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Sample records for outbreaks ii sunspot

  1. Sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, R.; Rabin, D.

    1985-01-01

    It is pointed out that the sun provides a close-up view of many astrophysically important phenomena, nearly all connected with the causes and effects of solar magnetic fields. The present article provides a review of the role of sunspots in a number of new areas of research. Connections with other solar phenomena are examined, taking into account flares, the solar magnetic cycle, global flows, luminosity variation, and global oscillations. A selective review of the structure and dynamic phenomena observed within sunspots is also presented. It is found that sunspots are usually contorted during the growth phase of an active region as magnetic field rapidly emerges and sunspots form, coalesce, and move past or even through each other. Attention is given to structure and flows, oscillations and waves, and plans for future studies. 145 references

  2. Sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priest, E.R.

    1982-01-01

    The existence of sunspots has been known since ancient times, but it was only at the beginning of this century that they were found to be the sites of very strong magnetic fields, and it was realised that they represent the places where huge magnetic flux tubes burst through the solar surface. A theoretical understanding of sunspots has had to await the development of magnetohydrodynamics; however, even now, there is some controversy about answers to fundamental questions, such as: why is a sunspot cool, what is its equilibrium structure and how is it formed. Other topics that are discussed in the present chapter include magnetoconvection and the process of magnetic buoyancy whereby a flux tube deep within the Sun tends to rise towards the surface because it is lighter than its surroundings. Outside active regions the magnetic flux is not spread out uniformly to a weak field of a few Gauss, but instead it is mainly concentrated at supergranulation boundaries into intense flux tubes, whose properties are discussed. (Auth.)

  3. Association of Plages with Sunspots: A Multi-Wavelength Study Using Kodaikanal Ca ii K and Greenwich Sunspot Area Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: sudip@iiap.res.in [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore 560034 (India)

    2017-02-01

    Plages are the magnetically active chromospheric structures prominently visible in the Ca ii K line (3933.67 Å). A plage may or may not be associated with a sunspot, which is a magnetic structure visible in the solar photosphere. In this study we explore this aspect of association of plages with sunspots using the newly digitized Kodaikanal Ca ii K plage data and the Greenwich sunspot area data. Instead of using the plage index or fractional plage area and its comparison with the sunspot number, we use, to our knowledge for the first time, the individual plage areas and compare them with the sunspot area time series. Our analysis shows that these two structures, formed in two different layers, are highly correlated with each other on a timescale comparable to the solar cycle. The area and the latitudinal distributions of plages are also similar to those of sunspots. Different area thresholdings on the “butterfly diagram” reveal that plages of area ≥4 arcmin{sup 2} are mostly associated with a sunspot in the photosphere. Apart from this, we found that the cyclic properties change when plages of different sizes are considered separately. These results may help us to better understand the generation and evolution of the magnetic structures in different layers of the solar atmosphere.

  4. Occurrences of flares with type II and IV radio events in interacting sunspot groups in the course of revolutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimes, J.; Krivsky, L.

    1984-01-01

    Using data from 11-year solar cycle No. 20, it was found that flares with type II radio bursts are more than twice as frequent and flares with type IV bursts nearly twice as frequent in sunspot groups which developed close to each other or which merged in the course of revolutions than in isolated sunspot groups. With both types the occurrence of these flares is concentrated in the revolution of the so-called sunspot group interaction (their approximation, merging). (author)

  5. Long-term variations in the geomagnetic activity level Part II: Ascending phases of sunspot cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Mussino

    1994-08-01

    Full Text Available Monthly averages of the Helsinki Ak-values have been reduced to the equivalent aa-indices to extend the aa-data set back to 1844. A periodicity of about five cycles was found for the correlation coefficient (r between geomagnetic indices and sunspot numbers for the ascending phases of sunspot cycles 9 to 22, confirming previous findings based on a minor number of sunspot cycles. The result is useful to researchers in topics related to solar-terrestrial physics, particularly for the interpretation of long-term trends in geomagnetic activity during the past, and to forecast geomagnetic activity levels in the future.

  6. Absorption of acoustic waves by sunspots. II - Resonance absorption in axisymmetric fibril models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, C. S.

    1992-01-01

    Analytical calculations of acoustic waves scattered by sunspots which concentrate on the absorption at the magnetohydrodynamic Alfven resonance are extended to the case of a flux-tube embedded in a uniform atmosphere. The model is based on a flux-tubes of varying radius that are highly structured, translationally invariant, and axisymmetric. The absorbed fractional energy is determined for different flux-densities and subphotospheric locations with attention given to the effects of twist. When the flux is highly concentrated into annuli efficient absorption is possible even when the mean magnetic flux density is low. The model demonstrates low absorption at low azimuthal orders even in the presence of twist which generally increases the range of wave numbers over which efficient absorption can occur. Resonance absorption is concluded to be an efficient mechanism in monolithic sunspots, fibril sunspots, and plage fields.

  7. On sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Galilei, Galileo; Reeves, Eileen; Helden, Albert van

    2010-01-01

    Galileo's telescopic discoveries, and especially his observation of sunspots, caused great debate in an age when the heavens were thought to be perfect and unchanging. Christoph Scheiner, a Jesuit mathematician, argued that sunspots were planets or moons crossing in front of the Sun. Galileo, on the other hand, countered that the spots were on or near the surface of the Sun itself, and he supported his position with a series of meticulous observations and mathematical demonstrations that eventually convinced even his rival.  On Sunspots collects the correspondenc

  8. Sunspots and the physics of magnetic flux tubes. II. Aerodynamic drag

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, E.N.

    1979-01-01

    The aerodynamic drag on a slender flux tube stretched vertically across a convective cell may push the flux tube into the updrafts or into the downdrafts, depending on the density stratification of the convecting fluid and the asymmetry of the fluid motions. The drag is approximately proportional to the local kinetic energy density, so the density stratification weights the drag in favor of the upper layers where the density is low, tending to push the vertical tube into the downdrafts. If, however, the horizontal motions in the convective cell are concentrated toward the bottom of the cell, they may dominate over the upper layers, pushing the tube into the updrafts. In the simple, idealized circumstance of a vertical tube extending across a fluid of uniform density in a convective cell that is symmetric about its midplane, the net aerodynamic drag vanishes in lowest order. The higher order contributions, including the deflection of the tube, then provide a nonvanishing force pushing the tube into a stable equilibrium midway between the updraft and the downdraft.It is pointed out that in the strongly stratified convective zone of the Sun, a downdraft herds flux tubes together into a cluster, while an updraft disperses them. To account for the observed strong cohesion of the cluster of flux tubes that make up a sunspot, we propose a downdraft of the order 2 km s - 1 through the cluster of seprate tubes beneath the sunspot

  9. Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. II - Stokes profiles and vector field samples in sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewagama, Tilak; Deming, Drake; Jennings, Donald E.; Osherovich, Vladimir; Wiedemann, Gunter; Zipoy, David; Mickey, Donald L.; Garcia, Howard

    1993-01-01

    Polarimetric observations at 12 microns of two sunpots are reported. The horizontal distribution of parameters such as magnetic field strength, inclination, azimuth, and magnetic field filling factors are presented along with information about the height dependence of the magnetic field strength. Comparisons with contemporary magnetostatic sunspot models are made. The magnetic data are used to estimate the height of 12 micron line formation. From the data, it is concluded that within a stable sunspot there are no regions that are magnetically filamentary, in the sense of containing both strong-field and field-free regions.

  10. Coordination failure caused by sunspots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beugnot, Julie; Gürgüç, Zeynep; Øvlisen, Frederik Roose

    2012-01-01

    on the efficient equilibrium, we consider sunspots as a potential reason for coordination failure. We conduct an experiment with a three player 2x2x2 game in which coordination on the efficient equilibrium is easy and should normally occur. In the control session, we find almost perfect coordination on the payoff......-dominant equilibrium, but in the sunspot treatment, dis-coordination is frequent. Sunspots lead to significant inefficiency, and we conclude that sunspots can indeed cause coordination failure....

  11. On two populations of sunspot groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuklin, G.V.

    1980-01-01

    The principal component method was applied studying the sunspot groups distribution in respect to the maximum area for the individual 11-year cycles 12 to 19 (Lopez Arroyo and Lahulla, 1974) and for the years 1900 to 1964 (Mandrykina, 1974). The existence of two populations of sunspot groups is confirmed. The variations of the importance parameter q, which determines the population shares, in the 80-, 22- and 11-year cycles are considered. The obtained maximal area distributions for populations I and II are approximated by linear combination of logarithmic-normal distributions, the subpopulations Ia, Ib, Ic by the most probable maximum areas of 22, 298 and 90 mvh, respectively, and the subpopulations IIa, IIb, IIc by the most probable maximal areas of 6, 142 and 754 mvh, respectively. The characteristic distinction between populations I and II is apparently the magnetic structure of the groups belonging to them (bipolar and unipolar ones). (author)

  12. The sunspot cycle revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomb, Nick

    2013-01-01

    The set of sunspot numbers observed since the invention of the telescope is one of the most studied time series in astronomy and yet it is also one of the most complex. Fourteen frequencies are found in the yearly mean sunspot numbers from 1700 to 2011using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and prewhitening. All of the frequencies corresponding to shorter term periods can be matched with simple algebraic combinations of the frequency of the main 11-year period and the frequencies of the longer term periods in the periodogram. This is exactly what can be expected from amplitude and phase modulation of an 11.12-year periodicity by longer term variations. Similar, though not identical, results are obtained after correcting the sunspot number series as proposed by Svalgaard. On looking separately at the amplitude and phase modulation a clear relationship is found between the two modulations although this relationship has broken down for the last four solar cycles. The phase modulation implies that there is a definite underlying period for the solar cycle. Such a clock mechanism does seem to be a possibility in models of the solar dynamo incorporating a conveyor-belt-like meridional circulation between high polar latitudes and the equator.

  13. [Lessons learnt from the German smallpox outbreaks after World War II].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasse, Julia; Gelderblom, Hans R

    2015-07-01

    Even though smallpox was declared eradicated by WHO in 1980, it cannot be ruled out that the etiological variola virus could be used as a biological weapon. Undestroyed viruses from biowarfare programmes, virus strains left undetected in a freezer or dangerous recombinant poxvirus constructs could cause dangerous outbreaks in a relatively unprotected population. Despite an abundance of studies performed during the eradication of smallpox, epidemiological data for preparedness planning and outbreak control in modern, industrialized countries are scarce. Full-text hand search for the period from 1945 to 1975 in the main German public health journals. After World War II 12 smallpox outbreaks occurred in Germany. They were studied with the focus on the period of contagiousness, the protective effect of vaccination, booster-effect of revaccination and the place of infection. A total of 95 individuals contracted smallpox, including 10 fatalities. Despite having been previously vaccinated, 81 vaccinated persons came down with smallpox, yet 91% of them developed only mild symptoms. These patients presented a high risk for spreading the infection to contact persons due to misinterpretation of symptoms and the continuing social contacts. Basically, the risk of transmission in the first 2 to 3 days after onset of symptoms was low, thus facilitating antiepidemic measures. The importance of hospital preparedness is emphasized by the fact that most infections occurred in hospitals. The data analyzed provide valuable information for today's outbreak response planning and counter bioterrorism preparedness.

  14. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Resonant behaviour of MHD waves on magnetic flux tubes. I - Connection formulae at the resonant surfaces. II - Absorption of sound waves by sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Takashi; Goossens, Marcel; Hollweg, Joseph V.

    1991-01-01

    The present method of addressing the resonance problems that emerge in such MHD phenomena as the resonant absorption of waves at the Alfven resonance point avoids solving the fourth-order differential equation of dissipative MHD by recourse to connection formulae across the dissipation layer. In the second part of this investigation, the absorption of solar 5-min oscillations by sunspots is interpreted as the resonant absorption of sounds by a magnetic cylinder. The absorption coefficient is interpreted (1) analytically, under certain simplifying assumptions, and numerically, under more general conditions. The observed absorption coefficient magnitude is explained over suitable parameter ranges.

  16. Photoelectric observations of propagating sunspot oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lites, B.W.; White, O.R.; Packman, D.

    1982-01-01

    The Sacramento Park Observatory Vacuum Tower Telescope and diode array were used to make repeated intensity and velocity images of a large, isolated sunspot in both a chromospheric (lambda8542 Ca II) and a photospheric (lambda5576 Fe I) line. The movie of the digital data for the chromospheric line shows clearly a relationship between the propagating umbral disturbances and the running penumbral waves. The velocities for transverse propagating of the umbral and penumbral disturbances are 60--70 km s -1 and 20--35 km s -1 , respectively. Power spectra of the oscillations show a sharp peak at a period of about 170 s in both the velocity and intensity signals. The rms velocity fluctuation of this power peak is 0.26 km s -1 . The oscillations at any given point in the sunspot are very regular, and the phase relationship between the velocity and intensity of the chromospheric oscillations is radically different than that for the quiet Sun. Our preliminary interpretation of the phase relationship involves acoustic waves with wave vector directed downwards along the magnetic field lines; however, this interpretation relies on assumptions involved in the data reduction scheme. The mechanical energy flux carried by the observed umbral disturbances does not appear to be a significant contributor to the overall energy budget of the sunspot or the surrounding active region

  17. Transmission patterns of smallpox: systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boer Rob

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because smallpox (variola major may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. Methods A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library of Medicine, Embase, Biosis, Cochrane Library, Defense Technical Information Center, WorldCat, and reference lists of included publications. Two authors reviewed selected papers for smallpox outbreaks. Results 51 relevant outbreaks were identified from 1,389 publications. The median for the effective first generation reproduction rate (initial R was 2 (range 0–38. The majority outbreaks were small (less than 5 cases and contained within one generation. Outbreaks with few hospitalized patients had low initial R values (median of 1 and were prolonged if not initially recognized (median of 3 generations; outbreaks with mostly hospitalized patients had higher initial R values (median 12 and were shorter (median of 3 generations. Index cases with an atypical presentation of smallpox were less likely to have been diagnosed with smallpox; outbreaks in which the index case was not correctly diagnosed were larger (median of 27.5 cases and longer (median of 3 generations compared to outbreaks in which the index case was correctly diagnosed (median of 3 cases and 1 generation. Conclusion Patterns of spread during Smallpox outbreaks varied with circumstances, but early detection and implementation of control measures is a most important influence on the magnitude of outbreaks. The majority of outbreaks studied in Europe and North America were controlled within a few generations if detected early.

  18. Oscillations and Waves in Sunspots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Khomenko

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available A magnetic field modifies the properties of waves in a complex way. Significant advances have been made recently in our understanding of the physics of sunspot waves with the help of high-resolution observations, analytical theories, as well as numerical simulations. We review the current ideas in the field, providing the most coherent picture of sunspot oscillations as by present understanding.

  19. Transmission patterns of smallpox: Systematic review of natural outbreaks in Europe and North America since World War II

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Bhatnagar (Vibha); M.A. Stoto (Michael); S.C. Morton (Sally); R. Boer (Rob); S.A. Bozzette (Samuel)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Because smallpox (variola major) may be used as a biological weapon, we reviewed outbreaks in post-World War II Europe and North America in order to understand smallpox transmission patterns. Methods: A systematic review was used to identify papers from the National Library

  20. Revised Sunspot Numbers and the Effects on Understanding the Sunspot Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, D. H.

    2014-12-01

    While sunspot numbers provide only limited information about the sunspot cycle, they provide that information for at least twice as many sunspot cycles as any other direct solar observation. In particular, sunspot numbers are available before, during, and immediately after the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715). The instruments and methods used to count sunspots have changed over the last 400+ years. This leads to systematic changes in the sunspot number that can mask, or artificially introduce, characteristics of the sunspot cycle. The most widely used sunspot number is the International (Wolf/Zurich) sunspot number which is now calculated at the Solar Influences Data Center in Brussels, Belgium. These numbers extend back to 1749. The Group sunspot number extends back to the first telescopic observations of the Sun in 1610. There are well-known and significant differences between these two numbers where they overlap. Recent work has helped us to understand the sources of these differences and has led to proposed revisions in the sunspot numbers. Independent studies now support many of these revisions. These revised sunspot numbers suggest changes to our understanding of the sunspot cycle itself and to our understanding of its connection to climate change.

  1. Emergence of dengue virus 4 genotype II in Guangzhou, China, 2010: Survey and molecular epidemiology of one community outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Qin-Long

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The re-emergence of dengue virus 4 (DENV-4 has become a public health concern in South America, Southeast Asia and South Asia. However, it has not been known to have caused a local outbreak in China for the past 20 years. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the epidemiology of one local community outbreak caused by DENV-4 in Guangzhou city, China, in 2010; and to determine the molecular characteristics of the genotype II virus involved. Case presentations During September and October of 2010, one imported case, a Guangzhou resident who travelled back from Thailand, resulted in 18 secondary autochthonous cases in Guangzhou City, with an incidence rate of 5.53 per 10,000 residents. In indigenous cases, 14 serum samples tested positive for IgM against DENV and 7 for IgG from a total of 15 submitted serum samples, accompanied by 5 DENV-4 isolates. With identical envelope gene nucleotide sequences, the two isolates (D10168-GZ from the imported index case and Guangzhou 10660 from the first isolate in the autochthonous cases were grouped into DENV-4 genotype II after comparison to 32 previous DENV-4 isolates from GenBank that originated from different areas. Conclusions Based on epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses, the outbreak, which was absent for 20 years after the DENV-4 genotype I outbreak in 1990, was confirmed as DENV-4 genotype II and initially traced to the imported index case, a Guangzhou resident who travelled back from Thailand.

  2. MODELING THE CHROMOSPHERE OF A SUNSPOT AND THE QUIET SUN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avrett, E.; Tian, H. [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Landi, E. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Curdt, W. [Max Planck Institut für Sonnensystemfoschung, Goettingen (Germany); Wülser, J.-P. [Lockheed Martin Advanced Techonology Center (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Semiempirical atmospheric modeling attempts to match an observed spectrum by finding the temperature distribution and other physical parameters along the line of sight through the emitting region such that the calculated spectrum agrees with the observed one. In this paper we take the observed spectrum of a sunspot and the quiet Sun in the EUV wavelength range 668–1475 Å from the 2001 SUMER atlas of Curdt et al. to determine models of the two atmospheric regions, extending from the photosphere through the overlying chromosphere into the transition region. We solve the coupled statistical equilibrium and optically thick radiative transfer equations for a set of 32 atoms and ions. The atoms that are part of molecules are treated separately, and are excluded from the atomic abundances and atomic opacities. We compare the Mg ii k line profile observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph with the profiles calculated from the two models. The calculated profiles for the sunspot are substantially lower than the observed ones, based on the SUMER models. The only way we have found to raise the calculated Mg ii lines to agree with the observations is to introduce illumination of the sunspot from the surrounding active region.

  3. HELIOSEISMOLOGY OF A REALISTIC MAGNETOCONVECTIVE SUNSPOT SIMULATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D. C.; Birch, A. C.; Rempel, M.; Duvall, T. L. Jr.

    2012-01-01

    We compare helioseismic travel-time shifts measured from a realistic magnetoconvective sunspot simulation using both helioseismic holography and time-distance helioseismology, and measured from real sunspots observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find remarkable similarities in the travel-time shifts measured between the methodologies applied and between the simulated and real sunspots. Forward modeling of the travel-time shifts using either Born or ray approximation kernels and the sound-speed perturbations present in the simulation indicates major disagreements with the measured travel-time shifts. These findings do not substantially change with the application of a correction for the reduction of wave amplitudes in the simulated and real sunspots. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for new methods for inferring the subsurface structure of sunspots through helioseismic inversions.

  4. DYNAMICS IN SUNSPOT UMBRA AS SEEN IN NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE AND INTERFACE REGION IMAGING SPECTROGRAPH DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yurchyshyn, V.; Abramenko, V. [Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Kilcik, A. [Department of Space Science and Technologies, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya (Turkey)

    2015-01-10

    We analyze sunspot oscillations using Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) slit-jaw and spectral data and narrow-band chromospheric images from the New Solar Telescope (NST) for the main sunspot in NOAA AR 11836. We report that the difference between the shock arrival times as measured by the Mg II k 2796.35 Å and Si IV 1393.76 Å line formation levels changes during the observed period, and peak-to-peak delays may range from 40 s to zero. The intensity of chromospheric shocks also displays long-term (about 20 min) variations. NST's high spatial resolution Hα data allowed us to conclude that, in this sunspot, umbral flashes (UFs) appeared in the form of narrow bright lanes stretched along the light bridges and around clusters of umbral bright points. The time series also suggested that UFs preferred to appear on the sunspot-center side of light bridges, which may indicate the existence of a compact sub-photospheric driver of sunspot oscillations. The sunspot's umbra as seen in the IRIS chromospheric and transition region data appears bright above the locations of light bridges and the areas where the dark umbra is dotted with clusters of umbral dots. Co-spatial and co-temporal data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory showed that the same locations were associated with bright footpoints of coronal loops suggesting that the light bridges may play an important role in heating the coronal sunspot loops. Finally, the power spectra analysis showed that the intensity of chromospheric and transition region oscillations significantly vary across the umbra and with height, suggesting that umbral non-uniformities and the structure of sunspot magnetic fields may play a role in wave propagation and heating of umbral loops.

  5. First recorded outbreak of yellow fever in Kenya, 1992-1993. II. Entomologic investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiter, P; Cordellier, R; Ouma, J O; Cropp, C B; Savage, H M; Sanders, E J; Marfin, A A; Tukei, P M; Agata, N N; Gitau, L G; Rapuoda, B A; Gubler, D J

    1998-10-01

    The first recorded outbreak of yellow fever in Kenya occurred from mid-1992 through March 1993 in the south Kerio Valley, Rift Valley Province. We conducted entomologic studies in February-March 1993 to identify the likely vectors and determine the potential for transmission in the surrounding rural and urban areas. Mosquitoes were collected by landing capture and processed for virus isolation. Container surveys were conducted around human habitation. Transmission was mainly in woodland of varying density, at altitudes of 1,300-1,800 m. The abundance of Aedes africanus in this biotope, and two isolations of virus from pools of this species, suggest that it was the principal vector in the main period of the outbreak. A third isolate was made from a pool of Ae. keniensis, a little-known species that was collected in the same biotope. Other known yellow fever vectors that were collected in the arid parts of the valley may have been involved at an earlier stage of the epidemic. Vervet monkeys and baboons were present in the outbreak area. Peridomestic mosquito species were absent but abundant at urban sites outside the outbreak area. The entomologic and epidemiologic evidence indicate that this was a sylvatic outbreak in which human cases were directly linked to the epizootic and were independent of other human cases. The region of the Kerio Valley is probably subject to recurrent wandering epizootics of yellow fever, although previous episodes of scattered human infection have gone unrecorded. The risk that the disease could emerge as an urban problem in Kenya should not be ignored.

  6. The sunspot databases of the Debrecen Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranyi, Tünde; Gyori, Lajos; Ludmány, András

    2015-08-01

    We present the sunspot data bases and online tools available in the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory: the DPD (Debrecen Photoheliographic Data, 1974 -), the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data, 1996-2010), the HMIDD (SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data, HMIDD, 2010-), the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Data (GPR, 1874-1976) presented together with the Hungarian Historical Solar Drawings (HHSD, 1872-1919). These are the most detailed and reliable documentations of the sunspot activity in the relevant time intervals. They are very useful for studying sunspot group evolution on various time scales from hours to weeks. Time-dependent differences between the available long-term sunspot databases are investigated and cross-calibration factors are determined between them. This work has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2012-2015) under grant agreement No. 284461 (eHEROES).

  7. Self-affinity and nonextensivity of sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moret, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we study the time series of sunspots by using two different approaches, analyzing its self-affine behavior and studying its distribution. The long-range correlation exponent α has been calculated via Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and the power law vanishes to values greater than 11 years. On the other hand, the distribution of the sunspots obeys a q-exponential decay that suggests a non-extensive behavior. This observed characteristic seems to take an alternative interpretation of the sunspots dynamics. The present findings suggest us to propose a dynamic model of sunspots formation based on a nonlinear Fokker–Planck equation. Therefore its dynamic process follows the generalized thermostatistical formalism.

  8. Featured Image: Bright Dots in a Sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2018-03-01

    This image of a sunspot, located in in NOAA AR 12227, was captured in December 2014 by the 0.5-meter Solar Optical Telescope on board the Hinode spacecraft. This image was processed by a team of scientists led by Rahul Yadav (Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory Dewali, India) in order to examine the properties of umbral dots: transient, bright features observed in the umbral region (the central, darkest part) of a sunspot. By exploring these dots, Yadav and collaborators learned how their properties relate to the large-scale properties of the sunspots in which they form for instance, how do the number, intensities, or filling factors of dots relate to the size of a sunspots umbra? To find out more about the authors results, check out the article below.Sunspot in NOAA AR 11921. Left: umbralpenumbral boundary. Center: the isolated umbra from the sunspot. Right: The umbra with locations of umbral dots indicated by yellow plus signs. [Adapted from Yadav et al. 2018]CitationRahul Yadav et al 2018 ApJ 855 8. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaeba

  9. The Strongest Magnetic Field in Sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, J.; Sakurai, T.

    2017-12-01

    Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic fields on the solar surface. Generally, the strongest magnetic field in each sunspot is located in the dark umbra in most cases. A typical field strength in sunspots is around 3,000 G. On the other hand, some exceptions also have been found in complex sunspots with bright regions such as light bridges that separate opposite polarity umbrae, for instance with a strength of 4,300 G. However, the formation mechanism of such strong fields outside umbrae is still puzzling. Here we report an extremely strong magnetic field in a sunspot, which was located in a bright region sandwiched by two opposite-polarity umbrae. The strength is 6,250 G, which is the largest ever observed since the discovery of magnetic field on the Sun in 1908 by Hale. We obtained 31 scanned maps of the active region observed by Hinode/SOT/SP with a cadence of 3 hours over 5 days (February 1-6, 2014). Considering the spatial and temporal evolution of the vector magnetic field and the Doppler velocity in the bright region, we suggested that this strong field region was generated as a result of compression of one umbra pushed by the outward flow from the other umbra (Evershed flow), like the subduction of the Earth's crust in plate tectonics.

  10. On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2013-08-01

    We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

  11. Sunspot drawings handwritten character recognition method based on deep learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Sheng; Zeng, Xiangyun; Lin, Ganghua; Zhao, Cui; Feng, Yongli; Tao, Jinping; Zhu, Daoyuan; Xiong, Li

    2016-05-01

    High accuracy scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition is an issue of critical importance to analyze sunspots movement and store them in the database. This paper presents a robust deep learning method for scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition. The convolution neural network (CNN) is one algorithm of deep learning which is truly successful in training of multi-layer network structure. CNN is used to train recognition model of handwritten character images which are extracted from the original sunspot drawings. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method on sunspot drawings provided by Chinese Academy Yunnan Observatory and obtain the daily full-disc sunspot numbers and sunspot areas from the sunspot drawings. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a high recognition accurate rate.

  12. High Velocity Horizontal Motions at the Edge of Sunspot Penumbrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenaar-Daggett, Hermance J.; Shine, R.

    2010-05-01

    The outer edges of sunspot penumbrae have long been noted as a region of interesting dynamics including formation of MMFs, extensions and retractions of the penumbral tips, fast moving (2-3 km/s) bright features dubbed"streakers", and localized regions of high speed downflows interpreted as Evershed "sinks". Using 30s cadence movies of high spatial resolution G band and Ca II H images taken by the Hinode SOT/FPP instrument from 5-7 Jan 2007, we have been investigating the penumbra around a sunspot in AR 10933. In addition to the expected phenomena, we also see occasional small dark crescent-shaped features with high horizontal velocities (6.5 km/s) in G band movies. These appear to be emitted from penumbral tips. They travel about 1.5 Mm developing a bright wake that evolves into a slower moving (1-2 km/s) bright feature. In some cases, there may be an earlier outward propagating disturbance within the penumbra. We have also analyzed available Fe 6302 Stokes V images to obtain information on the magnetic field. Although only lower resolution 6302 images made with a slower cadence are available for these particular data sets, we can establish that the features have the opposite magnetic polarity of the sunspot. This observation may be in agreement with simulations showing that a horizontal flux tube develops crests that move outward with a velocity as large as 10 km/s. This work was supported by NASA contract NNM07AA01C.

  13. Planetary tides during the Maunder sunspot minimum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smythe, C.M.; Eddy, J.A.

    1977-01-01

    Sun-centered planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials are here constructed for the AD1645 to 1715 period of sunspot absence, referred to as the 'Maunder Minimum'. These are found to be effectively indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and power spectra of tidal potential in the present era of a well established 11 year sunspot cycle. This places a new and difficult restraint on any tidal theory of sunspot formation. Problems arise in any direct gravitational theory due to the apparently insufficient forces and tidal heights involved. Proponents of the tidal hypothesis usually revert to trigger mechanisms, which are difficult to criticise or test by observation. Any tidal theory rests on the evidence of continued sunspot periodicity and the substantiation of a prolonged period of solar anomaly in the historical past. The 'Maunder Minimum' was the most drastic change in the behaviour of solar activity in the last 300 years; sunspots virtually disappeared for a 70 year period and the 11 year cycle was probably absent. During that time, however, the nine planets were all in their orbits, and planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials were indistinguishable from those of the present era, in which the 11 year cycle is well established. This provides good evidence against the tidal theory. The pattern of planetary tidal forces during the Maunder Minimum was reconstructed to investigate the possibility that the multiple planet forces somehow fortuitously cancelled at the time, that is that the positions of the slower moving planets in the 17th and early 18th centuries were such that conjunctions and tidal potentials were at the time reduced in number and force. There was no striking dissimilarity between the time of the Maunder Minimum and any period investigated. The failure of planetary conjunction patterns to reflect the drastic drop in sunspots during the Maunder Minimum casts doubt on the tidal theory of solar activity, but a more quantitative test

  14. A model of a sunspot chromosphere based on OSO 8 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lites, B. W.; Skumanich, A.

    1982-01-01

    OSO 8 spectrometer observations of the H I, Mg II, and Ca II resonance lines of a large quiet sunspot during November 16-17, 1975, along with a C IV line of that event obtained by a ground-based spectrometer, are analyzed together with near-simultaneous ground-based Stokes measurements to yield an umbral chromosphere and transition region model. Features of this model include a chromosphere that is effectively thin in the resonance lines of H I and Mg II, while being saturated in Ca II, and an upper chromospheric structure similar to that of quiet-sun models. The similarity of the upper chromosphere of the sunspot umbra to the quiet-sun chromosphere suggests that the intense magnetic field plays only a passive role in the chromospheric heating mechanism, and the observations cited indicate that solar-type stars with large areas of ordered magnetic flux would not necessarily exhibit extremely active chromosphere.

  15. Exploitation of the Vistula River from earliest times to the outbreak of World War II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Marcin Duchnowski

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the earliest times, the Vistula River has been an artery used for movement of people, commodities and cultures. The settlement network that began to develop along it constituted the foundation of the emerging Polish state in the Early Middle Ages. In the 13th century, the Teutonic Knights appeared downriver. After the outbreak of Prussia and Gdańsk Pomerania, they formed a state with a powerful economy and army. During their reign along the Vistula River (Wisła, many castles and fortified towns guarding its particular sections were erected. After the end of the Thirteen Years’ War (1466, almost the whole river with its tributaries was incorporated within the limits of Poland or countries recognising its authority. From the middle of the 16th century to the mid-17th century, the Vistula River performed the role of the main Polish trade route for many products sent to Western European countries through Gdańsk. The city was then experiencing the apogee of its magnificence. Cereals were the most important commodity back then. The gentry – the producers – and many towns intermediating in trade were growing rich thanks to the good economic situation. Then, the rich folklore of raftsmen immortalised by poets and pictured by painters came into being. In the 18th century, changes in agriculture in Western European countries and increasing competition caused depression in the export of Polish cereals. In addition, the partitions of Poland affected its balance. Because of this, the Vistula River flowed through three states: Austria, Russia and Prussia. All of them conducted separate policies concerning the river, which caused its decline as an important European water artery. In the 19th century, it remained unregulated. Germans performed the most works in the lower course of the river, while Russians did the least in its middle course. In the period of Second Polish Republic, the revived state had new needs, thus river development was not

  16. Diode laser heterodyne observations of silicon monoxide in sunspots - A test of three sunspot models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenar, D. A.; Deming, D.; Jennings, D. E.; Kostiuk, T.; Mumma, M. J.

    1983-01-01

    Absorption features from the 8 micron SiO fundamental (upsilon = 1-0) and hot bands (upsilon = 2-1) have been observed in sunspots at sub-Doppler resolution using a ground-based tunable diode laser heterodyne spectrometer. The observed line widths suggest an upper limit of 0.5 km/s for the microturbulent velocity in sunspot umbrae. Since the silicon monoxide abundance is very sensitive to sunspot temperature, the measured equivalent widths permit an unambiguous determination of the temperature-pressure relation in the upper layers of the umbral atmosphere. In the region of SiO line formation (log P sub g = 3.0-4.5), the results support the sunspot model suggested by Stellmacher and Wiehr (1970).

  17. [An epidemiological investigation on a food-born outbreak of noroviru caused by Sydney 2012 G II.4 strain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wen-Feng; Xie, Hua-Ping; Liu, Yu-Fei; Yuan, Jun; Xiao, Xin-Cai; Ding, Peng; Chen, Chun; Zhang, Du; Chen, Jian-Dong; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Geng, Jin-Mei; Lin, Dong-Ming; Lian, Gui-Xiong; Yang, Zhi-Cong

    2013-08-01

    To identify the source of infection, route of transmission and risk factors related to a cluster of acute gastroenteritis cases in a university of Guangzhou. Cases were identified according to the definition. Descriptive epidemiological approaches and case-control study designs were employed in the analysis. All the samples were tested for norovirus by RT-PCR. Positive samples were subjected to both nucleotide sequence and homology analysis. A total of 141 cases related to norovirus gastroenteritis were identified in January 8 to 21, 2013, with the attack rate as 8.5 per thousand (141/16,600). The peak in morbidity was seen on January 8 to 9. No clustering was found in different classes or dormitories. Results from the case-control study revealed that early cases were infected in Restaurant A (OR = 3.46, 95% CI: 1.07-11.16) and the cold shredded chicken set meal (OR = 17.82, 95% CI: 4.46-78.17) served at lunch (OR = 4.34, 95% CI: 1.18 -17.37) on January 7 was under suspicion. A total of 266 samples, including rectal swabs from the patients and kitchen wokers, leftover food and environmental swabs, were collected. Twenty-one samples (collected from 17 persons) were positive for norovirus by RT-PCR. About 29.6% (8/27) of the kitchen workers in the Restaurant A were tested positive for the virus. The pathogen was identified as the new norovirus genotype II.4 variant, termed Sydney 2012. The virus strains isolated from the patients among student and staff and the kitchen workers were 100% identical in their nucleotide sequence. This was the first reported acute gastroenteritis outbreak caused by the new norovirus genotype II.4 variant, Sydney 2012, which showed that the food was contaminated by the asymptomatic kitchen workers who carried the virus.

  18. On the structure of small sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringnes, T.S.

    1984-01-01

    The smallest and most short-lived sunspots are decribed differently at the observatories in Zuerich and Greenwich. These differences which seem to originate both from the observing procedure and from the definitions of penumbra and umbra adopted, are further discussed

  19. Nature's third cycle a story of sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

    2015-01-01

    The cycle of day and night and the cycle of seasons are two familiar natural cycles around which many human activities are organized. But is there a third natural cycle of importance for us humans? On 13 March 1989, six million people in Canada went without electricity for many hours: a large explosion on the sun was discovered as the cause of this blackout. Such explosions occur above sunspots, dark features on the surface of the Sun that have been observed through telescopes since the time of Galileo. The number of sunspots has been found to wax and wane over a period of 11 years. Although this cycle was discovered less than two centuries ago, it is becoming increasingly important for us as human society becomes more dependent on technology. For nearly a century after its discovery, the cause of the sunspot cycle remained completely shrouded in mystery. The 1908 discovery of strong magnetic fields in sunspots made it clear that the 11-year cycle is the magnetic cycle of the sun. It is only during the last ...

  20. Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Galileo Galilei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vokhmyanin, M. V.; Zolotova, N. V.

    2018-02-01

    Sunspot records in the seventeenth century provide important information on the solar activity before the Maunder minimum, yielding reliable sunspot indices and the solar butterfly diagram. Galilei's letters to Cardinal Francesco Barberini and Marcus Welser contain daily solar observations on 3 - 11 May, 2 June - 8 July, and 19 - 21 August 1612. These historical archives do not provide the time of observation, which results in uncertainty in the sunspot coordinates. To obtain them, we present a method that minimizes the discrepancy between the sunspot latitudes. We provide areas and heliographic coordinates of 82 sunspot groups. In contrast to Sheiner's butterfly diagram, we found only one sunspot group near the Equator. This provides a higher reliability of Galilei's drawings. Large sunspot groups are found to emerge at the same longitude in the northern hemisphere from 3 May to 21 August, which indicates an active longitude.

  1. Sunspot splitting triggering an eruptive flare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, Rohan E.; Puschmann, Klaus G.; Kliem, Bernhard; Balthasar, Horst; Denker, Carsten

    2014-02-01

    Aims: We investigate how the splitting of the leading sunspot and associated flux emergence and cancellation in active region NOAA 11515 caused an eruptive M5.6 flare on 2012 July 2. Methods: Continuum intensity, line-of-sight magnetogram, and dopplergram data of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager were employed to analyse the photospheric evolution. Filtergrams in Hα and He I 10830 Å of the Chromospheric Telescope at the Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, track the evolution of the flare. The corresponding coronal conditions were derived from 171 Å and 304 Å images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. Local correlation tracking was utilized to determine shear flows. Results: Emerging flux formed a neutral line ahead of the leading sunspot and new satellite spots. The sunspot splitting caused a long-lasting flow towards this neutral line, where a filament formed. Further flux emergence, partly of mixed polarity, as well as episodes of flux cancellation occurred repeatedly at the neutral line. Following a nearby C-class precursor flare with signs of interaction with the filament, the filament erupted nearly simultaneously with the onset of the M5.6 flare and evolved into a coronal mass ejection. The sunspot stretched without forming a light bridge, splitting unusually fast (within about a day, complete ≈6 h after the eruption) in two nearly equal parts. The front part separated strongly from the active region to approach the neighbouring active region where all its coronal magnetic connections were rooted. It also rotated rapidly (by 4.9° h-1) and caused significant shear flows at its edge. Conclusions: The eruption resulted from a complex sequence of processes in the (sub-)photosphere and corona. The persistent flows towards the neutral line likely caused the formation of a flux rope that held the filament. These flows, their associated flux cancellation, the emerging flux, and the precursor flare all contributed to the destabilization of the flux rope. We

  2. Vertical gradients of sunspot magnetic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagyard, M. J.; Teuber, D.; West, E. A.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Henze, W., Jr.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, M.; Hyder, C. L.; Woodgate, B. E.

    1983-01-01

    The results of a Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) guest investigation to determine the vertical gradients of sunspot magnetic fields for the first time from coordinated observations of photospheric and transition-region fields are described. Descriptions are given of both the photospheric vector field of a sunspot, derived from observations using the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograph, and of the line-of-sight component in the transition region, obtained from the SMM Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter instrument. On the basis of these data, vertical gradients of the line-of-sight magnetic field component are calculated using three methods. It is found that the vertical gradient of Bz is lower than values from previous studies and that the transition-region field occurs at a height of approximately 4000-6000 km above the photosphere.

  3. Probing sunspots with two-skip time-distance helioseismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.; Cally, Paul S.; Przybylski, Damien; Nagashima, Kaori; Gizon, Laurent

    2018-06-01

    Context. Previous helioseismology of sunspots has been sensitive to both the structural and magnetic aspects of sunspot structure. Aims: We aim to develop a technique that is insensitive to the magnetic component so the two aspects can be more readily separated. Methods: We study waves reflected almost vertically from the underside of a sunspot. Time-distance helioseismology was used to measure travel times for the waves. Ray theory and a detailed sunspot model were used to calculate travel times for comparison. Results: It is shown that these large distance waves are insensitive to the magnetic field in the sunspot. The largest travel time differences for any solar phenomena are observed. Conclusions: With sufficient modeling effort, these should lead to better understanding of sunspot structure.

  4. Sunspots During the Maunder Minimum from Machina Coelestis by Hevelius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, V. M. S.; Álvarez, J. Villalba; Vaquero, J. M.

    2015-10-01

    We revisited the sunspot observations published by Johannes Hevelius in his book Machina Coelestis (1679) corresponding to the period of 1653 - 1675 (just in the middle of the Maunder Minimum). We show detailed translations of the original Latin texts describing the sunspot records and provide the general context of these sunspot observations. From this source, we present an estimate of the annual values of the group sunspot number based only on the records that explicitly inform us of the presence or absence of sunspots. Although we obtain very low values of the group sunspot number, in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity, these values are significantly higher in general than the values provided by Hoyt and Schatten ( Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998) for the same period.

  5. An outbreak of feline infectious peritonitis in a Taiwanese shelter: epidemiologic and molecular evidence for horizontal transmission of a novel type II feline coronavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying-Ting; Su, Bi-Ling; Hsieh, Li-En; Chueh, Ling-Ling

    2013-07-17

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is a fatal disease caused by feline coronavirus (FCoV) infection. FCoV can be divided into serotypes I and II. The virus that causes FIP (FIPV) is believed to occur sporadically and spread infrequently from cat to cat. Recently, an FIP outbreak from an animal shelter was confirmed in Taiwan. FCoV from all the cats in this shelter were analyzed to determine the epidemiology of this outbreak. Thirteen of 46 (28.2%) cats with typical signs of FIP were identified. Among them, seven cats were confirmed by necropsy and/or histopathological examinations. Despite the fact that more than one FCoV was identified in this multi-cat environment, the eight FIP cats were invariably found to be infected with a type II FCoV. Sequence analysis revealed that the type II FIPV detected from fecal samples, body effusions and granulomatous tissue homogenates from the cats that succumbed to FIP all harbored an identical recombination site in their S gene. Two of the cats that succumbed to FIP were found to harbor an identical nonsense mutation in the 3c gene. Fecal shedding of this type II virus in the effusive form of FIP can be detected up to six days before death. Taken together, our data demonstrate that horizontal transmission of FIPV is possible and that FIP cats can pose a potential risk to other cats living in the same environment.

  6. Investigation and control of a Plasmodium falciparum malaria outbreak in Shan Special Region II of Myanmar along the China-Myanmar Border from June to December 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui; Xu, Jian-Wei; Yang, Heng-Lin; Li, Mei; Sun, Cheng-De; Yin, Yi-Jie; Zheng, Zhi-Liang; Zhang, Guang-Yun; Yu, Ai-Shui; Yang, Yong-Hui; Li, Chun-Hui; Ai, Shui

    2016-04-25

    From 2007 to 2013, intensive control measures reduced malaria burden by 90 % along the China-Myanmar border. However, despite these measures a P. falciparum malaria outbreak was reported in the Shan Special Region II of Myanmar in June of 2014. Epidemiological, parasitological and entomological investigations were performed. Dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (DAPQ) was immediately administered to treat parasite positive individuals. Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS) with insecticides and behavior change communication (BCC) were also provided for outbreak control. An embedded efficacy study was conducted evaluating DP. Molecular genotyping via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed on the Kelch gene on chromosome 13. All infections were identified as Plasmodium falciparum by RDT and microscopy. Two fatalities resulted from the outbreak. The attack rate was 72.8 % (67/92) and the incidence density rate was 14.2 per 100 person-weeks. The positive rate of rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was 72.2 % (65/90) and microscopically-determine parasite rate 42.2 % (38/90). Adjusted odds ratio (OR) of multivariate logistic regression analysis for aged Myanmar border, especially among special populations, needs further collaboration between China, Myanmar and international societies.

  7. Tracking the Magnetic Flux in and Around Sunspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheeley, N. R. Jr.; Stauffer, J. R.; Thomassie, J. C.; Warren, H. P., E-mail: solsheeley@verizon.net, E-mail: harry.warren@nrl.navy.mil [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375-5352 (United States)

    2017-02-10

    We have developed a procedure for tracking sunspots observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and for making curvature-corrected space/time maps of the associated line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity. We apply this procedure to 36 sunspots, each observed continuously for nine days around its central meridian passage time, and find that the proper motions separate into two distinct components depending on their speeds. Fast (∼3–5 km s{sup −1}) motions, comparable to Evershed flows, are produced by weak vertical fluctuations of the horizontal canopy field and recur on a timescale of 12–20 min. Slow (∼0.3–0.5 km s{sup −1}) motions diverge from a sunspot-centered ring whose location depends on the size of the sunspot, occurring in the mid-penumbra for large sunspots and at the outer edge of the penumbra for small sunspots. The slow ingoing features are contracting spokes of a quasi-vertical field of umbral polarity. These inflows disappear when the sunspot loses its penumbra, and may be related to inward-moving penumbral grain. The slow outgoing features may have either polarity depending on whether they originate from quasi-vertical fields of umbral polarity or from the outer edge of the canopy. When a sunspot decays, the penumbra and canopy disappear, and the moat becomes filled with slow outflows of umbral polarity. We apply our procedure to decaying sunspots, to long-lived sunspots, and to numerical simulations of a long-lived sunspot by Rempel.

  8. Towards the automatic detection and analysis of sunspot rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Daniel S.; Walker, Andrew P.

    2016-10-01

    Torsional rotation of sunspots have been noted by many authors over the past century. Sunspots have been observed to rotate up to the order of 200 degrees over 8-10 days, and these have often been linked with eruptive behaviour such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, most studies in the literature are case studies or small-number studies which suffer from selection bias. In order to better understand sunspot rotation and its impact on the corona, unbiased large-sample statistical studies are required (including both rotating and non-rotating sunspots). While this can be done manually, a better approach is to automate the detection and analysis of rotating sunspots using robust methods with well characterised uncertainties. The SDO/HMI instrument provide long-duration, high-resolution and high-cadence continuum observations suitable for extracting a large number of examples of rotating sunspots. This presentation will outline the analysis of SDI/HMI data to determine the rotation (and non-rotation) profiles of sunspots for the complete duration of their transit across the solar disk, along with how this can be extended to automatically identify sunspots and initiate their analysis.

  9. The EUV Spectrum of Sunspot Plumes Observed by SUMER on ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tribpo

    Abstract. We present results from sunspot observations obtained by. SUMER on SOHO. In sunspot plumes the EUV spectrum differs from the quiet Sun; continua are observed with different slopes and intensities; emission lines from molecular hydrogen and many unidentified species indicate unique plasma conditions ...

  10. Fractal Dimension and Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.-S. Kim

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter describing the characteristics of irregular time series. In this study, we use this parameter to analyze the irregular aspects of solar activity and to predict the maximum sunspot number in the following solar cycle by examining time series of the sunspot number. For this, we considered the daily sunspot number since 1850 from SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center and then estimated cycle variation of the fractal dimension by using Higuchi's method. We examined the relationship between this fractal dimension and the maximum monthly sunspot number in each solar cycle. As a result, we found that there is a strong inverse relationship between the fractal dimension and the maximum monthly sunspot number. By using this relation we predicted the maximum sunspot number in the solar cycle from the fractal dimension of the sunspot numbers during the solar activity increasing phase. The successful prediction is proven by a good correlation (r=0.89 between the observed and predicted maximum sunspot numbers in the solar cycles.

  11. Sunspot Modeling: From Simplified Models to Radiative MHD Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Schlichenmaier

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We review our current understanding of sunspots from the scales of their fine structure to their large scale (global structure including the processes of their formation and decay. Recently, sunspot models have undergone a dramatic change. In the past, several aspects of sunspot structure have been addressed by static MHD models with parametrized energy transport. Models of sunspot fine structure have been relying heavily on strong assumptions about flow and field geometry (e.g., flux-tubes, "gaps", convective rolls, which were motivated in part by the observed filamentary structure of penumbrae or the necessity of explaining the substantial energy transport required to maintain the penumbral brightness. However, none of these models could self-consistently explain all aspects of penumbral structure (energy transport, filamentation, Evershed flow. In recent years, 3D radiative MHD simulations have been advanced dramatically to the point at which models of complete sunspots with sufficient resolution to capture sunspot fine structure are feasible. Here overturning convection is the central element responsible for energy transport, filamentation leading to fine-structure and the driving of strong outflows. On the larger scale these models are also in the progress of addressing the subsurface structure of sunspots as well as sunspot formation. With this shift in modeling capabilities and the recent advances in high resolution observations, the future research will be guided by comparing observation and theory.

  12. An essay on sunspots and solar flares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akasofu, S.-I.

    1984-01-01

    The presently prevailing theories of sunspots and solar flares rely on the hypothetical presence of magnetic flux tubes beneath the photosphere and the two subsequent hypotheses, their emergence above the photosphere and explosive magnetic reconnection, converting magnetic energy carried by the flux tubes for solar flare energy. In this paper, attention is paid to the fact that there are large-scale magnetic fields which divide the photosphere into positive and negative (line-of-sight) polarity regions and that they are likely to be more fundamental than sunspot fields, as emphasized most recently by McIntosh. A new phenomenological model of the sunspot pair formation is then constructed by considering an amplification process of these large-scale fields near their boundaries by shear flows, including localized vortex motions. The amplification results from a dynamo process associated with such vortex flows and the associated convergence flow in the large-scale fields. This dynamo process generates also some of the familiar ''force-free'' fields or the ''sheared'' magnetic fields in which the magnetic field-aligned currents are essential. Upward field-aligned currents generated by the dynamo process are carried by downward streaming electrons which are expected to be accelerated by an electric potential structure; a similar structure is responsible for accelerating auroral electrons in the magnetosphere. Depending on the magnetic field configuration and the shear flows, the current-carrying electrons precipitate into different geometrical patterns, causing circular flares, umbral flares, two-ribbon flares, etc. Thus, it is suggested that ''low temperature flares'' are directly driven by the photospheric dynamo process. (author)

  13. Solar rotation and meridional motions derived from sunspot groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuominen, J.; Tuominen, I.; Kyroelaeinen, J.

    1982-01-01

    Latitudinal and longitudinal motions of sunspot groups have been studied using the positions of recurrent sunspot groups of 103 years published by Greenwich observatory. In order to avoid any limb effects, only positions close to the central meridian have been used. The data were divided into two parts: those belonging to the years around sunspot maxima and those belonging to the years around sunspot minima. Using several different criteria it was ascertained that sunspot groups show meridional motions and that their drift curves as a function of latitude are different around maxima and around minima. In addition, also the angular velocity, as a function of latitude, was found to be different around maxima and minima. (Auth.)

  14. Iwahashi Zenbei's Sunspot Drawings in 1793 in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Toriumi, Shin; Shibata, Kazunari

    2018-01-01

    Three Japanese sunspot drawings associated with Iwahashi Zenbei (1756 - 1811) are shown here from contemporary manuscripts and woodprint documents with the relevant texts. We reveal the observational date of one of the drawings to be 26 August 1793, and the overall observations lasted for over a year. Moreover, we identify the observational site for the dated drawing as Fushimi in Japan. We then compare Zenbei's observations with the group sunspot number and the raw group count from the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) to reveal the context of the data, and we conclude that these drawings fill gaps in our understanding that are due to the fragmental sunspot observations around 1793. These drawings are important as a clue to evaluate astronomical knowledge of contemporary Japan in the late eighteenth century and are valuable as a non-European observation, considering that most sunspot observations up to the middle of the nineteenth century are from Europe.

  15. The chromosphere above a δ-sunspot in the presence of fan-shaped jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robustini, Carolina; Leenaarts, Jorrit; de la Cruz Rodríguez, Jaime

    2018-01-01

    Context. Delta-sunspots are known to be favourable locations for fast and energetic events like flares and coronal mass ejections. The photosphere of this sunspot type has been thoroughly investigated in the past three decades. The atmospheric conditions in the chromosphere are not as well known, however. Aims: This study is focused on the chromosphere of a δ-sunspot that harbours a series of fan-shaped jets in its penumbra. The aim of this study is to establish the magnetic field topology and the temperature distribution in the presence of jets in the photosphere and the chromosphere. Methods: We use data from the Swedish 1m Solar Telescope (SST) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We invert the spectropolarimetric Fe I 6302 Å and Ca II 8542 Å data from the SST using the non-LTE inversion code NICOLE to estimate the magnetic field configuration, temperature, and velocity structure in the chromosphere. Results: A loop-like magnetic structure is observed to emerge in the penumbra of the sunspot. The jets are launched from this structure. Magnetic reconnection between this emerging field and the pre-existing vertical field is suggested by hot plasma patches on the interface between the two fields. The height at which the reconnection takes place is located between log τ500 = -2 and log τ500 = -3. The magnetic field vector and the atmospheric temperature maps show a stationary configuration during the whole observation. Movies associated to Figs. 3-5 are available at http://www.aanda.org

  16. Photometric measurements of solar irradiance variations due to sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, G.A.; Herzog, A.D.; Laico, D.E.; Lawrence, J.K.; Templer, M.S.

    1989-01-01

    A photometric telescope constructed to obtain photometric sunspot areas and deficits on a daily basis is described. Data from this Cartesian full disk telescope (CFDT) are analyzed with attention given to the period between June 4 and June 17, 1985 because of the availability of overlapping sunspot area and irradiance deficit data from high-resolution digital spectroheliograms made with the San Fernando Observatory 28 cm vacuum solar telescope and spectroheliograph. The CFDT sunspot deficits suggest a substantial irradiance contribution from faculae and active region plage. 23 refs

  17. Sunspot Light Walls Suppressed by Nearby Brightenings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Shuhong; Zhang, Jun; Hou, Yijun; Li, Xiaohong [CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Erdélyi, Robertus [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Yan, Limei, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China)

    2017-07-01

    Light walls, as ensembles of oscillating bright structures rooted in sunspot light bridges, have not been well studied, although they are important for understanding sunspot properties. Using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and Solar Dynamics Observatory observations, here we study the evolution of two oscillating light walls each within its own active region (AR). The emission of each light wall decays greatly after the appearance of adjacent brightenings. For the first light wall, rooted within AR 12565, the average height, amplitude, and oscillation period significantly decrease from 3.5 Mm, 1.7 Mm, and 8.5 minutes to 1.6 Mm, 0.4 Mm, and 3.0 minutes, respectively. For the second light wall, rooted within AR 12597, the mean height, amplitude, and oscillation period of the light wall decrease from 2.1 Mm, 0.5 Mm, and 3.0 minutes to 1.5 Mm, 0.2 Mm, and 2.1 minutes, respectively. Particularly, a part of the second light wall even becomes invisible after the influence of a nearby brightening. These results reveal that the light walls are suppressed by nearby brightenings. Considering the complex magnetic topology in light bridges, we conjecture that the fading of light walls may be caused by a drop in the magnetic pressure, where the flux is canceled by magnetic reconnection at the site of the nearby brightening. Another hypothesis is that the wall fading is due to the suppression of driver source ( p -mode oscillation), resulting from the nearby avalanche of downward particles along reconnected brightening loops.

  18. Chromospheric Plasma Ejections in a Light Bridge of a Sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Donguk; Chae, Jongchul; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Lim, Eun-Kyung; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Yang, Heesu; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Kwak, Hannah

    2017-02-01

    It is well-known that light bridges (LBs) inside a sunspot produce small-scale plasma ejections and transient brightenings in the chromosphere, but the nature and origin of such phenomena are still unclear. Utilizing the high-spatial and high-temporal resolution spectral data taken with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph and the TiO 7057 Å broadband filter images installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report arcsecond-scale chromospheric plasma ejections (1.″7) inside a LB. Interestingly, the ejections are found to be a manifestation of upwardly propagating shock waves as evidenced by the sawtooth patterns seen in the temporal-spectral plots of the Ca II 8542 Å and Hα intensities. We also found a fine-scale photospheric pattern (1″) diverging with a speed of about 2 km s-1 two minutes before the plasma ejections, which seems to be a manifestation of magnetic flux emergence. As a response to the plasma ejections, the corona displayed small-scale transient brightenings. Based on our findings, we suggest that the shock waves can be excited by the local disturbance caused by magnetic reconnection between the emerging flux inside the LB and the adjacent umbral magnetic field. The disturbance generates slow-mode waves, which soon develop into shock waves, and manifest themselves as the arcsecond-scale plasma ejections. It also appears that the dissipation of mechanical energy in the shock waves can heat the local corona.

  19. Sunspots Resource--From Ancient Cultures to Modern Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, N.

    2000-10-01

    Sunspots is a web-based lesson that was developed by the Science Education Gateway (SEGway) program with participants from the Exploratorium, a well known science Museum in San Francisco, UC Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, and teachers from several California schools. This space science resource allows 8-12 grade students to explore the nature of sunspots and the history of solar physics in its effort to understand their nature. Interviews with solar physicists and archeo-astronomers, historic images, cutting-edge NASA images, movies, and research results, as well as a student-centered sunspot research activity using NASA space science data defines this lesson. The sunspot resource is aligned with the NCTM and National Science Education Standards. It emphasizes inquiry-based methods and mathematical exercises through measurement, graphic data representation, analysis of NASA data, lastly, interpreting results and drawing conclusions. These resources have been successfully classroom tested in 4 middle schools in the San Francisco Unified School District as part of the 3-week Summer School Science curricula. Lessons learned from the Summer School 1999 will be explained. This resource includes teacher-friendly lesson plans, space science background material and student worksheets. There will be Sunspots lesson CD-ROM and printed version of the relevant classroom-ready materials and a teacher resource booklet available. Sunspot resource is brought to you by, The Science Education Gateway - SEGway - Project, and the HESSI satellite and NASA's Office of Space Science Sun-Earth Connection Education Forum.

  20. Latitudinal migration of sunspots based on the ESAI database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Juan; Li, Fu-Yu; Feng, Wen

    2018-01-01

    The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator, which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone, is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation. The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past. In this study, ESAI’s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear. It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function. In addition, the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses, providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models. Indeed, the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period, and it is located at higher latitudinal position, giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.

  1. INTERFERENCE FRINGES OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES AROUND SUNSPOTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chou, Dean-Yi; Zhao Hui; Yang, Ming-Hsu; Liang, Zhi-Chao, E-mail: chou@phys.nthu.edu.tw [Physics Department, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

    2012-10-20

    Solar acoustic waves are scattered by a sunspot due to the interaction between the acoustic waves and the sunspot. The sunspot, excited by the incident wave, generates the scattered wave. The scattered wave is added to the incident wave to form the total wave around the sunspot. The interference fringes between the scattered wave and the incident wave are visible in the intensity of the total wave because the coherent time of the incident wave is of the order of a wave period. The strength of the interference fringes anti-correlates with the width of temporal spectra of the incident wave. The separation between neighboring fringes increases with the incident wavelength and the sunspot size. The strength of the fringes increases with the radial order n of the incident wave from n = 0 to n = 2, and then decreases from n = 2 to n = 5. The interference fringes play a role analogous to holograms in optics. This study suggests the feasibility of using the interference fringes to reconstruct the scattered wavefields of the sunspot, although the quality of the reconstructed wavefields is sensitive to the noise and errors in the interference fringes.

  2. Interactions between nested sunspots. 1: The formation and breakup of a delta-type sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaizauskas, V.; Harvey, K. L.; Proulx, M.

    1994-01-01

    We investigate a nest of sunspots in which three ordinary bipolar pairs of sunspots are aligned collinearly. The usual spreading action of the growing regions brings two spots of leading polarity together (p-p collision) and forces the leading and trailing spots of the two interior regions to overlap inot a single penumbra (p-f collision), thus forming a delta-spot. We examine digitally processed images from the Ottawa River Solar Observatory of two related events inside the delta-spot 5 days after the p-f collision begins: the violent disruption of the f-umbra, and the formation in less than a day of an hydrogen-alpha filament. The evolutionary changes in shape, area, relative motions, and brightness that we measure for each spot in the elongated nest are more compatible with Parker's (1979a) hypothesis of a sunspot as a cluster of flux tubes held together by downdrafts than with the notion of a sunspot as a monolithic plug of magnetic flux. From chromospheric developments over the delta-spot, we show that a shearing motion along a polarity inversion is more effective than convergence for creating a chromospheric filament. We invoke the release of an instability, triggered by a sequence of processes lasting 1 day or more, to explain the disruption of the f-umbra in this delta-spot. We show that the sequence is initiated when the colliding p-f umbrae reach a critical separation around 3200 +/- 200 km. We present a descriptive model in which the reconnected magnetic fields block vertical transport of convective heat flux just beneath the photosphere. We observe the formation of an unusual type of penumbra adjacent to the f-polarity portion of this delta-spot just before its disruption. A tangential penumbral band grows out of disordered matter connected to the f-umbra. We present this as evidence for the extrusion of umbral magnetic flux by thermal plumes rising through a loosely bound umbra.

  3. SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION OF THERMAL AND MAGNETIC ANOMALIES IN SUNSPOT UMBRAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindsey, C.; Cally, P. S.; Rempel, M.

    2010-01-01

    Efforts to model sunspots based on helioseismic signatures need to discriminate between the effects of (1) a strong magnetic field that introduces time-irreversible, vantage-dependent phase shifts, apparently connected to fast- and slow-mode coupling and wave absorption and (2) a thermal anomaly that includes cool gas extending an indefinite depth beneath the photosphere. Helioseismic observations of sunspots show travel times considerably reduced with respect to equivalent quiet-Sun signatures. Simulations by Moradi and Cally of waves skipping across sunspots with photospheric magnetic fields of order 3 kG show travel times that respond strongly to the magnetic field and relatively weakly to the thermal anomaly by itself. We note that waves propagating vertically in a vertical magnetic field are relatively insensitive to the magnetic field, while remaining highly responsive to the attendant thermal anomaly. Travel-time measurements for waves with large skip distances into the centers of axially symmetric sunspots are therefore a crucial resource for discrimination of the thermal anomaly beneath sunspot umbrae from the magnetic anomaly. One-dimensional models of sunspot umbrae based on compressible-radiative-magnetic-convective simulations such as by Rempel et al. can be fashioned to fit observed helioseismic travel-time spectra in the centers of sunspot umbrae. These models are based on cooling of the upper 2-4 Mm of the umbral subphotosphere with no significant anomaly beneath 4.5 Mm. The travel-time reductions characteristic of these models are primarily a consequence of a Wilson depression resulting from a strong downward buoyancy of the cooled umbral medium.

  4. Umbral oscillations as a probe of sunspot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelatif, T.E.H.

    1985-01-01

    The interaction of the solar five-minute oscillations with a sunspot is thoroughly explored, both on observational and theoretical grounds. Simple theoretical models are developed in order to understand the observations of umbral oscillations. Observations made at the National Solar Observatory detected both the three-minute and five-minute umbral oscillations at photospheric heights. The three-minute oscillations were found to have a kinetic energy density six times higher in the photosphere than in the chromosphere and to be concentrated in the central part of the umbra, supporting the photospheric resonance theory for the three-minute umbral oscillations. The five-minute oscillations are attenuated in the umbra, which appears to act as a filter in selecting some of the peaks in the power spectrum of five-minute oscillations in the surrounding photosphere. The k-omega power spectrum of the umbral oscillations shows a shift of power to longer wavelengths. Theoretical models of the transmission of acoustic waves into a magnetic region explain both observed effects

  5. Selection tool for foodborne norovirus outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Linda P B; Kroneman, Annelies; van Duynhoven, Yvonne; Boshuizen, Hendriek; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Koopmans, Marion

    2009-01-01

    Detection of pathogens in the food chain is limited mainly to bacteria, and the globalization of the food industry enables international viral foodborne outbreaks to occur. Outbreaks from 2002 through 2006 recorded in a European norovirus surveillance database were investigated for virologic and epidemiologic indicators of food relatedness. The resulting validated multivariate logistic regression model comparing foodborne (n = 224) and person-to-person (n = 654) outbreaks was used to create a practical web-based tool that can be limited to epidemiologic parameters for nongenotyping countries. Non-genogroup-II.4 outbreaks, higher numbers of cases, and outbreaks in restaurants or households characterized (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.86) foodborne outbreaks and reduced the percentage of outbreaks requiring source-tracing to 31%. The selection tool enabled prospectively focused follow-up. Use of this tool is likely to improve data quality and strain typing in current surveillance systems, which is necessary for identification of potential international foodborne outbreaks.

  6. Observational Evidence of a Flux Rope within a Sunspot Umbra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guglielmino, Salvo L.; Zuccarello, Francesca [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia—Sezione Astrofisica, Università di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95125 Catania (Italy); Romano, Paolo, E-mail: salvo.guglielmino@oact.inaf.it [INAF—Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95125 Catania (Italy)

    2017-09-10

    We observed an elongated filamentary bright structure inside the umbra of the big sunspot in active region NOAA 12529, which differs from the light bridges usually observed in sunspots for its morphology, magnetic configuration, and velocity field. We used observations taken with the Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite to characterize this feature. Its lifetime is 5 days, during which it reaches a maximum length of about 30″. In the maps of the vertical component of the photospheric magnetic field, a portion of the feature has a polarity opposite to that of the hosting sunspot. At the same time, in the entire feature the horizontal component of the magnetic field is about 2000 G, substantially stronger than in the surrounding penumbral filaments. Doppler velocity maps reveal the presence of both upward and downward plasma motions along the structure at the photospheric level. Moreover, looking at the chromospheric level, we noted that it is located in a region corresponding to the edge of a small filament that seems rooted in the sunspot umbra. Therefore, we interpreted the bright structure as the photospheric counterpart of a flux rope touching the sunspot and giving rise to penumbral-like filaments in the umbra.

  7. Long-term periodicities in the sunspot record

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.M.

    1984-07-01

    Sunspot records are systematically maintained, with the knowledge that an 11 year average period exists since about 1850. Thus, the sunspot record of highest quality and considered to be the most reliable is that of cycle eight through the present. On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, various combinations of sine curves were used to approximate the observed R sub MAX values (where R sub MAX is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum). It is found that a three component sinusoidal function, having an 11 cycle and a 2 cycle variation on a 90 cycle periodicity, yields computed R sub MAX values which fit, reasonably well, observed R sub MAX values for the modern sunspot cycles. Extrapolation of the empirical functions forward in time allows for the projection of values of R sub MAX for cycles 21 and 22. For cycle 21, the function projects a value of 157.3, very close to the actually observed value of 164.5. For cycle 22, the function projects a value of about 107. Linear regressions applied to cycle 22 indicate a long-period cycle (cycle duration 132 months). An extensive bibliography on techniques used to estimate the time dependent behavior of sunspot cycles is provided

  8. EVIDENCE FOR A TRANSITION REGION RESPONSE TO PENUMBRAL MICROJETS IN SUNSPOTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vissers, G. J. M.; Rouppe van der Voort, L. H. M.; Carlsson, M.

    2015-01-01

    Penumbral microjets (PMJs) are short-lived, fine-structured, and bright jets that are generally observed in chromospheric imaging of the penumbra of sunspots. Here we investigate their potential transition region signature by combining observations with the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope in the Ca ii H and Ca ii 8542 Å lines with ultraviolet imaging and spectroscopy obtained with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), which includes the C ii 1334/1335 Å, Si iv 1394/1403 Å, and Mg ii h and k 2803/2796 Å lines. We find a clear corresponding signal in the IRIS Mg ii k, C ii, and Si iv slit-jaw images, typically offset spatially from the Ca ii signature in the direction along the jets: from base to top, the PMJs are predominantly visible in Ca ii, Mg ii k, and C ii/Si iv, suggesting progressive heating to transition region temperatures along the jet extent. Hence, these results support the suggestion from earlier studies that PMJs may heat to transition region temperatures

  9. NARROW-LINE-WIDTH UV BURSTS IN THE TRANSITION REGION ABOVE SUNSPOTS OBSERVED BY IRIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Zhenyong; Huang, Zhenghua; Xia, Lidong; Li, Bo; Madjarska, Maria S.; Fu, Hui; Mou, Chaozhou; Xie, Haixia, E-mail: z.huang@sdu.edu.cn, E-mail: xld@sdu.edu.cn [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, Institute of Space Sciences, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209 Shandong (China)

    2016-10-01

    Various small-scale structures abound in the solar atmosphere above active regions, playing an important role in the dynamics and evolution therein. We report on a new class of small-scale transition region structures in active regions, characterized by strong emissions but extremely narrow Si iv line profiles as found in observations taken with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Tentatively named as narrow-line-width UV bursts (NUBs), these structures are located above sunspots and comprise one or multiple compact bright cores at sub-arcsecond scales. We found six NUBs in two data sets (a raster and a sit-and-stare data set). Among these, four events are short-lived with a duration of ∼10 minutes, while two last for more than 36 minutes. All NUBs have Doppler shifts of 15–18 km s{sup −1}, while the NUB found in sit-and-stare data possesses an additional component at ∼50 km s{sup −1} found only in the C ii and Mg ii lines. Given that these events are found to play a role in the local dynamics, it is important to further investigate the physical mechanisms that generate these phenomena and their role in the mass transport in sunspots.

  10. Chromospheric Plasma Ejections in a Light Bridge of a Sunspot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Donguk; Chae, Jongchul; Yang, Heesu; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Kwak, Hannah [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826 (Korea, Republic of); Yurchyshyn, Vasyl [Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314-9672 (United States); Lim, Eun-Kyung; Cho, Kyung-Suk, E-mail: dusong@astro.snu.ac.kr [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute 776, Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-01

    It is well-known that light bridges (LBs) inside a sunspot produce small-scale plasma ejections and transient brightenings in the chromosphere, but the nature and origin of such phenomena are still unclear. Utilizing the high-spatial and high-temporal resolution spectral data taken with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph and the TiO 7057 Å broadband filter images installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report arcsecond-scale chromospheric plasma ejections (1.″7) inside a LB. Interestingly, the ejections are found to be a manifestation of upwardly propagating shock waves as evidenced by the sawtooth patterns seen in the temporal-spectral plots of the Ca ii 8542 Å and H α intensities. We also found a fine-scale photospheric pattern (1″) diverging with a speed of about 2 km s{sup −1} two minutes before the plasma ejections, which seems to be a manifestation of magnetic flux emergence. As a response to the plasma ejections, the corona displayed small-scale transient brightenings. Based on our findings, we suggest that the shock waves can be excited by the local disturbance caused by magnetic reconnection between the emerging flux inside the LB and the adjacent umbral magnetic field. The disturbance generates slow-mode waves, which soon develop into shock waves, and manifest themselves as the arcsecond-scale plasma ejections. It also appears that the dissipation of mechanical energy in the shock waves can heat the local corona.

  11. Sunspot Oscillations From The Chromosphere To The Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brynildsen, N.; Maltby, P.; Fredvik, T.; Kjeldseth-Moe, O.

    The behavior of the 3 minute sunspot oscillations is studied as a function of temper- ature through the transition region using observations with CDS/SOHO and TRACE. The oscillations occur above the umbra, with amplitudes increasing to a maximum near 200 000 K, then decreasing towards higher temperatures. Deviations from pure linear oscillations are present in several cases. Power spectra of the oscillations are remarkably similar in the chromosphere and through the transition region in contra- diction to the predictions of the sunspot filter theory. The 3 minute oscillations pene- trate to the low temperature end of the corona, where they are channeled into smaller areas coinciding with the endpoints of sunspot coronal loops. This differs from the transition zone where the oscillating region covers the umbra.

  12. Long-term Modulation of Cosmic Ray Intensity in relation to Sunspot ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    it should be more closely connected with cosmic ray modulation than with other solar characteristics (sunspot numbers or coronal emission intensity). The intensity of galactic cosmic rays varies inversely with sunspot numbers, having their maximum intensity at the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle (Forbush 1954, 1958) ...

  13. The Flares Associated with the Dynamics of the Sunspots K. M. ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tional theory of magnetic reconnection is briefly discussed. ... between changes in the sunspots' dynamics, emerging flux region, twisting of the field ... the eventual triggering of the flares is due to proper motion of the sunspots. Using .... rotation rates obtained from the daily motion of sunspot groups with respect to their life.

  14. The magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundary in sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurčák, J.; Rezaei, R.; González, N. Bello; Schlichenmaier, R.; Vomlel, J.

    2018-03-01

    Context. Sunspots are the longest-known manifestation of solar activity, and their magnetic nature has been known for more than a century. Despite this, the boundary between umbrae and penumbrae, the two fundamental sunspot regions, has hitherto been solely defined by an intensity threshold. Aim. Here, we aim at studying the magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundaries in sunspots of different sizes, morphologies, evolutionary stages, and phases of the solar cycle. Methods: We used a sample of 88 scans of the Hinode/SOT spectropolarimeter to infer the magnetic field properties in at the umbral boundaries. We defined these umbra-penumbra boundaries by an intensity threshold and performed a statistical analysis of the magnetic field properties on these boundaries. Results: We statistically prove that the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots is characterised by an invariant value of the vertical magnetic field component: the vertical component of the magnetic field strength does not depend on the umbra size, its morphology, and phase of the solar cycle. With the statistical Bayesian inference, we find that the strength of the vertical magnetic field component is, with a likelihood of 99%, in the range of 1849-1885 G with the most probable value of 1867 G. In contrast, the magnetic field strength and inclination averaged along individual boundaries are found to be dependent on the umbral size: the larger the umbra, the stronger and more horizontal the magnetic field at its boundary. Conclusions: The umbra and penumbra of sunspots are separated by a boundary that has hitherto been defined by an intensity threshold. We now unveil the empirical law of the magnetic nature of the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots: it is an invariant vertical component of the magnetic field.

  15. The Recalibrated Sunspot Number: Impact on Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clette, F.; Lefevre, L.

    2017-12-01

    Recently and for the first time since their creation, the sunspot number and group number series were entirely revisited and a first fully recalibrated version was officially released in July 2015 by the World Data Center SILSO (Brussels). Those reference long-term series are widely used as input data or as a calibration reference by various solar cycle prediction methods. Therefore, past predictions may now need to be redone using the new sunspot series, and methods already used for predicting cycle 24 will require adaptations before attempting predictions of the next cycles.In order to clarify the nature of the applied changes, we describe the different corrections applied to the sunspot and group number series, which affect extended time periods and can reach up to 40%. While some changes simply involve constant scale factors, other corrections vary with time or follow the solar cycle modulation. Depending on the prediction method and on the selected time interval, this can lead to different responses and biases. Moreover, together with the new series, standard error estimates are also progressively added to the new sunspot numbers, which may help deriving more accurate uncertainties for predicted activity indices. We conclude on the new round of recalibration that is now undertaken in the framework of a broad multi-team collaboration articulated around upcoming ISSI workshops. We outline the future corrections that can still be expected in the future, as part of a permanent upgrading process and quality control. From now on, future sunspot-based predictive models should thus be made more adaptable, and regular updates of predictions should become common practice in order to track periodic upgrades of the sunspot number series, just like it is done when using other modern solar observational series.

  16. A new look at sunspot formation using theory and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losada, I. R.; Warnecke, J.; Glogowski, K.; Roth, M.; Brandenburg, A.; Kleeorin, N.; Rogachevskii, I.

    2017-10-01

    Sunspots are of basic interest in the study of the Sun. Their relevance ranges from them being an activity indicator of magnetic fields to being the place where coronal mass ejections and flares erupt. They are therefore also an important ingredient of space weather. Their formation, however, is still an unresolved problem in solar physics. Observations utilize just 2D surface information near the spot, but it is debatable how to infer deep structures and properties from local helioseismology. For a long time, it was believed that flux tubes rising from the bottom of the convection zone are the origin of the bipolar sunspot structure seen on the solar surface. However, this theory has been challenged, in particular recently by new surface observation, helioseismic inversions, and numerical models of convective dynamos. In this article we discuss another theoretical approach to the formation of sunspots: the negative effective magnetic pressure instability. This is a large-scale instability, in which the total (kinetic plus magnetic) turbulent pressure can be suppressed in the presence of a weak large-scale magnetic field, leading to a converging downflow, which eventually concentrates the magnetic field within it. Numerical simulations of forced stratified turbulence have been able to produce strong super-equipartition flux concentrations, similar to sunspots at the solar surface. In this framework, sunspots would only form close to the surface due to the instability constraints on stratification and rotation. Additionally, we present some ideas from local helioseismology, where we plan to use the Hankel analysis to study the pre-emergence phase of a sunspot and to constrain its deep structure and formation mechanism.

  17. Beating the odds: Successful establishment of a Phase II/III clinical research trial in resource-poor Liberia during the largest-ever Ebola outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Doe-Anderson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It has been argued that a country such as Liberia, not fully recovered from the devastation of decades of civil unrest, lacked the appropriate ethical and regulatory framework, basic human and health care services, and infrastructure to carry out clinical trials according to international standards of quality during a public health emergency. However, as Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea were being ravaged by the largest and most devastating Ebola Virus Disease (EVD outbreak ever recorded, the topic of conducting clinical trials of experimental vaccine and treatment candidates in these resource-poor countries generated the keen interest and concern of scientists, researchers, physicians, bioethicists, philanthropists, and even politicians. Decisive action on behalf of the Liberian government, and a timely positive and supportive response from the United States (U.S. government, led to the formation of PREVAIL (Partnership for Research on Ebola Vaccines in Liberia – a clinical research partnership between the two governments. Within a span of 12 weeks, this partnership accomplished the unimaginable: the successful initiation of a Phase II/III vaccine clinical trial for EVD in Liberia. This paper will discuss the dynamics of the research collaboration, barriers encountered, breakthroughs realized, key elements of success, and lessons learned in the process.

  18. HELIOSEISMIC HOLOGRAPHY OF SIMULATED SUNSPOTS: MAGNETIC AND THERMAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO TRAVEL TIMES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Felipe, T. [Departamento de Astrofísica, Universidad de La Laguna, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D. [NorthWest Research Associates, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Birch, A. C., E-mail: tobias@iac.es [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

    2016-10-01

    Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

  19. HELIOSEISMIC HOLOGRAPHY OF SIMULATED SUNSPOTS: MAGNETIC AND THERMAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO TRAVEL TIMES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felipe, T.; Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D.; Birch, A. C.

    2016-01-01

    Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

  20. Sunspots and the physics of magnetic flux tubes in the sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballegooijen, A.A. van.

    1982-01-01

    This thesis refers to the sub-surface structure of the solar magnetic field. Following an introductory chapter, chapter II presents an analysis of spectroscopic observations of a sunspot at infrared wavelengths and models of the temperature stratification in the sunspot atmosphere are derived. The main subject of this thesis concerns the structure of the magnetic field deep down below the stellar surface, near the base of the convective envelope. In Chapter III the stability of toroidal flux tubes to wave-like perturbations is discussed, assuming that the tubes are neutrally buoyant. A model is proposed in which the toroidal flux tubes are neutrally buoyant and located in a stably stratified layer just below the base of the convective zone. On the basis of some simple assumptions for the temperature stratification in this storage layer the author considers in Chapter IV the properties of the vertical flux tubes in the convective zone. The adiabatic flux model cannot satisfactorily be applied to the simplified model of the storage layer, so that the problem of magnetic flux storage is reconsidered in Chapter V. A new model of the temperature stratification at the interface of convective zone and radiative interior of the sun is described. Finally, in Chapter VI, the stability of toroidal flux tubes in a differentially rotating star are discussed. It is demonstrated that for realistic values of the magnetic field strength, rotation has a strong effect on the stability of the toroidal flux tubes. (C.F.)

  1. Are climatological correlations with the Hale double sunspot cycle meaningful

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, R.A.; Herman, J.R.

    1975-09-01

    A sunspot cycle which may have been subject to a predicted phase reversal between 1800 and 1880 A.D. is discussed. Several climatological parameters normally correlated with this cycle are examined and do not exhibit a corresponding phase reversal during this period. It is proposed that this apparent discrepency can be resolved by suitable observations during the upcoming half decade

  2. Automated Sunspot Detection and Classification Using SOHO/MDI Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    to the geocentric North). 3. Focus and size of the solar disk is adjusted to fit an 18 cm diameter circle on the worksheet. 4. Analyst hand draws the...General Nature of the Sunspot,” The Astrophysical Journal 230, 905–913 (1979). 14. Wheatland, M. S., “A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction,” The

  3. 3-color photometry of a sunspot using speckle masking techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiehr, E.; Sütterlin, P.

    1998-01-01

    A three-colour photometry is used to deduce the temperature of sunspot fine-structures. Using the Speckle-Masking method for image restoration, the resulting images (one per colour and burst) have a spatial resolution only limited by the telescope's aperture, i.e. 95km (blue), 145 km (red) and

  4. SUNSPOT CYCLES IMPACTS ON TOURISM AND QUALITY OF LIFE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeja Jere Jakulin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We live under the influence of natural cycles caused by the rotation of our planet and its revolution around the sun. The nature of our nearest star is also subject to cyclical change. This article presents a study of a correlation between sunspot cycles and foreign tourists arrivals in Slovenia, based on historical data between sunspot cycles and sea salt production in Slovenia's Municipality of Piran during the Maunder Minimum period (1645-1715. The production of salt by the solar evaporation of brine in salt pans and tourist industry are seasonal economic activities that are affected by changes to the weather. The paper looks at sea salt production in Piran during a particular period in the past. The repetition of the sea salt production in the past is not possible. For this reason, the study uses mathematical tools and an additional case study, which analyses arrivals of foreign tourists to Slovenia over the past 65 years (1948-2012. The study has two purposes: to identify a linear correlation coefficient, which provides evidence of a correlation between arrivals of foreign tourists to Slovenia and sunspot cycles and to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD or so called qualitative model of a complex tourism system, which shows the interdependency of sunspot cycles, tourism system, and quality of life.

  5. Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

    1972-01-01

    The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

  6. Improvement of the photometric sunspot index and changes of the disk-integrated sunspot contrast with time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehlich, Claus; Pap, Judit M.; Hudson, Hugh S.

    1994-06-01

    The photometric sunspot index (PSI) was developed to study the effects of sunspots on solar irradiance. It is calculated from the sunspot data published in the Solar-Geophysical Data catalog. It has been shown that the former PSI models overestimate the effect of dark sunspots on solar irradiance; furthermore results of direct sunspot photometry indicate that the contrast of spots depends on their area. An improved PSI calculation is presented; it takes into account the area dependence of the contrast and calculates `true' daily means for each observation using the differential rotation of the spots. Moreover, the observations are screened for outliers which improves the homogeneity of the data set substantially, at least for the period after December 1981 when NOAA started to report data from a few instead of one to two stations. A detailed description of the method is provided. The correlation between the newly calculated PSI and total solar irradiance is studied for different phases of the solar cycles 21 and 22 using bi-variate spectral analysis. The results can be used as a `calibration' of PSI in terms of gain, the factor by which PSI has to be multiplied to yield the observed irradiance change. The factor changes with time from about 0.6 in 1980 to 1.1 in 1990. This unexpected result cannot be interpreted by a change of the contrast relative to the quiet Sun (as it is normally defined and determined by direct photometry) but rather as a change of the contrast between the spots and their surrounding as seen in total irradiance (integrated over the solar disk). This may partly be explained by a change in the ratio between the areas of the spots and the surrounding faculae.

  7. Disease Outbreak News

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... MERS-CoV) Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface (HAI) Related documents WHO outbreak communication guide 2008 WHO outbreak communications guidelines Outbreak communication: ...

  8. Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

  9. On the correlation of longitudinal and latitudinal motions of sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilman, P.A.

    1984-01-01

    Using new measurements of positions of individual sunspots and sunspot groups obtained from 62 years of the Mt. Wilson white-light plate collection, we have recomputed the correlation between longitude and latitude motion. Our results for groups are similar to those of Ward (1965a) computed from the Greenwich record, but for individual spots the covariance is reduced by a factor of about 3 from the Ward values, though still of the same sign and still statistically significant. We conclude that there is a real correlation between longitude and latitude movement of individual spots, implying angular momentum transport toward the equator as inferred by Ward. The two thirds reduction in the covariance for individual spots as opposed to groups is probably due to certain properties of spot groups, as first pointed out in an unpublished manuscript by Leighton. (orig.)

  10. Molecular Diagnostics of the Internal Structure of Starspots and Sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afram, N.; Berdyugina, S. V.; Fluri, D. M.; Solanki, S. K.; Lagg, A.; Petit, P.; Arnaud, J.

    2006-12-01

    We have analyzed the usefulness of molecules as a diagnostic tool for studying solar and stellar magnetism with the molecular Zeeman and Paschen-Back effects. In the first part we concentrate on molecules that are observed in sunspots such as MgH and TiO. We present calculated molecular line profiles obtained by assuming magnetic fields of 2-3 kG and compare these synthetic Stokes profiles with spectro-polarimetric observations in sunspots. The good agreement between the theory and observations allows us to turn our attention in the second part to starspots to gain insight into their internal structure. We investigate the temperature range in which the selected molecules can serve as indicators for magnetic fields on highly active cool stars and compare synthetic Stokes profiles with our recent observations.

  11. Aurorae, sunspots and weather, mainly since A.D. 1200

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schove, D.J.

    1981-01-01

    Auroral records recieved for the Spectrum of Time project were used in 1955 to estimate sunspot activity and the dates maxima and minima back to 649 B.C. An additional set of rules has been developed and has made possible further improvements utilizing the separate auroral maxima associated with flares and coronal holes on the sun. A further set can now be given. 1) The time between sunspot maxima depends especially on the ratio of the amplitudes: the time between minima is high if the next cycle is very weak and low when the two consecutive cycles are both strong. 2) The time of rise is usually dependent on the strength of the next maxima, and the time of fall is low when a moderate cycle is followed by a strong one. (orig./WL)

  12. Studies of kinematic elements in two multicenter sunspot groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korobova, Z.B.

    1983-01-01

    Some features of kinematic elements (KE) in two multicenter sunspot groups were studied using Tashkent full-disc white light heliograms. KE and morphological elements do not reveal any relationship. A KE coincides with a unipolar or multipolar spot or with part of a spot. It may also contain an extended stream including several spots. Relation of KE to large-scale photospheric magnetic fields is less clear. The line of polarity reversal is, in most cases, the deviding line between two adjacent KE. At the same time, a KE can contain spots of both polarities. Sunspot trajectories in the leading polarity regions show the best similarity. Interactions of KE are greatly influenced by the meridional drift. (author)

  13. Application of the Markov chain approximation to the sunspot observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onal, M.

    1988-01-01

    The positions of the 13,588 sunspot groups observed during the cycle of 1950-1960 at the Istanbul University Observatory have been corrected for the effect of differential rotation. The evolution probability of a sunspot group to the other one in the same region have been determined. By using the Markov chain approximation, the types of these groups and their transition probabilities during the following activity cycle (1950-1960), and the concentration of active regions during 1950-1960 have been estimated. The transition probabilities from the observations of the activity cycle 1960-1970 have been compared with the predicted transition probabilities and a good correlation has been noted. 5 refs.; 2 tabs

  14. LONG-TERM MEASUREMENTS OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC TILT ANGLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Jing [Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 (United States); Ulrich, Roger K., E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 (United States)

    2012-10-20

    Tilt angles of close to 30,600 sunspots are determined using Mount Wilson daily averaged magnetograms taken from 1974 to 2012, and SOHO/MDI magnetograms taken from 1996 to 2010. Within a cycle, more than 90% of sunspots have a normal polarity alignment along the east-west direction following Hale's law. The median tilts increase with increasing latitude (Joy's law) at a rate of {approx}0.{sup 0}5 per degree of latitude. Tilt angles of spots appear largely invariant with respect to time at a given latitude, but they decrease by {approx}0.{sup 0}9 per year on average, a trend that largely reflects Joy's law following the butterfly diagram. We find an asymmetry between the hemispheres in the mean tilt angles. On average, the tilts are greater in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere for all latitude zones, and the differences increase with increasing latitude.

  15. Visual Circular Analysis of 266 Years of Sunspot Counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buelens, Bart

    2016-06-01

    Sunspots, colder areas that are visible as dark spots on the surface of the Sun, have been observed for centuries. Their number varies with a period of ∼11 years, a phenomenon closely related to the solar activity cycle. Recently, observation records dating back to 1749 have been reassessed, resulting in the release of a time series of sunspot numbers covering 266 years of observations. This series is analyzed using circular analysis to determine the periodicity of the occurrence of solar maxima. The circular analysis is combined with spiral graphs to provide a single visualization, simultaneously showing the periodicity of the series, the degree to which individual cycle lengths deviate from the average period, and differences in levels reached during the different maxima. This type of visualization of cyclic time series with varying cycle lengths in which significant events occur periodically is broadly applicable. It is aimed particularly at science communication, education, and public outreach.

  16. The Temperature - Magnetic Field Relation in Observed and Simulated Sunspots

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sobotka, Michal; Rezaei, R.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 292, č. 12 (2017), 188/1-188/12 ISSN 0038-0938 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-04338S; GA MŠk(CZ) 7E13003 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 312495 - SOLARNET Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : sunspots * magnetic fields * comparison Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OBOR OECD: Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science) Impact factor: 2.682, year: 2016

  17. SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S. [Monash Center for Astrophysics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800 (Australia)

    2015-07-01

    We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave.

  18. SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S.

    2015-01-01

    We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave

  19. Photospheric Origin of Three-minute Oscillations in a Sunspot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chae, Jongchul; Lee, Jeongwoo; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Song, Donguk [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Kyungsuk; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-10

    The origin of the three-minute oscillations of intensity and velocity observed in the chromosphere of sunspot umbrae is still unclear. We investigated the spatio-spectral properties of the 3 minute oscillations of velocity in the photosphere of a sunspot umbra as well as those in the low chromosphere using the spectral data of the Ni i λ 5436, Fe i λ 5435, and Na i D{sub 2} λ 5890 lines taken by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. As a result, we found a local enhancement of the 3 minute oscillation power in the vicinities of a light bridge (LB) and numerous umbral dots (UDs) in the photosphere. These 3 minute oscillations occurred independently of the 5 minute oscillations. Through wavelet analysis, we determined the amplitudes and phases of the 3 minute oscillations at the formation heights of the spectral lines, and they were found to be consistent with the upwardly propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves in the photosphere with energy flux large enough to explain the chromospheric oscillations. Our results suggest that the 3 minute chromospheric oscillations in this sunspot may have been generated by magnetoconvection occurring in the LB and UDs.

  20. Frequently Occurring Reconnection Jets from Sunspot Light Bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hui; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Peter, Hardi; Solanki, Sami K.; Young, Peter R.; Ni, Lei; Cao, Wenda; Ji, Kaifan; Zhu, Yingjie; Zhang, Jingwen; Samanta, Tanmoy; Song, Yongliang; He, Jiansen; Wang, Linghua; Chen, Yajie

    2018-02-01

    Solid evidence of magnetic reconnection is rarely reported within sunspots, the darkest regions with the strongest magnetic fields and lowest temperatures in the solar atmosphere. Using the world’s largest solar telescope, the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope, we detect prevalent reconnection through frequently occurring fine-scale jets in the Hα line wings at light bridges, the bright lanes that may divide the dark sunspot core into multiple parts. Many jets have an inverted Y-shape, shown by models to be typical of reconnection in a unipolar field environment. Simultaneous spectral imaging data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph show that the reconnection drives bidirectional flows up to 200 km s‑1, and that the weakly ionized plasma is heated by at least an order of magnitude up to ∼80,000 K. Such highly dynamic reconnection jets and efficient heating should be properly accounted for in future modeling efforts of sunspots. Our observations also reveal that the surge-like activity previously reported above light bridges in some chromospheric passbands such as the Hα core has two components: the ever-present short surges likely to be related to the upward leakage of magnetoacoustic waves from the photosphere, and the occasionally occurring long and fast surges that are obviously caused by the intermittent reconnection jets.

  1. Prediction on sunspot activity based on fuzzy information granulation and support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Lingling; Yan, Haisheng; Yang, Zhigang

    2018-04-01

    In order to analyze the range of sunspots, a combined prediction method of forecasting the fluctuation range of sunspots based on fuzzy information granulation (FIG) and support vector machine (SVM) was put forward. Firstly, employing the FIG to granulate sample data and extract va)alid information of each window, namely the minimum value, the general average value and the maximum value of each window. Secondly, forecasting model is built respectively with SVM and then cross method is used to optimize these parameters. Finally, the fluctuation range of sunspots is forecasted with the optimized SVM model. Case study demonstrates that the model have high accuracy and can effectively predict the fluctuation of sunspots.

  2. Wings of the butterfly: Sunspot groups for 1826-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leussu, R.; Usoskin, I. G.; Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Diercke, A.; Arlt, R.; Denker, C.; Mursula, K.

    2017-03-01

    The spatio-temporal evolution of sunspot activity, the so-called Maunder butterfly diagram, has been continously available since 1874 using data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory, extended by SOON network data after 1976. Here we present a new extended butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence since 1826, using the recently digitized data from Schwabe (1826-1867) and Spörer (1866-1880). The wings of the diagram are separated using a recently developed method based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. We define characteristic latitudes, corresponding to the start, end, and the largest extent of the wings (the F, L, and H latitudes). The H latitudes (30°-45°) are highly significantly correlated with the strength of the wings (quantified by the total sum of the monthly numbers of sunspot groups). The F latitudes (20°-30°) depict a weak tendency, especially in the southern hemisphere, to follow the wing strength. The L latitudes (2°-10°) show no clear relation to the wing strength. Overall, stronger cycle wings tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater wing extent. A strong (5-6)-cycle periodic oscillation is found in the start and end times of the wings and in the overlap and gaps between successive wings of one hemisphere. While the average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, it is two to three months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about ten solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. The new long database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints to solar dynamo models that discuss the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrence over the solar cycle and longer. Digital data for Fig. 1 are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/599/A131

  3. Sunspot number recalibration: The ~1840–1920 anomaly in the observer normalization factors of the group sunspot number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cliver Edward W.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the normalization factors (k′-factors used to scale secondary observers to the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO reference series of the Hoyt & Schatten (1998a, 1998b group sunspot number (GSN. A time series of these k′-factors exhibits an anomaly from 1841 to 1920, viz., the average k′-factor for all observers who began reporting groups from 1841 to 1883 is 1.075 vs. 1.431 for those who began from 1884 to 1920, with a progressive rise, on average, during the latter period. The 1883–1884 break between the two subintervals occurs precisely at the point where Hoyt and Schatten began to use a complex daisy-chaining method to scale observers to RGO. The 1841–1920 anomaly implies, implausibly, that the average sunspot observer who began from 1841 to 1883 was nearly as proficient at counting groups as mid-20th century RGO (for which k′ = 1.0 by definition while observers beginning during the 1884–1920 period regressed in group counting capability relative to those from the earlier interval. Instead, as shown elsewhere and substantiated here, RGO group counts increased relative to those of other long-term observers from 1874 to ~1915. This apparent inhomogeneity in the RGO group count series is primarily responsible for the increase in k′-factors from 1884 to 1920 and the suppression, by 44% on average, of the Hoyt and Schatten GSN relative to the original Wolf sunspot number (WSN before ~1885. Correcting for the early “learning curve” in the RGO reference series and minimizing the use of daisy-chaining rectifies the anomalous behavior of the k′-factor series. The resultant GSN time series (designated GSN* is in reasonable agreement with the revised WSN (SN*; Clette & Lefèvre 2016 and the backbone-based group sunspot number (RGS; Svalgaard & Schatten 2016 but significantly higher than other recent reconstructions (Friedli, personal communication, 2016; Lockwood et al. 2014a, 2014b; Usoskin et al. 2016a. This result

  4. Disneyland Measles Outbreak

    OpenAIRE

    Palladino, Erica

    2015-01-01

    This media information sheet analyzes print and online coverage of the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak. The frameworks that the media used to report on the outbreak presented vaccination as the only viable option from preventing the spread of measles. Reporting also failed to mention that the 2015 Disneyland measles outbreak was smaller than U.S. measles outbreaks in 2013 and 2014.

  5. Surge-like Oscillations above Sunspot Light Bridges Driven by Magnetoacoustic Shocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jingwen; Tian, Hui; He, Jiansen; Wang, Linghua, E-mail: huitian@pku.edu.cn [School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, 100871 Beijing (China)

    2017-03-20

    High-resolution observations of the solar chromosphere and transition region often reveal surge-like oscillatory activities above sunspot light bridges (LBs). These oscillations are often interpreted as intermittent plasma jets produced by quasi-periodic magnetic reconnection. We have analyzed the oscillations above an LB in a sunspot using data taken by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph . The chromospheric 2796 Å images show surge-like activities above the entire LB at any time, forming an oscillating wall. Within the wall we often see that the core of the Mg ii k 2796.35 Å line first experiences a large blueshift, and then gradually decreases to zero shift before increasing to a redshift of comparable magnitude. Such a behavior suggests that the oscillations are highly nonlinear and likely related to shocks. In the 1400 Å passband, which samples emission mainly from the Si iv ion, the most prominent feature is a bright oscillatory front ahead of the surges. We find a positive correlation between the acceleration and maximum velocity of the moving front, which is consistent with numerical simulations of upward propagating slow-mode shock waves. The Si iv 1402.77 Å line profile is generally enhanced and broadened in the bright front, which might be caused by turbulence generated through compression or by the shocks. These results, together with the fact that the oscillation period stays almost unchanged over a long duration, lead us to propose that the surge-like oscillations above LBs are caused by shocked p-mode waves leaked from the underlying photosphere.

  6. Stokes profile analysis and vector magnetic fields. III. Extended temperature minima of sunspot umbrae as inferred from Stokes profiles of Mg I 4571 A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lites, B.W.; Skumanich, A.; Rees, D.E.; Murphy, G.A.; Carlsson, M.; Sydney Univ., Australia; Oslo Universitetet, Norway)

    1987-01-01

    Observed Stokes profiles of Mg I 4571 A are analyzed as a diagnostic of the magnetic field and thermal structure at the temperature minimum of sunspot umbrae. Multilevel non-LTE transfer calculations of the Mg I-II-III excitation and ionization balance in model umbral atmospheres show: (1) Mg I to be far less ionized in sunspot umbrae than in the quiet sun, leading to greatly enhanced opacity in 4571 A, and (2) LTE excitation of 4571 A. Existing umbral models predict emission cores of the Stokes I profile due to the chromospheric temperature rise. This feature is not present in observed umbral profiles. Moreover, such an emission reversal causes similar anomalous features in the Stokes Q, U, V profiles, which are also not observed. Umbral atmospheres with extended temperature minima are suggested. Implications for chromospheric heating mechanisms and the utility of this line for solar vector magnetic field measurements are discussed. 35 references

  7. A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2012-01-01

    The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

  8. Distribution of electric currents in sunspots from photosphere to corona

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gosain, Sanjay [National Solar Observatory, 950 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Démoulin, Pascal [Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, UMR 8109 (CNRS), F-92195 Meudon Principal Cedex (France); López Fuentes, Marcelo [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), UBA-CONICET, CC. 67, Suc. 28 Buenos Aires 1428 (Argentina)

    2014-09-20

    We present a study of two regular sunspots that exhibit nearly uniform twist from the photosphere to the corona. We derive the twist parameter in the corona and in the chromosphere by minimizing the difference between the extrapolated linear force-free field model field lines and the observed intensity structures in the extreme-ultraviolet images of the Sun. The chromospheric structures appear more twisted than the coronal structures by a factor of two. Further, we derive the vertical component of electric current density, j{sub z} , using vector magnetograms from the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). The spatial distribution of j{sub z} has a zebra pattern of strong positive and negative values owing to the penumbral fibril structure resolved by Hinode/SOT. This zebra pattern is due to the derivative of the horizontal magnetic field across the thin fibrils; therefore, it is strong and masks weaker currents that might be present, for example, as a result of the twist of the sunspot. We decompose j{sub z} into the contribution due to the derivatives along and across the direction of the horizontal field, which follows the fibril orientation closely. The map of the tangential component has more distributed currents that are coherent with the chromospheric and coronal twisted structures. Moreover, it allows us to map and identify the direct and return currents in the sunspots. Finally, this decomposition of j{sub z} is general and can be applied to any vector magnetogram in order to better identify the weaker large-scale currents that are associated with coronal twisted/sheared structures.

  9. Observations of the birth and fine structure of sunspot penumbrae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collados, M.; Garcia de la Rosa, J.I.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Vazquez, M.

    1985-01-01

    High resolution white-light pictures of sunspot penumbrae are presented. These include pictures showing details of their filamentary structure and some instances of birth of a penumbra. The observations are discussed in the framework of current penumbra theories. A series of pictures have been presented, which give additional evidence of the existence of dark penumbral filaments as individual structures. With respect to the birth of the penumbra some new observational aspects can be seen. The existence of the filamentary penumbra even in the first moments, its non uniformity and its short length are the major aspects derived from the pictures

  10. SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

    2009-01-01

    The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

  11. The visibility function and its effect on the observed characteristics of sunspot groups. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopecky, M.; Kuklin, G.V.; Starkova, I.P.

    1985-01-01

    The paper is an introductory study to a series dealing with the visibility function, the function of foreshortening of sunspot group areas, and with the effect of these functions on the results of the statistical processing of observations, which has to be taken into account in interpreting the results. A ''diagram of observational conditions'' is described, which enables a number of statistical problems of sunspot groups on the rotating Sun to be solved by computer modelling or by graphical methods. Examples are given of the use of this diagram in studying the distribution of the observed lifetime of sunspot groups with a given actual lifetime, of the decrease in the number of sunspot groups towards the limb of the solar disc, of the east-west asymmetry of sunspot group appearance and disappearance. (author)

  12. Investigation of Quasi-periodic Solar Oscillations in Sunspots Based on SOHO/MDI Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallunki, J.; Riehokainen, A.

    2012-10-01

    In this work we study quasi-periodic solar oscillations in sunspots, based on the variation of the amplitude of the magnetic field strength and the variation of the sunspot area. We investigate long-period oscillations between three minutes and ten hours. The magnetic field synoptic maps were obtained from the SOHO/MDI. Wavelet (Morlet), global wavelet spectrum (GWS) and fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods are used in the periodicity analysis at the 95 % significance level. Additionally, the quiet Sun area (QSA) signal and an instrumental effect are discussed. We find several oscillation periods in the sunspots above the 95 % significance level: 3 - 5, 10 - 23, 220 - 240, 340 and 470 minutes, and we also find common oscillation periods (10 - 23 minutes) between the sunspot area variation and that of the magnetic field strength. We discuss possible mechanisms for the obtained results, based on the existing models for sunspot oscillations.

  13. SUNSPOT AND STARSPOT LIFETIMES IN A TURBULENT EROSION MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvinenko, Yuri E. [Department of Mathematics, University of Waikato, P. B. 3105, Hamilton (New Zealand); Wheatland, M. S. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia)

    2017-01-10

    Quantitative models of sunspot and starspot decay predict the timescale of magnetic diffusion and may yield important constraints in stellar dynamo models. Motivated by recent measurements of starspot lifetimes, we investigate the disintegration of a magnetic flux tube by nonlinear diffusion. Previous theoretical studies are extended by considering two physically motivated functional forms for the nonlinear diffusion coefficient D : an inverse power-law dependence D ∝ B {sup −ν} and a step-function dependence of D on the magnetic field magnitude B . Analytical self-similar solutions are presented for the power-law case, including solutions exhibiting “super fast” diffusion. For the step-function case, the heat-balance integral method yields approximate solutions, valid for moderately suppressed diffusion in the spot. The accuracy of the resulting solutions is confirmed numerically, using a method which provides an accurate description of long-time evolution by imposing boundary conditions at infinite distance from the spot. The new models may allow insight into the differences and similarities between sunspots and starspots.

  14. Response of Solar Irradiance to Sunspot-area Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudok de Wit, T.; Kopp, G.; Shapiro, A.; Witzke, V.; Kretzschmar, M.

    2018-02-01

    One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e., on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e., days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger & Walton showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which questions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to a sunspot area.

  15. Extreme Value Theory Applied to the Millennial Sunspot Number Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, F. J.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Usoskin, I. G.; Vaquero, J. M.

    2018-01-01

    In this work, we use two decadal sunspot number series reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide data (14C in tree trunks, SN 14C, and 10Be in polar ice, SN 10Be) and the extreme value theory to study variability of solar activity during the last nine millennia. The peaks-over-threshold technique was used to compute, in particular, the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution for different thresholds. Its negative value implies an upper bound of the extreme SN 10Be and SN 14C timeseries. The return level for 1000 and 10,000 years were estimated leading to values lower than the maximum observed values, expected for the 1000 year, but not for the 10,000 year return levels, for both series. A comparison of these results with those obtained using the observed sunspot numbers from telescopic observations during the last four centuries suggests that the main characteristics of solar activity have already been recorded in the telescopic period (from 1610 to nowadays) which covers the full range of solar variability from a Grand minimum to a Grand maximum.

  16. Depressed emission between magnetic arcades near a sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryabov, B. I.; Shibasaki, K.

    The locations of the depressed emission in microwaves, EUV and soft X-rays are compared with each other and with the location of the plasma outflow in the active region (AR) 8535 on the Sun. We found that two open-field regions overlap the regions of depressed emission near the AR's sunspot. These two open-field regions are simulated with the potential-field source-surface (PFSS) model under radial distances of RSS = 1.8 R⊙ and RSS = 2.5 R⊙. Each open-field region is located between the arcades of the loops of the same magnetic polarity. The former open-field region covers the region of the plasma outflow, which is thus useful for the tests on connection to the heliosphere. The utmost microwave depression of the intensity in the ordinary mode (the Very Large Array 15 GHz observations) also overlaps the region of the plasma outflow and thus indicates this outflow. The lasting for eight days depression in soft X-rays and the SOHO EIT 2.84× 10-8 m images are attributed to the evacuation of as hot coronal plasma as T≥ 2× 106 K from the extended in height (``open") magnetic structures. We conclude that the AR 8535 presents the sunspot atmosphere affected by the large-scale magnetic fields.

  17. Sunspots sketches during the solar eclipses of 9th January and 29th December of 1777 in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-Castro, Fernando; Gallego, María Cruz; Vaquero, José Manuel

    2017-06-01

    Two sunspot observations recorded by the Mexican Felipe de Zúñiga y Ontiveros have been revealed from a manuscript. One sunspot group was recorded on 9th January 1777 and four sunspot groups on 29th December 1777. Both records were taken during the observation of solar eclipses from Mexico City and their description also included sketches of the solar disk with sunspots. The sunspot group corresponding to 9th January was also observed by Erasmus Lievog. The observation on 29th December 1777 is the only record corresponding to this date.

  18. DETECTION OF SUPERSONIC DOWNFLOWS AND ASSOCIATED HEATING EVENTS IN THE TRANSITION REGION ABOVE SUNSPOTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleint, L.; Martínez-Sykora, J. [Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, 625 2nd Street, Ste. 209, Petaluma, CA (United States); Antolin, P. [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Tian, H.; Testa, P.; Reeves, K. K.; McKillop, S.; Saar, S.; Golub, L. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Judge, P. [High Altitude Observatory/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); De Pontieu, B.; Wuelser, J. P.; Boerner, P.; Hurlburt, N.; Lemen, J.; Tarbell, T. D.; Title, A. [Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, 3251 Hanover St., Org. ADBS, Bldg. 252, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (United States); Carlsson, M.; Hansteen, V. [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029, Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Jaeggli, S., E-mail: lucia.kleint@fhnw.ch [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, P.O. Box 173840, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); and others

    2014-07-10

    Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph data allow us to study the solar transition region (TR) with an unprecedented spatial resolution of 0.''33. On 2013 August 30, we observed bursts of high Doppler shifts suggesting strong supersonic downflows of up to 200 km s{sup –1} and weaker, slightly slower upflows in the spectral lines Mg II h and k, C II 1336, Si IV 1394 Å, and 1403 Å, that are correlated with brightenings in the slitjaw images (SJIs). The bursty behavior lasts throughout the 2 hr observation, with average burst durations of about 20 s. The locations of these short-lived events appear to be the umbral and penumbral footpoints of EUV loops. Fast apparent downflows are observed along these loops in the SJIs and in the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, suggesting that the loops are thermally unstable. We interpret the observations as cool material falling from coronal heights, and especially coronal rain produced along the thermally unstable loops, which leads to an increase of intensity at the loop footpoints, probably indicating an increase of density and temperature in the TR. The rain speeds are on the higher end of previously reported speeds for this phenomenon, and possibly higher than the free-fall velocity along the loops. On other observing days, similar bright dots are sometimes aligned into ribbons, resembling small flare ribbons. These observations provide a first insight into small-scale heating events in sunspots in the TR.

  19. RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.; Li, J.

    2014-01-01

    Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators

  20. RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McClintock, B. H. [University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, 4350 (Australia); Norton, A. A. [HEPL, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305 (United States); Li, J., E-mail: u1049686@umail.usq.edu.au, E-mail: aanorton@stanford.edu, E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2014-12-20

    Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

  1. TRANSITION-REGION/CORONAL SIGNATURES AND MAGNETIC SETTING OF SUNSPOT PENUMBRAL JETS: HINODE (SOT/FG), Hi-C, AND SDO/AIA OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiwari, Sanjiv K.; Moore, Ronald L.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Alpert, Shane E.

    2016-01-01

    Penumbral microjets (PJs) are transient narrow bright features in the chromosphere of sunspot penumbrae, first characterized by Katsukawa et al. using the Ca ii H-line filter on Hinode's Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). It was proposed that the PJs form as a result of reconnection between two magnetic components of penumbrae (spines and interspines), and that they could contribute to the transition region (TR) and coronal heating above sunspot penumbrae. We propose a modified picture of formation of PJs based on recent results on the internal structure of sunspot penumbral filaments. Using data of a sunspot from Hinode/SOT, High Resolution Coronal Imager, and different passbands of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we examine whether PJs have signatures in the TR and corona. We find hardly any discernible signature of normal PJs in any AIA passbands, except for a few of them showing up in the 1600 Å images. However, we discovered exceptionally stronger jets with similar lifetimes but bigger sizes (up to 600 km wide) occurring repeatedly in a few locations in the penumbra, where evidence of patches of opposite-polarity fields in the tails of some penumbral filaments is seen in Stokes-V images. These tail PJs do display signatures in the TR. Whether they have any coronal-temperature plasma is unclear. We infer that none of the PJs, including the tail PJs, directly heat the corona in active regions significantly, but any penumbral jet might drive some coronal heating indirectly via the generation of Alfvén waves and/or braiding of the coronal field

  2. On the chromospheric network structure around deVeloped groups of sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kartashova, L.G.

    1980-01-01

    The chromospheric network structure around several developed groups of sunspots were studied on the basis of the observations in the Hsub(α) line. The resolution on the filtergrams was of 2. The following was found: 1) in the neighbourhood of the groups of sunspots 70% (from 870) of network cells stretch along fibrils direction (with accuracy 30 deg), and 15% of cells stretch approximately across that (at angles 70-90 deg); 2) out of the boundary of the main radial fibrils structure the groups of sunspots is often rounded by the system of network cells stretched approximately perpendicular to radial direction

  3. Sunspot Equilibria in a Production Economy: Do Rational Animal Spirits Cause Overproduction?

    OpenAIRE

    Kajii, Atsushi

    2008-01-01

    We study a standard two period economy with one nominal bond and one firm. The input of the firm is done in the first period and financed with the nominal bond, and its profits are distributed to the shareholders in the second period. We show that a sunspot equilibrium exists around each efficient equilibrium. The interest rate is lower than optimal and there is over production in sunspot equilibria, under some conditions. But a sunspot equilibrium does not exist if the profit share can be tr...

  4. The photospheric vector magnetic field of a sunspot and its vertical gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagyard, M. J.; West, E. A.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Smith, J. E.; Henze, W., Jr.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, E. C.; Hyder, C. L.; Gurman, J. B.; Shine, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    The results of direct comparisons of photospheric and transition region line-of-sight field observations of sunspots using the SMM UV spectrometer and polarimeter are reported. The analysis accompanying the data is concentrated on demonstrating that the sunspot concentrated magnetic field extends into the transition region. An observation of a sunspot on Oct. 23, 1980 at the S 18 E 03 location is used as an example. Maximum field strengths ranged from 2030-2240 gauss for large and small umbrae viewed and inclination of the field to the line-of-sight was determined for the photosphere and transition region. The distribution of the magnetic field over the sunspot and variation of the line-of-sight gradient are discussed, as are the magnitudes and gradients of the photospheric field across the penumbral-photospheric boundaries.

  5. Variations and Regularities in the Hemispheric Distributions in Sunspot Groups of Various Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng-Xin

    2018-05-01

    The present study investigates the variations and regularities in the distributions in sunspot groups (SGs) of various classes in the northern and southern hemispheres from Solar Cycles (SCs) 12 to 23. Here, we use the separation scheme that was introduced by Gao, Li, and Li ( Solar Phys. 292, 124, 2017), which is based on A/U ( A is the corrected area of the SG, and U is the corrected umbral area of the SG), in order to separate SGs into simple SGs (A/U ≤ 4.5) and complex SGs (A/U > 6.2). The time series of Greenwich photoheliographic results from 1875 to 1976 (corresponding to complete SCs 12 - 20) and Debrecen photoheliographic data during the period 1974 - 2015 (corresponding to complete SCs 21 - 23) are used to show the distributions of simple and complex SGs in the northern and southern hemispheres. The main results we obtain are reported as follows: i) the larger of the maximum annual simple SG numbers in the two hemispheres and the larger of the maximum annual complex SG numbers in the two hemispheres occur in different hemispheres during SCs 12, 14, 18, and 19; ii) the relative changing trends of two curves - cumulative SG numbers in the northern and southern hemispheres - for simple SGs are different from those for complex SGs during SCs 12, 14, 18, and 21; and iii) there are discrepancies between the dominant hemispheres of simple and complex SGs for SCs 12, 14, 18, and 21.

  6. Historical evidence concerning the Sun: interpretation of sunspot records during the telescopic and pretelescopic eras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, F.R.

    1990-01-01

    The value of sunspot observations in investigating solar activity trends - mainly on the centennial to millennial timescale - is considered in some detail. It is shown that although observations made since the mid-eighteenth century are in general very reliable indicators of solar activity, older data are of dubious quality and utility. The sunspot record in both the pretelescopic and early telescopic periods appears to be confused by serious data artefacts. (author)

  7. SUNSPOT ROTATION AS A DRIVER OF MAJOR SOLAR ERUPTIONS IN THE NOAA ACTIVE REGION 12158

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vemareddy, P.; Ravindra, B. [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore-560034 (India); Cheng, X., E-mail: vemareddy@iiap.res.in [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing-210023 (China)

    2016-09-20

    We studied the development conditions of sigmoid structure under the influence of the magnetic non-potential characteristics of a rotating sunspot in the active region (AR) 12158. Vector magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager and coronal EUV observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal that the erupting inverse-S sigmoid had roots at the location of the rotating sunspot. The sunspot rotates at a rate of 0°–5° h{sup −1} with increasing trend in the first half followed by a decrease. The time evolution of many non-potential parameters had a good correspondence with the sunspot rotation. The evolution of the AR magnetic structure is approximated by a time series of force-free equilibria. The non-linear force-free field magnetic structure around the sunspot manifests the observed sigmoid structure. Field lines from the sunspot periphery constitute the body of the sigmoid and those from the interior overlie the sigmoid, similar to a flux rope structure. While the sunspot was rotating, two major coronal mass ejection eruptions occurred in the AR. During the first (second) event, the coronal current concentrations were enhanced (degraded), consistent with the photospheric net vertical current; however, magnetic energy was released during both cases. The analysis results suggest that the magnetic connections of the sigmoid are driven by the slow motion of sunspot rotation, which transforms to a highly twisted flux rope structure in a dynamical scenario. Exceeding the critical twist in the flux rope probably leads to the loss of equilibrium, thus triggering the onset of the two eruptions.

  8. Evolution of the Sunspot Number and Solar Wind B Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, Edward W.; Herbst, Konstantin

    2018-03-01

    The past two decades have witnessed significant changes in our knowledge of long-term solar and solar wind activity. The sunspot number time series (1700-present) developed by Rudolf Wolf during the second half of the 19th century was revised and extended by the group sunspot number series (1610-1995) of Hoyt and Schatten during the 1990s. The group sunspot number is significantly lower than the Wolf series before ˜1885. An effort from 2011-2015 to understand and remove differences between these two series via a series of workshops had the unintended consequence of prompting several alternative constructions of the sunspot number. Thus it has been necessary to expand and extend the sunspot number reconciliation process. On the solar wind side, after a decade of controversy, an ISSI International Team used geomagnetic and sunspot data to obtain a high-confidence time series of the solar wind magnetic field strength (B) from 1750-present that can be compared with two independent long-term (> ˜600 year) series of annual B-values based on cosmogenic nuclides. In this paper, we trace the twists and turns leading to our current understanding of long-term solar and solar wind activity.

  9. A New Revision of the Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record Incorporates Recent Research into Proxies of Sunspot Darkening and the Sunspot Number Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coddington, O.; Lean, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Baranyi, T.; Snow, M. A.; Kopp, G.; Richard, E. C.; Lindholm, C.

    2017-12-01

    An operational climate data record (CDR) of total and spectral solar irradiance became available in November 2015 as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information Climate Data Record Program. The data record, which is updated quarterly, is available from 1610 to the present as yearly-average values and from 1882 to the present as monthly- and daily-averages, with associated time and wavelength-dependent uncertainties. It was developed jointly by the University of Colorado at Boulder's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and the Naval Research Laboratory, and, together with the source code and supporting documentation, is available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/. In the Solar Irradiance CDR, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) are estimated from models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions arising from bright faculae and dark sunspots on the solar disk. The models are constructed using linear regression of proxies of solar sunspot and facular features with the approximately decade-long irradiance observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment. A new revision of this data record was recently released in an ongoing effort to reduce solar irradiance uncertainties in two ways. First, the sunspot darkening proxy was revised using a new cross calibration of the current sunspot region observations made by the Solar Observing Optical Network with the historical records of the Royal Greenwich Observatory. This implementation affects modeled irradiances from 1882 - 1978. Second, the impact of a revised record of sunspot number by the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations center on modeled irradiances was assessed. This implementation provides two different reconstructions of historical, yearly-averaged irradiances from 1610-1881. Additionally, we show new, preliminary results that demonstrate improvements in modeled TSI by using

  10. Indel-II region deletion sizes in the white spot syndrome virus genome correlate with shrimp disease outbreaks in southern Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tran Thi Tuyet, H.; Zwart, M.P.; Phuong, N.T.; Oanh, D.T.H.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Vlak, J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Sequence comparisons of the genomes of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) strains have identified regions containing variable-length insertions/deletions (i.e. indels). Indel-I and Indel-II, positioned between open reading frames (ORFs) 14/15 and 23/24, respectively, are the largest and the most

  11. The topside ionosphere above Arecibo at equinox during sunspot maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, G.J.

    1980-01-01

    The coupled time-dependent 0 + and H + continuity and momentum equations and 0 + , H + and electron heat balance equations are solved simultaneously within the L = 1.4 (Arecibo) magnetic flux tube between an altitude of 120 km and the equatorial plane. The results of the calculations are used in a study of the topside ionosphere above Arecibo at equinox during sunspot maximum. Magnetically quiet conditions are assumed. The results of the calculations show that the L = 1.4 magnetic flux tube becomes saturated from an arbitrary state within 2-3 days. During the day the ion content of the magnetic flux tube consists mainly of 0 + whereas 0 + and H + are both important during the night. There is an altitude region in the topside ionosphere during the day where ion-counterstreaming occurs with H + flowing downward and 0 + flowing upward. The conditions causing this ion-counterstreaming are discussed. There is a net chemical gain of H + at the higher altitudes. This H + diffuses both upwards and downwards whilst 0 + diffuses upwards from its solar e.u.v. production source which is most important at the lower altitudes. During the night the calculated 0 + and H + temperatures are very nearly equal whereas during the day there are occasions when the H + temperature exceeds the 0 - temperature by about 300 K. (author)

  12. ENHANCEMENT OF A SUNSPOT LIGHT WALL WITH EXTERNAL DISTURBANCES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Shuhong; Zhang, Jun [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Erdélyi, Robert, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2016-12-20

    Based on the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations, we study the response of a solar sunspot light wall to external disturbances. A flare occurrence near the light wall caused material to erupt from the lower solar atmosphere into the corona. Some material falls back to the solar surface and hits the light bridge (i.e., the base of the light wall), then sudden brightenings appear at the wall base followed by the rise of wall top, leading to an increase of the wall height. Once the brightness of the wall base fades, the height of the light wall begins to decrease. Five hours later, another nearby flare takes place, and a bright channel is formed that extends from the flare toward the light bridge. Although no obvious material flow along the bright channel is found, some ejected material is conjectured to reach the light bridge. Subsequently, the wall base brightens and the wall height begins to increase again. Once more, when the brightness of the wall base decays, the wall top fluctuates to lower heights. We suggest, based on the observed cases, that the interaction of falling material and ejected flare material with the light wall results in the brightenings of wall base and causes the height of the light wall to increase. Our results reveal that the light wall can be not only powered by the linkage of p -mode from below the photosphere, but may also be enhanced by external disturbances, such as falling material.

  13. Observations of Running Penumbral Waves Emerging in a Sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priya, T. G.; Wenda, Cao; Jiangtao, Su; Jie, Chen; Xinjie, Mao; Yuanyong, Deng; Robert, Erdélyi

    2018-01-01

    We present results from the investigation of 5 minute umbral oscillations in a single-polarity sunspot of active region NOAA 12132. The spectra of TiO, Hα, and 304 Å are used for corresponding atmospheric heights from the photosphere to lower corona. Power spectrum analysis at the formation height of Hα – 0.6 Å to the Hα center resulted in the detection of 5 minute oscillation signals in intensity interpreted as running waves outside the umbral center, mostly with vertical magnetic field inclination >15°. A phase-speed filter is used to extract the running wave signals with speed v ph > 4 km s‑1, from the time series of Hα – 0.4 Å images, and found twenty-four 3 minute umbral oscillatory events in a duration of one hour. Interestingly, the initial emergence of the 3 minute umbral oscillatory events are noticed closer to or at umbral boundaries. These 3 minute umbral oscillatory events are observed for the first time as propagating from a fraction of preceding running penumbral waves (RPWs). These fractional wavefronts rapidly separate from RPWs and move toward the umbral center, wherein they expand radially outwards suggesting the beginning of a new umbral oscillatory event. We found that most of these umbral oscillatory events develop further into RPWs. We speculate that the waveguides of running waves are twisted in spiral structures and hence the wavefronts are first seen at high latitudes of umbral boundaries and later at lower latitudes of the umbral center.

  14. On the Theory of Sunspots Proposed by Signor Kirchoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Secchi A.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Eileen Reeves (Department of Comparative Literature, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, 08544 and Mary Posani (Department of French and Italian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, 43221 provide a translation of Father Pietro Angelo Secchi’s classic work “ Secchi A. Sulla Teoria Delle Macchie Solari: Proposta dal sig. Kirchoff” as it appeared in Bullettino Meteorologico dell’ Osservatorio del Collegio Romano , 31 January 1864, v.3(4, 1–4. This was the first treatise to propose a partic- ulate photosphere floating on the gaseous body of the Sun. The idea would dominate astrophysical thought for the next 50 years. Secchi appears to have drafted the article, as a response to Gustav Kirchhoff’s proposal, echoing early Galilean ideas, that sunspots represented clouds which floated above the photosphere. Other than presenting a new solar model, noteworthy aspects of this work include Secchi’s appropriate insistence that materials do not emit the same light at the same temperature and his gentle rebuke of Kirchhoff relative to commenting on questions of astronomy.

  15. Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, S

    2017-10-01

    Since 1978, a series of papers in the literature have claimed to find a significant association between sunspot activity and the timing of influenza pandemics. This paper examines these analyses, and attempts to recreate the three most recent statistical analyses by Ertel (1994), Tapping et al. (2001), and Yeung (2006), which all have purported to find a significant relationship between sunspot numbers and pandemic influenza. As will be discussed, each analysis had errors in the data. In addition, in each analysis arbitrary selections or assumptions were also made, and the authors did not assess the robustness of their analyses to changes in those arbitrary assumptions. Varying the arbitrary assumptions to other, equally valid, assumptions negates the claims of significance. Indeed, an arbitrary selection made in one of the analyses appears to have resulted in almost maximal apparent significance; changing it only slightly yields a null result. This analysis applies statistically rigorous methodology to examine the purported sunspot/pandemic link, using more statistically powerful un-binned analysis methods, rather than relying on arbitrarily binned data. The analyses are repeated using both the Wolf and Group sunspot numbers. In all cases, no statistically significant evidence of any association was found. However, while the focus in this particular analysis was on the purported relationship of influenza pandemics to sunspot activity, the faults found in the past analyses are common pitfalls; inattention to analysis reproducibility and robustness assessment are common problems in the sciences, that are unfortunately not noted often enough in review.

  16. The use of solar faculae in studies of the sunspot cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, G.M.; Evans, R.

    1980-01-01

    Comparison of the long-term variation of photospheric faculae areas with that of sunspots shows that studies of faculae provide both complementary and supplementary information on the behaviour of the solar cycle. Detailed studies of the development of sunspots with respect to faculae show that there is a high degree of order over much of a given cycle, but marked differences from cycle to cycle. Within a cycle the relationship between spot and faculae areas appears to be similar for the N and S solar hemispheres, and over the early stages of a cycle it is directly related to the magnitude of the maximum sunspot number subsequently attained in that cycle. This result may well have predictive applications, and formulae are given relating the peak sunspot number to simple parameters derived from this early developmental stage. Full application to the current cycle 21 is denied due to the cessation of the Greenwich daily photoheliographic measurements, but use of the cruder weekly data suggests a maximum smoothed sunspot number of 150 +- 22. The effects of the incompatibility of the spot and faculae data, in that faculae are unobservable over a large fraction of the solar disc and also do not always develop associated spots, have been examined in a detailed study of two cycles and shown not to vitiate the results. (orig.)

  17. MEASUREMENTS OF THE ABSORPTION AND SCATTERING CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE INTERACTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES WITH SUNSPOTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Hui; Chou, Dean-Yi

    2016-01-01

    The solar acoustic waves are modified by the interaction with sunspots. The interaction can be treated as a scattering problem: an incident wave propagating toward a sunspot is scattered by the sunspot into different modes. The absorption cross section and scattering cross section are two important parameters in the scattering problem. In this study, we use the wavefunction of the scattered wave, measured with a deconvolution method, to compute the absorption cross section σ ab and the scattering cross section σ sc for the radial order n = 0–5 for two sunspots, NOAA 11084 and NOAA 11092. In the computation of the cross sections, the random noise and dissipation in the measured acoustic power are corrected. For both σ ab and σ sc , the value of NOAA 11092 is greater than that of NOAA 11084, but their overall n dependence is similar: decreasing with n . The ratio of σ ab of NOAA 11092 to that of NOAA 11084 approximately equals the ratio of sunspot radii for all n , while the ratio of σ sc of the two sunspots is greater than the ratio of sunspot radii and increases with n . This suggests that σ ab is approximately proportional to the sunspot radius, while the dependence of σ sc on radius is faster than the linear increase.

  18. MEASUREMENTS OF THE ABSORPTION AND SCATTERING CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE INTERACTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES WITH SUNSPOTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Hui [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 200012 (China); Chou, Dean-Yi, E-mail: chou@phys.nthu.edu.tw [Physics Department, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

    2016-05-01

    The solar acoustic waves are modified by the interaction with sunspots. The interaction can be treated as a scattering problem: an incident wave propagating toward a sunspot is scattered by the sunspot into different modes. The absorption cross section and scattering cross section are two important parameters in the scattering problem. In this study, we use the wavefunction of the scattered wave, measured with a deconvolution method, to compute the absorption cross section σ {sub ab} and the scattering cross section σ {sub sc} for the radial order n = 0–5 for two sunspots, NOAA 11084 and NOAA 11092. In the computation of the cross sections, the random noise and dissipation in the measured acoustic power are corrected. For both σ {sub ab} and σ {sub sc}, the value of NOAA 11092 is greater than that of NOAA 11084, but their overall n dependence is similar: decreasing with n . The ratio of σ {sub ab} of NOAA 11092 to that of NOAA 11084 approximately equals the ratio of sunspot radii for all n , while the ratio of σ {sub sc} of the two sunspots is greater than the ratio of sunspot radii and increases with n . This suggests that σ {sub ab} is approximately proportional to the sunspot radius, while the dependence of σ {sub sc} on radius is faster than the linear increase.

  19. On the determination of heliographic positions and rotation velocities of sunspots. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balthasar, H.

    1983-01-01

    Using sunspot positions of small sunspots observed at Debrecen and Locarno as well as positions of recurrent sunspots taken from the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (1940-1976) the influence of the Wilson depression on the rotation velocities was investigated. It was found that the Wilson depression can be determined by minimizing errors of the rotation velocities or minimizing the differences of rotation velocities determined from disk passages and central meridian passages. The Wilson depressions found were between 765 km and 2500 km for the first sample while they were between 0 km and several 1000 km for the second sample. The averaged Wilson depression for the second sample is between 500 km and 965 km depending on the reduction method. A dependence of the Wilson depression on the age of the spots investigated seems not to exist. (orig.)

  20. Relationship between geomagnetic classes’ activity phases and their occurrence during the sunspot cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Ouattara

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Four well known geomagnetic classes of activity such as quiet days activity, fluctuating activity, recurrent activity
    and shock activity time occurrences have been determined not only by using time profile of sunspot number
    Rz but also by using aa index values.
    We show that recurrent wind stream activity and fluctuating activity occur in opposite phase and slow solar wind
    activity during minimum phase and shock activity at the maximum phase.
    It emerges from this study that fluctuating activity precedes the sunspot cycle by π/2 and the latter also precedes
    recurrent activity by π/2. Thus in the majority the activities do not happen at random; the sunspot cycle starts
    with quiet days activity, continues with fluctuating activity and during its maximum phase arrives shock activity.
    The descending phase is characterized by the manifestation of recurrent wind stream activity.

  1. Outbreaks and Investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Who Gets Fungal Infections? People living with HIV/AIDS Organ Transplant Patients Cancer Patients Hospitalized Patients Stem Cell Transplant Patients Medications that Weaken Your Immune System Outbreaks Rhizopus Investigation CDC at Work Global Fungal Diseases Cryptococcal Meningitis ...

  2. Investigating Listeria Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Dr. Emily Cartwright, Infectious Disease fellow at Emory University and former EIS Officer with CDC’s Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases discusses foodborne Listeria outbreaks.

  3. National Outbreak Reporting System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) is a web-based platform designed to support reporting to CDC by local, state, and territorial health departments in the...

  4. Possibility to explain the temperature distribution in sunspots by an anisotropic heat transfer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eschrich, K O; Krause, F [Akademie der Wissenschaften der DDR, Potsdam. Zentralinstitut fuer Astrophysik

    1977-01-01

    Numerical solutions of a heat conduction problem in an anisotropic medium are used for a discussion of the possibility to explain the temperature distribution in sunspots and their environment. The anisotropy is assumed being due to the strong magnetic field in sunspots and the region below. This magnetic field forces the convection to take an anisotropic structure (two-dimensional turbulence) and thus the region gets anisotropic conduction properties, on the average. The discussion shows that the observed temperature profiles can be explained in the case the depth of the region of anisotropy is about as large as the diameter of the spot or larger.

  5. Outflow of chromospheric emission features from the rim of a sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.-Y.

    1973-01-01

    In viewing a 16 mm movie made from a time sequence of spectroheliograms, some of these emission features are found to move outward from the rim of the sunspot until they are eventually lost in the small plage. There are two interpretations for the streaming of the magnetic features. It is possible that kinks in the line of force propagate along a horizontal extension of the penumbral magnetic field. Alternatively, fragments of the sunspot magnetic field are carried away by the photospheric velocity field.

  6. Empirical mode decomposition and long-range correlation analysis of sunspot time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Yu; Leung, Yee

    2010-01-01

    Sunspots, which are the best known and most variable features of the solar surface, affect our planet in many ways. The number of sunspots during a period of time is highly variable and arouses strong research interest. When multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is employed to study the fractal properties and long-range correlation of the sunspot series, some spurious crossover points might appear because of the periodic and quasi-periodic trends in the series. However many cycles of solar activities can be reflected by the sunspot time series. The 11-year cycle is perhaps the most famous cycle of the sunspot activity. These cycles pose problems for the investigation of the scaling behavior of sunspot time series. Using different methods to handle the 11-year cycle generally creates totally different results. Using MF-DFA, Movahed and co-workers employed Fourier truncation to deal with the 11-year cycle and found that the series is long-range anti-correlated with a Hurst exponent, H, of about 0.12. However, Hu and co-workers proposed an adaptive detrending method for the MF-DFA and discovered long-range correlation characterized by H≈0.74. In an attempt to get to the bottom of the problem in the present paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a data-driven adaptive method, is applied to first extract the components with different dominant frequencies. MF-DFA is then employed to study the long-range correlation of the sunspot time series under the influence of these components. On removing the effects of these periods, the natural long-range correlation of the sunspot time series can be revealed. With the removal of the 11-year cycle, a crossover point located at around 60 months is discovered to be a reasonable point separating two different time scale ranges, H≈0.72 and H≈1.49. And on removing all cycles longer than 11 years, we have H≈0.69 and H≈0.28. The three cycle-removing methods—Fourier truncation, adaptive detrending and the

  7. CHROMOSPHERIC SUNSPOTS IN THE MILLIMETER RANGE AS OBSERVED BY THE NOBEYAMA RADIOHELIOGRAPH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwai, Kazumasa [National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Koganei 184-8795, Tokyo (Japan); Koshiishi, Hideki [Aerospace Research and Development Directorate, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Tsukuba 305-8505 (Japan); Shibasaki, Kiyoto [Nobeyama Solar Radio Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Minamimaki, Nagano 384-1305 (Japan); Nozawa, Satoshi; Miyawaki, Shun; Yoneya, Takuro, E-mail: kazumasa.iwai@nict.go.jp [Department of Science, Ibaraki University, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512 (Japan)

    2016-01-10

    We investigate the upper chromosphere and the transition region of the sunspot umbra using the radio brightness temperature at 34 GHz (corresponding to 8.8 mm observations) as observed by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio free–free emission in the longer millimeter range is generated around the transition region, and its brightness temperature yields the region's temperature and density distribution. We use the NoRH data at 34 GHz by applying the Steer-CLEAN image synthesis. These data and the analysis method enable us to investigate the chromospheric structures in the longer millimeter range with high spatial resolution and sufficient visibilities. We also perform simultaneous observations of one sunspot using the NoRH and the Nobeyama 45 m telescope operating at 115 GHz. We determine that 115 GHz emission mainly originates from the lower chromosphere while 34 GHz emission mainly originates from the upper chromosphere and transition region. These observational results are consistent with the radio emission characteristics estimated from current atmospheric models of the chromosphere. On the other hand, the observed brightness temperature of the umbral region is almost the same as that of the quiet region. This result is inconsistent with current sunspot models, which predict a considerably higher brightness temperature of the sunspot umbra at 34 GHz. This inconsistency suggests that the temperature of the region at which the 34 GHz radio emission becomes optically thick should be lower than that predicted by the models.

  8. On the evolution of magnetic and velocity fields of an originating sunspot group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bachmann, G.

    1978-01-01

    Magnetographic measurements were made to derive longitudinal magnetic field strengths, line-of-sight velocities and the brightness distribution in an originating sunspot group. These results and photographs of the group are used to compare the evaluation of a relatively simple active region with our present ideas about the evolution of active regions in general. We found that the total magnetic flux increased from about 4 to 20x10 20 Mx over three days. The downward flow of gas in regions with stronger magnetic fields is formed only after the magnetic field has already been bipolar for two days. The maximum velocity always occurred in the main spots of the preceding and the subsequent parts of the sunspot group. Transformation into a flow pattern, which looks like Evershed motion, is observed in the main preceding sunspot after the formation of the penumbra. The generation of new active regions by concentration and amplification of magnetic fields, under the action of supergranulation flow in photospheric layers, cannot play an important role. On the contrary, the behaviour of the active region is in agreement with the conception of rising flux tubes, out of which the gas flows down. Our observations confirm that a magnetic field strength, leading to the generation of sunspots, is attained earlier in the preceding part of the originating active region than in its subsequent part. A series of subflares occurred in the active region, when short-lived small magnetic structure elements emerged in the larger bipolar magnetic field. (author)

  9. Flow and magnetic field properties in the trailing sunspots of active region NOAA 12396

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Verma, M.; Denker, C.; Boehm, F.; Balthasar, H.; Fischer, C.E.; Kuckein, C.; Gonzalez, N.B.; Berkefeld, T.; Collados Vera, M.; Diercke, A.; Feller, A.; Gonzalez Manrique, S. J.; Hofmann, A.; Lagg, A.; Nicklas, H.; Orozco Suárez, D.; Pator Yabar, A.; Rezaei, R.; Schlichenmaier, R.; Schmidt, D.; Schmidt, W.; Sigwarth, M.; Sobotka, Michal; Solanki, S.K.; Soltau, D.; Staude, J.; Strassmeier, K.G.; Volkmer, R.; von der Lühe, O.; Waldmann, T.A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 337, č. 10 (2016), s. 1090-1098 ISSN 0004-6337. [Dynamic Sun - Exploring the Many Facets of Solar Eruptive Events. Potsdam, 26.10. 2015 -29.10. 2015 ] Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : Sun * magnetic fields * sunspots Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 0.916, year: 2016

  10. Corona magnetic field over sunspots estimated by m-wave observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Masahiro

    1974-01-01

    The shape of the magnetic field in corona was estimated from the observation of the type I storm occurred in the last decade of August, 1971. It was found from the observation with a 160 MHz interferometer at Mt. Nobeyama that at most three storm sources, which are called radio wave source, were produced. The radio wave sources were fixed above sunspots. The height of the radio wave sources was estimated to be 0.45 R from the photosphere. The sunspots under the radio wave sources can be classified to four sub-groups. Weakening of the magnetic field on the photosphere was found from the reduction of the area of some sub-group. The relation between the activity of type I storm and the intensity of the magnetic field of sunspots is qualitatively suggested. It is considered that the radio wave sources and the sunspots were connected by common magnetic force lines. The probable magnetic field in corona was presumed and is shown in a figure. An interesting point is that the direction of magnetic force lines inclined by about 30 0 outward to the vertical line to the photosphere surface. (Kato, T.)

  11. Physical Properties of Umbral Dots Observed in Sunspots: A Hinode Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Rahul; Mathew, Shibu K.

    2018-04-01

    Umbral dots (UDs) are small-scale bright features observed in the umbral part of sunspots and pores. It is well established that they are manifestations of magnetoconvection phenomena inside umbrae. We study the physical properties of UDs in different sunspots and their dependence on decay rate and filling factor. We have selected high-resolution, G-band continuum filtergrams of seven sunspots from Hinode to study their physical properties. We have also used Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) continuum images to estimate the decay rate of selected sunspots. An identification and tracking algorithm was developed to identify the UDs in time sequences. The statistical analysis of UDs exhibits an averaged maximum intensity and effective diameter of 0.26 I_{QS} and 270 km. Furthermore, the lifetime, horizontal speed, trajectory length, and displacement length (birth-death distance) of UDs are 8.19 minutes, 0.5 km s-1, 284 km, and 155 km, respectively. We also find a positive correlation between intensity-diameter, intensity-lifetime, and diameter-lifetime of UDs. However, UD properties do not show any significant relation with the decay rate or filling factor.

  12. Predicting Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24 Nipa J Bhatt ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Key words. Sunspot number—precursor prediction technique—geo- magnetic activity index aa. 1. Introduction. Predictions of solar and geomagnetic activities are important for various purposes, including the operation of low-earth orbiting satellites, operation of power grids on. Earth, and satellite communication systems.

  13. COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Dun, G. T. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216 (China); Li, B., E-mail: wooden@escience.cn [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University at Weihai, Weihai 264209 (China)

    2016-01-15

    The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

  14. Fine structure in sunspots. IV. Penumbral grains in speckle reconstucted images

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sobotka, Michal; Suetterlin, P.

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 380, č. 2 (2001), s. 714-718 ISSN 0004-6361 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK2043105; GA AV ČR IAA3003903 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1003909 Keywords : sun * sunspots Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 2.790, year: 2000

  15. Preliminary results from the orbiting solar observatory 8: Transition-zone dynamics over a sunspot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruner, E.C. Jr.; Chipman, E.G.; Lites, B.W.; Rottman, G.J.; Shine, R.A.; Athay, R.G.; White, O.R.

    1976-01-01

    The University of Colorado experiment aboard OSO-8 observed the C IV 1548 A line in the bright plume over a sunspot. Transient redshifts at 5 minute intervals were studied, but the expected phenomena associated with simple Alfven wave effects were not observed

  16. Temperature mapping of sunspots and pores from speckle reconstructed three colour photometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sütterlin, P.; Wiehr, E.

    1998-01-01

    The two-dimensional temperature distribution in a highly structured sunspot and in two small umbrae is determined from a three-colour photometry in narrow spectral continua. Disturbing influences from the earth’s atmosphere are removed by speckle masking techniques, yielding a spatial resolution

  17. Towards a first detailed reconstruction of sunspot information over the last 150 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, Laure; Clette, Frédéric

    2013-04-01

    With four centuries of solar evolution, the International Sunspot Number (SSN) forms the longest solar time series currently available. It provides an essential reference for understanding and quantifying how the solar output has varied over decades and centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. For such a quantitative use, this unique time-series must be closely monitored for any possible biases and drifts. This is the main objective of the Sunspot Workshops organized jointly by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) since 2010. Here, we will report about some recent outcomes of past workshops, like diagnostics of scaling errors and their proposed corrections, or the recent disagreement between the sunspot sumber and other solar indices like the 10.7cm radio flux. Our most recent analyses indicate that while part of this divergence may be due to a calibration drift in the SSN, it also results from an intrinsic change in the global magnetic parameters of sunspots and solar active regions, suggesting a possible transition to a new activity regime. Going beyond the SSN series, in the framework of the SOTERIA, TOSCA and SOLID projects, we produced a survey of all existing catalogs providing detailed sunspot information and we also located different primary solar images and drawing collections that can be exploitable to complement the existing catalogs (COMESEP project). These are first steps towards the construction of a multi-parametric time series of multiple sunspot group properties over at least the last 150 years, allowing to reconstruct and extend the current 1-D SSN series. By bringing new spatial, morphological and evolutionary information, such a data set should bring major advances for the modeling of the solar dynamo and solar irradiance. We will present here the current status of this work. The catalog now extends over the last 3 cycles (Lefevre & Clette 2011

  18. Statistics of the largest sunspot and facular areas per solar cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, D.M.; Kabasakal Tulunay, Y.

    1979-01-01

    The statistics of extreme values is used to investigate the statistical properties of the largest areas sunspots and photospheric faculae per solar cycle. The largest values of the synodic-solar-rotation mean areas of umbrae, whole spots and faculae, which have been recorded for nine solar cycles, are each shown to comply with the general form of the extreme value probability function. Empirical expressions are derived for the three extreme value populations from which the characteristic statistical parameters, namely the mode, median, mean and standard deviation, can be calculated for each population. These three extreme value populations are also used to find the expected ranges of the extreme areas in a group of solar cycles as a function of the number of cycles in the group. The extreme areas of umbrae and whole spots have a dispersion comparable to that found by Siscoe for the extreme values of sunspot number, whereas the extreme areas of faculae have a smaller dispersion which is comparable to that found by Siscoe for the largest geomagnetic storm per solar cycle. The expected range of the largest sunspot area per solar cycle for a group of one hundred cycles appears to be inconsistent with the existence of the prolonged periods of sunspot minima that have been inferred from the historical information on solar variability. This inconsistency supports the contention that there are temporal changes of solar-cycle statistics during protracted periods of sunspot minima (or maxima). Indeed, without such temporal changes, photospheric faculae should have been continually observable throughout the lifetime of the Sun. (orig.)

  19. Planning for smallpox outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Neil M.; Keeling, Matt J.; John Edmunds, W.; Gani, Raymond; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Anderson, Roy M.; Leach, Steve

    2003-10-01

    Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

  20. Responding to Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-04-27

    In this podcast, a team of CDC specialists travels to Uganda and tracks the source of an Ebola outbreak where CDC scientists are studying bats for clues to the Ebola mystery.  Created: 4/27/2009 by National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (NCZVED).   Date Released: 4/27/2009.

  1. Investigating Listeria Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-01-04

    Dr. Emily Cartwright, Infectious Disease fellow at Emory University and former EIS Officer with CDC’s Division of Foodborne, Waterborne, and Environmental Diseases discusses foodborne Listeria outbreaks.  Created: 1/4/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 1/8/2013.

  2. Foodborne Norovirus Outbreaks

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-09-17

    Dr. Aron Hall, a CDC epidemiologist specializing in noroviruses, discusses foodborne norovirus outbreaks.  Created: 9/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID); National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/17/2012.

  3. Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2018-04-01

    We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

  4. Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Markel, Robert S.; Thompson, Michael J. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Leamon, Robert J.; Malanushenko, Anna V. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Davey, Alisdair R. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Howe, Rachel [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Krista, Larisza D. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80205 (United States); Cirtain, Jonathan W. [Marshall Space Flight Center, Code ZP13, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Gurman, Joseph B.; Pesnell, William D., E-mail: mscott@ucar.edu [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

  5. The Sunspot Number and beyond : reconstructing detailed solar information over centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, L.

    2014-12-01

    With four centuries of solar evolution, the International Sunspot Number (SSN) forms the longest solar time series currently available. It provides an essential reference for understanding and quantifying how the solar output has varied over decades and centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. Because of its importance, this unique time-series must be closely monitored for any possible biases and drifts. Here, we report about recent disagreements between solar indices, for example the sunspot sumber and the 10.7cm radio flux. Recent analyses indicate that while part of this divergence may be due to a calibration drift in the SSN, it also results from an intrinsic change in the global magnetic parameters of sunspots and solar active regions, suggesting a possible transition to a new activity regime. Going beyond the SSN series, in the framework of the TOSCA (www.cost-tosca.eu/) and SOLID (projects.pmodwrc.ch/solid/) projects, we produced a survey of all existing catalogs providing detailed sunspot information (Lefevre & Clette, 2014:10.1007/s11207-012-0184-5) and we also located different primary solar images and drawing collections that can be exploitable to complement the existing catalogs. These are first steps towards the construction of a multi-parametric time series of multiple sunspot and sunspot group properties over more than a century, allowing to reconstruct and extend the current 1-D SSN series. By bringing new spatial, morphological and evolutionary information, such a data set should bring major advances for the modeling of the solar dynamo and solar irradiance. We will present here the current status of this work. The preliminary version catalog now extends over the last 150 years. It makes use of data from DPD (http://fenyi.solarobs.unideb.hu/DPD/index.html), from the Uccle Solar Equatorial Table (USET:http://sidc.oma.be/uset/) operated by the Royal Obeservatory of Belgium, the Greenwich

  6. Dynamics of Subarcsecond Bright Dots in the Transition Region above Sunspots and Their Relation to Penumbral Micro-jets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanta, Tanmoy; Banerjee, Dipankar [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore 560034 (India); Tian, Hui [School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University (China); Schanche, Nicole, E-mail: tsamanta@iiap.res.in, E-mail: huitian@pku.edu.cn, E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in, E-mail: ns81@st-andrews.ac.uk [University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-01

    Recent high-resolution observations have revealed that subarcsecond bright dots (BDs) with sub-minute lifetimes appear ubiquitously in the transition region (TR) above sunspot penumbra. The presence of penumbral micro-jets (PMJs) in the chromosphere was previously reported. It was proposed that both the PMJs and BDs are formed due to a magnetic reconnection process and may play an important role in heating of the penumbra. Using simultaneous observations of the chromosphere from the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board Hinode and observations of the TR from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph , we study the dynamics of BDs and their relation to PMJs. We find two types of BDs, one that is related to PMJs, and another that does not show any visible dynamics in the SOT Ca ii H images. From a statistical analysis we show that these two types have different properties. The BDs that are related to PMJs always appear at the top of the PMJs, the vast majority of which show inward motion and originate before the generation of the PMJs. These results may indicate that the reconnection occurs at the lower coronal/TR height and initiates PMJs at the chromosphere. This formation mechanism is in contrast with the formation of PMJs by reconnection in the (upper) photosphere between differently inclined fields.

  7. A Relationship Between the Solar Rotation and Activity Analysed by Tracing Sunspot Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruždjak, Domagoj; Brajša, Roman; Sudar, Davor; Skokić, Ivica; Poljančić Beljan, Ivana

    2017-12-01

    The sunspot position published in the data bases of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR), the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA), and of the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) in the period 1874 to 2016 were used to calculate yearly values of the solar differential-rotation parameters A and B. These differential-rotation parameters were compared with the solar-activity level. We found that the Sun rotates more differentially at the minimum than at the maximum of activity during the epoch 1977 - 2016. An inverse correlation between equatorial rotation and solar activity was found using the recently revised sunspot number. The secular decrease of the equatorial rotation rate that accompanies the increase in activity stopped in the last part of the twentieth century. It was noted that when a significant peak in equatorial rotation velocity is observed during activity minimum, the next maximum is weaker than the previous one.

  8. Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: a look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.M.

    1982-02-01

    Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated

  9. Fully Automated Sunspot Detection and Classification Using SDO HMI Imagery in MATLAB

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    initiating the java program scripted to communicate with the SOON telescope used for continual observation of the sun. The SOON telescope is used at...proximity of spots refers to the angular separation between different spots that could make up a group. The area of each sunspot means the total area...degrees and the different magnetic polarities of each spot being considered. For a spot pair that has the same polarity and small angular separation

  10. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  11. SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.; Longcope, Dana W. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Senkpeil, Ryan R. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Tlatov, Andrey G. [Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk 357700 (Russian Federation); Nagovitsyn, Yury A. [Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg 196140 (Russian Federation); Pevtsov, Alexei A. [National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Chapman, Gary A.; Cookson, Angela M. [San Fernando Observatory, Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, Northridge, CA 91330 (United States); Yeates, Anthony R. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Watson, Fraser T. [National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Balmaceda, Laura A. [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina); DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Martens, Petrus C. H., E-mail: munoz@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

    2015-02-10

    In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizes the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)

  12. ASYMMETRIC SUNSPOT ACTIVITY AND THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT SHEET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Robbrecht, E.

    2011-01-01

    Observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have suggested a statistical tendency for the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) to be shifted a few degrees southward of the heliographic equator during the period 1965-2010, particularly in the years near sunspot minimum. Using potential-field source-surface extrapolations and photospheric flux-transport simulations, we demonstrate that this southward displacement follows from Joy's law and the observed hemispheric asymmetry in the sunspot numbers, with activity being stronger in the southern (northern) hemisphere during the declining (rising) phase of cycles 20-23. The hemispheric asymmetry gives rise to an axisymmetric quadrupole field, whose equatorial zone has the sign of the leading-polarity flux in the dominant hemisphere; during the last four cycles, the polarity of the IMF around the equator thus tended to match that of the north polar field both before and after polar field reversal. However, large fluctuations are introduced by the nonaxisymmetric field components, which depend on the longitudinal distribution of sunspot activity in either hemisphere. Consistent with this model, the HCS showed an average northward displacement during cycle 19, when the 'usual' alternation was reversed and the northern hemisphere became far more active than the southern hemisphere during the declining phase of the cycle. We propose a new method for determining the north-south displacement of the HCS from coronal streamer observations.

  13. SOLAR CYCLE 24: CURIOUS CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE NUMBERS OF SUNSPOT GROUP TYPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Here, we analyze different sunspot group (SG) behaviors from the points of view of both the sunspot counts (SSCs) and the number of SGs, in four categories, for the time period of 1982 January-2014 May. These categories include data from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), and decaying (H) SGs. We investigate temporal variations of all data sets used in this study and find the following results. (1) There is a very significant decrease in the large groups' SSCs and the number of SGs in solar cycle 24 (cycle 24) compared to cycles 21-23. (2) There is no strong variation in the decaying groups' data sets for the entire investigated time interval. (3) Medium group data show a gradual decrease for the last three cycles. (4) A significant decrease occurred in the small groups during solar cycle 23, while no strong changes show in the current cycle (cycle 24) compared to the previous ones. We confirm that the temporal behavior of all categories is quite different from cycle to cycle and it is especially flagrant in solar cycle 24. Thus, we argue that the reduced absolute number of the large SGs is largely, if not solely, responsible for the weak cycle 24. These results might be important for long-term space weather predictions to understand the rate of formation of different groups of sunspots during a solar cycle and the possible consequences for the long-term geomagnetic activity

  14. MEASUREMENTS OF ABSORPTION, EMISSIVITY REDUCTION, AND LOCAL SUPPRESSION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, D.-Y.; Liang, Z.-C.; Yang, M.-H.; Zhao Hui; Sun, M.-T.

    2009-01-01

    The power of solar acoustic waves in magnetic regions is lower relative to the quiet Sun. Absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of acoustic waves contribute to the observed power reduction in magnetic regions. We propose a model for the energy budget of acoustic waves propagating through a sunspot in terms of the coefficients of absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of the sunspot. Using the property that the waves emitted along the wave path between two points have no correlation with the signal at the starting point, we can separate the effects of these three mechanisms. Applying this method to helioseismic data filtered with direction and phase-velocity filters, we measure the fraction of the contribution of each mechanism to the power deficit in the umbra of the leading sunspot of NOAA 9057. The contribution from absorption is 23.3 ± 1.3%, emissivity reduction 8.2 ± 1.4%, and local suppression 68.5 ± 1.5%, for a wave packet corresponding to a phase velocity of 6.98 x 10 -5 rad s -1 .

  15. Fitting outbreak models to data from many small norovirus outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eamon B. O’Dea

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Infectious disease often occurs in small, independent outbreaks in populations with varying characteristics. Each outbreak by itself may provide too little information for accurate estimation of epidemic model parameters. Here we show that using standard stochastic epidemic models for each outbreak and allowing parameters to vary between outbreaks according to a linear predictor leads to a generalized linear model that accurately estimates parameters from many small and diverse outbreaks. By estimating initial growth rates in addition to transmission rates, we are able to characterize variation in numbers of initially susceptible individuals or contact patterns between outbreaks. With simulation, we find that the estimates are fairly robust to the data being collected at discrete intervals and imputation of about half of all infectious periods. We apply the method by fitting data from 75 norovirus outbreaks in health-care settings. Our baseline regression estimates are 0.0037 transmissions per infective-susceptible day, an initial growth rate of 0.27 transmissions per infective day, and a symptomatic period of 3.35 days. Outbreaks in long-term-care facilities had significantly higher transmission and initial growth rates than outbreaks in hospitals.

  16. Forecasting rodent outbreaks in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leirs, Herwig; Verhagen, Ron; Verheyen, Walter

    1996-01-01

    1. Rainfall data were collated for years preceding historical outbreaks of Mastomys rats in East Africa in order to test the hypothesis that such outbreaks occur after long dry periods. 2. Rodent outbreaks were generally not preceded by long dry periods. 3. Population dynamics of Mastomys...... natalensis rats in Tanzania are significantly affected by the distribution of rainfall during the rainy season. 4. All previous rodent outbreaks in Tanzania were preceded by abundant rainfall early in the rainy season, i.e, towards the end of the year. 5. A flow chart is constructed to assess the likelihood...

  17. Incentives for reporting disease outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramanan Laxminarayan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Countries face conflicting incentives to report infectious disease outbreaks. Reports of outbreaks can prompt other countries to impose trade and travel restrictions, which has the potential to discourage reporting. However, reports can also bring medical assistance to contain the outbreak, including access to vaccines. METHODS: We compiled data on reports of meningococcal meningitis to the World Health Organization (WHO from 54 African countries between 1966 and 2002, a period is marked by two events: first, a large outbreak reported from many countries in 1987 associated with the Hajj that resulted in more stringent requirements for meningitis vaccination among pilgrims; and second, another large outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa in 1996 that led to a new international mechanism to supply vaccines to countries reporting a meningitis outbreak. We used fixed-effects regression modeling to statistically estimate the effect of external forcing events on the number of countries reporting cases of meningitis to WHO. FINDINGS: We find that the Hajj vaccination requirements started in 1988 were associated with reduced reporting, especially among countries with relatively fewer cases reported between 1966 and 1979. After the vaccine provision mechanism was in place in 1996, reporting among countries that had previously not reported meningitis outbreaks increased. INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that countries may respond to changing incentives to report outbreaks when they can do so. In the long term, these incentives are likely to be more important than surveillance assistance in prompt reporting of outbreaks.

  18. Additional value of typing Noroviruses in gastroenteritis outbreaks in Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koek, A G; Bovée, L P M J; van den Hoek, J A R; Bos, A J; Bruisten, S M

    2006-02-01

    In Amsterdam, 17 of the 55 gastroenteritis (GI) outbreaks reported from January 2002 to May 2003 were confirmed to be caused by noroviruses (NV). In this study, we describe the molecular epidemiology of a group of nine outbreaks associated with a catering firm and two outbreaks, 5 months apart, in an Amsterdam hospital. All outbreaks were typed to confirm their linkage, and the hospital-related cases were studied to see if the two outbreaks were caused by one persisting NV strain or by a reintroduction after 5 months. For the outbreaks associated with the catering firm one NV genogroup I strain was found which was identical in sequence among customers and employees of the caterer. This was not the strain that predominantly circulated in 2002/2003 in and around Amsterdam, which was the NV genogroup II4 "new variant" (GgII4nv) strain. In the Amsterdam hospital, the two outbreaks were caused by this predominant GgII4nv type, and we argue that NV was most likely reintroduced in the second outbreak from the Amsterdam community.

  19. SOHO sees right through the Sun, and finds sunspots on the far side

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-03-01

    The story is told today in the journal Science by Charles Lindsey of Tucson, Arizona, and Doug Braun of Boulder, Colorado. They realised that the analytical witchcraft called helioseismic holography might open a window right through the Sun. And the technique worked when they used it to decode waves seen on the visible surface by one of SOHO's instruments, the Michelson Doppler Imager, or MDI. "We've known for ten years that in theory we could make the Sun transparent all the way to the far side," said Charles Lindsey. "But we needed observations of exceptional quality. In the end we got them, from MDI on SOHO." For more than 100 years scientists have been aware that groups of dark sunspots on the Sun's visible face are often the scene of flares and other eruptions. Nowadays they watch the Sun more closely than ever, because modern systems are much more vulnerable to solar disturbances than old-style technology was. The experts can still be taken by surprise, because the Sun turns on its axis. A large group of previously hidden sunspots can suddenly swing into view on the eastern (left-hand) edge of the Sun. It may already be blazing away with menacing eruptions. With a far-side preview of sunspots, nasty shocks for the space weather forecasters may now be avoidable. Last year, French and Finnish scientists used SWAN, another instrument on SOHO, to detect activity on the far side. They saw an ultraviolet glow lighting up gas in the Solar System beyond the Sun, and moving across the sky like a lighthouse beam as the Sun rotated. The method used by Lindsey and Braun with MDI data is completely different, and it pinpoints the source of the activity on the far side. Solar seismology chalks up another success Detection of sound waves reverberating through the Sun opened its gassy interior for investigation, in much the same way as seismologists learned to explore the Earth's rocky interior with earthquake waves. Using special telescopes on the ground and in space

  20. On the relation between activity-related frequency shifts and the sunspot distribution over the solar cycle 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos Ângela R. G.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The activity-related variations in the solar acoustic frequencies have been known for 30 years. However, the importance of the different contributions is still not well established. With this in mind, we developed an empirical model to estimate the spot-induced frequency shifts, which takes into account the sunspot properties, such as area and latitude. The comparison between the model frequency shifts obtained from the daily sunspot records and those observed suggests that the contribution from a stochastic component to the total frequency shifts is about 30%. The remaining 70% is related to a global, long-term variation. We also propose a new observable to investigate the short-and mid-term variations of the frequency shifts, which is insensitive to the long-term variations contained in the data. On the shortest time scales the variations in the frequency shifts are strongly correlated with the variations in the total area covered by sunspots. However, a significant loss of correlation is still found, which cannot be fully explained by ignoring the invisible side of the Sun when accounting for the total sunspot area. We also verify that the times when the frequency shifts and the sunspot areas do not vary in a similar way tend to coincide with the times of the maximum amplitude of the quasi-biennial variations found in the seismic data.

  1. Records of auroral candidates and sunspots in Rikkokushi, chronicles of ancient Japan from early 7th century to 887

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Isobe, Hiroaki; Namiki, Katsuko; Shibata, Kazunari

    2017-12-01

    We present the results of the surveys on sunspots and auroral candidates in Rikkokushi, Japanese official histories from the early 7th century to 887, to review the solar and auroral activities. In total, we found one sunspot record and 13 auroral candidates in Rikkokushi. We then examine the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates, compare the auroral candidates with the lunar phase to estimate their reliability, and compare the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates with the contemporary total solar irradiance reconstructed from radioisotope data. We also identify the locations of the observational sites to review possible equatorward expansion of the auroral oval. These discussions suggest a major gap in auroral candidates from the late 7th to early 9th centuries, which includes the candidate of the grand minimum reconstructed from the radioisotope data, a similar tendency as the distributions of sunspot records in contemporary China, and a relatively high magnetic latitude of observational sites with a higher potential for observing aurorae more frequently than at present.

  2. A Hospital-wide Outbreak of Serratia marcescens, and Ishikawa's “Fishbone” Analysis to Support Outbreak Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Luzia; Schuepfer, Guido; Kuster, Stefan P.

    2016-01-01

    A nosocomial outbreak of Serratia marcescens in respiratory samples predominantly from patients in a surgical intensive care unit is reported. Most of these patients were cardiac surgical patients. Initially, a vigorous but inconclusive investigation was implemented on the basis of standardized (according the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) steps of outbreak investigation. Then, a systemic quality management approach with “fishbone” analysis was added. As a consequence, plausible causes for the outbreak were identified: (i) S marcescens was found on the transesophageal echocardiography probe used during cardiac surgery; and (ii) the quality of the surface disinfection was insufficient due to multiple reasons and was completely reengineered. In conclusion, in addition to the standardized steps of outbreak investigation, the complementary use of quality management tools such as the Ishikawa “fishbone” analysis is helpful for outbreak control. The complete reengineering of the disinfectant procurement and logistics is assumed to have been the most effective measure to control the described outbreak. PMID:26783861

  3. Gastroenteritis outbreaks on cruise ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mouchtouri, Varvara A; Verykouki, Eleni; Zamfir, Dumitru

    2017-01-01

    When an increased number of acute gastroenteritis (AG) cases is detected among tourists staying at the same accommodation, outbreak management plans must be activated in a timely manner to prevent large outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance data collected between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2013...

  4. On Solar Granulations, Limb Darkening, and Sunspots: Brief Insights in Remembrance of Father Angelo Secchi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Father Angelo Secchi used the existence of solar granulation as a central line of rea- soning when he advanced that the Sun was a gaseous body with a photosphere contain- ing incandescent particulate matter (Secchi A. Sulla Struttura della Fotosfera Solare. Bullettino Meteorologico dell’Osservatorio del Collegio Romano , 30 November 1864, v.3(11, 1–3. Secchi saw the granules as condensed matter emitting the photospheric spectrum, while the darkened intergranular lanes conveyed the presence of a gaseous solar interior. Secchi also considered the nature of sunspots and limb darkening. In the context of modern solar models, opacity arguments currently account for the emis- sive properties of the photosphere. Optical depth is thought to explain limb darkening. Both temperature variations and magnetic fields are invoked to justify the weakened emissivities of sunspots, even though the presence of static magnetic fields in materi- als is not usually associated with modified emissivity. Conversely, within the context of a liquid metallic hydrogen solar model, the appearance of granules, limb darkening, and sunspots can be elegantly understood through the varying directional emissivity of condensed matter. A single explanation is applicable to all three phenomena. Granular contrast can be directly associated with the generation of limb darkening. Depending on size, granules can be analyzed by considering Kolmogoroff’s formulations and B ́ enard convection, respectively, both of which were observed using incompressible liquids, not gases. Granules follow the 2-dimensional space filling laws of Aboav-Weiner and Lewis. Their adherence to these structural laws provides supportive evidence that the granular surface of the Sun represents elements which can only be constructed from condensed matter. A gaseous Sun cannot be confined to a 2-dimensional framework. Mesogranules, supergranules, and giant cells constitute additional entities which further

  5. The Formation of a Sunspot Penumbra Sector in Active Region NOAA 12574

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiaoling; Yan, Xiaoli; Wang, Jincheng; Kong, DeFang; Xue, Zhike; Yang, Liheng; Cao, Wenda

    2018-04-01

    We present a particular case of the formation of a penumbra sector around a developing sunspot in the active region NOAA 12574 on 2016 August 11 by using the high-resolution data observed by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and the data acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. Before the new penumbra sector formed, the developing sunspot already had two umbrae with some penumbral filaments. The penumbra sector gradually formed at the junction of two umbrae. We found that the formation of the penumbra sector can be divided into two stages. First, during the initial stage of penumbral formation, the region where the penumbra sector formed always appeared blueshifted in a Dopplergram. The area, mean transverse magnetic field strength, and total magnetic flux of the umbra and penumbra sector all increased with time. The initial penumbral formation was associated with magnetic emergence. Second, when the penumbra sector appeared, the magnetic flux and area of the penumbra sector increased after the umbra’s magnetic flux and area decreased. These results indicate that the umbra provided magnetic flux for penumbral development after the penumbra sector appeared. We also found that the newly formed penumbra sector was associated with sunspot rotation. Based on these findings, we suggest that the penumbra sector was the result of the emerging flux that was trapped in the photosphere at the initial stage of penumbral formation, and when the rudimentary penumbra formed, the penumbra sector developed at the cost of the umbra.

  6. LOOKING FOR GRANULATION AND PERIODICITY IMPRINTS IN THE SUNSPOT TIME SERIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Ilídio [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofísica, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Hugo G., E-mail: ilidio.lopes@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: hgsilva@uevora.pt [Departamento de Física, ECT, Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7002-554 Évora (Portugal)

    2015-05-10

    The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral density of daily data series using the Mexican hat wavelet, we found a power spectrum with a well-defined shape, characterized by three features. The first term is the 22 yr solar magnetic cycle, estimated in our work to be 18.43 yr. The second term is related to the daily volatility of sunspots. This term is most likely produced by the turbulent motions linked to the solar granulation. The last term corresponds to a periodic source associated with the solar magnetic activity, for which the maximum power spectral density occurs at 22.67 days. This value is part of the 22–27 day periodicity region that shows an above-average intensity in the power spectra. The origin of this 22.67 day periodic process is not clearly identified, and there is a possibility that it can be produced by convective flows inside the star. The study clearly shows a north–south asymmetry. The 18.43 yr periodical source is correlated between the two hemispheres, but the 22.67 day one is not correlated. It is shown that toward the large timescales an excess occurs in the northern hemisphere, especially near the previous two periodic sources. To further investigate the 22.67 day periodicity, we made a Lomb–Scargle spectral analysis. The study suggests that this periodicity is distinct from others found nearby.

  7. TILT ANGLE AND FOOTPOINT SEPARATION OF SMALL AND LARGE BIPOLAR SUNSPOT REGIONS OBSERVED WITH HMI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate bipolar sunspot regions and how tilt angle and footpoint separation vary during emergence and decay. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory collects data at a higher cadence than historical records and allows for a detailed analysis of regions over their lifetimes. We sample the umbral tilt angle, footpoint separation, and umbral area of 235 bipolar sunspot regions in Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager—Debrecen Data with an hourly cadence. We use the time when the umbral area peaks as time zero to distinguish between the emergence and decay periods of each region and we limit our analysis of tilt and separation behavior over time to within ±96 hr of time zero. Tilt angle evolution is distinctly different for regions with small (≈30 MSH), midsize (≈50 MSH), and large (≈110 MSH) maximum umbral areas, with 45 and 90 MSH being useful divisions for separating the groups. At the peak umbral area, we determine median tilt angles for small (7.°6), midsize (5.°9), and large (9.°3) regions. Within ±48 hr of the time of peak umbral area, large regions steadily increase in tilt angle, midsize regions are nearly constant, and small regions show evidence of negative tilt during emergence. A period of growth in footpoint separation occurs over a 72-hr period for all of the regions from roughly 40 to 70 Mm. The smallest bipoles (<9 MSH) are outliers in that they do not obey Joy's law and have a much smaller footpoint separation. We confirm the Muñoz-Jaramillo et al. results that the sunspots appear to be two distinct populations

  8. STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF THE HIGH-FREQUENCY CONTENT OF DAILY SUNSPOTS AND EVIDENCE FOR REGIME CHANGES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Courtillot, V.; Shnirman, M.

    2015-01-01

    The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way

  9. Outbreaks, gene flow and effective population size in the migratory locust, Locusta migratoria: a regional-scale comparative survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapuis, Marie-Pierre; Loiseau, Anne; Michalakis, Yannis; Lecoq, Michel; Franc, Alex; Estoup, Arnaud

    2009-03-01

    The potential effect of population outbreaks on within and between genetic variation of populations in pest species has rarely been assessed. In this study, we compare patterns of genetic variation in different sets of historically frequently outbreaking and rarely outbreaking populations of an agricultural pest of major importance, the migratory locust, Locusta migratoria. We analyse genetic variation within and between 24 populations at 14 microsatellites in Western Europe, where only ancient and low-intensity outbreaks have been reported (non-outbreaking populations), and in Madagascar and Northern China, where frequent and intense outbreak events have been recorded over the last century (outbreaking populations). Our comparative survey shows that (i) the long-term effective population size is similar in outbreaking and non-outbreaking populations, as evidenced by similar estimates of genetic diversity, and (ii) gene flow is substantially larger among outbreaking populations than among non-outbreaking populations, as evidenced by a fourfold to 30-fold difference in FST values. We discuss the implications for population dynamics and the consequences for management strategies of the observed patterns of genetic variation in L. migratoria populations with contrasting historical outbreak frequency and extent.

  10. THE FORMATION OF AN INVERSE S-SHAPED ACTIVE-REGION FILAMENT DRIVEN BY SUNSPOT MOTION AND MAGNETIC RECONNECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, X. L.; Xue, Z. K.; Wang, J. C.; Yang, L. H. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Priest, E. R. [Mathematics Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Guo, Q. L., E-mail: yanxl@ynao.ac.cn [College of Mathematics Physics and Information Engineering, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001 (China)

    2016-11-20

    We present a detailed study of the formation of an inverse S-shaped filament prior to its eruption in active region NOAA 11884 from 2013 October 31 to November 2. In the initial stage, clockwise rotation of a small positive sunspot around the main negative trailing sunspot formed a curved filament. Then the small sunspot cancelled with the negative magnetic flux to create a longer active-region filament with an inverse S-shape. At the cancellation site a brightening was observed in UV and EUV images and bright material was transferred to the filament. Later the filament erupted after cancellation of two opposite polarities below the upper part of the filament. Nonlinear force-free field extrapolation of vector photospheric fields suggests that the filament may have a twisted structure, but this cannot be confirmed from the current observations.

  11. Relation of flare activity to the approach and separation of sunspots in an active region and to its magnetic properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markova, E.

    1978-01-01

    The relation between the flare activity of active regions within the scope of a large complex and the magnetic gradients of these active regions and their daily variations is investigated in the interval of the exceptionally high flare activity occurring in June 1970. New indices, characterizing the active region, were defined, e.g., the instantaneous sunspot-area density and the instantaneous sunspot-number density. These indices were determined on the basis of measurements of the surface containing all sunspots of the complex of active regions enclosed by an envelope. An attempt was made to substitute the surface in the relation for the individual indices by distance. The daily variations of these indices were again compared with the flare activity and some mutual relations were derived. (author)

  12. Questioning the Influence of Sunspots on Amazon Hydrology: Even a Broken Clock Tells the Right Time Twice a Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, J. C. A.; Gloor, M.; Boom, A.; Neill, D. A.; Cintra, B. B. L.; Clerici, S. J.; Brienen, R. J. W.

    2018-02-01

    It was suggested in a recent article that sunspots drive decadal variation in Amazon River flow. This conclusion was based on a novel time series decomposition method used to extract a decadal signal from the Amazon River record. We have extended this analysis back in time, using a new hydrological proxy record of tree ring oxygen isotopes (δ18OTR). Consistent with the findings of Antico and Torres, we find a positive correlation between sunspots and the decadal δ18OTR cycle from 1903 to 2012 (r = 0.60, p r = -0.30, p = 0.11, 1799-1902). This result casts considerable doubt over the mechanism by which sunspots are purported to influence Amazon hydrology.

  13. Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

  14. On the statistical aspects of sunspot number time series and its association with the summer-monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chattopadhyay, Goutami

    The present paper reports studies on the association between the mean annual sunspot numbers and the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The cross correlations have been studied. After Box-Cox transformation, the time spectral analysis has been executed and it has been found that both of the time series have an important spectrum at the fifth harmonic. An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed on the data series averaged continuously by five years and the neural network could establish a predictor-predict and relationship between the sunspot numbers and the mean yearly summer monsoon rainfall over India.

  15. WAVES AS THE SOURCE OF APPARENT TWISTING MOTIONS IN SUNSPOT PENUMBRAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bharti, L.; Cameron, R. H.; Hirzberger, J.; Solanki, S. K.; Rempel, M.

    2012-01-01

    The motion of dark striations across bright filaments in a sunspot penumbra has become an important new diagnostic of convective gas flows in penumbral filaments. The nature of these striations has, however, remained unclear. Here, we present an analysis of small-scale motions in penumbral filaments in both simulations and observations. The simulations, when viewed from above, show fine structure with dark lanes running outward from the dark core of the penumbral filaments. The dark lanes either occur preferentially on one side or alternate between both sides of the filament. We identify this fine structure with transverse (kink) oscillations of the filament, corresponding to a sideways swaying of the filament. These oscillations have periods in the range of 5-7 minutes and propagate outward and downward along the filament. Similar features are found in observed G-band intensity time series of penumbral filaments in a sunspot located near disk center obtained by the Broadband Filter Imager on board the Hinode. We also find that some filaments show dark striations moving to both sides of the filaments. Based on the agreement between simulations and observations we conclude that the motions of these striations are caused by transverse oscillations of the underlying bright filaments.

  16. The mutual attraction of magnetic knots. [solar hydromagnetic instability in sunspot regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, E. N.

    1978-01-01

    It is observed that the magnetic knots associated with active regions on the sun have an attraction for each other during the formative period of the active regions, when new magnetic flux is coming to the surface. The attraction disappears when new flux ceases to rise through the surface. Then the magnetic spots and knots tend to come apart, leading to disintegration of the sunspots previously formed. The dissolution of the fields is to be expected, as a consequence of the magnetic repulsion of knots of like polarity and as a consequence of the hydromagnetic exchange instability. The purpose of this paper is to show that the mutual attraction of knots during the formative stages of a sunspot region may be understood as the mutual hydrodynamic attraction of the rising flux tubes. Two rising tubes attract each other, as a consequence of the wake of the leading tube when one is moving behind the other, and as a consequence of the Bernoulli effect when rising side by side.

  17. The Frequency-dependent Damping of Slow Magnetoacoustic Waves in a Sunspot Umbral Atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasad, S. Krishna; Jess, D. B. [Astrophysics Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Doorsselaere, T. Van [Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Mathematics Department, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B bus 2400, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Verth, G. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield, S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Morton, R. J. [Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northumbria University, Ellison Building, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST (United Kingdom); Fedun, V. [Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S1 3JD (United Kingdom); Erdélyi, R. [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC), School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Christian, D. J., E-mail: krishna.prasad@qub.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, Northridge, CA 91330 (United States)

    2017-09-20

    High spatial and temporal resolution images of a sunspot, obtained simultaneously in multiple optical and UV wavelengths, are employed to study the propagation and damping characteristics of slow magnetoacoustic waves up to transition region heights. Power spectra are generated from intensity oscillations in sunspot umbra, across multiple atmospheric heights, for frequencies up to a few hundred mHz. It is observed that the power spectra display a power-law dependence over the entire frequency range, with a significant enhancement around 5.5 mHz found for the chromospheric channels. The phase difference spectra reveal a cutoff frequency near 3 mHz, up to which the oscillations are evanescent, while those with higher frequencies propagate upward. The power-law index appears to increase with atmospheric height. Also, shorter damping lengths are observed for oscillations with higher frequencies suggesting frequency-dependent damping. Using the relative amplitudes of the 5.5 mHz (3 minute) oscillations, we estimate the energy flux at different heights, which seems to decay gradually from the photosphere, in agreement with recent numerical simulations. Furthermore, a comparison of power spectra across the umbral radius highlights an enhancement of high-frequency waves near the umbral center, which does not seem to be related to magnetic field inclination angle effects.

  18. Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum: Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihalov, J.D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A.J.; Smith, E.J.

    1990-01-01

    The solar wind speeds observed in the outer heliosphere (20 to 40 AU heliocentric distance, approximately) by Pioneers 10 an 11, and at a heliocentric distance of 0.7 AU by the Pioneer Venus spacecraft, reveal a complex set of changes in the years near the recent sunspot minimum, 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations made from the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft during the same epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and (by implication) the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet (or with heliomagnetic latitude), and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum. The authors confirm here that this basic organization of the solar wind speed persists in the outer heliosphere with an orientation of the neutral sheet consistent with that inferred at a heliocentric distance of a few solar radii, from the coronal observations

  19. Observations of the longitudinal magnetic field in the transition region and photosphere of a sunspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henze, W., Jr.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Hagyard, M. J.; West, E. A.; Woodgate, B. E.; Shine, R. A.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, M.; Hyder, C. L.; West, E. A.

    1982-01-01

    The Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission spacraft has observed for the first time the longitudinal component of the magnetic field by means of the Zeeman effect in the transition region above a sunspot. The data presented here were obtained on three days in one sunspot, have spatial resolutions of 10 arcsec and 3 arcsec, and yield maximum field strengths greater than 1000 G above the umbrae in the spot. The method of analysis, including a line-width calibration feature used during some of the observations, is described in some detail in an appendix; the line width is required for the determination of the longitudinal magnetic field from the observed circular polarization. The transition region data for one day are compared with photospheric magnetograms from the Marshall Space Flight Center. Vertical gradients of the magnetic field are compared from the two sets of data; the maximum gradients of 0.41 to 0.62 G/km occur above the umbra and agree with or are smaller than values observed previously in the photosphere and low chromosphere.

  20. Initial phase of the development of sunspot groups and their forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berlyand, B.O.; Burov, V.A.; Stepanyan, N.N.

    1979-01-01

    Some characteristics of the initial phase of sunspot groups and their forecast have been considered. Experimental data on 340 sunspot groups were obtained in 1967-1969. It was found that oscillations of the magnetic flux in the groups indicate the possibility of the existence of typical periods (2 and 4 days) of the magnetic field development. Most of the groups appears in young plages. The probability of the protons injection from the young groups is very small. The typical time of the development of the proton centre is 10-30 days. The characteristics of the group on the first day of its existence are vaguely connected with the lifetime of the group. On the second and third days the magnetic characteristics (the summary magnetic flux and the number of the unipolar regions) have the highest correlation coefficient (approximately 70%) with the lifetime of the group. The problem of the group lifetime forecast was being solved with the pattern recognition technique. On the base of the second day observation of the existence of the group verification of the received forecast 14% exceeds the verification of the climatological forecast. The forecast of the Zurich class with the same technique is effective beginning with the fifth day of the group existence and the forecast of the flare activity of the group since the day of its appearance. The exceeding of the verification as compared with the climatological forecasts in these problems is 10% and 8% accordingly

  1. Causes of Outbreaks Associated with Drinking Water in the United States from 1971 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craun, Gunther F.; Brunkard, Joan M.; Yoder, Jonathan S.; Roberts, Virginia A.; Carpenter, Joe; Wade, Tim; Calderon, Rebecca L.; Roberts, Jacquelin M.; Beach, Michael J.; Roy, Sharon L.

    2010-01-01

    Summary: Since 1971, the CDC, EPA, and Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) have maintained the collaborative national Waterborne Disease and Outbreak Surveillance System (WBDOSS) to document waterborne disease outbreaks (WBDOs) reported by local, state, and territorial health departments. WBDOs were recently reclassified to better characterize water system deficiencies and risk factors; data were analyzed for trends in outbreak occurrence, etiologies, and deficiencies during 1971 to 2006. A total of 833 WBDOs, 577,991 cases of illness, and 106 deaths were reported during 1971 to 2006. Trends of public health significance include (i) a decrease in the number of reported outbreaks over time and in the annual proportion of outbreaks reported in public water systems, (ii) an increase in the annual proportion of outbreaks reported in individual water systems and in the proportion of outbreaks associated with premise plumbing deficiencies in public water systems, (iii) no change in the annual proportion of outbreaks associated with distribution system deficiencies or the use of untreated and improperly treated groundwater in public water systems, and (iv) the increasing importance of Legionella since its inclusion in WBDOSS in 2001. Data from WBDOSS have helped inform public health and regulatory responses. Additional resources for waterborne disease surveillance and outbreak detection are essential to improve our ability to monitor, detect, and prevent waterborne disease in the United States. PMID:20610821

  2. Outbreak of caliciviruses in the Singapore military, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neo, Freddy Jun Xian; Loh, Jimmy Jin Phang; Ting, Peijun; Yeo, Wei Xin; Gao, Christine Qiu Han; Lee, Vernon Jian Ming; Tan, Boon Huan; Ng, Ching Ging

    2017-11-14

    From 31 August to 9 September 2015, a total of 150 military personnel at a military institution in Singapore were infected with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) with an attack rate of approximately 3%. This study aimed to determine the epidemiology of the outbreak, investigate its origins, and discuss measures to prevent future occurrences. After the AGE outbreak was declared on 31 August 2015, symptom surveys, hygiene inspections, and the testing of water, food, and stool samples were initiated. We collected 86 stool samples from AGE cases and 58 samples from food-handlers during the course of the outbreak and these stool samples were tested for 8 bacterial pathogens and 2 viral pathogens (i.e., norovirus and sapovirus). We detected Sapovirus (SaV), group I Norovirus (NoV GI) and group II Norovirus (NoV GII) from the stool samples of AGE cases. Further sequence analyses showed that the AGE outbreak in August was caused mainly by three rarely reported calicivirus novel genotypes: NoV GI.7, NoV GII.17 and SaV GII.3. Control measures implemented focused on the escalation of personal and environmental hygiene, which included the separation of affected and unaffected soldiers, enforcement of rigorous hand-washing and hygiene, raising awareness of food and water safety, and disinfection of communal areas with bleach. This study identified both NoV and SaV as the causative agents for an AGE outbreak at a Singapore military camp in August 2015. This study is also the first to report SaV as one of the main causative agents, highlighting the importance of caliciviruses as causative agents of AGE outbreaks in the Singapore military. As there are no commercially available vaccines against caliciviruses, strict personal hygiene and proper disinfection of environmental surfaces remain crucial to prevent calicivirus outbreak and transmission.

  3. The reconciliation of an F-region irregularity model with sunspot-cycle variations in spread-F occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singleton, D.G.

    1974-11-01

    A recently proposed means of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density (ΔN) so as to simulate the global occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is discussed. This procedure is then used to model experimental spread-F occurrence results. It is found possible to readily simulate the sunspot-maximum results, independently of season, with only small adjustments to the amplitudes of the empirical expressions used to ΔN in the several latitude regimes. However, at sunspot minimum and for each season, the ΔN model requires modification in the equatorial and mid-latitude regions of high irregularity incidence, before successful simulations of the spread-F data can be obtained. These modifications, which include a broadening of the equatorial region and a polewards shift to the mid-latitude region with decreasing sunspot number, are discussed in detail. It is concluded that the scintillation data base, from which the original ΔN model derives, is not sufficiently representative with regard to sunspot number and magnetic index. The use of the spread-F adaptation of the ΔN model, as well as its original scintillation version, to rectify these failings of the ΔN model are also discussed. (author)

  4. Effect of solar flare ans sunspot numbers on the intensity of 5577A line in the night airglow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kundu, N.; Ghosh, S.N.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of solar flare and sunspot number on the intensity of 5577 A line emission are presented. The time lag between the occurrence of a flare and the enhancement of 5577 A line intensity is determined by observing the intensity of the line on three successive nights- the night preceding the flare and the two nights following it. The velocity of the solar corpuscles is then calculated. The value obtained at Allahabad (2400 Km/sec) is in agreement with the De Jager's prediction for explosive flare. Day-to-day analyses of the observations taken at Allahabad exhibit high correlation of the intensity of 5577 A line emission with sunspot number. Also, correlation is found for the intensity of 5577 A with the change in sunspot number (DELTA R) from the day preceding the night of observation to the day following it. The intensity appears to vary with the magnetic field produced by the sunspot and not with the spot area. (author)

  5. Values of Kp Indices, Ap Indices, Cp Indices, C9 Indices, Sunspot Number, and 10.7 cm Flux

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data file consists of Kp indices, Ap indices, Cp indices, C9 indices, sunspot number, and 10.7 cm flux. The most often requested parameter of this file are the...

  6. New reconstruction of the sunspot group numbers since 1739 using direct calibration and "backbone" methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzistergos, Theodosios; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Solanki, Sami K.

    2017-06-01

    Context. The group sunspot number (GSN) series constitute the longest instrumental astronomical database providing information on solar activity. This database is a compilation of observations by many individual observers, and their inter-calibration has usually been performed using linear rescaling. There are multiple published series that show different long-term trends for solar activity. Aims: We aim at producing a GSN series, with a non-linear non-parametric calibration. The only underlying assumptions are that the differences between the various series are due to different acuity thresholds of the observers, and that the threshold of each observer remains constant throughout the observing period. Methods: We used a daisy chain process with backbone (BB) observers and calibrated all overlapping observers to them. We performed the calibration of each individual observer with a probability distribution function (PDF) matrix constructed considering all daily values for the overlapping period with the BB. The calibration of the BBs was carried out in a similar manner. The final series was constructed by merging different BB series. We modelled the propagation of errors straightforwardly with Monte Carlo simulations. A potential bias due to the selection of BBs was investigated and the effect was shown to lie within the 1σ interval of the produced series. The exact selection of the reference period was shown to have a rather small effect on our calibration as well. Results: The final series extends back to 1739 and includes data from 314 observers. This series suggests moderate activity during the 18th and 19th century, which is significantly lower than the high level of solar activity predicted by other recent reconstructions applying linear regressions. Conclusions: The new series provides a robust reconstruction, based on modern and non-parametric methods, of sunspot group numbers since 1739, and it confirms the existence of the modern grand maximum of solar

  7. Outbreak Column 16: Cognitive errors in outbreak decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Evonne T

    2015-01-01

    During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.

  8. Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum - Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalov, J. D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Smith, E. J.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at the Pioneer spacecraft are discussed here in terms of the changing magnetic geometry implied by SMM coronagraph observations over the period 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations during this epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet, and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum.

  9. Vector magnetic fields in sunspots. I - Stokes profile analysis using the Marshall Space Flight Center magnetograph

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramaniam, K. S.; West, E. A.

    1991-01-01

    The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph is a tunable filter magnetograph with a bandpass of 125 mA. Results are presented of the inversion of Stokes polarization profiles observed with the MSFC vector magnetograph centered on a sunspot to recover the vector magnetic field parameters and thermodynamic parameters of the spectral line forming region using the Fe I 5250.2 A spectral line using a nonlinear least-squares fitting technique. As a preliminary investigation, it is also shown that the recovered thermodynamic parameters could be better understood if the fitted parameters like Doppler width, opacity ratio, and damping constant were broken down into more basic quantities like temperature, microturbulent velocity, or density parameter.

  10. Oscillations in sunspot umbras due to trapped Alfven waves excited by overstability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, Yutaka; Sakurai, Takashi.

    1975-01-01

    Oscillations observed in sunspot umbras are interpreted as a vertical motion in the atmosphere induced by a standing Alfven wave trapped in the region between the overstable layer under the photosphere and the chromosphere-corona transition layer. The Alfven wave motion is considered to be excited by the overstable convection occurring at the bottom of the abovementioned oscillating layer, and waves with special frequencies are selected as eigen-mode waves standing in the ''cavity,'' while other waves which are out of phase with themselves after reflections will disappear. It is shown by solving the eigen-value problem that the fundamental eigen frequency falls in a range around 0.04 rad s -1 (corresponding to 140-180 s) for the condition in the umbra of a typical spot, and also that the eigen frequencies do not depend greatly on the circumstantial physical or geometric parameters of the model atmosphere, such as the temperature in the layer, or the height of the transition layer, etc. The eigen frequencies, however, depend on the Alfven velocity at the base of the oscillating layer (or at the top of the overstable layer), but the latter quantity, which represents the stiffness of the magnetic tube of force against the overturning motion, takes roughly a common value for different sunspots according to SAVAGE's (1969) stability analysis of the umbral atmosphere against thermal convection, and thus gives a comparatively narrow range of resonant frequencies. In addition to the selection mechanism for oscillations of 140-180-s period, some other aspects of the oscillation, such as the relation to the running penumbral waves, are discussed. (auth.)

  11. THE MYSTERIOUS CASE OF THE SOLAR ARGON ABUNDANCE NEAR SUNSPOTS IN FLARES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doschek, G. A.; Warren, H. P.

    2016-01-01

    Recently we discussed an enhancement of the abundance of Ar xiv relative to Ca xiv near a sunspot during a flare, observed in spectra recorded by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on the Hinode spacecraft. The observed Ar xiv/Ca xiv ratio yields an argon/calcium abundance ratio seven times greater than expected from the photospheric abundance. Such a large abundance anomaly is unprecedented in the solar atmosphere. We interpreted this result as being due to an inverse first ionization potential (FIP) effect. In the published work, two lines of Ar xiv were observed, and one line was tentatively identified as an Ar xi line. In this paper, we report observing a similar enhancement in a full-CCD EIS flare spectrum in 13 argon lines that lie within the EIS wavelength ranges. The observed lines include two Ar xi lines, four Ar xiii lines, six Ar xiv lines, and one Ar xv line. The enhancement is far less than reported in Doschek et al. but exhibits similar morphology. The argon abundance is close to a photospheric abundance in the enhanced area, and the abundance could be photospheric. This enhancement occurs in association with a sunspot in a small area only a few arcseconds (1″ = about 700 km) in size. There is no enhancement effect observed in the normally high-FIP sulfur and oxygen line ratios relative to lines of low-FIP elements available to EIS. Calculations of path lengths in the strongest enhanced area in Doschek et al. indicate a depletion of low-FIP elements.

  12. TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.; Goode, P. R.; Cao, W.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2011-01-01

    Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.

  13. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF CONVERSION TO ALFVÉN WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khomenko, E.; Cally, P. S.

    2012-01-01

    We study the conversion of fast magnetoacoustic waves to Alfvén waves by means of 2.5D numerical simulations in a sunspot-like magnetic configuration. A fast, essentially acoustic, wave of a given frequency and wave number is generated below the surface and propagates upward through the Alfvén/acoustic equipartition layer where it splits into upgoing slow (acoustic) and fast (magnetic) waves. The fast wave quickly reflects off the steep Alfvén speed gradient, but around and above this reflection height it partially converts to Alfvén waves, depending on the local relative inclinations of the background magnetic field and the wavevector. To measure the efficiency of this conversion to Alfvén waves we calculate acoustic and magnetic energy fluxes. The particular amplitude and phase relations between the magnetic field and velocity oscillations help us to demonstrate that the waves produced are indeed Alfvén waves. We find that the conversion to Alfvén waves is particularly important for strongly inclined fields like those existing in sunspot penumbrae. Equally important is the magnetic field orientation with respect to the vertical plane of wave propagation, which we refer to as 'field azimuth'. For a field azimuth less than 90° the generated Alfvén waves continue upward, but above 90° downgoing Alfvén waves are preferentially produced. This yields negative Alfvén energy flux for azimuths between 90° and 180°. Alfvén energy fluxes may be comparable to or exceed acoustic fluxes, depending upon geometry, though computational exigencies limit their magnitude in our simulations.

  14. Norovirus: U.S. Trends and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... harvested from contaminated water and raspberries irrigated with contaminated water have caused norovirus outbreaks. Norovirus on Cruise Ships Over 90% of diarrheal disease outbreaks on cruise ships are caused by norovirus ( ...

  15. Reporting and Surveillance for Norovirus Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) Estimates of Foodborne Illness in the United States CDC's Vessel Sanitation Program CDC Feature: Surveillance for Norovirus Outbreaks Top ...

  16. TOWARDS MODELING DISEASE OUTBREAK NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Farag Azzedin; Jaweed Yazdani,; Salahadin Adam; Mustafa Ghaleb

    2014-01-01

    Disease outbreak detection, monitoring and notification systems play an important role in assessing threats to public health since disease outbreaks are becoming increasingly common world-wide. There are several systems in use around the world, with coverage of national, international and global disease outbreaks. These systems use different taxonomies and classifications for the detection and prioritization of potential disease outbreaks. In this paper, we study and analyze th...

  17. Emergence of Magnetic Flux Generated in a Solar Convective Dynamo. I. The Formation of Sunspots and Active Regions, and The Origin of Their Asymmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Feng; Rempel, Matthias; Fan, Yuhong, E-mail: chenfeng@ucar.edu [High Altitude Observatory, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307 (United States)

    2017-09-10

    We present a realistic numerical model of sunspot and active region formation based on the emergence of flux bundles generated in a solar convective dynamo. To this end, we use the magnetic and velocity fields in a horizontal layer near the top boundary of the solar convective dynamo simulation to drive realistic radiative-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the uppermost layers of the convection zone. The main results are as follows. (1) The emerging flux bundles rise with the mean speed of convective upflows and fragment into small-scale magnetic elements that further rise to the photosphere, where bipolar sunspot pairs are formed through the coalescence of the small-scale magnetic elements. (2) Filamentary penumbral structures form when the sunspot is still growing through ongoing flux emergence. In contrast to the classical Evershed effect, the inflow seems to prevail over the outflow in a large part of the penumbra. (3) A well-formed sunspot is a mostly monolithic magnetic structure that is anchored in a persistent deep-seated downdraft lane. The flow field outside the spot shows a giant vortex ring that comprises an inflow below 15 Mm depth and an outflow above 15 Mm depth. (4) The sunspots successfully reproduce the fundamental properties of the observed solar active regions, including the more coherent leading spots with a stronger field strength, and the correct tilts of bipolar sunspot pairs. These asymmetries can be linked to the intrinsic asymmetries in the magnetic and flow fields adapted from the convective dynamo simulation.

  18. Measles (Rubeola) Cases and Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Address What’s this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Measles Cases and Outbreaks Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) ... Español: Casos y brotes de sarampión Number of measles cases by year since 2010 Measles cases per ...

  19. Outbreak of Sporotrichosis, Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeney, Kynan T.; Whittle, Amanda J.; Altman, Shelley A.; Speers, David J.

    2007-01-01

    A cluster of sporotrichosis cases occurred in the Busselton-Margaret River region of Western Australia from 2000 to 2003. Epidemiologic investigation and mycologic culture for Sporothrix schenckii implicated hay initially distributed through a commercial hay supplier as the source of the outbreak. Declining infection rates have occurred after various community measures were instigated. PMID:17953099

  20. Larval outbreaks in West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Magnus; Raundrup, Katrine; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    effects of a larval outbreak in 2011 on vegetation productivity and CO2 exchange. We estimate a decreased carbon (C) sink strength in the order of 118–143 g C m−2, corresponding to 1210–1470 tonnes C at the Kobbefjord catchment scale. The decreased C sink was, however, counteracted the following years...

  1. CHROMOSPHERIC MASS MOTIONS AND INTRINSIC SUNSPOT ROTATIONS FOR NOAA ACTIVE REGIONS 10484, 10486, AND 10488 USING ISOON DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardersen, Paul S.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Shkolyar, Svetlana

    2013-01-01

    This work utilizes Improved Solar Observing Optical Network continuum (630.2 nm) and Hα (656.2 nm) data to: (1) detect and measure intrinsic sunspot rotations occurring in the photosphere and chromosphere, (2) identify and measure chromospheric filament mass motions, and (3) assess any large-scale photospheric and chromospheric mass couplings. Significant results from 2003 October 27-29, using the techniques of Brown et al., indicate significant counter-rotation between the two large sunspots in NOAA AR 10486 on October 29, as well as discrete filament mass motions in NOAA AR 10484 on October 27 that appear to be associated with at least one C-class solar flare

  2. Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Brugnara

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU. The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010, which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

  3. Progression of Ebola Therapeutics During the 2014-2015 Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Emelissa J; Qiu, Xiangguo; Kobinger, Gary P

    2016-02-01

    The recent Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa was the deadliest EBOV epidemic in history, highlighting the need for a safe and efficacious treatment against EBOV disease (EVD). In the absence of an approved treatment, experimental drugs were utilized under compassionate grounds hoping to diminish EVD-associated morbidity and mortality. As more data were collected from safety studies, Phase II/III clinical trials were introduced in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia to test promising candidates, including small-molecule drugs, RNA-based treatments, and antibody-based therapies. In this review, we summarize the use of, and preliminary observations from, current clinical trials with EVD therapeutics, shedding light on experimental drug selection, emergency clinical evaluation, and the impact these factors may have on future infectious disease outbreaks. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Successive X-class Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections Driven by Shearing Motion and Sunspot Rotation in Active Region NOAA 12673

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, X. L.; Wang, J. C.; Pan, G. M.; Kong, D. F.; Xue, Z. K.; Yang, L. H.; Li, Q. L.; Feng, X. S.

    2018-03-01

    We present a clear case study on the occurrence of two successive X-class flares, including a decade-class flare (X9.3) and two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) triggered by shearing motion and sunspot rotation in active region NOAA 12673 on 2017 September 6. A shearing motion between the main sunspots with opposite polarities began on September 5 and lasted even after the second X-class flare on September 6. Moreover, the main sunspot with negative polarity rotated around its umbral center, and another main sunspot with positive polarity also exhibited a slow rotation. The sunspot with negative polarity at the northwest of the active region also began to rotate counterclockwise before the onset of the first X-class flare, which is related to the formation of the second S-shaped structure. The successive formation and eruption of two S-shaped structures were closely related to the counterclockwise rotation of the three sunspots. The existence of a flux rope is found prior to the onset of two flares by using nonlinear force-free field extrapolation based on the vector magnetograms observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Image. The first flux rope corresponds to the first S-shaped structures mentioned above. The second S-shaped structure was formed after the eruption of the first flux rope. These results suggest that a shearing motion and sunspot rotation play an important role in the buildup of the free energy and the formation of flux ropes in the corona that produces solar flares and CMEs.

  5. INTERFERENCE OF THE RUNNING WAVES AT LIGHT BRIDGES OF A SUNSPOT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Su, J. T.; Priya, T. G.; Yu, S. J.; Zhang, M. [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Ji, K. F. [Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093 (China); Banerjee, D. [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala Bangalore 560034 (India); Cao, W. D. [Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Zhao, J. S.; Ji, H. S., E-mail: jt@bao.ac.cn [Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing 210008 (China)

    2016-01-01

    The observations of chromospheric oscillations of two umbral light bridges (LBs) within a sunspot from NOAA Active Region 12127 are presented. It was found that the running umbral waves with periods of 2.2–2.6 minutes underwent very fast damping before approaching umbral boundaries, while those with higher periods (>2.6 minutes) could propagate outside umbrae. On two sides of each LB adjacent to umbrae, the cross-wavelet spectra displayed that the oscillations on them had a common significant power region with dominant frequencies of 2–6 minutes and phase differences of ∼90°. A counterstream of two running umbral waves in the 2–6 minute frequency range propagated toward the LBs, where they encountered each other and gave rise to constructive or even destructive interference on the LBs. In addition, the velocity and density perturbations on the LBs were found in opposite phases suggesting that the perturbations were caused by the downward propagating waves.

  6. Principal components and iterative regression analysis of geophysical series: Application to Sunspot number (1750 2004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordemann, D. J. R.; Rigozo, N. R.; de Souza Echer, M. P.; Echer, E.

    2008-11-01

    We present here an implementation of a least squares iterative regression method applied to the sine functions embedded in the principal components extracted from geophysical time series. This method seems to represent a useful improvement for the non-stationary time series periodicity quantitative analysis. The principal components determination followed by the least squares iterative regression method was implemented in an algorithm written in the Scilab (2006) language. The main result of the method is to obtain the set of sine functions embedded in the series analyzed in decreasing order of significance, from the most important ones, likely to represent the physical processes involved in the generation of the series, to the less important ones that represent noise components. Taking into account the need of a deeper knowledge of the Sun's past history and its implication to global climate change, the method was applied to the Sunspot Number series (1750-2004). With the threshold and parameter values used here, the application of the method leads to a total of 441 explicit sine functions, among which 65 were considered as being significant and were used for a reconstruction that gave a normalized mean squared error of 0.146.

  7. Fan-shaped jets above the light bridge of a sunspot driven by reconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robustini, Carolina; Leenaarts, Jorrit; de la Cruz Rodriguez, Jaime; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc

    2016-05-01

    We report on a fan-shaped set of high-speed jets above a strongly magnetized light bridge (LB) of a sunspot observed in the Hα line. We study the origin, dynamics, and thermal properties of the jets using high-resolution imaging spectroscopy in Hα from the Swedish 1m Solar Telescope and data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and Hinode. The Hα jets have lengths of 7-38 Mm, are impulsively accelerated to a speed of ~100 km s-1 close to photospheric footpoints in the LB, and exhibit a constant deceleration consistent with solar effective gravity. They are predominantly launched from one edge of the light bridge, and their footpoints appear bright in the Hα wings. Atmospheric Imaging Assembly data indicates elongated brightenings that are nearly co-spatial with the Hα jets. We interpret them as jets of transition region temperatures. The magnetic field in the light bridge has a strength of 0.8-2 kG and it is nearly horizontal. All jet properties are consistent with magnetic reconnection as the driver. Movies associated to Figs. 1 and 2 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  8. A steady-state supersonic downflow in the transition region above a sunspot umbra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straus, Thomas; Fleck, Bernhard; Andretta, Vincenzo

    2015-10-01

    We investigate a small-scale (~1.5 Mm along the slit), supersonic downflow of about 90 km s-1 in the transition region above the lightbridged sunspot umbra in AR 11836. The observations were obtained with the Interface Region Spectrograph (IRIS) on 2013 September 2 from 16:40 to 17:59 UT. The downflow shows up as redshifted "satellite" lines of the Si iv and O iv transition region lines and is remarkably steady over the observing period of nearly 80 min. The downflow is not visible in the chromospheric lines, which only show an intensity enhancement at the location of the downflow. The density inferred from the line ratio of the redshifted satellites of the O iv lines (Ne = 1010.6 ± 0.25 cm-3) is only a factor 2 smaller than the one inferred from the main components (Ne = 1010.95 ± 0.20 cm-3). Consequently, this implies a substantial mass flux (~5 × 10-7 g cm-2 s-1), which would evacuate the overlying corona on timescales close to 10 s. We interpret these findings as evidence of a stationary termination shock of a supersonic siphon flow in a cool loop that is rooted in the central umbra of the spot. The movie is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  9. Complex network approach to characterize the statistical features of the sunspot series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou, Yong; Liu, Zonghua; Small, Michael; Kurths, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Complex network approaches have been recently developed as an alternative framework to study the statistical features of time-series data. We perform a visibility-graph analysis on both the daily and monthly sunspot series. Based on the data, we propose two ways to construct the network: one is from the original observable measurements and the other is from a negative-inverse-transformed series. The degree distribution of the derived networks for the strong maxima has clear non-Gaussian properties, while the degree distribution for minima is bimodal. The long-term variation of the cycles is reflected by hubs in the network that span relatively large time intervals. Based on standard network structural measures, we propose to characterize the long-term correlations by waiting times between two subsequent events. The persistence range of the solar cycles has been identified over 15–1000 days by a power-law regime with scaling exponent γ = 2.04 of the occurrence time of two subsequent strong minima. In contrast, a persistent trend is not present in the maximal numbers, although maxima do have significant deviations from an exponential form. Our results suggest some new insights for evaluating existing models. (paper)

  10. Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

    2016-01-01

    In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

  11. Simultaneous Observations of p-mode Light Walls and Magnetic Reconnection Ejections above Sunspot Light Bridges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Xiaohong, E-mail: yijunhou@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: zjun@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2017-10-10

    Recent high-resolution observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph reveal bright wall-shaped structures in active regions (ARs), especially above sunspot light bridges. Their most prominent feature is the bright oscillating front in the 1400/1330 Å channel. These structures are named light walls and are often interpreted to be driven by p-mode waves. Above the light bridge of AR 12222 on 2014 December 06, we observed intermittent ejections superimposed on an oscillating light wall in the 1400 Å passband. At the base location of each ejection, the emission enhancement was detected in the Solar Dynamics Observatory 1600 Å channel. Thus, we suggest that in wall bases (light bridges), in addition to the leaked p-mode waves consistently driving the oscillating light wall, magnetic reconnection could happen intermittently at some locations and eject the heated plasma upward. Similarly, in the second event occurring in AR 12371 on 2015 June 16, a jet was simultaneously detected in addition to the light wall with a wave-shaped bright front above the light bridge. At the footpoint of this jet, lasting brightening was observed, implying magnetic reconnection at the base. We propose that in these events, two mechanisms, p-mode waves and magnetic reconnection, simultaneously play roles in the light bridge, and lead to the distinct kinetic features of the light walls and the ejection-like activities, respectively. To illustrate the two mechanisms and their resulting activities above light bridges, in this study we present a cartoon model.

  12. On the structure of a magnetic field and its evolution in the vicinity of sunspots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopasyuk, S.I.; Kartashova, L.G.

    1981-01-01

    The structure of magnetic field and its evolution around single large sunspots has been studied. For this purpose observational data of the longitudinal magnetic field on the photospheric level and hsub(α) filtergrams for 18 active regions have been used. It is shown that there are characteristic directions corresponding to the transition of the spot field without sign change into an extended region of the same polarity and coinciding with extended (100000-300000 km) systems of filamentary feature chains of the fine chromospheric structure in active region. The horizontal magnetic f+eld component of the spot (systems of filamentary feature chains of the fine chromospheric structure) disappears on an extended region of chromospheric surface in the direction, where the satellite field (the field of opposite polarity) appears near its boundary. On the other hand, when satellite field disappears at some direction from the spot the transversal magnetic field appears on the extended surface region of the chromosphere keeping the same direction. One of the possible causes of disappearance of the transversal magnetic field on an extended region in the chromosphere might be the reconnection of magnetic lines of force [ru

  13. The Earth's Interaction With the Sun Over the Millennia From Analyses of Historical Sunspot, Auroral and Climate Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, K.

    2001-12-01

    A prolonged decrease in the Sun's irradiance during the Maunder Minimum has been proposed as a cause of the Little Ice Age ({ca} 1600-1800). Eddy [{Science} {192}, 1976, 1189] made this suggestion after noting that very few sunspots were observed from 1645 to 1715, indicative of a weakened Sun. Pre-telescopic Oriental sunspot records go back over 2200 years. Periods when no sunspots were seen have been documented by, {eg}, Clark [{Astron} {7}, 2/1979, 50]. Abundances of C 14 in tree rings and Be10 in ice cores are also good indicators of past solar activity. These isotopes are produced by cosmic rays high in the atmosphere. When the Sun is less active more of them are made and deposited at ground level. There is thus a strong {negative} correlation between their abundances and sunspot counts. Minima of solar activity in tree rings and a south polar ice core have been collated by, {eg}, Bard [{Earth Planet Sci Lett} {150} 1997, 453]; and show striking correspondence with periods when no sunspots were seen, centered at {ca} 900, 1050, 1500, 1700. Pang and Yau [{Eos} {79}, #45, 1998, F149] investigated the Medieval Minimum at 700, using in addition the frequency of auroral sighting7s, a good indicator of solar activity too [Yau, PhD thesis, 1988]; and found that the progression of minima in solar activity goes back to 700. Auroral frequency, C 14 and Be 10 concentrations are also affected by variations in the geomagnetic field. Deposition changes can also influence C 14 and Be 10 abundances. Sunspot counts are thus the only true indicator of solar activity. The Sun's bolometric variations (-0.3% for the Maunder Minimum) can contribute to climatic changes (\\0.5° C for the Little Ice Age)[{eg}, Lean, {GRL} {22}, 1995, 3195]. For times with no thermometer data, temperature can be estimated from, {eg}, Oxygen 18 isotopic abundance in ice cores, which in turn depends on the temperature of the ocean water it evaporated from. We have linked the Medieval Minimum to the cold

  14. Large Outbreak Caused by Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius ST71 in a Finnish Veterinary Teaching Hospital – From Outbreak Control to Outbreak Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grönthal, Thomas; Moodley, Arshnee; Nykäsenoja, Suvi; Junnila, Jouni; Guardabassi, Luca; Thomson, Katariina; Rantala, Merja

    2014-01-01

    Introduction The purpose of this study was to describe a nosocomial outbreak caused by methicillin resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) ST71 SCCmec II-III in dogs and cats at the Veterinary Teaching Hospital of the University of Helsinki in November 2010 – January 2012, and to determine the risk factors for acquiring MRSP. In addition, measures to control the outbreak and current policy for MRSP prevention are presented. Methods Data of patients were collected from the hospital patient record software. MRSP surveillance data were acquired from the laboratory information system. Risk factors for MRSP acquisition were analyzed from 55 cases and 213 controls using multivariable logistic regression in a case-control study design. Forty-seven MRSP isolates were analyzed by pulsed field gel electrophoresis and three were further analyzed with multi-locus sequence and SCCmec typing. Results Sixty-three MRSP cases were identified, including 27 infections. MRSPs from the cases shared a specific multi-drug resistant antibiogram and PFGE-pattern indicated clonal spread. Four risk factors were identified; skin lesion (OR = 6.2; CI95% 2.3–17.0, P = 0.0003), antimicrobial treatment (OR = 3.8, CI95% 1.0–13.9, P = 0.0442), cumulative number of days in the intensive care unit (OR = 1.3, CI95% 1.1–1.6, P = 0.0007) or in the surgery ward (OR = 1.1, CI95% 1.0–1.3, P = 0.0401). Tracing and screening of contact patients, enhanced hand hygiene, cohorting and barrier nursing, as well as cleaning and disinfection were used to control the outbreak. To avoid future outbreaks and spread of MRSP a search-and-isolate policy was implemented. Currently nearly all new MRSP findings are detected in screening targeted to risk patients on admission. Conclusion Multidrug resistant MRSP is capable of causing a large outbreak difficult to control. Skin lesions, antimicrobial treatment and prolonged hospital stay increase the probability of acquiring

  15. Large outbreak caused by methicillin resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius ST71 in a Finnish Veterinary Teaching Hospital--from outbreak control to outbreak prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Grönthal

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to describe a nosocomial outbreak caused by methicillin resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP ST71 SCCmec II-III in dogs and cats at the Veterinary Teaching Hospital of the University of Helsinki in November 2010 - January 2012, and to determine the risk factors for acquiring MRSP. In addition, measures to control the outbreak and current policy for MRSP prevention are presented. METHODS: Data of patients were collected from the hospital patient record software. MRSP surveillance data were acquired from the laboratory information system. Risk factors for MRSP acquisition were analyzed from 55 cases and 213 controls using multivariable logistic regression in a case-control study design. Forty-seven MRSP isolates were analyzed by pulsed field gel electrophoresis and three were further analyzed with multi-locus sequence and SCCmec typing. RESULTS: Sixty-three MRSP cases were identified, including 27 infections. MRSPs from the cases shared a specific multi-drug resistant antibiogram and PFGE-pattern indicated clonal spread. Four risk factors were identified; skin lesion (OR = 6.2; CI95% 2.3-17.0, P = 0.0003, antimicrobial treatment (OR = 3.8, CI95% 1.0-13.9, P = 0.0442, cumulative number of days in the intensive care unit (OR = 1.3, CI95% 1.1-1.6, P = 0.0007 or in the surgery ward (OR = 1.1, CI95% 1.0-1.3, P = 0.0401. Tracing and screening of contact patients, enhanced hand hygiene, cohorting and barrier nursing, as well as cleaning and disinfection were used to control the outbreak. To avoid future outbreaks and spread of MRSP a search-and-isolate policy was implemented. Currently nearly all new MRSP findings are detected in screening targeted to risk patients on admission. CONCLUSION: Multidrug resistant MRSP is capable of causing a large outbreak difficult to control. Skin lesions, antimicrobial treatment and prolonged hospital stay increase the probability of acquiring MRSP. Rigorous control

  16. Swine flu - A pandemic outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jini George

    Full Text Available Hippocrates had described influenza like outbreak in 412 B.C. and since then repeated influenza like epidemics and pandemics have been recorded in recent times. One of the greatest killers of all time was the pandemic of swine flu (Spanish flu of 1918-1919, when 230 million people died. Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population, resulting in severe illness in 3–5 million patients causing 250,000–500,000 deaths worldwide. Severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients. The 2009 outbreak of swine flu is thought to be a mutation more specifically a reassortment of four known strains of influenza A virus subtype H1N1; one endemic in humans, one endemic in birds, and two endemic in pigs. WHO officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11, 2009, but stressed that the new designation was a result of the global "spread of the virus," not its severity. [Vet World 2009; 2(12.000: 472-474

  17. Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver J. Brady

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings.

  18. Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12-24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimenko, V. M.; Lozitsky, V. G.

    2018-06-01

    We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf's numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946-1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44 years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44 years.

  19. Worldwide variation in atmospheric noise intensities with sunspot number: an in-depth look at the 20 to 24 hour seasonal time block

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joglekar, P.J.; Sathiamurthy, T.S.

    1975-01-01

    Comparisons of the variation of atmospheric radio noise intensities for 20 to 24 hr to sunspot numbers have been completed. Statistical dependence between the noise intensities and sunspot numbers was found for different seasons at a number of frequencies for many locations in the global network of ARN-2 noise recorders. The noise intensities generally tended to decrease with sunspot number in the range from 50 kHz to 5 MHz, which is presumed to be due to increases in residual ionospheric absorption during nighttime. At frequencies greater than 5 MHz, noise intensities increased with sunspot number in many cases, which would be expected from our present knowledge of ionospheric behavior in the HF range. By convention, CCIR treats year-to-year variation in the noise intensities as random and includes them in the prediction uncertainty sigma /sub Fam/ (for which one value is given at a frequency for a seasonal time block for all locations) in system performance evaluation. An error analysis on a global basis shows that a large portion of the year-to-year variability is due to sunspot variation. This suggests the possibility of improved noise estimates. (auth)

  20. Outbreak of ocular toxoplasmosis in Coimbatore, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palanisamy Manikandan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that infects up to a third of the world′s population. Infection is mainly acquired by ingestion of food that is contaminated with oocysts. We report an outbreak of ocular toxoplasmosis, which is an acute acquired type rather than reactivation of congenital toxoplasmosis. Our preliminary investigation points to municipal water contamination. This outbreak only proves the need of an effective public health system and health education in curtailing any outbreak.

  1. A SOLAR FLARE DISTURBING A LIGHT WALL ABOVE A SUNSPOT LIGHT BRIDGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Leping; Li, Xiaohong, E-mail: yijunhou@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2016-10-01

    With the high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph , we detect a light wall above a sunspot light bridge in the NOAA active region (AR) 12403. In the 1330 Å slit-jaw images, the light wall is brighter than the ambient areas while the wall top and base are much brighter than the wall body, and it keeps oscillating above the light bridge. A C8.0 flare caused by a filament activation occurred in this AR with the peak at 02:52 UT on 2015 August 28, and the flare’s one ribbon overlapped the light bridge, which was the observational base of the light wall. Consequently, the oscillation of the light wall was evidently disturbed. The mean projective oscillation amplitude of the light wall increased from 0.5 to 1.6 Mm before the flare and decreased to 0.6 Mm after the flare. We suggest that the light wall shares a group of magnetic field lines with the flare loops, which undergo a magnetic reconnection process, and they constitute a coupled system. When the magnetic field lines are pushed upward at the pre-flare stage, the light wall turns to the vertical direction, resulting in the increase of the light wall’s projective oscillation amplitude. After the magnetic reconnection takes place, a group of new field lines with smaller scales are formed underneath the reconnection site, and the light wall inclines. Thus, the projective amplitude notably decrease at the post-flare stage.

  2. A SOLAR FLARE DISTURBING A LIGHT WALL ABOVE A SUNSPOT LIGHT BRIDGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Leping; Li, Xiaohong

    2016-01-01

    With the high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph , we detect a light wall above a sunspot light bridge in the NOAA active region (AR) 12403. In the 1330 Å slit-jaw images, the light wall is brighter than the ambient areas while the wall top and base are much brighter than the wall body, and it keeps oscillating above the light bridge. A C8.0 flare caused by a filament activation occurred in this AR with the peak at 02:52 UT on 2015 August 28, and the flare’s one ribbon overlapped the light bridge, which was the observational base of the light wall. Consequently, the oscillation of the light wall was evidently disturbed. The mean projective oscillation amplitude of the light wall increased from 0.5 to 1.6 Mm before the flare and decreased to 0.6 Mm after the flare. We suggest that the light wall shares a group of magnetic field lines with the flare loops, which undergo a magnetic reconnection process, and they constitute a coupled system. When the magnetic field lines are pushed upward at the pre-flare stage, the light wall turns to the vertical direction, resulting in the increase of the light wall’s projective oscillation amplitude. After the magnetic reconnection takes place, a group of new field lines with smaller scales are formed underneath the reconnection site, and the light wall inclines. Thus, the projective amplitude notably decrease at the post-flare stage.

  3. Extending Counter-streaming Motion from an Active Region Filament to a Sunspot Light Bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haimin; Liu, Rui; Li, Qin; Liu, Chang; Deng, Na; Xu, Yan; Jing, Ju; Wang, Yuming; Cao, Wenda

    2018-01-01

    We analyze high-resolution observations from the 1.6 m telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory that cover an active region filament. Counter-streaming motions are clearly observed in the filament. The northern end of the counter-streaming motions extends to a light bridge, forming a spectacular circulation pattern around a sunspot, with clockwise motion in the blue wing and counterclockwise motion in the red wing, as observed in the Hα off-bands. The apparent speed of the flow is around 10–60 km s‑1 in the filament, decreasing to 5–20 km s‑1 in the light bridge. The most intriguing results are the magnetic structure and the counter-streaming motions in the light bridge. Similar to those in the filament, the magnetic fields show a dominant transverse component in the light bridge. However, the filament is located between opposed magnetic polarities, while the light bridge is between strong fields of the same polarity. We analyze the power of oscillations with the image sequences of constructed Dopplergrams, and find that the filament’s counter-streaming motion is due to physical mass motion along fibrils, while the light bridge’s counter-streaming motion is due to oscillation in the direction along the line-of-sight. The oscillation power peaks around 4 minutes. However, the section of the light bridge next to the filament also contains a component of the extension of the filament in combination with the oscillation, indicating that some strands of the filament are extended to and rooted in that part of the light bridge.

  4. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  5. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  6. Statistics of severe tornadoes and severe tornado outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Malamud

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The standard measures of the intensity of a tornado in the USA and many other countries are the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales. These scales are based on the damage that a tornado causes. Another measure of the strength of a tornado is its path length of touchdown, L. In this study we consider severe tornadoes, which we define as L≥10 km, in the continental USA (USA Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Database. We find that for the period 1982–2011, for individual severe tornadoes (L≥10 km: (i There is a strong linear scaling between the number of severe tornadoes in a year and their total path length in that year. (ii The cumulative frequency path length data suggests that, not taking into account any changing trends over time, we would expect in a given year (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥115 km and in a decade (on average one severe tornado with a path length L≥215 km. (iii The noncumulative frequency-length statistics of severe tornado touchdown path lengths, 20<L<200 km, is well approximated by an inverse power-law relationship with exponent near 3. We then take the total path length of severe tornadoes in a convective day (12:00–12:00 UTC, LD, as a measure of the strength of a 24-h USA tornado outbreak. We find that: (i For 1982–2011, the number of severe tornadoes in a USA convective day outbreak has a strong power-law relationship (exponent 0.80 on the convective day total path length, LD. (ii For 1952–2011, the cumulative frequency path length data for severe tornado outbreaks suggests that we would expect in a given year (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with total path length LD≥480 km and in a decade (on average one daily severe tornado outbreak with a total path length LD≥1200 km. (iii For 1982–2011, the noncumulative frequency-length statistics of tornado

  7. Typing of vancomycin-resistant enterococci with MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry in a nosocomial outbreak setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzknecht, B J; Dargis, R; Pedersen, M; Pinholt, M; Christensen, J J

    2018-03-23

    To investigate the usefulness of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) typing as a first-line epidemiological tool in a nosocomial outbreak of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm). Fifty-five VREfm isolates, previously characterized by whole-genome sequencing (WGS), were included and analysed by MALDI-TOF MS. To take peak reproducibility into account, ethanol/formic acid extraction and other steps of the protocol were conducted in triplicate. Twenty-seven spectra were generated per isolate, and spectra were visually inspected to determine discriminatory peaks. The presence or absence of these was recorded in a peak scheme. Nine discriminatory peaks were identified. A characteristic pattern of these could distinguish between the three major WGS groups: WGS I, WGS II and WGS III. Only one of 38 isolates belonging to WGS I, WGS II or WGS III was misclassified. However, ten of the 17 isolates not belonging to WGS I, II or III displayed peak patterns indistinguishable from those of the outbreak strain. Using visual inspection of spectra, MALDI-TOF MS typing proved to be useful in differentiating three VREfm outbreak clones from each other. However, as non-outbreak isolates could not be reliably differentiated from outbreak clones, the practical value of this typing method for VREfm outbreak management was limited in our setting. Copyright © 2018 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Molecular epidemiology of human oral Chagas disease outbreaks in Colombia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan David Ramírez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, displays significant genetic variability revealed by six Discrete Typing Units (TcI-TcVI. In this pathology, oral transmission represents an emerging epidemiological scenario where different outbreaks associated to food/beverages consumption have been reported in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela. In Colombia, six human oral outbreaks have been reported corroborating the importance of this transmission route. Molecular epidemiology of oral outbreaks is barely known observing the incrimination of TcI, TcII, TcIV and TcV genotypes. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: High-throughput molecular characterization was conducted performing MLMT (Multilocus Microsatellite Typing and mtMLST (mitochondrial Multilocus Sequence Typing strategies on 50 clones from ten isolates. Results allowed observing the occurrence of TcI, TcIV and mixed infection of distinct TcI genotypes. Thus, a majority of specific mitochondrial haplotypes and allelic multilocus genotypes associated to the sylvatic cycle of transmission were detected in the dataset with the foreseen presence of mitochondrial haplotypes and allelic multilocus genotypes associated to the domestic cycle of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the incrimination of sylvatic genotypes in the oral outbreaks occurred in Colombia. We observed patterns of super-infection and/or co-infection with a tailored association with the severe forms of myocarditis in the acute phase of the disease. The transmission dynamics of this infection route based on molecular epidemiology evidence was unraveled and the clinical and biological implications are discussed.

  9. Control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae outbreaks in acute settings: an evidence review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, C E; Coope, C; Conway, L; Higgins, J P T; McCulloch, J; Okoli, G; Patel, B C; Oliver, I

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, infections with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) have been increasing globally and present a major public health challenge. To review the international literature: (i) to describe CPE outbreaks in acute hospital settings globally; and (ii) to identify the control measures used during these outbreaks and report on their effectiveness. A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, abstract lists for key conferences and reference lists of key reviews was undertaken, and information on unpublished outbreaks was sought for 2000-2015. Where relevant, risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A narrative synthesis of the evidence was conducted. Ninety-eight outbreaks were eligible. These occurred worldwide, with 53 reports from Europe. The number of cases (CPE infection or colonization) involved in outbreaks varied widely, from two to 803. In the vast majority of outbreaks, multi-component infection control measures were used, commonly including: patient screening; contact precautions (e.g. gowns, gloves); handwashing interventions; staff education or monitoring; enhanced environmental cleaning/decontamination; cohorting of patients and/or staff; and patient isolation. Seven studies were identified as providing the best-available evidence on the effectiveness of control measures. These demonstrated that CPE outbreaks can be controlled successfully using a range of appropriate, commonly used, infection control measures. However, risk of bias was considered relatively high for these studies. The findings indicate that CPE outbreaks can be controlled using combinations of existing measures. However, the quality of the evidence base is weak and further high-quality research is needed, particularly on the effectiveness of individual infection control measures. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Measles Outbreak among Unvaccinated Children in Bajura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Sitaula

    2010-12-01

    CFR of this outbreak is higher than the national CFR. Vaccine efficacy of 50% points towards the need for investigation of vaccine logistics and cold chain system. Moreover, this laboratory test confirmed an outbreak showing that the measles virus could be imported from an endemic region and rapidly spread through a susceptible population who were previously not immunized.

  11. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  12. MRSA outbreak at a transplantation unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RMC Romanelli

    Full Text Available Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA infections frequently complicate the post-operative course of transplant recipients, and despite nasal carriage and endemic colonization, MRSA outbreaks are not commonly described. This study reports a case of MRSA outbreak and discusses infection control measures and recommendations for this situation.

  13. Salmonella outbreak among railway and airline passengers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatakka, M

    1992-01-01

    A widespread outbreak by Salmonella infantis, infecting a total of 226 people, occurred in Finland at the beginning of August 1986. Of those infected, 107 were railway passengers, 91 were airline passengers and 28 were employed in a food processing establishment. The outbreak among the railway passengers was caused by egg sandwiches, the airline passengers were infected by a meal served on board and the catering employees by the breakfast served in the establishment. The outbreak was caused by food prepared in the establishment's kitchen. The employees' breakfasts had probably been contaminated by an employee who was a symptom-free Salmonella infantis carrier, and a number of the employees subsequently became infected, leading to widespread contamination of the food prepared in the establishment. The spread of the outbreak was further influenced by a heatwave at the time and by shortcomings in the cold storage facilities. The kitchen's hygiene supervision and the quality control of its output were reorganized after the outbreak.

  14. Period of sunspot numbers is 11.02653720 years (11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norita, Sadataka

    1976-01-01

    In the statistical analysis of time series there have been applied usually the stationary stochastic process or the Markov stochastic process and recently there are applied remarkably an autoregressive process, a stochastic difference equation, an autoregressive-moving average process, a moving average process, the Whittaker periodogram, the correlogram, Schuster periodogram, chi-squared periodogram, level crossings, harmonic process, difference method, spectral density and first order vector equation, but in special case it is desirable to apply the nonstationary stocastic process. In this paper we introduce an stationarity into the autoregressive process and then it is the first purpose to compute precisely period of sunspot numbers. The result up to the eighth places at the decimal point was obtained that its period is 11.02653720 years, that is, 11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds. This is considered to be more relevant than numerical values by which Schuster (1906) and Yule (1927) had calculated the respective 11.125 years and 10.60 years in the past. We revised the theoretical expression in the thesis of Anderson, Shaman, Lindgren, Brillinger, Newbold, Parzen, Kingman, Van Ness and Kenneth, etc. and executed the numerical analysis of period of sunspot numbers investigated now. (auth.)

  15. Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. I - Quiet sun time series and sunspot slices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deming, Drake; Boyle, Robert J.; Jennings, Donald E.; Wiedemann, Gunter

    1988-01-01

    The use of the extremely Zeeman-sensitive IR emission line Mg I, at 12.32 microns, to study solar magnetic fields. Time series observations of the line in the quiet sun were obtained in order to determine the response time of the line to the five-minute oscillations. Based upon the velocity amplitude and average period measured in the line, it is concluded that it is formed in the temperature minimum region. The magnetic structure of sunspots is investigated by stepping a small field of view in linear 'slices' through the spots. The region of penumbral line formation does not show the Evershed outflow common in photospheric lines. The line intensity is a factor of two greater in sunspot penumbrae than in the photosphere, and at the limb the penumbral emission begins to depart from optical thinness, the line source function increasing with height. For a spot near disk center, the radial decrease in absolute magnetic field strength is steeper than the generally accepted dependence.

  16. Determination of the Alfvén Speed and Plasma-beta Using the Seismology of Sunspot Umbra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, I.-H.; Moon, Y.-J.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Park, J.; Choi, S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, K.-S.; Bong, S.-C.; Baek, J.-H.; Kim, Y.-H.; Lee, J., E-mail: ihjo@khu.ac.kr [Space Science Division, Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-01

    For 478 centrally located sunspots observed in the optical continuum with Solar Dynamics Observatory /Helioseismic Magnetic Imager, we perform seismological diagnostics of the physical parameters of umbral photospheres. The new technique is based on the theory of slow magnetoacoustic waves in a non-isothermally stratified photosphere with a uniform vertical magnetic field. We construct a map of the weighted frequency of three-minute oscillations inside the umbra and use it for the estimation of the Alfvén speed, plasma-beta, and mass density within the umbra. We find the umbral mean Alfvén speed ranges between 10.5 and 7.5 km s{sup −1} and is negatively correlated with magnetic field strength. The umbral mean plasma-beta is found to range approximately between 0.65 and 1.15 and does not vary significantly from pores to mature sunspots. The mean density ranges between (1–6) × 10{sup −4} kg m{sup −3} and shows a strong positive correlation with magnetic field strength.

  17. Period of sunspot numbers is 11. 02653720 years (11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norita, S [Miyazaki Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1976-09-01

    In the statistical analysis of time series there have been applied usually the stationary stochastic process or the Markov stochastic process and recently there are applied remarkably an autoregressive process, a stochastic difference equation, an autoregressive-moving average process, a moving average process, the Whittaker periodogram, the correlogram, Schuster periodogram, chi-squared periodogram, level crossings, harmonic process, difference method, spectral density and first order vector equation, but in special case it is desirable to apply the nonstationary stocastic process. In this paper we introduce a stationarity into the autoregressive process and then it is the first purpose to compute precisely the period of sunspot numbers. The result up to the eighth places at the decimal point was obtained that its period is 11.02653720 years, that is, 11 years 9 days 16 hours 18 minutes 0 seconds. This is considered to be more relevant than numerical values by which Schuster (1906) and Yule (1927) had calculated the respective 11.125 years and 10.60 years in the past. We revised the theoretical expression in the thesis of Anderson, Shaman, Lindgren, Brillinger, Newbold, Parzen, Kingman, Van Ness and Kenneth, etc. and executed the numerical analysis of period of sunspot numbers investigated now.

  18. Pasteurella multocida from outbreaks of avian cholera in wild and captive birds in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Karl; Dietz, Hans-Henrik; Jørgensen, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    An outbreak of avian cholera was observed among wild birds in a few localities in Denmark in 2001. The highest mortalities were among breeding ciders (Somateria mollissima) and gulls (Larus spp.). Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) was conducted using ApaI and SmaI as restriction enzymes...... the outbreak strain. Among 68 isolates from wild birds, only one PFGE and one REA pattern were demonstrated, whereas among 23 isolates from domestic poultry, 14 different SmaI, 12 different ApaI, and 10 different HpaII patterns were found. The results suggest that a P. multocida strain has survived during...

  19. Normal and counter Evershed flows in the photospheric penumbra of a sunspot SPINOR 2D inversions of Hinode-SOT/SP observations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Siu-Tapia, A.; Lagg, A.; Solanki, S.K.; van Noort, M.; Jurčák, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 607, November (2017), A36/1-A36/17 E-ISSN 1432-0746 Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : sunspots * photosphere * magnetic fields Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OBOR OECD: Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science) Impact factor: 5.014, year: 2016

  20. HIGH RESOLUTION He i 10830 Å NARROW-BAND IMAGING OF AN M-CLASS FLARE. I. ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT DYNAMICS DURING FLARING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Ya; Su, Yingna; Hong, Zhenxiang; Ji, Haisheng [Key Laboratory of DMSA, Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing, 210008 (China); Zeng, Zhicheng; Goode, Philip R.; Cao, Wenda [Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Ji, Kaifan [Yunnan Astronomical Observatories, Kunming 650011 (China)

    2016-12-20

    In this paper, we report our first-step results of high resolution He i 10830 Å narrow-band imaging (bandpass: 0.5 Å) of an M1.8 class two-ribbon flare on 2012 July 5. The flare was observed with the 1.6 m aperture New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. For this unique data set, sunspot dynamics during flaring were analyzed for the first time. By directly imaging the upper chromosphere, running penumbral waves are clearly seen as an outward extension of umbral flashes; both take the form of absorption in the 10830 Å narrow-band images. From a space–time image made of a slit cutting across a flare ribbon and the sunspot, we find that the dark lanes for umbral flashes and penumbral waves are obviously broadened after the flare. The most prominent feature is the sudden appearance of an oscillating absorption strip inside the ribbon when it sweeps into the sunspot’s penumbral and umbral regions. During each oscillation, outwardly propagating umbral flashes and subsequent penumbral waves rush out into the inwardly sweeping ribbon, followed by a return of the absorption strip with similar speed. We tentatively explain the phenomena as the result of a sudden increase in the density of ortho-helium atoms in the area of the sunspot being excited by the flare’s extreme ultraviolet illumination. This explanation is based on the observation that 10830 Å absorption around the sunspot area gets enhanced during the flare. Nevertheless, questions are still open and we need further well-devised observations to investigate the behavior of sunspot dynamics during flares.

  1. Estimating challenge load due to disease outbreaks and other challenges using reproduction records of sows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, P K; Herrero-Medrano, J M; Alexandri, P; Knol, E F; ten Napel, J; Rashidi, H; Mulder, H A

    2014-12-01

    A method was developed and tested to estimate challenge load due to disease outbreaks and other challenges in sows using reproduction records. The method was based on reproduction records from a farm with known disease outbreaks. It was assumed that the reduction in weekly reproductive output within a farm is proportional to the magnitude of the challenge. As the challenge increases beyond certain threshold, it is manifested as an outbreak. The reproduction records were divided into 3 datasets. The first dataset called the Training dataset consisted of 57,135 reproduction records from 10,901 sows from 1 farm in Canada with several outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). The known disease status of sows was regressed on the traits number born alive, number of losses as a combination of still birth and mummified piglets, and number of weaned piglets. The regression coefficients from this analysis were then used as weighting factors for derivation of an index measure called challenge load indicator. These weighting factors were derived with i) a two-step approach using residuals or year-week solutions estimated from a previous step, and ii) a single-step approach using the trait values directly. Two types of models were used for each approach: a logistic regression model and a general additive model. The estimates of challenge load indicator were then compared based on their ability to detect PRRS outbreaks in a Test dataset consisting of records from 65,826 sows from 15 farms in the Netherlands. These farms differed from the Canadian farm with respect to PRRS virus strains, severity and frequency of outbreaks. The single-step approach using a general additive model was best and detected 14 out of the 15 outbreaks. This approach was then further validated using the third dataset consisting of reproduction records of 831,855 sows in 431 farms located in different countries in Europe and America. A total of 41 out of 48 outbreaks detected

  2. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CHOLERA OUTBREAK IN KAMPALA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hi-tech

    77 No. 7 July 2000. EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CHOLERA OUTBREAK IN KAMPALA, UGANDA ... spread much (106 cases in 1995), resulting in a low level of immunity ... An intensive social ... development of a network of community health workers,.

  3. Infection control during filoviral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N Raabe Vanessa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Breaking the human-to-human transmission cycle remains the cornerstone of infection control during filoviral (Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. This requires effective identification and isolation of cases, timely contact tracing and monitoring, proper usage of barrier personal protection gear by health workers, and safely conducted burials. Solely implementing these measures is insufficient for infection control; control efforts must be culturally sensitive and conducted in a transparent manner to promote the necessary trust between the community and infection control team in order to succeed. This article provides a review of the literature on infection control during filoviral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks focusing on outbreaks in a developing setting and lessons learned from previous outbreaks. The primary search database used to review the literature was PUBMED, the National Library of Medicine website.

  4. Carcass Management During Avian Influenza Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page on Avian Influenza (AI) describes carcass management during Avian Flu outbreaks, including who oversees carcass management, how they're managed, environmental concerns from carcass management, and disinfection. The page also describes what AI is.

  5. An outbreak of food poisoning due to egg yolk reaction-negative Staphylococcus aureus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miwa, N; Kawamura, A; Masuda, T; Akiyama, M

    2001-03-20

    An outbreak of staphylococcal food poisoning due to an egg yolk (EY) reaction-negative strain occurred in Japan. Twenty-one of 53 dam construction workers who ate boxed lunches prepared at their company cafeteria became ill, and eight required hospital treatment. The outbreak showed a typical incubation time (1.5-4 h with a median time of 2.7 h) and symptoms (vomiting and diarrhea) of staphylococcal food poisoning. Staphylococcus aureus, which produces staphylococcal enterotoxin (SE) A, was isolated from four fecal specimens of eight patients tested. Scrambled egg in the boxed lunches contained 20-40 ng/g of SEA, and 3.0 x 10(9)/g of viable S. aureus cells that produced this toxin. All isolates from patients and the food were EY reaction-negative, coagulase type II, and showed the same restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) pattern. We concluded that the outbreak was caused by scrambled egg contaminated with EY reaction-negative S. aureus. In Japan, outbreaks of staphylococcal food poisoning are mainly caused by EY reaction-positive S. aureus, and EY reaction-negative colonies grown on agar plates containing EY are usually not analyzed further for detection of S. aureus. The present outbreak suggested that EY reaction-negative isolates should be subjected to further analysis to detect the causative agents of staphylococcal food poisoning.

  6. [EPIDEMIOLOGIC FEATURES OFNOROVIRUS INFECTION OUTBREAK IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH OSSETIA-ALANIA].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maletskaya, O V; Tibilov, A G; Prislegina, D A; Gazieva, G K; Otaraeva, N I; Volynkina, A S; Saveliev, V N; Lyamkin, G I; Zaitsev, A A; Kulichenko, A N

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of epidemiologic features of a norovirus outbreak in Alagir city of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania and effectiveness of measures of its liquidation. Data from maps-schemes of water supply system of Alagir city and statistical documentation of Centre of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania were used in the study. Indication of norovirus in clinical material and water samples was carried out bypolymerase chain reaction method. Etiological agent of outbreak disease was established--genotype II norovirus. Realization of fecal-oral mechanisms of water transmission pathway of the causative agent of norovirus infection was detected. Conditions facilitating emergence and development of the indicated outbreak were determined--non-satisfactory sanitary-technical condition of water. supply system of the city. The studied water outbreak of norovirus infection was caused by GII.17 genotype virus, that currently gradually displaces GII.IV genotype, and was characterized by an intensive start, involvement of all population age groups into the epidemic process (with primary infection of adults), low family focality, predominance of average severity disease forms in the clinical presentation. The counter-epidemic measures carried out ensured rapid localization and liquidation of the norovirus infection outbreak.

  7. Giardiasis in Bergen. Outbreak and clinical consequences.

    OpenAIRE

    Wensaas, Knut-Arne

    2011-01-01

    Background Giardia lamblia is a common cause of waterborne disease. It is endemic in many parts of the world, especially where sanitation is poor, but in Europe and North America it is most often encountered in outbreaks following contamination of drinking water. The first registered outbreak of giardiasis affecting a large community in Norway happened in Bergen in the autumn of 2004. The reservoir “Svartediket” was the source, and the water probably held Giardia cysts for s...

  8. Establishing a milkborne disease outbreak profile: potential food defense implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newkirk, Ryan; Hedberg, Craig; Bender, Jeff

    2011-03-01

    The main objectives of this study were to establish baseline characteristics for milkborne outbreaks, establish an expected milkborne outbreak profile, and identify potential indicators of food terrorism. This study used 1990-2006 data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Annual Listings of Disease Outbreaks and the Foodborne Outbreak Database (FOOD) to establish epidemiologic baseline characteristics for disease outbreaks associated with fluid milk. FOOD data from 2007 were used to qualitatively validate the potential of the baseline characteristics and the expected outbreak profile. Eighty-three fluid milkborne outbreaks were reported between 1990 and 2006, resulting in 3621 illnesses. The mean number of illnesses per outbreak was 43.6 (illness range: 2-1644). Consumption of unpasteurized milk was associated with 55.4% of reported outbreaks. Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli, and Salmonella spp. caused 51.2%, 10.8%, and 9.6% of reported outbreaks, respectively. Private homes accounted for 41.0% of outbreak locations. Number ill, outbreak location, and etiology were the primary characteristics which could signal a potential intentional contamination event. In 2007, one pasteurized milk outbreak caused by Listeria was flagged as aberrative compared with the expected outbreak profile. The creation and dissemination of expected outbreak profiles and epidemiologic baseline characteristics allow public health and Homeland Security officials to quickly assess the potential of intentional food contamination. A faster public health and medical system response can result in decreased morbidity and mortality.

  9. Measles & rubella outbreaks in Maharashtra State, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Sunil R.; Kamble, Madhukar B.; Chowdhury, Deepika T.; Kumbhar, Neelakshi S.

    2016-01-01

    Background & objectives: Under the outbreak-based measles surveillance in Maharashtra State the National Institute of Virology at Pune receives 3-5 serum samples from each outbreak and samples from the local hospitals in Pune for laboratory diagnosis. This report describes one year data on the measles and rubella serology, virus isolation and genotyping. Methods: Maharashtra State Health Agencies investigated 98 suspected outbreaks between January-December 2013 in the 20 districts. Altogether, 491 serum samples were received from 20 districts and 126 suspected cases from local hospitals. Samples were tested for the measles and rubella IgM antibodies by commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA). To understand the diagnostic utility, a subset of serum samples (n=53) was tested by measles focus reduction neutralization test (FRNT). Further, 37 throat swabs and 32 urine specimens were tested by measles reverse transcription (RT)-PCR and positive products were sequenced. Virus isolation was performed in Vero hSLAM cells. Results: Of the 98 suspected measles outbreaks, 61 were confirmed as measles, 12 as rubella and 21 confirmed as the mixed outbreaks. Four outbreaks remained unconfirmed. Of the 126 cases from the local hospitals, 91 were confirmed for measles and three for rubella. Overall, 93.6 per cent (383/409) confirmed measles cases were in the age group of 0-15 yr. Measles virus was detected in 18 of 38 specimens obtained from the suspected cases. Sequencing of PCR products revealed circulation of D4 (n=9) and D8 (n=9) strains. Four measles viruses (three D4 & one D8) were isolated. Interpretation & conclusions: Altogether, 94 measles and rubella outbreaks were confirmed in 2013 in the State of Maharasthra indicating the necessity to increase measles vaccine coverage in the State. PMID:27121521

  10. cobalt (ii), nickel (ii)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    Department of Chemistry Bayero University, P. M. B. 3011, Kano, Nigeria. E-mail: hnuhu2000@yahoo.com. ABSTRACT. The manganese (II), cobalt (II), nickel (II) and .... water and common organic solvents, but are readily soluble in acetone. The molar conductance measurement [Table 3] of the complex compounds in.

  11. [Hospital hygiene - outbreak management of nosocomial infections].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerwat, Klaus; Wulf, Hinnerk

    2012-04-01

    According to §6, section 3 of the German Protection against Infections Act [Infektionsschutzgesetz (IfSG)] an outbreak is defined as the occurrence in large numbers of nosocomial infections for which an epidemiological relationship is probable or can be assumed. About 2-10% of nosocomial infections in hospitals (about 5% in intensive care wards) occur within the framework of an outbreak. The heaped occurrence of nosocomial infections can be declared according to the prescribed surveillance of nosocomial infections (§23 IfSG) when, in the course of this assessment, a statistically significant increase in the rate of infections becomes apparent. On the other hand, the occurrence of an outbreak can also be recognized through the vigilance of all involved personnel and a general sensibilization towards this subject. The names of patients involved in outbreaks need not be reported to the responsible health authorities. As a consequence of the report the health authorities become involved in the investigation to determine the cause and its elimination, and to provide support and advice. The outbreak management should be oriented on the respective recommendations of the Robert Koch Institute. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

  12. Simple visit behavior unifies complex Zika outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.D. Manrique

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available New outbreaks of Zika in the U.S. are imminent. Human nature dictates that many individuals will continue to revisit affected ‘Ground Zero’ patches, whether out of choice, work or family reasons − yet this feature is missing from traditional epidemiological analyses. Here we show that this missing visit-revisit mechanism is by itself capable of explaining quantitatively the 2016 human Zika outbreaks in all three Ground Zero patches. Our findings reveal counterintuitive ways in which this human flow can be managed to tailor any future outbreak’s duration, severity and time-to-peak. Effective public health planning can leverage these results to impact the evolution of future outbreaks via soft control of the overall human flow, as well as to suggest best-practice visitation behavior for local residents.

  13. Landscape Epidemiology of Tularemia Outbreaks in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Kerstin; Bäck, Erik; Eliasson, Henrik; Berglund, Lennart; Granberg, Malin; Karlsson, Linda; Larsson, Pär; Forsman, Mats

    2009-01-01

    Summer outbreaks of tularemia that occurred from 1995 through 2005 in 2 locations in Sweden affected 441 persons. We performed an epidemiologic investigation of these outbreaks using a novel strategy, involving high-resolution genotyping of Francisella tularensis isolates obtained from 136 patients (using 18 genetic markers developed from 6 F. tularensis genome sequences) and interviews with the patients. Strong spatial associations were found between F. tularensis subpopulations and the places of disease transmission; infection by some subpopulations occurred within areas as small as 2 km2, indicating unidentified environmental point sources of tularemia. In both locations, disease clusters were associated with recreational areas beside water, and genetic subpopulations were present throughout the tularemia season and persisted over years. High-resolution genotyping in combination with patients’ statements about geographic places of disease transmission provided valuable indications of likely sources of infection and the causal genotypes during these tularemia outbreaks. PMID:19961673

  14. An Outbreak of Foodborne Botulism in Ontario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona R Loutfy

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Botulism is a rare paralytic illness resulting from a potent neurotoxin produced by Clostridium botulinum. Botulism in Canada is predominately due to C botulinum type E and affects mainly the First Nations and Inuit populations. The most recent outbreak of botulism in Ontario was in Ottawa in 1991 and was caused by C botulinum type A. We report an outbreak of foodborne type B botulism in Ontario, which implicated home-canned tomatoes. The outbreak was characterized by mild symptoms in two cases and moderately severe illness in one case. The investigation shows the importance of considering the diagnosis of botulism in patients presenting with cranial nerve and autonomic dysfunction, especially when combined with gastrointestinal complaints; it also highlights the importance of proper home canning technique.

  15. Detecting and Responding to a Dengue Outbreak: Evaluation of Existing Strategies in Country Outbreak Response Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Harrington

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Dengue outbreaks are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity. Evidence-based epidemic preparedness and effective response are now a matter of urgency. Therefore, we have analysed national and municipal dengue outbreak response plans. Methods. Thirteen country plans from Asia, Latin America and Australia, and one international plan were obtained from the World Health Organization. The information was transferred to a data analysis matrix where information was extracted according to predefined and emerging themes and analysed for scope, inconsistencies, omissions, and usefulness. Findings. Outbreak response planning currently has a considerable number of flaws. Outbreak governance was weak with a lack of clarity of stakeholder roles. Late timing of responses due to poor surveillance, a lack of combining routine data with additional alerts, and lack of triggers for initiating the response weakened the functionality of plans. Frequently an outbreak was not defined, and early response mechanisms based on alert signals were neglected. There was a distinct lack of consideration of contextual influences which can affect how an outbreak detection and response is managed. Conclusion. A model contingency plan for dengue outbreak prediction, detection, and response may help national disease control authorities to develop their own more detailed and functional context specific plans.

  16. Salmonellosis outbreak due to chicken contact leading to a foodborne outbreak associated with infected delicatessen workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedican, Erin; Miller, Ben; Ziemer, Brian; LeMaster, Pam; Jawahir, Selina; Leano, Fe; Smith, Kirk

    2010-08-01

    Salmonella is the most common bacterial cause of foodborne outbreaks in the United States. Starting in June 2007, investigation of a cluster of Salmonella Montevideo cases with indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns resulted in the identification of an outbreak associated with contact with chickens purchased from a single hatchery. Nine Minnesota cases from May through August 2007 were part of this outbreak. Cases with the outbreak PFGE pattern of Salmonella Montevideo continued to occur in Minnesota after August, but none of these cases reported chicken contact. The majority of these cases resided in the same town in rural Minnesota. Routine interviews revealed that all cases from these counties purchased groceries from the same local grocery store, with two specifically reporting consuming items from the grocery store delicatessen in the week before illness. As a result, an investigation into the delicatessen was initiated. Illness histories and stool samples were collected from all delicatessen employees, and food and environmental samples were collected. None of the employees reported experiencing recent gastrointestinal symptoms, but the outbreak PFGE subtype of Salmonella Montevideo was identified from stool from two food workers. Food and environmental samples collected tested negative for Salmonella. One of the positive employees reported having chickens at home, but the animals did not test positive for Salmonella. The positive food workers were excluded from work until they had two consecutive negative stool cultures for Salmonella. There was no evidence of ongoing transmission thereafter. This was an outbreak of Salmonella Montevideo infections that began as an animal-contact-associated outbreak which subsequently resulted in a foodborne outbreak associated with infected food workers. These outbreaks illustrate the complex epidemiology of salmonellosis.

  17. Hydrogen outbreak of Zirconium Molybdate Hihydrate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Yasuhiko; Fukuda, Kazuhiro; Ochi, Eiji

    2008-01-01

    JNFL is planning to construct a facility for enclosing the hull and end pieces produced due to reprocessing of spent fuel into stainless canisters after compressing, while those hull and end pieces enclosed into the stainless canisters are called 'compressed hulls'. Since the compressed hulls contain moisture absorbent Zirconium Molybdate Hihydrate accompanying hull and end pieces, there is a risk of outbreak of radiolysisradiolysis gas such as hydrogen, etc. by radiolysisradiolysis. This report intends to state the result of radiation irradiation experiment with the purpose of examining the volume of hydrogen outbreak from Zirconium Molybdate Hihydrate of the compressed hulls. (author)

  18. Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

    2018-06-01

    The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

  19. Coccidioidomycosis Outbreaks, United States and Worldwide, 1940-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Michael; Jackson, Brendan R; McCotter, Orion; Benedict, Kaitlin

    2018-03-01

    Coccidioidomycosis causes substantial illness and death in the United States each year. Although most cases are sporadic, outbreaks provide insight into the clinical and environmental features of coccidioidomycosis, high-risk activities, and the geographic range of Coccidioides fungi. We identified reports published in English of 47 coccidioidomycosis outbreaks worldwide that resulted in 1,464 cases during 1940-2015. Most (85%) outbreaks were associated with environmental exposures; the 2 largest outbreaks resulted from an earthquake and a large dust storm. More than one third of outbreaks occurred in areas where the fungus was not previously known to be endemic, and more than half of outbreaks involved occupational exposures. Coccidioidomycosis outbreaks can be difficult to detect and challenging to prevent given the unknown effectiveness of environmental control methods and personal protective equipment; therefore, increased awareness of coccidioidomycosis outbreaks is needed among public health professionals, healthcare providers, and the public.

  20. Analysis of epidemiological data of foodborne outbreak reported in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mehdi Soltan Dallal

    2015-02-01

    Conclusion: The knowledge of bacterial agent of foodborne diseases and determination of antimicrobial resistance pattern are helpful to reduce the rate of foodborne outbreaks, the cost of treatment. The prevention control of outbreaks is also very important.

  1. Disruption of predicted dengue virus type 3 major outbreak cycle coincided with switching of the dominant circulating virus genotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Kim-Kee; Zulkifle, Nurul-Izzani; Abd-Jamil, Juraina; Sulaiman, Syuhaida; Yaacob, Che Norainon; Azizan, Noor Syahida; Che Mat Seri, Nurul Asma Anati; Samsudin, Nur Izyan; Mahfodz, Nur Hidayana; AbuBakar, Sazaly

    2017-10-01

    Dengue is hyperendemic in most of Southeast Asia. In this region, all four dengue virus serotypes are persistently present. Major dengue outbreak cycle occurs in a cyclical pattern involving the different dengue virus serotypes. In Malaysia, since the 1980s, the major outbreak cycles have involved dengue virus type 3 (DENV3), dengue virus type 1 (DENV1) and dengue virus type 2 (DENV2), occurring in that order (DENV3/DENV1/DENV2). Only limited information on the DENV3 cycles, however, have been described. In the current study, we examined the major outbreak cycle involving DENV3 using data from 1985 to 2016. We examined the genetic diversity of DENV3 isolates obtained during the period when DENV3 was the dominant serotype and during the inter-dominant transmission period. Results obtained suggest that the typical DENV3/DENV1/DENV2 cyclical outbreak cycle in Malaysia has recently been disrupted. The last recorded major outbreak cycle involving DENV3 occurred in 2002, and the expected major outbreak cycle involving DENV3 in 2006-2012 did not materialize. DENV genome analyses revealed that DENV3 genotype II (DENV3/II) was the predominant DENV3 genotype (67%-100%) recovered between 1987 and 2002. DENV3 genotype I (DENV3/I) emerged in 2002 followed by the introduction of DENV3 genotype III (DENV3/III) in 2008. These newly emerged DENV3 genotypes replaced DENV3/II, but there was no major upsurge of DENV3 cases that accompanied the emergence of these viruses. DENV3 remained in the background of DENV1 and DENV2 until now. Virus genome sequence analysis suggested that intrinsic differences within the different dengue virus genotypes could have influenced the transmission efficiency of DENV3. Further studies and continuous monitoring of the virus are needed for better understanding of the DENV transmission dynamics in hyperendemic regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. An outbreak of Salmonella gastroenteritis in an urban jail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcabes, P; O'Sullivan, B; Nadal, E; Mouzon, M

    1988-12-01

    An outbreak of gastroenteritis in New York City's largest jail involved 145 cases over a two-month period. The outbreak was unusual in that two Salmonella strains (serogroups B and D) were involved. Management of the outbreak involved screening kitchen workers by culture of stool samples, and education regarding personal hygiene. Obstacles to investigation and management of the outbreak arose out of the special nature of the jail environment; these included jurisdictional problems and high turnover of the inmate population.

  3. Deciphering Dynamics of Recent Epidemic Spread and Outbreak in West Africa: The Case of Ebola Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

    Recently, the 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa was the largest outbreak to date. In this paper, an attempt has been made for modeling the virus dynamics using an SEIR model to better understand and characterize the transmission trajectories of the Ebola outbreak. We compare the simulated results with the most recent reported data of Ebola infected cases in the three most affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The epidemic model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and unique endemic equilibria. Existence and local stability of these equilibria are explored. Using central manifold theory, it is established that the transcritical bifurcation occurs when basic reproduction number passes through unity. The proposed Ebola epidemic model provides an estimate to the potential number of future cases. The model indicates that the disease will decline after peaking if multisectorial and multinational efforts to control the spread of infection are maintained. Possible implication of the results for disease eradication and its control are discussed which suggests that proper control strategies like: (i) transmission precautions, (ii) isolation and care of infectious Ebola patients, (iii) safe burial, (iv) contact tracing with follow-up and quarantine, and (v) early diagnosis are needed to stop the recurrent outbreak.

  4. Outbreak of small round structured virus gastroenteritis arose after kitchen assistant vomited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, W; Haswell, P; Fryers, P T; Green, J

    1997-06-27

    A wedding reception at a North Yorkshire hotel was followed by an explosive outbreak of gastroenteritis. The attack rate among the 111 guests was 50% and vomiting was a predominant feature. The results of laboratory and epidemiological investigations were consistent with a common source outbreak of small round structured virus (SRSV) infection genotype II. The source of the outbreak was traced to a kitchen assistant who suddenly became ill on the eve of the reception and vomited into a sink used for preparing vegetables. The sink was cleaned with a chlorine based disinfectant and used the next morning to prepare a potato salad, subsequently identified as the vehicle of infection in a cohort study of guests (odds ratio 3.21; CI 1.78-5.78, p = 0.0001). No other food was associated with illness. The outbreak provides further supporting evidence of the importance of vomiting in the transmission of SRSV infection, highlights the virulence of this group of viruses, and indicates their relative resistance to environmental disinfection and decontamination. It also highlights the need for the adequate training of catering staff and the implementation and enforcement of food hygiene regulations.

  5. Nanopore Sequencing as a Rapidly Deployable Ebola Outbreak Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Rosenke, Kyle; Fischer, Robert J; Hoenen, Andreas; Judson, Seth D; Martellaro, Cynthia; Falzarano, Darryl; Marzi, Andrea; Squires, R Burke; Wollenberg, Kurt R; de Wit, Emmie; Prescott, Joseph; Safronetz, David; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Bushmaker, Trenton; Feldmann, Friederike; McNally, Kristin; Bolay, Fatorma K; Fields, Barry; Sealy, Tara; Rayfield, Mark; Nichol, Stuart T; Zoon, Kathryn C; Massaquoi, Moses; Munster, Vincent J; Feldmann, Heinz

    2016-02-01

    Rapid sequencing of RNA/DNA from pathogen samples obtained during disease outbreaks provides critical scientific and public health information. However, challenges exist for exporting samples to laboratories or establishing conventional sequencers in remote outbreak regions. We successfully used a novel, pocket-sized nanopore sequencer at a field diagnostic laboratory in Liberia during the current Ebola virus outbreak.

  6. Cholera outbreak in districts around Lake Chilwa, Malawi: Lessons ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is endemic in Malawi with seasonal outbreaks during the wet season. People living around Lake Chilwa rely on the lake for their water supply. From May 2009 to May 2010, a cholera outbreak occurred in fishing communities around Lake Chilwa. This paper describes the outbreak response and lessons learned for ...

  7. Grasshopper species composition shifts following a severe rangeland grasshopper outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little is known about how grasshopper species abundances shift during and following severe outbreaks, as sampling efforts usually end when outbreaks subside. Grasshopper densities, species composition and vegetation have infrequently been sampled during and after a severe outbreak in the western U.S...

  8. Management of Nosocomial Scabies, an Outbreak of Occupational Disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jungbauer, Frank H. W.; Veenstra-Kyuchukova, Yanka K.; Koeze, Jacqueline; KruijtSpanjer, Martijn R.; Kardaun, Sylvia H.

    Background The optimal approach to managing institutional scabies outbreaks has yet to be defined. We report on outbreak managements are needed. Methods We report on a large outbreak of scabies in three acute care wards in a tertiary university teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Results The

  9. Fish and Shellfish Associated Disease Outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, M.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of disease outbreaks related to fish and shellfish, covering publications of 1976-77. This review covers the chemical, bacterial, and viral diseases that are transmitted by fish and shellfish. A list of 50 references is also presented. (HM)

  10. Canine distemper outbreak in rhesus monkeys, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhang, Shoufeng; Fan, Quanshui; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Fuqiang; Wang, Wei; Liao, Guoyang; Hu, Rongliang

    2011-08-01

    Since 2006, canine distemper outbreaks have occurred in rhesus monkeys at a breeding farm in Guangxi, People's Republic of China. Approximately 10,000 animals were infected (25%-60% disease incidence); 5%-30% of infected animals died. The epidemic was controlled by vaccination. Amino acid sequence analysis of the virus indicated a unique strain.

  11. E. Coli: Preventing Outbreaks at Camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Mary D.

    1996-01-01

    One strain of E. coli is not usually found in foods, but has been related to consumption of undercooked ground beef. Symptoms are stomach cramps and diarrhea, and 2-7% of infections lead to hemolytic uremic syndrome, which is life threatening. Camps can prevent outbreaks by avoiding uncooked meat on overnight campouts and requiring appropriate…

  12. Pneumonia outbreaks in calves and finishers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-19

    Pneumonia in calves and finishers. Ovarian tumour in a calf . Abortion associated with bovine herpesvirus 1 in a suckler herd. Parasitic gastroenteritis causing illthrift and death in sheep. Outbreaks of acute fasciolosis in sheep. These are among matters discussed in the disease surveillance report for December 2015 from SAC Consulting: Veterinary Services (SAC C VS). British Veterinary Association.

  13. [First ciguatera outbreak in Germany in 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedemann, Miriam

    2016-12-01

    In November 2012, 23 cases of ciguatera with typical combinations of gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms occurred in Germany after consumption of imported tropical fish (Lutjanus spp.). A questionnaire was used to gather information on the disease course and fish consumption. All patients suffered from pathognomonic cold allodynia. Aside from two severe courses of illness, all other cases showed symptoms of moderate intensity. During a three-year follow-up, seven patients reported prolonged paresthesia for more than one year. Two of them reported further neuropathies over almost three years. This is the first time that long-term persistence of symptoms has been documented in detail. Outbreak cases were allocated to eight clusters in seven German cities. A further cluster was prevented by the successful recall of ciguatoxic fish. Three clusters were confirmed by the detection of ciguatoxin in samples of suspicious and recalled fish. An extrapolation on the basis of ciguatoxic samples revealed twenty prevented cases of ciguatera. Further officially unknown cases should be assumed. During the outbreak investigations, inadvertently falsely labelled fish species and fishing capture areas on import and retail level documents were observed. The ascertainment of cases and the outbreak investigations proved to be difficult due to inconsistent case reports to poisons centers, local health and veterinary authorities. In Germany, many physicians are unaware of the disease pattern of ciguatera and the risks caused by tropical fish. The occurrence of further outbreaks during the following years emphasizes the increasing significance of ciguatera in Germany.

  14. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  15. Nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Pernille; Lundgren, Jens Dilling; Kjaeldgaard, P

    1991-01-01

    admitted as inpatients during the transmission period of the outbreak (20 June-14 August), of whom 18 (17 with AIDS, one with AIDS related complex), developed cryptosporidiosis. Two further HIV negative subjects (one departmental secretary, one visiting relative) developed cryptosporidiosis. MAIN OUTCOME...

  16. October 2012 Multistate Fungal Meningitis Outbreak

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-10-17

    This podcast gives an overview of the October 2012 multistate fungal meningitis outbreak, including symptoms to watch for and a website for up-to-date information.  Created: 10/17/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 10/17/2012.

  17. Preparing for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittbenner, Richard

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses the things college leaders should know and do in case of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The author talks about four principles that will guide college leaders in developing a pandemic influenza plan and presents the 10 elements of an effective college pandemic planning process.

  18. Canine Distemper Outbreak in Rhesus Monkeys, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhang, Shoufeng; Fan, Quanshui; Liu, Hua; Zhang, Fuqiang; Wang, Wei; Liao, Guoyang

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006, canine distemper outbreaks have occurred in rhesus monkeys at a breeding farm in Guangxi, People’s Republic of China. Approximately 10,000 animals were infected (25%–60% disease incidence); 5%–30% of infected animals died. The epidemic was controlled by vaccination. Amino acid sequence analysis of the virus indicated a unique strain. PMID:21801646

  19. Quantifying reporting timeliness to improve outbreak control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonačić Marinović, Axel; Swaan, Corien; van Steenbergen, Jim; Kretzschmar, MEE

    The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak control is unclear. We developed a model to quantitatively assess reporting timeliness. Using reporting speed data for 6 infectious diseases in the notification system in the Netherlands, we calculated

  20. Outbreak of Mysterious Illness Among Hospital Staff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Peter; Ebbehøj, Niels Erik

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hospitals are rarely reported as settings for mass psychogenic illness (MPI). The present report scrutinizes an outbreak of probable MPI among hospital staff, with medical intervention reinforcing the course of the illness. CASE REPORT: Four of seven staff members in an emergency...

  1. Lessons in Outbreak a Consumer perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.

    2008-01-01

    Lessons in Outbreak a Consumer perspective. Arnout Fischer Consumer risk perceptions is not necessarily the same as an economic weighing of risks and benefits. Consumers tend to be risk averse, tend to estimate catastrophic, unnatural or involuntary risks as larger, while personal lifestyle risks

  2. Silent circulation of St. Louis encephalitis virus prior to an encephalitis outbreak in Cordoba, Argentina (2005.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Adrian Díaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available St. Louis encephalitis virus is a complex zoonoses. In 2005, 47 laboratory-confirmed and probable clinical cases of SLEV infection were reported in Córdoba, Argentina. Although the causes of 2005 outbreak remain unknown, they might be related not only to virological factors, but also to ecological and environmental conditions. We hypothesized that one of the factors for SLE reemergence in Córdoba, Argentina, was the introduction of a new SLEV genotype (SLEV genotype III, with no previous activity in the area. In order to evaluate this hypothesis we carried out a molecular characterization of SLEV detections from mosquitoes collected between 2001 and 2004 in Córdoba city. A total of 315 mosquito pools (11,002 individuals including 12 mosquitoes species were analyzed. Overall, 20 pools (8 mosquitoes species were positive for SLEV. During this study, genotypes II, V and VII were detected. No mosquito pool infected with genotype III was detected before the 2005 outbreak. Genotype V was found every year and in the 8 sampled sites. Genotypes II and VII showed limited temporal and spatial activities. We cannot dismiss the association of genotype II and V as etiological agents during the outbreak. However, the silent circulation of other SLEV strains in Córdoba city before the 2005 outbreak suggests that the introduction of genotype III was an important factor associated to this event. Not mutually exclusive, other factors such as changes in avian hosts and mosquitoes vectors communities, driven by climatic and environmental modifications, should also be taken into consideration in further studies.

  3. Measles outbreak linked to European B3 outbreaks, Wales, United Kingdom, 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Jonny; Davies, Llion; McCarthy, Joanne; Perry, Malorie; Moore, Catherine; Cottrell, Simon; Bowley, Mererid; Williams, Chris; Shankar, Ananda Giri; Stiff, Rhianwen

    2017-10-01

    The United Kingdom achieved interrupted endemic measles transmission for 36 months in 2016. Despite this, ongoing challenges from sporadic measles cases typically imported from abroad remain. We summarise a B3 measles genotype outbreak in south-east Wales occurring between May and September 2017, linked with other European outbreaks, and lessons learnt. Seventeen confirmed cases and one probable case occurred principally in education and healthcare-settings. Six confirmed cases attended healthcare settings when infectious, without being isolated.

  4. Management of Animal Botulism Outbreaks: From Clinical Suspicion to Practical Countermeasures to Prevent or Minimize Outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anniballi, Fabrizio; Fiore, Alfonsina; Löfström, Charlotta

    2013-01-01

    and economic concern because of its high mortality rate. Moreover, meat or other products from affected animals entering the food chain may result in a public health problem. To this end, early diagnosis is crucial to define and apply appropriate veterinary public health measures. Clinical diagnosis is based...... outbreaks. In this article we outline all phases of management of animal botulism outbreaks occurring in wet wild birds, poultry, cattle, horses, and fur farm animals....

  5. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  6. The effect of line damping, magneto-optics and parasitic light on the derivation of sunspot vector magnetic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skumanich, A.; Lites, B. W.

    1985-01-01

    The least square fitting of Stokes observations of sunspots using a Milne-Eddington-Unno model appears to lead, in many circumstances, to various inconsistencies such as anomalously large doppler widths and, hence, small magnetic fields which are significantly below those inferred solely from the Zeeman splitting in the intensity profile. It is found that the introduction of additional physics into the model such as the inclusion of damping wings and magneto-optic birefrigence significantly improves the fit to Stokes parameters. Model fits excluding the intensity profile, i.e., of both magnitude as well as spectral shape of the polarization parameters alone, suggest that parasitic light in the intensity profile may also be a source of inconsistencies. The consequences of the physical changes on the vector properties of the field derived from the Fe I lambda 6173 line for the 17 November 1975 spot as well as on the thermodynamic state are discussed. A Doppler width delta lambda (D) - 25mA is bound to be consistent with a low spot temperature and microturbulence, and a damping constant of a = 0.2.

  7. The Harm that Underestimation of Uncertainty Does to Our Community: A Case Study Using Sunspot Area Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

    2017-08-01

    Data products in heliospheric physics are very often provided without clear estimates of uncertainty. From helioseismology in the solar interior, all the way to in situ solar wind measurements beyond 1AU, uncertainty estimates are typically hard for users to find (buried inside long documents that are separate from the data products), or simply non-existent.There are two main reasons why uncertainty measurements are hard to find:1. Understanding instrumental systematic errors is given a much higher priority inside instrumental teams.2. The desire to perfectly understand all sources of uncertainty postpones indefinitely the actual quantification of uncertainty in our measurements.Using the cross calibration of 200 years of sunspot area measurements as a case study, in this presentation we will discuss the negative impact that inadequate measurements of uncertainty have on users, through the appearance of toxic and unnecessary controversies, and data providers, through the creation of unrealistic expectations regarding the information that can be extracted from their data. We will discuss how empirical estimates of uncertainty represent a very good alternative to not providing any estimates at all, and finalize by discussing the bare essentials that should become our standard practice for future instruments and surveys.

  8. outbreak of hepatitis 'E' in risalpur garrison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, T.B.; Tariq, W.U.Z.

    2007-01-01

    Hepatitis E virus is an RNA virus. It results in epidemics/outbreaks in geographical areas lacking clean water and sanitation. It is excreted in stools and is enterically transmitted (faeco-oral route). The clinical picture resembles other acute hepatitis and diagnosis is clinched by detecting anti-HEV IgM in infected individuals. It is a self-limiting disease and does not progress to chronicity. There is no vaccine available so far, to confer immunity against HEV infection. HEV is endemic in many parts of the world and has resulted in many epidemics / outbreaks worldwide. It is also endemic in Pakistan and epidemics / outbreaks have generally been under reported. To establish the cause of outbreak Blood samples of the patients (n=195), admitted in isolation ward were collected aseptically for routine baseline investigations and hepatitis screening. Separate blood samples were sent to Armed Forces Institute of pathology (AFIP), Rawalpindi for detection of antibodies to hepatitis E virus (Anti HEV IgM). Water samples collected during the outbreak were tested by multiple tube technique. MPN (Most Probable Number) method was used to determine faecal coliform bacteria per 100 ml of water sample. All the patients (n=195) on admission had raised ALT (Alanine Aminotransferase) levels along with hyperbilirubinemia, 37% had raised TLC with polymorphonuclear response. None had HBsAg (Hepatitis B surface antign) or anti-HCV (antibodies to hepatitis C virus), 23% had prolonged PT (Prothrombin Time). Samples despatched to AFIP Rawalpindi confirmed the presence of anti-HEV IgM. Follow up analysis revealed many fold increase in ALT levels. Average stay in the Hospital was 23.6 days per patient. All the water samples were declared unfit for drinking due to high coliform count. At present, no vaccine is available to protect against HEV infection. Mainstay for prevention and occurrence is to formulate cost-effective strategies for improvement of self/environmental hygiene and

  9. Human angiostrongyliasis outbreak in Dali, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Lv

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007-31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF. Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education

  10. Cholera Outbreaks in Urban Bangladesh In 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Farhana; Hossain, M Jahangir; Kundu, Subodh Kumar; Naser, Abu Mohd; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P

    In 2011, a multidisciplinary team investigated two diarrhoea outbreaks affecting urban Bangladeshi communities from the districts of Bogra and Kishorganj to identify etiology, pathways of transmission, and factors contributing to these outbreaks. We defined case-patients with severe diarrhoea as residents from affected communities admitted with ≥3 loose stools per day. We listed case-patients, interviewed and examined them, and collected rectal swabs. We visited the affected communities to explore the water and sanitation infrastructure. We tested the microbial load of water samples from selected case household taps, tube wells, and pump stations. We conducted anthropological investigations to understand community perceptions regarding the outbreaks. We identified 21 case-patients from Bogra and 84 from Kishorganj. The median age in Bogra was 23 years, and 21 years in Kishorganj. There were no reported deaths. We isolated Vibrio in 29% (5/17) of rectal swabs from Bogra and in 40% (8/20) from Kishorganj. We found Vibrio in 1/8 tap water samples from Bogra and in both of the samples from Kishorganj. We did not find Vibrio in water samples from pumps or tube wells in either outbreak. Ground water extracted through deep tube wells was supplied intermittently through interconnected pipes without treatment in both areas. We found leakages in the water pipes in Bogra, and in Kishorganj water pipes passed through open sewers. The rapid onset of severe diarrhoea predominantly affecting adults and the isolation of cholera in rectal swabs confirmed that these outbreaks were caused by Vibrio cholerae . The detection of Vibrio in water samples organisms from taps but not from pumps or tube wells, suggested contamination within the pipes. Safe water provision is difficult in municipalities where supply is intermittent, and where pipes commonly leak. Research to develop and evaluate water purification strategies could identify appropriate approaches for ensuring safe drinking

  11. Human angiostrongyliasis outbreak in Dali, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Shan; Zhang, Yi; Chen, Shao-Rong; Wang, Li-Bo; Fang, Wen; Chen, Feng; Jiang, Jin-Yong; Li, Yuan-Lin; Du, Zun-Wei; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2009-09-22

    Several angiostrongyliasis outbreaks have been reported in recent years but the disease continues to be neglected in public health circles. We describe an outbreak in Dali, southwest China in order to highlight some key problems for the control of this helminth infection. All available medical records of suspected angiostrongyliasis patients visiting hospitals in Dali in the period 1 October 2007-31 March 2008 were reviewed, and tentative diagnoses of varying strengths were reached according to given sets of criteria. Snails collected from local markets, restaurants and natural habitats were also screened for the presence of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 33 patients met criteria for infection, and 11 among them were classified as clinically confirmed. An additional eight patients were identified through a surveillance system put in operation in response to the outbreak. The epidemic lasted for 8 months with its peak in February 2008. Of the 33 patients, 97.0% complained of severe headache. 84.8% patients had high eosinophil cell counts either in the peripheral blood or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Three-quarters of the patients were treated with a combination of albendazole and corticosteroids, resulting in significantly improved overall conditions. Twenty-two patients reported the consumption of raw or undercooked snails prior to the onset of the symptoms, and approximately 1.0% of the Pomacea canaliculata snails on sale were found to be infected with A. cantonensis. The snails were also found in certain habitats around Dali but no parasites were detected in these populations. The import and sale of infected P. canaliculata is the likely trigger for this angiostrongyliasis outbreak. Awareness of angiostrongyliasis must be raised, and standardized diagnosis and treatment are needed in order to provide clinicians with a guide to address this disease. Health education campaigns could limit the risk, and a hospital-based surveillance system should be

  12. Yellow Fever outbreak in Darfur, Sudan in October 2012; the initial outbreak investigation report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed A. Soghaier

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Introduction: Sudan is subject to repeated outbreaks, including Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF, which is considered to be a very serious illness. Yellow Fever (YF outbreaks in Sudan have been reported from the 1940s through 2005. In 2012, a new outbreak of YF occurred in the Darfur region. Objective: To identify the potential for an outbreak, to diagnose the disease and to be able to recognize its cause among the initial reported cases. Methodology: >This is a descriptive and investigative field study that applies standard communicable disease outbreak investigation steps. The study involved clinical, serological, entomological and environmental surveys. Results: The field investigation confirmed the outbreak and identified its cause to be YF. Conclusion: National surveillance systems should be strong enough to detect VHFs in a timely manner. Local health facilities should be prepared to promptly treat the initial cases because the case fatality ratios (CFRs are usually very high among the index cases. Keywords: Yellow Fever, Sudan, Darfur, VHFs, Soghaier

  13. Yellow Fever outbreak in Darfur, Sudan in October 2012; the initial outbreak investigation report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soghaier, Mohammed A; Hagar, Ahmed; Abbas, Mohammed A; Elmangory, Mutasim M; Eltahir, Khalid M; Sall, Amadou A

    2013-10-01

    Sudan is subject to repeated outbreaks, including Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF), which is considered to be a very serious illness. Yellow Fever (YF) outbreaks in Sudan have been reported from the 1940s through 2005. In 2012, a new outbreak of YF occurred in the Darfur region. To identify the potential for an outbreak, to diagnose the disease and to be able to recognize its cause among the initial reported cases. >This is a descriptive and investigative field study that applies standard communicable disease outbreak investigation steps. The study involved clinical, serological, entomological and environmental surveys. The field investigation confirmed the outbreak and identified its cause to be YF. National surveillance systems should be strong enough to detect VHFs in a timely manner. Local health facilities should be prepared to promptly treat the initial cases because the case fatality ratios (CFRs) are usually very high among the index cases. Copyright © 2013 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing the genome level diversity of Listeria monocytogenes from contaminated ice cream and environmental samples linked to a listeriosis outbreak in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Chen

    Full Text Available A listeriosis outbreak in the United States implicated contaminated ice cream produced by one company, which operated 3 facilities. We performed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP-based whole genome sequencing (WGS analysis on Listeria monocytogenes from food, environmental and clinical sources, identifying two clusters and a single branch, belonging to PCR serogroup IIb and genetic lineage I. WGS Cluster I, representing one outbreak strain, contained 82 food and environmental isolates from Facility I and 4 clinical isolates. These isolates differed by up to 29 SNPs, exhibited 9 pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE profiles and multilocus sequence typing (MLST sequence type (ST 5 of clonal complex 5 (CC5. WGS Cluster II contained 51 food and environmental isolates from Facility II, 4 food isolates from Facility I and 5 clinical isolates. Among them the isolates from Facility II and clinical isolates formed a clade and represented another outbreak strain. Isolates in this clade differed by up to 29 SNPs, exhibited 3 PFGE profiles and ST5. The only isolate collected from Facility III belonged to singleton ST489, which was in a single branch separate from Clusters I and II, and was not associated with the outbreak. WGS analyses clustered together outbreak-associated isolates exhibiting multiple PFGE profiles, while differentiating them from epidemiologically unrelated isolates that exhibited outbreak PFGE profiles. The complete genome of a Cluster I isolate allowed the identification and analyses of putative prophages, revealing that Cluster I isolates differed by the gain or loss of three putative prophages, causing the banding pattern differences among all 3 AscI-PFGE profiles observed in Cluster I isolates. WGS data suggested that certain ice cream varieties and/or production lines might have contamination sources unique to them. The SNP-based analysis was able to distinguish CC5 as a group from non-CC5 isolates and differentiate among CC5

  15. Assessing the genome level diversity of Listeria monocytogenes from contaminated ice cream and environmental samples linked to a listeriosis outbreak in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Luo, Yan; Curry, Phillip; Timme, Ruth; Melka, David; Doyle, Matthew; Parish, Mickey; Hammack, Thomas S; Allard, Marc W; Brown, Eric W; Strain, Errol A

    2017-01-01

    A listeriosis outbreak in the United States implicated contaminated ice cream produced by one company, which operated 3 facilities. We performed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis on Listeria monocytogenes from food, environmental and clinical sources, identifying two clusters and a single branch, belonging to PCR serogroup IIb and genetic lineage I. WGS Cluster I, representing one outbreak strain, contained 82 food and environmental isolates from Facility I and 4 clinical isolates. These isolates differed by up to 29 SNPs, exhibited 9 pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) sequence type (ST) 5 of clonal complex 5 (CC5). WGS Cluster II contained 51 food and environmental isolates from Facility II, 4 food isolates from Facility I and 5 clinical isolates. Among them the isolates from Facility II and clinical isolates formed a clade and represented another outbreak strain. Isolates in this clade differed by up to 29 SNPs, exhibited 3 PFGE profiles and ST5. The only isolate collected from Facility III belonged to singleton ST489, which was in a single branch separate from Clusters I and II, and was not associated with the outbreak. WGS analyses clustered together outbreak-associated isolates exhibiting multiple PFGE profiles, while differentiating them from epidemiologically unrelated isolates that exhibited outbreak PFGE profiles. The complete genome of a Cluster I isolate allowed the identification and analyses of putative prophages, revealing that Cluster I isolates differed by the gain or loss of three putative prophages, causing the banding pattern differences among all 3 AscI-PFGE profiles observed in Cluster I isolates. WGS data suggested that certain ice cream varieties and/or production lines might have contamination sources unique to them. The SNP-based analysis was able to distinguish CC5 as a group from non-CC5 isolates and differentiate among CC5 isolates from

  16. Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Isobel M; Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A; Aylward, R Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C

    2016-03-01

    As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities.

  17. A review of critical care nursing and disease outbreak preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makamure, Miranda; Makamure, Muriel; Mendiola, Williane; Renteria, Daisy; Repp, Melissa; Willden, Azshwee

    2013-01-01

    The impact of disease outbreaks continues to increase globally. As frontline staff, critical care nurses (CCNs) are more likely to be confronted with the need to care for affected patients. With different pathological diseases emerging, CCNs play an integral role in disease outbreaks. The advanced skill set of CCNs is pivotal in the management and care of patients during an outbreak. Lack of planning and preparation before disease outbreaks leads to detrimental patient outcomes. Panic, chaos, and fear for personal safety cause stress and anxiety for unprepared nurses. However, this problem can be resolved. Comprehensive planning, training, and education can better prepare intensive care unit nurses for disease outbreaks. This article reviews some of the current literature on intensive care unit nurse preparedness for disease outbreaks in the United States. This article also offers strategies that may be used to better prepare CCNs for disease outbreaks.

  18. GHOST: global hepatitis outbreak and surveillance technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longmire, Atkinson G; Sims, Seth; Rytsareva, Inna; Campo, David S; Skums, Pavel; Dimitrova, Zoya; Ramachandran, Sumathi; Medrzycki, Magdalena; Thai, Hong; Ganova-Raeva, Lilia; Lin, Yulin; Punkova, Lili T; Sue, Amanda; Mirabito, Massimo; Wang, Silver; Tracy, Robin; Bolet, Victor; Sukalac, Thom; Lynberg, Chris; Khudyakov, Yury

    2017-12-06

    Hepatitis C is a major public health problem in the United States and worldwide. Outbreaks of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections associated with unsafe injection practices, drug diversion, and other exposures to blood are difficult to detect and investigate. Effective HCV outbreak investigation requires comprehensive surveillance and robust case investigation. We previously developed and validated a methodology for the rapid and cost-effective identification of HCV transmission clusters. Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST) is a cloud-based system enabling users, regardless of computational expertise, to analyze and visualize transmission clusters in an independent, accurate and reproducible way. We present and explore performance of several GHOST implemented algorithms using next-generation sequencing data experimentally obtained from hypervariable region 1 of genetically related and unrelated HCV strains. GHOST processes data from an entire MiSeq run in approximately 3 h. A panel of seven specimens was used for preparation of six repeats of MiSeq libraries. Testing sequence data from these libraries by GHOST showed a consistent transmission linkage detection, testifying to high reproducibility of the system. Lack of linkage among genetically unrelated HCV strains and constant detection of genetic linkage between HCV strains from known transmission pairs and from follow-up specimens at different levels of MiSeq-read sampling indicate high specificity and sensitivity of GHOST in accurate detection of HCV transmission. GHOST enables automatic extraction of timely and relevant public health information suitable for guiding effective intervention measures. It is designed as a virtual diagnostic system intended for use in molecular surveillance and outbreak investigations rather than in research. The system produces accurate and reproducible information on HCV transmission clusters for all users, irrespective of their level of bioinformatics

  19. Nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Pernille; Lundgren, Jens Dilling; Kjaeldgaard, P

    1991-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To describe a nosocomial outbreak of cryptosporidiosis during four months after June 1989. SETTING--A department of infectious diseases in Copenhagen, seeing about half the patients with AIDS in Denmark. SUBJECTS--73 HIV antibody negative subjects and 60 antibody positive subjects...... admitted as inpatients during the transmission period of the outbreak (20 June-14 August), of whom 18 (17 with AIDS, one with AIDS related complex), developed cryptosporidiosis. Two further HIV negative subjects (one departmental secretary, one visiting relative) developed cryptosporidiosis. MAIN OUTCOME...... out ice for cold drinks. The mean incubation time was at least 13 days-that is, twice that in HIV-negative patients. Of the 18 patients with AIDS who developed cryptosporidiosis, five recovered, two were symptomless carriers, three died of unrelated causes, and eight died after prolonged diarrhoea...

  20. Severe Dengue Fever Outbreak in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sheng-Fan; Wang, Wen-Hung; Chang, Ko; Chen, Yen-Hsu; Tseng, Sung-Pin; Yen, Chia-Hung; Wu, Deng-Chyang; Chen, Yi-Ming Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a vector-borne disease caused by dengue viruses (DENVs). Epidemic dengue occurs intermittently in Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan experienced its largest DF outbreak. There were 15,732 DF cases reported. There were a total of 136 dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, of which 20 resulted in death. Most DF cases were reported in southern Taiwan. A total of 15,043 (96%) cases were from Kaohsiung, a modern city in southern Taiwan. This report reviews DF epidemics in Taiwan during 2005-2014. The correlation between DF and DHF along with temperature and precipitation were conjointly examined. We conclude that most dengue epidemics in Taiwan resulted from imported DF cases. Results indicate three main factors that may have been associated with this DF outbreak in Kaohsiung: an underground pipeline explosion combined with subsequent rainfall and higher temperature. These factors may have enhanced mosquito breeding activity, facilitating DENV transmission. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  1. A Short Overview of Ebola Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masumeh Saeidi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available   Ebola virus disease (formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever is a severe, often fatal illness, with a death rate of up to 90%. The illness affects humans and nonhuman primates (monkeys, gorillas, and chimpanzees. Ebola first appeared in 1976 in two simultaneous outbreaks, one in a village near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the other in a remote area of Sudan. The origin of the virus is unknown but fruit bats (Pteropodidae are considered the likely host of the Ebola virus, based on available evidence. In the current outbreak in West Africa, the majority of cases in humans have occurred as a result of human-to-human transmission. Infection occurs from direct contact through broken skin or mucous membranes with the blood, or other bodily fluids or secretions (stool, urine, saliva, semen of infected people.

  2. Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeno, Yoshiharu

    2010-11-01

    Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network and reveal the transmission parameters which govern the stochastic spreads over the network from a dataset on an infectious disease outbreak in the early growth phase. Populations in a combination of epidemiological compartment models and a meta-population network model are described by stochastic differential equations. Probability density functions are derived from the equations and used for the maximal likelihood estimation of the topology and parameters. The method is tested with computationally synthesized datasets and the WHO dataset on the SARS outbreak.

  3. Nosocomial outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa endophthalmitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, I; Valencia, R; Torres, M J; Cantos, A; Conde, M; Aznar, J

    2006-11-01

    We describe an outbreak of nosocomial endophthalmitis due to a common source, which was determined to be trypan blue solution prepared in the hospital's pharmacy service. We assume that viable bacteria probably gained access to the trypan blue stock solution during cooling after autoclaving. The temporal cluster of Pseudomonas aeruginosa endophthalmitis was readily perceived on the basis of clinical and microbiological findings, and an exogenous source of contamination was unequivocally identified by means of DNA fingerprinting.

  4. Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Rohani; Suzilah, Ismail; Wan Najdah, Wan Mohamad Ali; Topek, Omar; Mustafakamal, Ibrahim; Lee, Han Lim

    2018-01-01

    A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed to dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two large areas (Selayang and Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected in this study based on five consecutive years of high dengue cases. Entomological data were collected using ovitraps where the number of larvae was used to reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening to detect and serotype dengue virus in mosquitoes. Notified cases, date of disease onset, and number and type of the interventions were used as epidemiological endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution index (API) were indicators for environmental data. The field study was conducted during 81 weeks of data collection. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model were used to determine the relationship. The study showed that, notified cases were indirectly related with the environmental data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 weeks positive PCR; last 4 weeks rainfall; last 3 weeks maximum relative humidity; last 3 weeks minimum and maximum temperature; and last 4 weeks air pollution index (API), respectively. Notified cases were also related with next week intervention, while conventional intervention only happened 4 weeks after larvae were found, indicating ample time for dengue transmission. Based on a significant relationship among the three factors (epidemiological, entomological and environmental), estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for both locations produced high accuracy 84.9% for Selayang and 84.1% for Bandar Baru Bangi in predicting the actual notified cases. Hence, such model can be used in forestalling dengue outbreak and acts as an early warning system. The existence of relationships among the entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors can be used to build an early warning system for the prediction of dengue outbreak so

  5. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  6. Outbreak of Enterovirus - 71 Meningitis in Calicut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CK Sasidharan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Enterovirus 71(EV 71 causes wide spectrum of infections ranging from asymptomatic conditions to clinical syndromes like diarrhea, rash, hand-foot-and mouth disease (HFMD, herpangina, aseptic meningitis, encephalitis, myocarditis, acute flaccid paralysis, bulbar and brainstem encephalitis Guillain Barre syndrome, pulmonary haemorrhage. This study deals with an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in children caused by EV 71 virus. Methods: The authors report an outbreak of aseptic meningitis in children in and around Calicut in June 2008. Clinical and laboratory study was done in collaboration with National Centre for Disease Control, New Delhi. 149 children with aseptic meningitis were studied and followed up from June 2008 to May 2009. Result: All children had clinical features suggestive of aseptic meningitis and serology showed the rising antibody titre against EV 71 virus infection. CSF analysis also showed four fold rise in antibodies in one and ≥ 1:2 neutralising antibodies titer against EV- 71 in four samples indicating meningitis due to EV-71. Conclusion: EV 71 was identified as the causative agent of the outbreak of aseptic meningitis in the study and the fact that the EV 71 infection has evolved from minor illness like HFMD to major illness like aseptic meningitis from the same locality is truly alarming.

  7. Avalanche outbreaks emerging in cooperative contagions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Weiran; Chen, Li; Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh; Grassberger, Peter

    2015-11-01

    The spreading of contagions can exhibit a percolation transition, which separates transitory prevalence from outbreaks that reach a finite fraction of the population. Such transitions are commonly believed to be continuous, but empirical studies have shown more violent spreading modes when the participating agents are not limited to one type. Striking examples include the co-epidemic of the Spanish flu and pneumonia that occurred in 1918 (refs , ), and, more recently, the concurrent prevalence of HIV/AIDS and a host of diseases. It remains unclear to what extent an outbreak in the presence of interacting pathogens differs from that due to an ordinary single-agent process. Here we study a mechanistic model for understanding contagion processes involving inter-agent cooperation. Our stochastic simulations reveal the possible emergence of a massive avalanche-like outbreak right at the threshold, which is manifested as a discontinuous phase transition. Such an abrupt change arises only if the underlying network topology supports a bottleneck for cascaded mutual infections. Surprisingly, all these discontinuous transitions are accompanied by non-trivial critical behaviours, presenting a rare case of hybrid transition. The findings may imply the origin of catastrophic occurrences in many realistic systems, from co-epidemics to financial contagions.

  8. Sverdlovsk Anthrax Outbreak: An Educational Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, S. J.; van der Vink, G.

    2002-05-01

    In April and May of 1979 an Anthrax epidemic broke out in the city of Sverdlovsk (now Ekaterinburg) in the former Soviet Union. Sixty-four people were reported to have died from the outbreak, although there is still debate concerning the actual number of victims. While Soviet officials initially attributed this outbreak to contaminated meat, the US Government maintained that the outbreak was due to a leakage from a biological weapons facility. We have created and implemented an undergraduate educational exercise based on the forensic analysis of this event. Students were provided case data of the victims, area satellite images and meteorological data. One goal of the exercise was for students to reconstruct the most probable scenario of events through valid inference based on the limited information and uncertainties associated with the data set. Another goal was to make students sensitive to issues of biological weapons and bioterrorism. The exercise was highly rated by students even before the events of September 11. There is a clear need to educate students, particularly in the sciences, to be aware of the signatures of terrorist activities. Evidence of terrorist activities is more likely to appear from unintended discoveries than from active intelligence gathering. We believe our national security can be enhanced by sensitizing those that monitor the natural environment to the signatures of terrorist activities through the types of educational exercises that we have developed.

  9. A STATISTICAL STUDY OF FLARE PRODUCTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SUNSPOT PROPERTIES IN DIFFERENT MAGNETIC TYPES OF ACTIVE REGIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ya-Hui [Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Jhongli 32001, Taiwan (China); Hsieh, Min-Shiu [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 (United States); Yu, Hsiu-Shan [Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California San Diego, CA 92093 (United States); Chen, P. F., E-mail: yhyang@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw, E-mail: mhsieh2@alaska.edu, E-mail: hsyu@ucsd.edu, E-mail: chenpf@nju.edu.cn [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 (China)

    2017-01-10

    It is often believed that intense flares preferentially originate from the large-size active regions (ARs) with strong magnetic fields and complex magnetic configurations. This work investigates the dependence of flare activity on the AR properties and clarifies the influence of AR magnetic parameters on the flare productivity, based on two data sets of daily sunspot and flare information as well as the GOES soft X-ray measurements and HMI vector magnetograms. By considering the evolution of magnetic complexity, we find that flare behaviors are quite different in the short- and long-lived complex ARs and the ARs with more complex magnetic configurations are likely to host more impulsive and intense flares. Furthermore, we investigate several magnetic quantities and perform the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to examine the similarity/difference between two populations in different types of ARs. Our results demonstrate that the total source field strength on the photosphere has a good correlation with the flare activity in complex ARs. It is noted that intense flares tend to occur at the regions of strong source field in combination with an intermediate field-weighted shear angle. This result implies that the magnetic free energy provided by a complex AR could be high enough to trigger a flare eruption even with a moderate magnetic shear on the photosphere. We thus suggest that the magnetic free energy represented by the source field rather than the photospheric magnetic complexity is a better quantity to characterize the flare productivity of an AR, especially for the occurrence of intense flares.

  10. Biology and outbreaks of Microdiprion pallipes (Hymenoptera; Diprionidae) in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olofsson, E. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Entomology)

    1994-01-01

    During outbreaks, Microdiprion pallipes (Fall.) is the most destructive of the pine sawflies in Sweden. Its distribution includes most provinces, but damaging outbreaks have until recently occurred only in two inland areas in northern Sweden. These areas are characterised by high elevation, a harsh climate, and slow tree growth. The four recorded outbreak periods showed a 10 year periodicity. Outside these areas, a lesser outbreak occurred in 1988 to 1990, on the east coast (province of Uppland). Outbreak patterns, life history variation, and mortality factors were studied. Factors that may explain the distribution of outbreaks and the population patterns were identified.Experimental and observational evidence on the potential of various factors to influence fecundity, dispersal, and survival was evaluated. In the outbreak areas, there were few major population factors. Parasitism by Rhorus substitutor (Thunb.) was the largest cause of larval mortality and the only important density-dependent mortality factor. The different diapause strategies of M. pallipes and R. substitutor may contribute to stabilize this system. Different flight periods of the host and the parasitoid may explain a possible correlation between weather and outbreaks. Elsewhere in Sweden, where low population densities prevail, there may be similarities in population processes between M. pallipes and the other widely distributed diprionids with solitary larvae, which never have attained outbreak densities in Sweden. Interactions with other diprionids through shared natural enemies may be an important population process and may influence the distribution of outbreaks. 37 refs, 4 figs, 11 tabs

  11. Prevention, detection, and response to anthrax outbreak in Northern Tanzania using one health approach: A case study of Selela ward in Monduli district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elibariki R. Mwakapeje

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Anthrax is an infectious fatal zoonotic disease caused by Bacillus anthracis. Anthrax outbreak was confirmed in samples of wild animals following rumors of the outbreak in wild animals, livestock, and humans in Selela ward, Monduli district of Northern Tanzania. Therefore, a multi-sectorial team was deployed for outbreak response in the affected areas. Objectives: The aim of the response was to manage the outbreak in a One Health approach and specifically: (i To determine the magnitude of anthrax outbreak in humans, livestock, and wild animals in Selela ward, (ii to assess the outbreak local response capacity, (iii to establish mechanisms for safe disposal of animal carcasses in the affected areas, and (iv to mount effective control and preventive strategies using One Health approach in the affected areas. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional field survey using: (i Active searching of suspected human cases at health facilities and community level, (ii physical counting and disposal of wild animal carcasses in the affected area, (iii collection of specimens from suspected human cases and animal carcasses for laboratory analysis, and (iv meetings with local animal and human health staff, political, and traditional leaders at local levels. We analyzed data by STATA software, and a map was created using Quantum GIS software. Results: A total of 21 humans were suspected, and most of them (62% being from Selela ward. The outbreak caused deaths of 10 cattle, 26 goats, and three sheep, and 131 wild animal carcasses were discarded the majority of them being wildebeest (83%. Based on laboratory results, three blood smears tested positive for anthrax using Giemsa staining while two wildebeest samples tested positive and five human blood samples tested negative for anthrax using quantitative polymerase chain reaction techniques. Clinical forms of anthrax were also observed in humans and livestock which suggest that wild animals may

  12. A Methanol Intoxication Outbreak From Recreational Ingestion of Fracking Fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collister, David; Duff, Graham; Palatnick, Wesley; Komenda, Paul; Tangri, Navdeep; Hingwala, Jay

    2017-05-01

    Single-patient methanol intoxications are a common clinical presentation, but outbreaks are rare and usually occur in settings in which there is limited access to ethanol and methanol is consumed as a substitute. In this case report, we describe an outbreak of methanol intoxications that was challenging from a public health perspective and discuss strategies for managing such an outbreak. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. [Waterborne diseases outbreaks in the Czech Republic, 1995-2005].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozísek, F; Jeligová, H; Dvoráková, A

    2009-08-01

    Despite considerable advances in drinking water safety assurance and adherence to the public health standards, waterborne diaseases outbreaks have still been observed even in industrialized countries. The study objective was to map such outbreaks in the Czech Republic in 1995-2005. In this study, an outbreak is the occurrence of more cases of disease than normally expected within a specific place over a given period of time and a waterborne disease is a disease where water is the vehicle or source of infection. The data on waterborne outbreaks was obtained from the EPIDAT database (national infectious diseases reporting system) information provided by epidemiologists of all regional public health authorities and the National Reference Laboratory for Legionella. In 1995 - 2005, 33 outbreaks with water indicated as the route of transmission were recorded in the Czech Republic. The leading cause was unsafe drinking water (27 outbreaks), mainly from wells (19 outbreaks); nevertheless, the most serious consequences were observed in two outbreaks caused by microbiologically contaminated hot water. Other sources of waterborne infection were mineral water springs, a swimming pool and a brook. The total of reported cases of waterborne diseases was 1655, 356 hospitalisations and ten deaths due to legionellosis were recorded. The highest number of outbreaks (7) as well as the highest number of cases (841) were reported in 1997. Comparison of two five-year periods, i.e. 1996-2000 and 2001-2005, showed a nearly one third decrease in the total of outbreaks and a half reduction in the total of cases in the latter. In view of the limited length of monitoring, it is not possible to say with certainty whether it is a random distribution or an actual trend. Almost two thirds of cases were diagnosed as acute gastroenteritis of probable infectious origin and other frequent waterborne diseases were viral hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery. When analyzing the described outbreaks, it

  14. Typing of Salmonella enterica serovar Saintpaul: an outbreak investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baggesen, Dorte Lau; Wegener, Henrik Caspar; Christensen, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    factor, antibiogram typing, plasmid profiling, ribotyping and pulsed field gel electrophoresis, in order to identify the most probable source of infection. After typing, the source of the investigated outbreak remains obscure because so far no isolates with traits of the outbreak strain have been...... explanation for the failure to find isolates with traits of the outbreak strain could be the presence of a third, but so far unidentified, source. The present investigation illustrates the necessity of using more than one epidemiological typing method for outbreak investigation. This is especially important...

  15. Typhoid outbreak investigation in Dzivaresekwa, suburb of Harare ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Typhoid outbreak investigation in Dzivaresekwa, suburb of Harare City, Zimbabwe, 2011. Monica Muti, Notion Gombe, Mufuta Tshimanga, Lucia Takundwa, Donewell Bangure, Stanley Mungofa, Prosper Chonzi ...

  16. Two listeria outbreaks caused by smoked fish consumption-using whole-genome sequencing for outbreak investigations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillesberg Lassen, S.; Ethelberg, S.; Björkman, J. T.

    2016-01-01

    low-intensity, extended time-period outbreaks and link them to food products from two different contaminated production facilities with sufficient strength for food authorities to intervene on. Cold smoked and gravad fish constitute risk products and may be responsible for more listeriosis cases than......Listeria monocytogenes may contaminate and persist in food production facilities and cause repeated, seemingly sporadic, illnesses over extended periods of time. We report on the investigation of two such concurrent outbreaks. We compared patient isolates and available isolates from foods and food...... polymorphism differences. We performed routine food consumption interviews of L. monocytogenes patients and compared outbreak cases with sporadic cases. Two outbreaks were defined, each consisting of ten outbreak cases in the period 2013-15. Seven outbreak cases and a fetus in gestational week 38 died...

  17. Varicella outbreak in Sudanese refugees from Calais.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesens, O; Baud, O; Henquell, C; Lhermet Nurse, A; Beytout, J

    2016-05-01

    We describe an outbreak of varicella in 31 Sudanese refugees (all except one were male, mean age: 26 ± 1), from the Calais migrant camp and sheltered in a French transit area. The attack rate was 39%. Adults are scantly immunized against varicella zoster virus in East Africa and may be exposed to epidemics once in France. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. An outbreak of tinea gladiatorum in Lanzarote.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pique, E; Copado, R; Cabrera, A; Olivares, M; Fariña, M C; Escalonilla, P; Soriano, M L; Requena, L

    1999-01-01

    Canary Islands wrestling is a variant of the sport played exclusively in that region, and is associated with close participant contact. An outbreak of a fungal infection, so-called tinea gladiatorum, amongst such wrestlers in Lanzarote, one island in the archipelago is now described. 102 wrestlers from the eight teams on the island were examined; some of the clubs are 50 km apart; 45 wrestlers (44.1% of those examined) were noted to be affected. To our knowledge, this is the largest reported series of patients with tinea gladiatorum and the only one to demonstrate such infection in a variety of geographical locations.

  19. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  20. Phenotypic and genotypic characters of isolates of Pasteurella multocida obtained from back-yard poultry and from two outbreaks of avian cholera in avifauna in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, J.P.; Dietz, Hans-Henrik; Bisgaard, M.

    1998-01-01

    Two outbreaks of fowl cholera in the avifauna in Denmark, affecting primarily elders but also cormorants, gulls and oyster-catchers were shown to be caused by the same clone of Pasteurella multocida ssp, multocida by restriction enzyme analysis (REA) and ribotyping, using the enzymes HpaII and Hha...

  1. Outbreak of viral gastroenteritis due to drinking water contaminated by Norwalk-like viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukkula, M; Maunula, L; Silvennoinen, E; von Bonsdorff, C H

    1999-12-01

    Heinävesi, a Finnish municipality with a population of 4860 inhabitants, had an outbreak of gastroenteritis in March 1998. On the basis of an epidemiologic survey, an estimated 1700-3000 cases of acute gastroenteritis occurred during the outbreak. Municipal water consumption was found to be associated with illness (risk ratio [RR]=3.5, 95% confidence interval, 3.11>RR>3.96). Norwalk-like virus (NLV) genogroup II (GGII) was identified in untreated water, treated water, and 4 tap water samples by use of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. This was the first time NLVs had been detected in municipal tap water. Fifteen of 27 patient stool samples had NLV GGII, with an identical amplification product to that found in the water samples, indicating that the outbreak was caused by this virus. In some patients, NLV genogroup I was also encountered. This virus, however, could not be detected in the water samples. Inadequate chlorination contributed to the survival of the virus in the water.

  2. A large common-source outbreak of norovirus gastroenteritis in a hotel in Singapore, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, P; Tay, J; Ang, L W; Tien, W S; Thu, M; Lee, P; Pang, Q Y; Tang, Y L; Lee, K Y; Maurer-Stroh, S; Gunalan, V; Cutter, J; Goh, K T

    2017-02-01

    An outbreak of gastroenteritis affected 453 attendees (attack rate 28·5%) of six separate events held at a hotel in Singapore. Active case detection, case-control studies, hygiene inspections and microbial analysis of food, environmental and stool samples were conducted to determine the aetiology of the outbreak and the modes of transmission. The only commonality was the food, crockery and cutlery provided and/or handled by the hotel's Chinese banquet kitchen. Stool specimens from 34 cases and 15 food handlers were positive for norovirus genogroup II. The putative index case was one of eight norovirus-positive food handlers who had worked while they were symptomatic. Several food samples and remnants tested positive for Escherichia coli or high faecal coliforms, aerobic plate counts and/or total coliforms, indicating poor food hygiene. This large common-source outbreak of norovirus gastroenteritis was caused by the consumption of contaminated food and/or contact with contaminated crockery or cutlery provided or handled by the hotel's Chinese banquet kitchen.

  3. [Can solar/geomagnetic activity restrict the occurrence of some shellfish poisoning outbreaks? The example of PSP caused by Gymnodinium catenatum at the Atlantic Portuguese coast].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, P

    2013-01-01

    Cyclic outbreaks of accumulation of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins in mussels attributed to Gymnodinium catenatum blooms displayed several of the highest inter-annual maxima coincidental with minima of the 11-year solar sunspot number (SSN) cycle. The monthly distribution of PSP was associated with low levels of the solar radio flux, a more quantitative approach than SSN for fluctuations in solar activity. A comparison between monthly distribution of PSP and other common biotoxins (okadaic acid (OA), dinophysistoxin-2 (DTX2) and amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP) toxins) demonstrated that only PSP was significantly associated with low levels of radio flux (p < 0.01). PSP occurrence suggests a prior decline in solar activity could be required to act as a trigger, in a similar manner to a photoperiodic signal. The seasonal frequency increased towards autumn during the study period, which might be related to the progressive atmospheric cut-off of deleterious radiation associated with the seasonal change in solar declination, and might play an additional role in seasonal signal-triggering. PSP distribution was also associated with low levels of the geomagnetic index Aa. A comparison between monthly distribution of PSP and other common biotoxins, also demonstrated that only PSP was significantly associated with low levels of the Aa index (p < 0.01). In some years of SSN minima no significant PSP-outbreaks in mussels were detected. This was attributed to a steady rise in geomagnetic activity that could disrupt the triggering signal. Global distribution patterns show that hotspots for G. catenatum blooms are regions with deficient crustal magnetic anomalies. In addition to the variable magnetic field mostly of solar origin, static fields related to magnetized rocks in the crust and upper mantle might play a role in restricting worldwide geographic distribution.

  4. Copper (II)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CLEMENT O BEWAJI

    Valine (2 - amino - 3 – methylbutanoic acid), is a chemical compound containing .... Stability constant (Kf). Gibb's free energy. ) (. 1. −. ∆. Mol. JG. [CuL2(H2O)2] ... synthesis and characterization of Co(ii), Ni(ii), Cu (II), and Zn(ii) complexes with ...

  5. Pilot simulation study using meat inspection data for syndromic surveillance: use of whole carcass condemnation of adult cattle to assess the performance of several algorithms for outbreak detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupuy, C; Morignat, E; Dorea, F; Ducrot, C; Calavas, D; Gay, E

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the performance of several algorithms for outbreak detection based on weekly proportions of whole carcass condemnations. Data from one French slaughterhouse over the 2005-2009 period were used (177 098 slaughtered cattle, 0.97% of whole carcass condemnations). The method involved three steps: (i) preparation of an outbreak-free historical baseline over 5 years, (ii) simulation of over 100 years of baseline time series with injection of artificial outbreak signals with several shapes, durations and magnitudes, and (iii) assessment of the performance (sensitivity, specificity, outbreak detection precocity) of several algorithms to detect these artificial outbreak signals. The algorithms tested included the Shewart p chart, confidence interval of the negative binomial model, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA); and cumulative sum (CUSUM). The highest sensitivity was obtained using a negative binomial algorithm and the highest specificity with CUSUM or EWMA. EWMA sensitivity was too low to select this algorithm for efficient outbreak detection. CUSUM's performance was complementary to the negative binomial algorithm. The use of both algorithms on real data for a prospective investigation of the whole carcass condemnation rate as a syndromic surveillance indicator could be relevant. Shewart could also be a good option considering its high sensitivity and simplicity of implementation.

  6. Characteristics of pertussis outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain, 1997 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Inma; Broner, Sonia; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Ana; Godoy, Pere; Sala-Farré, Maria-Rosa; Company, Maria; Rius, Cristina; Domínguez, Angela; Group Of Catalonia, The Pertussis Working

    2015-01-01

    In Catalonia, pertussis outbreaks must be reported to the Department of Health. This study analyzed pertussis outbreaks between 1997 and 2010 in general and according to the characteristics of the index cases. The outbreak rate, hospitalization rate and incidence of associated cases and their 95%CI were calculated. Index cases were classified in two groups according to age (<15 years and ≥15 years) and the vaccine type received: whole cell vaccine (DTwP) or acellular vaccine (DTaP). During the study period, 230 outbreaks were reported. The outbreak rate was 2.43 × 10(-6) persons-year, and outbreaks ranged from 2 to 32 cases, with a median duration of 18 days. There were 771 associated cases, with an incidence rate of 0.8 × 10(-5) persons-year.   After classifying outbreaks according to the age of the index case, 126 outbreaks (1.3 × 10(-6) persons-year) had an index case aged <15 y and 87 (0.87 × 10(-6) person-year) had an index case aged ≥15 y (RR = 1.44, 95%CI 1.10-1.90; P = 0.007). Between 2003 and 2010, after the introduction of the acellular vaccine, the index case was vaccinated with DTwP vaccine in 25 outbreaks (0.43 × 10(-6) persons-year) and with DTaP vaccine in 32 outbreaks (0.55 × 10(-6) person-year) (RR = 0.78, 95%CI 0.46-1.31; P = 0.35). Of cases, 37.2% were correctly vaccinated, suggesting waning immunity of pertussis vaccine protection and endogenous circulation of pertussis. A greater number of outbreaks had an index case aged <15 y. No changes in the disease incidence, associated cases and hospitalization rate were observed after the introduction of DTaP.

  7. Mumps outbreak in Incheon, Korea, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Young Cho

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : Recently, we have noticed an increase in the number of patients with mumps in Incheon, Korea. The aim of this study is to estimate the regional trend in mumps incidence and to evaluate the factors related to the recent increase. Methods : We reviewed the medical records of 66 patients with mumps who had been admitted to Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital from July 1999 to June 2009. We compared the differences in records between “outbreak, 2009” and “nonoutbreak, 2000&#8211;2008.” Results : Of the 66 patients, 35 (53% were admitted in 2009, and 31 (47% were admitted between 2000 and 2008. Most of the patients admitted during the outbreak were over 15 years of age (80.0%, were born before 1993 (77.1%, and had received a single dose of mumps vaccine (62.9%. There were no significant differences in contact history, present address, clinical manifestations, and complications, except for orchitis, between the two groups. Conclusion : There was a sharp increase in the number of inpatients with mumps who were born before 1993 and who were over 15 years of age. We recommend that a booster vaccination be considered for adolescents and young adults born before 1993 who are susceptible to mumps infection due to their reduced opportunities for receiving two doses of mumps vaccine.

  8. Identification of resistance and virulence factors in an epidemic Enterobacter hormaechei outbreak strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.; Caspers, M.P.M.; Leverstein-van Hall, M.A.; Schuren, F.H.J.; Montijn, R.C.; Verhoef, J.; Fluit, A.C.

    2009-01-01

    Bacterial strains differ in their ability to cause hospital outbreaks. Using comparative genomic hybridization, Enterobacter cloacae complex isolates were studied to identify genetic markers specific for Enterobacter cloacae complex outbreak strains. No outbreak-specific genes were found that were

  9. Measles Cases during Ebola Outbreak, West Africa, 2013-2106.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colavita, Francesca; Biava, Mirella; Castilletti, Concetta; Quartu, Serena; Vairo, Francesco; Caglioti, Claudia; Agrati, Chiara; Lalle, Eleonora; Bordi, Licia; Lanini, Simone; Guanti, Michela Delli; Miccio, Rossella; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Capobianchi, Maria R; Di Caro, Antonino

    2017-06-01

    The recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa caused breakdowns in public health systems, which might have caused outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. We tested 80 patients admitted to an Ebola treatment center in Freetown, Sierra Leone, for measles. These patients were negative for Ebola virus. Measles virus IgM was detected in 13 (16%) of the patients.

  10. Large outbreaks of Salmonella Typhimurium infection in Denmark in 2008

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Wingstrand, Anne; Jensen, T.

    2008-01-01

    An outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium phage type U292 has been ongoing in Denmark since 1 April, with 1,054 cases registered until 23 October 2008. Extensive investigations including hypothesis-generating interviews, matched case-control studies, cohort studies in embedded outbreaks, shopping list...

  11. High case fatality cholera outbreak in Western Kenya, August 2010 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Cholera is a disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholera and has been an important public health problem since its first pandemic in 1817. Kenya has had numerous outbreaks of cholera ever since it was first detected there during 1971. In August 2010 an outbreak of cholera occurred in Kuria West District ...

  12. Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations in the U.S.

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-02-22

    In this podcast, Dr Kiren Mitruka, medical officer with CDC's Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations team, discusses tuberculosis outbreak investigations in the U.S. from 2002-2008.  Created: 2/22/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/22/2011.

  13. First chikungunya outbreak in Pakistan: a trail of viral attacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.H. Mallhi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite explicit warning from the National Institute of Health, Pakistan experienced its first chikungunya outbreak in the metropolis of Karachi. We underscore the attention of health authorities and healthcare professionals towards contributing factors associated with this outbreak and the measures required to combat this viral disease.

  14. Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Sequence Type 120, Peru, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Gavilan, Ronnie G; Toro, Magaly; Zamudio, Maria L; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

    2016-07-01

    In 2009, an outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus occurred in Piura, Cajamarca, Lambayeque, and Lima, Peru. Whole-genome sequencing of clinical and environmental samples from the outbreak revealed a new V. parahaemolyticus clone. All the isolates identified belonged to a single clonal complex described exclusively in Asia before its emergence in Peru.

  15. Outbreaks of gastroenteritis linked to lettuce, Denmark, January 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ethelberg, S.; Lisby, M.; Bottiger, B.

    2010-01-01

    At least 11 linked outbreaks of gastroenteritis with a total of 260 cases have occurred in Denmark in mid January 2010. Investigations showed that the outbreaks were caused by norovirus of several genotypes and by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli. Lettuce of the lollo bionda type grown in France...

  16. Teachers' Risk Perception and Needs in Addressing Infectious Disease Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Emmy M. Y.; Cheng, May M. H.; Lo, S.K.

    2010-01-01

    The outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus has led to numerous precautionary school closures in several countries. No research is available on the school teachers' perceptions as a health protective resource in controlling communicable disease outbreaks. The purposes of this study were to examine the risk perception, the perceived understanding…

  17. Case Series: Outbreak of Conversion Disorder among Amish Adolescent Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassady, Joslyn D.; Kirschke, David L.; Jones, Timothy F.; Craig, Allen S.; Bermudez, Ovidio B.; Schaffner, William

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Outbreak investigations are challenging in a cross-cultural context, and outbreaks of psychiatric disease are rare in any community. We investigated a cluster of unexplained debilitating illness among Amish girls. Method: We reviewed the medical records of cases, consulted with health care providers, performed active case finding,…

  18. High case fatality cholera outbreak in Western Kenya, August 2010

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    Abstract. Introduction: Cholera is a disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholera and has been an important public health problem since its first pandemic in 1817. Kenya has had numerous outbreaks of cholera ever since it was first detected there during 1971. In August 2010 an outbreak of cholera occurred in Kuria ...

  19. An outbreak of food poisoning among children attending an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives. To describe an outbreak of food. poisoning at a major international sports event in Johannesburg and to determine the likely cause and source of the outbreak. Design. A descriptive, case-control study. Setting. An international sports event in Johannesburg. Methods. A questionnaire survey of involved children ...

  20. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Hans-Christian; Butenschoen, Vicki Marie; Tran, Hien Tinh; Gozzer, Ernesto; Skewes, Ronald; Mahendradhata, Yodi; Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Farlow, Andrew

    2013-11-06

    Dengue disease surveillance and vector surveillance are presumed to detect dengue outbreaks at an early stage and to save--through early response activities--resources, and reduce the social and economic impact of outbreaks on individuals, health systems and economies. The aim of this study is to unveil evidence on the cost of dengue outbreaks. Economic evidence on dengue outbreaks was gathered by conducting a literature review and collecting information on the costs of recent dengue outbreaks in 4 countries: Peru, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The literature review distinguished between costs of dengue illness including cost of dengue outbreaks, cost of interventions and cost-effectiveness of interventions. Seventeen publications on cost of dengue showed a large range of costs from 0.2 Million US$ in Venezuela to 135.2 Million US$ in Brazil. However, these figures were not standardized to make them comparable. Furthermore, dengue outbreak costs are calculated differently across the publications, and cost of dengue illness is used interchangeably with cost of dengue outbreaks. Only one paper from Australia analysed the resources saved through active dengue surveillance. Costs of vector control interventions have been reported in 4 studies, indicating that the costs of such interventions are lower than those of actual outbreaks. Nine papers focussed on the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccines or dengue vector control; they do not provide any direct information on cost of dengue outbreaks, but their modelling methodologies could guide future research on cost-effectiveness of national surveillance systems.The country case studies--conducted in very different geographic and health system settings - unveiled rough estimates for 2011 outbreak costs of: 12 million US$ in Vietnam, 6.75 million US$ in Indonesia, 4.5 million US$ in Peru and 2.8 million US$ in Dominican Republic (all in 2012 US$). The proportions of the different cost components (vector control

  1. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue disease surveillance and vector surveillance are presumed to detect dengue outbreaks at an early stage and to save – through early response activities – resources, and reduce the social and economic impact of outbreaks on individuals, health systems and economies. The aim of this study is to unveil evidence on the cost of dengue outbreaks. Methods Economic evidence on dengue outbreaks was gathered by conducting a literature review and collecting information on the costs of recent dengue outbreaks in 4 countries: Peru, Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The literature review distinguished between costs of dengue illness including cost of dengue outbreaks, cost of interventions and cost-effectiveness of interventions. Results Seventeen publications on cost of dengue showed a large range of costs from 0.2 Million US$ in Venezuela to 135.2 Million US$ in Brazil. However, these figures were not standardized to make them comparable. Furthermore, dengue outbreak costs are calculated differently across the publications, and cost of dengue illness is used interchangeably with cost of dengue outbreaks. Only one paper from Australia analysed the resources saved through active dengue surveillance. Costs of vector control interventions have been reported in 4 studies, indicating that the costs of such interventions are lower than those of actual outbreaks. Nine papers focussed on the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccines or dengue vector control; they do not provide any direct information on cost of dengue outbreaks, but their modelling methodologies could guide future research on cost-effectiveness of national surveillance systems. The country case studies – conducted in very different geographic and health system settings - unveiled rough estimates for 2011 outbreak costs of: 12 million US$ in Vietnam, 6.75 million US$ in Indonesia, 4.5 million US$ in Peru and 2.8 million US$ in Dominican Republic (all in 2012 US$). The proportions of the

  2. [Outbreaks of viral hepatitis E in the Czech Republic?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trmal, Josef; Pavlík, Ivo; Vasícková, Petra; Matejícková, Ladislava; Simůnková, Lenka; Luks, Stanislav; Pazderková, Jana

    2012-05-01

    Until recently, viral hepatitis E (VHE) has typically been an imported infection, related to travel to developing countries. A number of travel-unrelated VHE cases currently diagnosed in the Czech Republic. Outcomes of the epidemiological investigations of two VHE outbreaks associated with the consumption of pork and pork products at pig-slaughtering feasts are presented. Thirteen cases have been reported in the first outbreak and eight cases in the second outbreak. The epidemiological investigations are described and the experience gained in analysing suspected biological specimens is presented. The source of infection has not been identified in the first outbreak while in the other one, a link between human cases and infection in farm pigs was revealed for the first time. Although the epidemiological investigation may not always lead to the detection of the VHE source, it must be conducted in any outbreak and can only be successful when done in cooperation of the public health authorities with the veterinary health agency.

  3. Molecular Investigation of Tularemia Outbreaks, Spain, 1997–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariza-Miguel, Jaime; Johansson, Anders; Fernández-Natal, María Isabel; Martínez-Nistal, Carmen; Orduña, Antonio; Rodríguez-Ferri, Elías F.; Hernández, Marta

    2014-01-01

    Tularemia outbreaks occurred in northwestern Spain in 1997–1998 and 2007–2008 and affected >1,000 persons. We assessed isolates involved in these outbreaks by using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis with 2 restriction enzymes and multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis of 16 genomic loci of Francisella tularensis, the cause of this disease. Isolates were divided into 3 pulsotypes by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and 8 allelic profiles by multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis. Isolates obtained from the second tularemia outbreak had the same genotypes as isolates obtained from the first outbreak. Both outbreaks were caused by genotypes of genetic subclade B.Br:FTNF002–00, which is widely distributed in countries in central and western Europe. Thus, reemergence of tularemia in Spain was not caused by the reintroduction of exotic strains, but probably by persistence of local reservoirs of infection. PMID:24750848

  4. Molecular Characterization of Two Major Dengue Outbreaks in Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Garita, Claudio; Somogyi, Teresita; Vicente-Santos, Amanda; Corrales-Aguilar, Eugenia

    2016-07-06

    Dengue virus (DENV) (Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is a reemerging arthropod-borne virus with a worldwide circulation, transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Since the first detection of its main transmitting vector in 1992 and the invasion of DENV-1 in 1993, Costa Rica has faced dengue outbreaks yearly. In 2007 and 2013, Costa Rica experienced two of the largest outbreaks in terms of total and severe cases. To provide genetic information about the etiologic agents producing these outbreaks, we conducted phylogenetic analysis of viruses isolated from human samples. A total of 23 DENV-1 and DENV-2 sequences were characterized. These analyses signaled that DENV-1 genotype V and DENV-2 American/Asian genotype were circulating in those outbreaks. Our results suggest that the 2007 and 2013 outbreak viral strains of DENV-1 and DENV-2 originated from nearby countries and underwent in situ microevolution. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  5. Solar Indices - Sunspot Numbers

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of indices related to solar activity contributed by a number of national and private solar observatories located worldwide. This...

  6. Skills, sunspots and cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busato, Francesco; Marchetti, Enrico

    This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector,multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths, andendogenous cycles, without relying on factors' hoarding. The modelpresents a novel theoretical economic mechanism that supportssunspot-driven expansions without requiring...

  7. Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Sarah M; Asti, Lindsey; Nyathi, Sindiso; Spiker, Marie L; Lee, Bruce Y

    Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances. We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases. We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly). The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

  8. The Methanol Poisoning Outbreaks in Libya 2013 and Kenya 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostrup, Morten; Edwards, Jeffrey K; Abukalish, Mohamed; Ezzabi, Masoud; Some, David; Ritter, Helga; Menge, Tom; Abdelrahman, Ahmed; Rootwelt, Rebecca; Janssens, Bart; Lind, Kyrre; Paasma, Raido; Hovda, Knut Erik

    2016-01-01

    Outbreaks of methanol poisoning occur frequently on a global basis, affecting poor and vulnerable populations. Knowledge regarding methanol is limited, likely many cases and even outbreaks go unnoticed, with patients dying unnecessarily. We describe findings from the first three large outbreaks of methanol poisoning where Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) responded, and evaluate the benefits of a possible future collaboration between local health authorities, a Non-Governmental Organisation and international expertise. Retrospective study of three major methanol outbreaks in Libya (2013) and Kenya (May and July 2014). Data were collected from MSF field personnel, local health personnel, hospital files, and media reports. In Tripoli, Libya, over 1,000 patients were poisoned with a reported case fatality rate of 10% (101/1,066). In Kenya, two outbreaks resulted in approximately 341 and 126 patients, with case fatality rates of 29% (100/341) and 21% (26/126), respectively. MSF launched an emergency team with international experts, medications and equipment, however, the outbreaks were resolving by the time of arrival. Recognition of an outbreak of methanol poisoning and diagnosis seem to be the most challenging tasks, with significant delay from time of first presentations to public health warnings being issued. In spite of the rapid response from an emergency team, the outbreaks were nearly concluded by the time of arrival. A major impact on the outcome was not seen, but large educational trainings were conducted to increase awareness and knowledge about methanol poisoning. Based on this training, MSF was able to send a local emergency team during the second outbreak, supporting that such an approach could improve outcomes. Basic training, simplified treatment protocols, point-of-care diagnostic tools, and early support when needed, are likely the most important components to impact the consequences of methanol poisoning outbreaks in these challenging contexts.

  9. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  10. An outbreak of Ebola in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okware, S I; Omaswa, F G; Zaramba, S; Opio, A; Lutwama, J J; Kamugisha, J; Rwaguma, E B; Kagwa, P; Lamunu, M

    2002-12-01

    An outbreak of Ebola disease was reported from Gulu district, Uganda, on 8 October 2000. The outbreak was characterized by fever and haemorrhagic manifestations, and affected health workers and the general population of Rwot-Obillo, a village 14 km north of Gulu town. Later, the outbreak spread to other parts of the country including Mbarara and Masindi districts. Response measures included surveillance, community mobilization, case and logistics management. Three coordination committees were formed: National Task Force (NTF), a District Task Force (DTF) and an Interministerial Task Force (IMTF). The NTF and DTF were responsible for coordination and follow-up of implementation of activities at the national and district levels, respectively, while the IMTF provided political direction and handled sensitive issues related to stigma, trade, tourism and international relations. The international response was coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO) under the umbrella organization of the Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network. A WHO/CDC case definition for Ebola was adapted and used to capture four categories of cases, namely, the 'alert', 'suspected', 'probable' and 'confirmed cases'. Guidelines for identification and management of cases were developed and disseminated to all persons responsible for surveillance, case management, contact tracing and Information Education Communication (IEC). For the duration of the epidemic that lasted up to 16 January 2001, a total of 425 cases with 224 deaths were reported countrywide. The case fatality rate was 53%. The attack rate (AR) was highest in women. The average AR for Gulu district was 12.6 cases/10 000 inhabitants when the contacts of all cases were considered and was 4.5 cases/10 000 if limited only to contacts of laboratory confirmed cases. The secondary AR was 2.5% when nearly 5000 contacts were followed up for 21 days. Uganda was finally declared Ebola free on 27 February 2001, 42 days after the last case

  11. Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak Associated With a Single Hotel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fill, Mary-Margaret A; Lloyd, Jennifer; Chakraverty, Tamal; Sweat, David; Manners, Judy; Garman, Katie; Hlavsa, Michele C; Roellig, Dawn M; Dunn, John R; Schaffner, William; Jones, Timothy F

    2017-05-01

    We investigated a gastrointestinal illness cluster among persons who attended a baseball tournament (>200 teams) during July 2015. We interviewed representatives of 19 teams; illness was reported among only the 9 (47%) teams that stayed at Hotel A (p Hotel A was significantly associated with illness (odds ratio: 7.3; 95% confidence interval: 3.6, 15.2). Eight out of nine (89%) stool specimens tested were positive for Cryptosporidium, with C. hominis IfA12G1 subtype identified in two specimens. The environmental health assessment detected a low free available chlorine level, and pool water tested positive for E. coli and total coliforms. A possible diarrheal contamination event, substantial hotel pool use, and use of cyanuric acid might have contributed to this outbreak and magnitude. Aquatic facilities practicing proper operation and maintenance (e.g., following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Model Aquatic Health Code) can protect the public’s health.

  12. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  13. BCG protects toddlers during a tuberculosis outbreak.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Gaensbauer, J T

    2009-05-01

    In 2007, an outbreak of tuberculosis occurred in a toddler population attending two child care centres in Cork, Ireland. Of 268 children exposed, 18 were eventually diagnosed with active tuberculosis. We present the initial clinical and radiographic characteristics of the active disease group. Mantoux testing was positive in only 66% of cases. All cases were either pulmonary or involved hilar adenopathy on chest radiograph; there were no cases of disseminated disease or meningitis. 24% of the exposed children had been previously vaccinated with BCG, and no case of active disease was found in this group (p = 0.016), suggesting a profound protective effect of BCG in this population. Our experience provides evidence supporting a protective effect of BCG against pulmonary disease in young children.

  14. User's Guide To CHEAP0 II-Economic Analysis of Stand Prognosis Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph E. Horn; E. Lee Medema; Ervin G. Schuster

    1986-01-01

    CHEAP0 II provides supplemental economic analysis capability for users of version 5.1 of the Stand Prognosis Model, including recent regeneration and insect outbreak extensions. Although patterned after the old CHEAP0 model, CHEAP0 II has more features and analytic capabilities, especially for analysis of existing and uneven-aged stands....

  15. (II) complexes

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    activities of Schiff base tin (II) complexes. Neelofar1 ... Conclusion: All synthesized Schiff bases and their Tin (II) complexes showed high antimicrobial and ...... Singh HL. Synthesis and characterization of tin (II) complexes of fluorinated Schiff bases derived from amino acids. Spectrochim Acta Part A: Molec Biomolec.

  16. Sunspot proper motions in active region NOAA 2372 and its flare activity during SMY period of 1980 April 4-13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambastha, A.; Bhatnagar, A.

    1988-01-01

    Solar Active Region NOAA 2372 was observed extensively by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite and several ground-based observatories during 1980 April 4-13 in the Solar Maximum Year. After its birth around April 4, it underwent a rapid growth and produced a reported 84 flares in the course of its disc passage. In this paper, photospheric and chromospheric observations of this active region have been studied together with Marshall Space Flight Center magnetograms and X-ray data from HXIS aboard the SMM satellite. In particular, the relationship of the flare-productivity with sunspot proper motions and emergence of new regions of magnetic flux in the active region from its birth to its disappearance at the W-limb has been discussed. (author). 7 figures, 2 tables, 29 refs

  17. Geometrical relationship of flare-generated solar wind structures to the magnetic axes of bipolar sunspot groups adjacent to their originating solar flares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, K.G.; Evdokimova, L.V.; Mikerina, N.V.

    1982-01-01

    Occurrences of interplanetary shock waves near the Earth after the powerful isolated flares of 1957-1978 are investigated. The close connection between the occurrences of shock waves and the positions of magnetic axes of bipolar groups of sunspots is suggested on the basis of a statistical study. The shock waves are principally observed when the Earth finds itself near the planes that are projected through the flares in parallel to the appropriate magnetic axes of the nearest bipolar groups. This regularity is interpreted as an indirect argument for a three-dimensional geometry for the interplanetary shock waves which, when projected on these flattened to corresponding planes, are traces of large circular arcs. The typical angular scales of isolated interplanetary shock waves are estimated as approx. equal to 150 0 and approx. equal to 30 0 parallel and perpendicular, respectively, to the magnetic axes correspondingly. (orig.)

  18. A Test of the Active-Day Fraction Method of Sunspot Group Number Calibration: Dependence on the Level of Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willamo, T.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.

    2018-04-01

    The method of active-day fraction (ADF) was proposed recently to calibrate different solar observers to standard observational conditions. The result of the calibration may depend on the overall level of solar activity during the observational period. This dependency is studied quantitatively using data of the Royal Greenwich Observatory by formally calibrating synthetic pseudo-observers to the full reference dataset. It is shown that the sunspot group number is precisely estimated by the ADF method for periods of moderate activity, may be slightly underestimated by 0.5 - 1.5 groups ({≤} 10%) for strong and very strong activity, and is strongly overestimated by up to 2.5 groups ({≤} 30%) for weak-to-moderate activity. The ADF method becomes inapplicable for the periods of grand minima of activity. In general, the ADF method tends to overestimate the overall level of activity and to reduce the long-term trends.

  19. Surveillance for foodborne disease outbreaks - United States, 1998-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, L Hannah; Walsh, Kelly A; Vieira, Antonio R; Herman, Karen; Williams, Ian T; Hall, Aron J; Cole, Dana

    2013-06-28

    Foodborne diseases cause an estimated 48 million illnesses each year in the United States, including 9.4 million caused by known pathogens. Foodborne disease outbreak surveillance provides valuable insights into the agents and foods that cause illness and the settings in which transmission occurs. CDC maintains a surveillance program for collection and periodic reporting of data on the occurrence and causes of foodborne disease outbreaks in the United States. This surveillance system is the primary source of national data describing the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths; etiologic agents; implicated foods; contributing factors; and settings of food preparation and consumption associated with recognized foodborne disease outbreaks in the United States. 1998-2008. The Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System collects data on foodborne disease outbreaks, defined as the occurrence of two or more cases of a similar illness resulting from the ingestion of a common food. Public health agencies in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, U.S. territories, and Freely Associated States have primary responsibility for identifying and investigating outbreaks and use a standard form to report outbreaks voluntarily to CDC. During 1998-2008, reporting was made through the electronic Foodborne Outbreak Reporting System (eFORS). During 1998-2008, CDC received reports of 13,405 foodborne disease outbreaks, which resulted in 273,120 reported cases of illness, 9,109 hospitalizations, and 200 deaths. Of the 7,998 outbreaks with a known etiology, 3,633 (45%) were caused by viruses, 3,613 (45%) were caused by bacteria, 685 (5%) were caused by chemical and toxic agents, and 67 (1%) were caused by parasites. Among the 7,724 (58%) outbreaks with an implicated food or contaminated ingredient reported, 3,264 (42%) could be assigned to one of 17 predefined commodity categories: fish, crustaceans, mollusks, dairy, eggs, beef, game, pork, poultry, grains/beans, oils

  20. Pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of spruce beetle outbreaks on fuels in subalpine forests of Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Kulakowski, Dominik; Veblen, Thomas T

    2018-03-01

    Over the past 30 years, forest disturbances have increased in size, intensity, and frequency globally, and are predicted to continue increasing due to climate change, potentially relaxing the constraints of vegetation properties on disturbance regimes. However, the consequences of the potentially declining importance of vegetation in determining future disturbance regimes are not well understood. Historically, bark beetles preferentially attack older trees and stands in later stages of development. However, as climate warming intensifies outbreaks by promoting growth of beetle populations and compromising tree defenses, smaller diameter trees and stands in early stages of development now are being affected by outbreaks. To date, no study has considered how stand age and other pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of outbreaks on surface and aerial fuel arrangements. We collected fuels data across a chronosequence of post-outbreak sites affected by spruce beetle (SB) between the 1940s and the 2010s, stratified by young (130 yr) post-fire stands. Canopy and surface fuel loads were calculated for each tree and stand, and available crown fuel load, crown bulk density, and canopy bulk densities were estimated. Canopy bulk density and density of live canopy individuals were reduced in all stands affected by SB, though foliage loss was proportionally greater in old stands as compared to young stands. Fine surface fuel loads in young stands were three times greater shortly (fuels decreased to below endemic (i.e., non-outbreak) levels. In both young and old stands, the net effect of SB outbreaks during the 20th and 21st centuries reduced total canopy fuels and increased stand-scale spatial heterogeneity of canopy fuels following outbreak. Importantly, the decrease in canopy fuels following outbreaks was greater in young post-fire stands than in older stands, suggesting that SB outbreaks may more substantially reduce risk of active crown fire when they affect

  1. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

    2017-01-01

    Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

  2. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetan Texier

    Full Text Available Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler. We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1 resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak

  3. Hepatitis A outbreaks in the vaccination era in Catalonia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Ana; Broner, Sonia; Torner, Nuria; Godoy, Pere; Batalla, Joan; Alvarez, Josep; Barrabeig, Irene; Camps, Neus; Carmona, Gloria; Minguell, Sofía; Sala, Rosa; Caylà, Joan; Domínguez, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Hepatitis A outbreaks have a major impact on public health services and involve case investigation and intervention measures to susceptible contacts. At the end of 1998 a universal vaccination program with a combined hepatitis A+B vaccine was started in Catalonia (Spain) in 12-years-old preadolescents. The objective of this study was to compare the characteristics of hepatitis A outbreaks in the periods before and after the introduction of the preadolescent vaccination program and to estimate the preventable fraction of cases associated to outbreaks. The incidence rates of outbreaks, cases and hospitalization associated with each outbreak were calculated. Two periods were considered: before (1991-1998) and after (2000-2007) the introduction of mass vaccination. The preventable fraction and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cases associated with outbreaks was calculated. The rate of associated cases with outbreaks was higher in the period before the vaccination program than in the post vaccination period (1.53 per 100,000 person-year vs 1.12 ; pcases associated to outbreaks was 19.6%(95%CI 6.7-32.5) in the 0-4 years group and 16.7% (95% CI 6.0-27.5) in the 5-14 years group, but the highest figure (38.6%; 95%CI 21.3-55.9) was observed in the 15-24 years age group. The estimated proportion of cases associated with outbreaks that would theoretically have been prevented with the vaccination program suggests that substantial benefits have been obtained in Catalonia in people aged less than 25 years.

  4. [Norovirus outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes in Catalonia, Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy, Pere; Domínguez, Angela; Alvarez, Josep; Camps, Neus; Barrabeig, Irene; Bartolomé, Rosa; Sala, María Rosa; Ferre, Dolors; Pañella, Helena; Torres, Joan; Minguell, Sofía; Alsedà, Miquel; Pumares, Analía

    2009-01-01

    The low infectious dose and multiple transmission routes favour the appearance of norovirus outbreaks. The objective of this study was to compare the incidence of norovirus outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes in Catalonia. A descriptive study of norovirus outbreaks between 15/10/2004 and 30/10/2005 was carried out. An epidemiological survey was completed for each outbreak. Norovirus in clinical samples was determined by PCR techniques. The incidence in each centre and the annual incidence of outbreaks by centre were calculated. Differences were calculated using the chi-square test and the Student's t test, taking a p value of > 0.05 as significant. Seventeen outbreaks (6 in hospitals and 11 in nursing homes) were detected. The global attack rate was 33.4% (652/1951) and was slightly higher in nursing homes (35.2%) than in hospitals (31.4%). A total of 94.1% (16/17) of outbreaks were caused by person-to-person transmission and only 5.9% (1/17) by foods. The mean number of days between the first and last case was 11.4 (SD = 6.9). The mean duration of symptoms was 2.39 days (SD=1.6), and was higher hospitals, 2.63 (SD=1.7), than in nursing homes, 1.97 (SD=1.7) (p < 0.0001). Norovirus is responsible for a large number of outbreaks due to person-to-person transmission. Control should be standardized to reduce the number and duration of outbreaks.

  5. Measles outbreak investigation in Guji zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Ketema; Tegegne, Ayesheshem Ademe; Mersha, Amare Mengistu; Bayenessagne, Mekonnen Getahun; Hussein, Ibrahim; Bezabeh, Belay

    2017-01-01

    Despite the increase of immunization coverage (administrative) of measles in the country, there are widespread outbreaks of measles. In this respect, we investigated one of the outbreaks that occurred in hard to reach kebeles of Guji Zone, Oromia region, to identify the contributing factors that lead to the protracted outbreak of measles. We used a cross-sectional study design to investigate a measles outbreak in Guji zone, Oromia region. Data entry and analysis was performed using EPI-Info version 7.1.0.6 and MS-Microsoft Excel. In three months' time a total of 1059 suspected cases and two deaths were reported from 9 woredas affected by a measles outbreak in Guji zone. The cumulative attack rate of 81/100,000 population and case fatality ratio of 0.2% was recorded. Of these, 821 (77.5%) cases were measles vaccine. Although, all age groups were affected under five years old were more affected 495 (48%) than any other age groups. In response to the outbreak, an outbreak response immunization was organized at the 11th week of the epidemic, when the epidemic curve started to decline. 6 months to14 years old were targeted for outbreak response immunization and the overall coverage was 97 % (range: 90-103%). Case management with vitamin A supplementation, active case search, and health education was some of the activities carried out to curb the outbreak. We conclude that low routine immunization coverage in conjunction with low access to routine immunization in hard to reach areas, low community awareness in utilization of immunization service, inadequate cold chain management and delivery of a potent vaccine in hard to reach woredas/kebeles were likely contributed to the outbreak that's triggered a broad spread epidemic affecting mostly children without any vaccination. We also figured that the case-based surveillance lacks sensitivity and timely confirmation of the outbreak, which as a result outbreak response immunization were delayed. We recommend establishing

  6. Crisis prevention and management during SARS outbreak, Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quah, Stella R; Hin-Peng, Lee

    2004-02-01

    We discuss crisis prevention and management during the first 3 months of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Singapore. Four public health issues were considered: prevention measures, self-health evaluation, SARS knowledge, and appraisal of crisis management. We conducted telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,201 adults, > or = 21 years of age. We found that sex, age, and attitude (anxiety and perception of open communication with authorities) were associated with practicing preventive measures. Analysis of Singapore's outbreak improves our understanding of the social dimensions of infectious disease outbreaks.

  7. Phylodynamics of Yellow Fever Virus in the Americas: new insights into the origin of the 2017 Brazilian outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir, Daiana; Delatorre, Edson; Bonaldo, Myrna; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Ricardo; Vicente, Ana Carolina; Bello, Gonzalo

    2017-08-07

    Yellow fever virus (YFV) strains circulating in the Americas belong to two distinct genotypes (I and II) that have diversified into several concurrent enzootic lineages. Since 1999, YFV genotype I has spread outside endemic regions and its recent (2017) reemergence in non-endemic Southeastern Brazilian states fuels one of the largest epizootic of jungle Yellow Fever registered in the country. To better understand this phenomenon, we reconstructed the phylodynamics of YFV American genotypes using sequences from nine countries sampled along 60 years, including strains from Brazilian 2017 outbreak. Our analyses reveals that YFV genotypes I and II follow roughly similar evolutionary and demographic dynamics until the early 1990s, when a dramatic change in the diversification process of the genotype I occurred associated with the emergence and dissemination of a new lineage (here called modern). Trinidad and Tobago was the most likely source of the YFV modern-lineage that spread to Brazil and Venezuela around the late 1980s, where it replaced all lineages previously circulating. The modern-lineage caused all major YFV outbreaks detected in non-endemic South American regions since 2000, including the 2017 Brazilian outbreak, and its dissemination was coupled to the accumulation of several amino acid substitutions particularly within non-structural viral proteins.

  8. Cost of a measles outbreak in a remote island economy: 2014 Federated States of Micronesia measles outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Jamison; Tippins, Ashley; Nyaku, Mawuli; Eckert, Maribeth; Helgenberger, Louisa; Underwood, J Michael

    2017-10-13

    After 20years with no reported measles cases, on May 15, 2014 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was notified of two cases testing positive for measles-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Under the Compact of Free Association, FSM receives immunization funding and technical support from the United States (US) domestic vaccination program managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In a collaborative effort, public health officials and volunteers from FSM and the US government worked to respond and contain the measles outbreak through an emergency mass vaccination campaign, contact tracing, and other outbreak investigation activities. Contributions were also made by United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Health Organization (WHO). Total costs incurred as a result of the outbreak were nearly $4,000,000; approximately $10,000 per case. Direct medical costs (≈$141,000) were incurred in the treatment of those individuals infected, as well as lost productivity of the infected and informal caregivers (≈$250,000) and costs to contain the outbreak (≈$3.5 million). We assessed the economic burden of the 2014 measles outbreak to FSM, as well as the economic responsibilities of the US. Although the US paid the majority of total costs of the outbreak (≈67%), examining each country's costs relative to their respective economy illustrates a far greater burden to FSM. We demonstrate that while FSM was heavily assisted by the US in responding to the 2014 Measles Outbreak, the outbreak significantly impacted their economy. FSM's economic burden from the outbreak is approximately equivalent to their entire 2016 Fiscal Year budget dedicated to education. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Epidemiology of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks, United States, 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelo, K M; Nisler, A L; Hall, A J; Brown, L G; Gould, L H

    2017-02-01

    Although contamination of food can occur at any point from farm to table, restaurant food workers are a common source of foodborne illness. We describe the characteristics of restaurant-associated foodborne disease outbreaks and explore the role of food workers by analysing outbreaks associated with restaurants from 1998 to 2013 reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System. We identified 9788 restaurant-associated outbreaks. The median annual number of outbreaks was 620 (interquartile range 618-629). In 3072 outbreaks with a single confirmed aetiology reported, norovirus caused the largest number of outbreaks (1425, 46%). Of outbreaks with a single food reported and a confirmed aetiology, fish (254 outbreaks, 34%) was most commonly implicated, and these outbreaks were commonly caused by scombroid toxin (219 outbreaks, 86% of fish outbreaks). Most outbreaks (79%) occurred at sit-down establishments. The most commonly reported contributing factors were those related to food handling and preparation practices in the restaurant (2955 outbreaks, 61%). Food workers contributed to 2415 (25%) outbreaks. Knowledge of the foods, aetiologies, and contributing factors that result in foodborne disease restaurant outbreaks can help guide efforts to prevent foodborne illness.

  10. A Comparative Assessment of Epidemiologically Different Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreaks in Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia: An Estimation of the Reproduction Number via a Mathematical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuj Mubayi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the Leishmania parasite and transmitted by the Phlebotominae subfamily of sandflies, which infects humans and other mammals. Clinical manifestations of the disease include cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL, mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL and visceral leishmaniasis (VL with a majority (more than three-quarters of worldwide cases being CL. There are a number of risk factors for CL, such as the presence of multiple reservoirs, the movement of individuals, inequality, and social determinants of health. However, studies related to the role of these factors in the dynamics of CL have been limited. In this work, we (i develop and analyze a vector-borne epidemic model to study the dynamics of CL in two ecologically distinct CL-affected regions—Madrid, Spain and Tolima, Colombia; (ii derived three different methods for the estimation of model parameters by reducing the dimension of the systems; (iii estimated reproduction numbers for the 2010 outbreak in Madrid and the 2016 outbreak in Tolima; and (iv compared the transmission potential of the two economically-different regions and provided different epidemiological metrics that can be derived (and used for evaluating an outbreak, once R0 is known and additional data are available. On average, Spain has reported only a few hundred CL cases annually, but in the course of the outbreak during 2009–2012, a much higher number of cases than expected were reported and that too in the single city of Madrid. Cases in humans were accompanied by sharp increase in infections among domestic dogs, the natural reservoir of CL. On the other hand, CL has reemerged in Colombia primarily during the last decade, because of the frequent movement of military personnel to domestic regions from forested areas, where they have increased exposure to vectors. In 2016, Tolima saw an unexpectedly high number of cases leading to two successive outbreaks. On comparing, we

  11. An Outbreak of Sheep Pox in Zabajkalskij kray of Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksyutov, R A; Gavrilova, E V; Agafonov, A P; Taranov, O S; Glotov, A G; Miheev, V N; Shchelkunov, S N; Sergeev, A N

    2015-08-01

    In this study, we investigated recent sheep pox outbreaks that occurred in Ononsky and Borzunsky regions of Zabajkalskij kray of Russia. The outbreaks involved in 2756 animals of which 112 were infected and 3 were slaughtered. Samples of injured skin of infected sheep were analysed by electron microscopy and CaPV-specific P32 gene amplification. Following sequence analysis of entire P32 gene showed that both specimens were identical to the sequence of several sheep poxvirus isolates from China and India. The close location of China to the last decade's Russian outbreaks suggest that possible future outbreaks in Russia could occur along the border regions with countries where sheep and goat pox are not controlled. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  12. Mitigating measles outbreaks in West Africa post-Ebola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truelove, Shaun A; Moss, William J; Lessler, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The Ebola outbreak in 2014-2015 devastated the populations, economies and healthcare systems of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. With this devastation comes the impending threat of outbreaks of other infectious diseases like measles. Strategies for mitigating these risks must include both prevention, through vaccination, and case detection and management, focused on surveillance, diagnosis and appropriate clinical care and case management. With the high transmissibility of measles virus, small-scale reactive vaccinations will be essential to extinguish focal outbreaks, while national vaccination campaigns are needed to guarantee vaccination coverage targets are reached in the long term. Rapid and multifaceted strategies should carefully navigate challenges present in the wake of Ebola, while also taking advantage of current Ebola-related activities and international attention. Above all, resources and focus currently aimed at these countries must be utilized to build up the deficit in infrastructure and healthcare systems that contributed to the extent of the Ebola outbreak.

  13. Biosecurity and Biodefense: Lessons from Ebola Virus Outbreak

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lebea, Phiyani J

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available , should a contagious outbreak be suspected. Such a policy would be adopted by regional member states since diseases such as Ebola respect no national boundaries. Secondly, research infrastructure including BSL 4 laboratories that address research on animal...

  14. Successful Multi-partner Response to a Cholera Outbreak

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    46987.2

    World Health Organisation,. Country Office ... a global threat to public health and a key indicator of inadequate .... While the cholera outbreak in Lusaka was first reported in. Kanyama ... restaurants, markets, schools and other public places of.

  15. ORIGINAL ARTICLES Outbreak of Rift Valley fever affecting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and veterinarians are at an increased risk of infection.4,6-8 No human- to-human transmission has been ... Outbreak Response Unit, National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) of the National Health .... Notification & initial interviews.

  16. An isolated outbreak of diphtheria in South Africa, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahomed, S; Archary, M; Mutevedzi, P; Mahabeer, Y; Govender, P; Ntshoe, G; Kuhn, W; Thomas, J; Olowolagba, A; Blumberg, L; McCarthy, K; Mlisana, K; DU Plessis, M; VON Gottberg, A; Moodley, P

    2017-07-01

    An outbreak of respiratory diphtheria occurred in two health districts in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa in 2015. A multidisciplinary outbreak response team was involved in the investigation and management of the outbreak. Fifteen cases of diphtheria were identified, with ages ranging from 4 to 41 years. Of the 12 cases that were under the age of 18 years, 9 (75%) were not fully immunized for diphtheria. The case fatality was 27%. Ninety-three household contacts, 981 school or work contacts and 595 healthcare worker contacts were identified and given prophylaxis against Corynebacterium diphtheriae infection. A targeted vaccination campaign for children aged 6-15 years was carried out at schools in the two districts. The outbreak highlighted the need to improve diphtheria vaccination coverage in the province and to investigate the feasibility of offering diphtheria vaccines to healthcare workers.

  17. Ebola Viral Hemorrhagic Disease Outbreak in West Africa- Lessons ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... to contain the Ebola epidemic. Key words: Ebola, viral hemorrhagic fever, West Africa, lessons, Uganda .... the corresponding surveillance systems for detecting priority diseases. ... A major outbreak of Yellow Fe- ver was reported in five ...

  18. Control Measures Used during Lymphogranuloma Venereum Outbreak, Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulscher, Marlies E.J.L.; Vos, Dieuwke; van de Laar, Marita J.W.; Fenton, Kevin A.; van Steenbergen, Jim E.; van der Meer, Jos W.M.; Grol, Richard P.T.M.

    2008-01-01

    To assess the response to the reemergence of lymphogranuloma venereum, we conducted a cross-sectional survey by administering a structured questionnaire to representatives from 26 European countries. Responses were received from 18 countries. The ability to respond quickly and the measures used for outbreak detection and control varied. Evidence-based criteria were not consistently used to develop recommendations. We did not develop criteria to determine the effectiveness of the recommendations. The degree of preparedness for an unexpected outbreak, as well as the ability of countries to respond quickly to alerts, varied, which indicates weaknesses in the ability to control an outbreak. More guidance is needed to implement and evaluate control measures used during international outbreaks. PMID:18394274

  19. Pertussis outbreak in northwest Ireland, January - June 2010.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Barret, A S

    2010-09-02

    We report a community pertussis outbreak that occurred in a small town located in the northwest of Ireland. Epidemiological investigations suggest that waning immunity and the absence of a booster dose during the second year of life could have contributed to the outbreak. The report also highlights the need to reinforce the surveillance of pertussis in Ireland and especially to improve the clinical and laboratory diagnosis of cases.

  20. Cryptococcosis outbreak in psittacine birds in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raso, T F; Werther, K; Miranda, E T; Mendes-Giannini, M J S

    2004-08-01

    An outbreak of cryptococcosis occurred in a breeding aviary in São Paulo, Brazil. Seven psittacine birds (of species Charmosyna papou, Lorius lory, Trichoglossus goldiei, Psittacula krameri and Psittacus erithacus) died of disseminated cryptococcosis. Incoordination, progressive paralysis and difficulty in flying were seen in five birds, whereas superficial lesions coincident with respiratory alterations were seen in two birds. Encapsulated yeasts suggestive of Cryptococcus sp. were seen in faecal smears stained with India ink in two cases. Histological examination of the birds showed cryptococcal cells in various tissues, including the beak, choana, sinus, lungs, air sacs, heart, liver, spleen, kidneys, intestines and central nervous system. High titres of cryptococcal antigen were observed in the serum of an affected bird. In this case, titres increased during treatment and the bird eventually died. Yeasts were isolated from the nasal mass, faeces and liver of one bird. Cryptococcus neoformans var. gattii serovar B was identified based on biochemical, physiological and serological tests. These strains were resistant (minimum inhibitory concentration 64 microg/ml) to fluconazole. This is the first report of C. neoformans var. gattii occurring in psittacine birds in Brazil.

  1. Avian Schistosomes and Outbreaks of Cercarial Dermatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikeš, Libor; Lichtenbergová, Lucie; Skála, Vladimír; Soldánová, Miroslava; Brant, Sara Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    SUMMARY Cercarial dermatitis (swimmer's itch) is a condition caused by infective larvae (cercariae) of a species-rich group of mammalian and avian schistosomes. Over the last decade, it has been reported in areas that previously had few or no cases of dermatitis and is thus considered an emerging disease. It is obvious that avian schistosomes are responsible for the majority of reported dermatitis outbreaks around the world, and thus they are the primary focus of this review. Although they infect humans, they do not mature and usually die in the skin. Experimental infections of avian schistosomes in mice show that in previously exposed hosts, there is a strong skin immune reaction that kills the schistosome. However, penetration of larvae into naive mice can result in temporary migration from the skin. This is of particular interest because the worms are able to migrate to different organs, for example, the lungs in the case of visceral schistosomes and the central nervous system in the case of nasal schistosomes. The risk of such migration and accompanying disorders needs to be clarified for humans and animals of interest (e.g., dogs). Herein we compiled the most comprehensive review of the diversity, immunology, and epidemiology of avian schistosomes causing cercarial dermatitis. PMID:25567226

  2. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  3. An Outbreak of Foxglove Leaf Poisoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Chi Lin

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Comfrey (Symphytum officinale leaves resemble those of foxglove (Digitalis purpurea when the plant is not in bloom and, therefore, cardiac glycoside poisoning may occur when people confuse foxglove with comfrey. We report an outbreak of foxglove leaf poisoning following the use of alleged “comfrey” herbal tea. Nine patients were involved and initially presented with nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and dizziness. Significant cardiotoxicity developed later among the 3 patients who also had mild hyperkalemia. Peak serum digoxin concentration measured by immunoassay was elevated in all patients and ranged from 4.4 ng/mL to 139.5 ng/mL. Patients with severe cardiotoxicity were treated with temporary cardiac pacing. Moreover, 40–80 mg of digoxin-specific antibody therapy was given without any effect. All patients recovered uneventfully. Our report highlights the potential risk of misidentification of herbs; in this case, D. purpurea was mistaken for S. officinale. Physicians should be aware that cardiac glycoside poisoning could arise from such misidentification. Public education about the toxicity of D. purpurea poisoning may reduce the risk of misidentification and subsequent poisoning.

  4. Sleep EEG of Microcephaly in Zika Outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Paulo Afonso Medeiros; Aguiar, Aline de Almeida Xavier; Miranda, Jose Lucivan; Falcao, Alexandre Loverde; Andrade, Claudia Suenia; Reis, Luigi Neves Dos Santos; Almeida, Ellen White R Bacelar; Bello, Yanes Brum; Monfredinho, Arthur; Kanda, Rafael Guimaraes

    2018-01-01

    Microcephaly (MC), previously considered rare, is now a health emergency of international concern because of the devastating Zika virus pandemic outbreak of 2015. The authors describe the electroencephalogram (EEG) findings in sleep EEG of epileptic children who were born with microcephaly in areas of Brazil with active Zika virus transmission between 2014 and 2017. The authors reviewed EEGs from 23 children. Nine were females (39.2%), and the age distribution varied from 4 to 48 months. MC was associated with mother positive serology to toxoplasmosis (toxo), rubella (rub), herpes, and dengue (1 case); toxo (1 case); chikungunya virus (CHIKV) (1 case); syphilis (1 case); and Zika virus (ZIKV) (10 cases). In addition, 1 case was associated with perinatal hypoxia and causes of 9 cases remain unknown. The main background EEG abnormality was diffuse slowing (10 cases), followed by classic (3 cases) and modified (5 cases) hypsarrhythmia. A distinct EEG pattern was seen in ZIKV (5 cases), toxo (2 cases), and undetermined cause (1 case). It was characterized by runs of frontocentrotemporal 4.5-13 Hz activity (7 cases) or diffuse and bilateral runs of 18-24 Hz (1 case). In ZIKV, this rhythmic activity was associated with hypsarrhythmia or slow background. Further studies are necessary to determine if this association is suggestive of ZIKV infection. The authors believe that EEG should be included in the investigation of all newly diagnosed congenital MC, especially those occurring in areas of autochthonous transmission of ZIKV.

  5. An outbreak of foxglove leaf poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chun-Chi; Yang, Chen-Chang; Phua, Dong-Haur; Deng, Jou-Fang; Lu, Li-Hua

    2010-02-01

    Comfrey (Symphytum officinale) leaves resemble those of foxglove (Digitalis purpurea) when the plant is not in bloom and, therefore, cardiac glycoside poisoning may occur when people confuse foxglove with comfrey. We report an outbreak of foxglove leaf poisoning following the use of alleged "comfrey" herbal tea. Nine patients were involved and initially presented with nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and dizziness. Significant cardiotoxicity developed later among the 3 patients who also had mild hyperkalemia. Peak serum digoxin concentration measured by immunoassay was elevated in all patients and ranged from 4.4 ng/mL to 139.5 ng/mL. Patients with severe cardiotoxicity were treated with temporary cardiac pacing. Moreover, 40-80 mg of digoxin-specific antibody therapy was given without any effect. All patients recovered uneventfully. Our report highlights the potential risk of misidentification of herbs; in this case, D. purpurea was mistaken for S. officinale. Physicians should be aware that cardiac glycoside poisoning could arise from such misidentification. Public education about the toxicity of D. purpurea poisoning may reduce the risk of misidentification and subsequent poisoning. Copyright 2010 Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Outbreaks of forest defoliating insects in Japan, 1950-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamata, N; Kamata, N

    2002-04-01

    In Japan, several forest-defoliating insects reach outbreak levels and cause serious defoliation. Stand mortality sometimes occurs after severe defoliation. However, in general, tree mortality caused by insect defoliation is low because of the prevailing moist climate in Japan. Evergreen conifers are more susceptible to tree mortality as a result of insect defoliation whereas deciduous broad-leaved trees are seldom killed. Insect defoliation occurs more frequently in man-made environments such as among shade trees, orchards, and plantations than in natural habitats. Outbreaks of some defoliators tend to occur in stands of a particular age: e.g. outbreaks of the pine caterpillar, Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) occur more frequently in young pine plantations. In contrast, defoliation caused by outbreaks of lepidopterous and hymenopterous pests in larch plantations is more frequent with stand maturation. There is a relationship between outbreaks of some defoliators and altitude above sea level. Most outbreaks of forest defoliators were terminated by insect pathogens that operated in a density-dependent fashion. Since the 1970s, Japan has been prosperous and can afford to buy timber from abroad. More recently, there has been an increasing demand for timber in Japan, that coincides with a huge demand internationally, so that the country will need to produce more timber locally in the future. The increasing pressure on the forestry industry to meet this demand will require more sophisticated methods of pest control coupled with more sustainable methods of silviculture.

  7. An outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis at an outpatient ophthalmology clinic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy J Doyle

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC is an acute eye infection caused by adenovirus. We investigated an outbreak of EKC at an outpatient ophthalmology practice in the context of a suspected community wide increase in EKC activity. A site visit was made to the facility reporting the outbreak. A line list was created of patients clinically diagnosed with EKC at the practice during the previous 5 months. A questionnaire was faxed to all other licensed ophthalmologists in the county regarding recent EKC activity in their facility. Descriptive data analyses were conducted. The outbreak facility reported 37 patients clinically diagnosed with EKC during the previous 5 months. In addition, the single ophthalmologist at the practice also had symptoms compatible with EKC during the outbreak period. Specimens were collected on 4 patients and all were positive for adenovirus serotype 8. Forty percent of ophthalmologists surveyed in the county saw at least one EKC patient in the previous 3 months, and 20% reported a perceived increase in EKC activity in recent months over normal seasonal patterns. The outbreak at the facility likely began as part of a widespread community increase in EKC that may have been amplified at the facility through nosocomial transmission. Medical providers experiencing increases in EKC activity above seasonally expected norms should contact their public health department for assistance with etiologic diagnoses and outbreak control.

  8. A Gastroenteritis Outbreak Caused by Noroviruses in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Alamanos

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In June 2006, an outbreak alert regarding cases of acute gastroenteritis in a region in North Eastern Greece (population 100,882 inhabitants, triggered investigations to guide control measures. The outbreak started the first days of June, and peaked in July. A descriptive epidemiological study, a virological characterization of the viral agent identified from cases as well as a phylogenetic analysis was performed. From June 5 to September 3, 2006 (weeks 23–44, 1,640 cases of gastroenteritis (45.2% male and 54.8% female, aged 3 months to 89 years were reported. The overall attack rate for the period was 16.3 cases/1,000 inhabitants. About 57% of cases observed were under the age of 15 years. Αnalysis of faecal samples identified Norovirus GII strains. Fifteen different Norovirus GII strains were recorded, presenting a homology of 94.8% (86–97% to GII strains obtained from GenBank. The long duration of the outbreak suggests an important role of person-to-person transmission, while the emergence of the outbreak was possibly due to contaminated potable water, although no viruses were detected in any tested water samples. This outbreak underscores the need for a national surveillance system for acute non-bacterial gastroenteritis outbreaks.

  9. A Classification System for Hospital-Based Infection Outbreaks

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    Paul S. Ganney

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of infection within semi-closed environments such as hospitals, whether inherent in the environment (such as Clostridium difficile (C.Diff or Methicillinresistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA or imported from the wider community (such as Norwalk-like viruses (NLVs, are difficult to manage. As part of our work on modelling such outbreaks, we have developed a classification system to describe the impact of a particular outbreak upon an organization. This classification system may then be used in comparing appropriate computer models to real outbreaks, as well as in comparing different real outbreaks in, for example, the comparison of differing management and containment techniques and strategies. Data from NLV outbreaks in the Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust (the Trust over several previous years are analysed and classified, both for infection within staff (where the end of infection date may not be known and within patients (where it generally is known. A classification system consisting of seven elements is described, along with a goodness-of-fit method for comparing a new classification to previously known ones, for use in evaluating a simulation against history and thereby determining how ‘realistic’ (or otherwise it is.

  10. A classification system for hospital-based infection outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganney, Paul S; Madeo, Maurice; Phillips, Roger

    2010-12-01

    Outbreaks of infection within semi-closed environments such as hospitals, whether inherent in the environment (such as Clostridium difficile (C.Diff) or Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) or imported from the wider community (such as Norwalk-like viruses (NLVs)), are difficult to manage. As part of our work on modelling such outbreaks, we have developed a classification system to describe the impact of a particular outbreak upon an organization. This classification system may then be used in comparing appropriate computer models to real outbreaks, as well as in comparing different real outbreaks in, for example, the comparison of differing management and containment techniques and strategies. Data from NLV outbreaks in the Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust (the Trust) over several previous years are analysed and classified, both for infection within staff (where the end of infection date may not be known) and within patients (where it generally is known). A classification system consisting of seven elements is described, along with a goodness-of-fit method for comparing a new classification to previously known ones, for use in evaluating a simulation against history and thereby determining how 'realistic' (or otherwise) it is.

  11. Outbreaks of virulent diarrheagenic Escherichia coli - are we in control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werber Dirk

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC are the most virulent diarrheagenic E. coli known to date. They can be spread with alarming ease via food as exemplified by a large sprout-borne outbreak of STEC O104:H4 in 2011 that was centered in northern Germany and affected several countries. Effective control of such outbreaks is an important public health task and necessitates early outbreak detection, fast identification of the outbreak vehicle and immediate removal of the suspected food from the market, flanked by consumer advice and measures to prevent secondary spread. In our view, opportunities to improve control of STEC outbreaks lie in early clinical suspicion for STEC infection, timely diagnosis of all STEC at the serotype-level and integrating molecular subtyping information into surveillance systems. Furthermore, conducting analytical studies that supplement patients' imperfect food history recall and performing, as an investigative element, product tracebacks, are pivotal but underutilized tools for successful epidemiologic identification of the suspected vehicle in foodborne outbreaks. As a corollary, these tools are amenable to tailor microbiological testing of suspected food. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/12

  12. Evolutionary history and phylogeography of rabies viruses associated with outbreaks in Trinidad.

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    Janine F R Seetahal

    Full Text Available Bat rabies is an emerging disease of public health significance in the Americas. The Caribbean island of Trinidad experiences periodic outbreaks within the livestock population. We performed molecular characterisation of Trinidad rabies virus (RABV and used a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to investigate the extent to which outbreaks are a result of in situ evolution versus importation of virus from the nearby South American mainland. Trinidadian RABV sequences were confirmed as bat variant and clustered with Desmodus rotundus (vampire bat related sequences. They fell into two largely temporally defined lineages designated Trinidad I and II. The Trinidad I lineage which included sequences from 1997-2000 (all but two of which were from the northeast of the island was most closely related to RABV from Ecuador (2005, 2007, French Guiana (1990 and Venezuela (1993, 1994. Trinidad II comprised sequences from the southwest of the island, which clustered into two groups: Trinidad IIa, which included one sequence each from 2000 and 2007, and Trinidad IIb including all 2010 sequences. The Trinidad II sequences were most closely related to sequences from Brazil (1999, 2004 and Uruguay (2007, 2008. Phylogeographic analyses support three separate RABV introductions from the mainland from which each of the three Trinidadian lineages arose. The estimated dates for the introductions and subsequent lineage expansions suggest periods of in situ evolution within Trinidad following each introduction. These data also indicate co-circulation of Trinidad lineage I and IIa during 2000. In light of these findings and the likely vampire bat origin of Trinidadian RABV, further studies should be conducted to investigate the relationship between RABV spatiotemporal dynamics and vampire bat population ecology, in particular any movement between the mainland and Trinidad.

  13. Evolutionary History and Phylogeography of Rabies Viruses Associated with Outbreaks in Trinidad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seetahal, Janine F. R.; Velasco-Villa, Andres; Allicock, Orchid M.; Adesiyun, Abiodun A.; Bissessar, Joseph; Amour, Kirk; Phillip-Hosein, Annmarie; Marston, Denise A.; McElhinney, Lorraine M.; Shi, Mang; Wharwood, Cheryl-Ann; Fooks, Anthony R.; Carrington, Christine V. F.

    2013-01-01

    Bat rabies is an emerging disease of public health significance in the Americas. The Caribbean island of Trinidad experiences periodic outbreaks within the livestock population. We performed molecular characterisation of Trinidad rabies virus (RABV) and used a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to investigate the extent to which outbreaks are a result of in situ evolution versus importation of virus from the nearby South American mainland. Trinidadian RABV sequences were confirmed as bat variant and clustered with Desmodus rotundus (vampire bat) related sequences. They fell into two largely temporally defined lineages designated Trinidad I and II. The Trinidad I lineage which included sequences from 1997–2000 (all but two of which were from the northeast of the island) was most closely related to RABV from Ecuador (2005, 2007), French Guiana (1990) and Venezuela (1993, 1994). Trinidad II comprised sequences from the southwest of the island, which clustered into two groups: Trinidad IIa, which included one sequence each from 2000 and 2007, and Trinidad IIb including all 2010 sequences. The Trinidad II sequences were most closely related to sequences from Brazil (1999, 2004) and Uruguay (2007, 2008). Phylogeographic analyses support three separate RABV introductions from the mainland from which each of the three Trinidadian lineages arose. The estimated dates for the introductions and subsequent lineage expansions suggest periods of in situ evolution within Trinidad following each introduction. These data also indicate co-circulation of Trinidad lineage I and IIa during 2000. In light of these findings and the likely vampire bat origin of Trinidadian RABV, further studies should be conducted to investigate the relationship between RABV spatiotemporal dynamics and vampire bat population ecology, in particular any movement between the mainland and Trinidad. PMID:23991230

  14. Contagious comments: what was the online buzz about the 2011 Quebec measles outbreak?

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    Jennifer A Pereira

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although interruption of endemic measles was achieved in the Americas in 2002, Quebec experienced an outbreak in 2011 of 776 reported cases; 80% of these individuals had not been fully vaccinated. We analyzed readers' online responses to Canadian news articles regarding the outbreak to better understand public perceptions of measles and vaccination. METHODS: We searched Canadian online English and French news sites for articles posted between April 2011 and March 2012 containing the words "measles" and "Quebec". We included articles that i concerned the outbreak or related vaccination strategies; and ii generated at least ten comments. Two English and two bilingual researchers coded the unedited comments, categorizing codes to allow themes to emerge. RESULTS: We analyzed 448 comments from 188 individuals, in response to three French articles and six English articles; 112 individuals expressed positive perceptions of measles vaccination (2.2 comments/person, 38 were negative (4.2 comments/person, 11 had mixed feelings (1.5 comments/person, and 27 expressed no opinion (1.1 comments/person. Vaccine-supportive themes involved the success of vaccination in preventing disease spread, societal responsibility to vaccinate for herd immunity, and refutation of the autism link. Those against measles vaccination felt it was a personal rather than societal choice, and conveyed a distrust of vaccine manufacturers, believing that measles infection is not only safe but safer than vaccination. Commenters with mixed feelings expressed uncertainty of the infection's severity, and varied in support of all vaccines based on perceived risk/benefit ratios. CONCLUSION: The anti-vaccine minority's volume of comments translates to a disproportionately high representation on online boards. Public health messages should address concerns by emphasizing that immunization is always a personal choice in Canada, and that the pharmaceutical industry is strictly

  15. Spatio-temporal dynamics of global H5N1 outbreaks match bird migration patterns

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    Yali Si

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry, wild birds and humans, poses a significant pandemic threat and a serious public health risk. An efficient surveillance and disease control system relies on the understanding of the dispersion patterns and spreading mechanisms of the virus. A space-time cluster analysis of H5N1 outbreaks was used to identify spatio-temporal patterns at a global scale and over an extended period of time. Potential mechanisms explaining the spread of the H5N1 virus, and the role of wild birds, were analyzed. Between December 2003 and December 2006, three global epidemic phases of H5N1 influenza were identified. These H5N1 outbreaks showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high density of outbreaks in winter and early spring (i.e., October to March. In phase I and II only the East Asia Australian flyway was affected. During phase III, the H5N1 viruses started to appear in four other flyways: the Central Asian flyway, the Black Sea Mediterranean flyway, the East Atlantic flyway and the East Africa West Asian flyway. Six disease cluster patterns along these flyways were found to be associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. The spread of the H5N1 virus, as demonstrated by the space-time clusters, was associated with the patterns of migration of wild birds. Wild birds may therefore play an important role in the spread of H5N1 over long distances. Disease clusters were also detected at sites where wild birds are known to overwinter and at times when migratory birds were present. This leads to the suggestion that wild birds may also be involved in spreading the H5N1 virus over short distances.

  16. Synchronized oviposition triggered by migratory flight intensifies larval outbreaks of beet webworm.

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    Yun Xia Cheng

    Full Text Available Identifying the reproductive consequences of insect migration is critical to understanding its ecological and evolutionary significance. However, many empirical studies are seemingly contradictory, making recognition of unifying themes elusive and controversial. The beet webworm, Loxostege sticticalis L. is a long-range migratory pest of many crops in the northern temperate zone from 36 °N to 55 °N, with larval populations often exploding in regions receiving immigrants. In laboratory experiments, we examined (i the reproductive costs of migratory flight by tethered flight, and (ii the reproductive traits contributing to larval outbreaks of immigrant populations. Our results suggest that the beet webworm does not initiate migratory flight until the 2nd or 3rd night after emergence. Preoviposition period, lifetime fecundity, mating capacity, and egg hatch rate for adults that experienced prolonged flight after the 2nd night did not differ significantly from unflown moths, suggesting these traits are irrelevant to the severity of beet webworm outbreaks after migration. However, the period of first oviposition, a novel parameter developed in this paper measuring synchrony of first egg-laying by cohorts of post-migratory females, for moths flown on d 3 and 5 of adulthood was shorter than that of unflown moths, indicating a tightened time-window for onset of oviposition after migration. The resulting synchrony of egg-laying will serve to increase egg and subsequent larval densities. A dense population offers potential selective advantages to the individual larvae comprising it, whereas the effect from the human standpoint is intensification of damage by an outbreak population. The strategy of synchronized oviposition may be common in other migratory insect pests, such as locust and armyworm species, and warrants further study.

  17. Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to support the control of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fähnrich, C; Denecke, K; Adeoye, O O; Benzler, J; Claus, H; Kirchner, G; Mall, S; Richter, R; Schapranow, M P; Schwarz, N; Tom-Aba, D; Uflacker, M; Poggensee, G; Krause, G

    2015-03-26

    In the context of controlling the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), the World Health Organization claimed that 'critical determinant of epidemic size appears to be the speed of implementation of rigorous control measures', i.e. immediate follow-up of contact persons during 21 days after exposure, isolation and treatment of cases, decontamination, and safe burials. We developed the Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System (SORMAS) to improve efficiency and timeliness of these measures. We used the Design Thinking methodology to systematically analyse experiences from field workers and the Ebola Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) after successful control of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria. We developed a process model with seven personas representing the procedures of EVD outbreak control. The SORMAS system architecture combines latest In-Memory Database (IMDB) technology via SAP HANA (in-memory, relational database management system), enabling interactive data analyses, and established SAP cloud tools, such as SAP Afaria (a mobile device management software). The user interface consists of specific front-ends for smartphones and tablet devices, which are independent from physical configurations. SORMAS allows real-time, bidirectional information exchange between field workers and the EOC, ensures supervision of contact follow-up, automated status reports, and GPS tracking. SORMAS may become a platform for outbreak management and improved routine surveillance of any infectious disease. Furthermore, the SORMAS process model may serve as framework for EVD outbreak modeling.

  18. Longevity and fecundity of Dichroplus maculipennis (Orthoptera, Acrididae at non-outbreaking and outbreaking situations

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    Yanina Mariottini

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Dichroplus maculipennis is one of the most characteristic and damaging grasshopper species of Argentina, mainly in areas of the Pampas and Patagonia regions. We estimated and compared the longevity and fecundity of adult female D. maculipennis under controlled conditions (30ºC, 14L:10D, 40% RH from individuals collected as last instar nymphs (VI in the field and with a known recent history of low and high density conditions. Densities of D. maculipennis at the collecting sites were 0.95 individuals per m² in 2006 and 46 ind/m² in 2009, representing non-outbreaking and outbreaking situations, respectively. Adult female longevity in 2006 (67.96 ± 3.2 days was significantly higher (p 0.05. The fecundity curves showed that the highest values were at weeks 11 and 13 for the 2006 females, and at week 6 for those of 2009. Since the daily oviposition rate at low and high densities was not significantly different, the diminished fecundity rate at high density is attributable to their reduced longevity.

  19. Identification and control of a poliomyelitis outbreak in Xinjiang, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Hui-Ming; Zhang, Yong; Wang, Xin-Qi; Yu, Wen-Zhou; Wen, Ning; Yan, Dong-Mei; Wang, Hua-Qing; Wushouer, Fuerhati; Wang, Hai-Bo; Xu, Ai-Qiang; Zheng, Jing-Shan; Li, De-Xin; Cui, Hui; Wang, Jian-Ping; Zhu, Shuang-Li; Feng, Zi-Jian; Cui, Fu-Qiang; Ning, Jing; Hao, Li-Xin; Fan, Chun-Xiang; Ning, Gui-Jun; Yu, Hong-Jie; Wang, Shi-Wen; Liu, Da-Wei; Wang, Dong-Yan; Fu, Jian-Ping; Gou, Ai-li; Zhang, Guo-Min; Huang, Guo-Hong; Chen, Yuan-Sheng; Mi, Sha-Sha; Liu, Yan-Min; Yin, Da-Peng; Zhu, Hui; Fan, Xin-Chun; Li, Xin-Lan; Ji, Yi-Xin; Li, Ke-Li; Tang, Hai-Shu; Xu, Wen-Bo; Wang, Yu; Yang, Wei-Zhong

    2013-11-21

    The last case of infection with wild-type poliovirus indigenous to China was reported in 1994, and China was certified as a poliomyelitis-free region in 2000. In 2011, an outbreak of infection with imported wild-type poliovirus occurred in the province of Xinjiang. We conducted an investigation to guide the response to the outbreak, performed sequence analysis of the poliovirus type 1 capsid protein VP1 to determine the source, and carried out serologic and coverage surveys to assess the risk of viral propagation. Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis was intensified to enhance case ascertainment. Between July 3 and October 9, 2011, investigators identified 21 cases of infection with wild-type poliovirus and 23 clinically compatible cases in southern Xinjiang. Wild-type poliovirus type 1 was isolated from 14 of 673 contacts of patients with acute flaccid paralysis (2.1%) and from 13 of 491 healthy persons who were not in contact with affected persons (2.6%). Sequence analysis implicated an imported wild-type poliovirus that originated in Pakistan as the cause of the outbreak. A public health emergency was declared in Xinjiang after the outbreak was confirmed. Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis was enhanced, with daily reporting from all public and private hospitals. Five rounds of vaccination with live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) were conducted among children and adults, and 43 million doses of OPV were administered. Trivalent OPV was used in three rounds, and monovalent OPV type 1 was used in two rounds. The outbreak was stopped 1.5 months after laboratory confirmation of the index case. The 2011 outbreak in China showed that poliomyelitis-free countries remain at risk for outbreaks while the poliovirus circulates anywhere in the world. Global eradication of poliomyelitis will benefit all countries, even those that are currently free of poliomyelitis.

  20. Mining the key predictors for event outbreaks in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Chengqi; Bao, Yuanyuan; Xue, Yibo

    2016-04-01

    It will be beneficial to devise a method to predict a so-called event outbreak. Existing works mainly focus on exploring effective methods for improving the accuracy of predictions, while ignoring the underlying causes: What makes event go viral? What factors that significantly influence the prediction of an event outbreak in social networks? In this paper, we proposed a novel definition for an event outbreak, taking into account the structural changes to a network during the propagation of content. In addition, we investigated features that were sensitive to predicting an event outbreak. In order to investigate the universality of these features at different stages of an event, we split the entire lifecycle of an event into 20 equal segments according to the proportion of the propagation time. We extracted 44 features, including features related to content, users, structure, and time, from each segment of the event. Based on these features, we proposed a prediction method using supervised classification algorithms to predict event outbreaks. Experimental results indicate that, as time goes by, our method is highly accurate, with a precision rate ranging from 79% to 97% and a recall rate ranging from 74% to 97%. In addition, after applying a feature-selection algorithm, the top five selected features can considerably improve the accuracy of the prediction. Data-driven experimental results show that the entropy of the eigenvector centrality, the entropy of the PageRank, the standard deviation of the betweenness centrality, the proportion of re-shares without content, and the average path length are the key predictors for an event outbreak. Our findings are especially useful for further exploring the intrinsic characteristics of outbreak prediction.

  1. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John

  2. Genotypic and PFGE/MLVA analyses of Vibrio cholerae O1: geographical spread and temporal changes during the 2007-2010 cholera outbreaks in Thailand.

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    Kazuhisa Okada

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor dominated the seventh cholera pandemic which occurred in the 1960s. For two decades, variants of V. cholerae O1 El Tor that produce classical cholera toxin have emerged and spread globally, replacing the prototypic El Tor biotype. This study aims to characterize V. cholerae O1 isolates from outbreaks in Thailand with special reference to genotypic variations over time. METHODS/FINDINGS: A total of 343 isolates of V. cholerae O1 from cholera outbreaks from 2007 to 2010 were investigated, and 99.4% were found to carry the classical cholera toxin B subunit (ctxB and El Tor rstR genes. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE differentiated the isolates into 10 distinct pulsotypes, clustered into two major groups, A and B, with an overall similarity of 88%. Ribotyping, multiple-locus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA, and PCR to detect Vibrio seventh pandemic island II (VSP-II related genes of randomly selected isolates from each pulsotype corresponded to the results obtained by PFGE. Epidemiological investigations revealed that MLVA type 2 was strongly associated with a cholera outbreak in northeastern Thailand in 2007, while MLVA type 7 dominated the outbreaks of the southern Gulf areas in 2009 and MLVA type 4 dominated the outbreaks of the central Gulf areas during 2009-2010. Only MLVA type 16 isolates were found in a Thai-Myanmar border area in 2010, whereas those of MLVA types 26, 39, and 41 predominated this border area in 2008. Type 39 then disappeared 1-2 years later as MLVA type 41 became prevalent. Type 41 was also found to infect an outbreak area. CONCLUSIONS: MLVA provided a high-throughput genetic typing tool for understanding the in-depth epidemiology of cholera outbreaks. Our epidemiological surveys suggest that some clones of V. cholerae O1 with similar but distinctive genetic traits circulate in outbreak sites, while others disappear over time.

  3. Natural Disasters and Cholera Outbreaks: Current Understanding and Future Outlook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Khan, Rakibul; Colwell, Rita

    2017-03-01

    Diarrheal diseases remain a serious global public health threat, especially for those populations lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. Although association of several diarrheal diseases, e.g., cholera, shigellosis, etc., with climatic processes has been documented, the global human population remains at heightened risk of outbreak of diseases after natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, or droughts. In this review, cholera was selected as a signature diarrheal disease and the role of natural disasters in triggering and transmitting cholera was analyzed. Key observations include identification of an inherent feedback loop that includes societal structure, prevailing climatic processes, and spatio-temporal seasonal variability of natural disasters. Data obtained from satellite-based remote sensing are concluded to have application, although limited, in predicting risks of a cholera outbreak(s). We argue that with the advent of new high spectral and spatial resolution data, earth observation systems should be seamlessly integrated in a decision support mechanism to be mobilize resources when a region suffers a natural disaster. A framework is proposed that can be used to assess the impact of natural disasters with response to outbreak of cholera, providing assessment of short- and long-term influence of climatic processes on disease outbreaks.

  4. Polio outbreak investigation and response in Somalia, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamadjeu, Raoul; Mahamud, Abdirahman; Webeck, Jenna; Baranyikwa, Marie Therese; Chatterjee, Anirban; Bile, Yassin Nur; Birungi, Julianne; Mbaeyi, Chukwuma; Mulugeta, Abraham

    2014-11-01

    For >2 decades, conflicts and recurrent natural disasters have maintained Somalia in a chronic humanitarian crisis. For nearly 5 years, 1 million children polio once again. A case of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) was defined as a child Polio cases were defined as AFP cases with stool specimens positive for WPV. From 9 May to 31 December 2013, 189 cases of WPV type 1 (WPV1) were reported from 46 districts of Somalia; 42% were from Banadir region (Mogadishu), 60% were males, and 93% were polio cases belonged to cluster N5A, which is known to have been circulating in northern Nigeria since 2011. In response to the outbreak, 8 supplementary immunization activities were conducted with oral polio vaccine (OPV; trivalent OPV was used initially, followed subsequently by bivalent OPV) targeting various age groups, including children aged polio outbreak erupted after a polio-free period of >6 years (the last case was reported in March 2007). Somalia interrupted indigenous WPV transmission in 2002, was removed from the list of polio-endemic countries a year later, and has since demonstrated its ability to control polio outbreaks resulting from importation. This outbreak reiterates that the threat of large polio outbreaks resulting from WPV importation will remain constant unless polio transmission is interrupted in the remaining polio-endemic countries. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  5. An outbreak of Burkholderia stabilis colonization in a nasal ward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lijun; Wang, Mei; Zhang, Junyi; Wu, Wei; Lu, Yuan; Fan, Yanyan

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this study was to describe an outbreak of Burkholderia stabilis colonization among patients in a nasal ward. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) was used for the molecular typing of B. stabilis isolates. Microbiological records were reviewed to delineate the colonization outbreak period. One hundred seventy-one cultures of environment and equipment samples from the nasal ward were performed to trace the source of contamination. Infection control measures were taken in order to end the outbreak. All B. stabilis isolates were identified as a new MLST type, ST821. A total of 53 patients carried this B. stabilis in the nasal ward between March and September 2013, which was defined as the outbreak period. The source of the colonization was not determined because all environment cultures were negative for Burkholderia cepacia complex. No further B. stabilis carriers have been found in the ward since the implementation of interventions. Attention must be paid to asymptomatic colonization in order to identify outbreaks early. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. A theory of the Earth's magnetic field and of sunspots, based on a self-excited dynamo incorporating the Hall effect

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    A. de Paor

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A new viewpoint on the generation and maintenance of the Earth's magnetic field is put forward, which integrates self-exciting dynamo theory with the possibility of energy coupling along orthogonal axes provided by the Hall effect. A nonlinear third-order system is derived, with a fourth equation serving as an observer of unspecified geophysical processes which could result in field reversal. Lyapunov analysis proves that chaos is not intrinsic to this system. Relative constancy of one of the variables produces pseudo equilibrium in a second order subsystem and allows for self-excitation of the geomagnetic field. Electromagnetic analysis yields expressions for key parameters. Models for secular variations recorded at London, Palermo and at the Cape of Good Hope over the past four hundred years are offered. Offset of the Earth's magnetic axis from the geographic axis is central to time-varying declination, but its causes have not yet been established. Applicability of the model to the explanation of sunspot activity is outlined. A corroborating experiment published by Peter Barlow in 1831 is appended.

  7. Probability Estimates of Solar Particle Event Doses During a Period of Low Sunspot Number for Thinly-Shielded Spacecraft and Short Duration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

    2016-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.

  8. Severe canine distemper outbreak in unvaccinated dogs in Mozambique

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    Julieta Zacarias

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Although significant animal suffering caused by preventable diseases is frequently seen in developing countries, reports of this are scarce. This report describes avoidable animal suffering owing to a suspected canine distemper (CD outbreak in unvaccinated dogs owned by low-income families in Mozambique that killed approximately 200 animals. Affected dogs exhibited clinical signs, and gross and microscopic lesions compatible with CD. Immunohistochemical staining confirmed the presence of canine distemper virus (CDV in the kidney of one dog from the cohort. This brief communication again illustrates that large outbreaks of CDV in unvaccinated dogs occur and that large-scale avoidable suffering and threats to the health of dogs and wild canines continue. Mass vaccination supported by government and non-government organisations is recommended. Keywords: Canine distemper; dogs; outbreak; animal welfare; Mozambique

  9. An Outbreak of Measles in a University in Korea, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, Young June; Park, Young Joon; Kim, Ju Whi; Eom, Hye Eun; Park, Ok; Oh, Myoung Don; Lee, Jong Koo

    2017-11-01

    Measles has been declared eliminated from the Korea since 2006. In April 2014, a measles outbreak occurred at a University in Seoul. A total of 85 measles cases were identified. In order to estimate vaccine effectiveness of measles vaccine, we reviewed the vaccination records of the university students. The vaccine effectiveness of two doses of measles containing vaccine was 60.0% (95% CI, 38.2-74.1; P < 0.05). Transmission was interrupted after the introduction of outbreak-response immunization. The outbreak shows that pockets of under-immunity among college students may have facilitated the disease transmission despite the high 2-dose vaccination coverage in the community. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  10. Investigation of an outbreak of Salmonella enterica serovar Newport infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, W N; Gillespie, I A; Smyth, F B; Rooney, P J; McClenaghan, A; Devine, M J; Tohani, V K

    2009-10-01

    A large outbreak of Salmonella enterica serotype Newport infection occurred in Northern Ireland during September and October 2004. Typing of isolates from patients confirmed that this strain was indistinguishable from that in concurrent outbreaks in regions of England, in Scotland and in the Isle of Man. A total of 130 cases were distributed unequally across local government district areas in Northern Ireland. The epidemic curve suggested a continued exposure over about 4 weeks. A matched case-control study of 23 cases and 39 controls found a statistically significant association with a history of having eaten lettuce in a meal outside the home and being a case (odds ratio 23.7, 95% confidence interval 1.4-404.3). This exposure was reported by 57% of cases. Although over 300 food samples were tested, none yielded any Salmonella spp. Complexity and limited traceability in salad vegetable distribution hindered further investigation of the ultimate source of the outbreak.

  11. Rapid control of a chancroid outbreak: implications for Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessamine, P G; Brunham, R C

    1990-01-01

    From June to November 1987 an outbreak of chancroid occurred in Winnipeg, the first in more than 10 years; 14 people (9 men, 5 women) were involved. Nine of the cases were confirmed through culture. A control strategy was implemented in November 1987 that included presumptive treatment of genital ulcer disease with single-dose antimicrobial therapy, intensive tracing of contacts and treatment of asymptomatic sexual contacts. The origin of the outbreak was not determined, and an epidemiologic link between all the patients could not be demonstrated. The isolates were found to contain the same plasmid; this suggested that a single clone of Haemophilus ducreyi was responsible for the outbreak. Images Fig. 2 PMID:2337844

  12. Diphtheria outbreak with high mortality in northeastern Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besa, N C; Coldiron, M E; Bakri, A; Raji, A; Nsuami, M J; Rousseau, C; Hurtado, N; Porten, K

    2014-04-01

    SUMMARY A diphtheria outbreak occurred from February to November 2011 in the village of Kimba and its surrounding settlements, in Borno State, northeastern Nigeria. We conducted a retrospective outbreak investigation in Kimba village and the surrounding settlements to better describe the extent and clinical characteristics of this outbreak. Ninety-eight cases met the criteria of the case definition of diphtheria, 63 (64.3%) of whom were children aged diphtheria. None of the 98 cases received diphtheria antitoxin, penicillin, or erythromycin during their illness. The overall case-fatality ratio was 21.4%, and was highest in children aged 0-4 years (42.9%). Low rates of immunization, delayed clinical recognition of diphtheria and absence of treatment with antitoxin and appropriate antibiotics contributed to this epidemic and its severity.

  13. Water-borne epidemic outbreaks; Brotes epidemicos de transmision hidrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciranda Larrea, F.B.; Hidalgo Garcia, E.; Peiro Callizo, E.F.; Herrero Alana, G.

    1995-12-31

    The control of water-transmitted infections is one of the key aims of any Public Heath-Care System. For this paper a descriptive epidemiologic analysis has been performed using data obtained through normalized forms as well as Annual Reports of Epidemiology Units and Veterinary Inspection Records. A total of 22 outbreaks have been recorded in the period of reference. Those outbreaks affected 2.263 people. The attack-rate was of 99 people affected for each 1000 ar risk. The main agents turned out to be Norwalk virus, Rotavirus and A-Hepatitis virus. The most important risk factor was undoubtedly the ingestion of untreated or not properly treated water. The improvement of water treatment and distribution systems, the increase in the population being supplied with potable water, along with the ease of the drought have caused a significant drop in the number of water-transmitted outbreaks. (Author)

  14. Perceptions of vulnerability to a future outbreak: a study of horse managers affected by the first Australian equine influenza outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A growing body of work shows the benefits of applying social cognitive behavioural theory to investigate infection control and biosecurity practices. Protection motivation theory has been used to predict protective health behaviours. The theory outlines that a perception of a lack of vulnerability to a disease contributes to a reduced threat appraisal, which results in poorer motivation, and is linked to poorer compliance with advised health protective behaviours. This study, conducted following the first-ever outbreak of equine influenza in Australia in 2007, identified factors associated with horse managers’ perceived vulnerability to a future equine influenza outbreak. Results Of the 200 respondents, 31.9% perceived themselves to be very vulnerable, 36.6% vulnerable and 31.4% not vulnerable to a future outbreak of equine influenza. Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that managers involved in horse racing and those on rural horse premises perceived themselves to have low levels of vulnerability. Managers of horse premises that experienced infection in their horses in 2007 and those seeking infection control information from specific sources reported increased levels of perceived vulnerability to a future outbreak. Conclusion Different groups across the horse industry perceived differing levels of vulnerability to a future outbreak. Increased vulnerability contributes to favourable infection control behaviour and hence these findings are important for understanding uptake of recommended infection control measures. Future biosecurity communication strategies should be delivered through information sources suitable for the horse racing and rural sectors. PMID:23902718

  15. Perceptions of vulnerability to a future outbreak: a study of horse managers affected by the first Australian equine influenza outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schemann, Kathrin; Firestone, Simon M; Taylor, Melanie R; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Ward, Michael P; Dhand, Navneet K

    2013-07-31

    A growing body of work shows the benefits of applying social cognitive behavioural theory to investigate infection control and biosecurity practices. Protection motivation theory has been used to predict protective health behaviours. The theory outlines that a perception of a lack of vulnerability to a disease contributes to a reduced threat appraisal, which results in poorer motivation, and is linked to poorer compliance with advised health protective behaviours. This study, conducted following the first-ever outbreak of equine influenza in Australia in 2007, identified factors associated with horse managers' perceived vulnerability to a future equine influenza outbreak. Of the 200 respondents, 31.9% perceived themselves to be very vulnerable, 36.6% vulnerable and 31.4% not vulnerable to a future outbreak of equine influenza. Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that managers involved in horse racing and those on rural horse premises perceived themselves to have low levels of vulnerability. Managers of horse premises that experienced infection in their horses in 2007 and those seeking infection control information from specific sources reported increased levels of perceived vulnerability to a future outbreak. Different groups across the horse industry perceived differing levels of vulnerability to a future outbreak. Increased vulnerability contributes to favourable infection control behaviour and hence these findings are important for understanding uptake of recommended infection control measures. Future biosecurity communication strategies should be delivered through information sources suitable for the horse racing and rural sectors.

  16. Ebola virus outbreak, updates on current therapeutic strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshabrawy, Hatem A; Erickson, Timothy B; Prabhakar, Bellur S

    2015-07-01

    Filoviruses are enveloped negative-sense single-stranded RNA viruses, which include Ebola and Marburg viruses, known to cause hemorrhagic fever in humans with a case fatality of up to 90%. There have been several Ebola virus outbreaks since the first outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1976 of which, the recent 2013-2015 epidemic in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is the largest in recorded history. Within a few months of the start of the outbreak in December 2013, thousands of infected cases were reported with a significant number of deaths. As of March 2015, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been nearly 25,000 suspected cases, with 15,000 confirmed by laboratory testing, and over 10,000 deaths. The large number of cases and the high mortality rate, combined with the lack of effective Food and Drug Administration-approved treatments, necessitate the development of potent and safe therapeutic measures to combat the current and future outbreaks. Since the beginning of the outbreak, there have been considerable efforts to develop and characterize protective measures including vaccines and antiviral small molecules, and some have proven effective in vitro and in animal models. Most recently, a cocktail of monoclonal antibodies has been shown to be highly effective in protecting non-human primates from Ebola virus infection. In this review, we will discuss what is known about the nature of the virus, phylogenetic classification, genomic organization and replication, disease transmission, and viral entry and highlight the current approaches and efforts, in the development of therapeutics, to control the outbreak. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Epidemiologic analysis of sporadic Salmonella typhi isolates and those from outbreaks by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thong, K L; Cheong, Y M; Puthucheary, S; Koh, C L; Pang, T

    1994-05-01

    Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) was used to compare and analyze 158 isolates of Salmonella typhi from five well-defined outbreaks of typhoid fever in Malaysia and also isolates involved in sporadic cases of typhoid fever occurring during the same period. Digestion of chromosomal DNAs from these S. typhi isolates with the restriction endonucleases XbaI (5'-TCTAGA-3'), SpeI (5'-ACTAGT-3'), and AvrII (5'-CCTAGG-3') and then PFGE produced restriction endonuclease analysis (REA) patterns consisting of 11 to 24 DNA fragments ranging in size from 20 to 630 kbp. Analysis of the REA patterns generated by PFGE after digestion with XbaI and SpeI indicated that the S. typhi isolates obtained from sporadic cases of infection were much more heterogeneous (at least 13 different REA patterns were detected; Dice coefficient, between 0.73 and 1.0) than those obtained during outbreaks of typhoid fever. The clonal nature and the close genetic identities of isolates from outbreaks in Alor Setar, Penang, Kota Kinabalu, Johor Bahru, and Kota Bahru were suggested by the fact that only a limited number of REA patterns, which mostly differed by only a single band, were detected (one to four patterns; Dice coefficient, between 0.82 and 1.0), although a different pattern was associated with each of these outbreaks. Comparison of REA patterns with ribotyping for 18 S. typhi isolates involved in sporadic cases of infection showed a good correlation, in that 72% of the isolates were in the same group. There was no clear correlation of phage types with a specific REA pattern. We conclude that PFGE of s. typhi chromosomal DNA digested with infrequently cutting restriction endonucleases is a useful method for comparing and differentiating S. typhi isolates for epidemiological purposes.

  18. TBscore II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudolf, Frauke; Lemvik, Grethe; Abate, Ebba

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background: The TBscore, based on simple signs and symptoms, was introduced to predict unsuccessful outcome in tuberculosis patients on treatment. A recent inter-observer variation study showed profound variation in some variables. Further, some variables depend on a physician assessing...... them, making the score less applicable. The aim of the present study was to simplify the TBscore. Methods: Inter-observer variation assessment and exploratory factor analysis were combined to develop a simplified score, the TBscore II. To validate TBscore II we assessed the association between start...

  19. Additional value of typing Noroviruses in gastroenteritis outbreaks in Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koek, A. G.; Bovée, L. P. M. J.; van den Hoek, J. A. R.; Bos, A. J.; Bruisten, S. M.

    2006-01-01

    In Amsterdam, 17 of the 55 gastroenteritis (GI) outbreaks reported from January 2002 to May 2003 were confirmed to be caused by noroviruses (NV). In this study, we describe the molecular epidemiology of a group of nine outbreaks associated with a catering firm and two outbreaks, 5 months apart, in

  20. Major outbreaks of the Douglas-fir tussock moth in Oregon and California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd E. Wickman; Richard R. Mason; C.G. Thompson

    1973-01-01

    Case histories of five tussock moth outbreaks that occurred in California and Oregon between 1935 and 1965 are discussed. Information is given on the size and duration of the outbreaks, the presence of natural control agents and the damage caused. Most of the outbreaks were eventually treated with DDT. However, enough information was available from untreated portions...

  1. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Segura

    Full Text Available Adaptive limiter control (ALC and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects. We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  2. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  3. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: A discrete choice experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Determann (Domino); I.J. Korfage (Ida); A.C. Lambooij (Antoinette); M.C.J. Bliemer (Michiel); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); E.W. de Bekker-Grob (Esther)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general

  4. Guidance for Schools on the Recent Flu Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    US Department of Education, 2009

    2009-01-01

    The document provides a transcript of a conference call moderated by Bill Modzeleski, Director of the Office of Safe and Drug-Free Schools. The focus of the call was the recent outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and the United States. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) actions and recommendations to the education community were discussed. A comparison…

  5. Scrub Typhus Outbreak in a Remote Primary School, Bhutan, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tshokey, Tshokey; Graves, Stephen; Tshering, Dorji; Phuntsho, Kelzang; Tshering, Karchung; Stenos, John

    2017-08-01

    Scrub typhus in Bhutan was first reported in 2009. We investigated an outbreak of scrub typhus in a remote primary school during August-October 2014. Delay in recognition and treatment resulted in 2 deaths from meningoencephalitis. Scrub typhus warrants urgent public health interventions in Bhutan.

  6. Scrub Typhus Outbreak in a Remote Primary School, Bhutan, 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Tshokey, Tshokey; Graves, Stephen; Tshering, Dorji; Phuntsho, Kelzang; Tshering, Karchung; Stenos, John

    2017-01-01

    Scrub typhus in Bhutan was first reported in 2009. We investigated an outbreak of scrub typhus in a remote primary school during August?October 2014. Delay in recognition and treatment resulted in 2 deaths from meningoencephalitis. Scrub typhus warrants urgent public health interventions in Bhutan.

  7. Recurrent outbreaks of lumpy skin disease and its economic impact ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an acute, severe and economically important transboundary disease of cattle caused by LSD virus (LSDV). Suspected outbreaks of LSD are frequently reported in Nigeria, but laboratory diagnosis is seldom carried out and the economic impact of the disease is unknown. This study investigated ...

  8. measles case-based surveillance and outbreak response in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of the existing national technical guideline on measles case- based surveillance and outbreak response in Nigeria in ... according to the revised national measles technical guideline9. However, with the strengthening of the ... involves immediate reporting and investigating any suspected case of measles by clinicians using ...

  9. Use of Protective Gear in Bird Flu Outbreak Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    CDC's Dr. Oliver Morgan discusses how the use of masks and other protective gear impacted whether workers dealing with an outbreak of bird flu in England became sick. The paper is published in the January 2009 issue of CDC’s journal, Emerging Infectious Diseases.

  10. Legionnaires’ Disease: Clinicoradiological Comparison of Sporadic Versus Outbreak Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hafiz Rizwan Talib Hashmi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: In 2015, New York City experienced the worst outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease in the history of the city. We compare patients seen during the 2015 outbreak with sporadic cases of Legionella during the past 5 years. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 90 patients with Legionnaires’ disease, including sporadic cases of Legionella infection admitted from 2010 to 2015 (n = 55 and cases admitted during the 2015 outbreak (n = 35. Results: We saw no significant differences between the 2 groups regarding demographics, smoking habits, alcohol intake, underlying medical disease, or residence type. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that patients with sporadic case of Legionella had a longer stay in the hospital and intensive care unit as well as an increased stay in mechanical ventilation. Short-term mortality, discharge disposition, and most clinical parameters did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. Conclusions: We found no specific clinicoradiological characteristics that could differentiate sporadic from epidemic cases of Legionella . Early recognition and high suspicion for Legionnaires’ disease are critical to provide appropriate treatment. Cluster of cases should increase suspicion for an outbreak.

  11. Outbreaks of Kingella kingae Infections in Daycare Facilities

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-05-06

    Dr. Mike Miller reads an abridged version of the synopsis, Outbreaks of Kingella kingae Infections in Daycare Facilities.  Created: 5/6/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 5/7/2014.

  12. An outbreak of meningococcal meningitis in Gauteng, Spring 1996 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To describe a Neisseri.a meningitidis outbreak in Gauteng during the period 1 July to 31 December 1996. Design. A descriptive study. Setting. Patients with meningococcal meningitis in Gauteng who had been diagnosed by laboratory means, or notified during the period 1 July to 31 December 1996.

  13. Neonatal staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome: clinical and outbreak containment review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Neylon, Orla

    2012-01-31

    Staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome (SSSS) is a toxin-mediated exfoliating skin condition predominated by desquamation and blistering. Neonatal outbreaks have already been reported; however, our outbreak highlights the potential for SSSS following neonatal health promotion measures such as intra-muscular vitamin K administration and metabolic screening (heel prick) as well as effective case containment measures and the value of staff screening. Between February and June 2007, five confirmed cases of neonatal SSSS were identified in full-term neonates born in an Irish regional maternity hospital. All infants were treated successfully. Analysis of contact and environmental screening was undertaken, including family members and healthcare workers. Molecular typing on isolates was carried out. An outbreak control team (OCT) was assembled and took successful prospective steps to prevent further cases. All five Staphylococcus aureus isolates tested positive for exfoliative toxin A, of which two distinct strains were identified on pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis. Two cases followed staphylococcal inoculation during preventive measures such as intra-muscular vitamin K administration and metabolic screening (heel prick). None of the neonatal isolates were methicillin resistant. Of 259 hospital staff (70% of staff) screened, 30% were colonised with S. aureus, and 6% were positive for MRSA carriage. This is the first reported outbreak of neonatal SSSS in Ireland. Effective case containment measures and clinical value of OCT is demonstrated. Results of staff screening underlines the need for vigilance and compliance in hand disinfection strategies in maternity hospitals especially during neonatal screening and preventive procedures.

  14. Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M; Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; Jombart, Thibaut; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mills, Harriet L; Blake, Isobel M

    2017-05-26

    Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  15. Gumboro Disease Outbreaks Cause High Mortality Rates in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Infectious bursal disease is a disease of economic importance which affects all types of chickens and causes variable mortality. To establish the importance of this disease in the indigenous chickens in Kenya a comparative study of natural outbreaks in flocks of layers, broilers and indigenous chickens was done. Thirty nine ...

  16. Localised transmission hotspots of a typhoid fever outbreak in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: in a semi-urban setting in the Democratic Republic of Congo, this study aims to understand the dynamic of a typhoid fever (TF) outbreak and to assess: a) the existence of hot spots for TF transmission and b) the difference between typhoid cases identified within those hot spots and the general population in ...

  17. Outbreaks of Invasive Kingella kingae Infections in Closed Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagupsky, Pablo; Ben-Ami, Yael; Trefler, Ronit; Porat, Nurith

    2016-02-01

    To describe the results of the epidemiologic investigation of outbreaks of invasive Kingella kingae infections among attendees at daycare facilities located in 4 closed communities in Israel. The preschool-aged population of communities with clusters of Kingella cases had oropharyngeal cultures performed. K kingae isolates from infected patients and healthy contacts were genotyped by pulsed field gel electrophoresis to determine the spread of outbreak strains. The affected closed communities (3 military bases and 1 "kibbutz" commune) were characterized by tight social and family networks and intensive mingling. The outbreaks affected 9 of 51 attendees (attack rate: 17.6%) age 8-19 months (median: 12 months), within a 21-day period. Cases included skeletal system infections (n = 8) and bacteremia (n = 1); K kingae isolates were confirmed by the use of blood culture vials and selective media. Clinical presentation was mild and acute-phase reactants were usually normal or only moderately elevated. Thirty out of 55 (54.5%) asymptomatic children carried the outbreak strains. Analysis of the 3 clusters in which the entire preschool-aged population was cultured revealed that 31 of 71 (43.7%) children younger than 24 months of age were colonized with K kingae organisms compared with 8 of 105 (7.6%) older children (P presentation of invasive K kingae infections and the fastidious nature of the organism, a high index of suspicion and use of sensitive detection methods are recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Preparedness of Response to Deadly Outbreaks: Lessons Learnt ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    outbreak of Ebola in 2014 in history involving three Mano. River States of Sierra ... (SOPs) in an Ebola setting and experiences gained during ... Ebola virus. In the WHO office compound stringent measures were put in place to restrict the transmission of the Ebola virus. Hand-shakes between staff were not allowed and staff ...

  19. Outbreaks of Marek's Disease in Layer Chickens Farms in Khartoum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... that infection of MD in vaccinated adult commercial type chickens might be due to de novo infection (Super infection) with highly virulent strains despite existing considerable levels of vaccine immunity and age resistance, also vaccination failure may perhaps considered one of the important causes of disease outbreaks.

  20. Review of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    All the confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza cases that were diagnosed in Zaria at the Veterinary Teaching Hospital, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria, were reviewed in this study. The outbreaks occurred between the months of December, 2006 and March, 2007. The clinical signs and postmortem lesions ...

  1. Outbreaks of Rickettsia felis in Kenya and Senegal, 2010

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast describes the outbreak of Rickettsia felis in Kenya between August 2006 and June 2008, and in rural Senegal from November 2008 through July 2009. CDC infectious disease pathologist Dr. Chris Paddock discusses what researchers learned about this flea-borne disease and how to prevent infection.

  2. Sapovirus Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Facilities

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-06-21

    Lore Elizabeth Lee, a clinical epidemiologist at the Oregon Public Health Division, discusses sapovirus outbreaks, testing, and treatment.  Created: 6/21/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/21/2012.

  3. Measles outbreak in a poorly vaccinated region in Cameroon: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    preventable deaths in Africa; especially in unvaccinated populations. We reviewed the medical reports of the measles outbreak that occurred in Misaje, in the North west region of Cameroon from 11/03/2015 to 14/05/2015. Six measles cases ...

  4. Bark beetle outbreaks in western North America: Causes and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentz, Barbara; Logan, Jesse; MacMahon, James A.; Allen, Craig D.; Ayres, Matt; Berg, Edward E; Carroll, Allan; Hansen, Matt; Hicke, Jeff H.; Joyce, Linda A.; Macfarlane, Wallace; Munson, Steve; Negron, Jose; Paine, Tim; Powell, Jim; Raffa, Kenneth; Regniere, Jacques; Reid, Mary; Romme, Bill; Seybold, Steven J.; Six, Diana; Vandygriff, Jim; Veblen, Tom; White, Mike; Witcosky, Jeff; Wood, David J. A.

    2005-01-01

    Since 1990, native bark beetles have killed billions of trees across millions of acres of forest from Alaska to northern Mexico. Although bark beetle infestations are a regular force of natural change in forested ecosystems, several of the current outbreaks, which are occurring simultaneously across western North America, are the largest and most severe in recorded history.

  5. Timely Response and Containment of 2016 Cholera Outbreak in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    medical, environmental and laboratory staff from district to provincial level was assembled to investigate and manage the outbreak. The district rapid response team was prepared to conduct an Epidemiological investigation of the sudden increase of diarrheal cases and logistics were put aside for the first 20 patients. Case.

  6. Detecting disease outbreaks in mass gatherings using internet data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yom-Tov, Elad; Borsa, Diana; Cox, Ingemar Johansson

    2014-01-01

    algorithms that can alert to possible outbreaks of communicable diseases from Internet data, specifically Twitter and search engine queries. Methods: We extracted all Twitter postings and queries made to the Bing search engine by users who repeatedly mentioned one of nine major music festivals held...

  7. Comparing Sporadic and Outbreak-associated Foodborne Illness

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-11-04

    Dr. Eric Ebel, a veterinarian and risk analyst with USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, discusses his article on sporadic and outbreak-associated cases of foodborne illness.  Created: 11/4/2016 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 11/4/2016.

  8. Outbreak of carbapenem-resistant Providencia rettgeri in a tertiary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Carbapenem resistance in Enterobacteriaceae is often plasmid mediated, necessitating stringent infection control practices. We describe an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant Providencia rettgeri involving 4 patients admitted to intensive care and high-care units at a tertiary hospital. Clinical and demographic characteristics ...

  9. Hepatitis A outbreak on a floating restaurant in Florida, 1986.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, P W; Levine, R; Stroup, D F; Gunn, R A; Wilder, M H; Konigsberg, C

    1989-01-01

    In April and May 1986, the largest reported foodborne outbreak of hepatitis A in Florida state history occurred among patrons and employees of a floating restaurant. A total of 103 cases (97 patrons and six employees) were identified. The exposure period lasted 31 days (March 20-April 19), making this the most prolonged hepatitis A outbreak to occur in a restaurant that to date has been reported to the Centers for Disease Control. The exposure period was divided into time intervals (peak, early, late, and total) for calculation of food-specific attack rates. The authors showed that green salad was an important vehicle of transmission for each phase of the exposure period, with the highest adjusted odds ratio for the three-day peak exposure interval (March 28-30), 6.8 (p = 0.001). Non-salad pantry items and mixed bar drinks were also identified as vehicles of transmission; both were more important during the early interval of the exposure period than during the late interval. Two of six infected employees worked in the pantry and may have sequentially infected patrons. Though rare, this outbreak suggests that hepatitis A infection among employees may allow for transmission to patrons for prolonged periods of time. Prevention of such outbreaks requires prompt reporting of ill patrons with rapid identification of infected employees and correction of food handling practices.

  10. Potential causes of the pear thrips outbreak in sugar maple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack C. Schultz

    1991-01-01

    No one knows what caused the 1988 outbreak of pear thrips, Taeniothrips inconsequens (Uzel), in sugar maple, Acer saccharum Marsh., in the northeastern United States. As an entomologist and ecologist who knows even less about this insect than most of the authors of this volume, I cannot presume to understand the causes of this...

  11. Sharing Data for Global Infectious Disease Surveillance and Outbreak Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, Frank Møller; Koopmans, Marion G.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid global sharing and comparison of epidemiological and genomic data on infectious diseases would enable more rapid and efficient global outbreak control and tracking of diseases. Several barriers for global sharing exist but, in our opinion, the presumed magnitude of the problems appears larger...

  12. Outbreak of Streptococcus pneumoniae in a Psychiatric Unit

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-11-02

    Dr. Katherine Fleming-Dutra, an epidemiologist at CDC, discusses her investigation of a Streptococcus pneumoniae outbreak in a pediatric psychiatric unit.  Created: 11/2/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID); National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 11/5/2012.

  13. Analysis and Modeling of Influenza Outbreaks as Driven by Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrastarson, H. T.; Teixeira, J.; Serman, E. A.; Parekh, A.; Yeo, E.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a major source of illness, mortality and economic burden worldwide. Attributing what drives the seasonality of the outbreaks is still an unsettled problem. But in temperate regions absolute humidity conditions are a strong candidate (Shaman et al., 2010) and some studies have associated temperature conditions with influenza outbreaks. We use humidity and temperature data from NASA's AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder) instrument as well as data for influenza incidence in the US and South Africa to explore the connection between weather and influenza seasonality at different spatial scales. We also incorporate influenza surveillance data, satellite data and humidity forecasts into a numerical epidemiological prediction system. Our results give support for the role of local weather conditions as drivers of the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions. This can have implications for public health efforts where forecasting of the timing and intensity of influenza outbreaks has a great potential role (e.g., aiding management and organization of vaccines, drugs and other resources).

  14. Outbreaks of Tilapia Lake Virus Infection, Thailand, 2015-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surachetpong, Win; Janetanakit, Taveesak; Nonthabenjawan, Nutthawan; Tattiyapong, Puntanat; Sirikanchana, Kwanrawee; Amonsin, Alongkorn

    2017-06-01

    During 2015-2016, several outbreaks of tilapia lake virus infection occurred among tilapia in Thailand. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the virus from Thailand grouped with a tilapia virus (family Orthomyxoviridae) from Israel. This emerging virus is a threat to tilapia aquaculture in Asia and worldwide.

  15. Outbreaks of Tilapia Lake Virus Infection, Thailand, 2015?2016

    OpenAIRE

    Surachetpong, Win; Janetanakit, Taveesak; Nonthabenjawan, Nutthawan; Tattiyapong, Puntanat; Sirikanchana, Kwanrawee; Amonsin, Alongkorn

    2017-01-01

    During 2015?2016, several outbreaks of tilapia lake virus infection occurred among tilapia in Thailand. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the virus from Thailand grouped with a tilapia virus (family Orthomyxoviridae) from Israel. This emerging virus is a threat to tilapia aquaculture in Asia and worldwide.

  16. Measles outbreak in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, Terri B; Dayan, Gustavo H; Langidrik, Justina R; Nandy, Robin; Edwards, Russell; Briand, Kennar; Konelios, Mailynn; Marin, Mona; Nguyen, Huong Q; Khalifah, Anthony P; O'leary, Michael J; Williams, Nobia J; Bellini, William J; Bi, Daoling; Brown, Cedric J; Seward, Jane F; Papania, Mark J

    2006-04-01

    Measles is a highly contagious viral infection. Measles transmission can be prevented through high population immunity (>or=95%) achieved by measles vaccination. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), no measles cases were reported during 1989-2002; however, a large measles outbreak occurred in 2003. Reported 1-dose measles vaccine coverage among children aged 12-23 months varied widely (52-94%) between 1990 and 2000. RMI is a Pacific island nation (1999 population: 50,840). A measles case was defined as fever, rash, and cough, or coryza, or conjunctivitis, in an RMI resident between July 13 and November 7, 2003. A vaccination campaign was used for outbreak control. Of the 826 reported measles cases, 766 (92%) occurred in the capital (Majuro). There were 186 (23%) cases in infants aged or=15 years. The attack rate was highest among infants (Majuro atoll: 213 cases/1,000 infants). Among cases aged 1-14 years, 281 (59%) reported no measles vaccination before July 2003. There were 100 hospitalizations and 3 deaths. The measles H1 genotype was identified. The vaccination campaign resulted in 93% coverage among persons aged 6 months to 40 years. Interpretation Populations without endemic measles transmission can accumulate substantial susceptibility and be at risk for large outbreaks when measles virus is imported. 'Islands' of measles susceptibility may develop in infants, adults, and any groups with low vaccine coverage. To prevent outbreaks, high population immunity must be sustained by maintaining and documenting high vaccine coverage.

  17. Outbreak of a New Strain of Flu at a Fair

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-02-28

    Dr. Karen Wong, an EIS officer with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, discusses her study about flu outbreaks at agricultural fairs.  Created: 2/28/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/4/2013.

  18. Laboratory studies on the outbreak of Gangrenous Ergotism ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: The objective of this study was to investigate consumption of cereal grains grown locally as the most likely cause of the outbreak of gangrenous ergotism so that control measures could be applied. Methods: During June to August, 2001, there were reports of a large number of cases of gangrene in Arsi Zone, ...

  19. Dengue Virus 1 Outbreak in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tittarelli, Estefanía; Lusso, Silvina B; Goya, Stephanie; Rojo, Gabriel L; Natale, Mónica I; Viegas, Mariana; Mistchenko, Alicia S; Valinotto, Laura E

    2017-10-01

    The largest outbreak of dengue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, occurred during 2016. Phylogenetic, phylodynamic, and phylogeographic analyses of 82 samples from dengue patients revealed co-circulation of 2 genotype V dengue virus lineages, suggesting that this virus has become endemic to the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.

  20. PRRSV outbreak with high mortality in northern part of Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvisgaard, Lise Kirstine; Hjulsager, Charlotte Kristiane; Rathkjen, P. H.

    with high mortality rate in piglets occurred in Northern Jutland. PRRSV type 2 was detected by real-time RT-PCR in lung tissue from 10 days old piglets. The outbreak was treated by extensive vaccination with Ingelvac® PRRS MLV and strict management procedures. 6 weeks later, the mortality of liveborn...

  1. An outbreak of Psoroptic mange infestation and its management in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One cow exhibited non-pruritic, widespread alopecia all over its body and appeared to recover after being treated with injectable ivermectin acaricide. Subsequently, an outbreak of severe non-pruritic alopecia ensued in the buffalo herd at the onset of winter May 2013. Laboratory diagnosis confirmed Psoroptes mites ...

  2. Pb II

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Windows User

    This investigation describes the use of non-living biomass of Aspergillus caespitosus for removal of ... Pb(II) production has exceeded 3.5 million tons per year. It has been used in the ... This biomass was selected after screening a wide range of microbes. .... prolonged, which proved better biopolymer in metal uptake (Gadd ...

  3. NON-LTE INVERSIONS OF THE Mg ii h and k AND UV TRIPLET LINES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De la Cruz Rodríguez, Jaime; Leenaarts, Jorrit [Institute for Solar Physics, Dept. of Astronomy, Stockholm University, AlbaNova University Centre, SE-106 91 Stockholm Sweden (Sweden); Ramos, Andrés Asensio [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, E-38205, La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain)

    2016-10-20

    The Mg ii h and k lines are powerful diagnostics for studying the solar chromosphere. They have become particularly popular with the launch of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) satellite, and a number of studies that include these lines have lead to great progress in understanding chromospheric heating, in many cases thanks to the support from 3D MHD simulations. In this study, we utilize another approach to analyze observations: non-LTE inversions of the Mg ii h and k and UV triplet lines including the effects of partial redistribution. Our inversion code attempts to construct a model atmosphere that is compatible with the observed spectra. We have assessed the capabilities and limitations of the inversions using the FALC atmosphere and a snapshot from a 3D radiation-MHD simulation. We find that Mg ii h and k allow reconstructing a model atmosphere from the middle photosphere to the transition region. We have also explored the capabilities of a multi-line/multi-atom setup, including the Mg ii h and k, the Ca ii 854.2 nm, and the Fe i 630.25 lines to recover the full stratification of physical parameters, including the magnetic field vector, from the photosphere to the chromosphere. Finally, we present the first inversions of observed IRIS spectra from quiet-Sun, plage, and sunspot, with very promising results.

  4. [Waterborne outbreak of gastroenteritis transmitted through the public water supply].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy, P; Borrull, C; Palà, M; Caubet, I; Bach, P; Nuín, C; Espinet, L; Torres, J; Mirada, G

    2003-01-01

    The chlorination of public water supplies has led researchers to largely discard drinking water as a potential source of gastroenteritis outbreaks. The aim of this study was to investigate an outbreak of waterborne disease associated with drinking water from public supplies. A historical cohort study was carried out following notification of a gastroenteritis outbreak in Baqueira (Valle de Arán, Spain). We used systematic sampling to select 87 individuals staying at hotels and 67 staying in apartments in the target area. Information was gathered on four factors (consumption of water from the public water supply, sandwiches, water and food in the ski resorts) as well as on symptoms. We assessed residual chlorine in drinking water, analyzed samples of drinking water, and studied stool cultures from 4 patients. The risk associated with each water source and food type was assessed by means of relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The overall attack rate was 51.0% (76/149). The main symptoms were diarrhea 87.5%, abdominal pain 80.0%, nausea 50.7%, vomiting 30.3%, and fever 27.0%. The only factor associated with a statistically significant risk of disease was consumption of drinking water (RR = 11.0; 95% CI, 1.6-74.7). No residual chlorine was detected in the drinking water, which was judged acceptable. A problem associated with the location of the chlorinator was observed and corrected. We also recommended an increase in chlorine levels, which was followed by a reduction in the number of cases. The results of stool cultures of the four patients were negative for enterobacteria. This study highlights the potential importance of waterborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis transmitted through drinking water considered acceptable and suggests the need to improve microbiological research into these outbreaks (viruses and protozoa detection).

  5. Diarrhoeal disease outbreak in a rural area of Karnataka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhavana R Hiremath

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Acute diarrhoea is the passage of 3 or more loose or watery stools in the past 24 hours with or without dehydration. Owing to WASH strategy (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene the burden of diarrheal diseases has seen a tremendous decline over the past 2 decades. Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal infection caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio Cholerae. Objectives: 1. To document the factors responsible for the outbreak. 2. To provide recommendations for prevention and control of such outbreaks in future. Methods: After receiving verbal information from district office regarding outbreak of diarrhoeal disease (cholera in a town of Bijapur district, we independently conducted a cross sectional study in the affected area and collected information regarding no. of people affected since the outbreak, their age and sex distribution. A total of 3802 people were interviewed using a predesigned questionnaire on 28th and 29th July, 2012. We also conducted environmental investigation regarding the source of contamination and collected 2 water samples from drinking water source. Results: All the cases were clustered in the five streets, which were consuming water from contaminated two water tanks. A total of 121 cases of diarrhoea were identified affecting 3.18% of the population. Attack rate of cholera was highest (4.5% in 25-34 years age group followed by 4.22% in 15-24 years age group. Attack rates was higher among females (3.4% compared to males (2.9%. Laboratory report stated that water samples were unfit for drinking purpose. V. Cholera (Ogawa serotype was isolated from water sample. Conclusion: Consumption of contaminated water from a newly dug bore-well had led to the diarrhea outbreak. Lack of sanitation and hygiene had worsened the situation.

  6. Outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis caused by adenovirus in medical residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Carlos Pantoja; Florentino, Margarita Matias; Martinez, Irma Lopez; Lopez, Herlinda Mejia

    2009-01-01

    The present work documents an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among ophthalmology residents, its influence in the presentation of the community cases, the use of molecular techniques for its diagnosis, and the implementation of successful control measures for its containment. Isolation of the etiologic agent was achieved using cultured African green monkey kidney epithelial cells (VERO). Through molecular tests, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA sequencing, the genotype of the isolated virus was identified. The sequences obtained were aligned with data reported in the NCBI GenBank. A scheme of outbreak control measures was designed to enforce correct sanitary measures in the clinic. The statistical program, Epi info 2002, and openepi were used to determine the attack rate. The Excel Microsoft program was used to elaborate the endemic channel. Nine of the ten samples studied were isolated from the culture and identified by Adenovirus-specifc PCR. Sequencing allowed identification of Ad8 as the agent responsible for the outbreak. The attack rate was 24.39 cases per 100. The epidemic curve allowed identification of a disseminated source in the Institute of Ophthalmology "Conde de Valenciana." It was not possible to calculate the incubation periods among the cases. The endemic channel showed the presence of an epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among the patients that had been cared for at the out-patient services of the institute. One outbreak of a disseminated source caused by Ad8 was detected in the institute among its medical residents, probably associated with relaxation of the habitual sanitary measures during an epidemic of hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among the patients cared for at the institute. The proposed scheme to control the outbreak allowed for its containment and controlled the epidemic of associated cases.

  7. Shigellosis outbreak at Addis Ababa University: March-April 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragaw, Mer'awi; Tafese, Tilahun; Beyene, Zayeda; Hailemariam, Zegeye; Azaze, Aklilu; Luce, Richard; Addissie, Adamu

    2011-10-01

    Between 2006 and 2008, there have been various reports of diarrhea with blood in Ethiopia and also reports of Shigelloses outbreaks in some parts of the country. In March 2010, Addis Ababa University (AAU) Technology Campus reported occurrence of an outbreak of diarrheal illness among students. The study was conducted to identify the causative agent and the possible source of the diarrhea outbreak that occurred at Technology Campus. Active case finding and review of medical records were undertaken to characterize the outbreak. The investigation consisted of a case-control study with laboratory testing and environmental assessment. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Data were analyzed using Epi-info (v3.3.2). A total of 104 suspected cases were identified, based on the case definition, with an attack rate of 6.8%. Stool culture confirmed Shigella flexneri species in 5/11 (45%) of specimens tested. Risk factors associated with illness included eating specific foods at specific meal times. Food items served on Friday March 26, at lunch time (OR: 3.59, CI: 1.0- 12.7, p = 0.04) and on Saturday March 27, during dinner (OR: 2.89 CI: 1.0- 8.2, p = 0.04) were significantly associated with increased odds of illness. Water stored in a tank in the cafeteria had evidence of fecal contamination (fecal coliform count > 161 Mpn /100ml) and the hygiene and sanitary conditions in the cafeteria, kitchen, living area were unsatisfactory. Food-borne transmission and water contamination were suspected as the sources of infection. Regular supervision and inspection of the campus' food handling facilities and practices were recommended to improve food hygiene and sanitation. Improved water storage, correcting periodic water shortages in the latrine facility and promotion of hand washing could reduce potential future outbreaks.

  8. Twin outbreak of cholera in rural North Karnataka, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuchismita Dey

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Successive outbreaks of acute watery diarrhoea occurred in Talikoti and Harnal, located in Bijapur District of the southern Indian s0 tate of Karnataka, in July and August 2012, respectively. These outbreaks were investigated to identify the aetiology and epidemiology. Methods: Information was collected from the local population and health centres. Stool and water samples were collected from the admitted patients and their drinking water sources. Standard microbiological and PCR techniques were employed for isolation and characterization of the pathogen. Results: While 101 people (0.38% were affected in Talikoti, 200 (20.94% were affected in Harnal which is a small remote village. All age groups were affected but no death occurred. While the outbreak was smaller, longer and apparently spread by person to person contact in Talikoti, it occurred as a single source flash outbreak at Harnal. A single clone of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa biotype El Tor was isolated from the two stool samples obtained from Talikoti and subsequently from three of five stool samples obtained from Harnal indicating village to village spread of the aetiological agent. Striking similarity in antibiotic resistance profiles of these isolates with a particular strain isolated from the city of Belgaum, 250 km away, in 2010, prompted tracking the lineage of the V. cholerae isolates by DNA fingerprinting. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD fingerprinting assay helped confirm the origin of the incriminating strain to Belgaum. Interpretation & conclusions: Our study reported the first twin outbreak of cholera in two remote areas of Bijapur district, Karnataka, south India. It also indicated the need for immediate preparedness to deal with such emergencies.

  9. Diarrhoeal disease outbreak in a rural area of Karnataka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhavana R Hiremath

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Acute diarrhoea is the passage of 3 or more loose or watery stools in the past 24 hours with or without dehydration. Owing to WASH strategy (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene the burden of diarrheal diseases has seen a tremendous decline over the past 2 decades. Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal infection caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio Cholerae. Objectives: 1. To document the factors responsible for the outbreak. 2. To provide recommendations for prevention and control of such outbreaks in future. Methods: After receiving verbal information from district office regarding outbreak of diarrhoeal disease (cholera in a town of Bijapur district, we independently conducted a cross sectional study in the affected area and collected information regarding no. of people affected since the outbreak, their age and sex distribution. A total of 3802 people were interviewed using a predesigned questionnaire on 28th and 29th July, 2012. We also conducted environmental investigation regarding the source of contamination and collected 2 water samples from drinking water source. Results: All the cases were clustered in the five streets, which were consuming water from contaminated two water tanks. A total of 121 cases of diarrhoea were identified affecting 3.18% of the population. Attack rate of cholera was highest (4.5% in 25-34 years age group followed by 4.22% in 15-24 years age group. Attack rates was higher among females (3.4% compared to males (2.9%. Laboratory report stated that water samples were unfit for drinking purpose. V. Cholera (Ogawa serotype was isolated from water sample. Conclusion: Consumption of contaminated water from a newly dug bore-well had led to the diarrhea outbreak. Lack of sanitation and hygiene had worsened the situation.

  10. Epidemiology of bacterial toxin-mediated foodborne gastroenteritis outbreaks in Australia, 2001 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Fiona J; Polkinghorne, Benjamin G; Fearnley, Emily J

    2016-12-24

    Bacterial toxin-mediated foodborne outbreaks, such as those caused by Clostridium perfringens, Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus cereus, are an important and preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Due to the short incubation period and duration of illness, these outbreaks are often under-reported. This is the first study to describe the epidemiology of bacterial toxin-mediated outbreaks in Australia. Using data collected between 2001 and 2013, we identify high risk groups and risk factors to inform prevention measures. Descriptive analyses of confirmed bacterial toxin-mediated outbreaks between 2001 and 2013 were undertaken using data extracted from the OzFoodNet Outbreak Register, a database of all outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease investigated by public health authorities in Australia. A total of 107 laboratory confirmed bacterial toxin-mediated outbreaks were reported between 2001 and 2013, affecting 2,219 people, including 47 hospitalisations and 13 deaths. Twelve deaths occurred in residents of aged care facilities. Clostridium perfringens was the most commonly reported aetiological agent (81 outbreaks, 76%). The most commonly reported food preparation settings were commercial food preparation services (51 outbreaks, 48%) and aged care facilities (42 outbreaks, 39%). Bacterial toxin outbreaks were rarely associated with food preparation in the home (2 outbreaks, 2%). In all outbreaks, the primary factor contributing to the outbreak was inadequate temperature control of the food. Public health efforts aimed at improving storage and handling practices for pre-cooked and re-heated foods, especially in commercial food preparation services and aged care facilities, could help to reduce the magnitude of bacterial toxin outbreaks.

  11. STUDY OF RAPID FORMATION OF A δ SUNSPOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 2 C7.4 FLARE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION OBSERVATIONS OF THE NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haimin; Liu Chang; Wang Shuo; Deng Na; Xu Yan; Jing Ju; Cao Wenda

    2013-01-01

    Rapid, irreversible changes of magnetic topology and sunspot structure associated with flares have been systematically observed in recent years. The most striking features include the increase of the horizontal field at the polarity inversion line (PIL) and the co-spatial penumbral darkening. A likely explanation of the above phenomenon is the back reaction to the coronal restructuring after eruptions: a coronal mass ejection carries the upward momentum while the downward momentum compresses the field lines near the PIL. Previous studies could only use low-resolution (above 1'') magnetograms and white-light images. Therefore, the changes are mostly observed for X-class flares. Taking advantage of the 0.''1 spatial resolution and 15 s temporal cadence of the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report in detail the rapid formation of sunspot penumbra at the PIL associated with the C7.4 flare on 2012 July 2. It is unambiguously shown that the solar granulation pattern evolves to an alternating dark and bright fibril structure, the typical pattern of penumbra. Interestingly, the appearance of such a penumbra creates a new δ sunspot. The penumbral formation is also accompanied by the enhancement of the horizontal field observed using vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. We explain our observations as being due to the eruption of a flux rope following magnetic cancellation at the PIL. Subsequently, the re-closed arcade fields are pushed down toward the surface to form the new penumbra. NLFFF extrapolation clearly shows both the flux rope close to the surface and the overlying fields

  12. Early outbreak detection by linking health advice line calls to water distribution areas retrospectively demonstrated in a large waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pär Bjelkmar

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the winter and spring of 2011 a large outbreak of cryptosporidiosis occurred in Skellefteå municipality, Sweden. This study summarizes the outbreak investigation in terms of outbreak size, duration, clinical characteristics, possible source(s and the potential for earlier detection using calls to a health advice line. Methods The investigation included two epidemiological questionnaires and microbial analysis of samples from patients, water and other environmental sources. In addition, a retrospective study based on phone calls to a health advice line was performed by comparing patterns of phone calls between different water distribution areas. Results Our analyses showed that approximately 18,500 individuals were affected by a waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Skellefteå in 2011. This makes it the second largest outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Europe to date. Cryptosporidium hominis oocysts of subtype IbA10G2 were found in patient and sewage samples, but not in raw water or in drinking water, and the initial contamination source could not be determined. The outbreak went unnoticed to authorities for several months. The analysis of the calls to the health advice line provides strong indications early in the outbreak that it was linked to a particular water treatment plant. Conclusions We conclude that an earlier detection of the outbreak by linking calls to a health advice line to water distribution areas could have limited the outbreak substantially.

  13. Outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease associated with person to person spread in hotels and restaurants.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonnell, R J

    1995-09-15

    Twenty-eight outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease, reported as being transmitted mainly by the person to person route, were identified in association with retail catering premises, such as hotels, restaurants, and public houses, in England and Wales between 1992 and 1994. Five thousand and forty-eight people were at risk in these outbreaks and 1234 were affected. Most of the outbreaks (over 90%) occurred in hotels. Small round structured viruses were the most commonly detected pathogens. Diarrhoea and vomiting were common symptoms and most of the outbreaks occurred in the summer months. Control measures to contain infectious individuals and improved hygiene measures are necessary to contain such outbreaks.

  14. Danish Neutrality and Foreign Trade after the Outbreak of World War II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Mogens Rostgaard

    2009-01-01

    Artiklen omhandler de problemer udbruddet af Anden Verdenskrig i september 1939 skabte for den danske udenrigshandel, og om den store politiske uenighed krigen  mellem den socialdemokratiske-radikale regering og Venstre og Landbrugsraadet som krigen førte til....

  15. Reported waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease in Australia are predominantly associated with recreational exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Katie; Kirk, Martyn; Sinclair, Martha; Hall, Robert; Leder, Karin

    2010-10-01

    To examine the frequency and circumstances of reported waterborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Australia. Examination of data reported to OzFoodNet between 2001 and 2007. During these seven years, 6,515 gastroenteritis outbreaks were reported to OzFoodNet, most of which were classified as being transmitted person-to-person or from an unknown source. Fifty-four (0.83%) outbreaks were classified as either 'waterborne' or 'suspected waterborne', of which 78% (42/54) were attributed to recreational water and 19% (10/54) to drinking water. Of the drinking water outbreaks, implicated pathogens were found on all but one occasion and included Salmonella sp. (five outbreaks), Campylobacter jejuni (three outbreaks) and Giardia (one outbreak). There have been few waterborne outbreaks detected in Australia, and most of those reported have been associated with recreational exposure. However, there are difficulties in identifying and categorising gastroenteritis outbreaks, as well as in obtaining microbiological and epidemiological evidence, which can result in misclassification or underestimation of water-associated events. Gastroenteritis surveillance data show that, among reported water-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks in Australia, recreational exposure is currently more common than a drinking water source. However, ongoing surveillance for waterborne outbreaks is important, especially as drought conditions may necessitate replacement of conventional drinking water supplies with alternative water sources, which could incur potential for new health risks. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.

  16. Legionnaires' Disease Outbreaks and Cooling Towers, New York City, New York, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzhenry, Robert; Weiss, Don; Cimini, Dan; Balter, Sharon; Boyd, Christopher; Alleyne, Lisa; Stewart, Renee; McIntosh, Natasha; Econome, Andrea; Lin, Ying; Rubinstein, Inessa; Passaretti, Teresa; Kidney, Anna; Lapierre, Pascal; Kass, Daniel; Varma, Jay K

    2017-11-01

    The incidence of Legionnaires' disease in the United States has been increasing since 2000. Outbreaks and clusters are associated with decorative, recreational, domestic, and industrial water systems, with the largest outbreaks being caused by cooling towers. Since 2006, 6 community-associated Legionnaires' disease outbreaks have occurred in New York City, resulting in 213 cases and 18 deaths. Three outbreaks occurred in 2015, including the largest on record (138 cases). Three outbreaks were linked to cooling towers by molecular comparison of human and environmental Legionella isolates, and the sources for the other 3 outbreaks were undetermined. The evolution of investigation methods and lessons learned from these outbreaks prompted enactment of a new comprehensive law governing the operation and maintenance of New York City cooling towers. Ongoing surveillance and program evaluation will determine if enforcement of the new cooling tower law reduces Legionnaires' disease incidence in New York City.

  17. Positive impact of infection prevention on the management of nosocomial outbreaks at an academic hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dik, Jan-Willem H; Sinha, Bhanu; Lokate, Mariëtte; Lo-Ten-Foe, Jerome R; Dinkelacker, Ariane G; Postma, Maarten J; Friedrich, Alexander W

    2016-10-01

    Infection prevention (IP) measures are vital to prevent (nosocomial) outbreaks. Financial evaluations of these are scarce. An incremental cost analysis for an academic IP unit was performed. On a yearly basis, we evaluated: IP measures; costs thereof; numbers of patients at risk for causing nosocomial outbreaks; predicted outbreak patients; and actual outbreak patients. IP costs rose on average yearly with €150,000; however, more IP actions were undertaken. Numbers of patients colonized with high-risk microorganisms increased. The trend of actual outbreak patients remained stable. Predicted prevented outbreak patients saved costs, leading to a positive return on investment of 1.94. This study shows that investments in IP can prevent outbreak cases, thereby saving enough money to earn back these investments.

  18. Two nursing home outbreaks of respiratory infection with Legionella sainthelensi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, M; Simor, A E; Mandell, L; Krueger, P; McArthur, M; James, M; Walter, S; Richardson, E; Lingley, M; Stout, J; Stronach, D; McGeer, A

    1999-05-01

    To describe outbreaks of infection caused by Legionella sainthelensi occurring in older residents of two nursing homes and to determine risk factors for the development of infection. Descriptive epidemiology and a case-control study. Two nursing homes (140 beds and 254 beds in nursing homes A and B, respectively) located in southern Ontario, Canada, experiencing outbreaks of respiratory tract infection in July and August 1994. Case-residents of the two nursing homes who met clinical and laboratory criteria for Legionella infection. Control-residents were defined as those who were in the homes during the outbreaks and were asymptomatic. Active surveillance was conducted in both nursing homes to identify symptomatic residents. Residents with fever or respiratory tract symptoms had nasopharyngeal swabs taken for viral antigen detection and culture, urine for Legionella antigen detection, and acute and convalescent serology for viruses, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydia pneumoniae, and Legionella. Chest X-rays were performed, and an attempt was made to obtain blood and sputum cultures. Water samples from shower heads, faucets, and air conditioning units were collected for Legionella culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. A case-control study was done to assess possible risk factors for legionellosis. Twenty-nine cases -- 17 in nursing home A; 12 in nursing home B - were identified. Four (14%) case-residents had documented pneumonia and four case-residents died. Univariate analysis revealed that a history of stroke (odds ratio (OR) 2.3 (95% CI, 1.0-5.3)), eating pureed food (OR 4.6 (95% CI, 1.6-12.7)), and having fluids administered with medication (OR 2.5 (95% CI, 1.0-5.9)) were significant risk factors. Cases were less likely to wear dentures (OR .4 (95% CI, .2-.9)) or to eat solid food (OR .3, (95% CI, .1-.6)). Only eating pureed food remained significant in a multivariable analysis (OR 4.6 (95% CI, 1.6-13.0, P = .01)). This report describes outbreaks of

  19. Gastroenteritis: a waterborne outbreak affecting 1600 people in a small Danish town.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, E; Mygind, O; Rasmussen, B; Rønne, T

    1994-10-01

    To examine (i) the extent of illness caused by contamination of a waterworks with waste water due to overflow, and its correlation with precipitation; (ii) the potential secondary spread; (iii) economic losses due to sick leave. A historical follow up study with structured postal questionnaires. A small community on the outskirts of greater Copenhagen at the end of 1991 and the beginning of 1992. The main study group comprised all 703 households supplied by the waterworks (response rate: 89% of households). There was a control group of 200 randomly chosen households in neighbouring communities with a different water supply source (response rate: 64% of households). A day care group of all 149 children (response rate: 78%) and 30 teachers (response rate: 83%) who lived in central Copenhagen, but spent the day in four day care centres supplied by the waterworks, and members of their household was also studied. Altogether 1455 people (88% of respondents in the main study group) reported having had symptoms of gastroenteritis, particularly diarrhoea (83%) and vomiting (55%). In the control group, 10% had had symptoms of gastroenteritis. The onset of episodes with diarrhoea correlated well with precipitation (Spearman's correlation coefficient: 0.75; p = 0.0002). The secondary attack rate in household contacts was 12%. No pathogens were found. Affected people stayed home from work for a total of 1658 days. The cost of loss of production because of sick leave amounted to 1,600,000 Danish kroner (180,000 pounds). The outbreak caused extensive illness correlated with precipitation, showed secondary spread, and was associated with major economic losses. Increased awareness among local physicians and waterworks personnel of the possibility of contamination of the water could have led to earlier intervention and reduced the extent of illness. Outbreaks are often caused by several factors, many of a technical nature, which in this case acted together. It is recommended that

  20. [A norovirus-borne outbreak caused by contaminated bottled spring water in a school, Zhejiang province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Ji-chuan; Lin, Jun-fen; Gao, Jie; Yao, Wen-ting; Wen, Dong; Liu, Guang-tao; Han, Jian-kang; Ma, Hui-lai; Zhang, Li-jie; Zhu, Bao-ping

    2011-08-01

    To study a local hospital reported acute gastroenteritis in a boarding school on its source of infection, mode of transmission and risk factors of the infection. A suspected case was defined as who had developed diarrhea (≥ 3 times/day) or vomiting among teachers or students of the school, during April 19 - 30, 2010. A confirmed case was from a probable case plus tested positive for norovirus in stool specimens by using RT-PCR. Stool specimens of cases and environmental specimens were collected for laboratory diagnosis. In a case-control study, we compared exposures to sources of bottled water, consumption of bottled water, and hygienic habits of 220 probable or confirmed cases from April 21 - 23 in the peak of the outbreak, together with another 220 controls, with frequency-matched by school grade. 20.3% of the 1536 students but none of the teachers developed the disease. 98.6% of the cases (n = 217) and 85.5% (n = 188) of the controls had drunk bottled water in the classroom (OR(M-H) = 12.3, 95%CI: 3.7 - 40.9). 47.9% (n = 104) of the cases and 41.5% (n = 78) of the controls had drunk unboiled bottled water in classroom (OR(M-H) = 3.8, 95%CI: 1.5 - 9.6). 47.9% (n = 104) of the cases and 48.4% (n = 91) of the controls had drunk bottled mixed water (boiled and unboiled) in the classroom (OR(M-H) = 2.8, 95%CI: 1.1 - 7.0). Stool specimens from 3 cases and one bottle of uncovered bottled water in classroom showed positive of having norovirus genotype II. Coliforms was cultured much higher rates than standard deviations in the bottled water. The factory making the bottled water was not licensed or having strict disinfection facilities. Bottled spring water contaminated by norovirus was responsible for this outbreak.