuzzy Logic Control

OpenAIRE

Beinarts, I; Ļevčenkovs, A; Kuņicina, N

2007-01-01

In article interest is concentrated on the climate parameters optimization in passengers’ salon of public electric transportation vehicles. The article presents mathematical problem for using intelligent agents in mechatronics problems for climate parameters optimal control. Idea is to use fuzzy logic and intelligent algorithms to create coordination mechanism for climate parameters control to save electrical energy, and it increases the level of comfort for passengers. A special interest for...

Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

Science.gov (United States)

Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

2016-04-01

Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res

Extraction of diagnostic parameters from the transient response of a porous electro ceramic gas sensor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossein-Babaei, F.; Orvatinia, M.

2004-01-01

A novel concept for the diagnosis of a pure target gas in air is presented. The method employs a resistive gas sensor with a mm-thick highly porous electro ceramic gas sensitive body. The diagnosis is based on the fact that the diffusion time of the target gas through the porous body would depend on its molecular properties. The transient response of the device was analyzed based on a diffusion reaction equation. The solutions of the equation were shown to be of diagnostic merits. Such a device was fabricated by partial sintering of a Zn O body formed by low pressure pressing. The transient responses of the device to methanol, ethanol, poropanol and butanol were recorded. The analytical data, and the diagnostic parameters were resulted as the fitting parameters. Comparison of the parameters obtained with those available from the calibration experiments afforded target gas identification

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming and Aerosol Cooling to Reveal Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Analysis of transient heat conduction in a PWR fuel rod by an improved lumped parameter approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dourado, Eneida Regina G. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Cotta, Renato M. [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Mecanica; Jian, Su, E-mail: eneidadourado@gmail.com, E-mail: sujian@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: cotta@mecanica.ufrj.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

2017-07-01

This paper aims to analyze transient heat conduction in a nuclear fuel rod by an improved lumped parameter approach. One-dimensional transient heat conduction is considered, with the circumferential symmetry assumed and the axial conduction neglected. The thermal conductivity and specific heat in the fuel pellet are considered temperature dependent, while the thermophysical properties of the cladding are considered constant. Hermite approximation for integration is used to obtain the average temperature and heat flux in the radial direction. Significant improvement over the classical lumped parameter formulation has been achieved. The proposed model can be also used in dynamic analysis of PWR and nuclear power plant simulators. (author)

Analysis of transient heat conduction in a PWR fuel rod by an improved lumped parameter approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dourado, Eneida Regina G.; Cotta, Renato M.; Jian, Su

2017-01-01

This paper aims to analyze transient heat conduction in a nuclear fuel rod by an improved lumped parameter approach. One-dimensional transient heat conduction is considered, with the circumferential symmetry assumed and the axial conduction neglected. The thermal conductivity and specific heat in the fuel pellet are considered temperature dependent, while the thermophysical properties of the cladding are considered constant. Hermite approximation for integration is used to obtain the average temperature and heat flux in the radial direction. Significant improvement over the classical lumped parameter formulation has been achieved. The proposed model can be also used in dynamic analysis of PWR and nuclear power plant simulators. (author)

Impact of some climatic and phenological parameters on the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In the first year, in control clones,climatic and phenological parameters explain 52.80% callogenesis variations, against 31.50% for SE. Therefore,climate and phenology significantly influence callogenesis, but not SE. For further industrial production of secondary metabolites such as butter, the obromin and chocolate aroma ...

Utilising temperature differences as constraints for estimating parameters in a simple climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodman, Roger W; Karoly, David J; Enting, Ian G

2010-01-01

Simple climate models can be used to estimate the global temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases. Changes in the energy balance of the global climate system are represented by equations that necessitate the use of uncertain parameters. The values of these parameters can be estimated from historical observations, model testing, and tuning to more complex models. Efforts have been made at estimating the possible ranges for these parameters. This study continues this process, but demonstrates two new constraints. Previous studies have shown that land-ocean temperature differences are only weakly correlated with global mean temperature for natural internal climate variations. Hence, these temperature differences provide additional information that can be used to help constrain model parameters. In addition, an ocean heat content ratio can also provide a further constraint. A pulse response technique was used to identify relative parameter sensitivity which confirmed the importance of climate sensitivity and ocean vertical diffusivity, but the land-ocean warming ratio and the land-ocean heat exchange coefficient were also found to be important. Experiments demonstrate the utility of the land-ocean temperature difference and ocean heat content ratio for setting parameter values. This work is based on investigations with MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) as the simple climate model.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

Science.gov (United States)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition. PMID:28827324

Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-2099

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meier, H.E.M.; Hordoir, R.; Andersson, H.C.; Dieterich, C.; Hoeglund, A.; Schimanke, S. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Department of Research and Development, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Eilola, K. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Department of Research and Development, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden); Gustafsson, B.G. [Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)

2012-11-15

The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP. (orig.)

The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model

Science.gov (United States)

McNeall, Doug; Williams, Jonny; Booth, Ben; Betts, Richard; Challenor, Peter; Wiltshire, Andy; Sexton, David

2016-11-01

Uncertainty in the simulation of the carbon cycle contributes significantly to uncertainty in the projections of future climate change. We use observations of forest fraction to constrain carbon cycle and land surface input parameters of the global climate model FAMOUS, in the presence of an uncertain structural error. Using an ensemble of climate model runs to build a computationally cheap statistical proxy (emulator) of the climate model, we use history matching to rule out input parameter settings where the corresponding climate model output is judged sufficiently different from observations, even allowing for uncertainty. Regions of parameter space where FAMOUS best simulates the Amazon forest fraction are incompatible with the regions where FAMOUS best simulates other forests, indicating a structural error in the model. We use the emulator to simulate the forest fraction at the best set of parameters implied by matching the model to the Amazon, Central African, South East Asian, and North American forests in turn. We can find parameters that lead to a realistic forest fraction in the Amazon, but that using the Amazon alone to tune the simulator would result in a significant overestimate of forest fraction in the other forests. Conversely, using the other forests to tune the simulator leads to a larger underestimate of the Amazon forest fraction. We use sensitivity analysis to find the parameters which have the most impact on simulator output and perform a history-matching exercise using credible estimates for simulator discrepancy and observational uncertainty terms. We are unable to constrain the parameters individually, but we rule out just under half of joint parameter space as being incompatible with forest observations. We discuss the possible sources of the discrepancy in the simulated Amazon, including missing processes in the land surface component and a bias in the climatology of the Amazon.

Effect of some climatic parameters on tropospheric and total ozone ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Effect of some climatic parameters on tropospheric and total ozone column over Alipore (22.52°N, 88.33°E), India ... insolation obtained from Solar Geophysical Data Book and El-ñ index collected from National Climatic Data Center, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA.

The linkage among ambulance transports, death and climate parameters in Asahikawa City, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kataoka, Hiroaki; Mochimasu, Kazumi Dokai; Katayama, Akihiko; Kanda, Kanae Oda; Sakano, Noriko; Tanaka, Keiko; Miyatake, Nobuyuki

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths in Asahikawa City in northern Japan. Monthly data on total ambulance transports and the number of deaths from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained from Asahikawa City Fire Department and the Asahikawa City official website. Climate parameters for the required period were also obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan. To adjust for the population, we also used monthly population data on Asahikawa City. The linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was evaluated by ecological analysis. The mean air temperature in the Asahikawa area was 7.3 ± 10.1 °C. Total ambulance transports (/a hundred thousand people/day) and the number of deaths (/a hundred thousand people/day) were 10.0 ± 0.6 and 2.6 ± 0.3, respectively. Using quadratic curves, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths were weakly correlated with some climate parameters. The number of deaths was weakly and positively correlated with total ambulance transports. A weak linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was noted in Asahikawa City, Japan. However, these associations were not as high as expected.

Selection of the Climate Parameters for a Building Envelopes and Indoor Climate Systems Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Samarin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The current research considers the principles of selection of the climate information needed for the building envelope and indoor climate design and adopted in Russia and some European countries. Special reference has been made to the shortcoming of methodologies that include the notion of a typical year, and the advantages of climate data sets generated via software-based designs, using pseudo-random number generators. The results of the average temperature of the coldest five-day period with various supplies were calculated using the numerical Monte-Carlo simulations, as well as the current climate data. It has been shown that there is a fundamental overlap between the statistical distribution of temperatures of both instances and the possibility of implementation a probabilistic-statistical method principle in the development of certain climate data, relative to envelopes and thermal conditions of a building. The calculated values were combined with the analytic expression of the normal law of random distribution and the correlations needed for the main parameter selection.

The application of model with lumped parameters for transient condition analyses of NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stankovic, B.; Stevanovic, V.

1985-01-01

The transient behaviour of NPP Krsko during the accident of pressurizer spray valve stuck open has been simulated y lumped parameters model of the PWR coolant system components, developed at the faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade. The elementary volumes which are characterised by the process and state parameters, and by junctions which are characterised by the geometrical and flow parameters are basic structure of physical model. The process parameters obtained by the model RESI, show qualitative agreement with the measured valves, in a degree in which the actions of reactor safety engineered system and emergency core cooling system are adequately modelled; in spite of the elementary physical model structure and only the modelling of thermal process in reactor core and equilibrium conditions of pressurizer and steam generator. The pressurizer pressure and liquid level predicted by the non-equilibrium pressurizer model SOP show good agreement until the HIPS (high pressure pumps) is activated. (author)

Solution of axisymmetric transient inverse heat conduction problems using parameter estimation and multi block methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azimi, A.; Hannani, S.K.; Farhanieh, B.

2005-01-01

In this article, a comparison between two iterative inverse techniques to solve simultaneously two unknown functions of axisymmetric transient inverse heat conduction problems in semi complex geometries is presented. The multi-block structured grid together with blocked-interface nodes is implemented for geometric decomposition of physical domain. Numerical scheme for solution of transient heat conduction equation is the finite element method with frontal technique to solve algebraic system of discrete equations. The inverse heat conduction problem involves simultaneous unknown time varying heat generation and time-space varying boundary condition estimation. Two parameter-estimation techniques are considered, Levenberg-Marquardt scheme and conjugate gradient method with adjoint problem. Numerically computed exact and noisy data are used for the measured transient temperature data needed in the inverse solution. The results of the present study for a configuration including two joined disks with different heights are compared to those of exact heat source and temperature boundary condition, and show good agreement. (author)

correlation between sunshine hours and climatic parameters at four

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mgina

A multiple regression technique was used to assess the correlation between sunshine hours and maximum and ... solar radiation depends on the model and the climatic parameter used. ..... A stochastic Markov chain model for simulating wind ...

New Proxies for Climate change parameters: Foram Culturing and Pteropod Potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Keul, N.; Schneider, R. R.; Langer, G.; Bijma, J.; Peijnenburg, K. T.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most pressing challenges our society is currently facing and strong efforts are made to simulate future climate conditions. To better validate models that aim at predicting global temperature rise as a consequence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, accurate atmospheric paleo-CO2 estimates in combination with temperature reconstructions are necessary. Consequently there is a strong need for reliable proxies, allowing reconstruction of climate change. With respect to foraminifera a combination of laboratory experiments and modeling is presented, to show the isolated impact of the different parameters of the carbonate system on trace element composition of their shells. We focus on U/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios, which have recently been established as new proxies reflecting changes in the carbonate system of seawater. While U/Ca correlates with carbonate ion concentration, Sr/Ca is primarily influenced by DIC. The latter is particularly promising since the impact of additional parameters is relatively well constrained and hence, Sr/Ca ratios may allow higher accuracy in carbonate system parameter reconstructions. Furthermore, our results will be discussed on how to advance our knowledge about foraminiferal biomineralization. Pteropods, among the first responders to ocean acidification and warming, are explored as carriers of marine paleoenvironmental signals. In order to characterize the stable isotopic composition of aragonitic pteropod shells and their variation in response to climate change parameters, pteropod shells were collected along a latitudinal transect in the Atlantic Ocean. By comparing shell oxygen isotopic composition to depth changes of the calculated aragonite equilibrium oxygen isotope values, we infer shallow calcification depths for Heliconoides inflatus (75 m), rendering this species a good potential proxy carrier for past variations in surface ocean properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate that indeed, pteropod shells are

Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Loutre

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within a range based on the expert judgement of model developers. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are selected because they yield present-day climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and freshwater flux perturbation in the North Atlantic. Moreover, they also lead to a large range of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Consequently, we have at our disposal 27 alternative versions of LOVECLIM (each corresponding to one parameter set that provide very different responses to some climate forcings. The 27 model versions are then used to illustrate the range of responses provided over the recent past, to compare the time evolution of climate variables over the time interval for which they are available (the last few decades up to more than one century and to identify the outliers and the "best" versions over that particular time span. For example, between 1979 and 2005, the simulated global annual mean surface temperature increase ranges from 0.24 °C to 0.64 °C, while the simulated increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration varies between 40 and 50 ppmv. Measurements over the same period indicate an increase in global annual mean surface temperature of 0.45 °C (Brohan et al., 2006 and an increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 44 ppmv (Enting et al., 1994; GLOBALVIEW-CO2, 2006. Only a few parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last

A distributed parameter wire model for transient electrical discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier, W.B. II; Kadish, A.; Sutherland, C.D.; Robiscoe, R.T.

1990-01-01

A model for freely propagating transient electrical discharges, such as lightning and punch-through arcs, is developed in this paper. We describe the electromagnetic fields by Maxwell's equations and we represent the interaction of electric fields with the medium to produce current by ∂J/∂t=ω 2 (E-E*J)/4π, where ω and E* are parameters characteristic of the medium, J≡current density, and J≡J/|J|. We illustrate the properties of this model for small-diameter, guided, cylindrically symmetric discharges. Analytic, numerical, and approximate solutions are given for special cases. The model describes, in a new and comprehensive fashion, certain macroscopic discharge properties, such as threshold behavior, quenching and reignition, path tortuosity, discharge termination with nonzero charge density remaining along the discharge path, and other experimentally observed discharge phenomena. Fields, current densities, and charge densities are quantitatively determined from given boundary and initial conditions. We suggest that many macroscopic discharge properties are properly explained by the model as electromagnetic phenomena, and we discuss extensions of the model to include chemistry, principally ionization and recombination

Simulating fission product transients via the history-based local-parameter methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jenkins, D.A.; Rouben, B.; Salvatore, M.

1993-01-01

This paper describes the fission-product-calculation capacity of the history-based local-parameter methodology for evaluating lattice properties for use in core-tracking calculations in CANDU reactors. In addition to taking into account the individual past history of each bundles flux/power level, fuel temperature, and coolant density and temperature that the bundle has seen during its stay in the core, the latest refinement of the history-based method provides the capability of fission-product-drivers. It allows the bundle-specific concentrations of the three basic groups of saturating fission products to be calculated in steady state or following a power transient, including long shutdowns. The new capability is illustrated by simulating the startup period following a typical long-shutdown, starting from a snapshot in the Point Lepreau operating history. 9 refs., 7 tabs

Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, C T; Matthews, H D

2016-01-01

Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO 2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO 2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO 2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO 2 . We find that when we isolate the CO 2 -induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO 2 . We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO 2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

Modelling and transient simulation of water flow in pipelines using WANDA Transient software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P.U. Akpan

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Pressure transients in conduits such as pipelines are unsteady flow conditions caused by a sudden change in the flow velocity. These conditions might cause damage to the pipelines and its fittings if the extreme pressure (high or low is experienced within the pipeline. In order to avoid this occurrence, engineers usually carry out pressure transient analysis in the hydraulic design phase of pipeline network systems. Modelling and simulation of transients in pipelines is an acceptable and cost effective method of assessing this problem and finding technical solutions. This research predicts the pressure surge for different flow conditions in two different pipeline systems using WANDA Transient simulation software. Computer models were set-up in WANDA Transient for two different systems namely; the Graze experiment (miniature system and a simple main water riser system based on some initial laboratory data and system parameters. The initial laboratory data and system parameters were used for all the simulations. Results obtained from the computer model simulations compared favourably with the experimental results at Polytropic index of 1.2.

The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hallegatte, Stephane [CIRED - CNRM, Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

2005-04-01

This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hallegatte, Stephane

2005-04-01

This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

Transient eddy feedback and low-frequency variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, W.A.

1994-01-01

Superposed on any externally driven secular climatic change are fluctuations that arise from the internal nonlinear dynamics of the climate system. These internally generated variations may involve interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean, as in the case of El Nino, or they may arise from the dynamics of the atmosphere alone. Here we discuss the dynamics of interactions between transient eddies and lower-frequency motions in the atmosphere. The interactions between more transient and more persistent motions can be divided into two types. Nonlinear interactions among the transient motions can act as an essentially random source of low-frequency motion. The idea that the low-frequencies respond in a linear way to stochastic forcing from higher frequencies has been applied to the generation of planetary waves and to the forcing of changes in global angular momentum. In addition to stochastic coupling, there are systematic interactions, denoted feedbacks, through which the persistent motions modulate their own forcing by the transient eddies. This paper discusses the dynamics of these feedbacks

Probability and statistical correlation of the climatic parameters for estimatingenergy consumption of a building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samarin Oleg Dmitrievich

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of the most accurate estimation of energy consumption by ventilation and air conditioning systems in buildings is a high-priority task now because of the decrease of energy and fuel sources and because of the revision of building standards in Russian Federation. That’s why it is very important to find simple but accurate enough correlations of the climatic parameters in heating and cooling seasons of a year.Therefore the probabilistic and statistical relationship of the parameters of external climate in warm and cold seasons are considered. The climatic curves for cold and warm seasons in Moscow showing the most probable combinations between the external air temperature and the relative air humidity are plotted using the data from the Design Guidelines to the State Building Code “Building Climatology”. The statistical relationship of the enthalpy and the external air temperature for climatic conditions of Moscow are determined using these climatic curves and formulas connecting relative air humidity and other parameters of the air moisture degree.The mean value of the external air enthalpy for the heating season is calculated in order to simplify the determination of full heat consumption of ventilating and air conditioning systems taking into account the real mean state of external air. The field of application and the estimation of accuracy and standard deviation for the presented dependences are found. The obtained model contains the only independent parameter namely the external air temperature and therefore it can be easily used in engineering practice especially during preliminary calculation.

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient climate...

The Southern Ocean's role in ocean circulation and climate transients

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, A. F.; Stewart, A.; Hines, S.; Adkins, J. F.

2017-12-01

The ventilation of deep and intermediate density classes at the surface of the Southern Ocean impacts water mass modification and the air-sea exchange of heat and trace gases, which in turn influences the global overturning circulation and Earth's climate. Zonal variability occurs along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Antarctic margins related to flow-topography interactions, variations in surface boundary conditions, and exchange with northern basins. Information about these zonal variations, and their impact on mass and tracer transport, are suppressed when the overturning is depicted as a two-dimensional (depth-latitude) streamfunction. Here we present an idealized, multi-basin, time-dependent circulation model that applies residual circulation theory in the Southern Ocean and allows for zonal water mass transfer between different ocean basins. This model efficiently determines the temporal evolution of the ocean's stratification, ventilation and overturning strength in response to perturbations in the external forcing. With this model we explore the dynamics that lead to transitions in the circulation structure between multiple, isolated cells and a three-dimensional, "figure-of-eight," circulation in which traditional upper and lower cells are interleaved. The transient model is also used to support a mechanistic explanation of the hemispheric asymmetry and phase lag associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last glacial period. In particular, the 200 year lag in southern hemisphere temperatures, following a perturbation in North Atlantic deep water formation, depends critically on the migration of Southern Ocean isopycnal outcropping in response to low-latitude stratification changes. Our results provide a self-consistent dynamical framework to explain various ocean overturning transitions that have occurred over the Earth's last 100,000 years, and motivate an exploration of these mechanisms in more sophisticated climate models.

Transient dynamic and modeling parameter sensitivity analysis of 1D solid oxide fuel cell model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huangfu, Yigeng; Gao, Fei; Abbas-Turki, Abdeljalil; Bouquain, David; Miraoui, Abdellatif

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A multiphysics, 1D, dynamic SOFC model is developed. • The presented model is validated experimentally in eight different operating conditions. • Electrochemical and thermal dynamic transient time expressions are given in explicit forms. • Parameter sensitivity is discussed for different semi-empirical parameters in the model. - Abstract: In this paper, a multiphysics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) dynamic model is developed by using a one dimensional (1D) modeling approach. The dynamic effects of double layer capacitance on the electrochemical domain and the dynamic effect of thermal capacity on thermal domain are thoroughly considered. The 1D approach allows the model to predict the non-uniform distributions of current density, gas pressure and temperature in SOFC during its operation. The developed model has been experimentally validated, under different conditions of temperature and gas pressure. Based on the proposed model, the explicit time constant expressions for different dynamic phenomena in SOFC have been given and discussed in detail. A parameters sensitivity study has also been performed and discussed by using statistical Multi Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (MPSA) method, in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the modeling accuracy

Basic causes of amplitude modulation in climatic/weather parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1987-11-01

The continuous interaction between the Earth's spinning motion and energy from the Sun gives rise to some (heat) energy oscillations in the Earth-atmosphere system (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986a; 1986b). Recent results of large scale analysis of East African climatic records have proved that these oscillations significantly link the Sun to climatic/weather variations by systematically modulating key climatic/weather parameters like rainfall and air temperature (Njau, 1987a; 1987b; 1987c; 1987e; 1987f). In this paper, we re-develop the latter proof using a very different approach based upon theoretical analysis. The analysis has confirmed a general law suggested earlier (Njau, 1987d), that, with an exception of the diurnal cycle, any permanent cycle in the net solar energy incident upon a given part of the Earth-Atmosphere system gives rise to a quasi-permanent cycle whose period is approximately twice that of the former. Quasi-biennial as well as double sunspot cycles are shown to be a possible result of this general law. (author). 35 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

Land surface and climate parameters and malaria features in Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, Y. A.; Anh, N. K.

2017-12-01

Land surface parameters may affect local microclimate, which in turn alters the development of mosquito habitats and transmission risks (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-vector borne diseases). Forest malaria is a chromic issue in Southeast Asian countries, in particular, such as Vietnam (in 1991, approximate 2 million cases and 4,646 deaths were reported (https://sites.path.org)). Vietnam has lowlands, sub-tropical high humidity, and dense forests, resulting in wide-scale distribution and high biting rate of mosquitos in Vietnam, becoming a challenging and out of control scenario, especially in Vietnamese Central Highland region. It is known that Vietnam's economy mainly relies on agriculture and malaria is commonly associated with poverty. There is a strong demand to investigate the relationship between land surface parameters (land cover, soil moisture, land surface temperature, etc.) and climatic variables (precipitation, humidity, evapotranspiration, etc.) in association with malaria distribution. GIS and remote sensing have been proven their powerful potentials in supporting environmental and health studies. The objective of this study aims to analyze physical attributes of land surface and climate parameters and their links with malaria features. The outcomes are expected to illustrate how remotely sensed data has been utilized in geohealth applications, surveillance, and health risk mapping. In addition, a platform with promising possibilities of allowing disease early-warning systems with citizen participation will be proposed.

Change in geometrical parameters of WWER high burnup fuel rods under operational conditions and transient testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanashov, B.; Amosov, S.; Lyadov, G.; Markov, D.; Ovchinnikov, V; Polenok, V.; Smirnov, A.; Sukhikh, A.; Bek, E.; Yenin, A.; Novikov, V.

2001-01-01

The paper discusses changes in fuel rods geometric parameters as result of operation conditions and burnups. The degree of geometry variability of fuel rods, cladding and column is one of the most important characteristics affecting fuel serviceability. On the other hand, changes in fuel rod geometric parameters influence fuel temperature, fission gas release, fuel-to-cladding stress strained state as well as the degree of interaction with FA skeleton elements and skeleton rigidity. Change in fuel-to-cladding gap is measured using compression technique. The axial distribution of fuel-to-cladding gap demonstrates the largest decrease of the gap in the region 500 to 2000 mm from the bottom of the fuel rod (WWER-440) and in the region of 500 to 3000 mm for WWER-1000. The cladding material creep in WWER fuel rods together with the radiation growth results in fuel rod cladding elongation. A set of transient tests for spent WWER-440 and WWER-1000 fuel rods carried out in SSC RIAR during a period 1995-1999, with the aim to estimate the changes in geometric parameters of FRs. The estimation of changes in outer diameter of cladding and fuel column and fuel-to-cladding gap are performed in transient conditions (changes in linear power range of 180 to 400 W/cm) for both WWER-440 and WWER-1000. WWER-440 fuel rods having the same burnup and close fuel-cladding contact before testing are subjected to considerable hoop cladding strain in testing up to 300 W/cm. But the hoop strain does not grow due to the structural changes in fuel column and decrease in central hole diameter occurred when the power is higher

RETRAN sensitivity studies of light water reactor transients. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burrell, N.S.; Gose, G.C.; Harrison, J.F.; Sawtelle, G.R.

1977-06-01

This report presents the results of sensitivity studies performed using the RETRAN/RELAP4 transient analysis code to identify critical parameters and models which influence light water reactor transient predictions. Various plant transients for both boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors are examined. These studies represent the first detailed evaluation of the RETRAN/RELAP4 transient code capability in predicting a variety of plant transient responses. The wide range of transients analyzed in conjunction with the parameter and modeling studies performed identify several sensitive areas as well as areas requiring future study and model development

The physics and dynamics of the climate system simulation of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, J.F.B.

1991-01-01

The increases in atmospheric Greenhouse gases since 1860 have a radiative effect equivalent to a 40% increase in carbon dioxide concentrations, and by the middle of the next century, are expected to be equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Simulations with detailed climate models indicate that this would produce a warming of 2 to 5 K in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium, with accompanying changes in precipitation, sea level and other parameters. The observed increase of 0.5 K since 1900 is consistent with the lower range of the estimated potential increase, allowing for a possible slowing of the global mean warming due to the ocean's large thermal inertia. There is an ever pressing need to predict the likely changes in climate due to increases in trace gases and detailed 3-dimensional models of climate are the most promising method of providing the detailed information required for climatic impact assessment. This paper is arranged as follows: 1. Introduction, why model climate. 2. The Greenhouse effect. 3. The principal gases, past, present and future. 4. Climate feedbacks in CO 2 experiments. 5. Equilibrium climate change due to increased CO 2 . 6. Modelling the transient response to increases in trace gases. 7. Uncertainties in the simulation and detection of the climatic effect of increased trace gases. 8. Appeals to the past; simulations for 9000 years before present (9 K bp). 13 figs., 3 tabs., 33 refs

Surface radiation fluxes in transient climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Garratt, J. R.; O'Brien, D. M.; Dix, M. R.; Murphy, J. M.; Stephens, G. L.; Wild, M.

1999-01-01

Transient CO 2 experiments from five coupled climate models, in which the CO 2 concentration increases at rates of 0.6-1.1% per annum for periods of 75-200 years, are used to document the responses of surface radiation fluxes, and associated atmospheric properties, to the CO 2 increase. In all five models, the responses of global surface temperature and column water vapour are non-linear and fairly tightly constrained. Thus, global warming lies between 1.9 and 2.7 K at doubled, and between 3.1 and 4.1 K at tripled, CO 2, whilst column water vapour increases by between 3.5 and 4.5 mm at doubled, and between 7 and 8 mm at tripled, CO 2. Global cloud fraction tends to decrease by 1-2% out to tripled CO 2, mainly the result of decreases in low cloud. Global increases in column water, and differences in these increases between models, are mainly determined by the warming of the tropical oceans relative to the middle and high latitudes; these links are emphasised in the zonal profiles of warming and column water vapour increase, with strong water vapour maxima in the tropics. In all models the all-sky shortwave flux to the surface S↓ (global, annual average) changes by less than 5 W m -2 out to tripled CO 2, in some cases being essentially invariant in time. In contrast, the longwave flux to the surface L↓ increases significantly, by 25 W m -2 typically at tripled CO 2. The variations of S↓ and L↓ (clear-sky and all-sky fluxes) with increase in CO 2 concentration are generally non-linear, reflecting the effects of ocean thermal inertia, but as functions of global warming are close to linear in all five models. This is best illustrated for the clear-sky downwelling fluxes, and the net radiation. Regionally, as illustrated in zonal profiles and global distributions, greatest changes in both S↓ and L↓ are the result primarily of local maxima in warming and column water vapour increases.

Characterization of electrical appliances in transient state

Science.gov (United States)

Wójcik, Augustyn; Winiecki, Wiesław

2017-08-01

The article contains the study about electrical appliance characterization on the basis of power grid signals. To represent devices, parameters of current and voltage signals recorded during transient states are used. In this paper only transients occurring as a result of switching on devices are considered. The way of data acquisition performed in specialized measurement setup developed for electricity load monitoring is described. The paper presents the method of transients detection and the method of appliance parameters calculation. Using the set of acquired measurement data and appropriate software the set of parameters for several household appliances operating in different operating conditions was processed. Usefulness of appliances characterization in Non-Intrusive Appliance Load Monitoring System (NIALMS) with the use of proposed method is discussed focusing on obtained results.

Steady state and transient critical heat flux examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szabados, L.

1978-02-01

In steady state conditions within the P.W.R. parameter range the critical heat flux correlations based on local parameters reproduce the experimental data with less deviations than those based on system parameters. The transient experiments were restricted for the case of power transients. A data processing method for critical heat flux measurements has been developed and the applicability of quasi steady state calculation has been verified. (D.P.)

Electromagnetic transients in power cables

CERN Document Server

da Silva, Filipe Faria

2013-01-01

From the more basic concepts to the most advanced ones where long and laborious simulation models are required, Electromagnetic Transients in Power Cables provides a thorough insight into the study of electromagnetic transients and underground power cables. Explanations and demonstrations of different electromagnetic transient phenomena are provided, from simple lumped-parameter circuits to complex cable-based high voltage networks, as well as instructions on how to model the cables.Supported throughout by illustrations, circuit diagrams and simulation results, each chapter contains exercises,

Uncertainty, Sensitivity Analysis, and Causal Identification in the Arctic using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of the HiLAT Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2018-02-12

Coupled climate models have a large number of input parameters that can affect output uncertainty. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of sea ice proper:es and Arc:c related climate variables to 5 parameters in the HiLAT climate model: air-ocean turbulent exchange parameter (C), conversion of water vapor to clouds (cldfrc_rhminl) and of ice crystals to snow (micro_mg_dcs), snow thermal conduc:vity (ksno), and maximum snow grain size (rsnw_mlt). We used an elementary effect (EE) approach to rank their importance for output uncertainty. EE is an extension of one-at-a-time sensitivity analyses, but it is more efficient in sampling multi-dimensional parameter spaces. We looked for emerging relationships among climate variables across the model ensemble, and used causal discovery algorithms to establish potential pathways for those relationships.

The physics and dynamics of the climate system simulation of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, J.F.B.

1991-01-01

The use of climate models is described, using examples related to: the greenhouse effect, the principal absorbers, past, present and future, climate feedbacks in CO2 experiments, equilibrium climate change due to increased CO2, modelling the transient response to increases in trace gases, uncertainties in the simulation and detection of the climatic effect of increased trace gas, simulations for 9000 years before present

Specification of indoor climate design parameters at the assessment of moisture protective properties of enclosing structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kornienko Sergey Valer’evich

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Due to wide implementation of enveloping structures with increased heat-insulation properties in modern construction here appeared a necessity to assess their moisture conditions. Assessment of moisture conditions of enveloping structures is carried out according to maximum allowable moisture state basing on determining the surface of maximum damping. In relation to it the necessity of additional vapour barrier is checked using moisture balance equation. Though the change of indoor climate parameters in premises is not taken into account in moisture balance equations defined for different seasons. The author improves the method of calculating moisture protective parameters of enclosing structures according to the maximum allowable damping state for a year and a period of moisture accumulation. It is shown in this article that accounting of temperature and relative humidity change of inside air allows specifying calculated parameters of indoor climate in residential and office rooms in assessment of moisture protective properties of enclosing structures for the case of an effective enclosing structure with a façade heat-insulation composite system. Coordinates of the maximum moistened surface of the envelope depends on indoor climate design parameters. It is concluded that the increase of requirements for moisture protection of enclosing structures when using design values of temperature and relative humidity of internal air according to the Russian regulation (SP 50.13330.2012 is not always reasonable. Accounting of changes of indoor climate parameters allows more precise assessment of moisture protective properties of enclosing structures during their design.

Parameter Estimation of Dynamic Multi-zone Models for Livestock Indoor Climate Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Zhuang; Stoustrup, Jakob; Heiselberg, Per

2008-01-01

, the livestock, the ventilation system and the building on the dynamic performance of indoor climate. Some significant parameters employed in the climate model as well as the airflow interaction between each conceptual zone are identified with the use of experimental time series data collected during spring......In this paper, a multi-zone modeling concept is proposed based on a simplified energy balance formulation to provide a better prediction of the indoor horizontal temperature variation inside the livestock building. The developed mathematical models reflect the influences from the weather...... and winter at a real scale livestock building in Denmark. The obtained comparative results between the measured data and the simulated output confirm that a very simple multi-zone model can capture the salient dynamical features of the climate dynamics which are needed for control purposes....

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Seasonal changes in climatic parameters and their relationship with the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tvedebrink, Torben; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Thomsen, R.W.

2008-01-01

The seasonal variation in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease is well recognized, but little is known about its relationship with actual changes in climatic parameters. In this 8-year longitudinal population-based study in Denmark, a harmonic sinusoidal regression model was used...... to examine whether preceding changes in climatic parameters corresponded with subsequent variations in the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia, independently of seasonal variation. The study shows that changes in temperature can be used to closely predict peaks in the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia...

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Good Models Gone Bad: Quantifying and Predicting Parameter-Induced Climate Model Simulation Failures

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Brandon, S.; Covey, C. C.; Domyancic, D.; Ivanova, D. P.

2012-12-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Statistical analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation failures of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2). About 8.5% of our POP2 runs failed for numerical reasons at certain combinations of parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. The SVM classifiers readily predict POP2 failures in an independent validation ensemble, and are subsequently used to determine the causes of the failures via a global sensitivity analysis. Four parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity are identified as the major sources of POP2 failures. Our method can be used to improve the robustness of complex scientific models to parameter perturbations and to better steer UQ ensembles. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was funded by the Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project at LLNL under project tracking code 10-SI-013 (UCRL LLNL-ABS-569112).

Design criteria of integrated reactors based on transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zanocco, P.; Gimenez, M.; Delmastro, D.

1999-01-01

A new tendency in integrated reactors conceptual design is to include safety criteria through accident analysis. In this work, the effect of design parameters in a Loss of Heat Sink transient using design maps is analyzed. Particularly, geometry related parameters and reactivity coefficients are studied. Also the effect of primary relief/safety valve during the transient is evaluated. A design map for valve area vs. coolant density reactivity coefficient is obtained. A computer code (HUARPE) is developed in order to simulate these transients. Coolant, steam dome, pressure vessel structures and core models are implemented. This code is checked against TRAC with satisfactory results. (author)

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2007-04-15

The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

Science.gov (United States)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Understanding Epileptiform After-Discharges as Rhythmic Oscillatory Transients.

Science.gov (United States)

Baier, Gerold; Taylor, Peter N; Wang, Yujiang

2017-01-01

Electro-cortical activity in patients with epilepsy may show abnormal rhythmic transients in response to stimulation. Even when using the same stimulation parameters in the same patient, wide variability in the duration of transient response has been reported. These transients have long been considered important for the mapping of the excitability levels in the epileptic brain but their dynamic mechanism is still not well understood. To investigate the occurrence of abnormal transients dynamically, we use a thalamo-cortical neural population model of epileptic spike-wave activity and study the interaction between slow and fast subsystems. In a reduced version of the thalamo-cortical model, slow wave oscillations arise from a fold of cycles (FoC) bifurcation. This marks the onset of a region of bistability between a high amplitude oscillatory rhythm and the background state. In vicinity of the bistability in parameter space, the model has excitable dynamics, showing prolonged rhythmic transients in response to suprathreshold pulse stimulation. We analyse the state space geometry of the bistable and excitable states, and find that the rhythmic transient arises when the impending FoC bifurcation deforms the state space and creates an area of locally reduced attraction to the fixed point. This area essentially allows trajectories to dwell there before escaping to the stable steady state, thus creating rhythmic transients. In the full thalamo-cortical model, we find a similar FoC bifurcation structure. Based on the analysis, we propose an explanation of why stimulation induced epileptiform activity may vary between trials, and predict how the variability could be related to ongoing oscillatory background activity. We compare our dynamic mechanism with other mechanisms (such as a slow parameter change) to generate excitable transients, and we discuss the proposed excitability mechanism in the context of stimulation responses in the epileptic cortex.

Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Surface Temperature Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

2011-12-01

Predictions of climate change from models depend strongly on the representation of climate system properties emerging from the processes and feedbacks in the models. The quality of any model prediction can be evaluated by determining how well its output reproduces the observed climate system. With this evaluation, the reliability of climate projections derived from the model and provided for policy makers is assessed and quantified. In this study, surface temperature, upper-air temperature, and ocean heat content data are used to constrain the distributions of the parameters that define three climate system properties in the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake into the deep ocean, and net anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of the distributions to the surface temperature dataset used to estimate the likelihood of model output given the observed climate records. In total, five different reconstructions of past surface temperatures are used and the resulting parameter distribution functions differ from each other. Differences in estimates of climate sensitivity mode and mean are as great as 1 K between the datasets, with an overall range of 1.2 to 5.3 K using the 5-95 confidence intervals. Ocean effective diffusivity is poorly constrained regardless of which dataset is used. All distributions show broad distributions and only three show signs of a distribution mode. When a mode is present, they tend to be for low diffusivity values. Distributions for the net aerosol forcing show similar shapes and cluster into two groups that are shifted by approximately 0.1 watts per square meter. However, the overall spread of forcing values from the 5-95 confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.83 watts per square meter, is small compared to other uncertainties in climate forcings. Transient climate response estimates derived from these distributions range between 0.87 and 2.41 K. Similar to the

Hydrologic and radiative feedbacks on extratropical transient eddies: Implications of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutowski, W.J. Jr.; Branscome, L.E.

1994-01-01

Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to global energy and water cycles through their transports of sensible heat and water vapor. Changes in global climate induced by greenhouse enhancement will likely alter transient eddy behavior. General circulation models (GCMs) can simulate such alterations, but unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in GCMs is difficult

VEMAP 2: U.S. Daily Climate Change Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: VEMAP Phase 2 has developed a number of transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) transient...

Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambrosi, Ph.

2006-01-01

To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

Analysis of forced convective transient boiling by homogeneous model of two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kataoka, Isao

1985-01-01

Transient forced convective boiling is of practical importance in relation to the accident analysis of nuclear reactor etc. For large length-to-diameter ratio, the transient boiling characteristics are predicted by transient two-phase flow calculations. Based on homogeneous model of two-phase flow, the transient forced convective boiling for power and flow transients are analysed. Analytical expressions of various parameters of transient two-phase flow have been obtained for several simple cases of power and flow transients. Based on these results, heat flux, velocity and time at transient CHF condition are predicted analytically for step and exponential power increases, and step, exponential and linear velocity decreases. The effects of various parameters on heat flux, velocity and time at transient CHF condition have been clarified. Numerical approach combined with analytical method is proposed for more complicated cases. Solution method for pressure transient are also described. (author)

PC-Reactor-core transient simulation code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakata, H.

1989-10-01

PC-REATOR, a reactor core transient simulation code has been developed for the real-time operator training on a IBM-PC microcomputer. The program presents capabilities for on-line exchange of the operating parameters during the transient simulation, by friendly keyboard instructions. The model is based on the point-kinetics approximation, with 2 delayed neutron percursors and up to 11 decay power generating groups. (author) [pt

Fast relaxation transients in a kicked damped oscillator

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Urquizu, Merce [Laboratori d' Estudis Geofisics ' Eduard Fontsere' , IEC, Barcelona (Spain); Correig, Antoni M. [Departament d' Astronomical i Meteorologia, Laboratori d' Estudis Geofisics Eduard Fontsere, UB Marti Franques 1, E-08028 Barcelona (Spain) and Laboratori d' Estudis Geofisics ' Eduard Fontsere' , IEC, Barcelona (Spain)]. E-mail: ton.correig@am.ub.es

2007-08-15

Although nonlinear relaxation transients are very common in nature, very few studies are devoted to its characterization, mainly due to its short time duration. In this paper, we present a study about the nature of relaxation transients in a kicked damped oscillator, in which transients are generated in terms of continuous fast changes in the parameters of the system. We have found that transient dynamics can be described, rather than in terms of bifurcation dynamics, in terms of instantaneous stretching factors, which are related to the stability of fixed points of the corresponding stroboscopic maps.

Using climate derivatives for assessment of meteorological parameter relationships in RCM and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Timuhins, Andrejs; Bethers, Uldis; Bethers, Peteris; Klints, Ilze; Sennikovs, Juris; Frishfelds, Vilnis

2017-04-01

In a changing climate it is essential to estimate its impacts on different economic fields. In our study we tried to create a framework for climate change assessment and climate change impact estimation for the territory of Latvia and to create results which are also understandable for non-scientists (stakeholder, media and public). This approach allowed us to more carefully assess the presentation and interpretation of results and their validation, for public viewing. For the presentation of our work a website was created (www.modlab.lv/klimats) containing two types of documents in a unified framework, meteorological parameter analysis of different easily interpretable derivative values. Both of these include analysis of the current situation as well as illustrate the projection for future time periods. Derivate values are calculated using two data sources: the bias corrected regional climate data and meteorological observation data. Derivative documents contain description of derived value, some interesting facts and conclusions. Additionally, all results may be viewed in temporal and spatial graphs and maps, for different time periods as well as different seasons. Bias correction (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the control period 1961-1990 is applied to RCM data series. Meteorological observation data of the Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Agency and ENSEMBLES project daily data of 13 RCM runs for the period 1960-2100 are used. All the documents are prepared in python notebooks, which allow for flexible changes. At the moment following derivative values have been published: forest fire risk index, wind energy, phenology (Degree days), road condition (friction, ice conditions), daily minimal meteorological visibility, headache occurrence rate, firs snow date and meteorological parameter analysis: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloudiness. While creating these products RCM ability to represent the actual climate was

Mitigation method of thermal transient stress by thermalhydraulic-structure total analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasahara, Naoto; Jinbo, Masakazu; Hosogai, Hiromi

2003-01-01

This study proposes a rational evaluation and mitigation method of thermal transient loads in fast reactor components by utilizing relationships among plant system parameters and stresses induced by thermal transients of plants. A thermalhydraulic-structure total analysis procedure helps us to grasp relationship among system parameters and thermal stresses. Furthermore, it enables mitigation of thermal transient loads by adjusting system parameters. In order to overcome huge computations, a thermalhydraulic-structure total analysis code and the Design of Experiments methodology are utilized. The efficiency of the proposed mitigation method is validated through thermal stress evaluation of an intermediate heat exchanger in Japanese demonstration fast reactor. (author)

Effect of transient scrotal hyperthermia on sperm parameters, seminal plasma biochemical markers, and oxidative stress in men

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Rao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this experimental prospective study, we aimed to analyze the effect of transient scrotal hyperthermia on the male reproductive organs, from the perspective of sperm parameters, semen plasma biochemical markers, and oxidative stress, to evaluate whether different frequencies of heat exposure cause different degrees of damage to spermatogenesis. Two groups of volunteers (10 per group received testicular warming in a 43°C water bath 10 times, for 30 min each time: group 1: 10 consecutive days; group 2: once every 3 days. Sperm parameters, epididymis and accessory sex gland function, semen plasma oxidative stress and serum sex hormones were tested before treatment and in the 16-week recovery period after treatment. At last, we found an obvious reversible decrease in sperm concentration (P = 0.005 for Group 1 and P= 0.008 for Group 2 when the minimums were compared with baseline levels, the same below, motility (P = 0.009 and 0.021, respectively, the hypoosmotic swelling test score (P = 0.007 and 0.008, respectively, total acrosin activity (P = 0.018 and 0.009, respectively, and an increase in the seminal plasma malondialdehyde concentration (P = 0.005 and 0.017, respectively. The decrease of sperm concentration was greater for Group 2 than for Group 1 (P = 0.031. We concluded that transient scrotal hyperthermia seriously, but reversibly, negatively affected the spermatogenesis, oxidative stress may be involved in this process. In addition, intermittent heat exposure more seriously suppresses the spermatogenesis compared to consecutive heat exposure. This may be indicative for clinical infertility etiology analysis and the design of contraceptive methods based on heat stress.

Measurand transient signal suppressor

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, Richard J., Jr. (Inventor)

1994-01-01

A transient signal suppressor for use in a controls system which is adapted to respond to a change in a physical parameter whenever it crosses a predetermined threshold value in a selected direction of increasing or decreasing values with respect to the threshold value and is sustained for a selected discrete time interval is presented. The suppressor includes a sensor transducer for sensing the physical parameter and generating an electrical input signal whenever the sensed physical parameter crosses the threshold level in the selected direction. A manually operated switch is provided for adapting the suppressor to produce an output drive signal whenever the physical parameter crosses the threshold value in the selected direction of increasing or decreasing values. A time delay circuit is selectively adjustable for suppressing the transducer input signal for a preselected one of a plurality of available discrete suppression time and producing an output signal only if the input signal is sustained for a time greater than the selected suppression time. An electronic gate is coupled to receive the transducer input signal and the timer output signal and produce an output drive signal for energizing a control relay whenever the transducer input is a non-transient signal which is sustained beyond the selected time interval.

Fuel-pin cladding transient failure strain criterion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bard, F.E.; Duncan, D.R.; Hunter, C.W.

1983-01-01

A criterion for cladding failure based on accumulated strain was developed for mixed uranium-plutonium oxide fuel pins and used to interpret the calculated strain results from failed transient fuel pin experiments conducted in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility. The new STRAIN criterion replaced a stress-based criterion that depends on the DORN parameter and that incorrectly predicted fuel pin failure for transient tested fuel pins. This paper describes the STRAIN criterion and compares its prediction with those of the stress-based criterion

Multiobjective constraints for climate model parameter choices: Pragmatic Pareto fronts in CESM1

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.

2017-09-01

Global climate models (GCMs) are examples of high-dimensional input-output systems, where model output is a function of many variables, and an update in model physics commonly improves performance in one objective function (i.e., measure of model performance) at the expense of degrading another. Here concepts from multiobjective optimization in the engineering literature are used to investigate parameter sensitivity and optimization in the face of such trade-offs. A metamodeling technique called cut high-dimensional model representation (cut-HDMR) is leveraged in the context of multiobjective optimization to improve GCM simulation of the tropical Pacific climate, focusing on seasonal precipitation, column water vapor, and skin temperature. An evolutionary algorithm is used to solve for Pareto fronts, which are surfaces in objective function space along which trade-offs in GCM performance occur. This approach allows the modeler to visualize trade-offs quickly and identify the physics at play. In some cases, Pareto fronts are small, implying that trade-offs are minimal, optimal parameter value choices are more straightforward, and the GCM is well-functioning. In all cases considered here, the control run was found not to be Pareto-optimal (i.e., not on the front), highlighting an opportunity for model improvement through objectively informed parameter selection. Taylor diagrams illustrate that these improvements occur primarily in field magnitude, not spatial correlation, and they show that specific parameter updates can improve fields fundamental to tropical moist processes—namely precipitation and skin temperature—without significantly impacting others. These results provide an example of how basic elements of multiobjective optimization can facilitate pragmatic GCM tuning processes.

Relationship of liver stiffness and controlled attenuation parameter measured by transient elastography with diabetes mellitus in patients with chronic liver disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Jem Ma; Paik, Yong-Han; Kim, So Hyun; Lee, Jun Hee; Cho, Ju Yeon; Sohn, Won; Gwak, Geum-Youn; Choi, Moon Seok; Lee, Joon Hyeok; Koh, Kwang Cheol; Paik, Seung Woon; Yoo, Byung Chul

2014-08-01

High prevalence of diabetes mellitus in patients with liver cirrhosis has been reported in many studies. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship of hepatic fibrosis and steatosis assessed by transient elastography with diabetes in patients with chronic liver disease. The study population consisted of 979 chronic liver disease patients. Liver fibrosis and steatosis were assessed by liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) on transient elastography. Diabetes was diagnosed in 165 (16.9%) of 979 patients. The prevalence of diabetes had significant difference among the etiologies of chronic liver disease. Higher degrees of liver fibrosis and steatosis, assessed by LSM and CAP score, showed higher prevalence of diabetes (F0/1 [14%], F2/3 [18%], F4 [31%], Pdiabetes were hypertension (OR, 1.98; P=0.001), LSM F4 (OR, 1.86; P=0.010), male gender (OR, 1.60; P=0.027), and age>50 yr (OR, 1.52; P=0.046). The degree of hepatic fibrosis but not steatosis assessed by transient elastography has significant relationship with the prevalence of diabetes in patients with chronic liver disease.

Switching transients in a superconducting coil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, E.W.; Shimer, D.W.

1983-01-01

A study is made of the transients caused by the fast dump of large superconducting coils. Theoretical analysis, computer simulation, and actual measurements are used. Theoretical analysis can only be applied to the simplest of models. In the computer simulations two models are used, one in which the coil is divided into ten segments and another in which a single coil is employed. The circuit breaker that interrupts the current to the power supply, causing a fast dump, is represented by a time and current dependent conductance. Actual measurements are limited to measurements made incidental to performance tests on the MFTF Yin-yang coils. It is found that the breaker opening time is the critical factor in determining the size and shape of the transient. Instantaneous opening of the breaker causes a lightly damped transient with large amplitude voltages to ground. Increasing the opening time causes the transient to become a monopulse of decreasing amplitude. The voltages at the external terminals are determined by the parameters of the external circuit. For fast opening times the frequency depends on the dump resistor inductance, the circuit capacitance, and the amplitude on the coil current. For slower openings the dump resistor inductance and the current determine the amplitude of the voltage to ground at the terminals. Voltages to ground are less in the interior of the coil, where transients related to the parameters of the coil itself are observed

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

Fuel cladding mechanical properties for transient analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, G.D.; Hunter, C.W.; Hanson, J.E.

1976-01-01

Out-of-pile simulated transient tests have been conducted on irradiated fast-reactor fuel pin cladding specimens at heating rates of 10 0 F/s (5.6 0 K/s) and 200 0 F/s (111 0 K/s) to generate mechanical property information for use in describing cladding behavior during off-normal events. Mechanical property data were then analyzed, applying the Larson-Miller Parameter to the effects of heating rate and neutron fluence. Data from simulated transient tests on TREAT-tested fuel pins demonstrate that Plant Protective System termination of 3$/s transients prevents significant damage to cladding. The breach opening produced during simulated transient testing is shown to decrease in size with increasing neutron fluence

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. A. Schmidt

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Model calibration (or tuning is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientific missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. However, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.

The excess radio background and fast radio transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kehayias, John; Kephart, Thomas W.; Weiler, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

In the last few years ARCADE 2, combined with older experiments, has detected an additional radio background, measured as a temperature and ranging in frequency from 22 MHz to 10 GHz, not accounted for by known radio sources and the cosmic microwave background. One type of source which has not been considered in the radio background is that of fast transients (those with event times much less than the observing time). We present a simple estimate, and a more detailed calculation, for the contribution of radio transients to the diffuse background. As a timely example, we estimate the contribution from the recently-discovered fast radio bursts (FRBs). Although their contribution is likely 6 or 7 orders of magnitude too small (though there are large uncertainties in FRB parameters) to account for the ARCADE 2 excess, our development is general and so can be applied to any fast transient sources, discovered or yet to be discovered. We estimate parameter values necessary for transient sources to noticeably contribute to the radio background

Combining wood anatomy and stable isotope variations in a 600-year multi-parameter climate reconstruction from Corsican black pine

Science.gov (United States)

Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim

2014-10-01

We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.

Studies on an Electromagnetic Transient Model of Offshore Wind Turbines and Lightning Transient Overvoltage Considering Lightning Channel Wave Impedance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In recent years, with the rapid development of offshore wind turbines (WTs, the problem of lightning strikes has become more and more prominent. In order to reduce the failure rate caused by the transient overvoltage of lightning struck offshore WTs, the influencing factors and the response rules of transient overvoltage are analyzed. In this paper, a new integrated electromagnetic transient model of offshore WTs is established by using the numerical calculation method of the electromagnetic field first. Then, based on the lightning model and considering the impedance of the lightning channel, the transient overvoltage of lightning is analyzed. Last, the electromagnetic transient model of offshore WTs is simulated and analyzed by using the alternative transients program electro-magnetic transient program (ATP-EMTP software. The influence factors of lightning transient overvoltage are studied. The main influencing factors include the sea depth, the blade length, the tower height, the lightning flow parameters, the lightning strike point, and the blade rotation position. The simulation results show that the influencing factors mentioned above have different effects on the lightning transient overvoltage. The results of the study have some guiding significance for the design of the lightning protection of the engine room.

Predictable anomalies of process parameters on failure mode of internal structures in RPV by transient thermal-hydraulic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maki, Akira; Mori, Michitsugu; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Konishi, Hideo

1997-01-01

A study has been conducted to evaluate how process parameters will exhibit the change in the event of the troubles related to reactor internal by using transient thermal-hydraulic analysis codes (RETRAN3D-MOD002, etc.). In the present study, the following six events are analytically investigated: 1) a leak from the upper plenum; 2) a leak from the middle part of a shroud; 3) a leak from the lower plenum; 4) a leak from the riser pipe for the jet-pump; 5) the blockage of the jet-pump nozzle; and 6) a leak from the jet-pump diffuser. The results by analyses indicated that the leak from the upper plenum resulted in increasing in the inlet temperature of primary loop recirculation (PLR) and in the differential pressure at the core support plate, and decreasing in the neutron flux (reactor power). Similar analyses were made for the five other events to identify the pattern of relevant process parameter variation in each event. (author)

Information content of transient synchrotron radiation in tokamak plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisch, N.J.; Kritz, A.H.

1989-04-01

A brief, deliberate, perturbation of hot tokamak electrons produces a transient, synchrotron radiation signal, in frequency-time space, with impressive informative potential on plasma parameters; for example, the dc toroidal electric field, not available by other means, may be measurably. Very fast algorithms have been developed, making tractable a statistical analysis that compares essentially all parameter sets that might possibly explain the transient signal. By simulating data numerically, we can estimate the informative worth of data prior to obtaining it. 20 refs., 2 figs

A new transiently chaotic flow with ellipsoid equilibria

Science.gov (United States)

Panahi, Shirin; Aram, Zainab; Jafari, Sajad; Pham, Viet-Thanh; Volos, Christos; Rajagopal, Karthikeyan

2018-03-01

In this article, a simple autonomous transiently chaotic flow with cubic nonlinearities is proposed. This system represents some unusual features such as having a surface of equilibria. We shall describe some dynamical properties and behaviours of this system in terms of eigenvalue structures, bifurcation diagrams, time series, and phase portraits. Various behaviours of this system such as periodic and transiently chaotic dynamics can be shown by setting special parameters in proper values. Our system belongs to a newly introduced category of transiently chaotic systems: systems with hidden attractors. Transiently chaotic behaviour of our proposed system has been implemented and tested by the OrCAD-PSpise software. We have found a proper qualitative similarity between circuit and simulation results.

Wide Field Radio Transient Surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Geoffrey

2011-04-01

The time domain of the radio wavelength sky has been only sparsely explored. Nevertheless, serendipitous discovery and results from limited surveys indicate that there is much to be found on timescales from nanoseconds to years and at wavelengths from meters to millimeters. These observations have revealed unexpected phenomena such as rotating radio transients and coherent pulses from brown dwarfs. Additionally, archival studies have revealed an unknown class of radio transients without radio, optical, or high-energy hosts. The new generation of centimeter-wave radio telescopes such as the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) will exploit wide fields of view and flexible digital signal processing to systematically explore radio transient parameter space, as well as lay the scientific and technical foundation for the Square Kilometer Array. Known unknowns that will be the target of future transient surveys include orphan gamma-ray burst afterglows, radio supernovae, tidally-disrupted stars, flare stars, and magnetars. While probing the variable sky, these surveys will also provide unprecedented information on the static radio sky. I will present results from three large ATA surveys (the Fly's Eye survey, the ATA Twenty CM Survey (ATATS), and the Pi GHz Survey (PiGSS)) and several small ATA transient searches. Finally, I will discuss the landscape and opportunities for future instruments at centimeter wavelengths.

Application of all relevant feature selection for failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Paja, W.; Wrzesień, M.; Niemiec, R.; Rudnicki, W. R.

2015-07-01

The climate models are extremely complex pieces of software. They reflect best knowledge on physical components of the climate, nevertheless, they contain several parameters, which are too weakly constrained by observations, and can potentially lead to a crash of simulation. Recently a study by Lucas et al. (2013) has shown that machine learning methods can be used for predicting which combinations of parameters can lead to crash of simulation, and hence which processes described by these parameters need refined analyses. In the current study we reanalyse the dataset used in this research using different methodology. We confirm the main conclusion of the original study concerning suitability of machine learning for prediction of crashes. We show, that only three of the eight parameters indicated in the original study as relevant for prediction of the crash are indeed strongly relevant, three other are relevant but redundant, and two are not relevant at all. We also show that the variance due to split of data between training and validation sets has large influence both on accuracy of predictions and relative importance of variables, hence only cross-validated approach can deliver robust prediction of performance and relevance of variables.

Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. van Huissteden

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming

Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Berrittella, C.; van Huissteden, J.

2011-10-01

Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax), plant transport rate (Vtransp), maximum rooting depth (Zroot) and root exudation rate (fex). Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of

Deformation modeling and the strain transient dip test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, W.B.; Rohde, R.W.; Swearengen, J.C.

1980-01-01

Recent efforts in material deformation modeling reveal a trend toward unifying creep and plasticity with a single rate-dependent formulation. While such models can describe actual material deformation, most require a number of different experiments to generate model parameter information. Recently, however, a new model has been proposed in which most of the requisite constants may be found by examining creep transients brought about through abrupt changes in creep stress (strain transient dip test). The critical measurement in this test is the absence of a resolvable creep rate after a stress drop. As a consequence, the result is extraordinarily sensitive to strain resolution as well as machine mechanical response. This paper presents the design of a machine in which these spurious effects have been minimized and discusses the nature of the strain transient dip test using the example of aluminum. It is concluded that the strain transient dip test is not useful as the primary test for verifying any micromechanical model of deformation. Nevertheless, if a model can be developed which is verifiable by other experimentts, data from a dip test machine may be used to generate model parameters

Modelling of the thermal parameters of high-power linear laser-diode arrays. Two-dimensional transient model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bezotosnyi, V V; Kumykov, Kh Kh

1998-01-01

A two-dimensional transient thermal model of an injection laser is developed. This model makes it possible to analyse the temperature profiles in pulsed and cw stripe lasers with an arbitrary width of the stripe contact, and also in linear laser-diode arrays. This can be done for any durations and repetition rates of the pump pulses. The model can also be applied to two-dimensional laser-diode arrays operating quasicontinuously. An analysis is reported of the influence of various structural parameters of a diode array on the thermal regime of a single laser. The temperature distributions along the cavity axis are investigated for different variants of mounting a crystal on a heat sink. It is found that the temperature drop along the cavity length in cw and quasi-cw laser diodes may exceed 20%. (lasers)

Nuclear EMP: key suppression device parameters for EMP hardening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durgin, D.L.; Brown, R.M.

1975-03-01

The electrical transients induced by EMP exhibit unique characteristics which differ considerably from transients associated with other phenomena such as lightning, switching, and circuit malfunctions. The suppression techniques developed to handle more common transients, though not necessarily the same devices, can be used for EMP damage protection. The suppression devices used for circuit level EMP protection are referred to as Terminal Protection Devices (TPD). Little detailed data describing the response of TPD's to EMP-related transients have been published. While most vendors publish specifications for TPD performance, there is little standardization of parameters and TPD response models are not available. This lack of parameter standardization has resulted in a proliferation of test data that is sometimes conflicting and often not directly comparable. This paper derives and/or defines a consistent set of parameters based on EMP circuit hardening requirements and on measurable component parameters and is concerned only with use of TPD's to prevent permanent damage. Three sets of parameters pertaining to pertinent TPD functional characteristics were defined as follows: standby parameters, protection parameters, and failure parameters. These parameters are used to evaluate a representative sample of TPD's and the results are presented in matrix form to facilitate the selection of devices for specific hardening problems

Environmental parameters altered by climate change affect the activity of soil microorganisms involved in bioremediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Alkorta, Itziar; Epelde, Lur; Garbisu, Carlos

2017-10-16

Bioremediation, based on the use of microorganisms to break down pollutants, can be very effective at reducing soil pollution. But the climate change we are now experiencing is bound to have an impact on bioremediation performance, since the activity and degrading abilities of soil microorganisms are dependent on a series of environmental parameters that are themselves being altered by climate change, such as soil temperature, moisture, amount of root exudates, etc. Many climate-induced effects on soil microorganisms occur indirectly through changes in plant growth and physiology derived from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures, the alteration of precipitation patterns, etc., with a concomitant effect on rhizoremediation performance (i.e. the plant-assisted microbial degradation of pollutants in the rhizosphere). But these effects are extremely complex and mediated by processes such as acclimation and adaptation. Besides, soil microorganisms form complex networks of interactions with a myriad of organisms from many taxonomic groups that will also be affected by climate change, further complicating data interpretation. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

Science.gov (United States)

Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

2014-12-01

Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

Effects of pellet-to-cladding gap design parameters on the reliability of high burnup PWR fuel rods under steady state and transient conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tas, Fatma Burcu; Ergun, Sule

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Fuel performance of a typical Pressurized Water Reactor rod is analyzed. • Steady state fuel rod behavior is examined to see the effects of pellet to cladding gap thickness and gap gas pressure. • Transient fuel rod behavior is examined to see the effects of pellet to cladding gap thickness and gap gas pressure. • The optimum pellet to cladding gap thickness and gap gas pressure values of the simulated fuel are determined. • The effects of pellet to cladding gap design parameters on nuclear fuel reliability are examined. - Abstract: As an important improvement in the light water nuclear reactor operations, the nuclear fuel burnup rate is increased in recent decades and this increase causes heavier duty for the nuclear fuel. Since the high burnup fuel is exposed to very high thermal and mechanical stresses and since it operates in an environment with high radiation for about 18 month cycles, it carries the risk of losing its integrity. In this study; it is aimed to determine the effects of pellet–cladding gap thickness and gap pressure on reliability of high burnup nuclear fuel in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) under steady state operation conditions and suggest optimum values for the examined parameters only and validate these suggestions for a transient condition. In the presented study, fuel performance was analyzed by examining the effects of pellet–cladding gap thickness and gap pressure on the integrity of high burnup fuels. This work is carried out for a typical Westinghouse type PWR fuel. The steady state conditions were modeled and simulated with FRAPCON-3.4a steady state fuel performance code and the FRAPTRAN-1.4 fuel transient code was used to calculate transient fuel behavior. The analysis included the changes in the important nuclear fuel design limitations such as the centerline temperature, cladding stress, strain and oxidation with the change in pellet–cladding gap thickness and initial pellet–cladding gap gas

Resilience of Key Biological Parameters of the Senegalese Flat Sardinella to Overfishing and Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Ba, Kamarel; Thiaw, Modou; Lazar, Najih; Sarr, Alassane; Brochier, Timothée; Ndiaye, Ismaïla; Faye, Alioune; Sadio, Oumar; Panfili, Jacques; Thiaw, Omar Thiom; Brehmer, Patrice

2016-01-01

The stock of the Senegalese flat sardinella, Sardinella maderensis, is highly exploited in Senegal, West Africa. Its growth and reproduction parameters are key biological indicators for improving fisheries management. This study reviewed these parameters using landing data from small-scale fisheries in Senegal and literature information dated back more than 25 years. Age was estimated using length-frequency data to calculate growth parameters and assess the growth performance index. With global climate change there has been an increase in the average sea surface temperature along the Senegalese coast but the length-weight parameters, sex ratio, size at first sexual maturity, period of reproduction and condition factor of S. maderensis have not changed significantly. The above parameters of S. maderensis have hardly changed, despite high exploitation and fluctuations in environmental conditions that affect the early development phases of small pelagic fish in West Africa. This lack of plasticity of the species regarding of the biological parameters studied should be considered when planning relevant fishery management plans.

Atucha I nuclear power plant transients analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castano, J.; Schivo, M.

1987-01-01

A program for the transients simulation thermohydraulic calculation without loss of coolant (KWU-ENACE development) to evaluate Atucha I nuclear power plant behaviour is used. The program includes systems simulation and nuclear power plants control bonds with real parameters. The calculation results show a good agreement with the output 'protocol' of various transients of the nuclear power plant, keeping the error, in general, lesser than ± 10% from the variation of the nuclear power plant's state variables. (Author)

Land use change on climate parameters at Samin subwatershed in Central Java, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Sutarno; Komariah; Gunawan, T.; Purnomo, D.; Suntoro

2018-03-01

The Samin sub-watershed (SSW) is one of the critical watersheds in Indonesia which need conservation. The identification of land-use/land-cover changes (LUCC) can help in deciding the priority of conservation areas as well as limiting the widespread of critical lands in the watershed, which can contribute to climate change. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of land use change on climate parameters, i.e. precipitation, air temperature and relative air humidity. The method is by using the descriptive explorative. The study employed Indonesian topographic map and Landsat's imageries of 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. The climate data from 1996 to 2016 were obtained from surroundings weather station. Data were analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and SPSS. The results showed that land use was dominated by rice fields 22,552.83 ha (69.20%), and converted to non-agricultural lands 165.05 hectares/year for the last 20 years. Forest area decreased 65.8 ha/year, and settlement (housing and industrial estates) increased 253.87 ha/year (11.07%). The statistical analysis resulted in a negative relationship between forest area and air temperature and, but no significant correlation with rainfall.

Wood anatomical parameters of lowland European oak and Scots pine as proxies for climate reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Balanzategui, Daniel; Heußner, Karl-Uwe; Wazny, Tomasz; Helle, Gerd; Heinrich, Ingo

2017-04-01

Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions from the temperate lowlands worldwide are largely missing due to diffuse climate signals so far found in tree-ring widths. This motivated us to concentrate our efforts on the wood anatomies of two common European tree species, the European oak (Quercus robur) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). We combined core samples of living trees with archaeological wood from northern Germany and Poland. We measured approx. 46,000 earlywood oak vessels of 34 trees covering the period AD 1500 to 2016 and approx. 7.5 million pine tracheid cells of 41 trees covering the period AD 1300 to 2010. First climate growth analyses indicate that both oak earlywood vessel and pine tracheid parameters contain climate signals which are different and more significant than those found in tree-ring widths. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed at EGU for the first time.

MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

1992-01-01

An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO 2 doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions, and transient

VO2 OFF TRANSIENT KINETICS IN EXTREME INTENSITY SWIMMING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Sousa

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Inconsistencies about dynamic asymmetry between the on- and off- transient responses in oxygen uptake are found in the literature. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to characterize the oxygen uptake off-transient kinetics during a maximal 200-m front crawl effort, as examining the degree to which the on/off regularity of the oxygen uptake kinetics response was preserved. Eight high level male swimmers performed a 200-m front crawl at maximal speed during which oxygen uptake was directly measured through breath-by-breath oxymetry (averaged every 5 s. This apparatus was connected to the swimmer by a low hydrodynamic resistance respiratory snorkel and valve system. Results: The on- and off-transient phases were symmetrical in shape (mirror image once they were adequately fitted by a single-exponential regression models, and no slow component for the oxygen uptake response was developed. Mean (± SD peak oxygen uptake was 69.0 (± 6.3 mL·kg-1·min-1, significantly correlated with time constant of the off- transient period (r = 0.76, p < 0.05 but not with any of the other oxygen off-transient kinetic parameters studied. A direct relationship between time constant of the off-transient period and mean swimming speed of the 200-m (r = 0.77, p < 0.05, and with the amplitude of the fast component of the effort period (r = 0.72, p < 0.05 were observed. The mean amplitude and time constant of the off-transient period values were significantly greater than the respective on- transient. In conclusion, although an asymmetry between the on- and off kinetic parameters was verified, both the 200-m effort and the respectively recovery period were better characterized by a single exponential regression model

Analysis of core uncovery time in Kuosheng station blackout transient with MELCOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, S.J.; Chien, C.S.

1996-01-01

The MELCOR code, developed by the Sandia National Laboratories, is capable of simulating severe accident phenomena of nuclear power plants. Core uncovery time is an important parameter in the probabilistic risk assessment. However, many MELCOR users do not generate the initial conditions in a station blackout (SBO) transient analysis. Thus, achieving reliable core uncovery time is difficult. The core uncovery time for the Kuosheng nuclear power plant during an SBO transient is analyzed. First, full-power steady-state conditions are generated with the application of a developed self-initialization algorithm. Then the response of the SBO transient up to core uncovery is simulated. The effects of key parameters including the initialization process and the reactor feed pump (RFP) coastdown time on the core uncovery time are analyzed. The initialization process is the most important parameter that affects the core uncovery time. Because SBO transient analysis, the correct initial conditions must be generated to achieve a reliable core uncovery time. The core uncovery time is also sensitive to the RFP coastdown time. A correct time constant is required

Calculation of Lightning Transient Responses on Wind Turbine Towers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoqing Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An efficient method is proposed in this paper for calculating lightning transient responses on wind turbine towers. In the proposed method, the actual tower body is simplified as a multiconductor grid in the shape of cylinder. A set of formulas are given for evaluating the circuit parameters of the branches in the multiconductor grid. On the basis of the circuit parameters, the multiconductor grid is further converted into an equivalent circuit. The circuit equation is built in frequency-domain to take into account the effect of the frequency-dependent characteristic of the resistances and inductances on lightning transients. The lightning transient responses can be obtained by using the discrete Fourier transform with exponential sampling to take the inverse transform of the frequency-domain solution of the circuit equation. A numerical example has been given for examining the applicability of the proposed method.

Development of MCP transient operation strategy for the SMART-P

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, S. E.; Choi, B. S.; Kang, H. O.; Yoon, J. H.; Ji, S. K.

2003-01-01

SMART-P MCP(Main Coolant Pump) transient operation strategies are developed. A Modular Modeling System (MMS) computer code is used for the evaluation of the developed operation strategies. In the SMART-P, normal operating modes are classified into MCP high speed(3600 rpm) mode and MCP low speed mode. Also, natural circulation mode is defined as a performance test case. MCP operation transients occur when changing modes from one to another, and system parameters(core power, system pressure, temperature) are having transients. These transients affect on system performance and, in some cases, limit system operation. In this study, MCP operation strategies are developed and obtained acceptable results

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Betancourt, M.

2015-01-01

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Betancourt, M., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

2015-02-10

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

Transient dynamic crack propagation in gas pressurised pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caldis, E.S.; Owen, D.R.J.; Taylor, C.

1983-01-01

The prime limitation of dynamic fracture analysis is the lack of a fundamental crack advance theory which can be easily and economically adopted for use with numerical models. The necessity for the inclusion of inertia effects in the solution of certain problem classes is now evident, but most transient dynamic fracture models considered to date include (of necessity) some intuitive/empirical parameters with a frequent need of a priori knowledge of experimental solutions. The particular problem considered in this study is Mode I transient dynamic crack propagation in gas pressurised pipelines. The steel pipe is modelled using thin shell Semiloof finite elements and its transient response is coupled to a one-dimensional finite element model of the compressible gas equations, incorporating a lateral gas flow parameter. The pipe is governed by the usual dynamic equilibrium equation which is discretised in the time domain by a central difference explicit algorithm. The compressible gas response is modelled by the Continuity and Momentum equations and time discretisation is performed by means of a fully backward difference scheme in time. (orig./GL)

Performance of extended and unscented Kalman filters for state and parameter estimation of a greenhouse climate model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

López-Cruz, I.L.; Beveren, Van P.J.M.; Mourik, Van S.; Henten, Van E.J.

2017-01-01

In dynamic modeling of the greenhouse climate, prediction errors are a significant issue due to uncertainties in initial state values, input variables, model parameters and model structure, all propagating in time in a nonlinear way. We investigated a data assimilation approach using two non-linear

High temperature transient deformation of mixed oxide fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slagle, O.D.

1986-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present recent experimental results on fuel creep under transient conditions at high temperatures. The effect of temperature, stress, heating rate, density and grain size were considered. An empirical formulation is derived for the relationship between strain, stress, temperature and heating rate. This relationship provides a means for incorporating stress relief into the analysis of fuel-cladding interaction during an overpower transient. The effect of sample density and initial grain size is considered by varying the sample parameters. Previously derived steady-state creep relationships for the high temperature creep of mixed oxide fuel were combined with the time dependency of creep found for UO 2 to calculate a transient creep relationship for mixed oxide fuel. These calculated results were found to be in good agreement with the measured high temperature transient creep results

Response of steam-water mixtures to pressure transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, L.M.

1985-01-01

During the transition phase of a hypothetical core-disruptive accident in a liquid-metal fast breeder reactor, melting fuel-steel mixtures may begin to boil, resulting in a two-phase mixture of molten reactor fuel and steel vapor. Dispersal of this mixture by pressure transients may prevent recriticality of the fuel material. This paper describes the results of a series of experiments that investigated the response of two-phase mixtures to pressure transients. Simulant fluids (steam/water) were used in a transparent 10.2-cm-dia, 63.5-cm-long acrylic tube. The pressure transient was provided by releasing pressurized nitrogen from a supply tank. The data obtained are in the form of pressure-time records and high-speed movies. The varied parameters are initial void fraction (10% and 40%) and transient pressure magnitude (3.45 and 310 kPa)

Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity.

The application of model with lumped parameters for transient condition analyses of NPP; Primena modela sa koncentrisanim parametrima za analize pelaznih stanja nukleane elektrane

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankovic, B [Institut GOSA, Beograd (Yugoslavia); Stevanovic, V [Masinski fakultet, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

1985-07-01

The transient behaviour of NPP Krsko during the accident of pressurizer spray valve stuck open has been simulated y lumped parameters model of the PWR coolant system components, developed at the faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade. The elementary volumes which are characterised by the process and state parameters, and by junctions which are characterised by the geometrical and flow parameters are basic structure of physical model. The process parameters obtained by the model RESI, show qualitative agreement with the measured valves, in a degree in which the actions of reactor safety engineered system and emergency core cooling system are adequately modelled; in spite of the elementary physical model structure and only the modelling of thermal process in reactor core and equilibrium conditions of pressurizer and steam generator. The pressurizer pressure and liquid level predicted by the non-equilibrium pressurizer model SOP show good agreement until the HIPS (high pressure pumps) is activated. (author)

Application of all-relevant feature selection for the failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Paja, Wiesław; Wrzesien, Mariusz; Niemiec, Rafał; Rudnicki, Witold R.

2016-03-01

Climate models are extremely complex pieces of software. They reflect the best knowledge on the physical components of the climate; nevertheless, they contain several parameters, which are too weakly constrained by observations, and can potentially lead to a simulation crashing. Recently a study by Lucas et al. (2013) has shown that machine learning methods can be used for predicting which combinations of parameters can lead to the simulation crashing and hence which processes described by these parameters need refined analyses. In the current study we reanalyse the data set used in this research using different methodology. We confirm the main conclusion of the original study concerning the suitability of machine learning for the prediction of crashes. We show that only three of the eight parameters indicated in the original study as relevant for prediction of the crash are indeed strongly relevant, three others are relevant but redundant and two are not relevant at all. We also show that the variance due to the split of data between training and validation sets has a large influence both on the accuracy of predictions and on the relative importance of variables; hence only a cross-validated approach can deliver a robust prediction of performance and relevance of variables.

Measurements of thermal parameters of solar modules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Górecki, K; Krac, E

2016-01-01

In the paper the methods of measuring thermal parameters of photovoltaic panels - transient thermal impedance and the absorption factor of light-radiation are presented. The manner of realising these methods is described and the results of measurements of the considered thermal parameters of selected photovoltaic panels are presented. The influence of such selected factors as a type of the investigated panel and its mounting manner on transient thermal impedance of the considered panels is also discussed. (paper)

Critical heat flux phenomena in flow boiling during step wise and ramp wise power transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Celata, G.P.; Cumo, M.; D'Annibale, F.; Farello, G.E.; Abou Said, S.

1987-01-01

The present paper deals with the results of an experimental investigation of the forced flow critical heat flux during power transients in a vertically heated channel. Experiments were carried out with a Refrigerant-12 1oop employing a circular test section which was electrically and uniformly heated. The power transients were performed with the step-wise and ramp-wise increase of the power to the test section. The test parameters included several values of the initial power (before the transient) and the final power (at the end of the transient) in the case of step-wise transients and the slope of the ramp in the case of ramp-wise transients. The pressure and specific mass flow rate, which were kept constant during the power transient,were varied from 1.2 to 2.7 MPa and 850 to 1500 Kg/sm 2 , respectively. Correlations of the experimental data for the time-to-crisis in terms of the independent parameters of the system are also proposed and verified for different values of pressure,mass flow rate, and inlet subcooling

Effect of automatic recirculation flow control on the transient response for Lungmen ABWR plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tzang, Y.-C., E-mail: yctzang@aec.gov.t [National Tsing Hua University, Department of Engineering and System Science, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Chiang, R.-F.; Ferng, Y.-M.; Pei, B.-S. [National Tsing Hua University, Department of Engineering and System Science, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China)

2009-12-15

In this study the automatic mode of the recirculation flow control system (RFCS) for the Lungmen ABWR plant has been modeled and incorporated into the basic RETRAN-02 system model. The integrated system model is then used to perform the analyses for the two transients in which the automatic RFCS is involved. The two transients selected are: (1) one reactor internal pump (RIP) trip, and (2) loss of feedwater heating. In general, the integrated system model can predict well the response of key system parameters, including neutron flux, steam dome pressure, heat flux, RIP flow, core inlet flow, feedwater flow, steam flow, and reactor water level. The transients are also analyzed for manual RFCS case, between the automatic RFCS and the manual RFCS cases, comparisons of the transient response for the key system parameter show that the difference of transient response can be clearly identified. Also, the results show that the DELTACPR (delta critical power ratio) for the transients analyzed may not be less limiting for the automatic RFCS case under certain combination of control system settings.

Thermal-hydraulic analysis of PWR cores in transient condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva Galetti, M.R. da.

1984-01-01

A calculational methodology for thermal - hydraulic analysis of PWR cores under steady-state and transient condition was selected and made available to users. An evaluation of the COBRA-IIIP/MIT code, used for subchannel analysis, was done through comparison of the code results with experimental data on steady state and transient conditions. As a result, a comparison study allowing spatial and temporal localization of critical heat flux was obtained. A sensitivity study of the simulation model to variations in some empirically determined parameter is also presented. Two transient cases from Angra I FSAR were analysed, showing the evolution of minimum DNBR with time. (Author) [pt

An optimally tuned ensemble of the "eb_go_gs" configuration of GENIE: parameter sensitivity and bifurcations in the Atlantic overturning circulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Marsh

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The key physical parameters for the "eb_go_gs" configuration of version 2.7.4 of GENIE, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC, are tuned using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. An ensemble of 90 parameter sets is tuned using two ocean and two atmospheric state variables as targets. These are "Pareto-optimal", representing a range of trade-offs between the four tuning targets. For the leading five parameter sets, simulations are evaluated alongside a simulation with untuned "default" parameters, comparing selected variables and diagnostics that describe the state of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Further experiments are undertaken with these selected parameter sets to compare equilibrium climate sensitivities and transient climate responses. The pattern of warming under doubled CO2 is strongly shaped by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC, while the pattern and rate of warming under rising CO2 is closely linked to changing sea ice extent. One of the five tuned parameter sets is identified as marginally optimal, and the objective function (error landscape is further analysed in the vicinity of the tuned values of this parameter set. "Cliffs" along some dimensions motivate closer inspection of corresponding variations in the AMOC. This reveals that bifurcations in the AMOC are highly sensitive to parameters that are not typically associated with MOC stability. Specifically, the state of the AMOC is sensitive to parameters governing the wind-driven circulation and atmospheric heat transport. For the GENIE configuration presented here, the marginally optimal parameter set is recommended for single simulations, although the leading five parameter sets may be used in ensemble mode to admit a constrained degree of parametric uncertainty in climate prediction.

Transient chaos in the Lorenz-type map with periodic forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslennikov, Oleg V; Nekorkin, Vladimir I; Kurths, Jürgen

2018-03-01

We consider a case study of perturbing a system with a boundary crisis of a chaotic attractor by periodic forcing. In the static case, the system exhibits persistent chaos below the critical value of the control parameter but transient chaos above the critical value. We discuss what happens to the system and particularly to the transient chaotic dynamics if the control parameter periodically oscillates. We find a non-exponential decaying behavior of the survival probability function, study the impact of the forcing frequency and amplitude on the escape rate, analyze the phase-space image of the observed dynamics, and investigate the influence of initial conditions.

Transient selection in multicellular immune networks

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanchenko, M. V.

2011-03-01

We analyze the dynamics of a multi-clonotype naive T-cell population competing for survival signals from antigen-presenting cells. We find that this competition provides with an efficacious selection of clonotypes, making the less able and more repetitive get extinct. We uncover the scaling principles for large systems the extinction rate obeys and calibrate the model parameters to their experimental counterparts. For the first time, we estimate the physiological values of the T-cell receptor-antigen presentation profile recognition probability and T-cell clonotypes niche overlap. We demonstrate that, while the ultimate state is a stable fixed point, sequential transients dominate the dynamics over large timescales that may span over years, if not decades, in real time. We argue that what is currently viewed as "homeostasis" is a complex sequential transient process, while being quasi-stationary in the total number of T-cells only. The discovered type of sequential transient dynamics in large random networks is a novel alternative to the stable heteroclinic channel mechanism.

Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions, and

Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions

Status report for anticipated transients without scram for Combustion Engineering reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-01-01

The NRC staff review of Combustion ATWS analyses included the anticipated transients expected to occur, the initial conditions and system parameters assumed in the analyses, the reliability of systems, the analytical techniques, the results of transient analysis of ATWS events and the design of the Reactor Protection System. Using the requirements of WASH-1270 as a guideline, the staff reviewed each relevant aspect of the Combustion model and analysis. The discussion of anticipated transients is presented, and the initial conditions, system parameters, and operating systems assumed in the analyses of these transients are discussed. The analytical techniques and computer programs are reviewed. An independent calculation conducted by the staff using the RELAP-3B code to determine the pressure within the reactor coolant pressure boundary during a complete loss of main feedwater ATWS event is described. A set of standard problems is defined for all pressurized water reactor vendors and the Regulatory staff to insure acceptability of computer codes used in all systems transient analyses. The model for calculating water discharge through primary valves is described. The comparison of the Combustion analyses to the requirements of WASH-1270 is presented. Certain outstanding issues are identified which require that Combustion or the applicant provide additional information or modify existing designs

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Static and transient beam loading of a synchrotron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, S.Y.; Weng, W.T.

1992-01-01

In a synchrotron, when the beam induced current is comparable to the driver current, the RF cavity is subjected to beam loading perturbation and corrective steps have to be implemented to regain beam stability. In this paper, the static and transient beam loading will be studied. We first discuss the static beam loading, which includes the cavity detuning condition, the stability condition, and the generator power dissipation. The beam current induced beam phase deviation is used as criterion to study the transient beam loading. The upgraded and the old AGS RF system parameters are used as an example to demonstrate how to choose cavity and generator parameters to satisfy the stability requirements under the beam loading. The dynamic models for the beam loading with beam control, and the beam loading with fast power amplifier feedback are presented and analyzed. It is shown that the beam phase and radial feedbacks alone are insufficient for the transient beam loading compensation, but the fast power amplifier feedback can provide effective correction on the beam loading. The limitation of the fast feedback and the beam loading with tuning and AVC loops are also discussed

NODAL3 Sensitivity Analysis for NEACRP 3D LWR Core Transient Benchmark (PWR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Surian Pinem

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports the results of sensitivity analysis of the multidimension, multigroup neutron diffusion NODAL3 code for the NEACRP 3D LWR core transient benchmarks (PWR. The code input parameters covered in the sensitivity analysis are the radial and axial node sizes (the number of radial node per fuel assembly and the number of axial layers, heat conduction node size in the fuel pellet and cladding, and the maximum time step. The output parameters considered in this analysis followed the above-mentioned core transient benchmarks, that is, power peak, time of power peak, power, averaged Doppler temperature, maximum fuel centerline temperature, and coolant outlet temperature at the end of simulation (5 s. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the radial node size and maximum time step give a significant effect on the transient parameters, especially the time of power peak, for the HZP and HFP conditions. The number of ring divisions for fuel pellet and cladding gives negligible effect on the transient solutions. For productive work of the PWR transient analysis, based on the present sensitivity analysis results, we recommend NODAL3 users to use 2×2 radial nodes per assembly, 1×18 axial layers per assembly, the maximum time step of 10 ms, and 9 and 1 ring divisions for fuel pellet and cladding, respectively.

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

Science.gov (United States)

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios; Robbins, Gary A.

2013-01-01

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Predictive modeling of transient storage and nutrient uptake: Implications for stream restoration

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Ben L.; Hondzo, Miki; Harvey, Judson W.

2010-01-01

This study examined two key aspects of reactive transport modeling for stream restoration purposes: the accuracy of the nutrient spiraling and transient storage models for quantifying reach-scale nutrient uptake, and the ability to quantify transport parameters using measurements and scaling techniques in order to improve upon traditional conservative tracer fitting methods. Nitrate (NO3–) uptake rates inferred using the nutrient spiraling model underestimated the total NO3– mass loss by 82%, which was attributed to the exclusion of dispersion and transient storage. The transient storage model was more accurate with respect to the NO3– mass loss (±20%) and also demonstrated that uptake in the main channel was more significant than in storage zones. Conservative tracer fitting was unable to produce transport parameter estimates for a riffle-pool transition of the study reach, while forward modeling of solute transport using measured/scaled transport parameters matched conservative tracer breakthrough curves for all reaches. Additionally, solute exchange between the main channel and embayment surface storage zones was quantified using first-order theory. These results demonstrate that it is vital to account for transient storage in quantifying nutrient uptake, and the continued development of measurement/scaling techniques is needed for reactive transport modeling of streams with complex hydraulic and geomorphic conditions.

Climate indices of Iran under climate change

OpenAIRE

alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

2009-01-01

Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

Relaxation process of coherent transients in the presence of an adjacent strongly driven transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Xiaomin; Yang Lijun; Li Xiaoli; Zhang Lianshui; Han Li; Guo Qinglin; Fu Guangsheng

2007-01-01

Coherent transient occurs when a two-level transition is subjected to pulsed laser excitation. The relaxation process of coherent transient depends on both the longitudinal and transverse relaxation parameters of the two-level transition, which is related to the population and coherence decay rates. In this paper we study relaxation process of a new type coherent transients observed by applying a pulsed laser excitation to a two-level transition in the presence of a second strong continuous-wave (cw) coherent field coupling one of the two levels to a third level, that is, in a three-level double-resonance configuration. The relaxation process of coherent transients is studied as a function of relaxation parameters of both the two-level transition excited by the pulsed laser field and the transition coupled by the cw laser field. It is shown that by involving a third level with coherent field the relaxation process of coherent transients of a two-level transition can be modified. Our study illustrates a new way of controlling relaxation process of coherent transients in a two-level transition by a second coherent laser and this has important implication for quantum information storage and quantum computing

Transient analysis for PWR reactor core using neural networks predictors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gueray, B.S.

2001-01-01

In this study, transient analysis for a Pressurized Water Reactor core has been performed. A lumped parameter approximation is preferred for that purpose, to describe the reactor core together with mechanism which play an important role in dynamic analysis. The dynamic behavior of the reactor core during transients is analyzed considering the transient initiating events, wich are an essential part of Safety Analysis Reports. several transients are simulated based on the employed core model. Simulation results are in accord the physical expectations. A neural network is developed to predict the future response of the reactor core, in advance. The neural network is trained using the simulation results of a number of representative transients. Structure of the neural network is optimized by proper selection of transfer functions for the neurons. Trained neural network is used to predict the future responses following an early observation of the changes in system variables. Estimated behaviour using the neural network is in good agreement with the simulation results for various for types of transients. Results of this study indicate that the designed neural network can be used as an estimator of the time dependent behavior of the reactor core under transient conditions

Transient flow analysis of integrated valve opening process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Xinming; Qin, Benke; Bo, Hanliang, E-mail: bohl@tsinghua.edu.cn; Xu, Xingxing

2017-03-15

Highlights: • The control rod hydraulic driving system (CRHDS) is a new type of built-in control rod drive technology and the integrated valve (IV) is the key control component. • The transient flow experiment induced by IV is conducted and the test results are analyzed to get its working mechanism. • The theoretical model of IV opening process is established and applied to get the changing rule of the transient flow characteristic parameters. - Abstract: The control rod hydraulic driving system (CRHDS) is a new type of built-in control rod drive technology and the IV is the key control component. The working principle of integrated valve (IV) is analyzed and the IV hydraulic experiment is conducted. There is transient flow phenomenon in the valve opening process. The theoretical model of IV opening process is established by the loop system control equations and boundary conditions. The valve opening boundary condition equation is established based on the IV three dimensional flow field analysis results and the dynamic analysis of the valve core movement. The model calculation results are in good agreement with the experimental results. On this basis, the model is used to analyze the transient flow under high temperature condition. The peak pressure head is consistent with the one under room temperature and the pressure fluctuation period is longer than the one under room temperature. Furthermore, the changing rule of pressure transients with the fluid and loop structure parameters is analyzed. The peak pressure increases with the flow rate and the peak pressure decreases with the increase of the valve opening time. The pressure fluctuation period increases with the loop pipe length and the fluctuation amplitude remains largely unchanged under different equilibrium pressure conditions. The research results lay the base for the vibration reduction analysis of the CRHDS.

Predicting lodgepole pine site index from climatic parameters in Alberta.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert A. Monserud; Shongming Huang; Yuqing. Yang

2006-01-01

We sought to evaluate the impact of climatic variables on site productivity of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm.) for the province of Alberta. Climatic data were obtained from the Alberta Climate Model, which is based on 30-year normals from the provincial weather station network. Mapping methods were based...

PWR system simulation and parameter estimation with neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akkurt, Hatice; Colak, Uener E-mail: uc@nuke.hacettepe.edu.tr

2002-11-01

A detailed nonlinear model for a typical PWR system has been considered for the development of simulation software. Each component in the system has been represented by appropriate differential equations. The SCILAB software was used for solving nonlinear equations to simulate steady-state and transient operational conditions. Overall system has been constructed by connecting individual components to each other. The validity of models for individual components and overall system has been verified. The system response against given transients have been analyzed. A neural network has been utilized to estimate system parameters during transients. Different transients have been imposed in training and prediction stages with neural networks. Reactor power and system reactivity during the transient event have been predicted by the neural network. Results show that neural networks estimations are in good agreement with the calculated response of the reactor system. The maximum errors are within {+-}0.254% for power and between -0.146 and 0.353% for reactivity prediction cases. Steam generator parameters, pressure and water level, are also successfully predicted by the neural network employed in this study. The noise imposed on the input parameters of the neural network deteriorates the power estimation capability whereas the reactivity estimation capability is not significantly affected.

PWR system simulation and parameter estimation with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkurt, Hatice; Colak, Uener

2002-01-01

A detailed nonlinear model for a typical PWR system has been considered for the development of simulation software. Each component in the system has been represented by appropriate differential equations. The SCILAB software was used for solving nonlinear equations to simulate steady-state and transient operational conditions. Overall system has been constructed by connecting individual components to each other. The validity of models for individual components and overall system has been verified. The system response against given transients have been analyzed. A neural network has been utilized to estimate system parameters during transients. Different transients have been imposed in training and prediction stages with neural networks. Reactor power and system reactivity during the transient event have been predicted by the neural network. Results show that neural networks estimations are in good agreement with the calculated response of the reactor system. The maximum errors are within ±0.254% for power and between -0.146 and 0.353% for reactivity prediction cases. Steam generator parameters, pressure and water level, are also successfully predicted by the neural network employed in this study. The noise imposed on the input parameters of the neural network deteriorates the power estimation capability whereas the reactivity estimation capability is not significantly affected

PC operated acoustic transient spectroscopy of deep levels in MIS structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bury, P.; Jamnicky, I.

1996-01-01

A new version of acoustic deep-level transient spectroscopy is presented to study the traps at the insulator-semiconductor interface. The acoustic deep-level transient spectroscopy uses an acoustoelectric response signal produced by the MIS structure interface when a longitudinal acoustic wave propagates through a structure. The acoustoelectric response signal is extremely sensitive to external conditions of the structure and reflects any changes in the charge distribution, connected also with charged traps. In comparison with previous version of acoustic deep-level transient spectroscopy that closely coincides with the principle of the original deep-level transient spectroscopy technique, the present technique is based on the computer-evaluated isothermal transients and represents an improved, more efficient and time saving technique. Many tests on the software used for calculation as well as on experimental setup have been performed. The improved acoustic deep-level transient spectroscopy method has been applied for the Si(p) MIS structures. The deep-level parameters as activation energy and capture cross-section have been determined. (authors)

Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

2010-06-15

A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

The influence of core material on transient thermal impedances in transformers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Górecki, K; Górski, K

2016-01-01

In the paper the results of measurements of thermal parameters of impulse-transformers containing cores made of different ferromagnetic materials are presented. Investigations were performed with the use of methods worked out in Gdynia Maritime University. The obtained results of measurements prove that the material of the core does not influence transient thermal impedance of the winding, whereas this parameter visibly changes with the change of spatial orientation of the transformer. In turn, the material of the core decides about transient thermal impedance of the core. Additionally, the influence of the core material on temperature distribution on the surface of the transformer was analysed. (paper)

Transient Simulation of Wind Turbine Towers under Lightning Stroke

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoqing Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A simulation algorithm is proposed in this paper for lightning transient analysis of the wind turbine (WT towers. In the proposed algorithm, the tower body is first subdivided into a discrete multiconductor system. A set of formulas are given to calculate the electrical parameters of the branches in the multiconductor system. By means of the electrical parameters, each branch unit in the multiconductor system is replaced as a coupled π-type circuit and the multiconductor system is converted into a circuit model. Then, the lightning transient responses can be obtained in different parts on the tower body by solving the circuit equations of the equivalent discretization network. The laboratory measurement is also made by a reduced-scale tower for checking the validity of the proposed algorithm.

Predictive Modeling of Transient Storage and Nutrient Uptake: Implications for Stream Restoration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O’Connor, Ben L.; Hondzo, Miki; Harvey, Judson W.

2010-12-01

This study examined two key aspects of reactive transport modeling for stream restoration purposes: the accuracy of the nutrient spiraling and transient storage models for quantifying reach-scale nutrient uptake, and the ability to quantify transport parameters using measurements and scaling techniques in order to improve upon traditional conservative tracer fitting methods. Nitrate (NO-3)(NO3-) uptake rates inferred using the nutrient spiraling model underestimated the total NO-3NO3- mass loss by 82%, which was attributed to the exclusion of dispersion and transient storage. The transient storage model was more accurate with respect to the NO-3NO3- mass loss (±20%) and also demonstrated that uptake in the main channel was more significant than in storage zones. Conservative tracer fitting was unable to produce transport parameter estimates for a riffle-pool transition of the study reach, while forward modeling of solute transport using measured/scaled transport parameters matched conservative tracer breakthrough curves for all reaches. Additionally, solute exchange between the main channel and embayment surface storage zones was quantified using first-order theory. These results demonstrate that it is vital to account for transient storage in quantifying nutrient uptake, and the continued development of measurement/scaling techniques is needed for reactive transport modeling of streams with complex hydraulic and geomorphic conditions.

Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, Lennart

1999-01-01

The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

Transient ecotone response to climatic change - some conceptual and modelling approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neilson, R.P. (Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR (United States))

1993-08-01

Accurate prediction of the ecological impacts of climatic change is a pressing challenge to the science of ecology. The current state of the art for broad-scale estimates of change in biomes and ecotones between biomes is limited to equilibrium estimates of ecological change under some future equilibrium climate. Uncertainties in these estimates abound Ecotones between biomes have been suggested as sensitive areas of change that could be effectively modelled and monitored for future change. Ecotones are also important in influencing local and regional biodiversity patterns and ecological flows. The ecological processes that could affect change at ecotones and within biomes are discussed; they include internal ecosystem processes, and external abiotic processes. Drought followed by infestations and fire appears to be the most likely process that could mediate ecological change under a rapidly changing climate. The impacts would be apparent across all biomes. Specific predictions about the dynamics of ecotones can be made qualitatively. Under current conditions, the size of homogeneous patches is expected to be small at ecotones, but to enlarge with distance from the ecotone. Directional climatic change should promote a coalescence of patches on one side of the ecotone and increased fragmentation on the other side. Ecotones should begin to blur as viewed from a satellite only to re-form at some later date in a new location.

Lithium Battery Transient Response as a Diagnostic Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Denisov, E.; Nigmatullin, R.; Evdokimov, Y.; Timergalina, G.

2018-05-01

Lithium batteries are currently used as the main energy storage for electronic devices. Progress in the field of portable electronic devices is significantly determined by the improvement of their weight/dimensional characteristics and specific capacity. In addition to the high reliability required of lithium batteries, in some critical applications proper diagnostics are required. Corresponding techniques allow prediction and prevention of operation interruption and avoidance of expensive battery replacement, and also provide additional benefits. Many effective diagnostic methods have been suggested; however, most of them require expensive experimental equipment, as well as interruption or strong perturbation of the operating mode. In the framework of this investigation, a simple diagnostic method based on analysis of transient processes is proposed. The transient response is considered as a reaction to an applied load variation that typically corresponds to normal operating conditions for most real applications. The transient response contains the same information as the impedance characteristic for the system operating in linear mode. Taking into account the large number of publications describing the impedance response associated with diagnostic methods, it can be assumed that the transient response contains a sufficient amount of information for creation of effective diagnostic systems. The proposed experimental installation is based on a controlled load, providing current variation, measuring equipment, and data processing electronics. It is proposed to use the second exponent parameters U 2 and β to estimate the state of charge for secondary lithium batteries. The proposed method improves the accuracy and reliability of a set of quantitative parameters associated with electrochemical energy sources.

Improved lumped models for transient combined convective and radiative cooling of multi-layer composite slabs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An Chen; Su Jian

2011-01-01

Improved lumped parameter models were developed for the transient heat conduction in multi-layer composite slabs subjected to combined convective and radiative cooling. The improved lumped models were obtained through two-point Hermite approximations for integrals. Transient combined convective and radiative cooling of three-layer composite slabs was analyzed to illustrate the applicability of the proposed lumped models, with respect to different values of the Biot numbers, the radiation-conduction parameter, the dimensionless thermal contact resistances, the dimensionless thickness, and the dimensionless thermal conductivity. It was shown by comparison with numerical solution of the original distributed parameter model that the higher order lumped model (H 1,1 /H 0,0 approximation) yielded significant improvement of average temperature prediction over the classical lumped model. In addition, the higher order (H 1,1 /H 0,0 ) model was applied to analyze the transient heat conduction problem of steel-concrete-steel sandwich plates. - Highlights: → Improved lumped models for convective-radiative cooling of multi-layer slabs were developed. → Two-point Hermite approximations for integrals were employed. → Significant improvement over classical lumped model was achieved. → The model can be applied to high Biot number and high radiation-conduction parameter. → Transient heat conduction in steel-concrete-steel sandwich pipes was analyzed as an example.

Search method for long-duration gravitational-wave transients from neutron stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prix, R.; Giampanis, S.; Messenger, C.

2011-01-01

We introduce a search method for a new class of gravitational-wave signals, namely, long-duration O(hours-weeks) transients from spinning neutron stars. We discuss the astrophysical motivation from glitch relaxation models and we derive a rough estimate for the maximal expected signal strength based on the superfluid excess rotational energy. The transient signal model considered here extends the traditional class of infinite-duration continuous-wave signals by a finite start-time and duration. We derive a multidetector Bayes factor for these signals in Gaussian noise using F-statistic amplitude priors, which simplifies the detection statistic and allows for an efficient implementation. We consider both a fully coherent statistic, which is computationally limited to directed searches for known pulsars, and a cheaper semicoherent variant, suitable for wide parameter-space searches for transients from unknown neutron stars. We have tested our method by Monte-Carlo simulation, and we find that it outperforms orthodox maximum-likelihood approaches both in sensitivity and in parameter-estimation quality.

Vertical axis wind turbine drive train transient dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Clauss, D. B.; Carne, T. G.

1982-01-01

Start up of a vertical axis wind turbine causes transient torque oscillations in the drive train with peak torques which may be over two and one half times the rated torque of the turbine. A computer code, based on a lumped parameter model of the drive train, was developed and tested for the low cost 17 meter turbine; the results show excellent agreement with field data. The code was used to predict the effect of a slip clutch on transient torque oscillations. It was demonstrated that a slip clutch located between the motor and brake can reduce peak torques by thirty eight percent.

Climatic chamber for plant physiology: a new project concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Materassi, A.; Fasano, G.; Arca, A.

2005-01-01

The two climatic chambers proposed here were designed and built for both general environmental physiology and specific studies on the effect of ultraviolet radiation on plants. The two chambers differ only for the fact that one of them, in addition to solar spectrum lamps, also has lamps which emit UV-B radiation. The environmental parameters taken into consideration are: luminous and UV-B radiation, air temperature and humidity, ozone and carbon dioxide concentration and air movement. Radiation can be continuously regulated, thus permitting simulation of twilight increasing and decreasing at the beginning and end of the photoperiod. Temperature cycles can be imposed between 5 and 40 deg C, while, for relative humidity, values can be imposed between 30% and 80%. Concentration of O3 can be maintained at values much lower than 0.1 ppm, the maximum value compatible with biological activity; CO2 concentration can be brought up to 3,000 ppm. Air movement inside the chambers is assured by ventilators and aspirators mounted on the devices which carry out regulation of the other environmental parameters. The controls of the various quantities are performed using medium-low cost commercial devices, while high level software manages them. In this way, good quality control of the environmental parameters is obtained with a much lower construction cost compared to other climatic chambers. Moreover, the use of commercial actuators permits easier and more immediate maintenance. Functionality tests, carried out both in transient and in steady state, have demonstrated a complete correspondence between project specifications and obtained results [it

Using Perturbed Physics Ensembles and Machine Learning to Select Parameters for Reducing Regional Biases in a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Hawkins, L.; Mote, P.; McNeall, D. J.; Sarah, S.; Wallom, D.; Betts, R. A.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the potential to reduce known summer hot/dry biases over Pacific Northwest in the UK Met Office's atmospheric model (HadAM3P) by simultaneously varying multiple model parameters. The bias-reduction process is done through a series of steps: 1) Generation of perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) through the volunteer computing network weather@home; 2) Using machine learning to train "cheap" and fast statistical emulators of climate model, to rule out regions of parameter spaces that lead to model variants that do not satisfy observational constraints, where the observational constraints (e.g., top-of-atmosphere energy flux, magnitude of annual temperature cycle, summer/winter temperature and precipitation) are introduced sequentially; 3) Designing a new PPE by "pre-filtering" using the emulator results. Steps 1) through 3) are repeated until results are considered to be satisfactory (3 times in our case). The process includes a sensitivity analysis to find dominant parameters for various model output metrics, which reduces the number of parameters to be perturbed with each new PPE. Relative to observational uncertainty, we achieve regional improvements without introducing large biases in other parts of the globe. Our results illustrate the potential of using machine learning to train cheap and fast statistical emulators of climate model, in combination with PPEs in systematic model improvement.

Study of Transients in an Enrichment Closed Loop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandino, M.

2002-06-01

In the present thesis a mathematic model is presented in order to describe the dynamic behavior inside a closed enrichment loop, the latter representing a single stage of an uranium gaseous diffusion enrichment cascade.The analytical model is turned into a numerical model, and implemented through a computational code.For the verification of the model, measurements were taken in an experimental circuit using air as the process fluid.This circuit was instrumented so as to register its characteristic thermohydraulic variables.The measured transients were simulated, comparing the numerical results with the experimental measurements.A good agreement between the characteristic setting times and the thermohydraulic parameters evolution was observed.Besides, other transients of two species separation were numerically analyzed, including setting times of each magnitude, behavior of each one of them during different transients, and redistribution of concentrations

Effect of transient postpubertal hypo- and hyperthyroidism on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Effect of transient postpubertal hypo- and hyperthyroidism on reproductive parameters of Iranian broiler breeder hens. ... Egg number, fertility, hatchability, grading of day-old chicks and embryonic developmental stage of unhatched eggs were determined for individual artificially inseminated hen. Effects of PTU and T4 ...

Reasons for the variability of the climate sensitivity parameter regarding spatially inhomogeneous ozone perturbation; Ursachen der Variabilitaet des Klimasensitivitaetsparameters fuer raeumlich inhomogene Ozonstoerungen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stuber, N.

2003-07-01

A reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is a condition precedent for implementing the framework convention on climate change. ''Metrics'' allow for a comparison of different emissions with regard to their potential effects on global climate and, hence, are a prerequisite for political decisions. Currently ''radiative forcing'' is the most common metric: Global, annual mean radiative forcing resulting from some perturbation of the climate system is proportional to equilibrium surface temperature response. The coefficient of proportionality, {lambda}, is called the ''climate sensitivity parameter''. However, several studies have indicated that for spatially inhomogeneous perturbations {lambda} can no longer be regarded as a constant. This doctoral thesis examines the reasons for the non-linear relationship between radiative forcing and climate response. The response to several idealized ozone perturbations has been analysed. The equilibrium response of some radiatively relevant parameters features a characteristic signature, implying that the respective feedback mechanisms act quite differently in the various experiments. Accordingly, equality of radiative forcing is not sufficient to guarantee comparability of the gross effect of all feedback mechanisms. Analysis shows that the variability of {lambda} is largely due to the very different strength of stratospheric water vapor and sea-ice albedo feedback for the various experiments. (orig.)

Intelligent simulations for on-line transient analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassberger, J.A.; Lee, J.C.

1987-01-01

A unique combination of simulation, parameter estimation and expert systems technology is applied to the problem of diagnosing nuclear power plant transients. Knowledge-based reasoning is ued to monitor plant data and hypothesize about the status of the plant. Fuzzy logic is employed as the inferencing mechanism and an implication scheme based on observations is developed and employed to handle scenarios involving competing failures. Hypothesis testing is performed by simulating the behavior of faulted components using numerical models. A filter has been developed for systematically adjusting key model parameters to force agreement between simulations and actual plant data. Pattern recognition is employed as a decision analysis technique for choosing among several hypotheses based on simulation results. An artificial Intelligence framework based on a critical functions approach is used to deal with the complexity of a nuclear plant system. Detailed simulation results of various nuclear power plant accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate the performance and robustness properties of the diagnostic algorithm developed. The system is shown to be successful in diagnosing and identifying fault parameters for a normal reactor scram, loss-of-feedwater (LOFW) and small loss-of-coolant (LOCA) transients occurring together in a scenario similar to the accident at Three Mile Island

Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2009-01-01

This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

Climate variations and the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaels, P.J.; Knappenberger, P.C.; Gay, D.A.

1994-01-01

A number of recent publications have established the scientific paradigm that anthropogenerated sulfate aerosols are a sufficient explanation for the lack of observed greenhouse warming that has been predicted by transient general circulation climate models. This paper tests that hypothesis by examining the observed and modeled behavior of eigenvectors of the observed temperature field at three levels: hemispheric, polar, and over the regions where sulfate aerosol is most concentrated. Without sulfates in the transient model, there is no significant difference in explanatory power between the three test regions. In all three cases, the model creates much more spurious climatic change than it is able to capture. Most damaging to the sulfate hypothesis is that the GCM most accurately represents the behavior of the first eigenvector in summer in the high sulfate regions. This is where the difference between the model and observed temperatures is supposed to be greatest. Thus while the addition of sulfate aerosol to a transient general circulation model may improve its performance over some regions, this effect is insufficient to explain the overall lack of observed warming. This failure of the aerosol hypothesis is particularly evident in polar regions that are relatively aerosol-free, but also devoid of any significant warming

Simulation of Safety and Transient Analysis of a Pressurized Water Reactor using the Personal Computer Transient Analyzer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunday J. IBRAHIM

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Safety and transient analyses of a pressurised water reactor (PWR using the Personal Computer Transient Analyzer (PCTRAN simulator was carried out. The analyses presented a synergistic integration of a numerical model; a full scope high fidelity simulation system which adopted point reactor neutron kinetics model and movable boundary two phase fluid models to simplify the calculation of the program, so it could achieve real-time simulation on a personal computer. Various scenarios of transients and accidents likely to occur at any nuclear power plant were simulated. The simulations investigated the change of signals and parameters vis a vis loss of coolant accident, scram, turbine trip, inadvertent control rod insertion and withdrawal, containment failure, fuel handling accident in auxiliary building and containment, moderator dilution as well as a combination of these parameters. Furthermore, statistical analyses of the PCTRAN results were carried out. PCTRAN results for the loss of coolant accident (LOCA caused a rapid drop in coolant pressure at the rate of 21.8KN/m2/sec triggering a shutdown of the reactor protection system (RPS, while the turbine trip accident showed a rapid drop in total plant power at the rate of 14.3 MWe/sec causing a downtime in the plant. Fuel handling accidents mimic results showed release of radioactive materials in unacceptable doses. This work shows the potential classes of nuclear accidents likely to occur during operation in proposed reactor sites. The simulations are very appropriate in the light of Nigeria’s plan to generate nuclear energy in the region of 1000 MWe from reactors by 2017.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Mahowald

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-01-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Transient photoresponse in amorphous In-Ga-Zn-O thin films under stretched exponential analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jiajun; Adler, Alexander U.; Mason, Thomas O.; Bruce Buchholz, D.; Chang, R. P. H.; Grayson, M.

2013-04-01

We investigated transient photoresponse and Hall effect in amorphous In-Ga-Zn-O thin films and observed a stretched exponential response which allows characterization of the activation energy spectrum with only three fit parameters. Measurements of as-grown films and 350 K annealed films were conducted at room temperature by recording conductivity, carrier density, and mobility over day-long time scales, both under illumination and in the dark. Hall measurements verify approximately constant mobility, even as the photoinduced carrier density changes by orders of magnitude. The transient photoconductivity data fit well to a stretched exponential during both illumination and dark relaxation, but with slower response in the dark. The inverse Laplace transforms of these stretched exponentials yield the density of activation energies responsible for transient photoconductivity. An empirical equation is introduced, which determines the linewidth of the activation energy band from the stretched exponential parameter β. Dry annealing at 350 K is observed to slow the transient photoresponse.

Transient performance estimation of charge plasma based negative capacitance junctionless tunnel FET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Sangeeta; Kondekar, P. N.; Pal, Pawan

2016-01-01

We investigate the transient behavior of an n-type double gate negative capacitance junctionless tunnel field effect transistor (NC-JLTFET). The structure is realized by using the work-function engineering of metal electrodes over a heavily doped n + silicon channel and a ferroelectric gate stack to get negative capacitance behavior. The positive feedback in the electric dipoles of ferroelectric materials results in applied gate bias boosting. Various device transient parameters viz. transconductance, output resistance, output conductance, intrinsic gain, intrinsic gate delay, transconductance generation factor and unity gain frequency are analyzed using ac analysis of the device. To study the impact of the work-function variation of control and source gate on device performance, sensitivity analysis of the device has been carried out by varying these parameters. Simulation study reveals that it preserves inherent advantages of charge-plasma junctionless structure and exhibits improved transient behavior as well. (paper)

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R; Todd, Benjamin J; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J

2013-01-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations. (letter)

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

2013-06-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

Study of wine-growing land ('terroirs') characteristics in the canton of Vaud (Switzerland): modelization of the climatical parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pythoud, K.

2004-01-01

As part of a study on the viticultural terroirs of 'canton de Vaud', a climatic model integrating temperature, relief, radiation and pluviometry was built. The climate is defined by pluviometry and the thermical gradient. For standard needs, climatic parameters are determined at small scale (b 1/300'000), which is not accurate for the study of the mesoclimate. The adopted approach uses a digital elevation model with a resolution of 25 meters, the DEM25 of the Swiss Federal Office of Topography, at 1/25'000 scale. The thermical gradient is deduced from solar radiation, wind effect estimations and an empirical model of thermical altitudinal distribution. The radiation is calculated with a model that integrates the effects of the surrounding relief (slope, exposition and casted shadow) and the sun height above the horizon during a specific period. The relief shape and the principal wind directions based on a regional cartography allowed to estimate wind effect. Then climatic parameters are calculated for critical periods in the vineyard's vegetative cycle. A comparison with the map of thermical levels of 'canton de Vaud', determined on the basis of a phenological survey, allows to adjust the microclimate model. The rainfall distribution is the result of a data regionalization coming from Meteoswiss stations network. The calculation was based on the monthly rainfall values collected in the stations near or inside the vineyard during the last 30 years. The final climatic zoning is a weighting of the previous mentioned variables. Its value is more qualitative than quantitative. It offers however a comparison basis between the different regions concerned by the study

Transient spatiotemporal chaos in the Morris-Lecar neuronal ring network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keplinger, Keegan, E-mail: keegankeplinger@gmail.com; Wackerbauer, Renate, E-mail: rawackerbauer@alaska.edu [Department of Physics, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-5920 (United States)

2014-03-15

Transient behavior is thought to play an integral role in brain functionality. Numerical simulations of the firing activity of diffusively coupled, excitable Morris-Lecar neurons reveal transient spatiotemporal chaos in the parameter regime below the saddle-node on invariant circle bifurcation point. The neighborhood of the chaotic saddle is reached through perturbations of the rest state, in which few initially active neurons at an effective spatial distance can initiate spatiotemporal chaos. The system escapes from the neighborhood of the chaotic saddle to either the rest state or to a state of pulse propagation. The lifetime of the chaotic transients is manipulated in a statistical sense through a singular application of a synchronous perturbation to a group of neurons.

Transient spatiotemporal chaos in the Morris-Lecar neuronal ring network.

Science.gov (United States)

Keplinger, Keegan; Wackerbauer, Renate

2014-03-01

Transient behavior is thought to play an integral role in brain functionality. Numerical simulations of the firing activity of diffusively coupled, excitable Morris-Lecar neurons reveal transient spatiotemporal chaos in the parameter regime below the saddle-node on invariant circle bifurcation point. The neighborhood of the chaotic saddle is reached through perturbations of the rest state, in which few initially active neurons at an effective spatial distance can initiate spatiotemporal chaos. The system escapes from the neighborhood of the chaotic saddle to either the rest state or to a state of pulse propagation. The lifetime of the chaotic transients is manipulated in a statistical sense through a singular application of a synchronous perturbation to a group of neurons.

Beam transient analyses of Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactors based on neutron transport method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Mingtao; Wu, Hongchun [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, Shaanxi (China); Zheng, Youqi, E-mail: yqzheng@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, Shaanxi (China); Wang, Kunpeng [Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, PO Box 8088, Beijing 100082 (China); Li, Xunzhao; Zhou, Shengcheng [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, Shaanxi (China)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • A transport-based kinetics code for Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactors is developed. • The performance of different kinetics methods adapted to the ADSR is investigated. • The impacts of neutronic parameters deteriorating with fuel depletion are investigated. - Abstract: The Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactor (ADSR) is almost external source dominated since there is no additional reactivity control mechanism in most designs. This paper focuses on beam-induced transients with an in-house developed dynamic analysis code. The performance of different kinetics methods adapted to the ADSR is investigated, including the point kinetics approximation and space–time kinetics methods. Then, the transient responds of beam trip and beam overpower are calculated and analyzed for an ADSR design dedicated for minor actinides transmutation. The impacts of some safety-related neutronics parameters deteriorating with fuel depletion are also investigated. The results show that the power distribution varying with burnup leads to large differences in temperature responds during transients, while the impacts of kinetic parameters and feedback coefficients are not very obvious. Classification: Core physic.

Temporal neural network for the identification of nuclear power plant transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uluyol, O.; Ragheb, M.

1993-01-01

In this paper a layered spatiotemporal neural network is proposed for the identification of nuclear power plant transients. The developed layered spatiotemporal network is inspired by the formal avalanche structure developed by S. Grossberg and offers advantages compared with the stationary pattern approach using the perceptron paradigm. Each layer in the network is trained to recognize a separate time-dependent accident scenario. Within each scenario, the temporal behavior of the relevant parameters such as pressurizer pressure, pressurizer water volume, cold and hot legs temperatures, vessel flow, and power, are considered. Numerical cases are considered where the proposed methodology is applied to two nuclear power plant anticipated transient scenarios: the Station Blackout and the Anticipated Transient without Scram transients in a pressurized water reactor . The transient signatures used were generated by modeling the accidents using RELAP5/MOD2, a best-estimate thermal-hydraulics numerical code. The ability of the proposed layered spatiotemporal network to operate at different noise levels is investigated. Its incorporation within an Insightful Algorithm and Anticipatory Systems context for identifying and in predicting the course of nuclear transients is discussed

Analysis of transient thermal response in the outlet plenum of an LMFBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, J.W.

1976-05-01

A two-zone mixing model based on the lumped-parameter approach was developed for the analysis of transient thermal response in the upper outlet plenum of an LMFBR. The one-dimensional turbulent jet flow equations were solved to determine the maximum penetration of the core flow. The maximum penetration is used as the criterion for dividing the sodium region into two mixing zones. The lumped-parameter model considers the transient sodium temperature affected by the thermal expansion of sodium, heat transfer with cover gas, heat capacity of different sections of metal and the addition of bypass flow into the plenum. Numerical calculations were performed for two cases. The first case corresponds to a normal scram followed by flow coast-down. The second case represents the double-ended pipe rupture at the inlet of cold leg followed by reactor scram. The results indicate that effects of flow stratification, chimney height, metal heat capacity and bypass flow are important for transient sodium temperature calculation. Thermal expansion of sodium and heat transfer with the cover gas does not play any significant role on sodium temperature. This two-zone mixing model will be a part of the thermohydraulic transient code SSC

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1992-01-01

The aims of the US Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Research Program are to improve assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change and to define and reduce uncertainties through selected research. This project will address: The regional and seasonal details of the expected climatic changes; how rapidly will these changes occur; how and when will the climatic effects of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases be first detected; and the relationships between greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change and changes caused by other external and internal factors. The present project addresses all of these questions. Many of the diverse facets of greenhouse-gas-related climate research can be grouped under three interlinked subject areas: modeling, first detection and supporting data. This project will include the analysis of climate forcing factors, the development and refinement of transient response climate models, and the use of instrumental data in validating General Circulation Models (GCMs)

Transient virulence of emerging pathogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolker, Benjamin M; Nanda, Arjun; Shah, Dharmini

2010-05-06

Should emerging pathogens be unusually virulent? If so, why? Existing theories of virulence evolution based on a tradeoff between high transmission rates and long infectious periods imply that epidemic growth conditions will select for higher virulence, possibly leading to a transient peak in virulence near the beginning of an epidemic. This transient selection could lead to high virulence in emerging pathogens. Using a simple model of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of emerging pathogens, along with rough estimates of parameters for pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, West Nile virus and myxomatosis, we estimated the potential magnitude and timing of such transient virulence peaks. Pathogens that are moderately evolvable, highly transmissible, and highly virulent at equilibrium could briefly double their virulence during an epidemic; thus, epidemic-phase selection could contribute significantly to the virulence of emerging pathogens. In order to further assess the potential significance of this mechanism, we bring together data from the literature for the shapes of tradeoff curves for several pathogens (myxomatosis, HIV, and a parasite of Daphnia) and the level of genetic variation for virulence for one (myxomatosis). We discuss the need for better data on tradeoff curves and genetic variance in order to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios of virulence evolution.

Shock-induced thermal wave propagation and response analysis of a viscoelastic thin plate under transient heating loads

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chenlin; Guo, Huili; Tian, Xiaogeng

2018-04-01

This paper is devoted to the thermal shock analysis for viscoelastic materials under transient heating loads. The governing coupled equations with time-delay parameter and nonlocal scale parameter are derived based on the generalized thermo-viscoelasticity theory. The problem of a thin plate composed of viscoelastic material, subjected to a sudden temperature rise at the boundary plane, is solved by employing Laplace transformation techniques. The transient responses, i.e. temperature, displacement, stresses, heat flux as well as strain, are obtained and discussed. The effects of time-delay and nonlocal scale parameter on the transient responses are analyzed and discussed. It can be observed that: the propagation of thermal wave is dynamically smoothed and changed with the variation of time-delay; while the displacement, strain, and stress can be rapidly reduced by nonlocal scale parameter, which can be viewed as an important indicator for predicting the stiffness softening behavior for viscoelastic materials.

Estimation of Kinetic Parameters in an Automotive SCR Catalyst Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Åberg, Andreas; Widd, Anders; Abildskov, Jens

2016-01-01

be used directly for accurate full-scale transient simulations. The model was validated against full-scale data with an engine following the European Transient Cycle. The validation showed that the predictive capability for nitrogen oxides (NOx) was satisfactory. After re-estimation of the adsorption...... and desorption parameters with full-scale transient data, the fit for both NOx and NH3-slip was satisfactory....

Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water manegement in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, Jacob Cornelis Jan

2015-01-01

Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for

A quasi-transient model of a transcritical carbon dioxide direct-expansion ground source heat pump for space and water heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eslami-Nejad, Parham; Ouzzane, Mohamed; Aidoun, Zine

2015-01-01

In this study, a theoretical quasi-transient model is developed for detailed simulations of a carbon dioxide (CO_2) direct-expansion ground source heat pump (DX-GSHP). This model combines a transient analytical model for the ground, steady-state numerical models for the borehole and the gas cooler, as well as several thermodynamic models for the remaining components of a conventional heat pump, organized in interacting subroutines to form a powerful simulation tool. Extensive validation combining experimental data and CFD-generated results was performed for the borehole before the tool was used to simulate a practical application case. Performance is investigated for a system satisfying both space heating and domestic hot water requirements of a typical single family detached home in a cold climate region. The variation of different system parameters is also evaluated in this study. It is shown that CO_2 DX-GSHPs can offer relatively efficient and stable performance for integrated water and space heating applications. Furthermore, the importance of an accurate geothermal borehole sizing is highlighted for the DX-CO_2 heat pump systems. It is shown that, due to changes in the system working conditions, the total borehole length is not linearly correlated with the heat pump energy consumption and other parameters such as heat pump coefficient of performance and pressure drop in ground heat exchangers. Results showed that increasing the total borehole length of an optimum design (reference case study) by 25% decreases the total annual energy consumption by only 6%. However, reducing total borehole length of the reference case by 25% increases the total annual energy consumption by 10%. - Highlights: • A quasi-transient model for CO_2 direct-exchange ground-source heat pump is developed. • Validation combining experimental data and CFD-generated results was performed. • The effect of the borehole size on the design parameters is evaluated. • Results show that

Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Mikolajewicz, U; Bakan, S [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

1993-06-01

The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

Global transients in ultraviolet and red-infrared ranges from data of Universitetsky-Tatiana-2 satellite

Science.gov (United States)

Garipov, G. K.; Khrenov, B. A.; Klimov, P. A.; Klimenko, V. V.; Mareev, E. A.; Martines, O.; Mendoza, E.; Morozenko, V. S.; Panasyuk, M. I.; Park, I. H.; Ponce, E.; Rivera, L.; Salazar, H.; Tulupov, V. I.; Vedenkin, N. N.; Yashin, I. V.

2013-01-01

Light detectors sensitive to wavelength ranges 240-400 nm and beyond 610 nm (which we refer to, for simplicity, as the UV and Red bands) on board Universitetsky-Tatiana-2 satellite have detected transient flashes in the atmosphere of duration 1-128 ms. Measured ratio of the number of Red photons to the number of UV photons indicates that source of transient radiation is at high atmosphere altitude (>50 km). Distribution of events with various photon numbers Qa in the atmosphere found to be different for "luminous" events Qa = 1023 - 1026 (with exponent of differential distribution -2.2) and for "faint" events Qa = 1021 - 1023 (with exponent - 0.97). Luminous event parameters (atmosphere altitude, energy released to radiation, and temporal profiles) are similar to observed elsewhere parameters of transient luminous events (TLE) of elves, sprites, halo, and gigantic blue jets types. Global map of luminous events demonstrates concentration to equatorial zones (latitudes 30°N to 30°S) above continents. Faint events (with number of photons Qa = 1020 - 5ṡ 1021) are distributed more uniformly over latitudes and longitudes. Phenomenon of series of transients registered every minute along satellite orbit (from 3 to 16 transients in one series) was observed. Most TLE-type events belonged to series. Single transients are in average fainter than serial ones. Some transients belonging to series occurs far away of thunderstorm regions. Origin of faint single transients is not clear; several hypothetical models of their production are discussed.

Volume 3. Base technology FSAR support document: prefailure transient behavior and failure threshold. Status report, January 1975

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baars, R.E.; Culley, G.E.; Davis, R.T.; Henderson, R.G.; Scott, J.H.

1975-11-01

The FFTF fuel pin design and fabrication data, irradiation histories, and postirradiation examination results are summarized for the HEDL/TREAT transient test experimental programs. For each experiment, the data include: (a) fuel pin fabrication parameters, (b) steady-state irradiation history, (c) transient test design conditions, (d) transient test data, and (e) postirradiation examination results

Simulation of control performance under house load transients for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Zhongyue; Wang Yuanlong; Tang Yuyuan; Liu Jiong

1999-01-01

The CATIA2 code is used to simulate the extreme normal transients--house load transients of Qinshan Phase II 600 MW nuclear power plant. The simulating results show that all of the reactor main parameters are operating in the allowable ranges, the reactor system is stable, and the control characteristics of the nuclear power plant is satisfactory. They are also good in agreement with Framatome's results

Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space

Science.gov (United States)

Villar, V. Ashley; Berger, Edo; Metzger, Brian D.; Guillochon, James

2017-11-01

The duration-luminosity phase space (DLPS) of optical transients is used, mostly heuristically, to compare various classes of transient events, to explore the origin of new transients, and to influence optical survey observing strategies. For example, several observational searches have been guided by intriguing voids and gaps in this phase space. However, we should ask, do we expect to find transients in these voids given our understanding of the various heating sources operating in astrophysical transients? In this work, we explore a broad range of theoretical models and empirical relations to generate optical light curves and to populate the DLPS. We explore transients powered by adiabatic expansion, radioactive decay, magnetar spin-down, and circumstellar interaction. For each heating source, we provide a concise summary of the basic physical processes, a physically motivated choice of model parameter ranges, an overall summary of the resulting light curves and their occupied range in the DLPS, and how the various model input parameters affect the light curves. We specifically explore the key voids discussed in the literature: the intermediate-luminosity gap between classical novae and supernovae, and short-duration transients (≲ 10 days). We find that few physical models lead to transients that occupy these voids. Moreover, we find that only relativistic expansion can produce fast and luminous transients, while for all other heating sources events with durations ≲ 10 days are dim ({M}{{R}}≳ -15 mag). Finally, we explore the detection potential of optical surveys (e.g., Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) in the DLPS and quantify the notion that short-duration and dim transients are exponentially more difficult to discover in untargeted surveys.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Quantitative evaluation of ozone and selected climate parameters in a set of EMAC simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Righi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Four simulations with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC model have been evaluated with the Earth System Model Validation Tool (ESMValTool to identify differences in simulated ozone and selected climate parameters that resulted from (i different setups of the EMAC model (nudged vs. free-running and (ii different boundary conditions (emissions, sea surface temperatures (SSTs and sea ice concentrations (SICs. To assess the relative performance of the simulations, quantitative performance metrics are calculated consistently for the climate parameters and ozone. This is important for the interpretation of the evaluation results since biases in climate can impact on biases in chemistry and vice versa. The observational data sets used for the evaluation include ozonesonde and aircraft data, meteorological reanalyses and satellite measurements. The results from a previous EMAC evaluation of a model simulation with nudging towards realistic meteorology in the troposphere have been compared to new simulations with different model setups and updated emission data sets in free-running time slice and nudged quasi chemistry-transport model (QCTM mode. The latter two configurations are particularly important for chemistry-climate projections and for the quantification of individual sources (e.g., the transport sector that lead to small chemical perturbations of the climate system, respectively. With the exception of some specific features which are detailed in this study, no large differences that could be related to the different setups (nudged vs. free-running of the EMAC simulations were found, which offers the possibility to evaluate and improve the overall model with the help of shorter nudged simulations. The main differences between the two setups is a better representation of the tropospheric and stratospheric temperature in the nudged simulations, which also better reproduce stratospheric water vapor concentrations, due to the improved

Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geo-morphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Goncalves, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.P.

2007-01-01

In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geo-morphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geo-morphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine uplift. Climate forcing results from paleo-climate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (similar to 3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA's Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid

The fast transient sky with Gaia

Science.gov (United States)

Wevers, Thomas; Jonker, Peter G.; Hodgkin, Simon T.; Kostrzewa-Rutkowska, Zuzanna; Harrison, Diana L.; Rixon, Guy; Nelemans, Gijs; Roelens, Maroussia; Eyer, Laurent; van Leeuwen, Floor; Yoldas, Abdullah

2018-01-01

The ESA Gaia satellite scans the whole sky with a temporal sampling ranging from seconds and hours to months. Each time a source passes within the Gaia field of view, it moves over 10 charge coupled devices (CCDs) in 45 s and a light curve with 4.5 s sampling (the crossing time per CCD) is registered. Given that the 4.5 s sampling represents a virtually unexplored parameter space in optical time domain astronomy, this data set potentially provides a unique opportunity to open up the fast transient sky. We present a method to start mining the wealth of information in the per CCD Gaia data. We perform extensive data filtering to eliminate known onboard and data processing artefacts, and present a statistical method to identify sources that show transient brightness variations on ≲2 h time-scales. We illustrate that by using the Gaia photometric CCD measurements, we can detect transient brightness variations down to an amplitude of 0.3 mag on time-scales ranging from 15 s to several hours. We search an area of ∼23.5 deg2 on the sky and find four strong candidate fast transients. Two candidates are tentatively classified as flares on M-dwarf stars, while one is probably a flare on a giant star and one potentially a flare on a solar-type star. These classifications are based on archival data and the time-scales involved. We argue that the method presented here can be added to the existing Gaia Science Alerts infrastructure for the near real-time public dissemination of fast transient events.

Seismic Microzonation for Refinement of Seismic Load Parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savich, A. I.; Bugaevskii, A. G., E-mail: office@geodyn.ru, E-mail: bugaevskiy@geodyn.ru [Center of the Office of Geodynamic Observations in the Power Sector, an affiliate of JSC “Institut Gidroproekt” (Russian Federation)

2016-05-15

Functional dependencies are established for the characteristics of seismic transients recorded at various points of a studied site, which are used to propose a new approach to seismic microzonation (SMZ) that enables the creation of new SMZ maps of strong seismic motion, with due regard for dynamic parameters of recorded transients during weak earthquakes.

Transient Tolerant Automated Control System for the LEDA 75kV Injector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thuot, M.E.; Dalesio, L.R.; Harrington, M.; Hodgkins, D.; Kerstiens, D.M.; Stettler, M.W.; Warren, D.S.; Zaugg, T.; Arvin, A.; Bolt, S.; Richards, M.

1999-01-01

The Low-Energy Demonstration Accelerator (LEDA) injector is designed to inject 75-keV, 110-mA, proton beams into the LEDA RFQ. The injector operation has been automated to provide long term, high availability operation using the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS). Automated recovery from spark-downs demands reliable spark detection and sequence execution by the injector controller. Reliable computer control in the high-energy transient environment required transient suppression and isolation of hundreds of analog and binary data lines connecting the EPICS computer controller to the injector and it's power supplies and diagnostics. A transient suppression design based on measured and modeled spark transient parameters provides robust injector operation. This paper describes the control system hardware and software design, implementation and operational performance

Transients in reactors for power systems compensation

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul Hamid, Haziah

This thesis describes new models and investigations into switching transient phenomena related to the shunt reactors and the Mechanically Switched Capacitor with Damping Network (MSCDN) operations used for reactive power control in the transmission system. Shunt reactors and MSCDN are similar in that they have reactors. A shunt reactor is connected parallel to the compensated lines to absorb the leading current, whereas the MSCDN is a version of a capacitor bank designed as a C-type filter for use in the harmonic-rich environment. In this work, models have been developed and transient overvoltages due to shunt reactor deenergisation were estimated analytically using MathCad, a mathematical program. Computer simulations used the ATP/EMTP program to reproduce both single-phase and three-phase shunt reactor switching at 275 kV operational substations. The effect of the reactor switching on the circuit breaker grading capacitor was also examined by considering various switching conditions.. The main original achievement of this thesis is the clarification of failure mechanisms occurring in the air-core filter reactor due to MSCDN switching operations. The simulation of the MSCDN energisation was conducted using the ATP/EMTP program in the presence of surge arresters. The outcome of this simulation shows that extremely fast transients were established across the air-core filter reactor. This identified transient event has led to the development of a detailed air-core reactor model, which accounts for the inter-turn RLC parameters as well as the stray capacitances-to-ground. These parameters are incorporated into the transient simulation circuit, from which the current and voltage distribution across the winding were derived using electric field and equivalent circuit modelling. Analysis of the results has revealed that there are substantial dielectric stresses imposed on the winding insulation that can be attributed to a combination of three factors. (i) First, the

Unified fluid flow model for pressure transient analysis in naturally fractured media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babak, Petro; Azaiez, Jalel

2015-01-01

Naturally fractured reservoirs present special challenges for flow modeling with regards to their internal geometrical structure. The shape and distribution of matrix porous blocks and the geometry of fractures play key roles in the formulation of transient interporosity flow models. Although these models have been formulated for several typical geometries of the fracture networks, they appeared to be very dissimilar for different shapes of matrix blocks, and their analysis presents many technical challenges. The aim of this paper is to derive and analyze a unified approach to transient interporosity flow models for slightly compressible fluids that can be used for any matrix geometry and fracture network. A unified fractional differential transient interporosity flow model is derived using asymptotic analysis for singularly perturbed problems with small parameters arising from the assumption of a much smaller permeability of the matrix blocks compared to that of the fractures. This methodology allowed us to unify existing transient interporosity flow models formulated for different shapes of matrix blocks including bounded matrix blocks, unbounded matrix cylinders with any orthogonal crossection, and matrix slabs. The model is formulated using a fractional order diffusion equation for fluid pressure that involves Caputo derivative of order 1/2 with respect to time. Analysis of the unified fractional derivative model revealed that the surface area-to-volume ratio is the key parameter in the description of the flow through naturally fractured media. Expressions of this parameter are presented for matrix blocks of the same geometrical shape as well as combinations of different shapes with constant and random sizes. Numerical comparisons between the predictions of the unified model and those obtained from existing transient interporosity ones for matrix blocks in the form of slabs, spheres and cylinders are presented for linear, radial and spherical flow types for

Identification of dominant interactions between climatic seasonality, catchment characteristics and agricultural activities on Budyko-type equation parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Yong, Bin

2018-01-01

Quantifying precipitation (P) partition into evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) is of great importance for global and regional water availability assessment. Budyko framework serves as a powerful tool to make simple and transparent estimation for the partition, using a single parameter, to characterize the shape of the Budyko curve for a "specific basin", where the single parameter reflects the overall effect by not only climatic seasonality, catchment characteristics (e.g., soil, topography and vegetation) but also agricultural activities (e.g., cultivation and irrigation). At the regional scale, these influencing factors are interconnected, and the interactions between them can also affect the single parameter of Budyko-type equations' estimating. Here we employ the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model to estimate the Budyko curve shape parameter (n in the Choudhury's equation, one form of the Budyko framework) of the selected 96 catchments across China using a data set of long-term averages for climatic seasonality, catchment characteristics and agricultural activities. Results show average storm depth (ASD), vegetation coverage (M), and seasonality index of precipitation (SI) are three statistically significant factors affecting the Budyko parameter. More importantly, four pairs of interactions are recognized by the MARS model as: The interaction between CA (percentage of cultivated land area to total catchment area) and ASD shows that the cultivation can weaken the reducing effect of high ASD (>46.78 mm) on the Budyko parameter estimating. Drought (represented by the value of Palmer drought severity index 0.23) tend to enhance the Budyko parameter reduction by large SI (>0.797). Low vegetation coverage (34.56%) is likely to intensify the rising effect on evapotranspiration ratio by IA (percentage of irrigation area to total catchment area). The Budyko n values estimated by the MARS model reproduce the calculated ones by the observation well

The freshwater balance of polar regions in transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD using a comprehensive coupled climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehner, Flavio; Raible, Christoph C.; Hofer, Dominik; Stocker, Thomas F. [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

2012-07-15

The ocean and sea ice in both polar regions are important reservoirs of freshwater within the climate system. While the response of these reservoirs to future climate change has been studied intensively, the sensitivity of the polar freshwater balance to natural forcing variations during preindustrial times has received less attention. Using an ensemble of transient simulations from 1500 to 2100 AD we put present-day and future states of the polar freshwater balance in the context of low frequency variability of the past five centuries. This is done by focusing on different multi-decadal periods of characteristic external forcing. In the Arctic, freshwater is shifted from the ocean to sea ice during the Maunder Minimum while the total amount of freshwater within the Arctic domain remains unchanged. In contrast, the subsequent Dalton Minimum does not leave an imprint on the slow-reacting reservoirs of the ocean and sea ice, but triggers a drop in the import of freshwater through the atmosphere. During the twentieth and twenty-first century the build-up of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean leads to a strengthening of the liquid export. The Arctic freshwater balance is shifted towards being a large source of freshwater to the North Atlantic ocean. The Antarctic freshwater cycle, on the other hand, appears to be insensitive to preindustrial variations in external forcing. In line with the rising temperature during the industrial era the freshwater budget becomes increasingly unbalanced and strengthens the high latitude's Southern Ocean as a source of liquid freshwater to lower latitude oceans. (orig.)

VEMAP 2: Monthly Historical and Future Climate Data, Alaska, USA

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the development of The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2 transient climate change scenarios...

An investigation of thermal comfort inside a bus during heating period within a climatic chamber.

Science.gov (United States)

Pala, Uzeyir; Oz, H Ridvan

2015-05-01

By this study, it was aimed to define a testing and calculation model for thermal comfort assessment of a bus HVAC design and to compare effects of changing parameters on passenger's thermal comfort. For this purpose, a combined theoretical and experimental work during heating period inside a coach was carried out. The bus was left under 20 °C for more than 7 h within a climatic chamber and all heat sources were started at the beginning of a standard test. To investigate effects of fast transient conditions on passengers' physiology and thermal comfort, temperatures, air humidity and air velocities were measured. Human body was considered as one complete piece composed of core and skin compartments and the Transient Energy Balance Model developed by Gagge et al. in 1971 was used to calculate changes in thermal parameters between passenger bodies and bus interior environment. Depending on the given initial and environmental conditions, the graphs of passengers Thermal Sensation and Thermal Discomfort Level were found. At the end, a general mathematical model supported with a related experimental procedure was developed for the use of automotive HVAC engineers and scientists working on thermal comfort as a human dimension. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation

OpenAIRE

Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Baker, Paul A.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E.; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Mix, Alan C.; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Pahnke, Katharina

2012-01-01

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to th...

Model of Transient Process Where Three-Phase Transducer Feeds Induction Motor Equivalent as a Variable Active-Inductive Load

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nenad Marković

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a new approach in the analysis of a transient state in a system where the feeding source is a transducer-IGBT inverter and load is introduced through the induction motor with its R-L parameters. Induction motors with different parameters of powers and power factors are tested. MATLAB simulation of the three-phase inverter that feeds the induction machine has replaced the missing lab equipment with which mathematical model of this system was verified. According to the selected parameters of the inverter and induction machine and through the simulation in the MATLAB program, the results are obtained in the form of diagrams that verify the model of a transient state of the induction machine operation when it operates as a motor which is presented as a variable R-L load. The transient process of the system three-phase bridge inverter whose active-inductive load is the induction machine in the conditions of the change of the load parameters is analyzed. The model of the transient process in the system formed by the inverter in PWM (Pulse Width Modulation converter and induction machine is developed in the time domain and phase coordinates.

The role of transients in the Mid Summer Drought over the Tropical Americas

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, E.; Magaña Rueda, V.; Caetano, E.

2013-05-01

The Mid Summer Drought (MSD) has raised the interested of those interested in regional climate dynamics since it appears to be a unique characteristic of the tropical Americas climate. The MSD corresponds to a relative minimum in summer precipitation between July and August in the Mesoamerican region. Several theories have been posed to explain its origin including the annual cycle march of the ITCZ, a teleconnection from the Asian monsoon region, or an air sea interaction process that relates the warm pools over the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea. However, none of them has addressed the various characteristics of the MSD described by Magaña et al (1999) and Magaña and Caetano (2005). In the present paper, the role of the transient mean flow interaction over the Caribbean Sea is explored. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the transients interact in such a way that the CLLJ reaches maximum intensity when the MSD occurs. This is a period of minimum Perturbation Kinetic Energy in the region, suggesting that a CLLJ stronger than approximately 15 m/s tends to inhibit the amplification of eddies. Transients are crucial dynamic elements to produce precipitation over the Mexico and Central American region. Over the eastern Pacific warm pool, tropical convection and sea surface temperature are related by a sort of Clausius Clapeyron exponential equation. However, there are two branches for the relationship, one for the first maximum in tropical convection during June, and a second one during September, with a relative minimum corresponding to the MSD in July - August. The most interesting aspect of such patterns is that while the June exponential curves occurs at SST larger than 28°C, the curve corresponding to September takes place at lower SSTs, suggesting that transient activity in this period is necessary to enhance tropical convective activity during the latter part of the summer rains in the region. This is exactly the period when PKE increases over the

The importance of resolution on the response of mid-latitude transients to enhanced CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senior, C.A.

1994-01-01

The impact of global warming on the activity of the mid-latitude transients is not well understood. Work with simple models suggests that there will be two competing effects on transient activity. Firstly, there will be a reduction in the baroclinicity due to a smaller pole-equator temperature gradient and secondly there will be increased moisture availability in a warmer atmosphere. A comparison of the mid-latitude transients from two versions of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM run at different resolutions is presented and the importance of resolution on the simulation of the high and low frequency variability is discussed. At higher resolution, one of the largest responses of the model to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 is an enhancement of the westerly flow in the North Atlantic, but this is much reduced at lower resolution. Consistency is sort between changes in the time mean flow and the transient behavior

Analysis of loss of normal feedwater transient using RELAP5/MOD1/NSC; KNU1 plant simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hho Jung; Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Kim, Jin Soo

1986-01-01

Simulation of the system thermal-hydraulic parameters was carried out following the KNU1(Korea Nuclear Unit-1) loss of normal feedwater transient sequence occurred on november 14, 1984. Results were compared with the plant transient data, and good agreements were obtained. Some deviations were found in the parameters such as the steam flowrate and the RCS(Reactor Coolant System) average temperature, around the time of reactor trip. It can be expected since the thermal-hydraulic parameters encounter rapid transitions due to the large reduction of the reactor thermal power in a short period of time and, thereby, the plant data involve transient uncertainties. The analysis was performed using the RELAP5/MOD1/NSC developed through some modifications of the interphase drag and the wall heat transfer modeling routines of the RELAP5/MOD1/CY018. (Author)

BWR transient analysis using neutronic / thermal hydraulic coupled codes including uncertainty quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartmann, C.; Sanchez, V.; Tietsch, W.; Stieglitz, R.

2012-01-01

The KIT is involved in the development and qualification of best estimate methodologies for BWR transient analysis in cooperation with industrial partners. The goal is to establish the most advanced thermal hydraulic system codes coupled with 3D reactor dynamic codes to be able to perform a more realistic evaluation of the BWR behavior under accidental conditions. For this purpose a computational chain based on the lattice code (SCALE6/GenPMAXS), the coupled neutronic/thermal hydraulic code (TRACE/PARCS) as well as a Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity package (SUSA) has been established and applied to different kind of transients of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). This paper will describe the multidimensional models of the plant elaborated for TRACE and PARCS to perform the investigations mentioned before. For the uncertainty quantification of the coupled code TRACE/PARCS and specifically to take into account the influence of the kinetics parameters in such studies, the PARCS code has been extended to facilitate the change of model parameters in such a way that the SUSA package can be used in connection with TRACE/PARCS for the U and S studies. This approach will be presented in detail. The results obtained for a rod drop transient with TRACE/PARCS using the SUSA-methodology showed clearly the importance of some kinetic parameters on the transient progression demonstrating that the coupling of a best-estimate coupled codes with uncertainty and sensitivity tools is very promising and of great importance for the safety assessment of nuclear reactors. (authors)

RF control at transient beamloading for high-duty-factor linacs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chernogubovsky, M.A.; Sugimoto, Masayoshi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

1998-08-01

An effective RF control with the transient beamloading is the major issue in the operation of the high-duty-factor linacs to suppress the undesirable beam loss. The RF control method is considered to obtain the control principle and the state equation, under the analysis of electrodynamical properties of the excitation in the resonator of the linac due to the transient beamloading. The concept of the directional selective coupling is applied for the RF system to define the main characteristics and to optimize the RF control parameters. (author)

Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

A sensitivity analysis of hazardous waste disposal site climatic and soil design parameters using HELP3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adelman, D.D.; Stansbury, J.

1997-01-01

The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, And Liability Act (CERCLA), and subsequent amendments have formed a comprehensive framework to deal with hazardous wastes on the national level. Key to this waste management is guidance on design (e.g., cover and bottom leachate control systems) of hazardous waste landfills. The objective of this research was to investigate the sensitivity of leachate volume at hazardous waste disposal sites to climatic, soil cover, and vegetative cover (Leaf Area Index) conditions. The computer model HELP3 which has the capability to simulate double bottom liner systems as called for in hazardous waste disposal sites was used in the analysis. HELP3 was used to model 54 combinations of climatic conditions, disposal site soil surface curve numbers, and leaf area index values to investigate how sensitive disposal site leachate volume was to these three variables. Results showed that leachate volume from the bottom double liner system was not sensitive to these parameters. However, the cover liner system leachate volume was quite sensitive to climatic conditions and less sensitive to Leaf Area Index and curve number values. Since humid locations had considerably more cover liner system leachate volume than and locations, different design standards may be appropriate for humid conditions than for and conditions

Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S. [Univ. of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, Lethbridge, Alberta (Canada)

2008-06-15

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter {mu} {+-} 1{sigma}), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha{sup -1}{center_dot}year{sup -1}. This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat

Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S.

2008-01-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter μ ± 1σ), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha -1 ·year -1 . This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat boreal forests, was shown to be

Parameter analysis and optimization of the energy and economic performance of solar-assisted liquid desiccant cooling system under different climate conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, Ronghui; Lu, Lin; Huang, Yu

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Operation conditions significantly affect energy & economic performance of SLDCS. • Control parameters in three areas were optimized by Multi-Population Genetic Algorithm. • Solar collector area showed the greatest effect on system performance for humid areas. • Desiccant concentration showed greatest effect on system performance for dry areas. • Requirement of collector area, heating water and desiccant flow rates for humid areas is highest. - Abstract: Operation conditions significantly affect the energy and economic performance of solar-assisted liquid desiccant cooling systems. This study optimized the system control parameters for buildings in different climates, i.e., Singapore (hot and humid), Beijing (moderate) and Boulder (hot and dry), with a multi-parameter optimization based on the Multi-Population Genetic Algorithm to obtain optimal system performance in terms of relatively maximum electricity saving rate with a minimum cost payback period. The results indicated that the selection of operation parameters is significantly influenced by climatic conditions. The solar collector installation area exhibited the greatest effect on both energy and economic performance in humid areas, and the heating water flow rate was also important. For dry areas, a change in desiccant concentration had the largest effect on system performance. Although the effect of the desiccant flow rate was significant in humid cities, it appeared to have little influence over buildings in dry areas. Furthermore, the requirements of the solar collector installation area in humid areas were much higher. The optimized area was up to 70 m"2 in Singapore compared with 27.5 m"2 in Boulder. Similar results were found for the flow rates of heating water and the desiccant solution. Applying the optimization, humid cities could achieve an electricity saving of more than 40% with a six-year payback period. The optimal performance for hot and dry areas of a 38% electricity

Comparative first- and second-law parametric study of transient diesel engine operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rakopoulos, C.D.; Giakoumis, E.G.

2006-01-01

A computer model is developed for studying the first- and second-law (availability) balances of a turbocharged diesel engine, operating under transient load conditions. Special attention is paid to the direct comparison between the results from the two laws, for various operating parameters of the engine. The model simulates the transient operation on a degree crank angle basis, using a detailed analysis of mechanical friction, a separate consideration for the processes of each cylinder during a cycle ('multi-cylinder' model) and a mathematical model of the fuel pump. Experimental data taken from a marine duty, turbocharged diesel engine, located at the authors' laboratory, are used for the evaluation of the model's predictive capabilities. The first-law (e.g., engine speed, fuel pump rack position, engine load, etc.) and second-law (e.g., irreversibilities, heat loss and exhaust gases) terms for the diesel engine cylinder are both computed and depicted in comparison, using detailed diagrams, for various engine operating parameters. It is revealed that, at least for the specific engine type and operation, a thermodynamic, dynamic or design parameter can have a conflicting impact on the engine transient response as regards energy and availability properties, implying that both a first- and second-law optimization is needed for best performance evaluation

Parameters Affecting the Transient Response of an Impacting Beam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiping Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Impact causes shock waves that may be unexpected and damaging. A computationally efficient impact model with a generic beam which is discrete in time and continuous in space was undertaken; an Euler-Bernoulli beam with adjustable boundary conditions and variable contact location is numerically studied under a pulse loading. Experiments on a cantilever beam were carried out to verify the effects of influential parameters. A half-sine pulse excitation was applied through a mechanical shaker, and the deflection was captured by a high speed camera. Numerous test cases were conducted that varied pulse duration, pulse amplitude, and clearance. Decreasing the pulse duration lowers all deflection amplitudes, but the time in contact is insensitive. No gap causes minimal beam response, and increasing gap generates greater deflection. Representative test cases were selected for validating the theoretical model. When comparing numerical simulation with experimental results, satisfactory agreement for amplitude and duration can be reached even with raw input parameters. The contribution of this study is the incorporation of unique pulse loading, changeable boundary conditions, adjustable contact/impact situations, comprehensive parameter studies, and high speed photography.

Critical safety parameters: The logical approach to refresher training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, A.R.; Pilkington, W.; Turner, S.

1991-01-01

Nuclear power plant managers must ensure that control room staff are able to perform effectively. This is of particular importance through the longer term after initial authorization. Traditionally refresher training has been based on delivery of fragmented training packages typically derived from the initial authorization training programs. Various approaches have been taken to provide a more integrated refresher training program. However, methods such as job and task analysis and subject matter expert derived training have tended to develop without a focused clear overall training objective. The primary objective of all control room staff training is to ensure a proper and safe response to all plant transients. At the Point Lepreau Nuclear Plant, this has defined the Critical Safety Parameter based refresher training program. The overall objective of the Critical Safety Parameter training program is to ensure that control room staff can monitor and control a discrete set of plant parameters. Maintenance of the selected parameters within defined boundaries assures adequate cooling of the fuel and containment of radioactivity. Control room staff need to be able to reliably respond correctly to plant transients under potentially high stress conditions,. utilizing the essential knowledge and skills to deal with such transients. The inference is that the knowledge and skills must be limited to that which can be reliably recalled. This paper describes how the Point Lepreau Nuclear Plant has developed a refresher training program on the basis of a limited number of Critical Safety Parameters. Through this approach, it has been possible to define the essential set of knowledge and skills which ensures a correct response to plant transients

Modelling of an ULOF transient in a sodium fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Droin, Jean-Baptiste

2016-01-01

particular attention is paid to stabilize boiling occurrence which leads to minimize severe accident consequences.The phenomena occurring during the various ULOF transients are modelled in accordance to the level of details required to catch all the possible bifurcations of the transient. The tool coupled different (2D, 1D and 0D) models of thermics, thermo-hydraulics, core degradation (material melting and motions) and neutronics. The assumptions associated to these models are highlighted, discussed and validated. The physical tool capability of simulating the various realistic ULOF transients (without boiling, with stabilized boiling or flow excursion after boiling) is demonstrated by comparisons to experimental results (GR19, SCARABEE experiments) and to mechanistic simulations (CATHARE2 and SIMMER III).Parametric studies are then carried out on two variables: the fuel burn-up and the model of neutronic feedbacks. They underline the important influence of these parameters on the transient and the final core state. Finally, a preliminary sensitivity analysis (2000 simulations) is performed on 26 uncertain parameters (linked to initial core configuration, accident features, model uncertainties and radial nodalization). The variability of the final core state is underlined and quantified; only around 25% of cases lead to core degradation. The main influent parameters on transient phenomena are also identified, enabling to prioritize core design and safety studies. In the future, this tool will be used for safety-informed design and stability analyses of fast reactor systems, allowing to emphasize the main dominant phenomena and trends of significance for safety assessment. (author) [fr

Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pan, Z.; Christensen, J. H.; Arritt, R. W.

2001-01-01

, an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over...... to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all...... regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2x3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial...

Application of statistical method for FBR plant transient computation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, Norihiro; Mochizuki, Hiroyasu

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A statistical method with a large trial number up to 10,000 is applied to the plant system analysis. • A turbine trip test conducted at the “Monju” reactor is selected as a plant transient. • A reduction method of trial numbers is discussed. • The result with reduced trial number can express the base regions of the computed distribution. -- Abstract: It is obvious that design tolerances, errors included in operation, and statistical errors in empirical correlations effect on the transient behavior. The purpose of the present study is to apply above mentioned statistical errors to a plant system computation in order to evaluate the statistical distribution contained in the transient evolution. A selected computation case is the turbine trip test conducted at 40% electric power of the prototype fast reactor “Monju”. All of the heat transport systems of “Monju” are modeled with the NETFLOW++ system code which has been validated using the plant transient tests of the experimental fast reactor Joyo, and “Monju”. The effects of parameters on upper plenum temperature are confirmed by sensitivity analyses, and dominant parameters are chosen. The statistical errors are applied to each computation deck by using a pseudorandom number and the Monte-Carlo method. The dSFMT (Double precision SIMD-oriented Fast Mersenne Twister) that is developed version of Mersenne Twister (MT), is adopted as the pseudorandom number generator. In the present study, uniform random numbers are generated by dSFMT, and these random numbers are transformed to the normal distribution by the Box–Muller method. Ten thousands of different computations are performed at once. In every computation case, the steady calculation is performed for 12,000 s, and transient calculation is performed for 4000 s. In the purpose of the present statistical computation, it is important that the base regions of distribution functions should be calculated precisely. A large number of

GPS IPW as a Meteorological Parameter and Climate Global Change Indicator

Science.gov (United States)

Kruczyk, M.; Liwosz, T.

2011-12-01

Paper focuses on comprehensive investigation of the GPS derived IPW (Integrated Precipitable Water, also IWV) as a geophysical tool. GPS meteorology is now widely acknowledged indirect method of atmosphere sensing. First we demonstrate GPS IPW quality. Most thorough inter-technique comparisons of directly measured IPW are attainable only for some observatories (note modest percentage of GPS stations equipped with meteorological devices). Nonetheless we have managed to compare IPW series derived from GPS tropospheric solutions (ZTD mostly from IGS and EPN solutions) and some independent techniques. IPW values from meteorological sources we used are: radiosoundings, sun photometer and input fields of numerical weather prediction model. We can treat operational NWP models as meteorological database within which we can calculate IWV for all GPS stations independently from network of direct measurements (COSMO-LM model maintained by Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management was tried). Sunphotometer (CIMEL-318, Central Geophysical Observatory IGF PAS, Belsk, Poland) data seems the most genuine source - so we decided for direct collocation of GPS measurements and sunphotometer placing permanent GPS receiver on the roof of Belsk Observatory. Next we analyse IPW as geophysical parameter: IPW demonstrates some physical effects evoked by station location (height and series correlation coefficient as a function of distance) and weather patterns like dominant wind directions (in case of neighbouring stations). Deficiency of surface humidity data to model IPW is presented for different climates. This inadequacy and poor humidity data representation in NWP model extremely encourages investigating information exchange potential between Numerical Model and GPS network. The second and most important aspect of this study concerns long series of IPW (daily averaged) which can serve as climatological information indicator (water vapour role in climate system is hard to

Indoor climate optimization with limited resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santos, A.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo

This report presents experimental data and models for optimisation of the indoor climate parameters temperature, noise, draught and window opening. Results are based on experiments with human subjects performed in climate chambers at University of the Philippines. The report may assist building...... designers to balance attention and resources between the parameters of the indoor climate when resources are less than optimal....

Transient Go: A Mobile App for Transient Astronomy Outreach

Science.gov (United States)

Crichton, D.; Mahabal, A.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Drake, A.; Early, J.; Ivezic, Z.; Jacoby, S.; Kanbur, S.

2016-12-01

Augmented Reality (AR) is set to revolutionize human interaction with the real world as demonstrated by the phenomenal success of `Pokemon Go'. That very technology can be used to rekindle the interest in science at the school level. We are in the process of developing a prototype app based on sky maps that will use AR to introduce different classes of astronomical transients to students as they are discovered i.e. in real-time. This will involve transient streams from surveys such as the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) today and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in the near future. The transient streams will be combined with archival and latest image cut-outs and other auxiliary data as well as historical and statistical perspectives on each of the transient types being served. Such an app could easily be adapted to work with various NASA missions and NSF projects to enrich the student experience.

Could the cosmic acceleration be transient?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guimaraes, Antonio C.C.; Lima, J.A.S. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IAG/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas

2011-07-01

Full text: The possibility of a transient cosmic acceleration appears in several theoretical scenarios and is theoretically interesting because it solves some difficulties inherent to eternally accelerating universes (like {Lambda}CDM). On the observational side, some authors, using a dynamical Ansatz for the dark energy equation of state, have suggested that the cosmic acceleration have already peaked and that we are currently witnessing its slowing down. Here, a possible slowing down of the cosmic expansion is investigated through a cosmographic approach. By expanding the luminous distance to fourth order and fitting the SNe Ia data from the most recent compilations (Union, Constitution and Union 2), the marginal likelihood distribution for the deceleration parameter today indicates that there is a considerable probability for q{sub 0} > 0. Also in contrast to the prediction of the {Lambda}CDM model, the cosmographic q(z) reconstruction suggests that the cosmic acceleration could already have peaked and be presently slowing down, what would imply that the recent accelerated expansion of the Universe is a transient phenomenon. It is also shown that to describe a transient acceleration the luminous distance needs to be expanded at least to fourth order. The present cosmographic results depend neither on the validity of general relativity nor on the matter-energy contents of the Universe. (author)

Transiently chaotic neural networks with piecewise linear output functions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, S.-S. [Department of Mathematics, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Shih, C.-W. [Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta-Hsueh Road, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: cwshih@math.nctu.edu.tw

2009-01-30

Admitting both transient chaotic phase and convergent phase, the transiently chaotic neural network (TCNN) provides superior performance than the classical networks in solving combinatorial optimization problems. We derive concrete parameter conditions for these two essential dynamic phases of the TCNN with piecewise linear output function. The confirmation for chaotic dynamics of the system results from a successful application of the Marotto theorem which was recently clarified. Numerical simulation on applying the TCNN with piecewise linear output function is carried out to find the optimal solution of a travelling salesman problem. It is demonstrated that the performance is even better than the previous TCNN model with logistic output function.

Transient flows occurring during the accelerated crucible rotation technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, Atara; Horowitz, Yigal

1992-11-01

The transient flows occurring after a change in the angular velocity of the cylindrical container are described. The dependence of the transient (known as spin-up or spin-down time) on experimental parameters as kinematic viscosity, cylinder dimensions and the cylinder's initial and final angular velocities are elucidates by a review of the literature. It is emphasized that with large Rossby numbers the spin-up time is longer and the amount of fluid mixing is greater than small and moderate Rossby numbers. It is also elucidated that most crystal growth crucibles cannot be considered as infinitely-long cylinders for the evaluation of the fluid dynamics (authors)

SAT-MAP-CLIMATE project results[SATellite base bio-geophysical parameter MAPping and aggregation modelling for CLIMATE models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bay Hasager, C.; Woetmann Nielsen, N.; Soegaard, H.; Boegh, E.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Jensen, N.O.; Schultz Rasmussen, M.; Astrup, P.; Dellwik, E.

2002-08-01

Earth Observation (EO) data from imaging satellites are analysed with respect to albedo, land and sea surface temperatures, land cover types and vegetation parameters such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI). The observed parameters are used in the DMI-HIRLAM-D05 weather prediction model in order to improve the forecasting. The effect of introducing actual sea surface temperatures from NOAA AVHHR compared to climatological mean values, shows a more pronounced land-sea breeze effect which is also observable in field observations. The albedo maps from NOAA AVHRR are rather similar to the climatological mean values so for the HIRLAM model this is insignicant, yet most likely of some importance in the HIRHAM regional climate model. Land cover type maps are assigned local roughness values determined from meteorological field observations. Only maps with a spatial resolution around 25 m can adequately map the roughness variations of the typical patch size distribution in Denmark. A roughness map covering Denmark is aggregated (ie area-average non-linearly) by a microscale aggregation model that takes the non-linear turbulent responses of each roughness step change between patches in an arbitrary pattern into account. The effective roughnesses are calculated into a 15 km by 15 km grid for the HIRLAM model. The effect of hedgerows is included as an added roughness effect as a function of hedge density mapped from a digital vector map. Introducing the new effective roughness maps into the HIRLAM model appears to remedy on the seasonal wind speed bias over land and sea in spring. A new parameterisation on the effective roughness for scalar surface fluxes is developed and tested on synthetic data. Further is a method for the estimation the evapotranspiration from albedo, surface temperatures and NDVI succesfully compared to field observations. The HIRLAM predictions of water vapour at 12 GMT are used for atmospheric correction of

Transient states of air parameters after a stoppage and re-start of the main fan / Stany przejściowe parametrów powietrza po postoju i załączeniu wentylatora głównego

Science.gov (United States)

Wasilewski, Stanisław

2012-12-01

A stoppage of the main ventilation fan constitutes a disturbance of ventilation conditions of a deepmine and its effects can cause serious hazards by generating transient states of air and gas flow. Main ventilation fans are the basic deep-mine facilities; therefore, under mining regulations it is only allowed to stop them with the consent and under the conditions specified by the mine maintenance manager. The stoppage of the main ventilation fan may be accompanied by transient air parameters, including the air pressure and flow patterns. There is even the likelihood of reversing the direction of air flow, which, in case of methane mines, can pose a major hazard, particularly in sections of the mine with fire fields or large goaf areas. At the same time, stoppages of deep-mine main ventilation fans create interesting research conditions, which if conducted under the supervision of the monitoring systems, can provide much information about the transient processes of pressure, air and gas flow in underground workings. This article is a discussion of air parameter observations in mine workings made as part of such experiments. It also presents the procedure of the experiments, conducted in three mines. They involved the observation of transient processes of mine air parameters, and most interestingly, the recording of pressure and air and gas flow in the workings of the mine ventilation networks by mine monitoring systems and using specialist recording instruments. In mining practice, both in Poland and elsewhere, software tools and computer modelling methods are used to try and reproduce the conditions prior to and during disasters based on the existing network model and monitoring system data. The use of these tools to simulate the alternatives of combating and liquidation of the gas-fire hazard after its occurrence is an important issue. Measurement data collected during the experiments provides interesting research material for the verification and validation of

Implications of global climate change on water resources of the south Asian region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lal, M.

1994-01-01

An assessment of future changes in the mean and/or variances of hydrological parameters due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases is much warranted for south Asia for developing adaptive response strategies. The evolution of changes in surface meteorological as well as hydrological parameters in the transient numerical experiments with the current state-of-art coupled climate models holds much promise for a better understanding of the interannual variability of climate and its change on a regional scale. A plausible future hydrological scenario for the south Asian region based on the numerical results obtained from the reference control and greenhouse warming simulations (using the Business-as-Usual scenario of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere) with the Hamburg climate model is presented in this paper. For validation of regional-scale model-simulated hydrology and the assessment of future changes, analysis of data has been performed for annual mean conditions as well as for two seasons, namely, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). Their results suggest a rise in annual mean surface air temperature of about 1.0 to 2.5 C over the ocean and between 2.0 to 4.5 C over the land regions of south Asia during the next hundred years. During the NH-winter, surface warming in the land regions of India and China is considerably higher (3.6 C) than during the NH-summer (2.7 C). The model simulates an increase in total (averaged for land points over the study area) annual precipitation of about 16 cm per year in a warmer atmosphere

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Transient chaotic transport in dissipative drift motion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oyarzabal, R.S. [Pós-Graduação em Ciências/Física, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, 84030-900, Ponta Grossa, PR (Brazil); Szezech, J.D. [Departamento de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, 84030-900, Ponta Grossa, PR (Brazil); Batista, A.M., E-mail: antoniomarcosbatista@gmail.com [Departamento de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, 84030-900, Ponta Grossa, PR (Brazil); Souza, S.L.T. de [Departamento de Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de São João del Rei, 36420-000, Ouro Branco, MG (Brazil); Caldas, I.L. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, 05315-970, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Viana, R.L. [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, 81531-990, Curitiba, PR (Brazil); Sanjuán, M.A.F. [Departamento de Física, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Tulipán s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Madrid (Spain)

2016-04-22

Highlights: • We consider a situation for which a chaotic transient is present in the dynamics of the two-wave model with damping. • The damping in plasma models can be a way for study a realistic behavior of confinement due the collisional effect. • The escape time as a function of the damping obey a power-law scaling. • We have made a qualitative transport analysis with a simple model that can be useful for more complete models. • We have shown that the pattern of the basin of attraction depends on the damping parameter. - Abstract: We investigate chaotic particle transport in magnetised plasmas with two electrostatic drift waves. Considering dissipation in the drift motion, we verify that the removed KAM surfaces originate periodic attractors with their corresponding basins of attraction. We show that the properties of the basins depend on the dissipation and the space-averaged escape time decays exponentially when the dissipation increases. We find positive finite time Lyapunov exponents in dissipative drift motion, consequently the trajectories exhibit transient chaotic transport. These features indicate how the transient plasma transport depends on the dissipation.

Reducing the uncertainty of parameters controlling seasonal carbon and water fluxes in Chinese forests and its implication for simulated climate sensitivities

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong

2017-08-01

Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.

"Climate Cost of Cultivation": A New Crop Index Method to Quantify Farmers' Cost of Climate Change Exemplified in Rural India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

N. Jangle (Nihar); M. Mehra (Mamta); D.M. Dror (David)

2016-01-01

textabstractWe model the impact of agricultural droughts with a new multi-parameter index (using both climatic and non-climatic parameters) and propose a new risk transfer solution for crop insurance, called Climate Cost of Cultivation (CCC). We used 1979/80 to 2012/13 data relevant for wheat in

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Analysis of short-term reactor cavity transient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, T.C.; Fischer, S.R.

1981-01-01

Following the transient of a hypothetical loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) in a nuclear reactor, peak pressures are reached within the first 0.03 s at different locations inside the reactor cavity. Due to the complicated multidimensional nature of the reactor cavity, the short-term analysis of the LOCA transient cannot be performed by using traditional containment codes, such as CONTEMPT. The advanced containment code, BEACON/MOD3, developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), can be adapted for such analysis. This code provides Eulerian, one and two-dimensional, nonhomogeneous, nonequilibrium flow modeling as well as lumped parameter, homogeneous, equilibrium flow modeling for the solution of two-component, two-phase flow problems. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the capability of the BEACON code to analyze complex containment geometry such as a reactor cavity

Statistical analysis of dynamic parameters of the core

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionov, V.S.

2007-01-01

The transients of various types were investigated for the cores of zero power critical facilities in RRC KI and NPP. Dynamic parameters of neutron transients were explored by tool statistical analysis. Its have sufficient duration, few channels for currents of chambers and reactivity and also some channels for technological parameters. On these values the inverse period. reactivity, lifetime of neutrons, reactivity coefficients and some effects of a reactivity are determinate, and on the values were restored values of measured dynamic parameters as result of the analysis. The mathematical means of statistical analysis were used: approximation(A), filtration (F), rejection (R), estimation of parameters of descriptive statistic (DSP), correlation performances (kk), regression analysis(KP), the prognosis (P), statistician criteria (SC). The calculation procedures were realized by computer language MATLAB. The reasons of methodical and statistical errors are submitted: inadequacy of model operation, precision neutron-physical parameters, features of registered processes, used mathematical model in reactivity meters, technique of processing for registered data etc. Examples of results of statistical analysis. Problems of validity of the methods used for definition and certification of values of statistical parameters and dynamic characteristics are considered (Authors)

Characterizing hydraulic fractures in shale gas reservoirs using transient pressure tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cong Wang

2015-06-01

This work presents an unconventional gas reservoir simulator and its application to quantify hydraulic fractures in shale gas reservoirs using transient pressure data. The numerical model incorporates most known physical processes for gas production from unconventional reservoirs, including two-phase flow of liquid and gas, Klinkenberg effect, non-Darcy flow, and nonlinear adsorption. In addition, the model is able to handle various types and scales of fractures or heterogeneity using continuum, discrete or hybrid modeling approaches under different well production conditions of varying rate or pressure. Our modeling studies indicate that the most sensitive parameter of hydraulic fractures to early transient gas flow through extremely low permeability rock is actually the fracture-matrix contacting area, generated by fracturing stimulation. Based on this observation, it is possible to use transient pressure testing data to estimate the area of fractures generated from fracturing operations. We will conduct a series of modeling studies and present a methodology using typical transient pressure responses, simulated by the numerical model, to estimate fracture areas created or to quantity hydraulic fractures with traditional well testing technology. The type curves of pressure transients from this study can be used to quantify hydraulic fractures in field application.

Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

Science.gov (United States)

Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

2018-01-01

Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 1. Formulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

Mathematical formulation for the variable thickness transient (VTT) model of an aquifer system is presented. The basic assumptions are described. Specific data requirements for the physical parameters are discussed. The boundary definitions and solution techniques of the numerical formulation of the system of equations are presented

Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M Granger; Frame, David J; Keith, David W

2010-07-13

There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked "cloud radiative feedbacks" as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm(-2) in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a "basic state change" as > or =0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8-1.8 degrees C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 degrees C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the "likely" range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty.

MOSFiT: Modular Open Source Fitter for Transients

Science.gov (United States)

Guillochon, James; Nicholl, Matt; Villar, V. Ashley; Mockler, Brenna; Narayan, Gautham; Mandel, Kaisey S.; Berger, Edo; Williams, Peter K. G.

2018-05-01

Much of the progress made in time-domain astronomy is accomplished by relating observational multiwavelength time-series data to models derived from our understanding of physical laws. This goal is typically accomplished by dividing the task in two: collecting data (observing), and constructing models to represent that data (theorizing). Owing to the natural tendency for specialization, a disconnect can develop between the best available theories and the best available data, potentially delaying advances in our understanding new classes of transients. We introduce MOSFiT: the Modular Open Source Fitter for Transients, a Python-based package that downloads transient data sets from open online catalogs (e.g., the Open Supernova Catalog), generates Monte Carlo ensembles of semi-analytical light-curve fits to those data sets and their associated Bayesian parameter posteriors, and optionally delivers the fitting results back to those same catalogs to make them available to the rest of the community. MOSFiT is designed to help bridge the gap between observations and theory in time-domain astronomy; in addition to making the application of existing models and creation of new models as simple as possible, MOSFiT yields statistically robust predictions for transient characteristics, with a standard output format that includes all the setup information necessary to reproduce a given result. As large-scale surveys such as that conducted with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), discover entirely new classes of transients, tools such as MOSFiT will be critical for enabling rapid comparison of models against data in statistically consistent, reproducible, and scientifically beneficial ways.

Optimized Extreme Learning Machine for Power System Transient Stability Prediction Using Synchrophasors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanjun Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A new optimized extreme learning machine- (ELM- based method for power system transient stability prediction (TSP using synchrophasors is presented in this paper. First, the input features symbolizing the transient stability of power systems are extracted from synchronized measurements. Then, an ELM classifier is employed to build the TSP model. And finally, the optimal parameters of the model are optimized by using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. The novelty of the proposal is in the fact that it improves the prediction performance of the ELM-based TSP model by using IPSO to optimize the parameters of the model with synchrophasors. And finally, based on the test results on both IEEE 39-bus system and a large-scale real power system, the correctness and validity of the presented approach are verified.

Current interruption transients calculation

CERN Document Server

Peelo, David F

2014-01-01

Provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins, and the circuits involved, and how they can be calculated Current Interruption Transients Calculationis a comprehensive resource for the understanding, calculation and analysis of the transient recovery voltages (TRVs) and related re-ignition or re-striking transients associated with fault current interruption and the switching of inductive and capacitive load currents in circuits. This book provides an original, detailed and practical description of current interruption transients, origins,

Climatic Change. Human Influence?

OpenAIRE

Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

2016-01-01

We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

Transient thermal effects in Alpine permafrost

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Noetzli

2009-04-01

Full Text Available In high mountain areas, permafrost is important because it influences the occurrence of natural hazards, because it has to be considered in construction practices, and because it is sensitive to climate change. The assessment of its distribution and evolution is challenging because of highly variable conditions at and below the surface, steep topography and varying climatic conditions. This paper presents a systematic investigation of effects of topography and climate variability that are important for subsurface temperatures in Alpine bedrock permafrost. We studied the effects of both, past and projected future ground surface temperature variations on the basis of numerical experimentation with simplified mountain topography in order to demonstrate the principal effects. The modeling approach applied combines a distributed surface energy balance model and a three-dimensional subsurface heat conduction scheme. Results show that the past climate variations that essentially influence present-day permafrost temperatures at depth of the idealized mountains are the last glacial period and the major fluctuations in the past millennium. Transient effects from projected future warming, however, are likely larger than those from past climate conditions because larger temperature changes at the surface occur in shorter time periods. We further demonstrate the accelerating influence of multi-lateral warming in steep and complex topography for a temperature signal entering the subsurface as compared to the situation in flat areas. The effects of varying and uncertain material properties (i.e., thermal properties, porosity, and freezing characteristics on the subsurface temperature field were examined in sensitivity studies. A considerable influence of latent heat due to water in low-porosity bedrock was only shown for simulations over time periods of decades to centuries. At the end, the model was applied to the topographic setting of the Matterhorn

Transient ischemic attack presenting in an elderly patient with transient ophthalmic manifestations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sparshi Jain

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Transient ischemic attack (TIA is a transient neurological deficit of cerebrovascular origin without infarction which may last only for a short period and can have varying presentations. We report a case of 58-year-old male with presenting features of sudden onset transient vertical diplopia and transient rotatory nystagmus which self-resolved within 12 h. Patient had no history of any systemic illness. On investigating, hematological investigations and neuroimaging could not explain these sudden and transient findings. A TIA could possibly explain these sudden and transient ocular findings in our patient. This case report aims to highlight the importance of TIA for ophthalmologists. We must not ignore these findings as these could be warning signs of an impending stroke which may or may not be detected on neuroimaging. Thus, early recognition, primary prevention strategies, and timely intervention are needed.

Steady-state pattern electroretinogram and short-duration transient visual evoked potentials in glaucomatous and healthy eyes.

Science.gov (United States)

Amarasekera, Dilru C; Resende, Arthur F; Waisbourd, Michael; Puri, Sanjeev; Moster, Marlene R; Hark, Lisa A; Katz, L Jay; Fudemberg, Scott J; Mantravadi, Anand V

2018-01-01

This study evaluates two rapid electrophysiological glaucoma diagnostic tests that may add a functional perspective to glaucoma diagnosis. This study aimed to determine the ability of two office-based electrophysiological diagnostic tests, steady-state pattern electroretinogram and short-duration transient visual evoked potentials, to discern between glaucomatous and healthy eyes. This is a cross-sectional study in a hospital setting. Forty-one patients with glaucoma and 41 healthy volunteers participated in the study. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram and short-duration transient visual evoked potential testing was conducted in glaucomatous and healthy eyes. A 64-bar-size stimulus with both a low-contrast and high-contrast setting was used to compare steady-state pattern electroretinogram parameters in both groups. A low-contrast and high-contrast checkerboard stimulus was used to measure short-duration transient visual evoked potential parameters in both groups. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram parameters compared were MagnitudeD, MagnitudeD/Magnitude ratio, and the signal-to-noise ratio. Short-duration transient visual evoked potential parameters compared were amplitude and latency. MagnitudeD was significantly lower in glaucoma patients when using a low-contrast (P = 0.001) and high-contrast (P state pattern electroretinogram stimulus. MagnitudeD/Magnitude ratio and SNR were significantly lower in the glaucoma group when using a high-contrast 64-bar-size stimulus (P state pattern electroretinogram was effectively able to discern between glaucomatous and healthy eyes. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram may thus have a role as a clinically useful electrophysiological diagnostic tool. © 2017 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

A FRAMEWORK FOR INTERPRETING FAST RADIO TRANSIENTS SEARCH EXPERIMENTS: APPLICATION TO THE V-FASTR EXPERIMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trott, Cathryn M.; Tingay, Steven J.; Wayth, Randall B.; Macquart, Jean-Pierre R.; Palaniswamy, Divya; Thompson, David R.; Wagstaff, Kiri L.; Majid, Walid A.; Burke-Spolaor, Sarah; Deller, Adam T.; Brisken, Walter F.

2013-01-01

We define a framework for determining constraints on the detection rate of fast transient events from a population of underlying sources, with a view to incorporate beam shape, frequency effects, scattering effects, and detection efficiency into the metric. We then demonstrate a method for combining independent data sets into a single event rate constraint diagram, using a probabilistic approach to the limits on parameter space. We apply this new framework to present the latest results from the V-FASTR experiment, a commensal fast transients search using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). In the 20 cm band, V-FASTR now has the ability to probe the regions of parameter space of importance for the observed Lorimer and Keane fast radio transient candidates by combining the information from observations with differing bandwidths, and properly accounting for the source dispersion measure, VLBA antenna beam shape, experiment time sampling, and stochastic nature of events. We then apply the framework to combine the results of the V-FASTR and Allen Telescope Array Fly's Eye experiments, demonstrating their complementarity. Expectations for fast transients experiments for the SKA Phase I dish array are then computed, and the impact of large differential bandwidths is discussed.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

Fast reactor fuel pin behavior analyses in a LOF type transient event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizuno, Tomoyasu; Koyama, Shin-ichi; Kaito, Takeji; Uwaba, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Kenya

2013-06-01

In order to evaluate integrity limiting parameters of fuel pins during fast reactor core transient events, such as fuel center line temperature and cladding maximum temperature, fuel pin behavior calculations were made using the fast reactor fuel pin performance code CEDAR. The temperature histories of fuel pins during a loss of flow (LOF) type transient events was calculated based on Ross and Stoute type gap conductance model and constant gap conductance model, which is used in a core transient calculation code like HIPRAC. The calculated maximum temperatures of cladding and adjacent coolant channel were lower in the case with Ross and Stoute type model than in the case of constant gap conductance model due to the dynamic change of gap conductance of former case. It is indicated that core transient calculations with constant gap conductance give conservative cladding and coolant temperatures than that with Ross and Stoute type gap conductance model which is thought to be realistic. (author)

A discussion of the eccentric binary hypothesis for transient X-ray sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avni, Y.; Goldman, I.

1979-01-01

The eccentric binary hypothesis for transient x-ray sources in the framework of the gradual acceleration stellar wind model proposed by Barlow and Cohen is examined. It is found that a consideration of the ratio of maximum to minimum luminosities and of the ratio of the durations of the high and low states, for a typical transient x-ray source, yields a rather high eccentricity, despite the gradual acceleration of the wind. When typical physical parameters for the binary members are taken into account, we find that a consistent description is possible only for very eccentric orbits (e>=0.9), thus the model is inadequate as a general explanation of the x-ray transient phenomenon. The recurrent transient x-ray source 4U 1630-47, which was considered in ihe past to be a realization of the eccentric binary model is studied and it is demonstrated that it cannot be described consistently within the framework of the model, unless the optical primary is very peculiar. (author)

Transient analyzer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muir, M.D.

1975-01-01

The design and design philosophy of a high performance, extremely versatile transient analyzer is described. This sub-system was designed to be controlled through the data acquisition computer system which allows hands off operation. Thus it may be placed on the experiment side of the high voltage safety break between the experimental device and the control room. This analyzer provides control features which are extremely useful for data acquisition from PPPL diagnostics. These include dynamic sample rate changing, which may be intermixed with multiple post trigger operations with variable length blocks using normal, peak to peak or integrate modes. Included in the discussion are general remarks on the advantages of adding intelligence to transient analyzers, a detailed description of the characteristics of the PPPL transient analyzer, a description of the hardware, firmware, control language and operation of the PPPL transient analyzer, and general remarks on future trends in this type of instrumentation both at PPPL and in general

Land use, climate parameters and water quality changes at surroundings of Code River, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Muryanto; Suntoro; Gunawan, T.; Setyono, P.

2018-03-01

Regional development of an area has the potential of adverse impact on land use, vegetation, or green space. The reduction of green open space is known to contribute to global warming. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming has become a serious and significant phenomenon in human life. It affects not only ecological environment but also social and cultural environment. Global warming is a rise in global annual temperature due to, one of which, greenhouse gases. The purpose of this research is to determine the effects of land use change on water pollution and climate parameters at Code river. The results showed that Code River is experiencing land use conversion. Rice field was the most extensively reduced land use, by 467.496 ha. Meanwhile, the other land uses, namely plantation, grass, and forest, were reduced by 111.475 ha, 31.218 ha, and 1.307 ha, respectively. The least converted land use was bushed, whose decreased 0.403 ha. The land use conversion in the study area deteriorated the water quality of river, as proven by the increasing trend of COD and BOD from 2012 to 2016. The COD from 2012 to 2016 was 14, 16.6, 18.7, 22.5, and 22.8 ppm, respectively. Meanwhile, the BOD from the same observation years was 6, 7.2, 8.9, 9.3, and 10.3 ppm, respectively.

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

Study on the transient behaviours of MNSR reactor for control rod withdrawal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Shunhai

1995-10-01

The transient behaviours of Miniature Neutron Source Reactor MNSR are analyzed and calculated with the reactor thermohydraulics RETRAN-02 program and the reactor physics MARIA program. The obtained event sequence and consequence from the calculation are compared with the experiments. The effective resonance integral for study on Doppler effect is taken into account. The reactivity temperature coefficient weighting factors are computed. The transient parameters related to reactor power peaking, coolant inlet temperatures, outlet temperatures and coolant mass flow, etc. are computed and compared with the experimental results. (6 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.)

Transient drainage summary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-09-01

This report summarizes the history of transient drainage issues on the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. It defines and describes the UMTRA Project disposal cell transient drainage process and chronicles UMTRA Project treatment of the transient drainage phenomenon. Section 4.0 includes a conceptual cross section of each UMTRA Project disposal site and summarizes design and construction information, the ground water protection strategy, and the potential for transient drainage

TRANSIENT ELECTRONICS CATEGORIZATION

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-24

AFRL-RY-WP-TR-2017-0169 TRANSIENT ELECTRONICS CATEGORIZATION Dr. Burhan Bayraktaroglu Devices for Sensing Branch Aerospace Components & Subsystems...SUBTITLE TRANSIENT ELECTRONICS CATEGORIZATION 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER N/A 6. AUTHOR(S) Dr. Burhan...88ABW-2017-3747, Clearance Date 31 July 2017. Paper contains color. 14. ABSTRACT Transient electronics is an emerging technology area that lacks proper

Maize production in terms of global climate changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bekavac Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

Structural evaluation of electrosleeved tubes under severe accident transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, S.

1999-01-01

A flow stress model was developed for predicting failure of Electrosleeved PWR steam generator tubing under severe accident transients. The Electrosleeve, which is nanocrystalline pure nickel, loses its strength at temperatures greater than 400 C during severe accidents because of grain growth. A grain growth model and the Hall-Petch relationship were used to calculate the loss of flow stress as a function of time and temperature during the accident. Available tensile test data as well as high temperature failure tests on notched Electrosleeved tube specimens were used to derive the basic parameters of the failure model. The model was used to predict the failure temperatures of Electrosleeved tubes with axial cracks in the parent tube during postulated severe accident transients

Transient thermal stresses of work roll by coupled thermoelasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, W. B.; Chen, T. C.; Weng, C. I.

1991-01-01

A numerical method, based on a two-dimensional plane strain model, is developed to predict the transient responses (that include distributions of temperature, thermal deformation, and thermal stress) of work roll during strip rolling by coupled thermoelasticity. The method consists of discretizing the space domain of the problem by finite element method first, and then treating the time domain by implicit time integration techniques. In order to avoid the difficulty in analysis due to relative movement between work roll and its thermal boundary, the energy equation is formulated with respect to a fixed Eulerian reference frame. The effect of thermoelastic coupling term, that is generally disregarded in strip rolling, can be considered and assessed. The influences of some important process parameters, such as rotational speed of the roll and intensity of heat flux, on transient solutions are also included and discussed. Furthermore, since the stress history at any point of the roll in both transient and steady state could be accurately evaluated, it is available to perform the analysis of thermal fatigue for the roll by means of previous data.

Control of climate and litter quality on leaf litter decomposition in different climatic zones.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xinyue; Wang, Wei

2015-09-01

Climate and initial litter quality are the major factors influencing decomposition rates on large scales. We established a comprehensive database of terrestrial leaf litter decomposition, including 785 datasets, to examine the relationship between climate and litter quality and evaluate the factors controlling decomposition on a global scale, the arid and semi-arid (AS) zone, the humid middle and humid low (HL) latitude zones. Initial litter nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentration only increased with mean annual temperature (MAT) in the AS zone and decreased with mean annual precipitation (MAP) in the HL zone. Compared with nutrient content, MAT imposed less effect on initial litter lignin content than MAP. MAT were the most important decomposition driving factors on a global scale as well as in different climatic zones. MAP only significantly affected decomposition constants in AS zone. Although litter quality parameters also showed significant influence on decomposition, their importance was less than the climatic factors. Besides, different litter quality parameters exerted significant influence on decomposition in different climatic zones. Our results emphasized that climate consistently exerted important effects on decomposition constants across different climatic zones.

Effect of pressure on the transient swelling rate of oxide fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruber, E.E.

1982-04-01

An analysis of the transient swelling rate of oxide fuel, based on fission-gas bubble conditions calculated with the FRAS3 code, has been developed and implemented in the code. The need for this capability arises in the coupling of the FRAS3 fission-gas analysis code to the FPIN fuel-pin mechanics code. An efficient means of closely coupling the calculations of swelling strains and stresses between the modules is required. The present analysis provides parameters that allow the FPIN calculation to proceed through a fairly large time step, using estimated swelling rates, to calculate the stresses. These stress values can then be applied in the FRAS3 detailed calculation to refine the swelling calculation, and to provide new values for the parameters to estimate the swelling in the next time step. The swelling rates were calculated for two representative transients and used to estimate swelling over a short time period for various stress levels

A numerical procedure for transient free surface seepage through fracture networks

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Qinghui; Ye, Zuyang; Zhou, Chuangbing

2014-11-01

A parabolic variational inequality (PVI) formulation is presented for the transient free surface seepage problem defined for a whole fracture network. Because the seepage faces are specified as Signorini-type conditions, the PVI formulation can effectively eliminate the singularity of spillpoints that evolve with time. By introducing a continuous penalty function to replace the original Heaviside function, a finite element procedure based on the PVI formulation is developed to predict the transient free surface response in the fracture network. The effects of the penalty parameter on the solution precision are analyzed. A relative error formula for evaluating the flow losses at steady state caused by the penalty parameter is obtained. To validate the proposed method, three typical examples are solved. The solutions for the first example are compared with the experimental results. The results from the last two examples further demonstrate that the orientation, extent and density of fractures significantly affect the free surface seepage behavior in the fracture network.

Asteroids in the High Cadence Transient Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Peña, J.; Fuentes, C.; Förster, F.; Maureira, J. C.; San Martín, J.; Littín, J.; Huijse, P.; Cabrera-Vives, G.; Estévez, P. A.; Galbany, L.; González-Gaitán, S.; Martínez, J.; de Jaeger, Th.; Hamuy, M.

2018-03-01

We report on the serendipitous observations of solar system objects imaged during the High cadence Transient Survey 2014 observation campaign. Data from this high-cadence wide-field survey was originally analyzed for finding variable static sources using machine learning to select the most-likely candidates. In this work, we search for moving transients consistent with solar system objects and derive their orbital parameters. We use a simple, custom motion detection algorithm to link trajectories and assume Keplerian motion to derive the asteroid’s orbital parameters. We use known asteroids from the Minor Planet Center database to assess the detection efficiency of the survey and our search algorithm. Trajectories have an average of nine detections spread over two days, and our fit yields typical errors of {σ }a∼ 0.07 {au}, σ e ∼ 0.07 and σ i ∼ 0.°5 in semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination, respectively, for known asteroids in our sample. We extract 7700 orbits from our trajectories, identifying 19 near-Earth objects, 6687 asteroids, 14 Centaurs, and 15 trans-Neptunian objects. This highlights the complementarity of supernova wide-field surveys for solar system research and the significance of machine learning to clean data of false detections. It is a good example of the data-driven science that Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will deliver.

TRACY transient experiment databook. 2) ramp withdrawal experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Ken; Yamane, Yuichi; Ogawa, Kazuhiko; Aizawa, Eiju; Yanagisawa, Hiroshi; Miyoshi, Yoshinori

2002-03-01

This is a databook of TRACY ''ramp withdrawal'' experiments. TRACY is a reactor to perform supercritical experiments using low-enriched uranyl nitrate aqueous solution. The excess reactivity of TRACY is 3$ at maximum, and it is inserted by feeding the solution to a core tank or by withdrawing a control rod, which is called as the transient rod, from the core. In the ramp withdrawal experiment, the supercritical experiment is initiated by withdrawing the transient rod from the core in a constant speed using a motor drive system. The data in the present databook consist of datasheets and graphs. Experimental conditions and typical values of measured parameters are tabulated in the datasheet. In the graph, power and temperature profiles are plotted. Those data are useful for the investigation of criticality accidents with fissile solutions, and for validation of criticality accident analysis codes. (author)

Transient and steady-state flows in shock tunnels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hannemann, K. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Goettingen (Germany); Jacobs, P.A. [Queensland Univ., Brisbane (Australia). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Thomas, A.; McIntyre, T.J. [Queensland Univ., Brisbane, QLD. (Australia). Dept. of Physics

1999-12-01

Due to the difficulty of measuring all necessary flow quantities in the nozzle reservoir and the test section of high enthalpy shock tunnels, indirect computational methods are necessary to estimate the required flow parameters. In addition to steady state flow computations of the nozzle flow and the flow past wind tunnel models it is necessary to investigate the transient flow in the facility in order to achieve a better understanding of its performance. These transient effects include the nozzle starting flow, the interaction of the shock tube boundary layers and the reflected shock, thermal losses in the shock reflection region and the developing boundary layers in the expanding section of the nozzle. Additionally, the nonequilibrium chemical and thermal relaxation models which are used to compute high enthalpy flows have to be validated with appropriate experimental data. (orig.)

Transient and steady-state flows in shock tunnels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hannemann, K. (Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Goettingen (Germany)); Jacobs, P.A. (Queensland Univ., Brisbane (Australia). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering); Thomas, A.; McIntyre, T.J. (Queensland Univ., Brisbane, QLD. (Australia). Dept. of Physics)

1999-01-01

Due to the difficulty of measuring all necessary flow quantities in the nozzle reservoir and the test section of high enthalpy shock tunnels, indirect computational methods are necessary to estimate the required flow parameters. In addition to steady state flow computations of the nozzle flow and the flow past wind tunnel models it is necessary to investigate the transient flow in the facility in order to achieve a better understanding of its performance. These transient effects include the nozzle starting flow, the interaction of the shock tube boundary layers and the reflected shock, thermal losses in the shock reflection region and the developing boundary layers in the expanding section of the nozzle. Additionally, the nonequilibrium chemical and thermal relaxation models which are used to compute high enthalpy flows have to be validated with appropriate experimental data. (orig.)

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-12-21

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

Neutron and thermo - hydraulic model of a reactivity transient in a nuclear power plant fuel element

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliva, Jose de Jesus Rivero

2012-01-01

A reactivity transient without reactor scram was modeled and calculated using analytical expressions for the space distributions of the temperature fields, combined with discrete numerical calculations for the time dependences of thermal power and temperatures. The transient analysis covered the time dependencies of reactivity, global thermal power, fuel heat flux and temperatures in fuel, cladding and cooling water. The model was implemented in Microsoft Office Excel, dividing the Excel file in several separated worksheets for input data, initial steady-state calculations, calculation of parameters non-depending on eigenvalues, eigenvalues determination, calculation of parameters depending on eigenvalues, transient calculation and graphical representation of intermediate and final results. The results show how the thermal power reaches a new equilibrium state due to the negative reactivity feedback derived from the fuel temperature increment. Nevertheless, the reactor mean power increases 40% during the first second and, in the hottest channel, the maximum fuel temperature goes to a significantly high value, slightly above 2100 deg C, after 8 seconds of transient. Consequently, the results confirm that certain degree of fuel damage could be expected in case of a reactor scram failure. Once the basic model has being established the scope of accidents for future analyses can be extended, modifying the nuclear power behavior (reactivity) during transient and the boundary conditions for coolant temperature. A more complex model is underway for an annular fuel element. (author)

Transient behaviour of deep underground salt caverns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karimi-Jafari, M.

2007-11-01

This work deals with the transient behaviour of deep underground salt caverns. It has been shown that a cavern is a complex system, in which there are mechanical, thermal, chemical and hydraulic evolutions. The importance of the transient evolutions, particularly the role of the 'reverse' creep in the interpretation of the tightness test in a salt cavern is revealed. Creep is characterized by a formulation of the behaviour law which presents the advantage, in a practical point of view, to only have a reduced number of parameters while accounting of the essential of what it is observed. The initiation of the rupture in the effective traction in a salt cavern rapidly pressurized is discussed. A model fitted to a very long term behaviour (after abandonment) is developed too. In this case too, a lot of phenomena, more or less coupled, occur, when the existing literature took only into account some phenomena. (O.M.)

Variation in skin biology to climate in Shanghai, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaoping; Gao, Yanrui; Zhang, Yiyi; Wang, Xuemin

2017-09-01

To explore the relationship between climate and skin condition, and to investigate the variation of skin biology to climatic change. In total, 2005 healthy Chinese volunteers living in Shanghai (aged 13-69 years) were recruited. Transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and SCH were tested on six sites (forehead, cheek, nasolabial, inner forearm, dorsal hand, and palm) by noninvasive devices between January 2005 and December 2012. The corresponding climate data were recorded by local Weather Bureau. TEWL was increased with atmospheric pressure and decreased with temperature, steam pressure, and relative humidity (p climate parameters together, we introduced these correlated factors into the multivariate linear regression model which demonstrated that temperature and steam pressure were main factors related to skin biological parameters. At different sites, the effect of climatic factors on skin biology was diverse. Skin biological parameters are associated with climatic factors. Different sites have different sensitivity to climate factors.

Validation of the probabilistic approach for the analysis of PWR transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amesz, J.; Francocci, G.F.; Clarotti, C.

1978-01-01

This paper reviews the pilot study at present being carried out on the validation of probabilistic methodology with real data coming from the operational records of the PWR power station at Obrigheim (KWO, Germany) operating since 1969. The aim of this analysis is to validate the a priori predictions of reactor transients performed by a probabilistic methodology, with the posteriori analysis of transients that actually occurred at a power station. Two levels of validation have been distinguished: (a) validation of the rate of occurrence of initiating events; (b) validation of the transient-parameter amplitude (i.e., overpressure) caused by the above mentioned initiating events. The paper describes the a priori calculations performed using a fault-tree analysis by means of a probabilistic code (SALP 3) and event-trees coupled with a PWR system deterministic computer code (LOOP 7). Finally the principle results of these analyses are presented and critically reviewed

Design Improvements on Graded Insulation of Power Transformers Using Transient Electric Field Analysis and Visualization Technique

OpenAIRE

Yamashita, Hideo; Nakamae, Eihachiro; Namera, Akihiro; Cingoski, Vlatko; Kitamura, Hideo

1998-01-01

This paper deals with design improvements on graded insulation of power transformers using transient electric field analysis and a visualization technique. The calculation method for transient electric field analysis inside a power transformer impressed with impulse voltage is presented: Initially, the concentrated electric network for the power transformer is concentrated by dividing transformer windings into several blocks and by computing the electric circuit parameters.

Climate and climate change sensitivity to model configuration in the Canadian RCM over North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Elia, Ramon [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada); Centre ESCER, Univ. du Quebec a Montreal (Canada); Cote, Helene [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada)

2010-06-15

Climate simulations performed with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been found to show sensitivity to parameter settings. The origin, consequences and interpretations of this sensitivity are varied, but it is generally accepted that sensitivity studies are very important for a better understanding and a more cautious manipulation of RCM results. In this work we present sensitivity experiments performed on the simulated climate produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). In addition to climate sensitivity to parameter variation, we analyse the impact of the sensitivity on the climate change signal simulated by the CRCM. These studies are performed on 30-year long simulated present and future seasonal climates, and we have analysed the effect of seven kinds of configuration modifications: CRCM initial conditions, lateral boundary condition (LBC), nesting update interval, driving Global Climate Model (GCM), driving GCM member, large-scale spectral nudging, CRCM version, and domain size. Results show that large changes in both the driving model and the CRCM physics seem to be the main sources of sensitivity for the simulated climate and the climate change. Their effects dominate those of configuration issues, such as the use or not of large-scale nudging, domain size, or LBC update interval. Results suggest that in most cases, differences between simulated climates for different CRCM configurations are not transferred to the estimated climate change signal: in general, these tend to cancel each other out. (orig.)

Design parameters of a non-air-conditioned cinema hall for thermal comfort under arid-zone climatic conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tiwari, G.N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Lugani, N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Singh, A.K. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies)

1993-01-01

In this communication, a design of a cinema hall suitable for climatic conditions in an arid zone has been presented. The various cooling techniques, namely evaporative cooling, wind tower, ventilation/infiltration and natural cooling, have been incorporated in the design to achieve thermal comfort during the period of operation. The design parameters have been optimized on the basis of numerical computations after establishing an energy balance for each component of a cinema hall. It is observed that cooling treatment, i.e., a wind tower with a cooling pool on the roof provides reasonable thermal comfort inside the enclosure. (orig.)

A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1988-07-01

We generalize the theory of Sun-Climate/weather links and climatic change developed earlier by the author. On the basis of this theory, we show mathematically that key climatic/weather parameters are continuously subjected to determinable amplitude modulations and other variations which may be useful in climatic prediction work. A number of new and known terrestrial oscillations in climate and atmospheric behaviour in general, including the known quasi-biennial oscillations and many others, are deduced from the theory and accounted for in terms of their causative physical processes. Finally we briefly discuss the possibility of applying the theory to the planets Mars and Venus as well as Saturn's largest satellite, Titan. (author). 30 refs, 1 fig

Characterization of transient discharges under atmospheric-pressure conditions applying nitrogen photoemission and current measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Sandra; Rajasekaran, Priyadarshini; Bibinov, Nikita; Awakowicz, Peter

2012-01-01

The plasma parameters such as electron distribution function and electron density of three atmospheric-pressure transient discharges namely filamentary and homogeneous dielectric barrier discharges in air, and the spark discharge of an argon plasma coagulation (APC) system are determined. A combination of numerical simulation as well as diagnostic methods including current measurement and optical emission spectroscopy (OES) based on nitrogen emissions is used. The applied methods supplement each other and resolve problems, which arise when these methods are used individually. Nitrogen is used as a sensor gas and is admixed in low amount to argon for characterizing the APC discharge. Both direct and stepwise electron-impact excitation of nitrogen emissions are included in the plasma-chemical model applied for characterization of these transient discharges using OES where ambiguity arises in the determination of plasma parameters under specific discharge conditions. It is shown that the measured current solves this problem by providing additional information useful for the determination of discharge-specific plasma parameters. (paper)

Transient analysis on the SMART-P anticipated transients without scram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, S. H.; Bae, K. H.; Kim, H. C.; Zee, S. Q.

2005-01-01

Anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) are anticipated operational occurrences accompanied by a failure of an automatic reactor trip when required. Although the occurrence probability of the ATWS events is considerably low, these events can result in unacceptable consequences, i.e. the pressurization of the reactor coolant system (RCS) up to an unacceptable range and a core-melting situation. Therefore, the regulatory body requests the installation of a protection system against the ATWS events. According to the request, a diverse protection system (DPS) is installed in the SMART-P (System-integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor-Pilot). This paper presents the results of the transient analysis performed to identify the performance of the SMART-P against the ATWS. In the analysis, the TASS/SMR (Transients And Setpoint Simulation/Small and Medium Reactor) code is applied to identify the thermal hydraulic response of the RCS during the transients

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996-Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermeul, Vince R; Cole, Charles R; Bergeron, Marcel P; Thorne, Paul D; Wurstner, Signe K

2001-01-01

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty

Analysis of steady state and transient two-phase flows in downwardly inclined lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford, T.J.

1983-01-01

A study of steady-state and transient two-phase flows in downwardly inclined lines is described. Steady-state flow patterns maps are presented using Freon-113 as the working fluid to provide new high density vapors. These flow maps with high density vapor serve to significantly extend the investigations of steady-state downward two-phase flow patterns. Physical models developed which successfully predicted the onset or location of various flow pattern transitions. A new simplified criterion that would be useful to designers and experimenters is offered for the onset of dispersed flow. A new empirical holdup correlation and a new bubble diameter/flow rate correlation are also proposed. Flow transients in vertical downward lines were studied to investigate the possible formation of intermediate or spurious flow patterns that would not be seen at steady-state conditions. Void fraction behavior during the transients was modeled by using the dynamic slip equation from the transient analysis code RETRAN. Physical models of interfacial area were developed and compared with models and data from literature. There was satisfactory agreement between the models of the present study and the literature models and data. The concentration parameter of the drift flux model was evaluated for vertical downward flow. These new values of the flow dependent parameter were different from those previously proposed in the literature for use in upward flows, and made the drift flux model suitable for use in upward or downward flow lines

RELAP5-3D code validation of RBMK-1500 reactor reactivity measurement transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaliatka, Algirdas; Bubelis, Evaldas; Uspuras, Eugenijus

2003-01-01

This paper deals with the modeling of transients taking place during the measurements of the void and fast power reactivity coefficients performed at Ignalina NPP. The simulation of these transients was performed using RELAP5-3D code model of RBMK-1500 reactor. At the Ignalina NPP void and fast power reactivity coefficients are measured on a regular basis and, based on the total reactor power, reactivity, control and protection system control rods positions and the main circulation circuit parameter changes during the experiments, the actual values of these reactivity coefficients are determined. Following the simulation of the two above mentioned transients with RELAP5-3D code, a conclusion was made that the obtained calculation results demonstrate reasonable agreement with Ignalina NPP measured data. Behaviors of the separate MCC thermal-hydraulic parameters as well as physical processes are predicted reasonably well to the real processes, occurring in the primary circuit of RBMK-1500 reactor. The calculated reactivity and the total reactor core power behavior in time are also in reasonable agreement with the measured plant data. Despite of the small differences, RELAP5-3D code predicts reactivity and the total reactor core power behavior during the transients in a reasonable manner. Reasonable agreement of the measured and the calculated total reactor power change in time demonstrates the correct modeling of the neutronic processes taking place in RBMK-1500 reactor core

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

Science.gov (United States)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

AIRS retrieved CO2 and its association with climatic parameters over India during 2004–2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, K. Ravi; Revadekar, J.V.; Tiwari, Yogesh K.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved mid-tropospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) have been used to study the variability and its association with the climatic parameters over India during 2004 to 2011. The study also aims in understanding transport of CO 2 from surface to mid-troposphere over India. The annual cycle of mid-tropospheric CO 2 shows gradual increase in concentration from January till the month of May at the rate ∼ 0.6 ppm/month. It decreases continuously in summer monsoon (JJAS) at the same rate during which strong westerlies persists over the region. A slight increase is seen during winter monsoon (DJF). Being a greenhouse gas, annual cycle of CO 2 show good resemblance with annual cycle of surface air temperature with correlation coefficient (CC) of + 0.8. Annual cycle of vertical velocity indicate inverse pattern compared to annual cycle of CO 2 . High values of mid-tropospheric CO 2 correspond to upward wind, while low values of mid-tropospheric CO 2 correspond to downward wind. In addition to vertical motion, zonal winds are also contributing towards the transport of CO 2 from surface to mid-troposphere. Vegetation as it absorbs CO 2 at surface level, show inverse annual cycle to that of annual cycle of CO 2 (CC-0.64). Seasonal variation of rainfall-CO 2 shows similarities with seasonal variation of NDVI-CO 2 . However, the use of long period data sets for CO 2 at the surface and at the mid-troposphere will be an advantage to confirm these results. - Highlights: • Association of AIRS CO 2 with climate parameters over India • CO 2 show positive correlation with surface temperature • Vertical/horizontal winds contribute towards CO 2 transport • Vegetation and monsoonal rainfall show inverse relationship with CO 2

Review of behavior of mixed-oxide fuel elements in extended overpower transient tests in EBR-II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsai, H.; Neimark, L.A.

1994-10-01

From a series of five tests conducted in EBR-II, a substantial data base has been established on the performance of mixed-oxide fuel elements in a liquid-metal-cooled reactor under slow-ramp transient overpower conditions. Each test contained 19 preirradiated fuel elements with varying design and prior operating histories. Elements with aggressive design features, such as high fuel smear density and/or thin cladding, were included to accentuate transient effects. The ramp rates were either 0.1 or 10% ΔP/P/s and the overpowers ranged between ∼60 and 100% of the elements' prior power ratings. Six elements breached during the tests, all with aggressive design parameters. The other elements, including all those with moderate design features for the reference or advanced long-life drivers for PNC's prototype fast reactor Monju, maintained their cladding integrity during the tests. Posttest examination results indicated that fuel/cladding mechanical interaction (FCMI) was the most significant mechanism causing the cladding strain and breach. In contrast, pressure loading from the fission gas in the element plenum was less important, even in high-burnup elements. During an overpower transient, FCMI arises from fuel/cladding differential thermal expansion, transient fuel swelling, and, significantly, the gas pressure in the sealed central cavity of elements with substantial centerline fuel melting. Fuel performance data from these tests, including cladding breaching margin and transient cladding strain, are correlatable with fuel-element design and operating parameters. These correlations are being incorporated into fuel-element behavior codes. At the two tested ramp rates, fuel element behavior appears to be insensitive to transient ramp rate and there appears to be no particular vulnerability to slow ramp transients as previously perceived

Improving the transient response of a bolt-clamped Langevin transducer using a parallel resistor.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kuo Tsi

2003-08-01

This paper suggests a parallel resistor to reduce DC time constant and DC response time of the transient response, induced immediately after an AC voltage connected to a bolt-clamped Langevin transducer (BLT) is switched off. An equivalent circuit is first expressed. Then, an open-circuit transient response at the terminals induced by initial states is derived and measured, and thus parameters for losses of the BLT device are estimated by DC and AC time constants of the transient response. Moreover, a driving and measuring system is designed to determine transient response and steady-state responses of the BLT device, and a parallel resistor is connected to the BLT device to reduce the DC time constant. Experimental results indicate that the DC time constant greatly exceeds the AC time constant without the parallel resistor, and greatly decreases from 42 to 1 ms by a 100-kOmega parallel resistor.

Wavelet Denoising of Radio Observations of Rotating Radio Transients (RRATs): Improved Timing Parameters for Eight RRATs

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, M.; Cui, B.-Y.; Schmid, N. A.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Cao, Z.-C.

2017-09-01

Rotating radio transients (RRATs) are sporadically emitting pulsars detectable only through searches for single pulses. While over 100 RRATs have been detected, only a small fraction (roughly 20%) have phase-connected timing solutions, which are critical for determining how they relate to other neutron star populations. Detecting more pulses in order to achieve solutions is key to understanding their physical nature. Astronomical signals collected by radio telescopes contain noise from many sources, making the detection of weak pulses difficult. Applying a denoising method to raw time series prior to performing a single-pulse search typically leads to a more accurate estimation of their times of arrival (TOAs). Taking into account some features of RRAT pulses and noise, we present a denoising method based on wavelet data analysis, an image-processing technique. Assuming that the spin period of an RRAT is known, we estimate the frequency spectrum components contributing to the composition of RRAT pulses. This allows us to suppress the noise, which contributes to other frequencies. We apply the wavelet denoising method including selective wavelet reconstruction and wavelet shrinkage to the de-dispersed time series of eight RRATs with existing timing solutions. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of most pulses are improved after wavelet denoising. Compared to the conventional approach, we measure 12%–69% more TOAs for the eight RRATs. The new timing solutions for the eight RRATs show 16%–90% smaller estimation error of most parameters. Thus, we conclude that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for denoising RRATs signal.

Wavelet Denoising of Radio Observations of Rotating Radio Transients (RRATs): Improved Timing Parameters for Eight RRATs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, M.; Schmid, N. A.; Cao, Z.-C. [Lane Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering West Virginia University Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Cui, B.-Y.; McLaughlin, M. A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy West Virginia University Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States)

2017-09-20

Rotating radio transients (RRATs) are sporadically emitting pulsars detectable only through searches for single pulses. While over 100 RRATs have been detected, only a small fraction (roughly 20%) have phase-connected timing solutions, which are critical for determining how they relate to other neutron star populations. Detecting more pulses in order to achieve solutions is key to understanding their physical nature. Astronomical signals collected by radio telescopes contain noise from many sources, making the detection of weak pulses difficult. Applying a denoising method to raw time series prior to performing a single-pulse search typically leads to a more accurate estimation of their times of arrival (TOAs). Taking into account some features of RRAT pulses and noise, we present a denoising method based on wavelet data analysis, an image-processing technique. Assuming that the spin period of an RRAT is known, we estimate the frequency spectrum components contributing to the composition of RRAT pulses. This allows us to suppress the noise, which contributes to other frequencies. We apply the wavelet denoising method including selective wavelet reconstruction and wavelet shrinkage to the de-dispersed time series of eight RRATs with existing timing solutions. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of most pulses are improved after wavelet denoising. Compared to the conventional approach, we measure 12%–69% more TOAs for the eight RRATs. The new timing solutions for the eight RRATs show 16%–90% smaller estimation error of most parameters. Thus, we conclude that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for denoising RRATs signal.

Transient flow combustion

Science.gov (United States)

Tacina, R. R.

1984-01-01

Non-steady combustion problems can result from engine sources such as accelerations, decelerations, nozzle adjustments, augmentor ignition, and air perturbations into and out of the compressor. Also non-steady combustion can be generated internally from combustion instability or self-induced oscillations. A premixed-prevaporized combustor would be particularly sensitive to flow transients because of its susceptability to flashback-autoignition and blowout. An experimental program, the Transient Flow Combustion Study is in progress to study the effects of air and fuel flow transients on a premixed-prevaporized combustor. Preliminary tests performed at an inlet air temperature of 600 K, a reference velocity of 30 m/s, and a pressure of 700 kPa. The airflow was reduced to 1/3 of its original value in a 40 ms ramp before flashback occurred. Ramping the airflow up has shown that blowout is more sensitive than flashback to flow transients. Blowout occurred with a 25 percent increase in airflow (at a constant fuel-air ratio) in a 20 ms ramp. Combustion resonance was found at some conditions and may be important in determining the effects of flow transients.

Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

2009-01-01

This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

Transient disturbance growth in flows over convex surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Karp, Michael; Hack, M. J. Philipp

2017-11-01

Flows over curved surfaces occur in a wide range of applications including airfoils, compressor and turbine vanes as well as aerial, naval and ground vehicles. In most of these applications the surface has convex curvature, while concave surfaces are less common. Since monotonic boundary-layer flows over convex surfaces are exponentially stable, they have received considerably less attention than flows over concave walls which are destabilized by centrifugal forces. Non-modal mechanisms may nonetheless enable significant disturbance growth which can make the flow susceptible to secondary instabilities. A parametric investigation of the transient growth and secondary instability of flows over convex surfaces is performed. The specific conditions yielding the maximal transient growth and strongest instability are identified. The effect of wall-normal and spanwise inflection points on the instability process is discussed. Finally, the role and significance of additional parameters, such as the geometry and pressure gradient, is analyzed.

Collaborative Project: Building improved optimized parameter estimation algorithms to improve methane and nitrogen fluxes in a climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahowald, Natalie [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

2016-11-29

Soils in natural and managed ecosystems and wetlands are well known sources of methane, nitrous oxides, and reactive nitrogen gases, but the magnitudes of gas flux to the atmosphere are still poorly constrained. Thus, the reasons for the large increases in atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide since the preindustrial time period are not well understood. The low atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide, despite being more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide, complicate empirical studies to provide explanations. In addition to climate concerns, the emissions of reactive nitrogen gases from soils are important to the changing nitrogen balance in the earth system, subject to human management, and may change substantially in the future. Thus improved modeling of the emission fluxes of these species from the land surface is important. Currently, there are emission modules for methane and some nitrogen species in the Community Earth System Model’s Community Land Model (CLM-ME/N); however, there are large uncertainties and problems in the simulations, resulting in coarse estimates. In this proposal, we seek to improve these emission modules by combining state-of-the-art process modules for emissions, available data, and new optimization methods. In earth science problems, we often have substantial data and knowledge of processes in disparate systems, and thus we need to combine data and a general process level understanding into a model for projections of future climate that are as accurate as possible. The best methodologies for optimization of parameters in earth system models are still being developed. In this proposal we will develop and apply surrogate algorithms that a) were especially developed for computationally expensive simulations like CLM-ME/N models; b) were (in the earlier surrogate optimization Stochastic RBF) demonstrated to perform very well on computationally expensive complex partial differential equations in

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Analytical model for transient fluid mixing in upper outlet plenum of an LMFBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, J.W.; Agrawal, A.K.

1976-01-01

A two-zone mixing model based on the lumped-parameter approach was developed for the analysis of transient thermal response in the outlet plenum of an LMFBR. The maximum penetration of core flow is used as the criterion for dividing the sodium region into two mixing zones. The model considers the transient sodium temperature affected by the thermal expansion of sodium, heat transfer with cover gas, heat capacity of different sections of metal and the addition of by-pass flow into the plenum. The results of numerical calculations indicate that effects of flow stratification, chimney height, metal heat capacity and by-pass flow are important for transient sodium temperature calculation. Thermal expansion of sodium and heat transfer with the cover gas do not play any significant role on sodium temperature

A discussion on assessing climate-related hazards and uncertainties considering scenarios of climate-change: Examples and applications to some African areas

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Marzocchi, Warner; Uhinga, Guido

2013-04-01

Extreme meteorological phenomena such as heavy precipitation, extreme temperature, or strong winds, may have considerable impacts on the economy, infrastructure, health, as well as may represent a non-negligible threat for human life. A changing climate may lead to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of weather and climate extremes, and can result in unprecedented extreme events. Climatological parameters, that are reference variables for the assessment of climate-related hazards, can be generally obtained from data catalogues; nevertheless, it is often the case that the time window of the observations, if available at all, is too short for a correct analysis of the most extreme and less frequent events. For this reason there is a growing interest on the use of 'synthetic' data derived from climatological models which in addition, allow the possibility to perform climate projections considering different plausible emission/concentration scenarios in the modelling. Within this context, the scenario-based climate projections can be useful to assess possible temporal variations on climatological parameters (and hence in climate-related hazards) under climate change conditions. Here we discuss the characterization of some climate-related hazards based on the analysis of climatological parameters, debating relevant issues in the use of both observed and synthetic data, the consideration of climate-change scenarios, and the quantification and communication of uncertainties. In particular, to account for possible non-stationary conditions in the analysis of extremes under climate-change conditions, we have adopted a practical covariate approach recently used in different hydrological and meteorological applications, and used a Bayesian framework for the parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation.

Economic impacts of climate change in the U.S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neumann, J.

1997-01-01

Results of a long-term research project funded by EPRI to study the economic impacts of climate change in the U.S. were described. In 1992, Industrial Economics Inc., began an assessment of the impact of climate change in key natural resource sectors. A wide range of uniform climate scenarios were used to assess sensitivity across different temperature and precipitation gradients. Estimates were developed for the 2060 economy, using dynamic models to understand what was happening along the transient. It was projected that the greatest impact of climate change would be on the agricultural sector because of projected gains in productivity, mainly due to increased precipitation. Similar scenarios were developed for the economic impact of climate change on timber and coastal structures, including the loss of value of coastal property. Key limitations of the study, and future directions in research (e.g. extending the study to health and non-market impacts, including other developed and developing countries) were also outlined

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters, such as precipitation, temperature Oscillations (ENSO) and other climate patterns such as the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, and

Climatic controls on diffuse groundwater recharge across Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. V. Barron

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Reviews of field studies of groundwater recharge have attempted to investigate how climate characteristics control recharge, but due to a lack of data have not been able to draw any strong conclusions beyond that rainfall is the major determinant. This study has used numerical modelling for a range of Köppen-Geiger climate types (tropical, arid and temperate to investigate the effect of climate variables on recharge for different soil and vegetation types. For the majority of climate types, the correlation between the modelled recharge and total annual rainfall is weaker than the correlation between recharge and the annual rainfall parameters reflecting rainfall intensity. Under similar soil and vegetation conditions for the same annual rainfall, annual recharge in regions with winter-dominated rainfall is greater than in regions with summer-dominated rainfall. The importance of climate parameters other than rainfall in recharge estimation is highest in the tropical climate type. Mean annual values of solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit show a greater importance in recharge estimation than mean annual values of the daily mean temperature. Climate parameters have the lowest relative importance in recharge estimation in the arid climate type (with cold winters and the temperate climate type. For 75% of all soil, vegetation and climate types investigated, recharge elasticity varies between 2 and 4 indicating a 20% to 40% change in recharge for a 10% change in annual rainfall. Understanding how climate controls recharge under the observed historical climate allows more informed choices of analogue sites if they are to be used for climate change impact assessments.

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2014-03-01

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

Transient immune impairment after a simulated long-haul flight.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Mustafa, Fatima B; Peng, Chung Mien; Earnest, Arul; Koh, David; Lin, Gen; Hossain, Iqbal; MacAry, Paul A

2012-04-01

Almost 2 billion people travel aboard commercial airlines every year, with about 20% developing symptoms of the common cold within 1 wk after air travel. We hypothesize that hypobaric hypoxic conditions associated with air travel may contribute to immune impairment. We studied the effects of hypobaric hypoxic conditions during a simulated flight at 8000 ft (2438 m) cruising altitude on immune and stress markers in 52 healthy volunteers (mean age 31) before and on days 1, 4, and 7 after the flight. We did a cohort study using a generalized estimating equation to examine the differences in the repeated measures. Our findings show that the hypobaric hypoxic conditions of a 10-h overnight simulation flight are not associated with severe immune impairment or abnormal IgA or cortisol levels, but with transient impairment in some parameters: we observed a transient decrease in lymphocyte proliferative responses combined with an upregulation in CD69 and CD14 cells and a decrease in HLA-DR in the immediate days following the simulated flight that normalized by day 7 in most instances. These transient immune changes may contribute to an increased susceptibility to respiratory infections commonly seen after long-haul flights.

Data Analysis of Transient Energy Releases in the LHC Superconducting Dipole Magnets

CERN Document Server

Calvi, M; Bottura, L; Di Castro, M; Masi, A; Siemko, A

2007-01-01

Premature training quenches are caused by transient energy released within the LHC dipole magnet coils while it is energized. Voltage signals recorded across the magnet coils and on the so-called quench antenna carry information about these disturbances. The transitory events correlated to transient energy released are extracted making use of continuous wavelet transform. Several analyses are performed to understand their relevance to the so called training phenomenon. The statistical distribution of the signals amplitude, the number of events occurring at a given current level, the average frequency content of the events are the main parameters on which the analysis have been focalized. Comparisons among different regions of the magnet, among different quenches in the same magnet and among magnets made by different builders are reported. Conclusions about the efficiency of the raw data treatment and the relevance of the parameters developed with respect to the magnet global behavior are finally given.

Climate variability and change

CERN Document Server

Grassl, H

1998-01-01

Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

Application of transient burning rate model of solid propellant in electrothermal-chemical launch simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-jie Ni

2016-04-01

Full Text Available A 30 mm electrothermal-chemical (ETC gun experimental system is employed to research the burning rate characteristics of 4/7 high-nitrogen solid propellant. Enhanced gas generation rates (EGGR of propellants during and after electrical discharges are verified in the experiments. A modified 0D internal ballistic model is established to simulate the ETC launch. According to the measured pressure and electrical parameters, a transient burning rate law including the influence of EGGR coefficient by electric power and pressure gradient (dp/dt is added into the model. The EGGR coefficient of 4/7 high-nitrogen solid propellant is equal to 0.005 MW−1. Both simulated breech pressure and projectile muzzle velocity accord with the experimental results well. Compared with Woodley's modified burning rate law, the breech pressure curves acquired by the transient burning rate law are more consistent with test results. Based on the parameters calculated in the model, the relationship among propellant burning rate, pressure gradient (dp/dt and electric power is analyzed. Depending on the transient burning rate law and experimental data, the burning of solid propellant under the condition of plasma is described more accurately.

The effects of air stoichiometry and air excess ratio on the transient response of a PEMFC under load change conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Bosung; Cha, Dowon; Kim, Yongchan

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Effects of controlling parameters on the transient response of a PEMFC are studied. • The transient response is measured by varying air stoichiometry and air excess ratio. • Voltage drop, undershoot, and voltage fluctuation are analyzed under the load change. • Optimal air stoichiometry and air excess ratio are suggested for stable operation. - Abstract: The transient response of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is an important issue for transportation applications. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of operating and controlling parameters on the transient response of a PEMFC for achieving more stable cell performance under load change conditions. The transient response of a PEMFC was measured and analyzed by varying air stoichiometry, air humidity, and air excess ratio (AER). The optimal air stoichiometry and AER were determined to minimize the voltage drop, undershoot, and voltage fluctuation under the load change, while maintaining high cell performance. Based on the present data, the optimal air stoichiometry was determined to be between 2.0 and 2.5, and the optimal AER was suggested to be between 1.65 and 2.0

Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

Science.gov (United States)

Tokmakian, R. T.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

OpenAIRE

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate chang...

EP1000 anticipated transient without scram analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saiu, G.; Frogheri, M.; Schulz, T.L.

2001-01-01

The present paper summarizes the main results of the Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) analysis activity, performed for the European Passive Plant Program (EPP). The behavior of the EP1000 plant following an ATWS has been analyzed by means of the RELAP5/Mod3.2 code. An ATWS is defined as an Anticipated Transient accompanied by a common mode failure in the reactor protection system, such that the control rods do not scram as required to mitigate the consequences of the transient. According to the experience gained in PWR design, the limiting ATWS events, in a PWR, have been found to be the heatup transients caused by a reduction of heat removal capability by the secondary side of the plant. For this reason, the Loss of Normal Feedwater initiating event, to which the failure of the reactor scram is associated, has been analyzed. The purpose of the study is to verify the performance requirements set for the core feedback characteristics (that is to evaluate the effect of the low boron core neutron kinetic parameters), the overpressure protection system, and boration systems to cope with the EUR Acceptance Criteria for ATWS. Another purpose of this analysis was to support development of revised PSA success criteria that would reduce the contribution of ATWS to the large release frequency (LRF). The low boron core improved the basic EP1000 response to an ATWS event. In particular, the peak pressure was significantly lower than that which would result from a standard core configuration. The improved ATWS analysis results also permitted improved ATWS PSA success criteria. For example, the reduced peak pressure allows the use of other plant features to mitigate the event, including manual initiation of feed-bleed cooling in the event of PRHR HX failure. As a result, the core melt frequency and especially the LRF are significantly reduced. (author)

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

Science.gov (United States)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Transient waveform acquisition system for the ELMO Bumpy Torus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Young, K.G.; Burris, R.D.; Hillis, D.H.; Overbey, D.R.

1984-10-01

The transient waveform system described in this report is designed to acquire analog waveforms from the ELMO Bumpy Torus (EBT) diagnostic experiments. Pressure, density, synchrotron radiation, etc., are acquired and digitized with a Kinetic Systems TR812 transient recorder and associated modules located in a CAMAC crate. The system can simultaneously acquire, display, and transmit sets of data consisting of identification parameters and up to 1024 data points for 1 to 64 input signals (frequency range = 0.01 pulse/s to 100 kHz) of data every one or more minutes; thus, it can run continuously without operator intervention. The data are taken on a VAX 11/780 and transmitted to a data base on a DECSystem-10. To aid the programmer in making future modifications to the system, detailed documentation using the Yourdon structural methods has been given

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-26

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Phipps

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system.

A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution.

Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara.

To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the

Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

2017-08-01

Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

Simulated Switching Transients in the External Grid of Walney Offshore Wind Farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arana Aristi, Iván; Johnsen, D. T.; Soerensen, T.

2011-01-01

. These switching operations were simulated using the EMT software PSCAD/EMTDC A number of parameters were varied in order to determine the most critical transients. Based on the results, it was concluded that the worst line-to-line transient overvoltage occurred in the DC05 and EF06 turbines, when a 25km cable......This paper presents the results of several simulations to assess the highest possible line-to-line overvoltage at the terminals of wind turbine converters after the switching operation of a cable or capacitor bank in the external grid of Walney 1, one of two phases of Walney Offshore Wind Farm...

Transient thermal analysis of semiconductor diode lasers under pulsed operation

Science.gov (United States)

Veerabathran, G. K.; Sprengel, S.; Karl, S.; Andrejew, A.; Schmeiduch, H.; Amann, M.-C.

2017-02-01

Self-heating in semiconductor lasers is often assumed negligible during pulsed operation, provided the pulses are `short'. However, there is no consensus on the upper limit of pulse width for a given device to avoid-self heating. In this paper, we present an experimental and theoretical analysis of the effect of pulse width on laser characteristics. First, a measurement method is introduced to study thermal transients of edge-emitting lasers during pulsed operation. This method can also be applied to lasers that do not operate in continuous-wave mode. Secondly, an analytical thermal model is presented which is used to fit the experimental data to extract important parameters for thermal analysis. Although commercial numerical tools are available for such transient analyses, this model is more suitable for parameter extraction due to its analytical nature. Thirdly, to validate this approach, it was used to study a GaSb-based inter-band laser and an InP-based quantum cascade laser (QCL). The maximum pulse-width for less than 5% error in the measured threshold currents was determined to be 200 and 25 ns for the GaSb-based laser and QCL, respectively.

Bifurcation structures and transient chaos in a four-dimensional Chua model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoff, Anderson, E-mail: hoffande@gmail.com; Silva, Denilson T. da; Manchein, Cesar, E-mail: cesar.manchein@udesc.br; Albuquerque, Holokx A., E-mail: holokx.albuquerque@udesc.br

2014-01-10

A four-dimensional four-parameter Chua model with cubic nonlinearity is studied applying numerical continuation and numerical solutions methods. Regarding numerical solution methods, its dynamics is characterized on Lyapunov and isoperiodic diagrams and regarding numerical continuation method, the bifurcation curves are obtained. Combining both methods the bifurcation structures of the model were obtained with the possibility to describe the shrimp-shaped domains and their endoskeletons. We study the effect of a parameter that controls the dimension of the system leading the model to present transient chaos with its corresponding basin of attraction being riddled.

Constraining the CMB optical depth through the dispersion measure of cosmological radio transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fialkov, A.; Loeb, A.

2016-01-01

The dispersion measure of extragalactic radio transients can be used to measure the column density of free electrons in the intergalactic medium. The same electrons also scatter the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons, affecting precision measurements of cosmological parameters. We explore the connection between the dispersion measure of radio transients existing during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and the total optical depth for the CMB showing that the existence of such transients would provide a new sensitive probe of the CMB optical depth. As an example, we consider the population of FRBs. Assuming they exist during the EoR, we show that: (i) such sources can probe the reionization history by measuring the optical depth to sub-percent accuracy, and (ii) they can be detected with high significance by an instrument such as the Square Kilometer Array.

Constraining the CMB optical depth through the dispersion measure of cosmological radio transients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fialkov, A.; Loeb, A., E-mail: anastasia.fialkov@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: aloeb@cfa.harvard.edu [Institute for Teory and Computation, Harvard University, 60 Garden Street, MS-51, Cambridge, MA, 02138 (United States)

2016-05-01

The dispersion measure of extragalactic radio transients can be used to measure the column density of free electrons in the intergalactic medium. The same electrons also scatter the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons, affecting precision measurements of cosmological parameters. We explore the connection between the dispersion measure of radio transients existing during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and the total optical depth for the CMB showing that the existence of such transients would provide a new sensitive probe of the CMB optical depth. As an example, we consider the population of FRBs. Assuming they exist during the EoR, we show that: (i) such sources can probe the reionization history by measuring the optical depth to sub-percent accuracy, and (ii) they can be detected with high significance by an instrument such as the Square Kilometer Array.

Transients: The regulator's view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheron, B.W.; Speis, T.P.

1984-01-01

This chapter attempts to clarify the basis for the regulator's concerns for transient events. Transients are defined as both anticipated operational occurrences and postulated accidents. Recent operational experience, supplemented by improved probabilistic risk analysis methods, has demonstrated that non-LOCA transient events can be significant contributors to overall risk. Topics considered include lessons learned from events and issues, the regulations governing plant transients, multiple failures, different failure frequencies, operator errors, and public pressure. It is concluded that the formation of Owners Groups and Regulatory Response Groups within the owners groups are positive signs of the industry's concern for safety and responsible dealing with the issues affecting both the US NRC and the industry

Foraging behavior, environmental parameters and nests development of Melipona colimana Ayala (Hymenoptera: Meliponini) in temperate climate of Jalisco, México.

Science.gov (United States)

Macías-Macías, J O; Tapia-Gonzalez, J M; Contreras-Escareño, F

2017-01-01

Melipona colimana Ayala is an endemic species inhabiting temperate forests of pine and oak of south of Jalisco in Mexico. During a year, it was recorded every 15 days foraging activity, environmental parameters and the development of colonies of M. colimana in its wild habitat. For five minutes every hour from 7:00 to 21:00, the bees that entered and left the hive and bringing pollen and resin were registered. Every hour the relative humidity, temperature, wind speed and light intensity was recorded and related to foraging activity. Additionally, the weight of the colonies recently transferred to wooden boxes, the number of brood combs, honey pots and pollen were registered. The time of beginning and ending of the foraging activity differs from the reports of stingless bees of tropical weather and the same happens with the pollen collection. The environmental parameters that affect other tropical stingless bees in the foraging activity also affect M. colimana in temperate climate. It was determined that the major activity season and the presence of more pollen pots in the colony is from November through February, for what it could be the best time of the year for the division and obtainance of new colonies, while the critical period of minor activity and pollen flow was during rainy season. These data may be useful for the future sustainable use of this species in temperate climate.

Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

Lumped-parameter fuel rod model for rapid thermal transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perkins, K.R.; Ramshaw, J.D.

1975-07-01

The thermal behavior of fuel rods during simulated accident conditions is extremely sensitive to the heat transfer coefficient which is, in turn, very sensitive to the cladding surface temperature and the fluid conditions. The development of a semianalytical, lumped-parameter fuel rod model which is intended to provide accurate calculations, in a minimum amount of computer time, of the thermal response of fuel rods during a simulated loss-of-coolant accident is described. The results show good agreement with calculations from a comprehensive fuel-rod code (FRAP-T) currently in use at Aerojet Nuclear Company

Wayside Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on a Data-Driven Doppler Effect Eliminator and Transient Model Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang; Shen, Changqing; He, Qingbo; Zhang, Ao; Liu, Yongbin; Kong, Fanrang

2014-01-01

A fault diagnosis strategy based on the wayside acoustic monitoring technique is investigated for locomotive bearing fault diagnosis. Inspired by the transient modeling analysis method based on correlation filtering analysis, a so-called Parametric-Mother-Doppler-Wavelet (PMDW) is constructed with six parameters, including a center characteristic frequency and five kinematic model parameters. A Doppler effect eliminator containing a PMDW generator, a correlation filtering analysis module, and a signal resampler is invented to eliminate the Doppler effect embedded in the acoustic signal of the recorded bearing. Through the Doppler effect eliminator, the five kinematic model parameters can be identified based on the signal itself. Then, the signal resampler is applied to eliminate the Doppler effect using the identified parameters. With the ability to detect early bearing faults, the transient model analysis method is employed to detect localized bearing faults after the embedded Doppler effect is eliminated. The effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis strategy is verified via simulation studies and applications to diagnose locomotive roller bearing defects. PMID:24803197

Transient heat transfer into superfluid helium under confined conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filippov, Yu.P.; Miklyaev, V.M.; Sergeev, I.A.

1988-01-01

Transient thermal processes at solid-HeII interface at input of step pulse of heat load was investigated. Particular attention is given to the study of influence of geometry of experimental specimen upon the heat transfer dynamics. Abrupt breakdown of highly efficient transfer modes caused by the developmet of superfluid turbulence under confined condition is revealed, and accompanying temperature shift is registered. Some characteristic parameters are selected, their dependence on experimental conditions is established

Precipitation, groundwater and surface waters. Control of climate parameters on their isotopic composition and their utilization as palaeoclimatological tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gat, J.R.

1983-01-01

The isotopic composition of precipitation is correlated with climatic parameters such as mean temperature and humidity both in the source areas of the atmospheric moisture and along the storm trajectories. However, additional meteorological variables such as seasonal distributions of rainfall, convection patterns in the cloud and intensity, duration and intermittency of rain influence the isotopic composition. It is shown in this context that the isotopic composition of Negev and Sinai palaeowaters is consistent with the notion of summer rains in this area arising from Atlantic-based storm centres. (author)

Study of a spur gear dynamic behavior in transient regime

Science.gov (United States)

Khabou, M. T.; Bouchaala, N.; Chaari, F.; Fakhfakh, T.; Haddar, M.

2011-11-01

In this paper the dynamic behavior of a single stage spur gear reducer in transient regime is studied. Dynamic response of the single stage spur gear reducer is investigated at different rotating velocities. First, gear excitation is induced by the motor torque and load variation in addition to the fluctuation of meshing stiffness due to the variation of input rotational speed. Then, the dynamic response is computed using the Newmark method. After that, a parameter study is made on spur gear powered in the first place by an electric motor and in the second place by four strokes four cylinders diesel engine. Dynamic responses come to confirm a significant influence of the transient regime on the dynamic behavior of a gear set, particularly in the case of engine acyclism condition.

TRACE/PARCS modelling of rips trip transients for Lungmen ABWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, C. Y. [Inst. of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing-Hua Univ., No.101, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Lin, H. T.; Wang, J. R. [Inst. of Nuclear Energy Research, No. 1000, Wenhua Rd., Longtan Township, Taoyuan County 32546, Taiwan (China); Shih, C. [Inst. of Nuclear Engineering and Science, Dept. of Engineering and System Science, National Tsing-Hua Univ., No.101, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China)

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study are to examine the performances of the steady-state results calculated by the Lungmen TRACE/PARCS model compared to SIMULATE-3 code, as well as to use the analytical results of the final safety analysis report (FSAR) to benchmark the Lungmen TRACE/PARCS model. In this study, three power generation methods in TRACE were utilized to analyze the three reactor internal pumps (RIPs) trip transient for the purpose of validating the TRACE/PARCS model. In general, the comparisons show that the transient responses of key system parameters agree well with the FSAR results, including core power, core inlet flow, reactivity, etc. Further studies will be performed in the future using Lungmen TRACE/PARCS model. After the commercial operation of Lungmen nuclear power plant, TRACE/PARCS model will be verified. (authors)

Measuring transient chaos in nonlinear one- and two-dimensional maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buszko, Katarzyna; Stefanski, Krzysztof

2006-01-01

In this paper, we present results of numerical experiments on chaotic transients in families of the logistic and Henon maps. The duration of chaotic transients (the rambling time) for logistic maps estimated according to a rigorous criterion shows monotonic regularities with respect to both the period and the number of periodic window in a series of a given period. Due to inapplicability of this criterion to multidimensional maps, a more universal, though approximate, criterion is systematically studied on the family of logistic maps to optimize a choice of the free parameter value. The same approximate criterion is used to estimate rambling time for a number of periodic windows for the family of Henon maps. The dependence of the rambling time on the width of periodic windows is tested

Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, O. B.; Christensen, J. H.

2004-01-01

Heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes with subsequent surface runoff can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of such events could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Impacts of climate...... warming on severe precipitation events in Europe on a diurnal time scale were investigated with a high-resolution regional climate model for two of the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic, N., et al., 2000, IPCC special report...... models both originating from fully transient climate change simulations. Here, we show that although the summer time precipitation decreases over a substantial part of Europe in the scenarios analysed, an increase in the amount of precipitation exceeding the present-day 99th and in most cases even the 95...

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study contain projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change. Equilibrium and transient...

Computing transient exposure to indoor pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owczarski, P.C.; Parker, G.B.

1983-03-01

A computer code, CORRAL, is used to compute the transient levels of gases and respirable particulates in a residence. Predictions of time-varying exposure to radon (from the outside air, soil and well water) and respirable particulates (from outside air, wood stove operation and cigarette smoke) for a mother and child over 24 hours are made. Average 24-hour radon exposures are 13 times background (0.75 pCi/l) for the child and 4.5 times background for the mother. Average 24-hour respirable particulate exposures are 5.6 times background (100 μg/m 3 ) for the mother and 4.2 times background for the child. The controlling parameters examined are source location, flow rates between rooms, air infiltration rate and lifestyle. The first three are shown to influence the formation of local pockets of high concentration of radon and particulates, and the last parameter shows that lifestyle patterns ultimately govern individual exposure to these pockets of high concentrations. The code is useful for examination of mitigation measures to reduce exposure and examination of the effects that the controlling parameters have on exposure to indoor pollutants

Effect of Meteorological Parameters on Accident Rates in Petrochemical Industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mansouri, N.; Farsi, E.

2016-01-01

Background and Objective: In this research the effectiveness of weather and climate parameters in incidence of accidents in the petrochemical industry was studied and management strategies to prevent these events have been presented. Method: Two of the petrochemical companies, one of them in Assaluyeh (named Zagros, located in warm climates) and the other one in Tabriz (in cold climates) were selected for pilot study. The required data were collected by questionnaire, interview and walking through under study fields. The analyses of data have been done by Excel, SPSS software and Correlation statistical test. Findings: Climate parameters don’t have a directly impact on the petrochemical occupational accidents and there is no significant relationship between them. Discussion and Conclusion: The role of climatic parameters in the incidence of accidents in the petrochemical industry is indirect. In fact, the thermal stress in the first stage caused unsafe conditions and then unsafe behavior, and finally cause human error and occupational accidents. In this study, appropriate solutions for instance engineering or managerial measures are also suggested in order to prevent accidents and injuries.

Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Boulton, Chris A; Booth, Ben B B; Good, Peter

2017-12-01

The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change: A critical appraisal of simulations and observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlesinger, M.E.

1990-01-01

This book is the culmination of a Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations which was held at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, during 8--12 May 1989. The objectives of the Workshop were to: (1) present and evaluate the current status of climate model simulations of greenhouse-gas-induced changes of both the equilibrium and nonequilibrium (transient) climates; (2) present and assess the current status of the observations of global and regional climates from the beginning of the industrial revolution to the present, circa 1850 to 1989; (3) present reconstructions of climatic change during the last millennium to determine the ''natural variability'' of climate on the intra-century time scale; (4) critically evaluate whether or not the climate has changes from circa 1850 to 1989; and (5) compare the observations with the model simulations to ascertain whether a greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change has occurred and, if not, to estimate when in the future such a climatic change will likely become detectable against the background of the ''natural variability.''

The dynamics of sediment size and transient erosional signals in heterogeneous lithologies

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, N. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Crosby, B. T.; Wehrs, K.; Willenbring, J. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment supply and transport dynamics convey, transform, and destroy climatic and tectonic signals in channels and depositional landforms. The South Fork Eel River (SFER) in the northern California Coast Ranges, USA exhibits characteristics suggestive of transient landscape adjustment: strath terraces, knickpoints, and headwater terrain eroding more slowly than downstream areas. A tectonically-induced uplift wave is commonly invoked as the driver of transience in this region. The wave is attributed to the northward migration of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). Nested basin-mean erosion rates calculated from 10Be detrital quartz sand increase down the mainstem of the SFER, roughly coinciding with the direction of MTJ migration. This erosion trend is attributed to the proportion of adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions upstream of the locations where the nested 10Be samples were collected. Adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions are separated by a broad knickzone that contains 28% of relief along the mainstem. Knickzone propagation and considerable stream incision is suggested by projection of the upper SFER above the knickzone through the highest flight of strath terraces. Field observations and outcomes of numerical simulations using the Landlab modeling framework are incompatible with uplift modeled as a wave. Alternative uplift and variable sediment flux scenarios more reliably predict the pattern of terraces, knickpoints, and accelerated erosion. In the natural landscape, landforms and erosion rates follow the patterns expected for transient erosion along the mainstem, although a local base level lowering signal is not resolvable in many tributaries. Topographic relief, presence of knickpoints, and rock properties differ in the SFER tributaries. The tributaries draining mélange are over-steepened by boulders detached from hillslopes by earthflows. Here, we propose a framework in which rock properties and sediment size are a key control upon

Resonant and off-resonant transients in electromagnetically induced transparency: Turn-on and turn-off dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greentree, Andrew D.; Smith, T.B.; Echaniz, S.R. de; Durrant, A. V.; Marangos, J.P.; Segal, D.M.; Vaccaro, J.A.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a wide-ranging theoretical and experimental study of nonadiabatic transient phenomena in a Λ electromagnetically induced transparency system when a strong coupling field is rapidly switched on or off. The theoretical treatment uses a Laplace transform approach to solve the time-dependent density matrix equation. The experiments are carried out in a 87 Rb magneto-optical trap. The results show transient probe gain in parameter regions not previously studied, and provide insight into the transition dynamics between bare and dressed states

Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Prudhomme

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

Effects of transient soil waterlogging and its importance for rootstock selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Morales-Olmedo

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Under transient waterlogging, a number of transformations in the soil are generated associated with lack of aeration, seriously affecting the root system. Significant progress has been reported on understanding the effects of lack of oxygen on the metabolism of the roots, although few studies have examined changes in the soil. Diverging conclusions about the degree of tolerance exhibited by plants exclude the effects of hypoxia and anoxia on physical-chemical soil properties under plant experiments. This review examines the main changes occurring in soil and roots due to transient soil waterlogging conditions. Parameters such as antioxidant capacity, nutrient uptake dynamics and regeneration and distribution of the root system are relevant for selecting rootstocks tolerant to soil waterlogging.

The effect of sea-ice on the transient atmospheric eddies of the Southern Hemisphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menendez, C.G. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera/CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Serafini, V.; Le Treut, H. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique/CNRS, Universite P. et M. Curie, Tour 15-25, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

1999-09-01

Two 10 y simulations with a full seasonal cycle and 96 x 72 x 19 resolution were carried out with a version of the LMD GCM to diagnose the role of sea-ice on the extratropical climatology of the Southern Hemisphere. The control integration used the usual observed sea-ice distribution, while the anomaly simulation imposed a scenario in which all sea-ice was entirely replaced by open ocean. The simulated control climate was compared with available observational-based analyses. Relevant diagnostics of the time mean and indicators of the transient eddy activity have been evaluated for both integrations. The impact was shown throughout the troposphere and was larger and more organised in winter. We found reduced westerly flow and both falls and rises in sea level pressure in the region from which sea-ice was removed. The removal of ice in the Southern Ocean affects the baroclinic structure of the atmosphere. Changes in baroclinicity and eddy activity are consistent with changes in the mean climate. In general, the meridional wind variance, the poleward transient temperature flux and the eddy flux convergence of westerly momentum were weaker over the Southern Ocean. However, a strengthening of the variance downstream of the subtropical jet was found. The position of the main storm track tends to be slightly displaced equatorward in the anomaly case. (orig.) With 15 figs., 53 refs.

Searching for MHz Transients with the VLA Low-band Ionosphere and Transient Experiment (VLITE)

Science.gov (United States)

Polisensky, Emil; Peters, Wendy; Giacintucci, Simona; Clarke, Tracy; Kassim, Namir E.; hyman, Scott D.; van der Horst, Alexander; Linford, Justin; Waldron, Zach; Frail, Dale

2018-01-01

NRL and NRAO have expanded the low frequency capabilities of the VLA through the VLA Low-band Ionosphere and Transient Experiment (VLITE, http://vlite.nrao.edu/ ), effectively making the instrument two telescopes in one. VLITE is a commensal observing system that harvests data from the prime focus in parallel with normal Cassegrain focus observing on a subset of VLA antennas. VLITE provides over 6000 observing hours per year in a > 5 square degree field-of-view using 64 MHz bandwidth centered on 352 MHz. By operating in parallel, VLITE offers invaluable low frequency data to targeted observations of transient sources detected at higher frequencies. With arcsec resolution and mJy sensitivity, VLITE additionally offers great potential for blind searches of rarer radio-selected transients. We use catalog matching software on the imaging products from the daily astrophysics pipeline and the LOFAR Transients Pipeline (TraP) on repeated observations of the same fields to search for coherent and incoherent astronomical transients on timescales of a few seconds to years. We present the current status of the VLITE transient science program from its initial deployment on 10 antennas in November 2014 through its expansion to 16 antennas in the summer of 2017. Transient limits from VLITE’s first year of operation (Polisensky et al. 2016) are updated per the most recent analysis.

The carbon rent economics of climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalkuhl, Matthias; Brecha, Robert J.

2013-01-01

By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. We assess whether and how owners of oil, gas and coal can be compensated by a carbon permit grandfathering rule. One important finding is that reducing (cumulative) fossil resource use could actually increase scarcity rents and benefit fossil resource owners under a permit grandfathering rule. For our standard parameter setting overall scarcity rents under climate policy increase slightly. While low discount rates of resource owners imply higher rent losses due to climate policies, new developments of reserves or energy efficiency improvements could more than double scarcity rents under climate policy. Another important implication is that agents receiving the climate rent (regulating institutions or owners of grandfathered permits) could influence the climate target such that rents are maximized, rather than to limit global warming to a socially desirable level. For our basic parameter setting, rents would be maximized at approximately 650 GtC emissions (50% of business-as-usual emissions) implying a virtual certainty of exceeding a 2 °C target and a likelihood of 4 °C warming. - Highlights: • Fossil resource rents form a substantial share of the global GDP. • Fossil resource owners can benefit from climate policy. • Climate targets might be influenced by rent-maximizing aspects

Recurrent and Transient Spinal Pain Among Commercial Helicopter Pilots.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Knut; Baardsen, Roald; Dalen, Ingvild; Larsen, Jan Petter

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to provide information on the occurrence of spinal pain, i.e., low back and neck pain, among commercial helicopter pilots, along with possible associations between pain and anthropometric and demographic factors and flying exposure. Data were collected through a subjective and retrospective survey among all the 313 (294 men, 19 women) full-time pilots employed by two helicopter companies. A questionnaire was used to assess the extent of spinal complaints in a transient and recurrent pain pattern along with information on physical activities, occupational flying experience, and airframes. The survey had 207 responders (194 men, 13 women). The pilots had extensive flying experience. Spinal pain was reported by 67%. Flying-related transient pain was reported among 50%, whereas recurrent spinal pain, not necessarily associated with flying, was reported by 52%. Women experienced more pain, but sample size prevented further conclusions. Male pilots reporting any spinal pain flew significantly more hours last year (median 500 h, IQR 400-650) versus men with no pain (median 445 h, IQR 300-550). Male pilots with transient or recurrent spinal pain did not differ from nonaffected male colleagues in the measured parameters. Spinal pain is a frequent problem among male and female commercial helicopter pilots. For men, no significant associations were revealed for transient or recurrent spinal pain with age, flying experience in years, total hours, annual flying time, type of aircraft, or anthropometric factors except for any spinal pain related to hours flown in the last year.

Numerical analysis of transient pressure variation in the condenser of a nuclear power station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Xinjun; Zhou, Zijie; Song, Zhao [Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an (China); Lu, Qiankui; Li, Jiafu [Dong Fang Turbine Co., Ltd, Deyang (China)

2016-02-15

To research the characteristics of the transient variation of pressure in a nuclear power station condenser under accident condition, a mathematical model was established which simulated the cycling cooling water, heat transfer and pressure in the condenser. The calculation program of transient variation characteristics was established in Fortran language. The pump's parameter, cooling line's organization, check valve's feature and the parameter of siphonic water-collecting well are involved in the cooling water flow's mathematical model. The initial conditions of control volume are determined by the steady state of the condenser. The transient characteristics of a 1000 MW nuclear power station's condenser and cooling water system were examined. The results show that at the condition of plant-power suspension of pump, the cooling water flow rate decreases rapidly and refluxes, then fluctuates to 0. The variation of heat transfer coefficient in the condenser has three stages: at start it decreases sharply, then increases and decreases, and keeps constant in the end. Under three conditions (design, water and summer), the condenser pressure goes up in fluctuation. The time intervals between condenser's pressure signals under three conditions are about 26.4 s, which can fulfill the requirement for safe operation of nuclear power station.

Predicting dermal absorption of gas-phase chemicals: transient model development, evaluation, and application

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gong, M.; Zhang, Y.; Weschler, Charles J.

2014-01-01

A transient model is developed to predict dermal absorption of gas-phase chemicals via direct air-to-skin-to-blood transport under non-steady-state conditions. It differs from published models in that it considers convective mass-transfer resistance in the boundary layer of air adjacent to the skin....... Results calculated with this transient model are in good agreement with the limited experimental results that are available for comparison. The sensitivity of the modeled estimates to key parameters is examined. The model is then used to estimate air-to-skin-to-blood absorption of six phthalate esters...... and less absorbed into blood than would a steady-state model. In the 7-day scenario, results calculated by the transient and steady-state models converge over a time period that varies between 3 and 4days for all but the largest phthalate (DEHP). Dermal intake is comparable to or larger than inhalation...

Doppler ultrasonography combined with transient elastography improves the non-invasive assessment of fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Alempijevic, Tamara; Zec, Simon; Nikolic, Vladimir; Veljkovic, Aleksandar; Stojanovic, Zoran; Matovic, Vera; Milosavljevic, Tomica

2017-01-31

Accurate clinical assessment of liver fibrosis is essential and the aim of our study was to compare and combine hemodynamic Doppler ultrasonography, liver stiffness by transient elastography, and non-invasive serum biomarkers with the degree of fibrosis confirmed by liver biopsy, and thereby to determine the value of combining non-invasive method in the prediction significant liver fibrosis. We included 102 patients with chronic liver disease of various etiology. Each patient was evaluated using Doppler ultrasonography measurements of the velocity and flow pattern at portal trunk, hepatic and splenic artery, serum fibrosis biomarkers, and transient elastography. These parameters were then input into a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network with two hidden layers, and used to create models for predicting significant fibrosis. According to METAVIR score, clinically significant fibrosis (≥F2) was detected in 57.8% of patients. A model based only on Doppler parameters (hepatic artery diameter, hepatic artery systolic and diastolic velocity, splenic artery systolic velocity and splenic artery Resistance Index), predicted significant liver fibrosis with a sensitivity and specificity of75.0% and 60.0%. The addition of unrelated non-invasive tests improved the diagnostic accuracy of Doppler examination. The best model for prediction of significant fibrosis was obtained by combining Doppler parameters, non-invasive markers (APRI, ASPRI, and FIB-4) and transient elastography, with a sensitivity and specificity of 88.9% and 100%. Doppler parameters alone predict the presence of ≥F2 fibrosis with fair accuracy. Better prediction rates are achieved by combining Doppler variables with non-invasive markers and liver stiffness by transient elastography.

Soil-structure interaction for transient loads due to safety relief valve discharges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tseng, W.S.; Tsai, N.C.

1978-01-01

Dynamic responses of BWR Mark II containment structures subjected to axisymmetric transient pressure loadings due to simultaneous safety relief valve discharges were investigated using finite element analysis, including the soil-structure interaction effect. To properly consider the soil-structure interaction effect, a simplified lumped parameter foundation model and axisymmetric finite element foundation model with viscous boundary impedance are used. Analytical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the simplified foundation model and to exhibit the dynamic response behavior of the structure as the transient loading frequency and the foundation rigidity vary. The impact of the dynamic structural response due to this type of loading on the equipment design is also discussed. (Auth.)

RFI flagging implications for short-duration transients

Science.gov (United States)

Cendes, Y.; Prasad, P.; Rowlinson, A.; Wijers, R. A. M. J.; Swinbank, J. D.; Law, C. J.; van der Horst, A. J.; Carbone, D.; Broderick, J. W.; Staley, T. D.; Stewart, A. J.; Huizinga, F.; Molenaar, G.; Alexov, A.; Bell, M. E.; Coenen, T.; Corbel, S.; Eislöffel, J.; Fender, R.; Grießmeier, J.-M.; Jonker, P.; Kramer, M.; Kuniyoshi, M.; Pietka, M.; Stappers, B.; Wise, M.; Zarka, P.

2018-04-01

With their wide fields of view and often relatively long coverage of any position in the sky in imaging survey mode, modern radio telescopes provide a data stream that is naturally suited to searching for rare transients. However, Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) can show up in the data stream in similar ways to such transients, and thus the normal pre-treatment of filtering RFI (flagging) may also remove astrophysical transients from the data stream before imaging. In this paper we investigate how standard flagging affects the detectability of such transients by examining the case of transient detection in an observing mode used for Low Frequency Array (LOFAR; van Haarlem et al., 2013) surveys. We quantify the fluence range of transients that would be detected, and the reduction of their SNR due to partial flagging. We find that transients with a duration close to the integration sampling time, as well as bright transients with durations on the order of tens of seconds, are completely flagged. For longer transients on the order of several tens of seconds to minutes, the flagging effects are not as severe, although part of the signal is lost. For these transients, we present a modified flagging strategy which mitigates the effect of flagging on transient signals. We also present a script which uses the differences between the two strategies, and known differences between transient RFI and astrophysical transients, to notify the observer when a potential transient is in the data stream.

Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

2009-04-01

Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and

Development and calibration of instruments for measurements in transient two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banerjee, S.; Heidrick, T.R.

1981-01-01

For validation and development of theoretical models for transient two-phase flow, it is necessary to measure local and cross-sectionally averaged thermalhydraulic parameters. Of these parameters, void fraction and mass velocity are the most difficult to measure. In this paper, we present our recent work on various techniques for determining these quantities. The possibility of determining flow regime by using fast neutron transmission is discussed. The development of a miniaturized electrical resistivity probe for measuring local void fraction is described, together with calibrations obtained by integrating the void fraction profile and comparing the cross-sectionally averaged void fraction with direct measurements using two quick closing valves. Results on the calibration of combinations of full-flow turbine meters, Pitot tube rakes and gamma densitometers for measuring cross-sectionally averaged mass velocity in steady steam-water flow are presented. The results are interpreted with a simple model using single-phase calibration factors for the Pitot tube rakes and turbine meters. Calibration experiments were also done in transient steam-water flows and interpretation of the results with the steady state models is also discussed

Scaling of two-phase flow transients using reduced pressure system and simulant fluid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocamustafaogullari, G.; Ishii, M.

1987-01-01

Scaling criteria for a natural circulation loop under single-phase flow conditions are derived. Based on these criteria, practical applications for designing a scaled-down model are considered. Particular emphasis is placed on scaling a test model at reduced pressure levels compared to a prototype and on fluid-to-fluid scaling. The large number of similarty groups which are to be matched between modell and prototype makes the design of a scale model a challenging tasks. The present study demonstrates a new approach to this clasical problen using two-phase flow scaling parameters. It indicates that a real time scaling is not a practical solution and a scaled-down model should have an accelerated (shortened) time scale. An important result is the proposed new scaling methodology for simulating pressure transients. It is obtained by considerung the changes of the fluid property groups which appear within the two-phase similarity parameters and the single-phase to two-phase flow transition prameters. Sample calculations are performed for modeling two-phase flow transients of a high pressure water system by a low-pressure water system or a Freon system. It is shown that modeling is possible for both cases for simulation pressure transients. However, simulation of phase change transitions is not possible by a reduced pressure water system without distortion in either power or time. (orig.)

Climate Forcing Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of changes in solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and other properties thought to influence climate in the past. Parameter keywords...

URGAP: A gap conductance model for transient conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassmann, K.; Pazdera, F.

1983-01-01

A gap conductance model, URGAP, has been developed with contributions from solid, fluid and radiation heat transfer components. Model parameters are easily available, independent of different combinations of material surfaces. The model parameters were fitted to 388 data points under reactor conditions. For model verification, another 274 data points of steel-steel and aluminium-aluminium interfaces, respectively, were used. For minor surface roughnesses normally prevailing in reactor fuel elements the model asymptotically yields Ross' and Stoute's model for the open gap, which is thus confirmed. Materials data were carefully checked over a wide range of temperatures. Special attention was paid to the contact term for high temperatures. Thus, the model can be applied to transients. The URGAP model is being used successfully in several codes (e.g. URANUS, SSYST). (author)

LLL transient-electromagnetics-measurement facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deadrick, F.J.; Miller, E.K.; Hudson, H.G.

1975-01-01

The operation and hardware of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's transient-electromagnetics (EM)-measurement facility are described. The transient-EM range is useful for determining the time-domain transient responses of structures to incident EM pulses. To illustrate the accuracy and utility of the EM-measurement facility, actual experimental measurements are compared to numerically computed values

Sensitivity analysis of reactor safety parameters with automated adjoint function generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallfelz, J.M.; Horwedel, J.E.; Worley, B.A.

1992-01-01

A project at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) involves the development of simulation models for the transient analysis of the reactors in Switzerland (STARS). This project, funded in part by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate, also involves the calculation and evaluation of certain transients for Swiss light water reactors (LWRs). For best-estimate analyses, a key element in quantifying reactor safety margins is uncertainty evaluation to determine the uncertainty in calculated integral values (responses) caused by modeling, calculational methodology, and input data (parameters). The work reported in this paper is a joint PSI/Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) application to a core transient analysis code of an ORNL software system for automated sensitivity analysis. The Gradient-Enhanced Software System (GRESS) is a software package that can in principle enhance any code so that it can calculate the sensitivity (derivative) to input parameters of any integral value (response) calculated in the original code. The studies reported are the first application of the GRESS capability to core neutronics and safety codes

Optimization of High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis for Transient Climate Signals in Ice Cores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bigler, Matthias; Svensson, Anders; Kettner, Ernesto

2011-01-01

Over the past two decades, continuous flow analysis (CFA) systems have been refined and widely used to measure aerosol constituents in polar and alpine ice cores in very high-depth resolution. Here we present a newly designed system consisting of sodium, ammonium, dust particles, and electrolytic...... meltwater conductivity detection modules. The system is optimized for high- resolution determination of transient signals in thin layers of deep polar ice cores. Based on standard measurements and by comparing sections of early Holocene and glacial ice from Greenland, we find that the new system features...

Three-Dimensional Printed Poly(vinyl alcohol) Substrate with Controlled On-Demand Degradation for Transient Electronics.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Jinsu; Han, Jungmin; Choi, Bongsik; Lee, Yongwoo; Kim, Yeamin; Park, Jinhee; Lim, Meehyun; Kang, Min-Ho; Kim, Dae Hwan; Kim, Dong Myong; Kim, Sungho; Choi, Sung-Jin

2018-05-25

Electronics that degrade after stable operation for a desired operating time, called transient electronics, are of great interest in many fields, including biomedical implants, secure memory devices, and environmental sensors. Thus, the development of transient materials is critical for the advancement of transient electronics and their applications. However, previous reports have mostly relied on achieving transience in aqueous solutions, where the transience time is largely predetermined based on the materials initially selected at the beginning of the fabrication. Therefore, accurate control of the transience time is difficult, thereby limiting their application. In this work, we demonstrate transient electronics based on a water-soluble poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) substrate on which carbon nanotube (CNT)-based field-effect transistors were fabricated. We regulated the structural parameters of the PVA substrate using a three-dimensional (3D) printer to accurately control and program the transience time of the PVA substrate in water. The 3D printing technology can produce complex objects directly, thus enabling the efficient fabrication of a transient substrate with a prescribed and controlled transience time. In addition, the 3D printer was used to develop a facile method for the selective and partial destruction of electronics.

Transient coupled calculations of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor using the Transient Fission Matrix approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laureau, A., E-mail: laureau.axel@gmail.com; Heuer, D.; Merle-Lucotte, E.; Rubiolo, P.R.; Allibert, M.; Aufiero, M.

2017-05-15

Highlights: • Neutronic ‘Transient Fission Matrix’ approach coupled to the CFD OpenFOAM code. • Fission Matrix interpolation model for fast spectrum homogeneous reactors. • Application for coupled calculations of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor. • Load following, over-cooling and reactivity insertion transient studies. • Validation of the reactor intrinsic stability for normal and accidental transients. - Abstract: In this paper we present transient studies of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR). This generation IV reactor is characterized by a liquid fuel circulating in the core cavity, requiring specific simulation tools. An innovative neutronic approach called “Transient Fission Matrix” is used to perform spatial kinetic calculations with a reduced computational cost through a pre-calculation of the Monte Carlo spatial and temporal response of the system. Coupled to this neutronic approach, the Computational Fluid Dynamics code OpenFOAM is used to model the complex flow pattern in the core. An accurate interpolation model developed to take into account the thermal hydraulics feedback on the neutronics including reactivity and neutron flux variation is presented. Finally different transient studies of the reactor in normal and accidental operating conditions are detailed such as reactivity insertion and load following capacities. The results of these studies illustrate the excellent behavior of the MSFR during such transients.

Transient coupled calculations of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor using the Transient Fission Matrix approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laureau, A.; Heuer, D.; Merle-Lucotte, E.; Rubiolo, P.R.; Allibert, M.; Aufiero, M.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Neutronic ‘Transient Fission Matrix’ approach coupled to the CFD OpenFOAM code. • Fission Matrix interpolation model for fast spectrum homogeneous reactors. • Application for coupled calculations of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor. • Load following, over-cooling and reactivity insertion transient studies. • Validation of the reactor intrinsic stability for normal and accidental transients. - Abstract: In this paper we present transient studies of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR). This generation IV reactor is characterized by a liquid fuel circulating in the core cavity, requiring specific simulation tools. An innovative neutronic approach called “Transient Fission Matrix” is used to perform spatial kinetic calculations with a reduced computational cost through a pre-calculation of the Monte Carlo spatial and temporal response of the system. Coupled to this neutronic approach, the Computational Fluid Dynamics code OpenFOAM is used to model the complex flow pattern in the core. An accurate interpolation model developed to take into account the thermal hydraulics feedback on the neutronics including reactivity and neutron flux variation is presented. Finally different transient studies of the reactor in normal and accidental operating conditions are detailed such as reactivity insertion and load following capacities. The results of these studies illustrate the excellent behavior of the MSFR during such transients.

Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.

2004-01-01

The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

A global data set of land-surface parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.; Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.; Schulzweida, U.

1994-01-01

A global data set of land surface parameters is provided for the climate model ECHAM developed at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie in Hamburg. These parameters are: background (surface) albedo α, surface roughness length z 0y , leaf area index LAI, fractional vegetation cover or vegetation ratio c y , and forest ratio c F . The global set of surface parameters is constructed by allocating parameters to major exosystem complexes of Olson et al. (1983). The global distribution of ecosystem complexes is given at a resolution of 0.5 0 x 0.5 0 . The latter data are compatible with the vegetation types used in the BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992) which is a potential candidate of an interactive submodel within a comprehensive model of the climate system. (orig.)

Foraging behavior, environmental parameters and nests development of Melipona colimana Ayala (Hymenoptera: Meliponini in temperate climate of Jalisco, México

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. O. Macías-Macías

Full Text Available Abstract Melipona colimana Ayala is an endemic species inhabiting temperate forests of pine and oak of south of Jalisco in Mexico. During a year, it was recorded every 15 days foraging activity, environmental parameters and the development of colonies of M. colimana in its wild habitat. For five minutes every hour from 7:00 to 21:00, the bees that entered and left the hive and bringing pollen and resin were registered. Every hour the relative humidity, temperature, wind speed and light intensity was recorded and related to foraging activity. Additionally, the weight of the colonies recently transferred to wooden boxes, the number of brood combs, honey pots and pollen were registered. The time of beginning and ending of the foraging activity differs from the reports of stingless bees of tropical weather and the same happens with the pollen collection. The environmental parameters that affect other tropical stingless bees in the foraging activity also affect M. colimana in temperate climate. It was determined that the major activity season and the presence of more pollen pots in the colony is from November through February, for what it could be the best time of the year for the division and obtainance of new colonies, while the critical period of minor activity and pollen flow was during rainy season. These data may be useful for the future sustainable use of this species in temperate climate.

Nodalization effects on RELAP5 results related to MTR research reactor transient scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khedr Ahmed

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The present work deals with the anal y sis of RELAP5 results obtained from the evaluation study of the total loss of flow transient with the deficiency of the heat removal system in a research reactor using two different nodalizations. It focuses on the effect of nodalization on the thermal-hydraulic evaluation of the re search reactor. The analysis of RELAP5 results has shown that nodalization has a big effect on the predicted scenario of the postulated transient. There fore, great care should be taken during the nodalization of the reactor, especially when the avail able experimental or measured data are insufficient for making a complete qualification of the nodalization. Our analysis also shows that the research reactor pool simulation has a great effect on the evaluation of natural circulation flow and on other thermal-hydraulic parameters during the loss of flow transient. For example, the on set time of core boiling changes from less than 2000 s to 15000 s, starting from the beginning of the transient. This occurs if the pool is simulated by two vertical volumes in stead of one vertical volume.

Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Crabbe, M James C

2009-01-01

The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth

2013-08-02

Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.

MHD aspects of coronal transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anzer, U.

1979-10-01

If one defines coronal transients as events which occur in the solar corona on rapid time scales (< approx. several hours) then one would have to include a large variety of solar phenomena: flares, sprays, erupting prominences, X-ray transients, white light transients, etc. Here we shall focus our attention on the latter two phenomena. (orig.) 891 WL/orig. 892 RDG

A CALCULATION METHOD OF TRANSIENT MODES OF ELECTRIC SHIPS’ PROPELLING ELECTRIC PLANTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Yarovenko

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the work is to develop the method for calculating the transient modes of electric ships’ propelling electric plants during maneuver. This will allow us to evaluate and improve the maneuverability of vessels with electric motion. Methodology. The solution to the problems is proposed to be carried out on the basis of mathematical modeling of maneuvering modes. The duration of transient modes in an electric power plant at electric ships’ maneuvers is commensurable with the transient operation modes of the vessel itself. Therefore, the analysis of the electric power plants’ maneuvering modes should be made in unity with all the components of the ship’s propulsion complex. Results. A specified mathematical model of transient regimes of electric ship’s propulsion complex, including thermal motors, synchronous generators, electric power converters, propulsion motors, propellers, rudder, ship’s hull is developed. The model is universal. It covers the vast majority of modern and promising electric ships with a traditional type of propulsors. It allows calculating the current values of the basic mode indicators and assessing the quality indicators of maneuvering. The model is made in relative units. Dimensionless parameters of the complex are obtained. These parameters influence the main indicators of the quality of maneuvering. The adequacy of the suggested specified mathematical model and the developed computation method based on it were confirmed. To do this, the results of mathematical modeling for a real electric ship were compared with the data obtained in the course of field experiments conducted by other researchers. Originality. The mathematical description of a generator unit, as an integral part of an indivisible ship’s propulsion complex, makes it possible to calculate the dynamic operation modes of electric power sources during electric vessels’ maneuvering. There is an opportunity to design the electric ships�

Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

System for measuring of air concentration in air-steam mixture during the transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorbenko, Gennady A.; Gakal, Pavlo G.; Epifanov, Konstantin S.; Osokin, Gennady V.; Smirnov, Sergey V.

2006-01-01

Description of system for air concentration measuring in air-steam mixture during the transients is represented. Air concentration measuring is based on discrete sampling method. The measuring system consists of sampler, transport pipeline, distributor and six measuring vessels. From the sampler air-steam mixture comes to distributor through transport pipeline and fills consecutively the measuring vessels. The true air concentration in place of measurement was defined based on measured air concentration in samples taken from measuring vessels. For this purpose, the mathematical model of transients in measuring system was developed. Air concentration transient in air-steam mixture in place of measurement was described in mathematical model by air concentration time-dependent function. The function parameters were defined based on air concentration measured in samples taken from measuring vessels. Estimated error of air concentration identification was about 10%. Measuring system was used in experiments on EREC BKV-213 test facility intended for testing of VVER-440/V-213 reactor barbotage-vacuum system

Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases

Science.gov (United States)

Ramanathan, V.; Callis, L.; Cess, R.; Hansen, J.; Isaksen, I.

1987-01-01

The paper considers trace gas-climate effects including the greenhouse effect of polyatomic trace gases, the nature of the radiative-chemical interactions, and radiative-dynamical interactions in the stratosphere, and the role of these effects in governing stratospheric climate change. Special consideration is given to recent developments in the investigations of the role of oceans in governing the transient climate responses, and a time-dependent estimate of the potential trace gas warming from the preindustrial era to the early 21st century. The importance of interacting modeling and observational efforts is emphasized. One of the problems remaining on the observational front is the lack of certainty in current estimates of the rate of growth of CO, O3, and NOx; the primary challenge is the design of a strategy that will minimize the sampling errors.

Models for transient analyses in advanced test reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabrielli, Fabrizio

2011-01-01

Several strategies are developed worldwide to respond to the world's increasing demand for electricity. Modern nuclear facilities are under construction or in the planning phase. In parallel, advanced nuclear reactor concepts are being developed to achieve sustainability, minimize waste, and ensure uranium resources. To optimize the performance of components (fuels and structures) of these systems, significant efforts are under way to design new Material Test Reactors facilities in Europe which employ water as a coolant. Safety provisions and the analyses of severe accidents are key points in the determination of sound designs. In this frame, the SIMMER multiphysics code systems is a very attractive tool as it can simulate transients and phenomena within and beyond the design basis in a tightly coupled way. This thesis is primarily focused upon the extension of the SIMMER multigroup cross-sections processing scheme (based on the Bondarenko method) for a proper heterogeneity treatment in the analyses of water-cooled thermal neutron systems. Since the SIMMER code was originally developed for liquid metal-cooled fast reactors analyses, the effect of heterogeneity had been neglected. As a result, the application of the code to water-cooled systems leads to a significant overestimation of the reactivity feedbacks and in turn to non-conservative results. To treat the heterogeneity, the multigroup cross-sections should be computed by properly taking account of the resonance self-shielding effects and the fine intra-cell flux distribution in space group-wise. In this thesis, significant improvements of the SIMMER cross-section processing scheme are described. A new formulation of the background cross-section, based on the Bell and Wigner correlations, is introduced and pre-calculated reduction factors (Effective Mean Chord Lengths) are used to take proper account of the resonance self-shielding effects of non-fuel isotopes. Moreover, pre-calculated parameters are applied

Tamoxifen affects glucose and lipid metabolism parameters, causes browning of subcutaneous adipose tissue and transient body composition changes in C57BL/6NTac mice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesselbarth, Nico; Pettinelli, Chiara; Gericke, Martin; Berger, Claudia; Kunath, Anne; Stumvoll, Michael; Blüher, Matthias; Klöting, Nora

2015-01-01

Tamoxifen is a selective estrogen receptor (ER) modulator which is widely used to generate inducible conditional transgenic mouse models. Activation of ER signaling plays an important role in the regulation of adipose tissue (AT) metabolism. We therefore tested the hypothesis that tamoxifen administration causes changes in AT biology in vivo. 12 weeks old male C57BL/6NTac mice were treated with either tamoxifen (n = 18) or vehicle (n = 18) for 5 consecutive days. Tamoxifen treatment effects on body composition, energy homeostasis, parameters of AT biology, glucose and lipid metabolism were investigated up to an age of 18 weeks. We found that tamoxifen treatment causes: I) significantly increased HbA 1c , triglyceride and free fatty acid serum concentrations (p < 0.01), II) browning of subcutaneous AT and increased UCP-1 expression, III) increased AT proliferation marker Ki67 mRNA expression, IV) changes in adipocyte size distribution, and V) transient body composition changes. Tamoxifen may induce changes in body composition, whole body glucose and lipid metabolism and has significant effects on AT biology, which need to be considered when using Tamoxifen as a tool to induce conditional transgenic mouse models. Our data further suggest that tamoxifen-treated wildtype mice should be characterized in parallel to experimental transgenic models to control for tamoxifen administration effects. - Highlights: • Tamoxifen treatment causes significantly increased HbA 1c , triglyceride and free fatty acid serum concentrations. • Tamoxifen induces browning of subcutaneous AT and increased UCP-1 expression. • Tamoxifen changes adipocyte size distribution, and transient body composition

Transient receptor potential channel polymorphisms are associated with the somatosensory function in neuropathic pain patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Binder

Full Text Available Transient receptor potential channels are important mediators of thermal and mechanical stimuli and play an important role in neuropathic pain. The contribution of hereditary variants in the genes of transient receptor potential channels to neuropathic pain is unknown. We investigated the frequency of transient receptor potential ankyrin 1, transient receptor potential melastin 8 and transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 single nucleotide polymorphisms and their impact on somatosensory abnormalities in neuropathic pain patients. Within the German Research Network on Neuropathic Pain (Deutscher Forscbungsverbund Neuropathischer Schmerz 371 neuropathic pain patients were phenotypically characterized using standardized quantitative sensory testing. Pyrosequencing was employed to determine a total of eleven single nucleotide polymorphisms in transient receptor potential channel genes of the neuropathic pain patients and a cohort of 253 German healthy volunteers. Associations of quantitative sensory testing parameters and single nucleotide polymorphisms between and within groups and subgroups, based on sensory phenotypes, were analyzed. Single nucleotide polymorphisms frequencies did not differ between both the cohorts. However, in neuropathic pain patients transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 710G>A (rs920829, E179K was associated with the presence of paradoxical heat sensation (p = 0.03, and transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 1911A>G (rs8065080, I585V with cold hypoalgesia (p = 0.0035. Two main subgroups characterized by preserved (1 and impaired (2 sensory function were identified. In subgroup 1 transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 1911A>G led to significantly less heat hyperalgesia, pinprick hyperalgesia and mechanical hypaesthesia (p = 0.006, p = 0.005 and pG (rs222747, M315I to cold hypaesthesia (p = 0.002, but there was absence of associations in subgroup 2. In this study we found no evidence that genetic

Transient-Switch-Signal Suppressor

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.

1995-01-01

Circuit delays transmission of switch-opening or switch-closing signal until after preset suppression time. Used to prevent transmission of undesired momentary switch signal. Basic mode of operation simple. Beginning of switch signal initiates timing sequence. If switch signal persists after preset suppression time, circuit transmits switch signal to external circuitry. If switch signal no longer present after suppression time, switch signal deemed transient, and circuit does not pass signal on to external circuitry, as though no transient switch signal. Suppression time preset at value large enough to allow for damping of underlying pressure wave or other mechanical transient.

Summary of transient analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saha, P.

1984-01-01

This chapter reviews the papers on the pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR) transient analyses given at the American Nuclear Society Topical Meeting on Anticipated and Abnormal Plant Transients in Light Water Reactors. Most of the papers were based on the systems calculations performed using the TRAC-PWR, RELAP5 and RETRAN codes. The status of the nuclear industry in the code applications area is discussed. It is concluded that even though comprehensive computer codes are available for plant transient analysis, there is still a need to exercise engineering judgment, simpler tools and even hand calculations to supplement these codes

Exhaust gas recirculation – Zero dimensional modelling and characterization for transient diesel combustion control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asad, Usman; Tjong, Jimi; Zheng, Ming

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Zero-dimensional EGR model for transient diesel combustion control. • Detailed analysis of EGR effects on intake, cylinder charge and exhaust properties. • Intake oxygen validated as an operating condition-independent measure of EGR. • Quantified EGR effectiveness in terms of NOx emission reduction. • Twin lambda sensor technique for estimation of EGR/in-cylinder parameters. - Abstract: The application of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) during transient engine operation is a challenging task since small fluctuations in EGR may cause larger than acceptable spikes in NOx/soot emissions or deterioration in the combustion efficiency. Moreover, the intake charge dilution at any EGR ratio is a function of engine load and intake pressure, and typically changes during transient events. Therefore, the management of EGR during transient engine operation or advanced combustion cycles (that are inherently less stable) requires a fundamental understanding of the transient EGR behaviour and its impact on the intake charge development. In this work, a zero-dimensional EGR model is described to estimate the transient (cycle-by-cycle) progression of EGR and the time (engine cycles) required for its stabilization. The model response is tuned to a multi-cylinder engine by using an overall engine system time-constant and shown to effectively track the transient EGR changes. The impact of EGR on the actual air–fuel ratio of the cylinder charge is quantified by defining an in-cylinder excess-air ratio that accounts for the oxygen in the recycled exhaust gas. Furthermore, a twin lambda sensor (TLS) technique is implemented for tracking the intake dilution and in-cylinder excess-air ratio in real-time. The modelling and analysis results are validated against a wide range of engine operations, including transient and steady-state low temperature combustion tests

Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

2018-04-01

Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

Experience with transients in German NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindauer, E.

1984-01-01

This chapter examines reactor accidents in the Federal Republic of Germany based on the formal reporting system for licensee event reports (LERs) and a special investigation on all unplanned power variations in 3 PWRs. The significant transients experienced by BWR type reactors are analyzed. The main goal is to find weak points which caused the transient or influenced its course in an unfavorable way in order to improve the affected plant and others. The complete survey of all transients, with normally little or no safety relevance, allows statistical evaluations and the analysis of trends. It is concluded that significant transients were mainly experienced at older plants, whereas plants of an advanced design produced very few significant transients. The most frequent human errors which lead to transients are failure search in electronic systems and errors during design and commissioning

FOREWORD: International Conference on Planetary Boundary Layer and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Djolov, G.; Esau, I.

2010-05-01

structural uncertainties is hard to reduce and this could be one of the reasons determining slow progress in narrowing the climate model uncertainty range over the last 30 years (Knutti and Hagerl, Nature Geoscience, 2008). One of the most prominent structural uncertainties in the ongoing transient climate change is related to poor understanding and hence incorrect modelling of the turbulent physics and dynamics processes in the planetary boundary layer. Nevertheless, the climate models continue to rely on physically incorrect boundary layer parameterizations (Cuxart et al., BLM, 2006), whose erroneous dynamical response in the climate models may lead to significant abnormalities in simulated climate. At present, international efforts in theoretical understanding of the turbulent mixing have resulted in significant progress in turbulence simulation, measurements and parameterizations. However, this understanding has not yet found its way to the climate research community. Vice versa, climate research is not usually addressed by the boundary layer research community. The gap needs to be closed in order to crucially complete the scientific basis of climate change studies. The focus of the proposed forum could be formulated as follows: The planetary boundary layer determines several key parameters controlling the Earth's climate system but being a dynamic sub-system, just a layer of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere/ocean, it is also controlled by the climate system and its changes. Such a dynamic relationship causes a planetary boundary layer feedback (PBL-feedback) which could be defined as the response of the surface air temperature on changes in the vertical turbulent mixing. The forum participants have discussed both climatological and fluid dynamic aspects of this response, in order to quantify their role in the Earth's transient heat uptake and its representation in climate models. The choice of the forum location and dates are motivated by the role of tropical oceans

Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Soon

2000-05-01

Full Text Available We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot and solar UV (SUV. The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions

Nuclear power plant transients: where are we

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, D.

1984-05-01

This document is in part a postconference review and summary of the American Nuclear Society sponsored Anticipated and Abnormal Plant Transients in Light Water Reactors Conference held in Jackson, Wyoming, September 26-29, 1983, and in part a reflection upon the issues of plant transients and their impact on the viability of nuclear power. This document discusses state-of-the-art knowledge, deficiencies, and future directions in the plant transients area as seen through this conference. It describes briefly what was reported in this conference, emphasizes areas where it is felt there is confidence in the nuclear industry, and also discusses where the experts did not have a consensus. Areas covered in the document include major issues in operational transients, transient management, transient events experience base, the status of the analytical tools and their capabilities, probabilistic risk assessment applications in operational transients, and human factors impact on plant transients management

PWR systems transient analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, M.F.; Peeler, G.B.; Abramson, P.B.

1985-01-01

Analysis of transients in pressurized water reactor (PWR) systems involves the assessment of the response of the total plant, including primary and secondary coolant systems, steam piping and turbine (possibly including the complete feedwater train), and various control and safety systems. Transient analysis is performed as part of the plant safety analysis to insure the adequacy of the reactor design and operating procedures and to verify the applicable plant emergency guidelines. Event sequences which must be examined are developed by considering possible failures or maloperations of plant components. These vary in severity (and calculational difficulty) from a series of normal operational transients, such as minor load changes, reactor trips, valve and pump malfunctions, up to the double-ended guillotine rupture of a primary reactor coolant system pipe known as a Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident (LBLOCA). The focus of this paper is the analysis of all those transients and accidents except loss of coolant accidents

Transient osteoporosis of the hip

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McWalter, Patricia; Hassan Ahmed

2007-01-01

Transient osteoporosis of the hip is an uncommon cause of hip pain, mostly affecting healthy middle-aged men and also women in the third trimester of pregnancy. We present a case of transient osteoporosis of the hip in a 33-year-old non-pregnant female patient. This case highlights the importance of considering a diagnosis of transient osteoporosis of the hip in patients who present with hip pain. (author)

Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

Validation of coupled Relap5-3D code in the analysis of RBMK-1500 specific transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evaldas, Bubelis; Algirdas, Kaliatka; Eugenijus, Uspuras

2003-01-01

This paper deals with the modelling of RBMK-1500 specific transients taking place at Ignalina NPP. These transients include: measurements of void and fast power reactivity coefficients, change of graphite cooling conditions and reactor power reduction transients. The simulation of these transients was performed using RELAP5-3D code model of RBMK-1500 reactor. At the Ignalina NPP void and fast power reactivity coefficients are measured on a regular basis and, based on the total reactor power, reactivity, control and protection system control rods positions and the main circulation circuit parameter changes during the experiments, the actual values of these reactivity coefficients are determined. Graphite temperature reactivity coefficient at the plant is determined by changing graphite cooling conditions in the reactor cavity. This type of transient is very unique and important from the gap between fuel channel and the graphite bricks model validation point of view. The measurement results, obtained during this transient, allowed to determine the thermal conductivity coefficient for this gap and to validate the graphite temperature reactivity feedback model. Reactor power reduction is a regular operation procedure during the entire lifetime of the reactor. In all cases it starts by either a scram or a power reduction signal activation by the reactor control and protection system or by an operator. The obtained calculation results demonstrate reasonable agreement with Ignalina NPP measured data. Behaviours of the separate MCC thermal-hydraulic parameters as well as physical processes are predicted reasonably well to the real processes, occurring in the primary circuit of RBMK-1500 reactor. Reasonable agreement of the measured and the calculated total reactor power change in time demonstrates the correct modelling of the neutronic processes taking place in RBMK- 1500 reactor core. And finally, the performed validation of RELAP5-3D model of Ignalina NPP RBMK-1500

A COMETHE version with transient capability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vliet, J. van; Lebon, G.; Mathieu, P.

1980-01-01

A version of the COMETHE code is under development to simulate transient situations. This paper focuses on some aspects of the transient heat transfer models. Initially the coupling between transient heat transfer and other thermomechanical models is discussed. An estimation of the thermal characteristic times shows that the cladding temperatures are often in quasi-steady state. In order to reduce the computing time, calculations are therefore switched from a transient to a quasi-static numerical procedure as soon as such a quasi-equilibrium is detected. The temperature calculation is performed by use of the Lebon-Lambermont restricted variational principle, with piecewise polynoms as trial functions. The method has been checked by comparison with some exact results and yields good agreement for transient as well as for quasi-static situations. This method therefore provides a valuable tool for the simulation of the transient behaviour of nuclear reactor fuel rods. (orig.)

Analysis of transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel using BISON and TRANSURANUS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barani, T.; Bruschi, E.; Pizzocri, D. [Politecnico di Milano, Department of Energy, Nuclear Engineering Division, Via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano (Italy); Pastore, G. [Fuel Modeling and Simulation Department, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Van Uffelen, P. [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Nuclear Safety and Security, P.O. Box 2340, 76125 Karlsruhe (Germany); Williamson, R.L. [Fuel Modeling and Simulation Department, Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3840 (United States); Luzzi, L., E-mail: Lelio.Luzzi@polimi.it [Politecnico di Milano, Department of Energy, Nuclear Engineering Division, Via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano (Italy)

2017-04-01

The modelling of fission gas behaviour is a crucial aspect of nuclear fuel performance analysis in view of the related effects on the thermo-mechanical performance of the fuel rod, which can be particularly significant during transients. In particular, experimental observations indicate that substantial fission gas release (FGR) can occur on a small time scale during transients (burst release). To accurately reproduce the rapid kinetics of the burst release process in fuel performance calculations, a model that accounts for non-diffusional mechanisms such as fuel micro-cracking is needed. In this work, we present and assess a model for transient fission gas behaviour in oxide fuel, which is applied as an extension of conventional diffusion-based models to introduce the burst release effect. The concept and governing equations of the model are presented, and the sensitivity of results to the newly introduced parameters is evaluated through an analytic sensitivity analysis. The model is assessed for application to integral fuel rod analysis by implementation in two structurally different fuel performance codes: BISON (multi-dimensional finite element code) and TRANSURANUS (1.5D code). Model assessment is based on the analysis of 19 light water reactor fuel rod irradiation experiments from the OECD/NEA IFPE (International Fuel Performance Experiments) database, all of which are simulated with both codes. The results point out an improvement in both the quantitative predictions of integral fuel rod FGR and the qualitative representation of the FGR kinetics with the transient model relative to the canonical, purely diffusion-based models of the codes. The overall quantitative improvement of the integral FGR predictions in the two codes is comparable. Moreover, calculated radial profiles of xenon concentration after irradiation are investigated and compared to experimental data, illustrating the underlying representation of the physical mechanisms of burst release

AIRS retrieved CO{sub 2} and its association with climatic parameters over India during 2004–2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, K. Ravi; Revadekar, J.V.; Tiwari, Yogesh K., E-mail: yktiwari@gmail.com

2014-04-01

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved mid-tropospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO{sub 2}) have been used to study the variability and its association with the climatic parameters over India during 2004 to 2011. The study also aims in understanding transport of CO{sub 2} from surface to mid-troposphere over India. The annual cycle of mid-tropospheric CO{sub 2} shows gradual increase in concentration from January till the month of May at the rate ∼ 0.6 ppm/month. It decreases continuously in summer monsoon (JJAS) at the same rate during which strong westerlies persists over the region. A slight increase is seen during winter monsoon (DJF). Being a greenhouse gas, annual cycle of CO{sub 2} show good resemblance with annual cycle of surface air temperature with correlation coefficient (CC) of + 0.8. Annual cycle of vertical velocity indicate inverse pattern compared to annual cycle of CO{sub 2}. High values of mid-tropospheric CO{sub 2} correspond to upward wind, while low values of mid-tropospheric CO{sub 2} correspond to downward wind. In addition to vertical motion, zonal winds are also contributing towards the transport of CO{sub 2} from surface to mid-troposphere. Vegetation as it absorbs CO{sub 2} at surface level, show inverse annual cycle to that of annual cycle of CO{sub 2} (CC-0.64). Seasonal variation of rainfall-CO{sub 2} shows similarities with seasonal variation of NDVI-CO{sub 2}. However, the use of long period data sets for CO{sub 2} at the surface and at the mid-troposphere will be an advantage to confirm these results. - Highlights: • Association of AIRS CO{sub 2} with climate parameters over India • CO{sub 2} show positive correlation with surface temperature • Vertical/horizontal winds contribute towards CO{sub 2} transport • Vegetation and monsoonal rainfall show inverse relationship with CO{sub 2}.

Climate indices of Iran under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

alireza kochaki

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

Science.gov (United States)

Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

2013-12-01

The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme

Basic Thermal Parameters of Selected Foods and Food Raw Materials

OpenAIRE

Monika Božiková; Ľubomír Híreš; Michal Valach; Martin Malínek; Jan Mareček

2017-01-01

In general, processing and manipulation with foods and food raw materials have significant influence on their physical properties. The article is focused on thermophysical parameters measurement of selected foods and food raw materials. There were examined thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of selected materials. For detection of thermal parameters was used instrument Isomet 2104, which principle of measurement is based on transient methods. In text are presented summary results of ...

Improved lumped models for transient combined convective and radiative cooling of a two-layer spherical fuel element

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Alice Cunha da; Su, Jian

2013-01-01

The High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (HTGR) is a fourth generation thermal nuclear reactor, graphite-moderated and helium cooled. The HTGRs have important characteristics making essential the study of these reactors, as well as its fuel element. Examples of these are: high thermal efficiency,low operating costs and construction, passive safety attributes that allow implication of the respective plants. The Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) is a HTGR with spherical fuel elements that named the reactor. This fuel element is composed by a particulate region with spherical inclusions, the fuel UO2 particles, dispersed in a graphite matrix and a convective heat transfer by Helium happens on the outer surface of the fuel element. In this work, the transient heat conduction in a spherical fuel element of a pebble-bed high temperature reactor was studied in a transient situation of combined convective and radiative cooling. Improved lumped parameter model was developed for the transient heat conduction in the two-layer composite sphere subjected to combined convective and radiative cooling. The improved lumped model was obtained through two-point Hermite approximations for integrals. Transient combined convective and radiative cooling of the two-layer spherical fuel element was analyzed to illustrate the applicability of the proposed lumped model, with respect to die rent values of the Biot number, the radiation-conduction parameter, the dimensionless thermal contact resistance, the dimensionless inner diameter and coating thickness, and the dimensionless thermal conductivity. It was shown by comparison with numerical solution of the original distributed parameter model that the improved lumped model, with H2,1/H1,1/H0,0 approximation yielded significant improvement of average temperature prediction over the classical lumped model. (author)

Suppression of thermal transients in advanced LIGO interferometers using CO2 laser preheating

Science.gov (United States)

Jaberian Hamedan, V.; Zhao, C.; Ju, L.; Blair, C.; Blair, D. G.

2018-06-01

In high optical power interferometric gravitational wave detectors, such as Advanced LIGO, the thermal effects due to optical absorption in the mirror coatings and the slow thermal response of fused silica substrate cause time dependent changes in the mirror profile. After locking, high optical power builds up in the arm cavities. Absorption induced heating causes optical cavity transverse mode frequencies to drift over a period of hours, relative to the fundamental mode. At high optical power this can cause time dependent transient parametric instability, which can lead to interferometer disfunction. In this paper, we model the use of CO2 laser heating designed to enable the interferometer to be maintained in a thermal condition such that transient changes in the mirrors are greatly reduced. This can minimize transient parametric instability and compensate dark port power fluctuations. Modeling results are presented for both single compensation where a CO2 laser acting on one test mass per cavity, and double compensation using one CO2 laser for each test mass. Using parameters of the LIGO Hanford Observatory X-arm as an example, single compensation allows the maximum mode frequency shift to be limited to 6% of its uncompensated value. However, single compensation causes transient degradation of the contrast defect. Double compensation minimise contrast defect degradation and reduces transients to less than 1% if the CO2 laser spot is positioned within 2 mm of the cavity beam position.

Development of a test facility for analyzing transients in supercritical water-cooled reactors by fractional scaling analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roberto, Thiago D., E-mail: thiagodbtr@gmail.com [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN—RJ), Rua Hélio de Almeida, 75 21941-972, Rio de Janeiro Caixa-Postal: 68550, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Mário A. B. da, E-mail: mabs500@gmail.com [Departamento de Energia Nuclear (CTG/UFPE), Av. Professor Luiz Freire, 1000, Recife 50740-540, PE (Brazil); Lapa, Celso M.F., E-mail: lapa@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN—RJ), Rua Hélio de Almeida, 75 21941-972, Rio de Janeiro Caixa-Postal: 68550, RJ (Brazil)

2016-01-15

The feasibility of performing experiments using water under supercritical conditions is limited by technical and financial difficulties. These difficulties can be overcome by using model fluids that are characterized by feasible supercritical conditions, that is, lower critical pressure and critical temperature. Experimental investigations are normally used to determine the conditions under which model fluids reliably represent supercritical fluids under steady-state conditions. A fluid-to-fluid scaling approach has been proposed to determine the model fluids that represent supercritical fluids in a transient state. Recently, a similar technique known as fractional scaling analysis was developed to establish the conditions under which experiments can be performed using models that represent transients in prototypes. This paper presents a fractional scaling analysis application to determine parameters for a test facility in which transient conditions in supercritical water-cooled reactors are simulated by using carbon dioxide as a model fluid, whose critical point conditions are more feasible than those of water. Similarity is obtained between water (prototype) and carbon dioxide (model) by depressurization in a simple vessel. The main parameters required for the construction of a future test facility are obtained using the proposed method.

Development of a test facility for analyzing transients in supercritical water-cooled reactors by fractional scaling analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberto, Thiago D.; Silva, Mário A. B. da; Lapa, Celso M.F.

2016-01-01

The feasibility of performing experiments using water under supercritical conditions is limited by technical and financial difficulties. These difficulties can be overcome by using model fluids that are characterized by feasible supercritical conditions, that is, lower critical pressure and critical temperature. Experimental investigations are normally used to determine the conditions under which model fluids reliably represent supercritical fluids under steady-state conditions. A fluid-to-fluid scaling approach has been proposed to determine the model fluids that represent supercritical fluids in a transient state. Recently, a similar technique known as fractional scaling analysis was developed to establish the conditions under which experiments can be performed using models that represent transients in prototypes. This paper presents a fractional scaling analysis application to determine parameters for a test facility in which transient conditions in supercritical water-cooled reactors are simulated by using carbon dioxide as a model fluid, whose critical point conditions are more feasible than those of water. Similarity is obtained between water (prototype) and carbon dioxide (model) by depressurization in a simple vessel. The main parameters required for the construction of a future test facility are obtained using the proposed method.

Soft error rate analysis methodology of multi-Pulse-single-event transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Bin; Huo Mingxue; Xiao Liyi

2012-01-01

As transistor feature size scales down, soft errors in combinational logic because of high-energy particle radiation is gaining more and more concerns. In this paper, a combinational logic soft error analysis methodology considering multi-pulse-single-event transients (MPSETs) and re-convergence with multi transient pulses is proposed. In the proposed approach, the voltage pulse produced at the standard cell output is approximated by a triangle waveform, and characterized by three parameters: pulse width, the transition time of the first edge, and the transition time of the second edge. As for the pulse with the amplitude being smaller than the supply voltage, the edge extension technique is proposed. Moreover, an efficient electrical masking model comprehensively considering transition time, delay, width and amplitude is proposed, and an approach using the transition times of two edges and pulse width to compute the amplitude of pulse is proposed. Finally, our proposed firstly-independently-propagating-secondly-mutually-interacting (FIP-SMI) is used to deal with more practical re-convergence gate with multi transient pulses. As for MPSETs, a random generation model of MPSETs is exploratively proposed. Compared to the estimates obtained using circuit level simulations by HSpice, our proposed soft error rate analysis algorithm has 10% errors in SER estimation with speed up of 300 when the single-pulse-single-event transient (SPSET) is considered. We have also demonstrated the runtime and SER decrease with the increment of P0 using designs from the ISCAS-85 benchmarks. (authors)

Research of the transient management in TQNPC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Longzhang; Lin Chuanqing

2008-01-01

Transient management is the basic technical subject in nuclear power plant. Since the Third Qinshan nuclear power company (TQNPC) successful completes the commissioning in 2003, the transient management work start at the transient management item selection and the flow definition. Now TQNPC have a complete transient management system and the management flow. In the last two years, TNQPC have finished the historic transient data collection for two units, and confirmed that the plant's key systems and equipments are at safe state. The development of the transient management subject would build a reliable foundation for the plant safe operation, plant lifetime management and periodic safety review. (author)

Compressive Transient Imaging

KAUST Repository

Sun, Qilin

2017-04-01

High resolution transient/3D imaging technology is of high interest in both scientific research and commercial application. Nowadays, all of the transient imaging methods suffer from low resolution or time consuming mechanical scanning. We proposed a new method based on TCSPC and Compressive Sensing to achieve a high resolution transient imaging with a several seconds capturing process. Picosecond laser sends a serious of equal interval pulse while synchronized SPAD camera\\'s detecting gate window has a precise phase delay at each cycle. After capturing enough points, we are able to make up a whole signal. By inserting a DMD device into the system, we are able to modulate all the frames of data using binary random patterns to reconstruct a super resolution transient/3D image later. Because the low fill factor of SPAD sensor will make a compressive sensing scenario ill-conditioned, We designed and fabricated a diffractive microlens array. We proposed a new CS reconstruction algorithm which is able to denoise at the same time for the measurements suffering from Poisson noise. Instead of a single SPAD senor, we chose a SPAD array because it can drastically reduce the requirement for the number of measurements and its reconstruction time. Further more, it not easy to reconstruct a high resolution image with only one single sensor while for an array, it just needs to reconstruct small patches and a few measurements. In this thesis, we evaluated the reconstruction methods using both clean measurements and the version corrupted by Poisson noise. The results show how the integration over the layers influence the image quality and our algorithm works well while the measurements suffer from non-trival Poisson noise. It\\'s a breakthrough in the areas of both transient imaging and compressive sensing.

Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Moses, Oliver; Hambira, Wame L.

2018-06-01

In semi-arid developing countries, most poor people depend on contaminated surface or groundwater resources since they do not have access to safe and centrally supplied water. These water resources are threatened by several factors that include high evapotranspiration rates. In the Okavango Delta region in the north-western Botswana, communities facing insufficient centrally supplied water rely mainly on the surface water resources of the Delta. The Delta loses about 98% of its water through evapotranspiration. However, the 2% remaining water rescues the communities facing insufficient water from the main stream water supply. To understand the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources, this study analysed trends in the main climatic parameters needed as input variables in evapotranspiration models. The Mann Kendall test was used in the analysis. Trend analysis is crucial since it reveals the direction of trends in the climatic parameters, which is helpful in determining the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The main climatic parameters required as input variables in evapotranspiration models that were of interest in this study were wind speeds, solar radiation and relative humidity. Very little research has been conducted on these climatic parameters in the Okavango Delta region. The conducted trend analysis was more on wind speeds, which had relatively longer data records than the other two climatic parameters of interest. Generally, statistically significant increasing trends have been found, which suggests that climate change is likely to further increase evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources.

Analysis of transient state in HTS tapes under ripple DC load current

Science.gov (United States)

Stepien, M.; Grzesik, B.

2014-05-01

The paper concerns the analysis of transient state (quench transition) in HTS tapes loaded with the current having DC component together with a ripple component. Two shapes of the ripple were taken into account: sinusoidal and triangular. Very often HTS tape connected to a power electronic current supply (i.e. superconducting coil for SMES) that delivers DC current with ripples and it needs to be examined under such conditions. Additionally, measurements of electrical (and thermal) parameters under such ripple excitation is useful to tape characterization in broad range of load currents. The results presented in the paper were obtained using test bench which contains programmable DC supply and National Instruments data acquisition system. Voltage drops and load currents were measured vs. time. Analysis of measured parameters as a function of the current was used to tape description with quench dynamics taken into account. Results of measurements were also used to comparison with the results of numerical modelling based on FEM. Presented provisional results show possibility to use results of measurements in transient state to prepare inverse models of superconductors and their detailed numerical modelling.

Numerical Investigation of Transient Flow in a Prototype Centrifugal Pump during Startup Period

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yu-Liang; Zhu, Zu-Chao; Dou, Hua-Shu; Cui, Bao-Ling; Li, Yi; Zhou, Zhao-Zhong

2017-05-01

Transient performance of pumps during transient operating periods, such as startup and stopping, has drawn more and more attentions recently due to the growing engineering needs. During the startup period of a pump, the performance parameters such as the flow rate and head would vary significantly in a broad range. Therefore, it is very difficult to accurately specify the unsteady boundary conditions for a pump alone to solve the transient flow in the absence of experimental results. The closed-loop pipe system including a centrifugal pump is built to accomplish the self-coupling calculation. The three-dimensional unsteady incompressible viscous flow inside the passage of the pump during startup period is numerically simulated using the dynamic mesh method. Simulation results show that there are tiny fluctuations in the flow rate even under stable operating conditions and this can be attributed to influence of the rotor-stator interaction. At the very beginning of the startup, the rising speed of the flow rate is lower than that of the rotational speed. It is also found that it is not suitable to predict the transient performance of pumps using the calculation method of quasi-steady flow, especially at the earlier period of the startup.

Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

Science.gov (United States)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

2017-04-01

Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface

Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

PWR station blackout transient simulation in the INER integral system test facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, T.J.; Lee, C.H.; Hong, W.T.; Chang, Y.H.

2004-01-01

Station blackout transient (or TMLB' scenario) in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) was simulated using the INER Integral System Test Facility (IIST) which is a 1/400 volumetrically-scaled reduce-height and reduce-pressure (RHRP) simulator of a Westinghouse three-loop PWR. Long-term thermal-hydraulic responses including the secondary boil-off and the subsequent primary saturation, pressurization and core uncovery were simulated based on the assumptions of no offsite and onsite power, feedwater and operator actions. The results indicate that two-phase discharge is the major depletion mode since it covers 81.3% of the total amount of the coolant inventory loss. The primary coolant inventory has experienced significant re-distribution during a station blackout transient. The decided parameter to avoid the core overheating is not the total amount of the coolant inventory remained in the primary core cooling system but only the part of coolant left in the pressure vessel. The sequence of significant events during transient for the IIST were also compared with those of the ROSA-IV large-scale test facility (LSTF), which is a 1/48 volumetrically-scaled full-height and full-pressure (FHFP) simulator of a PWR. The comparison indicates that the sequence and timing of these events during TMLB' transient studied in the RHRP IIST facility are generally consistent with those of the FHFP LSTF. (author)

A transient absorption study of allophycocyanin

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Transient dynamics of allophycocyanin trimers and monomers are observed by using the pump-probe, transient absorption technique. The origin of spectral components of the transient absorption spectra is discussed in terms of both kinetics and spectroscopy. We find that the energy gap between the ground and excited ...

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

Science.gov (United States)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

2009-05-15

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

A novel dual-wavelength laser stimulator to elicit transient and tonic nociceptive stimulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Xiaoxi; Liu, Tianjun; Wang, Han; Yang, Jichun; Chen, Zhuying; Hu, Yong; Li, Yingxin

2017-07-01

This study aimed to develop a new laser stimulator to elicit both transient and sustained heat stimulation with a dual-wavelength laser system as a tool for the investigation of both transient and tonic experimental models of pain. The laser stimulator used a 980-nm pulsed laser to generate transient heat stimulation and a 1940-nm continuous-wave (CW) laser to provide sustained heat stimulation. The laser with 980-nm wavelength can elicit transient pain with less thermal injury, while the 1940-nm CW laser can effectively stimulate both superficial and deep nociceptors to elicit tonic pain. A proportional integral-derivative (PID) temperature feedback control system was implemented to ensure constancy of temperature during heat stimulation. The performance of this stimulator was evaluated by in vitro and in vivo animal experiments. In vitro experiments on totally 120 specimens fresh pig skin included transient heat stimulation by 980-nm laser (1.5 J, 10 ms), sustained heat stimulation by 1940-nm laser (50-55 °C temperature control mode or 1.5 W, 5 min continuous power supply), and the combination of transient/sustained heat stimulation by dual lasers (1.5 J, 10 ms, 980-nm pulse laser, and 1940-nm laser with 50-55 °C temperature control mode). Hemoglobin brushing and wind-cooling methods were tested to find better stimulation model. A classic tail-flick latency (TFL) experiment with 20 Wistar rats was used to evaluate the in vivo efficacy of transient and tonic pain stimulation with 15 J, 100 ms 980-nm single laser pulse, and 1.5 W constant 1940-nm laser power. Ideal stimulation parameters to generate transient pain were found to be a 26.6 °C peak temperature rise and 0.67 s pain duration. In our model of tonic pain, 5 min of tonic stimulation produced a temperature change of 53.7 ± 1.3 °C with 1.6 ± 0.2% variation. When the transient and tonic stimulation protocols were combined, no significant difference was observed depending on the order

The bomb 14C transient in the Pacific Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Keith B.; Schrag, Daniel P.; Cane, Mark A.; Naik, Naomi H.

2000-04-01

A modeling study of the bomb 14C transient is presented for the Pacific Ocean. A primitive equation ocean circulation model has been configured for a high-resolution domain that accounts for the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Four separate runs were performed: (1) seasonal forcing with 20 Sv of ITF transport, (2) seasonal forcing with 10 Sv of ITF transport, (3) seasonal forcing with no ITF transport, and (4) interannual forcing with 15 Sv of ITF transport. This study has two main objectives. First, it is intended to describe the time evolution of the bomb 14C transient. This serves as a tool with which one can identify the physical processes controlling the evolving bomb 14C distribution in the Pacific thermocline and thus provides an interpretive framework for the database of Δ14C measurements in the Pacific. Second, transient tracers are applied to the physical oceanographic problem of intergyre exchange. This is of importance in furthering our understanding of the potential role of the upper Pacific Ocean in climate variability. We use bomb 14C as a dye tracer of intergyre exchange between the subtropical gyres and the equatorial upwelling regions of the equatorial Pacific. Observations show that while the atmospheric Δ14C signal peaked in the early to mid-1960s, the Δ14C levels in the surface water waters of the subtropical gyres peaked near 1970, and the Δ14C of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific continued to rise through the 1980s. It is shown that the model exhibits skill in representing the large-scale observed features observed for the bomb 14C transient in the Pacific Ocean. The model successfully captures the basin-scale inventories of bomb 14C in the tropics as well as in the extratropics of the North Pacific. For the equatorial Pacific this is attributed to the model's high meridional resolution. The discrepancies in the three-dimensional distribution of bomb 14C between the model and data are discussed within the context of the dynamical

The joy of transient chaos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tél, Tamás [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, and MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Pázmány P. s. 1/A, Budapest H-1117 (Hungary)

2015-09-15

We intend to show that transient chaos is a very appealing, but still not widely appreciated, subfield of nonlinear dynamics. Besides flashing its basic properties and giving a brief overview of the many applications, a few recent transient-chaos-related subjects are introduced in some detail. These include the dynamics of decision making, dispersion, and sedimentation of volcanic ash, doubly transient chaos of undriven autonomous mechanical systems, and a dynamical systems approach to energy absorption or explosion.

The joy of transient chaos.

Science.gov (United States)

Tél, Tamás

2015-09-01

We intend to show that transient chaos is a very appealing, but still not widely appreciated, subfield of nonlinear dynamics. Besides flashing its basic properties and giving a brief overview of the many applications, a few recent transient-chaos-related subjects are introduced in some detail. These include the dynamics of decision making, dispersion, and sedimentation of volcanic ash, doubly transient chaos of undriven autonomous mechanical systems, and a dynamical systems approach to energy absorption or explosion.

The ZTF Bright Transient Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Fremling, C.; Sharma, Y.; Kulkarni, S. R.; Miller, A. A.; Taggart, K.; Perley, D. A.; Gooba, A.

2018-06-01

As a supplement to the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF; ATel #11266) public alerts (ATel #11685) we plan to report (following ATel #11615) bright probable supernovae identified in the raw alert stream from the ZTF Northern Sky Survey ("Celestial Cinematography"; see Bellm & Kulkarni, 2017, Nature Astronomy 1, 71) to the Transient Name Server (https://wis-tns.weizmann.ac.il) on a daily basis; the ZTF Bright Transient Survey (BTS; see Kulkarni et al., 2018; arXiv:1710.04223).

Investigating the impact of in-vehicle transients on diesel soot emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipi Zoran

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes development of a test cell setup for concurrent running of a real engine and a simulation of the vehicle system, and its use for investigating highly-dynamic engine-in-vehicle operation and its effect on diesel engine emissions. Running an engine in the test cell under conditions experienced in the vehicle enables acquiring detailed insight into dynamic interactions between power train sub-systems, and the impact of it on fuel consumption and transient emissions. This type of data may otherwise be difficult and extremely costly to obtain from a vehicle prototype test. In particular, engine system response during critical transients and the effect of transient excursions on emissions are investigated using advanced, fast-response test instrumentation and emissions analyzers. Main enablers of the work include the highly dynamic AC electric dynamometer with the accompanying computerized control system and the computationally efficient simulation of the driveline/vehicle system. The latter is developed through systematic energy-based proper modeling that tailors the virtual model to capture critical powertrain transients while running in real time. Coupling the real engine with the virtual driveline/vehicle offers a chance to easily modify vehicle parameters, and even study different power train configurations. In particular, the paper describes the engine-in-the-loop study of a V-8, 6l engine coupled to a virtual 4´4 off road vehicle. This engine is considered as a high-performance option for this truck and the real prototype of the complete vehicle does not exist yet. The results shed light on critical transients in a conventional powertrain and their effect on NOx and soot emissions. Measurements demonstrate very large spikes of particulate concentration at the initiation of vehicle acceleration events. Characterization of transients and their effect on particulate emission provides a basis for devising engine-level or

Determination of the failure probability in the weld region of ap-600 vessel for transient condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahyono, I.P.

1997-01-01

Failure probability in the weld region of AP-600 vessel was determined for transient condition scenario. The type of transient is increase of the heat removal from primary cooling system due to sudden opening of safety valves or steam relief valves on the secondary cooling system or the steam generator. Temperature and pressure in the vessel was considered as the base of deterministic calculation of the stress intensity factor. Calculation of film coefficient of the convective heat transfers is a function of the transient time and water parameter. Pressure, material temperature, flaw depth and transient time are variables for the stress intensity factor. Failure probability consideration was done by using the above information in regard with the flaw and probability distributions of Octavia II and Marshall. Calculation of the failure probability by probability fracture mechanic simulation is applied on the weld region. Failure of the vessel is assumed as a failure of the weld material with one crack which stress intensity factor applied is higher than the critical stress intensity factor. VISA II code (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis II) was used for deterministic calculation and simulation. Failure probability of the material is 1.E-5 for Octavia II distribution and 4E-6 for marshall distribution for each transient event postulated. The failure occurred at the 1.7th menit of the initial transient under 12.53 ksi of the pressure

Explosive and radio-selected Transients: Transient Astronomy with ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

40

sitive measurements will lead to very accurate mass loss estimation in these supernovae. .... transients are powerful probes of intervening media owing to dispersion ...... A., & Chandra, P. 2011, Nature Communications,. 2, 175. Chakraborti, S.

Importance of determining the climatic domains of sheep breeds.

Science.gov (United States)

Petit, D; Boujenane, I

2018-07-01

The main purpose of the study was to compare the capacity of the major sheep breeds in Morocco to cope with climate changes through the ranges of several climate parameters in which they can be found. We first delimitated the climatic 'domains' of each breed by constructing a database including altitude and climatic parameters (minima mean of the coldest month, maxima mean of the hottest month, annual rainfall, pluviothermic coefficient of Emberger Q 2, annual minima mean and annual maxima mean) on a 30-year period using the representative stations of each breed distribution. The overlap between each breed combination was quantified through a canonical analysis that extracted the most discriminant parameters. The variance analysis of each climatic parameter evidenced two breeds remarkable by their tolerance. The first one is the Timahdite, mainly settled in areas over 1100 m, which can tolerate the greatest variations in annual rainfall and pluviothermic coefficient. In spite of this feature, this breed is endangered owing to the decreasing quality of pastures. The second one is the D'man which apparently can support high variations in extreme temperatures. In fact, this breed is not well adapted to pastures and requires a special microclimate offered by oases. The information reported in this study will be the basis for the establishment of characterization and selection strategies for Moroccan sheep.

Development of a computer code for transients simulation in PWR type reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvim, A.C.M.; Botelho, D.A.; Oliveira Barroso, A.C. de

1981-01-01

A computer code for the simulation of operacional-transients and accidents in PWR type reactors is being developed at IEN (Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear). Accidents will be considered in which variations in thermohydraulics parameters of fuel and coolant don't cause nucleate boiling in the reactor core, but, otherwise are sufficiently strong to justify a more detailed simulation than that used in linearized models. (E.G.) [pt

Aerosol Radiative Impact on the Middle East Regional Climate and the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Osipov, Sergey

2017-10-01

The climate in the Middle East is complex and remains poorly understood. Due to the vast Arabian Desert, it is very sensitive to radiative forcing. Mineral dust is the dominant aerosol in this region. High background dust loading and frequent dust outbreaks significantly perturb the radiative balance and contribute to climate variability in the Middle East. To assess the climatological impact of dust in the region, we derived the aerosol optical properties and used a standalone column model to quantify radiative forcing sensitivity to a range of parameters representative of the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea. Simulations and modeling assumptions were validated using available in situ observations and satellite retrievals for fair weather and dust storm conditions. We incorporated the optical properties into the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model and conducted simulations that represent the regional climate. The analysis shows that dust cools the Earth-atmosphere system and thus offsets the warming due to greenhouse gases. Dust reduces the sea surface temperature by 0.4 K, significantly perturbs energy balance, overturning circulation, and its purely dynamical impact reduces biological productivity in the Red Sea. In the real world, dust is present permanently and this does not allow to directly observe the climate response to the dust forcing. Volcanic eruptions produce a transient radiative impact that causes a detectable climate response that could be evaluated from observations and compared with simulations. Large equatorial eruptions are known to significantly perturb the Earth’s climate on the global scale, but their regional impact on the Middle East has not been thoroughly investigated. For example, the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption had a profound effect on the MENA and caused extensive coral bleaching in the Gulf of Aqaba. The analysis shows that observed cooling in the Middle East was mostly driven by changes in the atmospheric large

Transient recovery voltage analysis for various current breaking mathematical models: shunt reactor and capacitor bank de-energization study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oramus Piotr

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Electric arc is a complex phenomenon occurring during the current interruption process in the power system. Therefore performing digital simulations is often necessary to analyse transient conditions in power system during switching operations. This paper deals with the electric arc modelling and its implementation in simulation software for transient analyses during switching conditions in power system. Cassie, Cassie-Mayr as well as Schwarz-Avdonin equations describing the behaviour of the electric arc during the current interruption process have been implemented in EMTP-ATP simulation software and presented in this paper. The models developed have been used for transient simulations to analyse impact of the particular model and its parameters on Transient Recovery Voltage in different switching scenarios: during shunt reactor switching-off as well as during capacitor bank current switching-off. The selected simulation cases represent typical practical scenarios for inductive and capacitive currents breaking, respectively.

Concrete creep at transient temperature: constitutive law and mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chern, J.C.; Bazant, Z.P.; Marchertas, A.H.

1985-01-01

A constitutive law which describes the transient thermal creep of concrete is presented. Moisture and temperature are two major parameters in this constitutive law. Aside from load, creep, cracking, and thermal (shrinkage) strains, stress-induced hygrothermal strains are also included in the analysis. The theory agrees with most types of test data which include basic creep, thermal expansion, shrinkage, swelling, creep at cyclic heating or drying, and creep at heating under compression or bending. Examples are given to demonstrate agreement between the theory and the experimental data. 15 refs., 6 figs

Solution to the inversely stated transient source-receptor problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sajo, E.; Sheff, J.R.

1995-01-01

Transient source-receptor problems are traditionally handled via the Boltzmann equation or through one of its variants. In the atmospheric transport of pollutants, meteorological uncertainties in the planetary boundary layer render only a few approximations to the Boltzmann equation useful. Often, due to the high number of unknowns, the atmospheric source-receptor problem is ill-posed. Moreover, models to estimate downwind concentration invariably assume that the source term is known. In this paper, an inverse methodology is developed, based on downwind measurement of concentration and that of meterological parameters to estimate the source term

Ultrafast triggered transient energy storage by atomic layer deposition into porous silicon for integrated transient electronics